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A rare bleeding disorder leads scientists to uncover an unusual blood component that might be common to us all.
A rare bleeding disorder leads scientists to uncover an unusual blood component that might be common to us all.
Researchers look to the emerging phenomenon of "crowdfunding" to pay for their work
People living on islands in the Norwegian Sea suffer from an unusually high rate of certain genetic diseases and health issues, making the population ripe for research.
Researchers working in war-torn countries find hints to the molecular roots of posttraumatic stress disorder.
ALS patients take their fate into their own hands, self-administering an unapproved chemical and collating their results online.
With the help of a mother, one researcher uncovered a common link between autism and a devastating bone disease.
Pathogens lurk in illegal wildlife products confiscated at US airports.
Two researchers are trying to train bees to sniff out tuberculosis.
Forget stamps: one bioengineer amasses broken artificial joints to learn why they failed and how to build better ones.
By helping Mongolians cultivate an understanding of their native insect fauna, scientists hope to protect the country's unique yet fragile ecosystems.


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Let Choppy Bust Your Bracket
Let me do your homework for you. I've come up with a list of Upsets that WILL happen. By "will," I mean probably not likely, but I'm going to stand at the top of Cowboys Stadium and shout to the world that I got them right if they come true.
Five Things: Goodbye Big East, Buckeyes Win Big Ten, And West Coast Blues
Yesterday was a relatively drama-free Selection Sunday. Joe Lunardi was a perfect 68 for 68, as Middle Tennessee State, St. Mary's, Boise State, and La Salle claimed the final spots in the field. Louisville, Gonzaga, Kansas, and Indiana earned the top seeds.
Louisville Top Overall; Kansas, Indiana, Gonzaga Also No. 1 Seeds
Louisville earned the top overall seed in the NCAA tournament Sunday, while Kansas, Indiana and Gonzaga also received No. 1s after a topsy-turvy regular season and another round of weekend upsets.
Wells Leads Maryland To 75-62 Win Over Wake Forest
GREENSBORO, N.C. (AP) — Dez Wells scored 14 of his 21 points in the second half and Maryland beat pesky Wake Forest 75-62 on Thursday night in the first round of the Atlantic Coast Conference tournament.
NC State Rolls Past Virginia Tech 80-63 In ACCs
GREENSBORO, N.C. (AP) — Richard Howell kept attacking the rim and the boards alongside C.J. Leslie, while Lorenzo Brown was the transition-powering point guard eager to take on a tough defensive assignment against the Atlantic Coast Conference's player of the year.
Odds Of Picking A Perfect Bracket? 9.2 Quintillion To 1
If you knew nothing about basketball and randomly filled out a bracket, your odds would be 9.2 quintillion to one.
Joe Mihalich And Niagara A Perfect Match
Joe Mihalich's Niagara Purple Eagles have just eliminated Siena in the quarterfinals of the MAAC basketball tournament. Siena senior O.D. Anosike has played his last collegiate game.
Five Things: Belmont Punches Ticket, A Buzzer Beater, And Hoosiers Become Big 10 Champs
The Big dance is right around the corner and teams are making strides towards being part of it. It all started this weekend with a buzzer beater, Kentucky barely holding on and Belmont joining the tourney. A wild weekend indeed!
Five Things: A Renewed Rivalry, Niagara Eagles Eliminated, And Elite Stag Defense
One more team will join the big dance by the services of a popular tourney! The Metro Atlantic Athletic Tournament got under way and the stand out defense of the Rider stags kick started it in nice way! Along with other teams eliminated, important events you can't miss!
Kentucky Ends 14-Year Drought, Wins National Championship
Doron Lamb scored 22 points, and Kentucky won its eighth national championship, holding off Kansas for a 67-59 victory Monday night.
Kentucky's Bench Comes Up Big Against Louisville
The top-seeded Wildcats will face the winner of Ohio State-Kansas on Monday night, after Kentucky beat Louisville 69-61 on Saturday.
Big Comeback Leads Kansas To 64-62 Win Over Ohio State
Kansas (32-6) plays Kentucky in the final Monday.

subset: commoncrawl


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Open City
The Strange Beauty of L.A.'s Abandoned Sofas
The city's streets are fertile ground for cast-off couches. Just ask photographer Andrew Ward
Read more -
The Kobe Factor
The show put on by the Laker superstar, whose 19th season is coming to an early end because of a torn rotator cuff, remains a solo act
Read more -
Amy Sklar Honors Her Mother's Memory One Outfit at a Time
The interior designer finds healing in clothing
Read more -
For Most College Football Players, the NFL is a Pipe Dream
Excelling at your sport is one thing. Making it to the Pros is another. Courtney Morgan wants athletes to embrace the difference
Read more -
The Surprising Wisdom of Waze
The purpose of the straight-talking app was to beat traffic. It became an unexpected guide to the city
Read more -
What it Means to Come Home When Home is L.A.
There's no point stealing back into the city when there are so many rituals for celebrating a return
Read more -
The Good Soldier: Mikal Vega
With the VA under fire, one wounded warrior turns to the healing arts in his recovery
Read more


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City Councilor James Diossa has by far the largest war chest among the 4 Central Falls mayoral candidates who have filed updated campaign finance reports. Five hopefuls are set to square off November 6.
Five mayoral candidates have qualified for the November 6 mayoral election in Central Falls, according to the office of Secretary of State Ralph Mollis.
Here's the order of the hopefuls as they appear on the ballot:
Bruce M. CORRIGAN James A. DIOSSA Thomas LAZIEH Joseph P. MORAN, III Tia RISTAINO-SIEGEL
Bruce M. CORRIGAN
James A. DIOSSA
Thomas LAZIEH
Joseph P. MORAN, III
Tia RISTAINO-SIEGEL
State Revenue director Rosemary Booth Gallogly hope to finalize the November 6 presidential election as the date for choosing a successor to Charles Moreau.
As Charles Moreau yields the mayor's office in Central Falls in advance of a plea deal with federal prosecutors, city councilor James Diossa is seriously considering a run for mayor, sources tell RIPR.
State Education Commissioner Deborah Gist holds a public meeting tonight in Central Falls. She'll take questions from the community while seated alongside a panel of local school leaders.
Numerous concerns have emerged about the tiny school district in the wake of the Central Falls bankruptcy. The school department has agreed to merge some services with the city including finance, human resources and sports.


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Unbiased Reviews by Real People
First off, the box shows using a remote AND a nunchuck:False. By the packaging, I thought, maybe I'd use the remote to cast and control the rod, and the nunchuck to reel in. Wrong. You use the remote and only the remote, and not even really like normal "casting" motions. I owned "Pro-Fishing" for my PS2, released around 2002 and it's more exciting than this. You'd have to hook the fish and follow it thoughout the fight (if it was a keeper) to land the fish. Now granted, this is basically an ad for Rapala, but at least they should have put some thought into it beyond advertising their product (or, priced it below $10 for an even trade). For example, as each level loads, you are "quizzed" on everything Rapala, smart marketing/brainwashing. However, I didn't realize that you HAVE to answer these correctly in order to unlock certain features of the game. One "new" feature is actually being able to drive the boat to different locations. No wait, that's also a bad feature because it doesn't default to the driver's view when you switch to drivers mode (away from fishing mode), so often you're in a cozy little cove, looking down at the boat, trying in vain to steer it out---looking backwards at the person driving the boat (you?) with the guy saying, "I wouldn't fish there". (no reasons given and usually wrong) Oh yeah, being a WII game, it is kind of cool being able to cast with the remote, but evidently your actual force or control has little or nothing to do with aiming or anything, really. Throughout the game, you must select the correct Rapela line/lure, and be educated on their product while doing so. So, you finally cast (in areas where your "guide" says, "There's not any fish here..") and can actually watch your lure sink down between flat layers of "weeds". None of the lures seem to take anything into account regarding reeling; either they float or sink..usually to the bottom (in spite of the ad stating how precisely you can regulate the depth depending on your reeling). All the fish basically look the same size (and incredibly Nintendo64ish). At least in my old fishing game, you'd see whoppers or you could real in before a little guppy hit your hook. And, in my old fishing game, you could feel the difference between the sizes. In this game, it's like they just created a few 'rumbles' for interest. You have no idea what the fish is doing, except your guide will say "go left--she's pulling left, let her run" and yes, the remote IS responsive to this...you can aim the remote left, right up or down. After reeling (you can adjust drag during the "fight" but it doesn't seem to do anything) and reeling, either you'll have the luck of your player just landing the trophy, or you'll be presented with a graphic of a fast moving fish and a small target (net...obviously NOT a Frabill) and you'll have to accurately aim the remote and precisely press whatever button combination comes up on the screen which includes ALL of the buttons on the remote---while aiming...in about 20 attempts, I've been able to do this maybe twice (the larger the fish, the more buttons to push). Or, you'll simply be close to the boat, with little to no tension and, "Oh! The fish threw the hook." After the 20 or so attempts, and giving this game it's fair amount of play (8 hours or more), I have no desire to play it again. The graphics aren't great, the play and the response of the remote aren't truly factored in (seem more like afterthoughts) and it's just plain boring. Again, by comparison, my boyfriend spent days competing in the tournaments in the PS2 Pro-Fishing game and we'd just pop it in for fun. It was exciting and fun watching someone stalking a monster and successfully landing it. This holds none of that.


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Stay optimistic and smell fantastic with this fragrance by Paul Smith, inspired by youthful enthusiasm and energy. Optimistic male opens with a vibrant note of mandarin and a kick of black pepper. A heart of clean, crisp marine blends beautifully with the sweet, soft geranium flower. At the base rests the classic Paul Smith mix of aromatic and woody ingredients, combined with vetiver, cedar and the sensuality of amber. The 50ml eau de toilette comes in a bottle inspired by the Paul smith multi stripe, transformed in a new ribbon design.
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The Dakota Watches Genuine Leather iPhone 4 Case is compatible with iPhone 4 and iPhone 4S. The Dakota Watches Genuine Shrunken Leather iPhone 4S Case features a magnetic closure, screen and body protection, and a card and hidden pocket.


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The digital world has taken over our lives. So much so that we can't escape being constantly connected 100%. We text, we tweet, we carry cell phones like they're life lines. We check our e-mails, our Facebook pages, our online status six different ways. And then we start again. We've known for a while now that the digital world – great as it is – could be addictive. Overwhelming. An obsession. A leash. A prison.Some people are breaking out. Letting go. Staying off. Travel writer Pico … [Read more...]
Reason why Men struggle to understand Women Moods: Our Brain Systems dont work
Researchers at LWL-University Hospital in Bochum, Germany took 22 male volunteers - all single and all between the ages of 21 and 52 - to do an interesting study. They were asked to view photographs showing just the eyes of a person, while undergoing an MRI scan. Each photograph showed an emotion and choose between two words given to them that best described the mood of the person they were looking at. They weren't given any other information.The idea was to see if these male subjects could … [Read more...]
What are the top 10 things about Life that we ought to be informed about
If you wanted to know just 10 most important things to lead a better life, what would they be? Here are attempts of some folks. Very interesting. Read Quote of Justin Freeman's answer to Life: What are the top 10 things that we should be informed about, in life? on Quora Read Quote of James Walker's answer to Life: What are the top 10 things that we should be informed about, in life? on QuoraRead Quote of Jay Bazzinotti's answer to Life: What are the top 10 things that we should be informed … [Read more...]
Girls Dating in India: Story of a Girl who stopped Dating and Switched off her Facebook Account
Can the Indian population accept dating - open dating - easily? I am not talking about the "Aunties & Uncles" or the religious and culturally defined mindsets. I am talking about the normal college going men AND WOMEN.Apparently, no. Here is personal story of a girl who used to date freely and openly. She would interact and mix with guys easily - actions predicated on trust that the other person will have maturity. But it wasn't so. Now, she is off the dating map and has switched off … [Read more...]
Sophie, paralyzed from Waist down, discusses how sensation of sex has changed her
Sophie Morgan has been paralyzed waist down in 2003 at age 18. Now, she is 28. She thought that she will live a life of celibacy and will not have any experience or joy of sex. But things are different now. She not only has had the experience, but she enjoys it and also shares her joy with others. It is indeed a miracle for someone who has lost all feeling in her body waist down to have indulged in and also enjoy the sensation of sex just like others do. You see, almost ten years ago, when I … [Read more...]


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Brushpopper Wide tree
Trail SaddlesFor Sale on eBay Manufacturer: Abetta
Model: Brushpopper Wide tree
Category: Trail Saddles
Purchase: I bought this saddle from Chick's Saddlery for 399.99. I needed a lighter weight saddle. Based on reviews and cost this one seemed to fit the bill.
Likes: This is the most comfortable saddle I have ever ridden in. I was a "leather snob" waisted so many years riding in uncomfortable saddles. Out of necessity, I had to buy something light weight. This saddle is well made, easy to clean up and has all the things needed to make for a comfortable enjoyable ride for both me and my horse. He loves it too!!! I should have bought one years ago. I will never buy another kind. LOVE IT!!
Dislikes: There is nothing!!
Quality: I am not a small person and my horse is very wide even for a quarter horse. I was afraid I would not feel safe in a synthetic saddle. Not true. The stitching is well done, the saddle is sturdy, and I ordered the wide tree which fit my horse very well. It is almost like it was made for him. The stirrups are comfortable and also light weight but tough. The saddle also has plenty of options for attaching different types of saddle bags. The memory foam is amazing.
Summary: I would recommend this saddle to anyone. I plan on buying another one for my husband. This is an amazing saddle.
Rating: 5
Author: Terri C
Date: 2010-03-28
Usefulness Rating: 4.79167 out of 5.
24 reader(s) voted.
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Martin Saddlery All Around Saddle Trail Saddles


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Risk, espionage and financial fraud... are attention grabbing lines in the press today involving high visibility incidents affecting thousands of innocent victims and potentially millions of dollars in damage.
These incidents are hardly confidence inspiring for corporate CEOs and thier respective boards of directors.
Employees need simple and secure access to their applications.
While many of these apps are still on premise, a growing number have moved to the cloud or are native apps on tablets and smart phones. Okta provides a modern, cloud based Identity and Access Management Solution to connect employees, partners, customers and devices.
More than 50% of business transactions are processed in batches. Business relies on error-free, cost-effective, timely, and efficient batch processing, capable of meeting the changing business demands. BMC Control-M solution will enable you to schedule and manage everything - down to the very last platform and application - from a single control point.
Welcome to the New IT - MyIT. The IT experience is changingand the consumerisation of IT is no longer just a buzzword. Employees are expecting of corporate services the access and convenience they experience at home, demanding more choice, more options, and more flexibility in the technology that they use at work.
BOMGAR solution supports remote desktops, servers, network devices, smartphones and systems outside the network – all from one screen, even if they are behind firewalls that you don't control!


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2012 Ford F-250 Super Duty
Choose Ford F-250 Super Duty Style:
C/D Overview:
A beefier frame and uprated diesel mean these rigs can now tow up to 17,500 pounds. Available in an astounding array of configurations, these range from coveralls work truck to black-tie-rodeo King Ranch. The Super Duty is tough but shows a sensitive side with great seats and a hushed interior.
Base Price: $30,060 - $51,520
Muscular drivetrains and brawny chassis can withstand a beating, damn near opulent in higher spec.
Tough to maneuver, ride is tiresome for daily use, brash styling isn't for everybody.
What's New
Redesigned for 2008; diesel output jumps by 10 horses and 65 pound-feet for increased towing for '12.
Behind The Wheel
The diesel returns respectable fuel economy for the segment, and it's quiet, too. Drives like a truck, with slow steering and a harsh ride. Surprised?


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January 3rd, 2008
"Are you happy?" I ask her. My face is pressed to my knees as we sit on the brick wall at the back of the school, and I can feel her shift a little at my side. I lift my head and look down at her.
She tilts her head and smiles up at me like I'm an old friend of hers. "Of course I am, you goof."
No, I want to tell her, No you're not. How can you be? I feel sick, dizzy, and like the world's going to crumble beneath us as I smile back and say, "Good." My heart is caught in my throat, and I try my hardest to swallow it, but it won't go back down.
- - -
August 29th, 2007
I met her today in my American Literature class. I don't think I've ever met anyone like her before. She's in my Spanish class and Biology class. My lunch period too.
She thinks I'm funny. And she likes my hair.
September 12th, 2007
She always laughs at my jokes, my stupid words and reasons, my bad metaphors, and my goofy laugh. That's what I am; I'm her giant goofball. I tower over her nearly a foot in height and my feet are seven sizes bigger than hers. If we were to ever hold hands hers would probably get lost in mine. They're so tiny, her hands are.
September 21st, 2007
We lie out on the sidewalk in front of the school just staring up at the clouds, and we tell each other stories of when we were younger and more naïve. Sometimes I catch myself staring at her when she's just smiling to herself, and dreaming while she's awake. It's a soft smile, an unbreakable and genuine one. Sometimes I stare at her lips and imagine mine pressed against them.
We've known each other for a month, but I feel like I've known her forever.
October 5th, 2007
I have these days where I don't feel real. They're days when my feet are weighted blocks, and my head is an empty balloon. I always think to myself it's not fair that he gets to hold her and kiss her. He doesn't deserve her. I wish she could see that.
Why can't she see that?
October 11th, 2007
She thinks it was sweet of me to give her a strawberry cupcake on her birthday.
I don't think she liked that I managed to get more than half of the students in the cafeteria to sing happy birthday to her (but part of me thinks she secretly appreciated it, even though she wiped pink icing on my cheek).
Behind my cheesy grin I frown when he finally pulls up in his car at the end of the day to pick her up at the front of the school. He kisses and caresses her in the front seat and whispers, "Happy birthday" to her before they drive away.
I don't want to admit that I'm jealous of him touching her like that.
October 23rd, 2007
My dad doesn't understand why I have to talk to her over the phone in my car every night. He thinks it's weird and his eyebrows furrow in puzzlement. My mom on the other hand thinks it's cute, and she always wonders when she'll get to meet this girl I've been talking about for months.
My phone is a heavy rock in my hand and it echoes her voice, her umms, her sighs, and her giggles. When we finally hang up my face is lost in the curve of my elbow, and my body slumps back against the driver's seat. I miss her voice already.
What is she doing to me?
October 31st, 2007
We lie in my driveway and I silently ask the stars not to let this moment end. We both see our breath swirl around above us and dance in the cold air. I feel her smiling that genuine smile. She's even smiling with her chocolate brown eyes; she thinks it's funny we both have a birthday in October.
A bag of Halloween candy fills in the space between us on the pavement and we're both covered in dark makeup and handmade costumes for the occasion. My house is aglow with black and orange decorations, and when she first saw them she couldn't believe her eyes.
My parents love her. But they don't know that she can't be mine.
November 3rd, 2007
I bury my head between my knees and try to block out this envy. My guts are missing and I can't tell her what's been hacking away at my mind for months now, and leaving me with the emptiest feeling I have ever felt.
November 25th, 2007
She's noticed my weird behavior; I've been trying so hard to cover it all up, but I'm slipping now.
She asks me to go out with her. As friends, of course.
I sit anxiously at the table of the smoothie shop, and before she sits down she hands me a tall, plastic cup filled to the brim with a pink frothy liquid. I wonder why we had never come here together before. Ever. Especially when it was warmer out; now it was chilly and not smoothie season. She sets down her own plastic cup on the table before placing the cup holder down beside it. She bought two hot chocolates too.
We sip at our smoothies and occasionally our hot chocolates to warm up. I search for abandoned words on the table, but I don't see any. She's waiting for me to tell her what's wrong.
I stare at her blankly, unsurely.
I reassure her with a warm smile.
December 24th, 2007
It's three-thirty in the morning and I can't stop thinking about her. I can't breathe and my body aches all over, and this sick feeling is heavy in my stomach. I think this is the first time I've ever really cried over a girl, and I feel so stupid for doing it. It's not like I've lost her; she was never mine to begin with.
She's not even trying to do this to me.
December 31st, 2007
I don't know how to tell her where I would be without her. Where I would be without her phone calls, her questions, her favorites, her not-so-secretive-secrets, her laugh, the way she sometimes sounds so distant on the phone, the way she talks so closely to me, our conversations, her smile, her essence, her being here.
I want to tell her, but I won't. I try convincing myself that I am strong, a tightened rope, a panther's back. I am fortified, brave, and reckless . . . and so breakable.
I can't. I'm sorry I can't, I think.
- - -
"Why would you ask me that?" She's looking at me now.
I shake my head and continue smiling to myself to hide the nauseous feeling in the pit of my stomach. Now she's staring intently at me with her brown eyes and waiting for an answer. I jump down from the brick wall and offer my hand up to her. What is only a little ways down for me is a long way down for her.
"Jack," Her voice is thick with concern, "is something wrong?"
If I reach out any further I can stroke her cheek with my gangly fingertips.
My head is swimming, it's pacing, it's fevering.
"No," I swallow back a choke, "everything's fine, Nikki."
It sucks to be in love with a girl when she already has a boyfriend.


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Follow us @erumors
Tidbits of Wisdom From Abraham Lincoln-Fiction!
People who got the pamphlet thought the 10 statements were written by Lincoln and they have been distributed widely under Lincoln's name.
During this political season lets be reminded of these wise words:
You cannot help the poor by destroying the rich. You cannot strengthen the weak by weakening the strong. You cannot bring about prosperity by discouraging thrift. You cannot lift the wage earner up by pulling the wage payer down. You cannot further the brotherhood of man by inciting class hatred. You cannot build character and courage by taking away men's initiative and independence. You cannot help men permanently by doing for them, what they could and should do for themselves.
--Abraham Lincoln
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Ravens' Arthur Jones overcame injury, death of sister on path to NFL
"It was just a rough year," said the now-25-year-old, shaking his head. "I just kept smiling and kept having tunnel vision knowing that God has a plan and everything happens for a reason."
When the Ravens selected Arthur in the fifth round of the 2010 NFL draft, they knew they were getting a tough, selfless and competitive defensive lineman who struggled as a senior due to injury.
"(After) his junior year, Arthur was one of our top 20 rated players based off spring scouting," Ravens director of college scouting Joe Hortiz said. "(Northeast area scout) Andy Weidl had studied him and really thought highly of him, in terms of a fit in our defensive scheme. ... (He) would take on blocks, free guys up, but he also had the ability to make plays on his own."
Arthur said he loves it in Baltimore and he still believes that he made the right decision to stay at Syracuse instead of going pro early. When Chandler, 21, asked his oldest brother for career advice after recording 39 tackles and 4.5 sacks as a junior, Arthur told him to follow his heart.
"I saw what happened to Art after his junior year and how he got hurt," said Chandler, who is on track to graduate in May. "I would be lying to you if I told you that it didn't (play a part in my decision). ... He told me, 'Remember what happened to me.' But he didn't say to leave or stay."
Chandler said that the NFL's Draft Advisory Board has projected him to be a third-round pick.
Difficult days
Jon and Chandler had always looked up to their oldest brother for guidance and inspiration. But the Jones boys learned to rely on each other when their older sister, Carmen, was diagnosed with brain cancer and quickly grew seriously ill. She died at age 17 when Arthur was in eighth grade.
"She was an angel. You ask God, 'Why?' But I guess God had a better plan for her," Arthur said.
An adolescent, Arthur didn't really understand what cancer was. He figured Carmen would get better, just like that. She had to. He struggled to come to grips with her fading health as her motor skills declined and she was unable to do the things she loved, like playing the piano. But he got some comfort knowing they had grown closer than ever.
With his father, Arthur Jones Jr., who is a pastor in Binghamton, N.Y., and his mother, who used to work with the mentally handicapped before complications from diabetes caused her kidneys to fail, tending to Carmen during her two-year battle with cancer, the brothers survived the difficult and confusing time together. There were left at times to fend for themselves until Carmen was released from the hospital and spent the rest of her life in their home.
"We had to raise each other and look out for each other and cook for each other," Jon said. "Me, Arthur and Chandler, we had to keep each other strong. We really fed off each other's energy."
"It brought us all closer. It made that puzzle that much tighter," added Arthur.
Growing up, the brothers were nearly inseparable _ that's what happens when you cram three boys into one bedroom _ but being a year apart in age, Arthur and Jon were particularly tight. They went to the same schools. They ate lunch together every day. They had the same friends. The three brothers even made their own code language that they would prefer stays top-secret.
"We can talk about someone in the room with us," Jon said. "They have no clue we're talking about them and we're speaking perfectly clear English. But we can't really share it with anyone else."
They would stay up late playing the "NFL Blitz" video game with the sound off so their parents would think they were sleeping. And Jon desperately wanted to beat his big bro at anything.
"I was always the one who tried to make a competition out of things because Arthur was good at everything," Jon said. "Arthur is an awesome older brother to have. He's everything, man. ... No matter what's going on in my life, I'll always have Arthur there as my right-hand man."
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Archive for the 'Computer Models' Category
A summary of the 'Climate Departure' research of Mora et al.
The video below contains a very compelling 22-minute summary of an impressive array of work, widely reported in the World's newspapers this week. The research team, based in the Geography Department at the University of Hawaii, was led by Associate Professor Camilo Mora.
Sadly, it has already been dismissed by people with a track-record denying, downplaying or dismissing the nature, scale and urgency of the problem of anthropogenic climate disruption (ACD). People such as Bjorn Lomborg, for example.
A brief summary of the key points of the research:
1. For any geographic location the time of 'climate departure' is the time beyond which even the coldest monthly average temperature will be warmer than anything observed in the last 150 years. The same method was used to determine the time beyond which a range of other factors (such as precipitation and evaporation) would no longer fall below the range of local values observed in the last 150 years.
2. The monthly average data for all these calculations, data were obtained from 39 global climate models (GCMs – the accuracy of which I discuss below) constructed by 21 climate modelling centres in 12 different countries around the World. Common to all of these models is the same suite of CO2 emissions projections scenarios, two of which the research team used to define the range of possible temperature rises: RCP8.5 – representing a business as usual (BAU) scenario where humanity makes no attempt to reduce CO2 emissions; and RCP4.5 – representing a scenario where globally co-ordinated and concerted efforts are made to reduce CO2 emissions. With regard to atmospheric CO2 concentrations, it should be noted that:
— RCP8.5 is projected to result in a continuing increase to 900 ppm CO2 by the end of the Century; and
— RCP4.5 is projected to result in a peak value of 500 ppm being reached by mid-Century.
3. The results suggest that on average, climate departure (for temperature) is reached 2047 under the RCP8.5 scenario, or 2069 under the RCP4.5 scenario. This therefore implies that aggressive attempts to reduce carbon emissions could delay the onset of climate departure by several decades. Furthermore, the results suggest that climate departure will come to lower latitudes (equatorial and tropical areas) first. Under RCP8.5 this is as early as 2020 in some places. Under RCP4.5, climate departure is projected to be experienced almost everywhere by the end of the Century.
4. The team has produced an interactive map, published online here by the Washington Post newspaper, which can be used to see when climate departure is predicted under both scenarios for any location on the Earth's surface.
5. The team suggests that the historical focus on absolute changes in temperature (i.e. predicted and observed to be greatest in polar regions) have given humans a false sense of security about the likely personal impacts. This study inverts that pattern and shatters the illusion that humans will not be directly impacted by changes in temperature. This is because, where the natural climate variability is smallest, less absolute change is required for it to be significant and most of the species present have less resilience to that change.
6. The research highlights the changes that have already occurred. Indeed, the most striking finding of the research is that the pH of seawater across the entire planet – i.e. without any exceptions – is already lower than it has been at any time in the last 150 years.
7. The research highlights the fact that those areas that are likely to reach climate departure soonest are also areas with the highest average population density and the lowest capacity to adapt. Under RCP4.5, it is expected that 1 billion people will be living in area experiencing unprecedented climatic conditions by 2050. Whereas, under the RCP8.5 this is expected to be 5 billion people (i.e. half the currently-projected global population).
8. The research indicates that the Earth's most significant biological assets (essential ecosystem services and biodiversity) are at risk. This is the consequence of three facets of the above: (a) equatorial and tropical regions will be the first to experience climate departure; (b) they contain the greatest proportion of the Earth's biological assets; and (c) are the least resilient to any change and the least able to adapt.
Conclusions (some readers may find some sentences upsetting)
1. If we stick to BAU, we will guarantee that (a) the long-term consequences will be increasingly unpleasant; (b) mitigation will become impossible; and (c) adaptation will be required sooner and faster and therefore be more costly. Alternatively, if we decide to try and mitigate ACD (by aggressively reducing CO2 emissions), we may be able to limit the unpleasantness and the scale and total cost of adaptation required (by humans and non-humans alike).
2. If we do nothing, the extinction of a significant proportion of species on Earth would appear to be unavoidable in the long-term (and, if that happens, the survival of humanity would have to be seriously in jeopardy). Alternatively, if we take action, the extinction of some species looks highly probable but, critically, this will buy most species several decades to adapt. This means that the costs of adaptation can be spread over those extra decades.
3. Given all of the above, how can it make any sense to continue to argue about what we should do?
Comments about the accuracy of Global Climate Models (GCMs)
One very easy way to dismiss all this is to point out that, in the course of the last decade, global average temperatures have slipped from well above 75th to just above 5th percentile of GCM predictions. Despite this, however, the exponential nature of the observed temperature increase over the last 150 years is very obvious in the above video.
Furthermore, the only way anyone can justify reaching the conclusion that this increase will not continue is by asserting that CO2 is not the main driver. A recent article on the Yale Forum on Climate Change and the Media website, entitled 'Examining the Recent Slow-Down in Global Warming', has an excellent set of graphs that explain how and why we can be certain that CO2 is the main driver.
In addition, as per the comments I have posted on the above article, none of the GCMs include the global dimming effects of industrial pollution. Given that this is the case, I really do not understand why so many climate scientists keep saying we do not understand the reason for the current hiatus. In his book, 'Storms of my Grandchildren', James Hansen repeatedly complains about the fact that, 20 years ago, NASA refused to invest in satellite monitoring of this pollution. Thus we have been unable to model its effects because we have no data to put into the GCMs.
The ethics of fossil fuel use
I am grateful to Schalke Cloete, of One in a Billion blog fame, for alerting me to this public debate, which was held on Monday at the privately-financed Duke University, in Durham, North Carolina (the US State that has passed a Law that makes accelerating sea level rise illegal).
The debate appears to have been arranged at the behest of one of the two protagonists, Alex Epstein (founder of the Center for Industrial Progress) – whose challenge Bill McKibben (350.org) clearly accepted.
The video below runs to nearly 100 minutes in length so, I suspect, only very few will watch it. Anyone who does will find it very rewarding but, for the majority that probably will not watch it, I have summarised its content below.
To start with both speakers are given 10 minutes to put their case, they are then given opportunity to respond to the points made by the other; to cross-examine each other; and to put forward closing arguments.
Bill McKibben went first and started by stating that fossil fuels were good for us but that the advantages of their continued use are now outweighed by the disadvantages and, therefore, wherever we can, we should stop using them. He then provided fact-based evidence for twelve risks we face if we do not do this:
1. Ocean acidification which will kill corals and endanger a wide variety of shellfish.
2. Melting Ice caps and permafrost (sea level rise and methane release).
3. Increasing frequency and severity of extreme weather events of all kinds.
4. Reduced crop for crops of all kinds and consequential increases in food prices.
5. Mass extinction of species (that cannot migrate or whose habitats are degraded).
6. Inundation of coastal cities (with all the collateral damage and disruption that will cause).
7. Increased frequency and severity of forest fires.
8. Increasing numbers of deaths resulting from atmospheric pollution and heat waves.
9. Economic growth and development will be hindered by increased expenditure on mitigation.
10. Socio-political instability and insecurity arising from all of the above (see the Pentagon's QDR).
11. Libertarian desires will be endangered by the increasing need for autocratic responses.
12. Democracy itself is endangered by policy inaction being promoted by the fossil fuel lobby.
In response to all of this, Alex Epstein insisted that the risks were unproven. This being North Carolina (where accelerating sea level rise has been outlawed), he insisted that there is no evidence that things will get that bad. He then proceeded to point out that climate-related deaths (whatever they are) have gone down over time, whilst CO2 levels have gone up. Despite the fact that he did not himself offer any evidence, he dismissed all of McKibben's well-referenced arguments as mere speculation. He then trotted out numerous climate denial classics including the mutually contradictory arguments that (a) global warming has stopped and (b) technology will enable us to solve the problem. Alex repeatedly referred to fossil fuels as affordable abundant energy; and repeatedly referred to it as real energy (implying that somehow renewable energy is not real?)
Bill McKibben responded to all of this by pointing out that correlation is not proof of causation; and provided yet more evidence to back up his original assertions. He questioned why anyone would champion increased fuel use rather than promoting the reduction of demand through improved energy efficiency. He questioned why Epstein was so defeatist about the prospects for renewable energy; and pointed out that many of the problems he cited had in fact already been solved. Renewable energy is real energy and, since the alternatives to fossil fuel exist, its use should therefore be maximised as fast as possible.
Epstein responded by asserting that all environmentalists are anti-progress because they are anti –hydroelectric projects and anti-nuclear. He therefore challenged McKibben to endorse the legitimacy of both as potential solutions. He then trotted out yet more climate change denial classics such as (i) CO2 is a trace gas (citing the rise from 0.03% volume to 0.04% volume as insignificant – even though that would actually represent a 33% increase); and (ii) climate model predictions have proven to be unreliable (when in fact they have proven to be overly optimistic). Despite the fact that Epstein – Philosophy and Computer Science major – is clearly no expert in the natural sciences, he even tried and failed to refute the fact that ocean acidification is not happening (by claiming they are becoming less alkaline and more neutral).
Epstein was then invited to rebut McKibben's arguments. In so doing he repeated his mantra about the folly of giving up on the most affordable and abundant energy source we have, which would prevent progress; and unnecessarily condemn millions to a life of misery. He asserted that fossil fuels had made modern agriculture possible and solved the problem of world hunger that people worried about 40 years ago. Furthermore, given the growth in human population since then, he suggested that we now need fossil fuels in order to prevent widespread malnutrition and starvation.
In rebutting Epstein's arguments, McKibben started by repeating that fossil fuels had made many good things possible in the past but that the risks of their continued use now outweigh the disadvantages. Climate change has already resulted in more food being eaten than grown in 6 of the last 11 years; and that unabated increase in fossil fuel use will only make it increasingly hard to grow crops. McKibben also questioned the wisdom of trying to refute the opinions of the World's leading ecologists by asserting that our oceans are not actually turning into acids.
In their closing speeches, Epstein and McKibben recapped their main arguments: Epstein questioned the validity of all the evidence McKibben had presented (but presented none himself); and questioned the integrity of McKibben – accusing him of misrepresenting the situation (for what motive?). In complete contrast, McKibben did not use such language and, being careful not to attack Epstein personally, repeated his main point that the fossil fuel industry is the only one that does not pay to dispose of its waste. He then concluded by suggesting that fossil fuel companies need to decide to become energy companies instead; and embrace the use of all the alternatives that we have.
Another open letter to James Delingpole
James Delingpole is almost as difficult to engage in debate as Lord Monckton; but not quite – at least I have had several exchanges of emails with Monckton. His Lordship may be equally as fond of facile sarcasm but at least he keeps up a pretence of being capable of debate. Delingpole is just sarcastic; and will not engage in debate with anyone who understands the science – let alone an actual climate scientist. But after being intellectually raped by Sir Paul Nurse, who can blame him? Still, I do wish he would shut up… This is a transcript of my latest attempt to get his attention (still visible here on his personal blog). However, he seems to be too busy over on his Telegraph blog debating the significance of more important political questions of our times such as: Has George Osborn has ever eaten a Cornish Pasty?…
Dear James,
I know you will cite the Met Office as being part of some anti-libertarian plot to install worldwide Socialist governance but, will you please do us all a favour and suspend your belief in conspiracy theories just long enough to take on board some new information:
"A project running almost 10,000 climate simulations on volunteers' home computers has found that a global warming of 3 degrees Celsius by 2050 is 'equally plausible' as a rise of 1.4 degrees. The study addresses some of the uncertainties that previous forecasts, using simpler models or only a few dozen simulations, may have over-looked. Importantly, the forecast range is derived from using a complex Met Office model that accurately reproduces observed temperature changes over the last 50 years. The results suggest that the world is very likely to cross the '2 degrees barrier' at some point this century if emissions continue unabated. It also suggests that those planning for the impacts of climate change need to consider the possibility of warming of up to 3 degrees (above the 1961-1990 average) by 2050, even on a mid-range emission scenario. This is a faster rate of warming than most other models predict."
Citizen science looks at future warming uncertainty.
N.B. The ability of these computer models to recreate historical trends over the last 50 years is not evidence of fudge factors having been applied: It is evidence of model validation, which – along with calibration and sensitivity analysis – is an integral part of establishing the accuracy of such modelling techniques. You can – or should – trust me on this because, unlike you, this is what I have been doing for the last 20 years or so (i.e. using probabilistic computer modelling in environmental risk assessments).
Your beloved marketplace of ideas is a dangerous fallacy; of which your success in getting your ill-informed unscientific opinions plastered all over the media and infecting people's minds is profound evidence. And for what purpose? You may think you are acting in the public interest but, unfortunately, like everything else in Watermelons 2.0, this is an inversion of reality: As Peter Jacques (University of Florida) has pointed out, it is precisely because environmental scepticism is not in the public interest, the tobacco industry invented the sound science versus junk science debate (now being used to great effect by the fossil fuel and energy industry) to confuse people and prevent sensible regulation of their product.
Prof. Lindzen – try this instead!
Further to my somewhat over-long email to Professor Richard Lindzen on 23 February (on which yesterday's post was based), and as a result of the subsequent exchange of emails between us, I extracted the key 17 questions buried in the original email; and turned them into 17 assertions that can either be accepted or disputed. This was sent to Professor Lindzen on 25 February 2012.
While waiting for Professor Lindzen to clarify his position, all readers are invited to see how many they are willing to concede may very well reflect reality:
1. The IPCC is too optimistic.
2. Holocene climatic stability is now endangered.
3. The 'marketplace of ideas' is a fallacy.
4. The notion of a scientific conspiracy is an illusion.
5. Some of your (Lindzen's) graphs were potentially misleading.
6. Given (2), post-Industrial temperature rise is significant.
7. Given the inertia in the system, more warming is 'in the pipeline'.
8. Sceptics are always 'going down the up escalator'.
9. Therefore 'global warming' did not stop in 1998 (or at any other time).
10. Neither the Sun nor volcanoes are now the dominant climate forcing.
11. As CO2 is the only thing to have changed significantly, this is a 'fair test'.
12. ACD is inevitable because the Earth's energy balance must be restored.
13. Soon we will have to re-name the Glacier National Park in Montana.
14. It would be sensible to move to a low/zero carbon economy ASAP.
15. Environmental concern is based on palaeoclimatology not models.
16. Climate "sceptics" are not like Galileo.
17. Environmentalism is not the enemy of humanity.
How highly did you score?
There is one crucially-important factor (not stated as a question in the orginal email) – and that is Climate Sensitivity. If Professor lindzen is wrong, I think we're all screwed… Unfortunately, just about every other legitimate climate scientist – apart from Judith Curry, Pat Michaels and Roy Spencer – thinks Professor Lindzen is indeed wrong.
So the big question is, what are we all going to do about it?
***UPDATE: Please make sure you read this too (and/or instead)!***
An open letter to Richard Lindzen
Last week, I was fortunate enough to get a ticket to a meeting in the Palace of Westminster at which MIT Professor Richard Lindzen was the guest speaker. Unfortunately, as a result of frustration with what I saw as Lindzen's failure to explain the relevance of palaeoclimatology to our understanding of the way in which the Earth regulates its temperature, I blew my chance to ask a question. However, Prof. Lindzen kindly invited me to email them to him instead. I know it was a bit cheeky of me but, rather than email him the 3 questions I had prepared, I decided to email him questions arising from what he actually said instead. What follows is a copy of my rather long (whose fault is that?) email (I sent to him the next day) – only very slightly amended as a consequence of a subsequent exchange of emails (in which he did not answer any of my questions)…
***UPDATE: Because this is such a long post you may wish to skip ahead and come back later (may be). If so, go to this simple 17 sentence summary first or instead!***
Dear Professor Lindzen,
RE: My questions arising from listening to your talk entitled 'Global Warming: How to Approach the Science (Climate models and the evidence)', at the Palace of Westminster on Wednesday 22 February 2012
Given Viscount Monckton's curtailment of our discussion, I am grateful to you for offering to answer my questions via email. I trust you have (had) a safe journey back to the USA.
In order that you may appreciate where I am coming from on this subject, please note that I am 47 years old and have over 25 years of professional work experience as a mine geologist and hydrogeologist; mostly having worked in environmental consultancy but also for the Environment Agency (the equivalent of your EPA). However, in addition to a BSc in Geology and an MSc in Hydrogeology, I now have an MA in Environmental Politics. (For more background on me, please see the 'About' page of my blog). In addition to my academic qualifications, I am a Fellow of the Geological Society of London (GSL) and a Chartered Geologist and, although I do not speak for the GSL (which can and does speak for itself – as does the American Association of Petroleum Geologists (AAPG)), I am copying this email to GSL Vice-President Professor Colin Summerhayes (who also asked you the question about the Palaeocene Eocene Thermal Maximum [PETM] at the meeting).
As you might imagine, I had come to the meeting with 3 questions prepared in the hope that I might get to ask at least one. Unfortunately, I never got as far as my first question (and was not allowed a second attempt)… However, given that the moment has now passed, I have decided that it would make more sense to pose my questions to you as they arise from the notes I made while you were talking. This email is therefore rather long but, even if it takes you a while (given all your other commitments), I hope you will be willing and able to respond in due course (e.g. please feel free to insert your responses in a distinctive font colour and return my email).
I hope you will not be offended but, I must confess to being somewhat surprised that your talk was not significantly different from the version on the Internet (i.e. as delivered 21 months ago at the ICCC4 in May 2010). In addition, although perfectly polite, I was disappointed by your seemingly repeated insinuation that the IPCC is a politically alarmist institution and/or that just about anyone that disagrees with you (e.g. Martin Rees and Ralph Cicerone) is part of some kind of global conspiracy to foist environmental alarmism on a credulous world; presumably for reasons of personal (scientific) or political expediency. You will gather from all this that I do not buy-in to the assertion that Climategate was anything other than a mendacious attempt to discredit climate science and scientists, which was all the more obvious after its repetition last year.
Therefore, although I am not questioning whether you believe what you say to be true (as that would be to question your integrity and/or intellectual honesty); I am bound to ask – where is the actual evidence for this? Furthermore, I am also bound to say that, on the contrary, there is very clear historical documentary evidence for an extensive, business-led, campaign to downplay, deny or dismiss a whole sequence of environmental problems over recent decades (e.g. see Merchants of Doubt). It is because of this that, despite what I consider to be my sound grasp of the physical basis for concern over anthropogenic climate disruption (ACD), my Lack of Environment blog tends to focus on the politics underlying its denial – and the denial of all other environmental problems (e.g. your previous advocacy work for and on behalf of the tobacco industry). However, I digress… As promised, here are my thoughts regarding your presentation:
In addition to the foregoing, I would make one further observation regarding your criticism of the IPCC: As you must know from first-hand experience, by virtue of the way the IPCC was set-up by UN-member governments, all of its reports are subject to line-by-line and word-by-word scrutiny; such that everything it has ever published has tended to be optimistic, under-stated and/or couched in vague and convoluted caveats. Furthermore, I should hope that you would also acknowledge that its AR4 documents (2007) are also now out-of-date?
In essence, your optimism appears to be founded upon your conviction that climate sensitivity is low. However, the fact remains that the last time the Earth experienced 450ppm of atmospheric CO2 (a level that we now seem certain to exceed) was 35 million years ago when global average temperatures were 4 Celsius warmer than prior to the Industrial Revolution; at which time Antarctica was ice-free. Furthermore, all existing life on Earth is adapted to the way things are now. Therefore, it is utterly irrelevant that it may have been significantly warmer in the more distant past. Do I really have to remind you that modern humans (cities, cultivation and civilisation) would not be here if it were not for the fact that both climate and sea levels have been remarkably stable for at least 7,000 years?
You expressed surprise at the fact that academics choose to be alarmed; whereas the public are sceptical. This seems a remarkable piece of reality inversion to me; and makes me wonder who you would consult if you were concerned that you might have a serious life-threatening medical condition? Surely the public's scepticism and/or cynicism owes more to belief in 'the marketplace of ideas' and the modern preference for believing in conspiracy theories that absolve us of responsibility – and/or blame somebody else – for bad things that happen?
I was somewhat surprised at your criticism of the 255 National Academy of Sciences (NAS) signatories to a letter in Nature and the Guardian newspaper in May 2010 (i.e. that many were not actively involved in climate science) because you are the only climate scientist amongst sixteen signatories to a letter that appeared recently in the WSJ (which also refused to publish one signed by 255 relevant academics). Surely, then, it is hypocritical of you to criticise the NAS letter?
One of the many graphs you displayed showed at least a 0.6 Celsius rise since 1860 (although Richard Muller's BEST study would suggest (as have many others before) that the increase is more than this). However, despite the relative climate and sea level stability over the last 7,000 years, you dismissed this as not "statistically significant". Can you tell me at what point you would consider a rise to be statistically significant; and why? Are you not worried at all by the fact that, due to the massive inertia in the climate system, more warming is already "in the pipeline"?
You also criticised the dubious practice of manipulating the axes of graphs to misrepresent data and/or convey misleading ideas. However, at least one of your graphs did exactly that (i.e. steeply inclined Keeling Curve superimposed on cherry-picked slightly-declining, temperature gradient) [see important Footnote]. I would therefore agree with you, as the use of such tactics is clearly capable of suggesting that there is no correlation between two variables that are very well correlated indeed. Furthermore, I would be interested to know what your reaction is to the 'Still Going Down the Up Escalator' article on the SkepticalScience Website? Will you at least admit that Global Warming did not stop in 1998?
You mentioned in your talk that the Sun was 20% dimmer 2000 Ma BP and that the Earth was much colder back then (i.e. 'Snowball Earth'). However, it has been much warmer in the past as well. This would appear to demonstrate that the Sun is not a dominant cause of current warming. Furthermore, the USGS have recently confirmed that volcanoes are not either. Despite your misgivings about use of the word "incontrovertible", would you accept these assertions as at least highly likely to be true?
Although not the strongest greenhouse gas (GHG), CO2 is the most abundant, long-lived, GHG there is (i.e. water vapour is much more abundant but comes and goes; whereas methane is 23 times more powerful as a GHG but is much less abundant). Furthermore, CO2 is the only thing capable of explaining the warming we have seen over the last 150 years, because CO2 is the only thing that has changed significantly (i.e. increased by 40%) in that time. Surely this is what is known in science as a "fair test"? Nothing else has changed significantly (not the Sun, not cosmic rays, not water vapour, not volcanic eruptions). Given all of the above, can you please explain to me why you continue to assert that the science behind concern over the enhanced greenhouse effect is uncertain?
Towards the end of your talk, you mocked the alarmism of the 1920s. However, it was about that time that the first photographic records were made of glaciers in the Himalayas and elsewhere. Recent similar expeditions have proved that very significant loss of glacier ice-mass (i.e. depth and length) has occurred in 90 years and, in the case of South Georgia (i.e. the UK territory in the South Atlantic!) it is known that most of the retreat has occurred in the last 30 years. Furthermore, as an example closer to your home, it is currently estimated that in Montana, Glacier National Park has already lost over 75% of the 150 glaciers first observed (by Europeans) in the 1880s and, even at current rates of melting, they are all expected to have disappeared by 2030. At what stage do you think the National Park should be re-named? Would it not be a good idea for humanity to collectively agree to try and stop this happening elsewhere by moving rapidly to a low/zero carbon economy?
Finally, for the record, the 3 questions I had prepared (to which I would still also be delighted to receive answers), are as follows:
Concern over anthropogenic climate disruption (ACD) is based on the study of palaeoclimatology, not on computer modelling. However, models have helped to predict the atmospheric response to greenhouse gas emissions; and any uncertainties in model predictions have been due to uncertainties in emissions projections. Therefore, when reviewed retrospectively (choosing the most appropriate emissions scenario that reflects what actually happened to emissions), the models are demonstrably very accurate (if they include all climate forcings). Given all of this, why is it that you maintain that we have no reason to be concerned?
What is your answer to Utah-based Professor of Geological Sciences, Barry Bickmore, who recently suggested that today's so-called climate "sceptics" are not like Galileo because, rather than fighting against one, they are fighting for an obscurantist and anti-intellectual Establishment, in an attempt to perpetuate the burning of fossil fuels for as long as possible?
Given the findings documented in Naomi Oreskes and Erik Conway's book, Merchants of Doubt, can you please tell me why, having fought for so long on behalf of the tobacco industry to prevent legislation to minimise the harmful effects of smoking, you have apparently focused instead on helping the fossil fuel lobby deny that anthropogenic climate disruption is happening?
At 28 mins and 30 seconds into this video of the talk, it can be clearly seen that Lindzen presented a slide with the steeply inclined Keeling 'curve' overlain with static or slightly-declining recent temperature data. This slide does not appear in the published PDF of this presentation. Why is this?
For the avoidance of any doubt about this, here is a screenshot of the "missing" slide as it appears in the video:
Fables about climate change?
Continuing my review of Paul and Anne Ehrlich's Betrayal of Science and Reason (1996), we come to Chapter 8 – regarding (what they called) the "brownlash's" fables about the Atmosphere and Climate. Given that the Ehrlichs acknowledge that climate change is the biggest problem we face – and the one which contrarians deny most vociferously – I am not sure why it is not tackled first (or last) in their book: This may be because the Ehrlichs are biologists – and more comfortable talking about food, population and biodiversity but, whatever the reason, I am sticking to their order of presentation. Therefore, the last of these posts about the fables promoted by the brownlash will be tomorrow – regarding toxic chemicals.
As for today, although the Ehrlichs tackle all kinds of atmospheric pollution, I think the brownlash has since been comprehensively defeated on all fronts accept that relating to CO2 emissions. Therefore, I will only review here the fables that the Ehrlichs identified as being put forward by climate change deniers that – as you will see – have not changed much in 15 years; and neither have those promulgating them! Indeed, all of arguments identified below (and their rebuttals) can be found on sites like Skeptical Science; and/or summarised in Robert Henson's Rough Guide to Climate Change. Nevertheless, as ever, the Ehrlich's comments are very incisive; and remain just as relevant today as they were in 1996. So, using the abbreviation ACC for (anthropogenic climate change), here is the Ehrlich's top ten:
01. ACC is not a problem: The Ehrlichs' simplistic response to this was to say two things – You have to roll dice many times to establish beyond reasonable doubt that they are loaded; and if climate change is not a problem to "sceptics" then, presumably, neither would they be concerned if they found a lump in a breast or a testicle (depending on gender obviously).
02. The greenhouse effect is just a theory: A long-time favourite argument of Richard Lindzen's. To which many have responded, so is gravity! However, the Ehrlichs point out that without greenhouse gases (GHGs) in our atmosphere, the Earth's surface would be at minus 18 Celsius and, although water vapour and methane may be more potent GHGs – water vapour is ephemeral and methane is (thankfully) even more of a trace gas than CO2.
03. Problematic ACC is only predicted by models: Ever since James Hansen went on the record as saying that evidence for ACC had emerged from the "noise" of natural climate variation in 1988, this assertion has been attacked. However, all such counter-claims have proven to be misleading, deceitful, and/or based on flawed analysis of cherry-picked data. Most recently, of course, former sceptic Dr Richard A Muller has conceded that multi-decadal warming is happening. Unfortunately, the response of deniers has been one of two things: To add Muller to the list of people duped by the ACC "scam" or to try and claim that a supposed absence of warming over the last decade is relevant.
04. Scientists used to fear an approaching Ice Age: This is such a tired old argument; I can barely be bothered to respond to it. However, as does everybody else, the Ehrlichs point out that between 1945 and 1975, the cooling effect of atmospheric pollution generated by developed countries was greater than the warming effect of ACC. Today pollution from less developed countries may be doing the same thing but this is not good news because one day soon, just as it did before, ACC is likely to dominate once more.
05. The doubling of a trace gas such as CO2 cannot possibly be responsible for ACC: This is just a straightforward refusal to accept a physical reality that is theoretically well-understood; demonstrable in a laboratory; and now, arguably, observable in nature.
06. Humans can't possibly affect our atmosphere and/or climate: The Ehrlichs' response to this was to ask how many micrograms of bacteria does it take to kill a 100kg man? So then, just like Nazi propaganda, no matter how many times this lie is repeated, it will not magically become true. It is an unpleasant reality that we all need to accept: The burning of fossil fuels by humanity is endangering the climate and sea level stability of the last 7,000 years that made modern civilisation possible.
07. 20th Century warming is just recovery from Little Ice Age (LIA): This is, in essence, the same argument as that made by people who continue to attack the MBH98 Hockey Stick graph, as if by doing so, they could invalidate 150 years of scientific understanding of the likely effects of doubling atmospheric CO2 concentration. See this recent post on Climate Denial Crock of the Week: Perfect Timing! New "Hockey Stick" Video/Mike Mann in WSJ.
08. Change will be slow – we can adapt: Having been defeated by the science, this is the fall-back position adopted by economically-oriented "sceptics" – both in 1996 and still today! As those with a tendency to support their arguments by quoting from the Bible ("Moi?") might say, "What has been will be again, what has been done will be done again; there is nothing new under the sun" (Ecclesiastes 1:9). However, such an unscientific position ignores the existence of positive feedback mechanisms and tipping points; it also ignores the fact that climate change is already impeding our ability to grow enough crops to feed ourselves or the animals we eat. This problem can only get worse not better. Also, of course, it ignores the fact that trees can't migrate!
09. ACC is not worth the cost of fixing: Even in 1996, William Nordhaus was trying to tell the world that this is so. Not surprisingly, therefore, he denounced The Stern Review in 2006. However, I have yet to see anyone rebut Stern's response to this criticism – which was to point out that putting off expenditure on climate change mitigation will be the greatest economic mistake in human history. If so, why are we still making it?
10. Some parts of the world are getting colder: Up until this year, "sceptics" have continued to cite this argument every time some part of the world is hit by some unusually-cold weather. Hopefully, in the face of the spiralling costs of insurance claims arising from increasingly frequent extreme weather phenomena of all kind all around the world (all being caused – as predicted by models – by warming oceans), they will now shut up and focus instead on solving our problem.
May be now people will accept that climate change is an existential threat to all life on Earth? I hope so, because, as James Hansen points out, we have at most 4 years of business as usual before it will be too late.
Hansen – where the IPCC went wrong
I could have just called this post "Climate science in a nutshell – Part 3" but that would have been to display a singular lack of imagination (no pun intended); and may not have grabbed your attention. So, yes, I am continuing my review of Storms of my Grandchildren. Hansen says in the Introduction to the book, his intention was to summarise events since his sixtieth birthday in 2001 and, the further you get into the book, the more obvious it becomes that he has spent much of his time since then telling anybody that would listen (and many would not) that the IPCC were seriously underestimating the risks posed by climate change. This has now become a well-established fact that will hopefully be addressed in the forthcoming Assessment Report 5. However, when Hansen started saying this in 2003, it was almost revolutionary…
First of all a brief journey back in time: In Chapter 4, Henson goes on a brief detour to explain why it is that we still don't have the data to accurately quantify exactly how much pollution in the atmosphere is slowing down the warming that would otherwise be taking place; and why this is now so regrettable. The answers being that special interest groups interfered with decision making 20 years ago to prevent investment in the necessary satellite construction and deployment; and if we understood this "global dimming" effect better we would also have a better idea of how bad things could get (if and when developing countries clean-up their act).
James Hutton is one of the most famous figures in the history of geology who first devised the Principle of Uniformitarianism (which Chrales Lyell later popularised by saying "the the present is the key to the past"). This contends that, for example, by watching the way water can cut a channel through moist sand on a beach when the tide goes out, we can understand how the Grand Canyon was formed; and that the only difference (in this instance) is the time taken to achieve the end result. Hansen's insight has been to invert this Principle and to realise that the past is the key to the present; in that we can deduce what will now happen by understanding what happened in the past; and why (Chapter 5).
Perhaps the most noticeable thing about the time-series data from the ice core record (reproduced here for convenience) is what Hansen calls the "saw-toothed climate response": Whereas ice age conditions have generally taken tens of thousands of years to develop; the Earth has typically emerged from them at least ten times faster. This Hansen attributes to the fact that ice melts much faster than it can accumulate (which is dependent on it snowing first). Furthermore, although the pattern of the last 1 million years has been for the Earth to go in and out of ice ages, it has been much warmer in the more distant past. For example, Antarctica first became glaciated when the temperature was 4 Celsius warmer than pre-Industrial times; 35 million years ago when atmospheric CO2 was at 450ppm and falling. This is why Hansen went on record a few years ago saying that humanity needed to avoid allowing such conditions to re-establish themselves because the melting of ice sheets would then be inevitable.
However, what has irritated Hansen for much of the last 10 years is the fact that the IPCC predictions of sea level change in 2001 and 2007 have ignored the melting of ice caps. Furthermore, Hansen is convinced that this is the reason why climate change effects (melting glaciers, permafrost, sea ice, and ice caps in Greenland and West Antarctica) are now accelerating faster than the IPCC predicted: Basically, the IPCC did not allow for amplifying feedback mechanisms. Quite why, I still don't understand (hopefully I will by the time I finish the book), but I suspect it was because they were relying on climate modelling too much; and not looking out the window enough.
The next factor in the equation (to determine how bad things could get and how quickly they could get there) is the inertia in the climate system: Despite the fact that the Earth can warm-up much quicker than it cools-down (and ice core data do show that air temperatures can change dramatically within just a few years), the oceans take decades to change their overall temperature because of their volume. Although the recent warming (and acidification) of the oceans cannot now be seriously questioned, those that would deny that we have a problem and/or are the cause of the problem will no doubt continue to do so (just as they continue to dispute the veracity of land-based temperature increases). However, what should be remembered is this: Despite all of their limitations, computer modelling did predict the warming of the oceans and the consequential increase in the frequency and intensity of tropical storms, droughts, wildfires, floods, blizzards, etc. Therefore, whilst it may be impossible to prove that any individual extreme weather event is a direct consequence of climate change, in aggregate, it is surely as plain as the nose on your face that this is exactly what we were told would happen. The big question is, what's next?
Please come back tomorrow to find out! :-)


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Entries in life (177)
Still not in school
I realize that recently my blogging has become more of a "where have we been" display throughout the summer months. Jon said last night that it looked a bit like Vladimir Putin Action Man: "here is us in Stratford", "here we are with ice cream", "and here in front of Mt. Hood", etc., etc.
The truth is, it was a crazy, whirlwind of a summer. We were gone more weekends than we were home, and even our longer respites in town were filled with various community activities. It wasn't planned that way; things just kept coming up, and what started as a summer with two trips planned quickly got a tad out of hand. The last few weeks have been our longest stay at home in months, and they've allowed me at least a little time to try and catch up in the garden and the house, but we have one more trip up our sleeves.
In the past we've been year round schoolers, but this year was a little different. When we first started homeschooling we were aiming for a very unschooling environment, and our summers were little different from our falls, winters, and springs, excepting, of course, for the weather. But in the past few years, as our methods have undergone a slow but decided evolution, have found ourselves more on the side of classical schooling. Now, in the fall, winter, and spring, our mornings are often spent at the kitchen table or a like place, studying or creating together. In the summers we continue to start our days with a little dabble of math and Spanish, but the rest of the day is often spent outside doing one thing or another. I guess you could call the cooler months our classical time, and the warmest months our unschooling time.
The truth being, though, that we still live the life of home learners who find "education" in everything we do.
So this fall, with one more trip still waiting in the wings, we are waiting until October to begin our classical learning months, and we are using the first couple of weeks of September to review a bit, and to plan the months ahead. Rather neatly, Calvin is right at the end of several books—Spanish, math, science, and grammar—meaning that when we get home and pick up classical lessons in October, it will be like a fresh start.
But until then, finishing up, reviewing, previewing, and planning ahead.
Blanket surgery
Through the years Blanket has accompanied Calvin just about everywhere. He's been to play dates, parks, restaurants, Iowa, Disney World, Italy, camping trips. Up and down the stairs, in and out of the car, dragged through just about everything. He has been washed, but probably not as often as the sanitary police would recommend, and I realized just last week that I couldn't actually remember the last time he'd taken a good swim and decided that meant the time had come.
There are actually two Blankets, and one Mini Blanket, that are a pretty important part of our family. Before Calvin was born my Aunt Lonnie made a set of four identical blankets and four matching burp cloths for me. Over the years two of the larger blankets have gone missing (probably somewhere in the house, or a travel bag, etc.), and one of the burp cloths has been appropriated as "Minis". The two remaining blankets have, of course, taken the brunt of Calvin's adoration and devotion. They show all the signs of being greatly loved, bringing to mind stories like The Velveteen Rabbit, or Nothing.
I find something endearing about Calvin's continued besottedness. The bigger he gets, the more I melt when I see him lugging that old friend along without a care or concern, or when I check on him at night and find him clutching all three pieces tightly in his sleep. So when he asked me to fix the fraying edges, of course I went right to work. All three Blanket got the full spa treatment, beginning with a gentle bath in the sink, followed by a relaxing dry in the sun, and finishing with a nip here and a tuck there at the sewing machine.
Calvin called it Blanket surgery. And just like that, an old friend was restored, and a little boy was delighted.
Have I ever mentioned that on occasion he strongly reminds me of Linus?
The spaces between
Life is punctuated by routine.
Invariably we start the day with breakfast and an adios to Jon on his way to work. Our morning is about table work—the school lessons that we actually sit down and do, like math, spelling, grammar, geography, etc. (and not all homeschoolers do this, by the way, but my kid happens to like the predictability of it). And we squeak in piano, and some time to read, or build, or play. Then there's lunch, and a chance to get outside if the weather is good, or play games, watch videos, read, sing, build, what have you, in the afternoon. Then Jon comes home and we soak up our time with him before going to bed and starting all over again the next day.
This is our routine. It is the punctuation that keeps us on track, and punctuation is good because it keeps you on track. It's also good because it helps you tell or read the story with enough predictability that you can enjoy the unpredictable—the story that happens in the spaces between, like a surprise afternoon in the middle of a work week when our whole family gets to drop what we're doing and head to the park to enjoy the weather together. We like together.
Life happens in the spaces between.


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Missouri St Bears (7-5)
@St. Mary's, Calif. Gaels (11-2)
Friday, December 23
Orleans Arena - Las Vegas, NV
Attendance: None
Missouri St
St. Mary's, Calif.
Las Vegas, NV (Sports Network) - Matthew Dellavedova and Brad Waldow each had 17 points for the Gaels as Saint Mary's topped the Missouri State Bears 77-61 in a final round game of the Las Vegas Classic at Orleans Arena.
Dellavedova also dished out eight assists for Saint Mary's (11-2). Stephen Holt contributed 16 points and Jorden Page chipped in 10. Rob Jones grabbed 10 rebounds in the winning effort.
Caleb Patterson paced Missouri State (7-5) with 18 points on 8-of-12 shooting from the field. Jarmar Gulley finished with 14 and Kyle Weems scored 11 and pulled down seven rebounds.
Saint Mary's scored 24 points in the paint and outrebounded the Bears by five to take a 33-29 lead into the intermission. Missouri State shot 46.4 percent from the field and 2-of-8 from long range while the Gaels made 50 percent of their shots from the field and 3-of-5 from beyond the arc in the first 20 minutes.
The Gaels extended their lead by shooting 41.7 percent from the field and attempting 11 more shots than the Bears in the second half.
Saint Mary's did a great job moving the ball offensively as it finished with 15 assists and just six turnovers. The Bears had seven assists to along with eight turnovers.
Littlewood, Staffen, Ramos;


text: Weitzman calls for executive, legislature to act on budget deficit By: Michael H. Samuels August 4, 2008 Comments Off Nassau County's leaders need to take quick, decisive action to help sidestep a potential budget crisis in the county, County Comptroller Howard Weitzman said Monday. Weitzman called for County Executive Tom Suozzi and the Legislature to take a series of measures. Those include administrative approval of clerk fees, reduction in general expenditures, additional state and ... Subscribe Login Email Address: Password: Already a paid subscriber but not registered for online access yet? For instructions on how to get premium web access, click here.Forgot your password? Print, Digital & Mobile1 Year$129 Digital & Mobile Only1 Month Intro Rate$2.99----------1 Year$99 Digital & Mobile Only1 Month Intro Rate$2.99----------1 Year$99 Print, Digital & Mobile1 Year$129 Print, Digital & Mobile1 Year$129----------Digital & Mobile Only1 Month Intro Rate$2.99----------1 Year$99 Share this:EmailPrintFacebookTwitterGoogle +1 Howard Weitzman Nassau taxes 2:33 pm Mon, August 4, 2008 Long Island Business News Michael H. Samuels


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Texting affects ability to interpret words
(Medical Xpress) -- Research designed to understand the effect of text messaging on language found that texting has a negative impact on people's linguistic ability to interpret and accept words.
Text messaging, or texting is a colloquial term referring to the exchange of brief written messages between mobile phones, over cellular networks. While the term most often refers to messages sent using the Short Message Service (SMS), it has been extended to include messages containing image, video, and sound content, such as MMS messages. Individual messages are referred to as "text messages" or "texts".
The most common application of the service is person-to-person messaging, but text messages are also used to interact with automated systems, such as ordering products and services for mobile phones, or participating in contests. Advertisers and service providers use texts to notify mobile phone users about promotions, payment due dates, and other notifications that were previously sent by post or left as voicemail. There are internet services available that allow users to send text messages free of direct charge to the sender.
This text uses material from Wikipedia licensed under CC BY-SA


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Agriculture in South Asia
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Efficient Water Use Reduces Costs and Increases Agricultural Cultivation
The 6-kilometer (km) long canal system irrigates 210 hectares of land. So far, at least 3 km of the canal surface has been cemented and improved with support from the Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation... Show More +
Clean Air and Healthy Lungs: How to Better Tackle Air Pollution
Better data monitoringThe report also found that with a few exceptions the World Bank's projects that were reviewed did not include air pollution control as a primary objective. As a result, these projects... Show More +
India - National Rural Livelihoods Project : P104164 - Implementation Status Results Report : Sequence 08
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The Government of Bihar (GoB) has received assistance from the World Bank, effective from January 2011, to address the emergency needs arising out of Kosi floods through... Show More +
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India - IN Punjab Rural Water Supply and Sanitation : P090592 - Implementation Status Results Report : Sequence 20
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The development objective of the Punjab Rural Water Supply and Sanitation Sector Improvement Project for India is to improve rural water supply and sanitation services... Show More +
ContextUrbanization, industrialization and motorization have intensified pollution, especially in developing countries. Vehicle exhaust, untreated wastewater, nitrogen fertilizer runoff, e-waste, dirty... Show More +
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Access to All-weather Road Changes Village Life
Zalmai Azimi, owner of a store located towards the end of Jalwarcha road, close to Herat City, agrees that the double bituminous surface treatment (DBST) road has been good for everyone. His business has... Show More +
The Taste of Afghan Honey Proves Irresistible
Dr. Rahimi started his beekeeping business in 2009 with only 10 hives. He has invested nearly $80,000 in the business, and today he owns two apiaries and also raises bees at home.But according to Dr Rahimi,... Show More +
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"We used to transport the crops with donkeys. The donkey would sink up to its knees in mud. Some of our products such as tomatoes would rot along the way and no one would buy them," Najibullah recounts.The... Show More +


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Pockrandt Lumber and Fuel Company was a landmark business in the Park during most of the 20th Century. Located at 6325 Highway 7, the firm was situated on a triangular piece of property between the railroad tracks and Highway 7, across from the High School (Central). It was well positioned to take advantage of the Park's housing boom following World War II.
Burnham-Kilbourne built a new office and store at 4318 Upton Ave. So. in Minneapolis in 1909, as cited in the Improvement Bulletin of Minneapolis on October 23, 1909. There may have been a fire at the St. Louis Park lot in
1910. There is an ad for the Kilbourne Lumber Company, St. Louis Park and Lake Harriet (4318 Upton), in 1914. POCKRANDT
The lumber yard was
rebuilt to about half its eventual size. A new main
building and the area west of Dakota was built in 1936 or '37. An undated news blurb
indicated that the offices were remodeled, Len Bjorklund was
the manager, and there were 17 employees. Their slogan
and policy was "The BEST at LEAST for CASH." It is unclear when the company closed. It is last
listed in the St. Louis Park directory in 1966.
However, in 1967, City Council minutes indicate that the
company requested that Dakota Ave. south of
Highway 7 be vacated. Dakota at that location would
have run right through the property. It may have
been that the company sought to consolidate the property in
order to sell it.
Julius Edward Pockrandt was born on
November 4, 1874 of German parents. His birthplace is
variously reported in the Census as Russia (1910), Prussia
(1920), Russia (1930), and Germany (1940), reflecting
political changes in his homeland. He came to the U.S.
in the 1890s (also variously reported). He married
wife Florence on August 12, 1902 in Minneapolis.
Minneapolis directories from 1903 to 1910 report his
occupation as bookkeeper. The 1910 Census reports his
occupation as bookkeeper for a lumber company. From
about 1916 to 1919 the family lived in St. Louis Park -
otherwise they lived in Minneapolis. |
Home  St. Louis Park History History
Index   About the Society
Research Resources This information comes from a variety of sources: newspapers, books, yearbooks, phone directories, interviews, etc. Given the varied sources, we cannot guarantee that all of this information is correct, and welcome any additions and corrections. Please contact us with your contributions and comments. |


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After a week of no drinking, my wife's old habits returned with a vengeance during a four-day bender. It all culminated with me telling her she had crossed my boundaries and I'd had enough.
After consulting with my father, my Al-Anon sponsor and an Al-Anon friend, I found the strength and courage to do what was right and called 911. The ambulance, sheriff's deputies and a fire engine were all at my house Sunday morning trying to revive my wife.
I didn't go see her in the hospital. My sister-in-law said my wife's blood alcohol content level was .46 and the nurse told her, "Whoever called the ambulance probably saved her life."
That evening, when the hospital released her, my in-laws brought her back to the house and guided her to bed.
"She needs to be in a treatment facility," my mother-in-law said. "You call and get all the information. Maybe you can take her tomorrow."
I thought about everything that's happened and all I've been through.
That's when I pleaded with my in-laws to take her back with them to another state. They did. That was four days ago. Yesterday, I texted my wife that she wasn't welcome back into our lives until she's sober. I can't put myself or the kids through this anymore.
When she promised she'd get better, I asked how she planned to accomplish that goal. "I don't know, one day at a time," she texted back.
I asked if she had considered professional help. "Yes, but we're waiting for you to get us the information."
"No," I wrote back. "This isn't my addiction or my problem. I'm not going to be a messenger between the treatment facility and you and your mom. I'm not calling."
Her response was two words: "Ok. Fine."
I went to an Alanon meeting yesterday, connected with my sponsor and another Alanon friend.
I think I'm doing the right thing, but it's so damn hard and hurts so much.
Now, time to get on with my life.
Yes, it hurts, but it also hurts to live with an active alcoholic, namely, with the dishonestly, anger (hers and yours), blaming, and manipulation. It is corrosive for you and for your children.
Take a deep breath. Move forward. Peace to you.
I'm so sorry for your pain, but you're doing the right thing. Keep going to those meetings and listening to the people in your life who are helping you.
@blue yonder: I agree I can't have the kids around an active drinker. It's too much and too damaging.
@ froggy: Vortex of chaos is an apt description. I'll keep listening to those around me.
@Walter Blevins: My wife told me on Sunday morning that she didn't want to be my burden any longer. I think this is the end of the marriage. I mean, really, even when she was sober, she chose to use that time to have an affair with a guy in AA. This isn't the life I want.
@Midwest Muse: I agree that she needs to own this and that's what I told my mother-in-law. My wife needs to make her own decision to get better, we can't do it for her.
@Darla: (I have a cousin by that name.) Thanks for the positive thoughts.