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The Looming Fiscal Cliff
NEW YORK ( TheStreet) -- I've not thought much about the "fiscal cliff," because I thought Washington wouldn't dare risk shooting the U.S. economy so unnecessarily in the foot. I imagined that long standing and dogmatic yammering of positions from both sides of the aisle were mere political rhetoric in an election year.
Now I'm not so sure.
The "fiscal cliff" -- the name for automatic spending cuts and the repeal of tax cuts that are set to take place at the end of the year if nothing is agreed -- looks far more likely an outcome than it did even a few weeks ago and would be a disaster for the stock markets as well as our economy.
The fading hope is that an agreement, or at least another compromise that puts off a full budgetary restructuring deal, can be found before the end of 2012 -- a presidential election year.
Surprisingly, that seems less and less likely particularly from the recent comments of Democrats, who have begun to talk about the fiscal cliff as an acceptable outcome -- see the recent writings of former Joe Biden adviser Jared Bernstein and former DNC Chairman and Vermont Governor Howard Dean. This is some dangerous talk, even if the Democrats are playing some crazy game of economic chicken. The last time we saw both parties point their cars at each other and step on the gas, we got a last-minute deal on the debt limit and a downgrade of U.S. Treasuries -- lovely. This time, there is a political argument that the Republicans are equally happy about seeing this disaster unfold: The prospect of capital gains taxes increasing threefold without a deal before the end of the year would precipitate the largest "tax-profit" selling spree of stocks ever seen, dropping the indices at least 10% to 15%, in my view. Such a drop in the stock market would be a strong argument for the GOP that even the stock market is confirming a failed economic policy of the sitting president. The question becomes: When does the investing public decide that not even a short-term deal is likely coming? When do they begin to lock in gains that they will pay 15% on instead of a possible 39.6%?Check Out Our Best Services for Investors
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Adventures in Blago-land
As all political junkies know by now, one lone juror has–so far–kept Rod Blagojevich from becoming the Pin-up Pol for those enjoying an expense-paid stay at the government's finer gray-bar hotels. Even though the feds pledge to re-try him soon and he faces sentencing from a perjury conviction, those of us who reside in the Land of Lincoln will be facing yet another string of his impromptu babble-thons where he whines about how the people of Illinois were robbed of his heavy-hair goodness.
Now that I have that out of my system, I remind you that this Quick-Shot series of polls are designed to measure the mood of Independent voters. We polled three congressional races and the race for U.S. Senate in Illinois to find out.
It's Bleepin' Golden – Illinois U.S. Senate: Alexi Giannoulias (D) vs. Mark Kirk (R)
What a weird race this turned out to be. Alexi Giannoulias' well-documented woes from his family-owned bank and Mark Kirk's spiced-up military resumé have resulted in two wounded choices come November. (The Green Party's LeAlan Jones is underfunded and has not found a way to break through the political clutter.)
Let's see what voters are saying at this early point in the election season:
Illinois Senate
Date of Poll: 8/4/2010Participants: 998 registered voters
Margin of Error: ±3.11%
SENATE CHOICE | Total | Democrat | Republican | Independent |
(R) Mark Kirk | 39.19% | 12.32% | 74.48% | 37.65% |
(D) Alexi Giannoulias | 32.68% | 64.43% | 4.20% | 22.84% |
Other/Unsure | 28.13% | 23.25% | 21.33% | 39.51% |
As you can see, Kirk is enjoying a big boost from Independent voters, and is getting more of his fair share (12+%) of Democrats. Like all Illinois statewide races, the turnout in Chicago and suburban Cook County will pay a huge role in the final outcome. Our internal numbers show that this is a bit closer than this poll indicates, and all here believe that it will tighten up sooner than later.
Third Time's the Charm? Illinois CD 10: Dan Seals (D) vs. Robert Dold (R)
Illinois 10 has been in Republican hands since 1980 when John Porter was first elected. However, CD 10's current member of Congress, Mark Kirk, won some very close elections by skillfully reflecting this area's vastly changed, more moderate demographic on many bills that weren't exactly in the GOP mainstream. Kirk's candidacy for the Senate could bode well for the Democrats. Republican nominee Robert Dold is the owner of a pest-control business (imagine the fun he could have with TV ads with that!), and looks the role of a former Eagle Scout and community leader. He won his primary over some very skilled and better-known challengers, but clearly presents a departure from Kirk's more moderate views.
His opponent is Democrat Dan Seals, an accomplished businessman and son of a former member of the Chicago Bears who is running for the third time in this district. As we mentioned, this district has morphed into a much more moderate demographic over the past decade. Will that be enough to overcome Independents' trend to the right come November?
Let's look at the results:
Illinois CD 10
Date of Poll: 8/4/2010Participants: 1,015 registered voters
Margin of Error: ±3.11%
Total | Democrat | Republican | Independent | |
(R) Robert Dold | 40.02% | 10.03% | 82.72% | 36.66% |
(D) Dan Seals | 43.24% | 78.51% | 8.09% | 35.19% |
Other/Unsure | 16.74% | 11.46% | 9.19% | 28.15% |
It's still very early, but the nearly even split among Independent voters may make it hard for Republicans to maintain this seat. Dan Seals, who made his fair share of rookie mistakes in earlier races, now seems to firing on all cylinders. Dold, however, is a quick learner, so don't expect a blowout here…and the trend is Dold's friend. Plus, some believe that Seals' best shot was 2008 when Barack Obama swept through his home state.
In the Blue-Dog House? Illinois CD 11: Incumbent Debbie Halvorson (R) vs Adam Kinzinger (R)
Illinois' CD 11 elected Democrat Debbie Halvorson in the wake of the Obama tidal wave that hit his home state. Halvorson is no slouch as a politician, but in her first term has supported most of the social programs that may work well in House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's district, but riles CD 11's somewhat conservative-leaning mix of blue and white-collar voters. Adam Kinzinger is a newcomer, and has made up for whatever lack of political experience he has with an incredible work ethic and a dream resume (strong military background and was named "Hero of the Year" by the Wisconsin Red Cross for wrestling a knife-wielding man to the ground and disarming him after the creep had cut the throat of a woman on a street in downtown Milwaukee). Halvorson has tried to nitpick Kinzinger's resume to no avail.
Here's what voters are thinking at this point in time:
Illinois CD 11
Date of Poll: 8/4/2010Participants: 1,015 registered voters
Margin of Error: ±3.07%
Total | Democrat | Republican | Independent | |
(D) Debbie Halvorson | 31.72% | 70.03% | 5.90% | 21.74% |
(R) Adam Kinzinger | 51.64% | 13.03% | 86.34% | 53.62% |
Other/Unsure | 16.63% | 16.94% | 7.76% | 24.64% |
Confirmation of trouble on Halvorson's campaign came yesterday when it was announced that she had fired her campaign manager. It's way too early to say this is over, but things are looking pretty good for young Mr. Kinzinger.
Denny's Den – Illinois CD 14: Incumbent Bill Foster (D) vs. Randy Hultgren (R)
Illinois CD 14 was the long-time seat for former Speaker of the House Denny Hastert (R). When the seat was won by Democrat Bill Foster in a special election and in the General, many GOPsters viewed it as a colossal rip in the universe. But in reality, Republicans put up a candidate with lots of baggage, and not enough credit was given to Foster who is a very bright man indeed. Foster was previously a research scientist for Fermilab where he dealt with quarks and particle accelerators–a huge contrast from his opponent who was a smart, but blunt businessman. Foster may be able to hum crossword puzzles, but some of his votes for big-government initiatives have provided fodder for his opponents in a district that has a moderately conservative core with growing pockets of progressives.
Randy Hultgren is a state senator who beat Hastert's son, Ethan, in the primary despite having almost no money and being up against the former Speaker's political juggernaut. The affable Hultgren again finds himself far behind in the money, but is reportedly working hard…as is his opponent.
Let's see what the latest numbers show:
Illinois CD 14
Date of Poll: 8/4/2010Participants: 1,028 registered voters
Margin of Error: ±3.05%
Total | Democrat | Republican | Independent | |
(D) Bill Foster | 37.07% | 76.49% | 8.41% | 32.42% |
(R) Randy Hultgren | 44.09% | 7.72% | 77.18% | 42.31% |
Other/Unsure | 18.84% | 15.79% | 14.41% | 25.27% |
Looking deeper into our internal numbers, we think it's safe to say that this is bit closer than the head-to-head numbers indicate. Should Hultgren prove that he's hanging in there, money might flow faster. If not, Foster's huge cash lead will be tough to overcome.

subset: commoncrawl


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Monday, December 10 2007
The Best Hip-Hop of 2007
From Grandmaster Flash & the Furious Five to a dope album named Desire, hip-hop showed growth in 2007.
Thursday, May 28 2009
Big Quarters: From the Home of Brown Babies & White Mothers
An excellent album from the state of Minnesota and a shrewd hip-hop duo.
Sunday, May 13 2007
Big Quarters: Cost of Living
Question: How can hip-hop artists "take it to the old school" but still sound fresh? The answer from Big Quarters: "Like This."


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Holiday Safety Handout
This convenient download includes all of the basics when it comes to keeping your dog healthy and happy during the holidays. more...Clinic Action Guide
The Program Overview guide features clinic talking points in support of year-round heartworm disease prevention. more...Ask Dr. Lauren
Dr. Lauren Olavessen will highlight one common question asked by clients just like yours. more...


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Residents are invited to grab their cowboy hats and boots as Playhouse 395ŌĆÖs production of the Rogers and Hammerstein blockbuster musical ŌĆ£Oklahoma!ŌĆØ stampedes into the historic Bishop Union High School Theater this March with cowboys, cowgirls and farmers kicking up a song and dance storm.
The local cast, led by real-life couple Jenn and Eddie Davis as Laurey and Curly, kicked off rehearsal right after New YearŌĆÖs for the Playhouse 395 spring show.
Veteran Director Martha Reynolds holds the reins, while Diana and Chris Lanane direct the vocals and Bishop Community Band Conductor Mark Hatter leads the live orchestra.
Key cast members for this production include Patti Cook as hilarious Ado Annie, Ron Valenzuela as likable and gullible Will Parker, Chet Baker as creepy Jud Fry, Susan Kunze as the stalwart Aunt Eller and newcomer Cristian Herrera as the shifty but fun peddler Ali Hakim.
Memorable ŌĆ£Oklahoma!ŌĆØ songs such as ŌĆ£Oh What a Beautiful Morning,ŌĆØ ŌĆ£I Just CanŌĆÖt Say NoŌĆØ (also the show motto), ŌĆ£Poor Jud is DeadŌĆØ and of course ŌĆ£Oklahoma!ŌĆØ bring the settling of the West to life and may leave attendees humming for days.
Behind the scenes dozens of volunteers are building and painting sets; hand-creating Western costumes and gathering ranching props, all with the goal of transporting theater-goers to the Oklahoma Territory of the early 1900s.
Over the last three weekends in March only, theater fans will have the opportunity to see some fine rope twirlinŌĆÖ, barn dancinŌĆÖ and even the ŌĆ£Surrey with the fringe on the top.ŌĆØ
Fans will also want to be sure to get out their best Western wear and join the fun because a prize will be given out at each show for the best-dressed cowgirl and cowboy.
Tickets are on sale now and show dates are March 7-9, 14-16 and 21-22.
For tickets or more information, visit www.Playhouse395.com, call (760) 920-9100, or stop by the box office in the Inyo Council for the Arts building at 136 S. Main St. Mondays, Wednesdays or Fridays from 3:30-5:30 p.m.


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New York Motorcycle Roads and Trips
From its majestic mountains, cities and lakes to pastoral farmlands and vineyards, the Empire State has it all! Upstate New York features motorcycle rides meandering through the Adirondack Mountains and the Appalachian Highlands. Between these two upland regions and along the eastern and northern borders, motorcycle rides will take place within a series of lowlands. The state is also blessed with good access to large lakes including Lakes Erie, Ontario, and Champlain and majestic rivers like the Hudson and Allegheny. A great motorcycle ride in New York (NY) state can provide memories to last a lifetime!
new Route. View most popular
February 1, 2015 As soon as you pick up rte 22 from the Kensico Dam, rte 22 transforms from a congested, commercial shopping thoroughfare- laden... Most of the stretch is newly or recently paved. There is a short stretch where you will have 3 or 4 traffic... Rte 22 in Westchester County. Very easy to find: just look directly north of NYC. You will see an interstate spur 684... | |
September 10, 2014 Constantly under the cover of trees through the woods where the roads are constantly snaking between lakes. Lots of places to stop... With the exception of the 3 miles on Rt. 17, every other road has been recently paved and is in literal perfect... Start off at the northernmost section of seven lakes drive which you enter via the traffic circle connecting Rt.6, Palisades Pkwy, and... | |
August 9, 2014 you go through both rural and country sides on this trip. The Eastern part of it is all open road 55 mph... a good portion is re paved and it is mostly all straight lines through with little to no traffic once you hit... Just take route 31 between Baldwinsville and Verona, NY | |
August 8, 2014 This ride takes 7 Lakes Drive through this NY State park and is about 25 miles from NYC mid-town. The road was... This road is one 15 mile across the park with some curves and a few round a bouts. It has open men's... Enter 7 Lakes Drive from Sloatsburg, NY Rt 17 or from Bear Mountain Parkway Circle at Bear Mountain Bridge. | |
June 16, 2014 Nothing too special as scenery goes on this route. A couple of decent spots to look out over some forest/marshland, but that's... Plenty of twists and turns from this small stretch of road. The road is in pretty good shape, with the exception of... From the South: take Goodman St north through Irondequoit. After you pass the intersection of East Ridge Road, the road becomes King's... | |
November 6, 2013 This is great back-road route my friends and I take all the time to bypass the traffic on Sunrise Highway which can... All of these roads are good quality, paved roads, suitable for my big Harley Touring bike, a few sharp turns so be... Starting at Shinnecock Hills, turn left off of Sunrise highway and take Shrubland Road north, then turn left on Barkers island Road,... | |
September 14, 2013 Tracy Road is an isolated stretch of road with nothing entering from either side of the stretch of 7 miles. You will... Tracy road has a lot of tight turns that cant be taken lightly but you can feel confident with the blacktop beneath... Start out from Moriah Center, NY north on Witterbee Road (left at intersection).AT 2.5 miles you will turn left onto Tracy Road... | |
August 17, 2013 This route meanders through the rolling hills and farm lands between Cattaraugus and Allegany Counties. There are a few scenic vistas in... This road has nice pavement the entire route. There aren't any switch backs, twisties or gut wrenching curves, but some nice sweeping... Start in Portville, NY and head north on Rt 305. End near Belfast | |
June 8, 2013 The scenery on this short route feature trees, valleys, farmland. Overall its a quick road between the town of Newark Valley and... Road has sweeping curves and two 90 degree turns near the end. Head out of Newark Valley NY toward Owego NY on rt38. Look for Gaskill rd on your left. | |
May 20, 2013 The park is roughly 17 miles long, covering 14,350 acres of land along the Genesee River, and is close to Castile, NY.... What I can remember it was paved roads but that was 25 years ago. This is just a suggestion since I don't have a motorcyle now. I have not been through the park since 1988. The... | |
April 2, 2013 This is some of the best scenery in NY ... up-state quality at its best. Tree covered highway in some parts, along... The road is really nice and new in some parts and not so nice in others. The Town of Pavilion has recently... You can meet up with the 19 in Brockport, Leroy Pavilion and Warsaw. It runs generally north-south. I have taken it all... | |
October 25, 2012 A scenic ride along side Chittenango Creek up to the Falls. The Fenner area has beautiful farm fields with rolling hills (Can... Falls Boulevard up to Cazenovia is a great road uphill ride with sweeping curves. The roads through the wind farm are quite... Starting off in downtown Chittenango, the route takes you up the beautiful Falls Boulevard, past Chittenango Falls Park (great place to check... | |
September 17, 2012 This is great Sunday afternoon - very green/rural with 5-star food/drink stops! Very green and rural, beautiful twists and lots of water... Perfectly paved rural roads, also the wonderful green racetrack that is the Merritt Parkway. This route starts and ends at the Queens Midtown Tunnel in Manhattan. Head north on FDR drive, continue north on Buckner... | |
August 1, 2012 Woods, rivers, streams, bridges...it's all here. You'll pass right next to Canopus Lake and Boyd Corners Reservoir, cross a bridge over West... Smooth and fast, a couple hiccups here and there with potholes but those are minimal. Good curves that open up to some... From I-84, take the Fishkill NY exit to route 9 south until you get to the intersection of Route 301 - this... | |
April 10, 2012 This route gives you a great selection of views throughout the Catskill Mountains. You pass beautiful reservoirs go through several small country... The road quality ranges from a little rough to freshly paved.The roughest roads are when you are traveling from Grahamsville to Shokan.... The route is a loop so you can start from anywhere. I personally start in Grahamsville, NY which is the furthest south... |
Top 100 Motorcycle Roads
See the top 100 rides & routes in the US according to the MotorcycleRoads.com - ''Riders' Rating'' voting system.
Click hereHow Popular is Motorcycling in Your State
See a state by state rundown of motorcycle popularity in each US state
motorcycle popularity infographic!


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Next: Contributing, Previous: Contact, Up: Overview [Contents][Index]
If you come across some problem and need help you can contact the community as described in Contact. If you think you found a bug, but is not quite sure about it, you can instead ask for support on our support tracker. We will revise your post, advise you and take the appropriate measures. If you are confident you have found a bug, you can submit a bug report directly at our bug tracker. Please, when reporting a bug include enough information for the maintainers to reproduce the problem. Generally speaking, that means:
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