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Antarctic Satellite Meteorology: Applications for Weather Forecasting
Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)
For over 30 years, weather forecasting for the Antarctic continent and adjacent Southern Ocean has relied on weather satellites. Significant advancements in forecasting skill have come via the weather satellite. The advent of the high-resolution ...
Matthew A. Lazzara; Linda M. Keller; Charles R. Stearns; Jonathan E. Thom; George A. Weidner
System Demonstration Multilingual Weather Forecast Generation System
E-Print Network (OSTI)
System Demonstration Multilingual Weather Forecast Generation System Tianfang Yao DongmoZhang Qian (Multilingual Weather Forecasts Assistant) system will be demonstrated. It is developed to generate the multilingual text of the weather forecasts automatically. The raw data from the weather observation can be used
How Do You Like Your Weather?: Using Weather Forecast Data to Improve Short-Term Load Forecasts
This document provides a quick overview of weather forecasts as a data issue in the development of electricity demand forecasts. These are three sections in this Brief: o reasons behind the rise in interest in using weather forecasts in electricity forecasting models, o an overview of what some utilities are doing to evaluate weather forecasts, and o a resource list of weather forecast providers.
Making Forecasts and Weather Normalization Work Together
Electric utility industry restructuring has changed the consistency between weather-normalized sales and energy forecasts. This Technology Review discusses the feasibility of integrating weather normalization and forecasting processes, and addresses whether the conflicting goal of obtaining greater consistency and accuracy with fewer staff resources can be met with more integrated approaches.
Downscaling Extended Weather Forecasts for Hydrologic Prediction
SciTech Connect
Weather and climate forecasts are critical inputs to hydrologic forecasting systems. The National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) issues 8-15 days outlook daily for the U.S. based on the Medium Range Forecast (MRF) model, which is a global model applied at about 2? spatial resolution. Because of the relatively coarse spatial resolution, weather forecasts produced by the MRF model cannot be applied directly to hydrologic forecasting models that require high spatial resolution to represent land surface hydrology. A mesoscale atmospheric model was used to dynamically downscale the 1-8 day extended global weather forecasts to test the feasibility of hydrologic forecasting through this model nesting approach. Atmospheric conditions of each 8-day forecast during the period 1990-2000 were used to provide initial and boundary conditions for the mesoscale model to produce an 8-day atmospheric forecast for the western U.S. at 30 km spatial resolution. To examine the impact of initialization of the land surface state on forecast skill, two sets of simulations were performed with the land surface state initialized based on the global forecasts versus land surface conditions from a continuous mesoscale simulation driven by the NCEP reanalysis. Comparison of the skill of the global and downscaled precipitation forecasts in the western U.S. showed higher skill for the downscaled forecasts at all precipitation thresholds and increasingly larger differences at the larger thresholds. Analyses of the surface temperature forecasts show that the mesoscale forecasts generally reduced the root-mean-square error by about 1.5 C compared to the global forecasts, because of the much better resolved topography at 30 km spatial resolution. In addition, initialization of the land surface states has large impacts on the temperature forecasts, but not the precipitation forecasts. The improvements in forecast skill using downscaling could be potentially significant for improving hydrologic forecasts for managing river basins.
Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Qian, Yun
Segmenting Time Series for Weather Forecasting
turbines. In the domain of meteorology, time series data produced by numerical weather prediction (NWP) models is summarised as weather forecast texts. In the domain of gas turbines, sensor data from an operational gas turbine is summarised for the maintenance engineers. More details on SUMTIME have been
Reiter, Ehud
Quantification of Uncertainity in Fire-Weather Forecasts: Some Results of Operational and Experimental Forecasting Programs
Fire-weather forecasts (FWFs) prepared by National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters on an operational basis are traditionally expressed in categorical terms. However, to make rational and optimal use of such forecasts, fire managers need ...
Barbara G. Brown; Allan H. Murphy
Post-processing of ensemble weather forecasts using a stochastic weather generator
This study proposes a new statistical method for post-processing ensemble weather forecasts using a stochastic weather generator. Key parameters of the weather generator were linked to the ensemble forecast means for both precipitation and ...
Jie Chen; Fran�ois P. Brissette; Zhi Li
Dynamic Algorithm for Space Weather Forecasting System
We propose to develop a dynamic algorithm that intelligently analyzes existing solar weather data and constructs an increasingly more accurate equation/algorithm for predicting solar weather accurately in real time. This dynamic algorithm analyzes a wealth of data derived from scientific research and provides increasingly accurate solar forecasts. As the database of information grows over time, this algorithm perfects itself and reduces forecast uncertainties. This will provide a vastly more effective way of processing existing data for practical use in the public and private sectors. Specifically, we created an algorithm that stores data from several sources in a way that is useable, we created the ?dynamic algorithm? used for creating accurate/effective forecasts, and we have performed preliminary benchmarks on this algorithm. The preliminary benchmarks yield surprisingly effective results thus far?forecasts have been made 8-16 hours into the future with significant magnitude and trend accuracy, which is a vast improvement over current methods employed.
Fischer, Luke D.
The Effectiveness of Weather Forecasts in Decision Making: An Example
Decision models involving prescribed fire (the use of fire as a silvicultural tool) were used to analyze the utility of four types of weather information as forecasts: climatology, current weather observations (used as a persistence forecast), ...
R. William Furman
Potential Economic Value of Ensemble-Based Surface Weather Forecasts
The possible economic value of the quantification of uncertainty in future ensemble-based surface weather forecasts is investigated using a formal, idealized decision model. Current, or baseline, weather forecasts are represented by probabilistic ...
Daniel S. Wilks; Thomas M. Hamill
Early Warnings of Severe Weather from Ensemble Forecast Information
A system has been developed to give probabilistic warnings of severe-weather events for the United Kingdom (UK) on a regional and national basis, based on forecast output from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ...
T. P. Legg; K. R. Mylne
Precipitation and Temperature Forecast Performance at the Weather Prediction Center
The role of the human forecaster in improving upon the accuracy of numerical weather prediction is explored using multi-year verification of human-generated short-range precipitation forecasts and medium-range maximum temperature forecasts from ...
David R. Novak; Christopher Bailey; Keith Brill; Patrick Burke; Wallace Hogsett; Robert Rausch; Michael Schichtel
Diversity in Interpretations of Probability: Implications for Weather Forecasting
Over the last years, probability weather forecasts have become increasingly popular due in part to the development of ensemble forecast systems. Despite its widespread use in atmospheric sciences, probability forecasting remains a subtle and ...
Ram�n de El�a; Ren� Laprise
An Experiment in Mesoscale Weather Forecasting in the Michigan Area
During an experiment in mesoscale weather forecasting in the Michigan area, consensus improved over NWS guidance in maximum/minimum temperature and probability of precipitation forecasts out to 24 hours. Forecasts were generally best in the ...
Dennis G. Baker
MOUNTAIN WEATHER PREDICTION: PHENOMENOLOGICAL CHALLENGES AND FORECAST METHODOLOGY Michael P. Meyers of the American Meteorological Society Mountain Weather and Forecasting Monograph Draft from Friday, May 21, 2010 of weather analysis and forecasting in complex terrain with special emphasis placed on the role of humans
Steenburgh, Jim
State of the Science FACT SHEET Weather Forecast Uncertainty
State of the Science FACT SHEET Weather Forecast Uncertainty December, 2009 This document represents the state of the science of quantifying and communicating weather forecast uncertainty. Decisions can be improved by better understanding the uncertainties in the weather forecasts. NOAA seeks to help
Realizations of Daily Weather in Forecast Seasonal Climate
Stochastic daily weather time series models (?�weather generators�?) are parameterized consistent with both local climate and probabilistic seasonal forecasts. Both single-station weather generators, and spatial networks of coherently operating ...
D. S. Wilks
Severe and Convective Weather: A Central Region Forecasting Challenge
This paper is one of a series of papers dealing with operational weather forecasting within the Central Region of the National Weather Service. It focuses on the primary Central Region warm season weather producer, the thunderstorm. Some of the ...
Richard P. McNulty
Weather forecasting : the next generation : the potential use and implementation of ensemble forecasting
This thesis discusses ensemble forecasting, a promising new weather forecasting technique, from various viewpoints relating not only to its meteorological aspects but also to its user and policy aspects. Ensemble forecasting ...
Goto, Susumu
What Is a Good Forecast? An Essay on the Nature of Goodness in Weather Forecasting
Differences of opinion exist among forecasters�and between forecasters and users�regarding the meaning of the phrase �good (bad) weather forecasts.� These differences of opinion are fueled by a lack of clarity and/or understanding concerning the ...
Allan H. Murphy
Downscaling Ensemble Weather Predictions for Improved Week-2 Hydrologic Forecasting
This study investigates the use of large-scale ensemble weather predictions provided by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System [GFS; formerly known as Medium-Range Forecast (MRF)] for improving week-2 ...
Xiaoli Liu; Paulin Coulibaly
Skill in Precipitation Forecasting in the National Weather Service
All known long-term records of forecasting performance for different types of precipitation forecasts in the National Weather Service were examined for relative skill and secular trends in skill. The largest upward trends were achieved by local ...
Jerome P. Charba; William H. Klein
The Application of Signal Detection Theory to Weather Forecasting Behavior
A variety of measures are used to judge the skill and accuracy with which forecasters predict the weather and to verify forecasts: Such measures can confound accuracy with decision strategy and sometimes give conflicting indications of ...
Lewis O. Harvey Jr.; Kenneth R. Hammond; Cynthia M. Lusk; Ernest F. Mross
Bayesian Approach to Decision Making Using Ensemble Weather Forecasts
The economic value of ensemble-based weather or climate forecasts is generally assessed by taking the ensembles at �face value.� That is, the forecast probability is estimated as the relative frequency of occurrence of an event among a limited ...
Richard W. Katz; Martin Ehrendorfer
Exploiting Weather Forecast Information in the Operation of ...
Mar 4, 2009 ... On-Line Economic Optimization of Energy Systems Using Weather Forecast Information. Victor M Zavala (vzavala ***at*** mcs.anl.gov)
Validation of Global Weather Forecast and Climate Models Over...
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Validation of Global Weather Forecast and Climate Models Over the North Slope of Alaska Xie, Shaocheng Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Klein, Stephen Lawrence Livermore...
NOS Point Forecast Guidance to Weather and Ocean Conditions ...
NOS Point Forecast Guidance to Weather and Ocean Conditions Ocean Data Tools Technical Guide Map Gallery Regional Planning Feedback Ocean You are here Data.gov Communities ...
Optimization Online - Data Assimilation in Weather Forecasting: A ...
Feb 14, 2007 ... Data Assimilation in Weather Forecasting: A Case Study in PDE-Constrained Optimization. M. Fisher(Mike.Fisher ***at*** ecmwf.int)
Economic Impacts of Advanced Weather Forecasting on Energy ...
Mar 5, 2010 ... Abstract: We analyze the impacts of adopting advanced weather forecasting systems at different levels of the decision-making hierarchy of the�...
Point Forecast Guidance to Weather and Ocean Conditions Ocean Data Tools Technical Guide Map Gallery Regional Planning Feedback Ocean You are here Data.gov Communities Ocean...
TEACHMET: An Expert System for Teaching Weather Forecasting
Students or weather forecasting need to learn to identify efficiently the information relevant to the elements they predict. One way students learn these skills is by engaging in discussions of interesting weather situations as they occur. In ...
Nathan M. Reiss; James C. Hofmann
The New Digital Forecast Database of the National Weather Service
The National Weather Service (NWS) has entered a new era in the production and dissemination of weather information and service to the nation. No longer are textual forecasts the primary medium of dissemination, but a digital database of official ...
Harry R. Glahn; David P. Ruth
A Survey of the Use of National Weather Service Forecasts by Television Weather Forecasters in the United States
This investigation was undertaken to determine how different the weather forecasts of telecasters are from those of the National Weather Service for the same areas and times, and the sources of information telecasters use when they modify the NWS ...
Dennis M. Driscoll
Communicating Uncertainty in Weather Forecasts: A Survey of the U.S. Public
Weather forecasts are inherently uncertain, and meteorologists have information about weather forecast uncertainty that is not readily available to most forecast users. Yet effectively communicating forecast uncertainty to nonmeteorologists ...
Rebecca E. Morss; Julie L. Demuth; Jeffrey K. Lazo
Seasonal Winter Weather Forecast for UK December 2000 -February 2001
Seasonal Winter Weather Forecast for UK December 2000 - February 2001 Summary and Verification of Authors' Seasonal Forecasts Issued: 23rd March, 2001 by Mark Saunders, Tony Hamilton, and Steve George and less windy winter than average. Forecasts proved successful for temperature and rainfall but windiness
Saunders, Mark
Whither the Weather Analysis and Forecasting Process?
An argument is made that if human forecasters are to continue to maintain a skill advantage over steadily improving model and guidance forecasts, then ways have to be found to prevent the deterioration of forecaster skills through disuse. The ...
Lance F. Bosart
Evaluation of numerical weather prediction for intra-day solar forecasting in the continental United States
MOS),�Numerical�Weather�Prediction�(NWP),�Solar�Forecasting�of�numerical�weather�prediction�for�intra?day�solar�solar�energy�applications�based�on�aerosol�chemical�transport�and� numerical�weather�
Mathiesen, Patrick; Kleissl, Jan
A high-resolution, cloud-assimilating numerical weather prediction model for solar irradiance forecasting
Mathiesen, Patrick; Collier, Craig; Kleissl, Jan
Long-Range Weather Forecasting Using an Analog Approach
An analog selection method relying an the coincidence of main features (large ridge lines) in the Northern Hemisphere is presented and used for making 30-day weather forecasts for Hungary. Numerous analog model trials were tested, with the aid of ...
Zoltan Toth
How can Weather-Forecasting Facilitate the Improvement of Moist...
Weather-Forecasting Facilitate the Improvement of Moist Processes in Climate Models? Speaker(s): Stephen A. Klein Date: May 22, 2008 - 12:00pm Location: 90-3122 Seminar HostPoint...
Weather Regimes and Forecast Errors in the Pacific Northwest
Despite overall improvements in numerical weather prediction and data assimilation, large short-term forecast errors of sea level pressure and 2-m temperature still occur. This is especially true for the west coast of North America where short-...
Lynn A. McMurdie; Joseph H. Casola
Weather Forecasting by Humans�Heuristics and Decision Making
The decision-making literature contains considerable information about how humans approach tasks involving uncertainty using heuristics. Although there is some reason to believe that weather forecasters are not identical in all respects to the ...
Charles A. Doswell III
Ultraviolet Index Forecasts Issued by the National Weather Service
The National Weather Service (NWS), in collaboration with the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), now issues an Ultraviolet (UV) index forecast. The UV index (UVI) is a mechanism by which the American public is forewarned of the next day's ...
Craig S. Long; Alvin J. Miller; Hai-Tien Lee; Jeannette D. Wild; Richard C. Przywarty; Drusilia Hufford
Regional Climate�Weather Research and Forecasting Model
The CWRF is developed as a climate extension of the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) by incorporating numerous improvements in the representation of physical processes and integration of external (top, surface, lateral) forcings that are ...
Xin-Zhong Liang; Min Xu; Xing Yuan; Tiejun Ling; Hyun I. Choi; Feng Zhang; Ligang Chen; Shuyan Liu; Shenjian Su; Fengxue Qiao; Yuxiang He; Julian X. L. Wang; Kenneth E. Kunkel; Wei Gao; Everette Joseph; Vernon Morris; Tsann-Wang Yu; Jimy Dudhia; John Michalakes
MLWFA: A Multilingual Weather Forecast Text Generation Tianfang YAO Dongmo ZHANG Qian WANG
MLWFA: A Multilingual Weather Forecast Text Generation System1 Tianfang YAO Dongmo ZHANG Qian WANG generation; Weather forecast generation system Abstract In this demonstration, we present a system for multilingual text generation in the weather forecast domain. Multilingual Weather Forecast Assistant (MLWFA
Wu, Dekai
Integration of Climate and Weather Information for Improving 15-Day-Ahead Accumulated Precipitation Forecasts
Skillful medium-range weather forecasts are critical for water resources planning and management. This study aims to improve 15-day-ahead accumulated precipitation forecasts by combining biweekly weather and disaggregated climate forecasts. A ...
Hui Wang; A. Sankarasubramanian; Ranji S. Ranjithan
Building simulation weather forecast files for predictive control strategies
Model-Based Predictive Control (MPC) has received significant attention in recent years as a tool for load management in buildings. MPC is based on predicting the response of a system based on knowledge of future inputs, such as weather and occupancy. ... Keywords: EPW files, building simulation, predictive control, weather forecast
Jos�. A. Candanedo; �ric Paradis; Meli Stylianou
Verification of The Weather Channel Probability of Precipitation Forecasts
The Weather Channel (TWC) is a leading provider of weather information to the general public. In this paper the reliability of their probability of precipitation (PoP) forecasts over a 14-month period at 42 locations across the United States is ...
J. Eric Bickel; Seong Dae Kim
Weather and Forecasting Challenges in the Pacific Region of the National Weather Service
The large area of responsibility covered by the Pacific Region of the National Weather Service provides a unique set of challenges to operational forecasters. Extratropical, subtropical, and tropical meteorological phenomena on a wide range of ...
Kevin R. Kodama; Steven Businger
Monthly Weather Forecasts in a Pest Forecasting Context: Downscaling, Recalibration, and Skill Improvement
Monthly weather forecasts (MOFCs) were shown to have skill in extratropical continental regions for lead times up to 3 weeks, in particular for temperature and if weekly averaged. This skill could be exploited in practical applications for ...
Martin Hirschi; Christoph Spirig; Andreas P. Weigel; Pierluigi Calanca; J�rg Samietz; Mathias W. Rotach
Computer Generation of Marine Weather Forecast Text
MARWORDS is a natural language text generation system which has been developed to synthesize marine forecasts for the Davis Strait area in Northern Canada. It uses standard manually produced predictions of wind speed, air temperature, and other ...
E. Goldberg; R. Kittredge; A. Polgu�re
WRF-Fire: Coupled Weather�Wildland Fire Modeling with the Weather Research and Forecasting Model
A wildland fire-behavior module, named WRF-Fire, was integrated into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) public domain numerical weather prediction model. The fire module is a surface fire-behavior model that is two-way coupled with the ...
Janice L. Coen; Marques Cameron; John Michalakes; Edward G. Patton; Philip J. Riggan; Kara M. Yedinak
Weather-based forecasts of California crop yields
Crop yield forecasts provide useful information to a range of users. Yields for several crops in California are currently forecast based on field surveys and farmer interviews, while for many crops official forecasts do not exist. As broad-scale crop yields are largely dependent on weather, measurements from existing meteorological stations have the potential to provide a reliable, timely, and cost-effective means to anticipate crop yields. We developed weather-based models of state-wide yields for 12 major California crops (wine grapes, lettuce, almonds, strawberries, table grapes, hay, oranges, cotton, tomatoes, walnuts, avocados, and pistachios), and tested their accuracy using cross-validation over the 1980-2003 period. Many crops were forecast with high accuracy, as judged by the percent of yield variation explained by the forecast, the number of yields with correctly predicted direction of yield change, or the number of yields with correctly predicted extreme yields. The most successfully modeled crop was almonds, with 81% of yield variance captured by the forecast. Predictions for most crops relied on weather measurements well before harvest time, allowing for lead times that were longer than existing procedures in many cases.
Lobell, D B; Cahill, K N; Field, C B
Development of a Probabilistic Convective Weather Forecast Threshold Parameter for Flight-Routing Decisions
This paper presents a method for determining a threshold value of probabilistic convective weather forecast data. By synchronizing air traffic data and an experimental probabilistic convective weather forecast product, it was observed that ...
Kapil Sheth; Thomas Amis; Sebastian Gutierrez-Nolasco; Banavar Sridhar; Daniel Mulfinger
The Limited-Area Forecast Systems at the Central Weather Bureau in Taiwan
The Central Weather Bureau (CWB) in Taipei, Republic of China has entered the era of operational numerical weather prediction with the complete online operations of a Global Forecast System (GFS) and the Limited-Area Forecast Systems (LAFS). A ...
Bao-Fong Jeng; Hway-Jen Chen; Shwu-Ching Lin; Tzay-Ming Leou; Melinda S. Peng; Simon W. Chang; Wu-Ron Hsu; C.-P. Chang
Statistical Forecasts Based on the National Meteorological Center's Numerical Weather Prediction System
The production of interpretive weather element forecasts from dynamical model output variables is now an integral part of the centralized guidance systems of weather services throughout the world. The statistical forecasting system in the United ...
Gary M. Carter; J. Paul Dallavalle; Harry R. Glahn
Mesoscale Forecasts Generated from Operational Numerical Weather-Prediction Model Output
A technique called Model Output Enhancement (MOE) has been developed for the generation and display of mesoscale weather forecasts. The MOE technique derives mesoscale or high-resolution (order of 1 km) weather forecasts from synoptic-scale ...
John G. W. Kelley; Joseph M. Russo; Toby N. Carlson; J. Ronald Eyton
A Systematic Economic Approach to Evaluating Public Investment in Observations for Weather Forecasting
Observations of the current state of the atmosphere are a major input to production of modern weather forecasts. As a result, investments in observations are a major component of public expenditures related to weather forecasting. Consequently, ...
Rebecca E. Morss; Kathleen A. Miller; Maxine S. Vasil
Development of Probabilistic Convective Weather Forecast Threshold Parameter for Flight-Routing Decisions
Modelling and forecasting wind speed intensity for weather risk management
The main interest of the wind speed modelling is on the short-term forecast of wind speed intensity and direction. Recently, its relationship with electricity production by wind farms has been studied. In fact, electricity producers are interested in ... Keywords: ARFIMA-FIGARCH, Auto Regressive Gamma, Gamma Auto Regressive, Weather risk management, Wind speed modelling, Wind speed simulation
Massimiliano Caporin; Juliusz Pre
CloudCast: Cloud Computing for Short-Term Weather Forecasts
CloudCast provides clients with personalized short-term weather forecasts based on their current location using cloud services
Dilip Kumar Krishnappa; David Irwin; Eric Lyons; Michael Zink
Weather Forecasting as a Learning Tool in a Large Service Course: Does Practice Make Perfect?
Each spring roughly 200 students, mostly nonmajors, enroll in the Introduction to Meteorology course at Iowa State University and are required to make at least 25 forecasts throughout the semester. The Dynamic Weather Forecaster (DWF) forecasting ...
Elizabeth J. Suess; Cinzia Cervato; William A. Gallus Jr.; Jonathon M. Hobbs
Lessons from Deploying NLG Technology for Marine Weather Forecast Text Generation
Lessons from Deploying NLG Technology for Marine Weather Forecast Text Generation Somayajulu G Language Generation (NLG) system that produces textual weather forecasts for offshore oilrigs from for producing 150 draft forecasts per day, which are then post-edited by forecasters before being released
Sripada, Yaji
Weather forecast-based optimization of integrated energy systems.
In this work, we establish an on-line optimization framework to exploit detailed weather forecast information in the operation of integrated energy systems, such as buildings and photovoltaic/wind hybrid systems. We first discuss how the use of traditional reactive operation strategies that neglect the future evolution of the ambient conditions can translate in high operating costs. To overcome this problem, we propose the use of a supervisory dynamic optimization strategy that can lead to more proactive and cost-effective operations. The strategy is based on the solution of a receding-horizon stochastic dynamic optimization problem. This permits the direct incorporation of economic objectives, statistical forecast information, and operational constraints. To obtain the weather forecast information, we employ a state-of-the-art forecasting model initialized with real meteorological data. The statistical ambient information is obtained from a set of realizations generated by the weather model executed in an operational setting. We present proof-of-concept simulation studies to demonstrate that the proposed framework can lead to significant savings (more than 18% reduction) in operating costs.
Zavala, V. M.; Constantinescu, E. M.; Krause, T.; Anitescu, M.
The Application of a Simple Method for the Verification of Weather Forecasts and Seasonal Variations in Forecast Accuracy
The evaluation of weather forecast accuracy has always been a difficult subject to address for many reasons. In this study, a simple semiobjective method is used to examine the accuracy of zone forecasts issued by the Weldon Spring (Saint Louis) ...
Anthony R. Lupo; Patrick S. Market
Suitability of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model to Predict the June 2005 Fire Weather for Interior Alaska
Standard indices used in the National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS) and Fosberg fire-weather indices are calculated from Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulations and observations in interior Alaska for June 2005. Evaluation ...
Nicole M�lders
Operational forecasting based on a modified Weather Research and Forecasting model
DOE Green Energy (OSTI)
Accurate short-term forecasts of wind resources are required for efficient wind farm operation and ultimately for the integration of large amounts of wind-generated power into electrical grids. Siemens Energy Inc. and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, with the University of Colorado at Boulder, are collaborating on the design of an operational forecasting system for large wind farms. The basis of the system is the numerical weather prediction tool, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model; large-eddy simulations and data assimilation approaches are used to refine and tailor the forecasting system. Representation of the atmospheric boundary layer is modified, based on high-resolution large-eddy simulations of the atmospheric boundary. These large-eddy simulations incorporate wake effects from upwind turbines on downwind turbines as well as represent complex atmospheric variability due to complex terrain and surface features as well as atmospheric stability. Real-time hub-height wind speed and other meteorological data streams from existing wind farms are incorporated into the modeling system to enable uncertainty quantification through probabilistic forecasts. A companion investigation has identified optimal boundary-layer physics options for low-level forecasts in complex terrain, toward employing decadal WRF simulations to anticipate large-scale changes in wind resource availability due to global climate change.
Lundquist, J; Glascoe, L; Obrecht, J
Evaluation of the Weather Research and Forecasting model for two frost events
Meso-local-scale weather information could be used as a guideline for crop protection to effectively manage and mitigate the effects of frost damage. The main goal of this study was to evaluate the meso-local-scale weather forecasts from the state-of-the-art ... Keywords: Frost protection, Georgia Automated Environmental Monitoring Network, Temperature prediction, Weather Research and Forecasting model
Thara Prabha; Gerrit Hoogenboom
to the latest meteorological observations, climatological information, and weather forecast products for the Los Alamos area. December 14, 2011 Snow vortex A snow vortex in Los...
Products and Service of Center for Weather Forecast and Climate Studies
LOG O Products and Service of Center for Weather Forecast and Climate Studies Simone Sievert da (INPE) #12;Talk Outline CPTEC/INPE Operational Forecast Systems (time scales) Modeling Forecast-Brazil Space Sector Workshop, São José dos Campos 26 - 27 August. 2010 CPTEC: Forecasting Modeling Scales Time
Development of Skill by Students Enrolled in a Weather Forecasting Laboratory
Daily values of forecast scores are evaluated for students in a weather analysis and forecasting class (ATMS 452) offered by the Department of Atmospheric Sciences of the University of Washington during the spring terms of 1997�2007. The ...
Nicholas A. Bond; Clifford F. Mass
Winter Weather Forecasting throughout the Eastern United States. Part IV: Lake Effect Snow
This article is the final installment of a four-part series that examines the challenge of forecasting winter weather throughout the eastern United States. This paper examines the problems and challenges of forecasting lake effect snows. The ...
Thomas A. Niziol; Warren R. Snyder; Jeff S. Waldstreicher
The Thunderstorm Interactive Forecast System: Turning Automated Thunderstorm Tracks into Severe Weather Warnings
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology has developed a new tool called the Thunderstorm Interactive Forecast System (TIFS; formerly known as ThunderBox) for interactively producing finished severe weather warnings and other forecasts from ...
John Bally
Evaluation of WRF Model Output for Severe Weather Forecasting from the 2008 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Experiment
This study assesses forecasts of the preconvective and near-storm environments from the convection-allowing models run for the 2008 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) spring experiment. ...
Michael C. Coniglio; Kimberly L. Elmore; John S. Kain; Steven J. Weiss; Ming Xue; Morris L. Weisman
Learning uncertainty models from weather forecast performance databases using quantile regression
Forecast uncertainty information is not available in the immediate output of Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Such important information is required for optimal decision making processes in many domains. Prediction intervals are a prominent ... Keywords: numerical weather forecast, prediction interval, quantile regression, uncertainty modeling
Ashkan Zarnani; Petr Musilek
On-line economic optimization of energy systems using weather forecast information.
We establish an on-line optimization framework to exploit weather forecast information in the operation of energy systems. We argue that anticipating the weather conditions can lead to more proactive and cost-effective operations. The framework is based on the solution of a stochastic dynamic real-time optimization (D-RTO) problem incorporating forecasts generated from a state-of-the-art weather prediction model. The necessary uncertainty information is extracted from the weather model using an ensemble approach. The accuracy of the forecast trends and uncertainty bounds are validated using real meteorological data. We present a numerical simulation study in a building system to demonstrate the developments.
The Emergence of Weather-Related Test Beds Linking Research and Forecasting Operations
Test beds have emerged as a critical mechanism linking weather research with forecasting operations. The U.S. Weather Research Program (USWRP) was formed in the 1990s to help identify key gaps in research related to major weather prediction problems and ...
F. Martin Ralph; Janet Intrieri; David Andra Jr.; Robert Atlas; Sid Boukabara; David Bright; Paula Davidson; Bruce Entwistle; John Gaynor; Steve Goodman; Jiann-Gwo Jiing; Amy Harless; Jin Huang; Gary Jedlovec; John Kain; Steven Koch; Bill Kuo; Jason Levit; Shirley Murillo; Lars Peter Riishojgaard; Timothy Schneider; Russell Schneider; Travis Smith; Steven Weiss
The Emergence of Weather-Related Testbeds Linking Research and Forecasting Operations
Testbeds have emerged as a critical mechanism linking weather research with forecasting operations. The U.S. Weather Research Program (USWRP) was formed in the 1990s to help identify key gaps in research related to major weather prediction problems and ...
F. Martin Ralph; Janet Intrieri; David Andra; Jr.; Robert Atlas; Sid Boukabara; David Bright; Paula Davidson; Bruce Entwistle; John Gaynor; Steve Goodman; Jiann-Gwo Jiing; Amy Harless; Jin Huang; Gary Jedlovec; John Kain; Steven Koch; Bill Kuo; Jason Levit; Shirley Murillo; Lars Peter Riishojgaard; Timothy Schneider; Russell Schneider; Travis Smith; Steven Weiss
The Economic Value Of Ensemble-Based Weather Forecasts
The potential economic benefit associated with the use of an ensemble of forecasts versus anequivalent or higher-resolution control forecast is discussed. Neither forecast systems are post-processed,except a simple calibration that is applied to ...
Yuejian Zhu; Zoltan Toth; Richard Wobus; David Richardson; Kenneth Mylne
Evaluating a Hybrid Prognostic�Diagnostic Model That Improves Wind Forecast Resolution in Complex Coastal Topography
The results from a hybrid approach that combines the forecasts of a mesoscale model with a diagnostic wind model to produce high-resolution wind forecasts in complex coastal orography are evaluated. The simple diagnostic wind model [Winds on ...
Francis L. Ludwig; Douglas K. Miller; Shawn G. Gallaher
Predicting Cloud-to-Ground and Intracloud Lightning in Weather Forecast Models
A new prognostic, spatially and temporally dependent variable is introduced to the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF). This variable is called the potential electrical energy (Ep). It was used to predict the dynamic contribution of the ...
Barry H. Lynn; Yoav Yair; Colin Price; Guy Kelman; Adam J. Clark
The Value of Wind Profiler Data in U.S. Weather Forecasting
An assessment of the value of data from the NOAA Profiler Network (NPN) on weather forecasting is presented. A series of experiments was conducted using the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) model/assimilation system in which various data sources were ...
Stanley G. Benjamin; Barry E. Schwartz; Steven E. Koch; Edward J. Szoke
The Sydney 2000 World Weather Research Programme Forecast Demonstration Project: Overview and Current Status
The first World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) Forecast Demonstration Project (FDP), with a focus on nowcasting, was conducted in Sydney, Australia, from 4 September to 21 November 2000 during a period associated with the Sydney 2000 Olympic ...
T. Keenan; P. Joe; J. Wilson; C. Collier; B. Golding; D. Burgess; P. May; C. Pierce; J. Bally; A. Crook; A. Seed; D. Sills; L. Berry; R. Potts; I. Bell; N. Fox; E. Ebert; M. Eilts; K. O'Loughlin; R. Webb; R. Carbone; K. Browning; R. Roberts; C. Mueller
Exploring Variations in People�s Sources, Uses, and Perceptions of Weather Forecasts
Past research has shown that individuals vary in their attitudes and behaviors regarding weather forecast information. To deepen knowledge about these variations, this article explores 1) patterns in people�s sources, uses, and perceptions of ...
Julie L. Demuth; Jeffrey K. Lazo; Rebecca E. Morss
Probabilistic Forecasts of (Severe) Thunderstorms for the Purpose of Issuing a Weather Alarm in the Netherlands
The development and verification of a new model output statistics (MOS) system is described; this system is intended to help forecasters decide whether a weather alarm for severe thunderstorms, based on high total lightning intensity, should be ...
Maurice J. Schmeits; Kees J. Kok; Daan H. P. Vogelezang; Rudolf M. van Westrhenen
Development of the Upgraded Tangent Linear and Adjoint of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model
The authors propose a new technique for parallelizations of tangent linear and adjoint codes, which were applied in the redevelopment for the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with its Advanced Research WRF dynamic core using the ...
Xin Zhang; Xiang-Yu Huang; Ning Pan
Impacts of Soil Heating Condition on Precipitation Simulations in the Weather Research and Forecasting Model
Soil temperature is a major variable in land surface models, representing soil energy status, storage, and transfer. It serves as an important factor indicating the underlying surface heating condition for weather and climate forecasts. This ...
Xingang Fan
An Immersed Boundary Method for the Weather Research and Forecasting Model
This paper describes an immersed boundary method that facilitates the explicit resolution of complex terrain within the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Mesoscale models, such as WRF, are increasingly used for high-resolution ...
Katherine A. Lundquist; Fotini Katopodes Chow; Julie K. Lundquist
A Strategy for Verification of Weather Element Forecasts from an Ensemble Prediction System
Using a Bayesian context, new measures of accuracy and skill are proposed to verify weather element forecasts from ensemble prediction systems (EPSs) with respect to individual observations. The new scores are in the form of probabilities of ...
Laurence J. Wilson; William R. Burrows; Andreas Lanzinger
A Weather and Climate Enterprise Strategic Implementation Plan for Generating and Communicating Forecast Uncertainty Information
The American Meteorological Society (AMS) Weather and Climate Enterprise Strategic Implementation Plan for Generating and Communicating Forecast Uncertainty (the Plan) is summarized. The Plan (available on the AMS website at www.ametsoc.org/boardpges/cwce/...
Paul A. Hirschberg; Elliot Abrams; Andrea Bleistein; William Bua; Luca Delle Monache; Thomas W. Dulong; John E. Gaynor; Bob Glahn; Thomas M. Hamill; James A. Hansen; Douglas C. Hilderbrand; Ross N. Hoffman; Betty Hearn Morrow; Brenda Philips; John Sokich; Neil Stuart
Toward a Combined Seasonal Weather and Crop Productivity Forecasting System: Determination of the Working Spatial Scale
A methodology is presented for the development of a combined seasonal weather and crop productivity forecasting system. The first stage of the methodology is the determination of the spatial scale(s) on which the system could operate; this ...
A. J. Challinor; J. M. Slingo; T. R. Wheeler; P. Q. Craufurd; D. I. F. Grimes
An Overview of the 2010 Hazardous Weather Testbed Experimental Forecast Program Spring Experiment
The NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) conducts annual spring forecasting experiments organized by the Storm Prediction Center and National Severe Storms Laboratory to test and evaluate emerging scientific concepts and technologies for improved analysis ...
Adam J. Clark; Steven J. Weiss; John S. Kain; Israel L. Jirak; Michael Coniglio; Christopher J. Melick; Christopher Siewert; Ryan A. Sobash; Patrick T. Marsh; Andrew R. Dean; Ming Xue; Fanyou Kong; Kevin W. Thomas; Yunheng Wang; Keith Brewster; Jidong Gao; Xuguang Wang; Jun Du; David R. Novak; Faye E. Barthold; Michael J. Bodner; Jason J. Levit; C. Bruce Entwistle; Tara L. Jensen; James Correia Jr.
Winter Weather Forecasting throughout the Eastern United States. Part I: An Overview
The complex combination of synoptic- and mesoscale interactions topographic influences, and large population densities poses a multitude of challenging problems to winter weather forecasters throughout the eastern United States. Over the years, ...
George J. Maglaras; Jeff S. Waldstreicher; Paul J. Kocin; Anthony F. Gigi; Robert A. Marine
High-Resolution Weather Forecasting over Complex Orography: Sensitivity to the Assimilation of Conventional Data
Weather forecasting for regions with complex orography, as the Alps, presents several challenges and the task becomes even more difficult when high resolution is required. Moreover, for the Alpine region, some of the problems are due to the lack ...
Claudia Faccani; Rossella Ferretti; Guido Visconti
Assessment of the Aviation Weather Center Global Forecasts of Mesoscale Convective Systems*
This paper examines the precision of location and top height of mesoscale convective systems, as forecast by the Aviation Weather Center (AWC). The examination was motivated by the Mediterranean Israeli Dust Experiment (MEIDEX) on the space ...
Baruch Ziv; Yoav Yair; Karin Presman; Martin F�llekrug
Numerical Prediction of an Antarctic Severe Wind Event with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model
This study initiates the application of the maturing Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to the polar regions in the context of the real-time Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS). The behavior of the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) ...
Jordan G. Powers
Weather Swap Pricing and the Optimal Size for Medium-Range Forecast Ensembles
Weather swap pricing involves predicting the mean temperature for the current month with the highest possible accuracy. The more days of skillful forecasts that are available, the better the monthly mean can be predicted. The ensemble mean of a ...
Stephen Jewson; Christine Ziehmann
Hydrometeorological Accuracy Enhancement via Postprocessing of Numerical Weather Forecasts in Complex Terrain
Statistical postprocessing techniques such as model output statistics are used by national weather centers to improve the skill of numerical forecasts. However, many of these techniques require an extensive database to develop, maintain, and ...
Doug McCollor; Roland Stull
Use of Medium-Range Numerical Weather Prediction Model Output to Produce Forecasts of Streamflow
This paper examines an archive containing over 40 years of 8-day atmospheric forecasts over the contiguous United States from the NCEP reanalysis project to assess the possibilities for using medium-range numerical weather prediction model output ...
Martyn P. Clark; Lauren E. Hay
Winter Weather Forecasting throughout the Eastern United States. Part II: An Operational Perspective of Cyclogenesis
The complex combination of synoptic and mesoscale interactions, topographic influences, and large population densities poses a multitude of challenging problems to winter weather forecasters throughout the eastern United States. Over the years, ...
James J. Gurka; Eugene P. Auciello; Anthony F. Gigi; Jeff S. Waldstreicher; Kermit K. Keeter; Steven Businger; Laurence G. Lee
PNNL-Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)-Chem Modeling in Mexico | Open
Open Energy Info (EERE)
Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)-Chem Modeling in Mexico Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)-Chem Modeling in Mexico Jump to: navigation, search Name PNNL-Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)-Chem Modeling in Mexico Agency/Company /Organization Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Sector Energy Topics Co-benefits assessment, - Environmental and Biodiversity, - Health, Background analysis Resource Type Publications Website http://www.pnl.gov/atmospheric Country Mexico UN Region Latin America and the Caribbean References PNNL-Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)-Chem Modeling in Mexico[1] PNNL Publications on WRF-Chem modeling in Mexico include: Fast JD, M Shrivastava, RA Zaveri, and JC. Barnard. 2010. "Modeling particulates and direct radiative forcing from urban to synoptic scales downwind of Mexico City." Annual European Geosciences Union Assembly,
Value of medium range weather forecasts in the improvement of seasonal hydrologic prediction skill
We investigated the contribution of medium range weather forecasts with lead times up to 14 days to seasonal hydrologic prediction skill over the Conterminous United States (CONUS). Three different Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP)-based experiments were performed for the period 1980-2003 using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model to generate forecasts of monthly runoff and soil moisture (SM) at lead-1 (first month of the forecast period) to lead-3. The first experiment (ESP) used a resampling from the retrospective period 1980-2003 and represented full climatological uncertainty for the entire forecast period. In the second and third experiments, the first 14 days of each ESP ensemble member were replaced by either observations (perfect 14-day forecast) or by a deterministic 14-day weather forecast. We used Spearman rank correlations of forecasts and observations as the forecast skill score. We estimated the potential and actual improvement in baseline skill as the difference between the skill of experiments 2 and 3 relative to ESP, respectively. We found that useful runoff and SM forecast skill at lead-1 to -3 months can be obtained by exploiting medium range weather forecast skill in conjunction with the skill derived by the knowledge of initial hydrologic conditions. Potential improvement in baseline skill by using medium range weather forecasts, for runoff (SM) forecasts generally varies from 0 to 0.8 (0 to 0.5) as measured by differences in correlations, with actual improvement generally from 0 to 0.8 of the potential improvement. With some exceptions, most of the improvement in runoff is for lead-1 forecasts, although some improvement in SM was achieved at lead-2.
Shukla, Shraddhanand; Voisin, Nathalie; Lettenmaier, D. P.
Short-Term Ice Accretion Forecasts for Electric Utilities Using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model and a Modified Precipitation-Type Algorithm
The Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) is used to provide 6�12-h forecasts of the necessary input parameters to a separate algorithm that determines the most likely precipitation type at each model grid point. In instances where ...
Arthur T. DeGaetano; Brian N. Belcher; Pamela L. Spier
Comparative Evaluation of Weather Forecasting Systems: Sufficiency, Quality, and Accuracy
The concept of sufficiency, originally introduced in the context of the comparison of statistical experiments, has recently been shown to provide a coherent basis for comparative evaluation of forecasting systems. Specifically, forecasting system ...
Martin Ehrendorfer; Allan H. Murphy
Value of Probabilistic Weather Forecasts: Assessment by Real-Time Optimization of Irrigation Scheduling
This paper presents a modeling framework for real-time decision support for irrigation scheduling using the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA's) probabilistic rainfall forecasts. The forecasts and their probability distributions are incorporated into a simulation-optimization modeling framework. In this study, modeling irrigation is determined by a stochastic optimization program based on the simulated soil moisture and crop water-stress status and the forecasted rainfall for the next 1-7 days. The modeling framework is applied to irrigated corn in Mason County, Illinois. It is found that there is ample potential to improve current farmers practices by simply using the proposed simulation-optimization framework, which uses the present soil moisture and crop evapotranspiration information even without any forecasts. It is found that the values of the forecasts vary across dry, normal, and wet years. More significant economic gains are found in normal and wet years than in dry years under the various forecast horizons. To mitigate drought effect on crop yield through irrigation, medium- or long-term climate predictions likely play a more important role than short-term forecasts. NOAA's imperfect 1-week forecast is still valuable in terms of both profit gain and water saving. Compared with the no-rain forecast case, the short-term imperfect forecasts could lead to additional 2.4-8.5% gain in profit and 11.0-26.9% water saving. However, the performance of the imperfect forecast is only slightly better than the ensemble weather forecast based on historical data and slightly inferior to the perfect forecast. It seems that the 1-week forecast horizon is too limited to evaluate the role of the various forecast scenarios for irrigation scheduling, which is actually a seasonal decision issue. For irrigation scheduling, both the forecast quality and the length of forecast time horizon matter. Thus, longer forecasts might be necessary to evaluate the role of forecasts for irrigation scheduling in a more effective way.
Cai, Ximing; Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Wang, Dingbao
Weather Impacts, Forecasts, and Policy: An Integrated Perspective
Society invests considerable resources into the science and technology of weather services. In order to effectively assess the market for weather services, and thus properly scale the level of resources that, for example, the U.S. Congress or a ...
Roger Pielke Jr.; R. E. Carbone
Mesoscale Modeling for Mountain Weather Forecasting Over the Himalayas
Severe weather has a more calamitous effect in the mountainous region-because the terrain is complex and the economy is poorly developed and fragile. Such weather systems occurring on a small spatiotemporal scale invite application of models with ...
Someshwar Das; S. V. Singh; E. N. Rajagopal; Robert Gall
California hydro forecast declines on dry weather - Today ...
U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
Includes hydropower, solar, wind, geothermal, biomass and ethanol. Nuclear & Uranium. ... Updated March 5, 2013, to reflect weather developments.
The Stratospheric Extension of the Canadian Global Deterministic Medium-Range Weather Forecasting System and Its Impact on Tropospheric Forecasts
A new system that resolves the stratosphere was implemented for operational medium-range weather forecasts at the Canadian Meteorological Centre. The model lid was raised from 10 to 0.1 hPa, parameterization schemes for nonorographic gravity wave ...
Martin Charron; Saroja Polavarapu; Mark Buehner; P. A. Vaillancourt; C�cilien Charette; Michel Roch; Jos�e Morneau; Louis Garand; Josep M. Aparicio; Stephen MacPherson; Simon Pellerin; Judy St-James; Sylvain Heilliette
The Impact of Advanced Nowcasting Systems on Severe Weather Warning during the Sydney 2000 Forecast Demonstration Project: 3 November 2000
One of the principal aims of the Sydney 2000 Forecast Demonstration Project was to assess the utility of advanced nowcasting systems to operational severe weather forecasters. This paper describes the application of the products of a variety of ...
Neil I. Fox; Rob Webb; John Bally; Michael W. Sleigh; Clive E. Pierce; David M. L. Sills; Paul I. Joe; James Wilson; Chris G. Collier
The Weather Information and Skill Experiment (WISE): The Effect of Varying Levels of Information on Forecast Skill
The relationship between the quality and quantity of information available to meteorologists and the skill of their forecasts was investigated. Twelve meteorologists were asked to make probabilistic forecasts of significant and severe weather ...
Kenneth F. Heideman; Thomas R. Stewart; William R. Moninger; Patricia Reagan-Cirincione
Forecasting the Skill of a Regional Numerical Weather Prediction Model
It is demonstrated that the skill of short-term regional numerical forecasts can be predicted on a day-to-day basis. This was achieved by using a statistical regression scheme with the model forecast errors (MFE) as the predictands and the ...
L. M. Leslie; K. Fraedrich; T. J. Glowacki
California hydro forecast declines on dry weather - Today in ...
California hydroelectric generators are found along different river basins, and the weather patterns can be significantly different between the two regions, ...
Data Assimilation in Weather Forecasting: A Case Study in PDE ...
Variational data assimilation is used at major weather prediction centers to ..... the model of some physical processes such as convection, solar radiation, and.
Odds Ratio Forecasts Increase Precautionary Action for Extreme Weather Events
What is the best way to communicate the risk of rare but extreme weather to the public? One suggestion is to communicate the relative risk of extreme weather in the form of odds ratios; but, to the authors� knowledge, this suggestion has never ...
Jared LeClerc; Susan Joslyn
Forecasting the space weather impact: The COMESEP project
The FP7 COronal Mass Ejections and Solar Energetic Particles (COMESEP) project is developing tools for forecasting geomagnetic storms and solar energetic particle (SEP) radiation storms. By analysis of historical data
N. B. Crosby; A. Veronig; E. Robbrecht; B. Vrsnak; S. Vennerstrom; O. Malandraki; S. Dalla; L. Rodriguez; N. Srivastava; M. Hesse; D. Odstrcil; COMESEP Consortium
Application of Transilient Turbulence Theory to Mesoscale Numerical Weather Forecasting
In this study we show that a unified turbulence parameterization, when divorced from the smoothing procedures needed for numerical stability of the host model, can be implemented in a numerical weather prediction model. Our host model is the 15-...
William H. Raymond; Roland B. Stull
Energy estimator for weather forecasts dynamic power management of wireless sensor networks
Emerging Wireless Sensor Networks (WSN) consist of spatially distributed autonomous sensors. Although an embedded battery has limited autonomy, most WSNs outperform this drawback by harvesting ambient energy from the environment. Nevertheless, this external ... Keywords: design tools, dynamic power management, weather forecasts, wireless sensor networks
Nicolas Ferry; Sylvain Ducloyer; Nathalie Julien; Dominique Jutel
Study of Machine Round-Off response on Weather Forecasting Simulations Using High Performance Computing Systems
The weather forecasting model T80L18 is found to be sensitive to variations in the computing platform. The global spectral model simulation variation due to machine round off is examined using rounding mode analysis and the perturbation methods. The ...
S. Janakiraman; J. V. Ratnam; Akshara Kaginalkar
A Weather Forecasting System using concept of Soft Computing: a new approach
Weather forecasting and warnings are the major services provided by the meteorological profession. Many government and private agencies are working on its behavior but still it is challenging and incomplete. We propose a new technique to construct the learning set of images
A. Sharma; U. Datta
Downscaling of ECMWF Ensemble Forecasts for Cases of Severe Weather: Ensemble Statistics and Cluster Analysis
Dynamical downscaling has been applied to global ensemble forecasts to assess its impact for four cases of severe weather (precipitation and wind) over various parts of Croatia. It was performed with the Croatian 12.2-km version of the Aire ...
?edo Brankovi?; Bla�enka Matja?i?; Stjepan Ivatek-�ahdan; Roberto Buizza
Performance of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model for Month-Long Pan-Arctic Simulations
The performance of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was evaluated for month-long simulations over a large pan-Arctic model domain. The evaluation of seven different WRF (version 3.1) configurations for four months (January, April, ...
John J. Cassano; Matthew E. Higgins; Mark W. Seefeldt
RACORO Forecasting
Weather Briefings Observed Weather Cloud forecasting models BUFKIT forecast soundings + guidance from Norman NWS enhanced pages and discussions NAM-WRF updated...
Application of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model for Air Quality Modeling in the San Francisco Bay Area
The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is evaluated by conducting various sensitivity experiments over central California (CA) including the San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA), with the goal of establishing a WRF model configuration to be ...
Raphael E. Rogers; Aijun Deng; David R. Stauffer; Brian J. Gaudet; Yiqin Jia; Su-Tzai Soong; Saffet Tanrikulu
The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is evaluated by conducting various sensitivity experiments over central California including the San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA), with the goal of establishing a WRF model configuration to be used by ...
Operational Implementation of the ISBA Land Surface Scheme in the Canadian Regional Weather Forecast Model. Part I: Warm Season Results
The summertime improvement resulting from the operational implementation of a new surface modeling and assimilation strategy into the Canadian regional weather forecasting system is described in this study. The surface processes over land are ...
St�phane B�lair; Louis-Philippe Crevier; Jocelyn Mailhot; Bernard Bilodeau; Yves Delage
Ensemble-Based Exigent Analysis. Part I: Estimating Worst-Case Weather-Related Forecast Damage Scenarios
Exigent analysis supplements an ensemble forecast of weather-related damage with a map of the worst-case scenario (WCS), a multivariate confidence bound of the damage. For multivariate Gaussian ensembles, ensemble-based exigent analysis uses a ...
Daniel Gombos; Ross N. Hoffman
Resolved turbulence characteristics in large-eddy simulations nested within mesoscale simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting model
One-way concurrent nesting within the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is examined for conducting large-eddy simulations (LES) nested within mesoscale simulations. Wind speed, spectra, and resolved turbulent stresses and turbulence ...
Jeff Mirocha; Branko Kosovi?; Gokhan Kirkil
Analysis of Idealized Tropical Cyclone Simulations Using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model: Sensitivity to Turbulence Parameterization and Grid Spacing
The Weather Research and Forecasting Advanced Research Model (WRF-ARW) was used to perform idealized tropical cyclone (TC) simulations, with domains of 36-, 12-, and 4-km horizontal grid spacing. Tests were conducted to determine the sensitivity ...
Kevin A. Hill; Gary M. Lackmann
Evaluating Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model Predictions of Turbulent Flow Parameters in a Dry Convective Boundary Layer
Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model predictions using different boundary layer schemes and horizontal grid spacings were compared with observational and numerical large-eddy simulation data for conditions corresponding to a dry ...
Jeremy A. Gibbs; Evgeni Fedorovich; Alexander M. J. van Eijk
Development and Evaluation of a Coupled Photosynthesis-Based Gas Exchange Evapotranspiration Model (GEM) for Mesoscale Weather Forecasting Applications
Current land surface schemes used for mesoscale weather forecast models use the Jarvis-type stomatal resistance formulations for representing the vegetation transpiration processes. The Jarvis scheme, however, despite its robustness, needs ...
Dev Niyogi; Kiran Alapaty; Sethu Raman; Fei Chen
Diagnostic and Forecast Graphics Products at NMC Using High Frequency Model Output
Archived hourly output from the National Meteorological Center (NMC) prediction models has provided the basis for advanced graphic diagnostic and forecast tools. The high-frequency data are available on a regional selected station network. Each ...
David W. Plummer
The role of ICTs in downscaling and up-scaling integrated weather forecasts for farmers in sub-Saharan Africa
Despite global advancements in technology and inter-trade volumes, Sub-Saharan Africa is the only Region where cases of hunger have increased since 1990. Rampant and frequent droughts are one of the major causes of this. Monumental and mostly donor-funded ... Keywords: Nganyi clan of western Kenya, indigenous knowledge weather forecasts, seasonal climate forecasts, sub-Saharan Africa, wireless sensor networks
Muthoni Masinde; Antoine Bagula; Nzioka J. Muthama
Application of Forecast Verification Science to Operational River Forecasting in the U.S. National Weather Service
Forecast verification in operational hydrology has been very limited to date, mainly due to the complexity of verifying both forcing input forecasts and hydrologic forecasts on multiple space�time scales. However, forecast verification needs to ...
Julie Demargne; Mary Mullusky; Kevin Werner; Thomas Adams; Scott Lindsey; Noreen Schwein; William Marosi; Edwin Welles
Great Historical Events That Were Significantly Affected by the Weather: Part 8, Germany's War on the Soviet Union, 1941-45. II. Some Important Weather Forecasts, 1942-45
Short- to medium-range weather forecasts were prepared by Soviet meteorologists for the Battle of Stalingrad. These included forecasts for days suitable for massing troops and equipment and for starting the Soviet offensive in November 1942 that ...
J. Neumann; H. Flohn
Weather Forecasts by the WRF-ARW Model with the GSI Data Assimilation System in the Complex Terrain Areas of Southwest Asia
This paper will first describe the forecasting errors encountered from running the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) mesoscale model (the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting model; ARW) in the complex terrain of ...
J. Xu; S. Rugg; L. Byerle; Z. Liu
Potential of 4d-VAR for exigent forecasting of severe weather
Severe storms, tropical cyclones, and associated tornadoes, floods, lightning, and microbursts threaten life and property. Reliable, precise, and accurate alerts of these phenomena can trigger defensive actions and preparations. However, these crucial weather phenomena are difficult to forecast. The objective of this paper is to demonstrate the potential of 4d-VAR (four dimensional variational data assimilation) for exigent forecasting (XF) of severe storm precursors and to thereby characterize the probability of a worst-case scenario. 4d-VAR is designed to adjust the initial conditions (IC) of a numerical weather prediction model consistent with the uncertainty of the prior estimate of the IC while at the same time minimizing the misfit to available observations. For XF the same approach is taken but instead of fitting observations, a measure of damage or loss or an equivalent proxy is maximized or minimized. To accomplish this will require development of a specialized cost function for 4d-VAR. When 4d-VAR s...
Hoffman, Ross N; Nehrkorn, Thomas
Weather Research and Forecasting Model's Community Variational/Ensemble Data Assimilation System: WRFDA
Data assimilation is the process by which observations are combined with short-range NWP model output to produce an analysis of the state of the atmosphere at a specified time. Since its inception in the late 1990s, the multiagency Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model effort has had a strong data assimilation component, dedicating two working groups to the subject. This article documents the history of the WRF data assimilation effort, and discusses the challenges associated with balancing academic, research, and operational data assimilation requirements in the context of the WRF effort to date. The WRF Model's Community Variational/Ensemble Data Assimilation System (WRFDA) has evolved over the past 10 years, and has resulted in over 30 refereed publications to date, as well as implementation in a wide range of real-time and operational NWP systems.
Barker, D.; Huang, X. Y.; Liu, Z. Q.; Auligne, T.; Zhang, X.; Rugg, S.; Ajjaji, R.; Bourgeois, A.; Bray, J.; Chen, Y. S.; Demirtas, M.; Guo, Y. R.; Henderson, T.; Huang, W.; Lin, H. C.; Michalakes, J.; Rizvi, S.; Zhang, X. Y.
Linear Diagnostics to Assess the Performance of an Ensemble Forecast System
The performance of an ensemble prediction system is inherently flow dependent. This dissertation investigates the flow dependence of the ensemble performance with the help of linear diagnostics applied to the ensemble perturbations in a small local neighborhood of each model grid point location ?. A local error covariance matrix P? is defined for each local region and the diagnostics are applied to the linear space S? defined by the range of the ensemble based estimate of P?. The particular diagnostics are chosen to help investigate the ability of S? to efficiently capture the space of true forecast or analysis uncertainties, accurately predict the magnitude of forecast or analysis uncertainties, and to distinguish between the importance of different state space directions. Additionally, we aim to better understand the roots of the underestimation of the magnitude of uncertainty by the ensemble at longer forecast lead times. Numerical experiments are carried out with an implementation of the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF) data assimilation system on a reduced (T62L28) resolution version of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS). Both simulated observations under the perfect model scenario and observations of the real atmosphere are used in these experiments. It is found that (i) paradoxically, the linear space S? provides an increasingly better estimate of the space of forecast uncertainties as the time evolution of the ensemble perturbations becomes more nonlinear with increasing forecast time, (ii) S? provides a more reliable linear representation of the space of forecast uncertainties for cases of more rapid error growth, (iii) the E-dimension is a reliable predictor of the performance of S? in predicting the space of forecast uncertainties, (iv) the ensemble grossly underestimates the forecast error variance in S?, (v) when realistic observation coverage is used, the ensemble typically overestimates the uncertainty in the leading eigen-directions of �P ? and underestimates the uncertainty in the trailing directions at analysis time and underestimates the uncertainty in all directions by the 120-hr forecast lead time, and (vi) at analysis time, with a constant covariance inflation factor, the ensemble typically underestimates uncertainty in densely observed regions and overestimates the uncertainty in sparsely observed regions.
Satterfield, Elizabeth A.
Forecast Issues in the Urban Zone: Report of the 10th Prospectus Development Team of the U.S. Weather Research Program
The 10th Prospectus Development Team (PDT�10) of the U.S. Weather Research Program was charged with identifying research needs and opportunities related to the short�term prediction of weather and air quality in urban forecast zones. Weather has ...
Walter F. Dabberdt; Andrew Crook; Cynthia Mueller; Jeremy Hales; Steven Zubrick; Witold Krajewski; J. Christopher Doran; Clark King; Ronald N. Keener; Robert Bornstein; David Rodenhuis; Paul Kocin; Michael A. Rossetti; Fred Sharrocks; Ellis M. Stanley Sr.
Solar forecasting review
of Solar Forecasting . . . . . . . . . 2.4.1 Solarbudget at the foundation of satellite based forecastingWeather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model 7.1 Global
Inman, Richard Headen
Societal and Economic Research and Applications For Weather Forecasts: Priorities for the North American THORPEX Program
Despite the meteorological community's long-term interest in weather�society interactions, efforts to understand socioeconomic aspects of weather prediction and to incorporate this knowledge into the weather prediction system have yet to reach ...
Rebecca E. Morss; Jeffrey K. Lazo; Barbara G. Brown; Harold E. Brooks; Philip T. Ganderton; Brian N. Mills
The power of weather
Weather information demonstrates predictive power in forecasting electricity prices in day-ahead markets in real time. In particular, next-day weather forecasts improve the forecast accuracy of Scandinavian day-ahead electricity prices in terms of point ... Keywords: Electricity prices, GARCH models, Point and density forecasts, Weather forecasts
Christian Huurman; Francesco Ravazzolo; Chen Zhou
Inclusion of biomass burning in WRF-Chem: Impact of wildfires on weather forecasts
A plume rise algorithm for wildfires was included in WRF-Chem, and applied to look at the impact of intense wildfires during the 2004 Alaska wildfire season on weather forecasts using model resolutions of 10km and 2km. Biomass burning emissions were estimated using a biomass burning emissions model. In addition, a 1-D, time-dependent cloud model was used online in WRF-Chem to estimate injection heights as well as the final emission rates. It was shown that with the inclusion of the intense wildfires of the 2004 fire season in the model simulations, the interaction of the aerosols with the atmospheric radiation led to significant modifications of vertical profiles of temperature and moisture in cloud-free areas. On the other hand, when clouds were present, the high concentrations of fine aerosol (PM2.5) and the resulting large numbers of Cloud Condensation Nuclei (CCN) had a strong impact on clouds and microphysics, with decreased precipitation coverage and precipitation amounts during the first 12 hours of the integration, but significantly stronger storms during the afternoon hours.
Grell, G. A.; Freitas, Saulo; Stuefer, Martin; Fast, Jerome D.
The Challenge of Forecasting Heavy Rain and Flooding throughout the Eastern Region of the National Weather Service. Part I: Characteristics and Events
Heavy rain and flooding are of particular concern to forecasters throughout the eastern and southeastern United States. In this paper, the unique combination of synoptic-scale and mesoscale weather conditions and topographic factors that ...
Kenneth D. Lapenta; Barbara J. McNaught; Steven J. Capriola; Louis A. Giordano; Charles D. Little; Stephen D. Hrebenach; Gary M. Carter; Mario D. Valverde; Derek S. Frey
A Comparative Verification of Localized Aviation Model Output Statistics Program (LAMP) and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) Model Forecasts of Ceiling Height and Visibility
In an effort to support aviation forecasting, the National Weather Service�s Meteorological Development Laboratory (MDL) has recently redeveloped the Localized Aviation Model Output Statistics (MOS) Program (LAMP) system. LAMP is designed to run ...
David E. Rudack; Judy E. Ghirardelli
Transition and Equilibration of Neutral Atmospheric Boundary Layer Flow in One-Way Nested Large-Eddy Simulations Using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model
The Weather Research and Forecasting Model permits finescale large-eddy simulations (LES) to be nested within coarser simulations, an approach that can generate more accurate turbulence statistics and improve other aspects of simulated flows. ...
Jeff Mirocha; Gokhan Kirkil; Elie Bou-Zeid; Fotini Katopodes Chow; Branko Kosovi?
An Evaluation and Intercomparison of Global Analyses from the National Meteorological Center and the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts
In order to help establish a global climate record data sets of global analyses from the U.S. National Meteorological Center (NMC) and the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) have been comprehensively evaluated.
Kevin E. Trenberth; Jerry G. Olson
A Comparison of Divergent Winds from the National Meteorological Center and the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts Global Analyses for 1980�1986
A comparison is made of the divergent wind analyses of the National Meteorological Center (NMC) and those of the ECMWF/WMO dataset produced by the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Using a reliability criterion based on ...
Steven J. Lambert
The Societal, Social, and Economic Impacts of the World Weather Research Programme Sydney 2000 Forecast Demonstration Project (WWRP S2000 FDP)
The Sydney 2000 (S2000) Forecast Demonstration Project (FDP) was initiated by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) to enable the world meteorological community to cooperatively demonstrate advanced ...
Linda Anderson-Berry; Tom Keenan; John Bally; Roger Pielke Jr.; Roy Leigh; David King
Development of a Limited-Area Model for Operational Weather Forecasting around a Power Plant: The Need for Specialized Forecasts
A hydrostatic meteorological model, �PMETEO,� was developed for short-range forecasts for a high-resolution limited area located in the northwest region of Spain. Initial and lateral boundary conditions are externally provided by a coarse-mesh ...
C. F. Balseiro; M. J. Souto; E. Penabad; J. A. Souto; V. P�rez-Mu�uzuri
From Predicting Solar Activity to Forecasting Space Weather: Practical Examples of Research-to-Operations and Operations-to-Research
The successful transition of research to operations (R2O) and operations to research (O2R) requires, above all, interaction between the two communities. We explore the role that close interaction and ongoing communication played in the successful fielding of three separate developments: an observation platform, a numerical model, and a visualization and specification tool. Additionally, we will examine how these three pieces came together to revolutionize interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) arrival forecasts. A discussion of the importance of education and training in ensuring a positive outcome from R2O activity follows. We describe efforts by the meteorological community to make research results more accessible to forecasters and the applicability of these efforts to the transfer of space-weather research.We end with a forecaster "wish list" for R2O transitions. Ongoing, two-way communication between the research and operations communities is the thread connecting it all.
Steenburgh, R A; Millward, G H
Great Historical Events That Were Significantly Affected by the Weather: Part 8, Germany's War on the Soviet Union, 1941�45. I. Long-range Weather Forecasts for 1941�42 and Climatological Studies
A brief account is given of Baur's long-range weather forecast prepared in the autumn of 1941 for the 1941�42 winter in Eastern Europe. Baur's forecast called for a �normal� or mild winter but the winter turned out to be one of the most severe ...
Shootout-89, A Comparative Evaluation of Knowledge-based Systems That Forecast Severe Weather
During the summer of 1989, the Forecast Systems Laboratory of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration sponsored an evaluation of artificial-intelligence-based systems that forecast severe convective storms. The evaluation experiment, ...
W. R. Moninger; C. Lusk; W. F. Roberts; J. Bullas; Bde Lorenzis; J. C. McLeod; E. Ellison; J. Flueck; P. D. Lampru; K. C. Young; J. Weaver; R. S. Philips; R. Shaw; T. R. Stewart; S. M. Zubrick
An All-Weather Observational Operator for Radiance Data Assimilation with Mesoscale Forecast Models
Assimilating satellite radiance data under all weather conditions remains an outstanding problem in numerical weather prediction. This study develops an observational operator for use in radiance assimilation under both clear and cloudy ...
Thomas J. Greenwald; Rolf Hertenstein; Tomislava Vuki?evi?
Thunderstorm lightning and radar characteristics: insights on electrification and severe weather forecasting
Total lightning mapping, along with radar and NLDN cloud-to-ground lightning data, can be used to diagnose the severity of a storm. Analysis of the 13 October 2001 supercell event (Dallas-Fort Worth, Texas), some supercells of which were tornadic, shows that LDAR II lightning source heights (quartile, median, and 95th percentile heights) increased as the storms intensified. Most of the total lightning occurred where reflectivity cores extended upwards and within regions of reflectivity gradient rather than in reflectivity cores. A total lightning hole was associated with an intense, nontornadic supercell on 6 April 2003. This feature was nonexistent from all supercells analyzed during the 13 October case. During tornadogenesis, the radar and LDAR II data indicated updraft weakening. The height of the 30 dBZ radar top began to descend approximately 10 minutes (2 volume scans) before tornado touchdown in one storm. Total lightning and CG flash rates decreased by up to a factor of 5 to a minimum during an F2 tornado touchdown associated with this storm. LDAR II source heights all showed descent by 2-4 km during a 25 minute period prior to and during this tornado touchdown. This drastic trend of decreasing source heights was observed in two tornadic storms prior to and during tornado touchdown, but did not occur in non-tornadic supercells, suggesting that these parameters can be useful to forecasters. These observations agree with tornadogenesis theory that an updraft weakens and the mesocyclone can become divided (composed of both updraft and downdraft) when a storm becomes tornadic. LDAR II source density contours were comma-shaped in association with severe wind events within mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) on 13 October 2001 and 27 May 2002. This signature is similar to the radar reflectivity bow echo. Consistent relationships between severe weather, radar and lightning storm characteristics (i.e., lightning heights) were not found for cells within MCSs as was the case for supercells. Cell interactions within MCSs are believed to weaken these relationships as reflectivity and lightning from nearby storms contaminate the cells of interest. It is also more difficult to clearly define a cell within an MCS.
Steiger, Scott Michael
Evaluation of a Simple Numerical Model as a Mesoscale Weather Forecasting Tool
During the America's Cup race series of 1986�1987, a numerical sea breeze model was used to assist offshore forecasts. The exercise has provided a detailed insight into the extent to which such a model may assist the forecasting process the ...
P. J. Rye
Hydrologic scales, cloud variability, remote sensing, and models: Implications for forecasting snowmelt and streamflow
econ. WEATHER AND FORECASTING Environmental decisions (1993seasonal, and WEATHER AND FORECASTING V OLUME 19 spatialfor details. WEATHER AND FORECASTING V OLUME 19 T ABLE 2.
Simpson, James J; Dettinger, M D; Gehrke, F; McIntire, T J; Hufford, G L
Using a Business Process Model as a Central Organizing Construct for an Undergraduate Weather Forecasting Course
For the last five years, the author has employed a business process model as a central organizing construct for the senior-level Forecasting Techniques course at Embry- Riddle Aeronautical University's Daytona Beach, Florida, campus. The process model ...
John M. Lanicci
The Impact of Analysis Error on Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
All meteorological analyzed fields contain errors, the magnitude of which ultimately determines the point at which a given forecast will fail. Here, the authors explore the extent to which analysis difference fields capture certain aspects of the ...
Kyle L. Swanson; Paul J. Roebber
Short-Term Probabilistic Forecasts of Ceiling and Visibility Utilizing High-Density Surface Weather Observations
An automated statistical system that utilizes regional high-density surface observations to forecast low ceiling and visibility events in the upper Midwest is presented. The system is based solely upon surface observations as predictors, ...
Stephen M. Leyton; J. Michael Fritsch
MAP D-PHASE: Real-Time Demonstration of Weather Forecast Quality in the Alpine Region
Demonstration of probabilistic hydrological and atmospheric simulation of flood events in the Alpine region (D-PHASE) is made by the Forecast Demonstration Project in connection with the Mesoscale Alpine Programme (MAP). Its focus lies in the end-...
Mathias W. Rotach; Paolo Ambrosetti; Christof Appenzeller; Marco Arpagaus; Lionel Fontannaz; Felix Fundel; Urs Germann; Alessandro Hering; Mark A. Liniger; Marco Stoll; Andre Walser; Felix Ament; Hans-Stefan Bauer; Andreas Behrendt; Volker Wulfmeyer; Fran�ois Bouttier; Yann Seity; Andrea Buzzi; Silvio Davolio; Matteo Corazza; Michael Denhard; Manfred Dorninger; Theresa Gorgas; Jacqueline Frick; Christoph Hegg; Massimiliano Zappa; Christian Keil; Hans Volkert; Chiara Marsigli; Andrea Montaini; Ron McTaggart-Cowan; Ken Mylne; Roberto Ranzi; Evelyne Richard; Andrea Rossa; Daniel Santos-Mu�oz; Christoph Sch�r; Michael Staudinger; Yong Wang; Johannes Werhahn
Computing the Low-Elevation Variant of the Haines Index for Fire Weather Forecasts
The Haines index is used in wildfire forecasting and monitoring to evaluate the potential contributions of atmospheric stability and humidity to the behavior of plume-dominated wildfires. The index has three variants (�low,� �mid,� and �high�) ...
Brian E. Potter; Julie A. Winkler; Dwight F. Wilhelm; Ryan P. Shadbolt; Xindi Bian
Distributed Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting Using Information from Radar and Numerical Weather Prediction Models
The benefits of short-term (1�6 h), distributed quantitative precipitation forecasts (DQPFs) are well known. However, this area is acknowledged to be one of the most challenging in hydrometeorology. Previous studies suggest that the �state of the ...
Auroop R. Ganguly; Rafael L. Bras
Boater Safety: Communicating Weather Forecast Information to High-Stakes End Users
Recreational boaters in the Pacific Northwest understand that there is uncertainty inherent in deterministic forecasts as well as some of the factors that increase uncertainty. This was determined in an online survey of 166 boaters in the Puget ...
Sonia Savelli; Susan Joslyn
Weather: Project homepage
data with weather measurement instruments, interpreting the data, and forecasting weather conditions. Students use the Internet as a tool to research information, share...
VISIT: Bringing Training to Weather Service Forecasters Using a New Distance-Learning Tool
What is the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Weather Service doing in these times of rapidly changing technology and falling budgets to maintain high training standards? One solution used by NOAA's Virtual Institute ...
Anthony Mostek; John Weaver; Dan Bikos; Dan Lindsey; Bard Zajac; Scott Bachmeier; Tom Whittaker; Brian Motta; Brad Grant; Jim LaDue; John Ferree
Localized Precipitation Forecasts from a Numerical Weather Prediction Model Using Artificial Neural Networks
Although the resolution of numerical weather prediction models continues to improve, many of the processes that influence precipitation are still not captured adequately by the scales of present operational models, and consequently precipitation ...
Robert J. Kuligowski; Ana P. Barros
Early Severe Thunderstorm Forecasting and Research by the United States weather Bureau
In the early nineteenth century, fragmentary weather observing networks were established in portions of the United States, primarily to constitute a climatological history. The invention of the telegraph in 1833 and its availability to the public ...
Joseph O. Galway
The Weather Risk Management Industry's Climate Forecast and Data Needs: A Workshop Report
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the Risk Prediction Initiative, and the Weather Risk Management Association jointly sponsored a workshop that examined a variety of issues related to climate forecastand data products ...
Richard J. Murnane; Michael Crowe; Allan Eustis; Susan Howard; Judy Koepsell; Robert Leffler; Robert Livezey
Verification of Mesoscale Numerical Weather Forecasts in Mountainous Terrain for Application to Avalanche Prediction
Two high-resolution, real-time, numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are verified against case study observations to quantify their accuracy and skill in the mountainous terrain of western Canada. These models, run daily at the University of ...
Claudia Roeger; Roland Stull; David McClung; Joshua Hacker; Xingxiu Deng; Henryk Modzelewski
Linear Regime Duration: Is 24 Hours a Long Time in Synoptic Weather Forecasting?
Day-to-day variations in the growth of uncertainty in the current state of the atmosphere have led to operational ensemble weather predictions in which an ensemble of different initial conditions, each perturbed from the best estimate of the ...
Isla Gilmour; Leonard A. Smith; Roberto Buizza
The Importance of Understanding Mesoscale Model Parameterization Schemes for Weather Forecasting
A severe weather outbreak that occurred on 21�23 November 1992 in the southern United States is used to illustrate how an understanding of model parameterization schemes can help in the evaluation and utilization of mesoscale model output. ...
John V. Cortinas Jr.; David J. Stensrud
Cold Fronts Aloft and the Forecasting of Precipitation and Severe Weather East of the Rocky Mountains
Brief descriptions are given of four cases that illustrate the important role that cold fronts aloft (CFA) can play in producing significant weather cast of the Rocky Mountains. In all four cases, the CFA, and its associated short wave, were ...
Peter V. Hobbs; John D. Locatelli; Jonathan E. Martin
Use of Information by National Weather Service Forecasters and Emergency Managers during CALJET and PACJET-2001
Winter storms making landfall in western North America can generate heavy precipitation and other significant weather, leading to floods, landslides, and other hazards that cause significant damage and loss of life. To help alleviate these ...
Rebecca E. Morss; F. Martin Ralph
Online 24-h solar power forecasting based on weather typeweather observations at blue hill massachusetts,� Solarof weather patterns on the intensity of solar irradiance;
Utilization of Automatic Weather Station Data for Forecasting High Wind Speeds at Pegasus Runway, Antarctica
Reduced visibility due to blowing snow can severely hinder aircraft operations in the Antarctic. Wind speeds in excess of approximately 7�13 m s?1 can result in blowing snow. The ability to forecast high wind speed events can improve the safety ...
R. E. Holmes; C. R. Stearns; G. A. Weidner; L. M. Keller
Evaluation of the Sensitivity of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model to Parameterization Schemes for Regional Climates of Europe over the Period 1990�95
The Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) is used to downscale interim ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) data for the climate over Europe for the period 1990�95 with grid spacing of 0.44� for 12 combinations of physical parameterizations. Two ...
P. A. Mooney; F. J. Mulligan; R. Fealy
Performance of National Weather Service Forecasts Compared to Operational, Consensus, and Weighted Model Output Statistics
Model output statistics (MOS) guidance has been the central model postprocessing approach used by the National Weather Service since the 1970s. A recent advancement in the use of MOS is the application of �consensus� MOS (CMOS), an average of MOS ...
Jeffrey A. Baars; Clifford F. Mass
The Weather Research and Forecasting Model's Community Variational/Ensemble Data Assimilation System: WRFDA
Data assimilation is the process by which observations are combined with short-range NWP model output to produce an analysis of the state of the atmosphere at a specified time. Since its inception in the late 1990s, the multiagency Weather Research and ...
Dale Barker; Xiang-Yu Huang; Zhiquan Liu; Tom Aulign�; Xin Zhang; Steven Rugg; Raji Ajjaji; Al Bourgeois; John Bray; Yongsheng Chen; Meral Demirtas; Yong-Run Guo; Tom Henderson; Wei Huang; Hui-Chuan Lin; John Michalakes; Syed Rizvi; Xiaoyan Zhang
Forecasting in Meteorology
Public weather forecasting heralded the beginning of modern meteorology less than 150 years ago. Since then, meteorology has been largely a forecasting discipline. Thus, forecasting could have easily been used to test and develop hypotheses, ...
C. S. Ramage
A Diagnostic Verification of the Precipitation Forecasts Produced by the Canadian Ensemble Prediction System
A comparatively long period of relative stability in the evolution of the Canadian Ensemble Forecast System was exploited to compile a large homogeneous set of precipitation forecasts. The probability of exceedance of a given threshold was ...
Syd Peel; Laurence J. Wilson
NEWTON's Weather Videos
day. Learn about all sorts of weather phenomena or just get a video of your daily forecast. NOAA Weather Partner's Videos NOAA Weather Partner's Videos The National Oceanic and...
Weather Forecasting for Utility Companies For energy and utility companies, expected local weather conditions during the next day or two are
SUBJECT: Revised Short-term Electricity Loads and Forecast 2008-2017 As part of the Mid-term Assessment-term electricity loads and forecast 2008-2017- boise 2012 .docx #12;6/28/2012 1 REVISED SHORT-TERM ELECTRICITY and as input to the Resource Adequacy analysis, we have prepared an update to the regional load forecast
A New Verification Score for Public Forecasts
CREF, a new verification score for public forecasts, is introduced. This verification score rewards a forecaster who forecasts a rare event accurately. CREF was used to verify local forecasts at the Weather Service Forecast Office (WSFO) in ...
Dean P. Gulezian
The Los Alamos dynamic radiation environment assimilation model (DREAM) for space weather specification and forecasting
The Dynamic Radiation Environment Assimilation Model (DREAM) was developed at Los Alamos National Laboratory to assess, quantify, and predict the hazards from the natural space environment and the anthropogenic environment produced by high altitude nuclear explosions (HANE). DREAM was initially developed as a basic research activity to understand and predict the dynamics of the Earth's Van Allen radiation belts. It uses Kalman filter techniques to assimilate data from space environment instruments with a physics-based model of the radiation belts. DREAM can assimilate data from a variety of types of instruments and data with various levels of resolution and fidelity by assigning appropriate uncertainties to the observations. Data from any spacecraft orbit can be assimilated but DREAM was designed to function with as few as two spacecraft inputs: one from geosynchronous orbit and one from GPS orbit. With those inputs, DREAM can be used to predict the environment at any satellite in any orbit whether space environment data are available in those orbits or not. Even with very limited data input and relatively simple physics models, DREAM specifies the space environment in the radiation belts to a high level of accuracy. DREAM has been extensively tested and evaluated as we transition from research to operations. We report here on one set of test results in which we predict the environment in a highly-elliptical polar orbit. We also discuss long-duration reanalysis for spacecraft design, using DREAM for real-time operations, and prospects for 1-week forecasts of the radiation belt environment.
Reeves, Geoffrey D [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Friedel, Reiner H W [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Chen, Yue [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Koller, Josef [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Henderson, Michael G [Los Alamos National Laboratory
Forecasting Forecast Skill
We have shown that it is possible to predict the skill of numerical weather forecasts�a quantity which is variable from day to day and region to region. This has been accomplished using as predictor the dispersion (measured by the average ...
Eugenia Kalnay; Amnon Dalcher
Probabilistic Verification of Monthly Temperature Forecasts
Monthly forecasting bridges the gap between medium-range weather forecasting and seasonal predictions. While such forecasts in the prediction range of 1�4 weeks are vital to many applications in the context of weather and climate risk management, ...
Andreas P. Weigel; Daniel Baggenstos; Mark A. Liniger; Fr�d�ric Vitart; Christof Appenzeller
Precipitation Forecasting Using Doppler Radar Data, a Cloud Model with Adjoint, and the Weather Research and Forecasting Model: Real Case Studies during SoWMEX in Taiwan
The quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) capability of the Variational Doppler Radar Analysis System (VDRAS) is investigated in the Taiwan area, where the complex topography and surrounding oceans pose great challenges to accurate rainfall ...
Sheng-Lun Tai; Yu-Chieng Liou; Juanzhen Sun; Shao-Fan Chang; Min-Chao Kuo
The Challenge of Forecasting Heavy Rain and Flooding throughout the Eastern Region of the National Weather Service. Part II: Forecast Techniques and Applications
Over the years, as the recognition and understanding of the structure and climatic frequency of heavy-rain events has expanded, there has been a corresponding improvement in the available forecast guidance on both the national and local level. ...
Harold H. Opitz; Solomon G. Summer; David A. Wert; Warren R. Snyder; Richard J. Kane; Raymond H. Brady; Paul M. Stokols; Stephan C. Kuhl; Gary M. Carter
Ability to Forecast Regional Soil Moisture with a Distributed Hydrological Model Using ECMWF Rainfall Forecasts
This study mimics an online forecast system to provide nine day-ahead forecasts of regional soil moisture. It uses modified ensemble rainfall forecasts from the numerical weather prediction model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ...
J. M. Schuurmans; M. F. P. Bierkens
A Weather-Pattern-Based Approach to Evaluate the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS) Forecasts: Comparison to Automatic Weather Station Observations
Typical model evaluation strategies evaluate models over large periods of time (months, seasons, years, etc.) or for single case studies such as severe storms or other events of interest. The weather-pattern-based model evaluation technique ...
Melissa A. Nigro; John J. Cassano; Mark W. Seefeldt
Winter Weather Forecasting throughout the Eastern United States. Part III: The Effects of Topography and the Variability of Winter Weather in the Carolinas and Virginia
Winter weather in the Carolinas and Virginia is highly variable and influenced by the area's diverse topography and geography. The Gulf Stream, the highest mountains in the Appalachians, the largest coastal lagoonal system in the United States, ...
Kermit K. Keeter; Steven Businger; Laurence G. Lee; Jeff S. Waldstreicher
Modeling and Forecasting Aurora
Modeling the physical processes needed for forecasting space-weather events requires multiscale modeling. This article discusses several modelsresearchers use to treat the various auroral processes that influence space weather.
Dirk Lummerzheim
Forecasting and Diagnostic Analysis of Plume Transport around a Power Plant
A nonreactive Lagrangian atmospheric diffusion model is used for the simulation of SO2 concentration around the As Pontes 1400-MW power plant located in northwestern Spain. This diffusion model has two kinds of input: 1) diagnostic wind fields ...
J. A. Souto; V. P�rez-Mu�uzuri; M. deCastro; M. J. Souto; J. J. Casares; T. Lucas
5.5 ENSEMBLE RE-FORECASTING : IMPROVING MEDIUM-RANGE FORECAST SKILL USING RETROSPECTIVE FORECASTS, Colorado 1. INTRODUCTION Improving weather forecasts is a primary goal of the U.S. National Oceanic predictions has been to improve the accuracy of the numerical forecast models. Much effort has been expended
Hamill, Tom
An Objective Comparison of Model Output Statistics and �Perfect Prog� Systems in Producing Numerical Weather Element Forecasts
The �perfect prog� (PP) and model output statistics (MOS) approaches were used to develop multiple linear regression equations to forecast probabilities of more than a trace of precipitation over 6-h periods, probabilities of precipitation ...
N. Brunet; R. Verret; N. Yacowar
Convection-Allowing and Convection-Parameterizing Ensemble Forecasts of a Mesoscale Convective Vortex and Associated Severe Weather Environment
An analysis of a regional severe weather outbreak that was related to a mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) is performed. The MCV-spawning mesoscale convection system (MCS) formed in northwest Kansas along the southern periphery of a large cutoff ...
Adam J. Clark; William A. Gallus Jr.; Ming Xue; Fanyou Kong
Verification of National Weather Service Ensemble Streamflow Predictions for Water Supply Forecasting in the Colorado River Basin
The Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) system, developed by the National Weather Service (NWS), uses conceptual hydrologic models and historical data to generate a set, or ensemble, of possible streamflow scenarios conditioned on the initial ...
Kristie J. Franz; Holly C. Hartmann; Soroosh Sorooshian; Roger Bales
the entire forecast period, primarily because both weather-adjusted peak and electricity consumption were forecast. Keywords Electricity demand, electricity consumption, demand forecast, weather normalization, annual peak demand, natural gas demand, self-generation, conservation, California Solar Initiative. #12
Probabilistic Visibility Forecasting Using Bayesian Model Averaging
Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is a statistical postprocessing technique that has been used in probabilistic weather forecasting to calibrate forecast ensembles and generate predictive probability density functions (PDFs) for weather quantities. ...
Richard M. Chmielecki; Adrian E. Raftery
Forecaster Workstation Design: Concepts and Issues
Some basic ideas about designing a meteorological workstation for operational weather forecasting are presented, in part as a complement to the recently published discussion of workstation design by R. R. Hoffman. Scientific weather forecasting ...
Evaluation of Mixed-Phase Cloud Parameterizations in Short-Range Weather Forecasts with CAM3 and AM2 for Mixed-Phase Arctic Cloud Experiment
By making use of the in-situ data collected from the recent Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Mixed-Phase Arctic Cloud Experiment, we have tested the mixed-phase cloud parameterizations used in the two major U.S. climate models, the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Atmosphere Model version 3 (CAM3) and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory climate model (AM2), under both the single-column modeling framework and the U.S. Department of Energy Climate Change Prediction Program-Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Parameterization Testbed. An improved and more physically based cloud microphysical scheme for CAM3 has been also tested. The single-column modeling tests were summarized in the second quarter 2007 Atmospheric Radiation Measurement metric report. In the current report, we document the performance of these microphysical schemes in short-range weather forecasts using the Climate Chagne Prediction Program Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Parameterizaiton Testbest strategy, in which we initialize CAM3 and AM2 with realistic atmospheric states from numerical weather prediction analyses for the period when Mixed-Phase Arctic Cloud Experiment was conducted.
Xie, S; Boyle, J; Klein, S; Liu, X; Ghan, S
Operational Forecaster Uncertainty Needs and Future Roles
Key results of a comprehensive survey of U.S. National Weather Service operational forecast managers concerning the assessment and communication of forecast uncertainty are presented and discussed. The survey results revealed that forecasters are ...
David R. Novak; David R. Bright; Michael J. Brennan
On the Prediction of Forecast Skill
Using 10-day forecast 500 mb height data from the last 7 yr, the potential to predict the skill of numerical weather forecasts is discussed. Four possible predictor sets are described. The first, giving the consistency between adjacent forecasts, ...
T. N. Palmer; S. Tibaldi
Calibration of Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts
From 1 August 1990 to 31 July 1995, the Weather Service Forecast Office in Pittsburgh prepared 6159 probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts. Forecasts were made twice a day for 24-h periods beginning at 0000 and 1200 UTC for two river ...
Roman Krzysztofowicz; Ashley A. Sigrest
Improving Forecast Communication: Linguistic and Cultural Considerations
One goal of weather and climate forecasting is to inform decision making. Effective communication of forecasts to various sectors of the public is essential for meeting that goal, yet studies repeatedly show that forecasts are not well understood ...
Karen Pennesi
What Is the True Value of Forecasts?
Understanding the economic value of weather and climate forecasts is of tremendous practical importance. Traditional models that have attempted to gauge forecast value have focused on a best-case scenario, in which forecast users are assumed to ...
Antony Millner
Short-Range Ensemble Forecasts of Precipitation Type
Short-range ensemble forecasting is extended to a critical winter weather problem: forecasting precipitation type. Forecast soundings from the operational NCEP Short-Range Ensemble Forecast system are combined with five precipitation-type ...
Matthew S. Wandishin; Michael E. Baldwin; Steven L. Mullen; John V. Cortinas Jr.
IdentifyingWeather Systems from NumericalWeather Prediction Data
Weather systems such as tropical cyclones, fronts, troughs and ridges affect our daily lives. Yet, they are often manually located and drawn on weather charts based on forecasters' experience. To identify them, multiple atmospheric elements need to be ...
WONG Ka Yan; YIP Chi Lap; LI Ping Wah
Weather Classification Using Passive Acoustic Drifters
Weather observations are needed in remote oceanic regions to support numerical weather forecast models, to provide surface truth for satellite sensors, and to help understand global weather patterns. An acoustic mini-drifting buoy using no moving ...
Jeffrey A. Nystuen; Harry D. Selsor
Calibrated Precipitation Forecasts for a Limited-Area Ensemble Forecast System Using Reforecasts
The calibration of numerical weather forecasts using reforecasts has been shown to increase the skill of weather predictions. Here, the precipitation forecasts from the Consortium for Small Scale Modeling Limited Area Ensemble Prediction System (...
Felix Fundel; Andre Walser; Mark A. Liniger; Christoph Frei; Christof Appenzeller
Visual data fusion for applications of high-resolution numerical weather prediction
Keywords: data fusion, demographics, energy demand prediction, graphics design, meteorology, user tasks, visualization, weather forecasting
Lloyd A. Treinish
Implementation and assessment of turbine wake models in the Weather Research and Forecasting model for both mesoscale and large-eddy simulation
Flow dynamics in large wind projects are influenced by the turbines located within. The turbine wakes, regions characterized by lower wind speeds and higher levels of turbulence than the surrounding free stream flow, can extend several rotor diameters downstream, and may meander and widen with increasing distance from the turbine. Turbine wakes can also reduce the power generated by downstream turbines and accelerate fatigue and damage to turbine components. An improved understanding of wake formation and transport within wind parks is essential for maximizing power output and increasing turbine lifespan. Moreover, the influence of wakes from large wind projects on neighboring wind farms, agricultural activities, and local climate are all areas of concern that can likewise be addressed by wake modeling. This work describes the formulation and application of an actuator disk model for studying flow dynamics of both individual turbines and arrays of turbines within wind projects. The actuator disk model is implemented in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, which is an open-source atmospheric simulation code applicable to a wide range of scales, from mesoscale to large-eddy simulation. Preliminary results demonstrate the applicability of the actuator disk model within WRF to a moderately high-resolution large-eddy simulation study of a small array of turbines.
Singer, M; Mirocha, J; Lundquist, J; Cleve, J
Pacific Northwest water supply forecast to be near or below normal ...
Tools; Glossary � All Reports ... weather; gasoline; capacity; exports; nuclear; forecast; View All Tags ...
CONUS-wide Evaluation of National Weather Service Flash Flood Guidance Products
This study quantifies the skill of the National Weather Service�s (NWS) Flash Flood Guidance (FFG) product. Generated by River Forecast Centers (RFCs) across the US, local NWS Weather Forecast Offices compare estimated and forecast rainfall to FFG ...
Robert A. Clark; Jonathan J. Gourley; Zachary L. Flamig; Yang Hong; Edward Clark
Diagnosing Forecast Errors in Tropical Cyclone Motion
This paper reports on the development of a diagnostic approach that can be used to examine the sources of numerical model forecast error that contribute to degraded tropical cyclone (TC) motion forecasts. Tropical cyclone motion forecasts depend ...
Thomas J. Galarneau Jr.; Christopher A. Davis
Convergence and Disposal of Energy and Moisture on the Antarctic Polar Cap from ECMWF Reanalyses and Forecasts
Diagnostics of energy and moisture transport and disposal over the Antarctic polar cap (70�S to the pole) and ice sheet are extracted from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis archive over the 1979�93 period. ...
Christophe Genthon; Gerhard Krinner
Using Wind Anomalies to Forecast East Coast Winter Storms
Forecasting major winter storms is a critical function for all weather services. Conventional model-derived fields from numerical weather prediction models most frequently utilized by operational forecasters, such as pressure level geopotential ...
Neil A. Stuart; Richard H. Grumm
Forecasting the 12�14 March 1993 Superstorm
This paper describes the decision-making process used by the forecasters in the National Meteorological Center's Meteorological Operations Division and in Weather Forecast Offices of the National Weather Service to provide the successful ...
Louis W. Uccellini; Paul J. Kocin; Russell S. Schneider; Paul M. Stokols; Russell A. Dorr
Effects of soot-induced snow albedo change on snowpack and hydrological cycle in western United States based on Weather Research and Forecasting chemistry and regional climate simulations
Radiative forcing induced by soot on snow is a major anthropogenic forcing affecting the global climate. However, it is uncertain how the soot-induced snow albedo perturbation affects regional snowpack and the hydrological cycle. In this study we simulated the deposition of soot aerosol on snow and investigated the resulting impact on snowpack and the surface water budget in the western United States. A yearlong simulation was performed using the chemistry version of the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF-Chem) to determine an annual budget of soot deposition, followed by two regional climate simulations using WRF in meteorology-only mode, with and without the soot-induced snow albedo perturbations. The chemistry simulation shows large spatial variability in soot deposition that reflects the localized emissions and the influence of the complex terrain. The soot-induced snow albedo perturbations increase the net solar radiation flux at the surface during late winter to early spring, increase the surface air temperature, reduce snow water equivalent amount, and lead to reduced snow accumulation and less spring snowmelt. These effects are stronger over the central Rockies and southern Alberta, where soot deposition and snowpack overlap the most. The indirect forcing of soot accelerates snowmelt and alters stream flows, including a trend toward earlier melt dates in the western United States. The soot-induced albedo reduction initiates a positive feedback process whereby dirty snow absorbs more solar radiation, heating the surface and warming the air. This warming causes reduced snow depth and fraction, which further reduces the regional surface albedo for the snow covered regions. Our simulations indicate that the change of maximum snow albedo induced by soot on snow contributes to 60% of the net albedo reduction over the central Rockies. Snowpack reduction accounts for the additional 40%.
Qian, Yun; Gustafson, William I.; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Ghan, Steven J.
Forecasting during the Lake-ICE/SNOWBANDS Field Experiments
Despite improvements in numerical weather prediction models, statistical models, forecast decision trees, and forecasting rules of thumb, human interpretation of meteorological information for a particular forecast situation can still yield a ...
Peter J. Sousounis; Greg E. Mann; George S. Young; Richard B. Wagenmaker; Bradley D. Hoggatt; William J. Badini
GET your forecast at the click of a button.
GET your forecast at the click of a button. EXPLORE your local weather in detail. PLAN your days favourite locations; · Pan and zoom to any area in Australia; · Combine the latest weather and forecast current temperatures across Australia. MetEyeTM computer screen image displaying the weather forecast
Greenslade, Diana
or over predicting electricity demand due to poor weather forecasts is several hundred million dollars outages that many in the area experienced. Deep Thunder can also improve generation-side load forecasting by providing high-resolution weather forecast data for use in electricity demand forecast models. Integrating
Manry, Michael
Load Forecast For use in Resource Adequacy
Load Forecast 2019 For use in Resource Adequacy Massoud Jourabchi #12;In today's presentation d l Load forecast methodology Drivers of the forecast f i Treatment of conservation Incorporating impact of weather Forecast for 2019 #12;Regional Loads (MWA and MW)Regional Loads (MWA and MW
Intercomparison of Spatial Forecast Verification Methods
Advancements in weather forecast models and their enhanced resolution have led to substantially improved and more realistic-appearing forecasts for some variables. However, traditional verification scores often indicate poor performance because ...
Eric Gilleland; David Ahijevych; Barbara G. Brown; Barbara Casati; Elizabeth E. Ebert
Internet Weather Source | Data.gov
(NWS) National Telecommunications Gateway provides weather, hydrologic, and climate forecasts and warnings for the United States, its territories, adjacent waters and ocean...
In accretion-based models for Sgr A*, the X-ray, infrared, and millimeter emission arise in a hot, geometrically thick accretion flow close to the black hole. The spectrum and size of the source depend on the black hole mass accretion rate M-dot . Since Gillessen et al. have recently discovered a cloud moving toward Sgr A* that will arrive in summer 2013, M-dot may increase from its present value M-dot{sub 0}. We therefore reconsider the 'best-bet' accretion model of Moscibrodzka et al., which is based on a general relativistic MHD flow model and fully relativistic radiative transfer, for a range of M-dot . We find that for modest increases in M-dot the characteristic ring of emission due to the photon orbit becomes brighter, more extended, and easier to detect by the planned Event Horizon Telescope submillimeter Very Long Baseline Interferometry experiment. If M-dot {approx}>8 M-dot{sub 0}, this 'silhouette' of the black hole will be hidden beneath the synchrotron photosphere at 230 GHz, and for M-dot {approx}>16 M-dot{sub 0} the silhouette is hidden at 345 GHz. We also find that for M-dot > 2 M-dot{sub 0} the near-horizon accretion flow becomes a persistent X-ray and mid-infrared source, and in the near-infrared Sgr A* will acquire a persistent component that is brighter than currently observed flares.
Moscibrodzka, M. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Nevada, 4505 South Maryland Parkway, Las Vegas, NV 89154 (United States); Shiokawa, H.; Gammie, C. F. [Astronomy Department, University of Illinois, 1002 West Green Street, Urbana, IL 61801 (United States); Dolence, J. C., E-mail: email@example.com [Department of Astrophysical Sciences, Princeton University, Peyton Hall, 4 Ivy Lane, Princeton, NJ 08544 (United States)
A Fingerprinting Technique for Major Weather Events
Advances in numerical weather prediction have occurred on numerous fronts, from sophisticated physics packages in the latest mesoscale models to multimodel ensembles of medium-range predictions. Thus, the skill of numerical weather forecasts ...
Benjamin Root; Paul Knight; George Young; Steven Greybush; Richard Grumm; Ron Holmes; Jeremy Ross
Operations of the National Weather Service Spaceflight Meteorology Group
Weather is a significant aspect of most space shuttle launches and landings. The National Weather Service Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) at Johnson Space Center (JSC) in Houston, Texas, provides weather forecasts and advice to support space ...
Frank C. Brody; Richard A. Lafosse; Dan G. Bellue; Timothy D. Oram
Forecast Advisory for the Late Fall Heavy Rainfall/Flood Event in Central Vietnam Developed from Diagnostic Analysis
The formations of heavy rainfall/flood (HRF) events in Vietnam are studied from diagnostic analyses of 31 events during the period 1979�2009. HRF events develop from the cold surge vortices formed around the Philippines. These vortices� speed, ...
Tsing-Chang Chen; Ming-Cheng Yen; Jenq-Dar Tsay; Jordan Alpert; Nguyen Thi Tan Thanh
Short-Range Direct and Diffuse Irradiance Forecasts for Solar Energy Applications Based on Aerosol Chemical Transport and Numerical Weather Modeling
This study examines 2�3-day solar irradiance forecasts with respect to their application in solar energy industries, such as yield prediction for the integration of the strongly fluctuating solar energy into the electricity grid. During cloud-...
Hanne Breitkreuz; Marion Schroedter-Homscheidt; Thomas Holzer-Popp; Stefan Dech
Characteristics of Target Areas Selected by the Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter for Medium-Range Forecasts of High-Impact Winter Weather
The characteristics of �target� locations of tropospheric wind and temperature identified by a modified version of the ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF), in order to reduce 0�7-day forecast errors over North America, are explored from the ...
Sharanya J. Majumdar; Kathryn J. Sellwood; Daniel Hodyss; Zoltan Toth; Yucheng Song
An Operational Model for Forecasting Probability of Precipitation and Yes/No Forecast
An operational system for forecasting probability of precipitation (PoP) and yes/no forecast over 10 stations during monsoon season is developed. A perfect prog method (PPM) approach is followed for statistical interpretation of numerical weather ...
Ashok Kumar; Parvinder Maini; S. V. Singh
A Probabilistic Forecast Contest and the Difficulty in Assessing Short-Range Forecast Uncertainty
Results are presented from a probability-based weather forecast contest. Rather than evaluating the absolute errors of nonprobabilistic temperature and precipitation forecasts, as is common in other contests, this contest evaluated the skill of ...
Thomas M. Hamill; Daniel S. Wilks
Identification of Highly Predictable Flow Elements for Spatial Filtering of Medium- and Extended-Range Numerical Forecasts
To determine if some flow components are systematically forecast more accurately than others, 990 wintertime medium-range forecasts made at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are examined. It is found that forecasts ...
Grant Branstator; Andrew Mai; David Baumhefner
Meteorological Research Needs for Improved Air Quality Forecasting: Report of the 11th Prospectus Development Team of the U.S. Weather Research Program*
The U.S. Weather Research Program convenes expert working groups on a one-time basis to identify critical research needs in various problem areas. The most recent expert working group was charged to �identify and delineate critical meteorological ...
Walter F. Dabberdt; Mary Anne Carroll; Darrel Baumgardner; Gregory Carmichael; Ronald Cohen; Tim Dye; James Ellis; Georg Grell; Sue Grimmond; Steven Hanna; John Irwin; Brian Lamb; Sasha Madronich; Jeff McQueen; James Meagher; Talat Odman; Jonathan Pleim; Hans Peter Schmid; Douglas L. Westphal
Comparative Analysis of the Local Observation-Based (LOB) Method and the Nonparametric Regression-Based Method for Gridded Bias Correction in Mesoscale Weather Forecasting
The comparative analysis of three methods for objective grid-based bias removal in mesoscale numerical weather prediction models is considered. The first technique is the local observation-based (LOB) method that extends further the approaches of ...
Yulia R. Gel
Forecast Correlation Coefficient Matrix of Stock Returns in Portfolio Analysis
Unadjusted Forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Unadjusted Forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Zhao, Feng
Application of a WRF Mesoscale Data Assimilation System to Springtime Severe Weather Events 2007�09
An ensemble-based data assimilation system using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) has been used to initialize forecasts of prolific severe weather events from springs 2007 to 2009. These experiments build on previous work that has ...
Dustan M. Wheatley; David J. Stensrud; David C. Dowell; Nusrat Yussouf
Summer Weather Simulation for the Semiarid Lower Colorado River Basin: Case Tests
Accurate summertime weather forecasts, particularly the quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), over the semiarid southwest United States pose a difficult challenge for numerical models. Two case studies, one with typical weather on 6 July ...
J. Li; X. Gao; R. A. Maddox; S. Sorooshian; K. Hsu
Building Energy Software Tools Directory: Energy Usage Forecasts
Energy Usage Forecasts Energy Usage Forecasts Energy Usage Forecasts Quick and easy web-based tool that provides free 14-day ahead energy usage forecasts based on the degree day forecasts for 1,200 stations in the U.S. and Canada. The user enters the daily non-weather base load and the usage per degree day weather factor; the tool applies the degree day forecast and displays the total energy usage forecast. Helpful FAQs explain the process and describe various options for the calculation of the base load and weather factor. Historical degree day reports and 14-day ahead degree day forecasts are available from the same site. Keywords degree days, historical weather, mean daily temperature, load calculation, energy simulation Validation/Testing Degree day data provided by AccuWeather.com, updated daily at 0700.
A Preliminary Look at the Social Perspective of Warn-on-Forecast: Preferred Tornado Warning Lead Time and the General Public�s Perceptions of Weather Risks
Tornado warnings are currently issued an average of 13 min in advance of a tornado and are based on a warn-on-detection paradigm. However, computer model improvements may allow for a new warning paradigm, warn-on-forecast, to be established in the ...
S. Hoekstra; K. Klockow; R. Riley; J. Brotzge; H. Brooks; S. Erickson
Background pollution forecast over bulgaria
Both, the current level of air pollution studies and social needs in the country, are in a stage mature enough for creating Bulgarian Chemical Weather Forecasting and Information System The system is foreseen to provide in real time forecast of the spatial/temporal ...
D. Syrakov; K. Ganev; M. Prodanova; N. Miloshev; G. Jordanov; E. Katragkou; D. Melas; A. Poupkou; K. Markakis
Southern Hemisphere Medium-Range Forecast Skill and Predictability: A Comparison of Two Operational Models
The skill of two global numerical weather prediction models, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) medium-range forecast model and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) operational model, has been ...
James A. Renwick; Craig S. Thompson
NIST Assists in Solar Stake-Out to Improve Space Weather ...
NIST Assists in Solar Stake-Out to Improve Space Weather Forecasts. For Immediate Release: July 9, 2008. ...
Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: Weatherization...
Weatherization Assistance Program Quality Work Plan Requirements to someone by E-mail Share Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: Weatherization Assistance Program Quality...
Application of soft computing models to hourly weather analysis in southern Saskatchewan, Canada
Accurate weather forecasts are necessary for planning our day-to-day activities. However, dynamic behavior of weather makes the forecasting a formidable challenge. This study presents a soft computing model based on a radial basis function network (RBFN) ... Keywords: Artificial neural networks, Decision support, Forecasting, Modeling, Simulation, Soft computing, Weather
Imran Maqsood; Muhammad Riaz Khan; Guo H. Huang; Rifaat Abdalla
Forecast Technical Document Forecast Types
Forecast Technical Document Forecast Types A document describing how different forecast types are implemented in the 2011 Production Forecast system. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley Halsall #12;PF2011 Forecast Types Background Different `types' of forecast are possible for a specified area
Improving week two forecasts with multi-model re-forecast ensembles
Improving week two forecasts with multi-model re-forecast ensembles Jeffrey S. Whitaker and Xue Wei NOAA-CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center, Boulder, CO Fr´ed´eric Vitart Seasonal Forecasting Group, ECMWF dataset of ensemble 're-forecasts' from a single model can significantly improve the skill
Whitaker, Jeffrey S.
Tornado Pathlength Forecasts from 2010 to 2011 Using Ensemble Updraft Helicity
Examining forecasts from the Storm Scale Ensemble Forecast (SSEF) system run by the Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms for the 2010 NOAA/Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiment, recent research diagnosed a strong ...
Adam J. Clark; Jidong Gao; Patrick T. Marsh; Travis Smith; John S. Kain; James Correia Jr.; Ming Xue; Fanyou Kong
The Role of Vortex and Environment Errors in Genesis Forecasts of Hurricanes Danielle and Karl (2010)
An ensemble of Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) forecasts initialized from a cycling ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) system is used to evaluate the sensitivity of Hurricanes Danielle and Karl�s (2010) genesis forecasts to vortex and ...
Ryan D. Torn; David Cook
Verification of Convection-Allowing WRF Model Forecasts of the Planetary Boundary Layer Using Sounding Observations
This study evaluates forecasts of thermodynamic variables from five convection-allowing configurations of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) with the Advanced Research core (WRF-ARW). The forecasts vary only in their planetary ...
Michael C. Coniglio; James Correia Jr.; Patrick T. Marsh; Fanyou Kong
A Short-Term Ensemble Wind Speed Forecasting System for Wind Power Applications
This study develops an adaptive, blended forecasting system to provide accurate wind speed forecasts 1 h ahead of time for wind power applications. The system consists of an ensemble of 21 forecasts with different configurations of the Weather ...
Justin J. Traiteur; David J. Callicutt; Maxwell Smith; Somnath Baidya Roy
Aerosol effects on red blue ratio of clear sky images, and impact on solar forecasting
Bergin, M.H. From weather forecasting to exploring the solarWai, et al. "Intra-hour forecasting with a total sky imagerand Impact on Solar Forecasting A Thesis submitted in
Ghonima, Mohamed Sherif
Regionalization in Fine-Grid GFS MOS 6-h Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts
The recent emergence of the National Digital Forecast Database as the flagship product of the National Weather Service has resulted in an increased demand for forecast guidance products on fine-mesh grids. Unfortunately, fine-grid forecasts with ...
Jerome P. Charba; Frederick G. Samplatsky
Dynamical Downscaling of Austral Summer Climate Forecasts over Southern Africa Using a Regional Coupled Model
The prediction skill of dynamical downscaling is evaluated for climate forecasts over southern Africa using the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. As a case study, forecasts for the December�February (DJF) season of ...
J. V. Ratnam; S. K. Behera; S. B. Ratna; C. J. de W. Rautenbach; C. Lennard; J.-J. Luo; Y. Masumoto; K. Takahashi; T. Yamagata
The Meteorological Development Laboratory�s Aviation Weather Prediction System
The Meteorological Development Laboratory (MDL) has developed and implemented an aviation weather prediction system that runs each hour and produces forecast guidance for each hour into the future out to 25 h covering the major forecast period of ...
Judy E. Ghirardelli; Bob Glahn
The Effect of Probabilistic Information on Threshold Forecasts
The study reported here asks whether the use of probabilistic information indicating forecast uncertainty improves the quality of deterministic weather decisions. Participants made realistic wind speed forecasts based on historical information in ...
Susan Joslyn; Karla Pak; David Jones; John Pyles; Earl Hunt
J.P. Finley: The First Severe Storms Forecaster
During the 19th century, while others were debating about the theory and morphology of tornadoes, Finley set out to prove that tornadoes, like other weather phenomena, could be forecast. He developed forecast rules and made experimental ...
Joseph G. Galway
The Science of NOAA's Operational Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service
NOAA's National Weather Service (NWS) is implementing a short- to long-range Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service (HEFS). The HEFS addresses the need to quantify uncertainty in hydrologic forecasts for flood risk management, water supply management, ...
Julie Demargne; Limin Wu; Satish Regonda; James Brown; Haksu Lee; Minxue He; Dong-Jun Seo; Robert Hartman; Henry D. Herr; Mark Fresch; John Schaake; Yuejian Zhu
Operations of the National Severe Storms Forecast Center
The National Severe Storms Forecast Center in Kansas City, Missouri, is composed of several operational forecasting units, all national in scope. It includes the Severe Local Storms Unit (SELS), the National Aviation Weather Advisory Unit (NAWAU),...
Frederick P. Ostby
An Improved Operational System for Forecasting Precipitation Type
A Model Output Statistics system for forecasting the conditional probability of precipitation type (PoPT) became operational within the National Weather Service in September 1978. Forecasts are provided for three precipitation type categories: ...
Joseph R. Bocchieri; George J. Maglaras
A Neural Network Short-Term Forecast of Significant Thunderstorms
Case studies are the typical means by which meteorologists pass on their knowledge of how to solve a particular weather-forecasting problem to other forecasters. A case study helps others recognize an important pattern and enhances the ...
Donald W. McCann
A Short-Range Objective Nocturnal Temperature Forecasting Model
A relatively simple, objective, nocturnal temperature forecasting model suitable for freezing and near-freezing conditions has been designed so that a user, presumably a weather forecaster, can put in standard meteorological data at a particular ...
Robert A. Sutherland
Use of the �Odds Ratio� for Diagnosing Forecast Skill
This study investigates ways of quantifying the skill in forecasts of dichotomous weather events. The odds ratio, widely used in medical studies, can provide a powerful way of testing the association between categorical forecasts and ...
David B. Stephenson
ORNL analysis predicts losses from extreme weather damage could...
ORNL analysis predicts losses from extreme weather damage could double by 2050 Researcher tackles unprecedented county-by-county economic loss forecast Research in impacts,...
A Review of Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts and Their Use in Short- to Medium-Range Streamflow Forecasting
Unknown future precipitation is the dominant source of uncertainty for many streamflow forecasts. Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models can be used to generate quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) to reduce this uncertainty. The ...
Lan Cuo; Thomas C. Pagano; Q. J. Wang
Performance evaluation and optimization of nested high resolution weather simulations
Weather models with high spatial and temporal resolutions are required for accurate prediction of meso-micro scale weather phenomena. Using these models for operational purposes requires forecasts with sufficient lead time, which in turn calls for large ...
Preeti Malakar; Vaibhav Saxena; Thomas George; Rashmi Mittal; Sameer Kumar; Abdul Ghani Naim; Saiful Azmi Bin Hj Husain
Budget Cutting and the Value of Weather Services
The authors discuss the relationship between budget-cutting exercises and knowledge of the value of weather services. The complex interaction between quality (accuracy) and value of weather forecasts prevents theoretical approaches from ...
Charles A. Doswell III; Harold E. Brooks
Standardized Anomalies Applied to Significant Cold Season Weather Events: Preliminary Findings
Forecasting significant weather events, such as floods, heat waves, arctic outbreaks, ice storms, large severe weather outbreaks, and major winter storms, is a critical function for all weather services. However, conventional pressure level ...
Richard H. Grumm; Robert Hart
Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions | Department of Energy
in advance, allowing grid operators to predict expected wind power production. Accurate weather forecasts are critical for making energy sources -- including wind and solar --...
Forecast for Sunshine? NIST Helps Track the UV Index
... Weather forecasters around the country recently have added a new number to ... indicates when it's necessary to protect against damaging solar rays. ...
An Improved Modeling Scheme for Freezing Precipitation Forecasts
To improve forecasts of various weather elements (snow, rain, and freezing precipitation) in numerical weather prediction models, a new mixed-phase cloud scheme has been developed. The scheme is based on a single prognostic equation for total ...
Andr� Tremblay; Anna Glazer
The Developmental Testbed Center and its Winter Forecasting Experiment
The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Developmental Testbed Center (DTC) was formed to promote exchanges between the development and operational communities in the field of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP). The WRF DTC serves to accelerate ...
L�gia Bernardet; Steve Koch; Edward Szoke; Andrew Loughe; Jennifer Luppens Mahoney; Louisa Nance; Meral Demirtas; Tressa Fowler; Robert Gall; Hui-Ya Chuang; Matthew Pyle
A statistical model for risk management of electric outage forecasts
Risk management of power outages caused by severe weather events, such as hurricanes, tornadoes, and thunderstorms, plays an important role in electric utility distribution operations. Damage prediction based on weather forecasts on an appropriate spatial ...
H. Li; L. A. Treinish; J. R. M. Hosking
Data Network Weather Service Reporting - Final Report
A final report is made of a three-year effort to develop a new forecasting paradigm for computer network performance. This effort was made in co-ordination with Fermi Lab's construction of e-Weather Center.
Michael Frey
Weather forecasts have become demonstrably more accurate in recent decades due to increasingly sophisticated computer technology and models. Yet scientists cannot predict the future with 100% certainty. Relying on inaccurate or inadequate ...
Roberta Klein; Roger A. Pielke Jr.
Potential Forecast Skill of Ensemble Prediction and Spread and Skill Distributions of the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System
Ensemble forecasting is a feasible method to integrate a deterministic forecast with an estimate of the probability distribution of atmospheric states. At the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the Ensemble Prediction ...
Roberto Buizza
Use of Multiple Verification Methods to Evaluate Forecasts of Convection from Hot- and Cold-Start Convection-Allowing Models
This study uses both traditional and newer verification methods to evaluate two 4-km grid-spacing Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) forecasts: a �cold start� forecast that uses the 12-km North American Mesoscale Model (NAM) analysis and ...
Derek R. Stratman; Michael C. Coniglio; Steven E. Koch; Ming Xue
Building Energy Software Tools Directory: Degree Day Forecasts
Forecasts Forecasts Degree Day Forecasts example chart Quick and easy web-based tool that provides free 14-day ahead degree day forecasts for 1,200 stations in the U.S. and Canada. Degree Day Forecasts charts show this year, last year and three-year average. Historical degree day charts and energy usage forecasts are available from the same site. Keywords degree days, historical weather, mean daily temperature Validation/Testing Degree day data provided by AccuWeather.com, updated daily at 0700. Expertise Required No special expertise required. Simple to use. Users Over 1,000 weekly users. Audience Anyone who needs degree day forecasts (next 14 days) for the U.S. and Canada. Input Select a weather station (1,200 available) and balance point temperature. Output Charts show (1) degree day (heating and cooling) forecasts for the next 14
Assessing the Usefulness of Probabilistic Forecasts
The errors in both the initialization and simulated evolution of weather and climate models create significant uncertainties in forecasts at lead times beyond a few days. Modern prediction systems sample the sources of these uncertainties to ...
Stephen Cusack; Alberto Arribas
The ENIAC Forecasts: A Re-creation
The numerical forecasts made in 1950 using the Electronic Numerical Integrator and Computer (ENIAC) paved the way for the remarkable advances that have been made over the past half-century in weather prediction and climate modeling. We review the ...
Peter Lynch
Consensus Forecasts of Modeled Wave Parameters
The use of numerical guidance has become integral to the process of modern weather forecasting. Using various techniques, postprocessing of numerical model output has been shown to mitigate some of the deficiencies of these models, producing more ...
Tom H. Durrant; Frank Woodcock; Diana J. M. Greenslade
Forecast Combinations
Forecast combinations have frequently been found in empirical studies to produce better forecasts on average than methods based on the ex-ante best individual forecasting model. Moreover, simple combinations that ignore correlations between forecast errors often dominate more refined combination schemes aimed at estimating the theoretically optimal combination weights. In this chapter we analyze theoretically the factors that determine the advantages from combining forecasts (for example, the degree of correlation between forecast errors and the relative size of the individual models� forecast error variances). Although the reasons for the success of simple combination schemes are poorly understood, we discuss several possibilities related to model misspecification, instability (non-stationarities) and estimation error in situations where thenumbersofmodelsislargerelativetothe available sample size. We discuss the role of combinations under asymmetric loss and consider combinations of point, interval and probability forecasts. Key words: Forecast combinations; pooling and trimming; shrinkage methods; model misspecification, diversification gains
Allan Timmermann; Jel Codes C
Policy Report, over the entire forecast period, primarily because both weather-adjusted peak and commercial sectors. Keywords Electricity demand, electricity consumption, demand forecast, weather normalization, annual peak demand, natural gas demand, self-generation, California Solar Initiative. #12;ii #12
Examination of Convection-Allowing Configurations of the WRF Model for the Prediction of Severe Convective Weather: The SPC/NSSL Spring Program 2004
Convection-allowing configurations of the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model were evaluated during the 2004 Storm Prediction Center�National Severe Storms Laboratory Spring Program in a simulated severe weather forecasting environment. The ...
John S. Kain; S. J. Weiss; J. J. Levit; M. E. Baldwin; D. R. Bright
Probabilistic Forecast Calibration Using ECMWF and GFS Ensemble Reforecasts. Part I: Two-Meter Temperatures
Probabilistic Forecast Calibration Using ECMWF and GFS Ensemble Reforecasts. Part I: Two-Meter Temperatures RENATE HAGEDORN European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, United Kingdom THOMAS for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) produced a reforecast dataset for a 2005 version of their ensemble
Application of a Limited-Area Short-Range Ensemble Forecast System to a Case of Heavy Rainfall in the Mediterranean Region
Severe weather risk assessment is becoming an increasing component of the daily operational activity at advanced meteorological forecasting centers. To improve its forecast capabilities and develop a severe weather warning system, the Sardinian ...
P. A. Chessa; G. Ficca; M. Marrocu; R. Buizza
Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: Weatherization Assistance
Weatherization Assistance Program to someone by E-mail Weatherization Assistance Program to someone by E-mail Share Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: Weatherization Assistance Program on Facebook Tweet about Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: Weatherization Assistance Program on Twitter Bookmark Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: Weatherization Assistance Program on Google Bookmark Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: Weatherization Assistance Program on Delicious Rank Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: Weatherization Assistance Program on Digg Find More places to share Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: Weatherization Assistance Program on AddThis.com... Plans, Implementation, & Results Weatherization Assistance Program Weatherization Services
Forecasting overview
Forecasting is required in many situations: deciding whether to build another power generation plant in the next five years requires forecasts of future demand; scheduling staff in a call centre next week requires forecasts of call volume; stocking an inventory requires forecasts of stock requirements. Forecasts can be required several years in advance (for the case of capital investments), or only a few minutes beforehand (for telecommunication routing). Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. Some things are easier to forecast than others. The time of the sunrise tomorrow morning can be forecast very precisely. On the other hand, currency exchange rates are very difficult to forecast with any accuracy. The predictability of an event or a quantity depends on how well we understand the factors that contribute to it, and how much unexplained variability is involved. Forecasting situations vary widely in their time horizons, factors determining actual outcomes, types of data patterns, and many other aspects. Forecasting methods can be very simple such as using the most recent observation as a forecast (which is called the �na�ve method�), or highly complex such as neural nets and econometric systems of simultaneous equations. The
Rob J Hyndman
The Skill of Extended-Range Extratropical Winter Dynamical Forecasts
The global T42 version of the French numerical weather prediction model has been used to produce monthly mean forecasts. A study based on 21 cases of 44-day forecasts (for winter months from 1983 to 1990) is presented. Nine forecasts in this ...
M. D�qu�; J. F. Royer
FORECASTING SOLAR RADIATION -- PRELIMINARY EVALUATION OF AN APPROACH BASED UPON THE NATIONAL, and undertake a preliminary evaluation of, a simple solar radiation forecast model using sky cover predictions experimental product from the United States National Weather Service (NWS) providing gridded forecasted
Perez, Richard R.
ECMWF Seminar on Diagnosis of Forecasting and Data Assimilation Systems, 7-10 September 2009 205 The Use of Tracers as Diagnostics for Model Development
emissions of CFCs and SF6 are often related to the `electrical power grid distributions); tropospheric #12ECMWF Seminar on Diagnosis of Forecasting and Data Assimilation Systems, 7-10 September 2009 205/sinks and incomplete observational data sets. In addition, the importance of models' transport capabilities vis
Comparing NWS PoP Forecasts to Third-Party Providers
In this paper, the authors verify probability of precipitation (PoP) forecasts provided by the National Weather Service (NWS), The Weather Channel (TWC), and CustomWeather (CW). The n-day-ahead forecasts, where n ranges from 1 to 3 for the NWS, ...
J. Eric Bickel; Eric Floehr; Seong Dae Kim
The Sydney 2000 Olympic Games Forecast Demonstration Project: Forecasting, Observing Network Infrastructure, and Data Processing Issues
The Sydney 2000 Olympic Games World Weather Research Programme Forecast Demonstration Project (WWRP FDP) aimed to demonstrate the utility and impact of modern nowcast systems. The project focused on the use of radar processing systems and ...
Peter T. May; Thomas D. Keenan; Rod Potts; James W. Wilson; Rob Webb; Andrew Treloar; Elly Spark; Sue Lawrence; Elizabeth Ebert; John Bally; Paul Joe
Verification of Surface Temperature Forecasts from the National Digital Forecast Database over the Western United States
Experimental gridded forecasts of surface temperature issued by National Weather Service offices in the western United States during the 2003/04 winter season (18 November 2003�29 February 2004) are evaluated relative to surface observations and ...
David T. Myrick; John D. Horel
Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: Weatherization Services
Services to someone by E-mail Services to someone by E-mail Share Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: Weatherization Services on Facebook Tweet about Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: Weatherization Services on Twitter Bookmark Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: Weatherization Services on Google Bookmark Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: Weatherization Services on Delicious Rank Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: Weatherization Services on Digg Find More places to share Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: Weatherization Services on AddThis.com... Plans, Implementation, & Results Weatherization Assistance Program Weatherization Services History Goals & Metrics Allocation Formula Apply for Weatherization Assistance WAP - Sustainable Energy Resources for Consumers Grants
Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: Apply for Weatherization
Apply Apply for Weatherization Assistance to someone by E-mail Share Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: Apply for Weatherization Assistance on Facebook Tweet about Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: Apply for Weatherization Assistance on Twitter Bookmark Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: Apply for Weatherization Assistance on Google Bookmark Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: Apply for Weatherization Assistance on Delicious Rank Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: Apply for Weatherization Assistance on Digg Find More places to share Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: Apply for Weatherization Assistance on AddThis.com... Plans, Implementation, & Results Weatherization Assistance Program Weatherization Services
A Chapter In Space Weather: Physics and Effects
the activity of a particular region of geospace and thus we have space weather modeling for the solar- 1 - A Chapter In Space Weather: Physics and Effects by V. Bothmer and I.A. Daglis (editors) Springer Praxis September 2005 Draft date: March 9, 2007 Forecasting Space Weather Dimitris Vassiliadis ST
Vassiliadis, Dimitrios
Comparing limited-area 3DVAR and hybrid variational-ensemble data assimilation methods for typhoon track forecasts: Sensitivity to outer loops and vortex relocation
The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model�s �hybrid� variational-ensemble data assimilation (DA) algorithm was used to initialize WRF model forecasts of three tropical cyclones (TCs). The hybrid-initialized forecasts were compared to ...
Craig S. Schwartz; Zhiquan Liu; Xiang-Yu Huang; Ying-Hwa Kuo; Chin-Tzu Fong
Impact of Targeted Winter Storm Reconnaissance Dropwindsonde Data on Midlatitude Numerical Weather Predictions
The impact of assimilating data from the 2011 Winter Storm Reconnaissance (WSR) program on numerical weather forecasts was assessed. Parallel sets of analyses and deterministic 120-h numerical forecasts were generated using the ECMWF four-...
Thomas M. Hamill; Fanglin Yang; Carla Cardinali; Sharanya J. Majumdar
The Value of a Variable Resolution Approach to Numerical Weather Prediction
It is shown that a numerical weather prediction system with variable resolution, higher in the early forecast range and lower afterward, provides more skilful forecasts than a system with constant resolution. Results indicate that the advantage ...
Diagnosis and Correction of Systematic Humidity Error in a Global Numerical Weather Prediction Model
Accuracy of humidity forecasts has been considered relatively unimportant to much of the operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) community. However, the U.S. Air Force is interested in accurate water vapor and cloud forecasts as end ...
Donald C. Norquist; Sam S. Chang
Development, implementation, and skill assessment of the NOAA/NOS Great Lakes Operational Forecast System
Development, implementation, and skill assessment of the NOAA/NOS Great Lakes Operational Forecast Lakes Operational Forecast System (GLOFS) uses near-real-time atmospheric observa- tions and numerical weather prediction forecast guidance to produce three-dimensional forecasts of water temperature
Maintaining the Role of Humans in the Forecast Process: Analyzing the Psyche of Expert Forecasters
The Second Forum on the Future Role of the Human in the Forecast Process occurred on 2�3 August 2005 at the American Meteorological Society's Weather Analysis and Forecasting Conference in Washington, D.C. The forum consisted of three sessions. ...
Neil A. Stuart; David M. Schultz; Gary Klein
Utilities weather the storm
Utilities must restore power to storm-damaged transmission and distribution systems, even if it means going out in ice storms or during lightning and hurricane conditions. Weather forecasting helps utilities plan for possible damage as well as alerting them to long-term trends. Storm planning includes having trained repair personnel available and adjusting the system so that less power imports are needed. Storm damage response requires teamwork and cooperation between utilities. Utilities can strengthen equipment in storm-prone or vulnerable areas, but good data are necessary to document the incidence of lighning strikes, hurricanes, etc. 2 references, 8 figures.
Lihach, N.
Eta Model Precipitation Forecasts for a Period Including Tropical Storm Allison
A step-mountain (eta) coordinate limited-area model is being developed at the National Meteorological Center (NMC) to improve forecasts of severe weather and other mesoscale phenomena. Precipitation forecasts are reviewed for the 20-day period 16 ...
Fedor Mesinger; Thomas L. Black; David W. Plummer; John H. Ward
A WRF Ensemble for Improved Wind Speed Forecasts at Turbine Height
The Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) with 10-km horizontal grid spacing was used to explore improvements in wind speed forecasts at a typical wind turbine hub height (80 m). An ensemble consisting of WRF model simulations with ...
Adam J. Deppe; William A. Gallus Jr.; Eugene S. Takle
A History of Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Skill
The tropical cyclone (TC) track forecasting skill of operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) models and their consensus is examined for the western North Pacific from 1992 to 2002. The TC track forecasting skill of the operational NWP ...
James S. Goerss; Charles R. Sampson; James M. Gross
A Method for Eliciting, Preserving, and Sharing the Knowledge of Forecasters
As in many domains of modern work, a concern in weather forecasting is the loss of expertise, due either to reassignment or retirement. This note reports upon a project that demonstrates a procedure that can be used to capture forecasters' ...
Robert R. Hoffman; John W. Coffey; Kenneth M. Ford; Joseph D. Novak
Comments on �An Operational Ingredients-Based Methodology for Forecasting Midlatitude Winter Season Precipitation�
Wetzel and Martin present an ingredients-based methodology for forecasting winter season precipitation. Although they are to be commended for offering a framework for winter-weather forecasting, disagreements arise with some of their specific ...
David M. Schultz; John V. Cortinas Jr.; Charles A. Doswell III
Improving Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts in the Warm Season: A USWRP Research and Development Strategy
Warm-season quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) are the poorest performance area of forecast systems worldwide. They stubbornly fall further behind while other aspects of weather prediction steadily improve. Unless a major effort is ...
J. Michael Fritsch; R. E. Carbone
Nonlinear Characteristics of Ensemble Perturbation Evolution and their Application to Forecasting High-impact Events
Ensemble forecasting is becoming an increasingly important aspect of numerical weather prediction. As ensemble perturbation evolution becomes more nonlinear as a forecast evolves, the ensemble mean can diverge from the model attractor on which ...
Brian C. Ancell
Comparative Verification of Guidance and Local Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts: Calibration Analyses
A comparative verification is reported of 2631 matched pairs of quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) prepared daily from 1 October 1992 to 31 October 1996 by the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC) and the Weather Service Forecast ...
Understanding Farmers� Forecast Use from Their Beliefs, Values, Social Norms, and Perceived Obstacles
Although the accuracy of weather and climate forecasts is continuously improving and new information retrieved from climate data is adding to the understanding of climate variation, use of the forecasts and climate information by farmers in ...
Qi Hu; Lisa M. Pytlik Zillig; Gary D. Lynne; Alan J. Tomkins; William J. Waltman; Michael J. Hayes; Kenneth G. Hubbard; Ikrom Artikov; Stacey J. Hoffman; Donald A. Wilhite
High-Resolution GFS-Based MOS Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts on a 4-km Grid
The Meteorological Development Laboratory (MDL) of the National Weather Service (NWS) has developed high-resolution Global Forecast System (GFS)-based model output statistics (MOS) 6- and 12-h quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) guidance on ...
The Role of Latent Heat Release in Explosive Cyclogenesis: Three Examples Based on ECMWF Operational Forecasts
Operational forecasts from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts of three cases of explosive cyclogenesis of large magnitude that occurred in the North Atlantic during a 1-week period in January 1986 are presented, and results of ...
Richard J. Reed; Mark D. Albright; Adrian J. Sammons; Per Und�n
On the Impact of WRF Model Vertical Grid Resolution on Midwest Summer Rainfall Forecasts
Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model exploratory sensitivity simulations were performed to determine the impact of vertical grid resolution (VGR) on the forecast skill of Midwest summer rainfall. Varying the VGR indicated that a refined VGR, ...
Eric A. Aligo; William A. Gallus Jr.; Moti Segal
Recently, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) produced a reforecast dataset for a 2005 version of their ensemble forecast system. The dataset consisted of 15-member reforecasts conducted for the 20-yr period 1982�2001, ...
Renate Hagedorn; Thomas M. Hamill; Jeffrey S. Whitaker
Forecasts for the Community by Students at the University of Lowell
Students in the meteorology program at the University of Lowell provide weather forecasts for the university community and for the residents of the Lowell area. The forecasting service is organized and run entirely by the students through the ...
Keith L. Seitter; Frank P. Colby Jr.
Use of a Real-Time Computer Graphics System in Analysis and Forecasting
Real-time computer graphics systems are being introduced into weather stations throughout the United States. A sample of student forecasters used such a system to solve specific specialized forecasting problems. Results suggest that for some ...
John J. Cahir; John M. Norman; Dale A. Lowry
Using the WRF Model in an Operational Streamflow Forecast System for the Jordan River
The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was employed to provide precipitation forecasts during the 2008/09 and 2009/10 winters (wet season) for Israel and the surrounding region where complex terrain dominates. The WRF precipitation ...
Amir Givati; Barry Lynn; Yubao Liu; Alon Rimmer
An Integrated Approach to Mid- and Upper-Level Turbulence Forecasting
An automated procedure for forecasting mid- and upper-level turbulence that affects aircraft is described. This procedure, termed the Graphical Turbulence Guidance system, uses output from numerical weather prediction model forecasts to derive ...
R. Sharman; C. Tebaldi; G. Wiener; J. Wolff
Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts Based on Reforecast Analogs: Theory and Application
A general theory is proposed for the statistical correction of weather forecasts based on observed analogs. An estimate is sought for the probability density function (pdf) of the observed state, given today�s numerical forecast. Assume that an ...
Thomas M. Hamill; Jeffrey S. Whitaker
Weather Superstitions
of Cook County George W. Dunne, President Roland F. Eisenbeis, Supt. of Conservation WEATHER SUPERSTITIONS Charles Dudley Warner, not Mark Twain, made the famous wisecrack --...
NEXRAD and the Broadcast Weather Industry: Preparing to Share the Technology
This paper describes results from a survey designed to establish the current level of radar and computer technology of the television weather industry, and to assess the awareness and attitudes of television weather forecasters toward the Next ...
Michele M. Robertson; Kelvin K. Droegemeier
Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: National Weatherization
Information Resources Information Resources Site Map Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: National Weatherization Training Portal to someone by E-mail Share Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: National Weatherization Training Portal on Facebook Tweet about Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: National Weatherization Training Portal on Twitter Bookmark Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: National Weatherization Training Portal on Google Bookmark Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: National Weatherization Training Portal on Delicious Rank Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: National Weatherization Training Portal on Digg Find More places to share Weatherization and Intergovernmental
Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: Weatherization Innovation
Innovation Pilot Program to someone by E-mail Innovation Pilot Program to someone by E-mail Share Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: Weatherization Innovation Pilot Program on Facebook Tweet about Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: Weatherization Innovation Pilot Program on Twitter Bookmark Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: Weatherization Innovation Pilot Program on Google Bookmark Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: Weatherization Innovation Pilot Program on Delicious Rank Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: Weatherization Innovation Pilot Program on Digg Find More places to share Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: Weatherization Innovation Pilot Program on AddThis.com... Plans, Implementation, & Results Weatherization Assistance Program
Weatherization Assistance Program Allocation Formula to someone by E-mail Share Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: Weatherization Assistance Program Allocation Formula on Facebook Tweet about Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: Weatherization Assistance Program Allocation Formula on Twitter Bookmark Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: Weatherization Assistance Program Allocation Formula on Google Bookmark Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: Weatherization Assistance Program Allocation Formula on Delicious Rank Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: Weatherization Assistance Program Allocation Formula on Digg Find More places to share Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: Weatherization Assistance Program Allocation Formula on
The Performance of a Medium-Range Forecast Model in Winter�Impact of Physical Parameterizations
We present the results of a series of forecasts on seven weather situations from February 1976 using two models which differ only in their physical parameterizations.
A. Hollingsworth; K. Arpe; M. Tiedtke; M. Capaldo; H. Savij�rvi
Scientific Verification of Deterministic River Stage Forecasts
One element of a complete verification system is the ability to determine why forecasts behave as they do. This paper describes and demonstrates an operationally feasible method for conducting this type of diagnostic verification analysis. ...
Edwin Welles; Soroosh Sorooshian
3D Convective Storm Identification, Tracking, and Forecasting�An Enhanced TITAN Algorithm
Storm identification, tracking, and forecasting make up an essential part of weather radar and severe weather surveillance operations. Existing nowcasting algorithms using radar data can be generally classified into two categories: centroid and ...
Lei Han; Shengxue Fu; Lifeng Zhao; Yongguang Zheng; Hongqing Wang; Yinjing Lin
METRo: A New Model for Road-Condition Forecasting in Canada
A numerical model to forecast road conditions, Model of the Environment and Temperature of Roads (METRo), has been developed to run at Canadian weather centers. METRo uses roadside observations from road weather information systems stations as ...
Louis-Philippe Crevier; Yves Delage
On the Economic Value of Probability of Precipitation Forecasts in Canada
Canadian weather offices have recently begun to receive probability of precipitation information estimated from numerical weather prediction guidance, but this information is not given in the public forecast. This paper uses a well-known ...
Ambury Stuart
Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site
see their annual energy bills reduced by an average of about 437, depending on fuel prices. Because the energy improvements that make up weatherization services are long...
Comparison of Model Forecast Skill of Sea-Level Pressure Along the East and West Coasts of the United States
1 Comparison of Model Forecast Skill of Sea-Level Pressure Along the East and West Coasts, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington Submitted to: Weather and Forecasting May 2008 Revised recent advances in numerical weather prediction, major errors in short-range forecasts still occur
Mass, Clifford F.
Vol. 43, No. 2 August 1999 Mariners Weather Log
of funds for printing this periodical has been approved by the director of the Office of Management Weather Service, Office of Meteorology, Integrated Hydrometeorological Services Core, Silver Spring ...........................................................................................................................................................53 Coastal Forecast Office News
Idealized Adaptive Observation Strategies for Improving Numerical Weather Prediction
Adaptive sampling uses information about individual atmospheric situations to identify regions where additional observations are likely to improve weather forecasts of interest. The observation network could be adapted for a wide range of ...
Rebecca E. Morss; Kerry A. Emanuel; Chris Snyder
An Explicit Cloud Physics Parameterization for Operational Numerical Weather Prediction
In anticipation of computers that will be able to run weather forecasting models on very fine grids fast enough for real-time purposes, an algorithm for representing water phase change and precipitation processes was developed. The design ...
Paul Schultz
Mesoscale Weather Effects of Variable Snow Cover over Northeast Colorado
Data from the PROFS (Program for Regional Observing and Forecasting Services) surface mesonetwork have been used to document the effect of variable snow cover on atmospheric boundary layer properties cloudiness and weather conditions over north ...
Richard H. Johnson; George S. Young; James J. Toth; Raymond M. Zehr
Edward Epstein's Stochastic-Dynamic Approach to Ensemble Weather Prediction
In the late-1960s, well before the availability of computer power to produce ensemble weather forecasts, Edward Epstein (1931 � 2008) developed a stochastic � dynamic prediction (SDP) method for calculating the temporal evolution of mean value, variance ...
John M. Lewis
Operational Weather Radar in the United States: Progress and Opportunity
The NEXRAD operational system consisting of a network of WSR�88D radars is now operational within the 50 states, as well as Puerto Rico and Guam. This technology has been enthusiastically received by weather forecasters in all regions and ...
Robert J. Serafin; James W. Wilson
Modernization in the National Weather Service River and Flood Program
Hydrologic forecasting is vital not only to the National Weather Service mission of saying lives and protecting property but also to our nation's water management decision makers. Since its inception, the River and Flood Program has continually ...
D.L. Fread; R.C. Shedd; G.F. Smith; R. Farnsworth; C.N. Hoffeditz; L.A. Wenzel; S.M. Wiele; J.A. Smith; G.N. Day
A Real-Time Weather System for Forestry
The Forestry Weather Interpretations System (FWIS) has been pilot-tested in 12 southern states from Virginia to Texas for two years. Hourly surface observational data from airport locations, upper-air soundings, and Georgia forecast data, entered ...
James T. Paul
Object-Based Evaluation of a Storm-Scale Ensemble during the 2009 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Experiment
Object-based verification of deterministic forecasts from a convection-allowing ensemble for the 2009 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Experiment is conducted. The average of object attributes is compared between forecasts and observations ...
Aaron Johnson; Xuguang Wang
Diagnostic Study of Explosive Cyclogenesis during FGGE
Two rapidly developing extratropical maritime cyclones are studied using the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) level III-b analyses from the First GARP Global Experiment (FGGE). The first cyclone forms over the western ...
Carlyle H. Wash; James E. Peak; Wynn E. Calland; William A. Cook
The Early History of Probability Forecasts: Some Extensions and Clarifications
Heretofore it has been widely accepted that the contributions of W. E. Cooke in 1906 represented the first works related to the explicit treatment of uncertainty in weather forecasts. Recently, however, it has come to light that at least some ...
Does Increased Horizontal Resolution Improve Hurricane Wind Forecasts?
The representation of tropical cyclone track, intensity, and structure in a set of 69 parallel forecasts performed at each of two horizontal grid increments with the Advanced Research Hurricane (AHW) component of the Weather and Research and ...
Christopher Davis; Wei Wang; Jimy Dudhia; Ryan Torn
Forecasting for a Remote Island: A Class Exercise
Students enrolled in a satellite meteorology course at North Carolina State University, Raleigh, recently had an unusual opportunity to apply their forecast skills to predict wind and weather conditions for a remote site in the Southern ...
Allen J. Riordan
Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecast for Flood Prediction: An Application
This paper outlines a methodology to produce probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts by means of a dedicated uncertainty processor for weather model output. The uncertainty processor is developed as a component of a Bayesian ...
P. Reggiani; A. H. Weerts
STORMTIPE-95: Results from a Convective Storm Forecast Experiment
During the spring of 1995, an operational forecast experiment using a three-dimensional cloud model was carried out for the north Texas region. Gridpoint soundings were obtained from the daily operational numerical weather prediction models run ...
Louis J. Wicker; Michael P. Kay; Michael P. Foster
Dynamical Extended Range Forecasting (DERF) at the National Meteorological Center
Early results are presented of an experimental program in Dynamical Extended Range Forecasting at the National Meteorological Center. The primary objective of this program is to assess the feasibility of extending operational numerical weather ...
M. Steven Tracton; Kingtse Mo; Wilbur Chen; Eugenia Kalnay; Robert Kistler; Glenn White
The WGNE Assessment of Short-term Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts
Twenty-four-hour and 48-h quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) from 11 operational numerical weather prediction models have been verified for a 4-yr period against rain gauge observations over the United States, Germany, and Australia to ...
Elizabeth E. Ebert; Ulrich Damrath; Werner Wergen; Michael E. Baldwin
Short-Term Single-Station Forecasting of Precipitation
Forecast probabilities of rain were calculated up to 12 hours in advance using a Markov chain model applied to three-hourly observations from five major Australian cities. The four weather states chosen in this first study were three cloudiness ...
A. J. Miller; L. M. Leslie
Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting Using Bayesian Model Averaging
Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is a statistical way of postprocessing forecast ensembles to create predictive probability density functions (PDFs) for weather quantities. It represents the predictive PDF as a weighted average of PDFs centered on ...
J. Mc Lean Sloughter; Adrian E. Raftery; Tilmann Gneiting; Chris Fraley
Using Bayesian Model Averaging to Calibrate Forecast Ensembles
Ensembles used for probabilistic weather forecasting often exhibit a spread-error correlation, but they tend to be underdispersive. This paper proposes a statistical method for postprocessing ensembles based on Bayesian model averaging (BMA), ...
Adrian E. Raftery; Tilmann Gneiting; Fadoua Balabdaoui; Michael Polakowski
A Forecasting/Nowcasting System for Remote Field Locations
Vast quantities of frequently updated weather data for both forecasting and nowcasting are generally required in meteorological field programs. The continuing synthesis of this data to suit specific operations is best accomplished using ...
Harry T. Ochs III; Stanley Q. Kidder
PROBCAST: A Web-Based Portal to Mesoscale Probabilistic Forecasts
This paper describes the University of Washington Probability Forecast (PROBCAST), a Web-based portal to probabilistic weather predictions over the Pacific Northwest. PROBCAST products are derived from the output of a mesoscale ensemble system ...
Clifford Mass; Jeff Baars; Susan Joslyn; John Pyle; Patrick Tewson; David Jones; Tilmann Gneiting; Adrian Raftery; J. M. Sloughter; Chris Fraley
Value of Real-Time Vegetation Fraction to Forecasts of Severe Convection in High-Resolution Models
Near-real-time values of vegetation fraction are incorporated into a 2-km nested version of the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (ARW) model and compared to forecasts from a control run that uses climatological values of ...
Kenneth A. James; David J. Stensrud; Nusrat Yussouf
Multiple-Radar Data Assimilation and Short-Range Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting of a Squall Line Observed during IHOP_2002
The impact of multiple�Doppler radar data assimilation on quantitative precipitation forecasting (QPF) is examined in this study. The newly developed Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model Advanced Research WRF (ARW) and its three-...
Qingnong Xiao; Juanzhen Sun
An Evaluation of Precipitation Forecasts from Operational Models and Reanalyses Including Precipitation Variations Associated with MJO Activity
In this paper, the results of an examination of precipitation forecasts for 1�30-day leads from global models run at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) ...
John E. Janowiak; Peter Bauer; Wanqiu Wang; Phillip A. Arkin; Jon Gottschalck
Comparison of Model Forecast Skill of Sea Level Pressure along the East and West Coasts of the United States
Despite recent advances in numerical weather prediction, major errors in short-range forecasts still occur. To gain insight into the origin and nature of model forecast errors, error frequencies and magnitudes need to be documented for different ...
Garrett B. Wedam; Lynn A. McMurdie; Clifford F. Mass
Probability Forecasting in Sweden: Some Results of Experimental and Operational Programs at the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute
This paper describes new operational and experimental forecasting programs at the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) designed to provide users with more detailed and more useful weather forecasts. User groups currently ...
Karl-Ivar Ivarsson; Rune Joelsson; Erik Liljas; Allan H. Murphy
Response of model simulated weather parameters to round-off-errors on different systems
In this study, the weather forecasting model of the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) is used for examining the characteristics of round-off-errors on three different computer architectures - PARAM 10K, SUNFIRE 6800 and Dec ... Keywords: Floating-point arithmetic, General Circulation Model (GCM), Iterative process, Model simulation, Round-off-errors, Spectral method
S. Goel; S. K. Dash
Using a Fuzzy-Petri-Net-Based Approach for the Offshore Weather Prediction
For the huge amounts of data related to the atmospheric elements, the difficulty of weather forecasting is very large, which require an intelligent environment. To solve the problem, a fuzzy Petri net (FPN) model to represent knowledge and the behavior ... Keywords: fuzzy Petri net, weather forecasting, intelligent database, problematic behavior
Yan Chenghua; Chen Qixiang
American Solar Energy Society Proc. ASES Annual Conference, Raleigh, NC, EVALUATION OF NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION
OF NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION SOLAR IRRADIANCE FORECASTS IN THE US Richard Perez ASRC, Albany, NY, Perez to solar radiation forecasting include (1) numerical weather prediction (NWP) models that infer local cloud© American Solar Energy Society Proc. ASES Annual Conference, Raleigh, NC, EVALUATION
NFI Forecasts Methodology NFI Forecasts Methodology
NFI Forecasts Methodology NFI Forecasts Methodology Overview Issued by: National Forest email@example.com Website: www.forestry.gov.uk/inventory 1 NFI Softwood Forecasts Methodology Overview #12;NFI Forecasts ........................................................................................................4 Rationale behind the new approach to the GB Private sector production forecast ........4 Volume
Forecast Technical Document Restocking in the Forecast
Forecast Technical Document Restocking in the Forecast A document describing how restocking of felled areas is handled in the 2011 Production Forecast. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley in the forecast Background During the period of a production forecast it is assumed that, as forest sub
> BUREAU HOME > AUSTRALIA > QUEENSLAND > FORECASTS BRISBANE FORECAST IMPROVEMENTS The Bureau of Meteorology is progressively upgrading its forecast system to provide more detailed forecasts across Australia. From October 2013 new and improved 7 day forecasts will be introduced for Brisbane, Gold Coast
A PGAS Implementation by Co-design of the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System (IFS)
Today the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) runs a 16 km global T1279 operational weather forecast model using 1,536 cores of an IBM Power7. Following the historical evolution in resolution upgrades, ECMWF could expect to be ... Keywords: PGAS, COARRAYS, FORTRAN2008, CRESTA,
George Mozdzynski, Mats Hamrud, Nils Wedi, Jens Doleschal, Harvey Richardson
Object-Based Evaluation of the Impact of Horizontal Grid Spacing on Convection-Allowing Forecasts
Forecasts generated by the Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms with 1- and 4-km grid spacing using the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting Model (ARW-WRF; ARW1 and ARW4, respectively) for the 2009�11 NOAA Hazardous Weather ...
Aaron Johnson; Xuguang Wang; Fanyou Kong; Ming Xue
Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site
Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions July 20, 2011 - 6:30pm Addthis Stan Calvert Wind Systems Integration Team Lead, Wind & Water Power Program What does this project do? It will increase the accuracy of weather forecast models for predicting substantial changes in winds at heights important for wind energy up to six hours in advance, allowing grid operators to predict expected wind power production. Accurate weather forecasts are critical for making energy sources -- including wind and solar -- dependable and predictable. These forecasts also play an important role in reducing the cost of renewable energy by allowing electricity grid operators to make timely decisions on what reserve generation they need to operate their systems.
Another Approach to Forecasting Forecast Skill
The skill of a medium-range numerical forecast can fluctuate widely from day to day. Providing an a priori estimate of the skill of the forecast is therefore important. Existing approaches include Monte Carlo Forecasting and Lagged Average ...
W. Y. Chen
Forecasts of Monthly 700 mb Height: Verification and Specification Experiments
Twenty-five years (1958-82) of monthly 700 ml, geopotential forecasts produced by the U.S. National Weather Service are verified and then used in a series of temperature specification experiments. The forecasts show skill with respect to ...
John E. Walsh
Long-Lead Seasonal Forecasts�Where Do We Stand?
The National Weather Service intends to begin routinely issuing long-lead forecasts of 3-month mean U.S. temperature and precipitation by the beginning of 1995. The ability to produce useful forecasts for certain seasons and regions at projection ...
Anthony G. Barnston; Huug M. van den Dool; David R. Rodenhuis; Chester R. Ropelewski; Vernon E. Kousky; Edward A. O'Lenic; Robert E. Livezey; Stephen E. Zebiak; Mark A. Cane; Tim P. Barnett; Nicholas E. Graham; Ming Ji; Ants Leetmaa
Improved Model Output Statistics Forecasts through Model Consensus
Consensus forecasts are computed by averaging model output statistics (MOS) forecasts based on the limited-area fine-mesh (LFM) model and the nested grid model (NGM) for the three-year period 1990�92. The test consists of four weather elements (...
Robert L. Vislocky; J. Michael Fritsch
QuikSCAT Impacts on Coastal Forecasts and Warnings: Operational Utility of Satellite Ocean Surface Vector Wind Data
This study reports on the operational utility of ocean surface vector wind (SVW) data from Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT) observations in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Forecast ...
Ralph F. Milliff; Peter A. Stamus
Probabilistic Forecast Calibration Using ECMWF and GFS Ensemble Reforecasts. Part II: Precipitation
Probabilistic Forecast Calibration Using ECMWF and GFS Ensemble Reforecasts. Part II: Precipitation for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, United Kingdom JEFFREY S. WHITAKER NOAA/Earth System Research As a companion to Part I, which discussed the calibration of probabilistic 2-m temperature forecasts using large
Concepts of medium-range (13 days) geomagnetic forecasting Hans Gleisner *, Jurgen Watermann
Concepts of medium-range (13 days) geomagnetic forecasting Hans Gleisner *, Ju¨rgen Watermann to geomagnetic forecasting. In this report from an ongoing study within the ESA Space Weather Appli- cations of geomagnetic activity forecasts hours to days ahead. Observations of eruptive events on the Sun are nowadays
Gleisner, Hans
Radiation fog forecasting using a 1-dimensional model
The importance of fog forecasting to the aviation community, to road transportation and to the public at large is irrefutable. The deadliest aviation accident in history was in fact partly a result of fog back on 27 March 1977. This has, along with numerous less dramatic examples, helped focus many meteorological efforts into trying to forecast this phenomenon as accurately as possible. Until recently, methods of fog forecasting have relied primarily on the forecaster's ability to recognize surface weather patterns known to be favorable for producing fog and once it has formed, to state that it will persist unless the pattern changes. Unfortunately, while such methods have shown some success, many times they have led weather forecasters astray with regards to the onset and dissipation of the phenomenon. Fortunately, now with computers becoming ever-increasingly powerful, numerical models have been utilized to attempt to more accurately deal with the fog forecasting problem. This study uses a 1 dimensional model called COBEL to simulate several past fog cases in the hopes of mimicking its actual occurrence and determining what weather parameters the fog is most sensitive to. The goal is to create a technique where the weather forecaster will be able to run several fog forecasts with the model each time with different initial conditions representing the uncertain weather conditions. In this way, the forecaster will be able to use his expertise to choose the most likely scenario. Results indicate that COBEL is able to simulate the fog cases quite well. Issues remain with the model's handling of the gravitational settling rate, the fact that it currently does not include any vegetation, and its coupling process with the soil model. Nevertheless, simulations and sensitivity tests indicate that soil temperature, soil moisture, low-level winds, initial relative humidity, dew deposition and surface emissivity are the weather parameters that affect fog the most. These parameters will be prime candidates for the 1 dimensional ensemble (ODEP) technique described above.
Peyraud, Lionel
An Assessment of Thunderstorm Probability Forecasting Skill
An analysis of the 11-year (1983�1993) skill of subjective 24-h thunderstorm probability forecasts made by staff and students at the State University of New York at Albany is presented. Skill is measured relative to the long-term National Weather ...
Lance F. Bosart; Michael G. Landin
Weather Extremes
Extremes Extremes Nature Bulletin No. 45 December 15, 1945 Forest Preserve District of Cook County Clayton F. Smith, President Roberts Mann, Superintendent of Conservation WEATHER EXTREMES Chicago lies in a temperate zone. We are fortunate. The lowest temperature recorded here since the establishment of the Weather Bureau in 1870 was -- 23 F on Dec. 24, 1872. The lowest records elsewhere in the United States are--66 F at Riverside Ranger Station, Yellowstone Park, Wyoming, on Feb. 9, 1933; and -- 78 F at Fort Yukon, Alaska, on Jan. 14, 1934. The lowest record anywhere on earth is 90 F at Verkhoyansk, Siberia, Feb. 5 and 7, 1892. The greatest snowfall recorded in Chicago in one 24-hour period was 14.9 inches on Jan. 30, 1939; but 19.2 inches fell between 1:10 a.m. on March 24 and 8:33 p.m. on March 26, 1930.
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ELECTRICITY DEMAND FORECAST COMPARISON REPORT STAFFREPORT June 2005 ..............................................................................3 Residential Forecast Comparison ..............................................................................................5 Nonresidential Forecast Comparisons
The Forecast Gap: Linking Forwards and Forecasts
This report addresses a common problem in price forecasting: What to do when confronted with a persistent gap between results obtained from a structural forecast model and actual forward or spot prices? The report examines examples taken from natural gas and electric power forecasts and presents a novel approach to closing this �forecast gap.� Inspection reveals that the ratio of actual prices to forecast prices often exhibits stochastic movements that resemble those of commodity price movements. By usin...
Forecast Prices
Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)
Notes: Notes: Prices have already recovered from the spike, but are expected to remain elevated over year-ago levels because of the higher crude oil prices. There is a lot of uncertainty in the market as to where crude oil prices will be next winter, but our current forecast has them declining about $2.50 per barrel (6 cents per gallon) from today's levels by next October. U.S. average residential heating oil prices peaked at almost $1.50 as a result of the problems in the Northeast this past winter. The current forecast has them peaking at $1.08 next winter, but we will be revisiting the outlook in more detail next fall and presenting our findings at the annual Winter Fuels Conference. Similarly, diesel prices are also expected to fall. The current outlook projects retail diesel prices dropping about 14 cents per gallon
Building Energy Software Tools Directory : Weather Tool
Weather Tool Back to Tool Screenshot for Weather Tool. Screenshot for Weather Tool. Screenshot for Weather...
Impact of Assimilating AMSU-A Radiances on Forecasts of 2008 Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Initialized with a Limited-Area Ensemble Kalman Filter
The impact of assimilating radiance observations from the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A (AMSU-A) on forecasts of several tropical cyclones (TCs) was studied using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) and a limited-area ensemble ...
Zhiquan Liu; Craig S. Schwartz; Chris Snyder; So-Young Ha
An Interactive Method for Estimating Maximum Hailstone Size from Forecast Soundings
A diagnostic/prognostic sounding analysis package is presented to aid operational forecasters. First, a diagnostic sounding analysis is shown which computes standard thermodynamic parameters while including a scheme to estimate the maximum hail ...
James T. Moore; John P. Pino
Cumulative Results of Extended Forecast Experiment. III: Precipitation
A diagnostic analysis and an appraisal of the precipitation calculation by the GFDL (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory) 1967 version prediction model are presented, using two-week forecasts of 12 January and 12 July cases. The geographical ...
K. Miyakoda; R. F. Strickler
Forecasting Tornado Pathlengths Using a Three-Dimensional Object Identification Algorithm Applied to Convection-Allowing Forecasts
A three-dimensional (in space and time) object identification algorithm is applied to high-resolution forecasts of hourly maximum updraft helicity (UH)�a diagnostic that identifies simulated rotating storms�with the goal of diagnosing the ...
Adam J. Clark; John S. Kain; Patrick T. Marsh; James Correia Jr.; Ming Xue; Fanyou Kong
Using Bayesian Model Averaging to Calibrate Forecast Ensembles ADRIAN E. RAFTERY, TILMANN GNEITING, FADOUA BALABDAOUI, AND MICHAEL POLAKOWSKI
Using Bayesian Model Averaging to Calibrate Forecast Ensembles ADRIAN E. RAFTERY, TILMANN GNEITING for probabilistic weather forecasting often exhibit a spread-error correlation, but they tend to be underdispersive centered on the individual bias-corrected forecasts, where the weights are equal to posterior probabilities
Raftery, Adrian
A Comparison of Precipitation Forecast Skill between Small Convection-Allowing and Large Convection-Parameterizing Ensembles
A Comparison of Precipitation Forecast Skill between Small Convection- Allowing and Large Submitted to Weather and Forecasting in October 2008, Accepted in January 2009 * Corresponding author precipitation forecasts from a 5-member, 4-km grid-spacing (ENS4) and a 15-member, 20-km grid-spacing (ENS20
Droegemeier, Kelvin K.
Wavelet-based multi-resolution analysis and artificial neural networks for forecasting temperature and thermal power consumption
a novel technique for electric load forecasting based on neural weather compensation. They proposed in the context of short or long-term load forecasting and power utilities management. The complex and nonlinear-term load forecasting. They concluded that the just-mentioned tools can be good candidates
Paris-Sud XI, Université de
Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint
Forecasting solar energy generation is a challenging task due to the variety of solar power systems and weather regimes encountered. Forecast inaccuracies can result in substantial economic losses and power system reliability issues. This paper presents a suite of generally applicable and value-based metrics for solar forecasting for a comprehensive set of scenarios (i.e., different time horizons, geographic locations, applications, etc.). In addition, a comprehensive framework is developed to analyze the sensitivity of the proposed metrics to three types of solar forecasting improvements using a design of experiments methodology, in conjunction with response surface and sensitivity analysis methods. The results show that the developed metrics can efficiently evaluate the quality of solar forecasts, and assess the economic and reliability impact of improved solar forecasting.
Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H. F.; Banunarayanan, V.
Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast Introduction..................................................................................................................................... 1
Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast Introduction................................................................................................................................. 3 Price Forecasts............................................................................................................................... 12 Oil Price Forecast Range
Minding the Weather
Weather salience is a construct that pertains to the psychological value, significance, and attunement that people have for the weather and its changes. In this article the author describes the construct of weather salience and a measure that was ...
Alan E. Stewart
Diagnostic Comparison of Meteorological Analyses during the 2002 Antarctic Winter
Several meteorological datasets, including U.K. Met Office (MetO), European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), and NASA�s Goddard Earth Observation System (GEOS-4) analyses, ...
Gloria L. Manney; Douglas R. Allen; Kirstin Kr�ger; Barbara Naujokat; Michelle L. Santee; Joseph L. Sabutis; Steven Pawson; Richard Swinbank; Cora E. Randall; Adrian J. Simmons; Craig Long
A Diagnostic Study of Baroclinic Disturbances in Polar Air Streams
Quasi-Lagmngian budgets of mass, vorticity and heat are calculated following disturbances that form within polar air streams. Observed cases are extracted from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts analyses during the First GARP ...
Mark R. Sinclair; Russell L. Elsberry
Diagnostic Verification of the Climate Prediction Center Long-Lead Outlooks, 1995�98
The performance of the Climate Prediction Center�s long-lead forecasts for the period 1995�98 is assessed through a diagnostic verification, which involves examination of the full joint frequency distributions of the forecasts and the ...
NEWTON's Weather Links
References Do you have a great weather reference link? Please click our Ideas page. Featured Reference Links: NOAA Teachers Support Page NOAA Teachers Support Page for Weather and...
Regression modeling method of space weather prediction
A regression modeling method of space weather prediction is proposed. It allows forecasting Dst index up to 6 hours ahead with about 90% correlation. It can also be used for constructing phenomenological models of interaction between the solar wind and the magnetosphere. With its help two new geoeffective parameters were found: latitudinal and longitudinal flow angles of the solar wind. It was shown that Dst index remembers its previous values for 2000 hours.
Parnowski, Aleksei
Ensemble Data Assimilation to Characterize Surface-Layer Errors in Numerical Weather Prediction Models
Experiments with the single-column implementation of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model provide a basis for deducing land�atmosphere coupling errors in the model. Coupling occurs both through heat and moisture fluxes through the land�...
J. P. Hacker; W. M. Angevine
Identification of Aviation Weather Hazards Based on the Integration of Radar and Lightning Data
The National Weather Service Eastern Region is carrying out a national risk-reduction exercise at the Baltimore-Washington Forecast Office in Sterling, Virginia. The primary objective of this project is to integrate information from remote sensor ...
Andrew D. Stern; Raymond H. Brady III; Patrick D. Moore; Gary M. Carter
Examination of a Real-Time 3DVAR Analysis System in the Hazardous Weather Testbed
Forecasters and research meteorologists tested a real-time three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3DVAR) system in the Hazardous Weather Testbed during the springs of 2010-2012 to determine its capabilities to assist in the warning ...
Travis M. Smith; Jidong Gao; Kristin M. Calhoun; David J. Stensrud; Kevin L. Manross; Kiel L. Ortega; Chenghao Fu; Darrel M. Kingfield; Kimberly L. Elmore; Valliappa Lakshmanan; Christopher Riedel
The Quantitative Use of PIREPs in Developing Aviation Weather Guidance Products
An evaluation of the utility of pilot reports (PIREPs) of weather for aviation forecasting product development is presented. Although PIREPs were never intended for quantitative use, this limitation has not prevented developers of improved ...
Barry Schwartz
Organization of the River and Flood Program in the National Weather Service
The National Weather Service is charged by law with the responsibility of issuing forecasts and warnings of floods to the nation to help save lives and mitigate property damage. This mission falls under the authority of the River and Flood ...
E. A. Stallings; L. A. Wenzel
A Methodology for Predicting the Puget Sound Convergence Zone and Its Associated Weather
The Puget Sound Convergence Zone (PSCZ) is a terrain-induced mesoscale phenomenon that occurs in western Washington and has a dramatic impact on local weather. This paper presents the operational forecasting techniques that are used at the ...
William M. Whitney; Robert L. Doherty; Bradley R. Colman
The S2K Severe Weather Detection Algorithms and Their Performance
One of the main goals of the Sydney 2000 Forecast Demonstration Project was to demonstrate the efficacy and utility of automated severe weather detection radar algorithms. As a contribution to this goal, this paper describes the radar-based ...
Paul Joe; Don Burgess; Rod Potts; Tom Keenan; Greg Stumpf; Andrew Treloar
A Quasi-Lagrangian Regional Model Designed for Operational Weather Prediction
A regional numerical weather prediction model is designed using the quasi-Lagrangian method for operational forecasting of synoptic and mesoscale disturbances. The nonlinear advective terms and the total forcing experienced by a fluid parcel are ...
Mukut B. Mathur
Collaborative Research Activities between National Weather Service Operational Offices and Universities
The modernization of the National Weather Service (NWS) will provide new datasets along with advanced technological capabilities that will enhance our understanding of meteorological and hydrological processes. Improved local warning and forecast ...
Eugene P. Auciello; Ronald L. Lavoie
Environment Canada's Experimental Numerical Weather Prediction Systems for the Vancouver 2010 Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games
The 2010 Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games took place in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada, on 12�28 February and 12�21 March 2010, respectively. Weather forecasting presents specific challenges at the various Olympic venues, which are ...
J. Mailhot; S. B�lair; M. Charron; C. Doyle; P. Joe; M. Abrahamowicz; N. B. Bernier; B. Denis; A. Erfani; R. Frenette; A. Gigu�re; G. A. Isaac; N. McLennan; R. McTaggart-Cowan; J. Milbrandt; L. Tong
Model-Driven, Assertion-Based Generation of Multimedia Weather Information
As gridded forecasts are becoming a common source of weather data, efforts are being made to automatically produce displays for various categories of decision makers such as emergency managers and road traffic officers. This paper proposes a new ...
Stephan Kerpedjiev
The Accuracy of Solar Irradiance Calculations Used in Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction
In this paper, solar irradiance forecasts made by mesoscale numerical weather prediction models are compared with observations taken during three air-quality experiments in various parts of the United States. The authors evaluated the fifth-...
Robert J. Zamora; Ellsworth G. Dutton; Michael Trainer; Stuart A. McKeen; James M. Wilczak; Yu-Tai Hou
Significant Winter Weather Events and Associated Socioeconomic Impacts (Federal Aid Expenditures) across Oklahoma: 2000�10
Exceptionally severe winter storms that overwhelm local government result in major disaster declarations. Each National Weather Service forecast office in the United States reports winter events for a specific group of counties, known as the ...
Trevor Grout; Yang Hong; Jeffrey Basara; Balabhaskar Balasundaram; Zhenyu Kong; Satish T. S. Bukkapatnam
ARM - Measurement - Shortwave broadband total net irradiance
Systems External Instruments ECMWFDIAG : European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts Diagnostic Analyses ECMWF : European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts Model...
ARM - Measurement - Liquid water content
Instruments ETA : Eta Model Runs ECMWFDIAG : European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts Diagnostic Analyses ECMWF : European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts Model...
ARM - Measurement - Longwave broadband net irradiance
purposes. External Instruments ECMWFDIAG : European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts Diagnostic Analyses ECMWF : European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts Model...
ARM - Measurement - Cloud fraction
Forecasts, Meteorology Services, Environmental Sciences Department
Forecasts Short Term Forecast Suffolk County Northern Nassau Southern Nassau Area Forecast Discussion - OKX Area Forecast Discussion - NYS Area Forecast Discussion Mount Holly Area...
Verification of Nowcasts from the WWRP Sydney 2000 Forecast Demonstration Project
The verification phase of the World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) Sydney 2000 Forecast Demonstration Project (FDP) was intended to measure the skill of the participating nowcast algorithms in predicting the location of convection, rainfall ...
Elizabeth E. Ebert; Laurence J. Wilson; Barbara G. Brown; Pertti Nurmi; Harold E. Brooks; John Bally; Matthias Jaeneke
Model Bias in a Continuously Cycled Assimilation System and Its Influence on Convection-Permitting Forecasts
During the spring 2011 season, a real-time continuously cycled ensemble data assimilation system using the Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) coupled with the Data Assimilation Research Testbed toolkit ...
Glen S. Romine; Craig S. Schwartz; Chris Snyder; Jeff L. Anderson; Morris L. Weisman
Intercomparison of Spatial Forecast Verification Methods: Identifying Skillful Spatial Scales Using the Fractions Skill Score
The fractions skill score (FSS) was one of the measures that formed part of the Intercomparison of Spatial Forecast Verification Methods project. The FSS was used to assess a common dataset that consisted of real and perturbed Weather Research ...
Marion Mittermaier; Nigel Roberts
NOAA'S Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service: Building Pathways for Better Science in Water Forecasting
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Weather Service (NWS) Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) program was established to meet our nation's need for more precise flash-flood forecast information. AHPS uses ...
John Mcenery; John Ingram; Qingyun Duan; Thomas Adams; Lee Anderson
Ensemble Precipitation and Water-Level Forecasts for Anticipatory Water-System Control
A method is presented for testing weather forecast products for applications in anticipatory water-system control. The applicability of the ensemble prediction system (EPS) of the ECMWF is tested for flood control in a regional water system in ...
Schalk Jan van Andel; Roland K. Price; Arnold H. Lobbrecht; Frans van Kruiningen; Robert Mureau
Model Output Statistics Forecasts: Three Years of Operational Experience in the Netherlands
In the Netherlands, one to five day Model Output Statistics (MOS) forecasts have been used operationally since November 1983. The weather elements predicted are the probability of precipitation, the conditional probability of frozen precipitation,...
C. Lemcke; S. Kruizinga
Flash Flood Forecasting for Small Urban Watersheds in the Baltimore Metropolitan Region
The utility of distributed hydrologic models in combination with high-resolution Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) rainfall estimates for flash flood forecasting in urban drainage basins is examined through model simulations of 10 ...
Julie Rose N. Javier; James A. Smith; Katherine L. Meierdiercks; Mary Lynn Baeck; Andrew J. Miller
Understanding the Influence of Climate Forecasts on Farmer Decisions as Planned Behavior
Results of a set of four regression models applied to recent survey data of farmers in eastern Nebraska suggest the causes that drive farmer intentions of using weather and climate information and forecasts in farming decisions. The model results ...
Ikrom Artikov; Stacey J. Hoffman; Gary D. Lynne; Lisa M. Pytlik Zillig; Qi Hu; Alan J. Tomkins; Kenneth G. Hubbard; Michael J. Hayes; William Waltman
The influence of frequency shifts in microwave sounder channels on NWP analyses and forecasts
The sensitivity of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) analysis and forecast accuracies with respect to frequency shift in microwave passbands is quantified through a series of observing system experiments using the ECMWF integrated assimilation ...
Carole Peubey; William Bell
On the Use of Mesoscale and Cloud-Scale Models in Operational Forecasting
In the near future, the technological capability will be available to use mesoscale and cloud-scale numerical models for forecasting convective weather in operational meteorology. We address some of the issues concerning effective utilization of ...
Harold E. Brooks; Charles A. Doswell III; Robert A. Maddox
An Experiment to Measure the Value of Statistical Probability Forecasts for Airports
The economic value of weather forecasts for airports for commercial aviation is investigated by introducing financial data into the decision-making process for fuel carriage by aircraft. Using specific operating costs for a given flight, an ...
Ross Keith; Stephen M. Leyton
Representing Serial Correlation of Meteorological Events and Forecasts in Dynamic Decision�Analytic Models
A recursive solution for optimal sequences of decisions given uncertainty in future weather events, and forecasts of those events, is presented. The formulation incorporates a representation of the autocorrelation that is typically exhibited. The ...
Daniel S. Wilks
Test of a Poor Man�s Ensemble Prediction System for Short-Range Probability Forecasting
Current operational ensemble prediction systems (EPSs) are designed specifically for medium-range forecasting, but there is also considerable interest in predictability in the short range, particularly for potential severe-weather developments. A ...
A. Arribas; K. B. Robertson; K. R. Mylne
About the Reliability of Manual Model PV Corrections to Improve Forecasts
The National Weather Forecast Centre of M�t�o-France has developed a tool that corrects the state of the atmosphere within the Action de Recherche Petite Echelle Grande Echelle (ARPEGE) operational global model by adjusting the potential vorticity ...
Philippe Arbogast; Karine Maynard; Catherine Piriou
Data Mining Numerical Model Output for Single-Station Cloud-Ceiling Forecast Algorithms
Accurate cloud-ceiling-height forecasts derived from numerical weather prediction (NWP) model data are useful for aviation and other interests where low cloud ceilings have an impact on operations. A demonstration of the usefulness of data-mining ...
Richard L. Bankert; Michael Hadjimichael
H. L. Wagner's Unbiased Hit Rate and the Assessment of Categorical Forecasting Accuracy
The paper briefly reviews measures that have been proposed since the 1880s to assess accuracy and skill in categorical weather forecasting. The majority of the measures consist of a single expression, for example, a proportion, the difference ...
Timothy W. Armistead
A Fuzzy Logic�Based Analog Forecasting System for Ceiling and Visibility
WIND-3 is an application for aviation weather forecasting that uses the analog method to produce deterministic predictions of cloud ceiling height and horizontal visibility at airports. For data, it uses historical and current airport ...
Bjarne Hansen
Improvement of Long-Range Forecasting by EEOF Extrapolation Using an AR-MEM Model
This paper presents an optimum combination of two robust statistical techniques that can be used to improve the skill of long-range weather forecasts. The first method uses decomposition and analysis based on extended empirical orthogonal ...
C. Mares and Ileana Mares
The Development and Verification of TIPS: An Expert System to Forecast Thunderstorm Occurrence
A rule-based expert system has been developed to assist military weather forecasters in the prediction of thunderstorms. The knowledge base used by the Thunderstorm Intelligence Prediction System (TIPS) was built by using meteorological ...
Robert R. Lee; Jeffrey E. Passner
Climate Index Weighting Schemes for NWS ESP-Based Seasonal Volume Forecasts
This study compares methods to incorporate climate information into the National Weather Service River Forecast System (NWSRFS). Three small-to-medium river subbasins following roughly along a longitude in the Colorado River basin with different ...
Kevin Werner; David Brandon; Martyn Clark; Subhrendu Gangopadhyay
A More Extensive Investigation of the Use of Ensemble Forecasts for Dispersion Model Evaluation
An ensemble forecast is used as input to a Lagrangian particle dispersion model to study the effect that analysis errors in the numerical weather prediction assimilation cycle have on dispersion modeling. The wind and temperature fields from a ...
Anne Grete Straume
A Computational Web Portal for the Distributed Marine Environment Forecast System
This paper describes a prototype computational Web Portal for the Distributed Marine Environment Forecast System (DMEFS). DMEFS is a research framework to develop and operate validated Climate-Weather-Ocean models. The DMEFS portal is implemented as ...
Tomasz Haupt; Purushotham Bangalore; Gregory Henley
Extended-Range Probabilistic Forecasts of Ganges and Brahmaputra Floods in Bangladesh
The authors have developed a new extended-range flood forecasting system for large river basins that uses satellite data and statistically rendered probabilistic weather and climate predictions to initialize basin-scale hydrological models. The ...
Peter J. Webster; Jun Jian; Thomas M. Hopson; Carlos D. Hoyos; Paula A. Agudelo; Hai-Ru Chang; Judith A. Curry; Robert L. Grossman; Timothy N. Palmer; A. R. Subbiah
Impact of Resolution Degradation of the Initial Condition on Typhoon Track Forecasts
The operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems at the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) indicated that the typhoon track forecasts made by the control member of the ensemble prediction system (EPS) tended to be worse than those made ...
Takemasa Miyoshi; Takuya Komori; Hitoshi Yonehara; Ryota Sakai; Munenhiko Yamaguchi
Playing with the weather
In this paper the contribution of real time weather data to player enjoyment was tested and evaluated. To gauge the contribution of weather to player engagement an adaptronic, multiplayer, location based game, where real time weather data is key to the ... Keywords: adaptronic games, casual game, game, location based, multiplayer games, pervasive game, weather
Sofia Reis; Nuno Correia
Vorticity Budget for AMEX. Part I: Diagnostics
Six-hourly analyses based on the special observational dataset from the Australian Monsoon Experiment are used to derive vorticity budget diagnostics for a number of tropical weather situations. The quality of the analyses is demonstrated by ...
Noel E. Davidson
Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: History of the Weatherization
History History of the Weatherization Assistance Program to someone by E-mail Share Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: History of the Weatherization Assistance Program on Facebook Tweet about Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: History of the Weatherization Assistance Program on Twitter Bookmark Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: History of the Weatherization Assistance Program on Google Bookmark Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: History of the Weatherization Assistance Program on Delicious Rank Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: History of the Weatherization Assistance Program on Digg Find More places to share Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: History of the Weatherization Assistance Program on AddThis.com...
Extracting Unique Information from High-Resolution Forecast Models: Monitoring Selected Fields and Phenomena Every Time Step
A new strategy for generating and presenting model diagnostic fields from convection-allowing forecast models is introduced. The fields are produced by computing temporal-maximum values for selected diagnostics at each horizontal grid point ...
John S. Kain; Scott R. Dembek; Steven J. Weiss; Jonathan L. Case; Jason J. Levit; Ryan A. Sobash
Comparison of Wind Power and Load Forecasting Error Distributions: Preprint
The introduction of large amounts of variable and uncertain power sources, such as wind power, into the electricity grid presents a number of challenges for system operations. One issue involves the uncertainty associated with scheduling power that wind will supply in future timeframes. However, this is not an entirely new challenge; load is also variable and uncertain, and is strongly influenced by weather patterns. In this work we make a comparison between the day-ahead forecasting errors encountered in wind power forecasting and load forecasting. The study examines the distribution of errors from operational forecasting systems in two different Independent System Operator (ISO) regions for both wind power and load forecasts at the day-ahead timeframe. The day-ahead timescale is critical in power system operations because it serves the unit commitment function for slow-starting conventional generators.
Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Orwig, K.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.
Dynamics and Structure of Forecast Error Covariance in the Core of a Developing Hurricane
An ensemble of cloud-resolving forecasts from the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) was used to study error covariance for Hurricane Katrina (2005) during a 64-h period in which the storm progressed from a tropical storm to a category-4 ...
Jonathan Poterjoy; Fuqing Zhang
Evaluation of Atmospheric Fields from the ECMWF Seasonal Forecasts over a 15-Year Period
Since 1997, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) has made seasonal forecasts with ensembles of a coupled ocean�atmosphere model, System-1 (S1). In January 2002, a new version, System-2 (S2), was introduced. For the ...
Geert Jan van Oldenborgh; Magdalena A. Balmaseda; Laura Ferranti; Timothy N. Stockdale; David L. T. Anderson
The Skill of ECMWF Medium-Range Forecasts during the Year of Tropical Convection 2008
This study uses the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model-generated high-resolution 10-day-long predictions for the Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC) 2008. Precipitation forecast skills of the model over the tropics ...
Arindam Chakraborty
A Displacement-Based Error Measure Applied in a Regional Ensemble Forecasting System
Errors in regional forecasts often take the form of phase errors, where a forecasted weather system is displaced in space or time. For such errors, a direct measure of the displacement is likely to be more valuable than traditional measures. A ...
Christian Keil; George C. Craig
Experiences with 0�36-h Explicit Convective Forecasts with the WRF-ARW Model
Herein, a summary of the authors� experiences with 36-h real-time explicit (4 km) convective forecasts with the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF-ARW) during the 2003�05 spring and summer seasons is presented. These ...
Morris L. Weisman; Christopher Davis; Wei Wang; Kevin W. Manning; Joseph B. Klemp
Impact of a New Radiation Package, McRad, in the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System
A new radiation package, �McRad,� has become operational with cycle 32R2 of the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). McRad includes an improved description of the land surface ...
J-J. Morcrette; H. W. Barker; J. N. S. Cole; M. J. Iacono; R. Pincus
California Wind Energy Forecasting System Development and Testing, Phase 1: Initial Testing
Wind energy forecasting uses sophisticated numerical weather forecasting and wind plant power generation models to predict the hourly energy generation of a wind power plant up to 48 hours in advance. As a result, it has great potential to address the needs of the California Independent System Operator (ISO) and the wind plant operators, as well as power marketers and buyers and utility system dispatch personnel. This report gives the results of 28 days of testing of wind energy forecasting at a Californ...
Verifying Forecasts Spatially
Numerous new methods have been proposed for using spatial information to better quantify and diagnose forecast performance when forecasts and observations are both available on the same grid. The majority of the new spatial verification methods can be ...
Eric Gilleland; David A. Ahijevych; Barbara G. Brown; Elizabeth E. Ebert
Forecasting of Supercooled Clouds
Using parameterizations of cloud microphysics, a technique to forecast supercooled cloud events is suggested. This technique can be coupled on the mesoscale with a prognostic equation for cloud water to improve aircraft icing forecasts. The ...
Andr� Tremblay; Anna Glazer; Wanda Szyrmer; George Isaac; Isztar Zawadzki
Weather-clustering based strategy design for dynamic demand response building HVAC control
Energy consumption and room temperature can be simulated using EnergyPlus model, given the building model, weather information, and HVAC control strategy. For a given weather forecast, however, online simulation-based optimization of the HVAC control ... Keywords: EnergyPlus, building HVAC control strategy, clustering, dynamic demand response
Rui Liao; Geng Li; Shun Miao; Yan Lu; Jianmin Zhu; Ling Shen
Numerical Weather Predictions (NWP) can be regarded as the backbone for energy meteorol-
Abstract Numerical Weather Predictions (NWP) can be regarded as the backbone for energy meteorol- ogists when predicting highly fluctuating wind and solar power. While the meteorological fore- cast) is simulated with weather analysis and NWP forecasts. The distributed generation of wind power is favorable
Heinemann, Detlev
Time Series and Forecasting
Time Series and Forecasting. Leigh, Stefan and Perlman, S. (1991). "An Index for Comovement of Time Sequences With ...
Forecast Technical Document Volume Increment
Forecast Technical Document Volume Increment Forecasts A document describing how volume increment is handled in the 2011 Production Forecast. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley Halsall #12;PF2011 Volume increment forecasts Background A volume increment forecast is a fundamental output of the forecast
An Intelligent User Interface to Support Weather Report Generation
Modern-day computers have greatly advanced our ability to generate reasonably accurate weather forecast models in a timely manner. High-powered workstations have put the output from these models, as well as a tremendous amount of raw and analyzed ...
Darryl N. Leon; Michael L. Talbert
Weather Theory Weather Reports, Forcasts and Charts
GMU Weather Theory & Weather Reports, Forcasts and Charts Copyright 10/2010 AV-ED (For Reference Only) See 14CFR & AIM #12;GROUND SCHOOL / TEST SUBJECTS Session Subject Total / Actual Ques. 1 IN TEMPERATURE AS ALTITUDE INCREASES. - FREQUENT GROUND BASED TEMP INVERSION IS PRODUCED BY TERRESTRIAL RADIATION
A Real-Time Weather-Adaptive 3DVAR Analysis System for Severe Weather Detections and Warnings
A real-time, weather-adaptive three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3DVAR) system has been adapted for the NOAA Warn-on-Forecast (WoF) project to incorporate all available radar observations within a moveable analysis domain. The key ...
Jidong Gao; Travis M. Smith; David J. Stensrud; Chenghao Fu; Kristin Calhoun; Kevin L. Manross; Jeffrey Brogden; Valliappa Lakshmanan; Yunheng Wang; Kevin W. Thomas; Keith Brewster; Ming Xue
Linking Weather and Climate
Historically, the atmospheric sciences have tended to treat problems of weather and climate separately. The real physical system, however, is a continuum, with short-term (minutes to days) �weather� fluctuations influencing climate variations and ...
Randall M. Dole
Demand Impacted by Weather
When you look at demand, it�s also interesting to note the weather. The weather has a big impact on the demand of heating fuels, if it�s cold, consumers will use ...
Weather and Individual Happiness
This paper investigates the influence of weather on happiness. While previous studies have examined climatic influence by comparing the well-being of people living in different regions, this paper focuses on how daily changes in weather affect ...
Yoshiro Tsutsui
Weatherization & Intergovernmental Program: Projects
& Intergovernmental Program Projects Site Map Bookmark and Share Projects From energy efficiency initiatives - such as residential weatherization and state capitol...
Operational pollution forecast for the region of Bulgaria
An operational prototype of the Integrated Bulgarian Chemical Weather Forecasting and Information System is presented. This version of the system is limited to relatively low resolution (10 km) but covers all Bulgaria. It is based on the US EPA Models-3 System (MM5
D. Syrakov; I. Etropolska; M. Prodanova; K. Ganev; N. Miloshev; K. Slavov
Wind Power Forecasting: State-of-the-Art 2009
operator (ISO) Generate electricity to meet loads Strive to maximize profits Independent system rules Post next-day weather and load forecasts Compute and post market clearing prices Post unitElectric Power Market Simulations Using Individuals as Agents Guenter Conzelmann Argonne National
Kemner, Ken
A Classical-REEP Short-Range Forecast Procedure
A statistical technique has been designed to assist in the forecasting of weather elements in the 0�12-h time period. The method uses only the last two surface hourly observations for a particular station as predictors, and thus is suitable for ...
L. J. Wilson; R�al Sarrazin
Remarks on the Potential for Long-Range Forecasting
This paper, originally delivered as a lecture before the DOE-sponsored Workshop on Climate and Energy, offers some comments on the state-of-the-art of long-range weather forecasting based on the author's extensive decades of experience. An ...
Jerome Namias
Verification of clear-air turbulence forecasts June 2002, KNMI
to increase potential energy. Under these conditions turbulence will increase in intensity until different weather conditions. It often occurs in relatively clear skies and is then referred to as clear-airVerification of clear-air turbulence forecasts A. Overeem June 2002, KNMI Technisch rapport #12
Stoffelen, Ad
The Strategy of Professional Forecasting
This paper develops and compares two theories of strategic behavior of professional forecasters. The first theory posits that forecasters compete in a forecasting contest with pre-specified rules. In equilibrium of a winner-take-all contest, forecasts are excessively differentiated. According to the alternative reputational cheap talk theory, forecasters aim at convincing the market that they are well informed. The market evaluates their forecasting talent on the basis of the forecasts and the realized state. If the market expects forecaster honesty, forecasts are shaded toward the prior mean. With correct market expectations, equilibrium forecasts are imprecise but not shaded.
Marco Ottaviani; Peter Norman S�rensen
Weatherization pays big dividends
Weather Windows, do-it-yourself indoor vinyl storm windows, are a major project of the Duke Power Co. Weatherization Program. Various weatherization programs in existence across the United States are discussed, emphasizing their public relations aspects as well as the service they provide to customers regarding savings on electric bills. 1 figure.
Gorzelnik, E.F.
We validated one year of Global Forecast System (GFS) predictions of surface meteorological variables (wind speed, air temperature, dewpoint temperature, air pressure) over the entire planet for forecasts extending from zero hours into the future (an analysis) to 36 hours. Approximately 12,000 surface stations world-wide were included in this analysis. Root-Mean-Square- Errors (RMSE) increased as the forecast period increased from zero to 36 hours, but the initial RMSE were almost as large as the 36 hour forecast RMSE for all variables. Typical RMSE were 3 C for air temperature, 2-3mb for sea-level pressure, 3.5 C for dewpoint temperature and 2.5 m/s for wind speed. Approximately 20-40% of the GFS errors can be attributed to a lack of resolution of local features. We attribute the large initial RMSE for the zero hour forecasts to the inability of the GFS to resolve local terrain features that often dominate local weather conditions, e.g., mountain- valley circulations and sea and land breezes. Since the horizontal resolution of the GFS (about 1{sup o} of latitude and longitude) prevents it from simulating these locally-driven circulations, its performance will not improve until model resolution increases by a factor of 10 or more (from about 100 km to less than 10 km). Since this will not happen in the near future, an alternative for the near term to improve surface weather analyses and predictions for specific points in space and time would be implementation of a high-resolution, limited-area mesoscale atmospheric prediction model in regions of interest.
Werth, D.; Garrett, A.
Assessment of the possibility of forecasting future natural gas curtailments
This study provides a preliminary assessment of the potential for determining probabilities of future natural-gas-supply interruptions by combining long-range weather forecasts and natural-gas supply/demand projections. An illustrative example which measures the probability of occurrence of heating-season natural-gas curtailments for industrial users in the southeastern US is analyzed. Based on the information on existing long-range weather forecasting techniques and natural gas supply/demand projections enumerated above, especially the high uncertainties involved in weather forecasting and the unavailability of adequate, reliable natural-gas projections that take account of seasonal weather variations and uncertainties in the nation's energy-economic system, it must be concluded that there is little possibility, at the present time, of combining the two to yield useful, believable probabilities of heating-season gas curtailments in a form useful for corporate and government decision makers and planners. Possible remedial actions are suggested that might render such data more useful for the desired purpose in the future. The task may simply require the adequate incorporation of uncertainty and seasonal weather trends into modeling systems and the courage to report projected data, so that realistic natural gas supply/demand scenarios and the probabilities of their occurrence will be available to decision makers during a time when such information is greatly needed.
Lemont, S.
Objectively Determined Fair-Weather CBL Depths in the ARW-WRF Model and Their Comparison to CASES-97 Observations
High-resolution 24-h runs of the Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model are used to test eight objective methods for estimating convective boundary layer (CBL) depth h, using four planetary boundary layer schemes: ...
Margaret A. LeMone; Mukul Tewari; Fei Chen; Jimy Dudhia
Assessing the Capability of a Regional-Scale Weather Model to Simulate Extreme Precipitation Patterns and Flooding in Central Texas
A regional-scale weather model is used to determine the potential for flood forecasting based on model-predicted rainfall. Extreme precipitation and flooding events are a significant concern in central Texas, due to both the high occurrence and ...
Marla R. Knebl Lowrey; Zong-Liang Yang
Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: Apply for Weatherization...
missed. How will I benefit by participating in this program? Weatherization reduces your energy bills for a long time. Some measures, such as insulating your walls or roof, for...
Business forecasting methods
Forecasting is a common statistical task in business, where it helps inform decisions about scheduling of production, transportation and personnel, and provides a guide to long-term strategic planning. However, business forecasting is often done poorly and is frequently confused with planning and goals. They are three different things. Forecasting is about predicting the future as accurately as possible, given all the information available including historical data and knowledge of any future events that might impact the forecasts. Goals are what you would like to happen. Goals should be linked to forecasts and plans, but this does not always occur. Too often, goals are set without any plan for how to achieve them, and no forecasts for whether they are realistic. Planning is a response to forecasts and goals. Planning involves determining the appropriate actions that are required to make your forecasts match your goals. Forecasting should be an integral part of the decision-making activities of management, as it can play an important role in many areas of a company. Modern organizations require short-, medium- and long-term forecasts, depending on the specific application.
Roots of Ensemble Forecasting
The generation of a probabilistic view of dynamical weather prediction is traced back to the early 1950s, to that point in time when deterministic short-range numerical weather prediction (NWP) achieved its earliest success. Eric Eady was the ...
Assessing Advances in the Assimilation of Radar Data and Other Mesoscale Observations within a Collaborative Forecasting�Research Environment
The impacts of assimilating radar data and other mesoscale observations in real-time, convection-allowing model forecasts were evaluated during the spring seasons of 2008 and 2009 as part of the Hazardous Weather Test Bed Spring Experiment ...
John S. Kain; Ming Xue; Michael C. Coniglio; Steven J. Weiss; Fanyou Kong; Tara L. Jensen; Barbara G. Brown; Jidong Gao; Keith Brewster; Kevin W. Thomas; Yunheng Wang; Craig S. Schwartz; Jason J. Levit
Explicit Forecasts of Winter Precipitation Using an Improved Bulk Microphysics Scheme. Part II: Implementation of a New Snow Parameterization
A new bulk microphysical parameterization (BMP) has been developed for use with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model or other mesoscale models. As compared with earlier single-moment BMPs, the new scheme incorporates a large number of ...
Gregory Thompson; Paul R. Field; Roy M. Rasmussen; William D. Hall
Toward Improving High-Resolution Numerical Hurricane Forecasting: Influence of Model Horizontal Grid Resolution, Initialization, and Physics
This paper provides an account of the performance of an experimental version of the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting system (HWRFX) for 87 cases of Atlantic tropical cyclones during the 2005, 2007, and 2009 hurricane seasons. The HWRFX ...
Sundararaman G. Gopalakrishnan; Stanley Goldenberg; Thiago Quirino; Xuejin Zhang; Frank Marks Jr.; Kao-San Yeh; Robert Atlas; Vijay Tallapragada
Comparison of Impacts of WRF Dynamic Core, Physics Package, and Initial Conditions on Warm Season Rainfall Forecasts
A series of simulations for 15 events occurring during August 2002 were performed using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model over a domain encompassing most of the central United States to compare the sensitivity of warm season ...
William A. Gallus Jr.; James F. Bresch
Improvement of Typhoon Precipitation Forecast Efficiency by Coupling SSM/I Microwave Data with Climatologic Characteristics and Precipitation
Prediction of flash floods in an accurate and timely fashion is one of the most important challenges in weather prediction. This study aims to address the rainfall prediction problem for quantitative precipitation forecasts over land during ...
Chih-Chiang Wei
Influence of the Madden�Julian Oscillation on Forecasts of Extreme Precipitation in the Contiguous United States
Extreme precipitation events are among the most devastating weather phenomena since they are frequently accompanied by loss of life and property. This study uses reforecasts of the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS.v1) to evaluate the skill of ...
Charles Jones; Jon Gottschalck; Leila M. V. Carvalho; Wayne Higgins
Characteristics of High-Resolution Versions of the Met Office Unified Model for Forecasting Convection over the United Kingdom
With many operational centers moving toward order 1-km-gridlength models for routine weather forecasting, this paper presents a systematic investigation of the properties of high-resolution versions of the Met Office Unified Model for short-range ...
Humphrey W. Lean; Peter A. Clark; Mark Dixon; Nigel M. Roberts; Anna Fitch; Richard Forbes; Carol Halliwell
Can Climate Forecasts for the Growing Season be Valuable to Crop Producers: Some General Considerations and an Illinois Pilot Study
A three-step process is proposed to be most efficient for generating skillful climate forecasts which could reduce the adverse socioeconomic effects of climatic variability. These steps involve identifying weather-sensitive economic sectors, ...
Steven T. Sonka; Peter J. Lamb; Stanley A. Changnon Jr.; Aree Wiboonpongse
The Sensitivity of Numerical Forecasts to Convective Parameterization: A Case Study of the 17 February 2004 East Coast Cyclone
The sensitivity of numerical model forecasts of coastal cyclogenesis and frontogenesis to the choice of model cumulus parameterization (CP) scheme is examined for the 17 February 2004 southeastern U.S. winter weather event. This event featured a ...
Kelly M. Mahoney; Gary M. Lackmann
An Example of the Value of Strong Climatological Signals in Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting: Hurricane Ivan (2004)
Since 1970, tropical cyclone (TC) track forecasts have improved steadily in the Atlantic basin. This improvement has been linked primarily to advances in numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Concurrently, with few exceptions, the ...
Bradford S. Barrett; Lance M. Leslie; Brian H. Fiedler
Statistical Analysis of Forecasting Models across the North Slope of Alaska during the Mixed-Phase Arctic Clouds Experiment
The National Centers for Environmental Prediction�s (NCEP) Eta Model, the models of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration�s (NASA) Global Modeling and Assimilation ...
Victor T. Yannuzzi; Eugene E. Clothiaux; Jerry Y. Harrington; Johannes Verlinde
Impact of the Different Components of 4DVAR on the Global Forecast System of the Meteorological Service of Canada
A four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4DVAR) scheme has recently been implemented in the medium-range weather forecast system of the Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC). The new scheme is now composed of several additional and ...
St�phane Laroche; Pierre Gauthier; Monique Tanguay; Simon Pellerin; Jos�e Morneau
ORNL integrated forecasting system
This paper describes the integrated system for forecasting electric energy and load. In the system, service area models of electrical energy (kWh) and load distribution (minimum and maximum loads and load duration curve) are linked to a state-level model of electrical energy (kWh). Thus, the service area forecasts are conditional upon the state-level forecasts. Such a linkage reduces considerably the data requirements for modeling service area electricity demand.
Rizy, C.G.
Probabilistic Forecasts from the National Digital Forecast Database
The Bayesian processor of forecast (BPF) is developed for a continuous predictand. Its purpose is to process a deterministic forecast (a point estimate of the predictand) into a probabilistic forecast (a distribution function, a density function, ...
Roman Krzysztofowicz; W. Britt Evans
2.1.2 European Solar Radiation Atlas (ESRA)2.4 Evaluation of Solar Forecasting . . . . . . . . .2.4.1 Solar Variability . . . . . . . . . . . . .