text:
Office of Scientific and Technical Information
QuikSCAT Impacts on Coastal Forecasts and Warnings: Operational Utility of Satellite Ocean Surface Vector Wind Data
Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)
This study reports on the operational utility of ocean surface vector wind (SVW) data from Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT) observations in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Forecast ...
Ralph F. Milliff; Peter A. Stamus
Synoptic Forecasting of the Oceanic Mixed Layer Using the Navy's Operational Environmental Data Base: Present Capabilities and Future Applications
A synoptic forecast model of the oceanic mixed layer has been developed for operational use at the U.S. Navy's Fleet Numerical Oceanography Center (FNOC), Monterey, Calif. The potential success of this model depends critically on the quality of ...
R. Michael Clancy; Paul J. Martin
Intercomparison of the Performance of Operational Ocean Wave Forecasting Systems with Buoy Data
The monthly exchange of ocean wave model data has successfully been taking place among five operational weather centers. The data are compared with observations obtained from moored buoys and platforms. The analysis of 3 yr of data has helped to ...
Jean-Raymond Bidlot; Damian J. Holmes; Paul A. Wittmann; Roop Lalbeharry; Hsuan S. Chen
Application of Oceanic Heat Content Estimation to Operational Forecasting of Recent Atlantic Category 5 Hurricanes
Research investigating the importance of the subsurface ocean structure on tropical cyclone intensity change has been ongoing for several decades. While the emergence of altimetry-derived sea height observations from satellites dates back to the ...
Michelle Mainelli; Mark DeMaria; Lynn K. Shay; Gustavo Goni
Forecasting the Coastal Ocean: Resolution, Tide, and Operational Data in the South Atlantic Bight
This paper addresses shelf-scale simulation with dominant open-water boundary conditions obtained by inversion of interior data. Important, established operational data streams are located along the shore of the study area, in areas influenced ...
D. Lynch; K. Smith; B. Blanton; R. Luettich; F. Werner
NOS Point Forecast Guidance to Weather and Ocean Conditions ...
NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)
Point Forecast Guidance to Weather and Ocean Conditions Ocean Data Tools Technical Guide Map Gallery Regional Planning Feedback Ocean You are here Data.gov Communities Ocean...
NOS Point Forecast Guidance to Weather and Ocean Conditions Ocean Data Tools Technical Guide Map Gallery Regional Planning Feedback Ocean You are here Data.gov Communities ...
Operational Forecaster Uncertainty Needs and Future Roles
Key results of a comprehensive survey of U.S. National Weather Service operational forecast managers concerning the assessment and communication of forecast uncertainty are presented and discussed. The survey results revealed that forecasters are ...
David R. Novak; David R. Bright; Michael J. Brennan
Critical Operating Constraint Forecasting (COCF)
This document represents the progress report and Task 1 letter report of the California Institute for Energy and Environment (CIEE) contract funded by the California Energy Commission (CEC), Critical Operating Constraint Forecasting (COCF) for California Independent System Operator (CAISO) Planning Phase. Task 1 was to accomplish the following items: Collect data from CAISO to set up the WECC power flow base case representing the CAISO system in the summer of 2006 Run TRACE for maximizing California Impo...
An Evaluation of Environment Canada's Operational Ocean Wave Model Based on Moored Buoy Data
An operational ocean wave model called the Canadian Spectral Ocean Wave Model (CSOWM) has been implemented in the operational forecasting system of the Atmospheric Environment Service, Environment Canada, since early 1991. The present operational ...
M. L. Khandekar; R. Lalbeharry
A Nowcast/Forecast System for Coastal Ocean Circulation Using Simple Nudging Data Assimilation
This study describes the establishment of a Nowcast/Forecast System for Coastal Ocean Circulation (NFS-COC), which was run operationally on a daily basis to provide users ocean surface currents and sea levels that vary with synoptic winds, and ...
Jia Wang
Retrospective ENSO Forecasts: Sensitivity to Atmospheric Model and Ocean Resolution
Results are described from a series of 40 retrospective forecasts of tropical Pacific SST, starting 1 January and 1 July 1980�99, performed with several coupled ocean�atmosphere general circulation models sharing the same ocean model�the Modular ...
Edwin K. Schneider; Ben P. Kirtman; David G. DeWitt; Anthony Rosati; Link Ji; Joseph J. Tribbia
The Selection and Use of Dropwindsonde-Equipped Aircraft for Operational Forecasting Applications
This article discusses the feasibility of using dropwindsonde-equipped aircraft to obtain meteorological observations over oceanic data- void areas for operational forecasting applications. Such in-situ meteorological observations would provide ...
Michael W. Douglas
Distribution of Wind Power Forecasting Errors from Operational Systems (Presentation)
SciTech Connect
This presentation offers new data and statistical analysis of wind power forecasting errors in operational systems.
Hodge, B. M.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.
Quantification of Uncertainity in Fire-Weather Forecasts: Some Results of Operational and Experimental Forecasting Programs
Fire-weather forecasts (FWFs) prepared by National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters on an operational basis are traditionally expressed in categorical terms. However, to make rational and optimal use of such forecasts, fire managers need ...
Barbara G. Brown; Allan H. Murphy
Critical Operating Constraints Forecast-- Functional Specification
Critical operating constraints that could result in curtailments of load may occur in a transmission grid with areas of potential generation deficit and limited transmission import capacities. In such situations, it is crucial that the grid operators have a tool to predict when and where critical operating constraints would occur. This report describes the functional specification of such a decision support tool, called the COCF (Critical Operating Constraint Forecast).
Wind Speed Forecasting for Power System Operation
E-Print Network (OSTI)
In order to support large-scale integration of wind power into current electric energy system, accurate wind speed forecasting is essential, because the high variation and limited predictability of wind pose profound challenges to the power system operation in terms of the efficiency of the system. The goal of this dissertation is to develop advanced statistical wind speed predictive models to reduce the uncertainties in wind, especially the short-term future wind speed. Moreover, a criterion is proposed to evaluate the performance of models. Cost reduction in power system operation, as proposed, is more realistic than prevalent criteria, such as, root mean square error (RMSE) and absolute mean error (MAE). Two advanced space-time statistical models are introduced for short-term wind speed forecasting. One is a modified regime-switching, space-time wind speed fore- casting model, which allows the forecast regimes to vary according to the dominant wind direction and seasons. Thus, it avoids a subjective choice of regimes. The other one is a novel model that incorporates a new variable, geostrophic wind, which has strong influence on the surface wind, into one of the advanced space-time statistical forecasting models. This model is motivated by the lack of improvement in forecast accuracy when using air pressure and temperature directly. Using geostrophic wind in the model is not only critical, it also has a meaningful geophysical interpretation. The importance of model evaluation is emphasized in the dissertation as well. Rather than using RMSE or MAE, the performance of both wind forecasting models mentioned above are assessed by economic benefits with real wind farm data from Pacific Northwest of the U.S and West Texas. Wind forecasts are incorporated into power system economic dispatch models, and the power system operation cost is used as a loss measure for the performance of the forecasting models. From another perspective, the new criterion leads to cost-effective scheduling of system-wide wind generation with potential economic benefits arising from the system-wide generation of cost savings and ancillary services cost savings. As an illustration, the integrated forecasts and economic dispatch framework are applied to the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) equivalent 24- bus system. Compared with persistence and autoregressive models, the first model suggests that cost savings from integration of wind power could be on the scale of tens of millions of dollars. For the second model, numerical simulations suggest that the overall generation cost can be reduced by up to 6.6% using look-ahead dispatch coupled with spatio-temporal wind forecast as compared with dispatch with persistent wind forecast model.
Zhu, Xinxin
Dynamical forecast experiments with a baroclinic quasigeostrophic open ocean model
We report here on a series of numerical forecast experiments using a baroclinic quasigeostropic open ocean model. A simulation has been carried out to produce a model data set consisting of values of streamfunction and potential vorticity in four dimensions. This data set exhibits quasiturbulent characteristics similar to those of the mesoscale eddy field in the North Western Atlantic. The simulation has been carried out for several model years over many independent synoptic realizations.
Robert N. Miller; Allan R. Robinson
Application of Forecast Verification Science to Operational River Forecasting in the U.S. National Weather Service
Forecast verification in operational hydrology has been very limited to date, mainly due to the complexity of verifying both forcing input forecasts and hydrologic forecasts on multiple space�time scales. However, forecast verification needs to ...
Julie Demargne; Mary Mullusky; Kevin Werner; Thomas Adams; Scott Lindsey; Noreen Schwein; William Marosi; Edwin Welles
Wind Power Forecasting andWind Power Forecasting and Electricity Market Operations
Power Forecasting in Five U.S. Electricity Markets MISO NYISO PJM ERCOT CAISO Peak load 109,157 MW (7 ........................................................................................... 18 4 WIND POWER FORECASTING AND ELECTRICITY MARKET OPERATIONS............................................................ 18 4-1 Market Operation and Wind Power Forecasting in Five U.S. Electricity Markets .......... 21 #12
Kemner, Ken
An Operational Model for Forecasting Probability of Precipitation and Yes/No Forecast
An operational system for forecasting probability of precipitation (PoP) and yes/no forecast over 10 stations during monsoon season is developed. A perfect prog method (PPM) approach is followed for statistical interpretation of numerical weather ...
Ashok Kumar; Parvinder Maini; S. V. Singh
Role of Retrospective Forecasts of GCMs Forced with Persisted SST Anomalies in Operational Streamflow Forecasts Development
Seasonal streamflow forecasts contingent on climate information are essential for water resources planning and management as well as for setting up contingency measures during extreme years. In this study, operational streamflow forecasts are ...
A. Sankarasubramanian; Upmanu Lall; Susan Espinueva
The Atmospheric Hydrologic Cycle over the Southern Ocean and Antarctica from Operational Numerical Analyses
Moisture budget calculations for Antarctica and the Southern Ocean (40��72deg;S) are performed using operational numerical analyses from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the National Meteorological Center (NMC), and ...
David H. Bromwich; Frank M. Robasky; Richard I. Cullather; Michael L. Van Woert
The Operational Use of QuikSCAT Ocean Surface Vector Winds at the National Hurricane Center
The utility and shortcomings of near-real-time ocean surface vector wind retrievals from the NASA Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT) in operational forecast and analysis activities at the National Hurricane Center (NHC) are described. The use of ...
Michael J. Brennan; Christopher C. Hennon; Richard D. Knabb
Operations of the National Severe Storms Forecast Center
The National Severe Storms Forecast Center in Kansas City, Missouri, is composed of several operational forecasting units, all national in scope. It includes the Severe Local Storms Unit (SELS), the National Aviation Weather Advisory Unit (NAWAU),...
Frederick P. Ostby
An Improved Operational System for Forecasting Precipitation Type
A Model Output Statistics system for forecasting the conditional probability of precipitation type (PoPT) became operational within the National Weather Service in September 1978. Forecasts are provided for three precipitation type categories: ...
Joseph R. Bocchieri; George J. Maglaras
Real-Time Data Assimilation for Operational Ensemble Streamflow Forecasting
Operational flood forecasting requires that accurate estimates of the uncertainty associated with model-generated streamflow forecasts be provided along with the probable flow levels. This paper demonstrates a stochastic ensemble implementation ...
Jasper A. Vrugt; Hoshin V. Gupta; Breannd�n� Nuall�in; Willem Bouten
Impact of ECCO Ocean-State Estimates on the Initialization of Seasonal Climate Forecasts
The impact of ocean-state estimates generated by the consortium for Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO) on the initialization of a coupled general circulation model (CGCM) for seasonal climate forecasts is examined. The ...
Gabriel Cazes-Boezio; Dimitris Menemenlis; Carlos R. Mechoso
Operational Impact of QuikSCAT Winds at the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center
The NASA Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT) has revolutionized the analysis and short-term forecasting of winds over the oceans at the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center (OPC). The success of QuikSCAT in OPC operations is due to the wide 1800-km swath ...
Joan M. Von Ahn; Joseph M. Sienkiewicz; Paul S. Chang
Remote Sensing Of Snow Cover For Operational Forecasts
The areal extent of the seasonal snow cover is an important input variable for operational snowmelt runoff forecasts. It can be monitored by satellites and used by the SRM Snowmelt Runoff Model. An example is presented of simulated dayto -day runoff forecasts for a hydroelectric station Sedrun (108 km , 1840-3210 m a.s.l.). For realtime runoff forecasts it will be necessary to evaluate the satellite data within several days after each overflight. 1
K. Seidel; J. Martinec; C. Steinmeier; W. Bruesch
Assessing the Skill of Operational Atlantic Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Forecasts
Since 1984, W. Gray of Colorado State University and a team of researchers have been issuing seasonal tropical cyclone forecasts for the North Atlantic Ocean. Prior to this, little work had been done in the area of long-term tropical cyclone ...
Brian F. Owens; Christopher W. Landsea
Short-Term Wind Speed Forecasting for Power System Operations
Global large scale penetration of wind energy is accompanied by significant challenges due to the intermittent and unstable nature of wind. High quality short-term wind speed forecasting is critical to reliable and secure power system operations. This paper gives an overview of the current status of worldwide wind power developments and future trends, and reviews some statistical short-term wind speed forecasting models, including traditional time series models and advanced space-time statistical models. It also discusses the evaluation of forecast accuracy, in particular the need for realistic loss functions. New challenges in wind speed forecasting regarding ramp events and offshore wind farms are also presented.
Xinxin Zhu; Marc G. Genton
Dynamical Properties of MOS Forecasts: Analysis of the ECMWF Operational Forecasting System
The dynamical properties of ECMWF operational forecasts corrected by a (linear) model output statistics (MOS) technique are investigated, in light of the analysis performed in the context of low-order chaotic systems. Based on the latter work, ...
S. Vannitsem
Changes to the 1995 NCEP Operational Medium-Range Forecast Model Analysis�Forecast System
Recent changes in the operational National Centers for Environmental Prediction (formerly the National Meteorological Center) global analysis�forecast system are described. The most significant analysis change was the direct use of satellite-...
Peter Caplan; John Derber; William Gemmill; Song-You Hong; Hua-Lu Pan; David Parrish
Dynamical Initialization for the Numerical Forecasting of Ocean Surface Circulations Using a Variational Assimilation System
A variational data assimilation system is presented for the initialization of an ocean surface circulation forecast system. The authors� variational data assimilation system is designed to satisfy both statistical and dynamical constraints. As is ...
Yoichi Ishikawa; Toshiyuki Awaji; Nobumasa Komori
Characteristics of Subsurface Ocean Response to ENSO Assessed from Simulations with the NCEP Climate Forecast System
The subsurface ocean temperature response to El Ni�o�Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is examined based on 31-yr (1981�2011) simulations with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System (CFS) coupled model. The ...
Hui Wang; Arun Kumar; Wanqiu Wang
Targeted Observations to Improve Operational Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Guidance
Since 1997, the Tropical Prediction Center and the Hurricane Research Division have conducted operational synoptic surveillance missions with a Gulfstream IV-SP jet aircraft to improve numerical forecast guidance. Due to limited aircraft ...
Sim D. Aberson
Subhourly wind forecasting techniques for wind turbine operations
DOE Green Energy (OSTI)
Three models for making automated forecasts of subhourly wind and wind power fluctuations were examined to determine the models' appropriateness, accuracy, and reliability in wind forecasting for wind turbine operation. Such automated forecasts appear to have value not only in wind turbine control and operating strategies, but also in improving individual wind turbine control and operating strategies, but also in improving individual wind turbine operating strategies (such as determining when to attempt startup). A simple persistence model, an autoregressive model, and a generalized equivalent Markhov (GEM) model were developed and tested using spring season data from the WKY television tower located near Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. The three models represent a pure measurement approach, a pure statistical method and a statistical-dynamical model, respectively. Forecasting models of wind speed means and measures of deviations about the mean were developed and tested for all three forecasting techniques for the 45-meter level and for the 10-, 30- and 60-minute time intervals. The results of this exploratory study indicate that a persistence-based approach, using onsite measurements, will probably be superior in the 10-minute time frame. The GEM model appears to have the most potential in 30-minute and longer time frames, particularly when forecasting wind speed fluctuations. However, several improvements to the GEM model are suggested. In comparison to the other models, the autoregressive model performed poorly at all time frames; but, it is recommended that this model be upgraded to an autoregressive moving average (ARMA or ARIMA) model. The primary constraint in adapting the forecasting models to the production of wind turbine cluster power output forecasts is the lack of either actual data, or suitable models, for simulating wind turbine cluster performance.
Wegley, H.L.; Kosorok, M.R.; Formica, W.J.
Operational forecasting based on a modified Weather Research and Forecasting model
Accurate short-term forecasts of wind resources are required for efficient wind farm operation and ultimately for the integration of large amounts of wind-generated power into electrical grids. Siemens Energy Inc. and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, with the University of Colorado at Boulder, are collaborating on the design of an operational forecasting system for large wind farms. The basis of the system is the numerical weather prediction tool, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model; large-eddy simulations and data assimilation approaches are used to refine and tailor the forecasting system. Representation of the atmospheric boundary layer is modified, based on high-resolution large-eddy simulations of the atmospheric boundary. These large-eddy simulations incorporate wake effects from upwind turbines on downwind turbines as well as represent complex atmospheric variability due to complex terrain and surface features as well as atmospheric stability. Real-time hub-height wind speed and other meteorological data streams from existing wind farms are incorporated into the modeling system to enable uncertainty quantification through probabilistic forecasts. A companion investigation has identified optimal boundary-layer physics options for low-level forecasts in complex terrain, toward employing decadal WRF simulations to anticipate large-scale changes in wind resource availability due to global climate change.
Lundquist, J; Glascoe, L; Obrecht, J
A Multigrid Wave Forecasting Model: A New Paradigm in Operational Wave Forecasting
A new operational wave forecasting system has been implemented at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) using the third public release of WAVEWATCH III. The new system uses a mosaic of grids with two-way nesting in a single ...
Arun Chawla; Hendrik L. Tolman; Vera Gerald; Deanna Spindler; Todd Spindler; Jose-Henrique G. M. Alves; Degui Cao; Jeffrey L. Hanson; Eve-Marie Devaliere
Investigating the Utility of Using Cross-Oceanic Training Sets for Superensemble Forecasting of Eastern Pacific Tropical Cyclone Track and Intensity
This paper examines how combining training-set forecasts from two separate oceanic basins affects the resulting tropical cyclone track and intensity forecasts in a particular oceanic basin. Atlantic and eastern Pacific training sets for 2002 and ...
Mark R. Jordan II; T. N. Krishnamurti; Carol Anne Clayson
The Impact of Ocean Data Assimilation on Seasonal-to-Interannual Forecasts: A Case Study of the 2006 El Ni�o Event
This study investigates the impact of four different ocean analyses on coupled forecasts of the 2006 El Ni�o event. Forecasts initialized in June 2006 using ocean analyses from an assimilation that uses flow-dependent background error covariances ...
Shu-Chih Yang; Michele Rienecker; Christian Keppenne
Development, implementation, and skill assessment of the NOAA/NOS Great Lakes Operational Forecast System
Development, implementation, and skill assessment of the NOAA/NOS Great Lakes Operational Forecast Lakes Operational Forecast System (GLOFS) uses near-real-time atmospheric observa- tions and numerical weather prediction forecast guidance to produce three-dimensional forecasts of water temperature
Impact of Kalpana-1-Derived Water Vapor Winds on Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclone Forecasts
The water vapor winds from the operational geostationary Indian National Satellite (INSAT) Kalpana-1 have recently become operational at the Space Applications Centre (SAC). A series of experimental forecasts are attempted here to evaluate the ...
S. K. Deb; C. M. Kishtawal; P. K. Pal
Operational pollution forecast for the region of Bulgaria
An operational prototype of the Integrated Bulgarian Chemical Weather Forecasting and Information System is presented. This version of the system is limited to relatively low resolution (10 km) but covers all Bulgaria. It is based on the US EPA Models-3 System (MM5
D. Syrakov; I. Etropolska; M. Prodanova; K. Ganev; N. Miloshev; K. Slavov
Use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.
The rapid expansion of wind power gives rise to a number of challenges for power system operators and electricity market participants. The key operational challenge is to efficiently handle the uncertainty and variability of wind power when balancing supply and demand in ths system. In this report, we analyze how wind power forecasting can serve as an efficient tool toward this end. We discuss the current status of wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets and develop several methodologies and modeling tools for the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions, from the perspectives of the system operator as well as the wind power producer. In particular, we focus on the use of probabilistic forecasts in operational decisions. Driven by increasing prices for fossil fuels and concerns about greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, wind power, as a renewable and clean source of energy, is rapidly being introduced into the existing electricity supply portfolio in many parts of the world. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has analyzed a scenario in which wind power meets 20% of the U.S. electricity demand by 2030, which means that the U.S. wind power capacity would have to reach more than 300 gigawatts (GW). The European Union is pursuing a target of 20/20/20, which aims to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 20%, increase the amount of renewable energy to 20% of the energy supply, and improve energy efficiency by 20% by 2020 as compared to 1990. Meanwhile, China is the leading country in terms of installed wind capacity, and had 45 GW of installed wind power capacity out of about 200 GW on a global level at the end of 2010. The rapid increase in the penetration of wind power into power systems introduces more variability and uncertainty in the electricity generation portfolio, and these factors are the key challenges when it comes to integrating wind power into the electric power grid. Wind power forecasting (WPF) is an important tool to help efficiently address this challenge, and significant efforts have been invested in developing more accurate wind power forecasts. In this report, we document our work on the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.
Botterud, A.; Zhi, Z.; Wang, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Mendes, J.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V. (Decision and Information Sciences); (INESC Porto)
Dynamical Forecast Experiments with a Barotropic Open Ocean Model
The initial/boundary value problem for the barotropic version of a quasi-geostrophic open ocean model which requires normal flow everywhere on the boundary and vorticity on the inflow is studied. Parameter dependencies and sensitivities are ...
A. R. Robinson; D. B. Haidvogel
Enhanced Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting and Value to Grid Operations: Preprint
The current state of the art of wind power forecasting in the 0- to 6-hour time frame has levels of uncertainty that are adding increased costs and risk on the U.S. electrical grid. It is widely recognized within the electrical grid community that improvements to these forecasts could greatly reduce the costs and risks associated with integrating higher penetrations of wind energy. The U.S. Department of Energy has sponsored a research campaign in partnership with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and private industry to foster improvements in wind power forecasting. The research campaign involves a three-pronged approach: 1) a 1-year field measurement campaign within two regions; 2) enhancement of NOAA's experimental 3-km High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model by assimilating the data from the field campaign; and 3) evaluation of the economic and reliability benefits of improved forecasts to grid operators. This paper and presentation provides an overview of the regions selected, instrumentation deployed, data quality and control, assimilation of data into HRRR, and preliminary results of HRRR performance analysis.
Orwig, K.; Clark, C.; Cline, J.; Benjamin, S.; Wilczak, J.; Marquis, M.; Finley, C.; Stern, A.; Freedman, J.
Verification of Cloud Forecasts over the Eastern Pacific Using Passive Satellite Retrievals
Operational cloud forecasts generated by the Coupled Ocean�Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS) were verified over the eastern Pacific Ocean. The study focused on the accuracy of cloud forecasts associated with extratropical cyclone ...
Jason E. Nachamkin; Jerome Schmidt; Cristian Mitrescu
Southern Hemisphere Medium-Range Forecast Skill and Predictability: A Comparison of Two Operational Models
The skill of two global numerical weather prediction models, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) medium-range forecast model and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) operational model, has been ...
James A. Renwick; Craig S. Thompson
Price Forecasting and Optimal Operation of Wholesale Customers in a Competitive Electricity Market.
??This thesis addresses two main issues: first, forecasting short-term electricity market prices; and second, the application of short-term electricity market price forecasts to operation planning� (more)
Zareipour, Hamidreza
The Role of Latent Heat Release in Explosive Cyclogenesis: Three Examples Based on ECMWF Operational Forecasts
Operational forecasts from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts of three cases of explosive cyclogenesis of large magnitude that occurred in the North Atlantic during a 1-week period in January 1986 are presented, and results of ...
Richard J. Reed; Mark D. Albright; Adrian J. Sammons; Per Und�n
Impacts of Improved Day-Ahead Wind Forecasts on Power Grid Operations: September 2011
This study analyzed the potential benefits of improving the accuracy (reducing the error) of day-ahead wind forecasts on power system operations, assuming that wind forecasts were used for day ahead security constrained unit commitment.
Piwko, R.; Jordan, G.
The Operational Impact of QuikSCAT Winds in Perth, Australia: Examples and Limitations
The preparation of accurate operational weather forecasts and the timely issuance of severe marine weather and ocean warnings and advisories for major oceanic weather systems impacting both coastal areas and the open ocean are major forecasting ...
Lance M. Leslie; Bruce W. Buckley; Mark Leplastrier
The Science of NOAA's Operational Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service
NOAA's National Weather Service (NWS) is implementing a short- to long-range Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service (HEFS). The HEFS addresses the need to quantify uncertainty in hydrologic forecasts for flood risk management, water supply management, ...
Julie Demargne; Limin Wu; Satish Regonda; James Brown; Haksu Lee; Minxue He; Dong-Jun Seo; Robert Hartman; Henry D. Herr; Mark Fresch; John Schaake; Yuejian Zhu
Puget Sound Operational Forecast System - A Real-time Predictive Tool for Marine Resource Management and Emergency Responses
To support marine ecological resource management and emergency response and to enhance scientific understanding of physical and biogeochemical processes in Puget Sound, a real-time Puget Sound Operational Forecast System (PS-OFS) was developed by the Coastal Ocean Dynamics & Ecosystem Modeling group (CODEM) of Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). PS-OFS employs the state-of-the-art three-dimensional coastal ocean model and closely follows the standards and procedures established by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Ocean Service (NOS). PS-OFS consists of four key components supporting the Puget Sound Circulation and Transport Model (PS-CTM): data acquisition, model execution and product archive, model skill assessment, and model results dissemination. This paper provides an overview of PS-OFS and its ability to provide vital real-time oceanographic information to the Puget Sound community. PS-OFS supports pacific northwest region�s growing need for a predictive tool to assist water quality management, fish stock recovery efforts, maritime emergency response, nearshore land-use planning, and the challenge of climate change and sea level rise impacts. The structure of PS-OFS and examples of the system inputs and outputs, forecast results are presented in details.
Yang, Zhaoqing; Khangaonkar, Tarang; Chase, Jared M.; Wang, Taiping
Exploiting Weather Forecast Information in the Operation of ...
Mar 4, 2009 ... On-Line Economic Optimization of Energy Systems Using Weather Forecast Information. Victor M Zavala (vzavala ***at*** mcs.anl.gov)
Three Years of Operational Prediction of Forecast Skill at NMC
In real time since 1990, the National Meteorological Center (NMC) has been running a system to predict the forecast skill of the medium-range forecasts produced by the NMC global spectral model. The predictors used are the agreement of an ...
Richard L. Wobus; Eugenia Kalnay
A Comparative Analysis of Upper-Ocean Heat Content Variability from an Ensemble of Operational Ocean Reanalyses
Ocean heat content (HC) is one of the key indicators of climate variability and also provides ocean memory critical for seasonal and decadal predictions. The availability of multiple operational ocean analyses (ORAs) now routinely produced around ...
Yan Xue; Magdalena A. Balmaseda; Tim Boyer; Nicolas Ferry; Simon Good; Ichiro Ishikawa; Arun Kumar; Michele Rienecker; Anthony J. Rosati; Yonghong Yin
COAMPS Real-Time Dust Storm Forecasting during Operation Iraqi Freedom
Dust storms are a significant weather phenomenon in the Iraq region in winter and spring. Real-time dust forecasting using the U.S. Navy�s Coupled Ocean�Atmospheric Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS) with an in-line dust aerosol model was ...
Ming Liu; Douglas L. Westphal; Annette L. Walker; Teddy R. Holt; Kim A. Richardson; Steven D. Miller
Integration of Variable Generation Forecasting into System Operations: Current Practices and Future Requirements
This project update provides the first output of the EPRI Bulk Renewable Integration Program Project P173-010, �Integration of Variable Generation Forecasts into System Operations.� This project, begun in 2013, aims to improve existing methods utilities/independent system operators (ISOs) use to integrate forecasts into system operations and develop new methods. This year�s goal was to identify current practices and future requirements. This was done by interacting with a wide ...
Operational Ocean Search and Rescue Using AVHRR: Cloud Limitations
Sea surface currents can be derived from sequential Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) images. However, the operational feasibility of deriving ocean surface currents from AVHRR is severely limited by the inability of AVHRR to ...
J. E. Dick O�Donnell
An Operational Global-Scale Ocean Thermal Analysis System
The Optimum Thermal Interpolation System (OTIS) is an ocean thermal analysis product developed for real-time operational use at the U.S. Navy's Fleet Numerical Oceanography Center. It functions in an analysis-prediction-analysis data assimilation ...
R. Michael Clancy; Patricia A. Phoebus; Kenneth D. Pollak
A Preliminary Investigation of Temperature Errors in Operational Forecasting Models
Temperatures taken from model output (FOUS reports) routinely transmitted by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction are tabulated to determine errors during three months in the summer of 1996. These short-term model forecasts are ...
Frank P. Colby Jr.
Large Forecast Degradations due to Synoptic Surveillance during the 2004 and 2005 Hurricane Seasons
Though operational tropical cyclone synoptic surveillance generally leads to smaller track forecast errors in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Global Forecasting System (GFS) than would occur otherwise, not every case is ...
Description and Verification of the NOAA Smoke Forecasting System: The 2007 Fire Season
An overview of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration�s (NOAA) current operational Smoke Forecasting System (SFS) is presented. This system is intended as guidance to air quality forecasters and the public for fine particulate matter ...
Glenn D. Rolph; Roland R. Draxler; Ariel F. Stein; Albion Taylor; Mark G. Ruminski; Shobha Kondragunta; Jian Zeng; Ho-Chun Huang; Geoffrey Manikin; Jeffery T. McQueen; Paula M. Davidson
Navy Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM), South Atlantic Bight | Data...
first-generation global system, a progression of planned ocean analysis and forecast systems delivered for Navy operations at the Naval Oceanographic Office (NAVOCEANO)....
Real-Time Operational Forecasting on Shipboard of the Iceland-Faeroe Frontal Variability
Real-time operational shipboard forecasts of Iceland-Faeroe frontal variability were executed for the first time with a primitive equation mode. High quality, intensive hydrographic surveys during August 1993 were used for initialization, ...
A. R. Robinson; H. G. Arango; W. G. Leslie; A. J. Miller; A. Warn-Varnas; P-M. Poulain
Model Output Statistics Forecasts: Three Years of Operational Experience in the Netherlands
In the Netherlands, one to five day Model Output Statistics (MOS) forecasts have been used operationally since November 1983. The weather elements predicted are the probability of precipitation, the conditional probability of frozen precipitation,...
C. Lemcke; S. Kruizinga
The Description of the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System's Spectral Forecast Model
We present a description of the development of the spectral forecast components of the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS). The original system, called 3.0, was introduced in January 1988. New versions were introduced ...
Timothy F. Hogan; Thomas E. Rosmond
Real-Time Variational Assimilation of Hydrologic and Hydrometeorological Data into Operational Hydrologic Forecasting
Variational assimilation (VAR) of hydrologic and hydrometeorological data into operational hydrologic forecasting is explored. The data assimilated are the hourly real-time observations of streamflow and precipitation, and climatological ...
Dong-Jun Seo; Victor Koren; Neftali Cajina
On the Use of Mesoscale and Cloud-Scale Models in Operational Forecasting
In the near future, the technological capability will be available to use mesoscale and cloud-scale numerical models for forecasting convective weather in operational meteorology. We address some of the issues concerning effective utilization of ...
Harold E. Brooks; Charles A. Doswell III; Robert A. Maddox
Verification of Extratropical Cyclones within the NCEP Operational Models. Part II: The Short-Range Ensemble Forecast System
This paper verifies the strengths and positions of extratropical cyclones around North America and the adjacent oceans within the Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) system at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) during the ...
Michael E. Charles; Brian A. Colle
Tropical Cyclone Formations over the Western North Pacific in the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System Forecasts
A set of criteria is developed to identify tropical cyclone (TC) formations in the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) analyses and forecast fields. Then the NOGAPS forecasts of TC formations from 1997 to 1999 are ...
Kevin K. W. Cheung; Russell L. Elsberry
Probability Forecasting in Sweden: Some Results of Experimental and Operational Programs at the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute
This paper describes new operational and experimental forecasting programs at the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) designed to provide users with more detailed and more useful weather forecasts. User groups currently ...
Karl-Ivar Ivarsson; Rune Joelsson; Erik Liljas; Allan H. Murphy
A Blended Satellite Total Precipitable Water Product for Operational Forecasting
Total precipitable water (TPW), the amount of water vapor in a column from the surface of the earth to space, is used by forecasters to predict heavy precipitation. In this paper, a process for blending TPW values retrieved from two satellite ...
Stanley Q. Kidder; Andrew S. Jones
Climate Variability over the Tropical Indian Ocean Sector in the NSIPP Seasonal Forecast System
Prospects for forecasting Indian dipole mode (IDM) events with lead times of a season or more are examined using the NASA Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP) coupled-model forecast system. The mean climatology of the system over ...
Roxana C. Wajsowicz
From Predicting Solar Activity to Forecasting Space Weather: Practical Examples of Research-to-Operations and Operations-to-Research
The successful transition of research to operations (R2O) and operations to research (O2R) requires, above all, interaction between the two communities. We explore the role that close interaction and ongoing communication played in the successful fielding of three separate developments: an observation platform, a numerical model, and a visualization and specification tool. Additionally, we will examine how these three pieces came together to revolutionize interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) arrival forecasts. A discussion of the importance of education and training in ensuring a positive outcome from R2O activity follows. We describe efforts by the meteorological community to make research results more accessible to forecasters and the applicability of these efforts to the transfer of space-weather research.We end with a forecaster "wish list" for R2O transitions. Ongoing, two-way communication between the research and operations communities is the thread connecting it all.
Steenburgh, R A; Millward, G H
Numerical Discretization of Rotated Diffusion Operators in Ocean Models
A method to improve the behavior of the numerical discretization of a rotated diffusion operator such as, for example, the isopycnal diffusion parameterization used in large-scale ocean models based on the so-called z-coordinate system is ...
J-M. Beckers; H. Burchard; E. Deleersnijder; P. P. Mathieu
Wind Power Forecasting Error Frequency Analyses for Operational Power System Studies: Preprint
The examination of wind power forecasting errors is crucial for optimal unit commitment and economic dispatch of power systems with significant wind power penetrations. This scheduling process includes both renewable and nonrenewable generators, and the incorporation of wind power forecasts will become increasingly important as wind fleets constitute a larger portion of generation portfolios. This research considers the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study database of wind power forecasts and numerical actualizations. This database comprises more than 30,000 locations spread over the western United States, with a total wind power capacity of 960 GW. Error analyses for individual sites and for specific balancing areas are performed using the database, quantifying the fit to theoretical distributions through goodness-of-fit metrics. Insights into wind-power forecasting error distributions are established for various levels of temporal and spatial resolution, contrasts made among the frequency distribution alternatives, and recommendations put forth for harnessing the results. Empirical data are used to produce more realistic site-level forecasts than previously employed, such that higher resolution operational studies are possible. This research feeds into a larger work of renewable integration through the links wind power forecasting has with various operational issues, such as stochastic unit commitment and flexible reserve level determination.
Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Milligan, M.
Analysis and Forecasting of Sea Ice Conditions with Three-Dimensional Variational Data Assimilation and a Coupled Ice�Ocean Model
A three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3DVAR) system has been developed to provide analyses of the ice�ocean state and to initialize a coupled ice�ocean numerical model for forecasting sea ice conditions. This study focuses on the ...
Alain Caya; Mark Buehner; Tom Carrieres
Ocean forecasting in terrain-following coordinates: Formulation and skill assessment of the Regional Ocean Modeling System
Systematic improvements in algorithmic design of regional ocean circulation models have led to significant enhancement in simulation ability across a wide range of space/time scales and marine system types. As an example, we briefly review the Regional ... Keywords: Biogeochemical cycles, Incompressible Navier-Stokes equations, Regional ocean prediction, Sea ice modeling, Split-explicit time stepping
D. B. Haidvogel; H. Arango; W. P. Budgell; B. D. Cornuelle; E. Curchitser; E. Di Lorenzo; K. Fennel; W. R. Geyer; A. J. Hermann; L. Lanerolle; J. Levin; J. C. McWilliams; A. J. Miller; A. M. Moore; T. M. Powell; A. F. Shchepetkin; C. R. Sherwood; R. P. Signell; J. C. Warner; J. Wilkin
The Emergence of Weather-Related Test Beds Linking Research and Forecasting Operations
Test beds have emerged as a critical mechanism linking weather research with forecasting operations. The U.S. Weather Research Program (USWRP) was formed in the 1990s to help identify key gaps in research related to major weather prediction problems and ...
F. Martin Ralph; Janet Intrieri; David Andra Jr.; Robert Atlas; Sid Boukabara; David Bright; Paula Davidson; Bruce Entwistle; John Gaynor; Steve Goodman; Jiann-Gwo Jiing; Amy Harless; Jin Huang; Gary Jedlovec; John Kain; Steven Koch; Bill Kuo; Jason Levit; Shirley Murillo; Lars Peter Riishojgaard; Timothy Schneider; Russell Schneider; Travis Smith; Steven Weiss
The Emergence of Weather-Related Testbeds Linking Research and Forecasting Operations
Testbeds have emerged as a critical mechanism linking weather research with forecasting operations. The U.S. Weather Research Program (USWRP) was formed in the 1990s to help identify key gaps in research related to major weather prediction problems and ...
F. Martin Ralph; Janet Intrieri; David Andra; Jr.; Robert Atlas; Sid Boukabara; David Bright; Paula Davidson; Bruce Entwistle; John Gaynor; Steve Goodman; Jiann-Gwo Jiing; Amy Harless; Jin Huang; Gary Jedlovec; John Kain; Steven Koch; Bill Kuo; Jason Levit; Shirley Murillo; Lars Peter Riishojgaard; Timothy Schneider; Russell Schneider; Travis Smith; Steven Weiss
Improving Ocean Model Initialization for Coupled Tropical Cyclone Forecast Models Using GODAE Nowcasts
To simulate tropical cyclone (TC) intensification, coupled ocean�atmosphere prediction models must realistically reproduce the magnitude and pattern of storm-forced sea surface temperature (SST) cooling. The potential for the ocean to support ...
G. R. Halliwell Jr.; L. K. Shay; S. D. Jacob; O. M. Smedstad; E. W. Uhlhorn
Volcanic Ash Forecast Transport And Dispersion (VAFTAD) Model
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Air Resources Laboratory (ARL) has developed a Volcanic Ash Forecast Transport And Dispersion (VAFTAD) model for emergency response use focusing on hazards to aircraft flight operations. ...
Jerome L. Heffter; Barbara J. B. Stunder
From Oceans to Farms: The Value of a Novel Statistical Climate Forecast for Agricultural Management
The economic value of seasonal climate forecasting is assessed using a whole-of-chain analysis. The entire system, from sea surface temperature (SST) through pasture growth and animal production to economic and resource outcomes, is examined. A ...
Peter C. McIntosh; Andrew J. Ash; Mark Stafford Smith
Hindcasting and Forecasting of the POLYMODE Data Set with the Harvard Open�Ocean Model
A regional quasi-geostrophic model has been used to hindcast and forecast the POLYMODE data set. After briefly discussing hindcast methodology, the hindcast fields are compared with the analyzed data set Periods of significant difference of ...
Leonard J. Walstad; Allan R. Robinson
Operational Implementation of the ISBA Land Surface Scheme in the Canadian Regional Weather Forecast Model. Part I: Warm Season Results
The summertime improvement resulting from the operational implementation of a new surface modeling and assimilation strategy into the Canadian regional weather forecasting system is described in this study. The surface processes over land are ...
St�phane B�lair; Louis-Philippe Crevier; Jocelyn Mailhot; Bernard Bilodeau; Yves Delage
Development of a Limited-Area Model for Operational Weather Forecasting around a Power Plant: The Need for Specialized Forecasts
A hydrostatic meteorological model, �PMETEO,� was developed for short-range forecasts for a high-resolution limited area located in the northwest region of Spain. Initial and lateral boundary conditions are externally provided by a coarse-mesh ...
C. F. Balseiro; M. J. Souto; E. Penabad; J. A. Souto; V. P�rez-Mu�uzuri
Integration of Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations
In this paper, a new approach to evaluate the uncertainty ranges for the required generation performance envelope, including the balancing capacity, ramping capability and ramp duration is presented. The approach includes three stages: statistical and actual data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of future grid balancing requirements for specified time horizons and confidence intervals. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on a histogram analysis incorporating all sources of uncertainty and parameters of a continuous (wind forecast and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and failures to start up) nature. Preliminary simulations using California Independent System Operator (CAISO) real life data have shown the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed approach.
Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Ma, Jian; Chakrabarti, Bhujanga B.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Loutan, Clyde; Guttromson, Ross T.
An Objective Clear-Air Turbulence Forecasting Technique: Verification and Operational Use
An objective technique for forecasting clear-air turbulence (CAT) is described. An index is calculated based on the product of horizontal deformation and vertical wind shear derived from numerical model forecast winds aloft. The forecast ...
Gary P. Ellrod; David I. Knapp
5.5 ENSEMBLE RE-FORECASTING : IMPROVING MEDIUM-RANGE FORECAST SKILL USING RETROSPECTIVE FORECASTS, Colorado 1. INTRODUCTION Improving weather forecasts is a primary goal of the U.S. National Oceanic predictions has been to improve the accuracy of the numerical forecast models. Much effort has been expended
Hamill, Tom
Price forecasting and optimal operation of wholesale customers in a competitive electricity market
c ? Hamidreza Zareipour 2006I hereby declare that I am the sole author of this thesis. This is a true copy of the thesis, including any required final revisions, as accepted by my examiners. I understand that my thesis may be made electronically available to the public. This thesis addresses two main issues: first, forecasting short-term electricity market prices; and second, the application of short-term electricity market price forecasts to operation planning of demand-side Bulk Electricity Market Customers (BEMCs). The Ontario electricity market is selected as the primary case market and its structure is studied in detail. A set of explanatory variable candidates is then selected accordingly, which may explain price behavior in this market. In the process of selecting the explanatory variable candidates, some important issues, such as direct or indirect effects of the variables on price behavior, availability of the variables before real-time, choice of appropriate forecasting horizon and market time-line, are taken into account. Price and demand in three neighboring electricity markets, namely, the New York, New England, and PJM electricity markets, are also considered among the explanatory variable candidates.
Hamidreza Zareipour
Incorporating Wind Generation Forecast Uncertainty into Power System Operation, Dispatch, and Unit Commitment Procedures
In this paper, an approach to evaluate the uncertainties of the balancing capacity, ramping capability, and ramp duration requirements is proposed. The approach includes three steps: forecast data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of grid balancing requirements for a specified time horizon and a given confidence level. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on histogram analysis, incorporating sources of uncertainty of both continuous (wind and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and start-up failures) nature. A new method called the "flying-brick" technique is developed to evaluate the look-ahead required generation performance envelope for the worst case scenario within a user-specified confidence level. A self-validation process is used to validate the accuracy of the confidence intervals. To demonstrate the validity of the developed uncertainty assessment methods and its impact on grid operation, a framework for integrating the proposed methods with an EMS system is developed. Demonstration through integration with an EMS system illustrates the applicability of the proposed methodology and the developed tool for actual grid operation and paves the road for integration with EMS systems from other vendors.
Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Ma, Jian; Subbarao, Krishnappa
Incorporating Uncertainty of Wind Power Generation Forecast into Power System Operation, Dispatch, and Unit Commitment Procedures
An approach to evaluate the uncertainties of the balancing capacity, ramping capability, and ramp duration requirements is proposed. The approach includes three steps: forecast data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of grid balancing requirements for a specified time horizon and a given confidence level. An assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on histogram analysis, incorporating sources of uncertainty - both continuous (wind and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and start-up failures). A new method called the 'flying-brick' technique is developed to evaluate the look-ahead required generation performance envelope for the worst case scenario within a user-specified confidence level. A self-validation process is used to validate the accuracy of the confidence intervals. To demonstrate the validity of the developed uncertainty assessment methods and its impact on grid operation, a framework for integrating the proposed methods with an EMS system is developed. Demonstration through EMS integration illustrates the applicability of the proposed methodology and the developed tool for actual grid operation and paves the road for integration with EMS systems in control rooms.
Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian; Huang, Zhenyu; Subbarao, Krishnappa
A Computational Web Portal for the Distributed Marine Environment Forecast System
This paper describes a prototype computational Web Portal for the Distributed Marine Environment Forecast System (DMEFS). DMEFS is a research framework to develop and operate validated Climate-Weather-Ocean models. The DMEFS portal is implemented as ...
Tomasz Haupt; Purushotham Bangalore; Gregory Henley
Validation of short and medium term operational solar radiation forecasts in the US
This paper presents a validation of the short and medium term global irradiance forecasts that are produced as part of the US data set. The short term forecasts that extend up to 6-h ahead are based upon cloud motion derived from consecutive geostationary satellite images. The medium term forecasts extend up to 6-days-ahead and are modeled from gridded cloud cover forecasts from the US National Digital Forecast Database. The forecast algorithms are validated against ground measurements for seven climatically distinct locations in the United States for 1 year. An initial analysis of regional performance using satellite-derived irradiances as a benchmark reference is also presented. (author)
Perez, Richard; Kivalov, Sergey; Schlemmer, James; Hemker, Karl Jr. [ASRC, University at Albany, Albany, New York (United States); Renne, David [National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, Colorado (United States); Hoff, Thomas E. [Clean Power Research, Napa, California (United States)
Comments on �An Operational Ingredients-Based Methodology for Forecasting Midlatitude Winter Season Precipitation�
Wetzel and Martin present an ingredients-based methodology for forecasting winter season precipitation. Although they are to be commended for offering a framework for winter-weather forecasting, disagreements arise with some of their specific ...
David M. Schultz; John V. Cortinas Jr.; Charles A. Doswell III
Mesoscale Forecasts Generated from Operational Numerical Weather-Prediction Model Output
A technique called Model Output Enhancement (MOE) has been developed for the generation and display of mesoscale weather forecasts. The MOE technique derives mesoscale or high-resolution (order of 1 km) weather forecasts from synoptic-scale ...
John G. W. Kelley; Joseph M. Russo; Toby N. Carlson; J. Ronald Eyton
Using the WRF Model in an Operational Streamflow Forecast System for the Jordan River
The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was employed to provide precipitation forecasts during the 2008/09 and 2009/10 winters (wet season) for Israel and the surrounding region where complex terrain dominates. The WRF precipitation ...
Amir Givati; Barry Lynn; Yubao Liu; Alon Rimmer
Explicit Cloud-Scale Models for Operational Forecasts: A Note of Caution
As computational capacity has increased, cloud-scale numerical models are slowly being modified from pure research tools to forecast tools. Previous studies that used cloud-scale models as explicit forecast tools, in much the same way as a ...
Kimberly L. Elmore; David J. Stensrud; Kenneth C. Crawford
Quantitative Flood Forecasting on Small- and Medium-Sized Basins: A Probabilistic Approach for Operational Purposes
The forecast of rainfall-driven floods is one of the main themes of analysis in hydrometeorology and a critical issue for civil protection systems. This work describes a complete hydrometeorological forecast system for small- and medium-sized ...
Francesco Silvestro; Nicola Rebora; Luca Ferraris
Wind and Wave Extremes over the World Oceans From Very Large Forecast Ensembles
Global return value estimates of significant wave height and 10-m neutral wind speed are estimated from very large aggregations of archived ECMWF ensemble forecasts at +240-h lead time from the period 2003-2012. The upper percentiles are found to match ENVISAT wind speed better than ERA-Interim (ERA-I), which tends to be biased low. The return estimates are significantly higher for both wind speed and wave height in the extratropics and the subtropics than what is found from ERA-I, but lower than what is reported by Caires and Sterl (2005) and Vinoth and Young (2011). The highest discrepancies between ERA-I and ENS240 are found in the hurricane-prone areas, suggesting that the ensemble comes closer than ERA-I in capturing the intensity of tropical cyclones. The width of the confidence intervals are typically reduced by 70% due to the size of the data sets. Finally, non-parametric estimates of return values were computed from the tail of the distribution. These direct return estimates compare very well with Ge...
Breivik, �yvind; Abdalla, Saleh; Bidlot, Jean-Raymond
www.cesos.ntnu.no Author Centre for Ships and Ocean Structures Offshore Wind Turbine Operation
1 www.cesos.ntnu.no Author Centre for Ships and Ocean Structures Offshore Wind Turbine Operation Structures Outline · Introduction · Wind Turbine Operational Conditions · Wind Turbine Operation under Atmospheric Icing · Wind Turbine Operation under Fault Condition · Conclusions www.cesos.ntnu.no M. Etemaddar
Nørvåg, Kjetil
Customization of the EPRI Artificial Neural Network Short-Term Load Forecaster (ANNSTLF) and User Support for the California Independent System Operator (CA-ISO)
Load forecasting is an important part of power system planning and operation. In the past, forecasting was achieved by extrapolating existing load data combined with other influencing factors. This method is no longer accurate enough. The Artificial Neural Network Short-Term Load Forecaster (ANNSTLF) is a tool for the quick and accurate prediction of hourly loads that provides the level of accuracy required by today's complex and competitive power markets. This report describes all the deliverables for t...
A Framework for Assessing Operational Madden�Julian Oscillation Forecasts: A CLIVAR MJO Working Group Project
The U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) MJO Working Group (MJOWG) has taken steps to promote the adoption of a uniform diagnostic and set of skill metrics for analyzing and assessing dynamical forecasts of the MJO. Here we ...
J. Gottschalck; M. Wheeler; K. Weickmann; F. Vitart; N. Savage; H. Lin; H. Hendon; D. Waliser; K. Sperber; M. Nakagawa; C. Prestrelo; M. Flatau; W. Higgins
Use of Seasonal Climate Forecasts in Rangeland-Based Livestock Operations in West Texas
The potential for west Texas ranchers to increase the profitability of their enterprises by becoming more proactive in their management practices by using seasonal climate forecasts is investigated using a focus group and ecological�economic ...
Kristi G. Jochec; James W. Mjelde; Andrew C. Lee; J. Richard Conner
Winter Weather Forecasting throughout the Eastern United States. Part II: An Operational Perspective of Cyclogenesis
The complex combination of synoptic and mesoscale interactions, topographic influences, and large population densities poses a multitude of challenging problems to winter weather forecasters throughout the eastern United States. Over the years, ...
James J. Gurka; Eugene P. Auciello; Anthony F. Gigi; Jeff S. Waldstreicher; Kermit K. Keeter; Steven Businger; Laurence G. Lee
Economic Evaluation of Short-Term Wind Power Forecasts in ERCOT: Preliminary Results; Preprint
Historically, a number of wind energy integration studies have investigated the value of using day-ahead wind power forecasts for grid operational decisions. These studies have shown that there could be large cost savings gained by grid operators implementing the forecasts in their system operations. To date, none of these studies have investigated the value of shorter-term (0 to 6-hour-ahead) wind power forecasts. In 2010, the Department of Energy and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration partnered to fund improvements in short-term wind forecasts and to determine the economic value of these improvements to grid operators, hereafter referred to as the Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP). In this work, we discuss the preliminary results of the economic benefit analysis portion of the WFIP for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas. The improvements seen in the wind forecasts are examined, then the economic results of a production cost model simulation are analyzed.
Orwig, K.; Hodge, B. M.; Brinkman, G.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.; Banunarayanan, V.; Nasir, S.; Freedman, J.
Development and Implementation of Wind-Generated Ocean Surface Wave Modelsat NCEP
A brief historical overview of numerical wind wave forecast modeling efforts at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) is presented, followed by an in-depth discussion of the new operational National Oceanic and Atmospheric ...
Hendrik L. Tolman; Bhavani Balasubramaniyan; Lawrence D. Burroughs; Dmitry V. Chalikov; Yung Y. Chao; Hsuan S. Chen; Vera M. Gerald
Improved Seasonal Precipitation Forecasts for the Asian Monsoon Using 16 Atmosphere�Ocean Coupled Models. Part I: Climatology
The goal of this study is to utilize several recent developments on rainfall data collection, downscaling of available climate models, training and forecasts from such models within the framework of a multimodel superensemble, and first a detailed ...
Vinay Kumar; T. N. Krishnamurti
The NCEP/FNMOC Combined Wave Ensemble Product: Expanding Benefits of Inter-Agency Probabilistic Forecasts to the Oceanic Environment
The US National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NOAA/NCEP) and the Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC) have joined forces to establish a first global multi-center ensemble system dedicated to probabilistic forecasts of wind-...
Jose-Henrique G. M. Alves; Paul Wittmann; Michael Sestak; Jessica Schauer; Scott Stripling; Natacha B. Bernier; Jamie McLean; Yung Chao; Arun Chawla; Hendrik Tolman; Glenn Nelson; Stephen Klotz
Improved Seasonal Climate Forecasts of the South Asian Summer Monsoon Using a Suite of 13 Coupled Ocean�Atmosphere Models
Several modeling studies have shown that the south Asian monsoon region has the lowest skill for seasonal forecasts compared with many other domains of the world. This paper demonstrates that a multimodel synthetic superensemble approach, when ...
Arindam Chakraborty; T. N. Krishnamurti
The Coastal Ocean Prediction Systems program: Understanding and managing our coastal ocean. Volume 2: Overview and invited papers
This document is a compilation of summaries of papers presented at the Coastal Ocean Prediction Systems workshop. Topics include; marine forecasting, regulatory agencies and regulations, research and application models, research and operational observing, oceanic and atmospheric data assimilation, and coastal physical processes.
Not Available
Wind Energy Management System EMS Integration Project: Incorporating Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations
The power system balancing process, which includes the scheduling, real time dispatch (load following) and regulation processes, is traditionally based on deterministic models. Since the conventional generation needs time to be committed and dispatched to a desired megawatt level, the scheduling and load following processes use load and wind and solar power production forecasts to achieve future balance between the conventional generation and energy storage on the one side, and system load, intermittent resources (such as wind and solar generation), and scheduled interchange on the other side. Although in real life the forecasting procedures imply some uncertainty around the load and wind/solar forecasts (caused by forecast errors), only their mean values are actually used in the generation dispatch and commitment procedures. Since the actual load and intermittent generation can deviate from their forecasts, it becomes increasingly unclear (especially, with the increasing penetration of renewable resources) whether the system would be actually able to meet the conventional generation requirements within the look-ahead horizon, what the additional balancing efforts would be needed as we get closer to the real time, and what additional costs would be incurred by those needs. To improve the system control performance characteristics, maintain system reliability, and minimize expenses related to the system balancing functions, it becomes necessary to incorporate the predicted uncertainty ranges into the scheduling, load following, and, in some extent, into the regulation processes. It is also important to address the uncertainty problem comprehensively by including all sources of uncertainty (load, intermittent generation, generators� forced outages, etc.) into consideration. All aspects of uncertainty such as the imbalance size (which is the same as capacity needed to mitigate the imbalance) and generation ramping requirement must be taken into account. The latter unique features make this work a significant step forward toward the objective of incorporating of wind, solar, load, and other uncertainties into power system operations. Currently, uncertainties associated with wind and load forecasts, as well as uncertainties associated with random generator outages and unexpected disconnection of supply lines, are not taken into account in power grid operation. Thus, operators have little means to weigh the likelihood and magnitude of upcoming events of power imbalance. In this project, funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), a framework has been developed for incorporating uncertainties associated with wind and load forecast errors, unpredicted ramps, and forced generation disconnections into the energy management system (EMS) as well as generation dispatch and commitment applications. A new approach to evaluate the uncertainty ranges for the required generation performance envelope including balancing capacity, ramping capability, and ramp duration has been proposed. The approach includes three stages: forecast and actual data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of future grid balancing requirements for specified time horizons and confidence levels. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on a histogram analysis, incorporating all sources of uncertainties of both continuous (wind and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and start-up failures) nature. A new method called the �flying brick� technique has been developed to evaluate the look-ahead required generation performance envelope for the worst case scenario within a user-specified confidence level. A self-validation algorithm has been developed to validate the accuracy of the confidence intervals.
Makarov, Yuri V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian; Guttromson, Ross T.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Chakrabarti, Bhujanga B.
Transition of the Coastal and Estuarine Storm Tide Model to an Operational Storm Surge Forecast Model: A Case Study of the Florida Coast
The operational forecast demands and constraints of the National Hurricane Center require that a storm surge model in research mode be tested against a benchmark model such as Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) for accuracy, ...
Keqi Zhang; Yuepeng Li; Huiqing Liu; Jamie Rhome; Cristina Forbes
Wind Energy Management System Integration Project Incorporating Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations
The power system balancing process, which includes the scheduling, real time dispatch (load following) and regulation processes, is traditionally based on deterministic models. Since the conventional generation needs time to be committed and dispatched to a desired megawatt level, the scheduling and load following processes use load and wind power production forecasts to achieve future balance between the conventional generation and energy storage on the one side, and system load, intermittent resources (such as wind and solar generation) and scheduled interchange on the other side. Although in real life the forecasting procedures imply some uncertainty around the load and wind forecasts (caused by forecast errors), only their mean values are actually used in the generation dispatch and commitment procedures. Since the actual load and intermittent generation can deviate from their forecasts, it becomes increasingly unclear (especially, with the increasing penetration of renewable resources) whether the system would be actually able to meet the conventional generation requirements within the look-ahead horizon, what the additional balancing efforts would be needed as we get closer to the real time, and what additional costs would be incurred by those needs. In order to improve the system control performance characteristics, maintain system reliability, and minimize expenses related to the system balancing functions, it becomes necessary to incorporate the predicted uncertainty ranges into the scheduling, load following, and, in some extent, into the regulation processes. It is also important to address the uncertainty problem comprehensively, by including all sources of uncertainty (load, intermittent generation, generators� forced outages, etc.) into consideration. All aspects of uncertainty such as the imbalance size (which is the same as capacity needed to mitigate the imbalance) and generation ramping requirement must be taken into account. The latter unique features make this work a significant step forward toward the objective of incorporating of wind, solar, load, and other uncertainties into power system operations. In this report, a new methodology to predict the uncertainty ranges for the required balancing capacity, ramping capability and ramp duration is presented. Uncertainties created by system load forecast errors, wind and solar forecast errors, generation forced outages are taken into account. The uncertainty ranges are evaluated for different confidence levels of having the actual generation requirements within the corresponding limits. The methodology helps to identify system balancing reserve requirement based on a desired system performance levels, identify system �breaking points�, where the generation system becomes unable to follow the generation requirement curve with the user-specified probability level, and determine the time remaining to these potential events. The approach includes three stages: statistical and actual data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of future grid balancing requirements for specified time horizons and confidence intervals. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on a histogram analysis incorporating all sources of uncertainty and parameters of a continuous (wind forecast and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and failures to start up) nature. Preliminary simulations using California Independent System Operator (California ISO) real life data have shown the effectiveness of the proposed approach. A tool developed based on the new methodology described in this report will be integrated with the California ISO systems. Contractual work is currently in place to integrate the tool with the AREVA EMS system.
Assimilation of Subsurface Thermal Data into a Simple Ocean Model for the Initialization of an Intermediate Tropical Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Forecast Model
An adjoint variational assimilation technique is used to assimilate observations of both the oceanic state and wind stress data into an intermediate coupled ENSO prediction model. This method of initialization is contrasted with the more usual ...
Richard Kleeman; Andrew M. Moore; Neville R. Smith
The Operational Implementation of a Great Lakes Wave Forecasting System at NOAA/NCEP
The development of a Great Lakes wave forecasting system at NOAA�s National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) is described. The system is an implementation of the WAVEWATCH III model, forced with atmospheric data from NCEP�s regional WRF ...
Jose-Henrique G. M. Alves; Arun Chawla; Hendrik L. Tolman; David Schwab; Gregory Lang; Greg Mann
Quantifying the Predictive Skill in Long-Range Forecasting. Part I: Coarse-Grained Predictions in a Simple Ocean Model
An information-theoretic framework is developed to assess the long-range coarse-grained predictive skill in a perfect-model environment. Central to the scheme is the notion that long-range forecasting involves regimes; specifically, that the ...
Dimitrios Giannakis; Andrew J. Majda
Decadal Predictability of the Atlantic Ocean in a Coupled GCM: Forecast Skill and Optimal Perturbations Using Linear Inverse Modeling
The decadal predictability of three-dimensional Atlantic Ocean anomalies is examined in a coupled global climate model [the third climate configuration of the Met Office Unified Model (HadCM3)] using a linear inverse modeling (LIM) approach. It ...
Ed Hawkins; Rowan Sutton
Antarctic Satellite Meteorology: Applications for Weather Forecasting
For over 30 years, weather forecasting for the Antarctic continent and adjacent Southern Ocean has relied on weather satellites. Significant advancements in forecasting skill have come via the weather satellite. The advent of the high-resolution ...
Matthew A. Lazzara; Linda M. Keller; Charles R. Stearns; Jonathan E. Thom; George A. Weidner
Management of supply chain: an alternative modelling technique for forecasting
Forecasting is a necessity almost in any operation. However, the tools of forecasting are still primitive in view
Datta, Shoumen
A critical evaluation of the upper ocean heat budget in the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis data for the south central equatorial Pacific
Coupled ocean-atmospheric models suffer from the common bias of a spurious rain belt south of the central equatorial Pacific throughout the year. Observational constraints on key processes responsible for this bias are scarce. The recently available reanalysis from a coupled model system for the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) data is a potential benchmark for climate models in this region. Its suitability for model evaluation and validation, however, needs to be established. This paper examines the mixed layer heat budget and the ocean surface currents - key factors for the sea surface temperature control in the double Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone in the central Pacific - from 5{sup o}S to 10{sup o}S and 170{sup o}E to 150{sup o}W. Two independent approaches are used. The first approach is through comparison of CFSR data with collocated station observations from field experiments; the second is through the residual analysis of the heat budget of the mixed layer. We show that the CFSR overestimates the net surface flux in this region by 23 W m{sup -2}. The overestimated net surface flux is mainly due to an even larger overestimation of shortwave radiation by 44 W m{sup -2}, which is compensated by a surface latent heat flux overestimated by 14 W m{sup -2}. However, the quality of surface currents and the associated oceanic heat transport in CFSR are not compromised by the surface flux biases, and they agree with the best available estimates. The uncertainties of the observational data from field experiments are also briefly discussed in the present study.
Liu H.; Lin W.; Liu, X.; Zhang, M.
SOLERAS - Solar-Powered Water Desalination Project at Yanbu: Forecasting models for operating and maintenance cost of the pilot plant
This study was conducted in cooperation with the Department of Industrial Engineering of King Abdulaziz University. The main objective of this study is to meet some of the goals of the Solar Energy Water Desalination Plant (SEWDP) plan in the area of economic evaluation. The first part of this project focused on describing the existing trend in the operation and maintenance (OandM) cost for the SOLERAS Solar Energy Water Desalination Plant in Yanbu. The second part used the information obtained on existing trends to find suitable forecasting models. These models, which are found here, are sensitive to changes in costs trends. Nevertheless, the study presented here has established the foundation for (OandM) costs estimating in the plant. The methodologies used in this study should continue as more data on operation and maintenance costs become available, because, in the long run, the trend in costs will help determine where cost effectiveness might be improved. 7 refs., 24 figs., 15 tabs.
Al-Idrisi, M.; Hamad, G.
Forecast Correlation Coefficient Matrix of Stock Returns in Portfolio Analysis
Unadjusted Forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Unadjusted Forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Zhao, Feng
An Evaluation of Precipitation Forecasts from Operational Models and Reanalyses Including Precipitation Variations Associated with MJO Activity
In this paper, the results of an examination of precipitation forecasts for 1�30-day leads from global models run at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) ...
John E. Janowiak; Peter Bauer; Wanqiu Wang; Phillip A. Arkin; Jon Gottschalck
The National Centers for Environmental Prediction: Operational Climate, Ocean, and Weather Prediction for the 21st Century
The National Meteorological Center is being restructured to serve a broader mission, which includes operational climate and ocean prediction as well as short-range weather prediction. Its successor organization is called the National Centers for ...
Ronald D. McPherson
Forecast Technical Document Forecast Types
Forecast Technical Document Forecast Types A document describing how different forecast types are implemented in the 2011 Production Forecast system. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley Halsall #12;PF2011 Forecast Types Background Different `types' of forecast are possible for a specified area
Evaluating Probabilistic Forecasts Using Information Theory
The problem of assessing the quality of an operational forecasting system that produces probabilistic forecasts is addressed using information theory. A measure of the quality of the forecasting scheme, based on the amount of a data compression ...
Mark S. Roulston; Leonard A. Smith
Virtual Floe Ice Drift Forecast Model Intercomparison
Both sea ice forecast models and methods to measure their skill are needed for operational sea ice forecasting. Two simple sea ice models are described and tested here. Four different measures of skill are also tested. The forecasts from the ...
Robert W. Grumbine
The Operational Mesogamma-Scale Analysis and Forecast System of the U.S. Army Test and Evaluation Command. Part III: Forecasting with Secondary-Applications Models
Output from the Army Test and Evaluation Command�s Four-Dimensional Weather System�s mesoscale model is used to drive secondary-applications models to produce forecasts of quantities of importance for daily decision making at U.S. Army test ...
Robert D. Sharman; Yubao Liu; Rong-Shyang Sheu; Thomas T. Warner; Daran L. Rife; James F. Bowers; Charles A. Clough; Edward E. Ellison
Using Customers' Reported Forecasts to Predict Future Sales
Using Customers' Reported Forecasts to Predict Future Sales Nihat Altintas , Alan Montgomery orders using forecasts provided by their customers. Our goal is to improve the supplier's operations through a better un- derstanding of the customers's forecast behavior. Unfortunately, customer forecasts
Murphy, Robert F.
Short-Range Ensemble Forecasts of Precipitation Type
Short-range ensemble forecasting is extended to a critical winter weather problem: forecasting precipitation type. Forecast soundings from the operational NCEP Short-Range Ensemble Forecast system are combined with five precipitation-type ...
Matthew S. Wandishin; Michael E. Baldwin; Steven L. Mullen; John V. Cortinas Jr.
Forecasting Techniques Utilized by the Forecast Branch of the National Meteorological Center During a Major Convective Rainfall Event
Meteorologists within the Forecast Branch (FB) of the National Meteorological Center (NMC) produce operational quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs). These manual forecasts are prepared utilizing various forecasting techniques, which are ...
Theodore W. Funk
A Comparison of Skill between Two Versions of the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) and CPC�s Operational Short-Lead Seasonal Outlooks
Analyses of the relative prediction skills of NOAA�s Climate Forecast System versions 1 and 2 (CFSv1 and CFSv2, respectively), and the NOAA/Climate Prediction Center�s (CPC) operational seasonal outlook, are conducted over the 15-yr common period ...
Peitao Peng; Anthony G. Barnston; Arun Kumar
Extreme wave events during hurricanes can seriously jeopardize the integrity and safety of offshore oil and gas operations in the Gulf of Mexico. Validation of wave forecast for
oil and gas operations in the Gulf of Mexico. Validation of wave forecast for significant wave heights over the warm Gulf of Mexico water between 26 and 28 August, and became a category 5 hurricane by 1200 OF WAVES AND CURRENTS IN HURRICANE KATRINA BY DONG-PING WANG AND LIE-YAUW OEY FIG. 1. The Gulf of Mexico
An All-Weather Observational Operator for Radiance Data Assimilation with Mesoscale Forecast Models
Assimilating satellite radiance data under all weather conditions remains an outstanding problem in numerical weather prediction. This study develops an observational operator for use in radiance assimilation under both clear and cloudy ...
Thomas J. Greenwald; Rolf Hertenstein; Tomislava Vuki?evi?
Operational Forecasting of Wind-Generated Waves by Hurricane Isabel at NCEP
The accuracy of the operational wave models at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) for sea states generated by Hurricane Isabel is assessed. The western North Atlantic (WNA) and the North Atlantic hurricane (NAH) wave models ...
Hendrik L. Tolman; Jose-Henrique G. M. Alves; Yung Y. Chao
An Operational Ingredients-Based Methodology for Forecasting Midlatitude Winter Season Precipitation
An ingredients-based methodology (IM) for the operational analysis and prediction of midlatitude winter season precipitation is developed. Diagnostics for five fundamental physical ingredients involved in the production of precipitation�forcing ...
Suzanne W. Wetzel; Jonathan E. Martin
Tropical Cyclone Formation Guidance Using Pregenesis Dvorak Climatology. Part I: Operational Forecasting and Predictive Potential
While there are a variety of modes for tropical cyclone (TC) development, there have been relatively few efforts to systematically catalog both nondeveloping and developing cases. This paper introduces an operationally derived climatology of ...
Joshua H. Cossuth; Richard D. Knabb; Daniel P. Brown; Robert E. Hart
Experimental Analysis of the Integration of Mixed Surveillance Frequency into Oceanic Air Operations
Technical capabilities for improved surveillance over the oceans are currently available through the use of satellites.
Forest, Laura Major
RACORO Forecasting
Weather Briefings Observed Weather Cloud forecasting models BUFKIT forecast soundings + guidance from Norman NWS enhanced pages and discussions NAM-WRF updated...
A novel knowledge discovery model for fishery forecasting
In the area of ocean fisheries research, a new research interest is to use marine environment factors for fishery forecasting. This paper proposes a novel knowledge discovery model for fishery forecasting that uses the Indian Ocean big-eye tuna fishery ... Keywords: extension data mining, fishery forecasting, fuzzy rules, support vector machines
Hongchun Yuan; Ying Li; Ying Chen
Southern hemisphere tropical cyclone intensity forecast methods used at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Part II: statistical � dynamical forecasts
The development and performance of a statistical- dynamical tropical cyclone intensity forecast model, which was developed for the United States of America�s Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), is described. This model, called the Southern Hemisphere Statistical Typhoon Intensity Prediction Scheme (SH STIPS), mirrors similar capabilities created for use in the western North Pacific and North Indian Ocean tropical cyclone basins. The model is created by fitting an optimal combination of factors related to climatology and persistence, intensification potential, vertical wind shear, dynamic size/intensity forecasts and atmospheric stability. All of these factors except the climatology and persistence information are derived from global forecast model analyses and forecasts. In July 2005 the SH STIPS model began a real-time evaluation period. The forecasts from the SH STIPS model have outperformed the combined climatology and persistence based forecast and thus are skillful in independent testing since that time. Since October 2006, SH STIPS has been the primary member in an operational consensus forecast of tropical cyclone intensity change provided to the JTWC. Documentation
John A. Knaff; Charles R. Sampson
Monthly Forecast of the Madden�Julian Oscillation Using a Coupled GCM
A set of five-member ensemble forecasts initialized daily for 48 days during the Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean�Atmosphere Response Experiment period are performed with the ECMWF monthly forecasting system in order to assess its ...
Fr�d�ric Vitart; Steve Woolnough; M. A. Balmaseda; A. M. Tompkins
The Feasibility of Estimating Ocean Surface Currents on an Operational Basis Using Satellite Feature Tracking Methods
The feasibility of using a relatively new technique, often referred to as satellite feature tracking, for estimating ocean surface currents is described. Sequential satellite imagery is used to determine the displacements of selected ocean ...
L. C. Breaker; D. B. Rao; V. M. Krasnopolsky; X-H. Yan
Controlling inventory by improving demand forecasting within the alcoholic beverage industry : a case study.
??This thesis explores how combing statistical demand forecasting methods and causal forecasting methods with judgmental forecasts via a Sales and Operation Planning process can improve� (more)
Deng, Xiaomu
Forecasting Forecast Skill
We have shown that it is possible to predict the skill of numerical weather forecasts�a quantity which is variable from day to day and region to region. This has been accomplished using as predictor the dispersion (measured by the average ...
Eugenia Kalnay; Amnon Dalcher
Experimental Dynamical Seasonal Forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Activity at IRI
The International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) has been issuing experimental seasonal tropical cyclone activity forecasts for several ocean basins since early 2003. In this paper the method used to obtain these forecasts is ...
Suzana J. Camargo; Anthony G. Barnston
Forecast Combinations
Forecast combinations have frequently been found in empirical studies to produce better forecasts on average than methods based on the ex-ante best individual forecasting model. Moreover, simple combinations that ignore correlations between forecast errors often dominate more refined combination schemes aimed at estimating the theoretically optimal combination weights. In this chapter we analyze theoretically the factors that determine the advantages from combining forecasts (for example, the degree of correlation between forecast errors and the relative size of the individual models� forecast error variances). Although the reasons for the success of simple combination schemes are poorly understood, we discuss several possibilities related to model misspecification, instability (non-stationarities) and estimation error in situations where thenumbersofmodelsislargerelativetothe available sample size. We discuss the role of combinations under asymmetric loss and consider combinations of point, interval and probability forecasts. Key words: Forecast combinations; pooling and trimming; shrinkage methods; model misspecification, diversification gains
Allan Timmermann; Jel Codes C
An Operational System for Predicting Hurricane-Generated Wind Waves in the North Atlantic Ocean
A new wind�wave prediction model, referred to as the North Atlantic hurricane (NAH) wave model, has been developed at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) to produce forecasts of hurricane-generated waves during the Atlantic ...
Yung Y. Chao; Jose-Henrique G. M. Alves; Hendrik L. Tolman
Using reforecasts for probabilistic forecast calibration
1 Using reforecasts for probabilistic forecast calibration Tom Hamill NOAA Earth System Research that is currently operational. #12;3 Why compute reforecasts? · For many forecast problems, such as long-lead forecasts or high-precipitation events, a few past forecasts may be insufficient for calibrating
An Operational Real-Time Ocean Sensor Network in the Gulf of Maine
The Gulf of Maine Ocean Observing System (GoMOOS) was established in the summer of 2001 as a prototype real-time observing system that now includes eleven solar-powered buoys with physical and optical sensors, four shore-based long-range HF radar surface ... Keywords: CODAR, GoMOOS, Gulf of Maine, Ocean Observing Systems, Sensor networks, neural networks, ocean optics, real-time
Neal R. Pettigrew; Collin S. Roesler; Francois Neville; Heather E. Deese
How Do Forecasters Utilize Output From A Convection-Permitting Ensemble Forecast System? Case Study Of A High-Impact Precipitation Event
The proliferation of ensemble forecast system output in recent years motivates this investigation into how operational forecasters utilize convection-permitting ensemble forecast system guidance in the forecast preparation process. A sixteen-...
Clark Evans; Donald F. Van Dyke; Todd Lericos
Quantifying the Predictive Skill in Long-Range Forecasting. Part II: Model Error in Coarse-Grained Markov Models with Application to Ocean-Circulation Regimes
An information-theoretic framework is developed to assess the predictive skill and model error in imperfect climate models for long-range forecasting. Here, of key importance is a climate equilibrium consistency test for detecting false predictive ...
Forecasting overview
Forecasting is required in many situations: deciding whether to build another power generation plant in the next five years requires forecasts of future demand; scheduling staff in a call centre next week requires forecasts of call volume; stocking an inventory requires forecasts of stock requirements. Forecasts can be required several years in advance (for the case of capital investments), or only a few minutes beforehand (for telecommunication routing). Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. Some things are easier to forecast than others. The time of the sunrise tomorrow morning can be forecast very precisely. On the other hand, currency exchange rates are very difficult to forecast with any accuracy. The predictability of an event or a quantity depends on how well we understand the factors that contribute to it, and how much unexplained variability is involved. Forecasting situations vary widely in their time horizons, factors determining actual outcomes, types of data patterns, and many other aspects. Forecasting methods can be very simple such as using the most recent observation as a forecast (which is called the �na�ve method�), or highly complex such as neural nets and econometric systems of simultaneous equations. The
Rob J Hyndman
Scoring Probabilistic Forecasts: The Importance of Being Proper
Questions remain regarding how the skill of operational probabilistic forecasts is most usefully evaluated or compared, even though probability forecasts have been a long-standing aim in meteorological forecasting. This paper explains the ...
Jochen Br�cker; Leonard A. Smith
Skill of Multimodel ENSO Probability Forecasts
The cross-validated hindcast skills of various multimodel ensemble combination strategies are compared for probabilistic predictions of monthly SST anomalies in the ENSO-related Ni�o-3.4 region of the tropical Pacific Ocean. Forecast data from ...
Michael K. Tippett; Anthony G. Barnston
Load Forecasting for Modern Distribution Systems
Load forecasting is a fundamental activity for numerous organizations and activities within a utility, including planning, operations, and control. Transmission and Distribution (T&D) planning and design engineers use the load forecast to determine whether any changes and additions are needed to the electric system to satisfy the anticipated load. Other load forecast users include system operations, financial ...
Operational Altimeter-Derived Oceanographic Information: The NORDA GEOSAT Ocean Applications Program
The U.S. Navy's GEOSAT active microwave altimeter provides detailed oceanographic and atmospheric information. It measures global oceanic wind speeds and significant wave height, sea ice edge in the polar regions, and dynamic topography related ...
Matthew Lybanon; Conrad H. Johnson; Pavel Pistek; Richard L. Crout
Forecaster Workstation Design: Concepts and Issues
Some basic ideas about designing a meteorological workstation for operational weather forecasting are presented, in part as a complement to the recently published discussion of workstation design by R. R. Hoffman. Scientific weather forecasting ...
Charles A. Doswell III
Evaluation of LFM-2 Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts
The results of a near real time experiment designed to assess the state of the art of quantitative precipitation forecasting skill of the operational NMC LFM-2 are described. All available LFM-2 quantitative precipitation forecasts were verified ...
Lance F. Bosart
Skill in Prediction of Explosive Cyclogenesis over the Western North Atlantic Ocean, 1987/88: A Forecast Checklist and NMC Dynamical Models
Analyses and predictions of explosive cyclogenesis over the western North Atlantic Ocean during the 1987/88 cold season were compared. The analyses were the manual and automated series produced at the National Meteorological Center (NMC). The ...
Frederick Sanders; Eugene P. Auciello
Short-Term Basin-Scale Streamflow Forecasting Using Large-Scale Coupled Atmospheric�Oceanic Circulation and Local Outgoing Longwave Radiation
This paper investigates the use of large-scale circulation patterns (El Ni�o�Southern Oscillation and the equatorial Indian Ocean Oscillation), local outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), and previous streamflow information for short-term (weekly) ...
Rajib Maity; S. S. Kashid
New Ozone Measurement Systems for Autonomous Operation on Ocean Buoys and Towers
Two autonomous ozone measurement systems for use on ocean buoys and towers have been built and are discussed herein. They are based on low-power atmospheric ozone sensors from Physical Sciences Inc. (PSI) and 2B Technologies. The PSI sensor ...
E. J. Hintsa; G. P. Allsup; C. F. Eck; D. S. Hosom; M. J. Purcell; A. A. Roberts; D. R. Scott; E. R. Sholkovitz; W. T. Rawlins; P. A. Mulhall; K. Lightner; W. W. McMillan; J. Song; M. J. Newchurch
Implications of Ensemble Quantitative Precipitation Forecast Errors on Distributed Streamflow Forecasting
Evaluating the propagation of errors associated with ensemble quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) into the ensemble streamflow response is important to reduce uncertainty in operational flow forecasting. In this paper, a multifractal ...
Giuseppe Mascaro; Enrique R. Vivoni; Roberto Deidda
Value of Wind Power Forecasting
This study, building on the extensive models developed for the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study (WWSIS), uses these WECC models to evaluate the operating cost impacts of improved day-ahead wind forecasts.
Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Jordan, G.; Piwko, R.
Dynamical, Statistical�Dynamical, and Multimodel Ensemble Forecasts of Australian Spring Season Rainfall
The prediction skill of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology dynamical seasonal forecast model Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA) is assessed for probabilistic forecasts of spring season rainfall in Australia and the ...
Eun-Pa Lim; Harry H. Hendon; David L. T. Anderson; Andrew Charles; Oscar Alves
Shootout-89, A Comparative Evaluation of Knowledge-based Systems That Forecast Severe Weather
During the summer of 1989, the Forecast Systems Laboratory of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration sponsored an evaluation of artificial-intelligence-based systems that forecast severe convective storms. The evaluation experiment, ...
W. R. Moninger; C. Lusk; W. F. Roberts; J. Bullas; Bde Lorenzis; J. C. McLeod; E. Ellison; J. Flueck; P. D. Lampru; K. C. Young; J. Weaver; R. S. Philips; R. Shaw; T. R. Stewart; S. M. Zubrick
Explosive Cyclogenesis over the West-Central North Atlantic Ocean, 1981�84. Part II. Evaluation of LFM Model Performance
A study was made of the performance of the Limited-Area Fine-Mesh (LFM) operational forecasts for cases of explosive cyclogenesis in the west-central North Atlantic Ocean during 1981�84. For 51 instances in which the observed 12-h deepening was ...
Frederick Sanders
Solar forecasting review
of Solar Forecasting . . . . . . . . . 2.4.1 Solarbudget at the foundation of satellite based forecastingWeather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model 7.1 Global
Inman, Richard Headen
Correction and commentary for "Ocean forecasting in terrain-following coordinates: Formulation and skill assessment of the regional ocean modeling system" by Haidvogel et al., J. Comp. Phys. 227, pp. 3595-3624
Although our names appear as co-authors in the above article (Haidvogel et al. (2008) [1], hereafter H2008), we were not aware of its existence until after it was published. In reading the article, we discovered that a significant portion of it (~40%, ... Keywords: Conservation and constancy preservation, Regional ocean modeling, Split-explicit time stepping, Terrain-following coordinates
Alexander F. Shchepetkin; James C. McWilliams
NFI Forecasts Methodology NFI Forecasts Methodology
NFI Forecasts Methodology NFI Forecasts Methodology Overview Issued by: National Forest email@example.com Website: www.forestry.gov.uk/inventory 1 NFI Softwood Forecasts Methodology Overview #12;NFI Forecasts ........................................................................................................4 Rationale behind the new approach to the GB Private sector production forecast ........4 Volume
Forecast Technical Document Restocking in the Forecast
Forecast Technical Document Restocking in the Forecast A document describing how restocking of felled areas is handled in the 2011 Production Forecast. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley in the forecast Background During the period of a production forecast it is assumed that, as forest sub
> BUREAU HOME > AUSTRALIA > QUEENSLAND > FORECASTS BRISBANE FORECAST IMPROVEMENTS The Bureau of Meteorology is progressively upgrading its forecast system to provide more detailed forecasts across Australia. From October 2013 new and improved 7 day forecasts will be introduced for Brisbane, Gold Coast
Greenslade, Diana
Customization and Marketing of Monsoon Forecasts A CSIRCMMACS Synergy
Customization and Marketing of Monsoon Forecasts A CSIRCMMACS Synergy Criteria for Technical forecasts of monsoon can significantly aid many sectors like agriculture, power and production industries to the operational forecast, to develop and deliver customized monsoon forecasts based on user need is required
Swathi, P S
Another Approach to Forecasting Forecast Skill
The skill of a medium-range numerical forecast can fluctuate widely from day to day. Providing an a priori estimate of the skill of the forecast is therefore important. Existing approaches include Monte Carlo Forecasting and Lagged Average ...
W. Y. Chen
Variability in Skill in 120 h FNOC 500 mb Height Forecasts
The variability of the 120 h 500 mb height forecasts of the Navy's Operational global model was examined for two winters. The forecasts displayed evidence of marked variability in the quality of forecasts as measured by anomaly correlations ...
J. Curtis; J. S. Boyle; C. H. Wash
Characteristics of Climate Forecast Quality: implications for Economic Value to Midwestern Corn Producers
Using a conceptual forecasting format that is similar to some in current operational use, trade-offs between climate forecast quality and economic value are examined from the perspective of the forecast user. Various scenarios for climate ...
James W. Mjelde; Derrell S. Peel; Steven T. Sonka; Peter J. Lamb
To forecast short-term load in electric power system based on FNN
Electric power system load forecasting plays an important part in the Energy Management System (EMS), which has a great effect on the operating, controlling and planning of power system. Accurate load forecasting, especially short-term load forecasting, ...
Yueli Hu; Huijie Ji; Xiaolong Song
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ELECTRICITY DEMAND FORECAST COMPARISON REPORT STAFFREPORT June 2005 ..............................................................................3 Residential Forecast Comparison ..............................................................................................5 Nonresidential Forecast Comparisons
Explosive East Coast Cyclogenesis over the West-Central North Atlantic Ocean: A Composite Study Derived from ECMWF Operational Analyses
This paper describes the observational aspects of explosive East Coast cyclogenesis using composites constructed from the daily global analyses generated and archived by the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). An ...
John Manobianco
Results of scoping tests for open-cycle OTEC (ocean thermal energy conversion) components operating with seawater
This report presents comprehensive documentation of the experimental research conducted on open-cycle ocean thermal energy conversion (OC-OTEC) components operating with seawater as a working fluid. The results of this research are presented in the context of previous analysis and fresh-water testing; they provide a basis for understanding and predicting with confidence the performance of all components of an OC-OTEC system except the turbine. Seawater tests have confirmed the results that were obtained in fresh-water tests and predicted by the analytical models of the components. A sound technical basis has been established for the design of larger systems in which net power will be produced for the first time from OC-OTEC technology. Design and operation of a complete OC-OTEC system that produces power will provide sufficient confidence to warrant complete transfer of OC-OTEC technology to the private sector. Each components performance is described in a separate chapter written by the principal investigator responsible for technical aspects of the specific tests. Chapters have been indexed separately for inclusion on the data base.
Zangrando, F; Bharathan, D; Green, H J; Link, H F; Parsons, B K; Parsons, J M; Pesaran, A A [Solar Energy Research Inst., Golden, CO (USA); Panchal, C B [Argonne National Lab., IL (USA)
The Forecast Gap: Linking Forwards and Forecasts
This report addresses a common problem in price forecasting: What to do when confronted with a persistent gap between results obtained from a structural forecast model and actual forward or spot prices? The report examines examples taken from natural gas and electric power forecasts and presents a novel approach to closing this �forecast gap.� Inspection reveals that the ratio of actual prices to forecast prices often exhibits stochastic movements that resemble those of commodity price movements. By usin...
Shipping source level estimation for ambient noise forecasting
The ability to accurately estimate shipping source levels from ambient noise data is an essential step towards creating a forecast model of the ocean soundscape. Source level estimates can be obtained by solving the system of linear equations
Jeffrey S. Rogers; Steven L. Means; Stephen C. Wales
A Multiseason Climate Forecast System at the National Meteorological Center
The Coupled Model Project was established at the National Meteorological Center(NMC)in January l991 to develop a multiseason forecast system based on coupled ocean atmosphere general circulation models. This provided a focus to combine expertise ...
Ming Ji; Arun Kumar; Ants Leetmaa
Forecast Prices
Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)
Notes: Notes: Prices have already recovered from the spike, but are expected to remain elevated over year-ago levels because of the higher crude oil prices. There is a lot of uncertainty in the market as to where crude oil prices will be next winter, but our current forecast has them declining about $2.50 per barrel (6 cents per gallon) from today's levels by next October. U.S. average residential heating oil prices peaked at almost $1.50 as a result of the problems in the Northeast this past winter. The current forecast has them peaking at $1.08 next winter, but we will be revisiting the outlook in more detail next fall and presenting our findings at the annual Winter Fuels Conference. Similarly, diesel prices are also expected to fall. The current outlook projects retail diesel prices dropping about 14 cents per gallon
Development and Validation of an Operational Search and Rescue Modeling System for the Yellow Sea and the East & South China Seas
An operational search and rescue (SAR) modeling system was developed to forecast the tracks of victims or debris from marine accidents in the marginal seas of the Northwestern Pacific Ocean. The system is directly linked to a real-time operational ...
Kyoung-Ho Cho; Yan Li; Hui Wang; Kwang-Soon Park; Jin-Yong Choi; Kwang-Il Shin; Jae-Il Kwon
Empirical Correction of the NCEP Global Forecast System
This paper examines the extent to which an empirical correction method can improve forecasts of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) operational Global Forecast System. The empirical correction is based on adding a forcing ...
Xiaosong Yang; Timothy DelSole; Hua-Lu Pan
Using Wind Anomalies to Forecast East Coast Winter Storms
Forecasting major winter storms is a critical function for all weather services. Conventional model-derived fields from numerical weather prediction models most frequently utilized by operational forecasters, such as pressure level geopotential ...
Neil A. Stuart; Richard H. Grumm
The Canadian Regional Data Assimilation and Forecasting System
This paper describes the recent changes to the regional data assimilation and forecasting system at the Canadian Meteorological Center. A major aspect is the replacement of the currently operational global variable resolution forecasting approach ...
Luc Fillion; Monique Tanguay; Ervig Lapalme; Bertrand Denis; Michel Desgagne; Vivian Lee; Nils Ek; Zhuo Liu; Manon Lajoie; Jean-Fran�ois Caron; Christian Pag�
Forecasting the 12�14 March 1993 Superstorm
This paper describes the decision-making process used by the forecasters in the National Meteorological Center's Meteorological Operations Division and in Weather Forecast Offices of the National Weather Service to provide the successful ...
Louis W. Uccellini; Paul J. Kocin; Russell S. Schneider; Paul M. Stokols; Russell A. Dorr
Potential to Improve Forecasting Accuracy: Advances in Supply Chain Management
Forecasting is a necessity almost in any operation. However, the tools of forecasting are still primitive in view of the great strides made by research and the increasing abundance of data made possible by automatic ...
River Forecast Application for Water Management: Oil and Water?
Managing water resources generally and managing reservoir operations specifically have been touted as opportunities for applying forecasts to improve decision making. Previous studies have shown that the application of forecasts into water ...
Kevin Werner; Kristen Averyt; Gigi Owen
Short-Term Forecast Validation of Six Models
The short-term forecast accuracy of six different forecast models over the western United States is described for January, February, and March 1996. Four of the models are operational products from the National Centers for Environmental ...
Bryan G. White; Jan Paegle; W. James Steenburgh; John D. Horel; Robert T. Swanson; Louis K. Cook; Daryl J. Onton; John G. Miles
Forecasting in Meteorology
Public weather forecasting heralded the beginning of modern meteorology less than 150 years ago. Since then, meteorology has been largely a forecasting discipline. Thus, forecasting could have easily been used to test and develop hypotheses, ...
C. S. Ramage
A Reanalysis of Ocean Climate Using Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA)
This paper describes the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) reanalysis of ocean climate variability. In the assimilation, a model forecast produced by an ocean general circulation model with an average resolution of 0.25� � 0.4� � 40 levels is ...
James A. Carton; Benjamin S. Giese
The NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis
The NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) was completed for the 31-yr period from 1979 to 2009, in January 2010. The CFSR was designed and executed as a global, high-resolution coupled atmosphere�ocean�land surface�sea ice system to ...
Suranjana Saha; Shrinivas Moorthi; Hua-Lu Pan; Xingren Wu; Jiande Wang; Sudhir Nadiga; Patrick Tripp; Robert Kistler; John Woollen; David Behringer; Haixia Liu; Diane Stokes; Robert Grumbine; George Gayno; Jun Wang; Yu-Tai Hou; Hui-Ya Chuang; Hann-Ming H. Juang; Joe Sela; Mark Iredell; Russ Treadon; Daryl Kleist; Paul Van Delst; Dennis Keyser; John Derber; Michael Ek; Jesse Meng; Helin Wei; Rongqian Yang; Stephen Lord; Huug Van Den Dool; Arun Kumar; Wanqiu Wang; Craig Long; Muthuvel Chelliah; Yan Xue; Boyin Huang; Jae-Kyung Schemm; Wesley Ebisuzaki; Roger Lin; Pingping Xie; Mingyue Chen; Shuntai Zhou; Wayne Higgins; Cheng-Zhi Zou; Quanhua Liu; Yong Chen; Yong Han; Lidia Cucurull; Richard W. Reynolds; Glenn Rutledge; Mitch Goldberg
A spatially distributed flash flood forecasting model
This paper presents a distributed model that is in operational use for forecasting flash floods in northern Austria. The main challenge in developing the model was parameter identification which was addressed by a modelling strategy that involved a model ... Keywords: Distributed modelling, Dominant processes concept, Floods, Forecasting, Kalman Filter, Model accuracy, Parameter identification, Stream routing
G�nter Bl�schl; Christian Reszler; J�rgen Komma
The NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2
The second version of the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) was made operational at NCEP in March 2011. This version has upgrades to nearly all aspects of the data assimilation and forecast model components of the system. A coupled Reanalysis ...
Suranjana Saha; Shrinivas Moorthi; Xingren Wu; Jiande Wang; Sudhir Nadiga; Patrick Tripp; David Behringer; Yu-Tai Hou; Hui-ya Chuang; Mark Iredell; Michael Ek; Jesse Meng; Rongqian Yang; Malaqu�as Pe�a Mendez; Huug van den Dool; Qin Zhang; Wanqiu Wang; Mingyue Chen; Emily Becker
Evaluating the Cloud Cover Forecast of NCEP Global Forecast System with Satellite Observation
To assess the quality of daily cloud cover forecast generated by the operational global numeric model, the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS), we compose a large sample with outputs from GFS model and satellite observations from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) in the period of July 2004 to June 2008, to conduct a quantitative and systematic assessment of the performance of a cloud model that covers a relatively long range of time, basic cloud types, and in a global view. The evaluation has revealed the goodness of the model forecast, which further illustrates our completeness on understanding cloud generation mechanism. To quantity the result, we found a remarkably high correlation between the model forecasts and the satellite observations over the entire globe, with mean forecast error less than 15% in most areas. Considering a forecast within 30% difference to the observation to be a "good" one, we find that the probability for the GFS model to make good forecasts varies between...
Ye, Quanzhi
Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast Introduction..................................................................................................................................... 1
Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast Introduction................................................................................................................................. 3 Price Forecasts............................................................................................................................... 12 Oil Price Forecast Range
An Example of Hurricane Tracking and Forecasting with a Global Analysis-Forecasting System
The tracking of Hurricane Elena by the ECMWF operational analysis system is compared with reported positions from reconnaissance aircraft and coastal radar. An example forecast is shown for the operational model and also for an experimental ...
W. A. Heckley; M. J. Miller; A. K. Betts
Power load forecasting Organization: Huizhou Electric Power, P. R. China
, regression, artificial intelligence. 1. Introduction Accurate models for electric power load forecasting are essential to the operation and planning of a utility company. Load forecasting helps an electric utility as electric load forecasting. In particular, ARMA (autoregressive moving average), ARIMA (autore- gressive
Application of the NCEP Ensemble Prediction System to Medium-Range Forecasting in South Africa: New Products, Benefits, and Challenges
The National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Ensemble Forecasting System (EFS) is used operationally in South Africa for medium-range forecasts up to 14 days ahead. The use of model-generated probability forecasts has a clear benefit ...
Warren J. Tennant; Zoltan Toth; Kevin J. Rae
Wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets.
Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts.
Botterud, A.; Wang, J.; Miranda, V.; Bessa, R. J.; Decision and Information Sciences; INESC Porto
Wind power forecasting in U.S. Electricity markets
Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts. (author)
Botterud, Audun; Wang, Jianhui; Miranda, Vladimiro; Bessa, Ricardo J.
Forecasts, Meteorology Services, Environmental Sciences Department
Forecasts Short Term Forecast Suffolk County Northern Nassau Southern Nassau Area Forecast Discussion - OKX Area Forecast Discussion - NYS Area Forecast Discussion Mount Holly Area...
Scientific Verification of Deterministic River Stage Forecasts
One element of a complete verification system is the ability to determine why forecasts behave as they do. This paper describes and demonstrates an operationally feasible method for conducting this type of diagnostic verification analysis. ...
Edwin Welles; Soroosh Sorooshian
Optimization of Value of Aerodrome Forecasts
Prediction of short-term variations of vital boundary layer conditions at airports, such as visibility and cloud base, is important to the safe and economic operation of airlines. Results of an experiment involving groups of forecasters at three ...
Ross Keith
Airborne Volcanic Ash Forecast Area Reliability
In support of aircraft flight safety operations, daily comparisons between modeled, hypothetical, volcanic ash plumes calculated with meteorological forecasts and analyses were made over a 1.5-yr period. The Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian ...
Barbara J. B. Stunder; Jerome L. Heffter; Roland R. Draxler
ANL Wind Power Forecasting and Electricity Markets | Open Energy
Open Energy Info (EERE)
ANL Wind Power Forecasting and Electricity Markets ANL Wind Power Forecasting and Electricity Markets Jump to: navigation, search Logo: Wind Power Forecasting and Electricity Markets Name Wind Power Forecasting and Electricity Markets Agency/Company /Organization Argonne National Laboratory Partner Institute for Systems and Computer Engineering of Porto (INESC Porto) in Portugal, Midwest Independent System Operator and Horizon Wind Energy LLC, funded by U.S. Department of Energy Sector Energy Focus Area Wind Topics Pathways analysis, Technology characterizations Resource Type Software/modeling tools Website http://www.dis.anl.gov/project References Argonne National Laboratory: Wind Power Forecasting and Electricity Markets[1] Abstract To improve wind power forecasting and its use in power system and electricity market operations Argonne National Laboratory has assembled a team of experts in wind power forecasting, electricity market modeling, wind farm development, and power system operations.
A History of Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Skill
The tropical cyclone (TC) track forecasting skill of operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) models and their consensus is examined for the western North Pacific from 1992 to 2002. The TC track forecasting skill of the operational NWP ...
James S. Goerss; Charles R. Sampson; James M. Gross
The Limited-Area Forecast Systems at the Central Weather Bureau in Taiwan
The Central Weather Bureau (CWB) in Taipei, Republic of China has entered the era of operational numerical weather prediction with the complete online operations of a Global Forecast System (GFS) and the Limited-Area Forecast Systems (LAFS). A ...
Bao-Fong Jeng; Hway-Jen Chen; Shwu-Ching Lin; Tzay-Ming Leou; Melinda S. Peng; Simon W. Chang; Wu-Ron Hsu; C.-P. Chang
Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions | Department of Energy
in advance, allowing grid operators to predict expected wind power production. Accurate weather forecasts are critical for making energy sources -- including wind and solar --...
Products and Service of Center for Weather Forecast and Climate Studies
LOG O Products and Service of Center for Weather Forecast and Climate Studies Simone Sievert da (INPE) #12;Talk Outline CPTEC/INPE Operational Forecast Systems (time scales) Modeling Forecast-Brazil Space Sector Workshop, São José dos Campos 26 - 27 August. 2010 CPTEC: Forecasting Modeling Scales Time
Ocean Eddy Dynamics in a Coupled Ocean�Atmosphere Model
The role of mesoscale oceanic eddies is analyzed in a quasigeostrophic coupled ocean�atmosphere model operating at a large Reynolds number. The model dynamics are characterized by decadal variability that involves nonlinear adjustment of the ...
P. Berloff; W. Dewar; S. Kravtsov; J. McWilliams
Seasonal Prediction of Thermal Stress Accumulation for Coral Bleaching in the Tropical Oceans
Mass coral bleaching, associated with anomalously warm ocean temperatures over large regions, poses a serious threat to the future health of the world coral reef systems. Seasonal forecasts from coupled ocean�atmosphere models can be a valuable ...
C. M. Spillman; O. Alves; D. A. Hudson
An Ocean Observing and Prediction Experiment in Prince William Sound, Alaska
The observing and forecasting conditions of coastal oceans in Alaska is technically challenging because of the mountainous terrain, the notoriously stormy seas, and a complex hydrological system of freshwater from rivers and glaciers. The Alaska Ocean ...
G. Carl Schoch; Yi Chao; Francois Colas; John Farrara; Molly McCammon; Peter Olsson; Gaurav Singhal
Interannual to Decadal Predictability in a Coupled Ocean�Atmosphere General Circulation Model
The predictability of the coupled ocean�atmosphere climate system on interannual to decadal timescales has been studied by means of ensemble forecast experiments with a global coupled ocean�atmosphere general circulation model. Over most parts of ...
A. Gr�tzner; M. Latif; A. Timmermann; R. Voss
Multivariate Error Covariance Estimates by Monte Carlo Simulation for Assimilation Studies in the Pacific Ocean
One of the most difficult aspects of ocean-state estimation is the prescription of the model forecast error covariances. The paucity of ocean observations limits our ability to estimate the covariance structures from model�observation ...
Anna Borovikov; Michele M. Rienecker; Christian L. Keppenne; Gregory C. Johnson
The Operational Mesogamma-Scale Analysis and Forecast System of the U.S. Army Test and Evaluation Command. Part I: Overview of the Modeling System, the Forecast Products, and How the Products Are Used
Given the rapid increase in the use of operational mesoscale models to satisfy different specialized needs, it is important for the community to share ideas and solutions for meeting the many associated challenges that encompass science, ...
Yubao Liu; Thomas T. Warner; James F. Bowers; Laurie P. Carson; Fei Chen; Charles A. Clough; Christopher A. Davis; Craig H. Egeland; Scott F. Halvorson; Terrence W. Huck Jr.; Leo Lachapelle; Robert E. Malone; Daran L. Rife; Rong-Shyang Sheu; Scott P. Swerdlin; Dean S. Weingarten
Verifying Forecasts Spatially
Numerous new methods have been proposed for using spatial information to better quantify and diagnose forecast performance when forecasts and observations are both available on the same grid. The majority of the new spatial verification methods can be ...
Eric Gilleland; David A. Ahijevych; Barbara G. Brown; Elizabeth E. Ebert
Forecasting of Supercooled Clouds
Using parameterizations of cloud microphysics, a technique to forecast supercooled cloud events is suggested. This technique can be coupled on the mesoscale with a prognostic equation for cloud water to improve aircraft icing forecasts. The ...
Andr� Tremblay; Anna Glazer; Wanda Szyrmer; George Isaac; Isztar Zawadzki
Precipitation Forecasting Using Doppler Radar Data, a Cloud Model with Adjoint, and the Weather Research and Forecasting Model: Real Case Studies during SoWMEX in Taiwan
The quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) capability of the Variational Doppler Radar Analysis System (VDRAS) is investigated in the Taiwan area, where the complex topography and surrounding oceans pose great challenges to accurate rainfall ...
Sheng-Lun Tai; Yu-Chieng Liou; Juanzhen Sun; Shao-Fan Chang; Min-Chao Kuo
Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions: An International Comparison; Preprint
Wind power forecasting is expected to be an important enabler for greater penetration of wind power into electricity systems. Because no wind forecasting system is perfect, a thorough understanding of the errors that do occur can be critical to system operation functions, such as the setting of operating reserve levels. This paper provides an international comparison of the distribution of wind power forecasting errors from operational systems, based on real forecast data. The paper concludes with an assessment of similarities and differences between the errors observed in different locations.
Hodge, B. M.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Holttinen, H.; Sillanpaa, S.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Scharff, R.; Soder, L.; Larsen, X. G.; Giebel, G.; Flynn, D.; Dobschinski, J.
Time Series and Forecasting
Time Series and Forecasting. Leigh, Stefan and Perlman, S. (1991). "An Index for Comovement of Time Sequences With ...
Forecast Technical Document Volume Increment
Forecast Technical Document Volume Increment Forecasts A document describing how volume increment is handled in the 2011 Production Forecast. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley Halsall #12;PF2011 Volume increment forecasts Background A volume increment forecast is a fundamental output of the forecast
The VAMOS Ocean-Cloud-Atmosphere-Land Study Regional Experiment (VOCALS-REx): Goals, platforms, and field operations
The VAMOS Ocean-Cloud-Atmosphere-Land Study Regional Experiment (VOCALS-REx) was an international field program designed to make observations of poorly understood but critical components of the coupled climate system of the southeast Pacific. This region is characterized by strong coastal upwelling, the coolest SSTs in the tropical belt, and is home to the largest subtropical stratocumulus deck on Earth. The field intensive phase of VOCALS-REx took place during October and November 2008 and constitutes a critical part of a broader CLIVAR program (VOCALS) designed to develop and promote scientific activities leading to improved understanding, model simulations, and predictions of the southeastern Pacific (SEP) coupled ocean-atmosphere-land system, on diurnal to interannual timescales. The other major components of VOCALS are a modeling program with a model hierarchy ranging from the local to global scales, and a suite of extended observations from regular research cruises, instrumented moorings, and satellites. The two central themes of VOCALS-REx focus upon (a) links between aerosols, clouds and precipitation and their impacts on marine stratocumulus radiative properties, and (b) physical and chemical couplings between the upper ocean and the lower atmosphere, including the role that mesoscale ocean eddies play. A set of hypotheses designed to be tested with the combined field, monitoring and modeling work in VOCALS is presented here. A further goal of VOCALS-REx is to provide datasets for the evaluation and improvement of large-scale numerical models. VOCALS-REx involved five research aircraft, two ships and two surface sites in northern Chile. We describe the instrument payloads and key mission strategies for these platforms and give a summary of the missions conducted.
Wood, R.; Springston, S.; Mechoso, C. R.; Bretherton, C. S.; A.Weller, R.; Huebert, B.; Straneo, F.; Albrecht, B. A.; Coe, H.; Allen, G.; Vaughan, G.; Daum, P.; Fairall, C.; Chand, D.; Klenner, L. G.; Garreaud, R.; Grados, C.; Covert, D. S.; Bates, T. S.; Krejci, R.; Russell, L. M.; Szoeke, S. d.; Brewer, A.; Yuter, S. E.; Chaigneau, A.; Toniazzo, T.; Minnis, P.; Palikonda, R.; Abel, S. J.; Brown, W. O. J.; Williams, S.; Fochesatto, J.; Brioude, J.; Bower, K. N
Bias Correction and Forecast Skill of NCEP GFS Ensemble Week-1 and Week-2 Precipitation, 2-m Surface Air Temperature, and Soil Moisture Forecasts
A simple bias correction method was used to correct daily operational ensemble week-1 and week-2 precipitation and 2-m surface air temperature forecasts from the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS). The study shows some unexpected and striking ...
Yun Fan; Huug van den Dool
Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site
Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions July 20, 2011 - 6:30pm Addthis Stan Calvert Wind Systems Integration Team Lead, Wind & Water Power Program What does this project do? It will increase the accuracy of weather forecast models for predicting substantial changes in winds at heights important for wind energy up to six hours in advance, allowing grid operators to predict expected wind power production. Accurate weather forecasts are critical for making energy sources -- including wind and solar -- dependable and predictable. These forecasts also play an important role in reducing the cost of renewable energy by allowing electricity grid operators to make timely decisions on what reserve generation they need to operate their systems.
The Strategy of Professional Forecasting
This paper develops and compares two theories of strategic behavior of professional forecasters. The first theory posits that forecasters compete in a forecasting contest with pre-specified rules. In equilibrium of a winner-take-all contest, forecasts are excessively differentiated. According to the alternative reputational cheap talk theory, forecasters aim at convincing the market that they are well informed. The market evaluates their forecasting talent on the basis of the forecasts and the realized state. If the market expects forecaster honesty, forecasts are shaded toward the prior mean. With correct market expectations, equilibrium forecasts are imprecise but not shaded.
Marco Ottaviani; Peter Norman S�rensen
Value of Probabilistic Weather Forecasts: Assessment by Real-Time Optimization of Irrigation Scheduling
This paper presents a modeling framework for real-time decision support for irrigation scheduling using the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA's) probabilistic rainfall forecasts. The forecasts and their probability distributions are incorporated into a simulation-optimization modeling framework. In this study, modeling irrigation is determined by a stochastic optimization program based on the simulated soil moisture and crop water-stress status and the forecasted rainfall for the next 1-7 days. The modeling framework is applied to irrigated corn in Mason County, Illinois. It is found that there is ample potential to improve current farmers practices by simply using the proposed simulation-optimization framework, which uses the present soil moisture and crop evapotranspiration information even without any forecasts. It is found that the values of the forecasts vary across dry, normal, and wet years. More significant economic gains are found in normal and wet years than in dry years under the various forecast horizons. To mitigate drought effect on crop yield through irrigation, medium- or long-term climate predictions likely play a more important role than short-term forecasts. NOAA's imperfect 1-week forecast is still valuable in terms of both profit gain and water saving. Compared with the no-rain forecast case, the short-term imperfect forecasts could lead to additional 2.4-8.5% gain in profit and 11.0-26.9% water saving. However, the performance of the imperfect forecast is only slightly better than the ensemble weather forecast based on historical data and slightly inferior to the perfect forecast. It seems that the 1-week forecast horizon is too limited to evaluate the role of the various forecast scenarios for irrigation scheduling, which is actually a seasonal decision issue. For irrigation scheduling, both the forecast quality and the length of forecast time horizon matter. Thus, longer forecasts might be necessary to evaluate the role of forecasts for irrigation scheduling in a more effective way.
Cai, Ximing; Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Wang, Dingbao
Wind Energy Forecasting Technology Update: 2004
This report describes the status of wind energy forecasting technology for predicting wind speed and energy generation of wind energy facilities short-term (minutes to hours), intermediate-term (hours to days), and long-term (months to years) average wind speed and energy generation. The information should be useful to companies that are evaluating or planning to incorporate wind energy forecasting into their operations.
Seasonal Forecasting in the Pacific Using the Coupled Model POAMA-2
The development of a dynamical model seasonal prediction service for island nations in the tropical South Pacific is described. The forecast model is the Australian Bureau of Meteorology's Predictive Ocean�Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA), a ...
Andrew Cottrill; Harry H. Hendon; Eun-Pa Lim; Sally Langford; Kay Shelton; Andrew Charles; David McClymont; David Jones; Yuriy Kuleshov
NOAA'S Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service: Building Pathways for Better Science in Water Forecasting
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Weather Service (NWS) Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) program was established to meet our nation's need for more precise flash-flood forecast information. AHPS uses ...
John Mcenery; John Ingram; Qingyun Duan; Thomas Adams; Lee Anderson
The Impact of Land Surface and Atmospheric Initialization on Seasonal Forecasts with CCSM
Series of forecast experiments for two seasons investigate the impact of specifying realistic initial states of the land in conjunction with the observed states of the ocean and atmosphere while using the National Center for Atmospheric Research (...
Daniel A. Paolino; James L. Kinter III; Ben P. Kirtman; Dughong Min; David M. Straus
A Real-Time Hurricane Surface Wind Forecasting Model: Formulation and Verification
A real-time hurricane wind forecast model is developed by 1) incorporating an asymmetric effect into the Holland hurricane wind model; 2) using the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)/National Hurricane Center�s (NHC) hurricane ...
Lian Xie; Shaowu Bao; Leonard J. Pietrafesa; Kristen Foley; Montserrat Fuentes
Atmospheric Boundary-Layer Properties Affecting Wind Forecasting in Coastal Regions
Atmospheric boundary-layer properties and processes in gulf and coastal regions have special characteristics that are important in forecasting winds and ocean forcing. Accurate coastal-wind predictions require knowledge of local responses to a ...
Kenneth L. Davidson; Patricia J. Boyle; Peter S. Guest
A Retrospective Evaluation of the Storm Surge Produced by Hurricane Gustav (2008): Forecast and Hindcast Results
The evolution and convergence of modeled storm surge were examined using a high-resolution implementation of the Advanced Circulation Coastal Ocean and Storm Surge (ADCIRC) model for Hurricane Gustav (2008). The storm surge forecasts were forced ...
Cristina Forbes; Richard A. Luettich Jr.; Craig A. Mattocks; Joannes J. Westerink
The Dependence of Short-Range 500-mb Height Forecasts on the Initial Flow Regime
Forecast errors in the 500-mb geopotential height field over North America and adjacent ocean environs are calculated for the National Meteorological Center's Nested Grid Model (NGM). The eight winters 1985/86-1992/93 are examined. Errors are ...
Laura A. Stoss; Steven L. Mullen
The Role of Stochastic Forcing in Ensemble Forecasts of the 1997/98 El Ni�o
The impact of stochastic intraseasonal variability on the onset of the 1997/98 El Ni�o was examined using a large ensemble of forecasts starting on 1 December 1996, produced using the Australian Bureau of Meteorology Predictive Ocean Atmosphere ...
Li Shi; Oscar Alves; Harry H. Hendon; Guomin Wang; David Anderson
Business forecasting methods
Forecasting is a common statistical task in business, where it helps inform decisions about scheduling of production, transportation and personnel, and provides a guide to long-term strategic planning. However, business forecasting is often done poorly and is frequently confused with planning and goals. They are three different things. Forecasting is about predicting the future as accurately as possible, given all the information available including historical data and knowledge of any future events that might impact the forecasts. Goals are what you would like to happen. Goals should be linked to forecasts and plans, but this does not always occur. Too often, goals are set without any plan for how to achieve them, and no forecasts for whether they are realistic. Planning is a response to forecasts and goals. Planning involves determining the appropriate actions that are required to make your forecasts match your goals. Forecasting should be an integral part of the decision-making activities of management, as it can play an important role in many areas of a company. Modern organizations require short-, medium- and long-term forecasts, depending on the specific application.
STORMTIPE-95: Results from a Convective Storm Forecast Experiment
During the spring of 1995, an operational forecast experiment using a three-dimensional cloud model was carried out for the north Texas region. Gridpoint soundings were obtained from the daily operational numerical weather prediction models run ...
Louis J. Wicker; Michael P. Kay; Michael P. Foster
A Statistical Comparison of Methods for Determining Ocean Surface Winds
The performance of various techniques which determine ocean surface winds using information from large-scale analyses and forecast models is discussed. The techniques evaluated are the geostrophic relation, a simple empirical law, National ...
W. H. Gemmill; T. W. Yu; D. M. Feit
Storm Prediction Center Forecasting Issues Related to the 3 May 1999 Tornado Outbreak
Forecasters at the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) were faced with many challenges during the 3 May 1999 tornado outbreak. Operational numerical forecast models valid during the outbreak gave inaccurate, inconsistent, and/or ambiguous guidance to ...
Roger Edwards; Stephen F. Corfidi; Richard L. Thompson; Jeffry S. Evans; Jeffrey P. Craven; Jonathan P. Racy; Daniel W. McCarthy; Michael D. Vescio
STORMTIPE: A Forecasting Experiment Using a Three-Dimensional Cloud Model
An experiment using a three-dimensional cloud-scale numerical model in an operational forecasting environment was carried out in the spring of 1991. It involved meteorologists generating forecast environmental conditions associated with ...
Harold E. Brooks; Charles A. Doswell III; Louis J. Wicker
A short-range forecasting and inventory strategy for new product launches
Companies like Procter & Gamble that operate on a make-to-stock strategy use forecasts to drive their manufacturing, selling, and buying processes. Because forecasting future demand is not an exact science, inventory ...
Cheung, Christine
Reduction of Middle-Atmospheric Forecast Bias through Improvement in Satellite Radiance Quality Control
This article discusses a practical problem faced in operational atmospheric forecasting and data assimilation, and efforts to improve forecast quality through the choice of quality control parameters. The need to utilize as much data as possible ...
Young-Joon Kim; William F. Campbell; Steven D. Swadley
An Inner-Shelf Wave Forecasting System for the U.S. Pacific Northwest
An operational inner-shelf wave forecasting system was implemented for the Oregon and southwest Washington coast in the U.S. Pacific Northwest (PNW). High-resolution wave forecasts are useful for navigational planning, identifying wave energy ...
Gabriel Garc�a-Medina; H. Tuba �zkan-Haller; Peter Ruggiero; Jeffrey Oskamp
CFSv2-Based Seasonal Hydroclimatic Forecasts over the Conterminous United States
There is a long history of debate on the usefulness of climate model�based seasonal hydroclimatic forecasts as compared to ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP). In this study, the authors use NCEP's operational forecast system, the Climate ...
Xing Yuan; Eric F. Wood; Joshua K. Roundy; Ming Pan
Evaluation of Atmospheric Fields from the ECMWF Seasonal Forecasts over a 15-Year Period
Since 1997, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) has made seasonal forecasts with ensembles of a coupled ocean�atmosphere model, System-1 (S1). In January 2002, a new version, System-2 (S2), was introduced. For the ...
Geert Jan van Oldenborgh; Magdalena A. Balmaseda; Laura Ferranti; Timothy N. Stockdale; David L. T. Anderson
Forecast Verification of the Polar Ice Prediction System (PIPS) Sea Ice Concentration Fields
The National Ice Center relies upon a coupled ice�ocean model called the Polar Ice Prediction System (PIPS) to provide guidance for its 24�120-h sea ice forecasts. Here forecast skill assessments of the sea ice concentration (C) fields from PIPS ...
Michael L. Van Woert; Cheng-Zhi Zou; Walter N. Meier; Philip D. Hovey; Ruth H. Preller; Pamela G. Posey
ORNL integrated forecasting system
This paper describes the integrated system for forecasting electric energy and load. In the system, service area models of electrical energy (kWh) and load distribution (minimum and maximum loads and load duration curve) are linked to a state-level model of electrical energy (kWh). Thus, the service area forecasts are conditional upon the state-level forecasts. Such a linkage reduces considerably the data requirements for modeling service area electricity demand.
Rizy, C.G.
Comparison of Wind Power and Load Forecasting Error Distributions: Preprint
The introduction of large amounts of variable and uncertain power sources, such as wind power, into the electricity grid presents a number of challenges for system operations. One issue involves the uncertainty associated with scheduling power that wind will supply in future timeframes. However, this is not an entirely new challenge; load is also variable and uncertain, and is strongly influenced by weather patterns. In this work we make a comparison between the day-ahead forecasting errors encountered in wind power forecasting and load forecasting. The study examines the distribution of errors from operational forecasting systems in two different Independent System Operator (ISO) regions for both wind power and load forecasts at the day-ahead timeframe. The day-ahead timescale is critical in power system operations because it serves the unit commitment function for slow-starting conventional generators.
Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Orwig, K.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.
A Coupled Atmosphere�Wave�Ocean Modeling System: Simulation of the Intensity of an Idealized Tropical Cyclone
A coupled atmosphere�wave�ocean modeling system (CAWOMS) based on the integration of atmosphere�wave, atmosphere�ocean, and wave�current interaction processes is developed. The component models consist of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)...
Bin Liu; Huiqing Liu; Lian Xie; Changlong Guan; Dongliang Zhao
Probabilistic Forecasts from the National Digital Forecast Database
The Bayesian processor of forecast (BPF) is developed for a continuous predictand. Its purpose is to process a deterministic forecast (a point estimate of the predictand) into a probabilistic forecast (a distribution function, a density function, ...
Roman Krzysztofowicz; W. Britt Evans
2.1.2 European Solar Radiation Atlas (ESRA)2.4 Evaluation of Solar Forecasting . . . . . . . . .2.4.1 Solar Variability . . . . . . . . . . . . .
forecast | OpenEI
Browse Upload data GDR Community Login | Sign Up Search Facebook icon Twitter icon forecast Dataset Summary Description The EIA's annual energy outlook (AEO) contains yearly...
Seasonal tropical cyclone forecasts
Seasonal forecasts of tropical cyclone activity in various regions have been developed since the first attempts in the early 1980s by Neville
Suzana J. Camargo; Anthony G. Barnston; Philip J. Klotzbach; Christopher W. Landsea
Online 24-h solar power forecasting based on weather typeweather observations at blue hill massachusetts,� Solarof weather patterns on the intensity of solar irradiance;
A non-parametric data-based approach for probabilistic flood forecasting in support of uncertainty communication
In addition to structural measures, governmental authorities have set up flood forecasting systems to be used as early warning systems, to minimize the damage of future floods. These flood forecasting systems make use of hydrological and hydrodynamic ... Keywords: Non parametric approach, Operational flood forecasting, Probabilistic forecasting, Uncertainty estimation
N. Van Steenbergen; J. Ronsyn; P. Willems
Real-time upper-ocean temperature observations from aircraft during operational hurricane reconnaissance missions: AXBT Demonstration Project year one results
Thousands of aircraft observations of upper-ocean thermal structure have been obtained during hurricane and typhoon research field experiments in recent decades. The results from these experiments suggest a strong correlation between upper-ocean ...
Elizabeth R. Sanabia; Bradford S. Barrett; Peter G. Black; Sue Chen; James A. Cummings
Arnold Schwarzenegger INTEGRATED FORECAST AND
Arnold Schwarzenegger Governor INTEGRATED FORECAST AND RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT (INFORM) FOR NORTHERN; the former with primary contributions in the areas of climate and hydrologic forecasting and the latter Service (NWS) California Nevada River Forecast Center (CNRFC), the California Department of Water
CONSULTANT REPORT DEMAND FORECAST EXPERT PANEL INITIAL forecast, end-use demand modeling, econometric modeling, hybrid demand modeling, energyMahon, Carl Linvill 2012. Demand Forecast Expert Panel Initial Assessment. California Energy
Does the term structure forecast
provides more accurate forecasts of real consumption growth14. Harvey, C.R. (1989): \\Forecasts of economic growth fromC.R. (1993): \\Term structure forecasts economic growth", Fi-
Berardi, Andrea; Torous, Walter
Global and Local Skill Forecasts
A skill forecast gives the probability distribution for the error in a forecast. Statistically, Well-founded skill forecasting methods have so far only been applied within the context of simple models. In this paper, the growth of analysis errors ...
P. L. Houtekamer
Distortion Representation of Forecast Errors
Forecast error is decomposed into three components, termed displacement error, amplitude error, mid residual error, respectively. Displacement error measures how much of the forecast error can be accounted for by moving the forecast to best fit ...
Ross N. Hoffman; Zheng Liu; Jean-Francois Louis; Christopher Grassoti
Composite forecasting in commodity systems
Paper No. COMPOSI1E FORECASTING IN CO/Yt.flDITI SYSTfu\\1S1980 .i CfIAPTER COMPOSITE FORECASTING IN COMMOOITY SYSTEMS*to utilizeeconometric .modelsfor forecasting ! ,urposes. The
Johnson, Stanley R; Rausser, Gordon C.
Forecast of criticality experiments and experimental programs needed to support nuclear operations in the United States of America: 1994--1999
This Forecast is generated by the Chair of the Experiment Needs Identification Workgroup (ENIWG), with input from Department of Energy and the nuclear community. One of the current concerns addressed by ENIWG was the Defense Nuclear Facilities Safety Board`s Recommendation 93-2. This Recommendation delineated the need for a critical experimental capability, which includes (1) a program of general-purpose experiments, (2) improving the information base, and (3) ongoing departmental programs. The nuclear community also recognizes the importance of criticality theory, which, as a stepping stone to computational analysis and safety code development, needs to be benchmarked against well-characterized critical experiments. A summary project of the Department`s needs with respect to criticality information includes (1) hands-on training, (2) criticality and nuclear data, (3) detector systems, (4) uranium- and plutonium-based reactors, and (5) accident analysis. The Workgroup has evaluated, prioritized, and categorized each proposed experiment and program. Transportation/Applications is a new category intended to cover the areas of storage, training, emergency response, and standards. This category has the highest number of priority-1 experiments (nine). Facilities capable of performing experiments include the Los Alamos Critical Experiment Facility (LACEF) along with Area V at Sandia National Laboratory. The LACEF continues to house the most significant collection of critical assemblies in the Western Hemisphere. The staff of this facility and Area V are trained and certified, and documentation is current. ENIWG will continue to work with the nuclear community to identify and prioritize experiments because there is an overwhelming need for critical experiments to be performed for basic research and code validation.
Rutherford, D.
Accurate Liquid Water Path Retrieval from Low-Cost Microwave Radiometers Using Additional Information from a Lidar Ceilometer and Operational Forecast Models
, but their presence in the liquid rather than the ice phase can lead to shortwave flux changes of about 100 W m 2 (NWP). In most operational NWP models, production of rain by collision and coalescence is parameterized
Reading, University of
A Simulation of Variability of ENSO Forecast Skill
In many prediction schemes, the skill of long-range forecasts of ENSO events depends on the time of year. Such variability could be directly due to seasonal changes in the basic ocean-atmosphere system or due to the state of ENSO itself.
M. K. Davey; D. L. T. Anderson; S. Lawrence
Evaluating Point Forecasts
Typically, point forecasting methods are compared and assessed by means of an error measure or scoring function, such as the absolute error or the squared error. The individual scores are then averaged over forecast cases, to result in a summary measure of the predictive performance, such as the mean absolute error or the (root) mean squared error. I demonstrate that this common practice can lead to grossly misguided inferences, unless the scoring function and the forecasting task are carefully matched. Effective point forecasting requires that the scoring function be specified ex ante, or that the forecaster receives a directive in the form of a statistical functional, such as the mean or a quantile of the predictive distribution. If the scoring function is specified ex ante, the forecaster can issue the optimal point forecast, namely, the Bayes rule. If the forecaster receives a directive in the form of a functional, it is critical that the scoring function be consistent for it, in the sense that the expect...
Gneiting, Tilmann
Forecasters � Objectives and Strategies ?
This chapter develops a unified modeling framework for analyzing the strategic behavior of forecasters. The theoretical model encompasses reputational objectives, competition for the best accuracy, and bias. Also drawing from the extensive literature on analysts, we review the empirical evidence on strategic forecasting and illustrate how our model can be structurally estimated.
Iv�n Marinovic; Marco Ottaviani; Peter Norman S�rensen
Coefficients for Debiasing Forecasts
Skill-score decompositions can be used to analyze the effects of bias on forecasting skill. However, since bias terms are typically squared, and bias is measured in skill-score units rather than in units of the forecasts, such decompositions only ...
Thomas R. Stewart; Patricia Reagan-Cirincione
A New Verification Score for Public Forecasts
CREF, a new verification score for public forecasts, is introduced. This verification score rewards a forecaster who forecasts a rare event accurately. CREF was used to verify local forecasts at the Weather Service Forecast Office (WSFO) in ...
Dean P. Gulezian
Enhancements to ANNSTLF, EPRI's Short Term Load Forecaster
Reliable hourly load forecasts are important to electric utilities, power marketers, energy service providers, and independent system operators. To meet this need, EPRI's Artificial Neural Net Short Term Load Forecaster (ANNSTLF), which is already implemented at more than thirty-five utilities, was recently enhanced for greater accuracy and user friendliness.
A RELM earthquake forecast based on pattern informatics
We present a RELM forecast of future earthquakes in California that is primarily based on the pattern informatics (PI) method. This method identifies regions that have systematic fluctuations in seismicity, and it has been demonstrated to be successful. A PI forecast map originally published on 19 February 2002 for southern California successfully forecast the locations of sixteen of eighteen M>5 earthquakes during the past three years. The method has also been successfully applied to Japan and on a worldwide basis. An alternative approach to earthquake forecasting is the relative intensity (RI) method. The RI forecast map is based on recent levels of seismic activity of small earthquakes. Recent advances in the PI method show considerable improvement, particularly when compared with the RI method using relative operating characteristic (ROC) diagrams for binary forecasts. The RELM application requires a probability for each location for a number of magnitude bins over a five year period. We have therefore co...
Holliday, J R; Donnelan, A; Rundle, J B; Tiampo, K F; Turcotte, D L; Chen, Chien-chih; Donnelan, Andrea; Holliday, James R.; Rundle, John B.; Tiampo, Kristy F.; Turcotte, Donald L.
· NATIONAL AND GLOBAL FORECASTS · WEST VIRGINIA PROFILES AND FORECASTS · ENERGY · HEALTHCARE Industry Insight: West Virginia Fiscal Forecast 34 CHAPTER 4: WEST ViRGiNiA'S 35 COUNTiES AND MSAs West Forecast Summary 2 CHAPTER 1: THE UNiTED STATES ECONOMY Figure 1.1: United States Real GDP Growth 3 Figure
Mohaghegh, Shahab
1 APPLICATION OF PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS: DECISION MAKING WITH FORECAST UNCERTAINTY Rick Katz.isse.ucar.edu/HP_rick/dmuu.pdf #12;2 QUOTES ON USE OF PROBABILITY FORECASTS · Lao Tzu (Chinese Philosopher) "He who knows does and Value of Probability Forecasts (4) Cost-Loss Decision-Making Model (5) Simulation Example (6) Economic
Katz, Richard
Why are survey forecasts superior to model forecasts?
We investigate two characteristics of survey forecasts that are shown to contribute to their superiority over purely model-based forecasts. These are that the consensus forecasts incorporate the effects of perceived changes in the long-run outlook, as well as embodying departures from the path toward the long-run expectation. Both characteristics on average tend to enhance forecast accuracy. At the level of the individual forecasts, there is scant evidence that the second characteristic enhances forecast accuracy, and the average accuracy of the individual forecasts can be improved by applying a mechanical correction.
Michael P. Clements; Michael P. Clements
EVALUATION OF PV GENERATION CAPICITY CREDIT FORECAST ON DAY-AHEAD UTILITY MARKETS Richard Perez of the NDFD-based solar radiation forecasts for several climatically distinct locations, the evaluation is now continued by testing the forecasts' end-use operational accuracy, focusing on their ability to accurately
Perez, Richard R.
International Journal of Forecasting 26 (2010) 652654 www.elsevier.com/locate/ijforecast
of electricity they have scheduled with the grid operators at the agreedupon time. When load exceeds forecasted with load demands and diversity of electricity costs in different parts of the interconnection. Up to now constraints would occur, under the current assumption about the short term load forecast and the forecast
Shen, Haipeng
Optimization and adjustment policy of two-echelon reservoir inventory management with forecast updates
A finite-horizon, periodic-review inventory model with inflow forecasting updates following the Martingale Model of Forecast Evolution (MMFE) in multiresevoirs is considered. This model introduces a new method of determining an operating policy in which ... Keywords: Adjustment, DP, Inflow forecasts, MMFE, Reservoir
Yingcheng Xu; Li Wang; Zhisong Chen; Siqing Shan; Guoping Xia
The Operational Mesogamma-Scale Analysis and Forecast System of the U.S. Army Test and Evaluation Command. Part IV: The White Sands Missile Range Auto-Nowcast System
During the summer months at the U.S. Army Test and Evaluation Command�s (ATEC) White Sands Missile Range (WSMR), forecasting thunderstorm activity is one of the primary duties of the range forecasters. The safety of personnel working on the range ...
Thomas R. Saxen; Cynthia K. Mueller; Thomas T. Warner; Matthias Steiner; Edward E. Ellison; Eric W. Hatfield; Terri L. Betancourt; Susan M. Dettling; Niles A. Oien
Demand Forecast INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY
Demand Forecast INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY A 20-year forecast of electricity demand is a required of any forecast of electricity demand and developing ways to reduce the risk of planning errors that could arise from this and other uncertainties in the planning process. Electricity demand is forecast
LOAD FORECASTING Eugene A. Feinberg
's electricity price forecasting model, produces forecast of gas demand consistent with electric load. #12Gas demand Council's Market Price of Electricity Forecast Natural GasDemand Electric Load Aggregating Natural between the natural gas and electricity and new uses of natural gas emerge. T natural gas forecasts
Feinberg, Eugene A.
Wind and Load Forecast Error Model for Multiple Geographically Distributed Forecasts
The impact of wind and load forecast errors on power grid operations is frequently evaluated by conducting multi-variant studies, where these errors are simulated repeatedly as random processes based on their known statistical characteristics. To generate these errors correctly, we need to reflect their distributions (which do not necessarily follow a known distribution law), standard deviations, auto- and cross-correlations. For instance, load and wind forecast errors can be closely correlated in different zones of the system. This paper introduces a new methodology for generating multiple cross-correlated random processes to simulate forecast error curves based on a transition probability matrix computed from an empirical error distribution function. The matrix will be used to generate new error time series with statistical features similar to observed errors. We present the derivation of the method and present some experimental results by generating new error forecasts together with their statistics.
Makarov, Yuri V.; Reyes Spindola, Jorge F.; Samaan, Nader A.; Diao, Ruisheng; Hafen, Ryan P.
Segmenting Time Series for Weather Forecasting
turbines. In the domain of meteorology, time series data produced by numerical weather prediction (NWP) models is summarised as weather forecast texts. In the domain of gas turbines, sensor data from an operational gas turbine is summarised for the maintenance engineers. More details on SUMTIME have been
Reiter, Ehud
Road Surface Condition Forecasting in France
A numerical model designed to simulate the evolution of a snow layer on a road surface was forced by meteorological forecasts so as to assess its potential for use within an operational suite for road management in winter. The suite is intended ...
L. Bouilloud; E. Martin; F. Habets; A. Boone; P. Le Moigne; J. Livet; M. Marchetti; A. Foidart; L. Franchist�guy; S. Morel; J. Noilhan; P. Pettr�
Factors Driving Prices & Forecast
This spread is a function of the balance between demand and fresh supply (production and net imports). Finally I will discuss the current forecast for distillate prices this winter...
Modeling and Forecasting Aurora
Modeling the physical processes needed for forecasting space-weather events requires multiscale modeling. This article discusses several modelsresearchers use to treat the various auroral processes that influence space weather.
Dirk Lummerzheim
Valuing Climate Forecast Information
The article describes research opportunities associated with evaluating the characteristics of climate forecasts in settings where sequential decisions are made. Illustrative results are provided for corn production in east central Illinois. ...
Steven T. Sonka; James W. Mjelde; Peter J. Lamb; Steven E. Hollinger; Bruce L. Dixon
Improving Global Model Precipitation Forecasts over India Using Downscaling and the FSU Superensemble. Part II: Seasonal Climate
This study addresses seasonal forecasts of rains over India using the following components: high-resolution rain gauge�based rainfall data covering the years 1987�2001, rain-rate initialization, four global atmosphere�ocean coupled models, a ...
Evaluation of WRF Model Output for Severe Weather Forecasting from the 2008 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Experiment
This study assesses forecasts of the preconvective and near-storm environments from the convection-allowing models run for the 2008 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) spring experiment. ...
Michael C. Coniglio; Kimberly L. Elmore; John S. Kain; Steven J. Weiss; Ming Xue; Morris L. Weisman
An Hourly Assimilation�Forecast Cycle: The RUC
The Rapid Update Cycle (RUC), an operational regional analysis�forecast system among the suite of models at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), is distinctive in two primary aspects: its hourly assimilation cycle and its use ...
Stanley G. Benjamin; Dezs� D�v�nyi; Stephen S. Weygandt; Kevin J. Brundage; John M. Brown; Georg A. Grell; Dongsoo Kim; Barry E. Schwartz; Tatiana G. Smirnova; Tracy Lorraine Smith; Geoffrey S. Manikin
Developing a Performance Measure for Snow-Level Forecasts
The snow level, or altitude in the atmosphere where snow melts to rain, is an important variable for hydrometeorological prediction in mountainous watersheds; yet, there is no operational performance measure associated with snow-level forecasts ...
Allen B. White; Daniel J. Gottas; Arthur F. Henkel; Paul J. Neiman; F. Martin Ralph; Seth I. Gutman
Optimally controlling hybrid electric vehicles using path forecasting
Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs) with path-forecasting belong to the class of fuel efficient vehicles, which use external sensory information and powertrains with multiple operating modes in order to increase fuel economy. ...
Katsargyri, Georgia-Evangelina
Ensemble Data Assimilation with the NCEP Global Forecast System
Real-data experiments with an ensemble data assimilation system using the NCEP Global Forecast System model were performed and compared with the NCEP Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS). All observations in the operational data stream were ...
Jeffrey S. Whitaker; Thomas M. Hamill; Xue Wei; Yucheng Song; Zoltan Toth
Land�Atmosphere Coupling Strength in the Global Forecast System
The operational coupled land�atmosphere forecast model from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) is evaluated for the strength and characteristics of its coupling in the water cycle between land and atmosphere. Following the ...
Li Zhang; Paul A. Dirmeyer; Jiangfeng Wei; Zhichang Guo; Cheng-Hsuan Lu
Realizations of Daily Weather in Forecast Seasonal Climate
Stochastic daily weather time series models (?�weather generators�?) are parameterized consistent with both local climate and probabilistic seasonal forecasts. Both single-station weather generators, and spatial networks of coherently operating ...
D. S. Wilks
A Multistep Automatic Calibration Scheme for River Forecasting Models
Operational flood forecasting models vary in complexity, but nearly all have parameters for which values must be estimated. The traditional and widespread manual calibration approach requires considerable training and experience and is typically ...
Terri S. Hogue; Soroosh Sorooshian; Hoshin Gupta; Andrea Holz; Dean Braatz
Dynamical Extended Range Forecasting (DERF) at the National Meteorological Center
Early results are presented of an experimental program in Dynamical Extended Range Forecasting at the National Meteorological Center. The primary objective of this program is to assess the feasibility of extending operational numerical weather ...
M. Steven Tracton; Kingtse Mo; Wilbur Chen; Eugenia Kalnay; Robert Kistler; Glenn White
The Developmental Testbed Center and its Winter Forecasting Experiment
The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Developmental Testbed Center (DTC) was formed to promote exchanges between the development and operational communities in the field of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP). The WRF DTC serves to accelerate ...
L�gia Bernardet; Steve Koch; Edward Szoke; Andrew Loughe; Jennifer Luppens Mahoney; Louisa Nance; Meral Demirtas; Tressa Fowler; Robert Gall; Hui-Ya Chuang; Matthew Pyle
The WGNE Assessment of Short-term Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts
Twenty-four-hour and 48-h quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) from 11 operational numerical weather prediction models have been verified for a 4-yr period against rain gauge observations over the United States, Germany, and Australia to ...
Elizabeth E. Ebert; Ulrich Damrath; Werner Wergen; Michael E. Baldwin
Severe and Convective Weather: A Central Region Forecasting Challenge
This paper is one of a series of papers dealing with operational weather forecasting within the Central Region of the National Weather Service. It focuses on the primary Central Region warm season weather producer, the thunderstorm. Some of the ...
Richard P. McNulty
A statistical model for risk management of electric outage forecasts
Risk management of power outages caused by severe weather events, such as hurricanes, tornadoes, and thunderstorms, plays an important role in electric utility distribution operations. Damage prediction based on weather forecasts on an appropriate spatial ...
H. Li; L. A. Treinish; J. R. M. Hosking
A Forecasting/Nowcasting System for Remote Field Locations
Vast quantities of frequently updated weather data for both forecasting and nowcasting are generally required in meteorological field programs. The continuing synthesis of this data to suit specific operations is best accomplished using ...
Harry T. Ochs III; Stanley Q. Kidder
Ocean Terracing
Artworks can improve humanity ability to apply macro-engineering principles which skirt or correct oceanographic problems impairing the economic usefulness of coastal land, the overhead airshed, and seawater temperature and salinity stability. A new form of Art, Ocean Art, is here proposed which centers on deliberate terracing of appropriate regions of our world ocean; a proposed example of macro-engineered useful Ocean Art is the technically possible 21-st Century terracing of the Mediterranean Sea. Ocean Art is applicable worldwide to places that might be practically improved by its judicious employment. Such Ocean Art may constitute an entirely unique category of solutions to coastal disaster prevention planning.
Richard Cathcart; Alexander Bolonkin
A Proposal for Analyzing and Forecasting Lower-Atmospheric Undular Bores in the Western Gulf of Mexico Region
A method is presented for analyzing and forecasting the occurrence of lower-atmospheric undular bores over the western and central Gulf of Mexico (GOM) and adjacent land areas using standard operational forecasting and analysis techniques. The ...
Philip A. Lutzak
The Impact of Advanced Nowcasting Systems on Severe Weather Warning during the Sydney 2000 Forecast Demonstration Project: 3 November 2000
One of the principal aims of the Sydney 2000 Forecast Demonstration Project was to assess the utility of advanced nowcasting systems to operational severe weather forecasters. This paper describes the application of the products of a variety of ...
Neil I. Fox; Rob Webb; John Bally; Michael W. Sleigh; Clive E. Pierce; David M. L. Sills; Paul I. Joe; James Wilson; Chris G. Collier
Multivariate Forecast Evaluation And Rationality Testing
1062�1088. MULTIVARIATE FORECASTS Chaudhuri, P. (1996): �OnKingdom. MULTIVARIATE FORECASTS Kirchg�ssner, G. , and U. K.2005): �Estimation and Testing of Forecast Rationality under
Komunjer, Ivana; OWYANG, MICHAEL
Forecasting in the Presence of Level Shifts
accuracy. Journal of Forecasting 19 : 537-560. Hamilton JD.430. Harvey AC. 1989. Forecasting, structural time seriesMH, Timmermann A. 1994. Forecasting stock returns: An
Smith, Aaron
Hydrometeorological Short-Range Ensemble Forecasts in Complex Terrain. Part II: Economic Evaluation
Two economic models are employed to perform a value assessment of short-range ensemble forecasts of 24-h precipitation probabilities for hydroelectric reservoir operation.
Doug McCollor; Roland Stull
We examine the accuracy and bias of intrinsic equity prices estimated from three accounting-based valuation models using analyst�s earnings forecasts over a four-year horizon. The models are: (a) the earnings capitalization model, (b) the residual income model without a terminal value, and (c) the residual income model with a terminal value that assumes residual income will grow beyond the horizon at a constant rate determined from the expected residual income growth rate over the forecast horizon. Our analysis is based on valuation errors that are calculated by comparing estimated prices to actual prices. We contribute to the literature by examining whether: (i) the analysts � earnings forecasts convey information about value beyond that conveyed by current earnings, book value and dividends, (ii) the use of firm specific growth rates in terminal value calculations results in more unbiased and accurate valuations than the use of constant growth rates, and (iii) different models perform better under different ex-ante conditions. We find that analysts � earnings forecasts convey information about value beyond that conveyed by current earnings, book values and dividends. Each of the models that we used has valuation errors that decline monotonically as the horizon increases implying that earnings forecasts at each horizon convey new value relevant information. We cannot find a clear advantage to using firm specific growth rates instead of a constant rate of 4 % across all sample
Theodore Sougiannis; Takashi Yaekura
CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 REVISED FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand Robert P. Oglesby Executive Director #12;i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The demand forecast is the combined prepared the commercial sector forecast. Mehrzad Soltani Nia helped prepare the industrial forecast
California Wind Energy Forecasting System Development and Testing, Phase 1: Initial Testing
Wind energy forecasting uses sophisticated numerical weather forecasting and wind plant power generation models to predict the hourly energy generation of a wind power plant up to 48 hours in advance. As a result, it has great potential to address the needs of the California Independent System Operator (ISO) and the wind plant operators, as well as power marketers and buyers and utility system dispatch personnel. This report gives the results of 28 days of testing of wind energy forecasting at a Californ...
The Fleet Numerical Oceanography Center Global Spectral Ocean Wave Model
The Spectral Ocean Wave Model (SOWM) has been an operational product at Fleet Numerical Oceanography Center since the mid 1970s; the Global Spectral Ocean Wave Model (GSOWM) was developed to replace it. An operational test of GSOWM, using buoy, ...
R. M. Clancy; J. E. Kaitala; L. F. Zambresky
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST METHODS REPORT Companion Report to the California Energy Demand 2006-2016 Staff Energy Demand Forecast Report STAFFREPORT June 2005 CEC-400 .......................................................................................................................................1-1 ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING AT THE CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION: AN OVERVIEW
Forecast Technical Document Technical Glossary
Forecast Technical Document Technical Glossary A document defining some of the terms used in the 2011 Production Forecast technical documentation. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley in the Forecast documentation. In some cases, the terms and the descriptions are "industry standard", in others
Forecast Technical Document Tree Species
Forecast Technical Document Tree Species A document listing the tree species included in the 2011 Production Forecast Tom Jenkins Justin Gilbert Ewan Mackie Robert Matthews #12;PF2011 List of tree species The following is the list of species used within the Forecast System. Species are ordered alphabetically
3, 21452173, 2006 Probabilistic forecast
HESSD 3, 21452173, 2006 Probabilistic forecast verification F. Laio and S. Tamea Title Page for probabilistic forecasts of continuous hydrological variables F. Laio and S. Tamea DITIC Department2173, 2006 Probabilistic forecast verification F. Laio and S. Tamea Title Page Abstract Introduction
Paris-Sud XI, Université de
4, 189212, 2007 Forecast and
OSD 4, 189212, 2007 Forecast and analysis assessment through skill scores M. Tonani et al. Title Science Forecast and analysis assessment through skill scores M. Tonani 1 , N. Pinardi 2 , C. Fratianni 1 Forecast and analysis assessment through skill scores M. Tonani et al. Title Page Abstract Introduction
predecessors to forecast stock prices and manage portfolios for approximately 3 years.) We examineFINANCIAL FORECASTING USING GENETIC ALGORITHMS SAM MAHFOUD and GANESH MANI LBS Capital Management entitled Genetic Algorithms for Inductive Learning). Time-series forecasting is a special type
Boetticher, Gary D.
Consensus Coal Production Forecast for
Consensus Coal Production Forecast for West Virginia 2009-2030 Prepared for the West Virginia Summary 1 Recent Developments 2 Consensus Coal Production Forecast for West Virginia 10 Risks References 27 #12;W.Va. Consensus Coal Forecast Update 2009 iii List of Tables 1. W.Va. Coal Production
Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Tables
Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Table 2. Total Energy Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 3. Total Petroleum Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 4. Total Natural Gas Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 5. Total Coal Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 6. Total Electricity Sales, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 7. Crude Oil Production, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 8. Natural Gas Production, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 9. Coal Production, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 10. Net Petroleum Imports, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 11. Net Natural Gas Imports, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 12. Net Coal Exports, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 13. World Oil Prices, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 14. Natural Gas Wellhead Prices, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 15. Coal Prices to Electric Utilities, Actual vs. Forecasts
Forecast of auroral activity
A new technique is developed to predict auroral activity based on a sample of over 9000 auroral sites identified in global auroral images obtained by an ultraviolet imager on the NASA Polar satellite during a 6-month period. Four attributes of auroral activity sites are utilized in forecasting
A. T. Y. Lui
The Effective Drag Coefficient for Evaluating Wind Stress over the Oceans
Computations of the surface wind stress and pseudostress over the global oceans have been made using surface winds from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts for 7 years. The drag coefficient is a function of wind speed and ...
Kevin E. Trenberth; William G. Large; Jerry G. Olson
A Decadal Prediction Case Study: Late Twentieth-Century North Atlantic Ocean Heat Content
An ensemble of initialized decadal prediction (DP) experiments using the Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4) shows considerable skill at forecasting changes in North Atlantic upper-ocean heat content and surface temperature up to a ...
Stephen Yeager; Alicia Karspeck; Gokhan Danabasoglu; Joe Tribbia; Haiyan Teng
The Sensitivity of the ECMWF Model to the Parameterization of Evaporation from the Tropical Oceans
Stimulated by the results of a simple SST anomaly experiment with the ECMWF forecast model, a study was carried out to examine the model parameterization of evaporation from the tropica] oceans. In earlier versions of the model, these fluxes were ...
M. J. Miller; A. C. M. Beljaars; T. N. Palmer
Which Bulk Aerodynamic Algorithms are Least Problematic in Computing Ocean Surface Turbulent Fluxes?
Bulk aerodynamic algorithms are needed to compute ocean surface turbulent fluxes in weather forecasting and climate models and in the development of global surface flux datasets. Twelve such algorithms are evaluated and ranked using direct ...
Michael A. Brunke; Chris W. Fairall; Xubin Zeng; Laurence Eymard; Judith A. Curry
Statistical Wind Power Forecasting Models: Results for U.S. Wind Farms; Preprint
Electricity markets in the United States are evolving. Accurate wind power forecasts are beneficial for wind plant operators, utility operators, and utility customers. An accurate forecast makes it possible for grid operators to schedule the economically efficient generation to meet the demand of electrical customers. In the evolving markets, some form of auction is held for various forward markets, such as hour ahead or day ahead. This paper develops several statistical forecasting models that can be useful in hour-ahead markets that have a similar tariff. Although longer-term forecasting relies on numerical weather models, the statistical models used here focus on the short-term forecasts that can be useful in the hour-ahead markets. We investigate the extent to which time-series analysis can improve on simplistic persistence forecasts. This project applied a class of models known as autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models to both wind speed and wind power output.
Milligan, M.; Schwartz, M.; Wan, Y.
Medium-term Electricity Price Forecasting Shahab Shariat Torbaghan, Member, IEEE, Amir Motamedi, Member, IEEE, Hamidreza Zareipour, Senior
is expected peak loads. Though we have found that the Council's draft energy forecast is a plausible and industrial operations substitute technology (the ICE effect) for labor. Regarding the peak load forecast is fundamental to a forecast and deviations from historical norms should be fully explored. If load factors
Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation
by Esmeralda Sánchez The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has produced an annual evaluation of the accuracy of the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on the prior year by adding the projections from the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. The Forecast Evaluation examines the accuracy of AEO forecasts dating back to AEO82 by calculating the average absolute forecast errors for each of the major variables for AEO82 through AEO2003. The average absolute forecast error, which for the purpose of this report will also be referred to simply as "average error" or "forecast error", is computed as the simple mean, or average, of all the absolute values of the percent errors,
Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications of Ensemble Statistical Procedures
Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications ofidentify with useful forecasting skill the very few inmatescontribute substantially to forecasting skill necessarily
Berk, Richard; Kriegler, Brian; Baek, Jong-Ho
Information and Inference in Econometrics: Estimation, Testing and Forecasting
Application: Forecasting Equity Premium . . . . . . . . . .2.6.1 Forecasting4 Forecasting Using Supervised Factor Models 4.1
Tu, Yundong
Richard A. Berk; Brian Kriegler; Jong-Ho Baek
by Esmeralda Sanchez by Esmeralda Sanchez Errata -(7/14/04) The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has produced an annual evaluation of the accuracy of the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on the prior year by adding the projections from the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. The Forecast Evaluation examines the accuracy of AEO forecasts dating back to AEO82 by calculating the average absolute forecast errors for each of the major variables for AEO82 through AEO2003. The average absolute forecast error, which for the purpose of this report will also be referred to simply as "average error" or "forecast error", is computed as the simple mean, or average, of all the absolute values of the percent errors, expressed as the percentage difference between the Reference Case projection and actual historic value, shown for every AEO and for each year in the forecast horizon (for a given variable). The historical data are typically taken from the Annual Energy Review (AER). The last column of Table 1 provides a summary of the most recent average absolute forecast errors. The calculation of the forecast error is shown in more detail in Tables 2 through 18. Because data for coal prices to electric generating plants were not available from the AER, data from the Monthly Energy Review (MER), July 2003 were used.
Management Earnings Forecasts and Value of Analyst Forecast Revisions
Prior studies evaluate the relative importance of the sources of value that financial analysts bring to the market based on the price impact of forecast revisions over the event time. We find that management earnings forecasts influence the timing and precision of analyst forecasts. More importantly, evidence suggests that prior studies � finding of weaker (stronger) stock-price responses to forecast revisions in the period immediately after (before) the prior-quarter earnings announcement is likely to be the artifact of a temporal pattern of management earnings forecasts over the event time. To the extent that management earnings forecasts are public disclosures, our results suggest that the relative importance of analysts ' information discovery role documented in prior studies is likely to be overstated.
Yongtae Kim; Minsup Song
Forecasting the Impacts of Strong Wintertime Post-Cold Front Winds in the Northern Plains
Strong post-cold front wind events in the northern plains of the United States are a difficult problem for operational forecasters. The various atmospheric ingredients that lead to these events are examined from an operational point of view. ...
Anton F. Kapela; Preston W. Leftwich; Richard Van Ess
Chapter 11 Forecasting breaks and forecasting during breaks
Success in accurately forecasting breaks requires that they are predictable from relevant information available at the forecast origin using an appropriate model form, which can be selected and estimated before the break. To clarify the roles of these six necessary conditions, we distinguish between the information set for �normal forces � and the one for �break drivers�, then outline sources of potential information. Relevant non-linear, dynamic models facing multiple breaks can have more candidate variables than observations, so we discuss automatic model selection. As a failure to accurately forecast breaks remains likely, we augment our strategy by modelling breaks during their progress, and consider robust forecasting devices.
Jennifer L. Castle; Nicholas W. P. Fawcett; David F. Hendry
Application of a Limited-Area Short-Range Ensemble Forecast System to a Case of Heavy Rainfall in the Mediterranean Region
Severe weather risk assessment is becoming an increasing component of the daily operational activity at advanced meteorological forecasting centers. To improve its forecast capabilities and develop a severe weather warning system, the Sardinian ...
P. A. Chessa; G. Ficca; M. Marrocu; R. Buizza
Development and testing of improved statistical wind power forecasting methods.
Wind power forecasting (WPF) provides important inputs to power system operators and electricity market participants. It is therefore not surprising that WPF has attracted increasing interest within the electric power industry. In this report, we document our research on improving statistical WPF algorithms for point, uncertainty, and ramp forecasting. Below, we provide a brief introduction to the research presented in the following chapters. For a detailed overview of the state-of-the-art in wind power forecasting, we refer to [1]. Our related work on the application of WPF in operational decisions is documented in [2]. Point forecasts of wind power are highly dependent on the training criteria used in the statistical algorithms that are used to convert weather forecasts and observational data to a power forecast. In Chapter 2, we explore the application of information theoretic learning (ITL) as opposed to the classical minimum square error (MSE) criterion for point forecasting. In contrast to the MSE criterion, ITL criteria do not assume a Gaussian distribution of the forecasting errors. We investigate to what extent ITL criteria yield better results. In addition, we analyze time-adaptive training algorithms and how they enable WPF algorithms to cope with non-stationary data and, thus, to adapt to new situations without requiring additional offline training of the model. We test the new point forecasting algorithms on two wind farms located in the U.S. Midwest. Although there have been advancements in deterministic WPF, a single-valued forecast cannot provide information on the dispersion of observations around the predicted value. We argue that it is essential to generate, together with (or as an alternative to) point forecasts, a representation of the wind power uncertainty. Wind power uncertainty representation can take the form of probabilistic forecasts (e.g., probability density function, quantiles), risk indices (e.g., prediction risk index) or scenarios (with spatial and/or temporal dependence). Statistical approaches to uncertainty forecasting basically consist of estimating the uncertainty based on observed forecasting errors. Quantile regression (QR) is currently a commonly used approach in uncertainty forecasting. In Chapter 3, we propose new statistical approaches to the uncertainty estimation problem by employing kernel density forecast (KDF) methods. We use two estimators in both offline and time-adaptive modes, namely, the Nadaraya-Watson (NW) and Quantilecopula (QC) estimators. We conduct detailed tests of the new approaches using QR as a benchmark. One of the major issues in wind power generation are sudden and large changes of wind power output over a short period of time, namely ramping events. In Chapter 4, we perform a comparative study of existing definitions and methodologies for ramp forecasting. We also introduce a new probabilistic method for ramp event detection. The method starts with a stochastic algorithm that generates wind power scenarios, which are passed through a high-pass filter for ramp detection and estimation of the likelihood of ramp events to happen. The report is organized as follows: Chapter 2 presents the results of the application of ITL training criteria to deterministic WPF; Chapter 3 reports the study on probabilistic WPF, including new contributions to wind power uncertainty forecasting; Chapter 4 presents a new method to predict and visualize ramp events, comparing it with state-of-the-art methodologies; Chapter 5 briefly summarizes the main findings and contributions of this report.
Mendes, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V.; Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Botterud, A.; Zhou, Z.; Wang, J. (Decision and Information Sciences); (INESC Porto)
Forecasting Uncertain Hotel Room Demand
Economic systems are characterized by increasing uncertainty in their dynamics. This increasing uncertainty is likely to incur bad decisions that can be costly in financial terms. This makes forecasting of uncertain economic variables an instrumental activity in any organization. This paper takes the hotel industry as a practical application of forecasting using the Holt-Winters method. The problem here is to forecast the uncertain demand for rooms at a hotel for each arrival day. Forecasting is part of hotel revenue management system whose objective is to maximize the revenue by making decisions regarding when to make rooms available for customers and at what price. The forecast approach discussed in this paper is based on quantitative models and does not incorporate management expertise. Even though, forecast results are found to be satisfactory for certain days, this is not the case for other arrival days. It is believed that human judgment is important when dealing with ...
Mihir Rajopadhye Mounir; Mounir Ben Ghaliay; Paul P. Wang; Timothy Baker; Craig V. Eister
Ocean Datasets | Data.gov
Ocean Datasets Ocean Data Tools Technical Guide Map Gallery Regional Planning Feedback Ocean You are here Data.gov Communities Ocean Ocean, Coast, and Great Lakes Planning...
Forecast Technical Document Growing Stock Volume
Forecast Technical Document Growing Stock Volume Forecasts A document describing how growing stock (`standing') volume is handled in the 2011 Production Forecast. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley Halsall #12;PF2011 Growing stock volume forecasts Background A forecast of standing volume (or
Wind forecasting objectives for utility schedulers and energy traders
The wind energy industry and electricity producers can benefit in a number of ways from increased wind forecast accuracy. Higher confidence in the reliability of wind forecasts can help persuade an electric utility to increase the penetration of wind energy into its operating system and to augment the capacity value of wind electric generation. Reliable forecasts can also assist daily energy traders employed by utilities in marketing the available and anticipated wind energy to power pools and other energy users. As the number of utilities with wind energy experience grows, and wind energy penetration levels increase, the need for reliable wind forecasts will likely grow as well. This period of wind energy growth also coincides with advances in computer weather prediction technology that could lead to more accurate wind forecasts. Thus, it is important to identify the type of forecast information needed by utility schedulers and energy traders. This step will help develop approaches to the challenge of wind forecasting that will result in useful products being supplied to utilities or other energy generating entities. This paper presents the objectives, approach, and current findings of a US Department of Energy National Renewable Energy Laboratory (DOE/NREL) initiative to develop useful wind forecasting tools for utilities involved with wind energy generation. The focus of this initiative thus far has been to learn about the needs of prospective utility users. NREL representatives conducted a series of onsite interviews with key utility staff, usually schedulers and research planners, at seven US utilities. The purpose was to ascertain information on actual scheduling and trading procedures, and how utilities could integrate wind forecasting into these activities.
Schwartz, M.N. [National Renewable Energy Lab., Golden, CO (United States); Bailey, B.H. [AWS Scientific, Inc., Albany, NY (United States)
Aviation forecasting and systems analyses
The 9 papers in this report deal with the following areas: method of allocating airport runway slots; method for forecasting general aviation activity; air traffic control network-planning model based on second-order Markov chains; analyzing ticket-choice decisions of air travelers; assessing the safety and risk of air traffic control systems: risk estimation from rare events; forecasts of aviation fuel consumption in Virginia; estimating the market share of international air carriers; forecasts of passenger and air-cargo activity at Logan International Airport; and forecasting method for general aviation aircraft and their activity.
Geisinger, K.E.; Brander, J.R.G.; Wilson, F.R.; Kohn, H.M.; Polhemus, N.W.
Studies of inflation and forecasting.
??This dissertation contains five research papers in the area of applied econometrics. The two broad themes of the research are inflation and forecasting. The first� (more)
Bermingham, Colin
UWIG Forecasting Workshop -- Albany (Presentation)
This presentation describes the importance of good forecasting for variable generation, the different approaches used by industry, and the importance of validated high-quality data.
Lew, D.
1434 VOLUME 132M O N T H L Y W E A T H E R R E V I E W Ensemble Reforecasting: Improving Medium-Range Forecast Skill Using
-Range Forecast Skill Using Retrospective Forecasts THOMAS M. HAMILL University of Colorado and NOAACIRES Climate statistics (MOS) approach to improving 610-day and week 2 probabilistic forecasts of surface temperature of the NCEP medium-range forecast model with physics operational during 1998. An NCEPNCAR reanalysis initial
A Study of Six Operational Sea Surface Temperature Analyses
This study results from recommendations made by a 1984 WMO Expert Committee on Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction Relevant to Long-Range Forecasting. The committee suggested that comparisons be carried out between monthly sea surface temperature (SST) ...
C. K. Folland; R. W. Reynolds; M. Gordon; D. E. Parker
Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015
158 158 May 2010 Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015 Lori Bird National Renewable Energy Laboratory Ed Holt Ed Holt & Associates, Inc. Jenny Sumner and Claire Kreycik National Renewable Energy Laboratory National Renewable Energy Laboratory 1617 Cole Boulevard, Golden, Colorado 80401-3393 303-275-3000 * www.nrel.gov NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC Contract No. DE-AC36-08-GO28308 Technical Report NREL/TP-6A2-48158 May 2010 Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015 Lori Bird National Renewable Energy Laboratory Ed Holt Ed Holt & Associates, Inc. Jenny Sumner and Claire Kreycik National Renewable Energy Laboratory
Weather forecast-based optimization of integrated energy systems.
In this work, we establish an on-line optimization framework to exploit detailed weather forecast information in the operation of integrated energy systems, such as buildings and photovoltaic/wind hybrid systems. We first discuss how the use of traditional reactive operation strategies that neglect the future evolution of the ambient conditions can translate in high operating costs. To overcome this problem, we propose the use of a supervisory dynamic optimization strategy that can lead to more proactive and cost-effective operations. The strategy is based on the solution of a receding-horizon stochastic dynamic optimization problem. This permits the direct incorporation of economic objectives, statistical forecast information, and operational constraints. To obtain the weather forecast information, we employ a state-of-the-art forecasting model initialized with real meteorological data. The statistical ambient information is obtained from a set of realizations generated by the weather model executed in an operational setting. We present proof-of-concept simulation studies to demonstrate that the proposed framework can lead to significant savings (more than 18% reduction) in operating costs.
Zavala, V. M.; Constantinescu, E. M.; Krause, T.; Anitescu, M.
Statistical Wind Power Forecasting for U.S. Wind Farms: Preprint
Electricity markets in the United States are evolving. Accurate wind power forecasts are beneficial for wind plant operators, utility operators, and utility customers. An accurate forecast allows grid operators to schedule economically efficient generation to meet the demand of electrical customers. The evolving markets hold some form of auction for various forward markets, such as hour ahead or day ahead. This paper describes several statistical forecasting models that can be useful in hour-ahead markets. Although longer-term forecasting relies on numerical weather models, the statistical models used here focus on the short-term forecasts that can be useful in the hour-ahead markets. The purpose of the paper is not to develop forecasting models that can compete with commercially available models. Instead, we investigate the extent to which time-series analysis can improve simplistic persistence forecasts. This project applied a class of models known as autoregressive moving average (A RMA) models to both wind speed and wind power output. The results from wind farms in Minnesota, Iowa, and along the Washington-Oregon border indicate that statistical modeling can provide a significant improvement in wind forecasts compared to persistence forecasts.
Milligan, M.; Schwartz, M. N.; Wan, Y.
Lagged Ensembles, Forecast Configuration, and Seasonal Predictions
An analysis of lagged ensemble seasonal forecasts from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), is presented. The focus of the analysis is on the construction of lagged ensemble forecasts ...
Mingyue Chen; Wanqiu Wang; Arun Kumar
Probabilistic Verification of Monthly Temperature Forecasts
Monthly forecasting bridges the gap between medium-range weather forecasting and seasonal predictions. While such forecasts in the prediction range of 1�4 weeks are vital to many applications in the context of weather and climate risk management, ...
Andreas P. Weigel; Daniel Baggenstos; Mark A. Liniger; Fr�d�ric Vitart; Christof Appenzeller
CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand.Oglesby Executive Director #12;i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The demand forecast is the combined product to the contributing authors listed previously, Mohsen Abrishami prepared the commercial sector forecast. Mehrzad
CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 FINAL FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand The demand forecast is the combined product of the hard work and expertise of numerous California Energy previously, Mohsen Abrishami prepared the commercial sector forecast. Mehrzad Soltani Nia helped prepare
A Forecast for the California Labor Market
issue for the state. A Forecast for the California Laborto Go? � The UCLA Anderson Forecast for the Nation andAngeles: UCLA Anderson Forecast: Nation 1.1 � 1.9. Dhawan,
Mitchell, Daniel J. B.
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION STAFF FORECAST OF 2007 PEAK DEMAND STAFFREPORT June 2006 CEC-400.................................................................................. 9 Sources of Forecast Error....................................................................... .................11 Tables Table 1: Revised versus September 2005 Peak Demand Forecast ......................... 2
Calibration of Probabilistic Forecasts of Binary Events
Probabilistic forecasts of atmospheric variables are often given as relative frequencies obtained from ensembles of deterministic forecasts. The detrimental effects of imperfect models and initial conditions on the quality of such forecasts can ...
Cristina Primo; Christopher A. T. Ferro; Ian T. Jolliffe; David B. Stephenson
1 CORPORATE GOVERNANCE AND MANAGEMENT EARNINGS FORECAST QUALITY: EVIDENCE FROM FRENCH IPOS Anis attributes, ownership retained, auditor quality, and underwriter reputation and management earnings forecast quality measured by management earnings forecast accuracy and bias. Using 117 French IPOs, we find
Forecasting women's apparel sales using mathematical
Forecasting women's apparel sales using mathematical modeling Celia Frank and Ashish Garg, USA Les Sztandera Philadelphia University, Philadelphia, PA, USA Keywords Apparel, Forecasting average (MA), auto- regression (AR), or combinations of them are used for forecasting sales. Since
Raheja, Amar
On the Prediction of Forecast Skill
Using 10-day forecast 500 mb height data from the last 7 yr, the potential to predict the skill of numerical weather forecasts is discussed. Four possible predictor sets are described. The first, giving the consistency between adjacent forecasts, ...
T. N. Palmer; S. Tibaldi
Equitable Skill Scores for Categorical Forecasts
Many skill scores used to evaluate categorical forecasts of discrete variables are inequitable, in the sense that constant forecasts of some events lead to better scores than constant forecasts of other events. Inequitable skill scores may ...
Lev S. Gandin; Allan H. Murphy
Forecasting Electric Vehicle Costs with Experience Curves
April, 5. R 2~1. Dino. "Forecasting the Price Evolution of 1ElectromcProducts," Ioumal of Forecasting, �oL4, No I, 1985.costs and a set of forecasting tools that can be refined as
Lipman, Timonthy E.; Sperling, Daniel
Calibration of Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts
From 1 August 1990 to 31 July 1995, the Weather Service Forecast Office in Pittsburgh prepared 6159 probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts. Forecasts were made twice a day for 24-h periods beginning at 0000 and 1200 UTC for two river ...
Roman Krzysztofowicz; Ashley A. Sigrest
Diagnosing Forecast Errors in Tropical Cyclone Motion
This paper reports on the development of a diagnostic approach that can be used to examine the sources of numerical model forecast error that contribute to degraded tropical cyclone (TC) motion forecasts. Tropical cyclone motion forecasts depend ...
Thomas J. Galarneau Jr.; Christopher A. Davis
Improving Forecast Communication: Linguistic and Cultural Considerations
One goal of weather and climate forecasting is to inform decision making. Effective communication of forecasts to various sectors of the public is essential for meeting that goal, yet studies repeatedly show that forecasts are not well understood ...
Karen Pennesi
Ensemble Cloud Model Applications to Forecasting Thunderstorms
A cloud model ensemble forecasting approach is developed to create forecasts that describe the range and distribution of thunderstorm lifetimes that may be expected to occur on a particular day. Such forecasts are crucial for anticipating severe ...
Evaluation of errors in national energy forecasts.
??Energy forecasts are widely used by the U.S. government, politicians, think tanks, and utility companies. While short-term forecasts were reasonably accurate, medium and long-range forecasts� (more)
Sakva, Denys
What Is the True Value of Forecasts?
Understanding the economic value of weather and climate forecasts is of tremendous practical importance. Traditional models that have attempted to gauge forecast value have focused on a best-case scenario, in which forecast users are assumed to ...
Antony Millner
Whither the Weather Analysis and Forecasting Process?
An argument is made that if human forecasters are to continue to maintain a skill advantage over steadily improving model and guidance forecasts, then ways have to be found to prevent the deterioration of forecaster skills through disuse. The ...
An analysis of lagged ensemble seasonal forecasts from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) is presented. The focus of the analysis is on the construction of lagged ensemble forecasts ...
How Much Predictive Skill Is Contained in the Thermal Structure of an Oceanic GCM?
The time history of upper-ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific has been used as a predictor in a statistical prediction scheme to forecast SST anomalies in this region. The temperature variations were taken from the output of an oceanic ...
Mojib Latif; Nicholas E. Graham
Evaluating Density Forecasts: Forecast Combinations, Model Mixtures, Calibration and Sharpness
In a recent article Gneiting, Balabdaoui and Raftery (JRSSB, 2007) propose the criterion of sharpness for the evaluation of predictive distributions or density forecasts. They motivate their proposal by an example in which standard evaluation procedures based on probability integral transforms cannot distinguish between the ideal forecast and several competing forecasts. In this paper we show that their example has some unrealistic features from the perspective of the time-series forecasting literature, hence it is an insecure foundation for their argument that existing calibration procedures are inadequate in practice. We present an alternative, more realistic example in which relevant statistical methods, including information-based methods, provide the required discrimination between competing forecasts. We conclude that there is no need for a subsidiary criterion of sharpness.
James Mitchell; Kenneth F. Wallis
The evolution of consensus in macroeconomic forecasting
When professional forecasters repeatedly forecast macroeconomic variables, their forecasts may converge over time towards a consensus. The evolution of consensus is analyzed with Blue Chip data under a parametric polynomial decay function that permits flexibility in the decay path. For the most part, this specification fits the data. We test whether forecast differences decay to zero at the same point in time for a panel of forecasters, and discuss possible explanations for this, along with its implications for studies using panels of forecasters.
Allan W. Gregory; James Yetman; Jel Codes C E; Robert Eggert; Fred Joutz
Improving Forecasting: A plea for historical retrospectives
Improving Forecasting: A plea for historical retrospectives Title Improving Forecasting: A plea for historical retrospectives Publication Type Journal Article Year of Publication...
Electricity price forecasting in a grid environment.
??Accurate electricity price forecasting is critical to market participants in wholesale electricity markets. Market participants rely on price forecasts to decide their bidding strategies, allocate� (more)
Li, Guang, 1974-
Estimates of Analysis and Forecast Error Variances Derived from the Adjoint of 4D-Var
A method is presented in which the adjoint of a four-dimensional variational data assimilation system (4D-Var) was used to compute the expected analysis and forecast error variances of linear functions of the ocean state vector. The power and ...
Andrew M. Moore; Hernan G. Arango; Gregoire Broquet
Background pollution forecast over bulgaria
Both, the current level of air pollution studies and social needs in the country, are in a stage mature enough for creating Bulgarian Chemical Weather Forecasting and Information System The system is foreseen to provide in real time forecast of the spatial/temporal ...
D. Syrakov; K. Ganev; M. Prodanova; N. Miloshev; G. Jordanov; E. Katragkou; D. Melas; A. Poupkou; K. Markakis
Frequency Dependence in Forecast Skill
A method is proposed to calculate measures of forecast skill for high, medium and low temporal frequency variations in the atmosphere. This method is applied to a series of 128 consecutive 1 to 10-day forecasts produced at NMC with their ...
H. M. van Den Dool; Suranjana Saha
Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion
Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE))
A process called ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) uses the heat energy stored in the Earth's oceans to generate electricity.
Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation by Susan H. Holte In this paper, the Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting (OIAF) of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) evaluates the projections published in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO), (1) by comparing the projections from the Annual Energy Outlook 1982 through the Annual Energy Outlook 2001 with actual historical values. A set of major consumption, production, net import, price, economic, and carbon dioxide emissions variables are included in the evaluation, updating similar papers from previous years. These evaluations also present the reasons and rationales for significant differences. The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has been providing an
Title of Paper Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Title of Paper Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation by Susan H. Holte OIAF has been providing an evaluation of the forecasts in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) annually since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on that of the prior year by adding the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. However, the underlying reasons for deviations between the projections and realized history tend to be the same from one evaluation to the next. The most significant conclusions are: Natural gas has generally been the fuel with the least accurate forecasts of consumption, production, and prices. Natural gas was the last fossil fuel to be deregulated following the strong regulation of energy markets in the 1970s and early 1980s. Even after deregulation, the behavior
Ground subsidence due to mining operations. (Latest citations from the Compendex database). Published Search
The bibliography contains citations concerning ground subsidence associated with mining operations. Mine subsidence is discussed with reference to mathematical modeling, forecasting extent of cavitation, and rock mechanics and mechanisms of stress relaxation. Damage to above and below-ground structures as well as agricultural areas, and mining techniques designed to prevent or reduce subsidence are included. Monitoring of subsidence and detection of cavitation for surface, underground, and ocean floor mining areas are discussed and examples are analyzed. Subsidence due to aquifer water removal is referenced in a related bibliography. (Contains 250 citations and includes a subject term index and title list.)
A 1�10-Day Ensemble Forecasting Scheme for the Major River Basins of Bangladesh: Forecasting Severe Floods of 2003�07
This paper describes a fully automated scheme that has provided calibrated 1�10-day ensemble river discharge forecasts and predictions of severe flooding of the Brahmaputra and Ganges Rivers as they flow into Bangladesh; it has been operational ...
Thomas M. Hopson; Peter J. Webster
The Design and Testing of the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System
The Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) has proven itself to be competitive with any of the large forecast models run by the large operational forecast centers around the world. The navy depends on NOGAPS for an ...
Thomas E. Rosmond
Impact of Wind PowerImpact of Wind Power Forecasting on Unit
Impact of Wind PowerImpact of Wind Power Forecasting on Unit Commitment and Dispatchp Jianhui Wang and University of Porto, Portugal 8th Int. Wind Integration Workshop, Bremen, Germany, Oct. 14 2009 #12;Outline of the information in wind power forecasts in system and market operationsin system and market operations Stochastic
Hudson, Randy
A PGAS Implementation by Co-design of the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System (IFS)
Today the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) runs a 16 km global T1279 operational weather forecast model using 1,536 cores of an IBM Power7. Following the historical evolution in resolution upgrades, ECMWF could expect to be ... Keywords: PGAS, COARRAYS, FORTRAN2008, CRESTA,
George Mozdzynski, Mats Hamrud, Nils Wedi, Jens Doleschal, Harvey Richardson
Non-stationary Signal Forecasting by Neural Network with Modified Neurons
This paper presents the non-stationary power signal forecasting by using a neural network with modified neurons for PJM data set provided by Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO). In this data set, the load information is the sum of power load ... Keywords: load, forecasting, neural model, modified neurons
Chih-Chien Huang; Yi-Ching Lin; Yu-Ju Chen; Shuming T. Wang; Rey-Chue Hwang
Understanding User Decision Making and the Value of Improved Precipitation Forecasts: Lessons From a Case Study
A case study of the impact of improved precipitation forecasts on the snow-fighting operations of the New York State Thruway is reported. The goal was to use currently available data and literature on forecast process, communication, and use in ...
Thomas R. Stewart; Roger Pielke Jr.; Radhika Nath
Impact of a New Radiation Package, McRad, in the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System
A new radiation package, �McRad,� has become operational with cycle 32R2 of the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). McRad includes an improved description of the land surface ...
J-J. Morcrette; H. W. Barker; J. N. S. Cole; M. J. Iacono; R. Pincus
World lpg forecast and implications for the U. S. Merchant Marine, 1978-1990
This study summarizes historical and current LPG trade and vessels operating worldwide. It also forecasts LPG trade required for the U.S. and other major markets through 1990. Using an economic model to assess the market for LPG ships, the study forecasts vessel requirements for U.S. LPG trade and prospects for building required vessels in the U.S.
Short-term wind speed forecasting based on a hybrid model
Wind power is currently one of the types of renewable energy with a large generation capacity. However, operation of wind power generation is very challenging because of the intermittent and stochastic nature of the wind speed. Wind speed forecasting ... Keywords: Forecasting, RBF neural networks, Seasonal adjustment, Wavelet transform, Wind speed
Wenyu Zhang, Jujie Wang, Jianzhou Wang, Zengbao Zhao, Meng Tian
Texas Wind Energy Forecasting System Development and Testing: Phase 2: 12-Month Testing
Wind energy forecasting systems are expected to support system operation in cases where wind generation contributes more than a few percent of total generating capacity. This report presents final results from the Texas Wind Energy Forecasting System Development and Testing Project at a 75-MW wind project in west Texas.
A variable spread fuzzy linear regression model with higher explanatory power and forecasting accuracy
Fuzzy regression models have been applied to operational research (OR) applications such as forecasting. Some of previous studies on fuzzy regression analysis obtain crisp regression coefficients for eliminating the problem of increasing spreads for ... Keywords: Forecasting, Fuzzy inference, Fuzzy sets, Linear regression, Mathematical programming
Shih-Pin Chen; Jr-Fong Dang
Nettuno: Analysis of a Wind and Wave Forecast System in the Mediterranean Sea
Nettuno is a wind and wave forecast system in the Mediterranean Sea. It has been operational since 2009 producing twice a day high resolution forecasts for the next 72 hours. We have carried out a detailed analysis of the results, both in space ...
Luciana Bertotti; Luigi Cavaleri; Layla Loffredo; Lucio Torrisi
Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Maximum and Minimum Forecast for SRS
This report is the third phase (Phase III) of the Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Forecast for Facilities at the Savannah River Site (SRS). Phase I of the forecast, Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Forecast for Facilities at SRS, forecasts the yearly quantities of low-level waste (LLW), hazardous waste, mixed waste, and transuranic (TRU) wastes generated over the next 30 years by operations, decontamination and decommissioning and environmental restoration (ER) activities at the Savannah River Site. The Phase II report, Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Forecast by Treatability Group (U), provides a 30-year forecast by waste treatability group for operations, decontamination and decommissioning, and ER activities. In addition, a 30-year forecast by waste stream has been provided for operations in Appendix A of the Phase II report. The solid wastes stored or generated at SRS must be treated and disposed of in accordance with federal, state, and local laws and regulations. To evaluate, select, and justify the use of promising treatment technologies and to evaluate the potential impact to the environment, the generic waste categories described in the Phase I report were divided into smaller classifications with similar physical, chemical, and radiological characteristics. These smaller classifications, defined within the Phase II report as treatability groups, can then be used in the Waste Management Environmental Impact Statement process to evaluate treatment options. The waste generation forecasts in the Phase II report includes existing waste inventories. Existing waste inventories, which include waste streams from continuing operations and stored wastes from discontinued operations, were not included in the Phase I report. Maximum and minimum forecasts serve as upper and lower boundaries for waste generation. This report provides the maximum and minimum forecast by waste treatability group for operation, decontamination and decommissioning, and ER activities.
Thomas, L.C.
A survey on wind power ramp forecasting.
The increasing use of wind power as a source of electricity poses new challenges with regard to both power production and load balance in the electricity grid. This new source of energy is volatile and highly variable. The only way to integrate such power into the grid is to develop reliable and accurate wind power forecasting systems. Electricity generated from wind power can be highly variable at several different timescales: sub-hourly, hourly, daily, and seasonally. Wind energy, like other electricity sources, must be scheduled. Although wind power forecasting methods are used, the ability to predict wind plant output remains relatively low for short-term operation. Because instantaneous electrical generation and consumption must remain in balance to maintain grid stability, wind power's variability can present substantial challenges when large amounts of wind power are incorporated into a grid system. A critical issue is ramp events, which are sudden and large changes (increases or decreases) in wind power. This report presents an overview of current ramp definitions and state-of-the-art approaches in ramp event forecasting.
Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Matias, L.; Botterud, A.; Wang, J. (Decision and Information Sciences); (INESC Porto)
Probabilistic aspects of meteorological and ozone regional ensemble forecasts
This study investigates whether probabilistic ozone forecasts from an ensemble can be made with skill; i.e., high verification resolution and reliability. Twenty-eight ozone forecasts were generated over the Lower Fraser Valley, British Columbia, Canada, for the 5-day period 11-15 August 2004, and compared with 1-hour averaged measurements of ozone concentrations at five stations. The forecasts were obtained by driving the CMAQ model with four meteorological forecasts and seven emission scenarios: a control run, {+-} 50% NO{sub x}, {+-} 50% VOC, and {+-} 50% NO{sub x} combined with VOC. Probabilistic forecast quality is verified using relative operating characteristic curves, Talagrand diagrams, and a new reliability index. Results show that both meteorology and emission perturbations are needed to have a skillful probabilistic forecast system--the meteorology perturbation is important to capture the ozone temporal and spatial distribution, and the emission perturbation is needed to span the range of ozone-concentration magnitudes. Emission perturbations are more important than meteorology perturbations for capturing the likelihood of high ozone concentrations. Perturbations involving NO{sub x} resulted in a more skillful probabilistic forecast for the episode analyzed, and therefore the 50% perturbation values appears to span much of the emission uncertainty for this case. All of the ensembles analyzed show a high ozone concentration bias in the Talagrand diagrams, even when the biases from the unperturbed emissions forecasts are removed from all ensemble members. This result indicates nonlinearity in the ensemble, which arises from both ozone chemistry and its interaction with input from particular meteorological models.
Monache, L D; Hacker, J; Zhou, Y; Deng, X; Stull, R
Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix D: Wholesale Electricity Price Forecast
Forecast Introduction................................................................... 16 The Base Case Forecast..................................................................... 16 Base Case Price Forecast
Forecasting Cloud Cover and Atmospheric Seeing for Astronomical Observing: Application and Evaluation of the Global Forecast System
To explore the issue of performing a non-interactive numerical weather forecast with an operational global model in assist of astronomical observing, we use the Xu-Randall cloud scheme and the Trinquet-Vernin AXP seeing model with the global numerical output from the Global Forecast System to generate 3-72h forecasts for cloud coverage and atmospheric seeing, and compare them with sequence observations from 9 sites from different regions of the world with different climatic background in the period of January 2008 to December 2009. The evaluation shows that the proportion of prefect forecast of cloud cover forecast varies from ~50% to ~85%. The probability of cloud detection is estimated to be around ~30% to ~90%, while the false alarm rate is generally moderate and is much lower than the probability of detection in most cases. The seeing forecast has a moderate mean difference (absolute mean difference <0.3" in most cases) and root-mean-square-error or RMSE (0.2"-0.4" in most cases) comparing with the obs...
Ye, Q -z
Viability, Development, and Reliability Assessment of Coupled Coastal Forecasting Systems
Real-time wave forecasts are critical to a variety of coastal and offshore opera- tions. NOAA�s global wave forecasts, at present, do not extend into many coastal regions of interest. Even after more than two decades of the historical Exxon Valdez disaster, Cook Inlet (CI) and Prince William Sound (PWS) are regions that suffer from a lack of accurate wave forecast information. This dissertation develops high- resolution integrated wave forecasting schemes for these regions in order to meet the critical requirements associated with shipping, commercial and sport fishing vessel safety, and oil spill response. This dissertation also performs a detailed qualitative and quantitative assessment of the impact of various forcing functions on wave pre- dictions, and develops maps showing extreme variations in significant wave heights (SWHs). For instance, it is found that the SWH could vary by as much as 1 m in the northern CI region in the presence of currents (hence justifying the need for integration of the wave model with a circulation model). Such maps can be useful for several engineering operations, and could also serve as guidance tool as to what can be expected in certain regions. Aside from the system development, the issue of forecast reliability is also addressed for PWS region in the context of the associated uncertainty which confronts the manager of engineering operations or other planners. For this purpose, high-resolution 36-h daily forecasts of SWHs are compared with measurements from buoys and satellites for about a year. The results show that 70% of the peak SWHs in the range 5-8 m were predicted with an accuracy of 15% or less for a forecast lead time of 9 h. On average, results indicate 70% or greater likelihood of the prediction falling within a tolerance of �(1*RMSE) for all lead times. This analysis could not be performed for CI due to lack of data sources.
Singhal, Gaurav
Quantitative Precipitation Forecast Techniques for Use in Hydrologic Forecasting
Quantitative hydrologic forecasting usually requires knowledge of the spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation. First, it is important to accurately measure the precipitation falling over a particular watershed of interest. Second, ...
Konstantine P. Georgakakos; Michael D. Hudlow
Load Forecast For use in Resource Adequacy
Load Forecast 2019 For use in Resource Adequacy Massoud Jourabchi #12;In today's presentation d l Load forecast methodology Drivers of the forecast f i Treatment of conservation Incorporating impact of weather Forecast for 2019 #12;Regional Loads (MWA and MW)Regional Loads (MWA and MW
Forecast Technical Document Felling and Removals
Forecast Technical Document Felling and Removals Forecasts A document describing how volume fellings and removals are handled in the 2011 Production Forecast system. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley Halsall #12;PF2011 Felling and removals forecasts Background A fellings and removals
CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST Volume 1: Statewide Electricity forecast is the combined product of the hard work and expertise of numerous staff members in the Demand the commercial sector forecast. Mehrzad Soltani Nia helped prepare the industrial forecast. Miguel Garcia
Combining forecast weights: Why and how?
This paper proposes a procedure called forecast weight averaging which is a specific combination of forecast weights obtained from different methods of constructing forecast weights for the purpose of improving the accuracy of pseudo out of sample forecasting. It is found that under certain specified conditions
Yip Chee Yin; Ng Kok-Haur; Lim Hock-Eam
PROBLEMS OF FORECAST1 Dmitry KUCHARAVY
1 PROBLEMS OF FORECAST1 Dmitry KUCHARAVY firstname.lastname@example.com Roland DE GUIO roland for the purpose of Innovative Design. First, a brief analysis of problems for existing forecasting methods of the forecast errors. Second, using a contradiction analysis, a set of problems related to technology forecast
Assessing Forecast Accuracy Measures Department of Economics
Assessing Forecast Accuracy Measures Zhuo Chen Department of Economics Heady Hall 260 Iowa State forecast accuracy measures. In the theoretical direction, for comparing two forecasters, only when the errors are stochastically ordered, the ranking of the forecasts is basically independent of the form
Current status of ForecastCurrent status of Forecast 2005 EPACT is in the model
1 1 Current status of ForecastCurrent status of Forecast 2005 EPACT is in the model 2007 Federal prices are being inputted into the model 2 Sales forecast Select yearsSales forecast Select years --Draft 0.53% Irrigation 2.76% Annual Growth Rates Preliminary Electricity ForecastAnnual Growth Rates
Can earnings forecasts be improved by taking into account the forecast bias?
Can earnings forecasts be improved by taking into account the forecast bias? François DOSSOU allow the calculation of earnings adjusted forecasts, for horizons from 1 to 24 months. We explain variables. From the forecast evaluation statistics viewpoints, the adjusted forecasts make it possible quasi
Ocean Map | Data.gov
Map Ocean Data Tools Technical Guide Map Gallery Regional Planning Feedback Ocean You are here Data.gov Communities Ocean Map Gallery Planning for ocean, coastal, and Great...
Wind Power Forecasting: State-of-the-Art 2009
operator (ISO) Generate electricity to meet loads Strive to maximize profits Independent system rules Post next-day weather and load forecasts Compute and post market clearing prices Post unitElectric Power Market Simulations Using Individuals as Agents Guenter Conzelmann Argonne National
The New NMC Mesoscale Eta Model: Description and Forecast Examples
In mid-1994 a new version of the Eta Model will begin producing operational forecast guidance down to mesoscale ranges. This version will have a horizontal resolution of approximately 30 km and about 50 layers in the vertical. A summary of the ...
Thomas L. Black
Downscaling Extended Weather Forecasts for Hydrologic Prediction
Weather and climate forecasts are critical inputs to hydrologic forecasting systems. The National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) issues 8-15 days outlook daily for the U.S. based on the Medium Range Forecast (MRF) model, which is a global model applied at about 2? spatial resolution. Because of the relatively coarse spatial resolution, weather forecasts produced by the MRF model cannot be applied directly to hydrologic forecasting models that require high spatial resolution to represent land surface hydrology. A mesoscale atmospheric model was used to dynamically downscale the 1-8 day extended global weather forecasts to test the feasibility of hydrologic forecasting through this model nesting approach. Atmospheric conditions of each 8-day forecast during the period 1990-2000 were used to provide initial and boundary conditions for the mesoscale model to produce an 8-day atmospheric forecast for the western U.S. at 30 km spatial resolution. To examine the impact of initialization of the land surface state on forecast skill, two sets of simulations were performed with the land surface state initialized based on the global forecasts versus land surface conditions from a continuous mesoscale simulation driven by the NCEP reanalysis. Comparison of the skill of the global and downscaled precipitation forecasts in the western U.S. showed higher skill for the downscaled forecasts at all precipitation thresholds and increasingly larger differences at the larger thresholds. Analyses of the surface temperature forecasts show that the mesoscale forecasts generally reduced the root-mean-square error by about 1.5 C compared to the global forecasts, because of the much better resolved topography at 30 km spatial resolution. In addition, initialization of the land surface states has large impacts on the temperature forecasts, but not the precipitation forecasts. The improvements in forecast skill using downscaling could be potentially significant for improving hydrologic forecasts for managing river basins.
Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Qian, Yun
Sampling Errors in Seasonal Forecasting
The limited numbers of start dates and ensemble sizes in seasonal forecasts lead to sampling errors in predictions. Defining the magnitude of these sampling errors would be useful for end users as well as informing decisions on resource ...
Stephen Cusack; Alberto Arribas
Scoring Rules for Forecast Verification
The problem of probabilistic forecast verification is approached from a theoretical point of view starting from three basic desiderata: additivity, exclusive dependence on physical observations (�locality�), and strictly proper behavior. By ...
Riccardo Benedetti
Wavelets and Field Forecast Verification
Current field forecast verification measures are inadequate, primarily because they compress the comparison between two complex spatial field processes into one number. Discrete wavelet transforms (DWTs) applied to analysis and contemporaneous ...
William M. Briggs; Richard A. Levine
Fuzzy forecasting with DNA computing
There are many forecasting techniques including: exponential smoothing, ARIMA model, GARCH model, neural networks and genetic algorithm, etc. Since financial time series may be influenced by many factors, conventional model based techniques and hard ...
Don Jyh-Fu Jeng; Junzo Watada; Berlin Wu; Jui-Yu Wu
Richardson's Barotropic Forecast: A Reappraisal
To elucidate his numerical technique and to examine the effectiveness of geostrophic initial winds, Lewis Fry Richardson carried out an idealized forecast using the linear shallow-water equations and simple analytical pressure and velocity ...
Peter Lynch
Forecast Energy | Open Energy Information
Forecast Energy Forecast Energy Jump to: navigation, search Name Forecast Energy Address 2320 Marinship Way, Suite 300 Place Sausalito, California Zip 94965 Sector Services Product Intelligent Monitoring and Forecasting Services Year founded 2010 Number of employees 11-50 Company Type For profit Website http://www.forecastenergy.net Coordinates 37.865647°, -122.496315° Loading map... {"minzoom":false,"mappingservice":"googlemaps3","type":"ROADMAP","zoom":14,"types":["ROADMAP","SATELLITE","HYBRID","TERRAIN"],"geoservice":"google","maxzoom":false,"width":"600px","height":"350px","centre":false,"title":"","label":"","icon":"","visitedicon":"","lines":[],"polygons":[],"circles":[],"rectangles":[],"copycoords":false,"static":false,"wmsoverlay":"","layers":[],"controls":["pan","zoom","type","scale","streetview"],"zoomstyle":"DEFAULT","typestyle":"DEFAULT","autoinfowindows":false,"kml":[],"gkml":[],"fusiontables":[],"resizable":false,"tilt":0,"kmlrezoom":false,"poi":true,"imageoverlays":[],"markercluster":false,"searchmarkers":"","locations":[{"text":"","title":"","link":null,"lat":37.865647,"lon":-122.496315,"alt":0,"address":"","icon":"","group":"","inlineLabel":"","visitedicon":""}]}
Conditional Probabilities, Relative Operating Characteristics, and Relative Operating Levels
The relative operating characteristic (ROC) curve is a highly flexible method for representing the quality of dichotomous, categorical, continuous, and probabilistic forecasts. The method is based on ratios that measure the proportions of events ...
Simon J. Mason; Nicholas E. Graham
The Stratospheric Extension of the Canadian Global Deterministic Medium-Range Weather Forecasting System and Its Impact on Tropospheric Forecasts
A new system that resolves the stratosphere was implemented for operational medium-range weather forecasts at the Canadian Meteorological Centre. The model lid was raised from 10 to 0.1 hPa, parameterization schemes for nonorographic gravity wave ...
Martin Charron; Saroja Polavarapu; Mark Buehner; P. A. Vaillancourt; C�cilien Charette; Michel Roch; Jos�e Morneau; Louis Garand; Josep M. Aparicio; Stephen MacPherson; Simon Pellerin; Judy St-James; Sylvain Heilliette
An Empirical Blowing Snow Forecast Technique for the Canadian Arctic and the Prairie Provinces
Blowing snow has a major impact on transportation and public safety. The goal of this study is to provide an operational technique for forecasting high-impact blowing snow on the Canadian arctic and the Prairie provinces using historical ...
David G. Baggaley; John M. Hanesiak
Human Factors Psychology in the Support of Forecasting: The Design of Advanced Meteorological Workstations
Advanced Meteorological Processing (AMP) systems will provide a workstation environment to support the activities of operational forecasters and research meteorologists. AMP system research and development projects are underway at laboratories of ...
Robert R. Hoffman
Sensitivity of Forecast Rainfall in a Texas Convective System to Soil Moisture and Convective Parameterization
The impact of soil moisture on the forecast of a small-scale convective system, and sensitivity of results to the convective parameterization used, are investigated through Eta Model simulations (run in an operational-like setting) of a ...
William A. Gallus Jr.; Moti Segal
An Interactive Method for Estimating Maximum Hailstone Size from Forecast Soundings
A diagnostic/prognostic sounding analysis package is presented to aid operational forecasters. First, a diagnostic sounding analysis is shown which computes standard thermodynamic parameters while including a scheme to estimate the maximum hail ...
James T. Moore; John P. Pino
Long-Lead Forecasts of Seasonal Precipitation in Africa Using CCA
A potentially operational forecast system for 3-month total precipitation for three sections of the African continent has been developed at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center using the statistical method of canonical correlation analysis (CCA). The ...
Anthony G. Barnston; Wassila Thiao; Vadlamani Kumar
A Reduced Spectral Transform for the NCEP Seasonal Forecast Global Spectral Atmospheric Model
A reduced spectral transformation is applied to the NCEP atmospheric global spectral model for operational seasonal forecasts. The magnitude of the associated Legendre coefficient provides a basis for this new transformation, which is a simple ...
Hann-Ming Henry Juang
3D Convective Storm Identification, Tracking, and Forecasting�An Enhanced TITAN Algorithm
Storm identification, tracking, and forecasting make up an essential part of weather radar and severe weather surveillance operations. Existing nowcasting algorithms using radar data can be generally classified into two categories: centroid and ...
Lei Han; Shengxue Fu; Lifeng Zhao; Yongguang Zheng; Hongqing Wang; Yinjing Lin
A Real-Time Scheme for the Prediction of Forecast Skill
During the winter of 1988/89, a real-time experimental scheme to predict skill of the ECMWF operational forecast was devised. The scheme was based on statistical relations between skill scores (the predictands) and a number of predictors ...
Franco Molteni; T. N. Palmer
Remarks on Northern Hemisphere Forecast Error Sensitivity from 1996 to 2000
The sensitivity of 2-day Northern Hemisphere extratropical forecast errors to changes in initial conditions, computed daily over a 4-yr period, is documented. The sensitivity is computed using the (dry) adjoint of the Navy Operational Global ...
C. A. Reynolds; R. Gelaro
Weather and Forecasting Challenges in the Pacific Region of the National Weather Service
The large area of responsibility covered by the Pacific Region of the National Weather Service provides a unique set of challenges to operational forecasters. Extratropical, subtropical, and tropical meteorological phenomena on a wide range of ...
Kevin R. Kodama; Steven Businger
Incorporating Hurricane Forecast Uncertainty into a Decision Support Application for Power Outage Modeling
A variety of decision-support systems, such as those employed by energy and utility companies, use the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecasts of track and intensity to inform operational decision-making as a hurricane approaches. Track and intensity ...
Steven M. Quiring; Andrea B. Schumacher; Seth D. Guikema
The Impact of Dropwindsonde and Supplemental Rawinsonde Observations on Track Forecasts for Hurricane Irene (2011)
Due to the threat that Hurricane Irene (2011) posed to the United States, supplemental observations were collected for assimilation into operational numerical models in the hope of improving forecasts of the storm. Synoptic surveillance aircraft ...
Sharanya J. Majumdar; Michael J. Brennan; Kate Howard
An Experiment to Measure the Value of Statistical Probability Forecasts for Airports
The economic value of weather forecasts for airports for commercial aviation is investigated by introducing financial data into the decision-making process for fuel carriage by aircraft. Using specific operating costs for a given flight, an ...
Ross Keith; Stephen M. Leyton
Toward a Combined Seasonal Weather and Crop Productivity Forecasting System: Determination of the Working Spatial Scale
A methodology is presented for the development of a combined seasonal weather and crop productivity forecasting system. The first stage of the methodology is the determination of the spatial scale(s) on which the system could operate; this ...
A. J. Challinor; J. M. Slingo; T. R. Wheeler; P. Q. Craufurd; D. I. F. Grimes
Test of a Poor Man�s Ensemble Prediction System for Short-Range Probability Forecasting
Current operational ensemble prediction systems (EPSs) are designed specifically for medium-range forecasting, but there is also considerable interest in predictability in the short range, particularly for potential severe-weather developments. A ...
A. Arribas; K. B. Robertson; K. R. Mylne
About the Reliability of Manual Model PV Corrections to Improve Forecasts
The National Weather Forecast Centre of M�t�o-France has developed a tool that corrects the state of the atmosphere within the Action de Recherche Petite Echelle Grande Echelle (ARPEGE) operational global model by adjusting the potential vorticity ...
Philippe Arbogast; Karine Maynard; Catherine Piriou
Data Mining Numerical Model Output for Single-Station Cloud-Ceiling Forecast Algorithms
Accurate cloud-ceiling-height forecasts derived from numerical weather prediction (NWP) model data are useful for aviation and other interests where low cloud ceilings have an impact on operations. A demonstration of the usefulness of data-mining ...
Richard L. Bankert; Michael Hadjimichael
Characterization of Weekly Cumulative Rainfall Forecasts over Meteorological Subdivisions of India Using a GCM
Weekly cumulative rainfall forecasts were made for the meteorologically homogeneous areas of the Indian subcontinent, divided into meteorological subdivisions, by performing 7-day integrations of the operational Indian T80 Global Spectral Model ...
S. A. Saseendran; S. V. Singh; L. S. Rathore; Someshwar Das
Using Precipitation Observations in a Mesoscale Short-Range Ensemble Analysis and Forecasting System
A simple method to assimilate precipitation data from a synthesis of radar and gauge data is developed to operate alongside an ensemble Kalman filter that assimilates hourly surface observations. The mesoscale ensemble forecast system consists of ...
Tadashi Fujita; David J. Stensrud; David C. Dowell
Impact of ASCAT soil moisture assimilation on regional precipitation forecasts: A case study for Austria
In this study, remotely sensed soil moisture data from the Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) on the meteorological operational (METOP) satellite are assimilated in the regional forecasting model ALADIN-AUSTRIA using a simplified Extended Kalman ...
Stefan Schneider; Yong Wang; Wolfgang Wagner; Jean-Francois Mahfouf
Wind Speeds at Heights Crucial for Wind Energy: Measurements and Verification of Forecasts
Wind speed measurements from one year from meteorological towers and wind turbines at heights between 20 and 250 m for various European sites are analyzed and are compared with operational short-term forecasts of the global ECMWF model. The ...
Susanne Drechsel; Georg J. Mayr; Jakob W. Messner; Reto Stauffer
Dynamical Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Errors. Part I: Tropical Region Error Sources
All highly erroneous (>300 n mi or 555 km at 72 h) Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) and U.S. Navy version of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory model (GFDN) tropical cyclone track forecasts in the western ...
Lester E. Carr III; Russell L. Elsberry
Long-Lead Forecasts of Seasonal Precipitation in the Tropical Pacific Islands Using CCA
A potentially operational system for 3-month total precipitation forecasts for island stations in the tropical Pacific has been developed at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center using the statistical method of canonical correlation analysis (CCA). ...
Yuxiang He; Anthony G. Barnston
Collaboration between Forecasters and Research Scientists at the NSSL and SPC: The Spring Program
Collaborative activities between operational forecasters and meteorological research scientists have the potential to provide significant benefits to both groups and to society as a whole, yet such collaboration is rare. An exception to this ...
John S. Kain; Paul R. Janish; Steven J. Weiss; Russell S. Schneider; Michael E. Baldwin; Harold E. Brooks
Application of Artificial Neural Network Forecasts to Predict Fog at Canberra International Airport
The occurrence of fog can significantly impact air transport operations, and plays an important role in aviation safety. The economic value of aviation forecasts for Sydney Airport alone in 1993 was estimated at $6.8 million (Australian dollars) ...
Dustin Fabbian; Richard de Dear; Stephen Lellyett
Impact of Resolution Degradation of the Initial Condition on Typhoon Track Forecasts
The operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems at the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) indicated that the typhoon track forecasts made by the control member of the ensemble prediction system (EPS) tended to be worse than those made ...
Takemasa Miyoshi; Takuya Komori; Hitoshi Yonehara; Ryota Sakai; Munenhiko Yamaguchi
Field Significance Revisited: Spatial Bias Errors in Forecasts as Applied to the Eta Model
The spatial structure of bias errors in numerical model output is valuable to both model developers and operational forecasters, especially if the field containing the structure itself has statistical significance in the face of naturally ...
Kimberly L. Elmore; Michael E. Baldwin; David M. Schultz
Seasonal Temperature Forecasts as Products of Antecedent Linear and Spatial Temperature Arrays
Our objective is to evaluate the potential for extracting the maximum information contained in antecedent temperature patterns that operationally could be used in formulating winter seasonal forecasts in the United States. In particular, ...
Merlin P. Lawson; Randall S. Cerveny
A Comparison of Forecast Error Generators for Modeling Wind and Load Uncertainty
This paper presents four algorithms to generate random forecast error time series. The performance of four algorithms is compared. The error time series are used to create real-time (RT), hour-ahead (HA), and day-ahead (DA) wind and load forecast time series that statistically match historically observed forecasting data sets used in power grid operation to study the net load balancing need in variable generation integration studies. The four algorithms are truncated-normal distribution models, state-space based Markov models, seasonal autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models, and a stochastic-optimization based approach. The comparison is made using historical DA load forecast and actual load values to generate new sets of DA forecasts with similar stoical forecast error characteristics (i.e., mean, standard deviation, autocorrelation, and cross-correlation). The results show that all methods generate satisfactory results. One method may preserve one or two required statistical characteristics better the other methods, but may not preserve other statistical characteristics as well compared with the other methods. Because the wind and load forecast error generators are used in wind integration studies to produce wind and load forecasts time series for stochastic planning processes, it is sometimes critical to use multiple methods to generate the error time series to obtain a statistically robust result. Therefore, this paper discusses and compares the capabilities of each algorithm to preserve the characteristics of the historical forecast data sets.
Lu, Ning; Diao, Ruisheng; Hafen, Ryan P.; Samaan, Nader A.; Makarov, Yuri V.
Evaluation of Wave Forecasts Consistent with Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Wind Forecasts
An algorithm to generate wave fields consistent with forecasts from the official U.S. tropical cyclone forecast centers has been made available in near�real time to forecasters since summer 2007. The algorithm removes the tropical cyclone from ...
Charles R. Sampson; Paul A. Wittmann; Efren A. Serra; Hendrik L. Tolman; Jessica Schauer; Timothy Marchok
Weather forecasting : the next generation : the potential use and implementation of ensemble forecasting
This thesis discusses ensemble forecasting, a promising new weather forecasting technique, from various viewpoints relating not only to its meteorological aspects but also to its user and policy aspects. Ensemble forecasting ...
Goto, Susumu
Ability to Forecast Regional Soil Moisture with a Distributed Hydrological Model Using ECMWF Rainfall Forecasts
This study mimics an online forecast system to provide nine day-ahead forecasts of regional soil moisture. It uses modified ensemble rainfall forecasts from the numerical weather prediction model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ...
J. M. Schuurmans; M. F. P. Bierkens
Spatial Structure, Forecast Errors, and Predictability of the South Asian Monsoon in CFS Monthly Retrospective Forecasts
The spatial structure of the boreal summer South Asian monsoon in the ensemble mean of monthly retrospective forecasts by the Climate Forecast System of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction is examined. The forecast errors and ...
Hae-Kyung Lee Drbohlav; V. Krishnamurthy
What Is a Good Forecast? An Essay on the Nature of Goodness in Weather Forecasting
Differences of opinion exist among forecasters�and between forecasters and users�regarding the meaning of the phrase �good (bad) weather forecasts.� These differences of opinion are fueled by a lack of clarity and/or understanding concerning the ...
Allan H. Murphy
The Potential Impact of Using Persistence as a Reference Forecast on Perceived Forecast Skill
Skill is defined as actual forecast performance relative to the performance of a reference forecast. It is shown that the choice of reference (e.g., random or persistence) can affect the perceived performance of the forecast system. Two scores, ...
Marion P. Mittermaier
The Complex Relationship between Forecast Skill and Forecast Value: A Real-World Analysis
For routine forecasts of temperature and precipitation, the relative skill advantage of human forecasters with respect to the numerical�statistical guidance is small (and diminishing). Since the relationship between forecast skill and the value ...
Paul J. Roebber; Lance F. Bosart
A.: Modeling and forecasting electricity loads: A comparison
In this paper we study two statistical approaches to load forecasting. Both of them model electricity load as a sum of two components � a deterministic (representing seasonalities) and a stochastic (representing noise). They differ in the choice of the seasonality reduction method. Model A utilizes differencing, while Model B uses a recently developed seasonal volatility technique. In both models the stochastic component is described by an ARMA time series. Models are tested on a time series of system-wide loads from the California power market and compared with the official forecast of the California System Operator (CAISO). 1.
Rafa? Weron
Light truck forecasts
The recent dramatic increase in the number of light trucks (109% between 1963 and 1974) has prompted concern about the energy consequences of the growing popularity of the light truck. An estimate of the future number of light trucks is considered to be a reasonable first step in assessing the energy impact of these vehicles. The monograph contains forecasts based on two models and six scenarios. The coefficients for the models have been derived by ordinary least squares regression of national level time series data. The first model is a two stage model. The first stage estimates the number of light trucks and cars (together), and the second stage applies a share's submodel to determine the number of light trucks. The second model is a simultaneous equation model. The two models track one another remarkably well, within about 2%. The scenarios were chosen to be consistent with those used in the Lindsey-Kaufman study Projection of Light Truck Population to Year 2025. Except in the case of the most dismal economic scenario, the number of light trucks is expected to increase from the 1974 level of 0.09 light truck per person to about 0.12 light truck per person in 1995.
Liepins, G.E.
On-line economic optimization of energy systems using weather forecast information.
We establish an on-line optimization framework to exploit weather forecast information in the operation of energy systems. We argue that anticipating the weather conditions can lead to more proactive and cost-effective operations. The framework is based on the solution of a stochastic dynamic real-time optimization (D-RTO) problem incorporating forecasts generated from a state-of-the-art weather prediction model. The necessary uncertainty information is extracted from the weather model using an ensemble approach. The accuracy of the forecast trends and uncertainty bounds are validated using real meteorological data. We present a numerical simulation study in a building system to demonstrate the developments.
Investigating the Correlation Between Wind and Solar Power Forecast Errors in the Western Interconnection: Preprint
Wind and solar power generations differ from conventional energy generation because of the variable and uncertain nature of their power output. This variability and uncertainty can have significant impacts on grid operations. Thus, short-term forecasting of wind and solar generation is uniquely helpful for power system operations to balance supply and demand in an electricity system. This paper investigates the correlation between wind and solar power forecasting errors.
Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.
Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation-Table 1
Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (EIA)
Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation > Table 1 Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Table 1. Comparison of Absolute Percent Errors for AEO Forecast Evaluation, 1996 to...
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION FINAL DEMAND FORECAST FORMS AND INSTRUCTIONS FOR THE 2007 INTEGRATED Table of Contents General Instructions for Demand Forecast Submittals.............................................................................. 4 Protocols for Submitted Demand Forecasts
Forecasting new product penetration with flexible substitution patterns
choice model for forecasting demand for alternative-fuel7511, Urban Travel Demand Forecasting Project, Institute of89 (1999) 109�129 Forecasting new product penetration with ?
Brownstone, David; Train, Kenneth
Overestimation Reduction in Forecasting Telecommuting as a TDM Policy
M. , Ethics and advocacy in forecasting for public policy.change and social forecasting: the case of telecommuting asOverestimation Reduction in Forecasting Telecommuting as a
Tal, Gil
Forecasting US CO2 Emissions Using State-Level Data
F. Hendry (eds), Economic Forecasting, Blackwell Publishing,W. : 2002, Macroeconomic forecasting using di?usion indexes,2003, Macroeconomic forecasting in the euro area: Country
Steinhauser, Ralf; Auffhammer, Maximilian
NoVaS Transformations: Flexible Inference for Volatility Forecasting
and Correlation Forecasting� in G. Elliott, C.W.J.Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Amsterdam: North-Holland,Transformations�, forthcoming in Forecasting in the Presence
Politis, Dimitris N; Thomakos, Dimitrios D
7511, Urban Travel Demand Forecasting Project, Institute ofchoice model for forecasting demand for alternative-fuel89 (1999) 109�129 Forecasting new product penetration with
Earthquake Forecasting in Diverse Tectonic Zones of the Globe
Long-term probabilistic forecasting of earthquakes, J.2000), Probabilistic forecasting of earthquakes, Geophys. J.F.F. (2006), The EEPAS forecasting model and the probability
Kagan, Y. Y.; Jackson, D. D.
Ensemble-based methods for forecasting census in hospital units
P, Fitzgerald G: Regression forecasting of patient admissionapproach to modeling and forecasting demand in the emergencySJ, Haug PJ, Snow GL: Forecasting daily patient volumes in
Koestler, Devin C; Ombao, Hernando; Bender, Jesse
Forecasting Danerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications of Ensemble Statistical Procedures
costs could alter forecasting skill and the predictors thatForecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications ofOn-Line Working Paper Series Forecasting Dangerous Inmate
Berk, Richard A.; Kriegler, Brian; Baek, John-Ho
Developing a Practical Forecasting Screener for Domestic Violence Incidents
Developing a Practical Forecasting Screener for Domesticcomplicated did not improve forecasting skill. Taking thethe local costs of forecasting errors. It is also feasible
Richard A. Berk; Susan B. Sorenson; Yan He
Forecasting with Dynamic Microsimulation: Design, Implementation, and Demonstration
Goulias Page 84 Forecasting with Dynamic Microsimulation:Goulias Page 80 Forecasting with Dynamic Microsimulation:L. Demographic Forecasting with a Dynamic Stochastic
Ravulaparthy, Srinath; Goulias, Konstadinos G.
Base Resource Forecasts - Power Marketing - Sierra Nevada Region...
Marketing > Base Resource Forecasts Base Resource Forecasts Note: Annual, rolling (monthly for 12 months), base resource forecasts are posted when they become available. Annual...
The Ventilated Ocean
Adiabatic theories of ocean circulation and density structure have a long tradition, from the concept of the ventilated thermocline to the notion that deep ocean ventilation is controlled by westerly winds over the Southern Ocean. This study ...
Patrick Haertel; Alexey Fedorov
On Scatterometer Ocean Stress
Scatterometers estimate the relative atmosphere�ocean motion at spatially high resolution and provide accurate inertial-scale ocean wind forcing information, which is crucial for many ocean, atmosphere, and climate applications. An empirical ...
M. Portabella; A. Stoffelen
Seasonal Prediction of Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies Using a Suite of 13 Coupled Atmosphere�Ocean Models
Improved seasonal prediction of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the global oceans is the theme of this paper. Using 13 state-of-the-art coupled global atmosphere�ocean models and 13 yr of seasonal forecasts, the performance of ...
T. N. Krishnamurti; Arindam Chakraborty; Ruby Krishnamurti; William K. Dewar; Carol Anne Clayson
Load transfer coupling regression curve fitting for distribution load forecasting
The planning of distribution facilities requires forecasts of future substation and feeder loads. Extrapolation based on a curve fit to past annual peak loads is currently the most popular manner of accomplishing this forecast. Curve fitting suffers badly from data shifts caused by switching as loads are routinely moved from one substation to another during the course of utility operations. This switching contaminates the data, reducing forecast accuracy. A new regression application reduces error due to these transfers by over an order of magnitude. A key to the usefulness of this method is that the amount of the transfer, and its direction (whether it was to or from a substation), is not a required input. The new technique, aspects of computer implementation of it, and a series of tests showing its advantage over normal multiple regression methods are given.
Willis, H.L.; Powell, R.W.
Ocean | Open Energy Information
Jump to: navigation, search TODO: Add description Related Links List of Ocean Thermal Incentives Retrieved from "http:en.openei.orgwindex.php?titleOcean&oldid273467"...
Energy Basics: Ocean Resources
Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site
Energy Basics Renewable Energy Printable Version Share this resource Biomass Geothermal Hydrogen Hydropower Ocean Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion Tidal Energy Wave Energy...
Solar Energy Market Forecast | Open Energy Information
Solar Energy Market Forecast Solar Energy Market Forecast Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Solar Energy Market Forecast Agency/Company /Organization: United States Department of Energy Sector: Energy Focus Area: Solar Topics: Market analysis, Technology characterizations Resource Type: Publications Website: giffords.house.gov/DOE%20Perspective%20on%20Solar%20Market%20Evolution References: Solar Energy Market Forecast[1] Summary " Energy markets / forecasts DOE Solar America Initiative overview Capital market investments in solar Solar photovoltaic (PV) sector overview PV prices and costs PV market evolution Market evolution considerations Balance of system costs Silicon 'normalization' Solar system value drivers Solar market forecast Additional resources"
Short-Term Load Forecasting Error Distributions and Implications for Renewable Integration Studies: Preprint
Load forecasting in the day-ahead timescale is a critical aspect of power system operations that is used in the unit commitment process. It is also an important factor in renewable energy integration studies, where the combination of load and wind or solar forecasting techniques create the net load uncertainty that must be managed by the economic dispatch process or with suitable reserves. An understanding of that load forecasting errors that may be expected in this process can lead to better decisions about the amount of reserves necessary to compensate errors. In this work, we performed a statistical analysis of the day-ahead (and two-day-ahead) load forecasting errors observed in two independent system operators for a one-year period. Comparisons were made with the normal distribution commonly assumed in power system operation simulations used for renewable power integration studies. Further analysis identified time periods when the load is more likely to be under- or overforecast.
Hodge, B. M.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.
A Review of Numerical Forecast Guidance for Hurricane Hugo
Numerical forecast guidance for Hurricane Hugo from the National Meteorological Center is examined, as well as forecasts from the European Center for Medium Range Forecasting and the United Kingdom Meteorological Office. No one forecast product ...
John H. Ward
Summary Verification Measures and Their Interpretation for Ensemble Forecasts
Ensemble prediction systems produce forecasts that represent the probability distribution of a continuous forecast variable. Most often, the verification problem is simplified by transforming the ensemble forecast into probability forecasts for ...
A. Allen Bradley; Stuart S. Schwartz
by by Esmeralda Sanchez The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has been providing an evaluation of the forecasts in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) annually since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on that of the prior year by adding the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. However, the underlying reasons for deviations between the projections and realized history tend to be the same from one evaluation to the next. The most significant conclusions are: * Over the last two decades, there have been many significant changes in laws, policies, and regulations that could not have been anticipated and were not assumed in the projections prior to their implementation. Many of these actions have had significant impacts on energy supply, demand, and prices; however, the
Local Forecast Communication In The Altiplano
Forecasts play an important role in planting decisions for Andean peasant producers. Predictions of the upcoming cropping season determine when, where, and what farmers will plant. This research looks at the sources of forecast information used ...
Jere L. Gilles; Corinne Valdivia
Economic and Statistical Measures of Forecast Accuracy
This paper argues in favour of a closer link between decision and forecast evaluation problems. Although the idea of using decision theory for forecast evaluation appears early in the dynamic stochastic programming literature, and has continued...
Granger, Clive W J; Pesaran, M Hashem
2013 Midyear Economic Forecast Sponsorship Opportunity
2013 Midyear Economic Forecast Sponsorship Opportunity Thursday, April 18, 2013, Hyatt Regency Irvine 11:30 a.m. 1:30 p.m. Dr. Anil Puri presents his annual Midyear Economic Forecast addressing
de Lijser, Peter
Forecasting consumer products using prediction markets
Prediction Markets hold the promise of improving the forecasting process. Research has shown that Prediction Markets can develop more accurate forecasts than polls or experts. Our research concentrated on analyzing Prediction ...
Trepte, Kai
Probabilistic Visibility Forecasting Using Bayesian Model Averaging
Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is a statistical postprocessing technique that has been used in probabilistic weather forecasting to calibrate forecast ensembles and generate predictive probability density functions (PDFs) for weather quantities. ...
Richard M. Chmielecki; Adrian E. Raftery
Intercomparison of Spatial Forecast Verification Methods
Advancements in weather forecast models and their enhanced resolution have led to substantially improved and more realistic-appearing forecasts for some variables. However, traditional verification scores often indicate poor performance because ...
Eric Gilleland; David Ahijevych; Barbara G. Brown; Barbara Casati; Elizabeth E. Ebert
Forecasting with Reference to a Specific Climatology
Seasonal forecasts are most commonly issued as anomalies with respect to some multiyear reference period. However, different seasonal forecasting centers use different reference periods. This paper shows that for near-surface temperature, ...
Emily Wallace; Alberto Arribas