text:
It looks like we are seeing the beginning of the end of the wireless charging wars. Although there are actually three competing wireless charging standards, it appears that the Qi specification will likely become the sole standard as Microsoft and Samsung Electro-Mechanics have joined the board of the Wireless Power Consortium (WPC), the group responsible for the Qi standard.
What is Nokia thinking? Can its Android X phone line-up really act as a gateway drug for Windows Phone, or is this experiment set to end in disaster? We take a look at the best case scenario for Nokia and Microsoft, before pointing out the flaws.
Microsoft is reportedly looking to bring Xbox Live to Android and iOS, possibly bringing achievements and cross-platform play to more smartphones and tablets. Read on for more!
Indian phone manufacturer Karbonn Mobiles is planning to release dual-OS devices as early as June, which will run both Windows Phone and Android.
Samsung has announced that its new security platform, Samsung KNOX, will support Microsoft's security minded enterprise software Workplace Join, Windows Intune, Windows Azure and cloud printing of Microsoft Office documents.
In this week's Google Play Weekly we talk about porting Android apps to Tizen, a new Chromecast app, the Google Now Launcher, and more Android apps!
How did Nokia port its MixRadio app to Android? Did Nokia re-write the app in Java? No, what Nokia did was to use a special bit of software from a company called Xamarin that basically lets Windows Phone app run on Android.
When it arrives later this spring, Windows Phone 8.1 will be able to be loaded on to (select) existing Qualcomm-based Android hardware. Read on for more details!
Microsoft has just updated its OneDrive storage app to include automatic camera backups, and is giving away 100GB of storage for free today.
Industry sources have heard that Basis, the company behind the Health Tracker Watch, is attempting to sell itself to some of the big names in the mobile business, including Samsung, Apple, and Google.


text:
Scandal in a Small Town (1988)Leda Beth Vincent lives in the small town of Shiloh and works as a cocktail waitress there. She is not too well thought of as she is nothing of a blushing virgin. But she is far from a ... See full summary » Director:Anthony PageWriter:Robert J. Avrech (as Robert Avrech) |
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subset: commoncrawl


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Decorating with Black and Tan
Check out these tips for introducing the timeless black and tan color duo to your decor.
By: Rosemary Sadez Friedmann
There's something very classy and sophisticated about the combination of black and tan. If you have a light tan sofa, you can greatly elevate its design status by simply adding pillows that mix black and tan, no matter the pattern.
Let's decorate a bedroom to give you some ideas for incorporating the color combination into your own decor:
- Couple a black bedspread accented with tan and with a whitewashed, aspen or any light-colored wood for the bedroom set. Granted, the motif has a masculine quality, but it's still very pleasing to the female eye as well.
- Strategically place rugs on a light-colored wood floor, or go with light tan carpet. And the more plush the carpet the better, perhaps all-cotton, which is a bit more pampering to the feet than nylon or wool carpet. Granted, the 100 percent cotton carpet will soil easier than the nylon or wool, but by keeping this carpet in the bare-feet-only bedroom, it will probably be relatively easy to maintain.
- Paint the walls and the woodwork a neutral cream shade and add cream-colored window treatments. Hang those curtains on a black decorator rod. Or go with a cornice upholstered in the bedspread material, but only if the ceiling is high enough to carry the black in the material. You also need a chair in the same pattern or a coordinating one.
- Choose lamps that accent the bedspread pattern. Pictures on the walls should do the same. If family photos are your heart's desire, opt for frames that match the wood of the furniture, and matte the pictures in black. But if art is the accessory of choice, choose art heavy on black and tan rather than adding other colors to the room.
With black and tan, it doesn't matter whether the decor is traditional or contemporary. Like the basic black dress, it just always fits in.
(Rosemary Sadez Friedmann is author of Mystery of Color.)
Next Up
Decorating Ideas for Rooms With the Blues
Not just for beach houses and boys' rooms, decorating with blue can be original and urbane. Take a look at these beautiful blue rooms by color-savvy designers.
Naturally Sophisticated Green
Refresh your home with green, the most spirited and eco-chic color of the color wheel. These green designer rooms show you how.
Trash to Treasure: White Accents
Robb Whittlef shares great ideas for transforming bland furnishings into contemporary treasures with just a little white paint.
Bunk Niche From HGTV Dream Home 2013
A happy kids' sleeping area at the top of the staircase features both nautical decor and a bright, happy beach-inspired color palette.
Green Decorating Basics From Linda Woodrum
HGTV Dream Home designer Linda Woodrum shares environmentally friendly decorating tips.
Ultimate Sports/Racing Bathroom
Make pit stops the best part of the race with this racing fan's paradise. Throw in some racing bath rugs, finish-line shower curtain and motorcycle accessories, and you're on the road to the ultimate racing bathroom.
Transitional Style 101
Not sure exactly what transitional style is? Get all the design details here.
Tuscan Style 101
Not exactly sure what Tuscan style is? Get all the design details here.
Make a Ghost for Halloween
Add this ghost to your Halloween decorations and your house will become a favorite haunt of all the little goblins in your neighborhood.
Shell Wreath
Bring a little of the White House to your house by creating this seashell beauty.
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Live and Learn or Die Stupid! (Google eBook) |
What people are saying - Write a review
Review: Live And Learn or Die Stupid!: A Sketched Guide Book to Our Human ...
User Review - Anne - GoodreadsGreat book. Lots of Eastern Philosophy presented in Western terminology. Easy to understand, funny and heartfelt. Read full review
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A collection of news and information related to Steven Spielberg published by this site and its partners.
Top Steven Spielberg Articles
Displaying items 78-88
Stacey Snider to be named co-chair of 20th Century Fox
Stacey Snider to Be Named 20th Century Fox Co-Chairman as Start Date Nears (Exclusive)
Story | Oct 30, 2014 | 6:30 PMIn a sign that Stacey Snider is preparing for life after DreamWorks, the executive has visited the 20th Century Fox studio lot to check out her new office space and introduce herself to the leaders of Fox Searchlight, according to people familiar with the... -
Mike Harari dies at 87; Mossad agent helped plan Munich revenge attacks
Story | Sep 22, 2014 | 5:04 PMMike Harari, an Israeli secret service agent who played a major role in planning Mossad's revenge attacks against Palestinian militants implicated in the 1972 Munich massacre of the country's Olympic team, has died. He was 87. Harari, who died Sunday in... -
Conocidos estafadores hacen de las suyas
Story | Nov 3, 2014 | 9:13 AMEl estafador más flamante que conoce el mundo se llama Francisco Nicolás Gómez Iglesias, es español, y con sólo 20 años ya se ha ganado unas cuantas páginas de periódicos y menciones en Internet. Lo detuvieron el 14 de octubre pasado (en casa de su... -
Kevin Reilly nears deal to run TNT, TBS cable channels
5 Things Hollywood Will Be Watching For in the Midterms
Story | Nov 3, 2014 | 8:30 PMHow are Hollywood Democrats feeling about Tuesday's elections? In one word: dread. With signs over the weekend that some key Senate races were moving toward Republicans, hopes were on chances that the polling is wrong, that Democrats will come through in... -
Technicolor at 100: Hollywood Legend Pivots From Colorful Past to the Future
Story | Nov 4, 2014 | 12:30 PMIt's one of the great, glorious names from Hollywood's Golden Age. It conjures magical nights watching epics unspool on giant screens in rococo movie palaces. The word itself entered the language, as slang for "vivid." Steven Spielberg is one of the... -
Chicago Public Library dinner celebrates 69 authors
What Indiana Jones gets wrong (and right) about archaeology
Tiny Island Malta Hosts Big Productions
Story | Nov 6, 2014 | 12:30 PMWhen oscar-nominated director paul greengrass wanted "an authentic ocean experience and look" for his hijack hostage thriller "Captain Phillips" (pictured), he headed to the tiny Mediterranean island of Malta, joining a long list of top helmers and high-... -
Every picture tells a story at Girls' Club


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You have been summoned to save the alpine village of Martlet in Royal Detective: Lord of Statues. Martlet has been taken over by statues! What made these statues come alive, and how can you stop them from destroying Martlet? The answer lies in the story of Princess, a young girl who was left on the statue maker's doorstep at birth. Find out who enchanted the statues and why in this charming game set in a small European town. Brought to you by Big Fish, the world's #1 Publisher of Adventure games!
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Smokehouse Kabobs with Chicken Dog Treats, 4-oz bag
List Price: | $7.49 |
Price: | $5.99 |
You Save: | $1.50 (20%) |
In Stock
Smokehouse Kabobs with Chicken Dog Treats, 4-oz bag
Smokehouse Chick'n Kabobs are a fun, unique treat sure to get your dog's tail wagging! On the inside is a chewy rawhide stick and on the outside is delicious ground chicken breast.
Key Benefits
- 100% natural treats
- Roasted to perfection
- Low in fat, high in protein
- Great for any size dog
Item Number | 62275 |
Weight | 0.25 pounds |
Form |
Lifestage |
Chicken Breast
Pet lovers who bought this item also bought...
Smokehouse Chick'n Kabobs Dog Treats Customer Reviews
Smokehouse Chick'n Kabobs Dog Treats
My dogs did not like these.
One of my dogs wats everything, however not these bones. They smelled them and walked away.
January 21, 2015
Great product
I have a Cockapoo who is very picky, no really picky! She would never eat soft chew snacks like snausages. I thought every dog loved them but not her. I also tried many other snacks but to no avail. I tried the smokehouse chicken chips first and she loves them so I decided to give these a try. I never saw a dog woof up a treat like these. She really loves your dog treats!! Thank you.
November 28, 2014
A great combination of textures.
Our Schnauzer loves chicken. She prefers it to any other type of meat. So we are always looking for Chicken flavored treats. This one provides a crunchy chicken flavored outer layer with a rawhide "k-bob" going down the center. Our girl isn't fond of rawhide, but there is never anything left when we give her one of these. If your pet loves chicken, I highly recommend these.
June 16, 2014
Good quality
My dogs loved the outer layer, but failed to finish them.
January 23, 2014
1-4 of 4


text:
Apr 05, 2012, 10:07 AM | |||
i agree with MCrites. the key to video is good control. you need to be able to fly fowards backwards sideways and still keep your point of view. learn to fly. i have broken 150 props, lots of arm's and a few motors. money does not buy good pilot skills. in this video i am filming with a gopro velcro mounted to the tri. i got hit several times doing it with less than $20 worth of damage. i was also flying in 10 to 20 mph winds with moving airplanes. this was my first time doing this and i was happy with the results. this video is cut from 2 or 3 flights and was just a quickie. i have 4 hours of video shot over 4 days that i will use at a later time.
Apr 05, 2012, 10:11 AM | |||
video on the parts to build cheap tricopter.
Apr 05, 2012, 11:21 PM | |
Thank you all for your most informative replies. They are a lot of help.
Sounds like the best thing to do is go a bit smaller and use a lighter camera. I'm not impressed with the lens on the GoPro. Too much barrel distortion, but something like the NEX5 is certainly an idea. I do have a couple of #11 key cams that I intend to use for practice, and also to put in situations I don't want to risk an expensive camera getting damaged. So perhaps a smallish (500?) quad with a decent control board might be a starting point. Another question comes to mind. I know coaxials are known for being poor in the wind, but both of mine (a 30cm 3 channel and a 63cm 4 channel) still go backwards in the slightest puff of a breeze, even when I am applying full forward power. Are small quads just as bad? One last thing: Is a cheap radio like a Turnigy 9x good enough for my application, or do I need to go for a multi-hundred dollar JR or Futaba? There doesn't seem to be anything between those 2 price groups. I'm very impressed with the flying skills in those 2 videos. -Mike http://mike-warren.net |
Apr 05, 2012, 11:27 PM | |||
Apr 05, 2012, 11:53 PM | |
Fullmooncat summarises it very well. +1 on the LIKE!!
Anyone who has got as far as getting a recording will understand. You can get it as good as anyone else on here, but it's not a quick easy or painless route to get consistent good quality. Hope I get there one day..... |
Latest blog entry: MultiWii OSD - MWOSD NG
Apr 06, 2012, 06:27 PM | ||
Larger, slow-moving props are more efficient, but also more susceptible to wind influence. So people often find that using somewhat smaller props will stabilize a video rig. For example, my 450 sized quad can use between 8 and 10 inch props. 10 inch give better flight time, but 8 inch are generally more stable, especially in the wind. There's nothing wrong with the 9x as long as you are willing to upgrade it. The stock Turnigy module is trash, as is the stock firmware. If you upgrade the radio with a FrSky module and the er9x firmware, you have a very nice, rock-solid Tx/Rx combo comparable to systems much more expensive. That's what I use, because I didn't want to spend $300+ on a radio. But it did require opening up the radio, soldering wires to the board, etc. It was pretty easy. I'm a novice with a soldering iron, and I managed it just fine |
Apr 06, 2012, 07:36 PM | |
United States, CA, Corona
Joined Feb 2006
7,274 Posts
Go to WOW helicopters website. They are located a mile from my office in Orange Ca, I visited them a half hour ago. They have the know how, good prices, and good videos to prove what they sell and the prices are much lower for this stuff as comparared to EDF. I think these guys are giving you some bad advice, check out the videos that were taken with a 1300 RTF setup, talk to Jonathan. www.wowhobbies.com |
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BHP likely to use debt to fund projects
PUBLISHED: 24 Aug 2012 00:05:16 | UPDATED: 24 Aug 2012 07:47:54PUBLISHED: 24 Aug 2012 PRINT EDITION: 24 Aug 2012BHP Billiton is likely to break its rule of "living within its means" this year and use debt to fund its ongoing expansion plans as a result of already approved projects, says chief executive Marius Kloppers.
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Modelling seasonal variations in the age and incidence of Kawasaki disease to explore possible infectious aetiologies.
ABSTRACT The average age of infection is expected to vary during seasonal epidemics in a way that is predictable from the epidemiological features, such as the duration of infectiousness and the nature of population mixing. However, it is not known whether such changes can be detected and verified using routinely collected data. We examined the correlation between the weekly number and average age of cases using data on pre-vaccination measles and rotavirus. We show that age-incidence patterns can be observed and predicted for these childhood infections. Incorporating additional information about important features of the transmission dynamics improves the correspondence between model predictions and empirical data. We then explored whether knowledge of the age-incidence pattern can shed light on the epidemiological features of diseases of unknown aetiology, such as Kawasaki disease (KD). Our results indicate KD is unlikely to be triggered by a single acute immunizing infection, but is consistent with an infection of longer duration, a non-immunizing infection or co-infection with an acute agent and one with longer duration. Age-incidence patterns can lend insight into important epidemiological features of infections, providing information on transmission-relevant population mixing for known infections and clues about the aetiology of complex paediatric diseases.
- [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
ABSTRACT: OBJECTIVES: To analyse the evidence suggesting a possible infectious origin of Kawasaki syndrome (KS). METHODS: PubMed was searched for all of the studies published over the last 15 years using the key words "Kawasaki syndrome" or "mucocutaneous lymph node syndrome" and "infectious disease" or "genetics" or "vasculitis" or "pathogenesis". RESULTS: Various levels of evidence support the hypothesis that KS is a complex disease triggered by an infection due to one or more pathogens. Viruses or bacteria may be the primum movens, although no specific infectious agent can be considered definitely etiological. A number of genetic polymorphisms have been identified in subjects with KS, but none of them can currently be considered a real marker of susceptibility. CONCLUSIONS: Various data suggest that KS is intimately related to infectious diseases and that its clinical expression is influenced by predisposing genetic backgrounds, but our knowledge of the infectious agent(s) involved and the genetic characteristics of susceptible children remains only partial. Further studies are needed to address the many still open questions concerning the disease.The Journal of infection 04/2013; · 4.13 Impact Factor - [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
ABSTRACT: Thromboangiitis obliterans, or Buerger disease, is a chronic nonatherosclerotic endarteritis manifesting as inflammation and thrombosis of distal extremity small and medium-sized arteries resulting in relapsing episodes of distal extremity ischemia. Takayasu arteritis is a rare syndrome characterized by inflammation of the aortic arch, pulmonary, coronary, and cerebral vessels, presenting with cerebrovascular symptoms, myocardial ischemia, or upper extremity claudication in young, often female, patients. Kawasaki disease is a small- and medium-vessel acute systemic vasculitis of young children, with morbidity and mortality stemming from coronary artery aneurysms. Microscopic polyangiitis, Churg-Strauss syndrome, and Wegener granulomatosis are systemic small-vessel vasculitides, affecting arterioles, capillary beds and venules, and each presenting with variable effects on the pulmonary, renal and gastrointestinal systems.Surgical Clinics of North America 08/2013; 93(4):833-75. · 1.93 Impact Factor - SourceAvailable from: Yoshiro Nagao[Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
ABSTRACT: Kawasaki disease (KD) is a common cause of acquired paediatric heart disease in developed countries. KD was first identified in the 1960s in Japan, and has been steadily increasing since it was first reported. The aetiology of KD has not been defined, but is assumed to be infection-related. The present study sought to identify the factor(s) that mediate the geographical variation and chronological increase of KD in Japan. Based upon data reported between 1979 and 2010 from all 47 prefectures in Japan, the incidence and mean patient age at the onset of KD were estimated. Using spatial and time-series analyses, incidence and mean age were regressed against climatic/socioeconomic variables. Both incidence and mean age of KD were inversely correlated with the total fertility rate (TFR; i.e., the number of children that would be born to one woman). The extrapolation of a time-series regressive model suggested that KD emerged in the 1960s because of a dramatic decrease in TFR in the 1940s through the 1950s. Mean patient age is an inverse surrogate for the hazard of contracting the aetiologic agent. Therefore, the observed negative correlation between mean patient age and TFR suggests that a higher TFR is associated with KD transmission. This relationship may be because a higher TFR facilitates sibling-to-sibling transmission. Additionally, the observed inverse correlation between incidence and TFR implies a paradoxical "negative" correlation between the incidence and the hazard of contracting the aetiologic agent. It was hypothesized that a decreasing TFR resulted in a reduced hazard of contracting the agent for KD, thereby increasing KD incidence.PLoS ONE 07/2013; 8(7):e67934. · 3.53 Impact Factor
Page 1
first published online 7 March 2012
, doi: 10.1098/rspb.2011.2464
2012 Proc. R. Soc. B
Steiner and Marc Lipsitch
Virginia E. Pitzer, David Burgner, Cécile Viboud, Lone Simonsen, Viggo Andreasen, Claudia A.
Kawasaki disease to explore possible infectious aetiologies
Modelling seasonal variations in the age and incidence of
Supplementary data
"Data Supplement"
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on March 12, 2014 on March 12, 2014 rspb.royalsocietypublishing.orgrspb.royalsocietypublishing.orgDownloaded from Downloaded from
Page 2
Modelling seasonal variations in the age and
incidence of Kawasaki disease to explore
possible infectious aetiologies
Virginia E. Pitzer1,2,*, David Burgner3, Ce ´cile Viboud2,
Lone Simonsen2,4, Viggo Andreasen2,5, Claudia A. Steiner6
and Marc Lipsitch1,7
1Department of Epidemiology and Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics,
Harvard School of Public Health, 677 Huntington Avenue, Boston, MA 02115, USA
2Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, 31 Center Dr MSC 2220,
Bethesda, MD 20892, USA
3Murdoch Childrens Research Institute, Royal Children's Hospital, Flemington Road,
Parkville, Victoria 3052, Australia
4Department of Global Health, School of Public Health and Health Services,
George Washington University, 2300 I St NW , Washington, DC 20037, USA
5Department of Science, Roskilde University, 4000 Roskilde, Denmark
6US Department of Health and Human Services, Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project,
Center for Delivery, Organization and Markets, Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality,
540 Gaither Road, Rockville, MD 20850, USA
7Department of Immunology and Infectious Diseases, Harvard School of Public Health,
665 Huntington Avenue, Boston, MA 02115, USA
The average age of infection is expected to vary during seasonal epidemics in a way that is predictable
from the epidemiological features, such as the duration of infectiousness and the nature of population
mixing. However, it is not known whether such changes can be detected and verified using routinely col-
lected data. We examined the correlation between the weekly number and average age of cases using data
on pre-vaccination measles and rotavirus. We show that age–incidence patterns can be observed and pre-
dicted for these childhood infections. Incorporating additional information about important features of
the transmission dynamics improves the correspondence between model predictions and empirical
data. We then explored whether knowledge of the age–incidence pattern can shed light on the epidemio-
logical features of diseases of unknown aetiology, such as Kawasaki disease (KD). Our results indicate
KD is unlikely to be triggered by a single acute immunizing infection, but is consistent with an infection
of longer duration, a non-immunizing infection or co-infection with an acute agent and one with longer
duration. Age–incidence patterns can lend insight into important epidemiological features of infections,
providing information on transmission-relevant population mixing for known infections and clues about
the aetiology of complex paediatric diseases.
Keywords: infectious disease dynamics; mathematical modelling; seasonality
Interest has grown recently in the role of infectious causes
for diseases of complex or unknown aetiology [1]. How-
ever, identifying and confirming the etiological agent
are often difficult for diseases with multiple necessary or
strongly predisposing causes, such as infection by one
or more pathogens in a host with a genetic predisposition
to disease [1]. Identifying a definitive link between an
infectious agent and a disease of unknown aetiology
can lead to improved diagnostics and treatment, includ-
ing the development of vaccines or antimicrobials,
rather than relying on non-specific treatments aimed at
mitigating disease pathogenesis.
Epidemiological evidence that supports an infectious
aetiology includes seasonality in incidence and a young
age distribution indicative of the acquisition of immunity
(or resistance to symptomatic disease) following infection
[2,3]. The incidence and age distribution of cases may
vary seasonally in a manner dependent on important epi-
demiological features of the infection, including the
duration of infectiousness and the nature of transmission-
relevant population mixing [4]. These 'age–incidence
patterns' can be understood in terms of age-related fluctu-
ations in the susceptible population resulting from the
epidemic dynamics [4]. However, it has yet to be demon-
strated whether seasonal changes in the average age of
cases can be detected using routinely collected data, or
that the correlation patterns between the incidence and
* Author and address for correspondence: Department of Ecology
and Evolutionary Biology, 212 Eno Hall, Princeton, NJ 08544,
USA (firstname.lastname@example.com).
Electronic supplementary material is available at http://dx.doi.org/
10.1098/rspb.2011.2464 or via http://rspb.royalsocietypublishing.org.
Proc. R. Soc. B (2012) 279, 2736–2743
Published online 7 March 2012
Received 23 November 2011
Accepted 17 February 2012
This journal is q 2012 The Royal Society
on March 12, 2014rspb.royalsocietypublishing.orgDownloaded from
Page 3
mission dynamics of infection. If this approach can be
validated using diseases with a well-understood infectious
eases with a suspected infectious aetiology may help in
narrowing the search for the agent(s) involved.
Kawasaki disease (KD) is a paediatric inflammatory
syndrome for which an infectious trigger is strongly sus-
pected, but for which no causative organism(s) have
been reliably identified [2,5,6]. KD is an acute systemic
vasculitis of young children that is diagnosed by the
presence of prolonged fever together with a constellation
of clinical signs, including rash, changes to the mucous
membranes and peripheries,
non-purulent conjunctival injection [7]. KD specifically
and uniquely damages the coronary arteries in a mino-
rity of cases. It is the leading cause of acquired heart
disease in children in asset-rich countries and may be
pro-atherosclerotic [2]. Epidemiological and microbiolo-
gical studies have attempted to link KD to a variety of
infectious and environmental exposures, but no reliable
association has been found [5,6].
The consensus is that KD is caused by a widely distrib-
uted infectious agent (or multiple agents) that evokes an
abnormal immune response in genetically predisposed
individuals [5,6]. There is considerable evidence to
suggest a genetic component of risk. Annual incidence
rates among children less than 5 years of age vary
from 4 to 20 per 100 000 in the United States [8,9]
to 218 per 100 000 in Japan [10] and the incidence
remains as high among children of Japanese descent
living in other countries [11]. Siblings of KD patients
have a 6–10-fold greater incidence than the general
population [12], and KD-affected children are more
likely to have parents who had the condition [13]. Other
aspects of the epidemiological evidence, including season-
ality and spatiotemporal clustering of cases, together with
the clinical features, suggest an infectious aetiology
[2,5,6,14,15]. The age distribution of KD cases is similar
to that of many childhood infections [2]. Most cases
occur in children less than 5 years of age, but the inci-
dence rate is relatively low in children less than six
months of age, suggesting there may be protection by
maternal antibodies [2,5,6]. The dramatic decline in inci-
dence in older children implies the putative infection is
widely distributed.
To determine whether examining the relationship
between seasonal variation in the number and average
age of cases can lend insight into the nature of the infec-
tious trigger(s), we sought to extend and validate previous
work on age–incidence patterns [4], then apply this
theory to KD. We first examined observed age–incidence
patterns for two acute childhood infections, measles and
rotavirus, for which the aetiology is known and the trans-
mission dynamics have been well-characterized [16–18].
We determined the extent to which the observed patterns
could be predicted by mathematical models, exploring a
hierarchy of models ranging from simple to more epide-
miologically realistic representations of the transmission
dynamics. We then examined the age–incidence pattern
of KD hospitalizations in the United States and compared
the observed pattern to those predicted by models con-
sistent with hypotheses about the aetiology of this
complex disease.
(a) Data
We examined data on measles notifications from Copenhagen,
Denmark from 1905 to 1918, rotavirus hospitalizations in the
United States from 1997 to 2005, and KD hospitalizations
in the United States from 1989 to 2003. Measles data were
obtained from weekly case reports by primary care physicians
[19]. For rotavirus and KD, we analysed data from the
state inpatient databases (SID) of the Healthcare Cost and
Utilization Project (HCUP) (http://www.hcup-us.ahrq.gov/
databases.jsp) maintained by the Agency for Healthcare
Research and Quality (AHRQ), which include all hospital
discharge records from community hospitals in participating
states. HCUP databases bring together the data collection
efforts of state data organizations, hospital associations,
private data organizations and the Federal government
to create a national information resource of patient-level
health-care data [20].
The data had differing degrees of age resolution; see
electronic supplementary material for details. To limit the
influence of atypical cases in older individuals during periods
of low incidence, we restricted our analysis to an age range in
which greater than 90 per cent of cases occurred.
(b) Statistical analysis
Age–incidence patterns were detected by calculating the
Pearson correlation coefficients between the number of
cases in a given week (t) and the mean age of such cases at
a lag of 226 to 26 weeks (t þ l). The primary outcome
variable was the lag time associated with the maximum cor-
relation (lmax). To determine the significance of these
patterns, we calculated 95% bootstrap confidence intervals
by randomly permuting the average age time series 10000
times and estimating the maximum and minimum corre-
lation coefficients between the original case data and the
permuted average age time series. We analysed the relation-
ship looking (i) longitudinally across all years of available
data, and (ii) at the cumulative data aggregated by week
of the year.
(c) Model-predicted patterns
We determined the extent to which the empirical age–
incidence patterns corresponded to model predictions, first
using simple models to represent the transmission dynamics,
then adding more complexity consistent with previously
developed models (see electronic supplementary material
for details). We did not explicitly fit the models to the
data because of the difficulty in doing so for KD (see elec-
tronic supplementary material), but rather used the best-fit
parameters for similar measles and rotavirus datasets
[16,17,19]. We assumed reported cases were directly pro-
portional to the underlying incidence (i.e. did not vary by
age), and adjusted the baseline transmission rate to corre-
spond to the average age of cases in our datasets. The
simple models were intended to give a range for the expected
lag times when we know only the most basic characteristics of
the infection (or presumed infection, in the case of KD),
while the more complex models were meant to demonstrate
how well we can reproduce the observed age–incidence pat-
terns given full knowledge of important aspects of the
transmission dynamics (which is not possible at this time
for KD).
Kawasaki disease age–incidence
V. E. Pitzer et al. 2737
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(a) Detection and validation of age–incidence
patterns for measles and rotavirus
Measles epidemics occurred approximately annually from
1905 to 1918 in Copenhagen, Denmark (figure 1a) [19].
The mean number of reported measles cases (averaged
by week of the year) varied between 16.9 and 139.1
cases per week, while the weekly average age of cases
varied between 4.6 and 6.9 years old (figure 1b). The
average age peaked just prior to the number of cases,
such that a maximum correlation of 0.47 for the longi-
tudinal analysis and 0.73 for the aggregate analysis were
associated lag times of lmax¼ 24 weeks and 23 weeks,
respectively; these correlations were highly significant
(p , 0.001; figure 1c).
To model the predicted dynamics of measles, we
used seasonally forced age-structured differential equa-
tion models (see electronic supplementary material; [4]).
We initially explored an susceptible-exposed-infectious-
recovered (SEIR) model with simple sinusoidal forcing.
We used a seasonal amplitude of b ¼ 0.15, and adjusted
the baseline transmission rate such that the model pre-
dicted annual epidemics with an average age of infection
between 4 and 6 years old. We explored four mixing
assumptions: (i) homogeneous mixing, (ii) assortative
mixing, (iii)mixing based onself-reported contact patterns
[21,22], and (iv) classical 'realistic age-structured' (RAS)
model mixing [16]. We found RAS mixing offered the clo-
sest correspondence with the observed age–incidence
pattern with a predicted lag time of 211 weeks, reflecting
the importanceof increasedratesof transmission
among school-aged children in the epidemiology of
measles. Other types of mixing produced lag times varying
from three weeks (homogeneous mixing) to 13 weeks
(self-reported mixing).
Given the importance of transmission among school-
aged children in measles epidemiology, it may be more
accurate to model seasonality in the transmission rate
using a step function reflecting the school holiday sche-
dule rather than a sinusoidal function. We examined the
model-predicted age–incidence pattern using 'school-
term forcing' reflecting the known holiday schedule in
Copenhagen [19] and assuming that the transmission
rate among school-aged children (7–14 years old) was
equal to that among preschool-aged children during holi-
day periods and approximately nine times higher during
school periods, according to the best-fit seasonal forcing
parameter for England and Wales [16]. We found the
lag time corresponding to the maximum correlation was
now predicted to be 23 weeks, which is very close to
the observed lmax of 23 to 24 weeks, although the
large decrease in the average age of cases during the
non-summer holidays predicted by the model was not
as evident in the data (figure 1d).
Rotavirus exhibited a different pattern from measles,
with strong seasonal variation in the number of cases, ran-
ging from a week-of-the-year average of 106–6800 cases
per week, and a younger average age (1.2–1.6 years old;
figure 2a,b). The mean number of rotavirus hospitaliz-
ations peaked in mid-March, while the average age of
patients tended to be greatest slightly after the peak of the
epidemic, such that the maximum correlation of 0.59 for
1905 19061907 19081909 19101911 1912 19131914 19151916 19171918
measles cases per week
average age of cases (yr)
measles cases per week
week of year
132639 524
average age of cases (yr)
−26 −130 13 26
correlation coefficient
lag (weeks)
−26 −130 1326
lag (weeks)
cases per week
week of the year
0 132639 523.5
average age of cases (yr)
−26 −130 1326
correlation coefficient
lag (weeks)
Figure 1. Relationship between the average age and incidence of measles notifications in Copenhagen, Denmark. (a) The
number of weekly measles notifications (blue) among children less than 15 years of age in Copenhagen from 1905 to 1918,
and the average age of measles cases (red). We smoothed the data using a five week moving average. (b) Mean number and
average age of measles notifications by week of the year. (c) Correlation coefficients between the number of notifications at
time t and the average age of cases at time t þ l for the longitudinal analysis and aggregate analysis. The dotted lines represent
the range within which 95% of the maximum and minimum correlations fell when we randomly permuted the average age time
series. (d) Model-predicted relationship between the number and average age of cases assuming an SEIR structure and
RAS-like mixing with school-term forcing.
2738V. E. Pitzer et al.
Kawasaki disease age–incidence
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thelongitudinalanalysisand0.72for theaggregateanalysis
bothoccurredata lagofsixweeks;again,thesecorrelations
were highly significant (p , 0.001; figure 2c).
If we modelled the dynamics of rotavirus using a simple
susceptible-infectious-recovered-susceptible (SIRS)model
assuming cases represent first infection (see electronic
supplementary material)and
transmission rate such that the mean age of cases was
approximately 1.5 years old, we found that the lag times
associated with the maximum correlation varied from 28
to 25 weeks depending on the mixing assumption.
However, such a model could not capture the strong
seasonality in rotavirus incidence.
Epidemiological studies suggest the dynamics of rota-
virus are more complex [17,23]. When we examined the
age–incidence pattern predicted by a best-fitting model
for rotavirus dynamics in the USA, which assumes an
SIRS-like structure with reduced susceptibility to infec-
tion and disease following one to two infections and
homogeneous mixing with higher rates of acquisition
among infants [17], we found the lag time corresponding
to the maximum correlation was predicted to be five
weeks (figure 2d), which is very close to the observed
lmax¼ 6 weeks.
In summary, it was possible to approximate the corre-
lation pattern between seasonal variation in the incidence
and mean age of infection within +12 weeks using
simple models for two diseases with different transmission
dynamics and empirical age–incidence patterns. Adding
detail to such models to improve their biological realism
increased the accuracy of the predicted age–incidence
adjustedthe baseline
patterns. These findings encouraged us to use simple
models to assess which sorts of infections would produce
the age–incidence pattern observed for KD in order to
placerestrictions onpossible infectiousaetiologies/triggers.
(b) Age–incidence pattern for Kawasaki disease
On average, the mean number of KD hospitalizations
peaked in February–March at 31.2 hospitalizations per
week and was lowest in September (16.7 hospitalizations
per week); the hospitalization rate increased slightly over
the 15-year period (figure 3a,b). The weekly mean age of
patients ranged from 3.2 to 3.8 years old when averaged
over the time series (figure 3b). Examining the data longi-
tudinally, we found the correlation between the number
and average age of KD cases varied from a maximum
of 0.20 occurring at lmax¼ 216 weeks to a minimum of
20.20 occurring at a lag of four weeks (figure 3c). Aggre-
gating the cases by week of the year yielded a similar
result, with the maximum correlation of 0.42 occurring
at lmax¼ 219 weeks (figure 3c). The maximum corre-
lations were significantly greater than those expected by
chance (p , 0.05).
We examined a variety of models consistent with
hypotheses about the aetiology of KD, including: (i) an
SIR model, in which people are immediately infectious
upon infection and there is life-long immunity following
infection, (ii) an SEIR model, in which there is a week-
long latent period following infection (during which
individuals are not yet infectious) and life-long immunity,
(iii) an SIRS model, in which immunity to infection
rotavirus cases per week
199819992000 200120022003 2004 2005
average age of cases (yr)
rotavirus cases per week
week of year
13 263952
average age of cases (yr)
−26 −130 13 26
correlation coefficient
lag (weeks)
−26 −130 1326
lag (weeks)
cases per week
week of year
1326 39 521.45
average age of cases
−26 −13013 26
correlation coefficient
lag (weeks)
Figure 2. Relationship between the average age and incidence of rotavirus hospitalizations in the United States. (a) The number
of weekly rotavirus hospitalizations (blue) among children less than 5 years of age in 16 US states from 1997 to 2005, and the
average age of rotavirus patients (red). We smoothed the data using a five week moving average. (b) Mean number and average
age of rotavirus cases by week of the year. (c) Correlation coefficients between the number of hospitalizations at time t and the
average age of patients at time t þ l for the longitudinal analysis and aggregate analysis. The dotted lines represent the range
within which 95% of the maximum and minimum correlations fell when we randomly permuted the average age time
series. (d) Model-predicted relationship between the number and average age of rotavirus cases assuming an SIRS-like
structure for a best-fit model [17].
Kawasaki disease age–incidence
V. E. Pitzer et al.2739
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wanes after 2 years, but immunity to clinical symptoms is
life-long, and (iv) a model for co-infection with two
agents in which each produces life-long immunity to
itself but no cross-immunity (see electronic supplemen-
tary material). We varied the duration of infectiousness
(D) from one week to 16 weeks, and examined four
different types of population mixing, as described
above. The baseline transmission rate was adjusted
such that the average age of cases was between 3 and 4
years old.
In general, the patterns predicted by these models were
inconsistent with the observed age–incidence pattern for
KD when the duration of infectiousness was short (D ¼ 1
week; table 1). The average age of cases was predicted to
be greatest near or slightly after the peak of the epidemic,
such that lag times corresponding to the maximum corre-
lation varied from 21 to 12 weeks for the SIR, SEIR and
co-infection models. Furthermore, these models often
predicted strong seasonal or multi-annual epidemics
when the infectious period was short, which does not
reflect the seasonality of KD. The only exception was
the SIRS model with self-reported mixing, for which
lmax¼ 211 weeks. When we assumed primary school
children mix with each other at much higher rates as in
the RAS model, the average age of cases was also greatest
prior to the peak in incidence (lmax¼ 212 weeks) when
D ¼ 1 week. However, under this type of mixing, a dispro-
portionate number of cases occurred among 6 year olds
(i.e. during the first year of primary school), which is not
consistent with the age distribution of KD (figure 3d).
As the duration of infectiousness increased, the lag
times changed little under homogeneous or RAS mixing,
but tended to increase if mixing was at least somewhat
assortative (table 1). When mixing was highly assortative
and D ¼ 16 weeks, the average age of cases reached a
maximum during the trough of the epidemic (lmax¼ 224
weeks; table 1), which is more consistent with the
pattern exhibited by KD hospitalizations (figure 3c,d).
This was also true for the model for co-infection with an
acute agent and one with a long duration under all
mixing assumptions.
If we consider all model-predicted lag times within
+12 weeks of the observed 216 to 219 week range as
possibly consistent with the pattern exhibited by KD hos-
pitalizations in the USA (table 1), we are able to rule out a
number of scenarios. A single acute infection is unlikely to
be the triggering agent of KD unless it is imperfectly
immunizing and mixing reflects self-reported contact pat-
terns. Otherwise, the age–incidence pattern exhibited by
KD is most consistent with a long duration infection or
co-infection with an acute and long duration infection.
The average age of infection is expected to vary during sea-
sonal epidemics in a manner dependent on important
epidemiological features, such as the duration of infec-
tiousness and the nature of transmission-relevant mixing.
Age–incidence patterns result from fluctuations in the
susceptible population that vary by age combined with
KD cases per week
19901992 199419961998 200020022004
average age of cases (yr)
KD cases per week
week of year
13 26 39 52
average age of cases (yr)
−26 −130 13 26
correlation coefficient
lag (weeks)
−26 −130 1326
lag (weeks)
longitudinal analysis aggregate analysis
age group (yr)
proportion of cases
Figure 3. Relationship between the average age and incidence of Kawasaki disease hospitalizations in the United States. (a) The
number of weekly KD hospitalizations (blue) among children less than 10 years of age in 10 US states from 1989 to 2003, and
the average age of KD patients (red). We smoothed the data using a five week moving average. (b) Mean number and
average age of KD cases by week of the year. (c) Correlation coefficients between the number of hospitalizations at time t
and the average age of patients at time t þ l for the longitudinal analysis and the aggregate analysis. The dotted lines represent
the range within which 95% of the maximum and minimum correlations fell when we randomly permuted the average age time
series. (d) Age distribution of KD hospitalizations among children less than 10 years of age in 10 US states compared with
model-predicted age distributions under different population mixing assumptions. Black bars, KD hospitalizations; blue
bars, homogeneous mixing; yellow bars, assortative mixing; pink bars, self-reported mixing; green bars, RAS mixing.
2740 V. E. Pitzer et al.
Kawasaki disease age–incidence
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age-dependencies in the transmission rate, both of which
influence what age group is responsible for initiating seaso-
nal epidemics (see electronic supplementary material) [4].
We have shown here that seasonal changes in the average
age of cases could be detected using routinely collected
data, and were consistent with model predictions. Examin-
ing age–incidence patterns can lend insight into important
epidemiological features of infections.
We found that simple models for the transmission
dynamics of measles and rotavirus could predict the lag
time associated with the maximum correlation with a
margin of error of +8–12 weeks. Improving the models
by incorporating more information about the epidemiol-
ogy of infection led to a better correspondence between
models and data, such that predicted lag times were
within +1 week of those observed. The amplitude of
seasonal fluctuations in the observed average age of cases
was typically greater than that predicted by models,
suggesting stochastic and discrete effects serve to amplify
rather than obscure seasonal changes in the average age.
Since age–incidence patterns vary in a predictable
manner, they may aid in the identification of unknown
infections. At least one infection is thought to be
involved in the aetiology of KD, but a specific agent
has yet to be identified [2,5]; it is possible that a pre-
viously unidentified virus is involved [6,24]. Examining
seasonal changes in the age and incidence of KD hospi-
talizations in the USA, we found that periods of high
incidence corresponded to a low average age of cases,
and vice versa. This pattern is in stark contrast to
those exhibited by measles and rotavirus. By comparing
the observed pattern to those predicted by a suite of
models consistent with hypotheses about the aetiology
of KD, we found that the age–incidence pattern of
KD suggests the involvement of an imperfectly immu-
nizing infection and/or an infectious agent that has a
long duration of infectiousness.
For immunizing infections, both the SIR and SEIR
models suggest that in order for the average age of cases
to be highest during the summer/fall when the incidence
of KD is low, the period of communicability would have
to be long, i.e. on the order of four months or more,
and mixing would have to be highly assortative. There
has been considerable debate over whether KD results
from an immunological cascade triggered by bacterial
superantigens [25–27]. Immunity following such bac-
terial infections is typically not life-long. For such an
infection, we considered an SIRS model in which immu-
nity wanes after 2 years. In order for cases to occur
primarily in childhood, we assumed that KD is the
result of an abnormal immune response that occurs
upon first infection in genetically predisposed individuals
and subsequent infections are not associated with symp-
tomatic illness. We cannot discard this hypothesis for an
etiologic agent with any duration of infectiousness assum-
ing transmission-relevant mixing reflects self-reported
contact patterns, which is likely the case for many res-
piratory infections. It is also possible that infection is
imperfectly immunizing, but that cases are limited to chil-
dren because of age-related susceptibilities. However, in
this case, the transmission rate is inestimable without
a priori information on how risk varies with age.
Another hypothesis is that KD is caused by co-infection
with two infectious agents, such as an acute viral infection
that interacts with colonizing bacteria, leading to bacterial
proliferation and toxin production [2]. Data from an
animal model of KD suggest that two triggers might be
responsible for KD pathogenesis [28]. Similar inter-
actions have been hypothesized to be involved in the
aetiology of invasive pneumococcal disease [29] and
meningococcal disease [30,31]. We explored this using a
model for co-infection with two immunizing agents, and
found that the age–incidence pattern for KD is consistent
with such a hypothesis provided at least one of the
Table 1. Predicted lag times associated with the maximum correlation (lmax; in weeks) for models- representing hypotheses
regarding the aetiology of Kawasaki disease.
duration of infectiousness
one week four weeks eight weeks16 weeks
SIR homogenous
aEpidemics occurred biennially.
bAge distribution of cases predicted under realistic age-structured (RAS) mixing is inconsistent with the age distribution of Kawasaki
disease hospitalizations.
cPredicted lag time within +12 weeks of the observed lag time for Kawasaki disease.
dEpidemics occurred triennially.
Kawasaki disease age–incidence
V. E. Pitzer et al.2741
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infections has a long period of communicability. This
relationship held true for a variety of mixing assumptions,
making it perhaps the most robust hypothesis. Since
co-infection tends to be a rare event, the low incidence
rate of KD in the USA could be consistent with
co-infectionamong individuals
common rather than rare genetic predisposition. Know-
ing the prevalence of the genetic determinants of KD
would help distinguish between some of the hypotheses
presented here.
While there are likely age-related biases in the reporting
of many diseases, including KD [32], such biases are unli-
kely to affect the observed age–incidence patterns unless
they vary by season. Underreporting of cases, such as fail-
ure to account for cases of 'incomplete' KD (in which
two or more of the diagnostic criteria are not met), will
create bias only if the age–incidence pattern among such
mately, 15 per cent of patients may not meet the full
diagnostic criteria, and these cases tend to be concentrated
at the extremesof the age distribution [33]. However, there
is no evidence that seasonal patterns differ between incom-
plete and typical KD. Errors in coding of hospitalization
records for KD may be constant throughout the year
(rather than proportional to the true incidence) and inde-
pendent of patient age. The influence of coding errors
will be greater during periods of low incidence and may
bias our estimates of the average age of cases. In this case,
the bias is expected to vary by season, and therefore may
confound our results. While this may contribute to the pat-
tern observed forKD, byexcluding allcasesgreater than or
equal to 10 years of age (6.6%), the effect should be lim-
ited. Similarly, readmissions for KD may follow a non-
seasonal pattern and be associated with an older average
age, thereby generating a bias that could account for the
observed pattern. However, an analysis of readmissions
data from a subset of states in our dataset revealed that
readmissions accounted for less than 10 per cent of all
admissions, and 87 per cent of readmissions occurred
within one month of the primary admission (see electronic
supplementary material). Thus, this is unlikely to account
entirely for the pattern we observed.
It would be interesting to test whether our findings
are replicated in other populations. In Japan, where the
incidence of KD is approximately 10–15 times higher
than in the USA [34], nationwide surveys have been con-
ducted every 2 years since 1970 [35]. There have been
three nationwide epidemics in Japan, occurring in 1979,
1982 and 1986 [15] and more localized outbreaks have
occurred regularly since then. A shift in the age distri-
bution of KD cases towards younger individuals during
these epidemics has been noted [12]. Furthermore, a
bimodal seasonality has been observed over the past 20
years, with peaks in January and again in June/July [15].
It would be interesting to see if the average age of cases
changes in a bimodal fashion as well. If the pattern we
observe in the USA also characterizes seasonal changes
in the age distribution of KD cases in other countries, it
could lend further insight into the aetiology.
The models we present here were parametrized and
structured to represent the transmission dynamics of
measles and rotavirus or to address specific hypotheses
about possible etiological agent(s) of KD, and are by
no means exhaustive. Other possibilities include, but
witha relatively
are not limited to, models for strain–variable infections
with complex immunity, e.g. rhinoviruses and group A
streptococci. However, we believe the method proposed
here based on age–incidence patterns might be applicable
to other diseases with a suspected infectious aetiology,
and could be used to gain a better understanding of the
transmission dynamics of known infections.
V.E.P. was supported by training grant T32 AI07535 and the
RAPIDDprogramme ofthe
Directorate, Department of Homeland Security, and the
Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health.
V.E.P. and M.L. were supported by cooperative agreement
5U01GM076497 and 5U54GM088558-02 (Models of
Institutes of Health. D.B. was supported by a National
Health and Medical Research Council Career Development
Award and by the Victorian Government's Operational
Infrastructure Support Programme. V.A. was supported by
grant 271-07-0555 from the Danish Medical Research
Council. We thank Christina Mills Astley for helpful
comments, Jessica Jacobs for assistance with data retrieval,
and all the states that provided hospitalization-discharge
data to support the Healthcare Cost and Utilization
Project. The content is solely the responsibility of the
authors and does not necessarily represent the official views
of the National Institute of General Medical Sciences or
the National Institutes of Health.
Science& Technology
Study) fromthe National
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Pediatr. Infect. Dis. J. 24, 429–433. (doi:10.1097/01.inf.
12 Fujita, Y., Nakamura, Y.,
Kobayashi, M., Nagai, M., Yanagawa, H. & Kawasaki,
T. 1989 Kawasaki disease in families. Pediatrics 84,
13 Uehara, R., Yashiro, M., Nakamura, Y. & Yanagawa, H.
2003 Kawasaki disease in parents and children. Acta
Paediatr. 92, 694–697. (doi:10.1111/j.1651-2227.2003.
14 Bronstein, D. E., Dille, A. N., Austin, J. P., Williams,
C. M., Palinkas, L. A. & Burns, J. C. 2000 Relationship
of climate, ethnicity and socioeconomic status to
Kawasaki disease in San Diego County, 1994 through
1998. Pediatr. Infect Dis. J. 19, 1087–1091. (doi:10.
15 Burns, J. C. et al. 2005 Seasonality and temporal cluster-
ing of Kawasaki syndrome. Epidemiology 16, 220–225.
16 Bolker, B. M. & Grenfell, B. T. 1993 Chaos and biologi-
cal complexity in measles dynamics. Proc. R. Soc. Lond. B
251, 75–81. (doi:10.1098/rspb.1993.0011)
17 Pitzer, V. E. et al. 2009 Demographic variability, vacci-
nation, and the spatiotemporal dynamics of rotavirus
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18 Schenzle, D. 1984 An age-structured model of pre- and
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19 Metcalf, C. J. E., Bjornstad, O. N., Grenfell, B. T. &
Andreasen,V. 2009 Seasonality
dynamics of six childhood infections in pre-vaccination
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20 Steiner, C., Elixhauser, A. & Schnaier, J. 2002 The
healthcare cost and utilization project: an overview.
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on March 12, 2014rspb.royalsocietypublishing.orgDownloaded from


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Your Quintessential Guide and Companion in The World of Belly Dancing!
Feel free to check out some the great content and resources we have on belly dancing
A belly dance is an ancient Middle Eastern dancing style that is versatile and unique. Belly dancing tones and exercises the whole body. In addition, it can be a great way to arouse your partner or an enjoyable way to bond with your girlfriends. Belly dancing includes different blends of folkloric steps from North African and Middle East […] Are you going to be a mom soon? :) Having your baby for the first time is undoubtedly thrilling, yet it also makes you worry because of the process of childbirth. You have heard a lot of stories that being pregnant is not that easy, and that giving birth to a child is very painful. […] Let's face it, many people want to be fit, but they don't actually know how to do it. There are a lot of people out there who search for the best tips, the most effective strategies, fast techniques, or the most efficient ways to lose weight or just get rid of belly fat. However, what they don't know is […] Are you up for another belly dancing gig? You are excited to make another groundbreaking belly dance and show off your skills. Wait! Do not get too excited! First, think of what you are going to wear, including your undergarments. Your belly dancing costume is not all about the fancy and grand outerwear – what lies underneath also counts. > […] Perhaps you have already seen several wonderful belly dance performances, but have you ever seen a belly dance with snakes? This could probably make your jaw dropped since belly dancing with snakes is somewhat rare. However, do not fear them. Snakes might just be your very best partners when belly dancing. > The Origin of Snake […] Having problems with the extra bulges around your waist? Do you want to wear those sexy outfits you haven't worn for centuries because of weight gain? Do you want to trim those bulges down without having those muscle pains after? Well here is a fun, exciting and a more comfortable way to do that! This […] Do you love to dance? It doesn't matter if a person is a talented dancer or not, each one of us has a natural inclination to express ourselves through dancing. Each one of us also has a child within us, that child who used to dream about castles, knights, princesses and swords. Imagine dancing and […] Do you ever want to feel sexy while having a big bulging stomach? I know all women would love to, but this is hard to attain during pregnancy. In a woman's lifetime, she will experience the worst kind of pain than she could ever imagine during labor. But then, it's so rewarding once she gets […] […] that they could hurt their baby. While some exercises may be too strenuous for expectant mothers, belly dancing is one of the pregnancy safe activities that can actually keep baby healthy while helping mom […] Belly Dance Hip Movements – hip drops, hip roll, hip circle, hip locks… Here are a couple of belly dancing hip moves that I use for my home practice: Here is my short overview of Belly Dancing Course™ that includes basic belly dancing tricks that will definitely "awaken your inner Shakira". Okay, so you can shake, but you haven't seen nothing until you've seen a skilled professional belly dancer strut her stuff. Belly Dancing Course™, created by Mariella Monroe (Professional Belly Dancer & Certified Trainer) currently offers over 50 […]Easy step by step belly dancing for beginners
Belly Dance for a Painless Childbirth
7 Simple Tips To Get Rid Of Belly Fat
What to Wear Underneath Your Belly Dancing Costume
Belly Dancing With Snakes
Get a flat stomach at home, with simple belly dance routine
The Art of Sword Belly Dancing
Benefits of belly dancing during pregnancy
Belly Dance Hip Movements – Home Practice
Overview of Belly Dancing Course by Mariella Monroe


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Video Gallery
Discover Carleton University
Check out this video to discover why so many students make Carleton University their #1 choice for post-secondary education. View footage of our campus, classrooms, support offices, athletics facilities and residences, as well as testimonials from current students.
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Studying History at Carleton University
Victoria discusses her History program and the hands-on work experience she's acquired while studying in Ottawa.
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The Residence Experience – Dining on Campus
Kate talks about the convenience and wide-range of choices available to students in the Residence Dining Hall.
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Industrial Design at Carleton
Paul discusses his experiences studying Industrial Design at Carleton, the supportive professors and shares his tips for students looking to study Industrial Design at Carleton.
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Carleton Stories: Matthew
Matthew discusses how both rowing and studying Interactive Multimedia and Design always push him to try harder.
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Global and International Studies at Carleton
Carleton's Bachelor of Global and International Studies provides in-depth education in global and international issues, with 12 specializations.
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Carleton Stories: Rachel
Rachel talks about Carleton University's beautiful and unique campus.
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The House of Commons Page Program
Morgan, a former House of Commons Page, discusses her experiences working on Parliament Hill and seeing the House of Commons in action.
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Carleton Stories: Barry
Barry discusses his lifelong love for Engineering and why he chose to study at Carleton University.
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Biology at Carleton
Brittany discusses professors, field courses and the hands-on experiences available at Carleton University.
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Transferring to Carleton University
Morgan discusses her experience transferring to Carleton, the transition process and her tips for adjusting to life on campus.


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PlantFiles: Carrot
Daucus carota 'Kyoto Red'
Family: Apiaceae (ay-pee-AY-see-ee) (Info) Genus: Daucus (DO-kus) (Info) Species: carota (kar-OH-tuh) (Info) Cultivar: Kyoto Red » View all varieties of Carrots 2 vendors have this plant for sale. 2 members have or want this plant for trade. Category: Height: Spacing: Hardiness: Sun Exposure: Danger: Bloom Color: Bloom Time: Foliage: Other details: Soil pH requirements: Patent Information: Propagation Methods: Seed Collecting: | Click thumbnail to view: By pajaritomt By TucsonTomato |
1 positive
1 neutral
No negatives
Gardeners' Notes:
This plant has been said to grow in the following regions:
Tucson, Arizona
Los Alamos, New Mexico


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This page is about the meanings of the acronym/abbreviation/shorthand MILF in the Miscellaneous field in general and in the Funnies terminology in particular.
Find a translation for MILF in other languages:
Select another language:
What does MILF mean?
- MILF(Noun)
- A (putative) mother found sexually attractive; an attractive middle-aged woman.
Discuss this MILF abbreviation with the community:
Use the citation below to add this abbreviation to your bibliography:
"MILF." Abbreviations.com. STANDS4 LLC, 2015. Web. 2 Mar. 2015. <http://www.abbreviations.com/term/276357>.
MILF also stands for:
- Man I Love Fishing
- Man I Love Football
- Man I Love Fridays
- Many Islands Low Fares
- Moment I'd Like to Forget
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Alternative search:
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It is currently Tue Mar 03, 2015 6:59 am
cabriellenil wrote:I've never had a candle split into two like this unless it was faulty to begin with, i.e. I didn't notice the crack before I lit it.
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The 2013 POPSUGAR Bikini Bracket is underway, and there is already a crop of ladies taking the lead in the rankings. Jessica Biel's fit figure has landed her at the top of the list, while Jessica Alba and Bar Refaeli's skimpy two-pieces have inched them closer to the top. Julianne Hough's sexy beach body has earned her a top spot, but if you want her, or your other favorite bikini-clad star, to make a real splash, place your vote now!
Source: FameFlynet, Pacific Coast News Online


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We want to help you find a job. Your first step is to contactl your local American Job Center for assistance. Staff will help you, the transitioning service member or veteran, successfully transition to a rewarding career.
Vets Talks Episode 1 Flash version 9.0 or better required, download Flash player for free
Return to the Division of Workforce Development and Adult Learning home page
Questions or comments regarding the Division of Workforce Development and Adult Learning may be directed to email@example.com. Questions or comments regarding the DLLR website may be directed to firstname.lastname@example.com.
Updated February 11, 2015


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just phyllis
- Location
- Small Town, Indiana, USA
- Birthday
- November 13
- Bio
- Blogging with PTSD
"Too often we underestimate the power of a touch, a smile, a kind word, a listening ear, an honest compliment, or the smallest act of caring, all of which have the potential to turn a life around." - Leo Buscaglia
All works ©Phyllis45, the author of this blog.
Also posting at Our Salon
- Interpreting My Sign
February 23, 2015 08:23PM - Still Waiting for a Sign-
updated with sign
February 21, 2015 07:09PM - 698 days!
February 03, 2015 07:27PM - Kitten Pictures!
February 01, 2015 07:13PM - OS Hit Squad Has Their New
January 31, 2015 08:22PM
- "I made a typo."
February 24, 2015 01:41PM - "You have to be careful
of the Midwest, it does sneak
up on a
person by
February 24, 2015 01:41PM - "I'll wave on my way to
Oregon! Remember, spring is
coming and
you have to plant
February 24, 2015 10:50AM - "The people who "judge"
you for being a vampire/ night
owl are
February 24, 2015 10:47AM - "Jmac, good to
haven't heard it put that way
February 24, 2015 06:12AM
Just phyllis's Links
- Poetry
- Questions
- I Quit, I Don't Care
- Nighttime
- Joyous Abandon
- Strangely Silent
- Am I Really That Scary?
- 2 in the morning
- Waking up Early! Where's the Sun?
- Gibberish
- What is this feeling?
- Pure Energy
- Friday
- Ode to Hump Day
- Prevailing Winds
- How Puff Saved Christmas
- Twinkle
- Tarot
- July 31, 2012
- April 1, 2012
- February 5, 2012
- Fiction
- Sally & Max
- Miranda's Shadow
- Machinations in Love
- The Saga of Sugar Cube
- A Love Story for Zuma
- Getting Busted
- Another Holiday is Done
- You and I- Ronnie and Sylvia, a prequel
- A Deal Gone Wrong
- Weird Stuff for Christmas
- A Good Time on Date Night
- The Premise of the Story
- The Guy on the Tube
- A Squabble at the Table
- Ditches and Divin'
- A Ransom
- She really loved her pets...
- Candy wants to Party!
- Our Salon Blog
- My Web Page
- HTML Class Project
Interpreting My Sign
"Get used to it if you keep trying to step outside of your status," she said with a snarl.
stã'tus, n. 2. position; rank; standing. 3. state, or condition, as of affairs
Webster's New Twentieth Century Dictionary Unabridged, Second Edition- Deluxe Color, pg 1778… Read full post »
Still Waiting for a Sign- updated with sign
There are 996 calendar days until I can collect my tiny pension. I have been asking the universe what my best course of action is but thus far it has been silent. Today, it gave me warmish temps and sunshine so it's not all bad. I do know that I need… Read full post »
698 days!
Working days, that is. There are online countdown calculators that can do that for you, if you give them a start and an end they can pick out the weekends and holidays.
I called the retirement people today to find out the particulars, I was too excited… Read full post »
Kitten Pictures!
No, these aren't earth shattering but they are cute. The kittens are good about going outside except Adso is definitely going to need the mesh harness when he's done growing. He's over 8 pounds now, so we just keep working on keeping his old-fashioned harness on him.
Adso sitting outside by… Read full post »
OS Hit Squad Has Their New Target
C (for want of a better title)
It's supposed to snow again this weekend, up to 8" and a chance for wind to blow it about. We're all hoping it's enough to close work Monday, and it seems that they have named the storm Linus. Really?
I found out that I am vested in the retirement plan… Read full post »
It Seems Serious
In 12 hours, starting from the time that I started writing this post, I will be hitting the road for Chicago; I am going to the Ideal Home Show to see Ahmed Hassan: Celebrity Landscaper! Yes, I will finally get to see him in person! This is so exciting, I can't… Read full post »
Simple Math- link added
I just did the math to find out how much I would have saved by the end of the year if I live exclusively within my paycheck minus ~$100 per, and it's a nice chunk of change. It also means I have to apply some discipline to myself.
Crap. At… Read full post »
A New Plan
I have decided on a new course of action. I am not going to go to Germany, I am going to move to Washington State, buy a couple acres of land, get a mini house that's off the grid, and grow things to sell.
That is all.
These two are… Read full post »
Finding Moments in Time
I have to choose… Read full post »
The Day After the Day
Saturday is here, finally, a gray mist has been the weather pattern all day but I am home and warm and safe. It's barely 12:30 but it's already been a long day and I feel the need for a nap. I also have a project to do for work that I… Read full post »
It Could Have Been Worse (PTSD SUCKS!)
January 2, 2015, was a day that had the potential to really suck. It started innocuously enough, the alarm went off at 5:00 a.m. after a night of minimal sleep, she managed to get out of bed and be showered and at the gym by 8:30 for her physical therapy appointment… Read full post »
a tak se začne
Thus, 2015 begins. I have only one resolution this year, and I think it's a doable one for a change. I resolve to live every day this year on purpose, and to keep the life I want in the forward viewfinder. I need to make a list of what I want… Read full post »
The Day After Christmas
It is now 40°F at 11:20 a.m., the forecast is for almost 50°F before the day is done.
The sun is shining with a gentle breeze.
The birds are chirping.
It could be spring outside.
Wishing that it was.
Going to act like it is.
This is what it… Read full post »
A Christmas at Home
Despite a perfectly lovely invitation to spend today with Margaret and James, I regretfully declined because I couldn't get any weather people to agree on what the forecast was going to be and elected to stay home. I called Dad at noon yesterday and invited him over for dinner. We set… Read full post »
I'm Learning
Another step on the growth chart occurred today. It was a close call but, instead of acting my reaction to a friend telling me to fuck off and leave the country because I think torture is wrong, I breathed.
I won't get specific, but this friend knows the chief torturer… Read full post »
An Incident at the Fair
It includes the word gift at the end, so it's a loose fit but, nonetheless, it fits! I actually wrote this as an experiment to see if the scenarios that play out in my head would make interesting stories. Thanks for reading.
She stopped at the edge of… Read full post »
Who's Next on the OS Hit List?
Congratulations are in order to the OS Hit Squad, another blogger who didn't toe their line has left the metaphorical building. Do you guys want OS to reopen? Or are you receiving a bonus for everyone that you drive away?
See, this is why I don't post controversial subjects here. I… Read full post »
Your Old Video Embed Code and How to Use It
As we all know, YouTube has done away with the old embed code, much to our dismay. If you have ever embedded a video then you have the code but I am putting it here so you don't have to go dig it out. Here is your code for embedding a… Read full post »
New Role to Play
I seem to have fallen into a role here, too, and my more lighthearted, non-angsty posts don't get any attention, but you know what, too bad. That's what I'm going to write from now on. I may slip in angst here and there, I still have bunches, but if I am… Read full post »
Alone Again, or Still...
I am getting down again, feeling alone and lonely and trapped. I so much want to quit my job and just exist as me with no deadlines and no place that I have to be. What would it be like to just be able to be without the artificial constraints imposed… Read full post »
A Trip to Columbus
A trip I had planned for many a day
A trip I had planned to make
come what may
I left this big city when only a tot
I left this big city
with nary a thought
A child of four was
… Read full post »A Sabbatical
I am going to disappear for a week. I've done it before without notice, but this time I am doing it because I spend too much time flipping back and forth between this place and Facebook. It's getting in the way of what little life I have.
I am also leaving… Read full post »
Bullies! (a satirical post, some would say silly, even)
What's New?
Here's the entire Melody Road album, if you're interested, by Neil Diamond. I'm currently enthralled with it.
So what's new? Nothing. It's cold, which you all know.
I have a small office at the other end of the hall from my main work space, my counselor asked for it to… Read full post »
Just phyllis's Favorites
Why ALL Police Shootings Are Justified!
I'm in love.......
Leonard Nimoy was a good tipper.
Letter From New York 02 28 15 Seeking to understand...
One Word
Heaven and Hell Pt 14:A Safe Harbor for Debauchery
1973: St. Croix, David, Island Time and Poker
Schools Find Emphasis on Risk-Taking Often Backfires


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Home Furnishings New & Pre Owned. Buy, Sale & Trade. Cash buy.
1300 E Butler Ave Ste #120
across from Sonic
Billboard - The latest coupons and news on this business!
Custom log furniture, locally made. All furniture in good, clean condition. Always daily specials!
MON 10:00am - 5:00pm | TUE 10:00am - 5:00pm | WED 10:00am - 5:00pm | THURS 10:00am - 5:00pm | FRI 10:00am - 5:00pm | SAT 10:00am - 4:00pm | SUN closed |
Locally owned and operated new, gently used discount home furnishings, beautiful art and local custom jewelry. Local Artist products welcome.
All fabrics are cleaned /sanitized.
Now Excepting Consignments
Home Pick-Up Available
Keep an eye out for our Home Show Specials!!!
Category: Home Furnishings|Residential Furniture|Room Ideas|Home Office Ideas|Home Decor|Furniture|Family Room Ideas|Bedroom Ideas|Home Recreational Spaces
Best Way to go by hassle free - 02/18/2012
I had a short time to sell an entire house full of furniture. I tried Craigs list and it seemed like alot of work and trying to deal with people offering much lower than I was asking. I was referred to New 2 You for co-signing my furniture. I'm so glad I did. It was sold within a few short weeks and I had my money without the hassle. Definitely worth the peace of mind. I had other irons on the fire so this was the best way for me. I highly recommend New 2 YOu.
Great variety and I love the cleanliness of the furniture by New to town - 11/07/2011
We just moved to town and needed some basics for our new home, We checked this store out before heading to the new furniture stores. Everything smells and looks very clean. We felt like we saved alot by finding some very nice furniture at a fraction of the price. It looked and smelled brand new which is important to me. Its the first used furniture store that I've ever heard of professionally cleaning and sanitizing their inventory. We bought a kitchen table, sofa, some lamps and a book shelf. Felt like we robbed a bank, very happy with our purchases.
Fabulous furniture at fabulous prices @ New 2 You!!! by New 2 You is New 2 Me! - 06/24/2011
This place is great! I was thrilled when my husband brought 2 awesome pieces home for me for our 28th Anniversary. The week before, we stopped by for the first time. I'd heard it advertised, but just happened upon it as we were driving through. I got 2 inexpensive little Decorative Trunks. I picked out an Antique Hutch and a Repro Dragonfly Tiffany Lamp that I loved. I just figured I didn't need them and could dream about them. I never expected to get both, but I did! I was so suprised, I really did think I was dreaming! The merchandise is high quality. This is my new favorite store! The management and staff are friendly and knowledgeable about their merchandise. Everything is displayed in such a way that you can visualize how it will look in your own home. I already knew where I'd put both pieces if I got them...and I did!! P.S. We live in Show Low and they were packed superbly for traveling. This place is well worth the trip!
Serving: Flagstaff AZ
Product: Sofas, Beds, Chairs, Tables, Children's Furniture, Home Office Furniture, Entertainment Centers, Furniture Supplies, Concealed Beds
Room: Living Room Furniture, Family Room Furniture, Bedroom Furniture, Dining Furniture
Style: Modern Furniture, Traditional Furniture
Type: Unfinished Furniture, Log Furniture, Handcrafted Furniture
Buying Options: Custom Furniture, Used Furniture, Pre -Owned
Material: Leather Furniture, Wood Furniture, Wicker Furniture, Vinyl Furniture
Convenience: Open Weekends, Delivery, By Phone, Pick Up
Payment Options: Cash, Personal Checks, Debit Cards, Visa, Mastercard, Discover
Promotions: Volume Discount
Assurances: References Available, Locally Owned
Services: Delivery
DexKnows Mobile profile for New 2 You in Flagstaff, AZ


text: Dependable infrastructure systems E.B. Fernandez Secure Systems Research Group - FAU What is infrastructure • One of the most important directions in homeland security is the protection of critical infrastructure. • These are the systems that support our everyday life and environment • The Dept. of Homeland Security has identified 14 areas of concern including agriculture, information and telecommunications, food, energy, water, transportation, public health, and finance Secure Systems Research Group - FAU Complex systems • All these functions are controlled by systems which are complex and which are becoming increasingly interdependent • Some are even mutually dependent, e.g. electric power generation may require oil and oil production may require electricity • They are usually distributed, real-time systems, may use the Internet as communication medium, and may include wireless and embedded devices. • They must be available always Secure Systems Research Group - FAU Threats • These systems are vulnerable to unintentional errors: equipment failure, human errors, weather, and accidents • They are also the object of intentional attacks: external (hackers) and insiders (internal attacks). Secure Systems Research Group - FAU Defenses • We need to protect the information necessary to control and coordinate these systems against intentional attacks and accidental events. • Also physical threats, access to buildings and installations • It is necessary to extend the standard models of security and reliability to consider this combination Secure Systems Research Group - FAU Process Control Systems Secure Systems Research Group - FAU ICSs • ICSs are implemented as: supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) systems, distributed control systems (DCS), and Programmable Logic Controllers (PLCs) • SCADA systems are highly distributed systems that control geographically scattered units (field devices) using centralized data acquisition and control (control center) • Field devices control local operations such as opening and closing valves, collecting data from sensors, and monitoring for alarm conditions • Typical uses include electric power systems,oil and gas pipelines, water utilities, transportation nets, intelligent buildings, and any application that requires remote monitoring and control. Secure Systems Research Group - FAU SCADA • SCADA architectures typically use layered architectures: a hierarchy of architectural layers • Typical requirements include: 24x7 operation, real-time behavior, remote control, distribution • To communicate between the Master control and its units the DNP3 (Distributed Network Protocol) is typically used • From a security point of view, these systems are the most interesting because they are the most vulnerable: the remote units are subject to physical attacks while the communication lines are subject to information attacks • The main security objectives here include availability and integrity, confidentiality and non-repudiation are not very important.. Secure Systems Research Group - FAU Convergence of access control • • Homeland security has brought an interest in control of access to buildings and other physical structures. The need to protect assets in buildings and to control access to restricted areas such as airports, naval ports, government agencies, and nuclear plants, created a great business opportunity for the physical access control industry and a good amount of interest in the research community. Recognition that access control to information and access control to physical locations have many common aspects. The most basic model of access control uses a tuple (s,o,t), subject, object, access type. If we interpret s as a person (instead of an acting executing entity), o as a physical structure (instead of a computational resource), and t as a physical access type (instead of resource access), we can make an analogy where we can apply known results or approaches from information access control. • Secure Systems Research Group - FAU Access control unification • • • • • One way to achieve this unification is using a conceptual abstraction for the definition of security requirements: analysis and security patterns A pattern is an encapsulated solution to a recurrent problem in a given context. A security pattern defines a solution to a security problem. The use of patterns has been increasing in industry because of their potential to improve software quality. Security patterns have only recently become accepted by industry and Microsoft, IBM, and Sun have web pages on this topic. Also, two books have appeared recently. We have presented several security patterns for access control to information We examined existing systems, industry standards, and government regulations to find as patterns a core set of features that a physical access control system should have. From these patterns, it is possible to define more specific patterns that can be used to build systems for a given protocol or to define new protocols. Secure Systems Research Group - FAU Pattern diagram Alarm Monitoring Relays Physical Structure Reference Monitor enforcedBy switch instruction raise alarms describes Role-Based Access Control Access Control to Physical Structures times Scheduler authorizes authenticates Authenticator Secure Systems Research Group - FAU Access Control to Physical Structures • • • Applies authentication and authorization to the control of access to physical units including alarm monitoring, relays, and time schedules that can control when things will happen. Example Building management wants to put in place an access control system to control access to certain zones and to control who can access the zones. They need to deny all access to certain zones after 5pm. They want to generate alarms when someone tries to access a zone for which they do not have permission and start monitoring alarms for all the exterior doors at 8pm. Moreover, they want to turn on the main door light at 7pm. Context Physical environment with access control system where we need to control access and turn on/off devices based on time constrains. Secure Systems Research Group - FAU Solution Define the structure of an access control system using an RBAC pattern. Integrate the Alarms Monitoring and Relays patterns and introduce the concept of a time schedule to control when things can/must happen. Time Schedules have two uses: to control access times and to configure automatic actions. Secure Systems Research Group - FAU Secure Systems Research Group - FAU Ideas • Describe through patterns the basic features and concepts for any Physical Access Control system, specialize models for specific environments • Patterns can guide the design of physical access control systems or they can be used to evaluate current products or standards • Extensions: dynamic restriction of the locations where a suspicious user could go or reconfiguration of exits in case of emergencies • Privacy-oriented restrictions • Combination with context-based access control Secure Systems Research Group - FAU More ideas • Patterns for SCADA systems and for dependable SCADA systems • Dependability patterns in general • Models to combine information and physical access control • Use of identity and context for authentication and access control Secure Systems Research Group - FAU