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Conn Smythe Trophy
Win or lose, is it time to put Martin Brodeur in the Conn Smythe race?
Jun 10, 2012, 1:16 PM EST
Could he do something Jean-Sebastien Giguere and Ron Hextall have done before him.
PHT Morning Skate: Coyotes, Kings have yet to trail in a 2012 playoff series
May 13, 2012, 9:08 AM EST
Wayne Gretzky has links to both Western Conference Finals clubs. That and more in the Morning Skate.
Tim Thomas wins 2011 Conn Smythe Trophy, drives home the point with Game 7 shutout
Jun 15, 2011, 11:53 PM EST
While most people were expecting Tim Thomas to win the Conn Smythe Trophy whether he won or lost, pitching a 37-save shutout in Game 7 solidified his historic run. Read more about his journey (and the many records he broke along the way) in this post.
Boston Bruins win their first Stanley Cup since 1972 with 4-0 Game 7 win over Vancouver
Jun 15, 2011, 11:49 PM EST
The Boston Bruins win their first Stanley Cup in 39 years thanks to stellar performances from Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand, and Conn Smythe Trophy winner Tim Thomas.
Tim Thomas looks to become first American Conn Smythe winner since Brian Leetch
Jun 14, 2011, 3:10 PM EST
If the conventional wisdom is accurate about Tim Thomas being a shoo-in to win the Conn Smythe with or without the Stanley Cup, then Thomas would be the second-ever U.S. born player to win that trophy (joining Brian Leetch).
Five Thoughts: Unsuspecting heroes making themselves known yet again in playoffs
May 8, 2011, 11:03 AM EST
It's becoming the year of the unsuspecting hero in the NHL playoffs. That and more in Five Thoughts.


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Final Calle Santander Lago de Atitlan, 03001 Panajachel, Guatemala – Show map
Excellent location – rated 9.5/10! (score from 9 reviews)
Rated by guests after their stay at Hotel Posada de Don Rodrigo Panajachel.
Set in attractive gardens overlooking Lake Atitlán, Hotel Posada de Don Rodrigo Panajachel is located in the village of Panajachel. It features a restaurant and a bar.
Each room at Hotel Posada de Don Rodrigo Panajachel has simple décor. There is free Wi-Fi, cable TV and a private bathroom with free toiletries.
Guests can enjoy a range of Guatemalan cuisine in the Don Rodrigo's restaurant.
The hotel is located next to Lacustre de Atitlan Museum. Ferries to other lakeside villages leave from the nearby dock.
Atitlán and San Pedro volcanoes can be reached in 40 minutes by car. Guatemala City is just over 100 km away.
We speak your language! Hotel Rooms: 39 This property has been on Booking.com since Mar 28, 2012.
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19 properties in Panajachel
Including hotels, apartments, villas and more.
9 verified reviews
We verify all reviews from guests who have stayed at Hotel Posada de Don Rodrigo Panajachel. Find out more.
They speak your language!
Hotel Posada de Don Rodrigo Panajachel's staff speaks: Spanish, English
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Outdoor Pool (all year), Grounds
Sauna, Spa, Massage
Food & Drink
Bar, Restaurant with Dining Menu
WiFi is available in all areas and is free of charge.
Free private parking is available on site (reservation is not needed).
Room Service, Shuttle Service (free) , Airport Shuttle (surcharge), Currency Exchange, Tour Desk, Laundry, Meeting/Banquet Facilities
Non-smoking Rooms, Designated Smoking Area
Spanish, English
Av Santander (55yrd)
Posada Don Rodrigo (11yrd)
Posada Don Rodrigo (11yrd)
Lago Atiltlan (109yrd)
From 3:00 PM
Until 1:00 PM
Cancellation and prepayment policies vary according to room type. Please enter the dates of your stay and check what conditions apply to your preferred room.
Children and Extra Beds
All children are welcome.
One child under 10 years stays free of charge when using existing beds.
One child under 2 years stays free of charge in a crib.
One older child or adult is charged GTQ 80 per person per night in an extra bed.
The maximum number of extra beds/cribs in a room is 1.
Any type of extra bed or crib is upon request and needs to be confirmed by management.
Additional fees are not calculated automatically in the total cost and will have to be paid for separately during your stay.
Pets are not allowed.
Cards accepted at this property
Hover over the cards for more info.
Other Places you Might Like
Based on 9 reviews
Value for money
Free WiFi
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Set next to Lake Atitlán, Porta Hotel del Lago offers views of the Guatemalan Highlands. It features an outdoor swimming pool, terrace and gym.
Score from 114 reviews
Located right on Lake Atitlan in San Pedro La Laguna, Mikaso Hotel y Restaurante features an on-site restaurant and bar.
Score from 146 reviews
Very good
Offering a restaurant and a private beach area, Reserva Natural Atitlan is located in Panajachel. Free WiFi, free parking and extreme outdoor sports are available.
Score from 35 reviews
Very good
Located on the shores of Lake Atitlán in San Antonio Palopó, Hotel Nuestro Sueño offers an indoor pool, a gym and a popular restaurant. Rooms have spectacular views of the lake and nearby volcanoes.
Score from 9 reviews
Lovely location, very comfortable facilities, neat and clean. Staff friendly.
We had to repeatedly request adequate towels - which were delivered in a reasonable time on each occasion. However, there was no tissue paper (i.e., Kleenex or equivalent) in the room and the staff said they don't provide it - told us there was a pharmacy 3 blocks away where we could buy some! This is totally unacceptable for any decent hotel and particularly one in this price range. I don't think they got the message at all!
We had reasonably high expectations given positive reviews and appealing photos but this hotel really delighted. A fantastic position in the town which is by no means attractive but nowhere near as touristy as we feared. If you want to be centrally located you won't do better. This is a large property with beautiful gardens and very nice rooms (we had a lake view room) although there is no question the decor is dated and the fittings could do with some tlc: chipped bath, scuffed walls etc. But none of this detracted sufficiently from the appeal of the property and, most importantly, the overwhelming service. Nothing was too much trouble for the staff who catered to our every request. Having thoroughly enjoyed our dinner on the first evening and then been equally as pleased with our breakfast, we ended up eating virtually every meal at the hotel and just ordering pretty much whatever we wanted and they delivered with a smile. The friendliness of the staff and their willingness to accommodate literally any request was really what made this hotel so exceptional for us and we would return in a heartbeat.
The one criticism? The dowdy swimming pool and its hideous water slide. The slide needs to be ripped out as it is an eyesore, not in keeping with the style of the rest of the hotel and blocks the wonderful view of the lake from the dining room. The pool needs an overhaul, predominantly of the surrounding area which is nasty concrete with a few paltry rusty chairs. Investing in some good quality chairs and sun loungers and sprucing up the area in general would make a world of difference. But it is unlikely you would choose this hotel as a base from which to spend a lot of time around the pool and thus again, this should not deter you whatsoever from staying in what is otherwise a lovely property run by wonderful, warm staff.
The exceptional service and lake view rooms. The restaurant served quality food.
It was low season so not many people but that can be a positive. Even though I got my internet working, this did not extend to my room which is the only hotel's let down. Everything else is exceptional. If the hotel addresses the internet problem, I would give this a 10 out of 10 and can't wait to return.

subset: commoncrawl


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Big Screen Entertainment Group
User Stats
Profile Images
User Bio
Big Screen Entertainment Group (Stock Ticker: BSEG). We are a media production, exhibitor, and distributor. Including but not limited to movies, digital content, music, and more.
External Links
- BSEG Main corporate site. - BSEG corporate and project website.
- BSEG Facebook Page - Follow BSEG on Facebook
- Babysitter Wanted Movie - BSEG Film Babysitter Wanted
- Target Practice Movie - BSEG Film Target Practice
- Sucker Movie - BSEG Film Sucker
- Sodium Babies - BSEG Film Sodium Babies


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Graphics Software
Sweet Home 3D An interior design application to draw house plans & arrange furniture
139,839 weekly downloads -
Tux Paint An award-winning drawing program for children ages 3 to 12
18,881 weekly downloads -
gPhoto gPhoto is a program and library framework that lets users download pictures from their digital cameras. The libgphoto2 library gives you access to hundreds of models of digital cameras on several platforms.
2,645 weekly downloads -
LibVNCServer LibVNCServer/LibVNCClient are cross-platform C libraries that allow you to easily implement VNC server or client functionality in your program.
865 weekly downloads -
Opcion Font Viewer Opcion Font Viewer is a Java based font viewer that allows you to view (un)installed TrueType fonts one or many at a time. Opcion Font Viewer allows you to select and save your favourite fonts, apply font styles, and set your own sample/preview text.
139 weekly downloads -
Stani's Python Editor SPE is a python IDE with auto indentation&completion,call tips,syntax coloring&highlighting,uml viewer,class explorer,source index,todo list,pycrust shell,file browsers,drag&drop,Blender support.Spe ships with wxGlade,PyChecker and Kiki.
233 weekly downloads -
mapivi Open-source and cross-platform picture manager and organizer with complete meta information support: add, edit, search and remove XMP, IPTC, EXIF and JPEG Comment. It also offers batch conversion/renaming of images and lossless rotation and cropping.
56 weekly downloads -
xCHM xCHM is a cross-platform GPL frontend for CHMLIB (http://www.jedrea.com/chmlib/) written with the wxWidgets framework.
179 weekly downloads -
Java Mass JPEG Resizer Tool The "Java Mass JPEG Resizer Tool" has following Features Resize all JPEG Images of a Directory, Create Webgalleries, Pack it to an ZIP File for E-Mail Attachments. The Tool is available in German and English.
48 weekly downloads -
LinPHA PHP Photo Gallery LinPHA is an easy to use, multilingual, flexible photo/image archive/album/gallery written in PHP. It uses a SQL database to store information about your pictures. It comes with a HTML based installer, so you don't need experience in setting up SQL
21 weekly downloads -
OpenGLUT 31 weekly downloads -
DuMP3 - duplicate & similar file finder DuMP3 is a duplicate and similar file finder.
14 weekly downloads -
Java Exif Viewer JexifViewer is a project for viewing Exif informations stored in JPG files written by most digital cameras. JexifViewer lists Exif tags in a table for comparing images. Image viewer is included. Images can be rotated and flipped. Slideshow available.
29 weekly downloads -
RRDtool Industry standard, high performance data logging and graphing system.
22 weekly downloads -
dxflib dxflib is an opensource C++ library for reading and writing AutoCAD (R) DXF files. It provides the functionality to read and write many basic entities as well as information about layers and blocks. From the author of QCad.
12 weekly downloads -
xf4vnc VNC for XFree86 v4.x architecture
8 weekly downloads -
Asaph Asaph is a tool for Christian music groups and worship leaders for managing song databases. Features include printing lead sheets and song books with or without chord markings, and generating presentations for use in group worship.
14 weekly downloads -
4D object viewer in wireframe 3D stereo 3D wireframe projection of 4D objects. rotations about the 6 planes of various 4D(R4) objects in Java. uses documented file format for the 4D objects. supports alternating lcd shutter 3D glasses and the red-blue 3D glasses. no 3d monitors yet
8 weekly downloads -
Doodle The Doodle project aims to provide a language to easily describe Origami diagrams and produces a ready-to-print document. Doodle will free creators from diagramming constraints and increase their capability to share their creations.
6 weekly downloads -
Genecys Genecys is an online, multiplayer third person 3D MMORPG similar to Final Fantasy Online, or Everquest. We intend to design a game, where the entire universe is dynamically generated by the server. NPCs in this game will be just as important as players
5 weekly downloads -
Gri language for scientific illustration Gri is a language for scientific graphics programming. It is script-based, not GUI-based. Some users view it as a sort of LaTeX for scientific graphics. Users who climb a slight learning curve are rewarded with considerable aesthetic power.
4 weekly downloads -
Space Opera Space Opera is a space colonization game similar to 'Master of Orion' or 'Galactic Civilizations'. You can explore the universe, colonize planets, fight aliens and research technologies. Images were created with Povray and Terragen.
4 weekly downloads -
darknocK darknocK detects edges in images, better than any other program. It is using Artificial Neural Networks to enchance the results of standard algorithms. It's a part of My work for My Master degree.
4 weekly downloads -
EasyMol A Java tool to design 2D molecules and render them in 3D.
3 weekly downloads -
Openmark Openmark will be a Open Source benchmark that will have 32/64 bit options for video rendering tests on X11 as well as HD speed, FSB, etc benchmarks. Also many tools like: temp monitor, speed control, etc.
3 weekly downloads


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Marble's Rear Sight Elevator Double Step for Carbine-Style 1-7/8" Long Blade Rear Sight
Product #: 398504
Marble's #:
Product Information
The Step Elevator controls the height adjustment on rear sights. The Double Step Elevator is used on most Marble's Short Blade and Long Blade Sporting rear sights. Blue steel.
Technical Information
Material: Steel
Finish: Blue
Features: Designed to replace the sight step elevator in sporting rear sights
Approximate width of the base is .350", the walls of this elevator taper out thus the top width is wider
Gunsmithing Required: Yes
Technical Information
Material: Steel
Finish: Blue
Features: Designed to replace the sight step elevator in sporting rear sights
Gunsmithing Required: Yes
Delivery Information
The total weight of the product, including the product's packaging as it sits on our shelf. Since some products ship directly from the Manufacturer, their weight may be unavailable. Because of variations in the manufacturing process, similar products may have differing weights. Unless the product is designated as "Ships Alone", Shipping Weight does not include the shipping box or packing materials associated with your order.
Product ships from MidwayUSA, separate from any other products on your order due to its size. Products that are Shipped Alone incur separate "Per Order" and "Per Pound" shipping charges.
Product is regulated by the US Department of Transportation (DOT) and cannot be shipped via USPS or air shipping methods. DOT-Regulated products must ship UPS Ground.
Product is restricted by shipping carriers and cannot be shipped to certain locations or via certain shipping methods.
Additional shipping charge for HazMat products. Carriers charge extra to ship packages with products they consider hazardous, such as reloading powder and primers.
Was this information helpful?
Thank you! Your valuable input helps improve our product information and future product selections
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Customer Reviews
The statements and opinions expressed within Customer Reviews reflect each author's personal perspective and do not imply endorsement by MidwayUSA, its Employees or any other organization. Customers should in no way infer that MidwayUSA has validated review information as safe, accurate or appropriate.
NOTE: Prices, specifications and availability are subject to change
without notice.
We reserve the right to correct typographic, photographic and/or descriptive errors.
We reserve the right to correct typographic, photographic and/or descriptive errors.


text:
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1/1/2015 » 6/30/20152015 Webinar Series
3/3/2015Webinar - Qualifying Borrowers Using Personal Tax Returns Part 2: Income-Rentals, S Corps & Farms
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Climbers scale mountains for the feeling of accomplishment and the heap of free flags waiting at the summit. Reach new personal heights with this Groupon.
Choose from Three Options
$19 for a Learn to Boulder class, covering the basics of bouldering (a $45 value)
$39 for a Learn the Ropes class, covering the basics of top-rope climbing (a $79 value)
$149 for a 10 indoor rock-climbing passes (up to a $309 total value)
- 10 full-day facility passes (up to a $199 value)
- 10 shoe, harness, and chalk-bag rentals (a $110 value)

Customers who sign up for an introductory class can bring their own gear or rent it from the facility for an additional cost ($11 for full-gear kits). Visitors with full-day passes can practice top-rope or lead climbing, as well as bouldering, on 22,000 square feet of climbing walls from open until close. All visitors must fill out waivers on their first visit and pass a belay test to use the top ropes. To belay for a climbing partner, visitors must first pass the gym's certification course; the gym also provides belay partners for an additional fee. In addition to climbing, facility passes also grant access to yoga, other classes, and an indoor slack line.

Brooklyn Boulders
Climbers of all ages and skill levels scamper across roughly 22,000 square feet of climbable space inside Brooklyn Boulders's rock-climbing gym. A dedicated route-setting staff organizes color-coded problems on craggy, angled top-rope walls as well as bouldering walls that reach up to 15 feet. To help visitors master these walls, seasoned instructors train them in three basic types of climbing: bouldering, top-rope climbing, or lead climbing. They teach these skills through classes such as the peak-performance program, which combines seven classes in lead climbing, bouldering, and cross-training to accelerate students' learning. To ease stressed muscles and promote calm reflection, staffers also lead all-ages yoga lessons and monthly yoga workshops.
Brooklyn Boulders also injects creativity into its special events, which encourage visitors to climb in costume around Halloween and take part in competitions during which they pretend the floor has turned to lava. Staffers also invite local graffiti artists to display their murals inside, work to preserve regional climbing areas by partnering with Access Fund, and coordinate programs through its BKB Foundation—a nonprofit that provides greater access to rock climbing for kids and adults.
99% of 501 customers recommend
"Make sure you book your newbie class before you go, times are 4,6 and I believe 8 Loved it had a great time and can't wait to use the heck outta this groupon"
"Great facility, friendly staff, I have no complaints."
"Excellent knowledgeable and patient staff! "


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Pronunciation: /ˈdʒɪɡəd/
Definition of jiggered in English:
British informal 1Damaged; broken: the lens is totally jiggered
More example sentences
- It's since my shoulder got painfully and extremely jiggered, six years ago.
- But public policy in this country has been jiggered to favor capital over labor.
Mid 19th century: from jigger1; its use to mean 'exhausted' is probably euphemistic for buggered.
- 1
well, I'll be (or I'm) jiggered
- Used to express one's astonishment.Example sentences
- People of Guildford, tell me what you believe in and care about… (pause)… well, I'll be jiggered; that's * exactly * what I believe in and care about!
- Well, I'll be jiggered, look at the all the property you could buy cheap in York County!
- Sometimes I says to myself, says I, 'Well, I'll be jiggered!'
Definition of jiggered in:
- US English dictionary
What do you find interesting about this word or phrase?
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Most popular in the US
Most popular in the UK
Most popular in Australia
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Most popular in Malaysia
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= trending


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Firefight in the sky! What are The Prowlers and where has Captain Marvel seen them before? What is Secret NASA training program: the Mercury 13?
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Armored Core V Still Has Big Robotmen
First person to say "um.... they're mecha" is getting punched in the throat!
Obliterate Armored Core V's Bosses Through Customization
And when that doesn't work, there's always the Grind Blade.
Every Day is a Doomsday in Armored Core V
You know things are bad if air raid sirens have been replaced with dubstep.
Make The Battlefield Your Own in Armor Core V
If it's your building, you should be the one to destroy it.


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Dear Auntie TUAW: Is My 2.0 iPhone Slow and Buggy?
Dear Auntie TUAW,
I've been looking to see if there was a post about this, but have people been noticing that the 2.0 firmware on their original iPhones has made them slow, partially responsive, and more buggy? I'm looking for a way to downgrade mine until they get it figured out. Thanks!
Signed, David C.
David, read on for the answer from Auntie TUAW.
Dear David,
2.0 instability is a pretty universal issue these days. I haven't played with 2.1, but our tipsters suggest that it's not a great improvement on 2.0. Still, there are ways to keep your iPhone usable without downgrading back to 1.1.4.
First, limit your applications. iPhone instability seems to rise as the number of onboard apps increases. Some users find that they needed to de-install all their apps and re-install them to bring the iPhone back to a harmonious equilibrium. Check out the discussion threads over at Apple for further information.
Second, reboot. A good fresh reboot does wonders for your iPhone's stability, allowing the OS to restart cleanly. A reboot a day may keep that unwanted white Apple away!
Thirdly, consider performing a complete restore if your iPhone seems particularly prone to crashes. After restoring, decline all existing backups. Instead, create a new iPhone identity. This provides you with the cleanest possible installation. Unfortunately, you then have to start re-syncing all your contacts, bookmarks, media, etc. and re-teaching your typing autocompletion choices, but you'll have built the best-possible starting point to work from.
Love from Auntie TUAW!
Software Updates
more updates- Apple Remote Desktop updated with Yosemite support
- OS X Yosemite 10.10.2, iOS 8.1.3 updates now available
- Sports Illustrated 120 SPORTS channel comes to Apple TV
- Logic Pro X update brings AirDrop support, new effects, tools, and more
- Parallels Access 2.5 released, adds file manager, computer-to-computer remote access
- The Google Translate iOS app is about to get a lot smarter


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IxDA Seattle Happy Hour January
Hi Everybody,
time for you to come out and mingle with your fellow designers at our Tuesday IxDA Happy Hour in November.
This is an opportunity for Interaction Designers, UX designers, Information Architects, UX Researchers, and everybody else who has an interest in interactive product and service design to get together and meet new people, catch up with people you haven't seen in a while, get inspired and inspire others, and find out what's going on in the Seattle UX community.
Friends and colleagues are more than welcome to come enjoy the happy hours with us, so feel free to share the event with others you know that might be interested. Anyone with Seattle ties who often travels to Seattle is also more than welcome.
This is a regular event that takes place every 3rd Tuesday of the month.
See you there, Daniel Jaeger


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Photo Galleries
< MyNorthwest
Wednesday in photos
Aug. 28: 50th Anniversary of the 1963 March on Washington, Spain tomato fight, India Hindu festival.
3 of 20 |
Elementary students of St. Scholastica's College, a Catholic school, shout slogans and flash thumbs down signs during a "noise barrage" protest outside their campus in Manila, Philippines, Wednesday Aug. 28, 2013 to call for the scrapping of a corruption-tainted development fund. The fund known as pork barrel allows lawmakers to allocate government money for projects in their districts. The pork barrel scandal centered on a powerful businesswoman who allegedly collaborated with lawmakers in channeling some of the funds. She has gone into hiding after she was charged with illegal detention of a whistle-blower. Local media reports of her lavish lifestyle have angered many ordinary taxpayers in the Southeast Asian country where nearly 28 percent of the 97 million people live on a little over a dollar a day. (AP Photo/Bullit Marquez)
Photo by Bullit Marquez
Photo by Bullit Marquez
3 of 20 |
More Photo Galleries
On stage & behind the scenes at the Oscars
Photos from the 87th annual Academy Awards in Los Angeles, Feb. 22, 2015. -
Oscar red carpet: Stars arrive at the Academy Awards
Hollywood's biggest stars walk the Oscar red carpet ahead of the 87th annual Academy Awards at the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles.


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Topic: Project Management
Managing and Making: It Doesn't Have to Be One or the Other
We take it for granted that career progress means moving into a management role. Even people who thrive in the individual contributor role feel the pressure to join management. Shouldn't both capacities be valued, so we can find where we genuinely fit in and do our best work? Rian van der Merwe has gone scouting up the career path and realized it's okay to turn back and be the other, oft-overlooked but equally important half of the management/making dynamic.
The Specialist-Generalist Balance
Specialists? Generalists? It's not a question of which is better, but about finding the right mix for your team and your work. Specialists offer valuable expertise, but over-reliance on specialization isn't always good for workflow—too many niches can lead to silos, bottlenecks, and poor communication. Garin Evans recommends that, instead, we build teams that play off the best traits of specialists and generalists, encouraging collaboration and innovation as we go.
The People are the Work
You take pride in your creativity and brilliant work, but the web is a place of transience. Businesses evolve, client needs change, sites are outgrown, and it's time to start building again. Can you be content with the work of presenting content on the web? For an approach to creating something that stands the test of time, Matt Griffin and the Bearded crew took to heart an old adage in a surprisingly new way.
Logically Speaking
The human mind has its own logic far beyond the binary states of mere computers. Even in the tech industry, you can't escape the reality that it takes more than data and solid conclusions to win people over.
The Implicit Contract
Working with a team of like-minded folks not only makes for more copacetic daily interactions, it actually has a positive effect on the end product. Developers are valued for more than their technical skills. Another hallmark of a good developer is how well they mesh with a team.
Managing Feature Requests
You're proud of your product, and welcome user suggestions on making it even better. Will you be able to make everyone happy? Should you even aim to accommodate them all? Before you start coding, think about how to prioritize feature requests, and even say no to some.
The Specialized Web: Working with Subject-Matter Experts
Content strategists often rely on the specialized knowledge of subject-matter experts (SMEs) to get the job done. But that job isn't always straightforward; it's complicated by different perspectives, communication styles, and project goals. Amanda Costello shows us how people skills—and the right mindset—can lead to better collaboration with SMEs and a smoother process from start to finish.
The Politics of Feedback
We're obsessive about collecting input from a wide range of potential users and stakeholders. But with such an onslaught of feedback, there's always a risk of having your motivation and faith in humanity sucked right out of you. Sometimes, you just need calm critique from the few people who really get you. So which kind of feedback is best? The answer is both.
Client Education and Post-Launch Success
Our jobs don't end when we flip the switch at launch. It's our responsibility, in fact, to follow through and make sure the tools we build are used to their fullest potential—by taking the time to educate and train our clients. Drew Thomas demonstrates how teaching our clients to understand, wield, and embrace their new websites and digital strategies makes good business sense for everyone involved.
Git: The Safety Net for Your Projects
Are you one server outage away from losing the past week of work? Are you dealing constantly with buggy code, spending hours of time figuring out where errors were introduced? Tobias Günther thought this was just the way coding worked, until he started using Git for version control—and began to see huge improvements in workflow. Today he'll walk you through the organized, approachable, and completely sane world of Git as he's learned it. Your next project will thank you.
Running Code Reviews with Confidence
Where does code review factor into your process? Don't make it an afterthought, or avoid it altogether; Emma Jane Hogbin Westby shows us how code reviews can be done constructively and painlessly in this walkthrough. Even if you aren't using Git to store your code, the principles here will make for an objective, consistent feedback process—and an even better end product.
Living up to Your (Business) Ideals
We all want to do work that matches our values—that lets us live up to our ideals for the world. But we also want to keep the lights on, make payroll, and maybe even grow. How can we design our agencies, studios, or freelance businesses to do both? Geoff DiMasi says the answer is in establishing a vision for your work, and directly tying that vision to the way you evaluate prospective clients and projects—and he's here to help you get started.
Making Time for Side Projects
What's holding you back from finishing that side project? It's valuable, but how will you ever find time for it? The secret is…drumroll…real goals and deadlines, and a realistic plan on how to fit it into the open spaces in your schedule. Time to get it on your to-do list and feel the motivation kick in.
The Silent Subcontractor
Subcontracting for an agency can sometimes leave a freelance designer in the shadows, unable to talk directly with the client during the project, and unable to show their own work in their portfolio later.
Let's Do It! What Are We Doing?
When you're asked to give a quote on a project, you face a dilemma. Ballpark it and hope for the best, or spend unpaid time working up a proposal that may not lead to work after all? There's a third way that's better for you and the client.
Responsive Design Won't Fix Your Content Problem
For years, we've told clients to serve the same content to every platform. We explained that Responsive Web Design allows content to squish itself into any container. Is it any wonder, then, that the belief has slowly grown that RWD can act as a substitute for actual content strategy?
Mastering Digital Project Momentum
Digital projects begin in high spirits and tip quickly into miscommunication and crisis. But it doesn't have to be that way. Extend your early kickoff meeting harmony throughout the life of your projects. By understanding your client's organizational drivers and key players before the sticky note sessions even begin, you can establish the momentum needed to keep the extended team focused on goals. And by managing stakeholder communications throughout the job, you can avoid land mines, save time and effort in the long run, and deliver a project that satisfies stakeholders, agency, and users alike.
Good Designers, Good Clients
In the web community, it often seems like client work is what people do when they need money to fund the projects they really care about. I might be considered an oddball for not aspiring to work in a hip startup or create a product out of a side project. I love working in client services.
Getting to Flow
When design and client cultures truly come together, magical and memorable projects emerge. These magic projects aren't random, though—they happen when you reach a state of flow. The beautiful part is, you can get both yourself and your client into a flow state more often by doing three things: enabling immediate feedback, balancing capability and challenge, and setting clear goals with visible progress. Breandán Knowlton shows you how.
Client Relationships and the Multi-Device Web
When you step into the room with a client, you are a visitor from the future. You, web professional, spend your days immersed in the new paradigms of the multi-device web. Yet even for you, the constant change and adjustments that come with living on the internet can feel overwhelming. So how do you think your clients feel? It's time to shed the vestigial mindsets we've inherited from the advertising world—the closed communications and drama of the "big reveal"—and build new systems based on honesty, inclusion, and genuine communication, says Matt Griffin. In this way, our clients will become true partners—rather than confused, anxious bystanders—as we learn to better navigate this strange, evolving digital universe together.


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Eyebrow Shapes Throughout History 2010-07-09 04:00:02
Eyebrow Evolution: Shapes, Styles, and Trends of Decades Past
by Beauty
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Eyebrow Evolution: Shapes, Styles, and Trends of Decades Past
Most of you prefer heavier eyebrows, but just like hairstyles, makeup shades, and clothing fashions, different shapes and textures of eyebrows go in and out of style over time. In the the '20s and '30s, it was all about thin, dramatic brows with lots of curves. In the '80s, it was all about a bigger-the-better attitude. And then there were the '90s, when brows were so thin, tweezers never got a break. So let's take a peek at some of the most memorable eyebrow styles over decades past. Which era stands out most for you?
Read More Camilla BellleBette DavisMadhubalaAli MacGrawGreta GarboJean HarlowClara BowJudy GarlandElizabeth TaylorTilda SwintonAnjelica HustonDorothy DandridgeJean SebergLucille BallSophia LorenLinda EvangelistaImanJennifer ConnellyAudrey HepburnEyebrowsHalle BerryCatherine Zeta-JonesDemi MooreBrooke ShieldsKate Moss
Link Love
- You're never too young for night cream — SheFinds
- The 6 beauty products Jennifer Aniston can't live without — InStyle
- The wild beauty styles from Fashion Week . . . on a grandma — HuffPost Style
- How to rock wet hair without looking greasy — The Cut
- Cushion compacts are the hottest trend in foundation right now — StyleBistro
- The science behind going gray — Byrdie
- These literary quote tattoos are the best kind of inspiration — The Gloss
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SHOCKING Commuter Train Murder VIDEO Passengers Didn't Notice Man Waving Gun - YouTube
This just goes to show the importance of keeping your wits about you and situation awareness. I think I'm preaching to the choir, but it's up to us who carry firearms and train in their use to help stop tragedies like this. Such a shame.


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You and your family are invited to join Face-To-Face Colorado and your local cleft community at our Winter Wonderland event on Sunday, December 14 at 1:00 p.m. It will be a musical afternoon, filled with fun crafts, activities, entertainment and many opportunities to connect with other cleft families. This is an annual event, sponsored by Children's Hospital Colorado. More details are below. Please RSVP by December 8 to firstname.lastname@example.com or call Jamie Bell at 720.777.6896.
2015 Smiles of Colorado Calendar NOW ON SALE
We are excited to announce that the 2015 Smiles of Colorado Calendars are now available for purchase. Visit our purchase page to order your calendar today. Proceeds from the sale of the calendars will support Face-to-Face Colorado and its programs. The calendars are a wonderful keepsake or make a great gift for the holidays. Thank you for your support!
2014 Summer Picnic & BBQ
Don't forget to RSVP to one of our most popular events of the summer. The Face-to-Face 2nd Annual Picnic BBQ is coming up on Saturday, August 16 at Lindsley Park in Denver. Join other families to play games, have fun, and network. Activities include a face painter, a balloon artist, and inflatable archery. PLUS, this year, we'll have special visits from mascots for the Colorado Mammoth and Colorado Rapids!
Saturday, August 16
11:30 a.m. – 2:30 p.m.
Lindsley Park (Dexter St. and E. Hale Parkway, near Rose Medical Center)
Sponsored by Face-to-Face Colorado, Rose Medical Center, and Rocky Mountain Children's Health Foundation.
RSVP to Marley Hamrick by August 7 at firstname.lastname@example.com or 720-975-5071. We look forward to seeing you there!
Join the Board of Directors!
Apply now to be on the Board of Directors for Face-to-Face Colorado! Join a passionate group of adults with clefts, parents of children with clefts, medical professionals, students, community organizers, and others all dedicated to ensuring that children with clefts and their families have the resources to thrive. Board members commit to a one year term from June 1, 2014 to May 31, 2015. Applications are due by May 24 and the first meeting is May 31. Click here to download an application.
The board of directors is responsible for overseeing the following areas of the organization:
- Strategic planning
- Policy approval
- Fundraising
- Financial management
- Evaluation of the organization and board itself Board members are also highly encouraged to volunteer, fundraise and make financial contributions as they are able. We understand that this commitment may vary among members depending on personal circumstances, and we appreciate all financial and volunteer contributes.
Legal Obligations:
1. Directors must meet the duty of care by
- Exercising their responsibilities in good faith and with diligence, attention, care and skill.
- Carrying out the purpose and mission of Face-to-Face Colorado.
- Complying with federal and state law.
- Completing required filings.
- Complying with the organization's governing documents (articles of incorporation and bylaws). This includes both decision making and oversight responsibilities, and is fulfilled by attending board meetings regularly, entering discussions, reading minutes, learning about the organization's programs, maintaining careful oversight of finances and questioning unclear or troubling activity.
2. Directors must also meet the duty of loyalty by placing the interests of the organization before their private interests and avoiding the use of organizational opportunities for personal gain.
Board members are expected to contribute an average of two hours per week. The time commitment may fluctuate week by week depending on board activities. We work with board members to set the schedule for meetings and commitments, and we are dedicated to ensuring that the schedule allows parents, students and employees to serve on the board. Board members must serve a one year term and may apply for reelection at the end of their term.
Full board meetings are held once quarterly. Special meetings of the full board or committees may be called as needed. The first and last meeting of the board year are in person in Denver, and the second and third meetings are via conference call.
Board Member Qualifications:
- Commitment to the mission and work of Face-to-Face Colorado. People with cleft lip/palate and their family members are highly encouraged to apply.
- Ability to serve as an independent member without a conflict of interest
- Demonstrated interest in youth and family empowerment, grassroots organizing, and social change
- Commitment to diversity and inclusion
- Excellent written and verbal communication skills
- Excellent organizational skills
- Experience working successfully in collaborative team environments
- Experience in one or more of the following areas is highly beneficial: nonprofit management, financial management, fundraising, volunteer coordination, communications, community organizing, advocacy, administration, grant writing or program evaluation


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Articles | 29 Oct 2014 We bring you the facts about the star of MR TURNER...
Movie News | 26 Aug 2014 A socially awkward teenage math prodigy finds new confidence and new friendships when he lands a spot on the British squad at the International Mathematics Olympiad.
Movie News | 12 Apr 2013 Drama will shoot this summer.
Interviews | 12 Mar 2013 Dublin filmmaker ALAN BRENNAN can't quite believe that his sci-fi romantic comedy Earthbound actually got made. "The whole thing is appropriately spacey," he tells Movies.ie
Articles | 06 Mar 2013 Movies to watch in Irish cinemas this month
10 Movies To See In March 2013 | 01 Mar 2013 What to watch in Irish cinemas this month
10 Movies To See In March 2013 | 01 Mar 2013 What will you see in Irish cinemas this month?
Movie News | 21 Feb 2013 "Is Joe really from outer space? ... or is he just on another planet?"
Home | 08 Feb 2013 I Give It A Year is the hilarious new comedy from Working Title Films, the producers of Notting Hill and Bridget Jones's Diary, and the writer of Borat. Starting where other romantic comedies finish, I GIVE IT A YEAR lifts the veil on the realities of the first year of marriage, and stars Rose Byrne (Bridesmaids), Rafe Spall (One Day), Anna Faris (The Dictator) and Simon Baker (The Mentalist). Since they met at a party, ambitious high-flyer Nat (Byrne) and struggling novelist Josh (Spall) have been deliriously happy despite their differences. Josh is a thinker, Nat's a doer..but the spark between them is undeniable. Their wedding is a dream come true, but family, friends and even the minister who marries them aren't convinced that they can last. Josh's ex-girlfriend, Chloe (Faris), and Nat's handsome American client Guy (Baker), could offer attractive alternatives. With their first anniversary approaching, neither wants to be the first to give up, but will they make it?
Interviews | 04 Feb 2013 Watch our hilarious video interview with star Rafe Spall & director Dan Mazer
Movie News | 17 Dec 2012 New look at Dan Mazer's romantic comedy starring Rose Byrne and Rafe Spall, hitting Irish cinemas February 2013. Courtesy of Empire.
Movie News | 22 Nov 2012 A look at the trials and tribulations of a pair of newlyweds during their first year as a married couple.
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How Long Will Rovi Investors Suffer?
NEW YORK ( TheStreet) -- If you're a current Rovi (ROVI - Get Report) investor, Tuesday's earnings warning was a frustrating spectacle filled with disappointment from start to finish. Rovi is expected to release actual earnings Aug. 2 for the quarter ended June 30.
Rovi is an entertainment technology company specializing in the management of entertainment content.
ROVI data by
Rovi lost about 23% of its marketcap in afterhours trading on Tuesday. The loss in market cap is the result of lower revenue, earnings and contracts for the quarter and for 2012. The analysts' consensus estimate is currently 42 cents a share, an improvement of 1 cent (2.4%) from 41 cents during the same period last year. Rovi missed in the last four out of four quarterly estimates. The next report will make it five for five.
ROVI Revenue Growth data by
The company expects to miss revenue by $21 million for the second quarter to come in near $158 million vs. the previous guidance of $179 million. Continuing operation losses are now expected to be between 15 and 18 cents per share, compared to 6 cents for the same period last year. (Rovi's are not the only shares falling, read my Facebook and Zynga article --
... We were negatively impacted by timing issues in our licensing business -- specifically, delays in signing certain guidance patent licenses. The majority of the second quarter revenue shortfall, and approximately half of the reduction in our expectations for fiscal 2012, are attributable to these timing delays. . . . In some instances, while not our preference, this may involve going to court against parties that we believe are in clear violation of our guidance patents. . . . Another key point is that we believe our delayed deals, once signed, will include catch-up payments to make Rovi whole for the pre-license period of use, so we do not anticipate ultimately losing revenue as a result of these delays -- it's just pushed out.What this means to me is that Rovi and potential licensees are so far apart in intellectual property negotiations that Rovi may have to litigate. Litigation is always filled with peril and trials with juries are crapshoots at best. Rovi may indeed collect back royalties; however, payments not received should be heavily discounted (as the market is clearly doing). Insiders sold over 110,000 shares, or about 80% of their holdings in the last six months. Some will say there are many reasons why insiders sell (stock options, etc..), but the bottom line is the motivation to sell or buy is nearly the same. You don't sell a stock you think is moving higher in price regardless of the source. Insiders own less than 1% of their compensation in stock. This may or may not indicate management believes in the company; you can make up your own mind. Nuance Communications (NUAN - Get Report) and Rovi have come together to produce Dragon TV and Magic Remote, a method of using voice commands instead of a remote to control a TV. TheStreet's Timothy Collins
Nuance is the maker of Dragon Naturally Speaking, a voice-to-text program I use often and really like. If Nuance and Rovi can do for TV what Dragon Naturally Speaking has done for typing on a computer, the days of searching for a hopelessly lost remote may be over. Plans for Nuance products include the ability for viewers to answer trivia questions and for the TV to answer questions about programming, for example, "who plays Jim on 'The Office'?" I look forward to the day of no longer needing remotes. Nuance reports earnings on Aug. 9, after the closing bell. The technical chart pattern is bearish for Nuance with the major moving averages moving lower. Rovi has partnered with other technology companies. Rovi technology powers video downloads for Best Buy (BBY - Get Report), another company whose stock is under pressure lately. Best Buy is trading a little more than a dollar above the 52-week low of $17.53. BBY data by YCharts
If Best Buy can turn over a new leaf and move from such a large dependence on bricks and mortar, and increase online sales, it wouldn't hurt Rovi's ability to make a buck. Unfortunately for Rovi, Best Buy has its own problems right now. Best Buy stores carry products with Rovi technology inside. Best Buy is also shrinking the size of their stores and closing others. (Read my
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How to change from DPNs to Magic Loop
View Single Post
2nd Sock, I Rock
Join Date: Jul 2011
Posts: 8,941
Thanks: 2,192
Thanked 3,422 Times in 2,891 Posts
A teddy bear will be a wonderful gift, a hand-knit one even more wonderful. That's really a sweet thing to do.
I'm working on
Henry's Rabbit
. I needed something quick to grab as I left this afternoon knowing I'd have several hours to fill. Anyhow, it's written for DPNs and I'm doing ML. I started by placing a marker at the end of each needle's set of stitches. The pattern calls for 16 sts on 3 needles, so I knit 16, placed a marker, knit 16, placed a marker, knit 16 placed a marker. The marker at the beginning of the round is different so that I can easily recognize it. All the increasing in this pattern is done on one needle and I started looping so that it was separate from the other two sets of stitches. After a while I moved the loop so that the stitches on the increase needle portion are more comfortable to work with but I could still count the stitches easily. Does that make sense? If not, please say so. Someone will clarify.
Happiness is catching that dropped stitch while it's still fixable..
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Send a private message to GrumpyGramma
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The seventh annual Manteca Firefighters Softball Tournament conducted April 22 at Big League Dreams raised more than $5,000 that the Manteca Firefighters Association plans to distribute to local charities. The tournament included 17 teams from fire departments throughout Northern California.
So how big of a deal is it that Lathrop has landed one of the hottest – and arguably forward-thinking – companies in America?
There's no such thing as a free lunch - or a free mine-resistant protected (MRAP) for that matter.
The Manteca City Council is looking for volunteers interested in serving on the Manteca Senior Advisory Committee.
The Easter Bunny needs some help.
Seniors needing assistance with filing their 2013 income tax returns may call the Manteca Senior Center at 209.456.8650 to schedule an appointment with AARP for tax-preparation assistance.
This week's featured Manteca Animal Shelter pet is "Chewy."
Lori Adams, Lori Little, Lisa Boone, Erin Nussbaumer and Trina Ramsey - known as "The Lori's & Company" are hosting their third annual book drive.
The Manteca Youth Advisory Commission and GK Music are seeking talented singers, dancers, musicians, bands, comics, magicians and other talented youth, teens and young adults ages 5-21 for "Got Talent?", a talent show and competition to be held Saturday, April 26, at the Manteca Senior Center, 295 Cherry Lane.
Want to reduce your chances of becoming a victim of identity theft?
It may have been a record - or at least a tie.
They've been working for the City of Manteca for 33 years each - and that's no joke.
People will travel for good food, but they'll go to even greater lengths for good company.
Monterey always makes for a pleasant weekend, but adding 120 or so Red Hatters frolicking in the Embassy Hotel near Monterey Bay - including 10 from Manteca - adds an indescribable level of karma for all those involved including the onlookers.
Chef Michael Midgley has emerged from his kitchen with another tasty creation.
It's Restaurant Week in Manteca.
Doctors Hospital of Manteca is hosting Saturday's (Jan. 17) breakfast at the Manteca Senior Center, 295 Cherry Lane that will include a health fair where participants will have the opportunity to be entered in a drawing for gift cards.
Do you feel safe crossing the overpasses at Main Street, Union Road and Airport Way on foot or bike?
Kirk Waters got the best Christmas present a fire chief could ask for - no Christmas-related fires over the holiday season.
A New Vision High student - the Manteca Unified School District's continuation high school in Weston Ranch - has complained to the Americans United for Separation of Church and State that a teacher is promoting an after school Bible club as well as religion in class.
Speaking of religion, Manteca's United Methodist Church is gearing up to celebrate their 100th year in 2015.
A number of teachers must be loving the Going Digital initiative being implemented by the Manteca Unified School District.
Manteca's first move to buy a "public utility" and monthly charges ended up saving took place in 1928 and resulted in rates being slashed by almost 50 percent.


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Fall Out Boy Announce New Album 'American Beauty/ American Psycho,' Drop Title Track [LISTEN]
So much Fall Out Boy, so little time. The band just announced their new album, 'American Beauty/American Psycho' and dropped the title track. Listen up!
So much Fall Out Boy, so little time. The band just announced their new album, 'American Beauty/American Psycho' and dropped the title track. Listen up!
It looks like our favorite Aussie pop-punkers are releasing a live album, and they've given it the most appropriate title we've ever heard: 'LiveSOS.'
Although the release date of Nicki Minaj's upcoming album 'The Pinkprint' was pushed back to December (sigh), the 'Anaconda' singer did treat fans to the album art yesterday (Nov. 2), and we totally love it.
The BeyHive is buzzin' with rumors that Beyonce is set to release 'Beyonce Part 2,' the sequel to her self-titled album, on Nov. 14.
2015 is slated to bring us awesome new album releases from Demi Lovato, Rixton, Kelly Clarkson, Fergie, Madonna and many, many more.
Calling all Lovatics! More details are coming out about Demi Lovato's upcoming new album.
Taylor Swift has finally lifted the veil of secrecy behind the track list of songs that will appear on '1989' this Tuesday, Oct. 27.
With just about a week left before '1989' is released on Oct. 27, Taylor Swift continues to give her fans a little taste of what's to come, day by day.
The end of 2014 is almost upon us, and as we get ready for the holiday season, several big name artists are releasing their albums in November in order to get ahead of the Christmas rush.
November 2014 brings us new albums from One Direction, Nick Jonas, Nicki MInaj and more. Which are you most excited for?


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Below are the first 10 and last 10 pages of uncorrected machine-read text (when available) of this chapter, followed by the top 30 algorithmically extracted key phrases from the chapter as a whole.
Intended to provide our own search engines and external engines with highly rich, chapter-representative searchable text on the opening pages of each chapter.
Because it is UNCORRECTED material, please consider the following text as a useful but insufficient proxy for the authoritative book pages.
Do not use for reproduction, copying, pasting, or reading; exclusively for search engines.
OCR for page 90
Determining Optimal Levels of
Advertising and
Recruiting Resources
r�enerally, econometric approaches are the most suitable research
t. ~ designs for assessing the optimal levels of recruiting programs
_ and resources. They can be applied to both natural and experi-
mental data. Because they often can be applied successfully to natural
data, they can save the often significant costs associated with a formal
experiment. This can occur, however, only for resources and programs
that have been implemented and for which there is variation cross-
sectionally, over time, or preferably both.
Econometric methods can be used to isolate and identify the effects of
existing resources, policies, and external factors affecting recruiting out-
comes as well as their costs. There is by now a relatively well-developed
body of econometric research that has identified some of the most important
determinants of enlistment supply as well as the cost and effectiveness of
various recruiting resources and the trade-offs among them. Estimates
are based on the natural variation in key recruiting resources and out-
comes (usually aggregated) that occur over time and across geographic
In this chapter we first review current approaches as described in the
recent literature and then suggest practical areas in which the research
design can be improved (with best data sources) and that promise to
produce the most reliable results. An implicit theme is that one cannot
approach design issues in isolation. That is, to obtain better estimates of
the effect of advertising, for example, improvements must be made in
models that already account for other factors affecting supply in a solid
way, and vice versa. Hence, it is probably a mistake to think in terms of
OCR for page 90
the best model for estimating recruiter effects, the best model for estimat-
ing advertising effects, and so forth. In this multivariate framework of the
actual recruiting market, one must adequately control for all factors to
isolate the effect of a single factor.
From the beginning of the All-Volunteer Force, enlistment supply has
been an ongoing topic of research.2 Econometric studies of enlistment
supply have used either aggregate national time-series data or panel
data that is, data over time disaggregated by some geographic level
(e.g., state, county, Service-specific recruiting area). Early studies typi-
cally focused on highly qualified enlistments (H) and modeled H as a
function of exogenous economic factors (X) and recruiting resources (R):
H = h(X, R).3 These studies implicitly assumed that the supply of recruits
with low qualification levels (L) was unlimited and that these recruits are
costless to recruit.
Dertouzos (1985) and Polich, Dertouzos, and Press (1986) introduced
the current generation of recruiting supply models. These models are
distinguished by accounting formally for the role of recruiters' prefer-
ences, the recruiting technology, and recruiter incentives. Dertouzos
(1985) argued that because it takes time and effort on the part of the
recruiter to attract and process even walk-in recruits, a more appropriate
formulation of the supply of highly qualified recruits adds L to the high-
quality enlistment supply function: H =f(X,R,L). L should have a negative
effect on H in this formulation.
Recruits do not simply appear off of the street. Recruiters must seek
them out and provide information about military service opportunities
that may convince them to join. This activity requires recruiters to expend
effort. The high-quality enlistment function is thus further modified to
include recruiter effort: H =f(X,R,L,E). Recruiter effort is unobservable to
researchers. But Polich, Dertouzos, and Press assume that it depends on
how high H and L are relative to the quotas that recruiters are given for
these two qualification categories of recruits (QH and QL, respectively).
This can be tempered somewhat by noting that a particular specification designed to
measure advertising effects, for example, may control for other factors in a way that is not
designed to produce structural estimates of their effects, but simply control for variation
from that source. The point here is that this other variation must be accounted for.
2Nelson (1986) provides a useful survey of the voluminous studies conducted prior to the
3High-quality enlistments are enlistments of high-school diploma graduates who score 50
or above on the Armed Forces Qualification Test.
OCR for page 90
When H (L) is low relative to QH (Qr), recruiting is more difficult and
recruiters must work harder. Therefore, E = gRQH,Qr). Substituting this
expression into the function above for H gives H =f(X,R,L,QH,Qr). Most
enlistment supply studies operationalize this general function by assum-
ing that the natural logarithm of H. log(H), is a log-linear function of the
other variables:
log(H) = logy + Eulogy + Eulogy + ~QHlogQH + ~Q~IogQ~ + �
The random error � in this equation accounts for unobservable influ-
ences on log(H). The coefficients in this equation are elasticities of H with
respect to the variables in the equation. Elasticities show the percentage
change in H due to a given percentage change in a given variable. For
example, a recruiter elasticity of 0.4 indicates that a 10 percent increase in
the recruiter force would lead to a 4 percent increase in H.
Warner, Simon, and Payne (2002) provide a detailed review of 15
econometric studies of enlistment supply conducted between 1985 and
1996. Some of the elasticity estimates from these studies are summarized
below. Models are usually estimated with panel data that is, data that
vary by time (e.g., month, quarter, year) and cross-section unit (e.g.,
Service recruiting area, state).4
The log-linear model rationalizes the inclusion of quotas as factors
affecting highly qualified enlistment. It implies that an increase in quotas
will, by stimulating recruiter effort, increase enlistments. It is possible,
however, that the effect of quotas depends on whether H is above or
below QH and L is above or below Qr Daula and Smith (1985) and Berner
and Daula (1993) pursue a different modeling strategy based on the con-
cept of "switching" regression. Their approaches break the restriction of
linear relationships between log(H) and logtQH) and logtQr) and permit
changes in quotas to have different effects depending on how high they
are relative to H. Daula and Smith (1985) allowed log(H) to switch between
"supply-constrained" regimes (H < QH) and "demand-constrained"
regimes (H > QH). Studying Army recruiting battalions, Berner and Daula
(1993) allowed H to fall into three regimes: those that were highly supply-
4 The proper estimation method with panel data depends on the form of the residual in
the model. In panel data, the residual � may be composed of three different factors. The first
is a state effect, which is constant over time. The second is a time effect, which captures the
influences of unobservable influences that are common to all states at a point in time. The
third is an idiosyncratic factor, which varies randomly by state and time. Models with panel
data can be estimated by using one-way or two-way fixed-effects models that control for
unobservable state and time effects (Greene, 2002~.
OCR for page 90
constrained, those that were producing around the quota, and those that
were producing well above their quota.
Issues in Estimation of Advertising Effects
Two key issues in estimating the effects of advertising are (1) func-
tional form, the shape of the relationship between expenditures or impres-
sions and enlistments, and (2) dynamics, how advertising in one period
affects recruiting in subsequent periods. The simplest form of relation-
ship is a semilogarithmic relationship in which log(H) is related linearly to
current or lagged expenditures or impressions. The semilogarithmic rela-
tionship imposes the restriction that each dollar increase in advertising
gives the same percentage change in H. Another frequently assumed form
of relationship is the log-log relationship, in which log(H) is related to the
natural logarithms of current or lagged advertising. This form of relation-
ship imposes the restriction that the elasticity of enlistment with respect
to advertising is constant regardless of the level of advertising. A short-
coming of this specification is that the logarithmic transformation requires
excluding those observations for which the advertising measure has a
value of 0, often the case with military advertising.5
Dertouzos and Garber (2003) argue that the functional relationship
needs to be flexible in order to estimate the effects of advertising over a
wide range of levels of advertising. Furthermore, they argue that adver-
tising must reach a minimum critical level before it has any impact on
enlistment. Beyond this critical minimum level, increases in advertising
increase highly qualified enlistments, first at an increasing rate and later
at a decreasing rate. Finally, beyond some saturation level, advertising
ceases to have any impact on highly qualified enlistments. A form that
allows regions of both increasing and diminishing returns is the logistics
function. Figure 5-1 illustrates logistics and linear relationships between
the log of highly qualified enlistments and advertising expenditures.
The second important specification issue raised by Dertouzos and
Garber is the timing of the relationship between advertising and enlist-
ment. Advertising in a particular month is likely to affect highly qualified
enlistments in future months, and the problem is how to specify the timing
of the advertising-enlistment relationship. Some studies have imposed
specific distributed lag relationships. One popular form of distributed lag
relationship, the Koyck lag, imposes a geometrically declining relation-
5Alternatively, one can set the advertising measure equal to some small number. How-
ever, Hogan, Dali, Mackin, and Mackie t1996' reported that results were sensitive to this
choice of number. For this reason, they entered advertising linearly in levels.
OCR for page 90
. _
0 5 10
15 20 25
Advertising Expenditures
(in thousands)
30 35 40
FIGURE 5-1 Hypothetical relationships between log of highly qualified enlist-
ment and advertising: Logistics and linear cases.
ship between past advertising and current enlistments. That is, advertis-
ing has a larger near-term effect than far-term effect. Specific lag forms
such as the Koyck are often assumed when time-series are short and there
are insufficient data to accurately estimate a large number of lag parameters.
Despite this virtue, they run the risk that the true relationship is not of the
assumed form. With a long enough time series, it is possible to simply
include a sufficient number of lags of advertising in the model and esti-
mate the parameters by regression.
Estimates from Econometric Studies
Table 5-1 outlines the empirical strategies of 16 enlistment studies of
male highly qualified recruits carried out between 1985 and 2001.6 Eleven
of these studies focused on a single Service. The factors that determine
high-quality enlistment supply fall into three categories: (1) recruiting
market factors (relative military pay, unemployment rate, youth popula-
6Nelson (1986) summarizes studies performed with data from the 1970s.
OCR for page 90
lion); (2) recruiting resources (number of recruiters, advertising budgets);
and (3) recruiting policy variables (recruiting goals, enlistment bonuses,
college benefits). Table 5-2 summarizes the findings from the studies in
Table 5-1 with respect to recruiters and advertising.
Excluding Warner's (1990) negative estimate for the Air Force, esti-
mates of the elasticity of highly qualified enlistments with respect to
recruiters range from a low of 0.090 for the Air Force (Fernandez,1982) to
1.65 for the Army (Dertouzos, 1985~. The Fernandez and Dertouzos esti-
mates were obtained from data that spanned very short time periods.
Estimates from longer time periods and periods over which recruiters
exhibit more variation are more reliable. Furthermore, because the allocation
of recruiters to geographic areas is likely to be correlated with unobserv-
able factors that vary systematically across geographic areas, estimates
based on models that include fixed geographic effects are probably less
biased than are other estimates. In fact, studies with panel data employ-
ing fixed effects for geographic area or time (or both) have tended to yield
smaller recruiter elasticity estimates.7 The mean of the recruiter elasticity
estimates in Table 5-2 is 0.55, implying that a 10 percent change in the
recruiter stock changes enlistment of highly qualified recruits by about
5.5 percent.
As Table 5-2 shows, there are many fewer estimates of the effects of
advertising than of recruiters. In the only experimental study of advertis-
ing effectiveness, Dertouzos (1989) reanalyzed the Ad Mix Test data.
Unlike the original analysis by Carroll (1987), Dertouzos estimated posi-
tive but modest effects of advertising. However, flaws in the design of the
test limited the usefulness of the data produced by that experiment. The
table reveals the paucity of econometric estimates of advertising effects. A
primary reason is the lack of data. The Navy, through a contract with PEP
Research, Inc., was the only Service to systematically collect advertising
data at any geographic level of detail throughout the 1980s.8 Through a
contract with the Department of Defense (DoD), PEP collected advertis-
ing data on all four Services by month by county for the period 1988-1997.
Warner (1991) provided an early analysis of the PEP data. Using
annual data at the Navy Recruiting District level, he estimated the elasticity
of enlistments of highly qualified recruits with respect to all Navy adver-
tising to be about 0.05. That is, doubling Navy advertising would raise
Estimation procedure may account for the different recruiter elasticities estimated by
Fernandez (1982) and Dertouzos (1985~. Fernandez (1982) used a fixed-effects estimator in
his dataset of 67 Military Entrance Processing stations MEWS; Dertouzos (1985), who used
a 33-MEPS subset of Fernandez (1982) dataset, did not.
8PEP estimates military advertising expenditures and impressions at the county level for
many categories of advertising.
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TABLE 5-1 Empirical Strategies
Beginning Ending Cross-Sectional # X- Services
Date of Date of Frequency Unit of Sec Includec
Study Study Study of Data Observation Units in Study
Berner and Oct-80 Jan-90 Monthly Battalion 55 Army
Bohn and Oct-92 Sep-95 Monthly NRD 31 Navy
Buddin Oct-86 Sep-90 Monthly Battalion 53 Army
Daula and Oct-80 Jun-83 Monthly Battalion 54 Army
Dertouzos Dec-79 Sep-81 Monthly AFEES 33 Army
Dertouzos Oct-83 Sep-84 Monthly ADI 210 All
Fernandez Dec-79 Sep-81 Monthly AFEES 66 Army,
(1982) Air Forc
Goldberg Ju1-71 Dec-77 Quarterly Nation
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# X- Services
Sec Included Study Theoretical Estimation Fixed Log or
Units in Study Type Framework Procedure Effects? Linear
55 Army Econometric Recruiter 3-regime Yes Log
utility switching
maximization regression model
31 Navy Navy College Reduced OLS No Linear
Fund form
53 Army Army's 2+2+4 Recruiter Nonlinear No Log
Experiment utility 3SLS
. . .
54 Army Econometric Supply and 2-regime Some Log
demand switching models
33 Army Econometric Recruiter 2SLS and No Log
utility maximum
maximization likelihood
210 All Advertising Reduced SUR with No Log
Mix Test form correction for
66 Army, Educational 12-month first Yes Log
Air Force, Assistance Reduced difference using
Navy Test Program form LS with
correction for
1 Navy Econometric Reduced Maximum No Linear
form likelihood
corrected for
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TABLE 5-1 Continued
Beginning Ending Cross-Sectional # X- Services
Date of Date of Frequency Unit of Sec Includec
Study Study Study of Data Observation Units in Study
Hogan Jan-90 Dec-94 Monthly NRD 31 Navy
et al.
et al. Oct-80 Dec-89 Quarterly Brigade 5 Army
Murray and Oct-82 Sep-93 Monthly PUMA 911 All
Polich Ju1-81 Jun-84 Monthly MEPS 66 Army
et al.
Smith Oct-80 Sep-89 Monthly Battalion 55 Army
et al.
Warner Oct-80 Sep-87 Quarterly NRD 41 All
Warner Oct-80 Sep-90 Annual NRD 41 Navy
Warner, Oct-89 Oct-97 Monthly State 51 All
Simon and
NOTE: ADI = areas of dominant influence; AFEES = armed forces entrance examination
station; MEPS = military entrance processing station; NRD = Navy recruiting district; PUMA
= public-use microdata areas. FIML = full information maximum likelihood; IV = instru-
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# X- Services
Sec Included Study Theoretical Estimation Fixed Log or
Units in Study Type Framework Procedure Effects? Linear
31 Navy Econometric Reduced LS with Yes Both
form correction for
serial correlation;
IV for advertising
in some models
Reduced GLS No Log
5 Army General form heteroskedasticity
911 All Econometric Hybrid OLS corrected for Yes Log
structural heteroskedasticity
and reduced and serial
form correlation; IV
for some variables
66 Army Enlistment Recruiter Two-stage No Log
Bonus utility procedure
maximization using 3SLS
55 Army Econometric Enlistee OLS found that Yes Log
utility correcting for
maximization serial correlation
did not affect
41 All Econometric Reduced Effects Yes Log
41 Navy Econometric Recruiter OLS and Yes Log
utility fixed
maximization effects
51 All Econometric Recruiter Fixed effects with Yes Both
utility IV for some
maximization variables
mental variables; LS = least squares; GLS = generalized least squares; 0LS = ordinary least
squares; 2SLS = 2-stage least squares; 3SLS = 2SLS followed by SUR; SUR = seemingly
unrelated regressions.
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TABLE 5-2 Econometric Estimates of Advertising Elasticities
Study Sample
Berner and Daula (1993)
Bohn and Schmitz (1996)
NRD dummies included
NRD and month dummies included
Buddin (1991)
Daula and Smith (1985)
Dertouzos (1985)
Reduced form, 1980 goals included
Reduced form, 1981 goals included
Structural model 1980 2SLS
Structural model 1981 2SLS
Structural model 1980 FIML
Structural model 1981 FIML
Dertouzos (1989)
Air Force
Fernandez (1982)
Air Force
Goldberg (1979)
Hogan et al. (1996~: Median estimates
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Service Joint Recruiters Advertising Measure
Advertising Advertising National Impressions
NA NA 0.238 Expenditures
Impressions and
0.089 NA 0.585 expenditures
0.140 1.270 Dollars
0.028 0.031 Impressions
0.021 0.009 Impressions
0.038 0.029 Impressions
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TABLE 5-2 Continued
Study Sample
Kearl et al. (1990)
Model 1
Model 2
Model 3
Murray and McDonald (1999)
Army early (1983-87)
Army late (1990-93)
Marine Corps early (1983-87)
Marine Corps late (1990-93)
Air Force early (1983-87)
Air Force late (1990-93)
Navy early (1983-87)
Navy late (1990-93)
Polich et al. (1986)
Smith et al. (1990)
Warner (1990)
Army, time trend included
Navy, time trend included
Air Force, time trend included
Marine Corps, time trend included
Warner (1991)
Warner, Simon, and Payne (2001)
Air Force
Marine Corps
Standard deviation
Coefficient of variation
NOTE: 2SLS = 2-stage least squares; FIML = full information maximum likelihood; NRD =
Navy recruiting district; 0LS = ordinary least squares.
OCR for page 90
Service Joint Recruiters
Advertising Advertising
Advertising Measure
National Impressions
0.056 0.597 Expenditures
0.050 0.150 Expenditures
0.103 0 0.371
0.015 -0.004 0.412
-0.034 0.004 -0.045
-0.017 0.001 0.487
0.050 -0.028 0.527 Expenditures
0.136 0.008 0.410 Impressions
0.084 -0.003 0.640 Impressions
-0.013 0.015 0.480 Impressions
-0.065 0.022 0.470 Impressions
0.114 0.010 0.551
0.186 0.015 0.368
1.625 1.545 0.667
OCR for page 90
enlistments of highly qualified recruits by 5 percent. Despite the appar-
ently low response, advertising was found to be cost-effective in com-
parison to recruiters because Navy advertising was a very low part of the
overall recruiting budget in the 1980s (see the cost estimates section below).
Hogan et al. (1996) examined the impact of Navy advertising with
more recent data. Furthermore, they estimated the effects of various sub-
categories of advertising. Using a fixed-effects model, they estimated a
TV elasticity of 0.03, a radio advertising estimate of 0.02, and a magazine
advertising elasticity of 0.04. Elasticities were also estimated for joint-
Service TV (0.031) and radio advertising, and mail advertising (own
Service, 0.038; joint-Service mail, 0.029~.
Warner, Simon, and Payne (2001) utilized PEP data to estimate an
overall advertising elasticity for the Army of 0.13 and for the Navy of 0.08.
In models that separated advertising into TV and non-TV advertising,
they obtained TV elasticity estimates of 0.09 and 0.05 for the Army and
Navy, respectively, and non-TV estimates of 0.07 and 0.05 for those Services.
But no relationship was found between Air Force and Marine Corps
enlistments of highly qualified recruits and advertising. Those Services'
advertising programs are much smaller than the Army and Navy pro-
grams, so the insignificance of the estimates could reflect the smaller scale
of those programs. Furthermore, there was some doubt about the quality
of the data for those Services.
Because these studies all imposed log-log or semilog functional rela-
tionships between log(H) and advertising, one should not use these esti-
mates to infer the effects of advertising over a wide possible range of
advertising expenditures. Dertouzos and Garber (2003) recently reanalyzed
the Ad Mix Test data imposing the logistic relationship between log(H)
and four forms of advertising: TV, radio, magazine, and newspaper. Esti-
mates were consistent with the theory and suggested different S-shaped
curves for the different media types. Newspaper spending did not appear
to have an impact on log(H) at any level of advertising. Magazine adver-
tising had an effect at a very low level but reached the saturation level at
a very low level of spending. Radio advertising had larger minimum
effectiveness and larger saturation levels than magazine advertising. TV
advertising had the largest minimum effectiveness and the largest satura-
tion levels.
Dertouzos and Garber report extreme difficulty in estimating their
models with more recent (fiscal year 1993-1997) data.9 Service-specific
estimates were not, in their opinion, very reliable. They therefore aggre-
9In particular, the logistic advertising model must be estimated with nonlinear regres-
sion, and they had difficulty getting nonlinear regression procedures to converge. And
when they did, estimates did not seem to be very plausible.
OCR for page 90
gated their data to the DoD level and estimated models of total DoD
enlistments as a function of advertising and other control variables. Some
models contained total advertising, while others contained TV and non-
TV advertising. These models yielded significant positive effects of total
advertising and of TV advertising, but not of non-TV advertising.
Recruiting Cost Function
The concept of recruiting cost functions (RCF) is taken from the eco-
nomic theory of production. The RCF provides an estimate of the optimal
(i.e., cost minimizing) resource levels to achieve a given set of recruiting
goals. They can be derived directly from the enlistment supply models,
which may be interpreted as recruiting production functions.
The RCF is derived as the outcome of the following cost-minimization
choose X to min C = Id= piXi subject tof(H*, L*, X, Z*, E) = 0.
where the It's are the prices or unit costs of n resources over which there is
choice, the X's, and He and Lo are particular values for highly qualified
and less-well-qualified recruits, respectively. The vector Z consists of
factors over which the Services do not have control but that affect recruit-
ing. It includes the civilian unemployment rate and civilian wages as well
as, arguably, the aggregate military pay raise. The vector X includes
recruiters, bonuses, advertising, and college benefits, among other things.
As a result of solving the minimization problem and solving the first
order equations for a minimum, we obtain the recruiting cost function:
C = C(p,H,L,Z)
where C is the minimum total cost of recruiting H highly qualified recruits
and L recruits with low qualification levels, and p is a vector of resource
prices and Z are factors affecting cost that are beyond the control or choice
of the Service. In addition to providing an estimate of the minimum total
cost, the RCF also provides an estimate of the optimal levels of resources
that constitute the cost. That is, a product of the cost function is an esti-
mate of the optimal amount of each resource, given the overall goals,
where "optimal" is the cost-minimizing amounts. Moreover, by differen-
tiating with respect to H or to L, one obtains an estimate of the marginal
cost of highly qualified and less-well-qualified recruits.
A RCF was developed for each Service by Hogan and Smith (1994~. A
version of the RCF is currently in use by the Office of the Secretary of
OCR for page 90
Defense and the Chief of the Naval Recruiting Command. In these appli-
cations, the RCF uses a log-log specification of the underlying enlistment
supply model. The model provides the cost and levels of resources for a
given set of recruiting goals and for a given economic environment.
Marginal Resource Cost Estimatesi�
Once the responsiveness of enlistment to recruiting resources has been
estimated, estimates can be used to calculate the marginal cost of enlist-
ment. A greater responsiveness of enlistment to recruiting resources im-
plies lower marginal cost. Consider the marginal cost of highly qualified
enlistments brought about by an expansion of the recruiter force. The
marginal cost of highly qualified enlistment via recruiters can be calcu-
lated as C*(R/H)/~R where C is the cost of a recruiter, R is the ratio of
recruiters to highly qualified enlistments, and OR iS the elasticity of H with
respect to R. If C = $45,000 (DoD recruiter cost factor), R/H = 0.1 (late 1990s
ratio for the Army, the Navy, and the Marine Corps), and OR = 0 5, then
the marginal cost of H via additional recruiters would be $9,000. Since OR
is 0.5, the marginal cost is twice the average cost ($4,500~. The most plau-
sible estimates of OR range from 0.3 to 0.6 (Table 5-2~. This range of esti-
mates implies marginal recruiter costs for the Army, the Navy, and the
Marine Corps in the range of $7,500 to $15,000. Because Air Force recruit-
ers average about 25 highly qualified contracts per recruiter, marginal
recruiter cost for the Air Force is much lower (about $3,400~.
The marginal cost of highly qualified enlistments brought about by
an expansion in advertising can be calculated similarly. At 1997 budget
levels, Warner, Simon, and Payne calculated the marginal cost of recruits
via an expansion of Army advertising to be about $10,700. Because they
Submarginal cost estimates reported here are inclusive of "rents." Rents are the amounts
over and above that amount necessary to obtain the recruits. They are more important for
some ways of obtaining additional recruits than others. For example, additional recruits
will be attracted to enlist if there is an increase in first-term pay. But because all recruits,
even those who would have enlisted without the increase in first-term pay, would receive
the pay increase, rents from this method of increasing recruits supplied are large. In con-
trast, rents associated with increasing recruits through the efforts of additional recruiters
are negligible. From the perspective of the economy as a whole, rents are approximately a
transfer payment, neither a cost nor a benefit. They represent resources transferred from
some to others in the economy, although there may be additional costs if the resources are
taxed from some, and this taxation affects behavior. Nonrent costs are always costs to the
economy. They represent resources used up in the production of some good or service.
Hence, if two or more ways of increasing the supply of qualified recruits have the same
marginal cost when rents are included, the one with the lower marginal cost excluding
rents is preferred from the perspective of the economy as a whole.
OCR for page 90
estimated a larger responsiveness of enlistment to advertising than those
obtained in some of the studies summarized in Table 5-2, marginal adver-
tising costs could in fact be greater.
The logistics functional form employed by Dertouzos and Garber
implies high marginal advertising costs at low levels of enlistment fol-
lowed by declining marginal costs in the midrange of advertising outlays
and then by high marginal costs as advertising reaches a saturation point
(which may depend on the target market and the advertising message
strategy). Dertouzos and Garber calculated that, at 1993-1997 advertising
budget levels, the marginal cost of a DoD highly qualified male enlist-
ment via total advertising to be about $37,000. But FY 1993-1997 was a
period of relatively low advertising; advertising outlays rose dramatically
in the FY 1998-2000 period. Dertouzos and Garber (2003) calculated that,
at an advertising spending level roughly double the average level prevail-
ing in the FY 1993-1997 period, marginal advertising costs for highly
qualified male contracts would fall to about $10,500. Furthermore, accord-
ing to their calculations, marginal costs of the recruits obtained via TV
advertising would continue to fall over a much higher range of spending
before beginning to increase.ll
Estimates of the Effects of Other Resources
Econometric methods can be applied to estimate the effects of other
resources not often considered in the traditional enlistment supply model.
An example is an econometric estimate of the effect of the number and
location of recruiting stations on recruit supply (Hogan, Mehay, and
Hughes, 1998~. In this analysis, an enlistment supply model was estimated
that was not dissimilar from the models described above. It consisted of a
pooled time series of cross-sections. The dependent variable was specified
as enlistments in a given zip code area. Explanatory variables included,
among other things, distance to the nearest recruiting station. This per-
mitted assessment of the effect of recruiting station location on enlistment
supply. Estimates indicated that the number and location of recruiting
stations had a significant effect on recruiting.
Econometric methods can often be applied to include additional
resources or factors that could potentially affect recruiting. The data for
the additional resource or factor must be available for the same cross-
1lThese cost estimates are dependent on the assumed functional (logistic) form. While
certainly the most plausible functional form found in the recruiting literature, more work
clearly needs to be done to verify that it fits the data better than other forms. Given the
difficulty of estimating the model and the probable fragility of their estimates, Dertouzos
and Garber stress the need for more work in this area.
OCR for page 90
sectional and time-series dimensions as the other variables included in
the model. What is important is that the effect of the additional variable
be included in a model that also includes all other resources or factors
affecting recruiting. Failure to include all other variables increases the
likelihood of obtaining a biased estimate of the effect.
Effects of Recruiters
Aspects of the econometric estimates of the effects of recruiters on
enlistment supply can be improved by a relatively straightforward exten-
sion of existing models. First, an individual recruiter's productivity varies
with experience. Newly assigned recruiters typically produce few or even
no recruits in their first six months on station. Over the next 18 months,
productivity rises and reaches a plateau. Then productivity begins to
decline as the recruiter prepares to rotate back to his or her primary skill
area.l2 Hence, one can expect the productivity of recruiters to vary sys-
tematically with experience. When the recruiting force increases signifi-
cantly in a short period of time, average experience declines. Similarly,
when the recruiting force declines rapidly, it is usually by a dispropor-
tionate decline in new recruits, increasing average experience and pro-
Failure to account for the effect of these changes on the average expe-
rience and average productivity of recruiters as a whole may bias the
measured recruiter productivity toward zero. By measuring the average
experience or tenure of recruiters in the estimation equation, it may be
possible to improve the precision of estimates and perhaps eliminate a
bias in the estimation of recruiter effects on supply. Moreover, by estimat-
ing econometric models for which the dependent variable is a measure of
individual recruiter productivity, insights can be gleaned regarding fac-
tors affecting individual productivity.
A second issue in measuring the effects of recruiters is to expand the
analysis of recruiter incentives beyond the effects of aggregate quotas.
This would attempt to capture econometrically the more sophisticated
Service "point" systems and other complex incentive structures (see Asch,
1990, for an early analysis of the Navy recruiter point system).
Finally, a third issue that has not been addressed in the literature is to
include the effects of reserve force competition on active-duty recruiting.
While other Service competition has been included in several econometric
12 This is described for a cohort of recruiters in McCloy et al. (2001)
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specifications, no models have incorporated reserve force component
competition for nonprior service recruits. For the selected reserve force,
the proportion of nonprior-service recruits is likely to rise relative to those
who affiliate while leaving active-duty service, simply because active
strength has declined and retention has increased. This may foster greater
competition with active recruiting, in that in many instances they are
competing for recruits from the same set of high school seniors and others.
Incorporating reserve force recruiting into active-duty recruiting models
may help explain the potential interactions, while providing estimates of
the factors affecting reserve force recruiting.
Advertising Content
Econometric estimates that incorporate the effect of advertising have
measured advertising largely as homogenous counts of "impressions"-
the number in relevant populations who see or hear the advertisement-
or expenditures by period and geographic location. They have not
attempted to get inside the expenditure or impression to measure differ-
ences in effects by specific advertising content.
Data could be constructed for television advertising that distinguished
the content of the advertisement as well. That is, if there are one or two
dominant advertising themes for a campaign for a given Service in time
period 1, but this changed in time period 2 and again in time period 3, the
advertising variable itself could be constructed to allow for different
effects for the same ostensible level of advertising (impressions or expen-
ditures) over each of these three periods.
Previous econometric models have separately distinguished the
effects of various types of advertising on recruiting. Radio, magazine, or
print advertising and television advertising have been distinguished, for
example. If the time periods for major television advertising themes or
campaigns can also be distinguished in the data, it is not difficult to specify
the model to allow them to have separate effects. Distinguishing different
effects for television advertising based on the content of the advertise-
ments themselves, however, would be difficult because one would be
attributing a portion of the variation over time in recruiting to the shift
among advertising themes or specific advertisements. The model specifi-
cation and supporting data must be solid to isolate the effects.
An alternative approach to allowing separate estimates by advertis-
ing campaign would be to try and isolate essential elements of an adver-
tising theme and measure them in continuous variables. This would
undoubtedly entail some subjectivity. One could, however, classify ads
by the seconds devoted to three or four themes training, postservice
education, compensation, adventure, and patriotism, for example. This
OCR for page 90
would be an interesting exercise, but it would not distinguish differences
in the quality of a given message within a given theme. That is, it would
not distinguish between good advertisements that feature training as a
theme from bad advertisements that feature training as a theme.
Hence, we suggest that initial attempts in this area try to test for
differences in effects of advertising campaigns by allowing distinguish-
able campaigns to have different effects. Then, if it is established that
effects do appear to vary significantly by content and not just dollars or
expenditures, a second step would be to try to understand how content
variation affects recruiting.
More Flexible Functional Forms
A limitation of much of the empirical research is that the functional
forms of the econometric specifications have been relatively restricted.
Perhaps one way to understand some of the implications of the particular
functional forms is to consider an enlistment supply equation as analo-
gous to a production function for recruits. The log-log form of the supply
curve that has been popular forces elasticity estimates to be constant,
regardless of level of recruiting activity or of the particular recruiting
factor. Moreover, when the RCF is derived from such estimates, it is
readily seen that the factor shares of each price resource the proportion
of total cost of production attributable to each resource are constant
regardless of how the prices of resources change.
More flexible functional forms would provide less restrictive con-
straints on parameter estimates. In the literature reviewed, this is particu-
larly important for the measurement of the effects of advertising and for
modeling the effects on recruiter incentives. But it is also important to
obtain more precise and useful estimates of the effects of resources in
general. The more flexible functional forms, such as the trans-log formu-
lation, typically require richer data for estimation. This is in part because
these forms allow the data to determine whether the effects of factors may
vary with scale or with relative proportions of other factors, rather than
imposing them as constraints in the mathematical formulation. As panel
data become more refined and become available over longer periods,
application of more flexible functional forms can perhaps provide new
sets of insights on factors affecting recruiting.
A theme underlying all of the suggested areas for improvement is the
need for better data, consistently collected and retained over time. Sug-
gested improvements in estimates of the effects of advertising, recruiters,
and other incentives will require more sophisticated functional forms and
more detailed specification of effects. This places greater demands on
data than has historically been the case.
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Ideally, these data should include enlistment contract and accession
data, by level of qualification and Service, at the lowest reasonable level of
aggregation and time period. Data at the individual recruit level, coupled
with information regarding timing of enlistment, home (zip code) of the
recruit, and recruiting station should be maintained over time. Impor-
tantly, the data should also include information on the resources and
incentives that have been applied and the external factors that were in
effect during the period, as well as indications of recruiting policies,
incentives, quotas, and so forth. Advertising data, which we discuss in
several places, should contain information not simply on impressions or
dollar expenditures, but also include a systematic characterization of
advertising content, if these are to be evaluated. These data should, again,
be able to be tied to the recruiting data at the lowest reasonable level of


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