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Estimation of groundwater recharge and discharge across northern
18th World IMACS / MODSIM Congress, Cairns, Australia 13-17 July 2009 http://mssanz.org.au/modsim09 Estimation of groundwater recharge and discharge across northern Australia Russell S. Crosbie1, James L. McCallum1 & Glenn A. Harrington1 1 CSIRO Water for a Healthy Country National Research Flagship, CLW, PMB 2, Glen Osmond SA 5064 Email: email@example.com Abstract: Groundwater recharge is one of the more difficult components of the hydrological cycle to estimate but one that is becoming increasingly important as Australia turns to groundwater resources for future economic development. Also of concern is groundwater discharge. The extraction of groundwater by pumping inevitably reduces groundwater discharge to rivers where the two are connected. Knowledge of both groundwater recharge and discharge is required for effective management of groundwater resources. Across northern Australia there are few detailed studies investigating groundwater recharge and discharge and none that have applied three independent estimates across 1.2 million km2. In this study, groundwater recharge has been estimated by upscaling the results from a 1-D soil-vegetation-atmosphere-transfer (SVAT) model (WAVES) and a chloride mass balance. Groundwater discharge to surface water has been estimated through baseflow separation of gauged stream flow data. The SVAT model was used at a point scale to develop relationships between rainfall and recharge for different combinations of soil and vegetation types. These relationships were used to upscale recharge across northern Australia on a 0.05° grid using maps of soil, vegetation and annual average rainfall as co-variates. A chloride mass balance requires measurements of chloride deposition and concentration of chloride in groundwater. A review of field studies over the last few decades has provided a relationship between chloride deposition and distance from the coast; this has enabled a raster layer to be developed of chloride deposition across northern Australia. The chloride concentrations in groundwater have been assessed from data collected by the WA, NT and Qld state agencies. The baseflow analysis was conducted on gauged data collected by the WA, NT and Qld state agencies using the Eckhardt (2005) filter and converted to a depth using the catchment area as determined using a digital elevation model. At a point scale both estimates of recharge and the estimate of discharge showed a range of over three orders of magnitude, from less than 1 mm/yr to over 1000 mm/yr. As a gross generalisation, the relative magnitudes between the three methods were as expected from a conceptual point of view: the upscaling of the SVAT model had the greatest recharge; the chloride mass balance method gave less recharge than the upscaling of the SVAT model; and, the groundwater discharge was the lowest of the three estimates. The upscaling of the SVAT model is an estimate of gross recharge (water added to the saturated zone), the chloride mass balance is an estimate of net recharge (gross recharge – ET from GW) and the baseflow is groundwater discharge to surface water which should be less than recharge due to groundwater extraction and ET from the riparian zone. Each technique therefore provides complementary information to assist future groundwater resource planning in northern Australia. Keywords: recharge, discharge, chloride mass balance, baseflow separation, WAVES model 3053 Crosbie et al., Estimation of groundwater recharge and discharge across northern Australia 1. INTRODUCTION The long-term management of groundwater resources requires careful estimation of the key components of the groundwater balance, including recharge and discharge. Traditionally the setting of upper limits for groundwater allocations has been on the basis of average recharge, but recent acknowledgement that surface water and groundwater are linked has required that the impact of pumping upon groundwater discharge is considered when setting water allocations. It has long been argued (Bredehoeft, 2007; Theis, 1940) that the size of a groundwater resource is determined by the amount of captured discharge and induced recharge, rather than the rate of natural recharge. A determination of the amount of natural recharge and discharge is thus a useful step toward estimating the capture. There are few methods available to estimate groundwater recharge and discharge over very large, data–poor areas. We have used three independent methods to estimate the recharge and discharge across 1.2*106 km2 of northern Australia. This area is largely undeveloped and so the estimates of recharge and discharge attempted here represent close to natural conditions. 2. METHODS While the methods employed here are suited to large data poor areas it is important to understand that they are not estimating the same quantity and so cannot be directly compared. Gross recharge (Rg) is water that passes the root zone and crosses the plane of the water table, net recharge (Rn) is that proportion of groundwater recharge that is not subject to evapotranspiration and groundwater discharge is groundwater that leaves the saturated zone as baseflow (B) to streams or evapotranspiration. Gross recharge has been estimated by upscaling the results of a 1-D SVAT model, which assumes that water that flows through the soil column becomes recharge. The model assumes a 4 m soil column with a free draining lower boundary condition. Net recharge is estimated using a steady state chloride mass balance. Groundwater discharge has been estimated using a digital filter on stream gauging data; thus only estimating the baseflow component of groundwater discharge. A relative comparison of each method will be presented at the scale of the 13 reporting regions (~100,000 km2) defined for the Northern Australia Sustainable Yields Project (CSIRO, 2009). 2.1. Gross Recharge The 1-D SVAT Model WAVES (Zhang and Dawes, 1998) has been used to model unsaturated zone water transport at a series of control points that encompass the rainfall gradient across the study area. The WAVES model parameters were derived from national datasets of climate (SILO) (Figure 1a) (Jeffrey et al., 2001), soils (ASRIS) (Figure 1b) (McKenzie et al., 2005) and vegetation (IVC03) (Figure 1c) (BRS, 2003). At each of 23 control points every combination of 12 soil types and 3 vegetation types encountered across northern Australia has been modelled to generate regression equations between average annual rainfall and average annual recharge. These regression equations have been combined with rasters of annual rainfall and soil and vegetation type to enable gross recharge to be estimated on a 0.05° grid. Gross recharge for a given reporting region could then be aggregated from the raster. 2.2. Net Recharge The steady state chloride mass balance (CMB) approach is based upon the fact that evapotranspiration removes water but not chloride and hence chloride is concentrated in the groundwater. Knowing the chloride deposition and concentration of chloride in groundwater enables an estimate of the net recharge to be made. Eriksson (1985) showed that it is the arithmetic mean of the deposition (D) and the harmonic mean of the groundwater chloride concentrations (Cgw) that are used in the CMB: R n = D (1/ Cgw ) (1) Literature values of chloride deposition across northern Australia were collated and a regression equation was fitted with chloride deposition versus distance from the coast. The double exponential form of the regression equation has previously been used by Keywood et al. (1997). The use of the regression equation enabled chloride deposition to be modelled on a 0.05° grid across northern Australia. 3054 Crosbie et al., Estimation of groundwater recharge and discharge across northern Australia Figure 1. (a) Average annual rainfall (1930-2007) across northern Australia, also showing the reporting regions for the Northern Australia Sustainable Yields project (the abbreviations are defined in Figure 4) (b) Soil Types of northern Australia [TE – Tenosols, KA – Kandasols, FE – Ferrosols, CH – Chromosols, KU – Kurosols, VE – Vertosols, RU – Rudosols, DE – Dermosols, CA – Calcarosols, SO – Sodosols, HY – Hydrosols, PO – Podosols] (c) simplified vegetation types of northern Australia (d) Gross recharge as estimated from the upscaling of point modeling using WAVES (e) Chloride deposition across northern Australia and the locations of previous field measurements of chloride depositon (f) Chloride concentration in groundwater (points) and baseflow (patches) (g) Net recharge as determined by chloride mass balance in groundwater (points) and baseflow (patches) (h) Baseflow as determined using a digital filter of gauged streamflow. 3055 Crosbie et al., Estimation of groundwater recharge and discharge across northern Australia The chloride concentration of groundwater was estimated from all measurements recorded in the state databases for bores drilled less than 20 m deep. In some areas there was very little data so the chloride concentration of streams during the dry season was also used. Using the stream concentrations of chloride assumes that the stream is entirely groundwater fed during the dry season. Where stream chloride concentrations have been used they are treated as a point estimate in the same way as the chloride measurements of groundwater. 2.3. Baseflow A recursive digital filter was used to separate the baseflow from the total flow at all the gauging stations where chloride measurements were available across northern Australia. Although the most widely used filter in Australia is still the one proposed by Lynne and Hollick (1979), this has no physical basis and has been criticised for not being able to match tracer studies (Grayson et al., 1996). The form of the filter used for this study is as suggested by Eckhardt (2005): bk = (1 − BFI max ) abk −1 + (1 − a) BFI max yk (2) 1 − a BFI max where bk is baseflow at time k, yk is total flow at time k, BFImax and a are fitting parameters. The values used for the fitting parameters are parameters recommended by Eckhardt (2005) as appropriate for an ephemeral stream with a porous aquifer; BFImax = 0.5, and a = 0.925. These parameters make this filter equivalent to the one proposed by Chapman and Maxwell (1996). The baseflow was averaged over the time of gaugings to obtain an annual average; this was divided by the area of the gauged sub catchment to get the baseflow as a depth which can then be readily compared to the estimates of gross and net recharge. It was assumed that the effect of missing values in the gauging record would be minimal across the timeframe of investigation. To aggregate results to a reporting region, an area averaged baseflow depth was used. In nested catchments, the area used is the area that is not measured by another gauge. In this way an area is only counted once no matter how many gauges are downstream of that point. 3. RESULTS 3.1. Gross Recharge From the 828 (23*12*3) WAVES model runs, regression equations were developed relating annual average rainfall and annual average gross recharge for each combination of soil (kandasols and vertosols shown here) and vegetation type (annuals, perennials and trees). Gross recharge was found to be higher under annual vegetation than perennial vegetation and was also found to be higher under coarse textured soils than heavy clays (Figure 2). This is consistent with previous field and modelling studies. These regression equations were used with rasters of average annual rainfall and soil and vegetation type to create a raster of gross recharge (Figure 1d). This raster of gross recharge generally follows the same pattern as the rainfall with high rainfall corresponding to high recharge. The exception to this is areas of Vertosol soil type where gross recharge is particularly low irrespective of rainfall. 3.2. Net Recharge There were 21 locations with chloride deposition estimates collated from the literature over the past few decades; this is spatially variable and conspicuous by the complete lack of data from within the study region in Queensland (Figure 1e). There is a lot of scatter in the relationship between chloride deposition (D) and the distance from the coast (x) resulting in a wide confidence interval around the line of best fit (Figure 3). The regression equation fitted was: −11 D = 44.2e −0.0288 x + 2.83e −4.05*10 x (3) 3056 Crosbie et al., Estimation of groundwater recharge and discharge across northern Australia Figure 2. Relationship between average annual rainfall and annual average gross recharge for two different soil types and three vegetation types. The dots on the figure represent the output from the WAVES model and the lines are an exponential regression line fit through the WAVES outputs. Figure 3. Relationship developed between chloride deposition and distance from the coast using a double exponential decay function. The left plot shows chloride deposition on a linear scale and the right plot shows chloride deposition on a logarithmic scale. The amount of data available for the estimation of chloride in groundwater is not great. There were 2759 bores with data and this was supplemented with 210 surface water locations with estimates of dry season chloride. The most data poor area was the Kimberley (KI) with no estimates of chloride in groundwater and only 11 gauging stations with measurements of dry season chloride concentration in surface water. The most data rich area was Van Dieman (VD) which had 1527 bores with measurements of chloride in groundwater and 56 gauging stations with measurements of dry season chloride concentration in surface water. The individual estimates of net recharge from a single bore or gauging station were quite variable (Figure 1g) ranging from 1 to >1000 mm/yr from the surface water estimates and from 0.1 to >1000 mm/yr from the groundwater estimates. The extreme values are recorded from locations with very little data and on occasion only a single estimate of chloride concentration. When all the observations from a reporting region are combined an average estimate of the net recharge is always less than the rainfall. 3.3. Baseflow The results of the baseflow separation were also spatially variable (Figure 1h) with a highest value of 1700 mm and the lowest of <1 mm. As has been found in other studies (Petheram et al., 2008) the baseflow index increased with increasing catchment size. It is hard to distinguish whether this is due to increased 3057 Crosbie et al., Estimation of groundwater recharge and discharge across northern Australia groundwater discharge in the lower parts of a catchment or peakflow attenuation; the actual process is hard to discern. 3.4. Comparison between results When the different methods are aggregated to a common reporting level they can be compared. Care needs to be taken as the three methods are not estimating the same quantity and the estimates used in the aggregation are not spatially consistent between methods (Figure 1). The working hypothesis was that gross recharge should be the highest and baseflow the lowest. However, this occurred in only 3 of the 13 reporting regions (LHS Figure 4). Generally the gross recharge estimates were greater than the net recharge estimates (9/13) and the baseflow estimates (12/13). The calculation of net recharge allowed error estimates to be calculated from the 90% confidence limits in the chloride deposition and the chloride concentration. These error estimates are very wide due to uncertainty in the chloride deposition estimates, and in 9 of the 13 reporting regions, the error bars on the net recharge encompass the estimates of gross recharge and baseflow. A scale that can be directly compared is the estimated net recharge determined using the surface water (SW) chloride concentration during the dry season and the estimated baseflow when the two estimates are for the same gauging station (RHS Figure 4). The comparison shows that at a point scale the correlation between the two methods is generally consistent. Further, at the broad scale, spatial patterns of recharge and discharge are as expected, with the highest recharge and discharge in the highest rainfall areas of the Van Dieman, Western Cape and Northern Coral Sea and the lowest recharge and discharge estimated to be in the low rainfall areas of Flinders-Leichardt and South-West Gulf. Figure 4. Comparison of methods. The left plot shows a comparison between the three methods at the scale of the reporting regions as defined by the Northern Australia Sustainable Yields Project. The right plot compares the baseflow and CMB at the catchment scale, the straight line represents a 1:1 relationship. 4. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS Three methods were successfully used in estimating recharge or discharge across northern Australia. Each is reliant upon parameter sets which need high levels of estimation as they are not routinely measured in many areas. However, each method is particularly dependant on estimates of key data sets. Thus the gross recharge estimations are very dependant upon soil properties, particularly hydraulic conductivity; different soil types can produce recharge estimates that differ by orders of magnitude. Hence this approach is dependant upon the accuracy of soil mapping. Net recharge estimates are very sensitive to estimates of chloride deposition; the wide confidence intervals shown here demonstrate that the data availability is less than ideal to use this methodology across this area. Separating stream flow into quickflow and baseflow using digital filters assumes that the filters are capable of baseflow separation, there are many different filters that have been used in the past and most have very little justification in terms of representing physical processes. The literature values used for the filter require further validation for Northern Australia. 3058 Crosbie et al., Estimation of groundwater recharge and discharge across northern Australia Despite the limitations of the estimates of recharge and discharge presented here, they demonstrate that national broadscale data sets can be used effectively in estimating recharge and discharge in relatively undeveloped data poor areas. This analysis can indicate where more detailed field based measurements need to be undertaken to reduce uncertainty if detailed water resource planning in stressed areas is to be achieved. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This work is supported by the Northern Australia Sustainable Yields Project conducted by CSIRO and funded by the National Water Commission under their Raising National Water Standards Program. The streamflow data, the chloride concentrations in groundwater data and the chloride concentrations in streamflow data were supplied by the state agencies: Queensland Department of Natural Resources and Water, Western Australian Department of Water, and the Northern Territory Department of Natural Resources, Environment, The Arts and Sport. REFERENCES Bredehoeft, J., 2007. It is the discharge. Ground Water, 45(5): 523-523. BRS, 2003. Integrated Vegetation Cover (2003) Version 1, Bureau of Rural Sciences, Canberra. Chapman, T.G. and Maxwell, A.I., 1996. Baseflow separation - comparison of numerical methods with tracer experiments, 23rd Hydrology and Water Resources Symposium, Hobart, Australia, pp. 539-545. CSIRO, 2009. Description of methods. A report to the Australian Government from the CSIRO Northern Australia Sustainable Yields Project, CSIRO, Australia. Eckhardt, K., 2005. How to construct recursive digital filters for baseflow separation. Hydrological Processes, 19(2): 507-515. Eriksson, E., 1985. Principles and applications of hydrochemistry. Chapman and Hall Ltd, New York. Grayson, R., Argent, R., Nathan, R., McMahon, T. and Mein, R., 1996. Hydrological recipes: Estimation techniques in Australian hydrology. CRC Catchment Hydrology, Melbourne, 125 pp. Jeffrey, S.J., Carter, J.O., Moodie, K.B. and Beswick, A.R., 2001. Using spatial interpolation to construct a comprehensive archive of Australian climate data. Environmental Modelling & Software, 16(4): 309-330. Keywood, M.D., Chivas, A.R., Fifield, L.K., Cresswell, R.G. and Ayres, G.P., 1997. The accession of chloride to the western half of the Australian continent. Australian Journal of Soil Research, 35: 1177-89. Lynne, V. and Hollick, M., 1979. Stochastic time variable rainfall runoff modelling, Hydrology and Water Resources Symposium, Perth, Australia, pp. 89-92. McKenzie, N.J., Jacquier, D.W., Maschmedt, D.J., Griffin, E.A. and Brough, D.M., 2005. The Australian Soil Resource Information System - Technical specifications, CSIRO, Canberra. Petheram, C., McMahon, T.A. and Peel, M.C., 2008. Flow characteristics of rivers in northern Australia: Implications for development. Journal of Hydrology, 357(1-2): 93-111. Theis, C.V., 1940. The source of water derived from wells: Essential factors controlling the response of an aquifer to development. Civil Engineering, 10(5): 277-280. Zhang, L. and Dawes, W., 1998. WAVES - An integrated energy and water balance model. Technical Report No. 31/98, CSIRO Land and Water. 3059


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Angler's Mail 26 February 2013
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text: Lecture Eight Finance Theory The Capital Assets Pricing Model A Keynesian Critique A Keynesian Alternative Recap • "Breakdown" of Phillips curve • Rise of neoclassicism • Critiques of logical foundations of neoclassical micro • Today – Neoclassical foundations of finance theory – Some problems – An alternative view • Fisher"s "Debt-Deflation theory of Great Depressions" elaborated • Minsky"s Financial Instability Hypothesis • Peter"s Fractal Markets Hypothesis – Prospects for US… The Capital Assets Pricing Model • Problem: How to "predict the behaviour of capital markets" • Solution: extension of economic theories of investment under certainty... – to investment under conditions of risk • Based on neoclassical utility theory • Investor maximises utility subject to (s.t.) constraints • Utility is a: – Positive function(+ive fn) of expected return ER – -ive fn of risk (standard deviation) sR • Constraints are available spectrum of investment opportunities The Capital Assets Pricing Model "Efficient" Investment opportunities opportunities on the edge Z inferior to C (lower ER) Indifference and B curves (higher sR) Increasing utility: Optimal Higher expected combination returns & lower risk for this investor Border (AFBDCX) is Investment Opportunity Curve (IOC) The Capital Assets Pricing Model • IOC reflects correlation of separate investments. Consider 3 investments A, B, C: – A contains investment A only • Expected return is ERa, Variance due to A • Risk is sRa Perceived – B contains investment B only correlation of A • Expected return is ERb, with B • Risk is sRb (varies between -1 – C some combination of a of A & (1-a) of B & +1) • ERc=aERa + (1-a)ERb s Rc .s Ra (1 ) s Rb 2. rab . . 1 .s Ra .s Rb 2 2 2 2 The Capital Assets Pricing Model • If rab=1, C lies on straight line between A & B: This is 1 s Rc 2 .s Ra 2 (1 ) 2 s Rb 2 2. rab . . 1 .s Ra .s Rb The Capital Assets Pricing Model • If rab=1, C lies on straight line between A & B: s Rc 2 .s Ra 2 (1 ) 2 s Rb 2 2. rab . . 1 .s Ra .s Rb 2 .s Ra 2 (1 ) 2 s Rb 2 2. . 1 .s Ra .s Rb This can be factored The Capital Assets Pricing Model • If rab=1, C lies on straight line between A & B: s Rc .s Ra (1 ) s Rb 2. rab . . 1 .s Ra .s Rb 2 2 2 2 .s Ra (1 ) s Rb 2. . 1 .s Ra .s Rb 2 2 2 2 .s Ra (1 ).s Rb .s Ra (1 )s Rb 2 Identical to straight line relation for expected return: The Capital Assets Pricing Model sR W h en rab= 1 B t In v e sm en t O ppo r tun ity C C u rv e A ER The Capital Assets Pricing Model • If rab=0, C lies on curved path between A & B: This is zero s Rc 2 .s Ra 2 (1 ) 2 s Rb 2 2. rab . . 1 .s Ra .s Rb Hence this is zero The Capital Assets Pricing Model • If rab=0, C lies on curved path between A & B: s Rc .s Ra (1 ) s Rb 2. rab . . 1 .s Ra .s Rb 2 2 2 2 2 .s Ra 2 (1 ) 2 s Rb 2 The Capital Assets Pricing Model • If rab=0, C lies on curved path between A & B: s Rc 2 .s Ra 2 (1 ) 2 s Rb 2 2. rab . . 1 .s Ra .s Rb 2 .s Ra 2 (1 ) 2 s Rb 2 Straight line relation .s Ra (1 )s Rb 2 Hence lower risk for diversified portfolio (if assets not perfectly correlated) The Capital Assets Pricing Model sR W h en rab< 1 B t In v e sm en t O ppo r tun ity C Fall in sR due to diversification C u rv e when investments A are not perfectly correlated ER The Capital Assets Pricing Model • Sharpe assumes riskless asset P with ERP=pure interest rate, sRP=0. • Investor can form portfolio of P with any other combination of assets • One asset combination will initially dominate all others: The Capital Assets Pricing Model Efficiency: maximise expected return & minimise risk given constraints Only asset combination which can efficiently be combined with riskless asset P in a portfolio The Capital Assets Pricing Model • Assume limitless borrowing/lending at riskless interest rate = return on asset P • Investor can move to anywhere along PfZ line by borrowing/lending • Problem: – P the same for all investors ("simplifying assumption") – But investor perceptions of expected return, risk, investment correlation will differ • Solution: – assume "homogeneity of investor expectations" [OREF II] – utterly unrealistic assumption, as is assumption of limitless borrowing by all borrowers at riskless interest rate. So... The Capital Assets Pricing Model • Defended by appeal to Friedman"s "Instrumentalism" (next lecture): – "the proper test of a theory is not the realism of its assumptions but the acceptability of its implications" • Consequence of assumptions: – spectrum of available investments/IOC identical for all investors – P same for all investors – PfZ line same for all investors – Investors distribute along line by borrowing/lending according to own risk preferences: The Capital Assets Pricing Model Thrill seeker... Highly risk-averse The Capital Assets Pricing Model • Next, the (perfect) market mechanism – Price of assets in f will rise – Price of assets not in f will fall – Price changes shift expected returns – Causes new pattern of efficient investments aligned with PfZ line: The Capital Assets Pricing Model Capital market line Range of efficient asset combinations after market price adjustments: more than just one efficient portfolio The Capital Assets Pricing Model • Theory so far applies to combinations of assets • Individual assets normally lie above capital market line (no diversification) • Can"t relate between ERi & si • Can relate ERi to "systematic risk": • Investment i can be part of efficient combination g: – Can invest (additional) in i and (1-) in g • =1 means invest solely in i; • =0 means some investment in i (since part of portfolio g); • Some <0 means no investment in i; • Only =0 is "efficient" The Capital Assets Pricing Model Single investment i which is part of Efficient portfolio g combination g Additional investment in i is zero (a=0) here The Capital Assets Pricing Model • Slope of IOC and igg" curve at tangency can be used to derive relation for expected return of single asset E Ri P rig s Ri s Rg E Rg P • This allows correlation of variation in ERi to variation in ERg (undiversifiable, or systematic, or "trade cycle" risk) • Remaining variation is due to risk inherent in i: The Capital Assets Pricing Model Risk peculiar to asset i Higher return for assets more strongly affected by trade cycle (systematic risk The Capital Assets Pricing Model • Efficient portfolio enables investor to minimise asset specific risk • Systematic risk (risk inherent in efficient portfolio) can"t be diversified against • Hence market prices adjust to degree of responsiveness of investments to trade cycle: – "Assets which are unaffected by changes in economic activity will return the pure interest rate; those which move with economic activity will promise appropriately higher expected rates of return." [OREF II] The Capital Assets Pricing Model • Crux/basis of model: markets efficiently value investments on basis of expected returns/risk tradeoff • Modigliani-Miller extend model to argue valuation of firms independent of debt structure (see OREF II) • Combination: the "efficient markets hypothesis" • Focus on portfolio allocation across investments at a point in time, rather than trend of value over time • Argues investors focus on "fundamentals": – Expected return – Risk • So long as assumptions are defensible… The Capital Assets Pricing Model • In order to derive conditions for equilibrium in the capital market we invoke two assumptions. First, we assume a common pure rate of interest, with all investors able to borrow or lend funds on equal terms. Second, we assume homogeneity of investor expectations: investors are assumed to agree on the prospects of various investments–the expected values, standard deviations and correlation coefficients described in Part II. Needless to say, these are highly restrictive and undoubtedly unrealistic assumptions. However, since the proper test of a theory is not the realism of its assumptions but the acceptability of its implications, and since these assumptions imply equilibrium conditions which form a major part of classical financial doctrine, it is far from clear that this formulation should be rejected–especially in view of the dearth of alternative models leading to similar results. (Sharpe 1964 [1991]; emphasis added) • But Sharpe later admits to some qualms with this: The CAPM: Reservations • "People often hold passionately to beliefs that are far from universal. The seller of a share of IBM stock may be convinced that it is worth considerably less than the sales price. The buyer may be convinced that it is worth considerably more." (Sharpe 1970) • However, if we try to be more realistic: – "The consequence of accommodating such aspects of reality are likely to be disastrous in terms of the usefulness of the resulting theory... The capital market line no longer exists. Instead, there is a capital market curve–linear over some ranges, perhaps, but becoming flatter as [risk] increases over other ranges. Moreover, there is no single optimal combination of risky securities; the preferred combination depends upon the investors" preferences... The demise of the capital market line is followed immediately by that of the security market line. The theory is in a shambles." (Sharpe 1970 emphasis added) A Keynesian view • Key issue is uncertainty, not risk – Cannot possibly estimate expected returns far into future: • "our basis of knowledge for estimating the yield ten years hence of [an investment] amounts to little... those who seriously attempt to make any such estimate are often so much in the minority that their behaviour does not govern the market." – Instead, conventions to cope with uncertain future: • "assume that the present is a ... serviceable guide to the future… that the existing state of ... prices ... is based on a correct summing up of future prospects… we endeavor to fall back on the judgment of the rest of the world which is perhaps better informed." Keynes"s view • Investors profit by picking shifts in confidence: – "the professional investor and speculator are ... concerned, not with making superior long-term forecasts of the probable yield of an investment over its whole life, but with foreseeing changes in the conventional basis of valuation a short time ahead of the general public… this behaviour... is an inevitable result of an investment market... For it is not sensible to pay 25 for an investment of which you believe the prospective yield to justify a value of 30, if you also believe that the market will value it at 20 three months hence." [OREF II] • Markets thus conducted by speculation on immediate behaviour of other speculators, rather than rational calculation: Keynes"s view • Recall earlier lectures on Keynes and uncertainty • The Stockmarket as a beauty contest and "the third degree": – "… pick out the six prettiest faces … the prize being awarded to the competitor whose choice most nearly corresponds to the average preferences of the competitors as a whole... We have reached the third degree where we devote our intelligences to anticipating what average opinion expects the average opinion to be." • The practicality of rational calculation?: – "Investment based on genuine long-term expectation is … scarcely practicable. He who attempts it must surely … run greater risks than he who tries to guess better than the crowd how the crowd will behave…" The "Price system" and Asset Markets • Normal micro theory: – Supply a positive function of price – Demand a negative function of price – Supply and demand independent • If price rises – Supply rises – Demand falls – Tendency towards equilibrium • But finance markets – Supply (of assets, shares) possibly a positive function of price – Demand also a positive function of price: The "Price system" and Asset Markets • If price of assets (shares, real estate, etc.) rising, demand also rises • Buyers hope to buy and sell on a rising market • The faster the rate of price increase (generally speaking) the faster the growth of demand • Tendency to move away from "equilibrium" ("fundamental value", historic price to earnings ratios, etc.) • Price thus destabilises an asset market • An alternative theory to equilibrium-oriented conventional finance theory needed which acknowledges destabilising role of asset prices • Derived from Fisher and Keynes by Minsky Fisher: Keynes"s unlikely ally • Conventional theory of finance an extension of Fisher"s Theory of Interest (1930) – The rate of interest "expresses a price in the exchange between present and future goods" – Three elements combine to determine rate of interest: • Subjective: "the marginal preference for present over future goods" – strong preference: borrower; weak preference: lender; balance determines supply of funds • Objective: "investment opportunity" determines demand for funds • The Market: equilibrium interest rate equates supply to demand Fisher: Keynes"s unlikely ally • "Market for loans" differs from normal market: – normal market, payment made and goods exchanged simultaneously (in absence of credit) – Loans: goods (loaned money) exchanged now; repayment (principal + interest) occurs later • Two special assumptions needed to eliminate this difference: – (A) The market must be cleared--and cleared with respect to every interval of time. (B) The debts must be paid. (Fisher 1930: 495) • Fisher"s book published in 1930 • In 1929, Fisher comments "Stocks appear to have reached a permanently high plateau"… and then came October 23rd: "Black Wednesday"… Alternative Finance (1): Financial Instability • Fisher & Keynes blended into alternative theory of finance by Minsky: the "Financial Instability Hypothesis" – partial objective: to explain Great Depressions – overall objective: an alternative economics to neoclassical micro/macro Minsky"s interpretation of Keynes • Two price levels – Commodity prices set by markup on cost of production – Assets / equipment prices based on expected revenue • Volatile basis for expectations essential – Future fundamentally uncertain: "we simply do not know", so conventions developed: • Present accepted as a "serviceable guide" to the future • Current expectations presumed correct • Mass sentiment • Finance demand for money – "it is ... the "financial" facilities which regulate the pace of new investment" [Keynes 1937] Minsky"s Hypothesis • Economy in historical time • Debt-induced recession in recent past • Firms and banks conservative re debt/equity ratios, asset valuation • Only conservative projects are funded • Recovery means conservative projects succeed • Firms and banks revise risk premiums – Accepted debt/equity ratio rises – Assets revalued upwards The Euphoric Economy • Self-fulfilling expectations – Decline in risk aversion causes increase in investment • Investment expansion causes economy to grow faster – Asset prices rise, making speculation on assets profitable – Increased willingness to lend increases money supply (endogenous money) – Riskier investments enabled, asset speculation rises • The emergence of "Ponzi" (Bondy?) financiers – Cash flow from "investments" always less than debt servicing costs – Profits made by selling assets on a rising market – Interest-rate insensitive demand for finance The Assets Boom and Bust • Initial profitability of asset speculation: – reduces debt and interest rate sensitivity – drives up supply of and demand for finance – market interest rates rise • But eventually: – rising interest rates make many once conservative projects speculative – forces non-Ponzi investors to attempt to sell assets to service debts – entry of new sellers floods asset markets – rising trend of asset prices falters or reverses Crisis • Ponzi financiers go bankrupt: – can no longer sell assets for a profit – debt servicing on assets far exceeds cash flows • Asset prices collapse, drastically increasing debt/equity ratios • Endogenous expansion of money supply reverses • Investment evaporates; economic growth slows or reverses • Economy enters a debt-induced recession ... The Aftermath • High Inflation? – Debts repaid by rising price level – Economic growth remains low: Stagflation – Renewal of cycle once debt levels reduced • Low Inflation? – Debts cannot be repaid – Chain of bankruptcy affects even non-speculative businesses – Economic activity remains suppressed: a Depression • Big Government? – Anti-cyclical spending and taxation of government enables debts to be repaid – Renewal of cycle once debt levels reduced Modelling Minsky • A taste of dynamics: a model of Minsky built on Marx"s model of cyclical economy: – "accumulation slackens in consequence of the rise in the price of labour, because the stimulus of gain is blunted. The rate of accumulation lessens; but with its lessening, the primary cause of that lessening vanishes, i.e. the disproportion between capital and exploitable labour power… The price of labor falls again to a level corresponding with the needs of the self-expansion of capital… To put it mathematically, the rate of accumulation is the independent, not the dependent variable; the rate of wages the dependent, not the independent variable." (Marx 1867, 1954: 580- 581) Modelling Minsky • Mechanism is: – high rate of growth causes high level of employment – high level of employment causes increase in wage level – increase in wage level reduces profit – reduced profit reduces investment – lower investment reduces growth rate – lower growth rate reduces employment – lower employment leads to falling wage level – falling wage level restores profitability, restarting cycle Modelling Minsky • Minsky"s theory explicitly based on time and changes in variables over time • Can"t be modelled using simultaneous equations (which ignore time) • Instead have to use – Differential equations (rate of change of y with respect to time is a function of…) – Computer simulation (artificial economies with time- based variables) • Differential equations (normally) show rate of change of one variable as a function of values of another. • Much of classical economics can be described as "verbal differential equations". An example: Malthus on population: Digression: Dynamics & Equations • "I think I may fairly make two postulata. First, That food is necessary to the existence of man. Secondly, That the passion between the sexes is necessary and will remain nearly in its present state..." • " Population, when unchecked, increases in a geometrical ratio. Subsistence increases only in an arithmetical ratio. A slight acquaintance with numbers will shew the immensity of the first power in comparison of the second." • These can be put into "verbal differential equations": – In the absence of food shortages, population grows exponentially – Food increases linearly • In actual differential equations, we get: Malthus"s Population Dynamics d b Births minus 1 dP P dt deaths A small constant for high F/P ratios but Percentage rate rises dramatically as F/P falls below a of change of critical levelP population d F , P F dF a dt No "ceteris paribus": Feedback A from F to P. constant Slope of food Modelling this: output Malthus"s Population Dynamics Putting it all together, we get: "Nonlinear" 1 dP 2 negative b P P P dt C a t feedback Population growth in contribution the absence of food from population shortages Linear attenuating 5 2 10 1.557997 .10 5 feedback from food (C is initial 5 1.5 10 Z 1 1 10 5 level) I don"t think Malthus i 5 10 4 ever realised that this was (roughly) the path 100 0 0 200 400 600 800 1000 he predicted for population... 0 1 .10 0 3 Z i Modelling Minsky • Same type of logic needed to express Minsky"s model of finance – Specify relationships in terms of "rate of change of y is a function of…" – Relate all elements in causal chain until it "loops back" on itself • (Malthus"s theory is incomplete here; there is no "feedback" from population to food) – No more "ceteris paribus" since everything determines everything else, but in a time sequence. • So to model Minsky, we start with Marx 1867 and Goodwin 1967... Modelling Minsky • Causal chain "accelerator" – Capital (K) determines Output (Y) Y K v – Output determines employment (L) L Y – Employment determines wages a productivity (w) – Wages (w´L) determine profit (P) dw U w f – Profit determines investment (I) dt N – Investment I determines capital K Y w L Phillips curve – chain is closed dK k Y K dt K I k K Investment Depreciation function An Economic Model without Finance Basic Goodwin Growth Cycle 1 0.95 Proportion 0.9 0.85 0.8 0.75 0 5 10 15 20 Time Wage Share Employment Equilibrium Wage Share Equilibrium Employment A Economic Model with Finance • Add debt: Debt – Firms borrow when desired investment exceeds profits dD r D I Y W – Debt solely used to dt finance investment Interest rate – Profit is now output Gross Profit net of wages and debt repayment Y w L r D A Economic Model with Finance A Economic Model with Finance The "Inefficient Markets Hypothesis" • Argument that investors – react slowly to news – over-react – ignore "reversion to the mean" • Series of good reports leads to expectation of more good news • Firm valuation rises, seen as "growth stock" – rise becomes self-fulfilling; bandwaggon buying • Firm cannot sustain above sector/economy performance indefinitely • Initial "bad news" reports ignored as firm "reverts to mean" • Finally, "bear" valuations set in; bandwaggon selling – "growth stock" underperforms in medium term The "Inefficient Markets Hypothesis" • 90% of price variability due to internal dynamics of speculators watching other speculators: – EMH idea of investors focusing solely upon expected risk/return wrong: Instead, speculators watch other speculators The "Fractal Markets Hypothesis" • Puzzle – If EMH is so wrong intellectually, how come it almost seems right in the data? • Solution: a highly chaotic distribution is very hard to distinguish from a truly random distribution • Chaos/Complexity – Deterministic system (no shocks involved) which generates highly complex, aperiodic cycles • Discussed in lecture on dynamics • Applied to finance, the "Fractal Markets Hypothesis" – Apparently random movements of stock market in fact mask a "fractal" dynamic process • so what"s a fractal? The "Fractal Markets Hypothesis" • A pattern produced by a highly nonlinear self-referential process… • Or in English: – Take an initial number • Apply some (possibly simple but) nonlinear transformation to it • Use the resulting number as the next input to be transformed – Resulting time series can appear highly random, but at the same time • is generated by a process with no chance (risk) involved • has an underlying structure, which can however be very hard to discern The "Fractal Markets Hypothesis" • Peters applies fractal analysis to time series generated by asset markets – Dow Jones, S&P 500, interest rate spreads, etc. – finds a "fractal" structure – intellectually consistent with • Inefficient Markets Hypothesis • Financial Instability Hypothesis – Based upon • heterogeneous investors with different expectations, different time horizons – trouble breaks out when all investors suddenly operate on same time horizon with same expectations The "Fractal Markets Hypothesis" • Take a typical day trader who has an investment horizon of five minutes and is currently long in the market. The average five-minute price change in 1992 was -0.000284 per cent [it was a "bear" market], with a standard deviation of 0.05976 per cent. If, for technical reasons, a six standard deviation drop occurred for a five minute horizon, or 0.359 per cent, our day trader could be wiped out if the fall continued. However, an institutional investor–a pension fund, for example–with a weekly trading horizon, would probably consider that drop a buying opportunity because weekly returns over the past ten years have averaged 0.22 per cent with a standard deviation of 2.37 per cent. In addition, the technical drop has not changed the outlook of the weekly trader, who looks at either longer technical or fundamental information. Thus the day trader"s six-sigma [standard deviation] event is a 0.15-sigma event to the weekly trader, or no big deal. The weekly trader steps in, buys, and creates liquidity. This liquidity in turn stabilises the market. (Peters 1994) Conclusion • View of finance depends on whether take equilibrium or dynamic view – equilibrium: • optimum allocation of funds, rational markets – dynamic: • speculative markets, accumulation of debt, possibility of crisis • Current crises difficult, if not impossible, to explain in equilibrium terms – Rapid movements in markets (e.g., sevenfold devaluation of Indonesian rupiah in a week by money markets) can"t be due to similar fall in real productivity of Indonesian economy – Finance and economic outcomes clearly linked (rather than independent as in standard theory) Conclusion: Asian Crisis • Debt-deflation probable cause of Asian crisis – Originating in Japan"s "Bubble Economy" 1987-90 – Huge bad debts carried by banks after crash of real estate market – Boom in Asia partly funded by Japanese/American banks seeking profit after collapse of own markets in 90/91 – Crash in Asia amplified by free capital markets • Currencies devalued on fear of inability to repay loans – Devaluation (4-fold for Thailand, 7-fold for Indonesia) guarantees loans cannot be repaid • Depression ensues – "Solution" must involve repudiation of debt Conclusion: New York New York… • Current US economic boom (now probably over) underwritten by asset price boom – Boom due to • "Euphoric" expectations on Internet • Feedback from rising prices to rising prices • Debt Financing of share purchases – The bust? Complicated by Mutual Funds, but • At 35:1, P:E ratio highest in (non-Depression) history • Broad market in decline now for more than 2 years; boom focused in very narrow range of stocks (as in 1929) • USA debt/output ratio 150% (vs 60% in 1929 [Fisher 1933]) • Inflation on border of deflation (as in 1929)… • one major difference: Big Government – impact discussed in Week 11


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Shares of Elan (ELN) and Pfizer (PFE) were down early Tuesday after Pfizer and partner Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) said they were pulling the plug on a trial treating Alzheimer's disease. Late Monday, the companies announced that drug candidate bapineuzumab was failing to improve cognition and function in subjects vs. the placebo group. This was one of two trials on two somewhat different ...
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Windows 10 Free Upgrade: More details, Windows RT excluded
January 22, 2015 Leave a comment
The Windows 10 site displays a tiny disclaimer giving more details about the upgrade.
It is our intent that most of these devices will qualify, but some hardware/software requirements apply and feature availability may vary by device. Devices must be connected to the internet and have Windows Update enabled. ISP fees may apply. Windows 7 SP1 and Windows 8.1 Update required. Some editions are excluded: Windows 7 Enterprise, Windows 8/8.1 Enterprise, and Windows RT/RT 8.1. Active Software Assurance customers in volume licensing have the benefit to upgrade to Windows 10 Enterprise outside of this offer. We will be sharing more information and additional offer terms in coming months.
This means the following:
- The upgrade will be done via Windows Update
- Windows 8 customers need to *somehow* upgrade to Windows 8.1 ( getting past those store upgrade issues)
- Enterprise versions are excluded. (This is not a problem since most will have a MSDN or volume license)
- The most important Windows RT and Windows RT 8.1 are excluded.
- No Windows 10 free upgrade for Surface RT and Surface 2 customers. (They could buy Windows 10 for ARM, if it is announced)
Source: http://windows.microsoft.com/en-us/windows-10/about (direct link: https://winpreview.catalysis.com/registration.aspx?hfid=WRF0&loc=en-US#disclaimer)
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Printer Smash Preview GeorgiaAnnouncement, Events1 Keep an eye out for the Daily News issue featuring of Philly Tech Week with a cover shot of our Printer Smash. Here's a preview… Thanks for coming Sarah! Share this:EmailTwitterFacebookGooglePocket
under April 22, 2011 at 4:15 pm Log in to Reply Great Photos, Stan! Thanks for posting these Georgia!


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Regulatory Compliance
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Medicare Payment Resources
Ensuring you are properly reimbursed by Medicare can be challenging. CPII has provided a wealth of resources to guide you through the most recent regulations on getting paid by Medicare. Read More
The Stark Law Self-Referral Regulations
The Stark Law is actually actually three separate provisions, and governs physician self-referral for Medicare and Medicaid patients. Here is a list of Stark Guidelines and their ramifications. The Self-Referral Regulations are available only to ACP members and requires a log in. Read the Regulations
It is important to note that there was an exception to this rule regarding the donation of electronic health records items and services. A final rule, approved by CMS in December 2013, extends the expiration date of this exception for an additional eight years to December 31, 2021. You can read more about the exception extension here and the full final rule here.
Avoiding Medicare & Medicaid Fraud & Abuse
The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services has published a comprehensive booklet A Roadmap for New Physicians - Avoiding Medicare and Medicaid Fraud and Abuse. Read the Booklet
Medicare Compliance Action Plan
ACPs Action Plan adheres to the Office of the Inspector General's (OIG) basic adage "Do what's good for business and you'll do what's good for compliance." It provides a systematic process to follow and a record of what you have accomplished. This resource is available only to ACP members and requires a log in. Download the Action Plan
OSHA Bloodborne Pathogens Requirements
The standard's requirements state what employers must do to protect workers who are occupationally exposed to blood or other potentially infectious materials (OPIM), as defined in the standard. Read the OSHA Bulletin
Physician Payment Sunshine Rule - Open Payments
This provision of the Affordable Care Act requires the public reporting by applicable manufacturers and Group Purchasing Organizations (GPO) of defined transfers of value to physicians and teaching hospitals. The Act also requires reporting by applicable manufacturers and GPOs of designated physician ownership and investment interests in their entities. Only applies to manufacturers and GPOs of drugs, devices, biologicals or medical supplies in which payment is available under Medicare, Medicaid or CHIP and, which requires a prescription to be dispensed. While physicians and teaching hospitals have no reporting obligations under this regulation, they do have the right to review and dispute all required information being reported about them by the applicable entity prior to this information being placed on a public website. Learn More
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A final rule was released on February 3, 2013 through the Department of Health and Human Services that provides individuals the right to receive their test reports directly from laboratories. Under this final rule, patients (and their authorized personal representatives) have the right to receive requested laboratory results within 30 days of making a request. This rule pre-empts all corresponding state laws, except those that require greater access (e.g. information needs to be provided in less than 30 days) than indicated in this final rule. Read the full summary of the rule with related FAQs
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Jean Chrest • 2 years ago
Just love this and Denise Williams you are right, it does make you happy just looking at it.
Jean Chrest • 2 years ago
sorry Willis!
Carole Lynn Madison • 2 years ago
Where can I purchase these?
Judi • 2 years ago
I am going to try this in a room with no window. Create a fake window with a cheery landscape poster behind an old window frame and these would be the curtains.
Diane Hayes • 2 years ago
@ Judi Sargent - love your fake window idea! I have an old something ... it looks like a tray because it has handles but it looks like a picture frame ... this would be a good use for something that I don't know what it is but would like to show it off!
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Repurpose your old rhinestone necklaces to make curtain tiebacks for a bohemian-inspired home - XnY DIY Tutorials


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Wendy's Needs a New Recipe to Draw Growth-Hungry Investors
NEW YORK (TheStreet) – Whatever you may think about fast-food giant Wendy's (WEN - Get Report) offerings, its stock has been anything but appetizing.
Shares are currently trading at around $8 per share and are down nearly 7% for the year to date, trailing McDonald's (MCD) and Yum! Brands (YUM), which have lost 4% and 8%, respectively, during the same span.
Outside of Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) there are very few restaurant stocks worth owning these days. Weak same-store sales and declining foot traffic continue to weigh down the sector.
Read More: How Wall Street Tobacco Deals Left States With Billions in Toxic Debt
In the case of Wendy's, which reported earnings earlier Thursday, management is looking for ways to create shareholder value while reducing exposure and risk. During the conference call, Emil Brolick, Wendy's CEO, said the company plans to sell all of its company-owned stores (135 locations) in Canada to franchisees. Brolick sees this as a way to reduce operating expenses and increase the company's cash flow.While it's not yet reflected in the stock price, Brolick has done a good job of getting Wendy's back on its feet. My problem, however, is that Wendy's has been in this perpetual restructuring mode for some time. Despite the stock's year-to-date underperformance, the shares, which are trading at a P/E of 36, are still not cheap. While this matches the valuation of rival Burger King (BKW), Wendy's is trading at a P/E that is 19 points and 9 points higher than McDonald's and Yum!, respectively. I worry investors looking for value may buy too soon. Not to mention, the results of selling its company-owned stores may not be realized as expected. Read More: How Wall Street Tobacco Deals Left States With Billions in Toxic Debt Also, even if Wendy's cash flow and operating expenses do improve as Brolick suggests, there is no guarantee that Wendy's will ever outperform. Consider, both McDonald's and Yum! have had their struggles over the past couple of quarters with declining traffic. There has been no evidence that this traffic has detoured to Wendy's.
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You're a stylish woman with a ridiculous amount of T-Wolves spirit. Get into the game showing off some support for Ricky Rubio and the Timberwolves with this Player tri-blend tee. It features a distressed team name arched across the front with your favorite player's name and jersey number on the back, all with a team logo inlay in between. Who knew that reppin' your T-Wolves could be so sweet?
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Pregnancy is a unique time in a woman's life. Antenatal yoga taught at Islington Yoga addresses the fundamental needs of a woman and her child during this time. Stance work is given to carry the child well during the pregnancy and to develop the strength necessary for delivery. Coordinated movement of the arms and the breathing brings release from neck and shoulder tension often experienced during pregnancy. This also builds the strength in the arms for carrying and nursing the child.
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Classes held on Thursdays from 7.30-8.3pm and some daytime courses are also available. Bookable in blocks of 6 classes. Contact for start dates.
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By Andrew Browne, Malware Labs Director at Lavasoft
As technology and Internet-ready devices continue to become central to our everyday lives, hackers are finding more channels and new ways to gain access to the personal information of unsuspecting targets. From individuals to huge corporations, no one is safe from cybercrime.
The MyStart.com is a browser hijacker once installed on your PC, it will set itself to mystart.com as a browser homepage and Yahoo as a default search engine. You can also find DL Secure extension installed to your browser. The main revenue MyStart.com and other similar websites get from sponsored search results, displayed when you browse the web.
Binkiland is a program that modifies browser homepages to its own. The page offers a general search, bookmarked links as well as adverts about the need to repair your PC, even when that isn't the case.
SnapMyScreen is a firefox toolbar application that claims to enhance a user's web browsing experience while giving you the ability to take screenshots.
Positive Finds is an application that displays coupons and advertisements that are relevant to a user's web browsing activities on shopping sites, such as Amazon.com. While this program may seem useful, it also installs add-ons/plugins that may diminish browser performance as well as generate banners, pop-ups and in-text ads (underlined keywords when visiting websites) and other forms of promotions that encourage you to purchase a product or install other applications.
Data Privacy Day was on January 28 and it was celebrated internationally to recognize the importance of protecting privacy, safeguarding data and enabling trust.
A new report from the Pew Research Center Internet Project has found that the next decade will bring a continued erosion of online privacy, which will mean that "in 2025, everything will be transparent. People will not have the illusion of privacy. …This will, of course, have consequences."
As February 14th draws closer, don't be surprised if several spams and phishing scams find their way into your inbox.
Valentine's Day often offers spammers and scammers alike a golden opportunity to lure people into opening their wallets or giving away their personal information under the deceptive guise of love.
PC Mechanic is an application that claims to be a computer optimization program. It features a scanner that checks your PC for problematic and obsolete files that may be taking up unnecessary space on your hard disk. The catch is that you must purchase the full version before it will fix any of the apparent system errors it located. While this program may seem useful at first glance, so-called 'optimization applications' typically do not meaningfully improve PC performance.
To remove Shopper Pro, download Web Companion now
Shopper-Pro is a Browser Helper Object that is usually categorized as potentially unwanted. It pretends to be very helpful and user-friendly during online shopping, providing you coupons and saving your money. However, it is only a marketing method to make you visit specific sites and increase the number of their visitors.
To remove Ask.com, download Web Companion now
If you have realized that new toolbar installed on your PC and your home page was unexpectedly changed, most likely that some software may have installed in a bundle a 3rd-party browser toolbar on your system. One such annoying toolbar is the Ask toolbar. This toolbar is a BHO: Browser Helper Add-on.
To remove Astromenda, download Web Companion now
Astromenda is an application designed to organize your browser by changing your home page, default search engine, and new tabs to Astromenda, and its goal (as per publisher) is to make "the web more accessible and more efficient, for all users".
Our friends at InfoSec Institute have once again ever so kindly written another great blog post in regards to how to remove Windows Antivirus Adviser. Let's see what Kim Crawley (our guestwriter) have to say about this PUP and the step by step instruction on how to remove it.
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Verizon FiOS page on DSLReports
Six Month Rating
1955 reviews
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148 bad
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Review by
Location: Loudoun, VA
Cost: $72 per month
Install: about
8 days
"Knowledgeable sales rep, great and fast installer, fast speeds,"
"I need to get new computers or at least faster wireless NICs. Noticed some slow down at times but not bad."
"Should have done this long ago, fast speeds and lower cost from what I was paying before."
Pre Sales Information
Install Co-ordination
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(ratings match consensus)
My Other Reviews
Verizon Online DSL
Verizon has been calling/emailing/mailing me almost non-stop since FiOS was available in my neighborhood. I just procrastinated. I had DSL and 2 phone lines.
So finally I decided to switch. First sales rep was OK but I was not ready to act when he called. I asked him to send me an email with all we discussed but he said he could not do that. (2 lines, 15/5 for $85)
I called and this rep was not as nice he wanted to charge me $80 activation when first guy said it was waived. (2 lines, 15/5 for $85 plus activation fee) So i decided to wait for them to call again.
2 days later got a very nice rep and we chatted about what I could get and without me asking she asked me to check my email and I had a quote from her with everything plainly laid out. 2 lines, 50/25 and no fees for install/activation for $85 total. So I said let's do it. This was on the 10th. Scheduled install on the 18th.
I moved some hardscaping out of the way for the fiber install. That was done on the 13th.
I cleared the area for the ONT and BBU and cleared the area for the router. There is a home run coax cable from the ONT location to this room so I pulled the wall plate so he could terminate the end after toning it out.
Installer showed up at about 11:30 on the 18th after calling saying he was coming in an hour. He surveyed the locations and got to work. He was done in about 2 hours. Installed the BBU inside next to an outlet. ONT (I-211M-K) outside in an enclosure. Toned out the coax and terminated both ends. He hooked up the router (MI424WR-GEN3I) and got the internet going. Then he went back out and hooked up both phone lines and tested each one. After he left I set my wireless back up and was connected to work in a matter of minutes.
The install was completely painless and fast. The only issue I had was with the sales reps but it was no big deal. Now I have faster internet and clearer telephone service at a much cheaper price than before (85 vs 148).
Now I just have to learn my new router details and tweak my home PCs a bit. I do need to buy a new home PC. This one is ancient...
4/1/14: Update - Dropped 2nd phone line so price is now down to 72 total with taxes.
10/2014: Update - Now getting 50/50 speeds.
member for 9.9 years, 3063 visits, last login: 6 days ago
updated 133 days ago
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Prep Time: 15 mins
Cook Time: 3 hrs 30 mins
For moist flavorful turkey, rub a savory sage seasoning mixture all over turkey. Also, add water to the roasting pan and loosely cover the turkey with foil for the first hour of roasting.
(amount per serving)
Calories: 530
Total Fat: 26g
Cholesterol: 212mg
Sodium: 557mg
Carbohydrate: 1g
Fiber: 0g
Protein: 73g
Test Kitchen Tip: Place 1 large onion, quartered, and 3 McCormick® Bay Leaves in turkey cavity before roasting. Flavor Variations: Italian Herb Roasted Turkey: Prepare as directed, using 1 teaspoon each McCormick® Basil Leaves, Rosemary Leaves, crushed, and Thyme Leaves in place of the Rubbed Sage. Savory Roasted Turkey: Prepare as directed, using 2 tablespoons McCormick® Poultry Seasoning in place of the Rubbed Sage.
Recipe by McCormick
This recipe features Garlic Powder. Here are a few more delicious ways to use it.
Product by McCormick


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Stanley Cup
Rangers And Kings Set To Begin Stanley Cup Finals
The New York Rangers and Los Angeles Kings will begin the Stanley Cup Finals
It Is A First Round To Savor In The NBA & NHL
There have never been more than five Game 7s in the entirety of an NBA postseason.
Panthers Take On Canucks
Roberto Luongo won the Vezina Trophy twice during his seven-plus seasons with Vancouver and helped the Canucks push the 2011 Stanley Cup finals to seven games.
Krejci Scores 3 For Bruins In 4-1 Win Over Florida
David Krejci scored three goals for the Boston Bruins in a 4-1 win over Florida on Tuesday night, hours after the Panthers made a series of deals to retool their lineup.
Panthers Acquire Goalie Roberto Luongo, Re-Sign Boyes
Business has definitely picked up at the BB&T Center Tuesday afternoon as the Panthers have been burning up the phone lines making trades and re-signing players.
Sports 2013: The Year In Review
No story dominated the local sports landscape like the Dolphins unresolved bullying scandal. Second year player Jonathan Martin left the team after claiming the harrassment he got went way beyond normal hazing in NFL locker rooms.
Bruins Slip Past Panthers For 3-2 Victory
Reilly Smith scored the game-winning goal with 59 seconds left in the third period and the Boston Bruins beat the Florida Panthers 3-2 on Thursday night.
Kings Need To Score More To Beat Blackhawks
After a rare day off for rest and contemplation, the Los Angeles Kings came back focused on what's missing from their run at a second straight Stanley Cup title.
Panthers Whomp Hurricanes, 5-1
Not long after the Florida Panthers paid tribute to their past, Jonathan Huberdeau offered a glimpse of their future.
There's one last order of business to complete before the Florida Panthers can finally get this season started. It comes Saturday night, not long before the puck drops against the Carolina Hurricanes, and it's a moment 12 years in the making.


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$50 Worth of Coupons (Flash Giveaway)
March 14, 2013 By 7 Comments
Just because we love our readers SO much, Everything Mommyhood put together this awesome FLASH giveaway for you!
$50 Worth of FREE Product Coupons
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1 Year of FREE Coupon Inserts Giveaway
December 26, 2012 By 1 Comment
Welcome to the an amazing giveaway! This especially great for those couponers who know how much newspapers cost in order to get more coupon inserts. Newspapers range from $2 to $5!! You're going to be entering a chance to win Inserts for ONE FULL YEAR!!! The winner will receive 10 copies of EACH COUPON Read more [...]
Save Big with Coupons.com
September 1, 2012 By Leave a Comment
These are the new coupons available at Coupons.com! Grab these now to enjoy big savings on your purchases. Couponing has never been this fun and easy. Enjoy your shopping.
Babies & Kids
SAVE $0.75 WHEN YOU BUY ANY (TWO) Read more [...]
Weekend Shopping
July 30, 2012 By 7 Comments
If there is one thing that can take all my stress away, it is definitely shopping! Nothing feels good than visiting my most loved stores and hunt for their best collection. I go crazy whenever I see new dresses and accessories displayed on the racks of my favorite shops. What really excites me is the Read more [...]
Save with Coupons
July 12, 2012 By Leave a Comment
Are you tired of spending too much? Do you want to start saving big? Would you love to stick to your budget every month? If you answer yes to all these questions, then make sure to continue reading this post and take down notes on how you can become a smart saver in an instant.
One of the best ways Read more [...]


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Travel Guide
Ubud, the cultural heart of Bali, lures visitors from all around the world to its enchanting dances, art galleries, ceremonial procession, luxurious spas and divine restaurants. The pace of life in Ubud, set on the dramatic Ayung River, is a sharp contrast to the chaos in the south of the island. Many people spend their days here being pampered in spas, taking yoga classes, relaxing in the town's fantastic cafes and taking the occasional stroll through the surrounding ricefields.
Ubud is a destination where it is possible to chance upon local people participating in ceremonies right on the main road and more frequently in many of the back streets surrounding the town itself. These ceremonies are the real deal and not put on for tourists, although local people are usually comfortable for tourist to look on.
For those not lucky enough chance on an authentic ceremony, it is possible to attend one of the many dance performances that take place nightly in Ubud and the surrounding villages. While these performances are put on especially for tourists, the performers are first rate and it is a great insight into how these performances take place in villages around the island. Shadow puppet shows are also performed at Oka Kartini on Jalan Raya Ubud to small audiences three times per week at 20:00.
Ubud boasts a superb eating scene and many of the best restaurants in Bali are located here. Most are attached to luxury hotels, but others such as Mozaic strike out on their own with stunning success. Further down the ladder of culinary refinement are such popular establishments are Ibu Oka's and Naughty Nuri's where eating with your fingers in less posh surrounds is all part of the experience.
Accommodation in Ubud ranges from simple backpacker digs in family compounds to some of the best luxury hotels in Asia. The diversity of options can be overwhelming and it's often best to set a budget and then look for a hotel that meets it.
Depending on traffic, Ubud is roughly an hour by car from Sanur or Seminyak and a little longer from Kuta near the airport.
Central Ubud is usually defined as the area around the market on Jalan Raya Ubud and the road running perpendicular to it called Money Forest Road. Monkey Forest Road of course runs all the way to the Monkey Forest in the south and then loops back around to merge into Jalan Hanoman, which then runs all the way back to Jalan Raya Ubud. Many people don't venture outside of this loop such is the density of activities to be found within it, but there are delights to be found a short walk away on some of the smaller streets and some of them even lead to seemingly endless ricefields that are the stuff of National Geographic photos.
Internet cafes are located throughout town and free WiFi is provided in many of the better cafes. Convenience stores and ATMs are dotted throughout town with a particular concentration on Jalan Raya Ubud near Starbucks. The Ubud Clinic located 1km west of the Ubud market on Jalan Raya Ubud is available to assist with minor medical complaints although serious issues will need to be referred to Sanglah Hospital in Denpasar.
Related reading
Text and/or map last updated on 30th October, 2013.
Adam gave up a corporate career in 2009 and left Australia for the hustle and bustle of Southeast Asia. He now lives in Indonesia, where as well as writing for Travelfish.org he plays around with www.pergidulu.com.
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Reviews about Ubud
The greenest place I've been yet
By comtam3000, 01 August 2014
Not what you may expect
By edblax, 13 January 2012
Indus restaurant in UBUD
By paulclose, 11 June 2011
All accommodation in Ubud
Tegal Sari
Canderi Homestay
Honeymoon Guesthouse
Cinta Inn
Ubud Lestari Bungalow
Wena Homestay
Sania's House
Dewangga Bungalows
Samhita Garden
Sayan Terrace Resort
Gayatri Bungalows 2
Nyuh Gading
Toko Toko
Roja Homestay
Gusti's Bungalows
Teba House
Villa Saraswati
Tanjung Bungalows
Dewa Bungalows
Sri Ratih Cottages
Gerebig Bungalows
Artja Inn
Agung Cottages
Merthayasa Bungalows
Puri Bayu Guesthouse
Pondok Krishna Guesthouse
The above hotels and guesthouses are the most popular places in Ubud that people are reading about on Travelfish.org.
See our summary page for all places to stay in Ubud
Most popular sights in Ubud
Ubud market
The Yoga Barn
Tirta Empul
Ubud Monkey Forest
Shadow puppet performance
Cooking schools
Goa Gajah
Gunung Kawi
Threads of Life
Dance performance
Yeh Pulu
Sangeh Monkey Forest
Bali Zoo
Rio Helmi Photo Gallery
Agung Rai Museum of Art (ARMA)
Pondok Pekak
Museum Puri Lukisan
Bali Bird Park
Neka Art Museum
The Blanco Renaissance Cultural Museum
The above sights are the most popular sights in Ubud that people are reading about on Travelfish.org.
See all the sights in Ubud
Onward travel
The above are all within 200km of Ubud.
From the wires
Birthdays in Bali
Bali is not an over-touristed hellhole.
Staying safe in Bali
Jimbaran seafood barbecue
Bali airport taxis: A new screw up
A quick jaunt across Komodo and Flores
How to make the most of the Ubud Writers and Readers Festival 2014
Wet season in Bali
Great Bali family getaways
Why go to the Togean Islands?
The Cambodia wire
The Indonesia wire
The Laos wire
The Malaysia wire
The Singapore wire
The Thailand wire
The Vietnam wire
Sites & blogs we like
8 things to do in Ubud
A woodcarving class at the Arma Art Museum
Bali loved to death?
Sacred Monkey Forest in Ubud, Bali.
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Lyrics Depot | |
Lyrics » Tim O'Brien Lyrics » Edge of the Storm Lyrics |
Lyrics Depot is your source of lyrics to Edge of the Storm by Tim O'Brien. Please check back for more Tim O'Brien lyrics. |
Edge of the Storm LyricsArtist: Tim O'BrienAlbum: Rock in My Shoe She said for a rainy day A hundred more from the general store Where she stocked the shelves for pay She'd had enough of those country roads And the wind in the telephone wires Said a prayer for luck, started the truck Checked the mirror and spun the tires Chorus She said there's no such thing as a rainy day And the world is bigger than the milky way If you save it too long you're just throwin' it away She rolls like the thunder She's ridin' to the edge of the storm She had her momma's smile and her daddy's fire Their love burned deep in her soul They were more than glad to give her all they had As they pushed her from the fold The road gets wider mile my mile As she heads east toward the dawn The clouds press down, the lightning sounds Lilly turns those wipers on Chorus The cards come in from Fond Du Lac New Orleans and Chilliwack She said one of these days I'm comin' back But I'm not gonna stay Chorus
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Existing rules may suffice for one-to-one data exchanges, panel says
Doctors and hospitals that want to exchange patient medical data electronically for treatment purposes may not need additional rules for patients' consent providing certain conditions are met, according to recommendations being considered by a federal advisory committee to the Health and Human Services Department.
The Health IT Policy Committee, which advises HHS, reviewed recommendations today from its Privacy and Security Workgroup. The policy committee is advising HHS on implementing the health IT provisions of the economic stimulus law. Under that law, HHS will distribute more than $17 billion to doctors and hospitals who buy and meaningfully use electronic health records systems.
HHS is considering requirements for meaningful use for 2013 and beyond, including rules for protecting patient privacy during health data exchange.
Policies are needed to deal with patient privacy and consent in information exchange, especially with respect to facilitators, or middlemen, the workgroup recommended. Rules should be set for middleman data access, retention and reuse, as well as security requirements.
However, in cases in which a provider exchanges data on a one-to-one basis with another provider — with or without a facilitator — there should be requirements for encryption, limits on what personally identifiable data is contained in the message, and identification an authentication of individuals in the exchange, the workgroup said.
In that scenario, those protections ought to be enough to ensure privacy and consent, without creating additional consent rules, the workgroup added.
"If strong policies are in place and enforced, we don't think that the above scenario needs any additional individual consent beyond what is require by current law," the workgroup said.
About the Author
Alice Lipowicz is a staff writer covering government 2.0, homeland security and other IT policies for Federal Computer Week.
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Meet 100 women and men who are doing great things in federal IT.
Click here for the full list
President Obama's proposal to boost government coordination with the private sector got a warm welcome in the House Homeland Security Committee.
The spy agency wants to better integrate cybersecurity into its traditional human intelligence operations.
Meet the women and men who are doing great things in federal IT.
The law's certification and approval provisions empower CIOs to end outdated software development projects, says Agilex's Roger Baker.
The new chairman of the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee extends an olive branch to the minority, but keeps subpoena power for himself.
FCW investigated efforts by the departments of Defense and Veterans Affairs to improve a joint data repository on military and veteran suicides. Something as impersonal and mundane as incomplete datasets could be exacerbating a national tragedy.
Despite delays, the program is at a critical point for determining the ultimate impact of cloud technology in the government space.
In an interview with FCW, the Department of Veterans Affairs' chief technology officer talks about overhauling the digital experience for VA customers.
The National Information Exchange Model's usefulness extends far beyond its origins in justice and law enforcement.
There is too much confusion and miss-understanding of this HIT-Policy. This is a case of Policy decision that is not fully informed, or it could be that the policy has not been fully explained.http://healthcaresecprivacy.blogspot.com/2010/05/hit-policy-committee-encryption-mandate.html


text: We had such a relaxing stay at marley cottage. In a great location to make the most of all the area had to offer. Amazing walks and countryside combined with a perfect little village all on your doorstep. We also enjoyed a few evenings snuggled up in front of the fire. The cottage itself is beautifully decorated, everything very new,... more


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Sales Resources
In this section, you will find educational brochures and sales presentations to assist you in educating your clients on issues ranging from understanding investment basics to retirement planning.
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Find practice building ideas, educational articles, and product strategy overviews to help to help build your business.
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The most important things to know when shopping for a cell phone.
There are leaks and teases aplenty ahead of Mobile World Congress 2015, while Google Wallet is looking to make a comeback and Pebble's latest smartwatch, Time, is out now on Kickstarter.
Lenovo's 8-inch tablet is coming this summer and gives you Windows 8.1 for just $149.
LG's new entry-level phones, known as the Leon and Joy, make an appearance at MWC 2015.
Google's mobile payment app didn't get support from carriers - until now. As Google Wallet makes a deal with Softcard, we also look ahead to new smartphones and smartwatches expected to debut at Mobile World Congress.
The mobile-payments alliance will allow Google Wallet to come loaded onto Android smartphones at all four US national wireless carriers.
The closure comes amid rocky efforts by tech companies to expand into the financial industry.
Technically Incorrect: The Stratos Card is a new so-called connected card that claims to be a fine solution to wallet overcrowding. But who will pay $95 for it?
Available prepaid for Cricket Wireless, the Grand X from ZTE is an affordable, 5-inch Android handset.
Sharon Profis compares the security, ease of use and availability of some of the most popular mobile payment options.