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A J Maher: "The collapse of the euro - in the sense of a sharp devaluation (particularly against a revived D-Mark) is an outcome devoutly desired by the Latin block."
The eventuality of Germany exiting EZ and reverting back to DM while remainder flock of fatally wounded EZ continue under the France/Italy leadership, as suggested by Maher in this blog, sounds intriguing but too speculative.
-Devaluation is actually neutral for the internal debt and possible lifesaver only after a default on foreign debt.
-Many members of the EZ enterprise have joined because of the strength of German economy. Once Germany is out they will prefer adopting DM perhaps.
-Fatally wounded EZ from Germans exit and remaining heavyweights France and Italy suffering economies (huge public sector) will hardly have any followings, although desperation can make surprises.
-Germany's debt position in lowly Euro will dramatically improve while the crippled EZ foreign debt will dramatically increase.
-The UK foreign debt position in Euro would actually improve and therefore would not be interested in joining.
The imaginary road for the EZ without Germany would be very grim – forget it.
There was nothing grim about life in Italy with our Lira. You can ask any Italian about that.
We were hit badly by inflation from 1973-1990 because of three successive oil shocks. But the inflation performance of the UK was only slightly better than Italy's in those years - and I don't see Southampton or Bristol or York on the brink of collapse today.
The Germans are utterly wrong in their perception that other countries (let's say, among the Original Six) wanted the Euro to obtain "German" strength. We wanted the Euro as a buffer against dollar fluctuations - because the superior position of the dollar vis-a-vis all European currencies permitted the Americans to export their inflation onto Europe.
What we now have is Germany exporting its problems to other countries. It is a bad habit of the Germans to flaunt their strengths and hide their weaknesses, always.
Banks in Italy did not participate in the Greek Festival of Sacking and Pillaging, did not participate in the American Festival of Mortage-backed Sacking and Pillaging and did not participate in the Irish Festival of Real Estate Sacking and Pillaging.
German banks were primary movers behind all three of these crises. Yet, current ECB and EU policy, particularly vis-a-vis Greece, makes Italy pay three times over for German financial sins, while they escape the consequences.
We are in the midst of the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression; the worst energy crisis since 1973 (at least, and perhaps ever); the worst political crisis in Europe since 1945. All this against a background of general comparative decline of the former West vis-a-vis China (and to a lesser extent India). And what are Germans worried about? That Euro inflation might rise to 5% instead of 2.5% and therefore the world will end.
Screw this. German bankers are almost as bad as American bankers. The first to preach to others and the first to be hypocritical and dishonest, even as they sack and pillage other countries and then hide their own problems.
Our former blogger Schadefreude was right (even if he couldn't spell the word).
Italian Unicredit in Germany, the ex-HypoVereinsBank, is the best run large bank in the country - go read the accounts of Commerzbank - and watch what happens when first-half 2012 results are published and they have to tell us how much they have lost on Greece.
Then read about the problems at Deutsche Bank, which among other things has just settled out of court to pay damages of 200 million dollars with the US government for fraud.
"The lira was not the world's oldest currency still in use until the €."
The world's oldest currency is sterling.
I suppose that makes me a "nationlist demogogue" in bot-think.
I am no nationalist myself, and never was Joe, but I can't wait to see this crankish "EU" disappear back up its orifice for the sake of hygiene and peace.
I never cease to be amazed at how "EU" federasts like yourself, Porxit P and Marie-Claude can be so nationalistic.
Hi Birtnick.
The origins of the English pound sterling are not well documented. The origins of the Genoese pound sterling are well documented:
Genoa signed a deal with the King of England (I believe it was with the Lionheart) to establish a trading colony in Southampton in 1190. Genoese merchants even came to dominate English trade with the Low Countries by the 1300's and 1400's.
The Genoese "lira" (Genoese for "pound", "libbra" in Latin) was set at 15 ounces of silver; the English tried to one-up Genoa setting their "pound" at 16 ounces of silver.
So, although there is no precise date for the foundation of the English pound - I think it was clearly taken from Genoese merchants in the 1200's.
'So, although there is no precise date for the foundation of the English pound - I think it was clearly taken from Genoese merchants in the 1200's'.
Pure nonsense. The pound sterling was in use in England even before William the Conqueror. Why don't you look it up? 'Pound Sterling Wikipedia: History' 'the pound sterling is the oldest currency still in use today'.
Your links about the Genoese pound are irrelevant, since Birtnick's
remark was that, once again, 'THE POUND STERLING IS THE OLDEST CURRENCY STILL IN USE TODAY'.
Why do you have problems digesting and handling the simplest statements of fact like the above?
Calm down Crammerboy...
Hmm. That is not the information I had seen (in English) before now. A question for you - was there actually a "pound" minted? The Genoese coins date from 1138. The article says there were "pennies" in circulation, but that a new coinage was introduced in 1158 - twenty years after the introduction of the Genoese Pound.
The Grand return of the Drachma : Burn First the Troy and its Horse....
The insolent pigs are given a choice to swallow the negative growth austerity pill to stay in the union or be forced out into their own dis-orderly limbo much like the hyper-inflation felt by the Latino countries before.
What hyper-inflation? Italy was at 6% before the Euro.
I remind you that the Italian Lira was the world's oldest currency in continuous use - since 1138. It experienced high inflation twice during the 20th century - the three successive oil shocks of 1973, 1978 and 1986, and WWII. And yet, the Lira did not collapse and was not substituted or changed. That was why we had all the zeros.
The German D-Mark collapsed utterly twice during the century and was completely re-established. It's "strength" was a mirage, based largely upon the American military umbrella. As usual, the Germans like to hide their weaknesses.
Your comment is steeped in ressentiment and bias (not to say fascistoid) and seems with a bit of undemocratic attitude like the whole machinery of repression ECB, IMF and the Reich of Financial maîtres. The pigs, the gypsies must be exterminated! We saw the scenario and the scene before...
P.s. Listen and think ,dear friend,what people say...otherwise you will rule without the ruled. Finally, we prefer "the dis-orderly limbo" under the blue sky than the choky pseudo-order in the muddy foggy grave!
"I brought down the house of Atredes"
--- from "Dune".
6% IS very high inflation - it means the value of all assets is cut in half every 12 years.
No surprise Italy never attracted more than a smallish share of international investment when it still had the Lira.
Becoming attractive for international investors was one of the mains reasons motivatig Italy's premature application for the euro.
"The German D-Mark('s) (...) 'strength' was a mirage, based largely upon the American military umbrella. As usual, the Germans like to hide their weaknesses."
What are you even talking about?
The German Deutschmark accounted for 16% of international investment prior to the euro, which made it the second global currency after the US-Dollar.
By comparison, Italy's Lira accounted for about 1% of all currency holdings.
Now, who was "weak" and who wasn't?
Katalathos evales to bottle-rocket sto kolo sou, and now you're daring Greeks to light the fuse, eh? Oh, how I do enjoy a good fireworks show...laughs
Kind regards,
" Europe", Ευρώπη is of Greek origin to start with! As most probably know the name comes from the stunningly beautiful mythical princess Europe ,abducted by Zeus and brought to Crete, (Zeus was disguised as an endearing bull ) , had three sons by Zeus but married Asterion as per Zeus ,s wish. The story is long and colourful in Greek mythology.
Incidentally, the Greek euro coin of 2 euros , has the picture of Europe and Zeus on it. We better collect them as long as they last...
The problem is, that "Europe" exists neither as a cultural nor as a spiritual concept. For a Briton, Scandinavian or Dutchman, North-America and Australia are far closer than the rest of Europe. Spaniards and Italians feel more kinship with Latin-Americans than with non-Latin Europeans. Bulgarians and -still outside the EU- Ukrainians and Serbs are more related with Russians. The Greeks belong to the tiny fraction of the Orient that managed to remain Christian. The only truly European heart consist of France, Belgium, Germany, Switzerland, Poland, the Baltic countries and all countries of the former Austro-Hungarian Empire. But even here the thinking remains national or regional, rather than European. If we want to keep peace on our beloved continent, we better realize this and shape a system of political cooperation and balances accordingly to this age-old and unchangeable reality. "Europe" as it's being presented to us now, with the EURO as its absolute lowest point so far, only exists in the minds of a self-appointed, pseudo-intellectual, quasi-cosmopolitan elite, in order to pursue their own selfish interests, in alliance with big business and the PC-media-mafia. All on expenses of the common people(s) (with and without "s") of the real Europe.
This must mean then that cheating and lying about their financial condition to gain entrance into the Club, then betraying the Club's trust, milking them for all they are worth, then showing them the finger and default on 75% of their debt, generously accepted by all except Wall Street and The City, and to boot it all trying to blackmail the Club for even more money is "Europeanity"?
and you defending this scum tells us all about your sincerity.
Who is this virgin mary "cloned"?
Is it to beat the spam filter?
Shut up! i dont allow you to talk like that about my country!, Germany has entered europe in two world wars,they have commited crimes and genocides against humanity,the rest of the world however showed mercy to you, the allies gave you generous haircuts to your debts and gave you time to rebuild, you owe big to the Greeks, the reparations you never paid are much more than the money Greece owes to you, if you want to see who the real scum is look at your mirror.
We are talking not about three generations ago, when some of us behaved like scum, I will admit but about NOW when some of you behave like scum. We owe you nothing. We paid reparations in the fifties and many times more since. We also did not take your gold. This was sported away by the British to Alexandria and then Durban before we could steal it.
Your elites are scum, the worst scum there is and you better do something about it before they utterly destroy your country's reputation.
Sikko6 no matter how venomous you decide to be, please leave virgin mary out of your comments. Please!
Karamanlis and Papandreou families were also ruling since 3 generations ago, they are the ones who stole your money not me, i was also being lied to, i was a victim too,dont forget that i am the one called to pay for their sins, however they didnt do it alone, it is well documenteed that they were in bed with the German goverment, bribery takes two to happen.
And no you didnt paid in the fifties, i am not talking about the gold, i am talking about the "enforced loan" occupation forces took, i am talking about damages to the roads and farms, i am talking about the slaughter of civilians (see distomo), Greece was only partly paid and as agreed on the Paris treaty the rest of the reparations would come after the reunification of Germany.
I will agree that many polititians are scum, but i will also ask this, why does mr Scauble wants us to vote again for them?, they are the ones who destroyed us why should we let them rule again?.
"to boot it all trying to blackmail the Club for even more money is "Europeanity"?"
Nazis were Europeans too incase you forgot and the Greek's don't even come close to that scum.
"Your elites are scum, the worst scum there is and you better do something about it before they utterly destroy your country's reputation."
You better worry about the elites in your country who don't exaactly have a good reputation either after it became well known in this day & age of the globalized media that Germany sold a bankrupt Greece faulty submarines for 5 billion euros.
It maight be too painful for to ponder what the rest of the world thinks about Germany involving the IMF in eurozone bailouts and pressuring India to contribute while millions live in dire poverty in India. Yup, scum seems to be a good word to describe your elites as well. Exploiting and taking advantage of weak countries to benefit Germany.
Provided Merkel does not blink in her rejection of Eurobonds what is preventing France to pool its bonds with Italy, Spain, Greece and who else wants to join. These countries then guarantee each others debt, as Hollande wants and "the deep injustice of different interest rates" (Hollande O-tone) would be eradicated democratically. This can be achieved without any problem at a stroke. There is no need for Germany to agree. Go, Hollande, go.
Friede, Freude, Eierkuchen.
To the vile Hindu:- Yup, don't blaspheme the Great Mother of God.
Venomous? I made lots of bad comments on Germany. But never heard such word from Gremans. It's because they "at least know" that I am not writing for the purpose of bashing Germany. It show how demofon nix you are. I am different from Sherie and Marie and their clones who normally write things for the purpose of bashing.
Well the fact that you always (I mean all your comments I've seen) endorse stereotypes, negative stereotypes (in particular), always ironic (e.g. "virgin mary") and humiliating against the opposing view (e.g. "nix"), what more proof is there to establish that your intention is to bash and not to argue in a constructive way? If your can't think without stereotypes one good method to deal with it is to rationalize your stereotypes with actual facts. Again if you feel getting into a dialog with particular posters is degrading for you or futile, maybe the best thing is to just ignore them. No intention of playing the model poster which is impossible (being partial as to the subject) and don't want it to be honest.
I doubt if Pumpernickel heard of the G20 meeting in Mexico in February when anger was expressed by nearly everyone present at the outrageous request from 'Europe' for the IMF to bail out Europeans.
If they raised their little eyes above their navels, they'd realise just how much they stink in the eyes of the rest of the world.
The solution is a simple one. Greece must leave the Euro and return back to the drachma, with logistical support from the European Union. After all, being a member nation of the trading block does not necessitate that all member nations must belong to the common currency.
We watched a wonderful program on Mexico last night. Of course, Mexico is part of the Americas, but does not share our dollar. Mexicans have a wonderful culture. Americans like to vacation there. Amongst other considerations, the exchange rate makes it real cost effective for us to take our holidays there.
So, Greece should choose not to participate in the common currency any longer, because through trial and error, it was determined to not be a good fit for the Greek economy.
Now, here are the other so called solutions that I have read, and what I deem to be their glaring weaknesses:
Gifting: Will not help Greece borrow cost effectively again. Therefore, generous thought, but wasted money, and useless for all concerned parties.
Austerity: Saves European tax payers money, but hurts Greek economy. Therefore, wasted money, and real terrible non-solution for the Greek people.
Internal Deflation: No such thing. Prices are most sticky things. Destroy internal markets and they can never recover.
Euro Bonds. Increases Germany's borrowing costs. Therefore, no good for Germany, and will not be implemented.
So, quite simply, once again, Greece returning to the drachma is the only workable solution. Greeks have already sacrificed enough for the failed common currency. Seemed like a good idea at the time, but it has proven itself to be a bad one.
Badepa, badepa, badepa, that's all folks...laughs
Kind regards,
The Greek people are suffering a terrible austerity in order to remain in the Euro, as their leaders told them to do so. Now the Greeks clearly don't want the austerity measures (who would?) but they want to remain in the Euro. The answer to this seemingly unsolvable Gordian knot lies is not in Berlin, Paris, Brussels or Washington, the answer lies in Greek hands: leave the Euro before the Greek State collapses. The Euro or the EU will not collapse but the Greek society may plunge into self-inflicted suffering caused by wanting to remain in the Euro.
Greece shouls leave the Euro and default the private banks. Argentina did that in a very similar self-inflicted collapse, and the country survived. Of course this does not solve long-term Greek problems (as it did not solve Argentina problems), but at least gives time for Greece to start working again, and to sort out what was wrong.
Regards from Rio
to all those 'economists' of saloon and bookworms. Inflation is never a problem except for bond managers, which happen to run the show, one Mr. Gross in plimco, etc. the new rothschilds... That is why inflation MUST not exist (adjusted inflation salaries are a long time norm), so the ultra-wealthy masters of the euro earn their billions on expenses of massive cuts all over the continent for millions of people.
But that ain't teachng you in the books of universities, you learn that PLAYING THE MARKET
What those governments if they were not puppets should do is print money createjobs with it, get inflation and self-buy their bonds as all other central banks do But europe is not a democracy. It is run by plutocrats and the BCE which 'considers itself independent' of the people they rule, and of course totally dependant of the series of goldman and lehman managers it had/has
I am from Spain, my wife is from Germany, my children were born in Ireland and we currently live in the Czech Republic. We consider ourselves a truly European family and at the same time, extremely lucky to live in one of the countries where the Euro is still a foreign currency.
To tell the truth, we are also "a bit" concerned about the future of the old continent and how this crisis is being managed, or rather not managed by our leaders. Our hearts go out to our Greek neighbors who are suffering the most from the mismanagement of this crisis. Because yes, at the end of the day, when we talk about crisis, we tend to forget that we are really taking about people suffering its consequences on a daily basis.
Even my 5 years old son is surprised to hear on the news that Greece might drop out of the Euro!!! Why will the other countries not help them out, daddy? - he would ask. And I will shamelessly make up an answer for lack of a real one. He's at that age, I guess, but I wish he would ask about sex instead. "The Greeks need to comply with the austerity measures imposed on them if they want further help from Europe, I tell him. You see, Greece built up a huge public debt which they could not pay for and because as members of the Eurozone they had lost their ability to issue debt in their own currency, they could not resort to fiscal measures to inject liquidity into their economy and boost it up when needed. The markets panicked and took their money from Greece and put it in Germany leaving Greece with a severe liquidity issue which ultimately resulted in a default of its obligations. Now its own citizens are taking all their money from their Greek banks and putting it on German banks as well (where it is safe) so that basically all the money that used to be in Greece once upon a time is now in Germany which in turn is lending the money back to Greece at an interest and under certain conditions. All the Greeks have to do is comply with these conditions and re-pay the loan + interests but they are not too happy about this, you know? - Can I watch The Smurfs now, dad? Sure you can, love.
I guess this is not the Europe we had in mind when we were first presented with the concept. We can all understand that crisis periods are a part of the deal but citizens expect their leaders to step up on these occasions and take timely corrective actions to…get us out of the mess. Very simplistic reasoning but the truth is that the most alarming thing is that the European leaders appear to be at a loss about what to do to solve the situation. Allowing Greece to exit the Euro would be a disaster for Greece, for Europe and ultimately for the world economy. Greece needs austerity measures to come out of its current situation with or without the Euro and the medium-term benefits it would have from having the drachma back and subjecting it to devaluation would be most likely wiped out by the inflation caused by it. Europe would suffer too from a Greek disorderly exist as they would surely default on the loans they have received so far from the ECB. Further uncertainty about the Euro and the Eurozone would only cause a contagion effect which would brutally distress other already weakened countries in the short term. Clearly, Europe's trading partners would not leave unscathed either.
And as The Smurfs come to an end, my son asks the obvious, "so why are the European leaders not asking for advise if they don't know what to do?" I am tired of making up answers and send him to bed but the question lingers in my mind. Obama has already offered up the services of America's most brilliant minds when it comes down to resolving thorny economic challenges but nobody on this side of the pond seems ready to shake the hand that has been stretched out to them. I appreciate it is easier to have informal EU summits and dinners where nothing is decided and let the river run its course but if this is our leaders' approach to tackling the chaos we are submerged in when millions of European citizens are suffering, then they should invite us all to the next one. Pain is more bearable when the stomach is full. Guten Appetit!
"At the end of the day, when we talk about crisis, we tend to forget that we are really taking about people suffering its consequences on a daily basis."
Thanks for your thoughtful comment, EUcaliptus.
Well, what we need to worry about is whether EU leaders will cook up another grand scheme which will explode in 10 years time.
Europe was doing fine till they hatched up a grand scheme of a common currency before Europe was ready for it.
No doubt another grand scheme is being hatched up somewhere in the ivory towers of the EU.
Do you know EUcaliptus personally?
The reason I ask is several bloggers have commented on the suffering of the Greek people but none of them got a compliment from you.
Because he loves that emotional crap. "All will be well if we love each other" Bla Bla Bla ...
"I am tired of making up answers and send him to bed but the question lingers in my mind. Obama has already offered up the services of America's most brilliant minds when it comes down to resolving thorny economic challenges but nobody on this side of the pond seems ready to shake the hand that has been stretched out to them."
You can't be serious? Obama isn't Jesus and he isn't going to somehow wave his magic wand and make Germany pay Southern European debts, This is a political problem, and Obama despite how much Europeans love him isn't world dictator yet.
Also don't hold your breath If you're expecting the US to bankroll European Fiscal mess.
Yup, probably true.
It was meant ironically of course...I thought it was clear from the tone of the text but was wrong obviously. Thanks for the comment anyway.
I thank you I am in East Africa ans we are already feeling the prices of all commodities go up, may be this is pretext or real but sure EU has broken us totally. I think many Westerners think all are rich and can bask in the sun to have the tan, we have the tan on the tummy as we eat little I thank you Firozali A.Mulla DBA
Big economies try to cooperate with small economies only possible when small economies provide man power to big economies,and Large economies provide the finance then is possible.
Greeks wanted to take advantages from big business like Germany France & Britain(British not in monetary union yet because they like to see if it works and it did not worked)
There is no economy in Greece/Touring Greek islands/a bit of olive oil factories is not an economy,and that's it/who is idea was to include the Greece to Euro must be a mad. Even in this difficult exit possibility still they will not fallow agreements.In order to do that keep having an election.
They are keep blackmailing EU (not consciously,and expecting something big might happen))that they will live/how one can do business with these people.
Greek exit would be a test case & who knows something good might come out.
Dont make me laugh, big economies have their factories in places like Turkey, the basic salary there is 750 tl which is about 300 euros,no one would build a factory in Greece.
It is true that greek polititians used E.U's credit card but they lied to people, the campaign moto of Pasok was "there is money", funny part is that E.U wants greek people to re-elect those who were responsible for the crisis, Papademos was the one who cooked books in order for entrance to E.Z, Venizelos and Samaras are leaders of the parties who did the spending.
Blackmail?, who blackmail's who, E.U officials tell the greek people "vote the ones we want,or else...." all the time.
As for greek economy you are wrong, there are at least 10 trillion euros in gas and petroleum waiting to be exploited in the aegean sea.
Seeing EU leaders backing Samaras and Venizelos being the custodians of the "Corruption List", reminds me of the glorious handshakes of all EU leaders (including our beloved GAP) with tragic Libya's dictator gen. Gaddafy. To me we should be expecting a greater shock to seeing a neo-nazi party in the parliament, and that will be liberal and nationalist voters appearing in Syriza's voting results breakdown. The corrupted regime is counting days in power! Tsipras is obliged to announce the reform plan for the public sector to honor it's global support.
Well,I am laughing together with you but for a different reason.
People will not build factory in Greece because all the Greeks in Australia Canada and America working in factories,because there is no factories in Greece, the ones left behind exploited by cunning politicians.
Petroleum in Aegean sea,u newer wonder why still nobody try to venture to dig in for a Gas? Probably you are an ignorant the fact that how is disputed is the Aegean sea/& many times they nearly gone to war because of this dispute.
Basic salary 300 Euros? Maybe that is kebab take away price.
Get a life and go visit Turkey/
I guess what you say that maybe Turkish economy did not effected by 2008 credit crunch because it was an accident?
Why don't you go help them financially Mr Arcadanalanian.
Keep laughing buddy,anyway since your english are not good enough i will keep it as simple as possible.
I have in fact visited Turkey, i have been to Cecme ,Izmir,Istanbul, i have also seen how "mountain turks" as you call the Kurds, so that there wont be a "minority problem", live, the average wage in turkey IS 300 euros, in some places however people live with as little as 70 euros a month, only the cities along the coasts are ritch.
The turkish economy did not got affected because turkey had declared bankruptcy during the 90's and was under recovery with the help of the Imf, and dont forget, Greece has oil in areas that Turkey has no legal claim at all, such as, South of Crete and the ionian.
And why in Hell sould i want to help the troublemakers of the east?,tell me mr cizilalanian.
Turkey economy declared bankrupt at 90ties?
Which planet you come from? Maybe Planet Ermenistan been ruled by Kazim Karabekir? Should we say obliterated by him/And Kurds next,I guess still hurts,even you? There there/how pity-full.
You seen the Mountain Turks? Well,even MIT(Turkish Secret service not able to seen them most of the time)
If Turkey has no claim on oil & gas why would Greece would not drill or use other countries like Israel to do the job like Near North Cyprus? they end up bankrupted and beggars.
Still, they don't drill as you claim that there is an oil,
I understand that you do not have a country/you just belong to Arkadanalanianistan.
Good luck to you Mr.Arkadan-alan-ian/
Yes keep leaving in denial, you know during the 90's i was leaving in the island of Chios, when i decided to go on a trip to Cesme i had to exchange currency in order to take the ferry, they gave me a bucket of cash for a few thousands of drachmas, even now the ration is ridicilous 2,5 tl for one dollar.
Learn to read, i told that you call the kurds mountain turks because there is still a minority issue.
Also learn proper english, "AN oil ?"hahahaha OMG.
I understand that you are an idiot, thousands of years of marrying your cousins and donkeys do that to you, but what to expect from one who has to endure the fact that his parents might as well be cousins,hahahahaha.
Good luck to you too may allah be with you,you will need him.
Obviously Kazim Karabekir did left some idiots behind/
I guess as a Armenian Greek you need to kiss Greeks asses every morning to let you stay in Greece.
Italian Lira/remember? You are living in the past/ Karabekir is dead/Italians in the EURO/
And you keep visiting Cesme as we say" Dogs will keep coming back where they been constantly treated badly"
Surely there will be some scars left with treatment of KARABEKIR/keep responding I am your social worker I have a social obligation to hear you/I understand/it must be unbearable your past/those bad Turks although they were defending invasion by Enemy & local Armenian's and Greeks were collaborating with enemy still its like a open wounds.
I hope you will not end up a social problem/
Put it behind/
Pff what an idot, who told you that i am armenian?, i dont have anything to do with armenia.
The only reason i did visit your country is because you are CHEAP.
Interesting saying, we have one also,"What the fox cant get,she makes fun of it".
Really?,you are my social worker?,you cant even write proper eglish my dear boy and you say you have a degree in psycology?,
anyway i dont have to spent my time with you, my people have another saying, it goes "you can try to make a clever guy to change his mind,but trying it with an an idiot is hopeless" .
I hope you solve your social problem too.
have a nice day.
I wonder if the Greeks could be induced to stay with this treatment: http://youtu.be/KqVNv-rzxcA
"Yes, we remember. These were the troops were the font line broke at Stalingrad. Many Thanks. Still does not improve my faith in Italy."
Guilty as charged. Thank you for confirming my thesis that this crisis is not really about Greece, Portugal or Ireland. It is about Germany still holding it against Italy for provoking their military defeat in WWII.
Two comments about Stalingrad - the short response and the longer one:
Short- Thank God we did provoke the defeat of Nazi Germany. Did you know that Palmiro Togliatti, who later led the Communist Party to 25%-30% of the vote in Italy, was resident in Moscow after 1926 as Vice Secretary of the Comintern? Togliatti himself probably urged the Soviets to attack the war-weary Italian troops.
Longer answer -
By 1936 Benito's regime was wildly unpopular. A fruitless and expensive war in Ethiopia had only provoked economic sanctions in the middle of the Great Depression. When war came in 1940, Italians entered knowing they had already lost. Our large air force, built up in the early 30's, had been strong enough to block Germany in Austria in 1934, but by 1940 was filled with outdated planes. Within one year, entire armies of hundreds of thousands of troops were lost in eastern Africa, Greece and Egypt.
At that point, to maintain face with Hitler, Benito sent 250,000 ill-equipped troops into Russia. What in the world could have been expected of these troops?
A story for you: When I studied in Poland in the 80's, I met several former veterans of the Home Army - the Warsaw Uprising and even one veteran of the Jewish Ghetto Uprising. Both rebellions were fought mostly with Italian arms, including FIAT submachine-guns. The Polish Underground had obtained these weapons from deserting Italian soldiers on their way to the front in Russia - selling their weapons for money and assistance to get back home.
If Germans were more objective, they might notice that Italy already has a deficit below 2% this year. We do not need assistance; we need stable Euro-markets. A Greek default can only and utterly destabilise Euro-markets. Idiots.
Greece, Ireland and Portugal need help - a bit of real, gifted money - not Spain or Italy.
Let me get this straight, Sycorax is whining that Germany couldn't use Italian troops as cannon fodder to serve Germany's unbridled greed for lebensraum & the resources of the soviet Union.
Whining that Italian troops didn't do the job to satisfy Germany's greed for stealing other people's land and resources. Amazing!
It was not the Soviet Union that attacked Germany, it was Germany that attacked the Soviet Union. Sycorax seems to have forgotten who the agressor was.
Germans can never admit to weakness and have no respect for the underdog.
So they are always driven to find scapegoats, rather than admit their own theories were wrong.
Germans don't lose battles and don't lose wars - it's not tolerated.
Believe me, if I write some things that sound off the wall - it is not me, it is reality that is off the wall. This is the real problem with Euro-crisis:
At every step, Germany has prevented anyone from spending a bit of real money to fix the crisis in Greece - with a whole slew of pretexts (some legitimate, let's say). And why? Because Greece is too corrupt and incompetent.
Yes, and?
Greece was not too corrupt and incompetent during its 30 years in the EEC/EC and EU, was not too corrupt for 12 years of the Euro and was not too corrupt when they were buying 15% of German military exports - so that story rings hollow.
Then we get to the real reason:
"If we gift 3 billion to Greece today, we will have to gift 300 billion to Italy tomorrow".
Why? Italy is neither bankrupt nor insolvent and our deficit is on track for 1.8% this year.
But, they have never really forgiven us for "losing the war" for them. (And we have never forgiven them for making us accomplices-by-association with the Holocaust).
"If we gift 3 billion to Greece today, we will have to gift 300 billion to Italy tomorrow".
"Why? Italy is neither bankrupt nor insolvent and our deficit is on track for 1.8% this year".
Really? ahahahaha (I'm italian)
Are you insane? What are you suggesting, that Italy should ask for help?
No help can be asked for and none can be given.
We are one of the largest economies in the world, despite all the propaganda of the Vatican and the other Great Powers to make us seem a small country. We are the world's third-largest debtor. God Himself does not have enough money to rescue Italy. Only Italians can do that, with our own aggregate €8.6 trillion of private savings.
I consider any defeatism (disfattismo) expressed within Italy as an attempt to justify the Golden Pensions - those between €3000 and €90,000 monthly that are costing Italy its future. The 16.6% of gdp currently being spent on pensions is wholly unsustainable. The next most generous country in the world, Austria, spends only 12% of gdp on pensions.
Euro-bonds are the wrong idea. They are being pushed by Monti, who receives a monthly pension of €70,000, to avoid cutting the expenses that must be cut.
I am in my mid-40's. I am fed up with paying excessive taxes to support excessive pensions that I will never see, given that current trends mean I will be lucky to have a minimum social pension of €500 after 2030.
To keep Greece in the eurozone might be in the interests of risk investors. That's why this mag, as a speaking trumpet for the investment world, is currently creating an insane 'artificial panic' over the possibility of a Greek exist.
However, realistically viewed, it would be a lot better for Europe's taxpayers in the long run and for the Greek people if the 'divorce' would come quickly.
Since Greece can only survive within the euro with a grueling downward adjustment of wages and prices, which demands ever more austerity, the hatred will be increasingly channeled against the hands that feed, here especially against the largest backer of Greece, Germany. . . . speaking of "biting the hand that feeds you". On an almost daily basis Greek papers picture their - by far - biggest donor, the German people and Germany's political leaders, as the reincarnation of the Nazi empire.
Now the German public is simply fed up as I can see on German TV (I'm currently in Germany) and what 'my antennas' tell me when speaking to German friends and people I know. A vast majority of 70% of the German populace doesn't want to continue throwing good money after bad in Greece.
In every talk show and round table debates it becomes very obvious that nobody in Germany trusts that Greeks can do the painful budget cuts and structural reforms, which are indeed not familiar concepts in Greek politics, that would be needed to continue the use of the Euro.
Why, everybody asks in Germany, should the Greek people feel tortured by the Germans if a Greek exits would lessen the pains – for the German taxpayers and for the majority of the Greeks.
Merkel, by ruling out Eurobonds as illegal under current EU law, she pointed only to one impediment of many, which makes the 'United Debt of Europe' impossible.
The even bigger obstacle lies in the fact that the issuing of Eurobonds, if including Germany, would require grave changes to the German constitution and around 10 separate legal changes that would need a two-third majority in order to pass the German Bundestag.
. . . There is absolutely no chance for this, considering the adverse mood of the Germans, up to the point that a majority of the polled don't even want to vacation anymore in Greece for that very reason.
That the decisions were postponed during the meeting on Wednesday to discuss the troubles of the euro zone until the end of next month (after French and Greek parliamentary elections on 17 June) shows quite clearly that this time Germany will not back down again, since Merkel more than ever needs consent with her voters if she wants to win the September 2013 federal elections.
For Mr. Hollande, the only alternative to his quandary would be trying to form a 'joint debt alliance' without Germany at its helm, a recommendation for a 'way-out' more and more pundits are making currently public in Germany.
Maybe other commenters here can tell us their opinion about this solution.
La V,
to stop Eurobonds to avoid debt-mutualisation - too late! (EZB, Target, EFSF, ESM).
"Francbond" without Germany - will not work - they need the (still) strong AAA backing of Germany. (low interest rates will not induce structural reform - see 1999 - 2008).
The whole debate is missing the point - it is about transfer of resources from the core to the periphery for the latter to indulge without working so hard.
La vy,
You do have a bright future as an ambulance chasing schister attorney.
La V.,
I agree that
1.) Both the German political elite and the German public at large will not tolerate eurobonds. For what it's worth I also agree that they are right not to accept so unlimited and open ended a liability.
2.) This is not a solution that can be imposed on Germany at the European Council via QMV. Germany retains an absolute veto in this area.
But this crisis is now accelerating very fast.
The Latin block will soon focus its attention on the ECB (Monti has been quietly pointing in this direction for some time). Here the Bundesbank and her allies can certainly be outvoted and unlimited purchases of Latin bonds can and will be authorised even over the screamed objections of the Bundesbank.
At that point Germany will have to acknowledge that she must either leave the euro or pay a high price for continued membership in the form of unlimited monetary expansion/ stimulus and domestic inflation.
If the euro is going to witness a departure then the Latin block has an overwhelming interest in ensuring that the departing member is Germany - not Greece...
Maher, how are you?
Of course, you DO realize if Germany were nicely asked to leave by the others and then, let' assume, actually left, the Euro would collapse. No need to go into detail here so why do you bring up such an unrealistic scenario?
Austria, Finland, Netherlands would also leave, because they certainly could not replace Germany as the givers of goodies to keep the Greeks alive. It would then be up to France and Italy to do this.
Any idea how this could be brought about, Maher.
The French, I know, will be grateful for any constructive ideas you might provide here.
PS: I like you much better than "crammerboy" ;-)
Hope you are enjoying the hot weather in Germany :-)
You've said it all. I only would dispute your saying that Germans will no longer visit Greece. Usually Germans, if they are Greece aficionados, will have a favourite place where they go in Greece and will come back to the same vicinity where they will have established bonds with the mostly family run hotels or accommodations since long before the crisis struck. They and their hosts may ignore what politicians and the press is saying and rather trust their instincts. Germans are creatures of habit and not so easily side tracked by politics. This, at least, is my experience.
The only reason they may decide not to go is when travel becomes unreliable or erratic due to strikes. On a personal level, no problems, I think,
I reckon perhaps 10% - 20% will be affected by the media but they would not be the long time Greek travelers. Person to person experience also with Greeks in Germany is also quite good.
While Greeks may be incensed and excitable in places like Athens I do not believe that greatly affects the main holiday destinations on the islands.
Greetings Pumper,
All well this side. I trust your curling tongs ply prosperously?
The collapse of the euro - in the sense of a sharp devaluation (particularly against a revived D-Mark) is an outcome devoutly desired by the Latin block.
This will reduce the dollar value of their debt as well as terminate the slow haemorrhage of trade deficits (particularly with Germany). They will monetise to their hearts content and thereby provide themselves with two strong stimuli for growth.
German "goodies" are not needed for their recovery. Germany's great contribution will be an absence - an absence of boneheaded pro cyclical fiscal tightening, an absence of boneheaded monetary tightening and above all the absence of German imports.
Think how much better they will all get along without Germany.....
Yes, Maher ...
but who ... WHO ... would want to be in a Latin Euro zone, heavily devalued, when the borrowing costs will be in the 10%+ zone, as in the bad old times for the GIPS? How will they service their existing debts in Euro? Default, like the Greeks?
Where I do see an opportunity is as sub suppliers of components for Germany, as already happens but much much cheaper making German cars, trains, machines and what have you even more competitive, no matter how high the DM.
Give us your take how such a scenario would affect the City, please, so that LV and Yosh and Pedro, especially Pedro, who must be tickled pink with delight that you are posting, can put their fangs into you :-)
They will monetise their debt - or at least a substantial portion of it.
It will be inflation that poses the real medium term risk (in the short term this will be beneficial as they are now in a deflationary position).
For her part Germany will certainly need to accelerate her domestically generated share of GDP since the returns on her export dependence were poor even in the good times and will be negative after her captive market finally makes good its escape. This will provide her with more economic self sufficiency.
The City will continue to ply its trade to any and to all. It wasn't destroyed by the advent of the euro (as so many europhile scaremongers predicted) and it will flourish in a post euro......
Over to you LV, Josh, Pedro ...
I have done my Picador bit. Pedro will put in the Banderillas with a little dance and then LV and Josh will compete for the tail and the ears of the Miura ... pardon ... Maher bull.
And I shall open an ice cold bear and enjoy the Corrida :-)
Maher - you have a recommend from me. 100% accurate comment.
Who said anything about heavily devalued? Italy alone has €120 billion in gold and almost €40 billion in other reserve currency on deposit at the BCE. France and Italy have enough reserves to manage a moderate devaluation of 10%-15%, with inflation of 4%-5% instead of 0-2%.
Just enough to stop this ridiculous speculation against our bonds on the international market.
Latest news: as foreign investors are slowly leaving the Italian bond market, domestic sources now own 68% of our debt.
Next stop: 90%.
"Yes, Maher ...
but who ... WHO ... would want to be in a Latin Euro zone, heavily devalued, when the borrowing costs will be in the 10%+ zone, as in the bad old times for the GIPS? How will they service their existing debts in Euro? Default, like the Greeks?"
The ECB should have been located in Paris, right from the beginning. France has managed monetary affairs for 80 million Africans for decades - to the general satisfaction of the elites in those countries.
Germany can't cooperate enough with outsiders to keep even the Netherlands or Austria on their side. If the Finns really want to share a currency with Germany alone, that's their business. I suspect they would prefer to have their own currency back, in a Euro-less world.
"I have done my Picador bit".
What I, Pumpernickel, really mean by this is that I've never been able to match Maher in a discussion, so as usual I'm leaving others to do it for me.
"Pedro will put in the Banderillas with a little dance...."
What I really mean by this is that Pedro will tell Maher to 'go and chew on a shoe', accuse him of despising Portugal and write what he thinks passes for a 'poem'.
I will then give Pedro a recommend.
"then LV and Josh will compete for the tail and the ears of the Miura......"
What I really mean by this is that La V will write a page full of incomprehensible, unverifiable stats which people will abandon half way through reading.
However, I will give him a recommend, though I will have understood nothing. Josh says he doesn't read Maher's postings, so I may not be able to count on him there.
"And I shall open an ice cold bear and enjoy the Corrida".
What I mean by this is that my role here is now one of passive spectator, having long given up any pretence at intelligent discussion. I am now a mere *featherweight*, an EU *slogan churn* with no two thoughts to rub together.
Germany is not alone. You forgot Holland, Austria, Finland, Poland etc.
Rubbish. The Poles will never join a currency union that is mostly just them and Germany.
The Netherlands have just lost a government over a fairly moderate austerity plan, and can no longer be counted upon to support German rigidity.
Austria has never been a big fan of German (mis-)management, having lost their empire over German ambitions and rigidity.
There is a reason why Austria has already elected a secretary general at the UN and Germany will never have one. Vienna understands diplomacy and working together with other countries.
The Germans understand only pig-headed rigidity. They are far more isolated than they think they are.
What Germany expresses during this crisis is not strength, not leadership and not competence. They express a VETO. On any possible solution.
We, the older and richer nations of the Original Six, are not going to exit this crisis without coughing up some gifted cash - to Greece, and perhaps also to Ireland and Portugal - yet Germany starts from the position of "don't look to us for a penny."
Then why the fuck (excuse me) do we have a common EU budget in Brussels? Italy makes net contributions of 6 billion annually to Brussels. Should we adopt the same stance as Germany and say, "We want our money back"?
Please let us know, because backroom negotiations have already begun for the 2014-2020 budgets. So far, Rome is not demanding to pay less money. Perhaps we need to change our stance. Why should we be financing factories in Central Europe that are only taking jobs away from Italians...?
Joe/Milovan, buddy,
it's always a pleasure to read your rants, if entirely for the wrong reasons. LOL
Your statements regarding the Netherlands and Austria don't pass the reality test, though:
NEITHER the Netherlands nor Austria have any intention of dissociation themselves from "austerity".
All major political parties in THE NETHERLANDS have declared that budget goals will be met and the necessary cuts be made - they just disagreed on where to apply the cuts, and the minority government of PM Rutte was taken hostage by the populist PVV of Geert de Wilders, on whose support it depends. Big deal. They'll manage.
AUSTRIA: The Austrian government is probably the most outspoken when it comes to the euro crisis - and is one of the pillars of the fiscal conservatives in the euro zone. The only reason Austrian bonds were downgraded to AA+ from AAA last year was the country's exposure to Italy, btw.
Both the Netherlands and Austria have always pursued economic and fiscal policies that were nearly completely in sync with (West) Germany, and the three countries had a de facto currency unit prior to the introduction of the euro. That hasn't changed, and it won't change - the economies of the three are too closely intertwined, the German/ Austrian/ Dutch economic and fiscal policies have always been nearly indistinguishable, and the menatlities are simply nearly identical.
As for POLAND:
It will join the euro, says its govermnent. But Poland has learned from the failed examples of Southern European EU member states, as PM Tusk keeps emphasizing, which rushed headlong into the common currency when they weren't ready for it, and now pay the price for their lack of preparation. Poland will join when it is ready on substance, and the scheduled date is now 2017.
In Tuesday's "Gazeta wyborcza", there was an interesting roundup of the Southern Europe troublechilds, and the segment on Italy bore the title "kraj stagnacji" - the "land of stagnation", describing which reforms Italy failed to carry out over the past 20 years.
Poles will do all they can to avoid replicating Southern Europe's mistakes.
Zerohedge: "The last time we looked at the Greek tourism industry or what's left of it, ironically so very reliant on German tourists, we observed that receipts from this very critical to Greek tax receipts industry would likely drop to under €10 billion - a big hit to government revenues just when they are most needed. Needless to say, ongoing political chaos, a rise in anti-German sentiment, and a resurgent neo-nazi political power are not helping things. Sure enough Ekathimerini reports that German bookings continue to be in free fall: "German bookings for holidays in Greece have slumped by almost a third so far this year, a German Sunday paper quoted a Thomas Cook executive as saying. "By the beginning of the Summer season, booking numbers for holiday in Greece in the German travel industry have been 30 percent below the year-earlier figures," Euro am Sonntag cited the head of tourism at Thomas Cook's German unit, Michael Tenzer as saying in an excerpt of an article made available to Reuters on Saturday."
And, adjustment happens already:
"ATHENS – With early projections for bookings showing as much as a 50 percent drop, Greek hoteliers are preparing themselves for as much as a 10 percent decline in business this year as the country struggles to right itself from a calamitous economic and political crisis. Greece is adrift without a government in place for the time being as May 6 elections failed to give any party a mandate and there have been repeated failures to form a coalition to run the government . . . That uncertainty is making tourists wary of visiting Greece, especially as key rivals from Turkey to North Africa are siphoning away visitors by offering cheaper prices and better service. With Greece's image being battered, the national tourism campaign in disarray, and frequent photos and videos of protests and riots being shot around the world, the country is being seen less and less as a favorable place to vacation.
Declines in bookings are being reported in Greece's traditional tourist markets, such as Germany, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and Belgium, but demand is reported higher from other Balkan countries, Russia, Ukraine, Israel and Turkey. In response, more Greek hotel operators are lowering prices, even for luxury resorts, in an attempt to attract skeptical visitors fearful of the crisis and as fears grow that Greece could give up the euro and return to the ancient drachma it abandoned 12 years ago." (end quote).
Mary Claudius went under the Terror condamnation to guillotine too
Since we are heading into a long weekend (huh?), I will make an exception from my rule not to waste my time on your pretentious pseudo-economic reasoning. (It's your lucky day.)
See my next post below for more.
As usual, you get it wrong.
1) Since all euro zone countries have issued their debt in euro, "the dollar value of their debt" is irrelevant. If the "latin" countries (I suppose that is everything south of Belgium) left the euro zone, their existing debt would still be in euro, and their debt-to-gdp ratios would shoot up by as much as their new currencies would devalue vis-a-vis the euro.
2) Furthermore, all of the "latin" countries except France have large debts to the German Bundesbank via the ECB's target 2 mechanism (grand total: nearly 700 billion euro). If they left the euro, this figure - which is now a mere accounting position not included in the debtor countries' national debt figure - would become actual debt.
Both effects would lead to the immediate bankruptcy of all "latin" euro zone countries (again, safe France).
There are only a few countries which could exit the euro without facing default, and Italy, Spain, Portgual an Greece do not figure among them. Germany does. As do the Netherlands, Austria, and a handful of others.
@ Josh: "Since we are heading into a long weekend (huh?), I will make an exception from my rule not to waste my time on your pretentious pseudo-economic reasoning. (It's your lucky day.)"
Your mother no doubt means well when she extends your internet privileges for the long weekend but she needs to consider the negative externalities your delusions of adequacy impose on others.....
@Josh: "If the "latin" countries (I suppose that is everything south of Belgium) left the euro zone, their existing debt would still be in euro,"
I might have "got it wrong" had I proposed that the Latin block exit the euro. You are the only responder not to have noticed that my proposal, as clearly written, was for Germany to leave the euro.
Your responses to others can only improve once they address the actual points that others actually make rather than whatever stuff just happens to pop into your head.
@ Josh: "Furthermore, all of the "latin" countries except France have large debts to the German Bundesbank via the ECB's target 2 mechanism (grand total: nearly 700 billion euro). If they left the euro, this figure - which is now a mere accounting position not included in the debtor countries' national debt figure - would become actual debt."
Once again my proposal was for Germany to leave not the Latin block.
However your stated view that the target 2 obligations held by the Bundesbank will be honoured as debt by the Latin block is so staggering in its sheer naivety that it certainly merits a response.
I fear that your naivety is widely shared in Germany which is why Germans are so cavalier about the costs of euro break up under a Grexit or Germxit or any scenario.
The counterpart of all those trade exports to the euro area were the capital exports from Germany (necessary to fund them). A net exporter of goods is always a net exporter of capital.
In 2010 German banks had a 700 billion euro exposure to the rest of the euro area. Since the financial crunch they have reduced this exposure to 360 billion euro. The result of this catastrophic withdrawal of funding (not just from Germany) has been the bail outs and the exponential rise in the Bundesbanks target 2 "assets" (700 billion and rising). In effect the hole made by the sudden departure of international funding can be measured by the dramatic growth of the target 2 imbalances.
So there is now an elegant (and inevitable) symmetry between the scale of the former trade imbalances and the rapid escalation of capital imbalances within the official euro system.
This is the scale of the demerger cost that Germany will have to pay whether she leaves the euro or others do so.
Interestingly Germany stands more chance of at least a partial redemption on these "assets" if she negotiates her own departure rather than forcing the departure of others or just allowing the system to collapse by default (her current position).
Under such a scenario Germany's "haircut" might be limited to the exchange rate devaluation of these devalued euro "assets" which could be limited to just 30% if the real exchange rate differentials were to be precisely reflected in the rump euro price (vs. a revived D-Mark). Sadly some currency overshoot is very likely given the chronic condition that German promoted austerity has reduced these economies to.
Let me add to Maher's comment, just to refute you, that with €150 billion in reserves at the ECB, Italy is not in danger of default exiting the Euro. It would be neither necessary nor obligatory for us to accept a 30% devaluation. Some 10-15% would be enough.
Also, you ignore the fact that domestic holdings of our own debt is rising steadily - after having dropped (briefly) to as low as 50% last year, it now stands at 68% and is rising steadily. If our bonds drop on the secondary market (unsupported by the ECB or the IMF - both of which operations I would oppose), it would be that much easier for Italian private and public financial institutions to buy up our outstanding debt. In any case, this figure is rising steadily.
As the percentage rises, the interest is paid within our economy. Japan has 220% debt-to-gdp, but nobody seems to think they are in imminent danger of collapse. As the domestically-held portion increases, it would become less traumatic for us to leave the Euro.
The key figure is not debt-to-gdp. Slovenia has 44% debts, but now pays higher yields than Italy. The key figure is percentage of foreign financing of borrowing needs - around 25% for the PIG countries.
"All major political parties in THE NETHERLANDS have declared that budget goals will be met and the necessary cuts be made - they just disagreed on where to apply the cuts, and the minority government of PM Rutte was taken hostage by the populist PVV of Geert de Wilders, on whose support it depends. Big deal. They'll manage."
Surprise, surprise Josh. Neither are the protestors in Greece against "austerity". Everyone is against austerity "in my backyard" instead of "for the other, richer person". Does it seem such a small thing to you that the Dutch parliament cannot agree on whom the axe should fall?
Also, Austria was not downgraded because of exposure to Italy. Exposure to Hungary is their weak point (and to a lesser extent to Slovenia and Croatia - the former country is already part of the PIIGSS).
It's a bit funny when you as an Italian - and hence a citizen of a country which has had 50+ governments since WW2 - points the finger at another country when its government looses its parliamentary majority because it's taken hostage by a radical party supporting it. This was nothing more but a bump in the road. 80% of Dutch MPs agree the deficit goals must be met and will produce a sufficient majority for a budget.
I suggest you read S&P's justification for the downgrade of Austria, for which the country's exposure to near-insolvent Italy was explicitly mentioned as a main reason. Fundamentally, Austria is as fiscally conservative as Germany.
And yet, and despite a disastrous premiership under Berlusconi, our deficit was no higher than Holland's in 2010, below theirs in 2011 and will be much lower than theirs this year.
Not bad for an insolvent country, eh?
Nor is our gdp growth/contraction any worse than the Netherlands'.
I am happy you have changed your label of Italy from insolvent to near-insolvent. Apparently I am making progress with you.
your whole dreamed-up scenario fails to pass the reality test, as Germany has neither an interest in leaving the euro nor any intention to do so.
Furthermore, if a country that is indebted to the German Bundesbank via the ECB's target 2 mechanism left the euro, and then chose not to settle its dues, such a refusal would immediately be considered a default scenario.
Again, for the target 2 debtor countries (Greece, Portugal, Spain, Italy) there is no exit scenario that would not trigger their immediate insolvency.
And on that note I leave you to your new buddy, Joeyboy.
@Josh: "your whole dreamed-up scenario fails to pass the reality test, as Germany has neither an interest in leaving the euro nor any intention to do so."
After all these months and years in which your confident certainties have all dissolved into the inevitable mush that awaits all such shop worn conventional wisdom - and you still haven't even the smallest glimmering of real insight or original thought.
Germany's interests and those of the rest of the euro area will eventually converge in ways you cannot conceive and this will surprise you just as every other development in this sorry saga has surprised you.
Time for bed Joshy boy - not much point in you being awake......
EARLIER you told us a split-up of the euro zone was in the interest of some of its members.
NOW you are telling us the interests of those same members "will eventually converge in ways [we] cannot conceive".
Inconsistency always indicates that somebody is not exactly mastering the subject debated.
But yes, I agree with your last statement - interests of most euro zone members will eventually converge; but it's a bumpy road to that destination, as some have joined the common currency when they were clearly not ready for it (and aren't now): Greece, Portugal, Spain and Italy. (Ireland's diificulties are not euro-related.)
@ Josh : "EARLIER you told us a split-up of the euro zone was in the interest of some of its members. NOW you are telling us the interests of those same members "will eventually converge in ways [we] cannot conceive". Inconsistency always indicates that somebody is not exactly mastering the subject debated."
Well where there's no sense there's no feeling I suppose. Their interests may also converge around a separation Josh. Divorce as a mutually agreed solution.
No contradiction - no inconsistency.
Obviously this hasn't occurred to you (surprise!) but once the German bull is coaxed out of Europe china shop things will proceed much more constructively.
"Well where there's no sense there's no feeling I suppose. Their interests may also converge around a separation Josh."
That's evasive nonsense in clear contradiction to what you've argued earlier.
But I'm wasting my time with you anyhow. -
Congratulations, though, to finally coming around to realizing that "A net exporter of goods is always a net exporter of capital". I told you so about a year ago, and you wouldn't want to believe it then.
That principle is also the reason why in notorious trade deficit countries such as the UK, ever more assets are foreign owned. Simple, eh?
"Well where there's no sense there's no feeling I suppose. Their interests may also converge around a separation Josh."
That's evasive nonsense in clear contradiction to what you've argued earlier.
If you say so Josh.
But your inability to read and digest a simple English sentence has already been demonstrated in this short exchange and the wider gap between what is happening and what you understand is just too wide to bridge.
Go to bed now...the adults are busy.
I was reading the article about greek economic crises and it seems to me we arrive to a no return point. Situations like the greek one make me think about a country engaged in a war ( civil war as well as international ) with lots of lasting, apparently endless, suffering inflicted to people who definitely do not deserve it. This "war" is going on since at least four years and nobody knows when it will finish. In case like that, when the UN works, usually a peacekeeping unit ( more rarely a peace enforcement unit ) is sent to this country to restore peace and protect civilian from the consequences of a war. This to say that for greece we can think about an international growth-keeping unit, made by experts coming from a wide range of different fields ( politics, economic, international relations, sociology, law, architecture, engineering ecc. ) that are essential for the life of a country in order to restore it. This has to be made with a strong partnership with local experts or experts of greek economy, society, politics ecc. for the obvious reason that a concrete rooting of important decisions could not be made without their advices. In order to be even more legitimated to the greek population, a strong and effective advertisement campaign based on the bios of every member of the task-force has to be made and, why not, a referendum to decide if they want them or not. A collateral requirement of this task-force unit is that all the staff should be in love with greece for some reason, thus, their action could be led at least by a sentiment of philanthropy ( is not volunteering, they could be paid, for example with UN-EU funds ), in order to hold back at most rent seeking .
Summarizing what I imagine is a task-force of technicians not to impose austerity measures but to develop innovative projects of growth, following the strongest trends of our times ( sustainability, green economy, corporate social responsibility, web start up, participate democracy ) with the only incentive of our times : scarcity of resources/austerity ( let ideas grow faster and slowly replacing them in terms of importance ).
Niccolò Natali
Well, the tone detoriates when "soft pressure" does not work......
Would you co-sign the new credit card application of a prolifigate realtive?
Probably not - where is the difference to the current EZ situation?
Emma and Marie Claude, have fun!
On US PBS NewsHour, a Spanish woman said that;
"We go to hell. Then they (=Germans) will follow us.."
This is going acromonious. Everyone is blaming on Germany despite it's all their elites' faults. I see the end of eurozone and EU.
Isn't the blame towards Germany coming from the periphery elites' in the first place (mostly)?
And wouldn't getting a grip at the structural issues in the periphery mean that the same elites' stop fleecing their own population - thus endangering their own well-being?
And that what it is all about - and nobody dares to mention it?
If you borrow deceitfully and inject the debts into local economy too much, you are unleasing the mother of all inflations. Everything will go up up up and become too much expensive. When your creditors find out you are crooks, you are in big big big big trouble! Everything is so expensive but you don't have money and cannot borrow! What a pity!
Unlike sovereign nation like the US, Japan etc. which can run up 200% GDP debt, the Greeks probably made a big blunder by borrowing big times in euros without control of a printing press to repay loans as a last resort.
Inflation isn't their problem right now. They are in a deflationary and contractionary spiral.
Secondly, if you (demonstrably) aren't good for the money, who will lend to you? Getting into a big amount of debt the second time will be much harder.
Korrekt sikko tovaritsch !!
We know lumpen behaviorik of KryptoFaskistnik Running Ratz Federastniki katastrovnik !
EUSSR-Federastniki same FPIIGS not working alway cheating passing blame !!
Plitplov make korrekt !
So Plitplov having many funs with fat Grek !!
Plitplov making razzia on Grek refugeniki in fleeing BMW !!
We make korrekt torture on Grek for millions stolen Euro and gold my Subsidiariniojsk !!
They giving all back to safe Plitplov, Plitplov making all say thankyou !!
Kroatniki, Mazedojskniki, Romanski helping Plitplov patrol all fat Grek BMW fleeing Grek to North !!
Plitplov, Plovdiv, The Tiptop Bulgar !!
"They are in a deflationary and contractionary spiral."
That's just the begining of the giant slalom!
Not owning the printing press is neither the reason for Greece's plight nor is it the 'solution'. But it surely would ease the adjustment pain. Countries can't really pay with their own printed paper money for commodities and their other imports. It's rather the (still) credibility of Japan and the US which makes their debt sustainable. Greece would be a completely another matter altogether, rather resembling Argentina . . . if not even Zimbabwe.
Comical and ignorant as usual.
There is no deceitful country borrowing. There is just borrowing. Markets know very well the true state of Spanish economy now or the Italian as they knew the Greek some years ago.
And there is a point that the borrowing stops. At this point if the amount is small then the one that borrowed the money is in trouble since he cannot pay. If the amount is large then the creditor is in trouble as well. And they try for a common viable solution, in which the one borrowed will repay.
Since the 10th century economies are based on this value. And today it is the cornerstone of capitalism. Nothing new here. And what happens today it will happen many times in the future.
Everybody knew nobody acted. So spare us with the primary school simplifications. If you want to find deceitful transactions you will have to look in inter-bank transactions and investments. These can be kept under the hood until they blow up the bank. And that is why everybody is talking about tighter controls.. US and Europe.
You don't understand how modern industrialised economies work. I can see why you have so much trouble understanding why Greece and southern europe have so much problems in adapting globalised environment. You never lived and educated in industrialised societies. You have no idea how those societies work.
You are exposing yourself even more.
A journey through your comments provide us with a clear view quality of your thoughts.
Take a camping trip and stop commenting... the nature might help in clearing your mind.
And if you ever get rid of the spite and the nationalistic feelings that trouble your mind, then education is easy..
Dear Economist,
I ask a serious question. If Greece defaults on its sovereign debt, why does it have to leave the Euro area? How is it different to say California defaulting on its debt? California wouldn't be expelled from the United States.
I'm missing the connection between default and expulsion from the Euro. Perhaps there is one and I'm unaware.
Would be ever so grateful if you could explain clearly.
If Bavaria defaulted on its debt, would it be expelled from Germany?
California is not a country, it is part of a country called USA.
Comparing apples to oranges.
Thank you for your patronising comment that ignores the question the true question at hand.
Why must a country that defaults on sovereign debt be ejected from a currency union?
How does being a country make it different? Is there a treaty that says if you default on debt then you don't get to use the currency? Is that an actual rule?
Zimbabwe for example uses the US dollar (as do several other countries that aren't part of the United States). What's to stop the Greeks doing the same with the Euro? Default on the debt - keep the Euro.
Looks like mindless question to me.
Do you understand what trade/current account deficit is and how it affects your country?
Yes - do you?
I agree getting rid of the debt doesn't help competitiveness. It does however get rid of the debt. Having no debt would stop the massive interest payments allow what taxes that are collected to be redirected internally, no?
Back to the question. Is there anything legal stopping Greece from defaulting but staying in the currency union.
For a snide commentator your aren't very good at answering a simple question.
officially they can't leave the eurozone, but still they can if the decison comes from the Greek government, but no other EZ country has the right to expell them, there's no article in the EU constitution for it (or rather in the Lisbone treaty), so a guess, why is Germany pressing on Greece?
But it's not so simple, as soon as Greece would leave, the markets have several other weak links in EZ, and then, the same dilemn would come on board again.. and the whole thing could cramble
It's why today, the EU/EZ Germany Elites are playing the game of poker-menteur (liar), none is telling the truth, you can bet that there are things behind the curtains, like that:
I completely agree its all a game of liars poker. Politics in general is like that.
So let me get this straight. Greece can't be forced out. Greece can chose to default. Greece can chose to leave the Euro.
Defaulting will cost other European countries lots of money and also cause potential contagion. Defaulting will help Greece since it won't have to service a huge debt. Germany stands dead against quantitative easing and Euro bonds.
The only thing keeping Greece from defaulting is that they know if they did, the rug would be pulled away by the ECB from their banking system (like the link) whose collapse would usher in a complete collapse of the Greek economy back to barter methods (since the banking system is dead).
Yet, as this continues the public get more tired of it and ready for more radical (read stupid) decisions.
OK - I think my short positions are safe.
and in the meanwhile Greece cities would become like Mogadischio, infested by gangs, terrorists, pirats... and finally a fashist regime
so, a image very far from what we were sold the euro dream, that would bring peace, wealth... none would want to adher to EU anymore, and to buy into the euro, and some other would leave
a nightmare for the historians
If the Greeks try to default AND stay in the Euro, then the rest of EU could be really vindictive and punish Greece in a really nasty way: Allow Turkey to join the EU!
Sarko is gone, so there is no one to veto Turkish membership just this moment in time, if Greek (and Greek Cypriots) are discredited by this default fiasco.
How is this a punishment of Greece? Aside form the fact that anyone,including Greece, Cyprus or France(Hollande is also against membership if I remember correctly) can veto?
I give up.
How can one country have different currencies?
Do you know of any country that has two different currencies?
Does Canada have two currencies?
Does Mexico have two currencies?
A country cannot have different currencies which is why California cannot be expelled, which is why Ontaria cannot be expelled from Canada, etc.
PS: Zimbabwe does not share the same currency as the USA. It has its own Zimbabwen currency which is also called dollar. Canada has its own currency also called dollar. Australia and New Zealand also have their own currency called dollar.
China had two currencies for many years (they gave the foreigners a special one which they disbanded in the 90s) and arguably does again today with onshore and offshore RMB (no, they aren't completely fungible).
Still its not the point. My question was answered by Marie Claude however. Thank you. They can default but its politics keeping them from doing so, not the legalities.
As politics created, so shall it destroy.
Regarding your PS - please visit the Wikipedia page for Zimbabwean dollar and then follow the link to "Dollarization". In case you are too lazy, here is the key part.
"The Zimbabwean dollar had become largely irrelevant, with the economy being almost completely dollarized.[28] Even the national postal service, Zimpost, was said to be charging customers postage in US Dollars, even though some of the stamps were in Zimbabwean Dollar denomination."
Now you can give up. :)
So, all you boffins, who's next after Grexit?
Just what will Pumpernickel's 'Perpetuum Mobile' get up to next?
Will it be Porxit-time, Eirexit-time, Itaxit, or Spanxit?
How're those spreads cooking?
"I agree getting rid of the debt doesn't help competitiveness."
Do you know that having foreign debts help to improve competitiveness? This is true only if you have your own currency! Large foreign debts devalue your currency. This helps your local manufacturers' competitiveness. As a matter of facts, Asian countries rebounded quickly after the Asian meltdown. But this may not help much Greece, since she does not have significant manufacturing industries.
I don't think they have to leave. They might start like California paying their civil servants with IOUs. I don't know if the Greek markets would accept these IOUs and at what rates. But it would be very difficult to import oil or medicaments with this currency, same problem as with a new Drachma. This shows, that there is no Euro crisis, but a sovereign debt crisis. The Euro crisis will hit, when the money printed by Tricheur and Draghi to illegally financing sovereign debt via the banks spills.
An economy to be competitive does not have to have manufacturing industries. It has been explained to you many times but still you do not get it. Try harder.. google it. Ask people that know...
There is shipping, there is agriculture, there is finance, there is tourism, there is service and many others.
If you exclude Germany which its economy is depended on manufacturing (and mainly cars with the wide sense of the thousand of companies involved), you will see that the rest of the EU countries have other industries as well. The Dutch, the British, Austrian, Finish etc etc Developed to one degree or another. Some imported manufacturing industries such as the UK.. many factories are owned by Japanese companies.
The core of the EU idea and policy was since day 1 and remains today, to develop the comparative advantages of each country and not transform Europe into a huge manufacturing area. To have a unified interconnected economy both in information and in transfer, of people and goods, done in a modern way. And hence crate a huge home market.
US dollars are accepted in Zimbabwe - so what?
US dollars are also accepted in Canada and several Carribean countries, however that does not mean they share the same currency as the USA.
The British pound is still accepted in Ireland, however that does not mean Ireland's currency is the British pound, its currency is the euro.
You seem to be unable to tell the difference between sharing a currency union, and the use of foreign currency in a country.
You have no idea what you are talking about other than blame other countries. That's why Greece has so many problems and it will be much worse.
"US dollars are accepted in Zimbabwe - so what?"
US dollars are accepted in everywhere. As a matter of fact, 67% of printed US notes are circulated in outside US as reserves and for international or national transactions.
Anyone that might want to see mine or your views, the only thing he has to do is read our comments in this and other articles. Just a click on the name is enough..
I have never blamed other countries..
Ask people, talk to scholars my Greek friend.. you are in some way Greek.. you cannot avoid that. I have explained it to you in other replies.
Nationalistic and spiteful.. it all starts from there. And because of them you are ridiculing yourself and constantly blathering of topic..
"What's to stop the Greeks doing the same with the Euro? Default on the debt - keep the Euro."
But then, of course, they wouldn't get any bailout backing, neither from the Eurozone members nor from the ECB. And they couldn't print the currency either, as they could when returning to their own money, e.g. the drachma.
Best would be to run both currencies parallel. Drachma as a means of daily payment and the Euro as a 'saving and traveling currency".
From about 1997 onwards, the EU seems to be overreaching and overextending. The current crisis may be EU's own Stalingrad: Retreat now or face total ruin.
Exit strategy/plan from the Euro back to national currencies may be in order. Single currency works only if common workers are prepared to migrate anywhere within the currency zone (as in the US of A).
I disagree, the problem is not overreaching and overextending, the problem is that you cannot have an economical union with out a political union, in the USA they had a crisis too, Obama said "We will fight the crisis the Keynes way", the mint started printing cash, and for the time they seem to be ok.
In the E.U there are 17 heads of states, one is allready bankrupt (Greece)others are about to(Italy,Portugal,Spain) and another one benefits greatly from the crisis (Germany), what do they do?, they spend their days arguing and pointing fingers at each other, some want austerity, others want stimulus,meanwhile Greece is about to slam the door as is exiting the Euro.
Actually Greece is the Afghanistan of EU and Eurozone. They are quagmired in Greece now. That's why we keep hearing the dreadful C-word agaian and again!
Don't worry about other countries. Worry about your own country Greece!
The comparison is as spiteful as your other comments.
Hence it is not only unsuccessful, it is also comical as usual.
I see you have found a new word to use. Quagmired! Wow...
Knowing your comments I cannot wait to explain to us who is quagmired... who exactly do you mean?
Please tell us 11 million Greeks as you have done so many times in the past... please make us laugh again.
Nope. Not possible. A true European that knows what the Union is all about will worry for the Union as well as for his own country. That is the way the Union is supposed to be. And that is why all other countries came to the rescue of the South.
So the Spanish the Greek the Italian the Portuguese etc etc will worry about the Union in the same way the German does, the Finish, the Dutch, etc
We are all co-owners...
If you do not like it you can always immigrate..
I dont know what you have been smoking, but it must be damn good!!!!, and no i dont worry about my country, i am young and i have the will to work, Quaqmired?, we will see who will be that when greece will exit and your Banks loose one trillion euros,The firewall esf and ecb builted is not strong enough to handle a grexit and the profiteer attacks on spanish and italian bonds, i have 2 reports on my office,one from citybank and one from HSBC claiming that.
And its not a bluff, Greece will exit the euro, every time mr Scauble and frau Merkel intervene in greek politics they give Mr. Tsipras a bonus, i am the same age as him,when we were in school he made the minister of education back down, do you think he will succumb to pressure from the E.U?.
You EVEN have trouble understanding comments.
I wrote "Germany is quagmired in Grease, the Afghanistan of Gremany". Obviously you cannot swim well in grease.
As tiresome as it is to have to repost stuff on the invitation of the mods, having been removed through no fault of mine, it would be a real pity if such sublime writing full of wit and originality would not become published again ;-) So here we go again with the kind permission of a totally innocent poster, Anjin-san from Miura village:
Oulala … les perfides rosbifs dit it to you again, ou la vache.
But why? You have been behaving fairly civilized lately. Any venom was usually directed against ze Germanz which is as it should be. No surprises here. Have I overlooked something? I suspect some of your links must have been putting their hackles up or maybe you mentioned Dunkirk again, the real story?
Why would anybody want to ban you? Or was it the bottom sniffer stalking both of us?
If viva, now in Pareeh, reads this he will blow a fuse. He might even be incensed enough to come back right from his hotel PC. I know I would if I was under the charm of Pareeh and then they would ban our favourite frenchie on the TE blog. It is almost as bad as burning Jeanne d'Arc.
Mary Claudius. Hilarious.
continued ...
Welcome back. I missed you. You must have left in a hurry when you gave away our last chess game?
Are you still in Pareeh or back on the farm? How are we going to keep you there now that you've seen Pareeh :-) A Moveable Feast, right? Did you go to Shakespeare & Co., Closerie de Lilas, Rue de la Huchette? Got into any fights with French waiters? Tell us all viva. We deserve to know all.
My post addressed to Maher does not pass the spam filter. I wonder why.
One more try:
MC ... do you, like Maher, believe that the Euro can survive if Germany was to return to the DM?
Maher, of course, believes that money can be created from thin air and once the ECB printing press is controlled by France you can print as much as you need, just like the UK. Maher also will make us believe that the UK is doing just fine and dandy in this fashion.
The more mature amongst us, the more knowledgable, know, of course, that only a reserve currency can indulge in creating money from thin air, i.e. the US dollar or the Euro in its present form but NEVER a Euro without Germany.
Spreads would shoot up to 10% + for all FGIPS. Maher knows this, of course, and this is what he is hoping for. The destruction of the hated Continent.
I have to disappoint you - I'll leave responding to Maher to you. I find his trademark combination of dullness and cocksuredness rather uninspiring.
If I had to chose, I'd even prefer talking to furious Joe/ Milovan, even though he is realiably over the top in his sweeping accusations.
Maher is too robotic for me. An "upmarket emmafinney=Sherryblack", so to speak.
You didn't anwer my question re the Leopard 2A5, btw - were you trained how to drive one? If so - you never cease to amaze!
So you can't be bothered to respond to Maher, while Pumpernickel made a hash of it and was outed (see above). As for poor Pedro, at the top of page 1, well he just ranted as usual.
A pretty sad crew you make, don't you think?
"Maher is too robotic for me. An "upmarket emmafinney=Sherryblack", so to speak."
Maher, as no doubt you must have realized, is "crammerboy". When I always refer to "Maher's kitchen" this is what I mean. Maher does have colleagues though who are more talented and gave us "germanambassador" who is far too abstinent now.
Of course, you cannot expect these characters to hold their own in a discussion about economics not even against economic ignoramuses like me who did their bit with real things like manufacturing and never listened to economists doing it.
As to the 2A5. Yes. Its most advanced feature is the independent positioning of its gun, no matter in which position the tank, which makes the Abrams look like a toy in comparison, because it really works. No wonder they all want it. Germanz technology.
How to become Rich 101:
Asians (Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, China, Japan) - work hard, study hard, make sacrifices, make great things and inguenity.
Greece - work as little as possible, be corrupt, make nothing, Stay in the Euro and have Northern Europeans pay for everything, then complain and blame/threaten them when you don't get what you want.
Really? You mean there are no rich Greeks, or Asians working for slave wages? So many Americans I know work themselves to death and end up having to file for bankruptcy, because of stress related health issues, and inadequate health insurance coverage.
Welcome to Reality 101 Mr. Smith.
We need two hands to clap. There will be no lazy and naive borrowers without greedy lenders. So blaming on the lazy PIGS alone is not fair. The greedy German banksters are bailed by all members of EU, but the ordinary Greeks are left holding the baby with a shattered economy.
On what grounds do you base your statement that Greeks work as little as possible?That, as I get it from what you say, they are corrupt? What do you know for the majority of Greek people and families? For the average Greek person? Do you know for sure that they don't study hard, they don't work hard?
You're probably the most extreme nationalist whom I know on the TE blogs and at the same time an extreme Euro-federalist.
This is not a contradiction. Euro federalism (also the current discussion about Eurobonds) is a certain form of hatred for Germany. Both inside and outside of Germany.
But in reality I think you are not a real Euro dreamer at heart. Your nationalism will always prevail.
I think you are easily impressable by charismatic persons or fame and power in general (see your blind enthusiasm for Draghi, Papandreou, Haider only because you met them once.). And I think you try hard to adapt and fit into the socialist groups and associations where you were member of, or to whom you feel a bond.
So. The Italian leftists are extreme Europeans - you are an extreme European. Prodi pushed the Euro - you love the Euro.
In reality you don't realy intelectually believe the things you wrote about the Euro here over the last years - if you aknowledge it or not. They are wrong anyway and as an economist you know it.
Recently you wrote somewhere, that if Germany pushes Greece out of the Euro (if Greece leaves it is of course Germany's fault), you could instantly change your opinion and would strongly support that Italy leaves too.
That is intellectually dishonest (but I would not expect anything else from you) and only your scapegoat.
In reality you have already spotted the next charismatic socialist whom you want to follow. Beppe Grillo.
You just can't change your stance on the Euro 180° without losing face. That's the only thing that's holding you back.
In the end, only blaming Germany can give you that excuse before yourself.
It's all very childish.
"You're probably the most extreme nationalist whom I know on the TE blogs and at the same time an extreme Euro-federalist."
Yes, rather like Pedro Porxit to name but one.
The federasts face this very choice conundrum.
Amusing, don't you think?
Federalism or unionism gives the opportunity to blame others for their own failures and incompetence. Why not be a federalist if you are failures! You should know why they advocate federalism.
Before talking about federalism you should learn what nationalism is. The noble idea that inspired the French revolution the Greek and the American revolution. The idea that produced the nation states in one of which you live and you enjoy the freedom to write the crap that you write without being afraid of the consequences, and rightly so.
having done that you can take the next step.. learn about the sick nationalism that eventually led to the 2 WW.
And finally see the remains of this sick idea in the form of comical but yet dangerous minorities all over the world.
Then you can advance on judging federalism. Which is gaining ground continuously in our globalized economy. In the little village that the world has become.
It is the only way forward and it has started in failure with the League of Nations and improved with the UN. The forst real experiment was the EU. To tally different than the US. In the EU your national identity remains in equal status with the European one. A truly successful experiment that produced wealth, peace and civilization.
In the Versailles treaty nationalism and revenge prevailed. We all know the end of this story.
In 53 Germany had to have the giant Adenauer and other inspired European and American politicians that knew what hard times is to write of its debt and support her. And this policy produced the truly democratic and liberal country that Germany is today.
In the case of Greece and the other countries there was no need for inspiration. Adenauer took care of that decades ago. The Union existed and acted immediately. Unprecedented in history. And all that because of the Union. Nations going to the rescue of other nations instead of creating divisions and borders.
All this because of the immature Union which is still in its teens. Not a true Union of independent nations yet.
So you will say thank you and write the crap that you do as usual.
I am flattered you have taken such an interest in my opinions - and past postings.
Just for the record, I certainly never agreed with the politics of Haider - I merely noted that the man was charismatic, not particularly arrogant, attentive and intelligent in person. He was actually a very likeable person.
I would have some complaints about Draghi - but I do not think they are so relevant in the current context. He is doing an excellent job in a very difficult context. Without him, the Euro had already failed.
Papandreou came and campaigned here in Trieste seven years ago. I saw him give an excellent speech in Italian that roused hundreds of party faithful like nobody had seen in decades. Keeping in mind that most Italian cities lean Left anyway, I am convinced the man would be elected mayor in any Italian city he chose to run in.
Please don't call Grillo a Socialist ;-) He would be very offended. In 1986 he cracked a joke on TV - "Claudio Martelli went to China and asked Craxi - If they are ALL Socialists here in China, then who do they steal from?" He was banned from TV for six years after that comment:
No, I will not vote for Beppe - even though he is right on most things. I cannot agree with his comment that Italy should default and tough luck for France if they have invested too much money in our country. This would be a true back stab.
However many of my friends, especially the university-educated young people are voting Grillo. The consensus is generally the same: He may not be right about everything, but he is the only one who is challenging our pathetic political class on all the right issues.
I was not really so enamoured of Prodi, although I defended and voted for him for a decade. First of all, he was a Christian Democrat - not my favourite people. Secondly, he was getting old by 2007. But I believed very strongly in the Euro and Prodi was the first Christian Democrat who was actually a competent economist and administrator. That is to say, he actually believed numbers counted (as opposed to Andreotti, who used to say, "votes should be weighed and not counted".
In any case, what have you got against Italian Leftists? We were the ones who did everything humanly possible to put national accounts in order - and got punished three times for this at the voting booth.
The recent Spiegel article seeking to scapegoat Italy for the failure of the Euro (rather Germany's own excessively rigid and boneheaded policies)spent three pages making the wildest accusations of Left politicians "tricking" our accounts - and did not mention Berlusconi ONCE. So obviously, the fact that Bunga Bunga dominated our media undemocratically, sold false images of an easy life with bosoms and buttocks everywhere for years, was not worthy of criticism. He it was that exceeded Maastricht criteria for 3 years - with no censure coming from Germany, where the Christian Democrats covered his ass for a decade.
Yes, Greece is Germany's fault. Not their debts (although German bankers played their infernal part there), but because Germany insisted on rules prohibiting one EZ country from helping another. And so, three years ago Sweden and Poland could help out Latvia, but Italy is powerless to aid Greece, even though a Greek default will certainly hit our bond markets too, even though our exposure there is limited.
However, we now have €45 billion in exposure to Greece. Why? Because we agreed to assist with the bailouts two years ago, even though our banks only had 3 billion of exposure. We lent these monies convinced Greece would pay back. The Italian taxpayer thus bailed out German banks. If we had known the Germans were only intent on kicking out Greece - and would refuse to suspend rules against assistance that were drawn up 15 years ago without a crisis on the horizon- then we should have said NO to the bailout right from the start - and left GERMAN banks to rot.
You are right about not being able to change my stance on the Euro so easily - but changing it I am, and with me the majority of my countrymen.
As for being "childish" for blaming Germany - And who else is to blame? The United States? Japan? The Central African Empire? Who has dictated Euro policy for 20 years, ever since Maastricht in 1992? Who refuses to review the rules in an intelligent way? Who is most bent on pushing Greece out of the Euro and provoking default? Who lent the most to Greece in the first place?
Get real. You Germans never want to assume responsibility for your own failed policies.
Giovanni Guareschi, the author of the Don Camillo stories, once wrote of a German woman he knew, who...
"...after having lived many years in the peninsula married to an Italian had learnt to think like a normal person."
She once recounted her memories as a little girl during the war. It was customary to be given a day off from school whenever the Fatherland won an important battle at the front.
She remembered in particular two such free days that were granted together: on the first day, a major victory on the front was celebrated; on the second day, the war was over and Germany had lost.
Typical of the Germanz. Never change your idea, never admit you are wrong and never retreat. Continue winning the war right up to the day you lose.
And so, now the Bundesbank tells us that a Greek default/exit is "manageable", austerity is working, not a drop of aid must be extended to Greece or Portugal or Ireland, (otherwise Italy will be asking for aid - this when our deficit is already below 2%) and inflation is still a major fear.
Then they tell us that Greece "will suffer" for a few years, but after that there will be a recovery.
Thus does Berlin drive the world economy right toward Armageddon.
This from ZeroHedge:
""The next big financial crisis we will face will not come from Europe", Charles Biderman of TrimTabs notes, "but rather from China." In a brief but thought-provoking clip, Charles takes on the corruption in the 'manufactured' GDP data and outlines three more critical real-time (hard-to-fake) data points (electricity consumption, railcar-loadings, and bank-loans) that suggest China is potentially already in a recession. "Most investors do not even think this is possible", he adds, as China is the hope that so many market participants hold on to as the engine of global growth."
And this...
"Nowhere is the danger greater than in Belgium at present. They paid $7.13 billion for their share of Dexia and took on, at the time, another $71.9 billion in contingent liabilities. Since then they have provided sovereign guarantees for BNP Paribas in Belgium and for Fortis Banque which has taken Belgium to $182.2 billion in sovereign guaranteed bank debt. In addition they have provided $20.7 billion in capital and $11.4 billion in loans to the financial sector. Taken all together this totals $213.8 billion which is nowhere to be found in their debt to GDP ratio. Just these liabilities alone are then equivalent to 41% of Belgium's GDP. On 4/20/12 the central Bank of Belgium admitted the economy was in contraction and that the current "official" debt to GDP ratio was 98.2%. This then takes financial sector contingent liabilities and the "official" debt to GDP ratio to an astounding 139.2% but the story does not end there. Belgium is accountable for $132.8 billion of the ECB's balance sheet, $50 billion for the Stabilization Funds, $36 billion for the Macro Financial Assistance Fund, $26.8 billion of the European Investment Bank's balance sheet which adds another $245.6 billion to Belgium's liabilities. Consequently Belgium's European liabilities are an additional 64% of their GDP. Then the gross total is: Belgium's Actual Debt to GDP Ratio 203.2%"
As usual, Germany is not listening to us Italians. The real danger are the private banks - which in Italy are not a problem as in the rest of Europe. Our banks have a bit of excess exposure to Hungary, moderate exposure to Spain and too much exposure to our own government bonds (but we would never default, nor do we need to). That's it. No Greek exposure, no American mortgage exposure, no Portuguese exposure, no Irish exposure.
Our banks are in general the oldest in the world - most of them have their roots in the late 1400's. It is child's play to recapitalise them, based upon their prestige and aggregate Italian private savings. The recapitalisation delay in a few cases (mostly MPS) has not been about Economics, but about the politics of control: the existing municipal foundation owners are loathe to give up their centuries-long control. Otherwise, our banks are hiding assets, not losses.
Go ahead, Germany - lead Europe off the edge of the cliff, once again for the third time in 100 years. God forbid we gift a few billion to Greece (and maybe Ireland and Portugal) to avert Armageddon...
Excuse me, Milo, but -
Achtung! Eurobot censors lurking on thread!
The editor has kindly approved the reposting of the following:
@Pumpernickel at 05.40
"With the exception of Greece they are all seriously trying to do something about it. Conditions will be stretched as needed and they will climb out of their hole, no matter what is written in the British Press". (May 23rd, 05.40)
Your scape-goating of the Brit press for bad-mouthing the weaker EZ members is well past its sell-by date . Better try something new since the whole of Europe has now realised who the real slanderers are in Europe. The Germans - press AND government. (btw a German even invented the term PIIGS for the English language press.)
Look into the outrage felt by Italians and Spaniards at the insults rained down on them. The French fired Sarkozy because of German interference.
"My guess is that the UK will be applying for Euro membership 5 - 10 years from now or become utterly irrelevant".
Well if any of your past "guesses" are anything to go by ('Unity through diversity', 'post democratic Europe', 'subsidiarity', 'post-capitalist society' 'Sarkozy will win the French election'),
I would say that sterling is safe for another thousand years at least.
@Marie-Claude 06:30
After flogging off obsolescent bridging equipment to Germany, good news for BAe who have just clinched a huge Saudi order for Hawk Trainers.
show less
Pumpernickel !!
Was that you at the back there again!? What WILL you learn?
Come to the front of the class and write out 1000 times for me :
Chancellor Merkel may think she can dictate her "EU" policy in Europe, but your insertion HERR into HÉRISSON is a step too far - an abuse of the Geneva Convention !
Funny, if you do not like Germans, why does Italy always beg for help.
Reminder: Invasion of Greece, Invasion of Egypt. Both times Italy sucked and begged Germany for help. Reward: 1943 Italy stabbed Germany in the back once the 1st Americans showed up.
Forward to 2012. Italy is broke. Whom are the begging for help ? Germany.
Whom are they again to stab in the back ? Germany. See a pattern here? Obviously, this is the kind of behaviour you call "normal".
And " lead Europe off the edge of the cliff" ... Well, of course Italy was a victim in the WW2, never wanted to participate. It's all the Germans fault.
"Friends" like Italy we really do not need. Let's break up the EU/EZ and may Italy rot in hell.
Eurobot Josh was spotted posting on another blog when remarks were deleted.
Looks like busybody Josh was at it again, hiding in the 'Exodus,chapter 1' blog while rushing about and censoring remarks over here. I gather my NYtimes link about German media bashing of Greeks was also too much for him.
"The Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, an influential daily newspaper, ran an editorial on the front page
The article seemed written to push Greek buttons, saying that with a return to the old drachma currency, Greece would be "an upmarket Bulgaria," referring to Greece's neighbor, which after decades of Communist rule lagged far behind Greece in its development.
Even after leaving the euro, Greece could still receive aid, but it would no longer be credits but instead "a form of humanitarian emergency aid."
Finally the paper said "hopefully one won't have to consider an international protection force," as in countries to the north, referring presumably to Bosnia and Kosovo."
Yes, I am beginning to agree.
Why are you blaming the Italians for the behavior of that tin pot dictator Mussolini who was despised by the vast majority of Italians and they strung him up on a tree when they finally caught him and welcomed the allies as liberation from fascism.
This in sharp contrast to the fanatical devotion of the majority of Germans who blindly supported their fuhrer . The height of Hitler's popularity was after the conquest of France.
Whereas the Italian military gave up on their fascist leaders and switched sides because they were not blinded by fanaticism.
Why should I have taht link deleted, dumbo? I completely agree with it.
Greece IS nothing else but an "upmarket Bulgaria", and it has been ME who has been comparing the two countries in this blog for a lomng time, arguing that Greece cannot afford a lifestyle that is 3-4 times as elevated as Bulgaria's, while being just as (un)productive as its post-commie neighbor.
"Frankfurter Allgemeine" is a marvellous newspaper, by the way, and considered one of the world's top 3 (the other top two being the NYT and the WSJ).
So full marks, great link, great newspaper. I also like the author. Keep posting this link.
Don't mix up Italy with Milovan.
Get a grip Joe, we should be worrying about all these nationalists/fascist, which have occupied OUR Charlie. (yes it IS ours!)
It's not really that much fun like this.
What can we do? Complain? I'm going to stick to poetry, music, and ridiculous tirades.
Don't mix up Greece with Portugal, Spain and Italy, Josh.
Gosh no! Can't possibly be Genoese or European even.
Ha, ha, ha, ha, ha !!
Greece is leaving the euro soon - the dice is cast, face it. It has made its own bed.
UK PM Cameron is weighing in on the side of the proponents of a Greek exit in case it does not comply.
Not playing by the rules is not a popoular concept in the Northern European/ Northern American world. The Alps are like the Rio Grande - a watershed dividing a world where rules are considered "flexible" (Mexico, Italy, Greece), and a world where they are expected to be obeyed (US, UK, Germany). As always, France is straddling the fence. LOL
For more on the issue:
I'm not judging, btw. That's just how it is.
I don't mix "Greece (up) with Portugal, Spain and Italy".
I am putting Greece in a box with the likes of Bulgaria. Spain and notably Italy have a much stronger economy than Greece. Portugal doesn't really, but unlike Greece, it isn't rotten. That's a huge plus.
It's also a "nation" in the political sense which can rally around the flag in a time of need, as we see now, while Greeks keep playing their little games at the 11th hour.
Pardon my cynicism, but it's a bit hard to respect a people that shows so little self-respect, to be honest. By the time the Greek government will start taxing the many Greek multi-millionaires properly and cracking down on cronyism, I might reconsider.
I like ancient Greece, though.
I agree - 90% of what Milovan/Joe scribbles of late is pretty "pathetic".
For some weird reason, I still kinda like the guy, though. Sometimes you get a sense someone is a lot more likable in real life than he is able to let out here (I would claim the same for myself LOL).
And on that note.
"Friends" like Italy we really do not need"
Germany is better with Russia and China; This countrys not always critize us and talk about nazi all the time, and say we want to destroy Europa. If we stay with Italy and France and Uk and spain, all the time we will hear bad things about Germany from this peopels.
'I'm going to stick to poetry, music, and ridiculous tirades'.
Well, the 'poetry' is pretty crummy and the 'music' I haven't seen yet. As for the 'ridiculous tirades', it'll just be business as usual. No posting of yours has ever been anything BUT a 'ridiculous tirade'.
Why don't you follow Unterhosen's advise and go and wash dishes in Germany? Make yourself useful, instead of bitching all day about how horrible everyone is to the Portuguese.
"Unterhosen" (German for "underpants") is another alter ego of emmafinney's aka Sherryfake, who also invented "Rote Unterhosen" (red underpants). Variatio delectat. Easy to tell. Whoever falls for her provocations is a fool.
OK - your feelings are acceptable. Let me respond:
1) Italy did not ask for help, either in the invasion of Greece or Egypt. Actually, we got the stuffing kicked out of us, and Germans came of their own decision - to stop the Axis from receiving a humiliating defeat, in both cases. In fact, the dictator Benito was so embarrassed that he insisted on reciprocating by sending 250,000 ill-equipped Italian soldiers into Russia to assist Germany. Of these only 80,000 ever made it back to Italy.
2) 1943 was not a stab in the back. It was a collapse of the Italian state at all levels. This is much debated, especially by the Left: 8 September 1943 - the day Italy died. It is fashionable once again these days to say that our country never has recovered from the defeat of 8 September: what exists instead is a Vatican-occupied, corrupt state.
3) In 2012, Italy is not broke. Our deficit is at 1.8%. Other states are broke and they are projecting their troubles onto us, because nobody wants to admit our accounts, especially the private ones, are simply not as leveraged as the rest of the western world. Germany apart of course.
We are today at risk of being pushed out of international borrowing markets - although this is not a serious risk today, it probably will be from the day after a Greek default. Nevertheless - and I admit this depends upon our government's competence - we could withstand this blow more easily than other countries.
In the case of a break-down of lending markets and a global depression, the only countries to survive (survive, not prosper) would be those with a fiscal surplus, a trade surplus, and over 90% domestic financing of their own debt.
In effect, Italy is not far away from this stance - and in a real pinch (which I think is coming, now that Germany is determined to push Greece into near total default) we are still able to slash expenses (pensions, public works and public salaries) that so far have only been nibbled at. We could produce a 2% surplus overnight in this fashion. Our smallish trade deficit is already heading toward zero this year - and by slashing energy consumption/imports (wartime conditions) we could produce a healthy trade surplus overnight. Keep in mind that would mean slashing energy imports from Switzerland, Slovenia and France, who would feel the pain...
As for financing internally our own debt rollovers - that is beginning to happen anyway. We were at 54% domestic holdings of our debt last year; rose to over 60% at the beginning of this year and is said to be rapidly approaching 70%. Given our high level of aggregate private savings (€8.6 trillion) the government will simply have to ramp up a sort of "buy Italian war bonds" campaign to get to over 90% financing of our debt.
It could be done, and I fear, will have to be done soon.
But it doesn't change the fact that other European countries will not hold, and will buckle. We will have a chain of other bankruptcies - including German banks.
Excuse my harsh words - but the fact is that Germany is leading Europe over a cliff. And, Germans continue to fear Italy will buckle when, in fact, WE are not the ones hiding big debt holes or losses or falsified accounts.
In fact, IF Euro markets are calm and not unstable, this country can still afford to make cash contributions to other states - IF those gifts would serve to calm markets and end the speculation/rising yields on our own debt.
Oh, BTW, on the Euro-bonds issue:
I have always been opposed, just as I was always opposed to the ECB buying our bonds last year (and at the beginning of this year).
My impression is that Hollande and Monti are letting Greece sink because they intend to press Germany incessantly on Euro-bonds - thinking that Berlin will finally accept the idea if Greece is out of the picture.
I am wholly opposed to this strategy, and I think the Germans will not budge anyway.
The right strategy is to gift a bit of help to Greece (and Portugal and Ireland) to avoid meltdown - and keep the Greek economy rolling along. Kick the can down the road for another year, and both the Greek and the European economy will be strengthened, given the fiscal consolidation under way everywhere.
Oh, and yet one last comment:
The 1st Americans who showed up had a lot of Italian-American soldiers with them. Damn right the Italians had no desire to fight Americans.
When the League of Nations declared sanctions in 1936 against Italy over the War in Ethiopia, the US, not being a member of the League, was practically the only large economy that DID NOT interrupt economic relations.
I would also remind you that we signed an Anti-Comintern Pact with Germany that was aimed at the Soviet Union, not France or the UK. Germany was the first country to betray that alliance, with the Ribbentrop-Molotov Pact.
Just wait. I promise you it will get worse, as long as Germany continues with this insane idea of a "showdown" with Greece and pushing large numbers of Greeks into starvation.
And, I promise you Italian public opinion does not approve of this punishment either - although I will grant you that our "technocratic" government may decide not to protest, having other ideas in mind (Euro-bonds).
Please excuse me - we Genoese are infamously the least diplomatic people in Italy, and frequently disliked around the peninsula for that reason. I just think it important that somebody express what Italians really think at this point in time. Just to avoid that "stab in the back" accusation...
Tell me Pumpy, do you really think Merkel is popular around Europe? Greece has screwed up - but nobody ever expected leadership from the Greeks, did they? Germany is a horse of another colour, no?
You Germans still don't get what leadership means, do you?
You are probably right - but Portugal does not "border" Greece. With various degrees of success, we Italians have been trying to conquer Greece for 2000 years.
During the Middle Ages, Genoa dominated the Upper Aegean: Pera, Lesbos, Lemnos, Chios and Samos. Venice dominated the southwest: Attica, Naxos, Seros, Mykonos and the rest of the Cyclades. And the Papal States, through the Knights Hospitallers of Rhodes, dominated the Dodecanese. Crete was Venetian. The North/South divide on Cyprus started with Genoa dominating the North (Famagosta) and Venice dominating the South. Genoa also dominated the old Greek kingdom of Trebizond, now forgotten (the "Pontine" Greeks).
And, Venetian and Genoese troops were among the last defenders of Constantinople (Why oppose the Turks entering Europe today? That battle was lost in 1453.)
Venice and Bologna are twinned with Salonicco. Genoa is twinned with its ex-colony of Chios (probable birthplace of Christopher Columbus). Bari (Magna Graecia) is twinned with Corfu. Reggio Calabria (also Magna Graecia) is twinned with Athens. Salerno with Kos.
We are taking the Greek situation very personally.
Apparently everyone is, especially here on this blog, a reflexion of what is best and what is worst in us.
Greece has managed a great feat. Funny how a country which, not so long ago was simply a part of the Ottoman Empire managed to spread so much dischord, not only in Europe but with serious repercussions to the rest of the world.
I must say people really take this way too seriously.
I don't understand why.
It was all fabricated from the start. The powers that be, chose this path for all of us to tread. Not much we can do now but bicker.
Thank you Greece for showing the worst in all of us.
Perhaps there is still a bit of Ancient Greece in you after all. I mean Greece was Greece until all the city states fought themselves to death.
Europe seems to enjoy copying this model for herself.
About nationalists/fascists. I think they were always here. They always are. They're a bit like sky rats, When they think the time has come there they come and poop all over our faces. Then they leave.
We have to stay strong. Get a scarecrow or something. Or a kalashnikov. I've heard sikko had some second-hand ones for sale.
"Not playing by the rules is not a popoular concept in the Northern European/ Northern American world."
The current "rules" have left large numbers of Greeks rummaging through dumpsters looking for food. You expect them not to rebel? These are not rules - they are bankrupt Economic theories. I call them Mengele Economics - divorced from all Ethics.
"It's also a "nation" in the political sense which can rally around the flag in a time of need, as we see now, while Greeks keep playing their little games at the 11th hour."
I agree. It was always Italian disdain for this aspect of Greeks that led us to seek to conquer Greece. Our city-states had stronger economies and civic traditions. It seems ridiculous today, but the Italy's Fascists were counting on this when they invaded Greece in 1940 - they thought the Greeks would not really defend their country (they too were Fascist and not democratic in those days). And actually, not that anybody noticed, but the Italian troops did not retreat into Albania - they stood their ground, fought to the death (not wanting to live with embarrassment of being defeated by Greece) and Italy's crack Alpine Julia division was annihilated - 10,000 mostly Friulian troops got wiped out.
Aside from their resistance to Italy, the Greeks do not really have a long tradition of successful resistance. They spent centuries as somebody else's colony. And despite what they say today, they accommodated themselves quite well under the Ottomans, where the Phanariot Greeks were the principal administrators of the Empire. I have close friends from western Thrace who are descendants of Phanariot Greeks - and they still refer to their country as "this Athenian state" - in effect, not the real Greece, which in their opinion is "Constantinople".
Please excuse my musings - the point is, the Greeks need help. They are not going to make it without a bit of gifted help, and no reforms can be effected in the midst of general economic collapse.
And, the Germans are smoking dope if they think a Greek default will not trigger Armageddon within the Euro-zone.
In between Germany and Russia/China is Poland.
Good luck with the Poles in the future.
Given Josh's desperate attempt to pin "unterhosen" on me it is no doubt one of of Josh's numerous alter egos giving vent to his true feelings about Greeks and southern Europeans which are even more thuggish than he exhibits as Josh.
"The current "rules" have left large numbers of Greeks rummaging through dumpsters looking for food."
You are beyond ridiculousness. This is not caused by Germans. It's because wealthy greeks not sharing with poor greeks. It's the greek resonsibility to take care of their own poor people. Greece has many many many millionaires. Greece boasts annual per capita income of $27,000! With that income, they can buy many truck loads of food. Greece is a super rich country. When greeks don't take care of their own poor people, why do you think outsiders should do the job?
c'est marrant, I believe I discern some racist subliminal message from the man without borders
I must say that you have a short memory, when Germany was in trouble, she was much more bellicose and nationalist
Pedro, the Greeks have much more dignity than anyone of us in EU, they who don't bow to Schaeuble and Merkel
the Greeks are Sea men first, and the best in the world, don't expect that such people that crossed seas and oceans, would live a boring teuton life
"Why are you blaming the Italians for the behavior of that tin pot dictator Mussolini..."
You really make my day. Yes, I am blaming them for the behaviour of the dictator they voted for.
"...welcomed the allies as liberation from fascism". That's one way to call it. I call it back stabbing their allies.
"Whereas the Italian military gave up on their fascist leaders.." Not all of them, North Italy remaind quite loyal up to 1945. Facist troops still fought againts the Anglo-Americans.
"... switched sides because they were not blinded by fanaticism." Or, they just wanted to get to the Allies' supplies. Theft was at an all time high in the Anglo-US zone.
"The height of Hitler's popularity was after the conquest of France." Well, name on battle the Italians won without Germany's help. Might be the reason,, why Mussolini was out of favor. When he tried to invade Greece, Egypt etc. he still was.
Excuse me, are you Russian? Have rich Russians shared with poor Russians over the last 20 years?
Let's leave some room for the idea that Greece is essentially a failed state.
"he insisted on reciprocating by sending 250,000 ill-equipped Italian soldiers into Russia "
Yes, we remember. These were the troops were the font line broke at Stalingrad. Many Thanks. Still does not improve my faith in Italy.
"8 September 1943 - the day Italy died" Funny, and I thought Italy does still exist. What country is Monti PM of ????
"what exists instead is a Vatican-occupied, corrupt state."
You are not for real, are you? Now blame it on the Pope, is it?
He is German afterall.
"1943 was not a stab in the back. " Of course it was, to us.
But we gave you a good spanking for that...
"Germans continue to fear Italy will buckle" No, we know that Italy will perform as many volte-de-face as it sees fit. Therefore we can not trust Italy.
If you don't cut the nonsense, I'll "make room for the possibility" that you have a "Mengele brain".
Come on, Joe/Milovan, this is one of the few moments where I react more nicely to one of your grotesque offenses than chummy Pumpy. You should seize the chance and score big! LOL
Only wealthy males and those who were war veterans were allowed to vote. Less than a third of the country had the franchise. The last elections were held in 1924 - before the dictatorship was established. By 1939 the country was bankrupt and the regime was wildly unpopular.
Northern Italy did not remain loyal - it was massively occupied by German troops. Nevertheless, and notwithstanding the economic difficulties, some 150,000 partisans took to the field. Within the Republic of Salò, over 50% of the draftees deserted, refusing to serve under the Germans - even upon pain of death for desertion.
BTW, in Genoa, the greatest Resistance stronghold, German forces surrendered to the local partisans, not to the Anglo-Americans.
"Theft was at an all-time high in the Anglo-US zone."
Sounds like old Nazi propaganda.
One battle the Italians wons without Germany's help: British Somaliland in 1940.
And no, the dictator was NOT popular when he tried to invade Greece and Egypt. The expense of the war in Ethiopia in 1935-36 and the consequent League of Nations sanctions had brought the country's economy to its knees. The dictator had promised that Ethiopia was full of gold, riches, etc. and by 1937 the people were already fed up with useless and expensive wars.
"One battle the Italians wons without Germany's help: British Somaliland in 1940."
And I bet that day is still celebrated in your family, right? LOL
"...welcomed the allies as liberation from fascism". That's one way to call it."
It is not what you call it that is important or how you interpret events that is important. What is important is the truth.
It is not about you or Germany, it is about the Italian people and how they felt - get it?
The truth is that the majority of Italians welcomed the allies as liberators.
Get over it.
"You Germans still don't get what leadership means, do you?"
Definitely not if Leadership means to pay and do what the beggars want. Every time countries like Italy and Greece ask for German Leadership it translates into money.
If you really would accept German Leadership we would not have these endless discussions about the right way forward. If you know everything better, please step up and show some Leadership.
"The dictator had promised that Ethiopia was full of gold, riches, etc. "
You really try hard to find excuses for Italians following Mussolini. Gold & Riches... Same reason why Italy joined the EU & EZ ? Quite revealing. And obviously Italy has not changed a bit.
"some 150,000 partisans took to the field. " Funny, the Italian army sucked but partisans a plenty. Gives you one clear message:
"Theft was at an all-time high in the Anglo-US zone."
Nup. Read this for your enlightment:
"It is not about you or Germany, it is about the Italian people and how they felt - get it?"
Is it ? I thought the topic was me & Germany financing Greece, Italy etc. And I do not feel good about. That's the simple truth.
Get over it.
Italy: 24,000 troops
UK: 4,000 troops
Italian Dead/ Wounded/ Missing: 465/1530
British Dead/ Wounded/ Missing: 38/ 222
The Italians were mighty conquerors.....
You have to choose... either super rich or super poor or something in between. Until now you characterize it according to you needs and do not have a stable opinion.
Eris (Greek: Ἔρις, "Strife") is the Greek goddess of strife and discord, her name being translated into Latin as Discordia.
Surprised ???
"One battle the Italians wons without Germany's help: British Somaliland in 1940."
Celebrated in my family? No.
My father, mother, both grandfathers and uncles were working in factories in Michigan and Ontario during the war. Several other great-uncles had businesses in Perù or Somalia.
Actually, I think the whole incident in British Somaliland demonstrates that the Brits were not really interested in defending Berbera. Italy should have negotiated a deal with France and the UK to stay out of the war in 1939 in exchange for French and British Somaliland - two insignificant bits of their mighty empires that were worth a lot more to Italy than to England or France.
"I thought the topic was me & Germany financing Greece, Italy etc."
Try to stick to the truth. As anybody who reads this thread can see we were ALSO discussing Italy's behavior in WW2.
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