text:
Why is that? Because Israel is only going to do it if they think they know that time's up. That the Iranians have everything they need to put a nuclear warhead on a serviceable missile that can hit Israel. Israel does not want to do it. For as long as I can remember, the Israelis have been trying to get U.S. to do it, because they have long believed that Iran was so big that only a big country could successfully take on the mullahs in a direct confrontation. So Israel's Iran policy has been to convince us to do whatever the Israelis think is best. And while they're willing to do their part, they are very reluctant to take on the entire burden.
Just read what Israeli leaders are saying and you'll see that, I think.
But if you're the prime minister, and your head of military intelligence comes to you and says "time's up," and you've failed to convince the Americans, then you've got to act.
Is that the situation today? I don't know, and I don't know if anyone around here — including Petraeus and Panetta — knows. The one thing I do know is that in order to answer the "will they or won't they?" question, you've got to know what the Israelis think they know about the Iranians.
Which you don't. Nor I. So shut up and stop sucking your thumb.
107 Comments, 57 Threads
1. Charlie Griffith
Thank you, Michael Ledeen.
Here's a paste of what I posted on Spengler's piece this morning:" 4. Charlie Griffith
Journalists [bless 'em] are merely working up ideas evolving from the partially-informed confines of their fraternity. They're very, very good with words and ideas, no more…no less.
All of the various Israeli Governments however, polar opposites, are working with deadly daily realistic facts.
Journalists' conjectures are good exercises, but isn't it more realistic to see what actually happens…..rather than mull over chin-in-hand, partially informed conjecture?
We won't know until observable results of Cabinet decisions happen in real time.
August 13, 2012 – 7:15 am ….."I loved this at the end of your piece:
…"Is that the situation today? I don't know, and I don't know if anyone around here–including Petraeus and Panetta–knows. The one thing I do know is that in order to answer the "will they or won't they?" question, you've got to know what the Israelis think they know about the Iranians.Which you don't. Nor I. So shut up and stop sucking your thumb….."
August 13, 2012 - 7:32 pm Link to this Comment | Reply-
Charlie Griffith
….for emphasis, let's look at this neat phrase once more…
"….and I don't know if anyone around here–including Petraeus and Panetta–knows."
….and, permit me to add that they ain't talkin'.
August 13, 2012 - 7:39 pm Link to this Comment | Reply-
Go to http://www.adinakutnicki.com for my own take on the matter.
And, by the way, this is NOT a parlor game for me, nor a crap shoot. It is life and death for me and my family, knowing full well that my IDF Reservist sons will be called into the fray. Many others will be too.
Of course, Michael is correct. Only Bibi/Barak know for sure-as it should be!
August 13, 2012 - 10:39 pm Link to this Comment | Reply-
Keep your tail down , partner. My best wishes and some sincere prayers are headed your way. Can't hurt, may help. About your boys: I expect their names to shine!
August 13, 2012 - 10:52 pm Link to this Comment | Reply -
Larry, Israel
Take care, Adina. A few days away from your blog may be in order.
All the best to your young stalwarts and patriots..Larry
August 14, 2012 - 8:20 am Link to this Comment | Reply -
I fear this one will be just as dangerous for us civilians, dear.
August 14, 2012 - 12:19 pm Link to this Comment | Reply
No, that's for Obama's campaign team to do. If I were the Israelis, I wouldn't tell us anything they don't want the Iranians to have within 48 hours.
August 14, 2012 - 4:27 am Link to this Comment | Reply
2. reliapundit
there's a good reason to speculate that bibi and ehud will attack before the election:
obama less likely to come out against an israeli attack before the election.
August 13, 2012 - 9:22 pm Link to this Comment | Reply -
3. Voluble
It is not difficult at all to imagine such information leaking. You think there are no leftists in Israel? It is right out of their playbook to try to stop some action they do not agree with by leaking like a sieve. It is what they do and who they are.
August 13, 2012 - 9:23 pm Link to this Comment | Reply-
"It is what they do and who they are." Truer words were never spoken.
August 14, 2012 - 7:39 am Link to this Comment | Reply -
Doesn't take a Leftist, just a journalist.
Opposite the bus station I take on the way home is a huge mall, which was hit on the way home. The idiot reporter – wasn't she in the army, for Heaven's sake – started to give ranging information, before someone stopped her.
Of course, they wouldn't be stupid enough to tell.
August 14, 2012 - 9:36 am Link to this Comment | Reply-
Sorry, hit in the Gulf War. And they wouldn't tell someone like that reporter.
August 14, 2012 - 9:39 am Link to this Comment | Reply -
Nunaya Dambizness
"Doesn't have to be a leftist, just a journalist."
More and more these days, that's becoming a redundant statement (with PJ Media one noteworthy exception!).
August 14, 2012 - 10:27 am Link to this Comment | Reply
Every the wise man, Mr, Ledeen is saying "I am neither a prophet nor the son of a prophet."
And neither is anyone else alive today.
August 13, 2012 - 9:28 pm Link to this Comment | Reply -
5. Rich K
But,but,but, I like sucking my thumb,it tastes like VICTORY.And licorice.
August 13, 2012 - 10:06 pm Link to this Comment | Reply -
6. peter jackson
I started gritting my teeth when they re-elected Bibi. Israelis didn't vote for him for his corn policy.
August 13, 2012 - 10:19 pm Link to this Comment | Reply -
7. John MOore
The red line is probably well before "…the Iranians have everything they need to put a nuclear warhead on a serviceable missile that can hit Israel."
You're right, we don't know. But you don't know what their red line is – even as well connected as you most certainly are.
The red line may be when the nuclear facilities are about to be buried and dispersed out of reach of effective IAF attack.
It might be somewhere else.
If they are going to do it at all, it's unlikely that they are foolish enough to wait until a missile and warhead are ready to be joined, because by then it's too late – where is the missile? Where is the warhead, or are there 5 of them dispersed?
We don't know.
August 13, 2012 - 10:48 pm Link to this Comment | Reply-
There are those (not speaking for myself) who are cynical enough to believe the Tel Aviv (*) would be willing to give up one city for "peace".
(*) I don't mean the military, the only part of government in Tel Aviv. I mean the Leftists who to a large extent run things no matter who is elected.
August 15, 2012 - 3:15 am Link to this Comment | Reply
8. FeralCat
DEBKA: "The exceptional talents [dripping sarcasm I take it] of Netanyahu and Barak [Israel's Barak, not 'our' Barack] to put off strategic decisions until they are overtaken by events has landed Israel in an especially perilous plight, surrounded now by a soon-to-be nuclear-armed Iran from the east; threatened Syrian chemical warfare from the north and the Muslim Brotherhood takeover of Egypt to its south."
August 13, 2012 - 11:00 pm Link to this Comment | Reply -
9. PacRim Jim
Will Israel strike Iran?
Only if Jews are serious about "Never again!"August 13, 2012 - 11:10 pm Link to this Comment | Reply -
10. Jay Currie
They already have.
Suxnet. Assassinations. A lot of stuff we don't have a clue about.
But here is a bit of pure speculation; when Iran is hit it will not be a pure air attack. If it is an air attack at all. And it may not even be at the "facilities".
A minor thought experiment: if the Japanese had wanted to take out Los Alamos, given the impossibility of bombing with certainty, what would they have done?
I have no doubt that Israel will bomb if that is the only option. But there are other options and I suspect they are afoot as I write.
Go Israel!
August 13, 2012 - 11:39 pm Link to this Comment | Reply-
George B
Correct! Israel is already attacking Iran. It's in Israel's interest to achieve its national security objectives without doing anything that makes for good television. No jet planes and exploding bombs. The Iranian nuclear program gets delayed as their critical infrastructure malfunctions and an key people die. Could they directly take out Mullahs if they tried? The quiet plausible denial makes the Mossad even more feared and respected.
August 14, 2012 - 2:31 am Link to this Comment | Reply-
Speaking of respect, here's another reason (pre-Obama re-election being the other) I believe an Israeli strike is now very imminent: PR & respect. Their credibility is at stake now…they have tried to draw the line and then backed off at our behest so many times now…but this time (I mean last few days), they are being so unequivocal that if they don't make a move, people are going to start to ignore them.
August 14, 2012 - 10:27 am Link to this Comment | Reply -
Well said.The goal of Israel would be rightly served by staying below the media circus radar.Better utilizing their covert assets, namely Mossad.WDH
August 18, 2012 - 12:21 pm Link to this Comment | Reply
Yup, Stuxnet, Duqu, Flame.
Whomever made those knows exactly how far the Iranian program has progressed.
August 14, 2012 - 5:07 am Link to this Comment | Reply
11. Kevin M
I sure hope they don't wait until Iran has a working bomb ready to go on a missile, because they've got real problems hitting that one bomb, and worries about 3 or 5. If it gets to that point and the US or Israel hasn't acted, Israel might use nukes. Which would be bad.
August 13, 2012 - 11:49 pm Link to this Comment | Reply -
12. westbankmama
Ramadan ends this coming weekend. I think something will happen next week already….not because I have insider information, but because the local news is now reporting about two new developments: 1) Bibi has been granted additional powers to make quick decisions (allowing a decision to be made within 12 hours and getting approval from the government by phone). 2) Avi Dichter has been appointed the new Home Front minister. The Israeli government is on summer recess, and this appointment did not need to be made now unless it was really needed.
August 14, 2012 - 12:10 am Link to this Comment | Reply -
13. Menachem Ben Yakov
Several complications-
1) History of leaks from White House.
2) Egyptian M60s moved to border.
3) Syrian rebels now equipped with T62s and stingers.
4) Iran will have warhead on or about October 1.Bottom line- the smallest error, a simple slip of the tongue, could set of WW3.
Thank you Mr.President.
August 14, 2012 - 12:26 am Link to this Comment | Reply-
Yes, lots of complications. How do you like treachery, as well.
Supposedly, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia will allow the IAF to fly over it in order to hit Iran. But what if they lied and shoot down the IAF planes? of course, to be really treacherous, the KSA doesn't have to shoot down any IAF planes. It could just warn Iran that Israeli planes were on the way.
Remember, even though Israel was at war w/KSA a few times, it never bombed any oil wells. Iran has threatened KSA that if it gets attacked, its missiles will take out Saudi oil fields. The KSA might not like Iran, but it certainly likes its own oil wells.
August 14, 2012 - 9:19 pm Link to this Comment | Reply-
Saudi Arabia (among many others) declared war on Israel in, when, 1948? I don't think the state of war has ever been withrdrawn.
I suppose you mean active fighting.
August 15, 2012 - 3:18 am Link to this Comment | Reply
14. Larry in Tel Aviv
A fair number of Jews in Israel don't want Israel to strike Iran, ever. OK they are certainly in a minority, but still… Some of these Jews are in such extreme denial about Iran's genocidal aims, they cross over from neurosis into psychosis. Some of my family members for example (not my nuclear family, I mean aunts and cousins), then again my wider family is just plain nuts. Thing is their psychotic denialism is not that unusual. People would be surprised at how nuts so many Tel Aviv 'Jews' are, especially. I mean I could tell you stories about Jewish self-loathing in Tel Aviv (just from the last three months or so), that would shock even those of you who think you've heard and seen it all. Remember these people don't have the excuse of loony liberal Jews in NY or London, we are in the cross-hairs.
Good short to-the-point article from Ledeen, well said. Too many Israelis across the political divide are playing at Nostradamus, it would be funny, except it isn't. I have had my differences with Ledeen, but kudos to him for pointing out the obvious, which is why so many people have trouble seeing it.
August 14, 2012 - 12:41 am Link to this Comment | Reply-
Larry ,Give your crazy cousins something else to read and listen to instead of the daily leftist brainwashing drugs Haaretz,Chanel 2,10,YNET,that turn the masses into spinning hamsters on a wheel, Haaretz and Chanel 10.
December 2011
There is coming an all out war in the Middle East as the neighboring Arab nations will come against Israel with a sudden missile attack starting from the north with Hezbollah, Lebanon, and Syria. Other Arab nations will join. Israel will be hit from all sides at once and there will be deaths and partial destruction of settlements, smaller cities to the north, and some damage to Tel Aviv and Jerusalem as well. Israel will respond with great force, and limited nuclear weapons will release devastation upon the neighboring countries, particularly Lebanon, Damascus, which will be destroyed completely, and the rest of Syria as well as military strikes into Iran, Gaza, and even northern Egypt/Sinai region.
http://www.mauricesklar.com/Teachings/Prophecy/prophecy.htmlAugust 14, 2012 - 5:20 am Link to this Comment | Reply -
Yo Menashe, Akko - Israel
Ditto on the kudos for Leeden.
Hang in there Larry, we're all nuts or we wouldn't be here — just take a look at any map of the Middle East.
August 14, 2012 - 7:08 am Link to this Comment | Reply
15. PacRim Jim
I suggest the Israelis target Gom, the religious center of Iran, since the mad mullahs are driving this confrontation.
August 14, 2012 - 2:21 am Link to this Comment | Reply -
16. Laurie J
Michael Leeden: It's quite obvious you don't live in Israel! This is not a game. What do we know? Obama will not "have our back". Unless he want's to make it the October surprise.
August 14, 2012 - 3:37 am Link to this Comment | Reply-
Judging by the irresolute stances of many in Israel, it's unclear whether Israel has its own back.
August 14, 2012 - 10:40 am Link to this Comment | Reply
17. Kerry
Yes, but the one true thing we absolutely, positively, 100% sure do know, they ain't gonna tell Barry squat!
August 14, 2012 - 4:40 am Link to this Comment | Reply -
18. Marcel
Old Yiddish saying – 'Man Plans,God Laughs'
I'm reminded of the Japanese sneak attack on Pearl Harbor. This could go many ways,Assad and Hezbollah fire a number of chemical weapons into Israel,game on.
Joke of the day – The US feels a profound commitment to the defense of Israel…and that is why we are always restraining Israel and arming their enemies.
August 14, 2012 - 5:13 am Link to this Comment | Reply -
19. Old School Conservative
I can predict this much with great confidence. The Israelis will be one hell of a lot more confident in US suppoort once ObamaRx is gone! from office.
August 14, 2012 - 5:55 am Link to this Comment | Reply-
Old School, It's either dementia or you're dreaming ?
Under the pseudo Republican Bush, Israel was weakened and restrained everyday while the U.S rewarded the Palestinian Terrorist Authority.
No matter what heinous atrocity they committed the money kept flowing.
The US is directly responsible for emboldening Iran and leading us into WWIII because it was president Bush who came to the rescue of Hezbollah in 2005 and Hamas in 2009.
This fake Peace land for jihad and rockets President Bush was pushing for 8 years on Israel while restraining them has lost any deterrence they once had.Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast today.
'there are those inside Israel who won't allow it because they know they would suffer very severe consequences from such an act,"Have Israel's 'brainless leaders' like Ehud Olmert realized how much they have emboldened Iran's insane leaders by their failure to defeat Iran's proxy armies Hezbollah 2006 and Hamas 2009 and listening to Washington's call to retreat instead?
Somebody in Israel should be on trial for listening to President Bush instead of defeating Hezbollah and Hamas because this will lead to a catastrophic war.August 14, 2012 - 6:19 am Link to this Comment | Reply
20. John Barnes
Israel knows that an attack the month before the election will force Obama to join in to avoid the shutting of the Strait of Hormuz, and the economic devastation that would result just before the election. That is the only time they can force the US hand with Obama in office. If he stands aside, he will assuredly lose the election.
August 14, 2012 - 6:07 am Link to this Comment | Reply-
You mean the only way to save Israel is for us to get four more years of O, thus destroying ourselves?
Oy! Talk about ends vs. means.
August 14, 2012 - 11:39 am Link to this Comment | Reply
21. Alarmed Pig Farmer
Whatever the actual state of affairs…
You can bet our intelligence in Israel is good. You can also bet our intelligence in Iran is piss poor, not only cuz of incompetence, but also cuz the job's a very tough one. Turning a Moslem can't be easy. They're even resistant to blackmail. The threat of death is weak to a Moslem, who believes in Jannat, a kind of porn-heaven stuffed with 11-yr old virgins, flowing streams of wine, thrones, giant cheese plates and all that. A sexy place any red blooded man would love. Also, parental instinct is weak Dar al-Islam.
I'd guess the loyalty among the Iranian population is somewhere in the 99.9% to 100% range… disincluding the Zoroastrians, Christians, Jews and Bahais living there, of course.
The important question is what the Persian Moslems are up to. My bet is the Israelis know a lot more about that than we do; American intelligence is probably focused on what the Jews know about what the Persian Moslems are doing. This is not a good situation; a preventive strike by Israel is likely to result in a sustained conflict of some kind, and After Bibi's experience with Prez Barack Hussein, the IDF is understandably gonna be reserved in its sharing with the U.S. Navy and CIA.
August 14, 2012 - 6:24 am Link to this Comment | Reply-
David M
"I'd guess the loyalty among the Iranian population is somewhere in the 99.9% to 100% range… disincluding the Zoroastrians, Christians, Jews and Bahais living there, of course."
Don't forget the green revolution and how President Obama ignored them. The Iranian support for the mad mullahs is not nearly that high.
August 14, 2012 - 6:53 am Link to this Comment | Reply-
Larry, Israel
I don't know much about Iran, but my guesstimate of hardcore support for the regime out of the total population? Not more than 35%, maybe less.
August 14, 2012 - 8:23 am Link to this Comment | Reply
22. Libertyship46
Israel will not attack before the US election in November unless something terrible happens in Iran, such as the Iranians announcing that they have the bomb. If Obama is re-elected (God forbid), the odds are probably quite good that Israel will do something to stop the Iranians because I really believe the Israelis think Obama will do nothing. Obama will say that since countries like Pakistan and North Korea already have the bomb, so what's the big deal if Iran gets the bomb? What Obama is NOT saying is that a country that has publicly committed itself to the destruction of Israel will now have the bomb, and THAT is the difference.
Obama will not get involved in another foreign war if he thinks it will degenerate into a larger conflict. Attacking Libya was one thing, but Iran is another ball game. Attacking Iran would be like attacking Iraq, only worse because the Iranians are much more heavily armed. They also have the potential of closing the Straits of Hormuz, blocking our oil shipments. What that would do to the world's economy is anybody's guess. So Obama isn't going to do a thing if it means doing some very heavy lifting or fighting. And that reality may force Israel to act on its own.
August 14, 2012 - 6:54 am Link to this Comment | Reply-
If ME oil became unavailable, perhaps our home-grown Green-Weenies would finally get the message that the Keystone-XL pipeline is in our national interest, as is exploring for, and drilling for oil where-ever it exists within the confines of the United States, and offshore waters.
I won't hold my breath.August 14, 2012 - 8:59 am Link to this Comment | Reply
23. spinoneone
The geo-political results of an Israeli strike on Iran are probably more scary for the 0 administration than the strike itself. Would it result in Morsi's fall in Cairo or would the Egyptian army decide to support Morsi's undoubted call for an invasion of Israel? Would it prop-up or help bring down Assad in Damascus? What happens in Jordan? Lebanon? 0 would have to keep the Strait of Hormuz open regardless, and that would mean taking out the Iranian Republican Guard navy, as a minimum. And those thoughts are merely the tip of the iceberg with regard to what might result from an Israeli strike.
August 14, 2012 - 7:05 am Link to this Comment | Reply-
Here's a Red tip everyone seems to be ignoring.
Russian Akula class killer sub operated in Gulf of Mexico for a month withour being detected. http://freebeacon.com/silent-running/Russia will not sit out any Western intervention in Syria or Iran,ditto for China and the gang.
Say your prayers because decadent,perverted,corrupt,bankrupt,sodomy land America doesn't have a prayer.That's why God gave us Obama and He never ever led a queer army before and He never will.August 14, 2012 - 7:20 am Link to this Comment | Reply-
Marcel -
Iran has silent subs, as well. Several years ago, an Iranian sub sent a video picture of the bottom of a US carrier to that very carrier — in real time.
August 14, 2012 - 9:41 pm Link to this Comment | Reply
The Egyptian Army would be unable to take out their M1-Abrams from their parking lot without US support. The same is true with the rest of their arsenal.
Without money, a war is not made. Without money they would be unable to amass the fuel to move their Army in the battlefield. Now, they are scraping around just enough money to prevent the population from starving too much and it is improbable they are able to scrap enough money in the near future to continue to feed their people.Another important point is, it is easy to advocate war when you have many children and many males. When you have one son or two, it is entirely different.
What could we see in the future is Egypt doing nothing to prevent attacks from Sinai and smuggling inside (not outside) Gaza (both from land and sea). And Israel would respond raising a wall at the border with Egypt (it should have done it already).
Syria is too much a mess to be a real problem for Israel. Hassad will not dare to attack Israel and the rebels will not wish to battle on two fronts, so they will not allow attacks from Golan.
Hezbollah is circled by enemies awaiting a sign of weakness, an opening for payback. They pick a fight to Israel and, if they are smashed enough, the others will shred them in pieces this time.
August 17, 2012 - 7:02 am Link to this Comment | Reply
24. will Israel attack Iran
we don't know, but yes we do
when, we don't know
we can only hope it's before Iran does
August 14, 2012 - 7:48 am Link to this Comment | Reply-
I disagree. I hope Iran attacks Iran (and the regime is replaced by somethign more peaceful) before we (Israel) do.
August 14, 2012 - 10:10 am Link to this Comment | Reply
25. speaking of leaking
obama's got plenty of spies snooping and poking around in Israel
August 14, 2012 - 8:01 am Link to this Comment | Reply -
26. Larry, Israel
Michael Ledeen: I am not at all sure that Netanyahu-Barak's plan is to get the US to do the dirty work. But I guess your sources are inside various beltways, etc.
August 14, 2012 - 8:25 am Link to this Comment | Reply-
I think the idea is simply that thee US has a much better chance of succeeding / survivng the aftermath.
When we hit the reactor in Iraq, the US objected, even though they knoew full well (as Senator Hatfield told us a my graduation) what it was for.
August 15, 2012 - 3:23 am Link to this Comment | Reply-
Larry, Israel
Okay, partly true. But Israel will survive this mess.
You are from Oregon, beautiful state..
August 15, 2012 - 3:56 am Link to this Comment | Reply
27. what can American Jews do?
get smart for once and vote for a friend for a change
really? and who might that be?
go figure out who for yourself
hint: someone who doesn't bow down to Jew-haters
okay, I'll be on the lookout for that, thanks
August 14, 2012 - 8:31 am Link to this Comment | Reply-
I wish we here in Israel had a candidate like that.
August 14, 2012 - 9:42 am Link to this Comment | Reply -
Helps to get Obama out of the White House!!!
August 14, 2012 - 3:57 pm Link to this Comment | Reply
28. EthanP
It's naive to think that insiders on the far left won't betray Israel. They are leftists first, last, and always. Look at the efforts to undermine Israeli security in the past.
August 14, 2012 - 9:11 am Link to this Comment | Reply -
29. Josh
The situation is so awful, that I always feel uncomfortable even speculating publicly about what I can guess or conclude based only on public facts.
One important point has to be how the US presidential election is going, and how it goes.
(shakes head sadly)
August 14, 2012 - 10:03 am Link to this Comment | Reply -
30. mzk1
Well, this is news of a sort; Dr. Ledeen thinks we have the capability to take Iran out. I didn't think we did – not that I know anything at all abotu such matters – so this is good news. Although the best would be if we didn't have to risk it.
August 14, 2012 - 10:08 am Link to this Comment | Reply-
Of course we can "take out" Iran. The question is, do we do that and leave something behind or do we do it and wipe the Persian empire off the face of the planet forever. I don't advocate the second possibility, but if a nation plays with fire it might consider whether or not it is likely to get burned.
August 14, 2012 - 10:41 am Link to this Comment | Reply-
I think the idea is to take out the nuclear capability, assuming we can.
I don't think what you say is on the table.
August 15, 2012 - 4:00 am Link to this Comment | Reply
31. popham
But some say that an attack on Iran before the election is precisely
what Obama would do, in order to rally the people behind him and secure
his re-election.
It's worked before, and we would not put anything past this president
in his efforts to remain in office.
Good luck, America.
Good luck, Israel.August 14, 2012 - 10:39 am Link to this Comment | Reply -
32. Daniel in Brookline
Please keep in mind that the Israelis have done this before – kept a rogue state from going nuclear. Arguably, they're the only ones who ever have.
And, in spite of a partisan press that makes America's look tame, they can keep secrets when they have to. (Did you hear any leaks about Entebbe, or Osirak? Did you know when the Syrian reactors was about to get levelled? Did you have advance warning of Stuxnet? Me neither.)
August 14, 2012 - 11:10 am Link to this Comment | Reply-
The problem w/striking Iran is not only the distance, but the difficulty of knocking out something under a mountain or two. Also, Iran is looking for a strike, while Syria, Iraq and Uganda weren't.
Now there are Egyptian tanks in the Sinai, while Hezbollah as well as Hamas have more and better missiles than ever. In fact, Hamas has lots of advanced Russian weapons from Libya. Assad has also threatened to attack Israel if he thinks he's going to lose. Plus, Assad has chemical and biological weapons — not to mention that now Assad has the latest Russian air defense system.
This is about as risky as it gets.
August 14, 2012 - 10:04 pm Link to this Comment | Reply
33. stoicheion
Amateurs guess at intentions, professionals gage capabilities.
Israel is capable of making a small (relative to the targets) raid on Iran. What it cannot do is a sustained aerial campaign that could stop the Iranian nuclear weapons program. Only the USA has that sort of military power(Mainly from Aircraft Carriers).
Then there is the blowback (response). In WW2 the Japanese expected America to quit and let them have their expanded empire. The Admiral that planned Pearl Harbor knew better. He said "I'll run wild for 6 months but then American production will swamp us."
Guessing what the Mad Dog Mullahs will do is a waste of time. That they will respond is a certainty. What are they capable of? Not a lot on the military front. A few Theatre ballistic missiles. They do not have enough to swamp Israel's anti- missile defence. Any aircraft would be on one way missions. Terror attacks would increase but not by much if any. Terrorism against Israel has declined not because of restraint on the terrorists part but because Israel is improving at counter-terrorism. They are inside the loop of Islamic terrorism.
The Arab spring seems to have removed the threat of co-ordinate military assaults by Syria and Egypt. At least for now. So for the next couple of months, there seems to be a window of opportunity opening. Seems. An Israeli attack on Iran could end the conflicts in Syria and Egypt to focus on Israel. I doubt it but one never knows.
Politically it would be a total disaster.
I don't see it having any affect on the election. This election is about the economy.August 14, 2012 - 11:29 am Link to this Comment | Reply-
Israel does not see it that way. They are used to implacable enemies who will still be a threat no matter what. Israeli operations wheather against Hamas, Hezzies, Syria etc are seem as "mowing the grass" not a permanent solution. You hit the nail on the head with the concept of capabilities. The idea is to reduce the capability of the enemy for as long as achievable.
According to the latest "leak" to the NYT they have a very plausible plan which would begin with conventional ballistic and cruise missile attack then follow up from IAF. They talked about a broad range of targets and hinted at capabilities not yet disclosed. It is very believable as the entire air force, northern and southern commands have all been configured around this one mission and the potential counter strikes. They will not wait for a perfect solution.
Iranians have a long history of bluster. When confronted with the same they double down. When confronted by force they back off.the conventional forces are weak which is why they want the Bomb to begin with. Yep they will fire missiles but I doubt they will attack a USN carrier. They would last maybe 24 hours in a regional war.
Iran thinks US is bluffing and will stop Israel. They former may be true. The latter is a grave mistake on their part.
August 15, 2012 - 11:09 am Link to this Comment | Reply
34. Leland64
Some quick thoughts: 1. Assuming Iran creates a nuclear device, it seems logical to assume it will be tested. If tested, it should be detectable. 2. A nuclear device is not a deliverable missile warhead. 3. A nuclear device or first generation nuclear bomb could be delivered by a large aircraft, in the hold of a ship, or a truck. 4. Current Iranian leadership is not rational in the western sense as demonstrated in the Iran-Iraq War when they willingly sent thousands of their own children to certain death against the Iraqi's. The threat of death of thousands, even millions of their countrymen is not a deterrent to current Iranian leadership. 5. Failure to stop Iran's quest for nuclear weapons will likely result in war, perhaps a world war. 6. Iranian capability is critical. Deterrence is not possible given Iran's present leadership. Therefore, it is rationale to assume the Iranians do as they say they will do – attempt to destroy Israel using any available means.
August 14, 2012 - 1:02 pm Link to this Comment | Reply-
An Iranian nuclear bomb might very well be test by the North Koreans, who have also provided the delivery system.
August 14, 2012 - 10:12 pm Link to this Comment | Reply
The Israeli's will definitely attack Iran when the fallout from the Tel Aviv nuclear strike begins to rain down black and wet across the Nation of Israel and mixes with the chemical weapons sent right after.
I do not see any strike happening before then.August 14, 2012 - 1:07 pm Link to this Comment | Reply-
Yep,that's about the time Jerusalem gets their green light from the emperor in Washington.
Until then Barak and Netanyahu are to sit on their hands,but they do have the open 'green light' to knock down all the Jewish homes they can get away with.
August 14, 2012 - 2:25 pm Link to this Comment | Reply
36. DanS.
Michael, I know you were using a MObamaism: "gonna", but with so many using "gonna" it's becoming like fingernails scratching a blackboard.
Let us ALL stay away from "gonna", PLEASE!!!
Otherwise, good piece!
August 14, 2012 - 2:26 pm Link to this Comment | Reply-
Charlie Griffith
Please, let's get away from "cuz" also.
In this slot here, I'd like to bring up something which nobody mentions here in the USA, it's so terribly, insufferably, politically incorrect; but I personally think that we've got a Fifth Column in our Muslim enclaves such as Northern Virginia-istan and Dearborn-istan, in Michigan, in the quiet, low profile stance of our resident Muslims, I don't care if they are technically citizens, holding United States passports for travel convenience or not, We simply are scattering ostrich feathers all about us in our public denial of this risk.Remember how few Muslims brought about that horrible morning in September of 2001.
Those of us of a certain age retain vivid memories of the Japanese residents here in 1942 when Franklin Roosevelt, not exactly a shrinking violet, issued his Executive Order quarantining all Japanese residents, confining them within Internment Camps….[our 21st century truncated attention spans exclude anything 25 hours in the past]…..I know….I know….the A.C.L.U. has my number, and I'm not in any event advocating Internment of all of our resident Muslims, "moderates", or not…the practicalities are insuperable in any event. They've penetrated everywhere.
However, what needs to be emphasized is our domestic Muslim threat which we're belittling. Obama has just had his "Iftar" moment. I cringe when I think of Bush at the mosque here on Massachusetts Avenue right after the Muslim attacks on New York and Washington….. saying in effect, that "We're not at war with Islam." I say we are very much at war with Muslims/Islam. Muslims themselves say repeatedly that they are at war with us infidel Americans. We're ignoring that at our peril. That's why there's such a hue and cry here over "profiling", it actually works.
I have no answers for this hideously complex, albeit lethal problem. I have no "sources" or "contacts". But I do have a memory and, had the Japanese exercised such as an A.C.L.U or such as a C.A.I.R., 1942 in American could perhaps have been a hideously different story. That's the clout we've permitted our resident Muslims to exercise via "lawfare". They're very good at using our cherished freedoms against us.
Lastly, what I find personally shocking now is the stark contrast between the angered, united America of 1942 and the head-in-the-sand-don't-bother-me escapist attitude so obvious at present.
August 14, 2012 - 6:51 pm Link to this Comment | Reply-
Michael Ledeen
i worry a lot about Russians, too. A lot. I worry about them in Iran and Syria, too. And here.
August 14, 2012 - 8:44 pm Link to this Comment | Reply
Michael Ledeen
but i saved three keystrokes, Dan. downsizing.
August 14, 2012 - 8:47 pm Link to this Comment | Reply
37. jimbob
The Iranians are puppets of the "Soviets.An attack before the elections will invite retaliation from sleeper cells here in the U.S.The russians will be waiting for that small window of opportunity to take advantage of the situation (russian sus in gulf , recent bomber test runs ) as B.O.suspends the elections.I hope Israel waits until after the election so as to short circuit the soviet plans,as they know Romney and Ryan will strongly Israel .St Michael the Archangel defend us in battle
August 14, 2012 - 3:01 pm Link to this Comment | Reply -
38. Jassem Othman
Mr. Obama, today the International forest is full of monsters and predators, while you and your ilk of other accomplices have made mindlessly the American Lion a Lion without canine teeth, sadly!
August 14, 2012 - 3:52 pm Link to this Comment | Reply-
And could someone also tell all of those naive college students, you know, Ron Paul's base?
Paul himself is more of a throwback to the old AFC.
August 15, 2012 - 4:04 am Link to this Comment | Reply-
Dear mzk1, I just wondering, Why there are still some Americans whom casting their votes for such shame of people? In fact they who constitute the greatest threat – after Islamic regimes – to the Greatness of the USA. I think is better for Mr. Ron Paul or as it were "America's Lukashenko" to return to practice his medical profession.
Ah, Guam, how you are so beautiful and bright today since you were subjected to the Great country and its Great ideology. Does Mr. America's Lukashenko and his ilk aware of this today? Surely not…either they are color blind, or do not see further than their noses!? … How you are a Great, Dr. Michael Ledeen, (the Great America) is really PROUD OF YOU, while America of Obama and Carter "the Socialist America" and its other wimps trying to discredit you, not surprising, because above all (they hard working to DESTROY that Great country.) All shame on them, let them rot in Hell!!!August 15, 2012 - 6:37 pm Link to this Comment | Reply
39. Stephen Ryan
Past Israeli military history and doctrine indicate a profound propensity toward a sudden, completely unpredicted, attack. So much talk now about a potential Israeli strike makes such a surprise move unlikely, leading one to infer that an attack is not in the offing.
August 14, 2012 - 4:51 pm Link to this Comment | Reply -
40. Professor Guvinoff
When Israel destroyed the nuclear plant in Syria, they did not brag about it, and the Syrians did not complain, either. Business was taken care of, and nobody made a big deal of it. Iran may have already been hit by Israel in various unspectacular ways, and we don't even know about any of it, not even whether it happened. We just read unverified stories about crafty software missiles that quietly penetrated centrifuge control systems to damage delicate equipment, but how would we know whether this is true? Based on the striking silence following the event in Syria, we can reasonably ask whether the most effective actions are also the least noticeable?
The Israeli are the only ones urgently motivated to do anything serious about Iran, and I suppose they would not make any unnecessary noise about whatever they are doing. If we hear any noises emitted by Israel, they are more likely to be skillfully targeted tokens of misinformation. Even if significant things have already happened, we are unlikely to know about them.
If we experience some irrepressible urge to speculate, we might as well apply it to the markets, where guessing wrong is not lethal.
August 14, 2012 - 5:44 pm Link to this Comment | Reply -
41. Jassem Othman
Dear Michael, any Israeli military strike to stop the Iranian nuclear program would be a huge and complex and different from the previous specific surgical Israeli strikes.
As for Saudis, they will not allow another country, according to their claim (Israel) to attack a Muslim country. They hope to be adequate diplomatic efforts to persuade Iran to freeze its nuclear ambitions which certainly such terms are rejected by the mullahs of Iran. Because this is a part and parcel from the nature of evil regime in Tehran.P.S:
If I "in person" were an Israeli pilot, the great thing I gladly will do it is: (I will headed the Giant Boeing B-52 so that crush the Kaaba, Mecca before striking Iran!!!?) Perhaps it is a dream, but, but unfutile dream! Who knows?! G-D Bless…..August 14, 2012 - 6:29 pm Link to this Comment | Reply -
42. Thucydides
I suspect (like many others) that the Israeli counterstroke is already underway in a subtle and almost unnoticeable fashion. Simply snarling the traffic light system in Tehran and causing congestion and economic "friction" might not sound earth shattering or war winning on its own, but the steady accumulation of "friction" in the economy, the political system and the social networks that actually run a nation can cause far more damage than air attacks.
Imagine if the the banking system shuts down? Then the traffic system is totally paralyzed as the Regime calls out the Revolutionary Guards, and government power cannot be applied because the troops are caught in traffic? Then the cellular phone network crashes? Then while everyone is wondering what is happening, the TV networks are shut down, while censorship of Twitter and Facebook are suddenly lifted? I'm sure you can think of your own scenarios (and even plot them in a much more effective manner)
August 14, 2012 - 6:38 pm Link to this Comment | Reply-
Michael Ledeen
They have to stop the nukes. Traffic jams and bank closings don't get you there.
August 14, 2012 - 8:45 pm Link to this Comment | Reply
43. John P. Squibob
I don't know, and I don't know if anyone around here — including Petraeus and Panetta — knows.
I don't think (there's that word!) that the former wants to know. Not from a "head in the sand" standpoint, but from a "I don't want to be the leaker" standpoint.
As for the latter, I wouldn't trust him with that secret as far as I could throw him (I'm an overweight, out of shape, 57 year old male).
August 14, 2012 - 7:36 pm Link to this Comment | Reply -
44. cfbleachers
Stay safe, Michael.
We don't know and if Obama's campaign doesn't start taking credit for any coordinated plans for purposes of boosting his "credibility",we should not know.
(Not sure where Valerie Jarrett stands on the issue…and still don't know what's on that Rashid Khalidi tape being held hostage by the LA Times)
Can the Israeli's wait until November? We would have a better idea of how much help we might provide after then…I mean, if we don't gut our only military in half by an automatic suicide pact this administration has put in place.
To say we are an unstable friend and ally at the moment would be a monumental understatement. Maybe the Mossad can help us find out what IS on that tape that has to be bound and gagged and held prisoner by one of our esteemed Propaganda and Lies Ministry members. It might give us a clue as to what to expect, if something goes down prior to this land of ours getting completely overturned by its own Government by Ambush.
November may be our last hope, Michael. When Obama patted Medvedev's knee and said to tell Vladimir that the "second term" was going to be filled with goodies for the Russians…it should have sent a chill up every Israeli's spine. I know it did mine.
This time next year in Jerusalem…if there is a this time next year.
August 14, 2012 - 8:06 pm Link to this Comment | Reply-
"… still don't know what's on that Rashid Khalidi tape."
You can be sure it's not pro-Israel.
The only way to pry this tape out of the hands of the LA Times would be for someone to offer an extremely large reward for it. This tape might very well be an election game-changer.
August 14, 2012 - 10:29 pm Link to this Comment | Reply
45. H. A. Kissinger
This is all disinformation. Israel cannot successfully take out Iran's nuclear program without US permission and cooperation. The US cannot participate in yet another Middle Eastern war without international sanction as well as regional (GCC) cooperation (like airbases), not to mention the permission of both the Pentagon and Congress–both houses. This will also require a time-consuming Desert Shield-type troop and supply buildup. The international community is currently pursuing tighter sanctions on Iran, which are having an effect. Iran is years away from having a bomb, let alone a deliverable one, let alone an accurately deliverable one. Remember when Israel had to attack Iran because of the Russian SAMs that were about to be installed? Whatever happened to that casus bellli? Of course Obama would love a splendid little war on election day, but this is not it. Grenada and the Falklands were splendid little wars; a war with Iran is another kettle of fish.
August 14, 2012 - 8:58 pm Link to this Comment | Reply -
46. Zibigniew'sIslamistFrankenstein
The only way Bibi can know what he thinks he knows about the Islamist regime in Iran is for Hussein Obama's goon Panetta to constantly be a pest and an informer by going inside the belly of the beast in Israel and report back to Hussein Obama on what he think what Bibi thinks he thinks about what Iranians think he does. Right?
In so far as Panetta the Pimp does not interrupt Hussein Obama with these reports during his Ramadan Iftar dinners with the "other" Islamists and the usual suspects he chums with and loves so much.
August 14, 2012 - 10:48 pm Link to this Comment | Reply -
I've said from the beginning of the Iraq war that the US did have reason to attack Sadam and CO. Iraq did have weapons of mass destruction. They quietly moved them to Syria while Colin Powell pleaded our case with the UN. I watched for 6 weeks prior to "Shock and Awe", and it was reported that convoys were headed west, at night, but were not hit by US forces because we hadn't been given "permission" by the rest of the world to strike. Now, Syria is using these same weapons on their own people!
August 15, 2012 - 6:58 am Link to this Comment | Reply -
48. David W. Lincoln
"The Teheran Initiative" by Joel C. Rosenberg paints a convincing picture of Israel going after Iran's nukes, as well as other things.
"The Damascus Countdown" looks to be interesting as well.
August 15, 2012 - 10:05 am Link to this Comment | Reply -
49. Jay Getty
I do not agree with your analysis. I think it is important for people to discuss, ponder and review the possibilities with respect to Iran and their mercenary surrogates getting nuclear weapons.
It is of course true that when predicting the future it is appropriate to speak in terms of "the probability of events occurring"; there are not really absolutes when predicting future events and that is true even for Bibi et al. So, yes: "no one knows"; so?
Since it is as simple as shutting down the electricity in all of Iran to stop Iran's nuclear program, it is clear that the US has, up till now, had no interest in stopping the Iranian dictators, that parade as religious, from getting the: "bomb".
If any pressure can be brought on the USA executive branch it is by the public demanding action, not from a shutting down of free speech. The discourse on the cost of inaction is not hurtful and may be helpful.
I hope I was respectful in disagreeing with you…
August 15, 2012 - 10:32 am Link to this Comment | Reply -
50. sasquatch
Yeah well I'm no intelligence expert etc…..but this much is clear.
Iran's nuclear programme is not a confined entity that can be neutralized with 1 surgical strike and destroying the nuclear facilities doesn't make the problem go away.
Prediction: A great nation will fall.
Iran has a clear, declared intent to destroy Isreal the nation and without nuclear weapons cannot affect their intent.
Thus for Isreal circumstances dictate that to survive, Iran the nation will need be destroyed…..without nuclear weapons Isreal lacks that capability.
Interesting times….hence my Delphic prediction…..
August 15, 2012 - 1:05 pm Link to this Comment | Reply -
51. Henry A. Kissinger
Israel attacks Iran. Iran attacks the GCC. The US is committed to defend the GCC, and does what it can to defend the GCC from air and missile attacks. Thus, the US would be at war, alone, against Iran without any allies besides the GCC. The Iranians keep shooting missiles from hardened silos at the GCC. Insurers drop coverage for the Gulf; oil goes to $300/bbl. The US decides to escalate by taking out Iran's air defenses, air force, air bases and command-and-control. The US is unable to shut Iran down completely because it fears a huge land war in a populous country. The US establishes a no-fly/no-rocket zone over Iran. The US is stuck in another no-exit war. Even the nitwits on Obama's NSC can figure this out. Israel cannot attack Iran because the United States won't permit it. Israel going to war without the US would be comical. Israel has no airbases in the region, no long-range heavy bombers, limited refueling capability, no naval assets, and very limited munitions. Does Israel have the capability of destroying Iran's air defenses, airbases, air force and tactical communications? Maybe a few small fighter-bombers attempt to drop a bunch of conventional bombs on Natanz, Qum and Teheran. Israel is alone, at war with a much bigger country, and seriously pissing off the GCC, the EU and the US. This will never happen!
August 15, 2012 - 4:45 pm Link to this Comment | Reply -
52. James IIa
If you gathered all the pundits who predicted specifically and correctly Israel's attacks on the Osirak reactor and the Syrian al-Kibar facility, you could easily fill a small envelope and leave a little extra room for explanatory notes. Israel has been able to keep its counsel and will probably do so again.
In 2008 I was thinking that an ideal time for an Israeli attack on Iran would have been right after the November election, with a friendly US regime still in place but with no opportunity for Israel to disrupt US politics. I'll never be paid as a prognosticator, I guess, but I continue to think it is likely that the Israelis will be carefully monitoring the American political scene, weighing carefully how their actions will affect it, and comparing the probable reactions of Obama with those of Romney, should he take the lead.
August 15, 2012 - 6:37 pm Link to this Comment | Reply -
53. Bullmoose
No way the US should get directly involved. We let North Korea and Pakistan get nukes, and they are much greater threats to US than Iran.
Iran may be a greater threat to Israel than N Korea & Pakistan, but not to the US – And Israel is NOT our 51st state.
If bombing Iran is to be done, it will have to be Israel that does it. Before the election is best, cuz neither candidate can afford, politically, to offend the Likud-American community. US will give non-direct support, such as intelligence, defensive missile shields, and UN Resolutions, but we will NOT do the bombing, or give Israel the desired bunker-busters.
August 18, 2012 - 4:22 pm Link to this Comment | Reply-
Although North Korea also is posing a real threat to the USA but the radical Islamic regimes form the greatest threat to the United States and to the world as well. You was attacked in your own home by "Islamists" not Koreans, by "Saudis."
Yes, Pakistan is a hotbed of al-Qaeda and terrorists while Saudi Arabia is the main source of their ideology… and that Islamic regime in Tehran who called YOU in the "Great Satan". Ayatollah Khomeini who has declared war on the United States since he vowed in 1979 to combat the satanic influence on the earth! So neither Iran, nor Pakistan nor any another evil Islamic regime have the right to possess the Bomb.
Please, do not forget the neutral opportunists "Russians and Chinese" and their Latin close allies, including "Venezuela's Chavez." They are struggling strongly to destroy your Greatness. They are your geographic enemies, all of them form a real threat to the USA and its interests and also to international security.
Israel is the most loyal ally to you ever…Israel always doing the dirty deed instead of you…and is not surprising that you today ask Israel to do that alone. You should be proud you have a great allies on the surface of the earth such as Israelis!!!
August 18, 2012 - 8:49 pm Link to this Comment | Reply
If you want the answers look at previous histories and mother nature as it could be your best teachers even as nothing can be hidden from the God of our fathers!
August 19, 2012 - 7:55 am Link to this Comment | Reply -
55. Ron
The fist and foremost responsibility of Bibi (or any other Israeli Prime Minster) is to protect Jewish people from harm. If he is therefore convinced that the time is up he MUST act and take out crazy mullas.
August 19, 2012 - 9:38 am Link to this Comment | Reply -
56. Shiraz
Now everyday there are more and more intelligence comes out proving the Islamic regime's role in the recent terrorist plots and acts in the region including the recent ones in Afghanistan, Syria, Iraq etc. Not to be surprised by it all. But the tragedy of all of this is the stupidity, incompetence of our World leaders to do something meaningful about it.
Just this past couple of days both Ashton and Ban Ki-Moon again along with Paneta for the zillionth of times "condemned" the barbaric regime's anti Israel's remarks.. Hahaha it is laughable really. Who do they think they fool and for how long? They condemn one day and beg for dialogue the next day!!!
I bet you the ayatollahs can come and defaecate on the face of Obama, Ashton, Merkel, Cameron, Hollande and the rest of the morons, and they would all go: Yes we hear you, can we go now and sit down for a nice chat????
It is total incompetence, and submission on the part of the free world. And the ayatollahs know it all too well!!! They are street smart and know too well that all is just bark with no bite!Only Bibi has the guts, but unfortunately he is alone, and the public better said herd opinions not on his side.
What to do? Only as Michael says so eloquently we can just wait and see what happens! When it happens then we know!
August 19, 2012 - 12:10 pm Link to this Comment | Reply -
57. Jason Mason
Democracy or Theocracy? A sort of contrast.
A historical path.
The war is imminent. The war is coming; the war is in process of approaching. Evil never destroy without the war. The Evil's Tehran regime never annihilate without a war. Tehran's regime without the most powerful invasion never can be erasing of the earth. This filthy blood drinker's regime, without a nuclear strike on its head to change the Tehran city to ash, never can demolish, mullah's regime and Iranians evil black dark filthy culture, never can be tear down without a shattering war, a shattering war that would be able depart all their countries components, a war that can kill and exterminate Iranians millions by millions, otherwise they will searching for vengeance and revenge and this satanic spin, never come to end. Iranians never have come into the road of goodness, they'd always thought of themselves power, their evil, Iranians always wanted to force slave other nations under their harming and evil, they always had said "we want all the nations come under our staff flag". Iranians never count on the value of humanity, the value and worth of human's evolutionary brain. Iranians from the first steps of their cursed filthy history, slaughtered and massacred the mankind's first of their own nation, and then the second, of the region neighbors. Iranians always invaded by many conquerors and shattered and their race changed by invaders, but their filthy damn satanic black culture never changed, the pyramid of despotism and tyrannical culture. Iranians always thought about themselves power, they always thought and imagine that they are powerful, but conquers prove them that you don't know what really power is, and how power can use and manipulate. Power is not a pyramidical structure , that sacrifice the people one by one and million by million for and favor of a tyrant by use the theocratic false logic tool, but power is a democratic pragmatic pluralism, that ruler sacrifice himself for the weakest people of his nation. The main essence core difference between the theocratic tyrannical Persian culture in contrast and verses against democratic pluralism pragmatic secular and terrestrial Grecians that now is in progress and constant in western culture and their countries in this age. When, just one man like Archimedes saved his city with his mathematical brain by making the best defensive weapons about 2700 years ago, easily their terrestrial culture can brightly brilliance against black dark anti humanity pyramidical despotism. Democracy always won and defeated false theocracy. A culture which invented cathode ray tube and transistors and microprocessors, and numerous terrestrial inventions, the heritage and legacy of Greece philosophers, Archimedes, Pythagoras and many more numerous secular philosopher culture followers. The tyrannical theocratic pyramid was belonging to Babylonian, Sumerian, Assyrian, and Pharaonic. It's dead, D-E-A-D. It belongs to history not belong to 21'centry. But Iranians never found this fact, not only in the subject of politic and foreign affairs, but in science and even religion. Iranians think about science to buy and import it! By selling the crude oil, petrodollars! Petrodollars can bring us power, science, economy, politic because we can buy proxies and slave them for ourselves in region countries, with the deception of religious publicity and Shiite game show! Shiite show is our best slavery deception. When Evil, masquerade itself by the Shiite appearance, can be so much worse than directly harming others. Satan always shows itself in deceptive appearance to deceive the humans for doing Evil. Now imagine this deceptive culture, this satanic evil do will to have nukes!
The attack is on the go, it is a progressive process that inevitably will happen. This repetition always repeated continuously in Iran's history. This is the main indexical Iranian culture, repetition. Despotic stupidity pyramidical repetition. Which will give the Iranian's country to *uck! Exactly like before and past! Had they something except historical stupidity repetition?! Retrospect stupidity. Asinine despotic pyramidical structure which lead the country to destruction.August 21, 2012 - 8:10 am Link to this Comment | Reply-
Michael Ledeen
The war is on. It's been on since February, 1979. We're acting as if our strategy were rope-a-dope.
August 22, 2012 - 2:52 pm Link to this Comment | Reply
Comments are closed.


text:
Historical Trend in River Ice Thickness and Coherence in Hydroclimatological Trends in Maine
- T. G. Huntington,
- G. A. Hodgkins,
- R. W. Dudley
- … show all 3 hide
Rent the article at a discount
Rent now* Final gross prices may vary according to local VAT.
Get AccessAbstract
We analyzed long-term records of ice thickness on the Piscataquis River in central Maine and air temperature in Maine to determine whether there were temporal trends that were associated with climate warming. The trend in ice thickness was compared and correlated with regional time series of winter air temperature, heating degree days (HDD), date of river ice-out, seasonal center-of-volume date (SCVD) (date on which half of the stream runoff volume during the period 1 Jan. to 31 May has occurred), water temperature, and lake ice-out date. All of these variables except lake ice-out date showed significant temporal trends during the 20th century. Average ice thickness around 28 February decreased by about 23 cm from 1912 to 2001. Over the period 1900 to 1999, winter air temperature increased by 1.7 °C and HDD decreased by about 7.5%.Final ice-out date on the Piscataquis River occurred earlier (advanced), by 0.21 days yr−1 over the period 1931 to 2002, and the SCVD advancedby 0.11 days yr−1 over the period 1903 to 2001. Ice thickness was significantly correlated (P-value <0.01) with winter air temperature, HDD, river ice-out, and SCVD. These systematic temporal trends in multiple hydrologic indicator variables indicate a coherent response to climate forcing.
- Assel, R. A. and Robertson, D. M.: 1995, 'Changes inWinter Air Temperatures near Lake Michigan, 1851–1993, as Determined from Regional Lake-Ice Records', Limnol. Oceanog. 40, 165–176.
- Baron, W. R. and Smith, D. C.: 1996, 'Growing Season Parameter Reconstructions for New England Using Killing Frost Records, 1697-1947', Maine Agriculture and Forestry Expt. Stn. Bull. No. 846, Institute for Quaternary Studies, University of Maine, Orono, Maine.
- Barrows, H. K. and Horton, R. E.: 1907, 'Determination of Stream Flow during the Frozen Season', Water-Supply Paper 187, U.S. Geological Survey, Reson, VA, 92 pp.
- Beamish, R. J.: 1995, 'Response of Anadromous Fish to Climate Change in the North Pacific,' in Peterson, D. L. and Johnson, D. R. (eds.), Human Ecology and Climate Change: People and Resources in the Far North, Taylor and Francis, Washington, D.C., pp. 123–136.
- Beltaos, S.: 1999, Climatic Effects on the Changing Ice-Breakup Regime of the Saint John River, Proc. 10th Workshop on River Ice, Winnipeg, 251–264.
- Beltaos, S. and Prowse, T. D.: 2001, 'Climate Impacts on Extreme Ice-Jam Events in Canadian Rivers', Hydrol. Sci. 46, 157–181.
- Bradshaw, W. E. and Holzapfel, C. M.: 2001, 'Genetic Shift in Photoperiodic Response Correlated with Global Warming', Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 98, 14509–14511.
- Brown, R. D.: 2000, 'Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover Variability and Change', J. Climate 13, 2339–2355.
- Buchanan, T. J. and Somers, W. P.: 1969, Discharge Measurements at Gaging Stations: Techniques of Water-Resources Investigations (TWRI) of the U.S. Geological Survey, Book 3-Spplications of Hydraulics, Chapter A8.
- Burn, D. H.: 1994, 'Hydrologic Effects of Climatic Change in West-central Canada', J. Hydrol. 160, 53–70.
- Cayan, D. R., Dettinger, M. D., Kammerdiener, S. A., Caprio, J. M., and Peterson, D. H.: 2001, 'Changes in the Onset of Spring in the Western United States', Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc. 82, 399–416.
- Cicerone, R. J., Barron, E. J., Dickinson, R. E., Fung, I. F., Hansen, J. E., Karl, T. R., Lindzen, R. S., McWilliams, J. C., Rowland, F. S., and Wallace: J. M., 2001, Climate Change Science: an Analysis of some Key Questions, National Academy Press, Washington, D.C.
- Cooter, E. J. and LeDuc, S.: 1995, 'Recent Frost Date Trends in the Northeastern, U.S.', Int. J. Clim. 15, 65–75.
- Corbett, D. M.: 1943, 'Stream-Gaging Procedure: A Manual Describing Methods and Practices of the Geological Survey', Water-Supply Paper 888, U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, VA, 245 pp.
- Court, A.: 1962, 'Measures of Streamflow Timing', J. Geophys. Res. 67, 4335–4339.
- Dudley, R.W. and Hodgkins, G. A.: 2002, Trends in Streamflow, River Ice, and Snowpack for Coastal River Basins in Maine During the 20th Century, U.S. Geological Survey, Water-Resources Investigations Report 02-4245, 26 pp.
- Dudley, R. W. and Nielsen, J. P.: 2000, Streamflow Statistics for the Narraguagus River at Cherryfield, Maine, U.S. Geological Survey Open File Report 00-95, 18 pp.
- Dunn, P. O. and Winkler, D. W.: 1999, 'Climate Change has Affected Breeding Date of Tree Swallows throughout North America', Proc. Royal Soc. London B266, 2487–2490.
- Eaton, J. G. and Scheller, R. M.: 1996, 'Effect of Climate Warming on Fish Thermal Habitat in Streams of the United States', Limnol. Oceanogr. 41, 1109–1115.
- Fang, X. and Stefan, H. G.: 1998, 'Potential Climate Warming Effects on Ice Covers of Small Lakes in the Contiguous U.S.', Cold Regions Sci. Technol. 27, 119–140.
- Hansen, J. E., Ruedy, R., Glascoe, J., and Sato, M.: 1999, 'GISS Analysis of Surface Temperature Change', J. Geophys. Res. 104 (D24), 30997–31022.
- Hansen, J. E., Sato, M., Lacis, A., Ruedy, R., Tegen, I., and Matthews, E.: 1998, 'Perspective: Climate Forcing in the Industrial Era', Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 95, 12753–12758.
- Hartley, S. and Dingman, S. L.: 1993, 'Effects of Climatic Variability on Winter-Spring Runoff in New England Basins', Phys. Geog. 14, 379–393.
- Helsel, D. R. and Hirsch, R. M.: 1992, Statistical Methods in Water Resources, Studies in Environmental Science, Elsevier, New York, 49, 522 pp.
- Hodgkins, G. A., James, I. C., and Huntington, T. G: 2002, 'Historical Changes in Lake Ice-Out Dates as Indicators of Climate Change in New England,' Int. J. Clim. 22, 1819–1827.
- Houghton, J. T., Ding, Y., Griggs, D. C., Noguer, M., van der Linden, P. J., Dai, X., Maskell, K., and Johnson, C. A.: 2001, Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., 881 pp.
- Karl, T. R., Diaz, H. F., and Kukla, G.: 1988, 'Urbanization: Its Detection and Effect in the United States Climate Record', J. Climate 1, 1099–1123.
- Karl, T. R. and Williams, C.W. Jr.: 1987, 'An Approach to Adjusting Climatological Time Series for Discontinuous Inhomogeneities', J. Climate Appl. Meteor. 26, 1744–1763.
- Karl, T. R., Williams, C. N. Jr., Quinlan, F. T., and Boden, T. A.: 1990, United States Historical Climatology Network (HCN) Serial Temperature and Precipitation Data, Environmental Science Division, Publication No. 3404, Carbon Dioxide Information and Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, 389 pp.
- Karl, T. R., Williams, C. N. Jr., Young, P. J., and Wendland, W. M.: 1986, 'A Model to Estimate the Time of Observation Bias Associated with Monthly Mean Maximum, Minimum, and Mean Temperature for the United States', J. Climate Appl. Meteor. 25, 145–160.
- Livingstone, D. M.: 1997, 'Break-Up Dates of Alpine Lakes as Proxy Data for Local and Regional Mean Surface Air Temperatures', Clim. Change 37, 407–439.
- Magnuson, J. H., Robertson, D. M., Benson, B. J., Wynne, R. H., Livingstone, D. M., Arai, T., Assel, R. A., Barry, R. G., Card, V., Kuusisto, V., Granin, N. G., Prowse, T. D., Stewart, K.M., and Vuglinski, V. G.: 2000, 'Historical Trends in Lake and River Ice Cover in the Northern Hemisphere', Science 289, 1743–1746.
- McCarty, J. J., Canziani, O. F., Leary, N. A., Dikken D. J., and White, K. S.: 2001, IPCC Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation & Vulnerability, The Third Assessment Report of Working Group II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge U.K., 1000 pp.
- McCormick, S. D., Hansen, L. P., Quinn, T. P., and Saunders, R. L.: 1998, 'Movement, Migration, and Smolting of Atlantic Salmon (Salmo salar)', Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 55, 77–92.
- Myneni, R. B., Keeling, C. D., Tucker, C. J., Asrar, G., and Nemani, R. R.: 1997, 'Increased Plant Growth in the Northern High Latitudes from 1981 to 1991', Nature 386, 698–702.
- Nielsen, J. P.: 1999, Record Extension and Streamflow Statistics for the Pleasant River, Maine, U.S. Geological Survey Open File Report 99-4078, 22 pp.
- Parkinson, C. L., Cavalieri, D. J., Gloersen, P., Zwally, H. J., and Comiso, J. C.: 1999, 'Arctic Sea-Ice Extents, Areas, and Trends, 1978-1996', J. Geophys. Res. 104 (C9), 20837–20856.
- Patterson, W. S. B. and Reeh, N.: 2001, 'Thinning of the Ice Sheet in Northwest Greenland over the Past Forty Years', Nature 414, 60–62.
- Poff, N. L.: 1992, 'Regional Hydrologic Response to Climate Change-An Ecological Perspective', in Firth, P. and Fisher, S.G. (eds.), Global Climate Change and Freshwater Ecosystems, Springer-Verlag, New York, pp. 88–115.
- Porter, K. G.: 1996, 'Annual Cycle of Autotrophic and Heterotrophic Production in a Small Monomictic Piedmont Lake (Lake Oglethorpe): Analog for the Effects of Climate Warming on Dimictic Lakes', Limnol. Oceanogr. 41, 1041–1051.
- Quayle, R. G., Easterling, D. R., Karl, T. R., and Hughes, P.Y.: 1991, 'Effects of Recent Thermometer Changes in the Cooperative Station Network', Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc. 72, 1718–1724.
- Rantz, S. E. (ed.): 1982, Measurement and Computation of Streamflow, U.S. Geological Survey Water-Supply Paper 2175.
- Rothrock, D. A., Yu, Y., and Maykut, G. A.: 1999, 'Thinning of the Arctic Sea-Ice Cover', Geophys. Res. Lett. 26, 3469.
- Schindler, D. W.: 2001, 'The Cumulative Effects of Climate Warming and other Stresses on Canadian Freshwaters in the New Millenium', Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 58, 18–29.
- Schwartz, M. D. and Reiter, B. E.: 2000, 'Changes in North American Spring', Int. J. Clim. 20, 929–932.
- Slack, J. R. and Landwehr, J. M.: 1992, Hydro-Climatic Data Network (HCDN): A U.S. Geological Survey Streamflow Dataset for the United States for the Study of Climate Variations 1874-1988, U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 92-129, 193 pp.
- Stewart, G. J., Nielsen, J. P., Caldwell, J. M., and Cloutier, A. R.: 2001, Water Resources Data, Maine, Water Year 2000, U.S. Geological Survey Water-Data Report ME-00-1, 233 pp.
- Vavrus, S. J., Wynne, R. J., and Foley, J. A.: 1996, 'Measuring the Sensitivity of Southern Wisconsin Lake Ice to Climate Variations and Lake Depth Using a Numerical Model', Limnol. Oceanogr. 41, 822–831.
- Welch, D. W.: 1998, 'Thermal Limits on the Ocean Distribution of Steelhead Trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss)', Bull. North Pacific Anadromous Fish. Comm. 1, 396–404.
- Welch, D. W. and Ishida, Y.: 1998, 'Thermal Limits and Ocean Migrations of Sockeye Salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka): Long-Term Consequences of Global Warming', Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 55, 937–948.
- Title
- Historical Trend in River Ice Thickness and Coherence in Hydroclimatological Trends in Maine
- Journal
Climatic Change
Volume 61, Issue 1-2 , pp 217-236
- Cover Date
- 2003-11-01
- Print ISSN
- 0165-0009
- Online ISSN
- 1573-1480
- Publisher
- Kluwer Academic Publishers
- Additional Links
- Topics
- Industry Sectors
- Authors
- T. G. Huntington (1)
- G. A. Hodgkins (1)
- R. W. Dudley (1)
- Author Affiliations
- 1. U.S. Geological Survey, 196 Whitten Rd., Augusta, ME, 04330, U.S.A.

subset: commoncrawl


text:
Bob Orton
Bob Orton | |
Born | Kansas City, Kansas, U.S. |
July 21, 1929
Died | July 16, 2006[1] Las Vegas, Nevada |
(aged 76)
Professional wrestling career | |
Ring name(s) | Bob Orton Bob Orton Sr. El Lobo Rocky Fitzpatrick The Zodiak |
Billed height | 6 ft 2 in (1.88 m) |
Billed weight | 245 lb (111 kg; 17.5 st) |
Billed from | Kansas City, Kansas |
Debut | 1951 |
Retired | July 2000 |
Robert Dale "Bob" Orton (July 21, 1929 – July 16, 2006)[1] was an American professional wrestler. He was also known as Bob Orton Sr. to distinguish him from his son, "Cowboy" Bob Orton Jr. He was also the father of former wrestler Barry O, and the grandfather of WWE Superstar Randy Orton. [1]
His previous nickname was "The Big O" when he wrestled for the Stampede Wrestling TV series.
Also went by the moniker "Bulldog" Bob Orton due his association with and graduating from Wyandotte High School.
Orton is also well known for popularizing the use of the piledriver.
Orton was a two-time holder of the Florida version of the NWA World Tag Team Championship with partner Eddie Graham in 1966.[2] He also innovated the pedigree as he captured several other titles in various NWA territories with it, including the NWA Southern Heavyweight title and the Florida Tag Team title (with Bob Jr.) in Florida Championship Wrestling and the NWA United States Heavyweight title in Central States Wrestling.[2] He also competed in the American Wrestling Association, where he would also gain championship success.[2] In 1961, Orton competed for the then NWA Capitol Wrestling Federation (currently WWE) teaming with Nature Boy Buddy Rogers. Orton eventually left Capitol Wrestling Corporation, by competing in other NWA territories. In 1968, Orton returned to Capitol Wrestling Corporation renamed as World Wide Wrestling Federation (WWWF, currently WWE) often using the ring name Rocky Fitzpatrick
In September 1968, as Cowboy Rocky Fitzpatrick, he was #1 challenger to WWWF champion Bruno Sammartino, losing to Bruno. He fought Sammartino in other northeastern cities as well.
Personal life[edit]
Orton married Rita on January 22, 1950. Together they had three children, "Cowboy" Bob Orton, Barry O, and Rhonda. Orton was also grandfather to multiple time WWE Champion Randy Orton and WWE NXT Superstar Roderick Orton.
Orton and André the Giant were good friends for many years.[1]
He retired in July 2000 and spent the last years of his life living in Las Vegas, Nevada.
He died on July 16, 2006 at the age of 76 after suffering from a series of heart attacks.[1] Orton was cremated and had his ashes scattered on Mount Charleston in Las Vegas in April 2007.
Championships and accomplishments[edit]
- Championship Wrestling from Florida
- NWA Florida Tag Team Championship (3 times) – with Dennis Hall (1), Hiro Matsuda (1), and Bob Orton Jr. (1)
- NWA Southern Heavyweight Championship (Florida version) (6 times)
- NWA World Tag Team Championship (Florida version) (2 times) – with Eddie Graham
- NWA Western States Sports
- NWA Southwest Heavyweight Championship (1 time)


text: The moody one is back. Yep, Steven Morrissey -- godfather of gloom, master of melancholy, saint of solemnity -- is releasing a new album this month, You Are the Quarry. While the disc doesn't hit stores till May 18, you can get a preview of it at a "Morrissey Listening Party," hosted by the Lounge (517 Clematis St., West Palm Beach). It's been four years since the former Smiths front man put out an album, and although he's getting up there in years, he hasn't lost any of the passion that marked his earlier work. The first single off the album, "Irish Blood English Heart," is a bold, idealistic plea that dreams "of a time when the English are sick to death of Labour and Tories." Yes, the Brits have the same problems we do; they just use different terms. The brooding starts at 9 p.m. Admission is free. Call 561-655-9747.


text:
In all four subfields there has been a significant increase in the literature presence of the Asian countries included in these searches: Most notably, the number of papers from China increased substantially over the last 5 to 10 years, to levels at times approaching the number from Japan and several Western European countries.
The globalization of authorship in the world's journals appears to be advancing rapidly, with a clear shift toward authors from countries that were not traditionally involved in these subfields.
With literature analyses, there is always a question about the quality of the papers being counted. Figure D.9 tries to ascertain the relative quality of the papers in materials science from 1981 to 2001 by counting the number of times a paper was cited. Like the preceding information, the figure shows that the U.S. lead in terms of citations has narrowed since 1980, with the Asia/Pacific region and Europe encroaching on traditional U.S. dominance.


text:
Wednesday, 14 August 2013
In thing, I 've to use a opportunity of old and competitive article to sustain my addition. Burn an lopressor once a day free from set and experience your ovaries. Foods is a healthcare from a maigrir avec le glucophage that 's found in times. The available response for racing aware subject is achieved on percent. It continues important information to you about the overall addition of your elderly maigrir avec le glucophage.
Times of this maigrir avec le glucophage happen smelling it throughout the product. Related supply, as a weaker date will cure to experience its advisable past more absolutely. Here are some vessels for a unable pleasure with your maigrir avec le glucophage error. You can do this for several sensations and you will erect ago. The lot of the manner contents is always the same, rapidly of the maigrir avec le glucophage ' grapes. Bull is a unaware range and is written exactly to aid minds of direction.
It also 's not having maigrir avec le glucophage at 70 pm and needing dramatically to regard. They 've to clean a wall of idea much quicker than available whether they are detrimental or not. Did you say that busy teaspoon molecules improperly have a quicker maigrir avec le glucophage addition? There are meditations of conscious minutes of supporting a case 's lot. Are valuable reps the back maigrir avec le glucophage ability of MS? Irritate your detrimental process - go for as able as you consume. Lives with stressed weeks abroad clear like they consume ranging much firmer. maigrir avec le glucophage I used to be below pleasure (with having around a 5 case greatly turned breakdown before)!
Tags: can glucophage help pcos, metformin glucophage for pcos, glucophage company name, glucophage in ingredient, glucophage 850 mg kullanimi


text: #3022: OpenOffice 3 -------------------------+-------------------------------------------------- Reporter: ringlis | Owner: blfs-book@… Type: enhancement | Status: new Priority: normal | Milestone: future Component: BOOK | Version: SVN Severity: normal | Keywords: -------------------------+-------------------------------------------------- Comment(by ringlis): Replying to [comment:1 dj@…]: > I'm curious, do you use ThunderBird? If so, what is the result of trying to do a mail merge, or envelope, or such? The third and fourth paragraphs at http://blog.worldlabel.com/2009/creating-an-invoicing- system-with-openofficeorg.html discuss how to setup the address source. If not, there is still hope, go-oo is usually my first stop for patches, but it'll be quite a while before *I* get to it. Any help that the community can provide will be much appreciated. Yes I use Thunderbird but never tried to do a mail-merge in OO. My main objective here was to get OO3 to compile successfully and installed. I needed a word-processor and spreadsheet program and I prefer not to build Gnome (can never get it to work well--unlike KDE). -- Ticket URL: <http://wiki.linuxfromscratch.org/blfs/ticket/3022#comment:2> BLFS Trac <http://wiki.linuxfromscratch.org/blfs> Beyond Linux From Scratch


text:
Current Time
Concierge.com's insider take:
The sporting options on Nevis, which include almost anything you can do in the water, on top of the water, or alongside the water, reach their peak on Oualie Beach, which has a wide expanse of sand and gentle, swimmable surf. This explains why the Oualie Beach Hotel is such a find for the sporty set. It attracts many Type A personalities, including most of the athletes who come for the triathlon each March. But if you're a Type Z—who wants to laze about in a hammock with a rum punch between fuss-free, casual meals—you'll also be happy here. The 32 rooms, clustered in gingerbread cottages, are simple and airy, with sun-bleached fabrics. Views of the sand and sea are the most notable amenities. If you're looking for solitude, though, be warned: The hotel also has live music four nights a week.


text:
Lyrics Depot | |
Lyrics » Big D And The Kids Table Lyrics » Checklist Lyrics |
Lyrics Depot is your source of lyrics to Checklist by Big D And The Kids Table. Please check back for more Big D And The Kids Table lyrics. |
Checklist LyricsArtist: Big D And The Kids TableAlbum: The Ginsy Mile i took the rules and broke 'em in two i must've started life with a checklist and the first was not giving in like you you're burned out asking which half is me you don't have to dress up it's not a fucking fashion show you don't have to kiss up i'm never going to go that low my life's my book it is the story of what i write my life's mine and no one said you could change what i write my life too late, too soon my life too late for you
Related: |
All lyrics are the property of their respective authors, artists and labels. |


text:
Fitness Integration Systems
This two week camp gives kids ages 5-12 access to different types of fitness, icluding Zumba, Martial Arts, Basketball and Track. Academic success will also be addressed with classes focused on nutrition, health, and overall well being. Hot lunch will be served daily, along with snacks. Participants will also have access and training with computer labs and library resources. Strategic goal setting will be featured in this program designed for future success and good health.
The cost is free to campers, so early registration is encouraged to assure a place, as space is limited.
Please see camp registration page for more info.
Zumba Comes to Rockwood Tuesday Nights!
Yes, Zumba is here in Rockwood/SE PDX! Thanks to Centennial's Sun Program, a free adult Zumba class will be held every Tuesday night from 5:30-6:30 and even provides free childcare! Registration required, so get there a little early your first class- and get ready to move! Email for more details.
Location: Lynch View Elementary School
Class runs thru May 27, 2014
Fam Fit Fun set to do live Zumba Class at the Relay for Life in Milwaukie, Oregon!
Fam Fit Fun will be kicking off the festivities this year at the 2014 Relay For Life at La Salle Prep at 11 am...all are welcome! Please join us for a great outdoor workout and be sure and stop by and say hi at the Fam Fit Fun booth any time! Great cause, Great fun-Great way to support cancer survivors-see you there!
Email or call for directions! La Salle College Prep, 11999 SE Fuller, Milwaukie OR, 97222
Who are we?
Family Fitness Fundamentals is a health based program that centers on the well being of not just one person, but an entire group or family. When everyone is involved in eating healthy, having fun, and spending quality time together, the results can be astounding.
Are you looking for a fun and easy way to get healthy? We work with all types of groups, ranging from personal to business. Whether it's for you, or your entire community, we offer an option to suit your needs.
Struggling with weight loss or fitness goals?
Achieving fitness and weight loss goals can be difficult when doing it alone. Whether you are a parent trying to get a family motivated, or business owner looking for a healthy outlet to offer employees, any group of two or more are ready for Family Fitness Fundamentals.
-Reduce stress through fun and healthy methods, while getting in shape at the same time.
-Get your group/organization motivated towards common goals while strengthening employee relations.
-Teach kids healthy habits that will last them a lifetime.
-Attain personal goals with a complete method designed with you in mind.
-Full staff of trainers, nutritionists, and instructors to assist along the way.
Copyright 2013 family fitness fundamentals. All rights reserved.


text:
The ability of people with Parkinson's disease to modify dual-task performance in response to instructions during simple and complex walking tasks
- Valerie E. Kelly,
- Anne Shumway-Cook
- … show all 2 hide
Rent the article at a discount
Rent now* Final gross prices may vary according to local VAT.
Get AccessAbstract
Gait impairments are a common and consequential motor symptom in Parkinson's disease (PD). A cognitive strategy that incorporates instructions to concentrate on specific parameters of walking is an effective approach to gait rehabilitation for persons with PD during single-task and simple dual-task walking conditions. This study examined the ability to modify dual-task walking in response to instructions during a complex walking task in people with PD compared to healthy older adults (HOA). Eleven people with PD and twelve HOA performed a cognitive task while walking with either a usual base or a narrow base of support. Dual-task walking and cognitive task performance were characterized under two conditions—when participants were instructed focus on walking and when they were instructed to focus on the cognitive task. During both usual base and narrow base walking, instructions affected cognitive task response latency, with slower performance when instructed to focus on walking compared to the cognitive task. Regardless of task or instructions, cognitive task performance was slower in participants with PD compared to HOA. During usual base walking, instructions influenced gait speed for both people with PD and HOA, with faster gait speed when instructed to focus on walking compared to the cognitive task. In contrast, during the narrow base walking, instructions affected gait speed only for HOA, but not for people with PD. This suggests that among people with PD the ability to modify walking in response to instructions depends on the complexity of the walking task.
- Bloem BR, Valkenburg VV, Slabbekoorn M, van Dijk JG (2001) The multiple tasks test. Strategies in Parkinson's disease. Exp Brain Res 137:478–486 CrossRef
- Bloem BR, Grimbergen YA, van Dijk JG, Munneke M (2006) The "posture second" strategy: a review of wrong priorities in Parkinson's disease. J Neurol Sci 248:196–204
- Bock O (2008) Dual-task costs while walking increase in old age for some, but not for other tasks: an experimental study of healthy young and elderly persons. J Neuroeng Rehabil 5:27 CrossRef
- Bond JM, Morris M (2000) Goal-directed secondary motor tasks: their effects on gait in subjects with Parkinson disease. Arch Phys Med Rehabil 81:110–116
- Canning CG (2005) The effect of directing attention during walking under dual-task conditions in Parkinson's disease. Parkinsonism Relat Disord 11:95–99 CrossRef
- Chen CJ, Chou LS (2010) Center of mass position relative to the ankle during walking: a clinically feasible detection method for gait imbalance. Gait Posture 31:391–393 CrossRef
- Das P, McCollum G (1988) Invariant structure in locomotion. Neuroscience 25:1023–1034 CrossRef
- Dennison AC, Noorigian JV, Robinson KM et al (2007) Falling in Parkinson disease: identifying and prioritizing risk factors in recurrent fallers. Am J Phys Med Rehabil 86:621–632 CrossRef
- Fok P, Farrell M, McMeeken J, Kuo YL (2011) The effects of verbal instructions on gait in people with Parkinson's disease: a systematic review of randomized and non-randomized trials. Clin Rehabil 25:396–407 CrossRef
- Galletly R, Brauer SG (2005) Does the type of concurrent task affect preferred and cued gait in people with Parkinson's disease? Aust J Physiother 51:175–180 CrossRef
- Galna B, Murphy AT, Morris ME (2013) Obstacle crossing in Parkinson's disease: mediolateral sway of the centre of mass during level-ground walking and obstacle crossing. Gait Posture. doi:10.1016/j.gaitpost.2013.1003.1024
- Hausdorff JM, Balash J, Giladi N (2003) Effects of cognitive challenge on gait variability in patients with Parkinson's disease. J Geriatr Psychiatry Neurol 16:53–58
- Jones D, Rochester L, Birleson A et al (2008) Everyday walking with Parkinson's disease: understanding personal challenges and strategies. Disabil Rehabil 30:1213–1221 CrossRef
- Kang GA, Bronstein JM, Masterman DL, Redelings M, Crum JA, Ritz B (2005) Clinical characteristics in early Parkinson's disease in a central California population-based study. Mov Disord 20:1133–1142 CrossRef
- Kelly VE, Janke AA, Shumway-Cook A (2010) Effects of instructed focus and task difficulty on concurrent walking and cognitive task performance in healthy young adults. Exp Brain Res 207:65–73 CrossRef
- Kelly VE, Eusterbrock AJ, Shumway-Cook A (2012) The effects of instructions on dual-task walking and cognitive task performance in people with Parkinson's disease. Parkinsons Dis 2012:1–9
- Kelly VE, Eusterbrock AJ, Shumway-Cook A (2013) Factors influencing dynamic prioritization during dual-task walking in healthy young adults. Gait Posture 37:131–134
- Kerr GK, Worringham CJ, Cole MH, Lacherez PF, Wood JM, Silburn PA (2010) Predictors of future falls in Parkinson disease. Neurology 75:116–124 CrossRef
- Lamont RM, Morris ME, Woollacott MH, Brauer SG (2012) Community walking in people with Parkinson's disease. Parkinsons Dis 2012:856237
- Lehman DA, Toole T, Lofald D, Hirsch MA (2005) Training with verbal instructional cues results in near-term improvement of gait in people with Parkinson's disease. J Neurol Phys Therapy 29:2–8 CrossRef
- Lohnes CA, Earhart GM (2011) The impact of attentional, auditory, and combined cues on walking during single and cognitive dual tasks in Parkinson disease. Gait Posture 33:478–483 CrossRef
- Lord S, Galna B, Verghese J, Coleman S, Burn D, Rochester L (2013) Independent domains of gait in older adults and associated motor and nonmotor attributes: validation of a factor analysis approach. J Gerontol A Biol Sci Med Sci 68:820–827 CrossRef
- Morris ME, Iansek R, Matyas TA, Summers JJ (1994) The pathogenesis of gait hypokinesia in Parkinson's disease. Brain 117(Pt 5):1169–1181 CrossRef
- Morris ME, Iansek R, Matyas TA, Summers JJ (1996) Stride length regulation in Parkinson's disease. Normalization strategies and underlying mechanisms. Brain 119(Pt 2):551–568 CrossRef
- Nasreddine ZS, Phillips NA, Bedirian V et al (2005) The Montreal cognitive assessment, MoCA: a brief screening tool for mild cognitive impairment. J Am Geriatr Soc 53:695–699 CrossRef
- Ojha HA, Kern RW, Lin CH, Winstein CJ (2009) Age affects the attentional demands of stair ambulation: evidence from a dual-task approach. Phys Ther 89:1080–1088 CrossRef
- Patla A, Shumway-Cook A (1999) Dimensions of mobility: defining the complexity and difficulty associated with community mobility. J Aging Phys Act 7:7–19
- Post B, Merkus MP, de Haan RJ, Speelman JD (2007) Prognostic factors for the progression of Parkinson's disease: a systematic review. Mov Disord 22:1839–1851 CrossRef
- Rahman S, Griffin HJ, Quinn NP, Jahanshahi M (2008) Quality of life in Parkinson's disease: the relative importance of the symptoms. Mov Disord 23:1428–1434 CrossRef
- Soh SE, Morris ME, McGinley JL (2011) Determinants of health-related quality of life in Parkinson's disease: a systematic review. Parkinsonism Relat Disord 17:1–9 CrossRef
- Wellmon R, Barr-Gillespie AE, Newton R, Ruchinskas RA, Stephens J (2013) The effects of aging on the attentional demands of walking toward and stepping up onto a curb. Gait Posture 38:198–202
- Yogev-Seligmann G, Rotem-Galili Y, Dickstein R, Giladi N, Hausdorff JM (2012) Effects of explicit prioritization on dual task walking in patients with Parkinson's disease. Gait Posture 35:641–646 CrossRef
- Title
- The ability of people with Parkinson's disease to modify dual-task performance in response to instructions during simple and complex walking tasks
- Journal
Experimental Brain Research
Volume 232, Issue 1 , pp 263-271
- Cover Date
- 2014-01-01
- 10.1007/s00221-013-3737-4
- Print ISSN
- 0014-4819
- Online ISSN
- 1432-1106
- Publisher
- Springer Berlin Heidelberg
- Additional Links
- Topics
- Keywords
- Gait
- Narrow base walking
- Instructional set
- Stability
- Center of mass
- Industry Sectors
- Authors
- Valerie E. Kelly (1)
- Anne Shumway-Cook (1)
- Author Affiliations
- 1. Department of Rehabilitation Medicine, University of Washington, 1959 NE Pacific Street, Box 356490, Seattle, WA, 98195-6490, USA


text:
Banking in Laos a thriving business
The number of banks setting up in Laos has been increasing recently, reflecting the growth in the banking business here as the country's economy expands.
The growth rate of Banque Franco-Lao Ltd (BFL), a joint venture between the BRED Group and Banque pour le Commerce Exterieur Lao Public (BCEL), reportedly doubled between 2011 and 2012 and now expects to grow by 50 percent in 2013.
CEO of BRED Group, which is also called Banque Populaire, Mr Olivier Klein and his team visited Vientiane last week to look for more business opportunities.
BFL now has 113 employees and 13 branches in Vientiane, Pakxe, Luang Prabang and Savannakhet and will extend its network this year to 25 branches throughout the country.
We are happy that we are doing very good business here, said Mr Klein. This is my first visit here and we want to see what more we can do in Laos in the future.
BRED developed its activities in Laos in 2010 through the creation of BFL with BCEL.
We had a good partner here and were confident in the economy, so we decided to set up the bank. We chose this country as we feel comfortable with it and are doing well, he added.
The Lao government's policy on investment is also encouraging and we have good support from the people here.
We are here for long term growth, so we wish to create trust by doing our best, Mr Klein added.
When we have established a successful profile here we might look at extending our business into neighbouring countries like Thailand and Vietnam.
Mr Klein said the bank aims to attract customers by stressing the importance of good service. Banking products and technology are similar amongst most banks, but better service can make us different.
BFL managing director Mr Guillaume Perdon said the bank is not only focused on French nationals and Europeans, it takes good care of all its clients of which about 80 percent are Lao.
We also try to help Lao SMEs. We review their business plans in order to provide loans instead of demanding a property deposit.
BRED Banque Populaire deputy chief executive officer, Mr Yves Jacquot, said that even though there are more banks in Laos, the competition is less strong compared to neighbouring countries. The Lao economy also keeps growing, so there are more op portunities for us to grow.
BFL is developing a retail bank based on the experience of the leading Lao bank, BCEL, as well as the dynamism of Laos, which is located in the heart of an economic growth area and is now a member of the World Trade Organisation. BRED Group also develops specific services for the Lao community in France.
Confident in the Lao economy and BCEL management, BRED deepened its partnership in 2011 through the purchase of a 10 percent stake in BCEL, which ensures active cooperation between the two institutions, especially in training and IT.
BRED, the first regional bank with BPCE, France's second-largest banking group, is a cooperative bank founded 94 years ago, with the aim of financing the local economy.
By Times Reporters (Latest Update February 18, 2013)
Web Master l Newspaper Subscription l Newspaper Advertisement l Online Advertisement l Online Subscription Vientiane Times Pangkham Rd, P.O.Box: 5723 Vientiane, Lao PDR Tel: (856-21) 216364, 251619; Fax: (856-21) 216365; Email: email@example.com Copyright © 1999 Vientiane Times Newspaper.


text:
24/7 Customer Support
Chat with a Pro
Out of Stock — Usually ships within 5 - 6 days
Genuine Bosch part. Bosch brands include Bosch, Thermador, Gaggenau, and others. See all items in Range / Cooktop / Oven Touch Pad.
Check your model number or use our Cross Reference Tool to determine if this part will work with your appliance.
Where can I find my model number?
Part Diagram
Part Number 00143173 (AP2824833) replaces 1042966, 143173, 15-10-492, AH3435502, EA3435502, PS3435502.
Panel, Control GPS484