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Stage 3a: Developing BAU Scenario | Open Energy Information
Open Energy Info (EERE)
source source History View New Pages Recent Changes All Special Pages Semantic Search/Querying Get Involved Help Apps Datasets Community Login | Sign Up Search Page Edit History Facebook icon Twitter icon » Stage 3a: Developing BAU Scenario Jump to: navigation, search Stage 3 LEDS Home Introduction to Framework Assess current country plans, policies, practices, and capacities Develop_BAU Stage 4: Prioritizing and Planning for Actions Begin execution of implementation plans 1.0. Organizing the LEDS Process 1.1. Institutional Structure for LEDS 1.2. Workplan to Develop the LEDS 1.3. Roles and responsibilities to develop LEDS 2.1. Assess current country plans, policies, practices, and capacities 2.2. Compile lessons learned and good practices from ongoing and previous sustainable development efforts in the country
Develop BAU | Open Energy Information
BAU BAU Jump to: navigation, search Stage 3 LEDS Home Introduction to Framework Assess current country plans, policies, practices, and capacities Develop_BAU Stage 4: Prioritizing and Planning for Actions Begin execution of implementation plans 1.0. Organizing the LEDS Process 1.1. Institutional Structure for LEDS 1.2. Workplan to Develop the LEDS 1.3. Roles and responsibilities to develop LEDS 2.1. Assess current country plans, policies, practices, and capacities 2.2. Compile lessons learned and good practices from ongoing and previous sustainable development efforts in the country 2.3. Assess public and private sector capacity to support initiatives 2.4. Assess and improve the national GHG inventory and other economic and resource data as needed for LEDS development
Stage 3c: Developing and Assessing Low Emissions Development Scenarios |
Stage 3c: Developing and Assessing Low Emissions Development Scenarios Stage 3c: Developing and Assessing Low Emissions Development Scenarios Jump to: navigation, search Stage 3 LEDS Home Introduction to Framework Assess current country plans, policies, practices, and capacities Develop_BAU Stage 4: Prioritizing and Planning for Actions Begin execution of implementation plans 1.0. Organizing the LEDS Process 1.1. Institutional Structure for LEDS 1.2. Workplan to Develop the LEDS 1.3. Roles and responsibilities to develop LEDS 2.1. Assess current country plans, policies, practices, and capacities 2.2. Compile lessons learned and good practices from ongoing and previous sustainable development efforts in the country 2.3. Assess public and private sector capacity to support initiatives 2.4. Assess and improve the national GHG inventory and other
Develop low emissions growth scenarios | Open Energy Information
low emissions growth scenarios low emissions growth scenarios Jump to: navigation, search Stage 3 LEDS Home Introduction to Framework Assess current country plans, policies, practices, and capacities Develop_BAU Stage 4: Prioritizing and Planning for Actions Begin execution of implementation plans 1.0. Organizing the LEDS Process 1.1. Institutional Structure for LEDS 1.2. Workplan to Develop the LEDS 1.3. Roles and responsibilities to develop LEDS 2.1. Assess current country plans, policies, practices, and capacities 2.2. Compile lessons learned and good practices from ongoing and previous sustainable development efforts in the country 2.3. Assess public and private sector capacity to support initiatives 2.4. Assess and improve the national GHG inventory and other economic and resource data as needed for LEDS development
Comments on climate change scenario development
Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)
A short review is presented of progress in climate change scenario development. Sources of uncertainty are discussed. Critical assessment of climate models for their veracity in describing the present climate is considered essential. Methods of deriving ... Keywords: Climate change, Global climate models, Greenhouse effect, Scenarios
A. B. Pittock
Assess business as usual (BAU) scenarios | Open Energy Information
for sector technologies Renewable Energy Technical Potential Toolkit Building Energy Assessment Toolkit Power System Screening and Design Toolkit Land Use Assessment...
The Development of Impact-Oriented Climate Scenarios
Appropriate scenarios of future climate must be developed prior to any assessment of the impacts of climate change. Information needed was examined in consultation with those having experience in scenario use. Most assessors require regional ...
P. J. Robinson; P. L. Finkelstein
Development of Sea Level Rise Scenarios for Climate Change Assessments...
Development of Sea Level Rise Scenarios for Climate Change Assessments of the Mekong Delta, Vietnam Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary Name: Development of Sea Level Rise...
Disrupting digital library development with scenario informed design
In recent years, there has been great interest in scenario-based design and other forms of user-centred design. However, there are many design processes that, often for good reason, remain technology-centred. We present a case study of introducing scenarios ... Keywords: Digital libraries, Scenario based design, Software development processes, Usability evaluation
Ann Blandford; Suzette Keith; Richard Butterworth; Bob Fields; Dominic Furniss
Solar and Wind Energy Utilization and Project Development Scenarios
Utilization and Project Development Scenarios
(Abstract):��Solar and wind energy resources in Ethiopia have not been given due attention in the past. Some of...
NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)
Scenario Scenario HELP Index Summary Scenario References Student Pages A United States Regional Study The 4th and 5th grade gifted and talented students in the Project Idea Plus classes at Highlands School and Mill Street School apparently have just received e-mail from Moscow, Russia! Actually, these two classes are involved in a humanities simulation. Check out these hints for facilitating the unit. Most school district curricula include the traditional United States regional study. This project is an innovative way to cover the same material emphasizing engaged learning with the Internet. It is a unit that integrates social studies and language arts as well as thinking skills. The teachers have planned this project so that their classes will be able to interact using telecommunications. This offers an opportunity for students
Project Project RELATIVITY Scenario HELP Index Summary Scenario Reference Student Pages Introduction: Mr. Brian Wegley is part of a talented science staff at Glenbrook South High School. Glenbrook South High School is set in an educationally supportive and affluent community. The physics staff work in teams teaching physics to over 80% of the student population and are constantly looking for ways to use technology to empower students with the ability to apply learned concepts of physics to their lives. With this goal in mind, the physics staff has instituted a second-semester project which is an engaging, student directed project. It currently runs parallel with a traditionally-formatted, highly-structured physics course and is preceded by many smaller, developmental projects during the first semester. The
SPACE SPACE Scenario HELP Index Summary Scenario Internet Links Student Pages September The students from 7-2 team at Grissom Junior High have started the school year by sending e-mail messages about themselves to sixth graders at a Chicago public school and high school students in Nashville. They have sent a message about how they are looking forward to sharing ideas on astronomy and short biography about Grissom and themselves. They hope to set up a project with the two schools. Other students want to know if other schools around the world could be contacted. The math teacher says she will try to make arrangements but to see if they could come up with some ideas on ways they could contact other schools themselves. Astronomy is part of the seventh grade science curriculum. This year, the
Scenario Scenario Summary Student Page Internet Links Index These are the first few days of the 96 - 97 course and a new list of students has been given to the teacher. Twenty-seven new students will form his class, some with familiar surnames. Most of the students in the bilingual 4th & 5th grade need extra help in some of the subject areas of instruction. Some students just came from another country and have very little educational experiences. Most of them lack the Basic English skills to succeed and compete in a regular classroom. The challenge is there! How being so close to the XXI Century, "The Information Era," will the teacher be able to provide his students with, the necessary skills to succeed in the job market of the future? Fortunately, a few months ago the teacher was
Eastern Gulf Coastal Plain: a scenario for geothermal energy development
DOE Green Energy (OSTI)
A scenario for the development of potential geothermal resources in the Eastern Gulf Coastal Plain states of Mississippi, Alabama and Florida is explained and discussed. A description of the resources and the nature of the potential applications and energy market in this region are given. A ranking of the resources as to their energy content, potential market, etc., is described, and the assumptions and strategy used to generate the scenario are discussed. A more complete report on the detailed aspects involved in the preparation of the development scenario will be issued in the near future.
Not Available
Solar and Wind Energy Utilization and Project Development Scenarios |
Utilization and Project Development Scenarios Utilization and Project Development Scenarios Dataset Summary Description (Abstract): Solar and wind energy resources in Ethiopia have not been given due attention in the past. Some of the primary reasons for under consideration of these resources are lack of awareness of their potential in the country, the role they can have in the overall energy mix and the social benefits associated with them. Knowledge of the exploitable potential of these resources and identification of potential regions for development will help energy planners and developers to incorporate these resources as alternative means of supplying energy by conducting a more accurate techno-economic analysis which leads to more realistic economic projections. (Purpose): The ultimate objective of this study is to produce a document that comprises country background information on solar and wind energy utilization and project scenarios which present solar and wind energy investment opportunities to investors and decision makers. It is an integrated study with specific objectives of resource documentation including analysis of barriers and policies, identification of potential areas for technology promotion, and nationwide aggregation of potentials and benefits of the resource. The
A formal framework for scenario development in support of environmental decision-making
Scenarios are possible future states of the world that represent alternative plausible conditions under different assumptions. Often, scenarios are developed in a context relevant to stakeholders involved in their applications since the evaluation of ... Keywords: Alternative futures, Decision-making, Scenario analysis, Scenario planning, Scenarios, Uncertainty
Mohammed Mahmoud; Yuqiong Liu; Holly Hartmann; Steven Stewart; Thorsten Wagener; Darius Semmens; Robert Stewart; Hoshin Gupta; Damian Dominguez; Francina Dominguez; David Hulse; Rebecca Letcher; Brenda Rashleigh; Court Smith; Roger Street; Jenifer Ticehurst; Mark Twery; Hedwig van Delden; Ruth Waldick; Denis White; Larry Winter
Land-use Scenario Analysis Toolkit | Open Energy Information
Land-use Scenario Analysis Toolkit Land-use Scenario Analysis Toolkit Jump to: navigation, search Stage 3 LEDS Home Introduction to Framework Assess current country plans, policies, practices, and capacities Develop_BAU Stage 4: Prioritizing and Planning for Actions Begin execution of implementation plans 1.0. Organizing the LEDS Process 1.1. Institutional Structure for LEDS 1.2. Workplan to Develop the LEDS 1.3. Roles and responsibilities to develop LEDS 2.1. Assess current country plans, policies, practices, and capacities 2.2. Compile lessons learned and good practices from ongoing and previous sustainable development efforts in the country 2.3. Assess public and private sector capacity to support initiatives 2.4. Assess and improve the national GHG inventory and other economic and resource data as needed for LEDS development
Energy System and Scenario Analysis Toolkit | Open Energy Information
Energy System and Scenario Analysis Toolkit Energy System and Scenario Analysis Toolkit Jump to: navigation, search Stage 3 LEDS Home Introduction to Framework Assess current country plans, policies, practices, and capacities Develop_BAU Stage 4: Prioritizing and Planning for Actions Begin execution of implementation plans 1.0. Organizing the LEDS Process 1.1. Institutional Structure for LEDS 1.2. Workplan to Develop the LEDS 1.3. Roles and responsibilities to develop LEDS 2.1. Assess current country plans, policies, practices, and capacities 2.2. Compile lessons learned and good practices from ongoing and previous sustainable development efforts in the country 2.3. Assess public and private sector capacity to support initiatives 2.4. Assess and improve the national GHG inventory and other economic and resource data as needed for LEDS development
(Redirected from Gateway:International/Energy Scenario Analysis) (Redirected from Gateway:International/Energy Scenario Analysis) Jump to: navigation, search Stage 3 LEDS Home Introduction to Framework Assess current country plans, policies, practices, and capacities Develop_BAU Stage 4: Prioritizing and Planning for Actions Begin execution of implementation plans 1.0. Organizing the LEDS Process 1.1. Institutional Structure for LEDS 1.2. Workplan to Develop the LEDS 1.3. Roles and responsibilities to develop LEDS 2.1. Assess current country plans, policies, practices, and capacities 2.2. Compile lessons learned and good practices from ongoing and previous sustainable development efforts in the country 2.3. Assess public and private sector capacity to support initiatives 2.4. Assess and improve the national GHG inventory and other
Scenario development for water resources planning and watershed management: Methodology and semi-arid region case study
Utilizing the scenario development framework from Mahmoud et al. (2009), a set of scenarios were developed for and applied in the Verde River Watershed in Arizona, USA. Through a scenario definition exercise, three dimensions of future change with respective ... Keywords: Scenario development, Scenario planning, Scenarios, Water resources management, Water resources planning
Mohammed I. Mahmoud; Hoshin V. Gupta; Seshadri Rajagopal
Recent progress in scenario development for the WIPP
The US Department of Energy (DOE) is preparing to request the US Environmental Protection Agency to certify compliance with the radioactive waste disposal standards found in 40 CFR Part 191 for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). The DOE will also need to demonstrate compliance with a number of other State and Federal standards and, in particular, the Land Disposal Restrictions of the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA), 40 CFR Part 268. Demonstrating compliance with these regulations requires an assessment of the long-term performance of the WIPP disposal system. Re-evaluation and extension of past scenario development for the WIPP forms an integral part of the ongoing performance assessment (PA) process.
Galson, D.A. [Galson Sciences Limited, Oakham, Rutland (United Kingdom); Swift, P.N. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States)
Assess in-depth contributions of selected scenarios to goals across sectors
in-depth contributions of selected scenarios to goals across sectors in-depth contributions of selected scenarios to goals across sectors Jump to: navigation, search Stage 3c LEDS Home Introduction to Framework Assess current country plans, policies, practices, and capacities Develop_BAU Stage 4: Prioritizing and Planning for Actions Begin execution of implementation plans 1.0. Organizing the LEDS Process 1.1. Institutional Structure for LEDS 1.2. Workplan to Develop the LEDS 1.3. Roles and responsibilities to develop LEDS 2.1. Assess current country plans, policies, practices, and capacities 2.2. Compile lessons learned and good practices from ongoing and previous sustainable development efforts in the country 2.3. Assess public and private sector capacity to support initiatives 2.4. Assess and improve the national GHG inventory and other
Development of Digital Mock-Up for the Assessment of Dismantling Scenarios
As the number of superannuated research reactors and nuclear power plants increase, dismantling nuclear power facilities has become a big issue. However, decommissioning a nuclear facility is still a costly and possibly hazardous task. So prior to an actual decommission, what should be done foremost is to establish a proper procedure. Due to the fact that a significant difference in cost, exposure to a radiation, and safety might occur, a proper procedure is imperative for the entire engineering process. The purpose of this paper is to develop a system for evaluating the decommissioning scenarios logically and systematically. So a digital mockup system with functions such as a dismantling schedule, decommissioning costs, wastes, worker's exposure dose, and a radiation distribution was developed. Also on the basis of the quantitative information calculated from a DMU system and the data evaluated by decommissioning experts about qualitatively evaluating the items, the best decommissioning scenarios were established by using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method. Finally, the DMU was implemented in the thermal column of KRR-1 and adequate scenarios were provided after comparing and analyzing the two scenarios. In this paper, we developed the virtual environment of KRR-1 by using computer graphic technology and simulating the dismantling processes. The data-computing modules were also developed for quantitatively comparing the decommissioning scenarios. The decommissioning DMU system was integrated with both the VE system and the data-computing modules. In addition, we presented a decision-making method for selecting the best decommissioning scenario through the AHP. So the scenarios can be evaluated logically and quantitatively through the decommissioning DMU. As an implementation of the AHP, the plasma cutting scenario and the nibbler cutting scenario of the thermal column were prioritized. The fact that the plasma cutting scenario ranked the better than the nibbler cutting scenario is that the plasma scenario mostly got the higher scores than the nibbler scenario in the decommissioning cost and safety sections that have high weighting factors. Finally we decided that the plasma cutting scenario is appropriate to dismantle the thermal column. This study has a great meaning in that it can present a reliable scenario through the decommissioning DMU system while this work had only been done through a subjective evaluation in the past. The DMU system will be applied to the KRR-1 decommissioning project to obtain the best scenarios. We believe it will be a useful engineering tool for other nuclear facility decommissioning.
Kim, Sung-Kyun; Park, Hee-Sung; Lee, Kune-Woo; Jung, Chong-Hun [150, Dukjin-Dong, Yuseong-Gu, Daejeon, 305-353 (Korea, Republic of)
Scenarios for Benefits Analysis of Energy Research, Development,Demonstration and Deployment
SciTech Connect
For at least the last decade, evaluation of the benefits of research, development, demonstration, and deployment (RD3) by the U.S. Department of Energy has been conducted using deterministic forecasts that unrealistically presume we can precisely foresee our future 10, 25,or even 50 years hence. This effort tries, in a modest way, to begin a process of recognition that the reality of our energy future is rather one rife with uncertainty. The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is used by the Department of Energy's Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EE) and Fossil Energy (FE) for their RD3 benefits evaluation. In order to begin scoping out the uncertainty in these deterministic forecasts, EE and FE designed two futures that differ significantly from the basic NEMS forecast. A High Fuel Price Scenario and a Carbon Cap Scenario were envisioned to forecast alternative futures and the associated benefits. Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) implemented these scenarios into its version of NEMS,NEMS-LBNL, in late 2004, and the Energy Information Agency created six scenarios for FE in early 2005. The creation and implementation of the EE-FE scenarios are explained in this report. Both a Carbon Cap Scenario and a High Fuel Price Scenarios were implemented into the NEMS-LBNL. EIA subsequently modeled similar scenarios using NEMS. While the EIA and LBNL implementations were in some ways rather different, their forecasts do not significantly diverge. Compared to the Reference Scenario, the High Fuel Price Scenario reduces energy consumption by 4 percent in 2025, while in the EIA fuel price scenario (known as Scenario 4) reduction from its corresponding reference scenario (known as Scenario 0) in 2025 is marginal. Nonetheless, the 4 percent demand reduction does not lead to other cascading effects that would significantly differentiate the two scenarios. The LBNL and EIA carbon scenarios were mostly identical. The only major difference was that LBNL started working with the AEO 2004NEMS code and EIA was using AEO 2005 NEMS code. Unlike the High Price Scenario the Carbon Cap scenario gives a radically different forecast than the Reference Scenario. NEMS-LBNL proved that it can handle these alternative scenarios. However, results are price inelastic (for both oil and natural gas prices) within the price range evaluated. Perhaps even higher price paths would lead to a distinctly different forecast than the Reference Scenario. On the other hand, the Carbon Cap Scenario behaves more like an alternative future. The future in the Carbon Cap Scenario has higher electricity prices, reduced driving, more renewable capacity, and reduced energy consumption. The next step for this work is to evaluate the EE benefits under each of the three scenarios. Comparing those three sets of predicted benefits will indicate how much uncertainty is inherent within this sort of deterministic forecasting.
Gumerman, Etan; Marnay, Chris
On the Development of Regional Climatic Scenarios for Policy-Oriented Climatic-Impact Assessment
A review on the development of climatic scenarios related to policy-oriented assessment of the impact of climatic variations is presented. It seeks to provide background information needed to evaluate the extent to which existing regional ...
Peter J. Lamb
LEDSGP/Transportation Toolkit/Key Actions/Develop Alternative Scenarios |
Develop Alternative Scenarios Develop Alternative Scenarios < LEDSGP | Transportation Toolkit | Key Actions(Redirected from Transportation Toolkit/Key Actions/Develop Alternative Scenarios) Jump to: navigation, search LEDSGP Logo.png Transportation Toolkit Home Tools Training Contacts Key Actions for Low-Emission Development in Transportation Although no single approach or fixed process exists for low-emission development strategies (LEDS), the following key actions are necessary steps for implementing LEDS in the transportation sector. Undertaking these actions requires flexibility to adapt to dynamic societal conditions in a way that complements existing climate and development goals in other sectors. Planners, researchers, and decision-makers should customize this LEDS implementation framework for the specific conditions of their transport
Getting to necessary and sufficient-developing accident scenarios for risk assessment
This paper presents a simple, systematic approach for developing accident scenarios using generic accident types. Result is a necessary and sufficient set of accident scenarios that can be used to establish the safety envelope for a facility or operation. Us of this approach along with the methodology of SAND95-0320 will yield more consistent accident analyses between facilities and provide a sound basis for allocating limited risk reduction resources.
Mahn, J.A.
The implications of future building scenarios for long-term building energy research and development
This report presents a discussion of alternative future scenarios of the building environment to the year 2010 and assesses the implications these scenarios present for long-term building energy R and D. The scenarios and energy R and D implications derived from them are intended to serve as the basis from which a strategic plan can be developed for the management of R and D programs conducted by the Office of Buildings and Community Systems, US Department of Energy. The scenarios and analysis presented here have relevance not only for government R and D programs; on the contrary, it is hoped that the results of this effort will be of interest and useful to researchers in both private and public sector organizations that deal with building energy R and D. Making R and D decisions today based on an analysis that attempts to delineate the nexus of events 25 years in the future are clearly decisions made in the face of uncertainty. Yet, the effective management of R and D programs requires a future-directed understanding of markets, technological developments, and environmental factors, as well as their interactions. The analysis presented in this report is designed to serve that need. Although the probability of any particular scenario actually occurring is uncertain, the scenarios to be presented are sufficiently robust to set bounds within which to examine the interaction of forces that will shape the future building environment.
Flynn, W.T.
Scenario development for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant: Building confidence in the assessment
Scenario development is part of the iterative performance assessment (PA) process for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). Scenario development for the WIPP has been the subject of intense external review and is certain to be the subject of continued scrutiny as the project proceeds toward regulatory compliance. The principal means of increasing confidence in this aspect of the PA will be through the use of the systematic and thorough procedure toward developing the scenarios and conceptual models on which the assessment is to be based. Early and ongoing interaction with project reviewers can assist with confidence building. Quality of argument and clarity of presentation in PA will be of key concern. Appropriate tools are required for documenting and tracking assumptions, through a single assessment phase, and between iterative assessment phases. Risks associated with future human actions are of particular concern to the WIPP project, and international consensus on the principles for incorporation of future human actions in assessments would be valuable.
Galson, D.A.; Swift, P.N.
Electric and Hybrid Vehicle System Research and Development Project: Hybrid Vehicle Potential Assessment. Volume VIII. Scenario generation
Scenarios are described which have been generated in support of the Hybrid Vehicle Potential Assessment Task under the JPL Electric and Hybrid Vehicle Systems Research and Development Project. The primary function of the scenario generation is to develop a set of consistent and credible forecasts required to estimate the potential impact of hybrid vehicles on future petroleum consumption in the USA, given a set of specific electric, hybrid and conventional vehicle designs. The forecasts are limited to the next 32 years (1978 to 2010. The four major areas of concern are: population and vehicle fleet size; travel patterns and vehicle fleet mix; conventional vehicle technology (Otto baseline); battery technology; and prices. The forecasts have been generated to reflect two baseline scenarios, a Petroleum Conservation Scenario (Scenario A) and an Energy Conservation Scenario (Scenario B). The primary assumption in Scenario A is higher gasoline prices than in Scenario B. This should result in less travel per car and an increased demand for smaller and more fuel efficient cars (compared to Scenario B). In Scenario B the primary assumption is higher prices on cars (new as well as used) than in Scenario A. This should lead to less cars (compared to Scenario A) and a shift to other modes of transportation.
Leschly, K.O.
Open government in policy development: from collaborative scenario texts to formal policy models
The technical capacities of service offers for e-government and e-participation have considerably progressed over the last years. Yet, the principles of good governance are still not well implemented, especially when it comes to policy development. Governments ... Keywords: e-governance, e-government, open collaboration, policy modeling, scenario generation
Maria A. Wimmer
Development of Burning Plasma and Advanced Scenarios in the DIII-D Tokamak
Significant progress in the development of burning plasma scenarios, steady-state scenarios at high fusion performance, and basic tokamak physics has been made by the DIII-D Team. Discharges similar to the ITER baseline scenario have demonstrated normalized fusion performance nearly 50% higher than required for Q = 10 in ITER, under stationary conditions. Discharges that extrapolate to Q {approx} 10 for longer than one hour in ITER at reduced current have also been demonstrated in DIII-D under stationary conditions. Proof of high fusion performance with full noninductive operation has been obtained. Underlying this work are studies validating approaches to confinement extrapolation, disruption avoidance and mitigation, tritium retention, ELM avoidance, and operation above the no-wall pressure limit. In addition, the unique capabilities of the DIII-D facility have advanced studies of the sawtooth instability with unprecedented time and space resolution, threshold behavior in the electron heat transport, and rotation in plasmas in the absence of external torque.
Luce, T C
Development of Sea Level Rise Scenarios for Climate Change Assessments of
Development of Sea Level Rise Scenarios for Climate Change Assessments of Development of Sea Level Rise Scenarios for Climate Change Assessments of the Mekong Delta, Vietnam Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Development of Sea Level Rise Scenarios for Climate Change Assessments of the Mekong Delta, Vietnam Agency/Company /Organization: United States Geological Survey Sector: Land, Water, Climate Topics: Baseline projection, GHG inventory, Co-benefits assessment, Background analysis Resource Type: Publications Website: pubs.usgs.gov/of/2010/1165/ Country: Vietnam UN Region: South-Eastern Asia Coordinates: 14.058324°, 108.277199° Loading map... {"minzoom":false,"mappingservice":"googlemaps3","type":"ROADMAP","zoom":14,"types":["ROADMAP","SATELLITE","HYBRID","TERRAIN"],"geoservice":"google","maxzoom":false,"width":"600px","height":"350px","centre":false,"title":"","label":"","icon":"","visitedicon":"","lines":[],"polygons":[],"circles":[],"rectangles":[],"copycoords":false,"static":false,"wmsoverlay":"","layers":[],"controls":["pan","zoom","type","scale","streetview"],"zoomstyle":"DEFAULT","typestyle":"DEFAULT","autoinfowindows":false,"kml":[],"gkml":[],"fusiontables":[],"resizable":false,"tilt":0,"kmlrezoom":false,"poi":true,"imageoverlays":[],"markercluster":false,"searchmarkers":"","locations":[{"text":"","title":"","link":null,"lat":14.058324,"lon":108.277199,"alt":0,"address":"","icon":"","group":"","inlineLabel":"","visitedicon":""}]}
Comparative efficacy of compost, poultry litter, IPM Lab Biopesticide and BAU-Biofungicde in controlling early blight of tomato
E-Print Network (OSTI)
Compost, poultry litter, IPM Lab Biopesticide and BAU-Biofungicide, either alone or in combinations, were assessed for their effect in controlling early blight disease, and on growth and yield parameters of tomato. The lowest early blight incidence and severity were recorded in T13 (compost tea + poultry litter extract + BAU-Bio-fungicide) followed by T12 (compost tea + poultry litter extract + IPM Lab Biopesticide). Early blight incidence and severity were observed lower in case of both single and combined applications of compost, poultry litter, IPM lab Biopesticide and BAU-Biofungicide. Besides the lowest early blight infection, T13 also yielded the highest plant height, number of secondary branches per plant, number of fruits per plant, and yield of tomato per hectare.
S. M. E. Kabir; M. R. Islam; M. M. R. Khan; I. Hossain
source source History View New Pages Recent Changes All Special Pages Semantic Search/Querying Get Involved Help Apps Datasets Community Login | Sign Up Search Page Edit History Facebook icon Twitter icon » LEDSGP/Transportation Toolkit/Key Actions/Develop Alternative Scenarios < LEDSGP | Transportation Toolkit | Key Actions Jump to: navigation, search LEDSGP Logo.png Transportation Toolkit Home Tools Training Contacts Key Actions for Low-Emission Development in Transportation Although no single approach or fixed process exists for low emission development strategies (LEDS), the following key actions are necessary steps for implementing LEDS in the transportation sector. Undertaking these actions requires flexibility to adapt to dynamic societal conditions in a way that complements existing climate and development goals in other
The Influence on Climate Change of Differing Scenarios for Future Development Analyzed Using the MIT Integrated Global System Model
A wide variety of scenarios for future development have played significant roles in climate policy discussions. This paper presents projections of greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, sea level rise due to thermal expansion ...
Prinn, Ronald G.
Scenarios for Benefits Analysis of Energy Research, Development, Demonstration and Deployment
18 Figure 7 Total Non-Renewable Energy24 Figure 17 Total Non-Renewable EnergyFigure 31 Total Non-Renewable Energy Expenses in Scenarios
Oil Prices.of Figures and Tables Figure 1. World Oil Price Trajectory31 Figure 27 World Oil Price in Scenarios 0, 4 and
Progress on advanced tokamak and steady-state scenario development on DIII-D and NSTX
Advanced tokamak (AT) research seeks to develop steady-state operating scenarios for ITER and other future devices from a demonstrated scientific basis. Normalized target parameters for steady-state operation on ITER are 100% non-inductive current operation with a bootstrap current fraction f(BS) >= 60%, q(95) similar to 4-5 and G = beta H-N(scaling)/q(95)(2) >= 0.3. Progress in realizing such plasmas is considered in terms of the development of plasma control capabilities and scientific understanding, leading to improved AT performance. NSTX has demonstrated active resistive wall mode stabilization with low, ITER-relevant, rotation rates below the critical value required for passive stabilization. On DIII-D, experimental observations and GYRO simulations indicate that ion internal transport barrier (ITB) formation at rational-q surfaces is due to equilibrium zonal flows generating high local E x B shear levels. In addition, stability modelling for DIII-D indicates a path to operation at beta N >= 4 with q(min) >= 2, using broad, hollow current profiles to increase the ideal wall stability limit. Both NSTX and DIII-D have optimized plasma performance and expanded AT operational limits. NSTX now has long-pulse, high performance discharges meeting the normalized targets for an spherical torus-based component test facility. DIII-D has developed sustained discharges combining high beta and ITBs, with performance approaching levels required for AT reactor concepts, e. g. beta(N) = 4, H-89 = 2.5, with f(BS) > 60%. Most importantly, DIII-D has developed ITER steady-state demonstration discharges, simultaneously meeting the targets for steady-state Q >= 5 operation on ITER set out above, substantially increasing confidence in ITER meeting its steady-state performance objective.
Doyle, E. J. [University of California, Los Angeles; Peng, Yueng Kay Martin [ORNL
A roadmap for the development ATW technology: Systems scenarios and integration
As requested by the US Congress, a roadmap has been established for development of ATW Technology. The roadmap defines a reference system along with preferred technologies which require further development to reduce technical risk, associated deployment scenarios, and a detailed plan of necessary R and D to support implementation of this technology. Also, the potential for international collaboration is discussed which has the potential to reduce the cost of the program. In addition, institutional issues are described that must be addressed in order to successfully pursue this technology, and the benefits resulting from full implementation are discussed. This report uses as its reference a fast spectrum liquid metal cooled system. Although Lead-Bismuth Eutectic is the preferred option, sodium coolant is chosen as the reference (backup) technology because it represents the lowest technical risk and an excellent basis for estimating the life cycle cost of the systems exists in the work carried out under DOE's ALMR (PRISM) program. Metal fuel and associated pyrochemical treatment is assumed. Similarly a linear accelerator has been adopted as the reference. A reference ATW plant was established to ensure consistent discussion of technical and life cycle cost issues. Over 60 years of operation, the reference ATW plant would process about 10,000 tn of spent nuclear reactor fuel. This is in comparison to the current inventory of about 40,000 tn of spent fuel and the projected inventory of about 86,000 tn of spent fuel if all currently licensed nuclear power plants run until their license expire. The reference ATW plant was used together with an assumed scenario of no new nuclear plant orders in the US to generate the deployment scenario for ATW. In the R and D roadmap, key technical issues are identified and timescales proposed for the resolution of these issues. For the accelerator the main issue is the achievement of the necessary reliability in operation. To avoid frequent thermal transients and maintain grid stability the accelerator must reach levels of performance never previously required. For the target material the main technical choice is between solid or liquid targets. This issue is interlocked with the choice of coolant. Lead-Bismuth eutectic is potentially a superior choice for both these missions but represents a path with greater technical risk. For the blanket metal fuel has been selected. The reference method of processing of spent fuel from LWRs to provide the input material for ATW is chosen to be aqueous because of the large quantity of uranium that needs to be brought to a state that it can be treated as Class C waste. Again this is the path of least technical risk although the pyrometallurgical option will be pursued as an alternative. Processing of the fuel after irradiation in ATW will be undertaken using pyrometallurgical methods. The transmutation of Tc and I represents a special research issue and various options will be pursued to achieve these goals. Finally the system as a whole will need optimization from a reactivity and power control perspective. Varying accelerator power is feasible but can lead to overdesign of the accelerator; other options are movable control rods, burnable poison rods, and adaptations of the fuel management strategy.
Hill, D.; Van Tuyle, G.; Beller, D. [and others
Off-axis Neutral Beam Current Drive for Advanced Scenario Development in DIII-D
Modification of the two existing DIII-D neutral beam lines is proposed to allow vertical steering to provide off-axis neutral beam current drive (NBCD) as far off-axis as half the plasma radius. New calculations indicate very good current drive with good localization off-axis as long as the toroidal magnetic field, B{sub T}, and the plasma current, I{sub p}, are in the same direction (for a beam steered downward). The effects of helicity can be large: e.g., ITER off-axis NBCD can be increased by more than 20% if the B{sub T} direction is reversed. This prediction has been tested by an off-axis NBCD experiment using reduced size plasmas that are vertically shifted with the existing NBI on DIII-D. The existence of off-axis NBCD is evident in sawtooth and internal inductance behavior. By shifting the plasma upward or downward, or by changing the sign of the toroidal field, measured off-axis NBCD profiles, determined from MSE data, are consistent with predicted differences (40%-45%) arising from the NBI orientation with respect to the magnetic field lines. Modification of the DIII-D NB system will strongly support scenario development for ITER and future tokamaks as well as providing flexible scientific tools for understanding transport, energetic particles and heating and current drive.
Murakami, M; Park, J; Petty, C; Luce, T; Heidbrink, W; Osborne, T; Wade, M; Austin, M; Brooks, N; Budny, R; Challis, C; DeBoo, J; deGrassie, J; Ferron, J; Gohil, P; Hobirk, J; Holcomb, C; Hollmann, E; Hong, R; Hyatt, A; Lohr, J; Lanctot, M; Makowski, M; McCune, D; Politzer, P; Prater, R; John, H S; Suzuki, T; West, W; Unterberg, E; Van Zeeland, M; Yu, J
Battery Standard Scenario
Scenario: Fast Tracking a Battery Standard. ... with developing a new standard specifying quality controls for the development of batteries used in ...
PERSPECTIVES Scenarios &
Buildings Transport Industry Transformation Power Generation ACT Scenarios 2050 +137% #12;INTERNATIONAL Buildings Transport Industry Transformation Power Generation ACT Scenarios 2050 +137% +6% #12;INTERNATIONAL Baseline 2030 Baseline 2050 Map No CCS Other Buildings Transport Industry Transformation Power Generation
Addressing an Uncertain Future Using Scenario Analysis
The Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) has had a longstanding goal of introducing uncertainty into the analysis it routinely conducts in compliance with the Government Performance and Results Act (GPRA) and for strategic management purposes. The need to introduce some treatment of uncertainty arises both because it would be good general management practice, and because intuitively many of the technologies under development by EERE have a considerable advantage in an uncertain world. For example, an expected kWh output from a wind generator in a future year, which is not exposed to volatile and unpredictable fuel prices, should be truly worth more than an equivalent kWh from an alternative fossil fuel fired technology. Indeed, analysts have attempted to measure this value by comparing the prices observed in fixed-price natural gas contracts compared to ones in which buyers are exposed to market prices (see Bolinger, Wiser, and Golove and (2004)). In addition to the routine reasons for exploring uncertainty given above, the history of energy markets appears to have exhibited infrequent, but troubling, regime shifts, i.e., historic turning points at which the center of gravity or fundamental nature of the system appears to have abruptly shifted. Figure 1 below shows an estimate of how the history of natural gas fired generating costs has evolved over the last three decades. The costs shown incorporate both the well-head gas price and an estimate of how improving generation technology has gradually tended to lower costs. The purpose of this paper is to explore scenario analysis as a method for introducing uncertainty into EERE's forecasting in a manner consistent with the preceding observation. The two questions are how could it be done, and what is its academic basis, if any. Despite the interest in uncertainty methods, applying them poses some major hurdles because of the heavy reliance of EERE on forecasting tools that are deterministic in nature, such as the Energy Information Administration's (EIA's) National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). NEMS is the source of the influential Annual Energy Outlook whose business-as-usual (BAU) case, the Reference Case, forms the baseline for most of the U.S. energy policy discussion. NEMS is an optimizing model because: 1. it iterates to an equilibrium among modules representing the supply, demand, and energy conversion subsectors; and 2. several subsectoral models are individually solved using linear programs (LP). Consequently, it is deeply rooted in the recent past and any effort to simulate the consequences of a major regime shift as depicted in Figure 1 must come by applying an exogenously specified scenario. And, more generally, simulating futures that lie outside of our recent historic experience, even if they do not include regime switches suggest some form of scenario approach. At the same time, the statistical validity of scenarios that deviate significantly outside the ranges of historic inputs should be questioned.
Siddiqui, Afzal S.; Marnay, Chris
Assess and improve the national GHG inventory and other economic...
development Greenhouse Gas Inventory Development Toolkit 3a. Analytical Decision Making - Developing BAU Scenario 3b. Analytical Decision Making - Assessing Opportunities 3b.1....
Compile lessons learned and good practices from ongoing and previous...
The dynamic simulation of organic farming development scenarios - A case study in Slovenia
In this paper a system dynamics model for organic farming development to support government decision making is presented. The system incorporates relevant variables which affect organic farming development. The user seeks answers to strategic questions ... Keywords: Model, Organic farming, Simulation, System dynamics
Rtomir Rozman, Karmen Paek, Miroljub Kljaji?, Martina Bavec, Jernej Turk, Franc Bavec, Davorin Kofja?, Andrej �Kraba
Biofuel Conversion Technologies Spatial Analysis and Supply Curve Development Analyses of Deployment Scenarios and Policy Interactions
In February 2008, the Western Governors � Association adopted a policy reaffirming the governors � strong commitment to enhance and diversify the region's transportation fuels portfolio. The Strategic Assessment of Bioenergy Development in the West represents a major step in fulfilling that commitment and expands upon earlier work through WGA's Clean and Diversified Energy Initiative and the Transportation Fuels Initiative. The Bioenergy Assessment Team was formed to examine the potential for future development and to create a comprehensive framework to assess environmental, technical and socioeconomic impacts associated with national, state and regional bioenergy and biomass management policies. This assessment will assist the governors individually and collectively as they develop bioenergy policies. The extensive evaluations conducted by the Assessment Team are contained in the following areas:
unknown authors
Western oil-shale development: a technology assessment. Volume 2: technology characterization and production scenarios
A technology characterization of processes that may be used in the oil shale industry is presented. The six processes investigated are TOSCO II, Paraho Direct, Union B, Superior, Occidental MIS, and Lurgi-Ruhrgas. A scanario of shale oil production to the 300,000 BPD level by 1990 is developed. (ACR)
Hawaii Energy Strategy Project 2: Fossil Energy Review. Task IV. Scenario development and analysis
The Hawaii Energy Strategy (HES) Program is a seven-project effort led by the State of Hawaii Department of Business, Economic Development & Tourism (DBEDT) to investigate a wide spectrum of Hawaii energy issues. The East-West Center`s Program on Resources: Energy and Minerals, has been assigned HES Project 2, Fossil Energy Review, which focuses on fossil energy use in Hawaii and the greater regional and global markets. HES Project 2 has four parts: Task I (World and Regional Fossil Energy Dynamics) covers petroleum, natural gas, and coal in global and regional contexts, along with a discussion of energy and the environment. Task II (Fossil Energy in Hawaii) focuses more closely on fossil energy use in Hawaii: current utilization and trends, the structure of imports, possible future sources of supply, fuel substitutability, and energy security. Task III`s emphasis is Greenfield Options; that is, fossil energy sources not yet used in Hawaii. This task is divided into two sections: first, an in-depth {open_quotes}Assessment of Coal Technology Options and Implications for the State of Hawaii,{close_quotes} along with a spreadsheet analysis model, which was subcontracted to the Environmental Assessment and Information Sciences Division of Argonne National Laboratory; and second, a chapter on liquefied natural gas (LNG) in the Asia-Pacific market and the issues surrounding possible introduction of LNG into the Hawaii market.
Yamaguchi, N.D.; Breazeale, K. [ed.
How should indicators be found for scenario monitoring ?
Scenario planning is a widely used approach for developing long-term strategies. The typical scenario process involves developing scenarios, identifying strategies whose success is contingent on the scenario, and monitoring ...
He, Zheng, M. Eng. Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Low carbon and clean energy scenarios for India: Analysis of targets approach
Low carbon energy technologies are gaining increasing importance in India for reducing emissions as well as diversifying its energy supply mix. The present paper presents and analyses a targeted approach for pushing solar, wind and nuclear technologies in the Indian energy market. Targets for these technologies have been constructed on the basis of Indian government documents, policy announcements and expert opinion. Different targets have been set for the reference scenario and the carbon price scenario. In the reference scenario it is found that in the long run all solar, wind and nuclear will achieve their targets without any subsidy push. In the short run however, nuclear and solar energy require significant subsidy push. Nuclear energy requires a much higher subsidy allocation as compared to solar because the targets assumed are also higher for nuclear energy. Under a carbon price scenario, the carbon price drives the penetration of these technologies significantly. Still subsidy is required especially in the short run when the carbon price is low. It is also found that pushing solar, wind and nuclear technologies might lead to decrease in share of CCS under the price scenario and biomass under both BAU and price scenario, which implies that one set of low carbon technologies is substituted by other set of low carbon technologies. Thus the objective of emission mitigation might not be achieved due to this substitution. Moreover sensitivity on nuclear energy cost was done to represent risk mitigation for this technology and it was found that higher cost can significantly decrease the share of this technology under both the BAU and carbon price scenario.
Shukla, Priyadarshi R.; Chaturvedi, Vaibhav
Salt Creek Scenario
Scenario Scenario HELP Index Summary Scenario References Student Pages Two branches of Salt Creek run through the city of Rolling Meadows, Illinois, not far from our school. Five members of our team of eighth grade teachers from different subject areas (science, language arts, bilingual education and special education), decided to develop an interdisciplinary study of Salt Creek as a way of giving our students authentic experiences in environmental studies. The unit begins when students enter school in August, running through the third week of September, and resuming for three weeks in October. Extension activities based on using the data gathered at the creek continue throughout the school year, culminating in a presentation at a city council meeting in the spring.
Sight and Sound - Scenario
Scenario Scenario Summary Student Pages Internet Links Index Introduction Development/Rationale for the Year-End Project Teacher Preparation for the Year-End Project The Sight and Sound Project - an Anecdotal Account Introduction to and Selection of Year-End Projects Conducting the Literature Search Project Proposal Conducting the Experiments Wrapping up with the Reports and Presentations Introduction: Mr. Tom Henderson is part of a talented science staff at Glenbrook South High School. Glenbrook South High School (GBS) is set in an educationally supportive and affluent community. The physics staff work in teams teaching physics to over 80 percent of the student population and are constantly looking for ways to use technology to empower students with the ability to apply learned concepts of physics to their lives. With this goal in mind,
Program on Technology Innovation: Using Scenario Planning to �Stress Test� EPRI�s Research and Development Portfolio
Working closely with electricity industry, public advisors, and the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) Board of Directors, EPRI has developed a research and development (R&D) roadmap for overarching strategic issues that offers both opportunities and challenges to the continued delivery of reliable, affordable, and environmentally responsible electricity. EPRI has subsequently identified key R&D challenges and action plans to respond to this roadmap.This report summarizes a ...
Formulating Climate Change Scenarios to Inform Climate - Resilient...
Formulating Climate Change Scenarios to Inform Climate - Resilient Development Strategies Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary Name: Formulating Climate Change Scenarios to...
energy scenarios | OpenEI Community
- 14:37 Four new publications help advance renewable energy development energy scenarios fossil fuels OECD OpenEI policy Renewable Energy Four publications giving guidance to...
Air Pollution Project: Scenario
Project Summary HELP Index Summary Scenario Internet Links Student Pages SubjectContent Area: ScienceChemistry, Environment - Air Pollution Target Audience: High school chemistry...
high penetrations of energy efficiency measures and renewable energy generation (both rooftop solar efficiency, renewable generation, solar photo voltaic, greenhouse gases, power generation, scenario analysis
ULCOS scenarios and economic modeling
Modeling activities and scenario building are at the heart of the economic analysis delivered by the ULCOS program. Two main objectives were followed in the framework of SP9. First the modeling team had to provide a set of coherent energy economic scenarios using POLES model. Second, the economic conditions for the emergence of the ULCOS technologies were analyzed. ULCOS contributes to the elaboration of contrasted scenarios that the steel industry could face in the long term. To aim at these objectives specific tools have been used: POLES model for the global energy system modeling and ISIM model for the steel sector based prospective ([1] Hidalgo, 2003). The most promising steel production technologies identified in ULCOS Phase 1 have been introduced into ISIM as generic technologies. ISIM was then integrated as a module into POLES modeling system. The main model outputs are the energy prices and mixes and the steel sector balances with a focus on the technology mix. Actually the climate policy scenarios developped in project allow making recommendations to the steel industry in terms of sustainable development but also in terms of business strategy.
Elie Bellevrat
Formulating Climate Change Scenarios to Inform Climate - Resilient
Formulating Climate Change Scenarios to Inform Climate - Resilient Formulating Climate Change Scenarios to Inform Climate - Resilient Development Strategies Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary Name: Formulating Climate Change Scenarios to Inform Climate - Resilient Development Strategies Agency/Company /Organization: United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) Topics: Low emission development planning Resource Type: Guide/manual Website: www.climatefinanceoptions.org/cfo/node/256 Language: English Formulating Climate Change Scenarios to Inform Climate - Resilient Development Strategies Screenshot References: Formulating Climate Change Scenarios to Inform Climate - Resilient Development Strategies[1] Tool Overview "This guidebook is part of a series of manuals, guidebooks, and toolkits that draw upon the experience and information generated by UNDP's support
Scenario Scenario HELP Index Summary Scenario Internet Links Student Pages Oak Park and River Forest High School in Oak Park, IL, is a four-year (9-12) comprehensive high school with an enrollment of approximately 2800 students. The communities of Oak Park and River Forest are located just west of Chicago. Student backgrounds vary greatly socio-economically, ethnically (63% Caucasian, 28% African-American, 4% Hispanic, 4% Asian) and culturally. Average student standardized test scores are above the state and national averages. The chemistry class is a cross section of the lower 70% of the school community. Students in Ms. Bardeen's regular chemistry class, grades 10, 11 & 12 enter the computer lab, access the Internet on their computers, and begin to work with their teams on their current project. Students are busy talking with
Illustrative Scenarios Tool | Open Energy Information
Illustrative Scenarios Tool Illustrative Scenarios Tool Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Illustrative Scenarios Tool Agency/Company /Organization: European Commission Focus Area: GHG Inventory Development Topics: Analysis Tools Website: www.eutransportghg2050.eu/cms/illustrative-scenarios-tool/ The SULTAN (SUstainabLe TrANsport) Illustrative Scenarios Tool is a high-level calculator to help provide estimates of the possible impacts of policy on transport in the European Union. The tool allows quick scoping of a range of transport policy options to help understand what scale of action might be required and may also be used as part of the analysis for final technical outputs of a project. How to Use This Tool This tool is most helpful when using these strategies:
Base case and perturbation scenarios
This report describes fourteen energy factors that could affect electricity markets in the future (demand, process, source mix, etc.). These fourteen factors are believed to have the most influence on the State? s energy environment. A base case, or most probable, characterization is given for each of these fourteen factors over a twenty year time horizon. The base case characterization is derived from quantitative and qualitative information provided by State of California government agencies, where possible. Federal government databases are nsed where needed to supplement the California data. It is envisioned that a initial selection of issue areas will be based upon an evaluation of them under base case conditions. For most of the fourteen factors, the report identities possible perturbations from base case values or assumptions that may be used to construct additional scenarios. Only those perturbations that are plausible and would have a significant effect on energy markets are included in the table. The fourteen factors and potential perturbations of the factors are listed in Table 1.1. These perturbations can be combined to generate internally consist.ent. combinations of perturbations relative to the base case. For example, a low natural gas price perturbation should be combined with a high natural gas demand perturbation. The factor perturbations are based upon alternative quantitative forecasts provided by other institutions (the Department of Energy - Energy Information Administration in some cases), changes in assumptions that drive the quantitative forecasts, or changes in assumptions about the structure of the California energy markets. The perturbations are intended to be used for a qualitative reexamination of issue areas after an initial evaluation under the base case. The perturbation information would be used as a ?tiebreaker;? to make decisions regarding those issue areas that were marginally accepted or rejected under the base case. Hf a quantitative scoring system for issue areas were applied under the base case, a tractable quantitative decision model incorporating scenarios and their likelihoods could be developed and appli& in the decision process. LLNL has developed four perturbation scenarios that address the following issues: l} low economic growth, 2) high natural gas prices, 3) dysfunctional markets, and 4) a preference for green power. We have proposed a plausible scenario that addresses each issue for discussion and consideration by the CEC. In addition, we have provided an example application of the four perturbation scenarios in a qualitative framework for evaluation of issue areas developed for the PIEPC program. A description of each of the perturbation scenarios and a discussion of how they could effect decisions about today? s R&D funding is included. The scenarios attempt to cover a broad spectrum of plausible outcomes in a deregulated market environment. Nowever, Vhey are not a comprehensive and rigorously defined list of the most probable scenarios, but rather a qualitative inference based upon knowledge and expertise in the energy field.
Edmunds, T
Tools for designing and delivering multiple-perspective scenarios
This paper describes two prototype tools developed as part of a design-based investigation into the use of multiple-perspective scenarios. A multiple-perspective scenario is one constructed as many different narratives about the same events, with the ... Keywords: XML, knowledge management, scenarios, training, video-conferencing
Wally Smith; Daghan Acay; Ramon Fano; Gideon Ratner
NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 | Open Energy Information
NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 Jump to: navigation, search Name NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 Agency/Company /Organization National Institute for Environmental Studies Topics Background analysis, Low emission development planning Website http://2050.nies.go.jp/LCS/ind Program Start 2009 Country Bangladesh, China, India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam UN Region Eastern Asia References 2050 Low-Carbon Society Scenarios (LCSs)[1] National and Local Scenarios National and local scenarios available from the activity webpage: http://2050.nies.go.jp/LCS/index.html References ↑ "2050 Low-Carbon Society Scenarios (LCSs)" Retrieved from "http://en.openei.org/w/index.php?title=NIES_Low-Carbon_Society_Scenarios_2050&oldid=553682"
Igneous Event Scenario
Previous risk analyses by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) indicate that a future igneous event at Yucca Mountain could lead to significant increases in calculated probability-weighted, mean-annual dose rates. A technical report is being prepared by EPRI that examines the various steps and sub-processes inherent in such a scenario for a repository at Yucca Mountain. Specific steps that are being evaluated include: � determination of the probability...
Scenario Modelling: A Holistic Environmental and Energy Management...
Development Contact Us Department Contacts Media Contacts Scenario Modelling: A Holistic Environmental and Energy Management Technique for Building Managers Speaker(s): James...
Technical assessment of community solar future scenarios
The Kent Solar Project goal is to develop energy future scenarios for the community based upon the input of a cross-section of the population. It has been primarily a non-technical development in an attempt to gain community commitment. Social/political/economic issues have been identified as the key obstacles in fulfilling the future scenarios. To communicate the feasibility of solar energy in Kent, Ohio an analysis of the economic potential for solar energy was developed. The Solar Project calls for 25 per cent reduction of present fossil fuel quantities in 1990, achievable by conservation measures, and a 50 per cent reduction in 2000, which necessitates solar technology implementation. The technical analysis is demonstrating the future scenarios to be both feasible and economically wise. The technical assessment requires an in-depth data base of existing comsumption which is not easily identifiable.
Kremers, J.A.
Radiation Detection Computational Benchmark Scenarios
Modeling forms an important component of radiation detection development, allowing for testing of new detector designs, evaluation of existing equipment against a wide variety of potential threat sources, and assessing operation performance of radiation detection systems. This can, however, result in large and complex scenarios which are time consuming to model. A variety of approaches to radiation transport modeling exist with complementary strengths and weaknesses for different problems. This variety of approaches, and the development of promising new tools (such as ORNL�s ADVANTG) which combine benefits of multiple approaches, illustrates the need for a means of evaluating or comparing different techniques for radiation detection problems. This report presents a set of 9 benchmark problems for comparing different types of radiation transport calculations, identifying appropriate tools for classes of problems, and testing and guiding the development of new methods. The benchmarks were drawn primarily from existing or previous calculations with a preference for scenarios which include experimental data, or otherwise have results with a high level of confidence, are non-sensitive, and represent problem sets of interest to NA-22. From a technical perspective, the benchmarks were chosen to span a range of difficulty and to include gamma transport, neutron transport, or both and represent different important physical processes and a range of sensitivity to angular or energy fidelity. Following benchmark identification, existing information about geometry, measurements, and previous calculations were assembled. Monte Carlo results (MCNP decks) were reviewed or created and re-run in order to attain accurate computational times and to verify agreement with experimental data, when present. Benchmark information was then conveyed to ORNL in order to guide testing and development of hybrid calculations. The results of those ADVANTG calculations were then sent to PNNL for compilation. This is a report describing the details of the selected Benchmarks and results from various transport codes.
Shaver, Mark W.; Casella, Andrew M.; Wittman, Richard S.; McDonald, Ben S.
Hydrogen and FCV Implementation Scenarios, 2010 - 2025
Scenario 1 Vehicle Transition and Deployment Scenario 2 Vehicle Transition and Deployment Scenario 3 Vehicle Transition and Deployment SUMMARY In response to the National Research...
Danish Greenhouse Gas Reduction Scenarios for 2020
Danish Greenhouse Gas Reduction Scenarios for 2020 and 2050 February 2008 Prepared by Ea Energy 54 2.9 ENERGY RESOURCES 55 3 DANISH GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSION 58 3.1 GREENHOUSE GAS SOURCES 58 4 of 2007, Ea Energy Analyses and Risø DTU developed a number of greenhouse gas emissions reduction
A scenario generation tool for DDF simulation testbeds
An interactive tool has been developed for visualizing and creating scaled battlefield based scenarios for use in a simulation testbed to develop and test distributed data fusion and ad-hoc networking algorithms. This paper discuses the design requirements ...
G. Srimathveeravalli; N. Subramanian; T. Kesavadas
Biofuel and Bioenergy implementation scenarios
Biofuel and Bioenergy implementation scenarios Final report of VIEWLS WP5, modelling studies #12;Biofuel and Bioenergy implementation scenarios Final report of VIEWLS WP5, modelling studies By André of this project are to provide structured and clear data on the availability and performance of biofuels
Future technology oriented scenarios on e-accessibility
This paper presents a set of future scenarios as a part of our study which explores and analyzes the relationships between the emerging ICT landscape in the European societal and economic context, and the development and provision of e-Accessibility, ... Keywords: eaccessibility, future, scenario
Christos Kouroupetroglou; Adamantios Koumpis; Dimitris Papageorgiou
Development of Burning Plasma and Advanced Scenarios
S A N D I E G O DIIID 248-04/TCL//rs by T.C. Luce for the DIIID Team Presented at 20th IAEA Fusion-04/TCL/rsNATIONAL FUSION FACILITY S A N D I E G O DIIID Strengthening the scientific basis for next themes: #12;DIIID EXPERIMENTS INCREASE CONFIDENCE IN REACHING THE ITER PERFORMANCE TARGETS 248-04/TCL
Report on Scenario Development and Analysis
of market-rational storage (based on present/forecasted cost of generation). 2. Demand-side: Load & other. Peak load and electricity consumption in 2018 will be calculated based on IRP3 growth projections, 2006, and residential and commercial load control and electrical and thermal energy storage programs. The Energy
Low Carbon Society Scenarios Towards 2050 | Open Energy Information
Low Carbon Society Scenarios Towards 2050 Low Carbon Society Scenarios Towards 2050 Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Low Carbon Society Scenarios Towards 2050 Agency/Company /Organization: National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES) Sector: Energy Focus Area: Renewable Energy, Non-renewable Energy, Economic Development, Energy Efficiency, People and Policy, Solar Phase: Create a Vision, Determine Baseline, Evaluate Options, Develop Goals Topics: Adaptation, Baseline projection, GHG inventory, Implementation, Low emission development planning, -LEDS, Pathways analysis, Policies/deployment programs, Resource assessment Resource Type: Guide/manual, Lessons learned/best practices, Publications, Training materials Website: 2050.nies.go.jp/report.html Cost: Free
Rooftop Photovoltaics Market Penetration Scenarios
The goal of this study was to model the market penetration of rooftop photovoltaics (PV) in the United States under a variety of scenarios, on a state-by-state basis, from 2007 to 2015.
Paidipati, J.; Frantzis, L.; Sawyer, H.; Kurrasch, A.
Summary of student scenarios: 2020 Vision project, fiscal year 1997
The Strategic Issues Thinking: 2020 Vision project introduces students and teaches to national security issues through the techniques of scenario building, and engages them in an interactive process of creating scenarios relevant to the Department of Energy, Defense Programs (DOE/DP). Starting with the world as it is today, teams of students develop a series of scenarios on international developments over the next 25 years under various circumstances. This report identifies recurrent themes in the student`s scenarios, lists creative ways the students presented their scenarios, compares and contrasts the program`s FY97 results with FY96 results, identifies the benefits of the program, and offers a glimpse of Sandia`s future plans for the 2020 Vision project.
Gordon, K.W.; Munoz, A.; Scott, K.P.; Rinne, R.
Baseline scenario(s) for muon collider proton driver
This paper gives an overview of the various muon collider scenarios and the requirements they put on the Proton Driver. The required proton power is about 4-6MW in all the scenarios, but the bunch repetition rate varies between 12 and 65Hz. Since none of the muon collider scenarios have been simulated end-to-end, it would be advisable to plan for an upgrade path to around 10MW. Although the proton driver energy is flexible, cost arguments seems to favor a relatively low energy. In particular, at Fermilab 8GeV seems most attractive, partly due to the possibility of reusing the three existing fixed energy storage rings for bunch manipulations.
Jansson, Andreas; /Fermilab
Complexity of event structure in IE scenarios
This paper presents new Information Extraction scenarios which are linguistically and structurally more challenging than the traditional MUC scenarios. Traditional views on event structure and template design are not adequate for the more complex scenarios.The ...
Silja Huttunen; Roman Yangarber; Ralph Grishman
Energy Scenarios for East Asia: 2005-2025
We describe several scenarios for economic development and energy use in East Asia based on the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, a computable general equilibrium model of the world economy. Historic ...
Paltsev, Sergey
Generating Scenarios of Local Surface Temperature Using Time Series Methods
A method for creating scenarios of time series of monthly mean surface temperature at a specific site is developed. It is postulated that surface temperature can be specified as a linear combination of regional and local temperature components, ...
Robert S. Chen; Peter J. Robinson
... Impact Analysis Threat Actor Analysis For each scenario Aim: Select scenarios that could have a catastrophic impact on the organisation Page 23. ...
RESEARCH ARTICLE Optimal Scenario Tree Reduction for ...
scenarios) for streamflows of the jth hydroelectric plant. Our choice is based on the fact that when scenarios are discarded, variance tends to decrease.
Abrupt Climate Change Scenario Technologies
Abrupt Climate Change Scenario Technologies Abrupt Climate Change Scenario Technologies Speaker(s): Tina Kaarsberg Date: April 27, 2006 - 12:00pm Location: Bldg. 90 Seminar Host/Point of Contact: Jayant Sathaye This talk examines the potential for several types of technologies that hitherto have not been a focus of U.S. climate technology planning. It was inspired by the latest climate science data and modeling which suggest that an abrupt warming (+10oF in 10 years), is an increasingly plausible scenario. The technologies described in the session rapidly reduce the risk of climate change and increase our ability to respond quickly. All of the technologies also have other public benefits. (Summary follows): For more information about this seminar, please contact: JoAnne Lambert 510.486.4835, or send e-mail to firstname.lastname@example.com
Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS) | Open Energy Information
(Redirected from CIFF-Chile-Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS)) (Redirected from CIFF-Chile-Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS)) Jump to: navigation, search Logo: Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS) Name Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS) Agency/Company /Organization The Children's Investment Fund Foundation, SouthSouthNorth, University of Cape Town-Energy Research Centre, Danish Government Sector Climate, Energy Topics Baseline projection, Low emission development planning, -LEDS, -NAMA, Pathways analysis Website http://www.mapsprogramme.org Program Start 2010 Program End 2013 Country Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Peru, South Africa South America, South America, South America, South America, South America, Southern Africa References Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS)[1]
Argentina-Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS) | Open Energy
Argentina-Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS) Argentina-Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS) Jump to: navigation, search Logo: Argentina-Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS) Name Argentina-Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS) Agency/Company /Organization The Children's Investment Fund Foundation, SouthSouthNorth, University of Cape Town-Energy Research Centre, Danish Government Sector Climate, Energy Topics Baseline projection, Low emission development planning, -LEDS, -NAMA, Pathways analysis Website http://www.mapsprogramme.org Program Start 2010 Program End 2013 Country Argentina South America References Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS)[1] Contents 1 Overview 2 MAPS Processes and Outcomes 2.1 Chile 2.2 Colombia 2.3 Peru 2.4 Brazil 2.5 Resources 2.5.1 Mitigation Action Country Studies
Colombia-Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS) | Open Energy
Colombia-Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS) Colombia-Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS) Jump to: navigation, search Logo: Colombia-Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS) Name Colombia-Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS) Agency/Company /Organization The Children's Investment Fund Foundation, SouthSouthNorth, University of Cape Town-Energy Research Centre, Danish Government Sector Climate, Energy Topics Baseline projection, Low emission development planning, -LEDS, -NAMA, Pathways analysis Website http://www.mapsprogramme.org Program Start 2010 Program End 2013 Country Colombia South America References Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS)[1] Contents 1 Overview 2 MAPS Processes and Outcomes 2.1 Chile 2.2 Colombia 2.3 Peru 2.4 Brazil 2.5 Resources 2.5.1 Mitigation Action Country Studies
Brazil-Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS) | Open Energy
Brazil-Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS) Brazil-Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS) Jump to: navigation, search Logo: Brazil-Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS) Name Brazil-Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS) Agency/Company /Organization The Children's Investment Fund Foundation, SouthSouthNorth, University of Cape Town-Energy Research Centre, Danish Government Sector Climate, Energy Topics Baseline projection, Low emission development planning, -LEDS, -NAMA, Pathways analysis Website http://www.mapsprogramme.org Program Start 2010 Program End 2013 Country Brazil South America References Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS)[1] Contents 1 Overview 2 MAPS Processes and Outcomes 2.1 Chile 2.2 Colombia 2.3 Peru 2.4 Brazil 2.5 Resources 2.5.1 Mitigation Action Country Studies
Laboratory, email@example.com 7 May 2012 Solar reflective "cool" roofs save energy, money, and CO 2 when applied to air-conditioned buildings; improve comfort when applied to...
Organisational scenarios and legacy systems
A legacy system is made up of technical components and social factors (such as software, people, skills, business processes) which no longer meet the needs of the business environment. The study of legacy systems has tended to be biased towards a software ... Keywords: Business process, Legacy system, Scenario, Software
Carole Brooke; Magnus Ramage
Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicle Penetration Scenarios
This report examines the economic drivers, technology constraints, and market potential for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) in the U.S. A PHEV is a hybrid vehicle with batteries that can be recharged by connecting to the grid and an internal combustion engine that can be activated when batteries need recharging. The report presents and examines a series of PHEV market penetration scenarios. Based on input received from technical experts and industry representative contacted for this report and data obtained through a literature review, annual market penetration rates for PHEVs are presented from 2013 through 2045 for three scenarios. Each scenario is examined and implications for PHEV development are explored.
Balducci, Patrick J.
Indonesia-NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 | Open Energy Information
Indonesia-NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 Indonesia-NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 Jump to: navigation, search Name Indonesia-NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 Agency/Company /Organization National Institute for Environmental Studies Topics Background analysis, Low emission development planning Website http://2050.nies.go.jp/LCS/ind Program Start 2009 Country Indonesia UN Region Eastern Asia References 2050 Low-Carbon Society Scenarios (LCSs)[1] National and Local Scenarios National and local scenarios available from the activity webpage: http://2050.nies.go.jp/LCS/index.html References ↑ "2050 Low-Carbon Society Scenarios (LCSs)" Retrieved from "http://en.openei.org/w/index.php?title=Indonesia-NIES_Low-Carbon_Society_Scenarios_2050&oldid=700312" Category:
Thailand-NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 | Open Energy Information
Thailand-NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 Thailand-NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 Jump to: navigation, search Name Thailand-NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 Agency/Company /Organization National Institute for Environmental Studies Topics Background analysis, Low emission development planning Website http://2050.nies.go.jp/LCS/ind Program Start 2009 Country Thailand UN Region Eastern Asia References 2050 Low-Carbon Society Scenarios (LCSs)[1] National and Local Scenarios National and local scenarios available from the activity webpage: http://2050.nies.go.jp/LCS/index.html References ↑ "2050 Low-Carbon Society Scenarios (LCSs)" Retrieved from "http://en.openei.org/w/index.php?title=Thailand-NIES_Low-Carbon_Society_Scenarios_2050&oldid=700318" Category: Programs
Vietnam-NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 | Open Energy Information
Vietnam-NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 Vietnam-NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 Jump to: navigation, search Name Vietnam-NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 Agency/Company /Organization National Institute for Environmental Studies Topics Background analysis, Low emission development planning Website http://2050.nies.go.jp/LCS/ind Program Start 2009 Country Vietnam UN Region Eastern Asia References 2050 Low-Carbon Society Scenarios (LCSs)[1] National and Local Scenarios National and local scenarios available from the activity webpage: http://2050.nies.go.jp/LCS/index.html References ↑ "2050 Low-Carbon Society Scenarios (LCSs)" Retrieved from "http://en.openei.org/w/index.php?title=Vietnam-NIES_Low-Carbon_Society_Scenarios_2050&oldid=700320" Category: Programs
Japan-NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 | Open Energy Information
Japan-NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 Japan-NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 Jump to: navigation, search Name Japan-NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 Agency/Company /Organization National Institute for Environmental Studies Topics Background analysis, Low emission development planning Website http://2050.nies.go.jp/LCS/ind Program Start 2009 Country Japan UN Region Eastern Asia References 2050 Low-Carbon Society Scenarios (LCSs)[1] National and Local Scenarios National and local scenarios available from the activity webpage: http://2050.nies.go.jp/LCS/index.html References ↑ "2050 Low-Carbon Society Scenarios (LCSs)" Retrieved from "http://en.openei.org/w/index.php?title=Japan-NIES_Low-Carbon_Society_Scenarios_2050&oldid=700314" Category: Programs What links here
Mapping Climate Change Vulnerability and Impact Scenarios - A Guidebook for
Mapping Climate Change Vulnerability and Impact Scenarios - A Guidebook for Mapping Climate Change Vulnerability and Impact Scenarios - A Guidebook for Sub-national Planners Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary Name: Mapping Climate Change Vulnerability and Impact Scenarios - A Guidebook for Sub-national Planners Agency/Company /Organization: United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) Resource Type: Guide/manual Website: www.beta.undp.org/content/dam/aplaws/publication/en/publications/envir Language: English Mapping Climate Change Vulnerability and Impact Scenarios - A Guidebook for Sub-national Planners Screenshot This guidebook assists planners working at the sub-national levels to identify and map the nature of current and future vulnerability to long-term climate change so that appropriate policies and intervention can
Chile-Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS) | Open Energy
Page Page Edit with form History Facebook icon Twitter icon » Chile-Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS) Jump to: navigation, search Logo: Chile-Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS) Name Chile-Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS) Agency/Company /Organization The Children's Investment Fund Foundation, SouthSouthNorth, University of Cape Town-Energy Research Centre, Danish Government Sector Climate, Energy Topics Baseline projection, Low emission development planning, -LEDS, -NAMA, Pathways analysis Website http://www.mapsprogramme.org Program Start 2010 Program End 2013 Country Chile South America References Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS)[1] Contents 1 Overview 2 MAPS Processes and Outcomes 2.1 Chile 2.2 Colombia 2.3 Peru
Entanglement cost in practical scenarios
We quantify the one-shot entanglement cost of an arbitrary bipartite state, that is the minimum number of singlets needed by two distant parties to create a single copy of the state up to a finite accuracy, using local operations and classical communication only. This analysis, in contrast to the traditional one, pertains to scenarios of practical relevance, in which resources are finite and transformations can only be achieved approximately. Moreover, it unveils a fundamental relation between two well-known entanglement measures, namely, the Schmidt number and the entanglement of formation. Using this relation, we are able to recover the usual expression of the entanglement cost as a special case.
Francesco Buscemi; Nilanjana Datta
PRISM 2.0: Regional Energy and Economic Model Development and Initial Application: Phase 2: Electric Sector CO2 Reduction Options to 2050: Dimensions of Technology, Energy Costs, and Environmental Scenarios
EPRI conducted an analysis of electric sector CO2 reduction options to 2050 across a range of scenarios covering dimensions of technology costs and availability, energy costs, and CO2 constraints.� Using its U.S. Regional Economy, Greenhouse Gas, and Energy (US-REGEN) model, EPRI calculated the impact of changes in generation portfolio, generation capacity, expenditures, and electricity prices on power sector costs. This analysis estimates different levels of ...
a scenario may be an oil price hike in a future year, whichon the impact of high oil prices on the global economy (seethe scenario of a high oil price (of US$35/barrel, which is
IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios
Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)
IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios Get Javascript Other reports in this collection Special Report on Emissions Scenarios Foreword Preface Summary for policymakers Technical Summary Chapters Chapter 1: Background and Overview Chapter 2: An Overview of the Scenario Literature Chapter 3: Scenario Driving Forces Chapter 4: An Overview of Scenarios Chapter 5: Emission Scenarios Chapter 6: Summary Discussions and Recommendations Appendices index I: SRES Terms of Reference: New IPCC Emission Scenarios II: SRES Writing Team and SRES Reviewers III: Definition of SRES World Region IV: Six Modeling Approaches V: Database Description VI: Open Process VII Data tables VIII Acronyms and Abbreviations IX Chemical Symbols X Units XI Glossary of Terms XII List of Major IPCC Reports
The Reality and Future Scenarios of Commercial Building Energy Consumption in China
and Economic Policy Sustainable Energy Development Research,The China Sustainable Energy Program, Energy Foundation [8]Zhu,Y. , 2003. China�s Sustainable Energy Scenarios in 2020,
Zhou, Nan
An Analysis of Near-Term Hydrogen Vehicle Rollout Scenarios for Southern California
electricity from grid or solar PV. We developed scenarios tovia grid) Onsite electrolysis (Solar PV at station) Table 10ONSITE ELECTROLYSIS: 100% Solar PV $20/kg Electricity for
Nicholas, Michael A; Ogden, J
A review of scenario generation methods
Stochastic programming models provide a powerful paradigm for decision making under uncertainty. In these models the uncertainties are captured by scenario generation and so are crucial to the quality of solutions obtained. Presently there do not exist ... Keywords: decision making, scenario generation, scenarios, stochastic optimisation, stochastic programming, uncertainty
Sovan Mitra; Nico Di Domenica
Eliminating Electricity Deficit through Energy Efficiency in India: An Evaluation of Aggregate Economic and Carbon Benefits
Business as Usual (BAU) Scenario 1 � Electricity Demand andEnergy Efficiency (SEE) Scenario 2� Electricity Demand andCA 94720 Abstract Electricity demand has consistently
Sathaye, Jayant
The jamming scenario - an introduction and outlook
The jamming scenario of disordered media, formulated about 10 years ago, has in recent years been advanced by analyzing model systems of granular media. This has led to various new concepts that are increasingly being explored in in a variety of systems. This chapter contains an introductory review of these recent developments and provides an outlook on their applicability to different physical systems and on future directions. The first part of the paper is devoted to an overview of the findings for model systems of frictionless spheres, focussing on the excess of low-frequency modes as the jamming point is approached. Particular attention is paid to a discussion of the cross-over frequency and length scales that govern this approach. We then discuss the effects of particle asphericity and static friction, the applicability to bubble models for wet foams in which the friction is dynamic, the dynamical arrest in colloids, and the implications for molecular glasses.
Andrea J. Liu; Sidney R. Nagel; Wim van Saarloos; Matthieu Wyart
Environmental assessment of spatial plan policies through land use scenarios
This paper presents a method based on scenario analysis to compare the environmental effects of different spatial plan policies in a range of possible futures. The study aimed at contributing to overcome two limitations encountered in Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) for spatial planning: poor exploration of how the future might unfold, and poor consideration of alternative plan policies. Scenarios were developed through what-if functions and spatial modeling in a Geographical Information System (GIS), and consisted in maps that represent future land uses under different assumptions on key driving forces. The use of land use scenarios provided a representation of how the different policies will look like on the ground. This allowed gaining a better understanding of the policies' implications on the environment, which could be measured through a set of indicators. The research undertook a case-study approach by developing and assessing land use scenarios for the future growth of Caia, a strategically-located and fast-developing town in rural Mozambique. The effects of alternative spatial plan policies were assessed against a set of environmental performance indicators, including deforestation, loss of agricultural land, encroachment of flood-prone areas and wetlands and access to water sources. In this way, critical environmental effects related to the implementation of each policy were identified and discussed, suggesting possible strategies to address them. - Graphical abstract: Display Omitted Research Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The method contributes to two critical issues in SEA: exploration of the future and consideration of alternatives. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Future scenarios are used to test the environmental performance of different spatial plan policies in uncertainty conditions. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Spatially-explicit land use scenarios provide a representation of how different policies will look like on the ground.
Geneletti, Davide, E-mail: firstname.lastname@example.com
Benchmark scenarios for the NMSSM
We discuss constrained and semi--constrained versions of the next--to--minimal supersymmetric extension of the Standard Model (NMSSM) in which a singlet Higgs superfield is added to the two doublet superfields that are present in the minimal extension (MSSM). This leads to a richer Higgs and neutralino spectrum and allows for many interesting phenomena that are not present in the MSSM. In particular, light Higgs particles are still allowed by current constraints and could appear as decay products of the heavier Higgs states, rendering their search rather difficult at the LHC. We propose benchmark scenarios which address the new phenomenological features, consistent with present constraints from colliders and with the dark matter relic density, and with (semi--)universal soft terms at the GUT scale. We present the corresponding spectra for the Higgs particles, their couplings to gauge bosons and fermions and their most important decay branching ratios. A brief survey of the search strategies for these states at the LHC is given.
A. Djouadi; M. Drees; U. Ellwanger; R. Godbole; C. Hugonie; S. F. King; S. Lehti; S. Moretti; A. Nikitenko; I. Rottlaender; M. Schumacher; A. Teixeira
Transport Test Problems for Radiation Detection Scenarios
This is the final report and deliverable for the project. It is a list of the details of the test cases for radiation detection scenarios.
Shaver, Mark W.; Miller, Erin A.; Wittman, Richard S.; McDonald, Benjamin S.
California Energy Demand Scenario Projections to 2050
energy scenarios to explore alternative energy pathways indo not include the alternative energy pathways (such asmodeling to investigate alternative energy supply strategies
McCarthy, Ryan; Yang, Christopher; Ogden, Joan M.
California Energy Demand Scenario Projections to 2050 RyanResearch Program California Energy Commission November 7,Chris Kavalec. California Energy Commission. CEC (2003a)
2010 - 2025 Scenario Analysis and Transition Strategies
2025 Scenario Analysis Sig Gronich Technology Validation Manager Manager- Transition Strategies DOE Hydrogen Program DOE Hydrogen Program The President's Hydrogen Fuel Initiative...
Recoverable Robust Knapsack: the Discrete Scenario Case
Feb 24, 2011... different customers according to their demands maximizing the profit of ... In this paper, we show that for a fixed number of discrete scenarios�...
Scenario Generation for Price Forecasting in Restructured Wholesale Power Markets
In current restructured wholesale power markets, the short length of time series for prices makes it difficult to use empirical price data to test existing price forecasting tools and to develop new price forecasting tools. This study therefore proposes a two-stage approach for generating simulated price scenarios based on the available price data. The first stage consists of an Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) model for determining scenarios of cleared demands and scheduled generator outages (D&O), and a moment-matching method for reducing the number of D&O scenarios to a practical scale. In the second stage, polynomials are fitted between D&O and wholesale power prices in order to obtain price scenarios for a specified time frame. Time series data from the Midwest ISO (MISO) are used as a test system to validate the proposed approach. The simulation results indicate that the proposed approach is able to generate price scenarios for distinct seasons with empirically realistic characteristics.
Qun Zhou; Leigh Tesfatsion; Chen-Ching Liu
South Africa Long Term Mitigation Scenarios | Open Energy Information
South Africa Long Term Mitigation Scenarios South Africa Long Term Mitigation Scenarios Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: South Africa Long Term Mitigation Scenarios Agency/Company /Organization: South Africa Department of Environment Affairs and Tourism Sector: Energy, Land Topics: Background analysis, Low emission development planning Resource Type: Case studies/examples Website: www.erc.uct.ac.za/Research/publications/07Scenario_team-LTMS_Scenarios Country: South Africa Southern Africa Coordinates: -30.559482°, 22.937506° Loading map... {"minzoom":false,"mappingservice":"googlemaps3","type":"ROADMAP","zoom":14,"types":["ROADMAP","SATELLITE","HYBRID","TERRAIN"],"geoservice":"google","maxzoom":false,"width":"600px","height":"350px","centre":false,"title":"","label":"","icon":"","visitedicon":"","lines":[],"polygons":[],"circles":[],"rectangles":[],"copycoords":false,"static":false,"wmsoverlay":"","layers":[],"controls":["pan","zoom","type","scale","streetview"],"zoomstyle":"DEFAULT","typestyle":"DEFAULT","autoinfowindows":false,"kml":[],"gkml":[],"fusiontables":[],"resizable":false,"tilt":0,"kmlrezoom":false,"poi":true,"imageoverlays":[],"markercluster":false,"searchmarkers":"","locations":[{"text":"","title":"","link":null,"lat":-30.559482,"lon":22.937506,"alt":0,"address":"","icon":"","group":"","inlineLabel":"","visitedicon":""}]}
Security Implications of Typical Grid Computing Usage Scenarios
A Computational Grid is a collection of heterogeneous computers and resources spread across multiple administrative domains with the intent of providing users uniform access to these resources. There are many ways to access the resources of a Computational Grid, each with unique security requirements and implications for both the resource user and the resource provider. A comprehensive set of Grid usage scenarios are presented and analyzed with regard to security requirements such as authentication, authorization, integrity, and confidentiality. The main value of these scenarios and the associated security discussions are to provide a library of situations against which an application designer can match, thereby facilitating security-aware application use and development from the initial stages of the application design and invocation. A broader goal of these scenarios are to increase the awareness of security issues in Grid Computing.
Humphrey, Marty; Thompson, Mary R.
Uncertainty in Integrated Assessment Scenarios
The determination of climate policy is a decision under uncertainty. The uncertainty in future climate change impacts is large, as is the uncertainty in the costs of potential policies. Rational and economically efficient policy choices will therefore seek to balance the expected marginal costs with the expected marginal benefits. This approach requires that the risks of future climate change be assessed. The decision process need not be formal or quantitative for descriptions of the risks to be useful. Whatever the decision procedure, a useful starting point is to have as accurate a description of climate risks as possible. Given the goal of describing uncertainty in future climate change, we need to characterize the uncertainty in the main causes of uncertainty in climate impacts. One of the major drivers of uncertainty in future climate change is the uncertainty in future emissions, both of greenhouse gases and other radiatively important species such as sulfur dioxide. In turn, the drivers of uncertainty in emissions are uncertainties in the determinants of the rate of economic growth and in the technologies of production and how those technologies will change over time. This project uses historical experience and observations from a large number of countries to construct statistical descriptions of variability and correlation in labor productivity growth and in AEEI. The observed variability then provides a basis for constructing probability distributions for these drivers. The variance of uncertainty in growth rates can be further modified by expert judgment if it is believed that future variability will differ from the past. But often, expert judgment is more readily applied to projected median or expected paths through time. Analysis of past variance and covariance provides initial assumptions about future uncertainty for quantities that are less intuitive and difficult for experts to estimate, and these variances can be normalized and then applied to mean trends from a model for uncertainty projections. The probability distributions of these critical model drivers, and the resulting uncertainty in projections from a range of models, can provide the basis of future emission scenario set designs.
Mort Webster
Stephen Potter: Exploring rail futures using scenarios EXPLORING RAIL FUTURES USING SCENARIOS: EXPERIENCE AND POTENTIAL
and other research outputs Exploring rail futures using scenarios: experience and potential Conference Item How to cite:
Stephen Potter
Greenhouse Gas Inventory Development Toolkit | Open Energy Information
Greenhouse Gas Inventory Development Toolkit Greenhouse Gas Inventory Development Toolkit Jump to: navigation, search Stage 2 LEDS Home Introduction to Framework Assess current country plans, policies, practices, and capacities Develop_BAU Stage 4: Prioritizing and Planning for Actions Begin execution of implementation plans 1.0. Organizing the LEDS Process 1.1. Institutional Structure for LEDS 1.2. Workplan to Develop the LEDS 1.3. Roles and responsibilities to develop LEDS 2.1. Assess current country plans, policies, practices, and capacities 2.2. Compile lessons learned and good practices from ongoing and previous sustainable development efforts in the country 2.3. Assess public and private sector capacity to support initiatives 2.4. Assess and improve the national GHG inventory and other economic and resource data as needed for LEDS development
Report on a workshop on transportation-accident scenarios involving spent fuel
Much confusion and skepticism resulted from the scenarios for transportation accidents involving spent fuel that have been presented in environmental impact statements because the supporting assumptions and conclusions from the scenarios did not always appear to be consistent. As a result, the Transportation Technology Center gathered a group whose participants were experts in disciplines related to the transport of spent fuel to consider the scenarios. The group made a number of recommendations about scenario development and about areas in need of further study. This report documents the discussions held and the recommendations and conclusions of the group.
Wilmot, E.L.; McClure, J.D.; Luna, R.E.
Radiation Detection Scenario Analysis Toolbox (RADSAT) Test Case Implementation Final Report
Final report for the project. This project was designed to demonstrate the use of the Radiation Detection Scenario Analysis Toolbox (RADSAT) radiation detection transport modeling package (developed in a previous NA-22 project) for specific radiation detection scenarios important to proliferation detection.
Shaver, Mark W.
The Programmer's Apprentice: A Program Design Scenario
A scenario is used to illustrate the capabilities of a proposed Design Apprentice, focussing on the area of detailed, low-level design. Given a specification, the Design Apprentice will be able to make many of the ...
Rich, Charles
An overview of alternative fossil fuel price and carbon regulation scenarios
The benefits of the Department of Energy's research and development (R&D) efforts have historically been estimated under business-as-usual market and policy conditions. In recognition of the insurance value of R&D, however, the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) and the Office of Fossil Energy (FE) have been exploring options for evaluating the benefits of their R&D programs under an array of alternative futures. More specifically, an FE-EERE Scenarios Working Group (the Working Group) has proposed to EERE and FE staff the application of an initial set of three scenarios for use in the Working Group's upcoming analyses: (1) a Reference Case Scenario, (2) a High Fuel Price Scenario, which includes heightened natural gas and oil prices, and (3) a Carbon Cap-and-Trade Scenario. The immediate goal is to use these scenarios to conduct a pilot analysis of the benefits of EERE and FE R&D efforts. In this report, the two alternative scenarios being considered by EERE and FE staff--carbon cap-and-trade and high fuel prices--are compared to other scenarios used by energy analysts and utility planners. The report also briefly evaluates the past accuracy of fossil fuel price forecasts. We find that the natural gas prices through 2025 proposed in the FE-EERE Scenarios Working Group's High Fuel Price Scenario appear to be reasonable based on current natural gas prices and other externally generated gas price forecasts and scenarios. If anything, an even more extreme gas price scenario might be considered. The price escalation from 2025 to 2050 within the proposed High Fuel Price Scenario is harder to evaluate, primarily because few existing forecasts or scenarios extend beyond 2025, but, at first blush, it also appears reasonable. Similarly, we find that the oil prices originally proposed by the Working Group in the High Fuel Price Scenario appear to be reasonable, if not conservative, based on: (1) the current forward market for oil, (2) current oil prices, (3) externally generated oil price forecasts, and (4) the historical difficulty in accurately forecasting oil prices. Overall, a spread between the FE-EERE High Oil Price and Reference scenarios of well over $8/bbl is supported by the literature. We conclude that a wide range of carbon regulation scenarios are possible, especially within the time frame considered by EERE and FE (through 2050). The Working Group's Carbon Cap-and-Trade Scenario is found to be less aggressive than many Kyoto-style targets that have been analyzed, and similar in magnitude to the proposed Climate Stewardship Act. The proposed scenario is more aggressive than some other scenarios found in the literature, however, and ignores carbon banking and offsets and does not allow nuclear power to expand. We are therefore somewhat concerned that the stringency of the proposed carbon regulation scenario in the 2010 to 2025 period will lead to a particularly high estimated cost of carbon reduction. As described in more detail later, we encourage some flexibility in the Working Group's ultimate implementation of the Carbon Cap-and-Trade Scenario. We conclude by identifying additional scenarios that might be considered in future analyses, describing a concern with the proposed specification of the High Fuel Price Scenario, and highlighting the possible difficulty of implementing extreme scenarios with current energy modeling tools.
Wiser, Ryan; Bolinger, Mark
Workforce management strategies in a disaster scenario.
A model of the repair operations of the voice telecommunications network is used to study labor management strategies under a disaster scenario where the workforce is overwhelmed. The model incorporates overtime and fatigue functions and optimizes the deployment of the workforce based on the cost of the recovery and the time it takes to recover. The analysis shows that the current practices employed in workforce management in a disaster scenario are not optimal and more strategic deployment of that workforce is beneficial.
Kelic, Andjelka; Turk, Adam L.
Identify types of development and climate impacts that are country
source source History View New Pages Recent Changes All Special Pages Semantic Search/Querying Get Involved Help Apps Datasets Community Login | Sign Up Search Page Edit History Facebook icon Twitter icon » Identify types of development and climate impacts that are country priorities Jump to: navigation, search Stage 3 LEDS Home Introduction to Framework Assess current country plans, policies, practices, and capacities Develop_BAU Stage 4: Prioritizing and Planning for Actions Begin execution of implementation plans 1.0. Organizing the LEDS Process 1.1. Institutional Structure for LEDS 1.2. Workplan to Develop the LEDS 1.3. Roles and responsibilities to develop LEDS 2.1. Assess current country plans, policies, practices, and capacities 2.2. Compile lessons learned and good practices from ongoing and
The need for and use of socio-economic scenarios for climate change analysis: A new approach based on shared socio-economic pathways
A new set of socioeconomic scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) are described that provide a set of global narratives and socio-economic pathways to pair with climate model scenarios developed using the new Representative Concentration Pathways.
Kriegler, Elmar; O'Neill, Brian; Hallegatte, Stephane; Kram, Tom; Lempert, Rob; Moss, Richard H.; Wilbanks, Thomas
Analysis of Long-range Clean Energy Investment Scenarios for...
of Long-range Clean Energy Investment Scenarios for Eritrea, East Africa Title Analysis of Long-range Clean Energy Investment Scenarios for Eritrea, East Africa Publication Type...
DOE Hydrogen Analysis Repository: H2A Delivery Scenario Analysis...
Scenario Analysis Model (HDSAM) Project Summary Full Title: H2A Delivery Scenario Analysis Model (HDSAM) Project ID: 218 Principal Investigator: Marianne Mintz Keywords: Models;...
Systems analysis of past, present, and future chemical terrorism scenarios.
Throughout history, as new chemical threats arose, strategies for the defense against chemical attacks have also evolved. As a part of an Early Career Laboratory Directed Research and Development project, a systems analysis of past, present, and future chemical terrorism scenarios was performed to understand how the chemical threats and attack strategies change over time. For the analysis, the difficulty in executing chemical attack was evaluated within a framework of three major scenario elements. First, historical examples of chemical terrorism were examined to determine how the use of chemical threats, versus other weapons, contributed to the successful execution of the attack. Using the same framework, the future of chemical terrorism was assessed with respect to the impact of globalization and new technologies. Finally, the efficacy of the current defenses against contemporary chemical terrorism was considered briefly. The results of this analysis justify the need for continued diligence in chemical defense.
Hoette, Trisha Marie
Peru-Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS) | Open Energy Information
Peru-Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS) Peru-Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS) Jump to: navigation, search Logo: Peru-Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS) Name Peru-Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS) Agency/Company /Organization The Children's Investment Fund Foundation, SouthSouthNorth, University of Cape Town-Energy Research Centre, Danish Government Sector Climate, Energy Topics Baseline projection, Low emission development planning, -LEDS, -NAMA, Pathways analysis Website http://www.mapsprogramme.org Program Start 2010 Program End 2013 Country Peru South America References Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS)[1] Contents 1 Overview 2 MAPS Processes and Outcomes 2.1 Chile 2.2 Colombia 2.3 Peru 2.4 Brazil 2.5 Resources 2.5.1 Mitigation Action Country Studies
Deployment Effects of Marine Renewable Energy Technologies: Wave Energy Scenarios
Given proper care in siting, design, deployment, operation and maintenance, wave energy conversion could become one of the more environmentally benign sources of electricity generation. In order to accelerate the adoption of these emerging hydrokinetic and marine energy technologies, navigational and environmental concerns must be identified and addressed. All developing hydrokinetic projects involve a wide variety of stakeholders. One of the key issues that site developers face as they engage with this range of stakeholders is that, due to a lack of technical certainty, many of the possible conflicts (e.g., shipping and fishing) and environmental issues are not well-understood,. In September 2008, re vision consulting, LLC was selected by the Department of Energy (DoE) to apply a scenario-based assessment to the emerging hydrokinetic technology sector in order to evaluate the potential impact of these technologies on the marine environment and navigation constraints. The project�s scope of work includes the establishment of baseline scenarios for wave and tidal power conversion at potential future deployment sites. The scenarios capture variations in technical approaches and deployment scales to properly identify and characterize environmental effects and navigational effects. The goal of the project is to provide all stakeholders with an improved understanding of the potential range of technical attributes and potential effects of these emerging technologies and focus all stakeholders on the critical issues that need to be addressed. By identifying and addressing navigational and environmental concerns in the early stages of the industry�s development, serious mistakes that could potentially derail industry-wide development can be avoided. This groundwork will also help in streamlining siting and associated permitting processes, which are considered key hurdles for the industry�s development in the U.S. today. Re vision is coordinating its efforts with two other project teams funded by DoE which are focused on regulatory issues (Pacific Energy Ventures) and navigational issues (PCCI). The results of this study are structured into three reports: (1) Wave power scenario description (2) Tidal power scenario description (3) Framework for Identifying Key Environmental Concerns This is the first report in the sequence and describes the results of conceptual feasibility studies of wave power plants deployed in Humboldt County, California and Oahu, Hawaii. These two sites contain many of the same competing stakeholder interactions identified at other wave power sites in the U.S. and serve as representative case studies. Wave power remains at an early stage of development. As such, a wide range of different technologies are being pursued by different manufacturers. In order to properly characterize potential effects, it is useful to characterize the range of technologies that could be deployed at the site of interest. An industry survey informed the process of selecting representative wave power devices. The selection criteria requires that devices are at an advanced stage of development to reduce technical uncertainties, and that enough data are available from the manufacturers to inform the conceptual design process of this study. Further, an attempt is made to cover the range of different technologies under development to capture variations in potential environmental effects. Table 1 summarizes the selected wave power technologies. A number of other developers are also at an advanced stage of development, but are not directly mentioned here. Many environmental effects will largely scale with the size of the wave power plant. In many cases, the effects of a single device may not be measurable, while larger scale device arrays may have cumulative impacts that differ significantly from smaller scale deployments. In order to characterize these effects, scenarios are established at three deployment scales which nominally represent (1) a small pilot deployment, (2) a small commercial deployment, and (3) a large commercial sc
Mirko Previsic
Enterprise mobile product strategy using scenario planning
The Mobile industry is changing at a rapid pace and so is the behavior of enterprise workforce which uses mobile technologies. When planning for a long-term product roadmap, one has to consider a myriad of evolution trends and forecasts to determine ... Keywords: Mobile enterprise, product strategy, scenario planning, strategic framework, wireless technology
Sami Muneer; Chetan Sharma
A scenario is used to illustrate the capabilities of a proposed Design Apprentice, focussing on the area of detailed, low-level design. Given a specification, the Design Apprentice will be able to make many of the design decisions needed to synthesize the required program. The Design Apprentice will also be able to detect various kinds of contradictions and omissions in a specifica- tion.
Charles Rich; Richard C. Waters
Scenarios for a Sustainable Transportation Future
· To present some snapshots for diverse suites of options that can meet the target #12;Efficient Biofuels · To determine the most important areas to target · To see the results and tradeoffs resulting from specific, biofuels, efficiency (no alt fuels), transport demand and VMT reduction · 80% Reduction (80in50) Scenarios
California at Davis, University of
Scenarios for a Clean Energy Future ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
was provided by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE of Policy). Additional funding from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Office of AtmosphericScenarios for a Clean Energy Future xxiii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Primary funding for this report
Design Scenarios: Enabling transparent parametric design spaces
This paper presents a novel methodology called Design Scenarios (DSs) intended for use in conceptual design of buildings. DS enables multidisciplinary design teams to streamline the requirements definition, alternative generation, analysis, and decision-making ... Keywords: Conceptual design, Design spaces, Ontology, Parametric modeling, Process mapping, Requirements modeling
Victor Gane; John Haymaker
Biomass Scenario Model | Open Energy Information
Biomass Scenario Model Biomass Scenario Model Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) Agency/Company /Organization: National Renewable Energy Laboratory Partner: Department of Energy (DOE) Office of the Biomass Program Sector: Energy Focus Area: Biomass Phase: Determine Baseline, Evaluate Options Topics: Pathways analysis, Policies/deployment programs, Resource assessment Resource Type: Software/modeling tools User Interface: Desktop Application Website: bsm.nrel.gov/ Country: United States Cost: Free OpenEI Keyword(s): EERE tool, Biomass Scenario Model UN Region: Northern America Coordinates: 37.09024°, -95.712891° Loading map... {"minzoom":false,"mappingservice":"googlemaps3","type":"ROADMAP","zoom":14,"types":["ROADMAP","SATELLITE","HYBRID","TERRAIN"],"geoservice":"google","maxzoom":false,"width":"600px","height":"350px","centre":false,"title":"","label":"","icon":"","visitedicon":"","lines":[],"polygons":[],"circles":[],"rectangles":[],"copycoords":false,"static":false,"wmsoverlay":"","layers":[],"controls":["pan","zoom","type","scale","streetview"],"zoomstyle":"DEFAULT","typestyle":"DEFAULT","autoinfowindows":false,"kml":[],"gkml":[],"fusiontables":[],"resizable":false,"tilt":0,"kmlrezoom":false,"poi":true,"imageoverlays":[],"markercluster":false,"searchmarkers":"","locations":[{"text":"","title":"","link":null,"lat":37.09024,"lon":-95.712891,"alt":0,"address":"","icon":"","group":"","inlineLabel":"","visitedicon":""}]}
Carrots and Sticks: A Comprehensive Business Model for the Successful Achievement of Energy Efficiency Resource Standards
current portfolio of DSM programs (�Business-As-Usual (BAU)�) as well as alternative scenarios that include different energy efficiency and demand
Satchwell, Andrew
California's Carbon Challenge: Scenarios for Achieving 80% Emissions
Carbon Challenge: Scenarios for Achieving 80% Emissions Carbon Challenge: Scenarios for Achieving 80% Emissions Reduction in 2050 Title California's Carbon Challenge: Scenarios for Achieving 80% Emissions Reduction in 2050 Publication Type Report LBNL Report Number LBNL-5448E Year of Publication 2012 Authors Wei, Max, James H. Nelson, Michael K. Ting, Christopher Yang, J. Greenblatt, James E. McMahon, Daniel M. Kammen, Christopher M. Jones, Ana Mileva, Josiah Johnston, and Ranjit Bharvirkar Date Published 10/2012 Abstract Meeting the State of California's 2050 target of 80% lower greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) from a 1990 baseline is a challenging goal that cannot be met without a portfolio of measures and strategies that span both energy demand and energy supply. This study focuses on energy emissions with the target of reducing energy emissions by 80% relative to 1990 energy emissions. Meeting the 2050 target requires both a sustained commitment to aggressively develop existing technologies as well as an aggressive and sustained policy commitment to reshape and ultimately transform the state's energy system. The 2050 GHG target for California appears achievable, but requires significant changes in the way we produce energy, deliver energy services, and utilize energy.
Scenario Evaluation, Regionalization & Analysis (SERA) | Open Energy
Scenario Evaluation, Regionalization & Analysis (SERA) Scenario Evaluation, Regionalization & Analysis (SERA) Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary Name: Scenario Evaluation, Regionalization & Analysis (SERA) Agency/Company /Organization: National Renewable Energy Laboratory Scenario Evaluation, Regionalization & Analysis (SERA) Screenshot Logo: Scenario Evaluation, Regionalization & Analysis (SERA) SERA (Scenario Evaluation, Regionalization & Analysis) is a geospatially and temporally oriented infrastructure analysis model that determines the optimal production and delivery scenarios for hydrogen, given resource availability and technology cost. Given annual H2 demands on a city-by-city basis, forecasts of feedstock costs, and a catalog of available hydrogen production and transportation technologies, the model generates
A lifestyle-based scenario, Energy Policy A lifestyle-based scenario for U.S. buildings
A lifestyle-based scenario, Energy Policy A lifestyle-based scenario for U.S. buildings the speculative nature of the #12;A lifestyle-based scenario, Energy Policy exercise, the rationale was to broaden implications of these changes, and how might we create energy policies to 2 #12;A lifestyle-based scenario
Diamond, Richard
Transportation in Developing Countries: Greenhouse Gas Scenarios for Delhi, India
hand, compressed natural gas (CNG) and liquefied petroleumcost of owning and operating CNG and LPG vehicles couldto store the fuels. Each CNG bus, for example, currently
Transportation in Developing Countries: Greenhouse Gas Scenarios for Shanghai, China
engines are re-optimized for CNG and are calculated on amanufacturing the engine), then CNG would produce even moreChina natural gas (CNG). The taxi fleet is currently being
Zhou, Hongchang; Sperling, Daniel
and polluting coal-fired plants to generate electricity.that in 1995, Indian coal-fired plants were 29 percent
oxides per kWh as do coal-fired plants in the United States.report that Chinese coal-fired plants were about 29 percentthat Chinese coal- fired power plants emit at least three
Progress in Developing ITER Operational Scenarios on DIII-D
Bull. Am. Phys. Soc. 54, 305 (2009)51st American Physical Society Annual Meeting of Division of Plasma Physics Atlanta Georgia, US, 2009999616745
Doyle, E.J.
Development of Advanced Inductive Scenarios for ITER (A26898)
Proceedings Of 23rd IAEA Fusion Energy Conference, October 11-16, 2010, Daejeon, Republic Of Korea, Http://www-pub.iaea.org/mtcd/meetings/cn180_papers.asp, Paper EXC/P3-0523rd IAEA Fusion Energy Conference Daejeon, KP, 2010999617710
Luce, T.C.
Develop common vision of "no action" scenario through 2050 |...
Diesel Car CNG Car Electric Car Diesel Bus Gasoline Bus CNGstroke) Electric Motor Scooter Gasoline Minicar Gasoline Careasier to park than cars. Several electric scooter companies
Scenarios for Benefits Analysis of Energy Research, Development, Demonstration,
Energy, Office of Planning, Budget and Analysis of the U.S. Department of Energy under Contract No. DE of Planning, Budget and Analysis Assistant Secretary for Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy U.S of Planning, Budget and Analysis of the U.S. Department of Energy under Contract No. DE-AC03-76SF00098. #12;ii
Mobile IPv6 bootstrapping in split scenario
This document specifies an Internet standards track protocol for the Internet community, and requests discussion and suggestions for improvements. Please refer to the current edition of the "Internet Official Protocol Standards " (STD 1) for the standardization state and status of this protocol. Distribution of this memo is unlimited. A Mobile IPv6 node requires a Home Agent address, a home address, and IPsec security associations with its Home Agent before it can start utilizing Mobile IPv6 service. RFC 3775 requires that some or all of these are statically configured. This document defines how a Mobile IPv6 node can bootstrap this information from non-topological information and security credentials pre-configured on the Mobile Node. The solution defined in this document solves the split scenario described in the Mobile IPv6 bootstrapping problem statement in RFC 4640. The split scenario refers to the case where the Mobile
G. Giaretta; J. Kempf; V. Devarapalli
Executive Summary High-Yield Scenario Workshop Series Report
To get a collective sense of the impact of research and development (R&D) on biomass resource availability, and to determine the feasibility that yields higher than baseline assumptions used for past assessments could be achieved to support U.S. energy independence, an alternate �High-Yield Scenario� (HYS) concept was presented to industry experts at a series of workshops held in December 2009. The workshops explored future production of corn/agricultural crop residues, herbaceous energy crops (HECs), and woody energy crops (WECs). This executive summary reports the findings of that workshop.
Leslie Park Ovard; Thomas H. Ulrich; David J. Muth Jr.; J. Richard Hess; Steven Thomas; Bryce Stokes
Blackbody radiation in a nonextensive scenario
An exact analysis of the N-dimensional blackbody radiation process in a nonextensive � la Tsallis scenario is performed for values of the nonextensive�s index in the range (0 < q < 1). The recently advanced �Optimal Lagrange Multipliers � (OLM) technique has been employed. The results are consistent with those of the extensive, q = 1 case. The generalization of the celebrated laws of Planck, Stefan-Boltzmann, and Wien are investigated.
S. Mart�nez; F. Pennini; A. Plastino; C. Tessone
An Experiment on Graph Analysis Methodologies for Scenarios
Visual graph representations are increasingly used to represent, display, and explore scenarios and the structure of organizations. The graph representations of scenarios are readily understood, and commercial software is available to create and manage these representations. The purpose of the research presented in this paper is to explore whether these graph representations support quantitative assessments of the underlying scenarios. The underlying structure of the scenarios is the information that is being targeted in the experiment and the extent to which the scenarios are similar in content. An experiment was designed that incorporated both the contents of the scenarios and analysts� graph representations of the scenarios. The scenarios� content was represented graphically by analysts, and both the structure and the semantics of the graph representation were attempted to be used to understand the content. The structure information was not found to be discriminating for the content of the scenarios in this experiment; but, the semantic information was discriminating.
Brothers, Alan J.; Whitney, Paul D.; Wolf, Katherine E.; Kuchar, Olga A.; Chin, George
Illustrative Scenarios Tool (European Union) | Open Energy Information
Illustrative Scenarios Tool (European Union) Illustrative Scenarios Tool (European Union) Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Illustrative Scenarios Tool (European Union) Focus Area: Propane Topics: Opportunity Assessment & Screening Website: www.eutransportghg2050.eu/cms/illustrative-scenarios-tool/ Equivalent URI: cleanenergysolutions.org/content/illustrative-scenarios-tool-european- Language: English Policies: "Deployment Programs,Regulations" is not in the list of possible values (Deployment Programs, Financial Incentives, Regulations) for this property. DeploymentPrograms: Technical Assistance Regulations: Emissions Standards The SUstainabLe TrANsport (SULTAN) Illustrative Scenarios Tool is a high-level calculator to help provide estimates of the possible impacts of
South Africa-Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS) | Open Energy
Page Page Edit with form History Facebook icon Twitter icon » South Africa-Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS) Jump to: navigation, search Logo: Argentina-Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS) Name Argentina-Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS) Agency/Company /Organization The Children's Investment Fund Foundation, SouthSouthNorth, University of Cape Town-Energy Research Centre, Danish Government Sector Climate, Energy Topics Baseline projection, Low emission development planning, -LEDS, -NAMA, Pathways analysis Website http://www.mapsprogramme.org Program Start 2010 Program End 2013 Country South Africa Southern Africa References Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS)[1] Contents 1 Overview 2 MAPS Processes and Outcomes 2.1 Chile
Underground infrastructure damage for a Chicago scenario
Estimating effects due to an urban IND (improvised nuclear device) on underground structures and underground utilities is a challenging task. Nuclear effects tests performed at the Nevada Test Site (NTS) during the era of nuclear weapons testing provides much information on how underground military structures respond. Transferring this knowledge to answer questions about the urban civilian environment is needed to help plan responses to IND scenarios. Explosions just above the ground surface can only couple a small fraction of the blast energy into an underground shock. The various forms of nuclear radiation have limited penetration into the ground. While the shock transmitted into the ground carries only a small fraction of the blast energy, peak stresses are generally higher and peak ground displacement is lower than in the air blast. While underground military structures are often designed to resist stresses substantially higher than due to the overlying rocks and soils (overburden), civilian structures such as subways and tunnels would generally only need to resist overburden conditions with a suitable safety factor. Just as we expect the buildings themselves to channel and shield air blast above ground, basements and other underground openings as well as changes of geology will channel and shield the underground shock wave. While a weaker shock is expected in an urban environment, small displacements on very close-by faults, and more likely, soils being displaced past building foundations where utility lines enter could readily damaged or disable these services. Immediately near an explosion, the blast can 'liquefy' a saturated soil creating a quicksand-like condition for a period of time. We extrapolate the nuclear effects experience to a Chicago-based scenario. We consider the TARP (Tunnel and Reservoir Project) and subway system and the underground lifeline (electric, gas, water, etc) system and provide guidance for planning this scenario.
Dey, Thomas N [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Bos, Rabdall J [Los Alamos National Laboratory
Empirically Downscaled Multimodel Ensemble Temperature and Precipitation Scenarios for Norway
A number of different global climate model scenarios are used in order to infer local climate scenarios for various locations in Norway. Results from empirically downscaled multimodel ensembles of temperature and precipitation for the period 2000�...
Rasmus E. Benestad
Modeling Clean and Secure Energy Scenarios for the Indian Power...
Clean and Secure Energy Scenarios for the Indian Power Sector in 2030 Title Modeling Clean and Secure Energy Scenarios for the Indian Power Sector in 2030 Publication Type Report...
Scenario-Driven Training | Y-12 National Security Complex
Scenario-Driven Training Scenario-Driven Training An initial entry team member assesses the overall hazards in a clandestine lab. Y-12's Nuclear and Radiological Field Training...
FCT Systems Analysis: 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen...
-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure to someone by E-mail Share FCT Systems Analysis: 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell...
FCT Systems Analysis: DOE 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis Meeting...
to someone by E-mail Share FCT Systems Analysis: DOE 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis Meeting: January 31, 2007 on Facebook Tweet about FCT Systems Analysis: DOE 2010-2025 Scenario...
Integrated Operation Scenarios ITPA Topical Group Meeting | Princeton...
20, 2010, 9:00am to April 23, 2010, 5:00pm Conference Princeton, NJ Integrated Operation Scenarios ITPA Topical Group Meeting Integrated Operation Scenarios ITPA Topical Group...
Review of potential EGS sites and possible EGS demonstration scenarios
Review of potential sites for Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) and development of reference scenarios for EGS demonstration projects are two sub-tasks included in the FY 1999 EGS Research and Development (R&D) Management Task (DOE Task Order Number DE-AT07-99ID60365, included in the Appendix of this report). These sub-tasks are consistent with the EGS Strategic Plan, which includes milestones relating to EGS site selection (Milestone 4, to be completed in 2004) and development of a cost-shared, pilot-scale demonstration project (Milestone 5, to be completed in 2008). The purpose of the present work is to provide some reference points for discussing what type of EGS projects might be undertaken, where they might be located, and what the associated benefits are likely to be. The review of potential EGS sites is presented in Chapter 2 of this report. It draws upon site-selection criteria (and potential project sites that were identified using those criteria) developed at a mini-workshop held at the April 1998 DOE Geothermal Program Review to discuss EGS R&D issues. The criteria and the sites were the focus of a paper presented at the 4th International Hot Dry Rock Forum in Strasbourg in September 1998 (Sass and Robertson-Tait, 1998). The selection criteria, project sites and possible EGS developments discussed in the workshop and paper are described in more detail herein. Input from geothermal operators is incorporated, and water availability and transmission-line access are emphasized. The reference scenarios for EGS demonstration projects are presented in Chapter 3. Three alternative scenarios are discussed: (1) a stand-alone demonstration plant in an area with no existing geothermal development; (2) a separate generating facility adjacent to an existing geothermal development; and (3) an EGS project that supplies an existing geothermal power plant with additional generating capacity. Furthermore, information potentially useful to DOE in framing solicitations and selecting projects for funding is discussed objectively. Although defined as separate sub-tasks, the EGS site review and reference scenarios are closely related. The incremental approach to EGS development that has recently been adopted could logically be expected to yield proposals for studies that lead up to and include production-enhancement experiments in producing geothermal fields in the very near future. However, the strategic plan clearly calls for the development of a more comprehensive demonstration project that can generate up to perhaps 10 MW (gross). It is anticipated that a series of small-scale experiments will define what realistically may be achieved in the near future, thus setting the stage for a successful pilot demonstration. This report continues the process of presenting information on EGS sites and experiments, and begins the process of defining what a demonstration project might be.
Global projections for anthropogenic reactive nitrogen emissions to the atmosphere: an assessment of scenarios in the scientific literature
Most long-term scenarios of global N emissions are produced by Integrated Assessment Models in the context of climate change assessment. The scenarios indicate that N emissions are likely to increase in the next decades, followed by a stabilization or decline. Critical factors for future N emissions are the development of the underlying drivers (especially fertilizer use, animal husbandry, transport and power generation), air pollution control policy and climate policy. The new scenarios made for climate change assessment, the Representative Concentration Pathways - RCPs, are not representative of the range of possible N-emission projections. A more focused development of scenarios for air pollution may improve the relevance and quality of the scenarios.
Van Vuuren, Detlef; Bouwman, Lex; Smith, Steven J.; Dentener, Frank
Biomass Scenario Model Documentation: Data and References
The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model that represents the entire biomass-to-biofuels supply chain, from feedstock to fuel use. The BSM is a complex model that has been used for extensive analyses; the model and its results can be better understood if input data used for initialization and calibration are well-characterized. It has been carefully validated and calibrated against the available data, with data gaps filled in using expert opinion and internally consistent assumed values. Most of the main data sources that feed into the model are recognized as baseline values by the industry. This report documents data sources and references in Version 2 of the BSM (BSM2), which only contains the ethanol pathway, although subsequent versions of the BSM contain multiple conversion pathways. The BSM2 contains over 12,000 total input values, with 506 distinct variables. Many of the variables are opportunities for the user to define scenarios, while others are simply used to initialize a stock, such as the initial number of biorefineries. However, around 35% of the distinct variables are defined by external sources, such as models or reports. The focus of this report is to provide insight into which sources are most influential in each area of the supply chain.
Lin, Y.; Newes, E.; Bush, B.; Peterson, S.; Stright, D.
Automated Prototyping of User Interfaces Based on UML Scenarios
User interface (UI) prototyping and scenario engineering have become popular techniques. Yet, the transition from scenario to formal specifications and the generation of UI code is still ill-defined and essentially a manual task, and the two techniques ... Keywords: Unified Modeling Language, scenario engineering, user interface prototyping
Mohammed Elkoutbi; Isma�l Khriss; Rudolf K. Keller
Renewable Energy Scenarios for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
demand, since manufacturing wind turbines is not as energy-intensive as the production of solar (silicon, etc. associated with the operation of wind turbines. Moreover, despite a number of previous 22 6.4 Other Issues 23 7. Scenarios Narratives 24 7.1 Blue Scenarios 24 7.2 Yellow Scenarios 25 7
Watson, Andrew
Synthesizing hierarchical state machines from expressive scenario descriptions
There are many examples in the literature of algorithms for synthesizing state machines from scenario-based models. The motivation for these is to automate the transition from scenario-based requirements to early behavioral design models. To date, however, ... Keywords: State machine synthesis, interaction overview diagrams, scenario-based requirements, software modeling
Jon Whittle; Praveen K. Jayaraman
During 1999, the U.S. Department of Energy, in conjunction with its nuclear laboratories, a national steering committee, and a panel of world experts, developed a roadmap for research, development, demonstration, and deployment of Accelerator-driven Transmutation of Waste (ATW). The ATW concept that was examined in this roadmap study was based on that developed at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) during the 1990s. The reference deployment scenario in the Roadmap was developed to treat 86,300 tn (metric tonnes initial heavy metal) of spent nuclear fuel that will accumulate through 2035 from existing U.S. nuclear power plants (without license extensions). The disposition of this spent nuclear reactor fuel is an issue of national importance, as is disposition of spent fuel in other nations. The U.S. program for the disposition of this once-through fuel is focused to characterize a candidate site at Yucca Mountain, Nevada for a geological repository for spent fuel and high-level waste. The ATW concept is being examined in the U.S. because removal of plutonium minor actinides, and two very long-lived isotopes from the spent fuel can achieve some important objectives. These objectives include near-elimination of plutonium, reduction of the inventory and mobility of long-lived radionuclides in the repository, and use of the remaining energy content of the spent fuel to produce power. The long-lived radionuclides iodine and technetium have roughly one million year half-lives, and they are candidates for transport into the environment via movement of ground water. The scientists and engineers who contributed to the Roadmap Study determined that the ATW is affordable, doable, and its deployment would support all the objectives. We report the status of the U.S. ATW program describe baseline and alternate technologies, and discuss deployment scenarios to support the existing U.S. nuclear capability and/or future growth with a variety of new fuel cycles.
A lifestyle-based scenario, Energy Policy A lifestyle-based scenario for U.S. buildings, and how might we create energy policies to take these changes into account. The assumption here environment. #12;A lifestyle-based scenario, Energy Policy 2 2. Methodology Forecasts for energy use
Long-term land use future scenarios for the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory
In order to facilitate decision regarding environmental restoration activities at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL), the United States Department of Energy, Idaho Operations Office (DOE-ID) conducted analyses to project reasonable future land use scenarios at the INEL for the next 100 years. The methodology for generating these scenarios included: review of existing DOE plans, policy statements, and mission statements pertaining to the INEL; review of surrounding land use characteristics and county developments policies; solicitation of input from local, county, state and federal planners, policy specialists, environmental professionals, and elected officials; and review of environmental and development constraints at the INEL site that could influence future land use.
Laboratory. Natural Gas Price Scenarios Among activelys 2004 IRP includes three gas price scenarios. As shownwellhead price in the High gas price scenario is $1.43/Mcf
H2A Delivery Scenario Model and Analyses
H2A Delivery Scenario Model H2A Delivery Scenario Model and Analyses Marianne Mintz and Jerry Gillette DOE Hydrogen Delivery Analysis and High Pressure Tanks R&D Project Review Meeting February 8, 2005 2 Pioneering Science and Technology Office of Science U.S. Department of Energy Topics * Delivery Scenarios - Current status - Future scenarios * Delivery Scenarios model - Approach - Structure - Current status - Results * Pipeline modeling - Approach - Key assumptions - Results * Next Steps 3 Pioneering Science and Technology Office of Science U.S. Department of Energy Delivery Scenarios 4 Pioneering Science and Technology Office of Science U.S. Department of Energy Three-Quarters of the US Population Reside in Urbanized Areas East of the Mississippi there are many large, proximate urban areas. In the West
Greenhouse Gas Initiative Scenario Database | Open Energy Information
Greenhouse Gas Initiative Scenario Database Greenhouse Gas Initiative Scenario Database Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary Name: Greenhouse Gas Initiative Scenario Database Agency/Company /Organization: Science for Global Insight Sector: Climate, Energy, Land Topics: Baseline projection, GHG inventory, Pathways analysis Resource Type: Dataset, Online calculator, Software/modeling tools User Interface: Website Website: www.iiasa.ac.at/web-apps/ggi/GgiDb/dsd?Action=htmlpage&page=about Cost: Free References: Greenhouse Gas Initiative Scenario Database[1] The GGI (Greenhouse Gas Initiative) scenario database documents the results of a set of greenhouse gas emission scenarios that were created using the IIASA Integrated Assessment Modeling Framework and previously documented in a special issue of the Technological Forecasting and Social Change.
Undulator Hall Air Temperature Fault Scenarios
Recent experience indicates that the LCLS undulator segments must not, at any time following tuning, be allowed to change temperature by more than about {+-}2.5 C or the magnetic center will irreversibly shift outside of acceptable tolerances. This vulnerability raises a concern that under fault conditions the ambient temperature in the Undulator Hall might go outside of the safe range and potentially could require removal and retuning of all the segments. In this note we estimate changes that can be expected in the Undulator Hall air temperature for three fault scenarios: (1) System-wide power failure; (2) Heating Ventilation and Air Conditioning (HVAC) system shutdown; and (3) HVAC system temperature regulation fault. We find that for either a system-wide power failure or an HVAC system shutdown (with the technical equipment left on), the short-term temperature changes of the air would be modest due to the ability of the walls and floor to act as a heat ballast. No action would be needed to protect the undulator system in the event of a system-wide power failure. Some action to adjust the heat balance, in the case of the HVAC power failure with the equipment left on, might be desirable but is not required. On the other hand, a temperature regulation failure of the HVAC system can quickly cause large excursions in air temperature and prompt action would be required to avoid damage to the undulator system.
Sevilla, J.
A scenario-based approach towards open collaboration for policy modelling
In the context of current increasing variety, interconnectivity and alteration, many methods and tools for planning and decision-making such as time series analysis and trend extrapolation do not longer work out. Along the demands for good governance ... Keywords: open collaboration, policy development, scenario building, stakeholder involvement
Melanie Bicking; Maria A. Wimmer
A Method for Evaluating Fire After Earthquake Scenarios for Single...
Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site
using statistical methods to determine some aspects of the bounding scenario. Historical weather data has been used in dispersion calculations to determine the 95 th percentile...
Mapping Climate Change Vulnerability and Impact Scenarios - A...
Mapping Climate Change Vulnerability and Impact Scenarios - A Guidebook for Sub-national Planners Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary Name: Mapping Climate Change...
Enduse Global Emissions Mitigation Scenarios (EGEMS): A New Generation...
Appliance Efficiency, bottom-up, china, emissions scenarios, end use, energy demand, forecasting, greenhouse gas emissions, india, modelling, Multi-Country, refrigerators URL...
Climate Change Mitigation: An Analysis of Advanced Technology Scenarios
This report documents a scenario analysis that explores three advanced technology pathways toward climate stabilization using the MiniCAM model.
Clarke, Leon E.; Wise, Marshall A.; Placet, Marylynn; Izaurralde, R Cesar; Lurz, Joshua P.; Kim, Son H.; Smith, Steven J.; Thomson, Allison M.
Geographically-Based Hydrogen Demand & Infrastructure Rollout Scenario Analysis (Presentation)
This presentation by Margo Melendez at the 2007 DOE Hydrogen Program Annual Merit Review Meeting provides information about NREL's Hydrogen Demand & Infrastructure Rollout Scenario Analysis.
Melendez, M.
Neutronic Study of Slightly Modified Water Reactors and Application to Transition Scenarios
In this paper we have studied slightly modified water reactors and their applications to transition scenarios. The PWR and CANDU reactors have been considered. New fuels based on Thorium have been tested: Thorium/Plutonium and Thorium/Uranium- 233, with different fissile isotope contents. Changes in the geometry of the assemblies were also explored to modify the moderation ratio, and consequently the neutron flux spectrum. A core equivalent assembly methodology was introduced as an exploratory approach and to reduce the computation time. Several basic safety analyses were also performed. We have finally developed a new scenario code, named OSCAR (Optimized Scenario Code for Advanced Reactors), to study the efficiency of these modified reactors in transition to Gen IV reactors or in symbiotic fleet. (authors)
Chambon, Richard; Guillemin, Perrine; Nuttin, Alexis; Bidaud, A. [LPSC, Universite Joseph Fourier Grenoble 1, CNRS/IN2P3, Institut National Polytechnique de Grenoble 53 Av. Des Martyrs, 38000 Grenoble (France); Capellan, N.; David, S.; Meplan, O.; Wilson, J. [Institut de Physique Nucleaire - IPN, 15 rue Georges Clemenceau 91406 Orsay (France)
Electrification and Mitigation: Long-Term GHG Deep-Cut Scenario Compatible
Electrification and Mitigation: Long-Term GHG Deep-Cut Scenario Compatible Electrification and Mitigation: Long-Term GHG Deep-Cut Scenario Compatible with Economic Development Speaker(s): Taishi Sugiyama Date: August 6, 2007 - 12:00pm Location: 90-3122 Seminar Host/Point of Contact: Lynn Price We have analyzed scenarios of Japanese energy systems in the 21st century with special focus on the electrification and climate change mitigation. We have described the causality pathway as to how the major drivers will have impacts on the structure of energy systems and found the followings: (1) Steady electrification in the building sector is expected driven by technological progresses and social change in the absence of climate change policy; (2) With strong greenhouse gas emission constraints, the combination of accelerated electrification across all sectors and
Preliminary phenomena identification and ranking tables for simplified boiling water reactor Loss-of-Coolant Accident scenarios
For three potential Loss-of-Coolant Accident (LOCA) scenarios in the General Electric Simplified Boiling Water Reactors (SBWR) a set of Phenomena Identification and Ranking Tables (PIRT) is presented. The selected LOCA scenarios are typical for the class of small and large breaks generally considered in Safety Analysis Reports. The method used to develop the PIRTs is described. Following is a discussion of the transient scenarios, the PIRTs are presented and discussed in detailed and in summarized form. A procedure for future validation of the PIRTs, to enhance their value, is outlined. 26 refs., 25 figs., 44 tabs.
Kroeger, P.G.; Rohatgi, U.S.; Jo, J.H.; Slovik, G.C.
Non-Standard Structure Formation Scenarios
Observations on galactic scales seem to be in contradiction with recent high resolution N-body simulations. This so-called cold dark matter (CDM) crisis has been addressed in several ways, ranging from a change in fundamental physics by introducing self-interacting cold dark matter particles to a tuning of complex astrophysical processes such as global and/or local feedback. All these efforts attempt to soften density profiles and reduce the abundance of satellites in simulated galaxy halos. In this contribution we are exploring the differences between a Warm Dark Matter model and a CDM model where the power on a certain scale is reduced by introducing a narrow negative feature (''dip''). This dip is placed in a way so as to mimic the loss of power in the WDM model: both models have the same integrated power out to the scale where the power of the Dip model rises to the level of the unperturbed CDM spectrum again. Using N-body simulations we show that that the new Dip model appears to be a viable alternative to WDM while being based on different physics: where WDM requires the introduction of a new particle species the Dip stems from a non-standard inflationary period. If we are looking for an alternative to the currently challenged standard LCDM structure formation scenario, neither the LWDM nor the new Dip model can be ruled out with respect to the analysis presented in this contribution. They both make very similar predictions and the degeneracy between them can only be broken with observations yet to come.
Alexander Knebe; Brett Little; Ranty Islam; Julien Devriendt; Asim Mahmood; Joe Silk
and Renewable Energy (EERE) has had a longstanding goal ofunder development by EERE have a considerable advantage inintroducing uncertainty into EERE�s forecasting in a manner
OpenEI Community - energy scenarios
new publications new publications help advance renewable energy development http://en.openei.org/community/blog/four-new-publications-help-advance-renewable-energy-development Four publications giving guidance to policy and decision makers on particular challenges facing renewable energy deployment were released yesterday. As renewable energy becomes more competitive with fossil fuels in OECD countries, reports of this nature can go a long way to supporting more and more development. The four new reports in short:development"
Appendix E: Other NEMS-MP results for the base case and scenarios.
The NEMS-MP model generates numerous results for each run of a scenario. (This model is the integrated National Energy Modeling System [NEMS] version used for the Multi-Path Transportation Futures Study [MP].) This appendix examines additional findings beyond the primary results reported in the Multi-Path Transportation Futures Study: Vehicle Characterization and Scenario Analyses (Reference 1). These additional results are provided in order to help further illuminate some of the primary results. Specifically discussed in this appendix are: (1) Energy use results for light vehicles (LVs), including details about the underlying total vehicle miles traveled (VMT), the average vehicle fuel economy, and the volumes of the different fuels used; (2) Resource fuels and their use in the production of ethanol, hydrogen (H{sub 2}), and electricity; (3) Ethanol use in the scenarios (i.e., the ethanol consumption in E85 vs. other blends, the percent of travel by flex fuel vehicles on E85, etc.); (4) Relative availability of E85 and H2 stations; (5) Fuel prices; (6) Vehicle prices; and (7) Consumer savings. These results are discussed as follows: (1) The three scenarios (Mixed, (P)HEV & Ethanol, and H2 Success) when assuming vehicle prices developed through literature review; (2) The three scenarios with vehicle prices that incorporate the achievement of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) program vehicle cost goals; (3) The three scenarios with 'literature review' vehicle prices, plus vehicle subsidies; and (4) The three scenarios with 'program goals' vehicle prices, plus vehicle subsidies. The four versions or cases of each scenario are referred to as: Literature Review No Subsidies, Program Goals No Subsidies, Literature Review with Subsidies, and Program Goals with Subsidies. Two additional points must be made here. First, none of the results presented for LVs in this section include Class 2B trucks. Results for this class are included occasionally in Reference 1. They represent a small, though noticeable, segment of the 'LV plus 2B' market (e.g., a little more than 3% of today's energy use in that market). We generally do not include them in this discussion, simply because it requires additional effort to combine the NEMS-MP results for them with the results for the other LVs. (Where there is an exception, we will indicate so.) Second, where reference is made to E85, the ethanol content is actually 74%. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) assumes that, to address cold-starting issues, the percent of ethanol in E85 will vary seasonally. The EIA uses an annual average ethanol content of 74% in its forecasts. That assumption is maintained in the NEMS-MP scenario runs.
Plotkin, S. E.; Singh, M. K.; Energy Systems
Statistical Analysis of Traffic Measurements in a Disaster Area Scenario
challenges of information sharing in OOH [Out-of-Hospital] disaster response."([1]) Performance evaluationStatistical Analysis of Traffic Measurements in a Disaster Area Scenario Considering Heavy Load-- Catastrophes cause an area of destruction including destroyed infrastructure. These disaster area scenarios
Frank, Matthias
Modular analysis and modelling of risk scenarios with dependencies
The risk analysis of critical infrastructures such as the electric power supply or telecommunications is complicated by the fact that such infrastructures are mutually dependent. We propose a modular approach to the modelling and analysis of risk scenarios ... Keywords: Critical infrastructure, Dependency, Modular risk analysis, Risk scenario, Threat modelling
Gyrd Br�ndeland; Atle Refsdal; Ketil St�len
Scenarios for a Clean Energy Future Industry 5.1
In this chapter we present scenarios for future industrial energy use, based on different assumptions for U.S. energy policies. We start with a reference scenario which is derived from the AEO99 (U.S. DOE, EIA, 1998a of primary energy, accounting for 37% of the primary energy consumed in the U.S. that year. The industrial
(3) Framework for Identifying Key Environmental Concerns This is the first report in the sequence and describes the results of conceptual feasibility studies of wave power plants deployed in Humboldt County, California and Oahu, Hawaii. These two sites contain many of the same competing stakeholder interactions identified at other wave power sites in the U.S. and serve as representative case studies. Wave power remains at an early stage of development. As such, a wide range of different technologies are being pursued by different manufacturers. In order to properly characterize potential effects, it is useful to characterize the range of technologies that could be deployed at the site of interest. An industry survey informed the process of selecting representative wave power devices. The selection criteria requires that devices are at an advanced stage of development to reduce technical uncertainties, and that enough data are available from the manufacturers to inform the conceptual design process of this study. Further, an attempt is made to cover the range of different technologies under development to capture variations in potential environmental effects. Table 1 summarizes the selected wave power technologies. A number of other developers are also at an advanced stage of development, but are not directly mentioned here. Many environmental effects will largely scale with the size of the wave power plant. In many cases, the effects of a single device may not be measurable, while larger scale device arrays may have cumulative impacts that differ significantly from smaller scale deployments. In order to characterize these effects, scenarios are established at three deployment scales which nominally represent (1) a small pilot deployment, (2) a small commercial deployment, and (3) a large commercial sc
US National Climate Assessment (NCA) Scenarios for Assessing Our Climate Future: Issues and Methodological Perspectives Background Whitepaper for Participants
This whitepaper is intended to provide a starting point for discussion at a workshop for the National Climate Assessment (NCA) that focuses on the use and development of scenarios. The paper will provide background needed by participants in the workshop in order to review options for developing and using scenarios in NCA. The paper briefly defines key terms and establishes a conceptual framework for developing consistent scenarios across different end uses and spatial scales. It reviews uses of scenarios in past U.S. national assessments and identifies potential users of and needs for scenarios for both the report scheduled for release in June 2013 and to support an ongoing distributed assessment process in sectors and regions around the country. Because scenarios prepared for the NCA will need to leverage existing research, the paper takes account of recent scientific advances and activities that could provide needed inputs. Finally, it considers potential approaches for providing methods, data, and other tools for assessment participants. We note that the term 'scenarios' has many meanings. An important goal of the whitepaper (and portions of the workshop agenda) is pedagogical (i.e., to compare different meanings and uses of the term and make assessment participants aware of the need to be explicit about types and uses of scenarios). In climate change research, scenarios have been used to establish bounds for future climate conditions and resulting effects on human and natural systems, given a defined level of greenhouse gas emissions. This quasi-predictive use contrasts with the way decision analysts typically use scenarios (i.e., to consider how robust alternative decisions or strategies may be to variation in key aspects of the future that are uncertain). As will be discussed, in climate change research and assessment, scenarios describe a range of aspects of the future, including major driving forces (both human activities and natural processes), changes in climate and related environmental conditions (e.g., sea level), and evolution of societal capability to respond to climate change. This wide range of scenarios is needed because the implications of climate change for the environment and society depend not only on changes in climate themselves, but also on human responses. This degree of breadth introduces and number of challenges for communication and research.
Moss, Richard H.; Engle, Nathan L.; Hall, John; Jacobs, Kathy; Lempert, Rob; Mearns, L. O.; Melillo, Jerry; Mote, Phil; O'Brien, Sheila; Rosenzweig, C.; Ruane, Alex; Sheppard, Stephen; Vallario, Robert W.; Wiek, Arnim; Wilbanks, Thomas
Mosaik: scalable smart grid scenario specification
The development of control strategies for the Smart Grid, the future electricity grid, relies heavily on modeling and simulation for being able to evaluate and optimize these strategies in a cost efficient, secure and timely way. To generate sound simulation ...
Steffen Sch�tte; Michael Sonnenschein
Energy Demand and Emissions in Building in China: Scenarios and Policy Options
Recent rapid growth of energy use in China exerts great pressure on the energy supply and environment. This study provides scenarios of future energy development in buildings, including urban residential, rural residential and service sectors (not including transport), taking into account the most up-to-date data and recent policy discussions that will affect future economic, population, and energy supply trends. To understand the role of policy options including technology options and countermeasures, two scenarios were defined, which represent the range of plausible futures for energy development in buildings. This is also part of an energy and emission scenario study for the IPAC (Integrated Policy Assessment Model for China) modeling team. The results from quantitative analysis show that energy demand in buildings in China could increase quickly, as high as 666 million in 2030. However, policies and technologies could contribute a lot to energy demand savings, which could be 28% energy savings compared with the baseline scenario. There is still space for further energy savings if more advanced technologies could be fully diffused.
Kejun, J.; Xiulian, H.
Toward a national plan for the commercialization of solar energy: price/demand scenarios and projections of solar utilization under the National Energy Act
Three macroeconomic scenarios were developed as an economic backdrop for projecting solar technology market acceptance under various government policies and commercialization programs. These scenarios assume three levels of future world oil prices - $18, $25 and $32 per barrel (1976 $) in the year 2000. This range is intended to encompass the most likely set of energy futures. The scenarios are discussed in terms of their underlying assumptions and changes in fuel and resource consumption by sector of the economy. Estimates of the future utilization of solar technologies for the mid-price scenarios are given. These estimates are based on the solar subsidies and incentive programs in the National Energy Act.
Rebibo, K. K.
Climate Change and the Macroeconomy in the Caribbean Basin: Analysis...
billion in 2099 (constant 1990 prices) for the B2 scenario and US21 billion for the BAU scenario. These costs were calculated on the basis of very conservative estimates of the...
Indigenous knowledge organization: An Indian scenario
The basic component of any country's knowledge system is its Indigenous Knowledge (IK). This paper presents an overview of IK by defining it as a local and tacit knowledge that is unique to a given culture or society and forms the basis for local-level ... Keywords: IK initiatives, Indigenous knowledge, Protection and India, Social development
Siriginidi Subba Rao
and Chris Marnay2 1. Background The Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) has had, and because intuitively many of the technologies under development by EERE have a considerable advantage for introducing uncertainty into EERE's forecasting in a manner consistent with the preceding observation. The two
Hidden Higgs Scenarios: new constraints and prospects at the LHC
We review the motivation for hidden Higgs scenarios and discuss the light CP odd Higgs scenario in the NMSSM as an example. We summarize experimental constraints including recent limits from BaBar and Aleph. The main part of the talk is the discussion of dominant decay modes of the standard model like Higgs boson, and related decay modes of the charged Higgs and heavy CP even Higgs bosons, in these scenarios with the focus on signatures and prospects for the LHC. Examples include the direct production of a light CP odd Higgs boson, and a light charged Higgs boson in top quark decays.
Radovan Dermisek
A New Global Set of Downscaled Temperature Scenarios
A new set of empirical�statistical downscaled seasonal mean temperature scenarios is presented for locations spread across all continents. These results are based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) simulations, the ...
Learning from vacuously satisfiable scenario-based specifications
Scenarios and use cases are popular means for supporting requirements elicitation and elaboration. They provide examples of how the system-to-be and its environment can interact. However, such descriptions, when large, are cumbersome to reason about, ...
Dalal Alrajeh; Jeff Kramer; Alessandra Russo; Sebastian Uchitel
Climate Change Scenarios for the U.S. National Assessment
In support of the U.S. National Assessment of the Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change, climate scenarios were prepared to serve as the basis for evaluating the vulnerability of environmental and societal systems to changes ...
Michael C. Maccracken; Eric J. Barron; David R. Easterling; Benjamin S. Felzer; Thomas R. Karl
The U.S. Department of Energy sponsored a 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure Meeting in Washington, DC, on August 9-10, 2006. The...
The U.S. Department of Energy sponsored a 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure Meeting in Washington, DC, on January 31, 2007. This third...
Late Pleistocene Ice Age Scenarios Based on Observational Evidence
Ice age scenarios for the last glacial-interglacial cycle, based on observations of Boyle and Keigwin concerning the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation and of Barnola et al. concerning atmospheric C02 variations derived from the Vostok ice ...
G. DeBlonde; W. R. Peltier
A Method for Evaluating Fire after Earthquake Scenarios for Single...
DOENNSA LANS Company Sensitive - unauthorized release or dissemination prohibited U N C L A S S I F I E D A Method for Evaluating Fire After Earthquake Scenarios for Single...
Guidance materials based on use of conceptual model scenarios were developed to assist evaluation and implementation of attenuation-based remedies for groundwater and vadose zones contaminated with inorganic and radionuclide contaminants. The Scenarios approach is intended to complement the comprehensive information provided in the US EPA's Technical Protocol for Monitored Natural Attenuation (MNA) of Inorganic Contaminants by providing additional information on site conceptual models and extending the evaluation to consideration of Enhanced Attenuation approaches. The conceptual models incorporate the notion of reactive facies, defined as units with hydrogeochemical properties that are different from surrounding units and that react with contaminants in distinct ways. The conceptual models also incorporate consideration of biogeochemical gradients, defined as boundaries between different geochemical conditions that have been induced by waste disposal or other natural phenomena. Gradients can change over time when geochemical conditions from one area migrate into another, potentially affecting contaminant mobility. A recognition of gradients allows the attenuation-affecting conditions of a site to be projected into the future. The Scenarios approach provides a stepwise process to identify an appropriate category of conceptual model and refine it for a specific site. Scenario materials provide links to pertinent sections in the EPA technical protocol and present information about contaminant mobility and important controlling mechanism for attenuation-based remedies based on the categories of conceptual models.
Vangelas, K.; Rysz, M.; Truex, M.; Brady, P.; Newell, C.; Denham, M.
Scenarios Evaluation Tool for Chlorinated Solvent MNA
Over the past three decades, much progress has been made in the remediation of chlorinated solvents from the subsurface. Yet these pervasive contaminants continue to present a significant challenge to the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), other federal agencies, and other public and private organizations. The physical and chemical properties of chlorinated solvents make it difficult to rapidly reach the low concentrations typically set as regulatory limits. These technical challenges often result in high costs and long remediation time frames. In 2003, the DOE through the Office of Environmental Management funded a science-based technical project that uses the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's technical protocol (EPA, 1998) and directives (EPA, 1999) on Monitored Natural Attenuation (MNA) as the foundation on which to introduce supporting concepts and new scientific developments that will support remediation of chlorinated solvents based on natural attenuation processes. This project supports the direction in which many site owners want to move to complete the remediation of their site(s), that being to complete the active treatment portion of the remedial effort and transition into MNA. The overarching objective of the effort was to examine environmental remedies that are based on natural processes--remedies such as Monitored Natural Attenuation (MNA) or Enhanced Attenuation (EA). The research program did identify several specific opportunities for advances based on: (1) mass balance as the central framework for attenuation based remedies, (2) scientific advancements and achievements during the past ten years, (3) regulatory and policy development and real-world experience using MNA, and (4) exploration of various ideas for integrating attenuation remedies into a systematic set of ''combined remedies'' for contaminated sites. These opportunities are summarized herein and are addressed in more detail in referenced project documents and journal articles, as well as in the technical and regulatory documents being developed within the ITRC.
Vangelas, Karen; Michael J. Truex; Charles J. Newell; Brian Looney
Italian hybrid and fission reactors scenario analysis
Italy is a country where a long tradition of studies both in the fission and fusion field is consolidated; nevertheless a strong public opinion concerned with the destination of the Spent Nuclear Fuel hinders the development of nuclear power. The possibility to a severe reduction of the NSF mass generated from a fleet of nuclear reactors employing an hypothetical fusionfission hybrid reactor has been investigated in the Italian framework. The possibility to produce nuclear fuel for the fission nuclear reactors with the hybrid reactor was analyzed too.
Ciotti, M.; Manzano, J.; Sepielli, M. [ENEA CR Frascati, Via Enrico Fermi, 45, 00044, Frascati, Roma (Italy); ENEA CR casaccia, Via Anguillarese, 301, 00123, Santa Maria di Galeria, Roma (Italy)
MAUT approach for selecting a proper decommissioning scenario
When dismantling scenarios are selected, not only the quantitatively calculated results but also the qualitatively estimated results should be considered with a logical and systematic process. In this case, the MAUT (Multi-Attribute Utility Theory) is widely used for the quantification of subjective judgments in various fields of a decision making. This study focuses on the introduction and application of the MAUT method for the selection of decommissioning scenarios. To evaluate decommissioning scenarios, nine evaluation attributes are considered. These attributes are: the primary cost, the peripheral cost, the waste treatment cost, the worker's exposure, the worker's safety, the work difficulty, the originality of the dismantling technologies, their contributions to other industries, public relations for, and an understanding of the public. The weighting values of the attributes were determined by using the AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) method and their utility functions are produced from several questionnaires for the decision makers. As an implementation, this method was applied to evaluate two scenarios, the plasma arc cutting scenario and the nibbler cutting scenario for decommissioning the thermal column in KRR- 1 (Korea Research Reactor-1). As a result, this method has many merits even although it is difficult to produce the utility function of each attribute. However, once they are setup it is easy to measure the alternatives' values and it can be applied regardless of the number of alternatives. (authors)
Kim, S.K.; Park, K.W.; Lee, H.S.; Jung, C.H. [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Yuseong-Gu, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)
Over the past three decades, much progress has been made in the remediation of chlorinated solvents from the subsurface. Yet these pervasive contaminants continue to present a significant challenge to the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), other federal agencies, and other public and private organizations. The physical and chemical properties of chlorinated solvents make it difficult to rapidly reach the low concentrations typically set as regulatory limits. These technical challenges often result in high costs and long remediation time frames. In 2003, the DOE through the Office of Environmental Management funded a science-based technical project that uses the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's technical protocol (EPA, 1998) and directives (EPA, 1999) on Monitored Natural Attenuation (MNA) as the foundation on which to introduce supporting concepts and new scientific developments that will support remediation of chlorinated solvents based on natural attenuation processes. This project supports the direction in which many site owners want to move to complete the remediation of their site(s), that being to complete the active treatment portion of the remedial effort and transition into MNA. The overarching objective of the effort was to examine environmental remedies that are based on natural processes--remedies such as Monitored Natural Attenuation (MNA) or Enhanced Attenuation (EA). The research program did identify several specific opportunities for advances based on: (1) mass balance as the central framework for attenuation based remedies, (2) scientific advancements and achievements during the past ten years, (3) regulatory and policy development and real-world experience using MNA, and (4) exploration of various ideas for integrating attenuation remedies into a systematic set of ''combined remedies'' for contaminated sites. These opportunities are summarized herein and are addressed in more detail in referenced project documents and journal articles, as well as in the technical and regulatory documents being developed within the ITRC. Three topic areas were identified for development during this project. These areas are: mass balance, Enhanced Attenuation (EA), and new characterization and monitoring tools and approaches to support MNA and EA. Each of these topics is documented in stand alone reports, WSRC-STI-2006-00082, WSRC-STI-2006-00083, and WSRC-STI-2006-00084, respectively. In brief, the mass balance efforts are examining methods and tools to allow a site to be evaluated in terms of a system where the inputs and processes within the system are compared to the outputs from the system, as well as understanding what attenuation processes may be occurring and how likely they are to occur within a system. Enhanced Attenuation is a new concept that is a transition step between primary treatments and MNA, when the natural attenuation processes are not sufficient to allow direct transition from the primary treatment to MNA. EA technologies are designed to either boost the level of the natural attenuation processes or decrease the loading of contaminants to the system for a period of time sufficient to allow the remedial goals to be met over the long-term. For characterization and monitoring, a phased approach based on documenting the site specific mass balance was developed. Tools and techniques to support the approach included direct measures of the biological processes and various tools to support cost-effective long-term monitoring of systems where the natural attenuation processes are the main treatment remedies. The effort revealed opportunities for integrating attenuation mechanisms into a systematic set of ''combined remedies'' for contaminated sites.
Vangelas, K; Brian02 Looney, B; Michael J. Truex; Charles J. Newell
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icon Gateway:Low Emission Development Strategies (Redirected from Developing LED Scenarios) Jump to: navigation, search Leds-Graphics 03.PNG Low Emission Development...
China's sustainable energy future: Scenarios of energy and carbonemissions (Summary)
China has ambitious goals for economic development, and mustfind ways to power the achievement of those goals that are bothenvironmentally and socially sustainable. Integration into the globaleconomy presents opportunities for technological improvement and accessto energy resources. China also has options for innovative policies andmeasures that could significantly alter the way energy is acquired andused. These opportunities andoptions, along with long-term social,demographic, and economic trends, will shape China s future energysystem, and consequently its contribution to emissions of greenhousegases, particularly carbon dioxide (CO2). In this study, entitled China sSustainable Energy Future: Scenarios of Energy and Carbon Emissions, theEnergy Research Institute (ERI), an independent analytic organizationunder China's Na tional Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), soughtto explore in detail how China could achieve the goals of the TenthFive-Year Plan and its longer term aims through a sustainable developmentstrategy. China's ability to forge a sustainable energy path has globalconsequences. China's annual emissions of greenhouse gases comprisenearly half of those from developing countries, and 12 percent of globalemissions. Most of China's greenhouse gas emissions are in the form ofCO2, 87 percent of which came from energy use in 2000. In that year,China's carbon emissions from energy use and cement production were 760million metric tons (Mt-C), second only to the 1,500 Mt-C emitted by theUS (CDIAC, 2003). As China's energy consumption continues to increase,greenhouse gas emissions are expected to inevitably increase into thefuture. However, the rate at which energy consumption and emissions willincrease can vary significantly depending on whether sustainabledevelopment is recognized as an important policy goal. If the ChineseGovernment chooses to adopt measures to enhance energy efficiency andimprove the overall structure of energy supply, it is possible thatfuture economic growth may be supported by a relatively lower increase inenergy consumption. Over the past 20 years, energy intensity in China hasbeen reduced partly through technological and structural changes; currentannual emissions may be as much as 600 Mt-C lower than they would havebeen without intensity improvements. China must take into account itsunique circumstances in considering how to achieve a sustainabledevelopment path. This study considers the feasibility of such anachievement, while remaining open to exploring avenues of sustainabledevelopment that may be very different from existing models. Threescenarios were prepared to assist the Chinese Government to explore theissues, options and uncertainties that it confronts in shaping asustainable development path compatible with China's uniquecircumstances. The Promoting Sustainability scenario offers a systematicand complete interpretation of the social and economic goals proposed inthe Tenth Five-Year Plan. The possibility that environmentalsustainability would receive low priority is covered in the OrdinaryEffort scenario. Aggressive pursuit of sustainable development measuresalong with rapid economic expansion is featured in the Green Growthscenario. The scenarios differ in the degree to which a common set ofenergy supply and efficiency policies are implemented. In cons ultationwith technology and policy experts domestically and abroad, ERI developedstrategic scenarios and quantified them using an energy accounting model.The scenarios consider, in unprecedented detail, changes in energy demandstructure and technology, as well as energy supply, from 1998 to 2020.The scenarios in this study are an important step in estimating realistictargets for energy efficiency and energy supply development that are inline with a sustainable development strategy. The scenarios also helpanalyze and explore ways in which China might slow growth in greenhousegas emissions. The key results have important policy implications:Depending on how demand for energy services is met, Chi
Zhou, Dadi; Levine, Mark; Dai, Yande; Yu, Cong; Guo, Yuan; Sinton, Jonathan E.; Lewis, Joanna I.; Zhu, Yuezhong
Safety evaluation of MHTGR licensing basis accident scenarios
The safety potential of the Modular High-Temperature Gas Reactor (MHTGR) was evaluated, based on the Preliminary Safety Information Document (PSID), as submitted by the US Department of Energy to the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission. The relevant reactor safety codes were extended for this purpose and applied to this new reactor concept, searching primarily for potential accident scenarios that might lead to fuel failures due to excessive core temperatures and/or to vessel damage, due to excessive vessel temperatures. The design basis accident scenario leading to the highest vessel temperatures is the depressurized core heatup scenario without any forced cooling and with decay heat rejection to the passive Reactor Cavity Cooling System (RCCS). This scenario was evaluated, including numerous parametric variations of input parameters, like material properties and decay heat. It was found that significant safety margins exist, but that high confidence levels in the core effective thermal conductivity, the reactor vessel and RCCS thermal emissivities and the decay heat function are required to maintain this safety margin. Severe accident extensions of this depressurized core heatup scenario included the cases of complete RCCS failure, cases of massive air ingress, core heatup without scram and cases of degraded RCCS performance due to absorbing gases in the reactor cavity. Except for no-scram scenarios extending beyond 100 hr, the fuel never reached the limiting temperature of 1600/degree/C, below which measurable fuel failures are not expected. In some of the scenarios, excessive vessel and concrete temperatures could lead to investment losses but are not expected to lead to any source term beyond that from the circulating inventory. 19 refs., 56 figs., 11 tabs.
Kroeger, P.G.
Wind Supply Curves and Location Scenarios in the West: Summary of the Clean and Diverse Energy Wind Task Force Report; Preprint
This paper presents supply curves and scenarios that were developed by the Wind Task Force. Much of this information has been adapted from the original Wind Task Force report.
Milligan, M.; Parsons, B.; Shimshak, R.; Larson, D.; Carr, T.
Integrated Analysis of Market Transformation Scenarios with HyTrans
This report presents alternative visions of the transition of light-duty vehicle transportation in the United States from petroleum to hydrogen power. It is a supporting document to the U.S. Department of Energy's Summary Report, "Analysis of the Transition to a Hydrogen Economy and the Potential Hydrogen Infrastructure Requirements" (U.S. DOE, 2007). Three alternative early transition scenarios were analyzed using a market simulation model called HyTrans. The HyTrans model simultaneously represents the behavior of fuel suppliers, vehicle manufacturers and consumers, explicitly recognizing the importance of fuel availability and the diversity of vehicle choices to consumers, and dependence of fuel supply on the existence of market demand. Competitive market outcomes are simulated by means of non-linear optimization of social surplus through the year 2050. The three scenarios specify different rates and geographical distributions of market penetration for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles from 2012 through 2025. Scenario 1 leads to 2 million vehicles on U.S. roads by 2025, while Scenarios 2 and 3 result in 5 million and 10 million FCVs in use by 2025, respectively. The HyTrans model "costs out" the transition scenarios and alternative policies for achieving them. It then tests whether the scenarios, together with the achievement of the DOE's technology goals for fuel cell vehicles and hydrogen infrastructure technologies could lead to a sustainable transition to hydrogen powered transportation. Given the achievement of DOE's ambitious technology goals, all three scenarios appear to lead to a sustainable transition to hydrogen. In the absence of early transition deployment effort, no transition is likely to begin before 2045. The cumulative costs of the transition scenarios to the government range from $8 billion to $45 billion, depending on the scenario, the policies adopted and the degree of cost-sharing with industry. In the absence of carbon constraining policies, the transition to hydrogen achieves about the same reduction in CO2 emissions as a transition to advanced gasoline-electric hybrid vehicles. With significant carbon policy, drastic reductions in well-to-wheel CO2 emissions are possible. Energy transition modeling is a newly evolving field and much remains to be done to improve the utility of models like HyTrans.
Greene, David L [ORNL; Leiby, Paul Newsome [ORNL; Bowman, David Charles [ORNL
Economically consistent long-term scenarios for air pollutant emissions
Pollutant emissions such as aerosols and tropospheric ozone precursors substantially influence climate. While future century-scale scenarios for these emissions have become more realistic through the inclusion of emission controls, they still potentially lack consistency between surface pollutant concentrations and regional levels of affluence. We demonstrate a methodology combining use of an integrated assessment model and a three-dimensional atmospheric chemical transport model, whereby a reference scenario is constructed by requiring consistent surface pollutant levels as a function of regional income over the 21st century. By adjusting air pollutant emission control parameters, we improve agreement between modeled PM2.5 and economic income among world regions through time; agreement for ozone is also improved but is more difficult to achieve because of the strong influence of upwind world regions. The scenario examined here was used as the basis for one of the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. This analysis methodology could also be used to examine the consistency of other pollutant emission scenarios.
Smith, Steven J.; West, Jason; Kyle, G. Page
Enduse Global Emissions Mitigation Scenarios (EGEMS): A New Generation of Energy Efficiency Policy Planning Models
of Carbon Dioxide Emissions on GNP Growth: Interpretation ofMcNeil et al Enduse Global Emissions Mitigation Scenarios (Keywords Greenhouse gas emissions, emissions scenarios,
McNeil, Michael A.
2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and...
Suggested Improvement - - Transition scenario should include case studies Transition scenario should include case studies of local economies of local economies Include...
Scenario HELP Index Summary Scenario Internet Links Student Pages In third grade in St. Charles, Illinois the curriculum is integrated around the theme of community. The children...
A Comparison of Proliferation Resistance Measures of Misuse Scenarios Using a Markov Approach
Misuse of declared nuclear facilities is one of the important proliferation threats. The robustness of a facility against these threats is characterized by a number of proliferation resistance (PR) measures. This paper evaluates and compares PR measures for several misuse scenarios using a Markov model approach to implement the pathway analysis methodology being developed by the PR&PP (Proliferation Resistance and Physical Protection) Expert Group. Different misue strategies can be adopted by a proliferator and each strategy is expected to have different impacts on the proliferator's success. Selected as the probabilistic measure to represent proliferation resistance, the probabilities of the proliferator's success of misusing a hypothetical ESFR (Example Sodium Fast Reactor) facility system are calculated using the Markov model based on the pathways constructed for individual misuse scenarios. Insights from a comparison of strategies that are likely to be adopted by the proliferator are discussed in this paper.
Yue,M.; Cheng, L.-Y.; Bari, R.
Transition Strategies: Government Options and Market Penetration Scenarios
Transition Strategies Transition Strategies Possible Range of Government Support Options * Hydrogen Fuel Initiative - 2015 commercialization decision * 2015 commercialization decision - 1000s of cars by 2015, and 10,000s of cars by 2018 * 2015 commercialization decision, 100,000s of cars by 2018 * 2010 commercialization decision, 10,000s of cars by 2015 and 100,000s of cars by 2018 * 2010 commercialization decision, 100,000s of cars by 2016 and millions by 2021. These scenarios are provided for transition analyses as recommended by the National Research Council to evaluate the transition phase and do not represent any specific policy recommendation. 3 Market Penetration Scenarios The following scenarios represent the estimated penetration of hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles (HFCV) given different government incentives:
Scenario Modelling: A Holistic Environmental and Energy Management
Scenario Modelling: A Holistic Environmental and Energy Management Scenario Modelling: A Holistic Environmental and Energy Management Technique for Building Managers Speaker(s): James O'Donnell Date: September 30, 2010 - 12:00pm Location: 90-3122 Seminar Host/Point of Contact: Vladimir Bazjanac At the operational level of organisations, building managers most commonly evaluate environmental and energy performance. They originate from a variety of technical and non-technical backgrounds with corresponding experiences, knowledge and skill sets. The profile of building managers as established in this work accounts for this diverse variation. Building performance data and information that is typically available for the established profile of building managers is insufficient for optimum operation. This presentaion presents the scenario modelling technique
A proposal for a new scenario framework to support research and assessment in different climate research communities
In this paper, we propose a scenario framework that could provide a scenario thread through the different climate research communities (climate change vulnerability, impact, and adaptation (VIA) and mitigation) in order to provide assessment of mitigation and adaptation strategies and other VIA challenges. The scenario framework is defined across two main axes. One is defined by the radiative forcing levels (climate signal) of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The second axis is defined by socio-economic development and comprises elements that affect the capacity for adaptation and mitigation but also exposure to climate impacts. The proposed set of scenarios derived from this framework are limited in number, allow for comparison across various mitigation and adaptation levels, address a range of vulnerability characteristics, provide information across climate forcing and vulnerability states and spans a full century time scale. Scenario assessment based on the proposed framework would strengthen cooperation between integrated-assessment modelers, climate modelers and the VIA research community, and most importantly, facilitate the development of more consistent and comparable research within and across communities.
Van Vuuren, Detlef; Riahi, Keywan; Moss, Richard H.; Edmonds, James A.; Thomson, Allison M.; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa; Kram, Tom; Berkhout, Frans; Swart, Robert; Janetos, Anthony C.; Rose, Steven K.; Arnell, Nigel
Time parallelization of advanced operation scenario simulations of ITER plasma
This work demonstrates that simulations of advanced burning plasma operation scenarios can be successfully parallelized in time using the parareal algorithm. CORSICA - an advanced operation scenario code for tokamak plasmas is used as a test case. This is a unique application since the parareal algorithm has so far been applied to relatively much simpler systems except for the case of turbulence. In the present application, a computational gain of an order of magnitude has been achieved which is extremely promising. A successful implementation of the Parareal algorithm to codes like CORSICA ushers in the possibility of time efficient simulations of ITER plasmas.
Samaddar, D. [ITER Organization, Saint Paul Lez Durance, France; Casper, T. A. [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL); Kim, S. H. [ITER Organization, Saint Paul Lez Durance, France; Berry, Lee A [ORNL; Elwasif, Wael R [ORNL; Batchelor, Donald B [ORNL; Houlberg, Wayne A [ORNL
Long-term tradeoffs between nuclear- and fossil-fuel burning
A global energy/economics/environmental (E{sup 3}) model has been adapted with a nuclear energy/materials model to understand better {open_quotes}top-level{close_quotes}, long-term trade offs between civilian nuclear power, nuclear-weapons proliferation, fossil-fuel burning, and global economic welfare. Using a {open_quotes}business-as-usual{close_quotes} (BAU) point-of-departure case, economic, resource, proliferation-risk implications of plutonium recycle in LAIRs, greenhouse-gas-mitigating carbon taxes, and a range of nuclear energy costs (capital and fuel) considerations have been examined. After describing the essential elements of the analysis approach being developed to support the Los Alamos Nuclear Vision Project, preliminary examples of parametric variations about the BAU base-case scenario are presented. The results described herein represent a sampling from more extensive results collected in a separate report. The primary motivation here is: (a) to compare the BAU basecase with results from other studies; (b) to model on a regionally resolved global basis long-term (to year {approximately}2100) evolution of plutonium accumulation in a variety of forms under a limited range of fuel-cycle scenarios; and (c) to illustrate a preliminary connectivity between risks associated with nuclear proliferation and fossil-fuel burning (e.g., greenhouse-gas accumulations).
Krakowski, R.A.
Using the baseline environmental management report (BEMR) to examine alternate program scenarios
The US Department of Energy`s (DOE) Office of Environmental Management (EM) released the first Baseline Environmental Management Report (BEMR) in March, 1995. The Congressionally-mandated report provides life-cycle cost estimates, tentative schedules, and projected activities necessary to complete DOE`s Environmental Management Program. This ``base case`` estimate is based on current program assumptions and the most likely set of activities. However, since the future course of the Environmental Management Program depends upon a number of fundamental technical and policy choices, alternate program scenarios were developed. These alternate cases show the potential cost impacts of changing assumptions in four key areas: future land use, program funding and scheduling, technology development, and waste management configurations. Several cost and program evaluation tools were developed to support the analysis of these alternate cases. The objective of this paper is to describe the analytical tool kit developed to support the development of the 1995 Baseline Report and to discuss the application of these tools to evaluate alternate program scenarios.
Kristofferson, K.
Creating interactive driver experiences with the scenario markup language
Serious games became an important device for increasing the awareness of issues that are important to society. One such issue is the environmental impact of driving. To support the training and wide promotion of eco-friendly driving, an appropriate platform ... Keywords: 3D virtual worlds, eco-friendly driving, markup languages, scenario programming
Kugamoorthy Gajananan; Eurico Doirado; Arturo Nakasone; Pedro Cuba; Helmut Prendinger; Marc Miska
Traffic Measurement and Statistical Analysis in a Disaster Area Scenario
-of-Hospital] disaster response."([5]) Public safety units need reliable communication independent of any inTraffic Measurement and Statistical Analysis in a Disaster Area Scenario Nils Aschenbruck, Matthias, 53117 Bonn, Germany {aschenbruck, matthew, martini, firstname.lastname@example.com Abstract-- Disaster areas
Managing Risk in Disaster Scenarios with Autonomous Robots
of damage. · The initial response to the disaster is limited to only those local rescue assets that have had some limited use in disaster response, most notably the responses led by the Center for Robot1 Managing Risk in Disaster Scenarios with Autonomous Robots Daniel P. Stormont and Vicki H. Allan
Allan, Vicki H.
Exploring Humanoid Robots Locomotion Capabilities in Virtual Disaster Response Scenarios
Exploring Humanoid Robots Locomotion Capabilities in Virtual Disaster Response Scenarios Karim. INTRODUCTION Disaster response is attracting attention from the robotics research community, and even more by the DARPA's call on disaster operations. Hence, we focus on locomotion tasks that apparently require human
Paris-Sud XI, Université de
A comparison of standard evasion scenarios at near regional distances
We performed numerical simulations of three nuclear testing evasion scenarios. These calculations were done in two parts. The first part was done near source (within 10 km) with a non-linear weapons effects code. Particle velocity histories from the non-linear code were linked to an elastic linear finite-difference code for the second part. Seismic waveforms from the evasion scenario calculations were compared with the waveforms for a non-evasive explosion calculation at near regional distances. The results of this comparison suggest that it may be important to include realistic stratigraphy in such simulations: the overall wave amplitude in the present simulations is reduced by only a factor of 3-5 in contradiction to factors of 20-100 in {open_quotes}classical{close_quotes} decoupling analyses for ideal (i.e., unlayered) media. Two of the evasion scenarios simulated retain explosive waveform characteristics at near regional distances, while the third scenario indicates that certain source geometries might lead to more non-explosive (i.e., earthquake-like) seismic signals.
Bos, R.; App, F.; Jones, E.; Dey, T.; Kamm, J.
Scenario for a Magnitude 6.7 Earthquake
Institute and the Washington Military Department Emergency Management Division June 2005 #12;#12;Scenario for a Magnitude 6.7 Earthquake on the Seattle Fault Earthquake Engineering Research Institute and the Washington Street, Suite 320 Oakland, CA 94612-1934 USA Washington Military Department, Emergency Management
Wilcock, William
STIMO: STIll and MOving video storyboard for the web scenario
In the current Web scenario a video browsing tool that produces on-the-fly storyboards is more and more a need. Video summary techniques can be helpful but, due to their long processing time, they are usually unsuitable for on-the-fly usage. Therefore, ... Keywords: Clustering, Storyboards, Video browsing, Video summary
Marco Furini; Filippo Geraci; Manuela Montangero; Marco Pellegrini
California's Electricity System of the Future: Scenario Analysis in Support
Commission nor has the California Energy Commission passed upon the accuracy or adequacy of the information of a competitive electricity market. CERTS is currently conducting research for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOECalifornia's Electricity System of the Future: Scenario Analysis in Support of Public
iSee: interactive scenario explorer for online tournament games
Fantasy games, in which players compete to correctly predict real-world outcomes in sports, entertainment, and politics, have grown in popularity and now represent a significant portion of online gaming. Pick'em pools, also known as office pools, are ... Keywords: fantasy games, office pools, scenario exploration, tournament
Greg Smith; Desney Tan; Bongshin Lee
Regionalized Global Energy Scenarios Meeting Stringent Climate Targets
to generate the energy supply mix that would meet given energy demands at lowest cost, assuming strongRegionalized Global Energy Scenarios Meeting Stringent Climate Targets cost effective fuel in the energy system it is less costly to reduce CO2-emissions #12;Global energy system model #12;Global energy
Deliverable D6.1 Requirements and scenarios for
2011 Contributing WP : WP6 Author(s) : Pierre Chatel (THA), Antoine Leger (THA), James Lockerbie (CITY.2 Atomic steps and attached requirements defined for scenario 1. Atomic steps and choreographies defined (THA), Antoine Leger (THA) 1.3 Added information from CITY, based on information gathered during
Grid Computing consists of a collection of heterogeneous computers and resources spread across multiple administrative domains with the intent of providing users uniform access to these resources. There are many ways to access the resources of a Grid, ... Keywords: Global Grid Forum, Globus, Grid Computing, Legion, computer security, usage scenarios
Marty Humphrey; Mary R. Thompson
Scenarios for a Clean Energy Future Background 2.1
efficiency can decrease the "energy intensity" of the U.S. economy, thereby reducing carbon emissions. Energy zero energy growth over this 13-year period. Looking ahead, an actual decrease in U.S. energy that have made the U.S. economy much less energy intensive today than it was in #12;Scenarios for a Clean
The Next Generation of Scenarios for Climate Change Research and Assessment
Advances in the science and observation of climate change are providing a clearer understanding of the inherent variability of Earth�s climate system and its likely response to human and natural influences. The implications of climate change for the environment and society will depend not only on the response of the Earth system to changes in radiative forcings, but also on how humankind responds through changes in technology, economies, lifestyle, and policy. Extensive uncertainties exist in future forcings of and responses to climate change, necessitating the use of scenarios of the future to explore the potential consequences of different response options. To date, these scenarios have not adequately examined crucial possibilities, such as climate mitigation and adaptation, and have relied on processes that limited the exchange of information among physical, biological, and social scientists. Now, an interdisciplinary research team has developed a new process for creating plausible scenarios to investigate some of the most challenging and important questions about climate change confronting the international community.
Moss, Richard H.; Edmonds, James A.; Hibbard, K.; Manning, Martin; Rose, Steven K.; Van Vuuren, Detlet; Carter, Tim; Emori, S.; Kainuma, M.; Kram, Tom; Meehl, G.; Mitchell, John; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa; Riahi, Keywan; Smith, Steven J.; Stouffer, Ron; Thomson, Allison M.; Weyant, John; Wilbanks, Thomas
Representing Instructional Material for Scenario-Based Guided-Discovery Courseware
The focus of this paper is to discuss paradigms for learning that are based on sound principles of human learning and cognition, and to discuss technical challenges that must be overcome in achieving this research goal through instructional system design (ISD) approaches that are cost-effective as well as conformant with today's interactive multimedia instruction standards. Fundamental concepts are to: engage learners to solve real-world problems (progress from simple to complex); relate material to previous experience; demonstrate what is to be learned using interactive, problem-centered activities rather than passive exposure to material; require learners to use their new knowledge to solve problems that demonstrate their knowledge in a relevant applied setting; and guide the learner with feedback and coaching early, then gradually withdraw this support as learning progresses. Many of these principles have been put into practice by employing interactive learning objects as re-usable components of larger, more integrated exercises. A challenge is to make even more extensive use of interactive, scenario-based activities within a guided-discovery framework. Because the design and construction of interactive, scenario-based learning objects and more complex integrated exercises is labor-intensive, this paper explores the use of interactive learning objects and associated representation schema for instructional content to facilitate development of tools for creating scenario-based, guided-discovery courseware.
Greitzer, Frank L.; Merrill, M. DAVID.; Rice, Douglas M.; Curtis, Darren S.
Scenario Analysis of Peak Demand Savings for Commercial Buildings with
Scenario Analysis of Peak Demand Savings for Commercial Buildings with Scenario Analysis of Peak Demand Savings for Commercial Buildings with Thermal Mass in California Title Scenario Analysis of Peak Demand Savings for Commercial Buildings with Thermal Mass in California Publication Type Conference Paper LBNL Report Number LBNL-3636e Year of Publication 2010 Authors Yin, Rongxin, Sila Kiliccote, Mary Ann Piette, and Kristen Parrish Conference Name 2010 ACEEE Summer Study on Energy Efficiency in Buildings Conference Location Pacific Grove, CA Keywords demand response and distributed energy resources center, demand response research center, demand shifting (pre-cooling), DRQAT Abstract This paper reports on the potential impact of demand response (DR) strategies in commercial buildings in California based on the Demand Response Quick Assessment Tool (DRQAT), which uses EnergyPlus simulation prototypes for office and retail buildings. The study describes the potential impact of building size, thermal mass, climate, and DR strategies on demand savings in commercial buildings. Sensitivity analyses are performed to evaluate how these factors influence the demand shift and shed during the peak period. The whole-building peak demand of a commercial building with high thermal mass in a hot climate zone can be reduced by 30% using an optimized demand response strategy. Results are summarized for various simulation scenarios designed to help owners and managers understand the potential savings for demand response deployment. Simulated demand savings under various scenarios were compared to field-measured data in numerous climate zones, allowing calibration of the prototype models. The simulation results are compared to the peak demand data from the Commercial End-Use Survey for commercial buildings in California. On the economic side, a set of electricity rates are used to evaluate the impact of the DR strategies on economic savings for different thermal mass and climate conditions. Our comparison of recent simulation to field test results provides an understanding of the DR potential in commercial buildings.
Reliable Muddle: Transportation Scenarios for the 80% Greenhouse Gas Reduction Goal for 2050 (Presentation)
Presentation describing transportation scenarios for meeting the 2050 DOE goal of reducing greenhouse gases by 80%.
Melaina, M.; Webster, K.
Scenario construction and reduction applied to stochastic power generation expansion planning
A challenging aspect of applying stochastic programming in a dynamic setting is to construct a set of discrete scenarios that well represents multivariate stochastic processes for uncertain parameters. Often this is done by generating a scenario tree ... Keywords: Power generation expansion planning, Scenario generation, Scenario reduction, Stochastic programming
Yonghan Feng; Sarah M. Ryan
A scenario-driven role engineering process for functional RBAC roles
In this paper we present a novel scenario-driven role engineering process for RBAC roles. The scenario concept is of central significance for the presented approach. Due to the strong human factor in role engineering scenarios are a good means to drive ... Keywords: role engineering, role-based access control, scenarios
Gustaf Neumann; Mark Strembeck
Inflation scenario via the Standard Model Higgs boson and LHC
We consider a quantum corrected inflation scenario driven by a generic GUT or Standard Model type particle model whose scalar field playing the role of an inflaton has a strong non-minimal coupling to gravity. We show that currently widely accepted bounds on the Higgs mass falsify the suggestion of the paper arXiv:0710.3755 (where the role of radiative corrections was underestimated) that the Standard Model Higgs boson can serve as the inflaton. However, if the Higgs mass could be raised to $\\sim 230$ GeV, then the Standard Model could generate an inflationary scenario with the spectral index of the primordial perturbation spectrum $n_s\\simeq 0.935$ (barely matching present observational data) and the very low tensor-to-scalar perturbation ratio $r\\simeq 0.0006$.
A. O. Barvinsky; A. Yu. Kamenshchik; A. A. Starobinsky
The Unified First law in "Cosmic Triad" Vector Field Scenario
In this letter, we try to apply the unified first law to the "cosmic triad" vector field scenario both in the minimal coupling case and in the non-minimalcoupling case. After transferring the non-minimally coupling action in Jordan frame to Einstein frame, the correct dynamical equation (Friedmann equation) is gotten in a thermal equilibrium process by using the already existing entropy while the entropy in the non-minimal coupled "cosmic triad" scenario has not been derived. And after transferring the variables back to Jordan frame, the corresponding Friedmann equation is demonstrated to be correct. For complete arguments, we also calculate the related Misner-Sharp energy in Jordan and Einstein frames.
Yi Zhang; Yungui Gong; Zong-Hong Zhu
Planning substation capacity under the single-contingency scenario
Florida Power and Light (FPL) adopts the single contingency emergency policy for its planning of substation capacity. This paper provides an approach to determine the maximum load which a substation can take on under such a policy. The approach consists of two LP models which determine: (1) the maximum substation load capacity, and (2) the reallocation of load when a substation`s demand cannot be met. Both models are formulated under the single-contingency scenario, an issue which had received little attention in the literature. Not only does the explicit treatment of the scenario provide an exact measure of a substation`s load limit, it also raises several important issues which previous works omit. These two models have been applied to the substation network of the Fort Myers District of the State of Florida.
Leung, L.C. [Chinese Univ. of Hong Kong, Shatin (Hong Kong). Decision Sciences and Managerial Economics; Khator, S.K. [Univ. of South Florida, Tampa, FL (United States). Industrial and Management Systems Engineering; Schnepp, J.C. [Crest Ultrasonics, Trenton, NJ (United States)
High DSM Scenario Request for the 2011 TEPPC Transmission Expansion Plan (and Treatment of DSM in Reference Case/Other Scenarios) Recommendation of the State/Provincial Steering Committee DSM Working Group
At the November 6, 2009 meeting of the State-Provincial Steering Committee (SPSC), the SPSC agreed that it would submit a high DSM scenario to TEPPC and requested that the DSM Working Group prepare the request, for review and approval by the SPSC. This document outlines the approach recommended by the DSM Work Group for developing a high DSM scenario, to be modeled in the 2011 TEPPC 10-Year Transmission Expansion Plan. 1 In addition, the DSM Working Group has developed recommendations for the treatment of DSM in the reference case and two scenarios (Carbon Reduction and Breakthrough Technology) proposed by the Scenario Working Group. Table 1 sets for the recommended approach for these items, for energy efficiency (EE), demand response (DR), combined heat and power (CHP) and distribution system efficiency upgrades. These recommendations have been informed by the technical assistance of Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) and the non-state officials participating in the DSM Working Group, as well as the state official/commissioner members of the Group.
Stakeholder and Public Perceptions of 2030 Bioenergy Scenarios for Yorkshire
. This is supported by his comment that co-firing has "huge environmental potential". The other scenarios perform near 3.7 Head of Environment, Drax power station Drax is currently (2005/6) co-firing some 200,000 tonnes the confidence to move to energy crop supply. Co-firing is seen as potentially kick-starting take-up of smaller
Energy Flowchart Scenarios of Future U.S. Energy Use Incorporating Hydrogen Fueled Vehicles
This project has adapted LLNL energy flowcharts of historical U.S. energy use drawn from the DOE Energy Information Administration (EIA) data to include scenarios involving hydrogen use. A flexible automated process for preparing and drawing these flowcharts has also been developed. These charts show the flows of energy between primary sectors of the economy so that a user can quickly understand the major implications of a proposed scenario. The software can rapidly generate a spectrum of U.S. energy use scenarios in the 2005-2050 timeframe, both with and without a transition to hydrogen-fueled transportation. These scenarios indicate that fueling 100% of the light duty fleet in 2050 (318 million 80 mpg-equivalent compressed hydrogen fuel cell vehicles) will require approximately 100 million tonnes (10.7 quads) of H2/year, reducing petroleum use by at least 7.3 million barrels of oil/day (15.5 quads/yr). Linear extrapolation of EIA's 2025 reference projection to 2050 indicates approximate U.S. primary energy use of 180 quads/yr (in 2050) relative to current use of 97 quads/yr (comprising 39 quads/yr of petroleum). Full deployment of 50% efficient electricity generation technologies for coal and nuclear power and improvements in gasoline lightduty vehicle fleet fuel economy to 50 mpg would reduce projected U.S. primary energy consumption to 143 quads/yr in 2050, comprising 58 quads/yr (27 million bbl/day) of petroleum. Full deployment of H2 automobiles by 2050 could further reduce U.S. petroleum dependence to 43 quads/yr. These projections indicate that substantial steps beyond a transition to H2 light-duty vehicles will be necessary to reduce future U.S. petroleum dependence (and related greenhouse gases) below present levels. A flowchart projecting future U.S. energy flows depicting a complete transition by 2050 to compressed hydrogen light-duty vehicles is attached on the following page (corresponding to scenario 7 in the Appendix). It indicates that producing 100 billion kilograms of hydrogen fuel annually (10.7 quads/yr) from a balanced blend of primary energy sources will likely require 16.2 quads of primary energy input, with an additional 0.96 Quads of electricity for hydrogen storage. These energy flows are comparable to or smaller than projected growth in individual primary energy sources over the 2005-2050 timeframe except perhaps the case of windpower.
Berry, G; Daily III, W
Modified GBIG Scenario as a Successful Alternative for Dark Energy
We construct a DGP-inspired braneworld model where induced gravity on the brane is modified in the spirit of $f(R)$ gravity and stringy effects are taken into account by incorporation of the Gauss-Bonnet term in the bulk action. We explore cosmological dynamics of this model and we show that this scenario is a successful alternative for dark energy proposal. Interestingly, it realizes the phantom-like behavior without introduction of any phantom field on the brane and the effective equation of state parameter crosses the cosmological constant line naturally in the same way as observational data suggest.
Nozari, Kourosh
Modified GBIG Scenario as an Alternative for Dark Energy
Kourosh Nozari; Narges Rashidi
Scenario Analysis of Peak Demand Savings for Commercial Buildings with Thermal Mass in California
Scenario Analysis of Peak Demand Savings for CommercialScenario Analysis of Peak Demand Savings for CommercialThe whole-building peak demand of a commercial building with
Yin, Rongxin
Japan's Long-term Energy Demand and Supply Scenario to 2050 ...
Long-term Energy Demand and Supply Scenario to 2050 - Estimation for the Potential of Massive CO2 Mitigation Title Japan's Long-term Energy Demand and Supply Scenario to 2050 -...
Long-Range U.S. Energy Price and Quantity Projections inLaboratory. Natural Gas Price Scenarios Among activelys 2004 IRP includes three gas price scenarios. As shown in
and trade - - offs) need to be assessed as part of offs) need to be assessed as part of scenario analysis. What makes hydrogen scenario analysis. What makes hydrogen FCVs FCVs...
DOE Hydrogen and Fuel Cells Program: 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis...
Scenario Analysis Printable Version 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure A transition from the current U.S. energy system to one based on...
Exploring the Structure of Regional Climate Scenarios by Combining Synoptic and Dynamic Guidance and GCM Output
A set of regional climate scenarios is constructed for two study regions in North America using a combination of GCM output and synoptic�dynamical reasoning. The approach begins by describing the structure and components of a climate scenario and ...
James S. Risbey; Peter J. Lamb; Ron L. Miller; Michael C. Morgan; Gerard H. Roe
China-NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 | Open Energy Information
China-NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 Jump to: navigation, search Name China-NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 AgencyCompany Organization National Institute for...
Exploring the Future Role of Asia Utilizing A Scenario Matrix Architecture and Shared Socio-Ecosystem Pathways
We explore the implications of alternative pathways for human population and economic development for the role of Asia in both reference, no-climate-policy, scenarios and scenarios in which climate forcing is limited. We consider three different reference scenarios, which we refer to as Shared Socio-ecosystem Pathways (SSPs) and four different levels of limitation on climate forcing, which we refer to as Shared Policy Assumptions (SPAs). SSPs are differentiated by population and economic growth assumptions, while SPAs are differentiated on the level of radiative forcing in the year 2100. Regardless of the scenarios we examined Asia plays a central role in shaping the world�s future with nearly half of the world�s people and more than half of the world�s economic activity and energy consumption. The future of Asian and world are dramatically different across the various combinations of SSPs and SPAs. High population worlds place significant stress on Asian resources and ecosystems. In high population SSPs the poorest members of the population face high energy and food prices and the more stringent the level of emissions mitigation, the more stress poor populations experience, though the more stringent the emissions mitigation, the larger the area of unmanaged ecosystems that are preserved.
Eom, Jiyong; Calvin, Katherine V.; Clarke, Leon E.; Edmonds, James A.; Kim, Son H.; Kopp, Roberrt; Kyle, G. Page; Luckow, Patrick; Moss, Richard H.; Patel, Pralit L.; Wise, Marshall A.
Final report: Task 4a.2 20% wind scenario assessment of electric grid operational features
Wind integration modeling in electricity generation capacity expansion models is important in that these models are often used to inform political or managerial decisions. Poor representation of wind technology leads to under-estimation of wind's contribution to future energy scenarios which may hamper growth of the industry. The NREL's Wind Energy Deployment System (WinDS) model provides the most detailed representation of geographically disperse renewable resources and the optimization of transmission expansion to access these resources. Because WinDS was selected as the primary modeling tool for the 20% Wind Energy by 2030 study, it is the ideal tool for supplemental studies of the transmission expansion results. However, as the wind industry grows and knowledge related to the wind resource and integration of wind energy into the electric system develops, the WinDS model must be continually improved through additional data and innovative algorithms to capture the primary effects of variable wind generation. The detailed representation of wind technology in the WinDS model can be used to provide improvements to the simplified representation of wind technology in other capacity expansion models. This task did not employ the WinDS model, but builds from it and its results. Task 4a.2 provides an assessment of the electric grid operational features of the 20% Wind scenario and was conducted using power flow models accepted by the utility industry. Tasks 2 provides information regarding the physical flow of electricity on the electric grid which is a critical aspect of infrastructure expansion scenarios. Expanding transmission infrastructure to access remote wind resource in a physically realizable way is essential to achieving 20% wind energy by 2030.
Toole, Gasper L. [Los Alamos National Laboratory
California's electricity system of the future scenario analysis in support of public-interest transmission system R&D planning
The California Energy Commission directed the Consortium for Electric Reliability Technology Solutions to analyze possible future scenarios for the California electricity system and assess transmission research and development (R&D) needs, with special emphasis on prioritizing public-interest R&D needs, using criteria developed by the Energy Commission. The scenarios analyzed in this report are not predictions, nor do they express policy preferences of the project participants or the Energy Commission. The public-interest R&D needs that are identified as a result of the analysis are one input that will be considered by the Energy Commission's Public Interest Energy Research staff in preparing a transmission R&D plan.
Eto, Joseph; Stovall, John P.
Analysis of sheltering and evacuation strategies for an urban nuclear detonation scenario.
Development of an effective strategy for shelter and evacuation is among the most important planning tasks in preparation for response to a low yield, nuclear detonation in an urban area. This study examines shelter-evacuate policies and effectiveness focusing on a 10 kt scenario in Los Angeles. The goal is to provide technical insights that can support development of urban response plans. Results indicate that extended shelter-in-place can offer the most robust protection when high quality shelter exists. Where less effective shelter is available and the fallout radiation intensity level is high, informed evacuation at the appropriate time can substantially reduce the overall dose to personnel. However, uncertainties in the characteristics of the fallout region and in the exit route can make evacuation a risky strategy. Analyses indicate that only a relatively small fraction of the total urban population may experience significant dose reduction benefits from even a well-informed evacuation plan.
Yoshimura, Ann S.; Brandt, Larry D.
Energy Technology Perspectives, 2010: Scenarios & Strategies to 2050 | Open
Page Page Edit with form History Facebook icon Twitter icon » Energy Technology Perspectives, 2010: Scenarios & Strategies to 2050 Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Energy Technology Perspectives, 2010: Scenarios & Strategies to 2050 Focus Area: Carbon Capture and Storage Topics: Environmental Website: www.iea.org/Textbase/nppdf/free/2010/etp2010_part1.pdf Equivalent URI: cleanenergysolutions.org/content/energy-technology-perspectives-2010-s Policies: "Regulations,Financial Incentives" is not in the list of possible values (Deployment Programs, Financial Incentives, Regulations) for this property. Regulations: "Emissions Standards,Emissions Mitigation Scheme,Mandates/Targets" is not in the list of possible values (Agriculture Efficiency Requirements, Appliance & Equipment Standards and Required Labeling, Audit Requirements, Building Certification, Building Codes, Cost Recovery/Allocation, Emissions Mitigation Scheme, Emissions Standards, Enabling Legislation, Energy Standards, Feebates, Feed-in Tariffs, Fuel Efficiency Standards, Incandescent Phase-Out, Mandates/Targets, Net Metering & Interconnection, Resource Integration Planning, Safety Standards, Upgrade Requirements, Utility/Electricity Service Costs) for this property.
User interface prototyping based on UML scenarios and high-level Petri nets
In this paper, we suggest a requirement engineering process that generates a user interface prototype from scenarios and yields a formal specification of the system in form of a high-level Petri net. Scenarios are acquired in the form of sequence diagrams ... Keywords: high-level petri net, scenario specification, unified modeling language, user interface prototyping
Mohammed Elkoutbi; Rudolf K. Keller
Special Report on Emissions Scenarios : a special report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios Contents: Foreword Preface Summary for policymakers Technical Summary Chapter 1: Background and Overview Chapter 2: An Overview of the Scenario Literature Chapter 3: Scenario Driving Forces Chapter 4: An Overview of Scenarios Chapter 5: Emission Scenarios Chapter 6: Summary Discussions and Recommendations
Nakicenovic, Nebojsa; Alcamo, Joseph; Davis, Gerald; de Vries, Bert; Fenhann, Joergen; Gaffin, Stuart; Gregory, Kenneth; Grubler, Arnulf; Jung, Tae Yong; Kram, Tom; La Rovere, Emilio Lebre; Michaelis, Laurie; Mori, Shunsuke; Morita, Tsuneyuki; Pepper, William; Pitcher, Hugh M.; Price, Lynn; Riahi, Keywan; Roehrl, Alexander; Rogner, Hans-Holger; Sankovski, Alexei; Schlesinger, Michael; Shukla, Priyadarshi; Smith, Steven J.; Swart, Robert; van Rooijen, Sascha; Victor, Nadejda; Dadi, Zhou
Evaluating Potential for Large Releases from CO2 StorageReservoirs: Analogs, Scenarios, and Modeling Needs
While the purpose of geologic storage of CO{sub 2} in deep saline formations is to trap greenhouse gases underground, the potential exists for CO{sub 2} to escape from the target reservoir, migrate upward along permeable pathways, and discharge at the land surface. Such discharge is not necessarily a serious concern, as CO{sub 2} is a naturally abundant and relatively benign gas in low concentrations. However, there is a potential risk to health, safety and environment (HSE) in the event that large localized fluxes of CO{sub 2} were to occur at the land surface, especially where CO{sub 2} could accumulate. In this paper, we develop possible scenarios for large CO{sub 2} fluxes based on the analysis of natural analogues, where large releases of gas have been observed. We are particularly interested in scenarios which could generate sudden, possibly self-enhancing, or even eruptive release events. The probability for such events may be low, but the circumstances under which they might occur and potential consequences need to be evaluated in order to design appropriate site selection and risk management strategies. Numerical modeling of hypothetical test cases is needed to determine critical conditions for such events, to evaluate whether such conditions may be possible at designated storage sites, and, if applicable, to evaluate the potential HSE impacts of such events and design appropriate mitigation strategies.
Birkholzer, Jens; Pruess, Karsten; Lewicki, Jennifer; Tsang,Chin-Fu; Karimjee, Anhar
Mode Conversion Heating Scenarios for the National Compact Stellarator Experiment
Radio-frequency heating scenarios for the National Compact Stellarator eXperiment (NCSX) are considered. The focus here is on mode conversion from the fast to the slow ion Bernstein wave as either an electron or ''bulk'' ion heating technique, using a high-field side launch to directly access the ion-ion hybrid layer. Modeling for the planned parameters of NCSX [R(subscript ave) {approximately} 1.4 m, a(subscript ave) {approximately} 0.4 m, B(subscript T)(0) {approximately} 1.2-2 T, n(subscript e)(0) {approximately} 2-5 x 10(superscript19) m(superscript -3), T(subscript e)(0) {approximately} T(subscript i)(0) {approximately} 1-2 keV] for mode conversion in D-H and D-3He plasmas is presented. Possible types of high-field side antennas are also briefly discussed.
Majeski, R.; Wilson, J.R.; and Zarnstorff, M.
The LHCb Muon detector commissioning and first running scenarios
The LHCb muon detector, part of the first LHCb trigger level (L0), has been built to provide a fast and efficient identification of the muons produced in pp collisions at the LHC. The expected performances are: 95% L0 trigger efficiency within a 25 ns time window and muon identification in L0 with a Pr resolution of 20%. The detector has been built using Multi-Wire Proportional Chambers and Gas Electron Multiplier technology. The chambers are arranged in five stations, interspersed with iron filter placed along the beam pipe. The results obtained in the commissioning of all the installed chambers and the measured performances are presented. The strategies foreseen for the detector calibration, the results of the space and time alignment efforts and few first running scenarios are discussed.
Furcas, S
Scenarios for the ATF2 Ultra-Low Betas Proposal
The current ATF2 Ultra-Low beta proposal was designed to achieve 20nm vertical IP beam size without considering the multipolar components of the FD magnets. In this paper we describe different scenarios that avoid the detrimental effect of these multipolar errors to the beam size at the interaction point (IP). The simplest approach consists in modifying the optics, but other solutions are studied as the introduction of super-conducting wigglers to reduce the emittance or the replacement of the normal-conducting focusing quadrupole in the Final Doublet (NC-QF1FF) with a super-conducting quadrupole one (SC-QF1FF). These are fully addressed in the paper.
Marin, Eduardo; /CERN; Tomas, Rogelio; /CERN; Bambade, Philip; /Orsay, LAL; Kuroda, Shigeru; /KEK, Tsukuba; Okugi, Toshiyuki; /KEK, Tsukuba; Tauchi, Toshiaki; /KEK, Tsukuba; Terunuma, Nobuhiro; /KEK, Tsukuba; Urakawa, Junji; /KEK, Tsukuba; Parker, Brett; /Brookhaven; Seryi, Andrei; /SLAC; White, Glen; /SLAC; Woodley, Mark; /SLAC
Improvements to Hydrogen Delivery Scenario Analysis Model (HDSAM) and Results
to Hydrogen to Hydrogen Delivery Scenario Analysis Model (HDSAM) and Results May 8, 2007 Amgad Elgowainy Argonne National Laboratory Comparison of Delivery Pathways- V1.0 vs. V2.0 2 1 3 i delivery by a Loading, the plant Version 1.0 character zed components for 3 pathways with single mode. conditioning and storage are at or adjacent to Liquid Hydrogen (LH) Truck H2 Production 100 or 1500 kg/d Compressed H2 (CH) Truck H2 Production 3 or 7 kpsi 100 or 1500 kg/d H2 Production Gaseous H2 Pipeline 100 or 1500 kg/d HDSAM V1.0 Estimates Delivery Cost for 3 Pathways 4 H2 H2 1 2 3 H2 Distribution and Ci I. Liquid H2 Distribution: HDSAM V2.0 Simulates Nine Pathways Production Production LH Terminal LH Terminal Production LH Terminal Transmission Transmission Distribution
Using HyTrans to Study H2 Transition Scenarios
Using HyTrans Using HyTrans to Study H2 Transition Scenarios David Greene & Paul Leiby Oak Ridge National Laboratory Elzbieta Tworek Univ. of Tennessee & StrataG David Bowman Consultant DOE Hydrogen Transition Analysis Workshop January 26, 2006 Washington, DC OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORY U. S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY We will try to cover 4 topics in ½ hour because what we want is your input. 1. What is HyTrans? 2. What can it do? 1. Previous analyses 2. Initial early transition runs 3. What improvements are needed for realistic early transition analysis? 4. How will we interface with NREL's detailed GIS analyses? OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORY U. S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY 1. What is HyTrans? OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORY U. S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY HyTrans is a national (regional) model of the market
FCT Systems Analysis: DOE 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis Meeting: August 9-10,
August 9-10, 2006 to someone by E-mail August 9-10, 2006 to someone by E-mail Share FCT Systems Analysis: DOE 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis Meeting: August 9-10, 2006 on Facebook Tweet about FCT Systems Analysis: DOE 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis Meeting: August 9-10, 2006 on Twitter Bookmark FCT Systems Analysis: DOE 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis Meeting: August 9-10, 2006 on Google Bookmark FCT Systems Analysis: DOE 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis Meeting: August 9-10, 2006 on Delicious Rank FCT Systems Analysis: DOE 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis Meeting: August 9-10, 2006 on Digg Find More places to share FCT Systems Analysis: DOE 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis Meeting: August 9-10, 2006 on AddThis.com... Home Analysis Methodologies DOE H2A Analysis Scenario Analysis Quick Links Hydrogen Production Hydrogen Delivery
Analysis of sheltering and evacuation strategies for a Chicago nuclear detonation scenario.
Development of an effective strategy for shelter and evacuation is among the most important planning tasks in preparation for response to a low yield, nuclear detonation in an urban area. Extensive studies have been performed and guidance published that highlight the key principles for saving lives following such an event. However, region-specific data are important in the planning process as well. This study examines some of the unique regional factors that impact planning for a 10 kt detonation in Chicago. The work utilizes a single scenario to examine regional impacts as well as the shelter-evacuate decision alternatives at selected exemplary points. For many Chicago neighborhoods, the excellent assessed shelter quality available make shelter-in-place or selective transit to a nearby shelter a compelling post-detonation strategy.
Analysis of sheltering and evacuation strategies for a national capital region nuclear detonation scenario.
Development of an effective strategy for shelter and evacuation is among the most important planning tasks in preparation for response to a low yield, nuclear detonation in an urban area. Extensive studies have been performed and guidance published that highlight the key principles for saving lives following such an event. However, region-specific data are important in the planning process as well. This study examines some of the unique regional factors that impact planning for a 10 kT detonation in the National Capital Region. The work utilizes a single scenario to examine regional impacts as well as the shelter-evacuate decision alternatives at one exemplary point. For most Washington, DC neighborhoods, the excellent assessed shelter quality available make shelter-in-place or selective transit to a nearby shelter a compelling post-detonation strategy.
Failure Scenarios and Mitigations and for the BaBar Superconducting Solenoid
The cryogenic department at the Stanford Linear Accelerator Center is responsible for the operation, troubleshooting, and upgrade of the 1.5 Tesla superconducting solenoid detector for the BABAR B-factory experiment. Events that disable the detector are rare but significantly impact the availability of the detector for physics research. As a result, a number of systems and procedures have been developed over time to minimize the downtime of the detector, for example improved control systems, improved and automatic backup systems, and spares for all major components. Together they can prevent or mitigate many of the failures experienced by the utilities, mechanical systems, controls and instrumentation. In this paper we describe various failure scenarios, their effect on the detector, and the modifications made to mitigate the effects of the failure. As a result of these modifications the reliability of the detector has increased significantly with only 3 shutdowns of the detector due to cryogenics systems over the last 2 years.
Thompson, EunJoo; Candia, A.; Craddock, W.W.; Racine, M.; Weisend, J.G., II; /SLAC
Double Ended Guillotine Break in a Prismatic Block VHTR Lower Plenum Air Ingress Scenario
The double ended guillotine break leading to density-driven air ingress has been identified as a low probability yet high consequence event for Very High Temperature Reactor (VHTR). The lower plenum of the VHTR contains the core support structure and is composed of graphite. During an air ingress event, oxidation of the graphite structure under high temperature conditions in an oxygen containing environment could degrade the integrity of the core support structure. Following this large break, air from the reactor containment will begin to enter the lower plenum via two mechanisms: diffusion or density driven stratified flow. The large difference in time scales between the mechanisms leads to the need to perform high fidelity experimental studies to investigate the dominant the air ingress mechanism. A scaled test facility has been designed and built that allows the acquisition of velocity measurements during stratification after a pipe break. A non-intrusive optical measurement technique provides full-field velocity measurements profiles of the two species Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV). The data allow a more developed understanding of the fundamental flow features, the development of improved models, and possible mitigation strategies in such a scenario.Two brine-water experiments were conducted with different break locations. Flow fronts were analyzed and findings concluded that the flow has a constant speed through the pipe after the initial lock exchange. The time in which the flow enters the lower plenum is an important factor because it provides the window of opportunity for mitigation strategies in an actual reactor scenario. For both cases the flow of the heavier density liquid (simulating air ingress from the reactor containment) from the pipe enters the reactor vessel in under 6 seconds. The diffusion velocity and heavy flow front of the stratified flow layer were compared for the SF6/He gas case. It is seen that the diffusion plays less of a role as the transport mechanism in comparison to the density-driven stratified flow since the velocity of the diffusion is two orders of magnitude smaller than the velocity of the stratified flow mechanism. This is the reason for the need for density-driven stratified flow investigations following a LOCA. These investigations provided high-quality data for CFD validation in order for these models to depict the basic phenomena occurring in an air ingress scenario.
Hartley, Jessica
Scenarios Testing Academic Freedom William Menke, May 6, 2012
Assembly attempted to require its State University to develop a policy restricting porn on campus. However
Menke, William
Intruder scenarios for site-specific low-level radioactive waste classification
The US Department of Energy (DOE) has revised its low-level radioactive waste (LLW) management requirements and guidelines for waste generated at its facilities supporting defense missions. Specifically, draft DOE Order 5820.2A, Chapter 3 describes the purpose, policy, and requirements necessary for the management of defense LLW. The draft DOE policy calls for LLW operations to be managed to protect the health and safety of the public, preserve the environment, and ensure that no remedial action will be necessary after termination of operations. The basic approach used by DOE is to establish overall performance objectives, in terms of groundwater protection and public radiation dose limits, and to require site-specific performance assessments to determine compliance. As a result of these performance assessments, each site will develop waste acceptance criteria that define the allowable quantities and concentrations of specific radioisotopes. Additional limitations on waste disposal design, waste form, and waste treatment will also be developed on a site-specific basis. As a key step in the site-specific performance assessments, an evaluation must be conducted of potential radiation doses to intruders who may inadvertently move onto a closed DOE LLW disposal site after loss of institutional controls. This report (1) describes the types of intruder scenarios that should be considered when performing this step of the site-specific performance assessment, (2) provides the results of generic calculations performed using unit concentrations of various radionuclides as a comparison of the magnitude of importance of the various intruder scenarios, and (3) shows the relationship between the generic doses and waste classification limits for defense wastes.
Kennedy, W.E. Jr.; Peloquin, R.A.
Development of a tool for forecasting a warehouse facility footprint and enabling rapid scenario analysis
Companies in every industry, including both manufacturers and service providers, must make decisions about their operational footprint -the amount of building space required for business needs such as storing inventory and ...
Sutterer, Lucas B. (Lucas Benjamin)
Energy Efficiency and Fossil Energy Research 1978 to 2000.of the Office of Fossil Energy of DOE, collaborated withof DOE FE � Office of Fossil Energy at DOE GPRA � Government
in 2025 because coal and natural gas prices increase more$ / bbl) Natural Gas Wellhead Price ($ / tcf) Coal MinemouthCoal prices through 2025 are not manipulated, and reach whatever level that NEMS-LBNL determines, given the target natural gas and oil prices.
Progress in Steady-State Scenario Development in the DIII-D Tokamak (A26981)
Proc. Of 6th IAEA Technical Meeting On Steady-State Operation Of Magnetic Fusion Devices6th IAEA Technical Committee Meeting on Steady State Operation of Magnetic Fusion Devices Vienna, AT, 2010999617785
18 Figure 7 Total Non-Renewable Energy24 Figure 17 Total Non-Renewable EnergyEnergy Efficiency and Renewable Energy U.S. Department of
Development of Burning Plasma and Advanced Scenarios in the DIII-D Tokamak (A24845)
Proc. 20th IAEA Fusion Energy Conf., Vilamoura, Portugal, 2004 (International Atomic Energy Agency, Vienna) To Be Webbed20th IAEA Fusion Energy Conference Vilamoura, PT, 2004999609860
for both oil and natural gas prices) within the price rangerestricted to cause natural gas prices to reach a minimum ofTrajectory Comparison Natural gas prices quoted herein are
for both oil and natural gas prices) within the price rangerestricted to cause natural gas prices to reach a minimum ofComparison Natural gas prices quoted herein are wellhead
Built, Coal and Combined Cycle.. 22 Figure 13.Advanced Coal� or �Combined Cycle� plant with sequestration.Capacity Built, Coal and Combined Cycle Carbon Allowance
of U.S. Petroleum Demand Natural Gas Wellhead Prices ForcingDemand.. 15 Figure 4. Natural Gasenergy demand is price inelastic, for oil and natural gas
Scenario Development and Analysis of Hydrogen as a Large-Scale Energy Storage Medium (Presentation)
The conclusions from this report are: (1) hydrogen has several important advantages over competing technologies, including - very high storage energy density (170 kWh/m{sup 3} vs. 2.4 for CAES and 0.7 for pumped hydro) which allows for potential economic viability of above-ground storage and relatively low environmental impact in comparison with other technologies; and (2) the major disadvantage of hydrogen energy storage is cost but research and deployment of electrolyzers and fuel cells may reduce cost significantly.
Steward, D. M.
19 Figure 9 High Fuel Price 2019 Electricity Generating9 High Fuel Price 2019 Electricity Generating Fuel MixFuel Mix 20 Figure 10 High Fuel Price 2025 Electricity Generating
below in Figures 1 and 4. Coal prices through 2025 are notNatural Gas Wellhead Price ($ / tcf) Coal Minemouth Price (in 2025 because coal and natural gas prices increase more
16 Figure 5. U.S. Natural Gas Supplyaround 2010. The natural gas supply is restricted to causethe means by which the natural gas supply is restricted.
growth factor on the natural gas price margins to electricfor both oil and natural gas prices) within the price rangerestricted to cause natural gas prices to reach a minimum of
15 Figure 4. Natural Gas Wellhead Price16 Figure 5. U.S. Natural Gas Supply14 4.2 Natural Gas Wellhead
and Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) imports had to be carefully5. U.S. Natural Gas Supply Forecast In 2005, imports make upgas end-use and wellhead prices, pipeline, lease, and plant fuel, balancing item, and imports
under the direction of the Office of Fossil Energy of DOE,of DOE FE � Office of Fossil Energy at DOE GPRA � GovernmentOffice of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EE) and Fossil Energy (
Preliminary analyses of scenarios for potential human interference for repositories in three salt formations
Preliminary analyses of scenarios for human interference with the performance of a radioactive waste repository in a deep salt formation are presented. The following scenarios are analyzed: (1) the U-Tube Connection Scenario involving multiple connections between the repository and the overlying aquifer system; (2) the Single Borehole Intrusion Scenario involving penetration of the repository by an exploratory borehole that simultaneously connects the repository with overlying and underlying aquifers; and (3) the Pressure Release Scenario involving inflow of water to saturate any void space in the repository prior to creep closure with subsequent release under near lithostatic pressures following creep closure. The methodology to evaluate repository performance in these scenarios is described and this methodology is applied to reference systems in three candidate formations: bedded salt in the Palo Duro Basin, Texas; bedded salt in the Paradox Basin, Utah; and the Richton Salt Dome, Mississippi, of the Gulf Coast Salt Dome Basin.
Global Fits of the Minimal Universal Extra Dimensions Scenario
In theories with Universal Extra-Dimensions (UED), the {gamma}{sub 1} particle, first excited state of the hypercharge gauge boson, provides an excellent Dark Matter (DM) candidate. Here we use a modified version of the SuperBayeS code to perform a Bayesian analysis of the minimal UED scenario, in order to assess its detectability at accelerators and with DM experiments. We derive in particular the most probable range of mass and scattering cross sections off nucleons, keeping into account cosmological and electroweak precision constraints. The consequences for the detectability of the {gamma}{sub 1} with direct and indirect experiments are dramatic. The spin-independent cross section probability distribution peaks at {approx} 10{sup -11} pb, i.e. below the sensitivity of ton-scale experiments. The spin-dependent cross-section drives the predicted neutrino flux from the center of the Sun below the reach of present and upcoming experiments. The only strategy that remains open appears to be direct detection with ton-scale experiments sensitive to spin-dependent cross-sections. On the other hand, the LHC with 1 fb{sup -1} of data should be able to probe the current best-fit UED parameters.
Bertone, Gianfranco; /Zurich U. /Paris, Inst. Astrophys.; Kong, Kyoungchul; /SLAC /Kansas U.; de Austri, Roberto Ruiz; /Valencia U., IFIC; Trotta, Roberto; /Imperial Coll., London
Technology and Greenhouse Gas Emissions: An IntegratedScenario Analysis
This report describes an analysis of possible technology-based scenarios for the U.S. energy system that would result in both carbon savings and net economic benefits. We use a modified version of the Energy Information Administration's National Energy Modeling System (LBNL-NEMS) to assess the potential energy, carbon, and bill savings from a portfolio of carbon saving options. This analysis is based on technology resource potentials estimated in previous bottom-up studies, but it uses the integrated LBNL-NEMS framework to assess interactions and synergies among these options. The analysis in this paper builds on previous estimates of possible "technology paths" to investigate four major components of an aggressive greenhouse gas reduction strategy: (1) the large scale implementation of demand-side efficiency, comparable in scale to that presented in two recent policy studies on this topic; (2) a variety of "alternative" electricity supply-side options, including biomass cofiring, extension of the renewable production tax credit for wind, increased industrial cogeneration, and hydropower refurbishment. (3) the economic retirement of older and less efficient existing fossil-find power plants; and (4) a permit charge of $23 per metric ton of carbon (1996 $/t),l assuming that carbon trading is implemented in the US, and that the carbon permit charge equilibrates at this level. This level of carbon permit charge, as discussed later in the report, is in the likely range for the Clinton Administration's position on this topic.
Koomey, J.G.; Latiner, S.; Markel, R.J.; Marnay, C.; Richey, R.C.
Combined Estimation of Hydrogeologic Conceptual Model, Parameter, and Scenario Uncertainty with Application to Uranium Transport at the Hanford Site 300 Area
This report to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) describes the development and application of a methodology to systematically and quantitatively assess predictive uncertainty in groundwater flow and transport modeling that considers the combined impact of hydrogeologic uncertainties associated with the conceptual-mathematical basis of a model, model parameters, and the scenario to which the model is applied. The methodology is based on a n extension of a Maximum Likelihood implementation of Bayesian Model Averaging. Model uncertainty is represented by postulating a discrete set of alternative conceptual models for a site with associated prior model probabilities that reflect a belief about the relative plausibility of each model based on its apparent consistency with available knowledge and data. Posterior model probabilities are computed and parameter uncertainty is estimated by calibrating each model to observed system behavior; prior parameter estimates are optionally included. Scenario uncertainty is represented as a discrete set of alternative future conditions affecting boundary conditions, source/sink terms, or other aspects of the models, with associated prior scenario probabilities. A joint assessment of uncertainty results from combining model predictions computed under each scenario using as weight the posterior model and prior scenario probabilities. The uncertainty methodology was applied to modeling of groundwater flow and uranium transport at the Hanford Site 300 Area. Eight alternative models representing uncertainty in the hydrogeologic and geochemical properties as well as the temporal variability were considered. Two scenarios represent alternative future behavior of the Columbia River adjacent to the site were considered. The scenario alternatives were implemented in the models through the boundary conditions. Results demonstrate the feasibility of applying a comprehensive uncertainty assessment to large-scale, detailed groundwater flow and transport modeling and illustrate the benefits of the methodology I providing better estimates of predictive uncertiay8, quantitative results for use in assessing risk, and an improved understanding of the system behavior and the limitations of the models.
Meyer, Philip D.; Ye, Ming; Rockhold, Mark L.; Neuman, Shlomo P.; Cantrell, Kirk J.
Digital clip gift shops as scenarios for collaborative architectures for monetising broadcast archive content: an evaluation from a technical and business viewpoint
Within the scope of this paper we focus on the investigation of potential scenarios for providing clips via common broadcasting platform for sharing these across social media. We develop the idea of a digital clip gift shop and present a technical solution ...
Sabine Bachmayer, Artur Lugmayr, Gabriele Kotsis
Transportation in Developing Countries
Africa that produces synthetic oil from coal, starts to use natural gas as feedstock in the production, natural gas, and petroleum into liquid fuels and chemicals. Sasol is now a privately owned companysolutions+ + + + Transportation in Developing Countries Greenhouse Gas Scenarios for South Africa
Delucchi, Mark
the Base case scenario. The Xcel/PSCo 2004 IRP applied four$49.21 tax. In Colorado, Xcel/PSCo�s 2004 IRP estimated the
China's sustainable energy future: Scenarios of energy and carbon emissions (Summary)
energy use. China�s Sustainable Energy Future Summary next31 -ii- China�s Sustainable Energy Future Executive Summarystudy, entitled China�s Sustainable Energy Future: Scenarios
Energy Laboratory. Natural Gas Price Scenarios Amongvolatile-priced. 4 Future natural gas prices are also highlysection we benchmark the natural gas prices contained in the
Numerical test of the Gribov-Zwanziger scenario in Landau gauge
We review the status of lattice simulations of gluon and ghost propagators in Landau gauge, testing predictions of the Gribov-Zwanziger confinement scenario.
Attilio Cucchieri; Tereza Mendes
Hydrogen Delivery Model for H2A Analysis: A Spreadsheet Model For Hydrogen Delivery Scenarios
FINAL REPORT HYDROGEN DELIVERY MODEL FOR H2AA SPREADSHEET MODEL FOR HYDROGEN DELIVERY SCENARIOS Joan M.Department of Energy Hydrogen, Fuel Cells and Infrastructure
Ogden, Joan
Hydrogen Delivery Model for H2A Analysis: A Spreadsheet Model for Hydrogen Delivery Scenarios
Ogden, Joan M
Electrification and Mitigation: Long-Term GHG Deep-Cut Scenario...
and de-carbonization of power generation is most likely to evolve in the future. The scenario analysis demonstrates the unique and important contribution of the Japanese...
Agenda for the 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel...
1:00 pm Program stakeholders convene in 2 parallel breakout groups to discuss scenario analysis results and provide feedback on the following focus questions: Does the...
Scenario analysis of hybrid class 3-7 heavy vehicles.
The effects of hybridization on heavy-duty vehicles are not well understood. Heavy vehicles represent a broader range of applications than light-duty vehicles, resulting in a wide variety of chassis and engine combinations, as well as diverse driving conditions. Thus, the strategies, incremental costs, and energy/emission benefits associated with hybridizing heavy vehicles could differ significantly from those for passenger cars. Using a modal energy and emissions model, they quantify the potential energy savings of hybridizing commercial Class 3-7 heavy vehicles, analyze hybrid configuration scenarios, and estimate the associated investment cost and payback time. From the analysis, they conclude that (1) hybridization can significantly reduce energy consumption of Class 3-7 heavy vehicles under urban driving conditions; (2) the grid-independent, conventional vehicle (CV)-like hybrid is more cost-effective than the grid-dependent, electric vehicle (EV)-like hybrid, and the parallel configuration is more cost-effective than the series configuration; (3) for CV-like hybridization, the on-board engine can be significantly downsized, with a gasoline or diesel engine used for SUVs perhaps being a good candidate for an on-board engine; (4) over the long term, the incremental cost of a CV-like, parallel-configured Class 3-4 hybrid heavy vehicle is about %5,800 in the year 2005 and $3,000 in 2020, while for a Class 6-7 truck, it is about $7,100 in 2005 and $3,300 in 2020; and (5) investment payback time, which depends on the specific type and application of the vehicle, averages about 6 years under urban driving conditions in 2005 and 2--3 years in 2020.
An, F.; Stodolsky, F.; Vyas, A.; Cuenca, R.; Eberhardt, J. J.
Assess in-depth contributions of selected scenarios to goals...
economic and market potential of technologies and initiatives Clean Energy Market Analysis Toolkit 3b.3. Prioritize development options 3c. Analytical Decision Making -...
Combine scenarios by sector to conduct integrated, economy-wide...
Assistance Network Geothermal Incentives and Policies International Clean Energy Analysis Low Emission Development Strategies Oil & Gas Smart Grid Solar U.S. OpenLabs...
Pages that link to "Energy System and Scenario Analysis Toolkit...
It is important to understand and quantify the potential risk resulting from accidental environmental exposure of condensed phase hydrogen storage materials under differing environmental exposure scenarios. This paper describes a modeling and experimental study with the aim of predicting consequences of the accidental release of 2LiBH{sub 4}+MgH{sub 2} from hydrogen storage systems. The methodology and results developed in this work are directly applicable to any solid hydride material and/or accident scenario using appropriate boundary conditions and empirical data. The ability to predict hydride behavior for hypothesized accident scenarios facilitates an assessment of the of risk associated with the utilization of a particular hydride. To this end, an idealized finite volume model was developed to represent the behavior of dispersed hydride from a breached system. Semiempirical thermodynamic calculations and substantiating calorimetric experiments were performed in order to quantify the energy released, energy release rates and to quantify the reaction products resulting from water and air exposure of a lithium borohydride and magnesium hydride combination. The hydrides, LiBH{sub 4} and MgH{sub 2}, were studied individually in the as-received form and in the 2:1 'destabilized' mixture. Liquid water hydrolysis reactions were performed in a Calvet calorimeter equipped with a mixing cell using neutral water. Water vapor and oxygen gas phase reactivity measurements were performed at varying relative humidities and temperatures by modifying the calorimeter and utilizing a gas circulating flow cell apparatus. The results of these calorimetric measurements were compared with standardized United Nations (UN) based test results for air and water reactivity and used to develop quantitative kinetic expressions for hydrolysis and air oxidation in these systems. Thermodynamic parameters obtained from these tests were then inputted into a computational fluid dynamics model to predict both the hydrogen generation rates and concentrations along with localized temperature distributions. The results of these numerical simulations can be used to predict ignition events and the resultant conclusions will be discussed.
James, C; David Tamburello, D; Joshua Gray, J; Kyle Brinkman, K; Bruce Hardy, B; Donald Anton, D
Corrosion and Potential Subsidence Scenarios for Buried B-25 Waste Containers
This report describes various scenarios to be modeled for static loading of B-25 containers in Engineered Trench number 1 (ET) at the Department of Energy's (DOE's) Savannah River Site in Aiken, South Carolina. Scenario information includes the static load to be used, estimated B-25 steel-volume loss with time due to corrosion, and waste characteristics.
Jones, W.E.
Scenario analysis using Bayesian networks: A case study in energy sector
This paper provides a general overview of creating scenarios for energy policies using Bayesian Network (BN) models. BN is a useful tool to analyze the complex structures, which allows observation of the current structure and basic consequences of any ... Keywords: Bayesian networks, Causal maps, Energy investments, Scenario analysis
Didem Cinar; Gulgun Kayakutlu
ARCADE - abstraction and realization of complex event scenarios using dynamic rule creation
This system capitalizes on the fact that the complex event scenarios in an industry are repetitive in nature. It abstracts these scenarios into reusable templates with configurable parameters. This is an advantage that the system brings over the existing ... Keywords: business event, complex event processing
Ashish A. Kulkarni
SCENARIOS FOR AN AUTONOMIC MICRO SMART GRID Sylvain Frey1,2
SCENARIOS FOR AN AUTONOMIC MICRO SMART GRID Sylvain Frey1,2 , François Huguet1 , Cédric Mivielle1 Systems, Micro Smart Grids. Abstract: Autonomic computing is a bio-inspired vision elaborated to manage presents a series of scenarios relative to micro smart grids district-size "smart" electricity networks
Diaconescu, Ada
Analysis on various pricing scenarios in a deregulated electricity market
The electricity pricing structure in Texas has changed after deregulation (January 2002). The Energy Systems Laboratory has served as a technical consultant on electricity purchases to several universities in the Texas A&M University System since 2001. In the fiscal year of 2006 Stephen F. Austin State University joined with the TAMU campuses and agencies, and there are now 183 accounts in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) North, Northeast, South, West, and Houston areas of Texas. From the 183 accounts, 9 Interval Data Recorder (IDR) accounts consume 92% of the total load. The objective of this research is to find the most economic price structure to purchase electricity for the Texas A&M System and Stephen F. Austin University by analyzing various pricing scenarios: the spot market, forward contracts, take or pay contracts and on/off season (tiered) contracts. The analysis was based on the 9 IDR accounts. The prices for the spot market were given by ERCOT and the other prices by Sempra. The energy charges were calculated every 15 minute using the real historical consumption of each facility and the aggregated load of all facilities. The result for the analysis was given for each institution separately, as well as for the aggregated load of all facilities. The results of the analysis showed that the tiered price was the most economical structure to purchase electricity for each individual university and for the total aggregated load of all 9 IDR accounts. From March 1, 2005 to February 28, 2006, purchasing electricity on the tiered price would have cost $13,810,560. The forward contract, that is, purchasing electricity on a fixed rate, was the next cheapest with an energy cost of $14,266,870 from March 1, 2005 to February 28, 2006, 3% higher than purchasing electricity at the tiered price. The most expensive method to purchase electricity would have been the spot market. Its energy costs would have been approximately $18,171,610, 36% and 31% higher, respectively, than purchasing electricity at the tiered price and the fixed rate.
Afanador Delgado, Catalina
Analysis of Long-range Clean Energy Investment Scenarios forEritrea, East Africa
We discuss energy efficiency and renewable energy investments in Eritrea from the strategic long-term economic perspective of meeting Eritrea's sustainable development goals and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Energy efficiency and renewable energy are potentially important contributors to national productive capital accumulation, enhancement of the environment, expansion of energy services, increases in household standard of living, and improvements in health. In this study we develop a spreadsheet model for calculating some of the national benefits and costs of different levels of investment in energy efficiency and renewable energy. We then present the results of the model in terms of investment demand and investment scenario curves. These curves express the contribution that efficiency and renewable energy projects can make in terms of reduced energy sector operating expenses, and reduced carbon emissions. We provide demand and supply curves that show the rate of return, the cost of carbon emissions reductions vs. supply, and the evolution of the marginal carbon emissions per dollar of GDP for different investment levels and different fuel-type subsectors.
Van Buskirk, Robert D.
Analysis of Severe Accident Scenarios and Proposals for Safety Improvements for ADS Transmuters with Dedicated Fuel
So-called dedicated fuels will be utilized to obtain maximum transmutation and incineration rates of minor actinides (MAs) in accelerator-driven systems (ADSs). These fuels are characterized by a high-MA content and the lack of the classical fertile materials such as {sup 238}U or {sup 232}Th. Dedicated fuels still have to be developed; however, programs are under way for their fabrication, irradiation, and testing. In Europe, mainly the oxide route is investigated and developed. A dedicated core will contain multiple 'critical' fuel masses, resulting in a certain recriticality potential under core degradation conditions. The use of dedicated fuels may also lead to strong deterioration of the safety parameters of the reactor core, such as, e.g., the void worth, Doppler or the kinetics quantities, neutron generation time, and {beta}{sub eff}. Critical reactors with this kind of fuel might encounter safety problems, especially under severe accident conditions. For ADSs, it is assumed that because of the subcriticality of the system, the poor safety features of such fuels could be coped with. Analyses reveal some safety problems for ADSs with dedicated fuels. Additional inherent and passive safety measures are proposed to achieve the required safety level. A safety strategy along the lines of a defense approach is presented where these measures can be integrated. The ultimate goal of these measures is to eliminate any mechanistic severe accident scenario and the potential for energetics.
Maschek, Werner [Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe Institute for Nuclear and Energy Technologies (Germany); Rineiski, Andrei [Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe Institute for Nuclear and Energy Technologies (Germany); Flad, Michael [Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe Institute for Nuclear and Energy Technologies (Germany); Morita, Koji [Kyushu University Institute of Environmental Systems (Japan); Coste, Pierre [Commissariat a l'Energie Atomique CE Grenoble (France)
A life cycle cost analysis framework for geologic storage of hydrogen : a scenario analysis.
The U.S. Department of Energy has an interest in large scale hydrogen geostorage, which would offer substantial buffer capacity to meet possible disruptions in supply. Geostorage options being considered are salt caverns, depleted oil/gas reservoirs, aquifers and potentially hard rock cavrns. DOE has an interest in assessing the geological, geomechanical and economic viability for these types of hydrogen storage options. This study has developed an ecocomic analysis methodology to address costs entailed in developing and operating an underground geologic storage facility. This year the tool was updated specifically to (1) a version that is fully arrayed such that all four types of geologic storage options can be assessed at the same time, (2) incorporate specific scenarios illustrating the model's capability, and (3) incorporate more accurate model input assumptions for the wells and storage site modules. Drawing from the knowledge gained in the underground large scale geostorage options for natural gas and petroleum in the U.S. and from the potential to store relatively large volumes of CO{sub 2} in geological formations, the hydrogen storage assessment modeling will continue to build on these strengths while maintaining modeling transparency such that other modeling efforts may draw from this project.
Kobos, Peter Holmes; Lord, Anna Snider; Borns, David James
Scenario-Driven Automatic Pattern Recognition in Nowcasting
The purpose of this paper is to illustrate how the construction of a knowledge-based system (KBS) to support nowcasting, can be used to guide and facilitate the development of objective pattern recognition algorithms for use with meteorological ...
Robert C. Mcarthur; James R. Davis; David Reynolds
Scenarios for a Clean Energy Future AEO Annual Energy Outlook
. Department of Energy DOT U. S. Department of Transportation EERE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy EIA Energy Information Administration EPA U.S. Environmental Protection Agency EPACT Energy Policy carbon dioxide CRADA cooperative research and development agreement CT combustion turbine DOE U.S
Conversion and Cogeneration Systems. Berkeley, California: Energy andto usable energy. The least efficient fuel conversion systemconversion systems: in a high par- ticipation scenario, it ranks first, while at a medium level of participation the energy
Authors, Various
Decadal Climatic Variability, Trends, and Future Scenarios for the North China Plain
Observed decadal climatic variability and trends for the north China plain (NCP) are assessed for significance with Kendall�s test and discussed in light of future climate scenarios from multi-GCM outputs from the Intergovernmental Panel on ...
Guobin Fu; Stephen P. Charles; Jingjie Yu; Changming Liu
Emission Scenario Dependency of Precipitation on Global Warming in the MIROC3.2 Model
The precipitation sensitivity per 1 K of global warming in twenty-first-century climate projections is smaller in an emission scenario with larger greenhouse gas concentrations and aerosol emissions, according to the Model for Interdisciplinary ...
Hideo Shiogama; Seita Emori; Kiyoshi Takahashi; Tatsuya Nagashima; Tomoo Ogura; Toru Nozawa; Toshihiko Takemura
The Potential Impacts of a Scenario of C02-Induced Climatic Change on Ontafio, Canada
In 1984, Environment Canada, Ontario Region, with financial and expert support from the Canadian Climate Program, initiated an interdisciplinary pilot study to investigate the potential impact, on Ontario, of a climate scenario which might be ...
S. J. Cohen; T. R. Allsopp
Ontology-based Software for Generating Scenarios for Characterizing Searches for Nuclear Materials
A software environment was created in which ontologies are used to significantly expand the number and variety of scenarios for special nuclear materials (SNM) detection based on a set of simple generalized initial descriptions. A framework was built that combined advanced reasoning from ontologies with geographical and other data sources to generate a much larger list of specific detailed descriptions from a simple initial set of user-input variables. This presentation shows how basing the scenario generation on a process of inferencing from multiple ontologies, including a new SNM Detection Ontology (DO) combined with data extraction from geodatabases, provided the desired significant variability of scenarios for testing search algorithms, including unique combinations of variables not previously expected. The various components of the software environment and the resulting scenarios generated will be discussed.
Ward, Richard C [ORNL; Sorokine, Alexandre [ORNL; Schlicher, Bob G [ORNL; Wright, Michael C [ORNL; Kruse, Kara L [ORNL
A Dynamical Interpretation of the Poleward Shift of the Jet Streams in Global Warming Scenarios
The role played by enhanced upper-tropospheric baroclinicity in the poleward shift of the jet streams in global warming scenarios is investigated. Major differences between the twentieth- and twenty-first-century simulations are first detailed ...
Gwendal Rivi�re
Lifecycle Cost and GHG Implications of a Hydrogen Energy Storage Scenario (Presentation)
Overview of life cycle cost and green house gas implications of a hydrogen energy storage scenario presented at the National Hydrogen Association Conference & Expo, Long Beach, CA, May 3-6, 2010
review work conduced by EERE contractors, see Aabakken, J.earlier study commissioned by EERE. 3 We conclude this paperbenefits estimation, and the FE-EERE Scenarios Working Group
Generating Rainfall and Temperature Scenarios at Multiple Sites: Examples from the Mediterranean
A statistical downscaling methodology was implemented to generate daily time series of temperature and rainfall for point locations within a catchment, based on the output from general circulation models. The rainfall scenarios were constructed ...
J. P. Palutikof; C. M. Goodess; S. J. Watkins; T. Holt
Uncertainty Assessment of Future Hydroclimatic Predictions: A Comparison of Probabilistic and Scenario-Based Approaches
During the last decade, numerous studies have been carried out to predict future climate based on climatic models run on the global scale and fed by plausible scenarios about anthropogenic forcing to climate. Based on climatic model output, ...
D. Koutsoyiannis; A. Efstratiadis; K. P. Georgakakos
Climate and Climate Impact Scenarios for Europe in a Warmer World
Scenarios for Europe in a warmer world, such as may result from increased atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, have been constructed using the early 20th century warming as an analogue. Mean temperature, Precipitation and pressure patterns for the ...
J. M. Lough; T. M. L. Wigley; J. P. Palutikof
Influencing managerial cognition and decisions using scenarios for long-range planning
This dissertation presents empirical findings related to two aspects of long-range planning: scenario planning as a planning method and cognition of planners. Long-range planning situations are encountered when designing ...
Phadnis, Shardul Sharad, 1978-
D-BAUGDepartement Bau, Umwelt und Geomatik [ Department of Civil, Environmental and Geomatic Engineering
Jahresverlauf hervorra- gend - aufgrund von regeltechnischen Pro- blemen werden aber zunehmend Wind- kraftwerke Wind- kraftwerke abgeschaltet. Wertvolle Energie wird so nicht genutzt. Gefördert vom Bund und Land- schaftlichen Geräte (Beispiel: Kosten für ein studentenmikroskop ca. 1000 eur), konnten durch dieses re-Investitions
Group Member Names: ________________________________________________ Scenario: You are the owner of a potato plant in Idaho. You have recently won a contract
: ________________________________________________ ________________________________________________ ________________________________________________ Scenario: You are the owner of a potato plant in Idaho. You have recently won a contract to supply Mc
Provancher, William
jSynoPSys -- A Scenario-Based Testing Tool based on the Symbolic Animation of B Machines
This paper presents the jSynoPSys tool that implements the concept of Scenario-Based Testing from B machines. This consists in describing execution scenarios, expressed as regular expressions over the operations of the system, coupled with intermediate ... Keywords: B machines, Test generation, constraint solving, scenario-based testing, symbolic animation
Fr�d�ric Dadeau; R�gis Tissot
Assessment of effectiveness of geologic isolation systems. A conceptual simulation model for release scenario analysis of a hypothetical site in Columbia Plateau Basalts
This report is a status report for an evolving methodology for release scenario development for underground nuclear waste repositories. As such, it is intended for use as a reference point and a preliminary description of an evolving geoscience methodology. When completed this methodology will be used as a tool in developing disruptive release scenarios for analyzing the long-term safety of geological nuclear waste repositories. While a basalt environment is used as an example, this report is not intended to reflect an actual site safety assessment for a repository in a media. It is rather intended to present a methodology system framework and to provide discussions of the geological phenomena and parameters that must be addressed in order to develop a methodology for potential release scenarios. It is also important to note that the phenomena, their interrelationships, and their relative importance along with the overall current structure of the model will change as new geological information is gathered through additional peer review, geotechnical input, site specific field work, and related research efforts.
Stottlemyre, J.A.; Petrie, G.M.; Benson, G.L.; Zellmer, J.T.
Analysis of market penetration scenarios of clean coal technologies in China using the LLNL China Energy Model
This paper presents the results of an analysis of the market penetration of Clean Coal Technologies in the electric utility market in China. The analysis is based on a model of the Chinese energy system developed at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. Under this model, the market penetration of a technology depends on the relative prices of all technologies in a market. The model assumes that for each technology there is a distribution of effective prices to the consumers in the market place. The prices for each technology computed in the model are assumed to be the means of these distributions: sometime the effective price is greater than this and sometimes it is less. Thus even a relatively expensive technology may cost less than its competitors in a fraction of the transactions. Using several scenarios about the possible dispersion of prices, we estimate the market share of CCTs over the next 50 years. We find that some CCTs penetrate under all scenarios, but the more expensive ones only show significant penetration when larger values of price dispersion are assumed. Generally the penetration of the CCTs is 15% or less of the market by 2020. However, advanced pulverized coal does exceed 15% in some cases.
Lamont, A
A Low-Carbon Fuel Standard for California, Part 1: Technical Analysis
10% vol. ) #3. Increase CNG sales to vehicles #4. IntroduceBAU BAU Low-GHG Biofuel CNG Electricity BAU BAU BAU BAUzero GHG Biofuel Vehicles CNG vehicles (H5, H10, H15) Plug-
Farrell, Alexander; Sperling, Daniel
An inquiry into the potential of scenario analysis for dealing with uncertainty in strategic environmental assessment in China
Strategic environmental assessment (SEA) inherently needs to address greater levels of uncertainty in the formulation and implementation processes of strategic decisions, compared with project environmental impact assessment. The range of uncertainties includes internal and external factors of the complex system that is concerned in the strategy. Scenario analysis is increasingly being used to cope with uncertainty in SEA. Following a brief introduction of scenarios and scenario analysis, this paper examines the rationale for scenario analysis in SEA in the context of China. The state of the art associated with scenario analysis applied to SEA in China was reviewed through four SEA case analyses. Lessons learned from these cases indicated the word 'scenario' appears to be abused and the scenario-based methods appear to be misused due to the lack of understanding of an uncertain future and scenario analysis. However, good experiences were also drawn on, regarding how to integrate scenario analysis into the SEA process in China, how to cope with driving forces including uncertainties, how to combine qualitative scenario storylines with quantitative impact predictions, and how to conduct assessments and propose recommendations based on scenarios. Additionally, the ways to improve the application of this tool in SEA were suggested. We concluded by calling for further methodological research on this issue and more practices.
Zhu Zhixi, E-mail: firstname.lastname@example.com; Bai, Hongtao, E-mail: firstname.lastname@example.com; Xu He, E-mail: email@example.com; Zhu Tan, E-mail: firstname.lastname@example.com
Multi-Path Transportation Futures Study: Vehicle Characterization and Scenario Analyses - Appendix E: Other NEMS-MP Results for the Base Case and Scenarios
Appendix E: Other NEMS-MP Results Appendix E: Other NEMS-MP Results for the Base Case and Scenarios Energy Systems Division Availability of This Report This report is available, at no cost, at http://www.osti.gov/bridge. It is also available on paper to the U.S. Department of Energy and its contractors, for a processing fee, from: U.S. Department of Energy Office of Scientific and Technical Information P.O. Box 62
Suggestions for benchmark scenarios for MSSM Higgs Boson searches at hadron colliders.
The Higgs boson search has shifted from LEP2 to the Tevatron and will subsequently move to the LHC. Due to the different initial states, the Higgs production and decay channels relevant for Higgs boson searches were different at LEP2 to what they are at hadron colliders. They suggest new benchmark scenarios for the MSSM Higgs boson search at hadron colliders that exemplify the phenomenology of different parts of the MSSM parameter space. Besides the m{sub h}{sup max} scenario and the no-mixing scenario used in the LEP2 Higgs boson searches, they propose two new scenarios. In one the main production channel at the LHC, gg {yields} h, is suppressed. In the other, important Higgs decay channels at the Tevatron and at the LCH, h {yields} b{bar b} and h {yields} {tau}{sup +}{tau}{sup -}, are suppressed. All scenarios evade the LEP2 constraints for nearly the whole M{sub A}-tan {beta}-plane.
Carena, M.; Heinemeyer, S.; Wagner, C.E.M.; Weiglein, G.
Transportation Assessment Toolkit/Home | Open Energy Information
source source History View New Pages Recent Changes All Special Pages Semantic Search/Querying Get Involved Help Apps Datasets Community Login | Sign Up Search Page Edit History Facebook icon Twitter icon » Transportation Assessment Toolkit/Home < Transportation Assessment Toolkit Jump to: navigation, search Home Transport Topics Ask an Expert Training Contact us What are the key actions necessary to implementing a transportation system LEDS? Action 1: Evaluate the existing transport system Action 2: Develop BAU scenario Action 3: Assess opportunities Avoid-Shift-Improve framework of strategies Action 4: Develop alternative scenarios Action 5: Prioritize and plan Action 6: Implement and monitor Transportation Assessment Toolkit Train licensed.png Transportation Assessment Toolkit Information licensed.png Transportation Assessment Toolkit Learning licensed.png
An Analysis of Concentrating Solar Power with Thermal Energy Storage in a California 33% Renewable Scenario (Report Summary) (Presentation), NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)
An Analysis of Concentrating Solar Power An Analysis of Concentrating Solar Power with Thermal Energy Storage in a California 33% Renewable Scenario (Report Summary) Paul Denholm, Yih-Huei Wan, Marissa Hummon, Mark Mehos March 2013 NREL/PR-6A20-58470 2 Motivation * Implement concentrating solar power (CSP) with thermal energy storage (TES) in a commercial production cost model o Develop approaches that can be used by utilities and system planners to incorporate CSP in standard planning tools * Evaluate the optimal dispatch of CSP with TES o How would a plant actually be used to minimize system production cost? * Quantify the value of adding storage to CSP in a high renewable energy (RE) scenario in California
Higgs Search Constraints on Fourth Generation Scenarios with General Lepton Sectors
I present a general exclusion bound for the Higgs in fourth generation scenarios with a general lepton sector. Recent Higgs searches in fourth generation scenarios rule out the entire Higgs mass region between 120 and 600 GeV. That such a large range of Higgs masses are excluded is due to the presence of extra heavy flavors of quarks, which substantially increase Higgs production from gluon fusion over the Standard Model rate. However, if heavy fourth generation neutrinos are less than half of the Higgs mass, they can dominate the Higgs decay branching fraction, overtaking the standard Higgs to WW* decay rate. The Higgs mass exclusion in a fourth generation scenario is shown most generally to be 155-600 GeV, and is highly dependent on the fourth generation neutrino mixing parameter.
Linda M. Carpenter
Risk Mathematics and Quantum Games on Quantum Risk Structures - A Nuclear War Scenario Game
Quantum game theory is combined with risk mathematics' formalism to provide an approach to evolutionary scenario analysis. The formalism is addressed in its general form and is then applied to an extreme risks modelling case, to model a coevolving dynamical web of systemic situations representing the evolution of the regional tensions between two countries with nuclear weapons. The model's results are addressed regarding the potential for regional nuclear conflict to take place, and how evolutionary scenario analysis may contribute to nuclear war threat assessment and dynamical risk analysis. A final discussion is provided in what regards risk mathematics based on the evolutionary approach to risk assessement resulting from the combination of quantum game theory, morphic web representations and scenario analysis.
Carlos Pedro Gon�alves
Calculation of SY tank annulus continuous air monitor readings after postulated leak scenarios
The objective of this work was to determine whether or not a continuous air monitor (CAM) monitoring the annulus of one of the SY Tanks would be expected to alarm after three postulated leak scenarios. Using data and references provided by Lockheed Martin`s Tank Farm personnel, estimated CAM readings were calculated at specific times after the postulated scenarios might have occurred. Potential CAM readings above background at different times were calculated for the following leak scenarios: Leak rate of 0.01 gal/min; Leak rate of 0.03 gal/min (best estimate of the maximum probable leak rate from a single-shell tank); and Leak of 73 gal (equivalent to a {1/4}-in. leak on the floor of the annulus). The equation used to make the calculations along with descriptions and/or explanations of the terms are included, as is a list of the assumptions and/or values used for the calculations.
Kenoyer, J.L.
Natural gas network resiliency to a %22shakeout scenario%22 earthquake.
A natural gas network model was used to assess the likely impact of a scenario San Andreas Fault earthquake on the natural gas network. Two disruption scenarios were examined. The more extensive damage scenario assumes the disruption of all three major corridors bringing gas into southern California. If withdrawals from the Aliso Canyon storage facility are limited to keep the amount of stored gas within historical levels, the disruption reduces Los Angeles Basin gas supplies by 50%. If Aliso Canyon withdrawals are only constrained by the physical capacity of the storage system to withdraw gas, the shortfall is reduced to 25%. This result suggests that it is important for stakeholders to put agreements in place facilitating the withdrawal of Aliso Canyon gas in the event of an emergency.
Ellison, James F.; Corbet, Thomas Frank,; Brooks, Robert E. [RBAC, Inc., Sherman Oaks, CA
A Qualitative Assessment of Diversion Scenarios for an Example Sodium Fast Reactor Using the GEN IV PR&PP Methodology
FAST REACTORS;NUCLEAR ENERGY;NUCLEAR MATERIALS MANAGEMENT;PROLIFERATION;SAFEGUARDS;THEFT; A working group was created in 2002 by the Generation IV International Forum (GIF) for the purpose of developing an internationally accepted methodology for assessing the Proliferation Resistance of a nuclear energy system (NES) and its individual elements. A two year case study is being performed by the experts group using this methodology to assess the proliferation resistance of a hypothetical NES called the Example Sodium Fast Reactor (ESFR). This work demonstrates how the PR and PP methodology can be used to provide important information at various levels of details to NES designers, safeguard administrators and decision makers. The study analyzes the response of the complete ESFR nuclear energy system to different proliferation and theft strategies. The challenges considered include concealed diversion, concealed misuse and 'break out' strategies. This paper describes the work done in performing a qualitative assessment of concealed diversion scenarios from the ESFR.
Zentner, Michael D.; Coles, Garill A.; Therios, Ike
PhotoVoltaic distributed generation for Lanai power grid real-time simulation and control integration scenario.
This paper discusses the modeling, analysis, and testing in a real-time simulation environment of the Lanai power grid system for the integration and control of PhotoVoltaic (PV) distributed generation. The Lanai Island in Hawaii is part of the Hawaii Clean Energy Initiative (HCEI) to transition to 30% renewable green energy penetration by 2030. In Lanai the primary loads come from two Castle and Cook Resorts, in addition to residential needs. The total peak load profile is 12470 V, 5.5 MW. Currently there are several diesel generators that meet these loading requirements. As part of the HCEI, Lanai has initially installed 1.2 MW of PV generation. The goal of this study has been to evaluate the impact of the PV with respect to the conventional carbon-based diesel generation in real time simulation. For intermittent PV distributed generation, the overall stability and transient responses are investigated. A simple Lanai 'like' model has been developed in the Matlab/Simulink environment (see Fig. 1) and to accommodate real-time simulation of the hybrid power grid system the Opal-RT Technologies RT-Lab environment is used. The diesel generators have been modelled using the SimPowerSystems toolbox swing equations and a custom Simulink module has been developed for the High level PV generation. All of the loads have been characterized primarily as distribution lines with series resistive load banks with one VAR load bank. Three-phase faults are implemented for each bus. Both conventional and advanced control architectures will be used to evaluate the integration of the PV onto the current power grid system. The baseline numerical results include the stable performance of the power grid during varying cloud cover (PV generation ramping up/down) scenarios. The importance of assessing the real-time scenario is included.
Robinett, Rush D., III; Kukolich, Keith (Opal RT Technologies, Montreal, Quebec, Canada); Wilson, David Gerald; Schenkman, Benjamin L.
Local population impacts of geothermal energy development in the Geysers: Calistoga region
The country-level population increase implications of two long-term geothermal development scenarios for the Geysers region in California are addressed. This region is defined to include the counties of Lake, Sonoma, Mendocino and Napa, all four in northern California. The development scenarios include two components: development for electrical energy production and direct use applications. Electrical production scenarios are derived by incorporating current development patterns into previous development scenarios by both industry and research organizations. The scenarios are made county-specific, specific to the type of geothermal system constructed, and are projected through the year 2000. Separate high growth rate and low growth rate scenarios are developed, based on a set of specified assumptions. Direct use scenarios are estimated from the nature of the available resource, existing local economic and demographic patterns, and available experience with various separate direct use options. From the composite development scenarios, required numbers of direct and indirect employees and the resultant in-migration patterns are estimated. In-migration patterns are compared to current county level population and ongoing trends in the county population change for each of the four counties. From this comparison, conclusions are drawn concerning the contributions of geothermal resource development to future population levels and the significance of geothermally induced population increase from a county planning perspective.
Haven, K.F.; Berg, V.; Ladson, Y.W.
English Scenarios
... Donald Carroll returns to Riverview RadOnc Center and received low dose external proton beam radiation to the left neck today, supervised by Dr. ...
Hydrogen Scenarios
VMT Shares Rural Small City Large City OnLocation, Inc., Energy Systems Consulting 11 H2 Production and Delivery Costs CentralCity Gate Production - Large City Markets Central -...
Fission Product Impact Reduction via Protracted In-core Retention in Very High Temperature Reactor (VHTR) Transmutation Scenarios
The closure of the nuclear fuel cycle is a topic of interest in the sustainability context of nuclear energy. The implication of such closure includes considerations of nuclear waste management. This originates from the fact that a closed fuel cycle requires recycling of useful materials from spent nuclear fuel and discarding of non-usable streams of the spent fuel, which are predominantly the fission products. The fission products represent the near-term concerns associated with final geological repositories for the waste stream. Long-lived fission products also contribute to the long-term concerns associated with such repository. In addition, an ultimately closed nuclear fuel cycle in which all actinides from spent nuclear fuels are incinerated will result in fission products being the only source of radiotoxicity. Hence, it is desired to develop a transmutation strategy that will achieve reduction in the inventory and radiological parameters of significant fission products within a reasonably short time. In this dissertation, a transmutation strategy involving the use of the VHTR is developed. A set of specialized metrics is developed and applied to evaluate performance characteristics. The transmutation strategy considers six major fission products: 90Sr, 93Zr, 99Tc, 129I, 135Cs and 137Cs. In this approach, the unique core features of VHTRs operating in equilibrium fuel cycle mode of 405 effective full power days are used for transmutation of the selected fission products. A 30 year irradiation period with 10 post-irradiation cooling is assumed. The strategy assumes no separation of each nuclide from its corresponding material stream in the VHTR fuel cycle. The optimum locations in the VHTR core cavity leading to maximized transmutation of each selected nuclides are determined. The fission product transmutation scenarios are simulated with MCNP and ORIGEN-S. The results indicate that the developed fission product transmutation strategy offers an excellent potential approach for the reduction of inventories and radiological parameters, particularly for long-lived fission products (93Zr, 99Tc, 129I and 135Cs). It has been determined that the in-core transmutation of relatively short-lived fission products (90Sr and 137Cs) has minimal advantage over a decay-only scenario for these nuclides. It is concluded that the developed strategy is a viable option for the reduction of radiotoxicity contributions of the selected fission products prior to their final disposal in a geological repository. Even in the cases where the transmutation advantage is minimal, it is deemed that the improvement gained, coupled with the virtual storage provided for the fission products during the irradiation period, makes the developed fission product transmutation strategy advantageous in the spent fuel management scenarios. Combined with the in-core incineration options for TRU, the developed transmutation strategy leads to potential achievability of engineering time scales in the comprehensive nuclear waste management.
Alajo, Ayodeji Babatunde
Regional operations research program for development of geothermal energy in the Southwest United States; third quarterly report
Continuation of efforts in data acquistion, electric and non-electric economic studies, development of computer support functions and operations, and preparation of geothermal development scenarios are described. Temperature data used in economic analysis and scenario development are given in an appendix as are the details of a revised economic model.
Marlin, J.M.
Realisable Scenarios for a Future Electricity Supply based 100% on Renewable Energies
Realisable Scenarios for a Future Electricity Supply based 100% on Renewable Energies Gregor Czisch that we must transform our energy system into one using only renewable energies. But questions arise how. These questions were the focus of a study which investigated the cost optimum of a future renewable electricity
Scenario analysis for the role of sanitation infrastructures in integrated urban wastewater management
Traditionally, the sanitation infrastructures of most of the Urban Wastewater Systems (UWSs) have been managed individually, without considering the many relationships among the sewer systems, Wastewater Treatment Plants (WWTPs) and receiving waters. ... Keywords: Ammonia concentration, Catchment, Expert knowledge, Management scenarios, Model integration, Sanitation infrastructure control, Water Framework Directive, Water quality
F. Devesa; J. Comas; C. Turon; A. Freix�; F. Carrasco; M. Poch
Psychiatric Consultation Record Retrieval Using Scenario-Based Representation and Multilevel Mixture Model
Psychiatric consultation record retrieval attempts to help people to efficiently and effectively locate the consultation records relevant to their depressive problems. Consultation records can also make people aware that they are not alone, because many ... Keywords: Information retrieval (IR), multilevel mixture model (MMM), natural language processing, scenario-based representation, text mining
Liang-Chih Yu; Chung-Hsien Wu; Fong-Lin Jang
Self-adaptive and time-constrained data distribution paths for emergency response scenarios
Emergency response scenarios where team members coordinate impromptu towards the common human rescue goal are pushing to the extreme the demand for novel services fully aware of any (dynamically collected) relevant information describing the disaster ... Keywords: adaptive context data distribution, context data distribution, context-awareness, disaster areas
Mario Fanelli; Luca Foschini; Antonio Corradi; Azzedine Boukerche
Energy-efficient forwarding mechanism for wireless opportunistic networks in emergency scenarios
During emergency situations, the use of mobile devices and wireless opportunistic networks as a solution of destroyed or overused communication networks are vital. In these cases, the fast and reliable delivery of emergency information, together with ... Keywords: Emergency scenarios, Energy-efficiency, Opportunistic forwarding, Opportunistic networks, Performance evaluation
Abraham Mart�N-Campillo; Ramon Mart�
An economic assessment of the impact of two crude oil price scenarios on households
The impact of two possible future crude oil price scenarios -- high and low price cases -- is assessed for three population groups: majority (non-Hispanic and nonblack), black, and Hispanic. The two price scenarios were taken from the energy security'' report published by the US Department of Energy in 1987. Effects of the two crude oil price scenarios for the 1986--95 period are measured for energy demand and composition and for share of income spent on energy by the three population groups at both the national and census-region levels. The effects on blacks are marginally more adverse than on majority householders, while effects on Hispanics are about the same as those on the majority. Little change is seen in percentage of income spent on energy over the forecast period. Both Hispanic and black households would spend a larger share of their incomes on energy than would majority households. The relatively adverse effects in the higher price scenario shift from the South and West Census regions to the Northeast and Midwest. 24 refs., 7 figs., 22 tabs.
Poyer, D.A.; Teotia, A.P.S.; Hemphill, R.C.; Hill, L.G.; Marinelli, J.L.; Rose, K.J.; Santini, D.J.
Future restrictions on diesel fuel combustion in California: Energy and emissions implications of four scenarios
The paper discusses alternatives to diesel displacement, describing several scenarios. It studies three basic cases: (1) cars and trucks; (2) urban buses; and (3) off-road vehicles. The discussion also includes changes in energy use and emissions expected from the production and combustion of alternative fuels.
Saricks, C.L.; Rote, D.M.; Stodolsky, F.; Eberhardt, J.J.
Scenario Tree-Based Heuristics for Stochastic Inventory-Routing Problems
In vendor-managed inventory replenishment, the vendor decides when to make deliveries to customers, how much to deliver, and how to combine shipments using the available vehicles. This gives rise to the inventory-routing problem in which the goal is ... Keywords: heuristic, inventory routing, scenario, stochastic
Lars Magnus Hvattum; Arne L�kketangen; Gilbert Laporte
Low-Energy Supersymmetry Breaking from String Flux Compactifications: Benchmark Scenarios
Soft supersymmetry breaking terms were recently derived for type IIB string flux compactifications with all moduli stabilised. Depending on the choice of the discrete input parameters of the compactification such as fluxes and ranks of hidden gauge groups, the string scale was found to have any value between the TeV and GUT scales. We study the phenomenological implications of these compactifications at low energy. Three realistic scenarios can be identified depending on whether the Standard Model lies on D3 or D7 branes and on the value of the string scale. For the MSSM on D7 branes and the string scale between 10^12 GeV and 10^17 GeV we find that the LSP is a neutralino, while for lower scales it is the stop. At the GUT scale the results of the fluxed MSSM are reproduced, but now with all moduli stabilised. For the MSSM on D3 branes we identify two realistic scenarios. The first one corresponds to an intermediate string scale version of split supersymmetry. The second is a stringy mSUGRA scenario. This requires tuning of the flux parameters to obtain the GUT scale. Phenomenological constraints from dark matter, (g-2)_mu and BR(b->s gamma) are considered for the three scenarios. We provide benchmark points with the MSSM spectrum, making the models suitable for a detailed phenomenological analysis.
Benjamin C. Allanach; Fernando Quevedo; Kerim Suruliz
A new hydrothermal scenario for the 2006 Lusi eruption, Indonesia. Insights from gas geochemistry
acquired a wide set of data of molecular and isotopic composition of gas sampled in several Lusi vents, in the surrounding mud volcanoes, in the closest natural gas field (Wunut), and in the hydrothermal ventsA new hydrothermal scenario for the 2006 Lusi eruption, Indonesia. Insights from gas geochemistry
Mazzini, Adriano
Using decision scenarios to evaluate laypeople's computer-mediated medication information sharing choices
Motivation - Abstract surveys are currently the primary source of data guiding policy-makers as they frame laypeople's choices to electronically share their health information with care providers. Research approach - We presented laypeople (N=31) with ... Keywords: decision scenario, decision-making, health care, informatics, policy
Jenna L. Marquard; Patricia Flatley Brennan
A Context Model and Reasoning System to improve object trackingin complex scenarios
Tracking algorithms in computer vision usually fail when dealing with complex scenarios. This paper presents an extension of a general tracking system that uses context knowledge to solve tracking issues. The context layer represents knowledge about ... Keywords: Context based reasoning, Knowledge modeling, Video processing, Visual tracking
A. M. S�nchez; M. A. Patricio; J. Garc�a; J. M. Molina
Thorough analysis of 802.11e star topology scenarios in the presence of hidden nodes
In this paper the authors present a simulation study of two 802.11e network scenarios. The presented analysis is not only novel but most of all crucial for understanding how a theoretically simple star topology network can be degraded by the presence ... Keywords: IEEE 802.11e, QoS, hidden nodes
Katarzyna Kosek; Marek Natkaniec; Luca Vollero
Direct Discovery Prospects for the Light CP-odd Higgs Boson of NMSSM Ideal Higgs Scenarios
Direct Discovery Prospects for the Light CP-odd Higgs Boson of NMSSM Ideal Higgs Scenarios Jack on the following papers with R. Dermisek: · New constraints on a light CP-odd Higgs boson and related NMSSM Ideal CP-odd Higgs boson at the Tevatron and LHC. Published in Phys.Rev.D81:055001,2010, arXiv:0911
California at Santa Cruz, University of
Defining assessment projects and scenarios for policy support: Use of ontology in Integrated Assessment and Modelling
Integrated Assessment and Modelling (IAM) provides an interdisciplinary approach to support ex-ante decision-making by combining quantitative models representing different systems and scales into a framework for integrated assessment. Scenarios in IAM ... Keywords: Collaborative approach, Integration, Knowledge management, Multi-disciplinary teams, Policy assessment
S. Janssen; F. Ewert; Hongtao Li; I. N. Athanasiadis; J. J. F. Wien; O. Th�rond; M. J. R. Knapen; I. Bezlepkina; J. Alkan-Olsson; A. E. Rizzoli; H. Belhouchette; M. Svensson; M. K. van Ittersum
Scenario Formulation of Stochastic Linear Programs and the Homogeneous Self-Dual Interior-Point Method
We consider a homogeneous self-dual interior-point algorithm for solving multistage stochastic linear programs. The algorithm is particularly suitable for the so-called �scenario formulation� of the problem, whose constraint system consists ... Keywords: decomposition, interior-point methods, multistage stochastic linear programs
Jie Sun; Xinwei Liu
Chance discovery with data crystallization for scenario formation in solar cell technology
As the solar cell, one of renewable energies, is growing at a fast pace, the recognition of its technological situation becomes necessary for a company and stakeholders nowadays. Meanwhile, the patent data contains plentiful technological information ... Keywords: chance discovery, data crystallization, patent data, scenario formation, solar cell
Tzu-Fu Chiu; Chao-Fu Hong; Ming-Yeu Wang; Yu-Ting Chiu
Design of novel hybrid controller for automatic generation control of hydrothermal system under open market scenario
This paper presents the analysis of Automatic generation control (AGC) of a two-area hydrothermal system under open market scenario by considering a novel hybrid controller which combines the principles of variable structure controller (VSC) and conventional ... Keywords: AGC, VSC, deregulated system, hybrid controller, hydrothermal system, open market system
C. Srinivasa Rao; S. Siva Nagaraju; P. Sangameswara Raju
POEM-PM: an emission model for secondary pollution control scenarios
The paper describes the POEM-PM (POllutant Emission Model for gas and Particulate Matter) emission model design. The model, providing actual and alternative emission scenarios, represents a decision support tool to evaluate emission control strategy ... Keywords: Air pollution control, Emission model, Emission model validation, Multiphase modelling system
Claudio Carnevale; Veronica Gabusi; Marialuisa Volta
Alternative Scenarios of Relativistic Heavy-Ion Collisions: II. Particle Production
Particle production in relativistic collisions of heavy nuclei is analyzed in a wide range of incident energies 2.7 GeV $\\le \\sqrt{s_{NN}}\\le$ 62.4 GeV. The analysis is performed within the three-fluid model employing three different equations of state (EoS): a purely hadronic EoS, an EoS with the first-order phase transition and that with a smooth crossover transition. It is found that the hadronic scenario fails to reproduce experimental yields of antibaryons (strange and nonstrange), starting already from lower SPS energies, i.e. $\\sqrt{s_{NN}}>$ 5 GeV. Moreover, at energies above the top SPS one, i.e. $\\sqrt{s_{NN}}>$ 17.4 GeV, the mid-rapidity densities predicted by the hadronic scenario considerably exceed the available RHIC data on all species. At the same time the deconfinement-transition scenarios reasonably agree (to a various extent) with all the data. The present analysis demonstrates certain advantage of the deconfinement-transition EoS's. However, all scenarios fail to reproduce the strangeness enhancement in the incident energy range near 30A GeV (i.e. a horn anomaly in the $K^+/\\pi^+$ ratio) and yields of $\\phi$-mesons at 20A--40A GeV.
Yu. B. Ivanov
Rip Singularity Scenario and Bouncing Universe in a Chaplygin Gas Dark Energy Model
We choose a modified Chaplygin Gas Dark energy model for considering some its cosmological behaviors. In this regards, we study different Rip singularity scenarios and bouncing model of the universe in context of this model. We show that by using suitable parameters can explain some cosmological aspects of the model.
S. Davood Sadatian
Political Scenario in Bhutan during 1774-1906: An Impact Analysis on Trade and Commerce
Relations with Bhutan, p. 193. 24 Proceedings of the Lieutenant Governor of Bengal, Oct, referred in Gupta, British Relations with Bhutan, p. 141. 6 Political Scenario in Bhutan during 1774-1906 market for English cloth and brass and copper ware.�25...
Sarkar, Ratna; Ray, Indrajit
Wikis in Collaborative Educational Scenarios: Integrated in LMS or Standalone Wikis?
This article outlines a set of features that wiki engines require to successfully host collaborative educational scenarios. The authors explore multiple issues that deal with the use wikis with learning activities. One of the first issues to solve is ... Keywords: E-Learning, Education, Learning Management System, Social Learning, Wikis
Marc Alier Forment; Xavier De Pedro; Maria Jose Casa�; Jordi Piguillem; Nikolas Galanis
Chance discovery and scenario analysis for trend exploration on solar cell technology
It is essential for managers and stakeholders to well understand the trends of a certain technology so that managers can enhance the performance of a company and stakeholders can make appropriate decisions for investment. Solar cell, one of renewable ... Keywords: chance discovery, knowledge extraction, knowledge retrieval, patent data, patents, scenario analysis, solar cells, technology trends, trend exploration
Tzu-Fu Chiu
Evaluating functional displays for hydropower system: model-based guidance of scenario design
We discuss the human role in hydropower system control, noting how it is different from other supervisory control environments and noting the typical shortcomings in current displays provided to hydropower system controllers. We describe steps towards ... Keywords: Evaluation, Functional displays, Human control model, Human supervisory control, Hydropower system control, Scenario design, Situation awareness, Trust
Xilin Li; Penelope Sanderson; Rizah Memisevic; William Wong; Sanjib Choudhury
Modular Hybridization of Solar Thermal Power Plants for Developing Nations.
?? The current energy scenario in the developing nations with abundant sun resource (e.g. southernMediterranean countries of Europe, Middle-East & North Africa) relies mainly on� (more)
Darwish, Mazen
Integrated modelling of steady-state scenarios and heating and current drive mixes for ITER
Recent progress on ITER steady-state (SS) scenario modelling by the ITPA-IOS group is reviewed. Code-to-code benchmarks as the IOS group's common activities for the two SS scenarios (weak shear scenario and internal transport barrier scenario) are discussed in terms of transport, kinetic profiles, and heating and current drive (CD) sources using various transport codes. Weak magnetic shear scenarios integrate the plasma core and edge by combining a theory-based transport model (GLF23) with scaled experimental boundary profiles. The edge profiles (at normalized radius rho = 0.8-1.0) are adopted from an edge-localized mode-averaged analysis of a DIII-D ITER demonstration discharge. A fully noninductive SS scenario is achieved with fusion gain Q = 4.3, noninductive fraction f(NI) = 100%, bootstrap current fraction f(BS) = 63% and normalized beta beta(N) = 2.7 at plasma current I(p) = 8MA and toroidal field B(T) = 5.3 T using ITER day-1 heating and CD capability. Substantial uncertainties come from outside the radius of setting the boundary conditions (rho = 0.8). The present simulation assumed that beta(N)(rho) at the top of the pedestal (rho = 0.91) is about 25% above the peeling-ballooning threshold. ITER will have a challenge to achieve the boundary, considering different operating conditions (T(e)/T(i) approximate to 1 and density peaking). Overall, the experimentally scaled edge is an optimistic side of the prediction. A number of SS scenarios with different heating and CD mixes in a wide range of conditions were explored by exploiting the weak-shear steady-state solution procedure with the GLF23 transport model and the scaled experimental edge. The results are also presented in the operation space for DT neutron power versus stationary burn pulse duration with assumed poloidal flux availability at the beginning of stationary burn, indicating that the long pulse operation goal (3000s) at I(p) = 9 MA is possible. Source calculations in these simulations have been revised for electron cyclotron current drive including parallel momentum conservation effects and for neutral beam current drive with finite orbit and magnetic pitch effects.
Murakami, Masanori [ORNL; Park, Jin Myung [ORNL
A Scenario of Storm Surge Statistics for the German Bight at the Expected Time of Doubled Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Concentration
Past variations of water levels at Cuxhaven, Germany (German bight), are examined, and a scenario for future changes due to expected global warming is derived.
Hans von Storch; Hinrich Reichardt
A Water Conservation Scenario for the Residential and Industrial Sectors in California: Potential Saveings of Water and Related Energy
A WATER CONSERVATION SCENARIO FOR THE RESIDENTIAL ANDWater 'consumption, water conservation. City of Sacramento.Daniel Stockton. Water conservation. Contra Costa County
Benenson, P.
Hydrogen Scenario Analysis Summary Report: Analysis of the Transition to Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and the Potential Hydrogen Energy Infrastructure Requirements
Achieving a successful transition to hydrogen-powered vehicles in the U.S. automotive market will require strong and sustained commitment by hydrogen producers, vehicle manufacturers, transporters and retailers, consumers, and governments. The interaction of these agents in the marketplace will determine the real costs and benefits of early market transformation policies, and ultimately the success of the transition itself. The transition to hydrogen-powered transportation faces imposing economic barriers. The challenges include developing and refining a new and different power-train technology, building a supporting fuel infrastructure, creating a market for new and unfamiliar vehicles, and achieving economies of scale in vehicle production while providing an attractive selection of vehicle makes and models for car-buyers. The upfront costs will be high and could persist for a decade or more, delaying profitability until an adequate number of vehicles can be produced and moved into consumer markets. However, the potential rewards to the economy, environment, and national security are immense. Such a profound market transformation will require careful planning and strong, consistent policy incentives. Section 811 of the Energy Policy Act (EPACT) of 2005, Public Law 109-59 (U.S. House, 2005), calls for a report from the Secretary of Energy on measures to support the transition to a hydrogen economy. The report was to specifically address production and deployment of hydrogen-fueled vehicles and the hydrogen production and delivery infrastructure needed to support those vehicles. In addition, the 2004 report of the National Academy of Sciences (NAS, 2004), The Hydrogen Economy, contained two recommendations for analyses to be conducted by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to strengthen hydrogen energy transition and infrastructure planning for the hydrogen economy. In response to the EPACT requirement and NAS recommendations, DOE's Hydrogen, Fuel Cells and Infrastructure Technologies Program (HFCIT) has supported a series of analyses to evaluate alternative scenarios for deployment of millions of hydrogen fueled vehicles and supporting infrastructure. To ensure that these alternative market penetration scenarios took into consideration the thinking of the automobile manufacturers, energy companies, industrial hydrogen suppliers, and others from the private sector, DOE held several stakeholder meetings to explain the analyses, describe the models, and solicit comments about the methods, assumptions, and preliminary results (U.S. DOE, 2006a). The first stakeholder meeting was held on January 26, 2006, to solicit guidance during the initial phases of the analysis; this was followed by a second meeting on August 9-10, 2006, to review the preliminary results. A third and final meeting was held on January 31, 2007, to discuss the final analysis results. More than 60 hydrogen energy experts from industry, government, national laboratories, and universities attended these meetings and provided their comments to help guide DOE's analysis. The final scenarios attempt to reflect the collective judgment of the participants in these meetings. However, they should not be interpreted as having been explicitly endorsed by DOE or any of the stakeholders participating. The DOE analysis examined three vehicle penetration scenarios: Scenario 1--Production of thousands of vehicles per year by 2015 and hundreds of thousands per year by 2019. This option is expected to lead to a market penetration of 2.0 million fuel cell vehicles (FCV) by 2025. Scenario 2--Production of thousands of FCVs by 2013 and hundreds of thousands by 2018. This option is expected to lead to a market penetration of 5.0 million FCVs by 2025. Scenario 3--Production of thousands of FCVs by 2013, hundreds of thousands by 2018, and millions by 2021 such that market penetration is 10 million by 2025. Scenario 3 was formulated to comply with the NAS recommendation: 'DOE should map out and evaluate a transition plan consistent with developing the infrastructure a
Greene, David L [ORNL; Leiby, Paul Newsome [ORNL; James, Brian [Directed Technologies, Inc.; Perez, Julie [Directed Technologies, Inc.; Melendez, Margo [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL); Milbrandt, Anelia [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL); Unnasch, Stefan [Life Cycle Associates; Rutherford, Daniel [TIAX, LLC; Hooks, Matthew [TIAX, LLC
Achieving a successful transition to hydrogen-powered vehicles in the U.S. automotive market will require strong and sustained commitment by hydrogen producers, vehicle manufacturers, transporters and retailers, consumers, and governments. The interaction of these agents in the marketplace will determine the real costs and benefits of early market transformation policies, and ultimately the success of the transition itself. The transition to hydrogen-powered transportation faces imposing economic barriers. The challenges include developing and refining a new and different power-train technology, building a supporting fuel infrastructure, creating a market for new and unfamiliar vehicles, and achieving economies of scale in vehicle production while providing an attractive selection of vehicle makes and models for car-buyers. The upfront costs will be high and could persist for a decade or more, delaying profitability until an adequate number of vehicles can be produced and moved into consumer markets. However, the potential rewards to the economy, environment, and national security are immense. Such a profound market transformation will require careful planning and strong, consistent policy incentives. Section 811 of the Energy Policy Act (EPACT) of 2005, Public Law 109-59 (U.S. House, 2005), calls for a report from the Secretary of Energy on measures to support the transition to a hydrogen economy. The report was to specifically address production and deployment of hydrogen-fueled vehicles and the hydrogen production and delivery infrastructure needed to support those vehicles. In addition, the 2004 report of the National Academy of Sciences (NAS, 2004), The Hydrogen Economy, contained two recommendations for analyses to be conducted by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to strengthen hydrogen energy transition and infrastructure planning for the hydrogen economy. In response to the EPACT requirement and NAS recommendations, DOE's Hydrogen, Fuel Cells and Infrastructure Technologies Program (HFCIT) has supported a series of analyses to evaluate alternative scenarios for deployment of millions of hydrogen fueled vehicles and supporting infrastructure. To ensure that these alternative market penetration scenarios took into consideration the thinking of the automobile manufacturers, energy companies, industrial hydrogen suppliers, and others from the private sector, DOE held several stakeholder meetings to explain the analyses, describe the models, and solicit comments about the methods, assumptions, and preliminary results (U.S. DOE, 2006a). The first stakeholder meeting was held on January 26, 2006, to solicit guidance during the initial phases of the analysis; this was followed by a second meeting on August 9-10, 2006, to review the preliminary results. A third and final meeting was held on January 31, 2007, to discuss the final analysis results. More than 60 hydrogen energy experts from industry, government, national laboratories, and universities attended these meetings and provided their comments to help guide DOE's analysis. The final scenarios attempt to reflect the collective judgment of the participants in these meetings. However, they should not be interpreted as having been explicitly endorsed by DOE or any of the stakeholders participating. The DOE analysis examined three vehicle penetration scenarios: Scenario 1--Production of thousands of vehicles per year by 2015 and hundreds of thousands per year by 2019. This option is expected to lead to a market penetration of 2.0 million fuel cell vehicles (FCV) by 2025. Scenario 2--Production of thousands of FCVs by 2013 and hundreds of thousands by 2018. This option is expected to lead to a market penetration of 5.0 million FCVs by 2025. Scenario 3--Production of thousands of FCVs by 2013, hundreds of thousands by 2018, and millions by 2021 such that market penetration is 10 million by 2025. Scenario 3 was formulated to comply with the NAS recommendation: 'DOE should map out and evaluate a transition plan consistent with developing the infrastructure and hydrogen res
Economic Development Impacts of 20% Wind (Poster)
Meeting 20% of the nation's electricity demand with wind energy will require enourmous investment in wind farms, manufacturing, and infrastructure. This investment will create substantial economic development impacts on local, regional, and national levels. This conference poster for Windpower 2007 outlines the various economic development impacts from a 20% wind scenario.
Kelly, M.; Tegen, S.
Regional issue identification and assessment (RIIA). Volume I. An analysis of the TRENDLONG MID-MID Scenario for Federal Region 10
Environmental, human health and safety, socioeconomic and institutional impacts of future energy development for Federal Region 10, which includes the states of Alaska, Idaho, Oregon, and Washington, are reported. It is concluded that the reduction in electric generating capacity of 568 MWe specified by the scenario for Alaska will not be realized because of institutional constraints and economic impacts. Development of 1000 MWe of geothermal generating capacity in Region 10 called for by the scenario will not be met by 1990. Besides technical feasibility and economic contraints, procedures in Oregon and Washington for securing leases and siting permits have not been fully developed. The location and impacts associated with construction and operation of oil and gas transshipment facilities such as the proposed pipeline to transport natural gas from fields in northern Alaska to the lower 48 states and the pipeline to transport Alaskan oil through Washington State to refineries in the Midwest are likely to be important issues in the Region. The addition of 7,951 MWe to the currently existing hydroelectric generating capacity of 29,990 MWe by 1990 will intensify competition among multiple uses of limited water resources of the Columbia and Snake River systems which drain Idaho, Oregon, and Washington. Irrigation, recreation, transportation, maintenance of wildlife habitats and anadromous fisheries conflict and compete with hydroelectric power generation. Public opposition to further development of nuclear power currently exists and seems to be intensifying in light of recent events. The scenario-specified addition of 4,816 MWe of nuclear generating capacity to the Region's current nuclear capacity of 2,016 MWe may be jeopardized by this opposition; specifically the 1,174 MWe addition to Oregon's nuclear capacity may not be realized.
Wilfert, G. L.; Beckwith, M. A.; Cowan, C. E.; Keizur, G. R. [comps.
Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicle Value Proposition Study: Interim Report: Phase I Scenario Evaluation
Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) offer significant improvements in fuel economy, convenient low-cost recharging capabilities, potential environmental benefits, and decreased reliance on imported petroleum. However, the cost associated with new components (e.g., advanced batteries) to be introduced in these vehicles will likely result in a price premium to the consumer. This study aims to overcome this market barrier by identifying and evaluating value propositions that will increase the qualitative value and/or decrease the overall cost of ownership relative to the competing conventional vehicles and hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) of 2030 During this initial phase of this study, business scenarios were developed based on economic advantages that either increase the consumer value or reduce the consumer cost of PHEVs to assure a sustainable market that can thrive without the aid of state and Federal incentives or subsidies. Once the characteristics of a thriving PHEV market have been defined for this timeframe, market introduction steps, such as supportive policies, regulations and temporary incentives, needed to reach this level of sustainability will be determined. PHEVs have gained interest over the past decade for several reasons, including their high fuel economy, convenient low-cost recharging capabilities, potential environmental benefits and reduced use of imported petroleum, potentially contributing to President Bush's goal of a 20% reduction in gasoline use in ten years, or 'Twenty in Ten'. PHEVs and energy storage from advanced batteries have also been suggested as enabling technologies to improve the reliability and efficiency of the electric power grid. However, PHEVs will likely cost significantly more to purchase than conventional or other hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), in large part because of the cost of batteries. Despite the potential long-term savings to consumers and value to stakeholders, the initial cost of PHEVs presents a major market barrier to their widespread commercialization. The purpose of this project is to identify and evaluate value-added propositions for PHEVs that will help overcome this market barrier. Candidate value propositions for the initial case study were chosen to enhance consumer acceptance of PHEVs and/or compatibility with the grid. Potential benefits of such grid-connected vehicles include the ability to supply peak load or emergency power requirements of the grid, enabling utilities to size their generation capacity and contingency resources at levels below peak. Different models for vehicle/battery ownership, leasing, financing and operation, as well as the grid, communications, and vehicle infrastructure needed to support the proposed value-added functions were explored during Phase 1. Rigorous power system, vehicle, financial and emissions modeling were utilized to help identify the most promising value propositions and market niches to focus PHEV deployment initiatives.
Sikes, Karen R [ORNL; Markel, Lawrence C [ORNL; Hadley, Stanton W [ORNL; Hinds, Shaun [Sentech, Inc.; DeVault, Robert C [ORNL
Review of scenario selection approaches for performance assessment of high-level waste repositories and related issues.
The selection of scenarios representing plausible realizations of the future conditions-with associated probabilities of occurrence-that can affect the long-term performance of a high-level radioactive waste (HLW) repository is the commonly used method for treating the uncertainty in the prediction of the future states of the system. This method, conventionally referred to as the ``scenario approach,`` while common is not the only method to deal with this uncertainty; other method ``ch as the environmental simulation approach (ESA), have also been proposed. Two of the difficulties with the scenario approach are the lack of uniqueness in the definition of the term ``scenario`` and the lack of uniqueness in the approach to formulate scenarios, which relies considerably on subjective judgments. Consequently, it is difficult to assure that a complete and unique set of scenarios can be defined for use in a performance assessment. Because scenarios are key to the determination of the long-term performance of the repository system, this lack of uniqueness can present a considerable challenge when attempting to reconcile the set of scenarios, and their level of detail, obtained using different approaches, particularly among proponents and regulators of a HLW repository.
Banano, E.J. [Beta Corporation International, Albuquerque, NM (United States); Baca, R.G. [Southwest Research Inst., San Antonio, TX (United States). Center for Nuclear Waste Regulatory Analyses
Scenarios for a Clean Energy Future Prepared by the Interlaboratory Working Group on Energy-Efficient and Clean Energy
This report, Scenarios for a Clean Energy Future, was commissioned by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office significant net economic impacts. Widespread use of these technologies would do much to cut U.S. greenhouseScenarios for a Clean Energy Future Prepared by the Interlaboratory Working Group on Energy
Landscape futures analysis: Assessing the impacts of environmental targets under alternative spatial policy options and future scenarios
Environmental targets are often used in planning for sustainable agricultural landscapes but their impacts are rarely known. In this paper we introduce landscape futures analysis as a method which combines linear programming optimisation with scenario ... Keywords: Futures analysis, GIS, Integrated assessment, Landscape planning, Optimisation, Regional, Scenarios
Brett A. Bryan; Neville D. Crossman; Darran King; Wayne S. Meyer
Site-specific analysis of geothermal development-data files of prospective sites. Vol. III
Development scenarios for 37 hydrothermal and geopressured prospects in the United States were analyzed. This third of three volumes presents site-specific data and sample development schedules for the first plant on line at each of the 37 prospects.
Williams, F.; Cohen, A.; Pfundstein, R.; Pond, S.
Economic Development from Gigawatt-Scale Wind Deployment in Wyoming (Presentation)
This presentation provides an overview of economic development in Wyoming from gigawatt-scale wind development and includes a discussion of project context, definitions and caveats, a deployment scenario, modeling inputs, results, and conclusions.
Lantz, E.
Transportation Energy Futures Series: Freight Transportation Modal Shares: Scenarios for a Low-Carbon Future
Freight Transportation Modal Freight Transportation Modal Shares: Scenarios for a Low-Carbon Future TRANSPORTATION ENERGY FUTURES SERIES: Freight Transportation Modal Shares: Scenarios for a Low-Carbon Future A Study Sponsored by U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy March 2013 Prepared by CAMBRIDGE SYSTEMATICS Cambridge, MA 02140 under subcontract DGJ-1-11857-01 Technical monitoring performed by NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY Golden, Colorado 80401-3305 managed by Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC for the U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY Under contract DC-A36-08GO28308 This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States Government. Neither the United States Government nor any agency thereof, nor any of their
Evaluating Renewable Portfolio Standards and Carbon Cap Scenarios in the U.S. Electric Sector
258 258 May 2010 Evaluating Renewable Portfolio Standards and Carbon Cap Scenarios in the U.S. Electric Sector Lori Bird, Caroline Chapman, Jeff Logan, Jenny Sumner, and Walter Short National Renewable Energy Laboratory 1617 Cole Boulevard, Golden, Colorado 80401-3393 303-275-3000 * www.nrel.gov NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC Contract No. DE-AC36-08-GO28308 Technical Report NREL/TP-6A2-48258 May 2010 Evaluating Renewable Portfolio Standards and Carbon Cap Scenarios in the U.S. Electric Sector Lori Bird, Caroline Chapman, Jeff Logan, Jenny Sumner, and Walter Short Prepared under Task No. SAO9.2038 NOTICE
Sensitivity studies for r-process nucleosynthesis in three astrophysical scenarios
In rapid neutron capture, or r-process, nucleosynthesis, heavy elements are built up via a sequence of neutron captures and beta decays that involves thousands of nuclei far from stability. Though we understand the basics of how the r-process proceeds, its astrophysical site is still not conclusively known. The nuclear network simulations we use to test potential astrophysical scenarios require nuclear physics data (masses, beta decay lifetimes, neutron capture rates, fission probabilities) for all of the nuclei on the neutron-rich side of the nuclear chart, from the valley of stability to the neutron drip line. Here we discuss recent sensitivity studies that aim to determine which individual pieces of nuclear data are the most crucial for r-process calculations. We consider three types of astrophysical scenarios: a traditional hot r-process, a cold r-process in which the temperature and density drop rapidly, and a neutron star merger trajectory.
R. Surman; M. Mumpower; J. Cass; I. Bentley; A. Aprahamian; G. C. McLaughlin
Energy Policy 29 (2001) 1179�1196 Scenarios for a clean energy future $
This paper summarizes the results of a studyFScenarios for a Clean Energy FutureFthat assess how energy-efficient and clean energy technologies can address key energy and environmental challenges facing the US. A particular focus of this study is the energy,environmental,and economic impacts of different public policies and programs. Hundreds of technologies and approximately 50 policies are analyzed. The study concludes that policies exist that can significantly reduce oil dependence,air pollution,carbon emissions,and inefficiencies in energy production and end-use systems at essentially no net cost to the US economy. The most advanced scenario finds that by the year 2010,the US could bring its carbon dioxide emissions three-quarters of the way back to 1990 levels. The study also concludes that over time energy bill savings in these scenarios can pay for the
Marilyn A. Brown A; Mark D. Levine B; Walter Short C; Jonathan G. Koomey D
Analysis of Concentrating Solar Power with Thermal Energy Storage in a California 33% Renewable Scenario
Analysis of Concentrating Analysis of Concentrating Solar Power with Thermal Energy Storage in a California 33% Renewable Scenario Paul Denholm, Yih-Huei Wan, Marissa Hummon, and Mark Mehos Technical Report NREL/TP-6A20-58186 March 2013 NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC. National Renewable Energy Laboratory 15013 Denver West Parkway Golden, Colorado 80401 303-275-3000 * www.nrel.gov Contract No. DE-AC36-08GO28308 An Analysis of Concentrating Solar Power with Thermal Energy Storage in a California 33% Renewable Scenario Paul Denholm, Yih-Huei Wan, Marissa Hummon, and Mark Mehos Prepared under Task No. CP08.8301
Techno-Economic Analysis of Biochemical Scenarios for Production of Cellulosic Ethanol
8 8 June 2010 Techno-Economic Analysis of Biochemical Scenarios for Production of Cellulosic Ethanol F. Kabir Kazi, J. Fortman, and R. Anex Iowa State University G. Kothandaraman ConocoPhillips Company D. Hsu, A. Aden, and A. Dutta National Renewable Energy Laboratory National Renewable Energy Laboratory 1617 Cole Boulevard, Golden, Colorado 80401-3393 303-275-3000 * www.nrel.gov NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC Contract No. DE-AC36-08-GO28308 Technical Report NREL/TP-6A2-46588 June 2010 Techno-Economic Analysis of Biochemical Scenarios for Production of Cellulosic Ethanol F. Kabir Kazi, J. Fortman, and R. Anex
Thermodynamic analysis of spent pyrochemical salts in the stored condition and in viable accident scenarios
This study involves examining ``spent`` electrorefining (ER) salts in the form present after usage (as stored), and then after exposure to water in a proposed accident scenario. Additionally, the equilibrium composition of the salt after extended exposure to air was also calculated by computer modeling and those results are also presented herein. It should be noted that these salts are extremely similar to spent MSE salts from the Rocky Flats MSE campaigns using NaCl-KCl- MgCl{sub 2}.
Axler, K.M.
Is the Interacting Dark Matter Scenario an Alternative to Dark Energy ?
We study the global dynamics of the universe within the framework of the Interacting Dark Matter (IDM) scenario. Assuming that the dark matter obeys the collisional Boltzmann equation, we can derive analytical solutions of the global density evolution, which can accommodate an accelerated expansion, equivalent to either the {\\em quintessence} or the standard $\\Lambda$ models. We also find realistic solutions in which the present time is located after the inflection point.
Basilakos, S
Inflationary scenario in the supersymmetric economical 3-3-1 model
We construct the supersymmetric economical 3-3-1 model which contains inflationary scenario and avoids the monopole puzzle. Based on the spontaneous symmetry breaking pattern (with three steps), the F-term inflation is derived. The slow-roll parameters element of and {eta} are calculated. By imposing as experimental five-year WMAP data on the spectral index n, we have derived a constraint on the number of e-folding N{sub Q} to be in the range from 25 to 50. The scenario for large-scale structure formation implied by the model is a mixed scenario for inflation and cosmic string, and the contribution to the CMBR temperature anisotropy depends on the ratio M{sub X}/M{sub Pl}. From the COBE data, we have obtained the constraint on the M{sub X} to be M{sub X} element of [1.22 x 10{sup 16}, 0.98 x 10{sup 17}] GeV. The upper value M{sub X} {approx_equal} 10{sup 17} GeV is a result of the analysis in which the inflationary contribution to the temperature fluctuations measured by the COBE is 90%. The coupling {alpha} varies in the range: 10{sup -7}-10{sup -1}. This value is not so small, and it is a common characteristics of the supersymmetric unified models with the inflationary scenario. The spectral index n is a little bit smaller than 0.98. The SUGRA corrections are slightly different from the previous consideration. When {xi} << 1 and {alpha} lies in the above range, the spectral index gets the value consistent with the experimental five-year WMAP data. Comparing with string theory, one gets {xi} < 10{sup -8}. Numerical analysis shows that {alpha} {approx} 10{sup -6}. To get inflation contribution to the CMBR temperature anisotropy {approx}90%, the mass scale M{sub X} < 3.5 x 10{sup 14} GeV.
Huong, D. T., E-mail: firstname.lastname@example.com; Long, H. N., E-mail: email@example.com [Institute of Physics (Viet Nam)
Scenario Driven Data Modelling: A Method for Integrating Diverse Sources of Data and Data Streams
Background Biology is rapidly becoming a data intensive, data-driven science. It is essential that data is represented and connected in ways that best represent its full conceptual content and allows both automated integration and data driven decision-making. Recent advancements in distributed multi-relational directed graphs, implemented in the form of the Semantic Web make it possible to deal with complicated heterogeneous data in new and interesting ways. Results This paper presents a new approach, scenario driven data modelling (SDDM), that integrates multi-relational directed graphs with data streams. SDDM can be applied to virtually any data integration challenge with widely divergent types of data and data streams. In this work, we explored integrating genetics data with reports from traditional media. SDDM was applied to the New Delhi metallo-beta-lactamase gene (NDM-1), an emerging global health threat. The SDDM process constructed a scenario, created a RDF multi-relational directed graph that linked diverse types of data to the Semantic Web, implemented RDF conversion tools (RDFizers) to bring content into the Sematic Web, identified data streams and analytical routines to analyse those streams, and identified user requirements and graph traversals to meet end-user requirements. Conclusions We provided an example where SDDM was applied to a complex data integration challenge. The process created a model of the emerging NDM-1 health threat, identified and filled gaps in that model, and constructed reliable software that monitored data streams based on the scenario derived multi-relational directed graph. The SDDM process significantly reduced the software requirements phase by letting the scenario and resulting multi-relational directed graph define what is possible and then set the scope of the user requirements. Approaches like SDDM will be critical to the future of data intensive, data-driven science because they automate the process of converting massive data streams into usable knowledge.
Griffith, Shelton D [ORNL; Quest, Daniel J [ORNL; Brettin, Thomas S [ORNL; Cottingham, Robert W [ORNL
CO2 Reduction through Optimization of Steam Network in Petroleum Refineries: Evaluation of New Scenario
Steam network of petroleum refinery is energy intensive, and consequently contribute significantly to the greenhouse gases emissions. A simple model for the estimation of CO2 emissions associated with operation of steam network as encountered in refineries is introduced. In conjunction with a shortcut model this model has been used to calculate of the steam network of an existing refinery aiming at minimization total annualized cost with considering emissions. In this paper, the case study is steam network of southern Tehran refinery. Simulation of this case has been performed in STAR software that licensed by energy system laboratory at K.N. Toosi University of Technology. Mathematical linear programming method has been applied to optimization of steam network. In addition, the short cut model of CO2 production has been provided for evaluation of steam network with considering CO2 production taxes and other economic effects in total annualized cost. Meanwhile, in this research, new scenario has been defined and evaluated. Results shows new scenario have 45 % less TAOC rather than base scenario in optimal condition.
Manesh, M. H. K; Khodaie, H.; Amidpour, M.
Naturalness and stability of the generalized Chaplygin gas in the seesaw cosmon scenario
The seesaw mechanism is conceived on the basis that a mass scale, $\\xi$, and a dimensionless scale, $s$, can be fine-tuned in order to control the dynamics of active and sterile neutrinos through cosmon-type equations of motion: the seesaw cosmon equations. This allows for sterile neutrinos to be a dark matter candidate. In this scenario, the dynamical masses and energy densities of active and sterile neutrinos can be consistently embedded into the generalized Chaplygin gas (GCG), the unified dark sector model. In addition, dark matter adiabatically coupled to dark energy allows for a natural decoupling of the (active) mass varying neutrino (MaVaN) component from the dark sector. Thus MaVaN's turn into a secondary effect. Through the scale parameters, $\\xi$ and $s$, the proposed scenario allows for a convergence among three distinct frameworks: the cosmon scenario, the seesaw mechanism for mass generation and the GCG model. It is found that the equation of state of the perturbations is the very one of the GCG background cosmology so that all the results from this approach are maintained, being smoothly modified by active neutrinos. Constrained by the seesaw relations, it is shown that the mass varying mechanism is responsible for the stability against linear perturbations and is indirectly related to the late time cosmological acceleration.
Alex E. Bernardini; O. Bertolami
The Importance of High Temporal Resolution in Modeling Renewable Energy Penetration Scenarios
Traditionally, modeling investment and dispatch problems in electricity economics has been limited by computation power. Due to this limitation, simplifications are applied. One common practice, for example, is to reduce the temporal resolution of the dispatch by clustering similar load levels. The increase of intermittent electricity from renewable energy sources (RES-E) changes the validity of this assumption. RES-E already cover a certain amount of the total demand. This leaves an increasingly volatile residual demand to be matched by the conventional power market. This paper quantifies differences in investment decisions by applying three different time-resolution residual load patterns in an investment and dispatch power system model. The model optimizes investment decisions in five year steps between today and 2030 with residual load levels for 8760, 288 and 16 time slices per year. The market under consideration is the four zone ERCOT market in Texas. The results show that investment decisions significantly differ across the three scenarios. In particular, investments into base-load technologies are substantially reduced in the high resolution scenario (8760 residual load levels) relative to the scenarios with lower temporal resolution. Additionally, the amount of RES-E curtailment and the market value of RES-E exhibit noteworthy differences.
Nicolosi, Marco; Mills, Andrew D; Wiser, Ryan H
This analysis evaluates CSP with TES in a scenario where California derives 33% of its electricity from renewable energy sources. It uses a commercial grid simulation tool to examine the avoided operational and capacity costs associated with CSP and compares this value to PV and a baseload generation with constant output. Overall, the analysis demonstrates several properties of dispatchable CSP, including the flexibility to generate during periods of high value and avoid generation during periods of lower value. Of note in this analysis is the fact that significant amount of operational value is derived from the provision of reserves in the case where CSP is allowed to provide these services. This analysis also indicates that the 'optimal' configuration of CSP could vary as a function of renewable penetration, and each configuration will need to be evaluated in terms of its ability to provide dispatchable energy, reserves, and firm capacity. The model can be used to investigate additional scenarios involving alternative technology options and generation mixes, applying these scenarios within California or in other regions of interest.
Denholm, P.; Wan, Y. H.; Hummon, M.; Mehos, M.
Life cycle assessment of four municipal solid waste management scenarios in China
A life cycle assessment was carried out to estimate the environmental impact of municipal solid waste. Four scenarios mostly used in China were compared to assess the influence of various technologies on environment: (1) landfill, (2) incineration, (3) composting plus landfill, and (4) composting plus incineration. In all scenarios, the technologies significantly contribute to global warming and increase the adverse impact of non-carcinogens on the environment. The technologies played only a small role in the impact of carcinogens, respiratory inorganics, terrestrial ecotoxicity, and non-renewable energy. Similarly, the influence of the technologies on the way other elements affect the environment was ignorable. Specifically, the direct emissions from the operation processes involved played an important role in most scenarios except for incineration, while potential impact generated from transport, infrastructure and energy consumption were quite small. In addition, in the global warming category, highest potential impact was observed in landfill because of the direct methane gas emissions. Electricity recovery from methane gas was the key factor for reducing the potential impact of global warming. Therefore, increasing the use of methane gas to recover electricity is highly recommended to reduce the adverse impact of landfills on the environment.
Hong Jinglan, E-mail: email@example.com [School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Shandong University, Jinan 250100 (China); Li Xiangzhi [Department of Pathology, University of Michigan, 1301 Catherine, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 (United States); Zhaojie Cui [School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Shandong University, Jinan 250100 (China)
The connections among greenhouse-gas emissions scenarios, global warming, and frequencies of hurricanes or tropical cyclones are among the least understood in climate science but among the most fiercely debated in the context of adaptation decisions or mitigation policies. Here we show that a knowledge discovery strategy, which leverages observations and climate model simulations, offers the promise of developing credible projections of tropical cyclones based on sea surface temperatures (SST) in a warming environment. While this study motivates the development of new methodologies in statistics and data mining, the ability to solve challenging climate science problems with innovative combinations of traditional and state-of-the-art methods is demonstrated. Here we develop new insights, albeit in a proof-of-concept sense, on the relationship between sea surface temperatures and hurricane frequencies, and generate the most likely projections with uncertainty bounds for storm counts in the 21st-century warming environment based in turn on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Our preliminary insights point to the benefits that can be achieved for climate science and impacts analysis, as well as adaptation and mitigation policies, by a solution strategy that remains tailored to the climate domain and complements physics-based climate model simulations with a combination of existing and new computational and data science approaches.
Race, Caitlin [University of Minnesota; Steinbach, Michael [University of Minnesota; Ganguly, Auroop R [ORNL; Semazzi, Fred [North Carolina State University; Kumar, Vipin [University of Minnesota
High q_min Steady State Scenario Development Using Off-Axis Neutral Beam Injection on DIII-D
Bull. Am. Phys. Soc. 56, 97 (2011)53rd American Physical Society Annual Meeting of Division of Plasma Physics Salt Lake City Utah, US, 2011999618967
Holcomb, C.T.
Global Nutrient Export from WaterSheds 2 (NEWS 2): Model development and implementation
Global NEWS is a global, spatially explicit, multi-element and multi-form model of nutrient exports by rivers. Here we present NEWS 2, the new version of Global NEWS developed as part of a Millennium Ecosystem Assessment scenario implementation from ... Keywords: Basin models, Coastal inputs, Global NEWS, Global river exports, Millennium ecosystem assessment scenarios, Nutrients
Emilio Mayorga; Sybil P. Seitzinger; John A. Harrison; Egon Dumont; Arthur H. W. Beusen; A. F. Bouwman; Balazs M. Fekete; Carolien Kroeze; Gerard Van Drecht
Regional climate change scenarios over the United States produced with a nested regional climate model
Two continuous 31/2-year-long climate simulation over the continental United States are discussed, one of present-day conditions and one for conditions under double carbon dioxide concentration, conducted with a limited area model (LAM) nested in a general circulation model (GCM). The models used are a version of the NCAR Community Climate Model (CCM) at rhomboidal 15 spectral resolution and the climate version of the NCAR/Penn State mesoscale model (MM4) at 60-km gridpoint spacing. For present-day conditions the model temperatures are within 1[degrees]-2[degrees]C of observations except over the Great Lakes region, where temperature is overpredicted. The CCM overpredicts precipitation throughout the continental United States (overall by about 60%) and especially over the West (by up to 300%). The nested MM4 overpredicts precipitation over the West but underpredicts it over the eastern United States. In addition, it produces a large amount of topographically and lake-induced sub-GCM grid-scale detail that compares well with available high-resolution climate data. Overall, the nested MM4 reproduces observed spatial and seasonal precipitation patterns better than the driving CCM. Doubled carbon dioxide-induced temperature change scenarios produced by the two models generally differ by less than several tenths of a degree except over the Great Lakes region where, because of the presence of the lakes in the nested model, the two model scenarios differ by more than one degree. Conversely, precipitation change scenarios from the two model simulations can locally differ in magnitude, sign, spatial, and seasonal detail. These differences are associated with topographical features in the MM4, such as the presence of steep coastal ranges in the western United States. This work illustrates the feasibility of the use of the nested modeling technique for long-term regional climate simulation. 43 refs., 19 figs., 6 tabs.
Giorgi, F.; Brodeur, C.S.; Bates, G.T. (National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States))
Analysis of Two Biomass Gasification/Fuel Cell Scenarios for Small-Scale Power Generation
Two scenarios were examined for small-scale electricity production from biomass using a gasifier/fuel cell system. In one case, a stand-alone BCL/FERC gasifier is used to produce synthesis gas that is reformed and distributed through a pipeline network to individual phosphoric acid fuel cells. In the second design, the gasifier is integrated with a molten carbonate fuel cell stack and a steam bottoming cycle. In both cases, the gasifiers are fed the same amount of material, with the integrated system producing 4 MW of electricity, and the stand-alone design generating 2 MW of electricity.
Amos, W. A.
Refined scenario of standard Big Bang nucleosynthesis allowing for nonthermal nuclear reactions in the primordial plasma
The standard scenario of big bang nucleosynthesis (BBN) is generalized to take into account nonthermal nuclear reactions in the primordial plasma. These reactions are naturally triggered in the BBN epoch by fast particles generated in various exoergic processes. It is found that, although such particles can appreciably enhance the rates of some individual reactions, their influence on the whole process of element production is not significant. The nonthermal corrections to element abundances are obtained to be 0.1% ({sup 3}H), -0.03% ({sup 7}Li), and 0.34 %-0.63% (CNO group).
Voronchev, Victor T.; Nakao, Yasuyuki; Nakamura, Makoto; Tsukida, Kazuki [Institute of Nuclear Physics, Moscow State University, Moscow 119991 (Russian Federation); Department of Applied Quantum Physics and Nuclear Engineering, Kyushu University, Motooka, Fukuoka 819-0395 (Japan); Division of Advanced Plasma Research, Japan Atomic Energy Agency, 2-166 Oaza-Obuchi-Aza-Omotedate, Rokkasho, Kamikita, Aomori 039-3212 (Japan); Department of Applied Quantum Physics and Nuclear Engineering, Kyushu University, Motooka, Fukuoka 819-0395 (Japan)
Ground State of the Hydrogen Atom via Dirac Equation in a Minimal Length Scenario
In this work we calculate the correction to the ground state energy of the hydrogen atom due to contributions arising from the presence of a minimal length. The minimal length scenario is introduced by means of modifying the Dirac equation through a deformed Heisenberg algebra (kempf algebra). With the introduction of the Coulomb potential in the new Dirac energy operator, we calculate the energy shift of the ground state of the hydrogen atom in first order of the parameter related to the minimal length via perturbation theory.
T. L. Antonacci Oakes; R. O. Francisco; J. C. Fabris; J. A. Nogueira
UMLtrust: towards developing trust-aware software
As users in software systems depend on each other for achieving goals, performing tasks, and utilizing resources, the trust relationships in the systems need to be considered to identify the opportunities and vulnerabilities these relationships bring. ... Keywords: software development life cycle (SDLC), trust scenario, unified modeling language (UML)
Mohammad Gias Uddin; Mohammad Zulkernine
Japan's Long-term Energy Demand and Supply Scenario to 2050 - Estimation for the Potential of Massive CO2 Mitigation
the share of non-fossil energy sources in total primaryF Y 2050. As a result, non-fossil energy sources (nuclear,the reference scenario, non-fossil energy sources' share of
Komiyama, Ryoichi
Ensemble-Based Exigent Analysis. Part I: Estimating Worst-Case Weather-Related Forecast Damage Scenarios
Exigent analysis supplements an ensemble forecast of weather-related damage with a map of the worst-case scenario (WCS), a multivariate confidence bound of the damage. For multivariate Gaussian ensembles, ensemble-based exigent analysis uses a ...
Daniel Gombos; Ross N. Hoffman
Regional Dynamic and Steric Sea Level Change in Response to the IPCC-A1B Scenario
This paper analyzes regional sea level changes in a climate change simulation using the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI) coupled atmosphere�ocean general circulation model ECHAM5/MPI-OM. The climate change scenario builds on observed ...
Felix W. Landerer; Johann H. Jungclaus; Jochem Marotzke
The Boy Who Cried Wolf Revisited: The Impact of False Alarm Intolerance on Cost�Loss Scenarios
Meteorologists often interpret the value of a probabilistic weather forecast using the binary cost�loss scenario. The socioeconomic benefit of such a forecast will depend on the compliance rate of users and, hence, the number of warnings that are ...
M. S. Roulston; L. A. Smith
Gravitino thermal production revisited and a new cosmological scenario of gauge mediation
We present a new scenario of gravitino dark matter which is compatible with the thermal leptogenesis. We confirm by an explicit calculation in supergravity that the relic abundance of thermally produced gravitino becomes insensitive to the reheating temperature once the temperature of the Universe exceeds the mass scale of the messenger fields. In such a situation, the correct baryon to dark matter ratio can be obtained by thermal leptogenesis when the reheating temperature after inflation is high enough. We demonstrate in a concrete model of gauge mediation that the correct abundance of gravitino and baryon asymmetry can be reproduced by considering the late-time entropy production from the decay of the SUSY-breaking pseudo-moduli field. The scenario is realized when the gravitino mass is 100 MeV lesssim m_{3/2} lesssim 1 GeV, and the messenger mass scale is 10^6 GeV lesssim M_{mess} lesssim 10^9 GeV.
Hiraku Fukushima; Ryuichiro Kitano
This paper reports on the potential impact of demand response (DR) strategies in commercial buildings in California based on the Demand Response Quick Assessment Tool (DRQAT), which uses EnergyPlus simulation prototypes for office and retail buildings. The study describes the potential impact of building size, thermal mass, climate, and DR strategies on demand savings in commercial buildings. Sensitivity analyses are performed to evaluate how these factors influence the demand shift and shed during the peak period. The whole-building peak demand of a commercial building with high thermal mass in a hot climate zone can be reduced by 30percent using an optimized demand response strategy. Results are summarized for various simulation scenarios designed to help owners and managers understand the potential savings for demand response deployment. Simulated demand savings under various scenarios were compared to field-measured data in numerous climate zones, allowing calibration of the prototype models. The simulation results are compared to the peak demand data from the Commercial End-Use Survey for commercial buildings in California. On the economic side, a set of electricity rates are used to evaluate the impact of the DR strategies on economic savings for different thermal mass and climate conditions. Our comparison of recent simulation to field test results provides an understanding of the DR potential in commercial buildings.
Yin, Rongxin; Kiliccote, Sila; Piette, Mary Ann; Parrish, Kristen
Independent Analysis of Seismicity and Rock fall Scenarios for the Yucca Mountain Repository
Yucca Mountain is located in the somewhat seismically active Basin and Range province. Future seismic activity is identified by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the US National Academy of Sciences as a key scenario for safety assessment of a proposed repository at Yucca Mountain. As part of its on-going program of conducting independent analyses of scientific and technical issues that could be important to the licensing of the Yucca Mountain repository, EPRI has conducted an analysis of the combined scenarios of seismic activity and stability of emplacement drifts with respect to the long-term repository safety. In this paper we present the results of 3D finite element simulations of both static and dynamic loading of a degraded waste package. For the static case, the expected maximum static load is determined by utilizing relationships between cave height and the bulking factor. A static load representing 30 meters of broken rock was simulated using the finite element model. For the dynamic case, block size and velocity data from the most recent Drift Degradation AMR are used. Based on this, a rock block with a volume of 3.11 m{sup 3} and with an impact velocity of 4.81 m/s was simulated using the finite element model. In both cases, the results indicate that the waste package remains intact. (authors)
Apted, M.J. [Monitor Scientific, 3900 S. Wadsworth Blvd., Denver, CO 80235 (United States); Kemeny, J.M. [University of Arizona, Dept. Mining and Geological Engineering, Tucson, AZ 85721 (United States); Martin, C.D. [University of Alberta, Dept. Civil and Environmental Engineering, Edmonton, AB T6G 2W2 (Canada); James, R.J. [Anatech Corp., 5435 Oberlin Dr., San Diego, CA 92121 (United States)
While China's 11th Five Year Plan called for a reduction of energy intensity by 2010, whether and how the energy consumption trend can be changed in a short time has been hotly debated. This research intends to evaluate the impact of a variety of scenarios of GDP growth, energy elasticity and energy efficiency improvement on energy consumption in commercial buildings in China using a detailed China End-use Energy Model. China's official energy statistics have limited information on energy demand by end use. This is a particularly pertinent issue for building energy consumption. The authors have applied reasoned judgments, based on experience of working on Chinese efficiency standards and energy related programs, to present a realistic interpretation of the current energy data. The bottom-up approach allows detailed consideration of end use intensity, equipment efficiency, etc., thus facilitating assessment of potential impacts of specific policy and technology changes on building energy use. The results suggest that: (1) commercial energy consumption in China's current statistics is underestimated by about 44%, and the fuel mix is misleading; (2) energy efficiency improvements will not be sufficient to offset the strong increase in end-use penetration and intensity in commercial buildings; (3) energy intensity (particularly electricity) in commercial buildings will increase; (4) different GDP growth and elasticity scenarios could lead to a wide range of floor area growth trajectories , and therefore, significantly impact energy consumption in commercial buildings.
Zhou, Nan; Lin, Jiang
Modeling Sensitivities to the 20% Wind Scenario Report with the WinDS Model
In May 2008, DOE published '20% Wind Energy by 2030', a report which describes the costs and benefits of producing 20% of the nation's projected electricity demand in 2030 from wind technology. The total electricity system cost resulting from this scenario was modestly higher than a scenario in which no additional wind was installed after 2006. NREL's Wind Deployment System (WinDS) model was used to support this analysis. With its 358 regions, explicit treatment of transmission expansion, onshore siting considerations, shallow- and deep-water wind resources, 2030 outlook, explicit financing assumptions, endogenous learning, and stochastic treatment of wind resource variability, WinDS is unique in the level of detail it can bring to this analysis. For the 20% Wind Energy by 2030 analysis, the group chose various model structures (such as the ability to wheel power within an interconnect), and the wind industry agreed on a variety of model inputs (such as the cost of transmission or new wind turbines). For this paper, the analysis examined the sensitivity of the results to variations in those input values and model structure choices. These included wind cost and performance improvements over time, seasonal/diurnal wind resource variations, transmission access and costs, siting costs, conventional fuel cost trajectories, and conventional capital costs.
Blair, N.; Hand, M.; Short, W.; Sullivan, P.
Environmental performance of construction waste: Comparing three scenarios from a case study in Catalonia, Spain
The main objective of this paper is to evaluate environmental impacts of construction wastes in terms of the LIFE 98 ENV/E/351 project. Construction wastes are classified in accordance with the Life Program Environment Directive of the European Commission. Three different scenarios to current waste management from a case study in Catalonia (Spain) have been compared: landfilling, recycling and incineration, and these scenarios were evaluated by means of Life Cycle Assessment. The recommendations of the Catalan Waste Catalogue and the European Waste Catalogue have been taken into account. Also, the influence of transport has been evaluated. Results show that in terms of the Global Warming Potential, the most environmentally friendly treatment was recycling, followed by incineration and lastly landfilling. According to the influence of treatment plants location on the GWP indicator, we observe that incineration and recycling of construction wastes are better than landfilling, even for long distances from the building site to the plants. This is true for most wastes except for the stony types, than should be recycled close to the building site. In summary, data from construction waste of a Catalan case study was evaluated using the well established method of LCA to determine the environmental impacts.
Ortiz, O., E-mail: firstname.lastname@example.com [Rovira i Virgili University, Environmental Analysis and Management Group (AGA), Chemical Engineering Department, Av. Paisos Catalans 26, 43007, Tarragona (Spain); University of Pamplona, Department of Industrial Engineering, Km 1 Via Bucaramanga, Pamplona, N de S (Colombia); Pasqualino, J.C.; Castells, F. [Rovira i Virgili University, Environmental Analysis and Management Group (AGA), Chemical Engineering Department, Av. Paisos Catalans 26, 43007, Tarragona (Spain)
Harmonization of Land-Use Scenarios for the Period 1500-2100: 600 Years of Global Gridded Annual Land-Use Transitions, Wood Harvest, and Resulting Secondary Lands
In preparation for the fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the international community is developing new advanced Earth System Models (ESM) to assess the combined effects of human activities (e.g. land use and fossil fuel emissions) on the carbon-climate system. In addition, four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios of the future (2005-2100) are being provided by four Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) teams to be used as input to the ESMs for future carbon-climate projections (Moss et al., 2010). The diversity of approaches and requirements among IAMs and ESMs for tracking land-use change, along with the dependence of model projections on land-use history, presents a challenge for effectively passing data between these communities and for smoothly transitioning from the historical estimates to future projections. Here, a harmonized set of land-use scenarios are presented that smoothly connects historical reconstructions of land use with future projections, in the format required by ESMs.
Hurtt, George; Chini, Louise Parsons; Frolking, Steve; Betts, Richard; Feddema, Johannes; Fischer, Gavin M.; Fisk, J.P.; Hibbard, Kathleen A.; Houghton, R. A.; Janetos, Anthony C.; Jones, C.; Kindermann, G.; Kinoshita, Tsuguki; Goldeweijk, Kees K.; Riahi, Keywan; Shevliakova, Elena; Smith, Steven J.; Stehfest, Eike; Thomson, Allison M.; Thornton, P.; Van Vuuren, Detlef; Wang, Y.
Cross-impacts analysis development and energy policy analysis applications
Purpose of this report is to describe the cross-impact analysis process and microcomputer software developed for the Office of Policy, Planning, and Analysis (PPA) of DOE. First introduced in 1968, cross-impact analysis is a technique that produces scenarios of future conditions and possibilities. Cross-impact analysis has several unique attributes that make it a tool worth examining, especially in the current climate when the outlook for the economy and several of the key energy markets is uncertain. Cross-impact analysis complements the econometric, engineering, systems dynamics, or trend approaches already in use at DOE. Cross-impact analysis produces self-consistent scenarios in the broadest sense and can include interaction between the economy, technology, society and the environment. Energy policy analyses that couple broad scenarios of the future with detailed forecasting can produce more powerful results than scenario analysis or forecasts can produce alone.
Roop, J.M.; Scheer, R.M.; Stacey, G.S.
Comparison of risk-dominant scenario assumptions for several TRU waste facilities in the DOE complex
In order to gain a risk management perspective, the DOE Rocky Flats Field Office (RFFO) initiated a survey of other DOE sites regarding risks from potential accidents associated with transuranic (TRU) storage and/or processing facilities. Recently-approved authorization basis documents at the Rocky Flats Environmental Technology Site (RFETS) have been based on the DOE Standard 3011 risk assessment methodology with three qualitative estimates of frequency of occurrence and quantitative estimates of radiological consequences to the collocated worker and the public binned into three severity levels. Risk Class 1 and 2 events after application of controls to prevent or mitigate the accident are designated as risk-dominant scenarios. Accident Evaluation Guidelines for selection of Technical Safety Requirements (TSRs) are based on the frequency and consequence bin assignments to identify controls that can be credited to reduce risk to Risk Class 3 or 4, or that are credited for Risk Class 1 and 2 scenarios that cannot be further reduced. This methodology resulted in several risk-dominant scenarios for either the collocated worker or the public that warranted consideration on whether additional controls should be implemented. RFFO requested the survey because of these high estimates of risks that are primarily due to design characteristics of RFETS TRU waste facilities (i.e., Butler-type buildings without a ventilation and filtration system, and a relatively short distance to the Site boundary). Accident analysis methodologies and key assumptions are being compared for the DOE sites responding to the survey. This includes type of accidents that are risk dominant (e.g., drum explosion, material handling breach, fires, natural phenomena, external events, etc.), source term evaluation (e.g., radionuclide material-at-risk, chemical and physical form, damage ratio, airborne release fraction, respirable fraction, leakpath factors), dispersion analysis (e.g., meteorological assumptions, distance to receptors, plume meander, deposition, and other factors affecting the calculated {chi}/Q), dose assessments (specific activities, inhalation dose conversion factors, breathing rates), designated frequency of occurrence, and risk assignment per the DOE Standard 3011 methodology. Information from the sites is being recorded on a spreadsheet to facilitate comparisons. The first response from Westinghouse Safety Management Solutions for the Savannah River Site (SRS) also provided a detailed analysis of the major differences in methods and assumptions between RFETS and SRS, which forms much of the basis for this paper. Other sites responding to the survey include the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL), Hanford, and the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL).
Foppe, T.L. [Foppe and Associates, Inc., Golden, CO (United States); Marx, D.R. [Westinghouse Safety Management Solutions, Inc., Aiken, SC (United States)
Regional operations research program for development of geothermal energy in the southwest United States. Final technical report, June 1977-August 1978
The efforts by the Core and State Teams in data acquisition, electric and non-electric economic studies, development of computer support functions and operations, and preparation of geothermal development scenarios are described. Team reports for the states of Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah are included in the appendices along with a summary of the state scenarios. (MHR)
Marlin, J.M.; Christ, R.; McDevitt, P.; Nowotny, K.; O'Dea, P.; Rao, C.R.; Swanberg, C.
Potential effects of four Flaming Gorge Dam hydropower operational scenarios on the fishes of the Green River, Utah and Colorado
Aerial videography and modeling were used to evaluate the impacts of four hydropower operational scenarios at Flaming Gorge Dam, Utah, on trout and native fishes in the Green River, Utah and Colorado. The four operational scenarios studied were year-round high fluctuations, seasonally adjusted high fluctuations, seasonally adjusted moderate fluctuations, and seasonally adjusted steady flows. Impacts on trout were evaluated by examining differences among scenarios in the areas of inundated substrates that serve as spawning and feeding habitat. All scenarios would provide at least 23 acres per mile of habitat for spawning and food production; seasonally adjusted operations would provide additional areas during periods of sustained high release. Seasonally adjusted high fluctuations would increase inundated areas by 12 to 26% for a short period in winter and spring, but food production and reproduction would not be expected to increase. Seasonally adjusted moderate fluctuations and steady flows would produce similar increases in area, but the longer period of inundation could also result in increased food production and provide additional spawning sites for trout. Impacts on native fishes were assessed by examining daily changes in backwater nursery areas. Compared with year-round high fluctuations, the daily changes in backwater area would decrease by about 47, 89, and 100% under the seasonally adjusted high fluctuation, moderate fluctuation, and steady flow scenarios, respectively. Similarly, daily stage fluctuations during the nursery period would decrease by 72, 89, and 100% under the seasonally adjusted high fluctuation, moderate fluctuation, and steady flow scenarios, respectively. These reductions in daily fluctuations in backwater area and stage would improve conditions in nursery habitats and could in turn improve recruitment and overwinter survival. Introduced fish species could also benefit from the seasonally adjusted operational scenarios.
Hlohowskyj, I.; Hayse, J.W.
A New Scenario for First Life on Earth | Advanced Photon Source
Surface Orbital 'Roughness' in Colossal Magnetoresistive Oxide Surface Orbital 'Roughness' in Colossal Magnetoresistive Oxide Different Roads Toward Quantum Criticality Orbital Reconstruction at a Complex Oxide Interface Logic Tells Us that Appearances May Be Deceptive Detecting a Spin Transition Zone in Earth's Lower Mantle Science Highlights Archives: 2013 | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 2009 | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 2005 | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 2001 | 2000 | 1998 | Subscribe to APS Science Highlights rss feed A New Scenario for First Life on Earth NOVEMBER 27, 2007 Bookmark and Share A colorful microscope image showing that a solution of tiny DNA molecules has formed a liquid-crystal phase. The DNA molecules pair to form DNA double helices, which in turn stack end-to-end to make rod-shaped aggregates that orient parallel to one another. (Credit: Michi Nakata.)
Potential dose distributions at proposed surface radioactvity clearance levels resulting from occupational scenarios.
The purpose of this report is to evaluate the potential dose distribution resulting from surface radioactivity, using occupational radiation exposure scenarios. The surface radioactivity clearance values considered in this analysis may ultimately replace those currently specified in the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) requirements and guidance for radiological protection of workers, the public and the environment. The surface contamination values apply to radioactive contamination deposited on a surface (i.e., not incorporated into the interior of the material). For these calculations, the dose coefficients for intake of radionuclides were taken from ICRP Publication 68 (ICRP 1994), and external exposure dose coefficients were taken from the compact disc (CD) that accompanied Federal Guidance Report (FGR) 13 (Eckerman et al. 1999). The ICRP Publication 68 dose coefficients were based on ICRP Publication 60 (ICRP 1990) and were used specifically for worker dose calculations. The calculated dose in this analysis is the 'effective dose' (ED), rather than the 'effective dose equivalent' (EDE).
Kamboj, S.; Yu, C.; Rabovsky, J. (Environmental Science Division); (USDOE)
This report examines the impact of various renewable portfolio standards (RPS) and cap-and-trade policy options on the U.S. electricity sector, focusing mainly on renewable energy generation. The analysis uses the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model that simulates the least-cost expansion of electricity generation capacity and transmission in the United States to examine the impact of an emissions cap--similar to that proposed in the Waxman-Markey bill (H.R. 2454)--as well as lower and higher cap scenarios. It also examines the effects of combining various RPS targets with the emissions caps. The generation mix, carbon emissions, and electricity price are examined for various policy combinations to simulate the effect of implementing policies simultaneously.
Bird, L.; Chapman, C.; Logan, J.; Sumner, J.; Short, W.
Search for SUSY in the AMSB scenario with the DELPHI detector
The DELPHI experiment at the LEP e+e- collider collected almost 700 pb^-1 at centre-of-mass energies above the Z0 mass pole and up to 208 GeV. Those data were used to search for SUSY in the Anomaly Mediated SUSY Breaking (AMSB) scenario with a flavour independent common sfermion mass parameter. The searches covered several possible signatures experimentally accessible at LEP, with either the neutralino, the sneutrino or the stau being the Lightest Supersymmetric Particle (LSP). They included: the search for nearly mass-degenerate chargino and neutralino, which is a typical feature of AMSB; the search for Standard-Model-like or invisibly decaying Higgs boson; the search for stable staus; the search for cascade decays of SUSY particles resulting in the LSP and a low multiplicity final state containing neutrinos. No evidence of a signal was found, and thus constraints were set in the space of the parameters of the model.
The DELPHI Collaboration; J. Abdallah
Biosimmer: A Virtual Reality Simulator for Training First Responders in a BW Scenario
BioSimMER (Bioterrorism Simulated Medical Emergency Response) is a Virtual Reality-based mission rehearsal and training environment. BioSimMER employs contingency-oriented, multiple-path algorithms and MOESINIOPS focused on real-world operations. BioSimMER is network-based and immerses multiple trainees in a high resolution synthetic environment, including virtual casualties and instruments that they may interact with and manipulate. Trainees are represented as individuals by virtual human Avatars. The simulation consists of several components: virtual casualties dynamically manifest the symptoms of their injuries and respond to the intervention of the trainees. Agent transport analysis is used to simulate casualty exposures and to drive the responses of simulated sensors/detectors. The selected prototype scenario is representative of combined injuries anticipated in BW operations.
Shawver, D.M.; Sobel, A.L.; Stansfield, S.A.
The coincidence problem in the scenario of dark energy interacting with two fluids
A cosmological model of dark energy interacting with dark matter and another general component of the universe is considered. The evolution equations for coincidence parameters r and s, which represent the ratios between the dark energy and the matter and the other cosmic fluid, respectively, are analyzed in terms of the stability of stationary solutions. The obtained general results allow to shed some light on the coincidence problem and in the equations of state of the three interacting fluids, due to the constraints imposes by the stability of the solutions. We found that for an interaction proportional to the sum of the DE density and the third fluid density, the hypothetical fluid must have positive pressure, which leads naturally to a cosmological scenario with radiation, unparticle or even some form of warm DM as the third interacting fluid.
Norman Cruz; Samuel Lepe; Francisco Pena
Alternative Scenarios of Relativistic Heavy-Ion Collisions: I. Baryon Stopping
Simulations of relativistic heavy-ion collisions within the three-fluid model employing a purely hadronic equation of state (EoS) and two versions of the EoS involving deconfinement transition are presented. The latter are an EoS with the first-order phase transition and that with a smooth crossover transition. The model setup is described in detail. The analysis is performed in a wide range of incident energies 2.7 GeV $energy. Results on proton and net-proton rapidity distributions are reported. Comparison with available data indicate certain preference of the crossover EoS. It is found that predictions within deconfinement-transition scenarios exhibit a "peak-dip-peak-dip" irregularity in the incident energy dependence of the form of the net-proton rapidity distributions in central collisions. This irregularity is a signal of deconfinement onset occurring in the hot and dense stage of the nuclear collision.
Multi-path transportation futures study : vehicle characterization and scenario analyses.
Projecting the future role of advanced drivetrains and fuels in the light vehicle market is inherently difficult, given the uncertainty (and likely volatility) of future oil prices, inadequate understanding of likely consumer response to new technologies, the relative infancy of several important new technologies with inevitable future changes in their performance and costs, and the importance - and uncertainty - of future government marketplace interventions (e.g., new regulatory standards or vehicle purchase incentives). This Multi-Path Transportation Futures (MP) Study has attempted to improve our understanding of this future role by examining several scenarios of vehicle costs, fuel prices, government subsidies, and other key factors. These are projections, not forecasts, in that they try to answer a series of 'what if' questions without assigning probabilities to most of the basic assumptions.
Plotkin, S. E.; Singh, M. K.; Energy Systems; TA Engineering; ORNL
Improving Petroleum Displacement Potential of PHEVs Using Enhanced Charging Scenarios: Preprint
5730 5730 May 2009 Improving Petroleum Displacement Potential of PHEVs Using Enhanced Charging Scenarios Preprint T. Markel, K. Smith, and A.A. Pesaran Presented at EVS-24 International Battery, Hybrid and Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle Symposium Stavanger, Norway May 13-16, 2009 NOTICE The submitted manuscript has been offered by an employee of the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC (ASE), a contractor of the US Government under Contract No. DE-AC36-08-GO28308. Accordingly, the US Government and ASE retain a nonexclusive royalty-free license to publish or reproduce the published form of this contribution, or allow others to do so, for US Government purposes. This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States government.
36E 36E Scenario Analysis of Peak Demand Savings for Commercial Buildings with Thermal Mass in California R. Yin, S. Kiliccote, M.A. Piette, K. Parrish Environmental Energy Technologies Division May 2010 Presented at the 2010 ACEEE Summer Study on Energy Efficiency in Buildings, Pacific Grove, CA, August 15-20, 2010, and published in the Proceedings DISCLAIMER This document was prepared as an account of work sponsored by the United States Government. While this document is believed to contain correct information, neither the United States Government nor any agency thereof, nor The Regents of the University of California, nor any of their employees, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information,
Integrated Market Modeling of Hydrogen Transition Scenarios with HyTrans
Integrated Market Modeling of Integrated Market Modeling of Hydrogen Transition Scenarios with HyTrans Paul N. Leiby, David L. Greene and David Bowman Oak Ridge National Laboratory A presentation to the Hydrogen Delivery Analysis Meeting FreedomCAR and Fuels Partnership Delivery, Storage and Hydrogen Pathways Tech Teams May 8-9, 2007 Columbia, MD 2 OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORY U. S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY Drawing from several other DOE models, HyTrans integrates supply and demand in a dynamic non-linear market model to 2050. * H2A - Hydrogen Production - Hydrogen Delivery * PSAT & ASCM - Fuel economy - 2010/2015 cost & performance goals * ORNL Vehicle Choice Model - Fuel availability - Make & model diversity - Price, fuel economy, etc. * Vehicle Manufacturing Cost Estimates (assisted by OEMs)
A Method for Evaluating Fire after Earthquake Scenarios for Single Buildings
DOE/NNSA DOE/NNSA LANS Company Sensitive - unauthorized release or dissemination prohibited U N C L A S S I F I E D A Method for Evaluating Fire After Earthquake Scenarios for Single Buildings Elizabeth J. Kelly and Raymond N. Tell, LANL U.S. Department of Energy Natural Phenomena Hazards Workshop Washington, D.C October 25-26, 2011 LA-UR 11-06032 Operated by Los Alamos National Security, LLC for NNSA U N C L A S S I F I E D Slide 2 Conservative or Beyond? While conservative assumptions may make an analysis easier to defend, overly conservative assumptions can be counterproductive. Operated by Los Alamos National Security, LLC for NNSA U N C L A S S I F I E D Unintended Consequences Associated Press - 10/28/09 "Quake could pose risk to Los Alamos
Impacts of urban transportation mode split on CO{sub 2} emissions in Jinan, China.
As the world's largest developing country, China currently is undergoing rapid urbanization and motorization, which will result in far-reaching impacts on energy and the environment. According to estimates, energy use and carbon emissions in the transportation sector will comprise roughly 30% of total emissions by 2030. Since the late 1990s, transportation-related issues such as energy, consumption, and carbon emissions have become a policy focus in China. To date, most research and policies have centered on vehicle technologies that promote vehicle efficiency and reduced emissions. Limited research exists on the control of greenhouse gases through mode shifts in urban transportation - in particular, through the promotion of public transit. The purpose of this study is to establish a methodology to analyze carbon emissions from the urban transportation sector at the Chinese city level. By using Jinan, the capital of China's Shandong Province, as an example, we have developed an analytical model to simulate energy consumption and carbon emissions based on the number of trips, the transportation mode split, and the trip distance. This model has enabled us to assess the impacts of the transportation mode split on energy consumption and carbon emissions. Furthermore, this paper reviews a set of methods for data collection, estimation, and processing for situations where statistical data are scarce in China. This paper also describes the simulation of three transportation system development scenarios. The results of this study illustrate that if no policy intervention is implemented for the transportation mode split (the business-as-usual (BAU) case), then emissions from Chinese urban transportation systems will quadruple by 2030. However, a dense, mixed land-use pattern, as well as transportation policies that encourage public transportation, would result in the elimination of 1.93 million tons of carbon emissions - approximately 50% of the BAU scenario emissions.
He, D.; Meng, F.; Wang, M.; He, K. (Energy Systems); (Energy Foundation); (Tsinghua Univ.)
MSSM Higgs boson searches at the Tevatron and the LHC: Impact of different benchmark scenarios
The Higgs boson search has shifted from LEP2 to the Tevatron and will subsequently move to the LHC. The current limits from the Tevatron and the prospective sensitivities at the LHC are often interpreted in specific MSSM scenarios. For heavy Higgs boson production and subsequent decay into b{bar b} or {tau}{sup +}{tau}{sup -}, the present Tevatron data allow to set limits in the M{sub A}-tan {beta} plane for small M{sub A} and large tan {beta} values. Similar channels have been explored for the LHC, where the discovery reach extends to higher values of M{sub A} and smaller tan {beta}. Searches for MSSM charged Higgs bosons, produced in top decays or in association with top quarks, have also been investigated at the Tevatron and the LHC. We analyze the current Tevatron limits and prospective LHC sensitivities. We discuss how robust they are with respect to variations of the other MSSM parameters and possible improvements of the theoretical predictions for Higgs boson production and decay. It is shown that the inclusion of supersymmetric radiative corrections to the production cross sections and decay widths leads to important modifications of the present limits on the MSSM parameter space. The impact on the region where only the lightest MSSM Higgs boson can be detected at the LHC is also analyzed. We propose to extend the existing benchmark scenarios by including additional values of the higgsino mass parameter {mu}. This affects only slightly the search channels for a SM-like Higgs boson, while having a major impact on the searches for non-standard MSSM Higgs bosons.
Carena, Marcela S.; /Fermilab; Heinemeyer, S.; /CERN; Wagner, C.E.M.; /Argonne /Chicago U., EFI; Weiglein, G.; /Durham U., IPPP
Event:World Bank Institute-Low Carbon Development Learning Course...
the course discusses the development of reference and low carbon scenarios out to 2030 and beyond, the stakeholders that need to be involved and the data that is required to...
Topical report on release scenario analysis of long-term management of high-level defense waste at the Hanford Site
Potential release scenarios for the defense high-level waste (HLW) on the Hanford Site are presented. Presented in this report are the three components necessary for evaluating the various alternatives under consideration for long-term management of Hanford defense HLW: identification of scenarios and events which might directly or indirectly disrupt radionuclide containment barriers; geotransport calculations of waste migration through the site media; and consequence (dose) analyses based on groundwater and air pathways calculations. The scenarios described in this report provide the necessary parameters for radionuclide transport and consequence analysis. Scenarios are categorized as either bounding or nonbounding. Bounding scenarios consider worst case or what if situations where an actual and significant release of waste material to the environment would happen if the scenario were to occur. Bounding scenarios include both near-term and long-term scenarios. Near-term scenarios are events which occur at 100 years from 1990. Long term scenarios are potential events considered to occur at 1000 and 10,000 years from 1990. Nonbounding scenarios consider events which result in insignificant releases or no release at all to the environment. Three release mechanisms are described in this report: (1) direct exposure of waste to the biosphere by a defined sequence of events (scenario) such as human intrusion by drilling; (2) radionuclides contacting an unconfined aquifer through downward percolation of groundwater or a rising water table; and (3) cataclysmic or explosive release of radionuclides by such mechanisms as meteorite impact, fire and explosion, criticality, or seismic events. Scenarios in this report present ways in which these release mechanisms could occur at a waste management facility. The scenarios are applied to the two in-tank waste management alternatives: in-situ disposal and continued present action.
Wallace, R.W.; Landstrom, D.K.; Blair, S.C.; Howes, B.W.; Robkin, M.A.; Benson, G.L.; Reisenauer, A.E.; Walters, W.H.; Zimmerman, M.G.
Site specific analysis of geothermal development. Volume 1. Summary report
MITRE/Metrek has analyzed development scenarios for 37 hydrothermal and geopressured prospects in the United States to assist DOE's Division of Geothermal Energy in mission-oriented planning of geothermal resource development. A summary of the site-specific analyses is presented with particular emphasis on possible recommendations for the Federal Geothermal Program.
Leigh, J.; Cohen, A.; Jacobsen, W.; Trehan, R.
Analysis of Long-range Clean Energy Investment Scenarios for Eritrea, East Africa
to utilizing excellent wind energy resources as a driver toSubsector Efficiency, (5) Wind Energy Development, and (6)assumed return rate. For wind energy development, we assume
Highway Electrification And Automation Technologies - Regional Impacts Analysis Project: Phase I: Baseline Scenario Data Analysis
Electric Vehicle Developments in the Automobile Industry . . . . . . . . . . . .the automobile industry and its support of electric vehicleindustry in the development and support of electric vehicles
Scag; Path
Analysis of requirements for accelerating the development of geothermal energy resources in California
Various resource data are presented showing that geothermal energy has the potential of satisfying a significant part of California's increasing energy needs. General factors slowing the development of geothermal energy in California are discussed and required actions to accelerate its progress are presented. Finally, scenarios for developing the most promising prospect in the state directed at timely on-line power are given. Specific actions required to realize each of these individual scenarios are identified.
Fredrickson, C.D.
A Dark Energy Model with Generalized Uncertainty Principle in the Emergent, Intermediate and Logamediate Scenarios of the Universe
This work is motivated by the work of Kim et al (2008), which considered the equation of state parameter for the new agegraphic dark energy based on generalized uncertainty principle coexisting with dark matter without interaction. In this work, we have considered the same dark energy inter- acting with dark matter in emergent, intermediate and logamediate scenarios of the universe. Also, we have investigated the statefinder, kerk and lerk parameters in all three scenarios under this inter- action. The energy density and pressure for the new agegraphic dark energy based on generalized uncertainty principle have been calculated and their behaviors have been investigated. The evolu- tion of the equation of state parameter has been analyzed in the interacting and non-interacting situations in all the three scenarios. The graphical analysis shows that the dark energy behaves like quintessence era for logamediate expansion and phantom era for emergent and intermediate expansions of the universe.
Rahul Ghosh; Surajit Chattopadhyay; Ujjal Debnath
Big-bang nucleosynthesis and the relic abundance of dark matter in a stau-neutralino coannihilation scenario
A scenario of the Big-Bang Nucleosynthesis is analyzed within the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model which is consistent with a stau-neutralino coannihilation scenario to explain the relic abundance of dark matter. We find that we can account for the possible descrepancy of the abundance of $\\mathrm{^{7}Li}$ between the observation and the prediction of the Big-Bang Nucleosynthesis by taking the mass of the neutralino as $300 \\mathrm{GeV}$ and the mass difference between the stau and the neutralino as $(100 -- 120) MeV$. We can therefore simultaneously explain the abundance of the dark matter and that of $\\mathrm{^{7}Li}$ by these values of parameters. The lifetime of staus in this scenario is predicted to be $O(100 -- 1000) sec$.
Toshifumi Jittoh; Kazunori Kohri; Masafumi Koike; Joe Sato; Takashi Shimomura; Masato Yamanaka
Next Generation Safeguards Initiative: Analysis of Probability of Detection of Plausible Diversion Scenarios at Gas Centrifuge Enrichment Plants Using Advanced Safeguards
Over the last decade, efforts by the safeguards community, including inspectorates, governments, operators and owners of centrifuge facilities, have given rise to new possibilities for safeguards approaches in enrichment plants. Many of these efforts have involved development of new instrumentation to measure uranium mass and uranium-235 enrichment and inspection schemes using unannounced and random site inspections. We have chosen select diversion scenarios and put together a reasonable system of safeguards equipment and safeguards approaches and analyzed the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed safeguards approach by predicting the probability of detection of diversion in the chosen safeguards approaches. We analyzed the effect of redundancy in instrumentation, cross verification of operator instrumentation by inspector instrumentation, and the effects of failures or anomalous readings on verification data. Armed with these esults we were able to quantify the technical cost benefit of the addition of certain instrument suites and show the promise of these new systems.
Hase, Kevin R. [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Hawkins Erpenbeck, Heather [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Boyer, Brian D. [Los Alamos National Laboratory
Fondazione Eni Enrico MatteiEnvironmental Externalities of Geological Carbon Sequestration Effects on Energy Scenarios Summary
Geological carbon sequestration seems one of the promising options to address, in the near term, the global problem of climate change, since carbon sequestration technologies are in principle available today and their costs are expected to be affordable. Whereas extensive technological and economic feasibility studies rightly point out the large potential of this �clean fossil fuel � option, relatively little attention has been paid so far to the detrimental environmental externalities that the sequestering of CO2 underground could entail. This paper assesses what the relevance might be of including these external effects in long-term energy planning and scenario analyses. Our main conclusion is that, while these effects are generally likely to be relatively small, carbon sequestration externalities do matter and influence the nature of future world energy supply and consumption. More importantly, since geological carbon storage (depending on the method employed) may in some cases have substantial external impacts, in terms of both environmental damage and health risks, it is recommended that extensive studies are performed to quantify these effects. This article addresses three main questions: (i) What may energy supply look like if one accounts for large-scale CO2 sequestration in the construction of long-term energy and
Koen Smekens; Bob Van Der Zwaan; Nota Di Lavoro
Mass spectrum in SQCD and problems with the Seiberg duality. Another scenario
The N = 1 SQCD with SU(N{sub c}) colors and N{sub F} flavors of light quarks is considered within the dynamical scenario that assumes that quarks can be in the two different phases only: the heavy-quark phase, where they are confined, and the phase of higgsed quarks, at the appropriate values of the Lagrangian parameters. The mass spectra of this (direct) theory and its Seiberg dual are obtained and compared for quarks of small equal or unequal masses. It is shown that in those regions of the parameter space where an additional small parameter exists (it is bar b{sub 0} /N{sub F} = (3N{sub c} - N{sub F} )/N{sub F} window, where the direct theory is weakly coupled in the vicinity of its IR fixed point, or its analog 0 window), the mass spectra of the direct and dual theories are parametrically different. A number of other regimes are also considered.
Chernyak, V. L., E-mail: firstname.lastname@example.com [Russian Academy of Sciences, Budker Institute of Nuclear Physics, Siberian Branch (Russian Federation)
Calculation of the proportion of reactive waste for hydrogen ignition scenario
This study was conducted as outlined in NHC Letter of Instruction 9751330 dated February 247 1997 and entitled {open_quotes}Analysis by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory to Support a Safety Assessment for Rotary Mode Core Sampling in Flammable Gas Watchlist Tanks{close_quotes}. As prescribed in this letter, the results of this study were provided to Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) to revise the safety assessment document. Sampling Hanford tanks with a rotary drill could result in a drill-bit overheating accident which could ignite flammable gases present in the tanks. According to calculations, an over-heated drill bit could not get hot enough to ignite the hydrogen directly. However, an overheated drill bit could ignite saltcake waste containing high concentrations of organics, and a local organics burn would achieve sufficient temperature to ignite flammable gas present in the waste. This report estimates one quantity required to evaluate this particular accident scenario; the fraction of reactive waste in the tank waste. Reactive waste is waste that contains sufficient organic carbon and a low enough moisture content to ignite when in contact with an over-heated drill bit. This report presents a methodology to calculate the proportion of reactive waste for the 100 series tanks, using sampling data from tank characterization studies. The tanks are ranked according to their reactive waste proportions, and confidence limits are assigned to the estimates.
Gao, Feng; Heasler, P.G.
Probing Brane-World Scenarios with Vacuum Refraction of Light Using Gamma-Ray Bursts
We argue that in fat brane-world scenarios the light propagating in vacuum will, because of massive ``Kaluza-Klein'' (KK) excitations, experience a refraction. The motion of a photon inside a fat brane can be decomposed in the longitudinal and transverse directions with respect to the surface of the brane. Since the light observable propagation is related only with the longitudinal motion, the observed speed of light depends on the value of the momentum transverse fraction contributing as the massive KK excitations. This is directly connected with the energy of the particles emitting the light, and hence with the frequency of the light itself. Using recent results on the arrival times of radiation of different energies from the measurements of gamma-ray bursters with known redshifts, we establish the limit M>620 TeV on the inverse thickness of the brane, and thus on the masses of the KK excitations. This limit exceeds by at least one order of magnitude the typical energy scale currently in use to characterize brane phenomena in the realm of future colliders.
Merab Gogberashvili; Alexander S. Sakharov; Edward K. G. Sarkisyan
A techno-economic analysis on the production of cellulosic ethanol by fermentation was conducted to understand the viability of liquid biofuel production processes within the next 5-8 years. Initially, 35 technologies were reviewed, then a two-step down selection was performed to choose scenarios to be evaluated in a more detailed economic analysis. The lignocellulosic ethanol process was selected because it is well studied and portions of the process have been tested at pilot scales. Seven process variations were selected and examined in detail. Process designs were constrained to public data published in 2007 or earlier, without projecting for future process improvements. Economic analysis was performed for an 'nth plant' (mature technology) to obtain total investment and product value (PV). Sensitivity analysis was performed on PV to assess the impact of variations in process and economic parameters. Results show that the modeled dilute acid pretreatment process without any downstream process variation had the lowest PV of $3.40/gal of ethanol ($5.15/gallon of gasoline equivalent) in 2007 dollars. Sensitivity analysis shows that PV is most sensitive to feedstock and enzyme costs.
Kazi, F. K.; Fortman, J.; Anex, R.; Kothandaraman, G.; Hsu, D.; Aden, A.; Dutta, A.
Alcator C-Mod Experiments in Support of the ITER Baseline 15 MA Scenario
Experiments on Alcator C-Mod have addressed several issues for the ITER 15 MA baseline scenario from 2009-2012. Rampup studies show ICRF can save significant V-s, and that an H-mode in the ramp can be utilized to save 50% more. ICRF modifications to li(1) are minimal, although the Te profile is peaked relative to ohmic in the plasma center, and alter sawtooth onset times. Rampdown studies show H-modes can be routinely sustained, avoiding an OH coil over-current associated with the H-L transition, that fast rampdowns are preferred, the density drops with Ip, and that the H-L transition occurs at Ploss/Pthr,LH ~ 1.0-1.3 at n/nGr ~ 0.85. Flattop plasmas targeting ITER baseline parameters have been sustained for 20 ?E or 8-13 ?CR, but only reach H98 ~ 0.6 at n/nGr = 0.85, rising to 0.9 at n/nGr = 0.65.
C Kessel, et al
Intensity, duration, and frequency of precipitation extremes under 21st-century warming scenarios
Recent research on the projection of precipitation extremes has either focused on conceptual physical mechanisms that generate heavy precipitation or rigorous statistical methods that extrapolate tail behavior. However, informing both climate prediction and impact assessment requires concurrent physically and statistically oriented analysis. A combined examination of climate model simulations and observation-based reanalysis data sets suggests more intense and frequent precipitation extremes under 21st-century warming scenarios. Utilization of statistical extreme value theory and resampling-based uncertainty quantification combined with consideration of the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship reveals consistently intensifying trends for precipitation extremes at a global-average scale. However, regional and decadal analyses reveal specific discrepancies in the physical mechanisms governing precipitation extremes, as well as their statistical trends, especially in the tropics. The intensifying trend of precipitation extremes has quantifiable impacts on intensity-duration-frequency curves, which in turn have direct implications for hydraulic engineering design and water-resources management. The larger uncertainties at regional and decadal scales suggest the need for caution during regional-scale adaptation or preparedness decisions. Future research needs to explore the possibility of uncertainty reduction through higher resolution global climate models, statistical or dynamical downscaling, as well as improved understanding of precipitation extremes processes.
Kao, Shih-Chieh [ORNL; Ganguly, Auroop R [ORNL