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August 2005 | September 2005 | October 2005
September 23, 2005
September 16, 2005
If any proof were needed of how rich a regular webpage with Javascript can be, here's Super Mario Brothers implemented in Javascript.
Whenever Shannon and I work out of the Soho office in central London I spot someone "famous". Soho has a large pool of media-related businesses, so there are often actors coming and going.
Today's subject was John Hurt, an excellent actor of stage and screen, famous for having an alien burst our of his stomach, in space, where no one can hear you scream.
September 14, 2005
A couple of times a year Bill Gates makes a humorous video, usually a take off of a movie or advertisment, used to lighten up his talks at different professional conferences. These are not distributed, because the content tends to be proprietory, but just for a change someone managed to take a shot of a frame from the one shown at the Professional Developers Conference.
As a sufferer of vertigo, I'm not sure I could cope with this proposal for a glass walkway over the Grand Canyon.
September 12, 2005
Nice piece on Laura, my sister-in-law, who is a Breast Care Coordinator in Pennsylvania.


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NSW winning unemployment race - Roozendaal
PUBLISHED: 10 Jun 2010 14:15:55 | UPDATED: 10 Jun 2010 14:15:55PRINT EDITION: 10 Jun 2010
NSW has beat other states in the race to reduce unemployment with 14 months of consecutive jobs growth, Treasurer Eric Roozendaal says.
The state's unemployment rate was a seasonally adjusted 5.2 per cent in May, down from 5.7 per cent in April and from well down from 6.4 per cent a year before.
It was also the lowest monthly rate since December 2008, when it last hit 5.2 per cent.
"On a trend basis, jobs in NSW have grown for 14 consecutive months and the number of full time jobs has grown for six consecutive months," Mr Roozendaal said on Thursday in a statement.
"This is more good news for the NSW economy as the green shoots of recovery continue to grow."
The treasurer said NSW's unemployment rate has fallen 1.6 per cent since its peak in March 2009.
In contrast, Victoria's unemployment rate fell by 0.3 of a percentage point, Western Australia fell 0.7 while Queensland rose 0.6 since March 2009, Mr Roozendaal said.
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People | Eric Roozendaal |
Topics | Politics, Employment & Industrial Relations |

subset: commoncrawl


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GERALD F. SEIB: Thank you all for being here. My name is Jerry Seib. I'm the executive Washington editor of The Wall Street Journal and appreciate everybody showing up on a cold day to discuss an important topic.
Before we get started, I do have to do the requisite housekeeper's duties, the first of which is to remind you all to turn off, not just turn off the ringers on but actually turn off BlackBerrys and cellphones, not merely so the ring doesn't interrupt us but so that the buzzing doesn't interfere with the sound system here.
So thank you very much. And as a reminder to everybody here, this meeting is being held on the record. I'm happy to be here, to moderate, because I do think this is an extraordinarily important topic.
You know, with all the attention that's been lavished on the economic problem/crisis of the day and the financial market meltdown, there's been an enormous amount of attention lavished on those subjects. I think there has been relatively little attention paid to the subject that we're here to discuss today, which is the effect of that crisis on the developing world, on developing nations.
I think it's a hugely important topic but one that, because of the obvious and understandable focus on what's happening on our shores, has probably gotten relatively little attention. And so maybe this conversation is a way to start redressing that balance in the policy debate in the U.S.
Happily we have two wonderful experts here to discuss it with us -- Nancy Birdsall, who's president of the Center for Global Development, and Danny Leipziger, who is vice president for Poverty Reduction and Economic Management at the World Bank.
What we're going to do is, I'm going to start this off by asking Nancy and Danny a couple of questions, mostly to just draw them out a little bit. And as you know, if you've been to past council events, about halfway through this hour, we will turn the switch and let you all do the questioning. And I'm sure there's no shortage of topics to address.
Danny, let me start with you. You know, it did seem, at the beginning of this crisis, whenever you want to say the beginning was but earlier this year, that the developing world might get sort of a pass, that this looked like an industrialized, maybe an American-only or maybe an industrialized-world-only economic crisis.
That's clearly not the case. And now the developing world seems to be getting a double whammy. There is the ripple effect from the financial markets meltdown in and of itself. And there's the global recession that seems to be reducing demand for all kinds of commodities, on which so many of these companies depend for their own livelihood.
I guess the question that I wanted to pose, to you, is twofold. How bad is this now, in the developing world? And has it reached the bottom there yet? Or are we yet to see the bottom in months to come?
DANNY M. LEIPZIGER: Well, I guess, my answer would be that we haven't hit bottom yet for developing countries. It is true that they are being buffeted both by the financial crisis and the impending recession. But you also have to step back six months and realize that the food and fuel situation earlier, in 2008, left a lot of developing countries quite vulnerable, particularly on the fiscal side. And I want to come back to that, because a lot of countries managed to shelter part of the past, through very high food prices and very high fuel prices, through fiscal means.
And so now we're in a situation where the problems that you describe are in the financial sector. There's problems of trade finance. And trade volumes have suffered as a result. So going into the fourth quarter, there are countries, larger emerging market countries that are worried about rollover risks.
But for the majority, 2009 is going to be the big hit, because we know that growth rates are going to be extremely low, probably 1 percent globally at best, negative in the OECD, being held up by China, which might be six if the fiscal stimulus works.
But that leaves developing countries with a pretty poor outlook. And so they're going to have to deal with this, in some respects, with fiscal means. So again, you know, what space do developing countries have to do something countercyclically? Not that much.
What space do they have to make up for capital inflows, particularly into infrastructure investments that are going to dry up? And what space do they have to increase safety nets, for those that are going to be affected by the recession, in 2009, cascading onto them and through safety net programs.
So all of these things add up to fiscal cost. So the biggest concern for, I would think, most finance ministers is, how are they going to get through 2009?
SEIB: Nancy, you've seen, we've seen a reaction by the world community, by the financial institutions, by the developing world, by the developed world. But it seemed to some to be a little sporadic, maybe a little haphazard and maybe not totally coherent at this point.
I'm wondering, from your point of view, whether there are things that the IFIs could be doing, that the G-20 countries could be doing, that the U.S. could be doing, in policy terms, to redress the balance in the developing nations, that haven't been done yet.
Is there a to-do list for countries that are observing what's happening in the developing world?
NANCY BIRDSALL: Yes, I think, there's definitely a to-do list.
On the positive side, the G-20 meeting was a start at ensuring there's reasonable coordination. But some people -- you know, I would include myself -- were disappointed that there wasn't more clarity on some kind of an announcement, across the G-20, for those countries able to do a stimulus package, of what would be a target, you know, overall at the global level.
On the other hand, it was good that the G-20 met. I think it's worth noting that maybe, that we're in the last stages of having something called the G-7. So that already bodes well for how the former or existing G-7 are responding, in terms of ensuring more discussion, more coordination with some of the major emerging markets.
I'd say, on the negative side, that the crisis revealed the weaknesses particularly of the IMF and to some extent of the multilateral banks. On the IMF, I think, we saw first that the day -- there's some controversy about this -- but that the day that the Fed announced swaps, with four major countries, that same day, the IMF approved a liquidity shock facility. And there's some disagreement, among insiders, about the extent to which there was or wasn't coordination or just passing of information from the U.S. side to the IMF officials.
Danny might know more about that. And I don't know if it's worth worrying about it, in retrospect, because the main point is that the swap facility did come quickly from the Fed, in a way that in the past, you would have thought, well, in principle, the IMF as an institution would be doing that. And then there was a lot of discussion about whether the IMF has sufficient capital.
Last night, Michel Camdessus at a meeting said in effect that he doesn't think it has enough, by a long shot, and that even at the time of the Asian financial crisis, they discussed doing a special agreement or NAB.
I forget what it stands for.
SEIB: New agreement to borrow.
BIRDSALL: New agreement to borrow, going for 200 billion then. So, you know, if you translate that into today's needs, you'd be at a trillion (dollars), at least. So there's a resources problem.
But there's also a stigma problem. We see that a lot of the emerging markets are not wanting to go to the IMF. And so that reflects a long-time -- well, it's two things. One is the concern that it'll be a message to the markets. But it -- there's also the theory, anyway, that they don't like to go to the IMF because it's onerous, it takes a long time, and conditionality and so on.
So I think the response at the institutional level through the major -- the G-7 and other countries -- some of it has to be revisiting, in the short run, financing questions at the IMF. And then there are a lot of issues at the World Bank as well, about instruments and lack of use.
I think the IDB, just to make one last point -- I don't want to go on too long, because many people in the room know more about this than I do -- but one very interesting thing was, at the IDB, they very quickly issued a $6 billion credit facility. The only thing that's unfortunate is that it was -- they only had the 6 billion (dollars) because of existing internal financial rules that they could use for this sort of rapid response. So it's only relevant for the smallest countries in Latin America. I mean, $6 billion doesn't begin to address the likely needs in Latin America as a whole.
SEIB: I'd love to come back in a few minutes to the question of whether this crisis also presents an opportunity to revisit the structure of the international financial community. But let's set that aside for a second and deal with the kind of higher-plane question first, Danny.
I mean, obviously the impact of a crisis like this is not uniform and even across the board. There are some regions that suffer more, some less, I assume, some that suffer in different ways than others.
Could you just look around the globe a bit and talk about what you think are the regional and varying regional impacts of this crisis to this point, and maybe country by country to some extent as well?
LEIPZIGER: Well, I think the biggest concern is going to be in Africa, because since 2000 there's been a lot of progress in terms of countries that actually generated 5 percent or more growth, and poverty, you know, was beginning to fall.
For countries like -- for regions such as East Asia and South Asia, which had been doing pretty well in terms of macro and poverty reduction, they're better positioned to withstand shocks. And in general, developing countries are better positioned now. The -- that's the good news.
The bad news is, the shock is much larger than we've ever seen in the last 80 years. So I think, in terms of growth rates, we're looking at, you know, most regions of the world having their growth rates cut in half in the developing world; East Asia less than that, because of China.
I think the concern in Latin America -- I was in Colombia and talked with President Uribe yesterday morning, and you know, his main concern is, you know, what's going to happen to Mexico and Brazil? And what's going to happen to my neighbors? And what growth rates are you and the World Bank projecting, given that the OECD is going to be negative?
So I think it'll vary by country, how much fiscal space they have. I think one indicator that we used to use, which was reserves, is no longer such a great indicator, I believe, because once markets begin to worry about your ability to roll over, there is -- the level of reserves is not much protection.
So coming back to Nancy's point on the IMF, I think the short-term liquidity facility, which gives you up to 500 percent of quota, is, however, a very short-term facility. It's three months, which can rolled over twice. Supposedly certain countries are eligible because their macroeconomics is good, but there's no list that says, you know, you're automatically eligible. So countries don't particularly want to go there and --
SEIB: Yeah.
LEIPZIGER: -- and be examined before deciding on this. So I think --
BIRDSALL: It's too bad they can't do -- the way Paulson did and tell some countries -- like he told the banks you must take, you know, a certain amount. And that would eliminate the --
SEIB: Because of a stigma, (of course you mean ?).
BIRDSALL: Yeah. Yeah.
LEIPZIGER: Yeah, I mean, I think --
BIRDSALL: But it's expensive. It's an expensive --
LEIPZIGER: Well, it's expensive. It's short-term.
Your point is right about the lack of overall volumes. I mean, the amount that the Fund has could easily be eaten up. I mean, the first few programs -- Iceland, Hungary, Ukraine -- have chewed up, you know, probably 20 (billion dollars) to 30 billion (dollars) right there. And that's about a quarter of what they have, in terms of usable resources.
I should say, on the World Bank side, that we are, fortunately, very well capitalized these days, and in part because emerging markets were borrowing less, we have more space to lend. So Bob Zoellick has indicated that we can easily see ourselves doubling lending on IBRD, which is the normal window, in 2009, and that if necessary we could go up to a hundred billion (dollars) of lending over the next three years.
So we have the space. It'll depend, of course, on individual countries, what they want to borrow.
SEIB: And by the way, do you have, at the Bank, a projection about how long this phase, this cycle we're in, actually lasts? When does it hit bottom? When does the arrow start to turn up, in your estimate?
LEIPZIGER: Yeah. Well, we have these projections, but then we change them every couple of weeks, because things just keep getting worse. (Laughter.) --
SEIB: (Chuckles.) That's all right. Just the latest one's all we need. (Chuckles.)
LEIPZIGER: Well, I think -- here there are two ways to look at it. The evidence that one has is historical, okay? So historically, recessions last about three quarters. If you have a recession combined with a housing or some other equity-market crunch, it's two to three times that term -- in terms of length. So I think we're talking about six quarters at a minimum.
The other question is, you know, what is the speed of recovery? So, you know, is it a V? Is it a U? Is it a prolonged flat period?
LEIPZIGER: L. (Laughter.) It's --
SEIB: L would be bad.
LEIPZIGER: Hopefully not an L. (Laughter.)
So I would say, 2009, a, you know, very bad year for everyone. The question is, will there be recovery in 2010, and if so, when? The fiscal stimulus point is right. There are only a few developing countries and emerging-market economies that matter in terms of fiscal stimulus.
China has acted -- if we look around -- coming back to your question about regional differentiation, if you look in East Asia, most of the major economies in addition to China -- if you look at Korea, Thailand, Malaysia -- they've all announced fiscal stimulus packages of somewhere between 1 and 2 percent of GDP. So I think East Asia will try what it can.
Latin America, some countries are positioned to do something, but traditionally the fear of inflation -- and rightly so -- would stop them from being too aggressive in terms of fiscal stimulus.
SEIB: Nancy, are there regions, countries that you worry about, particularly -- particularly soft spots at this point that are going to go deeper and have a hard time coming back up, in your estimation?
BIRDSALL: Well, instead of giving a direct answer, let me just say about Africa and Latin America.
On Africa, it's very interesting. Someone who's worked -- a senior fellow at the center who is not an economist but a political scientist said yesterday that the decline in commodity prices may be a good thing, overall, for Africa, with the following caveat, that it doesn't -- they don't go down a whole lot more, because of China -- China's growth being not even what Danny was suggesting. So there's a lot at stake around what happens in China.
But the reason he said that is that -- what Danny mentioned earlier, that the food and -- the food and oil price hikes really hit some African economies very hard on the fiscal side, and so they are having a little period of relief. And the volatility for oil exporters in Africa or the price hikes is also very problematic from the point of view of governance and corruption and inability to cope with the ups and downs of prices. And so I think it's very interesting to note that these commodity prices -- although they've fallen from the peaks in the spring -- are still relatively high compared to five years ago, 10 -- well, maybe not five years ago but certainly 10 years ago and 20 years ago. And that's true for food as well.
So that's very interesting to me, in the sense that one of the big risks in Africa is going to come on the social and political side. There were a lot -- there were a lot of social problems, a lot of urban rioting or close to it, at the times of the food hike -- price hike in particular.
Then, on Latin America, it's very interesting. Apparently, because of sound fundamentals in the last five, six, seven years and because commodity prices have stayed -- you know, they're down, but they're not down that much, which is a benefit for Latin American commodity exporters -- the initial financial hit has been -- well, I don't want to say decoupling, because, you know, that's probably an exaggeration. But it is -- it does seem that it's possible for the governments to be -- because they in the last five years extended the maturities on their sovereign debt, that they're doing okay and they can wait before going, say, instantly to the IMF. And they seem to be counting on -- if there's still a problem in six months or nine months when they may have to do some rollover of debt, that's when they're going to start talking to the World Bank.
So that's kind of an interesting twist, that again has to have you a little bit worried about the traditional role of the IMF as -- with liquidity and the -- what's going to happen at the World Bank and the IDB and the regional banks. And I think that's an interesting thing to hear from some people who know about these issues, whether the MDBs should have some adjustment in their traditional mission that allows for -- sort of make more transparent the fact of countercyclical financing, given that we live in a world where there are deeper, you know, ups and downs, bigger booms and busts and that the only time they've done countercyclical financing, really, is when there have been emergencies. And it's always really seen as substituting or complementing IMF money. It's not really, down the line, what was the original intention and mission of these banks. So that goes a little bit to your --
SEIB: But is -- but is there -- is there much happening in that countercyclical space right now? Is -- are people doing that, or are you talking about that as a void in the current situation, mostly?
BIRDSALL: No, no, not -- no. I think even though there isn't a lot happening yet, it's confidence-building that the World Bank can say, we have a hundred billion dollars.
SEIB: Well, when we --
BIRDSALL: And there's a sense in which countries that are able to weather, in the short run, this are thinking of going to the World Bank.
LEIPZIGER: I would say that during our annual meetings in October, we got quite a lot of exploratory demand, I would call it, for countries that want to make sure that they can cover some contingencies. I think the --
BIRDSALL: Maybe -- maybe you could even say something about this deeper --
LEIPZIGER: For a drawdown option -- yeah, we --
BIRDSALL: -- and whey there isn't more --
LEIPZIGER: Well, I think we have one instrument, which is called a DDO -- Deferred Drawdown Option -- which is basically you get a commitment from the World Bank based on your policies that you can borrow at some point in the future if needed. So it's -- it's a line. And these -- the condition, if you want, is that you maintain your macro policy over that period of time.
There wasn't a huge amount of interest in this instrument over the last few years, because we were in a -- in a boom part of the cycle. There is a lot more interest in it now. So actually, when we tallied up the potential interest or the potential additional demand coming out of our annual meetings in October, we got to a number that was pretty close to 15 billion (dollars.) But --
SEIB: Fifteen billion (dollars) is --
LEIPZIGER: Additional to what we normally lend. But this is exploratory demand, is the way I described it. This is not we're ready to --
SEIB: Right.
LEIPZIGER: -- to borrow.
BIRDSALL: It has a sort of value as --
LEIPZIGER: But countries, I think --
SEIB: But your point is this is a psychological value, to knowing that that's there even if it's not now.
LEIPZIGER: Yeah. And some countries are being prudent and setting up essentially a safety-net line of lenders, including the bank, but also perhaps central banks that have surpluses, like China or Japan, that might step in if the markets don't begin to loosen up. I think that's the big issue, which is, how long does it take the credit markets to loosen up?
It's true that countries have extended their -- maturity of their debt, and so a lot of them are not as desperate. But once you go past six months, you know, things come due, and you've got to refinance.
SEIB: So are we looking at a wave of refinancing and of -- you know, a bigger parade to the window at the IFIs six months from now than we're seeing today?
BIRDSALL: I think it's entirely possible if things are really still difficult.
SEIB: So that in that sense, we may not have seen --
BIRDSALL: I don't know --
SEIB: -- you don't see at the front end the worst of it.
LEIPZIGER: Right. I think --
BIRDSALL: Yeah, I would say six to nine months.
LEIPZIGER: I think part of it is, we look a lot at sovereign debt. We don't look that much at corporate debt.
SEIB: Yeah.
LEIPZIGER: And for countries like Mexico, Brazil, Indonesia --
BIRDSALL: It's already a problem.
LEIPZIGER: -- it's already a problem, and as you saw in the U.S., if your big corporates begin to have trouble, you know, governments tend to step in. And I think they will.
BIRDSALL: Right. So then it'll be socialized -- (inaudible).
SEIB: Danny, I think you at the -- in your opening remarks talked about trade flows.
LEIPZIGER: Yeah.
SEIB: You know, you do worry about declining trade flows at a time like this. You also worry about nationalism and protectionism. Are we starting to see that yet?
Nancy, let me start with you. Are you starting to see that kind of reflexive reaction in a way that troubles you yet, or is that not happening, or is it prospective?
BIRDSALL: I think we're starting to see it. I think sort of within a week after Sarkozy returned from the October -- no, the November --
MR. : The G-20.
BIRDSALL: -- the G-20 summit, there was some discussion of industrial protection, subsidies, or doing something in France. And even -- you know, some people would say the discussion here on the auto industry is going to be seen in other parts of the world, potentially -- well, it's a two-edged sword. I mean, obviously the markets we know today don't like the fact that it's not clear that something will happen. And so sovereigns aren't going to like it either, because it's affecting the overall environment.
SEIB: Right.
BIRDSALL: At the same time, it's an interesting question, since the -- we have been saying to developing countries for years -- in a sense, we've been restricting their policy space, sometimes with good reason, to ensure better policies and, you know, more discipline and so on. But now we see in industrial countries, particularly if you have the dollar, which is a big advantage, and you can borrow more easily longer and go deeper into debt -- that we're going to see something like some industrial policy emerging in the U.S. And I think it'll be very hard to resist it in the other G-7 countries. It's very tough politically.
So that's another big issue in terms of -- the line between the state and the market, I think, will be redrawn, and where it lands and whether it lands in sort of a healthy way or in a protectionist way is up in the air.
SEIB: It's a good question, right?
Danny, what do you think?
LEIPZIGER: Well, I think the evidence is not yet in, but it's going to -- it's beginning to trickle in, where countries are putting higher tariffs on or are more likely to file anti-dumping suits, et cetera. So I think it's inevitable, given the size of the recession, that you will see more protectionist actions, one way or the other.
The fact that Pascal Lamy has not been able to get the trade round restarted is not good. I think the U.S. has traditionally been the most open of the OECD markets. And so I think what happens here will send a strong signal. I mean, the French may do what they normally do, but at the end of the day, how the U.S. deals with it, I think, will set the tone.
A lot there has to do with China. I mean, the approach of trying to use domestic consumption to build -- boost aggregate demand when exports falter is -- you know, is a smart strategy, particularly given their needs to employ people. But what happens to the Chinese exchange rate also matters.
SEIB: Yeah.
BIRDSALL: And the latest is that they are going to delay any further appreciation.
MR. : Appreciation.
BIRDSALL: On this policy space, Danny reminded me of something, you know, that's quite interesting, which is that the last round in the trade negotiations, at least what I read in the papers, is that it broke down in part because the U.S. did not want to let India, among other countries, retain a certain level of safeguards against a surge in agricultural imports.
Now, maybe it's more complicated. There are people in the room that know a lot more about these trade negotiations than I do. But compare that, you know, to the problem now in the U.S., which is also about protecting people and jobs.
SEIB: Right.
BIRDSALL: So I think one of the problems we have for the medium term is that even the rich countries and certainly most developing countries have very limited instruments to deal with this kind of vulnerability and volatility. And we saw that with the food price hike; that in the absence of adequate arrangements for unemployment insurance and food stamps and so on, a lot of countries restricted -- if they were food producers, restricted exports.
SEIB: Yeah.
BIRDSALL: And of course those who were importers eliminated their tariffs, which was -- seemed okay at the time, then. You know, you have these distortions that come in part because of the lack of the ideal way to protect people.
SEIB: Yeah.
LEIPZIGER: Just on the Doha breakdown, a slightly different twist on it, I mean, Nancy's right that the final breaking point involved the U.S., China and India about special measures. But interestingly, if you look at the Pew Foundation survey last year on whether or not the public believes that free trade is a good thing, the percentage of Americans who thought that had fallen from something like 78 percent five years before to 53 (percent), I think, whereas the number was 91 (percent) in China and 87 percent in India. So these are countries that are benefitting from the open trading system that -- where the public really supports it, and then you have others where globalization is seen as being connected with all the ills of the economy.
So I think there was a solution to that particular impasse at Doha that would have been possible, but I think it's very instructive that the three countries that at the end couldn't agree have authorizing environments from their citizenry which is quite different.
SEIB: Yeah.
QUESTIONER: (Off mike.)
SEIB: Is that -- we'll -- we should turn to -- there -- just one thought before we turn to questions. Is that -- there's also an interesting question about the moral authority of the voice from the U.S. and the West, that it -- you know, if the model that you espouse doesn't seem to work all that well and if you yourself are edging away from reliance on markets and free trade, I'm not sure that the messages are going to get through very clearly in this environment, but maybe that's for a later discussion.
I would love to turn this over to questions. Just a couple of things. We have microphones that are floating about. Raise your hand, and I'll call on you. I'd ask that you stand up -- we'll start here -- state your name and your affiliation. Make the questions short and direct, so we can get as many in as possible. And if you want to direct it specifically to Nancy or Danny, let us know that as well.
QUESTIONER: Thank you. My name is Arturo Porzecanski, with American University.
And I'm wondering if we've struck the right tone here because, of course, a year from now things are going to feel a lot worse than now, here and there, because the recession is happening as we speak so the fallout from that will be probably quite severe all around.
But let's look back. I mean, during all those years when commodity prices skyrocketed, we didn't see that many developing countries that were commodity importers going belly-up. And the financial markets started to change for the worse a year and a half ago, and the fallback has been -- fallout has been pretty limited. And commodity prices, of course, have sunk already six months, and yet -- in other words, the Pakistans and the Ukraines and so on, I would say those were accidents waiting to happen; but in terms of the systemically important countries, and a lot of others too, the surprise is we don't have that many victims yet.
SEIB: Danny, do you want to respond?
LEIPZIGER: Well, I think there is an element of truth to what you're saying, which is that a number of the countries, particularly bigger ones, are better managed; had more to fall back on; had higher reserves, lower inflation, et cetera, et cetera. I also agree that there were certain economies that were out of whack before, and the crisis just tipped them over the edge.
Nevertheless, I think if you sat in on any of the G20 meetings, as I have, you would be surprised how worried policymakers in well managed emerging market economies are. And they read the same newspapers and they see the same projections and they have the same information.
So they know that this is a shock, or a series of shocks that is unprecedented. They know they don't have that much to fall back on and that at the end of the day, if you've been running a fiscal deficit of three percent of GDP and you know that for a recession that's going to last one to two years you need to spend another one percent on safety nets, another one or two percent to keep infrastructure projects going because capital flows have dried up. And you have to put money into, potentially, banks that may be affected because the OECD banks are pulling back their credit. I wouldn't be quite so sanguine about it, frankly.
SEIB: Nancy?
BIRDSALL: Yeah, I'm sort of with Danny on this one. Just thinking, we didn't go very much on specifics when Jerry asked, but if you think of Central America: very reliant on remittances. They're just drying up, and there we're sometimes talking about substantial -- two, three, four percent of GDP.
I think, you know, despite what my colleague said about Africa on commodity prices, that the difficulty in Africa is that you don't need -- you need at least two or three percent growth, just to stay where you are on the escalator. And if China collapses, which is a risk, then that's really a big problem in Africa. And you are going to be reading about very large increases in the number of people who are poor, partly because the $1-a-day or $2-a-day line -- there's so many people, you know, at 2.50 (dollars) and $3 a day that this is just going to be very big changes. And that then has social and political risks that I don't think we've ever seen, in terms of the change in expectations for people.
So, you know, I think it's -- I would go with what Danny said in the beginning, which is we haven't seen the bottom. And I think there's a lot of fear of what the bottom will be in countries that have a lot of poor people, very few instruments, et cetera.
SEIB: Let's go here first, and then I'll come back over to you next.
QUESTIONER: Paula Stern, with the Stern Group.
I want to go and talk about the other institution which hasn't been mentioned of the Bretton Woods Institutions, which is the World Trade Organization. We've talked about the Doha Round, but there are provisions which I'm wondering whether you think can be attended to in this crisis.
And I'm talking about financing of trade, the inability to get letters of credit, the whole -- as you talked about, the general drying up of trade and what the World Bank, the World Trade Organization and others might do as they think about reforming their organizations long-term, but also short-term right now, in terms of trade financing.
And my second question with regard to WTO is what should be done now, knowing that we've got like an automobile industrial policy race going on that could make the Airbus dispute, that's been around for three decades at least, look really small politically compared to when the automobile industry starts to race for subsidies and industrial help. And so I'm interested in how you can -- institutionally can kind of step forward on these two big issues, I think.
LEIPZIGER: Maybe I can take a crack at it. The trade finance one, there's no doubt that there is a policy intervention that is waiting to happen. And we have some facility through the IFC where we do trade finance through banks, and we've doubled it from one-and-a-half to three billion, but that's a drop in the bucket.
BIRDSALL: Right, that's small.
LEIPZIGER: I wouldn't particularly go with the WTO for this. I think that that's not the right institution. On the other hand, I would try to get money out of China and Japan and other surplus countries to do trade finance because, A, trade finance is pretty -- pretty safe, provided that you don't have a counterparty risk and people don't pay at the end. It's pretty short term: six months. And it's in the interests of both countries, because otherwise -- take the case of China -- you know, exports dry up even faster.
SEIB: What would be the path for getting that money out the door?
LEIPZIGER: Well, we've -- the IFC has been talking to people, whether they want to join that platform.
But it's not clear that, you know, this is the only platform that's out there. I think central banks could do it, provided that they ensure that once the money flows into the central bank and is given to banks, they actually use it for trade finance.
I mean, one of the problems is banks are holding onto their liquidity. And you can give them all the money you want. It's not going out the door. So, I think there, you're right, that there's an absolute need, and there's actually a solution, which is not that complicated in a way.
On the auto one, I think that's interesting -- on the previous question as to whether or not we see evidence of protectionism. I mean, I saw just this morning that the Russians have put a 30 percent tariffs on imported cars. Not fun. (Laughter.)
LEIPZIGER: So I think you are going to see a cascading of activity around cars, as the example you raise. And I think it's how they -- also how the WTO, in the absence of a solution on the Doha Round deals with these things, I think, will really set the tone.
On turf facilitation, there are a lot of things we can do with the World Bank but they're not amenable to the three-month crisis solution. I mean, there are things on logistics and, you know, we have a lot of programs that are, in normal times, good and, for 2010, they will be great.
The problem is getting through 2009.
SEIB: Yeah.
Nancy, anything on trade, financial, auto works?
BIRDSALL: Just on the trade finance, it's very interesting that the IFC, even though the amounts are too small, that it's the IFC and the IDB that came through rather quickly. And I don't know whether it's the -- it's probably the private sector window in the IDB. I'm not really sure if anybody here knows better.
But my point is that this is an interesting example where the government-to-government lending that has been the traditional mission of the multilateral banks, that the secular trend is down, you know. It's going to be up for a couple of years, but the long-run trend is the demand is falling. And it is the banks, either their private sector arms or a bank like the IDB that has the private sector loans on its balance sheet, that have responded more quickly.
So, it's something about, going back to the point I made earlier, that there may be time to rethink the role of the MDBs. Are they too constrained by this government guaranteed country loan which takes time? They should still be doing that and in the medium term for some countries, but should they have other instruments?
For example, we have a book coming out by Guillermo Perry, who was the Chief Economist for Latin America at the World Bank, that -- and we had a great meeting actually that was in this room some time ago. And his point is the multilateral banks should be making markets in insurance so that when you have a problem, you are already insured against it. And the low-income countries are much more vulnerable to terms of trade shocks, to natural disasters, and they don't have these insurance products available to them.
Most of them, after a natural disaster can get an emergency loan, but then they're taking on debt. And we don't do that. We have insurance against our house burning down or against -- some of us -- against a health catastrophe.
SEIB: I think the next question is over here.
Q Nancy Burke (sp), given the current situation and predictive that you're talking about with -- particularly with the poverty increasing in a lot of countries, what should the next government do to help mitigate that?
SEIB: In which country?
Q The United States. I'm sorry. Our incoming administration.
BIRDSALL: Jessica, who's a good board member, is reminding me that we have a book which we published about a month or two ago called "The White House And The World: A Global Development Agenda for the Next President." And it addresses that question across a range of issues, not just a aid, what could be done in trade.
I'll mention quickly, you know, we're advocating that the Obama administration pick a group of countries worthy and poor and small in absolute size, many of which already have some trade preferences and say duty-free, quota-free access permanently. These could be MCC countries, for those of you who know about that Bush aid program in Angola, countries in Sub-Saharan Africa and so on. So, anyway, trade, climate change, across the board.
But I think it's a very important question, and I encourage all of you to ask us for the book. At least note the kinds of issues that we cover. Maybe one more thing I'll say which is that there are ways to spend considerable amounts of money inside the U.S. that would be extremely valuable for the low-income developing countries and the poorest people within them.
And I'm thinking of clean energy. I'm thinking of a commitment that would give an incentive to our very, you know, sophisticated agricultural and agro-industrial firms to do R&D in areas that would be particularly helpful in tropical countries with dry land soils and so on, and those kinds of commitments that would give incentives to pharmaceutical firms to look for and find a malaria vaccine. So these are things that could be included as has been so much discussed in a different way, even in a stimulus package, at least a medium if it's going to go over a year or more. So, it's not just about aid.
LEIPZIGER: I think the biggest thing is to get the recovery started one or two quarters earlier. I think most of the numbers coming out of the World Bank say that -- and taking it with a margin of error -- but one percent lower growth in developing countries is at least 20 million more poor. And that doesn't count the people that are already below the poverty line that are just pushed further down. And we're not even counting that.
So, it's definitely, definitely an underestimate. We also know from research that Guillermo and his group did years ago, that the poor are very vulnerable. And once you drop below the poverty line, it's very hard to get back out. You've sold whatever asset you have, and you're probably stuck.
So, I would say -- without wanting to appear flip -- that the most important thing for the U.S. is to get its act together and to get together with the other OECD countries and get the growth stimulus package moving and restore confidence in these financial markets.
LEIPZIGER: In the back? (Off mike.)
QUESTIONER: Thank you. My name is -- (name inaudible) -- European Broadcasting System. I was wondering if the panel can make some comments on the idea of reshaping international institutions according to the last meeting of the G20 last November. Thank you.
LEIPZIGER: Yeah. Thank you. I wanted to get back to that. This is a good opportunity.
Nancy, you want to start?
BIRDSALL: Well, yes, it's a big issue. I think they're -- unfortunate that I happen to go to this meeting last night where Michel Comdecu (sp) was speaking. And there is a group that is being headed by Trevor Manuel who's the finance minister in South Africa -- many of you know -- with other distinguished members including Comdecu (sp).
And he made quite an astonishing speech last night, saying there should be major, you know, refinance -- more money put into the IMF, that there should be a complete re-overhaul of the governance structure in which there would be some sort of a supreme council that would actually make policy. That would either be finance ministers -- there was a lot of discussion about that -- rather than the current situation where apparently the board actually does make policy, at least in principle.
And, of course, there's the question of votes and quota reform. And a lot of people, including Comdecu (sp), were quite clear that it's absolutely critical to what I would call a non-marginal change. The IMF has on the table marginal fixes on votes and governance and so on. So I think that the opportunity that will arise from this crisis may be for a much more serious and more radical -- in a good sense -- thinking at the highest levels about particularly the IMF. And that will then redound to the World Bank.
My own simple view on the World Bank, among other reforms, is that it should have added to its mission a mandate to deal with global public goods including climate change. And that's very important in terms of visibility and the members saying this to the World Bank because at the moment the Bank doesn't really have an instrument to deal with global public goods. It has the country loan, as it's -- of course, it has other things going on, bits and pieces, but it's quite ad hoc.
So, you know, that would be another sort of fundamental change. But I think most people are focused now on what should be done at the IMF because of the financial crisis.
LEIPZIGER: Well, I think we have an opportunity. The G20 is a very interesting group, which has suddenly taken on great importance. I wouldn't quite agree with Nancy that the G7 is dead because that would upset the Italians with a chair who is coming --
BIRDSALL: Dying to chair it.
LEIPZIGER: -- here.
BIRDSALL: There will be a few more meetings. (Chuckles.)
LEIPZIGER: But the G20 is more representative. But we also have to be clear that it is not perfectly representative. It was set up also in an ad hoc way. And you can argue with a number of members who are in the G20 as to why, you know, they are there and others are not.
But that being said, I think there's a lot of potential in that forum, provided that the countries take it seriously. I think the issue about the IMF in the past, you know, five or 10 years -- apart from ideology and how they behave -- is that there were two big disequilibria in the world over the last five or 10 years: the U.S. deficit and the Chinese exchange rate.
They're both financial balance of payments-related issues. The IMF is the world's institution to deal with those issues. And the IMF was incapable of dealing with it because those particular countries, as well as some others, were not willing to take them seriously. So, the IMF did report faithfully that there were big imbalances and that the major cause, you know, rebounded basically on the U.S. and China. They were not able to do it.
So in this reform, whether it comes out of the Trevor Manuel Commission, we have something similar under Bob Zoellick which is the Zedillo Commission, so if you're an emerging market -- if you're a BRIC, you're in high demand these days for commission chairmanships, if nothing else.
BIRDSALL: You're a BRIC finance minister, (reformer ?) or head of state.
LEIPZIGER: Exactly. Exactly right. But whether or not what either Trevor or Ernesto come up with really holds water, depends very much on the willingness of major countries to have international institutions tell them when they're out of line. And so far, that hasn't happened. Whether or not we can get the financial stability forum / IMF to do improvements in the way we regulate, is another big challenge because the regulators have been a number of steps behind market innovation. So, we'll have to see whether or not they can get up to the curve if not ahead of the curve.
So I think, in answer to your question, that there's a lot of hope in the internal reforms and changes in governance, but at the end of the day it's very easy to pick on the governance structure of the Fund or Bank. And I think one can certainly do that because the reforms have involved only a few percentage points of votes. But it's really put to the test when other than just complaining about whether or not there are one or two chairs, countries actually are obliged to follow some international rules where the externalities of their not following these rules are major. And we've seen a great example of this, unfortunately, in the last year.
BIRDSALL: Yeah, absolutely. If I can make a quick comment on that? There are some ideas around because that -- there's no way really in the end to discipline individual members of a multilateral institution who are very powerful in their own right. So something about the reforms has to recognize that tough reality.
And some of the ideas include a little bit more emphasis on naming and chaining. So the IMF published those reports but it doesn't really -- about the U.S. and its fiscal problems and about the Chinese and exchange rate problems -- but I think it's all a little bit nuanced and careful. So that's a question in itself. To what extent should the staff and management of the IMF have more quasi-independence on at least transparency of the technical views, given that it's very difficult ever, fundamentally, to discipline your most powerful members, no matter what the governance structure?
LEIPZIGER: I agree.
SEIB: We have time for one last question, way in the back.
QUESTIONER: I'm Chuck Weiss (ph) from Georgetown University. I used to be the scientific adviser to the Bank a long time ago. I wanted to put together two things that Nancy Birdsall said. First, that the Bank ought to be specifically charged with looking at global public goods, and second that there's a big need for new science and technology in energy and health, which she said could be done in the United States. As long as you're thinking broadly about what the Bank should be doing, how about giving it a major mandate to manage a major program in science and technology, energy and health would be a great place to begin, in collaboration with governments and in collaboration with private industry?
BIRDSALL: Absolutely, good idea.
SEIB: It'll be in your next book.
BIRDSALL: Yeah. I think it's a matter of -- you're taking a step closer to how to do it and how you would make this operational. So, terrific. We'll get back to you. See how we can make that more real.
SEIB: The question is the answer. I think we can probably do one more. Somebody else had their hand up. Here. Right there.
MR. : They shut us down. This is off the record now. (Laughter.)
SEIB: No, it's still on the record. But this is the last question.
QUESTIONER: Good afternoon. I'm honored to be here. My name is Kunar Dibatini (ph) from EIR news service. My question has to do with policy, monetary policy right now.
If you look at what's (going on ?) with Lehman Brothers, AIG and all the investment banks, whatever, you could see now that the same people who were willing to engage in the so-called -- (a dismissal ?) called free trade market or whatever -- I mean one thing that has to be realized right now is that derivatives, hedge funds right now the depth of the (gauges ?) of these derivatives and hedge funds right now are worth over quad-trillions of dollars right now. And the world's GDP is worth $40 trillion dollars and there's no way right now, no matter how much money that Paulson or whatever, the incoming administration, is willing to bailout these so-called bankers or whatever.
The majority of the bailout money is going to the banks. And also, the banks are also using this money to bailout the so-called debt because there's no money right now it's willing to lend out any money because there's no one right now who is willing to take back bad debt. So what you're looking at right now is the recycle of the whole problem.
One has to reconsider the debt obligations of the hedge funds and derivatives. They don't engage in anything -- (inaudible) -- the economy. All that they do is make money out of nothing. So that's something that people have to consider.
Secondly, since there's no denying the fact that we're in a global breakdown crisis all over the world, if Africa, Asia, Europe and America are going to survive this global breakdown crisis we have to have a new international monetary system. And I think the idea of bringing the four powers: United States, Russia, China and India to set up a new international monetary system, to really reconsider this and to think about it and to make sure that with these four powers you could have other nations joining in, set exchange rates and other policies that will also benefit -- (inaudible).
LEIPZIGER: Well two things you said I think are worth thinking about. One is rather than worry about the global default I would take a look at a case like Iceland, which does illustrate your point, which is that if you leverage yourself and take unimaginable risks you can end up with liabilities that exceed your ability to pay. I'm reminded, since I used to work on Korea, that -- you were talking about the hedge funds and leveraging. And, you know, everyone knows hedge funds were leveraged 20-to-1. And as you say, they weren't doing anything particularly useful except finding discrepancies in the market which they thought they could capitalize on, which is fine.
But Korean Chaebol, the conglomerates, used to be leveraged at three-to-one, when U.S. firms were basically one-to-one in the stock market and everyone dumped on the Koreans. You know, they were so irresponsible and we just can't believe how much risk they were taking and this is a terrible thing. But they were leveraged three-to-one producing Hyundais and Kias, you know. They weren't leveraged at 20-to-1 looking for market imperfection. So I think you do have a point, which is that one has to be a little careful before one is too critical of others when one's own financial sector may have some flaws.
SEIB: I think we'll make that the last note. Thank you all very much for coming. I want to mention one thing in conclusion, that beginning in January, you may or may not know, the Council will be moving into its new building at 1777 F St. NW. So in the future I hope we all see you there. I hope you'll join me in thanking Danny and Nancy for a great (talk ?).


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The Weeks Family of Birmingham EnglandUpdated September 5, 2000 |
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I am Looking for Family related to the Weeks Family Birmingham, Engalnd,other Names by marriage since 1805 are Crowder, Graham, Hollowood, Trouhgton, Linton. The family has been based In Birmingham since the early 1800, before that it came from Bristol. |
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Subject: What is God Like? By: Jim MerittDate: 1992-07-24 In answer to the question: "What is God like?", the following extracts from God's true word are provided:
Why he cursed, and use to slap animals down! Genesis: 8:21 And the LORD smelled a sweet savour; and the LORD said in his heart, I will not again curse the ground any more for man's sake; for the imagination of man's heart is evil from his youth; neither will I again smite any more every thing living, as I have done.
ad a bit of a speach problem... Isaiah: 5:26 And he will lift up an ensign to the nations from far, and will hiss unto them from the end of the earth: and, behold, they shall come with speed swiftly.
Vomits a little now and then... Revelations: 3:16 So then because thou art lukewarm, and neither cold nor hot, I will spue thee out of my mouth.
Changes his mind now and then...(a little indecisive) Exodus: 32:14 And the LORD repented of the evil which he thought to do unto his people.
moons folks (just a good ol' boy!) (even is a little shy in the process...) Exodus: 33:23 And I will take away mine hand, and thou shalt see my back parts: but my face shall not be seen.
Talks to the devil like a GOOD satanist... Job : 1:7 And the LORD said unto Satan, Whence comest thou? Then Satan answered the LORD, and said, From going to and fro in the earth, and from walking up and down in it.
charges angels with folly. But we know how hard good help is to come by... Job : 4:18 Behold, he put no trust in his servants; and his angels he charged with folly.
causes adultery (love thy neighbor stuff...) 2 Samuel: 12:11 Thus saith the LORD, Behold, I will raise up evil against thee out of thine own house, and I will take thy wives before thine eyes, and give them unto thy neighbour, and he shall lie with thy wives in the sight of this sun.
causes suicide: Jeremiah: 19:7 And I will make void the counsel of Judah and Jerusalem in this place; and I will cause them to fall by the sword before their enemies, and by the hands of them that seek their lives: and their carcases will I give to be meat for the fowls of the heaven, and for the beasts of the earth.
causes "indecency" (if he can moon, they can streak, right?) Isaiah 20:3 And the LORD said, Like as my servant Isaiah hath walked naked and barefoot three years for a sign and wonder upon Egypt and upon Ethiopia; 20:4 So shall the king of Assyria lead away the Egyptians prisoners, and the Ethiopians captives, young and old, naked and barefoot, even with their buttocks uncovered, to the shame of Egypt.
tells people to lie 1 Samuel: 16:2 And Samuel said, How can I go? if Saul hear it, he will kill me. And the LORD said, Take an heifer with thee, and say, I am come to sacrifice to the LORD.
loves to oppress (but he is a good Capitolist!) Hosea: 12:7 He is a merchant, the balances of deceit are in his hand: he loveth to oppress.
rewards transgressors and fools Proverbs: 26:10 The great God that formed all things both rewardeth the fool, and rewardeth transgressors.
orders men to drink, be drunk, and vomit Jeremiah: 25:27 Therefore thou shalt say unto them, Thus saith the LORD of hosts, the God of Israel; Drink ye, and be drunken, and spue, and fall, and rise no more, because of the sword which I will send among you. 25:28 And it shall be, if they refuse to take the cup at thine hand to drink, then shalt thou say unto them, Thus saith the LORD of hosts; Ye shall certainly drink.
spreads shit on peoples faces: Malachi: 2:3 Behold, I will corrupt your seed, and spread dung upon your faces, even the dung of your solemn feasts; and one shall take you away with it.
Has really bad table manners... Hosea: 13:8 I will meet them as a bear that is bereaved of her whelps, and will rend the caul of their heart, and there will I devour them like a lion: the wild beast shall tear them.
deceives his own prophets Jeremiah: 20:7 O LORD, thou hast deceived me, and I was deceived; thou art stronger than I, and hast prevailed: I am in derision daily, every one mocketh me.
sought to kill his own emissary Exedous: 4:24 And it came to pass by the way in the inn, that the LORD met him, and sought to kill him.
sanctions slavery Exodus: 21:2 If thou buy an Hebrew servant, six years he shall serve: and in the seventh he shall go out free for nothing. 21:3 If he came in by himself, he shall go out by himself: if he were married, then his wife shall go out with him. 21:4 If his master have given him a wife, and she have born him sons or daughters; the wife and her children shall be her master's, and he shall go out by himself. 21:5 And if the servant shall plainly say, I love my master, my wife, and my children; I will not go out free: 21:6 Then his master shall bring him unto the judges; he shall also bring him to the door, or unto the door post; and his master shall bore his ear through with an aul; and he shall serve him for ever.
orders slave-capturing expeditions (kill the men, keep the booty!) Deuteronomy: 20:12 And if it will make no peace with thee, but will make war against thee, then thou shalt besiege it: 20:13 And when the LORD thy God hath delivered it into thine hands, thou shalt smite every male thereof with the edge of the sword: 20:14 But the women, and the little ones, and the cattle, and all that is in the city, even all the spoil thereof, shalt thou take unto thyself; and thou shalt eat the spoil of thine enemies, which the LORD thy God hath given thee.
orders the slaughter of men, women, and children (a right bloodthirsty guy) 1 Samuel: 15:3 Now go and smite Amalek, and utterly destroy all that they have, and spare them not; but slay both man and woman, infant and suckling, ox and sheep, camel and ass.
After killing off the men, keep the virgins around for "a good time" Numbers: 31:17 Now therefore kill every male among the little ones, and kill every woman that hath known man by lying with him. 31:18 But all the women children, that have not known a man by lying with him, keep alive for yourselves.
Like, he can't even trust the truth, so he send delusions to damn people 2 Thessalonians: 2:11 And for this cause God shall send them strong delusion, that they should believe a lie: 2:12 That they all might be damned who believed not the truth, but had pleasure in unrighteousness.
white hair DAN 7:9 I beheld till the thrones were cast down, and the An- cient of days did sit, whose garment was white as snow, and the hair of his head like the pure wool: his throne was like the fiery flame, and his wheels as burning fire.
gets tired and needs a rest GEN 2:2 And on the seventh day God ended his work which he had made; and he rested on the seventh day from all his work which he had made.
smokes PSA 18:8 There went up a smoke out of his nostrils, and fire out of his mouth devoured: coals were kindled by it.
has various body parts PSA 17:4 Concerning the works of men, by the word of thy lips I have kept me from the paths of the destroyer. PSA 11:4 The LORD is in his holy temple, the LORD's throne is in heaven: his eyes behold, his eyelids try, the children of men. PSA 18:8 There went up a smoke out of his nostrils, and fire out of his mouth devoured: coals were kindled by it. ISA 30:27 Behold, the name of the LORD cometh from far, burning with his anger, and the burden thereof is heavy: his lips are full of indignation, and his tongue as a devouring fire: ISA 1:20 But if ye refuse and rebel, ye shall be devoured with the sword: for the mouth of the LORD hath spoken it. PSA 8:3 When I consider thy heavens, the work of thy fingers, the moon and the stars, which thou hast ordained; PSA 18:10 And he rode upon a cherub, and did fly: yea, he did fly upon the wings of the wind.
gambles (fixes the dice and lets his people be distributed that way) PRO 16:33 The lot is cast into the lap; but the whole disposing thereof is of the LORD. JOS 18:6 Ye shall therefore describe the land into seven parts, and bring the description hither to me, that I may cast lots for you here before the LORD our God. JOE 3:3 And they have cast lots for my people; and have given a boy for an harlot, and sold a girl for wine, that they might drink. OBA 1:11 In the day that thou stoodest on the other side, in the day that the strangers carried away captive his forces, and foreigners entered into his gates, and cast lots upon Jerusalem, even thou wast as one of them. JON 1:7 And they said every one to his fellow, Come, and let us cast lots, that we may know for whose cause this evil is upon us. So they cast lots, and the lot fell upon Jonah. NAH 3:10 Yet was she carried away, she went into captivity: her young children also were dashed in pieces at the top of all the streets: and they cast lots for her honourable men, and all her great men were bound in chains.
gets angry KI1 11:9 And the LORD was angry with Solomon, because his heart was turned from the LORD God of Israel, which had appeared unto him twice, EXO 22:24 And my wrath shall wax hot, and I will kill you with the sword; and your wives shall be widows, and your children fa- therless NUM 11:1 And when the people complained, it displeased the LORD: and the LORD heard it; and his anger was kindled; and the fire of the LORD burnt among them, and consumed them that were in the ut- termost parts of the camp. NUM 11:10 Then Moses heard the people weep throughout their fam- ilies, every man in the door of his tent: and the anger of the LORD was kindled greatly; Moses also was displeased. NUM 11:33 And while the flesh was yet between their teeth, ere it was chewed, the wrath of the LORD was kindled against the peo- ple, and the LORD smote the people with a very great plague. NUM 12:9 And the anger of the LORD was kindled against them; and he departed. NUM 25:3 And Israel joined himself unto Baalpeor: and the anger of the LORD was kindled against Israel.
This is one odd dude...


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Series tied 1-1 (as of 8/9)
Game 1: Monday, August 8 | ||
Houston | 9 | Final |
Arizona | 1 | |
Recap »Boxscore » |
Game 2: Tuesday, August 9 | ||
Houston | 9 | Final |
Arizona | 11 | |
Recap »Boxscore » |
Game 3: Wednesday, August 10 | ||
Houston | 3 | Final |
Arizona | 6 | |
Recap »Boxscore » |
Game 4: Thursday, August 11 | ||
Houston | 5 | Final in 10 |
Arizona | 8 | |
Recap »Boxscore » |
Astros 9
(38-78, 19-38 away)
Diamondbacks 11
(63-53, 31-26 home)
9:40 PM ET, August 9, 2011
Chase Field, Phoenix, Arizona
PHOENIX -- Justin Upton kept his cool and was able to provide the spark the Arizona Diamondbacks needed.
Upton had three hits, including a home run, and drove in four runs and the Diamondbacks rallied from a six-run deficit to beat the Houston Astros 11-9 on Tuesday night."I've been awful for a week now," Upton said. "I wasn't seeing the ball all that well but tonight I was seeing it better."Upton wasn't seeing eye-to-eye with home plate umpire C.B. Bucknor. He was discussing a pitch Bucknor called for a strike before Upton lined out to first base for the final out of the third inning.Upton slammed his helmet while walking away from the plate and later in the game dropped his head in his hands after a pitch to Chris Young."I didn't think things were going our way and I got a little upset about it," Upton said. "These things happen."Arizona manager Kirk Gibson gave Upton credit for knowing where to draw the line to stay in the game."I told him he had two choices," Gibson said. "Do what you need to do but don't get in a bad confrontation. We don't want to lose him for more than a game and who knows, maybe he can come back and win it for us."Gerardo Parra had his fourth career four-hit game, Miguel Montero doubled and had three RBIs and Willie Bloomquist added a two-run single for the Diamondbacks.Micah Owings (6-0) threw three innings of two-hit relief and allowed one run for the victory. He struck out four and added a single. J.J. Putz allowed a run and three hits in the ninth for his 27th save."Just leave us where we were at, that was my focus," Owings said.Brian Bogusevic and Jimmy Paredes hit their first career home runs for the Astros, who have lost four of five. Wilton Lopez (2-5) allowed Upton's go-ahead two-run homer in an inning of relief."There were a lot of positives because of the hits and runs but they were able to dig back into the game and keep on scoring," Astros manager Brad Mills said.The Diamondbacks scored eight runs in the fifth and sixth innings to overcome a 7-1 deficit, matching the largest rally in franchise history."That game was exhausting," Gibson said with a slight smile.Parra, Owings and Bloomquist led off the fifth with consecutive singles to load the bases against Jordan Lyles. One out later Upton doubled off the wall in left, scoring Parra and Owings, and Montero followed with a two-run single to make it 7-5."I thought I threw the ball where I wanted to for the most part but they happened to hit it over a couple of guys' heads," Lyles said. "At the same time I can't give up a big lead like that making pitches or not. I can't let it happen."Bloomquist tied the game in the sixth with a one-out, two-run single and Upton homered to give the Diamondbacks a 9-7 lead.Paredes homered with two outs in the seventh to cut the lead to 9-8. Diamondbacks reliever David Hernandez let the first two batters reach and loaded the bases with two outs but struck out the side to escape the jam.Ryan Roberts and Kelly Johnson had RBI doubles in the eighth for Arizona.Jason Marquis struggled in his second straight start since being acquired by the Diamondbacks from Washington on July 30. Marquis allowed seven runs -- four earned -- and nine hits with two walks and two strikeouts over four innings."Obviously things didn't turn out the way I wanted them to but the team battled," Marquis said. "I have to do a better job of putting batters away when I'm in control of the count. I'm not trying to put too much pressure on myself. I just want to go out there and pitch the way I have all year."Upton singled and scored on a double by Montero to give the Diamondbacks a 1-0 lead in the first. Houston tied the game on the second on three singles, the last a run-scoring infield hit by Humberto Quintero.The Astros added three in the third on Martinez's one-out homer, his second in as many nights, and Bogusevic's two-run homer.Lee hit a two-run single in the fourth and Bogusevic doubled to left to extend Houston's lead to 7-1.Lyles allowed seven runs and 12 hits in five-plus innings, both career-highs. He struck out two.Game notes
The Diamondbacks have rallied from six-run deficits twice this season, both against Houston. After the game, the Astros optioned LHP Wesley Wright to Triple-A Oklahoma to make room for Wednesday's starting pitcher, RHP Henry Sosa, who will be recalled from Triple-A before the game. Marquis has a 12.38 ERA in two starts for Arizona. The Diamondbacks play their next 15 games against non-division opponents. Paredes and Bogusevic are the fifth set of teammates since 2005 and first Astros teammates to hit their first career homer in the same game, according to the Elias Sports Bureau. Diamondbacks RHP Josh Collmenter will be looking to end a two-game personal losing streak and win his second straight over the Astros on Wednesday night. Collmenter lasted just 2 1/3 innings in his last start Aug. 5 against Los Angeles, allowing six runs, eight hits and a walk, and has posted a 16.50 ERA in his past two starts.
Copyright by STATS LLC and The Associated Press
Regular Season Series
Scoring Summary
1st | M Montero doubled to deep left, J Upton scored. | 0 | 1 | |
2nd | H Quintero reached on infield single to shortstop, B Bogusevic scored, J Paredes to second. | 1 | 1 | |
3rd | J Martinez homered to left (383 feet). | 2 | 1 | |
3rd | B Bogusevic homered to center (429 feet), C Lee scored. | 4 | 1 | |
4th | C Lee singled to left center, J Altuve and J Martinez scored, C Lee to second advancing on throw. | 6 | 1 | |
4th | B Bogusevic doubled to deep center, C Lee scored. | 7 | 1 | |
5th | J Upton doubled to deep left, G Parra and M Owings scored, W Bloomquist to third. | 7 | 3 | |
5th | M Montero singled to right, W Bloomquist and J Upton scored. | 7 | 5 | |
6th | W Bloomquist singled to center, P Goldschmidt and G Parra scored, W Bloomquist to second advancing on throw. | 7 | 7 | |
6th | J Upton homered to left center (440 feet), W Bloomquist scored. | 7 | 9 | |
7th | J Paredes homered to right (392 feet). | 8 | 9 | |
8th | R Roberts doubled to right center, W Bloomquist scored. | 8 | 10 | |
8th | K Johnson doubled to right, R Roberts scored, M Montero to third. | 8 | 11 | |
9th | C Barmes hit a ground rule double to deep left, J Paredes scored, H Quintero to third. | 9 | 11 | |
View complete Play-By-Play |
Game Information
Stadium | Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ |
Attendance | 17,814 (36.6% full) - % is based on regular season capacity |
Game Time | 3:13 |
Weather | indoors |
Umpires | Home Plate - C.B. Bucknor, First Base - Dan Iassogna, Second Base - Dale Scott, Third Base - Jerry Meals |


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Men characterize pornography as something mental because their minds, their thoughts, their dreams, their fantasies, are more real to them than women's bodies or lives; in fact, men have used their social power to characterize a $10-billion-a-year trade in women as fantasy.
Pornography is the essential sexuality of male power: of hate, of ownership, of hierarchy; of sadism, of dominance.
Pornography incarnates male supremacy. It is the DNA of male dominance. Every rule of sexual abuse, every nuance of sexual sadism, every highway and byway of sexual exploitation, is encoded in it.
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Women, for centuries not having access to pornography and now unable to bear looking at the muck on the supermarket shelves, are astonished. Women do not believe that men believe what pornography says about women. But they do. From the worst to the best of them, they do.


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I am searching for William Gaffin Sr. Born 3-10-1785 in New York.He and his wife Mary had 11 Children. 2 of which drowned coming from New York. They came to Ohio in 1814-1816.They settled in Brown Co. Ohio near Ripley. I know that (4) of the children were born in New York. Catherine in Dec 22,1806, Eleanor in 1809,Willard in 1812, William Jr. in 1813-1814. I looking at the 1790 Census of New York that there was No Gaffins listed. But there was a Andrew Guffin listed. I am told that the Gaffins probably came from Albany or Rensenealar County ( not real sure of the spelling) I know that William Gaffin appeared in the 1820 Census of Ohio. All of the Ohio end is Done it just needs to be updated. Any information would be greatly appreciated. |
The William Gaffin Sr. home page
Updated September 5, 2000 |
Timothy Lee Gaffin 5557 Pipers Meadow Drive Columbus, Ohio 43228 United States 614-853-1150 email@example.com |
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Gordon Robertson introduces us to a single mother that couldn't make ends meet and was running out of food for her kids. Learn how CBN Partners were able to make a difference in the lives of this family.
Amy Coleman has a tech industry job she loves, teaching cell phone providers all of the latest technology.
"It's amazing to be able to say that I have this job, and that I've been blessed by this job," says Amy. "There was a point in time when I was unemployed and kept thinking 'how am I going to make ends meet?'"
Amy is a single mother of two in Baton Rouge, Louisiana.
"There were times when we didn't have anything to eat," remembers Amy. "We couldn't make ends meet, no electricity, the water would get cut off and I'd have to go to the neighbors to use their bathtub to bathe my kids. One night, opening the cabinet I had a half a jar of peanut butter, two boxes of Ramen noodles, about a half a gallon of milk left, thinking what do I feed them? Where is it going to come from?"
When it looked like there was nowhere to turn, Amy got a knock on her door. A neighbor gave her a box of food from Operation Blessing partner, Healing Place Church.
"Whenever I put that food into that empty cabinet and I closed the door, I had to go back and open it back up just to see, wow, there's food in my cabinet," says Amy.
Healing Place teams up with Operation Blessing to provide food and household supplies to families who need it most. They distribute hot meals, clothing, and groceries through their "Dreamcenter," which is located in one of the poorest areas of Baton Rouge. That brings a lot of people through their doors, according to pastor Johnny Green.
"We feel like we can meet their needs, their physical needs, then that gives us a platform to meet their spiritual needs," says Johnny. "I really don't think we could do that without Operation Blessing and the trucks and the food."
Amy continued to pick up food from Operation Blessing when she needed it. Her family also became active in the church.
"In the last two years since we've been going to Healing Place Church, I've found God and I have a relationship with Him. And I depend on Him for everything," says Amy.
Today Amy's son serves on the tech team at church, while she volunteers with the single moms ministry, and helps lead the food distribution team. Amy says she's honored to help other single moms in need.
"To be able to bless them with the food that's provided from Operation Blessing and to give them a meal so that their kids' bellies can be full and they can have a plate that they can bring home at night, it's just an amazing turnaround."
"There's so many children that go a day or two without a meal and just knowing that Operation Blessing sees that need and that they're reaching out in every single direction to fill that need is just amazing," says Amy.


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Posted on Feb 3rd 2015 3:30PM
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String Phone
String Phone: "Nico" has a boyfriend who has gone abroad, and she hardly gets through to him on the telephone. She tries calling him repeatedly and gets no answer. Nico soon finds a string phone at an old antique shop, which she purchases for an international cal. Then she gives her boyfriend a call again and again…
Directed by Kazuhito Nakae


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Oracle engineers hardware and software to work together in the cloud and in your data center. For more information about Oracle (NASDAQ:ORCL), visit www.oracle.com.
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Dana Kunze's High Dive Dueling Pirates Show presented by Cox
Dueling Pirates is a High Diving, High Seas Adventure and the fun begins when each of our two famous Pirate Captains have found half of a torn away Treasure map, a map that will lead them to Treasure Island where chests filled with Gold & Jewels are buried in the sand! As our story proceeds both ships are at port and repairs are being made on the ships when slap stick comedy, clown diving, a Plank Diving Contest and eventually high dives from the top of the two ship masts take place to see who shall be the rightful owner of the whole Treasure Map. Performed by World Record Holding High Divers and Gymnasts this show is fun for young and old alike and is an absolute must see!


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Long time coming but here is the 1st chapter of volume 15!
We're still struggling to work through our backlog, so if you're a translator please apply to us if you'd like to help us catch up!
One more chapter to go!
Yozakura Quartet is still awaiting translations.
Two more chapters and then it's all done!
Some good old fashioned Lelouch lookalike getting slapped by Suzaku lookalike in this one.
We have acquired raws for volume 15 and 16 of Yozakura Quartet so once I have translations in hand I plan on working on our backlog. If you're a translator and would like to assist us with that please apply!


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Important Global Message
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Thank you for your patience as we improve our online services.
Marlins Ballpark Resolutions and Agreements
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- 43Promote
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Skins are thin, easy-to-remove, vinyl decals for customizing your laptop . Skins are made from a patented material that eliminates air bubbles and wrinkles for easy application.
Police watch in difiance as a Salvation Army truck attempts to cross this section of flooded roads in my hometown, Horsham, Victoria, Australia.
*Canon EOS "KISS" D/SLR Camera.
1/100, 75mm, F/4, ISO 200
*"Thankyou Society6 for featuring this image!"
Thank you Maggie! Yep, I think i was at the right place, right time! I won't repeat what the Police were saying.............LOL.
Thanks Josrick! Yes, my town is divided into two parts by this river (North/South) & when we get heavy consistant rains, this is generally what happens :(
Great shot, Chris. Commodore looks better than the bog standard Ford Mondeos that our boys have to go around in. How did the truck get on in the end?
Thanks Catherine:) Actually, it was only recently announced by our Government that we are exporting a couple hundred of these Holden Comm0res to the U.S Police Force :) The truck driver was pulled over by Police waiting at the other end..............LOL.
Haha and there were a few stern words no doubt! Hey maybe your Government could send a few Commodores our way too while they're at it. At least we drive on the same side of the road lol :)
Hey guys, the commodore was called a Cadillac Catera a number of years ago around 2000, and they used the current shape here as A Pontiac G8, only seen a few as they only made a few and they made those here, but from what I understand they took the Aussie made 2 dr version (Monaro) you have Chris and exported em I think as a G8 coupe, only a handful around and they look awesome - I only have seen one here and the tail lights disappeared pretty darn quick.....B:)
LOL Catherine :) What they are getting is 3 times better than this commodore. They have signed a contract for Holden "Statesman", very luxury & expensive car! Our Prime Minister is chauffered in one of these :)
Yeah, it is but I don't think the Cops in the U.S will be getting a built in fridge.......LOL. Here's a link to a few photos Catherine, it takes awile to dowload, too many pics:)
Very nice! It looks similar to an Opel Vectra only a bit fancier. Ah sure once they have somewhere to put the donuts they'll be grand lol :)
LOL Bruce. The older models are a lot cheaper now & young teenagers modify them to the hilt! They look great with 18"tyres, mags etc....................I had a purple MKII Cortina until I misjudged a corner & ended up half way on a Gum tree, then the car collapsed to the ground on it's roof. The only section not substantially damaged was mine & luckily I had no-one with me:) They were fast those Cortinas :)
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It used to be, or it still is, that when you refer to a motorcycle, the consensus is that one would envision at least a 750cc machine. A crotch rocket if you will. One of those from Honda or Ducati, or if you're really picky (and have a tree sprouting money in your backyard), a magnificently gorgeous Buell. Yes, those that
race really fast on pavement tracks, not unlike the daredevils who clock way upwards of 300km/h (yes, three hundred) at the Isle of Mann GP. Maybe that's why Cavendish is so fast, dude grew up conditioned to seeing motorcycle drivers, "pilots" actually, risking their bones at that famous race. I'd also suggest that some could just as well conjure an image of a chopper, with a "biker" astride its custom handmade seat, donning shiny leather chaps, and further whatnots. On the other hand, few would say "yes, of course – a moto. I'd love to parade around on a Puch, or a Lambretta; those are certain to attract me some ladies." However you imagine a motorcycle, its shape, image and engine grumble will largely depend on the area you grew up in. To me, for instance, a moto comes in the form of the aforementioned crotch rocket: slick, potentially dangerous, considerably aero and most importantly, very fast. Not a chopper. Not a Lambretta either.
"It was very common, or better yet, not uncommon, to be thrown out of a race by vocally cursing a commissary."
Spring of 1990 or 1991, can't quite recall. We did a lot of racing, the junior fields were generally numerous; most of the races were consisted of either out-and-back stretches with a rotary on top (imagine a lollipop), or circuitous venues that required skills and consistent accelerations. They were similar to crits actually – but not quite. And as in most races, we had the commissaries on motorcycles making sure nobody was doing sneaky stuff. For road races we had police detail with the required big motos, actual patrol machines that were large and had chromed parts and were very pretty. For local circuit events, the officials would ride a slightly better variation of those Puchs, maybe a souped-up Lambretta scooter. The problem was, many juniors started in the sport really early and already had big boy skills, in other words: the boys moved fast and could easily handle the push-and-shove, including jumping on and off the sidewalk to move up (which was not allowed) and further stunts. And the motos didn't. Meaning, put a race official in one of those little things through corners that lead to steep, short hills, up, left, down a stretch, right, left, right, etc., and the motos would become a hindrance. The combo commissary + put-put horsepower made it so it lingered, moving a tad slower out of corners and up short inclines. As you may figure, its involuntary pauses in rhythm infuriated the racers, the accordion effect would be multiplied as we tried to ride around the scooter or push it out of the way. It was very common, or better yet, not uncommon, to be thrown out of a race by vocally cursing a commissary.
"I felt slightly put off, damn Belgian stealing my lines, then I realized that my sport was actually our sport."
Every cycling community has its bad-asses. They come in several forms: tall, short, lanky, thick, skinny, the engines within betraying a seemingly bad posish or not so fluid pedal stroke. Some of them look horrible on the bike, but can make you pay for questioning his/her lack of style or grace. Those are the folks whose innate power would have you wonder where is all that speed coming from. In my junior days we'd refer to that as "riding like a motorcycle". It did not matter if your head iconized a Puch scooter or a Honda Ninja; the assumption was that a motorcycle is faster than you, so it always came as a compliment. We felt so smart in our world of nicknames and clever associations, that we claimed many of those aphorisms as ours and ours alone. Till a few years later, when I was watching the 1995 Tour de France. Miguelón, then a 4-time winner, perhaps was irritated at the media for accusing him of passive racing, decided to take the matter on his own legs. On the first week of the Tour, which is generally reserved for bunch gallops, he attacked hard on the closing kilometers of a flat stage. "What the hell is he doing?" I thought. It was something else to watch his big frame TT'ing at 50km/hr-plus and leaving everybody in the dust. That is, except for a plucky Belgian (unironically, Mr. Johan Bruyneel) who was glued to his rear wheel and had just enough "juice" in the last few meters to come around and win the stage. Later on, during post-race interviews, he mentioned feeling like he was "riding behind a motorcycle." EXCUSE ME? Sorry, sir, that is my analogy. I felt slightly put off, damn Belgian stealing my lines, then I realized that my sport was actually our sport. And that general terms reserved for extraordinary feats of strength can only mean so many things. It's not like in other countries they don't have motorcycles, or that Bruyneel would refer to him as going as fast as, well, a Siberian Husky-pulled sled? A rapidly-moving… Tank engine? Please.
As a junior I never really got thrown out of a race for cursing an official. And the very few times when I was riding well enough to do most of the pulling, my training partners would praise the speed as "riding like a moto". It was nice to hear that, imagining myself as a crotch rocket when in reality I was more of a Lambretta due to the slight build. But I still attracted the ladies.


text: TOP 10 Top 10 Fitness Top 10: Fall Fitness Resolutions Back to Top ▲ Top 10: Fall Fitness Resolutions 8 Keep Running Outside Share on Facebook Share on Twitter 0 Shares ASICS Ever notice how as soon as summer weather kicks in, the number of joggers you see out and about rises exponentially? That's because some dedicated fitness fanatics switch the thrill and dynamism of running outside with the monotony of a treadmill as soon as the leaves change color. Don't let that be the case this year: Pick up a pair of ASICS GEL-Blur33 sneakers, some cold-weather workout gear and get outside. Next Page TOP 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Comments Show Comments More Like This Promoted Around the Web Special Features


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Your Pop Alternative Source
It would be awesome to get signed to the label,
My fans would love to see it, Now over 100 people have retweeted my tweet to the Cherrytree twitter. It has been my dream to sign to your label. I love your artists from LMFAO to Collette Carr and now it seems T.A.T.U. is signed with you which is AMAZING.
Hi Kelvin :) My name is Niall Higgins and i'm an incredibly talented, 16 year old singer/songwriter from SA. If you have a minute or two, please take a listen to few of my demo songs on my profile, or you can watch me on YouTube here: http://www.youtube.com/user/3942niallhiggins?feature=guide Thank you so much! :)
Kelvin! hii how r you doing? my name is Riley and I wanted to tel u about an Aussie singer that I luv and want u to hear! www.youtube.com/musiKELSity
shez from austealia like me!!! and i love her!!! take a listen, her name is kelsy
is jimmy rocket working at cherrytree?
he is an amazing songwriter
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you would be a great team
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is jimmy rocket going to be at the cherry tree tour?
Jimmy Rocket it's amazing
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i can't wait to see him on the cherrytree tour
where can i buy jimmy rocket music?
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