text:
Abrupt Changes of Primary Concern
The following section describes potential abrupt climate changes that are of primary concern, either because they are currently believed to be the most likely and the most impactful, because they are predicted to potentially cause severe impacts but with uncertain likelihood, or because they are considered to be unlikely to occur but have been widely discussed in the literature or media. As such, the Committee did not attempt to create a comprehensive catalog of potential abrupt changes. As described in the Introduction, this section examines both abrupt climate changes in the physical climate system itself and abrupt climate impacts in physical, biological, or human systems that are triggered by a steadily changing climate.
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)—characterized by warm surface waters flowing northward and cold deep waters flowing southward throughout the Atlantic basin—is defined as the zonal integral of the northward mass flux at a particular latitude. The deep limb of this overturning circulation carries waters that are formed via convection in the Nordic and Labrador Seas (Figure 2.1). Collectively, these waters constitute North Atlantic Deep Water, which is exported to the global ocean at depths between about 1000 and 4000 m. The southward-flowing deep limb of the overturning circulation is compensated by an upper limb of northward-flowing surface waters, which head to the Nordic and Labrador Seas to replenish the regions of convection. Together, the upper and lower limbs of the overturning circulation produce a poleward flux of heat that has strong global and regional impacts. The AMOC also plays an important role in the transport of carbon in the Atlantic. Thus, variability in the AMOC's strength is of much interest, as a diminishment or strengthening would impact the ocean's effectiveness as a heat and carbon reservoir.
Examinations of paleoclimate temperatures and other variables recorded in both North Atlantic ocean sediments and Greenland ice cores (e.g., Lehman and Keigwin, 1992; Alley et al., 1993; Taylor et al., 1993) have led to suggestions that the AMOC
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Abrupt Changes of
Primary Concern
he following section describes potential abrupt climate changes that are of
primary concern, either because they are currently believed to be the most likely
and the most impactful, because they are predicted to potentially cause severe
impacts but with uncertain likelihood, or because they are considered to be unlikely to
occur but have been widely discussed in the literature or media. As such, the Commit-
tee did not attempt to create a comprehensive catalog of potential abrupt changes. As
described in the Introduction, this section examines both abrupt climate changes in
the physical climate system itself and abrupt climate impacts in physical, biological, or
human systems that are triggered by a steadily changing climate.
Abrupt Changes in the Ocean
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)—characterized by warm
surface waters flowing northward and cold deep waters flowing southward through-
out the Atlantic basin—is defined as the zonal integral of the northward mass flux at
a particular latitude. The deep limb of this overturning circulation carries waters that
are formed via convection in the Nordic and Labrador Seas (Figure 2.1). Collectively,
these waters constitute North Atlantic Deep Water, which is exported to the global
ocean at depths between about 1000 and 4000 m. The southward-flowing deep limb
of the overturning circulation is compensated by an upper limb of northward-flowing
surface waters, which head to the Nordic and Labrador Seas to replenish the regions
of convection. Together, the upper and lower limbs of the overturning circulation pro-
duce a poleward flux of heat that has strong global and regional impacts. The AMOC
also plays an important role in the transport of carbon in the Atlantic. Thus, variability
in the AMOC's strength is of much interest, as a diminishment or strengthening would
impact the ocean's effectiveness as a heat and carbon reservoir.
Examinations of paleoclimate temperatures and other variables recorded in both
North Atlantic ocean sediments and Greenland ice cores (e.g., Lehman and Keigwin,
1992; Alley et al., 1993; Taylor et al., 1993) have led to suggestions that the AMOC
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abrupt impacts of climate chang E
FIGURE 2.1 Schematic of the major warm (red to yellow) and cold (blue to purple) water pathways in the
North Atlantic subpolar gyre. Acronyms not in the text: Denmark Strait (DS); Faroe Bank Channel (FBC);
East and West Greenland Currents (EGC, WGC); North Atlantic Current (NAC); DSO (Denmark Straits Over-
flow); ISO (Iceland-Scotland Overflow). Figure courtesy of H. Furey (WHOI).
abruptly changed in the past. Following on this examination, questions have arisen as
to the possible likelihood of an abrupt change in the future.
The Stability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
Climate and Earth system models are used to understand potential changes in the
AMOC, including potential feedbacks in the system, although the representation of
unresolved physics (such as the parameterization of ocean mixing) could potentially
be of concern in long, centennial simulations. Because saltier water is denser and thus
more likely to sink, the transport of salt poleward into the North Atlantic provides
a potentially destabilizing advective feedback to the AMOC (Stommel, 1961); i.e., a
reduction in the strength of the AMOC would lead to less salt being transported into
the North Atlantic, and hence a further reduction in the AMOC would ensue. As noted
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Abrupt Changes of Primary Concern
by Rahmstorf (1996), the presence of this slow salt-advection feedback is critical to the
existence of stable multiple equilibria.
Climate and Earth system models have been used to investigate the stability of the
AMOC, in particular the number of stable states that the system can exist in, which is
an important characteristic to know for fully understanding the climate system. Care-
fully designed non-linear modeling experiments using Earth system Models of Inter-
mediate Complexity (EMICs; and also the FAMOUS AOGCM; Hawkins et al., 2011) have
revealed a model-dependent threshold beyond which an active AMOC cannot be
sustained (Rahmstorf et al., 2005; see Figure 2.2). However, analysis of the AMOC in the
models that submitted simulations in support of the third phase of the Community
Model Intercomparison Project1 (CMIP3; Meehl et al., 2007a) suggested that the CMIP3
models were overly stable (Drijfhout et al., 2011; Hofmann and Rahmstorf, 2009), i.e.,
that an abrupt change in the AMOC was not likely to be simulated in the models even
if it were to be likely in reality.
Several studies (de Vries and Weber, 2005; Dijkstra, 2007; Weber et al., 2007; Huisman
et al., 2010; Drijfhout et al., 2011; and Hawkins et al., 2011) have suggested that the
sign of the net freshwater flux into the Atlantic across its southern boundary via the
overturning circulation determines whether or not the AMOC is in a monostable or
bistable regime. Observations suggest that the present day ocean resides in a bistable
regime, thereby allowing for multiple equilibria and a stable "off" state of the AMOC
(Hawkins et al., 2011). By examining the preindustrial control climate of the CMIP3
models, Drijfhout et al. (2011) found that the salt flux was mostly negative (implying
a positive freshwater flux), indicating that these models were mostly in a monostable
regime. This was not the case in the CMIP5 models where Weaver et al. (2012) found
that 40 percent of the models were in a bistable regime throughout their integrations.
Although this question of the number of stable states of the system is important for
a complete understanding of the climate system, it is important to emphasize that
regardless of this stability question, the CMIP5 models also show no evidence of an
abrupt collapse for the 21st century.
In addition to the main threshold for a complete breakdown of the circulation, other
thresholds may exist that involve more-limited changes, such as a cessation or dimin-
ishment of Labrador Sea deep water formation (Wood et al., 1999). Rapid melting of
the Greenland ice sheet causes increases in freshwater runoff, potentially weakening
the AMOC. None of the CMIP5 simulations include an interactive ice sheet compo-
nent. However, Jungclaus et al. (2006), with parameterized freshwater melt as high
1 http://www-pcmdi.llnl.gov/ipcc/about_ipcc.php.
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FIGURE 2.2 Schematic diagram illustrating the hysteresis behavior of the equilibrium strength of the
AMOC in response to the addition of a North Atlantic surface freshwater perturbation of variable magni-
tude. Positive values indicate the sustained addition of freshwater to the surface; negative values indicate
the sustained subtraction of freshwater from the surface; the zero value corresponds to the present-day
situation. The two upper heavy branches indicate the possibility of multiple states with different convec-
tion sites. Transitions between stable equilibria of the AMOC with and without active deepwater forma-
tion are indicated by: (a) transition associated with slow advective instability, (b) transition associated with
fast convective instability, and (d) initiation of convection and subsequent spin-up of North Atlantic Deep
Water (NADW) formation. The S indicates the point beyond which a stable equilibrium with active NADW
formation cannot exist. (c) indicates a possible transition between active modes of NADW formation with
different location of convection.
Note: Hysteresis is defined as "a lag in response exhibited by a body in reacting to changes in forces"
(Random House Kernerman Webster's College Dictionary) and is used in many fields such as engineer-
ing, economics, biology, etc. to refer to a system that depends on the current but also past environmental
SOURCE: Rahmstorf, 1999.
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Abrupt Changes of Primary Concern
as 0.09 Sv, and Hu et al. (2009), using the NCAR Community Climate System Model
(CCSM) with year 2000 initial parameterized freshwater melt of 0.01 Sv increasing at
a rate of 1 percent/year, 3 percent/year and 7 percent/year, as well as Mikolajewicz
et al. (2007) and Driesschaert et al. (2007), using coupled ice-sheet/climate models,
found only a slight temporary effect of increased melt water fluxes on the AMOC. The
impact of these fluxes on the AMOC was generally small compared to the effect of
enhanced poleward atmospheric moisture transport and ocean surface warming; or it
was only noticeable in the most extreme scenarios. But this point needs to be further
While many more model simulations were conducted in support of the IPCC AR5
(Collins et al., 2012) under a wide range of forcing scenarios, projections of the behav-
ior of the AMOC over the 21st century and beyond have changed little from what was
reported in the IPCC AR4 (Meehl et al., 2007b). In the case of the CMIP5 models, Weaver
et al. (2012) showed that the behavior of the AMOC was similar over the 21st century
under four very different radiative forcing scenarios (RCP 2.6; RCP4.5; RCP 6.0; RCP8.5—
these Representative Concentration Pathways [RCPs] are detailed in Moss et al., 2010).
All models found a 21st century weakening of the AMOC with a multi-model average
of 22 percent for RCP2.6, 26 percent for RCP4.5, 29 percent for RCP6.0 and 40 percent
for RCP8.5. While two of the models eventually realized a slow shutdown of the AMOC
under RCP8.5 (the scenario with the largest amount of warming), none exhibited an
abrupt change of the AMOC.
The similarity of the model responses despite the widely varying transports of salt
into the North Atlantic across its southern boundary (and hence sign and magnitude
of the salt advection feedback) suggests that like the CMIP3 models (Gregory et al.,
2005), the reduction of the AMOC in the global warming experiments performed by
the CMIP5 models is mainly driven by local changes in surface thermal flux rather
than surface freshwater flux. North Atlantic surface warming decreases water density
there, thus reducing the rate of sinking. In addition, as noted above, none of the CMIP
models incorporated the additional freshwater effects of ice sheet melting. This is an
important caveat since asymmetric freshwater forcing is capable of initiating a fast,
convective instability that could cause the AMOC to abruptly shut down if it were in
a bistable regime and suitably close to its stability threshold. This would explain why
abrupt changes of the AMOC appear to be pervasive features of the paleoclimate re-
cord when vast reservoirs of freshwater were available in the form of ice and proglacial
lakes on land.
A question that needs to be further addressed is the extent to which projected
changes in Greenland ice sheet melting could affect the amount and location of
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freshwater release into the North Atlantic and hence the subsequent evolution of the
AMOC. As noted in Meehl et al. (2007b) it is very unlikely that the AMOC will undergo
an abrupt transition or collapse in the 21st century. Delworth et al. (2008) pointed
out that for an abrupt transition of the AMOC to occur, the sensitivity of the AMOC to
forcing would have to be far greater than that seen in current models. Alternatively,
significant ablation of the Greenland ice sheet greatly exceeding even the most ag-
gressive of current projections would be required. As noted in the ice sheet section
later in this chapter, Greenland ice has about 7.3m equivalent of sea level rise, which, if
melted over 1000 years, yields an annual rise rate of 7 mm/yr, about 2 times faster just
from Greenland than today's rate from all sources, and more than 10 times faster than
the rate from Greenland over 2000–2011 (Shepherd et al., 2012). Although neither pos-
sibility can be excluded entirely, it is unlikely that the AMOC will collapse before the
end of the 21st century because of global warming.
Observations of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
Recent observational studies have focused on ascertaining two questions of relevance
to the AMOC response to climate change: What is the impact of variable North Atlan-
tic Deep Water production on the ocean's meridional overturning? And, what is the
current state of the AMOC and its variability? Studies relevant to both questions are
briefly reviewed here (material drawn from Lozier, 2012).
Though many modeling studies have demonstrated the impact of deep water forma-
tion changes on the overturning circulation, the observational evidence for such a
linkage has been hard to come by for two reasons: (1) Deep water formation is difficult
to quantify because the time and locale of production are highly variable from winter
to winter, and (2) overturning circulation measures require observations that span the
basin, which have been limited in space and time. Because of this second difficulty, a
measure of the Deep Western Boundary Current (DWBC) transport has traditionally
been considered a shortcut to the measure of the AMOC: while the upper limb of the
AMOC was considered inextricably linked to the much more energetic wind-driven
circulation, the lower limb was considered to be "channeled" through the DWBC.
An opportunity to assess the linkage between deep water formation variability and
DWBC changes was afforded by the deployment of a moored array east of the Grand
Banks (Clarke et al., 1998; Meinen et al., 2000; Schott et al., 2006). In an extensive analy-
sis of the time series from these two deployments, Schott et al. (2006) found that the
transport rates of Labrador Sea Water (LSW) over these two time periods were remark-
ably similar despite the large differences in convective activity in the Labrador Sea
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Abrupt Changes of Primary Concern
during the two time periods: the earlier time period was marked by strong convective
activity, while LSW production was considerably weaker during the latter time period
(Lazier et al., 2002). This result raised questions about the responsiveness of the AMOC
to changes in deep water production; however, the linkage could not be conclusively
ruled out because of increasing indications that the DWBC was not the sole conduit
for the passage of deep waters to the lower latitudes (Schott et al., 2006). And in fact,
recent observational (Lavender et al., 2000; Fischer and Schott, 2002; Bower et al., 2009)
and modeling studies (Gary et al., 2011; Lozier et al., 2010) of subsurface floats have
revealed that the DWBC is not the sole, and perhaps not even the dominant, conduit
for the transport of the waters within the deep limb of the AMOC. Thus, a measure of
the DWBC is no longer considered a sufficient monitor of AMOC changes.
For a full accounting of the AMOC and its variability, it is now understood that trans-
basin measurements of transport are necessary. Attempts to understand trans-basin
AMOC variability over the modern observational record traditionally have had to rely
on indirect estimates assessed from hydrography. Bryden et al. (2005) used five repeat
surveys at 25°N from 1957 to 2004 to show that the overturning slowed by 30 percent
over the period of the surveys, an astounding and unanticipated change over such a
relatively short time. However, an assessment of transports at 48°N using five repeat
World Ocean Circulation Experiment sections and air-sea heat and freshwater fluxes as
input to an inverse box model yielded no significant trend in the meridional overturn-
ing at that latitude (Lumpkin et al., 2008), though the time period studied was rela-
tively short (1993-2000).
In 2004 an observational system was put in place to provide the first continuous
measure of the AMOC (Cunningham et al., 2007). The RAPID/MOCHA program (Rapid
Climate Change/Meridional Overturning Circulation and Heatflux Array) comprises in-
struments deployed along a section at 25°N stretching from the North American con-
tinent to the west coast of Africa. After just one year of measurements, the conceptual
understanding of overturning variability changed dramatically. As seen in Figure 2.3,
the overturning strength changed six-fold from April of 2004 to April of 2005, from a
minimum of ~5 Sv to a maximum of ~30 Sv. With the demonstrated intraseasonal vari-
ability, synoptic sections were now understood to be inadequate to capture measures
of interannual transport variability. The continuation of the time series has revealed
a strong seasonality (Rayner et al., 2011) that dominates the record, as well as strong
intrannual variability (McCarthy et al., 2012).
Unfortunately, the strong intraseasonal variability of the AMOC revealed by the
RAPID/MOCHA array seriously constrains our ability to recreate AMOC variability
over the modern observational period, since synoptic hydrographic sections are the
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FIGURE 2.3 Time series of the meridional overturning transport at 26° N from the RAPID/MOCHA array.
The meridional overturning circulation (MOC) is computed from the sum of the Gulf Stream transport
through the Florida Straits, directly measured via electromagnetic cables; the Ekman transport, estimated
from QuikSCAT winds; and the midocean geostrophic transport, estimated from the moored array instru-
ments. Importantly, this time series demonstrates the significant interannual transport variability. SOURCE:
Rayner et al., 2011.
only past trans-basin measurements. Furthermore, as detailed in a recent review by
Cunningham and Marsh (2010), modeling estimates have been unable to help in this
regard: there is currently no consensus on the strength of the AMOC in assimilation/
re-analysis products, and ocean general circulation models are in disagreement about
the strength and variability of the AMOC. Indeed, an active area of research within the
climate modeling community is focused on the cause for such wide ranges of AMOC
estimates from state estimates that are drawing from the same observational data-
bases (U.S. CLIVAR Project Office, 2011) and in ocean simulations forced with the same
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Abrupt Changes of Primary Concern
atmospheric conditions (e.g., Danabasoglu et al., 2013). It is important to note that
the models run for the IPCC discussed above also have varying AMOC strength and
interannual variability, yet they are in agreement on a lack of abrupt change for the
21st century.
In lieu of consistent model estimates, proxy measures of the overturning derived from
satellite altimetry and Argo float data are appealing, but to date these measures have
been limited to latitudes of steep topography on the western boundary (Willis, 2010),
and are of limited duration to provide a temporal context of decades. Thus, to date
direct AMOC observations are limited to one latitude (26°N), and past measures of
change remain elusive. Although the RAPID array is providing unprecedented mea-
surements, recent modeling and data analysis studies (Bingham et al., 2007; Baehr et
al., 2009; Lozier et al., 2010; Biastoch et al., 2008a; Biastoch et al., 2008b) reveal gyre-
specific measures of the AMOC, suggesting that the AMOC variability measured by the
RAPID array cannot safely be assumed representative of AMOC variability outside of
the North Atlantic subtropical basin.
Summary and the Way Forward
Although models do not indicate that AMOC is likely to change abruptly in the com-
ing decades, it is important to monitor the North Atlantic to confirm the understand-
ing of how AMOC responds to a changing climate. Observational studies over the past
decade or so reveal a meridional overturning circulation with a tenuous link to the
production of deep water masses via local overturning at high latitudes in the North
Atlantic. However, the deep ocean remains vastly undersampled, particularly so with
respect to measures appropriate for the calculation of AMOC variability. To ascertain
with confidence the extent to which deep water production impacts the ocean's
meridional circulation and hence the ocean's contributions to the global poleward
heat flux, continuous measures of trans-basin mass and heat transports are needed.
Although such measurements are underway with the RAPID/MOCHA array, the stud-
ies cited above have made it increasingly clear that AMOC fluctuations are coherent
over only limited meridional distances: break points in coherence occur at key lati-
tudes, in particular at the subpolar/subtropical gyre boundary in the North Atlantic.
Therefore, a transoceanic line in the subpolar North Atlantic, currently being planned
by the international community, that measures the net contributions of the overflow
waters from the Nordic Seas as well as those from the Labrador Sea, to the AMOC,
would directly test the legitimacy of the decades-long supposition that variability in
North Atlantic Deep Water production translates into meridional overturning vari-
ability (Figure 2.4). This measurement system would—in conjunction with the RAPID/
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Figure 2.4 Existing and proposed monitoring locations for the Atlantic Ocean. Source: Adapted from
Schiermeier, 2013.
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MOCHA array—provide a means to evaluate intergyre connectivity within the North
Atlantic and allow for a determination of how and whether deep water mass forma-
tion impacts overturning and poleward heat and freshwater transports throughout
the North Atlantic. Additionally, such an observing system, by measuring the temporal
and spatial variability of the AMOC for approximately a decade, would provide essen-
tial ground truth to AMOC model estimates and would also yield insight into whether
AMOC changes or other atmospheric/oceanic variability have the dominant impact on
interannual sea surface temperature (SST) variability. To make clear assessments of the
AMOC's response to anthropogenic climate change, it is expected that a multi-decadal
observing system will be necessary. An observing system serving this purpose would
be one where a few critical in situ observations, coupled with satellite observations
and the Argo float array, provide a reliable and sustainable measure of the AMOC for
decades to come.
Ice Sheets and Sea Level
Based on both simple physics and observations of the past, there is high confidence
in the conclusion that sea level rises in response to warming. Sea-level rise can have
large impacts (e.g., Nicholls et al., 2007), such as damage to or loss of infrastructure
near coasts, loss of freshwater supplies, and displacement of people whose homes are
lost to a rising ocean. Although sea-level rise typically is slow compared to many en-
vironmental changes, even this type of gradual sea-level rise may force other systems
to cross thresholds and trigger abrupt impacts for natural or human systems unless
adaptive measures are taken. For example, rising sea level increases the likelihood
that a storm surge will overtop a levee or damage other coastal infrastructure, such as
coastal roads, sewage treatment plants, or gas lines—all with potentially large, expen-
sive, and immediate consequences (Nordhaus, 2010). (See Box 2.1 for discussion of
vulnerabilities of US coastal infrastructure.)
A separate but key question is whether sea-level rise itself can be large, rapid and
widespread. In this regard, rate of change is assessed relative to the rate of societal
adaptation. Available scientific understanding does not answer this question fully, but
observations and modeling studies do show that a much faster sea-level rise than that
observed recently (~3 mm/yr over recent decades) is possible (Cronin, 2012). Rates
peaked more than 10 times faster in Meltwater Pulse 1A during the warming from
the most recent ice age, a time with more ice on the planet to contribute to the sea-
level rise, but slower forcing than the human-caused rise in CO2 (Figure 2.5 and 2.6).
One could term a rise "rapid" if the response or adaptation time is significantly longer
than the rise time. For example, a rise rate of 15 mm/yr (within the range of projec-
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3. Interaction of pressures induced directly by climate change with non-climatic
anthropogenic factors, such as habitat fragmentation, overharvesting, or eutro-
phication, that magnify the extinction risk for a given species—for example, the
checkerspot butterfly subspecies Euphydryas editha bayensis became extinct in the
San Francisco Bay area as housing developments destroyed most of their habitat,
followed by a few years of locally unfavorable climate conditions in their last ref-
uge at Jasper Ridge, California (McLaughlin et al., 2002).
4. Climate-induced change in biotic interactions, such as loss of mutualist partner
species, increases in disease or pest incidence, phenological mismatches, or tro-
phic cascades through food webs after decline of a keystone species. Such effects
can be intertwined with the intersection of extinction pressures noted in mecha-
nism 3 above. In fact, the disappearance of checkerspot butterflies from Jasper
Ridge was because unusual precipitation events altered the timing of overlap of
the butterfly larvae and their host plants (McLaughlin et al., 2002).
Mass extinctions are generally defined as times when more than 75 percent of the known
species of animals with fossilizable hard parts (shells, scales, bones, teeth, and so on) become
extinct in a geologically short period of time (Barnosky et al., 2011; Harnik et al., 2012; Raup
and Sepkoski, 1982). Several authors suggest that the extinction crisis is already so severe, even
without climate change included as a driver, that a mass extinction of species is plausible within
decades to centuries. This possible extinction event is commonly called the "Sixth Mass Extinc-
tion," because biodiversity crashes of similar magnitude have happened previously only five
times in the 550 million years that multi- cellular life has been abundant on Earth: near the end
of the Ordovician (~443 million years ago), Devonian (~359 million years ago), Permian (251 mil-
lion years ago), Triassic (~200 million years ago), and Cretaceous (~66 million years ago) Periods.
Only one of the past "Big Five" mass extinctions (the dinosaur extinction event at the end of the
Cretaceous) is thought to have occurred as rapidly as would be the case if currently observed
extinctions rates were to continue at their present high rate (Alvarez et al., 1980; Barnosky et
al., 2011; Robertson et al., 2004; Schulte et al., 2010), but the minimal span of time over which
past mass extinctions actually took place is impossible to determine, because geological dating
typically has error bars of tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands of years. After each mass
extinction, it took hundreds of thousands to millions of years for biodiversity to build back up
to pre-crash levels.
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These dangers of extinction from climate change are well documented for mammals,
birds, reptiles, amphibians (Foden et al., 2013; Pimm, 2009; Sinervo et al., 2010), and cor-
als (Hoegh-Guldberg, 1999; Mumby et al., 2007; Pandolfi et al., 2011; Ricke et al., 2013).
Theoretical considerations and some empirical data also indicate that continued
climate change at its present pace would be detrimental to many species of marine
clams and snails, fish, tropical ectotherms, and some species of plants (examples and
citations below). For such species, continuing the present trajectory of climate change
would very likely result in extinction of most, if not all, of their populations by the
end of the 21st century. The likelihood of extinction from climate change is low for
species that have short generation times, produce prodigious numbers of offspring,
and have very large geographic ranges. However, even for such species, the interac-
tion of climate change with habitat fragmentation may cause the extirpation of many
populations. Even local extinctions of keystone species may have major ecological and
economic impacts.
The interaction of climate change with habitat fragmentation has high potential for
causing extinctions of many populations and species within decades (before the year
2100 if not sooner). The paleontological record and historical observations of species
indicate that in the past species have survived climate change by their constituent
populations moving to a climatically suitable area, or, if they cannot move, by evolving
adaptations to the new climate. The present condition of habitat fragmentation limits
both responses under today's shifting climatic regime. More than 43 percent of Earth's
currently ice-free lands have been changed into farms, rangelands, cities, factories,
and roads (Barnosky et al., 2012; Foley et al., 2011; Vitousek et al., 1986, 1997), and in
the oceans many continental-shelf areas have been transformed by bottom trawling
(Halpern et al., 2008; Jackson, 2008; Hoekstra et al., 2010). This extent of habitat de-
struction and fragmentation means that even if individuals of a species can move fast
enough to cope with ongoing climate change, they will have difficulty dispersing into
suitable areas because adequate dispersal corridors no longer exist. If individuals are
confined to climatically unsuitable areas, the likelihood of population decline is en-
hanced, resulting in high likelihood of extinction if population size falls below critical
values, from processes such as random fluctuations in population size (Maurer, 1999)
or Allee effects (Stephens et al., 1999).
These considerations make it very likely that at least some populations and species
would likely go extinct, and even more will likely drop below viable numbers of indi-
viduals within the next few decades simply because they could not disperse across
fragmented landscapes fast enough to keep pace with movement of their required
climate zones. Concerted efforts of human-mediated translocation of species could
help mitigate this, but the practice is still regarded as controversial and experimental
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(McLachlan et al., 2007; Ricciardi and Simberloff, 2009; Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2008; Sax
et al., 2009; Schwartz et al., 2012).
Vulnerabilities of Species to Extinction
The demonstrable vulnerabilities of populations and species to extinction by climate
change fall into three categories.
1. Those whose physiological tolerances to various climatic parameters will be ex-
ceeded by climate change throughout their geographic range.
2. Those that will have their growth, development, reproduction, or survival detri-
mentally impacted by climate change or consequent changes in biotic interac-
tions, resulting in population decline.
3. Those that are effectively trapped by habitat fragmentation in areas where climate
changes detrimentally, even though suitable climatic habitat may exist for them
elsewhere in the world.
Examples of species in Category 1 are: polar bears, which require sea ice in order to
thrive, as their primary hunting strategy to maintain adequate fat reserves is waiting
for seals to emerge from openings in the ice (Derocher et al., 2004); mountain spe-
cies such as pikas (Grayson, 2005; Beever et al., 2011), which cannot survive sustained
temperatures above ~27°C (80°F); endemic Hawaiian silverswords, which are restricted
to cool temperatures at high altitudes and die from moisture stress (Krushelnycky et
al., 2013); and some coral species, which are known to die at ocean temperatures that
are only 0.5-1°C above the maxima experienced prior to 1998 (Hoegh-Guldberg, 1999;
Mumby et al., 2007; Pandolfi et al., 2011).
In Category 2 are many marine species whose growth and development are affected
by calcium and aragonite concentrations in ocean water, which vary with increasing
acidification caused by adding CO2 to the atmosphere. Already exhibiting detrimental
effects are the oyster Crassostrea gigas (Barton et al., 2012; Gazeau et al., 2011) in the
US Pacific Northwest, where warmer, more acidic waters cause the oyster eggs to die
after a few days of apparently normal development. Experimental work, where organ-
isms are reared in waters simulating ocean chemistry expected by the year 2100, also
reveals fatal or potentially detrimental effects on other species, including the oysters
Crassostrea virginica (Miller et al., 2009) and Pinctada fucata (Liu et al., 2012), inland
silverside fish Menidia beryllina (Baumann et al., 2011), Atlantic cod Gadus morhua
(Frommel et al., 2011), sea bass Atractoscion nobilis (Checkley et al., 2009), orange
clown fish Amphiprion percula (Munday et al., 2009), and damsel fish (Pomacentrus
OCR for page 39
Abrupt Changes of Primary Concern
amboinensis) (Ferrari et al., 2012). This effect is predicted to be particularly severe for
coral-forming species (Ricke et al., 2013). Similarly, many plant populations are stressed
by climate change. For example, earlier snowmelt in the Rocky Mountains exposes
plants to increased frost damage, (e.g., Inouye, 2008), and declining summer fog causes
stress to coastal redwoods (Johnstone and Dawson, 2010). Climate change also causes
indirect impacts on plants via outbreaks of pests such as pine bark (Kurz et al., 2008)
and spruce bark beetles (National Climate Assessment and Development Advisory
Committee, 2013; Bentz et al., 2010).
In Category 3 are many species that will probably experience lethal effects in large
parts, but not all, of their geographic ranges. For example, warmer river temperatures
could reduce habitat for trout in the Rocky Mountain West up to 50 percent, and
locally up to 70 percent, by 2100 (Kinsella et al., 2008). Survival for such species will
depend on whether or not viable population sizes will remain in areas where climate
does not change unsuitably, and on the potential of surviving individuals to disperse
from climatically unsuitable areas into regions with favorable climate. Of particular
concern are species now much reduced in numbers of individuals and restricted to
protected habitat islands, such as national parks, that are surrounded by human-
dominated landscapes where survival of the affected species is not possible without
changing societal norms (Early and Sax, 2011).
Plausible vulnerabilities are potentially more severe than the demonstrable vulner-
abilities. Of primary concern are probabilities of novel and disappearing combinations
of climatic parameters (Williams and Jackson, 2007). Novel climates are those that are
created by combinations of temperature, precipitation, seasonality, weather extremes,
etc., that exist nowhere on Earth today. Disappearing climates are combinations of cli-
mate parameters that will no longer be found anywhere on the planet. Modeling stud-
ies suggest that by the year 2100, between 12 percent and 39 percent of the planet
will have developed novel climates, and current climates will have disappeared from
10 percent to 48 percent of Earth's surface (Williams et al., 2007). These changes will be
most prominent in what are today's most important reservoirs of biodiversity (includ-
ing the Amazon, discussed in more detail in the "Abrupt Changes in Ecosystems" sec-
tion above) and if they result in loss of critical aspects of species' ecological niches, a
large number of extinctions would result. Other circumstances that have high plausi-
bility of accelerating extinctions include climatically induced loss of keystone species,
collateral loss of species not necessarily affected by climate directly but dependent on
species removed by climate change (for example, the myriad species dependent on
coral-building species, see below), and phenology mismatches (disruption of the links
between a species' yearly cycle and the seasons) (Dawson et al., 2011; NRC, 2011a).
OCR for page 39
abrupt impacts of climate chang E
Likelihood of Abrupt Changes
It presently is not possible to place exact probabilities on the added contribution of
climate change to extinction, but the observations noted above indicate substan-
tial risk that impacts from climate change could, within just a few decades, drop the
populations in many species below sustainable levels, which in turn would commit
the species to extinction. Thus, even though such species might not totally disappear
as a result of climate change within the next two or three decades, climate impacts
emplaced during that time would seal the species' fate of extinction over the slightly
longer term. On the other hand, the risks of abrupt extinction (within 30 to 80 years)
are high for many species that live within two kinds of highly biodiverse ecoystems—
tropical and subtropical rainforests such as the Amazon, and coral reefs. Although
rainforests presently cover only about 2 percent of Earth's land, they harbor about half
of the planet's terrestrial species,18 and the tropics as a whole contain about two-thirds
of all terrestrial animal and plant species (Pimm, 2001). It is these areas that are among
those expected to experience the greatest relative difference between 20th century
and late 21st century climates, including a large proportion of "disappearing" and
"novel" climates (Williams et al., 2007). Coral reefs, which plausibly as a result of climate
change could disappear entirely by 2100 and almost certainly will be reduced much
in areal extent within the next few decades (Hoegh-Guldberg, 1999; Mumby et al.,
2007; Pandolfi et al., 2011; Ricke et al., 2013), are essentially the "rainforests of the sea"
(Knowlton and Jackson, 2008) in terms of biodiversity. Coral reefs support 800 hard
coral species, over 4,000 fish species, over 25 percent of the world's fish biodiversity,
and between 9-12 percent of the world's total fisheries.19 Species in high-elevation
and high-latitude regions may also be especially vulnerable to extinction as their cur-
rent climate zones disappear.
It is possible to gain some qualitative insights from natural experiments afforded by
the fossil record to bound the worst-case scenarios. A 4oC increase in mean global
temperature, which is plausible by the year 2100,20 would make mean global tem-
perature similar to what it was 14 to 15 million years ago (Barnosky et al., 2003). Then,
areas that are now at the top of the Continental Divide in Idaho and Montana were
occupied by large tortoises that could not withstand freezing temperatures in winters
18 http://www.nature.org/ourinitiatives/urgentissues/rainforests/rainforests-facts.xml.
19 http://coralreef.noaa.gov/aboutcorals/values/biodiversity/.
20 The IPCC AR5 RCP8.5 scenario suggests that exceeding 4.0°C of warming is "about as likely as not
and the AR4 suggests warming of 4.0°C by 2100 (relative to 1980-1999) as the 'best estimate' for the A1F1
scenario (IPCC, 2007c; NRC, 2011a). Society may be closer to this trajectory than to the IPCC AR4 A2 scenario,
or the AR5 RCP4.5 or 6.0 scenarios. Davis et al., 2013 note that "actual annual emissions have exceeded A2
projections for more than a decade," citing Houghton, 2008 and Boden et al., 2011.
OCR for page 39
Abrupt Changes of Primary Concern
(Barnosky et al., 2007). At the same time, what are now arid lands in Idaho and Oregon
supported forests of warm-temperate trees like those in the mahogany family, pres-
ently characteristic of central and South America, and in the deserts of Nevada, forests
were composed of trees that now are native to the southeastern United States and
eastern Asia, for instance, maple, alder, ash, yellowwood, birch, beech, and poplars
(Graham, 1999). Given current emissions trajectories, there is a chance that the tem-
perature increase by 2100 could be near 6oC.21 The last time Earth exhibited a global
mean temperature that high, what are now sagebrush grasslands in the southwestern
Wyoming and Utah were covered by subtropical, closed canopy forests interspersed
with open woodlands (Townsend et al., 2010), reminiscent of subtropical areas in Cen-
tral America today.
While different continental configurations, elevations, and atmospheric circulation
patterns now prevail on Earth, precluding a return to those exact past conditions, the
underlying message is that warming of 4o-7o will result in a biotically very different
world. At best, changes of such magnitude would trigger dramatic re-organization
of ecosystems across the globe that would play out over the next few centuries; at
worst, extinction rates would elevate considerably for the many species adapted to
pre-global warming conditions, via mechanisms described above (inability to disperse
or evolve fast enough to keep pace with the extremely rapid rate of climate change,
and disruption of ecological interactions within communities as species respond
In the oceans, some insights can be gained by tracking how pH values and relative
change in pH values correlated with the most severe past mass extinction event, the
end-Permian extinction. At current emissions trends, average pH of the oceans would
drop from about 8.1 (current levels) to at least 7.9 in about 100 years (NRC, 2011a).22 A
similar change occurred over the 200,000 years leading up to the end-Permian mass
extinction, which resulted in loss of an estimated ~90 percent or more of known spe-
cies (Chen and Benton, 2012; Knoll et al., 2007). The actual extinction event may have
been considerably less than 200,000 years in duration, but the vagaries of geological
dating preclude defining a tighter time span. While there may well have been mul-
tiple stressors that contributed to end-Permian extinctions, hitting critical thresholds
of equatorial warming and acidification are now thought to be major contributors
21 The IPCC AR4 scenario A1F1 also yields a 66% chance of warming as much as 6.4°C (IPCC, 2007c; NRC,
2011a) and the AR5 scenario a similar chance of warming 5.8°C (IPCC, 2013).
22 This estimate holds for both the IPCC AR4 A2 Scenario, in which CO concentrations rise to approxi-
mately 850 ppm in 2100, or for the the A1F1 Scenario with CO2 concentrations of around 940 ppm in 2100
(IPCC, 2001), and for the RCP8.5 scenario (IPCC, 2013). NRC (2011a) notes that at 830 ppm, tropical ocean pH
would be expected to drop .3 pH units; the A1F1 Scenario would result in a larger decrease in pH.
OCR for page 39
abrupt impacts of climate chang E
(Hönisch et al., 2012; Payne and Clapham, 2012; Sun et al., 2012). The end-Permian
extinction started from a different continental configuration and global climate, so an
exact reproduction is not to be expected, but the potential for a very large number of
extinctions in the next few decades, as a result of elevated CO2 levels that warm the
atmosphere and oceans and acidify ocean waters, is analogous (Hönisch et al., 2012;
Payne and Clapham, 2012; Sun et al., 2012).
More recently in geological time, the climatic warming at the last glacial-interglacial
transition was coincident with the extinction of 72 percent of the large-bodied
mammals in North America, and 83 percent of the large-bodied mammals in South
America—in total, 76 genera including more than 125 species for the two continents
(Barnosky and Lindsey, 2010; Brook and Barnosky, 2012; Koch and Barnosky, 2006).
Many of these extinctions occur within and just following the Younger Dryas, and
generally they are attributed to an interaction between climatic warming and human
impacts (Barnosky et al., 2004; Brook and Barnosky, 2012; Koch and Barnosky, 2006).
The magnitude of climatic warming, about 5oC, was about the same as currently-living
species are expected to experience within this century, although the end-Pleistocene
rate of warming was much slower. Also similar to today, the end-Pleistocene extinc-
tion event played out on a landscape where human population sizes began to grow
rapidly, and when people began to exert extinction pressures on other large animals
(Barnosky, 2008; Brook and Barnosky, 2012; Koch and Barnosky, 2006). The main dif-
ferences today, with respect to extinction potentials, are that anthropogenic climate
change is much more rapid and moving global climate outside the bounds living
species evolved in, and the global human population, and the pressures people place
on other species, are orders of magnitude higher than was the case at the last glacial-
interglacial transition (Barnosky et al., 2012).
Summary and the Way Forward
The current state of scientific knowledge is that there is a plausible risk for climate
change to accelerate already-elevated extinction rates, which would result in loss of
many more species over the next few decades than would be the case in the absence
of climate change. Many of the extinction impacts in the next few decades could be
cryptic, that is, reducing populations to below-viable levels, destining the species to
extinction even though extinction does not take place until later in the 21st or follow-
ing century. The losses would have high potential for changing the function of existing
ecosystems and degrading ecosystem services (see Chapter 3). The risk of widespread
extinctions over the next three to eight decades is high in at least two critically im-
portant ecosystems where much of the world's biodiversity is concentrated, tropical/
OCR for page 39
Abrupt Changes of Primary Concern
sub-tropical areas, especially rainforests and coral reefs. The risk of climate-triggered
extinctions of species adapted to high, cool elevations and high-latitude conditions
also is high.
There are several questions that are still at a nascent stage of discovery:
• Exactly which species in which ecosystems are most at risk?
• Which species extinctions would precipitate inordinately large ecological cas-
cades that would lead to further extinctions?
• What is the impact of climate-induced changes in seasonal timing and species
interactions on extinction rates?
Likewise, much remains to be learned about whether loss of biodiversity in all cases
means loss of ecosystem services (see Chapter 3, section on Ecosystem Services), and
what loss of diversity through extinctions would actually cost humanity.
What can be monitored to see abrupt changes coming? Evaluating trends of species
decline/persistence in uniform ways, such as using techniques developed and in place
by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN), is especially impor-
tant for non-charismatic species that may be essential in controlling ecosystem func-
tion, and for marine invertebrates. In general, it would be useful to monitor species
composition, abundance, phenotype, genetic diversity, nutrient cycling, etc. in uniform
ways in many different ecosystems, especially those thought to have little impact by
humans or otherwise set aside as protected areas (national parks, remote regions, etc.)
(Barnosky et al., 2012).
Currently, monitoring is taking place in a variety of contexts, and some data-sharing
and uniformity of data sharing is emerging with efforts such as the National Ecological
Observatory Network (NEON).23 But in general different things are being monitored in
different ecosystems, and there is little coordination among different groups. Overall,
a more uniform, worldwide system of ecosystem/species monitoring is needed (e.g.,
Pereira et al., 2013). Additionally, a longer time perspective is needed to develop ways
to separate the ecological "noise" from the significant ecological signals that would
presage biodiversity collapse. This requires comparing changes observed over de-
cades and centuries to long-term ecological baselines of change interpreted from rel-
evant prehistoric records—much as the climate community has done with comparing
recent changes with prehistoric proxy data (Barnosky et al., 2012; Hadly and Barnosky,
Further research is also needed in several key areas:
23 http://www.neoninc.org/.
OCR for page 39
abrupt impacts of climate chang E
1. Developing metrics to set short-term changes observed over decades or cen-
turies in the context of long-term (several hundreds to thousands of years or
more) variation in specific ecosystems
2. Better monitoring and modeling of population parameters that would predict
extinction risk in a wide variety of species
3. Better understanding of what species are most imperiled by climate change—
of those IUCN species in the vulnerable categories, for example, which would
be substantially affected by climate change and which would be more resilient
4. Better understanding of which species are true keystones, and which of those
are actually at risk from climate
5. Better understanding of how particular life history traits of species predict
6. Better predictive models of spatial and demographic responses of species to
changes in specific climate parameters
7. Better understanding of the role of species interactions in affecting resilience
to climate change
8. Better understanding of the costs—in ecosystem services, economics, and
aesthetic/emotional value—of losing species through extinction
With improved understanding of these issues, society can make more informed deci-
sions about potential intervention actions (Figure 2.21).
OCR for page 39
Abrupt Changes of Primary Concern
FIGURE 2.21 Improved understanding of adaptive capacity, sensitivity, and exposure to climate change
can allow for more informed policy decisions. Potential actions are shown as a function of these variables.
Source: Dawson et al., 2011.
OCR for page 39


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National Underground is a split-level venue in the former location of Martignetti's Liquors, found in Manhattan's Lower East Side in New York City.
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Line-up /Brian Suarez ( Allies, Riff Raff Crew)
Navi (Riff Raff Crew)As we did with Old Skool Reload parties errr in 2007- 2009 (i think) it's all UK breaks and rave tunes pre 1994. YEEEAHHHHH!
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Thursday, 12 Jun 2014 07:01 PM
By Cathy Burke
For example, with $425 mill ISIS could pay 60,000 fighters around $600 a month for a year.— Brown Moses (@Brown_Moses) June 11, 2014
For example, with $425 mill ISIS could pay 60,000 fighters around $600 a month for a year.
© 2015 Newsmax. All rights reserved.
Friday, 27 Feb 2015 09:55 AM
Eight people were found dead overnight in an apparent mass murder and suicide in rural southern Missouri, the Missouri S . . .
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Britney Spears Tops Forbes' Highest-Earning Women In Music List
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Brit Brit brought home a whopping $58 million thanks to her Femme Fatale album, tour, fragrances and endorsement deals. We're guessing that $18 million X Factor gig didn't hurt either!
Taylor Swift follows closely behind with $57 million. Most of her earnings come from touring. Forbes estimates she grossed $1 million per night. GRAMMY nominee Swift also has major deals with Cover Girl and Sony. Expect her to add upon this with sales from her latest album Red, which was the highest debut of any artist thus far in 2012.
Rihanna came in third place with a respectable $53 million. Forbes says RiRi's fortune comes from her non-stop touring, string of massive hit songs, Reb'l Fleur perfume, and endorsements with Vita Coco and Nivea.
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The concept of this company is simple: Buy a bag of Bogobowl's own dog food brand and they'l donate a bag to a needy dog in your own community. Choose from one of seven formulas, all made with natural ingredients and without byproducts or artificial flavors, or buy 10 bags and you'll get one free (plus one will go to a needy pooch).
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Google just started rolling out an updated Google Play Store version 3.9.16 that follows the previous version 3.8.17 from August. Good news, everyone - we've already got our hands on the APK for you to install manually thanks to our loyal tipsters.
There is a more recent version of the Play Store available for download here: [APK Download + Teardown] Play Store v5.2 Shows Signs Of A New Details Page, Self-Hosted Enterprise Apps, And Much More
And a few earlier ones:
- Play Store v5.1.11 Rolling Out With Full-Height Navigation Drawer, New My Account Page With Order History, And More [APK Download]
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Quickie Tortellini Soup
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10 minsIn response to a request. A quick and yummy fancied up condensed soup recipe :)
Make and share this Quickie Tortellini Soup recipe from Food.com.
Nutrition- 2 (10 ounce) cans condensed tomato soup
- 1 (9 ounce) packagerefrigerated tortellini
- 1⁄2 cup frozen peas
- 1⁄4 cup grated parmesan cheese (optional)
- Add water to soups as directed on cans.
- Combine in saucepan with tortellini and heat over medium heat until the soup boils, stirring frequently.
- Reduce heat, cover and simmer for 2 minutes.
- Add the frozen peas and simmer 2 more minutes or until the tortellini is tender.
- Package cheese separately to sprinkle over soup before eating.


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Yellowcard violinist Sean Mackin gives high marks to the fans during the band's gig at The Warfield in San Francisco. Marcy Guiragossian
September 24, 2003 |
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int main() { // Initialize Winsock // Attempt to connect to server(machine from which i will get data) { //Run the ioctlsocket() command //Run the setsockopt() command // Connect to server. } //create thread while(1); } //Thread defination() { while(1) { //send data to machine //receive data from machine if received bytes is equal to,what we want then call //function to parse the data and store it in a file } }
Quote:Do i have to use any semaphore,mutexes?
This content, along with any associated source code and files, is licensed under The Code Project Open License (CPOL)


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Narendra Modi-endorsed artwork sells for Rs 1.30 crore at charity auction
DNA India, 1 month ago
3 BJP MLAs to shun VadfestTourism minister Saurabh Patel at Vadfest's pre-opening Garvi Gujarat event. (Source: Express photo by Bhupendra Rana) Three BJP MLAs have decided to stay away from Vadfest — a cultural event backed by the Gujarat government that will feature ... Indian Express, 1 month ago
Noted artists to give VadFest a miss
Indian Express, 1 month ago
Brushstrokes that can change livesComment · print · T T T+· T- Art for a cause:Boxer M.C. Mary Kom, cricketer Sunil Gavaskar and actor Shah Rukh Khan have collaborated with artists to create works that will be sold at an art auction. Above, artist Satish Gupta with the ... The Hindu, 1 month ago


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May 29, 2014 - Products
An application designed for smart phones and other mobile devices allows shippers and carriers to receive real-time status and location updates on shipments by utilizing the GPS capabilities of the driver's smartphone.
CrossFleet, Fayetteville, Ark., said its Locate app can track GPS location data from all driver cell phones and display that information on smart phones and tablets via the mobile app or an online dashboard.
The company said the service does not require additional IT infrastructure or a fixed-term contract. Carriers and shippers pay "per ping" or per use. The app can integrate with shipper and carrier TMS systems, making load and shipment data readily available.
The application is available for free download from the Apple iStore or from Google Play's online store.
Tags: GPS Tracking, Mobile Apps, Information Technology
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In the 1840s, Ben Boyd sailed his schooner the Wanderer around the world from one failed venture to the next and ultimately to his death in the Pacific Islands, after which the schooner was shipwrecked. His legacy is the remains of Boydtown at Twofold Bay near Eden on the NSW far south coast. Now the ...Monday 2 March 2015
Around three hundred people on life support equipment were among 16,000 electricity customers left without power in the early hours of Saturday morning when power distributor Essential Energy had an 'unplanned interruption' to supply in south east NSW. ...Tuesday 17 February 2015
Olga Masters, known for her insightful social commentary in her novels and short stories, began her career as a teenage journalist in the small south east NSW town of Cobargo. When her son, Ian Masters, also a journalist, recently visited Cobargo he provided some hard hitting social commentary ...Wednesday 4 February 2015
Snowy Hydro has had a year of anniversaries and expansion. They go into a new year with a managing director who, in his previous role, recommended Snowy Hydro be privatised - a view supported by the current Federal Government's National Commission of Audit and the Australian Competition and ...Tuesday 6 January 2015
Bombala Station is the end of a now closed railway line that was intended to reach into Victoria and branch down to the Bega Valley. It operated from 1921 to 1986 as the major transport route for passengers and for goods to and from the Monaro....Tuesday 16 December 2014
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A deal on the renewable energy target seems close, but it seems there are still sticking points and different views from within Government. The Environment Minister, Greg Hunt, says an agreement with Labor and the renewable energy industry is within reach. But the office of the Industry ...Thursday 5 March 2015
- They do the leg work for foreign correspondents who arrive in a new place and have to get on top of a story quickly, but rarely receive public acknowledgement for their work. Fixers can shape who you speak to and what angle you take on a story, as well as the logistics of making it all happen. ...Thursday 5 March 2015
- Following the killing of opposition leader Boris Nemtsov, we look at the way Russian president Vladimir Putin uses the media to project his views within his country and to the outside world....Thursday 5 March 2015
- The Australian Communications and Media Authority (ACMA), has won the High Court battle in its long running dispute with radio group, Austereo. The case centred on the powers used by ACMA in relation to a 2012 broadcast of a prank call to a London hospital where the Duchess of Cambridge was being ...Thursday 5 March 2015
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John Kraemer & Sons
Kids' Bedroom
like to know who actually designed it because I'd like to hire them.
Inda design en roomku freeaa senjee Thara mudiyuma auncle...?
Where can I get the teal throw pillow on the bed?
I think the Bed is Amazing! Can you tell me where I can purchase an identical one?
Can you tell me where to find the wallpaper behind this bed?
recognize this bed but it would be possible to have one custom made. Gabberts Design Studio has the capabilities to create any upholstered bed to your exact
work with a handful of talented interior designers from around the Twin Cities, so we're not pigeon-holed into only using in-house designers. Tom Rauscher
and as such, would be most grateful to know the designer , brand, or fabric of the teal pillow on the bed. Blessings & Thank-you for your time!
Which are the measures of the bed?
Can we do a window seat at the front windows? And then TV across from that? — donnaccarson
Loudoun County Kitchen & Bath Designer
Best of Houzz 2014, 2015!
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We are an award winning a remodeling company, focusing on complete kitchen, bathroom, basement & sun room remodeling with home additions & renovations services. Contact us for your next project!
Mediterranean Bedroom
custom made or can you let me know the make? Thanks so much.
Is the master bath and closet area behind the wall where bed sits
We are looking at different hand hewn wood flooring and if you have any info- species, manufacturer, width
tell me where I can find these two small seatings that are at the end of the bed. Love the nail exposed and color. Carpet color choice was excellent...
I love the bed and would appreciate learning more about it.
bath/closet behind bed? how do we get natural lite?
beige more than lighter wood (bed)...like the stools at the end of the bed.
Could be France or italy — Sue Ghazaleh
David Michael Miller Associates
Rustic Eclectic Farmhouse
back to front?). I'm also curious to know whether this sectional sofa is made up of 2 sections, or is there a separate 3rd section that makes up the corner
way--we designed and built these day beds with the job's trim carpenter and then our local upholsterer made the old school button tufted, hand ticked cushions
we made the daybeds and all the cushions. the cushions are all hand ticked, hand tufted, etc. the wood base platforms were built
the cushion and pillow work made locally. the cushion work was all local, with ticking and button tufting all done by hand. i love the look and it is
this link to just admire it from time to time!. The cushions have the hand ticket design that's inspired from Moroccan living rooms (am from Morocco so I want
colors — blairequinn
David Howell Design
Mexico House
A troll family lives here and they are very happy. The neighbors, on the other hand, well.....
Platform bed in window space, settee area
I like this idea of having a nook for another bed, would be great for casita
area with winow...would love to create a small area just like that for the dogs
bed frame...Sofa Bed in the corner...leo bed
the nook !!! — Veronique Crouzoulon
D-CRAIN Design and Construction
Dog yard ghi...Trees for dog fence...Retaining walls made of iron...formal design
Planters — mp1953
James Glover Residential & Interior Design
Belardi Residence
It was design by us and it was built by "Dennis Miller-Miller ironworks" in San Clemente ca
reaching the front door. I would like an arched, solid wood rustic over sized hand made front door in this area. I have someone that can make it if you could give
what is Gate Style?
James Glover Residential & Interior DesignIt was design by us and it was built by "Dennis Miller-Miller ironworks" in San
use mini iron gate for dog door -
wrought iron front gate — elsarrow
Tucker & Marks
Hilltop Retreat
Interior Design by Tucker & Marks: ...
Photograph by Matthew Millman
These window treatments were made with the "Leopard" textile in the Olivine colorway, by Raoul Textiles: ...
Who made the window treatment rods please
I know that the living room of this home has hand-troweled plaster walls with a custom-mixed warm straw color. I'm not sure
Hello! The window treatments are made with a leopard print linen from Raoul Textiles at De Sousa Hughes, called "Leopard" in the Olivine colorway
Drapery and bed ruffle prints. Could sew. Then quilted solid comforter.
Interior Design by Tucker & Marks: ...
This custom
hardware was purchased from Martin Kobus:...
These window treatments were made with the "Leopard" textile in the Olivine colorway, by Raoul Textiles: .
overall feel — napatwyla
David Michael Miller Associates
Rustic Eclectic Farmhouse
I like the fact that they could be used for sitting, reading a book or beds.
where would you have a mattress like this made? Could you somehow cover a traditional mattress to look like this?
they were designed and built for this project. the cabinet on the left side facing of the fireplace actually conceals a tv lift.
up to create a daytime seat — at night it can be cleared off and used as a bed. Think of the divan as the daybed's older, more lounge-worthy sibling.
Ceiling — debicarr
Renovating in Ashburn? Contact a local pro
Metes & Bounds Landscape Design
Northern Virginia Landscape Architecture and Construction
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text:
Jan 3, 2013|
Lovie Smith fitting in with the Bills
Related Audio:
Fri, 6 Mar 2015
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Automatically Generated Transcript (may not be 100% accurate)
So yeah it isn't that what slippers and head coach I can tell you now just -- don't screw -- Look at the -- Just hope to loosen them. Most news. And at least since 2000. Chicago this episode coach. -- institutions looking to. Coach. -- -- Question. It's about championships. Aren't you good to secure. This group that includes 2010 national championship then -- And who spoke at different times he went to a super of course goes well this is quarterbacks at the -- -- -- -- Think that's the special teams skins don't put together. -- -- Okay Cutler so he gets balanced about it back then smooth it was. It was a disastrous. And get the attention around with them but to try to tell the emotions and you can do -- it -- prohibition that didn't compete for championships because. The special troops into the restrictions that. We're on this broadcast from this venture.


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Top Definition
The after drippings from man on man coitus. Often brown and frothy.
John had to use Clorox to remove all the fribbis stains from his winnie the pooh costume.
by randy mcnally
June 30, 2014
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Translation of tad in Spanish:
- 1.1 (small boy)(American English) [dated]1.2a tad [colloquial]Example sentences
- A tad more pressure, the paper blots, and the picture goes awry.
- A tad more emotional wallowing might be desired by some, but I don't find it lacking in depth or enjoyment.
- A tad more luck in front of goal and it could have been a different outcome.
Definition of tad in:
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Here is a selection of useful words and phrases you will need in real-life situations while you're visiting Spain and other Spanish-speaking countries...
Cultural fact of the day
Today is Aberri Eguna, Basque national day, and a public holiday in the Basque country of Spain.


text:
The Captain Toad's Rough Ride attraction as seen from the top of the canyon
Captain Toad is well known as the worst pedestrian in Fantasyland. On this attraction, you pretend that you are him, crushing Toad Hall, disrupting the area, setting a bad example for young guests, and even making a Dionysian journey into the frontier!
We suggest you don't try Pirate Mode
© copyright 2011–2015
A Pants Aflame production


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Karl Soulos
I am 37 years old and enjoy taking photos that Interest me , i like to try and capture images that are enjoyable to look at . I like kitesurfing, surfing all outdoor sports. I hope you enjoy the images i present
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A: Do you know?


text:
Since 1919 Post 43 has been composed of Hollywood's finest professionals in the Entertainment industry. Here you'll find your next star and the crew members to help get them there. Check out our members' pages and discover the wealth of talent and experience this post has to offer. Our Clubhouse has been a landmark on Highland Avenue since 1928 and our halls are where many of Hollywood's best and brightest have gathered.
Congratulations to Sam Novicki! Sam, a member of the Sons, was the winner of the Post 43 Oratorical Contest which was held Sunday, Feb. 8 at Post 43. Sam is a sophomore at Cathedral High School and is the son of Post 43 members Carl and Heather Risinger. Other contestants included Kathleen Glynn and Chemil Durant of Los Angeles High School and Kyle Alfaro of Granada Hills Charter High School. Sam now goes on to the District Competition which will be held at the Post on Sunday, Feb. 22 at 1 pm. All members are invited.
P.S. Do not arrive before 12 Noon as we have an Event that will be loading out the morning of the 22nd. Also be aware the 22nd is Oscar day and there will be street closures.
Greeting Comrades!
In case you didn't know... March 19th marks the 96th anniversary of the creation of The American Legion.
With the end of World War I in November 1918, Lt. Colonel Theodore Roosevelt, Jr., eldest son of the 26th President, came up with the idea of forming an organization of wartime veterans who would continue to serve their nation in peace as they had in war. Among the names considered for the new organization were Veterans of the Great War, Liberty League, American Comrades of the Great War, Legion of the Great War, among others. "The American Legion" was eventually selected.
It is interesting to note that Hollywood Post 43 was one of the first posts in the nation to be chartered by the new American Legion. Today - thanks to our members - Hollywood Post 43 is known throughout The American Legion as one of the most historic and dynamic posts in the nation.
Let us carry on that tradition of service to our community, state and nation through The American Legion's Four Pillars of service - National Security; Americanism; Veterans Affairs and Rehabilitation; and Children and Youth.
Join with me in rededicating ourselves in becoming the best Legionnaires we can possibly be by regularly attending post, district, and county council meetings; serving on committees; and running for elective offices.
Secretary of Veterans Affairs Robert A. McDonald issued the following...
On January 28, 2015, U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA)...
Building on President Obama's commitment to end Veteran homelessness, the...
Post 43 bartender, Jon Endow writes "I had the honor to photograph some of the veterans at the Hollywood American Legion Post 43.
These portraits are now on exhibit at LA City Hall in the East Bridge Gallery. It will be up for the month of November.
I would like to invite you to the Gallery Reception on November 25th.
Parking is located at City Hall East - 201 N. Los Angeles St. LA, CA 90012
Attached is a link to RSVP and REGISTER your Car for Parking.
Shown above, Post 43 Commander Donald C. Schilling receiving his National Legion College diploma from National Commander Michael D. Helm, National Adjutant Daniel S. Wheeler, and Past National Commander Butch Miller.
Photo by Lucas Carter, The American Legion.
Born James Weldon on December 23, 1923 in Dale, Texas, Weldon began his career as a disc jockey at KWCO in Chickasha, Oklahoma in 1946, remaining there for four years. He made his television debut in 1950, as "Uncle" Jimmy (himself) and the voice of the duck puppet, Webster Webfoot on The Webster Webfoot Show, produced locally by Dallas station WFAA-TV.
Survivor's guilt and PTSD tear one soldier apart after his...
The Hollywood American Legion Hall is a wonderful mid-size venue, with classic art deco architecture mixed with an historic military motif. The stage in the hall is small and intimate and the general admission set up allows you to be as close as you want to the action. This is a great venue to see your favorite artists up close and personal. The Hall has a rich heritage as an American Legion Post, but also has been a favorite haunt of local artists and politicians. Humphrey Bogart was often seen (and heard!) in the basement bar, and many films and television commercials are filmed here. The small and intimate atmosphere of this venue makes this a great place to enjoy a show. There is a collection of military memorabilia to peruse while you enjoy a drink in the foyer, and don't forget to slip downstairs to the bar for a roaring 20's style club. Learn More...
To uphold and defend the Constitution of the United States of America; to maintain law and order; to foster and perpetuate a one hundred percent Americanism; to preserve the memories and incidents of our associations in the great wars; to inculcate a sense of individual obligation to the community, state and nation; to combat the autocracy of both the classes and the masses; to make right the master of might; to promote peace and goodwill on earth; to safeguard and transmit to posterity the principles of justice, freedom and democracy; to consecrate and sanctify our comradeship by our devotion to mutual helpfulness.


text:
Manufacturer's Description
The Sport Grip is the ideal complement for your iPod nano 4G. Slip-free, high-grade silicone protect the sides, top, back and bottom while providing access to the ports. The docking port is safely covered by an easy access silicone slot. Subtle texturing allows for a secure grip, and the result is an ergonomic, comfortable and sporty way to get a firm grip on your nano. It contains aint-microbial additive.
The Specs
Additional Specifications | |
Brand Name | Marblue |
Device Type | Multimedia Player Skin |
URL | http://www.marware.com |
Product Line | SportGrip |
Quick Glance |
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Lenten and Holy Week Schedule at Saint PeterClick HERE to view the Lenten and Holy Week schedule. |
Religious FreedomWe must continue our prayers for our nation and become educated, articulate, and active supporters of our religious freedom. St. Thomas More, Patron of Religious Freedom, Pray for Us. To voice your opinion in the public square, you can contact your elected representatives as follows reference religious liberty in America: |
Charitable Needs
Main Office: phone (719) 481-3511, 55 N. Jefferson St., Monument, CO, Monument, CO 80132 (see map). Questions or suggestions about the website, please contact us.


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Nestle and Coca-Cola have both announced Chinese expansion plans. With China's WTO entry still hot news, two of the largest consumer multinationals will build their businesses there. This is good sense. As China develops and integrates with the rest of the world, it presents major expansion opportunities. And Nestle and Coca-Cola seem better placed than most to cope
Comment: Nestle/Coca-Cola: China a rising star
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Customer Service/ Inside Sales Representative ... embrace a refreshing change with a Riverwoods area, environmentally conscious industrial product - Indeed
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