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Office of Scientific and Technical Information
Annual Energy Outlook 2009: With Projections to 2030
Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)
Interindustry Forecasting Project at the University of Maryland IRP Integrated resource plan IRR Internal rate of return ITC Investment tax credit LCFS Low Carbon Fuel Standard...
Annual Energy Outlook with Projections to 2025-Forecast Comparisons
Forecast Comparisons Forecast Comparisons Annual Energy Outlook 2004 with Projections to 2025 Forecast Comparisons Index (click to jump links) Economic Growth World Oil Prices Total Energy Consumption Electricity Natural Gas Petroleum Coal The AEO2004 forecast period extends through 2025. One other organizationGlobal Insight, Incorporated (GII)produces a comprehensive energy projection with a similar time horizon. Several others provide forecasts that address one or more aspects of energy markets over different time horizons. Recent projections from GII and others are compared here with the AEO2004 projections. Economic Growth Printer Friendly Version Average annual percentage growth Forecast 2002-2008 2002-2013 2002-2025 AEO2003 3.2 3.3 3.1 AEO2004 Reference 3.3 3.2 3.0
The Sydney 2000 Olympic Games Forecast Demonstration Project: Forecasting, Observing Network Infrastructure, and Data Processing Issues
Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)
The Sydney 2000 Olympic Games World Weather Research Programme Forecast Demonstration Project (WWRP FDP) aimed to demonstrate the utility and impact of modern nowcast systems. The project focused on the use of radar processing systems and ...
Peter T. May; Thomas D. Keenan; Rod Potts; James W. Wilson; Rob Webb; Andrew Treloar; Elly Spark; Sue Lawrence; Elizabeth Ebert; John Bally; Paul Joe
Sydney 2000 Forecast Demonstration Project: Convective Storm Nowcasting
Five of the nowcasting systems that were available during the Sydney 2000 Forecast Demonstration Project (FDP) were selected for evaluation. These systems, from the United States, the United Kingdom, and Australia, had the capability to nowcast ...
James W. Wilson; Elizabeth E. Ebert; Thomas R. Saxen; Rita D. Roberts; Cynthia K. Mueller; Michael Sleigh; Clive E. Pierce; Alan Seed
Forecasting the space weather impact: The COMESEP project
The FP7 COronal Mass Ejections and Solar Energetic Particles (COMESEP) project is developing tools for forecasting geomagnetic storms and solar energetic particle (SEP) radiation storms. By analysis of historical data
N. B. Crosby; A. Veronig; E. Robbrecht; B. Vrsnak; S. Vennerstrom; O. Malandraki; S. Dalla; L. Rodriguez; N. Srivastava; M. Hesse; D. Odstrcil; COMESEP Consortium
Annual Energy Outlook with Projections to 2025 - Forecast Comparisons
Forecast Comparisons Forecast Comparisons Annual Energy Outlook 2005 Forecast Comparisons Table 32. Forecasts of annual average economic growth, 2003-2025 Printer Friendly Version Average annual percentage growth Forecast 2003-2009 2003-2014 2003-2025 AEO2004 3.5 3.2 3.0 AEO2005 Reference 3.4 3.3 3.1 Low growth 2.9 2.8 2.5 High growth 4.1 3.9 3.6 GII 3.4 3.2 3.1 OMB 3.6 NA NA CBO 3.5 3.1 NA OEF 3.5 3.5 NA Only one other organizationGlobal Insight, Incorporated (GII)produces a comprehensive energy projection with a time horizon similar to that of AEO2005. Other organizations address one or more aspects of the energy markets. The most recent projection from GII, as well as other forecasts that concentrate on economic growth, international oil prices, energy
Analysis and Forecasting of the Low-Level Wind during the Sydney 2000 Forecast Demonstration Project
During the Sydney 2000 Forecast Demonstration Project (FDP) a four-dimensional variational assimilation (4DVAR) scheme was run to analyze the low-level wind field with high spatial and temporal resolution. The 4DVAR scheme finds an optimal fit to ...
N. Andrew Crook; Juanzhen Sun
Forecasting project progress and early warning of project overruns with probabilistic methods
E-Print Network (OSTI)
Forecasting is a critical component of project management. Project managers must be able to make reliable predictions about the final duration and cost of projects starting from project inception. Such predictions need to be revised and compared with the project�s objectives to obtain early warnings against potential problems. Therefore, the effectiveness of project controls relies on the capability of project managers to make reliable forecasts in a timely manner. This dissertation focuses on forecasting project schedule progress with probabilistic methods. Currently available methods, for example, the critical path method (CPM) and earned value management (EVM) are deterministic and fail to account for the inherent uncertainty in forecasting and project performance. The objective of this dissertation is to improve the predictive capabilities of project managers by developing probabilistic forecasting methods that integrate all relevant information and uncertainties into consistent forecasts in a mathematically sound procedure usable in practice. In this dissertation, two probabilistic methods, the Kalman filter forecasting method (KFFM) and the Bayesian adaptive forecasting method (BAFM), were developed. The KFFM and the BAFM have the following advantages over the conventional methods: (1) They are probabilistic methods that provide prediction bounds on predictions; (2) They are integrative methods that make better use of the prior performance information available from standard construction management practices and theories; and (3) They provide a systematic way of incorporating measurement errors into forecasting. The accuracy and early warning capacity of the KFFM and the BAFM were also evaluated and compared against the CPM and a state-of-the-art EVM schedule forecasting method. Major conclusions from this research are: (1) The state-of-the-art EVM schedule forecasting method can be used to obtain reliable warnings only after the project performance has stabilized; (2) The CPM is not capable of providing early warnings due to its retrospective nature; (3) The KFFM and the BAFM can and should be used to forecast progress and to obtain reliable early warnings of all projects; and (4) The early warning capacity of forecasting methods should be evaluated and compared in terms of the timeliness and reliability of warning in the context of formal early warning systems.
Kim, Byung Cheol
Forecasting is a critical component of project management. Project managers must be able to make reliable predictions about the final duration and cost of projects starting from project inception. Such predictions need to be revised and compared with the project's objectives to obtain early warnings against potential problems. Therefore, the effectiveness of project controls relies on the capability of project managers to make reliable forecasts in a timely manner. This dissertation focuses on forecasting project schedule progress with probabilistic methods. Currently available methods, for example, the critical path method (CPM) and earned value management (EVM) are deterministic and fail to account for the inherent uncertainty in forecasting and project performance. The objective of this dissertation is to improve the predictive capabilities of project managers by developing probabilistic forecasting methods that integrate all relevant information and uncertainties into consistent forecasts in a mathematically sound procedure usable in practice. In this dissertation, two probabilistic methods, the Kalman filter forecasting method (KFFM) and the Bayesian adaptive forecasting method (BAFM), were developed. The KFFM and the BAFM have the following advantages over the conventional methods: (1) They are probabilistic methods that provide prediction bounds on predictions; (2) They are integrative methods that make better use of the prior performance information available from standard construction management practices and theories; and (3) They provide a systematic way of incorporating measurement errors into forecasting. The accuracy and early warning capacity of the KFFM and the BAFM were also evaluated and compared against the CPM and a state-of-the-art EVM schedule forecasting method. Major conclusions from this research are: (1) The state-of-the-art EVM schedule forecasting method can be used to obtain reliable warnings only after the project performance has stabilized; (2) The CPM is not capable of providing early warnings due to its retrospective nature; (3) The KFFM and the BAFM can and should be used to forecast progress and to obtain reliable early warnings of all projects; and (4) The early warning capacity of forecasting methods should be evaluated and compared in terms of the timeliness and reliability of warning in the context of formal early warning systems.
Foresight and forecasts: participation in a welfare technology innovation project
In predicting areas of growth, public innovation projects may rely on optimistic visions of technology still in development as a way of ensuring novelty for funding. This paper explores what happens when forecasts of robotic technology meets the practice ... Keywords: facilitation, healthcare, participatory innovation, robotics
Kyle Kilbourn; Marie Bay
Annual Energy Outlook 2006 with Projections to 2030 - Forecast Comparisons
Forecast Comparisons Forecast Comparisons Annual Energy Outlook 2006 with Projections to 2030 Only GII produces a comprehensive energy projection with a time horizon similar to that of AEO2006. Other organizations address one or more aspects of the energy markets. The most recent projection from GII, as well as others that concentrate on economic growth, international oil prices, energy consumption, electricity, natural gas, petroleum, and coal, are compared here with the AEO2006 projections. Economic Growth In the AEO2006 reference case, the projected growth in real GDP, based on 2000 chain-weighted dollars, is 3.0 percent per year from 2004 to 2030 (Table 19). For the period from 2004 to 2025, real GDP growth in the AEO2006 reference case is similar to the average annual growth projected in AEO2005. The AEO2006 projections of economic growth are based on the August short-term forecast of GII, extended by EIA through 2030 and modified to reflect EIAs view on energy prices, demand, and production.
Forecasting and Verifying in a Field Research Project: DOPLIGHT '87
Verification of forecasts during research field experiments is discussed and exemplified using the DOPLIGHT '87 experiment. We stress the importance of forecast verification if forecasting is to be a serious component of the research. A direct ...
Charles A. Doswell III; John A. Flueck
Traditional scheduling tools like Gantt Charts and CPM while useful in planning and execution of complex construction projects with multiple interdependent activities haven?t been of much help in implementing effective control systems for the same projects in case of deviation from their desired or assumed behavior. Further, in case of such deviations project managers in most cases make decisions which might be guided either by the prospects of short term gains or the intension of forcing the project to follow the original schedule or plan, inadvertently increasing the overall project cost. Many deterministic project control methods have been proposed by various researchers for calculating optimal resource schedules considering the time-cost as well as the time-cost-quality trade-off analysis. But the need is for a project control system which optimizes the effort or cost required for controlling the project by incorporating the stochastic dynamic nature of the construction-production process. Further, such a system must include a method for updating and revising the beliefs or models used for representing the dynamics of the project using the actual progress data of the project. This research develops such an optimal project control method using Kalman Filter forecasting method for updating and using the assumed project dynamics model for forecasting the Estimated Cost at Completion (EAC) and the Estimated Duration at Completion (EDAC) taking into account the inherent uncertainties in the project progress and progress measurements. The controller is then formulated for iteratively calculating the optimal resource allocation schedule that minimizes either the EAC or both the EAC and EDAC together using the evolutionary optimization algorithm Covariance Matrix Adaption Evolution Strategy (CMA-ES). The implementation of the developed framework is used with a hypothetical project and tested for its robustness in updating the assumed initial project dynamics model and yielding the optimal control policy considering some hypothetical cases of uncertainties in the project progress and progress measurements. Based on the tests and demonstrations firstly it is concluded that a project dynamics model based on the project Gantt chart for spatial interdependencies of sub-tasks with triangular progress rates is a good representation of a typical construction project; and secondly, it is shown that the use of CMA-ES in conjunction with the Kalman Filter estimation and forecasting method provides a robust framework that can be implemented for any kind of complex construction process for yielding the optimal control policies.
Bondugula, Srikant
Forecasting world oil prices: the evolution of modeling methodologies and summary of recent projections
SciTech Connect
This paper has three main objectives: (1) to review and summarize the varios methodologies that have been developed to explain historical oil price changes and forecast future price trends, (2) to summarize recent world oil price forecasts, and, when possible, discuss the methodologies used in formulating those forecasts, and (3) utilizing conclusions from the reviews of the modeling methodologies and the recent price forecasts, in combination with an assessment of recent and projected oil market trends, to give oil price projections for the time period 1987 to 2022. The paper argues that modeling methodologies have undergone significant evolution during the past decade as modelers increasingly recognize the complex and constantly changing structure of the world oil market. Unfortunately, a consensus about the appropriate methodology to use in formulating oil price forecasts is yet to be reached. There is, however, a general movement toward the opinion that both economic and political factors should be considered when making price projections. Likewise, there is no consensus about future oil price trends. Forecasts differ widely. However, in general, forecasts have been adjusted downwardly in recent years. Further, an overall assessment of the forecasts and recent oil market trends suggests that oil prices will remain constant in real terms for the remainder of the 1980s. Real oil prices are expected to increase by between 2 and 3% during the 1990s and beyond. Forecasters are quick to point out, however, that all forecasts are subject to significant uncertainty. 68 references, 1 figure, 6 tables.
Curlee, T.R.
The Australian Air Quality Forecasting System. Part I: Project Description and Early Outcomes
The Australian Air Quality Forecasting System (AAQFS) is the culmination of a 3-yr project to develop a numerical primitive equation system for generating high-resolution (1�5 km) short-term (24�36 h) forecasts for the Australian coastal cities ...
M. E. Cope; G. D. Hess; S. Lee; K. Tory; M. Azzi; J. Carras; W. Lilley; P. C. Manins; P. Nelson; L. Ng; K. Puri; N. Wong; S. Walsh; M. Young
The Sydney 2000 World Weather Research Programme Forecast Demonstration Project: Overview and Current Status
The first World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) Forecast Demonstration Project (FDP), with a focus on nowcasting, was conducted in Sydney, Australia, from 4 September to 21 November 2000 during a period associated with the Sydney 2000 Olympic ...
T. Keenan; P. Joe; J. Wilson; C. Collier; B. Golding; D. Burgess; P. May; C. Pierce; J. Bally; A. Crook; A. Seed; D. Sills; L. Berry; R. Potts; I. Bell; N. Fox; E. Ebert; M. Eilts; K. O'Loughlin; R. Webb; R. Carbone; K. Browning; R. Roberts; C. Mueller
Verification of Nowcasts from the WWRP Sydney 2000 Forecast Demonstration Project
The verification phase of the World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) Sydney 2000 Forecast Demonstration Project (FDP) was intended to measure the skill of the participating nowcast algorithms in predicting the location of convection, rainfall ...
Elizabeth E. Ebert; Laurence J. Wilson; Barbara G. Brown; Pertti Nurmi; Harold E. Brooks; John Bally; Matthias Jaeneke
EERE News: New SunShot Projects to Improve Forecasting and Speed...
Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site
News Home Page News Stories Information for Media Subscribe RSS Feeds New SunShot Projects to Improve Forecasting and Speed Installation of Solar Power December 07, 2012 Photo...
The Impact of Advanced Nowcasting Systems on Severe Weather Warning during the Sydney 2000 Forecast Demonstration Project: 3 November 2000
One of the principal aims of the Sydney 2000 Forecast Demonstration Project was to assess the utility of advanced nowcasting systems to operational severe weather forecasters. This paper describes the application of the products of a variety of ...
Neil I. Fox; Rob Webb; John Bally; Michael W. Sleigh; Clive E. Pierce; David M. L. Sills; Paul I. Joe; James Wilson; Chris G. Collier
Energy Forecast, ForskEL (Smart Grid Project) | Open Energy Information
Open Energy Info (EERE)
Forecast, ForskEL (Smart Grid Project) Forecast, ForskEL (Smart Grid Project) Jump to: navigation, search Project Name Energy Forecast, ForskEL Country Denmark Coordinates 56.26392°, 9.501785° Loading map... {"minzoom":false,"mappingservice":"googlemaps3","type":"ROADMAP","zoom":14,"types":["ROADMAP","SATELLITE","HYBRID","TERRAIN"],"geoservice":"google","maxzoom":false,"width":"600px","height":"350px","centre":false,"title":"","label":"","icon":"","visitedicon":"","lines":[],"polygons":[],"circles":[],"rectangles":[],"copycoords":false,"static":false,"wmsoverlay":"","layers":[],"controls":["pan","zoom","type","scale","streetview"],"zoomstyle":"DEFAULT","typestyle":"DEFAULT","autoinfowindows":false,"kml":[],"gkml":[],"fusiontables":[],"resizable":false,"tilt":0,"kmlrezoom":false,"poi":true,"imageoverlays":[],"markercluster":false,"searchmarkers":"","locations":[{"text":"","title":"","link":null,"lat":56.26392,"lon":9.501785,"alt":0,"address":"","icon":"","group":"","inlineLabel":"","visitedicon":""}]}
Improving Projected Potential Evapotranspiration Estimates Using National Weather Service Forecasts
In a recent survey conducted by the University of Nebrask's Center for Agricultural Meteorology and Climatology of Agricultural Network (AGNET) users, the results of potential evapotranspiration (ETp) projections (calculated using the Blaney-...
Steven J. Meyer; Kenneth G. Hubbard; Donald A. Wilhite
EIA - AEO2010 - Comparison With Other Projections
Comparison With Other Projections Comparison With Other Projections Annual Energy Outlook 2010 with Projections to 2035 Comparison With Other Projections Only IHS Global Insights, Inc. (IHSGI) produces a comprehensive energy projection with a time horizon similar to that of AEO2010. Other organizations, however, address one or more aspects of the U.S. energy market. The most recent projection from IHSGI, as well as others that concentrate on economic growth, international oil prices, energy consumption, electricity, natural gas, petroleum, and coal, are compared here with the AEO2010 projections. Economic growth Projections of the average annual growth rate of real GDP in the United States from 2008 to 2018 range from 2.1 percent to 2.8 percent (Table 9). In the AEO2010 Reference case, real GDP grows by an average of 2.2 percent per year over the period, lower than projected by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the Social Security Administration (SSA), and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)although none of those projections has been updated since August 2009. The AEO2010 projection is similar to the IHSGI projection and slightly higher than projections by the Interindustry Forecasting Project at the University of Maryland (INFORUM). In March 2009, the consensus Blue Chip projection was for 2.2-percent average annual growth from 2008 to 2018.
EIA - Annual Energy Outlook 2009 - Comparison with Other Projections
Comparison with Other Projections Comparison with Other Projections Annual Energy Outlook 2009 with Projections to 2030 Comparison with Other Projections Only IHS Global Insight (IHSGI) produces a comprehensive energy projection with a time horizon similar to that of AEO2009. Other organizations, however, address one or more aspects of the U.S. energy market. The most recent projection from IHSGI, as well as others that concentrate on economic growth, international oil prices, energy consumption, electricity, natural gas, petroleum, and coal, are compared here with the AEO2009 projections. Economic Growth Projections of the average annual real GDP growth rate for the United States from 2007 through 2010 range from 0.2 percent to 3.1 percent (Table 15). Real GDP grows at an annual rate of 0.6 percent in the AEO2009 reference case over the period, significantly lower than the projections made by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), and the Social Security Administration (SSA)although not all of those projections have been updated to take account of the current economic downturn. The AEO2009 projection is slightly lower than the projection by IHSGI and slightly higher than the projection by the Interindustry Forecasting Project at the University of Maryland (INFORUM). In March 2009, the consensus Blue Chip projection was for 2.2-percent average annual growth from 2007 to 2010.
Waste generation forecast for DOE-ORO`s Environmental Restoration OR-1 Project: FY 1995-FY 2002, September 1994 revision
A comprehensive waste-forecasting task was initiated in FY 1991 to provide a consistent, documented estimate of the volumes of waste expected to be generated as a result of U.S. Department of Energy-Oak Ridge Operations (DOE-ORO) Environmental Restoration (ER) OR-1 Project activities. Continual changes in the scope and schedules for remedial action (RA) and decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) activities have required that an integrated data base system be developed that can be easily revised to keep pace with changes and provide appropriate tabular and graphical output. The output can then be analyzed and used to drive planning assumptions for treatment, storage, and disposal (TSD) facilities. The results of this forecasting effort and a description of the data base developed to support it are provided herein. The initial waste-generation forecast results were compiled in November 1991. Since the initial forecast report, the forecast data have been revised annually. This report reflects revisions as of September 1994.
Not Available
The Societal, Social, and Economic Impacts of the World Weather Research Programme Sydney 2000 Forecast Demonstration Project (WWRP S2000 FDP)
The Sydney 2000 (S2000) Forecast Demonstration Project (FDP) was initiated by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) to enable the world meteorological community to cooperatively demonstrate advanced ...
Linda Anderson-Berry; Tom Keenan; John Bally; Roger Pielke Jr.; Roy Leigh; David King
A Frequent-Updating Analysis System Based on Radar, Surface, and Mesoscale Model Data for the Beijing 2008 Forecast Demonstration Project
The Variational Doppler Radar Analysis System (VDRAS) was implemented in Beijing, China, and contributed to the Beijing 2008 Forecast Demonstration Project (B08FDP) in support of the Beijing Summer Olympics. VDRAS is a four-dimensional ...
Juanzhen Sun; Mingxuan Chen; Yingchun Wang
A Framework for Assessing Operational Madden�Julian Oscillation Forecasts: A CLIVAR MJO Working Group Project
The U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) MJO Working Group (MJOWG) has taken steps to promote the adoption of a uniform diagnostic and set of skill metrics for analyzing and assessing dynamical forecasts of the MJO. Here we ...
J. Gottschalck; M. Wheeler; K. Weickmann; F. Vitart; N. Savage; H. Lin; H. Hendon; D. Waliser; K. Sperber; M. Nakagawa; C. Prestrelo; M. Flatau; W. Higgins
Spatial Forecast Verification Methods Intercomparison Project: Application of the SAL Technique
In this study, a recently introduced feature-based quality measure called SAL, which provides information about the structure, amplitude, and location of a quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) in a prespecified domain, is applied to ...
Heini Wernli; Christiane Hofmann; Matthias Zimmer
Final Report on California Regional Wind Energy Forecasting Project:Application of NARAC Wind Prediction System
DOE Green Energy (OSTI)
Wind power is the fastest growing renewable energy technology and electric power source (AWEA, 2004a). This renewable energy has demonstrated its readiness to become a more significant contributor to the electricity supply in the western U.S. and help ease the power shortage (AWEA, 2000). The practical exercise of this alternative energy supply also showed its function in stabilizing electricity prices and reducing the emissions of pollution and greenhouse gases from other natural gas-fired power plants. According to the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), the world's winds could theoretically supply the equivalent of 5800 quadrillion BTUs of energy each year, which is 15 times current world energy demand (AWEA, 2004b). Archer and Jacobson (2005) also reported an estimation of the global wind energy potential with the magnitude near half of DOE's quote. Wind energy has been widely used in Europe; it currently supplies 20% and 6% of Denmark's and Germany's electric power, respectively, while less than 1% of U.S. electricity is generated from wind (AWEA, 2004a). The production of wind energy in California ({approx}1.2% of total power) is slightly higher than the national average (CEC & EPRI, 2003). With the recently enacted Renewable Portfolio Standards calling for 20% of renewables in California's power generation mix by 2010, the growth of wind energy would become an important resource on the electricity network. Based on recent wind energy research (Roulston et al., 2003), accurate weather forecasting has been recognized as an important factor to further improve the wind energy forecast for effective power management. To this end, UC-Davis (UCD) and LLNL proposed a joint effort through the use of UCD's wind tunnel facility and LLNL's real-time weather forecasting capability to develop an improved regional wind energy forecasting system. The current effort of UC-Davis is aimed at developing a database of wind turbine power curves as a function of wind speed and direction, using its wind tunnel facility at the windmill farm at the Altamont Pass. The main objective of LLNL's involvement is to provide UC-Davis with improved wind forecasts to drive the parameterization scheme of turbine power curves developed from the wind tunnel facility. Another objective of LLNL's effort is to support the windmill farm operation with real-time wind forecasts for the effective energy management. The forecast skill in capturing the situation to meet the cut-in and cutout speed of given turbines would help reduce the operation cost in low and strong wind scenarios, respectively. The main focus of this report is to evaluate the wind forecast errors of LLNL's three-dimensional real-time weather forecast model at the location with the complex terrain. The assessment of weather forecast accuracy would help quantify the source of wind energy forecast errors from the atmospheric forecast model and/or wind-tunnel module for further improvement in the wind energy forecasting system.
Chin, H S
Forecasting new product penetration with flexible substitution patterns
choice model for forecasting demand for alternative-fuel7511, Urban Travel Demand Forecasting Project, Institute of89 (1999) 109�129 Forecasting new product penetration with ?
Brownstone, David; Train, Kenneth
7511, Urban Travel Demand Forecasting Project, Institute ofchoice model for forecasting demand for alternative-fuel89 (1999) 109�129 Forecasting new product penetration with
Wind Energy Management System EMS Integration Project: Incorporating Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations
The power system balancing process, which includes the scheduling, real time dispatch (load following) and regulation processes, is traditionally based on deterministic models. Since the conventional generation needs time to be committed and dispatched to a desired megawatt level, the scheduling and load following processes use load and wind and solar power production forecasts to achieve future balance between the conventional generation and energy storage on the one side, and system load, intermittent resources (such as wind and solar generation), and scheduled interchange on the other side. Although in real life the forecasting procedures imply some uncertainty around the load and wind/solar forecasts (caused by forecast errors), only their mean values are actually used in the generation dispatch and commitment procedures. Since the actual load and intermittent generation can deviate from their forecasts, it becomes increasingly unclear (especially, with the increasing penetration of renewable resources) whether the system would be actually able to meet the conventional generation requirements within the look-ahead horizon, what the additional balancing efforts would be needed as we get closer to the real time, and what additional costs would be incurred by those needs. To improve the system control performance characteristics, maintain system reliability, and minimize expenses related to the system balancing functions, it becomes necessary to incorporate the predicted uncertainty ranges into the scheduling, load following, and, in some extent, into the regulation processes. It is also important to address the uncertainty problem comprehensively by including all sources of uncertainty (load, intermittent generation, generators� forced outages, etc.) into consideration. All aspects of uncertainty such as the imbalance size (which is the same as capacity needed to mitigate the imbalance) and generation ramping requirement must be taken into account. The latter unique features make this work a significant step forward toward the objective of incorporating of wind, solar, load, and other uncertainties into power system operations. Currently, uncertainties associated with wind and load forecasts, as well as uncertainties associated with random generator outages and unexpected disconnection of supply lines, are not taken into account in power grid operation. Thus, operators have little means to weigh the likelihood and magnitude of upcoming events of power imbalance. In this project, funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), a framework has been developed for incorporating uncertainties associated with wind and load forecast errors, unpredicted ramps, and forced generation disconnections into the energy management system (EMS) as well as generation dispatch and commitment applications. A new approach to evaluate the uncertainty ranges for the required generation performance envelope including balancing capacity, ramping capability, and ramp duration has been proposed. The approach includes three stages: forecast and actual data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of future grid balancing requirements for specified time horizons and confidence levels. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on a histogram analysis, incorporating all sources of uncertainties of both continuous (wind and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and start-up failures) nature. A new method called the �flying brick� technique has been developed to evaluate the look-ahead required generation performance envelope for the worst case scenario within a user-specified confidence level. A self-validation algorithm has been developed to validate the accuracy of the confidence intervals.
Makarov, Yuri V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian; Guttromson, Ross T.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Chakrabarti, Bhujanga B.
The ANEMOS Project: Next Generation Forecasting of Wind Power. G.Kariniotakis*
integration of wind energy in the developing liberalized electricity markets. Keywords - Wind power, short-resolution meteorological forecasts. For the offshore case, marine meteorology is considered as well as information will allow validation of the models and an analysis of the value of wind prediction for a competitive
Heinemann, Detlev
Forecast Correlation Coefficient Matrix of Stock Returns in Portfolio Analysis
Unadjusted Forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Unadjusted Forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Zhao, Feng
SOLERAS - Solar-Powered Water Desalination Project at Yanbu: Forecasting models for operating and maintenance cost of the pilot plant
This study was conducted in cooperation with the Department of Industrial Engineering of King Abdulaziz University. The main objective of this study is to meet some of the goals of the Solar Energy Water Desalination Plant (SEWDP) plan in the area of economic evaluation. The first part of this project focused on describing the existing trend in the operation and maintenance (OandM) cost for the SOLERAS Solar Energy Water Desalination Plant in Yanbu. The second part used the information obtained on existing trends to find suitable forecasting models. These models, which are found here, are sensitive to changes in costs trends. Nevertheless, the study presented here has established the foundation for (OandM) costs estimating in the plant. The methodologies used in this study should continue as more data on operation and maintenance costs become available, because, in the long run, the trend in costs will help determine where cost effectiveness might be improved. 7 refs., 24 figs., 15 tabs.
Al-Idrisi, M.; Hamad, G.
Forecast Technical Document Forecast Types
Forecast Technical Document Forecast Types A document describing how different forecast types are implemented in the 2011 Production Forecast system. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley Halsall #12;PF2011 Forecast Types Background Different `types' of forecast are possible for a specified area
Projecting net incomes for Texas crop producers: an application of probabilistic forecasting
Agricultural policy changes directly affect the economic viability of Texas crop producers because government payments make up a significant portion of their net farm income (NFI). NFI projections benefit producers, agribusinesses and policy makers, but an economic model making these projections for Texas did not previously exist. The objective of this study was to develop a model to project annual NFI for producers of major crops in Texas. The Texas crop model was developed to achieve this objective, estimating state prices, yields and production costs as a function of their national counterparts. Five hundred iterations of national price and yield projections from the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI), along with FAPRI��?s average production cost projections, were used as input to the Texas crop model. The stochastic FAPRI Baseline and residuals for Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) equations relating Texas variables to national variables were used to incorporate the risk left unexplained by OLS equations between Texas and U.S. variables. Deterministic and probabilistic NFI projections for Texas crops were compared under the January 2005 and January 2006 FAPRI Baseline projections. With production costs increasing considerably and prices rising moderately in the January 2006 Baseline, deterministic projections of 2006-2014 Texas NFI decreased by an average of 26 percent for corn, 3 percent for cotton, 15 percent for peanuts, and 12 percent for rice, and were negative for sorghum and wheat. Probability distributions of projected NFI fell for all program crops, especially sorghum and wheat. Higher hay price projections caused deterministic projections of NFI for hay to rise roughly 13 percent, and increased the probability distributions of projected hay NFI. Deterministic and probabilistic projections of total NFI decreased for each year, especially for 2006-2008 when fuel price projections were the highest. The Texas crop model can be used to simulate NFI for Texas crop producers under alternative FAPRI baselines. The model shows the impact of baseline changes on probability distributions of NFI for each crop and for Texas as a whole. It can also be useful as a policy analysis tool to compare impacts of alternative farm and macroeconomic policies on NFI.
Eggerman, Christopher Ryan
1993 Pacific Northwest Loads and Resources Study, Pacific Northwest Economic and Electricity Use Forecast, Technical Appendix: Volume 1.
This publication documents the load forecast scenarios and assumptions used to prepare BPA`s Whitebook. It is divided into: intoduction, summary of 1993 Whitebook electricity demand forecast, conservation in the load forecast, projection of medium case electricity sales and underlying drivers, residential sector forecast, commercial sector forecast, industrial sector forecast, non-DSI industrial forecast, direct service industry forecast, and irrigation forecast. Four appendices are included: long-term forecasts, LTOUT forecast, rates and fuel price forecasts, and forecast ranges-calculations.
United States. Bonneville Power Administration.
Toward a Monitoring and Forecasting System For Atmospheric Composition: The GEMS Project
The Global and Regional Earth System Monitoring Using Satellite and In Situ Data (GEMS) project is combining the manifold expertise in atmospheric composition research and numerical weather prediction of 32 European institutes to build a ...
A. Hollingsworth; R. J. Engelen; A. Benedetti; A. Dethof; J. Flemming; J. W. Kaiser; J-J. Morcrette; A. J. Simmons; C. Textor; O. Boucher; F. Chevallier; P. Rayner; H. Elbern; H. Eskes; C. Granier; V-H. Peuch; L. Rouil; M. G. Schultz
Toward Seamless Prediction: Calibration of Climate Change Projections Using Seasonal Forecasts
Trustworthy probabilistic projections of regional climate are essential for society to plan for future climate change, and yet, by the nonlinear nature of climate, finite computational models of climate are inherently deficient in their ability ...
T. N. Palmer; F. J. Doblas-Reyes; A. Weisheimer; M. J. Rodwell
GRI baseline projection: Forecast summary 1996 edition. Topical report, January-December 1995
The report summarizes the 1996 Edition of the GRI Baseline Projection. DRI/McGraw-Hill`s Energy Group (DRI) maintains an energy modeling system for the Gas Research Institute (GRI) that is used to produce an annual projection of the supply and demand for energy by regions in the United States. The 1996 Edition of the GRI Baseline Projection is produced using several different models. The models analyze various pieces of the U.S. energy markets and their solutions are based on a framework of exogenous assumptions provided by GRI. The report describes the integration and solution procedures of the models and the assumptions used to produce the 1995 Edition of the GRI Gaseline Projection.
Baxter, R.P.; Mendelsohn, M.; Nottingham, R.P.; Rhodes, M.R.
Forecast Prices
Notes: Notes: Prices have already recovered from the spike, but are expected to remain elevated over year-ago levels because of the higher crude oil prices. There is a lot of uncertainty in the market as to where crude oil prices will be next winter, but our current forecast has them declining about $2.50 per barrel (6 cents per gallon) from today's levels by next October. U.S. average residential heating oil prices peaked at almost $1.50 as a result of the problems in the Northeast this past winter. The current forecast has them peaking at $1.08 next winter, but we will be revisiting the outlook in more detail next fall and presenting our findings at the annual Winter Fuels Conference. Similarly, diesel prices are also expected to fall. The current outlook projects retail diesel prices dropping about 14 cents per gallon
RACORO Forecasting
NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)
Weather Briefings Observed Weather Cloud forecasting models BUFKIT forecast soundings + guidance from Norman NWS enhanced pages and discussions NAM-WRF updated...
Implementing Innovation in Planning Practice: The Case of Travel Demand Forecasting
Urban Travel Demand Forecasting Project. Institute ofTRB. Metropolitan Travel Forecasting: Current Practice andPurvis. Regional Travel Forecasting Model System for the San
Newmark, Gregory Louis
Forecasting Forecast Skill
We have shown that it is possible to predict the skill of numerical weather forecasts�a quantity which is variable from day to day and region to region. This has been accomplished using as predictor the dispersion (measured by the average ...
Eugenia Kalnay; Amnon Dalcher
Forecast Combinations
Forecast combinations have frequently been found in empirical studies to produce better forecasts on average than methods based on the ex-ante best individual forecasting model. Moreover, simple combinations that ignore correlations between forecast errors often dominate more refined combination schemes aimed at estimating the theoretically optimal combination weights. In this chapter we analyze theoretically the factors that determine the advantages from combining forecasts (for example, the degree of correlation between forecast errors and the relative size of the individual models� forecast error variances). Although the reasons for the success of simple combination schemes are poorly understood, we discuss several possibilities related to model misspecification, instability (non-stationarities) and estimation error in situations where thenumbersofmodelsislargerelativetothe available sample size. We discuss the role of combinations under asymmetric loss and consider combinations of point, interval and probability forecasts. Key words: Forecast combinations; pooling and trimming; shrinkage methods; model misspecification, diversification gains
Allan Timmermann; Jel Codes C
Waste Generation Forecast for DOE-ORO`s Environmental Restoration OR-1 Project: FY 1994--FY 2001. Environmental Restoration Program, September 1993 Revision
This Waste Generation Forecast for DOE-ORO`s Environmental Restoration OR-1 Project. FY 1994--FY 2001 is the third in a series of documents that report current estimates of the waste volumes expected to be generated as a result of Environmental Restoration activities at Department of Energy, Oak Ridge Operations Office (DOE-ORO), sites. Considered in the scope of this document are volumes of waste expected to be generated as a result of remedial action and decontamination and decommissioning activities taking place at these sites. Sites contributing to the total estimates make up the DOE-ORO Environmental Restoration OR-1 Project: the Oak Ridge K-25 Site, the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, the Y-12 Plant, the Paducah Gaseous Diffusion Plant, the Portsmouth Gaseous Diffusion Plant, and the off-site contaminated areas adjacent to the Oak Ridge facilities (collectively referred to as the Oak Ridge Reservation Off-Site area). Estimates are available for the entire fife of all waste generating activities. This document summarizes waste estimates forecasted for the 8-year period of FY 1994-FY 2001. Updates with varying degrees of change are expected throughout the refinement of restoration strategies currently in progress at each of the sites. Waste forecast data are relatively fluid, and this document represents remediation plans only as reported through September 1993.
Forecasting overview
Forecasting is required in many situations: deciding whether to build another power generation plant in the next five years requires forecasts of future demand; scheduling staff in a call centre next week requires forecasts of call volume; stocking an inventory requires forecasts of stock requirements. Forecasts can be required several years in advance (for the case of capital investments), or only a few minutes beforehand (for telecommunication routing). Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. Some things are easier to forecast than others. The time of the sunrise tomorrow morning can be forecast very precisely. On the other hand, currency exchange rates are very difficult to forecast with any accuracy. The predictability of an event or a quantity depends on how well we understand the factors that contribute to it, and how much unexplained variability is involved. Forecasting situations vary widely in their time horizons, factors determining actual outcomes, types of data patterns, and many other aspects. Forecasting methods can be very simple such as using the most recent observation as a forecast (which is called the �na�ve method�), or highly complex such as neural nets and econometric systems of simultaneous equations. The
Rob J Hyndman
Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation
by Esmeralda Sánchez The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has produced an annual evaluation of the accuracy of the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on the prior year by adding the projections from the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. The Forecast Evaluation examines the accuracy of AEO forecasts dating back to AEO82 by calculating the average absolute forecast errors for each of the major variables for AEO82 through AEO2003. The average absolute forecast error, which for the purpose of this report will also be referred to simply as "average error" or "forecast error", is computed as the simple mean, or average, of all the absolute values of the percent errors,
Wind Energy Management System Integration Project Incorporating Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations
The power system balancing process, which includes the scheduling, real time dispatch (load following) and regulation processes, is traditionally based on deterministic models. Since the conventional generation needs time to be committed and dispatched to a desired megawatt level, the scheduling and load following processes use load and wind power production forecasts to achieve future balance between the conventional generation and energy storage on the one side, and system load, intermittent resources (such as wind and solar generation) and scheduled interchange on the other side. Although in real life the forecasting procedures imply some uncertainty around the load and wind forecasts (caused by forecast errors), only their mean values are actually used in the generation dispatch and commitment procedures. Since the actual load and intermittent generation can deviate from their forecasts, it becomes increasingly unclear (especially, with the increasing penetration of renewable resources) whether the system would be actually able to meet the conventional generation requirements within the look-ahead horizon, what the additional balancing efforts would be needed as we get closer to the real time, and what additional costs would be incurred by those needs. In order to improve the system control performance characteristics, maintain system reliability, and minimize expenses related to the system balancing functions, it becomes necessary to incorporate the predicted uncertainty ranges into the scheduling, load following, and, in some extent, into the regulation processes. It is also important to address the uncertainty problem comprehensively, by including all sources of uncertainty (load, intermittent generation, generators� forced outages, etc.) into consideration. All aspects of uncertainty such as the imbalance size (which is the same as capacity needed to mitigate the imbalance) and generation ramping requirement must be taken into account. The latter unique features make this work a significant step forward toward the objective of incorporating of wind, solar, load, and other uncertainties into power system operations. In this report, a new methodology to predict the uncertainty ranges for the required balancing capacity, ramping capability and ramp duration is presented. Uncertainties created by system load forecast errors, wind and solar forecast errors, generation forced outages are taken into account. The uncertainty ranges are evaluated for different confidence levels of having the actual generation requirements within the corresponding limits. The methodology helps to identify system balancing reserve requirement based on a desired system performance levels, identify system �breaking points�, where the generation system becomes unable to follow the generation requirement curve with the user-specified probability level, and determine the time remaining to these potential events. The approach includes three stages: statistical and actual data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of future grid balancing requirements for specified time horizons and confidence intervals. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on a histogram analysis incorporating all sources of uncertainty and parameters of a continuous (wind forecast and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and failures to start up) nature. Preliminary simulations using California Independent System Operator (California ISO) real life data have shown the effectiveness of the proposed approach. A tool developed based on the new methodology described in this report will be integrated with the California ISO systems. Contractual work is currently in place to integrate the tool with the AREVA EMS system.
by Esmeralda Sanchez by Esmeralda Sanchez Errata -(7/14/04) The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has produced an annual evaluation of the accuracy of the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on the prior year by adding the projections from the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. The Forecast Evaluation examines the accuracy of AEO forecasts dating back to AEO82 by calculating the average absolute forecast errors for each of the major variables for AEO82 through AEO2003. The average absolute forecast error, which for the purpose of this report will also be referred to simply as "average error" or "forecast error", is computed as the simple mean, or average, of all the absolute values of the percent errors, expressed as the percentage difference between the Reference Case projection and actual historic value, shown for every AEO and for each year in the forecast horizon (for a given variable). The historical data are typically taken from the Annual Energy Review (AER). The last column of Table 1 provides a summary of the most recent average absolute forecast errors. The calculation of the forecast error is shown in more detail in Tables 2 through 18. Because data for coal prices to electric generating plants were not available from the AER, data from the Monthly Energy Review (MER), July 2003 were used.
Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation by Susan H. Holte In this paper, the Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting (OIAF) of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) evaluates the projections published in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO), (1) by comparing the projections from the Annual Energy Outlook 1982 through the Annual Energy Outlook 2001 with actual historical values. A set of major consumption, production, net import, price, economic, and carbon dioxide emissions variables are included in the evaluation, updating similar papers from previous years. These evaluations also present the reasons and rationales for significant differences. The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has been providing an
Rolling 12 Month Forecast November-2008.xls
Month Exceedence Level: 90% (Dry) First Preference CVP Generation Project Use November 2008 October 2009 November 2008 Twelve-Month Forecast of CVP Generation and Base Resource...
Energy consumption and expenditure projections by income quintile on the basis of the Annual Energy Outlook 1997 forecast
This report presents an analysis of the relative impacts of the base-case scenario used in the Annual Energy Outlook 1997, published by the US Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, on income quintile groups. Projected energy consumption and expenditures, and projected energy expenditures as a share of income, for the period 1993 to 2015 are reported. Projected consumption of electricity, natural gas, distillate fuel, and liquefied petroleum gas over this period is also reported for each income group. 33 figs., 11 tabs.
Poyer, D.A.; Allison, T.
Geothermal wells: a forecast of drilling activity
Numbers and problems for geothermal wells expected to be drilled in the United States between 1981 and 2000 AD are forecasted. The 3800 wells forecasted for major electric power projects (totaling 6 GWe of capacity) are categorized by type (production, etc.), and by location (The Geysers, etc.). 6000 wells are forecasted for direct heat projects (totaling 0.02 Quads per year). Equations are developed for forecasting the number of wells, and data is presented. Drilling and completion problems in The Geysers, The Imperial Valley, Roosevelt Hot Springs, the Valles Caldera, northern Nevada, Klamath Falls, Reno, Alaska, and Pagosa Springs are discussed. Likely areas for near term direct heat projects are identified.
Brown, G.L.; Mansure, A.J.; Miewald, J.N.
Solar forecasting review
of Solar Forecasting . . . . . . . . . 2.4.1 Solarbudget at the foundation of satellite based forecastingWeather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model 7.1 Global
Inman, Richard Headen
Title of Paper Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Title of Paper Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation by Susan H. Holte OIAF has been providing an evaluation of the forecasts in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) annually since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on that of the prior year by adding the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. However, the underlying reasons for deviations between the projections and realized history tend to be the same from one evaluation to the next. The most significant conclusions are: Natural gas has generally been the fuel with the least accurate forecasts of consumption, production, and prices. Natural gas was the last fossil fuel to be deregulated following the strong regulation of energy markets in the 1970s and early 1980s. Even after deregulation, the behavior
NFI Forecasts Methodology NFI Forecasts Methodology
NFI Forecasts Methodology NFI Forecasts Methodology Overview Issued by: National Forest email@example.com Website: www.forestry.gov.uk/inventory 1 NFI Softwood Forecasts Methodology Overview #12;NFI Forecasts ........................................................................................................4 Rationale behind the new approach to the GB Private sector production forecast ........4 Volume
Forecast Technical Document Restocking in the Forecast
Forecast Technical Document Restocking in the Forecast A document describing how restocking of felled areas is handled in the 2011 Production Forecast. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley in the forecast Background During the period of a production forecast it is assumed that, as forest sub
> BUREAU HOME > AUSTRALIA > QUEENSLAND > FORECASTS BRISBANE FORECAST IMPROVEMENTS The Bureau of Meteorology is progressively upgrading its forecast system to provide more detailed forecasts across Australia. From October 2013 new and improved 7 day forecasts will be introduced for Brisbane, Gold Coast
Greenslade, Diana
Another Approach to Forecasting Forecast Skill
The skill of a medium-range numerical forecast can fluctuate widely from day to day. Providing an a priori estimate of the skill of the forecast is therefore important. Existing approaches include Monte Carlo Forecasting and Lagged Average ...
W. Y. Chen
Real &me numerical forecast of global epidemic spreading using large-scale computa&onal models
Real &me numerical forecast of global epidemic spreading using large conditions). Forecast = best prediction given the present knowledge on the system. Projection = attempt functionalities) #12;Real time forecast for the H1N1pdm (2009) Key parameters
Cattuto, Ciro
Contract/Project Management
Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site
1 ContractProject Management Primary Performance Metrics FY 2011 Target FY 2011 Forecast FY 2011 Pre- & Post-CAP Forecast Comment 1a. Capital Asset Line Item Projects:...
and Targets 1 ContractProject Management Performance Metric FY 2012 Target FY 2012 Forecast FY 2012 Pre- & Post-CAP Forecast Comment Capital Asset Project Success: Complete 90%...
EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data
H Tables H Tables Appendix H Comparisons With Other Forecasts, and Performance of Past IEO Forecasts for 1990, 1995, and 2000 Forecast Comparisons Three organizations provide forecasts comparable with those in the International Energy Outlook 2005 (IEO2005). The International Energy Agency (IEA) provides business as usual projections to the year 2030 in its World Energy Outlook 2004; Petroleum Economics, Ltd. (PEL) publishes world energy forecasts to 2025; and Petroleum Industry Research Associates (PIRA) provides projections to 2015. For this comparison, 2002 is used as the base year for all the forecasts, and the comparisons extend to 2025. Although IEAs forecast extends to 2030, it does not publish a projection for 2025. In addition to forecasts from other organizations, the IEO2005 projections are also compared with those in last years report (IEO2004). Because 2002 data were not available when IEO2004 forecasts were prepared, the growth rates from IEO2004 are computed from 2001.
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ELECTRICITY DEMAND FORECAST COMPARISON REPORT STAFFREPORT June 2005 ..............................................................................3 Residential Forecast Comparison ..............................................................................................5 Nonresidential Forecast Comparisons
Environment - Analysis & Projections - U.S. Energy ...
U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
Analysis & Projections. Monthly and yearly energy forecasts, analysis of energy topics, financial analysis, Congressional reports. Markets & ...
Electricity - Analysis & Projections - U.S. Energy ...
Analysis & Projections - U.S. Energy Information ...
The Forecast Gap: Linking Forwards and Forecasts
This report addresses a common problem in price forecasting: What to do when confronted with a persistent gap between results obtained from a structural forecast model and actual forward or spot prices? The report examines examples taken from natural gas and electric power forecasts and presents a novel approach to closing this �forecast gap.� Inspection reveals that the ratio of actual prices to forecast prices often exhibits stochastic movements that resemble those of commodity price movements. By usin...
Post-construction evaluation of traffic forecast accuracy Pavithra Parthasarathi , David Levinson
Post-construction evaluation of traffic forecast accuracy Pavithra Parthasarathi �?, David Levinson: Transportation demand forecasting Project evaluation Forecast accuracy Model evaluation a b s t r a c t This research evaluates the accuracy of demand forecasts using a sample of recently-completed projects
Levinson, David M.
by by Esmeralda Sanchez The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has been providing an evaluation of the forecasts in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) annually since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on that of the prior year by adding the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. However, the underlying reasons for deviations between the projections and realized history tend to be the same from one evaluation to the next. The most significant conclusions are: * Over the last two decades, there have been many significant changes in laws, policies, and regulations that could not have been anticipated and were not assumed in the projections prior to their implementation. Many of these actions have had significant impacts on energy supply, demand, and prices; however, the
Forecasting in Meteorology
Public weather forecasting heralded the beginning of modern meteorology less than 150 years ago. Since then, meteorology has been largely a forecasting discipline. Thus, forecasting could have easily been used to test and develop hypotheses, ...
C. S. Ramage
Evaluating the Cloud Cover Forecast of NCEP Global Forecast System with Satellite Observation
To assess the quality of daily cloud cover forecast generated by the operational global numeric model, the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS), we compose a large sample with outputs from GFS model and satellite observations from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) in the period of July 2004 to June 2008, to conduct a quantitative and systematic assessment of the performance of a cloud model that covers a relatively long range of time, basic cloud types, and in a global view. The evaluation has revealed the goodness of the model forecast, which further illustrates our completeness on understanding cloud generation mechanism. To quantity the result, we found a remarkably high correlation between the model forecasts and the satellite observations over the entire globe, with mean forecast error less than 15% in most areas. Considering a forecast within 30% difference to the observation to be a "good" one, we find that the probability for the GFS model to make good forecasts varies between...
Ye, Quanzhi
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2006-2016 STAFF ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST Demand Forecast report is the product of the efforts of many current and former California Energy Commission staff. Staff contributors to the current forecast are: Project Management and Technical Direction
The relativistic velocity addition law optimizes a forecast gambler's profit
We extend the projective covariant bookmaker's bets model to the forecasting gamblers case. The probability of correctness of forecasts shifts probabilities of branching. The formula for the shift of probabilities leads to the velocity addition rule of the special theory of relativity. In the absence of information about bookmaker's wagers the stochastic logarithmic rates completely determines the optimal stakes of forecast gambler.
Piotrowski, Edward W
Post-Construction Evaluation of Forecast Accuracy Pavithra Parthasarathi1
Post-Construction Evaluation of Forecast Accuracy Pavithra Parthasarathi1 David Levinson 2 February the accuracy of demand forecasts using a sample of recently-completed projects in Minnesota and identifies the factors influencing the inaccuracy in forecasts. The fore- cast traffic data for this study is drawn from
The Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project
Over the decade prior to 2007, the increasing vulnerability of the United States to damage and economic disruption from tropical storms and hurricanes was dramatically demonstrated by the impacts of a number of land-falling storms. In 2008, the National ...
Robert Gall; James Franklin; Frank Marks; Edward N. Rappaport; Frederick Toepfer
Evaluation Evaluation Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation by Esmeralda Sanchez The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has been providing an evaluation of the forecasts in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) annually since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on that of the prior year by adding the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. However, the underlying reasons for deviations between the projections and realized history tend to be the same from one evaluation to the next. The most significant conclusions are: Over the last two decades, there have been many significant changes in laws, policies, and regulations that could not have been anticipated and were not assumed in the projections prior to their implementation. Many of these actions have had significant impacts on energy supply, demand, and prices; however, the impacts were not incorporated in the AEO projections until their enactment or effective dates in accordance with EIA's requirement to remain policy neutral and include only current laws and regulations in the AEO reference case projections.
Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation 2005
Forecast Evaluation 2005 Forecast Evaluation 2005 Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation 2005 Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation 2005 * Then Energy Information Administration (EIA) produces projections of energy supply and demand each year in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO). The projections in the AEO are not statements of what will happen but of what might happen, given the assumptions and methodologies used. The projections are business-as-usual trend projections, given known technology, technological and demographic trends, and current laws and regulations. Thus, they provide a policy-neutral reference case that can be used to analyze policy initiatives. EIA does not propose or advocate future legislative and regulatory changes. All laws are assumed to remain as currently enacted; however, the impacts of emerging regulatory changes, when defined, are reflected.
Forecast U.S. Distillate Stocks
EIA is not projecting a large recovery over the summer, but because refineries are forecast to run at high utilization rates, they may produce more distillate than expected and...
Western Area Power Administration Starting Forecast Month: Sierra...
Starting Forecast Month: Sierra Nevada Region Through Values at Load Center (Tracy Substation) Reg & Res CVP Maximum Capability CVP Energy Generation Peak Project Use Demand...
Month CVP Generation Project Use First Preference Purchases and Exchanges Base Resource January 2014 Twelve-Month Forecast of CVP Generation and Base Resource January 2014 December...
California Wind Energy Forecasting System Development and Testing Phase 2: 12-Month Testing
This report describes results from the second phase of the California Wind Energy Forecasting System Development and Testing Project.
EIA projections of coal supply and demand
Contents of this report include: EIA projections of coal supply and demand which covers forecasted coal supply and transportation, forecasted coal demand by consuming sector, and forecasted coal demand by the electric utility sector; and policy discussion.
Klein, D.E.
Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast Introduction..................................................................................................................................... 1
Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast Introduction................................................................................................................................. 3 Price Forecasts............................................................................................................................... 12 Oil Price Forecast Range
Verification of a Mesoscale Data-Assimilation and Forecasting System for the Oklahoma City Area during the Joint Urban 2003 Field Project
The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the U.S. Army Test and Evaluation Command have developed a multiscale, rapid-cycling, real-time, four-dimensional data-assimilation and forecasting system that has been in operational use at ...
Yubao Liu; Fei Chen; Thomas Warner; Jeffrey Basara
Annual Energy Outlook 2001 - Forecast Comparisons
Forecast Comparisons Forecast Comparisons Economic Growth World Oil Prices Total Energy Consumption Residential and Commercial Sectors Industrial Sector Transportation Sector Electricity Natural Gas Petroleum Coal Three other organizationsStandard & Poors DRI (DRI), the WEFA Group (WEFA), and the Gas Research Institute (GRI) [95]also produce comprehensive energy projections with a time horizon similar to that of AEO2001. The most recent projections from those organizations (DRI, Spring/Summer 2000; WEFA, 1st Quarter 2000; GRI, January 2000), as well as other forecasts that concentrate on petroleum, natural gas, and international oil markets, are compared here with the AEO2001 projections. Economic Growth Differences in long-run economic forecasts can be traced primarily to
Forecasts, Meteorology Services, Environmental Sciences Department
Forecasts Short Term Forecast Suffolk County Northern Nassau Southern Nassau Area Forecast Discussion - OKX Area Forecast Discussion - NYS Area Forecast Discussion Mount Holly Area...
Nuclear & Uranium - Analysis & Projections - U.S. Energy ...
Markets & Finance - Analysis & Projections - U.S. Energy ...
Natural Gas - Analysis & Projections - U.S. Energy ...
Texas Wind Energy Forecasting System Development and Testing, Phase 1: Initial Testing
This report describes initial results from the Texas Wind Energy Forecasting System Development and Testing Project at a 75-MW wind project in west Texas.
Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation 2004
2004 2004 * The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) has produced annual evaluations of the accuracy of the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on the prior year by adding the projections from the most recent AEO and replacing the historical year of data with the most recent. The forecast evaluation examines the accuracy of AEO forecasts dating back to AEO82 by calculating the average absolute percent errors for several of the major variables for AEO82 through AEO2004. (There is no report titled Annual Energy Outlook 1988 due to a change in the naming convention of the AEOs.) The average absolute percent error is the simple mean of the absolute values of the percentage difference between the Reference Case projection and the
Verifying Forecasts Spatially
Numerous new methods have been proposed for using spatial information to better quantify and diagnose forecast performance when forecasts and observations are both available on the same grid. The majority of the new spatial verification methods can be ...
Eric Gilleland; David A. Ahijevych; Barbara G. Brown; Elizabeth E. Ebert
Forecasting of Supercooled Clouds
Using parameterizations of cloud microphysics, a technique to forecast supercooled cloud events is suggested. This technique can be coupled on the mesoscale with a prognostic equation for cloud water to improve aircraft icing forecasts. The ...
Andr� Tremblay; Anna Glazer; Wanda Szyrmer; George Isaac; Isztar Zawadzki
Time Series and Forecasting
Time Series and Forecasting. Leigh, Stefan and Perlman, S. (1991). "An Index for Comovement of Time Sequences With ...
1 THE PITTSBURGH REMI MODEL: LONG-TERM REMI MODEL FORECAST FOR ALLEGHENY COUNTY AND THE PITTSBURGH made. REMI LONG-TERM FORECAST AND BEA PROJECTIONS This report includes UCSUR's 1998 economic and population projections for the Pittsburgh Region. The purpose of UCSUR's long-term regional forecasts
Sibille, Etienne
Forecast Technical Document Volume Increment
Forecast Technical Document Volume Increment Forecasts A document describing how volume increment is handled in the 2011 Production Forecast. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley Halsall #12;PF2011 Volume increment forecasts Background A volume increment forecast is a fundamental output of the forecast
Forecast Skill of the Madden�Julian Oscillation in Two Canadian Atmospheric Models
The output of two global atmospheric models participating in the second phase of the Canadian Historical Forecasting Project (HFP2) is utilized to assess the forecast skill of the Madden�Julian oscillation (MJO). The two models are the third ...
Hai Lin; Gilbert Brunet; Jacques Derome
Climate Variability over the Tropical Indian Ocean Sector in the NSIPP Seasonal Forecast System
Prospects for forecasting Indian dipole mode (IDM) events with lead times of a season or more are examined using the NASA Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP) coupled-model forecast system. The mean climatology of the system over ...
Roxana C. Wajsowicz
Spatial Forecast Verification: Baddeley�s Delta Metric Applied to the ICP Test Cases
A mathematical displacement metric, Baddeley�s ?, is examined for verifying gridded forecasts against gridded observations using the Spatial Forecast Verification Methods Intercomparison Project test cases. Results are compared with several other ...
Eric Gilleland
A Method for Eliciting, Preserving, and Sharing the Knowledge of Forecasters
As in many domains of modern work, a concern in weather forecasting is the loss of expertise, due either to reassignment or retirement. This note reports upon a project that demonstrates a procedure that can be used to capture forecasters' ...
Robert R. Hoffman; John W. Coffey; Kenneth M. Ford; Joseph D. Novak
Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices
this �hybrid� NYMEX-EIA gas price projection still does notonly a portion of the gas price forecast � through 2010 �of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures
Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan
Application of the Composite Method to the Spatial Forecast Verification Methods Intercomparison Dataset
The composite method is applied to verify a series of idealized and real precipitation forecasts as part of the Spatial Forecast Verification Methods Intercomparison Project. The test cases range from simple geometric shapes to high-resolution (...
Jason E. Nachamkin
ANL Wind Power Forecasting and Electricity Markets | Open Energy
ANL Wind Power Forecasting and Electricity Markets ANL Wind Power Forecasting and Electricity Markets Jump to: navigation, search Logo: Wind Power Forecasting and Electricity Markets Name Wind Power Forecasting and Electricity Markets Agency/Company /Organization Argonne National Laboratory Partner Institute for Systems and Computer Engineering of Porto (INESC Porto) in Portugal, Midwest Independent System Operator and Horizon Wind Energy LLC, funded by U.S. Department of Energy Sector Energy Focus Area Wind Topics Pathways analysis, Technology characterizations Resource Type Software/modeling tools Website http://www.dis.anl.gov/project References Argonne National Laboratory: Wind Power Forecasting and Electricity Markets[1] Abstract To improve wind power forecasting and its use in power system and electricity market operations Argonne National Laboratory has assembled a team of experts in wind power forecasting, electricity market modeling, wind farm development, and power system operations.
The Strategy of Professional Forecasting
This paper develops and compares two theories of strategic behavior of professional forecasters. The first theory posits that forecasters compete in a forecasting contest with pre-specified rules. In equilibrium of a winner-take-all contest, forecasts are excessively differentiated. According to the alternative reputational cheap talk theory, forecasters aim at convincing the market that they are well informed. The market evaluates their forecasting talent on the basis of the forecasts and the realized state. If the market expects forecaster honesty, forecasts are shaded toward the prior mean. With correct market expectations, equilibrium forecasts are imprecise but not shaded.
Marco Ottaviani; Peter Norman S�rensen
Wind Energy Forecasting Applications in Texas and California: EPRI - California Energy Commission - U.S. Department of Energy Wind E nergy Forecasting Program: EPRI - California Energy Commission - U.S. Department of Energy Wind Energy Forecasting Progra
This report describes results from the California and Texas Wind Energy Forecasting System Development and Testing Project at three wind plant sites.
Business forecasting methods
Forecasting is a common statistical task in business, where it helps inform decisions about scheduling of production, transportation and personnel, and provides a guide to long-term strategic planning. However, business forecasting is often done poorly and is frequently confused with planning and goals. They are three different things. Forecasting is about predicting the future as accurately as possible, given all the information available including historical data and knowledge of any future events that might impact the forecasts. Goals are what you would like to happen. Goals should be linked to forecasts and plans, but this does not always occur. Too often, goals are set without any plan for how to achieve them, and no forecasts for whether they are realistic. Planning is a response to forecasts and goals. Planning involves determining the appropriate actions that are required to make your forecasts match your goals. Forecasting should be an integral part of the decision-making activities of management, as it can play an important role in many areas of a company. Modern organizations require short-, medium- and long-term forecasts, depending on the specific application.
5.5 ENSEMBLE RE-FORECASTING : IMPROVING MEDIUM-RANGE FORECAST SKILL USING RETROSPECTIVE FORECASTS, Colorado 1. INTRODUCTION Improving weather forecasts is a primary goal of the U.S. National Oceanic predictions has been to improve the accuracy of the numerical forecast models. Much effort has been expended
Hamill, Tom
ORNL integrated forecasting system
This paper describes the integrated system for forecasting electric energy and load. In the system, service area models of electrical energy (kWh) and load distribution (minimum and maximum loads and load duration curve) are linked to a state-level model of electrical energy (kWh). Thus, the service area forecasts are conditional upon the state-level forecasts. Such a linkage reduces considerably the data requirements for modeling service area electricity demand.
Rizy, C.G.
Online 24-h solar power forecasting based on weather typeweather observations at blue hill massachusetts,� Solarof weather patterns on the intensity of solar irradiance;
2.1.2 European Solar Radiation Atlas (ESRA)2.4 Evaluation of Solar Forecasting . . . . . . . . .2.4.1 Solar Variability . . . . . . . . . . . . .
forecast | OpenEI
Browse Upload data GDR Community Login | Sign Up Search Facebook icon Twitter icon forecast Dataset Summary Description The EIA's annual energy outlook (AEO) contains yearly...
Seasonal tropical cyclone forecasts
Seasonal forecasts of tropical cyclone activity in various regions have been developed since the first attempts in the early 1980s by Neville
Suzana J. Camargo; Anthony G. Barnston; Philip J. Klotzbach; Christopher W. Landsea
Probabilistic Forecasts from the National Digital Forecast Database
The Bayesian processor of forecast (BPF) is developed for a continuous predictand. Its purpose is to process a deterministic forecast (a point estimate of the predictand) into a probabilistic forecast (a distribution function, a density function, ...
Roman Krzysztofowicz; W. Britt Evans
Long-Lead Seasonal Forecasts�Where Do We Stand?
The National Weather Service intends to begin routinely issuing long-lead forecasts of 3-month mean U.S. temperature and precipitation by the beginning of 1995. The ability to produce useful forecasts for certain seasons and regions at projection ...
Anthony G. Barnston; Huug M. van den Dool; David R. Rodenhuis; Chester R. Ropelewski; Vernon E. Kousky; Edward A. O'Lenic; Robert E. Livezey; Stephen E. Zebiak; Mark A. Cane; Tim P. Barnett; Nicholas E. Graham; Ming Ji; Ants Leetmaa
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION TRANSPORTATION ENERGY FORECASTS FOR THE 2007 INTEGRATED ENERGY POLICY AND TRANSPORTATION DIVISION B.B. Blevins Executive Director DISCLAIMER This report was prepared by a California has developed longterm forecasts of transportation energy demand as well as projected ranges
Global and Local Skill Forecasts
A skill forecast gives the probability distribution for the error in a forecast. Statistically, Well-founded skill forecasting methods have so far only been applied within the context of simple models. In this paper, the growth of analysis errors ...
P. L. Houtekamer
Distortion Representation of Forecast Errors
Forecast error is decomposed into three components, termed displacement error, amplitude error, mid residual error, respectively. Displacement error measures how much of the forecast error can be accounted for by moving the forecast to best fit ...
Ross N. Hoffman; Zheng Liu; Jean-Francois Louis; Christopher Grassoti
Composite forecasting in commodity systems
Paper No. COMPOSI1E FORECASTING IN CO/Yt.flDITI SYSTfu\\1S1980 .i CfIAPTER COMPOSITE FORECASTING IN COMMOOITY SYSTEMS*to utilizeeconometric .modelsfor forecasting ! ,urposes. The
Johnson, Stanley R; Rausser, Gordon C.
Arnold Schwarzenegger INTEGRATED FORECAST AND
Arnold Schwarzenegger Governor INTEGRATED FORECAST AND RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT (INFORM) FOR NORTHERN; the former with primary contributions in the areas of climate and hydrologic forecasting and the latter Service (NWS) California Nevada River Forecast Center (CNRFC), the California Department of Water
CONSULTANT REPORT DEMAND FORECAST EXPERT PANEL INITIAL forecast, end-use demand modeling, econometric modeling, hybrid demand modeling, energyMahon, Carl Linvill 2012. Demand Forecast Expert Panel Initial Assessment. California Energy
Does the term structure forecast
provides more accurate forecasts of real consumption growth14. Harvey, C.R. (1989): \\Forecasts of economic growth fromC.R. (1993): \\Term structure forecasts economic growth", Fi-
Berardi, Andrea; Torous, Walter
Project Management Primary Performance Metrics FY 2011 Target FY 2011 Actual & Forecast FY 2011 Pre- & Post-CAP Comment 1a. Capital Asset Line Item Projects: (Pre-RCACAP)...
1 ContractProject Management Primary Performance Metrics FY 2010 Target FY 2010 Forecast FY 2010 Pre- & Post-CAP Comment 1a. Capital Asset Line Item Projects: (Pre-RCACAP)...
Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions | Department of Energy
Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions July 20, 2011 - 6:30pm Addthis Stan Calvert Wind Systems Integration Team Lead, Wind & Water Power Program What does this project do? It will increase the accuracy of weather forecast models for predicting substantial changes in winds at heights important for wind energy up to six hours in advance, allowing grid operators to predict expected wind power production. Accurate weather forecasts are critical for making energy sources -- including wind and solar -- dependable and predictable. These forecasts also play an important role in reducing the cost of renewable energy by allowing electricity grid operators to make timely decisions on what reserve generation they need to operate their systems.
Coefficients for Debiasing Forecasts
Skill-score decompositions can be used to analyze the effects of bias on forecasting skill. However, since bias terms are typically squared, and bias is measured in skill-score units rather than in units of the forecasts, such decompositions only ...
Thomas R. Stewart; Patricia Reagan-Cirincione
Evaluating Point Forecasts
Typically, point forecasting methods are compared and assessed by means of an error measure or scoring function, such as the absolute error or the squared error. The individual scores are then averaged over forecast cases, to result in a summary measure of the predictive performance, such as the mean absolute error or the (root) mean squared error. I demonstrate that this common practice can lead to grossly misguided inferences, unless the scoring function and the forecasting task are carefully matched. Effective point forecasting requires that the scoring function be specified ex ante, or that the forecaster receives a directive in the form of a statistical functional, such as the mean or a quantile of the predictive distribution. If the scoring function is specified ex ante, the forecaster can issue the optimal point forecast, namely, the Bayes rule. If the forecaster receives a directive in the form of a functional, it is critical that the scoring function be consistent for it, in the sense that the expect...
Gneiting, Tilmann
Forecasters � Objectives and Strategies ?
This chapter develops a unified modeling framework for analyzing the strategic behavior of forecasters. The theoretical model encompasses reputational objectives, competition for the best accuracy, and bias. Also drawing from the extensive literature on analysts, we review the empirical evidence on strategic forecasting and illustrate how our model can be structurally estimated.
Iv�n Marinovic; Marco Ottaviani; Peter Norman S�rensen
A deterministic air quality forecasting system for Torino urban area, Italy
An urban air quality forecasting system for Torino city has been developed, within the EU funded project FUMAPEX, to support the prevention and management of urban air pollution episodes. The proposed forecasting system is designed to provide stakeholders ... Keywords: Air quality forecasting, Air quality management, Chemical transport models, Urban air pollution, Urban meteorology
S. Finardi; R. De Maria; A. D'Allura; C. Cascone; G. Calori; F. Lollobrigida
Light truck forecasts
The recent dramatic increase in the number of light trucks (109% between 1963 and 1974) has prompted concern about the energy consequences of the growing popularity of the light truck. An estimate of the future number of light trucks is considered to be a reasonable first step in assessing the energy impact of these vehicles. The monograph contains forecasts based on two models and six scenarios. The coefficients for the models have been derived by ordinary least squares regression of national level time series data. The first model is a two stage model. The first stage estimates the number of light trucks and cars (together), and the second stage applies a share's submodel to determine the number of light trucks. The second model is a simultaneous equation model. The two models track one another remarkably well, within about 2%. The scenarios were chosen to be consistent with those used in the Lindsey-Kaufman study Projection of Light Truck Population to Year 2025. Except in the case of the most dismal economic scenario, the number of light trucks is expected to increase from the 1974 level of 0.09 light truck per person to about 0.12 light truck per person in 1995.
Liepins, G.E.
New Concepts in Wind Power Forecasting Models
of the motivations behind the project led by ANL Argonne National Laboratory, together with INESC Porto from a manageable procedure to compute the solution. IV. ENTROPY AND PARZEN WINDOW PDF ESTIMATION The most well into the substation connecting it to the electric power network. Other model's input variables include forecasts
Kemner, Ken
A Multiseason Climate Forecast System at the National Meteorological Center
The Coupled Model Project was established at the National Meteorological Center(NMC)in January l991 to develop a multiseason forecast system based on coupled ocean atmosphere general circulation models. This provided a focus to combine expertise ...
Ming Ji; Arun Kumar; Ants Leetmaa
A New Verification Score for Public Forecasts
CREF, a new verification score for public forecasts, is introduced. This verification score rewards a forecaster who forecasts a rare event accurately. CREF was used to verify local forecasts at the Weather Service Forecast Office (WSFO) in ...
Dean P. Gulezian
Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices
approach to evaluating price risk would be to use suchthe base-case natural gas price forecast, but to alsorange of different plausible price projections, using either
Bolinger, Mark A.
this �hybrid� NYMEX-EIA gas price projection still does notcomparison with fixed- price renewable generation (becauseonly a portion of the gas price forecast � through 2010 �
Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices
range of different plausible price projections, using eitherthat renewables can provide price certainty over even longerof AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures
Bolinger, Mark
· NATIONAL AND GLOBAL FORECASTS · WEST VIRGINIA PROFILES AND FORECASTS · ENERGY · HEALTHCARE Industry Insight: West Virginia Fiscal Forecast 34 CHAPTER 4: WEST ViRGiNiA'S 35 COUNTiES AND MSAs West Forecast Summary 2 CHAPTER 1: THE UNiTED STATES ECONOMY Figure 1.1: United States Real GDP Growth 3 Figure
Mohaghegh, Shahab
1 APPLICATION OF PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS: DECISION MAKING WITH FORECAST UNCERTAINTY Rick Katz.isse.ucar.edu/HP_rick/dmuu.pdf #12;2 QUOTES ON USE OF PROBABILITY FORECASTS · Lao Tzu (Chinese Philosopher) "He who knows does and Value of Probability Forecasts (4) Cost-Loss Decision-Making Model (5) Simulation Example (6) Economic
Katz, Richard
Why are survey forecasts superior to model forecasts?
We investigate two characteristics of survey forecasts that are shown to contribute to their superiority over purely model-based forecasts. These are that the consensus forecasts incorporate the effects of perceived changes in the long-run outlook, as well as embodying departures from the path toward the long-run expectation. Both characteristics on average tend to enhance forecast accuracy. At the level of the individual forecasts, there is scant evidence that the second characteristic enhances forecast accuracy, and the average accuracy of the individual forecasts can be improved by applying a mechanical correction.
Michael P. Clements; Michael P. Clements
LOAD FORECASTING Eugene A. Feinberg
's electricity price forecasting model, produces forecast of gas demand consistent with electric load. #12Gas demand Council's Market Price of Electricity Forecast Natural GasDemand Electric Load Aggregating Natural between the natural gas and electricity and new uses of natural gas emerge. T natural gas forecasts
Feinberg, Eugene A.
Demand Forecast INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY
Demand Forecast INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY A 20-year forecast of electricity demand is a required of any forecast of electricity demand and developing ways to reduce the risk of planning errors that could arise from this and other uncertainties in the planning process. Electricity demand is forecast
Factors Driving Prices & Forecast
This spread is a function of the balance between demand and fresh supply (production and net imports). Finally I will discuss the current forecast for distillate prices this winter...
Modeling and Forecasting Aurora
Modeling the physical processes needed for forecasting space-weather events requires multiscale modeling. This article discusses several modelsresearchers use to treat the various auroral processes that influence space weather.
Dirk Lummerzheim
Valuing Climate Forecast Information
The article describes research opportunities associated with evaluating the characteristics of climate forecasts in settings where sequential decisions are made. Illustrative results are provided for corn production in east central Illinois. ...
Steven T. Sonka; James W. Mjelde; Peter J. Lamb; Steven E. Hollinger; Bruce L. Dixon
European Union Wind Energy Forecasting Model Development and Testing: U.S. Department of Energy -- EPRI Wind Turbine Verification Pr ogram
Wind forecasting can increase the strategic and market values of wind power from large wind facilities. This report summarizes the results of the European Union (EU) wind energy forecasting project and performance testing of the EU wind forecasting model. The testing compared forecast and observed wind speed and generation data from U.S. wind facilities.
Highlights Highlights World energy consumption is projected to increase by 57 percent from 2002 to 2025. Much of the growth in worldwide energy use in the IEO2005 reference case forecast is expected in the countries with emerging economies. Figure 1. World Marketed Energy Consumptiion by Region, 1970-2025. Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Figure Data In the International Energy Outlook 2005 (IEO2005) reference case, world marketed energy consumption is projected to increase on average by 2.0 percent per year over the 23-year forecast horizon from 2002 to 2025slightly lower than the 2.2-percent average annual growth rate from 1970 to 2002. Worldwide, total energy use is projected to grow from 412 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) in 2002 to 553 quadrillion Btu in
Forecasting in the Presence of Level Shifts
accuracy. Journal of Forecasting 19 : 537-560. Hamilton JD.430. Harvey AC. 1989. Forecasting, structural time seriesMH, Timmermann A. 1994. Forecasting stock returns: An
Smith, Aaron
Multivariate Forecast Evaluation And Rationality Testing
1062�1088. MULTIVARIATE FORECASTS Chaudhuri, P. (1996): �OnKingdom. MULTIVARIATE FORECASTS Kirchg�ssner, G. , and U. K.2005): �Estimation and Testing of Forecast Rationality under
Komunjer, Ivana; OWYANG, MICHAEL
Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting 1998
Issues in Midterm Analysis and Forecasting 1998 (Issues) presents a series of nine papers covering topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98), as well as other significant issues in midterm energy markets. AEO98, DOE/EIA-0383(98), published in December 1997, presents national forecasts of energy production, demand, imports, and prices through the year 2020 for five cases -- a reference case and four additional cases that assume higher and lower economic growth and higher and lower world oil prices than in the reference case. The forecasts were prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), using EIA`s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The papers included in Issues describe underlying analyses for the projections in AEO98 and the forthcoming Annual Energy Outlook 1999 and for other products of EIA`s Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. Their purpose is to provide public access to analytical work done in preparation for the midterm projections and other unpublished analyses. Specific topics were chosen for their relevance to current energy issues or to highlight modeling activities in NEMS. 59 figs., 44 tabs.
We examine the accuracy and bias of intrinsic equity prices estimated from three accounting-based valuation models using analyst�s earnings forecasts over a four-year horizon. The models are: (a) the earnings capitalization model, (b) the residual income model without a terminal value, and (c) the residual income model with a terminal value that assumes residual income will grow beyond the horizon at a constant rate determined from the expected residual income growth rate over the forecast horizon. Our analysis is based on valuation errors that are calculated by comparing estimated prices to actual prices. We contribute to the literature by examining whether: (i) the analysts � earnings forecasts convey information about value beyond that conveyed by current earnings, book value and dividends, (ii) the use of firm specific growth rates in terminal value calculations results in more unbiased and accurate valuations than the use of constant growth rates, and (iii) different models perform better under different ex-ante conditions. We find that analysts � earnings forecasts convey information about value beyond that conveyed by current earnings, book values and dividends. Each of the models that we used has valuation errors that decline monotonically as the horizon increases implying that earnings forecasts at each horizon convey new value relevant information. We cannot find a clear advantage to using firm specific growth rates instead of a constant rate of 4 % across all sample
Theodore Sougiannis; Takashi Yaekura
Texas Wind Energy Forecasting System Development and Testing: Phase 2: 12-Month Testing
Wind energy forecasting systems are expected to support system operation in cases where wind generation contributes more than a few percent of total generating capacity. This report presents final results from the Texas Wind Energy Forecasting System Development and Testing Project at a 75-MW wind project in west Texas.
CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 REVISED FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand Robert P. Oglesby Executive Director #12;i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The demand forecast is the combined prepared the commercial sector forecast. Mehrzad Soltani Nia helped prepare the industrial forecast
The possible reasons for the misrepresented long-term climate trends in the seasonal forecasts of HFP2
The climate trend in a dynamical seasonal forecasting system is examined using 33-year multi-model ensemble (MME) forecasts from the second phase of the Canadian Historical Forecasting Project (HFP2). It is found that the warming trend of the ...
XiaoJing Jia; Hai Lin
Construction Safety Forecast for ITER
The International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) project is poised to begin its construction activity. This paper gives an estimate of construction safety as if the experiment was being built in the United States. This estimate of construction injuries and potential fatalities serves as a useful forecast of what can be expected for construction of such a major facility in any country. These data should be considered by the ITER International Team as it plans for safety during the construction phase. Based on average U.S. construction rates, ITER may expect a lost workday case rate of < 4.0 and a fatality count of 0.5 to 0.9 persons per year.
cadwallader, lee charles
Wind Energy Forecasting Technology Update: 2005
The worldwide installed wind generation capacity increased by 25 and reached almost 60,000 MW worldwide during 2005. As wind capacity continues to grow and large regional concentrations of wind generation emerge, utilities and regional transmission organizations will increasingly need accurate same-day and next-day forecasts of wind energy generation to dispatch system generation and transmission resource and anticipate rapid changes of wind generation. The project objective is to summarize the results o...
Consensus Coal Production Forecast for
Consensus Coal Production Forecast for West Virginia 2009-2030 Prepared for the West Virginia Summary 1 Recent Developments 2 Consensus Coal Production Forecast for West Virginia 10 Risks References 27 #12;W.Va. Consensus Coal Forecast Update 2009 iii List of Tables 1. W.Va. Coal Production
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST METHODS REPORT Companion Report to the California Energy Demand 2006-2016 Staff Energy Demand Forecast Report STAFFREPORT June 2005 CEC-400 .......................................................................................................................................1-1 ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING AT THE CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION: AN OVERVIEW
Forecast Technical Document Technical Glossary
Forecast Technical Document Technical Glossary A document defining some of the terms used in the 2011 Production Forecast technical documentation. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley in the Forecast documentation. In some cases, the terms and the descriptions are "industry standard", in others
Forecast Technical Document Tree Species
Forecast Technical Document Tree Species A document listing the tree species included in the 2011 Production Forecast Tom Jenkins Justin Gilbert Ewan Mackie Robert Matthews #12;PF2011 List of tree species The following is the list of species used within the Forecast System. Species are ordered alphabetically
3, 21452173, 2006 Probabilistic forecast
HESSD 3, 21452173, 2006 Probabilistic forecast verification F. Laio and S. Tamea Title Page for probabilistic forecasts of continuous hydrological variables F. Laio and S. Tamea DITIC Department2173, 2006 Probabilistic forecast verification F. Laio and S. Tamea Title Page Abstract Introduction
Paris-Sud XI, Université de
4, 189212, 2007 Forecast and
OSD 4, 189212, 2007 Forecast and analysis assessment through skill scores M. Tonani et al. Title Science Forecast and analysis assessment through skill scores M. Tonani 1 , N. Pinardi 2 , C. Fratianni 1 Forecast and analysis assessment through skill scores M. Tonani et al. Title Page Abstract Introduction
predecessors to forecast stock prices and manage portfolios for approximately 3 years.) We examineFINANCIAL FORECASTING USING GENETIC ALGORITHMS SAM MAHFOUD and GANESH MANI LBS Capital Management entitled Genetic Algorithms for Inductive Learning). Time-series forecasting is a special type
Boetticher, Gary D.
Forecast of auroral activity
A new technique is developed to predict auroral activity based on a sample of over 9000 auroral sites identified in global auroral images obtained by an ultraviolet imager on the NASA Polar satellite during a 6-month period. Four attributes of auroral activity sites are utilized in forecasting
A. T. Y. Lui
Future world oil prices: modeling methodologies and summary of recent forecasts
This paper has three main objectives. First, the various methodologies that have been developed to explain historical oil price changes and forecast future price trends are reviewed and summarized. Second, the paper summarizes recent world oil price forecasts, and, then possible, discusses the methodologies used in formulating those forecasts. Third, utilizing conclusions from the reviews of the modeling methodologies and the recent price forecasts, in combination with an assessment of recent and projected oil market trends, oil price projections are given for the time period 1987 to 2022. The paper argues that modeling methodologies have undergone significant evolution during the past decade as modelers increasingly recognize the complex and constantly changing structure of the world oil market. Unfortunately, at this point in time a consensus about the appropriate methodology to use in formulating oil price forecasts is yet to be reached. There is, however, a general movement toward the opinion that both economic and political factors should be considered when making price projections. Likewise, there is no consensus about future oil price trends. Forecasts differ widely. However, in general, forecasts have been adjusted downwardly in recent years. Further, an overall assessment of the forecasts and recent oil market trends suggests that oil prices will remain constant in real terms for the remainder of the 1980s. Real oil prices are expected to increase by between 2 and 3% during the 1990s and beyond. Forecasters are quick to point out, however, that all forecasts are subject to significant uncertainty. 69 references, 3 figures, 10 tables.
Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Tables
Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Table 2. Total Energy Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 3. Total Petroleum Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 4. Total Natural Gas Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 5. Total Coal Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 6. Total Electricity Sales, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 7. Crude Oil Production, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 8. Natural Gas Production, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 9. Coal Production, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 10. Net Petroleum Imports, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 11. Net Natural Gas Imports, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 12. Net Coal Exports, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 13. World Oil Prices, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 14. Natural Gas Wellhead Prices, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 15. Coal Prices to Electric Utilities, Actual vs. Forecasts
Exploring the Standard Model Exploring the Standard Model       You've heard a lot about the Standard Model and the pieces are hopefully beginning to fall into place. However, even a thorough understanding of the Standard Model is not the end of the story but the beginning. By exploring the structure and details of the Standard Model we encounter new questions. Why do the most fundamental particles have the particular masses we observe? Why aren't they all symmetric? How is the mass of a particle related to the masses of its constituents? Is there any other way of organizing the Standard Model? The activities in this project will elucidate but not answer our questions. The Standard Model tells us how particles behave but not necessarily why they do so. The conversation is only beginning. . . .
Beyond "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast | Department of Energy
Beyond "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast Beyond "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast Beyond "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast December 7, 2012 - 10:00am Addthis The Energy Department is investing in better solar forecasting techniques to improve the reliability and stability of solar power plants during periods of cloud coverage. | Photo by Dennis Schroeder/NREL. The Energy Department is investing in better solar forecasting techniques to improve the reliability and stability of solar power plants during periods of cloud coverage. | Photo by Dennis Schroeder/NREL. Minh Le Minh Le Program Manager, Solar Program What Do These Projects Do? The Energy Department is investing $8 million in two cutting-edge projects to increase the accuracy of solar forecasting at sub-hourly,
Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications of Ensemble Statistical Procedures
Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications ofidentify with useful forecasting skill the very few inmatescontribute substantially to forecasting skill necessarily
Berk, Richard; Kriegler, Brian; Baek, Jong-Ho
Information and Inference in Econometrics: Estimation, Testing and Forecasting
Application: Forecasting Equity Premium . . . . . . . . . .2.6.1 Forecasting4 Forecasting Using Supervised Factor Models 4.1
Tu, Yundong
Richard A. Berk; Brian Kriegler; Jong-Ho Baek
Management Earnings Forecasts and Value of Analyst Forecast Revisions
Prior studies evaluate the relative importance of the sources of value that financial analysts bring to the market based on the price impact of forecast revisions over the event time. We find that management earnings forecasts influence the timing and precision of analyst forecasts. More importantly, evidence suggests that prior studies � finding of weaker (stronger) stock-price responses to forecast revisions in the period immediately after (before) the prior-quarter earnings announcement is likely to be the artifact of a temporal pattern of management earnings forecasts over the event time. To the extent that management earnings forecasts are public disclosures, our results suggest that the relative importance of analysts ' information discovery role documented in prior studies is likely to be overstated.
Yongtae Kim; Minsup Song
Energy Forecasting Framework and Emissions Consensus Tool (EFFECT) | Open
Energy Forecasting Framework and Emissions Consensus Tool (EFFECT) Energy Forecasting Framework and Emissions Consensus Tool (EFFECT) Jump to: navigation, search LEDSGP green logo.png FIND MORE DIA TOOLS This tool is part of the Development Impacts Assessment (DIA) Toolkit from the LEDS Global Partnership. Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Energy Forecasting Framework and Emissions Consensus Tool (EFFECT) Agency/Company /Organization: Energy Sector Management Assistance Program of the World Bank Sector: Energy Focus Area: Non-renewable Energy Topics: Baseline projection, Co-benefits assessment, GHG inventory Resource Type: Software/modeling tools User Interface: Spreadsheet Complexity/Ease of Use: Simple Website: www.esmap.org/esmap/EFFECT Cost: Free Equivalent URI: www.esmap.org/esmap/EFFECT Energy Forecasting Framework and Emissions Consensus Tool (EFFECT) Screenshot
Short-Term World Oil Price Forecast
4 4 Notes: This graph shows monthly average spot West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices. Spot WTI crude oil prices peaked last fall as anticipated boosts to world supply from OPEC and other sources did not show up in actual stocks data. So where do we see crude oil prices going from here? Crude oil prices are expected to be about $28-$30 per barrel for the rest of this year, but note the uncertainty bands on this projection. They give an indication of how difficult it is to know what these prices are going to do. Also, EIA does not forecast volatility. This relatively flat forecast could be correct on average, with wide swings around the base line. Let's explore why we think prices will likely remain high, by looking at an important market barometer - inventories - which measures the
Integration of Variable Generation Forecasting into System Operations: Current Practices and Future Requirements
This project update provides the first output of the EPRI Bulk Renewable Integration Program Project P173-010, �Integration of Variable Generation Forecasts into System Operations.� This project, begun in 2013, aims to improve existing methods utilities/independent system operators (ISOs) use to integrate forecasts into system operations and develop new methods. This year�s goal was to identify current practices and future requirements. This was done by interacting with a wide ...
Chapter 11 Forecasting breaks and forecasting during breaks
Success in accurately forecasting breaks requires that they are predictable from relevant information available at the forecast origin using an appropriate model form, which can be selected and estimated before the break. To clarify the roles of these six necessary conditions, we distinguish between the information set for �normal forces � and the one for �break drivers�, then outline sources of potential information. Relevant non-linear, dynamic models facing multiple breaks can have more candidate variables than observations, so we discuss automatic model selection. As a failure to accurately forecast breaks remains likely, we augment our strategy by modelling breaks during their progress, and consider robust forecasting devices.
Jennifer L. Castle; Nicholas W. P. Fawcett; David F. Hendry
Forecasting Uncertain Hotel Room Demand
Economic systems are characterized by increasing uncertainty in their dynamics. This increasing uncertainty is likely to incur bad decisions that can be costly in financial terms. This makes forecasting of uncertain economic variables an instrumental activity in any organization. This paper takes the hotel industry as a practical application of forecasting using the Holt-Winters method. The problem here is to forecast the uncertain demand for rooms at a hotel for each arrival day. Forecasting is part of hotel revenue management system whose objective is to maximize the revenue by making decisions regarding when to make rooms available for customers and at what price. The forecast approach discussed in this paper is based on quantitative models and does not incorporate management expertise. Even though, forecast results are found to be satisfactory for certain days, this is not the case for other arrival days. It is believed that human judgment is important when dealing with ...
Mihir Rajopadhye Mounir; Mounir Ben Ghaliay; Paul P. Wang; Timothy Baker; Craig V. Eister
Forecast Technical Document Growing Stock Volume
Forecast Technical Document Growing Stock Volume Forecasts A document describing how growing stock (`standing') volume is handled in the 2011 Production Forecast. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley Halsall #12;PF2011 Growing stock volume forecasts Background A forecast of standing volume (or
Aviation forecasting and systems analyses
The 9 papers in this report deal with the following areas: method of allocating airport runway slots; method for forecasting general aviation activity; air traffic control network-planning model based on second-order Markov chains; analyzing ticket-choice decisions of air travelers; assessing the safety and risk of air traffic control systems: risk estimation from rare events; forecasts of aviation fuel consumption in Virginia; estimating the market share of international air carriers; forecasts of passenger and air-cargo activity at Logan International Airport; and forecasting method for general aviation aircraft and their activity.
Geisinger, K.E.; Brander, J.R.G.; Wilson, F.R.; Kohn, H.M.; Polhemus, N.W.
Studies of inflation and forecasting.
??This dissertation contains five research papers in the area of applied econometrics. The two broad themes of the research are inflation and forecasting. The first� (more)
Bermingham, Colin
UWIG Forecasting Workshop -- Albany (Presentation)
This presentation describes the importance of good forecasting for variable generation, the different approaches used by industry, and the importance of validated high-quality data.
Lew, D.
The WxChallenge: Forecasting Competition, Educational Tool, and Agent of Cultural Change
The WxChallenge, a project developed at the University of Oklahoma, brings a state-of-the-art, fun, and exciting forecast contest to participants at colleges and universities across North America. The challenge is to forecast the maximum and minimum ...
Bradley G. Illston; Jeffrey B. Basara; Christopher Weiss; Mike Voss
Evaluating Density Forecasts: Forecast Combinations, Model Mixtures, Calibration and Sharpness
In a recent article Gneiting, Balabdaoui and Raftery (JRSSB, 2007) propose the criterion of sharpness for the evaluation of predictive distributions or density forecasts. They motivate their proposal by an example in which standard evaluation procedures based on probability integral transforms cannot distinguish between the ideal forecast and several competing forecasts. In this paper we show that their example has some unrealistic features from the perspective of the time-series forecasting literature, hence it is an insecure foundation for their argument that existing calibration procedures are inadequate in practice. We present an alternative, more realistic example in which relevant statistical methods, including information-based methods, provide the required discrimination between competing forecasts. We conclude that there is no need for a subsidiary criterion of sharpness.
James Mitchell; Kenneth F. Wallis
On the Prediction of Forecast Skill
Using 10-day forecast 500 mb height data from the last 7 yr, the potential to predict the skill of numerical weather forecasts is discussed. Four possible predictor sets are described. The first, giving the consistency between adjacent forecasts, ...
T. N. Palmer; S. Tibaldi
Equitable Skill Scores for Categorical Forecasts
Many skill scores used to evaluate categorical forecasts of discrete variables are inequitable, in the sense that constant forecasts of some events lead to better scores than constant forecasts of other events. Inequitable skill scores may ...
Lev S. Gandin; Allan H. Murphy
Whither the Weather Analysis and Forecasting Process?
An argument is made that if human forecasters are to continue to maintain a skill advantage over steadily improving model and guidance forecasts, then ways have to be found to prevent the deterioration of forecaster skills through disuse. The ...
Lance F. Bosart
Lagged Ensembles, Forecast Configuration, and Seasonal Predictions
An analysis of lagged ensemble seasonal forecasts from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) is presented. The focus of the analysis is on the construction of lagged ensemble forecasts ...
Mingyue Chen; Wanqiu Wang; Arun Kumar
Improving Forecast Communication: Linguistic and Cultural Considerations
One goal of weather and climate forecasting is to inform decision making. Effective communication of forecasts to various sectors of the public is essential for meeting that goal, yet studies repeatedly show that forecasts are not well understood ...
Karen Pennesi
An analysis of lagged ensemble seasonal forecasts from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), is presented. The focus of the analysis is on the construction of lagged ensemble forecasts ...
Evaluation of errors in national energy forecasts.
??Energy forecasts are widely used by the U.S. government, politicians, think tanks, and utility companies. While short-term forecasts were reasonably accurate, medium and long-range forecasts� (more)
Sakva, Denys
What Is the True Value of Forecasts?
Understanding the economic value of weather and climate forecasts is of tremendous practical importance. Traditional models that have attempted to gauge forecast value have focused on a best-case scenario, in which forecast users are assumed to ...
Antony Millner
Diagnosing Forecast Errors in Tropical Cyclone Motion
This paper reports on the development of a diagnostic approach that can be used to examine the sources of numerical model forecast error that contribute to degraded tropical cyclone (TC) motion forecasts. Tropical cyclone motion forecasts depend ...
Thomas J. Galarneau Jr.; Christopher A. Davis
Forecasting Electric Vehicle Costs with Experience Curves
April, 5. R 2~1. Dino. "Forecasting the Price Evolution of 1ElectromcProducts," Ioumal of Forecasting, �oL4, No I, 1985.costs and a set of forecasting tools that can be refined as
Lipman, Timonthy E.; Sperling, Daniel
Probabilistic Verification of Monthly Temperature Forecasts
Monthly forecasting bridges the gap between medium-range weather forecasting and seasonal predictions. While such forecasts in the prediction range of 1�4 weeks are vital to many applications in the context of weather and climate risk management, ...
Andreas P. Weigel; Daniel Baggenstos; Mark A. Liniger; Fr�d�ric Vitart; Christof Appenzeller
CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand.Oglesby Executive Director #12;i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The demand forecast is the combined product to the contributing authors listed previously, Mohsen Abrishami prepared the commercial sector forecast. Mehrzad
CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 FINAL FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand The demand forecast is the combined product of the hard work and expertise of numerous California Energy previously, Mohsen Abrishami prepared the commercial sector forecast. Mehrzad Soltani Nia helped prepare
A Forecast for the California Labor Market
issue for the state. A Forecast for the California Laborto Go? � The UCLA Anderson Forecast for the Nation andAngeles: UCLA Anderson Forecast: Nation 1.1 � 1.9. Dhawan,
Mitchell, Daniel J. B.
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION STAFF FORECAST OF 2007 PEAK DEMAND STAFFREPORT June 2006 CEC-400.................................................................................. 9 Sources of Forecast Error....................................................................... .................11 Tables Table 1: Revised versus September 2005 Peak Demand Forecast ......................... 2
Operational Forecaster Uncertainty Needs and Future Roles
Key results of a comprehensive survey of U.S. National Weather Service operational forecast managers concerning the assessment and communication of forecast uncertainty are presented and discussed. The survey results revealed that forecasters are ...
David R. Novak; David R. Bright; Michael J. Brennan
Calibration of Probabilistic Forecasts of Binary Events
Probabilistic forecasts of atmospheric variables are often given as relative frequencies obtained from ensembles of deterministic forecasts. The detrimental effects of imperfect models and initial conditions on the quality of such forecasts can ...
Cristina Primo; Christopher A. T. Ferro; Ian T. Jolliffe; David B. Stephenson
1 CORPORATE GOVERNANCE AND MANAGEMENT EARNINGS FORECAST QUALITY: EVIDENCE FROM FRENCH IPOS Anis attributes, ownership retained, auditor quality, and underwriter reputation and management earnings forecast quality measured by management earnings forecast accuracy and bias. Using 117 French IPOs, we find
Forecasting women's apparel sales using mathematical
Forecasting women's apparel sales using mathematical modeling Celia Frank and Ashish Garg, USA Les Sztandera Philadelphia University, Philadelphia, PA, USA Keywords Apparel, Forecasting average (MA), auto- regression (AR), or combinations of them are used for forecasting sales. Since
Raheja, Amar
Calibration of Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts
From 1 August 1990 to 31 July 1995, the Weather Service Forecast Office in Pittsburgh prepared 6159 probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts. Forecasts were made twice a day for 24-h periods beginning at 0000 and 1200 UTC for two river ...
Roman Krzysztofowicz; Ashley A. Sigrest
Evaluating Probabilistic Forecasts Using Information Theory
The problem of assessing the quality of an operational forecasting system that produces probabilistic forecasts is addressed using information theory. A measure of the quality of the forecasting scheme, based on the amount of a data compression ...
Mark S. Roulston; Leonard A. Smith
Virtual Floe Ice Drift Forecast Model Intercomparison
Both sea ice forecast models and methods to measure their skill are needed for operational sea ice forecasting. Two simple sea ice models are described and tested here. Four different measures of skill are also tested. The forecasts from the ...
Robert W. Grumbine
Ensemble Cloud Model Applications to Forecasting Thunderstorms
A cloud model ensemble forecasting approach is developed to create forecasts that describe the range and distribution of thunderstorm lifetimes that may be expected to occur on a particular day. Such forecasts are crucial for anticipating severe ...
Kimberly L. Elmore; David J. Stensrud; Kenneth C. Crawford
CASH PROJECTIONS CASH PROJECTIONS FY 2012-FY 2014 ($ IN THOUSANDS) KEY: = more than $70 million = less than $70 million more than $35 million = less than $35 million ACTUAL FORECAST ACTUAL ACTUAL ACTUAL ACTUAL ACTUAL ACTUAL ACTUAL ACTUAL ACTUAL ACTUAL ACTUAL FORECAST ACTUAL ACTUAL FORECAST FORECAST FY 2012 FY 2013 OCT 2012 NOV 2012 DEC 2012 JAN 2013 FEB 2013 MAR 2013 APR 2013 MAY 2013 JUN 2013 JUL 2013 AUG 2013 SEP 2013 SEP 2013 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 Note REVENUES Firm 141,638 $ 150,984 $ 9,356 $ 14,951 $ 15,015 $ 13,131 $ 12,470 $ 11,088 $ 11,817 $ 11,754 $ 12,954 $ 19,737 $ 13,914 $ 12,582 $ 10,652 $ 156,839 $ 152,591 $ 164,182 $ a WRP 32,170 $ 62,774 $ 755 $ 2,418
The evolution of consensus in macroeconomic forecasting
When professional forecasters repeatedly forecast macroeconomic variables, their forecasts may converge over time towards a consensus. The evolution of consensus is analyzed with Blue Chip data under a parametric polynomial decay function that permits flexibility in the decay path. For the most part, this specification fits the data. We test whether forecast differences decay to zero at the same point in time for a panel of forecasters, and discuss possible explanations for this, along with its implications for studies using panels of forecasters.
Allan W. Gregory; James Yetman; Jel Codes C E; Robert Eggert; Fred Joutz
Statistical Wind Power Forecasting Models: Results for U.S. Wind Farms; Preprint
Electricity markets in the United States are evolving. Accurate wind power forecasts are beneficial for wind plant operators, utility operators, and utility customers. An accurate forecast makes it possible for grid operators to schedule the economically efficient generation to meet the demand of electrical customers. In the evolving markets, some form of auction is held for various forward markets, such as hour ahead or day ahead. This paper develops several statistical forecasting models that can be useful in hour-ahead markets that have a similar tariff. Although longer-term forecasting relies on numerical weather models, the statistical models used here focus on the short-term forecasts that can be useful in the hour-ahead markets. We investigate the extent to which time-series analysis can improve on simplistic persistence forecasts. This project applied a class of models known as autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models to both wind speed and wind power output.
Milligan, M.; Schwartz, M.; Wan, Y.
Economic Evaluation of Short-Term Wind Power Forecasts in ERCOT: Preliminary Results; Preprint
Historically, a number of wind energy integration studies have investigated the value of using day-ahead wind power forecasts for grid operational decisions. These studies have shown that there could be large cost savings gained by grid operators implementing the forecasts in their system operations. To date, none of these studies have investigated the value of shorter-term (0 to 6-hour-ahead) wind power forecasts. In 2010, the Department of Energy and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration partnered to fund improvements in short-term wind forecasts and to determine the economic value of these improvements to grid operators, hereafter referred to as the Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP). In this work, we discuss the preliminary results of the economic benefit analysis portion of the WFIP for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas. The improvements seen in the wind forecasts are examined, then the economic results of a production cost model simulation are analyzed.
Orwig, K.; Hodge, B. M.; Brinkman, G.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.; Banunarayanan, V.; Nasir, S.; Freedman, J.
Second Quarter Second Quarter Overall Contract and Project Management Improvement Performance Metrics and Targets 1 Contract/Project Management Primary Performance Metrics FY 2011 Target FY 2011 Forecast FY 2011 Pre- & Post-CAP Forecast Comment 1a. Capital Asset Line Item Projects: (Pre-RCA/CAP) Projects completed within 110% of CD-2 TPC. 1b. Capital Asset Line Item Projects: (Post-RCA/CAP) 90% Line Item 84% Line Item 78% Pre-CAP 100% Post-CAP This is based on a 3-year rolling average (FY09 to FY11). TPC is Total Project Cost. 2a. EM Cleanup (Soil and Groundwater Remediation, D&D, and Waste Treatment and Disposal) Projects: (Pre- RAC/CAP) 90% of Projects completed within 110% of CD-2 TPC by FY12. 2b. EM Cleanup (Soil and Groundwater Remediation,
Third Quarter Third Quarter Overall Contract and Project Management Improvement Performance Metrics and Targets 1 Contract/Project Management Primary Performance Metrics FY 2011 Target FY 2011 Forecast FY 2011 Pre- & Post-CAP Forecast Comment 1a. Capital Asset Line Item Projects: (Pre-RCA/CAP) Projects completed within 110% of CD-2 TPC. 1b. Capital Asset Line Item Projects: (Post-RCA/CAP) 90% Line Item 84% Line Item 78% Pre-CAP 100% Post-CAP This is based on a 3-year rolling average (FY09 to FY11). TPC is Total Project Cost. 2a. EM Cleanup (Soil and Groundwater Remediation, D&D, and Waste Treatment and Disposal) Projects: (Pre- RAC/CAP) 90% of Projects completed within 110% of CD-2 TPC by FY12. 2b. EM Cleanup (Soil and Groundwater Remediation,
Background pollution forecast over bulgaria
Both, the current level of air pollution studies and social needs in the country, are in a stage mature enough for creating Bulgarian Chemical Weather Forecasting and Information System The system is foreseen to provide in real time forecast of the spatial/temporal ...
D. Syrakov; K. Ganev; M. Prodanova; N. Miloshev; G. Jordanov; E. Katragkou; D. Melas; A. Poupkou; K. Markakis
Frequency Dependence in Forecast Skill
A method is proposed to calculate measures of forecast skill for high, medium and low temporal frequency variations in the atmosphere. This method is applied to a series of 128 consecutive 1 to 10-day forecasts produced at NMC with their ...
H. M. van Den Dool; Suranjana Saha
Electricity Electricity Electricity consumption nearly doubles in the IEO2005 projection period. The emerging economies of Asia are expected to lead the increase in world electricity use. Figure 58. World Net Electricity Consumption, 2002-2025 (Billion Kilowatthours). Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Figure Data Figure 59. World Net Electricity Consumption by Region, 2002-2025 (Billion Kilowatthours). Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Figure Data The International Energy Outlook 2005 (IEO2005) reference case projects that world net electricity consumption will nearly double over the next two decades.10 Over the forecast period, world electricity demand is projected to grow at an average rate of 2.6 percent per year, from 14,275 billion
Annual Energy Outlook 1998 Forecasts - Preface
1998 With Projections to 2020 1998 With Projections to 2020 Annual Energy Outlook 1999 Report will be Available on December 9, 1998 Preface The Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98) presents midterm forecasts of energy supply, demand, and prices through 2020 prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The projections are based on results from EIA's National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The report begins with an Overview summarizing the AEO98 reference case. The next section, Legislation and Regulations, describes the assumptions made with regard to laws that affect energy markets and discusses evolving legislative and regulatory issues. Issues in Focus discusses three current energy issueselectricity restructuring, renewable portfolio standards, and carbon emissions. It is followed by the analysis
Electricity price forecasting in a grid environment.
??Accurate electricity price forecasting is critical to market participants in wholesale electricity markets. Market participants rely on price forecasts to decide their bidding strategies, allocate� (more)
Li, Guang, 1974-
Improving Forecasting: A plea for historical retrospectives
Improving Forecasting: A plea for historical retrospectives Title Improving Forecasting: A plea for historical retrospectives Publication Type Journal Article Year of Publication...
United States energy supply and demand forecasts 1979-1995
Forecasts of U.S. energy supply and demand by fuel type and economic sector, as well as historical background information, are presented. Discussion and results pertaining to the development of current and projected marginal energy costs, and their comparison with market prices, are also presented.
Walton, H.L.
MAP D-PHASE: Real-Time Demonstration of Weather Forecast Quality in the Alpine Region
Demonstration of probabilistic hydrological and atmospheric simulation of flood events in the Alpine region (D-PHASE) is made by the Forecast Demonstration Project in connection with the Mesoscale Alpine Programme (MAP). Its focus lies in the end-...
Mathias W. Rotach; Paolo Ambrosetti; Christof Appenzeller; Marco Arpagaus; Lionel Fontannaz; Felix Fundel; Urs Germann; Alessandro Hering; Mark A. Liniger; Marco Stoll; Andre Walser; Felix Ament; Hans-Stefan Bauer; Andreas Behrendt; Volker Wulfmeyer; Fran�ois Bouttier; Yann Seity; Andrea Buzzi; Silvio Davolio; Matteo Corazza; Michael Denhard; Manfred Dorninger; Theresa Gorgas; Jacqueline Frick; Christoph Hegg; Massimiliano Zappa; Christian Keil; Hans Volkert; Chiara Marsigli; Andrea Montaini; Ron McTaggart-Cowan; Ken Mylne; Roberto Ranzi; Evelyne Richard; Andrea Rossa; Daniel Santos-Mu�oz; Christoph Sch�r; Michael Staudinger; Yong Wang; Johannes Werhahn
Human Factors Psychology in the Support of Forecasting: The Design of Advanced Meteorological Workstations
Advanced Meteorological Processing (AMP) systems will provide a workstation environment to support the activities of operational forecasters and research meteorologists. AMP system research and development projects are underway at laboratories of ...
Robert R. Hoffman
Use of Medium-Range Numerical Weather Prediction Model Output to Produce Forecasts of Streamflow
This paper examines an archive containing over 40 years of 8-day atmospheric forecasts over the contiguous United States from the NCEP reanalysis project to assess the possibilities for using medium-range numerical weather prediction model output ...
Martyn P. Clark; Lauren E. Hay
Intercomparison of Spatial Forecast Verification Methods: Identifying Skillful Spatial Scales Using the Fractions Skill Score
The fractions skill score (FSS) was one of the measures that formed part of the Intercomparison of Spatial Forecast Verification Methods project. The FSS was used to assess a common dataset that consisted of real and perturbed Weather Research ...
Marion Mittermaier; Nigel Roberts
Large-magnitude geomagnetic disturbances in the North Sea region: Statistics, causes, and forecasting
Large-magnitude geomagnetic disturbances in the North Sea region: Statistics, causes require an undisturbed geomagnetic field. The Danish Meteorological Institute cur- rently offers real- ing project aiming at the development of geomagnetic forecast services, we have investigated
Gleisner, Hans
First Quarter First Quarter Overall Contract and Project Management Improvement Performance Metrics and Targets 1 Contract/Project Management Performance Metric FY 2012 Target FY 2012 Forecast FY 2012 Pre- & Post-CAP Forecast Comment Capital Asset Project Success: Complete 90% of capital asset projects at original scope and within 110% of CD-2 TPC. 90%* 84% Construction 83% Cleanup 85% 77% Pre-CAP 86% Post- CAP This is based on a 3- year rolling average (FY10 to FY12). TPC is Total Project Cost. Contract/Project Management Performance Metrics FY 2012 Target FY 2012 1st Qtr Actual Comment Certified EVM Systems: Post CD-3, (greater than $20 million). 95%* 94% EVM represents Earned Value Management. Certified FPD's at CD-1: Projects
Second Quarter Second Quarter Overall Contract and Project Management Improvement Performance Metrics and Targets 1 Contract/Project Management Performance Metric FY 2012 Target FY 2012 Forecast FY 2012 Pre- & Post-CAP Forecast Comment Capital Asset Project Success: Complete 90% of capital asset projects at original scope and within 110% of CD-2 TPC. 90%* 88% Construction 87% Cleanup 89% 77% Pre-CAP 92% Post- CAP This is based on a 3- year rolling average (FY10 to FY12). TPC is Total Project Cost. Contract/Project Management Performance Metrics FY 2012 Target FY 2012 2nd Qtr Actual Comment Certified EVM Systems: Post CD-3, (greater than $20 million). 95%* 96% EVM represents Earned Value Management. Certified FPD's at CD-1: Projects
Third Quarter Third Quarter Overall Contract and Project Management Improvement Performance Metrics and Targets 1 Contract/Project Management Performance Metric FY 2012 Target FY 2012 Forecast FY 2012 Pre- & Post-CAP Forecast Comment Capital Asset Project Success: Complete 90% of capital asset projects at original scope and within 110% of CD-2 TPC. 90%* 87% Construction 87% Cleanup 87% 77% Pre-CAP 90% Post- CAP This is based on a 3- year rolling average (FY10 to FY12). TPC is Total Project Cost. Contract/Project Management Performance Metrics FY 2012 Target FY 2012 3rd Qtr Actual Comment Certified EVM Systems: Post CD-3, (greater than $20 million). 95%* 98% EVM represents Earned Value Management. Certified FPD's at CD-1: Projects
Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix D: Wholesale Electricity Price Forecast
Forecast Introduction................................................................... 16 The Base Case Forecast..................................................................... 16 Base Case Price Forecast
Quantitative Precipitation Forecast Techniques for Use in Hydrologic Forecasting
Quantitative hydrologic forecasting usually requires knowledge of the spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation. First, it is important to accurately measure the precipitation falling over a particular watershed of interest. Second, ...
Konstantine P. Georgakakos; Michael D. Hudlow
Conceptual design of a geothermal site development forecasting system
A site development forecasting system has been designed in response to the need to monitor and forecast the development of specific geothermal resource sites for electrical power generation and direct heat applications. The system is comprised of customized software, a site development status data base, and a set of complex geothermal project development schedules. The system would use site-specific development status information obtained from the Geothermal Progress Monitor and other data derived from economic and market penetration studies to produce reports on the rates of geothermal energy development, federal agency manpower requirements to ensure these developments, and capital expenditures and technical/laborer manpower required to achieve these developments.
Neham, E.A.; Entingh, D.J.
Load Forecast For use in Resource Adequacy
Load Forecast 2019 For use in Resource Adequacy Massoud Jourabchi #12;In today's presentation d l Load forecast methodology Drivers of the forecast f i Treatment of conservation Incorporating impact of weather Forecast for 2019 #12;Regional Loads (MWA and MW)Regional Loads (MWA and MW
Forecast Technical Document Felling and Removals
Forecast Technical Document Felling and Removals Forecasts A document describing how volume fellings and removals are handled in the 2011 Production Forecast system. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley Halsall #12;PF2011 Felling and removals forecasts Background A fellings and removals
CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST Volume 1: Statewide Electricity forecast is the combined product of the hard work and expertise of numerous staff members in the Demand the commercial sector forecast. Mehrzad Soltani Nia helped prepare the industrial forecast. Miguel Garcia
Combining forecast weights: Why and how?
This paper proposes a procedure called forecast weight averaging which is a specific combination of forecast weights obtained from different methods of constructing forecast weights for the purpose of improving the accuracy of pseudo out of sample forecasting. It is found that under certain specified conditions
Yip Chee Yin; Ng Kok-Haur; Lim Hock-Eam
PROBLEMS OF FORECAST1 Dmitry KUCHARAVY
1 PROBLEMS OF FORECAST1 Dmitry KUCHARAVY email@example.com Roland DE GUIO roland for the purpose of Innovative Design. First, a brief analysis of problems for existing forecasting methods of the forecast errors. Second, using a contradiction analysis, a set of problems related to technology forecast
Using reforecasts for probabilistic forecast calibration
1 Using reforecasts for probabilistic forecast calibration Tom Hamill NOAA Earth System Research that is currently operational. #12;3 Why compute reforecasts? · For many forecast problems, such as long-lead forecasts or high-precipitation events, a few past forecasts may be insufficient for calibrating
Assessing Forecast Accuracy Measures Department of Economics
Assessing Forecast Accuracy Measures Zhuo Chen Department of Economics Heady Hall 260 Iowa State forecast accuracy measures. In the theoretical direction, for comparing two forecasters, only when the errors are stochastically ordered, the ranking of the forecasts is basically independent of the form
Current status of ForecastCurrent status of Forecast 2005 EPACT is in the model
1 1 Current status of ForecastCurrent status of Forecast 2005 EPACT is in the model 2007 Federal prices are being inputted into the model 2 Sales forecast Select yearsSales forecast Select years --Draft 0.53% Irrigation 2.76% Annual Growth Rates Preliminary Electricity ForecastAnnual Growth Rates
Can earnings forecasts be improved by taking into account the forecast bias?
Can earnings forecasts be improved by taking into account the forecast bias? François DOSSOU allow the calculation of earnings adjusted forecasts, for horizons from 1 to 24 months. We explain variables. From the forecast evaluation statistics viewpoints, the adjusted forecasts make it possible quasi
Comparison of Energy Information Administration and Bonneville Power Administration load forecasts
Comparisons of the modeling methodologies underlying the project Independence Evaluation System (PIES) and the Bonneville Power Administration forecasts are discussed in this paper. This Technical Memorandum is presented in order to reconcile apparent inconsistencies between the forecasts. These represent different purposes for the modeling effort as well as different forecasts. Nonetheless, both are appropriate within the context that they are intended. The BPA forecasts are site-specific, detailed, micro-level, yearly forecasts of the demand for electricity. PIES develops regional, macro forecasts and does not contain estimates of the timing of the completion of plants within the period of the forecast. The BPA forecast is intended to be utilized in analyzing a sub-regional capacity expansion program. PIES is a regional energy market-clearing, non-normative model which allows different scenarios to be compared by changing input variables. Clearly, both forecasts are dependent upon the accuracy of the assumptions and input variables included. However, the differing levels of aggregation and objectives require different types of input variables.
Reed, H.J.
Statistical Wind Power Forecasting for U.S. Wind Farms: Preprint
Electricity markets in the United States are evolving. Accurate wind power forecasts are beneficial for wind plant operators, utility operators, and utility customers. An accurate forecast allows grid operators to schedule economically efficient generation to meet the demand of electrical customers. The evolving markets hold some form of auction for various forward markets, such as hour ahead or day ahead. This paper describes several statistical forecasting models that can be useful in hour-ahead markets. Although longer-term forecasting relies on numerical weather models, the statistical models used here focus on the short-term forecasts that can be useful in the hour-ahead markets. The purpose of the paper is not to develop forecasting models that can compete with commercially available models. Instead, we investigate the extent to which time-series analysis can improve simplistic persistence forecasts. This project applied a class of models known as autoregressive moving average (A RMA) models to both wind speed and wind power output. The results from wind farms in Minnesota, Iowa, and along the Washington-Oregon border indicate that statistical modeling can provide a significant improvement in wind forecasts compared to persistence forecasts.
Milligan, M.; Schwartz, M. N.; Wan, Y.
Forecast Energy | Open Energy Information
Forecast Energy Forecast Energy Jump to: navigation, search Name Forecast Energy Address 2320 Marinship Way, Suite 300 Place Sausalito, California Zip 94965 Sector Services Product Intelligent Monitoring and Forecasting Services Year founded 2010 Number of employees 11-50 Company Type For profit Website http://www.forecastenergy.net Coordinates 37.865647°, -122.496315° Loading map... {"minzoom":false,"mappingservice":"googlemaps3","type":"ROADMAP","zoom":14,"types":["ROADMAP","SATELLITE","HYBRID","TERRAIN"],"geoservice":"google","maxzoom":false,"width":"600px","height":"350px","centre":false,"title":"","label":"","icon":"","visitedicon":"","lines":[],"polygons":[],"circles":[],"rectangles":[],"copycoords":false,"static":false,"wmsoverlay":"","layers":[],"controls":["pan","zoom","type","scale","streetview"],"zoomstyle":"DEFAULT","typestyle":"DEFAULT","autoinfowindows":false,"kml":[],"gkml":[],"fusiontables":[],"resizable":false,"tilt":0,"kmlrezoom":false,"poi":true,"imageoverlays":[],"markercluster":false,"searchmarkers":"","locations":[{"text":"","title":"","link":null,"lat":37.865647,"lon":-122.496315,"alt":0,"address":"","icon":"","group":"","inlineLabel":"","visitedicon":""}]}
Value of Wind Power Forecasting
This study, building on the extensive models developed for the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study (WWSIS), uses these WECC models to evaluate the operating cost impacts of improved day-ahead wind forecasts.
Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Jordan, G.; Piwko, R.
Fuzzy forecasting with DNA computing
There are many forecasting techniques including: exponential smoothing, ARIMA model, GARCH model, neural networks and genetic algorithm, etc. Since financial time series may be influenced by many factors, conventional model based techniques and hard ...
Don Jyh-Fu Jeng; Junzo Watada; Berlin Wu; Jui-Yu Wu
Sampling Errors in Seasonal Forecasting
The limited numbers of start dates and ensemble sizes in seasonal forecasts lead to sampling errors in predictions. Defining the magnitude of these sampling errors would be useful for end users as well as informing decisions on resource ...
Stephen Cusack; Alberto Arribas
Scoring Rules for Forecast Verification
The problem of probabilistic forecast verification is approached from a theoretical point of view starting from three basic desiderata: additivity, exclusive dependence on physical observations (�locality�), and strictly proper behavior. By ...
Riccardo Benedetti
Wavelets and Field Forecast Verification
Current field forecast verification measures are inadequate, primarily because they compress the comparison between two complex spatial field processes into one number. Discrete wavelet transforms (DWTs) applied to analysis and contemporaneous ...
William M. Briggs; Richard A. Levine
Richardson's Barotropic Forecast: A Reappraisal
To elucidate his numerical technique and to examine the effectiveness of geostrophic initial winds, Lewis Fry Richardson carried out an idealized forecast using the linear shallow-water equations and simple analytical pressure and velocity ...
Peter Lynch
Downscaling Extended Weather Forecasts for Hydrologic Prediction
Weather and climate forecasts are critical inputs to hydrologic forecasting systems. The National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) issues 8-15 days outlook daily for the U.S. based on the Medium Range Forecast (MRF) model, which is a global model applied at about 2? spatial resolution. Because of the relatively coarse spatial resolution, weather forecasts produced by the MRF model cannot be applied directly to hydrologic forecasting models that require high spatial resolution to represent land surface hydrology. A mesoscale atmospheric model was used to dynamically downscale the 1-8 day extended global weather forecasts to test the feasibility of hydrologic forecasting through this model nesting approach. Atmospheric conditions of each 8-day forecast during the period 1990-2000 were used to provide initial and boundary conditions for the mesoscale model to produce an 8-day atmospheric forecast for the western U.S. at 30 km spatial resolution. To examine the impact of initialization of the land surface state on forecast skill, two sets of simulations were performed with the land surface state initialized based on the global forecasts versus land surface conditions from a continuous mesoscale simulation driven by the NCEP reanalysis. Comparison of the skill of the global and downscaled precipitation forecasts in the western U.S. showed higher skill for the downscaled forecasts at all precipitation thresholds and increasingly larger differences at the larger thresholds. Analyses of the surface temperature forecasts show that the mesoscale forecasts generally reduced the root-mean-square error by about 1.5 C compared to the global forecasts, because of the much better resolved topography at 30 km spatial resolution. In addition, initialization of the land surface states has large impacts on the temperature forecasts, but not the precipitation forecasts. The improvements in forecast skill using downscaling could be potentially significant for improving hydrologic forecasts for managing river basins.
Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Qian, Yun
IEA and EIA: Similarities and Differences in Projections and ...
Thoughts on Energy Projections Used in Climate Change Analysis for Workshop on Methods to Address Uncertainty in Forecasting Future Values of Key Social, Economic ...
The Potential Impact of Using Persistence as a Reference Forecast on Perceived Forecast Skill
Skill is defined as actual forecast performance relative to the performance of a reference forecast. It is shown that the choice of reference (e.g., random or persistence) can affect the perceived performance of the forecast system. Two scores, ...
Marion P. Mittermaier
Evaluation of Wave Forecasts Consistent with Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Wind Forecasts
An algorithm to generate wave fields consistent with forecasts from the official U.S. tropical cyclone forecast centers has been made available in near�real time to forecasters since summer 2007. The algorithm removes the tropical cyclone from ...
Charles R. Sampson; Paul A. Wittmann; Efren A. Serra; Hendrik L. Tolman; Jessica Schauer; Timothy Marchok
Weather forecasting : the next generation : the potential use and implementation of ensemble forecasting
This thesis discusses ensemble forecasting, a promising new weather forecasting technique, from various viewpoints relating not only to its meteorological aspects but also to its user and policy aspects. Ensemble forecasting ...
Goto, Susumu
The Complex Relationship between Forecast Skill and Forecast Value: A Real-World Analysis
For routine forecasts of temperature and precipitation, the relative skill advantage of human forecasters with respect to the numerical�statistical guidance is small (and diminishing). Since the relationship between forecast skill and the value ...
Paul J. Roebber; Lance F. Bosart
Quantification of Uncertainity in Fire-Weather Forecasts: Some Results of Operational and Experimental Forecasting Programs
Fire-weather forecasts (FWFs) prepared by National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters on an operational basis are traditionally expressed in categorical terms. However, to make rational and optimal use of such forecasts, fire managers need ...
Barbara G. Brown; Allan H. Murphy
Ability to Forecast Regional Soil Moisture with a Distributed Hydrological Model Using ECMWF Rainfall Forecasts
This study mimics an online forecast system to provide nine day-ahead forecasts of regional soil moisture. It uses modified ensemble rainfall forecasts from the numerical weather prediction model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ...
J. M. Schuurmans; M. F. P. Bierkens
Spatial Structure, Forecast Errors, and Predictability of the South Asian Monsoon in CFS Monthly Retrospective Forecasts
The spatial structure of the boreal summer South Asian monsoon in the ensemble mean of monthly retrospective forecasts by the Climate Forecast System of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction is examined. The forecast errors and ...
Hae-Kyung Lee Drbohlav; V. Krishnamurthy
What Is a Good Forecast? An Essay on the Nature of Goodness in Weather Forecasting
Differences of opinion exist among forecasters�and between forecasters and users�regarding the meaning of the phrase �good (bad) weather forecasts.� These differences of opinion are fueled by a lack of clarity and/or understanding concerning the ...
Allan H. Murphy
Base Resource Forecasts - Power Marketing - Sierra Nevada Region...
Marketing > Base Resource Forecasts Base Resource Forecasts Note: Annual, rolling (monthly for 12 months), base resource forecasts are posted when they become available. Annual...
Overestimation Reduction in Forecasting Telecommuting as a TDM Policy
M. , Ethics and advocacy in forecasting for public policy.change and social forecasting: the case of telecommuting asOverestimation Reduction in Forecasting Telecommuting as a
Tal, Gil
Forecasting US CO2 Emissions Using State-Level Data
F. Hendry (eds), Economic Forecasting, Blackwell Publishing,W. : 2002, Macroeconomic forecasting using di?usion indexes,2003, Macroeconomic forecasting in the euro area: Country
Steinhauser, Ralf; Auffhammer, Maximilian
NoVaS Transformations: Flexible Inference for Volatility Forecasting
and Correlation Forecasting� in G. Elliott, C.W.J.Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Amsterdam: North-Holland,Transformations�, forthcoming in Forecasting in the Presence
Politis, Dimitris N; Thomakos, Dimitrios D
Earthquake Forecasting in Diverse Tectonic Zones of the Globe
Long-term probabilistic forecasting of earthquakes, J.2000), Probabilistic forecasting of earthquakes, Geophys. J.F.F. (2006), The EEPAS forecasting model and the probability
Kagan, Y. Y.; Jackson, D. D.
Ensemble-based methods for forecasting census in hospital units
P, Fitzgerald G: Regression forecasting of patient admissionapproach to modeling and forecasting demand in the emergencySJ, Haug PJ, Snow GL: Forecasting daily patient volumes in
Koestler, Devin C; Ombao, Hernando; Bender, Jesse
Forecasting Danerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications of Ensemble Statistical Procedures
costs could alter forecasting skill and the predictors thatForecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications ofOn-Line Working Paper Series Forecasting Dangerous Inmate
Berk, Richard A.; Kriegler, Brian; Baek, John-Ho
Developing a Practical Forecasting Screener for Domestic Violence Incidents
Developing a Practical Forecasting Screener for Domesticcomplicated did not improve forecasting skill. Taking thethe local costs of forecasting errors. It is also feasible
Richard A. Berk; Susan B. Sorenson; Yan He
Forecasting with Dynamic Microsimulation: Design, Implementation, and Demonstration
Goulias Page 84 Forecasting with Dynamic Microsimulation:Goulias Page 80 Forecasting with Dynamic Microsimulation:L. Demographic Forecasting with a Dynamic Stochastic
Ravulaparthy, Srinath; Goulias, Konstadinos G.
Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation-Table 1
Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (EIA)
Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation > Table 1 Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Table 1. Comparison of Absolute Percent Errors for AEO Forecast Evaluation, 1996 to...
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION FINAL DEMAND FORECAST FORMS AND INSTRUCTIONS FOR THE 2007 INTEGRATED Table of Contents General Instructions for Demand Forecast Submittals.............................................................................. 4 Protocols for Submitted Demand Forecasts
Forecasting Water Use in Texas Cities
In this research project, a methodology for automating the forecasting of municipal daily water use is developed and implemented in a microcomputer program called WATCAL. An automated forecast system is devised by modifying the previously-developed WATFORE model so that potential seasonal water use is calculated from a Fourier series fitted to seven-day weighted moving average values of daily maximum air temperature. A study is made comparing Kalman filtering and Box-Jenkins time series methods for automated model calibration. Although the Kalman filter method explains more of the time variation of the model parameters, the forecast accuracy of both methods is about the same. Box-Jenkins time series estimation algorithms specially designed for daily water use model parameter calibration, along with graphics and data editing routines, are implemented in WATCAL. A study is also made of the impact of conservation programs implemented in Austin and Corpus Christi, Texas during the dry summers of 1984 and 1985. Mandatory conservation programs reduced water use in Austin about 10% and in Corpus Christi about 30% of peak summer usage. The effects of an undesirable five-day cycle in Austin's water use (caused by a mandatory watering scheme where addresses ending in a specified pair of digits were allowed to water on a given day) were analyzed. An alternative address digit pairing devised as part Of this research eliminated the cycle during the summer Of 1986. A study of monthly and daily water use in five cities in Southern California shows that once water use data are made dimensionless, they follow a generic, weather-dependent pattern that is independent of city size and location within the region
Shaw, Douglas T.; Maidment, David R.
2:49 PM Average Hydro Forecast - Depletions capped in 2009 Customer allocations set to average generation forecast WY Net Gen Total Firm Project Use Total Load Purch @ Load AHP...
Accurate Short Term Load Forecasting for an ESKOM Major Distribution Region in South Africa: An Application of EPRI ANNSTLF
ANNSTLF (Artificial Neural Network Short-term Load Forecaster), developed by EPRI, is a Microsoft Windows-based neural-network load forecasting software that uses historical load and weather parameters to predict future load values. The software requires customization for each utility. This project involved customizing ANNSTLF for the Eastern Region of the South African energy company ESKOM.
Solar Energy Market Forecast | Open Energy Information
Solar Energy Market Forecast Solar Energy Market Forecast Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Solar Energy Market Forecast Agency/Company /Organization: United States Department of Energy Sector: Energy Focus Area: Solar Topics: Market analysis, Technology characterizations Resource Type: Publications Website: giffords.house.gov/DOE%20Perspective%20on%20Solar%20Market%20Evolution References: Solar Energy Market Forecast[1] Summary " Energy markets / forecasts DOE Solar America Initiative overview Capital market investments in solar Solar photovoltaic (PV) sector overview PV prices and costs PV market evolution Market evolution considerations Balance of system costs Silicon 'normalization' Solar system value drivers Solar market forecast Additional resources"
Assessment of the possibility of forecasting future natural gas curtailments
This study provides a preliminary assessment of the potential for determining probabilities of future natural-gas-supply interruptions by combining long-range weather forecasts and natural-gas supply/demand projections. An illustrative example which measures the probability of occurrence of heating-season natural-gas curtailments for industrial users in the southeastern US is analyzed. Based on the information on existing long-range weather forecasting techniques and natural gas supply/demand projections enumerated above, especially the high uncertainties involved in weather forecasting and the unavailability of adequate, reliable natural-gas projections that take account of seasonal weather variations and uncertainties in the nation's energy-economic system, it must be concluded that there is little possibility, at the present time, of combining the two to yield useful, believable probabilities of heating-season gas curtailments in a form useful for corporate and government decision makers and planners. Possible remedial actions are suggested that might render such data more useful for the desired purpose in the future. The task may simply require the adequate incorporation of uncertainty and seasonal weather trends into modeling systems and the courage to report projected data, so that realistic natural gas supply/demand scenarios and the probabilities of their occurrence will be available to decision makers during a time when such information is greatly needed.
Lemont, S.
Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015
Various factors influence the development of the voluntary 'green' power market--the market in which consumers purchase or produce power from non-polluting, renewable energy sources. These factors include climate policies, renewable portfolio standards (RPS), renewable energy prices, consumers' interest in purchasing green power, and utilities' interest in promoting existing programs and in offering new green options. This report presents estimates of voluntary market demand for green power through 2015 that were made using historical data and three scenarios: low-growth, high-growth, and negative-policy impacts. The resulting forecast projects the total voluntary demand for renewable energy in 2015 to range from 63 million MWh annually in the low case scenario to 157 million MWh annually in the high case scenario, representing an approximately 2.5-fold difference. The negative-policy impacts scenario reflects a market size of 24 million MWh. Several key uncertainties affect the results of this forecast, including uncertainties related to growth assumptions, the impacts that policy may have on the market, the price and competitiveness of renewable generation, and the level of interest that utilities have in offering and promoting green power products.
Bird, L.; Holt, E.; Sumner, J.; Kreycik, C.
A Review of Numerical Forecast Guidance for Hurricane Hugo
Numerical forecast guidance for Hurricane Hugo from the National Meteorological Center is examined, as well as forecasts from the European Center for Medium Range Forecasting and the United Kingdom Meteorological Office. No one forecast product ...
John H. Ward
Short-Range Ensemble Forecasts of Precipitation Type
Short-range ensemble forecasting is extended to a critical winter weather problem: forecasting precipitation type. Forecast soundings from the operational NCEP Short-Range Ensemble Forecast system are combined with five precipitation-type ...
Matthew S. Wandishin; Michael E. Baldwin; Steven L. Mullen; John V. Cortinas Jr.
Summary Verification Measures and Their Interpretation for Ensemble Forecasts
Ensemble prediction systems produce forecasts that represent the probability distribution of a continuous forecast variable. Most often, the verification problem is simplified by transforming the ensemble forecast into probability forecasts for ...
A. Allen Bradley; Stuart S. Schwartz
Using Customers' Reported Forecasts to Predict Future Sales
Using Customers' Reported Forecasts to Predict Future Sales Nihat Altintas , Alan Montgomery orders using forecasts provided by their customers. Our goal is to improve the supplier's operations through a better un- derstanding of the customers's forecast behavior. Unfortunately, customer forecasts
Murphy, Robert F.
The Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting System (ATCF)
The U.S. Navy Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting System (ATCF) is an IBM-AT compatible software package developed for the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), Guam. ATCF is designed to assist forecasters with the process of making tropical ...
Ronald J. Miller; Ann J. Schrader; Charles R. Sampson; Ted L. Tsui
Evaluation of LFM-2 Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts
The results of a near real time experiment designed to assess the state of the art of quantitative precipitation forecasting skill of the operational NMC LFM-2 are described. All available LFM-2 quantitative precipitation forecasts were verified ...
Forecaster Workstation Design: Concepts and Issues
Some basic ideas about designing a meteorological workstation for operational weather forecasting are presented, in part as a complement to the recently published discussion of workstation design by R. R. Hoffman. Scientific weather forecasting ...
Charles A. Doswell III
Performance of Recent Multimodel ENSO Forecasts
The performance of the International Research Institute for Climate and Society �ENSO forecast plume� during the 2002�11 period is evaluated using deterministic and probabilistic verification measures. The plume includes multiple model forecasts ...
Michael K. Tippett; Anthony G. Barnston; Shuhua Li
Local Forecast Communication In The Altiplano
Forecasts play an important role in planting decisions for Andean peasant producers. Predictions of the upcoming cropping season determine when, where, and what farmers will plant. This research looks at the sources of forecast information used ...
Jere L. Gilles; Corinne Valdivia
Bayesian Model Verification of NWP Ensemble Forecasts
Forecasts of convective precipitation have large uncertainties. To consider the forecast uncertainties of convection-permitting models, a convection-permitting ensemble prediction system (EPS) based on the Consortium for Small-scale Modeling (...
Andreas R�pnack; Andreas Hense; Christoph Gebhardt; Detlev Majewski
Economic and Statistical Measures of Forecast Accuracy
This paper argues in favour of a closer link between decision and forecast evaluation problems. Although the idea of using decision theory for forecast evaluation appears early in the dynamic stochastic programming literature, and has continued...
Granger, Clive W J; Pesaran, M Hashem
2013 Midyear Economic Forecast Sponsorship Opportunity
2013 Midyear Economic Forecast Sponsorship Opportunity Thursday, April 18, 2013, Hyatt Regency Irvine 11:30 a.m. 1:30 p.m. Dr. Anil Puri presents his annual Midyear Economic Forecast addressing
de Lijser, Peter
Forecasting consumer products using prediction markets
Prediction Markets hold the promise of improving the forecasting process. Research has shown that Prediction Markets can develop more accurate forecasts than polls or experts. Our research concentrated on analyzing Prediction ...
Trepte, Kai
Probabilistic Visibility Forecasting Using Bayesian Model Averaging
Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is a statistical postprocessing technique that has been used in probabilistic weather forecasting to calibrate forecast ensembles and generate predictive probability density functions (PDFs) for weather quantities. ...
Richard M. Chmielecki; Adrian E. Raftery
Intercomparison of Spatial Forecast Verification Methods
Advancements in weather forecast models and their enhanced resolution have led to substantially improved and more realistic-appearing forecasts for some variables. However, traditional verification scores often indicate poor performance because ...
Eric Gilleland; David Ahijevych; Barbara G. Brown; Barbara Casati; Elizabeth E. Ebert
Forecasting with Reference to a Specific Climatology
Seasonal forecasts are most commonly issued as anomalies with respect to some multiyear reference period. However, different seasonal forecasting centers use different reference periods. This paper shows that for near-surface temperature, ...
Emily Wallace; Alberto Arribas
Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts for River Basins
A methodology has been formulated to aid a field forecaster in preparing probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) for river basins. The format of probabilistic QPF is designed to meet three requirements: (i) it is compatible with ...
Roman Krzysztofowicz; William J. Drzal; Theresa Rossi Drake; James C. Weyman; Louis A. Giordano
A General Framework for Forecast Verification
A general framework for forecast verification based on the joint distribution of forecasts and observations is described. For further elaboration of the framework, two factorizations of the joint distribution are investigated: 1) the calibration-...
Allan H. Murphy; Robert L. Winkler
Antarctic Satellite Meteorology: Applications for Weather Forecasting
For over 30 years, weather forecasting for the Antarctic continent and adjacent Southern Ocean has relied on weather satellites. Significant advancements in forecasting skill have come via the weather satellite. The advent of the high-resolution ...
Matthew A. Lazzara; Linda M. Keller; Charles R. Stearns; Jonathan E. Thom; George A. Weidner
Value from Ambiguity in Ensemble Forecasts
This study explores the objective application of ambiguity information, that is, the uncertainty in forecast probability derived from an ensemble. One application approach, called uncertainty folding, merges ambiguity with forecast uncertainty ...
Mark S. Allen; F. Anthony Eckel
Short-term energy outlook. Quarterly projections
Energy Information Administration (EIA) quarterly forecasts of short-term energy supply, demand, and prices are revised in February, May, August, and November for publication in the Short-Term Energy Outlook, quarterly projections. Methodology volumes, which are published with the May and November issues, contain descriptions of the forecasting system and detailed analyses of the current issues that affect EIA's short-term energy forecasts. The forecasts are produced using the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS). Two principal driving variables are used in the STIFS model: the macroeconomic forecast and the world oil price assumptions. The macroeconomic forecasts, which are produced by Data Resources, Inc., (DRI), are adjusted by EIA in cases where EIA projections of the world price of crude oil differ from DRI estimates. EIA's Oil Market Simulation Model is used to project the world oil prices. The three projections for petroleum supply and demand are based on low, medium, and high economic growth scenarios which incorporate high, medium, and low crude oil price trajectories. In general, the following discussion of the forecast refers to the medium, or base case, scenario. Total petroleum consumption sensitivities, using varying assumptions about the level of price, weather, and economic activity are tabulated.
Energy Consumption by End-Use Sector Energy Consumption by End-Use Sector In the IEO2005 projections, end-use energy consumption in the residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation sectors varies widely among regions and from country to country. One way of looking at the future of world energy markets is to consider trends in energy consumption at the end-use sector level. With the exception of the transportation sector, which is almost universally dominated by petroleum products at present, the mix of energy use in the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors can vary widely from country to country, depending on a combination of regional factors, such as the availability of energy resources, the level of economic development, and political, social, and demographic factors. This chapter outlines the International Energy Outlook 2005 (IEO2005) forecast for regional energy consumption by end-use sector.
Natural Gas Natural Gas Natural gas is the fastest growing primary energy source in the IEO2005 forecast. Consumption of natural gas is projected to increase by nearly 70 percent between 2002 and 2025, with the most robust growth in demand expected among the emerging economies. Figure 34. World Natural Gas Consumption, 1980-2025 (Trillion Cubic Feet). Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center on 202-586-8800. Figure Data Figure 35. Natural Gas Consumption by Region, 1980-2025 (Trillion Cubic Feet). Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Figure Data Figure 36. Increase in Natural Gas Consumption by Region and Country, 2002-2025. Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Figure Data
Management of supply chain: an alternative modelling technique for forecasting
Forecasting is a necessity almost in any operation. However, the tools of forecasting are still primitive in view
Datta, Shoumen
Improving week two forecasts with multi-model re-forecast ensembles
Improving week two forecasts with multi-model re-forecast ensembles Jeffrey S. Whitaker and Xue Wei NOAA-CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center, Boulder, CO Fr´ed´eric Vitart Seasonal Forecasting Group, ECMWF dataset of ensemble 're-forecasts' from a single model can significantly improve the skill
Whitaker, Jeffrey S.
Forecasting for energy and chemical decision analysis
This paper focuses on uncertainty and bias in forecasts used for major energy and chemical investment decisions. Probability methods for characterizing uncertainty in the forecast are reviewed. Sources of forecasting bias are classified based on the results of relevant psychology research. Examples are drawn from the energy and chemical industry to illustrate the value of explicit characterization of uncertainty and reduction of bias in forecasts.
Cazalet, E.G.
A Rank Approach to Equity Forecast Construction
that are fit for their purpose; for example, returningaggregate county and sector forecasts that are consistent by construction....
Satchell, Stephen E; Wright, Stephen M
Forecasting Techniques Utilized by the Forecast Branch of the National Meteorological Center During a Major Convective Rainfall Event
Meteorologists within the Forecast Branch (FB) of the National Meteorological Center (NMC) produce operational quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs). These manual forecasts are prepared utilizing various forecasting techniques, which are ...
Theodore W. Funk
Application of Forecast Verification Science to Operational River Forecasting in the U.S. National Weather Service
Forecast verification in operational hydrology has been very limited to date, mainly due to the complexity of verifying both forcing input forecasts and hydrologic forecasts on multiple space�time scales. However, forecast verification needs to ...
Julie Demargne; Mary Mullusky; Kevin Werner; Thomas Adams; Scott Lindsey; Noreen Schwein; William Marosi; Edwin Welles
Load Forecasting for Modern Distribution Systems
Load forecasting is a fundamental activity for numerous organizations and activities within a utility, including planning, operations, and control. Transmission and Distribution (T&D) planning and design engineers use the load forecast to determine whether any changes and additions are needed to the electric system to satisfy the anticipated load. Other load forecast users include system operations, financial ...
Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast For
Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast For West Virginia: 2011 Update Prepared for the West December 2011 © Copyright 2011 WVU Research Corporation #12;#12;W.Va. Consensus Coal Forecast Update 2011 i Table of Contents Executive Summary 1 Recent Developments 3 Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast
Modeling and Forecasting Electric Daily Peak Loads
Forecast Update As part of the Mid Term Assessment, staff is preparing a long term wholesale electricity 29, 2012 Preliminary Results of the Electricity Price Forecast Update As part of the Mid Term Assessment, staff is preparing a long term wholesale electricity market price forecast. A summary of the work
Abdel-Aal, Radwan E.
CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 FINAL FORECAST Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand in this report. #12;i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The demand forecast is the combined product of the hard work to the contributing authors listed previously, Mohsen Abrishami prepared the commercial sector forecast. Mehrzad
CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 REVISED FORECAST Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand in this report. #12;i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The demand forecast is the combined product of the hard work listed previously, Mohsen Abrishami prepared the commercial sector forecast. Mehrzad Soltani Nia helped
REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022 Volume 2: Electricity Demand by Utility ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The staff demand forecast is the combined product of the hard work and expertise of numerous, Mohsen Abrishami prepared the commercial sector forecast. Mehrzad Soltani Nia helped prepare
REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022 Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand in this report. #12;i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The staff demand forecast is the combined product of the hard work listed previously, Mohsen Abrishami prepared the commercial sector forecast. Mehrzad Soltani Nia helped
Load forecast and treatment of conservation
Load forecast and treatment of conservation July 28th 2010 Resource Adequacy Technical Committee conservation is implicitly incorporated in the short-term demand forecast? #12;3 Incorporating conservation in the short-term model Our short-term model is an econometric model which can not explicitly forecast
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION FINAL STAFF FORECAST OF 2008 PEAK DEMAND STAFFREPORT June 2007 CEC-200 of the information in this paper. #12;Abstract This document describes staff's final forecast of 2008 peak demand demand forecasts for the respective territories of the state's three investor-owned utilities (IOUs
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION STAFF FORECAST: AVERAGE RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICES 2005 TO 2018 report, Staff Forecast: Retail Electricity Prices, 2005 to 2018, was prepared with contributions from the technical assistance provided by Greg Broeking of R.W. Beck, Inc. in preparing retail price forecasts
Blue Chip Consensus US GDP Forecast
and metro area from Moody�s Economy.com Equivalent to US-level Gross Domestic Product ? The GMP forecasts have a large impact on the peak load forecasts Rule of thumb: 1 % growth in RTO GMP ? approx. 1,000 MW growth in forecast RTO peak load
James F. Wilson
5, 183218, 2008 A rainfall forecast
HESSD 5, 183218, 2008 A rainfall forecast model using Artificial Neural Network N. Q. Hung et al An artificial neural network model for rainfall forecasting in Bangkok, Thailand N. Q. Hung, M. S. Babel, S Geosciences Union. 183 #12;HESSD 5, 183218, 2008 A rainfall forecast model using Artificial Neural Network N
System Demonstration Multilingual Weather Forecast Generation System
System Demonstration Multilingual Weather Forecast Generation System Tianfang Yao DongmoZhang Qian (Multilingual Weather Forecasts Assistant) system will be demonstrated. It is developed to generate the multilingual text of the weather forecasts automatically. The raw data from the weather observation can be used
(1) Ensemble forecast calibration & (2) using reforecasts
1 (1) Ensemble forecast calibration & (2) using reforecasts Tom Hamill NOAA Earth System Research · Calibration: ; the statistical adjustment of the (ensemble) forecast Rationale 1: Infer large-sample probabilities from small ensemble. Rationale 2: Remove bias, increase forecast reliability while preserving
Analysis Papers > Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Analysis Papers > Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Release Date: February 2005 Next Release Date: February 2006 Printer-friendly version Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation* Table 1.Comparison of Absolute Percent Errors for Present and Current AEO Forecast Evaluations Printer Friendly Version Average Absolute Percent Error Variable AEO82 to AEO99 AEO82 to AEO2000 AEO82 to AEO2001 AEO82 to AEO2002 AEO82 to AEO2003 AEO82 to AEO2004 Consumption Total Energy Consumption 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 Total Petroleum Consumption 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.9 Total Natural Gas Consumption 7.3 7.1 7.1 6.7 6.4 6.5 Total Coal Consumption 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 Total Electricity Sales 1.9 2.0 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 Production Crude Oil Production 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.7
Price forecasting for notebook computers
This paper proposes a four-step approach that uses statistical regression to forecast notebook computer prices. Notebook computer price is related to constituent features over a series of time periods, and the rates of change in the influence of individual features are estimated. A time series analysis is used to forecast and can be used, for example, to forecast (1) notebook computer price at introduction, and (2) rate of price erosion for a notebook's life cycle. Results indicate that this approach can forecast the price of a notebook computer up to four months in advance of its introduction with an average error of under 10% and the rate of price erosion to within 10% of the price for seven months after introduction-the length of the typical life cycle of a notebook. Since all data are publicly available, this approach can be used to assist managerial decision making in the notebook computer industry, for example, in determining when and how to upgrade a model and when to introduce a new model.
Rutherford, Derek Paul
Third Quarter Third Quarter Overall Contract and Project Management Performance Metrics and Targets 1 Contract/Project Management Primary Performance Metrics FY 2010 Target FY 2010 Forecast FY 2010 Pre- & Post-CAP Comment 1a. Capital Asset Line Item Projects: (Pre-RCA/CAP) 90% of projects completed within 110% of CD-2 TPC by FY11. 1b. Capital Asset Line Item Projects: (Post-RCA/CAP) 85% Line Item 71% Line Item 70% Pre-CAP 100% Post-CAP This is a projection based on a 3-year rolling average (FY08 to FY10). TPC is Total Project Cost. 2a. EM Cleanup (Soil and Groundwater Remediation, D&D, and Waste Treatment and Disposal) Projects: (Pre- RAC/CAP) 90% of projects completed within 110% of CD-2 TPC by FY11. 2b. EM Cleanup (Soil and Groundwater Remediation,
How Do You Like Your Weather?: Using Weather Forecast Data to Improve Short-Term Load Forecasts
This document provides a quick overview of weather forecasts as a data issue in the development of electricity demand forecasts. These are three sections in this Brief: o reasons behind the rise in interest in using weather forecasts in electricity forecasting models, o an overview of what some utilities are doing to evaluate weather forecasts, and o a resource list of weather forecast providers.
Short-term energy outlook: Quarterly projections
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) quarterly forecasts of short-term energy supply, demand, and prices are revised in January, April, July, and October for publication in the Short-Term Energy Outlook (Outlook). An annual supplement analyzes previous forecast errors, compares recent projections by other forecasters, and discusses current topics of the short-term energy markets (see Short- Term Energy Outlook: Annual Supplement, DOE/EIA-0202). The principal users of the Outlook are managers and energy analysts in private industry and government. The projections in this volume extend through the fourth quarter of 1990. The forecasts are produced using the Short-term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS). The STIFS model uses two principal driving variables: a macroeconomic forecast and world oil price assumptions. Macroeconomic forecasts produced by data Resources, Inc., (DRI), are adjusted by EIA to reflect EIA assumptions about the world price of crude oil, energy product prices, and other assumptions which may affect the macroeconomic forecast. EIA's Oil Market Simulation Model is used to project world oil prices. 20 refs., 17 figs., 16 tabs.
Essays on macroeconomics and forecasting
This dissertation consists of three essays. Chapter II uses the method of structural factor analysis to study the effects of monetary policy on key macroeconomic variables in a data rich environment. I propose two structural factor models. One is the structural factor augmented vector autoregressive (SFAVAR) model and the other is the structural factor vector autoregressive (SFVAR) model. Compared to the traditional vector autogression (VAR) model, both models incorporate far more information from hundreds of data series, series that can be and are monitored by the Central Bank. Moreover, the factors used are structurally meaningful, a feature that adds to the understanding of the ��?black box� of the monetary transmission mechanism. Both models generate qualitatively reasonable impulse response functions. Using the SFVAR model, both the ��?price puzzle� and the ��?liquidity puzzle� are eliminated. Chapter III employs the method of structural factor analysis to conduct a forecasting exercise in a data rich environment. I simulate out-of-sample real time forecasting using a structural dynamic factor forecasting model and its variations. I use several structural factors to summarize the information from a large set of candidate explanatory variables. Compared to Stock and Watson (2002)��?s models, the models proposed in this chapter can further allow me to select the factors structurally for each variable to be forecasted. I find advantages to using the structural dynamic factor forecasting models compared to alternatives that include univariate autoregression (AR) model, the VAR model and Stock and Watson��?s (2002) models, especially when forecasting real variables. In chapter IV, we measure U.S. technology shocks by implementing a dual approach, which is based on more reliable price data instead of aggregate quantity data. By doing so, we find the relative volatility of technology shocks and the correlation between output fluctuation and technology shocks to be much smaller than those revealed in most real-business-cycle (RBC) studies. Our results support the findings of Burnside, Eichenbaum and Rebelo (1996), who showed that the correlation between technology shocks and output is exaggerated in the RBC literature. This suggests that one should examine other sources of fluctuations for a better understanding of the business cycle phenomena.
Liu, Dandan
First Quarter First Quarter Overall Contract and Project Management Performance Metrics and Targets 1 Contract/Project Management Primary Performance Metrics FY 2011 Target FY 2011 Actual & Forecast FY 2011 Pre- & Post-CAP Comment 1a. Capital Asset Line Item Projects: (Pre-RCA/CAP) Projects completed within 110% of CD-2 TPC. 1b. Capital Asset Line Item Projects: (Post-RCA/CAP) 90% Line Item 79% Line Item 71% Pre-CAP 100% Post-CAP This is based on a 3-year rolling average (FY09 to FY11). TPC is Total Project Cost. 2a. EM Cleanup (Soil and Groundwater Remediation, D&D, and Waste Treatment and Disposal) Projects: (Pre- RAC/CAP) 90% of Projects completed within 110% of CD-2 TPC by FY12. 2b. EM Cleanup (Soil and Groundwater Remediation,
Critical Operating Constraint Forecasting (COCF)
This document represents the progress report and Task 1 letter report of the California Institute for Energy and Environment (CIEE) contract funded by the California Energy Commission (CEC), Critical Operating Constraint Forecasting (COCF) for California Independent System Operator (CAISO) Planning Phase. Task 1 was to accomplish the following items: Collect data from CAISO to set up the WECC power flow base case representing the CAISO system in the summer of 2006 Run TRACE for maximizing California Impo...
Forecasting Techniques The Use of Hourly Model-Generated Soundings to Forecast Mesoscale Phenomena. Part I: Initial Assessment in Forecasting Warm-Season Phenomena
Since late 1995, NCEP has made available to forecasters hourly model guidance at selected sites in the form of vertical profiles of various forecast fields. These profiles provide forecasters with increased temporal resolution and greater ...
Robert E. Hart; Gregory S. Forbes; Richard H. Grumm
A supply forecasting model for Zimbabwe's corn sector: a time series and structural analysis
The Zimbabwean government utilizes the corn supply forecasts to establish producer prices for the following growing season, estimate corn storage and handling costs, project corn import needs and associated costs, and to assess the Grain Marketing Board's financial resource needs. Thus, the corn supply forecasts are important information used by the government for contingency planning, decision-making, policy-formulation and implementation. As such, the need for accurate forecasts is obvious. The objectives of the study are: (a) determine how changes in the government-established producer price affects the quantity of corn supplied to the Grain Marketing Board by the large-scale corn-producing sector and (b) whether including rainfall or rainfall probabilities into econometric models would result in an improvement of corn supply forecasts compared to current forecasts by the government. In order to accomplish the first objective a supply elasticity model was specified and estimated using ordinary least squares. This model is intended to provide 'de insight to the government regarding the influence of the government-established corn price and other related variables on corn supplied to the Grain Marketing Board by the large-scale producers. Thus, the estimated model would be useful to the government when establishing corn prices in March/April for production in the following growing season (October - February). To achieve the second objective, preliminary analysis was carried out to verify whether there is statistical evidence to support the hypothesis that rainfall cause" corn production and supply, and also corn prices and sales. Specifically the preliminary analysis involved using the Granger causality tests, stationarity tests and innovation accounting (impulse responses and forecast error decomposition). Having verified and quantified the causal effects of rainfall on corn production and supply, the next task was to investigate whether including rainfall and/or drought probabilities into forecasting econometric models would help provide improved out-of-sample forecasts compared to the government's forecasts. The forecasting accuracy of the models (short-run) was evaluated using standard statistical measures such as, the mean square error (MSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPEI), improved mean absolute percentage error (IMAPE) and Theil's U-statistic, and thereupon select the best model. The results indicated that by incorporating rainfall and/or rainfall probabilities into econometric forecasting models, there was substantial improvement in corn supply forecasts. It follows that the the government would likely find it beneficial to incorporate the rainfall variable into their forecasting effort.
Makaudze, Ephias
DND: a model for forecasting electrical energy usage by water-resource subregion
A forecast methodology was derived from principles of econometrics using exogenous variables, i.e., cost of electricity, consumer income, and price elasticity as indicators of growth for each consuming sector: residential, commercial, and industrial. The model was calibrated using forecast data submitted to the Department of Energy (DOE) by the nine Regional Electric Reliability Councils. Estimates on electrical energy usage by specific water-resource subregion were obtained by normalizing forecasted total electrical energy usage by state into per capita usage. The usage factor and data on forecasted population were applied for each water resource subregion. The results derived using the model are self-consistent and in good agreement with DOE Energy Information Administration projections. The differences that exist are largely the result of assumptions regarding specific aggregations and assignment of regional-system reliability and load factors. 8 references, 2 figures, 13 tables.
Sonnichsen, J.C. Jr.
Engine Removal Projection Tool
The US Navy has over 3500 gas turbine engines used throughout the surface fleet for propulsion and the generation of electrical power. Past data is used to forecast the number of engine removals for the next ten years and determine engine down times between removals. Currently this is done via a FORTRAN program created in the early 1970s. This paper presents results of R&D associated with creating a new algorithm and software program. We tested over 60 techniques on data spanning 20 years from over 3100 engines and 120 ships. Investigated techniques for the forecast basis including moving averages, empirical negative binomial, generalized linear models, Cox regression, and Kaplan Meier survival curves, most of which are documented in engineering, medical and scientific research literature. We applied those techniques to the data, and chose the best algorithm based on its performance on real-world data. The software uses the best algorithm in combination with user-friendly interfaces and intuitively understandable displays. The user can select a specific engine type, forecast time period, and op-tempo. Graphical displays and numerical tables present forecasts and uncertainty intervals. The technology developed for the project is applicable to other logistic forecasting challenges.
Ferryman, Thomas A.; Matzke, Brett D.; Wilson, John E.; Sharp, Julia L.; Greitzer, Frank L.
Meese-Rogoff redux: Micro-based exchange-rate forecasting
Johnatban. "Exchange Rate Forecasting: The Errors We'veBased Exchange-Rate Forecasting By MARTIN D . D . EVANS ANDon longer-horizon forecasting, we examine forecasting over
Evans, MDD; Lyons, Richard K.
The Past as Prologue? Business Cycles and Forecasting since the 1960s
Forecasters,� Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 28, No. 2, Mar,of Macroeconomic Forecasting� Journal of Macroeconomics,of Federal Reserve Forecasting,� Journal of Macroeconomics,
Bardhan, Ashok Deo; Hicks, Daniel; Kroll, Cynthia A.; Yu, Tiffany
Material World: Forecasting Household Appliance Ownership in a Growing Global Economy
and V. Letschert (2005). Forecasting Electricity Demand in8364 Material World: Forecasting Household ApplianceMcNeil, 2008). Forecasting Diffusion Forecasting Variables
Letschert, Virginie
Model documentation: electricity market module. [15 year forecasts
This report documents the electricity market model. This model is a component of the Intermediate Future Forecasting System (IFFS), the energy market model used to provide projections of energy markets up to 15 years into the future. The electricity market model was developed by the Supply Analysis and Integration Branch as part of building the larger system. This report is written for an audience consisting of mathematical economists, statisticians, operations research analysts, and utility planners. This report contains an overview and a mathematical specification of the electricity market module. It includes a description of the model logic and the individual subroutines in the computer code. A companion document Intermediate Future Forecasting System: Executive Summary (DOE/EIA-430) provides an overview of the components in IFFS and their linkages. 22 figures, 2 tables.
Sanders, R.C.; Murphy, F.H.
Mathematical and computer modelling reports: Modeling and forecasting energy markets with the intermediate future forecasting system
This paper describes the Intermediate Future Forecasting System (IFFS), which is the model used to forecast integrated energy markets by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The model contains representations of supply and demand for all of the ...
Frederic H. Murphy; John J. Conti; Susan H. Shaw; Reginald Sanders
BMA Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting over the Huaihe Basin Using TIGGE Multi-model Ensemble Forecasts
Bayesian model averaging (BMA) probability quantitative precipitation forecast (PQPF) models were established by calibrating their parameters using one- to seven-day ensemble forecasts of 24-hour accumulated precipitation, and observations from 43 ...
Jianguo Liu; Zhenghui Xie
Using National Air Quality Forecast Guidance to Develop Local Air Quality Index Forecasts
The National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC) currently provides next-day forecasts of ozone concentrations over the contiguous United States. It was developed collaboratively by NOAA and Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in order to ...
Brian Eder; Daiwen Kang; S. Trivikrama Rao; Rohit Mathur; Shaocai Yu; Tanya Otte; Ken Schere; Richard Wayland; Scott Jackson; Paula Davidson; Jeff McQueen; George Bridgers
Role of Retrospective Forecasts of GCMs Forced with Persisted SST Anomalies in Operational Streamflow Forecasts Development
Seasonal streamflow forecasts contingent on climate information are essential for water resources planning and management as well as for setting up contingency measures during extreme years. In this study, operational streamflow forecasts are ...
A. Sankarasubramanian; Upmanu Lall; Susan Espinueva
Evaluation of MJO Forecast Skill from Several Statistical and Dynamical Forecast Models
This work examines the performance of Madden�Julian oscillation (MJO) forecasts from NCEP�s coupled and uncoupled general circulation models (GCMs) and statistical models. The forecast skill from these methods is evaluated in near�real time. ...
Kyong-Hwan Seo; Wanqiu Wang; Jon Gottschalck; Qin Zhang; Jae-Kyung E. Schemm; Wayne R. Higgins; Arun Kumar
A Probabilistic Forecast Contest and the Difficulty in Assessing Short-Range Forecast Uncertainty
Results are presented from a probability-based weather forecast contest. Rather than evaluating the absolute errors of nonprobabilistic temperature and precipitation forecasts, as is common in other contests, this contest evaluated the skill of ...
Thomas M. Hamill; Daniel S. Wilks
Calibrated Precipitation Forecasts for a Limited-Area Ensemble Forecast System Using Reforecasts
The calibration of numerical weather forecasts using reforecasts has been shown to increase the skill of weather predictions. Here, the precipitation forecasts from the Consortium for Small Scale Modeling Limited Area Ensemble Prediction System (...
Felix Fundel; Andre Walser; Mark A. Liniger; Christoph Frei; Christof Appenzeller
Implications of Ensemble Quantitative Precipitation Forecast Errors on Distributed Streamflow Forecasting
Evaluating the propagation of errors associated with ensemble quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) into the ensemble streamflow response is important to reduce uncertainty in operational flow forecasting. In this paper, a multifractal ...
Giuseppe Mascaro; Enrique R. Vivoni; Roberto Deidda
Evaluation of Probabilistic Precipitation Forecasts Determined from Eta and AVN Forecasted Amounts
This note examines the connection between the probability of precipitation and forecasted amounts from the NCEP Eta (now known as the North American Mesoscale model) and Aviation (AVN; now known as the Global Forecast System) models run over a 2-...
William A. Gallus Jr.; Michael E. Baldwin; Kimberly L. Elmore
Reliable Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts from a Short-Range Ensemble Forecasting System
A simple binning technique is developed to produce reliable 3-h probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts (PQPFs) from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) multimodel short-range ensemble forecasting system obtained ...
David J. Stensrud; Nusrat Yussouf
The Impact of Writing Area Forecast Discussions on Student Forecaster Performance
A brief study is provided on the forecast performance of students who write a mock area forecast discussion (AFD) on a weekly basis. Student performance was tracked for one semester (11 weeks) during the University of Missouri�Columbia's local ...
Patrick S. Market
An Operational Model for Forecasting Probability of Precipitation and Yes/No Forecast
An operational system for forecasting probability of precipitation (PoP) and yes/no forecast over 10 stations during monsoon season is developed. A perfect prog method (PPM) approach is followed for statistical interpretation of numerical weather ...
Ashok Kumar; Parvinder Maini; S. V. Singh
Evaluation of Probabilistic Medium-Range Temperature Forecasts from the North American Ensemble Forecast System
Ensemble temperature forecasts from the North American Ensemble Forecast System were assessed for quality against observations for 10 cities in western North America, for a 7-month period beginning in February 2007. Medium-range probabilistic ...
Doug McCollor; Roland Stull
Further Evaluation of the National Meterological Center's Medium-Range Forecast Model Precpitation Forecasts
Precipitation forecasts made by the National Meteorological Center's medium-range forecast (MRF) model are evaluated for the period, 1 March 1987 to 31 March 1989. As shown by Roads and Maisel, the MRF model wet bias was substantially alleviated ...
John O. Roads; T. Norman Maisal; Jordan Alpert
R/ECON July 2000 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE
R/ECON July 2000 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE FORECAST OF JULY 2000 NEW JERSEY of growth will decelerate over the forecast period. The R/ECON TM forecast for New Jersey in 2000 looks to decelerate over the course of the forecast. These forces will combine to push the unemployment rate to more
Increasing NOAA's computational capacity to improve global forecast modeling
1 Increasing NOAA's computational capacity to improve global forecast modeling A NOAA of the NWS's forecast products, even its regional forecast products, are constrained by the limitations of NOAA's global forecast model. Unfortunately, our global forecasts are less accurate than those from
Forecasting Random Walks Under Drift Instability
Forecasting Random Walks Under Drift Instability? M. Hashem Pesaran University of Cambridge, CIMF, and USC Andreas Pick University of Cambridge, CIMF March 11, 2008 Abstract This paper considers forecast averaging when the same model is used... but estimation is carried out over different estimation windows. It develops theoretical results for random walks when their drift and/or volatility are subject to one or more structural breaks. It is shown that compared to using forecasts based on a single...
Pesaran, M Hashem; Pick, Andreas
Solar future: 1978. [Market forecast to 1992
The growth in sales of solar heating equipment is discussed. Some forecasts are made for the continued market growth of collectors, pool systems, and photovoltaics. (MOW)
Butt, S.H.
Energy conservation and official UK energy forecasts
Behind the latest United Kingdom (UK) official forecasts of energy demand are implicit assumptions about future energy-price elasticities. Mr. Pearce examines the basis of the forecasts and finds that the long-term energy-price elasticities that they imply are two or three times too low. The official forecasts substantially understate the responsiveness of demand to energy price rises. If more-realistic price elasticities were assumed, the official forecasts would imply a zero primary energy-demand growth to 2000. This raises the interesting possibility of a low energy future being brought about entirely by market forces. 15 references, 3 tables.
Pearce, D.
Time Series Prediction Forecasting the Future and ...
Time Series Prediction Forecasting the Future and Understanding the Past Santa Fe Institute Proceedings on the Studies in the Sciences of ...
Promotional forecasting in the grocery retail business
Predicting customer demand in the highly competitive grocery retail business has become extremely difficult, especially for promotional items. The difficulty in promotional forecasting has resulted from numerous internal ...
Koottatep, Pakawkul
Oil Markets Oil Markets IEO2005 projects that world crude oil prices in real 2003 dollars will decline from their current level by 2010, then rise gradually through 2025. In the International Energy Outlook 2005 (IEO2005) reference case, world demand for crude oil grows from 78 million barrels per day in 2002 to 103 million barrels per day in 2015 and to just over 119 million barrels per day in 2025. Much of the growth in oil consumption is projected for the emerging Asian nations, where strong economic growth results in a robust increase in oil demand. Emerging Asia (including China and India) accounts for 45 percent of the total world increase in oil use over the forecast period in the IEO2005 reference case. The projected increase in world oil demand would require an increment to world production capability of more than 42 million barrels per day relative to the 2002 crude oil production capacity of 80.0 million barrels per day. Producers in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) are expected to be the major source of production increases. In addition, non-OPEC supply is expected to remain highly competitive, with major increments to supply coming from offshore resources, especially in the Caspian Basin, Latin America, and deepwater West Africa. The estimates of incremental production are based on current proved reserves and a country-by-country assessment of ultimately recoverable petroleum. In the IEO2005 oil price cases, the substantial investment capital required to produce the incremental volumes is assumed to exist, and the investors are expected to receive at least a 10-percent return on investment.
Forecasting Prices andForecasting Prices and Congestion forCongestion for
Abstract--In deregulated electricity markets, short-term load forecasting is important for reliable power322 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS, VOL. 25, NO. 1, FEBRUARY 2010 Short-Term Load Forecasting presents a similar day-based wavelet neural network method to forecast tomorrow's load. The idea
Tesfatsion, Leigh
Wind Power Forecasting andWind Power Forecasting and Electricity Market Operations
Power Forecasting in Five U.S. Electricity Markets MISO NYISO PJM ERCOT CAISO Peak load 109,157 MW (7 ........................................................................................... 18 4 WIND POWER FORECASTING AND ELECTRICITY MARKET OPERATIONS............................................................ 18 4-1 Market Operation and Wind Power Forecasting in Five U.S. Electricity Markets .......... 21 #12
Analysis of PG&E`s residential end-use metered data to improve electricity demand forecasts -- final report
This report summarizes findings from a unique project to improve the end-use electricity load shape and peak demand forecasts made by the Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E) and the California Energy Commission (CEC). First, the direct incorporation of end-use metered data into electricity demand forecasting models is a new approach that has only been made possible by recent end-use metering projects. Second, and perhaps more importantly, the joint-sponsorship of this analysis has led to the development of consistent sets of forecasting model inputs. That is, the ability to use a common data base and similar data treatment conventions for some of the forecasting inputs frees forecasters to concentrate on those differences (between their competing forecasts) that stem from real differences of opinion, rather than differences that can be readily resolved with better data. The focus of the analysis is residential space cooling, which represents a large and growing demand in the PG&E service territory. Using five years of end-use metered, central air conditioner data collected by PG&E from over 300 residences, we developed consistent sets of new inputs for both PG&E`s and CEC`s end-use load shape forecasting models. We compared the performance of the new inputs both to the inputs previously used by PG&E and CEC, and to a second set of new inputs developed to take advantage of a recently added modeling option to the forecasting model. The testing criteria included ability to forecast total daily energy use, daily peak demand, and demand at 4 P.M. (the most frequent hour of PG&E`s system peak demand). We also tested the new inputs with the weather data used by PG&E and CEC in preparing their forecasts.
Eto, J.H.; Moezzi, M.M.
Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Table 1. Forecast Evaluations:
Average Absolute Percent Errors from AEO Forecast Evaluations: Average Absolute Percent Errors from AEO Forecast Evaluations: 1996 to 2000 Average Absolute Percent Error Average Absolute Percent Error Average Absolute Percent Error Average Absolute Percent Error Average Absolute Percent Error Variable 1996 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO93 1997 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO97 1998 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO98 1999 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO99 2000 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO2000 Consumption Total Energy Consumption 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 Total Petroleum Consumption 3.2 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.9 Total Natural Gas Consumption 6.0 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.6 Total Coal Consumption 2.9 2.7 3.0 3.2 3.3 Total Electricity Sales 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.8 2.0 Production Crude Oil Production 5.1 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.5
Inter-Industry Diffusion of Technology That Results From ATP ...
... cast in terms of private versus social returns. ... 491, 4931 68B Gas production and ... Manufacturing High-Temperature Coils for Electric Motor Efficiency ...
Forecasting during the Lake-ICE/SNOWBANDS Field Experiments
Despite improvements in numerical weather prediction models, statistical models, forecast decision trees, and forecasting rules of thumb, human interpretation of meteorological information for a particular forecast situation can still yield a ...
Peter J. Sousounis; Greg E. Mann; George S. Young; Richard B. Wagenmaker; Bradley D. Hoggatt; William J. Badini
Experiments in Temperature and Precipitation Forecasting for Illinois
Six years of daily temperature and precipitation forecasting are studied for Urbana, Illinois. Minimum temperature forecast skills, measured against a climatological control, are 57%, 48%, 34% and 20% for the respective forecast ranges of one, ...
John R. Gyakum
the entire forecast period, primarily because both weather-adjusted peak and electricity consumption were forecast. Keywords Electricity demand, electricity consumption, demand forecast, weather normalization, annual peak demand, natural gas demand, self-generation, conservation, California Solar Initiative. #12
The Economic Value Of Ensemble-Based Weather Forecasts
The potential economic benefit associated with the use of an ensemble of forecasts versus anequivalent or higher-resolution control forecast is discussed. Neither forecast systems are post-processed,except a simple calibration that is applied to ...
Yuejian Zhu; Zoltan Toth; Richard Wobus; David Richardson; Kenneth Mylne
A Probabilistic Forecast Approach for Daily Precipitation Totals
Commonly, postprocessing techniques are employed to calibrate a model forecast. Here, a probabilistic postprocessor is presented that provides calibrated probability and quantile forecasts of precipitation on the local scale. The forecasts are ...
Petra Friederichs; Andreas Hense
Precipitation and Temperature Forecast Performance at the Weather Prediction Center
The role of the human forecaster in improving upon the accuracy of numerical weather prediction is explored using multi-year verification of human-generated short-range precipitation forecasts and medium-range maximum temperature forecasts from ...
David R. Novak; Christopher Bailey; Keith Brill; Patrick Burke; Wallace Hogsett; Robert Rausch; Michael Schichtel
Uses and Applications of Climate Forecasts for Power Utilities
The uses and potential applications of climate forecasts for electric and gas utilities were assessed 1) to discern needs for improving climate forecasts and guiding future research, and 2) to assist utilities in making wise use of forecasts. In-...
Stanley A. Changnon; Joyce M. Changnon; David Changnon
Diversity in Interpretations of Probability: Implications for Weather Forecasting
Over the last years, probability weather forecasts have become increasingly popular due in part to the development of ensemble forecast systems. Despite its widespread use in atmospheric sciences, probability forecasting remains a subtle and ...
Ram�n de El�a; Ren� Laprise
An Alternative Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecast Verification Technique
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) does not verify official or model forecasts if those forecasts call for a tropical cyclone to dissipate or if the real tropical cyclone dissipates. A new technique in which these forecasts are included in a ...
Sim D. Aberson
On the Reliability and Calibration of Ensemble Forecasts
An important aspect of ensemble forecasting is that the resulting probabilities are reliable (i.e., the forecast probabilities match the observed frequencies). In the medium-range forecasting context, the literature tends to focus on the ...
Christine Johnson; Neill Bowler
Scoring Probabilistic Forecasts: The Importance of Being Proper
Questions remain regarding how the skill of operational probabilistic forecasts is most usefully evaluated or compared, even though probability forecasts have been a long-standing aim in meteorological forecasting. This paper explains the ...
Jochen Br�cker; Leonard A. Smith
Prediction of Consensus Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Error
The extent to which the tropical cyclone (TC) track forecast error of a consensus model (CONU) routinely used by the forecasters at the National Hurricane Center can be predicted is determined. A number of predictors of consensus forecast error, ...
James S. Goerss
An Experiment in Mesoscale Weather Forecasting in the Michigan Area
During an experiment in mesoscale weather forecasting in the Michigan area, consensus improved over NWS guidance in maximum/minimum temperature and probability of precipitation forecasts out to 24 hours. Forecasts were generally best in the ...
Dennis G. Baker
Sheet3 Sheet2 Sheet1 Figure 106. Average annual minemouth coal prices by region, 1990-2040 (2011 dollars per million Btu) Appalachia Interior West US Average
Price and Load Forecasting in Volatile Energy Markets
With daily news stories about wildly fluctuating electricity prices and soaring natural gas prices, forecasters' responsibilities are expanding, visibility is increasing, and pressure exists to produce more frequent forecasts and more kinds of forecasts. The proceedings of EPRI's 13th Forecasting Symposium, held November 13-15 in Nashville, Tennessee, address current forecasting issues and developments, as well as explain the role that forecasters have played in recent events in energy markets.
A methodology for forecasting carbon dioxide flooding performance
A methodology was developed for forecasting carbon dioxide (CO2) flooding performance quickly and reliably. The feasibility of carbon dioxide flooding in the Dollarhide Clearfork "AB" Unit was evaluated using the methodology. This technique is very helpful when time and data resources are limited. The methodology consists of five tasks: 1) select a section of the reservoir with the most detailed geologic, reservoir, and production data, 2) perform material balance analysis for the selected section to determine 001? and the history of total expansion, voidage, and injectage, 3) establish an average 5-spot pattern within the selected section, 4) develop a black oil numerical simulation model for a quarter of the 5-spot pattern and simulate the primary and waterflood recovery processes, and 5) forecast carbon dioxide performance using Shell's Scoping model, Texaco's "PROPHET" model, and VIP miscible simulator. One of the major limitations of the methodology is that details of individual well performance and reservoir pressure and fluid saturation distributions in the project area are not available. Therefore, the forecast is limited to the average pattern and to the reservoir as a whole. Results of the Dollarhide Clearfork simulation study show that 9.7 % to 14.1 % of OOIP may be recovered by C02 flood in the selected section. It would require WAG injection cycles with a total fluid injection of 0.831 HCPV.
Marroquin Cabrera, Juan Carlos
Blasting Vibration Forecast Base on Neural Network
The influence of blasting vibration to surroundings around the blasting area can not be ignored, in order to guarantee the safety of surroundings around blasting area, blasting vibration forecasting model based on neural network is established by improved ... Keywords: Blasting vibration, Neural network, Forecast
Haiwang Ye; Fang Liu; Jian Chang; Lin Feng; Yang Wang; Peng Yao; Kai Wu
Evaluating the Skill of Categorical Forecasts
A generalized skill score is presented for evaluating forecasts in any number of categories. Each forecast in a sample is given a mark; the skill score for the sample is just the average mark. Each mark has an expected value of zero for an ...
Neil D. Gordon
Forecasting demand of commodities after natural disasters
Demand forecasting after natural disasters is especially important in emergency management. However, since the time series of commodities demand after natural disasters usually has a great deal of nonlinearity and irregularity, it has poor prediction ... Keywords: ARIMA, Demand forecasting, EMD, Emergency management, Natural disaster
Xiaoyan Xu; Yuqing Qi; Zhongsheng Hua
Time series forecasting with Qubit Neural Networks
This paper proposes a quantum learning scheme approach for time series forecasting, through the application of the new non-standard Qubit Neural Network (QNN) model. The QNN description was adapted in this work in order to resemble classical Artificial ... Keywords: artificial intelligence, artificial neural networks, quantum computing, qubit neural networks, time series forecasting
Carlos R. B. Azevedo; Tiago A. E. Ferreira
Making Forecasts and Weather Normalization Work Together
Electric utility industry restructuring has changed the consistency between weather-normalized sales and energy forecasts. This Technology Review discusses the feasibility of integrating weather normalization and forecasting processes, and addresses whether the conflicting goal of obtaining greater consistency and accuracy with fewer staff resources can be met with more integrated approaches.
A spatially distributed flash flood forecasting model
This paper presents a distributed model that is in operational use for forecasting flash floods in northern Austria. The main challenge in developing the model was parameter identification which was addressed by a modelling strategy that involved a model ... Keywords: Distributed modelling, Dominant processes concept, Floods, Forecasting, Kalman Filter, Model accuracy, Parameter identification, Stream routing
G�nter Bl�schl; Christian Reszler; J�rgen Komma
The NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2
The second version of the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) was made operational at NCEP in March 2011. This version has upgrades to nearly all aspects of the data assimilation and forecast model components of the system. A coupled Reanalysis ...
Suranjana Saha; Shrinivas Moorthi; Xingren Wu; Jiande Wang; Sudhir Nadiga; Patrick Tripp; David Behringer; Yu-Tai Hou; Hui-ya Chuang; Mark Iredell; Michael Ek; Jesse Meng; Rongqian Yang; Malaqu�as Pe�a Mendez; Huug van den Dool; Qin Zhang; Wanqiu Wang; Mingyue Chen; Emily Becker
Forecast of geothermal-drilling activity
The number of geothermal wells that will be drilled to support electric power production in the United States through 2000 A.D. are forecasted. Results of the forecast are presented by 5-year periods for the five most significant geothermal resources.
Mansure, A.J.; Brown, G.L.
Preemptive Forecasts Using an Ensemble Kalman Filter
An ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) estimates the error statistics of a model forecast using an ensemble of model forecasts. One use of an EnKF is data assimilation, resulting in the creation of an increment to the first-guess field at the ...
Brian J. Etherton
Incentives for Retailer Forecasting: Rebates vs. Returns
This paper studies a manufacturer that sells to a newsvendor retailer who can improve the quality of her demand information by exerting costly forecasting effort. In such a setting, contracts play two roles: providing incentives to influence the retailer's ... Keywords: endogenous adverse selection, forecasting, rebates, returns, supply chain contracting
Terry A. Taylor; Wenqiang Xiao
Efficient forecasting for hierarchical time series
Forecasting is used as the basis for business planning in many application areas such as energy, sales and traffic management. Time series data used in these areas is often hierarchically organized and thus, aggregated along the hierarchy levels based ... Keywords: forecasting, hierarchies, optimization, time series
Lars Dannecker; Robert Lorenz; Philipp R�sch; Wolfgang Lehner; Gregor Hackenbroich
Possibility of Skill Forecast Based on the Finite-Time Dominant Linear Solutions for a Primitive Equation Regional Forecast Model
The possibility of using forecast errors originating from the finite-time dominant linear modes for the prediction of forecast skill for a primitive equation regional forecast model is studied. This is similar to the method for skill prediction ...
Tomislava Vuki?evi?
Regional load-curve models: scenario and forecast using the DRI model. Final report. [Forecasts of electric power loads in 32 US regions
Regional load curve models were constructed for 32 regions that have been created by aggregating hourly load data from 146 electric utilities. These utilities supply approximately 95% of the electricity consumed in the continental US. The 32 models forecast electricity demands by hour, 8784 regional load forecasts per year. Because projections are made for each hour in the year, contemporaneous forecasts are available for peak demands, megawatt hour demands, load factors, load duration curves, and typical load shapes. The forecast scenario is described and documented in this volume and the forecast resulting from the use of this scenario is presented. The highlights of this forecast are two observations: (1) peak demands will once again become winter phenomena. By the year 2000, 18 of the 32 regions peak in a winter month as compared with the 8 winter peaking regions in 1977. In the heating season, the model is responsive to the number of heating degree-hours, the penetration rate of electric heating equipment, and the rate at which this space conditioning equipment is utilized, which itself is functionally dependent on the level of real electricity prices and real incomes. Thus, as the penetration rate of electric heating equipment increases, winter season demands grow more rapidly than demands in other seasons and peaks begin to appear in winter months; and (2) load factors begin to increase in the forecast, reversing the trend which began in the early 1960s. Nationally, load factors do not leap upwards, instead they increase gradually from .609 in 1977 to .629 in the year 2000. The improvement is more consequential in some regions, with load factors increasing, at times, by .10 or more. In some regions, load factors continue to decline.
Platt, H.D.
SunShot Initiative: Forecasting and Influencing Technological...
Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress in Solar Energy to someone by E-mail Share SunShot Initiative: Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress in Solar Energy...
New Climate Research Centers Forecast Changes and Challenges...
Climate Research Centers Forecast Changes and Challenges New Climate Research Centers Forecast Changes and Challenges October 25, 2013 - 12:24pm Addthis This artist's rendering...
Exploiting Domain Knowledge to Forecast Heating Oil Consumption
The GasDay laboratory at Marquette University provides forecasts of energy consumption. One such service is the Heating Oil Forecaster
George F. Corliss; Tsuginosuke Sakauchi; Steven R. Vitullo; Ronald H. Brown
Building Energy Software Tools Directory: Energy Usage Forecasts
Alphabetically Tools by Platform PC Mac UNIX Internet Tools by Country Related Links Energy Usage Forecasts Energy Usage Forecasts Quick and easy web-based tool that provides...
Forecasts of intercity passenger demand and energy use through 2000
The development of national travel demand and energy-use forecasts for automobile and common-carrier intercity travel through the year 2000. The forecasts are driven by the POINTS (Passenger Oriented Intercity Network Travel Simulation) model, a model direct-demand model which accounts for competition among modes and destinations. Developed and used to model SMSA-to-SMSA business and nonbusiness travel, POINTS is an improvement over earlier direct demand models because it includes an explicit representation of cities' relative accessibilities and a utility maximizing behavorial multimodal travel function. Within POINTS, pathbuilding algorithms are used to determine city-pair travel times and costs by mode, including intramodal transfer times. Other input data include projections of SMSA population, public and private sector employment, and hotel and other retail receipts. Outputs include forecasts of SMSA-to-SMSA person trips and person-miles of travel by mode. For the national forecasts, these are expanded to represent all intercity travel (trips greater than 100 miles, one way) for two fuel-price cases. Under both cases rising fuel prices, accompanied by substantial reductions in model-energy intensities, result in moderate growth in total intercity passenger travel. Total intercity passenger travel is predicted to grow at approximately one percent per year, slightly fster than population growth, while air travel grows almost twice as fast as population. The net effect of moderate travel growth and substantial reduction in model energy intensities is a reduction of approximately 50 percent in fuel consumption by the intercity passenger travel market.
Kaplan, M.P.; Vyas, A.D.; Millar, M.; Gur, Y.
A. G. A. six-month gas demand forecast July-December, 1984
Estimates of the total gas demand for 1984 (including pipeline fuel) range from 18,226 to 19,557 trillion (TBtu). The second half of the year shows a slower recovery rate as economic recovery moderates. The forecast show both actual and projected demand by month, and compares it with 1983 demand and by market sector. 6 tables.
A Short-Range Forecasting Experiment Conducted during the Canadian Atlantic Storms Program
During the Canadian Atlantic Storms Program (CASP), a dedicated forecast center conducted experiments in mesoscale forecasting. Several forecast products, including a marine forecast and a site-specific public forecast, were written every 3 h. ...
K. A. Macdonald; M. Danks; J. D. Abraham
Short-term energy outlook quarterly projections. First quarter 1994
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly, short- term energy supply, demand, and price projections for publication in February, May, August, and November in the Short-Term Energy Outlook (Outlook). An annual supplement analyzes the performance of previous forecasts, compares recent cases with those of other forecasting services, and discusses current topics related to the short-term energy markets.
Project information
Project Information Amistad Project (Texas) Collbran Project (Colorado) Colorado River Storage Project Dolores Project (Colorado) Falcon Project (Texas) Provo River Project (Utah)...
Decision support for financial forecasting
A primary mission of the Budget Management Division of the Air Force is fiscal analysis. This involves formulating, justifying, and tracking financial data during budget preparation and execution. An essential requirement of this process is the ready availability and easy manipulation of past and current budget data. This necessitates the decentralization of the data. A prototypical system, BAFS (Budget Analysis and Forecasting System), that provides such a capability is presented. In its current state, the system is designed to be a decision support tool. A brief report of the budget decisions and activities is presented. The system structure and its major components are discussed. An insight into the implementation strategies and the tool used is provided. The paper concludes with a discussion of future enhancements and the system's evolution into an expert system. 4 refs., 3 figs.
Jairam, B.N.; Morris, J.D.; Emrich, M.L.; Hardee, H.K.
Earthquake Forecast via Neutrino Tomography
We discuss the possibility of forecasting earthquakes by means of (anti)neutrino tomography. Antineutrinos emitted from reactors are used as a probe. As the antineutrinos traverse through a region prone to earthquakes, observable variations in the matter effect on the antineutrino oscillation would provide a tomography of the vicinity of the region. In this preliminary work, we adopt a simplified model for the geometrical profile and matter density in a fault zone. We calculate the survival probability of electron antineutrinos for cases without and with an anomalous accumulation of electrons which can be considered as a clear signal of the coming earthquake, at the geological region with a fault zone, and find that the variation may reach as much as 3% for $\\bar \
Bin Wang; Ya-Zheng Chen; Xue-Qian Li
MSSM Forecast for the LHC
We perform a forecast of the MSSM with universal soft terms (CMSSM) for the LHC, based on an improved Bayesian analysis. We do not incorporate ad hoc measures of the fine-tuning to penalize unnatural possibilities: such penalization arises from the Bayesian analysis itself when the experimental value of $M_Z$ is considered. This allows to scan the whole parameter space, allowing arbitrarily large soft terms. Still the low-energy region is statistically favoured (even before including dark matter or g-2 constraints). Contrary to other studies, the results are almost unaffected by changing the upper limits taken for the soft terms. The results are also remarkable stable when using flat or logarithmic priors, a fact that arises from the larger statistical weight of the low-energy region in both cases. Then we incorporate all the important experimental constrains to the analysis, obtaining a map of the probability density of the MSSM parameter space, i.e. the forecast of the MSSM. Since not all the experimental information is equally robust, we perform separate analyses depending on the group of observables used. When only the most robust ones are used, the favoured region of the parameter space contains a significant portion outside the LHC reach. This effect gets reinforced if the Higgs mass is not close to its present experimental limit and persits when dark matter constraints are included. Only when the g-2 constraint (based on $e^+e^-$ data) is considered, the preferred region (for $\\mu>0$) is well inside the LHC scope. We also perform a Bayesian comparison of the positive- and negative-$\\mu$ possibilities.
Maria Eugenia Cabrera; Alberto Casas; Roberto Ruiz de Austri
Forecasting future volatility from option prices, Working
Weisbach are gratefully acknowledged. I bear full responsibility for all remaining errors. Forecasting Future Volatility from Option Prices Evidence exists that option prices produce biased forecasts of future volatility across a wide variety of options markets. This paper presents two main results. First, approximately half of the forecasting bias in the S&P 500 index (SPX) options market is eliminated by constructing measures of realized volatility from five minute observations on SPX futures rather than from daily closing SPX levels. Second, much of the remaining forecasting bias is eliminated by employing an option pricing model that permits a non-zero market price of volatility risk. It is widely believed that option prices provide the best forecasts of the future volatility of the assets which underlie them. One reason for this belief is that option prices have the ability to impound all publicly available information � including all information contained in the history of past prices � about the future volatility of the underlying assets. A second related reason is that option pricing theory maintains that if an option prices fails to embody optimal forecasts of the future volatility of the underlying asset, a profitable trading strategy should be available whose implementation would push the option price to the level that reflects the best possible forecast of future volatility.
Allen M. Poteshman
Microsoft Office Project - OpForecast 2013-11-20
Cycle Cycle Start Finish Duration 100 449 EOC Sat 8/24/13 Tue 10/8/13 44.77 days 101 450A Tue 10/8/13 Tue 10/8/13 0.29 days 102 450A EOC Tue 10/8/13 Wed 10/9/13 0.51 days 103 450B Tue 10/8/13 Sun 11/3/13 26.22 days 104 450B EOC Sun 11/3/13 Tue 1/14/14 72 days 105 451 Tue 1/14/14 Fri 2/7/14 24 days 106 451 EOC Fri 2/7/14 Tue 2/25/14 18 days 107 452 Tue 2/25/14 Fri 3/21/14 24 days 108 452 EOC Fri 3/21/14 Tue 5/6/14 46 days 109 453 Tue 5/6/14 Fri 5/30/14 24 days 110 453 EOC Fri 5/30/14 Tue 6/17/14 18 days 111 454 Tue 6/17/14 Fri 7/11/14 24 days 112 454 EOC Fri 7/11/14 Tue 7/29/14 18 days 113 455 Tue 7/29/14 Fri 8/22/14 24 days 114 455 EOC Fri 8/22/14 Tue 10/7/14 46 days 115 456 Tue 10/7/14 Fri 10/31/14 24 days 116 456 EOC Fri 10/31/14 Tue 11/18/14 18 days 117 457 Tue 11/18/14 Fri 12/12/14 24 days 118 457 EOC Fri 12/12/14 Tue 1/6/15 25 days 119 458 Tue 1/6/15
1993 Solid Waste Reference Forecast Summary
This report, which updates WHC-EP-0567, 1992 Solid Waste Reference Forecast Summary, (WHC 1992) forecasts the volumes of solid wastes to be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site during the 30-year period from FY 1993 through FY 2022. The data used in this document were collected from Westinghouse Hanford Company forecasts as well as from surveys of waste generators at other US Department of Energy sites who are now shipping or plan to ship solid wastes to the Hanford Site for disposal. These wastes include low-level and low-level mixed waste, transuranic and transuranic mixed waste, and nonradioactive hazardous waste.
Valero, O.J.; Blackburn, C.L. [Westinghouse Hanford Co., Richland, WA (United States); Kaae, P.S.; Armacost, L.L.; Garrett, S.M.K. [Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (United States)
Forecast Bias Correction: A Second Order Method
The difference between a model forecast and actual observations is called forecast bias. This bias is due to either incomplete model assumptions and/or poorly known parameter values and initial/boundary conditions. In this paper we discuss a method for estimating corrections to parameters and initial conditions that would account for the forecast bias. A set of simple experiments with the logistic ordinary differential equation is performed using an iterative version of a first order version of our method to compare with the second order version of the method.
Crowell, Sean
Industrial production index forecast: Methods comparison
The purpose of this work is to investigate the suitability of different methods as short term forecast tools. It is studied and compared the application of the Kalman filter method with other forecasting methods when applied to a set of qualitative and quantitative information. The work data set is made of qualitative surveys of conjunture and the industrial production index (IPI). The objective is the attainment of short term forecast models for the Portuguese IPI of the transforming industry. After the previous treatment of the data
M. Filomena Teodoro
On December 14, 2009, the reference-case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2010 were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables can play in itigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings.
Bolinger, Mark A.; Wiser, Ryan H.
Consensus forecast of U. S. electricity supply and demand to the year 2000
Recent forecasts of total electricity generating capacity and energy demand as well as for electricity produced from nuclear energy and hydroelectric power are presented in tables and graphs to the year 2000. A forecast of the distribution of type of fuel and energy source that will supply the future electricity demand is presented. Use of electricity by each major consuming sector is presented for 1975. Projected demands for electricity in the years 1985 and 2000, as allocated to consuming sectors, are derived and presented.
Lane, J.A.
Short-term streamflow forecasting: ARIMA vs neural networks
Streamflow forecasting is very important for water resources management and flood defence. In this paper two forecasting methods are compared: ARIMA versus a multilayer perceptron neural network. This comparison is done by forecasting a streamflow of ... Keywords: artificial neural networks, auto regressive integrated moving average, forecasting, streamflow
Juan Frausto-Solis; Esmeralda Pita; Javier Lagunas
Optimal Updating of Forecasts for the Timing of Future Events
A major problem in forecasting is estimating the time of some future event. traditionally, forecasts are designed to minimize an error cost function that is evaluated once, possibly when the event occurs and forecast accuracy can be determined. However, ... Keywords: Air Transportation, Dynamic Programming Applications, Forecasting
Juhwen Hwang; Medini R. Singh; W. J. Hurley; Robert A. Shumsky
Customization and Marketing of Monsoon Forecasts A CSIRCMMACS Synergy
Customization and Marketing of Monsoon Forecasts A CSIRCMMACS Synergy Criteria for Technical forecasts of monsoon can significantly aid many sectors like agriculture, power and production industries to the operational forecast, to develop and deliver customized monsoon forecasts based on user need is required
Swathi, P S
Update On The Wholesale Electricity Price Forecast & Modeling Results
Forecast Base Case includes § Medium Demand Forecast § Medium Natural Gas Price Forecast § Federal CO2 Rathdrum Power LLC-ID 4) CO2 Emissions - 2009 Selected Natural Gas Plants Plant level, emission percentage § Significantly lower electricity prices than 6th Plan Forecast, due to lower demand, lower gas prices, deferred
or over predicting electricity demand due to poor weather forecasts is several hundred million dollars outages that many in the area experienced. Deep Thunder can also improve generation-side load forecasting by providing high-resolution weather forecast data for use in electricity demand forecast models. Integrating
Manry, Michael
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF REVISED FORECAST forecast is the combined product of the hard work and expertise of numerous staff members in the Demand prepared the residential sector forecast. Mohsen Abrishami prepared the commercial sector forecast. Lynn
R/ECON December 1999 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE
R/ECON December 1999 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE FORECAST OF DECEMBER 1999 NEW and wage growth slow later in the forecast, income growth will average 5% a year between 2000 and 2004. Over the forecast period, population growth will average 0.5% a year. The population will rise from 8
R/ECON July 2001 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE
R/ECON July 2001 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE FORECAST OF JULY 2001 NEW JERSEY each year. The R/ECONTM forecast for New Jersey looks for growth in real output of 2.6 percent years. Over the forecast period, both the construction and manufacturing sectors will lose jobs
R/ECON April 2001 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE
R/ECON April 2001 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE FORECAST OF APRIL 2001 NEW JERSEY and 2005, and by an average of 43,000 thereafter (from 2005 to 2020). The R/ECONTM forecast for New Jersey.6 percent a year over the rest of the forecast period. Personal income will rise 5.6 percent this year, down
R/ECON October 1999 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE
R/ECON October 1999 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE FORECAST OF OCTOBER 1999 NEW JERSEY the rate of inflation should remain under 3% a year. (See Table 1.) #12;Throughout the forecast period and wage growth slow later in the forecast period, income growth will average 4.8% a year between 2000
Does increasing model stratospheric resolution improve extended range forecast skill?
Does increasing model stratospheric resolution improve extended range forecast skill? Greg Roff,1 forecast skill at high Southern latitudes is explored. Ensemble forecasts are made for two model configurations that differ only in vertical resolution above 100 hPa. An ensemble of twelve 30day forecasts
PRELIMINARY CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 2012-2022 AUGUST 2011 CEC-200-2011-011-SD CALIFORNIA or adequacy of the information in this report. #12;i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The staff demand forecast forecast. Bryan Alcorn and Mehrzad Soltani Nia prepared the industrial forecast. Miguel Garcia- Cerrutti
R/ECON December 1998 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE
R/ECON December 1998 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE FORECAST OF DECEMBER 1998 NEW 1997 will continue-- though at a reduced rate--through the forecast period that ends in 2001. New inflation of about 1.5%. In 1998, R/ECONTM forecasts that employment will rise by 76,000 jobs, or 2
R/ECON October 2000 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE
R/ECON October 2000 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE FORECAST OF OCTOBER 2000 NEW JERSEY and 2002, with 84,800 jobs being added over the two-year period. The R/ECON TM forecast for New Jersey the rest of the forecast period as foreign immigration declines and the population ages. In the next 10
R/ECON April 1999 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE
R/ECON April 1999 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE FORECAST OF APRIL 1999 NEW JERSEY forecast for New Jersey is for a continuation of the current expansion but at a somewhat slower pace in employment through the forecast period will be in services and trade. We also expect considerable growth
R/ECON July 1999 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE
R/ECON July 1999 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE FORECAST OF JULY 1999 NEW JERSEY forecast for New Jersey is for a continuing but slowing expansion. (See Table 1.) In 1998, employment rose increased by 0.7% in 1998. It will slow a bit over the forecast period as foreign immigration declines. #12
R/ECON April 2000 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE
R/ECON April 2000 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE FORECAST OF APRIL 2000 NEW JERSEY to more inflation and higher interest rates. The R/ECON TM forecast for New Jersey looks for employment.6% a year over the forecast period. The services and trade sectors will provide 90% of the net increase
Atmospheric Lagrangian coherent structures considering unresolved turbulence and forecast uncertainty
Atmospheric Lagrangian coherent structures considering unresolved turbulence and forecast, the uncertainty of the forecast FTLE fields is analyzed using ensemble forecasting. Unavoidable errors of the forecast velocity data due to the chaotic dynamics of the atmosphere is the salient reason for errors
Ross, Shane
A New Measure of Earnings Forecast Uncertainty Xuguang Sheng
A New Measure of Earnings Forecast Uncertainty Xuguang Sheng American University Washington, D of earnings forecast uncertainty as the sum of dispersion among analysts and the variance of mean forecast available to analysts at the time they make their forecasts. Hence, it alleviates some of the limitations
Kim, Kiho
AN ANALYSIS OF FORECAST BASED REORDER POINT POLICIES : THE BENEFIT OF USING FORECASTS Mohamed Zied Ch^atenay-Malabry Cedex, France Abstract: In this paper, we analyze forecast based inventory control policies for a non-stationary demand. We assume that forecasts and the associated uncertainties are given
Time dependent Directional Profit Model for Financial Time Series Forecasting
Time dependent Directional Profit Model for Financial Time Series Forecasting Jingtao YAO Chew email@example.com Abstract Goodnessoffit is the most popular criterion for neural network time series forecasting. In the context of financial time series forecasting, we are not only concerned at how good the forecasts fit
Yao, JingTao
A Study on Training Criteria for Financial Time Series Forecasting
A Study on Training Criteria for Financial Time Series Forecasting JingTao YAO Dept of Information on goodness-of-fit which is also the most popular criterion forecasting. How ever, in the context of financial time series forecasting, we are not only concerned at how good the forecasts fit their target. In order
A new class of hybrid models for time series forecasting
Applying quantitative models for forecasting and assisting investment decision making has become more indispensable in business practices than ever before. Improving forecasting especially time series forecasting accuracy is an important yet often difficult ... Keywords: Artificial neural networks (ANNs), Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Hybrid models, Probabilistic neural networks (PNNs), Time series forecasting
Mehdi Khashei; Mehdi Bijari
Distribution of Wind Power Forecasting Errors from Operational Systems (Presentation)
This presentation offers new data and statistical analysis of wind power forecasting errors in operational systems.
Hodge, B. M.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.
Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting (Presentation)
This presentation proposes a suite of metrics for evaluating the performance of solar power forecasting.
Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H.; Banunarayanan, V.
Forecast of California car and truck fuel demand
The purpose of this work is to forecast likely future car and truck fuel demand in California in light of recent and possible additional improvements in vehicle efficiency. Forecasts of gasoline and diesel fuel demand are made based on projections of primary economic, demographic, and transportation technology variables. Projections of car and light truck stock and new sales are based on regression equations developed from historical data. Feasible future vehicle fuel economies are determined from technical improvements possible with existing technology. Several different cases of market-induced efficiency improvement are presented. Anticipated fuel economy improvements induced by federal mileage standards and rising fuel costs will cause lower future fuel demand, even though vehicle miles traveled will continue to increase both on a per capita and total basis. If only relatively low-cost fuel economy improvements are adopted after about 1985, when federal standards require no further improvements, fuel demand will decrease from the 1982 level of 11.7 billion gallons (gasoline equivalent) to 10.6 billion gallons in 2002, about a 9% reduction. Higher fuel economy levels, based on further refinements in existing technology, can produce an additional 7% reduction in fuel demand by 2002.
Stamets, L.
New results in forecasting of photovoltaic systems output based on solar radiation forecasting
Accurate short term forecasting of photovoltaic (PV) systems output has a great significance for fast development of PV parks in South-East Europe
Laurentiu Fara
Analysis Papers > Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation>Tables Analysis Papers > Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation>Tables Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Download Adobe Acrobat Reader Printer friendly version on our site are provided in Adobe Acrobat Spreadsheets are provided in Excel Actual vs. Forecasts Formats Table 2. Total Energy Consumption Excel, PDF Table 3. Total Petroleum Consumption Excel, PDF Table 4. Total Natural Gas Consumption Excel, PDF Table 5. Total Coal Consumption Excel, PDF Table 6. Total Electricity Sales Excel, PDF Table 7. Crude Oil Production Excel, PDF Table 8. Natural Gas Production Excel, PDF Table 9. Coal Production Excel, PDF Table 10. Net Petroleum Imports Excel, PDF Table 11. Net Natural Gas Imports Excel, PDF Table 12. World Oil Prices Excel, PDF Table 13. Natural Gas Wellhead Prices
Modeling and Analysis Papers> Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation>Tables Modeling and Analysis Papers> Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation>Tables Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Actual vs. Forecasts Available formats Excel (.xls) for printable spreadsheet data (Microsoft Excel required) MS Excel Viewer PDF (Acrobat Reader required Download Acrobat Reader ) Adobe Acrobat Reader Logo Table 2. Total Energy Consumption Excel, PDF Table 3. Total Petroleum Consumption Excel, PDF Table 4. Total Natural Gas Consumption Excel, PDF Table 5. Total Coal Consumption Excel, PDF Table 6. Total Electricity Sales Excel, PDF Table 7. Crude Oil Production Excel, PDF Table 8. Natural Gas Production Excel, PDF Table 9. Coal Production Excel, PDF Table 10. Net Petroleum Imports Excel, PDF Table 11. Net Natural Gas Imports Excel, PDF
energy data + forecasting | OpenEI Community
energy data + forecasting energy data + forecasting Home FRED Description: Free Energy Database Tool on OpenEI This is an open source platform for assisting energy decision makers and policy makers in formulating policies and energy plans based on easy to use forecasting tools, visualizations, sankey diagrams, and open data. The platform will live on OpenEI and this community was established to initiate discussion around continuous development of this tool, integrating it with new datasets, and connecting with the community of users who will want to contribute data to the tool and use the tool for planning purposes. Links: FRED beta demo energy data + forecasting Syndicate content 429 Throttled (bot load) Error 429 Throttled (bot load) Throttled (bot load) Guru Meditation: XID: 2084382122
Artificial Skill and Validation in Meteorological Forecasting
The results of a simulation study of multiple regression prediction models for meteorological forecasting are reported. The effects of sample size, amount, and severity of nonrepresentative data in the population, inclusion of noninformative ...
Paul W. Mielke Jr.; Kenneth J. Berry; Christopher W. Landsea; William M. Gray
Skill of Multimodel ENSO Probability Forecasts
The cross-validated hindcast skills of various multimodel ensemble combination strategies are compared for probabilistic predictions of monthly SST anomalies in the ENSO-related Ni�o-3.4 region of the tropical Pacific Ocean. Forecast data from ...
Michael K. Tippett; Anthony G. Barnston
Assessing Forecast Skill through Cross Validation
This study explains the method of cross validation for assessing forecast skill of empirical prediction models. Cross validation provides a relatively accurate measure of an empirical procedure's ability to produce a useful prediction rule from a ...
J. B. Elsner; C. P. Schmertmann
Ensemble Forecast of a Typhoon Flood Event
A high-resolution nested regional spectral model and an ensemble prediction system are combined to forecast the track, intensity, and flooding precipitation arising from Typhoon Winnie of August 1997, which eventually reached supertyphoon status. ...
Brian P. Mackey; T. N. Krishnamurti
Potential Economic Value of Seasonal Hurricane Forecasts
This paper explores the potential utility of seasonal Atlantic hurricane forecasts to a hypothetical property insurance firm whose insured properties are broadly distributed along the U.S. Gulf and East Coasts. Using a recently developed hurricane ...
Kerry Emanuel; Fabian Fondriest; James Kossin
Airborne Volcanic Ash Forecast Area Reliability
In support of aircraft flight safety operations, daily comparisons between modeled, hypothetical, volcanic ash plumes calculated with meteorological forecasts and analyses were made over a 1.5-yr period. The Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian ...
Barbara J. B. Stunder; Jerome L. Heffter; Roland R. Draxler
River flow forecasting with constructive neural network
In utilities using a mixture of hydroelectric and non-hydroelectric power, the economics of the hydroelectric plants depend upon the reservoir height and the inflow into the reservoir for several months into the future. Accurate forecasts of reservoir ...
M�user Valen�a; Teresa Ludermir; Anelle Valen�a
Forecast verification: Its Complexity and Dimensionality
Two fundamental characteristics of forecast verification problems�complexity and dimensionality�are described. To develop quantitative definitions of these characteristics, a general framework for the problem of absolute verification (AV) is ...
Consensus Forecasts of Modeled Wave Parameters
The use of numerical guidance has become integral to the process of modern weather forecasting. Using various techniques, postprocessing of numerical model output has been shown to mitigate some of the deficiencies of these models, producing more ...
Tom H. Durrant; Frank Woodcock; Diana J. M. Greenslade
Dynamical Properties of Model Output Statistics Forecasts
The dynamical properties of forecasts corrected using model output statistics (MOS) schemes are explored, with emphasis on the respective role of model and initial condition uncertainties. Analytical and numerical investigations of low-order ...
S. Vannitsem; C. Nicolis
Scientific Verification of Deterministic River Stage Forecasts
One element of a complete verification system is the ability to determine why forecasts behave as they do. This paper describes and demonstrates an operationally feasible method for conducting this type of diagnostic verification analysis. ...
Edwin Welles; Soroosh Sorooshian
Hypothesis Tests for Evaluating Numerical Precipitation Forecasts
When evaluating differences between competing precipitation forecasts, formal hypothesis testing is rarely performed. This may be due to the difficulty in applying common tests given the spatial correlation of and non-normality of errors. ...
Thomas M. Hamill
The ENIAC Forecasts: A Re-creation
The numerical forecasts made in 1950 using the Electronic Numerical Integrator and Computer (ENIAC) paved the way for the remarkable advances that have been made over the past half-century in weather prediction and climate modeling. We review the ...
NCEP Dynamical Seasonal Forecast System 2000
The new National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) numerical seasonal forecast system is described in detail. The new system is aimed at a next-generation numerical seasonal prediction in which focus is placed on land processes, initial ...
Masao Kanamitsu; Arun Kumar; Hann-Ming Henry Juang; Jae-Kyung Schemm; Wanqui Wang; Fanglin Yang; Song-You Hong; Peitao Peng; Wilber Chen; Shrinivas Moorthi; Ming Ji
MM5 Contrail Forecasting in Alaska
The fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University�National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU�NCAR) Mesoscale Model (MM5) is being used for forecasting the atmospheric layers of aircraft condensation trail (contrail) formation. Contrail ...
Martin Stuefer; Xiande Meng; Gerd Wendler
Medium- and Long-Range Forecasting
In contrast to short and extended range forecasts, predictions for periods beyond 5 days use time-averaged, midtropospheric height fields as their primary guidance. As time ranges are increased to 3O- and 90-day outlooks, guidance increasingly ...
A. James Wagner
Dynamic Algorithm for Space Weather Forecasting System
We propose to develop a dynamic algorithm that intelligently analyzes existing solar weather data and constructs an increasingly more accurate equation/algorithm for predicting solar weather accurately in real time. This dynamic algorithm analyzes a wealth of data derived from scientific research and provides increasingly accurate solar forecasts. As the database of information grows over time, this algorithm perfects itself and reduces forecast uncertainties. This will provide a vastly more effective way of processing existing data for practical use in the public and private sectors. Specifically, we created an algorithm that stores data from several sources in a way that is useable, we created the ?dynamic algorithm? used for creating accurate/effective forecasts, and we have performed preliminary benchmarks on this algorithm. The preliminary benchmarks yield surprisingly effective results thus far?forecasts have been made 8-16 hours into the future with significant magnitude and trend accuracy, which is a vast improvement over current methods employed.
Fischer, Luke D.
Forecasting Resource Supply from Scarcity Rent Data
Forecasting Resource Supply from Scarcity Rent Data Speaker(s): Larry Dale Date: December 18, 2000 - 12:00pm Location: 90-3122 Seminar HostPoint of Contact: Diana Morris This talk...
Computer Generation of Marine Weather Forecast Text
MARWORDS is a natural language text generation system which has been developed to synthesize marine forecasts for the Davis Strait area in Northern Canada. It uses standard manually produced predictions of wind speed, air temperature, and other ...
E. Goldberg; R. Kittredge; A. Polgu�re
EIA lowers forecast for summer gasoline prices
EIA lowers forecast for summer gasoline prices U.S. gasoline prices are expected to be lower this summer than previously thought. The price for regular gasoline this summer is now...
Visualizing Multiple Measures of Forecast Quality
A method for visually representing multiple measures of dichotomous (yes�no) forecast quality (probability of detection, false alarm ratio, bias, and critical success index) in a single diagram is presented. Illustration of the method is provided ...
Paul J. Roebber
Using Climate Forecasts for Drought Management
Drought hazards, and the ability to mitigate them with advance warning, offer potentially valuable applications of climate forecast products. Yet the value is often untapped, owing to the gap between climate science and societal decisions. This ...
Anne C. Steinemann
Assessing the Usefulness of Probabilistic Forecasts
The errors in both the initialization and simulated evolution of weather and climate models create significant uncertainties in forecasts at lead times beyond a few days. Modern prediction systems sample the sources of these uncertainties to ...
An Objective Basis for Forecasting Tornado Intensity
Although violent tornadoes comprise only 2.3% of tornado occurrences in the United States, they cause 68% of the fatalities attributed to tornadoes and severe thunderstorms. Despite these statistics, no attempt is made to forecast or warn of ...
J. R. Colquhoun; D. J. Shepherd
Flood Forecasting in River System Using ANFIS
The aim of the present study is to investigate applicability of artificial intelligence techniques such as ANFIS (Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System) in forecasting flood flow in a river system. The proposed technique combines the learning ability of neural network with the transparent linguistic representation of fuzzy system. The technique is applied to forecast discharge at a downstream station using flow information at various upstream stations. A total of three years data has been selected for the implementation of this model. ANFIS models with various input structures and membership functions are constructed, trained and tested to evaluate efficiency of the models. Statistical indices such as Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Correlation Coefficient (CORR) and Coefficient of Efficiency (CE) are used to evaluate performance of the ANFIS models in forecasting river flood. The values of the indices show that ANFIS model can accurately and reliably be used to forecast flood in a river system.
Ullah, Nazrin; Choudhury, P. [Dept. of Civil Eng., NIT, Silchar (India)
Updated Satellite Technique to Forecast Heavy Snow
Certain satellite interpretation techniques have proven quite useful in the heavy snow forecast process. Those considered best are briefly reviewed, and another technique is introduced. This new technique was found to be most valuable in cyclonic ...
Edward C. Johnston
Optimization of Value of Aerodrome Forecasts
Prediction of short-term variations of vital boundary layer conditions at airports, such as visibility and cloud base, is important to the safe and economic operation of airlines. Results of an experiment involving groups of forecasters at three ...
Ross Keith
Severe Thunderstorm Forecasting: A Historical Perspective
Techniques that have evolved during the hundred years that scientific severe thunderstorm forecasts have been prepared are reviewed. The early empirical rules developed by Finley, Showalter and Fulks, Fawbush, Miller and Starrett, and others have ...
Joseph T. Schaefer
Ceiling and Visibility Forecasts via Neural Networks
Statistical postprocessing of numerical model output can improve forecast quality, especially when model output is combined with surface observations. In this article, the development of nonlinear postprocessors for the prediction of ceiling and ...
Caren Marzban; Stephen Leyton; Brad Colman
Spread Calibration of Ensemble MOS Forecasts
Ensemble forecasting systems often contain systematic biases and spread deficiencies that can be corrected by statistical postprocessing. This study presents an improvement to an ensemble statistical postprocessing technique, called ensemble ...
Bruce A. Veenhuis
Snowfall Limit Forecasts and Hydrological Modeling
Hydrological flood forecasting in mountainous areas requires accurate partitioning between rain and snowfall to properly estimate the extent of runoff contributing areas. Here a method to make use of snowfall limit information�a standard output of ...
Cara Tobin; Andrea Rinaldo; Bettina Schaefli
SolarAnywhere forecast (Perez & Hoff) This chapter describes, and presents an evaluation of, the forecast models imbedded in the
SolarAnywhere forecast (Perez & Hoff) ABSTRACT This chapter describes, and presents an evaluation of, the forecast models imbedded in the SolarAnywhere platform. The models include satellite derived cloud motion based forecasts for the short to medium horizon (1 5 hours) and forecasts derived from NOAA
Perez, Richard R.
Wind Speed Forecasting for Power System Operation
In order to support large-scale integration of wind power into current electric energy system, accurate wind speed forecasting is essential, because the high variation and limited predictability of wind pose profound challenges to the power system operation in terms of the efficiency of the system. The goal of this dissertation is to develop advanced statistical wind speed predictive models to reduce the uncertainties in wind, especially the short-term future wind speed. Moreover, a criterion is proposed to evaluate the performance of models. Cost reduction in power system operation, as proposed, is more realistic than prevalent criteria, such as, root mean square error (RMSE) and absolute mean error (MAE). Two advanced space-time statistical models are introduced for short-term wind speed forecasting. One is a modified regime-switching, space-time wind speed fore- casting model, which allows the forecast regimes to vary according to the dominant wind direction and seasons. Thus, it avoids a subjective choice of regimes. The other one is a novel model that incorporates a new variable, geostrophic wind, which has strong influence on the surface wind, into one of the advanced space-time statistical forecasting models. This model is motivated by the lack of improvement in forecast accuracy when using air pressure and temperature directly. Using geostrophic wind in the model is not only critical, it also has a meaningful geophysical interpretation. The importance of model evaluation is emphasized in the dissertation as well. Rather than using RMSE or MAE, the performance of both wind forecasting models mentioned above are assessed by economic benefits with real wind farm data from Pacific Northwest of the U.S and West Texas. Wind forecasts are incorporated into power system economic dispatch models, and the power system operation cost is used as a loss measure for the performance of the forecasting models. From another perspective, the new criterion leads to cost-effective scheduling of system-wide wind generation with potential economic benefits arising from the system-wide generation of cost savings and ancillary services cost savings. As an illustration, the integrated forecasts and economic dispatch framework are applied to the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) equivalent 24- bus system. Compared with persistence and autoregressive models, the first model suggests that cost savings from integration of wind power could be on the scale of tens of millions of dollars. For the second model, numerical simulations suggest that the overall generation cost can be reduced by up to 6.6% using look-ahead dispatch coupled with spatio-temporal wind forecast as compared with dispatch with persistent wind forecast model.
Zhu, Xinxin
How Do Forecasters Utilize Output From A Convection-Permitting Ensemble Forecast System? Case Study Of A High-Impact Precipitation Event
The proliferation of ensemble forecast system output in recent years motivates this investigation into how operational forecasters utilize convection-permitting ensemble forecast system guidance in the forecast preparation process. A sixteen-...
Clark Evans; Donald F. Van Dyke; Todd Lericos
CERTS Review REAL-TIME PRICE FORECAST WITH BIG DATA A STATE SPACE APPROACH
Review Review REAL-TIME PRICE FORECAST WITH BIG DATA A STATE SPACE APPROACH Lang Tong (PI), Robert J. Thomas, Yuting Ji, and Jinsub Kim School of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Cornell University Jie Mei, Georgia Institute of Technology August 7, 2013 CERTS Review DATA QUALITY AND ITS EFFECTS ON MARKET OPERATIONS DENY OF SERVICE ATTACK ON REAL-TIME ELECTRICITY MARKET COVER UP PROTECTION AGAINST TOPOLOGY ATTACK Lang Tong (PI), Robert J. Thomas, and Jinsub Kim Cornell University August 8, 2013 Project overview Objectives Accurate short-term probabilistic forecasting of real-time LMP. Incorporate real-time measurements (e.g. SCADA/PMU). Scalable computation techniques. Summary of results A real-time LMP model with forecasting and measurement
Wind Energy Forecasting Technology Update: 2004
This report describes the status of wind energy forecasting technology for predicting wind speed and energy generation of wind energy facilities short-term (minutes to hours), intermediate-term (hours to days), and long-term (months to years) average wind speed and energy generation. The information should be useful to companies that are evaluating or planning to incorporate wind energy forecasting into their operations.
Forecasting the demand for commercial telecommunications satellites
This paper summarizes the key elements of a forecast methodology for predicting demand for commercial satellite services and the resulting demand for satellite hardware and launches. The paper discusses the characterization of satellite services into more than a dozen applications (including emerging satellite Internet applications) used by Futron Corporation in its forecasts. The paper discusses the relationship between demand for satellite services and demand for satellite hardware
Carissa Bryce Christensen; Carie A. Mullins; Linda A. Williams
Outside Projects
... Vecchia, DF, Caldwell, GA, Tryon, PV and Jones, RH (1980). "Logistic regression for solar flare probability forecasting," Solar-Terrestrial Predictions ...
Analysis & Projections - Projection Data - U.S. Energy Information
Find data from forecast models on crude oil and petroleum liquids, Find data from forecast models on crude oil and petroleum liquids, gasoline, diesel, natural gas, electricity, coal prices, supply, and demand projections and more. + EXPAND ALL Monthly Short-Term Forecasts to 2014 Additional Formats Short-Term Energy Outlook Released: January 8, 2013 WF01. Average Consumer Prices and Expenditures for Heating Fuels During the Winter PDF 1. U.S. Energy Market Summary PDF 2. U.S. Energy Prices PDF 3a. Internatioal Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Supply, Consumption, and Inventories PDF 3b. Non-OPEC Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Supply PDF 3c. OPEC Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Supply PDF 3d. World Liquid Fuels Consumption PDF 4a. U.S. Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Supply, Consumption, and Inventories PDF 4b. U.S. Petroleum Refinery Balance PDF
Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Forecasting model.
This report documents The Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Water Forecasting model. The model has been constructed using Powersim Studio (PS), a software package designed to investigate complex systems where flows and accumulations are central to the system. Here PS has been used as a platform for modeling various aspects of Nambe Pueblo's current and future water use. The model contains three major components, the Water Forecast Component, Irrigation Scheduling Component, and the Reservoir Model Component. In each of the components, the user can change variables to investigate the impacts of water management scenarios on future water use. The Water Forecast Component includes forecasting for industrial, commercial, and livestock use. Domestic demand is also forecasted based on user specified current population, population growth rates, and per capita water consumption. Irrigation efficiencies are quantified in the Irrigated Agriculture component using critical information concerning diversion rates, acreages, ditch dimensions and seepage rates. Results from this section are used in the Water Demand Forecast, Irrigation Scheduling, and the Reservoir Model components. The Reservoir Component contains two sections, (1) Storage and Inflow Accumulations by Categories and (2) Release, Diversion and Shortages. Results from both sections are derived from the calibrated Nambe Reservoir model where historic, pre-dam or above dam USGS stream flow data is fed into the model and releases are calculated.
Brainard, James Robert
Consensus forecast of U. S. energy supply and demand to the year 2000
Methods used in forecasting energy supply and demand are described, and recent forecasts are reviewed briefly. Forecasts to the year 2000 are displayed in tables and graphs and are used to prepare consensus forecasts for each form of fuel and energy supply. Fuel demand and energy use by consuming sector are tabulated for 1972 and 1975 for the various fuel forms. The distribution of energy consumption by use sector, as projected for the years 1985 and 2000 in the ERDA-48 planning report (Scenario V), is normalized to match the consensus energy supply forecasts. The results are tabulated listing future demand for each fuel and energy form by each major energy-use category. Recent estimates of U.S. energy resources are also reviewed briefly and are presented in tables for each fuel and energy form. The outlook for fossil fuel resources to the year 2040, as developed by the Institute for Energy Analysis at the Oak Ridge Associated Universities, is also presented.
Short-term energy outlook. Quarterly projections, Third quarter 1995
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly, short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections for publication in February, May, August, and November in the Short-Term Energy Outlook (Outlook). An annual supplement analyzes the performance of previous forecasts, compares recent projections with those of other forecasting services, and discusses current topics related to the short-term energy markets. The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from the third quarter of 1995 through the fourth quarter of 1996. Values for the second quarter of 1995, however, are preliminary EIA estimates.
Mid-range energy-forecasting system: structure, forecasts, and critique
The Mid-Range Energy Forecasting System (MEFS) is a large-scale, interdisciplinary model of the US energy system maintained by the US Department of Energy. MEFS provides long-run regional forecasts of delivered prices for electricity, coal, gasoline, residual, distillate, and natural gas. A number of sets of MEFS forecasts are usually issued, each set corresponding to a different scenario. Because it forecasts prices and since these forecasts are regularly disseminated, MEFS is of considerable practical interest. A critical guide of the model's output for potential users is provided in this paper. The model's logic is described, the latest forecasts from MEFS are presented, and the reasonableness of both the forecasts and the methodology are critically evaluated. The manner in which MEFS interfaces with the Oil Market Simulation Model, which forecasts crude oil price, is also discussed. The evaluation concludes that while there are serious problems with MEFS, selective use can prove very helpful. 17 references, 1 figure, 2 tables.
DeSouza, G.
Forecasting Solar Radiation -- Preliminary Evaluation of an Approach Based upon the National Forecast Database
Our objective is to develop, and undertake a preliminary evaluation of a simple solar radiation forecast model using sky cover predictions from the National Digital Forecast Database as an input. This report describes the model and presents a limited evaluation of its performance against ground-measured and satellite-derived irradiances in Albany, New York.
Perez, R.; Moore, K.; Wilcox, S.; Renne, D.; Zelenka, A.
Maintaining the Role of Humans in the Forecast Process: Analyzing the Psyche of Expert Forecasters
The Second Forum on the Future Role of the Human in the Forecast Process occurred on 2�3 August 2005 at the American Meteorological Society's Weather Analysis and Forecasting Conference in Washington, D.C. The forum consisted of three sessions. ...
Neil A. Stuart; David M. Schultz; Gary Klein
Developing a Practical Forecasting Screener for Domestic Violence Incidents for the Los Angeles County Sheriff's Department
Developing a Practical Forecasting Screener for Domesticdevelop a state-of-the- art forecasting tool to predict suchto be used solely for forecasting. Whether these perceptions
Berk, Richard; He, Yan; Sorenson, Susan B.
Hydrologic scales, cloud variability, remote sensing, and models: Implications for forecasting snowmelt and streamflow
econ. WEATHER AND FORECASTING Environmental decisions (1993seasonal, and WEATHER AND FORECASTING V OLUME 19 spatialfor details. WEATHER AND FORECASTING V OLUME 19 T ABLE 2.
Simpson, James J; Dettinger, M D; Gehrke, F; McIntire, T J; Hufford, G L
Richard Berk; Yan He; Susan B. Sorenson
Reliable before-fabrication forecasting of expected surface slope distributions for x-ray optics
Reliable before-fabrication forecasting of expected surfacefor highly reliable forecasting of the expected surfaceaccuracy of this type of forecasting by comparing the power
Yashchuk, Yekaterina V.
Berk, Richard; Sorenson, Susan B.; He, Yan
Calibration of a distributed flood forecasting model with input uncertainty using a Bayesian framework
Calibrated probabilistic forecasting using ensemble modelSutcliffe (1970), River flow forecasting through conceptuala Distributed Flood Forecasting Model with Input Uncertainty
Li, M.
Controlling inventory by improving demand forecasting within the alcoholic beverage industry : a case study.
??This thesis explores how combing statistical demand forecasting methods and causal forecasting methods with judgmental forecasts via a Sales and Operation Planning process can improve� (more)
Deng, Xiaomu
Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix C: Demand Forecast
Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix C: Demand Forecast Energy Demand................................................................................................................................. 1 Demand Forecast Methodology.................................................................................................. 3 New Demand Forecasting Model for the Sixth Plan
Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Chapter 3: Electricity Demand Forecast
Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Chapter 3: Electricity Demand Forecast Summary............................................................................................................ 2 Sixth Power Plan Demand Forecast................................................................................................ 4 Demand Forecast Range
Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast
Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast Introduction................................................................................................................................. 3 Price Forecasts............................................................................................................................... 12 Oil Price Forecast Range
Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix B: Economic Forecast
Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix B: Economic Forecast Role of the Economic Forecast.................................................................................. 19 Forecasting Commercial Floor Space Requirements
Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Actual vs. Forecasts Available formats Excel (.xls) for printable spreadsheet data (Microsoft Excel required) PDF (Acrobat Reader required) Table 2. Total Energy Consumption HTML, Excel, PDF Table 3. Total Petroleum Consumption HTML, Excel, PDF Table 4. Total Natural Gas Consumption HTML, Excel, PDF Table 5. Total Coal Consumption HTML, Excel, PDF Table 6. Total Electricity Sales HTML, Excel, PDF Table 7. Crude Oil Production HTML, Excel, PDF Table 8. Natural Gas Production HTML, Excel, PDF Table 9. Coal Production HTML, Excel, PDF Table 10. Net Petroleum Imports HTML, Excel, PDF Table 11. Net Natural Gas Imports HTML, Excel, PDF Table 12. Net Coal Exports HTML, Excel, PDF Table 13. World Oil Prices HTML, Excel, PDF
Communicating Uncertainty in Weather Forecasts: A Survey of the U.S. Public
Weather forecasts are inherently uncertain, and meteorologists have information about weather forecast uncertainty that is not readily available to most forecast users. Yet effectively communicating forecast uncertainty to nonmeteorologists ...
Rebecca E. Morss; Julie L. Demuth; Jeffrey K. Lazo