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Office of Scientific and Technical Information
Base case and perturbation scenarios
SciTech Connect
This report describes fourteen energy factors that could affect electricity markets in the future (demand, process, source mix, etc.). These fourteen factors are believed to have the most influence on the State? s energy environment. A base case, or most probable, characterization is given for each of these fourteen factors over a twenty year time horizon. The base case characterization is derived from quantitative and qualitative information provided by State of California government agencies, where possible. Federal government databases are nsed where needed to supplement the California data. It is envisioned that a initial selection of issue areas will be based upon an evaluation of them under base case conditions. For most of the fourteen factors, the report identities possible perturbations from base case values or assumptions that may be used to construct additional scenarios. Only those perturbations that are plausible and would have a significant effect on energy markets are included in the table. The fourteen factors and potential perturbations of the factors are listed in Table 1.1. These perturbations can be combined to generate internally consist.ent. combinations of perturbations relative to the base case. For example, a low natural gas price perturbation should be combined with a high natural gas demand perturbation. The factor perturbations are based upon alternative quantitative forecasts provided by other institutions (the Department of Energy - Energy Information Administration in some cases), changes in assumptions that drive the quantitative forecasts, or changes in assumptions about the structure of the California energy markets. The perturbations are intended to be used for a qualitative reexamination of issue areas after an initial evaluation under the base case. The perturbation information would be used as a ?tiebreaker;? to make decisions regarding those issue areas that were marginally accepted or rejected under the base case. Hf a quantitative scoring system for issue areas were applied under the base case, a tractable quantitative decision model incorporating scenarios and their likelihoods could be developed and appli& in the decision process. LLNL has developed four perturbation scenarios that address the following issues: l} low economic growth, 2) high natural gas prices, 3) dysfunctional markets, and 4) a preference for green power. We have proposed a plausible scenario that addresses each issue for discussion and consideration by the CEC. In addition, we have provided an example application of the four perturbation scenarios in a qualitative framework for evaluation of issue areas developed for the PIEPC program. A description of each of the perturbation scenarios and a discussion of how they could effect decisions about today? s R&D funding is included. The scenarios attempt to cover a broad spectrum of plausible outcomes in a deregulated market environment. Nowever, Vhey are not a comprehensive and rigorously defined list of the most probable scenarios, but rather a qualitative inference based upon knowledge and expertise in the energy field.
Edmunds, T
Ensemble-Based Exigent Analysis. Part I: Estimating Worst-Case Weather-Related Forecast Damage Scenarios
Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)
Exigent analysis supplements an ensemble forecast of weather-related damage with a map of the worst-case scenario (WCS), a multivariate confidence bound of the damage. For multivariate Gaussian ensembles, ensemble-based exigent analysis uses a ...
Daniel Gombos; Ross N. Hoffman
Multi-Path Transportation Futures Study: Vehicle Characterization and Scenario Analyses - Appendix E: Other NEMS-MP Results for the Base Case and Scenarios
NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)
Appendix E: Other NEMS-MP Results Appendix E: Other NEMS-MP Results for the Base Case and Scenarios Energy Systems Division Availability of This Report This report is available, at no cost, at http://www.osti.gov/bridge. It is also available on paper to the U.S. Department of Energy and its contractors, for a processing fee, from: U.S. Department of Energy Office of Scientific and Technical Information P.O. Box 62
Appendix E: Other NEMS-MP results for the base case and scenarios.
DOE Green Energy (OSTI)
The NEMS-MP model generates numerous results for each run of a scenario. (This model is the integrated National Energy Modeling System [NEMS] version used for the Multi-Path Transportation Futures Study [MP].) This appendix examines additional findings beyond the primary results reported in the Multi-Path Transportation Futures Study: Vehicle Characterization and Scenario Analyses (Reference 1). These additional results are provided in order to help further illuminate some of the primary results. Specifically discussed in this appendix are: (1) Energy use results for light vehicles (LVs), including details about the underlying total vehicle miles traveled (VMT), the average vehicle fuel economy, and the volumes of the different fuels used; (2) Resource fuels and their use in the production of ethanol, hydrogen (H{sub 2}), and electricity; (3) Ethanol use in the scenarios (i.e., the ethanol consumption in E85 vs. other blends, the percent of travel by flex fuel vehicles on E85, etc.); (4) Relative availability of E85 and H2 stations; (5) Fuel prices; (6) Vehicle prices; and (7) Consumer savings. These results are discussed as follows: (1) The three scenarios (Mixed, (P)HEV & Ethanol, and H2 Success) when assuming vehicle prices developed through literature review; (2) The three scenarios with vehicle prices that incorporate the achievement of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) program vehicle cost goals; (3) The three scenarios with 'literature review' vehicle prices, plus vehicle subsidies; and (4) The three scenarios with 'program goals' vehicle prices, plus vehicle subsidies. The four versions or cases of each scenario are referred to as: Literature Review No Subsidies, Program Goals No Subsidies, Literature Review with Subsidies, and Program Goals with Subsidies. Two additional points must be made here. First, none of the results presented for LVs in this section include Class 2B trucks. Results for this class are included occasionally in Reference 1. They represent a small, though noticeable, segment of the 'LV plus 2B' market (e.g., a little more than 3% of today's energy use in that market). We generally do not include them in this discussion, simply because it requires additional effort to combine the NEMS-MP results for them with the results for the other LVs. (Where there is an exception, we will indicate so.) Second, where reference is made to E85, the ethanol content is actually 74%. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) assumes that, to address cold-starting issues, the percent of ethanol in E85 will vary seasonally. The EIA uses an annual average ethanol content of 74% in its forecasts. That assumption is maintained in the NEMS-MP scenario runs.
Plotkin, S. E.; Singh, M. K.; Energy Systems
Recoverable Robust Knapsack: the Discrete Scenario Case
E-Print Network (OSTI)
Feb 24, 2011... different customers according to their demands maximizing the profit of ... In this paper, we show that for a fixed number of discrete scenarios ...
A lifestyle-based scenario, Energy Policy A lifestyle-based scenario for U.S. buildings
A lifestyle-based scenario, Energy Policy A lifestyle-based scenario for U.S. buildings the speculative nature of the #12;A lifestyle-based scenario, Energy Policy exercise, the rationale was to broaden implications of these changes, and how might we create energy policies to 2 #12;A lifestyle-based scenario
Diamond, Richard
A lifestyle-based scenario, Energy Policy A lifestyle-based scenario for U.S. buildings, and how might we create energy policies to take these changes into account. The assumption here environment. #12;A lifestyle-based scenario, Energy Policy 2 2. Methodology Forecasts for energy use
Ensemble-Based Exigent Analysis. Part II: Using Ensemble Regression to Estimate Conditions Antecedent to Worst-Case Forecast Damage Scenarios
In Part I of this series on ensemble-based exigent analysis, a Lagrange multiplier minimization technique is used to estimate the exigent damage state (ExDS), the "worst case" with respect to a user-specified damage function and confidence level. ...
Scenario Scenario HELP Index Summary Scenario References Student Pages A United States Regional Study The 4th and 5th grade gifted and talented students in the Project Idea Plus classes at Highlands School and Mill Street School apparently have just received e-mail from Moscow, Russia! Actually, these two classes are involved in a humanities simulation. Check out these hints for facilitating the unit. Most school district curricula include the traditional United States regional study. This project is an innovative way to cover the same material emphasizing engaged learning with the Internet. It is a unit that integrates social studies and language arts as well as thinking skills. The teachers have planned this project so that their classes will be able to interact using telecommunications. This offers an opportunity for students
Scenario Scenario Summary Student Page Internet Links Index These are the first few days of the 96 - 97 course and a new list of students has been given to the teacher. Twenty-seven new students will form his class, some with familiar surnames. Most of the students in the bilingual 4th & 5th grade need extra help in some of the subject areas of instruction. Some students just came from another country and have very little educational experiences. Most of them lack the Basic English skills to succeed and compete in a regular classroom. The challenge is there! How being so close to the XXI Century, "The Information Era," will the teacher be able to provide his students with, the necessary skills to succeed in the job market of the future? Fortunately, a few months ago the teacher was
Project Project RELATIVITY Scenario HELP Index Summary Scenario Reference Student Pages Introduction: Mr. Brian Wegley is part of a talented science staff at Glenbrook South High School. Glenbrook South High School is set in an educationally supportive and affluent community. The physics staff work in teams teaching physics to over 80% of the student population and are constantly looking for ways to use technology to empower students with the ability to apply learned concepts of physics to their lives. With this goal in mind, the physics staff has instituted a second-semester project which is an engaging, student directed project. It currently runs parallel with a traditionally-formatted, highly-structured physics course and is preceded by many smaller, developmental projects during the first semester. The
SPACE SPACE Scenario HELP Index Summary Scenario Internet Links Student Pages September The students from 7-2 team at Grissom Junior High have started the school year by sending e-mail messages about themselves to sixth graders at a Chicago public school and high school students in Nashville. They have sent a message about how they are looking forward to sharing ideas on astronomy and short biography about Grissom and themselves. They hope to set up a project with the two schools. Other students want to know if other schools around the world could be contacted. The math teacher says she will try to make arrangements but to see if they could come up with some ideas on ways they could contact other schools themselves. Astronomy is part of the seventh grade science curriculum. This year, the
Learning from vacuously satisfiable scenario-based specifications
Scenarios and use cases are popular means for supporting requirements elicitation and elaboration. They provide examples of how the system-to-be and its environment can interact. However, such descriptions, when large, are cumbersome to reason about, ...
Dalal Alrajeh; Jeff Kramer; Alessandra Russo; Sebastian Uchitel
Late Pleistocene Ice Age Scenarios Based on Observational Evidence
Ice age scenarios for the last glacial-interglacial cycle, based on observations of Boyle and Keigwin concerning the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation and of Barnola et al. concerning atmospheric C02 variations derived from the Vostok ice ...
G. DeBlonde; W. R. Peltier
Automated Prototyping of User Interfaces Based on UML Scenarios
User interface (UI) prototyping and scenario engineering have become popular techniques. Yet, the transition from scenario to formal specifications and the generation of UI code is still ill-defined and essentially a manual task, and the two techniques ... Keywords: Unified Modeling Language, scenario engineering, user interface prototyping
Mohammed Elkoutbi; Ismaďl Khriss; Rudolf K. Keller
Geographically-Based Hydrogen Demand & Infrastructure Rollout Scenario Analysis (Presentation)
This presentation by Margo Melendez at the 2007 DOE Hydrogen Program Annual Merit Review Meeting provides information about NREL's Hydrogen Demand & Infrastructure Rollout Scenario Analysis.
Melendez, M.
jSynoPSys -- A Scenario-Based Testing Tool based on the Symbolic Animation of B Machines
This paper presents the jSynoPSys tool that implements the concept of Scenario-Based Testing from B machines. This consists in describing execution scenarios, expressed as regular expressions over the operations of the system, coupled with intermediate ... Keywords: B machines, Test generation, constraint solving, scenario-based testing, symbolic animation
Frédéric Dadeau; Régis Tissot
Uncertainty Assessment of Future Hydroclimatic Predictions: A Comparison of Probabilistic and Scenario-Based Approaches
During the last decade, numerous studies have been carried out to predict future climate based on climatic models run on the global scale and fed by plausible scenarios about anthropogenic forcing to climate. Based on climatic model output, ...
D. Koutsoyiannis; A. Efstratiadis; K. P. Georgakakos
Scenario based performance optimisation in face verification using smart cards
We discuss the effect of an optimisation strategy to be applied to image data in a smart card based face verification system. Accordingly, we propose a system architecture considering the trade-off between performance versus the improvement of memory ...
Thirimachos Bourlai; Kieron Messer; Josef Kittler
Ontology-based Software for Generating Scenarios for Characterizing Searches for Nuclear Materials
A software environment was created in which ontologies are used to significantly expand the number and variety of scenarios for special nuclear materials (SNM) detection based on a set of simple generalized initial descriptions. A framework was built that combined advanced reasoning from ontologies with geographical and other data sources to generate a much larger list of specific detailed descriptions from a simple initial set of user-input variables. This presentation shows how basing the scenario generation on a process of inferencing from multiple ontologies, including a new SNM Detection Ontology (DO) combined with data extraction from geodatabases, provided the desired significant variability of scenarios for testing search algorithms, including unique combinations of variables not previously expected. The various components of the software environment and the resulting scenarios generated will be discussed.
Ward, Richard C [ORNL; Sorokine, Alexandre [ORNL; Schlicher, Bob G [ORNL; Wright, Michael C [ORNL; Kruse, Kara L [ORNL
Environmental performance of construction waste: Comparing three scenarios from a case study in Catalonia, Spain
The main objective of this paper is to evaluate environmental impacts of construction wastes in terms of the LIFE 98 ENV/E/351 project. Construction wastes are classified in accordance with the Life Program Environment Directive of the European Commission. Three different scenarios to current waste management from a case study in Catalonia (Spain) have been compared: landfilling, recycling and incineration, and these scenarios were evaluated by means of Life Cycle Assessment. The recommendations of the Catalan Waste Catalogue and the European Waste Catalogue have been taken into account. Also, the influence of transport has been evaluated. Results show that in terms of the Global Warming Potential, the most environmentally friendly treatment was recycling, followed by incineration and lastly landfilling. According to the influence of treatment plants location on the GWP indicator, we observe that incineration and recycling of construction wastes are better than landfilling, even for long distances from the building site to the plants. This is true for most wastes except for the stony types, than should be recycled close to the building site. In summary, data from construction waste of a Catalan case study was evaluated using the well established method of LCA to determine the environmental impacts.
Ortiz, O., E-mail: email@example.com [Rovira i Virgili University, Environmental Analysis and Management Group (AGA), Chemical Engineering Department, Av. Paisos Catalans 26, 43007, Tarragona (Spain); University of Pamplona, Department of Industrial Engineering, Km 1 Via Bucaramanga, Pamplona, N de S (Colombia); Pasqualino, J.C.; Castells, F. [Rovira i Virgili University, Environmental Analysis and Management Group (AGA), Chemical Engineering Department, Av. Paisos Catalans 26, 43007, Tarragona (Spain)
Realisable Scenarios for a Future Electricity Supply based 100% on Renewable Energies
Realisable Scenarios for a Future Electricity Supply based 100% on Renewable Energies Gregor Czisch that we must transform our energy system into one using only renewable energies. But questions arise how. These questions were the focus of a study which investigated the cost optimum of a future renewable electricity
Psychiatric Consultation Record Retrieval Using Scenario-Based Representation and Multilevel Mixture Model
Psychiatric consultation record retrieval attempts to help people to efficiently and effectively locate the consultation records relevant to their depressive problems. Consultation records can also make people aware that they are not alone, because many ... Keywords: Information retrieval (IR), multilevel mixture model (MMM), natural language processing, scenario-based representation, text mining
Liang-Chih Yu; Chung-Hsien Wu; Fong-Lin Jang
Guidance materials based on use of conceptual model scenarios were developed to assist evaluation and implementation of attenuation-based remedies for groundwater and vadose zones contaminated with inorganic and radionuclide contaminants. The Scenarios approach is intended to complement the comprehensive information provided in the US EPA's Technical Protocol for Monitored Natural Attenuation (MNA) of Inorganic Contaminants by providing additional information on site conceptual models and extending the evaluation to consideration of Enhanced Attenuation approaches. The conceptual models incorporate the notion of reactive facies, defined as units with hydrogeochemical properties that are different from surrounding units and that react with contaminants in distinct ways. The conceptual models also incorporate consideration of biogeochemical gradients, defined as boundaries between different geochemical conditions that have been induced by waste disposal or other natural phenomena. Gradients can change over time when geochemical conditions from one area migrate into another, potentially affecting contaminant mobility. A recognition of gradients allows the attenuation-affecting conditions of a site to be projected into the future. The Scenarios approach provides a stepwise process to identify an appropriate category of conceptual model and refine it for a specific site. Scenario materials provide links to pertinent sections in the EPA technical protocol and present information about contaminant mobility and important controlling mechanism for attenuation-based remedies based on the categories of conceptual models.
Vangelas, K.; Rysz, M.; Truex, M.; Brady, P.; Newell, C.; Denham, M.
Ontology-Based Network Management: Study Cases and Lessons Learned
Ontology based network management has recently evolved from a theoretical proposal to a more mature technology. As such, it is now being applied in many research projects in a number of different network management and security scenarios. This application ... Keywords: Autonomic management, Lessons learned, Network monitoring, Network security, OWL, Ontology-based network management, SWRL, Study case
Jorge E. López De Vergara; Antonio Guerrero; Víctor A. Villagrá; Julio Berrocal
Scenario analysis using Bayesian networks: A case study in energy sector
This paper provides a general overview of creating scenarios for energy policies using Bayesian Network (BN) models. BN is a useful tool to analyze the complex structures, which allows observation of the current structure and basic consequences of any ... Keywords: Bayesian networks, Causal maps, Energy investments, Scenario analysis
Didem Cinar; Gulgun Kayakutlu
Radiation Detection Scenario Analysis Toolbox (RADSAT) Test Case Implementation Final Report
Final report for the project. This project was designed to demonstrate the use of the Radiation Detection Scenario Analysis Toolbox (RADSAT) radiation detection transport modeling package (developed in a previous NA-22 project) for specific radiation detection scenarios important to proliferation detection.
Shaver, Mark W.
Representing Instructional Material for Scenario-Based Guided-Discovery Courseware
The focus of this paper is to discuss paradigms for learning that are based on sound principles of human learning and cognition, and to discuss technical challenges that must be overcome in achieving this research goal through instructional system design (ISD) approaches that are cost-effective as well as conformant with today's interactive multimedia instruction standards. Fundamental concepts are to: engage learners to solve real-world problems (progress from simple to complex); relate material to previous experience; demonstrate what is to be learned using interactive, problem-centered activities rather than passive exposure to material; require learners to use their new knowledge to solve problems that demonstrate their knowledge in a relevant applied setting; and guide the learner with feedback and coaching early, then gradually withdraw this support as learning progresses. Many of these principles have been put into practice by employing interactive learning objects as re-usable components of larger, more integrated exercises. A challenge is to make even more extensive use of interactive, scenario-based activities within a guided-discovery framework. Because the design and construction of interactive, scenario-based learning objects and more complex integrated exercises is labor-intensive, this paper explores the use of interactive learning objects and associated representation schema for instructional content to facilitate development of tools for creating scenario-based, guided-discovery courseware.
Greitzer, Frank L.; Merrill, M. DAVID.; Rice, Douglas M.; Curtis, Darren S.
Base isolation case study
The primary objective of this thesis is the introduction of the current code, ASCE 7-05 into the base isolation design and the analysis of base isolation response due to seismic forces. An eight story irregular structure ...
Ching, Kenneth A. (Kenneth Apostol)
Scenario development for water resources planning and watershed management: Methodology and semi-arid region case study
Utilizing the scenario development framework from Mahmoud et al. (2009), a set of scenarios were developed for and applied in the Verde River Watershed in Arizona, USA. Through a scenario definition exercise, three dimensions of future change with respective ... Keywords: Scenario development, Scenario planning, Scenarios, Water resources management, Water resources planning
Mohammed I. Mahmoud; Hoshin V. Gupta; Seshadri Rajagopal
Disrupting digital library development with scenario informed design
In recent years, there has been great interest in scenario-based design and other forms of user-centred design. However, there are many design processes that, often for good reason, remain technology-centred. We present a case study of introducing scenarios ... Keywords: Digital libraries, Scenario based design, Software development processes, Usability evaluation
Ann Blandford; Suzette Keith; Richard Butterworth; Bob Fields; Dominic Furniss
User interface prototyping based on UML scenarios and high-level Petri nets
In this paper, we suggest a requirement engineering process that generates a user interface prototype from scenarios and yields a formal specification of the system in form of a high-level Petri net. Scenarios are acquired in the form of sequence diagrams ... Keywords: high-level petri net, scenario specification, unified modeling language, user interface prototyping
Mohammed Elkoutbi; Rudolf K. Keller
Simulating worst case scenarios and analyzing their combined effect in operational release planning
Operational release planning (ORP) is concerned with assigning humanresources to development tasks in software projects such that a defined setof product features can be completed under given constraints. In this paper, wepresent a simulation-based approach ... Keywords: discrete-event simulation, release planning, resource allocation, uncertainty
Ahmed Al-Emran; Puneet Kapur; Dietmar Pfahl; Guenther Ruhe
Scenario analysis for reverse logistics implementation case study of the Palm Oil supply chain
This work shows the potential reverse logistic flows that can be implemented in the Palm Oil supply chain, based in the waste management and the recovery flows that are obtained trough the agents that made part in the chain. In this context, the study ...
Edgar Alfonso; Diego Ferrucho; Angel Roldán; Mario Vargas; Freddy González
PERSPECTIVES Scenarios &
Buildings Transport Industry Transformation Power Generation ACT Scenarios 2050 +137% #12;INTERNATIONAL Buildings Transport Industry Transformation Power Generation ACT Scenarios 2050 +137% +6% #12;INTERNATIONAL Baseline 2030 Baseline 2050 Map No CCS Other Buildings Transport Industry Transformation Power Generation
High DSM Scenario Request for the 2011 TEPPC Transmission Expansion Plan (and Treatment of DSM in Reference Case/Other Scenarios) Recommendation of the State/Provincial Steering Committee DSM Working Group
At the November 6, 2009 meeting of the State-Provincial Steering Committee (SPSC), the SPSC agreed that it would submit a high DSM scenario to TEPPC and requested that the DSM Working Group prepare the request, for review and approval by the SPSC. This document outlines the approach recommended by the DSM Work Group for developing a high DSM scenario, to be modeled in the 2011 TEPPC 10-Year Transmission Expansion Plan. 1 In addition, the DSM Working Group has developed recommendations for the treatment of DSM in the reference case and two scenarios (Carbon Reduction and Breakthrough Technology) proposed by the Scenario Working Group. Table 1 sets for the recommended approach for these items, for energy efficiency (EE), demand response (DR), combined heat and power (CHP) and distribution system efficiency upgrades. These recommendations have been informed by the technical assistance of Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) and the non-state officials participating in the DSM Working Group, as well as the state official/commissioner members of the Group.
unknown authors
A scenario-based approach towards open collaboration for policy modelling
In the context of current increasing variety, interconnectivity and alteration, many methods and tools for planning and decision-making such as time series analysis and trend extrapolation do not longer work out. Along the demands for good governance ... Keywords: open collaboration, policy development, scenario building, stakeholder involvement
Melanie Bicking; Maria A. Wimmer
Evaluating functional displays for hydropower system: model-based guidance of scenario design
We discuss the human role in hydropower system control, noting how it is different from other supervisory control environments and noting the typical shortcomings in current displays provided to hydropower system controllers. We describe steps towards ... Keywords: Evaluation, Functional displays, Human control model, Human supervisory control, Hydropower system control, Scenario design, Situation awareness, Trust
Xilin Li; Penelope Sanderson; Rizah Memisevic; William Wong; Sanjib Choudhury
Scenario Tree-Based Heuristics for Stochastic Inventory-Routing Problems
In vendor-managed inventory replenishment, the vendor decides when to make deliveries to customers, how much to deliver, and how to combine shipments using the available vehicles. This gives rise to the inventory-routing problem in which the goal is ... Keywords: heuristic, inventory routing, scenario, stochastic
Lars Magnus Hvattum; Arne Lřkketangen; Gilbert Laporte
Program on Technology Innovation: Scenario-Based Technology R&D Strategy for the Electric Power Industry: Final Report
To help address the many challenges facing the electric power industry in the next 20 years, an effective process of technology R&D planning is needed. Based on input from a broad range of stakeholders and using a proven scenario planning process, this report presents a comprehensive technology R&D strategy for the next two decades that spans the breadth and depth of challenges and opportunities facing the North American electric utility industry.
An overview of alternative fossil fuel price and carbon regulation scenarios
the Base case scenario. The Xcel/PSCo 2004 IRP applied four$49.21 tax. In Colorado, Xcel/PSCo's 2004 IRP estimated the
Wiser, Ryan; Bolinger, Mark
Supporting use case based requirements engineering
Use Cases that describe possible interactions involving a system and its environment are increasingly being accepted as effective means for functional requirements elicitation and analysis. In the current practice, informal definitions of use cases are used and the analysis process is manual. In this paper, we present an approach supported by a tool for use cases based requirements engineering. Our approach includes use cases formalization, a restricted form of natural language for use cases description, and the derivation of an executable specification as well as a simulation environment from use cases. Key words: Use cases, domain modeling, UML, requirements engineering, prototyping
Stéphane S. Somé
Fuel Cycle Analysis Framework Base Cases for the IAEA/INPRO GAINS Collaborative Project
Thirteen countries participated in the Collaborative Project GAINS "Global Architecture of Innovative Nuclear Energy Systems Based on Thermal and Fast Reactors Including a Closed Fuel Cycle", which was the primary activity within the IAEA/INPRO Program Area B: "Global Vision on Sustainable Nuclear Energy" for the last three years. The overall objective of GAINS was to develop a standard framework for assessing future nuclear energy systems taking into account sustainable development, and to validate results through sample analyses. This paper details the eight scenarios that constitute the GAINS framework base cases for analysis of the transition to future innovative nuclear energy systems. The framework base cases provide a reference for users of the framework to start from in developing and assessing their own alternate systems. Each base case is described along with performance results against the GAINS sustainability evaluation metrics. The eight cases include four using a moderate growth projection and four using a high growth projection for global nuclear electricity generation through 2100. The cases are divided into two sets, addressing homogeneous and heterogeneous scenarios developed by GAINS to model global fuel cycle strategies. The heterogeneous world scenario considers three separate nuclear groups based on their fuel cycle strategies, with non-synergistic and synergistic cases. The framework base case analyses results show the impact of these different fuel cycle strategies while providing references for future users of the GAINS framework. A large number of scenario alterations are possible and can be used to assess different strategies, different technologies, and different assumptions about possible futures of nuclear power. Results can be compared to the framework base cases to assess where these alternate cases perform differently versus the sustainability indicators.
Brent Dixon
Zero-Emission Vehicle Scenario Cost Analysis Using A Fuzzy Set-Based Framework
1910 to 1980, the success of steam turbines led to a case ofescape the lock-in to steam turbine technology. First, gasdevices to improve steam turbine performance, and then they
Lipman, Timothy Edward
Measurement Based Scenario Analysis of Short-Range Distribution System Planning
year to set up a distributed are: no component on outage, one substation transformer on generation (DG obtained through derived from the historical measurement data and incorporated a worst-case analysis system at demonstrated when investigating the system in a 5-year lead Støvring in Denmark. Simulation
Bak-Jensen, Birgitte
A271 PHYSICS AND CONTROL OF ELMING H-MODE NEGATIVE CENTRAL SHEAR ADVANCED TOKAMAK SCENARIO BASED ON EXPERIMENTAL PROFILES FOR ITER. Key DIII-D AT experimental and modeling results are applied to examine the physics and control issues for ITER to operate in a negative central shear (NCS) AT scenario. The effects of a finite edge pressure pedestal and current density are included based on the DIII-D experimental profiles. Ideal and resistive stability analyses indicate that feedback control of resistive wall modes by rotational drive or flux conserving intelligent coils is crucial for these AT configurations to operate at attractive {beta}{sub N} values in the range of 3.0-3.5. Vertical stability and halo current analyses show that reliable disruption mitigation is essential and mitigation control using an impurity gas can significantly reduce the local mechanical stress to an acceptable level. Core transport and turbulence analyses demonstrate that control of the rotational shear profile is essential to maintain the good confinement necessary for high {beta}. Consideration of edge stability and core transport suggests that a sufficiently wide pedestal is necessary for the projected fusion performance. Heat flux analyses indicate that with core-only radiation enhancement the outboard peak divertor heat load is near the design limit of 10 MW/m{sup 2}
Integrating both Wikis and XML with case bases to facilitate case base development and maintenance
Case-based reasoning (CBR), as a promising technology for problem solving and decision support, has drawn considerable attention during the last 20years. As CBR systems become more frequently deployed in real-world situations and as large-scale case-bases ... Keywords: Case-based reasoning, Integration, Open XML, Wikis
Wu He; Lida Xu
industry experts believe that new vehicle designs based on fuel cells, electricElectric Power Research Institute, Pricing for Success: Using Auto Industry Models to Review Electric Vehicle
Capacitive sensor-based hand gesture recognition in ambient intelligence scenarios
Input devices based on arrays of capacitive proximity sensors allow the tracking of a user's hands in three dimensions. They can be hidden behind materials such as wood, wool or plastics without limiting their functionality, making them ideal for application ... Keywords: ambient intelligence, capacitive proximity sensors, gesture recognition, input devices, smart environments, user interfaces
Andreas Braun, Tim Dutz, Felix Kamieth
WebPatrol: automated collection and replay of web-based malware scenarios
Traditional remote-server-exploiting malware is quickly evolving and adapting to the new web-centric computing paradigm. By leveraging the large population of (insecure) web sites and exploiting the vulnerabilities at client-side modern (complex) browsers ... Keywords: drive-by download, malicious script, web-based malware analysis and collection
Kevin Zhijie Chen; Guofei Gu; Jianwei Zhuge; Jose Nazario; Xinhui Han
RESEARCH ARTICLE Optimal Scenario Tree Reduction for ...
scenarios) for streamflows of the jth hydroelectric plant. Our choice is based on the fact that when scenarios are discarded, variance tends to decrease.
Maintaining Footprint-Based Retrieval for Case Deletion
The effectiveness and efficiency of case-based reasoning (CBR) systems depend largely on the success of case-based retrieval. The case-base maintenance (CBM) issues become imperative and important especially for modern societies. This paper proposes ... Keywords: case-based maintenance, case-based reasoning, competence models, footprint-based retrieval
Ning Lu; Jie Lu; Guangquan Zhang
Salt Creek Scenario
Scenario Scenario HELP Index Summary Scenario References Student Pages Two branches of Salt Creek run through the city of Rolling Meadows, Illinois, not far from our school. Five members of our team of eighth grade teachers from different subject areas (science, language arts, bilingual education and special education), decided to develop an interdisciplinary study of Salt Creek as a way of giving our students authentic experiences in environmental studies. The unit begins when students enter school in August, running through the third week of September, and resuming for three weeks in October. Extension activities based on using the data gathered at the creek continue throughout the school year, culminating in a presentation at a city council meeting in the spring.
A service scenario generation scheme based on association rule mining for elderly surveillance system in a smart home environment
More convenient smart home environments can be constructed by monitoring home appliances, if automated services are supported by their usage information. This paper proposes a scheme for translating association rules among appliances mined from their ... Keywords: Association rule mining, Service scenario, Surveillance system
Kyung Jin Kang; Borey Ka; Sung Jo Kim
1980 Base case and feasibility analysis
This report describes a task of documenting a base case'' and performing a feasibility analysis for a national residential energy efficiency program for new homes, The principal objective of the task wasto estimate the energy consumption of typical homes built in 1980 and then to identify and assess the feasibility of methods to reduce that consumption by 50%. The goal of the program by the year 2000 is to reduce heating and cooling energy use in new homes built under the program to one-half of the energy use in typical new homes built in 1980. The task also calls for determining whether the program goal should be revised, based on the analysis.
This report describes a task of documenting a ``base case`` and performing a feasibility analysis for a national residential energy efficiency program for new homes, The principal objective of the task wasto estimate the energy consumption of typical homes built in 1980 and then to identify and assess the feasibility of methods to reduce that consumption by 50%. The goal of the program by the year 2000 is to reduce heating and cooling energy use in new homes built under the program to one-half of the energy use in typical new homes built in 1980. The task also calls for determining whether the program goal should be revised, based on the analysis.
Transport Test Problems for Radiation Detection Scenarios
This is the final report and deliverable for the project. It is a list of the details of the test cases for radiation detection scenarios.
Shaver, Mark W.; Miller, Erin A.; Wittman, Richard S.; McDonald, Benjamin S.
Using case-based tests to detect gray cygnets
Black Swans are surprising, exceptional, provocative cases that instigate major change. Gray Cygnets follow a Black Swan, are highly similar to it, are also exceptional in outcome, and continue to provoke change. We discuss experiments with a family ... Keywords: black swans, case similarity, case-based reasoning, classification tests, gray cygnets, supreme on-point case (sopc), surprising cases
Edwina L. Rissland; Xiaoxi Xu
A Model for Personalized Web-Scale Case Base Maintenance
The growing use of case-based reasoning (CBR) systems on the Web has brought with it increased awareness of the Web-scale case base maintenance (CBM). While most existing CBM policies and approaches, which were designed for smaller case bases with sizes ...
Jingyu Sun; Xueli Yu; Ruizhi Wang; Ning Zhong
Fuzzy case-based reasoning for facial expression recognition
Fuzzy logic (FL) and case-based reasoning (CBR) are two well-known techniques for the implementation of intelligent classification systems. Each technique has its own advantages and drawbacks. FL, for example, provides an intuitive user interface, simplifies ... Keywords: Case-based reasoning, Fuzzy case-based reasoning, Fuzzy logic, Human computer interaction, Intelligent systems
Aasia Khanum; Muid Mufti; M. Younus Javed; M. Zubair Shafiq
2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and...
Suggested Improvement - - Transition scenario should include case studies Transition scenario should include case studies of local economies of local economies Include...
Learning adaptation knowledge to improve case-based reasoning
Case-Based Reasoning systems retrieve and reuse solutions for previously solved problems that have been encountered and remembered as cases. In some domains, particularly where the problem solving is a classification task, the retrieved solution can ... Keywords: Adaptation knowledge, Case-based reasoning, Introspective learning, Knowledge acquisition, Machine learning
Susan Craw; Nirmalie Wiratunga; Ray C. Rowe
An inquiry into the potential of scenario analysis for dealing with uncertainty in strategic environmental assessment in China
Strategic environmental assessment (SEA) inherently needs to address greater levels of uncertainty in the formulation and implementation processes of strategic decisions, compared with project environmental impact assessment. The range of uncertainties includes internal and external factors of the complex system that is concerned in the strategy. Scenario analysis is increasingly being used to cope with uncertainty in SEA. Following a brief introduction of scenarios and scenario analysis, this paper examines the rationale for scenario analysis in SEA in the context of China. The state of the art associated with scenario analysis applied to SEA in China was reviewed through four SEA case analyses. Lessons learned from these cases indicated the word 'scenario' appears to be abused and the scenario-based methods appear to be misused due to the lack of understanding of an uncertain future and scenario analysis. However, good experiences were also drawn on, regarding how to integrate scenario analysis into the SEA process in China, how to cope with driving forces including uncertainties, how to combine qualitative scenario storylines with quantitative impact predictions, and how to conduct assessments and propose recommendations based on scenarios. Additionally, the ways to improve the application of this tool in SEA were suggested. We concluded by calling for further methodological research on this issue and more practices.
Zhu Zhixi, E-mail: email@example.com; Bai, Hongtao, E-mail: firstname.lastname@example.com; Xu He, E-mail: firstname.lastname@example.com; Zhu Tan, E-mail: email@example.com
Combining Case-Based and Model-Based Reasoning for the Diagnosis of Complex Devices
A novel approach to integrating case-based reasoning with model-based diagnosis is presented. This approach, called Experience Aided Diagnosis (EAD), uses the model of the device and the results of diagnostic tests to index and match cases representing past ... Keywords: case-based reasoning, hybrid problem-solving methods, model-based diagnosis
M. P. Féret; J. I. Glasgow
WTI Crude Oil Price: Base Case and 95% Confidence Interval
U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
WTI Crude Oil Price: Base Case and 95% Confidence Interval. Sources: History: EIA; Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, December 2000. Projections
Process Engineering Division Texaco Gasifier IGCC Base Cases
Engineering Division Engineering Division Texaco Gasifier IGCC Base Cases PED-IGCC-98-001 July 1998 Latest Revision June 2000 PREFACE This report presents the results of an analysis of three Texaco Gasifier IGCC Base Cases. The analyses were performed by W. Shelton and J. Lyons of EG&G. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1. Process Descriptions 1.1 Texaco Gasifier 1.2 Air Separation Plant (ASU) 1.3 Gas Cooling/Heat Recovery/Hydrolysis/Gas Saturation (Case 1 and Case 2) 1.4 Cold Gas Cleanup Unit (CGCU) (Case 1 and Case 2) 1.5 Fine Particulate Removal/ Chloride Guard Bed - Case 3 1.6 Transport Desulfurization HGCU - Case 3 1.7 Sulfuric Acid Plant - Case 3 1.8 Gas Turbine 1.9 Steam Cycle 1.10 Power Production 2. Simulation Development 3. Cost of Electricity Analysis
The need for and use of socio-economic scenarios for climate change analysis: A new approach based on shared socio-economic pathways
A new set of socioeconomic scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) are described that provide a set of global narratives and socio-economic pathways to pair with climate model scenarios developed using the new Representative Concentration Pathways.
Kriegler, Elmar; O'Neill, Brian; Hallegatte, Stephane; Kram, Tom; Lempert, Rob; Moss, Richard H.; Wilbanks, Thomas
Safety evaluation of MHTGR licensing basis accident scenarios
The safety potential of the Modular High-Temperature Gas Reactor (MHTGR) was evaluated, based on the Preliminary Safety Information Document (PSID), as submitted by the US Department of Energy to the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission. The relevant reactor safety codes were extended for this purpose and applied to this new reactor concept, searching primarily for potential accident scenarios that might lead to fuel failures due to excessive core temperatures and/or to vessel damage, due to excessive vessel temperatures. The design basis accident scenario leading to the highest vessel temperatures is the depressurized core heatup scenario without any forced cooling and with decay heat rejection to the passive Reactor Cavity Cooling System (RCCS). This scenario was evaluated, including numerous parametric variations of input parameters, like material properties and decay heat. It was found that significant safety margins exist, but that high confidence levels in the core effective thermal conductivity, the reactor vessel and RCCS thermal emissivities and the decay heat function are required to maintain this safety margin. Severe accident extensions of this depressurized core heatup scenario included the cases of complete RCCS failure, cases of massive air ingress, core heatup without scram and cases of degraded RCCS performance due to absorbing gases in the reactor cavity. Except for no-scram scenarios extending beyond 100 hr, the fuel never reached the limiting temperature of 1600/degree/C, below which measurable fuel failures are not expected. In some of the scenarios, excessive vessel and concrete temperatures could lead to investment losses but are not expected to lead to any source term beyond that from the circulating inventory. 19 refs., 56 figs., 11 tabs.
Kroeger, P.G.
Business Case for CNG in Municipal Fleets (Presentation)
Presentation about compressed natural gas in municipal fleets, assessing investment profitability, the VICE model, base-case scenarios, and pressing questions for fleet owners.
Johnson, C.
Air Pollution Project: Scenario
Project Summary HELP Index Summary Scenario Internet Links Student Pages SubjectContent Area: ScienceChemistry, Environment - Air Pollution Target Audience: High school chemistry...
high penetrations of energy efficiency measures and renewable energy generation (both rooftop solar efficiency, renewable generation, solar photo voltaic, greenhouse gases, power generation, scenario analysis
Battery Standard Scenario
Scenario: Fast Tracking a Battery Standard. ... with developing a new standard specifying quality controls for the development of batteries used in ...
Load flow analysis: Base cases, data, diagrams, and results
This report describes how an electric utility system is modeled by using load flow techniques to establish a validated power flow case suitable for simulating and evaluating alternative system scenarios. Details of the load flow model are supported by additional technical and descriptive information intended to correlate modeled electrical system parameters with the corresponding physical equipment that makes up the system. Pictures and technical specifications of system equipment from the utility, public, or vendor are provided to support this association for many system components. The report summarizes the load flow model construction, simulation, and validation and describes the general capabilities of an information query system designed to access load flow parameters and other electrical system information.
Portante, E.C.; Kavicky, J.A.; VanKuiken, J.C.; Peerenboom, J.P.
Search and Adaptation in a Fuzzy Object Oriented Case Base
In this paper we propose to represent a case using an object oriented model that enables the description of imprecise knowledge using possibility distributions. The proposed search process is based on this modeling and a fuzzy similarity measure is defined. ...
Magali Ruet; Laurent Geneste
Applying Case-Based Reasoning to Mechanical Bearing Design
Case-Based Reasoning (CBR) provides a promising methodology for solving many complex engineering design problems. CBR is based on the idea that past problem-solving experiences can be reused and learned from in solving new problems. This paper presents an overview of a CBR design system to assist human engineers in performing mechanical bearing design. It retrieves previously designed cases from a case-base and uses adaptation techniques to adapt them to satisfy the current problem requirements. Our approach combines parametric adaptations and constraint satisfaction adaptations. The technique of parametric adaptation considers not only parameter substitution, but also the interrelationships between the problem definition and its solution. The technique of constraint satisfaction adaptation provides a method to globally check the design requirements to assess case adaptability. Currently, our system has been tested in the rolling bearing domain.
Xiaoli Qin; William C. Regli
The benefits of the Department of Energy's research and development (R&D) efforts have historically been estimated under business-as-usual market and policy conditions. In recognition of the insurance value of R&D, however, the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) and the Office of Fossil Energy (FE) have been exploring options for evaluating the benefits of their R&D programs under an array of alternative futures. More specifically, an FE-EERE Scenarios Working Group (the Working Group) has proposed to EERE and FE staff the application of an initial set of three scenarios for use in the Working Group's upcoming analyses: (1) a Reference Case Scenario, (2) a High Fuel Price Scenario, which includes heightened natural gas and oil prices, and (3) a Carbon Cap-and-Trade Scenario. The immediate goal is to use these scenarios to conduct a pilot analysis of the benefits of EERE and FE R&D efforts. In this report, the two alternative scenarios being considered by EERE and FE staff--carbon cap-and-trade and high fuel prices--are compared to other scenarios used by energy analysts and utility planners. The report also briefly evaluates the past accuracy of fossil fuel price forecasts. We find that the natural gas prices through 2025 proposed in the FE-EERE Scenarios Working Group's High Fuel Price Scenario appear to be reasonable based on current natural gas prices and other externally generated gas price forecasts and scenarios. If anything, an even more extreme gas price scenario might be considered. The price escalation from 2025 to 2050 within the proposed High Fuel Price Scenario is harder to evaluate, primarily because few existing forecasts or scenarios extend beyond 2025, but, at first blush, it also appears reasonable. Similarly, we find that the oil prices originally proposed by the Working Group in the High Fuel Price Scenario appear to be reasonable, if not conservative, based on: (1) the current forward market for oil, (2) current oil prices, (3) externally generated oil price forecasts, and (4) the historical difficulty in accurately forecasting oil prices. Overall, a spread between the FE-EERE High Oil Price and Reference scenarios of well over $8/bbl is supported by the literature. We conclude that a wide range of carbon regulation scenarios are possible, especially within the time frame considered by EERE and FE (through 2050). The Working Group's Carbon Cap-and-Trade Scenario is found to be less aggressive than many Kyoto-style targets that have been analyzed, and similar in magnitude to the proposed Climate Stewardship Act. The proposed scenario is more aggressive than some other scenarios found in the literature, however, and ignores carbon banking and offsets and does not allow nuclear power to expand. We are therefore somewhat concerned that the stringency of the proposed carbon regulation scenario in the 2010 to 2025 period will lead to a particularly high estimated cost of carbon reduction. As described in more detail later, we encourage some flexibility in the Working Group's ultimate implementation of the Carbon Cap-and-Trade Scenario. We conclude by identifying additional scenarios that might be considered in future analyses, describing a concern with the proposed specification of the High Fuel Price Scenario, and highlighting the possible difficulty of implementing extreme scenarios with current energy modeling tools.
Synthesizing hierarchical state machines from expressive scenario descriptions
There are many examples in the literature of algorithms for synthesizing state machines from scenario-based models. The motivation for these is to automate the transition from scenario-based requirements to early behavioral design models. To date, however, ... Keywords: State machine synthesis, interaction overview diagrams, scenario-based requirements, software modeling
Jon Whittle; Praveen K. Jayaraman
WCOID-DG: An approach for case base maintenance based on Weighting, Clustering, Outliers, Internal Detection and Dbsan-Gmeans
The success of the Case Based Reasoning system depends on the quality of the case data and the speed of the retrieval process that can be costly in time, especially when the number of cases gets bulky. To guarantee the system@?s quality, maintaining ... Keywords: Case base maintenance, Case based reasoning, Density based clustering, Gaussian-Means clustering, Outliers detection
Abir Smiti, Zied Elouedi
ULCOS scenarios and economic modeling
Modeling activities and scenario building are at the heart of the economic analysis delivered by the ULCOS program. Two main objectives were followed in the framework of SP9. First the modeling team had to provide a set of coherent energy economic scenarios using POLES model. Second, the economic conditions for the emergence of the ULCOS technologies were analyzed. ULCOS contributes to the elaboration of contrasted scenarios that the steel industry could face in the long term. To aim at these objectives specific tools have been used: POLES model for the global energy system modeling and ISIM model for the steel sector based prospective ([1] Hidalgo, 2003). The most promising steel production technologies identified in ULCOS Phase 1 have been introduced into ISIM as generic technologies. ISIM was then integrated as a module into POLES modeling system. The main model outputs are the energy prices and mixes and the steel sector balances with a focus on the technology mix. Actually the climate policy scenarios developped in project allow making recommendations to the steel industry in terms of sustainable development but also in terms of business strategy.
Elie Bellevrat
Hybrid intelligent parameter estimation based on grey case-based reasoning for laminar cooling process
In this paper, a hybrid intelligent parameter estimation algorithm is proposed for predicting the strip temperature during laminar cooling process. The algorithm combines a hybrid genetic algorithm (HGA) with grey case-based reasoning (GCBR) in order ... Keywords: Grey case-based reasoning, Hybrid genetic algorithm, Laminar cooling process, Parameter estimation
Guishan Xing; Jinliang Ding; Tianyou Chai; Puya Afshar; Hong Wang
Combining rough set and case based reasoning for process conditions selection in camshaft grinding
Case Based Reasoning (CBR) is a novel paradigm that uses previous cases to solve new, unseen and different problems. However, redundant features may not only dramatically increase the case memory, but also make the case retrieval more time-consuming. ... Keywords: Camshaft grinding, Case based reasoning, Case evaluation, Case reclassify, Feature reduction, Genetic algorithm, Rough set
X. H. Zhang; Z. H. Deng; W. Liu; H. Cao
Entanglement cost in practical scenarios
We quantify the one-shot entanglement cost of an arbitrary bipartite state, that is the minimum number of singlets needed by two distant parties to create a single copy of the state up to a finite accuracy, using local operations and classical communication only. This analysis, in contrast to the traditional one, pertains to scenarios of practical relevance, in which resources are finite and transformations can only be achieved approximately. Moreover, it unveils a fundamental relation between two well-known entanglement measures, namely, the Schmidt number and the entanglement of formation. Using this relation, we are able to recover the usual expression of the entanglement cost as a special case.
Francesco Buscemi; Nilanjana Datta
A Case-Based Reasoning View of Automated Collaborative Filtering
From some perspectives Automated Collaborative Filtering (ACF) appears quite similar to Case-Based Reasoning (CBR). It works on data organised around users and assets that might be considered case descriptions. In addition, in some versions of ACF, much of the induction is deferred to run time -- in the lazy learning spirit of CBR. On the other hand, because of its lack of semantic descriptions it seems to be the antithesis of case-based reasoning -- a learning approach based on case representations. This paper analyses the characteristics shared by ACF and CBR, it highlights the differences between the two approaches and attempts to answer the question "When is it useful or valid to consider ACF as CBR?". We argue that a CBR perspective on ACF can only be useful if it offers insights into the ACF process and supports a transfer of techniques. In conclusion we present a case retrieval net model of ACF and show how it allows for enhancements to the basic ACF idea.
Conor Hayes; Padraig Cunningham; Barry Smyth
Scenario Scenario HELP Index Summary Scenario Internet Links Student Pages Oak Park and River Forest High School in Oak Park, IL, is a four-year (9-12) comprehensive high school with an enrollment of approximately 2800 students. The communities of Oak Park and River Forest are located just west of Chicago. Student backgrounds vary greatly socio-economically, ethnically (63% Caucasian, 28% African-American, 4% Hispanic, 4% Asian) and culturally. Average student standardized test scores are above the state and national averages. The chemistry class is a cross section of the lower 70% of the school community. Students in Ms. Bardeen's regular chemistry class, grades 10, 11 & 12 enter the computer lab, access the Internet on their computers, and begin to work with their teams on their current project. Students are busy talking with
Environmental assessment of spatial plan policies through land use scenarios
This paper presents a method based on scenario analysis to compare the environmental effects of different spatial plan policies in a range of possible futures. The study aimed at contributing to overcome two limitations encountered in Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) for spatial planning: poor exploration of how the future might unfold, and poor consideration of alternative plan policies. Scenarios were developed through what-if functions and spatial modeling in a Geographical Information System (GIS), and consisted in maps that represent future land uses under different assumptions on key driving forces. The use of land use scenarios provided a representation of how the different policies will look like on the ground. This allowed gaining a better understanding of the policies' implications on the environment, which could be measured through a set of indicators. The research undertook a case-study approach by developing and assessing land use scenarios for the future growth of Caia, a strategically-located and fast-developing town in rural Mozambique. The effects of alternative spatial plan policies were assessed against a set of environmental performance indicators, including deforestation, loss of agricultural land, encroachment of flood-prone areas and wetlands and access to water sources. In this way, critical environmental effects related to the implementation of each policy were identified and discussed, suggesting possible strategies to address them. - Graphical abstract: Display Omitted Research Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The method contributes to two critical issues in SEA: exploration of the future and consideration of alternatives. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Future scenarios are used to test the environmental performance of different spatial plan policies in uncertainty conditions. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Spatially-explicit land use scenarios provide a representation of how different policies will look like on the ground.
Geneletti, Davide, E-mail: firstname.lastname@example.com
Improved Efficiency of Oil Well Drilling through Case Based Reasoning
A system that applies a method of knowledge-intensive case-based reasoning, for repair and prevention of unwanted events in the domain of offshore oil well drilling, has been developed in cooperation with an oil company. From several reoccurring problems during oil well drilling the problem of "lost circulation", i.e. loss of circulating drilling fluid into the geological formation, was picked out as a pilot problem. An extensive general knowledge model was developed for the domain of oil well drilling. About fifty different cases were created on the basis of information from one North Sea operator. When the completed CBR-system was tested against a new case, five cases with descending similarity were selected by the tool. In an informal evaluation, the two best fitting cases proved to give the operator valuable advise on how to go about solving the new case. Introduction Drilling of oil wells is an expensive operation, costing around 150 000 US $ pr. day, and any loss of time caused...
Paal Skalle; Jostein Sveen; Agnar Aamodt
Case-Based Design Support: A Case Study in Architectural Design
Archie, a small computer-based library of architectural design cases, is described. Archie helps architects in the high-level task of conceptual design as opposed to low-level tasks such as drawing and drafting, numerical calculations, and constraint ...
Michael Pearce; Ashok K. Goel; Janet L. Kolodner; Craig Zimring; Lucas Sentosa; Richard Billington
Case Study - Hill Air Force Base, Utah | Department of Energy
Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site
Hill Air Force Base, Utah Hill Air Force Base, Utah Case Study - Hill Air Force Base, Utah October 7, 2013 - 2:00pm Addthis Overview Energy savings performance contracting at Hill Air Force Base generated much interest during a recent training session on energy management that downlinked 12 Department of Defense sites. Energy systems in 940 buildings on the Base will be upgraded under an 18-year ESPC between the Government and the energy service company, CES/Way. Improvements are distributed over five task orders that will be completed in five years, with CES/Way providing $2.5 million in up-front costs for the first two task orders. Utah Power & Light will provide $8 million in rebates to help cover the contractor's initial investment, maintenance services, and interest costs.
Developing Guidance and Tool Support for Rationale-based Use Case Specification
Technology System), a prototype augmented reality application for nuclear powerplant technicians. Three weeks (Fig. 4.). The students were provided with a nuclear powerplant maintenance scenario illustrating case step has a number, and actor and system steps have to alternate. This way, we hope to avoid
Bruegge, Bernd
Tools for designing and delivering multiple-perspective scenarios
This paper describes two prototype tools developed as part of a design-based investigation into the use of multiple-perspective scenarios. A multiple-perspective scenario is one constructed as many different narratives about the same events, with the ... Keywords: XML, knowledge management, scenarios, training, video-conferencing
Wally Smith; Daghan Acay; Ramon Fano; Gideon Ratner
Sight and Sound - Scenario
Scenario Scenario Summary Student Pages Internet Links Index Introduction Development/Rationale for the Year-End Project Teacher Preparation for the Year-End Project The Sight and Sound Project - an Anecdotal Account Introduction to and Selection of Year-End Projects Conducting the Literature Search Project Proposal Conducting the Experiments Wrapping up with the Reports and Presentations Introduction: Mr. Tom Henderson is part of a talented science staff at Glenbrook South High School. Glenbrook South High School (GBS) is set in an educationally supportive and affluent community. The physics staff work in teams teaching physics to over 80 percent of the student population and are constantly looking for ways to use technology to empower students with the ability to apply learned concepts of physics to their lives. With this goal in mind,
Workforce management strategies in a disaster scenario.
A model of the repair operations of the voice telecommunications network is used to study labor management strategies under a disaster scenario where the workforce is overwhelmed. The model incorporates overtime and fatigue functions and optimizes the deployment of the workforce based on the cost of the recovery and the time it takes to recover. The analysis shows that the current practices employed in workforce management in a disaster scenario are not optimal and more strategic deployment of that workforce is beneficial.
Kelic, Andjelka; Turk, Adam L.
Case-based reasoning ensemble and business application: A computational approach from multiple case representations driven by randomness
Case-based reasoning (CBR) holds the unique capability of making predictions as well as suggestions to corporate executives and organizational decision-makers. How to improve its predictive performance is critical. This research aims to explore an ensemble ... Keywords: Business failure prediction, Case-based reasoning ensemble, Multiple case representations
Hui Li; Jie Sun
Igneous Event Scenario
Previous risk analyses by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) indicate that a future igneous event at Yucca Mountain could lead to significant increases in calculated probability-weighted, mean-annual dose rates. A technical report is being prepared by EPRI that examines the various steps and sub-processes inherent in such a scenario for a repository at Yucca Mountain. Specific steps that are being evaluated include: • determination of the probability...
A Case Based System for Oil and Gas Well Design with Risk Assessment
A case base system for a complex problem like oil field design needs to be richer than the usual case based reasoning system. Genesis, the system described in this paper contains large heterogeneous cases with metalevel knowledge. A multi-level indexing ... Keywords: case based systems, information extraction, knowledge sharing, oil well design, risk assessment
Simon Kravis; Rosemary Irrgang
Topical report on release scenario analysis of long-term management of high-level defense waste at the Hanford Site
Potential release scenarios for the defense high-level waste (HLW) on the Hanford Site are presented. Presented in this report are the three components necessary for evaluating the various alternatives under consideration for long-term management of Hanford defense HLW: identification of scenarios and events which might directly or indirectly disrupt radionuclide containment barriers; geotransport calculations of waste migration through the site media; and consequence (dose) analyses based on groundwater and air pathways calculations. The scenarios described in this report provide the necessary parameters for radionuclide transport and consequence analysis. Scenarios are categorized as either bounding or nonbounding. Bounding scenarios consider worst case or what if situations where an actual and significant release of waste material to the environment would happen if the scenario were to occur. Bounding scenarios include both near-term and long-term scenarios. Near-term scenarios are events which occur at 100 years from 1990. Long term scenarios are potential events considered to occur at 1000 and 10,000 years from 1990. Nonbounding scenarios consider events which result in insignificant releases or no release at all to the environment. Three release mechanisms are described in this report: (1) direct exposure of waste to the biosphere by a defined sequence of events (scenario) such as human intrusion by drilling; (2) radionuclides contacting an unconfined aquifer through downward percolation of groundwater or a rising water table; and (3) cataclysmic or explosive release of radionuclides by such mechanisms as meteorite impact, fire and explosion, criticality, or seismic events. Scenarios in this report present ways in which these release mechanisms could occur at a waste management facility. The scenarios are applied to the two in-tank waste management alternatives: in-situ disposal and continued present action.
Wallace, R.W.; Landstrom, D.K.; Blair, S.C.; Howes, B.W.; Robkin, M.A.; Benson, G.L.; Reisenauer, A.E.; Walters, W.H.; Zimmerman, M.G.
Technical assessment of community solar future scenarios
The Kent Solar Project goal is to develop energy future scenarios for the community based upon the input of a cross-section of the population. It has been primarily a non-technical development in an attempt to gain community commitment. Social/political/economic issues have been identified as the key obstacles in fulfilling the future scenarios. To communicate the feasibility of solar energy in Kent, Ohio an analysis of the economic potential for solar energy was developed. The Solar Project calls for 25 per cent reduction of present fossil fuel quantities in 1990, achievable by conservation measures, and a 50 per cent reduction in 2000, which necessitates solar technology implementation. The technical analysis is demonstrating the future scenarios to be both feasible and economically wise. The technical assessment requires an in-depth data base of existing comsumption which is not easily identifiable.
Kremers, J.A.
Unifying weighting and case reduction methods based on rough sets to improve retrieval
Case-Based Reasoning systems usually retrieve cases using a similarity function based on K-NN or some derivatives. These functions are sensitive to irrelevant or noisy features. Weighting methods are used to extract the most important information ...
Maria Salamó; Elisabet Golobardes
Case study data base companion report 3 to simulation of geothermal subsidence (LBL-10571)
The data base developed for selection and evaluation of geothermal subsidence case studies is presented. Data from this data base were used in case studies of Wairakei, The Geysers, and Austin Bayou Prospect (Report LBL 10571).
Miller, I.; Dershowitz, W.; Jones, K.; Myer, L.; Roman, K.; Schauer, M.
Case study: Improving debt collection processes using rule-based decision engines: A case study of Capital One
This case assesses the plethora of issues related to rule-based decision engine technology, and in particular, its role in complex and dynamic organizational processes. This paper argues rule-based engines can effectively be implemented for good organizational ... Keywords: Capital One, Debt collection, Project Edison, Rule-based decision, Rule-based engine
Amita Goyal Chin; Hiren Kotak
Hydrogen and FCV Implementation Scenarios, 2010 - 2025
Scenario 1 Vehicle Transition and Deployment Scenario 2 Vehicle Transition and Deployment Scenario 3 Vehicle Transition and Deployment SUMMARY In response to the National Research...
Student Summer Project Speci cation -Session 2002 Case-Based Reasoning for Smart Houses
Techniques #15; Case-Based Reasoning #15; Machine Learning #15; Weka using Java or Recall shell using TCL/TK
Wiratunga, Nirmalie
CBM-Gen+: An Algorithm for Reducing Case Base Inconsistencies in Hierarchical and Incomplete Domains
formulated case base maintenance (CBM) policies for reducing the size of the case base without losingCBM-Gen+: An Algorithm for Reducing Case Base Inconsistencies in Hierarchical and Incomplete Lehigh University Bethlehem, PA 18015,USA {kex2,hem4}@ lehigh.edu Abstract. We propose an algorithm, CBM
Muñoz-Avila, Héctor
Federal Energy Management Program: Case Study - Hill Air Force Base, Utah
Case Study - Hill Case Study - Hill Air Force Base, Utah to someone by E-mail Share Federal Energy Management Program: Case Study - Hill Air Force Base, Utah on Facebook Tweet about Federal Energy Management Program: Case Study - Hill Air Force Base, Utah on Twitter Bookmark Federal Energy Management Program: Case Study - Hill Air Force Base, Utah on Google Bookmark Federal Energy Management Program: Case Study - Hill Air Force Base, Utah on Delicious Rank Federal Energy Management Program: Case Study - Hill Air Force Base, Utah on Digg Find More places to share Federal Energy Management Program: Case Study - Hill Air Force Base, Utah on AddThis.com... Energy Savings Performance Contracts Assistance & Contacts Resources Laws & Regulations Energy Service Companies Awarded Projects
Blackbody radiation in a nonextensive scenario
An exact analysis of the N-dimensional blackbody radiation process in a nonextensive ŕ la Tsallis scenario is performed for values of the nonextensive's index in the range (0 < q < 1). The recently advanced "Optimal Lagrange Multipliers " (OLM) technique has been employed. The results are consistent with those of the extensive, q = 1 case. The generalization of the celebrated laws of Planck, Stefan-Boltzmann, and Wien are investigated.
S. Martínez; F. Pennini; A. Plastino; C. Tessone
Agent-Based vs. Equation-based Epidemiological Models:A Model Selection Case Study
This paper is motivated by the need to design model validation strategies for epidemiological disease-spread models. We consider both agent-based and equation-based models of pandemic disease spread and study the nuances and complexities one has to consider from the perspective of model validation. For this purpose, we instantiate an equation based model and an agent based model of the 1918 Spanish flu and we leverage data published in the literature for our case- study. We present our observations from the perspective of each implementation and discuss the application of model-selection criteria to compare the risk in choosing one modeling paradigm to another. We conclude with a discussion of our experience and document future ideas for a model validation framework.
Sukumar, Sreenivas R [ORNL; Nutaro, James J [ORNL
Risk Mathematics and Quantum Games on Quantum Risk Structures - A Nuclear War Scenario Game
Quantum game theory is combined with risk mathematics' formalism to provide an approach to evolutionary scenario analysis. The formalism is addressed in its general form and is then applied to an extreme risks modelling case, to model a coevolving dynamical web of systemic situations representing the evolution of the regional tensions between two countries with nuclear weapons. The model's results are addressed regarding the potential for regional nuclear conflict to take place, and how evolutionary scenario analysis may contribute to nuclear war threat assessment and dynamical risk analysis. A final discussion is provided in what regards risk mathematics based on the evolutionary approach to risk assessement resulting from the combination of quantum game theory, morphic web representations and scenario analysis.
Carlos Pedro Gonçalves
A scenario-driven role engineering process for functional RBAC roles
In this paper we present a novel scenario-driven role engineering process for RBAC roles. The scenario concept is of central significance for the presented approach. Due to the strong human factor in role engineering scenarios are a good means to drive ... Keywords: role engineering, role-based access control, scenarios
Gustaf Neumann; Mark Strembeck
Biofuel and Bioenergy implementation scenarios
Biofuel and Bioenergy implementation scenarios Final report of VIEWLS WP5, modelling studies #12;Biofuel and Bioenergy implementation scenarios Final report of VIEWLS WP5, modelling studies By André of this project are to provide structured and clear data on the availability and performance of biofuels
Sensitivity of North American agriculture to ENSO-based climate scenarios and their socio-economic consequences: Modeling in an integrated assessment framework
A group of Canadian, US and Mexican natural resource specialists, organized by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) under its North American Energy, Environment and Economy (NA3E) Program, has applied a simulation modeling approach to estimating the impact of ENSO-driven climatic variations on the productivity of major crops grown in the three countries. Methodological development is described and results of the simulations presented in this report. EPIC (the Erosion Productivity Impact Calculator) was the agro-ecosystem model selected-for this study. EPIC uses a daily time step to simulate crop growth and yield, water use, runoff and soil erosion among other variables. The model was applied to a set of so-called representative farms parameterized through a specially-assembled Geographic Information System (GIS) to reflect the soils, topography, crop management and weather typical of the regions represented. Fifty one representative farms were developed for Canada, 66 for the US and 23 for Mexico. El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) scenarios for the EPIC simulations were created using the historic record of sea-surface temperature (SST) prevailing in the eastern tropical Pacific for the period October 1--September 30. Each year between 1960 and 1989 was thus assigned to an ENSO category or state. The ENSO states were defined as El Nino (EN, SST warmer than the long-term mean), Strong El Nino (SEN, much warmer), El Viejo (EV, cooler) and Neutral (within {+-}0.5 C of the long-term mean). Monthly means of temperature and precipitation were then calculated at each farm for the period 1960--1989 and the differences (or anomalies) between the means in Neutral years and EN, SEN and EV years determined. The average monthly anomalies for each ENSO state were then used to create new monthly statistics for each farm and ENSO-state combination. The adjusted monthly statistics characteristic of each ENSO state were then used to drive a stochastic-weather simulator that provided 30 years of daily-weather data needed to run EPIC. Maps and tables of the climate anomalies by farm show climatic conditions that differ considerably by region, season and ENSO state.
Rosenberg, N.J.; Izaurralde, R.C.; Brown, R.A.; Sands, R.D. [Pacific Northwest National Lab., Richland, WA (United States); Legler, D. [Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL (United States). Center for Ocean Atmosphere Prediction Studies; Srinivasan, R. [Texas A and M Univ., College Station, TX (United States). Blacklands Research Center; Tiscareno-Lopez, M.
Wildlife Trade: Scenario
real-life situations. The real-life situations. The teacher asks students to spend a few minutes thinking about and jotting down responses in their journals to the question, "When you have gone somewhere on vacation, what kinds of things have you brought back?" She then asks the students to turn to a partner and discuss their responses. Each pair summarizes and shares their comments with the entire group. Several answers were given: pictures, postcards, souvenirs, etc. The project on wildlife trade is expected to be a multiweek inquiry. The goal is to investigate the problem, as defined by the students, using a variety of tools. Students are assigned to base groups or teams, which are frequently reorganized based on interest, but all students return to their base group to share information and help each other fill in the information
real life situations. The real life situations. The teacher asks students to spend a few minutes thinking about and jotting down responses in their journals to the question, "When you have gone somewhere on vacation, what kinds of things have you brought back?" She then asks the students to turn to a partner and discuss their responses. Each pair summarizes and shares their comments with the entire group. Several answers were given: pictures, postcards, souvenirs, etc. The project on wildlife trade is expected to be a multiweek inquiry. The goal is to investigate the problem, as defined by the students, using a variety of tools. Students are assigned to base groups or teams, which are frequently reorganized based on interest, but all students return to their base group to share information and help each other fill in the information
Scenarios for a Clean Energy Future Industry 5.1
In this chapter we present scenarios for future industrial energy use, based on different assumptions for U.S. energy policies. We start with a reference scenario which is derived from the AEO99 (U.S. DOE, EIA, 1998a of primary energy, accounting for 37% of the primary energy consumed in the U.S. that year. The industrial
Mobile IPv6 bootstrapping in split scenario
This document specifies an Internet standards track protocol for the Internet community, and requests discussion and suggestions for improvements. Please refer to the current edition of the "Internet Official Protocol Standards " (STD 1) for the standardization state and status of this protocol. Distribution of this memo is unlimited. A Mobile IPv6 node requires a Home Agent address, a home address, and IPsec security associations with its Home Agent before it can start utilizing Mobile IPv6 service. RFC 3775 requires that some or all of these are statically configured. This document defines how a Mobile IPv6 node can bootstrap this information from non-topological information and security credentials pre-configured on the Mobile Node. The solution defined in this document solves the split scenario described in the Mobile IPv6 bootstrapping problem statement in RFC 4640. The split scenario refers to the case where the Mobile
G. Giaretta; J. Kempf; V. Devarapalli
Optimisation-based scheduling: A discrete manufacturing case study
This work presents the development and implementation of a production scheduling system for an electrical appliance manufacturer. Based on recent advances in optimisation-based scheduling approaches, two different software architectures based on two ... Keywords: Discrete manufacturing, Electrical appliances, Mixed-integer linear programming, Optimization-based scheduling
Michael C. Georgiadis; Aaron A. Levis; Panagiotis Tsiakis; Ioannis Sanidiotis; Constantinos C. Pantelides; Lazaros G. Papageorgiou
Rooftop Photovoltaics Market Penetration Scenarios
The goal of this study was to model the market penetration of rooftop photovoltaics (PV) in the United States under a variety of scenarios, on a state-by-state basis, from 2007 to 2015.
Paidipati, J.; Frantzis, L.; Sawyer, H.; Kurrasch, A.
Well casing-based geophysical sensor apparatus, system and method
DOE Patents (OSTI)
A geophysical sensor apparatus, system, and method for use in, for example, oil well operations, and in particular using a network of sensors emplaced along and outside oil well casings to monitor critical parameters in an oil reservoir and provide geophysical data remote from the wells. Centralizers are affixed to the well casings and the sensors are located in the protective spheres afforded by the centralizers to keep from being damaged during casing emplacement. In this manner, geophysical data may be detected of a sub-surface volume, e.g. an oil reservoir, and transmitted for analysis. Preferably, data from multiple sensor types, such as ERT and seismic data are combined to provide real time knowledge of the reservoir and processes such as primary and secondary oil recovery.
Daily, William D. (Livermore, CA)
Baseline scenario(s) for muon collider proton driver
This paper gives an overview of the various muon collider scenarios and the requirements they put on the Proton Driver. The required proton power is about 4-6MW in all the scenarios, but the bunch repetition rate varies between 12 and 65Hz. Since none of the muon collider scenarios have been simulated end-to-end, it would be advisable to plan for an upgrade path to around 10MW. Although the proton driver energy is flexible, cost arguments seems to favor a relatively low energy. In particular, at Fermilab 8GeV seems most attractive, partly due to the possibility of reusing the three existing fixed energy storage rings for bunch manipulations.
Jansson, Andreas; /Fermilab
Complexity of event structure in IE scenarios
This paper presents new Information Extraction scenarios which are linguistically and structurally more challenging than the traditional MUC scenarios. Traditional views on event structure and template design are not adequate for the more complex scenarios.The ...
Silja Huttunen; Roman Yangarber; Ralph Grishman
DOE Hydrogen and Fuel Cells Program: 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis...
Scenario Analysis Printable Version 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure A transition from the current U.S. energy system to one based on...
A scenario generation tool for DDF simulation testbeds
An interactive tool has been developed for visualizing and creating scaled battlefield based scenarios for use in a simulation testbed to develop and test distributed data fusion and ad-hoc networking algorithms. This paper discuses the design requirements ...
G. Srimathveeravalli; N. Subramanian; T. Kesavadas
Energy Scenarios for East Asia: 2005-2025
We describe several scenarios for economic development and energy use in East Asia based on the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, a computable general equilibrium model of the world economy. Historic ...
Paltsev, Sergey
A New Global Set of Downscaled Temperature Scenarios
A new set of empirical–statistical downscaled seasonal mean temperature scenarios is presented for locations spread across all continents. These results are based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) simulations, the ...
Rasmus E. Benestad
Two case studies in grammar-based test generation
Grammar-based test generation (GBTG) has seen extensive study and practical use since the 1970s. GBTG was introduced to generate source code for testing compilers from context-free grammars specifying language syntax. More recently, GBTG has been applied ... Keywords: Automated testing, Covering array, Grammar-based test generation, Really Simple Syndication (RSS), TCP, eXtended Markup Language (XML)
Daniel Hoffman; Hong-Yi Wang; Mitch Chang; David Ly-Gagnon; Lewis Sobotkiewicz; Paul Strooper
Paraconsistent Case-Based Reasoning Applied to a Restoration of Electrical Power Substations
This paper presents a connection of two techniques applied in Artificial Intelligence to solve problems of restoration of electrical power substations. The techniques are: Case-based Reasoning --- CBR and the Four-Valued Annotated Paraconsistent Logic ... Keywords: CBR, Case-based Reasoning, Decision Support System, Intelligent System, Paraconsistent Logic, Restoration of Electrical Power Substations
Helga Gonzaga Martins; Germano Lambert-Torres; Luiz Eduardo Borges Da Silva; Claudio Inácio Almeida Costa; Maurilio Pereira Coutinho
Case-based Reasoning Enabling Database Mining for Cryo-Preserving Algae Applications
Case-based Reasoning's (CBR) origins were stimulated by a desire to understand how people remember information and are in turn reminded of information, and that subsequently it was recognized that people commonly solve problems by remembering how they ... Keywords: Case-based Reasoning, algal, cryopreservation, COBRA, CBR
Jun Wang; Huiqin Ren
... Impact Analysis Threat Actor Analysis For each scenario Aim: Select scenarios that could have a catastrophic impact on the organisation Page 23. ...
Abrupt Climate Change Scenario Technologies
Abrupt Climate Change Scenario Technologies Abrupt Climate Change Scenario Technologies Speaker(s): Tina Kaarsberg Date: April 27, 2006 - 12:00pm Location: Bldg. 90 Seminar Host/Point of Contact: Jayant Sathaye This talk examines the potential for several types of technologies that hitherto have not been a focus of U.S. climate technology planning. It was inspired by the latest climate science data and modeling which suggest that an abrupt warming (+10oF in 10 years), is an increasingly plausible scenario. The technologies described in the session rapidly reduce the risk of climate change and increase our ability to respond quickly. All of the technologies also have other public benefits. (Summary follows): For more information about this seminar, please contact: JoAnne Lambert 510.486.4835, or send e-mail to email@example.com
Deployment Effects of Marine Renewable Energy Technologies: Wave Energy Scenarios
Given proper care in siting, design, deployment, operation and maintenance, wave energy conversion could become one of the more environmentally benign sources of electricity generation. In order to accelerate the adoption of these emerging hydrokinetic and marine energy technologies, navigational and environmental concerns must be identified and addressed. All developing hydrokinetic projects involve a wide variety of stakeholders. One of the key issues that site developers face as they engage with this range of stakeholders is that, due to a lack of technical certainty, many of the possible conflicts (e.g., shipping and fishing) and environmental issues are not well-understood,. In September 2008, re vision consulting, LLC was selected by the Department of Energy (DoE) to apply a scenario-based assessment to the emerging hydrokinetic technology sector in order to evaluate the potential impact of these technologies on the marine environment and navigation constraints. The project's scope of work includes the establishment of baseline scenarios for wave and tidal power conversion at potential future deployment sites. The scenarios capture variations in technical approaches and deployment scales to properly identify and characterize environmental effects and navigational effects. The goal of the project is to provide all stakeholders with an improved understanding of the potential range of technical attributes and potential effects of these emerging technologies and focus all stakeholders on the critical issues that need to be addressed. By identifying and addressing navigational and environmental concerns in the early stages of the industry's development, serious mistakes that could potentially derail industry-wide development can be avoided. This groundwork will also help in streamlining siting and associated permitting processes, which are considered key hurdles for the industry's development in the U.S. today. Re vision is coordinating its efforts with two other project teams funded by DoE which are focused on regulatory issues (Pacific Energy Ventures) and navigational issues (PCCI). The results of this study are structured into three reports: (1) Wave power scenario description (2) Tidal power scenario description (3) Framework for Identifying Key Environmental Concerns This is the first report in the sequence and describes the results of conceptual feasibility studies of wave power plants deployed in Humboldt County, California and Oahu, Hawaii. These two sites contain many of the same competing stakeholder interactions identified at other wave power sites in the U.S. and serve as representative case studies. Wave power remains at an early stage of development. As such, a wide range of different technologies are being pursued by different manufacturers. In order to properly characterize potential effects, it is useful to characterize the range of technologies that could be deployed at the site of interest. An industry survey informed the process of selecting representative wave power devices. The selection criteria requires that devices are at an advanced stage of development to reduce technical uncertainties, and that enough data are available from the manufacturers to inform the conceptual design process of this study. Further, an attempt is made to cover the range of different technologies under development to capture variations in potential environmental effects. Table 1 summarizes the selected wave power technologies. A number of other developers are also at an advanced stage of development, but are not directly mentioned here. Many environmental effects will largely scale with the size of the wave power plant. In many cases, the effects of a single device may not be measurable, while larger scale device arrays may have cumulative impacts that differ significantly from smaller scale deployments. In order to characterize these effects, scenarios are established at three deployment scales which nominally represent (1) a small pilot deployment, (2) a small commercial deployment, and (3) a large commercial sc
Mirko Previsic
Supply chain trust diagnosis (SCTD) using inductive case-based reasoning ensemble (ICBRE): The case of general competence trust diagnosis
General competence trust among supply chain partners, referring to the trust that a partner holds the general ability of fulfilling contracts, is a critical factor to ensure effective cooperation in a supply chain, especially in the current financial ... Keywords: General competence trust, Inductive case-based reasoning ensemble (ICBRE), Supply chain trust diagnosis (SCTD) service
Hui Li; Jie Sun; Jian Wu; Xian-Jun Wu
Laboratory, firstname.lastname@example.com 7 May 2012 Solar reflective "cool" roofs save energy, money, and CO 2 when applied to air-conditioned buildings; improve comfort when applied to...
GIS-Based Infrastructure Hydrogen Scenario Meeting
and has 50% more people. #12;1500 kg/day SMR Footprint Steam Methane Reformer Storage Intensifier 31,000ft2 lot #12;Steam Methane Reforming · 1500 kg/day SMR footprint could be a problem at some
Organisational scenarios and legacy systems
A legacy system is made up of technical components and social factors (such as software, people, skills, business processes) which no longer meet the needs of the business environment. The study of legacy systems has tended to be biased towards a software ... Keywords: Business process, Legacy system, Scenario, Software
Carole Brooke; Magnus Ramage
Usability evaluation of web-based GIS: case study
Dependency of the majority of mankind activities on information and communication technologies in general and on geographic information is increasing rapidly. This is one of the reasons why usability of specialized software tools (GIS) belongs today ... Keywords: computer-human interaction, usability, web-based GIS
Jitka Komarkova; Kamil Jakoubek; Miloslav Hub
A case study: demands on component-based development
Building software systems with reusable components brings many advantages. The development becomes more efficient, the realibility of the products is enhanced, and the maintenance requirement is significantly reduced. Designing, developing and maintaining ... Keywords: architecture, component-based development, development environment, reuse, standard components
Ivica Crnkovic; Magnus Larsson
Time parallelization of advanced operation scenario simulations of ITER plasma
This work demonstrates that simulations of advanced burning plasma operation scenarios can be successfully parallelized in time using the parareal algorithm. CORSICA - an advanced operation scenario code for tokamak plasmas is used as a test case. This is a unique application since the parareal algorithm has so far been applied to relatively much simpler systems except for the case of turbulence. In the present application, a computational gain of an order of magnitude has been achieved which is extremely promising. A successful implementation of the Parareal algorithm to codes like CORSICA ushers in the possibility of time efficient simulations of ITER plasmas.
Samaddar, D. [ITER Organization, Saint Paul Lez Durance, France; Casper, T. A. [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL); Kim, S. H. [ITER Organization, Saint Paul Lez Durance, France; Berry, Lee A [ORNL; Elwasif, Wael R [ORNL; Batchelor, Donald B [ORNL; Houlberg, Wayne A [ORNL
Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicle Penetration Scenarios
This report examines the economic drivers, technology constraints, and market potential for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) in the U.S. A PHEV is a hybrid vehicle with batteries that can be recharged by connecting to the grid and an internal combustion engine that can be activated when batteries need recharging. The report presents and examines a series of PHEV market penetration scenarios. Based on input received from technical experts and industry representative contacted for this report and data obtained through a literature review, annual market penetration rates for PHEVs are presented from 2013 through 2045 for three scenarios. Each scenario is examined and implications for PHEV development are explored.
Balducci, Patrick J.
Ontology-supported case-based reasoning approach for intelligent m-Government emergency response services
There is a critical need to develop a mobile-based emergency response system (MERS) to help reduce risks in emergency situations. Existing systems only provide short message service (SMS) notifications, and the decision support is weak, especially in ... Keywords: Case-based reasoning, Emergency response systems, Information extraction, Mobile-based systems, Ontology, m-Government
Khaled Amailef, Jie Lu
The Role of Biomass Based Cogeneration: Case of an Italian Province
The Role of Biomass Based Cogeneration: Case of an Italian Province Speaker(s): Giuseppe Muliere Date: June 23, 2009 - 12:30pm Location: 90-3122 The aim of this work is to analyze...
FUTURA: Hybrid System for Electric Load Forecasting by Using Case-Based Reasoning and Expert System
The results of combining a numeric extrapolation of data with the methodology of case-based reasoning and expert systems in order to improve the electric load forecasting are presented in this contribution. Registers of power consumption are stored as ...
Raúl Vilcahuamán; Joaquim Meléndez; Josep Lluis de la Rosa
MAUT approach for selecting a proper decommissioning scenario
When dismantling scenarios are selected, not only the quantitatively calculated results but also the qualitatively estimated results should be considered with a logical and systematic process. In this case, the MAUT (Multi-Attribute Utility Theory) is widely used for the quantification of subjective judgments in various fields of a decision making. This study focuses on the introduction and application of the MAUT method for the selection of decommissioning scenarios. To evaluate decommissioning scenarios, nine evaluation attributes are considered. These attributes are: the primary cost, the peripheral cost, the waste treatment cost, the worker's exposure, the worker's safety, the work difficulty, the originality of the dismantling technologies, their contributions to other industries, public relations for, and an understanding of the public. The weighting values of the attributes were determined by using the AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) method and their utility functions are produced from several questionnaires for the decision makers. As an implementation, this method was applied to evaluate two scenarios, the plasma arc cutting scenario and the nibbler cutting scenario for decommissioning the thermal column in KRR- 1 (Korea Research Reactor-1). As a result, this method has many merits even although it is difficult to produce the utility function of each attribute. However, once they are setup it is easy to measure the alternatives' values and it can be applied regardless of the number of alternatives. (authors)
Kim, S.K.; Park, K.W.; Lee, H.S.; Jung, C.H. [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Yuseong-Gu, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)
CO2 Reduction through Optimization of Steam Network in Petroleum Refineries: Evaluation of New Scenario
Steam network of petroleum refinery is energy intensive, and consequently contribute significantly to the greenhouse gases emissions. A simple model for the estimation of CO2 emissions associated with operation of steam network as encountered in refineries is introduced. In conjunction with a shortcut model this model has been used to calculate of the steam network of an existing refinery aiming at minimization total annualized cost with considering emissions. In this paper, the case study is steam network of southern Tehran refinery. Simulation of this case has been performed in STAR software that licensed by energy system laboratory at K.N. Toosi University of Technology. Mathematical linear programming method has been applied to optimization of steam network. In addition, the short cut model of CO2 production has been provided for evaluation of steam network with considering CO2 production taxes and other economic effects in total annualized cost. Meanwhile, in this research, new scenario has been defined and evaluated. Results shows new scenario have 45 % less TAOC rather than base scenario in optimal condition.
Manesh, M. H. K; Khodaie, H.; Amidpour, M.
A Cognitive Bias Approach to Feature Selection and Weighting for Case-Based Learners
Research in psychology, psycholinguistics, and cognitive science has discovered and examined numerous psychological constraints on human information processing. Short term memory limitations, a focus of attention bias, and a preference for the use of ... Keywords: case-based learning, feature set selection, feature weighting, instance-based learning, natural language learning
Claire Cardie
Towards case-based parsing: are chunks reliable indicators for syntax trees?
This paper presents an approach to the question whether it is possible to construct a parser based on ideas from case-based reasoning. Such a parser would employ a partial analysis of the input sentence to select a (nearly) complete syntax tree and then ...
Sandra Kübler
Free-Ridership in the Standards-Setting Process: The Case of 10BaseT
Free-Ridership in the Standards-Setting Process: The Case of 10BaseT Martin B.H. Weiss Ronald T to their non-exclusionary nature, are subject to free riders. In this paper, we consider free ridership that free-ridership existed in the development of the 10BaseT standard and in the subsequent product market
Developing an energy-saving and case-based reasoning information agent with Web service and ontology techniques
Web service and ontology techniques are presented herein for supporting an energy-saving and case-based reasoning information agent. The proposed system is the first energy-saving and case-based reasoning information agent with Web service and ontology ... Keywords: Case-based reasoning agents, Energy-saving information systems, Ontology, Web services
Sheng-Yuan Yang
IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios
Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)
IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios Get Javascript Other reports in this collection Special Report on Emissions Scenarios Foreword Preface Summary for policymakers Technical Summary Chapters Chapter 1: Background and Overview Chapter 2: An Overview of the Scenario Literature Chapter 3: Scenario Driving Forces Chapter 4: An Overview of Scenarios Chapter 5: Emission Scenarios Chapter 6: Summary Discussions and Recommendations Appendices index I: SRES Terms of Reference: New IPCC Emission Scenarios II: SRES Writing Team and SRES Reviewers III: Definition of SRES World Region IV: Six Modeling Approaches V: Database Description VI: Open Process VII Data tables VIII Acronyms and Abbreviations IX Chemical Symbols X Units XI Glossary of Terms XII List of Major IPCC Reports
Addressing an Uncertain Future Using Scenario Analysis
a scenario may be an oil price hike in a future year, whichon the impact of high oil prices on the global economy (seethe scenario of a high oil price (of US$35/barrel, which is
Siddiqui, Afzal S.; Marnay, Chris
Underground infrastructure damage for a Chicago scenario
Estimating effects due to an urban IND (improvised nuclear device) on underground structures and underground utilities is a challenging task. Nuclear effects tests performed at the Nevada Test Site (NTS) during the era of nuclear weapons testing provides much information on how underground military structures respond. Transferring this knowledge to answer questions about the urban civilian environment is needed to help plan responses to IND scenarios. Explosions just above the ground surface can only couple a small fraction of the blast energy into an underground shock. The various forms of nuclear radiation have limited penetration into the ground. While the shock transmitted into the ground carries only a small fraction of the blast energy, peak stresses are generally higher and peak ground displacement is lower than in the air blast. While underground military structures are often designed to resist stresses substantially higher than due to the overlying rocks and soils (overburden), civilian structures such as subways and tunnels would generally only need to resist overburden conditions with a suitable safety factor. Just as we expect the buildings themselves to channel and shield air blast above ground, basements and other underground openings as well as changes of geology will channel and shield the underground shock wave. While a weaker shock is expected in an urban environment, small displacements on very close-by faults, and more likely, soils being displaced past building foundations where utility lines enter could readily damaged or disable these services. Immediately near an explosion, the blast can 'liquefy' a saturated soil creating a quicksand-like condition for a period of time. We extrapolate the nuclear effects experience to a Chicago-based scenario. We consider the TARP (Tunnel and Reservoir Project) and subway system and the underground lifeline (electric, gas, water, etc) system and provide guidance for planning this scenario.
Dey, Thomas N [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Bos, Rabdall J [Los Alamos National Laboratory
Using the baseline environmental management report (BEMR) to examine alternate program scenarios
The US Department of Energy`s (DOE) Office of Environmental Management (EM) released the first Baseline Environmental Management Report (BEMR) in March, 1995. The Congressionally-mandated report provides life-cycle cost estimates, tentative schedules, and projected activities necessary to complete DOE`s Environmental Management Program. This ``base case`` estimate is based on current program assumptions and the most likely set of activities. However, since the future course of the Environmental Management Program depends upon a number of fundamental technical and policy choices, alternate program scenarios were developed. These alternate cases show the potential cost impacts of changing assumptions in four key areas: future land use, program funding and scheduling, technology development, and waste management configurations. Several cost and program evaluation tools were developed to support the analysis of these alternate cases. The objective of this paper is to describe the analytical tool kit developed to support the development of the 1995 Baseline Report and to discuss the application of these tools to evaluate alternate program scenarios.
Kristofferson, K.
A review of scenario generation methods
Stochastic programming models provide a powerful paradigm for decision making under uncertainty. In these models the uncertainties are captured by scenario generation and so are crucial to the quality of solutions obtained. Presently there do not exist ... Keywords: decision making, scenario generation, scenarios, stochastic optimisation, stochastic programming, uncertainty
Sovan Mitra; Nico Di Domenica
2.0 Closed-Domain Hydrate Dissociation (Base Case w/ Hydrate
Closed-Domain Hydrate Dissociation (Base Case w/ Hydrate) Closed-Domain Hydrate Dissociation (Base Case w/ Hydrate) 2.1 Problem Description One half of a 20-m, one-dimensional horizontal domain, discretized using uniformly spaced 1-m grid cells (optionally 0.1-m grid cells) is initialized with aqueous-hydrate conditions; whereas, the other half of the domain is initialized with gas-aqueous conditions. As with the Base Case problem, a closed horizontal domain is used to eliminate gravitational body forces and boundary condition effects. The initial conditions are specified to yield complete dissociation of the hydrate, via the thermal capacitance of the domain-half initialized with gas-aqueous conditions. To initialize the aqueous-hydrate half of the domain, temperature, pressure, and hydrate saturation are
Radiation Detection Computational Benchmark Scenarios
Modeling forms an important component of radiation detection development, allowing for testing of new detector designs, evaluation of existing equipment against a wide variety of potential threat sources, and assessing operation performance of radiation detection systems. This can, however, result in large and complex scenarios which are time consuming to model. A variety of approaches to radiation transport modeling exist with complementary strengths and weaknesses for different problems. This variety of approaches, and the development of promising new tools (such as ORNL's ADVANTG) which combine benefits of multiple approaches, illustrates the need for a means of evaluating or comparing different techniques for radiation detection problems. This report presents a set of 9 benchmark problems for comparing different types of radiation transport calculations, identifying appropriate tools for classes of problems, and testing and guiding the development of new methods. The benchmarks were drawn primarily from existing or previous calculations with a preference for scenarios which include experimental data, or otherwise have results with a high level of confidence, are non-sensitive, and represent problem sets of interest to NA-22. From a technical perspective, the benchmarks were chosen to span a range of difficulty and to include gamma transport, neutron transport, or both and represent different important physical processes and a range of sensitivity to angular or energy fidelity. Following benchmark identification, existing information about geometry, measurements, and previous calculations were assembled. Monte Carlo results (MCNP decks) were reviewed or created and re-run in order to attain accurate computational times and to verify agreement with experimental data, when present. Benchmark information was then conveyed to ORNL in order to guide testing and development of hybrid calculations. The results of those ADVANTG calculations were then sent to PNNL for compilation. This is a report describing the details of the selected Benchmarks and results from various transport codes.
Shaver, Mark W.; Casella, Andrew M.; Wittman, Richard S.; McDonald, Ben S.
South Africa Long Term Mitigation Scenarios | Open Energy Information
Open Energy Info (EERE)
South Africa Long Term Mitigation Scenarios South Africa Long Term Mitigation Scenarios Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: South Africa Long Term Mitigation Scenarios Agency/Company /Organization: South Africa Department of Environment Affairs and Tourism Sector: Energy, Land Topics: Background analysis, Low emission development planning Resource Type: Case studies/examples Website: www.erc.uct.ac.za/Research/publications/07Scenario_team-LTMS_Scenarios Country: South Africa Southern Africa Coordinates: -30.559482°, 22.937506° Loading map... {"minzoom":false,"mappingservice":"googlemaps3","type":"ROADMAP","zoom":14,"types":["ROADMAP","SATELLITE","HYBRID","TERRAIN"],"geoservice":"google","maxzoom":false,"width":"600px","height":"350px","centre":false,"title":"","label":"","icon":"","visitedicon":"","lines":[],"polygons":[],"circles":[],"rectangles":[],"copycoords":false,"static":false,"wmsoverlay":"","layers":[],"controls":["pan","zoom","type","scale","streetview"],"zoomstyle":"DEFAULT","typestyle":"DEFAULT","autoinfowindows":false,"kml":[],"gkml":[],"fusiontables":[],"resizable":false,"tilt":0,"kmlrezoom":false,"poi":true,"imageoverlays":[],"markercluster":false,"searchmarkers":"","locations":[{"text":"","title":"","link":null,"lat":-30.559482,"lon":22.937506,"alt":0,"address":"","icon":"","group":"","inlineLabel":"","visitedicon":""}]}
The Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) has had a longstanding goal of introducing uncertainty into the analysis it routinely conducts in compliance with the Government Performance and Results Act (GPRA) and for strategic management purposes. The need to introduce some treatment of uncertainty arises both because it would be good general management practice, and because intuitively many of the technologies under development by EERE have a considerable advantage in an uncertain world. For example, an expected kWh output from a wind generator in a future year, which is not exposed to volatile and unpredictable fuel prices, should be truly worth more than an equivalent kWh from an alternative fossil fuel fired technology. Indeed, analysts have attempted to measure this value by comparing the prices observed in fixed-price natural gas contracts compared to ones in which buyers are exposed to market prices (see Bolinger, Wiser, and Golove and (2004)). In addition to the routine reasons for exploring uncertainty given above, the history of energy markets appears to have exhibited infrequent, but troubling, regime shifts, i.e., historic turning points at which the center of gravity or fundamental nature of the system appears to have abruptly shifted. Figure 1 below shows an estimate of how the history of natural gas fired generating costs has evolved over the last three decades. The costs shown incorporate both the well-head gas price and an estimate of how improving generation technology has gradually tended to lower costs. The purpose of this paper is to explore scenario analysis as a method for introducing uncertainty into EERE's forecasting in a manner consistent with the preceding observation. The two questions are how could it be done, and what is its academic basis, if any. Despite the interest in uncertainty methods, applying them poses some major hurdles because of the heavy reliance of EERE on forecasting tools that are deterministic in nature, such as the Energy Information Administration's (EIA's) National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). NEMS is the source of the influential Annual Energy Outlook whose business-as-usual (BAU) case, the Reference Case, forms the baseline for most of the U.S. energy policy discussion. NEMS is an optimizing model because: 1. it iterates to an equilibrium among modules representing the supply, demand, and energy conversion subsectors; and 2. several subsectoral models are individually solved using linear programs (LP). Consequently, it is deeply rooted in the recent past and any effort to simulate the consequences of a major regime shift as depicted in Figure 1 must come by applying an exogenously specified scenario. And, more generally, simulating futures that lie outside of our recent historic experience, even if they do not include regime switches suggest some form of scenario approach. At the same time, the statistical validity of scenarios that deviate significantly outside the ranges of historic inputs should be questioned.
Case-based techniques used for dialogue understanding and planning in a human-robot dialogue system
We describe an approach to the use of case-based techniques for natural language understanding and for action planning in a system for dialogue between a human and a robot, which in our case is a UAV (unmanned aerial vehicle). A single case base and ...
Karolina Eliasson
Independent Analysis of Seismicity and Rock fall Scenarios for the Yucca Mountain Repository
Yucca Mountain is located in the somewhat seismically active Basin and Range province. Future seismic activity is identified by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the US National Academy of Sciences as a key scenario for safety assessment of a proposed repository at Yucca Mountain. As part of its on-going program of conducting independent analyses of scientific and technical issues that could be important to the licensing of the Yucca Mountain repository, EPRI has conducted an analysis of the combined scenarios of seismic activity and stability of emplacement drifts with respect to the long-term repository safety. In this paper we present the results of 3D finite element simulations of both static and dynamic loading of a degraded waste package. For the static case, the expected maximum static load is determined by utilizing relationships between cave height and the bulking factor. A static load representing 30 meters of broken rock was simulated using the finite element model. For the dynamic case, block size and velocity data from the most recent Drift Degradation AMR are used. Based on this, a rock block with a volume of 3.11 m{sup 3} and with an impact velocity of 4.81 m/s was simulated using the finite element model. In both cases, the results indicate that the waste package remains intact. (authors)
Apted, M.J. [Monitor Scientific, 3900 S. Wadsworth Blvd., Denver, CO 80235 (United States); Kemeny, J.M. [University of Arizona, Dept. Mining and Geological Engineering, Tucson, AZ 85721 (United States); Martin, C.D. [University of Alberta, Dept. Civil and Environmental Engineering, Edmonton, AB T6G 2W2 (Canada); James, R.J. [Anatech Corp., 5435 Oberlin Dr., San Diego, CA 92121 (United States)
ONCO-i2b2: improve patients selection through case-based information retrieval techniques
The University of Pavia (Italy) and the IRCCS Fondazione Salvatore Maugeri hospital in Pavia have recently started an information technology initiative to support clinical research in oncology called ONCO-i2b2. This project aims at supporting translational ... Keywords: case-based reasoning, i2b2, oncology
Daniele Segagni; Matteo Gabetta; Valentina Tibollo; Alberto Zambelli; Silvia G. Priori; Riccardo Bellazzi
The Iron Age & Coal-based Coke: A Neglected Case of Fossil-fuel Dependence
The Iron Age & Coal-based Coke: A Neglected Case of Fossil-fuel Dependence by Vaclav Smil September share of their primary energies from renewable sources. Steel & Coal-Derived Coke Here is another important: steel's fundamental dependence on coal-derived coke with no practical substitutes on any rational
Smil, Vaclav
Community-Based Incentives for Environmental Protection: The Case of Green Electricity*
the Connecticut Clean Energy Communities (CCEC) program that provides mostly symbolic rewards in the formCommunity-Based Incentives for Environmental Protection: The Case of Green Electricity* Grant the period of initial qualification. We also find that a change in the marginal incentive created
Kotchen, Matthew J.
Knowledge representation and case-based reasoning in a knowledge management system for ambient intelligence products
The paper presents the theoretical background and realization of a KM system for the technically advanced customer and product support in the Ambient Intelligence (AmI) domain. Current products include more and more elements of AmI. AmI area is still ... Keywords: ambient intelligence, case-based reasoning, customer support system, diagnostics system, knowledge management system, knowledge representation
Ljubisa Urosevic; Sandor Kopacsi; Dragan Stokic; Ana Rita Campos; Geza Bognar
Building a case-based diet recommendation system without a knowledge engineer
We present a new approach to the effective development of menu construction systems that allow to automatically construct a menu that is strongly tailored to the individual requirements and food preferences of a client. In hospitals and other health ... Keywords: Case-based reasoning, Dietary menu construction, Knowledge acquisition, Ripple-down rules
Abdus Salam Khan; Achim Hoffmann
Benchmark scenarios for the NMSSM
We discuss constrained and semi--constrained versions of the next--to--minimal supersymmetric extension of the Standard Model (NMSSM) in which a singlet Higgs superfield is added to the two doublet superfields that are present in the minimal extension (MSSM). This leads to a richer Higgs and neutralino spectrum and allows for many interesting phenomena that are not present in the MSSM. In particular, light Higgs particles are still allowed by current constraints and could appear as decay products of the heavier Higgs states, rendering their search rather difficult at the LHC. We propose benchmark scenarios which address the new phenomenological features, consistent with present constraints from colliders and with the dark matter relic density, and with (semi--)universal soft terms at the GUT scale. We present the corresponding spectra for the Higgs particles, their couplings to gauge bosons and fermions and their most important decay branching ratios. A brief survey of the search strategies for these states at the LHC is given.
A. Djouadi; M. Drees; U. Ellwanger; R. Godbole; C. Hugonie; S. F. King; S. Lehti; S. Moretti; A. Nikitenko; I. Rottlaender; M. Schumacher; A. Teixeira
Deliverable D6.1 Requirements and scenarios for
2011 Contributing WP : WP6 Author(s) : Pierre Chatel (THA), Antoine Leger (THA), James Lockerbie (CITY.2 Atomic steps and attached requirements defined for scenario 1. Atomic steps and choreographies defined (THA), Antoine Leger (THA) 1.3 Added information from CITY, based on information gathered during
Paris-Sud XI, Université de
energy scenarios | OpenEI Community
- 14:37 Four new publications help advance renewable energy development energy scenarios fossil fuels OECD OpenEI policy Renewable Energy Four publications giving guidance to...
California Energy Demand Scenario Projections to 2050
energy scenarios to explore alternative energy pathways indo not include the alternative energy pathways (such asmodeling to investigate alternative energy supply strategies
McCarthy, Ryan; Yang, Christopher; Ogden, Joan M.
California Energy Demand Scenario Projections to 2050 RyanResearch Program California Energy Commission November 7,Chris Kavalec. California Energy Commission. CEC (2003a)
2010 - 2025 Scenario Analysis and Transition Strategies
2025 Scenario Analysis Sig Gronich Technology Validation Manager Manager- Transition Strategies DOE Hydrogen Program DOE Hydrogen Program The President's Hydrogen Fuel Initiative...
Optimal Design of a Fossil Fuel-Based Hydrogen Infrastructure with Carbon Capture and Sequestration: Case Study in Ohio
become favorable. As the price of coal feedstock is unlikelycoal scenario is less sensitive than the onsite (natural gas) scenario to fluctuations in feedstock price.
Johnson, Nils; Yang, Christopher; Ni, Jason; Johnson, Joshua; Lin, Zhenhong; Ogden, Joan M
The Unified First law in "Cosmic Triad" Vector Field Scenario
In this letter, we try to apply the unified first law to the "cosmic triad" vector field scenario both in the minimal coupling case and in the non-minimalcoupling case. After transferring the non-minimally coupling action in Jordan frame to Einstein frame, the correct dynamical equation (Friedmann equation) is gotten in a thermal equilibrium process by using the already existing entropy while the entropy in the non-minimal coupled "cosmic triad" scenario has not been derived. And after transferring the variables back to Jordan frame, the corresponding Friedmann equation is demonstrated to be correct. For complete arguments, we also calculate the related Misner-Sharp energy in Jordan and Einstein frames.
Yi Zhang; Yungui Gong; Zong-Hong Zhu
Scenario Generation for Price Forecasting in Restructured Wholesale Power Markets
In current restructured wholesale power markets, the short length of time series for prices makes it difficult to use empirical price data to test existing price forecasting tools and to develop new price forecasting tools. This study therefore proposes a two-stage approach for generating simulated price scenarios based on the available price data. The first stage consists of an Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) model for determining scenarios of cleared demands and scheduled generator outages (D&O), and a moment-matching method for reducing the number of D&O scenarios to a practical scale. In the second stage, polynomials are fitted between D&O and wholesale power prices in order to obtain price scenarios for a specified time frame. Time series data from the Midwest ISO (MISO) are used as a test system to validate the proposed approach. The simulation results indicate that the proposed approach is able to generate price scenarios for distinct seasons with empirically realistic characteristics.
Qun Zhou; Leigh Tesfatsion; Chen-Ching Liu
How should indicators be found for scenario monitoring ?
Scenario planning is a widely used approach for developing long-term strategies. The typical scenario process involves developing scenarios, identifying strategies whose success is contingent on the scenario, and monitoring ...
He, Zheng, M. Eng. Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Undulator Hall Air Temperature Fault Scenarios
Recent experience indicates that the LCLS undulator segments must not, at any time following tuning, be allowed to change temperature by more than about {+-}2.5 C or the magnetic center will irreversibly shift outside of acceptable tolerances. This vulnerability raises a concern that under fault conditions the ambient temperature in the Undulator Hall might go outside of the safe range and potentially could require removal and retuning of all the segments. In this note we estimate changes that can be expected in the Undulator Hall air temperature for three fault scenarios: (1) System-wide power failure; (2) Heating Ventilation and Air Conditioning (HVAC) system shutdown; and (3) HVAC system temperature regulation fault. We find that for either a system-wide power failure or an HVAC system shutdown (with the technical equipment left on), the short-term temperature changes of the air would be modest due to the ability of the walls and floor to act as a heat ballast. No action would be needed to protect the undulator system in the event of a system-wide power failure. Some action to adjust the heat balance, in the case of the HVAC power failure with the equipment left on, might be desirable but is not required. On the other hand, a temperature regulation failure of the HVAC system can quickly cause large excursions in air temperature and prompt action would be required to avoid damage to the undulator system.
Sevilla, J.
Comments on climate change scenario development
A short review is presented of progress in climate change scenario development. Sources of uncertainty are discussed. Critical assessment of climate models for their veracity in describing the present climate is considered essential. Methods of deriving ... Keywords: Climate change, Global climate models, Greenhouse effect, Scenarios
A. B. Pittock
Uncertainty in Integrated Assessment Scenarios
The determination of climate policy is a decision under uncertainty. The uncertainty in future climate change impacts is large, as is the uncertainty in the costs of potential policies. Rational and economically efficient policy choices will therefore seek to balance the expected marginal costs with the expected marginal benefits. This approach requires that the risks of future climate change be assessed. The decision process need not be formal or quantitative for descriptions of the risks to be useful. Whatever the decision procedure, a useful starting point is to have as accurate a description of climate risks as possible. Given the goal of describing uncertainty in future climate change, we need to characterize the uncertainty in the main causes of uncertainty in climate impacts. One of the major drivers of uncertainty in future climate change is the uncertainty in future emissions, both of greenhouse gases and other radiatively important species such as sulfur dioxide. In turn, the drivers of uncertainty in emissions are uncertainties in the determinants of the rate of economic growth and in the technologies of production and how those technologies will change over time. This project uses historical experience and observations from a large number of countries to construct statistical descriptions of variability and correlation in labor productivity growth and in AEEI. The observed variability then provides a basis for constructing probability distributions for these drivers. The variance of uncertainty in growth rates can be further modified by expert judgment if it is believed that future variability will differ from the past. But often, expert judgment is more readily applied to projected median or expected paths through time. Analysis of past variance and covariance provides initial assumptions about future uncertainty for quantities that are less intuitive and difficult for experts to estimate, and these variances can be normalized and then applied to mean trends from a model for uncertainty projections. The probability distributions of these critical model drivers, and the resulting uncertainty in projections from a range of models, can provide the basis of future emission scenario set designs.
Mort Webster
Illustrative Scenarios Tool | Open Energy Information
Illustrative Scenarios Tool Illustrative Scenarios Tool Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Illustrative Scenarios Tool Agency/Company /Organization: European Commission Focus Area: GHG Inventory Development Topics: Analysis Tools Website: www.eutransportghg2050.eu/cms/illustrative-scenarios-tool/ The SULTAN (SUstainabLe TrANsport) Illustrative Scenarios Tool is a high-level calculator to help provide estimates of the possible impacts of policy on transport in the European Union. The tool allows quick scoping of a range of transport policy options to help understand what scale of action might be required and may also be used as part of the analysis for final technical outputs of a project. How to Use This Tool This tool is most helpful when using these strategies:
Stephen Potter: Exploring rail futures using scenarios EXPLORING RAIL FUTURES USING SCENARIOS: EXPERIENCE AND POTENTIAL
and other research outputs Exploring rail futures using scenarios: experience and potential Conference Item How to cite:
Stephen Potter
HBDR: a case-based tool for organizing architectural information on historic building designs
Learning about previous design projects is a very important part of the study of architecture as well as the process of design. Historic preservation, a branch of architecture, is not an exception to this rule. In the field of historic preservation, information regarding previous design projects is available in the form of historic photographs, measured drawings, details, descriptive text and notes. This information is currently available from different sources. It must be organized to enable effective use for the student community. Case-based representation and learning systems can be used to arrange and define the case study information. In this research, I have collected and categorized information about previous historic building designs. As a part of the research, I have developed software through which the information can be made available to students at one platform. The software also captures student's comments about each case, which may be beneficial to the student's learning experience. The software has been tested by graduate students in a historic presentation course. The tests show that the software aids students in obtaining answers more quickly and with greater accuracy than paper-based descriptions of cases.
Mulye, Leena
An evaluation of integrated-gasification-combined-cycle and pulverized-coal-fired steam plants: Volume 1, Base case studies: Final report
An evaluation of the performance and costs for a Texaco-based integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) power plant as compared to a conventional pulverized coal-fired steam (PCFS) power plant with flue gas desulfurization (FGD) is provided. A general set of groundrules was used within which each plant design was optimized. The study incorporated numerous sensitivity cases along with up-to-date operating and cost data obtained through participation of equipment vendors and process developers. Consequently, the IGCC designs presented in this study use the most recent data available from Texaco's ongoing international coal gasification development program and General Electric's continuing gas turbine development efforts. The Texaco-based IGCC has advantages over the conventional PCFS technology with regard to environmental emissions and natural resource requirements. SO/sub 2/, NOx, and particulate emissions are lower. Land area and water requirements are less for IGCC concepts. Coal consumption is less due to the higher plant thermal efficiency attainable in the IGCC plant. The IGCC plant also has the capability to be designed in several different configurations, with and without the use of natural gas or oil as a backup fuel. This capability may prove to be particularly advantageous in certain utility planning and operation scenarios. 107 figs., 114 tabs.
Pietruszkiewicz, J.; Milkavich, R.J.; Booras, G.S.; Thomas, G.O.; Doss, H.
The Programmer's Apprentice: A Program Design Scenario
A scenario is used to illustrate the capabilities of a proposed Design Apprentice, focussing on the area of detailed, low-level design. Given a specification, the Design Apprentice will be able to make many of the ...
Rich, Charles
Worst Case Scenario for Large Distribution Networks with Distributed Generation
and distribution networks, finally to the electric energy consumers. The life style of a nation is measured) in distri- bution network has significant effects on voltage profile for both customers and distribution of this formula is checked by comparing with the existing power systems simulation software. Using the voltage
Pota, Himanshu Roy
Scenario Analysis of Peak Demand Savings for Commercial Buildings with
Scenario Analysis of Peak Demand Savings for Commercial Buildings with Scenario Analysis of Peak Demand Savings for Commercial Buildings with Thermal Mass in California Title Scenario Analysis of Peak Demand Savings for Commercial Buildings with Thermal Mass in California Publication Type Conference Paper LBNL Report Number LBNL-3636e Year of Publication 2010 Authors Yin, Rongxin, Sila Kiliccote, Mary Ann Piette, and Kristen Parrish Conference Name 2010 ACEEE Summer Study on Energy Efficiency in Buildings Conference Location Pacific Grove, CA Keywords demand response and distributed energy resources center, demand response research center, demand shifting (pre-cooling), DRQAT Abstract This paper reports on the potential impact of demand response (DR) strategies in commercial buildings in California based on the Demand Response Quick Assessment Tool (DRQAT), which uses EnergyPlus simulation prototypes for office and retail buildings. The study describes the potential impact of building size, thermal mass, climate, and DR strategies on demand savings in commercial buildings. Sensitivity analyses are performed to evaluate how these factors influence the demand shift and shed during the peak period. The whole-building peak demand of a commercial building with high thermal mass in a hot climate zone can be reduced by 30% using an optimized demand response strategy. Results are summarized for various simulation scenarios designed to help owners and managers understand the potential savings for demand response deployment. Simulated demand savings under various scenarios were compared to field-measured data in numerous climate zones, allowing calibration of the prototype models. The simulation results are compared to the peak demand data from the Commercial End-Use Survey for commercial buildings in California. On the economic side, a set of electricity rates are used to evaluate the impact of the DR strategies on economic savings for different thermal mass and climate conditions. Our comparison of recent simulation to field test results provides an understanding of the DR potential in commercial buildings.
The impact of ground-based glaciogenic seeding on orographic clouds and precipitation: a multi-sensor case study
A case study is presented from the 2012 AgI Seeding Cloud Impact Investigation, an experiment conducted over the Sierra Madre in southern Wyoming to study the impact of ground-based glaciogenic seeding on precipitation. In this case, on 21 ...
Binod Pokharel; Bart Geerts; Xiaoqin Jing
Generating Rainfall and Temperature Scenarios at Multiple Sites: Examples from the Mediterranean
A statistical downscaling methodology was implemented to generate daily time series of temperature and rainfall for point locations within a catchment, based on the output from general circulation models. The rainfall scenarios were constructed ...
J. P. Palutikof; C. M. Goodess; S. J. Watkins; T. Holt
Non-Standard Structure Formation Scenarios
Observations on galactic scales seem to be in contradiction with recent high resolution N-body simulations. This so-called cold dark matter (CDM) crisis has been addressed in several ways, ranging from a change in fundamental physics by introducing self-interacting cold dark matter particles to a tuning of complex astrophysical processes such as global and/or local feedback. All these efforts attempt to soften density profiles and reduce the abundance of satellites in simulated galaxy halos. In this contribution we are exploring the differences between a Warm Dark Matter model and a CDM model where the power on a certain scale is reduced by introducing a narrow negative feature (''dip''). This dip is placed in a way so as to mimic the loss of power in the WDM model: both models have the same integrated power out to the scale where the power of the Dip model rises to the level of the unperturbed CDM spectrum again. Using N-body simulations we show that that the new Dip model appears to be a viable alternative to WDM while being based on different physics: where WDM requires the introduction of a new particle species the Dip stems from a non-standard inflationary period. If we are looking for an alternative to the currently challenged standard LCDM structure formation scenario, neither the LWDM nor the new Dip model can be ruled out with respect to the analysis presented in this contribution. They both make very similar predictions and the degeneracy between them can only be broken with observations yet to come.
Alexander Knebe; Brett Little; Ranty Islam; Julien Devriendt; Asim Mahmood; Joe Silk
Evaluating Potential for Large Releases from CO2 StorageReservoirs: Analogs, Scenarios, and Modeling Needs
While the purpose of geologic storage of CO{sub 2} in deep saline formations is to trap greenhouse gases underground, the potential exists for CO{sub 2} to escape from the target reservoir, migrate upward along permeable pathways, and discharge at the land surface. Such discharge is not necessarily a serious concern, as CO{sub 2} is a naturally abundant and relatively benign gas in low concentrations. However, there is a potential risk to health, safety and environment (HSE) in the event that large localized fluxes of CO{sub 2} were to occur at the land surface, especially where CO{sub 2} could accumulate. In this paper, we develop possible scenarios for large CO{sub 2} fluxes based on the analysis of natural analogues, where large releases of gas have been observed. We are particularly interested in scenarios which could generate sudden, possibly self-enhancing, or even eruptive release events. The probability for such events may be low, but the circumstances under which they might occur and potential consequences need to be evaluated in order to design appropriate site selection and risk management strategies. Numerical modeling of hypothetical test cases is needed to determine critical conditions for such events, to evaluate whether such conditions may be possible at designated storage sites, and, if applicable, to evaluate the potential HSE impacts of such events and design appropriate mitigation strategies.
Birkholzer, Jens; Pruess, Karsten; Lewicki, Jennifer; Tsang,Chin-Fu; Karimjee, Anhar
Formulating Climate Change Scenarios to Inform Climate - Resilient...
Formulating Climate Change Scenarios to Inform Climate - Resilient Development Strategies Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary Name: Formulating Climate Change Scenarios to...
Analysis of Long-range Clean Energy Investment Scenarios for...
of Long-range Clean Energy Investment Scenarios for Eritrea, East Africa Title Analysis of Long-range Clean Energy Investment Scenarios for Eritrea, East Africa Publication Type...
DOE Hydrogen Analysis Repository: H2A Delivery Scenario Analysis...
Scenario Analysis Model (HDSAM) Project Summary Full Title: H2A Delivery Scenario Analysis Model (HDSAM) Project ID: 218 Principal Investigator: Marianne Mintz Keywords: Models;...
Agent-based simulation of pedestrian behaviour in closed spaces: a museum case study
In order to analyse the behaviour of pedestrians at the very fine scale, while moving along the streets, in open spaces or inside a building, simulation modelling becomes an essential tool. In these spatial environments, in the presence of unusual demand flows, simulation requires the ability to model the local dynamics of individual decision making and behaviour, which is strongly affected by the geometry, randomness, social preferences, local and collective behaviour of other individuals. The dynamics of people visiting and evacuating a museum offers an excellent case study along this line. In this paper we realize an agent-based simulation of the Castello Ursino museum in Catania (Italy), evaluating its carrying capacity in terms of both satisfaction of the visitors in regime of normal fruition and their safety under alarm conditions.
Pluchino, Alessandro; Inturri, Giuseppe; Rapisarda, Andrea; Ignaccolo, Matteo
ANUDlSiTM-40 Load Flow Analysis: Base Cases, Data, Diagrams, and Results
ANUDlSiTM-40 ANUDlSiTM-40 Load Flow Analysis: Base Cases, Data, Diagrams, and Results by E.C. Portante, J.A. Kavicky, J.C. VanKuiken, and J.P. Peerenboom Decision and Information Sciences Division, Argonne National Laboratory, 9700 South Cass Avenue, Argonne, Illinois 60439 October 1997 Work sponsored by Navy Engineering Logistics Office This report is printed on recycled paper. @ DISCLAIMER This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States Government. Neither the United States Government nor any agency thereof, nor any of their employees, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness. or use- fulness of any information, apparatus, product, or process disclosed, or represents
Biomass Scenario Model | Open Energy Information
Biomass Scenario Model Biomass Scenario Model Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) Agency/Company /Organization: National Renewable Energy Laboratory Partner: Department of Energy (DOE) Office of the Biomass Program Sector: Energy Focus Area: Biomass Phase: Determine Baseline, Evaluate Options Topics: Pathways analysis, Policies/deployment programs, Resource assessment Resource Type: Software/modeling tools User Interface: Desktop Application Website: bsm.nrel.gov/ Country: United States Cost: Free OpenEI Keyword(s): EERE tool, Biomass Scenario Model UN Region: Northern America Coordinates: 37.09024°, -95.712891° Loading map... {"minzoom":false,"mappingservice":"googlemaps3","type":"ROADMAP","zoom":14,"types":["ROADMAP","SATELLITE","HYBRID","TERRAIN"],"geoservice":"google","maxzoom":false,"width":"600px","height":"350px","centre":false,"title":"","label":"","icon":"","visitedicon":"","lines":[],"polygons":[],"circles":[],"rectangles":[],"copycoords":false,"static":false,"wmsoverlay":"","layers":[],"controls":["pan","zoom","type","scale","streetview"],"zoomstyle":"DEFAULT","typestyle":"DEFAULT","autoinfowindows":false,"kml":[],"gkml":[],"fusiontables":[],"resizable":false,"tilt":0,"kmlrezoom":false,"poi":true,"imageoverlays":[],"markercluster":false,"searchmarkers":"","locations":[{"text":"","title":"","link":null,"lat":37.09024,"lon":-95.712891,"alt":0,"address":"","icon":"","group":"","inlineLabel":"","visitedicon":""}]}
Enterprise mobile product strategy using scenario planning
The Mobile industry is changing at a rapid pace and so is the behavior of enterprise workforce which uses mobile technologies. When planning for a long-term product roadmap, one has to consider a myriad of evolution trends and forecasts to determine ... Keywords: Mobile enterprise, product strategy, scenario planning, strategic framework, wireless technology
Sami Muneer; Chetan Sharma
Scenarios for a Clean Energy Future ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
was provided by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE of Policy). Additional funding from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Office of AtmosphericScenarios for a Clean Energy Future xxiii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Primary funding for this report
A scenario is used to illustrate the capabilities of a proposed Design Apprentice, focussing on the area of detailed, low-level design. Given a specification, the Design Apprentice will be able to make many of the design decisions needed to synthesize the required program. The Design Apprentice will also be able to detect various kinds of contradictions and omissions in a specifica- tion.
Charles Rich; Richard C. Waters
Scenarios for a Sustainable Transportation Future
· To present some snapshots for diverse suites of options that can meet the target #12;Efficient Biofuels · To determine the most important areas to target · To see the results and tradeoffs resulting from specific, biofuels, efficiency (no alt fuels), transport demand and VMT reduction · 80% Reduction (80in50) Scenarios
California at Davis, University of
Danish Greenhouse Gas Reduction Scenarios for 2020
Danish Greenhouse Gas Reduction Scenarios for 2020 and 2050 February 2008 Prepared by Ea Energy 54 2.9 ENERGY RESOURCES 55 3 DANISH GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSION 58 3.1 GREENHOUSE GAS SOURCES 58 4 of 2007, Ea Energy Analyses and Risø DTU developed a number of greenhouse gas emissions reduction
Design Scenarios: Enabling transparent parametric design spaces
This paper presents a novel methodology called Design Scenarios (DSs) intended for use in conceptual design of buildings. DS enables multidisciplinary design teams to streamline the requirements definition, alternative generation, analysis, and decision-making ... Keywords: Conceptual design, Design spaces, Ontology, Parametric modeling, Process mapping, Requirements modeling
Victor Gane; John Haymaker
Scenario Evaluation, Regionalization & Analysis (SERA) | Open Energy
Scenario Evaluation, Regionalization & Analysis (SERA) Scenario Evaluation, Regionalization & Analysis (SERA) Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary Name: Scenario Evaluation, Regionalization & Analysis (SERA) Agency/Company /Organization: National Renewable Energy Laboratory Scenario Evaluation, Regionalization & Analysis (SERA) Screenshot Logo: Scenario Evaluation, Regionalization & Analysis (SERA) SERA (Scenario Evaluation, Regionalization & Analysis) is a geospatially and temporally oriented infrastructure analysis model that determines the optimal production and delivery scenarios for hydrogen, given resource availability and technology cost. Given annual H2 demands on a city-by-city basis, forecasts of feedstock costs, and a catalog of available hydrogen production and transportation technologies, the model generates
Value-Based Operations and Maintenance Practices
Utilities can maximize the net corporate value of their operating and maintenance practices through a systematic approach that employs decision analysis techniques and marginal-value analysis. In a case study that confirmed the merit of the value-based approach, Duke Power Company developed and tested decision trees for specific predictive maintenance scenarios.
An approach to model validation and model-based prediction -- polyurethane foam case study.
Enhanced software methodology and improved computing hardware have advanced the state of simulation technology to a point where large physics-based codes can be a major contributor in many systems analyses. This shift toward the use of computational methods has brought with it new research challenges in a number of areas including characterization of uncertainty, model validation, and the analysis of computer output. It is these challenges that have motivated the work described in this report. Approaches to and methods for model validation and (model-based) prediction have been developed recently in the engineering, mathematics and statistical literatures. In this report we have provided a fairly detailed account of one approach to model validation and prediction applied to an analysis investigating thermal decomposition of polyurethane foam. A model simulates the evolution of the foam in a high temperature environment as it transforms from a solid to a gas phase. The available modeling and experimental results serve as data for a case study focusing our model validation and prediction developmental efforts on this specific thermal application. We discuss several elements of the ''philosophy'' behind the validation and prediction approach: (1) We view the validation process as an activity applying to the use of a specific computational model for a specific application. We do acknowledge, however, that an important part of the overall development of a computational simulation initiative is the feedback provided to model developers and analysts associated with the application. (2) We utilize information obtained for the calibration of model parameters to estimate the parameters and quantify uncertainty in the estimates. We rely, however, on validation data (or data from similar analyses) to measure the variability that contributes to the uncertainty in predictions for specific systems or units (unit-to-unit variability). (3) We perform statistical analyses and hypothesis tests as a part of the validation step to provide feedback to analysts and modelers. Decisions on how to proceed in making model-based predictions are made based on these analyses together with the application requirements. Updating modifying and understanding the boundaries associated with the model are also assisted through this feedback. (4) We include a ''model supplement term'' when model problems are indicated. This term provides a (bias) correction to the model so that it will better match the experimental results and more accurately account for uncertainty. Presumably, as the models continue to develop and are used for future applications, the causes for these apparent biases will be identified and the need for this supplementary modeling will diminish. (5) We use a response-modeling approach for our predictions that allows for general types of prediction and for assessment of prediction uncertainty. This approach is demonstrated through a case study supporting the assessment of a weapons response when subjected to a hydrocarbon fuel fire. The foam decomposition model provides an important element of the response of a weapon system in this abnormal thermal environment. Rigid foam is used to encapsulate critical components in the weapon system providing the needed mechanical support as well as thermal isolation. Because the foam begins to decompose at temperatures above 250 C, modeling the decomposition is critical to assessing a weapons response. In the validation analysis it is indicated that the model tends to ''exaggerate'' the effect of temperature changes when compared to the experimental results. The data, however, are too few and to restricted in terms of experimental design to make confident statements regarding modeling problems. For illustration, we assume these indications are correct and compensate for this apparent bias by constructing a model supplement term for use in the model-based predictions. Several hypothetical prediction problems are created and addressed. Hypothetical problems are used because no guidance was provided concern
Dowding, Kevin J.; Rutherford, Brian Milne
Habitat-Lite: A GSC case study based on free text terms for environmental metadata
There is an urgent need to capture metadata on the rapidly growing number of genomic, metagenomic and related sequences, such as 16S ribosomal genes. This need is a major focus within the Genomic Standards Consortium (GSC), and Habitat is a key metadata descriptor in the proposed 'Minimum Information about a Genome Sequence' (MIGS) specification. The goal of the work described here is to provide a light-weight, easy-to-use (small) set of terms ('Habitat-Lite') that captures high-level information about habitat while preserving a mapping to the recently launched Environment Ontology (EnvO). Our motivation for building Habitat-Lite is to meet the needs of multiple users, such as annotators curating these data, database providers hosting the data, and biologists and bioinformaticians alike who need to search and employ such data in comparative analyses. Here, we report a case study based on semi-automated identification of terms from GenBank and GOLD. We estimate that the terms in the initial version of Habitat-Lite would provide useful labels for over 60% of the kinds of information found in the GenBank isolation-source field, and around 85% of the terms in the GOLD habitat field. We present a revised version of Habitat-Lite and invite the community's feedback on its further development in order to provide a minimum list of terms to capture high-level habitat information and to provide classification bins needed for future studies.
Kyrpides, Nikos; Hirschman, Lynette; Clark, Cheryl; Cohen, K. Bretonnel; Mardis, Scott; Luciano, Joanne; Kottmann, Renzo; Cole, James; Markowitz, Victor; Kyrpides, Nikos; Field, Dawn
An Experiment on Graph Analysis Methodologies for Scenarios
Visual graph representations are increasingly used to represent, display, and explore scenarios and the structure of organizations. The graph representations of scenarios are readily understood, and commercial software is available to create and manage these representations. The purpose of the research presented in this paper is to explore whether these graph representations support quantitative assessments of the underlying scenarios. The underlying structure of the scenarios is the information that is being targeted in the experiment and the extent to which the scenarios are similar in content. An experiment was designed that incorporated both the contents of the scenarios and analysts' graph representations of the scenarios. The scenarios' content was represented graphically by analysts, and both the structure and the semantics of the graph representation were attempted to be used to understand the content. The structure information was not found to be discriminating for the content of the scenarios in this experiment; but, the semantic information was discriminating.
Brothers, Alan J.; Whitney, Paul D.; Wolf, Katherine E.; Kuchar, Olga A.; Chin, George
Illustrative Scenarios Tool (European Union) | Open Energy Information
Illustrative Scenarios Tool (European Union) Illustrative Scenarios Tool (European Union) Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Illustrative Scenarios Tool (European Union) Focus Area: Propane Topics: Opportunity Assessment & Screening Website: www.eutransportghg2050.eu/cms/illustrative-scenarios-tool/ Equivalent URI: cleanenergysolutions.org/content/illustrative-scenarios-tool-european- Language: English Policies: "Deployment Programs,Regulations" is not in the list of possible values (Deployment Programs, Financial Incentives, Regulations) for this property. DeploymentPrograms: Technical Assistance Regulations: Emissions Standards The SUstainabLe TrANsport (SULTAN) Illustrative Scenarios Tool is a high-level calculator to help provide estimates of the possible impacts of
Energy-efficient forwarding mechanism for wireless opportunistic networks in emergency scenarios
During emergency situations, the use of mobile devices and wireless opportunistic networks as a solution of destroyed or overused communication networks are vital. In these cases, the fast and reliable delivery of emergency information, together with ... Keywords: Emergency scenarios, Energy-efficiency, Opportunistic forwarding, Opportunistic networks, Performance evaluation
Abraham MartíN-Campillo; Ramon Martí
Future restrictions on diesel fuel combustion in California: Energy and emissions implications of four scenarios
The paper discusses alternatives to diesel displacement, describing several scenarios. It studies three basic cases: (1) cars and trucks; (2) urban buses; and (3) off-road vehicles. The discussion also includes changes in energy use and emissions expected from the production and combustion of alternative fuels.
Saricks, C.L.; Rote, D.M.; Stodolsky, F.; Eberhardt, J.J.
A hybrid approach using data envelopment analysis and case-based reasoning for housing refurbishment contractors selection and performance improvement
The refurbishment market has grown greatly in the last decade. Relevant projects are becoming increasingly more demanding in the construction industry due to the emphasis on sustainability. Most refurbishment works, however, involve a higher level of ... Keywords: Case-based reasoning (CBR), Contractors selection, Data envelopment analysis (DEA), Housing refurbishment, Performance improvement
Yi-Kai Juan
Integrating gray system theory and logistic regression into case-based reasoning for safety assessment of thermal power plants
Safety assessment of thermal power plants (TPPs) is one of the important means to guarantee the safety of production in thermal power production enterprises. Due to various technical limitations, existing assessment approaches, such as analytic hierarchy ... Keywords: Case-based reasoning, Gray system theory, Intelligent decision support system, Logistic regression, Management safety assessment, Thermal power plants
Changyong Liang; Dongxiao Gu; Isabelle Bichindaritz; Xingguo Li; Chunrong Zuo; Wenen Cheng
NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 | Open Energy Information
NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 Jump to: navigation, search Name NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 Agency/Company /Organization National Institute for Environmental Studies Topics Background analysis, Low emission development planning Website http://2050.nies.go.jp/LCS/ind Program Start 2009 Country Bangladesh, China, India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam UN Region Eastern Asia References 2050 Low-Carbon Society Scenarios (LCSs)[1] National and Local Scenarios National and local scenarios available from the activity webpage: http://2050.nies.go.jp/LCS/index.html References ↑ "2050 Low-Carbon Society Scenarios (LCSs)" Retrieved from "http://en.openei.org/w/index.php?title=NIES_Low-Carbon_Society_Scenarios_2050&oldid=553682"
Empirically Downscaled Multimodel Ensemble Temperature and Precipitation Scenarios for Norway
A number of different global climate model scenarios are used in order to infer local climate scenarios for various locations in Norway. Results from empirically downscaled multimodel ensembles of temperature and precipitation for the period 2000–...
Modeling Clean and Secure Energy Scenarios for the Indian Power...
Clean and Secure Energy Scenarios for the Indian Power Sector in 2030 Title Modeling Clean and Secure Energy Scenarios for the Indian Power Sector in 2030 Publication Type Report...
The Development of Impact-Oriented Climate Scenarios
Appropriate scenarios of future climate must be developed prior to any assessment of the impacts of climate change. Information needed was examined in consultation with those having experience in scenario use. Most assessors require regional ...
P. J. Robinson; P. L. Finkelstein
Integrated Operation Scenarios ITPA Topical Group Meeting | Princeton...
20, 2010, 9:00am to April 23, 2010, 5:00pm Conference Princeton, NJ Integrated Operation Scenarios ITPA Topical Group Meeting Integrated Operation Scenarios ITPA Topical Group...
Scenario-Driven Training | Y-12 National Security Complex
Scenario-Driven Training Scenario-Driven Training An initial entry team member assesses the overall hazards in a clandestine lab. Y-12's Nuclear and Radiological Field Training...
FCT Systems Analysis: 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen...
-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure to someone by E-mail Share FCT Systems Analysis: 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell...
FCT Systems Analysis: DOE 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis Meeting...
to someone by E-mail Share FCT Systems Analysis: DOE 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis Meeting: January 31, 2007 on Facebook Tweet about FCT Systems Analysis: DOE 2010-2025 Scenario...
Biomass Scenario Model Documentation: Data and References
The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model that represents the entire biomass-to-biofuels supply chain, from feedstock to fuel use. The BSM is a complex model that has been used for extensive analyses; the model and its results can be better understood if input data used for initialization and calibration are well-characterized. It has been carefully validated and calibrated against the available data, with data gaps filled in using expert opinion and internally consistent assumed values. Most of the main data sources that feed into the model are recognized as baseline values by the industry. This report documents data sources and references in Version 2 of the BSM (BSM2), which only contains the ethanol pathway, although subsequent versions of the BSM contain multiple conversion pathways. The BSM2 contains over 12,000 total input values, with 506 distinct variables. Many of the variables are opportunities for the user to define scenarios, while others are simply used to initialize a stock, such as the initial number of biorefineries. However, around 35% of the distinct variables are defined by external sources, such as models or reports. The focus of this report is to provide insight into which sources are most influential in each area of the supply chain.
Lin, Y.; Newes, E.; Bush, B.; Peterson, S.; Stright, D.
Renewable Energy Scenarios for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
demand, since manufacturing wind turbines is not as energy-intensive as the production of solar (silicon, etc. associated with the operation of wind turbines. Moreover, despite a number of previous 22 6.4 Other Issues 23 7. Scenarios Narratives 24 7.1 Blue Scenarios 24 7.2 Yellow Scenarios 25 7
Watson, Andrew
KITSS: a knowledge-based translation system for test scenarios
Machine-assisted language translation systems for technical documents, guide humans through a process of selecting and composing variant partial translations. The constrained nature of technical sublanguages makes language processing aids cost-effective ...
Van E. Kelly; Mark A. Jones
An Integrated Scenario-Based Approach for Robust Aircraft Routing ...
introduced a new algorithm to accurately calculate and minimize the cost of propagated .... allows an airline to incorporate historical primary delay information into the .... Maintenance feasible routings are represented as columns of an m × nR binary matrix ...... Transportation Research Board 87th Annual Meeting, 2008.
A copula-based heuristic for scenario generation
Aug 27, 2013 ... The original publication is available at www.springerlink.com. ... always speci ed using the correlation (or variance-covariance) matrix. ... to exist in nancial data (
Measurements of aerosol properties from aircraft, satellite and ground-based remote sensing: a case-study from the Dust and Biomass-burning Experiment (DABEX)
Measurements of aerosol properties from aircraft, satellite and ground-based remote sensing: A case study from the Dust and Biomass burning Experiment (DABEX)
Johnson, B. T.; Christopher, S.; Haywood, J.; Osborne, S. R.; McFarlane, Sally; Hsu, C.; Salustro, C.; Kahn, Ralph
The implications of future building scenarios for long-term building energy research and development
This report presents a discussion of alternative future scenarios of the building environment to the year 2010 and assesses the implications these scenarios present for long-term building energy R and D. The scenarios and energy R and D implications derived from them are intended to serve as the basis from which a strategic plan can be developed for the management of R and D programs conducted by the Office of Buildings and Community Systems, US Department of Energy. The scenarios and analysis presented here have relevance not only for government R and D programs; on the contrary, it is hoped that the results of this effort will be of interest and useful to researchers in both private and public sector organizations that deal with building energy R and D. Making R and D decisions today based on an analysis that attempts to delineate the nexus of events 25 years in the future are clearly decisions made in the face of uncertainty. Yet, the effective management of R and D programs requires a future-directed understanding of markets, technological developments, and environmental factors, as well as their interactions. The analysis presented in this report is designed to serve that need. Although the probability of any particular scenario actually occurring is uncertain, the scenarios to be presented are sufficiently robust to set bounds within which to examine the interaction of forces that will shape the future building environment.
Flynn, W.T.
Formulating Climate Change Scenarios to Inform Climate - Resilient
Formulating Climate Change Scenarios to Inform Climate - Resilient Formulating Climate Change Scenarios to Inform Climate - Resilient Development Strategies Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary Name: Formulating Climate Change Scenarios to Inform Climate - Resilient Development Strategies Agency/Company /Organization: United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) Topics: Low emission development planning Resource Type: Guide/manual Website: www.climatefinanceoptions.org/cfo/node/256 Language: English Formulating Climate Change Scenarios to Inform Climate - Resilient Development Strategies Screenshot References: Formulating Climate Change Scenarios to Inform Climate - Resilient Development Strategies[1] Tool Overview "This guidebook is part of a series of manuals, guidebooks, and toolkits that draw upon the experience and information generated by UNDP's support
A Malaysian Case Study on the Transmission Expansion/Investment Using Value-Based Approach
The introduction of Incentive Based Regulation as the tariff framework in Malaysia's Electricity Supply Industry calls for efficiency in the creation of a new asset while meeting the required reliability. In line with the new regulatory framework, Tenaga ... Keywords: asset management, incentive based regulation, life cycle cost, value-based approach, reliability
Joon Ibrahim, Nor Ziha Zainol Abidin
The jamming scenario - an introduction and outlook
The jamming scenario of disordered media, formulated about 10 years ago, has in recent years been advanced by analyzing model systems of granular media. This has led to various new concepts that are increasingly being explored in in a variety of systems. This chapter contains an introductory review of these recent developments and provides an outlook on their applicability to different physical systems and on future directions. The first part of the paper is devoted to an overview of the findings for model systems of frictionless spheres, focussing on the excess of low-frequency modes as the jamming point is approached. Particular attention is paid to a discussion of the cross-over frequency and length scales that govern this approach. We then discuss the effects of particle asphericity and static friction, the applicability to bubble models for wet foams in which the friction is dynamic, the dynamical arrest in colloids, and the implications for molecular glasses.
Andrea J. Liu; Sidney R. Nagel; Wim van Saarloos; Matthieu Wyart
Business Practices for Environmental Excellence: Guidelines: Based on Case Studies of Other Industries
As competition unfolds, electric companies can leverage the experience of other industries that have developed successful environmental programs under similar market conditions. The case studies and guidelines in this report offer valuable pointers -- both specific business practices and general organizational approaches -- to utilities seeking to manage environmental performance as a corporate asset.
Analysis of market penetration scenarios of clean coal technologies in China using the LLNL China Energy Model
This paper presents the results of an analysis of the market penetration of Clean Coal Technologies in the electric utility market in China. The analysis is based on a model of the Chinese energy system developed at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. Under this model, the market penetration of a technology depends on the relative prices of all technologies in a market. The model assumes that for each technology there is a distribution of effective prices to the consumers in the market place. The prices for each technology computed in the model are assumed to be the means of these distributions: sometime the effective price is greater than this and sometimes it is less. Thus even a relatively expensive technology may cost less than its competitors in a fraction of the transactions. Using several scenarios about the possible dispersion of prices, we estimate the market share of CCTs over the next 50 years. We find that some CCTs penetrate under all scenarios, but the more expensive ones only show significant penetration when larger values of price dispersion are assumed. Generally the penetration of the CCTs is 15% or less of the market by 2020. However, advanced pulverized coal does exceed 15% in some cases.
Lamont, A
Risk-Based Maintenance Application Case Study: Risk Evaluation and Prioritization at a Fossil Power Plant
This report describes an application of the use of risk-based maintenance prioritization at a fossil power plant. In 2002, EPRI issued a report titled "Risk Based Maintenance Guideline" (product number 1004382) for fossil power plants. That guideline described several risk-based methods, which are being used in other industries primarily within the United States. Since then, a method called Risk Evaluation and Prioritization (REaP) has been evaluated for its use in decision making at fossil power plants ...
Validation of PV performance models using satellite-based irradiance measurements : a case study.
Photovoltaic (PV) system performance models are relied upon to provide accurate predictions of energy production for proposed and existing PV systems under a wide variety of environmental conditions. Ground based meteorological measurements are only available from a relatively small number of locations. In contrast, satellite-based radiation and weather data (e.g., SUNY database) are becoming increasingly available for most locations in North America, Europe, and Asia on a 10 x 10 km grid or better. This paper presents a study of how PV performance model results are affected when satellite-based weather data is used in place of ground-based measurements.
Stein, Joshua S.; Parkins, Andrew (Clean Power Research); Perez, Richard (University at Albany)
ReEDS Model Documentation: Base Case Data and Model Description
/ electricity generated Utility emissions rates based on eGRID 2007 V1.1 data from U.S. EPA New Jersey New
been assigned specific terms related to extreme habitatsstudy based on free text terms for environmental metadatato- use (small) set of terms ("Habitat-Lite") that captures
Hirschman, Lynette
Information systems continuance intention of web-based applications customers: The case of online banking
The proliferation of the Internet has not only allowed businesses to offer their products and services through web-based applications, but it has also undermined their ability to retain their customers. It has reduced search costs, opened up barriers ... Keywords: Commitment, Commitment-Trust theory, End-user relationship, Relationship marketing, Retention, Trust, Web-based application
Banphot Vatanasombut; Magid Igbaria; Antonis C. Stylianou; Waymond Rodgers
Laboratory. Natural Gas Price Scenarios Among activelys 2004 IRP includes three gas price scenarios. As shownwellhead price in the High gas price scenario is $1.43/Mcf
. Professor and Director of Opera Nancy Hermiston, directed the opera based on Timothy Findley's novel Pilgrim
H2A Delivery Scenario Model and Analyses
H2A Delivery Scenario Model H2A Delivery Scenario Model and Analyses Marianne Mintz and Jerry Gillette DOE Hydrogen Delivery Analysis and High Pressure Tanks R&D Project Review Meeting February 8, 2005 2 Pioneering Science and Technology Office of Science U.S. Department of Energy Topics * Delivery Scenarios - Current status - Future scenarios * Delivery Scenarios model - Approach - Structure - Current status - Results * Pipeline modeling - Approach - Key assumptions - Results * Next Steps 3 Pioneering Science and Technology Office of Science U.S. Department of Energy Delivery Scenarios 4 Pioneering Science and Technology Office of Science U.S. Department of Energy Three-Quarters of the US Population Reside in Urbanized Areas East of the Mississippi there are many large, proximate urban areas. In the West
Greenhouse Gas Initiative Scenario Database | Open Energy Information
Greenhouse Gas Initiative Scenario Database Greenhouse Gas Initiative Scenario Database Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary Name: Greenhouse Gas Initiative Scenario Database Agency/Company /Organization: Science for Global Insight Sector: Climate, Energy, Land Topics: Baseline projection, GHG inventory, Pathways analysis Resource Type: Dataset, Online calculator, Software/modeling tools User Interface: Website Website: www.iiasa.ac.at/web-apps/ggi/GgiDb/dsd?Action=htmlpage&page=about Cost: Free References: Greenhouse Gas Initiative Scenario Database[1] The GGI (Greenhouse Gas Initiative) scenario database documents the results of a set of greenhouse gas emission scenarios that were created using the IIASA Integrated Assessment Modeling Framework and previously documented in a special issue of the Technological Forecasting and Social Change.
Rights-based evaluation of government responses to a given 'natural' disaster : Katrina as case study
Disaster impacts human mobility and a rights-based approach to disaster response is needed to protect the human rights of those who seek migration as an adaptation strategy. This paper deals with returning to a place after ...
Haeffner, Melissa (Melissa Ann)
On the practice of artificial intelligence based predictive control scheme: a case study
This paper describes a novel artificial intelligence based predictive control scheme for the purpose of dealing with so many complicated systems. In the control scheme proposed here, the system has to be first represented through a multi-Takagi-Sugeno-Kang ... Keywords: Drum-type boiler-turbine system, GPC identifier, GPC scheme, Industrial tubular heat exchanger system, Linear model approximation, Multi-GPC scheme, Multi-TSK fuzzy-based model approach, NLGPC scheme, System operating points
A. H. Mazinan; M. Sheikhan
ESS 2012 Peer Review - Iron Based Flow Batteries for Low Cost Grid Level Energy Storage - Jesse Wainright, Case Western Reserve
authors gratefully acknowledge the support of the Department of Energy/Office of Electricity's Energy Storage Program. authors gratefully acknowledge the support of the Department of Energy/Office of Electricity's Energy Storage Program. Iron Based Flow Batteries for Low Cost Grid Level Energy Storage J.S. Wainright, R. F. Savinell, P.I.s Dept. of Chemical Engineering, Case Western Reserve University Purpose Impact on Iron Based Batteries on the DOE OE Energy Storage Mission Recent Results Recent Results Develop efficient, cost-effective grid level storage capability based on iron. Goals of this Effort: * Minimize Cost/Watt by increasing current density - Hardware Cost >> Electrolyte Cost * Minimize Cost/Whr by increasing plating capacity * Maximize Efficiency by minimizing current lost to hydrogen evolution Electrochemistry of the all-Iron system:
A Context Model and Reasoning System to improve object trackingin complex scenarios
Tracking algorithms in computer vision usually fail when dealing with complex scenarios. This paper presents an extension of a general tracking system that uses context knowledge to solve tracking issues. The context layer represents knowledge about ... Keywords: Context based reasoning, Knowledge modeling, Video processing, Visual tracking
A. M. Sánchez; M. A. Patricio; J. García; J. M. Molina
Solar and Wind Energy Utilization and Project Development Scenarios
Utilization and Project Development Scenarios
(Abstract): Solar and wind energy resources in Ethiopia have not been given due attention in the past. Some of...
Climate Change Mitigation: An Analysis of Advanced Technology Scenarios
This report documents a scenario analysis that explores three advanced technology pathways toward climate stabilization using the MiniCAM model.
Clarke, Leon E.; Wise, Marshall A.; Placet, Marylynn; Izaurralde, R Cesar; Lurz, Joshua P.; Kim, Son H.; Smith, Steven J.; Thomson, Allison M.
Scenario Modelling: A Holistic Environmental and Energy Management...
Development Contact Us Department Contacts Media Contacts Scenario Modelling: A Holistic Environmental and Energy Management Technique for Building Managers Speaker(s): James...
Mapping Climate Change Vulnerability and Impact Scenarios - A...
Mapping Climate Change Vulnerability and Impact Scenarios - A Guidebook for Sub-national Planners Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary Name: Mapping Climate Change...
Development of Sea Level Rise Scenarios for Climate Change Assessments...
Development of Sea Level Rise Scenarios for Climate Change Assessments of the Mekong Delta, Vietnam Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary Name: Development of Sea Level Rise...
Enduse Global Emissions Mitigation Scenarios (EGEMS): A New Generation...
Appliance Efficiency, bottom-up, china, emissions scenarios, end use, energy demand, forecasting, greenhouse gas emissions, india, modelling, Multi-Country, refrigerators URL...
A Method for Evaluating Fire After Earthquake Scenarios for Single...
using statistical methods to determine some aspects of the bounding scenario. Historical weather data has been used in dispersion calculations to determine the 95 th percentile...
During 1999, the U.S. Department of Energy, in conjunction with its nuclear laboratories, a national steering committee, and a panel of world experts, developed a roadmap for research, development, demonstration, and deployment of Accelerator-driven Transmutation of Waste (ATW). The ATW concept that was examined in this roadmap study was based on that developed at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) during the 1990s. The reference deployment scenario in the Roadmap was developed to treat 86,300 tn (metric tonnes initial heavy metal) of spent nuclear fuel that will accumulate through 2035 from existing U.S. nuclear power plants (without license extensions). The disposition of this spent nuclear reactor fuel is an issue of national importance, as is disposition of spent fuel in other nations. The U.S. program for the disposition of this once-through fuel is focused to characterize a candidate site at Yucca Mountain, Nevada for a geological repository for spent fuel and high-level waste. The ATW concept is being examined in the U.S. because removal of plutonium minor actinides, and two very long-lived isotopes from the spent fuel can achieve some important objectives. These objectives include near-elimination of plutonium, reduction of the inventory and mobility of long-lived radionuclides in the repository, and use of the remaining energy content of the spent fuel to produce power. The long-lived radionuclides iodine and technetium have roughly one million year half-lives, and they are candidates for transport into the environment via movement of ground water. The scientists and engineers who contributed to the Roadmap Study determined that the ATW is affordable, doable, and its deployment would support all the objectives. We report the status of the U.S. ATW program describe baseline and alternate technologies, and discuss deployment scenarios to support the existing U.S. nuclear capability and/or future growth with a variety of new fuel cycles.
Scenario development for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant: Building confidence in the assessment
Scenario development is part of the iterative performance assessment (PA) process for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). Scenario development for the WIPP has been the subject of intense external review and is certain to be the subject of continued scrutiny as the project proceeds toward regulatory compliance. The principal means of increasing confidence in this aspect of the PA will be through the use of the systematic and thorough procedure toward developing the scenarios and conceptual models on which the assessment is to be based. Early and ongoing interaction with project reviewers can assist with confidence building. Quality of argument and clarity of presentation in PA will be of key concern. Appropriate tools are required for documenting and tracking assumptions, through a single assessment phase, and between iterative assessment phases. Risks associated with future human actions are of particular concern to the WIPP project, and international consensus on the principles for incorporation of future human actions in assessments would be valuable.
Galson, D.A.; Swift, P.N.
Neutronic Study of Slightly Modified Water Reactors and Application to Transition Scenarios
In this paper we have studied slightly modified water reactors and their applications to transition scenarios. The PWR and CANDU reactors have been considered. New fuels based on Thorium have been tested: Thorium/Plutonium and Thorium/Uranium- 233, with different fissile isotope contents. Changes in the geometry of the assemblies were also explored to modify the moderation ratio, and consequently the neutron flux spectrum. A core equivalent assembly methodology was introduced as an exploratory approach and to reduce the computation time. Several basic safety analyses were also performed. We have finally developed a new scenario code, named OSCAR (Optimized Scenario Code for Advanced Reactors), to study the efficiency of these modified reactors in transition to Gen IV reactors or in symbiotic fleet. (authors)
Chambon, Richard; Guillemin, Perrine; Nuttin, Alexis; Bidaud, A. [LPSC, Universite Joseph Fourier Grenoble 1, CNRS/IN2P3, Institut National Polytechnique de Grenoble 53 Av. Des Martyrs, 38000 Grenoble (France); Capellan, N.; David, S.; Meplan, O.; Wilson, J. [Institut de Physique Nucleaire - IPN, 15 rue Georges Clemenceau 91406 Orsay (France)
Judicial support systems: ideas for a privacy ontology-based case analyzer
Nowadays, ontology is applied as an integral part of many applications in several domains, especially in the world of law. The ontology based judicial support system is believed as a useful tool to support, for example, the legal argumentation assistant ... Keywords: privacy directives, privacy ontology, privacy ontology structure, privacy principles, woolf reforms
Yan Tang; Robert Meersman
Computers & Geosciences 29 (2003) 351359 A case against Kd-based transport models: natural attenuation
)-based transport model. The study site is a contaminated groundwater aquifer underneath a uranium mill tailings prediction of the fate and transport of regulated metals and radionuclides in the subsurface of abandoned mining sites is critical to the assessment of environmental impact and to the development of effective
Polly, David
Agent-based collaborative product design engineering: an industrial case study
Globalization and rapid evolving of Internet and Web-based technologies have revolutionized the product development process. Engineering a product is a complex process involving the integration of distributed resources, such as human beings, engineering ... Keywords: collaboration, internet-aided design, product design engineering, software agents, workflow
Qi Hao; Weiming Shen; Zhan Zhang; Seong-Whan Park; Jai-Kyung Lee
Agent-based collaborative product design engineering: An industrial case study
Globalization and rapid evolving of Internet and Web-based technologies have revolutionized the product development process. Engineering a product is a complex process involving the integration of distributed resources, such as human beings, engineering ... Keywords: Collaboration, Internet-aided design, Product design engineering, Software agents, Workflow
Evaluation of a flowchart-based EHR query system: A case study of RetroGuide
Provision of query systems which are intuitive for non-experts has been recognized as an important informatics challenge. We developed a prototype of a flowchart-based analytical framework called RetroGuide that enables non-experts to formulate query ... Keywords: Biomedical informatics, Data warehouse, Evaluation, Informatics, Mixed-method, Query system, RetroGuide, SQL
Vojtech Huser; Scott P. Narus; Roberto A. Rocha
Verification & validation by docking: a case study of agent-based models of Anopheles gambiae
In this paper, using the technique of docking, we perform verification & validation (V&V) of agent-based simulation models that simulate the life cycle of Anopheles gambiae, the primary vector for malaria transmission. Working with one ... Keywords: Anopheles gambiae, docking, malaria epidemiology, verification & validation
S. M. Niaz Arifin; Gregory J. Davis; Ying Zhou
Modular analysis and modelling of risk scenarios with dependencies
The risk analysis of critical infrastructures such as the electric power supply or telecommunications is complicated by the fact that such infrastructures are mutually dependent. We propose a modular approach to the modelling and analysis of risk scenarios ... Keywords: Critical infrastructure, Dependency, Modular risk analysis, Risk scenario, Threat modelling
Gyrd Brćndeland; Atle Refsdal; Ketil Střlen
Statistical Analysis of Traffic Measurements in a Disaster Area Scenario
challenges of information sharing in OOH [Out-of-Hospital] disaster response."([1]) Performance evaluationStatistical Analysis of Traffic Measurements in a Disaster Area Scenario Considering Heavy Load-- Catastrophes cause an area of destruction including destroyed infrastructure. These disaster area scenarios
Frank, Matthias
Future technology oriented scenarios on e-accessibility
This paper presents a set of future scenarios as a part of our study which explores and analyzes the relationships between the emerging ICT landscape in the European societal and economic context, and the development and provision of e-Accessibility, ... Keywords: eaccessibility, future, scenario
Christos Kouroupetroglou; Adamantios Koumpis; Dimitris Papageorgiou
Report on Scenario Development and Analysis
of market-rational storage (based on present/forecasted cost of generation). 2. Demand-side: Load & other. Peak load and electricity consumption in 2018 will be calculated based on IRP3 growth projections, 2006, and residential and commercial load control and electrical and thermal energy storage programs. The Energy
(3) Framework for Identifying Key Environmental Concerns This is the first report in the sequence and describes the results of conceptual feasibility studies of wave power plants deployed in Humboldt County, California and Oahu, Hawaii. These two sites contain many of the same competing stakeholder interactions identified at other wave power sites in the U.S. and serve as representative case studies. Wave power remains at an early stage of development. As such, a wide range of different technologies are being pursued by different manufacturers. In order to properly characterize potential effects, it is useful to characterize the range of technologies that could be deployed at the site of interest. An industry survey informed the process of selecting representative wave power devices. The selection criteria requires that devices are at an advanced stage of development to reduce technical uncertainties, and that enough data are available from the manufacturers to inform the conceptual design process of this study. Further, an attempt is made to cover the range of different technologies under development to capture variations in potential environmental effects. Table 1 summarizes the selected wave power technologies. A number of other developers are also at an advanced stage of development, but are not directly mentioned here. Many environmental effects will largely scale with the size of the wave power plant. In many cases, the effects of a single device may not be measurable, while larger scale device arrays may have cumulative impacts that differ significantly from smaller scale deployments. In order to characterize these effects, scenarios are established at three deployment scales which nominally represent (1) a small pilot deployment, (2) a small commercial deployment, and (3) a large commercial sc
Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS) | Open Energy Information
(Redirected from CIFF-Chile-Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS)) (Redirected from CIFF-Chile-Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS)) Jump to: navigation, search Logo: Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS) Name Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS) Agency/Company /Organization The Children's Investment Fund Foundation, SouthSouthNorth, University of Cape Town-Energy Research Centre, Danish Government Sector Climate, Energy Topics Baseline projection, Low emission development planning, -LEDS, -NAMA, Pathways analysis Website http://www.mapsprogramme.org Program Start 2010 Program End 2013 Country Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Peru, South Africa South America, South America, South America, South America, South America, Southern Africa References Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS)[1]
Argentina-Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS) | Open Energy
Argentina-Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS) Argentina-Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS) Jump to: navigation, search Logo: Argentina-Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS) Name Argentina-Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS) Agency/Company /Organization The Children's Investment Fund Foundation, SouthSouthNorth, University of Cape Town-Energy Research Centre, Danish Government Sector Climate, Energy Topics Baseline projection, Low emission development planning, -LEDS, -NAMA, Pathways analysis Website http://www.mapsprogramme.org Program Start 2010 Program End 2013 Country Argentina South America References Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS)[1] Contents 1 Overview 2 MAPS Processes and Outcomes 2.1 Chile 2.2 Colombia 2.3 Peru 2.4 Brazil 2.5 Resources 2.5.1 Mitigation Action Country Studies
Colombia-Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS) | Open Energy
Colombia-Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS) Colombia-Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS) Jump to: navigation, search Logo: Colombia-Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS) Name Colombia-Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS) Agency/Company /Organization The Children's Investment Fund Foundation, SouthSouthNorth, University of Cape Town-Energy Research Centre, Danish Government Sector Climate, Energy Topics Baseline projection, Low emission development planning, -LEDS, -NAMA, Pathways analysis Website http://www.mapsprogramme.org Program Start 2010 Program End 2013 Country Colombia South America References Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS)[1] Contents 1 Overview 2 MAPS Processes and Outcomes 2.1 Chile 2.2 Colombia 2.3 Peru 2.4 Brazil 2.5 Resources 2.5.1 Mitigation Action Country Studies
Brazil-Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS) | Open Energy
Brazil-Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS) Brazil-Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS) Jump to: navigation, search Logo: Brazil-Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS) Name Brazil-Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS) Agency/Company /Organization The Children's Investment Fund Foundation, SouthSouthNorth, University of Cape Town-Energy Research Centre, Danish Government Sector Climate, Energy Topics Baseline projection, Low emission development planning, -LEDS, -NAMA, Pathways analysis Website http://www.mapsprogramme.org Program Start 2010 Program End 2013 Country Brazil South America References Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS)[1] Contents 1 Overview 2 MAPS Processes and Outcomes 2.1 Chile 2.2 Colombia 2.3 Peru 2.4 Brazil 2.5 Resources 2.5.1 Mitigation Action Country Studies
Summary of student scenarios: 2020 Vision project, fiscal year 1997
The Strategic Issues Thinking: 2020 Vision project introduces students and teaches to national security issues through the techniques of scenario building, and engages them in an interactive process of creating scenarios relevant to the Department of Energy, Defense Programs (DOE/DP). Starting with the world as it is today, teams of students develop a series of scenarios on international developments over the next 25 years under various circumstances. This report identifies recurrent themes in the student`s scenarios, lists creative ways the students presented their scenarios, compares and contrasts the program`s FY97 results with FY96 results, identifies the benefits of the program, and offers a glimpse of Sandia`s future plans for the 2020 Vision project.
Gordon, K.W.; Munoz, A.; Scott, K.P.; Rinne, R.
An economic assessment of the impact of two crude oil price scenarios on households
The impact of two possible future crude oil price scenarios -- high and low price cases -- is assessed for three population groups: majority (non-Hispanic and nonblack), black, and Hispanic. The two price scenarios were taken from the energy security'' report published by the US Department of Energy in 1987. Effects of the two crude oil price scenarios for the 1986--95 period are measured for energy demand and composition and for share of income spent on energy by the three population groups at both the national and census-region levels. The effects on blacks are marginally more adverse than on majority householders, while effects on Hispanics are about the same as those on the majority. Little change is seen in percentage of income spent on energy over the forecast period. Both Hispanic and black households would spend a larger share of their incomes on energy than would majority households. The relatively adverse effects in the higher price scenario shift from the South and West Census regions to the Northeast and Midwest. 24 refs., 7 figs., 22 tabs.
Poyer, D.A.; Teotia, A.P.S.; Hemphill, R.C.; Hill, L.G.; Marinelli, J.L.; Rose, K.J.; Santini, D.J.
An Interactive Case Study in Composite Failure Analysis
In the case study, the audience will be presented with the failure scenario and key ... Advanced Digital Microscopy is Revolutionizing Failure Analysis.
Technology and Greenhouse Gas Emissions: An IntegratedScenario Analysis
This report describes an analysis of possible technology-based scenarios for the U.S. energy system that would result in both carbon savings and net economic benefits. We use a modified version of the Energy Information Administration's National Energy Modeling System (LBNL-NEMS) to assess the potential energy, carbon, and bill savings from a portfolio of carbon saving options. This analysis is based on technology resource potentials estimated in previous bottom-up studies, but it uses the integrated LBNL-NEMS framework to assess interactions and synergies among these options. The analysis in this paper builds on previous estimates of possible "technology paths" to investigate four major components of an aggressive greenhouse gas reduction strategy: (1) the large scale implementation of demand-side efficiency, comparable in scale to that presented in two recent policy studies on this topic; (2) a variety of "alternative" electricity supply-side options, including biomass cofiring, extension of the renewable production tax credit for wind, increased industrial cogeneration, and hydropower refurbishment. (3) the economic retirement of older and less efficient existing fossil-find power plants; and (4) a permit charge of $23 per metric ton of carbon (1996 $/t),l assuming that carbon trading is implemented in the US, and that the carbon permit charge equilibrates at this level. This level of carbon permit charge, as discussed later in the report, is in the likely range for the Clinton Administration's position on this topic.
Koomey, J.G.; Latiner, S.; Markel, R.J.; Marnay, C.; Richey, R.C.
Analysis of Two Biomass Gasification/Fuel Cell Scenarios for Small-Scale Power Generation
Two scenarios were examined for small-scale electricity production from biomass using a gasifier/fuel cell system. In one case, a stand-alone BCL/FERC gasifier is used to produce synthesis gas that is reformed and distributed through a pipeline network to individual phosphoric acid fuel cells. In the second design, the gasifier is integrated with a molten carbonate fuel cell stack and a steam bottoming cycle. In both cases, the gasifiers are fed the same amount of material, with the integrated system producing 4 MW of electricity, and the stand-alone design generating 2 MW of electricity.
Amos, W. A.
GIS-Based Infrastructure Modeling
GIS-Based Infrastructure Modeling Hydrogen Scenario Meeting August 9-10, 2006 Keith Parks, NREL GIS-Based Infrastructure Modeling * Station Analysis - Selection Criteria - Los...
terms of California's 16 climate zones (based upon the CEC'sis divided into 16 climate zones to account for variablelevel, in terms of climate zones for electricity, and in
Ground-Based Remote Sensing of Cloud Particle Sizes during the 26 November 1991 FIRE II Cirrus Case: Comparisons with In Situ Data
The paper presents the results of retrieving characteristic particle sizes for the November 26 1991 FIRE II case using two methods that utilize ground-based remotes sensors. The size information for the complete vertical depth of the cloud was ...
S. Y. Matrosov; A. J. Heymsfield; J. M. Intrieri; B. W. Orr; J. B. Snider
Toward a national plan for the commercialization of solar energy: price/demand scenarios and projections of solar utilization under the National Energy Act
Three macroeconomic scenarios were developed as an economic backdrop for projecting solar technology market acceptance under various government policies and commercialization programs. These scenarios assume three levels of future world oil prices - $18, $25 and $32 per barrel (1976 $) in the year 2000. This range is intended to encompass the most likely set of energy futures. The scenarios are discussed in terms of their underlying assumptions and changes in fuel and resource consumption by sector of the economy. Estimates of the future utilization of solar technologies for the mid-price scenarios are given. These estimates are based on the solar subsidies and incentive programs in the National Energy Act.
Rebibo, K. K.
Low Carbon Society Scenarios Towards 2050 | Open Energy Information
Low Carbon Society Scenarios Towards 2050 Low Carbon Society Scenarios Towards 2050 Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Low Carbon Society Scenarios Towards 2050 Agency/Company /Organization: National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES) Sector: Energy Focus Area: Renewable Energy, Non-renewable Energy, Economic Development, Energy Efficiency, People and Policy, Solar Phase: Create a Vision, Determine Baseline, Evaluate Options, Develop Goals Topics: Adaptation, Baseline projection, GHG inventory, Implementation, Low emission development planning, -LEDS, Pathways analysis, Policies/deployment programs, Resource assessment Resource Type: Guide/manual, Lessons learned/best practices, Publications, Training materials Website: 2050.nies.go.jp/report.html Cost: Free
Hidden Higgs Scenarios: new constraints and prospects at the LHC
We review the motivation for hidden Higgs scenarios and discuss the light CP odd Higgs scenario in the NMSSM as an example. We summarize experimental constraints including recent limits from BaBar and Aleph. The main part of the talk is the discussion of dominant decay modes of the standard model like Higgs boson, and related decay modes of the charged Higgs and heavy CP even Higgs bosons, in these scenarios with the focus on signatures and prospects for the LHC. Examples include the direct production of a light CP odd Higgs boson, and a light charged Higgs boson in top quark decays.
Radovan Dermisek
Eastern Gulf Coastal Plain: a scenario for geothermal energy development
A scenario for the development of potential geothermal resources in the Eastern Gulf Coastal Plain states of Mississippi, Alabama and Florida is explained and discussed. A description of the resources and the nature of the potential applications and energy market in this region are given. A ranking of the resources as to their energy content, potential market, etc., is described, and the assumptions and strategy used to generate the scenario are discussed. A more complete report on the detailed aspects involved in the preparation of the development scenario will be issued in the near future.
Not Available
Scenarios Evaluation Tool for Chlorinated Solvent MNA
Over the past three decades, much progress has been made in the remediation of chlorinated solvents from the subsurface. Yet these pervasive contaminants continue to present a significant challenge to the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), other federal agencies, and other public and private organizations. The physical and chemical properties of chlorinated solvents make it difficult to rapidly reach the low concentrations typically set as regulatory limits. These technical challenges often result in high costs and long remediation time frames. In 2003, the DOE through the Office of Environmental Management funded a science-based technical project that uses the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's technical protocol (EPA, 1998) and directives (EPA, 1999) on Monitored Natural Attenuation (MNA) as the foundation on which to introduce supporting concepts and new scientific developments that will support remediation of chlorinated solvents based on natural attenuation processes. This project supports the direction in which many site owners want to move to complete the remediation of their site(s), that being to complete the active treatment portion of the remedial effort and transition into MNA. The overarching objective of the effort was to examine environmental remedies that are based on natural processes--remedies such as Monitored Natural Attenuation (MNA) or Enhanced Attenuation (EA). The research program did identify several specific opportunities for advances based on: (1) mass balance as the central framework for attenuation based remedies, (2) scientific advancements and achievements during the past ten years, (3) regulatory and policy development and real-world experience using MNA, and (4) exploration of various ideas for integrating attenuation remedies into a systematic set of ''combined remedies'' for contaminated sites. These opportunities are summarized herein and are addressed in more detail in referenced project documents and journal articles, as well as in the technical and regulatory documents being developed within the ITRC.
Vangelas, Karen; Michael J. Truex; Charles J. Newell; Brian Looney
Preliminary analysis of the induced structural radioactivity inventory of the base-case aqueous accelerator transmutation of waste reactor concept
The purpose of the Los Alamos National Laboratory Accelerator Transmutation of (Nuclear) Waste (ATW) project is the substantial reduction in volume of long-lived high-level radioactive waste of the US in a safe and energy-efficient manner. An evaluation of the ATW concept has four aspects: material balance, energy balance, performance, and cost. An evaluation of the material balance compares the amount of long-lived high-level waste transmuted with the amount and type, of waste created in the process. One component of the material balance is the activation of structural materials over the lifetime of the transmutation reactor. A preliminary radioactivity and radioactive mass balance analysis has been performed on four structure regions of the reaction chamber: the tungsten target, the lead annulus, six tubing materials carrying the actinide slurry, and five reaction vessel structural materials. The amount of radioactive material remaining after a 100-yr cooling period for the base-case ATW was found to be 338 kg of radionuclides. The bulk of this material (313 kg) was generated in the zirconium-niobium (Zr-Nb) actinide tubing material. Replacement of the Zr-Nb tubing material with one of the alternative tubing materials analyzed would significantly reduce the short- and long-term radioactive mass produced. The alternative vessel material Al-6061 alloys, Tenelon, HT-9, and 2 1/4 Cr-1 Mo and the alternative actinide tubing materials Al-6061 alloy, carbon-carbon matrix, silicon carbide, and Ti-6 Al-4 V qualify for shallow land burial. Alternative disposal options for the base-case structural material Type 304L stainless steel and the actinide tubing material Zr-Nb will need to be considered as neither qualifies for shallow land burial.
Bezdecny, J.A.; Vance, K.M.; Henderson, D.L. [Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States). Dept. of Nuclear Engineering and Engineering Physics
Mapping Climate Change Vulnerability and Impact Scenarios - A Guidebook for
Mapping Climate Change Vulnerability and Impact Scenarios - A Guidebook for Mapping Climate Change Vulnerability and Impact Scenarios - A Guidebook for Sub-national Planners Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary Name: Mapping Climate Change Vulnerability and Impact Scenarios - A Guidebook for Sub-national Planners Agency/Company /Organization: United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) Resource Type: Guide/manual Website: www.beta.undp.org/content/dam/aplaws/publication/en/publications/envir Language: English Mapping Climate Change Vulnerability and Impact Scenarios - A Guidebook for Sub-national Planners Screenshot This guidebook assists planners working at the sub-national levels to identify and map the nature of current and future vulnerability to long-term climate change so that appropriate policies and intervention can
Chile-Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS) | Open Energy
Page Page Edit with form History Facebook icon Twitter icon » Chile-Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS) Jump to: navigation, search Logo: Chile-Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS) Name Chile-Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS) Agency/Company /Organization The Children's Investment Fund Foundation, SouthSouthNorth, University of Cape Town-Energy Research Centre, Danish Government Sector Climate, Energy Topics Baseline projection, Low emission development planning, -LEDS, -NAMA, Pathways analysis Website http://www.mapsprogramme.org Program Start 2010 Program End 2013 Country Chile South America References Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS)[1] Contents 1 Overview 2 MAPS Processes and Outcomes 2.1 Chile 2.2 Colombia 2.3 Peru
A Method for Evaluating Fire after Earthquake Scenarios for Single...
DOENNSA LANS Company Sensitive - unauthorized release or dissemination prohibited U N C L A S S I F I E D A Method for Evaluating Fire After Earthquake Scenarios for Single...
Generating Scenarios of Local Surface Temperature Using Time Series Methods
A method for creating scenarios of time series of monthly mean surface temperature at a specific site is developed. It is postulated that surface temperature can be specified as a linear combination of regional and local temperature components, ...
Robert S. Chen; Peter J. Robinson
Climate Change Scenarios for the U.S. National Assessment
In support of the U.S. National Assessment of the Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change, climate scenarios were prepared to serve as the basis for evaluating the vulnerability of environmental and societal systems to changes ...
Michael C. Maccracken; Eric J. Barron; David R. Easterling; Benjamin S. Felzer; Thomas R. Karl
The U.S. Department of Energy sponsored a 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure Meeting in Washington, DC, on August 9-10, 2006. The...
The U.S. Department of Energy sponsored a 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure Meeting in Washington, DC, on January 31, 2007. This third...
Over the past three decades, much progress has been made in the remediation of chlorinated solvents from the subsurface. Yet these pervasive contaminants continue to present a significant challenge to the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), other federal agencies, and other public and private organizations. The physical and chemical properties of chlorinated solvents make it difficult to rapidly reach the low concentrations typically set as regulatory limits. These technical challenges often result in high costs and long remediation time frames. In 2003, the DOE through the Office of Environmental Management funded a science-based technical project that uses the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's technical protocol (EPA, 1998) and directives (EPA, 1999) on Monitored Natural Attenuation (MNA) as the foundation on which to introduce supporting concepts and new scientific developments that will support remediation of chlorinated solvents based on natural attenuation processes. This project supports the direction in which many site owners want to move to complete the remediation of their site(s), that being to complete the active treatment portion of the remedial effort and transition into MNA. The overarching objective of the effort was to examine environmental remedies that are based on natural processes--remedies such as Monitored Natural Attenuation (MNA) or Enhanced Attenuation (EA). The research program did identify several specific opportunities for advances based on: (1) mass balance as the central framework for attenuation based remedies, (2) scientific advancements and achievements during the past ten years, (3) regulatory and policy development and real-world experience using MNA, and (4) exploration of various ideas for integrating attenuation remedies into a systematic set of ''combined remedies'' for contaminated sites. These opportunities are summarized herein and are addressed in more detail in referenced project documents and journal articles, as well as in the technical and regulatory documents being developed within the ITRC. Three topic areas were identified for development during this project. These areas are: mass balance, Enhanced Attenuation (EA), and new characterization and monitoring tools and approaches to support MNA and EA. Each of these topics is documented in stand alone reports, WSRC-STI-2006-00082, WSRC-STI-2006-00083, and WSRC-STI-2006-00084, respectively. In brief, the mass balance efforts are examining methods and tools to allow a site to be evaluated in terms of a system where the inputs and processes within the system are compared to the outputs from the system, as well as understanding what attenuation processes may be occurring and how likely they are to occur within a system. Enhanced Attenuation is a new concept that is a transition step between primary treatments and MNA, when the natural attenuation processes are not sufficient to allow direct transition from the primary treatment to MNA. EA technologies are designed to either boost the level of the natural attenuation processes or decrease the loading of contaminants to the system for a period of time sufficient to allow the remedial goals to be met over the long-term. For characterization and monitoring, a phased approach based on documenting the site specific mass balance was developed. Tools and techniques to support the approach included direct measures of the biological processes and various tools to support cost-effective long-term monitoring of systems where the natural attenuation processes are the main treatment remedies. The effort revealed opportunities for integrating attenuation mechanisms into a systematic set of ''combined remedies'' for contaminated sites.
Vangelas, K; Brian02 Looney, B; Michael J. Truex; Charles J. Newell
Economic Modeling of Mid-Term Electric Generation Scenarios
The type and stringency of environmental mandates and carbon regulation in the next 10 years continue to be a topic of substantial uncertainty and debate. This study applies a model-based approach for exploring the potential magnitude of shifts in electric generation trends that could occur over a broad range of future environmental regulatory outcomes. Cases examined include a path of stringent environmental regulations, a high cost carbon policy, and their combination. This study is a follow-on modelin...
A formal framework for scenario development in support of environmental decision-making
Scenarios are possible future states of the world that represent alternative plausible conditions under different assumptions. Often, scenarios are developed in a context relevant to stakeholders involved in their applications since the evaluation of ... Keywords: Alternative futures, Decision-making, Scenario analysis, Scenario planning, Scenarios, Uncertainty
Mohammed Mahmoud; Yuqiong Liu; Holly Hartmann; Steven Stewart; Thorsten Wagener; Darius Semmens; Robert Stewart; Hoshin Gupta; Damian Dominguez; Francina Dominguez; David Hulse; Rebecca Letcher; Brenda Rashleigh; Court Smith; Roger Street; Jenifer Ticehurst; Mark Twery; Hedwig van Delden; Ruth Waldick; Denis White; Larry Winter
Integrated modelling of steady-state scenarios and heating and current drive mixes for ITER
Recent progress on ITER steady-state (SS) scenario modelling by the ITPA-IOS group is reviewed. Code-to-code benchmarks as the IOS group's common activities for the two SS scenarios (weak shear scenario and internal transport barrier scenario) are discussed in terms of transport, kinetic profiles, and heating and current drive (CD) sources using various transport codes. Weak magnetic shear scenarios integrate the plasma core and edge by combining a theory-based transport model (GLF23) with scaled experimental boundary profiles. The edge profiles (at normalized radius rho = 0.8-1.0) are adopted from an edge-localized mode-averaged analysis of a DIII-D ITER demonstration discharge. A fully noninductive SS scenario is achieved with fusion gain Q = 4.3, noninductive fraction f(NI) = 100%, bootstrap current fraction f(BS) = 63% and normalized beta beta(N) = 2.7 at plasma current I(p) = 8MA and toroidal field B(T) = 5.3 T using ITER day-1 heating and CD capability. Substantial uncertainties come from outside the radius of setting the boundary conditions (rho = 0.8). The present simulation assumed that beta(N)(rho) at the top of the pedestal (rho = 0.91) is about 25% above the peeling-ballooning threshold. ITER will have a challenge to achieve the boundary, considering different operating conditions (T(e)/T(i) approximate to 1 and density peaking). Overall, the experimentally scaled edge is an optimistic side of the prediction. A number of SS scenarios with different heating and CD mixes in a wide range of conditions were explored by exploiting the weak-shear steady-state solution procedure with the GLF23 transport model and the scaled experimental edge. The results are also presented in the operation space for DT neutron power versus stationary burn pulse duration with assumed poloidal flux availability at the beginning of stationary burn, indicating that the long pulse operation goal (3000s) at I(p) = 9 MA is possible. Source calculations in these simulations have been revised for electron cyclotron current drive including parallel momentum conservation effects and for neutral beam current drive with finite orbit and magnetic pitch effects.
Murakami, Masanori [ORNL; Park, Jin Myung [ORNL
Analysis of Concentrating Solar Power with Thermal Energy Storage in a California 33% Renewable Scenario
This analysis evaluates CSP with TES in a scenario where California derives 33% of its electricity from renewable energy sources. It uses a commercial grid simulation tool to examine the avoided operational and capacity costs associated with CSP and compares this value to PV and a baseload generation with constant output. Overall, the analysis demonstrates several properties of dispatchable CSP, including the flexibility to generate during periods of high value and avoid generation during periods of lower value. Of note in this analysis is the fact that significant amount of operational value is derived from the provision of reserves in the case where CSP is allowed to provide these services. This analysis also indicates that the 'optimal' configuration of CSP could vary as a function of renewable penetration, and each configuration will need to be evaluated in terms of its ability to provide dispatchable energy, reserves, and firm capacity. The model can be used to investigate additional scenarios involving alternative technology options and generation mixes, applying these scenarios within California or in other regions of interest.
Denholm, P.; Wan, Y. H.; Hummon, M.; Mehos, M.
Integrated Analysis of Market Transformation Scenarios with HyTrans
This report presents alternative visions of the transition of light-duty vehicle transportation in the United States from petroleum to hydrogen power. It is a supporting document to the U.S. Department of Energy's Summary Report, "Analysis of the Transition to a Hydrogen Economy and the Potential Hydrogen Infrastructure Requirements" (U.S. DOE, 2007). Three alternative early transition scenarios were analyzed using a market simulation model called HyTrans. The HyTrans model simultaneously represents the behavior of fuel suppliers, vehicle manufacturers and consumers, explicitly recognizing the importance of fuel availability and the diversity of vehicle choices to consumers, and dependence of fuel supply on the existence of market demand. Competitive market outcomes are simulated by means of non-linear optimization of social surplus through the year 2050. The three scenarios specify different rates and geographical distributions of market penetration for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles from 2012 through 2025. Scenario 1 leads to 2 million vehicles on U.S. roads by 2025, while Scenarios 2 and 3 result in 5 million and 10 million FCVs in use by 2025, respectively. The HyTrans model "costs out" the transition scenarios and alternative policies for achieving them. It then tests whether the scenarios, together with the achievement of the DOE's technology goals for fuel cell vehicles and hydrogen infrastructure technologies could lead to a sustainable transition to hydrogen powered transportation. Given the achievement of DOE's ambitious technology goals, all three scenarios appear to lead to a sustainable transition to hydrogen. In the absence of early transition deployment effort, no transition is likely to begin before 2045. The cumulative costs of the transition scenarios to the government range from $8 billion to $45 billion, depending on the scenario, the policies adopted and the degree of cost-sharing with industry. In the absence of carbon constraining policies, the transition to hydrogen achieves about the same reduction in CO2 emissions as a transition to advanced gasoline-electric hybrid vehicles. With significant carbon policy, drastic reductions in well-to-wheel CO2 emissions are possible. Energy transition modeling is a newly evolving field and much remains to be done to improve the utility of models like HyTrans.
Greene, David L [ORNL; Leiby, Paul Newsome [ORNL; Bowman, David Charles [ORNL
Economically consistent long-term scenarios for air pollutant emissions
Pollutant emissions such as aerosols and tropospheric ozone precursors substantially influence climate. While future century-scale scenarios for these emissions have become more realistic through the inclusion of emission controls, they still potentially lack consistency between surface pollutant concentrations and regional levels of affluence. We demonstrate a methodology combining use of an integrated assessment model and a three-dimensional atmospheric chemical transport model, whereby a reference scenario is constructed by requiring consistent surface pollutant levels as a function of regional income over the 21st century. By adjusting air pollutant emission control parameters, we improve agreement between modeled PM2.5 and economic income among world regions through time; agreement for ozone is also improved but is more difficult to achieve because of the strong influence of upwind world regions. The scenario examined here was used as the basis for one of the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. This analysis methodology could also be used to examine the consistency of other pollutant emission scenarios.
Smith, Steven J.; West, Jason; Kyle, G. Page
A Dark Energy Model with Generalized Uncertainty Principle in the Emergent, Intermediate and Logamediate Scenarios of the Universe
This work is motivated by the work of Kim et al (2008), which considered the equation of state parameter for the new agegraphic dark energy based on generalized uncertainty principle coexisting with dark matter without interaction. In this work, we have considered the same dark energy inter- acting with dark matter in emergent, intermediate and logamediate scenarios of the universe. Also, we have investigated the statefinder, kerk and lerk parameters in all three scenarios under this inter- action. The energy density and pressure for the new agegraphic dark energy based on generalized uncertainty principle have been calculated and their behaviors have been investigated. The evolu- tion of the equation of state parameter has been analyzed in the interacting and non-interacting situations in all the three scenarios. The graphical analysis shows that the dark energy behaves like quintessence era for logamediate expansion and phantom era for emergent and intermediate expansions of the universe.
Rahul Ghosh; Surajit Chattopadhyay; Ujjal Debnath
Scenario HELP Index Summary Scenario Internet Links Student Pages In third grade in St. Charles, Illinois the curriculum is integrated around the theme of community. The children...
Enduse Global Emissions Mitigation Scenarios (EGEMS): A New Generation of Energy Efficiency Policy Planning Models
of Carbon Dioxide Emissions on GNP Growth: Interpretation ofMcNeil et al Enduse Global Emissions Mitigation Scenarios (Keywords Greenhouse gas emissions, emissions scenarios,
McNeil, Michael A.
Transition Strategies: Government Options and Market Penetration Scenarios
Transition Strategies Transition Strategies Possible Range of Government Support Options * Hydrogen Fuel Initiative - 2015 commercialization decision * 2015 commercialization decision - 1000s of cars by 2015, and 10,000s of cars by 2018 * 2015 commercialization decision, 100,000s of cars by 2018 * 2010 commercialization decision, 10,000s of cars by 2015 and 100,000s of cars by 2018 * 2010 commercialization decision, 100,000s of cars by 2016 and millions by 2021. These scenarios are provided for transition analyses as recommended by the National Research Council to evaluate the transition phase and do not represent any specific policy recommendation. 3 Market Penetration Scenarios The following scenarios represent the estimated penetration of hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles (HFCV) given different government incentives:
Scenario Modelling: A Holistic Environmental and Energy Management
Scenario Modelling: A Holistic Environmental and Energy Management Scenario Modelling: A Holistic Environmental and Energy Management Technique for Building Managers Speaker(s): James O'Donnell Date: September 30, 2010 - 12:00pm Location: 90-3122 Seminar Host/Point of Contact: Vladimir Bazjanac At the operational level of organisations, building managers most commonly evaluate environmental and energy performance. They originate from a variety of technical and non-technical backgrounds with corresponding experiences, knowledge and skill sets. The profile of building managers as established in this work accounts for this diverse variation. Building performance data and information that is typically available for the established profile of building managers is insufficient for optimum operation. This presentaion presents the scenario modelling technique
Security Implications of Typical Grid Computing Usage Scenarios
A Computational Grid is a collection of heterogeneous computers and resources spread across multiple administrative domains with the intent of providing users uniform access to these resources. There are many ways to access the resources of a Computational Grid, each with unique security requirements and implications for both the resource user and the resource provider. A comprehensive set of Grid usage scenarios are presented and analyzed with regard to security requirements such as authentication, authorization, integrity, and confidentiality. The main value of these scenarios and the associated security discussions are to provide a library of situations against which an application designer can match, thereby facilitating security-aware application use and development from the initial stages of the application design and invocation. A broader goal of these scenarios are to increase the awareness of security issues in Grid Computing.
Humphrey, Marty; Thompson, Mary R.
Adapting a Beam-Based Rotordynamics Model to Accept a General Three-Dimensional Finite-Element Casing Model
The subject of this thesis is an extension of a two-dimensional, axisymmetric, Timoshenko-beam finite-element rotordynamic code to include a three-dimensional non-axisymmetric solid-element casing model. Axisymmetric beams are sufficient to model rotors. Spring and damper forces provide the interface between the rotor and its casing and capture the dynamics of the full model. However, axisymmetric beams limit the modeling of real-case machine structures, where the casing is not axisymmetric. Axisymmetric and non-axisymmetric 3D finite element casing structures are modeled. These structures are then reduced using a technique called substructuring. Modal equations are developed for axisymmetric and non-axisymmetric casing models. In a 3D non-axisymmetric model, structural dynamics modes can be modeled by lateral modes in two orthogonal planes. Modal information of the complex 3D casing structures are generated, and then incorporated into the 2D code after a series of pre-processing steps. A reduction method called Component Mode Synthesis (CMS) is used to reduce the large dimensionality involved in calculation of rotordynamic coefficients. The results from the casing structures are merged with the rotor model to create a combined rotor-casing model. The analysis of the combined structure shows that there is a difference in the natural frequencies and unbalance response between the model that uses symmetrical casing and the one that uses non-axisymmetric casing. XLTRC2 is used as an example of a two-dimensional axisymmetric beam-element code. ANSYS is used as a code to build three-dimensional non-axisymmetric solid-element casing models. The work done in this thesis opens the scope to incorporate complex non-axisymmetric casing models with XLTRC2.
James, Stephen M.
A Comparison of Proliferation Resistance Measures of Misuse Scenarios Using a Markov Approach
Misuse of declared nuclear facilities is one of the important proliferation threats. The robustness of a facility against these threats is characterized by a number of proliferation resistance (PR) measures. This paper evaluates and compares PR measures for several misuse scenarios using a Markov model approach to implement the pathway analysis methodology being developed by the PR&PP (Proliferation Resistance and Physical Protection) Expert Group. Different misue strategies can be adopted by a proliferator and each strategy is expected to have different impacts on the proliferator's success. Selected as the probabilistic measure to represent proliferation resistance, the probabilities of the proliferator's success of misusing a hypothetical ESFR (Example Sodium Fast Reactor) facility system are calculated using the Markov model based on the pathways constructed for individual misuse scenarios. Insights from a comparison of strategies that are likely to be adopted by the proliferator are discussed in this paper.
Yue,M.; Cheng, L.-Y.; Bari, R.
Scenario for a Magnitude 6.7 Earthquake
Institute and the Washington Military Department Emergency Management Division June 2005 #12;#12;Scenario for a Magnitude 6.7 Earthquake on the Seattle Fault Earthquake Engineering Research Institute and the Washington Street, Suite 320 Oakland, CA 94612-1934 USA Washington Military Department, Emergency Management
Wilcock, William
STIMO: STIll and MOving video storyboard for the web scenario
In the current Web scenario a video browsing tool that produces on-the-fly storyboards is more and more a need. Video summary techniques can be helpful but, due to their long processing time, they are usually unsuitable for on-the-fly usage. Therefore, ... Keywords: Clustering, Storyboards, Video browsing, Video summary
Marco Furini; Filippo Geraci; Manuela Montangero; Marco Pellegrini
California's Electricity System of the Future: Scenario Analysis in Support
Commission nor has the California Energy Commission passed upon the accuracy or adequacy of the information of a competitive electricity market. CERTS is currently conducting research for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOECalifornia's Electricity System of the Future: Scenario Analysis in Support of Public
Grid Computing consists of a collection of heterogeneous computers and resources spread across multiple administrative domains with the intent of providing users uniform access to these resources. There are many ways to access the resources of a Grid, ... Keywords: Global Grid Forum, Globus, Grid Computing, Legion, computer security, usage scenarios
Marty Humphrey; Mary R. Thompson
Scenarios for a Clean Energy Future Background 2.1
efficiency can decrease the "energy intensity" of the U.S. economy, thereby reducing carbon emissions. Energy zero energy growth over this 13-year period. Looking ahead, an actual decrease in U.S. energy that have made the U.S. economy much less energy intensive today than it was in #12;Scenarios for a Clean
iSee: interactive scenario explorer for online tournament games
Fantasy games, in which players compete to correctly predict real-world outcomes in sports, entertainment, and politics, have grown in popularity and now represent a significant portion of online gaming. Pick'em pools, also known as office pools, are ... Keywords: fantasy games, office pools, scenario exploration, tournament
Greg Smith; Desney Tan; Bongshin Lee
Exploring Humanoid Robots Locomotion Capabilities in Virtual Disaster Response Scenarios
Exploring Humanoid Robots Locomotion Capabilities in Virtual Disaster Response Scenarios Karim. INTRODUCTION Disaster response is attracting attention from the robotics research community, and even more by the DARPA's call on disaster operations. Hence, we focus on locomotion tasks that apparently require human
A comparison of standard evasion scenarios at near regional distances
We performed numerical simulations of three nuclear testing evasion scenarios. These calculations were done in two parts. The first part was done near source (within 10 km) with a non-linear weapons effects code. Particle velocity histories from the non-linear code were linked to an elastic linear finite-difference code for the second part. Seismic waveforms from the evasion scenario calculations were compared with the waveforms for a non-evasive explosion calculation at near regional distances. The results of this comparison suggest that it may be important to include realistic stratigraphy in such simulations: the overall wave amplitude in the present simulations is reduced by only a factor of 3-5 in contradiction to factors of 20-100 in {open_quotes}classical{close_quotes} decoupling analyses for ideal (i.e., unlayered) media. Two of the evasion scenarios simulated retain explosive waveform characteristics at near regional distances, while the third scenario indicates that certain source geometries might lead to more non-explosive (i.e., earthquake-like) seismic signals.
Bos, R.; App, F.; Jones, E.; Dey, T.; Kamm, J.
Creating interactive driver experiences with the scenario markup language
Serious games became an important device for increasing the awareness of issues that are important to society. One such issue is the environmental impact of driving. To support the training and wide promotion of eco-friendly driving, an appropriate platform ... Keywords: 3D virtual worlds, eco-friendly driving, markup languages, scenario programming
Kugamoorthy Gajananan; Eurico Doirado; Arturo Nakasone; Pedro Cuba; Helmut Prendinger; Marc Miska
Traffic Measurement and Statistical Analysis in a Disaster Area Scenario
-of-Hospital] disaster response."([5]) Public safety units need reliable communication independent of any inTraffic Measurement and Statistical Analysis in a Disaster Area Scenario Nils Aschenbruck, Matthias, 53117 Bonn, Germany {aschenbruck, matthew, martini, email@example.com Abstract-- Disaster areas
Managing Risk in Disaster Scenarios with Autonomous Robots
of damage. · The initial response to the disaster is limited to only those local rescue assets that have had some limited use in disaster response, most notably the responses led by the Center for Robot1 Managing Risk in Disaster Scenarios with Autonomous Robots Daniel P. Stormont and Vicki H. Allan
Allan, Vicki H.
Regionalized Global Energy Scenarios Meeting Stringent Climate Targets
to generate the energy supply mix that would meet given energy demands at lowest cost, assuming strongRegionalized Global Energy Scenarios Meeting Stringent Climate Targets  cost effective fuel in the energy system it is less costly to reduce CO2-emissions #12;Global energy system model #12;Global energy
Innovative Business Cases for Energy Storage In a Restructured Electricity Marketplace, A Study for the DOE Energy Storage Systems Program
This report describes the second phase of a project entitled ''Innovative Business Cases for Energy Storage in a Restructured Electricity Marketplace''. During part one of the effort, nine ''Stretch Scenarios'' were identified. They represented innovative and potentially significant uses of electric energy storage. Based on their potential to significantly impact the overall energy marketplace, the five most compelling scenarios were identified. From these scenarios, five specific ''Storage Market Opportunities'' (SMOs) were chosen for an in-depth evaluation in this phase. The authors conclude that some combination of the Power Cost Volatility and the T&D Benefits SMOs would be the most compelling for further investigation. Specifically, a combination of benefits (energy, capacity, power quality and reliability enhancement) achievable using energy storage systems for high value T&D applications, in regions with high power cost volatility, makes storage very competitive for about 24 GW and 120 GWh during the years of 2001 and 2010.
Reliable Muddle: Transportation Scenarios for the 80% Greenhouse Gas Reduction Goal for 2050 (Presentation)
Presentation describing transportation scenarios for meeting the 2050 DOE goal of reducing greenhouse gases by 80%.
Melaina, M.; Webster, K.
Scenario construction and reduction applied to stochastic power generation expansion planning
A challenging aspect of applying stochastic programming in a dynamic setting is to construct a set of discrete scenarios that well represents multivariate stochastic processes for uncertain parameters. Often this is done by generating a scenario tree ... Keywords: Power generation expansion planning, Scenario generation, Scenario reduction, Stochastic programming
Yonghan Feng; Sarah M. Ryan
The Importance of High Temporal Resolution in Modeling Renewable Energy Penetration Scenarios
Traditionally, modeling investment and dispatch problems in electricity economics has been limited by computation power. Due to this limitation, simplifications are applied. One common practice, for example, is to reduce the temporal resolution of the dispatch by clustering similar load levels. The increase of intermittent electricity from renewable energy sources (RES-E) changes the validity of this assumption. RES-E already cover a certain amount of the total demand. This leaves an increasingly volatile residual demand to be matched by the conventional power market. This paper quantifies differences in investment decisions by applying three different time-resolution residual load patterns in an investment and dispatch power system model. The model optimizes investment decisions in five year steps between today and 2030 with residual load levels for 8760, 288 and 16 time slices per year. The market under consideration is the four zone ERCOT market in Texas. The results show that investment decisions significantly differ across the three scenarios. In particular, investments into base-load technologies are substantially reduced in the high resolution scenario (8760 residual load levels) relative to the scenarios with lower temporal resolution. Additionally, the amount of RES-E curtailment and the market value of RES-E exhibit noteworthy differences.
Nicolosi, Marco; Mills, Andrew D; Wiser, Ryan H
Energy Flowchart Scenarios of Future U.S. Energy Use Incorporating Hydrogen Fueled Vehicles
This project has adapted LLNL energy flowcharts of historical U.S. energy use drawn from the DOE Energy Information Administration (EIA) data to include scenarios involving hydrogen use. A flexible automated process for preparing and drawing these flowcharts has also been developed. These charts show the flows of energy between primary sectors of the economy so that a user can quickly understand the major implications of a proposed scenario. The software can rapidly generate a spectrum of U.S. energy use scenarios in the 2005-2050 timeframe, both with and without a transition to hydrogen-fueled transportation. These scenarios indicate that fueling 100% of the light duty fleet in 2050 (318 million 80 mpg-equivalent compressed hydrogen fuel cell vehicles) will require approximately 100 million tonnes (10.7 quads) of H2/year, reducing petroleum use by at least 7.3 million barrels of oil/day (15.5 quads/yr). Linear extrapolation of EIA's 2025 reference projection to 2050 indicates approximate U.S. primary energy use of 180 quads/yr (in 2050) relative to current use of 97 quads/yr (comprising 39 quads/yr of petroleum). Full deployment of 50% efficient electricity generation technologies for coal and nuclear power and improvements in gasoline lightduty vehicle fleet fuel economy to 50 mpg would reduce projected U.S. primary energy consumption to 143 quads/yr in 2050, comprising 58 quads/yr (27 million bbl/day) of petroleum. Full deployment of H2 automobiles by 2050 could further reduce U.S. petroleum dependence to 43 quads/yr. These projections indicate that substantial steps beyond a transition to H2 light-duty vehicles will be necessary to reduce future U.S. petroleum dependence (and related greenhouse gases) below present levels. A flowchart projecting future U.S. energy flows depicting a complete transition by 2050 to compressed hydrogen light-duty vehicles is attached on the following page (corresponding to scenario 7 in the Appendix). It indicates that producing 100 billion kilograms of hydrogen fuel annually (10.7 quads/yr) from a balanced blend of primary energy sources will likely require 16.2 quads of primary energy input, with an additional 0.96 Quads of electricity for hydrogen storage. These energy flows are comparable to or smaller than projected growth in individual primary energy sources over the 2005-2050 timeframe except perhaps the case of windpower.
Berry, G; Daily III, W
A proposal for a new scenario framework to support research and assessment in different climate research communities
In this paper, we propose a scenario framework that could provide a scenario thread through the different climate research communities (climate change vulnerability, impact, and adaptation (VIA) and mitigation) in order to provide assessment of mitigation and adaptation strategies and other VIA challenges. The scenario framework is defined across two main axes. One is defined by the radiative forcing levels (climate signal) of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The second axis is defined by socio-economic development and comprises elements that affect the capacity for adaptation and mitigation but also exposure to climate impacts. The proposed set of scenarios derived from this framework are limited in number, allow for comparison across various mitigation and adaptation levels, address a range of vulnerability characteristics, provide information across climate forcing and vulnerability states and spans a full century time scale. Scenario assessment based on the proposed framework would strengthen cooperation between integrated-assessment modelers, climate modelers and the VIA research community, and most importantly, facilitate the development of more consistent and comparable research within and across communities.
Van Vuuren, Detlef; Riahi, Keywan; Moss, Richard H.; Edmonds, James A.; Thomson, Allison M.; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa; Kram, Tom; Berkhout, Frans; Swart, Robert; Janetos, Anthony C.; Rose, Steven K.; Arnell, Nigel
Inflationary scenario in the supersymmetric economical 3-3-1 model
We construct the supersymmetric economical 3-3-1 model which contains inflationary scenario and avoids the monopole puzzle. Based on the spontaneous symmetry breaking pattern (with three steps), the F-term inflation is derived. The slow-roll parameters element of and {eta} are calculated. By imposing as experimental five-year WMAP data on the spectral index n, we have derived a constraint on the number of e-folding N{sub Q} to be in the range from 25 to 50. The scenario for large-scale structure formation implied by the model is a mixed scenario for inflation and cosmic string, and the contribution to the CMBR temperature anisotropy depends on the ratio M{sub X}/M{sub Pl}. From the COBE data, we have obtained the constraint on the M{sub X} to be M{sub X} element of [1.22 x 10{sup 16}, 0.98 x 10{sup 17}] GeV. The upper value M{sub X} {approx_equal} 10{sup 17} GeV is a result of the analysis in which the inflationary contribution to the temperature fluctuations measured by the COBE is 90%. The coupling {alpha} varies in the range: 10{sup -7}-10{sup -1}. This value is not so small, and it is a common characteristics of the supersymmetric unified models with the inflationary scenario. The spectral index n is a little bit smaller than 0.98. The SUGRA corrections are slightly different from the previous consideration. When {xi} << 1 and {alpha} lies in the above range, the spectral index gets the value consistent with the experimental five-year WMAP data. Comparing with string theory, one gets {xi} < 10{sup -8}. Numerical analysis shows that {alpha} {approx} 10{sup -6}. To get inflation contribution to the CMBR temperature anisotropy {approx}90%, the mass scale M{sub X} < 3.5 x 10{sup 14} GeV.
Huong, D. T., E-mail: firstname.lastname@example.com; Long, H. N., E-mail: firstname.lastname@example.com [Institute of Physics (Viet Nam)
Scenario Driven Data Modelling: A Method for Integrating Diverse Sources of Data and Data Streams
Background Biology is rapidly becoming a data intensive, data-driven science. It is essential that data is represented and connected in ways that best represent its full conceptual content and allows both automated integration and data driven decision-making. Recent advancements in distributed multi-relational directed graphs, implemented in the form of the Semantic Web make it possible to deal with complicated heterogeneous data in new and interesting ways. Results This paper presents a new approach, scenario driven data modelling (SDDM), that integrates multi-relational directed graphs with data streams. SDDM can be applied to virtually any data integration challenge with widely divergent types of data and data streams. In this work, we explored integrating genetics data with reports from traditional media. SDDM was applied to the New Delhi metallo-beta-lactamase gene (NDM-1), an emerging global health threat. The SDDM process constructed a scenario, created a RDF multi-relational directed graph that linked diverse types of data to the Semantic Web, implemented RDF conversion tools (RDFizers) to bring content into the Sematic Web, identified data streams and analytical routines to analyse those streams, and identified user requirements and graph traversals to meet end-user requirements. Conclusions We provided an example where SDDM was applied to a complex data integration challenge. The process created a model of the emerging NDM-1 health threat, identified and filled gaps in that model, and constructed reliable software that monitored data streams based on the scenario derived multi-relational directed graph. The SDDM process significantly reduced the software requirements phase by letting the scenario and resulting multi-relational directed graph define what is possible and then set the scope of the user requirements. Approaches like SDDM will be critical to the future of data intensive, data-driven science because they automate the process of converting massive data streams into usable knowledge.
Griffith, Shelton D [ORNL; Quest, Daniel J [ORNL; Brettin, Thomas S [ORNL; Cottingham, Robert W [ORNL
Electric dipole moments of charged leptons in the split fermion scenario in the two Higgs doublet model
We predict the charged lepton electric dipole moments in the split fermion scenario in the framework of the two Higgs doublet model. We observe that the numerical value of the muon (tau) electric dipole moment is at the order of the magnitude of $10^{-22} (e-cm)$ ($10^{-20} (e-cm)$) and there is an enhancement in the case of two extra dimensions, especially for the tau lepton electric dipole moment.
E. O. Iltan
Analysis on various pricing scenarios in a deregulated electricity market
The electricity pricing structure in Texas has changed after deregulation (January 2002). The Energy Systems Laboratory has served as a technical consultant on electricity purchases to several universities in the Texas A&M University System since 2001. In the fiscal year of 2006 Stephen F. Austin State University joined with the TAMU campuses and agencies, and there are now 183 accounts in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) North, Northeast, South, West, and Houston areas of Texas. From the 183 accounts, 9 Interval Data Recorder (IDR) accounts consume 92% of the total load. The objective of this research is to find the most economic price structure to purchase electricity for the Texas A&M System and Stephen F. Austin University by analyzing various pricing scenarios: the spot market, forward contracts, take or pay contracts and on/off season (tiered) contracts. The analysis was based on the 9 IDR accounts. The prices for the spot market were given by ERCOT and the other prices by Sempra. The energy charges were calculated every 15 minute using the real historical consumption of each facility and the aggregated load of all facilities. The result for the analysis was given for each institution separately, as well as for the aggregated load of all facilities. The results of the analysis showed that the tiered price was the most economical structure to purchase electricity for each individual university and for the total aggregated load of all 9 IDR accounts. From March 1, 2005 to February 28, 2006, purchasing electricity on the tiered price would have cost $13,810,560. The forward contract, that is, purchasing electricity on a fixed rate, was the next cheapest with an energy cost of $14,266,870 from March 1, 2005 to February 28, 2006, 3% higher than purchasing electricity at the tiered price. The most expensive method to purchase electricity would have been the spot market. Its energy costs would have been approximately $18,171,610, 36% and 31% higher, respectively, than purchasing electricity at the tiered price and the fixed rate.
Afanador Delgado, Catalina
Develop low emissions growth scenarios | Open Energy Information
low emissions growth scenarios low emissions growth scenarios Jump to: navigation, search Stage 3 LEDS Home Introduction to Framework Assess current country plans, policies, practices, and capacities Develop_BAU Stage 4: Prioritizing and Planning for Actions Begin execution of implementation plans 1.0. Organizing the LEDS Process 1.1. Institutional Structure for LEDS 1.2. Workplan to Develop the LEDS 1.3. Roles and responsibilities to develop LEDS 2.1. Assess current country plans, policies, practices, and capacities 2.2. Compile lessons learned and good practices from ongoing and previous sustainable development efforts in the country 2.3. Assess public and private sector capacity to support initiatives 2.4. Assess and improve the national GHG inventory and other economic and resource data as needed for LEDS development
Energy System and Scenario Analysis Toolkit | Open Energy Information
(Redirected from Gateway:International/Energy Scenario Analysis) (Redirected from Gateway:International/Energy Scenario Analysis) Jump to: navigation, search Stage 3 LEDS Home Introduction to Framework Assess current country plans, policies, practices, and capacities Develop_BAU Stage 4: Prioritizing and Planning for Actions Begin execution of implementation plans 1.0. Organizing the LEDS Process 1.1. Institutional Structure for LEDS 1.2. Workplan to Develop the LEDS 1.3. Roles and responsibilities to develop LEDS 2.1. Assess current country plans, policies, practices, and capacities 2.2. Compile lessons learned and good practices from ongoing and previous sustainable development efforts in the country 2.3. Assess public and private sector capacity to support initiatives 2.4. Assess and improve the national GHG inventory and other
Planning substation capacity under the single-contingency scenario
Florida Power and Light (FPL) adopts the single contingency emergency policy for its planning of substation capacity. This paper provides an approach to determine the maximum load which a substation can take on under such a policy. The approach consists of two LP models which determine: (1) the maximum substation load capacity, and (2) the reallocation of load when a substation`s demand cannot be met. Both models are formulated under the single-contingency scenario, an issue which had received little attention in the literature. Not only does the explicit treatment of the scenario provide an exact measure of a substation`s load limit, it also raises several important issues which previous works omit. These two models have been applied to the substation network of the Fort Myers District of the State of Florida.
Leung, L.C. [Chinese Univ. of Hong Kong, Shatin (Hong Kong). Decision Sciences and Managerial Economics; Khator, S.K. [Univ. of South Florida, Tampa, FL (United States). Industrial and Management Systems Engineering; Schnepp, J.C. [Crest Ultrasonics, Trenton, NJ (United States)
Inflation scenario via the Standard Model Higgs boson and LHC
We consider a quantum corrected inflation scenario driven by a generic GUT or Standard Model type particle model whose scalar field playing the role of an inflaton has a strong non-minimal coupling to gravity. We show that currently widely accepted bounds on the Higgs mass falsify the suggestion of the paper arXiv:0710.3755 (where the role of radiative corrections was underestimated) that the Standard Model Higgs boson can serve as the inflaton. However, if the Higgs mass could be raised to $\\sim 230$ GeV, then the Standard Model could generate an inflationary scenario with the spectral index of the primordial perturbation spectrum $n_s\\simeq 0.935$ (barely matching present observational data) and the very low tensor-to-scalar perturbation ratio $r\\simeq 0.0006$.
A. O. Barvinsky; A. Yu. Kamenshchik; A. A. Starobinsky
Systems analysis of past, present, and future chemical terrorism scenarios.
Throughout history, as new chemical threats arose, strategies for the defense against chemical attacks have also evolved. As a part of an Early Career Laboratory Directed Research and Development project, a systems analysis of past, present, and future chemical terrorism scenarios was performed to understand how the chemical threats and attack strategies change over time. For the analysis, the difficulty in executing chemical attack was evaluated within a framework of three major scenario elements. First, historical examples of chemical terrorism were examined to determine how the use of chemical threats, versus other weapons, contributed to the successful execution of the attack. Using the same framework, the future of chemical terrorism was assessed with respect to the impact of globalization and new technologies. Finally, the efficacy of the current defenses against contemporary chemical terrorism was considered briefly. The results of this analysis justify the need for continued diligence in chemical defense.
Hoette, Trisha Marie
Land-use Scenario Analysis Toolkit | Open Energy Information
Land-use Scenario Analysis Toolkit Land-use Scenario Analysis Toolkit Jump to: navigation, search Stage 3 LEDS Home Introduction to Framework Assess current country plans, policies, practices, and capacities Develop_BAU Stage 4: Prioritizing and Planning for Actions Begin execution of implementation plans 1.0. Organizing the LEDS Process 1.1. Institutional Structure for LEDS 1.2. Workplan to Develop the LEDS 1.3. Roles and responsibilities to develop LEDS 2.1. Assess current country plans, policies, practices, and capacities 2.2. Compile lessons learned and good practices from ongoing and previous sustainable development efforts in the country 2.3. Assess public and private sector capacity to support initiatives 2.4. Assess and improve the national GHG inventory and other economic and resource data as needed for LEDS development
Energy System and Scenario Analysis Toolkit Energy System and Scenario Analysis Toolkit Jump to: navigation, search Stage 3 LEDS Home Introduction to Framework Assess current country plans, policies, practices, and capacities Develop_BAU Stage 4: Prioritizing and Planning for Actions Begin execution of implementation plans 1.0. Organizing the LEDS Process 1.1. Institutional Structure for LEDS 1.2. Workplan to Develop the LEDS 1.3. Roles and responsibilities to develop LEDS 2.1. Assess current country plans, policies, practices, and capacities 2.2. Compile lessons learned and good practices from ongoing and previous sustainable development efforts in the country 2.3. Assess public and private sector capacity to support initiatives 2.4. Assess and improve the national GHG inventory and other economic and resource data as needed for LEDS development
Stage 3c: Developing and Assessing Low Emissions Development Scenarios |
Stage 3c: Developing and Assessing Low Emissions Development Scenarios Stage 3c: Developing and Assessing Low Emissions Development Scenarios Jump to: navigation, search Stage 3 LEDS Home Introduction to Framework Assess current country plans, policies, practices, and capacities Develop_BAU Stage 4: Prioritizing and Planning for Actions Begin execution of implementation plans 1.0. Organizing the LEDS Process 1.1. Institutional Structure for LEDS 1.2. Workplan to Develop the LEDS 1.3. Roles and responsibilities to develop LEDS 2.1. Assess current country plans, policies, practices, and capacities 2.2. Compile lessons learned and good practices from ongoing and previous sustainable development efforts in the country 2.3. Assess public and private sector capacity to support initiatives 2.4. Assess and improve the national GHG inventory and other
Physically based modeling of rainfall-triggered landslides: a case study in the Luquillo forest, Puerto Rico
This paper presents the development of a rainfall-triggered landslide module within an existing physically based spatially distributed ecohydrologic model. The model, tRIBS-VEGGIE (Triangulated Irregular Networks-based ...
Arnone, E.
Stakeholder and Public Perceptions of 2030 Bioenergy Scenarios for Yorkshire
. This is supported by his comment that co-firing has "huge environmental potential". The other scenarios perform near 3.7 Head of Environment, Drax power station Drax is currently (2005/6) co-firing some 200,000 tonnes the confidence to move to energy crop supply. Co-firing is seen as potentially kick-starting take-up of smaller
Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicle Value Proposition Study: Interim Report: Phase I Scenario Evaluation
Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) offer significant improvements in fuel economy, convenient low-cost recharging capabilities, potential environmental benefits, and decreased reliance on imported petroleum. However, the cost associated with new components (e.g., advanced batteries) to be introduced in these vehicles will likely result in a price premium to the consumer. This study aims to overcome this market barrier by identifying and evaluating value propositions that will increase the qualitative value and/or decrease the overall cost of ownership relative to the competing conventional vehicles and hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) of 2030 During this initial phase of this study, business scenarios were developed based on economic advantages that either increase the consumer value or reduce the consumer cost of PHEVs to assure a sustainable market that can thrive without the aid of state and Federal incentives or subsidies. Once the characteristics of a thriving PHEV market have been defined for this timeframe, market introduction steps, such as supportive policies, regulations and temporary incentives, needed to reach this level of sustainability will be determined. PHEVs have gained interest over the past decade for several reasons, including their high fuel economy, convenient low-cost recharging capabilities, potential environmental benefits and reduced use of imported petroleum, potentially contributing to President Bush's goal of a 20% reduction in gasoline use in ten years, or 'Twenty in Ten'. PHEVs and energy storage from advanced batteries have also been suggested as enabling technologies to improve the reliability and efficiency of the electric power grid. However, PHEVs will likely cost significantly more to purchase than conventional or other hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), in large part because of the cost of batteries. Despite the potential long-term savings to consumers and value to stakeholders, the initial cost of PHEVs presents a major market barrier to their widespread commercialization. The purpose of this project is to identify and evaluate value-added propositions for PHEVs that will help overcome this market barrier. Candidate value propositions for the initial case study were chosen to enhance consumer acceptance of PHEVs and/or compatibility with the grid. Potential benefits of such grid-connected vehicles include the ability to supply peak load or emergency power requirements of the grid, enabling utilities to size their generation capacity and contingency resources at levels below peak. Different models for vehicle/battery ownership, leasing, financing and operation, as well as the grid, communications, and vehicle infrastructure needed to support the proposed value-added functions were explored during Phase 1. Rigorous power system, vehicle, financial and emissions modeling were utilized to help identify the most promising value propositions and market niches to focus PHEV deployment initiatives.
Sikes, Karen R [ORNL; Markel, Lawrence C [ORNL; Hadley, Stanton W [ORNL; Hinds, Shaun [Sentech, Inc.; DeVault, Robert C [ORNL
California's Carbon Challenge: Scenarios for Achieving 80% Emissions
Carbon Challenge: Scenarios for Achieving 80% Emissions Carbon Challenge: Scenarios for Achieving 80% Emissions Reduction in 2050 Title California's Carbon Challenge: Scenarios for Achieving 80% Emissions Reduction in 2050 Publication Type Report LBNL Report Number LBNL-5448E Year of Publication 2012 Authors Wei, Max, James H. Nelson, Michael K. Ting, Christopher Yang, J. Greenblatt, James E. McMahon, Daniel M. Kammen, Christopher M. Jones, Ana Mileva, Josiah Johnston, and Ranjit Bharvirkar Date Published 10/2012 Abstract Meeting the State of California's 2050 target of 80% lower greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) from a 1990 baseline is a challenging goal that cannot be met without a portfolio of measures and strategies that span both energy demand and energy supply. This study focuses on energy emissions with the target of reducing energy emissions by 80% relative to 1990 energy emissions. Meeting the 2050 target requires both a sustained commitment to aggressively develop existing technologies as well as an aggressive and sustained policy commitment to reshape and ultimately transform the state's energy system. The 2050 GHG target for California appears achievable, but requires significant changes in the way we produce energy, deliver energy services, and utilize energy.
Solar and Wind Energy Utilization and Project Development Scenarios |
Utilization and Project Development Scenarios Utilization and Project Development Scenarios Dataset Summary Description (Abstract): Solar and wind energy resources in Ethiopia have not been given due attention in the past. Some of the primary reasons for under consideration of these resources are lack of awareness of their potential in the country, the role they can have in the overall energy mix and the social benefits associated with them. Knowledge of the exploitable potential of these resources and identification of potential regions for development will help energy planners and developers to incorporate these resources as alternative means of supplying energy by conducting a more accurate techno-economic analysis which leads to more realistic economic projections. (Purpose): The ultimate objective of this study is to produce a document that comprises country background information on solar and wind energy utilization and project scenarios which present solar and wind energy investment opportunities to investors and decision makers. It is an integrated study with specific objectives of resource documentation including analysis of barriers and policies, identification of potential areas for technology promotion, and nationwide aggregation of potentials and benefits of the resource. The
The dynamic simulation of organic farming development scenarios - A case study in Slovenia
In this paper a system dynamics model for organic farming development to support government decision making is presented. The system incorporates relevant variables which affect organic farming development. The user seeks answers to strategic questions ... Keywords: Model, Organic farming, Simulation, System dynamics
Rtomir Rozman, Karmen Paek, Miroljub Kljaji?, Martina Bavec, Jernej Turk, Franc Bavec, Davorin Kofja?, Andrej ŠKraba
Mega-Flu Pandemic (not quite the) Worst Case Scenario V.2 INTERNATIONAL
Human-to-Human Transmission Outbreaks Continue in Rural China; "Surveillance Inadequate" Say WHO Shortages and Sharp Price Increases Flu-Related Buying Blamed Drugs, Water, Food, Energy, Health and Safety
Toward the regulation of ubiquitous mobile government: a case study on location-based emergency services in Australia
Mobile alerts, notifications and location-based emergency warning systems are now an established part of mobile government strategies in an increasing number of countries worldwide. In Australia the national emergency warning system (NEWS) was instituted ... Keywords: Emergency management, Location-based services, Mobile government, Regulation
Anas Aloudat; Katina Michael
NUREG/CR-6695 PNNL-13375 Hydrologic Uncertainty Assessment for Decommissioning Sites: Hypothetical Test Case Applications Prepared by
This report uses hypothetical decommissioning test cases to illustrate an uncertainty assessment methodology for dose assessments conducted as part of decommissioning analyses for NRC-licensed facilities. This methodology was presented previously in NUREG/CR-6656. The hypothetical test case source term and scenarios are based on an actual decommissioning case and the physical setting is based on the site of a field experiment carried out for the NRC in Arizona. The emphasis in the test case was on parameter uncertainty. The analysis is limited to the hydrologic aspects of the exposure pathway involving infiltration of water at the ground surface, leaching of contaminants, and transport of contaminants through the groundwater to a point of exposure. The methodology uses generic parameter distributions based on national or regional databases for estimating
P. D. Meyer; R. Y. Taira
Market-Based Valuation of New Coal-Fired Generation: Case Studies of Investment Risk and Profitability
Natural gas turbine technology has dominated new generation capacity additions in the United States, yet several years of unexpectedly high natural gas prices are driving interest in alternatives. This report uses case studies of new coal-fired generation to address the question of whether coal can be a good choice for the private investor. The studies give great detail on possible coal plants in Texas and some guidance on possible projects in Virginia, Ohio, and Indiana. The studies provide a comprehens...
Modified GBIG Scenario as a Successful Alternative for Dark Energy
We construct a DGP-inspired braneworld model where induced gravity on the brane is modified in the spirit of $f(R)$ gravity and stringy effects are taken into account by incorporation of the Gauss-Bonnet term in the bulk action. We explore cosmological dynamics of this model and we show that this scenario is a successful alternative for dark energy proposal. Interestingly, it realizes the phantom-like behavior without introduction of any phantom field on the brane and the effective equation of state parameter crosses the cosmological constant line naturally in the same way as observational data suggest.
Nozari, Kourosh
Executive Summary High-Yield Scenario Workshop Series Report
To get a collective sense of the impact of research and development (R&D) on biomass resource availability, and to determine the feasibility that yields higher than baseline assumptions used for past assessments could be achieved to support U.S. energy independence, an alternate "High-Yield Scenario" (HYS) concept was presented to industry experts at a series of workshops held in December 2009. The workshops explored future production of corn/agricultural crop residues, herbaceous energy crops (HECs), and woody energy crops (WECs). This executive summary reports the findings of that workshop.
Leslie Park Ovard; Thomas H. Ulrich; David J. Muth Jr.; J. Richard Hess; Steven Thomas; Bryce Stokes
Modified GBIG Scenario as an Alternative for Dark Energy
Kourosh Nozari; Narges Rashidi
Thailand-NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 | Open Energy Information
Thailand-NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 Thailand-NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 Jump to: navigation, search Name Thailand-NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 Agency/Company /Organization National Institute for Environmental Studies Topics Background analysis, Low emission development planning Website http://2050.nies.go.jp/LCS/ind Program Start 2009 Country Thailand UN Region Eastern Asia References 2050 Low-Carbon Society Scenarios (LCSs)[1] National and Local Scenarios National and local scenarios available from the activity webpage: http://2050.nies.go.jp/LCS/index.html References ↑ "2050 Low-Carbon Society Scenarios (LCSs)" Retrieved from "http://en.openei.org/w/index.php?title=Thailand-NIES_Low-Carbon_Society_Scenarios_2050&oldid=700318" Category: Programs
Vietnam-NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 | Open Energy Information
Vietnam-NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 Vietnam-NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 Jump to: navigation, search Name Vietnam-NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 Agency/Company /Organization National Institute for Environmental Studies Topics Background analysis, Low emission development planning Website http://2050.nies.go.jp/LCS/ind Program Start 2009 Country Vietnam UN Region Eastern Asia References 2050 Low-Carbon Society Scenarios (LCSs)[1] National and Local Scenarios National and local scenarios available from the activity webpage: http://2050.nies.go.jp/LCS/index.html References ↑ "2050 Low-Carbon Society Scenarios (LCSs)" Retrieved from "http://en.openei.org/w/index.php?title=Vietnam-NIES_Low-Carbon_Society_Scenarios_2050&oldid=700320" Category: Programs
Japan-NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 | Open Energy Information
Japan-NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 Japan-NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 Jump to: navigation, search Name Japan-NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 Agency/Company /Organization National Institute for Environmental Studies Topics Background analysis, Low emission development planning Website http://2050.nies.go.jp/LCS/ind Program Start 2009 Country Japan UN Region Eastern Asia References 2050 Low-Carbon Society Scenarios (LCSs)[1] National and Local Scenarios National and local scenarios available from the activity webpage: http://2050.nies.go.jp/LCS/index.html References ↑ "2050 Low-Carbon Society Scenarios (LCSs)" Retrieved from "http://en.openei.org/w/index.php?title=Japan-NIES_Low-Carbon_Society_Scenarios_2050&oldid=700314" Category: Programs What links here
Indonesia-NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 | Open Energy Information
Indonesia-NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 Indonesia-NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 Jump to: navigation, search Name Indonesia-NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 Agency/Company /Organization National Institute for Environmental Studies Topics Background analysis, Low emission development planning Website http://2050.nies.go.jp/LCS/ind Program Start 2009 Country Indonesia UN Region Eastern Asia References 2050 Low-Carbon Society Scenarios (LCSs)[1] National and Local Scenarios National and local scenarios available from the activity webpage: http://2050.nies.go.jp/LCS/index.html References ↑ "2050 Low-Carbon Society Scenarios (LCSs)" Retrieved from "http://en.openei.org/w/index.php?title=Indonesia-NIES_Low-Carbon_Society_Scenarios_2050&oldid=700312" Category:
Exploring the Structure of Regional Climate Scenarios by Combining Synoptic and Dynamic Guidance and GCM Output
A set of regional climate scenarios is constructed for two study regions in North America using a combination of GCM output and synoptic–dynamical reasoning. The approach begins by describing the structure and components of a climate scenario and ...
James S. Risbey; Peter J. Lamb; Ron L. Miller; Michael C. Morgan; Gerard H. Roe
China-NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 | Open Energy Information
China-NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 Jump to: navigation, search Name China-NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 AgencyCompany Organization National Institute for...
Scenario Analysis of Peak Demand Savings for Commercial Buildings with Thermal Mass in California
Scenario Analysis of Peak Demand Savings for CommercialScenario Analysis of Peak Demand Savings for CommercialThe whole-building peak demand of a commercial building with
Yin, Rongxin
Japan's Long-term Energy Demand and Supply Scenario to 2050 ...
Long-term Energy Demand and Supply Scenario to 2050 - Estimation for the Potential of Massive CO2 Mitigation Title Japan's Long-term Energy Demand and Supply Scenario to 2050 -...
Long-Range U.S. Energy Price and Quantity Projections inLaboratory. Natural Gas Price Scenarios Among activelys 2004 IRP includes three gas price scenarios. As shown in
and trade - - offs) need to be assessed as part of offs) need to be assessed as part of scenario analysis. What makes hydrogen scenario analysis. What makes hydrogen FCVs FCVs...
Mobility-supporting data management for location-based mobile systems: the special case of single category location repositories
Location-based mobile applications require timely generation of user-centric proximities from application-relevant repositories of business locations. The proximity generation requirement is poorly served by conventional query resolution methods which ...
James E. Wyse
Bias Adjustment of Satellite Precipitation Estimation Using Ground-Based Measurement: A Case Study Evaluation over the Southwestern United States
Reliable precipitation measurement is a crucial component in hydrologic studies. Although satellite-based observation is able to provide spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation, the measurements tend to show systematic bias. This paper ...
Farid Ishak Boushaki; Kuo-Lin Hsu; Soroosh Sorooshian; Gi-Hyeon Park; Shayesteh Mahani; Wei Shi
Radar-Based Quantitative Precipitation Estimation for the Cool Season in Complex Terrain: Case Studies from the NOAA Hydrometeorology Testbed
This study explores error sources of the National Weather Service operational radar-based quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) during the cool season over the complex terrain of the western United States. A new, operationally geared radar ...
Jian Zhang; Youcun Qi; David Kingsmill; Kenneth Howard
Experiences from near-real-time satellite-based volcano monitoring in Central America: case studies at Fuego, Guatemala
Over the past decade, remote sensing has been used increasingly in the study of active volcanoes and their associated hazards. Ground-based remote sensing techniques, such as those aimed at the analysis of volcanic gases or fumarole temperatures, are ...
P. W. Webley; M. J. Wooster; W. Strauch; J. A. Saballos; K. Dill; P. Stephenson; J. Stephenson; R. Escobar Wolf; O. Matias
Feedback loops in educational environments using web-based survey tools : new technology development and three implementation case studies
This thesis presents lessons from the development of an on-line, web-based feedback system and preliminary analysis of the socio-technical interactions associated with the specification, design and use of this system. The ...
Spead, Benjamin, 1978-
Domains of competence of fuzzy rule based classification systems with data complexity measures: A case of study using a fuzzy hybrid genetic based machine learning method
The analysis of data complexity is a proper framework to characterize the tackled classification problem and to identify domains of competence of classifiers. As a practical outcome of this framework, the proposed data complexity measures may facilitate ... Keywords: Classification, Data complexity, Fuzzy rule based systems, Genetic fuzzy systems
Julián Luengo; Francisco Herrera
Double Ended Guillotine Break in a Prismatic Block VHTR Lower Plenum Air Ingress Scenario
The double ended guillotine break leading to density-driven air ingress has been identified as a low probability yet high consequence event for Very High Temperature Reactor (VHTR). The lower plenum of the VHTR contains the core support structure and is composed of graphite. During an air ingress event, oxidation of the graphite structure under high temperature conditions in an oxygen containing environment could degrade the integrity of the core support structure. Following this large break, air from the reactor containment will begin to enter the lower plenum via two mechanisms: diffusion or density driven stratified flow. The large difference in time scales between the mechanisms leads to the need to perform high fidelity experimental studies to investigate the dominant the air ingress mechanism. A scaled test facility has been designed and built that allows the acquisition of velocity measurements during stratification after a pipe break. A non-intrusive optical measurement technique provides full-field velocity measurements profiles of the two species Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV). The data allow a more developed understanding of the fundamental flow features, the development of improved models, and possible mitigation strategies in such a scenario.Two brine-water experiments were conducted with different break locations. Flow fronts were analyzed and findings concluded that the flow has a constant speed through the pipe after the initial lock exchange. The time in which the flow enters the lower plenum is an important factor because it provides the window of opportunity for mitigation strategies in an actual reactor scenario. For both cases the flow of the heavier density liquid (simulating air ingress from the reactor containment) from the pipe enters the reactor vessel in under 6 seconds. The diffusion velocity and heavy flow front of the stratified flow layer were compared for the SF6/He gas case. It is seen that the diffusion plays less of a role as the transport mechanism in comparison to the density-driven stratified flow since the velocity of the diffusion is two orders of magnitude smaller than the velocity of the stratified flow mechanism. This is the reason for the need for density-driven stratified flow investigations following a LOCA. These investigations provided high-quality data for CFD validation in order for these models to depict the basic phenomena occurring in an air ingress scenario.
Hartley, Jessica
Energy Technology Perspectives, 2010: Scenarios & Strategies to 2050 | Open
Page Page Edit with form History Facebook icon Twitter icon » Energy Technology Perspectives, 2010: Scenarios & Strategies to 2050 Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Energy Technology Perspectives, 2010: Scenarios & Strategies to 2050 Focus Area: Carbon Capture and Storage Topics: Environmental Website: www.iea.org/Textbase/nppdf/free/2010/etp2010_part1.pdf Equivalent URI: cleanenergysolutions.org/content/energy-technology-perspectives-2010-s Policies: "Regulations,Financial Incentives" is not in the list of possible values (Deployment Programs, Financial Incentives, Regulations) for this property. Regulations: "Emissions Standards,Emissions Mitigation Scheme,Mandates/Targets" is not in the list of possible values (Agriculture Efficiency Requirements, Appliance & Equipment Standards and Required Labeling, Audit Requirements, Building Certification, Building Codes, Cost Recovery/Allocation, Emissions Mitigation Scheme, Emissions Standards, Enabling Legislation, Energy Standards, Feebates, Feed-in Tariffs, Fuel Efficiency Standards, Incandescent Phase-Out, Mandates/Targets, Net Metering & Interconnection, Resource Integration Planning, Safety Standards, Upgrade Requirements, Utility/Electricity Service Costs) for this property.
Biosimmer: A Virtual Reality Simulator for Training First Responders in a BW Scenario
BioSimMER (Bioterrorism Simulated Medical Emergency Response) is a Virtual Reality-based mission rehearsal and training environment. BioSimMER employs contingency-oriented, multiple-path algorithms and MOESINIOPS focused on real-world operations. BioSimMER is network-based and immerses multiple trainees in a high resolution synthetic environment, including virtual casualties and instruments that they may interact with and manipulate. Trainees are represented as individuals by virtual human Avatars. The simulation consists of several components: virtual casualties dynamically manifest the symptoms of their injuries and respond to the intervention of the trainees. Agent transport analysis is used to simulate casualty exposures and to drive the responses of simulated sensors/detectors. The selected prototype scenario is representative of combined injuries anticipated in BW operations.
Shawver, D.M.; Sobel, A.L.; Stansfield, S.A.
Special Report on Emissions Scenarios : a special report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios Contents: Foreword Preface Summary for policymakers Technical Summary Chapter 1: Background and Overview Chapter 2: An Overview of the Scenario Literature Chapter 3: Scenario Driving Forces Chapter 4: An Overview of Scenarios Chapter 5: Emission Scenarios Chapter 6: Summary Discussions and Recommendations
Nakicenovic, Nebojsa; Alcamo, Joseph; Davis, Gerald; de Vries, Bert; Fenhann, Joergen; Gaffin, Stuart; Gregory, Kenneth; Grubler, Arnulf; Jung, Tae Yong; Kram, Tom; La Rovere, Emilio Lebre; Michaelis, Laurie; Mori, Shunsuke; Morita, Tsuneyuki; Pepper, William; Pitcher, Hugh M.; Price, Lynn; Riahi, Keywan; Roehrl, Alexander; Rogner, Hans-Holger; Sankovski, Alexei; Schlesinger, Michael; Shukla, Priyadarshi; Smith, Steven J.; Swart, Robert; van Rooijen, Sascha; Victor, Nadejda; Dadi, Zhou
Relational Cloud: The Case for a Database Service
In this paper, we make the case for â databases as a serviceâ (DaaS), with two target scenarios in mind: (i) consolidation of data management functionality for large organizations and (ii) outsourcing data management ...
Wu, Eugene
Hawaii Clean Energy Initiative (HCEI) Scenario Analysis: Quantitative Estimates Used to Facilitate Working Group Discussions (2008-2010)
This report provides details on the Hawaii Clean Energy Initiative (HCEI) Scenario Analysis to identify potential policy options and evaluate their impact on reaching the 70% HECI goal, present possible pathways to attain the goal based on currently available technology, with an eye to initiatives under way in Hawaii, and provide an 'order-of-magnitude' cost estimate and a jump-start to action that would be adjusted with a better understanding of the technologies and market.
Braccio, R.; Finch, P.; Frazier, R.
Extracting magnetic anomalies based on an improved BEMD method: A case study in the Pangxidong Area, South China
In bidimensional empirical mode decomposition, an appropriate stoppage criterion for the sifting process is important. To solve the problem of unstable convergence, a stepwise stop criterion was presented based on the Cauchy-type criterion. In one sifting ... Keywords: BEMD, Magnetic data, Mode mixing, Stepwise stop criterion
Weisheng Hou; Zhijun Yang; Yongzhang Zhou; Liping Zhang; Wenlong Wu
Internet-based 'social sharing' as a new form of global production: The case of SETI@home
Benkler (Sharing nicely: on shareable goods and the emergence of sharing as a modality of economic production, Yale Law Journal, 2004, vol. 114, pp. 273-358) has argued that 'social sharing' via Internet-based distributed computing is a new, so far under-appreciated ... Keywords: Digital divide, Distributed computing, Economic production, SETI@home, Shareable goods, Social sharing
Hans-Jürgen Engelbrecht
Creating a specific domain ontology for supporting R&D in the science-based sector - The case of biosensors
In science-based and technology-intensive projects, knowledge management challenges require a tentative and cautious review of the technological domains, as well as, venues to monitor and assess the way those domains evolve, emerge, mature, and decline. ... Keywords: Biosensor, Domain ontology, Engineering knowledge, Meta-modeling
Fragiskos A. Batzias; Christina G. Siontorou
Agent-based algorithms for collaborative price search in electronic commerce: a case study and performance evaluation
This paper presents an architecture based on mobile agents to search for admissible prices of a specific item among many merchant sites over the Internet. To make the search more efficient, mobile agents collaborate by exchanging information. In this ... Keywords: collaboration, data retrieval, e-commerce, mobile agents, price search
Ali Chamam; Samuel Pierre; Roch H. Glitho
A type-based approach to separating protocol from application logic: a case study in hybrid computer programming
Numerous programming models have been introduced to allow programmers to utilize new accelerator-based architectures. While OpenCL and CUDA provide low-level access to accelerator programming, the task cries out for a higher-level abstraction. Of the ...
Geoffrey C. Hulette; Matthew J. Sottile; Allen D. Malony
The Reality and Future Scenarios of Commercial Building Energy Consumption in China
While China's 11th Five Year Plan called for a reduction of energy intensity by 2010, whether and how the energy consumption trend can be changed in a short time has been hotly debated. This research intends to evaluate the impact of a variety of scenarios of GDP growth, energy elasticity and energy efficiency improvement on energy consumption in commercial buildings in China using a detailed China End-use Energy Model. China's official energy statistics have limited information on energy demand by end use. This is a particularly pertinent issue for building energy consumption. The authors have applied reasoned judgments, based on experience of working on Chinese efficiency standards and energy related programs, to present a realistic interpretation of the current energy data. The bottom-up approach allows detailed consideration of end use intensity, equipment efficiency, etc., thus facilitating assessment of potential impacts of specific policy and technology changes on building energy use. The results suggest that: (1) commercial energy consumption in China's current statistics is underestimated by about 44%, and the fuel mix is misleading; (2) energy efficiency improvements will not be sufficient to offset the strong increase in end-use penetration and intensity in commercial buildings; (3) energy intensity (particularly electricity) in commercial buildings will increase; (4) different GDP growth and elasticity scenarios could lead to a wide range of floor area growth trajectories , and therefore, significantly impact energy consumption in commercial buildings.
Zhou, Nan; Lin, Jiang
This paper reports on the potential impact of demand response (DR) strategies in commercial buildings in California based on the Demand Response Quick Assessment Tool (DRQAT), which uses EnergyPlus simulation prototypes for office and retail buildings. The study describes the potential impact of building size, thermal mass, climate, and DR strategies on demand savings in commercial buildings. Sensitivity analyses are performed to evaluate how these factors influence the demand shift and shed during the peak period. The whole-building peak demand of a commercial building with high thermal mass in a hot climate zone can be reduced by 30percent using an optimized demand response strategy. Results are summarized for various simulation scenarios designed to help owners and managers understand the potential savings for demand response deployment. Simulated demand savings under various scenarios were compared to field-measured data in numerous climate zones, allowing calibration of the prototype models. The simulation results are compared to the peak demand data from the Commercial End-Use Survey for commercial buildings in California. On the economic side, a set of electricity rates are used to evaluate the impact of the DR strategies on economic savings for different thermal mass and climate conditions. Our comparison of recent simulation to field test results provides an understanding of the DR potential in commercial buildings.
Yin, Rongxin; Kiliccote, Sila; Piette, Mary Ann; Parrish, Kristen
Using Adaptive Agent-Based Simulation Models to Assist Planners in Policy: The Case of Rent Control
: 2 Computer simulation modeling for policy development in planning has had difficulty gaining a consistent foothold. Reasons for this include bad experiences with large-scale, comprehensive models (e.g., Forrester, 1969) and the lack of theory that one can quantify (Batty, 1994). Batty (1994) has suggested that new types of computational models, based on the tenets of complexity theory (Bernard, under revision) may prove useful. One type of complexity theory model is an "adaptive agent based model" in which the actions, interactions, and adaptations of many autonomous, heterogeneous "agents" (households, firms, etc.) produce emergent, systemwide behavior. One can examine this emergent behavior using commonly employed metrics, but one can also garner a richer, more intuitive understanding of how the individual behavior of the agents self-organize to produce the entire system. Using this type of modeling for small-scale planning problems can both inform planning theorists and improve ...
Robert N. Bernard
Industry Sensitivity to Extreme Price Scenarios in a Stochastic...
Proc. NCBC, May 2007 Chicago. Granderson, J, M.A. Piette, G. Ghatikar, and P. Price. 2009. Building Energy Information Systems: State of Technology and User Case Studies....
Improvements to Hydrogen Delivery Scenario Analysis Model (HDSAM) and Results
to Hydrogen to Hydrogen Delivery Scenario Analysis Model (HDSAM) and Results May 8, 2007 Amgad Elgowainy Argonne National Laboratory Comparison of Delivery Pathways- V1.0 vs. V2.0 2 1 3 i delivery by a Loading, the plant Version 1.0 character zed components for 3 pathways with single mode. conditioning and storage are at or adjacent to Liquid Hydrogen (LH) Truck H2 Production 100 or 1500 kg/d Compressed H2 (CH) Truck H2 Production 3 or 7 kpsi 100 or 1500 kg/d H2 Production Gaseous H2 Pipeline 100 or 1500 kg/d HDSAM V1.0 Estimates Delivery Cost for 3 Pathways 4 H2 H2 1 2 3 H2 Distribution and Ci I. Liquid H2 Distribution: HDSAM V2.0 Simulates Nine Pathways Production Production LH Terminal LH Terminal Production LH Terminal Transmission Transmission Distribution
Using HyTrans to Study H2 Transition Scenarios
Using HyTrans Using HyTrans to Study H2 Transition Scenarios David Greene & Paul Leiby Oak Ridge National Laboratory Elzbieta Tworek Univ. of Tennessee & StrataG David Bowman Consultant DOE Hydrogen Transition Analysis Workshop January 26, 2006 Washington, DC OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORY U. S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY We will try to cover 4 topics in ½ hour because what we want is your input. 1. What is HyTrans? 2. What can it do? 1. Previous analyses 2. Initial early transition runs 3. What improvements are needed for realistic early transition analysis? 4. How will we interface with NREL's detailed GIS analyses? OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORY U. S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY 1. What is HyTrans? OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORY U. S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY HyTrans is a national (regional) model of the market
Stage 3a: Developing BAU Scenario | Open Energy Information
source source History View New Pages Recent Changes All Special Pages Semantic Search/Querying Get Involved Help Apps Datasets Community Login | Sign Up Search Page Edit History Facebook icon Twitter icon » Stage 3a: Developing BAU Scenario Jump to: navigation, search Stage 3 LEDS Home Introduction to Framework Assess current country plans, policies, practices, and capacities Develop_BAU Stage 4: Prioritizing and Planning for Actions Begin execution of implementation plans 1.0. Organizing the LEDS Process 1.1. Institutional Structure for LEDS 1.2. Workplan to Develop the LEDS 1.3. Roles and responsibilities to develop LEDS 2.1. Assess current country plans, policies, practices, and capacities 2.2. Compile lessons learned and good practices from ongoing and previous sustainable development efforts in the country
Recent progress in scenario development for the WIPP
The US Department of Energy (DOE) is preparing to request the US Environmental Protection Agency to certify compliance with the radioactive waste disposal standards found in 40 CFR Part 191 for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). The DOE will also need to demonstrate compliance with a number of other State and Federal standards and, in particular, the Land Disposal Restrictions of the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA), 40 CFR Part 268. Demonstrating compliance with these regulations requires an assessment of the long-term performance of the WIPP disposal system. Re-evaluation and extension of past scenario development for the WIPP forms an integral part of the ongoing performance assessment (PA) process.
Galson, D.A. [Galson Sciences Limited, Oakham, Rutland (United Kingdom); Swift, P.N. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States)
Scenarios for the ATF2 Ultra-Low Betas Proposal
The current ATF2 Ultra-Low beta proposal was designed to achieve 20nm vertical IP beam size without considering the multipolar components of the FD magnets. In this paper we describe different scenarios that avoid the detrimental effect of these multipolar errors to the beam size at the interaction point (IP). The simplest approach consists in modifying the optics, but other solutions are studied as the introduction of super-conducting wigglers to reduce the emittance or the replacement of the normal-conducting focusing quadrupole in the Final Doublet (NC-QF1FF) with a super-conducting quadrupole one (SC-QF1FF). These are fully addressed in the paper.
Marin, Eduardo; /CERN; Tomas, Rogelio; /CERN; Bambade, Philip; /Orsay, LAL; Kuroda, Shigeru; /KEK, Tsukuba; Okugi, Toshiyuki; /KEK, Tsukuba; Tauchi, Toshiaki; /KEK, Tsukuba; Terunuma, Nobuhiro; /KEK, Tsukuba; Urakawa, Junji; /KEK, Tsukuba; Parker, Brett; /Brookhaven; Seryi, Andrei; /SLAC; White, Glen; /SLAC; Woodley, Mark; /SLAC
Review of potential EGS sites and possible EGS demonstration scenarios
Review of potential sites for Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) and development of reference scenarios for EGS demonstration projects are two sub-tasks included in the FY 1999 EGS Research and Development (R&D) Management Task (DOE Task Order Number DE-AT07-99ID60365, included in the Appendix of this report). These sub-tasks are consistent with the EGS Strategic Plan, which includes milestones relating to EGS site selection (Milestone 4, to be completed in 2004) and development of a cost-shared, pilot-scale demonstration project (Milestone 5, to be completed in 2008). The purpose of the present work is to provide some reference points for discussing what type of EGS projects might be undertaken, where they might be located, and what the associated benefits are likely to be. The review of potential EGS sites is presented in Chapter 2 of this report. It draws upon site-selection criteria (and potential project sites that were identified using those criteria) developed at a mini-workshop held at the April 1998 DOE Geothermal Program Review to discuss EGS R&D issues. The criteria and the sites were the focus of a paper presented at the 4th International Hot Dry Rock Forum in Strasbourg in September 1998 (Sass and Robertson-Tait, 1998). The selection criteria, project sites and possible EGS developments discussed in the workshop and paper are described in more detail herein. Input from geothermal operators is incorporated, and water availability and transmission-line access are emphasized. The reference scenarios for EGS demonstration projects are presented in Chapter 3. Three alternative scenarios are discussed: (1) a stand-alone demonstration plant in an area with no existing geothermal development; (2) a separate generating facility adjacent to an existing geothermal development; and (3) an EGS project that supplies an existing geothermal power plant with additional generating capacity. Furthermore, information potentially useful to DOE in framing solicitations and selecting projects for funding is discussed objectively. Although defined as separate sub-tasks, the EGS site review and reference scenarios are closely related. The incremental approach to EGS development that has recently been adopted could logically be expected to yield proposals for studies that lead up to and include production-enhancement experiments in producing geothermal fields in the very near future. However, the strategic plan clearly calls for the development of a more comprehensive demonstration project that can generate up to perhaps 10 MW (gross). It is anticipated that a series of small-scale experiments will define what realistically may be achieved in the near future, thus setting the stage for a successful pilot demonstration. This report continues the process of presenting information on EGS sites and experiments, and begins the process of defining what a demonstration project might be.
Mode Conversion Heating Scenarios for the National Compact Stellarator Experiment
Radio-frequency heating scenarios for the National Compact Stellarator eXperiment (NCSX) are considered. The focus here is on mode conversion from the fast to the slow ion Bernstein wave as either an electron or ''bulk'' ion heating technique, using a high-field side launch to directly access the ion-ion hybrid layer. Modeling for the planned parameters of NCSX [R(subscript ave) {approximately} 1.4 m, a(subscript ave) {approximately} 0.4 m, B(subscript T)(0) {approximately} 1.2-2 T, n(subscript e)(0) {approximately} 2-5 x 10(superscript19) m(superscript -3), T(subscript e)(0) {approximately} T(subscript i)(0) {approximately} 1-2 keV] for mode conversion in D-H and D-3He plasmas is presented. Possible types of high-field side antennas are also briefly discussed.
Majeski, R.; Wilson, J.R.; and Zarnstorff, M.
The LHCb Muon detector commissioning and first running scenarios
The LHCb muon detector, part of the first LHCb trigger level (L0), has been built to provide a fast and efficient identification of the muons produced in pp collisions at the LHC. The expected performances are: 95% L0 trigger efficiency within a 25 ns time window and muon identification in L0 with a Pr resolution of 20%. The detector has been built using Multi-Wire Proportional Chambers and Gas Electron Multiplier technology. The chambers are arranged in five stations, interspersed with iron filter placed along the beam pipe. The results obtained in the commissioning of all the installed chambers and the measured performances are presented. The strategies foreseen for the detector calibration, the results of the space and time alignment efforts and few first running scenarios are discussed.
Furcas, S
FCT Systems Analysis: DOE 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis Meeting: August 9-10,
August 9-10, 2006 to someone by E-mail August 9-10, 2006 to someone by E-mail Share FCT Systems Analysis: DOE 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis Meeting: August 9-10, 2006 on Facebook Tweet about FCT Systems Analysis: DOE 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis Meeting: August 9-10, 2006 on Twitter Bookmark FCT Systems Analysis: DOE 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis Meeting: August 9-10, 2006 on Google Bookmark FCT Systems Analysis: DOE 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis Meeting: August 9-10, 2006 on Delicious Rank FCT Systems Analysis: DOE 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis Meeting: August 9-10, 2006 on Digg Find More places to share FCT Systems Analysis: DOE 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis Meeting: August 9-10, 2006 on AddThis.com... Home Analysis Methodologies DOE H2A Analysis Scenario Analysis Quick Links Hydrogen Production Hydrogen Delivery
An Analysis of Concentrating Solar Power with Thermal Energy Storage in a California 33% Renewable Scenario (Report Summary) (Presentation)
Combined Estimation of Hydrogeologic Conceptual Model, Parameter, and Scenario Uncertainty with Application to Uranium Transport at the Hanford Site 300 Area
This report to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) describes the development and application of a methodology to systematically and quantitatively assess predictive uncertainty in groundwater flow and transport modeling that considers the combined impact of hydrogeologic uncertainties associated with the conceptual-mathematical basis of a model, model parameters, and the scenario to which the model is applied. The methodology is based on a n extension of a Maximum Likelihood implementation of Bayesian Model Averaging. Model uncertainty is represented by postulating a discrete set of alternative conceptual models for a site with associated prior model probabilities that reflect a belief about the relative plausibility of each model based on its apparent consistency with available knowledge and data. Posterior model probabilities are computed and parameter uncertainty is estimated by calibrating each model to observed system behavior; prior parameter estimates are optionally included. Scenario uncertainty is represented as a discrete set of alternative future conditions affecting boundary conditions, source/sink terms, or other aspects of the models, with associated prior scenario probabilities. A joint assessment of uncertainty results from combining model predictions computed under each scenario using as weight the posterior model and prior scenario probabilities. The uncertainty methodology was applied to modeling of groundwater flow and uranium transport at the Hanford Site 300 Area. Eight alternative models representing uncertainty in the hydrogeologic and geochemical properties as well as the temporal variability were considered. Two scenarios represent alternative future behavior of the Columbia River adjacent to the site were considered. The scenario alternatives were implemented in the models through the boundary conditions. Results demonstrate the feasibility of applying a comprehensive uncertainty assessment to large-scale, detailed groundwater flow and transport modeling and illustrate the benefits of the methodology I providing better estimates of predictive uncertiay8, quantitative results for use in assessing risk, and an improved understanding of the system behavior and the limitations of the models.
Meyer, Philip D.; Ye, Ming; Rockhold, Mark L.; Neuman, Shlomo P.; Cantrell, Kirk J.
Potential dose distributions at proposed surface radioactvity clearance levels resulting from occupational scenarios.
The purpose of this report is to evaluate the potential dose distribution resulting from surface radioactivity, using occupational radiation exposure scenarios. The surface radioactivity clearance values considered in this analysis may ultimately replace those currently specified in the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) requirements and guidance for radiological protection of workers, the public and the environment. The surface contamination values apply to radioactive contamination deposited on a surface (i.e., not incorporated into the interior of the material). For these calculations, the dose coefficients for intake of radionuclides were taken from ICRP Publication 68 (ICRP 1994), and external exposure dose coefficients were taken from the compact disc (CD) that accompanied Federal Guidance Report (FGR) 13 (Eckerman et al. 1999). The ICRP Publication 68 dose coefficients were based on ICRP Publication 60 (ICRP 1990) and were used specifically for worker dose calculations. The calculated dose in this analysis is the 'effective dose' (ED), rather than the 'effective dose equivalent' (EDE).
Kamboj, S.; Yu, C.; Rabovsky, J. (Environmental Science Division); (USDOE)
Comparison of risk-dominant scenario assumptions for several TRU waste facilities in the DOE complex
In order to gain a risk management perspective, the DOE Rocky Flats Field Office (RFFO) initiated a survey of other DOE sites regarding risks from potential accidents associated with transuranic (TRU) storage and/or processing facilities. Recently-approved authorization basis documents at the Rocky Flats Environmental Technology Site (RFETS) have been based on the DOE Standard 3011 risk assessment methodology with three qualitative estimates of frequency of occurrence and quantitative estimates of radiological consequences to the collocated worker and the public binned into three severity levels. Risk Class 1 and 2 events after application of controls to prevent or mitigate the accident are designated as risk-dominant scenarios. Accident Evaluation Guidelines for selection of Technical Safety Requirements (TSRs) are based on the frequency and consequence bin assignments to identify controls that can be credited to reduce risk to Risk Class 3 or 4, or that are credited for Risk Class 1 and 2 scenarios that cannot be further reduced. This methodology resulted in several risk-dominant scenarios for either the collocated worker or the public that warranted consideration on whether additional controls should be implemented. RFFO requested the survey because of these high estimates of risks that are primarily due to design characteristics of RFETS TRU waste facilities (i.e., Butler-type buildings without a ventilation and filtration system, and a relatively short distance to the Site boundary). Accident analysis methodologies and key assumptions are being compared for the DOE sites responding to the survey. This includes type of accidents that are risk dominant (e.g., drum explosion, material handling breach, fires, natural phenomena, external events, etc.), source term evaluation (e.g., radionuclide material-at-risk, chemical and physical form, damage ratio, airborne release fraction, respirable fraction, leakpath factors), dispersion analysis (e.g., meteorological assumptions, distance to receptors, plume meander, deposition, and other factors affecting the calculated {chi}/Q), dose assessments (specific activities, inhalation dose conversion factors, breathing rates), designated frequency of occurrence, and risk assignment per the DOE Standard 3011 methodology. Information from the sites is being recorded on a spreadsheet to facilitate comparisons. The first response from Westinghouse Safety Management Solutions for the Savannah River Site (SRS) also provided a detailed analysis of the major differences in methods and assumptions between RFETS and SRS, which forms much of the basis for this paper. Other sites responding to the survey include the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL), Hanford, and the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL).
Foppe, T.L. [Foppe and Associates, Inc., Golden, CO (United States); Marx, D.R. [Westinghouse Safety Management Solutions, Inc., Aiken, SC (United States)
Roof-top solar energy potential under performance-based building energy codes: The case of Spain
The quantification at regional level of the amount of energy (for thermal uses and for electricity) that can be generated by using solar systems in buildings is hindered by the availability of data for roof area estimation. In this note, we build on an existing geo-referenced method for determining available roof area for solar facilities in Spain to produce a quantitative picture of the likely limits of roof-top solar energy. The installation of solar hot water systems (SHWS) and photovoltaic systems (PV) is considered. After satisfying up to 70% (if possible) of the service hot water demand in every municipality, PV systems are installed in the remaining roof area. Results show that, applying this performance-based criterion, SHWS would contribute up to 1662 ktoe/y of primary energy (or 68.5% of the total thermal-energy demand for service hot water), while PV systems would provide 10 T W h/y of electricity (or 4.0% of the total electricity demand). (author)
Izquierdo, Salvador; Montanes, Carlos; Dopazo, Cesar; Fueyo, Norberto [Fluid Mechanics Group, University of Zaragoza and LITEC (CSIC), Maria de Luna 3, 50018 Zaragoza (Spain)
Scenarios for Benefits Analysis of Energy Research, Development,Demonstration and Deployment
For at least the last decade, evaluation of the benefits of research, development, demonstration, and deployment (RD3) by the U.S. Department of Energy has been conducted using deterministic forecasts that unrealistically presume we can precisely foresee our future 10, 25,or even 50 years hence. This effort tries, in a modest way, to begin a process of recognition that the reality of our energy future is rather one rife with uncertainty. The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is used by the Department of Energy's Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EE) and Fossil Energy (FE) for their RD3 benefits evaluation. In order to begin scoping out the uncertainty in these deterministic forecasts, EE and FE designed two futures that differ significantly from the basic NEMS forecast. A High Fuel Price Scenario and a Carbon Cap Scenario were envisioned to forecast alternative futures and the associated benefits. Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) implemented these scenarios into its version of NEMS,NEMS-LBNL, in late 2004, and the Energy Information Agency created six scenarios for FE in early 2005. The creation and implementation of the EE-FE scenarios are explained in this report. Both a Carbon Cap Scenario and a High Fuel Price Scenarios were implemented into the NEMS-LBNL. EIA subsequently modeled similar scenarios using NEMS. While the EIA and LBNL implementations were in some ways rather different, their forecasts do not significantly diverge. Compared to the Reference Scenario, the High Fuel Price Scenario reduces energy consumption by 4 percent in 2025, while in the EIA fuel price scenario (known as Scenario 4) reduction from its corresponding reference scenario (known as Scenario 0) in 2025 is marginal. Nonetheless, the 4 percent demand reduction does not lead to other cascading effects that would significantly differentiate the two scenarios. The LBNL and EIA carbon scenarios were mostly identical. The only major difference was that LBNL started working with the AEO 2004NEMS code and EIA was using AEO 2005 NEMS code. Unlike the High Price Scenario the Carbon Cap scenario gives a radically different forecast than the Reference Scenario. NEMS-LBNL proved that it can handle these alternative scenarios. However, results are price inelastic (for both oil and natural gas prices) within the price range evaluated. Perhaps even higher price paths would lead to a distinctly different forecast than the Reference Scenario. On the other hand, the Carbon Cap Scenario behaves more like an alternative future. The future in the Carbon Cap Scenario has higher electricity prices, reduced driving, more renewable capacity, and reduced energy consumption. The next step for this work is to evaluate the EE benefits under each of the three scenarios. Comparing those three sets of predicted benefits will indicate how much uncertainty is inherent within this sort of deterministic forecasting.
Gumerman, Etan; Marnay, Chris
Preliminary analyses of scenarios for potential human interference for repositories in three salt formations
Preliminary analyses of scenarios for human interference with the performance of a radioactive waste repository in a deep salt formation are presented. The following scenarios are analyzed: (1) the U-Tube Connection Scenario involving multiple connections between the repository and the overlying aquifer system; (2) the Single Borehole Intrusion Scenario involving penetration of the repository by an exploratory borehole that simultaneously connects the repository with overlying and underlying aquifers; and (3) the Pressure Release Scenario involving inflow of water to saturate any void space in the repository prior to creep closure with subsequent release under near lithostatic pressures following creep closure. The methodology to evaluate repository performance in these scenarios is described and this methodology is applied to reference systems in three candidate formations: bedded salt in the Palo Duro Basin, Texas; bedded salt in the Paradox Basin, Utah; and the Richton Salt Dome, Mississippi, of the Gulf Coast Salt Dome Basin.
Global Fits of the Minimal Universal Extra Dimensions Scenario
In theories with Universal Extra-Dimensions (UED), the {gamma}{sub 1} particle, first excited state of the hypercharge gauge boson, provides an excellent Dark Matter (DM) candidate. Here we use a modified version of the SuperBayeS code to perform a Bayesian analysis of the minimal UED scenario, in order to assess its detectability at accelerators and with DM experiments. We derive in particular the most probable range of mass and scattering cross sections off nucleons, keeping into account cosmological and electroweak precision constraints. The consequences for the detectability of the {gamma}{sub 1} with direct and indirect experiments are dramatic. The spin-independent cross section probability distribution peaks at {approx} 10{sup -11} pb, i.e. below the sensitivity of ton-scale experiments. The spin-dependent cross-section drives the predicted neutrino flux from the center of the Sun below the reach of present and upcoming experiments. The only strategy that remains open appears to be direct detection with ton-scale experiments sensitive to spin-dependent cross-sections. On the other hand, the LHC with 1 fb{sup -1} of data should be able to probe the current best-fit UED parameters.
Bertone, Gianfranco; /Zurich U. /Paris, Inst. Astrophys.; Kong, Kyoungchul; /SLAC /Kansas U.; de Austri, Roberto Ruiz; /Valencia U., IFIC; Trotta, Roberto; /Imperial Coll., London
An integrated multi-criteria scenario evaluation web tool for participatory land-use planning in urbanized areas: The Ecosystem Portfolio Model
Land-use land-cover change is one of the most important and direct drivers of changes in ecosystem functions and services. Given the complexity of the decision-making, there is a need for Internet-based decision support systems with scenario evaluation ... Keywords: Decision support, Ecological value, Ecosystem restoration, Land-use planning, Quality of life, Sea level rise mitigation, Sustainability
W. B. Labiosa; W. M. Forney; A. -M. Esnard; D. Mitsova-Boneva; R. Bernknopf; P. Hearn; D. Hogan; L. Pearlstine; D. Strong; H. Gladwin; E. Swain
China's sustainable energy future: Scenarios of energy and carbon emissions (Summary)
energy use. China's Sustainable Energy Future Summary next31 -ii- China's Sustainable Energy Future Executive Summarystudy, entitled China's Sustainable Energy Future: Scenarios
and Economic Policy Sustainable Energy Development Research,The China Sustainable Energy Program, Energy Foundation [8]Zhu,Y. , 2003. China's Sustainable Energy Scenarios in 2020,
Zhou, Nan
Development of Digital Mock-Up for the Assessment of Dismantling Scenarios
As the number of superannuated research reactors and nuclear power plants increase, dismantling nuclear power facilities has become a big issue. However, decommissioning a nuclear facility is still a costly and possibly hazardous task. So prior to an actual decommission, what should be done foremost is to establish a proper procedure. Due to the fact that a significant difference in cost, exposure to a radiation, and safety might occur, a proper procedure is imperative for the entire engineering process. The purpose of this paper is to develop a system for evaluating the decommissioning scenarios logically and systematically. So a digital mockup system with functions such as a dismantling schedule, decommissioning costs, wastes, worker's exposure dose, and a radiation distribution was developed. Also on the basis of the quantitative information calculated from a DMU system and the data evaluated by decommissioning experts about qualitatively evaluating the items, the best decommissioning scenarios were established by using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method. Finally, the DMU was implemented in the thermal column of KRR-1 and adequate scenarios were provided after comparing and analyzing the two scenarios. In this paper, we developed the virtual environment of KRR-1 by using computer graphic technology and simulating the dismantling processes. The data-computing modules were also developed for quantitatively comparing the decommissioning scenarios. The decommissioning DMU system was integrated with both the VE system and the data-computing modules. In addition, we presented a decision-making method for selecting the best decommissioning scenario through the AHP. So the scenarios can be evaluated logically and quantitatively through the decommissioning DMU. As an implementation of the AHP, the plasma cutting scenario and the nibbler cutting scenario of the thermal column were prioritized. The fact that the plasma cutting scenario ranked the better than the nibbler cutting scenario is that the plasma scenario mostly got the higher scores than the nibbler scenario in the decommissioning cost and safety sections that have high weighting factors. Finally we decided that the plasma cutting scenario is appropriate to dismantle the thermal column. This study has a great meaning in that it can present a reliable scenario through the decommissioning DMU system while this work had only been done through a subjective evaluation in the past. The DMU system will be applied to the KRR-1 decommissioning project to obtain the best scenarios. We believe it will be a useful engineering tool for other nuclear facility decommissioning.
Kim, Sung-Kyun; Park, Hee-Sung; Lee, Kune-Woo; Jung, Chong-Hun [150, Dukjin-Dong, Yuseong-Gu, Daejeon, 305-353 (Korea, Republic of)
Scenarios for Benefits Analysis of Energy Research, Development, Demonstration and Deployment
18 Figure 7 Total Non-Renewable Energy24 Figure 17 Total Non-Renewable EnergyFigure 31 Total Non-Renewable Energy Expenses in Scenarios
Numerical test of the Gribov-Zwanziger scenario in Landau gauge
We review the status of lattice simulations of gluon and ghost propagators in Landau gauge, testing predictions of the Gribov-Zwanziger confinement scenario.
Attilio Cucchieri; Tereza Mendes
Oil Prices.of Figures and Tables Figure 1. World Oil Price Trajectory31 Figure 27 World Oil Price in Scenarios 0, 4 and
Hydrogen Delivery Model for H2A Analysis: A Spreadsheet Model For Hydrogen Delivery Scenarios
FINAL REPORT HYDROGEN DELIVERY MODEL FOR H2AA SPREADSHEET MODEL FOR HYDROGEN DELIVERY SCENARIOS Joan M.Department of Energy Hydrogen, Fuel Cells and Infrastructure
Ogden, Joan
Hydrogen Delivery Model for H2A Analysis: A Spreadsheet Model for Hydrogen Delivery Scenarios
Ogden, Joan M
Energy Laboratory. Natural Gas Price Scenarios Amongvolatile-priced. 4 Future natural gas prices are also highlysection we benchmark the natural gas prices contained in the
Report on a workshop on transportation-accident scenarios involving spent fuel
Much confusion and skepticism resulted from the scenarios for transportation accidents involving spent fuel that have been presented in environmental impact statements because the supporting assumptions and conclusions from the scenarios did not always appear to be consistent. As a result, the Transportation Technology Center gathered a group whose participants were experts in disciplines related to the transport of spent fuel to consider the scenarios. The group made a number of recommendations about scenario development and about areas in need of further study. This report documents the discussions held and the recommendations and conclusions of the group.
Wilmot, E.L.; McClure, J.D.; Luna, R.E.
An Analysis of Near-Term Hydrogen Vehicle Rollout Scenarios for Southern California
electricity from grid or solar PV. We developed scenarios tovia grid) Onsite electrolysis (Solar PV at station) Table 10ONSITE ELECTROLYSIS: 100% Solar PV $20/kg Electricity for
Nicholas, Michael A; Ogden, J
Electrification and Mitigation: Long-Term GHG Deep-Cut Scenario...
and de-carbonization of power generation is most likely to evolve in the future. The scenario analysis demonstrates the unique and important contribution of the Japanese...
Agenda for the 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel...
1:00 pm Program stakeholders convene in 2 parallel breakout groups to discuss scenario analysis results and provide feedback on the following focus questions: Does the...
Proposed methodology for completion of scenario analysis for the Basalt Waste Isolation Project. [Assessment of post-closure performance for a proposed repository for high-level nuclear waste
This report presents the methodology to complete an assessment of postclosure performance, considering all credible scenarios, including the nominal case, for a proposed repository for high-level nuclear waste at the Hanford Site, Washington State. The methodology consists of defensible techniques for identifying and screening scenarios, and for then assessing the risks associated with each. The results of the scenario analysis are used to comprehensively determine system performance and/or risk for evaluation of compliance with postclosure performance criteria (10 CFR 60 and 40 CFR 191). In addition to describing the proposed methodology, this report reviews available methodologies for scenario analysis, discusses pertinent performance assessment and uncertainty concepts, advises how to implement the methodology (including the organizational requirements and a description of tasks) and recommends how to use the methodology in guiding future site characterization, analysis, and engineered subsystem design work. 36 refs., 24 figs., 1 tab.
Roberds, W.J.; Plum, R.J.; Visca, P.J.
Scenario analysis of hybrid class 3-7 heavy vehicles.
The effects of hybridization on heavy-duty vehicles are not well understood. Heavy vehicles represent a broader range of applications than light-duty vehicles, resulting in a wide variety of chassis and engine combinations, as well as diverse driving conditions. Thus, the strategies, incremental costs, and energy/emission benefits associated with hybridizing heavy vehicles could differ significantly from those for passenger cars. Using a modal energy and emissions model, they quantify the potential energy savings of hybridizing commercial Class 3-7 heavy vehicles, analyze hybrid configuration scenarios, and estimate the associated investment cost and payback time. From the analysis, they conclude that (1) hybridization can significantly reduce energy consumption of Class 3-7 heavy vehicles under urban driving conditions; (2) the grid-independent, conventional vehicle (CV)-like hybrid is more cost-effective than the grid-dependent, electric vehicle (EV)-like hybrid, and the parallel configuration is more cost-effective than the series configuration; (3) for CV-like hybridization, the on-board engine can be significantly downsized, with a gasoline or diesel engine used for SUVs perhaps being a good candidate for an on-board engine; (4) over the long term, the incremental cost of a CV-like, parallel-configured Class 3-4 hybrid heavy vehicle is about %5,800 in the year 2005 and $3,000 in 2020, while for a Class 6-7 truck, it is about $7,100 in 2005 and $3,300 in 2020; and (5) investment payback time, which depends on the specific type and application of the vehicle, averages about 6 years under urban driving conditions in 2005 and 2--3 years in 2020.
An, F.; Stodolsky, F.; Vyas, A.; Cuenca, R.; Eberhardt, J. J.
Scenarios for a Clean Energy Future Transportation 6.1
automotive manufacturers have announced commercial introductions of hybrid vehicles five to ten years sooner turnover of fleets, gasoline's dominance of light-duty vehicle fueling infrastructure, and low energy vehicles are included, as in the case here. Recent studies limited to a 10-year time horizon suggest
Fondazione Eni Enrico MatteiEnvironmental Externalities of Geological Carbon Sequestration Effects on Energy Scenarios Summary
Geological carbon sequestration seems one of the promising options to address, in the near term, the global problem of climate change, since carbon sequestration technologies are in principle available today and their costs are expected to be affordable. Whereas extensive technological and economic feasibility studies rightly point out the large potential of this 'clean fossil fuel ' option, relatively little attention has been paid so far to the detrimental environmental externalities that the sequestering of CO2 underground could entail. This paper assesses what the relevance might be of including these external effects in long-term energy planning and scenario analyses. Our main conclusion is that, while these effects are generally likely to be relatively small, carbon sequestration externalities do matter and influence the nature of future world energy supply and consumption. More importantly, since geological carbon storage (depending on the method employed) may in some cases have substantial external impacts, in terms of both environmental damage and health risks, it is recommended that extensive studies are performed to quantify these effects. This article addresses three main questions: (i) What may energy supply look like if one accounts for large-scale CO2 sequestration in the construction of long-term energy and
Koen Smekens; Bob Van Der Zwaan; Nota Di Lavoro
Corrosion and Potential Subsidence Scenarios for Buried B-25 Waste Containers
This report describes various scenarios to be modeled for static loading of B-25 containers in Engineered Trench number 1 (ET) at the Department of Energy's (DOE's) Savannah River Site in Aiken, South Carolina. Scenario information includes the static load to be used, estimated B-25 steel-volume loss with time due to corrosion, and waste characteristics.
Jones, W.E.
ARCADE - abstraction and realization of complex event scenarios using dynamic rule creation
This system capitalizes on the fact that the complex event scenarios in an industry are repetitive in nature. It abstracts these scenarios into reusable templates with configurable parameters. This is an advantage that the system brings over the existing ... Keywords: business event, complex event processing
Ashish A. Kulkarni
SCENARIOS FOR AN AUTONOMIC MICRO SMART GRID Sylvain Frey1,2
SCENARIOS FOR AN AUTONOMIC MICRO SMART GRID Sylvain Frey1,2 , François Huguet1 , Cédric Mivielle1 Systems, Micro Smart Grids. Abstract: Autonomic computing is a bio-inspired vision elaborated to manage presents a series of scenarios relative to micro smart grids  district-size "smart" electricity networks
Diaconescu, Ada
U.S. Mercury Deposition Under Alternative Regulatory Scenarios
The Federal Clean Air Mercury Rule regulates electric utility mercury emissions while permitting individual states to enact stricter rules at their discretion. Computer modeling has shown how mercury deposition patterns will change if all regulated utility power plants follow the Federal rule, vs. alternative state rules. These patterns of deposition can be compared to the limiting case: what if all U.S. utility mercury emissions were zeroed out? The findings show that regulations stricter than the Feder...
Benefit/cost comparisons of SMES in system-specific application scenarios
The inherently high storage efficiency, instantaneous dispatch capability and multi-function uses of superconducting magnetic energy storage (SMES) are attributes that give it the potential for widespread application in the electric utility industry. Opportunities appear to exist where SMES at a given location could provide multiple benefits either simultaneously or sequentially as system conditions dictate. These benefits, including diurnal storage and system stability and dynamic control enhancement, increase the application potential of SMES to a larger number of opportunities than might be justified by the value of its diurnal storage capability alone. However, the benefits an individual utility may realize from SMES applications are strongly influenced by the characteristics of the utility system, the location of the SMES unit and the timing of its installation in the system. Such benefits are typically not evaluated adequately in generic studies. This paper summarizes results of case studies performed by Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) with funding provided by the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) and the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI). The derivation of SMES benefits and costs are described and benefit/cost (B/C) ratios are compared in system-specific scenarios of interest to BPA. Results of using the DYNASTORE production cost model show the sensitivity of B/C ratios to SMES capacity and power and to the forecast system load. Intermediate-size SMES applications which primarily provide system stability and dynamic control enhancement are reviewed. The potential for SMES to levelize the output of a wind energy complex is also assessed. Most of the cases show SMES to provide a positive net benefit with the additional, sometimes surprising indication, that B/C ratios and net present worth of intermediate-size units can exceed those of larger systems.
De Steese, J.G.; Dagle, J.E.; Kreid, D.K. [Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (United States); Haner, J.M.; Myers, W.E. [Bonneville Power Administration, Portland, OR (United States)
Peru-Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS) | Open Energy Information
Peru-Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS) Peru-Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS) Jump to: navigation, search Logo: Peru-Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS) Name Peru-Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS) Agency/Company /Organization The Children's Investment Fund Foundation, SouthSouthNorth, University of Cape Town-Energy Research Centre, Danish Government Sector Climate, Energy Topics Baseline projection, Low emission development planning, -LEDS, -NAMA, Pathways analysis Website http://www.mapsprogramme.org Program Start 2010 Program End 2013 Country Peru South America References Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS)[1] Contents 1 Overview 2 MAPS Processes and Outcomes 2.1 Chile 2.2 Colombia 2.3 Peru 2.4 Brazil 2.5 Resources 2.5.1 Mitigation Action Country Studies
Development based climate change adaptation and mitigation-conceptual...
analytical tools have been used in the studies including quantitative and qualitative scenario work as well as detailed micro-based analysis. The methodological conclusion that...
Intensity, duration, and frequency of precipitation extremes under 21st-century warming scenarios
Recent research on the projection of precipitation extremes has either focused on conceptual physical mechanisms that generate heavy precipitation or rigorous statistical methods that extrapolate tail behavior. However, informing both climate prediction and impact assessment requires concurrent physically and statistically oriented analysis. A combined examination of climate model simulations and observation-based reanalysis data sets suggests more intense and frequent precipitation extremes under 21st-century warming scenarios. Utilization of statistical extreme value theory and resampling-based uncertainty quantification combined with consideration of the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship reveals consistently intensifying trends for precipitation extremes at a global-average scale. However, regional and decadal analyses reveal specific discrepancies in the physical mechanisms governing precipitation extremes, as well as their statistical trends, especially in the tropics. The intensifying trend of precipitation extremes has quantifiable impacts on intensity-duration-frequency curves, which in turn have direct implications for hydraulic engineering design and water-resources management. The larger uncertainties at regional and decadal scales suggest the need for caution during regional-scale adaptation or preparedness decisions. Future research needs to explore the possibility of uncertainty reduction through higher resolution global climate models, statistical or dynamical downscaling, as well as improved understanding of precipitation extremes processes.
Kao, Shih-Chieh [ORNL; Ganguly, Auroop R [ORNL
Scenario-Driven Automatic Pattern Recognition in Nowcasting
The purpose of this paper is to illustrate how the construction of a knowledge-based system (KBS) to support nowcasting, can be used to guide and facilitate the development of objective pattern recognition algorithms for use with meteorological ...
Robert C. Mcarthur; James R. Davis; David Reynolds
A climate-hydrology scenario library approach to watershed management...
6 and an azole-type corrosion inhibitor is used to protect the copper-based admiralty brass metallurgy of the main condenser. 6 Calcium sulfate is the limiting scale-forming salt...
Methods for Applying Risk Analysis to Fire Scenarios (MARIAFIRES)
The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) approved the risk-informed and performance-based alternative regulation 10 CFR 50.48(c) in July 2004, which allows licensees the option of using fire protection requirements contained in the National Fire Protection Association (NFPA) Standard 805, "Performance Based Standard for Fire Protection for Light-Water Reactor Electric Generating Plants, 2001 Edition," with certain exceptions. To support licensees' use of that option, NRC and the Electric Power Resear...
cells decreases (and the cost per kWh increases). If vehiclebetween NiMH battery cost per kWh (and per kilogram (kg))meter, and a variable, per kWh cost. SCE has two different
centimeter or cubic centimeters CNG = compressed natural gascompressed natural gas (CNG) refueling stations providessimilar cylinders for storing CNG. In general, the cost of a
and to capture regenerative braking energy, or a simplerto recapture regenerative braking energy over a modestto recapture regenerative braking energy and to meet vehicle
compact and light, but quite complex, consisting of vacuum-insulated, heat-shielded, double-walled containers with pumps and heat exchangers.
Consolidation of public safety wireless networks: An options-based economic analysis of numerous scenarios
The Korean National Emergency Management Agency proposed to replace existing public safety wireless networks of 46 agencies with a nation-wide consolidated network. This study compares the public-private partnership alternative of sharing a network with ... Keywords: Consolidation, Exploratory modeling, Feasibility study, Public safety wireless network, Public-private partnership, Real option analysis
Sungho Lee
a unique city car," Eletric and Hybrid Vehicle TechnologyB. Purcell, "Stepping Ahead," Eletric and Hybrid VehicleJ. Wallace, "Electric Dreams," Eletric and Hybrid Vehicle
such that sufficient battery capacity exists to recapturethe technology. The battery capacity needed to recapture thewith the higher capacity battery pack. Holding battery pack
Architecting a family of space tugs based on orbital transfer mission scenarios
The consequences of satellite misplacement or collision with space debris reach far beyond the realm of money. The vast number of people affected by the loss of just one spacecraft indicates the vulnerability of our society ...
Galabova, Kalina K., 1976-
hydrogen fuel could then be compressed into a liquid and delivered to filling stationshydrogen per day, which would be enough to refuel about 500 vehicles each day. Each filling station
Task-based scanpath assessment of multi-sensor video fusion in complex scenarios
The combining of visible light and infrared visual representations occurs naturally in some creatures, including the rattlesnake. This process, and the wide-spread use of multi-spectral multi-sensor systems, has influenced research into image fusion ... Keywords: Eye-tracking, Image fusion, Psychophysics, Scanpath analysis, Video assessment
Timothy D. Dixon; Stavri G. Nikolov; John J. Lewis; Jian Li; Eduardo Fernandez Canga; Jan M. Noyes; Tom Troscianko; Dave R. Bull; C. Nishan Canagarajah
Vehicle Transport Futures: U.S. and China Scenarios based on CarCarbon
of Agriculture is backing the work of Dr. Samy Sadaka to convert crops and crop wastes into biodiesel fuel with local retailers to purchase the bikes and equipment. Williams purchased mountain bikes in various sizes sales and sales to wineries, she says. Produce retailers will work with growers who can meet
Delaware, University of
prices have made natural gas power plants the technology ofthan if natural gas and other types of power plants are
A Collaborative Case Study System for Distance Learning
Distance Learning from Case Studies involves enabling collaboration between two or more learners at a distance on a case study activity. In this paper we present an empirical qualitative study that simulates a learning scenario in which a pair of subjects ...
Marta C. Rosatelli; John A. Self
Higgs boson searches in CP-conserving and CP-violating MSSM scenarios with the DELPHI detector
This paper presents the final interpretation of the results from DELPHI on the searches for Higgs bosons in the Minimal Supersymmetric extension of the Standard Model (MSSM). A few representative scenarios are considered, that include CP conservation and explicit CP violation in the Higgs sector. The experimental results encompass the searches for neutral Higgs bosons at LEP1 and LEP2 in final states as expected in the MSSM, as well as LEP2 searches for charged Higgs bosons and for neutral Higgs bosons decaying into hadrons independent of the quark flavour. The data reveal no significant excess with respect to background expectations. The results are translated into excluded regions of the parameter space in the various scenarios. In the CP-conserving case, these lead to limits on the masses of the lightest scalar and pseudoscalar Higgs bosons, h and A, and on tan(beta). The dependence of these limits on the top quark mass is discussed. Allowing for CP violation reduces the experimental sensitivity to Higgs bosons. It is shown that this effect depends strongly on the values of the parameters responsible for CP violation in the Higgs sector.
DELPHI Collaboration; J. Abdallah
Electric and Hybrid Vehicle System Research and Development Project: Hybrid Vehicle Potential Assessment. Volume VIII. Scenario generation
Scenarios are described which have been generated in support of the Hybrid Vehicle Potential Assessment Task under the JPL Electric and Hybrid Vehicle Systems Research and Development Project. The primary function of the scenario generation is to develop a set of consistent and credible forecasts required to estimate the potential impact of hybrid vehicles on future petroleum consumption in the USA, given a set of specific electric, hybrid and conventional vehicle designs. The forecasts are limited to the next 32 years (1978 to 2010. The four major areas of concern are: population and vehicle fleet size; travel patterns and vehicle fleet mix; conventional vehicle technology (Otto baseline); battery technology; and prices. The forecasts have been generated to reflect two baseline scenarios, a Petroleum Conservation Scenario (Scenario A) and an Energy Conservation Scenario (Scenario B). The primary assumption in Scenario A is higher gasoline prices than in Scenario B. This should result in less travel per car and an increased demand for smaller and more fuel efficient cars (compared to Scenario B). In Scenario B the primary assumption is higher prices on cars (new as well as used) than in Scenario A. This should lead to less cars (compared to Scenario A) and a shift to other modes of transportation.
Leschly, K.O.
Extreme Climate Event Trends: The Data Mining and Evaluation of the A1FI Scenario for 2000???2100
The authors discuss the implications and resulting alterations of the hydrologic cycle as Earth climate evolves from 2000-2100. Climate simulations based on the assumptions implicit in the A1F1 scenario for the period 2000-2100 using CCSM3 are analyzed. In particular, we will assess the changes in the surface latent and sensible heat energy budget, the Indian regional water budgets including trends in the timing and duration of the Indian monsoon and the resulting impacts on mean river flow and hydroelectric power generation potential. These analyses will also be examined within the context of heat index, droughts, floods and related estimates of societal robustness and resiliency. We will interpret these new A1F1 results within the context of the previous climate simulations based on the SRES A2 and B1 scenarios forced with land cover and atmospheric CO2. Analyses of historical records in the context of the Indian Monsoon Rainfall (IMR) have suggested an evolving relation of IMR with natural climate variability caused by El Nino events. We will report on the combined effects of natural climate variability and global warming on IMR and assess the trend of extreme rain and temperature events in a warming environment.
Erickson III, David J [ORNL; Ganguly, Auroop R [ORNL; Steinhaeuser, Karsten J K [ORNL; Branstetter, Marcia L [ORNL; Oglesby, Robert [University of Nebraska, Lincoln; Hoffman, Forrest M [ORNL; Buja, Lawrence [National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)
A Qualitative Assessment of Diversion Scenarios for an Example Sodium Fast Reactor Using the GEN IV PR&PP Methodology
FAST REACTORS;NUCLEAR ENERGY;NUCLEAR MATERIALS MANAGEMENT;PROLIFERATION;SAFEGUARDS;THEFT; A working group was created in 2002 by the Generation IV International Forum (GIF) for the purpose of developing an internationally accepted methodology for assessing the Proliferation Resistance of a nuclear energy system (NES) and its individual elements. A two year case study is being performed by the experts group using this methodology to assess the proliferation resistance of a hypothetical NES called the Example Sodium Fast Reactor (ESFR). This work demonstrates how the PR and PP methodology can be used to provide important information at various levels of details to NES designers, safeguard administrators and decision makers. The study analyzes the response of the complete ESFR nuclear energy system to different proliferation and theft strategies. The challenges considered include concealed diversion, concealed misuse and 'break out' strategies. This paper describes the work done in performing a qualitative assessment of concealed diversion scenarios from the ESFR.
Zentner, Michael D.; Coles, Garill A.; Therios, Ike
South Africa-Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS) | Open Energy
Page Page Edit with form History Facebook icon Twitter icon » South Africa-Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS) Jump to: navigation, search Logo: Argentina-Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS) Name Argentina-Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS) Agency/Company /Organization The Children's Investment Fund Foundation, SouthSouthNorth, University of Cape Town-Energy Research Centre, Danish Government Sector Climate, Energy Topics Baseline projection, Low emission development planning, -LEDS, -NAMA, Pathways analysis Website http://www.mapsprogramme.org Program Start 2010 Program End 2013 Country South Africa Southern Africa References Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS)[1] Contents 1 Overview 2 MAPS Processes and Outcomes 2.1 Chile
Influencing managerial cognition and decisions using scenarios for long-range planning
This dissertation presents empirical findings related to two aspects of long-range planning: scenario planning as a planning method and cognition of planners. Long-range planning situations are encountered when designing ...
Phadnis, Shardul Sharad, 1978-
Conversion and Cogeneration Systems. Berkeley, California: Energy andto usable energy. The least efficient fuel conversion systemconversion systems: in a high par- ticipation scenario, it ranks first, while at a medium level of participation the energy
Authors, Various
Lifecycle Cost and GHG Implications of a Hydrogen Energy Storage Scenario (Presentation)
Overview of life cycle cost and green house gas implications of a hydrogen energy storage scenario presented at the National Hydrogen Association Conference & Expo, Long Beach, CA, May 3-6, 2010
Steward, D. M.
review work conduced by EERE contractors, see Aabakken, J.earlier study commissioned by EERE. 3 We conclude this paperbenefits estimation, and the FE-EERE Scenarios Working Group
Climate and Climate Impact Scenarios for Europe in a Warmer World
Scenarios for Europe in a warmer world, such as may result from increased atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, have been constructed using the early 20th century warming as an analogue. Mean temperature, Precipitation and pressure patterns for the ...
J. M. Lough; T. M. L. Wigley; J. P. Palutikof
Decadal Climatic Variability, Trends, and Future Scenarios for the North China Plain
Observed decadal climatic variability and trends for the north China plain (NCP) are assessed for significance with Kendall's test and discussed in light of future climate scenarios from multi-GCM outputs from the Intergovernmental Panel on ...
Guobin Fu; Stephen P. Charles; Jingjie Yu; Changming Liu
Emission Scenario Dependency of Precipitation on Global Warming in the MIROC3.2 Model
The precipitation sensitivity per 1 K of global warming in twenty-first-century climate projections is smaller in an emission scenario with larger greenhouse gas concentrations and aerosol emissions, according to the Model for Interdisciplinary ...
Hideo Shiogama; Seita Emori; Kiyoshi Takahashi; Tatsuya Nagashima; Tomoo Ogura; Toru Nozawa; Toshihiko Takemura
On the Development of Regional Climatic Scenarios for Policy-Oriented Climatic-Impact Assessment
A review on the development of climatic scenarios related to policy-oriented assessment of the impact of climatic variations is presented. It seeks to provide background information needed to evaluate the extent to which existing regional ...
Peter J. Lamb
The Potential Impacts of a Scenario of C02-Induced Climatic Change on Ontafio, Canada
In 1984, Environment Canada, Ontario Region, with financial and expert support from the Canadian Climate Program, initiated an interdisciplinary pilot study to investigate the potential impact, on Ontario, of a climate scenario which might be ...
S. J. Cohen; T. R. Allsopp
A Dynamical Interpretation of the Poleward Shift of the Jet Streams in Global Warming Scenarios
The role played by enhanced upper-tropospheric baroclinicity in the poleward shift of the jet streams in global warming scenarios is investigated. Major differences between the twentieth- and twenty-first-century simulations are first detailed ...
Gwendal Rivičre
Improved Offshore Wind Resource Assessment in Global Climate Stabilization Scenarios
This paper introduces a technique for digesting geospatial wind-speed data into areally defined -- country-level, in this case -- wind resource supply curves. We combined gridded wind-vector data for ocean areas with bathymetry maps, country exclusive economic zones, wind turbine power curves, and other datasets and relevant parameters to build supply curves that estimate a country's offshore wind resource defined by resource quality, depth, and distance-from-shore. We include a single set of supply curves -- for a particular assumption set -- and study some implications of including it in a global energy model. We also discuss the importance of downscaling gridded wind vector data to capturing the full resource potential, especially over land areas with complex terrain. This paper includes motivation and background for a statistical downscaling methodology to account for terrain effects with a low computational burden. Finally, we use this forum to sketch a framework for building synthetic electric networks to estimate transmission accessibility of renewable resource sites in remote areas.
Arent, D.; Sullivan, P.; Heimiller, D.; Lopez, A.; Eurek, K.; Badger, J.; Jorgensen, H. E.; Kelly, M.; Clarke, L.; Luckow, P.
A UML-based method for risk analysis of human-robot interactions
Safety is a major concern for robots that interact physically with humans. We propose a risk analysis method based on deviation analysis of system usage scenarios that allows the identification of major risks. Scenarios are described with the common ... Keywords: HAZOP, UML, risk analysis, safety, scenario
Damien Martin-Guillerez; Jérémie Guiochet; David Powell; Christophe Zanon
Getting to necessary and sufficient-developing accident scenarios for risk assessment
This paper presents a simple, systematic approach for developing accident scenarios using generic accident types. Result is a necessary and sufficient set of accident scenarios that can be used to establish the safety envelope for a facility or operation. Us of this approach along with the methodology of SAND95-0320 will yield more consistent accident analyses between facilities and provide a sound basis for allocating limited risk reduction resources.
Mahn, J.A.
Group Member Names: ________________________________________________ Scenario: You are the owner of a potato plant in Idaho. You have recently won a contract
: ________________________________________________ ________________________________________________ ________________________________________________ Scenario: You are the owner of a potato plant in Idaho. You have recently won a contract to supply Mc
Provancher, William
It is important to understand and quantify the potential risk resulting from accidental environmental exposure of condensed phase hydrogen storage materials under differing environmental exposure scenarios. This paper describes a modeling and experimental study with the aim of predicting consequences of the accidental release of 2LiBH{sub 4}+MgH{sub 2} from hydrogen storage systems. The methodology and results developed in this work are directly applicable to any solid hydride material and/or accident scenario using appropriate boundary conditions and empirical data. The ability to predict hydride behavior for hypothesized accident scenarios facilitates an assessment of the of risk associated with the utilization of a particular hydride. To this end, an idealized finite volume model was developed to represent the behavior of dispersed hydride from a breached system. Semiempirical thermodynamic calculations and substantiating calorimetric experiments were performed in order to quantify the energy released, energy release rates and to quantify the reaction products resulting from water and air exposure of a lithium borohydride and magnesium hydride combination. The hydrides, LiBH{sub 4} and MgH{sub 2}, were studied individually in the as-received form and in the 2:1 'destabilized' mixture. Liquid water hydrolysis reactions were performed in a Calvet calorimeter equipped with a mixing cell using neutral water. Water vapor and oxygen gas phase reactivity measurements were performed at varying relative humidities and temperatures by modifying the calorimeter and utilizing a gas circulating flow cell apparatus. The results of these calorimetric measurements were compared with standardized United Nations (UN) based test results for air and water reactivity and used to develop quantitative kinetic expressions for hydrolysis and air oxidation in these systems. Thermodynamic parameters obtained from these tests were then inputted into a computational fluid dynamics model to predict both the hydrogen generation rates and concentrations along with localized temperature distributions. The results of these numerical simulations can be used to predict ignition events and the resultant conclusions will be discussed.
James, C; David Tamburello, D; Joshua Gray, J; Kyle Brinkman, K; Bruce Hardy, B; Donald Anton, D
Determination of Effective Emittance and a Radiatively Equivalent Microphysical Model of Cirrus from Ground-Based and Satellite Observations during the International Cirrus Experiment: The 18 October 1989 Case Study
Ground-based observations and satellite data have been compared for the 18 October 1989 case study of the International Cirrus Experiment (ICE) field campaign. They correspond to thin cirrus clouds with infrared emittances in the range 0–0.3. ...
G. Brogniez; J. C. Buriez; V. Giraud; F. Parol; C. Vanbauce
Astrophysical implications of the Asymptotic Safety Scenario in Quantum Gravity
In recent years it has emerged that the high energy behavior of gravity could be governed by an ultraviolet non-Gaussian fixed point of the (dimensionless) Newton's constant, whose behavior at high energy is thus {\\it antiscreened}. This phenomenon has several astrophysical implications. In particular in this article recent works on renormalization group improved cosmologies based upon a renormalization group trajectory of Quantum Einstein Gravity with realistic parameter values will be reviewed. It will be argued that quantum effects can account for the entire entropy of the present Universe in the massless sector and give rise to a phase of inflationary expansion. Moreover the prediction for the final state of the black hole evaporation is a Planck size remnant which is formed in an infinite time.
Bonanno, Alfio
A possible scenario for volumetric display through nanoparticle suspensions
We discuss on the potential of suspensions of gold nanoparticles with variable refractive index for the possible physical realization of in-relief virtual dynamic display of plane images. A reasoning approach for a vision system to display in real-time volumetric moving images is proposed based on well-known properties of optical media, namely the anomalous dispersion of light on certain transparent media and the virtual image formed by a refracting transparent surface. The system relies on creating mechanisms to modify the refractive index of in-relief virtual dynamical display (iVDD) bulbs that ideally would contain a suspension of gold nanoparticles each and that might be ordered in an array filling up a whole screen.
E. Canessa
A Case Study to Evaluate the Reliability Impact of Large-Scale Wind Generation: Incorporating Variable Generation and Loads into Rel iability-based Transmission Planning
This report describes a case study using a probabilistic framework to capture variations in output of variable generation connected to the transmission system along with system loads. The research in 2010, 2011, and some part of 2012 focused on developing the probabilistic model framework. The focus of the 2012 work was to use this model on a real-world (as opposed to a test system) transmission planning case along with data for all the variable generation and system loads modeled in the case to ...
Fuel Cycle Scenario Definition, Evaluation, and Trade-offs
This report aims to clarify many of the issues being discussed within the AFCI program, including Inert Matrix Fuel (IMF) versus Mixed Oxide (MOX) fuel, single-pass versus multi-pass recycling, thermal versus fast reactors, potential need for transmutation of technetium and iodine, and the value of separating cesium and strontium. It documents most of the work produced by INL, ANL, and SNL personnel under their Simulation, Evaluation, and Trade Study (SETS) work packages during FY2005 and the first half of FY2006. This report represents the first attempt to calculate a full range of metrics, covering all four AFCI program objectives - waste management, proliferation resistance, energy recovery, and systematic management/economics/safety - using a combination of "static" calculations and a system dynamic model, DYMOND. In many cases, we examine the same issue both dynamically and statically to determine the robustness of the observations. All analyses are for the U.S. reactor fleet. This is a technical report, not aimed at a policy-level audience. A wide range of options are studied to provide the technical basis for identifying the most attractive options and potential improvements. Option improvement could be vital to accomplish before the AFCI program publishes definitive cost estimates. Information from this report will be extracted and summarized in future policy-level reports. Many dynamic simulations of deploying those options are included. There are few "control knobs" for flying or piloting the fuel cycle system into the future, even though it is dark (uncertain) and controls are sluggish with slow time response: what types of reactors are built, what types of fuels are used, and the capacity of separation and fabrication plants. Piloting responsibilities are distributed among utilities, government, and regulators, compounding the challenge of making the entire system work and respond to changing circumstances. We identify four approaches that would increase our ability to pilot the fuel cycle system: (1) have a recycle strategy that could be implemented before the 2030-2050 approximate period when current reactors retire so that replacement reactors fit into the strategy, (2) establish an option such as multi-pass blended-core IMF as a downward plutonium control knob and accumulate waste management benefits early, (3) establish fast reactors with flexible conversion ratio as a future control knob that slowly becomes available if/when fast reactors are added to the fleet, and (4) expand exploration of blended assemblies and cores, which appear to have advantages and agility. Initial results suggest multi-pass full-core MOX appears to be a less effective way than multi-pass blended core IMF to manage the fuel cycle system because it requires higher TRU throughput while more slowly accruing waste management benefits. Single-pass recycle approaches for LWRs (we did not study the VHTR) do not meet AFCI program objectives and could be considered a "dead end". Fast reactors appear to be effective options but a significant number of fast reactors must be deployed before the benefit of such strategies can be observed.
Steven J. Piet; Gretchen E. Matthern; Jacob J. Jacobson; Christopher T. Laws; Lee C. Cadwallader; Abdellatif M. Yacout; Robert N. Hill; J. D. Smith; Andrew S. Goldmann; George Bailey
Crossing the Divide: A Case Study of Cross-Cultural Organizational Culture and Leadership Perceptions in a Faith-Based Non-Profit
For this qualitative research a single case study was conducted of a faith-based non-profit organization, Health Education and Literacy Providers (H.E.L.P.), which operates simultaneously in the United States and Nigeria. The purpose of this study was to explore the cross-cultural leadership phenomena occurring within H.E.L.P. and to provide evaluation services and research data to the American members of H.E.L.P. Participants included a sample of the American board members, Nigerian board members, and Nigerian employees. Three data collection methods were used to achieve triangulation including participant observations, interviews, and analysis of documents. The first research objective was to investigate the cross-cultural leadership context by analyzing the organizational culture of H.E.L.P. in Nigeria. Results revealed H.E.L.P. was designed by American board members to operate as a bureaucratic culture with an emphasis on a business-like structure, centralized authority, compartmentalization, and efficiency. The Nigerian board members and employees, however, expressed a desire for a supportive culture that focused on love and harmony uncovering a discrepancy between American and Nigerian preferences in organizational culture typology. The results from the Global Leadership and Organizational Behavior Effectiveness (GLOBE) study were referenced to provide a cultural explanation for variations in organizational culture preferences. According to GLOBE study findings, the United States ranked higher on performance orientation meaning Americans are more likely to value results above people, ambition, and competitiveness, and explains the American?s desire for a bureaucratic organizational culture. Nigeria ranked behind the United States as a lower performance oriented society meaning individuals place high value on relationships and harmony, explaining their desire for a supportive culture. The second and third research objectives were to determine how H.E.L.P.'s Nigerian members perceive effective leadership within their culture, and determine how the Nigerians? definition of effective leadership supports or refutes the literature on prevalent Westernized leadership theories. Results indicated the overarching leadership theme perceived to be effective by the Nigerian members of H.E.L.P. was love. Several aspects of a loving leader were evident in the data and divided into five categories each with one subcategory. These findings supported both Transformational and Authentic leadership theories.
Muenich, Joelle 1987-
Low carbon and clean energy scenarios for India: Analysis of targets approach
Low carbon energy technologies are gaining increasing importance in India for reducing emissions as well as diversifying its energy supply mix. The present paper presents and analyses a targeted approach for pushing solar, wind and nuclear technologies in the Indian energy market. Targets for these technologies have been constructed on the basis of Indian government documents, policy announcements and expert opinion. Different targets have been set for the reference scenario and the carbon price scenario. In the reference scenario it is found that in the long run all solar, wind and nuclear will achieve their targets without any subsidy push. In the short run however, nuclear and solar energy require significant subsidy push. Nuclear energy requires a much higher subsidy allocation as compared to solar because the targets assumed are also higher for nuclear energy. Under a carbon price scenario, the carbon price drives the penetration of these technologies significantly. Still subsidy is required especially in the short run when the carbon price is low. It is also found that pushing solar, wind and nuclear technologies might lead to decrease in share of CCS under the price scenario and biomass under both BAU and price scenario, which implies that one set of low carbon technologies is substituted by other set of low carbon technologies. Thus the objective of emission mitigation might not be achieved due to this substitution. Moreover sensitivity on nuclear energy cost was done to represent risk mitigation for this technology and it was found that higher cost can significantly decrease the share of this technology under both the BAU and carbon price scenario.
Shukla, Priyadarshi R.; Chaturvedi, Vaibhav
Renewable Energy and Efficiency Modeling Analysis Partnership: An Analysis of How Different Energy Models Addressed a Common High Renewable Energy Penetration Scenario in 2025
and Policy Case Capacity and Generation Comparison Generation (BkWh) Coal Natural Gasand policy cases were modified based on data provided by REMAP. Fuel Prices: The natural gas
Blair, N.
Comparing urban solid waste recycling from the viewpoint of urban metabolism based on physical input-output model: A case of Suzhou in China
Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Impacts of solid waste recycling on Suzhou's urban metabolism in 2015 are analyzed. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Sludge recycling for biogas is regarded as an accepted method. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Technical levels of reusing scrap tires and food wastes should be improved. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Other fly ash utilization methods should be exploited. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Secondary wastes from reusing food wastes and sludge should be concerned. - Abstract: Investigating impacts of urban solid waste recycling on urban metabolism contributes to sustainable urban solid waste management and urban sustainability. Using a physical input-output model and scenario analysis, urban metabolism of Suzhou in 2015 is predicted and impacts of four categories of solid waste recycling on urban metabolism are illustrated: scrap tire recycling, food waste recycling, fly ash recycling and sludge recycling. Sludge recycling has positive effects on reducing all material flows. Thus, sludge recycling for biogas is regarded as an accepted method. Moreover, technical levels of scrap tire recycling and food waste recycling should be improved to produce positive effects on reducing more material flows. Fly ash recycling for cement production has negative effects on reducing all material flows except solid wastes. Thus, other fly ash utilization methods should be exploited. In addition, the utilization and treatment of secondary wastes from food waste recycling and sludge recycling should be concerned.
Liang Sai, E-mail: email@example.com [School of Environment, State Key Joint Laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution Control, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); Zhang Tianzhu, E-mail: firstname.lastname@example.com [School of Environment, State Key Joint Laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution Control, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China)
Suggestions for benchmark scenarios for MSSM Higgs Boson searches at hadron colliders.
The Higgs boson search has shifted from LEP2 to the Tevatron and will subsequently move to the LHC. Due to the different initial states, the Higgs production and decay channels relevant for Higgs boson searches were different at LEP2 to what they are at hadron colliders. They suggest new benchmark scenarios for the MSSM Higgs boson search at hadron colliders that exemplify the phenomenology of different parts of the MSSM parameter space. Besides the m{sub h}{sup max} scenario and the no-mixing scenario used in the LEP2 Higgs boson searches, they propose two new scenarios. In one the main production channel at the LHC, gg {yields} h, is suppressed. In the other, important Higgs decay channels at the Tevatron and at the LCH, h {yields} b{bar b} and h {yields} {tau}{sup +}{tau}{sup -}, are suppressed. All scenarios evade the LEP2 constraints for nearly the whole M{sub A}-tan {beta}-plane.
Carena, M.; Heinemeyer, S.; Wagner, C.E.M.; Weiglein, G.
Progress on advanced tokamak and steady-state scenario development on DIII-D and NSTX
Advanced tokamak (AT) research seeks to develop steady-state operating scenarios for ITER and other future devices from a demonstrated scientific basis. Normalized target parameters for steady-state operation on ITER are 100% non-inductive current operation with a bootstrap current fraction f(BS) >= 60%, q(95) similar to 4-5 and G = beta H-N(scaling)/q(95)(2) >= 0.3. Progress in realizing such plasmas is considered in terms of the development of plasma control capabilities and scientific understanding, leading to improved AT performance. NSTX has demonstrated active resistive wall mode stabilization with low, ITER-relevant, rotation rates below the critical value required for passive stabilization. On DIII-D, experimental observations and GYRO simulations indicate that ion internal transport barrier (ITB) formation at rational-q surfaces is due to equilibrium zonal flows generating high local E x B shear levels. In addition, stability modelling for DIII-D indicates a path to operation at beta N >= 4 with q(min) >= 2, using broad, hollow current profiles to increase the ideal wall stability limit. Both NSTX and DIII-D have optimized plasma performance and expanded AT operational limits. NSTX now has long-pulse, high performance discharges meeting the normalized targets for an spherical torus-based component test facility. DIII-D has developed sustained discharges combining high beta and ITBs, with performance approaching levels required for AT reactor concepts, e. g. beta(N) = 4, H-89 = 2.5, with f(BS) > 60%. Most importantly, DIII-D has developed ITER steady-state demonstration discharges, simultaneously meeting the targets for steady-state Q >= 5 operation on ITER set out above, substantially increasing confidence in ITER meeting its steady-state performance objective.
Doyle, E. J. [University of California, Los Angeles; Peng, Yueng Kay Martin [ORNL
LEDSGP/Transportation Toolkit/Key Actions/Develop Alternative Scenarios |
Develop Alternative Scenarios Develop Alternative Scenarios < LEDSGP | Transportation Toolkit | Key Actions(Redirected from Transportation Toolkit/Key Actions/Develop Alternative Scenarios) Jump to: navigation, search LEDSGP Logo.png Transportation Toolkit Home Tools Training Contacts Key Actions for Low-Emission Development in Transportation Although no single approach or fixed process exists for low-emission development strategies (LEDS), the following key actions are necessary steps for implementing LEDS in the transportation sector. Undertaking these actions requires flexibility to adapt to dynamic societal conditions in a way that complements existing climate and development goals in other sectors. Planners, researchers, and decision-makers should customize this LEDS implementation framework for the specific conditions of their transport
Electrification and Mitigation: Long-Term GHG Deep-Cut Scenario Compatible
Electrification and Mitigation: Long-Term GHG Deep-Cut Scenario Compatible Electrification and Mitigation: Long-Term GHG Deep-Cut Scenario Compatible with Economic Development Speaker(s): Taishi Sugiyama Date: August 6, 2007 - 12:00pm Location: 90-3122 Seminar Host/Point of Contact: Lynn Price We have analyzed scenarios of Japanese energy systems in the 21st century with special focus on the electrification and climate change mitigation. We have described the causality pathway as to how the major drivers will have impacts on the structure of energy systems and found the followings: (1) Steady electrification in the building sector is expected driven by technological progresses and social change in the absence of climate change policy; (2) With strong greenhouse gas emission constraints, the combination of accelerated electrification across all sectors and
Calculation of SY tank annulus continuous air monitor readings after postulated leak scenarios
The objective of this work was to determine whether or not a continuous air monitor (CAM) monitoring the annulus of one of the SY Tanks would be expected to alarm after three postulated leak scenarios. Using data and references provided by Lockheed Martin`s Tank Farm personnel, estimated CAM readings were calculated at specific times after the postulated scenarios might have occurred. Potential CAM readings above background at different times were calculated for the following leak scenarios: Leak rate of 0.01 gal/min; Leak rate of 0.03 gal/min (best estimate of the maximum probable leak rate from a single-shell tank); and Leak of 73 gal (equivalent to a {1/4}-in. leak on the floor of the annulus). The equation used to make the calculations along with descriptions and/or explanations of the terms are included, as is a list of the assumptions and/or values used for the calculations.
Kenoyer, J.L.
Higgs Search Constraints on Fourth Generation Scenarios with General Lepton Sectors
I present a general exclusion bound for the Higgs in fourth generation scenarios with a general lepton sector. Recent Higgs searches in fourth generation scenarios rule out the entire Higgs mass region between 120 and 600 GeV. That such a large range of Higgs masses are excluded is due to the presence of extra heavy flavors of quarks, which substantially increase Higgs production from gluon fusion over the Standard Model rate. However, if heavy fourth generation neutrinos are less than half of the Higgs mass, they can dominate the Higgs decay branching fraction, overtaking the standard Higgs to WW* decay rate. The Higgs mass exclusion in a fourth generation scenario is shown most generally to be 155-600 GeV, and is highly dependent on the fourth generation neutrino mixing parameter.
Linda M. Carpenter
Development of Burning Plasma and Advanced Scenarios in the DIII-D Tokamak
Significant progress in the development of burning plasma scenarios, steady-state scenarios at high fusion performance, and basic tokamak physics has been made by the DIII-D Team. Discharges similar to the ITER baseline scenario have demonstrated normalized fusion performance nearly 50% higher than required for Q = 10 in ITER, under stationary conditions. Discharges that extrapolate to Q {approx} 10 for longer than one hour in ITER at reduced current have also been demonstrated in DIII-D under stationary conditions. Proof of high fusion performance with full noninductive operation has been obtained. Underlying this work are studies validating approaches to confinement extrapolation, disruption avoidance and mitigation, tritium retention, ELM avoidance, and operation above the no-wall pressure limit. In addition, the unique capabilities of the DIII-D facility have advanced studies of the sawtooth instability with unprecedented time and space resolution, threshold behavior in the electron heat transport, and rotation in plasmas in the absence of external torque.
Luce, T C
Natural gas network resiliency to a %22shakeout scenario%22 earthquake.
A natural gas network model was used to assess the likely impact of a scenario San Andreas Fault earthquake on the natural gas network. Two disruption scenarios were examined. The more extensive damage scenario assumes the disruption of all three major corridors bringing gas into southern California. If withdrawals from the Aliso Canyon storage facility are limited to keep the amount of stored gas within historical levels, the disruption reduces Los Angeles Basin gas supplies by 50%. If Aliso Canyon withdrawals are only constrained by the physical capacity of the storage system to withdraw gas, the shortfall is reduced to 25%. This result suggests that it is important for stakeholders to put agreements in place facilitating the withdrawal of Aliso Canyon gas in the event of an emergency.
Ellison, James F.; Corbet, Thomas Frank,; Brooks, Robert E. [RBAC, Inc., Sherman Oaks, CA
www.eia.gov Overview • Changes to the Reference Case • Sensitivity/Scenarios • Issues in Focus Articles
• Impact of extending and expanding certain energy policies • Impact of alternative world oil prices on supply and demand • Implications of alternative crude oil and natural gas resource estimates • Impact of changes in fuel prices and environmental regulations on electric power generation • Changes in the transportation sector fuel consumption landscape
John Conti; Assistant Administrator; Office Of Energy Analysis
A multi-criteria assessment of scenarios on thermal processing of infectious hospital wastes: A case study for Central Macedonia
In Greece more than 14,000 tonnes of infectious hospital waste are produced yearly; a significant part of it is still mismanaged. Only one off-site licensed incineration facility for hospital wastes is in operation, with the remaining of the market covered by various hydroclave and autoclave units, whereas numerous problems are still generally encountered regarding waste segregation, collection, transportation and management, as well as often excessive entailed costs. Everyday practices still include dumping the majority of solid hospital waste into household disposal sites and landfills after sterilization, still largely without any preceding recycling and separation steps. Discussed in the present paper are the implemented and future treatment practices of infectious hospital wastes in Central Macedonia; produced quantities are reviewed, actual treatment costs are addressed critically, whereas the overall situation in Greece is discussed. Moreover, thermal treatment processes that could be applied for the treatment of infectious hospital wastes in the region are assessed via the multi-criteria decision method Analytic Hierarchy Process. Furthermore, a sensitivity analysis was performed and the analysis demonstrated that a centralized autoclave or hydroclave plant near Thessaloniki is the best performing option, dependin