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Office of Scientific and Technical Information
Navy mobility fuels forecasting system report: World petroleum trade forecasts for the year 2000
Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)
The Middle East will continue to play the dominant role of a petroleum supplier in the world oil market in the year 2000, according to business-as-usual forecasts published by the US Department of Energy. However, interesting trade patterns will emerge as a result of the democratization in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe. US petroleum imports will increase from 46% in 1989 to 49% in 2000. A significantly higher level of US petroleum imports (principally products) will be coming from Japan, the Soviet Union, and Eastern Europe. Several regions, the Far East, Japan, Latin American, and Africa will import more petroleum. Much uncertainty remains about of the level future Soviet crude oil production. USSR net petroleum exports will decrease; however, the United States and Canada will receive some of their imports from the Soviet Union due to changes in the world trade patterns. The Soviet Union can avoid becoming a net petroleum importer as long as it (1) maintains enough crude oil production to meet its own consumption and (2) maintains its existing refining capacities. Eastern Europe will import approximately 50% of its crude oil from the Middle East.
Das, S.
World Trade Center Investigation Status
... Approximately half (51%) of WTC occupants had never used a stairwell at the World Trade Center prior to ... fine, the electricity was fine�� (70's) ...
... Air-conditioning Duct Electric Duct ... available. The sprinkler trade-off provides an economic incentive to encourage ... In the United States, state and ...
November 14, 2000 A Quarterly Forecast of U.S. Trade
E-Print Network (OSTI)
November 14, 2000 A Quarterly Forecast of U.S. Trade in Services and the Current Account, 2000 of Forecast*** We forecast that the services trade surplus, which declined from 1997 to 1998 and edged upward. That is, from a level of $80.6 billion in 1999, we forecast that the services trade surplus will be $80
Shyy, Wei
Material World: Forecasting Household Appliance Ownership in a Growing Global Economy
and V. Letschert (2005). Forecasting Electricity Demand in8364 Material World: Forecasting Household ApplianceMcNeil, 2008). Forecasting Diffusion Forecasting Variables
Letschert, Virginie
Short-Term World Oil Price Forecast
Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)
4 4 Notes: This graph shows monthly average spot West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices. Spot WTI crude oil prices peaked last fall as anticipated boosts to world supply from OPEC and other sources did not show up in actual stocks data. So where do we see crude oil prices going from here? Crude oil prices are expected to be about $28-$30 per barrel for the rest of this year, but note the uncertainty bands on this projection. They give an indication of how difficult it is to know what these prices are going to do. Also, EIA does not forecast volatility. This relatively flat forecast could be correct on average, with wide swings around the base line. Let's explore why we think prices will likely remain high, by looking at an important market barometer - inventories - which measures the
World Trade Organization | Open Energy Information
Open Energy Info (EERE)
Logo: World Trade Organization Name World Trade Organization Address Rue de Lausanne 154, CH-1211 Place Geneva, Switzerland Number of employees 501-1000 Phone number +41 (0)22 739 51 11 Website http://www.wto.org/index.htm Coordinates 46.2238973°, 6.1496442° Loading map... {"minzoom":false,"mappingservice":"googlemaps3","type":"ROADMAP","zoom":14,"types":["ROADMAP","SATELLITE","HYBRID","TERRAIN"],"geoservice":"google","maxzoom":false,"width":"600px","height":"350px","centre":false,"title":"","label":"","icon":"","visitedicon":"","lines":[],"polygons":[],"circles":[],"rectangles":[],"copycoords":false,"static":false,"wmsoverlay":"","layers":[],"controls":["pan","zoom","type","scale","streetview"],"zoomstyle":"DEFAULT","typestyle":"DEFAULT","autoinfowindows":false,"kml":[],"gkml":[],"fusiontables":[],"resizable":false,"tilt":0,"kmlrezoom":false,"poi":true,"imageoverlays":[],"markercluster":false,"searchmarkers":"","locations":[{"text":"","title":"","link":null,"lat":46.2238973,"lon":6.1496442,"alt":0,"address":"","icon":"","group":"","inlineLabel":"","visitedicon":""}]}
Africa gaining importance in world LPG trade
Major LPG projects planned or under way in Africa will increase the importance of that region`s presence in world LPG trade. Supplies will nearly double between 1995 and 2005, at which time they will remain steady for at least 10 years. At the same time that exports are leveling, however, increasing domestic demand for PG is likely to reduce export-market participation by Algeria, Nigeria, Egypt, and Libya. The growth of Africa`s participation in world LPG supply is reflected in comparisons for the next 15--20 years. Total world supply of LPG in 1995 was about 165 million metric tons (tonnes), of which Africans share was 7.8 million tonnes. By 2000, world supply will grow to slightly more than 200 million tonnes, with Africa`s share expected to increase to 13.2 million tonnes (6.6%). And by 2005, world LPG supply will reach nearly 230 million tonnes; Africa`s overall supply volumes by that year will be nearly 16.2 million tonnes (7%). World LPG supply for export in 1995 was on order of 44 million tonnes with Africa supply about 4 million tonnes (9%). By 2005, world export volumes of LPG will reach nearly 70 million tonnes; Africa`s share will have grown by nearly 10 million tonnes (14.3%).
Haun, R.R. [Purvin and Gertz Inc., Dallas, TX (United States); Otto, K.W.; Whitley, S.C. [Purvin and Gertz Inc., Houston, TX (United States)
World Production, Markets, and Trade Reports | Data.gov
NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)
World Production, Markets, and Trade Reports Agriculture Community Menu DATA APPS EVENTS DEVELOPER STATISTICS COLLABORATE ABOUT Agriculture You are here Data.gov Communities ...
Understanding the world wool market : trade, productivity and grower incomes.
??[Truncated abstract] The core objective of this thesis is summarised by its title: �Understanding the World Wool Market: Trade, Productivity and Grower Incomes�. Thus, we� (more)
Verikios, George
Final Reports from the NIST World Trade Center Disaster ...
... Final Reports released in November 2008: NIST NCSTAR 1A: Final Report on the Collapse of World Trade Center Building 7 *. ...
World lpg forecast and implications for the U. S. Merchant Marine, 1978-1990
SciTech Connect
This study summarizes historical and current LPG trade and vessels operating worldwide. It also forecasts LPG trade required for the U.S. and other major markets through 1990. Using an economic model to assess the market for LPG ships, the study forecasts vessel requirements for U.S. LPG trade and prospects for building required vessels in the U.S.
The World Trade Center disaster : Analysis and recommendations
The terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 brought about the destruction of two symbols of American economic strength, the twin towers of the World Trade Center in New York City. These towers remained standing for some ...
Kirk, Jeremy Abraham, 1977-
Day-Ahead/Hour-Ahead Forecasting for Demand Trading: A Guidebook
Demand trading can be an effective hedge against wholesale power price spikes during times of constraint. However, it also can be a high-risk venture. Profitability depends on reliable demand forecasting. Short-term load forecasting (STLF) can minimize the risks of day-ahead purchasing by providing better predictions at the system level. Additionally, STLF can reduce hour-ahead spot market risks and directly support demand trading by providing more accurate assessments of incremental load reductions from...
Download report 1006016 for FREE. Demand trading can be an effective hedge against wholesale power price spikes during times of constraint. However, it also can be a high-risk venture. Profitability depends on reliable demand forecasting. Short-term load forecasting (STLF) can minimize the risks of day-ahead purchasing by providing better predictions at the system level. Additionally, STLF can reduce hour-ahead spot market risks and directly support demand trading by providing more accurate assessments o...
Potential for world trade in LNG
Deliveries of LNG in 1978 in international trade amounted to about 24.77 billion cu m; of the actual deliveries, 9% were received by the U.S., 30% by West European countries, and 61% by Japan. For Spain, these deliveries represented 100% of its natural gas supply; for the U.S., they represented only 2% of natural gas demand. By the mid-1980's, the international LNG growth rate will slow to approx. 16%/yr, although projects totaling 130 million cu m/day may be completed. During the late 1980's, another 94.1 million cu m/day of LNG projects could be implemented. The over-all growth rate for the decade would then be approx. 11%/yr in LNG volumes. After 1990, several LNG export projects could be put into operation, possibly in the Middle East, West Africa, and the U.S.S.R. In 1980-2000, energy demand may increase by 2%/yr. Oil should retain its 65-70% of the primary energy supply; whether natural gas can increase its relative share depends on economic and political factors. Pipeline transport of gas costs twice as much as crude oil, and sea transport of LNG costs four to five times as much as crude oil. Wider use of the refrigeration available at LNG import terminals could affect project economics favorably. Tables.
Anderson, P.J.
The Complex Relationship between Forecast Skill and Forecast Value: A Real-World Analysis
For routine forecasts of temperature and precipitation, the relative skill advantage of human forecasters with respect to the numerical�statistical guidance is small (and diminishing). Since the relationship between forecast skill and the value ...
Paul J. Roebber; Lance F. Bosart
Analysing and modelling international trade patterns of the Australian wine industry in the world wine market.
??Since the mid-1980s, trade liberalisation has encouraged the growth of Australia�s international trade. The Australian wine industry has been successful in the world wine market,� (more)
Boriraj, Jumpoth
Forecasting and trading the EUR/USD exchange rate with stochastic Neural Network combination and time-varying leverage
The motivation of this paper is to investigate the use of a Neural Network (NN) architecture, the Psi Sigma Neural Network (PSN), when applied to the task of forecasting and trading the Euro/Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate using the European Central Bank ... Keywords: Forecast combinations, Kalman Filter, LASSO, Leverage, Psi Sigma network, Recurrent Network
Georgios Sermpinis; Christian Dunis; Jason Laws; Charalampos Stasinakis
Elevated tritium levels at the World Trade Center
Traces of tritiated water (HTO) were detected at [the]World Trade Center (WTC) ground zero after the 9/11/01 terrorist attack. A method of ultralow-background liquid scintillation counting was used after distilling HTO from the samples. A water sample from the WTC sewer, collected on 9/13/01, contained 0.174 plus or minus 0.074 (2s) nCi/L of HTO. A split water sample, collected on 9/21/01 from the basement of WTC Building 6, contained 3.53 plus or minus 0.17 and 2.83 plus or minus 0.15 nCi/L, respectively. Several water and vegetation samples were analyzed from areas outside the ground zero, located in Manhattan, Brooklyn, Queens, and Kensico Reservoir. No HTO above the background was found in those samples. All these results are well below the levels of concern to human exposure.
Semkow, Thomas M.; Hafner, Ronald S.; Parekh, Pravin P.; Wozniak, Gordon J.; Haines, Douglas K.; Husain, Liaquat; Rabun, Robert L.; Williams, Philip G.
Future world oil prices: modeling methodologies and summary of recent forecasts
This paper has three main objectives. First, the various methodologies that have been developed to explain historical oil price changes and forecast future price trends are reviewed and summarized. Second, the paper summarizes recent world oil price forecasts, and, then possible, discusses the methodologies used in formulating those forecasts. Third, utilizing conclusions from the reviews of the modeling methodologies and the recent price forecasts, in combination with an assessment of recent and projected oil market trends, oil price projections are given for the time period 1987 to 2022. The paper argues that modeling methodologies have undergone significant evolution during the past decade as modelers increasingly recognize the complex and constantly changing structure of the world oil market. Unfortunately, at this point in time a consensus about the appropriate methodology to use in formulating oil price forecasts is yet to be reached. There is, however, a general movement toward the opinion that both economic and political factors should be considered when making price projections. Likewise, there is no consensus about future oil price trends. Forecasts differ widely. However, in general, forecasts have been adjusted downwardly in recent years. Further, an overall assessment of the forecasts and recent oil market trends suggests that oil prices will remain constant in real terms for the remainder of the 1980s. Real oil prices are expected to increase by between 2 and 3% during the 1990s and beyond. Forecasters are quick to point out, however, that all forecasts are subject to significant uncertainty. 69 references, 3 figures, 10 tables.
Curlee, T.R.
Forecasting world oil prices: the evolution of modeling methodologies and summary of recent projections
This paper has three main objectives: (1) to review and summarize the varios methodologies that have been developed to explain historical oil price changes and forecast future price trends, (2) to summarize recent world oil price forecasts, and, when possible, discuss the methodologies used in formulating those forecasts, and (3) utilizing conclusions from the reviews of the modeling methodologies and the recent price forecasts, in combination with an assessment of recent and projected oil market trends, to give oil price projections for the time period 1987 to 2022. The paper argues that modeling methodologies have undergone significant evolution during the past decade as modelers increasingly recognize the complex and constantly changing structure of the world oil market. Unfortunately, a consensus about the appropriate methodology to use in formulating oil price forecasts is yet to be reached. There is, however, a general movement toward the opinion that both economic and political factors should be considered when making price projections. Likewise, there is no consensus about future oil price trends. Forecasts differ widely. However, in general, forecasts have been adjusted downwardly in recent years. Further, an overall assessment of the forecasts and recent oil market trends suggests that oil prices will remain constant in real terms for the remainder of the 1980s. Real oil prices are expected to increase by between 2 and 3% during the 1990s and beyond. Forecasters are quick to point out, however, that all forecasts are subject to significant uncertainty. 68 references, 1 figure, 6 tables.
The Sydney 2000 World Weather Research Programme Forecast Demonstration Project: Overview and Current Status
The first World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) Forecast Demonstration Project (FDP), with a focus on nowcasting, was conducted in Sydney, Australia, from 4 September to 21 November 2000 during a period associated with the Sydney 2000 Olympic ...
T. Keenan; P. Joe; J. Wilson; C. Collier; B. Golding; D. Burgess; P. May; C. Pierce; J. Bally; A. Crook; A. Seed; D. Sills; L. Berry; R. Potts; I. Bell; N. Fox; E. Ebert; M. Eilts; K. O'Loughlin; R. Webb; R. Carbone; K. Browning; R. Roberts; C. Mueller
Background: This Test and Clean Program plan is the result of ongoing efforts to monitor the current environmental conditions for residents and workers impacted by the collapse of the World Trade Center (WTC) towers. In March 2004, EPA convened an expert technical review panel to provide individual guidance and assistance to the Agency in its use of available exposure and health surveillance databases and registries to characterize any remaining exposures and risks, identify unmet public health needs, and to individually recommend steps to further minimize the risks associated with the aftermath of the WTC attack. The WTC Expert Technical Review Panel (WTC Panel) members met periodically in open meetings to interact with EPA and the public about plans to monitor for the presence of WTC dust in indoor environments and to individually suggest additional measures that could be undertaken by EPA and others to evaluate the dispersion of the plume and the geographic extent of environmental impact from the collapse of the WTC towers. The WTC Panel members were charged, in part, with reviewing data from post-cleaning verification sampling to be done by EPA in the residential areas included in EPA Region 2's 2002-3 Indoor Air Residential Assistance Program to verify that recontamination has not
unknown authors
Energy Prices and the Expansion of World Trade
The oil shocks of the 1970s coincided with a number of economic disturbances. However, it has been difficult to develop models where oil shocks have a quantitatively important impact on the economy. In this paper, I show that the disturbances in transportation caused by the oil shocks can significantly affect the economy. I argue that changes in energy prices were responsible for a worldwide slowdown in the growth of trade and may help explain the apparent change in the price-trade elasticity. While tariffs have fallen steadily since 1970, trade growth slowed in the mid-1970s and has grown rapidly since the mid-1980s. In a standard trade model, this pattern implies that the price-import elasticity increased sharply in the mid-1980s. In this paper, I argue that the oil crises of the 1970s led to higher transportation costs. In 1986 energy prices fell to their pre-crisis level, reducing transportation costs and by extension trade barriers. I present a trade model with an energy using transportation sector. In model simulations, I show that total trade costs (transportation cost plus tariffs) are constant from 1974 to 1982. Once transportation costs are accounted for, the price-import elasticity no longer needs to radically change. I also show that trade expansion since 1960 is 50 percent higher in a standard trade model that includes a transportation sector compared to one that does not.
Benjamin Bridgman
Building and Fire Safety: Responding to the World Trade ...
Waves Forecasters in World War II (with a Brief Survey of Other Women Meteorologists in World War II)
Out of the nearly 6000 U.S. military officers who were trained to be weather forecasters during World War II, there wore approximately 100 women. They were recruited into the Women Accepted for Volunteer Emergency Service (WAVES) by the U.S. Navy ...
J. M. Lewis
International dispute settlement system design : analysis of the World Trade Organization
The dispute settlement process established by the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 1994, (the "DSU"), has drawn widespread attention. While the DSU is the most used international dispute settlement process, it is geared ...
Martinez, Janet Kathryn Griffin, 1951-
EIA - Future role of the United States in world coal trade
Future role of the United States in world coal trade Future role of the United States in world coal trade International Energy Outlook 2010 Future role of the United States in world coal trade U.S. coal exports increased each year from 2002 to 2008 at an average annual rate of 12.8 percent, to 82 million tons in 2008. Some analysts have viewed the sharp increase in U.S. exports as an indication of the growing importance of the United States as a world coal supplier. There has also been speculation that China's growing demand for coal will support this trend in the future. However, U.S. coal is a relatively high-cost supply source when shipped to Asian markets, and in the long term U.S. coal will be competing in the Chinese market with lower cost suppliers, notably Australia and Indonesia among others. U.S. exports compete most strongly in European markets and then only when less expensive options are unavailable. In IEO2010, the United States remains a marginal coal supplier over the long term, responding to short-term disruptions or spikes in demand rather than significantly expanding its market share of world coal trade.
The Societal, Social, and Economic Impacts of the World Weather Research Programme Sydney 2000 Forecast Demonstration Project (WWRP S2000 FDP)
The Sydney 2000 (S2000) Forecast Demonstration Project (FDP) was initiated by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) to enable the world meteorological community to cooperatively demonstrate advanced ...
Linda Anderson-Berry; Tom Keenan; John Bally; Roger Pielke Jr.; Roy Leigh; David King
� More than 7 years after the WTC attacks on 9/11, some children and adolescents may still be experiencing physical or mental health effects associated with the disaster. � Due to their development, behavior, and physiology, children and adolescents are more susceptible than adults to certain adverse health effects resulting from disasters. � Pediatricians and other child health clinicians should know how to identify, evaluate, treat and, if necessary, refer pediatric patients with potential WTC-related physical or mental health conditions. � Physicians should also consider WTC-related health effects among young adults who were exposed as adolescents. More than 7 years after the World Trade Center (WTC) attacks on 9/11, adverse health effects have been documented in adults and children who lived or worked in the vicinity of the World Trade Center. In 2006 and again in 2008, the New York City Department of Health and
The Application of Synoptic Stratification to Precipitation Forecasting in the Trade Wind Regime
A 1129-day high quality rainfall dataset was collated, from the months of March to November 1993�97, where trade wind flow predominates across the northeast Queensland tropical coast. This dataset was matched with numerical model fields from the ...
Gregory J. Connor; Frank Woodcock
International LNG report/Steady growth seen in next decade for world trade in LNG
Between now and the mid-1980's, the world trade in LNG is expected to double, which would represent an annual growth rate of 16%, down from the 23.5% growth rate experienced in the last 20 yr. By 1979, international trade grew to 4482 billion cu ft/day, which represents a 30-fold increase in the last 15 yr, during which the number of LNG-exporting countries increased from one to six. Projects in the planning stage and expected developments in the financing and technology of such projects are discussed; LNG deliveries and baseload LNG projects currently operational, firm, or under construction, in planning stages, under consideration, and canceled or held in abeyance are tabulated.
World Petroleum Supply/Demand Forecast - U.S. Energy Information ...
U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
... surplus supply over demand for spring and summer quarters compared with some other forecasters such as Oil Market Intelligence, ...
The Use of DOE Technologies at The World Trade Center Incident: Lessons Learned
In response to the attack of the World Trade Center (WTC) on September 11, 2001, the International Union of Operating Engineers (IUOE) National Hazmat Program (OENHP) assembled and deployed a HAZMAT Emergency Management Team (Team) to the disaster site (Site). The response team consisted of a Certified Industrial Hygienist and a rotating team of industrial hygienists, safety professionals, and certified HAZMAT instructors. Through research funded by the Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Environmental Management (EM) and managed by the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), the IUOE conducted human factors assessments on baseline and innovative technologies during real-world conditions and served as an advocate at the WTC disaster site to identify opportunities for the use and evaluation of DOE technologies. From this work, it is clear that opportunities exist for more DOE technologies to be made readily available for use in future emergencies.
McCabe, B.; Kovach, J.; Carpenter, C.; Blair, D.
Over the past years the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) has developed an econometric model that predicts appliance ownership at the household level based on macroeconomic variables such as household income (corrected for purchase power parity), electrification, urbanization and climate variables. Hundreds of data points from around the world were collected in order to understand trends in acquisition of new appliances by households, especially in developing countries. The appliances covered by this model are refrigerators, lighting fixtures, air conditioners, washing machines and televisions. The approach followed allows the modeler to construct a bottom-up analysis based at the end use and the household level. It captures the appliance uptake and the saturation effect which will affect the energy demand growth in the residential sector. With this approach, the modeler can also account for stock changes in technology and efficiency as a function of time. This serves two important functions with regard to evaluation of the impact of energy efficiency policies. First, it provides insight into which end uses will be responsible for the largest share of demand growth, and therefore should be policy priorities. Second, it provides a characterization of the rate at which policies affecting new equipment penetrate the appliance stock. Over the past 3 years, this method has been used to support the development of energy demand forecasts at the country, region or global level.
Letschert, Virginie; McNeil, Michael A.
of Household Income and Appliance Ownership. ECEEE Summerof decreasing prices of appliances, if price data becomesForecasting Household Appliance Ownership in a Growing
Free World energy survey: historical overview and long-term forecast
This report gives a historical overview of international energy markets from the 1950s to date, and an analysis of future energy prices, economic growth, and potential supply instabilities. Forecasts of energy demand by region and fuel type are provided.
Very Fine Aerosols from the World Trade Center Collapse Piles: Anaerobic Incineration
By September 14, three days after the initial World Trade Center collapse, efforts at fire suppression and heavy rainfall had extinguished the immediate surface fires. From then until roughly mid-December, the collapse piles continuously emitted an acrid smoke and fume in the smoldering phase of the event. Knowledge of the sources, nature, and concentration of these aerosols is important for evaluation and alleviation of the health effects on workers and nearby residents. In this paper, we build on our earlier work to ascribe these aerosols to similar processes that occur in urban incinerators. The simultaneous presence of finely powdered (circa 5 {micro}m) and highly basic (pH 11 to 12) cement dust and high levels of very fine (< 0.25 {micro}m) sulfuric acid fumes helps explain observed health impacts. The unprecedented levels of several metals in the very fine mode can be tied to liberation of those metals that are both present in elevated concentrations in the debris and have depressed volatility temperatures caused by the presence of organic materials and chlorine.
Cahill, T A; Cliff, S S; Shackelford, J; Meier, M; Dunlap, M; Perry, K D; Bench, G; Leifer, R
The South China Sea is an important world energy trade route ...
Intraregional trade is distributed evenly among Singapore, South Korea, Japan, and China, with smaller amounts going to other Southeast Asia countries.
Short and Long-Term Perspectives: The Impact on Low-Income Consumers of Forecasted Energy Price Increases in 2008 and A Cap & Trade Carbon Policy in 2030
The Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently released its short-term forecast for residential energy prices for the winter of 2007-2008. The forecast indicates increases in costs for low-income consumers in the year ahead, particularly for those using fuel oil to heat their homes. In the following analysis, the Oak Ridge National Laboratory has integrated the EIA price projections with the Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS) for 2001 in order to project the impact of these price increases on the nation's low-income households by primary heating fuel type, nationally and by Census Region. The report provides an update of bill estimates provided in a previous study, "The Impact Of Forecasted Energy Price Increases On Low-Income Consumers" (Eisenberg, 2005). The statistics are intended for use by policymakers in the Department of Energy's Weatherization Assistance Program and elsewhere who are trying to gauge the nature and severity of the problems that will be faced by eligible low-income households during the 2008 fiscal year. In addition to providing expenditure forecasts for the year immediately ahead, this analysis uses a similar methodology to give policy makers some insight into one of the major policy debates that will impact low-income energy expenditures well into the middle decades of this century and beyond. There is now considerable discussion of employing a cap-and-trade mechanism to first limit and then reduce U.S. emissions of carbon into the atmosphere in order to combat the long-range threat of human-induced climate change. The Energy Information Administration has provided an analysis of projected energy prices in the years 2020 and 2030 for one such cap-and-trade carbon reduction proposal that, when integrated with the RECS 2001 database, provides estimates of how low-income households will be impacted over the long term by such a carbon reduction policy.
Eisenberg, Joel Fred [ORNL
The World Trade Organization and financial stability: the balance between liberalisation and regulation in the GATs
and the Annex on Financial Services to determine its impact on domestic financial regulation and whether the GATS framework can achieve its objectives of liberalising international trade in financial services while allowing states to maintain adequate domestic...
Alexander, Kern
Commercial nuclear and uranium market forecasts for the United States and the world outside communist areas. Analysis report AR/ES/80-02
Nuclear power forecasts prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the United States Department of Energy are presented. The domestic forecasts from the EIA Annual Report to Congress for 1978 (published in July 1979) are detailed for the two time frames considered in the EIA analytical hierarchy: the midterm, encompassing the 1985, 1990, and 1995 milestones and the long term, beyond 1995 to the year 2020. EIA nuclear forecasts for the balance of nations in the World Outside Communist Areas (WOCA) are also presented through the year 2000. In turn, an assessment is made of the uranium consumption requirements implied by both the domestic and WOCA nuclear power forecasts. A discussion is included of appropriate fuel cycle assumptions, sensitivities, and price projections.
Clark, R.G.; Reynolds, A.W.
Wind and Wave Extremes over the World Oceans From Very Large Forecast Ensembles
Global return value estimates of significant wave height and 10-m neutral wind speed are estimated from very large aggregations of archived ECMWF ensemble forecasts at +240-h lead time from the period 2003-2012. The upper percentiles are found to match ENVISAT wind speed better than ERA-Interim (ERA-I), which tends to be biased low. The return estimates are significantly higher for both wind speed and wave height in the extratropics and the subtropics than what is found from ERA-I, but lower than what is reported by Caires and Sterl (2005) and Vinoth and Young (2011). The highest discrepancies between ERA-I and ENS240 are found in the hurricane-prone areas, suggesting that the ensemble comes closer than ERA-I in capturing the intensity of tropical cyclones. The width of the confidence intervals are typically reduced by 70% due to the size of the data sets. Finally, non-parametric estimates of return values were computed from the tail of the distribution. These direct return estimates compare very well with Ge...
Breivik, �yvind; Abdalla, Saleh; Bidlot, Jean-Raymond
International Trade with Waste.
?? In this thesis, trade with waste between developed countries and the third world will be presented to analyze whether waste?trading can create a possible� (more)
Will�n, Jenny
Impact of the 2001 World Trade Center Attack on Critical Interdependent Infrastructures*
; transportation; information and communications; electric power; banking and finance; gas and oil production, water and sewer systems date back nearly 6,000 years in world history [3] and have been essential in nature. By enriching the history of infrastructure interdependence, researchers can better assess both
Mendonça, David
Analysis of the European Union�s grain sorghum import demand and its impact on the world�s grain sorghum trade.
??The European Union sporadically imports large quantities of grain sorghum from the United States, causing trade distortion among the U.S., Mexico, and Japan, currently the� (more)
Kustudija, Milos
Analysis of the European Union�s Grain Sorghum Import Demand and its Impact on the World�s Grain Sorghum Trade.
World coal outlook to the year 2000
The 1983 edition of the World Coal Outlook to the Year 2000 examines the worldwide impact of lower oil prices and lower economic activity on the demand, production, and international trade in coal. The report includes detailed regional forecasts of coal demand by end-use application. Regions include the US, Canada, Western Europe, Japan, Other Asia, Latin America, Africa, Australia/New Zealand, Communist Europe, and Communist Asia. In addition, regional coal production forecasts are provided with a detailed analysis of regional coal trade patterns. In all instances, the changes relative to Chase's previous forecasts are shown. Because of the current situation in the oil market, the report includes an analysis of the competitive position of coal relative to oil in the generation of electricity, and in industrial steam applications. The report concludes with an examination of the impact of an oil price collapse on the international markets for coal.
The Worker Component At The World Trade Center Cleanup: Addressing Cultural And Language Differences In Emergency Operations
On September 11, 2001, the terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center (WTC) caused astronomical loss of life and property. Systems in place to manage disaster response were strained to the limit because key first responders were among the casualties when the twin towers collapsed. In addition, the evolution of events required immediate response in a rapidly changing and extremely hazardous situation. Rescue, recovery, and clean up became an overpowering and sustained effort that would utilize the resources of federal, state and local governments and agencies. One issue during the response to the WTC disaster site that did not receive much attention was that of the limited and non-English speaking worker. The Operating Engineers National HAZMAT Program (OENHP), with its history of a Hispanic Outreach Program, was acutely aware of this issue with the Hispanic worker. The Hispanic population comprises approximately 27% of the population of New York City (1). The extremely unfortunate and tragic events of that day provided an opportunity to not only provide assistance for the Hispanic workers, but also to apply lessons learned and conduct studies on worker training with language barriers in a real life environment. However, due to the circumstances surrounding this tragedy, the study of these issues was conducted primarily by observation. Through partnerships with other organizations such as the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA), the New York Health Department, the New York Department of Design and Construction (DDC), the New York Committee for Occupational Safety and Health (NYCOSH), and private companies such as 3M and MSA, OENHP was able to provide translated information on hazards, protective measures, fit testing of respirators, and site specific safety and health training. The OENHP translated materials on hazards and how to protect workers into Spanish to assist in getting the information to the limited and non- English speaking workers.
McCabe, B.; Carpenter, C.; Blair. D.
Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Tables
Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Table 2. Total Energy Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 3. Total Petroleum Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 4. Total Natural Gas Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 5. Total Coal Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 6. Total Electricity Sales, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 7. Crude Oil Production, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 8. Natural Gas Production, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 9. Coal Production, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 10. Net Petroleum Imports, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 11. Net Natural Gas Imports, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 12. Net Coal Exports, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 13. World Oil Prices, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 14. Natural Gas Wellhead Prices, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 15. Coal Prices to Electric Utilities, Actual vs. Forecasts
Forecast Correlation Coefficient Matrix of Stock Returns in Portfolio Analysis
Unadjusted Forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Unadjusted Forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Zhao, Feng
Forecast Technical Document Forecast Types
Forecast Technical Document Forecast Types A document describing how different forecast types are implemented in the 2011 Production Forecast system. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley Halsall #12;PF2011 Forecast Types Background Different `types' of forecast are possible for a specified area
Tritium in the World Trade Center September 11, 2001 Terrorist Attack: It's Possible Sources and Fate
Traces of tritiated water (HTO) were determined at World Trade Center (WTC) ground zero after the 9/11/01 terrorist attack. A method of ultralow-background liquid scintillation counting was used after distilling HTO from the samples. A water sample from the WTC sewer, collected on 9/13/01, contained 0.174{plus_minus}0.074 (2{sigma}) nCi/L of HTO. A split water sample, collected on 9/21/01 from the basement of WTC Building 6, contained 3.53{plus_minus}0.17 and 2.83{plus_minus}0.15 nCi/L, respectively. Several water and vegetation samples were analyzed from areas outside the ground zero, located in Manhattan, Brooklyn, Queens, and Kensico Reservoir. No HTO above the background was found in those samples. All these results are well below the levels of concern to human exposure. Several tritium radioluminescent (RL) devices were investigated as possible sources of the traces of tritium at ground zero. Tritium is used in self-luminescent emergency EXIT signs. No such signs were present inside the WTC buildings. However, it was determined that Boeing 767-222 aircraft operated by the United Airlines that hit WTC Tower 2 as well as Boeing 767-223ER operated by the American Airlines, that hit WTC Tower 1, had a combined 34.3 Ci of tritium at the time of impact. Other possible sources of tritium include dials and lights of fire and emergency equipment, sights and scopes in weaponry, as well as time devices equipped with tritium dials. It was determined that emergency equipment was not a likely source. However, WTC hosted several law-enforcement agencies such as ATF, CIA, US Secret Service and US Customs. The ATF office had two weapon vaults in WTC Building 6. Also 63 Police Officers, possibly carrying handguns with tritium sights, died in the attack. The weaponry containing tritium was therefore a likely and significant source of tritium. It is possible that some of the 2830 victims carried tritium watches, however this source appears to be less significant that the other two. The fate of tritium in the attack depended on its chemistry. Any tritium present in the vicinity of jet-fuel explosion or fire would convert to HTO. The molecular tritium is also known to quickly exchange with water adsorbed on surfaces at ambient temperatures. Therefore, the end product of reacted tritium was HTO. A part of it would disperse into the atmosphere and a part would remain on site. The dynamic aspect of HTO removal was investigated taking into a consideration water flow at ground zero. Most of ground zero is encircled by the Slurry Wall, 70 ft deep underground, called a Bathtub. Approximately three million gallons of water were hosed on site in the fire-fighting efforts, and 1 million gallons fell as rainwater, between 9/11 and 9/21 (the day of the reported measurement). The combined water percolated through the debris down to the bottom of the Bathtub dissolving and removing HTO with it. That water would meet and combine with the estimated 26 million gallons of water that leaked from the Hudson River as well as broken mains, during the same period of 10 days after the attack. The combined water was collecting in the PATH train tunnel and continuously being pumped out to prevent flooding. A %Box model of water flow was developed to describe the above scenario. Considering the uncertainty in the amount of tritium present from sources other than the aircraft, as well as the dynamic character of tritium removal from the site, it is feasible to provide only a qualitative picture of the fate and behavior of tritium at WTC with the limited experimental data available. If the time history of tritium concentration at WTC had been measured, this study could have been a tracer study of water flow at WTC possibly useful to civil engineering.
Parekh, P; Semkow, T; Husain, L; Haines, D; Woznial, G; Williams, P; Hafner, R; Rabun, R
Characteristics of Climate Forecast Quality: implications for Economic Value to Midwestern Corn Producers
Using a conceptual forecasting format that is similar to some in current operational use, trade-offs between climate forecast quality and economic value are examined from the perspective of the forecast user. Various scenarios for climate ...
James W. Mjelde; Derrell S. Peel; Steven T. Sonka; Peter J. Lamb
R/ECON April 1999 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE
R/ECON April 1999 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE FORECAST OF APRIL 1999 NEW JERSEY forecast for New Jersey is for a continuation of the current expansion but at a somewhat slower pace in employment through the forecast period will be in services and trade. We also expect considerable growth
R/ECON April 2000 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE
R/ECON April 2000 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE FORECAST OF APRIL 2000 NEW JERSEY to more inflation and higher interest rates. The R/ECON TM forecast for New Jersey looks for employment.6% a year over the forecast period. The services and trade sectors will provide 90% of the net increase
RACORO Forecasting
Weather Briefings Observed Weather Cloud forecasting models BUFKIT forecast soundings + guidance from Norman NWS enhanced pages and discussions NAM-WRF updated...
Forecasting Forecast Skill
We have shown that it is possible to predict the skill of numerical weather forecasts�a quantity which is variable from day to day and region to region. This has been accomplished using as predictor the dispersion (measured by the average ...
Eugenia Kalnay; Amnon Dalcher
Forecast Combinations
Forecast combinations have frequently been found in empirical studies to produce better forecasts on average than methods based on the ex-ante best individual forecasting model. Moreover, simple combinations that ignore correlations between forecast errors often dominate more refined combination schemes aimed at estimating the theoretically optimal combination weights. In this chapter we analyze theoretically the factors that determine the advantages from combining forecasts (for example, the degree of correlation between forecast errors and the relative size of the individual models� forecast error variances). Although the reasons for the success of simple combination schemes are poorly understood, we discuss several possibilities related to model misspecification, instability (non-stationarities) and estimation error in situations where thenumbersofmodelsislargerelativetothe available sample size. We discuss the role of combinations under asymmetric loss and consider combinations of point, interval and probability forecasts. Key words: Forecast combinations; pooling and trimming; shrinkage methods; model misspecification, diversification gains
Allan Timmermann; Jel Codes C
Forecasting overview
Forecasting is required in many situations: deciding whether to build another power generation plant in the next five years requires forecasts of future demand; scheduling staff in a call centre next week requires forecasts of call volume; stocking an inventory requires forecasts of stock requirements. Forecasts can be required several years in advance (for the case of capital investments), or only a few minutes beforehand (for telecommunication routing). Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. Some things are easier to forecast than others. The time of the sunrise tomorrow morning can be forecast very precisely. On the other hand, currency exchange rates are very difficult to forecast with any accuracy. The predictability of an event or a quantity depends on how well we understand the factors that contribute to it, and how much unexplained variability is involved. Forecasting situations vary widely in their time horizons, factors determining actual outcomes, types of data patterns, and many other aspects. Forecasting methods can be very simple such as using the most recent observation as a forecast (which is called the �na�ve method�), or highly complex such as neural nets and econometric systems of simultaneous equations. The
Rob J Hyndman
RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE FORECAST OF OCTOBER 1998 NEW JERSEY: EXPANSION CONTINUES/ECONTM forecast for New Jersey is for a continuation of the current expansion but at a much reduced rate. In 1998 and throughout the forecast period will be in various service sectors and in retail trade. Health services
NIST's World Trade Center Investigation
... The agency received $16 million for the investigation in September 2002 from the fiscal year 2002 supplemental appropriation. ...
... Use must be posted in solicitation � DOC procurements rarely use outside evaluators (eg, use for large ... 2 MW burner off Maximum HRR for hood ...
World Trade Center Investigation Plan
... Skylobby Underground Car Park ... (sprinkler system, fire water supply, power ... Dynamics of building fires and collapse vulnerability of buildings to fires ...
Forecasting Market Prices in a Supply Chain Game Christopher Kiekintveld, Jason Miller, Patrick R. Jordan, and Michael P. Wellman
Forecasting Market Prices in a Supply Chain Game Christopher Kiekintveld, Jason Miller, Patrick R, to forecast market prices in the Trading Agent Com- petition Supply Chain Management Game. As a guiding, Experimentation, Measurement Keywords Forecasting, Markets, Price prediction, Trading agent competition, Supply
Wellman, Michael P.
Solar forecasting review
of Solar Forecasting . . . . . . . . . 2.4.1 Solarbudget at the foundation of satellite based forecastingWeather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model 7.1 Global
Inman, Richard Headen
NFI Forecasts Methodology NFI Forecasts Methodology
NFI Forecasts Methodology NFI Forecasts Methodology Overview Issued by: National Forest firstname.lastname@example.com Website: www.forestry.gov.uk/inventory 1 NFI Softwood Forecasts Methodology Overview #12;NFI Forecasts ........................................................................................................4 Rationale behind the new approach to the GB Private sector production forecast ........4 Volume
Forecast Technical Document Restocking in the Forecast
Forecast Technical Document Restocking in the Forecast A document describing how restocking of felled areas is handled in the 2011 Production Forecast. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley in the forecast Background During the period of a production forecast it is assumed that, as forest sub
> BUREAU HOME > AUSTRALIA > QUEENSLAND > FORECASTS BRISBANE FORECAST IMPROVEMENTS The Bureau of Meteorology is progressively upgrading its forecast system to provide more detailed forecasts across Australia. From October 2013 new and improved 7 day forecasts will be introduced for Brisbane, Gold Coast
Greenslade, Diana
Another Approach to Forecasting Forecast Skill
The skill of a medium-range numerical forecast can fluctuate widely from day to day. Providing an a priori estimate of the skill of the forecast is therefore important. Existing approaches include Monte Carlo Forecasting and Lagged Average ...
W. Y. Chen
EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data
H Tables H Tables Appendix H Comparisons With Other Forecasts, and Performance of Past IEO Forecasts for 1990, 1995, and 2000 Forecast Comparisons Three organizations provide forecasts comparable with those in the International Energy Outlook 2005 (IEO2005). The International Energy Agency (IEA) provides business as usual projections to the year 2030 in its World Energy Outlook 2004; Petroleum Economics, Ltd. (PEL) publishes world energy forecasts to 2025; and Petroleum Industry Research Associates (PIRA) provides projections to 2015. For this comparison, 2002 is used as the base year for all the forecasts, and the comparisons extend to 2025. Although IEAs forecast extends to 2030, it does not publish a projection for 2025. In addition to forecasts from other organizations, the IEO2005 projections are also compared with those in last years report (IEO2004). Because 2002 data were not available when IEO2004 forecasts were prepared, the growth rates from IEO2004 are computed from 2001.
Forecast Prices
Notes: Notes: Prices have already recovered from the spike, but are expected to remain elevated over year-ago levels because of the higher crude oil prices. There is a lot of uncertainty in the market as to where crude oil prices will be next winter, but our current forecast has them declining about $2.50 per barrel (6 cents per gallon) from today's levels by next October. U.S. average residential heating oil prices peaked at almost $1.50 as a result of the problems in the Northeast this past winter. The current forecast has them peaking at $1.08 next winter, but we will be revisiting the outlook in more detail next fall and presenting our findings at the annual Winter Fuels Conference. Similarly, diesel prices are also expected to fall. The current outlook projects retail diesel prices dropping about 14 cents per gallon
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ELECTRICITY DEMAND FORECAST COMPARISON REPORT STAFFREPORT June 2005 ..............................................................................3 Residential Forecast Comparison ..............................................................................................5 Nonresidential Forecast Comparisons
The Forecast Gap: Linking Forwards and Forecasts
This report addresses a common problem in price forecasting: What to do when confronted with a persistent gap between results obtained from a structural forecast model and actual forward or spot prices? The report examines examples taken from natural gas and electric power forecasts and presents a novel approach to closing this �forecast gap.� Inspection reveals that the ratio of actual prices to forecast prices often exhibits stochastic movements that resemble those of commodity price movements. By usin...
The Rationality of EIA Forecasts under Symmetric and Asymmetric Loss
case and a high and low oil price case. These forecasts areNatural Gas Imports World Oil Prices Natural Gas Wellheadgas imports, world oil price, coal prices to electric
Auffhammer, Maximilian
EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY increased our forecast slightly from early April, due to large amounts of uncertainty in both the phase and William M. Gray2 This forecast as well as past forecasts and verifications are available via the World
EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY activity is predicted. (as of 10 April 2013) By Philip J. Klotzbach1 and William M. Gray2 This forecast as well as past forecasts and verifications are available via the World Wide Web at http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts
EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY activity is predicted. (as of 4 April 2012) By Philip J. Klotzbach1 and William M. Gray2 This forecast as well as past forecasts and verifications are available via the World Wide Web at http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts
Forecasting in Meteorology
Public weather forecasting heralded the beginning of modern meteorology less than 150 years ago. Since then, meteorology has been largely a forecasting discipline. Thus, forecasting could have easily been used to test and develop hypotheses, ...
C. S. Ramage
The Sydney 2000 Olympic Games Forecast Demonstration Project: Forecasting, Observing Network Infrastructure, and Data Processing Issues
The Sydney 2000 Olympic Games World Weather Research Programme Forecast Demonstration Project (WWRP FDP) aimed to demonstrate the utility and impact of modern nowcast systems. The project focused on the use of radar processing systems and ...
Peter T. May; Thomas D. Keenan; Rod Potts; James W. Wilson; Rob Webb; Andrew Treloar; Elly Spark; Sue Lawrence; Elizabeth Ebert; John Bally; Paul Joe
Forecasting future volatility from option prices, Working
Weisbach are gratefully acknowledged. I bear full responsibility for all remaining errors. Forecasting Future Volatility from Option Prices Evidence exists that option prices produce biased forecasts of future volatility across a wide variety of options markets. This paper presents two main results. First, approximately half of the forecasting bias in the S&P 500 index (SPX) options market is eliminated by constructing measures of realized volatility from five minute observations on SPX futures rather than from daily closing SPX levels. Second, much of the remaining forecasting bias is eliminated by employing an option pricing model that permits a non-zero market price of volatility risk. It is widely believed that option prices provide the best forecasts of the future volatility of the assets which underlie them. One reason for this belief is that option prices have the ability to impound all publicly available information � including all information contained in the history of past prices � about the future volatility of the underlying assets. A second related reason is that option pricing theory maintains that if an option prices fails to embody optimal forecasts of the future volatility of the underlying asset, a profitable trading strategy should be available whose implementation would push the option price to the level that reflects the best possible forecast of future volatility.
Allen M. Poteshman
Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast Introduction..................................................................................................................................... 1
Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast Introduction................................................................................................................................. 3 Price Forecasts............................................................................................................................... 12 Oil Price Forecast Range
Statistical Forecasts Based on the National Meteorological Center's Numerical Weather Prediction System
The production of interpretive weather element forecasts from dynamical model output variables is now an integral part of the centralized guidance systems of weather services throughout the world. The statistical forecasting system in the United ...
Gary M. Carter; J. Paul Dallavalle; Harry R. Glahn
Forecasts, Meteorology Services, Environmental Sciences Department
Forecasts Short Term Forecast Suffolk County Northern Nassau Southern Nassau Area Forecast Discussion - OKX Area Forecast Discussion - NYS Area Forecast Discussion Mount Holly Area...
Forecasting Economic and Financial Variables with Global VARs
Suppose one were interested in forecasting output growth and inflation across a number of different countries; how would one go about it? What additional variables might help in such forecasting (the oil price comes to mind), and should one also consider... .2. Ideally evaluation is done with a separate sample, though that can often be prohibitively costly, one reason why techniques like cross-validation have considerable appeal. Essentially these first two stages can be considered as trading off bias (build...
Pesaran, M Hashem; Schuermann, Til; Smith, L Vanessa
Verifying Forecasts Spatially
Numerous new methods have been proposed for using spatial information to better quantify and diagnose forecast performance when forecasts and observations are both available on the same grid. The majority of the new spatial verification methods can be ...
Eric Gilleland; David A. Ahijevych; Barbara G. Brown; Elizabeth E. Ebert
Forecasting of Supercooled Clouds
Using parameterizations of cloud microphysics, a technique to forecast supercooled cloud events is suggested. This technique can be coupled on the mesoscale with a prognostic equation for cloud water to improve aircraft icing forecasts. The ...
Andr� Tremblay; Anna Glazer; Wanda Szyrmer; George Isaac; Isztar Zawadzki
The world price of coal
A significant increase in the seaborne trade for coal over the past twenty years has unified formerly separate coal markets into a world market in which prices move in tandem. Due to its large domestic market, the United ...
Ellerman, A. Denny
Time Series and Forecasting
Time Series and Forecasting. Leigh, Stefan and Perlman, S. (1991). "An Index for Comovement of Time Sequences With ...
Restaurant Industry Stock Price Forecasting Model Utilizing Artificial Neural Networks to Combine Fundamental and Technical Analysis.
??Stock price forecasting is a classic problem facing analysts. Forcasting models have been developed for predicting individual stocks and stock indices around the world and� (more)
Dravenstott, Ronald W.
Analysis Papers > Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation>Tables Analysis Papers > Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation>Tables Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Download Adobe Acrobat Reader Printer friendly version on our site are provided in Adobe Acrobat Spreadsheets are provided in Excel Actual vs. Forecasts Formats Table 2. Total Energy Consumption Excel, PDF Table 3. Total Petroleum Consumption Excel, PDF Table 4. Total Natural Gas Consumption Excel, PDF Table 5. Total Coal Consumption Excel, PDF Table 6. Total Electricity Sales Excel, PDF Table 7. Crude Oil Production Excel, PDF Table 8. Natural Gas Production Excel, PDF Table 9. Coal Production Excel, PDF Table 10. Net Petroleum Imports Excel, PDF Table 11. Net Natural Gas Imports Excel, PDF Table 12. World Oil Prices Excel, PDF Table 13. Natural Gas Wellhead Prices
Annual Energy Outlook 2001 - Forecast Comparisons
Forecast Comparisons Forecast Comparisons Economic Growth World Oil Prices Total Energy Consumption Residential and Commercial Sectors Industrial Sector Transportation Sector Electricity Natural Gas Petroleum Coal Three other organizationsStandard & Poors DRI (DRI), the WEFA Group (WEFA), and the Gas Research Institute (GRI) [95]also produce comprehensive energy projections with a time horizon similar to that of AEO2001. The most recent projections from those organizations (DRI, Spring/Summer 2000; WEFA, 1st Quarter 2000; GRI, January 2000), as well as other forecasts that concentrate on petroleum, natural gas, and international oil markets, are compared here with the AEO2001 projections. Economic Growth Differences in long-run economic forecasts can be traced primarily to
Forecast Technical Document Volume Increment
Forecast Technical Document Volume Increment Forecasts A document describing how volume increment is handled in the 2011 Production Forecast. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley Halsall #12;PF2011 Volume increment forecasts Background A volume increment forecast is a fundamental output of the forecast
EIA forecasts increased oil demand, need for additional supply ...
World oil demand is forecast to increase by 1.7 million barrels per day (bbl/d) ... Cooling demand in the Middle East is expected to rise to record levels this summer.
Probabilistic Seasonal Forecasting of African Drought by Dynamical Models
As a natural phenomenon, drought can have devastating impacts on local populations through food insecurity and famine in the developing world such as Africa. In this study, we have established a seasonal hydrologic forecasting system over Africa. ...
Xing Yuan; Eric F. Wood; Nathaniel W. Chaney; Justin Sheffield; Jonghun Kam; Miaoling Liang; Kaiyu Guan
Port Royal, Jamaica, and the slave trade
In the eighteenth century, the British Empire rose to an eminent role in transatlantic slave trade. British ships are thought to have transported more individuals into bondage during this century than in any other period in the history of human existence. Arguably the wealthiest city in the British colonies of the New World, Port Royal, Jamaica, was an important center of the maritime slave trade. This thesis concerns the role of the slave trade in the maritime community of Port Royal during the later half of the seventeenth century and the early eighteenth century, a time when Port Royal was at its commercial peak and the British slave trade was undergoing its greatest development. Primary and secondary sources provide a basis for understanding the conduct of the slave trade in Port Royal. Primary documents, which include official records, personal accounts, correspondence, probate inventories, wills and records of deeds and grants, reveal information beyond census and volume of the trade. These documents afford the opportunity to study Port Royal's slave trade on an individual level. The documents record the various participants in the trade, such as slaves, traders and purchasers, agencies and agents, and investors, so that relationships and roles can be assessed and the nature and conduct of the trade can be interpreted. Underwater excavation of the ship Henrietta Marie has yielded a significant representative collection of the slave trade's material culture. Wrecked at the turn of the eighteenth century in the Florida Keys, Henrietta Marie had just quit Port Royal after off-loading her human cargo. The artifact collection of shackles, ship's equipment and trade goods represents the trappings of the maritime slave trade. Particularly, the shackles are a grim reminder of the trade's more brutal aspects. Comparative analysis of this collection with shackles recovered from other sites reveals the role of these devices in the slave trade.
Johnson, David A
The Strategy of Professional Forecasting
This paper develops and compares two theories of strategic behavior of professional forecasters. The first theory posits that forecasters compete in a forecasting contest with pre-specified rules. In equilibrium of a winner-take-all contest, forecasts are excessively differentiated. According to the alternative reputational cheap talk theory, forecasters aim at convincing the market that they are well informed. The market evaluates their forecasting talent on the basis of the forecasts and the realized state. If the market expects forecaster honesty, forecasts are shaded toward the prior mean. With correct market expectations, equilibrium forecasts are imprecise but not shaded.
Marco Ottaviani; Peter Norman S�rensen
Essays in international trade
This thesis is a collection of essays on the effect of trade costs on international trade. Chapter 1 derives and empirically examines how factor proportions determine the structure of commodity trade when international ...
Romalis, John
Business forecasting methods
Forecasting is a common statistical task in business, where it helps inform decisions about scheduling of production, transportation and personnel, and provides a guide to long-term strategic planning. However, business forecasting is often done poorly and is frequently confused with planning and goals. They are three different things. Forecasting is about predicting the future as accurately as possible, given all the information available including historical data and knowledge of any future events that might impact the forecasts. Goals are what you would like to happen. Goals should be linked to forecasts and plans, but this does not always occur. Too often, goals are set without any plan for how to achieve them, and no forecasts for whether they are realistic. Planning is a response to forecasts and goals. Planning involves determining the appropriate actions that are required to make your forecasts match your goals. Forecasting should be an integral part of the decision-making activities of management, as it can play an important role in many areas of a company. Modern organizations require short-, medium- and long-term forecasts, depending on the specific application.
Annual Energy Outlook with Projections to 2025-Forecast Comparisons
Forecast Comparisons Forecast Comparisons Annual Energy Outlook 2004 with Projections to 2025 Forecast Comparisons Index (click to jump links) Economic Growth World Oil Prices Total Energy Consumption Electricity Natural Gas Petroleum Coal The AEO2004 forecast period extends through 2025. One other organizationGlobal Insight, Incorporated (GII)produces a comprehensive energy projection with a similar time horizon. Several others provide forecasts that address one or more aspects of energy markets over different time horizons. Recent projections from GII and others are compared here with the AEO2004 projections. Economic Growth Printer Friendly Version Average annual percentage growth Forecast 2002-2008 2002-2013 2002-2025 AEO2003 3.2 3.3 3.1 AEO2004 Reference 3.3 3.2 3.0
5.5 ENSEMBLE RE-FORECASTING : IMPROVING MEDIUM-RANGE FORECAST SKILL USING RETROSPECTIVE FORECASTS, Colorado 1. INTRODUCTION Improving weather forecasts is a primary goal of the U.S. National Oceanic predictions has been to improve the accuracy of the numerical forecast models. Much effort has been expended
Hamill, Tom
Stock Trading Using RSPOP: A Novel Rough Set-Based Neuro-Fuzzy Approach
This paper investigates the method of forecasting stock price difference on artificially generated price series data using neuro-fuzzy systems and neural networks. As trading profits is more important to an investor than statistical performance, this ... Keywords: Forecasting theory, fuzzy neural networks, rough set theory, stock market, time series
K. K. Ang; C. Quek
ORNL integrated forecasting system
This paper describes the integrated system for forecasting electric energy and load. In the system, service area models of electrical energy (kWh) and load distribution (minimum and maximum loads and load duration curve) are linked to a state-level model of electrical energy (kWh). Thus, the service area forecasts are conditional upon the state-level forecasts. Such a linkage reduces considerably the data requirements for modeling service area electricity demand.
Rizy, C.G.
Short-Termed Integrated Forecasting System: 1993 Model documentation report
The purpose of this report is to define the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) and describe its basic properties. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the US Energy Department (DOE) developed the STIFS model to generate short-term (up to 8 quarters), monthly forecasts of US supplies, demands, imports exports, stocks, and prices of various forms of energy. The models that constitute STIFS generate forecasts for a wide range of possible scenarios, including the following ones done routinely on a quarterly basis: A base (mid) world oil price and medium economic growth. A low world oil price and high economic growth. A high world oil price and low economic growth. This report is written for persons who want to know how short-term energy markets forecasts are produced by EIA. The report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the public.
Not Available
Online 24-h solar power forecasting based on weather typeweather observations at blue hill massachusetts,� Solarof weather patterns on the intensity of solar irradiance;
2.1.2 European Solar Radiation Atlas (ESRA)2.4 Evaluation of Solar Forecasting . . . . . . . . .2.4.1 Solar Variability . . . . . . . . . . . . .
forecast | OpenEI
Browse Upload data GDR Community Login | Sign Up Search Facebook icon Twitter icon forecast Dataset Summary Description The EIA's annual energy outlook (AEO) contains yearly...
Seasonal tropical cyclone forecasts
Seasonal forecasts of tropical cyclone activity in various regions have been developed since the first attempts in the early 1980s by Neville
Suzana J. Camargo; Anthony G. Barnston; Philip J. Klotzbach; Christopher W. Landsea
Probabilistic Forecasts from the National Digital Forecast Database
The Bayesian processor of forecast (BPF) is developed for a continuous predictand. Its purpose is to process a deterministic forecast (a point estimate of the predictand) into a probabilistic forecast (a distribution function, a density function, ...
Roman Krzysztofowicz; W. Britt Evans
Highlights Highlights World energy consumption is projected to increase by 57 percent from 2002 to 2025. Much of the growth in worldwide energy use in the IEO2005 reference case forecast is expected in the countries with emerging economies. Figure 1. World Marketed Energy Consumptiion by Region, 1970-2025. Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Figure Data In the International Energy Outlook 2005 (IEO2005) reference case, world marketed energy consumption is projected to increase on average by 2.0 percent per year over the 23-year forecast horizon from 2002 to 2025slightly lower than the 2.2-percent average annual growth rate from 1970 to 2002. Worldwide, total energy use is projected to grow from 412 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) in 2002 to 553 quadrillion Btu in
Global and Local Skill Forecasts
A skill forecast gives the probability distribution for the error in a forecast. Statistically, Well-founded skill forecasting methods have so far only been applied within the context of simple models. In this paper, the growth of analysis errors ...
P. L. Houtekamer
Distortion Representation of Forecast Errors
Forecast error is decomposed into three components, termed displacement error, amplitude error, mid residual error, respectively. Displacement error measures how much of the forecast error can be accounted for by moving the forecast to best fit ...
Ross N. Hoffman; Zheng Liu; Jean-Francois Louis; Christopher Grassoti
Composite forecasting in commodity systems
Paper No. COMPOSI1E FORECASTING IN CO/Yt.flDITI SYSTfu\\1S1980 .i CfIAPTER COMPOSITE FORECASTING IN COMMOOITY SYSTEMS*to utilizeeconometric .modelsfor forecasting ! ,urposes. The
Johnson, Stanley R; Rausser, Gordon C.
Arnold Schwarzenegger INTEGRATED FORECAST AND
Arnold Schwarzenegger Governor INTEGRATED FORECAST AND RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT (INFORM) FOR NORTHERN; the former with primary contributions in the areas of climate and hydrologic forecasting and the latter Service (NWS) California Nevada River Forecast Center (CNRFC), the California Department of Water
CONSULTANT REPORT DEMAND FORECAST EXPERT PANEL INITIAL forecast, end-use demand modeling, econometric modeling, hybrid demand modeling, energyMahon, Carl Linvill 2012. Demand Forecast Expert Panel Initial Assessment. California Energy
Does the term structure forecast
provides more accurate forecasts of real consumption growth14. Harvey, C.R. (1989): \\Forecasts of economic growth fromC.R. (1993): \\Term structure forecasts economic growth", Fi-
Berardi, Andrea; Torous, Walter
The EU�s Emissions Trading Scheme: A Proto-Type Global System?
The European Union's Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS) is the world's first multinational cap-and-trade system for greenhouse gases. As an agreement between sovereign nations with diverse historical, institutional, and ...
The EU�s Emissions Trading Scheme: A Prototype Global System?
Coefficients for Debiasing Forecasts
Skill-score decompositions can be used to analyze the effects of bias on forecasting skill. However, since bias terms are typically squared, and bias is measured in skill-score units rather than in units of the forecasts, such decompositions only ...
Thomas R. Stewart; Patricia Reagan-Cirincione
Evaluating Point Forecasts
Typically, point forecasting methods are compared and assessed by means of an error measure or scoring function, such as the absolute error or the squared error. The individual scores are then averaged over forecast cases, to result in a summary measure of the predictive performance, such as the mean absolute error or the (root) mean squared error. I demonstrate that this common practice can lead to grossly misguided inferences, unless the scoring function and the forecasting task are carefully matched. Effective point forecasting requires that the scoring function be specified ex ante, or that the forecaster receives a directive in the form of a statistical functional, such as the mean or a quantile of the predictive distribution. If the scoring function is specified ex ante, the forecaster can issue the optimal point forecast, namely, the Bayes rule. If the forecaster receives a directive in the form of a functional, it is critical that the scoring function be consistent for it, in the sense that the expect...
Gneiting, Tilmann
Forecasters � Objectives and Strategies ?
This chapter develops a unified modeling framework for analyzing the strategic behavior of forecasters. The theoretical model encompasses reputational objectives, competition for the best accuracy, and bias. Also drawing from the extensive literature on analysts, we review the empirical evidence on strategic forecasting and illustrate how our model can be structurally estimated.
Iv�n Marinovic; Marco Ottaviani; Peter Norman S�rensen
Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Actual vs. Forecasts Available formats Excel (.xls) for printable spreadsheet data (Microsoft Excel required) PDF (Acrobat Reader required) Table 2. Total Energy Consumption HTML, Excel, PDF Table 3. Total Petroleum Consumption HTML, Excel, PDF Table 4. Total Natural Gas Consumption HTML, Excel, PDF Table 5. Total Coal Consumption HTML, Excel, PDF Table 6. Total Electricity Sales HTML, Excel, PDF Table 7. Crude Oil Production HTML, Excel, PDF Table 8. Natural Gas Production HTML, Excel, PDF Table 9. Coal Production HTML, Excel, PDF Table 10. Net Petroleum Imports HTML, Excel, PDF Table 11. Net Natural Gas Imports HTML, Excel, PDF Table 12. Net Coal Exports HTML, Excel, PDF Table 13. World Oil Prices HTML, Excel, PDF
A New Verification Score for Public Forecasts
CREF, a new verification score for public forecasts, is introduced. This verification score rewards a forecaster who forecasts a rare event accurately. CREF was used to verify local forecasts at the Weather Service Forecast Office (WSFO) in ...
Dean P. Gulezian
The role of ICTs in downscaling and up-scaling integrated weather forecasts for farmers in sub-Saharan Africa
Despite global advancements in technology and inter-trade volumes, Sub-Saharan Africa is the only Region where cases of hunger have increased since 1990. Rampant and frequent droughts are one of the major causes of this. Monumental and mostly donor-funded ... Keywords: Nganyi clan of western Kenya, indigenous knowledge weather forecasts, seasonal climate forecasts, sub-Saharan Africa, wireless sensor networks
Muthoni Masinde; Antoine Bagula; Nzioka J. Muthama
· NATIONAL AND GLOBAL FORECASTS · WEST VIRGINIA PROFILES AND FORECASTS · ENERGY · HEALTHCARE Industry Insight: West Virginia Fiscal Forecast 34 CHAPTER 4: WEST ViRGiNiA'S 35 COUNTiES AND MSAs West Forecast Summary 2 CHAPTER 1: THE UNiTED STATES ECONOMY Figure 1.1: United States Real GDP Growth 3 Figure
Mohaghegh, Shahab
1 APPLICATION OF PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS: DECISION MAKING WITH FORECAST UNCERTAINTY Rick Katz.isse.ucar.edu/HP_rick/dmuu.pdf #12;2 QUOTES ON USE OF PROBABILITY FORECASTS · Lao Tzu (Chinese Philosopher) "He who knows does and Value of Probability Forecasts (4) Cost-Loss Decision-Making Model (5) Simulation Example (6) Economic
Katz, Richard
Why are survey forecasts superior to model forecasts?
We investigate two characteristics of survey forecasts that are shown to contribute to their superiority over purely model-based forecasts. These are that the consensus forecasts incorporate the effects of perceived changes in the long-run outlook, as well as embodying departures from the path toward the long-run expectation. Both characteristics on average tend to enhance forecast accuracy. At the level of the individual forecasts, there is scant evidence that the second characteristic enhances forecast accuracy, and the average accuracy of the individual forecasts can be improved by applying a mechanical correction.
Michael P. Clements; Michael P. Clements
Electricity Electricity Electricity consumption nearly doubles in the IEO2005 projection period. The emerging economies of Asia are expected to lead the increase in world electricity use. Figure 58. World Net Electricity Consumption, 2002-2025 (Billion Kilowatthours). Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Figure Data Figure 59. World Net Electricity Consumption by Region, 2002-2025 (Billion Kilowatthours). Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Figure Data The International Energy Outlook 2005 (IEO2005) reference case projects that world net electricity consumption will nearly double over the next two decades.10 Over the forecast period, world electricity demand is projected to grow at an average rate of 2.6 percent per year, from 14,275 billion
LOAD FORECASTING Eugene A. Feinberg
's electricity price forecasting model, produces forecast of gas demand consistent with electric load. #12Gas demand Council's Market Price of Electricity Forecast Natural GasDemand Electric Load Aggregating Natural between the natural gas and electricity and new uses of natural gas emerge. T natural gas forecasts
Feinberg, Eugene A.
Demand Forecast INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY
Demand Forecast INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY A 20-year forecast of electricity demand is a required of any forecast of electricity demand and developing ways to reduce the risk of planning errors that could arise from this and other uncertainties in the planning process. Electricity demand is forecast
Electricity price short-term forecasting using artificial neural networks
This paper presents the System Marginal Price (SMP) short-term forecasting implementation using the Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) computing technique. The described approach uses the three-layered ANN paradigm with back-propagation. The retrospective SMP real-world data, acquired from the deregulated Victorian power system, was used for training and testing the ANN. The results presented in this paper confirm considerable value of the ANN based approach in forecasting the SMP.
Szkuta, B.R.; Sanabria, L.A.; Dillon, T.S. [La Trobe Univ., Melbourne (Australia). Applied Computing Research Inst.
Factors Driving Prices & Forecast
This spread is a function of the balance between demand and fresh supply (production and net imports). Finally I will discuss the current forecast for distillate prices this winter...
Modeling and Forecasting Aurora
Modeling the physical processes needed for forecasting space-weather events requires multiscale modeling. This article discusses several modelsresearchers use to treat the various auroral processes that influence space weather.
Dirk Lummerzheim
Valuing Climate Forecast Information
The article describes research opportunities associated with evaluating the characteristics of climate forecasts in settings where sequential decisions are made. Illustrative results are provided for corn production in east central Illinois. ...
Steven T. Sonka; James W. Mjelde; Peter J. Lamb; Steven E. Hollinger; Bruce L. Dixon
Wind forecasting objectives for utility schedulers and energy traders
DOE Green Energy (OSTI)
The wind energy industry and electricity producers can benefit in a number of ways from increased wind forecast accuracy. Higher confidence in the reliability of wind forecasts can help persuade an electric utility to increase the penetration of wind energy into its operating system and to augment the capacity value of wind electric generation. Reliable forecasts can also assist daily energy traders employed by utilities in marketing the available and anticipated wind energy to power pools and other energy users. As the number of utilities with wind energy experience grows, and wind energy penetration levels increase, the need for reliable wind forecasts will likely grow as well. This period of wind energy growth also coincides with advances in computer weather prediction technology that could lead to more accurate wind forecasts. Thus, it is important to identify the type of forecast information needed by utility schedulers and energy traders. This step will help develop approaches to the challenge of wind forecasting that will result in useful products being supplied to utilities or other energy generating entities. This paper presents the objectives, approach, and current findings of a US Department of Energy National Renewable Energy Laboratory (DOE/NREL) initiative to develop useful wind forecasting tools for utilities involved with wind energy generation. The focus of this initiative thus far has been to learn about the needs of prospective utility users. NREL representatives conducted a series of onsite interviews with key utility staff, usually schedulers and research planners, at seven US utilities. The purpose was to ascertain information on actual scheduling and trading procedures, and how utilities could integrate wind forecasting into these activities.
Schwartz, M.N. [National Renewable Energy Lab., Golden, CO (United States); Bailey, B.H. [AWS Scientific, Inc., Albany, NY (United States)
Impacts of globlisation and trade liberalisation on small households in Vietnam livestock sector.
??Vietnam has negotiated a series of bilateral and multilateral trade agreements and has made significant steps in integrating into the world economy. This integration is� (more)
Pham, Thi Ngoc Linh
Aspects of Late Helladic sea trade
The trade mechanisms joining the Mycenaean Aegean to the greater Levant have intrigued and eluded Bronze Age scholarship since the earliest discoveries of foreign objects in Mycenaean burials. In the past decade, topics of interregional trade in the eastern Mediterranean have enjoyed renewed discussions, inspired in no small part by the excavation of the Uluburun shipwreck. Data generated from the shipwreck is amounting to an extraordinary body of evidence for contact between the Aegean and the Near East. The proposed Mycenaean presence on board the Uluburun ship requires that the sum of evidence and hypotheses for trade between the two regions be re-examined. By attempting to demonstrate the role the Mycenaeans had performed on the last journey of the Uluburun ship, an important mechanism of trade may be revealed between the Aegean and Semitic worlds.
Bachhuber, Christoph Stephen
Materials Sustainability: Digital Resource Center - Recycler's World
Jun 30, 2008 ... Recycler's World promotes the trade of scrap materials. Users can post a listing for the type of scrap material they wish to buy or sell. Source:�...
Forecasting in the Presence of Level Shifts
accuracy. Journal of Forecasting 19 : 537-560. Hamilton JD.430. Harvey AC. 1989. Forecasting, structural time seriesMH, Timmermann A. 1994. Forecasting stock returns: An
Smith, Aaron
Multivariate Forecast Evaluation And Rationality Testing
1062�1088. MULTIVARIATE FORECASTS Chaudhuri, P. (1996): �OnKingdom. MULTIVARIATE FORECASTS Kirchg�ssner, G. , and U. K.2005): �Estimation and Testing of Forecast Rationality under
Komunjer, Ivana; OWYANG, MICHAEL
We examine the accuracy and bias of intrinsic equity prices estimated from three accounting-based valuation models using analyst�s earnings forecasts over a four-year horizon. The models are: (a) the earnings capitalization model, (b) the residual income model without a terminal value, and (c) the residual income model with a terminal value that assumes residual income will grow beyond the horizon at a constant rate determined from the expected residual income growth rate over the forecast horizon. Our analysis is based on valuation errors that are calculated by comparing estimated prices to actual prices. We contribute to the literature by examining whether: (i) the analysts � earnings forecasts convey information about value beyond that conveyed by current earnings, book value and dividends, (ii) the use of firm specific growth rates in terminal value calculations results in more unbiased and accurate valuations than the use of constant growth rates, and (iii) different models perform better under different ex-ante conditions. We find that analysts � earnings forecasts convey information about value beyond that conveyed by current earnings, book values and dividends. Each of the models that we used has valuation errors that decline monotonically as the horizon increases implying that earnings forecasts at each horizon convey new value relevant information. We cannot find a clear advantage to using firm specific growth rates instead of a constant rate of 4 % across all sample
Theodore Sougiannis; Takashi Yaekura
World Natural Gas, 1978
World marketed production of natural gas in 1978 totaled 51.749 trillion CF (up from 50.1 TCF in 1977); this 3.3% increase, however, was slightly lower than 1977's 3.7% rise. US production, which fell 0.3% dropped to 38.6% of the world total, while the USSR share (13.137 TCF) accounted for 25.4% (for a growth rate of 7.5%). Of the world gross production of 62.032 TCF, 69.7% came from gas wells; the remainder was associated with oil. Thirty-one percent of the 10.282 TCF difference between gross and marketed gas production was used for oil reservoir repressuring, while the balance (7.094 TCF) was vented and flared. Internationally traded gas movements rose to 11.6% of production. The Netherlands, the USSR, and Canada accounted for 30.6%, 20.1% and 14.7%, respectively, of total 1978 exports. At 0.956 TCF, LNG shipments accounted for 15.9% of world trade, a 35.2% higher share than in 1977; most of this growth was due to increased Indonesia-to-Japan volumes.
Following the leader: A study of individual analysts� earnings forecasts
This paper develops and tests procedures for identifying lead analysts based on the timeliness of analyst forecast revisions, the trading levels associated with these revisions, and forecast accuracy. Our framework provides an objective assessment of analyst quality that differs from the standard approach that uses survey evidence to rate analysts. Using a sample of equity analysts, we find that lead analysts identified by our procedures have more price impact than follower analysts. Evidence also is presented that suggests analysts use recent stock price trends to help them modify forecast revisions, regardless of whether the analyst is a leader or a follower. Finally, we find that our ranking procedures based on timeliness, trading volume, and accuracy are consistent. That is, if analysts are selected as Full service brokerage firms provide many services to their customers in addition to the execution of trades. One such service is the provision of information concerning the investment value of equity securities. This information is typically produced by analysts with expertise in tracking certain industries and selected firms within those industries. The
Rick A. Cooper; Theodore E. Day; Craig M. Lewis
Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting 1998
Issues in Midterm Analysis and Forecasting 1998 (Issues) presents a series of nine papers covering topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98), as well as other significant issues in midterm energy markets. AEO98, DOE/EIA-0383(98), published in December 1997, presents national forecasts of energy production, demand, imports, and prices through the year 2020 for five cases -- a reference case and four additional cases that assume higher and lower economic growth and higher and lower world oil prices than in the reference case. The forecasts were prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), using EIA`s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The papers included in Issues describe underlying analyses for the projections in AEO98 and the forthcoming Annual Energy Outlook 1999 and for other products of EIA`s Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. Their purpose is to provide public access to analytical work done in preparation for the midterm projections and other unpublished analyses. Specific topics were chosen for their relevance to current energy issues or to highlight modeling activities in NEMS. 59 figs., 44 tabs.
CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 REVISED FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand Robert P. Oglesby Executive Director #12;i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The demand forecast is the combined prepared the commercial sector forecast. Mehrzad Soltani Nia helped prepare the industrial forecast
U.S.-Sub-Saharan Trade Report/Profile | Data.gov
U.S.-Sub-Saharan Trade Report/Profile U.S.-Sub-Saharan Trade Report/Profile Manufacturing Data/Tools Research/Tech Services Apps Challenges Blogs Let's Talk Manufacturing You are here Data.gov » Communities » Manufacturing » Data U.S.-Sub-Saharan Trade Report/Profile Dataset Summary Description The quarterly trade "Report" and yearly "Profile" provide an overview of U.S. trade with Sub-Saharan Africa. The Profile is a more extensive version of the Report. Using data essentially from the World Trade Atlas, Census, IMF, and the World Bank, the report and profile describe: Sub-Saharan Africa's global trade and economic growth, U.S. imports and exports to/from Sub-Saharan Africa, and U.S. direct investment to the region. Tags {Africa,"Sub-Saharan Africa","U.S. trade"}
Demand Trading Toolkit
Download report 1006017 for FREE. The global movement toward competitive markets is paving the way for a variety of market mechanisms that promise to increase market efficiency and expand customer choice options. Demand trading offers customers, energy service providers, and other participants in power markets the opportunity to buy and sell demand-response resources, just as they now buy and sell blocks of power. EPRI's Demand Trading Toolkit (DTT) describes the principles and practice of demand trading...
Demand Trading: Building Liquidity
Demand trading holds substantial promise as a mechanism for efficiently integrating demand-response resources into regional power markets. However, regulatory uncertainty, the lack of proper price signals, limited progress toward standardization, problems in supply-side markets, and other factors have produced illiquidity in demand-trading markets and stalled the expansion of demand-response resources. This report shows how key obstacles to demand trading can be overcome, including how to remove the unce...
Quantile Forecasting of Commodity Futures' Returns: Are Implied Volatility Factors Informative?
This study develops a multi-period log-return quantile forecasting procedure to evaluate the performance of eleven nearby commodity futures contracts (NCFC) using a sample of 897 daily price observations and at-the-money (ATM) put and call implied volatilities of the corresponding prices for the period from 1/16/2008 to 7/29/2011. The statistical approach employs dynamic log-returns quantile regression models to forecast price densities using implied volatilities (IVs) and factors estimated through principal component analysis (PCA) from the IVs, pooled IVs and lagged returns. Extensive in-sample and out-of-sample analyses are conducted, including assessment of excess trading returns, and evaluations of several combinations of quantiles, model specifications, and NCFC's. The results suggest that the IV-PCA-factors, particularly pooled return-IV-PCA-factors, improve quantile forecasting power relative to models using only individual IV information. The ratio of the put-IV to the call-IV is also found to improve quantile forecasting performance of log returns. Improvements in quantile forecasting performance are found to be better in the tails of the distribution than in the center. Trading performance based on quantile forecasts from the models above generated significant excess returns. Finally, the fact that the single IV forecasts were outperformed by their quantile regression (QR) counterparts suggests that the conditional distribution of the log-returns is not normal.
Dorta, Miguel
Energy Forecasting Framework and Emissions Consensus Tool (EFFECT) | Open
Energy Forecasting Framework and Emissions Consensus Tool (EFFECT) Energy Forecasting Framework and Emissions Consensus Tool (EFFECT) Jump to: navigation, search LEDSGP green logo.png FIND MORE DIA TOOLS This tool is part of the Development Impacts Assessment (DIA) Toolkit from the LEDS Global Partnership. Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Energy Forecasting Framework and Emissions Consensus Tool (EFFECT) Agency/Company /Organization: Energy Sector Management Assistance Program of the World Bank Sector: Energy Focus Area: Non-renewable Energy Topics: Baseline projection, Co-benefits assessment, GHG inventory Resource Type: Software/modeling tools User Interface: Spreadsheet Complexity/Ease of Use: Simple Website: www.esmap.org/esmap/EFFECT Cost: Free Equivalent URI: www.esmap.org/esmap/EFFECT Energy Forecasting Framework and Emissions Consensus Tool (EFFECT) Screenshot
Consensus Coal Production Forecast for
Consensus Coal Production Forecast for West Virginia 2009-2030 Prepared for the West Virginia Summary 1 Recent Developments 2 Consensus Coal Production Forecast for West Virginia 10 Risks References 27 #12;W.Va. Consensus Coal Forecast Update 2009 iii List of Tables 1. W.Va. Coal Production
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST METHODS REPORT Companion Report to the California Energy Demand 2006-2016 Staff Energy Demand Forecast Report STAFFREPORT June 2005 CEC-400 .......................................................................................................................................1-1 ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING AT THE CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION: AN OVERVIEW
Forecast Technical Document Technical Glossary
Forecast Technical Document Technical Glossary A document defining some of the terms used in the 2011 Production Forecast technical documentation. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley in the Forecast documentation. In some cases, the terms and the descriptions are "industry standard", in others
Forecast Technical Document Tree Species
Forecast Technical Document Tree Species A document listing the tree species included in the 2011 Production Forecast Tom Jenkins Justin Gilbert Ewan Mackie Robert Matthews #12;PF2011 List of tree species The following is the list of species used within the Forecast System. Species are ordered alphabetically
3, 21452173, 2006 Probabilistic forecast
HESSD 3, 21452173, 2006 Probabilistic forecast verification F. Laio and S. Tamea Title Page for probabilistic forecasts of continuous hydrological variables F. Laio and S. Tamea DITIC Department2173, 2006 Probabilistic forecast verification F. Laio and S. Tamea Title Page Abstract Introduction
Paris-Sud XI, Université de
4, 189212, 2007 Forecast and
OSD 4, 189212, 2007 Forecast and analysis assessment through skill scores M. Tonani et al. Title Science Forecast and analysis assessment through skill scores M. Tonani 1 , N. Pinardi 2 , C. Fratianni 1 Forecast and analysis assessment through skill scores M. Tonani et al. Title Page Abstract Introduction
predecessors to forecast stock prices and manage portfolios for approximately 3 years.) We examineFINANCIAL FORECASTING USING GENETIC ALGORITHMS SAM MAHFOUD and GANESH MANI LBS Capital Management entitled Genetic Algorithms for Inductive Learning). Time-series forecasting is a special type
Boetticher, Gary D.
Forecast of auroral activity
A new technique is developed to predict auroral activity based on a sample of over 9000 auroral sites identified in global auroral images obtained by an ultraviolet imager on the NASA Polar satellite during a 6-month period. Four attributes of auroral activity sites are utilized in forecasting
A. T. Y. Lui
We validated one year of Global Forecast System (GFS) predictions of surface meteorological variables (wind speed, air temperature, dewpoint temperature, air pressure) over the entire planet for forecasts extending from zero hours into the future (an analysis) to 36 hours. Approximately 12,000 surface stations world-wide were included in this analysis. Root-Mean-Square- Errors (RMSE) increased as the forecast period increased from zero to 36 hours, but the initial RMSE were almost as large as the 36 hour forecast RMSE for all variables. Typical RMSE were 3 C for air temperature, 2-3mb for sea-level pressure, 3.5 C for dewpoint temperature and 2.5 m/s for wind speed. Approximately 20-40% of the GFS errors can be attributed to a lack of resolution of local features. We attribute the large initial RMSE for the zero hour forecasts to the inability of the GFS to resolve local terrain features that often dominate local weather conditions, e.g., mountain- valley circulations and sea and land breezes. Since the horizontal resolution of the GFS (about 1{sup o} of latitude and longitude) prevents it from simulating these locally-driven circulations, its performance will not improve until model resolution increases by a factor of 10 or more (from about 100 km to less than 10 km). Since this will not happen in the near future, an alternative for the near term to improve surface weather analyses and predictions for specific points in space and time would be implementation of a high-resolution, limited-area mesoscale atmospheric prediction model in regions of interest.
Werth, D.; Garrett, A.
Verification of Nowcasts from the WWRP Sydney 2000 Forecast Demonstration Project
The verification phase of the World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) Sydney 2000 Forecast Demonstration Project (FDP) was intended to measure the skill of the participating nowcast algorithms in predicting the location of convection, rainfall ...
Elizabeth E. Ebert; Laurence J. Wilson; Barbara G. Brown; Pertti Nurmi; Harold E. Brooks; John Bally; Matthias Jaeneke
Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation
by Esmeralda Sánchez The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has produced an annual evaluation of the accuracy of the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on the prior year by adding the projections from the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. The Forecast Evaluation examines the accuracy of AEO forecasts dating back to AEO82 by calculating the average absolute forecast errors for each of the major variables for AEO82 through AEO2003. The average absolute forecast error, which for the purpose of this report will also be referred to simply as "average error" or "forecast error", is computed as the simple mean, or average, of all the absolute values of the percent errors,
Detecting and forecasting economic regimes in multi-agent automated exchanges
We show how an autonomous agent can use observable market conditions to characterize the microeconomic situation of the market and predict market trends. The agent can use this information for tactical decisions, such as pricing, and strategic decisions, ... Keywords: Agent-mediated electronic commerce, Dynamic pricing, Machine learning, Market forecasting, Trading agents
Wolfgang Ketter; John Collins; Maria Gini; Alok Gupta; Paul Schrater
A GA-weighted ANFIS model based on multiple stock market volatility causality for TAIEX forecasting
Stock market forecasting is important and interesting, because the successful prediction of stock prices may promise attractive benefits. The economy of Taiwan relies on international trade deeply, and the fluctuations of international stock markets ... Keywords: ANFIS, Genetic algorithm, Neural network, Weighted rule
Liang-Ying Wei
Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications of Ensemble Statistical Procedures
Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications ofidentify with useful forecasting skill the very few inmatescontribute substantially to forecasting skill necessarily
Berk, Richard; Kriegler, Brian; Baek, Jong-Ho
Information and Inference in Econometrics: Estimation, Testing and Forecasting
Application: Forecasting Equity Premium . . . . . . . . . .2.6.1 Forecasting4 Forecasting Using Supervised Factor Models 4.1
Tu, Yundong
Richard A. Berk; Brian Kriegler; Jong-Ho Baek
Management Earnings Forecasts and Value of Analyst Forecast Revisions
Prior studies evaluate the relative importance of the sources of value that financial analysts bring to the market based on the price impact of forecast revisions over the event time. We find that management earnings forecasts influence the timing and precision of analyst forecasts. More importantly, evidence suggests that prior studies � finding of weaker (stronger) stock-price responses to forecast revisions in the period immediately after (before) the prior-quarter earnings announcement is likely to be the artifact of a temporal pattern of management earnings forecasts over the event time. To the extent that management earnings forecasts are public disclosures, our results suggest that the relative importance of analysts ' information discovery role documented in prior studies is likely to be overstated.
Yongtae Kim; Minsup Song
by Esmeralda Sanchez by Esmeralda Sanchez Errata -(7/14/04) The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has produced an annual evaluation of the accuracy of the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on the prior year by adding the projections from the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. The Forecast Evaluation examines the accuracy of AEO forecasts dating back to AEO82 by calculating the average absolute forecast errors for each of the major variables for AEO82 through AEO2003. The average absolute forecast error, which for the purpose of this report will also be referred to simply as "average error" or "forecast error", is computed as the simple mean, or average, of all the absolute values of the percent errors, expressed as the percentage difference between the Reference Case projection and actual historic value, shown for every AEO and for each year in the forecast horizon (for a given variable). The historical data are typically taken from the Annual Energy Review (AER). The last column of Table 1 provides a summary of the most recent average absolute forecast errors. The calculation of the forecast error is shown in more detail in Tables 2 through 18. Because data for coal prices to electric generating plants were not available from the AER, data from the Monthly Energy Review (MER), July 2003 were used.
Chapter 11 Forecasting breaks and forecasting during breaks
Success in accurately forecasting breaks requires that they are predictable from relevant information available at the forecast origin using an appropriate model form, which can be selected and estimated before the break. To clarify the roles of these six necessary conditions, we distinguish between the information set for �normal forces � and the one for �break drivers�, then outline sources of potential information. Relevant non-linear, dynamic models facing multiple breaks can have more candidate variables than observations, so we discuss automatic model selection. As a failure to accurately forecast breaks remains likely, we augment our strategy by modelling breaks during their progress, and consider robust forecasting devices.
Jennifer L. Castle; Nicholas W. P. Fawcett; David F. Hendry
Forecasting Uncertain Hotel Room Demand
Economic systems are characterized by increasing uncertainty in their dynamics. This increasing uncertainty is likely to incur bad decisions that can be costly in financial terms. This makes forecasting of uncertain economic variables an instrumental activity in any organization. This paper takes the hotel industry as a practical application of forecasting using the Holt-Winters method. The problem here is to forecast the uncertain demand for rooms at a hotel for each arrival day. Forecasting is part of hotel revenue management system whose objective is to maximize the revenue by making decisions regarding when to make rooms available for customers and at what price. The forecast approach discussed in this paper is based on quantitative models and does not incorporate management expertise. Even though, forecast results are found to be satisfactory for certain days, this is not the case for other arrival days. It is believed that human judgment is important when dealing with ...
Mihir Rajopadhye Mounir; Mounir Ben Ghaliay; Paul P. Wang; Timothy Baker; Craig V. Eister
Forecast Technical Document Growing Stock Volume
Forecast Technical Document Growing Stock Volume Forecasts A document describing how growing stock (`standing') volume is handled in the 2011 Production Forecast. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley Halsall #12;PF2011 Growing stock volume forecasts Background A forecast of standing volume (or
Forecasting Cloud Cover and Atmospheric Seeing for Astronomical Observing: Application and Evaluation of the Global Forecast System
To explore the issue of performing a non-interactive numerical weather forecast with an operational global model in assist of astronomical observing, we use the Xu-Randall cloud scheme and the Trinquet-Vernin AXP seeing model with the global numerical output from the Global Forecast System to generate 3-72h forecasts for cloud coverage and atmospheric seeing, and compare them with sequence observations from 9 sites from different regions of the world with different climatic background in the period of January 2008 to December 2009. The evaluation shows that the proportion of prefect forecast of cloud cover forecast varies from ~50% to ~85%. The probability of cloud detection is estimated to be around ~30% to ~90%, while the false alarm rate is generally moderate and is much lower than the probability of detection in most cases. The seeing forecast has a moderate mean difference (absolute mean difference <0.3" in most cases) and root-mean-square-error or RMSE (0.2"-0.4" in most cases) comparing with the obs...
Ye, Q -z
Aviation forecasting and systems analyses
The 9 papers in this report deal with the following areas: method of allocating airport runway slots; method for forecasting general aviation activity; air traffic control network-planning model based on second-order Markov chains; analyzing ticket-choice decisions of air travelers; assessing the safety and risk of air traffic control systems: risk estimation from rare events; forecasts of aviation fuel consumption in Virginia; estimating the market share of international air carriers; forecasts of passenger and air-cargo activity at Logan International Airport; and forecasting method for general aviation aircraft and their activity.
Geisinger, K.E.; Brander, J.R.G.; Wilson, F.R.; Kohn, H.M.; Polhemus, N.W.
Studies of inflation and forecasting.
??This dissertation contains five research papers in the area of applied econometrics. The two broad themes of the research are inflation and forecasting. The first� (more)
Bermingham, Colin
UWIG Forecasting Workshop -- Albany (Presentation)
This presentation describes the importance of good forecasting for variable generation, the different approaches used by industry, and the importance of validated high-quality data.
Lew, D.
Currency Carry Trades ?
A wave of recent research has studied the predictability of foreign currency returns. A wide variety of forecasting structures have been proposed, including signals such as carry, value, momentum, and the forward curve. Some of these have been explored individually, and others have been used in combination. In this paper we use new econometric tools for binary classification problems to evaluate the merits of a general model encompassing all these signals. We find very strong evidence of forecastability using the full set of signals, both in sample and out-of-sample. The holds true for both an unweighted directional forecast and one weighted by returns. Our preferred model generates economically meaningful returns on a portfolio of nine major currencies versus the U.S. dollar, with favorably Sharpe and skewness characteristics. We also find no relationship between our returns and a conventional set of so-called risk factors. � Keywords: uncovered interest parity, exchange rates, correct classification frontier.
Travis Berge; �scar Jord�; Alan M. Taylor
IEA World Energy Outlook | Open Energy Information
IEA World Energy Outlook IEA World Energy Outlook Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary Name: IEA World Energy Outlook Agency/Company /Organization: International Energy Agency Sector: Energy Focus Area: Conventional Energy, Energy Efficiency, Renewable Energy Topics: Market analysis, Technology characterizations References: World Energy Outlook[1] The 2010 "edition of the World Energy Outlook - the International Energy Agency's flagship publication and leading source of analysis of global energy trends - presents updated projections of energy demand, production, trade and investment, fuel by fuel and region by region to 2035. WEO-2010 includes, for the first time, the result of a new scenario that takes account of the recent commitments that governments have made to
The impact of trade costs on rare earth exports : a stochastic frontier estimation approach.
The study develops a novel stochastic frontier modeling approach to the gravity equation for rare earth element (REE) trade between China and its trading partners between 2001 and 2009. The novelty lies in differentiating betweenbehind the border' trade costs by China and theimplicit beyond the border costs' of China's trading partners. Results indicate that the significance level of the independent variables change dramatically over the time period. While geographical distance matters for trade flows in both periods, the effect of income on trade flows is significantly attenuated, possibly capturing the negative effects of financial crises in the developed world. Second, the total export losses due tobehind the border' trade costs almost tripled over the time period. Finally, looking atimplicit beyond the border' trade costs, results show China gaining in some markets, although it is likely that some countries are substituting away from Chinese REE exports.
Sanyal, Prabuddha; Brady, Patrick Vane; Vugrin, Eric D.
World energy consumption
Historical and projected world energy consumption information is displayed. The information is presented by region and fuel type, and includes a world total. Measurements are in quadrillion Btu. Sources of the information contained in the table are: (1) history--Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 1992, DOE/EIA-0219(92); (2) projections--EIA, World Energy Projections System, 1994. Country amounts include an adjustment to account for electricity trade. Regions or country groups are shown as follows: (1) Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), US (not including US territories), which are included in other (ECD), Canada, Japan, OECD Europe, United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, other Europe, and other OECD; (2) Eurasia--China, former Soviet Union, eastern Europe; (3) rest of world--Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other countries not included in any other group. Fuel types include oil, natural gas, coal, nuclear, and other. Other includes hydroelectricity, geothermal, solar, biomass, wind, and other renewable sources.
Evaluating Density Forecasts: Forecast Combinations, Model Mixtures, Calibration and Sharpness
In a recent article Gneiting, Balabdaoui and Raftery (JRSSB, 2007) propose the criterion of sharpness for the evaluation of predictive distributions or density forecasts. They motivate their proposal by an example in which standard evaluation procedures based on probability integral transforms cannot distinguish between the ideal forecast and several competing forecasts. In this paper we show that their example has some unrealistic features from the perspective of the time-series forecasting literature, hence it is an insecure foundation for their argument that existing calibration procedures are inadequate in practice. We present an alternative, more realistic example in which relevant statistical methods, including information-based methods, provide the required discrimination between competing forecasts. We conclude that there is no need for a subsidiary criterion of sharpness.
James Mitchell; Kenneth F. Wallis
World Labs
Particle Physics Labs Worldwide Elementary Particles Detectors Accelerators Visit World Labs Brookhaven National Laboratory-RHIC CERN -- European Organization for Nuclear Research...
On the Prediction of Forecast Skill
Using 10-day forecast 500 mb height data from the last 7 yr, the potential to predict the skill of numerical weather forecasts is discussed. Four possible predictor sets are described. The first, giving the consistency between adjacent forecasts, ...
T. N. Palmer; S. Tibaldi
Equitable Skill Scores for Categorical Forecasts
Many skill scores used to evaluate categorical forecasts of discrete variables are inequitable, in the sense that constant forecasts of some events lead to better scores than constant forecasts of other events. Inequitable skill scores may ...
Lev S. Gandin; Allan H. Murphy
Whither the Weather Analysis and Forecasting Process?
An argument is made that if human forecasters are to continue to maintain a skill advantage over steadily improving model and guidance forecasts, then ways have to be found to prevent the deterioration of forecaster skills through disuse. The ...
Lance F. Bosart
Lagged Ensembles, Forecast Configuration, and Seasonal Predictions
An analysis of lagged ensemble seasonal forecasts from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) is presented. The focus of the analysis is on the construction of lagged ensemble forecasts ...
Mingyue Chen; Wanqiu Wang; Arun Kumar
Improving Forecast Communication: Linguistic and Cultural Considerations
One goal of weather and climate forecasting is to inform decision making. Effective communication of forecasts to various sectors of the public is essential for meeting that goal, yet studies repeatedly show that forecasts are not well understood ...
Karen Pennesi
An analysis of lagged ensemble seasonal forecasts from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), is presented. The focus of the analysis is on the construction of lagged ensemble forecasts ...
Evaluation of errors in national energy forecasts.
??Energy forecasts are widely used by the U.S. government, politicians, think tanks, and utility companies. While short-term forecasts were reasonably accurate, medium and long-range forecasts� (more)
Sakva, Denys
What Is the True Value of Forecasts?
Understanding the economic value of weather and climate forecasts is of tremendous practical importance. Traditional models that have attempted to gauge forecast value have focused on a best-case scenario, in which forecast users are assumed to ...
Antony Millner
Diagnosing Forecast Errors in Tropical Cyclone Motion
This paper reports on the development of a diagnostic approach that can be used to examine the sources of numerical model forecast error that contribute to degraded tropical cyclone (TC) motion forecasts. Tropical cyclone motion forecasts depend ...
Thomas J. Galarneau Jr.; Christopher A. Davis
Forecasting Electric Vehicle Costs with Experience Curves
April, 5. R 2~1. Dino. "Forecasting the Price Evolution of 1ElectromcProducts," Ioumal of Forecasting, �oL4, No I, 1985.costs and a set of forecasting tools that can be refined as
Lipman, Timonthy E.; Sperling, Daniel
Probabilistic Verification of Monthly Temperature Forecasts
Monthly forecasting bridges the gap between medium-range weather forecasting and seasonal predictions. While such forecasts in the prediction range of 1�4 weeks are vital to many applications in the context of weather and climate risk management, ...
Andreas P. Weigel; Daniel Baggenstos; Mark A. Liniger; Fr�d�ric Vitart; Christof Appenzeller
CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand.Oglesby Executive Director #12;i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The demand forecast is the combined product to the contributing authors listed previously, Mohsen Abrishami prepared the commercial sector forecast. Mehrzad
CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 FINAL FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand The demand forecast is the combined product of the hard work and expertise of numerous California Energy previously, Mohsen Abrishami prepared the commercial sector forecast. Mehrzad Soltani Nia helped prepare
A Forecast for the California Labor Market
issue for the state. A Forecast for the California Laborto Go? � The UCLA Anderson Forecast for the Nation andAngeles: UCLA Anderson Forecast: Nation 1.1 � 1.9. Dhawan,
Mitchell, Daniel J. B.
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION STAFF FORECAST OF 2007 PEAK DEMAND STAFFREPORT June 2006 CEC-400.................................................................................. 9 Sources of Forecast Error....................................................................... .................11 Tables Table 1: Revised versus September 2005 Peak Demand Forecast ......................... 2
Operational Forecaster Uncertainty Needs and Future Roles
Key results of a comprehensive survey of U.S. National Weather Service operational forecast managers concerning the assessment and communication of forecast uncertainty are presented and discussed. The survey results revealed that forecasters are ...
David R. Novak; David R. Bright; Michael J. Brennan
Calibration of Probabilistic Forecasts of Binary Events
Probabilistic forecasts of atmospheric variables are often given as relative frequencies obtained from ensembles of deterministic forecasts. The detrimental effects of imperfect models and initial conditions on the quality of such forecasts can ...
Cristina Primo; Christopher A. T. Ferro; Ian T. Jolliffe; David B. Stephenson
1 CORPORATE GOVERNANCE AND MANAGEMENT EARNINGS FORECAST QUALITY: EVIDENCE FROM FRENCH IPOS Anis attributes, ownership retained, auditor quality, and underwriter reputation and management earnings forecast quality measured by management earnings forecast accuracy and bias. Using 117 French IPOs, we find
Forecasting women's apparel sales using mathematical
Forecasting women's apparel sales using mathematical modeling Celia Frank and Ashish Garg, USA Les Sztandera Philadelphia University, Philadelphia, PA, USA Keywords Apparel, Forecasting average (MA), auto- regression (AR), or combinations of them are used for forecasting sales. Since
Raheja, Amar
Calibration of Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts
From 1 August 1990 to 31 July 1995, the Weather Service Forecast Office in Pittsburgh prepared 6159 probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts. Forecasts were made twice a day for 24-h periods beginning at 0000 and 1200 UTC for two river ...
Roman Krzysztofowicz; Ashley A. Sigrest
Evaluating Probabilistic Forecasts Using Information Theory
The problem of assessing the quality of an operational forecasting system that produces probabilistic forecasts is addressed using information theory. A measure of the quality of the forecasting scheme, based on the amount of a data compression ...
Mark S. Roulston; Leonard A. Smith
Virtual Floe Ice Drift Forecast Model Intercomparison
Both sea ice forecast models and methods to measure their skill are needed for operational sea ice forecasting. Two simple sea ice models are described and tested here. Four different measures of skill are also tested. The forecasts from the ...
Robert W. Grumbine
Ensemble Cloud Model Applications to Forecasting Thunderstorms
A cloud model ensemble forecasting approach is developed to create forecasts that describe the range and distribution of thunderstorm lifetimes that may be expected to occur on a particular day. Such forecasts are crucial for anticipating severe ...
Kimberly L. Elmore; David J. Stensrud; Kenneth C. Crawford
Globalization and standards : the liberalization of trade and the potential for a regulatory race to the top
Globalization is changing the way in which the world is organized. The world trade regime is increasingly the dominant mode of organizing international relations. Within this context of globalization and liberalization of ...
Cameron, Diane (Melissa Jessica Diane)
September 2000Forecasting Future Variance from Option Prices
Although it is widely believed that option prices provide the best possible forecasts of the future variance of the assets which underlie them, a large body of empirical evidence concludes that option prices consistently yield biased forecasts of future variance. The prevailing interpretation of these findings is that option investors may be forming unbiased forecasts of the future variance of underlying assets but that these unbiased forecasts fail to get impounded into option prices because of either (1) the difficulty of carrying out the necessary arbitrage strategies that would force the prices to their proper levels, or (2) the availability to market makers of lucrative alternative strategies in which they simply profit from the large bid-ask spreads in the options markets. This interpretation has significant consequences for nearly the entire range of option pricing research, since it implies that non-continuous trading, bid-ask spreads, and other market imperfections substantially influence option prices. This implication is important, both because incorporating these types of market imperfections into option pricing models is much more difficult than, for example, altering the dynamics of the underlying asset and also because it suggests that researchers cannot learn about option investor expectations by filtering option
Allen M. Poteshman; Mark R. Manfredo; Allen M. Poteshman; Allen M. Poteshman; Champaign Helpful; Jegadeesh Narasimhan
World nuclear outlook 1995
As part of the EIA program to provide energy information, this analysis report presents the current status and projections through 2015 of nuclear capacity, generation, and fuel cycle requirements for all countries in the world using nuclear power to generate electricity for commercial use. It also contains information and forecasts of developments in the uranium market. Long-term projections of US nuclear capacity, generation, and spent fuel discharges for two different scenarios through 2040 are developed for the Department of Energy`s Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM). In turn, the OCRWM provides partial funding for preparation of this report. The projections of uranium requirements are provided to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) for preparation of the Nuclear Energy Agency/OECD report, Summary of Nuclear Power and Fuel Cycle Data in OECD Member Countries.
World nuclear outlook 1994
As part of the EIA program to provide energy information, this analysis report presents the current status and projections through 2010 of nuclear capacity, generation, and fuel cycle requirements for all countries in the world using nuclear power to generate electricity for commercial use. It also contains information and forecasts of developments in the uranium market. Long-term projections of US nuclear capacity, generation, and spent fuel discharges for three different scenarios through 2040 are developed for the Department of Energy`s Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM). In turn, the OCRWM provides partial funding for preparation of this report. The projections of uranium requirements are provided to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) for preparation of the Nuclear Energy Agency/OECD report, Summary of Nuclear Power and Fuel Cycle Data in OECD Member Countries.
The evolution of consensus in macroeconomic forecasting
When professional forecasters repeatedly forecast macroeconomic variables, their forecasts may converge over time towards a consensus. The evolution of consensus is analyzed with Blue Chip data under a parametric polynomial decay function that permits flexibility in the decay path. For the most part, this specification fits the data. We test whether forecast differences decay to zero at the same point in time for a panel of forecasters, and discuss possible explanations for this, along with its implications for studies using panels of forecasters.
Allan W. Gregory; James Yetman; Jel Codes C E; Robert Eggert; Fred Joutz
Background pollution forecast over bulgaria
Both, the current level of air pollution studies and social needs in the country, are in a stage mature enough for creating Bulgarian Chemical Weather Forecasting and Information System The system is foreseen to provide in real time forecast of the spatial/temporal ...
D. Syrakov; K. Ganev; M. Prodanova; N. Miloshev; G. Jordanov; E. Katragkou; D. Melas; A. Poupkou; K. Markakis
Frequency Dependence in Forecast Skill
A method is proposed to calculate measures of forecast skill for high, medium and low temporal frequency variations in the atmosphere. This method is applied to a series of 128 consecutive 1 to 10-day forecasts produced at NMC with their ...
H. M. van Den Dool; Suranjana Saha
Electricity price forecasting in a grid environment.
??Accurate electricity price forecasting is critical to market participants in wholesale electricity markets. Market participants rely on price forecasts to decide their bidding strategies, allocate� (more)
Li, Guang, 1974-
Improving Forecasting: A plea for historical retrospectives
Improving Forecasting: A plea for historical retrospectives Title Improving Forecasting: A plea for historical retrospectives Publication Type Journal Article Year of Publication...
World Petroleum Supply/Demand Forecast - U.S. Energy ...
With the major problem being price, what does EIA expect for the rest of this year? After two relatively mild winters with growing crude oil supplies and the Asian ...
Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation by Susan H. Holte In this paper, the Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting (OIAF) of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) evaluates the projections published in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO), (1) by comparing the projections from the Annual Energy Outlook 1982 through the Annual Energy Outlook 2001 with actual historical values. A set of major consumption, production, net import, price, economic, and carbon dioxide emissions variables are included in the evaluation, updating similar papers from previous years. These evaluations also present the reasons and rationales for significant differences. The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has been providing an
Title of Paper Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Title of Paper Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation by Susan H. Holte OIAF has been providing an evaluation of the forecasts in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) annually since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on that of the prior year by adding the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. However, the underlying reasons for deviations between the projections and realized history tend to be the same from one evaluation to the next. The most significant conclusions are: Natural gas has generally been the fuel with the least accurate forecasts of consumption, production, and prices. Natural gas was the last fossil fuel to be deregulated following the strong regulation of energy markets in the 1970s and early 1980s. Even after deregulation, the behavior
Trade Secrets.PDF
Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site
7 7 I N S P E C T I O N R E P O R T U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF INSPECTOR GENERAL OFFICE OF INSPECTIONS INSPECTION OF THE LICENSING OF TRADE SECRETS BY SANDIA NATIONAL LABORATORIES MARCH 2002 U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY Washington, DC 20585 March 22, 2002 MEMORANDUM FOR THE SECRETARY FROM: Gregory H. Friedman /s/ Inspector General SUBJECT: INFORMATION: Inspection Report on "Licensing of Trade Secrets by Sandia National Laboratories" BACKGROUND The Office of Inspector General (OIG), U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), initiated an inspection into the facts and circumstances surrounding the issuance of a trade secret license in June 2000 by Sandia National Laboratories (Sandia) at Livermore, California, to Axsun Technologies (Axsun), a
International Electricity Trade - Open Access | Department of...
International Electricity Trade - Open Access International Electricity Trade - Open Access DOE has consistently expressed its policy that international electricity trade should be...
Improved Seasonal Climate Forecasts of the South Asian Summer Monsoon Using a Suite of 13 Coupled Ocean�Atmosphere Models
Several modeling studies have shown that the south Asian monsoon region has the lowest skill for seasonal forecasts compared with many other domains of the world. This paper demonstrates that a multimodel synthetic superensemble approach, when ...
Arindam Chakraborty; T. N. Krishnamurti
Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix D: Wholesale Electricity Price Forecast
Forecast Introduction................................................................... 16 The Base Case Forecast..................................................................... 16 Base Case Price Forecast
Quantitative Precipitation Forecast Techniques for Use in Hydrologic Forecasting
Quantitative hydrologic forecasting usually requires knowledge of the spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation. First, it is important to accurately measure the precipitation falling over a particular watershed of interest. Second, ...
Konstantine P. Georgakakos; Michael D. Hudlow
Crude oil and alternate energy production forecasts for the twenty-first century: The end of the hydrocarbon era
Predictions of production rates and ultimate recovery of crude oil are needed for intelligent planning and timely action to ensure the continuous flow of energy required by the world`s increasing population and expanding economies. Crude oil will be able to supply increasing demand until peak world production is reached. The energy gap caused by declining conventional oil production must then be filled by expanding production of coal, heavy oil and oil shales, nuclear and hydroelectric power, and renewable energy sources (solar, wind, and geothermal). Declining oil production forecasts are based on current estimated ultimate recoverable conventional crude oil resources of 329 billion barrels for the United States and close to 3 trillion barrels for the world. Peak world crude oil production is forecast to occur in 2020 at 90 million barrels per day. Conventional crude oil production in the United States is forecast to terminate by about 2090, and world production will be close to exhaustion by 2100.
Edwards, J.D. [Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States)
Load Forecast For use in Resource Adequacy
Load Forecast 2019 For use in Resource Adequacy Massoud Jourabchi #12;In today's presentation d l Load forecast methodology Drivers of the forecast f i Treatment of conservation Incorporating impact of weather Forecast for 2019 #12;Regional Loads (MWA and MW)Regional Loads (MWA and MW
Forecast Technical Document Felling and Removals
Forecast Technical Document Felling and Removals Forecasts A document describing how volume fellings and removals are handled in the 2011 Production Forecast system. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley Halsall #12;PF2011 Felling and removals forecasts Background A fellings and removals
CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST Volume 1: Statewide Electricity forecast is the combined product of the hard work and expertise of numerous staff members in the Demand the commercial sector forecast. Mehrzad Soltani Nia helped prepare the industrial forecast. Miguel Garcia
Combining forecast weights: Why and how?
This paper proposes a procedure called forecast weight averaging which is a specific combination of forecast weights obtained from different methods of constructing forecast weights for the purpose of improving the accuracy of pseudo out of sample forecasting. It is found that under certain specified conditions
Yip Chee Yin; Ng Kok-Haur; Lim Hock-Eam
PROBLEMS OF FORECAST1 Dmitry KUCHARAVY
1 PROBLEMS OF FORECAST1 Dmitry KUCHARAVY firstname.lastname@example.com Roland DE GUIO roland for the purpose of Innovative Design. First, a brief analysis of problems for existing forecasting methods of the forecast errors. Second, using a contradiction analysis, a set of problems related to technology forecast
Using reforecasts for probabilistic forecast calibration
1 Using reforecasts for probabilistic forecast calibration Tom Hamill NOAA Earth System Research that is currently operational. #12;3 Why compute reforecasts? · For many forecast problems, such as long-lead forecasts or high-precipitation events, a few past forecasts may be insufficient for calibrating
Assessing Forecast Accuracy Measures Department of Economics
Assessing Forecast Accuracy Measures Zhuo Chen Department of Economics Heady Hall 260 Iowa State forecast accuracy measures. In the theoretical direction, for comparing two forecasters, only when the errors are stochastically ordered, the ranking of the forecasts is basically independent of the form
Current status of ForecastCurrent status of Forecast 2005 EPACT is in the model
1 1 Current status of ForecastCurrent status of Forecast 2005 EPACT is in the model 2007 Federal prices are being inputted into the model 2 Sales forecast Select yearsSales forecast Select years --Draft 0.53% Irrigation 2.76% Annual Growth Rates Preliminary Electricity ForecastAnnual Growth Rates
Can earnings forecasts be improved by taking into account the forecast bias?
Can earnings forecasts be improved by taking into account the forecast bias? François DOSSOU allow the calculation of earnings adjusted forecasts, for horizons from 1 to 24 months. We explain variables. From the forecast evaluation statistics viewpoints, the adjusted forecasts make it possible quasi
World Carbon Emissions: IEO2000 vs. IEO99
0 0 Notes: If world energy consumption rises to the levels projected in the IEO2000 reference case, carbon emissions would grow to 8.1 billion metric tons in 2010 (or 40 percent above the 1990 level) and 10.0 billion metric tons by 2020 (72 percent above the 1990 level). This year's forecasts are 129 million metric tons higher in 2010 relative to last year's forecast; and 192 million metric tons higher by 2020. The higher forecast for world carbon emissions can be attributed, in large part, to changes in the forecast for the FSU. Changes in the historical and projected carbon emissions for the FSU explain almost half of the increase between this year's IEO2000 and last year's report in 2010; and two-thirds of the difference in 2020. Historical data revisions
Essays on trade, CO?, and the environment
The first chapter of this thesis uses a general equilibrium model of trade and the environment to investigate two questions. First, how do the gains from trade compare against the environmental costs of trade? Trade can ...
Shapiro, Joseph S
Forecast Energy | Open Energy Information
Forecast Energy Forecast Energy Jump to: navigation, search Name Forecast Energy Address 2320 Marinship Way, Suite 300 Place Sausalito, California Zip 94965 Sector Services Product Intelligent Monitoring and Forecasting Services Year founded 2010 Number of employees 11-50 Company Type For profit Website http://www.forecastenergy.net Coordinates 37.865647°, -122.496315° Loading map... {"minzoom":false,"mappingservice":"googlemaps3","type":"ROADMAP","zoom":14,"types":["ROADMAP","SATELLITE","HYBRID","TERRAIN"],"geoservice":"google","maxzoom":false,"width":"600px","height":"350px","centre":false,"title":"","label":"","icon":"","visitedicon":"","lines":[],"polygons":[],"circles":[],"rectangles":[],"copycoords":false,"static":false,"wmsoverlay":"","layers":[],"controls":["pan","zoom","type","scale","streetview"],"zoomstyle":"DEFAULT","typestyle":"DEFAULT","autoinfowindows":false,"kml":[],"gkml":[],"fusiontables":[],"resizable":false,"tilt":0,"kmlrezoom":false,"poi":true,"imageoverlays":[],"markercluster":false,"searchmarkers":"","locations":[{"text":"","title":"","link":null,"lat":37.865647,"lon":-122.496315,"alt":0,"address":"","icon":"","group":"","inlineLabel":"","visitedicon":""}]}
Value of Wind Power Forecasting
This study, building on the extensive models developed for the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study (WWSIS), uses these WECC models to evaluate the operating cost impacts of improved day-ahead wind forecasts.
Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Jordan, G.; Piwko, R.
Fuzzy forecasting with DNA computing
There are many forecasting techniques including: exponential smoothing, ARIMA model, GARCH model, neural networks and genetic algorithm, etc. Since financial time series may be influenced by many factors, conventional model based techniques and hard ...
Don Jyh-Fu Jeng; Junzo Watada; Berlin Wu; Jui-Yu Wu
Sampling Errors in Seasonal Forecasting
The limited numbers of start dates and ensemble sizes in seasonal forecasts lead to sampling errors in predictions. Defining the magnitude of these sampling errors would be useful for end users as well as informing decisions on resource ...
Stephen Cusack; Alberto Arribas
Scoring Rules for Forecast Verification
The problem of probabilistic forecast verification is approached from a theoretical point of view starting from three basic desiderata: additivity, exclusive dependence on physical observations (�locality�), and strictly proper behavior. By ...
Riccardo Benedetti
Wavelets and Field Forecast Verification
Current field forecast verification measures are inadequate, primarily because they compress the comparison between two complex spatial field processes into one number. Discrete wavelet transforms (DWTs) applied to analysis and contemporaneous ...
William M. Briggs; Richard A. Levine
Richardson's Barotropic Forecast: A Reappraisal
To elucidate his numerical technique and to examine the effectiveness of geostrophic initial winds, Lewis Fry Richardson carried out an idealized forecast using the linear shallow-water equations and simple analytical pressure and velocity ...
Peter Lynch
Downscaling Extended Weather Forecasts for Hydrologic Prediction
Weather and climate forecasts are critical inputs to hydrologic forecasting systems. The National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) issues 8-15 days outlook daily for the U.S. based on the Medium Range Forecast (MRF) model, which is a global model applied at about 2? spatial resolution. Because of the relatively coarse spatial resolution, weather forecasts produced by the MRF model cannot be applied directly to hydrologic forecasting models that require high spatial resolution to represent land surface hydrology. A mesoscale atmospheric model was used to dynamically downscale the 1-8 day extended global weather forecasts to test the feasibility of hydrologic forecasting through this model nesting approach. Atmospheric conditions of each 8-day forecast during the period 1990-2000 were used to provide initial and boundary conditions for the mesoscale model to produce an 8-day atmospheric forecast for the western U.S. at 30 km spatial resolution. To examine the impact of initialization of the land surface state on forecast skill, two sets of simulations were performed with the land surface state initialized based on the global forecasts versus land surface conditions from a continuous mesoscale simulation driven by the NCEP reanalysis. Comparison of the skill of the global and downscaled precipitation forecasts in the western U.S. showed higher skill for the downscaled forecasts at all precipitation thresholds and increasingly larger differences at the larger thresholds. Analyses of the surface temperature forecasts show that the mesoscale forecasts generally reduced the root-mean-square error by about 1.5 C compared to the global forecasts, because of the much better resolved topography at 30 km spatial resolution. In addition, initialization of the land surface states has large impacts on the temperature forecasts, but not the precipitation forecasts. The improvements in forecast skill using downscaling could be potentially significant for improving hydrologic forecasts for managing river basins.
Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Qian, Yun
National Geothermal Association Trade Mission to Central America
The United States (US) geothermal industry, the world`s most technically proficient, has been unable to achieve penetration into the markets of the developing nations. This report details the findings of an industry Trade Mission to Central America, tasked with determining the reasons for this shortfall and with developing a US industry geothermal export strategy designed to achieve immediate and long-term export benefits.
. 11, 2001, World Trade Center terrorist attack. Heather Ho, a former Hawai`i resident, was pastry chef, sprang into action, helping handle the tag lines as a deep-sea water sampling system was Students find
The European carbon market in action : the first trading period, Interim report
The European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) is the largest greenhouse gas market ever established. The European Union is leading the world's first effort to mobilize market forces to tackle climate change. A precise ...
Convery, Frank J.
The European Carbon Market in Action: Lessons from the First Trading Period Interim Report
Convery, Frank
North America: Regulation of International Electricity Trade...
North America: Regulation of International Electricity Trade North America: Regulation of International Electricity Trade North America: Regulation of International Electricity...
Light truck forecasts
The recent dramatic increase in the number of light trucks (109% between 1963 and 1974) has prompted concern about the energy consequences of the growing popularity of the light truck. An estimate of the future number of light trucks is considered to be a reasonable first step in assessing the energy impact of these vehicles. The monograph contains forecasts based on two models and six scenarios. The coefficients for the models have been derived by ordinary least squares regression of national level time series data. The first model is a two stage model. The first stage estimates the number of light trucks and cars (together), and the second stage applies a share's submodel to determine the number of light trucks. The second model is a simultaneous equation model. The two models track one another remarkably well, within about 2%. The scenarios were chosen to be consistent with those used in the Lindsey-Kaufman study Projection of Light Truck Population to Year 2025. Except in the case of the most dismal economic scenario, the number of light trucks is expected to increase from the 1974 level of 0.09 light truck per person to about 0.12 light truck per person in 1995.
Liepins, G.E.
NIST World Trade Center Investigation Team Calls for ...
... The standards for estimating the load effects of ... prototype structures and estimating wind loads for tall ... spaces and higher threat profiles of particular ...
Smoke Control and Occupant Evacuation at the World Trade ...
... Averill is a fIre protection engineer at the ... with redundant power sources from different substations. ... based on the results of engineering analysis and ...
Commerce's NIST Updates Progress of World Trade Center ...
... to better define the events of Sept. ... conducted�concurrently with the investigation�11 research and ... The NIST investigations will establish the likely ...
Initial Model for Fires in the World Trade Center Towers
... and T? and ?? are the ambient, ground-level temperature ... with the simulated flames in plot at the left. ... from In Situ Burning of Crude Oil in Alaska ...
Convoy Returns World Trade Center Steel to New York City
... The tractor trailers, each carrying between 10,000 and 30,000 pounds (approximately 4,500 to 13,600 kilograms) of steel, traveled with a police ...
About the NIST World Trade Center Disaster Investigation
... in the towers, and the response of the WTC towers to the design gravity and wind loads. Simulations of the behavior of each tower on September 11 ...
NIST's Findings On The World Trade Center Fire and Collapse
... Structural Damage Gas Temperature Time-Histories (FSI) ANSYS ... 10:21 am First reports that top of tower might be leaning, then confirms that it is ...
State University of New York, Albany, NY 12201 c FissionCenter, New York State Department of Health, Albany, NYNew York State Department of Health, Empire State Plaza, Albany,
NIST Status Update on World Trade Center 7 Investigation
... While NIST has found no evidence of a blast or controlled demolition event, NIST would like to determine the magnitude of hypothetical blast ...
News and Update: Remote-controlled Robots Search World Trade ...
One team of robots was the work of the Center for Robot-Assisted Search and Rescue (CRASAR), out of the University of South Florida. As many as 17 CRASAR�...
Latest Findings from NIST World Trade Center Investigation ...
... the load redistribution paths and damage scenarios resulting from ... aircraft impact based on analysis of post ... roles in the collapse scenario played by ...
Why Did the World Trade Center Collapse? Science, Engineering ...
For example, emergency communication systems need to be upgraded to speed up the notice for evacuation and the safest paths of egress. Emergency�...
International Trade of Biofuels (Brochure)
In recent years, the production and trade of biofuels has increased to meet global demand for renewable fuels. Ethanol and biodiesel contribute much of this trade because they are the most established biofuels. Their growth has been aided through a variety of policies, especially in the European Union, Brazil, and the United States, but ethanol trade and production have faced more targeted policies and tariffs than biodiesel. This fact sheet contains a summary of the trade of biofuels among nations, including historical data on production, consumption, and trade.
Oil Markets Oil Markets IEO2005 projects that world crude oil prices in real 2003 dollars will decline from their current level by 2010, then rise gradually through 2025. In the International Energy Outlook 2005 (IEO2005) reference case, world demand for crude oil grows from 78 million barrels per day in 2002 to 103 million barrels per day in 2015 and to just over 119 million barrels per day in 2025. Much of the growth in oil consumption is projected for the emerging Asian nations, where strong economic growth results in a robust increase in oil demand. Emerging Asia (including China and India) accounts for 45 percent of the total world increase in oil use over the forecast period in the IEO2005 reference case. The projected increase in world oil demand would require an increment to world production capability of more than 42 million barrels per day relative to the 2002 crude oil production capacity of 80.0 million barrels per day. Producers in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) are expected to be the major source of production increases. In addition, non-OPEC supply is expected to remain highly competitive, with major increments to supply coming from offshore resources, especially in the Caspian Basin, Latin America, and deepwater West Africa. The estimates of incremental production are based on current proved reserves and a country-by-country assessment of ultimately recoverable petroleum. In the IEO2005 oil price cases, the substantial investment capital required to produce the incremental volumes is assumed to exist, and the investors are expected to receive at least a 10-percent return on investment.
The United States (US) geothermal industry, the world's most technically proficient, has been unable to achieve penetration into the markets of the developing nations. This report details the findings of an industry Trade Mission to Central America, tasked with determining the reasons for this shortfall and with developing a US industry geothermal export strategy designed to achieve immediate and long-term export benefits.
The Potential Impact of Using Persistence as a Reference Forecast on Perceived Forecast Skill
Skill is defined as actual forecast performance relative to the performance of a reference forecast. It is shown that the choice of reference (e.g., random or persistence) can affect the perceived performance of the forecast system. Two scores, ...
Marion P. Mittermaier
Evaluation of Wave Forecasts Consistent with Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Wind Forecasts
An algorithm to generate wave fields consistent with forecasts from the official U.S. tropical cyclone forecast centers has been made available in near�real time to forecasters since summer 2007. The algorithm removes the tropical cyclone from ...
Charles R. Sampson; Paul A. Wittmann; Efren A. Serra; Hendrik L. Tolman; Jessica Schauer; Timothy Marchok
Weather forecasting : the next generation : the potential use and implementation of ensemble forecasting
This thesis discusses ensemble forecasting, a promising new weather forecasting technique, from various viewpoints relating not only to its meteorological aspects but also to its user and policy aspects. Ensemble forecasting ...
Goto, Susumu
Quantification of Uncertainity in Fire-Weather Forecasts: Some Results of Operational and Experimental Forecasting Programs
Fire-weather forecasts (FWFs) prepared by National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters on an operational basis are traditionally expressed in categorical terms. However, to make rational and optimal use of such forecasts, fire managers need ...
Barbara G. Brown; Allan H. Murphy
Ability to Forecast Regional Soil Moisture with a Distributed Hydrological Model Using ECMWF Rainfall Forecasts
This study mimics an online forecast system to provide nine day-ahead forecasts of regional soil moisture. It uses modified ensemble rainfall forecasts from the numerical weather prediction model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ...
J. M. Schuurmans; M. F. P. Bierkens
Spatial Structure, Forecast Errors, and Predictability of the South Asian Monsoon in CFS Monthly Retrospective Forecasts
The spatial structure of the boreal summer South Asian monsoon in the ensemble mean of monthly retrospective forecasts by the Climate Forecast System of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction is examined. The forecast errors and ...
Hae-Kyung Lee Drbohlav; V. Krishnamurthy
What Is a Good Forecast? An Essay on the Nature of Goodness in Weather Forecasting
Differences of opinion exist among forecasters�and between forecasters and users�regarding the meaning of the phrase �good (bad) weather forecasts.� These differences of opinion are fueled by a lack of clarity and/or understanding concerning the ...
Allan H. Murphy
Contacts Contacts The International Energy Outlook is prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). General questions concerning the contents of the report should be referred to John J. Conti (email@example.com, 202-586-2222), Director, Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. Specific questions about the report should be referred to Linda E. Doman (202/586-1041) or the following analysts: World Energy and Economic Outlook Linda Doman (email@example.com, 202-586-1041) Macroeconomic Assumptions Nasir Khilji (email@example.com, 202-586-1294) Energy Consumption by End-Use Sector Residential Energy Use John Cymbalsky (firstname.lastname@example.com, 202-586-4815) Commercial Energy Use Erin Boedecker (email@example.com, 202-586-4791)
Energy Consumption by End-Use Sector Energy Consumption by End-Use Sector In the IEO2005 projections, end-use energy consumption in the residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation sectors varies widely among regions and from country to country. One way of looking at the future of world energy markets is to consider trends in energy consumption at the end-use sector level. With the exception of the transportation sector, which is almost universally dominated by petroleum products at present, the mix of energy use in the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors can vary widely from country to country, depending on a combination of regional factors, such as the availability of energy resources, the level of economic development, and political, social, and demographic factors. This chapter outlines the International Energy Outlook 2005 (IEO2005) forecast for regional energy consumption by end-use sector.
Natural Gas Natural Gas Natural gas is the fastest growing primary energy source in the IEO2005 forecast. Consumption of natural gas is projected to increase by nearly 70 percent between 2002 and 2025, with the most robust growth in demand expected among the emerging economies. Figure 34. World Natural Gas Consumption, 1980-2025 (Trillion Cubic Feet). Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center on 202-586-8800. Figure Data Figure 35. Natural Gas Consumption by Region, 1980-2025 (Trillion Cubic Feet). Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Figure Data Figure 36. Increase in Natural Gas Consumption by Region and Country, 2002-2025. Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Figure Data
Base Resource Forecasts - Power Marketing - Sierra Nevada Region...
Marketing > Base Resource Forecasts Base Resource Forecasts Note: Annual, rolling (monthly for 12 months), base resource forecasts are posted when they become available. Annual...
Forecasting new product penetration with flexible substitution patterns
choice model for forecasting demand for alternative-fuel7511, Urban Travel Demand Forecasting Project, Institute of89 (1999) 109�129 Forecasting new product penetration with ?
Brownstone, David; Train, Kenneth
Overestimation Reduction in Forecasting Telecommuting as a TDM Policy
M. , Ethics and advocacy in forecasting for public policy.change and social forecasting: the case of telecommuting asOverestimation Reduction in Forecasting Telecommuting as a
Tal, Gil
Forecasting US CO2 Emissions Using State-Level Data
F. Hendry (eds), Economic Forecasting, Blackwell Publishing,W. : 2002, Macroeconomic forecasting using di?usion indexes,2003, Macroeconomic forecasting in the euro area: Country
Steinhauser, Ralf; Auffhammer, Maximilian
NoVaS Transformations: Flexible Inference for Volatility Forecasting
and Correlation Forecasting� in G. Elliott, C.W.J.Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Amsterdam: North-Holland,Transformations�, forthcoming in Forecasting in the Presence
Politis, Dimitris N; Thomakos, Dimitrios D
7511, Urban Travel Demand Forecasting Project, Institute ofchoice model for forecasting demand for alternative-fuel89 (1999) 109�129 Forecasting new product penetration with
Earthquake Forecasting in Diverse Tectonic Zones of the Globe
Long-term probabilistic forecasting of earthquakes, J.2000), Probabilistic forecasting of earthquakes, Geophys. J.F.F. (2006), The EEPAS forecasting model and the probability
Kagan, Y. Y.; Jackson, D. D.
Ensemble-based methods for forecasting census in hospital units
P, Fitzgerald G: Regression forecasting of patient admissionapproach to modeling and forecasting demand in the emergencySJ, Haug PJ, Snow GL: Forecasting daily patient volumes in
Koestler, Devin C; Ombao, Hernando; Bender, Jesse
Forecasting Danerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications of Ensemble Statistical Procedures
costs could alter forecasting skill and the predictors thatForecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications ofOn-Line Working Paper Series Forecasting Dangerous Inmate
Berk, Richard A.; Kriegler, Brian; Baek, John-Ho
Developing a Practical Forecasting Screener for Domestic Violence Incidents
Developing a Practical Forecasting Screener for Domesticcomplicated did not improve forecasting skill. Taking thethe local costs of forecasting errors. It is also feasible
Richard A. Berk; Susan B. Sorenson; Yan He
Forecasting with Dynamic Microsimulation: Design, Implementation, and Demonstration
Goulias Page 84 Forecasting with Dynamic Microsimulation:Goulias Page 80 Forecasting with Dynamic Microsimulation:L. Demographic Forecasting with a Dynamic Stochastic
Ravulaparthy, Srinath; Goulias, Konstadinos G.
Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation-Table 1
Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (EIA)
Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation > Table 1 Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Table 1. Comparison of Absolute Percent Errors for AEO Forecast Evaluation, 1996 to...
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION FINAL DEMAND FORECAST FORMS AND INSTRUCTIONS FOR THE 2007 INTEGRATED Table of Contents General Instructions for Demand Forecast Submittals.............................................................................. 4 Protocols for Submitted Demand Forecasts
The World Energy Projection System April 2001
The World Energy Projection System April 2001 The World Energy Projection System April 2001 Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Updates April 20, 2001 (Next Release: April, 2002) Related Links To Forecasting Home Page EIA Homepage Printer Friendly Version Continuing with this release, annual updates to the model will be available. Check this space for scheduled future releases. Note: If you are familiar with the model and just wish to download the latest version, click HERE. The World Energy Projection System The projections of world energy consumption published annually by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) in the International Energy Outlook (IEO) are derived from the World Energy Projection System (WEPS). WEPS is an integrated set of personal computer-based spreadsheets containing data compilations, assumption specifications, descriptive analysis procedures,
Solar Energy Market Forecast | Open Energy Information
Solar Energy Market Forecast Solar Energy Market Forecast Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Solar Energy Market Forecast Agency/Company /Organization: United States Department of Energy Sector: Energy Focus Area: Solar Topics: Market analysis, Technology characterizations Resource Type: Publications Website: giffords.house.gov/DOE%20Perspective%20on%20Solar%20Market%20Evolution References: Solar Energy Market Forecast[1] Summary " Energy markets / forecasts DOE Solar America Initiative overview Capital market investments in solar Solar photovoltaic (PV) sector overview PV prices and costs PV market evolution Market evolution considerations Balance of system costs Silicon 'normalization' Solar system value drivers Solar market forecast Additional resources"
Export.gov - Trade Events Index Page
Events Events Print | E-mail Page Trade Events Trade Events Home Trade Missions Agriculture Trade Events Textiles and Apparel Trade Events Export Finance Seminars Licensing Seminars Related Topics Basics: Locating Buyers Private Trade Shows Trade Events U.S. Government agencies organize and support a broad range of events for U.S. businesses interested in selling their products and services overseas. Trade events include webinars and seminars on the fundamentals of exporting; counseling and other support at U.S. and international trade shows, recruitment of foreign buyer delegations to U.S. trade shows, and trade missions of U.S. delegates to foreign markets for one-on-one meetings with potential customers and partners. Search Export.gov Trade Events This searchable list includes official trade missions and trade events
by by Esmeralda Sanchez The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has been providing an evaluation of the forecasts in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) annually since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on that of the prior year by adding the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. However, the underlying reasons for deviations between the projections and realized history tend to be the same from one evaluation to the next. The most significant conclusions are: * Over the last two decades, there have been many significant changes in laws, policies, and regulations that could not have been anticipated and were not assumed in the projections prior to their implementation. Many of these actions have had significant impacts on energy supply, demand, and prices; however, the
electricity trade | OpenEI
trade trade Dataset Summary Description This dataset comes from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and is part of the 2011 Annual Energy Outlook Report (AEO2011). This dataset is table 10, and contains only the reference case. The dataset uses billion kilowatthours. The data is broken down into Interregional Electricity trade, gross domestic sales, international electricity trade, imports and exports to Canada and Mexico. Source EIA Date Released April 26th, 2011 (3 years ago) Date Updated Unknown Keywords 2011 AEO EIA electricity trade Data application/vnd.ms-excel icon AEO2011: Electricity Trade- Reference Case (xls, 34.4 KiB) Quality Metrics Level of Review Peer Reviewed Comment Temporal and Spatial Coverage Frequency Annually Time Period 2008-2035
A Review of Numerical Forecast Guidance for Hurricane Hugo
Numerical forecast guidance for Hurricane Hugo from the National Meteorological Center is examined, as well as forecasts from the European Center for Medium Range Forecasting and the United Kingdom Meteorological Office. No one forecast product ...
John H. Ward
Short-Range Ensemble Forecasts of Precipitation Type
Short-range ensemble forecasting is extended to a critical winter weather problem: forecasting precipitation type. Forecast soundings from the operational NCEP Short-Range Ensemble Forecast system are combined with five precipitation-type ...
Matthew S. Wandishin; Michael E. Baldwin; Steven L. Mullen; John V. Cortinas Jr.
Summary Verification Measures and Their Interpretation for Ensemble Forecasts
Ensemble prediction systems produce forecasts that represent the probability distribution of a continuous forecast variable. Most often, the verification problem is simplified by transforming the ensemble forecast into probability forecasts for ...
A. Allen Bradley; Stuart S. Schwartz
Using Customers' Reported Forecasts to Predict Future Sales
Using Customers' Reported Forecasts to Predict Future Sales Nihat Altintas , Alan Montgomery orders using forecasts provided by their customers. Our goal is to improve the supplier's operations through a better un- derstanding of the customers's forecast behavior. Unfortunately, customer forecasts
Murphy, Robert F.
Event:11th Annual Workshop on Greenhouse Gas Emission Trading | Open Energy
1th Annual Workshop on Greenhouse Gas Emission Trading 1th Annual Workshop on Greenhouse Gas Emission Trading Jump to: navigation, search Calendar.png 11th Annual Workshop on Greenhouse Gas Emission Trading: on 2011/10/03 "The IEA-IETA-EPRI Emissions Trading Workshop has been held annually at the headquarters of the International Energy Agency since 2000. This international workshop focuses on developments in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions trading around the world at the international, national and sub-national level. The 2011 workshop will cover topics relevant to the development of global, national and sub-national carbon markets, including scaled-up and new market mechanisms, NAMAs and sectoral crediting policies, MRV and international GHG accounting and 2nd-best trading programmes. As in previous years, the workshop will assemble representatives from government,
Event:11th Annual Workshop on Greenhouse Gas Emission Trading Day 2 | Open
th Annual Workshop on Greenhouse Gas Emission Trading Day 2 th Annual Workshop on Greenhouse Gas Emission Trading Day 2 Jump to: navigation, search Calendar.png 11th Annual Workshop on Greenhouse Gas Emission Trading: on 2011/10/04 "The IEA-IETA-EPRI Emissions Trading Workshop has been held annually at the headquarters of the International Energy Agency since 2000. This international workshop focuses on developments in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions trading around the world at the international, national and sub-national level. The 2011 workshop will cover topics relevant to the development of global, national and sub-national carbon markets, including scaled-up and new market mechanisms, NAMAs and sectoral crediting policies, MRV and international GHG accounting and 2nd-best trading programmes. As in previous years, the workshop will assemble representatives from government,
Emissions trading and technological change.
??Emissions trading programmes have grown in number and scope over the last forty years, and in the last decade they have become a centrepiece of� (more)
Calel, Raphael
Trade, Interdependence and Exchange Rates
period is 1971-2000. All inflation rates and predictions areof Goods and Real Exchange Rate Fluc- tuations,� mimeo [5]Between Trade and Exchange Rate Volatility,� mimeo [6
Fitzgerald, Doireann
The Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting System (ATCF)
The U.S. Navy Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting System (ATCF) is an IBM-AT compatible software package developed for the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), Guam. ATCF is designed to assist forecasters with the process of making tropical ...
Ronald J. Miller; Ann J. Schrader; Charles R. Sampson; Ted L. Tsui
Evaluation of LFM-2 Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts
The results of a near real time experiment designed to assess the state of the art of quantitative precipitation forecasting skill of the operational NMC LFM-2 are described. All available LFM-2 quantitative precipitation forecasts were verified ...
Forecaster Workstation Design: Concepts and Issues
Some basic ideas about designing a meteorological workstation for operational weather forecasting are presented, in part as a complement to the recently published discussion of workstation design by R. R. Hoffman. Scientific weather forecasting ...
Charles A. Doswell III
Performance of Recent Multimodel ENSO Forecasts
The performance of the International Research Institute for Climate and Society �ENSO forecast plume� during the 2002�11 period is evaluated using deterministic and probabilistic verification measures. The plume includes multiple model forecasts ...
Michael K. Tippett; Anthony G. Barnston; Shuhua Li
Local Forecast Communication In The Altiplano
Forecasts play an important role in planting decisions for Andean peasant producers. Predictions of the upcoming cropping season determine when, where, and what farmers will plant. This research looks at the sources of forecast information used ...
Jere L. Gilles; Corinne Valdivia
Bayesian Model Verification of NWP Ensemble Forecasts
Forecasts of convective precipitation have large uncertainties. To consider the forecast uncertainties of convection-permitting models, a convection-permitting ensemble prediction system (EPS) based on the Consortium for Small-scale Modeling (...
Andreas R�pnack; Andreas Hense; Christoph Gebhardt; Detlev Majewski
Economic and Statistical Measures of Forecast Accuracy
This paper argues in favour of a closer link between decision and forecast evaluation problems. Although the idea of using decision theory for forecast evaluation appears early in the dynamic stochastic programming literature, and has continued...
Granger, Clive W J; Pesaran, M Hashem
2013 Midyear Economic Forecast Sponsorship Opportunity
2013 Midyear Economic Forecast Sponsorship Opportunity Thursday, April 18, 2013, Hyatt Regency Irvine 11:30 a.m. 1:30 p.m. Dr. Anil Puri presents his annual Midyear Economic Forecast addressing
de Lijser, Peter
Forecasting consumer products using prediction markets
Prediction Markets hold the promise of improving the forecasting process. Research has shown that Prediction Markets can develop more accurate forecasts than polls or experts. Our research concentrated on analyzing Prediction ...
Trepte, Kai
Probabilistic Visibility Forecasting Using Bayesian Model Averaging
Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is a statistical postprocessing technique that has been used in probabilistic weather forecasting to calibrate forecast ensembles and generate predictive probability density functions (PDFs) for weather quantities. ...
Richard M. Chmielecki; Adrian E. Raftery
Intercomparison of Spatial Forecast Verification Methods
Advancements in weather forecast models and their enhanced resolution have led to substantially improved and more realistic-appearing forecasts for some variables. However, traditional verification scores often indicate poor performance because ...
Eric Gilleland; David Ahijevych; Barbara G. Brown; Barbara Casati; Elizabeth E. Ebert
Forecasting with Reference to a Specific Climatology
Seasonal forecasts are most commonly issued as anomalies with respect to some multiyear reference period. However, different seasonal forecasting centers use different reference periods. This paper shows that for near-surface temperature, ...
Emily Wallace; Alberto Arribas
Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts for River Basins
A methodology has been formulated to aid a field forecaster in preparing probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) for river basins. The format of probabilistic QPF is designed to meet three requirements: (i) it is compatible with ...
Roman Krzysztofowicz; William J. Drzal; Theresa Rossi Drake; James C. Weyman; Louis A. Giordano
A General Framework for Forecast Verification
A general framework for forecast verification based on the joint distribution of forecasts and observations is described. For further elaboration of the framework, two factorizations of the joint distribution are investigated: 1) the calibration-...
Allan H. Murphy; Robert L. Winkler
Antarctic Satellite Meteorology: Applications for Weather Forecasting
For over 30 years, weather forecasting for the Antarctic continent and adjacent Southern Ocean has relied on weather satellites. Significant advancements in forecasting skill have come via the weather satellite. The advent of the high-resolution ...
Matthew A. Lazzara; Linda M. Keller; Charles R. Stearns; Jonathan E. Thom; George A. Weidner
Value from Ambiguity in Ensemble Forecasts
This study explores the objective application of ambiguity information, that is, the uncertainty in forecast probability derived from an ensemble. One application approach, called uncertainty folding, merges ambiguity with forecast uncertainty ...
Mark S. Allen; F. Anthony Eckel
Management of supply chain: an alternative modelling technique for forecasting
Forecasting is a necessity almost in any operation. However, the tools of forecasting are still primitive in view
Datta, Shoumen
Improving week two forecasts with multi-model re-forecast ensembles
Improving week two forecasts with multi-model re-forecast ensembles Jeffrey S. Whitaker and Xue Wei NOAA-CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center, Boulder, CO Fr´ed´eric Vitart Seasonal Forecasting Group, ECMWF dataset of ensemble 're-forecasts' from a single model can significantly improve the skill
Whitaker, Jeffrey S.
Forecasting for energy and chemical decision analysis
This paper focuses on uncertainty and bias in forecasts used for major energy and chemical investment decisions. Probability methods for characterizing uncertainty in the forecast are reviewed. Sources of forecasting bias are classified based on the results of relevant psychology research. Examples are drawn from the energy and chemical industry to illustrate the value of explicit characterization of uncertainty and reduction of bias in forecasts.
Cazalet, E.G.
A Rank Approach to Equity Forecast Construction
that are fit for their purpose; for example, returningaggregate county and sector forecasts that are consistent by construction....
Satchell, Stephen E; Wright, Stephen M
Forecasting Techniques Utilized by the Forecast Branch of the National Meteorological Center During a Major Convective Rainfall Event
Meteorologists within the Forecast Branch (FB) of the National Meteorological Center (NMC) produce operational quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs). These manual forecasts are prepared utilizing various forecasting techniques, which are ...
Theodore W. Funk
Application of Forecast Verification Science to Operational River Forecasting in the U.S. National Weather Service
Forecast verification in operational hydrology has been very limited to date, mainly due to the complexity of verifying both forcing input forecasts and hydrologic forecasts on multiple space�time scales. However, forecast verification needs to ...
Julie Demargne; Mary Mullusky; Kevin Werner; Thomas Adams; Scott Lindsey; Noreen Schwein; William Marosi; Edwin Welles
Export.gov - Welcome to CS World Bank
World Bank World Bank Print | E-mail Page World Bank World Bank Home Doing Business with the World Bank Services for U.S. Companies Trade Events Links About the World Bank New Projects from the World Bank Understanding the Project Cycle The PSLO Program Contact Us Our Worldwide Network About Us Press Room Other Multilateral Development Banks Other Worldwide Markets Welcome to CS World Bank! The World Bank lends and invests billions of dollars in developing countries every year. This constant stream of funds is used to buy goods, consulting services, and civil works projects that contribute to economic development in those countries. The system of doing business with the World Bank is similar to government procurement systems in many countries. Our Global Network at Work Learn how a small manufacturing company began exporting to Turkey
Load Forecasting for Modern Distribution Systems
Load forecasting is a fundamental activity for numerous organizations and activities within a utility, including planning, operations, and control. Transmission and Distribution (T&D) planning and design engineers use the load forecast to determine whether any changes and additions are needed to the electric system to satisfy the anticipated load. Other load forecast users include system operations, financial ...
Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast For
Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast For West Virginia: 2011 Update Prepared for the West December 2011 © Copyright 2011 WVU Research Corporation #12;#12;W.Va. Consensus Coal Forecast Update 2011 i Table of Contents Executive Summary 1 Recent Developments 3 Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast
Modeling and Forecasting Electric Daily Peak Loads
Forecast Update As part of the Mid Term Assessment, staff is preparing a long term wholesale electricity 29, 2012 Preliminary Results of the Electricity Price Forecast Update As part of the Mid Term Assessment, staff is preparing a long term wholesale electricity market price forecast. A summary of the work
Abdel-Aal, Radwan E.
CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 FINAL FORECAST Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand in this report. #12;i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The demand forecast is the combined product of the hard work to the contributing authors listed previously, Mohsen Abrishami prepared the commercial sector forecast. Mehrzad
CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 REVISED FORECAST Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand in this report. #12;i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The demand forecast is the combined product of the hard work listed previously, Mohsen Abrishami prepared the commercial sector forecast. Mehrzad Soltani Nia helped
REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022 Volume 2: Electricity Demand by Utility ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The staff demand forecast is the combined product of the hard work and expertise of numerous, Mohsen Abrishami prepared the commercial sector forecast. Mehrzad Soltani Nia helped prepare
REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022 Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand in this report. #12;i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The staff demand forecast is the combined product of the hard work listed previously, Mohsen Abrishami prepared the commercial sector forecast. Mehrzad Soltani Nia helped
Load forecast and treatment of conservation
Load forecast and treatment of conservation July 28th 2010 Resource Adequacy Technical Committee conservation is implicitly incorporated in the short-term demand forecast? #12;3 Incorporating conservation in the short-term model Our short-term model is an econometric model which can not explicitly forecast
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION FINAL STAFF FORECAST OF 2008 PEAK DEMAND STAFFREPORT June 2007 CEC-200 of the information in this paper. #12;Abstract This document describes staff's final forecast of 2008 peak demand demand forecasts for the respective territories of the state's three investor-owned utilities (IOUs
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION STAFF FORECAST: AVERAGE RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICES 2005 TO 2018 report, Staff Forecast: Retail Electricity Prices, 2005 to 2018, was prepared with contributions from the technical assistance provided by Greg Broeking of R.W. Beck, Inc. in preparing retail price forecasts
Blue Chip Consensus US GDP Forecast
and metro area from Moody�s Economy.com Equivalent to US-level Gross Domestic Product ? The GMP forecasts have a large impact on the peak load forecasts Rule of thumb: 1 % growth in RTO GMP ? approx. 1,000 MW growth in forecast RTO peak load
James F. Wilson
5, 183218, 2008 A rainfall forecast
HESSD 5, 183218, 2008 A rainfall forecast model using Artificial Neural Network N. Q. Hung et al An artificial neural network model for rainfall forecasting in Bangkok, Thailand N. Q. Hung, M. S. Babel, S Geosciences Union. 183 #12;HESSD 5, 183218, 2008 A rainfall forecast model using Artificial Neural Network N
System Demonstration Multilingual Weather Forecast Generation System
System Demonstration Multilingual Weather Forecast Generation System Tianfang Yao DongmoZhang Qian (Multilingual Weather Forecasts Assistant) system will be demonstrated. It is developed to generate the multilingual text of the weather forecasts automatically. The raw data from the weather observation can be used
(1) Ensemble forecast calibration & (2) using reforecasts
1 (1) Ensemble forecast calibration & (2) using reforecasts Tom Hamill NOAA Earth System Research · Calibration: ; the statistical adjustment of the (ensemble) forecast Rationale 1: Infer large-sample probabilities from small ensemble. Rationale 2: Remove bias, increase forecast reliability while preserving
EA-365 Centre Land Trading Limited | Department of Energy
5 Centre Land Trading Limited EA-365 Centre Land Trading Limited Order Authorizing Centre Land Trading Limited to export electric energy to Canada EA-365 Centre Land Trading...
TAC Program - Making Trade Agreements Work for You!
Barrier? Foreign Trade Barrier Examples Removing Barriers Trade Agreements Compliance Program How We Help Eliminate Foreign Trade Barriers Trade Agreements Compliance Attaches...
Forecasting photovoltaic array power production subject to mismatch losses
The development of photovoltaic (PV) energy throughout the world this last decade has brought to light the presence of module mismatch losses in most PV applications. Such power losses, mainly occasioned by partial shading of arrays and differences in PV modules, can be reduced by changing module interconnections of a solar array. This paper presents a novel method to forecast existing PV array production in diverse environmental conditions. In this approach, field measurement data is used to identify module parameters once and for all. The proposed method simulates PV arrays with adaptable module interconnection schemes in order to reduce mismatch losses. The model has been validated by experimental results taken on a 2.2 kW{sub p} plant, with three different interconnection schemes, which show reliable power production forecast precision in both partially shaded and normal operating conditions. Field measurements show interest in using alternative plant configurations in PV systems for decreasing module mismatch losses. (author)
Picault, D.; Raison, B.; Bacha, S. [Grenoble Electrical Engineering Laboratory (G2Elab), 961, rue Houille Blanche BP 46, 38402 St Martin d'Heres (France); de la Casa, J.; Aguilera, J. [Grupo de Investigacion IDEA, Departamento de Electronica, Escuela Politecnica Superior, Universidad de Jaen, Campus Las Lagunillas, 23071 Jaen (Spain)
Analysis Papers > Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Analysis Papers > Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Release Date: February 2005 Next Release Date: February 2006 Printer-friendly version Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation* Table 1.Comparison of Absolute Percent Errors for Present and Current AEO Forecast Evaluations Printer Friendly Version Average Absolute Percent Error Variable AEO82 to AEO99 AEO82 to AEO2000 AEO82 to AEO2001 AEO82 to AEO2002 AEO82 to AEO2003 AEO82 to AEO2004 Consumption Total Energy Consumption 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 Total Petroleum Consumption 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.9 Total Natural Gas Consumption 7.3 7.1 7.1 6.7 6.4 6.5 Total Coal Consumption 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 Total Electricity Sales 1.9 2.0 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 Production Crude Oil Production 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.7
Price forecasting for notebook computers
This paper proposes a four-step approach that uses statistical regression to forecast notebook computer prices. Notebook computer price is related to constituent features over a series of time periods, and the rates of change in the influence of individual features are estimated. A time series analysis is used to forecast and can be used, for example, to forecast (1) notebook computer price at introduction, and (2) rate of price erosion for a notebook's life cycle. Results indicate that this approach can forecast the price of a notebook computer up to four months in advance of its introduction with an average error of under 10% and the rate of price erosion to within 10% of the price for seven months after introduction-the length of the typical life cycle of a notebook. Since all data are publicly available, this approach can be used to assist managerial decision making in the notebook computer industry, for example, in determining when and how to upgrade a model and when to introduce a new model.
Rutherford, Derek Paul
Evaluation Evaluation Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation by Esmeralda Sanchez The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has been providing an evaluation of the forecasts in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) annually since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on that of the prior year by adding the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. However, the underlying reasons for deviations between the projections and realized history tend to be the same from one evaluation to the next. The most significant conclusions are: Over the last two decades, there have been many significant changes in laws, policies, and regulations that could not have been anticipated and were not assumed in the projections prior to their implementation. Many of these actions have had significant impacts on energy supply, demand, and prices; however, the impacts were not incorporated in the AEO projections until their enactment or effective dates in accordance with EIA's requirement to remain policy neutral and include only current laws and regulations in the AEO reference case projections.
5 World Oil Trends WORLD OIL TRENDS
5 World Oil Trends Chapter 1 WORLD OIL TRENDS INTRODUCTION In considering the outlook for California's petroleum supplies, it is important to give attention to expecta- tions of what the world oil market. Will world oil demand increase and, if so, by how much? How will world oil prices be affected
How Do You Like Your Weather?: Using Weather Forecast Data to Improve Short-Term Load Forecasts
This document provides a quick overview of weather forecasts as a data issue in the development of electricity demand forecasts. These are three sections in this Brief: o reasons behind the rise in interest in using weather forecasts in electricity forecasting models, o an overview of what some utilities are doing to evaluate weather forecasts, and o a resource list of weather forecast providers.
International Energy Outlook 2001 - World Energy Consumption
World Energy Consumption World Energy Consumption picture of a printer Printer Friendly Version (PDF) This report presents international energy projections through 2020, prepared by the Energy Information Administration, including outlooks for major energy fuels and issues related to electricity, transportation, and the environment. The International Energy Outlook 2001 (IEO2001) presents the Energy Information Administration (EIA) outlook for world energy markets to 2020. Current trends in world energy markets are discussed in this chapter, followed by a presentation of the IEO2001 projections for energy consumption by primary energy source and for carbon emissions by fossil fuel. Uncertainty in the forecast is highlighted by an examination of alternative assumptions about economic growth and their impacts on the
Wildlife Trade: Summary
Project Summary Project Summary Scenario Student Pages Internet Links Index Subject/Content Area: Physical Science, Social Studies, Mathematics, and Learning Strategies Target Audience: Thornridge is a comprehensive high school serving approximately 2,000 ninth through twelfth grade students living southeast of the Chicago city limits. Student backgrounds vary greatly socio-economically (below the poverty line to approximately six figures), ethnically (7% Caucasian, 87% African-American, 6% Hispanic) and culturally. Mobility and unemployment are high. Steel mills, the auto industry, steel processing plants and the construction trades have been the major employers; however, many no longer exist. Student test scores in all areas are below the state mean. Eighty freshmen, identified as performing
Wildlife Trade: Scenario
real-life situations. The real-life situations. The teacher asks students to spend a few minutes thinking about and jotting down responses in their journals to the question, "When you have gone somewhere on vacation, what kinds of things have you brought back?" She then asks the students to turn to a partner and discuss their responses. Each pair summarizes and shares their comments with the entire group. Several answers were given: pictures, postcards, souvenirs, etc. The project on wildlife trade is expected to be a multiweek inquiry. The goal is to investigate the problem, as defined by the students, using a variety of tools. Students are assigned to base groups or teams, which are frequently reorganized based on interest, but all students return to their base group to share information and help each other fill in the information
real life situations. The real life situations. The teacher asks students to spend a few minutes thinking about and jotting down responses in their journals to the question, "When you have gone somewhere on vacation, what kinds of things have you brought back?" She then asks the students to turn to a partner and discuss their responses. Each pair summarizes and shares their comments with the entire group. Several answers were given: pictures, postcards, souvenirs, etc. The project on wildlife trade is expected to be a multiweek inquiry. The goal is to investigate the problem, as defined by the students, using a variety of tools. Students are assigned to base groups or teams, which are frequently reorganized based on interest, but all students return to their base group to share information and help each other fill in the information
Use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.
The rapid expansion of wind power gives rise to a number of challenges for power system operators and electricity market participants. The key operational challenge is to efficiently handle the uncertainty and variability of wind power when balancing supply and demand in ths system. In this report, we analyze how wind power forecasting can serve as an efficient tool toward this end. We discuss the current status of wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets and develop several methodologies and modeling tools for the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions, from the perspectives of the system operator as well as the wind power producer. In particular, we focus on the use of probabilistic forecasts in operational decisions. Driven by increasing prices for fossil fuels and concerns about greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, wind power, as a renewable and clean source of energy, is rapidly being introduced into the existing electricity supply portfolio in many parts of the world. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has analyzed a scenario in which wind power meets 20% of the U.S. electricity demand by 2030, which means that the U.S. wind power capacity would have to reach more than 300 gigawatts (GW). The European Union is pursuing a target of 20/20/20, which aims to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 20%, increase the amount of renewable energy to 20% of the energy supply, and improve energy efficiency by 20% by 2020 as compared to 1990. Meanwhile, China is the leading country in terms of installed wind capacity, and had 45 GW of installed wind power capacity out of about 200 GW on a global level at the end of 2010. The rapid increase in the penetration of wind power into power systems introduces more variability and uncertainty in the electricity generation portfolio, and these factors are the key challenges when it comes to integrating wind power into the electric power grid. Wind power forecasting (WPF) is an important tool to help efficiently address this challenge, and significant efforts have been invested in developing more accurate wind power forecasts. In this report, we document our work on the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.
Botterud, A.; Zhi, Z.; Wang, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Mendes, J.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V. (Decision and Information Sciences); (INESC Porto)
Free Trade and Global Environmental Governance: Rules, Actors and Conflicts
Free Trade and Global Environmental Governance: Rules, Actors and Conflicts Free Trade and Global Environmental Governance: Rules, Actors and Conflicts Speaker(s): Kate O'Neill Date: September 20, 2001 - 12:00pm Location: Bldg. 90 Seminar Host/Point of Contact: Mithra Moezzi This talk will focus on emerging conflicts between different, but overlapping, sectors of global governance - on the one hand, the international economic order as represented by the World Trade Organization, and on the other, the international environmental order, as represented by the extensive network of global environmental regimes. In particular, it focuses on the fears raised by many that the WTO and associated Bretton Woods institutions are likely to undermine efforts by international governmental organizations and other non-state actors to protect the global environment. This fear has been driven in large part by
Essays on macroeconomics and forecasting
This dissertation consists of three essays. Chapter II uses the method of structural factor analysis to study the effects of monetary policy on key macroeconomic variables in a data rich environment. I propose two structural factor models. One is the structural factor augmented vector autoregressive (SFAVAR) model and the other is the structural factor vector autoregressive (SFVAR) model. Compared to the traditional vector autogression (VAR) model, both models incorporate far more information from hundreds of data series, series that can be and are monitored by the Central Bank. Moreover, the factors used are structurally meaningful, a feature that adds to the understanding of the ��?black box� of the monetary transmission mechanism. Both models generate qualitatively reasonable impulse response functions. Using the SFVAR model, both the ��?price puzzle� and the ��?liquidity puzzle� are eliminated. Chapter III employs the method of structural factor analysis to conduct a forecasting exercise in a data rich environment. I simulate out-of-sample real time forecasting using a structural dynamic factor forecasting model and its variations. I use several structural factors to summarize the information from a large set of candidate explanatory variables. Compared to Stock and Watson (2002)��?s models, the models proposed in this chapter can further allow me to select the factors structurally for each variable to be forecasted. I find advantages to using the structural dynamic factor forecasting models compared to alternatives that include univariate autoregression (AR) model, the VAR model and Stock and Watson��?s (2002) models, especially when forecasting real variables. In chapter IV, we measure U.S. technology shocks by implementing a dual approach, which is based on more reliable price data instead of aggregate quantity data. By doing so, we find the relative volatility of technology shocks and the correlation between output fluctuation and technology shocks to be much smaller than those revealed in most real-business-cycle (RBC) studies. Our results support the findings of Burnside, Eichenbaum and Rebelo (1996), who showed that the correlation between technology shocks and output is exaggerated in the RBC literature. This suggests that one should examine other sources of fluctuations for a better understanding of the business cycle phenomena.
Liu, Dandan
Solar Trade Corporation STC | Open Energy Information
Solar Trade Corporation STC Jump to: navigation, search Name Solar Trade Corporation (STC) Place Lowell, Massachusetts Zip 01851-4519 Sector Solar Product US manufacturer of solar...
Green Hercules Trading Ltd | Open Energy Information
Login | Sign Up Search Page Edit with form History Facebook icon Twitter icon Green Hercules Trading Ltd Jump to: navigation, search Name Green Hercules Trading Ltd....
Load Forecasting on Special Days & Holidays in Power Distribution Substation Using Neural & Fuzzy Networks
The demand for neural and fuzzy network techniques to predict the increasing load and its application has changed to an ordinary action. However the facts of the real world caused special and exceptional conditions to be created in this network. Like ... Keywords: Power system, Load forecasting, neural & fuzzy network, Short-term prediction of load.
Saeid Nahi
Implicit Mercantilism, Oligopoly, and Trade
the same time home AC is greater than world price. �Averagehigh max of p W = AC min and allow world price to decline.domain, if world price shifts up or domestic AC shifts up,
MCGUIRE, MARTIN C.; Ohta, Hiroshi
Critical Operating Constraint Forecasting (COCF)
This document represents the progress report and Task 1 letter report of the California Institute for Energy and Environment (CIEE) contract funded by the California Energy Commission (CEC), Critical Operating Constraint Forecasting (COCF) for California Independent System Operator (CAISO) Planning Phase. Task 1 was to accomplish the following items: Collect data from CAISO to set up the WECC power flow base case representing the CAISO system in the summer of 2006 Run TRACE for maximizing California Impo...
Trade and the environment: Discussion
The author presents a synopsis of several papers on the issue of international trade and the environment. The papers address the following topics: the complex interrelationships of international trade, environment, and poverty in developing countries; environmental aspects of economic relations between nations; and the debate between environmentalists and free trade advocates. The author also adds comments about the US embargo on Mexican yellow-fin tuna imports, concluding that this unilateral embargo action, while initially creating tentions, may have provided a useful impetus to working out a multinational environmental standard.
Lutz, E.
Forecasting Techniques The Use of Hourly Model-Generated Soundings to Forecast Mesoscale Phenomena. Part I: Initial Assessment in Forecasting Warm-Season Phenomena
Since late 1995, NCEP has made available to forecasters hourly model guidance at selected sites in the form of vertical profiles of various forecast fields. These profiles provide forecasters with increased temporal resolution and greater ...
Robert E. Hart; Gregory S. Forbes; Richard H. Grumm
U.S. Trade Policy and the Japanese Patent System
Economic Affairs, International Trade Policy Bureau; Chief,of Economic Affairs, International Trade Policy Bureau, MITI
Girouard, Robert J.
Rising College Premiums in Mexico: How Important Is Trade?
trade and investment liberalisation, �nancial crisis, andR. , 2000. Trade liberalisation and wage inequality: Lessons
Mehta, Aashish; Acuna, Belinda
Meese-Rogoff redux: Micro-based exchange-rate forecasting
Johnatban. "Exchange Rate Forecasting: The Errors We'veBased Exchange-Rate Forecasting By MARTIN D . D . EVANS ANDon longer-horizon forecasting, we examine forecasting over
Evans, MDD; Lyons, Richard K.
The Past as Prologue? Business Cycles and Forecasting since the 1960s
Forecasters,� Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 28, No. 2, Mar,of Macroeconomic Forecasting� Journal of Macroeconomics,of Federal Reserve Forecasting,� Journal of Macroeconomics,
Bardhan, Ashok Deo; Hicks, Daniel; Kroll, Cynthia A.; Yu, Tiffany
The Value of Emissions Trading
This paper estimates the value of international emissions trading, focusing attention on a here-to-fore neglected component: its value as a hedge against uncertainty. Much analysis has been done of the Kyoto Protocol and ...
Webster, Mort David.
Two Southern California Trade Trails
be about TWO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TRADE TRAILS cranes. WhenHowe 1885 History of California, Vol. 11, 1801-1824 (TheCompany. J O U R N A L OF CALIFORNIA A N D GREAT BASIN
Johnston, Francis J
Mathematical and computer modelling reports: Modeling and forecasting energy markets with the intermediate future forecasting system
This paper describes the Intermediate Future Forecasting System (IFFS), which is the model used to forecast integrated energy markets by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The model contains representations of supply and demand for all of the ...
Frederic H. Murphy; John J. Conti; Susan H. Shaw; Reginald Sanders
BMA Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting over the Huaihe Basin Using TIGGE Multi-model Ensemble Forecasts
Bayesian model averaging (BMA) probability quantitative precipitation forecast (PQPF) models were established by calibrating their parameters using one- to seven-day ensemble forecasts of 24-hour accumulated precipitation, and observations from 43 ...
Jianguo Liu; Zhenghui Xie
Using National Air Quality Forecast Guidance to Develop Local Air Quality Index Forecasts
The National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC) currently provides next-day forecasts of ozone concentrations over the contiguous United States. It was developed collaboratively by NOAA and Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in order to ...
Brian Eder; Daiwen Kang; S. Trivikrama Rao; Rohit Mathur; Shaocai Yu; Tanya Otte; Ken Schere; Richard Wayland; Scott Jackson; Paula Davidson; Jeff McQueen; George Bridgers
Role of Retrospective Forecasts of GCMs Forced with Persisted SST Anomalies in Operational Streamflow Forecasts Development
Seasonal streamflow forecasts contingent on climate information are essential for water resources planning and management as well as for setting up contingency measures during extreme years. In this study, operational streamflow forecasts are ...
A. Sankarasubramanian; Upmanu Lall; Susan Espinueva
Evaluation of MJO Forecast Skill from Several Statistical and Dynamical Forecast Models
This work examines the performance of Madden�Julian oscillation (MJO) forecasts from NCEP�s coupled and uncoupled general circulation models (GCMs) and statistical models. The forecast skill from these methods is evaluated in near�real time. ...
Kyong-Hwan Seo; Wanqiu Wang; Jon Gottschalck; Qin Zhang; Jae-Kyung E. Schemm; Wayne R. Higgins; Arun Kumar
A Probabilistic Forecast Contest and the Difficulty in Assessing Short-Range Forecast Uncertainty
Results are presented from a probability-based weather forecast contest. Rather than evaluating the absolute errors of nonprobabilistic temperature and precipitation forecasts, as is common in other contests, this contest evaluated the skill of ...
Thomas M. Hamill; Daniel S. Wilks
Calibrated Precipitation Forecasts for a Limited-Area Ensemble Forecast System Using Reforecasts
The calibration of numerical weather forecasts using reforecasts has been shown to increase the skill of weather predictions. Here, the precipitation forecasts from the Consortium for Small Scale Modeling Limited Area Ensemble Prediction System (...
Felix Fundel; Andre Walser; Mark A. Liniger; Christoph Frei; Christof Appenzeller
Implications of Ensemble Quantitative Precipitation Forecast Errors on Distributed Streamflow Forecasting
Evaluating the propagation of errors associated with ensemble quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) into the ensemble streamflow response is important to reduce uncertainty in operational flow forecasting. In this paper, a multifractal ...
Giuseppe Mascaro; Enrique R. Vivoni; Roberto Deidda
Evaluation of Probabilistic Precipitation Forecasts Determined from Eta and AVN Forecasted Amounts
This note examines the connection between the probability of precipitation and forecasted amounts from the NCEP Eta (now known as the North American Mesoscale model) and Aviation (AVN; now known as the Global Forecast System) models run over a 2-...
William A. Gallus Jr.; Michael E. Baldwin; Kimberly L. Elmore
Reliable Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts from a Short-Range Ensemble Forecasting System
A simple binning technique is developed to produce reliable 3-h probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts (PQPFs) from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) multimodel short-range ensemble forecasting system obtained ...
David J. Stensrud; Nusrat Yussouf
The Impact of Writing Area Forecast Discussions on Student Forecaster Performance
A brief study is provided on the forecast performance of students who write a mock area forecast discussion (AFD) on a weekly basis. Student performance was tracked for one semester (11 weeks) during the University of Missouri�Columbia's local ...
Patrick S. Market
An Operational Model for Forecasting Probability of Precipitation and Yes/No Forecast
An operational system for forecasting probability of precipitation (PoP) and yes/no forecast over 10 stations during monsoon season is developed. A perfect prog method (PPM) approach is followed for statistical interpretation of numerical weather ...
Ashok Kumar; Parvinder Maini; S. V. Singh
Evaluation of Probabilistic Medium-Range Temperature Forecasts from the North American Ensemble Forecast System
Ensemble temperature forecasts from the North American Ensemble Forecast System were assessed for quality against observations for 10 cities in western North America, for a 7-month period beginning in February 2007. Medium-range probabilistic ...
Doug McCollor; Roland Stull
Further Evaluation of the National Meterological Center's Medium-Range Forecast Model Precpitation Forecasts
Precipitation forecasts made by the National Meteorological Center's medium-range forecast (MRF) model are evaluated for the period, 1 March 1987 to 31 March 1989. As shown by Roads and Maisel, the MRF model wet bias was substantially alleviated ...
John O. Roads; T. Norman Maisal; Jordan Alpert
R/ECON July 2000 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE
R/ECON July 2000 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE FORECAST OF JULY 2000 NEW JERSEY of growth will decelerate over the forecast period. The R/ECON TM forecast for New Jersey in 2000 looks to decelerate over the course of the forecast. These forces will combine to push the unemployment rate to more
Increasing NOAA's computational capacity to improve global forecast modeling
1 Increasing NOAA's computational capacity to improve global forecast modeling A NOAA of the NWS's forecast products, even its regional forecast products, are constrained by the limitations of NOAA's global forecast model. Unfortunately, our global forecasts are less accurate than those from
Forecasting Random Walks Under Drift Instability
Forecasting Random Walks Under Drift Instability? M. Hashem Pesaran University of Cambridge, CIMF, and USC Andreas Pick University of Cambridge, CIMF March 11, 2008 Abstract This paper considers forecast averaging when the same model is used... but estimation is carried out over different estimation windows. It develops theoretical results for random walks when their drift and/or volatility are subject to one or more structural breaks. It is shown that compared to using forecasts based on a single...
Pesaran, M Hashem; Pick, Andreas
International Energy Outlook 2001 - World Oil Markets
World Oil Markets World Oil Markets picture of a printer Printer Friendly Version (PDF) In the IEO2001 forecast, periodic production adjustments by OPEC members are not expected to have a significant long-term impact on world oil markets. Prices are projected to rise gradually through 2020 as the oil resource base is expanded. Crude oil prices remained above $25 per barrel in nominal terms for most of 2000 and have been near $30 per barrel in the early months of 2001. Prices were influenced by the disciplined adherence to announced cutbacks in production by members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). OPECs successful market management strategy was an attempt to avoid a repeat of the ultra-low oil price environment of 1998 and early 1999. Three additional factors contributed to the resiliency of oil prices in
Solar future: 1978. [Market forecast to 1992
The growth in sales of solar heating equipment is discussed. Some forecasts are made for the continued market growth of collectors, pool systems, and photovoltaics. (MOW)
Butt, S.H.
Energy conservation and official UK energy forecasts
Behind the latest United Kingdom (UK) official forecasts of energy demand are implicit assumptions about future energy-price elasticities. Mr. Pearce examines the basis of the forecasts and finds that the long-term energy-price elasticities that they imply are two or three times too low. The official forecasts substantially understate the responsiveness of demand to energy price rises. If more-realistic price elasticities were assumed, the official forecasts would imply a zero primary energy-demand growth to 2000. This raises the interesting possibility of a low energy future being brought about entirely by market forces. 15 references, 3 tables.
Pearce, D.
Geothermal wells: a forecast of drilling activity
Numbers and problems for geothermal wells expected to be drilled in the United States between 1981 and 2000 AD are forecasted. The 3800 wells forecasted for major electric power projects (totaling 6 GWe of capacity) are categorized by type (production, etc.), and by location (The Geysers, etc.). 6000 wells are forecasted for direct heat projects (totaling 0.02 Quads per year). Equations are developed for forecasting the number of wells, and data is presented. Drilling and completion problems in The Geysers, The Imperial Valley, Roosevelt Hot Springs, the Valles Caldera, northern Nevada, Klamath Falls, Reno, Alaska, and Pagosa Springs are discussed. Likely areas for near term direct heat projects are identified.
Brown, G.L.; Mansure, A.J.; Miewald, J.N.
Time Series Prediction Forecasting the Future and ...
Time Series Prediction Forecasting the Future and Understanding the Past Santa Fe Institute Proceedings on the Studies in the Sciences of ...
Promotional forecasting in the grocery retail business
Predicting customer demand in the highly competitive grocery retail business has become extremely difficult, especially for promotional items. The difficulty in promotional forecasting has resulted from numerous internal ...
Koottatep, Pakawkul
Rolling 12 Month Forecast November-2008.xls
Month Exceedence Level: 90% (Dry) First Preference CVP Generation Project Use November 2008 October 2009 November 2008 Twelve-Month Forecast of CVP Generation and Base Resource...
Forecasting Prices andForecasting Prices and Congestion forCongestion for
Abstract--In deregulated electricity markets, short-term load forecasting is important for reliable power322 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS, VOL. 25, NO. 1, FEBRUARY 2010 Short-Term Load Forecasting presents a similar day-based wavelet neural network method to forecast tomorrow's load. The idea
Tesfatsion, Leigh
Wind Power Forecasting andWind Power Forecasting and Electricity Market Operations
Power Forecasting in Five U.S. Electricity Markets MISO NYISO PJM ERCOT CAISO Peak load 109,157 MW (7 ........................................................................................... 18 4 WIND POWER FORECASTING AND ELECTRICITY MARKET OPERATIONS............................................................ 18 4-1 Market Operation and Wind Power Forecasting in Five U.S. Electricity Markets .......... 21 #12
Kemner, Ken
Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Table 1. Forecast Evaluations:
Average Absolute Percent Errors from AEO Forecast Evaluations: Average Absolute Percent Errors from AEO Forecast Evaluations: 1996 to 2000 Average Absolute Percent Error Average Absolute Percent Error Average Absolute Percent Error Average Absolute Percent Error Average Absolute Percent Error Variable 1996 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO93 1997 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO97 1998 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO98 1999 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO99 2000 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO2000 Consumption Total Energy Consumption 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 Total Petroleum Consumption 3.2 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.9 Total Natural Gas Consumption 6.0 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.6 Total Coal Consumption 2.9 2.7 3.0 3.2 3.3 Total Electricity Sales 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.8 2.0 Production Crude Oil Production 5.1 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.5
Forecasting during the Lake-ICE/SNOWBANDS Field Experiments
Despite improvements in numerical weather prediction models, statistical models, forecast decision trees, and forecasting rules of thumb, human interpretation of meteorological information for a particular forecast situation can still yield a ...
Peter J. Sousounis; Greg E. Mann; George S. Young; Richard B. Wagenmaker; Bradley D. Hoggatt; William J. Badini
Experiments in Temperature and Precipitation Forecasting for Illinois
Six years of daily temperature and precipitation forecasting are studied for Urbana, Illinois. Minimum temperature forecast skills, measured against a climatological control, are 57%, 48%, 34% and 20% for the respective forecast ranges of one, ...
John R. Gyakum
the entire forecast period, primarily because both weather-adjusted peak and electricity consumption were forecast. Keywords Electricity demand, electricity consumption, demand forecast, weather normalization, annual peak demand, natural gas demand, self-generation, conservation, California Solar Initiative. #12
The Economic Value Of Ensemble-Based Weather Forecasts
The potential economic benefit associated with the use of an ensemble of forecasts versus anequivalent or higher-resolution control forecast is discussed. Neither forecast systems are post-processed,except a simple calibration that is applied to ...
Yuejian Zhu; Zoltan Toth; Richard Wobus; David Richardson; Kenneth Mylne
A Probabilistic Forecast Approach for Daily Precipitation Totals
Commonly, postprocessing techniques are employed to calibrate a model forecast. Here, a probabilistic postprocessor is presented that provides calibrated probability and quantile forecasts of precipitation on the local scale. The forecasts are ...
Petra Friederichs; Andreas Hense
Precipitation and Temperature Forecast Performance at the Weather Prediction Center
The role of the human forecaster in improving upon the accuracy of numerical weather prediction is explored using multi-year verification of human-generated short-range precipitation forecasts and medium-range maximum temperature forecasts from ...
David R. Novak; Christopher Bailey; Keith Brill; Patrick Burke; Wallace Hogsett; Robert Rausch; Michael Schichtel
Uses and Applications of Climate Forecasts for Power Utilities
The uses and potential applications of climate forecasts for electric and gas utilities were assessed 1) to discern needs for improving climate forecasts and guiding future research, and 2) to assist utilities in making wise use of forecasts. In-...
Stanley A. Changnon; Joyce M. Changnon; David Changnon
Forecasting and Verifying in a Field Research Project: DOPLIGHT '87
Verification of forecasts during research field experiments is discussed and exemplified using the DOPLIGHT '87 experiment. We stress the importance of forecast verification if forecasting is to be a serious component of the research. A direct ...
Charles A. Doswell III; John A. Flueck
Diversity in Interpretations of Probability: Implications for Weather Forecasting
Over the last years, probability weather forecasts have become increasingly popular due in part to the development of ensemble forecast systems. Despite its widespread use in atmospheric sciences, probability forecasting remains a subtle and ...
Ram�n de El�a; Ren� Laprise
An Alternative Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecast Verification Technique
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) does not verify official or model forecasts if those forecasts call for a tropical cyclone to dissipate or if the real tropical cyclone dissipates. A new technique in which these forecasts are included in a ...
Sim D. Aberson
On the Reliability and Calibration of Ensemble Forecasts
An important aspect of ensemble forecasting is that the resulting probabilities are reliable (i.e., the forecast probabilities match the observed frequencies). In the medium-range forecasting context, the literature tends to focus on the ...
Christine Johnson; Neill Bowler
Scoring Probabilistic Forecasts: The Importance of Being Proper
Questions remain regarding how the skill of operational probabilistic forecasts is most usefully evaluated or compared, even though probability forecasts have been a long-standing aim in meteorological forecasting. This paper explains the ...
Jochen Br�cker; Leonard A. Smith
Prediction of Consensus Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Error
The extent to which the tropical cyclone (TC) track forecast error of a consensus model (CONU) routinely used by the forecasters at the National Hurricane Center can be predicted is determined. A number of predictors of consensus forecast error, ...
James S. Goerss
An Experiment in Mesoscale Weather Forecasting in the Michigan Area
During an experiment in mesoscale weather forecasting in the Michigan area, consensus improved over NWS guidance in maximum/minimum temperature and probability of precipitation forecasts out to 24 hours. Forecasts were generally best in the ...
Dennis G. Baker
Sheet3 Sheet2 Sheet1 Figure 106. Average annual minemouth coal prices by region, 1990-2040 (2011 dollars per million Btu) Appalachia Interior West US Average
From Trade-to-Trade in US Treasuries
will use small limit orders to search for trading counter parties. Once they have identified a dealer who has indicated a willingness to trade, they will enter into quantity negotiations, i.e. a workup will take place. This process affords greater anonymity... the dataset and characterises the data in terms of transaction size, intensity and workups. A comprehensive examination of the data is undertaken and the analysis suggests that the information content of news arrival, volume and workup time each have a role...
Dungey, Mardi; Henry, Olan; McKenzie, Michael
Estimating relative confidence of conditional world oil supply and demand equilibrium
This paper draws from the survey by the National Petroleum Council (NPC) of industry representatives and consulting/forecasting organizations on the likely market configuration under two different world oil price scenarios. The pseudo-data approach treats the forecast price and quantity variables from the various forecasts as pooled time-series, cross-sectional data, and applies traditional econometric techniques to estimate supply and demand curves. We focus on estimating US domestic supply and demand curves and respondent-specific shift factors from a subsample of the NPC survey. We find that all respondents in the survey are more confident about demand than supply forecasts. The underlying differences in individual GNP forecasts account for much of the uncertainty in demand for most respondents, but are still 2 to 6 times more confident of demand than supply. 4 refs., 1 fig., 6 tabs.
Boyd, G.A.; Hanson, D.A.; Hochheiser, H.W.
Price and Load Forecasting in Volatile Energy Markets
With daily news stories about wildly fluctuating electricity prices and soaring natural gas prices, forecasters' responsibilities are expanding, visibility is increasing, and pressure exists to produce more frequent forecasts and more kinds of forecasts. The proceedings of EPRI's 13th Forecasting Symposium, held November 13-15 in Nashville, Tennessee, address current forecasting issues and developments, as well as explain the role that forecasters have played in recent events in energy markets.
Blasting Vibration Forecast Base on Neural Network
The influence of blasting vibration to surroundings around the blasting area can not be ignored, in order to guarantee the safety of surroundings around blasting area, blasting vibration forecasting model based on neural network is established by improved ... Keywords: Blasting vibration, Neural network, Forecast
Haiwang Ye; Fang Liu; Jian Chang; Lin Feng; Yang Wang; Peng Yao; Kai Wu
Evaluating the Skill of Categorical Forecasts
A generalized skill score is presented for evaluating forecasts in any number of categories. Each forecast in a sample is given a mark; the skill score for the sample is just the average mark. Each mark has an expected value of zero for an ...
Neil D. Gordon
Forecasting demand of commodities after natural disasters
Demand forecasting after natural disasters is especially important in emergency management. However, since the time series of commodities demand after natural disasters usually has a great deal of nonlinearity and irregularity, it has poor prediction ... Keywords: ARIMA, Demand forecasting, EMD, Emergency management, Natural disaster
Xiaoyan Xu; Yuqing Qi; Zhongsheng Hua
Time series forecasting with Qubit Neural Networks
This paper proposes a quantum learning scheme approach for time series forecasting, through the application of the new non-standard Qubit Neural Network (QNN) model. The QNN description was adapted in this work in order to resemble classical Artificial ... Keywords: artificial intelligence, artificial neural networks, quantum computing, qubit neural networks, time series forecasting
Carlos R. B. Azevedo; Tiago A. E. Ferreira
Making Forecasts and Weather Normalization Work Together
Electric utility industry restructuring has changed the consistency between weather-normalized sales and energy forecasts. This Technology Review discusses the feasibility of integrating weather normalization and forecasting processes, and addresses whether the conflicting goal of obtaining greater consistency and accuracy with fewer staff resources can be met with more integrated approaches.
A spatially distributed flash flood forecasting model
This paper presents a distributed model that is in operational use for forecasting flash floods in northern Austria. The main challenge in developing the model was parameter identification which was addressed by a modelling strategy that involved a model ... Keywords: Distributed modelling, Dominant processes concept, Floods, Forecasting, Kalman Filter, Model accuracy, Parameter identification, Stream routing
G�nter Bl�schl; Christian Reszler; J�rgen Komma
The NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2
The second version of the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) was made operational at NCEP in March 2011. This version has upgrades to nearly all aspects of the data assimilation and forecast model components of the system. A coupled Reanalysis ...
Suranjana Saha; Shrinivas Moorthi; Xingren Wu; Jiande Wang; Sudhir Nadiga; Patrick Tripp; David Behringer; Yu-Tai Hou; Hui-ya Chuang; Mark Iredell; Michael Ek; Jesse Meng; Rongqian Yang; Malaqu�as Pe�a Mendez; Huug van den Dool; Qin Zhang; Wanqiu Wang; Mingyue Chen; Emily Becker
Forecast of geothermal-drilling activity
The number of geothermal wells that will be drilled to support electric power production in the United States through 2000 A.D. are forecasted. Results of the forecast are presented by 5-year periods for the five most significant geothermal resources.
Mansure, A.J.; Brown, G.L.
Preemptive Forecasts Using an Ensemble Kalman Filter
An ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) estimates the error statistics of a model forecast using an ensemble of model forecasts. One use of an EnKF is data assimilation, resulting in the creation of an increment to the first-guess field at the ...
Brian J. Etherton
Incentives for Retailer Forecasting: Rebates vs. Returns
This paper studies a manufacturer that sells to a newsvendor retailer who can improve the quality of her demand information by exerting costly forecasting effort. In such a setting, contracts play two roles: providing incentives to influence the retailer's ... Keywords: endogenous adverse selection, forecasting, rebates, returns, supply chain contracting
Terry A. Taylor; Wenqiang Xiao
Efficient forecasting for hierarchical time series
Forecasting is used as the basis for business planning in many application areas such as energy, sales and traffic management. Time series data used in these areas is often hierarchically organized and thus, aggregated along the hierarchy levels based ... Keywords: forecasting, hierarchies, optimization, time series
Lars Dannecker; Robert Lorenz; Philipp R�sch; Wolfgang Lehner; Gregor Hackenbroich
Possibility of Skill Forecast Based on the Finite-Time Dominant Linear Solutions for a Primitive Equation Regional Forecast Model
The possibility of using forecast errors originating from the finite-time dominant linear modes for the prediction of forecast skill for a primitive equation regional forecast model is studied. This is similar to the method for skill prediction ...
Tomislava Vuki?evi?
Evaluating the Cloud Cover Forecast of NCEP Global Forecast System with Satellite Observation
To assess the quality of daily cloud cover forecast generated by the operational global numeric model, the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS), we compose a large sample with outputs from GFS model and satellite observations from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) in the period of July 2004 to June 2008, to conduct a quantitative and systematic assessment of the performance of a cloud model that covers a relatively long range of time, basic cloud types, and in a global view. The evaluation has revealed the goodness of the model forecast, which further illustrates our completeness on understanding cloud generation mechanism. To quantity the result, we found a remarkably high correlation between the model forecasts and the satellite observations over the entire globe, with mean forecast error less than 15% in most areas. Considering a forecast within 30% difference to the observation to be a "good" one, we find that the probability for the GFS model to make good forecasts varies between...
Ye, Quanzhi
SunShot Initiative: Forecasting and Influencing Technological...
Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress in Solar Energy to someone by E-mail Share SunShot Initiative: Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress in Solar Energy...
New Climate Research Centers Forecast Changes and Challenges...
Climate Research Centers Forecast Changes and Challenges New Climate Research Centers Forecast Changes and Challenges October 25, 2013 - 12:24pm Addthis This artist's rendering...
Exploiting Domain Knowledge to Forecast Heating Oil Consumption
The GasDay laboratory at Marquette University provides forecasts of energy consumption. One such service is the Heating Oil Forecaster
George F. Corliss; Tsuginosuke Sakauchi; Steven R. Vitullo; Ronald H. Brown
Building Energy Software Tools Directory: Energy Usage Forecasts
Alphabetically Tools by Platform PC Mac UNIX Internet Tools by Country Related Links Energy Usage Forecasts Energy Usage Forecasts Quick and easy web-based tool that provides...
EA-178-B Edison Mission Marketing & Trading, Inc | Department...
-B Edison Mission Marketing & Trading, Inc EA-178-B Edison Mission Marketing & Trading, Inc Order authorizing Edison Mission Marketing & Trading, Inc to export electric energy to...
1993 Pacific Northwest Loads and Resources Study, Pacific Northwest Economic and Electricity Use Forecast, Technical Appendix: Volume 1.
This publication documents the load forecast scenarios and assumptions used to prepare BPA`s Whitebook. It is divided into: intoduction, summary of 1993 Whitebook electricity demand forecast, conservation in the load forecast, projection of medium case electricity sales and underlying drivers, residential sector forecast, commercial sector forecast, industrial sector forecast, non-DSI industrial forecast, direct service industry forecast, and irrigation forecast. Four appendices are included: long-term forecasts, LTOUT forecast, rates and fuel price forecasts, and forecast ranges-calculations.
United States. Bonneville Power Administration.
A Short-Range Forecasting Experiment Conducted during the Canadian Atlantic Storms Program
During the Canadian Atlantic Storms Program (CASP), a dedicated forecast center conducted experiments in mesoscale forecasting. Several forecast products, including a marine forecast and a site-specific public forecast, were written every 3 h. ...
K. A. Macdonald; M. Danks; J. D. Abraham
U.S. Agriculture's Role Greenhouse Gas Emission Mitigation World
U.S. Agriculture's Role in a Greenhouse Gas Emission Mitigation World: An Economic Perspective the IMPAC project. #12;Abstract International agreements are likely to stimulate greenhouse gas mitigation Words Agricultural Sinks, Emissions Trading, Greenhouse Gas Emission Reductions, Kyoto Protocol #12
McCarl, Bruce A.
World NGL markets continue rapid expansion
The international LPG industry has expanded rapidly during the 1990s and undergone significant changes. LPG consumption has expanded at nearly twice the rate of world petroleum demand. In particular, LPG use in residential and commercial markets has more than doubled in many developing countries. Markets for LPG and other petroleum products have been opened in many countries, accelerating demand growth and creating investment opportunities in all downstream segments. This has led to an overall strengthening of global LPG pricing and the development of many new export gas-processing projects. The paper discusses world LPG demand in residential and commercial markets and in petrochemicals, world LPG supply, regional increases, international trade, the US situation in natural gas, NGL supply, and NGL demand.
Otto, K.; Gist, R.; Whitley, C. [Purvin and Gertz, Houston, TX (United States); Haun, R. [Purvin and Gertz, Dallas, TX (United States)
Decision support for financial forecasting
A primary mission of the Budget Management Division of the Air Force is fiscal analysis. This involves formulating, justifying, and tracking financial data during budget preparation and execution. An essential requirement of this process is the ready availability and easy manipulation of past and current budget data. This necessitates the decentralization of the data. A prototypical system, BAFS (Budget Analysis and Forecasting System), that provides such a capability is presented. In its current state, the system is designed to be a decision support tool. A brief report of the budget decisions and activities is presented. The system structure and its major components are discussed. An insight into the implementation strategies and the tool used is provided. The paper concludes with a discussion of future enhancements and the system's evolution into an expert system. 4 refs., 3 figs.
Jairam, B.N.; Morris, J.D.; Emrich, M.L.; Hardee, H.K.
Construction Safety Forecast for ITER
The International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) project is poised to begin its construction activity. This paper gives an estimate of construction safety as if the experiment was being built in the United States. This estimate of construction injuries and potential fatalities serves as a useful forecast of what can be expected for construction of such a major facility in any country. These data should be considered by the ITER International Team as it plans for safety during the construction phase. Based on average U.S. construction rates, ITER may expect a lost workday case rate of < 4.0 and a fatality count of 0.5 to 0.9 persons per year.
cadwallader, lee charles
Earthquake Forecast via Neutrino Tomography
We discuss the possibility of forecasting earthquakes by means of (anti)neutrino tomography. Antineutrinos emitted from reactors are used as a probe. As the antineutrinos traverse through a region prone to earthquakes, observable variations in the matter effect on the antineutrino oscillation would provide a tomography of the vicinity of the region. In this preliminary work, we adopt a simplified model for the geometrical profile and matter density in a fault zone. We calculate the survival probability of electron antineutrinos for cases without and with an anomalous accumulation of electrons which can be considered as a clear signal of the coming earthquake, at the geological region with a fault zone, and find that the variation may reach as much as 3% for $\\bar \
Bin Wang; Ya-Zheng Chen; Xue-Qian Li
MSSM Forecast for the LHC
We perform a forecast of the MSSM with universal soft terms (CMSSM) for the LHC, based on an improved Bayesian analysis. We do not incorporate ad hoc measures of the fine-tuning to penalize unnatural possibilities: such penalization arises from the Bayesian analysis itself when the experimental value of $M_Z$ is considered. This allows to scan the whole parameter space, allowing arbitrarily large soft terms. Still the low-energy region is statistically favoured (even before including dark matter or g-2 constraints). Contrary to other studies, the results are almost unaffected by changing the upper limits taken for the soft terms. The results are also remarkable stable when using flat or logarithmic priors, a fact that arises from the larger statistical weight of the low-energy region in both cases. Then we incorporate all the important experimental constrains to the analysis, obtaining a map of the probability density of the MSSM parameter space, i.e. the forecast of the MSSM. Since not all the experimental information is equally robust, we perform separate analyses depending on the group of observables used. When only the most robust ones are used, the favoured region of the parameter space contains a significant portion outside the LHC reach. This effect gets reinforced if the Higgs mass is not close to its present experimental limit and persits when dark matter constraints are included. Only when the g-2 constraint (based on $e^+e^-$ data) is considered, the preferred region (for $\\mu>0$) is well inside the LHC scope. We also perform a Bayesian comparison of the positive- and negative-$\\mu$ possibilities.
Maria Eugenia Cabrera; Alberto Casas; Roberto Ruiz de Austri
Essays on trades and security prices
This thesis consists of three chapters that investigate the complex relation between security prices and trades of market participants. In the first chapter, I study the evolution of stock prices after trades with different ...
Obizhaeva, Anna
Information and trading patterns in financial markets
This thesis consists of three chapters, each with implications on information and trading patterns in financial markets. Chapter 1: In most financial markets, dealers are given trading advantages meant to encourage liquidity ...
Wang, Albert, 1977-
Europe's cross-border gas trade on the rise
Europe is poised for more growth in the gas industry that is certain to expand international gas trade into the next century. In the affluent societies of western Europe, gas growth will be fueled by an increasing public perception that it is the least environmentally harmful of fossil fuels. That factor is helping boost natural gas and LNG trade in many parts of the world. Gas will continue to penetrate the European residential market, but the biggest growth will occur in the industrial use, particularly for electrical power generation. The European Community has belatedly lifted restrictions on the use of a gas as a fuel for power generation. That, combined with the greater efficiency of cogeneration systems, is likely to set off a 100% increase in Europe's gas fueled power generation capacity in the first 5 years of 1990s.
Demand Trading: Measurement, Verification, and Settlement (MVS)
With this report, EPRI's trilogy of publications on demand trading is complete. The first report (1006015), the "Demand Trading Toolkit," documented how to conduct demand trading based on price. The second report (1001635), "Demand Trading: Building Liquidity," focused on the problem of liquidity in the energy industry and developed the Demand Response Resource Bank concept for governing electricity markets based on reliability. The present report focuses on the emerging price/risk partnerships in electr...
SBIR and Global Trade Summit Presentation
Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE))
Presentation from the July 26, 2012 trade summit in Uncasville, Connecticut, presented by the Small Business Innovation Research program.
Optimization Online - Optimizing Trading Decisions for Hydro ...
Dec 10, 2011 ... Optimizing Trading Decisions for Hydro Storage Systems using Approximate ... Keywords: OR in Energy, Approximate Dynamic Programming,�...
1993 Solid Waste Reference Forecast Summary
This report, which updates WHC-EP-0567, 1992 Solid Waste Reference Forecast Summary, (WHC 1992) forecasts the volumes of solid wastes to be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site during the 30-year period from FY 1993 through FY 2022. The data used in this document were collected from Westinghouse Hanford Company forecasts as well as from surveys of waste generators at other US Department of Energy sites who are now shipping or plan to ship solid wastes to the Hanford Site for disposal. These wastes include low-level and low-level mixed waste, transuranic and transuranic mixed waste, and nonradioactive hazardous waste.
Valero, O.J.; Blackburn, C.L. [Westinghouse Hanford Co., Richland, WA (United States); Kaae, P.S.; Armacost, L.L.; Garrett, S.M.K. [Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (United States)
Forecast Bias Correction: A Second Order Method
The difference between a model forecast and actual observations is called forecast bias. This bias is due to either incomplete model assumptions and/or poorly known parameter values and initial/boundary conditions. In this paper we discuss a method for estimating corrections to parameters and initial conditions that would account for the forecast bias. A set of simple experiments with the logistic ordinary differential equation is performed using an iterative version of a first order version of our method to compare with the second order version of the method.
Crowell, Sean
Industrial production index forecast: Methods comparison
The purpose of this work is to investigate the suitability of different methods as short term forecast tools. It is studied and compared the application of the Kalman filter method with other forecasting methods when applied to a set of qualitative and quantitative information. The work data set is made of qualitative surveys of conjunture and the industrial production index (IPI). The objective is the attainment of short term forecast models for the Portuguese IPI of the transforming industry. After the previous treatment of the data
M. Filomena Teodoro
E-governance in trade facilitation: transparency and ICT as prerequisites for free and fair trade
Trade facilitation is a generic term applied to the procedures and technologies used to integrate domestic trade into global supply chains. While there are other aspects to trade facilitation, ICT is becoming progressively more important. The objective ... Keywords: customs, data standards, e-governance, interconnection, interoperability, single window, supply chain security, technical controls, trade, transparency
Paul Kimberley
China's forest products trade falls nearly 18% China's forest products trade falls nearly 18%
China's forest products trade falls nearly 18% China's forest products trade falls nearly 18% 11/08/2009 - 09:05 According to China's latest Customs statistics, foreign trade of China's forest products in the first five months showed a year-on-year general downturn. The total value of foreign trade of China
Specification and execution of composite trading activities
With the growing number of trading opportunities available online, software tools designed to act on behalf of human traders are increasingly being used to automate trading activities. The next logical step in this evolution is the automation of composite ... Keywords: Concurrent negotiations, Expected utility, Negotiation plans, Negotiation protocols, Trading activities
Yain-Whar Si; David Edmond; Marlon Dumas; Arthur H. Hofstede
Final Report on California Regional Wind Energy Forecasting Project:Application of NARAC Wind Prediction System
Wind power is the fastest growing renewable energy technology and electric power source (AWEA, 2004a). This renewable energy has demonstrated its readiness to become a more significant contributor to the electricity supply in the western U.S. and help ease the power shortage (AWEA, 2000). The practical exercise of this alternative energy supply also showed its function in stabilizing electricity prices and reducing the emissions of pollution and greenhouse gases from other natural gas-fired power plants. According to the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), the world's winds could theoretically supply the equivalent of 5800 quadrillion BTUs of energy each year, which is 15 times current world energy demand (AWEA, 2004b). Archer and Jacobson (2005) also reported an estimation of the global wind energy potential with the magnitude near half of DOE's quote. Wind energy has been widely used in Europe; it currently supplies 20% and 6% of Denmark's and Germany's electric power, respectively, while less than 1% of U.S. electricity is generated from wind (AWEA, 2004a). The production of wind energy in California ({approx}1.2% of total power) is slightly higher than the national average (CEC & EPRI, 2003). With the recently enacted Renewable Portfolio Standards calling for 20% of renewables in California's power generation mix by 2010, the growth of wind energy would become an important resource on the electricity network. Based on recent wind energy research (Roulston et al., 2003), accurate weather forecasting has been recognized as an important factor to further improve the wind energy forecast for effective power management. To this end, UC-Davis (UCD) and LLNL proposed a joint effort through the use of UCD's wind tunnel facility and LLNL's real-time weather forecasting capability to develop an improved regional wind energy forecasting system. The current effort of UC-Davis is aimed at developing a database of wind turbine power curves as a function of wind speed and direction, using its wind tunnel facility at the windmill farm at the Altamont Pass. The main objective of LLNL's involvement is to provide UC-Davis with improved wind forecasts to drive the parameterization scheme of turbine power curves developed from the wind tunnel facility. Another objective of LLNL's effort is to support the windmill farm operation with real-time wind forecasts for the effective energy management. The forecast skill in capturing the situation to meet the cut-in and cutout speed of given turbines would help reduce the operation cost in low and strong wind scenarios, respectively. The main focus of this report is to evaluate the wind forecast errors of LLNL's three-dimensional real-time weather forecast model at the location with the complex terrain. The assessment of weather forecast accuracy would help quantify the source of wind energy forecast errors from the atmospheric forecast model and/or wind-tunnel module for further improvement in the wind energy forecasting system.
Chin, H S
Short-term streamflow forecasting: ARIMA vs neural networks
Streamflow forecasting is very important for water resources management and flood defence. In this paper two forecasting methods are compared: ARIMA versus a multilayer perceptron neural network. This comparison is done by forecasting a streamflow of ... Keywords: artificial neural networks, auto regressive integrated moving average, forecasting, streamflow
Juan Frausto-Solis; Esmeralda Pita; Javier Lagunas
Optimal Updating of Forecasts for the Timing of Future Events
A major problem in forecasting is estimating the time of some future event. traditionally, forecasts are designed to minimize an error cost function that is evaluated once, possibly when the event occurs and forecast accuracy can be determined. However, ... Keywords: Air Transportation, Dynamic Programming Applications, Forecasting
Juhwen Hwang; Medini R. Singh; W. J. Hurley; Robert A. Shumsky
Customization and Marketing of Monsoon Forecasts A CSIRCMMACS Synergy
Customization and Marketing of Monsoon Forecasts A CSIRCMMACS Synergy Criteria for Technical forecasts of monsoon can significantly aid many sectors like agriculture, power and production industries to the operational forecast, to develop and deliver customized monsoon forecasts based on user need is required
Swathi, P S
Update On The Wholesale Electricity Price Forecast & Modeling Results
Forecast Base Case includes § Medium Demand Forecast § Medium Natural Gas Price Forecast § Federal CO2 Rathdrum Power LLC-ID 4) CO2 Emissions - 2009 Selected Natural Gas Plants Plant level, emission percentage § Significantly lower electricity prices than 6th Plan Forecast, due to lower demand, lower gas prices, deferred
or over predicting electricity demand due to poor weather forecasts is several hundred million dollars outages that many in the area experienced. Deep Thunder can also improve generation-side load forecasting by providing high-resolution weather forecast data for use in electricity demand forecast models. Integrating
Manry, Michael
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF REVISED FORECAST forecast is the combined product of the hard work and expertise of numerous staff members in the Demand prepared the residential sector forecast. Mohsen Abrishami prepared the commercial sector forecast. Lynn
R/ECON December 1999 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE
R/ECON December 1999 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE FORECAST OF DECEMBER 1999 NEW and wage growth slow later in the forecast, income growth will average 5% a year between 2000 and 2004. Over the forecast period, population growth will average 0.5% a year. The population will rise from 8
R/ECON July 2001 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE
R/ECON July 2001 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE FORECAST OF JULY 2001 NEW JERSEY each year. The R/ECONTM forecast for New Jersey looks for growth in real output of 2.6 percent years. Over the forecast period, both the construction and manufacturing sectors will lose jobs
R/ECON April 2001 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE
R/ECON April 2001 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE FORECAST OF APRIL 2001 NEW JERSEY and 2005, and by an average of 43,000 thereafter (from 2005 to 2020). The R/ECONTM forecast for New Jersey.6 percent a year over the rest of the forecast period. Personal income will rise 5.6 percent this year, down
R/ECON October 1999 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE
R/ECON October 1999 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE FORECAST OF OCTOBER 1999 NEW JERSEY the rate of inflation should remain under 3% a year. (See Table 1.) #12;Throughout the forecast period and wage growth slow later in the forecast period, income growth will average 4.8% a year between 2000
Does increasing model stratospheric resolution improve extended range forecast skill?
Does increasing model stratospheric resolution improve extended range forecast skill? Greg Roff,1 forecast skill at high Southern latitudes is explored. Ensemble forecasts are made for two model configurations that differ only in vertical resolution above 100 hPa. An ensemble of twelve 30day forecasts
PRELIMINARY CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 2012-2022 AUGUST 2011 CEC-200-2011-011-SD CALIFORNIA or adequacy of the information in this report. #12;i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The staff demand forecast forecast. Bryan Alcorn and Mehrzad Soltani Nia prepared the industrial forecast. Miguel Garcia- Cerrutti
R/ECON December 1998 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE
R/ECON December 1998 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE FORECAST OF DECEMBER 1998 NEW 1997 will continue-- though at a reduced rate--through the forecast period that ends in 2001. New inflation of about 1.5%. In 1998, R/ECONTM forecasts that employment will rise by 76,000 jobs, or 2
R/ECON October 2000 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE
R/ECON October 2000 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE FORECAST OF OCTOBER 2000 NEW JERSEY and 2002, with 84,800 jobs being added over the two-year period. The R/ECON TM forecast for New Jersey the rest of the forecast period as foreign immigration declines and the population ages. In the next 10
R/ECON July 1999 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE
R/ECON July 1999 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE FORECAST OF JULY 1999 NEW JERSEY forecast for New Jersey is for a continuing but slowing expansion. (See Table 1.) In 1998, employment rose increased by 0.7% in 1998. It will slow a bit over the forecast period as foreign immigration declines. #12
Atmospheric Lagrangian coherent structures considering unresolved turbulence and forecast uncertainty
Atmospheric Lagrangian coherent structures considering unresolved turbulence and forecast, the uncertainty of the forecast FTLE fields is analyzed using ensemble forecasting. Unavoidable errors of the forecast velocity data due to the chaotic dynamics of the atmosphere is the salient reason for errors
Ross, Shane
A New Measure of Earnings Forecast Uncertainty Xuguang Sheng
A New Measure of Earnings Forecast Uncertainty Xuguang Sheng American University Washington, D of earnings forecast uncertainty as the sum of dispersion among analysts and the variance of mean forecast available to analysts at the time they make their forecasts. Hence, it alleviates some of the limitations
Kim, Kiho
AN ANALYSIS OF FORECAST BASED REORDER POINT POLICIES : THE BENEFIT OF USING FORECASTS Mohamed Zied Ch^atenay-Malabry Cedex, France Abstract: In this paper, we analyze forecast based inventory control policies for a non-stationary demand. We assume that forecasts and the associated uncertainties are given
Time dependent Directional Profit Model for Financial Time Series Forecasting
Time dependent Directional Profit Model for Financial Time Series Forecasting Jingtao YAO Chew email@example.com Abstract Goodnessoffit is the most popular criterion for neural network time series forecasting. In the context of financial time series forecasting, we are not only concerned at how good the forecasts fit
Yao, JingTao
A Study on Training Criteria for Financial Time Series Forecasting
A Study on Training Criteria for Financial Time Series Forecasting JingTao YAO Dept of Information on goodness-of-fit which is also the most popular criterion forecasting. How ever, in the context of financial time series forecasting, we are not only concerned at how good the forecasts fit their target. In order
A new class of hybrid models for time series forecasting
Applying quantitative models for forecasting and assisting investment decision making has become more indispensable in business practices than ever before. Improving forecasting especially time series forecasting accuracy is an important yet often difficult ... Keywords: Artificial neural networks (ANNs), Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Hybrid models, Probabilistic neural networks (PNNs), Time series forecasting
Mehdi Khashei; Mehdi Bijari
Distribution of Wind Power Forecasting Errors from Operational Systems (Presentation)
This presentation offers new data and statistical analysis of wind power forecasting errors in operational systems.
Hodge, B. M.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.
Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting (Presentation)
This presentation proposes a suite of metrics for evaluating the performance of solar power forecasting.
Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H.; Banunarayanan, V.
Irrigation water demand forecasting: a data pre-processing and data mining approach based on spatio-temporal data
World population is increasing at a fast rate resulting in huge pressure on limited water resources. Just about 3% of the earth's total water is freshwater that can be used for various applications including irrigation. Therefore, an efficient irrigation ... Keywords: data mining, data pre-processing, decision support system, decision tree, demand forecasting, water management
Mahmood A. Khan, Zahidul Islam, Mohsin Hafeez
New results in forecasting of photovoltaic systems output based on solar radiation forecasting
Accurate short term forecasting of photovoltaic (PV) systems output has a great significance for fast development of PV parks in South-East Europe
Laurentiu Fara
Taiwanese 3G mobile phone demand forecasting by SVR with hybrid evolutionary algorithms
Taiwan is one of the countries with higher mobile phone penetration rate in the world, along with the increasing maturity of 3G relevant products, the establishments of base stations, and updating regulations of 3G mobile phones, 3G mobile phones are ... Keywords: Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), Demand forecasting, General regression neural networks (GRNN), Genetic algorithm-simulated annealing (GA-SA), Support vector regression (SVR), Third generation (3G) mobile phone
Wei-Chiang Hong; Yucheng Dong; Li-Yueh Chen; Chien-Yuan Lai
Modeling and Analysis Papers> Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation>Tables Modeling and Analysis Papers> Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation>Tables Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Actual vs. Forecasts Available formats Excel (.xls) for printable spreadsheet data (Microsoft Excel required) MS Excel Viewer PDF (Acrobat Reader required Download Acrobat Reader ) Adobe Acrobat Reader Logo Table 2. Total Energy Consumption Excel, PDF Table 3. Total Petroleum Consumption Excel, PDF Table 4. Total Natural Gas Consumption Excel, PDF Table 5. Total Coal Consumption Excel, PDF Table 6. Total Electricity Sales Excel, PDF Table 7. Crude Oil Production Excel, PDF Table 8. Natural Gas Production Excel, PDF Table 9. Coal Production Excel, PDF Table 10. Net Petroleum Imports Excel, PDF Table 11. Net Natural Gas Imports Excel, PDF
Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation 2004
2004 2004 * The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) has produced annual evaluations of the accuracy of the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on the prior year by adding the projections from the most recent AEO and replacing the historical year of data with the most recent. The forecast evaluation examines the accuracy of AEO forecasts dating back to AEO82 by calculating the average absolute percent errors for several of the major variables for AEO82 through AEO2004. (There is no report titled Annual Energy Outlook 1988 due to a change in the naming convention of the AEOs.) The average absolute percent error is the simple mean of the absolute values of the percentage difference between the Reference Case projection and the
energy data + forecasting | OpenEI Community
energy data + forecasting energy data + forecasting Home FRED Description: Free Energy Database Tool on OpenEI This is an open source platform for assisting energy decision makers and policy makers in formulating policies and energy plans based on easy to use forecasting tools, visualizations, sankey diagrams, and open data. The platform will live on OpenEI and this community was established to initiate discussion around continuous development of this tool, integrating it with new datasets, and connecting with the community of users who will want to contribute data to the tool and use the tool for planning purposes. Links: FRED beta demo energy data + forecasting Syndicate content 429 Throttled (bot load) Error 429 Throttled (bot load) Throttled (bot load) Guru Meditation: XID: 2084382122
Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation 2005
Forecast Evaluation 2005 Forecast Evaluation 2005 Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation 2005 Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation 2005 * Then Energy Information Administration (EIA) produces projections of energy supply and demand each year in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO). The projections in the AEO are not statements of what will happen but of what might happen, given the assumptions and methodologies used. The projections are business-as-usual trend projections, given known technology, technological and demographic trends, and current laws and regulations. Thus, they provide a policy-neutral reference case that can be used to analyze policy initiatives. EIA does not propose or advocate future legislative and regulatory changes. All laws are assumed to remain as currently enacted; however, the impacts of emerging regulatory changes, when defined, are reflected.
Artificial Skill and Validation in Meteorological Forecasting
The results of a simulation study of multiple regression prediction models for meteorological forecasting are reported. The effects of sample size, amount, and severity of nonrepresentative data in the population, inclusion of noninformative ...
Paul W. Mielke Jr.; Kenneth J. Berry; Christopher W. Landsea; William M. Gray
Skill of Multimodel ENSO Probability Forecasts
The cross-validated hindcast skills of various multimodel ensemble combination strategies are compared for probabilistic predictions of monthly SST anomalies in the ENSO-related Ni�o-3.4 region of the tropical Pacific Ocean. Forecast data from ...
Michael K. Tippett; Anthony G. Barnston
Assessing Forecast Skill through Cross Validation
This study explains the method of cross validation for assessing forecast skill of empirical prediction models. Cross validation provides a relatively accurate measure of an empirical procedure's ability to produce a useful prediction rule from a ...
J. B. Elsner; C. P. Schmertmann
Ensemble Forecast of a Typhoon Flood Event
A high-resolution nested regional spectral model and an ensemble prediction system are combined to forecast the track, intensity, and flooding precipitation arising from Typhoon Winnie of August 1997, which eventually reached supertyphoon status. ...
Brian P. Mackey; T. N. Krishnamurti
Potential Economic Value of Seasonal Hurricane Forecasts
This paper explores the potential utility of seasonal Atlantic hurricane forecasts to a hypothetical property insurance firm whose insured properties are broadly distributed along the U.S. Gulf and East Coasts. Using a recently developed hurricane ...
Kerry Emanuel; Fabian Fondriest; James Kossin
Airborne Volcanic Ash Forecast Area Reliability
In support of aircraft flight safety operations, daily comparisons between modeled, hypothetical, volcanic ash plumes calculated with meteorological forecasts and analyses were made over a 1.5-yr period. The Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian ...
Barbara J. B. Stunder; Jerome L. Heffter; Roland R. Draxler
River flow forecasting with constructive neural network
In utilities using a mixture of hydroelectric and non-hydroelectric power, the economics of the hydroelectric plants depend upon the reservoir height and the inflow into the reservoir for several months into the future. Accurate forecasts of reservoir ...
M�user Valen�a; Teresa Ludermir; Anelle Valen�a
Forecast verification: Its Complexity and Dimensionality
Two fundamental characteristics of forecast verification problems�complexity and dimensionality�are described. To develop quantitative definitions of these characteristics, a general framework for the problem of absolute verification (AV) is ...
Consensus Forecasts of Modeled Wave Parameters
The use of numerical guidance has become integral to the process of modern weather forecasting. Using various techniques, postprocessing of numerical model output has been shown to mitigate some of the deficiencies of these models, producing more ...
Tom H. Durrant; Frank Woodcock; Diana J. M. Greenslade
Dynamical Properties of Model Output Statistics Forecasts
The dynamical properties of forecasts corrected using model output statistics (MOS) schemes are explored, with emphasis on the respective role of model and initial condition uncertainties. Analytical and numerical investigations of low-order ...
S. Vannitsem; C. Nicolis
Scientific Verification of Deterministic River Stage Forecasts
One element of a complete verification system is the ability to determine why forecasts behave as they do. This paper describes and demonstrates an operationally feasible method for conducting this type of diagnostic verification analysis. ...
Edwin Welles; Soroosh Sorooshian
Hypothesis Tests for Evaluating Numerical Precipitation Forecasts
When evaluating differences between competing precipitation forecasts, formal hypothesis testing is rarely performed. This may be due to the difficulty in applying common tests given the spatial correlation of and non-normality of errors. ...
Thomas M. Hamill
The ENIAC Forecasts: A Re-creation
The numerical forecasts made in 1950 using the Electronic Numerical Integrator and Computer (ENIAC) paved the way for the remarkable advances that have been made over the past half-century in weather prediction and climate modeling. We review the ...
NCEP Dynamical Seasonal Forecast System 2000
The new National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) numerical seasonal forecast system is described in detail. The new system is aimed at a next-generation numerical seasonal prediction in which focus is placed on land processes, initial ...
Masao Kanamitsu; Arun Kumar; Hann-Ming Henry Juang; Jae-Kyung Schemm; Wanqui Wang; Fanglin Yang; Song-You Hong; Peitao Peng; Wilber Chen; Shrinivas Moorthi; Ming Ji
MM5 Contrail Forecasting in Alaska
The fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University�National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU�NCAR) Mesoscale Model (MM5) is being used for forecasting the atmospheric layers of aircraft condensation trail (contrail) formation. Contrail ...
Martin Stuefer; Xiande Meng; Gerd Wendler
Medium- and Long-Range Forecasting
In contrast to short and extended range forecasts, predictions for periods beyond 5 days use time-averaged, midtropospheric height fields as their primary guidance. As time ranges are increased to 3O- and 90-day outlooks, guidance increasingly ...
A. James Wagner
Dynamic Algorithm for Space Weather Forecasting System
We propose to develop a dynamic algorithm that intelligently analyzes existing solar weather data and constructs an increasingly more accurate equation/algorithm for predicting solar weather accurately in real time. This dynamic algorithm analyzes a wealth of data derived from scientific research and provides increasingly accurate solar forecasts. As the database of information grows over time, this algorithm perfects itself and reduces forecast uncertainties. This will provide a vastly more effective way of processing existing data for practical use in the public and private sectors. Specifically, we created an algorithm that stores data from several sources in a way that is useable, we created the ?dynamic algorithm? used for creating accurate/effective forecasts, and we have performed preliminary benchmarks on this algorithm. The preliminary benchmarks yield surprisingly effective results thus far?forecasts have been made 8-16 hours into the future with significant magnitude and trend accuracy, which is a vast improvement over current methods employed.
Fischer, Luke D.
Forecasting Resource Supply from Scarcity Rent Data
Forecasting Resource Supply from Scarcity Rent Data Speaker(s): Larry Dale Date: December 18, 2000 - 12:00pm Location: 90-3122 Seminar HostPoint of Contact: Diana Morris This talk...
Computer Generation of Marine Weather Forecast Text
MARWORDS is a natural language text generation system which has been developed to synthesize marine forecasts for the Davis Strait area in Northern Canada. It uses standard manually produced predictions of wind speed, air temperature, and other ...
E. Goldberg; R. Kittredge; A. Polgu�re
Forecast U.S. Distillate Stocks
EIA is not projecting a large recovery over the summer, but because refineries are forecast to run at high utilization rates, they may produce more distillate than expected and...
EIA lowers forecast for summer gasoline prices
EIA lowers forecast for summer gasoline prices U.S. gasoline prices are expected to be lower this summer than previously thought. The price for regular gasoline this summer is now...