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What Happens If The Peace Process Fails?
March 6, 2014 § Leave a comment
Bibi Netanyahu and the Israeli government have had the same two important decisions regarding the U.S. hanging over them for over a year, and they aren't going away. The first is whether to cooperate with the U.S. to the hilt on the peace process and agree to anything the Obama administration asks them to do. The second is whether to cooperate with the U.S. to the hilt on Iran and agree to refrain from striking Iran, which is a commitment that the Obama administration clearly seems to want. The question is, if Israel does not deliver on either of these issues to the fullest extent, what will the fallout be, and which one is the higher priority for the U.S.?
There's a lot of chatter recently about this being Israel's last chance for peace with the Palestinians along with dark warnings about what will happen if the talks break down. In an interview with Jeff Goldberg last week, President Obama spoke at length about what he thinks the negative ramifications will be. Echoing John Kerry, he said that demographics, settlement growth, and the possibility that Mahmoud Abbas will be gone from the scene in the near future make this the last best chance for a deal, and that should a deal not happen, Israel will face increasing isolation and the end of its status as both Jewish and democratic. He also warned of a decreased ability on the part of the U.S. to protect Israel in international institutions and from the growing hostility of the international community. Goldberg interpreted this last point as (in his words) "a veiled threat" which would suggest that the U.S. may at some point stop using its veto to shield Israel from unfavorable UN Security Council resolutions.
This comes on the heels of months of Israeli-perceived threats from Kerry, including his prediction of a third intifada if talks fail, his denouncement of Israel's military presence in the West Bank, and most recently his observation that efforts to boycott Israel are only growing. Never mind that none of these statements were threats but were rather predictions of how other actors will behave should the two state solution disappear; the important point is that Israeli leaders have interpreted these statements as a warning that the U.S. will abandon Israel should these talks not produce results. There is also the news that Israeli defense and intelligence officials have had visas to the U.S. denied at a much higher rate over the past year, which could be an effort to warn the Israeli government about what lies ahead should U.S. wishes be defied.
For whatever reason, there is much less talk – both here and in Israel – about what will happen to the relationship with the U.S. if Israel goes and strikes Iranian nuclear sites. This strikes me as strange for two reasons. First, I think that the possibility of this happening is at least 50% and yet there is a lot more speculation about Israel not doing its best to come to an agreement with the Palestinians. Second, I strongly believe that compared to a peace process failure, Israel defying U.S. wishes on Iran will be far more harmful to the relationship and will bring a higher degree of fallout.
I have always been clear in my belief that the consequences for Israel should the two state solution evaporate will be similar to what the White House describes: isolation, boycotts, and a far more difficult dance on maintaining Israel's democratic character along with a Jewish majority. I am not quite sure that this is the absolute last opportunity, but were I the prime minister of Israel, I would be making plans for a unilateral withdrawal from the West Bank in the eventuality that a deal cannot be reached. But that is another post for another day; the main point here is that should the talks fail, I do not think that the consequences from the U.S. will be much to fear. For starters, this show is not new. The Israelis and Palestinians have spent decades talking to each other or not talking to each other, all to no result, and the American-Israeli relationship has proceeded apace with no real ruptures. If these talks fail despite intense American intervention, it will be no different than Camp David, Wye River, Taba, the vaunted road map…you get the point. The U.S. and Israel have a long history of getting over peace process failures no matter if the administration puts the onus on Israel or on the Palestinians, and I suspect this time will be no different. The U.S. interest in getting this resolved has not grown more than it was under Clinton, and the damage to the U.S. should the talks fail does not present a vital threat. Furthermore, the peace process requires not just Israeli acquiescence but Palestinian acquiescence as well, and if reports are to be believed, the Palestinians have no intention of acceding to the security plan formulated by the U.S. and General John Allen. What this means is that if the Palestinian side is intransigent to a larger degree than the Israeli side (and so far reports indicate that to be the case), any failure will not be pinned on Israel. So for a number of reasons, this Israeli fear of a rupture is far-fetched. This is not an attempt to provide an excuse for Israel not to make a deal, since I think that Israel should agree to any and every U.S. request if it means getting an actual permanent agreement, but just an observation that the global consequences of failure will be a lot harsher than those emanating from the U.S.
In contrast, I think that Israel might want to tread more carefully when it comes to Iran, because an Israeli strike will be harder than a half-hearted peace process negotiation effort for the U.S. to shrug off. For one thing, there is not much recent history of Israel carrying out military operations that will clearly upset the U.S. and thus less of a history of getting over it for Israel to draw upon. Two examples would be the Suez crisis in 1956 and the bombing of the Osirak reactor in 1981, but neither of those are truly comparable. On Suez, Israel was operating in conjunction with Britain and France, which blunted the reaction as Israel was not seen as a sole rogue party, and on Osirak, Iraq was not viewed as such a vital interest for the U.S. and it did not embroil the U.S. in any messy aftermath. In the case of a hypothetical future Israeli strike on Iran, these conditions do not apply. Israel will be doing it alone, in defiance of U.S. wishes ahead of time, and it will affect what is likely the number one American foreign policy goal at the moment, which is a nuclear deal with Iran that leads to a more general rapprochement. Not to mention that many will view the U.S. as somehow complicit, and there is a chance of blowback directed against U.S. interests in the region. Also in contrast to the Palestinian issue, there will be no other party to blame; if things get hairy afterwards, Israel cannot share the burden of blame with someone else. It will not blow up the U.S.-Israel relationship, which is far too institutionalized and based on public affinity, but I can imagine a variety of unpleasant consequences, such as arms shipments being halted, intelligence and security cooperation suffering, the visa situation becoming even more difficult, etc.
I fully recognize that in Netanyahu's eyes, these situations are not equal. Iran targets Israel in a variety of ways, with the seizure of the ship carrying missiles yesterday as just the latest exhibit in a mountain of evidence. Bibi views Iran as an existential threat whereas he views the Palestinian issue as one that can be managed. I disagree with his assessment, but it being what it is, his motivation and incentive structure is likely to go it alone on Iran. If Israel does that, however, it should at least factor in the costs of defying the U.S. and not assume that everything will be copacetic in the aftermath.
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Israel Lobby Truthers And The Truth About The Israel Lobby
October 31, 2013 § 11 Comments
The all-powerful and nefarious Israel lobby is in the news again. On Tuesday, the White House briefed officials from the Israel lobby Legion of Doom – AIPAC, the American Jewish Committee, the Anti-Defamation League, and the Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations – on efforts to halt Iran's nuclear program, with the real aim being to get pro-Israel groups on board with the effort not to impose new sanctions on Iran. In the administration's view, the tough sanctions that have been imposed accomplished the task of getting Iran to the negotiating table, and now that Iran appears ready to talk, even more sanctions will be counterproductive by spurring Iran to make a reinforced push to go nuclear. On the other side is Congress, where the overwhelming view is that biting sanctions are the only reason that Iran agreed to negotiate at all, and now is the time to ramp up pressure in order to force Iran into a deal rather than allowing the Iranian government to use negotiations as a mechanism for running out the clock. So far, pro-Israel groups appear to be leaning toward Congress's view of things, and Tuesday's meeting was part of the White House's strategy for getting Congress to hold off.
Naturally, the fact that Jewish and pro-Israel groups received a private NSC briefing on Iran has a bunch of people up in arms about the Israel lobby wielding inappropriately outsized power, and a bunch of more unreasonable people raging about Jews controlling U.S. foreign policy. For Mondoweiss, the meeting is the latest datapoint for the proposition that Jews and the Israel lobby are the groups that count the most in foreign policy and that pro-Israel rightwing hawks drive U.S. policy in the Middle East. There is little question that pro-Israel groups are influential and that AIPAC is extremely successful, but where the argument breaks down is when it gets taken to Walt and Mearsheimer proportions, i.e. that pro-Israel groups are able to push the U.S. government into doing things it would not otherwise do or that pro-Israel groups are able to control outcomes in Congress. Max Fisher yesterday compared the lobbying efforts to strike Syria and the lobbying efforts to capture African warlord Joseph Kony and noted that the "all-powerful lobby narrative" does not stand up to the evidence at hand. I'll quote Fisher directly on the section on AIPAC:
If the conventional wisdom about lobbying and U.S. foreign policy were true, we would expect Obama to have received wide support for his Syria plan and basically zero support for the Central African hunt for Kony. But that's the opposite of how it turned out.
In mid-September, as President Obama pushed to get Congress's support for Syria strikes, his administration turned to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee. If you've spent any time at all working on Israeli issues, Palestinian issues or MidEast issues generally, you've heard people on all ideological ends of the spectrum speak in hushed tones about the awesome power of AIPAC. Critics of the right-leaning, pro-Israel group often refer to it simply as "The Lobby," as if it were so powerful that other lobbyist organizations hardly even mattered. It's not considered especially controversial to suggest that the group plays a major role in shaping U.S. policy toward the Middle East.
AIPAC's influence is thought to be strongest in Congress, where support for pro-Israeli policies is indeed bipartisan and passionately held. Its membership is thought to include lots of Washington power-brokers and heavy-hitters, the types who, in the common telling, pull all the hidden levers of American governance and foreign policy. So when AIPAC began lobbying on behalf of Obama's Syria strike plan, many assumed it was a done deal, particularly since the administration most needed help in Congress, turf AIPAC knows well.
There is every indication that AIPAC threw its full weight into generating support for Obama's Syria plan, both in Congress and among its own constituency. But the group failed utterly to even move the needle on the policy: Congress only strengthened its opposition to Obama's Syria strikes. It was a rare public test of AIPAC's ability to shape U.S. foreign policy and it flunked.
As Fisher then goes on to explain, the lobbying campaign to go after Kony was carried out by underfunded, inexperienced, not well connected lobbyists who targeted high school and college students, a group not exactly known for its power and influence. Yet the Kony campaign succeeded to the point where the U.S. military is currently engaged in what has been a fruitless search to locate Kony, backed by Congressional support that has not wavered. How to explain this conundrum? Fisher suggests that public opinion may be the answer, but I'll take it one step further: public opinion is absolutely the answer, particularly when it comes to AIPAC. Pro-Israel groups succeed when the cause they are championing is already popular, and they fail when it isn't. Yes, AIPAC is very-well connected, pro-Israel groups get courted, and even get benefits – such as private briefings – that other groups do not get. But let's take a look at why support for increased sanctions are running so high in Congress and why the White House campaign to keep them steady is going to fail (hint: it has nothing to do with what AIPAC does or does not want).
In mid-September, Gallup did a poll asking whether Americans consider Iran to be an ally, friendly, unfriendly, or an enemy. 45% of respondents categorized Iran as an enemy and 38% said Iran is unfriendly. In early June, a CBS/NYT poll found that 58% of respondents favored military action against Iran to prevent it from developing a nuclear weapon while 37% opposed it. In March, Pew asked people which was more important: preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons even if it means taking military action, or avoiding military conflict with Iran even if it means that Iran develops a nuclear weapon, and 64% favored military action vs. 25% who wanted to avoid military conflict. Finally, in the most recent poll that asked about sanctions, which was from March 2012 (after the first round of sanctions had already been put in place), 74% were in favor of increasing sanctions against Iran while 21% were not. (All of the polls can be found here). Given Iran's recent outreach efforts following Rouhani's election, it is very possible that a poll taken today would find that support for increasing sanctions is below that 74% number, but I doubt it's down in a significant way given the current numbers viewing Iran as hostile. The point here is that AIPAC does not need to do much lobbying of Congress to get it to support increased sanctions, because this is a policy that is overwhelmingly popular. The idea that Congress would be marching in lockstep with the White House's foreign policy preferences on this issue were it not for the covert whisperings of Howard Kohr and Abe Foxman is simply nonsense and intellectual laziness. When AIPAC's preferences align with public opinion, it is successful; when its preferences go against public opinion, it's not. It is really that simple, and if you want a lot more on this, go read my (unfortunately paywalled) peer-reviewed article in Security Studies on this very subject, complete with case studies and everything (link is here).
The irony of this is that Walt and Mearsheimer's book and the loud insistence of Israel lobby truthers that AIPAC controls U.S. policy in the Middle East has, more than anything else, enhanced the power of pro-Israel groups by convincing a growing number of people that the mistaken perception is actually true. This in turn leads to government officials believing the hype, and thus you get the ADL and AJC invited to a private briefing at the White House out of a belief that these groups have far more power than they actually do. The bottom line is that Congress in this instance is going to do what public opinion tells it to do, and the Israel lobby's preference that Iran sanctions be increased is not what is driving policy here in any real way.
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The Other Dark Side Of Energy Independence
May 1, 2013 § 7 Comments
Ben Alter (who has done yeoman's work editing the last couple of pieces I've written for Foreign Affairs) and Ed Fishman wrote an insightful op-ed for the New York Times this past Sunday in which they argued that American energy independence – which may be a reality by the end of the next decade – will have a downside too, which is that it will lead to massive destabilization in states that rely on high global energy prices. States like Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Bahrain depend on revenues from oil and natural gas to maintain to dole out patronage and co-opt the opposition, but the introduction of U.S. shale gas into the global marketplace will lower energy prices worldwide, and Alter and Fishman argue that it will create domestic unrest and even regime change in petrostates, which will in turn put shipping lanes in harm's way, endanger counterterrorism cooperation and efforts to deal with Iran between the U.S. and Arab Gulf monarchies, and force Russia into a more aggressive and territorial foreign policy. The upshot here is that energy independence will not allow the U.S. to withdraw from the world as it is no longer dependent on Middle Eastern oil producing states, but rather the U.S. will still have to act as the liberal hegemon guaranteeing the safety of global trade, maintaining great power stability, and working to spread democracy so that the international system remains relatively stable.
Writing in Forbes in response, Christopher Helman says that Alter and Fishman baked a faulty assumption into their argument since the price of oil will never get as low as $50 a barrel (and he accuses them of taking liberties with the report that they presumably cite), and that even if the global price did hit that floor, it wouldn't remain there as unrest in petrostates would cause global prices to skyrocket once more. Another scenario is that OPEC states would cut their production in order to inflate prices back up to $90-$100 per barrel in order to maintain their current levels of government spending. While this criticism may be accurate, Helman is misreading the important takeaway from Alter and Fishman's piece, which is that there are unintended consequences that emanate from even what appear to be the rosiest of scenarios. In short, U.S. energy independence and lower energy prices will be a great development for the U.S. in many respects, but it will also create a host of negative externalities that will require the U.S. to stay on its toes.
While reading the Alter/Fishman piece, I couldn't help but think about how their argument applies to Iran and the question of whether a nuclear arms race in the Middle East will ensue should Iran achieve nuclear status. There is a wide-ranging debate over whether this scenario is a realistic one, with no less than President Obama (and thus presumably the CIA and other U.S. intelligence agencies) warning that a nuclear Iran will set off a regional nuclear arms race, and analysts such as my close friend Steven Cook arguing that nuclear dominoes will not fall in the Middle East as Turkey, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia either don't have the scientific capability and infrastructure or the cash on hand to build their own bombs. I do not claim to have any expertise in this area at all, and Steven certainly knows his stuff, but let's assume for a moment that of these three candidates, Saudi Arabia could conceivably go nuclear given that the Saudis have the cash to buy the technology and build the infrastructure they would need in a hurry. Let's also assume that Alter and Fishman's predictions unfold, and U.S. energy independence destabilizes Saudi Arabia in fifteen years and leads to the fall of the ruling family and the government. Isn't this in many ways the ultimate nightmare scenario – not that the current governments in the Middle East will become nuclear powers, but that whomever or whatever replaces them will be nuclear powers?
Anyone who knows anything about U.S. foreign and defense policy knows that the most pressing problem facing the U.S. right now is not the rise of China or the fight against al-Qaida. It is the possibility that the Pakistani government will fall and that Pakistan's nuclear weapons will be taken over by extremists. Only slightly less worrisome is that the lax command and control structure that exists for Pakistan's nuclear stockpile – and for those who don't pay close attention to these things, it turns out that the Pakistani government moves its nukes in and out of traffic in barely guarded civilian vans so that we won't steal them – will lead to a nuke being stolen or even accidentally launched. This is the reason that the U.S. keeps on propping up the Pakistani government and throwing money into a Pakistani black hole despite mountains of evidence that Pakistan is not our ally and actually works to undermine the U.S. in Afghanistan and other places.
Now let's replicate this situation in Iran, or Saudi Arabia, or any other slightly shaky Middle Eastern state that may be inclined to try and acquire nuclear weapons in response to Iran, and that later falls due to the instability unleashed by the Arab Spring or the instability unleashed by falling oil prices. Or imagine the nightmare that we would be dealing with right now in Syria if Israel had not bombed the Syrian reactor a few years ago and Syria had somehow made a successful mad dash for a nuke, and that instead of worrying about missing Syrian chemical weapons, we were worrying about missing Syrian nuclear weapons. I am not someone who worries about the current Iranian regime actually using a nuke should it develop the capability to build one – although I do worry about the cascade effects of Iran having the bomb and thus making its support for international terrorism and groups like Hizballah largely untouchable – but I certainly worry enormously about what would happen to an Iranian nuke in the chaos following the current regime falling, or a Saudi nuke in the chaos of the monarchy falling. Maybe I have missed the conversation on this issue, which would be understandable since I am not a nuclear policy person, but shouldn't the conversation surrounding Iran and its nuclear program be a little more focused on the Pakistanization of this problem in a regional context when energy prices fall rather than solely on whether the Iranian regime can be trusted not to nuke Tel Aviv?
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The National Security Impact Of The Likud Primary
November 27, 2012 § 3 Comments
On Sunday and Monday, Likud party members got to vote in the Likud primary and choose the list that will stand for Knesset elections in January, and what emerged was the most rightwing Likud in the party's history. The Likud list is a catalogue of the most strident and hardline voices in the party, with Danny Danon in the 6th spot, Zeev Elkin in 9th, Yariv Levin in 10th, Tzipi Hotovely in 13th, and Moshe Feiglin – who is Bibi Netanyahu's main intra-party challenger from his right and is not even currently an MK – in 15th. Regular O&Z readers will recognize all of these names, as their exploits make regular appearances on this blog, but in case you need a refresher, Noam Sheizaf has a rundown of their greatest hits. In addition, because of the deal with Yisrael Beiteinu that created the joint list with Likud, it is unlikely that anyone lower than 20th on the list is going to make it into the Knesset, which means that Likud princes and moderates such as Dan Meridor, Benny Begin, and Mickey Eitan are going to lose their jobs as MKs. To get a sense of just how remarkable this is, not only are Begin and Meridor currently Knesset members, they are both ministers and members of the nine person security cabinet, and yet Likud voters just unceremoniously showed them the door. This is not just a changing of the guard from the old to the new, but a serious step to the right. If there was any doubt left that Likud is first and foremost a settler party, it has just been erased.
Plenty of people will spend the next couple of days bemoaning the state of Israeli politics and noting that a Likud government in which someone like Danny Danon might actually be a minister is going to double down on settlements and treat the peace process like a relic from a bygone era. This is all true, and in my humble opinion it's a terrible development for Israel, but I am not here to state the glaringly obvious. Instead, I'd like to think through the impact of the new Likud makeup on Israel's defense policy outside of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
The immediate result is going to be the involuntary hiatus of Ehud Barak, who announced yesterday that he was quitting politics and would not stand for election in January. While I found the timing of this announcement strange given that Barak's Atzmaut party, which had been polling at zero Knesset seats, had rebounded in the aftermath of Operation Pillar of Cloud and was looking like it might return to the Knesset with the same five seats it currently has, a couple of smart observers of Israeli politics have convinced me that perhaps it makes sense given the humiliation involved for a former PM barely crossing the Knesset threshold. Amir Mizroch and Robert Danin argue that in resigning, Barak is actually plotting a course to remain as defense minister since he will be viewed as the indispensable general whom Netanyahu will have no choice but to reappoint, and the fact that he is not a member of Knesset will free from him any political constraints. I think it's quite plausible that this was Barak's plan yesterday morning and that he may even have been able to pull it off, but he did not count on the events of the afternoon and evening. MKs like Danon and Elkin absolutely detest Barak with every fiber of their being because they have long viewed him as the primary hurdle standing between them and unfettered settlement growth, and now that they essentially control the party, Netanyahu is not going to have the political space to keep Barak as his defense minister. Doing so will cause a riot within Likud and open Netanyahu up to a serious challenge from Feiglin or from his old nemesis (and Washington Generals-type foil) Silvan Shalom, and Bibi is not going to risk that. Instead, I think the Likud primary has guaranteed that Bogie Ya'alon becomes the next defense minister, which also puts him in the pole position to be the next Likud leader once Netanyahu decides to leave the scene.
Aside from silencing Barak and removing his all-encompassing control of Israeli defense policy, I think the new Likud list also makes an Israeli strike on Iran a lot more likely. I have been continuously arguing that one of the primary constraints on an Israeli strike is the makeup of the security cabinet, where four out of the nine members have been unwaveringly opposed to unilateral military action against Iran. Two out of those four are Begin and Meridor, who are now going to be out of the group, and they will almost certainly be replaced by ministers who are more hawkish. The third of the four is Ya'alon, who badly wants to be defense minister and who knows that the post is a potential stepping stone to eventually becoming prime minister. The fact that the defense portfolio is now going to be open might be enough incentive for him to quietly acquiesce to Netanyahu's plans on Iran in order to get the appointment that he seeks, in which case the security cabinet flips from being divided down the middle to being nearly unanimous in favor of a strike. That does not make a war with Iran a fait accompli, but it does bring the possibility ever closer. One month ago in arguing that the Netanyahu-Lieberman deal was not going to affect the Iran calculus, I noted that "the math in the security cabinet does not change substantially unless Begin, Meridor, and Ya'alon are all excised." As it turns out, the result of this week's Likud primary means that the math has now changed, and the impact on Israeli defense policy might be even greater than the impact on Israeli domestic politics.
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The Big Picture In Gaza
November 19, 2012 § 7 Comments
Since my focus last week was mostly on the particulars of the fighting between Israel and Hamas, I thought I'd try and take a step back and look at some of the larger issues at play here, both present and future. Today's post is really three condensed into one, and I might expand on some or all of these at length later this week, but it is useful for me to think out loud a bit here and assess what I have been right about, what I have been wrong about, and try and figure out where this whole thing will lead.
First up is Turkey. I noted Turkey's initial silence over Operation Pillar of Cloud last week, and argued that we should expect to see a tempered response from Turkey and one that is driven by Egypt more than anything else going forward. It looks like one of those predictions was correct, and it wasn't the one about a tempered response. It took him a couple of days, but Prime Minister Erdoğan opened up on Israel with both barrels on Friday, calling Israel barbaric, accusing Prime Minister Netanyahu of bombing Gaza for "fabricated reasons," and bringing back his old charge that Israel knows how to kill children very well. As I wrote last week, I expected a Turkish response but I thought it would be a quieter one. I think my analysis was actually correct – and let me reiterate that it took Erdoğan two days to say a thing, which is as out of character as it gets – but what I wasn't thinking about was that at some point Erdoğan was going to feel the need to respond in a forceful way. Domestic politics and Turkey's past statements on Israel weren't going to let Erdoğan just sit this out, and I was too focused on the immediate short term rather than on the pressures that were going to build up the longer this went on. Nevertheless, Erdoğan so far has been deferring to Morsi and the Egyptians, and is sending Ahmet Davutoğlu to Gaza on Tuesday (in contrast to Morsi sending Egyptian PM Hesham Qandil last Friday) with a group of Arab foreign ministers. The point is that despite Erdoğan's verbal bombast, which I should have anticipated, Turkey is not at all out front on this but is content to be following the crowd, and that is significant.
Next topic is what this whole mess does to the prospects of a strike on Iranian nuclear facilities. I have argued for awhile that opposition from the cabinet, the IDF, and the Israeli public meant that a strike on Iran was not going to happen. I think this might now change for two reasons. First, the rockets from Gaza underscore the threat of missile attacks on Israel, and this is only enhanced by the fact that Hamas has obviously been supplied by Iran with Fajr-5 missiles capable of hitting Tel Aviv. If Iran is giving Fajr-5 missiles to Hamas, many Israelis are going to ask themselves whether the assumption that Iran would never supply Hamas with a nuclear missile is perhaps wishful thinking. It was much easier to not feel it necessary to launch a preemptive strike on Iran when there weren't Iranian missiles being launched at Israeli cities, and my hunch is that the Iranian component to this is going to make Israelis more hawkish on the subject and think about how crowding in stairwells and bomb shelters is one thing for poorly made rockets and a whole different can of worms for Iranian nuclear missiles. Second, when it comes to the security cabinet and the IDF top brass in particular, the reporting on the subject has left the distinct impression that many of the generals and perhaps Ehud Barak as well believe that Iran is rational in the sense of being deterrable and that Iran would never nuke Israel. The problem now is that Hamas is being pounded by the IDF and from a rational deterrence perspective should have ceased firing rockets long ago, but clearly hasn't got that message. The people who argue that extreme anti-Israel Islamist groups, irrespective of whether they are Sunni Palestinian nationalists or Shia Islamic revolutionaries, are irrational now have a pretty big datapoint in their favor and will be making their argument loudly and often, and I'd think this will have some effect on the upper echelons of the Israeli security establishment. My own view is that there are significant differences between Hamas and Iran that make a parallel comparison inapt, but the point is not what I think but what many Israelis will think after having gone through the experience of air raid sirens and rockets in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. Don't be surprised to see public opinion polls on a unilateral Israeli strike shift in the months ahead.
Saving the most important point for last, there is the question of what Israel hopes to gain long term from the current war with Hamas. The Israelis talk a lot about reestablishing deterrence, although it is certainly an open question whether deterrence in this case is long gone. Jeffrey Goldberg asked on Friday what Israel's long term strategy is here and argued that there is no way out militarily and that the only viable path is for Israel to demonstrate that it is serious about a two state solution. As it happens, I agree with this completely, but I also recognize that plenty of people find this argument to be naive. After all, Israel has withdrawn from Lebanon and from Gaza, and been met both times with rockets from Hizballah and Hamas. Furthermore, Hamas's stated goal is not a two state solution but the elimination of Israel, and thus settlements are really ancillary to the picture when it comes to Hamas. These are facts that are tough to get around, particularly in one blog post, so let me reframe this another way. In the last four decades, Israel went from dealing mainly with plane hijackings and stone throwing, to suicide bombs on buses and in pizzerias and hotels, to a constant stream of hundreds of rockets a year on southern Israel and now on Tel Aviv and Jerusalem as well. Over that same period, Israel went from dealing with a stateless and non-governmental Palestine Liberation Organization to a quasi-governmental Palestinian Authority with autonomy over certain areas of the West Bank to a terrorist Hamas controlling Gaza in its entirety, and despite the current military operation Israel is desperately hoping that Hamas does not fall because it is viewed as far more pragmatic than the other fanatical Islamist groups operating in Gaza. Despite Israel's massive military advantage, by any measure this is not a track record of long term success. It is rather a record of abysmal and abject failure. As awful as Hamas and rocket attacks are, the thrust of recent history suggests that whatever comes next will be that much worse. A new approach is needed that focuses on a political solution rather than a military one and anyone arguing otherwise is being willfully blind to the limits of what the IDF can reasonably accomplish.
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What Does Obama's Win Mean For Bibi?
November 7, 2012 § 5 Comments
As it became clear last night that President Obama was headed for an easy victory, a bunch of people on my twitter feed began speculating – or more accurately, making jokes – about what this would mean for Bibi Netanyahu. The joking actually turned into a serious conversation about whether Obama will somehow punish Netanyahu for his perceived support of Romney and clashes with the president, with some going so far as to speculate that he will tell Netanyahu that no help on Iran is forthcoming. It seems that Netanyahu is worried himself, as he is already clamping down on Likud members who are expressing negative reactions to Obama's reelection out of fear that it will damage his standing with the White House even further.
Despite what is obviously not a great relationship between the two men, I don't quite see how Obama's reelection is going to have much of a negative effect on Netanyahu or the U.S.-Israel relationship at large. This is true for a few reasons. First, as Steven Cook persuasively argued last month, the relationship is institutionalized to the point that personal animosity between the countries' leaders is not going to have much of an effect, if any. Let's assume that Obama decides this morning that he wants to put the screws on Netanyahu – what precisely is he going to do? Aid to Israel is controlled by Congress, the joint military and intelligence cooperation is so deeply ingrained that it would take a long time to reverse, and there are deep ties between the two countries at all levels of government, business, and society. There are smaller things that Obama could do on the margins, but the immediate consequences are close to zero.
Second, and I cannot stress this enough, if you think that the myriad of ways in which Obama supported Israel during his first term was just a feint to win an election, then you are falling victim to the same delusion that said Nate Silver and all of the polls predicting an Obama win were deliberately skewing the evidence. Quite simply, there is absolutely nothing to suggest that all of a sudden funding for Iron Dome, joint military exercises, vetoing of anti-Israel UN resolutions, and other similar actions are going to stop now that Obama doesn't have to worry about senior citizens' votes in Florida. I will bet any amount of money that there is no drop-off in the administration's support of Israel in the security and diplomatic spheres, and the folks who think otherwise have a large burden of proof to overcome that cannot be swept away merely by shouting "but he didn't visit Israel" or "he left Netanyahu waiting while he ate dinner with his family."
Third, Obama is not very popular among Israelis, and so even if he wanted to punish Netanyahu by trying to interfere in the Israeli election, it just wouldn't work. Bill Clinton might have been able to sway Israelis when he was president, but Obama does not have the popularity, credibility, or familiarity with Israeli voters to pull of such a move. The fact that Obama was reelected is not going to factor into Israelis' calculations when they go to the polls, as Brent Sasley helpfully pointed out previously. The idea that Netanyahu now has to be running scared because his hopes to have Romney elected did not pan out is a pretty flimsy one.
Finally, the suggestion that Obama is now going to tell Netanyahu that the U.S. has no interest in confronting Iran makes little sense to me based on previous U.S. actions and Obama's long record of statements indicating that he views an Iranian nuclear bomb as a real problem. Aside from Stuxnet, crippling sanctions, and an increased carrier presence in the Gulf, Obama has made clear that preventing nuclear proliferation is perhaps the foreign policy issue that he holds most dear. The disagreement between he and Netanyahu over the red line of nuclear capability vs. nuclear weapons is still going to be there, but Obama has held firm to his own timeline so far and he is not going to now somehow make it even more firm because he has been reelected. The bottom line here is that Obama is worried about an Iranian nuclear weapon as well, and he is not going to drop his concerns just because he and Netanyahu do not get along very well.
P.S. For another argument on why the Obama revenge meme is an ill-informed one that focuses on different variables than mine, check out Peter Beinart this morning.
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I Don't Think This Is About Iran, Redux
October 26, 2012 § 1 Comment
Building on my initial reaction yesterday to the new Likud Beiteinu party created by Bibi Netanyahu and Avigdor Lieberman, I have one more important point to add about why I think this deal happened. It seems to me that this was about domestic politics, plain and simple. Netanyahu was nervous about polls showing Likud's vote share slipping and Labor's rising, and Lieberman wanted to position himself to head his former party and not have Yisrael Beiteinu suffer the fate of so many other parties like Shinui or what is about to happen to Kadima. This way the two men were able to create the perception of a strong rightwing party that will be able to withstand any challengers and give an air of inevitability to Netanyahu remaining as prime minister and Likud Beiteinu creating the next governing coalition.
Aluf Benn thinks that something else is at work though, which is the creation of a war cabinet to strike Iran. He writes, "The merger with Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu party will dissolve any domestic opposition to the war, since after the election, Netanyahu will be able to argue that he received a mandate from the people to act as he sees fit. Ministers and top defense officials will have a hard time arguing with him. From now on, only American opposition is liable to delay, or even prevent, a command to the Israel Air Force to take off for Iran." He adds that Ehud Barak, Benny Begin, and Dan Meridor will be marginalized or pushed out completely and that Lieberman will push the cabinet into radical foreign policy positions that Netanyahu will no longer be able to disavow.
This analysis is plausible on its face, but I think there are a few problems with it. First, it's not enough to just declare absent compelling evidence that every move Netanyahu makes is with the intent of striking Iran. Plenty of people said the same thing when Netanyahu made the deal with Kadima despite the fact that Mofaz had been on record as opposing a strike, and obviously the short-lived unity government did not make any moves on the Iran front. Bibi's obsession with Iran is well documented, but he has other concerns as well, such as political survival and consolidating his position, and this seems so clearly aimed at doing just those things that I don't see why the simplest explanation here is not the right one.
Second, looking at what Benn actually argues, I don't think it is correct to assert de novo that this gives Netanyahu a mandate for anything. For that to occur, the new LB party has to win an unusually large number of seats and Netanyahu has to campaign specifically and primarily on the Iran issue. Netanyahu is probably counting on about 45 seats, which is roughly what you get from adding up where Likud and YB were in public opinion polls, but I think there is a significant chance that the number is less than that. Lieberman is a polarizing figure, to say the least, and he could easily scare away some Mizrachi and more religious Likud voters. It is also possible that Russian YB voters who were mainly voting for the party based on its advocacy for Russian olim will be disenchanted and feel that Lieberman has sold out their core interest in the pursuit of greater personal power. If that happens, then Netanyahu's alleged mandate is not going to be quite as strong as Benn predicts, and I don't quite understand why ministers and generals would have a hard time opposing him. Even if he does get 45 seats, that doesn't seem like it will all of a sudden cow Likud members like Meridor, Begin, and Bogie Ya'alon into reversing their positions, or convince the IDF leadership that their reservations on Iran have been wrong.
Third, there is the fact that, like Mofaz before him, Lieberman is not necessarily an Iran hawk. The reports are that he originally opposed a strike and was then convinced to change his position, but it's obviously not on the top of his agenda. Lieberman cares much more about undermining the Palestinan Authority and taking a hard line on peace process issues and territorial concessions, so if there is any foreign affairs implication from yesterday's announcement, it is that the two state solution is now even more endangered. Lieberman is going to take many radical positions; of that I have no doubt. The question is whether those positions will have anything to do with Iran, and I'm not sure that they will. He may support a strike, but he is not going to be strongly and constantly advocating one. The math in the security cabinet does not change substantially unless Begin, Meridor, and Ya'alon are all excised. One also must consider who the rest of the coalition is going to include, since 45 seats still means that Netanyahu is going to have to rope in Shas, where Eli Yishai is opposed to a strike, or one of the center or left parties, and Tzipi Livni, Yair Lapid, and Shelley Yachimovich are certainly not guaranteed to vote the way Netanyahu wants on Iran.
In looking at yesterday's merger, does it strengthen Netanyahu's hand by giving him a larger number of seats? Yup, it does. But he still has to contend with opposition in Likud, opposition in the IDF, opposition from other potential coalition partners, and opposition from the public. In short, aside from making generalizations about the prime minister's increased clout and murky electoral mandates, I don't see how this makes a strike on Iran a foregone conclusion by any means.


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Holman Christian Standard (CSB) | New International Version (NIV) |
1 The queen of Sheba heard of Solomon's fame, so she came to test Solomon with difficult questions at Jerusalem with a very large retinue, with camels bearing spices, gold in abundance, and precious stones. She came to Solomon and spoke with him about everything that was on her mind. | 1 When the queen of Sheba heard of Solomon's fame, she came to Jerusalem to test him with hard questions. Arriving with a very great caravan--with camels carrying spices, large quantities of gold, and precious stones--she came to Solomon and talked with him about all she had on her mind. |
Holman Christian Standard Bible ® Copyright © 2003, 2002, 2000, 1999 by Holman Bible Publishers. Used by permission. All rights reserved. (Holman Christian Standard Bible Online) | Scripture quoted by permission. Quotations designated (NIV) are from THE HOLY BIBLE: NEW INTERNATIONAL VERSION®. NIV®. Copyright © 1973, 1978, 1984 by Biblica. All rights reserved worldwide. (New International Version Bible Online) |

subset: commoncrawl


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Dark chocolate but it's colored green
from Pro Era (Ft. Capital STEEZ, Dessy Hinds & Nyck Caution) – Vinyls Lyrics on Genius
Steez likes "chocolate" cigarellos with "green" bud
ACCEPTED COMMENT: Coming from a Third Eye perspective he means that Weed is his Third Eye fuel because Chocolate is considered to be the strongest of Third Eye fuel. Each Chakra has there own fuel foods to help stimulate it.
To help improve the quality of the lyrics, visit "Vinyls" by Pro Era (Ft. Capital STEEZ, Dessy Hinds & Nyck Caution) Lyrics and leave a suggestion at the bottom of the page


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WEST HAM v Man City: Valon Behrami out with Jack Collison ruled out for rest of the year
Knee injury: Behrami will miss out for Zola's side Valon Behrami has been ruled out of West Ham's final match of the Barclays Premier League season against Manchester City. The Switzerland international twisted his knee in the defeat at Fulham and joins Herita Ilunga (thigh), Zavon Hines (ankle) and Jack Collison (knee) on the sidelines. West Ham manager Gianfranco Zola confirmed today that Collison faces nine months out after undergoing surgery to repair cartilage damage. Team (from): Green, Faubert, Upson, Da Costa, Spector, Noble, Parker, Kovac, Stanislas, Cole, Ilan, Stech, Kurucz, Gabbidon, Tomkins, Daprela, Spence, Boa Morte, Stanislas, Diamanti, Franco, Mido, McCarthy. CLICK HERE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND PREMIER LEAGUE TEAM NEWS
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The NCUA's online advertisement fill its Office of Minority and Women Inclusion director's position lists an annual salary range between $175K and $240K.
The federal regulator is honored by a human resources research firm.
CUNA Mutual's donation to World Council's Global Women's Leadership Network Scholarship will helps fund the contest, which includes trips to Australia.
Bargaining may be a key factor in achieving wage equality.
Studies indicate that companies with female board members experience stronger performance.
Executive Compensation Solutions' 2013 Survey said credit union pay gap exists across all asset classes.
Bargaining may be a key factor in achieving wage equality.
The credit union movement likes to brag that it's female friendly, but is the industry playing field equal?
Executive Compensation Solutions' annual survey says pay differential across all asset classes.
WOCCU's Global Women's Leadership Network launches initiative to get more women on credit union boards.


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Billings Public Schools have a long list of deferred maintenance needs for the 30 buildings that house the district's 15,600 K-12 students. This isn't news. Billings citizens have heard about school building needs for many years, even as school operating levies were defeated. The district provided an itemized list running several pages with estimated costs to Billings area lawmakers before the 2009 Legislature.
Altogether, the Billings Public Schools have an estimated $120 million in deferred maintenance. This list needs to be whittled down for the sake of both our children and local taxpayers. These projects aren't frivolous: We are talking about replacing old heating systems that are at risk of failing; replacing antiquated plumbing, worn-out roofs and windows that drain heat out of schools; repairing sidewalks and pavement; upgrading electrical and ventilation systems; and complying with handicap accessibility requirements. All of the projects involve safety, meeting life safety/building codes, preventing foreseeable disaster, enhancement of educational opportunities, energy conservation or a combination of these benefits.
Billings applications fail
Thus, it was disappointing to learn that the state Department of Commerce rejected the half-dozen applications that Billings Public Schools made in the first round of Quality Schools grants established by the 2009 Legislature. Five of the proposals would have improved energy efficiency and the comfort of students and staff in our schools; the sixth application was to replace a leaky section of the Castle Rock Middle School (730 students) roof that was installed when the school was built in 1979.
Superintendent Jack Copps raised valid concerns about Billings schools being shut out of these grants. It is concerning that Commerce Department officials, by their own admission, gave five of the Billings applications a zero score because the district didn't submit copies of its 2009 energy audit, a document that was referenced in the applications and that was previously submitted to the department. Moreover, the Commerce Department asked other districts for additional information after receiving their grant applications, yet didn't notify Billings Public Schools that its applications would fail without new copies of the energy audit.
The needs here are tremendous. A lot of good would come from fixing up our local schools.
School facility needs throughout Montana are great, too. According to a letter from Kelly Casillas, an administrator in the Department of Commerce in Helena, 135 applications requesting more than $75 million in grant money were received. The department selected 33 applications to receive a total of $10.6 million in grant money.
A $2.5 million statewide school facility condition inventory conducted at the direction of the December 2005 special legislative session and Gov. Brian Schweitzer identified $360 million in deferred maintenance in Montana public schools. The inventory was presented to the 2009 Legislature, which allocated only $10 million in state funds this biennium to address the $360 million problem.
Spending to save money
At a board meeting last week, Billings trustees, acting on the recommendation of their advisory committees, decided to consider taking a bond issue to voters, an issue that would allow the district to take advantage of zero-interest borrowing through a provision of the federal stimulus law. The community needs more information on this opportunity for funding school improvements before making a decision. However, trustees are wise to explore all reasonable options.
Earlier in this column, it was stated that school improvements benefit taxpayers. Here's one compelling example: Replacing failing, obsolete temperature control systems at Lincoln Center (home to the Senior Freshman Academy), Senior High (1,740 students), West High (1,950 students), Big Sky Elementary (420 students), Eagle Cliffs Elementary (400 students) and Skyview High (1,500 students) would save the district an estimated $139,000 annually in gas and electrical expenses, according to models derived from an energy audit. The cost of replacing control systems at the six facilities totals $763,000. The payback in energy savings is 5.48 years. That proposal was one of the losers in the state grant competition. The district today doesn't have the cash to do the work.
Let's keep those numbers in mind as school leaders prepare applications for the next round of state grants and trustees lead a community discussion of the possibility of a bond issue in a tough economy. Let this column serve as a strong message of support for efforts to repair and improve the facilities that serve our 15,600 Billings schoolchildren.


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Join CNET for an exclusive interview with Google Lunar XPrize teams
Five representatives from the finalist Milestone teams told us how they plan to get to the moon and win $30 million next year. Catch up on this exclusive CNET event.
With the release of iPhone 5, we look back at iPhone launches past, including all the tired but dedicated line-waiters.


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Accion, NYSE Euronext, And Yelp Bring The Big StartUp National Tour To Miami
On Thursday, October 11, the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE: NYX), Accion and Yelp will bring the NYSE Big StartUp "Small Business Connections: Marketing Meets Microfinancing" nationwide workshop tour to Miami. The event will provide local small business owners with two resources vital to growing any business: social media marketing know-how and access to capital. Miami marks the ninth stop on the Small Business Connections Tour.
Yelp and Accion staff will be present throughout the workshop to answer questions and offer personalized consultations to participants. Yelp's Manager of Local Business Outreach, Darnell Holloway, will discuss how entrepreneurs can work with major social media platforms to engage customers online and navigate online reviews. "We've touched over 300 business owners in 6 cities across the US and have been very impressed with the level of engagement we've seen from entrepreneurs eager to learn how they can navigate the sometimes overwhelming world of social media," said Holloway.
Loan Consultant, Marcia Maia, of small business lender Accion, which has provided over 2000 microloans in the Miami area since 1993, will explain how to access capital, training and finance marketing costs with an Accion small business loan. Accion client Alexander Smith of Swoop Miami will speak about how his $4,000 microloan to upgrade his website and call system helped impact his business. Noticing the lack of parking spots in South Beach, Smith launched a unique taxi service in 2009 that is free of charge and transports customers to local destinations. "We've been successful because of a combination of social media and word-of-mouth," said Smith. "The Small Business Connections event is a great opportunity for local small business owners to get direct feedback from well established companies like Yelp."
"Small Business Connections" is the first small business event tour from the NYSE Big StartUp, a nationwide job creation and business growth initiative that connects small businesses with established corporations, such as Yelp. Launched in March 2012, the NYSE Big StartUp program also integrates the Accion-NYSE Job Growth Fund. This program was started with a $1.5 million commitment by NYSE Euronext, which will provide small businesses and startups with the capital and support they need to grow.
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My Profile
Helena, Alabama
Member since Oct 2007
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Reviewed Mexican Cornbread
Nov 26, 2012 in Food Network Community Toolbox on FoodNetwork.com
"Waaaaay too much baking powder... so much you could clearly taste it even over the jalapenos and I used two three inch peppers. I'll look for a different recipe next time.""


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Weymouth New Testament (WNT) | New International Version (NIV) |
1 After this Jesus moved from place to place in Galilee. He would not go about in Judaea, because the Jews were seeking an opportunity to kill Him. | 1 After this, Jesus went around in Galilee, purposely staying away from Judea because the Jews there were waiting to take his life. |
The Weymouth New Testament is in the public domain. (Weymouth New Testament - Holy Bible ) | Scripture quoted by permission. Quotations designated (NIV) are from THE HOLY BIBLE: NEW INTERNATIONAL VERSION®. NIV®. Copyright © 1973, 1978, 1984 by Biblica. All rights reserved worldwide. (New International Version Bible Online) |


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Thank you for visiting Chiropractic Health Care Associates - one of Iowa's largest and most progressive multi-doctor chiropractic treatment centers.
We take pride in being a leading chiropractic treatment clinic in Cedar Rapids and our goal is to have CHCA not only lead Cedar Rapids, but all of Iowa in the treatment of Neuromusculoskeletal disorders.
Come try our K-Laser! It is a painless laser treatment that reduces pain, increases circulation, decreases swelling, and improves healing time.
We also now carry Ortho Molecular products like fish oil, probiotics, multivitamins, and a supplement to help decrease allergy symptoms. They are all natural and the highest quality supplements you can buy!


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Latest News
Kate Hudson's Ex Matt Bellamy Buys Malibu Bachelor Pad
Matt Bellamy seems to be taking his split from Kate Hudson pretty hard – and he's got the new bachelor pad to prove it! Take a look inside.… READ MORE
Matt Bellamy Declares He Is "Happy As Larry" Despite Kate Hudson Split...
He's not crying into his Ben & Jerrys!… READ MORE
The Next Gwyneth Paltrow? Kate Hudson's 'Rock Royalty Ways...
Kate Hudson and Jessica Alba's once-close friendship has been shattered, a source revealed to RadarOnline.com.
And the two former BFF actresses&… READ MORE
Kate Hudson Celebrates Birthday With Her Sons
Kate Hudson spent a low-key day in New York Friday, celebrating her 34th birthday with two of her favorite guys — her sons!
The Almost Famous star was s… READ MORE
What A Hot, Skinny Mama! Kate Hudson Dazzles At The Venice Internation...
By Leah Ornstein – Radar Features Editor
A year after giving birth to her second son, Kate Hudson is looking sexier and skinnier than ever!
The 33-yea… READ MORE
Goldie Hawn Says Kate Hudson Is Married To Matt Bellamy!
By Amber Goodhand – Radar Reporter
Kate Hudson and her baby daddy Matt Bellamy are married — according to her mother, Goldie Hawn.
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It's hard to believe that Kate Hudson gave birth, for the second time, just seven months ago!
The scorching hot 32-year-old showed off her ban… READ MORE
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Kate Hudson and Matt Bellamy have settled on a name for their first child together!
The Muse frontman took to his Twitter to reveal the name of t… READ MORE
Kate Hudson Gives Birth
Kate Hudson has given birth to her second child, a boy.
The 32-year-old actress and her fiancé, Muse front man Matt Bellamy, welcomed the baby … READ MORE
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In preparation for their new family together, Kate Hudson and rocker boyfriend Matt Bellamy have purchased a $5.3 m… READ MORE
PHOTOS: Kate Hudson Takes Her Baby Bump To Breakfast
Kate Hudson showed off her enormous baby bump during a Los Angeles outing Wednesday, and RadarOnline.com has the photos.
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Kate Hudson's estranged dad, the ex-husband of superstar Goldie Hawn, is lashing out at his daughter with the stinging claim that the actress is ref… READ MORE
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The breakout English rockers — whose smash-hit single, Supermassive Black Hole, was featured on the soundtrack to Twilight — will be making … READ MORE


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Drones already flying under the radar
The first one offered expansive views before crashing in spectacular fashion. The second one simply flew away, never to be found.
Scott Gerami's third homemade drone was a winner, allowing the Naperville real estate agent to market his clients' homes by taking aerial footage of a property and the surrounding neighborhood.
The potential commercial applications of unmanned aerial vehicles, known as drones, moved front and center earlier this month when Amazon's Jeff Bezos said the company was testing them for delivering packages. On a smaller scale, tech-minded entrepreneurs and hobbyists have already moved from testing their remote-controlled machines to touting the results. A YouTube search of "drone aerial video" yields about 295,000 results.
While privacy advocates voice concerns and the federal government inches closer to issuing airspace regulations for drones, businesses across the country already are operating them under the radar, using them to offer duffers a bird's-eye view of a golf course, sell houses or help farmers chase down feral pigs.
In addition to allowing them for research and some civil uses, the FAA permits recreational, personal use of drones, but they are not supposed to fly higher than 400 feet or near airports. In 2007, the FAA said unmanned aircraft were excluded for business use.
The Federal Aviation Administration has approved only one commercial use of drones, in the Arctic, according to agency spokeswoman Alison Duquette. The agency is expected to issue rules next year regarding the use of drones that weigh less than 55 pounds and broader rules in 2015.
Gerami is well-versed in the FAA's statements but says his drones don't violate the agency's policy because he offers the footage as part of a listing, and typically, real estate agents don't get paid to market a property. They receive a commission when the property sells. Other agents around the country also offer the service.
About a year ago, Gerami saw a video on YouTube of a hobbyist with a drone. "Immediately the kid in me was (thinking), 'Those are cool,'" he said. "And then the wheels started spinning. How can I use this in my business to be different? I did a lot of research. I built it from scratch. I accumulated the parts. I learned to solder."
Gerami is now using his fourth model, which has four legs, and a six-legged craft capable of handling more weight is in development. Costing more than $1,000 each, the drones are equipped with a Global Positioning System unit, a battery, a camera, a video transmitter and a stabilizer that keeps the video steady. A video monitor mounted on a tripod allows Gerami to view what the camera sees and guide the drone accordingly.
Wind and trees aren't a drone's friends, and neither is extreme cold. A recent attempt to dispatch the drone to shoot aerial photos of a $1.4 million Naperville home on an overcast, 19-degree day never got off the ground. Gerami reasoned that the battery froze.
But when it does work, a potential homebuyer can take a virtual tour of a home's exterior, as well as enjoy a bird's-eye view of other homes on a street and also see the distance from the home to local businesses and schools.
Google Earth also would show homebuyers those details, but the drone videos can be a more impressive viewing experience. While an aerial video wouldn't help market a home with a lack of curb appeal or a car on blocks in the neighbor's yard, interest in the additional marketing tool is growing. "Over the next couple years, you're going to see a lot more of this," Gerami said.
The systems' growing popularity is a concern to groups like the Electronic Privacy Information Center, a Washington, D.C., group that focuses on the civil liberties and privacy issues raised by emerging technology.
"All of the (drone) uses, if they are not exploding now, are on the horizon for exploding," said Amie Stepanovich, director of the center's domestic surveillance project. "There are very real concerns."
States have "peeping Tom" laws to varying degrees, but those laws may need to be updated to account for technological advances, Stepanovich said, and the center has proposed that a federal law should mandate minimum standards. "People need to (know) that their information is being collected, and people need to be able to amend the information," she said.
Typically, when the FAA hears about the use of a drone for commercial purposes, it sends a cease-and-desist letter.
However, in July, the FAA proposed fining a Swiss citizen $10,000 for piloting a radio-controlled model airplane equipped with a camera around the University of Virginia campus in 2011 for an ad agency, in what the FAA charged was a "careless and reckless manner" and for compensation. It was the first time the FAA had proposed a fine regarding a drone's use.
The pilot, Raphael Pirker, has filed a motion to dismiss the complaint, in part arguing that the ban on commercial use of drones is not legally enforceable because the FAA is behind on its rulemaking procedures for unmanned aircraft.
Twitter @mepodmolik
Copyright © 2015, Chicago Tribune


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'Spamalot' Garners 14 Tony Nominations
Spamalot, the musical adaptation of skits created by Monty Python, draws 14 Tony Award nods, including best musical and best original score. The nominations were announced in New York Tuesday morning.
Copyright © 2005 NPR. For personal, noncommercial use only. See Terms of Use. For other uses, prior permission required.
STEVE INSKEEP, host:
Nominations for this year's Tony Awards was announced this morning in New York City. "Spamalot," the popular musical adaptation of skits created by "Monty Python" drew 14 nominations including best musical and best original score. Hank Azaria and Tim Curry were both nominated for leading actor in a musical, and "Spamalot" also earned Mike Nichols a nomination for best direction of a musical.
This year's winner of the Pulitzer Prize for drama, "Doubt," is nominated for eight Tonys, including best play. Cherry Jones was nominated for leading actress in a play for her portrayal of a nun who accuses a priest of molesting a boy. Brian F. O'Byrne was nominated for leading actor for his role as the priest.
(Soundbite of "Doubt")
Mr. BRIAN F. O'BYRNE: (As Father Flynn) You have not the slightest proof of anything.
Ms. CHERRY JONES: (As Sister Aloysius) But I have my certainty, and armed with that, I will go to your last parish and the one before that if necessary. I will find a parent, trust me, I will--a parent who probably doesn't know that you are still working with children. And once I do that, you will be exposed.
INSKEEP: That's from "Doubt," one of the nominees for a Tony Award today. The Tonys are presented by the American Theatre Wing, and the winners will be announced next month.
Copyright © 2005 NPR. All rights reserved. No quotes from the materials contained herein may be used in any media without attribution to NPR. This transcript is provided for personal, noncommercial use only, pursuant to our Terms of Use. Any other use requires NPR's prior permission. Visit our permissions page for further information.
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Classic Chateau
Sleeps: 2 Adults.
Set in the patio wing, and situated on the first and ground floors of Château des Vigiers, our 7 Classic Château rooms each measure around 30 sqm. Elegantly fashioned in a contemporary, French country house style, furnished with period-style furniture complemented by crisp bed linen and softly patterned walls, you will feel comfortable, yet pampered.
Deluxe Chateau Rooms
Sleeps: 2 Adults.
all 14 Deluxe rooms each measure between 30 sqm and 40 sqm and are individually decorated in a distinctive French country house style. From crisp, French linen on ornately draped beds, to marble fireplaces, burnished wooden furniture, to slipper bathtubs just waiting to welcome you, From your window or private terrace, you'll enjoy a magnificent view including the impressive golf course
Prestige Rooms
Sleeps: 2 People.
The Prestige rooms are the best and most spacious rooms in the 16th Century Château and afford exceptional views over the parkland golf course and vineyards beyond. Each room has recently been renovated in the style of Louis XIII, Louis XV or Louis XVI. The decor is warm and refined, creating an atmosphere of absolute fulfillment. VIP WELCOME AND SERVICE
Prestige Suite
Sleeps: 2 Adults.
Prestige Suite is located on the first floor of the XVI Century Château.The best room in the Chateau 70 sqm, you will appreciate the magnificent four poster bed, the sumptuous decoration, the authentic charm of the stone walls and ancient beams, bathroom with separate bath tub and shower and the lovely terrace with views over the golf course and vineyards. VIP welcome
Unique Qualities
- Vineyards surround these 16th-century buildings
- Michelin starred restaurant located in the east wing of the château, with dishes prepared by Executive Chef Didier Casaguana
- Superb 27-hole golf course


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Results 1 to 5 of 5
- 01-09-2013, 10:27 PM Thread Author #1
Help! How do I turn off the Bluetooth sign on the Camera filmstrip?
I accidentally pressed the Share button->Bluetooth on the top right of the gallery filmstrip. Now there's always a Bluetooth icon beside (right of) the Share icon. I can't turn it off. When I pressed the bluetooth icon, first, the "Camera Filmstrip view" icon box disappears. If I press it again, it goes back to the camera (picture taking screen).
My Bluetooth icon in my Settings is off. I've tried turning the phone off and on. I've looked in the Camera settings. I've tried selecting other choices on the Share drop menu (Facebook, Messaging, etc)I can't get rid of it.
Can someone help me find a way to remove it? I'm sure the Bluetooth icon wasn't there before.
And can someone tell me what it means that the Bluetooth icon is there? (I.e. am I sharing?)
Thanks! -
Re: Help! How do I turn off the Bluetooth sign on the Camera filmstrip?
It means you are constantly broadcasting all your pics to everyone in range of your Bluetooth. Lol.
Seriously, it's a strange problem... Is it affecting anything or just bugging you that it's showing?
Sent from my Nexus 4 using Android Central ForumsSo long, and thanks for all the fish. - 01-10-2013, 12:22 AM #3
Re: Help! How do I turn off the Bluetooth sign on the Camera filmstrip?
That's just the last way you shared a photo. Share one another way and THAT icon will pop up next time - it's just a shortcut to save you a step.
Sent from my Nexus 4 using Android Central Forums - 01-10-2013, 01:05 AM #4
Re: Help! How do I turn off the Bluetooth sign on the Camera filmstrip?
Dont listen to him ^ (#2).
The button by the share button simply shows what you last used or most frequently use. If you message of fb a couple pics that will start showing in place of the bluetooth icon.
On my device, its always messaging since I usually MMS pics. - 01-10-2013, 02:46 PM Thread Author #5
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text: The government has acted illegally. In British Columbia, the provincial branch of the government continually demands owners of property designated as archaeologically significant pay for archaeological work before any redevelopment can proceed. It's a government arm that deems archaeological finds as publicly significant and should not burden private property owners.


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I had received 3 types of Ginger plants from a friend years ago, I'm describing them all to better distinguish the one I need to get back now. 1)- One had a thick stalk, nice flowers, the leaves were long, about 3" wide but blade-like, and extending right and left on the plant, sort of 2-dimensional like a fishbone. 2)- The 2nd one had leaves that were wider in the middle, thus more like oval, and the leaves sprouted all around the stalk, 3-dimensional, the flowers were rare, I can't remember them. The stalks were thinner but the plant grew tall, about 7 feet. The stalks got bent and damaged easily in strong wind. 3)- The third one had the same type of leave shape as the the #2 plant, but darker in color, and it was stronger overall. It looked much like a rubber plant. It grew to 6 ft. Its most particular character was, if bruised or cut off it would be very fragrant. It also had flowers, white, that were not more fragrant than its broken leaves. Can you identify the #3 above? I lost all of those plants thru flooding and need to replenish them, but the #3 above is the only one I want back. (These were plants deemed good for zones 9-11 I believe, and I am in zone 9. But the emphasis on this plant is not for having any sort of tropical flower, but for the plant itself as a very good choice for a hedge. If this post is more likely to be answered in an other forum section on this site, please advise?). Thanks! |
Follow-Up Postings:
- Posted by hoosierbob 6 (My Page) on Tue, Apr 1, 14 at 16:23
I'm afraid this forum has been inactive for some time, though I keep hoping it will come out of dormancy (this spring?). You haven't really given many specifics about the plant you are looking for. You might try looking through the pictures on the web to find your plant. I am giving a link to the Gingersrus website...there are others out there. If you can't find your plant, you might try the Name This Plant forum...if you can describe the flowers and leaves better there are a lot of helpful people there. My only guess for a 6 foot hedge-type ginger with white flowers would be hedychium coronarium. I am attaching a picture if you can determine whether this is the correct flower shape. If this is what the flowers looked like, it was either coronarium or coronarium maximum, which is bigger. Good Luck with your search! Bob |
Here is a link that might be useful: Gingers R Us Price list with picture links
- Posted by MariaTR 9b (firstname.lastname@example.com) on Tue, Apr 29, 14 at 16:03
I believe the one in the picture is also known as the Butterfly Ginger. |
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So my garden has been neglected and everything is overgrown. Today was my day to go clean it up. I get to the bed that has my lettuce that is way past due to be pulled out, so I start yanking. As I pull it up, I see a clump of pinestraw and thought "what's that doing there?" and pull it out. Then there's more and without thinking I grab it. Then I see it....a small brown fuzzy creature curled up. Freaked out, I exit the garden. After all, it must be a rat's nest (Lord knows I've had my fair share of those critters around). And I've seen far too many movies where disturbed creatures jump out and attack your face, so no way was I doing anything else by myself.
I go get my neighbor to help me. I'll dig it out, but I want someone there to call the ambulance when the rabid rat attacks me. We start pulling back the rest of the nest and sure enough, he's still in there. Along with a few of his siblings. But it wasn't a rat at all. It was baby bunnies!!!! Mama rabbit made her nest in the grocery store. Quite convenient for her. Quite inconvenient for me. :) Oh well, I guess I'll plant around the nest. And certainly, I'll have to plant extra as there are now more mouths to feed. :) |
Follow-Up Postings:
- Posted by jardinera75 7 (My Page) on Mon, May 24, 10 at 12:38
jmzms - you had me laughing here at work when I read your post mostly because I would have reacted the same way! |
heehee! bunnies are a much better find than rats, even tho they eat a lot. Or maybe they're just a cuter find. Glad they didn't attack your face. That made me laugh! All I'm finding are slugs and snakes. bleh! |
I too found a set of baby rabbits today. They were cuddled up behind a set of mulch bags that I had piled up under my deck. One of them tried to walk and ended up rolling over. Funny in a cute kind of way. |
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Monthly news summary of all the happenings and up and coming events in the Scottish Traditional Music scene.
PLEASE NOTE that this DVD is dual format and should be playable on any machine supporting either PAL or NTSC format. DVD suitable for all regions
10,000 Pipers and Drummers from all over the world including The Massed Pipes and Drums of the Edinburgh Tattoo, Scottish Power Pipe Band, The Strathclyde Police Pipe Band.
In August 2000, thousands of pipers and drummers gathered in Edinburgh to raise money for Marie Curie Cancer Care and play bagpipes. This appealing documentary combines dramatic street shots of the marching bands, music and commentary by Isla St Clair.
Plus three exclusive BONUS TRACKS of rare piping footage.
Member: | No |
Currency: | £'s (GBP) |
Deliver to: | United Kingdom |
Items: | £0.00 |
Delivery: | £0.00 |
Total: | £0.00 |
Weight: | 0g |


text:
Customers of high-street pharmacy chain Boots expect it to use their data to target them with personalised messages across all channels, according to director of customer loyalty at Boots, Ruth Spencer.
Spencer, who was speaking at IBM's Smarter Commerce Global Summit held in Madrid this week, said high-street retailers had to change to keep up with these new consumer expectations.
She said retailers must maximise "touch points" where customers and the business can interact, and then analyse the data that these interactions generate.
"Customers now believe [the company] uses its insight. They think 'you've got my data, I expect you use it'," she said.
Spencer said Boots uses IBM owned-company Unica's marketing software solution to help it manage quarterly loyalty programme statements and in-store kiosk marketing programmes.
The solution helps the retailer to determine how best to contact a customer and the frequency of doing so by analysing a consumer's preferences and balancing this with the business' marketing goals.
Spencer said that Boots' Advantage Card scheme, which has 17.8 million members, allows the company to know what a customer is buying and to detect trends from their buying history.
"We can see if someone went to Boots to buy a few everyday products and then bought a sandwich [just because they were in the store] or vice versa," she said.
Another big shift for retailers is the ability to use social media and mobile.
"With social media we read through things that are written about Boots and if we find something of interest then we do an analysis on it.
"Retailers should not be afraid to adapt their websites for mobile. However, they have to focus on what consumers are really going to use the website for, such as store locations – not a big basket shop," she added.
This paper seeks to provide education and technical insight to beacons, in addition to providing insight to Apple's iBeacon specification
Focus on cost efficiency, simplicity, performance, scalability and future-readiness when architecting your data protection strategy


text:
A few years ago, reading through issues of the now-defunct sentence: the journal of the prose poem started me thinking about the prose poem in terms of difference between Canada and the United States. As much overlap as our two countries have, the evolution of the nebulously-termed "prose poetry" has been different, and yet, at least on this side of the border, the form hasn't been (for what I've been able to find) much explored in terms of possibility, genealogy and influence. Back in May 2012, as a prelude to composing a possible essay to explore the subject, I sent out an email to a variety of individuals, and even a couple of list-serves, seeking information:
Mary Caroline Richards spent time at Black Mountain College, formed and lived on a Long Island commume from 1954-1964, wrote poems about pottery and published a book about centering in the 1960s that received a lot of attention, was a long-time friend of John Cage. When Cage did an academic year at Wesleyan University in 1960-61, he used his leverage there to arrange a poetry reading for Richards. PennSound has only one recording of M.C. Richards — made at Indre Studios in Philadelphia on May 5, 1997.
One of the poems she performed on that occasion was "For John Cage on His 75th Birthday": MP3.
In her recent collection of essays, edited by Vancouver poet and critic Reg Johanson and collected together as AKA Inendagosekwe (CUE, 2013), Winnipeg poet Annharte's "Advice to Young Writers" reads:
On December 12 and 13, 1979, Robert Creeley hosted Kathy Acker at SUNY-Buffalo. He introduced her and in two sessions she read from her work and engaged with Creeley on conversation. PennSound now offers, in addition to the whole recording, segments by topic and work:
Many thanks for Hannah Judd, who did the editorial and segmenting work.
Until I looked at Sophia Le Fraga's "W8ING 4 ," I never really thought of seeing the lines of a "text" on a phone as lines of a poem. Since I love the look of poetry, the visual arrangement of words on a page, it seems silly that I didn't see those parallels until now.
There is a lot to look at in "W8ING 4 ." The rows of emoji leap out at me with sentimental feeling. They make me think of sticker collections, tiny patterns on cotton dresses, little parts of Joe Brainard paintings. They are buttons, digital and tender.
The human figure Le Fraga's texters are waiting for is abstract, grey, and genderless, which means it could represent a man. But the poem the texters create together is animated by a girly liveliness: notes in bubbles, all the "likes," the instant transmission of intimacy, the slangy surface of their writing, the big-hearted depths. "I was starting to think you/ were gone forever." "W8ING 4 " is the girlification of Godot.
"W8ING 4 " goes fast. As the poem unfolded and the letters of the alphabet flashed up before my eyes my attention was sucked into the condensed world of the screen.


text:
Previous Episode | Next Episode
Terror In The Sky
by Dave KochThis page has been viewed 12 times this month, and 397 times total.
- Batman: The Animated Series Cartoon Episode Guide
- Warner Bros. Television Animation.
- Cartoon Characters: Batman, Bruce Wayne, Alfred Pennyworth, Dr. March, Francine Langstrom, Dr. Krik Langstrom.
- Originally Released in 1992.
- Season: 1
- Color
- Running Time: 30 minutes.
- Buy This On DVD
Cartoon Summary:
When a man-sized bat ransacks Gotham harbor, Batman suspects that Dr. Kirk Langstrom is up to his old tricks, taking the Man-Bat formula again. Batman isn't the only one. Kirk's wife, Francine, is so distrustful of her husband that she decides to leave him. After further investigation, Batman discovers that the Man-Bat is no longer Kirk, but someone else.
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British Fashion Awards 2012 | Pictures
Stella McCartney Wins Twice at 2012 British Fashion Awards
"Something that I've learned this year is that great people make Great Britain," Stella McCartney said at Tuesday's British Fashion Awards. And McCartney, who won both the designer of the year and brand of the year awards, is undoubtedly among those great people.
Both honors cap off a year filled with milestones for McCartney: she famously designed the uniforms for Team Great Britain to wear during the 2012 London Olympics. She also won rave reviews for her Resort 2013 and Spring 2013 collections and even got an honorary doctorate from the University of the Arts in London.
Other award winners included Cara Delevingne, who won the model of the year award; Alexa Chung, who won the British style award; and Erdem Moralioglu, who took home the New Establishment Award. A full list of all the winners below.
Designer of the Year: Stella McCartney
Designer Brand: Stella McCartney
New Establishment: Erdem Moralioglu
Menswear Designer: Kim Jones of Louis Vuitton
Emerging Talent Award — Ready-to-Wear: J.W. Anderson
Emerging Talent Award — Accessories: Sophie Hulme
Emerging Talent Award — Menswear: Jonathan Saunders
Accessory Designer: Nicholas Kirkwood
Red Carpet Award: Roksanda Ilincic
Model: Cara Delevingne
Outstanding Achievement in Fashion: Manolo Blahnik
Special Recognition: Harold Tillman CBE
Isabella Blow Award for Fashion Creator: Louise Wilson
British Style Award: Alexa Chung
Stella McCartney
- The supermodel gives her opinion about the "easy come, easy go" set — Style.com
- The last great Piperlime sale is in the near future — HuffPost Style
- Now this is what we call a versatile leather boot — SHEFinds
- All the stars will be shopping at Stuart Weitzman this Spring — Who What Wear
- This DIY tassel necklace is perfect for your next vacation — StyleList
- A street style sweater that goes to infinity and beyond — InStyle
- Paper-bag-waist pants: surprisingly more chic than they sound — Fashionista
- Guess which show is opening NYFW? — Racked
- In belly button news, Lindsay Lohan may have photoshopped hers off — Lucky


text:
light-emitting diode (LED)
light-emitting diode (LED)
Semiconductor diode that produces visible or infrared light when subjected to an electric current, as a result of electroluminescence. Visible-light LEDs are used in many electronic devices as indicator lamps (e.g., an on/off indicator) and, when arranged in a matrix, to spell out letters or numbers on alphanumeric displays. Infrared LEDs are used in optoelectronics (e.g., in auto-focus cameras and television remote controls) and as light sources in some long-range fibre-optic communications systems. LEDs are formed by the so-called III-V compound semiconductors related to gallium arsenide. They consume little power and are long-lasting and inexpensive.
This entry comes from Encyclopædia Britannica Concise.
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Find the best surf spots |
Here you will find some information about GPS coordinates and related topics (datums, waypoint files, etc.). This helps to understand how to best use GPS coordinates.
Screenshot of Google Maps website |
Screenshot of Terraserver website |
Datum shift example Draw from www.shipwrite.bc.ca |
Datum shift example (Route) Draw from www.amsa.gov.au |


text:
King James Version (KJV) | New International Version (NIV) |
5 Commit thy way unto the LORD; trust also in him; and he shall bring it to pass . | 5 Commit your way to the LORD; trust in him and he will do this: |
The King James Version is in the public domain. (The King James Bible Version Online) | Scripture quoted by permission. Quotations designated (NIV) are from THE HOLY BIBLE: NEW INTERNATIONAL VERSION®. NIV®. Copyright © 1973, 1978, 1984 by Biblica. All rights reserved worldwide. (New International Version Bible Online) |


text: Hotel Chanda Jhansi Quick Specs View Large Interactive Map Address In front of Rani Laxmi Bai ParkJhansi, India 284001 Web http://jhansihotels.net/hotel_chanda_jhansi.htm Phone + 91 510-245-0027 Fax Toll-free Email OverviewMeeting Specs Description Hotel Chanda Jhansi Location & Neighborhood5 minutes drive from the Airport, 2 minutes from the railway station. Nearby AirportsGwalior (61.75 miles northwest)Khajuraho (94 miles southeast)Kheria (123.75 miles northwest)More Airports » Hotel Chanda Jhansi Room AmentitiesHotel Chanda Jhansi amenities are in All rooms unless noted otherwiseTelephoneTelevision Guest ServicesLaundry/Dry Cleaning Service Hotel Chanda Jhansi Meeting Rooms & Events Hoteliers! Is your listing up to date? With over 130,000 hotels in our database, no other source compares to our depth of information. Click here to review and be sure the travel professional knows your hotel's latest details.


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certificate of deposit (CD)
certificate of deposit (CD)
Receipt from a bank acknowledging the deposit of a sum of money. The most common type, the time certificate of deposit, is for a fixed-term interest-bearing deposit in a large denomination. It consequently pays higher interest than a savings account, though the investor who withdraws money before its maturity date is subject to a penalty. Introduced in the early 1960s, CDs have become a popular method of saving.
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Share your thoughts
What do you think of the
Spy Zed Goggles - Persimmon with Additional Lens
? Share a...
I had a pair of Von Zippers, way more expensive and not nearly the goggle the Spy Zeds are. You get some crazy Mammoth Mountain weather blow in and you will be stoked you are rockin' the Zed!
A solid 'Meh'
I picked these up for my first ski trip to Colorado and they were the only thing I was unhappy with. They fogged up constantly, regardless if I used anti-fogging spray, breathed through my nose, wore a facemask, none of it helped. I had friends with cheapo $20 goggles or even sunglasses that worked better. Based on my experience, I can't recommend these goggles.
great goggles for a great prize
I recently went to Breckenridge to snow ski and used these goggles the first time.Awesome, they didn't fog up,fit really good and even made this 46 year old man look somewhat cool.The lens could maybe be a little bigger for the perfect all around vision, but I was really happy with this purchase.
great for low price
these goggles were a steal for the price and they come with extra lens which is a plus. they look cool and the elastic strap sticks to you head. very nice goggles for cheap once again
sick goggles
these goggles are so bomb. i'm glad i got some.
Spy Zed Goggles
These goggles are sick. There is no point in paying 100+ for goggles. I used these last week and got dumped on with over a foot of powder while riding. Didn't fog up at all, and I had clear vision. The grip on the strap is awesome, feels secure on your head. Plus, they just sexy.


text:
Parents have asked how they can get instruments like we use in class for use at home. In response, MusicalMe now has an inventory of instruments which are available for sale. We use our wholesale purchasing capability to offer age appropriate items at less than suggested retail pricing.
Place your order online TODAY! To avoid shipping costs, orders may be picked up in our Scotts Valley office or delivered to your MusicalMe offered Music Together® classroom (During regular sessions ONLY. Please allow at least one week for delivery to your classroom). Orders shipped via USPS will be charged a shipping fee.
**PLEASE NOTE: Listed prices do not include sales tax or shipping. These will be added to your order prior to checkout.
**MMI makes every effort to provide you with quality name-brand instruments however; due to supply and demand, some brand names may not be available at time of order therefore MMI reserves the right to replace with a comparable brand of equal or better quality.