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Office of Scientific and Technical Information
A Tight Lower Bound to the Outage Probability of Discrete-Input Block-Fading Channels
Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)
In this correspondence, a tight lower bound to the outage probability of discrete-input Nakagami-m block-fading channels is proposed. The approach permits an efficient method for numerical evaluation of the bound, providing an additional tool for system ... Keywords: Block-fading channel, diversity, error probability, outage probability, rate-diversity tradeoff, signal-to-noise ratio (SNR)-exponent
K. D. Nguyen; A. Guillen i Fabregas; L. K. Rasmussen
Using Remaining Battery lifetime information and Relaying to decrease Outage Probability of a Mobile
E-Print Network (OSTI)
Using Remaining Battery lifetime information and Relaying to decrease Outage Probability is to demonstrate that by employing relaying and using the remaining battery lifetime information of Mobile is determined based on the remaining battery lifetime of the MT. We assume a linear relationship between
Singh, Suresh
Outage probability and channel capacity for the Nth best relay selection AF relaying over INID Rayleigh fading channels
Cooperative diversity systems have recently been proposed as a way to form virtual antenna schemes without utilizing collocated multiple antennas. In this paper, we consider the Nth best opportunistic amplify-and-forward (AF) cooperative diversity ... Keywords: Nth best OAF, INID Rayleigh fading channels, channel capacity, cooperative diversity, outage probability
K. Ko; C. Woo
Outage Log
NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)
For Users Live Status Global Queue Look Scheduled Outages Outage Log Edison Login Node Status Hopper Login Node Status Hopper User Environment Monitoring Carver Login Node Status...
Improving Outage Performance: Outage Optimization Process
SciTech Connect
Planned outage performance is a key measure of how well an Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) is operated. Performance during planned outages strongly affects virtually all of a plant's performance metrics. In recognition of this fact, NPP operators worldwide have and continue to focus on improving their outage performance. The process of improving outage performance is commonly referred to as 'Outage Optimization' in the industry. This paper starts with a summary of the principles of Outage Optimization. It then provides an overview of a process in common use in the USA and elsewhere to manage the improvement of planned outages. The program described is comprehensive in that it involves managing improvement in both the Preparation and Execution phases of outage management. (author)
LaPlatney, Jere J. [AREVA NP (United States)
Outage Management Benchmarking Guideline
Benchmarking of power plant outages will help plants target performance improvements to specific elements of a plant outage program in order to improve overall availability, reliability, and safety while decreasing generation costs. EPRI's "Outage Management Benchmarking Guideline" builds on the Institute's fossil and nuclear plant experience with routine maintenance and extends that to outage maintenance processes. The guideline describes the initial steps in an outage benchmarking effort and 13 key ele...
Outage Effectiveness Measurement Methodology
The efficiency of an outage program and the correctness of the outage process are important to the continuous improvement and long-term success of the plant. This report, based on a collective of industry experience, EPRI publications, and power conference data, is an aid to utility and plant management and staff to understanding the outage effectiveness methods and metrics relative to outage planning, execution, and post-outage operations.
Scenario Scenario HELP Index Summary Scenario References Student Pages A United States Regional Study The 4th and 5th grade gifted and talented students in the Project Idea Plus classes at Highlands School and Mill Street School apparently have just received e-mail from Moscow, Russia! Actually, these two classes are involved in a humanities simulation. Check out these hints for facilitating the unit. Most school district curricula include the traditional United States regional study. This project is an innovative way to cover the same material emphasizing engaged learning with the Internet. It is a unit that integrates social studies and language arts as well as thinking skills. The teachers have planned this project so that their classes will be able to interact using telecommunications. This offers an opportunity for students
Scenario Scenario Summary Student Page Internet Links Index These are the first few days of the 96 - 97 course and a new list of students has been given to the teacher. Twenty-seven new students will form his class, some with familiar surnames. Most of the students in the bilingual 4th & 5th grade need extra help in some of the subject areas of instruction. Some students just came from another country and have very little educational experiences. Most of them lack the Basic English skills to succeed and compete in a regular classroom. The challenge is there! How being so close to the XXI Century, "The Information Era," will the teacher be able to provide his students with, the necessary skills to succeed in the job market of the future? Fortunately, a few months ago the teacher was
Project Project RELATIVITY Scenario HELP Index Summary Scenario Reference Student Pages Introduction: Mr. Brian Wegley is part of a talented science staff at Glenbrook South High School. Glenbrook South High School is set in an educationally supportive and affluent community. The physics staff work in teams teaching physics to over 80% of the student population and are constantly looking for ways to use technology to empower students with the ability to apply learned concepts of physics to their lives. With this goal in mind, the physics staff has instituted a second-semester project which is an engaging, student directed project. It currently runs parallel with a traditionally-formatted, highly-structured physics course and is preceded by many smaller, developmental projects during the first semester. The
SPACE SPACE Scenario HELP Index Summary Scenario Internet Links Student Pages September The students from 7-2 team at Grissom Junior High have started the school year by sending e-mail messages about themselves to sixth graders at a Chicago public school and high school students in Nashville. They have sent a message about how they are looking forward to sharing ideas on astronomy and short biography about Grissom and themselves. They hope to set up a project with the two schools. Other students want to know if other schools around the world could be contacted. The math teacher says she will try to make arrangements but to see if they could come up with some ideas on ways they could contact other schools themselves. Astronomy is part of the seventh grade science curriculum. This year, the
Extended outages at several nuclear plants led to high outage ...
U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
Outages at U.S. nuclear power plants so far in 2012 are generally higher than in recent years because of extended forced outages at four nuclear power plants.
Cognitive Multiple Access Network with Outage Margin in the Primary System
This paper investigates the problem of spectrally efficient operation of a multiuser uplink cognitive radio system in the presence of a single primary link. The secondary system applies opportunistic interference cancelation (OIC) and decode the primary signal when such an opportunity is created. We derive the achievable rate in the secondary system when OIC is used. This scheme has a practical significance, since it enables rate adaptation without requiring any action from the primary system. The \\emph{exact} expressions for outage probability of the primary user are derived, when the primary system is exposed to interference from secondary users. Moreover, approximated formulas and tight lower and upper bounds for the ergodic sum-rate capacity of the secondary network are found. Next, the power allocation is investigated in the secondary system for maximizing the sum-rate under an outage constraint at the primary system. We formulate the power optimization problem in various scenarios depending on the avail...
Maham, Behrouz; Zhou, Xiangyun; Hj�rungnes, Are
Transmission outage data collection for multiple related outage events
This paper focuses on the information required to provide a basis for the analysis of forced multiple outage events. It recaps research as well as the bulk transmission outage collection up-rate that was performed. This paper identifies trends and addresses their impact on bulk transmission outage data collection.
Lauby, M.G. (Electric Power Research Inst., Palo Alto, CA (USA)); Maillant, G.R. (Electricite de France (EDF)
Outage dose reduction achievements during shorter refueling outages
Achievement of dose reduction goals has been demonstrated at the Limerick Generating Station during the past three refueling outages in 1995-96. Shorter refueling outages were accomplished by carefully selecting outage work and thoroughly planning the work. Limerick Unit 1 completed its outage in 35 d; Unit 2 in 23 d in 1995; Unit 1 completed its outage in 24 d in 1996. The four previous outages at Unit I had taken from 100 to 127 days. European plants were visited by plant supervisors to develop improved management approaches to optimizing outage performance from work planning to work implement. Cofrentes in Spain and KKL Leibstadt in Switzerland were visited in 1994 because of their similar design and outage durations consistently below 35 d. This paper describes the radiation protection practices observed at European plants and implemented at Limerick to achieve efficiency of work practices and adequacy of radiological controls. Specific radiation protection initiatives discussed include electronic dosimetry system, break areas, wash sinks, scrub suits, zone mapping and self-monitoring. Outage achievements in 1995 and 1996 has assured Limerick continued BWR industry leadership as the lowest annual person-rem BWRs in the U.S..
Harris, W.O.; Taylor, S. [Limerick Generating Station, Sanatoga, PA (United States)
Cell outage management in LTE networks
Cell outage management is a functionality aiming to automatically detect and mitigate outages that occur in radio networks due to unexpected failures. We envisage that future radio networks autonomously detect an outage based on measurements, from e.g., ...
M. Amirijoo; L. Jorguseski; T. K�rner; R. Litjens; M. Neuland; L. C. Schmelz; U. T�rke
OpenEI Community - outages
Open Energy Info (EERE)
have been preparing for an imminent threat that could lead to a substantial and prolonged power outage for utility customers not only on the East Coast, but also as far west as...
Overview of Common Mode Outages in Power Systems
This paper is a result of ongoing activity carried out by Probability Applications for Common Mode Events (PACME) Task Force under the Reliability Risk and Probability Applications (RRPA) Subcommittee. The paper is intended to constitute a valid source of information and references about dealing with common-mode outages in power systems reliability analysis. This effort involves reviewing published literature and presenting state-of-the-art research and practical applications in the area of common-mode outages. Evaluation of available outage statistics show that there is a definite need for collective effort from academia and industry to not only recommended procedures for data collection and monitoring but also to provide appropriate mathematical models to assess such events.
Papic, Milorad; Awodele , Kehinde; Billinton, Roy; Dent, Chris; Eager, Dan; Hamoud, Gomaa; Jirutitijaroen, Panida; Kumbale, Murali; Mitra, Joydeep; Samaan, Nader A.; Schneider, Alex; Singh, Chanan
Definition: Reduced Sustained Outages | Open Energy Information
Outages Outages Jump to: navigation, search Dictionary.png Reduced Sustained Outages A sustained outage is one lasting >5 minutes, excluding major outages and wide-scale outages. The monetary benefit of reducing sustained outages is based on the value of service (VOS) of each customer class. The VOS parameter represents the total cost of a power outage per MWh. This cost includes the value of unserved energy, lost productivity, collateral damage, administrative costs, the value of penalties and performance-based rates. Functions that lead to this benefit can reduce the likelihood that there will be an outage, allow the system to be reconfigured on the fly to help restore service to as many customers as possible, enable a quicker response in the restoration effort, or mitigate the impact of an outage
outages | OpenEI Community
66 66 Varnish cache server Home Groups Community Central Green Button Applications Developer Utility Rate FRED: FRee Energy Database More Public Groups Private Groups Features Groups Blog posts Content Stream Documents Discussions Polls Q & A Events Notices My stuff Energy blogs 429 Throttled (bot load) Error 429 Throttled (bot load) Throttled (bot load) Guru Meditation: XID: 2142234866 Varnish cache server outages Home Graham7781's picture Submitted by Graham7781(2002) Super contributor 29 October, 2012 - 14:46 East Coast Utilities prepare for Hurricane Sandy East Coast Hurricane Sandy OpenEI outages storm United States Utility Companies As Hurricane Sandy continues to track towards the coast of the Eastern United States, utility companies have been preparing for an imminent threat that could lead to a substantial and prolonged power outage for utility
Definition: Reduced Major Outages | Open Energy Information
Outages Outages Jump to: navigation, search Dictionary.png Reduced Major Outages A major outage is defined using the beta method, per IEEE Std 1366-2003 (IEEE Power Engineering Society 2004). The monetary benefit of reducing major outages is based on the VOS of each customer class. The VOS parameter represents the total cost of a power outage per MWh. This cost includes the value of unserved energy, lost productivity, collateral damage, the value of penalties and performance-based rates. Functions that lead to this benefit can mitigate major outages by allowing the system to be reconfigured on the fly to help restore service to as many customers as possible, enable a quicker response in the restoration effort, or mitigate the impact of an outage through islanding or alternative power supply.[1]
Definition: Outage Management System | Open Energy Information
Outage Management System Outage Management System A software application that can process outage reports from a variety of utility operational systems including SCADA, AMI, and customer phone calls, and display outage information to utility operators. The OMS can help a utility interpret outage information and determine where the likely cause of an outage may be. It can also help the utility optimize its service restoration resources.[1] Related Terms advanced metering infrastructure References ↑ https://www.smartgrid.gov/category/technology/outage_management_system [[C LikeLike UnlikeLike You like this.Sign Up to see what your friends like. ategory: Smart Grid Definitionssmart grid,smart grid, |Template:BASEPAGENAME]]smart grid,smart grid, Retrieved from "http://en.openei.org/w/index.php?title=Definition:Outage_Management_System&oldid=502507
Broadcast Outages for NIST Radio Station WWVB
... Numerous short outages while station was undergoing maintenance and testing during daylight hours. WWVB operated at reduced power during ...
Next Generation Safeguards Initiative: Analysis of Probability of Detection of Plausible Diversion Scenarios at Gas Centrifuge Enrichment Plants Using Advanced Safeguards
Over the last decade, efforts by the safeguards community, including inspectorates, governments, operators and owners of centrifuge facilities, have given rise to new possibilities for safeguards approaches in enrichment plants. Many of these efforts have involved development of new instrumentation to measure uranium mass and uranium-235 enrichment and inspection schemes using unannounced and random site inspections. We have chosen select diversion scenarios and put together a reasonable system of safeguards equipment and safeguards approaches and analyzed the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed safeguards approach by predicting the probability of detection of diversion in the chosen safeguards approaches. We analyzed the effect of redundancy in instrumentation, cross verification of operator instrumentation by inspector instrumentation, and the effects of failures or anomalous readings on verification data. Armed with these esults we were able to quantify the technical cost benefit of the addition of certain instrument suites and show the promise of these new systems.
Hase, Kevin R. [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Hawkins Erpenbeck, Heather [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Boyer, Brian D. [Los Alamos National Laboratory
A framework and review of customer outage costs: Integration and analysis of electric utility outage cost surveys
A clear understanding of the monetary value that customers place on reliability and the factors that give rise to higher and lower values is an essential tool in determining investment in the grid. The recent National Transmission Grid Study recognizes the need for this information as one of growing importance for both public and private decision makers. In response, the U.S. Department of Energy has undertaken this study, as a first step toward addressing the current absence of consistent data needed to support better estimates of the economic value of electricity reliability. Twenty-four studies, conducted by eight electric utilities between 1989 and 2002 representing residential and commercial/industrial (small, medium and large) customer groups, were chosen for analysis. The studies cover virtually all of the Southeast, most of the western United States, including California, rural Washington and Oregon, and the Midwest south and east of Chicago. All variables were standardized to a consistent metric and dollar amounts were adjusted to the 2002 CPI. The data were then incorporated into a meta-database in which each outage scenario (e.g., the lost of electric service for one hour on a weekday summer afternoon) is treated as an independent case or record both to permit comparisons between outage characteristics and to increase the statistical power of analysis results. Unadjusted average outage costs and Tobit models that estimate customer damage functions are presented. The customer damage functions express customer outage costs for a given outage scenario and customer class as a function of location, time of day, consumption, and business type. One can use the damage functions to calculate outage costs for specific customer types. For example, using the customer damage functions, the cost experienced by an ''average'' customer resulting from a 1 hour summer afternoon outage is estimated to be approximately $3 for a residential customer, $1,200 for small-medium commercial and industrial customer, and $82,000 for large commercial and industrial customer. Future work to improve the quality and coverage of information on the value of electricity reliability to customers is described.
Lawton, Leora; Sullivan, Michael; Van Liere, Kent; Katz, Aaron; Eto, Joseph
Outage Performance of OFDM-Based Selective Decode-and-Forward Cooperative Networks Over Nakagami-m Fading Channels
In this paper, we investigate the outage performance of OFDM-based selective decode-and-forward cooperative networks over independent but not necessarily identically distributed (i.n.i.d.) Nakagami-m fading channels, with integer values of parameter ... Keywords: Cooperative communication, Nakagami-m fading, OFDM, Outage probability
Wendong Yang; Weiwei Yang; Yueming Cai
Outage Performance of Dual-Hop AF Relay Channels with Co-Channel Interferences over Rayleigh Fading
This paper studies the outage performance of a dual-hop amplify-and-forward (AF) relay fading channel in an interference-limited environment. The relay and destination nodes are corrupted by multiple co-channel Rayleigh interferences. New exact closed-form ... Keywords: Amplify and-forward relay, Co-channel interference, Nonregenerative relay, Outage probability, Rayleigh fading
Aleksandra M. Cvetkovi?; Dejan N. Mili?; Aleksandar S. Cvetkovi?; Mihajlo Stefanovi?
Definition: Reduced Momentary Outages | Open Energy Information
Momentary Outages Momentary Outages Jump to: navigation, search Dictionary.png Reduced Momentary Outages By locating faults more accurately or adding electricity storage, momentary outages could be reduced or eliminated. Moreover, fewer customers on the same or adjacent distribution feeders would experience the momentary interruptions associated with reclosing. Momentary outages last <5 min in duration. The benefit to consumers is based on the value of service.[1] Related Terms electricity storage technologies, electricity generation, smart grid References ↑ SmartGrid.gov 'Description of Benefits' An in LikeLike UnlikeLike You like this.Sign Up to see what your friends like. line Glossary Definition Retrieved from "http://en.openei.org/w/index.php?title=Definition:Reduced_Momentary_Outages&oldid=493094
... Broadcast Outages for WWVB. ... WWVB will be operating at 1/2 power (35 kW) during the daylight hours on weekdays from September 14, 2009 until ...
Track NERSC Scheduled and Unscheduled Outages in Google Calendar
Track NERSC Outages in Google Calendar Track NERSC Outages in Google Calendar March 22, 2013 by Jack Deslippe (0 Comments) Outages are now available in Google calendar form. You...
North American Electric Reliability Council Outage Announcement |
Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site
Council Outage Announcement Council Outage Announcement North American Electric Reliability Council Outage Announcement Starting at about 4:11 p.m. EDT, major losses of electric load occurred in the northeastern United States and Canada in the Eastern Interconnection. Although the exact cause is not known at present, the outages are not the result of a terrorist attack. The areas most affected center around the Great Lakes: Michigan, Ohio, New York City, Ontario, Quebec, northern New Jersey, Massachusetts, and Connecticut. North American Electric Reliability Council Outage Announcement More Documents & Publications Blackout 2003: Final Report on the August 14, 2003 Blackout in the United States and Canada: Causes and Recommendations Blackout 2003: Blackout Final Implementation Report
Managing turbine-generator outages by computer
This article describes software being developed to address the need for computerized planning and documentation programs that can help manage outages. Downsized power-utility companies and the growing demand for independent, competitive engineering and maintenance services have created a need for a computer-assisted planning and technical-direction program for turbine-generator outages. To meet this need, a software tool is now under development that can run on a desktop or laptop personal computer to assist utility personnel and technical directors in outage planning. Total Outage Planning Software (TOPS), which runs on Windows, takes advantage of the mass data storage available with compact-disc technology by archiving the complete outage documentation on CD. Previous outage records can then be indexed, searched, and viewed on a computer with the click of a mouse. Critical-path schedules, parts lists, parts order tracking, work instructions and procedures, custom data sheets, and progress reports can be generated by computer on-site during an outage.
Reinhart, E.R. [Reinhart and Associates, Inc., Austin, TX (United States)
Outage-Efficient Downlink Transmission Without Transmit Channel State Information
This paper investigates downlink transmission over a quasi-static fading Gaussian broadcast channel (BC), to model delay-sensitive applications over slowly time-varying fading channels. System perfor-mance is characterized by outage achievable rate regions. In contrast to most previous work, here the problem is studied under the key assumption that the transmitter only knows the probability distributions of the fading coefficients, but not their realizations. For scalar-input channels, two coding schemes are proposed. The first scheme is called blind dirty paper coding (B-DPC), which utilizes a robustness property of dirty paper coding to perform precoding at the transmitter. The second scheme is called statistical superposition coding (S-SC), in which each receiver adaptively performs successive decoding with the process statistically governed by the realized fading. Both B-DPC and S-SC schemes lead to the same outage achievable rate region, which always dominates that of time-sharing, irrespective of the particular fading distributions. The S-SC scheme can be extended to BCs with multiple transmit antennas. Index Terms Broadcast channel, (blind) dirty paper coding, downlink, non-ergodic fading, outage achievable rate region, quasi-static fading, (statistical) superposition coding
Wenyi Zhang; Shivaprasad Kotagiri; Student Member; J. Nicholas Laneman; Senior Member
Systems and Services Outage Notification Policy
Job Logs & Analytics Job Logs & Analytics Training & Tutorials Software Accounts & Allocations Policies Acknowledge NERSC Allocation Eligibility Allocation Management Computer Security Computer Use Data Management Passwords Queue Scheduling Usage Charges System Outages Data Analytics & Visualization Data Management Policies Science Gateways User Surveys NERSC Users Group User Announcements Help Operations for: Passwords & Off-Hours Status 1-800-66-NERSC, option 1 or 510-486-6821 Account Support https://nim.nersc.gov email@example.com 1-800-66-NERSC, option 2 or 510-486-8612 Consulting http://help.nersc.gov firstname.lastname@example.com 1-800-66-NERSC, option 3 or 510-486-8611 Home » For Users » Policies » System Outages Systems Outage Notification Policy To be considered a scheduled outage, the user community must be notified of
August 14, 2003 Power Outages Announcement
Ellen P. Vancko Ellen P. Vancko email@example.com Power Outage Update ⎯ 8/16/2003 11 a.m. EDT The bulk electric transmission system in the United States and Canada has been restored and is operating reliably. Many of the generating units that tripped off line during the outage have returned to service and additional generating units are expected to return to service over the weekend. Virtually all customers have been returned to electric service, although some customers will continue to experience rotating outages due to generating capacity availability. Some rotating outages may also be necessary on Monday depending on the status of the generating units returning to service and the electrical demand. "NERC is conducting a thorough investigation into this event in conjunction with the regional
Definition: Sustained Outage | Open Energy Information
Sustained Outage Sustained Outage Jump to: navigation, search Dictionary.png Sustained Outage The deenergized condition of a transmission line resulting from a fault or disturbance following an unsuccessful automatic reclosing sequence and/or unsuccessful manual reclosing procedure.[1] View on Wikipedia Wikipedia Definition A power outage (also power cut, blackout, or power failure) is a short- or long-term loss of the electric power to an area. There are many causes of power failures in an electricity network. Examples of these causes include faults at power stations, damage to electric transmission lines, substations or other parts of the distribution system, a short circuit, or the overloading of electricity mains. Power failures are particularly critical at sites where the environment and public safety are
Definition: Forced Outage | Open Energy Information
Forced Outage Forced Outage Jump to: navigation, search Dictionary.png Forced Outage The removal from service availability of a generating unit, transmission line, or other facility for emergency reasons., The condition in which the equipment is unavailable due to unanticipated failure.[1] Related Terms transmission lines, transmission line References ↑ Glossary of Terms Used in Reliability Standards An i LikeLike UnlikeLike You like this.Sign Up to see what your friends like. nline Glossary Definition Retrieved from "http://en.openei.org/w/index.php?title=Definition:Forced_Outage&oldid=480310" Categories: Definitions ISGAN Definitions What links here Related changes Special pages Printable version Permanent link Browse properties About us Disclaimers Energy blogs Linked Data
Outage Milestone Manual for Fossil-Fueled Power Plants
The efficiency of an outage program and the correctness of the outage process are important to the continuous improvement and long-term success of a utility and plant. This report--based on collective industry experience; Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) publications; and outage conference, meeting, and workshop data--provides guidance for utility and plant management and staff involved in outage planning, execution, and post-outage operations and in restarting the planning cycle in preparation f...
Outage Management Guidelines for Fossil- Fueled Power Plants
The efficiency of an outage program and the correctness of the outage process are important to the continuous improvement and the long-term success of a utility and plant. This report, based on collective industry experience, Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) publications, and outage conference, meeting, and workshop data, provides guidance for utility/plant management and staff involved in outage planning, execution, and post-outage operations and in restarting the planning cycle in preparation f...
Contingency Analysis of Cascading Line Outage Events
As the US power systems continue to increase in size and complexity, including the growth of smart grids, larger blackouts due to cascading outages become more likely. Grid congestion is often associated with a cascading collapse leading to a major blackout. Such a collapse is characterized by a self-sustaining sequence of line outages followed by a topology breakup of the network. This paper addresses the implementation and testing of a process for N-k contingency analysis and sequential cascading outage simulation in order to identify potential cascading modes. A modeling approach described in this paper offers a unique capability to identify initiating events that may lead to cascading outages. It predicts the development of cascading events by identifying and visualizing potential cascading tiers. The proposed approach was implemented using a 328-bus simplified SERC power system network. The results of the study indicate that initiating events and possible cascading chains may be identified, ranked and visualized. This approach may be used to improve the reliability of a transmission grid and reduce its vulnerability to cascading outages.
Thomas L Baldwin; Magdy S Tawfik; Miles McQueen
Definition: Cascading Outage | Open Energy Information
Cascading Outage Cascading Outage Jump to: navigation, search Dictionary.png Cascading Outage The uncontrolled successive loss of system elements triggered by an incident at any location. Cascading results in widespread electric service interruption that cannot be restrained from sequentially spreading beyond an area predetermined by studies.[1] View on Wikipedia Wikipedia Definition A cascading failure is a failure in a system of interconnected parts in which the failure of a part can trigger the failure of successive parts. Such a failure may happen in many types of systems, including power transmission, computer networking, finance and bridges. Cascading failures usually begin when one part of the system fails. When this happens, nearby nodes must then take up the slack for the failed component. This overloads
Outage management and health physics issue, 2007
The focus of the May-June issue is on outage management and health physics. Major articles/reports in this issue include: India: a potential commercial opportunity, a U.S. Department of Commerce Report, by Joe Neuhoff and Justin Rathke; The changing climate for nuclear energy, by Skip Bowman, Nuclear Energy Insitute; Selecting protective clothing, by J. Mark Price, Southern California Edison; and Succssful refurbishment outage, by Sudesh K. Gambhir, Omaha Public Power District. Industry innovation articles in this issue are: Containment radiation monitoring spiking, by Michael W. Lantz and Robert Routolo, Arizona Public Service Company; Improved outage performance, by Michael Powell and Troy Wilfong, Arizona Public Service Company, Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Station; Stop repacking valves and achieve leak-free performance, by Kenneth Hart, PPL Susquehanna LLC; and Head assembly upgrade package, by Timothy Petit, Dominion Nuclear.
Agnihotri, Newal (ed.)
1 On Downlink Transmission Without Transmit Channel State Information and With Outage Constraints
This paper investigates downlink transmission over a quasi-static fading Gaussian broadcast channel (BC), to model delay-sensitive applications over slowly time-varying fading channels. System performance is characterized by the outage capacity region. In contrast to most previous work, here the problem is studied under the key assumption that the transmitter knows only the probability distributions of the fading coefficients, not their realizations. For scalar-input channels, two coding schemes are studied. The first scheme is called blind dirty paper coding (B-DPC), which utilizes a robustness property of dirty paper coding to perform precoding at the transmitter. The second scheme is called statistical superposition coding (S-SC), in which each receiver adaptively performs successive decoding with the process statistically governed by the realized fading. Both B-DPC and S-SC schemes achieve the outage capacity region, which dominates the outage rate region of time-sharing, irrespective of the particular
Wenyi Zhang; Shiva Prasad Kotagiri; J. Nicholas Laneman; Senior Member
Outage managment and health physics issue, 2008
The focus of the May-June issue is on outage management and health physics. Major articles include: Outage optimization initiatives, by George B. Beam, AREVA NP, Inc.; New plant based on excellent track records, by Jim Scarola, Progress Energy; Meeting customer needs and providing environmental benefits, by Peter S. Hastings, Duke Energy; Plants with 3-D design, by Jack A. Bailey, Tennessee Valley Authority; and Highest quality with exceptional planning, by Jason A. Walls, Duke Energy. Industry innovation articles include: Integrated exposure reduction plan, by Ed Wolfe, Exelon; Performance-based radiation worker training, by Joe Giuffre and Timothy Vriezerma, American Electric Power.
Potomac River Project Outage Schedule Clarification | Department of Energy
Potomac River Project Outage Schedule Clarification Potomac River Project Outage Schedule Clarification Potomac River Project Outage Schedule Clarification Docket No. EO-05-01. Order No. 202-07-02: Based on the most current information we have for both circuits, the new outage dates are listed below: Outage Duration Feeder Out April 30, 2007 - June 1, 2007 Circuit 1 June 2, 2007 - July 1, 2007 Circuit 2 Potomac River Project Outage Schedule Clarification More Documents & Publications Re: Potomac River Generating Station Department of Energy, Case No. EO-05-01: Potomac Electric Power Company (PEPCO) evised plan for transmission outages for the 230 kV circuits Notification of Planned 230kV Outage at Potomac River Generating Station PEPCO Comments on Special Environmental Analysis For Actions Taken Under U.S. Department of Energy Emergency Orders Regarding Operation of the
Tracking Laser Coordinate Measurement System Application for Turbine Outage Activities
Tracking Laser Coordinate Measurement System Application for Turbine Outage Activities provides nuclear and fossil personnel with a faster and more accurate method for performing turbine measurement activities during an outage.
Market Assessment of Refinery Outages Planned for October 2009 ...
January fuel demand with availability of the refinery process units for distillate and gasoline production net of outages.
Fossil Power Plant Outage Scoping and Scope Control
This document provides detailed guidance for outage scope planning and control. It covers such topics as long-range business asset management tracking and inclusion into outage scope and contingency planning. It provides guidance on developing the outage plan, including typical criteria for the baseline budget, developing and using a monitoring plan and metrics, and developing an assessment plan for outage scope development and execution. The scope identification and approval processes are discussed as w...
Indication of Potential Cascading Outages Using Measurement Data
Many efforts have been made to avoid blackouts in North America since 1965. However, cascading outages leading to catastrophic blackouts continued to happen. This project focused on investigating a comprehensive monitoring and control framework for prediction, analysis, and mitigation of cascading outages and conducting research on the early indication of potential cascading outages using real-time measurement data.
A Preliminary Analysis of Network Outages During Hurricane Sandy
.2.3.*). To evaluate outages, we require that, historically, at least 10% of the addresses in the block reply to pingsA Preliminary Analysis of Network Outages During Hurricane Sandy USC/ISI Technical Report ISI, linquan, email@example.com ABSTRACT This document describes our analysis of Internet outages during
Heidemann, John
Maintain HCUs on-line, shorten refueling outages
This article examines how removing maintenance of hydraulic control units from the outage scope lets the outage focus available resources on critical-path items, saving significant time and money and enhancing capacity factors. Because of their cost impact, refueling outages are a prime focus of efforts to improve the competitive operation of nuclear powerplants. An approach drawing wide interest is reducing the outage work scope by performing on-line key tasks normally consigned to refueling outages. applying this approach to maintenance of hydraulic control units (HCUs) on boiling-water reactors (BWRs) can be extremely fruitful.
Bell, T.
River Project Outage Schedule Clarification River Project Outage Schedule Clarification Potomac River Project Outage Schedule Clarification Docket No. EO-05-01. Order No. 202-07-02: Based on the most current information we have for both circuits, the new outage dates are listed below: Outage Duration Feeder Out April 30, 2007 - June 1, 2007 Circuit 1 June 2, 2007 - July 1, 2007 Circuit 2 Potomac River Project Outage Schedule Clarification More Documents & Publications Re: Potomac River Generating Station Department of Energy, Case No. EO-05-01: Potomac Electric Power Company (PEPCO) evised plan for transmission outages for the 230 kV circuits PEPCO Comments on Special Environmental Analysis For Actions Taken Under U.S. Department of Energy Emergency Orders Regarding Operation of the Potomac River Generating Station in Alexandria, Virginia
North American Electric Reliability Council Power Outage Update |
Power Outage Update Power Outage Update North American Electric Reliability Council Power Outage Update The bulk electric transmission system in the United States and Canada has been restored and is operating reliably. Many of the generating units that tripped off line during the outage have returned to service and additional generating units are expected to return to service over the weekend. Virtually all customers have been returned to electric service, although some customers will continue to experience rotating outages due to generating capacity availability. North American Electric Reliability Council Power Outage Update More Documents & Publications Electric System Update: Sunday August 17, 2003 North American Electric Reliability Council Outage Announcement NORTH AMERICAN ELECTRIC RELIABILITY COUNCIL: Preliminary Disturbance Report
Outage management and health physics issue, 2009
The focus of the May-June issue is on outage management and health physics. Major articles include the following: Planning and scheduling to minimize refueling outage, by Pat McKenna, AmerenUE; Prioritizing safety, quality and schedule, by Tom Sharkey, Dominion; Benchmarking to high standards, by Margie Jepson, Energy Nuclear; Benchmarking against U.S. standards, by Magnox North, United Kingdom; Enabling suppliers for new build activity, by Marcus Harrington, GE Hitachi Nuclear Energy; Identifying, cultivating and qualifying suppliers, by Thomas E. Silva, AREVA NP; Creating new U.S. jobs, by Francois Martineau, Areva NP. Industry innovation articles include: MSL Acoustic source load reduction, by Amir Shahkarami, Exelon Nuclear; Dual Methodology NDE of CRDM nozzles, by Michael Stark, Dominion Nuclear; and Electronic circuit board testing, by James Amundsen, FirstEnergy Nuclear Operating Company. The plant profile article is titled The future is now, by Julia Milstead, Progress Energy Service Company, LLC.
Outage management and health physics issue, 2006
The focus of the May-June issue is on outage management and health physics. Major articles/reports in this issue include: A design with experience for the U.S., by Michael J. Wallace, Constellation Generation Group; Hope to be among the first, by Randy Hutchinson, Entergy Nuclear; Plans to file COLs in 2008, by Garry Miller, Progress Energy; Evolution of ICRP's recommendations, by Lars-Erik Holm, ICRP; European network on education and training in radiological protection, by Michele Coeck, SCK-CEN, Belgium; Outage managment: an important tool for improving nuclear power plant performance, by Thomas Mazour and Jiri Mandula, IAEA, Austria; and Plant profile: Exploring new paths to excellence, by Anne Thomas, Exelon Nuclear.
Advanced Outage and Control Center: Strategies for Nuclear Plant Outage Work Status Capabilities
The research effort is a part of the Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program. LWRS is a research and development program sponsored by the Department of Energy, performed in close collaboration with industry to provide the technical foundations for licensing and managing the long-term, safe and economical operation of current nuclear power plants. The LWRS Program serves to help the US nuclear industry adopt new technologies and engineering solutions that facilitate the continued safe operation of the plants and extension of the current operating licenses. The Outage Control Center (OCC) Pilot Project was directed at carrying out the applied research for development and pilot of technology designed to enhance safe outage and maintenance operations, improve human performance and reliability, increase overall operational efficiency, and improve plant status control. Plant outage management is a high priority concern for the nuclear industry from cost and safety perspectives. Unfortunately, many of the underlying technologies supporting outage control are the same as those used in the 1980�s. They depend heavily upon large teams of staff, multiple work and coordination locations, and manual administrative actions that require large amounts of paper. Previous work in human reliability analysis suggests that many repetitive tasks, including paper work tasks, may have a failure rate of 1.0E-3 or higher (Gertman, 1996). With between 10,000 and 45,000 subtasks being performed during an outage (Gomes, 1996), the opportunity for human error of some consequence is a realistic concern. Although a number of factors exist that can make these errors recoverable, reducing and effectively coordinating the sheer number of tasks to be performed, particularly those that are error prone, has the potential to enhance outage efficiency and safety. Additionally, outage management requires precise coordination of work groups that do not always share similar objectives. Outage managers are concerned with schedule and cost, union workers are concerned with performing work that is commensurate with their trade, and support functions (safety, quality assurance, and radiological controls, etc.) are concerned with performing the work within the plants controls and procedures. Approaches to outage management should be designed to increase the active participation of work groups and managers in making decisions that closed the gap between competing objectives and the potential for error and process inefficiency.
Gregory Weatherby
RESOLVED: Projectb filesystem outage July 9, 2012
RESOLVED: Projectb filesystem outage July 9, 2012 RESOLVED: Projectb filesystem outage July 9, 2012 RESOLVED: Projectb filesystem outage July 9, 2012 July 9, 2012 (0 Comments) The projectb filesystem had a hardware failure that potentially generated I/O errors. The filesystem logs indicate that the earliest abnormal event on the filesystem occurred at 9:19AM and the filesystem was taken down for maintenance at 10:42AM. The filesystem returned to service at 11:20AM. Jobs running on the cluster would not have been able to read from or write to the projectb filesystem between 10:42AM and 11:20AM. Between 9:19AM and 10:42AM one out of the 20 GPFS controllers on projectb was down, and didn't failover (as it should have). This means: 1/20 file I/O operations could have failed between 9:19AM and 10:42AM If your job was performing a large number of short reads and writes, then
Summary of Market Assessment of Upcoming Planned Refinery Outages
Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)
Summary of Market Assessment of Upcoming Planned Refinery Outages Summary of Market Assessment of Upcoming Planned Refinery Outages Summary of Market Assessment of Upcoming Planned Refinery Outages Market Assessment of Upcoming Planned Refinery Outages, December 2008 - March 2009 reviews planned U.S. refinery outages from December 2008 though March 2009 in order to identify any regions where outages might create enough supply pressure to impact prices significantly. As required under Section 804 of the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (Pub. L. 110-140), this report reviews the supply implications of planned refinery outages for December 2008 through March 2009, which covers the winter period when demand for distillate fuels (diesel and heating oil) is high. As a result, emphasis in this report is on distillate rather than gasoline. Refinery outages are the result of planned maintenance and unplanned outages. Maintenance is usually scheduled during the times when demand is lowest - in the first quarter and again in the fall. Unplanned outages, which occur for many reasons including mechanical failures, fires, and flooding, can occur at any time.
Application of Standard Maintenance Windows in PHWR Outage
The concept of Standard Maintenance Windows has been widely used in the planned outage of light water reactor in the world. However, due to the specific feature of Pressurized Heavy Water Reactor (PHWR), it has not come to a consensus for the PHWR owners to adopt Standard Maintenance Windows for planned outage aiming at the optimization of outage duration. Third Qinshan Nuclear Power Company (TQNPC), with their experience gained in the previous outages and with reference to other PHWR power plants, has identified a set of Standard Maintenance Windows for planned outage. It can be applied to similar PHWR plants and with a few windows that are specific to Qinshan Phase III NPP. The use of these Standard Maintenance Windows in planned outage has been proved to be effective in control shutdown nuclear safety, minimize the unavailability of safety system, improve the efficient utilization of outage duration, and improved the flexibility of outage schedule in the case of emergency issue, which forced the revision of outage schedule. It has also formed a solid foundation for benchmarking. The identification of Standard Maintenance Windows and its application will be discussed with relevant cases for the common improvement of outage duration. (author)
Fuming Jiang [Third Qinshan Nuclear Power Company, Ltd. (China)
Definition: Outage Detection/Reporting | Open Energy Information
Outage Detection/Reporting Outage Detection/Reporting Jump to: navigation, search Dictionary.png Outage Detection/Reporting A system utilizing smart meters and AMI that can notify a utility of customer power outages when the power to meters is interrupted. Generally speaking, this can be done by utilizing meters that can send a "last gasp" signal to the head-end system upon losing power, or by periodically polling meters to check status.[1] Related Terms power, advanced metering infrastructure, system References ↑ https://www.smartgrid.gov/category/technology/outage_detectionreporting [[Cat Like Like You like this.Sign Up to see what your friends like. egory: Smart Grid Definitionssmart grid,smart grid, |Template:BASEPAGENAME]]smart grid,smart grid, Retrieved from "http://en.openei.org/w/index.php?title=Definition:Outage_Detection/Reporting&oldid=502576
MIMO ARQ with Multi-bit Feedback: Outage Analysis
We study the asymptotic outage performance of incremental redundancy automatic repeat request (INR-ARQ) transmission over the multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) block-fading channels with discrete input constellations. We first show that transmission with random codes using a discrete signal constellation across all transmit antennas achieves the optimal outage diversity given by the Singleton bound. We then analyze the optimal SNR-exponent and outage diversity of INR-ARQ transmission over the MIMO block-fading channel. We show that a significant gain in outage diversity is obtained by providing more than one bit feedback at each ARQ round. Thus, the outage performance of INR-ARQ transmission can be remarkably improved with minimal additional overhead. A suboptimal feedback and power adaptation rule, which achieves the optimal outage diversity, is proposed for MIMO INR-ARQ, demonstrating the benefits provided by multi-bit feedback.
Nguyen, Khoa D; Fabregas, Albert Guillen i; Letzepis, Nick
Plant maintenance and outage management issue, 2005
The focus of the January-February issue is on plant maintenance and outage managment. Major articles/reports in this issue include: Dawn of a new era, by Joe Colvin, Nuclear Energy Institute (NEI); Plant profile: Beloyarsk NPP, Russia, by Nikolai Oshkanov, Beloyarsk NPP, Russia; Improving economic performance, by R. Spiegelberg-Planner, John De Mella, and Marius Condu, IAEA; A model for improving performance, by Pet Karns, MRO Software; ASME codes and standards, by Shannon Burke, ASME International; and, Refurbishment programs, by Craig S. Irish, Nuclear Logistics, Inc.
Nuclear outages begin to increase with the start of the ...
Short-Term Energy Outlook ... Search EIA.gov. A-Z Index; ... several units began to reduce their output to enter into refueling outages, ...
Nuclear outages back within typical range since July following ...
U.S. nuclear generator outages were above the levels of the previous four years in the second quarter of 2011 but have returned to more typical ...
Market Assessment of Refinery Outages Planned for October 2010 ...
distillation and FCC unit outages are projected to be at typical to above typical levels in the second half of 2010, with some months significantly above average in ...
Market Assessment of Refinery Outages Planned for March 2010 ...
DOE/EIA-0641(2010)/1 Market Assessment of Refinery Outages Planned for March 2010 through June 2010 March 2010 Energy Information Administration
Power outages often spur questions around burying power lines ...
Smart grid technology, which would allow a utility to pinpoint problems, divert power through other circuits to minimize outages, and optimize crew deployments is ...
Minimum-outage broadcast in wireless networks with fading channels
We consider the problem of cooperative broadcasting for minimum outage in wireless networks. We consider wireless multihop broadcast as a set of transmitters that transmit in a certain order. The receiving nodes are able to combine all the previous transmissions ... Keywords: broadcast, multicast, outage, wireless networks
Tolga Girici; Gulizar Duygu Kurt
New tensioning equipment saves critical path time in nuclear outage
This article examines the selection and application of new tensioning equipment for TVA`s Browns Ferry Nuclear Plant. The new device would reduce refueling outage time and radiation exposure, and require fewer personnel to operate. Results of the equipment performance during the refueling outage and problems encountered and resolved are described.
Homeowners: Respond to Power Outages | Department of Energy
Power Outages Power Outages Homeowners: Respond to Power Outages Homeowners: Respond to Power Outages After a disaster, electric utilities and government officials will first work to restore power to critical infrastructure like power plants and transmission lines, water treatment facilities, and telecommunications networks, and also to hospitals, critical care facilities, and emergency response agencies. It may take several days or even weeks to restore power to individual homeowners, but here's what you can do to help prepare and recover power more quickly: Charge mobile devices-If you have power, charge your cell phones, laptops, and other mobile devices so they'll have the maximum amount of battery power stored in the event of a power outage. These devices will help you communicate with your power company, and they'll help you stay
A stochastic model for the measurement of electricity outage costs
The measurement of customer outage costs has recently become an important subject of research for electric utilities. This paper uses a stochastic dynamic model as the starting point in developing a market-based method for the evaluation of outage costs. Specifically, the model postulates that once an electricity outage occurs, all production activity stops. Full production is resumed once the electricity outage is over. This process repeats itself indefinitely. The business customer maximizes his expected discounted profits (the expected value of the firm), taking into account his limited ability to respond to repeated random electricity outages. The model is applied to 11 industrial branches in Israel. The estimates exhibit a large variation across branches. 34 refs., 3 tabs.
Grosfeld-Nir, A.; Tishler, A. (Tel Aviv Univ. (Israel))
U.S. - Canada Power System Outage Task Force: Final Report on...
- Canada Power System Outage Task Force: Final Report on the Implementation of Task Force Recommendations U.S. - Canada Power System Outage Task Force: Final Report on the...
PERSPECTIVES Scenarios &
Buildings Transport Industry Transformation Power Generation ACT Scenarios 2050 +137% #12;INTERNATIONAL Buildings Transport Industry Transformation Power Generation ACT Scenarios 2050 +137% +6% #12;INTERNATIONAL Baseline 2030 Baseline 2050 Map No CCS Other Buildings Transport Industry Transformation Power Generation
Technology Integration Initiative In Support of Outage Management
Plant outage management is a high priority concern for the nuclear industry from cost and safety perspectives. Often, command and control during outages is maintained in the outage control center where many of the underlying technologies supporting outage control are the same as those used in the 1980�s. This research reports on the use of advanced integrating software technologies and hand held mobile devices as a means by which to reduce cycle time, improve accuracy, and enhance transparency among outage team members. This paper reports on the first phase of research supported by the DOE Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program that is performed in close collaboration with industry to examine the introduction of newly available technology allowing for safe and efficient outage performance. It is thought that this research will result in: improved resource management among various plant stakeholder groups, reduced paper work, and enhanced overall situation awareness for the outage control center management team. A description of field data collection methods, including personnel interview data, success factors, end-user evaluation and integration of hand held devices in achieving an integrated design are also evaluated. Finally, the necessity of obtaining operations cooperation support in field studies and technology evaluation is acknowledged.
Gregory Weatherby; David Gertman
1 Outage-Efficient Downlink Transmission Without Transmit Channel State Information
This paper investigates downlink transmission over a quasi-static fading Gaussian broadcast channel (BC), to model delay-sensitive applications over slowly time-varying fading channels. System performance is characterized by outage achievable rate regions. In contrast to most previous work, here the problem is studied under the key assumption that the transmitter only knows the probability distributions of the fading coefficients, but not their realizations. For scalar-input channels, two coding schemes are proposed. The first scheme is called blind dirty paper coding (B-DPC), which utilizes a robustness property of dirty paper coding to perform precoding at the transmitter. The second scheme is called statistical superposition coding (S-SC), in which each receiver adaptively performs successive decoding with the process statistically governed by the realized fading. Both B-DPC and S-SC schemes lead to the same outage achievable rate region, which always dominates that of time-sharing, irrespective of the particular fading distributions. The S-SC scheme can be extended to BCs with multiple transmit antennas. Index Terms Broadcast channel, (blind) dirty paper coding, downlink, non-ergodic fading, outage achievable rate region, quasi-static fading, (statistical) superposition coding
Economic Benefits of Increasing Electric Grid Resilience to Weather Outages
Economic Benefits of Increasing Electric Grid Resilience to Weather Economic Benefits of Increasing Electric Grid Resilience to Weather Outages Economic Benefits of Increasing Electric Grid Resilience to Weather Outages In June 2011, President Obama released A Policy Framework for the 21st Century Grid which set out a four-pillared strategy for modernizing the electric grid. The initiative directed billions of dollars toward investments in 21st century smart grid technologies focused at increasing the grid's efficiency, reliability, and resilience, and making it less vulnerable to weather-related outages and reducing the time it takes to restore power after an outage occurs. Grid resilience is increasingly important as climate change increases the frequency and intensity of severe weather. Greenhouse gas emissions are elevating air and water temperatures around the world. Scientific research
A statistical model for risk management of electric outage forecasts
Risk management of power outages caused by severe weather events, such as hurricanes, tornadoes, and thunderstorms, plays an important role in electric utility distribution operations. Damage prediction based on weather forecasts on an appropriate spatial ...
H. Li; L. A. Treinish; J. R. M. Hosking
Abstract--Integration of asset management and outage management tasks for distribution system is proposed and
and evaluation of the influence of optimization on the cost of system outage is elaborated. Potential benefit as the maximum tolerable value. #12;7 V. OPTIMIZED OUTAGE COST THROUGH RISK-BASED ASSESSMENT 1. Optimized outage cost through risk-based assessment Risk-based analysis is used to estimate outage cost in this paper
Kezunovic, Mladen
Development of Methodologies for Technology Deployment for Advanced Outage Control Centers that Improve Outage Coordination, Problem Resolution and Outage Risk Management
This research effort is a part of the Light-Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program, which is a research and development (R&D) program sponsored by Department of Energy (DOE) and performed in close collaboration with industry R&D programs that provides the technical foundations for licensing and managing the long-term, safe, and economical operation of current nuclear power plants. The LWRS program serves to help the U.S. nuclear industry adopt new technologies and engineering solutions that facilitate the continued safe operation of the plants and extension of the current operating licenses. The long term viability of existing nuclear power plants in the U.S. will depend upon maintaining high capacity factors, avoiding nuclear safety issues and reducing operating costs. The slow progress in the construction on new nuclear power plants has placed in increased importance on maintaining the output of the current fleet of nuclear power plants. Recently expanded natural gas production has placed increased economic pressure on nuclear power plants due to lower cost competition. Until recently, power uprate projects had steadily increased the total output of the U.S. nuclear fleet. Errors made during power plant upgrade projects have now removed three nuclear power plants from the U.S. fleet and economic considerations have caused the permanent shutdown of a fourth plant. Additionally, several utilities have cancelled power uprate projects citing economic concerns. For the past several years net electrical generation from U.S. nuclear power plants has been declining. One of few remaining areas where significant improvements in plant capacity factors can be made is in minimizing the duration of refueling outages. Managing nuclear power plant outages is a complex and difficult task. Due to the large number of complex tasks and the uncertainty that accompanies them, outage durations routinely exceed the planned duration. The ability to complete an outage on or near schedule depends upon the performance of the outage management organization. During an outage, the outage control center (OCC) is the temporary command center for outage managers and provides several critical functions for the successful execution of the outage schedule. Essentially, the OCC functions to facilitate information inflow, assist outage management in processing information and to facilitate the dissemination of information to stakeholders. Currently, outage management activities primarily rely on telephone communication, face to face reports of status and periodic briefings in the OCC. Much of the information displayed in OCCs is static and out of date requiring an evaluation to determine if it is still valid. Several advanced communication and collaboration technologies have shown promise for facilitating the information flow into, across and out of the OCC. Additionally, advances in the areas of mobile worker technologies, computer based procedures and electronic work packages can be leveraged to improve the availability of real time status to outage managers.
Shawn St. Germain; Ronald Farris; Heather Medeman
Igneous Event Scenario
Previous risk analyses by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) indicate that a future igneous event at Yucca Mountain could lead to significant increases in calculated probability-weighted, mean-annual dose rates. A technical report is being prepared by EPRI that examines the various steps and sub-processes inherent in such a scenario for a repository at Yucca Mountain. Specific steps that are being evaluated include: � determination of the probability...
Lassoing Line Outages in the Smart Power Grid
Fast and accurate unveiling of power line outages is of paramount importance not only for preventing faults that may lead to blackouts, but also for routine monitoring and control tasks of the smart grid, including state estimation and optimal power flow. Existing approaches are either challenged by the \\emph{combinatorial complexity} issues involved, and are thus limited to identifying single- and double-line outages; or, they invoke less pragmatic assumptions such as \\emph{conditionally independent} phasor angle measurements available across the grid. Using only a subset of voltage phasor angle data, the present paper develops a near real-time algorithm for identifying multiple line outages at the affordable complexity of solving a quadratic program via block coordinate descent iterations. The novel approach relies on reformulating the DC linear power flow model as a \\emph{sparse} overcomplete expansion, and leveraging contemporary advances in compressive sampling and variable selection using the least-abso...
Zhu, Hao
A Review of Power Outages and Restoration Following the June 2012 Derecho
Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE))
This report reviews power outages and restoration efforts following the June 29, 2012 Derecho and compares them to outages and restoration efforts following other spring and summer storms in the...
Notification of Planned 230kV Outage at Potomac River Generating...
to provide notification of any and all 230kV planned and unplanned outages at Potomac River Generating Station. Notification of Planned 230kV Outage at Potomac River Generating...
Mitigation of Animal-Caused Outages For Distribution Lines and Substations
A significant number of electric outages throughout North America are caused by animals -- mammals, birds, snakes, etc. These animal-caused outages are increasingly common in both urban and residential areas. By taking a pro-active approach to mitigating outages, utilities will spare the lives of wildlife and address the increasing pressures from environmental groups and concerned utility customers. This document describes a study designed to mitigate animal-caused outages for distribution lines and subs...
96 IEEE power & energy magazine march/april 2005 THE MASSIVE POWER OUTAGE OF
of power outages. These devices, which came into play during last year's blackout, typically perform for more outages and the increased cost of out- ages at the consumer level. We can-- and must96 IEEE power & energy magazine march/april 2005 T THE MASSIVE POWER OUTAGE OF August 2003
Amin, S. Massoud
A Framework and Review of Customer Outage Costs: Integration and Analysis of
by Region, Season, Day of Week, and Year 36 Table 5-2. Average Outage Costs by Duration 36 Table 5, if a calculation of the average outage cost for a given year is calculated it would be heavily influenced and Day of Week and Year of Study This problem surfaces for many of the calculations of outage costs
Environmental determinants of unscheduled residential outages in the electrical power distribution of Phoenix, Arizona
problem. We model electric interruptions using outage data between the years of 2002 and 2005 across, and interactions between the two. We model electric interruptions using outage data for the years 2002;22:11721. [14] Fritts TH. Economic costs of electrical system instability and power outages caused by snakes
Nuclear Maintenance Applications Center: Effective Refueling Outage Preparation and Execution Guidance--Revision to 1014480
This report provides updated, current guidance to assist outage managers and teams during preparation and execution phases of a nuclear refueling outage. Included is guidance on how the outage activities support long-range and strategic plans developed by the site or fleet of units.
Confidence Probability versus Detection Probability
In a discovery sampling activity the auditor seeks to vet an inventory by measuring (or inspecting) a random sample of items from the inventory. When the auditor finds every sample item in compliance, he must then make a confidence statement about the whole inventory. For example, the auditor might say: ''We believe that this inventory of 100 items contains no more than 5 defectives with 95% confidence.'' Note this is a retrospective statement in that it asserts something about the inventory after the sample was selected and measured. Contrast this to the prospective statement: ''We will detect the existence of more than 5 defective items in this inventory with 95% probability.'' The former uses confidence probability while the latter uses detection probability. For a given sample size, the two probabilities need not be equal, indeed they could differ significantly. Both these probabilities critically depend on the auditor's prior belief about the number of defectives in the inventory and how he defines non-compliance. In other words, the answer strongly depends on how the question is framed.
Axelrod, M
Std Dev Cost Per Annual Cost Per kWh Usage Peak kW AverageStd Dev Cost Per Annual Cost Per kWh Usage Peak kW Average3-2. Logged Outage Cost per Annual kWh Figure 3-3. Logged
Further Notice of 230kV Circuit Planned Outages | Department of Energy
Further Notice of 230kV Circuit Planned Outages Further Notice of 230kV Circuit Planned Outages Further Notice of 230kV Circuit Planned Outages Docket No. EO-05-01. Order No. 202-05-03: Pursuant 10 the United States Department of Energy "DOE") Order No. 102-05-3, issued December 20, 2005 ("DOE Potomac River Order''), Pepco hereby files this Further Notice Of 230kV Circuit Planned Outages serving the Potomac River Substation, and through thaI station, the District of Columbia. Further Notice of 230kV Circuit Planned Outages More Documents & Publications Re: Potomac River Generating Station Department of Energy, Case No. EO-05-01: Potomac Electric Power Company (PEPCO) Concerning Planned Outages of the 230 kV circuits Docket No. EO-05-01: Further Notice of 230kV Circuit Planned Outages
Notice of Unplanned Outage at the Mirant Potomac River Plant | Department
Unplanned Outage at the Mirant Potomac River Plant Unplanned Outage at the Mirant Potomac River Plant Notice of Unplanned Outage at the Mirant Potomac River Plant Docket No. EO-05-01. Order No. 202-05-03: Pursuant to the United States Department of Energy ("DOE") Order No_ 202-05-3, issued December 20, 2005 ("DOE Potomac River Order"), Pepco hereby files this notice of an unplanned outage of one of the 230kV circuits serving the Potomac River Substation, and through that station, the District of Columbia. Notice of Unplanned Outage at the Mirant Potomac River Plant More Documents & Publications Re: Potomac River Generating Station Department of Energy, Case No. EO-05-01: Potomac Electric Power Company (PEPCO) Concerning Planned Outages of the 230 kV circuits Further Notice of 230kV Circuit Planned Outages
Notification of Planned 230kV Outage at Potomac River Generating Station |
Notification of Planned 230kV Outage at Potomac River Generating Notification of Planned 230kV Outage at Potomac River Generating Station Notification of Planned 230kV Outage at Potomac River Generating Station Docket No. EO-05-01. In accordance with DOE Order No. 202-05-03 Pepco is required to provide notification of any and all 230kV planned outages at Potomac River Generating Station. On Tuesday February 20, 2007 Potomac Electric Power Company (Pepco) will be taking a planned outage on the 23106 high voltage circuit between the Palmer's Corner Substation and the Potomac River Generating Station. Notification of Planned 230kV Outage at Potomac River Generating Station More Documents & Publications Re: Potomac River Generating Station Department of Energy Case No. EO-05-01: Advanced Notice of Power Outages. Special Environmental Analysis For Actions Taken under U.S. Department of
Further Notice of 230kV Circuit Planned Outages Further Notice of 230kV Circuit Planned Outages Further Notice of 230kV Circuit Planned Outages Docket No. EO-05-01. Order No. 202-05-03: Pursuant 10 the United States Department of Energy "DOE") Order No. 102-05-3, issued December 20, 2005 ("DOE Potomac River Order''), Pepco hereby files this Further Notice Of 230kV Circuit Planned Outages serving the Potomac River Substation, and through thaI station, the District of Columbia. Further Notice of 230kV Circuit Planned Outages More Documents & Publications Docket No. EO-05-01: Further Notice of 230kV Circuit Planned Outages Re: Potomac River Generating Station Department of Energy, Case No. EO-05-01: Potomac Electric Power Company (PEPCO) Concerning Planned Outages of the 230 kV circuits
HPSS Outage Tue Mar 19 - Fri Mar 22
HPSS HPSS Outage Tue Mar 19 - Fri Mar 22 HPSS Outage Tue Mar 19 - Fri Mar 22 March 12, 2013 by Francesca Verdier (0 Comments) The NERSC HPSS "User" system (archive.nersc.gov) will be down for four days from Tue Mar 19 07:00 to Fri Mar 22 17:00). The system will be upgraded from HPSS version 6.2 to version 7.3. This new version of the HPSS server software is not compatible with current GridFTP servers. This means the NERSC HPSS systems will not support any grid-based transfer methods (including GlobusOnline) following the upgrade. We expect to install a fix for this problem during a scheduled downtime by the end of April. This is a major upgrade that will require users of the HPSS User system to switch to new versions of the HPSS client software tools hsi and htar.
Common Information Model Meter Outage Nominal Interoperability Test Procedure
The CIM Meter Outage Nominal Interoperability Test Procedure is one in a series of EPRI CIM Interoperability Test Procedures (ETIPs) created by EPRI whose purpose is to thoroughly document the actors, interfaces, and test steps for the interoperability testing of specific parts of the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) Common Information Model (CIM) standard. The Test Procedures are initially being used for EPRI demonstration tests and are intended, over time, to form the basis of a set of C...
Examination of the Exacter Outage-Avoidance System
A routine inspection program is one tool that utilities can use to reduce failures on their circuits and minimize customer outages. By identifying problems for repair before they develop into failures, an inspection program can be a cost-effective method for enhancing the quality and reliability of electric service. The present methods used to detect and locate underperforming power system hardware can be time consuming and can involve physical complexities and require line crews with bucket trucks to tr...
Model validation for the August 10, 1996 WSCC system outage
A major power outage occurred in western North America on August 10, 1996. In this paper the authors describe simulation of the disturbance using a transient stability program. Initially, the sequence of events was simulated using the standard WSCC dynamic data base, and the simulations did not agree with the disturbance recordings. Several model additions and data modifications were made before the simulations approximated the disturbance recordings. These model changes are discussed in the paper.
Kosterev, D.N.; Taylor, C.W.; Mittelstadt, W.A. [Bonneville Power Administration, Portland, OR (United States). Transmission Operations and Planning
Abstract--Cascading outages can cause large blackouts, and a variety of methods are emerging to study this challenging topic.
1 Abstract-- Cascading outages can cause large blackouts, and a variety of methods are emerging Analysis, Risk Analysis, Preventing Cascades. I. INTRODUCTION A cascading outage is a sequence of events component outages (based on [1] and [2]). In some cases cascading outages halt before the sequence results
Hines, Paul
Risk Assessment of Cascading Outages: Methodologies and Challenges
Abstract- This paper is a result of ongoing activity carried out by Understanding, Prediction, Mitigation and Restoration of Cascading Failures Task Force under IEEE Computer Analytical Methods Subcommittee (CAMS). The task force's previous papers are focused on general aspects of cascading outages such as understanding, prediction, prevention and restoration from cascading failures. This is the first of two new papers, which extend this previous work to summarize the state of the art in cascading failure risk analysis methodologies and modeling tools. This paper is intended to be a reference document to summarize the state of the art in the methodologies for performing risk assessment of cascading outages caused by some initiating event(s). A risk assessment should cover the entire potential chain of cascades starting with the initiating event(s) and ending with some final condition(s). However, this is a difficult task and heuristic approaches and approximations have been suggested. This paper discusses different approaches to this and suggests directions for future development of methodologies. The second paper summarizes the state of the art in modeling tools for risk assessment of cascading outages.
Vaiman, Marianna; Bell, Keith; Chen, Yousu; Chowdhury, Badrul; Dobson, Ian; Hines, Paul; Papic, Milorad; Miller, Stephen; Zhang, Pei
Multipurpose Outage at a Midsize, Resource-Limited Nonpower Reactor
The University of Florida Training Reactor (UFTR) is a light water-cooled, graphite and light water-moderated, modified Argonaut-type reactor licensed to operate at steady-state power levels up to 100 kW. The UFTR was subject to a unique and lengthy voluntary outage beginning in May 1998 following several months of gradual increases in the normal critical position totaling {approx}0.002 {Delta}k/k. The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) was updated periodically on the facility status and visited the facility twice during the outage and once since restart to normal operations on August 17, 1999. Various potential causes of this reactivity anomaly were identified. After investigation, each of these causes was eliminated with no specific cause ever identified. Despite all the inherent limitations and especially because of the difficulty of core access, this entire outage was conducted with the perspective of relicensing in 2002. Areas specifically addressed included compensating efforts to preclude loss of user clientele, acquisition of data for facilitating the upcoming conversion from high-enriched uranium (HEU) to low-enriched uranium (LEU), and development of a surveillance plan relicensing database to support the planned license renewal. In summary, this nonpower reactor facility with limited staff has been successful in all three areas.
William G. Vernetson
An Analysis of loss of Decay Heat Removal Trends and Initialing Event Frequencies (1989-1988): Outage Risk Assessment and Management (ORAM) Technology
Operating experience shows that U.S. nuclear industry initiatives have been effective at reducing the frequency and severity of reactor coolant system loss of inventory and decay heat removal incidents during shutdown. This report -- part of EPRI's Outage Risk Assessment and Management (ORAM) technology transfer efforts -- documents operating experience from 1989-1998 and compiles initiating event frequency and recovery probabilities for use in support of probabilistic shutdown safety studies.
An Analysis of Loss of Decay Heat Removal Trends and Initiating Event Frequencies (1989 - 2000): Outage Risk Assessment and Manageme nt (ORAM) Technology
Operating experience shows that U.S. nuclear industry initiatives have been effective at reducing the long-term frequency and severity of reactor coolant system loss of inventory and decay heat removal incidents during shutdown. This report -- part of EPRI's Outage Risk Assessment and Management (ORAM (TM)) technology transfer efforts -- documents operating experience from 1989-2000 and compiles initiating event frequency and recovery probabilities for use in support of probabilistic shutdown safety stud...
Docket No. EO-05-01: Further Notice of 230kV Circuit Planned Outages |
Further Notice of 230kV Circuit Planned Further Notice of 230kV Circuit Planned Outages Docket No. EO-05-01: Further Notice of 230kV Circuit Planned Outages Docket No. EO-05-01. Pursuant to the United States Department of Energy Order No. 202-05-03, issued December 20, 2005 directing Mirant Potomac River to generate electricity at Potomac River Generating Station, PEPCO hereby files this Further Notice of 230kV Circuit Planned Outages. Docket No. EO-05-01: Further Notice of 230kV Circuit Planned Outages More Documents & Publications Further Notice of 230kV Circuit Planned Outages Re: Potomac River Generating Station Department of Energy, Case No. EO-05-01: Potomac Electric Power Company (PEPCO) Concerning Planned Outages of the 230 kV circuits Re: Potomac River Generating Station Department of Energy Case No.
Study, outlines why outages go long, short, or on-time
A recent report by a nuclear industry professional, based on a survey of outage managers at US nuclear power plants, declares that [open quotes]preplanned outage schedules appear to be grossly inaccurate, and the outage management planners and schedulers do not have a grasp of the requirements and/or the resources needed to complete the actual activities on schedule.[close quotes] It declares that [open quotes]the scheduled duration of a planned outage must be realistic.[close quotes] The study identifies personnel, planning and scheduling, and equipment/hardware as [open quotes]the primary reasons why refueling outages and outage activities finished ahead of, right on, or behind schedule.[close quotes
Not Available
Outage Closeout and Unit Restart Guidelines for Fossil-Fueled Power Plants
Outage closeout planning and execution and successful restart are as important as the efforts going into an outage. Detailed planning and execution are required to ensure that schedules are met, tests are completed in a timely fashion, training is completed, and that lessons learned are captured for use in future outages, both planned and forced. Effective closure and restart activities result in a smoother return to service and more reliable operation. This project is based upon collective industry expe...
Department of Energy Order No. 202-05-03 Notice of Planned Outages...
Outages, in Sequence During January 2006 More Documents & Publications Re: Potomac River Generating Station Department of Energy, Case No. EO-05-01: Potomac Electric Power...
Draft!07"18"2011! 1 Turning the Tide on Outages1
mitigate outages during the harshest weather, terrorist attacks, or natural disasters. This system into IIT Main Campus's current infrastructure. The initiative's approach is to implement local microgrids
The next planned outage on xxxxx high voltage circuit between Palmers Corner Substation and the Potomac River Generating Station is scheduled for Sunday, June 3, 2007 and will...
A Study of Outage Management Practices at Selected U.S. Nuclear Plants
This paper presents insights gained from a study of the outage management practices at a number of U.S. nuclear plants. The objective of the study was to conduct an in-depth review of the current practices of outage management at these selected plants and identify important factors that have contributed to the recent success of their outage performance. Two BWR-4, three BWR-6, and two 3-loop Westinghouse PWR plants were selected for this survey. The results of this study can be used to formulate outage improvement efforts for nuclear plants in other countries. (author)
Lin, James C. [ABSG Consulting Inc., Irvine, CA (United States)
Synthesis of power plant outage schedules. Final technical report, April 1995-January 1996
This document provides a report on the creation of domain theories in the power plant outage domain. These were developed in conjunction with the creation of a demonstration system of advanced scheduling technology for the outage problem. In 1994 personnel from Rome Laboratory (RL), Kaman Science (KS), Kestrel Institute, and the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) began a joint project to develop scheduling tools for power plant outage activities. This report describes our support for this joint effort. The project uses KIDS (Kestrel Interactive Development System) to generate schedulers from formal specifications of the power plant domain outage activities.
Smith, D.R.
Characteristics and trends in a National Study of Consumer Outage Costs
cost per event Outage cost per kWh Peak kW demand Annualcost per event Outage cost per kWh Peak kW demand Annualfrom $3,124 to $1,369. The cost per kWh and cost per peak kW
Lawton, Leora; Eto, Joseph H.; Katz, Aaron; Sullivan, Michael
Current industry practices in bulk transmission outage data collection and analysis
This paper focuses on the state-of-the-art bulk transmission outage data collection and analysis. Included in this discussion is the motivation for interest, single/multiple outage event analysis, and identification of where to obtain data on weather conditions which impact the performance of bulk transmission.
Market Assessment of Planned Refinery Outages March June 2009
09)/1 09)/1 Market Assessment of Planned Refinery Outages March - June 2009 March 2009 Energy Information Administration Office of Oil and Gas U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 This report was prepared by the Energy Information Administration, the independent statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. The information contained herein should be attributed to the Energy Information Administration and should not be construed as advocating or reflecting any policy position of the U.S. Department of Energy or any other organization. Service Reports are prepared by the Energy Information Administration upon special request and are based on assumptions specified by the requestor.
Microsoft Word - 112706 Final Outage Letter PUBLIC.doc
CRITICAL ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE INFORMATION CRITICAL ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE INFORMATION REMOVED FOR PRIVILEGED TREATMENT November 27, 2006 Lawrence Mansueti Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability U.S. Department of Energy Rm. 8H-033 1000 Independence Avenue Washington, D.C. 20585 Re: Potomac River Generating Station Department of Energy Case No. EO-05-01 Dear Mr. Mansueti: Potomac Electric Power Company ("Pepco"), on behalf of itself and PJM Interconnection, L.L.C. ("PJM"), is providing you with information regarding the planned transmission outages that are scheduled for the upcoming months. In accordance with its internal procedures developed pursuant to the December 20, 2005 order in the captioned proceeding, Order No. 202-05-03 ("December 20 Order"), Pepco will provide
Minimize substation outage time by maximizing in-service testing
Most substation maintenance work is based on fixed schedules rather than on known need. Scheduled maintenance is essential and cannot be eliminated entirely, but priority should be given to equipment known to be deteriorated or defective. It makes no sense to perform costly, scheduled outage maintenance work when other equipment is failing because of undetected defects. The following should be included as major elements in an energized testing program: visual inspections; infrared inspection; corona inspection; percent oxygen in gas samples drawn from nitrogen-blanketed transformers; percent total combustible gas in gas samples drawn from nitrogen-blanketed transformers; dissolved gas analysis; oil quality tests; free water in the sample; dissolved water in oil; dissolved metals-in-oil analysis; furfural concentration analysis; SF[sub 6] analysis; battery testing; the substation grounding grid; and protective relays. 4 figs.
Lautenschlager, M. (High Voltage Maintenance Corp., Indianapolis, IN (United States))
Analysis of Country-wide Internet Outages Caused by Censorship
In the first months of 2011, Internet communications were disrupted in several North African countries in response to civilian protests and threats of civil war. In this paper we analyze episodes of these disruptions in two countries: Egypt and Libya. Our analysis relies on multiple sources of large-scale data already available to academic researchers: BGP interdomain routing control plane data; unsolicited data plane traffic to unassigned address space; active macroscopic traceroute measurements; RIR delegation files; and MaxMind�s geolocation database. We used the latter two data sets to determine which IP address ranges were allocated to entities within each country, and then mapped these IP addresses of interest to BGP-announced address ranges (prefixes) and origin ASes using publicly available BGP data repositories in the U.S. and Europe. We then analyzed observable activity related to these sets of prefixes and ASes throughout the censorship episodes. Using both control plane and data plane data sets in combination allowed us to narrow down which forms of Internet access disruption were implemented in a given region over time. Among other insights, we detected what we believe were Libya�s attempts to test firewallbased blocking before they executed more aggressive BGP-based disconnection. Our methodology could be used, and automated, to detect outages or similar macroscopically disruptive events in other geographic or topological regions.
Alberto Dainotti; Kimberly C. Claffy; Michele Russo; Claudio Squarcella; Marco Chiesa; Antonio Pescap�; Emile Aben
In accordance with DOE Order No. 202-05-03 Pepco is In accordance with DOE Order No. 202-05-03 Pepco is required to provide notification of any and all 230kV planned outages at Potomac River Generating Station. On Tuesday February 20, 2007 Potomac Electric Power Company (Pepco) will be taking a planned outage on the 23106 high voltage circuit between the Palmer's Corner Substation and the Potomac River Generating Station. Notification of Planned 230kV Outage at Potomac River Generating Station More Documents & Publications Re: Potomac River Generating Station Department of Energy Case No. EO-05-01: Advanced Notice of Power Outages. Special Environmental Analysis For Actions Taken under U.S. Department of Energy Emergency Orders Regarding Operation of the Potomac River Generating Station in Alexandria, Virginia
No (Brain)power Outage at a Competition Like No Other
Office of Science (SC) Website
No (Brain)power Outage at a Competition Like No Other News In the News In Focus 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 Presentations & Testimony Recovery Act Contact...
The next planned outage on xxxxx high voltage circuit between xxxxx and xxxxx is tentatively scheduled for Saturday May 19, 2007 and will begin at 4:00 AM with a scheduled return...
Efficient algorithms for outage minimization in parallel fading channels with limited feedback
In this paper, we address the optimal power allocation problem for minimizing the notion of information theoretic outage for an M parallel block-Rayleigh-fading channels using a finite rate power codebook (limited feedback). In contrast to the ...
YuanYuan He; Subhrakanti Dey
ORNL Network Outage, Saturday, June 12, 6:00-8:00 a.m.
June 12, 2010, 6:00 a.m. to 8:00 a.m. EDT All externally accessible ORNL servers, including the ORNL DAAC Web Site, http:daac.ornl.gov will experience brief network outages...
A Novel Dynamic Voltage Restorer with Outage Handling Capability Using Fuzzy Logic Controler
This paper presents a novel dynamic voltage restorer (DVR) capable of handling deep sags including outage on a low voltage distribution system. The DVR recovers sags up to 10% of nominal voltage; otherwise, it will operate as an uninterruptible power ...
M. Ashari; T. Hiyama; M. Pujiantara; H. Suryoatmojo; M. Hery Purnomo
U.S. - Canada Power System Outage Task Force: Final Report on the
- Canada Power System Outage Task Force: Final Report on the - Canada Power System Outage Task Force: Final Report on the Implementation of Task Force Recommendations U.S. - Canada Power System Outage Task Force: Final Report on the Implementation of Task Force Recommendations On August 14, 2003, the largest power blackout in North American history affected an area with an estimated 50 million people and 61,800 megawatts (MW) of electric load in the states of Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, New York, Vermont, Massachusetts, Connecticut and New Jersey, and the Canadian province of Ontario. U.S. - Canada Power System Outage Task Force: Final Report on the Implementation of Task Force Recommendations More Documents & Publications Blackout 2003: Blackout Final Implementation Report Blackout 2003: The August 14, 2003 Blackout One Year Later: Actions Taken
A Review of Power Outages and Restoration Following the June 2012 Derecho |
A Review of Power Outages and Restoration Following the June 2012 A Review of Power Outages and Restoration Following the June 2012 Derecho A Review of Power Outages and Restoration Following the June 2012 Derecho August 7, 2012 - 11:16am Addthis The Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability has released a report that reviews power outages and restoration efforts following the June 29, 2012 Derecho and compares them to outages and restoration efforts following other spring and summer storms in the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic regions. View the Report. Addthis Related Articles Salazar, Chu Announce Major Offshore Wind Initiatives A Review of Power Outages and Restoration Following the June 2012 Derecho Response to Hurricane Irene - Restoring Power on the East Coast President Barack Obama listens to Acting Energy Secretary Daniel B. Poneman during a meeting with electric utility CEOs and trade association representatives at the Department of Energy in Washington, D.C., May 8, 2013. | Official White House Photo by Pete Souza.
The use of probability techniques in value-based planning
Present techniques used in value-based planning do not properly represent neither the durations of capacity outage nor the effects of outage on post-interruption demand. Generation outage models do not relate the expected quantum of shortages to particular durations of outage. A model is proposed to compute this expectation by using the generator outage statistics in its entirety. The application of this model to the IEEE test system gave different results, depending on which outage cost data were used. Consequently, there is a need for a uniform procedure to report outage costs. A bottom-up procedure based on end use is proposed as a possibility.
Rau, N.S. (National Renewable Energy Lab., Golden, CO (United States))
Scenario Generation for Price Forecasting in Restructured Wholesale Power Markets
In current restructured wholesale power markets, the short length of time series for prices makes it difficult to use empirical price data to test existing price forecasting tools and to develop new price forecasting tools. This study therefore proposes a two-stage approach for generating simulated price scenarios based on the available price data. The first stage consists of an Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) model for determining scenarios of cleared demands and scheduled generator outages (D&O), and a moment-matching method for reducing the number of D&O scenarios to a practical scale. In the second stage, polynomials are fitted between D&O and wholesale power prices in order to obtain price scenarios for a specified time frame. Time series data from the Midwest ISO (MISO) are used as a test system to validate the proposed approach. The simulation results indicate that the proposed approach is able to generate price scenarios for distinct seasons with empirically realistic characteristics.
Qun Zhou; Leigh Tesfatsion; Chen-Ching Liu
Air Pollution Project: Scenario
Project Summary HELP Index Summary Scenario Internet Links Student Pages SubjectContent Area: ScienceChemistry, Environment - Air Pollution Target Audience: High school chemistry...
high penetrations of energy efficiency measures and renewable energy generation (both rooftop solar efficiency, renewable generation, solar photo voltaic, greenhouse gases, power generation, scenario analysis
Battery Standard Scenario
Scenario: Fast Tracking a Battery Standard. ... with developing a new standard specifying quality controls for the development of batteries used in ...
Base case and perturbation scenarios
This report describes fourteen energy factors that could affect electricity markets in the future (demand, process, source mix, etc.). These fourteen factors are believed to have the most influence on the State? s energy environment. A base case, or most probable, characterization is given for each of these fourteen factors over a twenty year time horizon. The base case characterization is derived from quantitative and qualitative information provided by State of California government agencies, where possible. Federal government databases are nsed where needed to supplement the California data. It is envisioned that a initial selection of issue areas will be based upon an evaluation of them under base case conditions. For most of the fourteen factors, the report identities possible perturbations from base case values or assumptions that may be used to construct additional scenarios. Only those perturbations that are plausible and would have a significant effect on energy markets are included in the table. The fourteen factors and potential perturbations of the factors are listed in Table 1.1. These perturbations can be combined to generate internally consist.ent. combinations of perturbations relative to the base case. For example, a low natural gas price perturbation should be combined with a high natural gas demand perturbation. The factor perturbations are based upon alternative quantitative forecasts provided by other institutions (the Department of Energy - Energy Information Administration in some cases), changes in assumptions that drive the quantitative forecasts, or changes in assumptions about the structure of the California energy markets. The perturbations are intended to be used for a qualitative reexamination of issue areas after an initial evaluation under the base case. The perturbation information would be used as a ?tiebreaker;? to make decisions regarding those issue areas that were marginally accepted or rejected under the base case. Hf a quantitative scoring system for issue areas were applied under the base case, a tractable quantitative decision model incorporating scenarios and their likelihoods could be developed and appli& in the decision process. LLNL has developed four perturbation scenarios that address the following issues: l} low economic growth, 2) high natural gas prices, 3) dysfunctional markets, and 4) a preference for green power. We have proposed a plausible scenario that addresses each issue for discussion and consideration by the CEC. In addition, we have provided an example application of the four perturbation scenarios in a qualitative framework for evaluation of issue areas developed for the PIEPC program. A description of each of the perturbation scenarios and a discussion of how they could effect decisions about today? s R&D funding is included. The scenarios attempt to cover a broad spectrum of plausible outcomes in a deregulated market environment. Nowever, Vhey are not a comprehensive and rigorously defined list of the most probable scenarios, but rather a qualitative inference based upon knowledge and expertise in the energy field.
Edmunds, T
ORNL Network Outage, Friday, April 15, 9:30 p.m. to Date
Outage Outage All externally accessible ORNL servers, including the ORNL DAAC Web Site, http://daac.ornl.gov are experiencing network outages or slow connectivity at this time. The ORNL Information Technology's Cyber Security Program is working hard to restore full external functionality. We apologize for this inconvenience and appreciate your patience during our down time. At this time you can explore our Web site and access data products including MODIS Land Products Subsets, albeit slowly. The following tools: Mercury (Simple Search and Advanced Product Search) WebGIS Spatial Data Access Tool (SDAT) Thematic Real-time Environmental Distributed Data Services (THREDDS) Data Server (TDS) as well as the following Web Sites: Mast-DC FLUXNET are not available. You may experience problems signing-in or
Market Assessment of Refinery Outages Planned for March 2011 through June 2011
Assessment of Refinery Assessment of Refinery Outages Planned for March 2011 through June 2011 APRIL 2011 www.eia.gov U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 U.S. Energy Information Administration / Market Assessment of Planned Refinery Outages / March 2011 - June 2011 ii This report was prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. By law, EIA's data, analyses, and forecasts are independent of approval by any other officer or employee of the United States Government. The views in this report therefore should not be construed as representing those of the Department of Energy or other Federal agencies. U.S. Energy Information Administration / Market Assessment of Planned Refinery Outages /
Pepco Update on Current Construction Work and Mirant Generation Needs for Pepco's Planned June Line Outage
May 25, 2007 May 25, 2007 Kevin Kolevar Director of the Office of Electricity Deliverability and Energy Reliability Department of Energy 1000 Independence Ave., SW Washington, DC 20585 Dear Mr. Kolevar, DOE has requested that Pepco provide an update on the current work to install two new 230 kilovolt circuits into Potomac River substation and to evaluate the need for generation from the Potomac River plant to support the anticipated line outage during June, 2007. An outage on one of the 230 kV circuits is currently underway and is currently scheduled to be completed by June 2, 2007. Mirant has supported this outage with generation required to match the Potomac River area load from the substation. This has required the operation of all 5 generating units located at
Automatic Scheduling of Outages of Nuclear Power Plants with Time Windows
We report on a successful project for transference of advanced AI technology into the domain of planning of outages of nuclear power plants as part of DOD's dual-use program. ROMAN (Rome Lab Outage Manager) is the prototype system that was developed as a result of this project. ROMAN's main innovation compared to the current state of the art of outage management tools is its capability to automatically enforce safety constraints during the planning and scheduling phase. Another innovative aspect of ROMAN is the generation of more robust schedules that are feasible over time windows. In other words, ROMAN generates a family of schedules by assigning time intervals as start times to activities rather than single point start times, without afecting the overall duration of the project. ROMAN uses a constraint satisfaction paradigm combining a global search tactic with constraint propagation. The derivation of very specialized representations for the constraints to perform efficient propaga...
Carla P. Gomes
Power Outages Update: Post-Tropical Cyclone Sandy | Department of Energy
Outages Update: Post-Tropical Cyclone Sandy Outages Update: Post-Tropical Cyclone Sandy Power Outages Update: Post-Tropical Cyclone Sandy October 29, 2012 - 9:37pm Addthis Sandy made landfall as a post-tropical cyclone on the southern coast of New Jersey near Atlantic City at 8 p.m. with top sustained winds of 80 mph. | Photo courtesy of NOAA Sandy made landfall as a post-tropical cyclone on the southern coast of New Jersey near Atlantic City at 8 p.m. with top sustained winds of 80 mph. | Photo courtesy of NOAA Dan Leistikow Dan Leistikow Former Director, Office of Public Affairs As of 8:00 pm EDT on October 29, there were more than 3.6 million customers without power in the affected states. The Energy Department is continuing to monitor the progress of the storm throughout the night and will publish
The detection, prevention and mitigation of cascading outages in the power system
This dissertation studies the causes and mechanism of power system cascading outages and develops new methods and new tools to help detect, prevent and mitigate the outages. Three effective solutions: a steady state control scheme, a transient stability control scheme, and an interactive system-wide and local scheme have been proposed using those new methods and tools. A steady state control scheme can help detect and prevent the possible cascading outage at its initial slow steady state progress stage. It uses new methods and new tools to solve the line overload, congestion or bus high/low voltage problems. New methods, such as vulnerability index (VI), margin index (MI), network contribution factor (NCF), topology processing and selected minimum load shedding (SMLS), and new tools, such as transmission network control based on a network contribution factor (NCF) method, generator control based on a generator distribution factor (GDF) method, and load control based on a load distribution factor (LDF) method have been proposed and developed. A transient stability control scheme can help prevent and mitigate the possible cascading outage at its transient progress stage if there is enough time to take action. It uses one Lyapunov direct method, potential energy boundary surface (PEBS) method, and sensitivity analysis of transient energy margin for fast stabilizing control. The results are verified by the accurate time-domain transient stability analysis method. The interactive scheme takes advantage of accurate system-wide and local information and analysis results, uses some techniques from both steady state control and transient stability control, works at both the system-wide level and local substation level, monitors the system all the time, and takes actions when needed to help detect, prevent and mitigate the possible cascading outage. Comprehensive simulation studies have been implemented using the IEEE 14- bus, 24-bus, 39-bus and 118-bus systems and promising results show the ability of the proposed solutions to help detect, prevent and mitigate cascading outages.
Song, Hongbiao
Nuclear Safety Risk Management in Refueling Outage of Qinshan Nuclear Power Plant
The NPP is used to planning maintenance, in-service inspection, surveillance test, fuel handling and design modification in the refueling outage; the operator response capability will be reduced plus some of the plant systems out of service or loss of power at this time. Based on 8 times refueling outage experiences of the Qinshan NPP, this article provide some good practice and lesson learned for the nuclear safety risk management focus at four safety function areas of Residual Heat Removal Capability, Inventory Control, Power availability and Reactivity control. (authors)
Meijing Wu; Guozhang Shen [Qinshan Nuclear power company (China)
Cross-layer interaction between spatial and multi-user diversity in selective feedback systems: outage capacity analysis
In this paper, we explore spatial vs. multi-user diversity tradeoffs in terms of outage capacity for a non-homogeneous cellular system with selective feedback. More precisely, we analytically derive an upper bound of the outage capacity of both a SISO ... Keywords: cross-layer designs, multi-antenna schemes, multi-user diversity, selective scheduling, spatial diversity, wireless systems
Jos� L�pez Vicario; Carles Ant�n-Haro
collaboration among economists, scientists, and engineers to slowly but surely transform the power grid96 IEEE power & energy magazine march/april 2005 T THE MASSIVE POWER OUTAGE OF August 2003 underscored the vulnerabil- ity of our nation's power grid and the fact that this vital yet complex infrastruc
ORNL NASA DAAC Web Site Outage, Saturday May 15 from 3:00 a.m...
Outage, Saturday, May 15, 2010 3:00 a.m.-5:00 p.m. EDT The ORNL DAAC Web site will be unavailable between 3:00 a.m. and 5:00 p.m., Eastern Daylight Time (EDT), on Saturday, May 15,...
Mitigating Cascading Outages on Power Systems: Recent Research Approaches and Emerging Methods
The August 14, 2003 and August 10, 1996 wide area outages are two examples of the cascading failure of a large portion of the North American power grid. Methods of better understanding, predicting, and preventing cascading failures, as well as restoring the power system after such failure, were the topics of a recent NSF/EPRI workshop.
Unit-Contingent Power Purchase Agreement and Asymmetric Information About Plant Outage
This paper analyzes a unit-contingent power purchase agreement between an electricity distributor and a power plant. Under such a contract the distributor pays the plant a fixed price if the plant is operational and nothing if plant outage occurs. Pricing ... Keywords: electricity industry, risk allocation, spot market, unit-contingent contract
Owen Q. Wu; Volodymyr Babich
An Efficient Energy Curtailment Scheme For Outage Management in Smart Grid
An Efficient Energy Curtailment Scheme For Outage Management in Smart Grid Wayes Tushar§, Jian--In this paper an efficient energy curtailment scheme is studied, which enables the power users of a smart grid. Considering the advantages of a two-way communications infrastructure for any future smart grid, a non
Durrani, Salman
Scenario Scenario HELP Index Summary Scenario Internet Links Student Pages Oak Park and River Forest High School in Oak Park, IL, is a four-year (9-12) comprehensive high school with an enrollment of approximately 2800 students. The communities of Oak Park and River Forest are located just west of Chicago. Student backgrounds vary greatly socio-economically, ethnically (63% Caucasian, 28% African-American, 4% Hispanic, 4% Asian) and culturally. Average student standardized test scores are above the state and national averages. The chemistry class is a cross section of the lower 70% of the school community. Students in Ms. Bardeen's regular chemistry class, grades 10, 11 & 12 enter the computer lab, access the Internet on their computers, and begin to work with their teams on their current project. Students are busy talking with
Salt Creek Scenario
Scenario Scenario HELP Index Summary Scenario References Student Pages Two branches of Salt Creek run through the city of Rolling Meadows, Illinois, not far from our school. Five members of our team of eighth grade teachers from different subject areas (science, language arts, bilingual education and special education), decided to develop an interdisciplinary study of Salt Creek as a way of giving our students authentic experiences in environmental studies. The unit begins when students enter school in August, running through the third week of September, and resuming for three weeks in October. Extension activities based on using the data gathered at the creek continue throughout the school year, culminating in a presentation at a city council meeting in the spring.
Sight and Sound - Scenario
Scenario Scenario Summary Student Pages Internet Links Index Introduction Development/Rationale for the Year-End Project Teacher Preparation for the Year-End Project The Sight and Sound Project - an Anecdotal Account Introduction to and Selection of Year-End Projects Conducting the Literature Search Project Proposal Conducting the Experiments Wrapping up with the Reports and Presentations Introduction: Mr. Tom Henderson is part of a talented science staff at Glenbrook South High School. Glenbrook South High School (GBS) is set in an educationally supportive and affluent community. The physics staff work in teams teaching physics to over 80 percent of the student population and are constantly looking for ways to use technology to empower students with the ability to apply learned concepts of physics to their lives. With this goal in mind,
Propensities and conditional probabilities
The present paper deals with the objection that Paul Humphreys raised against the propensity interpretation of probability - ''Humphreys' paradox''. An update on existing solutions is offered, and it is concluded that none of them is completely satisfactory ... Keywords: Conditionalization, Humphreys' paradox, Propensity
Isabelle Drouet
Waste Package Misload Probability
The objective of this calculation is to calculate the probability of occurrence for fuel assembly (FA) misloads (i.e., Fa placed in the wrong location) and FA damage during FA movements. The scope of this calculation is provided by the information obtained from the Framatome ANP 2001a report. The first step in this calculation is to categorize each fuel-handling events that occurred at nuclear power plants. The different categories are based on FAs being damaged or misloaded. The next step is to determine the total number of FAs involved in the event. Using the information, a probability of occurrence will be calculated for FA misload and FA damage events. This calculation is an expansion of preliminary work performed by Framatome ANP 2001a.
J.K. Knudsen
Improving Ranking Using Quantum Probability
The paper shows that ranking information units by quantum probability differs from ranking them by classical probability provided the same data used for parameter estimation. As probability of detection (also known as recall or power) and probability of false alarm (also known as fallout or size) measure the quality of ranking, we point out and show that ranking by quantum probability yields higher probability of detection than ranking by classical probability provided a given probability of false alarm and the same parameter estimation data. As quantum probability provided more effective detectors than classical probability within other domains that data management, we conjecture that, the system that can implement subspace-based detectors shall be more effective than a system which implements a set-based detectors, the effectiveness being calculated as expected recall estimated over the probability of detection and expected fallout estimated over the probability of false alarm.
Melucci, Massimo
Fast Detection and Mitigation of Cascading Outages in the Power System
This dissertation studies the causes and mechanism of power system cascading outages and proposes the improved interactive scheme between system-wide and local levels of monitoring and control to quickly detect, classify and mitigate the cascading outages in power system. A novel method for evaluating the vulnerability of individual components as well as the whole power system, which is named as weighted vulnerability analysis, is developed. Betweenness centrality is used to measure the importance of each bus and transmission line in the modeled power system network, which is in turn used to determine the weights for the weighted vulnerability index. It features fast reaction time and achieves higher accuracy when dealing with the cascading outage detection, classification and mitigation over the traditional methods. The overload problem due to power flow redistribution after one line tripped is a critical factor contributing to the cascading outages. A parallel corridor searching method is proposed to quickly identify the most vulnerable components after tripping a transmission line. The power system topology model can be simplified into state graph after searching the domains for each generator, the commons for each bus, and links between the commons. The parallel corridor will be determined by searching the links and commons in system topology graph for the given state of power system operation. During stressed operating state, either stable or unstable power swing may have impacts on distance relay judgment and lead to relay misoperation, which will result in the power system lines being tripped and as a consequence power system operating state becoming even more stressful. At the local level, an enhanced fault detection tool during power system swing is developed to reduce the chance of relay misoperation. Comprehensive simulation studies have been implemented by using the IEEE 39-bus and 118-bus test systems. The results are promising because: The results from weighted vulnerability analysis could provide better system situational awareness and accurate information about the disturbance; The results form parallel corridor search method could identify the most vulnerable lines after power re-distribution, which will give operator time to take remedial actions; The results from new travelling wave and wavelet transform based fault detection could reduce the impact of relay misoperation.
Pang, Chengzong
Uncertainty in Integrated Assessment Scenarios
The determination of climate policy is a decision under uncertainty. The uncertainty in future climate change impacts is large, as is the uncertainty in the costs of potential policies. Rational and economically efficient policy choices will therefore seek to balance the expected marginal costs with the expected marginal benefits. This approach requires that the risks of future climate change be assessed. The decision process need not be formal or quantitative for descriptions of the risks to be useful. Whatever the decision procedure, a useful starting point is to have as accurate a description of climate risks as possible. Given the goal of describing uncertainty in future climate change, we need to characterize the uncertainty in the main causes of uncertainty in climate impacts. One of the major drivers of uncertainty in future climate change is the uncertainty in future emissions, both of greenhouse gases and other radiatively important species such as sulfur dioxide. In turn, the drivers of uncertainty in emissions are uncertainties in the determinants of the rate of economic growth and in the technologies of production and how those technologies will change over time. This project uses historical experience and observations from a large number of countries to construct statistical descriptions of variability and correlation in labor productivity growth and in AEEI. The observed variability then provides a basis for constructing probability distributions for these drivers. The variance of uncertainty in growth rates can be further modified by expert judgment if it is believed that future variability will differ from the past. But often, expert judgment is more readily applied to projected median or expected paths through time. Analysis of past variance and covariance provides initial assumptions about future uncertainty for quantities that are less intuitive and difficult for experts to estimate, and these variances can be normalized and then applied to mean trends from a model for uncertainty projections. The probability distributions of these critical model drivers, and the resulting uncertainty in projections from a range of models, can provide the basis of future emission scenario set designs.
Mort Webster
Hydrogen and FCV Implementation Scenarios, 2010 - 2025
Scenario 1 Vehicle Transition and Deployment Scenario 2 Vehicle Transition and Deployment Scenario 3 Vehicle Transition and Deployment SUMMARY In response to the National Research...
Key Issues for the control of refueling outage duration and costs in PWR Nuclear Power Plants
For several years, EDF, within the framework of the CIDEM1 project and in collaboration with some German Utilities, has undertaken a detailed review of the operating experience both of its own NPP and of foreign units, in order to improve the performances of future units under design, particularly the French-German European Pressurized Reactor (EPR) project. This review made it possible to identify the key issues allowing to decrease the duration of refueling and maintenance outages. These key issues can be classified in 3 categories Design, Maintenance and Logistic Support, Outage Management. Most of the key issues in the design field and some in the logistic support field have been studied and could be integrated into the design of any future PWR unit, as for the EPR project. Some of them could also be adapted to current plants, provided they are feasible and profitable. The organization must be tailored to each country, utility or period: it widely depends on the power production environment, particularly in a deregulation context. (author)
Degrave, Claude [Electricite de France, EDF-SEPTEN, 12-14 avenue Dutrievoz 69628 Villeurbanne Cedex (France)
Analytical Tools to Predict Distribution Outage Restoration Load. Final Project Report.
The main activity of this project has been twofold: (1) development of a computer model to predict CLPU(Cold Load Pickup) and (2) development of a field measurement and analysis method to obtain the input parameters of the CLPU model. The field measurement and analysis method is called the Step-Voltage-Test (STEPV). The Kootenai Electric Cooperative Appleway 51 feeder in Coeur d`Alene was selected for analysis in this project and STEPV tests were performed in winters of 92 and 93. The STEPV data was analyzed (method and results presented within this report) to obtain the Appleway 51 feeder parameters for prediction by the CLPU model. One only CLPU record was obtained in winter 1994. Unfortunately, the actual CLPU was not dramatic (short outage and moderate temperature) and did not display cyclic restoration current. A predicted Appleway 51 feeder CLPU was generated using the parameters obtained via the STEPV measurement/analysis/algorithm method at the same ambient temperature and outage duration as the measured actual CLPU. The predicted CLPU corresponds reasonably well with the single actual CLPU data obtained in winter 1994 on the Appleway 51 feeder.
Law, John
Biofuel and Bioenergy implementation scenarios
Biofuel and Bioenergy implementation scenarios Final report of VIEWLS WP5, modelling studies #12;Biofuel and Bioenergy implementation scenarios Final report of VIEWLS WP5, modelling studies By André of this project are to provide structured and clear data on the availability and performance of biofuels
Notification of Planned 230kV Outage at Potomac River Generating Station
Sent: Wednesday, May 16, 2007 4:49 PM To: #firstname.lastname@example.com Subject: Notification of Planned 230kV Outage at Potomac River Generating Station To Whom It May Concern: This morning Pepco and PJM observed that the generation at the Potomac River Generating Station was having difficulty matching the station generation requirement to the Potomac River area load. Mirant has also informed Pepco and PJM that several generating units were experiencing equipment problems which required them to reduce unit and total plant output. Based on these observations and information received from Mirant, Pepco has elected to cease the current work activities underway on xxxxx high voltage circuit and we will be placing this transmission line back in service this afternoon.
Updated 4/25/2011 Updated 4/25/2011 All externally accessible ORNL servers, including the ORNL DAAC Web Site, http://daac.ornl.gov are experiencing network outages or slow connectivity at this time. We apologize for this inconvenience and appreciate your patience during our down time. At this time you can explore our Web site and access data products including MODIS Land Products Subsets, albeit slowly. However, the following Web sites and tools have been taken off the Internet and are not available: Mercury (DAAC Simple Search and Advanced Product Search) WebGIS Spatial Data Access Tool (SDAT) Thematic Real-time Environmental Distributed Data Services (THREDDS) Data Server (TDS) MAST-DC FLUXNET Beija-flor (at ORNL) You may experience problems signing-in or registering with our Web site.
Market Assessment of Refinery Outages Planned for October 2010 through January 2011
10)/2 10)/2 Market Assessment of Refinery Outages Planned for October 2010 through January 2011 November 2010 Energy Information Administration Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 This report was prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. By law, EIA's data, analyses, and forecasts are independent of approval by any other officer or employee of the United States Government. The views in this report therefore should not be construed as representing those of the Department of Energy or other Federal agencies. E nergy Information Adminis tration Market As s es s ment of P lanned R
August 2012 August 2012 A Review of Power Outages and Restoration Following the June 2012 Derecho Infrastructure Security and Energy Restoration Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability U.S. Department of Energy For Further Information This report was prepared by the Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability under the direction of Patricia Hoffman, Assistant Secretary, and William Bryan, Deputy Assistant Secretary. Specific questions about this report may be directed to Alice Lippert, Senior Technical Advisor (email@example.com). (Cover image from the National Weather Service) OE/ISER 8/6/2012 1 Background On June 29, 2012, a major storm system known as a derecho ("deh-REY-cho") formed and
Comments from the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality on PEPCO's Intention to Commence Planned Transmission Outages
COMMONWEALTH of VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH of VIRGINIA DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY Street address: 629 East Main Street, Richmond, Virginia 23219 Mailing address: P.O. Box 10009, Richmond, Virginia 23240 Fax (804) 698-4500 TDD (804) 698-4021 www.deq.virginia.gov W. Tayloe Murphy, Jr. Secretary of Natural Resources Robert G. Burnley Director (804) 698-4000 1-800-592-5482 January 5, 2006 The Honorable Samuel W. Bodman Secretary of Energy United States Department of Energy 1000 Independence Avenue, S.W. Washington, D.C. 20585 Re: District of Columbia Public Service Commission Docket No. EO-05-01 Dear Secretary Bodman: The Virginia Department of Environmental Quality (DEQ) strongly opposes the Potomac Electric Power Company's (PEPCO) intention to commence planned maintenance outages of the
Market Assessment of Refinery Outages Planned for October 2009 through January 2010
09)/2 09)/2 Market Assessment of Refinery Outages Planned for October 2009 through January 2010 November 2009 Energy Information Administration Office of Oil and Gas U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 This report was prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the independent statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. By law, EIA's data, analyses, and forecasts are independent of approval by any other officer or employee of the United States Government. The views herein should not be construed as representing those of the Department or the Administration. Preface and Contacts The Energy Information Administration (EIA) is the independent statistical and analytical
Reducing Duration of Refueling Outage by Optimizing Core Design and Shuffling Sequence
Reducing the duration of refueling outage is possible by optimizing the core design and the shuffling sequence. For both options software tools have been developed that have been applied to the three most recent cycles of the Borssele plant in the Netherlands. Applicability of the shuffling sequence optimization to boiling water reactors has been demonstrated by a comparison to a recent shuffle plan used in the Hatch plant located in the United States. Their uses have shown that both core design and shuffling sequence optimization can be exploited to reduce the time needed for reloading a core with an in-core shuffling scheme. Ex-core shuffling schemes for pressurized water reactors can still have substantial benefit from a core design using a minimized number of insert shuffles.
Wakker, P.H.; Verhagen, F.C.M.; Bloois, J.T. van; Sutton, W.R. III
Understanding the Benefits of Dispersed Grid-Connected Photovoltaics: From Avoiding the Next Major Outage to Taming Wholesale Power Markets
Thanks to new solar resource assessment techniques using cloud cover data available from geostationary satellites, it is apparent that grid-connected PV installations can serve to enhance electric grid reliability, preventing or hastening recovery from major power outages and serving to mitigate extreme price spikes in wholesale energy markets. (author)
Letendre, Steven E.; Perez, Richard
Rooftop Photovoltaics Market Penetration Scenarios
DOE Green Energy (OSTI)
The goal of this study was to model the market penetration of rooftop photovoltaics (PV) in the United States under a variety of scenarios, on a state-by-state basis, from 2007 to 2015.
Paidipati, J.; Frantzis, L.; Sawyer, H.; Kurrasch, A.
Analysis and Mitigation of Tropospheric Effects on Ka Band Satellite Signals and Estimation of Ergodic Capacity and Outage Probability for Terrestrial Links
Propulsion Labs (JPL) is considering building a large antenna array using 6 m and 12 m antennas for its Deep Space
Enserink, Scott Warren
Baseline scenario(s) for muon collider proton driver
This paper gives an overview of the various muon collider scenarios and the requirements they put on the Proton Driver. The required proton power is about 4-6MW in all the scenarios, but the bunch repetition rate varies between 12 and 65Hz. Since none of the muon collider scenarios have been simulated end-to-end, it would be advisable to plan for an upgrade path to around 10MW. Although the proton driver energy is flexible, cost arguments seems to favor a relatively low energy. In particular, at Fermilab 8GeV seems most attractive, partly due to the possibility of reusing the three existing fixed energy storage rings for bunch manipulations.
Jansson, Andreas; /Fermilab
FCCU transition-probability model
The adequacy of the use of transition-probability matrices for modelling fluidised catalyst cracker unit emissions was investigated. A number of different-sized matrices that modelled the processes of attrition and agglomeration were used, and it was ... Keywords: Agglomeration, Attrition, Probability matrix
Robbie J. Dixon; Maki Matsuka; Roger D. Braddock; Josh M. Whitcombe; Igor E. Agranovski
Complexity of event structure in IE scenarios
This paper presents new Information Extraction scenarios which are linguistically and structurally more challenging than the traditional MUC scenarios. Traditional views on event structure and template design are not adequate for the more complex scenarios.The ...
Silja Huttunen; Roman Yangarber; Ralph Grishman
... Impact Analysis Threat Actor Analysis For each scenario Aim: Select scenarios that could have a catastrophic impact on the organisation Page 23. ...
RESEARCH ARTICLE Optimal Scenario Tree Reduction for ...
scenarios) for streamflows of the jth hydroelectric plant. Our choice is based on the fact that when scenarios are discarded, variance tends to decrease.
Abrupt Climate Change Scenario Technologies
Abrupt Climate Change Scenario Technologies Abrupt Climate Change Scenario Technologies Speaker(s): Tina Kaarsberg Date: April 27, 2006 - 12:00pm Location: Bldg. 90 Seminar Host/Point of Contact: Jayant Sathaye This talk examines the potential for several types of technologies that hitherto have not been a focus of U.S. climate technology planning. It was inspired by the latest climate science data and modeling which suggest that an abrupt warming (+10oF in 10 years), is an increasingly plausible scenario. The technologies described in the session rapidly reduce the risk of climate change and increase our ability to respond quickly. All of the technologies also have other public benefits. (Summary follows): For more information about this seminar, please contact: JoAnne Lambert 510.486.4835, or send e-mail to firstname.lastname@example.com
Probable Inference and Quantum Mechanics
In its current very successful interpretation the quantum theory is fundamentally statistical in nature. Although commonly viewed as a probability amplitude whose (complex) square is a probability, the wavefunction or state vector continues to defy consensus as to its exact meaning, primarily because it is not a physical observable. Rather than approach this problem directly, it is suggested that it is first necessary to clarify the precise role of probability theory in quantum mechanics, either as applied to, or as an intrinsic part of the quantum theory. When all is said and done the unsurprising conclusion is that quantum mechanics does not constitute a logic and probability unto itself, but adheres to the long-established rules of classical probability theory while providing a means within itself for calculating the relevant probabilities. In addition, the wavefunction is seen to be a description of the quantum state assigned by an observer based on definite information, such that the same state must be assigned by any other observer based on the same information, in much the same way that probabilities are assigned.
Grandy, W. T. Jr. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Wyoming, Laramie, WY 82070 (United States)
Probability Ranking in Vector Spaces
The Probability Ranking Principle states that the document set with the highest values of probability of relevance optimizes information retrieval effectiveness given the probabilities are estimated as accurately as possible. The key point of the principle is the separation of the document set into two subsets with a given level of fallout and with the highest recall. The paper introduces the separation between two vector subspaces and shows that the separation yields a more effective performance than the optimal separation into subsets with the same available evidence, the performance being measured with recall and fallout. The result is proved mathematically and exemplified experimentally.
Plant Outage Time Savings Provided by Subcritical Physics Testing at Vogtle Unit 2
The most recent core reload design verification physics testing done at Southern Nuclear Company's (SNC) Vogtle Unit 2, performed prior to initial power operations in operating cycle 12, was successfully completed while the reactor was at least 1% {delta}K/K subcritical. The testing program used was the first application of the Subcritical Physics Testing (SPT) program developed by the Westinghouse Electric Company LLC. The SPT program centers on the application of the Westinghouse Subcritical Rod Worth Measurement (SRWM) methodology that was developed in cooperation with the Vogtle Reactor Engineering staff. The SRWM methodology received U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) approval in August of 2005. The first application of the SPT program occurred at Vogtle Unit 2 in October of 2005. The results of the core design verification measurements obtained during the SPT program demonstrated excellent agreement with prediction, demonstrating that the predicted core characteristics were in excellent agreement with the actual operating characteristics of the core. This paper presents an overview of the SPT Program used at Vogtle Unit 2 during operating cycle 12, and a discussion of the critical path outage time savings the SPT program is capable of providing. (authors)
Cupp, Philip [Southern Nuclear Company (United States); Heibel, M.D. [Westinghouse Electric Company, LLC (United States)
Experience Based Interview Process for Power Plant Management: With a Pilot Application to Aging of Outage Support Equipment
Plant managers are responsible for ensuring that their facilities meet strategic asset management goals in an increasingly competitive power generation marketplace. This report describes an experience based interview (EBI) method for capturing the knowledge of plant staff to more efficiently identify technical or operational issues and make management decisions that protect assets. Included is a demonstration of the method in a pilot application to aging of support equipment that could impact outages in ...
Effective Personnel Exposure Control in Shortened Refueling Outages: Final Report: Review of Remote Monitoring Systems in Radiation Protection Applications
Remote monitoring technology (RMT) significantly enhances worker protection and reduces worker radiation exposure, particularly during shortened refueling outages. This report provides a brief description of the hardware and features of remote monitoring systems, then focuses on nuclear plant experiences in applying such systems for enhanced radiation protection. It also discusses EPRI's RMT research program and formation of the RMT Working Group to support research in this area. Such information will gr...
Laboratory, firstname.lastname@example.com 7 May 2012 Solar reflective "cool" roofs save energy, money, and CO 2 when applied to air-conditioned buildings; improve comfort when applied to...
Joint probabilities and quantum cognition
In this paper we discuss the existence of joint probability distributions for quantum-like response computations in the brain. We do so by focusing on a contextual neural-oscillator model shown to reproduce the main features of behavioral stimulus-response theory. We then exhibit a simple example of contextual random variables not having a joint probability distribution, and describe how such variables can be obtained from neural oscillators, but not from a quantum observable algebra.
J. Acacio de Barros
In this paper we discuss the existence of joint probability distributions for quantumlike response computations in the brain. We do so by focusing on a contextual neural-oscillator model shown to reproduce the main features of behavioral stimulus-response theory. We then exhibit a simple example of contextual random variables not having a joint probability distribution, and describe how such variables can be obtained from neural oscillators, but not from a quantum observable algebra.
Acacio de Barros, J. [Liberal Studies, 1600 Holloway Ave., San Francisco State University, San Francisco, CA 94132 (United States)
Organisational scenarios and legacy systems
A legacy system is made up of technical components and social factors (such as software, people, skills, business processes) which no longer meet the needs of the business environment. The study of legacy systems has tended to be biased towards a software ... Keywords: Business process, Legacy system, Scenario, Software
Carole Brooke; Magnus Ramage
ULCOS scenarios and economic modeling
Modeling activities and scenario building are at the heart of the economic analysis delivered by the ULCOS program. Two main objectives were followed in the framework of SP9. First the modeling team had to provide a set of coherent energy economic scenarios using POLES model. Second, the economic conditions for the emergence of the ULCOS technologies were analyzed. ULCOS contributes to the elaboration of contrasted scenarios that the steel industry could face in the long term. To aim at these objectives specific tools have been used: POLES model for the global energy system modeling and ISIM model for the steel sector based prospective ([1] Hidalgo, 2003). The most promising steel production technologies identified in ULCOS Phase 1 have been introduced into ISIM as generic technologies. ISIM was then integrated as a module into POLES modeling system. The main model outputs are the energy prices and mixes and the steel sector balances with a focus on the technology mix. Actually the climate policy scenarios developped in project allow making recommendations to the steel industry in terms of sustainable development but also in terms of business strategy.
Elie Bellevrat
Selection of minimum earthquake intensity in calculating pipe failure probabilities
In a piping reliability analysis, it is sometimes necessary to specify a minimum ground motion intensity, usually the peak acceleration, below which the ground motions are not considered as earthquakes and, hence, are neglected. The calculated probability of failure of a piping system is dependent on this selected minimum earthquake intensity chosen for the analysis. A study was conducted to determine the effects of the minimum earthquake intensity on the probability of pipe failure. The results indicated that the probability of failure of the piping system is not very sensitive to the variations of the selected minimum peak ground acceleration. However, it does have significant effects on various scenarios that make up the system failure.
Lo, T.Y.
Pheromones, probabilities, and multiple futures
Most agent-based modeling techniques generate only a single trajectory in each run, greatly undersampling the space of possible trajectories. Swarming agents can explore many alternative futures in parallel, particularly when they interact through digital ... Keywords: Markov decision process, Monte Carlo tree search, agent-based modeling, polyagent, probability distributions, swarming
H. Van Dyke Parunak
Entanglement cost in practical scenarios
We quantify the one-shot entanglement cost of an arbitrary bipartite state, that is the minimum number of singlets needed by two distant parties to create a single copy of the state up to a finite accuracy, using local operations and classical communication only. This analysis, in contrast to the traditional one, pertains to scenarios of practical relevance, in which resources are finite and transformations can only be achieved approximately. Moreover, it unveils a fundamental relation between two well-known entanglement measures, namely, the Schmidt number and the entanglement of formation. Using this relation, we are able to recover the usual expression of the entanglement cost as a special case.
Francesco Buscemi; Nilanjana Datta
IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios
Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)
IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios Get Javascript Other reports in this collection Special Report on Emissions Scenarios Foreword Preface Summary for policymakers Technical Summary Chapters Chapter 1: Background and Overview Chapter 2: An Overview of the Scenario Literature Chapter 3: Scenario Driving Forces Chapter 4: An Overview of Scenarios Chapter 5: Emission Scenarios Chapter 6: Summary Discussions and Recommendations Appendices index I: SRES Terms of Reference: New IPCC Emission Scenarios II: SRES Writing Team and SRES Reviewers III: Definition of SRES World Region IV: Six Modeling Approaches V: Database Description VI: Open Process VII Data tables VIII Acronyms and Abbreviations IX Chemical Symbols X Units XI Glossary of Terms XII List of Major IPCC Reports
Addressing an Uncertain Future Using Scenario Analysis
a scenario may be an oil price hike in a future year, whichon the impact of high oil prices on the global economy (seethe scenario of a high oil price (of US$35/barrel, which is
Siddiqui, Afzal S.; Marnay, Chris
Probability Densities in Strong Turbulence
According to modern developments in turbulence theory, the "dissipation" scales (u.v. cut-offs) $\\eta$ form a random field related to velocity increments $\\delta_{\\eta}u$. In this work we, using Mellin's transform combined with the Gaussain large -scale boundary condition, calculate probability densities (PDFs) of velocity increments $P(\\delta_{r}u,r)$ and the PDF of the dissipation scales $Q(\\eta, Re)$, where $Re$ is the large-scale Reynolds number. The resulting expressions strongly deviate from the Log-normal PDF $P_{L}(\\delta_{r}u,r)$ often quoted in the literature. It is shown that the probability density of the small-scale velocity fluctuations includes information about the large (integral) scale dynamics which is responsible for deviation of $P(\\delta_{r}u,r)$ from $P_{L}(\\delta_{r}u,r)$. A framework for evaluation of the PDFs of various turbulence characteristics involving spatial derivatives is developed. The exact relation, free of spurious Logarithms recently discussed in Frisch et al (J. Fluid Mech. {\\bf 542}, 97 (2005)), for the multifractal probability density of velocity increments, not based on the steepest descent evaluation of the integrals is obtained and the calculated function $D(h)$ is close to experimental data. A novel derivation (Polyakov, 2005), of a well-known result of the multi-fractal theory [Frisch, "Turbulence. {\\it Legacy of A.N.Kolmogorov}", Cambridge University Press, 1995)), based on the concepts described in this paper, is also presented.
Victor Yakhot
A review of scenario generation methods
Stochastic programming models provide a powerful paradigm for decision making under uncertainty. In these models the uncertainties are captured by scenario generation and so are crucial to the quality of solutions obtained. Presently there do not exist ... Keywords: decision making, scenario generation, scenarios, stochastic optimisation, stochastic programming, uncertainty
Sovan Mitra; Nico Di Domenica
Radiation Detection Computational Benchmark Scenarios
Modeling forms an important component of radiation detection development, allowing for testing of new detector designs, evaluation of existing equipment against a wide variety of potential threat sources, and assessing operation performance of radiation detection systems. This can, however, result in large and complex scenarios which are time consuming to model. A variety of approaches to radiation transport modeling exist with complementary strengths and weaknesses for different problems. This variety of approaches, and the development of promising new tools (such as ORNL�s ADVANTG) which combine benefits of multiple approaches, illustrates the need for a means of evaluating or comparing different techniques for radiation detection problems. This report presents a set of 9 benchmark problems for comparing different types of radiation transport calculations, identifying appropriate tools for classes of problems, and testing and guiding the development of new methods. The benchmarks were drawn primarily from existing or previous calculations with a preference for scenarios which include experimental data, or otherwise have results with a high level of confidence, are non-sensitive, and represent problem sets of interest to NA-22. From a technical perspective, the benchmarks were chosen to span a range of difficulty and to include gamma transport, neutron transport, or both and represent different important physical processes and a range of sensitivity to angular or energy fidelity. Following benchmark identification, existing information about geometry, measurements, and previous calculations were assembled. Monte Carlo results (MCNP decks) were reviewed or created and re-run in order to attain accurate computational times and to verify agreement with experimental data, when present. Benchmark information was then conveyed to ORNL in order to guide testing and development of hybrid calculations. The results of those ADVANTG calculations were then sent to PNNL for compilation. This is a report describing the details of the selected Benchmarks and results from various transport codes.
Shaver, Mark W.; Casella, Andrew M.; Wittman, Richard S.; McDonald, Ben S.
MSPI False Indication Probability Simulations
This paper examines false indication probabilities in the context of the Mitigating System Performance Index (MSPI), in order to investigate the pros and cons of different approaches to resolving two coupled issues: (1) sensitivity to the prior distribution used in calculating the Bayesian-corrected unreliability contribution to the MSPI, and (2) whether (in a particular plant configuration) to model the fuel oil transfer pump (FOTP) as a separate component, or integrally to its emergency diesel generator (EDG). False indication probabilities were calculated for the following situations: (1) all component reliability parameters at their baseline values, so that the true indication is green, meaning that an indication of white or above would be false positive; (2) one or more components degraded to the extent that the true indication would be (mid) white, and �false� would be green (negative) or yellow (negative) or red (negative). In key respects, this was the approach taken in NUREG-1753. The prior distributions examined were the constrained noninformative (CNI) prior used currently by the MSPI, a mixture of conjugate priors, the Jeffreys noninformative prior, a nonconjugate log(istic)-normal prior, and the minimally informative prior investigated in (Kelly et al., 2010). The mid-white performance state was set at ?CDF = ?10 ? 10-6/yr. For each simulated time history, a check is made of whether the calculated ?CDF is above or below 10-6/yr. If the parameters were at their baseline values, and ?CDF > 10-6/yr, this is counted as a false positive. Conversely, if one or all of the parameters are set to values corresponding to ?CDF > 10-6/yr but that time history�s ?CDF < 10-6/yr, this is counted as a false negative indication. The false indication (positive or negative) probability is then estimated as the number of false positive or negative counts divided by the number of time histories (100,000). Results are presented for a set of base case parameter values, and three sensitivity cases in which the number of FOTP demands was reduced, along with the Birnbaum importance of the FOTP.
Dana Kelly; Kurt Vedros; Robert Youngblood
This paper examines false indication probabilities in the context of the Mitigating System Performance Index (MSPI), in order to investigate the pros and cons of different approaches to resolving two coupled issues: (1) sensitivity to the prior distribution used in calculating the Bayesian-corrected unreliability contribution to the MSPI, and (2) whether (in a particular plant configuration) to model the fuel oil transfer pump (FOTP) as a separate component, or integrally to its emergency diesel generator (EDG). False indication probabilities were calculated for the following situations: (1) all component reliability parameters at their baseline values, so that the true indication is green, meaning that an indication of white or above would be false positive; (2) one or more components degraded to the extent that the true indication would be (mid) white, and �false� would be green (negative) or yellow (negative) or red (negative). In key respects, this was the approach taken in NUREG-1753. The prior distributions examined were the constrained noninformative (CNI) prior used currently by the MSPI, a mixture of conjugate priors, the Jeffreys noninformative prior, a nonconjugate log(istic)-normal prior, and the minimally informative prior investigated in (Kelly et al., 2010). The mid-white performance state was set at ?CDF = ?10 ? 10-6/yr. For each simulated time history, a check is made of whether the calculated ?CDF is above or below 10-6/yr. If the parameters were at their baseline values, and ?CDF > 10-6/yr, this is counted as a false positive. Conversely, if one or all of the parameters are set to values corresponding to ?CDF > 10-6/yr but that time history�s ?CDF histories (100,000). Results are presented for a set of base case parameter values, and three sensitivity cases in which the number of FOTP demands was reduced, along with the Birnbaum importance of the FOTP.
Benchmark scenarios for the NMSSM
We discuss constrained and semi--constrained versions of the next--to--minimal supersymmetric extension of the Standard Model (NMSSM) in which a singlet Higgs superfield is added to the two doublet superfields that are present in the minimal extension (MSSM). This leads to a richer Higgs and neutralino spectrum and allows for many interesting phenomena that are not present in the MSSM. In particular, light Higgs particles are still allowed by current constraints and could appear as decay products of the heavier Higgs states, rendering their search rather difficult at the LHC. We propose benchmark scenarios which address the new phenomenological features, consistent with present constraints from colliders and with the dark matter relic density, and with (semi--)universal soft terms at the GUT scale. We present the corresponding spectra for the Higgs particles, their couplings to gauge bosons and fermions and their most important decay branching ratios. A brief survey of the search strategies for these states at the LHC is given.
A. Djouadi; M. Drees; U. Ellwanger; R. Godbole; C. Hugonie; S. F. King; S. Lehti; S. Moretti; A. Nikitenko; I. Rottlaender; M. Schumacher; A. Teixeira
Recoverable Robust Knapsack: the Discrete Scenario Case
Feb 24, 2011... different customers according to their demands maximizing the profit of ... In this paper, we show that for a fixed number of discrete scenarios�...
energy scenarios | OpenEI Community
- 14:37 Four new publications help advance renewable energy development energy scenarios fossil fuels OECD OpenEI policy Renewable Energy Four publications giving guidance to...
Transport Test Problems for Radiation Detection Scenarios
This is the final report and deliverable for the project. It is a list of the details of the test cases for radiation detection scenarios.
Shaver, Mark W.; Miller, Erin A.; Wittman, Richard S.; McDonald, Benjamin S.
California Energy Demand Scenario Projections to 2050
energy scenarios to explore alternative energy pathways indo not include the alternative energy pathways (such asmodeling to investigate alternative energy supply strategies
McCarthy, Ryan; Yang, Christopher; Ogden, Joan M.
California Energy Demand Scenario Projections to 2050 RyanResearch Program California Energy Commission November 7,Chris Kavalec. California Energy Commission. CEC (2003a)
2010 - 2025 Scenario Analysis and Transition Strategies
2025 Scenario Analysis Sig Gronich Technology Validation Manager Manager- Transition Strategies DOE Hydrogen Program DOE Hydrogen Program The President's Hydrogen Fuel Initiative...
Short-Term Energy Outlook Supplement: 2013 Outlook for Gulf of Mexico Hurricane-Related Production Outages
U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site
2013 Outlook for Gulf of Mexico 2013 Outlook for Gulf of Mexico Hurricane-Related Production Outages June 2013 Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 U.S. Energy Information Administration | STEO Supplement: 2013 Hurricane Outlook i This report was prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. By law, EIA's data, analyses, and forecasts are independent of approval by any other officer or employee of the United States Government. The views in this report therefore should not be construed as representing those of the Department of Energy or other federal agencies. June 2013 U.S. Energy Information Administration | STEO Supplement: 2013 Hurricane Outlook 1
2304 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON INFORMATION THEORY, VOL. 55, NO. 5, MAY 2009 Service-Outage-Based Power and Rate Control for
and the receiver and use the channel state information (CSI) to dynamically adapt transmit power and rate according function. The service-outage-based power and rate allocation problem is stated below. In the following, we.g., wireless RF communication, dynamic allocation of resources, e.g., transmit power and in- formation rate
Franceschetti, Massimo
How should indicators be found for scenario monitoring ?
Scenario planning is a widely used approach for developing long-term strategies. The typical scenario process involves developing scenarios, identifying strategies whose success is contingent on the scenario, and monitoring ...
He, Zheng, M. Eng. Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Empirical probabilities in monadic deductive databases
We address the problem of supporting empirical probabilities in monadic logic databases. Though the semantics of multivalued logic programs has been studied extensively, the treatment of probabilities as results of statistical findings has not been studied ...
Raymond T. Ng; V. S. Subrahmanian
Free probability and combinatorics Preliminary version
Free probability and combinatorics Preliminary version Michael Anshelevich c 2012 December 4, 2012 #12;Preface These notes were used in a topics course Free probability and combinatorics taught topics. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 3 Free
Anshelevich, Michael
Comments on climate change scenario development
A short review is presented of progress in climate change scenario development. Sources of uncertainty are discussed. Critical assessment of climate models for their veracity in describing the present climate is considered essential. Methods of deriving ... Keywords: Climate change, Global climate models, Greenhouse effect, Scenarios
A. B. Pittock
Quantum Theory Event-Probability Interpretation
In this article the propagation of pointlike event probabilities in space is considered. New interpretation of Quantum Theory is formulated.
Quznetsov, Gunn [Chelyabinsk State University, Chelyabinsk, Ural (Russian Federation)
Geographic Resource Map of Frozen Pipe Probabilities
Presentation slide details a resource map showing the probability of frozen pipes in the geographic United States.
Wavelengths, Transition Probabilities, and Energy Levels for ...
Page 1. Wavelengths, Transition Probabilities, and Energy Levels for the Spectra of Sodium �Na I�Na XI� JE Sansonettia ...
Illustrative Scenarios Tool | Open Energy Information
Illustrative Scenarios Tool Illustrative Scenarios Tool Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Illustrative Scenarios Tool Agency/Company /Organization: European Commission Focus Area: GHG Inventory Development Topics: Analysis Tools Website: www.eutransportghg2050.eu/cms/illustrative-scenarios-tool/ The SULTAN (SUstainabLe TrANsport) Illustrative Scenarios Tool is a high-level calculator to help provide estimates of the possible impacts of policy on transport in the European Union. The tool allows quick scoping of a range of transport policy options to help understand what scale of action might be required and may also be used as part of the analysis for final technical outputs of a project. How to Use This Tool This tool is most helpful when using these strategies:
Stephen Potter: Exploring rail futures using scenarios EXPLORING RAIL FUTURES USING SCENARIOS: EXPERIENCE AND POTENTIAL
and other research outputs Exploring rail futures using scenarios: experience and potential Conference Item How to cite:
Stephen Potter
Calibrating subjective probabilities using hierarchical bayesian models
A body of psychological research has examined the correspondence between a judge's subjective probability of an event's outcome and the event's actual outcome. The research generally shows that subjective probabilities are noisy and do not ... Keywords: Bayesian methods, calibration, confidence, expert judgment, subjective probability
Edgar C. Merkle
The Programmer's Apprentice: A Program Design Scenario
A scenario is used to illustrate the capabilities of a proposed Design Apprentice, focussing on the area of detailed, low-level design. Given a specification, the Design Apprentice will be able to make many of the ...
Rich, Charles
Workforce management strategies in a disaster scenario.
A model of the repair operations of the voice telecommunications network is used to study labor management strategies under a disaster scenario where the workforce is overwhelmed. The model incorporates overtime and fatigue functions and optimizes the deployment of the workforce based on the cost of the recovery and the time it takes to recover. The analysis shows that the current practices employed in workforce management in a disaster scenario are not optimal and more strategic deployment of that workforce is beneficial.
Kelic, Andjelka; Turk, Adam L.
Average transmission probability of a random stack
The transmission through a stack of identical slabs that are separated by gaps with random widths is usually treated by calculating the average of the logarithm of the transmission probability. We show how to calculate the average of the transmission probability itself with the aid of a recurrence relation and derive analytical upper and lower bounds. The upper bound, when used as an approximation for the transmission probability, is unreasonably good and we conjecture that it is asymptotically exact.
Yin Lu; Christian Miniatura; Berthold-Georg Englert
Bayesian Probabilities and the Histories Algebra
We attempt a justification of a generalisation of the consistent histories programme using a notion of probability that is valid for all complete sets of history propositions. This consists of introducing Cox's axioms of probability theory and showing that our candidate notion of probability obeys them. We also give a generalisation of Bayes' theorem and comment upon how Bayesianism should be useful for the quantum gravity/cosmology programmes.
Thomas Marlow
The implications of future building scenarios for long-term building energy research and development
This report presents a discussion of alternative future scenarios of the building environment to the year 2010 and assesses the implications these scenarios present for long-term building energy R and D. The scenarios and energy R and D implications derived from them are intended to serve as the basis from which a strategic plan can be developed for the management of R and D programs conducted by the Office of Buildings and Community Systems, US Department of Energy. The scenarios and analysis presented here have relevance not only for government R and D programs; on the contrary, it is hoped that the results of this effort will be of interest and useful to researchers in both private and public sector organizations that deal with building energy R and D. Making R and D decisions today based on an analysis that attempts to delineate the nexus of events 25 years in the future are clearly decisions made in the face of uncertainty. Yet, the effective management of R and D programs requires a future-directed understanding of markets, technological developments, and environmental factors, as well as their interactions. The analysis presented in this report is designed to serve that need. Although the probability of any particular scenario actually occurring is uncertain, the scenarios to be presented are sufficiently robust to set bounds within which to examine the interaction of forces that will shape the future building environment.
Flynn, W.T.
Evaluation of failure probability via surrogate models
Evaluation of failure probability of a given system requires sampling of the system response and can be computationally expensive. Therefore it is desirable to construct an accurate surrogate model for the system response and subsequently to sample the ... Keywords: Failure probability, Polynomial chaos, Sampling, Stochastic computation
Jing Li; Dongbin Xiu
Information Retrieval Estimation via Fuzzy Probability
he face of a fuzzy probability estimate is investigated. Results: We have proposed a novel method to calculate fuzzy probability. This method will be applied to calculate a document's relevance (in terms of fuzzy probability) for a query. By using the calculated fuzzy probabilities, different crisp probabilities can be computed [2] with respect to different uncertainty levels (such as certain and quite certain), which provides a flexible way to evaluate the relevance of a given document. Conclusions: This study has proposed a novel method to calculate fuzzy probability. At this stage, no experimental work has yet been carried out. The experimental evaluation of this method in information retrieval will be our most important future work. possibility 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 0 probability Figure 1: A fuzzy probability estimation of a document to be "very relevant" References
Zhiheng Huang The; Zhiheng Huang; Tam�s D. Gedeon
Avoiding Negative Probabilities in Quantum Mechanics
As currently understood since its discovery, the bare Klein-Gordon theory consists of negative quantum probabilities which are considered to be physically meaningless if not outright obsolete. Despite this annoying setback, these negative probabilities are what led the great Paul Dirac in 1928 to the esoteric discovery of the Dirac Equation. The Dirac Equation led to one of the greatest advances in our understanding of the physical world. In this reading, we ask the seemingly senseless question, "Do negative probabilities exist in quantum mechanics?" In an effort to answer this question, we arrive at the conclusion that depending on the choice one makes of the quantum probability current, one will obtain negative probabilities. We thus propose a new quantum probability current of the Klein-Gordon theory. This quantum probability current leads directly to positive definite quantum probabilities. Because these negative probabilities are in the bare Klein-Gordon theory, intrinsically a result of negative energies, the fact that we here arrive at a theory with positive probabilities, means that negative energy particles are not to be considered problematic as is the case in the bare Klein-Gordon theory. From an abstract-objective stand-point; in comparison with positive energy particles, the corollary is that negative energy particles should have equal chances to exist. As to why these negative energy particles do not exist, this is analogous to asking why is it that Dirac's antimatter does not exist in equal proportions with matter. This problem of why negative energy particles do not exist in equal proportions with positive energy particles is a problem that needs to be solved by a future theory.
Golden Gadzirayi Nyambuya
Formulating Climate Change Scenarios to Inform Climate - Resilient...
Formulating Climate Change Scenarios to Inform Climate - Resilient Development Strategies Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary Name: Formulating Climate Change Scenarios to...
Analysis of Long-range Clean Energy Investment Scenarios for...
of Long-range Clean Energy Investment Scenarios for Eritrea, East Africa Title Analysis of Long-range Clean Energy Investment Scenarios for Eritrea, East Africa Publication Type...
DOE Hydrogen Analysis Repository: H2A Delivery Scenario Analysis...
Scenario Analysis Model (HDSAM) Project Summary Full Title: H2A Delivery Scenario Analysis Model (HDSAM) Project ID: 218 Principal Investigator: Marianne Mintz Keywords: Models;...
Technical assessment of community solar future scenarios
The Kent Solar Project goal is to develop energy future scenarios for the community based upon the input of a cross-section of the population. It has been primarily a non-technical development in an attempt to gain community commitment. Social/political/economic issues have been identified as the key obstacles in fulfilling the future scenarios. To communicate the feasibility of solar energy in Kent, Ohio an analysis of the economic potential for solar energy was developed. The Solar Project calls for 25 per cent reduction of present fossil fuel quantities in 1990, achievable by conservation measures, and a 50 per cent reduction in 2000, which necessitates solar technology implementation. The technical analysis is demonstrating the future scenarios to be both feasible and economically wise. The technical assessment requires an in-depth data base of existing comsumption which is not easily identifiable.
Kremers, J.A.
Calculation of SY tank annulus continuous air monitor readings after postulated leak scenarios
The objective of this work was to determine whether or not a continuous air monitor (CAM) monitoring the annulus of one of the SY Tanks would be expected to alarm after three postulated leak scenarios. Using data and references provided by Lockheed Martin`s Tank Farm personnel, estimated CAM readings were calculated at specific times after the postulated scenarios might have occurred. Potential CAM readings above background at different times were calculated for the following leak scenarios: Leak rate of 0.01 gal/min; Leak rate of 0.03 gal/min (best estimate of the maximum probable leak rate from a single-shell tank); and Leak of 73 gal (equivalent to a {1/4}-in. leak on the floor of the annulus). The equation used to make the calculations along with descriptions and/or explanations of the terms are included, as is a list of the assumptions and/or values used for the calculations.
Kenoyer, J.L.
Global Fits of the Minimal Universal Extra Dimensions Scenario
In theories with Universal Extra-Dimensions (UED), the {gamma}{sub 1} particle, first excited state of the hypercharge gauge boson, provides an excellent Dark Matter (DM) candidate. Here we use a modified version of the SuperBayeS code to perform a Bayesian analysis of the minimal UED scenario, in order to assess its detectability at accelerators and with DM experiments. We derive in particular the most probable range of mass and scattering cross sections off nucleons, keeping into account cosmological and electroweak precision constraints. The consequences for the detectability of the {gamma}{sub 1} with direct and indirect experiments are dramatic. The spin-independent cross section probability distribution peaks at {approx} 10{sup -11} pb, i.e. below the sensitivity of ton-scale experiments. The spin-dependent cross-section drives the predicted neutrino flux from the center of the Sun below the reach of present and upcoming experiments. The only strategy that remains open appears to be direct detection with ton-scale experiments sensitive to spin-dependent cross-sections. On the other hand, the LHC with 1 fb{sup -1} of data should be able to probe the current best-fit UED parameters.
Bertone, Gianfranco; /Zurich U. /Paris, Inst. Astrophys.; Kong, Kyoungchul; /SLAC /Kansas U.; de Austri, Roberto Ruiz; /Valencia U., IFIC; Trotta, Roberto; /Imperial Coll., London
Review of scenario selection approaches for performance assessment of high-level waste repositories and related issues.
The selection of scenarios representing plausible realizations of the future conditions-with associated probabilities of occurrence-that can affect the long-term performance of a high-level radioactive waste (HLW) repository is the commonly used method for treating the uncertainty in the prediction of the future states of the system. This method, conventionally referred to as the ``scenario approach,`` while common is not the only method to deal with this uncertainty; other method ``ch as the environmental simulation approach (ESA), have also been proposed. Two of the difficulties with the scenario approach are the lack of uniqueness in the definition of the term ``scenario`` and the lack of uniqueness in the approach to formulate scenarios, which relies considerably on subjective judgments. Consequently, it is difficult to assure that a complete and unique set of scenarios can be defined for use in a performance assessment. Because scenarios are key to the determination of the long-term performance of the repository system, this lack of uniqueness can present a considerable challenge when attempting to reconcile the set of scenarios, and their level of detail, obtained using different approaches, particularly among proponents and regulators of a HLW repository.
Banano, E.J. [Beta Corporation International, Albuquerque, NM (United States); Baca, R.G. [Southwest Research Inst., San Antonio, TX (United States). Center for Nuclear Waste Regulatory Analyses
Velocity Probability Density Functions for Oceanic Floats
Probability density functions (PDFs) of daily velocities from subsurface floats deployed in the North Atlantic and equatorial Atlantic Oceans are examined. In general, the PDFs are approximately Gaussian for small velocities, but with significant ...
Annalisa Bracco; J. H. LaCasce; Antonello Provenzale
A Probability Distribution Model for Rain Rate
A systematic approach is suggested for modeling the probability distribution of rain rate. Rain rate, conditional on rain and averaged over a region, is modeled as a temporally homogeneous diffusion process with appropriate boundary conditions. ...
Benjamin Kedem; Harry Pavlopoulos; Xiaodong Guan; David A. Short
Catalytic Conversion Probabilities for Bipartite Pure States
For two given bipartite-entangled pure states, an expression is obtained for the least upper bound of conversion probabilities using catalysis. The attainability of the upper bound can also be decided if that bound is less than one.
S. Turgut
Predictability of Seasonal Precipitation Using Joint Probabilities
This paper tests whether seasonal mean precipitation is predictable using a new method that estimates and analyzes joint probabilities. The new estimation method is to partition the globe into boxes, pool all data within the box to estimate a ...
M. Tugrul Yilmaz; Timothy DelSole
Velocity Probability Density Functions from Altimetry
Probability density functions (pdfs) are employed to evaluate the distribution of velocities in the global ocean. This study computes pdfs of ocean surface velocity using altimetric data from the TOPEX/Poseidon satellite. Results show that the ...
Sarah T. Gille; Stefan G. Llewellyn Smith
Neutron initiation probability in fast burst reactor
Based on the probability balance of neutron random events in multiply system, the four random process of neutron in prompt super-critical is described and then the equation of neutron initiation probability W(r,E,{Omega},t) is deduced. On the assumption of static, slightly prompt super-critical and the two factorial approximation, the formula of the average probability of 'one' neutron is derived which is the same with the result derived from the point model. The MC simulation using point model is applied in Godiva- II and CFBR-II, and the simulation result of one neutron initiation is well consistent with the theory that the initiation probability of Godiva- II inverted commas CFBR-II burst reactor are 0.00032, 0.00027 respectively on the ordinary burst operation. (authors)
Liu, X.; Du, J.; Xie, Q.; Fan, X. [Inst. of Nuclear Physics and Chemistry, China Academy of Engineering Physics, No.64, Mianshan Road, Mianyang, Sichuan (China)
Biomass Scenario Model | Open Energy Information
Biomass Scenario Model Biomass Scenario Model Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) Agency/Company /Organization: National Renewable Energy Laboratory Partner: Department of Energy (DOE) Office of the Biomass Program Sector: Energy Focus Area: Biomass Phase: Determine Baseline, Evaluate Options Topics: Pathways analysis, Policies/deployment programs, Resource assessment Resource Type: Software/modeling tools User Interface: Desktop Application Website: bsm.nrel.gov/ Country: United States Cost: Free OpenEI Keyword(s): EERE tool, Biomass Scenario Model UN Region: Northern America Coordinates: 37.09024°, -95.712891° Loading map... {"minzoom":false,"mappingservice":"googlemaps3","type":"ROADMAP","zoom":14,"types":["ROADMAP","SATELLITE","HYBRID","TERRAIN"],"geoservice":"google","maxzoom":false,"width":"600px","height":"350px","centre":false,"title":"","label":"","icon":"","visitedicon":"","lines":[],"polygons":[],"circles":[],"rectangles":[],"copycoords":false,"static":false,"wmsoverlay":"","layers":[],"controls":["pan","zoom","type","scale","streetview"],"zoomstyle":"DEFAULT","typestyle":"DEFAULT","autoinfowindows":false,"kml":[],"gkml":[],"fusiontables":[],"resizable":false,"tilt":0,"kmlrezoom":false,"poi":true,"imageoverlays":[],"markercluster":false,"searchmarkers":"","locations":[{"text":"","title":"","link":null,"lat":37.09024,"lon":-95.712891,"alt":0,"address":"","icon":"","group":"","inlineLabel":"","visitedicon":""}]}
Enterprise mobile product strategy using scenario planning
The Mobile industry is changing at a rapid pace and so is the behavior of enterprise workforce which uses mobile technologies. When planning for a long-term product roadmap, one has to consider a myriad of evolution trends and forecasts to determine ... Keywords: Mobile enterprise, product strategy, scenario planning, strategic framework, wireless technology
Sami Muneer; Chetan Sharma
Scenarios for a Clean Energy Future ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
was provided by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE of Policy). Additional funding from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Office of AtmosphericScenarios for a Clean Energy Future xxiii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Primary funding for this report
A scenario is used to illustrate the capabilities of a proposed Design Apprentice, focussing on the area of detailed, low-level design. Given a specification, the Design Apprentice will be able to make many of the design decisions needed to synthesize the required program. The Design Apprentice will also be able to detect various kinds of contradictions and omissions in a specifica- tion.
Charles Rich; Richard C. Waters
Scenarios for a Sustainable Transportation Future
· To present some snapshots for diverse suites of options that can meet the target #12;Efficient Biofuels · To determine the most important areas to target · To see the results and tradeoffs resulting from specific, biofuels, efficiency (no alt fuels), transport demand and VMT reduction · 80% Reduction (80in50) Scenarios
California at Davis, University of
Danish Greenhouse Gas Reduction Scenarios for 2020
Danish Greenhouse Gas Reduction Scenarios for 2020 and 2050 February 2008 Prepared by Ea Energy 54 2.9 ENERGY RESOURCES 55 3 DANISH GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSION 58 3.1 GREENHOUSE GAS SOURCES 58 4 of 2007, Ea Energy Analyses and Risø DTU developed a number of greenhouse gas emissions reduction
Design Scenarios: Enabling transparent parametric design spaces
This paper presents a novel methodology called Design Scenarios (DSs) intended for use in conceptual design of buildings. DS enables multidisciplinary design teams to streamline the requirements definition, alternative generation, analysis, and decision-making ... Keywords: Conceptual design, Design spaces, Ontology, Parametric modeling, Process mapping, Requirements modeling
Victor Gane; John Haymaker
Scenario Evaluation, Regionalization & Analysis (SERA) | Open Energy
Scenario Evaluation, Regionalization & Analysis (SERA) Scenario Evaluation, Regionalization & Analysis (SERA) Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary Name: Scenario Evaluation, Regionalization & Analysis (SERA) Agency/Company /Organization: National Renewable Energy Laboratory Scenario Evaluation, Regionalization & Analysis (SERA) Screenshot Logo: Scenario Evaluation, Regionalization & Analysis (SERA) SERA (Scenario Evaluation, Regionalization & Analysis) is a geospatially and temporally oriented infrastructure analysis model that determines the optimal production and delivery scenarios for hydrogen, given resource availability and technology cost. Given annual H2 demands on a city-by-city basis, forecasts of feedstock costs, and a catalog of available hydrogen production and transportation technologies, the model generates
A lifestyle-based scenario, Energy Policy A lifestyle-based scenario for U.S. buildings
A lifestyle-based scenario, Energy Policy A lifestyle-based scenario for U.S. buildings the speculative nature of the #12;A lifestyle-based scenario, Energy Policy exercise, the rationale was to broaden implications of these changes, and how might we create energy policies to 2 #12;A lifestyle-based scenario
Diamond, Richard
Reduce power outages
A case history shows the cost-effectiveness of doing a reliability study on a new, grassroots refinery constructed in Venezuela. Constructing grassroots refineries in developing countries pose many challenges, especially when considering electrical power and steam supplies. Without dependable electrical and steam sources, the refinery will not operate according to design expectations. Consequently, utility systems are critical and expensive challenges that must be considered early in design. Because of tighter operating budgets, refiners are equally interested in cutting out system overdesign. Redundant backup systems are damaging in capital and operating expenditures. Using reliability analysis techniques, designers can evaluate the reliability, availability and maintainability of operating systems. In the following example, a Venezuelan operating company used a reliability analysis to: assess onstream factors for the refinery`s power plant; identify critical equipment that have the greatest impact on available electrical and steam sources; and achieve a cost-effective equipment configuration that eliminates redundant backup systems. Results from the study allowed decision-makers to initiate objective plans and created an equipment-failure database that will service the refinery for its useful life.
Goyal, R. [BAPCO, Awali (Bahrain); Ramirez, R. [Corpoven S.A., Caracas (Venezuela)
Microsoft Word - Price Probabilities Supplement.doc
0 0 1 April 2010 Short-Term Energy Outlook Supplement: Probabilities of Possible Future Prices 1 EIA introduced a monthly analysis of energy price volatility and forecast uncertainty in the October 2009 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). Included in the analysis were charts portraying confidence intervals around the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) futures prices of West Texas Intermediate (equivalent to light sweet crude oil) and Henry Hub natural gas contracts. The March 2010 STEO added another set of charts listing the probability of the future realized price exceeding or falling below given price levels (see Figures 1A and 1B for West Texas Intermediate crude oil price probabilities). These charts are also available as spreadsheets allowing users to input their own prices to
Mobile IPv6 bootstrapping in split scenario
This document specifies an Internet standards track protocol for the Internet community, and requests discussion and suggestions for improvements. Please refer to the current edition of the "Internet Official Protocol Standards " (STD 1) for the standardization state and status of this protocol. Distribution of this memo is unlimited. A Mobile IPv6 node requires a Home Agent address, a home address, and IPsec security associations with its Home Agent before it can start utilizing Mobile IPv6 service. RFC 3775 requires that some or all of these are statically configured. This document defines how a Mobile IPv6 node can bootstrap this information from non-topological information and security credentials pre-configured on the Mobile Node. The solution defined in this document solves the split scenario described in the Mobile IPv6 bootstrapping problem statement in RFC 4640. The split scenario refers to the case where the Mobile
G. Giaretta; J. Kempf; V. Devarapalli
Blackbody radiation in a nonextensive scenario
An exact analysis of the N-dimensional blackbody radiation process in a nonextensive � la Tsallis scenario is performed for values of the nonextensive�s index in the range (0 < q < 1). The recently advanced �Optimal Lagrange Multipliers � (OLM) technique has been employed. The results are consistent with those of the extensive, q = 1 case. The generalization of the celebrated laws of Planck, Stefan-Boltzmann, and Wien are investigated.
S. Mart�nez; F. Pennini; A. Plastino; C. Tessone
An Experiment on Graph Analysis Methodologies for Scenarios
Visual graph representations are increasingly used to represent, display, and explore scenarios and the structure of organizations. The graph representations of scenarios are readily understood, and commercial software is available to create and manage these representations. The purpose of the research presented in this paper is to explore whether these graph representations support quantitative assessments of the underlying scenarios. The underlying structure of the scenarios is the information that is being targeted in the experiment and the extent to which the scenarios are similar in content. An experiment was designed that incorporated both the contents of the scenarios and analysts� graph representations of the scenarios. The scenarios� content was represented graphically by analysts, and both the structure and the semantics of the graph representation were attempted to be used to understand the content. The structure information was not found to be discriminating for the content of the scenarios in this experiment; but, the semantic information was discriminating.
Brothers, Alan J.; Whitney, Paul D.; Wolf, Katherine E.; Kuchar, Olga A.; Chin, George
Financial risk measurement with imprecise probabilities
Although financial risk measurement is a largely investigated research area, its relationship with imprecise probabilities has been mostly overlooked. However, risk measures can be viewed as instances of upper (or lower) previsions, thus letting us apply ... Keywords: Coherent and convex risk measures, Dilation, Envelope theorems, Imprecise previsions, Natural extension, Risk measures, Shortfall, Value-at-Risk (VaR)
Paolo Vicig
Probability in modal interpretations of quantum mechanics
Probability in modal interpretations of quantum mechanics Dennis Dieks Institute for the History interpretations have the ambition to construe quantum mechanics as an ob- jective, man-independent description of physical reality. Their second leading idea is probabilism: quantum mechanics does not completely fix
Seevinck, Michiel
Evaluation of arresters' failure probability using ANN
Lightning is a major cause of faults on overhead transmission high voltage lines. In order to improve the lightning performance of the lines and to reduce the failure rate, surge arresters are installed between each phase and earth. The failure probability ... Keywords: Simulink�7.1 package, artificial neural networks, surge arresters, transmission lines
C. A. Christodoulou; I. A. Stathopulos
A Model for Estimating Persistence Probabilities
A model for estimating the probability that a weather event will persist for at least n hours was developed on 13 years of hourly wind-speed data taken at nine stations in the eastern United States and tested on data at seven stations in the ...
Iver A. Lund; Paul Tsipouras
An Assessment of Thunderstorm Probability Forecasting Skill
An analysis of the 11-year (1983�1993) skill of subjective 24-h thunderstorm probability forecasts made by staff and students at the State University of New York at Albany is presented. Skill is measured relative to the long-term National Weather ...
Lance F. Bosart; Michael G. Landin
Bayesian Generalized Probability Calculus for Density Matrices
One of the main concepts in quantum physics is a density matrix, which is a symmetric positive definite matrix of trace one. Finite probability distributions can be seen as a special case when the density matrix is restricted to be diagonal. We develop a probability calculus based on these more general distributions that includes definitions of joints, conditionals and formulas that relate these, including analogs of the Theorem of Total Probability and various Bayes rules for the calculation of posterior density matrices. The resulting calculus parallels the familiar "conventional" probability calculus and always retains the latter as a special case when all matrices are diagonal. We motivate both the conventional and the generalized Bayes rule with a minimum relative entropy principle, where the Kullbach-Leibler version gives the conventional Bayes rule and Umegaki's quantum relative entropy the new Bayes rule for density matrices. Whereas the conventional Bayesian methods maintain uncertainty about which model has the highest data likelihood, the generalization maintains uncertainty about which unit direction has the largest variance. Surprisingly the bounds also generalize: as in the conventional setting we upper bound the negative log likelihood of the data by the negative log likelihood of the MAP estimator.
Manfred K Warmuth; Dima Kuzmin
Illustrative Scenarios Tool (European Union) | Open Energy Information
Illustrative Scenarios Tool (European Union) Illustrative Scenarios Tool (European Union) Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Illustrative Scenarios Tool (European Union) Focus Area: Propane Topics: Opportunity Assessment & Screening Website: www.eutransportghg2050.eu/cms/illustrative-scenarios-tool/ Equivalent URI: cleanenergysolutions.org/content/illustrative-scenarios-tool-european- Language: English Policies: "Deployment Programs,Regulations" is not in the list of possible values (Deployment Programs, Financial Incentives, Regulations) for this property. DeploymentPrograms: Technical Assistance Regulations: Emissions Standards The SUstainabLe TrANsport (SULTAN) Illustrative Scenarios Tool is a high-level calculator to help provide estimates of the possible impacts of
Underground infrastructure damage for a Chicago scenario
Estimating effects due to an urban IND (improvised nuclear device) on underground structures and underground utilities is a challenging task. Nuclear effects tests performed at the Nevada Test Site (NTS) during the era of nuclear weapons testing provides much information on how underground military structures respond. Transferring this knowledge to answer questions about the urban civilian environment is needed to help plan responses to IND scenarios. Explosions just above the ground surface can only couple a small fraction of the blast energy into an underground shock. The various forms of nuclear radiation have limited penetration into the ground. While the shock transmitted into the ground carries only a small fraction of the blast energy, peak stresses are generally higher and peak ground displacement is lower than in the air blast. While underground military structures are often designed to resist stresses substantially higher than due to the overlying rocks and soils (overburden), civilian structures such as subways and tunnels would generally only need to resist overburden conditions with a suitable safety factor. Just as we expect the buildings themselves to channel and shield air blast above ground, basements and other underground openings as well as changes of geology will channel and shield the underground shock wave. While a weaker shock is expected in an urban environment, small displacements on very close-by faults, and more likely, soils being displaced past building foundations where utility lines enter could readily damaged or disable these services. Immediately near an explosion, the blast can 'liquefy' a saturated soil creating a quicksand-like condition for a period of time. We extrapolate the nuclear effects experience to a Chicago-based scenario. We consider the TARP (Tunnel and Reservoir Project) and subway system and the underground lifeline (electric, gas, water, etc) system and provide guidance for planning this scenario.
Dey, Thomas N [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Bos, Rabdall J [Los Alamos National Laboratory
NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 | Open Energy Information
NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 Jump to: navigation, search Name NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 Agency/Company /Organization National Institute for Environmental Studies Topics Background analysis, Low emission development planning Website http://2050.nies.go.jp/LCS/ind Program Start 2009 Country Bangladesh, China, India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam UN Region Eastern Asia References 2050 Low-Carbon Society Scenarios (LCSs)[1] National and Local Scenarios National and local scenarios available from the activity webpage: http://2050.nies.go.jp/LCS/index.html References ↑ "2050 Low-Carbon Society Scenarios (LCSs)" Retrieved from "http://en.openei.org/w/index.php?title=NIES_Low-Carbon_Society_Scenarios_2050&oldid=553682"
Empirically Downscaled Multimodel Ensemble Temperature and Precipitation Scenarios for Norway
A number of different global climate model scenarios are used in order to infer local climate scenarios for various locations in Norway. Results from empirically downscaled multimodel ensembles of temperature and precipitation for the period 2000�...
Rasmus E. Benestad
Modeling Clean and Secure Energy Scenarios for the Indian Power...
Clean and Secure Energy Scenarios for the Indian Power Sector in 2030 Title Modeling Clean and Secure Energy Scenarios for the Indian Power Sector in 2030 Publication Type Report...
The Development of Impact-Oriented Climate Scenarios
Appropriate scenarios of future climate must be developed prior to any assessment of the impacts of climate change. Information needed was examined in consultation with those having experience in scenario use. Most assessors require regional ...
P. J. Robinson; P. L. Finkelstein
Integrated Operation Scenarios ITPA Topical Group Meeting | Princeton...
20, 2010, 9:00am to April 23, 2010, 5:00pm Conference Princeton, NJ Integrated Operation Scenarios ITPA Topical Group Meeting Integrated Operation Scenarios ITPA Topical Group...
Scenario-Driven Training | Y-12 National Security Complex
Scenario-Driven Training Scenario-Driven Training An initial entry team member assesses the overall hazards in a clandestine lab. Y-12's Nuclear and Radiological Field Training...
FCT Systems Analysis: 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen...
-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure to someone by E-mail Share FCT Systems Analysis: 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell...
FCT Systems Analysis: DOE 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis Meeting...
to someone by E-mail Share FCT Systems Analysis: DOE 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis Meeting: January 31, 2007 on Facebook Tweet about FCT Systems Analysis: DOE 2010-2025 Scenario...
Free Energy Changes, Fluctuations, and Path Probabilities
We illustrate some of the static and dynamic relations discovered by Cohen, Crooks, Evans, Jarzynski, Kirkwood, Morriss, Searles, and Zwanzig. These relations link nonequilibrium processes to equilibrium isothermal free energy changes and to dynamical path probabilities. We include ideas suggested by Dellago, Geissler, Oberhofer, and Schoell-Paschinger. Our treatment is intended to be pedagogical, for use in an updated version of our book: Time Reversibility, Computer Simulation, and Chaos. Comments are very welcome.
William G. Hoover; Carol G. Hoover
Consistent probabilities in loop quantum cosmology
A fundamental issue for any quantum cosmological theory is to specify how probabilities can be assigned to various quantum events or sequences of events such as the occurrence of singularities or bounces. In previous work, we have demonstrated how this issue can be successfully addressed within the consistent histories approach to quantum theory for Wheeler-DeWitt-quantized cosmological models. In this work, we generalize that analysis to the exactly solvable loop quantization of a spatially flat, homogeneous and isotropic cosmology sourced with a massless, minimally coupled scalar field known as sLQC. We provide an explicit, rigorous and complete decoherent histories formulation for this model and compute the probabilities for the occurrence of a quantum bounce vs. a singularity. Using the scalar field as an emergent internal time, we show for generic states that the probability for a singularity to occur in this model is zero, and that of a bounce is unity, complementing earlier studies of the expectation values of the volume and matter density in this theory. We also show from the consistent histories point of view that all states in this model, whether quantum or classical, achieve arbitrarily large volume in the limit of infinite `past' or `future' scalar `time', in the sense that the wave function evaluated at any arbitrary fixed value of the volume vanishes in that limit. Finally, we briefly discuss certain misconceptions concerning the utility of the consistent histories approach in these models.
David A. Craig; Parampreet Singh
Biomass Scenario Model Documentation: Data and References
The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model that represents the entire biomass-to-biofuels supply chain, from feedstock to fuel use. The BSM is a complex model that has been used for extensive analyses; the model and its results can be better understood if input data used for initialization and calibration are well-characterized. It has been carefully validated and calibrated against the available data, with data gaps filled in using expert opinion and internally consistent assumed values. Most of the main data sources that feed into the model are recognized as baseline values by the industry. This report documents data sources and references in Version 2 of the BSM (BSM2), which only contains the ethanol pathway, although subsequent versions of the BSM contain multiple conversion pathways. The BSM2 contains over 12,000 total input values, with 506 distinct variables. Many of the variables are opportunities for the user to define scenarios, while others are simply used to initialize a stock, such as the initial number of biorefineries. However, around 35% of the distinct variables are defined by external sources, such as models or reports. The focus of this report is to provide insight into which sources are most influential in each area of the supply chain.
Lin, Y.; Newes, E.; Bush, B.; Peterson, S.; Stright, D.
Disrupting digital library development with scenario informed design
In recent years, there has been great interest in scenario-based design and other forms of user-centred design. However, there are many design processes that, often for good reason, remain technology-centred. We present a case study of introducing scenarios ... Keywords: Digital libraries, Scenario based design, Software development processes, Usability evaluation
Ann Blandford; Suzette Keith; Richard Butterworth; Bob Fields; Dominic Furniss
Tools for designing and delivering multiple-perspective scenarios
This paper describes two prototype tools developed as part of a design-based investigation into the use of multiple-perspective scenarios. A multiple-perspective scenario is one constructed as many different narratives about the same events, with the ... Keywords: XML, knowledge management, scenarios, training, video-conferencing
Wally Smith; Daghan Acay; Ramon Fano; Gideon Ratner
Renewable Energy Scenarios for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
demand, since manufacturing wind turbines is not as energy-intensive as the production of solar (silicon, etc. associated with the operation of wind turbines. Moreover, despite a number of previous 22 6.4 Other Issues 23 7. Scenarios Narratives 24 7.1 Blue Scenarios 24 7.2 Yellow Scenarios 25 7
Watson, Andrew
Synthesizing hierarchical state machines from expressive scenario descriptions
There are many examples in the literature of algorithms for synthesizing state machines from scenario-based models. The motivation for these is to automate the transition from scenario-based requirements to early behavioral design models. To date, however, ... Keywords: State machine synthesis, interaction overview diagrams, scenario-based requirements, software modeling
Jon Whittle; Praveen K. Jayaraman
Automated Prototyping of User Interfaces Based on UML Scenarios
User interface (UI) prototyping and scenario engineering have become popular techniques. Yet, the transition from scenario to formal specifications and the generation of UI code is still ill-defined and essentially a manual task, and the two techniques ... Keywords: Unified Modeling Language, scenario engineering, user interface prototyping
Mohammed Elkoutbi; Isma�l Khriss; Rudolf K. Keller
A Comparison of Proliferation Resistance Measures of Misuse Scenarios Using a Markov Approach
Misuse of declared nuclear facilities is one of the important proliferation threats. The robustness of a facility against these threats is characterized by a number of proliferation resistance (PR) measures. This paper evaluates and compares PR measures for several misuse scenarios using a Markov model approach to implement the pathway analysis methodology being developed by the PR&PP (Proliferation Resistance and Physical Protection) Expert Group. Different misue strategies can be adopted by a proliferator and each strategy is expected to have different impacts on the proliferator's success. Selected as the probabilistic measure to represent proliferation resistance, the probabilities of the proliferator's success of misusing a hypothetical ESFR (Example Sodium Fast Reactor) facility system are calculated using the Markov model based on the pathways constructed for individual misuse scenarios. Insights from a comparison of strategies that are likely to be adopted by the proliferator are discussed in this paper.
Yue,M.; Cheng, L.-Y.; Bari, R.
Sensitivity studies for r-process nucleosynthesis in three astrophysical scenarios
In rapid neutron capture, or r-process, nucleosynthesis, heavy elements are built up via a sequence of neutron captures and beta decays that involves thousands of nuclei far from stability. Though we understand the basics of how the r-process proceeds, its astrophysical site is still not conclusively known. The nuclear network simulations we use to test potential astrophysical scenarios require nuclear physics data (masses, beta decay lifetimes, neutron capture rates, fission probabilities) for all of the nuclei on the neutron-rich side of the nuclear chart, from the valley of stability to the neutron drip line. Here we discuss recent sensitivity studies that aim to determine which individual pieces of nuclear data are the most crucial for r-process calculations. We consider three types of astrophysical scenarios: a traditional hot r-process, a cold r-process in which the temperature and density drop rapidly, and a neutron star merger trajectory.
R. Surman; M. Mumpower; J. Cass; I. Bentley; A. Aprahamian; G. C. McLaughlin
Calculating the probability of injected carbon dioxide plumes encountering faults
Change Special Report on Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage,Probability of Injected Carbon Dioxide Plumes Encounteringthe probability of injected carbon dioxide encountering and
Jordan, P.D.
Contributions to Stein's method and some limit theorems in probability
probability by Partha Sarathi Dey A dissertation submittedCopyright 2010 by Partha Sarathi Dey Abstract Contributionsin probability by Partha Sarathi Dey Doctor of Philosophy in
Dey, Partha Sarathi
A lifestyle-based scenario, Energy Policy A lifestyle-based scenario for U.S. buildings, and how might we create energy policies to take these changes into account. The assumption here environment. #12;A lifestyle-based scenario, Energy Policy 2 2. Methodology Forecasts for energy use
Formulating Climate Change Scenarios to Inform Climate - Resilient
Formulating Climate Change Scenarios to Inform Climate - Resilient Formulating Climate Change Scenarios to Inform Climate - Resilient Development Strategies Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary Name: Formulating Climate Change Scenarios to Inform Climate - Resilient Development Strategies Agency/Company /Organization: United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) Topics: Low emission development planning Resource Type: Guide/manual Website: www.climatefinanceoptions.org/cfo/node/256 Language: English Formulating Climate Change Scenarios to Inform Climate - Resilient Development Strategies Screenshot References: Formulating Climate Change Scenarios to Inform Climate - Resilient Development Strategies[1] Tool Overview "This guidebook is part of a series of manuals, guidebooks, and toolkits that draw upon the experience and information generated by UNDP's support
The Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) has had a longstanding goal of introducing uncertainty into the analysis it routinely conducts in compliance with the Government Performance and Results Act (GPRA) and for strategic management purposes. The need to introduce some treatment of uncertainty arises both because it would be good general management practice, and because intuitively many of the technologies under development by EERE have a considerable advantage in an uncertain world. For example, an expected kWh output from a wind generator in a future year, which is not exposed to volatile and unpredictable fuel prices, should be truly worth more than an equivalent kWh from an alternative fossil fuel fired technology. Indeed, analysts have attempted to measure this value by comparing the prices observed in fixed-price natural gas contracts compared to ones in which buyers are exposed to market prices (see Bolinger, Wiser, and Golove and (2004)). In addition to the routine reasons for exploring uncertainty given above, the history of energy markets appears to have exhibited infrequent, but troubling, regime shifts, i.e., historic turning points at which the center of gravity or fundamental nature of the system appears to have abruptly shifted. Figure 1 below shows an estimate of how the history of natural gas fired generating costs has evolved over the last three decades. The costs shown incorporate both the well-head gas price and an estimate of how improving generation technology has gradually tended to lower costs. The purpose of this paper is to explore scenario analysis as a method for introducing uncertainty into EERE's forecasting in a manner consistent with the preceding observation. The two questions are how could it be done, and what is its academic basis, if any. Despite the interest in uncertainty methods, applying them poses some major hurdles because of the heavy reliance of EERE on forecasting tools that are deterministic in nature, such as the Energy Information Administration's (EIA's) National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). NEMS is the source of the influential Annual Energy Outlook whose business-as-usual (BAU) case, the Reference Case, forms the baseline for most of the U.S. energy policy discussion. NEMS is an optimizing model because: 1. it iterates to an equilibrium among modules representing the supply, demand, and energy conversion subsectors; and 2. several subsectoral models are individually solved using linear programs (LP). Consequently, it is deeply rooted in the recent past and any effort to simulate the consequences of a major regime shift as depicted in Figure 1 must come by applying an exogenously specified scenario. And, more generally, simulating futures that lie outside of our recent historic experience, even if they do not include regime switches suggest some form of scenario approach. At the same time, the statistical validity of scenarios that deviate significantly outside the ranges of historic inputs should be questioned.
The jamming scenario - an introduction and outlook
The jamming scenario of disordered media, formulated about 10 years ago, has in recent years been advanced by analyzing model systems of granular media. This has led to various new concepts that are increasingly being explored in in a variety of systems. This chapter contains an introductory review of these recent developments and provides an outlook on their applicability to different physical systems and on future directions. The first part of the paper is devoted to an overview of the findings for model systems of frictionless spheres, focussing on the excess of low-frequency modes as the jamming point is approached. Particular attention is paid to a discussion of the cross-over frequency and length scales that govern this approach. We then discuss the effects of particle asphericity and static friction, the applicability to bubble models for wet foams in which the friction is dynamic, the dynamical arrest in colloids, and the implications for molecular glasses.
Andrea J. Liu; Sidney R. Nagel; Wim van Saarloos; Matthieu Wyart
Probability-Based Software for Grid Optimization: Improved Power System Operations Using Advanced Stochastic Optimization
GENI Project: Sandia National Laboratories is working with several commercial and university partners to develop software for market management systems (MMSs) that enable greater use of renewable energy sources throughout the grid. MMSs are used to securely and optimally determine which energy resources should be used to service energy demand across the country. Contributions of electricity to the grid from renewable energy sources such as wind and solar are intermittent, introducing complications for MMSs, which have trouble accommodating the multiple sources of price and supply uncertainties associated with bringing these new types of energy into the grid. Sandia�s software will bring a new, probability-based formulation to account for these uncertainties. By factoring in various probability scenarios for electricity production from renewable energy sources in real time, Sandia�s formula can reduce the risk of inefficient electricity transmission, save ratepayers money, conserve power, and support the future use of renewable energy.
Combined Estimation of Hydrogeologic Conceptual Model, Parameter, and Scenario Uncertainty with Application to Uranium Transport at the Hanford Site 300 Area
This report to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) describes the development and application of a methodology to systematically and quantitatively assess predictive uncertainty in groundwater flow and transport modeling that considers the combined impact of hydrogeologic uncertainties associated with the conceptual-mathematical basis of a model, model parameters, and the scenario to which the model is applied. The methodology is based on a n extension of a Maximum Likelihood implementation of Bayesian Model Averaging. Model uncertainty is represented by postulating a discrete set of alternative conceptual models for a site with associated prior model probabilities that reflect a belief about the relative plausibility of each model based on its apparent consistency with available knowledge and data. Posterior model probabilities are computed and parameter uncertainty is estimated by calibrating each model to observed system behavior; prior parameter estimates are optionally included. Scenario uncertainty is represented as a discrete set of alternative future conditions affecting boundary conditions, source/sink terms, or other aspects of the models, with associated prior scenario probabilities. A joint assessment of uncertainty results from combining model predictions computed under each scenario using as weight the posterior model and prior scenario probabilities. The uncertainty methodology was applied to modeling of groundwater flow and uranium transport at the Hanford Site 300 Area. Eight alternative models representing uncertainty in the hydrogeologic and geochemical properties as well as the temporal variability were considered. Two scenarios represent alternative future behavior of the Columbia River adjacent to the site were considered. The scenario alternatives were implemented in the models through the boundary conditions. Results demonstrate the feasibility of applying a comprehensive uncertainty assessment to large-scale, detailed groundwater flow and transport modeling and illustrate the benefits of the methodology I providing better estimates of predictive uncertiay8, quantitative results for use in assessing risk, and an improved understanding of the system behavior and the limitations of the models.
Meyer, Philip D.; Ye, Ming; Rockhold, Mark L.; Neuman, Shlomo P.; Cantrell, Kirk J.
An overview of alternative fossil fuel price and carbon regulation scenarios
Laboratory. Natural Gas Price Scenarios Among activelys 2004 IRP includes three gas price scenarios. As shownwellhead price in the High gas price scenario is $1.43/Mcf
Wiser, Ryan; Bolinger, Mark
Refinement-oriented probability for CSP
Jones and Plotkin give a general construction for forming a probabilistic powerdomain over any directed-complete partial order [Jon90, JP89]. We apply their technique to the failures/divergences semantic model for Communicating Sequential Processes [Hoa85]. The resulting probabilistic model supports a new binary operator, probabilistic choice, and retains all operators of CSP including its two existing forms of choice. An advantage of using the general construction is that it is easy to see which CSP identities remain true in the probabilistic model. A surprising consequence however is that probabilistic choice distributes through all other operators; such algebraic mobility means that the syntactic position of the choice operator gives little information about when the choice actually must occur. That in turn leads to some interesting interaction between probability and nondeterminism. A simple communications protocol is used to illustrate the probabilistic algebra, and several sugg...
Carroll Morgan; Annabelle McIver; Karen Seidel; J.W. Sanders
H2A Delivery Scenario Model and Analyses
H2A Delivery Scenario Model H2A Delivery Scenario Model and Analyses Marianne Mintz and Jerry Gillette DOE Hydrogen Delivery Analysis and High Pressure Tanks R&D Project Review Meeting February 8, 2005 2 Pioneering Science and Technology Office of Science U.S. Department of Energy Topics * Delivery Scenarios - Current status - Future scenarios * Delivery Scenarios model - Approach - Structure - Current status - Results * Pipeline modeling - Approach - Key assumptions - Results * Next Steps 3 Pioneering Science and Technology Office of Science U.S. Department of Energy Delivery Scenarios 4 Pioneering Science and Technology Office of Science U.S. Department of Energy Three-Quarters of the US Population Reside in Urbanized Areas East of the Mississippi there are many large, proximate urban areas. In the West
Greenhouse Gas Initiative Scenario Database | Open Energy Information
Greenhouse Gas Initiative Scenario Database Greenhouse Gas Initiative Scenario Database Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary Name: Greenhouse Gas Initiative Scenario Database Agency/Company /Organization: Science for Global Insight Sector: Climate, Energy, Land Topics: Baseline projection, GHG inventory, Pathways analysis Resource Type: Dataset, Online calculator, Software/modeling tools User Interface: Website Website: www.iiasa.ac.at/web-apps/ggi/GgiDb/dsd?Action=htmlpage&page=about Cost: Free References: Greenhouse Gas Initiative Scenario Database[1] The GGI (Greenhouse Gas Initiative) scenario database documents the results of a set of greenhouse gas emission scenarios that were created using the IIASA Integrated Assessment Modeling Framework and previously documented in a special issue of the Technological Forecasting and Social Change.
Undulator Hall Air Temperature Fault Scenarios
Recent experience indicates that the LCLS undulator segments must not, at any time following tuning, be allowed to change temperature by more than about {+-}2.5 C or the magnetic center will irreversibly shift outside of acceptable tolerances. This vulnerability raises a concern that under fault conditions the ambient temperature in the Undulator Hall might go outside of the safe range and potentially could require removal and retuning of all the segments. In this note we estimate changes that can be expected in the Undulator Hall air temperature for three fault scenarios: (1) System-wide power failure; (2) Heating Ventilation and Air Conditioning (HVAC) system shutdown; and (3) HVAC system temperature regulation fault. We find that for either a system-wide power failure or an HVAC system shutdown (with the technical equipment left on), the short-term temperature changes of the air would be modest due to the ability of the walls and floor to act as a heat ballast. No action would be needed to protect the undulator system in the event of a system-wide power failure. Some action to adjust the heat balance, in the case of the HVAC power failure with the equipment left on, might be desirable but is not required. On the other hand, a temperature regulation failure of the HVAC system can quickly cause large excursions in air temperature and prompt action would be required to avoid damage to the undulator system.
Sevilla, J.
Solar and Wind Energy Utilization and Project Development Scenarios
Utilization and Project Development Scenarios
(Abstract):��Solar and wind energy resources in Ethiopia have not been given due attention in the past. Some of...
Climate Change Mitigation: An Analysis of Advanced Technology Scenarios
This report documents a scenario analysis that explores three advanced technology pathways toward climate stabilization using the MiniCAM model.
Clarke, Leon E.; Wise, Marshall A.; Placet, Marylynn; Izaurralde, R Cesar; Lurz, Joshua P.; Kim, Son H.; Smith, Steven J.; Thomson, Allison M.
Scenario Modelling: A Holistic Environmental and Energy Management...
Development Contact Us Department Contacts Media Contacts Scenario Modelling: A Holistic Environmental and Energy Management Technique for Building Managers Speaker(s): James...
Mapping Climate Change Vulnerability and Impact Scenarios - A...
Mapping Climate Change Vulnerability and Impact Scenarios - A Guidebook for Sub-national Planners Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary Name: Mapping Climate Change...
Development of Sea Level Rise Scenarios for Climate Change Assessments...
Development of Sea Level Rise Scenarios for Climate Change Assessments of the Mekong Delta, Vietnam Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary Name: Development of Sea Level Rise...
Enduse Global Emissions Mitigation Scenarios (EGEMS): A New Generation...
Appliance Efficiency, bottom-up, china, emissions scenarios, end use, energy demand, forecasting, greenhouse gas emissions, india, modelling, Multi-Country, refrigerators URL...
A Method for Evaluating Fire After Earthquake Scenarios for Single...
using statistical methods to determine some aspects of the bounding scenario. Historical weather data has been used in dispersion calculations to determine the 95 th percentile...
Geographically-Based Hydrogen Demand & Infrastructure Rollout Scenario Analysis (Presentation)
This presentation by Margo Melendez at the 2007 DOE Hydrogen Program Annual Merit Review Meeting provides information about NREL's Hydrogen Demand & Infrastructure Rollout Scenario Analysis.
Melendez, M.
Non-Standard Structure Formation Scenarios
Observations on galactic scales seem to be in contradiction with recent high resolution N-body simulations. This so-called cold dark matter (CDM) crisis has been addressed in several ways, ranging from a change in fundamental physics by introducing self-interacting cold dark matter particles to a tuning of complex astrophysical processes such as global and/or local feedback. All these efforts attempt to soften density profiles and reduce the abundance of satellites in simulated galaxy halos. In this contribution we are exploring the differences between a Warm Dark Matter model and a CDM model where the power on a certain scale is reduced by introducing a narrow negative feature (''dip''). This dip is placed in a way so as to mimic the loss of power in the WDM model: both models have the same integrated power out to the scale where the power of the Dip model rises to the level of the unperturbed CDM spectrum again. Using N-body simulations we show that that the new Dip model appears to be a viable alternative to WDM while being based on different physics: where WDM requires the introduction of a new particle species the Dip stems from a non-standard inflationary period. If we are looking for an alternative to the currently challenged standard LCDM structure formation scenario, neither the LWDM nor the new Dip model can be ruled out with respect to the analysis presented in this contribution. They both make very similar predictions and the degeneracy between them can only be broken with observations yet to come.
Alexander Knebe; Brett Little; Ranty Islam; Julien Devriendt; Asim Mahmood; Joe Silk
Some Considerations on the Probability of Nuclear Fission
om THE PROBABILITY OF NUCLEAR FISSION Robert Vandenbosch andON TRE PROBABILITY OF NUCLEAR FISSION O E Contents Abstractf is the fission threshold, and the nuclear temperature T is
Vandenbosch, Robert; Seaborg, Glenn T.
Extended-Range Probability Forecasts Based on Dynamical Model Output
A probability forecast has advantages over a deterministic forecast as the former offers information about the probabilities of various possible future states of the atmosphere. As physics-based numerical models find their success in modern ...
Jianfu Pan; Huug van den Dool
On the Study of a Probability Distribution for Precipitation Totals
Some of the probability distribution models for precipitation totals and their applications are briefly reviewed. The general properties of a probability distribution model which is a mixture of gamma and Poisson distributions are discussed. A ...
Aydin �zt�rk
Simple Nonparametric Techniques for Exploring Changing Probability Distributions of Weather
Anthropogenic influences are expected to cause the probability distribution of weather variables to change in nontrivial ways. This study presents simple nonparametric methods for exploring and comparing differences in pairs of probability ...
Christopher A. T. Ferro; Abdelwaheb Hannachi; David B. Stephenson
Diversity in Interpretations of Probability: Implications for Weather Forecasting
Over the last years, probability weather forecasts have become increasingly popular due in part to the development of ensemble forecast systems. Despite its widespread use in atmospheric sciences, probability forecasting remains a subtle and ...
Ram�n de El�a; Ren� Laprise
Improvements to the Operational Tropical Cyclone Wind Speed Probability Model
The National Hurricane Center Hurricane Probability Program, which estimated the probability of a tropical cyclone passing within a specific distance of a selected set of coastal stations, was replaced by the more general Tropical Cyclone Surface ...
Mark DeMaria; John A. Knaff; Michael J. Brennan; Daniel Brown; Richard D. Knabb; Robert T. DeMaria; Andrea Schumacher; Christopher A. Lauer; David P. Roberts; Charles R. Sampson; Pablo Santos; David Sharp; Katherine A. Winters
Breaking Probability for Dominant Waves on the Sea Surface
The breaking probability is investigated for the dominant surface waves observed in three geographically diverse natural bodies of water: Lake Washington, the Black Sea, and the Southern Ocean. The breaking probability is taken as the average ...
Michael L. Banner; Alexander V. Babanin; Ian R. Young
Bayesian Probability and Scalar Performance Measures in Gaussian Models
The transformation of a real, continuous variable into an event probability is reviewed from the Bayesian point of view, after which a Gaussian model is employed to derive an explicit expression for the probability. In turn, several scalar (one-...
Caren Marzban
The Window Probability Matching Method for Rainfall Measurements with Radar
A simplified probability matching method is introduced that relies on matching the unconditional probabilities of R and Ze, using data from a C-band radar and raingage network near Darwin, Australia. This is achieved by matching raingage ...
Daniel Rosenfeld; David B. Wolff; Eyal Amitai
Modular analysis and modelling of risk scenarios with dependencies
The risk analysis of critical infrastructures such as the electric power supply or telecommunications is complicated by the fact that such infrastructures are mutually dependent. We propose a modular approach to the modelling and analysis of risk scenarios ... Keywords: Critical infrastructure, Dependency, Modular risk analysis, Risk scenario, Threat modelling
Gyrd Br�ndeland; Atle Refsdal; Ketil St�len
Scenarios for a Clean Energy Future Industry 5.1
In this chapter we present scenarios for future industrial energy use, based on different assumptions for U.S. energy policies. We start with a reference scenario which is derived from the AEO99 (U.S. DOE, EIA, 1998a of primary energy, accounting for 37% of the primary energy consumed in the U.S. that year. The industrial
Statistical Analysis of Traffic Measurements in a Disaster Area Scenario
challenges of information sharing in OOH [Out-of-Hospital] disaster response."([1]) Performance evaluationStatistical Analysis of Traffic Measurements in a Disaster Area Scenario Considering Heavy Load-- Catastrophes cause an area of destruction including destroyed infrastructure. These disaster area scenarios
Frank, Matthias
Future technology oriented scenarios on e-accessibility
This paper presents a set of future scenarios as a part of our study which explores and analyzes the relationships between the emerging ICT landscape in the European societal and economic context, and the development and provision of e-Accessibility, ... Keywords: eaccessibility, future, scenario
Christos Kouroupetroglou; Adamantios Koumpis; Dimitris Papageorgiou
Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS) | Open Energy Information
(Redirected from CIFF-Chile-Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS)) (Redirected from CIFF-Chile-Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS)) Jump to: navigation, search Logo: Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS) Name Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS) Agency/Company /Organization The Children's Investment Fund Foundation, SouthSouthNorth, University of Cape Town-Energy Research Centre, Danish Government Sector Climate, Energy Topics Baseline projection, Low emission development planning, -LEDS, -NAMA, Pathways analysis Website http://www.mapsprogramme.org Program Start 2010 Program End 2013 Country Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Peru, South Africa South America, South America, South America, South America, South America, Southern Africa References Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS)[1]
Argentina-Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS) | Open Energy
Argentina-Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS) Argentina-Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS) Jump to: navigation, search Logo: Argentina-Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS) Name Argentina-Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS) Agency/Company /Organization The Children's Investment Fund Foundation, SouthSouthNorth, University of Cape Town-Energy Research Centre, Danish Government Sector Climate, Energy Topics Baseline projection, Low emission development planning, -LEDS, -NAMA, Pathways analysis Website http://www.mapsprogramme.org Program Start 2010 Program End 2013 Country Argentina South America References Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS)[1] Contents 1 Overview 2 MAPS Processes and Outcomes 2.1 Chile 2.2 Colombia 2.3 Peru 2.4 Brazil 2.5 Resources 2.5.1 Mitigation Action Country Studies
Colombia-Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS) | Open Energy
Colombia-Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS) Colombia-Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS) Jump to: navigation, search Logo: Colombia-Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS) Name Colombia-Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS) Agency/Company /Organization The Children's Investment Fund Foundation, SouthSouthNorth, University of Cape Town-Energy Research Centre, Danish Government Sector Climate, Energy Topics Baseline projection, Low emission development planning, -LEDS, -NAMA, Pathways analysis Website http://www.mapsprogramme.org Program Start 2010 Program End 2013 Country Colombia South America References Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS)[1] Contents 1 Overview 2 MAPS Processes and Outcomes 2.1 Chile 2.2 Colombia 2.3 Peru 2.4 Brazil 2.5 Resources 2.5.1 Mitigation Action Country Studies
Brazil-Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS) | Open Energy
Brazil-Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS) Brazil-Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS) Jump to: navigation, search Logo: Brazil-Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS) Name Brazil-Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS) Agency/Company /Organization The Children's Investment Fund Foundation, SouthSouthNorth, University of Cape Town-Energy Research Centre, Danish Government Sector Climate, Energy Topics Baseline projection, Low emission development planning, -LEDS, -NAMA, Pathways analysis Website http://www.mapsprogramme.org Program Start 2010 Program End 2013 Country Brazil South America References Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS)[1] Contents 1 Overview 2 MAPS Processes and Outcomes 2.1 Chile 2.2 Colombia 2.3 Peru 2.4 Brazil 2.5 Resources 2.5.1 Mitigation Action Country Studies
Summary of student scenarios: 2020 Vision project, fiscal year 1997
The Strategic Issues Thinking: 2020 Vision project introduces students and teaches to national security issues through the techniques of scenario building, and engages them in an interactive process of creating scenarios relevant to the Department of Energy, Defense Programs (DOE/DP). Starting with the world as it is today, teams of students develop a series of scenarios on international developments over the next 25 years under various circumstances. This report identifies recurrent themes in the student`s scenarios, lists creative ways the students presented their scenarios, compares and contrasts the program`s FY97 results with FY96 results, identifies the benefits of the program, and offers a glimpse of Sandia`s future plans for the 2020 Vision project.
Gordon, K.W.; Munoz, A.; Scott, K.P.; Rinne, R.
Failure probabilities of steam generator tubes. Annual report
BNL's efforts focused on the following specific items; the probabilities of failure for perfect steam generator tubes, the probabilities of failure for steam generator tubes containing long axisymmetrically thinned sections, and the probabilities of failure for steam generator tubes containing finite length (relatively short) axisymmetric wastages. (auth)
Reich, M.
Sets of desirable gambles: Conditioning, representation, and precise probabilities
The theory of sets of desirable gambles is a very general model which covers most of the existing theories for imprecise probability as special cases; it has a clear and simple axiomatic justification; and mathematical definitions are natural and intuitive. ... Keywords: Desirable gambles, Regular extension, Sets of probability measures, Zero probabilities
In�S Couso; Seraf�N Moral
Measurement Based Scenario Analysis of Short-Range Distribution System Planning
year to set up a distributed are: no component on outage, one substation transformer on generation (DG obtained through derived from the historical measurement data and incorporated a worst-case analysis system at demonstrated when investigating the system in a 5-year lead Støvring in Denmark. Simulation
Bak-Jensen, Birgitte
Low Carbon Society Scenarios Towards 2050 | Open Energy Information
Low Carbon Society Scenarios Towards 2050 Low Carbon Society Scenarios Towards 2050 Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Low Carbon Society Scenarios Towards 2050 Agency/Company /Organization: National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES) Sector: Energy Focus Area: Renewable Energy, Non-renewable Energy, Economic Development, Energy Efficiency, People and Policy, Solar Phase: Create a Vision, Determine Baseline, Evaluate Options, Develop Goals Topics: Adaptation, Baseline projection, GHG inventory, Implementation, Low emission development planning, -LEDS, Pathways analysis, Policies/deployment programs, Resource assessment Resource Type: Guide/manual, Lessons learned/best practices, Publications, Training materials Website: 2050.nies.go.jp/report.html Cost: Free
Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicle Penetration Scenarios
This report examines the economic drivers, technology constraints, and market potential for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) in the U.S. A PHEV is a hybrid vehicle with batteries that can be recharged by connecting to the grid and an internal combustion engine that can be activated when batteries need recharging. The report presents and examines a series of PHEV market penetration scenarios. Based on input received from technical experts and industry representative contacted for this report and data obtained through a literature review, annual market penetration rates for PHEVs are presented from 2013 through 2045 for three scenarios. Each scenario is examined and implications for PHEV development are explored.
Balducci, Patrick J.
Hidden Higgs Scenarios: new constraints and prospects at the LHC
We review the motivation for hidden Higgs scenarios and discuss the light CP odd Higgs scenario in the NMSSM as an example. We summarize experimental constraints including recent limits from BaBar and Aleph. The main part of the talk is the discussion of dominant decay modes of the standard model like Higgs boson, and related decay modes of the charged Higgs and heavy CP even Higgs bosons, in these scenarios with the focus on signatures and prospects for the LHC. Examples include the direct production of a light CP odd Higgs boson, and a light charged Higgs boson in top quark decays.
Radovan Dermisek
Eastern Gulf Coastal Plain: a scenario for geothermal energy development
A scenario for the development of potential geothermal resources in the Eastern Gulf Coastal Plain states of Mississippi, Alabama and Florida is explained and discussed. A description of the resources and the nature of the potential applications and energy market in this region are given. A ranking of the resources as to their energy content, potential market, etc., is described, and the assumptions and strategy used to generate the scenario are discussed. A more complete report on the detailed aspects involved in the preparation of the development scenario will be issued in the near future.
Mapping Climate Change Vulnerability and Impact Scenarios - A Guidebook for
Mapping Climate Change Vulnerability and Impact Scenarios - A Guidebook for Mapping Climate Change Vulnerability and Impact Scenarios - A Guidebook for Sub-national Planners Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary Name: Mapping Climate Change Vulnerability and Impact Scenarios - A Guidebook for Sub-national Planners Agency/Company /Organization: United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) Resource Type: Guide/manual Website: www.beta.undp.org/content/dam/aplaws/publication/en/publications/envir Language: English Mapping Climate Change Vulnerability and Impact Scenarios - A Guidebook for Sub-national Planners Screenshot This guidebook assists planners working at the sub-national levels to identify and map the nature of current and future vulnerability to long-term climate change so that appropriate policies and intervention can
Chile-Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS) | Open Energy
Page Page Edit with form History Facebook icon Twitter icon » Chile-Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS) Jump to: navigation, search Logo: Chile-Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS) Name Chile-Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS) Agency/Company /Organization The Children's Investment Fund Foundation, SouthSouthNorth, University of Cape Town-Energy Research Centre, Danish Government Sector Climate, Energy Topics Baseline projection, Low emission development planning, -LEDS, -NAMA, Pathways analysis Website http://www.mapsprogramme.org Program Start 2010 Program End 2013 Country Chile South America References Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS)[1] Contents 1 Overview 2 MAPS Processes and Outcomes 2.1 Chile 2.2 Colombia 2.3 Peru
A scenario generation tool for DDF simulation testbeds
An interactive tool has been developed for visualizing and creating scaled battlefield based scenarios for use in a simulation testbed to develop and test distributed data fusion and ad-hoc networking algorithms. This paper discuses the design requirements ...
G. Srimathveeravalli; N. Subramanian; T. Kesavadas
Learning from vacuously satisfiable scenario-based specifications
Scenarios and use cases are popular means for supporting requirements elicitation and elaboration. They provide examples of how the system-to-be and its environment can interact. However, such descriptions, when large, are cumbersome to reason about, ...
Dalal Alrajeh; Jeff Kramer; Alessandra Russo; Sebastian Uchitel
A Method for Evaluating Fire after Earthquake Scenarios for Single...
DOENNSA LANS Company Sensitive - unauthorized release or dissemination prohibited U N C L A S S I F I E D A Method for Evaluating Fire After Earthquake Scenarios for Single...
Energy Scenarios for East Asia: 2005-2025
We describe several scenarios for economic development and energy use in East Asia based on the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, a computable general equilibrium model of the world economy. Historic ...
Paltsev, Sergey
A New Global Set of Downscaled Temperature Scenarios
A new set of empirical�statistical downscaled seasonal mean temperature scenarios is presented for locations spread across all continents. These results are based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) simulations, the ...
Generating Scenarios of Local Surface Temperature Using Time Series Methods
A method for creating scenarios of time series of monthly mean surface temperature at a specific site is developed. It is postulated that surface temperature can be specified as a linear combination of regional and local temperature components, ...
Robert S. Chen; Peter J. Robinson
Climate Change Scenarios for the U.S. National Assessment
In support of the U.S. National Assessment of the Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change, climate scenarios were prepared to serve as the basis for evaluating the vulnerability of environmental and societal systems to changes ...
Michael C. Maccracken; Eric J. Barron; David R. Easterling; Benjamin S. Felzer; Thomas R. Karl
The U.S. Department of Energy sponsored a 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure Meeting in Washington, DC, on August 9-10, 2006. The...
The U.S. Department of Energy sponsored a 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure Meeting in Washington, DC, on January 31, 2007. This third...
Late Pleistocene Ice Age Scenarios Based on Observational Evidence
Ice age scenarios for the last glacial-interglacial cycle, based on observations of Boyle and Keigwin concerning the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation and of Barnola et al. concerning atmospheric C02 variations derived from the Vostok ice ...
G. DeBlonde; W. R. Peltier
Uniqueness of Bohmian Mechanics, and Solutions From Probability Conservation
We show that one-dimensional Bohmian mechanics is unique, in that, the Bohm trajectories are the only solutions that conserve total left (or right) probability. In Brandt et al., Phys. Lett. A, 249 (1998) 265--270, they define quantile motion--unique trajectories are solved by assuming that the total probability on each side of the particle is conserved. They argue that the quantile trajectories are identical to the Bohm trajectories. Their argument, however, fails to notice the gauge freedom in the definition of the quantum probability current. Our paper sidesteps this under-determinedness of the probability current. The one-dimensional probability conservation can be used for higher dimensional problems if the wave function is separable. Several examples are given using total left probability conservation, most notably, the two-slit experiment.
Timothy M. Coffey; Robert E. Wyatt; Wm. C. Schieve
MAUT approach for selecting a proper decommissioning scenario
When dismantling scenarios are selected, not only the quantitatively calculated results but also the qualitatively estimated results should be considered with a logical and systematic process. In this case, the MAUT (Multi-Attribute Utility Theory) is widely used for the quantification of subjective judgments in various fields of a decision making. This study focuses on the introduction and application of the MAUT method for the selection of decommissioning scenarios. To evaluate decommissioning scenarios, nine evaluation attributes are considered. These attributes are: the primary cost, the peripheral cost, the waste treatment cost, the worker's exposure, the worker's safety, the work difficulty, the originality of the dismantling technologies, their contributions to other industries, public relations for, and an understanding of the public. The weighting values of the attributes were determined by using the AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) method and their utility functions are produced from several questionnaires for the decision makers. As an implementation, this method was applied to evaluate two scenarios, the plasma arc cutting scenario and the nibbler cutting scenario for decommissioning the thermal column in KRR- 1 (Korea Research Reactor-1). As a result, this method has many merits even although it is difficult to produce the utility function of each attribute. However, once they are setup it is easy to measure the alternatives' values and it can be applied regardless of the number of alternatives. (authors)
Kim, S.K.; Park, K.W.; Lee, H.S.; Jung, C.H. [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Yuseong-Gu, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)
A formal framework for scenario development in support of environmental decision-making
Scenarios are possible future states of the world that represent alternative plausible conditions under different assumptions. Often, scenarios are developed in a context relevant to stakeholders involved in their applications since the evaluation of ... Keywords: Alternative futures, Decision-making, Scenario analysis, Scenario planning, Scenarios, Uncertainty
Mohammed Mahmoud; Yuqiong Liu; Holly Hartmann; Steven Stewart; Thorsten Wagener; Darius Semmens; Robert Stewart; Hoshin Gupta; Damian Dominguez; Francina Dominguez; David Hulse; Rebecca Letcher; Brenda Rashleigh; Court Smith; Roger Street; Jenifer Ticehurst; Mark Twery; Hedwig van Delden; Ruth Waldick; Denis White; Larry Winter
Probability based load factors for design of concrete containment structures
This paper describes a procedure for developing probability-based load combinations for the design of concrete containments. The proposed criteria are in a load and resistance factor design (LRFD) format. The load factors and resistance factors are derived for use in limit states design and are based on a target limit state probability. In this paper, the load factors for accident pressure and safe shutdown earthquake are derived for three target limit state probabilities. Other load factors are recommended on the basis of prior experience with probability-based design criteria for ordinary building construction. 6 refs.
Hwang, H.; Kagami, S.; Reich, M.; Ellingwood, B.; Shinozuka, M.
Probability of SLA Violation for Semi-Markov Availability.
??The purpose of this thesis is to investigate availability distributions and the probability of Service Level Agreement (SLA) violation for telecommunication services requiring high availability,� (more)
Gupta, Vivek
Search via Probability Algorithm for Single-Objective Optimization ...
suggest a new approach to find optimal solutions, the Search via Probability (SP) algorithm. ... searching an optimal solution the first time for each performance.
Probability and complex quantum trajectories: Finding the missing links
It is shown that a normalisable probability density can be defined for the entire complex plane in the modified de Broglie-Bohm quantum mechanics, which gives complex quantum trajectories. This work is in continuation of a previous one that defined a conserved probability for most of the regions in the complex space in terms of a trajectory integral, indicating a dynamical origin of quantum probability. There it was also shown that the quantum trajectories obtained are the same characteristic curves that propagate information about the conserved probability density. Though the probability density we now adopt for those regions left out in the previous work is not conserved locally, the net source of probability for such regions is seen to be zero in the example considered, allowing to make the total probability conserved. The new combined probability density agrees with the Born's probability everywhere on the real line, as required. A major fall out of the present scheme is that it explains why in the classical limit the imaginary parts of trajectories are not observed even indirectly and particles are confined close to the real line.
John, Moncy V., E-mail: firstname.lastname@example.com [Department of Physics, St. Thomas College, Kozhencherry, Kerala 689641 (India)
New probability table treatment in MCNP for unresolved resonances
An upgrade for MCNP has been implemented to sample the neutron cross sections in the unresolved resonance range using probability tables. These probability tables are generated with the cross section processor code NJOY, by using the evaluated statistical information about the resonances to calculate cumulative probability distribution functions for the microscopic total cross section. The elastic, fission, and radiative capture cross sections are also tabulated as the average values of each of these partials conditional upon the value of the total. This paper summarizes how the probability tables are utilized in this MCNP upgrade and compares this treatment with the approximate smooth treatment for some example problems.
Carter, L.L. [Carter M.C. Analysis, Richland, WA (United States); Little, R.C.; Hendricks, J.S.; MacFarlane, R.E. [Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States)
Derivation of the coefficient squared probability law in quantum mechanics
If one assumes there is probability of perception in quantum mechanics, then unitarity dictates that it must have the coefficient squared form, in agreement with experiment.
Casey Blood
The probability of containment failure by direct containment heating in Zion
This report is the first step in the resolution of the Direct Containment Heating (DCH) issue for the Zion Nuclear Power Plant using the Risk Oriented Accident Analysis Methodology (ROAAM). This report includes the definition of a probabilistic framework that decomposes the DCH problem into three probability density functions that reflect the most uncertain initial conditions (UO{sub 2} mass, zirconium oxidation fraction, and steel mass). Uncertainties in the initial conditions are significant, but our quantification approach is based on establishing reasonable bounds that are not unnecessarily conservative. To this end, we also make use of the ROAAM ideas of enveloping scenarios and ``splintering.`` Two causal relations (CRs) are used in this framework: CR1 is a model that calculates the peak pressure in the containment as a function of the initial conditions, and CR2 is a model that returns the frequency of containment failure as a function of pressure within the containment. Uncertainty in CR1 is accounted for by the use of two independently developed phenomenological models, the Convection Limited Containment Heating (CLCH) model and the Two-Cell Equilibrium (TCE) model, and by probabilistically distributing the key parameter in both, which is the ratio of the melt entrainment time to the system blowdown time constant. The two phenomenological models have been compared with an extensive database including recent integral simulations at two different physical scales. The containment load distributions do not intersect the containment strength (fragility) curve in any significant way, resulting in containment failure probabilities less than 10{sup {minus}3} for all scenarios considered. Sensitivity analyses did not show any areas of large sensitivity.
Pilch, M.M. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Yan, H.; Theofanous, T.G. [California Univ., Santa Barbara, CA (United States)
Multi-path transportation futures study : vehicle characterization and scenario analyses.
Projecting the future role of advanced drivetrains and fuels in the light vehicle market is inherently difficult, given the uncertainty (and likely volatility) of future oil prices, inadequate understanding of likely consumer response to new technologies, the relative infancy of several important new technologies with inevitable future changes in their performance and costs, and the importance - and uncertainty - of future government marketplace interventions (e.g., new regulatory standards or vehicle purchase incentives). This Multi-Path Transportation Futures (MP) Study has attempted to improve our understanding of this future role by examining several scenarios of vehicle costs, fuel prices, government subsidies, and other key factors. These are projections, not forecasts, in that they try to answer a series of 'what if' questions without assigning probabilities to most of the basic assumptions.
Plotkin, S. E.; Singh, M. K.; Energy Systems; TA Engineering; ORNL
Evaluating Potential for Large Releases from CO2 StorageReservoirs: Analogs, Scenarios, and Modeling Needs
While the purpose of geologic storage of CO{sub 2} in deep saline formations is to trap greenhouse gases underground, the potential exists for CO{sub 2} to escape from the target reservoir, migrate upward along permeable pathways, and discharge at the land surface. Such discharge is not necessarily a serious concern, as CO{sub 2} is a naturally abundant and relatively benign gas in low concentrations. However, there is a potential risk to health, safety and environment (HSE) in the event that large localized fluxes of CO{sub 2} were to occur at the land surface, especially where CO{sub 2} could accumulate. In this paper, we develop possible scenarios for large CO{sub 2} fluxes based on the analysis of natural analogues, where large releases of gas have been observed. We are particularly interested in scenarios which could generate sudden, possibly self-enhancing, or even eruptive release events. The probability for such events may be low, but the circumstances under which they might occur and potential consequences need to be evaluated in order to design appropriate site selection and risk management strategies. Numerical modeling of hypothetical test cases is needed to determine critical conditions for such events, to evaluate whether such conditions may be possible at designated storage sites, and, if applicable, to evaluate the potential HSE impacts of such events and design appropriate mitigation strategies.
Birkholzer, Jens; Pruess, Karsten; Lewicki, Jennifer; Tsang,Chin-Fu; Karimjee, Anhar
Safety evaluation of MHTGR licensing basis accident scenarios
The safety potential of the Modular High-Temperature Gas Reactor (MHTGR) was evaluated, based on the Preliminary Safety Information Document (PSID), as submitted by the US Department of Energy to the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission. The relevant reactor safety codes were extended for this purpose and applied to this new reactor concept, searching primarily for potential accident scenarios that might lead to fuel failures due to excessive core temperatures and/or to vessel damage, due to excessive vessel temperatures. The design basis accident scenario leading to the highest vessel temperatures is the depressurized core heatup scenario without any forced cooling and with decay heat rejection to the passive Reactor Cavity Cooling System (RCCS). This scenario was evaluated, including numerous parametric variations of input parameters, like material properties and decay heat. It was found that significant safety margins exist, but that high confidence levels in the core effective thermal conductivity, the reactor vessel and RCCS thermal emissivities and the decay heat function are required to maintain this safety margin. Severe accident extensions of this depressurized core heatup scenario included the cases of complete RCCS failure, cases of massive air ingress, core heatup without scram and cases of degraded RCCS performance due to absorbing gases in the reactor cavity. Except for no-scram scenarios extending beyond 100 hr, the fuel never reached the limiting temperature of 1600/degree/C, below which measurable fuel failures are not expected. In some of the scenarios, excessive vessel and concrete temperatures could lead to investment losses but are not expected to lead to any source term beyond that from the circulating inventory. 19 refs., 56 figs., 11 tabs.
Kroeger, P.G.
On distorted probabilities and m-separable fuzzy measures
Fuzzy measures are used in conjunction with fuzzy integrals for aggregation. Their role in the aggregation is to permit the user to express the importance of the information sources (either criteria or experts). Due to the fact that fuzzy measures are ... Keywords: Distorted probabilities, Fuzzy measures, m-Dimensional distorted probabilities, m-Symmetric fuzzy measures
Yasuo Narukawa; Vicen� Torra
A new characterization of probabilities in Bayesian networks
We characterize probabilities in Bayesian networks in terms of algebraic expressions called quasi-probabilities. These are arrived at by casting Bayesian networks as noisy AND-OR-NOT networks, and viewing the subnetworks that lead to a node as arguments ...
Lenhart K. Schubert
A new method for estimating extreme rainfall probabilities
As part of an EPRI-funded research program, the Yankee Atomic Electric Company developed a new method for estimating probabilities of extreme rainfall. It can be used, along with other techniques, to improve the estimation of probable maximum precipitation values for specific basins or regions.
Harper, G.A.; O'Hara, T.F. (Yankee Atomic Electric Company, Bolton, MA (United States)); Morris, D.I. (Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto, CA (United States))
Identification of probable real words: an entropy-based approach
This paper proposes a method for identifying probable real words among out-of-vocabulary (OOV) words in text. The identification of real words is done based on entropy of probability of character trigrams as well as the morphological rules of English. ...
Youngja Park
Free Processes via Matrix Theory Concentration week on free Probability
Free Processes via Matrix Theory Concentration week on free Probability Texas A&M, July 9-13. Nizar Demni Paris VI University July 10, 2007 Nizar Demni Paris VI University Free Processes via Matrix Theory Concentration week on free Pr #12;Definitions Non commutative probability space : Unital Algebra A + linear
A New Method for Estimating Tropical Cyclone Wind Speed Probabilities
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) Hurricane Probability Program (HPP) was implemented in 1983 to estimate the probability that the center of a tropical cyclone would pass within 60 n mi of a set of specified points out to 72 h. Other than ...
Mark DeMaria; John A. Knaff; Richard Knabb; Chris Lauer; Charles R. Sampson; Robert T. DeMaria
Integrated Analysis of Market Transformation Scenarios with HyTrans
This report presents alternative visions of the transition of light-duty vehicle transportation in the United States from petroleum to hydrogen power. It is a supporting document to the U.S. Department of Energy's Summary Report, "Analysis of the Transition to a Hydrogen Economy and the Potential Hydrogen Infrastructure Requirements" (U.S. DOE, 2007). Three alternative early transition scenarios were analyzed using a market simulation model called HyTrans. The HyTrans model simultaneously represents the behavior of fuel suppliers, vehicle manufacturers and consumers, explicitly recognizing the importance of fuel availability and the diversity of vehicle choices to consumers, and dependence of fuel supply on the existence of market demand. Competitive market outcomes are simulated by means of non-linear optimization of social surplus through the year 2050. The three scenarios specify different rates and geographical distributions of market penetration for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles from 2012 through 2025. Scenario 1 leads to 2 million vehicles on U.S. roads by 2025, while Scenarios 2 and 3 result in 5 million and 10 million FCVs in use by 2025, respectively. The HyTrans model "costs out" the transition scenarios and alternative policies for achieving them. It then tests whether the scenarios, together with the achievement of the DOE's technology goals for fuel cell vehicles and hydrogen infrastructure technologies could lead to a sustainable transition to hydrogen powered transportation. Given the achievement of DOE's ambitious technology goals, all three scenarios appear to lead to a sustainable transition to hydrogen. In the absence of early transition deployment effort, no transition is likely to begin before 2045. The cumulative costs of the transition scenarios to the government range from $8 billion to $45 billion, depending on the scenario, the policies adopted and the degree of cost-sharing with industry. In the absence of carbon constraining policies, the transition to hydrogen achieves about the same reduction in CO2 emissions as a transition to advanced gasoline-electric hybrid vehicles. With significant carbon policy, drastic reductions in well-to-wheel CO2 emissions are possible. Energy transition modeling is a newly evolving field and much remains to be done to improve the utility of models like HyTrans.
Greene, David L [ORNL; Leiby, Paul Newsome [ORNL; Bowman, David Charles [ORNL
South Africa Long Term Mitigation Scenarios | Open Energy Information
South Africa Long Term Mitigation Scenarios South Africa Long Term Mitigation Scenarios Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: South Africa Long Term Mitigation Scenarios Agency/Company /Organization: South Africa Department of Environment Affairs and Tourism Sector: Energy, Land Topics: Background analysis, Low emission development planning Resource Type: Case studies/examples Website: www.erc.uct.ac.za/Research/publications/07Scenario_team-LTMS_Scenarios Country: South Africa Southern Africa Coordinates: -30.559482°, 22.937506° Loading map... {"minzoom":false,"mappingservice":"googlemaps3","type":"ROADMAP","zoom":14,"types":["ROADMAP","SATELLITE","HYBRID","TERRAIN"],"geoservice":"google","maxzoom":false,"width":"600px","height":"350px","centre":false,"title":"","label":"","icon":"","visitedicon":"","lines":[],"polygons":[],"circles":[],"rectangles":[],"copycoords":false,"static":false,"wmsoverlay":"","layers":[],"controls":["pan","zoom","type","scale","streetview"],"zoomstyle":"DEFAULT","typestyle":"DEFAULT","autoinfowindows":false,"kml":[],"gkml":[],"fusiontables":[],"resizable":false,"tilt":0,"kmlrezoom":false,"poi":true,"imageoverlays":[],"markercluster":false,"searchmarkers":"","locations":[{"text":"","title":"","link":null,"lat":-30.559482,"lon":22.937506,"alt":0,"address":"","icon":"","group":"","inlineLabel":"","visitedicon":""}]}
Economically consistent long-term scenarios for air pollutant emissions
Pollutant emissions such as aerosols and tropospheric ozone precursors substantially influence climate. While future century-scale scenarios for these emissions have become more realistic through the inclusion of emission controls, they still potentially lack consistency between surface pollutant concentrations and regional levels of affluence. We demonstrate a methodology combining use of an integrated assessment model and a three-dimensional atmospheric chemical transport model, whereby a reference scenario is constructed by requiring consistent surface pollutant levels as a function of regional income over the 21st century. By adjusting air pollutant emission control parameters, we improve agreement between modeled PM2.5 and economic income among world regions through time; agreement for ozone is also improved but is more difficult to achieve because of the strong influence of upwind world regions. The scenario examined here was used as the basis for one of the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. This analysis methodology could also be used to examine the consistency of other pollutant emission scenarios.
Smith, Steven J.; West, Jason; Kyle, G. Page
Southern California Edison's San Onofre Nuclear ... and Progress's handling of the Crystal River repairs became an issue in the company's recent merger with ...
Scenario HELP Index Summary Scenario Internet Links Student Pages In third grade in St. Charles, Illinois the curriculum is integrated around the theme of community. The children...
Enduse Global Emissions Mitigation Scenarios (EGEMS): A New Generation of Energy Efficiency Policy Planning Models
of Carbon Dioxide Emissions on GNP Growth: Interpretation ofMcNeil et al Enduse Global Emissions Mitigation Scenarios (Keywords Greenhouse gas emissions, emissions scenarios,
McNeil, Michael A.
2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and...
Suggested Improvement - - Transition scenario should include case studies Transition scenario should include case studies of local economies of local economies Include...
Transition Strategies: Government Options and Market Penetration Scenarios
Transition Strategies Transition Strategies Possible Range of Government Support Options * Hydrogen Fuel Initiative - 2015 commercialization decision * 2015 commercialization decision - 1000s of cars by 2015, and 10,000s of cars by 2018 * 2015 commercialization decision, 100,000s of cars by 2018 * 2010 commercialization decision, 10,000s of cars by 2015 and 100,000s of cars by 2018 * 2010 commercialization decision, 100,000s of cars by 2016 and millions by 2021. These scenarios are provided for transition analyses as recommended by the National Research Council to evaluate the transition phase and do not represent any specific policy recommendation. 3 Market Penetration Scenarios The following scenarios represent the estimated penetration of hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles (HFCV) given different government incentives:
Scenario Modelling: A Holistic Environmental and Energy Management
Scenario Modelling: A Holistic Environmental and Energy Management Scenario Modelling: A Holistic Environmental and Energy Management Technique for Building Managers Speaker(s): James O'Donnell Date: September 30, 2010 - 12:00pm Location: 90-3122 Seminar Host/Point of Contact: Vladimir Bazjanac At the operational level of organisations, building managers most commonly evaluate environmental and energy performance. They originate from a variety of technical and non-technical backgrounds with corresponding experiences, knowledge and skill sets. The profile of building managers as established in this work accounts for this diverse variation. Building performance data and information that is typically available for the established profile of building managers is insufficient for optimum operation. This presentaion presents the scenario modelling technique
Security Implications of Typical Grid Computing Usage Scenarios
A Computational Grid is a collection of heterogeneous computers and resources spread across multiple administrative domains with the intent of providing users uniform access to these resources. There are many ways to access the resources of a Computational Grid, each with unique security requirements and implications for both the resource user and the resource provider. A comprehensive set of Grid usage scenarios are presented and analyzed with regard to security requirements such as authentication, authorization, integrity, and confidentiality. The main value of these scenarios and the associated security discussions are to provide a library of situations against which an application designer can match, thereby facilitating security-aware application use and development from the initial stages of the application design and invocation. A broader goal of these scenarios are to increase the awareness of security issues in Grid Computing.
Humphrey, Marty; Thompson, Mary R.
Environmental assessment of spatial plan policies through land use scenarios
This paper presents a method based on scenario analysis to compare the environmental effects of different spatial plan policies in a range of possible futures. The study aimed at contributing to overcome two limitations encountered in Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) for spatial planning: poor exploration of how the future might unfold, and poor consideration of alternative plan policies. Scenarios were developed through what-if functions and spatial modeling in a Geographical Information System (GIS), and consisted in maps that represent future land uses under different assumptions on key driving forces. The use of land use scenarios provided a representation of how the different policies will look like on the ground. This allowed gaining a better understanding of the policies' implications on the environment, which could be measured through a set of indicators. The research undertook a case-study approach by developing and assessing land use scenarios for the future growth of Caia, a strategically-located and fast-developing town in rural Mozambique. The effects of alternative spatial plan policies were assessed against a set of environmental performance indicators, including deforestation, loss of agricultural land, encroachment of flood-prone areas and wetlands and access to water sources. In this way, critical environmental effects related to the implementation of each policy were identified and discussed, suggesting possible strategies to address them. - Graphical abstract: Display Omitted Research Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The method contributes to two critical issues in SEA: exploration of the future and consideration of alternatives. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Future scenarios are used to test the environmental performance of different spatial plan policies in uncertainty conditions. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Spatially-explicit land use scenarios provide a representation of how different policies will look like on the ground.
Geneletti, Davide, E-mail: firstname.lastname@example.com
Time parallelization of advanced operation scenario simulations of ITER plasma
This work demonstrates that simulations of advanced burning plasma operation scenarios can be successfully parallelized in time using the parareal algorithm. CORSICA - an advanced operation scenario code for tokamak plasmas is used as a test case. This is a unique application since the parareal algorithm has so far been applied to relatively much simpler systems except for the case of turbulence. In the present application, a computational gain of an order of magnitude has been achieved which is extremely promising. A successful implementation of the Parareal algorithm to codes like CORSICA ushers in the possibility of time efficient simulations of ITER plasmas.
Samaddar, D. [ITER Organization, Saint Paul Lez Durance, France; Casper, T. A. [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL); Kim, S. H. [ITER Organization, Saint Paul Lez Durance, France; Berry, Lee A [ORNL; Elwasif, Wael R [ORNL; Batchelor, Donald B [ORNL; Houlberg, Wayne A [ORNL
Probability of Failure for Low Alloy Cr-Mo Seam Welded Piping in Fossil Power Plants
Managing longitudinal seam welded piping in fossil fueled power plants is an expensive challenge necessitated by the failures of a few hot reheat and main steam lines. The traditional approach involves inspections during outages that require scaffold erection, insulation removal, surface preparation, and nondestructive evaluation NDE inspection. This report strives to provide utilities with another tool to manage high energy piping systems. It investigates normal distribution of material properties, alon...
Evaluation of potential severe accidents during low power and shutdown operations at Grand Gulf, Unit 1. Volume 5: Analysis of core damage frequency from seismic events for plant operational state 5 during a refueling outage
In 1989 the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) initiated an extensive program to examine carefully the potential risks during low-power and shutdown operations. The program included two parallel projects, one at Sandia National Laboratories studying a boiling water reactor (Grand Gulf), and the other at Brookhaven National Laboratory studying a pressurized water reactor (Surry Unit 1). Both the Sandia and Brookhaven projects have examined only accidents initiated by internal plant faults---so-called ``internal initiators.`` This project, which has explored the likelihood of seismic-initiated core damage accidents during refueling outage conditions, is complementary to the internal-initiator analyses at Brookhaven and Sandia. This report covers the seismic analysis at Grand Gulf. All of the many systems modeling assumptions, component non-seismic failure rates, and human effort rates that were used in the internal-initiator study at Grand Gulf have been adopted here, so that the results of the study can be as comparable as possible. Both the Sandia study and this study examine only one shutdown plant operating state (POS) at Grand Gulf, namely POS 5 representing cold shutdown during a refueling outage. This analysis has been limited to work analogous to a level-1 seismic PRA, in which estimates have been developed for the core-damage frequency from seismic events during POS 5. The results of the analysis are that the core-damage frequency for earthquake-initiated accidents during refueling outages in POS 5 is found to be quite low in absolute terms, less than 10{sup {minus}7}/year.
Budnitz, R.J. [Future Resources Associates, Inc., Berkeley, CA (United States); Davis, P.R. [PRD Consulting (United States); Ravindra, M.K.; Tong, W.H. [EQE International, Inc., Irvine, CA (United States)
Evaluation of potential severe accidents during low power and shutdown operations at Grand Gulf, Unit 1. Analysis of core damage frequency from internal events for plant operational state 5 during a refueling outage. Internal events appendices K to M
This report provides supporting documentation for various tasks associated with the performance of the probabilistic risk assessment for Plant Operational State 5 (approximately Cold Shutdown as defined by Grand Gulf Technical Specifications) during a refueling outage at Grand Gulf, Unit 1 as documented in Volume 2, Part 1 of NUREG/CR-6143. The report contains the following appendices: K - HEP Locator Files; L - Supporting Information for the Plant Damage State Analysis; M - Summary of Results from the Coarse Screening Analysis - Phase 1A.
Forester, J.; Yakle, J.; Walsh, B. [Science Applications International Corp., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Darby, J. [Science and Engineering Associates, Inc., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Whitehead, D.; Staple, B.; Brown, T. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States)
The Discrete Brier and Ranked Probability Skill Scores
The Brier skill score (BSS) and the ranked probability skill score (RPSS) are widely used measures to describe the quality of categorical probabilistic forecasts. They quantify the extent to which a forecast strategy improves predictions with ...
Andreas P. Weigel; Mark A. Liniger; Christof Appenzeller
A Probability Model for Verifying Deterministic Forecasts of Extreme Events
This article proposes a method for verifying deterministic forecasts of rare, extreme events defined by exceedance above a high threshold. A probability model for the joint distribution of forecasts and observations, and based on extreme-value ...
Christopher A. T. Ferro
Soil Moisture Content: Statistical Estimation of Its Probability Distribution
A stochastic model for the estimation of soil moisture distribution is derived. The series of daily precipitation amounts is described as a chain-dependent process and the surface water balance equation is simplified so that the probability ...
T. Farag�
Some Remarks on the Reliability of Categorical Probability Forecasts
Studies on forecast evaluation often rely on estimating limiting observed frequencies conditioned on specific forecast probabilities (the reliability diagram or calibration function). Obviously, statistical estimates of the calibration function ...
Jochen Br�cker
Climatological Hurricane Landfall Probability for the United States
This study examines the historical record of hurricanes and tropical storms in the Atlantic Ocean basin to determine the eventual landfall probability for the U.S. coastline based on the complete tracks of those storms. The current method for ...
Brian Brettschneider
Success probabilities for universal unambiguous discriminators between unknown pure states
A universal programmable discriminator can perform the discrimination between two unknown states, and the optimal solution can be approached via the discrimination between the two averages over the uniformly distributed unknown input pure states, which has been widely discussed in previous works. In this paper, we consider the success probabilities of the optimal universal programmable unambiguous discriminators when applied to the pure input states. More precisely, the analytic results of the success probabilities are derived with the expressions of the optimal measurement operators for the universal discriminators and we find that the success probabilities have nothing to do with the dimension d while the amounts of the copies in the two program registers are equal. The success probability of programmable unambiguous discriminator can asymptoticly approach to that of usual unambiguous discrimination (state comparison) as the number of copies in program registers (data register) goes to infinity.
Tao Zhou
The Probability Distribution of Land Surface Wind Speeds
The probability density function (pdf) of land surface wind speeds is characterized using a global network of observations. Daytime surface wind speeds are shown to be broadly consistent with the Weibull distribution, while nighttime surface wind ...
Adam H. Monahan; Yanping He; Norman McFarlane; Aiguo Dai
Efficient probabilistic model checking of systems with ranged probabilities
We introduce a new technique to model check reachability properties on Interval Discrete-Time Markov Chains (IDTMC). We compute a sound over-approximation of the probabilities of satisfying a given property where the accuracy is characterized in terms ...
Khalil Ghorbal; Parasara Sridhar Duggirala; Vineet Kahlon; Franjo Ivan?i?; Aarti Gupta
A Model for Probability Nowcasts of Accumulated Precipitation Using Radar
A new model for making probability forecasts of accumulated spot precipitation from weather radar data is presented. The model selects a source region upwind of the forecast spot. All pixels (horizontal size 2 � 2 km2) within the source region ...
Tage Andersson; Karl-Ivar Ivarsson
Effects of Tides on Maximum Tsunami Wave Heights: Probability Distributions
A theoretical study was carried out to understand how the probability distribution for maximum wave heights (?m) during tsunamis depends on the initial tsunami amplitude (A) and the tides. It was assumed that the total wave height is the linear ...
Harold O. Mofjeld; Frank I. Gonz�lez; Vasily V. Titov; Angie J. Venturato; Jean C. Newman
Multichannel Satellite Retrieval of Cloud Parameter Probability Distribution Functions
A retrieval method has been developed to directly retrieve statistics of cloud parameters from Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) visible and infrared imager data. This method retrieves cloud parameter probability density ...
Darren McKague; K. Franklin Evans
On the Probability and Spatial Distribution of Ocean Surface Currents
Insights into the probability distribution of ocean currents are important for various applications such as the chance to encounter extreme events, which may affect, for example, marine construction, and for estimating the energy that can be ...
Yosef Ashkenazy; Hezi Gildor
The resonance absorption probability function for neutron and multiplicative integral
The analytical approximations for the moderating neutrons flux density like Fermi spectra, widely used in reactor physics, involve the probability function for moderating neutron to avoid the resonant absorption obtained using some restrictive assumptions regarding the acceptable resonances width. By means of multiplicative integral (Volterra integral) theory for a commutative algebra an analytical expression for the probability function is obtained rigorously without any restrictive assumptions.
Rusov, V D; Kosenko, S I; Chernegenko, S A
V. D. Rusov; V. A. Tarasov; S. I. Kosenko; S. A. Chernegenko
Scenario for a Magnitude 6.7 Earthquake
Institute and the Washington Military Department Emergency Management Division June 2005 #12;#12;Scenario for a Magnitude 6.7 Earthquake on the Seattle Fault Earthquake Engineering Research Institute and the Washington Street, Suite 320 Oakland, CA 94612-1934 USA Washington Military Department, Emergency Management
Wilcock, William
STIMO: STIll and MOving video storyboard for the web scenario
In the current Web scenario a video browsing tool that produces on-the-fly storyboards is more and more a need. Video summary techniques can be helpful but, due to their long processing time, they are usually unsuitable for on-the-fly usage. Therefore, ... Keywords: Clustering, Storyboards, Video browsing, Video summary
Marco Furini; Filippo Geraci; Manuela Montangero; Marco Pellegrini
California's Electricity System of the Future: Scenario Analysis in Support
Commission nor has the California Energy Commission passed upon the accuracy or adequacy of the information of a competitive electricity market. CERTS is currently conducting research for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOECalifornia's Electricity System of the Future: Scenario Analysis in Support of Public
Grid Computing consists of a collection of heterogeneous computers and resources spread across multiple administrative domains with the intent of providing users uniform access to these resources. There are many ways to access the resources of a Grid, ... Keywords: Global Grid Forum, Globus, Grid Computing, Legion, computer security, usage scenarios
Marty Humphrey; Mary R. Thompson
Scenarios for a Clean Energy Future Background 2.1
efficiency can decrease the "energy intensity" of the U.S. economy, thereby reducing carbon emissions. Energy zero energy growth over this 13-year period. Looking ahead, an actual decrease in U.S. energy that have made the U.S. economy much less energy intensive today than it was in #12;Scenarios for a Clean
iSee: interactive scenario explorer for online tournament games
Fantasy games, in which players compete to correctly predict real-world outcomes in sports, entertainment, and politics, have grown in popularity and now represent a significant portion of online gaming. Pick'em pools, also known as office pools, are ... Keywords: fantasy games, office pools, scenario exploration, tournament
Greg Smith; Desney Tan; Bongshin Lee
Exploring Humanoid Robots Locomotion Capabilities in Virtual Disaster Response Scenarios
Exploring Humanoid Robots Locomotion Capabilities in Virtual Disaster Response Scenarios Karim. INTRODUCTION Disaster response is attracting attention from the robotics research community, and even more by the DARPA's call on disaster operations. Hence, we focus on locomotion tasks that apparently require human
Paris-Sud XI, Université de
A comparison of standard evasion scenarios at near regional distances
We performed numerical simulations of three nuclear testing evasion scenarios. These calculations were done in two parts. The first part was done near source (within 10 km) with a non-linear weapons effects code. Particle velocity histories from the non-linear code were linked to an elastic linear finite-difference code for the second part. Seismic waveforms from the evasion scenario calculations were compared with the waveforms for a non-evasive explosion calculation at near regional distances. The results of this comparison suggest that it may be important to include realistic stratigraphy in such simulations: the overall wave amplitude in the present simulations is reduced by only a factor of 3-5 in contradiction to factors of 20-100 in {open_quotes}classical{close_quotes} decoupling analyses for ideal (i.e., unlayered) media. Two of the evasion scenarios simulated retain explosive waveform characteristics at near regional distances, while the third scenario indicates that certain source geometries might lead to more non-explosive (i.e., earthquake-like) seismic signals.
Bos, R.; App, F.; Jones, E.; Dey, T.; Kamm, J.
Creating interactive driver experiences with the scenario markup language
Serious games became an important device for increasing the awareness of issues that are important to society. One such issue is the environmental impact of driving. To support the training and wide promotion of eco-friendly driving, an appropriate platform ... Keywords: 3D virtual worlds, eco-friendly driving, markup languages, scenario programming
Kugamoorthy Gajananan; Eurico Doirado; Arturo Nakasone; Pedro Cuba; Helmut Prendinger; Marc Miska
Traffic Measurement and Statistical Analysis in a Disaster Area Scenario
-of-Hospital] disaster response."([5]) Public safety units need reliable communication independent of any inTraffic Measurement and Statistical Analysis in a Disaster Area Scenario Nils Aschenbruck, Matthias, 53117 Bonn, Germany {aschenbruck, matthew, martini, email@example.com Abstract-- Disaster areas
Managing Risk in Disaster Scenarios with Autonomous Robots
of damage. · The initial response to the disaster is limited to only those local rescue assets that have had some limited use in disaster response, most notably the responses led by the Center for Robot1 Managing Risk in Disaster Scenarios with Autonomous Robots Daniel P. Stormont and Vicki H. Allan
Allan, Vicki H.
Regionalized Global Energy Scenarios Meeting Stringent Climate Targets
to generate the energy supply mix that would meet given energy demands at lowest cost, assuming strongRegionalized Global Energy Scenarios Meeting Stringent Climate Targets cost effective fuel in the energy system it is less costly to reduce CO2-emissions #12;Global energy system model #12;Global energy
Deliverable D6.1 Requirements and scenarios for
2011 Contributing WP : WP6 Author(s) : Pierre Chatel (THA), Antoine Leger (THA), James Lockerbie (CITY.2 Atomic steps and attached requirements defined for scenario 1. Atomic steps and choreographies defined (THA), Antoine Leger (THA) 1.3 Added information from CITY, based on information gathered during
Scenario Analysis of Peak Demand Savings for Commercial Buildings with
Scenario Analysis of Peak Demand Savings for Commercial Buildings with Scenario Analysis of Peak Demand Savings for Commercial Buildings with Thermal Mass in California Title Scenario Analysis of Peak Demand Savings for Commercial Buildings with Thermal Mass in California Publication Type Conference Paper LBNL Report Number LBNL-3636e Year of Publication 2010 Authors Yin, Rongxin, Sila Kiliccote, Mary Ann Piette, and Kristen Parrish Conference Name 2010 ACEEE Summer Study on Energy Efficiency in Buildings Conference Location Pacific Grove, CA Keywords demand response and distributed energy resources center, demand response research center, demand shifting (pre-cooling), DRQAT Abstract This paper reports on the potential impact of demand response (DR) strategies in commercial buildings in California based on the Demand Response Quick Assessment Tool (DRQAT), which uses EnergyPlus simulation prototypes for office and retail buildings. The study describes the potential impact of building size, thermal mass, climate, and DR strategies on demand savings in commercial buildings. Sensitivity analyses are performed to evaluate how these factors influence the demand shift and shed during the peak period. The whole-building peak demand of a commercial building with high thermal mass in a hot climate zone can be reduced by 30% using an optimized demand response strategy. Results are summarized for various simulation scenarios designed to help owners and managers understand the potential savings for demand response deployment. Simulated demand savings under various scenarios were compared to field-measured data in numerous climate zones, allowing calibration of the prototype models. The simulation results are compared to the peak demand data from the Commercial End-Use Survey for commercial buildings in California. On the economic side, a set of electricity rates are used to evaluate the impact of the DR strategies on economic savings for different thermal mass and climate conditions. Our comparison of recent simulation to field test results provides an understanding of the DR potential in commercial buildings.
A scenario-driven role engineering process for functional RBAC roles
In this paper we present a novel scenario-driven role engineering process for RBAC roles. The scenario concept is of central significance for the presented approach. Due to the strong human factor in role engineering scenarios are a good means to drive ... Keywords: role engineering, role-based access control, scenarios
Gustaf Neumann; Mark Strembeck
Reliable Muddle: Transportation Scenarios for the 80% Greenhouse Gas Reduction Goal for 2050 (Presentation)
Presentation describing transportation scenarios for meeting the 2050 DOE goal of reducing greenhouse gases by 80%.
Melaina, M.; Webster, K.
Scenario construction and reduction applied to stochastic power generation expansion planning
A challenging aspect of applying stochastic programming in a dynamic setting is to construct a set of discrete scenarios that well represents multivariate stochastic processes for uncertain parameters. Often this is done by generating a scenario tree ... Keywords: Power generation expansion planning, Scenario generation, Scenario reduction, Stochastic programming
Yonghan Feng; Sarah M. Ryan
Some Applications of the Fractional Poisson Probability Distribution
Physical and mathematical applications of fractional Poisson probability distribution have been presented. As a physical application, a new family of quantum coherent states has been introduced and studied. As mathematical applications, we have discovered and developed the fractional generalization of Bell polynomials, Bell numbers, and Stirling numbers. Appearance of fractional Bell polynomials is natural if one evaluates the diagonal matrix element of the evolution operator in the basis of newly introduced quantum coherent states. Fractional Stirling numbers of the second kind have been applied to evaluate skewness and kurtosis of the fractional Poisson probability distribution function. A new representation of Bernoulli numbers in terms of fractional Stirling numbers of the second kind has been obtained. A representation of Schlafli polynomials in terms of fractional Stirling numbers of the second kind has been found. A new representations of Mittag-Leffler function involving fractional Bell polynomials and fractional Stirling numbers of the second kind have been discovered. Fractional Stirling numbers of the first kind have been introduced and studied. Two new polynomial sequences associated with fractional Poisson probability distribution have been launched and explored. The relationship between new polynomials and the orthogonal Charlier polynomials has also been investigated. In the limit case when the fractional Poisson probability distribution becomes the Poisson probability distribution, all of the above listed developments and implementations turn into the well-known results of quantum optics, the theory of combinatorial numbers and the theory of orthogonal polynomials of discrete variable.
Nick Laskin
Scenario development for water resources planning and watershed management: Methodology and semi-arid region case study
Utilizing the scenario development framework from Mahmoud et al. (2009), a set of scenarios were developed for and applied in the Verde River Watershed in Arizona, USA. Through a scenario definition exercise, three dimensions of future change with respective ... Keywords: Scenario development, Scenario planning, Scenarios, Water resources management, Water resources planning
Mohammed I. Mahmoud; Hoshin V. Gupta; Seshadri Rajagopal
Develop low emissions growth scenarios | Open Energy Information
low emissions growth scenarios low emissions growth scenarios Jump to: navigation, search Stage 3 LEDS Home Introduction to Framework Assess current country plans, policies, practices, and capacities Develop_BAU Stage 4: Prioritizing and Planning for Actions Begin execution of implementation plans 1.0. Organizing the LEDS Process 1.1. Institutional Structure for LEDS 1.2. Workplan to Develop the LEDS 1.3. Roles and responsibilities to develop LEDS 2.1. Assess current country plans, policies, practices, and capacities 2.2. Compile lessons learned and good practices from ongoing and previous sustainable development efforts in the country 2.3. Assess public and private sector capacity to support initiatives 2.4. Assess and improve the national GHG inventory and other economic and resource data as needed for LEDS development
Energy System and Scenario Analysis Toolkit | Open Energy Information
(Redirected from Gateway:International/Energy Scenario Analysis) (Redirected from Gateway:International/Energy Scenario Analysis) Jump to: navigation, search Stage 3 LEDS Home Introduction to Framework Assess current country plans, policies, practices, and capacities Develop_BAU Stage 4: Prioritizing and Planning for Actions Begin execution of implementation plans 1.0. Organizing the LEDS Process 1.1. Institutional Structure for LEDS 1.2. Workplan to Develop the LEDS 1.3. Roles and responsibilities to develop LEDS 2.1. Assess current country plans, policies, practices, and capacities 2.2. Compile lessons learned and good practices from ongoing and previous sustainable development efforts in the country 2.3. Assess public and private sector capacity to support initiatives 2.4. Assess and improve the national GHG inventory and other
Planning substation capacity under the single-contingency scenario
Florida Power and Light (FPL) adopts the single contingency emergency policy for its planning of substation capacity. This paper provides an approach to determine the maximum load which a substation can take on under such a policy. The approach consists of two LP models which determine: (1) the maximum substation load capacity, and (2) the reallocation of load when a substation`s demand cannot be met. Both models are formulated under the single-contingency scenario, an issue which had received little attention in the literature. Not only does the explicit treatment of the scenario provide an exact measure of a substation`s load limit, it also raises several important issues which previous works omit. These two models have been applied to the substation network of the Fort Myers District of the State of Florida.
Leung, L.C. [Chinese Univ. of Hong Kong, Shatin (Hong Kong). Decision Sciences and Managerial Economics; Khator, S.K. [Univ. of South Florida, Tampa, FL (United States). Industrial and Management Systems Engineering; Schnepp, J.C. [Crest Ultrasonics, Trenton, NJ (United States)
Inflation scenario via the Standard Model Higgs boson and LHC
We consider a quantum corrected inflation scenario driven by a generic GUT or Standard Model type particle model whose scalar field playing the role of an inflaton has a strong non-minimal coupling to gravity. We show that currently widely accepted bounds on the Higgs mass falsify the suggestion of the paper arXiv:0710.3755 (where the role of radiative corrections was underestimated) that the Standard Model Higgs boson can serve as the inflaton. However, if the Higgs mass could be raised to $\\sim 230$ GeV, then the Standard Model could generate an inflationary scenario with the spectral index of the primordial perturbation spectrum $n_s\\simeq 0.935$ (barely matching present observational data) and the very low tensor-to-scalar perturbation ratio $r\\simeq 0.0006$.
A. O. Barvinsky; A. Yu. Kamenshchik; A. A. Starobinsky
The Unified First law in "Cosmic Triad" Vector Field Scenario
In this letter, we try to apply the unified first law to the "cosmic triad" vector field scenario both in the minimal coupling case and in the non-minimalcoupling case. After transferring the non-minimally coupling action in Jordan frame to Einstein frame, the correct dynamical equation (Friedmann equation) is gotten in a thermal equilibrium process by using the already existing entropy while the entropy in the non-minimal coupled "cosmic triad" scenario has not been derived. And after transferring the variables back to Jordan frame, the corresponding Friedmann equation is demonstrated to be correct. For complete arguments, we also calculate the related Misner-Sharp energy in Jordan and Einstein frames.
Yi Zhang; Yungui Gong; Zong-Hong Zhu
Systems analysis of past, present, and future chemical terrorism scenarios.
Throughout history, as new chemical threats arose, strategies for the defense against chemical attacks have also evolved. As a part of an Early Career Laboratory Directed Research and Development project, a systems analysis of past, present, and future chemical terrorism scenarios was performed to understand how the chemical threats and attack strategies change over time. For the analysis, the difficulty in executing chemical attack was evaluated within a framework of three major scenario elements. First, historical examples of chemical terrorism were examined to determine how the use of chemical threats, versus other weapons, contributed to the successful execution of the attack. Using the same framework, the future of chemical terrorism was assessed with respect to the impact of globalization and new technologies. Finally, the efficacy of the current defenses against contemporary chemical terrorism was considered briefly. The results of this analysis justify the need for continued diligence in chemical defense.
Hoette, Trisha Marie
Land-use Scenario Analysis Toolkit | Open Energy Information
Land-use Scenario Analysis Toolkit Land-use Scenario Analysis Toolkit Jump to: navigation, search Stage 3 LEDS Home Introduction to Framework Assess current country plans, policies, practices, and capacities Develop_BAU Stage 4: Prioritizing and Planning for Actions Begin execution of implementation plans 1.0. Organizing the LEDS Process 1.1. Institutional Structure for LEDS 1.2. Workplan to Develop the LEDS 1.3. Roles and responsibilities to develop LEDS 2.1. Assess current country plans, policies, practices, and capacities 2.2. Compile lessons learned and good practices from ongoing and previous sustainable development efforts in the country 2.3. Assess public and private sector capacity to support initiatives 2.4. Assess and improve the national GHG inventory and other economic and resource data as needed for LEDS development
Energy System and Scenario Analysis Toolkit Energy System and Scenario Analysis Toolkit Jump to: navigation, search Stage 3 LEDS Home Introduction to Framework Assess current country plans, policies, practices, and capacities Develop_BAU Stage 4: Prioritizing and Planning for Actions Begin execution of implementation plans 1.0. Organizing the LEDS Process 1.1. Institutional Structure for LEDS 1.2. Workplan to Develop the LEDS 1.3. Roles and responsibilities to develop LEDS 2.1. Assess current country plans, policies, practices, and capacities 2.2. Compile lessons learned and good practices from ongoing and previous sustainable development efforts in the country 2.3. Assess public and private sector capacity to support initiatives 2.4. Assess and improve the national GHG inventory and other economic and resource data as needed for LEDS development
Stage 3c: Developing and Assessing Low Emissions Development Scenarios |
Stage 3c: Developing and Assessing Low Emissions Development Scenarios Stage 3c: Developing and Assessing Low Emissions Development Scenarios Jump to: navigation, search Stage 3 LEDS Home Introduction to Framework Assess current country plans, policies, practices, and capacities Develop_BAU Stage 4: Prioritizing and Planning for Actions Begin execution of implementation plans 1.0. Organizing the LEDS Process 1.1. Institutional Structure for LEDS 1.2. Workplan to Develop the LEDS 1.3. Roles and responsibilities to develop LEDS 2.1. Assess current country plans, policies, practices, and capacities 2.2. Compile lessons learned and good practices from ongoing and previous sustainable development efforts in the country 2.3. Assess public and private sector capacity to support initiatives 2.4. Assess and improve the national GHG inventory and other
Generating Probability Distributions using Multivalued Stochastic Relay Circuits
The problem of random number generation dates back to von Neumann's work in 1951. Since then, many algorithms have been developed for generating unbiased bits from complex correlated sources as well as for generating arbitrary distributions from unbiased bits. An equally interesting, but less studied aspect is the structural component of random number generation as opposed to the algorithmic aspect. That is, given a network structure imposed by nature or physical devices, how can we build networks that generate arbitrary probability distributions in an optimal way? In this paper, we study the generation of arbitrary probability distributions in multivalued relay circuits, a generalization in which relays can take on any of N states and the logical 'and' and 'or' are replaced with 'min' and 'max' respectively. Previous work was done on two-state relays. We generalize these results, describing a duality property and networks that generate arbitrary rational probability distributions. We prove that these network...
Lee, David
Helicity Probabilities For Heavy Quark Fragmentation Into Excited Mesons
In the fragmentation of a heavy quark into a heavy meson whose light degrees of freedom have angular momentum $3/2$, all the helicity probabilities are completely determined in the heavy quark limit up to a single probability $w_{3/2}$. We point out that this probability depends on the longitudinal momentum fraction $z$ of the meson and on its transverse momentum $p_\\bot$ relative to the jet axis. We calculate $w_{3/2}$ as a function of scaling variables corresponding to $z$ and $p_\\bot$ for the heavy quark limit of the perturbative QCD fragmentation functions for $b$ quark to fragment into $(b \\bar c)$ mesons. In this model, the light degrees of freedom prefer to have their angular momentum aligned transverse to, rather than along, the jet axis. Implications for the production of excited heavy mesons, like $D^{**}$ and $B^{**}$, are discussed.
Tzu Chiang Yuan
Beable-Guided Quantum Theories: Generalising Quantum Probability Laws
We introduce the idea of a {\\it beable-guided quantum theory}. Beable-guided quantum theories (BGQT) are generalisations of quantum theory, inspired by Bell's concept of beables. They modify the quantum probabilities for some specified set of fundamental events, histories, or other elements of quasiclassical reality by probability laws that depend on the realised configuration of beables. For example, they may define an additional probability weight factor for a beable configuration, independent of the quantum dynamics. BGQT can be fitted to observational data to provide foils against which to compare explanations based on standard quantum theory. For example, a BGQT could, in principle, characterise the effects attributed to dark energy or dark matter, or any other deviation from the predictions of standard quantum dynamics, without introducing extra fields or a cosmological constant. The complexity of the beable-guided theory would then parametrise how far we are from a standard quantum explanation. Less co...
Kent, Adrian
Stakeholder and Public Perceptions of 2030 Bioenergy Scenarios for Yorkshire
. This is supported by his comment that co-firing has "huge environmental potential". The other scenarios perform near 3.7 Head of Environment, Drax power station Drax is currently (2005/6) co-firing some 200,000 tonnes the confidence to move to energy crop supply. Co-firing is seen as potentially kick-starting take-up of smaller
California's Carbon Challenge: Scenarios for Achieving 80% Emissions
Carbon Challenge: Scenarios for Achieving 80% Emissions Carbon Challenge: Scenarios for Achieving 80% Emissions Reduction in 2050 Title California's Carbon Challenge: Scenarios for Achieving 80% Emissions Reduction in 2050 Publication Type Report LBNL Report Number LBNL-5448E Year of Publication 2012 Authors Wei, Max, James H. Nelson, Michael K. Ting, Christopher Yang, J. Greenblatt, James E. McMahon, Daniel M. Kammen, Christopher M. Jones, Ana Mileva, Josiah Johnston, and Ranjit Bharvirkar Date Published 10/2012 Abstract Meeting the State of California's 2050 target of 80% lower greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) from a 1990 baseline is a challenging goal that cannot be met without a portfolio of measures and strategies that span both energy demand and energy supply. This study focuses on energy emissions with the target of reducing energy emissions by 80% relative to 1990 energy emissions. Meeting the 2050 target requires both a sustained commitment to aggressively develop existing technologies as well as an aggressive and sustained policy commitment to reshape and ultimately transform the state's energy system. The 2050 GHG target for California appears achievable, but requires significant changes in the way we produce energy, deliver energy services, and utilize energy.
Solar and Wind Energy Utilization and Project Development Scenarios |
Utilization and Project Development Scenarios Utilization and Project Development Scenarios Dataset Summary Description (Abstract): Solar and wind energy resources in Ethiopia have not been given due attention in the past. Some of the primary reasons for under consideration of these resources are lack of awareness of their potential in the country, the role they can have in the overall energy mix and the social benefits associated with them. Knowledge of the exploitable potential of these resources and identification of potential regions for development will help energy planners and developers to incorporate these resources as alternative means of supplying energy by conducting a more accurate techno-economic analysis which leads to more realistic economic projections. (Purpose): The ultimate objective of this study is to produce a document that comprises country background information on solar and wind energy utilization and project scenarios which present solar and wind energy investment opportunities to investors and decision makers. It is an integrated study with specific objectives of resource documentation including analysis of barriers and policies, identification of potential areas for technology promotion, and nationwide aggregation of potentials and benefits of the resource. The
Double Ended Guillotine Break in a Prismatic Block VHTR Lower Plenum Air Ingress Scenario
The double ended guillotine break leading to density-driven air ingress has been identified as a low probability yet high consequence event for Very High Temperature Reactor (VHTR). The lower plenum of the VHTR contains the core support structure and is composed of graphite. During an air ingress event, oxidation of the graphite structure under high temperature conditions in an oxygen containing environment could degrade the integrity of the core support structure. Following this large break, air from the reactor containment will begin to enter the lower plenum via two mechanisms: diffusion or density driven stratified flow. The large difference in time scales between the mechanisms leads to the need to perform high fidelity experimental studies to investigate the dominant the air ingress mechanism. A scaled test facility has been designed and built that allows the acquisition of velocity measurements during stratification after a pipe break. A non-intrusive optical measurement technique provides full-field velocity measurements profiles of the two species Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV). The data allow a more developed understanding of the fundamental flow features, the development of improved models, and possible mitigation strategies in such a scenario.Two brine-water experiments were conducted with different break locations. Flow fronts were analyzed and findings concluded that the flow has a constant speed through the pipe after the initial lock exchange. The time in which the flow enters the lower plenum is an important factor because it provides the window of opportunity for mitigation strategies in an actual reactor scenario. For both cases the flow of the heavier density liquid (simulating air ingress from the reactor containment) from the pipe enters the reactor vessel in under 6 seconds. The diffusion velocity and heavy flow front of the stratified flow layer were compared for the SF6/He gas case. It is seen that the diffusion plays less of a role as the transport mechanism in comparison to the density-driven stratified flow since the velocity of the diffusion is two orders of magnitude smaller than the velocity of the stratified flow mechanism. This is the reason for the need for density-driven stratified flow investigations following a LOCA. These investigations provided high-quality data for CFD validation in order for these models to depict the basic phenomena occurring in an air ingress scenario.
Hartley, Jessica
Probability Distribution of Curvatures of Isosurfaces in Gaussian Random Fields
An expression for the joint probability distribution of the principal curvatures at an arbitrary point in the ensemble of isosurfaces defined on isotropic Gaussian random fields on Rn is derived. The result is obtained by deriving symmetry properties of the ensemble of second derivative matrices of isotropic Gaussian random fields akin to those of the Gaussian orthogonal ensemble.
Paulo R. S. Mendonca; Rahul Bhotika; James V. Miller
One of the main concerns of storage in saline aquifers is leakage via faults. In the early stages of site selection, site-specific fault coverages are often not available for these aquifers. This necessitates a method using available fault data to estimate the probability of injected carbon dioxide encountering and migrating up a fault. The probability of encounter can be calculated from areal fault density statistics from available data, and carbon dioxide plume dimensions from numerical simulation. Given a number of assumptions, the dimension of the plume perpendicular to a fault times the areal density of faults with offsets greater than some threshold of interest provides probability of the plume encountering such a fault. Application of this result to a previously planned large-scale pilot injection in the southern portion of the San Joaquin Basin yielded a 3% and 7% chance of the plume encountering a fully and half seal offsetting fault, respectively. Subsequently available data indicated a half seal-offsetting fault at a distance from the injection well that implied a 20% probability of encounter for a plume sufficiently large to reach it.
The Emergence and Interpretation of Probability in Bohmian Mechanics1
The Emergence and Interpretation of Probability in Bohmian Mechanics1 The Bohm interpretation of quantum mechanics is capable of illustrating, by itself, virtually every philosophical and foundational comes in many forms, both stochastic and deterministic. The other reason is that quantum mechanics
Callender, Craig
Probability around the Quantum Gravity. Part 1: Planar Pure Gravity
Probability around the Quantum Gravity. Part 1: Planar Pure Gravity V.A.Malyshev \\Lambda September 17, 1998 Abstract In this paper we study stochastic dynamics which leaves quantum gravity equilibrium science and biology. At the same time the paper can serve an intro duction to quantum gravity
Minimizing the Probability of Ruin when Consumption is Ratcheted
We assume that an agent's rate of consumption is {\\it ratcheted}; that is, it forms a non-decreasing process. Given the rate of consumption, we act as financial advisers and find the optimal investment strategy for the agent who wishes to minimize his probability of ruin.
Bayraktar, Erhan
Verification of The Weather Channel Probability of Precipitation Forecasts
The Weather Channel (TWC) is a leading provider of weather information to the general public. In this paper the reliability of their probability of precipitation (PoP) forecasts over a 14-month period at 42 locations across the United States is ...
J. Eric Bickel; Seong Dae Kim
Spin flip probability of electron in a uniform magnetic field
The probability that an electromagnetic wave can flip the spin of an electron is calculated. It is assumed that the electron resides in a uniform magnetic field and interacts with an incoming electromagnetic pulse. The scattering matrix is constructed and the time needed to flip the spin is calculated.
Hammond, Richard T. [Department of Physics, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina and Army Research Office, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina 27703 (United States)
Digital Dice: Computational Solutions to Practical Probability Problems
Some probability problems are so difficult that they stump the smartest mathematicians. But even the hardest of these problems can often be solved with a computer and a Monte Carlo simulation, in which a random-number generator simulates a physical process, ...
Paul J. Nahin
A Model to Predict the Probability of Precipitation
A model to predict the probability of a specific amount of accumulated precipitation at a point in an area of extended convective precipitation has been developed. The model has been used in conjunction with a large-scale numerical forecast model ...
Ulla Hammarstrand
Probable Maximum Precipitation Study for Wisconsin and Michigan: Volume 1
The study provides maps and supporting information on the probable maximum precipitation (PMP) for Wisconsin and Michigan. The refinement of PMP for the study area has typically lowered the PMP from the generalized values in Hydrometeorological Report (HMR) 51. The study followed HMR 51 procedures with some minor changes that apply to other regions.
imported for co-firing is assumed to be positive (very probably correctly) and the environmental impacts inefficiencies of co-fired electricity generation and transmission are assumed to be acceptable, firstly because these are present regardless of the fuel used for centralised electrical generation, and secondly because co-fired
Deployment Effects of Marine Renewable Energy Technologies: Wave Energy Scenarios
Given proper care in siting, design, deployment, operation and maintenance, wave energy conversion could become one of the more environmentally benign sources of electricity generation. In order to accelerate the adoption of these emerging hydrokinetic and marine energy technologies, navigational and environmental concerns must be identified and addressed. All developing hydrokinetic projects involve a wide variety of stakeholders. One of the key issues that site developers face as they engage with this range of stakeholders is that, due to a lack of technical certainty, many of the possible conflicts (e.g., shipping and fishing) and environmental issues are not well-understood,. In September 2008, re vision consulting, LLC was selected by the Department of Energy (DoE) to apply a scenario-based assessment to the emerging hydrokinetic technology sector in order to evaluate the potential impact of these technologies on the marine environment and navigation constraints. The project�s scope of work includes the establishment of baseline scenarios for wave and tidal power conversion at potential future deployment sites. The scenarios capture variations in technical approaches and deployment scales to properly identify and characterize environmental effects and navigational effects. The goal of the project is to provide all stakeholders with an improved understanding of the potential range of technical attributes and potential effects of these emerging technologies and focus all stakeholders on the critical issues that need to be addressed. By identifying and addressing navigational and environmental concerns in the early stages of the industry�s development, serious mistakes that could potentially derail industry-wide development can be avoided. This groundwork will also help in streamlining siting and associated permitting processes, which are considered key hurdles for the industry�s development in the U.S. today. Re vision is coordinating its efforts with two other project teams funded by DoE which are focused on regulatory issues (Pacific Energy Ventures) and navigational issues (PCCI). The results of this study are structured into three reports: (1) Wave power scenario description (2) Tidal power scenario description (3) Framework for Identifying Key Environmental Concerns This is the first report in the sequence and describes the results of conceptual feasibility studies of wave power plants deployed in Humboldt County, California and Oahu, Hawaii. These two sites contain many of the same competing stakeholder interactions identified at other wave power sites in the U.S. and serve as representative case studies. Wave power remains at an early stage of development. As such, a wide range of different technologies are being pursued by different manufacturers. In order to properly characterize potential effects, it is useful to characterize the range of technologies that could be deployed at the site of interest. An industry survey informed the process of selecting representative wave power devices. The selection criteria requires that devices are at an advanced stage of development to reduce technical uncertainties, and that enough data are available from the manufacturers to inform the conceptual design process of this study. Further, an attempt is made to cover the range of different technologies under development to capture variations in potential environmental effects. Table 1 summarizes the selected wave power technologies. A number of other developers are also at an advanced stage of development, but are not directly mentioned here. Many environmental effects will largely scale with the size of the wave power plant. In many cases, the effects of a single device may not be measurable, while larger scale device arrays may have cumulative impacts that differ significantly from smaller scale deployments. In order to characterize these effects, scenarios are established at three deployment scales which nominally represent (1) a small pilot deployment, (2) a small commercial deployment, and (3) a large commercial sc
Mirko Previsic
Modified GBIG Scenario as a Successful Alternative for Dark Energy
We construct a DGP-inspired braneworld model where induced gravity on the brane is modified in the spirit of $f(R)$ gravity and stringy effects are taken into account by incorporation of the Gauss-Bonnet term in the bulk action. We explore cosmological dynamics of this model and we show that this scenario is a successful alternative for dark energy proposal. Interestingly, it realizes the phantom-like behavior without introduction of any phantom field on the brane and the effective equation of state parameter crosses the cosmological constant line naturally in the same way as observational data suggest.
Nozari, Kourosh
Executive Summary High-Yield Scenario Workshop Series Report
To get a collective sense of the impact of research and development (R&D) on biomass resource availability, and to determine the feasibility that yields higher than baseline assumptions used for past assessments could be achieved to support U.S. energy independence, an alternate �High-Yield Scenario� (HYS) concept was presented to industry experts at a series of workshops held in December 2009. The workshops explored future production of corn/agricultural crop residues, herbaceous energy crops (HECs), and woody energy crops (WECs). This executive summary reports the findings of that workshop.
Leslie Park Ovard; Thomas H. Ulrich; David J. Muth Jr.; J. Richard Hess; Steven Thomas; Bryce Stokes
Modified GBIG Scenario as an Alternative for Dark Energy
Kourosh Nozari; Narges Rashidi
Evaluation of potential severe accidents during low power and shutdown operations at Grand Gulf, Unit 1: Analysis of core damage frequency from internal events for Plant Operational State 5 during a refueling outage. Volume 2, Part 3: Internal Events Appendices I and J
This report provides supporting documentation for various tasks associated with the performance of the probablistic risk assessment for Plant Operational State 5 during a refueling outage at Grand Gulf, Unit 1 as documented in Volume 2, Part 1 of NUREG/CR-6143.
Yakle, J. [Science Applications International Corp., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Darby, J. [Science and Engineering Associates, Inc., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Whitehead, D.; Staple, B. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States)
Thailand-NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 | Open Energy Information
Thailand-NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 Thailand-NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 Jump to: navigation, search Name Thailand-NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 Agency/Company /Organization National Institute for Environmental Studies Topics Background analysis, Low emission development planning Website http://2050.nies.go.jp/LCS/ind Program Start 2009 Country Thailand UN Region Eastern Asia References 2050 Low-Carbon Society Scenarios (LCSs)[1] National and Local Scenarios National and local scenarios available from the activity webpage: http://2050.nies.go.jp/LCS/index.html References ↑ "2050 Low-Carbon Society Scenarios (LCSs)" Retrieved from "http://en.openei.org/w/index.php?title=Thailand-NIES_Low-Carbon_Society_Scenarios_2050&oldid=700318" Category: Programs
Vietnam-NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 | Open Energy Information
Vietnam-NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 Vietnam-NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 Jump to: navigation, search Name Vietnam-NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 Agency/Company /Organization National Institute for Environmental Studies Topics Background analysis, Low emission development planning Website http://2050.nies.go.jp/LCS/ind Program Start 2009 Country Vietnam UN Region Eastern Asia References 2050 Low-Carbon Society Scenarios (LCSs)[1] National and Local Scenarios National and local scenarios available from the activity webpage: http://2050.nies.go.jp/LCS/index.html References ↑ "2050 Low-Carbon Society Scenarios (LCSs)" Retrieved from "http://en.openei.org/w/index.php?title=Vietnam-NIES_Low-Carbon_Society_Scenarios_2050&oldid=700320" Category: Programs
Japan-NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 | Open Energy Information
Japan-NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 Japan-NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 Jump to: navigation, search Name Japan-NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 Agency/Company /Organization National Institute for Environmental Studies Topics Background analysis, Low emission development planning Website http://2050.nies.go.jp/LCS/ind Program Start 2009 Country Japan UN Region Eastern Asia References 2050 Low-Carbon Society Scenarios (LCSs)[1] National and Local Scenarios National and local scenarios available from the activity webpage: http://2050.nies.go.jp/LCS/index.html References ↑ "2050 Low-Carbon Society Scenarios (LCSs)" Retrieved from "http://en.openei.org/w/index.php?title=Japan-NIES_Low-Carbon_Society_Scenarios_2050&oldid=700314" Category: Programs What links here
Indonesia-NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 | Open Energy Information
Indonesia-NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 Indonesia-NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 Jump to: navigation, search Name Indonesia-NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 Agency/Company /Organization National Institute for Environmental Studies Topics Background analysis, Low emission development planning Website http://2050.nies.go.jp/LCS/ind Program Start 2009 Country Indonesia UN Region Eastern Asia References 2050 Low-Carbon Society Scenarios (LCSs)[1] National and Local Scenarios National and local scenarios available from the activity webpage: http://2050.nies.go.jp/LCS/index.html References ↑ "2050 Low-Carbon Society Scenarios (LCSs)" Retrieved from "http://en.openei.org/w/index.php?title=Indonesia-NIES_Low-Carbon_Society_Scenarios_2050&oldid=700312" Category:
Exploring the Structure of Regional Climate Scenarios by Combining Synoptic and Dynamic Guidance and GCM Output
A set of regional climate scenarios is constructed for two study regions in North America using a combination of GCM output and synoptic�dynamical reasoning. The approach begins by describing the structure and components of a climate scenario and ...
James S. Risbey; Peter J. Lamb; Ron L. Miller; Michael C. Morgan; Gerard H. Roe
China-NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 | Open Energy Information
China-NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 Jump to: navigation, search Name China-NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 AgencyCompany Organization National Institute for...
Scenario Analysis of Peak Demand Savings for Commercial Buildings with Thermal Mass in California
Scenario Analysis of Peak Demand Savings for CommercialScenario Analysis of Peak Demand Savings for CommercialThe whole-building peak demand of a commercial building with
Yin, Rongxin
Japan's Long-term Energy Demand and Supply Scenario to 2050 ...
Long-term Energy Demand and Supply Scenario to 2050 - Estimation for the Potential of Massive CO2 Mitigation Title Japan's Long-term Energy Demand and Supply Scenario to 2050 -...
Long-Range U.S. Energy Price and Quantity Projections inLaboratory. Natural Gas Price Scenarios Among activelys 2004 IRP includes three gas price scenarios. As shown in
and trade - - offs) need to be assessed as part of offs) need to be assessed as part of scenario analysis. What makes hydrogen scenario analysis. What makes hydrogen FCVs FCVs...
DOE Hydrogen and Fuel Cells Program: 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis...
Scenario Analysis Printable Version 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure A transition from the current U.S. energy system to one based on...
Probability based load combinations for design of category I structures
This paper discusses a reliability analysis method and a procedure for developing the load combination design criteria for category I structures. For safety evaluation of category I concrete structures under various static and dynamic loads, a probability-based reliability analysis method has been developed. This reliability analysis method is also used as a tool for determining the load factors for design of category I structures. In this paper, the load combinations for design of concrete containments, corresponding to a target limit state probability of 1.0 x 10/sup -6/ in 4 years, are described. A comparison of containments designed using the ASME code and the proposed design criteria is also presented.
Reich, M.; Hwang, H.
Computable randomness and betting for computable probability spaces
Unlike Martin-L\\"of randomness and Schnorr randomness, computable randomness has not been defined, except for a few ad hoc cases, outside of Cantor space. This paper offers such a definition (actually, many equivalent definitions), and further, provides a general method for abstracting "bit-wise" definitions of randomness from Cantor space to arbitrary computable probability spaces. This same method is also applied to give machine characterizations of computable and Schnorr randomness for computable probability spaces, extending the previous known results. This paper also addresses "Schnorr's Critique" that gambling characterizations of Martin-L\\"of randomness are not computable enough. The paper contains a new type of randomness---endomorphism randomness---which the author hopes will shed light on the open question of whether Kolmogorov-Loveland randomness is equivalent to Martin-L\\"of randomness. It ends with other possible applications of the methods presented, including a possible definition of computable...
Rute, Jason
The probability of long cycles in interchange processes
We examine the number of cycles of length k in a permutation, as a function on the symmetric group. We write it explicitly as a combination of characters of irreducible representations. This allows to study formation of long cycles in the interchange process, including a precise formula for the probability that the permutation is one long cycle at a given time t, and estimates for the cases of shorter cycles.
Alon, Gil
Dynamical probability, particle trajectories and completion of traditional quantum mechanics
Maintaining the position that the wave function $\\psi$ provides a complete description of state, the traditional formalism of quantum mechanics is augmented by introducing continuous trajectories for particles which are sample paths of a stochastic process determined (including the underlying probability space) by $\\psi$. In the resulting formalism, problems relating to measurements and objective reality are solved as in Bohmian mechanics (without sharing its weak points). The pitfalls of Nelson's stochastic mechanics are also avoided.
Tulsi Dass
Evaluations of Structural Failure Probabilities and Candidate Inservice Inspection Programs
The work described in this report applies probabilistic structural mechanics models to predict the reliability of nuclear pressure boundary components. These same models are then applied to evaluate the effectiveness of alternative programs for inservice inspection to reduce these failure probabilities. Results of the calculations support the development and implementation of risk-informed inservice inspection of piping and vessels. Studies have specifically addressed the potential benefits of ultrasonic inspections to reduce failure probabilities associated with fatigue crack growth and stress-corrosion cracking. Parametric calculations were performed with the computer code pc-PRAISE to generate an extensive set of plots to cover a wide range of pipe wall thicknesses, cyclic operating stresses, and inspection strategies. The studies have also addressed critical inputs to fracture mechanics calculations such as the parameters that characterize the number and sizes of fabrication flaws in piping welds. Other calculations quantify uncertainties associated with the inputs calculations, the uncertainties in the fracture mechanics models, and the uncertainties in the resulting calculated failure probabilities. A final set of calculations address the effects of flaw sizing errors on the effectiveness of inservice inspection programs.
Khaleel, Mohammad A.; Simonen, Fredric A.
Dimension-Independent Positive-Partial-Transpose Probability Ratios
We conduct quasi-Monte Carlo numerical integrations in two very high (80 and 79)-dimensional domains -- the parameter spaces of rank-9 and rank-8 qutrit-qutrit (9 x 9) density matrices. We, then, estimate the ratio of the probability -- in terms of the Hilbert-Schmidt metric -- that a generic rank-9 density matrix has a positive partial transpose (PPT) to the probability that a generic rank-8 density matrix has a PPT (a precondition to separability/nonentanglement). Close examination of the numerical results generated -- despite certain large fluctuations -- indicates that the true ratio may, in fact, be 2. Our earlier investigation (eprint quant-ph/0410238) also yielded estimates close to 2 of the comparable ratios for qubit-qubit and qubit-qutrit pairs (the only two cases where the PPT condition fully implies separability). Therefore, it merits conjecturing (as Zyczkowski was the first to do) that such Hilbert-Schmidt (rank-NM/rank-(NM-1)) PPT probability ratios are 2 for all NM-dimensional quantum systems.
Paul B. Slater
What is the probability that radiation caused a particular cancer
Courts, lawyers, health physicists, physicians, and others are searching for a credible answer to the question posed in the title of this paper. The cases in which the question arises frequently stem from an individual that has cancer and they, or their next-of-kin, are convinced that a past radiation exposure - usually small - is responsible for causing it. An arithmetic expression of this problem is simple: the probability of causation by the radiation dose in question is equal to the risk of cancer from the radiation dose divided by the risk of cancer from all causes. The application of risk factors to this equation is not so simple. It must involve careful evaluation of the reliability of and variations in risk coefficients for development of cancer due to radiation exposure, other carcinogenic agents, and natural causes for the particular individual. Examination of our knowledge of these various factors indicates that a large range in the answers can result due to the variability and imprecision of the data. Nevertheless, the attempts to calculate and the probability that radiation caused the cancer is extremely useful to provide a gross perspective on the probability of causation. It will likely rule in or out a significant number of cases despite the limitations in our understandings of the etiology of cancer and the risks from various factors. For the remaining cases, a thoughtful and educated judgment based on selected data and circumstances of the case will also be needed before the expert can develop and support his opinion.
Voelz, G.L.
Energy Technology Perspectives, 2010: Scenarios & Strategies to 2050 | Open
Page Page Edit with form History Facebook icon Twitter icon » Energy Technology Perspectives, 2010: Scenarios & Strategies to 2050 Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Energy Technology Perspectives, 2010: Scenarios & Strategies to 2050 Focus Area: Carbon Capture and Storage Topics: Environmental Website: www.iea.org/Textbase/nppdf/free/2010/etp2010_part1.pdf Equivalent URI: cleanenergysolutions.org/content/energy-technology-perspectives-2010-s Policies: "Regulations,Financial Incentives" is not in the list of possible values (Deployment Programs, Financial Incentives, Regulations) for this property. Regulations: "Emissions Standards,Emissions Mitigation Scheme,Mandates/Targets" is not in the list of possible values (Agriculture Efficiency Requirements, Appliance & Equipment Standards and Required Labeling, Audit Requirements, Building Certification, Building Codes, Cost Recovery/Allocation, Emissions Mitigation Scheme, Emissions Standards, Enabling Legislation, Energy Standards, Feebates, Feed-in Tariffs, Fuel Efficiency Standards, Incandescent Phase-Out, Mandates/Targets, Net Metering & Interconnection, Resource Integration Planning, Safety Standards, Upgrade Requirements, Utility/Electricity Service Costs) for this property.
Retrieval system for emplaced spent unreprocessed fuel (SURF) in salt bed depository. Baseline concept criteria specifications and mechanical failure probabilities
One of the integral elements of the Nuclear Waste Management Program is the material handling task of retrieving Canisters containing spent unreprocessed fuel from their emplacement in a deep geologic salt bed Depository. A study of the retrieval concept data base predicated this report. In this report, alternative concepts for the tasks are illustrated and critiqued, a baseline concept in scenario form is derived and basic retrieval subsystem specifications are presented with cyclic failure probabilities predicted. The report is based on the following assumptions: (a) during retrieval, a temporary radiation seal is placed over each Canister emplacement; (b) a sleeve, surrounding the Canister, was initially installed during the original emplacement; (c) the emplacement room's physical and environmental conditions established in this report are maintained while the task is performed.
Hudson, E.E.; McCleery, J.E.
User interface prototyping based on UML scenarios and high-level Petri nets
In this paper, we suggest a requirement engineering process that generates a user interface prototype from scenarios and yields a formal specification of the system in form of a high-level Petri net. Scenarios are acquired in the form of sequence diagrams ... Keywords: high-level petri net, scenario specification, unified modeling language, user interface prototyping
Mohammed Elkoutbi; Rudolf K. Keller
Special Report on Emissions Scenarios : a special report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios Contents: Foreword Preface Summary for policymakers Technical Summary Chapter 1: Background and Overview Chapter 2: An Overview of the Scenario Literature Chapter 3: Scenario Driving Forces Chapter 4: An Overview of Scenarios Chapter 5: Emission Scenarios Chapter 6: Summary Discussions and Recommendations
Nakicenovic, Nebojsa; Alcamo, Joseph; Davis, Gerald; de Vries, Bert; Fenhann, Joergen; Gaffin, Stuart; Gregory, Kenneth; Grubler, Arnulf; Jung, Tae Yong; Kram, Tom; La Rovere, Emilio Lebre; Michaelis, Laurie; Mori, Shunsuke; Morita, Tsuneyuki; Pepper, William; Pitcher, Hugh M.; Price, Lynn; Riahi, Keywan; Roehrl, Alexander; Rogner, Hans-Holger; Sankovski, Alexei; Schlesinger, Michael; Shukla, Priyadarshi; Smith, Steven J.; Swart, Robert; van Rooijen, Sascha; Victor, Nadejda; Dadi, Zhou
Improvements to Hydrogen Delivery Scenario Analysis Model (HDSAM) and Results
to Hydrogen to Hydrogen Delivery Scenario Analysis Model (HDSAM) and Results May 8, 2007 Amgad Elgowainy Argonne National Laboratory Comparison of Delivery Pathways- V1.0 vs. V2.0 2 1 3 i delivery by a Loading, the plant Version 1.0 character zed components for 3 pathways with single mode. conditioning and storage are at or adjacent to Liquid Hydrogen (LH) Truck H2 Production 100 or 1500 kg/d Compressed H2 (CH) Truck H2 Production 3 or 7 kpsi 100 or 1500 kg/d H2 Production Gaseous H2 Pipeline 100 or 1500 kg/d HDSAM V1.0 Estimates Delivery Cost for 3 Pathways 4 H2 H2 1 2 3 H2 Distribution and Ci I. Liquid H2 Distribution: HDSAM V2.0 Simulates Nine Pathways Production Production LH Terminal LH Terminal Production LH Terminal Transmission Transmission Distribution
Using HyTrans to Study H2 Transition Scenarios
Using HyTrans Using HyTrans to Study H2 Transition Scenarios David Greene & Paul Leiby Oak Ridge National Laboratory Elzbieta Tworek Univ. of Tennessee & StrataG David Bowman Consultant DOE Hydrogen Transition Analysis Workshop January 26, 2006 Washington, DC OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORY U. S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY We will try to cover 4 topics in ½ hour because what we want is your input. 1. What is HyTrans? 2. What can it do? 1. Previous analyses 2. Initial early transition runs 3. What improvements are needed for realistic early transition analysis? 4. How will we interface with NREL's detailed GIS analyses? OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORY U. S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY 1. What is HyTrans? OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORY U. S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY HyTrans is a national (regional) model of the market
Stage 3a: Developing BAU Scenario | Open Energy Information
source source History View New Pages Recent Changes All Special Pages Semantic Search/Querying Get Involved Help Apps Datasets Community Login | Sign Up Search Page Edit History Facebook icon Twitter icon » Stage 3a: Developing BAU Scenario Jump to: navigation, search Stage 3 LEDS Home Introduction to Framework Assess current country plans, policies, practices, and capacities Develop_BAU Stage 4: Prioritizing and Planning for Actions Begin execution of implementation plans 1.0. Organizing the LEDS Process 1.1. Institutional Structure for LEDS 1.2. Workplan to Develop the LEDS 1.3. Roles and responsibilities to develop LEDS 2.1. Assess current country plans, policies, practices, and capacities 2.2. Compile lessons learned and good practices from ongoing and previous sustainable development efforts in the country
Recent progress in scenario development for the WIPP
The US Department of Energy (DOE) is preparing to request the US Environmental Protection Agency to certify compliance with the radioactive waste disposal standards found in 40 CFR Part 191 for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). The DOE will also need to demonstrate compliance with a number of other State and Federal standards and, in particular, the Land Disposal Restrictions of the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA), 40 CFR Part 268. Demonstrating compliance with these regulations requires an assessment of the long-term performance of the WIPP disposal system. Re-evaluation and extension of past scenario development for the WIPP forms an integral part of the ongoing performance assessment (PA) process.
Galson, D.A. [Galson Sciences Limited, Oakham, Rutland (United Kingdom); Swift, P.N. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States)
Scenarios for the ATF2 Ultra-Low Betas Proposal
The current ATF2 Ultra-Low beta proposal was designed to achieve 20nm vertical IP beam size without considering the multipolar components of the FD magnets. In this paper we describe different scenarios that avoid the detrimental effect of these multipolar errors to the beam size at the interaction point (IP). The simplest approach consists in modifying the optics, but other solutions are studied as the introduction of super-conducting wigglers to reduce the emittance or the replacement of the normal-conducting focusing quadrupole in the Final Doublet (NC-QF1FF) with a super-conducting quadrupole one (SC-QF1FF). These are fully addressed in the paper.
Marin, Eduardo; /CERN; Tomas, Rogelio; /CERN; Bambade, Philip; /Orsay, LAL; Kuroda, Shigeru; /KEK, Tsukuba; Okugi, Toshiyuki; /KEK, Tsukuba; Tauchi, Toshiaki; /KEK, Tsukuba; Terunuma, Nobuhiro; /KEK, Tsukuba; Urakawa, Junji; /KEK, Tsukuba; Parker, Brett; /Brookhaven; Seryi, Andrei; /SLAC; White, Glen; /SLAC; Woodley, Mark; /SLAC
Review of potential EGS sites and possible EGS demonstration scenarios
Review of potential sites for Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) and development of reference scenarios for EGS demonstration projects are two sub-tasks included in the FY 1999 EGS Research and Development (R&D) Management Task (DOE Task Order Number DE-AT07-99ID60365, included in the Appendix of this report). These sub-tasks are consistent with the EGS Strategic Plan, which includes milestones relating to EGS site selection (Milestone 4, to be completed in 2004) and development of a cost-shared, pilot-scale demonstration project (Milestone 5, to be completed in 2008). The purpose of the present work is to provide some reference points for discussing what type of EGS projects might be undertaken, where they might be located, and what the associated benefits are likely to be. The review of potential EGS sites is presented in Chapter 2 of this report. It draws upon site-selection criteria (and potential project sites that were identified using those criteria) developed at a mini-workshop held at the April 1998 DOE Geothermal Program Review to discuss EGS R&D issues. The criteria and the sites were the focus of a paper presented at the 4th International Hot Dry Rock Forum in Strasbourg in September 1998 (Sass and Robertson-Tait, 1998). The selection criteria, project sites and possible EGS developments discussed in the workshop and paper are described in more detail herein. Input from geothermal operators is incorporated, and water availability and transmission-line access are emphasized. The reference scenarios for EGS demonstration projects are presented in Chapter 3. Three alternative scenarios are discussed: (1) a stand-alone demonstration plant in an area with no existing geothermal development; (2) a separate generating facility adjacent to an existing geothermal development; and (3) an EGS project that supplies an existing geothermal power plant with additional generating capacity. Furthermore, information potentially useful to DOE in framing solicitations and selecting projects for funding is discussed objectively. Although defined as separate sub-tasks, the EGS site review and reference scenarios are closely related. The incremental approach to EGS development that has recently been adopted could logically be expected to yield proposals for studies that lead up to and include production-enhancement experiments in producing geothermal fields in the very near future. However, the strategic plan clearly calls for the development of a more comprehensive demonstration project that can generate up to perhaps 10 MW (gross). It is anticipated that a series of small-scale experiments will define what realistically may be achieved in the near future, thus setting the stage for a successful pilot demonstration. This report continues the process of presenting information on EGS sites and experiments, and begins the process of defining what a demonstration project might be.
Mode Conversion Heating Scenarios for the National Compact Stellarator Experiment
Radio-frequency heating scenarios for the National Compact Stellarator eXperiment (NCSX) are considered. The focus here is on mode conversion from the fast to the slow ion Bernstein wave as either an electron or ''bulk'' ion heating technique, using a high-field side launch to directly access the ion-ion hybrid layer. Modeling for the planned parameters of NCSX [R(subscript ave) {approximately} 1.4 m, a(subscript ave) {approximately} 0.4 m, B(subscript T)(0) {approximately} 1.2-2 T, n(subscript e)(0) {approximately} 2-5 x 10(superscript19) m(superscript -3), T(subscript e)(0) {approximately} T(subscript i)(0) {approximately} 1-2 keV] for mode conversion in D-H and D-3He plasmas is presented. Possible types of high-field side antennas are also briefly discussed.
Majeski, R.; Wilson, J.R.; and Zarnstorff, M.
The LHCb Muon detector commissioning and first running scenarios
The LHCb muon detector, part of the first LHCb trigger level (L0), has been built to provide a fast and efficient identification of the muons produced in pp collisions at the LHC. The expected performances are: 95% L0 trigger efficiency within a 25 ns time window and muon identification in L0 with a Pr resolution of 20%. The detector has been built using Multi-Wire Proportional Chambers and Gas Electron Multiplier technology. The chambers are arranged in five stations, interspersed with iron filter placed along the beam pipe. The results obtained in the commissioning of all the installed chambers and the measured performances are presented. The strategies foreseen for the detector calibration, the results of the space and time alignment efforts and few first running scenarios are discussed.
Furcas, S
FCT Systems Analysis: DOE 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis Meeting: August 9-10,
August 9-10, 2006 to someone by E-mail August 9-10, 2006 to someone by E-mail Share FCT Systems Analysis: DOE 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis Meeting: August 9-10, 2006 on Facebook Tweet about FCT Systems Analysis: DOE 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis Meeting: August 9-10, 2006 on Twitter Bookmark FCT Systems Analysis: DOE 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis Meeting: August 9-10, 2006 on Google Bookmark FCT Systems Analysis: DOE 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis Meeting: August 9-10, 2006 on Delicious Rank FCT Systems Analysis: DOE 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis Meeting: August 9-10, 2006 on Digg Find More places to share FCT Systems Analysis: DOE 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis Meeting: August 9-10, 2006 on AddThis.com... Home Analysis Methodologies DOE H2A Analysis Scenario Analysis Quick Links Hydrogen Production Hydrogen Delivery
Transmission probabilities and the Miller-Good transformation
Transmission through a potential barrier, and the related issue of particle production from a parametric resonance, are topics of considerable general interest in quantum physics. The authors have developed a rather general bound on quantum transmission probabilities, and recently applied it to bounding the greybody factors of a Schwarzschild black hole. In the current article we take a different tack -- we use the Miller-Good transformation (which maps an initial Schrodinger equation to a final Schrodinger equation for a different potential) to significantly generalize the previous bound.
Petarpa Boonserm; Matt Visser
Entropy, Entanglement, and Transition Probabilities in Neutrino Oscillations
We show that the phenomenon of flavor oscillations can be described in terms of entangled flavor states belonging to the classes of Bell and W states. We analyze bipartite and multipartite flavor entanglements as measured by the reduced linear entropies of all possible bipartitions. Such entanglement monotones are found to be essentially equivalent to the flavor transition probabilities, that are experimentally accessible quantities. Therefore entanglement acquires a novel, operational physical characterization in the arena of elementary particle physics. We discuss in detail the fundamental cases of two- and three-flavor neutrino oscillations.
Blasone, Massimo; De Siena, Silvio; Illuminati, Fabrizio
Reduced Probabilities of E2-Transitions in {sup 174}Yb
This paper describes the ground (gr) and exited states of even-even deformed nuclei with a phenomenological model, which takes into account the mixing of gr states, 0{sub n}{sup +}({beta}{sub n})-, 2{sub n}{sup +}({gamma}{sub n})- and {Kappa}{sup {pi}} 1{sub n}{sup +}- rotational bands. The calculation has been done for the isotope Yb. The energy spectra are found to be consistent with the energies from experimental data. The reduced probabilities of the electric quadrupole E2-transitions from {beta}{sub n} and {gamma}{sub n} band states are calculated and agree quite well with the experimental values.
Okhunov, A. A. [Quantum Science Center Department of Physics, University of Malaya, 50603 Kuala Lumpur (Malaysia); Institute for Nuclear Physics, Academy Science of Uzbekistan, 100214 Tashkent (Uzbekistan); Kassim, Hasan Abu [Quantum Science Center Department of Physics, University of Malaya, 50603 Kuala Lumpur (Malaysia)
Simplifying Probability Elicitation and Uncertainty Modeling in Bayesian Networks
In this paper we contribute two methods that simplify the demands of knowledge elicitation for particular types of Bayesian networks. The ?rst method simplify the task of providing probabilities when the states that a random variable takes can be described by a new, fully ordered state set in which a state implies all the preceding states. The second method leverages Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence to provide a way for the expert to express the degree of ignorance that they feel about the estimates being provided.
Paulson, Patrick R.; Carroll, Thomas E.; Sivaraman, Chitra; Neorr, Peter A.; Unwin, Stephen D.; Hossain, Shamina S.
During 1999, the U.S. Department of Energy, in conjunction with its nuclear laboratories, a national steering committee, and a panel of world experts, developed a roadmap for research, development, demonstration, and deployment of Accelerator-driven Transmutation of Waste (ATW). The ATW concept that was examined in this roadmap study was based on that developed at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) during the 1990s. The reference deployment scenario in the Roadmap was developed to treat 86,300 tn (metric tonnes initial heavy metal) of spent nuclear fuel that will accumulate through 2035 from existing U.S. nuclear power plants (without license extensions). The disposition of this spent nuclear reactor fuel is an issue of national importance, as is disposition of spent fuel in other nations. The U.S. program for the disposition of this once-through fuel is focused to characterize a candidate site at Yucca Mountain, Nevada for a geological repository for spent fuel and high-level waste. The ATW concept is being examined in the U.S. because removal of plutonium minor actinides, and two very long-lived isotopes from the spent fuel can achieve some important objectives. These objectives include near-elimination of plutonium, reduction of the inventory and mobility of long-lived radionuclides in the repository, and use of the remaining energy content of the spent fuel to produce power. The long-lived radionuclides iodine and technetium have roughly one million year half-lives, and they are candidates for transport into the environment via movement of ground water. The scientists and engineers who contributed to the Roadmap Study determined that the ATW is affordable, doable, and its deployment would support all the objectives. We report the status of the U.S. ATW program describe baseline and alternate technologies, and discuss deployment scenarios to support the existing U.S. nuclear capability and/or future growth with a variety of new fuel cycles.
A Quantum Probability Explanation in Fock Space for Borderline Contradictions
The construction of a consistent theory for structuring and representing how concepts combine and interact is one of the main challenges for the scholars involved in cognitive studies. All traditional approaches are still facing serious hindrances when dealing with combinations of concepts and concept vagueness. One of the main consequences of these difficulties is the existence of borderline cases which is hardly explainable from the point of view of classical (fuzzy set) logic and probability theory. Resting on a quantum-theoretic approach which successfully models conjunctions and disjuncions of two concepts, we propound a quantum probability model in Fock space which faithfully reproduces the experimental data collected by Alxatib and Pelletier (2011) on borderline contradictions. Our model allows one to explain the occurrence of the latter contradictions in terms of genuine quantum effects, such as contextuality, superposition, interference and emergence. In particular, we claim that it is the specific mechanism of `emergence of a new concept' that is responsible of these deviations from classical logical thinking in the cognitive studies on human thought. This result seems to be compatible with a recent interesting application of quantum probabilistic modeling in the study of borderline vagueness (Blutner, Pothos & Bruza, 2012), and analogies and differences with it are sketched here.
Sandro Sozzo
Measurement of the Fusion Probability, PCN, for Hot Fusion Reactions
Background: The cross section for forming a heavy evaporation residue in fusion reactions depends on the capture cross section, the fusion probability, PCN, i.e., the probability that the projectile-target system will evolve inside the fission saddle point to form a completely fused system rather than re-separating (quasifission), and the survival of the completely fused system against fission. PCN is the least known of these quantities. Purpose: To measure PCN for the reaction of 101.2 MeV 18O, 147.3 MeV 26Mg, 170.9 MeV 30Si and 195.3 MeV 36S with 197Au. Methods: We measured the fission fragment angular distributions for these reactions and used the formalism of Back to deduce the fusion-fission and quasifission cross sections. From these quantities we deduced PCN for each reaction. Results: The values of PCN for the reaction of 101.2 MeV 18O, 147.3 MeV 26Mg, 170.9 MeV 30Si and 195.3 MeV 36S with 197Au are 0.66, 1.00, 0.06, 0.13, respectively. Conclusions: The new measured values of PCN agree roughly with the semi-empirical system- atic dependence of PCN upon fissility for excited nuclei.
R. Yanez; W. Loveland; J. S. Barrett; L. Yao; B. B. Back; S. Zhu; T. L. Khoo
Probability density function transformation using seeded localized averaging
Seeded Localized Averaging (SLA) is a spectrum acquisition method that averages pulse-heights in dynamic windows. SLA sharpens peaks in the acquired spectra. This work investigates the transformation of the original probability density function (PDF) in the process of applying SLA procedure. We derive an analytical expression for the resulting probability density function after an application of SLA. In addition, we prove the following properties: 1) for symmetric distributions, SLA preserves both the mean and symmetry. 2) for uni-modal symmetric distributions, SLA reduces variance, sharpening the distributions peak. Our results are the first to prove these properties, reinforcing past experimental observations. Specifically, our results imply that in the typical case of a spectral peak with Gaussian PDF the full width at half maximum (FWHM) of the transformed peak becomes narrower even with averaging of only two pulse-heights. While the Gaussian shape is no longer preserved, our results include an analytical expression for the resulting distribution. Examples of the transformation of other PDFs are presented. (authors)
Dimitrov, N. B. [Operations Research Dept., Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA 93943 (United States); Jordanov, V. T. [Yantel, LLC, Santa Fe, NM 87508 (United States)
Fuzzy rule-based modeling of vapor cloud explosion probabilities
Estimating the frequency of accidents in nonreactor nuclear facilities is difficult because quantitative reliability data are lacking for many critical items. Because data are often lacking, the risk analysis relies on [open quotes]expert judgment[close quotes] or [open quotes]engineering judgment.[close quotes] This paper presents an alternative to the ad hoc use of engineering judgment in risk analysis. This alternative is fuzzy rule-based modeling. The fundamental principle of fuzzy rule-based modeling is that qualitative knowledge, which is the basis of engineering judgment, is valid knowledge. The intent of fuzzy rule-based modeling is to make better, systematic use of qualitative knowledge. The method is related to expert system technology. The basic concepts of fuzzy rule-based modeling, as applied to consequence modeling, have been discussed previously. This paper examines the application of these methods to the problem of estimating probabilities. The study considers a particular application, determining the probability of a deflagration-to-detonation transition in a vapor cloud.
Kubic, W.L. Jr. (Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States))
power outages, encompassing the risks, consequences, and costs of such outages. Key words: electric the risk of 3DRAFT #12;power outages and for the construction of scenarios that explore economic costs in recent years. From 1990 through 1994 the proportion of Canadian outages with zero MW loss was never more
Wang, Hai
As part of an ongoing study to evaluate the discontinuity in the corrosion controls at the SRS tank farm, a study was conducted this year to assess the minimum concentrations below 1 molar nitrate, see Figure 1. Current controls on the tank farm solution chemistry are in place to prevent the initiation and propagation of pitting and stress corrosion cracking in the primary steel waste tanks. The controls are based upon a series of experiments performed with simulated solutions on materials used for construction of the tanks, namely ASTM A537 carbon steel (A537). During FY09, an experimental program was undertaken to investigate the risk associated with reducing the minimum molar nitrite concentration required to confidently inhibit pitting in dilute solutions (i.e., less than 1 molar nitrate). The experimental results and conclusions herein provide a statistical basis to quantify the probability of pitting for the tank wall exposed to various solutions with dilute concentrations of nitrate and nitrite. Understanding the probability for pitting will allow the facility to make tank-specific risk-based decisions for chemistry control. Based on previous electrochemical testing, a statistical test matrix was developed to refine and solidify the application of the statistical mixture/amount model to corrosion of A537 steel. A mixture/amount model was identified based on statistical analysis of recent and historically collected electrochemical data. This model provides a more complex relationship between the nitrate and nitrite concentrations and the probability of pitting than is represented by the model underlying the current chemistry control program, and its use may provide a technical basis for the utilization of less nitrite to inhibit pitting at concentrations below 1 molar nitrate. FY09 results fit within the mixture/amount model, and further refine the nitrate regime in which the model is applicable. The combination of visual observations and cyclic potentiodynamic polarization scans indicates a potential for significant inhibitor reductions at nitrate concentrations near 1.0 M without a significant increase in corrosion risk. The complete data sets from FY08 and FY09 testing have determined the statistical basis to confidently inhibit against pitting using nitrite inhibition with the current pH controls. Future testing will complete the spectrum of nitrate concentrations around 1 molar. These results will be combined to provide a complete spectrum for corrosion controls with a risk based component.
Hoffman, E.; Edwards, T.
The benefits of the Department of Energy's research and development (R&D) efforts have historically been estimated under business-as-usual market and policy conditions. In recognition of the insurance value of R&D, however, the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) and the Office of Fossil Energy (FE) have been exploring options for evaluating the benefits of their R&D programs under an array of alternative futures. More specifically, an FE-EERE Scenarios Working Group (the Working Group) has proposed to EERE and FE staff the application of an initial set of three scenarios for use in the Working Group's upcoming analyses: (1) a Reference Case Scenario, (2) a High Fuel Price Scenario, which includes heightened natural gas and oil prices, and (3) a Carbon Cap-and-Trade Scenario. The immediate goal is to use these scenarios to conduct a pilot analysis of the benefits of EERE and FE R&D efforts. In this report, the two alternative scenarios being considered by EERE and FE staff--carbon cap-and-trade and high fuel prices--are compared to other scenarios used by energy analysts and utility planners. The report also briefly evaluates the past accuracy of fossil fuel price forecasts. We find that the natural gas prices through 2025 proposed in the FE-EERE Scenarios Working Group's High Fuel Price Scenario appear to be reasonable based on current natural gas prices and other externally generated gas price forecasts and scenarios. If anything, an even more extreme gas price scenario might be considered. The price escalation from 2025 to 2050 within the proposed High Fuel Price Scenario is harder to evaluate, primarily because few existing forecasts or scenarios extend beyond 2025, but, at first blush, it also appears reasonable. Similarly, we find that the oil prices originally proposed by the Working Group in the High Fuel Price Scenario appear to be reasonable, if not conservative, based on: (1) the current forward market for oil, (2) current oil prices, (3) externally generated oil price forecasts, and (4) the historical difficulty in accurately forecasting oil prices. Overall, a spread between the FE-EERE High Oil Price and Reference scenarios of well over $8/bbl is supported by the literature. We conclude that a wide range of carbon regulation scenarios are possible, especially within the time frame considered by EERE and FE (through 2050). The Working Group's Carbon Cap-and-Trade Scenario is found to be less aggressive than many Kyoto-style targets that have been analyzed, and similar in magnitude to the proposed Climate Stewardship Act. The proposed scenario is more aggressive than some other scenarios found in the literature, however, and ignores carbon banking and offsets and does not allow nuclear power to expand. We are therefore somewhat concerned that the stringency of the proposed carbon regulation scenario in the 2010 to 2025 period will lead to a particularly high estimated cost of carbon reduction. As described in more detail later, we encourage some flexibility in the Working Group's ultimate implementation of the Carbon Cap-and-Trade Scenario. We conclude by identifying additional scenarios that might be considered in future analyses, describing a concern with the proposed specification of the High Fuel Price Scenario, and highlighting the possible difficulty of implementing extreme scenarios with current energy modeling tools.
ANL-78-XX-95 Energy Level Structure and Transition Probabilities
j j ANL-78-XX-95 Energy Level Structure and Transition Probabilities in the Spectra of the Trivalent Lanthanides in LaF- W. T. Carnal! Chemistry Division Argonne National Laboratory Hannah Crosswhite and H. M. Crosswhite Department of Physics The Johns Hopkins University - N O T I C E - Thi* report w u prepared u an account of work sponsored by the United Slates Covemment. Neither the United State* nor ih* United States Department of Energy, nor any of their employees, nor *ny of their contractors, nbcontradon, or their employees, mikes any w i n i n t y , expreis ot implied, or aitumei any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completenea or tisefulrten of any information, apparatus, product or procen disclosed, or represent! that its tat would not infringe privately owned rights.
How to Determine the Probability of the Higgs Boson Detection
The Higgs boson is the most important, though yet undiscovered ingredient of the standard model of particle physics. Its detection is therefore one of the most important goals of high energy physics that can guide future research in theoretical physics. Enormous efforts have been undertaken to prove the existence of the Higgs boson, and the physics community is excitedly awaiting the restart of the Large Hadron Collider at CERN. But how sure can we be that the Higgs exits at all? The German philosopher Immanuel Kant recommended betting at such controversial questions, and Stephen Hawking announced a $100 bet against the Higgs. But seriously, online prediction markets, which are a generalized form of betting, do provide the best possible probability estimates for future events. It is proposed that the scientific community uses this platforms for evaluation. See also an online description www.Bet-On-The-Higgs.com.
Alexander Unzicker
Negative Quasi-Probability as a Resource for Quantum Computation
A central problem in quantum information is to determine the minimal physical resources that are required for quantum computational speedup and, in particular, for fault-tolerant quantum computation. We establish a remarkable connection between the potential for quantum speed-up and the onset of negative values in a distinguished quasi-probability representation, a discrete analog of the Wigner function for quantum systems of odd dimension. This connection allows us to resolve an open question on the existence of bound states for magic-state distillation: we prove that there exist mixed states outside the convex hull of stabilizer states that cannot be distilled to non-stabilizer target states using stabilizer operations. We also provide an efficient simulation protocol for Clifford circuits that extends to a large class of mixed states, including bound universal states.
Victor Veitch; Christopher Ferrie; David Gross; Joseph Emerson
Scenarios for Benefits Analysis of Energy Research, Development,Demonstration and Deployment
For at least the last decade, evaluation of the benefits of research, development, demonstration, and deployment (RD3) by the U.S. Department of Energy has been conducted using deterministic forecasts that unrealistically presume we can precisely foresee our future 10, 25,or even 50 years hence. This effort tries, in a modest way, to begin a process of recognition that the reality of our energy future is rather one rife with uncertainty. The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is used by the Department of Energy's Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EE) and Fossil Energy (FE) for their RD3 benefits evaluation. In order to begin scoping out the uncertainty in these deterministic forecasts, EE and FE designed two futures that differ significantly from the basic NEMS forecast. A High Fuel Price Scenario and a Carbon Cap Scenario were envisioned to forecast alternative futures and the associated benefits. Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) implemented these scenarios into its version of NEMS,NEMS-LBNL, in late 2004, and the Energy Information Agency created six scenarios for FE in early 2005. The creation and implementation of the EE-FE scenarios are explained in this report. Both a Carbon Cap Scenario and a High Fuel Price Scenarios were implemented into the NEMS-LBNL. EIA subsequently modeled similar scenarios using NEMS. While the EIA and LBNL implementations were in some ways rather different, their forecasts do not significantly diverge. Compared to the Reference Scenario, the High Fuel Price Scenario reduces energy consumption by 4 percent in 2025, while in the EIA fuel price scenario (known as Scenario 4) reduction from its corresponding reference scenario (known as Scenario 0) in 2025 is marginal. Nonetheless, the 4 percent demand reduction does not lead to other cascading effects that would significantly differentiate the two scenarios. The LBNL and EIA carbon scenarios were mostly identical. The only major difference was that LBNL started working with the AEO 2004NEMS code and EIA was using AEO 2005 NEMS code. Unlike the High Price Scenario the Carbon Cap scenario gives a radically different forecast than the Reference Scenario. NEMS-LBNL proved that it can handle these alternative scenarios. However, results are price inelastic (for both oil and natural gas prices) within the price range evaluated. Perhaps even higher price paths would lead to a distinctly different forecast than the Reference Scenario. On the other hand, the Carbon Cap Scenario behaves more like an alternative future. The future in the Carbon Cap Scenario has higher electricity prices, reduced driving, more renewable capacity, and reduced energy consumption. The next step for this work is to evaluate the EE benefits under each of the three scenarios. Comparing those three sets of predicted benefits will indicate how much uncertainty is inherent within this sort of deterministic forecasting.
Gumerman, Etan; Marnay, Chris
Preliminary analyses of scenarios for potential human interference for repositories in three salt formations
Preliminary analyses of scenarios for human interference with the performance of a radioactive waste repository in a deep salt formation are presented. The following scenarios are analyzed: (1) the U-Tube Connection Scenario involving multiple connections between the repository and the overlying aquifer system; (2) the Single Borehole Intrusion Scenario involving penetration of the repository by an exploratory borehole that simultaneously connects the repository with overlying and underlying aquifers; and (3) the Pressure Release Scenario involving inflow of water to saturate any void space in the repository prior to creep closure with subsequent release under near lithostatic pressures following creep closure. The methodology to evaluate repository performance in these scenarios is described and this methodology is applied to reference systems in three candidate formations: bedded salt in the Palo Duro Basin, Texas; bedded salt in the Paradox Basin, Utah; and the Richton Salt Dome, Mississippi, of the Gulf Coast Salt Dome Basin.
Technology and Greenhouse Gas Emissions: An IntegratedScenario Analysis
This report describes an analysis of possible technology-based scenarios for the U.S. energy system that would result in both carbon savings and net economic benefits. We use a modified version of the Energy Information Administration's National Energy Modeling System (LBNL-NEMS) to assess the potential energy, carbon, and bill savings from a portfolio of carbon saving options. This analysis is based on technology resource potentials estimated in previous bottom-up studies, but it uses the integrated LBNL-NEMS framework to assess interactions and synergies among these options. The analysis in this paper builds on previous estimates of possible "technology paths" to investigate four major components of an aggressive greenhouse gas reduction strategy: (1) the large scale implementation of demand-side efficiency, comparable in scale to that presented in two recent policy studies on this topic; (2) a variety of "alternative" electricity supply-side options, including biomass cofiring, extension of the renewable production tax credit for wind, increased industrial cogeneration, and hydropower refurbishment. (3) the economic retirement of older and less efficient existing fossil-find power plants; and (4) a permit charge of $23 per metric ton of carbon (1996 $/t),l assuming that carbon trading is implemented in the US, and that the carbon permit charge equilibrates at this level. This level of carbon permit charge, as discussed later in the report, is in the likely range for the Clinton Administration's position on this topic.
Koomey, J.G.; Latiner, S.; Markel, R.J.; Marnay, C.; Richey, R.C.
the Base case scenario. The Xcel/PSCo 2004 IRP applied four$49.21 tax. In Colorado, Xcel/PSCo�s 2004 IRP estimated the
China's sustainable energy future: Scenarios of energy and carbon emissions (Summary)
energy use. China�s Sustainable Energy Future Summary next31 -ii- China�s Sustainable Energy Future Executive Summarystudy, entitled China�s Sustainable Energy Future: Scenarios
The Reality and Future Scenarios of Commercial Building Energy Consumption in China
and Economic Policy Sustainable Energy Development Research,The China Sustainable Energy Program, Energy Foundation [8]Zhu,Y. , 2003. China�s Sustainable Energy Scenarios in 2020,
Zhou, Nan
Development of Digital Mock-Up for the Assessment of Dismantling Scenarios
As the number of superannuated research reactors and nuclear power plants increase, dismantling nuclear power facilities has become a big issue. However, decommissioning a nuclear facility is still a costly and possibly hazardous task. So prior to an actual decommission, what should be done foremost is to establish a proper procedure. Due to the fact that a significant difference in cost, exposure to a radiation, and safety might occur, a proper procedure is imperative for the entire engineering process. The purpose of this paper is to develop a system for evaluating the decommissioning scenarios logically and systematically. So a digital mockup system with functions such as a dismantling schedule, decommissioning costs, wastes, worker's exposure dose, and a radiation distribution was developed. Also on the basis of the quantitative information calculated from a DMU system and the data evaluated by decommissioning experts about qualitatively evaluating the items, the best decommissioning scenarios were established by using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method. Finally, the DMU was implemented in the thermal column of KRR-1 and adequate scenarios were provided after comparing and analyzing the two scenarios. In this paper, we developed the virtual environment of KRR-1 by using computer graphic technology and simulating the dismantling processes. The data-computing modules were also developed for quantitatively comparing the decommissioning scenarios. The decommissioning DMU system was integrated with both the VE system and the data-computing modules. In addition, we presented a decision-making method for selecting the best decommissioning scenario through the AHP. So the scenarios can be evaluated logically and quantitatively through the decommissioning DMU. As an implementation of the AHP, the plasma cutting scenario and the nibbler cutting scenario of the thermal column were prioritized. The fact that the plasma cutting scenario ranked the better than the nibbler cutting scenario is that the plasma scenario mostly got the higher scores than the nibbler scenario in the decommissioning cost and safety sections that have high weighting factors. Finally we decided that the plasma cutting scenario is appropriate to dismantle the thermal column. This study has a great meaning in that it can present a reliable scenario through the decommissioning DMU system while this work had only been done through a subjective evaluation in the past. The DMU system will be applied to the KRR-1 decommissioning project to obtain the best scenarios. We believe it will be a useful engineering tool for other nuclear facility decommissioning.
Kim, Sung-Kyun; Park, Hee-Sung; Lee, Kune-Woo; Jung, Chong-Hun [150, Dukjin-Dong, Yuseong-Gu, Daejeon, 305-353 (Korea, Republic of)
Scenarios for Benefits Analysis of Energy Research, Development, Demonstration and Deployment
18 Figure 7 Total Non-Renewable Energy24 Figure 17 Total Non-Renewable EnergyFigure 31 Total Non-Renewable Energy Expenses in Scenarios
Numerical test of the Gribov-Zwanziger scenario in Landau gauge
We review the status of lattice simulations of gluon and ghost propagators in Landau gauge, testing predictions of the Gribov-Zwanziger confinement scenario.
Attilio Cucchieri; Tereza Mendes
Oil Prices.of Figures and Tables Figure 1. World Oil Price Trajectory31 Figure 27 World Oil Price in Scenarios 0, 4 and
Hydrogen Delivery Model for H2A Analysis: A Spreadsheet Model For Hydrogen Delivery Scenarios
FINAL REPORT HYDROGEN DELIVERY MODEL FOR H2AA SPREADSHEET MODEL FOR HYDROGEN DELIVERY SCENARIOS Joan M.Department of Energy Hydrogen, Fuel Cells and Infrastructure
Ogden, Joan
Hydrogen Delivery Model for H2A Analysis: A Spreadsheet Model for Hydrogen Delivery Scenarios
Ogden, Joan M
Energy Laboratory. Natural Gas Price Scenarios Amongvolatile-priced. 4 Future natural gas prices are also highlysection we benchmark the natural gas prices contained in the
Report on a workshop on transportation-accident scenarios involving spent fuel
Much confusion and skepticism resulted from the scenarios for transportation accidents involving spent fuel that have been presented in environmental impact statements because the supporting assumptions and conclusions from the scenarios did not always appear to be consistent. As a result, the Transportation Technology Center gathered a group whose participants were experts in disciplines related to the transport of spent fuel to consider the scenarios. The group made a number of recommendations about scenario development and about areas in need of further study. This report documents the discussions held and the recommendations and conclusi