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Only in America
February 22, 2007 by TMO
By Bob Wood
Watch now, here comes another "bearish" article from the guy who seems unaware that domestic stock markets have reached new, all-time highs, despite his exhortations of why that should not be happening! I know, it looks bad, doesn't it?
And it would be bad without my equally enthusiastic calls for investing heavily in foreign markets and also in commodities that have fared far better than those ever-climbing Dow and S&P 500 shares. So as wrong as I have been on domestic markets, I have been even more right about international markets, which are also rising to new highs.
Actually, those international markets have reached new, all-time highs, while the S&P 500 still has some climbing to do. From my perspective, the Nasdaq may never again reach its previous high of over 5,000. And after factoring in inflation, domestic investors remain deeply in the red. Since the purchasing power of the dollar has fallen about 30% this decade, the S&P 500 needs to reach 2,000, just for investors to break even in real terms.
Investors in commodities like energy and gold have fared better during the same time, as have those investing in Brazil or India. Over the past five years, the basket of gold stocks represented by the gold stock index, HUI, has risen about three times faster than the seemingly strong S&P 500. The Brazilian stock market has risen about five times faster, and the Indian stock market has done even better.
So even if you had followed my "perfect portfolio" recommendation in the summer of 2003 and loaded up on the long side with international and emerging market stocks or mutual funds, offset with a short position in the domestic markets, you would have done well. My model portfolio account has been invested using this style, and it has done far better than domestic averages during the past five years.
I offer this information only to set the stage for — more bearishness! You see, I'm not the only one who thinks this way. Another portfolio manager, John Hussman, PhD, who manages the Hussman Strategic Growth Fund, offered more supporting data this past week.
Yes, I know you may be skeptical about Hussman if you have checked his performance for last year. But disregard his one bad year in this decade and read his most recent weekly message. He shows the impact of a negative return on your investment portfolio in any given year. This one-year loss, assumed as a 20% drop, relates to the potential downside risk taken by most stock market investors who assume full market risk, hoping to cash in during the big up-years occurring during bull cycles. Hussman shows how previous gains can be wiped out by just one bad year.
You can find Hussman's complete message, ''Baron Rothschild Game,'' on his web site, www.hussmanfunds.com. But here is his basic premise:
''Suppose that the dealer lays cards down, one after another. Each is an annual market return. At any time, you can call out "Baron Rothschild" and go to a defensive position, or you can gamble and get the entire market return the dealer shows next. The gain cards read, say, 15%, 20%, 25% and 30%. If you're defensive, you lag the market by 10% when the market return is a gain, but you get, say, 5% if the market return is a loss.
There is one -20% loss card. Once it appears, the game ends and everyone counts their dough, compounded.
It turns out that if the loss comes anytime before the 5th card, you're almost always ensured to beat or tie the dealer by immediately blurting out "Baron Rothschild" even before the first card is shown. For example,
20%, 20%, 20%, 5% beats 30%, 30%, 30%, -20%.
15%, 15%, 15%, 5% beats 25%, 25%, 25%, -20%.
20%, 10%, 5%, 5% beats 30%, 20%, 15%, -20%.
5%, 5%, 5%, 5% ties 15%, 15%, 15%, -20%.
You can easily prove to yourself that even for a six-year market cycle, you still generally win even if you call out "Baron Rothschild" after year two. It just doesn't pay to risk the big loss.
The point of this isn't that investors should always take a defensive stance – some market conditions are associated with very strong return/risk profiles that warrant substantial exposure to market fluctuations. The point is that the avoidance of significant losses is generally worth accepting even long periods of defensiveness.
Because of the mathematics of compounding, large losses have a disproportionate effect on cumulative returns. Remember that historically, most bear markets have not averaged 20%, but approach 30% or more. A 30% loss takes an 80% gain and turns it into a 26% gain. It's difficult to recover from such losses, which is why the recent bull market has not even put the market ahead of Treasury bills since 2000 or even 1998. So again, the point is that the avoidance of significant losses is typically worthwhile even if, like Baron Rothschild, one is defensive "too soon."
So Hussman shows exactly what many investors endured during the bear market cycle during 2000 – 2002. He argues for taking much less risk in your portfolio after achieving solid returns over a multi-year period, as you may have enjoyed while the domestic stock market climbed from early 2003 to today.
Of course, the basic fundamentals should always be your guide. History clearly shows that some times have proven better than others for stock market investors. Secular bull markets typically begin when valuations are low and interest rates are high. Bull markets end when valuations are high and rates are low, as we see now.
Sure, many people in the financial media and at the big brokers remain bullish, regardless of changes in the underlying fundamentals, which we, again, see now. Only in America can they call massive job losses at our last remaining auto makers "a good thing," since, in the long run, that action will help restore the companies' profitability. What job losses do to the prevailing wage base is ignored.
Only in the U.S. can we see another vital industry, home building, fall so dramatically while we still hear Bulls calling this nothing worrisome, since those weak sales figures surely mean that droves of buyers will soon enter the housing market in search of bargains. The fact that this country now has over 2 million vacant homes seems meaningless to them.
Note: I didn't say "unsold homes," since these are the vacant ones. Add to that number the inventory of homes still occupied but also available for sale. Comparing this to the projected number of 1.6 million home sales for 2007, I see cause for worry about the eventual impact. And then, for added color, include in this picture more than $1 trillion in adjustable rate mortgages due to reset to higher interest rates this year.
And only in America can we see an annual trade deficit of nearly $800 billion and still call it another sign of a strong economy! How does the need to borrow another $2 billion each day to pay for such reckless spending show strength?
Of course, a massive, structural demographic shift is also occurring in the U.S. The first phase of the baby boomers is now looking forward to imminent retirement. Using real accounting measures puts the Federal budget deficit for 2006 at about $4.5 trillion. That's the number we get when factoring in the assumed liabilities for increasing Social Security and Medicare costs, which were not set aside in 2006 to pay for them.
But rather than reserving that money, as any saver for retirement costs must, the Federal government led by the Bush Administration, took surplus contributions made by workers as normal operating income — and spent it all! And this is no surprise, since all previous administrations have done the same.
"No problem," they tell us, since they are not obligated to pay these promised benefits and can change the laws at any time. And don't we see that happening now, with means-testing for Medicare premiums already being instituted?
So with all these issues clouding our economy and promising severe storms in the near future, what is the outlook for retirees, the fastest growing segment of our population? Add to this the effects of our losing two very costly wars and competition from China for energy resources. And have you heard how much time Chinese leaders are spending with the leaders of Saudi Arabia?
I think you get the idea! My bearish call on domestic markets will remain in place for as long into the future as I can see. Perhaps domestic markets will rise higher without me. But my bullish calls for international markets and commodities like energy, gold, silver and food stuffs also remain in place — for just about as long. Just because I'm steadfastly bearish on domestic markets doesn't mean bull markets fail to exist elsewhere.
They do exist and always will. But getting stuck in our home markets, now selling at premium prices across the board, means increasing the potential for Hussman's ''Baron Rothschild Card.'' Sure, I may look wrong on domestic stock markets, but having been right about much stronger markets around the world has helped immensely. If you are riding the domestic markets to their new highs, check again at the fundamental picture to see if your ''Goldilocks'' is still saying "just right"!
Have a great week,
Bob Wood ChFC, CLU Yusuf Kadiwala. Registered Investment Advisors, KMA, Inc., firstname.lastname@example.com.


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6.6.2013 | Public Hearing on Proposed Regulations for Commercial Striped Bass
Public Hearing on Proposed Regulations for Commercial Striped Bass - 6 pm
Friends Meeting House
351 DuBois Road
Annapolis MD 21401
Contact Jacob.Holtz for more information.
This hearing is to receive feedback on the proposed regulations for the commercial striped bass fishery. More information on these regulations, including the proposed regulatory text, may be found at http://www.dnr.state.md.us/fisheries/regulations/proposedregulations.asp. Individual catch histories will NOT be discussed at this hearing.
Tags: Commercial, Striped Bass

subset: commoncrawl


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When I met w the Cabinet Maker I specifically asked for soft close doors and drawers. My drawers close soft but my doors don't. Would you please show me a close up of your Blum Soft Close Hinges?
Thanks! |
Follow-Up Postings:
Blum Soft Close Hinges Article with Pictures for you to look at. I will look for me until someone else replies that has these on their cabinet doors. I will be having this type of hinge also on my doors and drawers since I love the soft close feature. |
Here is a link that might be useful: Blum Soft Close Hinges Article with Pictures
Compact Version of the Blum Soft Close Hinge Article With Pictures |
Here is a link that might be useful: Compact Version of the Blum Soft Close Hinge Article With Pictures
The newer hinges for cabinet doors come with a add-on "softener", if you will, that snaps onto the existing hardware. IME a lot of cabinet guys have soft-close on the brain for drawers, but not doors. These extra features cost extra money, separately, and can easily be added later at any time. "After-market" if you will. All this presuming you have the newer Blum cabinet door hardware. Also not for the fancy, specialty 170-degree hinges and the like (there are a ton of different sorts I think). FWIW I like the soft-close hinges but I'm not sure my life is substantially better for them; I'd probably be happier with the money in my bank account than on the hinges. I'm not po'd, don't want my money back. But if I knew then what I knew now I'd skip the soft-close on the doors, quite possible even the drawers as well... though probably not there. I guess they're helpful in keeping inner contents from shifting on arrival. ;) |
- Posted by TorontoTim (My Page) on Sun, Nov 13, 11 at 9:42
Not disagree with Aliris, but to my understanding the 'new' Blum softclose hinges are in fact like the ones in the links provided earlier. No 'add-on' plunger mechanism. The softclose is built into every hinge and there are little tiny switches to turn it on / off. I have these in my kitchen, installed in May 2011 and they're great. You can choose to turn 2 of 3 hinges on for example, or all 3, or just 1 to adjust the way it closes. |
We have them throughout our nearly four year-old kitchen (they look just like the one's in lynn's 2nd pic) and I guess I like them -- I don't dislike them. I don't value them the way I value the feature on the drawers. Also, my partner has become l-a-z-y and now won't close cabs in the rest of the (non-soft close) house -- his brain expects everything to close itself, it would appear .... They're cher and if you're paying for them make sure you have them! |
methinks the blum web site has information relevant to the OP. someone might point to various places inside the blum web site. It would not surprise me to find out that the Ikea version of Blum's thingie is one version (which Ikea has "bought" factory and all), and that a web search that i might do would produce different looking images since Blum distributors sell the current version that Blum makes. It's complicated or it isn't; it depends. Another thing to keep in mind is that Blum is not the only source of sof close thingies. |
My Blum soft close thingies were gadgets that blopped onto the hinge like ALiris describes. They weren't installed until some time after the cabinets. Just ask the cabinet guy. He can either do the add on thingie or replace the hinges. |
- Posted by singingmicki (My Page) on Sun, Nov 13, 11 at 18:30
My soft close cabinet door hinges are also Blum, and a clip add on to the hinge. |
oops - sorry if I misled anyone. It seems sensible to go straight to the source, as suggested. When I had a question about hardware I talked with them directly at Blum and emailed a photo; they were very accommodating. I have to say their answer was strangely contradictory and shifting as well, but they did try. Makes you wonder ... (mine was a question about the 170-degree hinge). Moreover, my softclose hinges don't even look like what I was claiming above (geesh); they're not like yours either, with that plastic bit on the Rockler website. I think Blum makes a lot a lot a lot of hinges. |
Here are a couple of pics of the so called, Soft Close Hinges. http://i1011.photobucket.com/albums/af233/flatman/Kitchen Oct 2011/c9edc7f1.png |
There seems to be something missing from ours...can you see what it is? Could this be the problem? http://www.rockler.com/gallery.cfm?Offerings_ID=25382&r=3&TabSelect=Details |
I contacted Blum yesterdy nd sent them a picture of my hinges..Turns out that th soft close that we were given needs to be on both hinges of every door, not just one hinge in our case. Here is th email straight from Blum. Your doors should have both hinges with this soft close, �The hinge may have a cover cap to cover up the Best Regards, Blum Customer Service |
cflaherty, I am glad we all helped and finally Blum let you know that the installer is missing part of the hinge. Please let us know how this is resolved. |
turns out after looking at the list of products on our estimate the cab maker charged us for 2 SC hinges per door but only gave us one per door. the Cab maker claims that the folks he ordered the Blum hinges thru said he only needed to use one per door...I told him Blum says you need 2! This is not the only thing he has been dishonest about. He wrote down in our estimate and told me and the Contractor he was using Blum Leg Levelers..turns out he used Richielue (spl??) and made a $22 profit on each set of 4 (we think that is not only highway robbery but also dishonesty!) UGH! now we really don't trust this guy! Thank goodness we still owe him about $7,000...probably less now! I am gaining Wisdom I guess. |
Richelieu.com if you find your part number at Richelieu.com you can get its price by web searching. Blum parts too. |
cf Sorry to hear about your dishonest contractor, it is a giant leap of faith to have someone come in your home & perform related work. Even with contracts things can still go awry - You are right to not trust much of this person now - hold the $ and point out the differences in proposed work vs what he has done. In the end if he doesn't want to make it whole, you have every right to calculate what you can with hold from final payment. |
- Posted by TorontoTim (My Page) on Sun, Nov 20, 11 at 12:20
This is why I never hire contractors. I much prefer to work directly with the people doing the work. The people I finally dealt with on my custom cabinets were great - small shop in an industrial area. The guy who sold me the package also builds the cabinets with one or two other guys. One of the guys who builds the cabinets and paints them was the installer (one man installation). Always try to deal directly with the person who is going to do the actual work - you end up with better product and spend less money to boot. I'd make the contractor or cabinet maker or whoever you signed the deal with on the cabinets replace all the hinges with current technology BLUM soft close hinges - ALL of them. Or find a supplier for the BLUM hinges (Richelieu sells them here in Canada) and withhold that much from your final payment to them, plus $40 per door minimum for labor fees to replace them all. Play hardball - it's your money, it's your house, it's your deal. Hold them to every letter of the deal you signed - don't pay a penny more, and hold back on whatever they skimped on. |
The Cabinet Maker was hired by me (homeowner). Huge mistake on my part. He has been the only issue thru this entire Reno. The guy doing most of the work (ed) has been AMAZING! He even said that he would have never taken the job had he knew the cabinet guy . Ed has already lost a ton of money bc of the cab guy. I feel bad for him and he feels bad for me. Lol |
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June 17, 2008, 5:51 AM
By Rodney Cutler
Personal space is a space too often ignored by men. It contains you and, if you're lucky, another person of your choosing. Thus it should be welcoming and, occasionally, fragrant. A few rules: Apply a light, citrus-based cologne during the day and a heavy, woody cologne at night. And be conservative. A woman's sense of smell is more finely attuned than a man's. If you have oily skin, use less. If it's hot out, use less. Always, use less. The impact of a man's cologne should be only as extensive as his personal space. His "scent enthusiasm" should be between levels 1 and 3 (see below). Why cologne? Because women.
Scent Enthusiasm: A Guide
Level 4: Overeager
Commonly found: malls, Staten Island
Level 3: Moderate-Plus
Commonly found: fine restaurants
Level 2: Moderate
Commonly found: the office
Level 1: Uninterested
Commonly found: Burning Man
Level 0: Nonexistent
Commonly found: Latvian tour buses
F. Martin Ramin/Studio D
Boss Pure
Their description: Fizzy Mediterranean citrus with juicy fruit notes and water accord.
Our translation: Like a spring breeze through an oceanside grapefruit stand. And baby powder. ($65; hugoboss.com)
F. Martin Ramin/Studio D
Diesel Fuel for Life
Their description: Powdery, with notes of grapefruit, lavender, and vetiver.
Our translation: Like licorice and wood. ($60; diesel.com)
F. Martin Ramin/Studio D
Lacoste Essential
Their description: Fresh and mellow, with notes of citrus, fruit, and water.
Our translation: Like apple cider and freshly mowed lawn. ($65; lacoste.com)
F. Martin Ramin/Studio D
Polo Explorer
Their description: A fresh, woody amber, with notes of fruit and sandalwood.
Our translation: Like eating pears in the forest after a spring rain. ($68; ralphlauren.com)
Rodney Cutler is the owner of the Cutler salons in New York City and Miami, as well as an Ironman triathlete.
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The cage of addiction: Filling the emptiness with oblivion
by John MacBeath Watkins
The first time I met my cousin Mark, he tried to hit me with a truck.
It was a Tonka, so he wasn't driving it. He was about five, I was a little older
His family visited years later, when I was 13. He attacked me, we wrestled, and I demonstrated that being wiry and understanding leverage is better than being a bit bigger. He seemed to want to establish dominance rather than build a connection each time we met.
Mark went on to become a commercial fisherman who drank so heavily that his liver was a smoking ruin by the time he was in his 40s. My extended family has not been touched much by addiction, so Mark's difficulties are some of the little personal contact with addiction I have. Mark grew up in a loving family, and no others in that family have had this problem. But I wonder, in retrospect, if his aggression was part of a difficulty in connecting to people. That may have been the real problem.
A team of researchers at Simon Frasier University started exploring this problem in 1977. I was living in Seattle at the time, Mark was living in Alaska, and the research was happening in the Canadian space between us. The classic research on addiction had been done with an experiment involving rats in cages.
Rats were set up with a self-injection system and taught to use it to administer heroin to themselves. Placed in a cage with access to food, water, and heroin, most rats would administer heroin to the exclusion of eating and drinking until they died. This was the basis for the drug war, a version of addiction that said the cause of addiction is the drugs, so we can only avoid the problem of addiction by interdicting the drugs, or keeping drug addicts away from drugs.
Canadians James Olds and Peter Milner in 1954
even demonstrated
that rats would do this to get electric stimulation of their brain's pleasure centers until death overtook them.
But in 1977 lead investigator
Bruce Alexander
at Simon Frasier wondered if he'd do the same in solitary confinement with only the heroin/cocaine/electrode-in-his-brain as solace. So the Simon Frasier team tried it a different way. First, they got the rats addicted by using the now familiar form of the experiment, placing them in standard mesh cages, unable to see or touch other rats, with a choice of plain water or water laced with morphine. After 57 days, the rats were well and truly hooked.
Then, they moved half of them to
Rat Park
, a 95-square-foot facility with things to play with, space to mate and raise litters, and a generally pleasant environment with the company of 16-20 other rats.
Almost all the rats shunned the morphine water and chose to live the sort of social life rats in nature live.
This echos the experience of troops returning from Viet Nam. Something like 20% of soldiers who served in Viet Nam used heroin. When they came home, about 95% of them never used it again. No special programs, all we did was take them out of a terrifying dystopia and put them in a supportive and normal environment, surrounded by family and friends.
Which makes me wonder. I have no difficulty connecting with Mark's parents or his sisters, but I never felt I could connect with him at all. We look at the wreckage of peoples' lives associated with addiction, and we assume that correlation means causation, that addiction has brought about the wreckage. But what if it simply has the same cause as the wreckage? Mark got married, had a lovely wife and children, who in the end left him. Was the problem that alcohol wrecked the marriage, or was it that the same demons that made Mark unable to sustain the marriage were what drove him to drink?
When people get into a 12-step program, one thing it does is give them a group of people to connect to. I wonder now, looking back at the tragedy of Mark's life, if that is not the most important part of the cure. Sometimes I think of a couple who were alcoholics, and of how little comfort they seemed to take in each other or in their children, seeking dominance rather than comfort in their relationships. They were living in Rat Park, but they had built themselves a cage, and filled the emptiness with oblivion.
So, if we catch an addicts with their drugs, what do we do with them? We put them in a cage, a panopticon dystopia, separated from anyone they love.
Good luck with that.
We have a huge system built to enforce our erroneous assumptions about the nature of addiction. The system itself blights lives, and does not solve the problem. We need to find a better way.
Twice Sold Tales is one of 10 Beautiful Bookshops That Will Stop You in Your Tracks
Our Capitol Hill store made the list!
Charlie Hebdo and the war machine: Why the clash of civilizations is a lousy way to frame the problem
Illustration by al-Biruni of different phases of the moon, from
Kitab al-tafhim
. Source: Seyyed Hossein Nasr,
Islamic Science: An Illustrated Study
, London: World of Islam Festival, 1976. An illustration of the flowering of intellectual inquiry in the 10th century.
by John MacBeath Watkins
The massacre of a dozen cartoonists, staff, and police at Charlie Hebdo magazine on January 7 has awakened an old debate about how we should respond to terrorism.
Some conservatives want to revive the frame of the conflict between the West and Islam as being a "clash of civilizations," a term popularized by American political scientist Samuel Huntington. In a 1993 Foreign Affairs article, he wrote:
It is my hypothesis that the fundamental source of conflict in this new world will not be primarily ideological or primarily economic. The great divisions among humankind and the dominating source of conflict will be cultural. Nation states will remain the most powerful actors in world affairs, but the principal conflicts of global politics will occur between nations and groups of different civilizations. The clash of civilizations will dominate global politics. The fault lines between civilizations will be the battle lines of the future.[2]
Neoconservatives writers have taken this in a way Huntington did not intend, as a call to arms for Christian nations against Islam. Huntington was not advocating such a clash, just describing what he saw.
What he saw was two civilizations based on evangelizing religions that insisted that only they were right, forced into interactions by increasing globalization of the world economy.
Now, we get people like George Friedman arguing that by adopting secular governments, we have disarmed ourselves. He recently wrote:
If no one but the gunmen and their immediate supporters are responsible for the action, and all others who share their faith are guiltless, you have made a defensible moral judgment. But as a practical matter, you have paralyzed your ability to defend yourselves. It is impossible to defend against random violence and
impermissible to impose collective responsibility
. As Europe has been for so long, its moral complexity has posed for it a problem it cannot easily solve. Not all Muslims - not even most Muslims - are responsible for this.
(Emphasis added.)
Collective responsibility, however, is exactly the response the gunmen were hoping for. They claimed to represent Islam. To impose collective punishment is to promote them to the status of speaking for all Muslims, or as many as you punish. The idea of the murders was to radicalize more Muslims by provoking a reaction against all Muslims.
To treat them in this way, adopting the 'clash of civilizations' frame for their acts, is to dignify them as warriors for their faith. To treat them as the sordid murderers they were is to degrade them as mere criminals. The idea is to somehow get an outcome in which the West and the Middle East are not at war. Yet Friedman goes back to the Muslim occupation of the Iberian peninsula and the battles against the expansionist Ottoman Turks to claim that we've always been at war with
the Muslim world, or at least for a thousand years.
This framework is an invitation to another thousand years of struggle. The notion that one side can defeat the other through warfare, and bend it to its will, reflects a lack of understanding of the limits of violence as a means of persuasion.
Europe went through a reformation because Christians in the north began to feel the Catholic Church had become corrupt at the same time as northern European monarchs were chafing at the restraints the Church placed on their power. Islam had a sort of reformation, in two steps.
First, we should remember that the Muslim world was once a center of learning and science. In the 11th century, an intellectual cataclysm occurred.
His name was Abu Hamid Muhammad al-Ghazali, and he lived from 1059 to 1111. He used the tools of philosophy to undermine the use of philosophy to find truth, favoring instead the expertise of those who studied the Koran. His ideas fell on fertile soil, in an Arab world where political factionalism caused large-scale irrigation networks to collapse and the Crusades and Mongol invasions showed the limits of Muslim power. In a world where Muslims felt set upon, a doctrine of the Koran's infallibility offered greater comfort than the Greek rationalism that had informed Arab philosophy.
This was also a doctrine of intolerance when compared to the earlier flowering of Arab rationality. But the conversion was not sudden, nor was it universal. The Ottomans gained a great deal of power and respected at least the scholarship of the clerics. The next step down the road to intolerance was another sort of reformation.
A reformer named
Muhammad ibn ?Abd al-Wahhab
who lived from 1703 to 1792, accused the Ottoman sultan and his traditionalist scholars of corruption, materialism, and decadence, rejecting their tradition-based and rather moderate system of jurisprudence with a version of law that was more radical in its punishments and less discriminating in the evidence required. al-Wahhab had difficulties in his religious studies because he was arrogant and defiant, and when he began preaching, his arrogance got him into trouble.
You see, al-Wahhab denigrated certain practices as not sufficiently pure Muslim practice. Citing passages in the Koran prohibiting grave worship, he had a political ally level the grave of a companion of Mohammed,
Zayd ibn al-Khattab.
Then he had a sacred grove cut down. This created enough trouble that he had to leave town, and seek sanctuary with a rebel named
Muhammad bin Saud
. He gave religious legitimacy to Saud's rebel kingdom, now known as Saudi Arabia. This is the sort of doctrine that came to have great influence in the Sunni Muslim world.
The problem, then, is that while the West moved from religious legitimacy to a social contract concept of government, the Arab world never did. Instead, it moved to increasingly severe versions of Islam, from an open, rational system of thought where skepticism and doubt had a role in defining truth to an increasingly closed system in which doubt and skepticism were punishable by imprisonment,
, and death.
The West used to have blasphemy laws about as severe as the Wahhabist ones. In 1697, just six years before al-Wahhab was born, a Scot named Thomas Aikenhead was executed for blasphemy (he expressed atheist sentiments.) The two civilizations have been going in opposite directions for centuries..
One reason for this is that government backed by religion pretty much destroyed its own legitimacy through conflicts such as the 30-Years War and the English Civil War. How could you rule by divine right, if some large percentage of the country thought you were an apostate?
In the Middle East, the solution was for one side to beat the other and subjugate such followers of the beaten sect that remained in the conquered territory, such as the Shia Muslims in Iraq,. who long lived under Sunni rule.
In the West, the solution was a new basis for the legitimacy of governments. The concept that you needed a government to keep the peace and allow people to live their lives and build their fortunes must have seemed transparently obvious to people in places like Germany, where the population was about 2/3 as large after the 30-Years War as before it. If the sovereign ruled because the people needed a ruler, that sovereign was working for the people, not for God, which meant neither side had to win for order to be restored. But the logic of a ruler who was a servant of the people implied that rule should be by the consent of the people as well, which in turn required some means for the people to show their preference.
That required freedom to debate the matter and put it to a vote. But we have seen that when we put the question of who should rule to a vote in the Middle East, the tendency is for the winner to act as though their side had won, and the other side should be subjugated as if they had been defeated in battle. The Muslim Brotherhood ruled Egypt as though no other group's priorities mattered, Nouri al-Maliki ruled Iraq as if the priorities of the quite substantial Sunni minority didn't matter, as if they should accept being subjugated by his own Shia group. Each wanted their own group to control all aspects of government, and each failed for that reason.
The ideals of liberal democracy have considerable appeal, as we've seen in the Arab Spring, but as we saw when the optimism of that movement faded, its lessons are hard to apply where religious leaders still have great legitimacy. I fear that they must either undermine themselves through abuse of power, or find a way to represent the will of the people without subjugating those who don't agree with them.
Ali Eteraz, in an essay in The Guardian in 2007, noted that:
There is universal consensus that Muslim dictatorships, supported by the west, are the root of evil. They destroy political culture, kill extra-judicially and their repression foments violence.
The primary opponents of these dictators are the populist Islamists. They want to vote; except after voting they want to appoint an extra-constitutional body of clerics to strike down legislation they do not approve of.
And, one might add, they are not in favor of allowing people to vote for candidates who might change such arrangements.
The question is, do we help or hinder the cause of the social contract and the ideals of the liberal democracy by treating outrages like the Charlie Hebdo murders as a clash of civilizations? I suggest that to do so is to deny that there are factions within Islam, and that cultures do change. If you treat the murderers as warriors for Islam, and insist upon "collective responsibility," you cut down any green shoots of a return to rationality and freedom in the Arab world.
The Muslim world can return to its former glory by returning to those values, and we know they are compatible with Islam because they were practiced before the decline of the Muslim world. But people very often act as they think you expect them to act. Defining our interactions with Muslim culture as a clash of civilizations rather than a dialogue between them only invites more conflict.
Greetings from an obsolescent profession
by Jamie Lutton
Reflecting on Christmas presents:
It has been a few weeks, but I am still recovering from Christmas.
One problem for the used book seller is giving presents to family members. Rarely do they like books as much as you do, and so they weary of getting something cool that they know you paid 50 cents for.
My solution is to give new and used DVD's as presents. You usually know the target person's taste in movies, and so can guess at what they would like. And became there are so many good old movies and documentaries out there, there are lots to pick from, especially for young people who are not familiar with classics.
I give comedies, usually. After the crash of 2008, I gave everyone a gloomy documentary about the corruption in the stock market, called
Inside Job
, but I don't think a single one of the recipients watched it.
This year I was wiser, and stuck to comedies or action-dramas that fit the person who got them.
The problem with a DVD as a gift is that it will not with handling fall open one scene or another to tempt someone to play the thing. It has to sell itself on the packaging alone. A way to improve DVDS would be that they would play when you handled them, some blurb perhaps, to tempt you to put it in the machine. For example, I gave
How to Tame Your Dragon
, a children's fantasy movie, to my big brother this year. If the thing started talking in a Scottish accent, or roared, , it would charm the casual handler of the thing to play it. Or show the face of the Black Dragon in the movie, which was drawn and animated to strongly suggest a giant black cat with green eyes. But the gaudy packaging and the reviews are all it has to sell itself on it's own (if the recipient does not Google it).
I suppose this feature will be added to physical DVD's in a few generations of design. I do hope that film makers do not rely totally on the cloud for storing movies, because some very good films will be forgotten, if there are not physical copies around.
That is why SCARECROW VIDEO in the University District is so good. It has 120,000 videos, and you can go around and LOOK at the packages, all arranged in a library form, for rental. Sorry for the plug, but this place is the very best place I have found for locating obscure films, and is the closest thing to the feel of a used bookstore, or library, just for movies.
No other place is open anymore, anyway; Broadway Video was a close second, but it is gone now, due to lack of support, as is the video store on 15th on Capitol HIll.I went in to SCARECROW six months ago to try and find a movie I saw once when I was 13 or so, on broadcast TV, that scared the crap out of me.
I only remembered a few scenes, and the plot. That it was about a piece of the Earth being torn away - by accident, by a Scientific Experiment Gone Wrong. And one scene where the Hero and Heroine are fleeing up from under ground in an elevator, and a big timber crashes through the elevator, almost killing them. I gave a vague description to one of the guys at SCARECROW, and he thought for a moment, and told me to look at the end of the world section of the disaster movie room, and I would find it there. I look at a few packages and found the movie, rented it, and it was as good as I remembered.
Crack in the World,
made in 1965, is the name: it had very good special effects for the time, (dubbed in video of Hawaiian volcanic eruptions, etc) and good writing for this sort of film. I recalled the terror I felt seeing it as a kid. This film and
The Birds
by Hitchcock gave me a taste for well written science fiction films, which I still have today.
The video rental industry is vanishing like book stores, because 70% of all films are easy to get on NetFlix, and you can order the rest on Amazon. The trick is, and this is a big trick, what if you don't know what to rent, or read?
Many young people have never heard of many great films. They will look at you blankly when you recommend The President's Analyst (1966 comedy), or even
To Have and to Have Not
(Adaption of a Hemingway book - a Bogart film where he met Lauren Bacall, and they light up the film ). Any film made before 1977 is The Dark Ages to most people, and not visited, even on bored Saturday afternoons when channel surfing on Cable. It takes a good video store employee to suggest watching one of these old movies, or a rabid movie buff who can then take you to a (still existing) video store to rent a given old movie.
This is the same problem booksellers have. Amazon will get you
Where'd you go, Bernadette
I Feel Bad About my Neck
, recent best sellers, but it takes a bookseller to suggest you read
Down and Out in Paris and London
To my Niece on First Reading Jane Austen
, The first title is George Orwell's 'breakout' book, the second, a brilliant book, by an otherwise mediocre writer Fay Weldon. To know about these old titles, and to stock them and hold them for the months they take to sell takes patience and knowledge, and not selling books like they were quarts of milk, interchangeable.
Supporting places that stock these older titles, and even more, staff that have read books other than the current best sellers and who can tell you about them, is vanishing rapidly.
Places like NetFlix and Amazon take our customers, by stripping out the 'bestseller' sales, which support the sales of these lesser known books. This is a real pity. We are living in the platinum age of writing. More people are literate than ever before, more people are writing, yet we have fewer and fewer readers. And it is the same for film. The number of films made is growing rapidly, but fewer and fewer older films are being watched and enjoyed. Maybe 50 films made before 1977 are known to the general public, but that number is dwindling.
Most people age 25 have not seen a Humphrey Bogart movie, let alone most of them. Or a Kathrine Hepburn movie, or a Cary Grant movie. Or going even further back, a Frank Capra movie, a Hitchcock movie or a Kurosawa film. Same with older writers.
Even the incredibly well known authors suffer this. Few people read any book by Herman Melville except
Moby Dick
: when I mention
The White Jacket
by him, a book was not only popular in his lifetime, but caused such a scandal that it stopped sadistic flogging in the American Navy (a good generation before it stopped in the British one).
My supernal favorite in books are the nonfiction titles, which are particularity neglected. A best seller in nonfiction such as history from 10 years ago will be so common on the market that Amazon sells it for a penny; making it very hard to stock and sell. What with the iPhone technology, I can hold such a book up and try to sell it, and my 'wise' customer will find that it is a penny online, decide that it 'cant be any good at that price' or just buy it online, leaving my copy behind.
One problem I have that SCARECROW VIDEO does not have (?) is that I am 'showroomed' more than they are. My wise customers go around my shop taking photos of books they like, so that they can go home and order them on Amazon Prime, and ''save a few dollars."
This is very discouraging. If I quit this being a bookseller, it will be because of that practice. The insanity of using my shop to make lists to buy online, really discourages me.
I would be better off just having a shop where every book is over $20, and not carry the exciting $5 to $10 books, if that is the future of my business. And restrict my sales to online sales, to avoid the public altogether.
I want to ask the people who come into my shop to 'showroom' me about how they can live with themselves, but I suppose these are the same people who take cellphone calls while I am ringing them up. In other words, moral idiots. Well, I will let the marketplace decide, and if it 'decides' I am obsolete, I will have been driven out of the 'open shop' side of the used book trade.
Robot Workers Stoke Human Fears; how we can still win
by John MacBeath Watkins
Finally, a headline that made me feel like I was in the 21st century appeared on the print edition of Tuesday's New York Times:
Rise of Robot Workforce Stokes Human Fears
The e-version of the Times, not restricted by the character count, had a longer headline that did a better job of explaining the fears of human workers as artificial intelligence makes machines more capable, but the headline in the print edition is what a time traveler from 1950 might have expected to see above the fold on the Dec. 16, 2014 New York Times.
In some ways, the future has been late to arrive, but as Louis Althusser noted, "l'avenir dure longtemps" (usually translated as "the future lasts forever," the name of his memoir.) There is plenty of time for the future to happen, and it will arrive in unexpected ways.
Let me first tell you my solution to the automation problem, then I will explain what it means.
We have been managing our economy for a "natural" rate of unemployment and an inflation rate of 2%, with inflation defined by the core consumer price index number. We have no real empirical knowledge of what the natural rate of unemployment is, nor have we any reason to assume 2% is the proper level of CPI growth. We should be managing the economy by some objective metric.
Even the core CPI is subject to external shocks. The inflation metric we should be using is wage inflation, and we should be managing it to match productivity growth. In fact, since we have not done so for a long time, we should be managing for wage inflation higher than that until it catches up to the pre-1980 trend. This would ensure wages don't, in the long run, exceed the structural capacity of the economy, and that they don't trail so far behind it.
One of the things that makes capitalism different from previous systems of market economies is that in most of them, the workers owned their tools, and land and labor were the keys to making a living (which is why if you wanted to be wealthy, you needed to get land or a mine.) The total amount of wealth was presumed to be finite. Capitalism is a system where the tools usually don't belong to the artisan, they belong to those who accumulate and invest capital. And investing capital in technology is often a way to increase wealth, meaning that capitalism isn't a zero-sum game.
The transition from a traditional market economy to a capitalist one is not great for those who used to be the skilled artisans, which is why the invention of mechanized weaving sparked the Luddite uprisings of the early 19th century. The Luddites recognized that while weaving made cloth cheaper, and enabled most people to buy more clothing and make it a smaller part of their budget, it also meant that the weavers, once high-skilled and well-paid artisans, were surplus to requirements.
Eventually, we found things for people to do. The key was to have enough economic activity that the increased productivity does not permanently unemploy workers whose careers have been disrupted by more productive technology.
Economists used to think that there was an inverse tradeoff between inflation and unemployment, a relationship called the Phillips Curve. This was displaced in the late 1960s and 1970s by a new concept, the natural rate of unemployment, championed by Milton Friedman and Edmund Phelps.
Friedman and Phelps argued that for there to be a permanent increase in employment, something would have to change in the real economy. Essentially, he argued, the Phillips Curve relied on an illusion, and when inflation expectations for wages and prices caught up with reality, this would leave unemployment unchanged.
The problem with managing the economy for the natural rate of unemployment is, there is no established way to know what the natural rate of unemployment is. Friedman and Phelps, it would appear, moved us from managing the economy based on an illusion to managing it based on a guess.
How's that working out for us?
United States Labor Force Participation Rate by gender 1948-2011. Men are represented in light blue, women in pink, and the total in black.
Labor force participation peaked in about 1998, which is about the last time we had much in the way of wage inflation, but really, labor force participation has been stagnant or declining since about 1990. That's because wages, like any price, are a signal, in this case, a signal to come one out and get a job. Take a look at the comparison between productivity growth and average real wages:
1990 is about the time real wages for the average worker fell below the 1970 wage level, and it's been there since. Never the less, female participation in the labor force has increased, and women's wages, while they have not caught up to men's, have at least been increasing.
Here is another set of data that most people have not incorporated into their analysis:
- See more at: http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2011/06/the-great-male-stagnation.html#sthash.5cU3F6M0.dpuf
While working men's wages fell a bit from 1980 to 2012, men found it harder to get a job. As a result, the decline for income among all men has been much worse than the situation among working men.
Much of the decline in male incomes has been at the median and lower end of the distribution of education:
Data: Hamilton Project
Dyland Matthews notes about the above chart (and I recommend following the link and reading his full essay)
High school dropouts' earnings have fallen 66 percent since 1969, and people with some college - the median level of education in the US - have seen earnings fall by a third.
Now, there's a good news/bad news situation here. Men's labor force participation has been falling since the 1950s, even though through the 1950s and 1960s their wages were increasing rapidly, so what's causing their decline in labor force participation isn't the integration of women into the work force. The bad news is that their wage gains started falling about the time women's labor force participation increased.
I'm not convinced that this is a case of post hoc, ergo propter hoc. The thing is, at about the same time, we had a major recession, then started managing the economy for the unknowable natural rate of unemployment. Median male income started declining about the time productivity increases and wage increases became de-linked. That's about the time we adopted two of Milton Friedman's big ideas, managing companies for shareholder value and managing the economy for the "natural" rate of unemployment. I strongly suspect that these two ideas played a strong role in removing the link between productivity increases and wage increases.
Since incomes for men have fallen most for the least educated, the indication would be that the kinds of work available do not play to male strengths, such as upper-body strength and a willingness to take jobs with lots of heavy lifting, risk, and inclement weather, which would indicate one possible reason the male workforce participation rate has been falling since about 1950.
Teachers used to say, "you want to dig ditches for a living?" but now, to do that you have to be a heavy equipment operator, and a lot fewer of those are needed than ditch digging humans for the same size ditch. The increase in productivity is in an industry were the demand for ditches is not particularly price elastic.
While many people might say, "that's a pretty good price on shirts, I think I'll get two," few people look at a contractor's rates and say to themselves, "well, I don't really
a new ditch, but at these prices..."
More and more of those risky, physical jobs in the open air have been mechanized. Now, artificial intelligence offers the opportunity to replace humans at inside work with no heavy lifting, which will affect both genders.
This is also an opportunity for those who own capital to take more of the gains from productivity. The question is, why should they? Those weavers who became Luddites were employable, and had they had access to new skills and a hot labor market, they might not have minded so much losing their work as artisans. While the early part of the industrial revolution created great misery and inequality as the capitalists took most of the money, eventually, we figured out how to redistribute the wealth and start the great era of the middle class.
We need to give people access to new skills. Right now, higher education and the student loan program are a mess. How we expect to get a skilled labor force with any spending power out of that is one of the great mysteries of our time. The acquisition of new skills is one of the great levelers for a society, and we've made it tremendously expensive and difficult.
We need to manage for a higher level of employment. The fact that so much of our productivity gains have gone to the top instead of the working class indicates that we are managing for such low levels of employment that there is no pressure for higher real wages. Employers have been able to manage for stagnant real wages across the board, and plummeting wages for the class of people -- white males -- who had been paid best.
Managing for a slack labor market has certain advantages for the capital owning class, and which includes me to a small extent, but is concentrated at the top end of American incomes. Companies can spend their money on dividends and stock buybacks instead of worker's pay. The speculative natural rate of unemployment isn't particularly scientific, but it has provided a rationale for managing the economy for sufficient slack in labor demand to suppress the rise of real wages. The NRU has continued in use not because it is economically useful or provable, but because it is politically useful.
Ah, you say, but if we manage for wage inflation related to productivity growth, what about asset bubbles? I submit that those have as much to do with changes in banking as they do with monetary policy. The real estate bubble accompanied innovations in the banking industry that allowed the sale of securitized mortgages, making far more money available than could be invested by savings and loans making mortgages based on deposits. The great age of corporate raiders was also the great age of junk bonds. The tech bubble actually happened at the same time as some wage inflation.
Asset bubbles may well have more to do with the deregulation of the banking system and the rise of the shadow banking system than with monetary policy, and should be dealt with on that basis.
Surge Pricing and Cindi of the Shattered Shoes
by John MacBeath Watkins
There were three parking places in front of Mad Merlin's Joke, Costume, and Magic Emporium, and one was a 30-minute load zone. That is where Cindi of the Shattered Shoes was parked, and she was not done shopping.
She had come out to see if any other spaces had opened up, knowing that she'd been parked for nearly half an hour and her car was about to turn into a pumpkin. She found Jack the Blighter fuming, because the cars parked in front of and behind his Bulgemobile were too close for him to get out.
"Don't worry," said Cindi, wincing from the pain in her feet that had been caused by a glass footwear-related accident, "I'll move out of my spot and take yours."
A crafty look came into Jack's eyes.
"Oh, that's just what you'd like me to do," Jack said. "If the spot's that valuable, I'm keeping it."
The magic sigal the parking fairy had chalked on Cindi's left rear tire was beginning to glow.
"But the spot's no use to you, because you're done shopping," Cindi objected.
:"Yeah, well, it's my spot, and I'm not moving," the Blighter said.
Two people happened along just then. One was Prince Charlie, Earl of Studly, a region famed for its bull semen, the other was a parking fairy.
Maybe it was just the magic blowback from the parking fairy's wand as she turned Cindi's car into a pumpkin, but Studly was so charmed by Cindi that he immediately fell in love.
"Please," Studly pleaded, "turn this young, beautiful and fecund young woman's car back into its original state, I wish to get busy with her and make some little princelings and princesslings, that my House may continue to rule, and I think it would really impress her if I got her car back."
"Can't turn it back until the fine is paid," the parking fairy said. "It's one magic pea."
"I have a magic pea," Jack the Blighter confided, confidingly. "I'll sell it to you for half your kingdom."
"But the going rate for a magic pea is one farm," Studly objected. "You're gouging."
"Clearly, you wish to surge withing my lady's garden of delight," the Blighter said. "Thus, surge pricing applies."
"I will accept your hand and other projecting parts of you in marriage if you can get my car back to its original state," Cindi declared, declaratively. The pain in her feet was becoming unbearable, and she really just wanted to sit down in her car. Plus, the guy still had half a kingdom.
"Oh, all right," said the smitten prince, smitingly for some reason. With a flourish, he signed over half his kingdom to Jack the Blighter.
When he took the pea, Prince Charlie, Earl of Studly, discovered it was hot. As he juggled it in his hands, wincing, Jack winked at him, and Studly remembered that Jacks tend to steal things.
He quickly dropped the hot pea into the parking fairy's proffered purse. The fairy promptly turned to the pumpkin and waved her wand, turning it into an acorn.
"It was a Honda Accord, not an acorn," Cindi objected, objectively.
"My remit was to return the pumpkin to its original state," the parking fairy said. "When you bought the car, did you carefully read what it said on the boot? (Like many fairies, the parking fairy had attended an English boarding school.)
"But the lady who sold it to me was so nice!" wailed Cindi. "She said she only drove it to black mass every full moon!"
"Bent old biddy with a wart on her nose and sort of Goth taste in wardrobe?" the fairy asked, questioningly.
"Well, yes," said Cindi, agreeably.
"You got taken," the fairy announced. "I'm only allowed to return the vehicle to its original state."
"I'll bet you'd turn it into a car for another magic pea," suggested Jack, leering at the prince suggestively.
The prince didn't care to trade off the other half of his kingdom, so he decided to try and persuade the fairy instead, and started moving toward her, raising his hands pleadingly.
The fairy whipped out her wand and shouted "stop or I'll shoot," while firing her wand. Prince Charlie, Earl of Studly, turned into a frog.
"You saw him!" the fairy said, "He came at me!"
"He had his hands up," Cindi replied. I'm afraid that replyingly isn't a word recognized by my spellcheck, so I can't tell you how she replied.
"Change him back," Cindi suggested, suggestively.
"He had it coming," the fairy said. "the grand jury will clear me."
Jack sidled up to the frog and offered to sell him a magic pea for the rest of his kingdom.
"No, you don't!" Cindi snapped, snappishly. She was a practical woman in all matters not related to the choice of footwear. "He still has half a kingdom, his offer of marriage is still valid, and under recently passed marriage equality laws, I can marry the frog I love. He's my prince charming."
"Charlie," the frog croaked, correctingly, if that's really a word.
Our echoes roll from soul to soul
by John MacBeath Watkins
One of my wooden boat friends, Rick, in Australia, is dying, and doing so with dignity and fortitude. I posted this for him:
The Princess: The Splendour Falls on Castle Walls
Alfred, Lord Tennyson
The splendour falls on castle walls
And snowy summits old in story:
The long light shakes across the lakes,
And the wild cataract leaps in glory.
Blow, bugle, blow, set the wild echoes flying,
Blow, bugle; answer, echoes, dying, dying, dying.
O hark, O hear! how thin and clear,
And thinner, clearer, farther going!
O sweet and far from cliff and scar
The horns of Elfland faintly blowing!
Blow, let us hear the purple glens replying:
Blow, bugle; answer, echoes, dying, dying, dying.
O love, they die in yon rich sky,
They faint on hill or field or river:
Our echoes roll from soul to soul,
And grow for ever and for ever.
Blow, bugle, blow, set the wild echoes flying,
And answer, echoes, answer, dying, dying, dying.
I'm particularly fond of that line about how our echoes roll from soul to soul. Rick, you are a part of all of us now, and what we've learned from you will live on in us, and I hope will allow us to die with the dignity and fortitude you display.
Tamir Rice and the depraved heart
by John MacBeath Watkins
When I heard that 12-year-old Tamir Rice was shot by Cleveland police after waving a realistic toy gun around, I thought, what a tragedy. Wouldn't have happened to me as a 12-year-old white kid if I'd been doing something that stupid when I was growing up in Maine, but it's the sort of thing that happens in cities.
Then I heard that the two officers at the scene did not render first aid to the kid for four minutes, and at that point an FBI agent who happened to be in the neighborhood came along and rendered assistance.
In my opinion, that's a crime.
There are two possible interpretations of this. One is the doofus theory, that the cops were so freaked out by one of them having shot a kid, they didn't know what to do. If that's the case, they were negligent, and so useless in an emergency that I'd say they have no business on a police force.
The other possibility is more sinister and I'd say less likely. Sometimes, negligence is intended to cause harm or death. These are called depraved heart crimes, or sometimes depraved indifference. If the officers at the scene were convinced that they had screwed up to the point where it could cost them their badges, it might have been to their advantage if the kid died and could not testify.
In support of the doofus theory, we have information provided by the previous employer of the cop who shot the kid. Timothy Loehmann, the 26-year-old cop who did the shooting, had previously worked of a police department in a suburb of Cleveland called Independence. The city of Independence has taken the unusual step of releasing a letter recommending the dismissal of Loehmann.
From Cleveland.com:
A Nov. 29, 2012 letter contained in Tim Loehmann's personnel file from the Independence Police Department says that during firearms qualification training he was "distracted" and "weepy."
"He could not follow simple directions, could not communicate clear thoughts nor recollections, and his handgun performance was dismal," according to the letter written by Deputy Chief Jim Polak of the Independence police.
The letter recommended that the department part ways with Loehmann, who went on to become a police officer with the Cleveland Division of Police.
"I do not believe time, nor training, will be able to change or correct the deficiencies," Polak said.
So, maybe the guy had issues and should never have been hired. That doesn't explain why his partner, 46-year-old Frank Garmback, also failed to render first aid. Perhaps there's more to the story, but it's hard to think of a good reason for this.
The thing that makes both men look bad, and made me think of the phrase "depraved indifference," is the story they told before they knew there was video of the incident.
From the Daily Kos:
Not knowing that a camera recorded the entire incident, the police told what appear to be at least five lies about what happened.
1. Police said that Tamir Rice was seated at a table with other people.
2. Police said that as they pulled up, they saw Tamir Rice grab the gun and put it in his waistband.
3. Police said they got out of the car and told Tamir Rice three times to put his hands up but he refused.
4. Police said that Tamir Rice then reached into his waistband and pulled out the gun, and was then shot and killed by Officer Timothy Loehmann.
5. Timothy Loehmann was described as a rookie.
1. Tamir Rice as not seated at a table with other people.
2. Tamir Rice does not appear to grab the gun and put it in his waistband.
3. Police shot and killed Tamir in less than two seconds and could not have told him to put his hands up three times.
4. Tamir Rice absolutely does not pull the air gun out of his waistband and brandish it in any way. This fact is so crucial.
5. Timothy Loehmann was not a rookie, but had been an officer for over two years.
If both officers told this story and it didn't agree with the video of the event, that makes it look to me like they colluded on a story that would exonerate Loehmann. But why would Garman do that?
Anyone who has spent time around cops knows that one of the most important traits a cop can have to survive in the work they do and support those they work with is loyalty, and especially loyalty to your partner.
I don't know if this is a case of misplaced loyalty or if the two men talked about what happened and became convinced that their erroneous account was true. If the latter is the case, it supports the doofus theory and indicates neither man is a reliable witness to a crime, and should not, in my humble opinion, be cops. If the statements of fact that were not true were a conspiracy to clear Loehmann, that would be another reason both men should not be cops.
Even if that were the case, it would not prove that letting the kid lay there bleeding for four minutes was a depraved heart crime. I'm not a lawyer, but it seems to me that you'd have to prove that they were letting him bleed out to eliminate the only other witness to the shooting.
That's a high bar to clear, as it should be, because I find it difficult to believe anyone would do that. But then, I find it difficult to believe anyone kills people for the flimsy reasons they do.
I doubt very much these men will be held criminally liable for failing to render first aid for those four minutes.
But unless I hear a damned good explanation for that failure, I'll always wonder: Did they have depraved hearts, or were they doofuses, or is there something I'm missing here?
Is America really so violent?
by John MacBeath Watkins
People who compare the United States to European countries say we have an extraordinarily high murder rate. But is that the appropriate comparison?
For a country located in the Americas, the United states has a relatively low murder rate. Canada and Chile are the exceptions. I suspect the issue is cultural. One thing that has happened with colonization is that some cultural aspects of the mother country are preserved from the time of colonization. I would look to the murder rate in the mother country at the time the country was colonized to explain a high murder rate in that culture today.
The murder rate in Europe in the middle ages was extremely high, and dropped quite a bit during the time the
Murder rate per 100,000 inhabitants in 2012.
Americas were being settled. Steven Pinker, in his book
The Better Angels of Our Nature
, states that murder rates were about 30 times higher in the middle ages than they are now. If my theory is correct, the earlier a country was settled, the more likely it should be to have a high murder rate.
This seems to go against the fact that Chile has a low murder rate, even though the conquest of Chile started in 1540. One answer to this is that the low murder rate in Chile reflects the relatively strong state there. A strong state tends to reduce the murder rate because it's not good for the state to have taxpayers killing each other, any more than it helps a farmer to have his livestock fighting.
The early Chilean state was small and homogenous, prevented from expanding northward by the desert or southward by the unconquered Mapuche Indians. The conquest of Chile was gradual, and as a consequence of failing to conquer the Mapuche, Chile relied more than most Spanish colonies on European settlers. In fact, parts of the country attracted German settlers in the mid-19th century. Much of the country's expansion occurred after it declared independence from Spain in 1818, and with many immigrants arriving after that, the country could be expected to be culturally closer to modern Europe that nations settled earlier.
One of the uses Britain made of its American colonies was as a place to transport criminals. Once transportation to America as a punishment became impossible, Australia and Canada began to absorb Britain's malcontents. And whereas the French had chosen mainly to trade with the Indians and send only people they could trust to the new world, the British sent people pushed off the land by the Inclosure Acts, criminals and pretty much anyone they felt they were well shed of. As a consequence, the British culture imported to Canada was that of the 19th century, while the British culture imported to America was that of the 17th century.
Contrast this to Venezuela, a country where Columbus actually landed, which was colonized to a great extent in the 16th century. We find that it has an intentional homicide rate of 53.7 per 100,000 annually, in contrast to the 3.1 of Chile or the 1.6 of Canada, and the United States of America turns out to be one of the least dangerous countries in the new world with a murder rate of 4.7 per 100,000
(all figures are for 2012.
So, if the culture of violence in new world countries reflects the timing of their formative European colonization, what made European murder rates fall so much?
For one thing, violence became harder to get away with. As European states became more centralized, policing got better, and it became harder to walk away from a murder and start over elsewhere. In addition, as states became more centralized, warfare within a country became less practical -- dukes who might have tried to expand their duchy found that they were restrained by the increasing power of kings.
Another factor was the decline of subsistence farming and the increase in trade and industry. The key to wealth and power became less how many farms you could subjugate by the sword, and more the trade and industry you could dominate. Power moved from men with horses and armor to men with ledgers and gold.
While many a duke had risen to his post by violence (a duke was originally a war leader) few merchant princes found violence the path to influence and wealth. Because commerce is not a zero sum game, cooperation was a better path.
The shift from agrarian empires to mercantilist empires was a shift from warring tribes to warring nations, in which the violent domination of resources and trade routes led to greater national wealth. This was the great era of colonization. The shift from mercantilist empires to capitalism put further emphasis on cooperation, and undermined the colonial empires. Modern global capital creates
stateless income
that undermines colonial empires and makes wars less rewarding. Because the capital doesn't enrich the state that spends money one wars, but goes where it won't be taxed, much of the feedback mechanism that made empires possible is gone.
So, it's easy enough to see why violence has become less common in Europe. From the top down, it has become less rewarding and harder to get away with. The question remains, why did their colonies preserve the barbaric attitudes of an earlier age, and what can be done to move them beyond that?
Anomie and the search for meaning
by John MacBeath Watkins
The French have a word for it: Anomie. No norms. It is a condition when people find themselves so disconnected from social norms that they cannot find their place in the world. Emile Durheim used the term in his book,
, published in 1887.
His theory was that a rapid change in the values and standards of society would lead to a feeling of alienation
and purposelessness. Picture the situation; society is changing rapidly, and while it may try to prepare you for your place in it, that place is no longer there by the time you are trained for it. Your entire life plan, the existence you have spent your childhood and adolescence preparing for, is nowhere to be found.
Are you a failure? No, worse. There was no path to a life of honorable labor, no place for you in the world.
You cannot even fail, because all that you have prepared for is simply not there. You were groomed to play a part in a pantomime that has been cancelled. And here you are, alone on the stage in a parody of makeup for a part no one cares to see you play. How meaningful is your life, then? If society were a dictionary, you would not even be a word, just an indecipherable squiggle in the margin.
That is anomie, diagnosed at the end of the 19th century, discussed to death to 20thcentury, a wallflower at the party in the early 21stcentury.
As you might expect from the title of Durkheim's book, suicide was one common response to this condition. Perhaps it still is. We don't talk about anomie much anymore. People still kill themselves, people still feel disconnected from social norms, but that 19th century term is less common than it once was. It's a shame, because the term explains a lot.
Much of what makes us human is in our interaction with others. It is in the social realm that we display our sanity or madness, and our very humanity. That is why solitary confinement is such a severe punishment, one that can even produce psychological effects such as
hallucinations, paranoia and obsessive thoughts
. We are meant to be social creatures, incomplete without interaction with others.
Once, society changed slowly, and when we spoke of the Old Kingdom, the Middle Kingdom, and the New Kingdom, we meant social orders that differed little and lasted a thousand years each. Then it was possible for generation following generation to fall easily into their social roles, and we can suppose anomie was not a problem. Those days ended in the Axial age, which we discussed in
this post
When the world started changing too rapidly for an entire society's structure to adapt new places for its members, individuals had to find their own places. That may seem hard enough, but when they invented their new positions, they had no norms established for the new ways of life they were inventing. They needed guidance, and they got it in a great age of prophesy. Across Europe, the Middle East, and Asia, prophets told people that they should be compassionate, that they should do unto others as they would have done unto them. And that was enough, for two or three millennium. People could think for themselves, and still think about others, with the guidance of the prophets.
And then, the world started changing faster, and faster, and faster. The feeling of disconnection from social norms, social roles, spread wider and wider. Some felt the change, and said "God is dead." Some felt the change, and said, "God, save me!" and started churches dedicated to preventing change. Some felt the change, and the loneliness, and the pain, and became angry, and said, "God, I will kill those who caused this!" and became terrorists. And some, strangely enough, said, "God is dead. I bet we can build a better one," and started dreaming of an all-knowing computer.
Do you want to know how they felt? Do you know who's to blame? Look in a mirror. No, seriously, that's one way to study the problem. Psychologists have people look in a mirror in order to get them to focus on themselves, in order to study one of the central problems of psychotherapy.
People come to see a psychologist very often because they are depressed. The psychologist needs to assess the problem, so has the client talk about themselves.
This self-focus causes the people talking about themselves to become sadder if they perform this self-focus in private, or to experience social anxiety if they do it in public. In essence, they experience a heightened sense of anomie, of disassociation from the warmth and comfort of human contact, because they are focused on themselves.
There is the problem, then. To be human requires participation in human society, and rapid social change can cast us adrift, maroon us in an island of the self. And as we try to understand ourselves, we focus on ourselves, and feel more isolated and alone as a consequence.
The shared hallucinations of our social constructs are meaningless if we are alone. If we are only animals, eating, sleeping, reproducing, we are only the appetites our genes have programmed us to have. If we are human, we live in a world invisible to most animals, a world of language and symbol, in which what we pass on to others may not even be physical matter, such as genes. It may be our ideas, ideals, songs and gods. It may be the world of meaning, the most human world of all.
However out of place we may feel, however useless our social skills and unattainable our aspirations, what makes us human is the people who have shaped us. We are never alone, because they are a part of us, and we are a part of those whose lives we've touched. Even the worst families teach their children to be human. What those children rejects from those who have shaped them sets the boundaries of their souls, what they accept gives those souls their content.
Unlike most animals, we can cooperate with one another even without family ties. This is because in that ethereal world of symbolic thought, we can pass on a part of who we are to people genetically unrelated to us. Our thoughts are at least as fecund as our bodies, and we lust for the sort of social intercourse that will allow us to transmit our wisdom to each other and build up something greater than ourselves.
Anomie is a symptom of the failure to do this, a sign that we must find a way to reach one another and find comfortable niches for ourselves in the great body of civilization.
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Yesterday I ate my first lemon guava and really liked eating it out of hand. I have a few pink and red varieties but this lemon one made me want some different types to add to my yard.
Does anyone know where to get some of the harder to find varieties like the pineapple, strawberry (pink), or "Egyptian" Thai / Bangkok white Giant? |
Follow-Up Postings:
I was at Flamingo Rd nursery (http://www.flamingoroadnursery.com/) 14 days ago and bought huge cattleya guava for $10. I bought one of three that were there over by the citrus and mangoes towards the back. Plant I got is 3ft wide and 2 ft high. Spreading out so close to the ground. In a one gallon pot cattleya guava is on the label on side of the pot. It does not say strawberry but according to internet they are the same There is lots of good citrus deals at Flamingo Rd Nursery. Lots of Meyer Lemon and large Persian Limes, Satsumas. Good prices for the sizes sold. Matter of fact Lowes is inundated with citrus, must be that time of year or maybe with (maybe) double dip recession the growers are unloading stock to raise cash. Lowes at Turtle Creek yesterday-- saw lots of very nice Clementine tangerine and Honeybell tangelos (also called Minneola tangelo) Honeybell needs a pollinator such as Dancy which is a great old tough tangerine. For me Honeybell is the ultimate of all tangerines and oranges. It is a Dancy x grapefruit cross. I have honeybell and Dancy growing. Mandarins and Tangerines: a Directory of Varieties |
Here is a link that might be useful: photos Strawberry cattleya guava
cattleya guava is on the label on side of the pot.>>>>>>>>> Just took a look and cattleya guava is actually in a 3 gallon pot maybe a 2 gallon pot |
The Vietnamese Giant guava seems to grow fairly true from seeds. Just purchase the fruit and wait about a year. -Tom |
- Posted by jfernandez 10B (email@example.com) on Sun, Oct 9, 11 at 12:38
Here in California pineapple and red strawberry are fairly common. You can find them in Lowes or Home Depot. I'm giving away my pineapple guava tree I don't like the flavor. Right now I am harvesting Indian Red, Hong Kong Pink, Tropical Pink, Red Malaysian and Thai Maroon. here are pics: Indian Red,Red Malaysian and Tropical Pink |
Jfernandez, What do you think about the flavor of the Red Malaysian? The color is very interesting. |
Doesn't look as seedy as the others either. |
JFernan All your guava look at peek pink perfection when cut open. Have you ever run them through a juicer and see what you get? Is it juice or a thick mush? Z |
yes, cattleya is also known as strawberry guava...just don't get too excited over the fruit. growing honeybells in zone 10b...caution to the wind, they will not give you what you will expect compared to those grown in Indian River County area. The climate is just not right for them down here. They need cold temps that South Florida will not be able to provide to give you the quality you want. |
- Posted by jfernandez 10B (email@example.com) on Sun, Oct 9, 11 at 22:55
murahilin - Red Malaysian has the rich sweet guava flavor, mildly tart, few seeds. I don't let it fall of the tree I like this one a bit crunchy. It's one of the best tasting guavas I have. It's definitely worth growing. Zands and Squam - I only juice the tropical pink with apple juice and strawberry but we also make guava shells, paste and marmalade. JF |
"The Vietnamese Giant guava seems to grow fairly true from seeds. Just purchase the fruit and wait about a year. " I have never seen one, if I did I would try growing it :-) |
Ebay has people selling giant guava plants and seeds |
Here is a link that might be useful: giant guava plants and seeds
JFernan--- did you use a juicer (and what kind) to juice that guava? BsB -- Actually the biggest citrus problem is chlorosis not lack of cold weather. My Dancy tangerines get sweeter as you let them hang through the cold months. I moved my Dancy right next to my Honeybell which so far has blossomed but not fruited due to lack of a pollinator tree |
Thanks all for the suggestions. On my "quest" I went to Pine Island and picked up a "Thai giant" to Bender's grove and found a "Peruvian white" guava, and to Flaming road for the Strawberry Guava. The Thai is but 4' tall and has three huge (compared to my other guavas) fruits on it that I'm looking forward to harvesting. The worker at Pine Island said it was his fave guava. Thanks again, Gary |
Flamingo road nursery for the Strawberry Guava. Bender's Grove in Davie where you also got guava---Â nice guy. All his stuff is from Pine Island Nursery(so it seems) and is a wide variety of tropicals including mamey and June plum. I bought muscadines from him and if you work with him he can get other Pine Island stuff and save a long trip to Homestead (where Pine Island Nursery is) Â |
- Posted by rorero1962 none (My Page) on Fri, May 4, 12 at 19:06
Asian Guava tree ... I own what I beleive to be an Asian guava tree in Anaheim California... The fruit is about the size of an apple. and the shape also looks like an apple. I started some trees from cuttings of my asian guava tree. I will put them up for sale as soon as they start flowering. |
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I am in KY and zone 6. It has dipped down to the lower thirties a couple of times this year but only briefly. Last year our first day below 32 was October the 30th with nights routinely dipping below 32 starting around the middle part of November.
Would I still be ok to transplant a pine tree at this point? I am not sure about the specific type but the matures trees are very tall and probably growing just as tall as many of the hardwoods in the area. If it is still ok to dig and transplant, can someone advice me on the best size to dig and how much soil I need to plan on taking in order to maintain enough of its root system? Thanks! |
Follow-Up Postings:
- Posted by toronado3800 Z6 St. Louis (My Page) on Sat, Oct 22, 11 at 22:13
A plant that is fully cold hardy for your area should be planted when the trees loose their leaves, now. Tender crape myrtles, southern magnolias and japanese maples I worry about bit have no basis for my fears. How big is your tree? |
Well there are literally hundreds that I could pick from. They range from little saplings no more than a few inches tall to several feet tall. I was going to try and find a nice one about 3 ft tall probably. |
Personally, I have never had luck transplanting any local loblolly pines, but white pines have been no problem. I would do several to increase your chance of success, and consider doing only those under 3 feet tall. |
- Posted by ken_adrian z5 (My Page) on Sun, Oct 23, 11 at 9:10
now is the time ... i would go for about a two footer .. just less stress all around ... probably wont even know it was moved ... though as noted.. knowing what kind of pine might make a difference .. i would bare root it ... and shoot for about a two foot spread of roots ... free range pines.. probably have a very shallow root system .... in my sand ... if damp ... you can nearly pull them out ... though a little spading will help ... trim all broken root ends ... you should be able to tell in very early spring.. whether the buds are elongating.. if not... move another .... since you seem to have an unlimited supply ... now is a good time.. since it will have two cool root growing seasons.. before the heat of next summer ... rather than waiting until spring.. and hoping it will get 6 to 8 weeks before the real heat hits ... this should work for z6 and colder .... though it might be getting a bit late further north .. ken |
I am not certain but I would guess that these are loblolly pines. There is a high clay content in the area that these trees are all growing but they are doing well and spreading like wildfire. I have read that white pine is not tolerant of clay at all, although I have no personal experience. |
I didn't think Loblolly was native to Kentucky, but I could be wrong... |
I have successfully transplanted loblolly pines 90%. The smaller, the better rate of surviving. The little seedlings about 3-5" tall almost always survived. Now is a good time to transplant. They get less shock if you dig the soil bigger than the plant, letting the roots attached to the soil without being disturbed. |
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Kongsberg Maritime has purchased approximately 5.2 acres for new construction on an 82,980 sq ft office and training facility. Construction on the James Business
Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII) has acquired the Engineering Solutions Division of The Columbia Group, a designer and builder of unmanned underwater vehicles
Polarcus Limited announced that Hege Sjo will resign from its board of directors effective February 2, 2015. Sjo has accepted an appointment as Deputy Director
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Thu, Feb 17, 11 at 14:11
Here are some beautiful pictures of spring flowers (and deer) from an English Country Garden blog. Thought you all might enjoy it :) |
Here is a link that might be useful: English Country Garden blog
Follow-Up Postings:
- Posted by bonitamariposa 5 (My Page) on Thu, Feb 17, 11 at 16:05
WOW! Can you tell me what type of camera are you using? |
- Posted by lavender_lass WA zone 4 (My Page) on Thu, Feb 17, 11 at 17:50
Bonitamariposa- That's not my blog, but aren't those pictures beautiful? I believe the lady, who has the blog, is planning to publish a coffee table book. Maybe you can ask her what camera she uses for such lovely photos :) |
- Posted by bonitamariposa 5 (My Page) on Fri, Feb 18, 11 at 10:24
Oh ok, I was mesmerized by all the beautiful flowers, LOL. Thanks for sharing :) |
I get The Garden magazine from the Royal Horticultural Society in the UK. They had some amazing photos of snowdrops in a particular garden (see link below) in the edition that came the other day. An estimated 10 million snowdrops! |
Here is a link that might be useful: Welford Park snowdrops
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Tue, Sep 27, 05 at 18:30
My mother gave me an angel wing begonia last year that she had propagated from her plant, and it was very sickly and just didn't look good, but now it is beautiful.
Like I said I have had it for a year and haven't seen it bloom , and I know my other begonia's bloom almost all year. So... I found this forum and can someone please tell me how to make it bloom? It is (I think) of the Silver variety as the spots on it are silver in color and the underside is crimson. I will post pictures soon. Thank you |
Follow-Up Postings:
- Posted by SusanCarol 7 (My Page) on Wed, Oct 12, 05 at 9:29
Some angel wings don't bloom as much. My angel wings like bright indirect light and misting. They also do not like to dry out. Hope this helps a little. I'm a foliage person myself so as long as the leaves are nice and healthy, I'm happy. Susan |
I have angelwing lucineria.Its a cane type.I can have mine bloom year round if keep it fertilized with a bloom booster type(high middle#)I've been growing it in TX full sun,but its shaded from 1-4& does fine as long as keep it watered well.takes 2 to move it indoors.its 7 ft 3 inches and decided to wait on trimming and see how tall it gets. |
Here is a link that might be useful: Begonia albulm
- Posted by Birdinthepalm (My Page) on Tue, Nov 29, 05 at 10:42
I think people underestimate the amount of light they need to flower well, and as mentioned they can take some sun or at the very least very bright indirect light. They won't usually flower at all in low light situations, but usually if the light is too low the plants will usually get sort of spindly and leggy as well. |
I have a begonia that I think is an angel wing...cane type? And I bought it at the end of season sale : ) that I just couldnt resist...$40 down to 6. Now I have it transplanted and in an east facing sunny window. It is still blooming but I was wondering about the care of this type of begonia... |
- Posted by greenelbows1 z9--so LA (My Page) on Wed, Dec 28, 05 at 0:18
Most canes are pretty easy--give them a loose, well-draining potting mix, keep them evenly moist (not wet, not dry) and in good light preferably with some sun in the morning or late afternoon (not full noontime.) Light fertilizer when they're growing strongly. Always best to start a new thread for a new question--you're more likely to get attention. |
i have a angel wing the silver variety silver splotches red underside its facing a north east sliding glass doors ive had it less than a year it has never bloomed what am i doing wrong please help this plant is very special to me thanks. |
- Posted by greenelbows1 z9--so LA (My Page) on Wed, Feb 6, 08 at 23:38
It's probably not getting enough sun. I remember we had a discussion about this some time ago, and a real expert said he grew canes in full sun. But it's important to know that some bloom much more freely than others. I have some canes that I've never seen a bloom on (partly because I don't water enough I'm afraid!) and some that are never without blooms no matter how poorly I treat them. (I don't treat all of them badly all the time--I just have too many plants and not enough time and energy.) But even with the best care, some aren't big on blooming and some are. I think there is a tendency for the ones with the most beautiful foliage not to bloom as much as the ones with less dramatic leaves, but that's just an impression. |
- Posted by sandy0225 z5 Indiana (email@example.com) on Wed, Feb 20, 08 at 15:54
I've been growing "looking glass" for a year now and it's never bloomed, and that's in the greenhousee. Some of them really just don't bloom. It does have awesome leaves though! |
I find that angel wings need more light than you think to make them bloom. Try moving it to a more sunny location |
- Posted by solstice98 9b Orlando (firstname.lastname@example.com) on Fri, Feb 29, 08 at 12:34
I love cane begonias and have several varieties. Mine are almost all in a screened in patio, shaded by an orchid trellis. Very bright light but not much direct sunlight (just a little dappled sunlight and even that's through the screen). They don't get fed often (because I'm a pretty lazy gardener) and they usually only get watered when it rains (ditto on the lazy gardener thing). They bloom almost constantly! This tells me that the level of light is a more important factor in their blooming than the amount of water or fertilizer they receive. If your plants aren't blooming, move them to a brighter spot. Remember though that direct sun will burn their leaves. |
Looking glass is the silver one on the front of the table, never seen it bloom, grown for foliage |
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Well today we launched our new look at ReviewLinux.Com. For 7 years we have been bringing Reviews News to the Linux Community. We decided to go with the latest WordPress release 3.3.1 as well as a theme from StudioPress. We have tried to break up the home page into a few sections where you can get a brief fix of the latest news. By clicking on the categories in the main menu bar you can go to all the articles under that category.
Send us some email if you like it or not. We will listen.
Michael Perks