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Analysis: US outlines new Afghanistan strategy
By Thomas Joscelyn & Bill Roggio
The long-awaited new US strategy for Afghanistan was released this morning. In a press conference, President Barack Obama outlined the US goals in the region and the plan to stabilize Afghanistan and neighboring Pakistan.
The goal, Obama said, is "to disrupt, dismantle and defeat al Qaeda in Pakistan and Afghanistan, and to prevent their return to either country in the future."
To achieve this goal, Obama laid out seven major points: tackling the Taliban and al Qaeda sanctuaries in Pakistan while promoting governance and democracy; a surge in military and civilian forces in Afghanistan; bolstering the Afghan security forces; reconciliation; Afghan governance; and international support.
These seven major points are outlined below, along with a brief analysis of the prescriptions and any associated problems.
1. Pakistan: Resolving the deteriorating security situation inside Pakistan was the first item mentioned by President Obama. The US will seek to bolster aid and support to Pakistan to improve Pakistan's capabilities in fighting the Taliban and al Qaeda as well as promoting good governance and strengthening democratic institutions.
The military support took precedence. "[W]e must focus our military assistance on the tools, training and support that Pakistan needs to root out the terrorists," Obama said, while noting that these efforts have largely failed over the past eight years. "And after years of mixed results, we will not, and cannot, provide a blank check."
Obama intimated that the US Predator campaign would continue. "Pakistan must demonstrate its commitment to rooting out al Qaeda and the violent extremists within its borders," Obama said. "And we will insist that action be taken -- one way or another -- when we have intelligence about high-level terrorist targets."
Obama also advocated a major boost in aid to Pakistan. He called for Congress to pass the Kerry-Lugar bill "that authorizes $1.5 billion in direct support to the Pakistani people every year over the next five years -- resources that will build schools and roads and hospitals, and strengthen Pakistan's democracy." He also called for Congress to pass a bill that establishes "opportunity zones in the border regions to develop the economy and bring hope to places plagued with violence."
Analysis: The United States has attempted to provide financial and military inducements to the Pakistani government to battle the Taliban and al Qaeda in the tribal areas and Baluchistan province for more than seven years. Since 2001, the US has provided over $10 billion in aid to Pakistan. Billions of dollars of this aid is unaccounted for. The US has conducted more than 50 airstrikes in Pakistan's tribal areas as well as several ground raids in an effort to dismantle al Qaeda and Taliban leadership and training nodes. These actions, which have a destabilizing effect on the Pakistani government, have failed to push the Pakistani military to take action on its own.
During this time, the Taliban have taken over most of the Northwest Frontier Province, often via negotiations with the government. Quetta remains the location of the Taliban's executive leadership council, while the greater Baluchistan province hosts scores of training camps and recruitment centers, and large swaths are under Taliban control. Elements within Pakistan's intelligence service and the military continue to actively support the Taliban and other terrorist groups such as the Lashkar-e-Taiba.
It is difficult to see how a boost in military and economic support will push Pakistan into taking on Islamist extremists head on. Here, the devil is in the details, and few details are forthcoming at this time.
2. A military surge: The planned increased US troop deployments in Afghanistan have been public knowledge for some months. The US recently sent a brigade of more than 3,000 soldiers into the troubled central provinces of Logar and Wardak to tamp down the Taliban resurgence there. An additional 17,000 soldiers and Marines will deploy to southern and eastern Afghanistan, where the insurgency is the strongest. Also, an additional brigade of about 4,000 soldiers will be assigned to partner with the Afghan security forces as trainers.
Analysis: Afghanistan certainly needs additional forces, and it can be argued that the 24,000 additional troops is too little to achieve positive results quickly. But the troop surge will have a positive impact. The US military plans to push the troops into the hot spots, mainly Kandahar and Helmand, the two most violent provinces in Afghanistan, as well as the provinces of Kunar, Paktia, Paktika, Khost, and Ghazni in the east, where the Taliban, the Haqqani Network, and Hizb-e-Islam Gulbuddin are strong. The plan is to take the fight into areas that have become enemy sanctuaries.
The US command in Afghanistan has long sought the commitment of a brigade to focus on training the Afghan security forces. The training partnership model has worked well where it can be implemented, and the additional trainers should serve as force multipliers in allowing the Afghan security forces to shoulder a greater responsibility for security.
3. Increase the size of the Afghan Army and police forces: The plan is to accelerate the expansion of the Afghan National Army from an estimated 80,000 troops to 134,000 and the police force to 82,000 policemen by 2011. "[A]nd increases in Afghan forces may very well be needed as our plans to turn over security responsibility to the Afghans go forward," Obama said.
Not mentioned by Obama is the creation of the Afghan Public Protection Force, the local security force designed to provide security for villages, roads, and installations. A pilot program of an estimated 4,000 members is currently underway in Wardak province, and if successful, may expand elsewhere.
Analysis: The increase in the size of the Afghan Army and police will likely still be insufficient to secure Afghanistan, but the increase in Afghan forces is needed. Nearly doubling the size of the Army in just two years will be a difficult task, and the new Afghan troops will not be ready to immediately take on security duties. As we learned in Iraq, pushing troops and police out into the field before they are ready can have a disastrous effect on security as well as on the units themselves. The Army and police will need to be even larger than the 2011 goal; some estimates indicate there needs to be more than 400,000 members in the Afghan security forces for them to ultimately secure the country and fight the insurgency.
4. Reconciliation: The US will seek to divide the reconcilable elements of the insurgency from the irreconcilables, and then defeat the hard core elements of the insurgency. Obama described this process as follows:
There is an uncompromising core of the Taliban. They must be met with force, and they must be defeated. But there are also those who've taken up arms because of coercion, or simply for a price. These Afghans must have the option to choose a different course. And that's why we will work with local leaders, the Afghan government, and international partners to have a reconciliation process in every province.
Analysis: A reconciliation program has been open and underway in Afghanistan for years. The program has pulled thousands of low-level Taliban fighters and leaders away from the insurgency.
This continued effort may peel away additional low-level Taliban members. But the US and Coalition leaders should avoid looking for easy solutions to ending the insurgency such as looking for high-level insurgent leaders or large groups of fighters to pry away. Recently, Vice President Joe Biden claimed that five percent of the insurgency are hard core extremists (irreconcilables), another 25 percent can be induced to stop fighting, and the remaining 70 percent were fighting for local grievances or pay. There is no evidence of this, however.
There have been many reports of high level negotiations with senior Taliban leaders and the Afghan government, but the so-called Taliban leaders have been members who have been ejected from the movement. The Taliban's leadership and their primary sponsor, the Pakistani ISI, have systematically weeded out many Taliban members who are not ideologically committed. The US and the Coalition must take care not to waste political capital and limited resources, and avoid getting bogged down in these phantom negotiations. The senior level, as well as most of the mid-level Taliban, Haqqani, and HIG leaders are not going to reconcile. And reports of divisions between Mullah Omar and the Taliban are false. In fact, these groups have become more interdependent since the US invasion in 2001.
Furthermore, Mullah Omar recently rallied much of the Taliban's existing leadership in Pakistan and Afghanistan to fight their primary enemy: American forces in Afghanistan.
5. A civilian "surge": The US will surge the so-called "soft power" elements in addition to the military troop surge. It has been reported that more than 400 civilians from State, Commerce, Agriculture, Justice, and other government agencies will be sent to Afghanistan to improve governance, the economy, and agriculture.
Analysis: Like the number of troops being surged, the number of civilians being sent may be too low, but will be welcomed if they are used properly. In Iraq, the expansion of the provincial reconstruction teams combined with a military surge in forces yielded positive results.
Much of the reconstruction and governance efforts in Afghanistan have focused on the national and provincial level. To achieve real success, the reconstruction teams will need to push into the districts to effect real change.
6. Afghan governance reforms: The US and Coalition will attempt to hold the Afghan government accountable for its actions and promote reforms and good governance. The US will "seek a new compact with the Afghan government that cracks down on corrupt behavior, and sets clear benchmarks, clear metrics for international assistance so that it is used to provide for the needs of the Afghan people," Obama said.
Analysis: This is far easier said than done. Afghanistan has been at war for more than 30 years, and the middle class has long since fled. Corruption is rampant in Afghanistan and few, if any, officials have a clean record. The US must ensure it does not let the perfect become the enemy of the good. The goal is to provide enough governance and security to tamp down the insurgency and deny al Qaeda its sanctuary. Some level of corruption by officials should be expected given Afghanistan's history; US officials must take care to only crack down on the offenses that jeopardize security and governance.
7. International/Regional cooperation: The US will seek to resolve problems in Afghanistan by working together with Afghanistan's neighbors and the major players in the region. President Obama believes these countries share a common goal: the security of Afghanistan.
"[T]ogether with the United Nations, we will forge a new Contact Group for Afghanistan and Pakistan that brings together all who should have a stake in the security of the region -- our NATO allies and other partners, but also the Central Asian states, the Gulf nations and Iran; Russia, India and China," Obama said. "None of these nations benefit from a base for al Qaeda terrorists, and a region that descends into chaos. All have a stake in the promise of lasting peace and security and development."
Analysis: This same recommendation was made by the Iraq Study Group with respect to security in Iraq. No working group was formed, and Syria and Iran, the two nations most responsible for aiding al Qaeda and the Sunni and Shia terror groups, were not consulted on the Iraq security plan. Iraq has achieved a large measure of success despite the lockout of Syria and Iran.
Not all nations share the same goals in Afghanistan. India and Pakistan are long-time rivals, with radically different visions for Afghanistan, as well as for the rest of South and Central Asia.
Iran does not wish for the Taliban to regain power, but supports the group to bleed US and NATO forces and keep Afghanistan destabilized. Iran has no interest in having a secure, pro-US/NATO Afghan government on its eastern border. US military officials have repeatedly accused the Iranians of supplying arms to Taliban forces. Moreover, Iran currently hosts a substantial al Qaeda network on its soil. This has been confirmed by the US Treasury Department, the Saudis, and various other pieces of evidence. Iran has repeatedly obfuscated international efforts to secure the transfer of senior al Qaeda operatives living within its borders, including one of al Qaeda's chief military leaders, Saif al Adel.
And while China and Russia do not wish for Islamist extremists, which threaten their own security, to regain power in Afghanistan, it is likely in their interests to have the US expend military and political capital in a protracted fight. For example, Russia has opposed the US's basing interests in Central Asia, while there are reports that Chinese arms have been supplied (via Iran) to the Taliban.
READER COMMENTS: "Analysis: US outlines new Afghanistan strategy"
Posted by Shawn in Melbourne at March 27, 2009 6:56 PM ET:
Excellent analysis, Bill. I hope to discuss and link to your analysis over the weekend.
Posted by Red 3 at March 27, 2009 9:12 PM ET:
Like all post on theis net, most outstanding.
I believe that point six is the key. Internal Afghan support, (greater than words), is where the true foundation of any plan. We learned this with Iraq's wishy-washy government. As a veteran of two tours in Iraq, I am sure to see an Afghan deployment also, I would much rather go in support of host country with absolute commitment to rid themselves of extremist than one that provides lip-service to gain US dollars and international aid that will be poorly distributed. Worse yet, given straight to the Taliban and al-Quaida forces.
I also think that a program like the Sons of Iraq, (better called the"we'll pay you not to blow us up"), would be appropriate there. I works for the border-line anti-coalition forces and others...believe me. Seems to be that something like that may be in place already. With oppertunity to transfer to the Afghan police or military. Provided the participants meet certain previously thought and layed out criteria.
Posted by Neo at March 27, 2009 10:01 PM ET:
Red 3:
Unfortunately the "wishy-washy"� government is part of the state of things in Afghanistan and any development will be slow and difficult, taking years to make significant progress.
Yes, I'm afraid, more of the usual. I take it that you are just wishing out loud, and already realize this though.
Posted by Neo at March 27, 2009 10:09 PM ET:
I don't see any unpleasant surprises in today's strategic outline. For now the Obama administration seems to be playing pretty close to Gates original plans for this year. If there is any intention of cutting and running, I certainly don't see it this policy review. Whatever the pundits may say, the military is definitely getting the benefit of the doubt and will largely get to set it's priorities for the next year. This administration would clearly rather avoid any abrupt change in policy direction, despite campaign rhetoric otherwise. They simply have their plate full with other obvious national problems to attend to.
Three things need to happen; 1. A successful national election in Iraq without major disturbance, so the next major phase of the US draw-down can begin next spring; 2. The small surge in Afghanistan needs to at least stalemate the Taliban this year, thus frustrating their ambitions; 3. Pakistan must somehow hold itself together, without capitulating to the Taliban's demands. The first two are very doable the third very problematic. For now we can only play a peripheral roll in Pakistan.
Posted by Marlin at March 27, 2009 10:24 PM ET:
Bill said, "But the troop surge will have a positive impact. The US military plans to push the troops into the hot spots, mainly Kandahar and Helmand, the two most violent provinces in Afghanistan".
From this article it seems the British will be very happy to see the Americans arrive in Helmand.
In an interview with the Financial Times, Major General Mart de Kruif, who leads Nato's southern command, said UK forces in Helmand were "bearing the brunt"� of the Taliban insurgency in the south. As a result, he said, Nato was making progress in establishing development zones in neighbouring provinces because Taliban insurgents were being forced to focus their efforts on central Helmand.[...]
He added that pressure on the UK mission would be alleviated by the arrival of some 8,000 US troops in Helmand in May. This would allow the UK to intensify its central Helmand operation, where it is seeking to create security bubbles in which ordinary Afghans can go about their daily business without intimidation.
Financial Times: Nato general hails troops fighting Taliban
Posted by Marlin at March 28, 2009 11:07 AM ET:
Obama said, "The US will seek to bolster aid and support to Pakistan to improve that Pakistan's capabilities in fighting the Taliban".
In addition to the suicide task on the Jamrud area mosque, the Taliban certainly didn't waste any time responding to Obama's address.
Militants blow up a key bridge on a Pak-Afghan highway in the Khyber Agency in Pakistan suspending a NATO supply line to Afghanistan.The incident happened Friday evening hours after US President Barack Obama announced his new strategy for Afghanistan and Pakistan to defeat Taliban and al-Qaeda.
Local officials told Press TV that militants detonated the key bridge with explosives in the Landi Kotal area of Khyber Agency.
Press TV:Pak militants destroy key NATO supply bridge
Militants on Saturday destroyed 12 parked trucks laden with supplies for NATO forces in neighbouring Afghanistan during a heavy battle with police, an official said.
Fighters armed with rockets and petrol bombs besieged the Farhad terminal on the edge of the northwest city Peshawar, police said, the latest in a series of strikes targeting goods bound for foreign forces across the border.
ARY TV: Militants destroy 12 NATO trucks in Peshawar
Posted by Marlin at March 28, 2009 11:38 AM ET:
Bill said, "To achieve real success, the reconstruction teams will need to push into the districts to effect real change".
It appears that the U.S. forces and provincial reconstruction teams are in some cases already being active in this arena. Hopefully, the civilian reconstruction teams can build on this progress already underway.
Seven years ago, the bazaar in this barren and desolate corner of southwestern Afghanistan's Farah province was a bustling hub of economic activity, serving as the primary trading center for a district of about 120,000 people.But that was before the Taliban came. According to a local story, within a year after the fundamentalist regime was ousted by the U.S.-led coalition in 2001, a group of Taliban fighters went on a rampage in the Bakwa bazaar, setting people on fire and committing other acts of violence.
In recent months, the Marines, along with a provincial reconstruction team based in Farah, have provided money to rebuild the district government center in Bakwa. Two weeks ago, the district subgovernor came back and now lives on the site.
The Marines and the reconstruction team also paid for a new mosque and an adjacent site for ablution, the ritual washing that Muslims undertake before conducting prayers. They hired villagers to haul away mounds of trash that had accumulated in the bazaar. They provided money to drill four new wells. They have plans to rebuild a medical clinic destroyed last year by the Taliban and to even plant trees.
Stars & Stripes: Marines face big challenges in Afghanistan
Posted by Lorenz Gude at March 28, 2009 12:09 PM ET:
A remarkable post about an important announcement by a new president. Remarkable because you alternate the straight reporting with your clearly labeled analysis - which is actually restrained analysis not spin or partisan punditry. I have been reading this blog since I found it provided strategic understanding of the confusing military actions in Anbar Province unavailable elsewhere. Just excellent work. Thank you again.
Posted by NS at March 28, 2009 7:16 PM ET:
"I have been reading this blog since I found it provided strategic understanding of the confusing military actions in Anbar Province unavailable elsewhere. Just excellent work. Thank you again."
Touche'. So i have been one of the many who came upon LWJ under similar circumstances :-)
Excellent analysis. Very level headed and matter of fact. The Administration's intent and motivations seem to be on the right side of things but it remains to be seen how far it will succeed.
Unfortunately as always, the enemy has a vote. When the US Joint Chief of Staff openly and publicly says that the ISI is still supporting Taliban/Al Qaeda safe havens in Pakistan, one wonders how the level of co-operation between the two sides can continue along the same lines as before.
The key is that Pakistan wants Afghanistan to be its near abroad - that is how it was pre 9/11. and they are trying to get back to that status quo desperately.
Whether you like them or not ( i cannot stand them), one has to agree that the Pakistani military jihadi complex has been running circles around the US.
They openly resort to nuclear blackmail and have the geography on their side ( Karachi being the nearest sea port, supply lines, knowledge of terrain), and are using it to the hilt.
The way the US govt deals with Pakistan reminds me in many ways of the financial companies in the US Govt bailout that have been deemed "too big to fail".
Posted by NEO at March 28, 2009 10:27 PM ET:
"I have been reading this blog since I found it provided strategic understanding of the confusing military actions in Anbar Province unavailable elsewhere. Just excellent work. Thank you again."
I think we are talking about the old "Fourth Rail"� site. It has been a while. Like others, I was desperate for at least an attempt at real analysis. Good basic information wasn't real easy to come by with Rumsfeld Vs. the media in a contest that in hindsight could best be labeled as wrong Vs. completely wrong.
Bill's analysis of what the US military was trying to do was always very informative. It took a while to get a feel for what AQI was really doing. AQI was extremely good at exploiting and manipulating weaknesses but never seemed to know when to stop (still doesn't). DJ's analysis of the development of the Iraqi army has always been a singularly valuable resource too.
Somewhere along the way we lost those PowerPoint presentations of military campaigns set to martial music; informative if a bit on the quirky side ;-)
Posted by Guptan Veemboor at March 28, 2009 10:33 PM ET:
This war on terror is not a conventional war. It is a guerrilla war. How far a troops surge will be effective? When a country is attacking another it do not bother about civilian casualities. To conquer is the only aim. Here it is to be done with minimum civilian loss of life.
Another crucial thing is dealing with Pakstan. There are two Pakistans. One is the country with most of its people sufferring because of the wars going on for many years' from the time of influx of Afghan refugees onwards. The other is the Army. How to make it do what US wants. (It is more or less the other way. It black mails US to do what it wants by political blackmail by threatening to withdraw its forces from the western borders to the eastern one citing the percieved terror from India.). Can it be made to sever its connection to its old ally the Taliban and see that none of them operate from the no-mans land of the tribal belt. It is next to impossible.
Trying to win over the moderate Taliban is also a wishful thinking. You can win over the mercineries. Then they are not Taliban. the real Taliban is a idealogically motivated band and you cannot win over. It is only the bandits who roam over as Taliban and the mercineries can be won over. And it is not much use of having them. In all probability they will be a burden as they are sure to harass the common man for money and other things.
History has shown that the mountainous terrain is out bound for every outsider. US is trying to rewrite that history. There seems to be no chance of it. It will be the land of warlords and tribal chiefs and all. You may have a Kabul or Kandahar where the modern civilisation exists but not in the wilderness.
And the hunt for AlQuaida also may not bear fruits. If US is worried of terrorist attack better improve the security system to its heart content instead of this hunt for the modern willo-the -wisp.
Posted by kingsley at March 29, 2009 7:24 AM ET:
It ain't going to happen I know but at what point would the Pakistani Govt be better off completely disbanding the ISI and starting again? It must be approaching that. They would lose most if not all their intelligence capability for awhile and no doubt create some well trained, well connected malcontents but is that any worse than what they face now?
Posted by mjr007 at March 29, 2009 11:30 AM ET:
I have been around here since Bill was the www.roggioreport.com. His inciteful analysis has long been a source of clear-headed refreshingly clear information.
I appreciate his unbiased approach to analysis. While I don't participate much on discussion of topics, I do ALSO appreciate the participants here adding their specific knowledgeable perspectives.
Just a great site for all things geopolitical.
I love it.
Posted by Dan A at March 29, 2009 4:47 PM ET:
Great analysis. One question I've been wondering is the effectiveness of the strikes in Pakistan or even the targeting of high level operatives in Afghanistan. Does this have any considerable effect on the effectiveness of the rest of the organization/organizations?
Posted by Cajun at March 29, 2009 4:59 PM ET:
Interesting analysis. Using Iraq as a model of the process with Bush announcing the surge, Petraeus appointed the Commander and Odierno developing the campaign plan, where are we in AF. Who is the AF Odierno? As Keane said "hope is not a plan". Would you say the strategic plan is the "go long" version in play in Iraq? Logistics seems the military critical link and the enemy knows this.
Posted by NEO at March 29, 2009 10:10 PM ET:
The resemblance to the situation in Iraq is somewhat superficial. The element that is the same is the US needs to step up efforts to secure populated areas in Afghanistan and increase pressure on insurgents while over the longer term developing the Afghan government and military. On the larger scale this is a military/political stalemate between three dominant players in the conflict, the United States, Pakistan, and the Taliban.
In the short term the United States along with the Afghan government need to solidify their control over population centers in Southern Afghanistan and of course retain supply routes to the outside world. It's goal at this point needs to be to absorb and dissipate any momentum the Taliban has gained on the Afghan side of the boarder and hope the situation on the Pakistani side does't become irretreavably lost. Eventually creating some leverage on the Pakistani side will also be needed if Pakistanis cannot find any leverage themselves.
For the Taliban and Al Qaeda winning is about sustaining momentum. They have been hugely successful in creating a Pashtoon revolt on the Pakistani side of the boarder which they continue to solidify. They have also had a great deal of success in exploiting and undercutting a fractured Pakistani government and military. At the same time they have made inroads into weakly contested areas over much of Southern Afghanistan.
For Pakistani's this is a much more complicated problem. This plays into the long political struggle over Pakistan's national identity and direction. This is no longer a debate over religious conservatism vs. secularism in the Pakistani state. This is now about whether Pakistan will embrace the extremist agenda of Al Qaeda and the Taliban. I doubt whether even a conservative faction within the Pakistani government could harness and control the Taliban as the ISI once did. Any accommodation is more likely to end up as an intermediate step toward gaining full control over the Pakistani government.
Posted by Cajun at March 30, 2009 11:31 AM ET:
Neo, thank you for your thoughtful response. Points well made. Who is responsible for developing the unified campaign plan for AF? Is that part of the problem, a split command? It is interesting that as we discuss the issue the tactical fight seems to be in AF while the strategic fight seems to be in Pak. A country that we must not forget has operating and tested nuclear weapons.
Posted by Pete Salerno at March 30, 2009 3:57 PM ET:
Cajun you have pointed out one fundamental problem in AF. And that problem is NATO. While I was deployed to Iraq, my wife, a Civil Affairs officer was deployed to AF. A year after redeployment, my brigade went to AF as part of TF Phoenix, with responsibility for training the ANA and police. I did not deploy with the brigade, but several close friends of mine, senior NCO's and officers did. Let me tell you, none of these people have anything good to say about NATO. The general consesus is that outside of the Brits, the rest of them are pretty useless since they won't leave the wire. This is not to disparage the soldiers. This is strictly due to the differing national command authorities who have put these strictures on their soldiers. There will have to be a unified command, with a clear, thoughtful and aggressive plan to secure the population of AF before we can achieve our goals. Mr. Roggio, this is an outstanding site and virtually the only one I bother looking at anymore. Cheers,
Posted by A.H Amin at April 1, 2009 5:07 AM ET:
afghanistans neighbouring states do not wish USA to succeed in Afghanistan , just like USA conspired from Pakistan against USSR .Obamas strategy will not make much of a difference unless Russia,India and Iran are incorporated.
US presence in Afghanistan is percieved as Phase One of a US Plan Barbarossa in the region with Phase Two,Three and Four extending to Russia,Pakistan,Singkiang,Iran
Posted by Malik Rashid at April 1, 2009 8:56 AM ET:
SCENARIO: The Pakistan ISI aligns itself with the Taliban and pressures the military to takeover, on the pretext of saving the nukes. They declare an Islamic revolution.
Could this happen despite the presence of US forces in and around Pakistan?
Posted by Appalachian Daughter at April 24, 2009 1:28 PM ET:
As a genuine "arm-chair critic" my only contribution comes from history of the region, written by authors with hands-on experience there.
Sen. McCain said recently that Afghans have a history of being great fighters, as opposed to the Iraqi Army. His point being, (I think), that we might be better to leave training of the new Afghan recruits to the Afghan Army itself, rather than a US led effort to train. Evidence from history supports the Afghan's military expertise: Russia was defeated in Afghanistan and completely withdrew, tail between its legs, within recent memory. Before that, the British Empire in its heyday, experienced a similar fate. It looks like McCain's point may be well-taken.
According to a recent poll (reported at this site, I believe), N. Afghan citizens were mostly in favor of NATO's military assistance; however, in the South, where the Pashtun (Pashtoon above) tribe has close ties with the Taliban, as Pashtuns also have in Pakistan--Pashtuns on both sides of the Afghan-Pakistan border feel more kinship with the Taliban and less likely to support our 'foreign' intervention. However, the report indicated that Pashtuns, on the Afghan side of the border, at least, did welcome civilian help and aid.
Ahmed Rashid, a Pakistini reporter who spend several decades in Afghanistan, wrote in his book, Taliban, that Pakistan's ISI had a hand in strengthening the emergence of the Taliban; and that for decades the Pakistani elected or dictator governments have left the war lords in the mountainous western border regions to themselves, without interference from the central government.
If we don't face the facts realistically, our attempts to stabilize the region will be met with nasty surprises, of course, as many of the comments have expressed. One interesting comment in the article, to me, was acknowledgement that our drone attacks in Pakistan have destabilized the central government there. With nothing to replace the strategy, it is easy to see why our govt. and military have not yielded to Pakistani demands for the drone flights to stop. But, in view of recent progress of Taliban in taking new territory, within striking distance of Islamabad, almost, we may wish we had tried harder to find a substitute for the drone flights. Continuing the flights may spell the "death knell" for the elected Pakistani government, seeing that it cannot protect its civilians from these bombs.
Posted by Leo Frank at May 15, 2009 7:02 AM ET:
President Obama's Af-Pak policy, followed by a by and large condition-free aid to Pakistan, is a signal that the US & NATO Allies are powerless in controlling things in Pakistan beyond extending monetary aids!
What is more apathetic, is the attitude of the Pakistan Govt, and its very own security establishment - the Pak Army-ISI Complex. First, the Pak Army-ISI Complex deliberately remained inactive & unresponsive to the global concerns of 'Galloping Talibanisation'. And just when the top US leadership expressed their deep concerns, did they move some of their forces to show that they are still in command! We have already witnessed such pretensions in the past as well! Hence, Gen David Petraeus rightly said, "We have heard all those things for years! Its time now, that the Pakistan Army do it for real!"
True! Pakistan is left with a few months & not years!
Otherwise, the state is headed for an imminent disaster!


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subset: commoncrawl


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The Kilkivan Shire Museum contains a comprehensive display of ore and mineral samples common to the district, photographs and documents relating to mining, forestry, dairying and town, school and family histories of Goomeri, Kilkivan, Widgee and Woolooga. Research facilities - fee applies.
The main building has rooms furnished in style of yesteryear, for example parlour, bedroom, general store and barber's shop. Fettler's barrack houses a school room and kitchen. Large slab shed contains buggy and wagon, mining, farm and forestry tools. A genuine stockman's hut, made from slabs laundry and containing original contents has been relocated to the museum grounds.
... moreThere is an unmanned Visitor Information Centre in the front of the main building which is open everyday to visitors and tourists for approximately seven hours.
... less
School visits - one teacher/parent per group of six to eight students is required.
Main building has disabled access ramp. Some restriction on out buildings with stairs (two only), remainder are on ground level and easily viewed.
General Comments
No smoking, drinking, eating or pets allowed in buildings.
How To Get There
By road to Kilkivan. Museum is next door to the Left Bank Cafe and Gallery.
Entry | Cost | Valid From | |
Adult | $3.00 | 01 Aug - 31 Mar | |
Group | $3.00 | 01 Aug - 31 Mar | Pre-arranged school groups with hands-on display AUD3.00 per child with no charge for adults. |
Student | $1.00 | 01 Aug - 31 Mar |
* Please note: These rates are indicative based on the minimum and maximum available costs of listed products and services. To obtain a firm price from the provider, please use the contact the operator. All prices are quoted in Australian dollars.


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Blog | Comments |
WoW | 4 Comments |
Recent Comments:
The OverAchiever: Farewell to The Exalted {WoW}
Feb 10th 2011 9:04PM I am one of the many who is extremely narked about my stolen title, and have a ticket in with the GMs asking when the hell I'll be getting it back.
The real irony is that I'd have been happy to have ground out another ten reps for a new title. However, I really cba to do it to regain a title I had whipped away from me without warning. All those long hours killing bloody pirates...
This combined with the complete failure to appreciate why people do achieves (2010 stein anyone? can Blizz really not find an hour or two of an employees time to recolour an Icon and reword a feat of Strength? Or give someone the job of checking holidays each year before they occur and everyone complains).
I shan't be cancelling my subscription just yet - most of Cata was great - but my commitment to the game is dropping fast.
Breakfast Topic: Should Blizzard take away earned titles and rewards? {WoW}
Feb 10th 2011 10:32AM I have to say, I just noticed that my Exalted had gone today as well. That's a title that took perhaps hundreds of hours to get. Normally I'm not too bothered by these types of changes but I'm really narked about this one. They should also have been up front about it in the patch notes, rather than sneaking it in without noting it, shows serious disrespect for the time and effort people put into it.
Seriously grumpy now. 8(
Insider Trader: Jewelcrafting nerf incoming {WoW}
May 29th 2009 2:54AM Well, I've never really enjoyed JC which I picked up when it was new, never made any money from it, and only didn't drop it because I'd spent a fortune on the hundreds of recipes. The nerf is a pain, but won't change my game experience in the slightest.
Now engineering, (my other tradeskill) may not be so good for end-raid bonuses, but it sure is fun. Roflcopters, Jetboots, explosives of all kinds, repair bots, waving dummies, stealth detecting beeping robots*, invisibility devices, bomblings, dodgy teleporters that may kill you or turn you into a chicken, the ability to dismantle dead mechanicals, a motorbike you can ride with a friend, the list goes on.
What's not to like?
*though to be fair these should have a long CD, not be one shot items...
The Undead Plague ends today {WoW}
Oct 31st 2008 5:46AM I enjoyed the Zombie plague, but I think the timescale could be improved. I'd like any event to last at least two weeks - I travel frequently with my work and so if its just a few days I may well miss it entirely.
I also felt there wasn't enough time to build up the menace - spreading the phases over five or six days gives you chance to discuss with guildies and get excited.
Still, all in all a lot of fun, thanks Blizz, keep it up.


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Replied to Rich Chicken Stock Recipe : Bobby Flay : Food Network
Jan 7, 2015 on FoodNetwork.comReviewed Rich Chicken Stock
Aug 3, 2013 in Food Network Community Toolbox on FoodNetwork.com
"Excellent stock and less work than most other recipes. Whatever you do, do NOT add salt as one reviewer suggested. Any chef worth his salt will tell you that unsalted stock gives you maximum flexibility when preparing any dish as you can taste first, then add salt if needed, or as needed. But the stock itself should be salt-free. Otherwise, ju""
Reviewed Arborio Rice Pudding
Jul 20, 2013 in Food Network Community Toolbox on FoodNetwork.com
"Excellent recipe. If I had one bit of advice for those about to make this dish for the first time ...make it as written and then decide if you want to modify the next time. I followed many previous suggestions to reduce the sugar so only used 3 T instead of 4T. I wish I had left it alone as I found it not sweet enough and I'm not a crazy swee""
Reviewed Eggless Caesar Salad
May 21, 2012 in Food Network Community Toolbox on FoodNetwork.com
"Didn't care for the dressing much. I used half the amount of the Dijon mustard after reading other reviews but still tasted of way too much mustard and not enough lemon. I added more lemon juice to dilute the mustard taste which helped but it still wasn't a great tasting dressing. Also didn't care for the anchovies. It did add saltiness which ""
Reviewed Chicken Pot Pie
Jan 23, 2012 in Food Network Community Toolbox on FoodNetwork.com
"Loved the flavor & the crust was divine. The filling was a bit on the dry side though as all the liquid seemed to be absorbed by the ingredients. So next time I will use less fillings than recipe calls for to get more "gravy". This did make a lot of filling too - easily enough for 10 - 4oz ramekins."""


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Smallscreen - American Horror Story
A sendup of great horror movies, where a house takes over the lives of a dysfunctional family trying to reconnect. The Los Angeles home is a magnet for evil and possesses a veritable treasure trove of horrific crimes committed in years past.
TV information
Showing: | 2011- |
Channel/Network: | N/A |
Connie Britton | Vivien |
Jessica Lange | Constance |
Dylan McDermott | Ben |
Denis O'Hare | murderer |
Evan Peters | Tate |
Taissa Farmiga | Violet |
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text: European scientists believe they've developed a treatment for gray hair. They claim to have discovered the cause for gray hairs - and figured out how a certain enzyme could help reverse the process altogether. Then they created a cream that get's the enzyme into the hair and working it's magic.Stay tuned to see when the treatment will be made available to the public.


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If you need further help setting your homepage, check your browser's Help menu
A woman noticed two men struggling in the street and grabbed the gun and led police to the suspected robber.
The comments below are member-generated and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of PoliceOne or its staff.
Be the first to comment on this video. |
When Chris Burns, 27, of Salina, started walking around downtown Salina on Monday afternoon in his new stormtrooper armor, someone called police to report the alleged gun-wielding man


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did I leave anything out? should i remove something that shouldn't be in the list?Oasis
The Oasis Exhibits
Discovery Island
The Tree of Life
Conservation Station
Discovery Island Trails
Habitat Habit!
It's Tough to be a Bug!
Kids Discovery Clubs
Kilimanjaro Safaris
Pangani Forest Exploration Trail
Rafiki's Planet Watch
-Affection Section
-Animal Cams
-Animal Health & Care
-Eco Heroes
-Rafiki's Planet Watch Video
-Song of the Rainforest
Flights of Wonder
Kali River Rapids
Maharajah Jungle Trek
Camp Minnie - Mickey
Festival of the Lion King
DinoLand USA
Chester and Hester's Dino-Rama
-Primeval Whirl
-Triceratop Spin
Cretaceous Trail
Fossil Fun Games
Tarzan Rocks!
The Boneyard
Live Entertainment
Festival of the Lion King
Flights of Wonder
Pocahontas and her Forest Friends
Tarzan Rocks
Meet and Greet the Characters
Camp Minnie - Mickey
Mickey's Jammin' Jungle Parade


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Ashton Kutcher's Viral Content Site Accused of Plagiarizing from BuzzFeed
Speaking of Steve Jobs doppelgangers, Ashton Kutcher might be in hot water.
Mr. Kutcher, who's an actor in the sheets but a tech guy in the streets (or is it the other way around?), apparently owns a viral content site called A+. And the site's being accused of plagiarism, the Daily Dot reports.
Ironically, the site's being accused of lifting content from BuzzFeed — which recently came under fire after one of its writers was found to have plagiarized from such esteemed reference sites as Wikipedia and Yahoo Answers. Read More


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Rice University is accredited by the Commission on Colleges of the Southern Association of Colleges and Schools to award the following degrees: Bachelor of Architecture, Bachelor of Arts, Bachelor of Fine Arts, Bachelor of Music, Bachelor of Science, Bachelor of Science in Bioengineering, Bachelor of Science in Chemical Engineering, Bachelor of Science in Civil Engineering, Bachelor of Science in Computer Science, Bachelor of Science in Electrical Engineering, Bachelor of Science in Materials Science, Bachelor of Science in Mechanical Engineering, Master of Architecture, Master of Arts, Master of Arts in Teaching, Master of Bioengineering, Master of Business Administration, Master of Chemical Engineering, Master of Computational and Applied Mathematics, Master of Computational Science and Engineering, Master of Computer Science, Master of Electrical Engineering, Master of Environmental Engineering, Master of Environmental Science, Master of Liberal Science, Master of Mechanical Engineering, Master of Material Science, Master of Music, Master of Science, Master of Science Teaching, Master of Statistics, Master in Bioscience Research and Health Policy, Master in Environmental Analysis and Decision Making, Master in Nanoscale Physics, Master in Subsurface Geoscience, Doctor of Architecture, Doctor of Musical Arts, Doctor of Philosophy.
Contact the Commission on Colleges at 1866 Southern Lane, Decatur, Georgia 30033-4097 or call 404-679-4500 for questions about the accreditation of Rice University.
The Commission is to be contacted only if there is evidence that appears to support an institution's significant non-compliance with a requirement or standard. Normal inquiries about the institution, such as admission requirements, financial aid, educational programs, etc., should be addressed directly to the institution and not to the Commission's office.


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Veterinary Support
April Mulcahy
April had 3 years previous experience at another animal hospital before joining our team in late 2010. Her favorite aspect of the job is being able to spend time with different animals and being able to help them feel better. At home she has 5 dogs, 2 horses, a mule and a monkey!
Nikki Smith
Nikki worked at VCA Franklin Park until she moved to our area and joined our team in 2009. She has been a technician for a number of years and loves all of the different aspects that the job entails. She keeps busy by also grooming here part-time. She enjoys working with her German Shepard mix, Katie and taking care of her cats and pocket pets.
Veterinary Assistant
Marta Leszczynski
Marta joined our staff in February 2012 working in the kennels, and she is now also a part-time veterinary assistant. She has lived in the area her whole life, and is currently studying pre-vet at Benedictine University. She can also speak fluent Polish, and play the violin & piano. At home she has four dogs, and she enjoys going to car shows in her free time. She previously worked at a wolf ranch!


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A Goddessy Sheath
Ethereal, airy lily blends with jasmine and cedarwood: the perfect balance between pretty and sophisticated.
A Bandage Dress
Orange flower, vanilla, and grapefruit are spiked with woody, sensual cypress.
Gorgeous lotus and amber notes are infused with wood and jasmine.
A Pencil Skirt
As versatile—and appealing—as the outfit: feminine freesia and juicy apple anchored with sandalwood and musk.
Bergamot, black currant, and spicy wood make this earthy-hot.
A wildly compelling, all-out sultry cocktail of mandarin, peach, and heady geranium.


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Dagestani jihadist group issues statement on Boston bombings
Vilayat Dagestan, a jihadist group that is part of the Caucasus Emirate, an al Qaeda-linked group operating in the North Caucasus, has issued a statement on the Boston Marathon bombings.
The group released the statement on its main website earlier today, citing "speculation" in the press that one of the bombers "could be affiliated with the mujahideen of the Caucasus Emirate, in particular, the mujahideen of Dagestan." The statement has been translated by the SITE Intelligence Group.
The organization's statement references Tamerlan Tsarnaev, one of two brothers responsible for the bombings, who reportedly traveled to Dagestan and Chechnya last year.
Vilayat Dagestan does not deny any connection to Tsarnaev, nor does it say that he was known to them prior to the bombings. Instead, the group says that it is "at war with Russia" and "not fighting against the United States of America."
Moreover, Vilayat Dagestan says that if the US government is "really interested in discovering the true organizers of the explosions in Boston, without being complicit in a Russian show, they should focus on the involvement of the Russian special services in the event."
US intelligence officials contacted by The Long War Journal say that a number of jihadist groups based in the Caucasus and Chechnya are being investigated. However, the investigation is still in its earliest stages and it is not yet known whether any of them played a role, directly or indirectly, in the Boston bombings.
It is far too early to draw any firm conclusions one way or the other, these officials say.
According to NBC 4 New York, Tamerlan Tsarnaev left New York for Russia on Jan. 12, 2012 and returned on July 17.
Subsequent reports indicate that Tsarnaev traveled to Dagestan and Chechnya during those months and it is this trip that has drawn suspicion.
In August 2012, one month after returning to the United States, Tsarnaev posted a page on YouTube. Videos disseminated by Vilayat Dagestan were among the jihadist propaganda and messages posted by Tsarnaev.
By itself, of course, this does not mean that Tsarnaev became associated with the group during his 2012 trip to Dagestan. US intelligence and counterterrorism officials are currently attempting to build a dossier of Tsarnaev's overseas connections, including any possible ties to Vilayat Dagestan, according to authorities contacted by The Long War Journal.
Warning from Russian government
Vilayat Dagestan's attempt to blame the "Russian special services" for the Boston bombings is inconsistent with the available evidence on Tamerlan Tsarnaev's sympathies and ideology.
In early 2011, the Russian government warned the FBI about Tsarnaev's suspected ties to Chechen terrorists. The FBI issued a statement concerning this warning late last week.
The FBI said it was informed by a "foreign government" that Tsarnaev "was a follower of radical Islam and a strong believer, and that he had changed drastically since 2010 as he prepared to leave the United States for travel to the country's region to join unspecified underground groups." This government requested additional information from the FBI on Tsarnaev.
The FBI added that its review of the available evidence at the time "did not find any terrorism activity, domestic or foreign, and those results were provided to the foreign government in the summer of 2011." The statement concludes: "The FBI requested but did not receive more specific or additional information from the foreign government."
The Washington Post and other press outlets have reported that the warning "came from the Russian government," which was "concerned about Tsarnaev's potential ties to Chechen terrorists."
It is not known if the Russian government had any specific information tying Tsarnaev to terrorists.
The evidence that has come to light since the Boston bombings shows that Tsarnaev was at least sympathetic to the jihadists' anti-Russian cause. It is not known if there was more to the sympathies.
In its statement on the Boston bombings, Vilayat Dagestan says that "by the order Doku Umarov, the Emir of the Caucasus, it is prohibited to carry out strikes on civilian targets." But terrorists acting under Umarov's orders have struck civilian targets repeatedly in the past.
The United Nations reports, for instance, that Umarov was one of the "main organizers" of the deadly Beslan school siege in early September 2004 and the attacks on Moscow metro stations in March 2010.
At this point, the inquiry into Tamerlan Tsarnaev's background and activities is wide open. The possibility that he made contact with any one of several groups remains under investigation. It is also possible that he had no substantive ties to these jihadist organizations.
READER COMMENTS: "Dagestani jihadist group issues statement on Boston bombings"
Posted by Nic at April 21, 2013 2:25 PM ET:
" Instead, the group says that it is "at war with Russia" and "not fighting against the United States of America. " And am I to believe this statement because terrorists have such great track records in the credibility department?
Posted by DonM at April 21, 2013 5:13 PM ET:
A key question about Tamerlan Tsarnaev is; where did he get the money to travel to Moscow and then on to Dagestan and then come back? Perhaps his father sustained him while there, but he was not in great financial shape either. The family in the earlier years were on public assistance. He dropped out of community college for lack of funds, was subsequently unemployed, and had a wife and 2 year old daughter to support.
Posted by David at April 21, 2013 5:46 PM ET:
I think they are trying to say that the Russians recruited him using a false flag approach. It sounds like a difficult thing to do, and risky, and I don't know how much help the Russians could hope for if it goes as the Russians had (presumably) planned, which I guess it did, if you believe this idea. They would have had to bring him to a fake training camp, etc. It sounds like a "Mission Impossible" episode.
Posted by Mike at April 21, 2013 7:25 PM ET:
One thing that doesn't add up: if the FBI had information that this guy might have been a terrorist, and they went as far as to interview him and his family before his trip to Russia, why then did they need the public's help to identify him and his brother?
Posted by blert at April 21, 2013 8:49 PM ET:
I'd be more skeptical if the KGB (nee FSB) didn't have a decades long reputation for employing Chechens for 'wet work' and all-round criminality.
In America, it's unthinkable for FBI agents to run their own criminal gangs. No so in the Soviet Union. In today's Russia mobsters talk about having political/ FSB protection in their own phrase: "having a roof."
Three decades ago, Brezhnev's son-in-law, Yuri Churbanov ran the biggest organized crime ring in the USSR. He was made a Major General -- by the big man, himself, of course.
For reasons obscure to me, the KGB took a liking to Chechen 'contract hires' -- for wet work.
Certainly the Chechens already had a nasty reputation in the USSR -- still left over from the Czars. Further, it was a rare Chechen who could pass as a White Russian -- if they could speak Russian at all. So, when shuttled around for a KGB hit, the stooge would be a man alone -- map-less and dependent.
Should anything go amiss -- then the KGB could scrape the 'help' up off the pavement -- and fob off the event as just another instance of rogue Chechen insanity.
For KGB/ Communist Party mobsters, the Chechens made for very pliant muscle. They'd be given the grunt work, of which there was much. Under the Communists, the big money was in contraband -- such as strawberries, bananas, oranges -- imported at state expense from overseas -- and then converted to Soviet Mafia profits by way of paperwork mix-ups -- such as 'losing' entire train loads of fruit.
None of the above should lead you to believe that the Soviet Mafia was above merchandising hash, opium, heroin, etc. -- with particular emphasis on getting such goods to Holland. (Sort of a 'drug Casablanca' in the heyday of the USSR)
All of which means that Alice might find it very deep at the bottom of that particular rabbit hole.
The KGB has been caught out using 'right-wing' Grey Wolves in Turkey to assassinate the Pope. It almost worked. They ran the op by way of Bulgaria (a cut-out) ... working hand in glove with Moscow at all times, of course.
The West, generally, missed that particular scam -- for years -- until all of the tumblers fell in to place. Those first making the connection were, naturally, labeled kooks and paranoid.
When you're talking about the KGB/ SVR/ FSB you can't get too paranoid. At no time in history has this crowd ever done anything straight. Even when the NKVD was running around the Soviet Union murdering by the million -- they had their propaganda arms blaming the hapless victims.
Russians assume that the rest of the planet operates this way. Hence the screwy paranoia of Putin. Like Stalin before him, every time he receives a concession he's thinking, "It must be a trick."
The KGB always used 'sincere' perpetrators when pulling their ops. Mehmet Ali Ağca only realized that his string was being pulled by Moscow y e a r s after the event.
Like their use of Chechens, the KGB inserted an assassin who didn't speak ANY of the local languages -- into Rome -- making him utterly dependent upon KGB assets at every turn.
Had he not been caught, the KGB would've liquidated him for sure. (See "Godfather II")
Notably, in the Boston marathon op, the perps were psyched into suicide -- lest they fall into the hands of the FBI.
In sum: Dzhokar Tsarnev has followed the NKVD/KGB/FSB script (for Chechen assassins) right down to the letter.
The local crazies can't seem to place them within their 'training operations.' They smell a rat -- and the very likely gambit of having these two suck America into Moscow's world view -- particularly WRT Chechens.
As for Chechen jihadis -- this marathon op is the worst imaginable for their cause. It means that Western funding will utterly dry up. It means that jihadis in Syria will be de-funded. It means that the FBI will be compelled to assess FSB files with more credibility. It means that the US President 'owes' Putin a favor. It also means that any Iranian pressure goes to the back burner.
What a bunch of coincidences.
Posted by mike merlo at April 21, 2013 11:02 PM ET:
Hoover had a history of employing subcontractors & those 'other than' FBI to 'perform' or undertake tasks on behalf of the FBI. The Feds even to day use those that are not Federal Agents or Employees. They are often characterized under the 'rubric' of 'informer/informant.'
Posted by kit at April 21, 2013 11:56 PM ET:
You make me feel really dumb. However I just think it was really simplistic what these kids did...don't over think it. I think they had feeling of; I can't understand the American way of life, I don't fit in & so on with a little radical islam mixed in=lets show these people what it's really like where we are from. It's just my opinion nothing more.
Posted by JT at April 22, 2013 8:00 AM ET:
Mike - It appears that the FBI asked for public help to FIND these guys. Nothing shows that they didn't already know who they were. The car jacking appears to have found them, using the car owner's cell phone that was in the car.
i.e.,putting out the photos pushed the bombers into action and "stupid" act of letting the car owner go.
Posted by Paul T at April 22, 2013 8:38 AM ET:
Boston FBI agents did not "run" Whitey Bulgar, but it certainly aided the gangster & some even went to jail for complicity
Thanks for Informative post
Posted by CN at April 22, 2013 9:25 AM ET:
we absolutely have to go after the ideology of koranic jihad more than after individual groups or perpetrators.
love muslims, expose islam.
being PC is costing lives.
Posted by blert at April 22, 2013 11:00 AM ET:
Darth Tamerlan is now being fingered as the murderer of his 'best American friend' -- his buddies.
His 'hobbies' and lifestyle fit the drug trade, retail and transshipment.
It's as common as dust for such players to practice martial arts -- with a passion. Both perps did so. In an area of no firearms, the guy with the fists is king.
Their lifestyles can't be sustained by honest money. Coming out of poverty, how in the world can these fellows afford high end German iron?
They style as drug distributors.
BTW, that would qualify as jihad, too; just ask the Taliban.
A 'trip to the 'stans' for even a kilo of heroin would sustain them. It's not as if they'd have to stay at it night and day. And, they are well positioned to have the connections.
Which brings us to the FSB. Moscow is irate to see Afghan opiates flooding Russia. Hence, it's entirely appropriate for the FSB to keep a watchful eye on the Tsarnaev clan.
They also can reasonably assume that opium/ heroin profits are sustaining the Chechens at war.
Hence, their warning to the FBI may have been on the level.
None of these possibilities is politically correct in Washington.
As each day advances, more and more flamingly obvious evidence is coming forth against the duo.
Survivor testimony alone had fingered Dzhokhar Tsarnaev as perp #2 within the first two days. He'd been 'made' putting the backpack-bomb down. The 'video hunt games' were stalling tactics. These were only dropped when it became obvious that the public was going to find perps on its own.
A big media splash was made about Miranda rights. It's a non-issue. The government is not going to need or use ANY of Dzhokhar's testimony or admissions. Hence, it doesn't matter.
Miranda turns on self-incrimination. With eye witnesses and the video footage, the prosecution can proceed without Dzhokar's words.
Yet, entire TV shows have been dedicated to this non-issue.
Posted by Jim Cornelius at April 22, 2013 12:55 PM ET:
Blert: Not that it obviates your point, but this statement jumped out at me: "In America, it's unthinkable for FBI agents to run their own criminal gangs."
Refer to Boston's own Whitey Bulger case... They weren't running a crimnal gang, exactly, but they gave that brutal psychopath a lot of manuevering room...
Posted by Kent Gatewood at April 22, 2013 5:22 PM ET:
One small step toward retaking Hagia Sophia.
Posted by Knighthawk at April 22, 2013 6:45 PM ET:
"It means that jihadis in Syria will be de-funded."
Yet quite the opposite just happened, Kerry just announced he's handing them another 300m.
Posted by DonM at April 22, 2013 9:56 PM ET:
It may turn out to be true that the Vilayat Dagestan, themselves, did not provide direct support to Tamerlan Tsarvaev's quest for bloody Jihad. But that doesn't preclude them passing off the proto-terrorist to a Chechen al Qaeda operative who would.
Posted by patricko at April 23, 2013 12:02 PM ET:
Does anybody else detect a chink in the jihadist armor? I the past when a bomb went off and killed people, groups would quickly claim credit, or at least not deny it. But I noticed that the Pakistani Taliban couldn't disown it quick enough and now this group is just pointing the finger at their enemies, the Russians. You can almost hear them. Instead of saying they welcome martyrdom they're saying "The last thing we need right now is a bunch of drones overhead looking for revenge."
Posted by SlayerMill at April 23, 2013 12:50 PM ET:
@ blert.
Could you list some of the sources you used for your examples? I don't doubt the truth of what you wrote by any means, I'd just like to check out some of those sources as well. Russia's paranoid style of running government and intel services will never change, it's always been that way. Stalin probably killed more of his own officers than Germany did during WW2. Just recently Russia arrested that crappy all-female band, Pussy Riot, for singing anti-Putin songs for crying out loud. It was deemed "Hooliganism" apparently, whatever that means? For those who believe these brothers were just proxies for the Russians, why would Russia have previously warned the U.S. about them well in advance?; as it's presumed the Russians were the ones who warned the U.S. about Tamerlan's travels? As for those who think these guys must've been formerly trained to build the explosives used, think again. This information can be found on the internet unfortunately, and being college educated, these guys could've figured out how to build explosives without blowing their arms off in the process. That brings up another point the general public needs to get over. This paradigm about jihadists being a bunch of un-evolved cave dwellers, like the mainstream media leads us to believe, needs to be discarded like yesterday's trash. These guys come from every background imaginable. Unfortunately they're increasingly from the ranks of Western universities too. If you're a university student, like myself, you're probably going to school with aspiring jihadists and don't even know it.
Posted by blert at April 23, 2013 3:59 PM ET:
Kerry is kicking the $300,000,000 loose ASAP BECAUSE the window of opportunity is closing fast.
Such large amounts normally require a line-item in the Federal budget -- tucked into the foreign aid / humanitarian aid slot.
Don' be surprised if, in the fullness of time, the big money gets tied up in knots... directly as a result of the AQ nexus.
Look what's happening with the immigration legislation.
From now on, Immigration is not going to accept Chechens. They're not numerous to start with. Instead, the administration will vector them towards other liberal countries. Buraq just can't have this happen twice.
The Chechen track record is baleful -- going back 200 years.
Posted by blert at April 23, 2013 4:36 PM ET:
The best, single, synopsis on the Soviet Mafia is:
The Soviet Mafia
Arkady Vaksberg
St. Martins Press
In his tome, Arkady goes over old ground, if you're a Soviet citizen.
In the West, a corrupt politician accepts payoffs from criminals -- for consideration. Jon Corzine's free ride and patronage of the President is public record.
In the USSR, the politicians, themselves, DIRECTLY ran the mob -- which had many factions/ families/ territories. The Chairman of the Communist Party was, of course, the biggest criminal of all.
In a manner replicated by Castro and Chavez, these big men talked Socialism/ Communism/ Marxism -- whatever -- and then proceeded to stuff their own bank accounts silly with banknotes -- never Soviet monies, of course -- just dollars, pounds, francs, yen... etc.
This last aspect is still raging on today. Both corrupt Chinese and Russian politicians are smuggling their graft overseas as fast as they possibly can. Until it blew up, Cyprus was an absolute favorite of the Russian mobsters/ and all dark money. (Untaxed cash income)
The raw, naked, dirty deed of burning ones own loyal agents seems to have been invented by the Okhrana -- the Tsar's secret police well over a century ago. Stalin, himself, was an Okhrana double agent. Hence, his lifelong paranoia.
Lenin's syphlitic rantings didn't help, either. (Only in the last fifteen years have the Russians admitted that he died of fourth stage (end game) syphilis. This stage is known to cause paranoia and rantings.
[Other famous syphlitics: Hitler, Churchill's father -- and Napoleon. (The French Army was paralyzed June 17, 1815 because Bonaparte's organ was on fire due to a fresh contraction. This little detail was only discovered in his personal physicians most secret diary -- kept undiscovered until the 21 Century. Until that moment, EVERY historian speculated as to why Napoleon had a 'stomach illness' that prevented him from striking his tent -- virtually all day. It cost him, and his empire, everything.)]
Burning ones agents to advance yet others was well portrayed in the WWII film: "13 Rue Madeleine" -- with Cagney as Bob Sharkey.
While aimed at the Nazis, the film perfectly describes Okhrana/Chekist/NKVD/KGB/SVR/FSB gambits -- gambits that the Nazis/ Gestapo/ SS picked up from -- were trained by -- the NKVD during 'happier times.'
The film was written with massive input from the FBI and the OSS for the American audience so that they'd know what a bunch of devious skunks they're dealing with.
The film, naturally, didn't mention that ALL of the 'sins' that the film Nazis were committing were absolute trademarks of the Soviet Communists.
So, in answer to your query: the Russians have a history of burning their own agents to advance yet other going back at least 130 years. They have no qualms about doing it.
It's also a component of "The Fourth Protocol." In this film KGB agents are liquidating each other -- per orders -- from beginning to end.
These plot notions are not creatures of the author's imaginations. They stem from Cold War experiences.
Hence, it would be standard operating procedure for Moscow to train and equip the two boys -- even be their drug connection -- and then burn them down to the ground so as to influence national policy -- like getting the US President beholden to them. (That'd be an apex achievement.)
Famously, Britain turned Nazi spies. To do so, she constantly spilled the beans to Berlin -- but always just too late for the Germans to quite act on the intel. Such antics even made it into film, too.
Triple Cross
Posted by SlayerMill at April 23, 2013 5:31 PM ET:
@ blert.
Thanks for the sources I appreciate it. As for Hitler having syphilis as you wrote, that's never been proven. There've been a few dozen theories about why he was crazy. Everything from sexual repression to syphilis contracted from a Jewish prostitute early in his life. I've never read Mein Kampf but from what I understand, he goes into a lot of detail about syphilis which is why some believe he caught it. I just put that out there for the reader's to note.
I also wanted to note that @ CN is absolutely right. If we want to keep jihadists from breeding in plain sight, at home or abroad, we have to attack the ideology. Drone strikes are good and all but for every one jihadist we kill, there are ten to fill his shoes. If civilians are killed by accident, you can double that number too. With our media talking about these brothers non-stop just feeds into the problem also. Just because jihadists want to act like pious Muslims, doesn't make them immune to vanity by any stretch of the imagination. These guys want to belong to something and feel important just like people in Western nations. These guys want to be glorified in life and death for being jihadists, and our non-stop media coverage only encourages others to follow in their footsteps. American "justice" or revenge via drone strike, doesn't discourage anyone from wanting to attack us. Jihadists don't fear us and will never stop. We have to make them irrelevant to their constituents, and that's where battling them ideologically comes in. This is much easier said than done unfortunately.
Posted by Matt at April 24, 2013 3:57 AM ET:
Well if the FBI spoke to him so did the FSB when he was in Russia. So the attacker may not have known the FBI were acting on behalf of the FSB. So when the FSB interrogated him the attacker may have thought it was on behalf of the FBI. I would say it takes 8 to 12 months to get a msg to Umaraov. And around that time to get a reply. Anyway of course if the FSB had concerns they would watch him and interrogate him if on their soil. The FSB are more harsh than the FBI. So he returns wanting to kill Americans, thinking they were responsible for his treatment.
Posted by Moose at April 24, 2013 5:25 AM ET:
You have a tendency to jump to wild conclusions. Read the article you linked to about the triple homicide and you'll see that the weed (not heroin) and $5,000 in cash were left at the scene. Whoever killed those guys (it's not clear it was Tamerlan Tsarnaev), it was personal. I'm not saying that Tsarnaev wasn't involved with drugs at some level, but this was clearly a crime of passion, not money.
I live in the Los Angeles area where we have way too many Armenians and others from that part of the world and you can't imagine how violent they can be when they feel disrespected. Since you obviously like citing movies as fact, you should watch Training Day. The LAPD Rampart scandal was very real. Using your logic, that means our entire country is run by mobsters.
What happened in the Soviet Union was due to Stalin's insanity. The Russian Tsars weren't psychopathic murderers as you would have us believe.
Stop using a handful of incidents to jump to wild conclusions. It's not systematic, or else the Russian oligarchs would've never acquired so much wealth without Moscow's blessing, among other obvious counter-arguments to your conspiracy theories. Btw, I'm still waiting for the collapse of the Syrian regime which you've been saying is weeks away for the last year or so.
Al-Qaeda is a joke. They haven't mounted a successful attack in the States for well over a decade (I don't consider what the Tsarnaev's did a successful attack - we're lucky these guys were morons). If we were at war with Hezbollah, I'm sure it would be a different story. This war is being lost on a demographic front as we let more of these people in. Just look at Europe.
The Long War will not be televised.
Posted by Max Brando at April 24, 2013 1:05 PM ET:
I agree with the person above who suggested that we look at this attack rather simplistically. It sounds like these were two amateurs who wanted to attack "the infidels". Tamerlan probably did get training in Dagestan when he went back to visit his parents. He brought back his knowledge of building pressure cooker bombs along with anti-American sentiments. He was further radicalized by his Armenian friend in Massachusets and by watching Jihadi videos. His brother, a teenager who apparently idolized him, was "brain-washed" by him (remember the parents had left Tamerlan in charge of Jahar and their was no family support system). The only thing I can't find a simple explanation for is Jahar's behavior after the attack and before the police showdowns. He apparently was back at school and behaving like nothing had ever happened. This type of dissociation is very unusual.
Posted by blert at April 24, 2013 5:02 PM ET:
ONLY two physicians had total access to Hitler's living body. Both wrote that he had fourth stage syphilis in their most private diaries.
The allegation that Adolf had syphilis was floating around for decades. It was only in recent times that a research team went back to the original sources -- and found that the guys alleging that he had late stage syphilis were his own physicians!
Dr. Theodor Morell was actually sought out by Adolf to become his personal physician. Before that moment, Morell had a national reputation as Germany's foremost expert in syphilis.
Knowing that he was a carrier certainly affected his personal sex life. Hence his oft made claim the he didn't want any children -- sons in particular.
Bing "High Hitler" for a video account. It's on YouTube -- and the syphilis issue is addressed towards the end.
It is now beyond doubt.
BTW, in its late stage, syphilis destroys the nervous system. Such effects can be easily mistaken for other degenerative diseases.
Lenin's last attending physician was brought in because -- he was Russia's leading expert in syphilis! Tongues began to wag in the medical profession -- immediately. Anybody reaching the correct conclusion was shot, of course.
IIRC, the truth was withheld until the 21st Century. Then it was published as a throw-away article -- only one column long.
While alive, Lenin's medical troubles were ascribed to having a 'stroke.' It's now admitted that was pure spin. He started raving -- and the players bundled him off -- away from the public eye. His medical status would've impeached all of the Communist Party's policies -- the product of a madman.
Posted by Mr T at April 24, 2013 5:46 PM ET:
A couple of things I found interesting.
Tamerlan moved to US 10 years ago at age 15
It was 2011 when Russia asked the US to investigate him
Tamerlan went to Russia for 6 month Jan 2012-July 2012.
Tamerlans Aunt in Russia said he stayed with his father and other family during the 6 months
Records shows his father was not in Russia/Dagestan during at least the initial time Tamerlan was there
His Aunt stated Tamerlan told her he wanted to spend some time in the mountians alone.
His Youtube jihad site went online 1 month after he returned.
6 months later, he is a cool hard killer making bombs to kill and maim many, calmly shooting policemen dead, engaging in shootouts with police and throwing bombs, charging the police almost looking for death. HIs brother even apparently ran him over killing him.
So this doesn't add up. The Russians knew about him BEFORE he went to Russia. How did they make a connection to someone who moved away 10 years earlier as a child so as to actually tell us about him?
Who in their right mind can travel to Chechnya/Dagestan and go off into the mountains by himself? I would think those mountains are full of armed terrorists who don't want people they don't know just hanging out there. They may be Russian spies trying to find the rebels. I would think he would be killed for trying unless he knew someone.
The father wasn't there so who did he go to see? His mother? She appears to be a raving jihadist as well.
Who can leave their wife and child on welfare and go on a family vacation alone for 6 whole months? A month or two is one thing. 6 months?
I would bet he reached out to Chechyen Islamists in 2010 when he was down on his luck and living with a woman he doesn't like and being on welfare. His mother was kicked off welfare & out of the country for shoplifting. An Islamist found him in online circles, and saw his usefulness as an American jihadist. The Russians monitor those sites and saw him reaching out to their enemies so wanted us to check him out. Maybe even found something on his family there which may be why he came here. We found nothing much on him.
The jihaist arranged to have him come to Chechnya under guise of familiy trip. He used a common alibi statement about wanting to go alone to the mountains to reflect. That way, his family would not suspect him. Some thought he was living with others and others thought he was living with someone else so he mixes all that together and disappears into the mountains for a few months. In actuality, the jihadist connection took him to some rebel camp where he received explosives, firearms, and mind training.
He returned to US in full jihadist fervor and started work on either his plan or the Chechnyan plan. He probably received some funding or logistical support from them. Along the way, he recruited the only one he was close too, his brother. They had bigger plans but were too stupid to disguise themselves properly leading to their easy identification. They had vowed not to be taken alive. The younger one ran out of bullets and bombs and couldn't off himself.
Just a thought as some of these general facts don't add up logically.
Posted by blert at April 24, 2013 6:01 PM ET:
Staying with films...
"Midnight Express" featured Billy Hayes (Brad Davis) hustling some hash out of Turkey -- at the wrong time and place.
He was doing it for the money -- and figured that a SINGLE run would set him up for life. (After a fashion, it did.)
Tamerlan is exactly the right person to mule opiates out of the 'Stans. For obvious reasons, such transporters can't be addicted.
Like the real life Hayes, Tamerlan -- if he did so -- he could've figured that he'd be set for life. (He would.)
The crime scene mentioned in the above link says drug trade all over it.
It looks like Tamerlan took his script from "Pulp Fiction." However, instead of quoting from the Old Testament, he'd be using the Koran.
Like the film, something went sour. Not being armed, Tamerlan was allowed in, the crew not realizing that he was a lethal weapon, just with his fists.
The $5,000 may have not been visible -- or Tamerlan may have concluded that he was being slipped marked bills.
(It's not given any publicity, but banks are encouraged to issue marked money to even legitimate account holders IF they have reason to suspect that a criminal act is going to be committed with the boodle. The UV ink will not have any impact on regular dealing -- and most of the time nothing comes of it.
The policy is helpful in fighting extortion, kidnapping, fraud upon the elderly, and the drug trade. In such cases, a money trail becomes important at trial -- as the receiver has a very hard time explaining how a slug of marked money ended up in their hands.
The victim is usually the one tapping the bank account -- and for obvious reasons is not going to notify the teller that he's being cleaned out.
AFTER the criminal spends the money, it provides a beeline back to him -- after the victim has finally run to the cops.
If the magic $5,000 was marked its status will never be made public.
BTW, in this day and age, tellers can go years at a stretch without having currency requests of such a size from non-merchants. Most branches require even a weeks notice before loading the vault.
[Some European nations have gone so far as to make it illegal to even deal in that much currency -- large deals have to be plastic or check, period!] )
Playing Sherlock Holmes:
Tamerlan sells $5,000 worth of quality weed to spoilt college students. They're getting the 'bulk price' -- and a lot of weed for their money. However, they withdrew the cash in big bills from the main branch -- and they fit the profile for marking the bills. It was absolutely no trouble to hand them over -- withdrawing them from the master vault. (No teller ever has that kind of money at the window.)
Tamerlan takes the banknotes -- and has suspicions. As soon as he hits them with a black light (UV source) he blows his stack. He promptly returns -- by which time the buyers have already lit up a doobie -- and are in fine fettle.
He concludes his 'business' in very, very, short order; consecrating their bodies in the cannabis and leaving the hot money, too. The product is pungent, so he brushes off all that he can before quietly pulling away. Absolutely nothing is outwardly suspicious -- even his car has been there many times before. Tamerlan avoids the funeral on the small chance that he might trigger memories in the nearby neighbors -- just the kind of people that might attend.
It's a nice tidy theory. If the boys were dealing in cannabis, we'll be seeing a lot in print pretty soon.
As for conflating the KGB and FBI. I don't see where that cross-wire got started. It wasn't in my post -- quite the opposite, in fact.
Posted by ben at April 24, 2013 6:10 PM ET:
These two were apparently very disturbed and cowardice as well. Anyone who bombs civilians in a war are cowardice. The people of Boston were not on a battle field. These extremest groups that bomb the innocent in the name.of their supposed casues. Perhaps i am just angry and venting this out because i feel the people of Boston (or anywhere for that matter) wouldnt have stood by if thwy knew that there was a possible threat near them. I am sure i would have and they would have taken action. The authorities responsible for our "security " can not say the same. US authorities knew of these individuals and did not prevent anything. Why was the Russian reports ignored? Why were these cowards able to walk the streets? This question seems to reappear too many times.
Posted by SlayerMill at April 25, 2013 12:16 PM ET:
@ blert.
That was precisely my point. Hitler ALLEGEDLY had syphilis. All the evidence points to it but it's not, and never will be, set in stone. I've seen High Hitler before and a dozen other show's speculating about diseases and mental disorders he may have had, but none are absolutely conclusive or harmonize with one another.
Posted by blert at April 25, 2013 5:50 PM ET:
When the persons alleging the syphilis are his private personal physicians -- it's no longer considered an allegation.
Such testimony is considered decisive in court.
Such truths get confined to diaries -- because otherwise the good doctor gets shot.
Stalin submitted to a psychiatric examination -- by the foremost doctor in Russia. When this very same doctor told his closest buddy what he thought -- in absolute privacy -- his revelation made its way to the NKVD. The good doctor was dead by torture within two weeks.
Dr. Morell's detection method was -- and still is -- considered absolute. It's based upon the heart -- the heartbeat.
And, of course, there's Adolf's private personal medical history -- which would've absolutely sealed the deal. As Napoleon showed, when you first get syphilis -- you know it. It's an event not ever forgotten.
Posted by SlayerMill at April 26, 2013 4:56 PM ET:
@ blert.
Again you're making assumptions. Morell had no reason to fear Hitler like Stalin's physician did. Morell was a close friend of his. Hitler's closest friends all hated Morell because he was a nasty pig who didn't shower. Regardless, Hitler had him attached at the hip because of his heavy opiate addiction which means he never would've had Morell killed. This is why I don't buy your assumption he feared being killed by Hitler. Again, there's no absolute consensus he had syphilis. Morell was injecting him with so much bizarre and random stuff, there's no telling what could've caused his irregular heartbeat. Maybe it was the cocaine or the bizarre mix which included human feces from Yiddish peasants for instance. I know it was feces from human peasants living a particular area for sure, though I could be wrong about them being Yiddish. I could go on for days about this subject, which I sort of have, so I'm going to conclude we won't agree on this. Our back and forth personifies the lack of harmonization amongst historians in regards to Hitler having syphilis. It's been fun though.
Posted by David at April 27, 2013 1:19 PM ET:
I think they are trying to say that the Russians recruited him using a false flag approach. It sounds like a difficult thing to do, and risky, and I don't know how much help the Russians could hope for if it goes as the Russians had (presumably) planned, which I guess it did, if you believe this idea. They would have had to bring him to a fake training camp, etc. It sounds like a "Mission Impossible" episode.
Posted by mike at April 27, 2013 9:27 PM ET:
Check out Sibel Edmund's take on how all this ties in with Syria. Very interesting and informative. She is a wealth of insight and information, no wonder she is the most gagged woman in America!
Posted by blert at April 28, 2013 2:35 AM ET:
Please provide a link.
Slayer... you're overlooking:
Adolf shot his brother-in-law over protests all around...
sentenced Goering and Himmler -- both -- to death -- in abstentia.
And, of course, shot Rohm, and hanged many, many, many, generals.
So, I guess you're right. A mortal threat to his regime would be blown off for old times sake.
Stalin's physician DID think he was safe; he was wrong.
Posted by blert at April 29, 2013 6:50 PM ET:
More details are spilling in on the Tsarnaev duo's drug income.
Naturally, officialdom does not want any further exposure WRT how much state aid they were getting -- as their true income was unreported.
Posted by Mr T at April 30, 2013 3:48 PM ET:
Slayer, if you hang around a guy who ordered the killing of 6 million people, you should fear him possibly killing you.
Posted by blert at May 3, 2013 2:09 AM ET:
More clarity is starting to occur at the bottom of the Rabbit Hole.
The FSB is on record as having been all over Tamerlan....
Review the link.
In the world of agents, double agents, and triple agents... just who is who?
Zany Debka may be closer to the truth -- pure blind luck, I'd say -- by estimating that NOTHING is as it appears on the surface.
More and more evidence is pulling in to view on the Tsarnaev clan.
All in all... it still doesn't add up.
Like a weak Charlie Chan plot -- moldering some eighty-years -- there are TOO many suspects.
"Cui bono?" Strangely... Moscow, Damascus and Tehran.
How odd.