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* With apologies to John Donne: "Debt be not proud, though some have called thee / Mighty and dreadful, for thou art not so / For those, whom thou think'st, thou dost overthrow / Die not, poor debt, nor yet canst thou kill me."
We live in a world profoundly addicted to debt-financed consumption.
For most of us, our first car and our first home were financed with debt. We borrowed with intent to repay, and most of us did just that. We were, of course, no richer because we'd just borrowed to buy a house or a car: We had a new asset, exactly offset by a new liability. Our expected future consumption was reduced, not advanced, by this borrowing. While we were realigning our lifestyle to improve the subjective mix (with a nice house and a car), our lifestyle was improved in some ways and reduced in others (fewer restaurants and holidays), with no objective net difference.
Today, many people, companies and countries borrow to fund current consumption, with no evident intent to repay. As it comes due, our debt is something we intend to replace with new (and often larger) debt. We're not just borrowing from Peter to pay Paul; we're borrowing a bit more from Peter, to pay Paul … and to finance additional consumption with the difference. How naive of us, as young adults, to have once thought we might never have to pay back the principal!
Greece recently hit a wall, and had to break a lot of promises to its citizens, notably the retirees and prospective retirees from government employment. Iceland's banks hit their wall a couple of years ago. Many people who were late buyers during the U.S. housing bubble hit a wall and are in default. Italy, Spain, Portugal, Ireland, Illinois, California and New Jersey are all fast-careening toward their respective walls.
The nature of that wall is generally the same: We cannot find a lender willing to lend us more, to pay off our old debts, and so those debts truly come due. Our choice, in each case, is either to reduce our consumption, in order to pay down that debt, or default.
Of course, with each default, the failed borrower suffers damage, not least being a string of broken promises to trusting stakeholders. But the lenders suffer reciprocal damage. While debt is extinguished for some, so too are assets for others. It is in this fashion that wealth is destroyed in a financial crisis.
Is the U.S. the lead junkie in a world addicted to debt-financed consumption? Are we careening toward perhaps the biggest array of sovereign defaults in world history? Time will tell, but the sheer magnitude of global sovereign debt is not reassuring.
Why Are Bond Indexes Capitalization Weighted?
Bond investors are lenders. As creditors, why should we deliberately choose to lend more to those who are most deeply in debt?
Bond indexes are mostly capitalization weighted. Consider Table 1a. Greek debt is nearly three times the debt of Australia, meaning cap-weighted sovereign bond investors have loaned three times as much money to Greece as to Australia. If Greece has three times the debt service capacity of Australia, this should be fine, because Greece is just as able to service its debt—ceteris paribus—as Australia. But Australia has three times the GDP of Greece. Therefore, on this simple measure, Greece has about nine times as much debt, per dollar of GDP, as Australia. If the yields are similar, as they were a year ago, one might reasonably prefer to own more Australian debt than Greek debt.
Consider an efficient markets perspective. In an efficient market, what does it matter if Greece owes more and is less able to service its debt? If Greek debt is more risky than Australian debt, we should garner exactly the right amount of incremental yield to provide the same risk-adjusted expected return for both countries' debt. However, we see little evidence of this sort of market efficiency.
If we do not believe that prices are always and everywhere correct, then we should be curious about debt levels, as measured against a borrower's ability to meet their debt obligations. In other work, we've examined this very question. We find that a Fundamental Index methodology applied to bonds—weighting companies according to the size of their business, or weighting countries according to the size of their economy—adds considerable value, relative to cap weighting.1 It is not our intent in this paper to explore the correct weighting scheme for bonds in any detail. Rather, we want to examine the debt loads themselves.
Measuring Sovereign Capacity To Service Debt
How might we estimate a country's ability to produce goods and services—and eventually wealth—that might be accessed for debt service? There is no direct measure. However, we can consider the factors of production in a capitalist economy. Economics literature typically identifies two or three factors of production: capital, labor and sometimes resources (a subsector of capital). We take it one step further by breaking out energy (normally a subsector of resources, but we think it's large enough to merit its own category).
We have identified four factors that crudely proxy for these factors of production; hence, for a country's ability to service its debt.
- Capital: GDP is imperfect, equally crediting the creation of consumables (e.g., auto production and car wash services), alongside destruction of wealth (e.g., litigation expenses and wars) and expenditures that do not enhance wealth (e.g., regulatory compliance). Still, it's the most widely used gauge of the size of an economy.
- Labor: A nation's population is the simplest gauge.2
- Resources: A nation's landmass is a very rough gauge of access to resources.3
- Energy: The aggregate energy consumption of a nation is a measure of the energy that goes into production of goods and services. One caveat is that this may be sourced externally, through petroleum imports.
In Figure 1a, the "Bond Cap Weight" column measures the capitalization-weighted exposure of a country's bond market debt, as a percentage of global sovereign bond issuance, spanning the developed economies of the world.4 These data include local-currency bonds, as well as debt denominated in dollars, euros or other benchmark currencies. As a quality control check, we also include a column labeled "Public Net Debt," which measures the aggregate 2009 public debt—less gold and foreign currency reserves—as a percentage of the world total, as drawn from the 2010 CIA Fact Book.
The next four columns compare the fundamental scale of these economies, using the above four metrics as proxies for the four factors of production for goods and services. On the far right is the equal-weighted average of the four fundamental weights (or three measures, for those instances where there is no energy consumption data).
We should reflect on what's missing from this table. We exclude countries with no tradable bond debt. This includes solvent countries like Kuwait, Lichtenstein, Monaco and Saudi Arabia, as well as insolvent countries like Zimbabwe. Based on the CIA World Fact Book data, these countries collectively owe barely 5 percent of net world sovereign debt and 3.6 percent of sovereign bond debt. Wouldn't it be nice if we could choose to own the debt of Monaco or Saudi Arabia, rather than Greece or Belgium!
We also exclude any debt that is not in the form of publicly traded bond debt. There are several categories, some of which can dwarf the sovereign bond debt.
- Unfunded entitlement programs: The unfunded portions of Social Security and Medicare are vivid examples, as are the unfunded pay-as-we-go pension obligations of Western Europe. These shortfalls are huge in the U.S. and most of Europe. But in Japan, Australia, Sweden, the Netherlands and New Zealand, such programs are largely prefunded.
- Off-balance-sheet debt: A domestic example would be the modest prefunded portion of Social Security and Medicare, in the form of "trust funds," which own nonmarketable U.S. Treasury Bonds.5 While several countries have replaced these entitlement programs with national defined contribution pension funds, with individuals owning their share of these funds, others pursue a pay-as-you-go approach. Outside the U.S., trust funds for prefunding national entitlement programs are not the norm. In any event, our own "trust funds" don't come close to fully prefunding for the projected entitlements.
- Government-sponsored entities: GSEs—such as Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and others of their ilk—are backed by the full faith and credit of the government; hence, by future tax receipts. In the U.S., they're bigger than our external national debt. Japan has much smaller GSEs; most other developed economies have none of any consequence.
- State and local debt and unfunded pension obligations: These are excluded for the U.S.; they're roughly half as large as the direct public debt. No other country in the world has as much state and local debt—a consequence of U.S. tax policy that allows local and state debt to remain exempt from federal tax and also allows prospective obligations to remain unfunded.
- Bank-owned sovereign debt: Sovereign debt, owed to banks, is not uncommon in the emerging markets. In the column labeled "Public Net Debt," which measures the aggregate 2009 public debt—including bank debt, while subtracting gold and foreign currency reserves—we can see that this is not a major "missing link."
In the U.S., the combination of GSE debt, state and local debt, unfunded pensions and entitlements all add up to just under $60 trillion, roughly 10 times the official U.S. public debt. By contrast, none of these hidden forms of debt, apart from bank debt, is consequential in the emerging markets. We'll come back to this topic shortly.
Figure 1a color-codes the debt burden for the developed economies, with purple indicating better debt coverage ratios and red indicating possible debt service trouble spots. If any Fundamental weight for a country, as a share of the world economy, exceeds the cap weight by more than 100 percent, it's flagged in dark purple with white text. If it exceeds the cap weight by at least 25 percent, it's flagged in pale purple with dark purple text. Reciprocally, if a country's cap-weighted bond market debt exceeds any Fundamental weight for that country, as a share of the world economy, by more than 100 percent, it's flagged in dark red with white text. If it exceeds the fundamental weight by at least 25 percent, it's flagged in pale red with dark red text.
In the developed economies of the world, there's a lot of red ink in Figure 1a. Many countries carry debt—not even counting often-vast off-balance-sheet debt—which is out of proportion with their scale in the world economy.
Still, there are pockets of discipline. Australia, Poland and Slovakia show no "red" at all, meaning that the sovereign bond debt isn't 25 percent greater than their economic factors of production, on any of the four metrics. Canada, Finland, New Zealand, Norway, Slovenia and Sweden are each "out of bounds" on only one of the four measures.6
Collectively these "Prudent Nine" comprise less than 4 percent of world sovereign bond debt, and over 6 percent of world GDP, 17 percent of world landmass, 7 percent of world energy use and 8 percent of world capacity for sovereign debt, as approximated by the RAFI weighting methodology, which combines the four previously mentioned factors of production.7 Furthermore, several of the "Prudent Nine" have less hidden debt. For instance, Australia, New Zealand, Norway and Sweden largely prefund their future pension obligations. A cynic might suspect that those who have too much explicit debt will begin to pursue hidden debt, either off-balance-sheet or unfunded entitlements, as was revealed in the case of Greece.
Greece is looking to Germany to save it from the gaping maw of debt. So, let's consider Germany. Germany has a reputation for prudence and probity in the eurozone. But that's only true by comparison with the Mediterranean rim; Germany is strained on all four of our measures. Germany has 5 percent of the world GDP (proxying for available capital), 1.6 percent of the population (available labor), 1.1 percent of the land area (available resources) and 3.3 percent of the world's energy consumption (the energy factor of economic production). Its share of world sovereign bond debt exceeds all four of these measures.
Germany's capacity for carrying debt—approximated by averaging these four fundamental measures of the scale of Germany's economy—is 2.7 percent of the world total. This is barely half as large as Germany's share of world sovereign bond debt. Greece has a RAFI weight of 0.4 percent, about one-third of its sovereign bond cap weight. These German and Greek debt coverage ratios are not dissimilar. The perceptions of German prudence, contrary to this objective evidence, illustrate why we think the debt addiction of the developed markets is so very dangerous.
Worse, Germany has:
- an aging population and a flood of prospective retirees in the coming 20 years
- daunting off-balance-sheet obligations, mostly in the form of pay-as-you-go pensions
- a young and growing immigrant population that was not consulted in creating these long-horizon entitlement programs, and that will not benefit proportionally from these programs
If one were to mark these obligations to market, as if they were prefunded with debt, and compare the total with Germany's ability to service the debt and future entitlements, it's possible that Germany's total debt burden exceeds any credible exit strategy. This would mean that Germany—a bulwark of fiscal prudence in Europe—is probably near-bankrupt, on a mark-to-market basis.
In effect, one might argue that Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain (derisively—and unfairly—characterized as "PIIGS"), are bankrupt states seeking shelter from larger near-bankrupt states. The collective bond debt of PIIGS is 2.6 times its collective RAFI weight in the world economy, which relates to its ability to service debt. That's an acknowledged problem. Belgium serves as the governance center for the EU, yet its debt burden is near-identical to this figure … as is the ratio for the G-5 in aggregate! Isn't it a sad irony that the G-5 economies have a debt burden—relative to the scale of these economies based on the four factors of production—as the so-called PIIGS. And yet we have the temerity to label the Mediterranean rim countries the "PIIGS"?!
Finally, it bears mention that the cap-weighted sovereign debt indexes are happy to include nations that carry hefty debt burdens, until the ratings agencies catch up with reality and downgrade their debt. Then, the index providers apparently don't know what to do with these newly fallen angels. After being downgraded to BB in June, and after the bond prices had cratered, Greece was removed from the developed world sovereign indexes and not added to the emerging markets indexes. As far as we can tell, Greek bonds no longer have a home in the major international fixed-income indexes.
The Emerging Markets Debt Conundrum
Emerging markets debt commands a premium yield. And yet, by objective measures, their debt coverage ratios are far better than the developed markets.
On June 30, the Merrill Lynch Global Emerging Markets Sovereign Plus Index, which spans the dollar-denominated debt of the emerging markets, was priced to yield 6.0 percent. This was 3 percent higher than U.S. 10-year Treasurys. This 3 percent "risk premium" rewards us for bearing the incremental default risk and political risk associated with serving as a lender to the emerging markets. In 2008, President Rafael Correa of Ecuador repudiated his nation's debt, despite ample financial resources to pay the debt. This kind of disrespect for international law—and for the integrity of a nation's agreements—prompts investors to fear investing in emerging markets, perhaps particularly emerging markets debt.
How precarious are the debt burdens in the emerging economies? Surprisingly benign! Consider the so-called BRICs.8 As we can see on Figure 1b, they collectively comprise 22 percent of world GDP, and yet have only 5 percent of world bond debt (and, according to the 2010 CIA World Fact Book, net of gold and foreign currency reserves, just 2.5 percent of the world's total public debt). India and China have issued only local currency debt, which is difficult or impossible for foreign investors to access. India's debt is held in part by the IMF and/or World Bank and otherwise not traded or investable. Most cap-weighted indexes exclude these two countries, because their debt is not investable.
Even this overstates the debt picture, from a global investor's perspective: The second column of Figure 1b shows that Chile, China, Hong Kong, Russia and Taiwan have gold reserves, foreign currency reserves and/or investments in the developed economies' stocks and bonds, amply exceeding their total debt. No wonder, then, that Greater China is on a roll: They're the bankers; we're the debt-addled consumers, who can't stop consuming on borrowed funds!
Similarly, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, the Emirates, as well as tax havens like the Cayman Islands, Monaco and Liechtenstein, all have no net debt. Most such countries, as with China and India, have no bond debt that any foreign investor would be permitted to buy. These "net creditors" would have a significant collective "fundamental weight," if only there were bonds to buy!
If the BRICs—especially Greater China—are carrying less debt than they can comfortably support (based on their GDP, their population, their resources or their energy consumption), then surely there must be trouble spots in the emerging markets. Otherwise, why should investors demand a substantial risk premium for emerging markets debt?
Indeed, there are some pockets of "red" on Figure 1b: Across all four factors of production, Singapore and Taiwan each have a share of world bond markets rivaling their fundamental economic footprint in the world economy.9 Of course, many investment professionals would consider these to be part of the developed world—belonging in Figure 1a, not Figure 1b. For example, FTSE includes Singapore in the Developed World indexes. But we're using the United Nations definition of emerging markets; according to the UN, Taiwan and Singapore are emerging markets.
Let's consider the rest of the emerging markets list. Not one of the other 40 emerging markets in this list—which spans all countries that are included in any of the major EM debt indexes—has as much debt as any of the G-5 countries, whether measured relative to GDP or relative to the RAFI fundamental economic footprint of these countries. The emerging markets are bathed in purple ink in Figure 1b, because in almost all cases, their debt is modest relative to their evident ability to carry debt, based on the four factors of economic production.
The developed markets comprise 62 percent of the world's GDP and owe 89 percent of the world's sovereign bond debt (and 92 percent of total world public debt). The emerging markets collectively produce 38 percent of the world's GDP and owe just over 10 percent of world sovereign bond debt. Do hidden debt and off-balance-sheet debt change this picture? Yes. As with the role of gold and currency reserves, these factors skew the picture in the "wrong" direction.10 In many instances, the developed economies have vast off-balance-sheet debt, while most of the emerging markets have little off-balance-sheet debt, and often have substantial gold or foreign currency reserves.
Given that emerging market stocks are now priced at valuation ratios (price-earnings ratios, price-book ratios, dividend yields) similar to the developed economies, we might wonder why the stocks get a "free pass" on the feared political risk of these markets, while the sovereign debt does not. Similarly, when we saw a "flight to quality" in the fall of 2008 and spring and summer of 2010, why did this imply a shift in investment preferences away from the emerging markets, toward the U.S., Germany and Japan, and not the opposite?
One might reasonably argue that—absent political risk—emerging markets are collectively more creditworthy than U.S. Treasurys. Which invites a provocative question: When will U.S. Treasurys be priced to offer a "risk premium"—a higher yield—than the most stable and solvent of the so-called emerging markets?
Appendix: Debt Burden And GDP Growth
It is beyond the scope of this short paper to explore the wisdom of our surging public debt, though our views on the topic are self-evident. Still, we might pose the question: Which countries have skated through the "global financial crisis" largely unscathed? Again, we might turn to the CIA World Fact Book for some simple evidence.
If we regress 2009 GDP growth against debt burden—defined as the size of a country's debt relative to the fundamental RAFI scale of its economy—and against the 2008-09 average deficit, we find the results on Figures 2 and 3. The bivariate regression results, across the 75 countries, are as follows:
2009 Growth = 3.33% [t-Stat is 10.2]
- 0.005% x ln (Debt / RAFI Weight) [t-Stat 5.3]R2 = 0.453
- 0.18% x (2009 Fiscal Deficit / GDP) [t-Stat 3.7]
Every 1 percent increase in the ratio of a country's debt, relative to its RAFI-weighted share of the world economy (proxying for the country's ability to service its debt), reduced GDP growth in 2009 by 5 basis points (7 basis points in a univariate regression). If the real cost of sovereign debt is 2 percent (i.e., if the yield that the country must pay the bondholders is 2 percent above inflation), then the damage that debt inflicts on GDP growth would appear to be roughly three times as large as this direct cost. The univariate correlation is -49 percent; this result is significant at the 0.1 percent level.
Figure 3 shows that every 1 percent of deficit spending, as a percentage of GDP, reduced a country's 2009 GDP growth by 18 basis points (22 basis points on a univariate basis). The univariate correlation is -59 percent; this result is also significant at the 0.1 percent level.
Neo-Keynesians will argue that our causality is confused: They would argue that it's the plunging GDP that triggers additional debt and deficit spending, not the other way around. Causality is difficult to prove in either direction. But, it merits mention that Keynes himself never argued for structural deficits. That seems to be the war cry of the neo-Keynesians. Keynes argued for budget surpluses in most years, affording a nation an opportunity for deficit spending to soften the impact of economic downturns.
While the sample period is only one year and one financial crisis, and therefore must be taken with a grain (or even a shaker-full) of salt, both results are highly statistically significant. However, since we do not have access to data from multiple "global financial crises," we should perhaps take heed of the implications of this admittedly limited result.
While Figures 2 and 3 examine the economies of the world for one year (2009), Figure 4 examines one economy (the U.S.) for over 50 years. Milton Friedman observed that the true tax rate is the rate of spending: Spending must be covered by current or future taxes, so deficits merely represent deferred taxation. So, how does growth in the private sector economy respond to growth in spending? Badly.
There is a 73 percent correlation between increases in federal spending and decreases in private sector GDP (the gross GDP, less public sector spending). This evidence would suggest that every 1 percent increase in federal outlays—as a percentage of GDP—reduces the private sector GDP by 1.85 percent. Again, the neo-Keynesians will argue that the causality is backward: Plunging private-sector GDP requires soaring expenditures to arrest the damage. Again, causality is difficult to prove, either way. However, the relationship is overwhelming, with a t-Statistic of 3.1.
Figure 5 updates the graph from our 2009 white paper, "The 3-D Hurricane: Deficit, Debt and Demographics."10 As yet, there has been no material deleveraging in the U.S. economy. We've taken a breather on accumulating net new debt, and we've transferred some private-sector debt to the government. However, deleveraging has yet to begin in earnest.
Most of us know someone who has taken on debt amounting to several years of income. If it's for a first home, and our friend's income is rising quickly, we would not think them foolish to take on that first mortgage. But, if it's a middle-aged friend with stable income, especially one fast approaching retirement, we would likely think it very unwise for them to take on massive debt. Most of us are unsurprised when these friends encounter serious difficulties: They've boosted their consumption lifestyle on borrowed funds. The creditors eventually want to get paid.
Many observers fret that, if we deleverage (indeed, even if we stop running up additional debt), we face a serious recession. They confuse credit-funded consumption with prosperity. Is the entry-level clerk who borrows to buy a Mercedes and a condo, and then finds that he cannot afford the payments, prosperous? Does he have a natural, inalienable right to continue consuming beyond his means?
As a nation, regardless of our decisions to borrow more or to reduce our borrowings, we'll still be producing as much in goods and services as in the past. We'll just no longer be consuming goods and services beyond what we produce as a nation. If our lifestyle has been funded in part on debt, then deleveraging will mean a reduced lifestyle for all, but only to the extent that we've been consuming more than we were able to produce. That consumption is unsustainable, regardless of our fiscal and monetary policies and regardless of our intentions with regard to future debt.
If we would counsel our overleveraged friends to cut their spending and start whittling down their debt, why should our counsel to nations be any different? Should we be surprised that the economies for creditor nations are soaring, while the debtor nations find their growth crippled by every economic shock?
1 See Arnott, Hsu, Li and Shepherd, "Valuation-Indifferent Indexing for Bonds," Journal of Portfolio Management, Spring 2010. Just as we damage our returns when we weight stocks according to their popularity—i.e., cap weighting—we also hurt our bond results, if we weight bonds according to the magnitude of a borrower's debt load.
2 The working age population might be a better gauge. We chose total population because it's universally available for all countries.
3 We chose to use the square root of landmass, in order to avoid grossly rewarding big, sparsely populated countries like Russia, Australia and Canada, or penalizing small, crowded countries like Luxembourg, Hong Kong and Singapore. For midsize countries like Argentina or Germany, this adjustment makes little difference.
4 Based on the UN definition of developed and emerging economies.
5 One interesting "factoid" is that the 2010 CIA Fact Book shows the U.S. as having far less debt in 2009 than it did in 2007. How's that? In 2007, the unmarketable debt held in the Social Security, Medicare and other national trust funds were correctly counted as U.S. public debt. In 2009, this $5 trillion debt was excluded. Was there political pressure to make this change? Is there a growing intent to spend the trust funds, rather than to continue even partially prefunding these obligations? We may never know! Either way, for our analyses in this paper, we added the unmarketable Treasury bonds back into the U.S. Bond and Public Debt columns.
6 Interestingly, in each case, the population is the sole outlier; it would appear that its debt is well within bounds on three factors of production: capital, resources and energy.
7 It's interesting to note that most of these countries also breezed through the "global financial crisis" better than the countries with more debt. They enjoyed average GDP growth in 2009 of 1.7 percent, double that of the G-5 and of the eurozone.
8 We've long found this label puzzling: four countries with almost nothing in common but a shared acronym! Even though China shares borders with Russia and India, the three countries have less in common—culturally, economically or legally—than essentially any countries on the developed economies list. Consider it a labeling-cum-marketing coup by Goldman Sachs!
9 Note also that Singapore has a sovereign wealth fund that is larger than its aggregate debt. So, as with Chile, China, Hong Kong, Russia and Taiwan, their net debt is nonexistent.
10 See our Fundamentals white paper, "The 3-D Hurricane: Deficit, Debt and Demographics," Research Affiliates, November 2009.


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subset: commoncrawl


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As you wander around the Internet, send me info on the newer obscure cards you find. Be sure to let me know if the offer you find is targeted so we can let all the other readers know as well. The interesting facts on the cards you find are:
sign-up bonus
minimum spend requirement $ amount and time frame
first year annual fee
Sharing the cards you find may just help a fellow frugal traveler take his or her trip of a lifetime. Maybe we can make a contest of it? Who can find the most obscure sign-up bonus card with the biggest bang for our application $$$?
Update: Steve found me the link for the Citi Forward Card that pays five points per dollar on dining and is not limited to the first year. Katy and I eat out all the time and at five points per buck with a max of 75,000 points in one year, we'll add this one to our application batches as well. The 6K sign-up bonus is lousy but this category bonus even beats the Chase Sapphire Preferred two points on dining. Of course, if you have not received your 50,000 point bonus on the Chase SapphireSM Preferred Card, take that first then move on to the Forward card if you're a big restaurant spender.
Dan H sent me his copy of the email offer for five free nights with Choice Hotel properties. You get enough points for three nights on first purchase and enough for two more once you have one stay paid for with your new card. Is this a top tier card? Clearly NO, but it is from Barclays for those of you who may have worn out your welcome with Chase and American Express as of late.
Hilton Honors Amex at 50,000 Points
This is offered directly through American Express and pays 50,000 points with $750 in spend in the first 90 days. It officially launches on the ninth but the application page is working fine now. I would wait until the ninth. No annual fee first year. This is not a link in my affiliate channels but is direct from American Express.
An Email String, RE: Minimum Spend Requirements
The best tips sometimes come from readers. This one should not be abused or overused. He sent the idea. I asked the pertinent questions. You make your own decision on acting on this one or not:
"Rick, We have had good luck meeting minimum spend by purchasing a couple $1000 Costco cash cards and then returning them for cash. They seem to be posted as purchases. I would not abuse this, but in small quantities it is nice. Too bad I can't get 30k in this manner. I'd really like another two-for-one British Airways voucher. Cheers, Edgar"
My Reply: "Edgar: do you buy the Costco cash cards online? If you buy them at the store, don't they just credit back to your credit card?"
His final reply: "Yes, we bought them online using the Chase Sapphire card. When I went in to the store to get a refund I volunteered to have the refund put on my debit card but they said it had to be cash. Darn. It occurs to me that having too many refunds on my account could raise flags but it did not occur to me to say I was not a member. –Edgar"
Remember: "Pigs get fat and hogs get slaughtered." Greed Kills.
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Super Talent announces new USB 3.0 SuperCrypt drive, 16GB Express Drive to cost less than $70
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CASPER, Wyo. — Residents at the Skyler Inn in Casper weren't happy when they were told they had seven days to vacate their rooms at the soon-to-close hotel.
Frustrated, residents turned to state statutes to try to at least slow the process.
They found nothing.
Like most states, Wyoming's landlord and tenant laws do not mention hotels and motels -- commercial enterprises not required to do business under rental agreements as other residential landlords are.
But Wyoming's landlord-tenant legislation would not have been much help for the dozens of Skyler Inn residents, some of whom had called the extended-stay hotel home for years. State statute says 10 days is enough advance notice for a landlord to terminate a tenant's lease agreement and mandate they find a new abode.
And unlike other surrounding states -- with enforcement authorities to put laws into action and statutes that grant more recourse to unfairly treated tenants -- Wyoming has no central housing authority to enforce its own laws.
Years ago, state Rep. Patrick Goggles hoped to change that.
The Democrat from Ethete twice penned his name onto legislation that would have established a housing authority for the state of Wyoming.
Twice, Goggles watched his bill rise and fail.
"We tried it twice, and it just didn't pan out," he said. "There really wasn't enough interest in establishing a Wyoming fair housing statute."
The bill died first in 2005 and again in 2007. It's unlikely to reappear anytime soon, he said.
The Wyoming Fair Housing Act would have set up Wyoming's own enforcement entity to carry out state-made housing laws governing lease terminations, sanitation conditions, discriminatory rental practices and the like. Currently, Goggles said, renters can file complaints with a federal fair housing office in Denver. A federal housing official then travels to the Wyoming location to investigate -- and potentially prosecute -- the complaint.
A state-level authority would have allowed Wyoming to prosecute fair housing violations on its home turf using Wyoming-based authorities, rather than require federal officials travel from out of state to address concerns voiced by Wyoming residents.
Goggles said the estimated cost of establishing a new state agency -- likely to be managed under the Wyoming Attorney General's Office -- was high, discouraging would-be supporters from backing the bill.
With its small population, he said, Wyoming's instances of housing discrimination are fewer and farther between than in a larger housing market. Still, Goggles said, cases of discrimination are equally as difficult to prove.
The Wyoming Fair Housing Act proposed a simple place to start -- with a definition. The bill defined discriminatory housing practices as unlawfully denying a dwelling on the basis of religion, color or race, and put explanations behind terms like "discrimination," "complainant" and "conciliation agreement" -- words not currently included in Wyoming's residential rental property statutes.
Six years have passed since the legislation was last proposed. Today, Goggles is the only co-sponsor still standing in the Legislature. Beyond lack of interest, Goggles said he doubts any legislation that adds new costs to an already constrained state budget would fare well in the upcoming budget session.
He thinks the legislation establishing a Wyoming-based housing authority would stand less of a chance today than it did back then.
"Adding new dollars rather than cutting just isn't conducive to this fiscally conservative environment," he said. "All these laws can be improved if we can find a way to improve them without adding dollars to our budget."
An in-depth analysis into the state's landlord tenant law -- last updated in 1999 -- would be ideal before launching any new fair housing legislation, Goggles said.
But such an analysis, he said, is "not even on my radar."
Landlord law in the West
Skyler Inn guests found no recourse in Wyoming's landlord-tenant law when a notice telling them to leave within a week was posted on their doors.
Holding written proof of residency and a driver's license printed with the hotel's Casper address, Sue Johnson, a guest who had been paying to live at the Skyler Inn for six months, asked anyone who would listen: "Aren't we residents?"
One of Wyoming's far western neighbors has a law on the books to address just that question.
California's civil code specifically addresses the legal needs of people who post up for long stays at hotels and motels. A person paying to live in a California hotel for 30 days or less is a guest, according to section 1940 of the state's civil code. A person paying to live in a California hotel for more than 30 days, though, is a tenant, fully vested with every protection provided under the state's landlord-tenant law.
Nothing as extensive exists in Wyoming.
Unless otherwise specified in a lease agreement, landlords in Wyoming can choose to terminate a rental agreement instead of remedying a complaint, so long as they give the tenant between 10 and 20 days' notice to find substitute housing. State statute tells landlords to address a tenant's complaint "within a reasonable time," but sets no time frame for action and no recourse for the tenant in the meantime.
State statutes in Nebraska and Montana require 30 days' notice before a month-to-month lease is terminated. Landlords in Nebraska and Montana must address a renter's complaint within 14 days of receiving notice. In Nebraska, statutes allow tenants the option to terminate the lease if 30 days pass with no action from the landlord. If a complaint in Montana results in an emergency, state statutes there say the 14-day time frame wherein a landlord must act shortens to three days.
South Dakota's state statutes allow a tenant the right to both withhold rent payments if a landlord neglects to remedy a complaint, and the right to make repairs himself or herself and deduct the cost from a rent payment. Wyoming's statutes do not provide either course of action for aggrieved tenants.
Johnson said hospitality businesses that take on extended stay guests, as the Skyler Inn did, should be held accountable to the same laws as any other residential landlord -- especially when the hotel is listed as a guest's primary residence.
"You're paying rent," she said of the extended-stay hotel business model. The Skyler Inn stopped charging sales tax on her monthly rental payments after she had lived there 30 days, she said.
With help from the Casper Housing Authority and Community Action Partnership, Johnson said, she and her family have since been relocated into a Casper home.
She said she's not looking to move anytime soon, and plans to never live in a hotel again.


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Sun, Feb 19, 06 at 7:10
I have been wating patiently for the flowers of my crassula perforata to open, and finally one has!
I just cant believe how tiny it is! First to give a sense of scale, the flower stem: And then I homed in one the very top where the first one opened, its kind of a greeny brown colour! |
Follow-Up Postings:
The lacy curtain,produces a beautiful background.A nice added touch. |
Small indeed, Larry. What about C.muscosa? I never knew this one flowers until someone told me. Look at it! Can you see those flowers? |
Here is a link that might be useful: Crassula muscosa
- Posted by greenlarry Eng 8/9 (My Page) on Mon, Feb 20, 06 at 16:01
Yes, can just about see them,at about the same scale as perforata,millimteres! |
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Antibiotic Armageddon: Modern Medicine on the Edge of the Abyss
Imagine a world in which antibiotics fail to effectively treat diseases and turn organisms that naturally reside in your body against you. After decades of over-prescribing and rapid bacterial evolution, this is a reality that most of the developed world may soon face, as bacteria are becoming increasingly resistant to the healing powers of prescription drugs. As bacteria develop stronger resistance, the popular sense of invincibility that modern medicine has may be over. In fact, Britain's Chief Medical Officer, Dame Sally Davies, describes the quickly developing resistance an "apocalyptic scenario."
Penicillin was discovered in the 1940s, fulfilling immunologist Paul Ehrlich's idea of a "magic bullet" that targets only disease-causing microbes without targeting the host, to treat bacterial infections.
From 1940 through 1970, substantial advances within the field of medicine were made, with the discovery of several new classes of antibiotics. More than 20 classes of antibiotics were produced in an antibiotic boom between 1940-1962. Antibiotic classes are different types of antibiotics that are bacteria specific, like Penicillan and Methicillin. Since then, research and development has slowed with the discovery of only two more classes within the last fifty years. This is problematic as there are fewer antibiotics to effectively combat bacterial evolution, exacerbating the resistance problems.
Dr. Laura Piddock, from the University of Birmingham, explains, "The emergence of antibiotic resistance is the perfect example of evolution." As the bacteria evolve, they build a resistance to the antibiotics available, making them essentially ineffective.
Too Much of a Good Thing?
As antibiotic discoveries flourished, their use became popularized to an extreme. Dr. Anders Hakansson, a researcher at the University at Buffalo, states, "In the past, there has been too much antibiotic use," explaining that antibiotics, which are specifically designed for bacteria, were prescribed to patients with viral infections. If antibiotics are unnecessarily prescribed to viral infections, "they can do more harm than good," advises the National Institute of Health. Between 1995 and 2003, the National Hospital Ambulatory Medical Care Survey found that at least fifty-four percent of children with sore throats were prescribed unnecessary antibiotics for A beta-hemolytic streptococci bacteria (strep throat), while only fifteen to thirty-six percent actually had the bacterial infection.
Every time antibiotics are introduced to the body, they attack specified microbes, killing the weak. The use of antibiotics creates a medically induced process of natural selection for the bacteria, encouraging the strong surviving microbes to multiply. Prescribing and using more antibiotics than needed accelerates the microbes' evolution, decreasing the effectiveness of available treatments. In many cases, when weak organisms are killed by antibiotics, the strong survivors create a new strain that is resistant to the antibiotic that was used previously. This is where the idea of "super bugs" comes from.
Doctors have been accused of over-prescribing antibiotics due to pressure from large pharmaceutical companies, from which they receive compensation. Heavy marketing campaigns by pharmaceuticals, via a "wining and dining" process, persuade medical practitioners to do the bidding of the industry. AstraZeneca spent over $250,000 compensating U.S. physicians just for speaking on their behalf. Several thousand more dollars were paid to doctors for "consulting fees, speaker compensation, research payments, meals, travel, educational items, royalties, license fees and ownership or investment interest."
Upon going in for routine illnesses like the common cold, which is a viral infection, patients have been known to specifically request antibiotics, under the impression that antibiotics will cure any and all illnesses. However, this antibiotic-dependent mindset can be attributed to the cultural of over-prescription created and nurtured by physicians. Adding to the accessibility of antibiotics is the development and popularization of "e-visits" where patients submit their symptoms to doctors via an online forum and receive treatment advice within a few hours. While it is seen as more convenient, and insurance companies like the potential for less expensive medical visits, patients receiving online care are prescribed more antibiotics than those having in-person visits. Furthermore, virtual patients run the risk of misdiagnosis as a result of incorrectly describing symptoms, increasing the likelihood of being prescribed and using inappropriate antibiotics.
In light of this issue, legislation in some states in the US, such as the Pharmaceutical and Device Manufacturer Code of Conduct in Massachusetts, has made it difficult for pharmaceutical companies to persuade doctors to use their drugs by prohibiting unnecessary "gifts" to doctors. Additionally, a federal law, the Physician Payment Sunshine Act, stipulates that pharmaceutical companies must disclose gifts of more than US$10 that are made to physicians or hospitals in order to ensure full transparency and discourage overly generous gifts.
Increasing criticism of over-prescribing has resulted in a heightened sense of antibiotic dependency. "There is definitely a problem, but it's getting better," says Hakansson about over-prescribing.
After several decades of over-prescribing, many doctors are attempting to reverse the antibiotic dependency. Efforts to reverse this trend are manifested in clinics and hospitals. In doctor's offices, there are posters and reminders that antibiotics will not cure every illness.
Dr. Ralph Gonzales from the University of California, San Francisco conducted a study in Pennsylvania investigating the effect that posters and reminders had on prescriptions for patients complaining of a cough, commonly known as bronchitis (a viral infection). Patients typically receive antibiotics, which are useless against viruses. Yet, when both practitioners and patients were exposed to reminders that antibiotics are not right for every infection, fewer antibiotics were unnecessarily prescribed.
While Decreasing Dependency, New Effective Drugs Still Crucial
While there is a push to decrease the use of antibiotics, and subsequently reduce resistant strains, there is still a necessity for effective drugs when it comes to bacteria like methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) and multi-drug-resistant Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MDR-TB).
In the last few decades, there has been a dwindling interest in antibiotic research and development. Pharmaceutical companies earn more money in daily, lifetime drugs like antiretrovirals for the treatment of HIV, as opposed to antibiotics that are used for only several days, such as those that treat Streptococcal pharyngitis (strep throat). Antibiotics do not create substantial revenue. It seems discordant then that the industry would try enticing physicians to prescribe their antibiotics. However, since antibiotics are still widely used, companies need to distribute as many as they can in an attempt to earn some profit. Yet these profits, despite zealous encouragement, are dwindling. Over twenty pharmaceutical companies were involved in antibiotic research in 1990. As of 2011, only two pharmaceutical companies, GlaxoSmithKline and AstraZeneca, are working on antibiotic development.
Despite the pharmaceutical industry's dwindling interest, there are several new antibiotics in the pipeline. However, "most are modifications of what is already on the market, and many will only be used as a last resort," says Dr. Hakansson. Modifications made to already marketed antibiotics in an effort to fight new resistant strains is significantly less expensive than developing entirely new drugs.
Beyond new drugs and antibiotic modifications, researchers at the University at Buffalo are looking at antibiotic complements that could strengthen the effectiveness of existing drugs to combat infections. One innovation showing promise is HAMLET (human alpha-lactalbumin made lethal to tumor cells), which is a protein-lipid in breast milk that has antibiotic abilities on its own. However, combining the protein with existing antibiotics creates a synergistic drug that makes bacteria more sensitive and vulnerable. So far, this research is a successful step forward in combating antibiotic-resistant strains of bacteria. Hakansson expresses optimism in the research thus far, stating, "we have not found any resistant organisms."
Anticipating the Apocalypse
While Dr. Hakansson assures that "we aren't there yet," the much alluded to antibiotic apocalypse is still "definitely a problem." When it comes to organisms that naturally reside in the body, the situation is getting worse, he explains. Although these common bodily microbes are generally harmless while they lie dormant, when we use antibiotics and they strengthen their resistance; so when they do attack, the infections are significantly more dangerous.
When it comes to how long we have until this "apocalypse," Dr. Piddock states, "There are no accurate estimates for how long this will be," but so far "most people think within the next 10 or 20 years."
If the antibiotic apocalypse occurs, as many health care professionals anticipate, health care costs could potentially soar as antibiotics become ineffective for treating bacterial infections and hospitalization becomes the norm, putting a severe strain on the existing system. An issue that once seemed a problem of the future is very much a problem for the present that needs rapid solutions, and fast. However, it is the research of doctors like Dr. Hakasson, who are looking for solutions to antibiotic resistant bacterial strains that provide optimism for the future and perhaps even a way to keep modern medicine firmly anchored to this side of the abyss.


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If I was baseball's version of Barbara Walters, in addition to having fabulous legs, I'd host a year end interview show in which I talked to the most interesting people in baseball that year and tried my hardest to make them cry on air.
My first interview request would go to Toronto Blue Jays manager Cito Gaston.
Gaston, a two-time World Series winning manager who never found managerial work outside of the Blue Jays organization is a fascinating study in race, attitude and baseball.
However, I'm not Barbara Walters. I'm a blog writer, and so the only thing I can do is wield what limited power I have to write a long form piece on Cito Gaston.
If that's not an inspiring pre-jump blurb, I don't know what is.
Born in 1944 to a Texan truck driving father and a mother who taught him from an early age to "say nice things or hold your tongue," Clarence Gaston was given the nickname Cito because of his resemblance to a Mexican wrestler who was popular in San Antonio during his youth.
A three sport star in high school, Gaston eventually signed with the Milwaukee Braves as an amateur free agent in 1964. He toiled in the Braves system before making his MLB debut in 1967 as a centre fielder. During his time with what were now the Atlanta Braves, Hank Aaron took Gaston under his wing.
Hank and I are good friends, and I've never expressed this to him, but he taught me how to be a man; how to stand on my own. Hank taught me how to handle my money and how to deal with many of those things associated with baseball off the field. He even taught me how to tie a tie. He was kind of a father-figure. And when you are younger and away from home, it's good to run into those type of people. I just thank God that I ran into Hank Aaron.
Gaston was left unprotected in the 1968 expansion draft, and the San Diego Padres selected him in the later rounds. In San Diego, Gaston excelled as a player, putting together a career year in 1970 by hitting 29 home runs and accumulating an OPS over .900.
Interestingly enough, Gaston, who later as a manager would become known for keeping players in the same place in the batting order no matter what the rest of the lineup looked like, hit almost exclusively from the third spot in his most successful season.
Gaston was eventually traded back to the Braves (where he became teammates with Dusty Baker), but he could never find the same success with the bat that he had earlier in his career. His final season as a player was split between Atlanta and Pittsburgh in 1978.
Four years later, Gaston was contacted by former Minor League teammate and manager Bobby Cox, who believed that his solid work ethic would make Cito an ideal hitting coach with the Toronto Blue Jays.
Seven years after that, on May 15, 1989, Gaston reluctantly took over the managerial duties from Jimy Williams, who had led the Jays to a dismal 12-24. Gaston's first season at the helm was miraculous in nature as he transformed the team from its lousy start into a division winner.
Under Gaston, the Jays finished second the following year, but won the AL East again in 1991, and as you may remember, brought the World Series trophy to Toronto in 1992 and 1993.
Cito Gaston was a hero on the Toronto sports scene. It was more of an afterthought to Toronto sports fans that he had become the first African-American manager to win not only one, but two World Series. However, after growing up in the South during the Civil Rights movement and witnessing the racism directed toward Hank Aaron first hand, it couldn't have been anything but a point of pride for Gaston.
Despite the baseball work stoppage and the departure of key players in addition to the Jays executive team of Paul Beeston and Pat Gillick, Gaston stuck around for four losing years with the Blue Jays before leaving the team with one week to go in the 1997 season. Things turned especially ugly earlier that year when Gaston accused Toronto Sun columnist Steve Simmons, Globe and Mail sports editor Dave Langford and FAN 590 radio host Bob McCown of being racists because of their ongoing criticism.
It was a strange accusation. Gaston was using the right to speak his mind, a right earned through the Civil Rights Movement, to accuse people of an attitude that the Civil Rights Movement had also changed. No one is pretending that the events of the fifties and sixties had eradicated racism, but it did do a lot to promote equality. Instead of being criticized because he was black, Gaston was being criticized because he was managing terrible teams.
Despite being close on a couple of occasions and even being offered roles as a hitting coach with other organizations, Gaston was never hired for another managing or coaching position. The former Jays manager grew bitter over what he believed to be racist treatment, and eventually refused to interview for positions because he believed he was only being used by teams looking to fulfill MLB's policy requiring them to interview minorities for managerial positions.
However, Gaston did return to the Blue Jays fold as a hitting coach and as a special assistant to the team, which he remained until being hired to replace John Gibbons as the team's manager in 2008.
The move was shocking. Gaston, who, despite his nominal position within the club, had been out of the manager game for ten years, was thrust back into the role mid season. Cynical Blue Jays fans saw the move as yet another attempt by team president Paul Godfrey to reach back to the past as a means of inspiring fan interest.
However, after Godfrey's resignation, and Paul Beeston's subsequent interim hiring, Gaston was brought back for another year, and then another final season after that. And that's where we find ourselves now: Cito Gaston is preparing to manage his final game in Toronto tonight.
These last two and a half seasons for Gaston have acted like a microcosm for his entire time in Toronto. Polarizing for some and confusing for many, Gaston is the best representative I could ever imagine for the duality of baseball.
On one hand you have Gaston The Good: A two-time World Series winning manager who brought success and attitude to Toronto. During his second time around, he also managed to draw out career years from Adam Lind and Jose Bautista in separate seasons, while maintaining an incredibly respectable record for a team many picked for dead last in the AL East.
On the other hand you have Gaston The Bad: A stubborn man, in and out of controversy, who in his earlier days seemed to have difficulty understanding motivations that weren't based in race. This stubbornness appeared in his second term with the club through dated in-game strategies and decisions to play veterans chasing milestones over rookies seeking experience.
It's almost fitting that in the game before Cito Gaston is honoured for all he's done for baseball in Toronto, he was ejected for arguing a call in which he was obviously in the wrong. Then today, we see this letter to the fans who have loved him and hated him for all he's brought to us.
That's our Cito. That's the most memorable manager in Blue Jays history.


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Largest fireworks display in Oregon to fill horizon with color and effects
Oregon Food Bank's Waterfront Blues Festival will celebrate its 25th birthday on the nation's birthday, Wednesday, July 4, with a spectacular display of fireworks … the largest July 4 fireworks display in Oregon.
The 2012 Safeway Waterfront Blues Festival, presented by First Tech Federal Credit Union, takes place July 4-8, at Tom McCall Waterfront Park. The Waterfront Blues Festival Fireworks Show starts at 10 p.m., after the evening's final performance and the National Anthem, performed by Linda Hornbuckle.
EntryEntry to the 2012 Safeway Waterfront Blues Festival, including the fireworks show, is a donation of $10 (or more) plus two cans (or more) of nonperishable food.
100 of all donations benefit Oregon Food Bank's mission: to eliminate hunger and its root causes … because no one should be hungry.
Simulcast by KINK.fmWestern Display Fireworks will fire the 2012 firework display from a barge on the Willamette River. Western Display choreographs the show to the tempo and intensity of a soundtrack produced and simulcast by KINK.fm 101.9. The 22-minute-show will include 11,800 shots.
Distinctive, specially-designed display "In celebration of the festival's 25th anniversary, we've designed distinctive opening and finale sequences," announced Heather Gobet, of Western Display Fireworks. "We special-ordered the products nearly a year ago to celebrate this major milestone.
"The opener will feature successive walls of red, white and blue, ending with 100 thundering salutes, launched simultaneously and stretching the entire length of the barge.
"The grand finale includes nearly 2,000 shots that we'll fire in under one minute," she said. "We'll launch this barrage of red, white and blue shells and multi-shot items out of specially-designed V-pattern mortars to fill the entire horizon with color and effects."
Five-generation family businessSince 1992, when Oregon Food Bank added fireworks to its Waterfront Blues Festival, Western Display Fireworks has produced the display with Bob Gobet, company owner, as the lead pyro-technician. The five-generation family business, located in Canby, Ore., originated in 1948 and has been producing fireworks shows for more than 60 years in the Northwest and around the United States.
Visit www.waterfrontbluesfest.com for details. Like the festival on Facebook and follow the festival on Twitter: facebook.com/waterfrontbluesfest, twitter.com/waterfrontblues.
About the Safeway Waterfront Blues FestivalThe Safeway Waterfront Blues Festival, presented by First Tech Federal Credit Union, is owned and produced by Oregon Food Bank, a charitable nonprofit, with the help of two-thousand volunteers to raise food and funds to help people who are hungry throughout Oregon and Clark County, Wash. It is Oregon Food Bank's largest fundraiser.
About Oregon Food BankOregon Food Bank believes no one should be hungry. With sufficient public will and support of the entire community, we believe it is possible to eliminate hunger and its root causes.
Since 1982, Oregon Food Bank has been leading the fight against hunger in Oregon and Clark County, Wash., by collecting and distributing food through a network of four OFB branches and 16 independent regional food banks.
The OFB Network helps nearly 1 in 5 households fend off hunger. OFB also leads statewide efforts to increase resources for hungry families and to eliminate the root causes of hunger through advocacy, nutrition education, garden education and helping communities strengthen local food systems. Last year, the OFB Network distributed more than 1 million emergency food boxes throughout Oregon and southwest Washington. For more information, visit www.waterfrontbluesfest.com.
Festival sponsors The 2012 Safeway Waterfront Blues Festival is presented by First Tech Federal Credit Union.
Major sponsors include: The Oregonian, KINK.fm, iQ Credit Union, FedEx, KIA Motors, Schnitzer Steel, Pepsi, Miller Lite, Deschutes Brewery, Mission Foods.
Supporting sponsors include: Schwindt & Co., NW Natural, Regal Cinemas, The Boeing Company, Health Net, Caring Ambassadors Program, OregonLive.com and Delta Music Experience (DME), EcoShuttle, SmartPark, Good Neighbor Pharmacy, Earth2o Water, Chateau Ste. Michelle, Frito Lay, Yoshida, Dave's Killer Bread, Dreyer's, Larabar, Cascadian Farms, KBOO, Music Millennium, Oregon Music News, PrimePay, Sunbelt Rentals, Maverick Marketing, Portland Community College, Cascade Blues Association, Winthrop Rhythm & Blues Festival, Karolyn H. March, attorney, Confederated Tribes of Grand Ronde, Cascade Zydeco Association, RiverPlace Hotel, Hotel Fifty, Marriott Hotel, Portland North Harbour Collection by Marriott, St. Stephens Table.
The Waterfront Blues Festival is owned and operated by Oregon Food Bank.
Be the first to know who's coming to the festival. Find out about new festival events and features. Sign up for your free Blues E-News.


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Vanguard® Outback 30Z Camo Double - Pistol Case
Item # WX2-181447
- Google+
This item is shipped directly from the factory. To see the expected shipping date, please add to your Shopping Cart. Sorry, no express shipping available. We are unable to ship factory direct items to Alaska, Hawaii, Puerto Rico or APO or FPO addresses.
- Details & Specs
Vanguard® Outback 30Z Camo Double - Pistol Case. Protects your guns from hard knocks and accidental drops!
For your hunting safaris and cross-country treks, the Outback delivers durability you can trust. Has a solid, composite hard case with the upper and lower lids in one solid piece that's free of seams, joinery or fasteners. In short, it's a no-nonsense protector that's built to last for years.
Lightweight too... weighs just 3 1/ 2 lbs.! And there's an emphasis on security with a numbered key-specific lock and padlock holders. Your guns stay in the right hands, for the right price!
All the good stuff:- Securely holds 2 pistols
- Strong, lightweight molded polyethylene construction is designed to "flex" when struck to absorb major impact and protect your firearms
- Vanguard® Illusion camouflage finish helps keep you under the radar
- High-density foam interior is a soft cradle for your guns
- Inside dimensions: 15 3/ 5 x 8 1/ 8 x 4 3/ 8 "
- Outside dimensions: 16 1 / 8 x 8 7 / 8 x 4 7 / 8 "
- Wide, stable rubber feet stand the Case upright to keep the body safely above the ground.
Pick yours up, ONLINE!
- Reviews
Vanguard Outback 30Z Camo Double - Pistol Case is rated out of 5 by 1.Rated 5 out of 5 by KENNY from This item says discontinued, but I would really like to get it!! Will it be back in stock? Thanks KennyDate published: 2013-04-24
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- Articles & Tips
Don't Forget
5 - Pk. of 15" Cable Gun Locks
Buyer's Club $17.99 Non-Members $19.99 -
6-Pk. Gun Wipes
Buyer's Club $6.29 Non-Members $6.99 -
Guide Gear Stereo Hearing Protection
Buyer's Club $17.99 Non-Members $19.99
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Plano® Gun Guard XLT - 12 Double Pistol Case
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Plano® Gun Guard DLX 4 - pistol Case
Buyer's Club $67.49 Non-Members $74.99


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Arguably, the greatest benefit derived from the new Twitter List feature is that it serves to validate contributors on Twitter (and in turn, filter out spammers).
Anyone who uses Twitter is unfortunately inundated with Twitter Followers who we suspect are nothing more than MLM (Multi Level Marketing) Teeth Whitening Donald Trump Networkers. And that's not counting the disgusting amount of smut. Spam filters have effectively cleaned up our email inboxes, but a new home has been found for these "TwitStars". Perhaps another reason 60% of Twitter usersquit after one month?
The Direct Message (DM) Feature has been hacked by the latest quiz thingy, but once you get past the dark side, Twitter can be a great career resource. To quote Attorney Brent Britton, "LinkedIn is your resume. Twitter is your personality."
Twitter is the ultimate example of social media reciprocity. You follow me. I follow you (exceptions noted above). You re-tweet me. I look for an opportunity to re-tweet you.
One quickly discovers that the number of followers someone has doesn't measure the person's value or degree of influence. We've all seen Twitter accounts with 32,763 following and 30,873 followers.
Welcome Twitter Lists.
Every Twitter account has the number of times they are "Listed" by other people. The lists are user created so the lists may be for anything (e.g. social media experts, career resources, uva alumni), but when I see someone with 30,873 followers and 11 listed… uh, no thanks. You are "followed" by 30,873 users, but only 11 would add you to one of their lists. Hmm…
Twitter's new feaure has let the people filter out the noise.
So the question is… Do we hire the person on the most Twitter lists?
Taken in isolation, the answer is obviously no. But if I am looking to hire a social media consultant to help my business, and Twitter is a part of his (or her) social media services proposal, will I will check the number of times the person is "Listed"? The answer is an absolute yes.
Will there be a time in the near future when all employers compare Twitter List counts for candidates?
So if you are using Twitter to promote your professional credibility, how do you get on more Twitter lists?
Here are seven simple suggestions:
1. Contribute unique content for your field. Ideally, set up your own blog to express your own opinions and research.
2. Share articles written by other professionals. This is a great starting point if you are not ready to blog yourself, but you should continue to share other people's opinions and research on a regular basis.
3. Follow other professionals on Twitter. This is a logical way to "become known". Your best source for the right people to follow in your industry (read: non spammers) is to follow people on other people's lists and to follow who they follow (because one would assume they have already filtered out the spam).
4. Create your own lists of professionals on Twitter in your field and retweet their contributions. Remember the Twitter principle of reciprocity!
5. Start a discussion thread within one of your LinkedIn Groups to promote Twitter accounts of group members. This works really well. The best example I have seen of this approach is the Project Network which was started in LinkedIn.
6. Create a Twitter profile that diversifies your interests. Someone else may add you to their Twitter list for local professionals, an alumni group, or your charity work. You never know what you may have in common.
7. Publicly thank people who re-tweet your contributions (don't use Direct Messages – thank them in your twitter feed). People on Twitter who extend gratitude regularly and publicly, I always look for more of their content to re-tweet. People who do not take the time to thank me or other people who share their content, I take it personally to be honest (engaging with customers directly is the very purpose of social media). I simply stop sharing their contributions on Twitter.
For additional reference, my next article outlines 8 Ways to Say Thank You on Twitter.
On a side note, it is amazing the number of authors (we're not talking best selling authors with 60K followers here) who do not take 10 seconds to extend a simple thanks to customers who publicly and positively acknowledge their work on Twitter. When that has happened to me as a customer, not only do I stop sharing their contributions on Twitter, I stop recommending their work outside of Twitter. It's not that I start saying negative things (that would be inappropriate). I simply stop saying anything at all.
For the authors who do respond with a simple note, I go out of my way to continue to recommend their work to other people outside of Twitter. I don't think the other authors know how much business they are losing via word of mouth (or lack there of).
Sound unreasonable? When customers extend positive feedback to me about my company's product, would I expect them to continue to spread word of mouth if I ignored them? Of course not.
Don't forget with social media, everything is personal.
If you don't want to engage with your colleagues and clients publicly and directly, stop using Twitter! It will likely do you more harm than good.
I look forward to your feedback.
Tags:Promoting communication habits to help you inspire others every day.
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Hello there from SE Michigan!
We have spring fever with this warm weather now in January. We are looking to plant a new prennial bed this spring and thought maybe totally of diffeent bee balms to attrack hummers. Any suggestion of what types and colors, one of the reasons for bee balm by itself we would not have to worry about it taking over and going into other parts of the garden. A couple of years ago we planted some and put them in a sunkin 5 gallon paint pail as we did with our obedient plant and it kept them contained. Also what other prennials might work in this bed for hummers?? With bee balm being such a hardy plant for taking over should we stick to bee balm???? Thanks Happy Spring |
Follow-Up Postings:
Have you thought about milkweed (asclepias incarnata)? There are some new hybrids in dark pink and a white (Milkmaid) that I'm thinking of growing. Of course, this is a main food source for Monarch butterfly caterpillars, so you might get a built-in teaching module for kids! The fragrance is gorgeous, too -- reminds me of my grandmother's face-powder. A shrub I'm fond of is the Beauty Bush (kolkwitzia) which is covered in small pink orchid-like blooms in June. Mine is about 4' tall and across, with arching branches. Long lived, too. The real attraction for humming birds is the colour red, and tubular flowers. Scarlet salvia and vine honeysuckle have worked best for me. Good luck! |
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LOL Vixen.. and thanks lilo.. i just sit around and think up things..LOL
Printable View
LOL Vixen.. and thanks lilo.. i just sit around and think up things..LOL
lol... sorry!! you said post some pics..LOL
brent made the shelf
and the mickey table
and the valance shelf over the window
a height chart.
i have all the numbers and marking on it now
my first try at painting a picture
sorry guys ok i'm done for a while...LOL
come vixen i know you have a ton too
I love looking at what you all create! Chrissy&Tayen, that painting is awesome!
thanks.. i did it for my hubby
Great job on the painting. At least your people look like ...well People...LOL I can duplicate any form except humans. I do have a bunch of stuff but need to take pics. I just finished Meghyn's hairbows for her first day of school .. :rolleyes: NOW she dont want to wear the dress they match, she wants to wear a pink one...guess what ? she is wearing the original one weather she wants to or not...LOL I still have to finish the bracelet to match (by Monday nite..sigh) so I will post them together. Brent is a very talented woodworker Chrissy.
you sound like me... if you look she is crying the pic were i had her try on her costume....LOL i'm like the longer she wears it she'll get use to it...LOL
thanks.. brent would love to hear that.. he didnt start working with wood until he made that shelf.. he is makng her a outside play house right now
I LOVE the mouse ears with the pumpkin on it.
thanks Lori.. those are our bride and groom ears for our trip!! i need to get some booby pins to hold it to my head..LOL
LOL...would you rather not have bobby pins???? Wow...even guys would buy them if they were called booby...LOL...sorry have to laugh a little bit.
Wow! With the number of posts on this thread I thought I has missed the thread but no, it's all from today! Great stuff!


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My Profile
Downtown Foodie
United States
Member since Dec 2011
Flag This ProfileFlag as Inappropriate
Reviewed Honey Ricotta Cheesecake
Dec 23, 2011 in Food Network Community Toolbox on FoodNetwork.com
"I saw this on Giada's "Everyday Italian" show a few years back. Everyone raves about it. Ever since I started making this cheesecake, I've been the cheesecake king among my family and friends. As with any recipe, follow it to the letter and it will be a smash! Guaranteed!"""


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HMRC continues to target Football Clubs
Truro City FC is the latest club to be targeted by HMRC for unpaid taxes. The Winding Up Petition is due to be heard in the High Court on 31st October. As the Petition has been advertised, the club's bank account will have been frozen, adding to its woes.
Tell me what you're thinking...
and oh, if you want a pic to show with your comment, go get a gravatar!


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Welcome to MPI Products LLC
In 1969 MPI was founded as a pioneer of the fineblanking industry in the United States. MPI has established itself as a global leader and highly specialized supplier of fineblanked components and continues to be a pioneer in innovative die design, process engineering and customer service.
MPI is the largest fineblanking organization in North America, with respect to dollar volume sold, number of employees, and concentration of heavy tonnage fineblanking equipment. Each facility is a center of excellence, focusing on individual product specialties. MPI products all begin with a fineblanking basis. To provide our customers with the finished components, assemblies, and systems required in industry today, MPI offers a diversity of value-added options.
Download our latest brochure English version pdf Japanese version pdf
Fineblanking Fineblanking is a high-precision, near-net process combining principles of metal stamping and cold-forming. Different from conventional metal stamping, fineblanking incorporates the use of special triple action presses. Three concurrent forces - clamping pressure, blanking pressure, and counter pressure - act in conjunction to extrude parts from strip or coil material. Learn More
Value-Added Finishing Products produced by MPI begin with the fineblanking process. To support the extended needs of our customers, MPI offers full service finishing and assembly capabilities. These services include: Assembly, Double-Disk Grinding, Finegrinding, Blanchard Grinding, Lapping, Deburring, CNC Machining, Broaching, Tapping, Honing, Orbital Forming, Calibrating, Welding and more. Learn More
Engineering, Design & Technical Support Whether design requirements are basic in nature or require extensive collaboration, MPI is committed to working with our customers to develop programs that best meet our customers' needs. Each MPI operation hosts full tool-build services. Combining years of experience with routine investment in technology and training, tool manufacture remains an area of expertise at MPI. Learn More
MPI Products LLC 2129 Austin Ave Rochester Hills, MI 48309 Ph: 248-237-3007 Fax: 248-844-2544
Manufacturing Locations
MPI Overview: Company Background | Locations | News Articles | Company Policies Fineblanking Technology: Process Fundamentals | Frequently Asked Questions MPI Capabilities: Customer Focus | Fineblanking | Value-Added Finishing | Engineering & Support Fineblanking Product Applications: Industry Specific | Automotive | Assemblies Market Leadership | Careers | Submit a Drawing | Home | Email


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Partnership Enrollment Program (PEP)
Since fall 2009 Southwest Tennessee Community College and the University of Memphis (U of M) have partnered to offer a Partnership Enrollment Program that guarantees university admission to any student who completes the associate's degree university track (A.A. or A.S.). The agreement benefits students by reducing the total cost of higher education by encouraging students to complete the associate's degree at the community college. Students also benefit from improved and collaborative academic advising and by completion of Partnership contracts. This agreement provides only for general admission to the U of M. Requirements for admission to individual academic programs may vary. By making this choice early in their academic career, students will receive advising and access to some U of M services and activities prior to their admission to the U of M.
Check out the Pre-Transfer and PEP Advising Schedule.


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How to Sell Your Baseball Cards
Vintage Grading Card Standards
How to Identify Your Vintage Baseball Cards
Baseball Card Glossary - Or, What is a Rookie Card?
International Baseball Players and Baseball Cards
Fill Your Baseball Card Want List
2000 Utica Blue Sox
Babe Ruth Baseball Legend
Giant Rookie Baseball Card Collection
How Baseball is Played
Baseball Cards Only - Search Card Inventory by Year and Brand
2007 Sweet%20Spot Baseball Cards
Page #1 | Total Pages = 0
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The Garbank brothers finished a season with the exact same batting average.
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Baseball Cards Only 2014


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Sat, Jan 5, 13 at 15:38
Haven't been on here in ages...Thought I would check in and see what everyones doing. I've been working on the bathroom rock wall and some Chritmas gifts (Raven) got a new saw for Christmas but have yet had time to use it (soon though). looks like everyone has been busy too!! Love seeing all the new projects!!! Hope all had a great Christmas &Happy New Year everyone from Alaska!! |
Follow-Up Postings:
hi Cathy! happy new years! post some pics soon! |
- Posted by cathyscache (My Page) on Sat, Jan 5, 13 at 21:27
Happy New Year to You Nice!!!! I will when I get more porjects going!!! Thx... |
- Posted by slowmedown (My Page) on Sun, Jan 6, 13 at 8:16
Nice to see you back, CATHY. Anxious to see your bathroom progress. |
welcome back! |
Hi, does anyone have suggestions on prep,on glass medium before painting on outside of glasses to be used, but hand washed. |
- Posted by slowmedown (My Page) on Tue, Jan 15, 13 at 9:41
Be sure the glass is oil free - clean w/alcohol. |
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Description Facilities Map Tofo Beach Cottages offers a selection of five self-catering cottages, spread throughout Tofo and Tofinho. The cottages offer rustic-style accommodation and are equipped to cater for typical South African families of four to eight people. All cottages are uniquely styled and offer rustic and homely atmospheres. The cottages are equipped with cutlery, crockery, bedding and furnishing - all the basics needed for a pleasant stay. Please note that no television is available; this is truly a place where you can reconnect. Casa Quentin enjoys breathtaking views over Tofinho Bay and has three bedrooms, sleeping up to six people. Casa Gideon enjoys Tofinho's prime location and has three bedrooms, sleeping up to eight people. Casa Leneé sleeps four and offers guests a one-bedroom cottage with a loft. Casa Rustic and Casa Da Relva sleep six and eight guests respectively in rustic houses built with half brick and half reed. Whatever your needs or the size of your party, we have something for you. Type: Self-cateringSleeps: 32 Check-in: 02:00 PM Check-out: 10:00 AM Reviews: 1 Parking AvailableLaundry Facilities*Braai/BarbecueLanguages SpokenGermanAfrikaansPortuguese* Please enquire for further details. Toggle Street View * We rely on Google's mapping service, and the location information supplied to us to show street view images. Please use street view as a guide only as we cannot guarantee its accuracy.
Why use SafariNow? Over 140000 establishmentsBest price guarantee No booking fees Over 104000 customer reviews Need to speak to us?(South Africa) 0861 801 802(International) +27 21 710 5800


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blue's blog archive for 'general'
April 9, 2014
Cypress Summer
Warmer weather is just around the corner, and we're seeing plenty of fresh new designs to suit the changing seasons! The latest issue of knit.wear is full of project ideas to build your spring and summer wardrobe such as the V-Line Tee by Bonnie Nurnberger. This lacy top is knit in Blue Sky Alpacas Alpaca Silk, a lightweight 50/50 blend with excellent stitch definition. It features flattering shaping elements and a romantic, all-over lace pattern to create a top you'll want to wear year-round!
The Details
Designer: Bonnie Nurnberger
Size: 45½ (47½, 49½, 51½, 53½)" bust circumference
Size 4 (3.5mm) 24" circular needles, or size needed to obtain gauge
Size 5 (3.75mm) needles, or size needed to obtain gauge
Yarn: Blue Sky Alpacas Alpaca Silk, shown in Cypress #152
Pattern available in knit.wear Spring/Summer 2014.
Filed under: General | Tagged: knit.wear, knitting patterns, lace, spring, summer knitting | Comments Off | Share [+]
March 27, 2014
The Best Way to Block Alpaca
This isn't exactly what we had in mind–but he sure is cute! He's also an excellent addition to any fiber-lover's studio space. Create your own Ollie-like alpaca (or an entire herd) using this cute kit from Nanoblock.
Filed under: General | Tagged: Inspiration | Comments Off | Share [+]
March 19, 2014
Jet Set and Ready to Knit
Part of the Jet Set Collection in the latest issue of Vogue Knitting, the Short Sleeve Raglan Tee takes a basic shape and gives it an elegant twist. Light and fresh for summer, the mesh lace stitches miter at the center front and center back to create figure-flattering chevrons. Knit in Blue Sky Alpacas Skinny Cotton, it's the perfect piece to pack along on your next getaway.
The Details
• Size 5 (3.75mm) needles, or size needed to obtain gauge
Filed under: General | Tagged: News | Comments Off | Share [+]
March 12, 2014
Out Like a Lamb
Spring is supposed to be warm, sunny, and rejuvenating. The reality tends more toward damp, rainy, and unpredictable. The temperature is all over the map and we're left wondering what to wear. Cotton dress or down coat? Snow boots or sandals?
New York designer Dora Ohrenstein understands the fickle nature of the changing seasons and designed the Mentha Cardigan to suit. The pale, pretty color (Plume); light, airy yarn (Blue Sky Alpacas Alpaca Silk); and feminine lace and shell stitch crochet pattern are all about spring; short sleeves and a cardigan silhouette make it perfect for layering on days that start with a chill and end with a warm breeze.
The Details
Designer: Dora Ohrenstein
Size F (3.75mm) hook, or size needed to obtain gauge
Filed under: General | Tagged: News | Comments Off | Share [+]
March 6, 2014
The snow will melt, the sun will shine, the grass will green, and you'll need a versatile sweater like the Millay Jacket to ease you into the spring season. This lovely layering piece (don't you just love the lace stitches and asymmetric closure?) is from the Spring 2014 issue of Interweave Knits and is stitched in sumptuous Blue Sky Alpacas Metalico. It's the perfect project to put on your needles in anticipation of the warmer days ahead.
The Details
Designer: Veronik Avery
Size: 32 (36, 40, 44, 48, 52)" bust circumference, buttoned
Size 4 (3.5mm) 24" circular needle, or size needed to obtain gauge
Yarn: Blue Sky Alpacas Metalico, shown in Flint #1614
Pattern available in Interweave Knits, Spring 2014
Filed under: General | Tagged: News | Comments Off | Share [+]