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All for One and One for All
New Team-based Mechanics for Deathwatch |
Deathwatch | Published 14 May 2010 |
by Ross Watson
Greetings, Deathwatch fans!
The Deathwatch is a unique organisation where Space Marines from different Chapters across the Imperium of Man are brought together to serve together in the same, small unit known as a Kill-team. When I turned this concept over in my mind, I found myself often focusing on the thought of what it must be like to be placed into that situation with complete strangers; some might become friends, others bitter rivals. The interpersonal dynamic of such a group would be fascinating. I returned again and again to the idea of learning to work together—to give up the "Space Wolf way" to solve a problem (for one example), and instead concentrate on "the Kill-team way"—captured my imagination. Battle-Brothers of the Deathwatch are often thrust into dire situations, sometimes alongside allies they may not trust. During the course of his service with the Deathwatch, a Battle-Brother learns to overcome many of his prejudices and misunderstandings...
Part of the core experience of the Deathwatch RPG involves roleplaying as a Space Marine sent on the most dangerous of special missions, and I wanted the mechanics of the game to support that! The "Project Iceberg" team and I designed Deathwatch around the idea that the experience should revolve around the team dynamic, from a group of strangers learning to work together to the hardened veteran Deathwatch Battle-Brothers who form a nigh-unstoppable squad. In this, I was inspired by source material like the WWII series Band of Brothers and the Knights of the Round Table in Mallory's L'Morte D'Arthur.
The difference between the group and the individual definitely had a strong influence on my design for Deathwatch, and this concept about individual sacrifice for the good of the team evolved into a set of three linked mechanics for Deathwatch: Solo Mode, Squad Mode, and Cohesion.
Because I have been an avid player of the Warhammer 40,000 tabletop game for years, I have had many opportunities to watch Space Marines in action (at least, in miniature form!). More than a few times I would marvel at a particular commander, captain, or special character, but I would also take note of how a particular Squad, working together, could vanquish even the greatest of foes; a Tyranid Carnifex, Chaos Daemon Prince, or Eldar Avatar.
Space Marines are considerably dangerous on their own; they are the supreme warriors of the Imperium, the most deadly of soldiers. How much more impressive, then, would a force of Space Marines be when working together as a group? The challenge then would be to somehow model that idea within the mechanics of the Deathwatch RPG.
Solo Mode
The first thing I needed to do was to define when a Space Marine was acting on his own; this would be called "Solo Mode." When in Solo Mode, a Space Marine is operating based on the traditions, beliefs, and methods of war ingrained into him by his Chapter. A Dark Angel in Solo Mode is acting and fighting as if he were part of his Dark Angels squad. Therefore, a Space Marine in Solo Mode is using abilities that are most representative of his home Chapter.
Solo Mode is the default mode of play for all characters. Unless otherwise indicated by the rules, a Battle-Brother is in this mode. While in Solo Mode, a Space Marine is not linked to the rest of his squad in any special way and cannot benefit from Squad Mode actions or abilities used by his Battle-Brothers. He has access to all of his Solo Mode actions and abilities and may use these freely.
Example Solo Mode Ability: Feat of Strength
The Kill-team is in a desperate race to reach the spaceport in time to board their Thunderhawk before cyclonic torpedoes destroy the planet from orbit. However, a burning wreck of a Chimera APC blocks their path; the Space Marine focuses his righteous wrath and, with a heroic feat of strength, heaves the wreckage aside so that he and his Battle-Brothers may pass unhindered.
Required Rank: 1
Effects: Space Marines are genetically gifted with great strength far exceeding. that or normal men. In times of need, a Battle-Brother can push this great brawn to its limits to perform truly impressive feats. Once per day of game time, a Battle-Brother may perform a Feat of Strength. This ability effectively increases his Unnatural Strength Trait by one level, so for instance Unnatural Strength x2 becomes Unnatural Strength x3. This effect lasts for a number of Rounds equal to his Rank.
Improvement: At Rank 3 and above Feat of Strength also adds +10 to all Strength Tests and Strength-based Skill Tests for its duration. At Rank 5 and above Feat of Strength last for a number of Rounds equal to twice the character's Rank. At Rank 7 and above, Feat of Strength increases the character's Unnatural Strength Trait by two levels.
Squad Mode
However, in the Deathwatch, a Dark Angels Space Marine is not surrounded by other Dark Angels. Instead, he is placed with Battle-Brothers of the Storm Wardens, the Ultramarines, and possibly even a rival from the Space Wolves. When the Dark Angel is acting as part of his Kill-team, he is moving out of Solo Mode and entering Squad Mode. In Squad Mode, Space Marines work together, each acting in concert with his Battle-Brothers. A Kill-team in Squad Mode is a terrifying foe for the enemies of Man; Squad Mode abilities allow the entire group to move and shoot as one, to lay down covering fire during an advance, lure the foe into a trap, and much more.
Squad Mode can only be entered deliberately (often by a character using an action). While in Squad Mode, a Space Marine is linked to any other members of his team that are also in Squad Mode and may benefit fully from Squad Mode actions and abilities. A character in Squad Mode can also initiate Squad Mode actions and abilities for the benefit of other team members also in this mode.
Example Squad Mode Ability: Tactical Spacing
The Kill-team has been deployed deep behind enemy lines in order to find—and assassinate—an enemy leader. During the journey, the Kill-team keeps a wary watch, for this region is heavily patrolled by the enemy and filled with traps. The Space Marines stand ready to knock a Battle-Brother out of the way of enemy fire or warn him of stepping upon a hidden explosive.
Action: Full Action
Cost: 1
Sustained: Yes
Effects: Formation and spacing are an important part of a squad's function on the battlefield and influence their ability to warn each other of danger and defend themselves against attack. While this ability is in effect, the Battle-Brother and those in Support Range of him can share their Reactions. For example, one member of the Kill-team could give his Reaction (losing it for himself for the turn) to another member of the Kill-team to use. If the Space Marine has extra reactions (such as the bonus reactions granted from the Step Aside Talent), these may also be shared.
Improvement: If the Battle-Brother is Rank 5 or more, in addition to being able to share Reactions within the group, all members gain an additional Reaction while this ability is in effect.
It is important to note that the example Squad Mode ability above has a cost listed. The resource that a Kill-team uses to activate Squad Mode abilities is known as Cohesion. This resource is gained when the Kill-team is assigned a mission (don't worry—I will be going over how Missions work in a future Designer Diary!), and is then used during the mission to activate Squad Mode abilities. Cohesion can also be reduced, however, by being hit with certain weapons (if the Kill-team is knocked around by high explosives, for example) or by certain abilities possessed by a powerful enemy (a Chaos Daemon Prince, for example, has an Aura of Death that reduces a Kill-team's Cohesion...the warp-tainted presence of the Daemon Prince causes confusion and spreads strife wherever he goes). Certain abilities and wargear (such as a back banner!) may increase or have an effect on regaining Cohesion.
Forward, Battle-Brothers!
I hope you've all enjoyed this brief overview of Solo Mode, Squad Mode, and Cohesion! I will definitely have more to say about these mechanics in the future, so keep an eye on the FFG website as we delve deeper over the next few weeks into what makes the team-based roleplaying experience of Deathwatch so unique and compelling!
Deathwatch is a roleplaying game in which players take on the roles of the bio-engineered super-soldiers known as Space Marines. United with their battle-brothers, players will complete extraordinary missions involving some of the greatest heroes and deadliest opponents the Warhammer 40,000 universe has to offer.
I had the wonderful opportunity to playtest this game. I can tell you from experience (I have over 20+ years gaming RPGs, minis, etc.) that these mechanics are neither complex nor cumbersome. There's more to playing a Space Marine than just killing the foes of the Emperor. One of the reasons the Deathwatch was chosen was to give players the flexbility to play a Space Marine and be able to go out and conduct missions in a manner similar to characters from other games. The Solo/Squad system meshes in nicely and really reflects how a Space Marine would react if he were put into a group of total strangers. Sometimes he would be able to act on his own (or have to) and others he would rely upon his squadmates. It's actually much simpler than you think and works very well.
It helps to think of these guys as you would an SG team from Stargate SG-1 (the best analogy I can think of for how Deathwatch Kill Teams are handled). A team is selected (i.e. the PCs) and they are sent out to conduct a mission within certain parameters. By giving them the ability to switch between solo and squad, you are able to open up a wider range of abilities that each Chapter has. Throw in Cohesion and you can see how the squad reacts under pressure.
All I can say is trust what is coming and you won't be disappointed.
So I have been waiting for 10 years to have a game with Astartes in, but this seems more like a descent/doom then an rpg.
One of the beauties of roleplay is just that - acting out the character, and though Astartes have a very similar attitude - kill xenos, the black library books have provided many intersting characters.
I understand the military neccessity of the game, and as such restrictions in how you play (think classic d&d paladin), but having alternative mechanics for play type seems more complex then needs be.
Deathwatch does not just have to be about squad mechanics and blowing up the bad guy, (40K wargame does that) but needs to reflect more the why's and wherefores of the character, how he accepts his new role in the Deathwatch, what it is to be squaded with legions and Astartes he does not know or maybe even understand.
With potentially hundreds of years of legion specific dogma, training and tactics to be incumbered with people who don't understand needs to be as much a feature of the game as grouping up and destroying Xenos.
The opportunity to play a god (as far as the average imperial citizen is concerned) is fantastic, and like any game I am sure the enemies you will face will be tuned to the capabilities of the characters, so combat isn't the be all and end all of the game in my opinion.
It would be nice to see thoughts on how this interaction will exist in a role-playing environment.
As to the Player vs character argument, I have run many tournament games with a wide range of players - the types who want to roll vs a skill, and the type that wants to get a result by pure roleplay ignoring skills on the character sheet, and I don't think any game can cope with the variety, imagination and cunning of individual players, and such choices are simply down to the Game Master to resolve, one would hope in the best interest of the game.
Also is there any chance we will see a Heresy expansion for Deathwatch ever - because as far as roleplaying interesting elements, this would be the daddy.
Marines have never been satisfactorally represented in an RPG before, it's a huge challenge and personally I like that Demeanors and these new Marine-specific tactical mechanics give PC's powerful new combat and social/skill options without harming Roleplaying opportunities, I could forsee the Kill-Team Captain geting a discount on initiating squad orders if he roleplays the instructions in a suitably dramatic or professional manner.
Gotta remember that yes, it's an RPG, but it's a Military RPG, so a lot of mechanics will cover how amazing Astartes are in combat, and any mechanic that encourages your PC's to behave like Marines in character is fine by me.
One of the primary goals of role-playing, even before it was applied to games was to help people express themselves in ways that were impossible in their personal lives, to cultivate the ability to work together and communicate well in a group with others and to develop social ability.
It is true what you say, that the skills are used in this way by players that are not very social, but then again when they roll for a charm without saying anything adequate, they are not role-playing. Personally, no I wouldn't auto fail them, but give them another chance to make it up by replying something appropriate. Now, if they weren't able to do it in the first place..well.. If an actor decides to assume a role for a play when his acting skills are poor to non-existent, maybe he should give up acting or start practicing in order to improve themselves.
Unless of course the character they are playing isn't very good at Charm or isn't charasmatic. The point of the roll is it should reflect your characters abilities rather than going off the players abilities. If the player tries to charm and says something unconvincing should they auto fail as well?
I agree on your example with the Charm skill and indeed, if the dialogue which the player role-played is well played out and sufficient, no roll needs to be made to cement that success. Let's not forget that the rules are meant to support role-playing, not replace it.
That said, we'll wait patiently and see what they have in stock for us in the future, although, as they say in the grim darkness of the far future: " Hope is the first step on the road to disappointment " :-)
I, too, harbor doubts regarding this rule. It also moves the whole group one step away from roleplaying "by the seat of your pants" and towards a tactical wargame, where violent scenes are step-by-step die exercises rather than fluid moments of drama. It makes the game more like 40k, yes. And there's not much roleplay in how groups work there. Basically, my reservations are the same as for making Charm rolls after an acted out attempt at actually winning the other guy over by player dialogue. Even if you, as a GM, give positive mods to the roll it can fail - no matter how the case was presented by the player. So why roll at all? Either it's roleplayed convincingly, or not. In the same way, individual Marines will either cooperate beautifully or not.
Still, I'd like to read the full rule before deciding for or against. This small teaser probably doesn't do it justice, in the grand scheme of things.
I will admit that I share opinions with some of the people here, particularly regarding these modes and how they will assist or obstruct the role-playing capacity of a group. I would like my players to decide and work together because they choose to put their differences aside (if any) in front of their oaths, the Inquisition and the protection of mankind against any and all foes. It would be excellent if the willingness to cooperate and listen to one another was due to the trust was developed and earned in game with role playing and not simply because some rule dictated that "if we work together we can use *those* abilities and get another +10 on the test, or +1d10 on the damage roll"
Like some, I like that Dark Heresy is not level-based and that Now, I am sure that if one takes some time to read what the core book says about their career they can easily plan they way their character will evolve, without burning up brain cells from triple-analysing the various " vicroty algorithms" like in other games of the genre.
Other than that, I am having my reservations about the abilities and the way they are utilized, because it reminds me of games that everything had a rule, a card, a meter or a counter (like wfrp for instance) which over-complicated the game, albeit making it more beautiful to the eye.
Will have to see how this turns out and then decide whether or not its worth the effort for me. Personally I too prefer a game oriented towards less record keeping and book skimming, but hey, call me old-fashioned...
This sounds cool and all, but are we going to end up getting something like the Party sheets in WFRP? It almost feels like the game may be taking a big step away from the grounds that've already been laid down in DH. On the other hand, the squad stuff might also end up being like the sheet you've probably got set up for your ship in RT. I really hope that the "modes" are maybe just kind of misnomers, or maybe the(as it seems to me by reading the diary) "mode of thinking" they had going through the creative process.
Anyway, thanks again for a big update, and this sure sounds like it can be a fun mechanic to play with. Just please don't make it too difficult to blend the games in the 40KRP line. PLEASE!
First of all, thank you FFG for giving us specifics in the Designer Diary! Concrete excerpts and examples like this are exactly what I was looking for. Much obliged!
That said, I do agree with Terelo. One of the things I appreciated about DH and RT was that the Ranks weren't levels in the D&D sense, but more an abstract measure of how much experience you had accumulated over time. I do not like the idea that abilities are going to be scaled with your Rank. Because really, that turns DeathWatch into a level-based game, not something I'm interested in. Also, I find it over complicated, packing too many different things into one ability. But really, a lot of this is just taste. It's not objectively bad, it's just a taste I really dislike (but does appeal to folks like 'guessmyname')
The squad-based mechanics are certainly interesting. I can definitely see the perks, but I'm wondering how much book-keeping it's going to require in play. My tastes definitely run towards less record keeping and resource tracking, not more. But here's to hoping those concerns are unfounded. One thing I'm really wondering, is will the Sergeant of the squad have more authority/ability to activate these various squad abilities, or will their usage and activation be decided by meta-game player democracy? Guess will see.
But again, thanks for the specifics FFG!
The best thing I like about these rules is that it gives players an incentive to step outside the chapter role. People have put forward the question how these chapters are actually going to work together. This is clearly the reason why. Together we are stronger.
don't know if I like the idea, will have to how it plays out in a real game when i get the book, and if I don't like it after that i know what I can do :) change it and carry on having fun:)
really need to know more, Q: can you use stuff from solo mode when in squad mode? I need to have a good re-read after some sleep :) and see how i feel after that .


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OK. This straightener did nothing for my hair. Granted, I have thick, coarse hair with lots of body and volume, but, still, I was expecting more. My last straightener was the 2" gold tone Hot Tools and I was expecting this to work at least as well as that did. (After all, it's ceramic, it's newer and it cost $40 - not that much less that my Hot Tools did ten years ago.) With the Hot Tools, I couldn't straighten my hair unless I'd first blown it straight (my hair doesn't get stick straight even when you blow dry it straight) - a process that took an hour when my hair was long. This straightener did not even work when I blow dried my hair first! I wrangled with my hair (which is now chin length) for AN HOUR, running this through multiple times, doing only tiny sections of my hair and... no joy. Maybe if this was $20 and I had thin, more easily straightened hair this might work but at $40+ it's totally not worth it.
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I will admit that this is my first straightener, but even I know it sucks. I knew I was buying one of the cheaper ones, but I still expected it to work reasonably. The plates don't even touch over most of their length, which makes it hard to work with thin sections of hair. It also snags really really badly. Straightening was ok I guess. I only had it on heat setting 10 (it goes 1 to 30), and it wouldn't straighten the ends, they remained slightly curled under from when I blowdried it with a round brush. A hotter setting may help, but I won't bother finding out. I will be returning this for a refund. Oh, and mine comes with a "bonus bag," which sounds great, until I tell you it's not a travel bag for the straightener, but just a plain cosmetics bag. Thanks for nothing, Conair.
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subset: commoncrawl


text: Client are clearly trying to channel the muses of ''Violator''-era Depeche Mode. On their sultry debut, the female U.K. duo manipulate synths and beats, rehashing '80s electro as sleaze pop. Their haunting voices coast over tawdry lyrics on love (''Rock and Roll Machine'') and prostitution(''Client''). And when they beg ''Give me more, more, more'' on addiction ode ''Pills,'' we know just how they feel.


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A man accused of murdering an 84-year-old Mishawaka woman during a home invasion in December has been apprehended — 5,000 miles from the scene of the crime. William Karimu, 19, a native of Sierra Leone, Africa, was arrested by Sierra Leone authorities Tuesday on suspicion of murdering Lois Hickey. Hickey was stabbed numerous times in her home in the 300 block of East Donaldson Street. Her body was found on Dec. 29 after concerned neighbors called police after reporting not seeing her for a number of days.
Karimu, who was reportedly living in Mishawaka at the time, was charged March 2 with murder, burglary, a Class B felony, and felony murder. However, the charges were sealed after investigators believed it was possible Karimu could have fled to Africa. He has family members who live in St. Joseph County. Authorities are currently working to extradite him back to the United States which could take an undetermined amount of time.
"It's a great sense of relief for a lot of elderly people in that neighborhood," Mishawaka Police Chief Ken Witkowski said during a news conference Tuesday to announce the arrest. "They were concerned. They can rest assured that guy is locked up."
St. Joseph County Prosecutor Michael Dvorak said Karimu lived just two houses away from Hickey during the time of the murder.
Crime Stoppers tips led investigators to interview and take DNA samples from a number of people, including Karimu.
Karimu agreed to speak with police and denied any involved in her death, according to the charging documents. He reportedly submitted to a buccal swab in an attempt to compare his DNA to the DNA from blood found in the living room and window pane of Hickey's home.
Authorities said the DNA profile of the blood from the home matched the DNA profile of Karimu "to a reasonable degree of scientific certainty."
The window at Hickey's home was broken by a rock, and officers determined the assailant entered through that window and cut himself while doing so. A forensic scientist examined the blood samples and developed a DNA profile that they determined came from an unknown male.
A motive to the murder is unclear. However, a gold Saturn belonging to Hickey was stolen from her garage and later found on 24th Street near Courtyard Apartments in South Bend. Witnesses said the Saturn had been parked there since the early morning hours of Dec. 27.
Authorities would not say when they interviewed Karimu and when he may have fled for Africa.
Dvorak said no extradition has ever occurred between the United States and Sierra Leone, and the countries do not have a treaty with one another. However, the U.S. Department of Justice is working through Great Britain, which does have a treaty with the west African nation.
Dvorak added he's confident the extradition will happen.
The U.S. Attorney's Office for the Northern District of Indiana, the U.S. Department of State and the U.S. Marshal's Service assisted with filing extradition papers in the case.
Dvorak credited the help from outside agencies as well as his investigators.
Staff writer Tom Moor:
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The moodily ambitious Manchester band Elbow have announced plans to release their sixth album The Take Off And Landing Of Everything early this year; it follows 2011′s Build A Rocket Boys! Frontman Guy Garvey has named an intriguing set of key influences: space-rock, prog, Primal Scream, Spiritualized. I don't know about the other three, but there's definitely some prog to be heard in first single "Fly Boy Blue / Lunette," a sprawling and heavily orchestrated strummer that moves assuredly through different movements and keeps the same wounded air throughout. The song's video is entirely made up of footage of the band recording in the studio, and it's below.
The Take Off And Landing Of Everything is out 3/11 on Fiction/Concord.
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I have something in common with Lauren Hutton and writer Peggy Orenstein. I accept the gap between my two front teeth. After three sets of braces when I was younger and years without a retainer, I can still look a dentist and my reflection in the eye and say, "I like my smile the way it is." It's a trademark passed down to me by my mother.
But while I'm able to embrace my gap, a couple of scars, and other "flaws," I'm still unable to come to terms with the cruel joke DNA has played on me. You see, I've always wanted boobs and figured I had a pretty good chance of getting them because ample bosoms run on both sides of my family. Keep reading »


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Erik Gruenwedel, senior editor Before joining Home Media Magazine in 2003, Gruenwedel was a reporter at Billboard, focusing on the legal issues. During his 15-year print career, Gruenwedel has written for the bicycling, homecare. advertising (Adweek), and spa and poolindustries. He has a degree in journalism from Cal-State Northridge, as well as an MBA from Pepperdine University.
Good-Bye Mrs. Kotter
Marcia Strassman
Back in the mid-1980s I managed a bike shop — Ernie's Pro Bikes — on trendy San Vicente Blvd., in the swanky Brentwood suburb of West Los Angeles.
Actress Marcia Strassman, who died Oct. 24 at age 66 following a seven-year battle with breast cancer, parlayed a brief but mundane role at the end of each episode as Gabe Kaplan's understanding wife on the hit '70s sitcom "Welcome Back, Kotter," to cult status.
Even at 5-10 with sparkling eyes and lean figure, Strassman didn't necessarily stand out. She didn't need to. Her air of normalcy in a town awash with manufactured vanity — a welcomed respite, especially at Ernie's where she would pop in on occasion for no apparent reason. An unhappy marriage ventured during one visit.
Strassman had just caught lightning in a bottle for a second time with the Honey, I Shrunk the Kids movie franchise — again playing the wife character to lead actor Rick Moranis.
While she really wasn't interested in cycling, the colorful bikes, Lycra clothing and related accessories intrigued her. She would pull up on a shop stool and ask oddball questions like why male cyclists shaved their legs? Or how do the gears on a bike work?
When I told her I could show her a few shaving tricks, she blushed and smiled. She once vented her frustration out loud on the pay inequalities with the 1992 sequel, Honey, I Blew Up the Kid. She also joked having "made it" in Hollywood by virtue of a "hunky" personal driver assigned during filming.
If Los Angeles is indeed a constellation of plastic, Strassman seemed an odd fit. Like a lot of LA stories, Ernie's is no more — replaced by a trendy eatery du jour. But the memory of Ms. Strassman remains.
By: Erik Gruenwedel
Home Entertainment's 'Blu' Summer
At a time when subscription streaming and over-the-top video dominate the narrative in home entertainment, Blu-ray Disc remains an enduring format — despite media companies' misguided efforts to embrace SVOD's Trojan Horse.
Trans World Entertainment, which operates the 328-store f.y.e. retail chain nationwide, said double-digit sales increases of Blu-ray titles helped keep same-store sales declines to 1% in its most-recent fiscal quarter.
Hastings Entertainment, which operates 126 stores throughout the Southwest, saw revenue from new Blu-ray and DVD title sales increase 2% to 23% ($100 million) of total sales in 2013 from the same period in 2011, according to an April regulatory filing.
Industry wide, through the first half of the year, Blu-ray sales rose 10% in the second quarter alone, suggesting continued viability in a disc business many in the mainstream media have given up for dead. In fact, electronic sales of new releases — the format "du jour" — were less than 20% of total packaged-media sales in the quarter, according to DEG: The Digital Entertainment Group.
Alas, the DVD death spiral perception — perpetuated for years by the media — has now been embraced by media executives, many of whom openly gloat about the incremental revenue generated licensing content to SVOD stalwarts such as Netflix, Amazon Prime Instant Video and Hulu Plus.
Capitulation to streaming reached its zenith earlier this month when Time Warner CEO Jeff Bewkes — a perennial critic of SVOD — unabashedly lauded digital distribution.
"We're going to be up solid double-digits [this year]. And by that I don't mean 10% to 20%, I mean more," Bewkes said.
Warner Bros. said it could expect to see a significant increase in the $400 million it generated in 2013 from licensing content to subscription streaming services. Nevermind that incremental revenue is dwarfed by the more than $1.1 billion the studio generated through June 30 this year selling movies and TV shows on disc, and to a lesser extent, digital platforms.
In the United Kingdom, a durable packaged-media market slowly but surely undermined by SVOD, Netflix now has more than 3 million subs. I have friends in Germany — a country with a strong economy that continues to support disc sales — who routinely ask about the latest American TV shows to buy on disc. Recent recommendation "Breaking Bad" was big hit. Now, its "Homeland." I didn't have the heart to tell them Netflix will open for business there next month.
To be sure, SVOD is a win for consumers, but it's a loss to content holders and the home entertainment industry. Who makes a profit selling unlimited access for $9 a month? Just Netflix. Which is why its stock is in the stratosphere — valued nine times more than Microsoft; five times more than Walmart and Time Warner.
Lost among Wall Street's brazen Netflix lovefest is the reality the service ended its most-recent fiscal period with $7.7 billion (!) in content liabilities, which some industry observers actually believe the SVOD service may outrun if it keeps adding subscribers.
Ever wonder why Netflix CEO Reed Hastings has that sheepish smile in photos? He's laughing all the way to the bank.
By: Erik Gruenwedel
Netflix Facts
Netflix is one of the most recognized brands in America, if not the world. The company, which began operations April 14, 1998, released its annual report Feb. 3, which gives a snapshot of the top producing publicly traded company in 2013, according to Standard & Poor's.
Its stock price Feb. 3 opened at $411 a share with a market valuation around $24 billion. Notably, there were just 215 stockholders of record of Netflix common stock (as of Jan. 30, 2014), although that doesn't include all shareholders working through investment groups.
And still the subscription streaming pioneer prefers to rent — not own — its 250,000 square-foot corporate headquarters in Los Gatos, Calif. Interestingly, Netflix is doubling the headquarters to 510,000 square feet, with construction slated to finish by 2015.
Netflix rents all of its business facilities, including the 57,000 square-foot packaged-media corporate headquarters in Fremont, Calif., and 79,000 square-foot office in Beverly Hills, Calif. (where chief content officer Ted Sarandos works).
It also operates a 23,000 square-foot global streaming customer service center in Santa Clara, 90,000 square-foot domestic disc processing, shipping and storage center in Columbus, Ohio; and 49,000 square-foot domestic streaming and disc customer service center in Hillsboro, Ore.
Netflix employs 2,020 full-time employees, and another 400+ part-time. It uses Amazon Web Services for its cloud-based computing, and prefers a proprietary Open Connect CDN, while still using third-party services such as Akamai and Level 3.
The company added 6.2 million domestic streaming subscribers in 2013, to end the year with 33.4 million, which was up 15% from 2012. Domestic streaming generated a contribution profit of $622 million, up 69% from 2012, on revenue of $2.7 billion. The revenue increase was largely due to a 26% increase in the average number of paid memberships.
Netflix added 4.8 million international subscribers, up 13% from 2012, to end the year with 9.7 million. It generated a contribution loss of $274 million, which was down from a contribution loss of $389 million in 2012.
The rental company lost almost 1.3 million disc subscribers in 2013, which was a 57% improvement from the 3 million disc subs lost in 2012. The segment generated a contribution profit of $439 million, which was down 18% from 2012, on revenue of $910 million (down 20% from 2012).
The $132.1 million decrease in domestic DVD cost of revenue was primarily due to a $63.2 million decrease in content acquisition expense and a $47.7 million decrease in content delivery expenses resulting from a 21% decrease in the number of DVDs mailed to paying members. All of which helped packaged media up contribution margin 1% to 48%.
Notably, Netflix generated $5.8 million selling previously viewed discs to third parties.
By: Erik Gruenwedel
Digital Hype Off to Strong Start in 2014
Hollywood Reporter: "A steep increase on the digital side saved the day."
L.A. Times: "Digital video sales' rise breathes new life into home entertainment."
Chicago Tribune: "Boosted by Digital, Hollywood Home Entertainment Sales Grow 5%"
Home Media Magazine: "Studio Presidents Tout Digital at CES"
The headlines are bold and unwavering. Digital dissemination of movies and TV shows is saving the home entertainment industry. According to DEG, consumers spent nearly $1.2 billion buying movies and TV shows digitally in 2013, up from $808 million in 2012.
$1.2 billion is a lot of money — $100 million monthly studios collectively generate selling content with expansive margins compared to disc. The industry generated another $2.1 billion renting digital content. Together, digital generated $3.3 billion — less than half that of increasingly disregarded packaged media.
Indeed, disc purchases reached $7.8 billion — which while down 8% from $8.5 billion in 2012 — trumped digital revenue by 136%. In fact, packaged-media sellthrough in the U.S. topped China's red-hot (and another Hollywood favorite) theatrical market by 116%, despite the fact the communist country boasts more than 18,000 movie screens and the world's biggest population at 1.36 billion.
Blu-ray Disc saw revenue increase 5% — the same percentage uptick as the industry overall, but virtually ignored by studio executives. Too bad, considering the high-definition precursor to 4K enjoyed its best holiday sales ever. According to data compiled by Home Media Research, Blu-ray sales in December 2013 amounted to approximately $416 million, up from the $404 million in December 2012.
$416 million is a lot of money, too. In fact, it's 51% more than what Digital HD and transactional VOD collectively generated in December if you average digital revenue over 12 months. And it's 316% more than what consumers spent on average buying digital content. In other words, for every $1 spent buying digital content, consumers spent $4.16 buying Blu-ray.
Yet, studios executives — in an effort to appear prescient — are all on the digital bandwagon. It's what Wall Street wants to hear (i.e. growth sector). It's streaming coolness. It's a strategy Netflix's brass has employed for years, despite the fact by-mail rental discs still generate half of the SVOD pioneer's profit margin.
It's also a strategy that is shortsighted, as underscored in a new Harris Poll.
By: Erik Gruenwedel
Heralding a Pyrrhic Savior
The home entertainment industry appears to be borrowing a page from Netflix's playbook regarding digital revenue — lauding electronic sellthrough (EST), transactional VOD, and even subscription streaming, as market saviors.
But if you analyze the third-quarter data from DEG: The Digital Entertainment Group, EST and transactional VOD rental collectively (again) lagged packaged media's $1.45 billion in revenue by a whopping 50%!
Transactional VOD and EST totaled $742 million, with widely heralded digital sellthrough generating a rather modest $274 million in standalone revenue. While EST is up 46% year-over-year and boasts significant margins (compared with disc), does the industry really want to crow about a sector that generated just $29 million more in revenue than the surviving ghosts of Blockbuster did renting discs over the counter? Packaged media sales, which are indeed declining, still generated 80% more in revenue than EST.
To put it another way, $29 million is approximately the amount Netflix CEO Reed Hastings, CCO Ted Sarandos and CFO David Wells collectively earned selling stock options in September. And why? Because SVOD's $815 million "contribution" to the $1.55 billion in Q3 digital consumer spending is misleading.
SVOD revenue largely went to Netflix, Hulu Plus and Amazon Prime Instant Video — not studios and content holders. Content holders receive license fees from SVOD operators over a multi-year period. In fact, Netflix said a record 5 billion hours of content was streamed by its subscribers during the quarter. That's a lot of content being consumed for just $7.99 a month. Had those hours been from transactional VOD or EST, the fiscal impact (and relevance) would be exponentially higher.
Indeed, when subtracting SVOD revenue from both the 2012 and 2013 Q3 tallies, this year's total home entertainment consumer spending actually declined.
Netflix, which continues to turn a cold shoulder and pull back marketing dollars from its high-margin disc rental business, said it does so in order not to confuse an increasingly digital consumer.
Home entertainment would be wise not to emulate; and instead up marketing of packaged media with a few changes.
That's because transactional VOD, which has been heralded by studios for 10 years as the preferred rental option, grew less than 3% year-over-year, suggesting that the hype surrounding SVOD (and kiosk rental) is undermining the $4.99/$5.99 VOD transaction — and packaged media.
The consumer has been in the throes of an economic recession for more than five years. Low cost (and low margin) entertainment sources such as SVOD and kiosks have gained traction (it's hard to argue against $7.99 monthly and $1.20 nightly rentals) and improved their content offerings. Home entertainment has become a commodity.
Studios, as a result, do need to heed recent comments from Netflix's Sarandos criticizing inane release windows that allow theater operators to control distribution of new movies for up to four months after launch. Studios should call theaters' bluff and release $40 bundled Blu-ray Disc/DVD/digital titles (and $20 DVDs) simultaneously with the theatrical launch. Nearly every home has a DVD or Blu-ray player. Then release to digital channels and kiosks four months later. And let the market decide.
If the theaters refuse to screen movies being released simultaneously at retail (which they will), that's their right. So is it the right of studios to move their theatrical releases and marketing budgets to home entertainment.
Sarandos says the consumer should have ubiquitous access to content on their terms (without pirating, of course). It's time studios stop protecting low margin theaters and throw a lifeline to higher margin home entertainment, beginning with packaged media.
By: Erik Gruenwedel
Who Loves Ya, Disc? Not Netflix
Netflix's indifference towards its pioneering by-mail disc rental business turned another page Oct. 21 when it relegated mention of packaged media to just two sentences (67 words) in the third-quarter investor newsletter.
In the brief paragraph, CEO Reed Hastings and CFO David Wells spent half of it cautioning that the pending first class rate hike by the U.S. Postal Service would add upwards of $4 million in quarterly expenses, beginning in 2014.
Netflix has more than 7 million subscribers who rent discs (and also stream content), contributing an impressive $107 million in operating income on revenue of about $227 million to Netflix's bottom line. Nonetheless, the segment was eliminated for the first time from the service's summary fiscal results outlining domestic and international streaming. Disc rental was included in the overall totals with no breakdown of revenue or operating income.
Notably, disc rental's operating margin of more than 47% doubles domestic streaming's 23.7%.
Meanwhile, Netflix's international segment, which continues to be heralded by management (as well as Hollywood) as the growth opportunity of today and tomorrow, again lost $74 million.
When questioned in the video webcast, Hastings reiterated his typical detached support for by-mail rental, which he said was operating largely as a stand alone business requiring little marketing.
"[The disc rental segment] is doing great work," Hastings said, adding Netflix was "very excited" about the unit's breadth of content selection, including availability of Showtime and HBO shows — content, it should be pointed out, is not available anytime soon on streaming.
Then, reality reared its ugly head. In reference to a question about British competitor LoveFilm Instant, the CEO revealed his true POV toward disc. Specifically, Hastings said Netflix clearly had the upper hand on LoveFilm Instant (and Redbox Instant) precisely due to its streaming-centric business model. Public perception of Redbox Instant and LoveFilm Instant, on the other hand, is confusing and bad for business, according to Hastings.
The culprit: discs. He said Netflix purposely does not market its disc rental business so as to minimize confusion among an increasingly streaming-educated consumer.
"The [streaming/disc] brand, fundamentally, is not correct because they can't deliver on that promise, as exciting as it sounds to consumers. So that's a big tension," Hastings said.
In other words, Netflix's lucrative disc and hybrid streaming cash cow — which is twice as profitable as domestic streaming — is actually a flaw in the digital world, according to the CEO. That it continues to drive earnings apparently is just an aberration.
By: Erik Gruenwedel
A Question Too Far?
CNBC media reporter Julia Boorstin
Netflix named JP Morgan analyst Doug Anmuth to join BTIG Research analyst Richard Greenfield as co-moderators for streaming pioneer's Oct. 21 third-quarter video fiscal call.
Anmuth replaces CNBC media and entertainment reporter Julia Boorstin, who along with Greenfield, hosted Netflix's first-ever video call in July.
Netflix spokesperson Joris Evers said the switch was part of the company's strategy to "keep trying new things." He didn't elaborate or indicate why Greenfield is returning and Boorstin isn't.
From the outset, the streaming video format was typical for a pioneer like Netflix. Analysts and investors submitted questions in advance to Boorstin and Greenfield, who then organized them into theme questions presented to CEO Reed Hastings, CFO David Wells and CCO Ted Sarandos — the latter making his first appearance on a quarterly call.
The format, which represented a break in protocol from the traditional corporate webcast whereby analysts phone in or email questions to the CEO and CFO, generated its share of controversy. Notably, Wedbush Securities analyst Michael Pachter said the moderators would have an unfair advantage controlling the questions that some might consider deferential to Netflix.
Greenfield, in an email prior to the first video call, was adamant he would remain independent prior, during and after the event. And by all accounts he succeeded asking straight forward questions, including the impact "Arrested Development" had on new subscribers, clarification on "basis points," margins, and related financial queries.
Boorstin, who clearly relished her role and was most at ease in front of the video cam, approached the Q&A as she would an interview with a newsmaker on CNBC — trying to find that one question that would result in a notable sound bite.
Indeed, Boorstin's began the event questioning Hastings about the alleged controversy surrounding the third-party hosted video format — a query that appeared to irritate the CEO.
"I think we should process that after the interview and let's see if it's productive and useful for investors and see what they think," Hastings responded.
Then she asked Sarandos how many people watch Netflix originals.
Viewer data, along with price hikes and churn, are subjects Netflix executives like to avoid. Netflix, a while ago stopped reporting churn , opting instead to focus on net adds. Boorstin knew this but asked anyway.
The SVOD service, per policy, also refuses to disclose how many people watch original programming like "House of Cards," "Arrested Development," "Hemlock Grove," and "Orange is the New Black," among others.
The non-disclosure is a sore spot within the TV industry since broadcast networks live and die by Nielsen ratings. Netflix argues that since it doesn't have to appease advertising, viewer tallies are immaterial.
Price hikes is another matter. When Netflix in 2011 infamously increased by 60% the price of its popular hybrid streaming/disc rental plan, subscribers jettisoned in droves, the media pounced, and Hastings was left offering confusing explanations that sent the stock into a tailspin and had many questioning his leadership.
Undeterred, Boorstin again asked about a price hike and viewer data. And Hastings and Sarandos again denied the existence of any pending price hike or program ratings.
"We are going to keep on asking for numbers. Some day, Ted, you will give one to me," she quipped.
Pachter said Boorstin's departure is a negative.
"I thought that [she] gave an appearance of objectivity, which has been removed now," he said.
By: Erik Gruenwedel
Emmys Final Score: Cable 1 Netflix 0
In the end it wasn't even close. Netflix came to the 65th Annual Primetime Emmy Awards with high expectations following 14 Emmy nominations — the first ever for an Internet-based subscription service.
With majority of those nominations (nine) for political drama reboot "House of Cards," scuttlebutt suggested Netflix would score big in the high-profile categories, including Outstanding Drama, Lead Actor (Kevin Spacey) and Lead Actress (Robin Wright).
It didn't. The subscription video-on-demand pioneer, which has marketed itself in part as an agent of change within the traditional TV landscape, took home just one Emmy during the Sept. 22 primetime awards telecast: Oscar-winning helmer David Fincher for Outstanding Directing for a Drama Series.
Clearly, with the monies invested in billboard and related national marketing, in addition to grassroots political-style lawn signs in greater Los Angeles, Netflix had hoped for more than a directorial nod.
And some might say the Emmy directing award should not be confused with similar accolades presented at the Oscars and Golden Globes. Indeed, Fincher only directed two of the 17 "Cards" episodes, including the pilot. "Cards" won two other Emmys for castings and cinematography, which were awarded during the separate Primetime Creative Arts Emmy Awards on Sept. 15.
HBO, which Netflix management has oft mentioned as both erstwhile mentor and foe, again took home the bulk of Emmy hardware, including a combined 27 trophies for "Veep," "Boardwalk Empire," 'The Newsroom" and Liberace biopic Behind the Candelabra.
AMC Networks again scored big for perennial Emmy favorite "Breaking Bad," which nabbed Outstanding Drama and Outstanding Supporting Actress (Anna Gunn). Notably, series creator Vince Gilligan attributed the show's longevity in part to Netflix.
"I think Netflix kept us on the air," Gilligan told reporters back stage, alluding to streaming access to past seasons. He should have also mentioned packaged media since season boxed sets of "Bad" consistently rate high at retail. Amazon ranks seasons one through three among its top-selling DVDs.
Regardless, the Emmys once again underscored what cable has brought to TV in terms of quality serialized drama. And while Netflix invented binge viewing and isn't afraid to spend big on original content, it's still chasing the cable networks' creatively.
"It just seems like there's a real swing in the cable world," Bobby Cannavale, who edged favorite Aaron Paul ("Breaking Bad") to win Outstanding Best Supporting Actor Award for HBO's "Boardwalk Empire," told Reuters.
"[Movie] studios don't make dramas, so the best place to do drama is you go to HBO or Showtime, or you go to AMC or FX, and I think that was sort of reflected today."
By: Erik Gruenwedel
Margin's Ugly Call
Outerwall said margins at subsidiary Redbox would fall below expectations in the second half of the year as consumers rent movies for fewer days, among other issues.
By definition, margin is the difference between the cost and the selling price of something. For Redbox, the selling price would be the number of nights it can charge $1.20 for a particular disc at a kiosk. Outerwall's profit margin in the first half of 2013 shrunk to 6.2% from 8.2% in the same period of 2012. And it's expected to fall further.
Culprits include Redbox promotions and a shorter rental period per disc, according to CEO Scott Di Valerio. He said the kiosk vendor would report increased revenue in the third quarter, including record rentals in July, but the profitability (margin) of those rentals is lower.
That's because while more people are renting movies from kiosks, they're returning them the next day, instead of days later. With the margin on a nightly $1.20 rental razor thin, Redbox makes its money through volume (renters) and extended rental nights. Previously, the average kiosk rental generated more than $2 in revenue. When a consumer returns a disc in less than 24 hours, that revenue (and margin) falls.
Pitfalls of Teaser Pricing
Redbox (and streaming services such as Netflix) has shifted the rental paradigm, transforming the $3.99 video store transaction into a low margin commodity. Kiosks and subscription video-on-demand services have reduced the cost of the rental transaction, replacing it with a big-volume business model predicated on the belief that if a movie/TV show rental is priced at next to nothing, people will flock, rentals or subscribers will balloon and profit will follow based on increased volume.
If you've ever had someone ask you at McDonald's, "Would you like a drink with that?," then you get the idea. Redbox is silently asking customers, "Would you like to keep that another night? It's only $1.20 more." And Netflix every month is cajoling, "It's only $8 a month. Isn't the entertainment we provide each month worth that?"
This mindset has been a boon to the consumer, but it's a delicate balancing act for Redbox and the home entertainment industry. Studios and media companies loudly herald the incremental revenue SVOD is generating via multimillion dollar license deals. Redbox, too, is paying select studios hundreds of millions to secure street date releases.
Yet, this business model is dependent upon SVOD and Redbox continually growing their subscriber bases and/or maximizing the time a disc is gone from the kiosk and in the home. Any deviation from these prerequisites, and the bubble bursts.
"Unfortunately, this demonstrates the leverage in the Redbox model, but on the negative side," said B. Riley & Co. analyst Eric Wold. "The more you can push customers to multiple nights, larger baskets, etc., the more you leverage that cost."
Analysts say Redbox needs to adjust its promotional strategies going forward to offset the single night shift and negative margin hit. Consensus suggests Redbox is not operating on the margin fringe as much as it is operating a business model that requires a certain level of risk predicting disc demand ahead of time, which doesn't always pan out correctly.
"They make outsized profits when revenue is higher than budgeted and lower profit when revenue falls short. It's a tough model to predict, but I think they need to manage a bit more conservatively," said Wedbush Securities' Michael Pachter.
As for Netflix, as long as they can grow their subscriber base and leverage their ballooning stock price, the party will continue. However, someday the music may stop,
By: Erik Gruenwedel
Wall Street (Again) Fumbles Movie Rental Story
The day (Sept. 10) Netflix shares set an all-time valuation record (above $311) based on news Virgin Media would enable its subscribers to separately access the streaming pioneer, a pair of Wall Street analysts declared death on Redbox's disc rental business model.
Both extremes underscore the effects of Wall Street's war on packaged media, including movie sellthrough and rental, and its desire to declare digital distribution winner — however prematurely.
Virgin Media said it would rollout Netflix to its 1.7 million multichannel video distribution subscribers in the United Kingdom — access they have to pay for separately. While it was noteworthy that for the first tme a MVPD agreed to expose its subscribers to Netflix (over-the-top streaming services are seen as direct competition), the reality is that most of those subs can already access Netflix.
It would appear that Virgin Media knows that, and is more interested in being an ISP — selling subs the broadband connectivity required to stream TV shows and catalog (not new release) movies. But that didn't stop investors from driving Netflix's stock further into the stratosphere — ignoring billions due in content license agreements and profit at break even.
Then Pacific Crest Securities analysts Andy Hargreaves and Corey Barrett issued a note saying Redbox's parent, Outerwall (formerly Coinstar), faced a looming financial squeeze due to its kiosk movie rental subsidiary.
Specifically, Hargreaves and Barrett contend fewer people are renting DVD and Blu-ray Disc movies, which they say will drop Redbox revenue up to 30% annually over the next few years. They buttress their POV with data from The NPD Group that showed disc rental revenue fell 37% over a five-year period through 2012.
The analysts say Redbox rental volume would need to increase about 5% annually to support Outerwall's current stock price — a premise the Pacific Crest duo deem unlikely.
What Hargreaves and Barrett ignore is the fact the NPD data referred to total disc rentals, which also included by-mail and video stores. It's no secret what Netflix thinks about its by-mail disc rental business — despite the fact the segment generated nearly 50% of the service's operating profit in the most recent fiscal period.
Meanwhile, Redbox revenue increased 4.5% to $479 million in its most recent fiscal quarter. Its share of the disc-rental market passed 50% for the first time.
B. Riley & Co. analyst Eric Wold, who is bullish on Redbox, said the Pacific Crest note makes the false assumption that declining disc rentals are primarily due to consumer migration to digital channels such as transactional VOD and streaming.
"While I agree that overall revenue generated by the DVD/Blu-ray market will decline in the coming years, that is not due to a technology switch from discs, but rather a switch from older rental channels [Blockbuster, video stores, etc.] to the comparatively smaller Redbox channel," Wold said.
Indeed, Wall Street scuttlebutt that transactional VOD will supplant disc rentals is nonsensical. If the $3.99 to $4.99 nightly rental fee for a new release movie at Blockbuster or video store is considered a premium, why would someone pay just as much (or more) to access a movie at home through their cable channel when it can be rented at Redbox for $1.20 ($1.50 for Blu-ray)?
As disc rental revenue declines due to shrinking physical access (beyond kiosks), the number of rental transactions should remain unchanged. That's because Redbox doesn't care what people used to pay for disc rentals, it only cares that people rent a movie from a kiosk.
"For the population base that could not afford renting discs for $5, offering VOD for $5 and also requiring broadband access (vs. a $20 DVD player) doesn't make their lives any better," Wold said.
By: Erik Gruenwedel


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Actor Bruce Boxleitner has been in everything from TRON to Babylon 5 (John Sheridan). Film Channel Editor William Bibbiani recently interviewed Boxleitner for Crave Online, and asked him how he would feel about a possible remake of Babylon 5. Boxleitner answered:
I in fact saw Joe Straczynski not too long ago and we talked about that.
You know what I would say? It would be as far-fetched to me now as when they said "We're going to do TR0N again." I said, "Why?!" [Laughs] "Why?" But you know what? I was the most surprised. I got the call from Sean Bailey and Joe Kosinski, the director and the executive producer, would I do this? I said absolutely.
So if Babylon 5 comes along again, you never know. I'd be a fool to say no, but I'm just going to say look… It'll be a total surprise to me. Maybe I'll relive my whole career over in sort of a Groundhog Day thing. [Laughs] But you know what? That's okay. That's okay.
Full article: http://www.craveonline.com/film/interviews/174724-bruce-boxleitner-on-51-and-tron-3


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That's a misnomer. We don't need to project Billy Hamilton overall, that's why there are projections systems. He won't have much power, and he has elite speed, we can use his minor league walk and strikeouts and presto, bingo bango: projection.
Here's the thing. Billy Hamilton has speed like you've never seen before. He set the record for minor league stolen bases. The real Billy Hamilton facts are so ridiculous you don't even need to make up fake ones. The guy he beat out for the record, Vince Coleman, once rode the no-power, inconsistent-walks, too-many-strikeouts train to some seasons that any fantasy player today would love to own — even his first season, when he hit .267 and stole 110 bases (and he had better).
So perhaps, when Steamer projects Billy Hamilton to hit .245, perhaps it can't account fully for Hamilton's elite-elite speed. You don't build a projection system to be right for the two dots way out out on the extremes, you build it for the heart of the bell curve.
Which brings us to this week's roto-relevant research. Stephen Loftus at Beyond the Boxscore looked at players so fast they could 'steal first.' Using league-average infield hit and bunt hit rates, Loftus found the top 25 player-seasons by 'added hits' based on speed. The top five seasons belong to Willy Taveras, Ichiro Suzuki, Hunter Pence and Luis Castillo. Billy Hamilton is faster than at least half of them.
All of the top five seasons averaged .049 of extra batting average because of those hits.
Without knowing how Steamer projects batting average, we can't just add that .049 back in and make Hamilton a .294 hitter in his first season, but it does go some distance to perhaps explaining the range in projected batting averages. ZiPs has Hamilton at .267, OLIVER at .261, and Bill James at .288.
You'll notice that the projection systems hook Hamilton up with an average strikeout rate (20.3%-24.2%) and little power (.084-.096 ISO), so most of the batting average difference comes from the different projections for batting average on balls in play. His projected BABIPs range from .305 (Steamer) to .372 (Bill James). Four people in baseball beat that last number last year, just as a frame of reference.
Of course, Loftus' stealing first findings are important to BABIP projections. But we can try to use an old xBABIP formula, combined with his findings, to project Hamilton's BABIP.
xBABIP =0.391597252 + (LD% x 0.287709436 ) + ((GB% – (GB% * IFH%) ) x -0.151969035 ) + ((FB% – (FB% x HR/FB%) – (FB% x IFFB%)) x -0.187532776) + ((IFFB% * FB%) x -0.834512464) + ((IFH% * GB%) x 0.4997192 )
This formula has been updated since, but this one works for us because it uses percentages. We have Hamilton's line drive, ground-ball, fly ball and infield fly ball percentages from his minor league career. If we substitute an elite infield hit rate into this thing, stolen from Loftus' seasons, we might be able to see what it spits out for us.
Hamilton's career minor league ground ball rate is 43.4%. Most years, that was below average for his league, and that's below average for the major leagues,too. His fly ball rate was 34.4% (MLB ave: 34%). His infield fly ball rate was above average at every position, so we'll call it 11% in the majors. Looking at Ichiro Suzuki for guidance (career IFH% – 12.5%), we'll give Hamilton a 12% infield fly rate, which is almost twice the league rate (6.5% last year). Line drive rate is tough. His minor league line drive rate was 15.6%, but stringers in the minor leagues must be sticklers — the league averages were as low as 14.3% in some of his leagues (it was 20.9% in the majors last year). In his bigger samples, Hamilton was barely above average. Let's give him a 20% line drive rate. The average HR/FB% for players with a .80-.99 ISO last year was 4.5%.
Add it all up, and you get… .331. The Fans have Hamilton for a .339 BABIP and a .261 batting average.
It's not easy projecting elite players, but maybe the crowd got it right.


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Ask D'Mine: What to Do When You've Got No Insurance, No Money
Got diabetes and need some help? You've come to the right place.
Every week, we take reader questions and do our very best to be informative and helpful (and make you smile a little) here at our diabetes advice column, Ask D'Mine, hosted by veteran type 1, diabetes author and community educator Wil Dubois.
Send us your queries related to life with diabetes — nothing is off-limits here! (except of course specific medical instructions for…


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Scott studied music at Pacific Lutheran University (c/o 2007) and has spent the last six years performing, teaching, and composing in a variety of settings. He's a real pro with young students (ages 4 and up) but is equally comfortable teaching adults. Over the years Scott has been involved with some of the best ensembles in the state, and has recently performed with Celebrity Cruises and Ascension Theatre Productions.
His piano credits include accompanying for Solo and Ensemble Contest, Tacoma Musical Playhouse, the Tacoma Dome MLK Celebration, area churches, community music, and numerous others. A passion for music and easy personality with people make him a fun and effective teacher. Currently he directs and performs with the internationally touring men's quartet "545 Express" but can always make time for his first love; teaching.
Recent Teaching Credits:
Vocal Coach for University of Puget Sound
Piano Instructor at Open Arts Studio
Interim Choral Director at Goodman Middle School
Musical Director of 545 Express A Cappella
Music Director at Findlay Street Christian Church
Students will learn proper technique as well as music theory, and depending on personal goals, stage presence and audition preparation skills.
Students of all ages and musical interest are welcome.
Please feel free to email with questions.
References gladly provided.


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Blue Flower Filter Tea Cup
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This unique tea cup has a backdrop made to look like cracked granite, with whimsical blue flowers in the foreground. It offers a beautiful glimpse into an artistic and stylized nature with a classically Asian appeal. The cup comes with its own filter. You simply put your tea leaves into the filter, and then pour hot water into the cup to get a perfect single serving of tea. |


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It looks like he got it from the TTC. That was an amazing set though. Thanks for sharing!
I saw a YouTube video recently that is amazing-- check it out if you have a minute. Anyway, this person's Monorail spiel includes the resort spiel as it passes through them. Does anyone else's Monorail do that? I have the Monorail and Contemporary, but the spiel doesn't change when it passes through...how did this person get his to do the different spiels?
Thanks guys!
YouTube - Disney Toy Monorail Christmas Tree Village
It looks like he got it from the TTC. That was an amazing set though. Thanks for sharing!
"It's the time of your life, so live it well" ~ a bug's life
I have a Disney book coming out in the first week of March. Stop by www.fromscreentotheme.com for more details!
Wow, that was fantsmic. Thansk for sharing.
What a great layout. I wish a picture of the whole scene would have been included. Thanks for sharing that.
mini-V What will you celebrate?
Adult daycare for the kid inside you.


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Rolls-Royce Silver Wraith Limousine. Coach work by H.J Mulliner. Can be found on the Rolls-Royce Registry. Great Traceable History of Owners, From Columbia Gas and Electric Co... More
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We've seen the next-generation consoles do incredible things. Some of them even involve games. Here we take a look at what we've experienced so far of the Sony PS4 and Microsoft Xbox One.
Before we begin, check out our PS4 review and Xbox One review for our verdict on Sony and Microsoft's next-gen gaming powerhouses.
Design and build
Smooth round curves are out, sharp lines and blocky shapes are in. Both the Xbox One And PS4 are flaunting a cleaner look with harder edges, with Microsoft opting for a two-tone black '80s VCR-like box design which has been met with a split reaction.
The PS4 on the other hand has gone for a striking angular slanted look, with a two-tone parallelogram design which is intersected with a glowing blue line. It's new, but with strong echoes of the past: the grille-like structure will be familiar to anyone fond of the PS2 and, to a lesser extent, the original PlayStation. You could take the PS badge off of it and still know it's a PlayStation.
It's all down to personal preference of course, but while the Xbox One will blend in beneath your telly a little better than the PS4, Sony's console is, simply put, the prettier of the two.
Microsoft's console also dwarfs Sony's angular offering, despite the fact that the Xbox One has an external power brick while the PS4's is built in.
Microsoft seems to be playing it safe, offering plenty of room for the Xbox One to breathe, hoping to avoid the over-heating issues that plagued the original Xbox 360.
Having said that, only time will tell how both consoles will hold up to daily use, but for the time being they both run cool and quiet – just the way we like it.
More after the break...
graphics and power
Both the Xbox One and PS4 will pack eight-core AMD x86 CPUs which, coupled with 8GB RAM, should deliver more than enough power to get gamers hot under the collar.
Where the two differ is in the type of RAM they're packing. While the Xbox One will come with the DDR3 variety, the PlayStation 4's is the more exotic GDDR5. Strip away the letters and numbers and that means that the PlayStation 4 will have more bandwidth to play around with – which could possibly give PS4 titles a slight visual edge over the Xbox One's offerings.
Indeed, Call of Duty: Ghosts will run natively at 1080p on the PS4 while the Xbox One will run it natively at 720p before upscaling it to full HD. While both versions will run at 60fps, it does show PS4 does pack more graphical grunt than its rival.
However, games on both consoles look positively luscious and are a marked improvement over the previous generation. And things can only get better as developers become more comfortable with the hardware on offer.
Both consoles will support 4K graphics (in terms of power at least) and although the number of 4K sets at launch will be minimal, it's important to future-proof the Xbox One and PS4 against the coming wave of 4K TVs.
Submitted by stabes on Mon, 2013-12-16 14:44.
I own the PS3 and did own a 360 before selling to upgrade, I use my consoles for more than gaming alone and that is why the one is for me, I know a couple of people who have the PS4, have played the 1 or 2 games they got with it and completed them, haven't switched it on since, for me that is £350 wasted as I could not afford £50 for a new game every 2 weeks, I prefer to use the media functionality of a console...just my choice, I am sure the 'Hardcore' gamers as they call themselves will disagree....whilst secretly playing their PS3.
Submitted by Azumith on Sun, 2013-11-24 00:57.
@LegionDestroyer, Sony was not the first to use cd-roms for games. NEC's TurboGrafx-CD addon for the TurboGrafx-16 was the first use of cd-roms as a storage medium for games.
The Turbografx CD addon was released in 1988 and the Playstation One was released in 1994.
And DRM in gaming was used waaaaay before Sony released the PSone.
Microsoft would never go back to the strict DRM protection they originally had on the XBone, they would take a massive profit loss, which they wouldn't want to do.
Not picking sides here but I'll probably buy an XBone over a PS4 for the Forza series, the only reason I have yet to abandon console gaming all together and beef up a PC for gaming.
Submitted by kemah123 on Tue, 2013-11-12 00:10.
Here is what i think gamer to gamer. Even though I am a microsoft person i am not going to be a hater to the ps4. The ps4 has improved greatly from the hardware to software. Such as the look of the software and the look of the console. But the 2 major differencess are that the ps4 is a console that will attract to a one on one gamer so just you and the the console. So if you are a hardcore gamer like us Amaricans then you will probably want the ps4. The Xbox one on the other hand is maid for one on one or family. Because it has the kinect 2.0 that senses hart rate and can tell who is holding the controle or who is in that room.
To make the ps4 a family console you would have to get the play station eye and the playstation move. That would be about a extra 120$ in us terms but in uk money idk you can convert that or what ever other country is on here. thank you for reading I hope this help you decide.
Submitted by donwest on Sun, 2013-10-06 06:32.
DRM is not the way to move forward into the future. No matter how much the government protected mercantilist corporations want to trick you into believing that digital downloading and DRM is the wave of the future, it is not.
They are gimmicks and PR double talk to make the sheep believe draconian measures to strip you of your consumer rights is the "future". If you break it all the way down, DRM is paid government violence. If you've been caught "pirating" (notice how they try to give poor impoverished people playing a 'digitally downloaded' game shared by an anonymous person on the internet a negative name to make the sheep believe these people are evil pirates) and refuse to pay civil fines and fees, then refuse to go back to court, at some point the government will use violence to get that money from you. Did you initiate the violence? No.
Government protectionist laws like copyright laws give the government the facade of legitimacy to the sheep, and if two people have the same idea at the same time, the only one that will get protection from the mafia government is whoever makes it to the government collection building known as the patent office first. Please get your head out of the sand. DRM is NOT the future. It's a step backwards, idiot.
Submitted by LegionDestroyer on Wed, 2013-06-19 22:36.
How are Sony sheep? First to have Bluray player, First to have games on a disc, first to use DRM so widespread, And first to look after the consumer. And even though Microsoft have REMOVED DRM rules, they'll come BACK, They have been slowly introducing them for years now..
Submitted by Satinmavan on Wed, 2013-06-19 20:36.
I considered the PS4, but then I remembered Sony have been just like sheep for the past 10 years. Look at where the console world is now, with the exception of Blu-Ray media MS have lead it to where it is today and Sony have followed suit.
I think this is what will happen again this generation. Yes MS have made a balls up of trying to get their new policies and ideas across, but if you look into it a bit more closely instead of reading the main stream BS, you'll see it's not actually that bad, but Sony have done a great job of telling the consumer what they want to hear and stealing any thunder away from MS, but I think in a couple of years time, Sony will do what they do best and follow MS like they have done since the first Xbox was launched, they will just do it in dribs and drabs and no one will bat an eye lid. MS are getting the flak now because they're doing it all at once, new generation, new rules, and you can bet your arse Sony will sneak things in in the coming years, they have just been very clever in going against MS and telling people what they want to hear for now. Nobody likes change, and the backlash against MS is proving that
Submitted by markster1971 on Wed, 2013-06-19 20:05.
Personally, I want a PS4. i feel let down by Microsoft: more expensive console, and no backwards compatibility. At least the PS4 can stream old games.
Microsoft just havent bothered with current Xbox fans. So its just ship. PS4 all the way.
Submitted by UK1012UK on Wed, 2013-06-19 15:46.
Frankly I'm PS4 all the way like most people. I have enough multi media devices already thanks (TV,cable box;PC;tablet,mobile phone and PS3 who all stream as will the PS4). To buy a less powerfull machine just so I can change TV with my waving hand's seems a bit silly.
Submitted by nightwatch on Wed, 2013-06-19 15:43.
I think to some degree the main difference between xbox one and PS4 is MS is pandering to the coporate and sony to the consumer/gamer.
The main problem with MS apporach is that people feel they are not getting anything in return for all the restrictions. Most of the big AAA titles will appear on both paltforms and probably at least PS3 and maybe 360.
MS wants the front room, it has done since the 90's. I don't think they care much about gamers - just the money streams - it doesn't matter to them. At least sony seem to want to support gamers and small devs. The more interesting games seem to be on PS4. You'll get all the streaming services on PS4 but they wont shout about it. The switching of game to TV on Xbox one serves little more than a tv remote. MS vision of the home entertainment hub is like that of Sky. Total dominance and control of the consumer. Even more so than the walled garden of apple with the app store. This is a dark future of corporate control and one of assuming all people are guilty of piracy so they have to be controlled and restrained and milked for as much money as possible. Most of the media stuff you can do with smart tvs anyway.
Its sumed up with MS comment on if you haven't got an internet connection or reliable one - get yourself a 360 - you're not good enough for a One. They might as well have said get yourself a PS4 - thats an offline device or a Wii U.
Technically PS4 looks to have the edge. The kinect will be cool but not in the hands of MS or xbox one - I suspect there will be few titles that use it well. In the end it'll depend on what media and games are avalable and how much it costs to access them. For gaming though I'm going for PS4. Wait a year or so after release and go from there.
Submitted by sl8ed on Wed, 2013-06-19 14:46.
Nice to actually see some people finally commenting on this website. Still a joke compared to a certain other magazine's website, but ho hum.
The truth is that if Sony or MS brought out a console today that only played games (think PS1 or 2) then it would not make them enough money to make it worth their while..... well that's what they think anyway. Personally I would prefer it if it was just a games console, I don't need any of the other stuff I use my PC for already, even the blu ray player is useless to me these days.
The point here is "multiple pay streams". i.e. build in as many different ways of fleecing your customers as possible. From the launch documents/videos, how many pay streams can you count? Thats where the iphone/android phones are cleaning up.
80 million PS3's sold vs. 1.5 billion iPhone users worldwide
One thing to remember. The PS3 was expected to wipe the floor with the 360, based on specs alone. Never happened did it. For me there are always going to be games that will make it worth having either console. Its down to the games for me and nothing else. These are both going to be great consoles. Enjoy!


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Each June in Duluth, Minn., there is a shift from the college-town atmosphere that is present during nine months out of the year to the tourist town it becomes during the summer. One single event brings near pandemonium to the streets of Duluth each summer, and that is Grandma's Marathon.
An event coming into its 34 year, Grandma's Marathon represents a "World Class Event with Small Town Charm." For the last three decades, Grandma's Marathon has been one of the largest events held within the city of Duluth, offering much more than just a 26.2-mile marathon course.
Grandma's Marathon is held during the third week of June each summer, turning the Canal Park area of Duluth into the largest party the city sees all year. Grandma's Marathon alone attracts 9,500 runners of all different abilities, and they generally fill about 120 "Elite" slots, in which elite runners are required to submit previous race statistics to be qualified.
The course for the marathon starts in Two Harbors, Minn., and travels the Scenic Route 61 along Lake Superior to the finish line in Canal Park, near the famous Aerial Lift Bridge. Thousands of fans and spectators line the course to provide encouragement during the race each year. "Grandma's Marathon is more than a 26.2-mile race. It's a celebration of running, live entertainment, fabulous food and activities for the whole family," said Dick Beardsley, the current course record holder.
The marathon committee also schedules and holds the very popular Gary Bjorklund Half Marathon, the William A. Irvin 5K race, the Fitger's 5K race, and the Park Point 5-miler. All these events help support the main marathon, and add to the full weekend of festivities that take place.
Gary Bjorklund, a Duluth native and 1976 Olympian, was a major part of expanding long distance running in Minnesota. Bjorklund was the 1977 and 1980 champion of Grandma's Marathon, and in 1991 the marathon committee added a half marathon to celebrate his dedication to running and the event.
Since 1991, the Gary Bjorklund Half Marathon has become one of the most popular marathons of its kind in the United States, mainly because of its appeal as half the distance and run on the same course as the full Grandma's Marathon.
Because of its popularity, the marathon committee has been forced to limit the field to 4,500 runners, all of which are selected from a random lottery some six months before race day.
The Gary Bjorklund Half Marathon starts halfway up the marathon course to Two Harbors, and finishes at the same line in Canal Park, where all sponsored pre- and post-race activities take place.
One man who works behind the scenes each year is Bob Gustafson, the public relations director for Grandma's Marathon. Gustafson has the daunting task each year of garnering sponsor support, sending out press releases and race information to the media, as well as creating a buzz within town for the race. He also helps create the "Weekend Race Results" booklet after the race is over, to highlight all the runners and their times, as well as hundreds of photos from the weekend.
"In my position, I am fortunate to have the opportunity to work with some of the most passionate people you will ever meet," Gustafson said. "Our runners, sponsors and volunteers all dedicate so much to help make Grandma's Marathon the first-class event in has been for nearly 35 years."
When it comes to race weekend, Gustafson said the experience that can be summed up in just a short phrase, but holds so much weight.
"Marathon weekend is the most exciting time of the year," Gustafson said. "It's the time when a year's worth of work is showcased in a single, spectacular weekend. The efforts of many people are put into motion and it is so rewarding to see it all come together. Besides being Duluth's largest event, Grandma's Marathon weekend is also one of the largest running festivals of its kind in the country. Whether you are here as a runner or not, it is a truly a weekend not to miss."
In light of Grandma's Marathon weekend, another type of marathon has been started in Duluth. That race is known as the North Shore Inline Marathon.
The North Shore Inline Marathon boasted 4,000 inline racers this past year, and it continues to grow in popularity each year. This marathon and committee is in no way affiliated with the Grandma's Marathon, but the inline race follows roughly the same route as Grandma's; starting in Two Harbors and following Route 61 down into Duluth. The only change is that once the skaters hit London Road, they break off into the "tunnels" to get to Canal Park instead of continuing on London Road like Grandma's Marathon does.
This race is held in mid-September, so it adds to the excitement that Duluth has to offer each year. Whether running or rollerblading suits you best, Duluth offers two action-packed weekends that will be sure to keep you coming back year after year.


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Car Forums / Acura / Acura MDX
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adding on a rear view camera for base MDX 2009
We just purchased a new base Acura MDX 2009, and we are now wondering if we should have spent the extra money for the navigation package to get the rear view camera. Thoughts about third party rear view cameras as now we are thinking about getting one installed through the dealer or after market?
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The BlizzCon schedule, EU style
And the truth is that you're going to be staying up pretty late -- the conference will finish up around six in the morning there, so if you want to see all of the costume contests and Ozzy's concert on Saturday, better make sure you've got plenty of coffee and/or Red Bull on hand. And even if you fall asleep, don't worry: we'll have you covered.
Update: Here's one done by a reader with Australian times on it.
BlizzCon 2009 is coming up on August 21st and 22nd! We've got all the latest news and information. At BlizzCon you can play the latest games, meet your guildmates, and ask the developers your questions. Plus, there's some great looking costumes.
Filed under: Events, Fan stuff, Odds and ends, Blizzard, BlizzCon


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