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Tuesday, June 10, 2014
One more attempt at clarifying my position on Russian options
My recent rant "Please tell me my worst fears will not come true" was clearly very poorly written and my subsequent attempt to clarify what I meant did little to improve the mess I apparently had created. To be honest, I never went to "blogger school" and I am painfully learning this trade by trial and error including a lot of errors. I naively had thought that putting enough caveats would make my intentions clear:
"I will thus readily admit that I might be over-reacting"
"my brain tells me one thing, but my gut tells me another"
How could I make it more clear that 1) I was speaking from the heart/gut and not making an analysis and 2) that I was fully aware that I was over-reacting? I don't know about others, but to me the admission of doubts and fears is never a sign of weakness. Courage and strength is not denying doubts and fears, but acting rationally in spite of such feelings. Maybe that is not done in the blogosphere, or maybe I did it on a clumsy way, but I did it the best I could and with as much honesty I could. I would have imagined that those who had called me a "Putin groupie" or "Kremlin shill" would have approved of my open admission that I truly trusted neither Putin nor the Kremlin, but somehow only those who were upset by that admission showed up. Oh well, another valuable lesson for me: expected a beating every time you show your feelings.
But the "killer sentence" which I should never have written as I did was this one: "Russia has to act now and use her armed forces to liberate Novorossia. Not to do so would be a betrayal of the Russian people." That was a "cri du coeur" (cry from the heart) which overshadowed all the caveats before it. This being said, I categorically deny that I had a change of heart. Before Poroshensko's inauguration speech I saw a set of circumstances we can call "A" while after his inauguration speech I saw a new and different set of circumstances we can call "B". A change of heart would be to say that a the same set of circumstances warrants a change in policy. That is not what I wrote, but I have to admit that what I did write was highly misleading: pure emotion and distress and not a rational analysis.
I also know what triggered my reaction, and here I will place the blame on Putin, Lavrov, Zurabov (Russia's ambassador to Kiev) and Peskov (Putin spoksman). What triggered my panic attack was the totally lame and lukewarm reaction of Russia to a speech which was a real declaration of war not only on Novorossia but also on Russia herself: not only was Poroshenko's speech filled with various anti-Russian statements echoing the worst, most ignorant and most ugly Right Sector propaganda, but he even clearly spelled out that he considered Crimea has Ukrainian: that was a threat on Russian land. And what was Russia's response? *Nothing*. Zurabov just sat there and Putin and Lavrov stayed silent. I have no heard a single word of criticism coming out of official Moscow. That is what really freaked me out. That an the *terrible* timing of the decision to strengthen the border between Russia and Novorossia. And I still think that Russia's public policy committed a terrible "faux pas" by remaining silent in the face of such a public display of Nazi bigotry and arrogance.
I have spent the last 24 hours reading many Russian articles written by very sharp analysts, I have carefully listen to all the main news shows, I have also taken the time to listen to some specialized shows (such as Igor Korotchenko's "GenShtab" on Voice of Russia) and I have come to the conclusion that Russia will not accept a Nazi regime in Kiev nor will Russia abandon Novorossia. Frankly, this is bigger than Putin and we should not focus on personalities too much, even political giants like Putin. Why? Because even in the exceedingly unlikely possibility that Putin for some reason cave to the Empire, he would be committing political suicide, Juan is absolutely correct about that. I still think that Putin does want to do the right thing, but if not - then he will be forced to.
So what do I think (rather then feel) Russia should do?
I have to admit that there is one major argument against a direct Russian military intervention in Novorossia: it is an undeniable fact that the people from Novorossia themselves have not done enough for themselves. Yes, the self-defense forces of Novorossia are heroes, and yes, they are fighting very well even though the force ratios in the favor of the Nazis is anywhere between 5:1 to 100:1 (depending on the day and location). But even though more people have heard Strelkov's appeal the numbers are still nowhere near were they should be. That is a fact that I cannot deny.
The argument that the NDF are under-equipped is being addressed right now. I have seen footage shown on Russian TV of sophisticated air defense radars used by the NDF and I have it from several good sources that modern equipment is regularly showing up. I have heard that today 3 Ukrainian MBTs and at least one MRLS have been destroyed by the NDF. My feeling is that pretty soon the NDF will establish their own "no-fly" zone which the Ukies will not dare to penetrate very often (they have already lost *a lot* of their rotary and fixed wing aircraft). This no-fly zone will soon be followed by a "no drive" zone for Ukie armor (enforced by modern anti-tanks weapon systems). The problem of artillery can only be solved by providing the NDF with the means for counter-battery fire. That will be tricky, especially with long range artillery. But with no FACs on the ground or in the air, artillery strikes will not be very effective, even if still devastatingly deadly for the local civilian population. Snipers could be found and trained, I suppose (they can make the life of an artillery unit really miserable). Supplies, ammo dumps, and generally the logistics should be attacked and sabotaged. In other words, as soon as it has the means to do so the NDF has to go on the offensive.
Frankly, there should be a "principle of subsidiarity" of sorts at work here: before the Russians intervene the people of the Donbass have the moral duty to to everything they can to defend themselves. Then, if needed, Russia should intervene to prevent a genocide in Novorossia. But first the locals have to do more. What Russia can and should do is to provide military, technical and financial aid to Novorossia, whether covertly or overtly (why can Russia not do exactly the same as what the USA is doing in Syria?). My understanding is that Russia is already doing that.
There is, however, something that Russia is not doing or, rather, there is something which Russia is doing and which she should stop doing: smiling at Poroshenko and sticking to this silly "our Ukrainian brothers" script: what is left of the Ukraine today is no more no less than a Nazi Banderastan and Russia should not even bother pretending that there is a love fest between these two entities. No need to do anything provocative or hostile, just to stop pretending like Russia is oblivious to the kind of Banderastan is being built. As for Novorossia Russia should openly support it in the name of anti-Nazism and provide it with technical, financial, political and informational support. As for the West, it is *already* acting as if Russia was heavily engaged in a full-scale support campaign for the breakaway regions - so why not do that anyway?!
Finally, the Russian should learn from their American counterparts and make the human rights issue a huge political stick. Russian diplomats should simply inundate the world media with protest about every single war crime, every single human right violation, ever single violation of the freedom of the press and every single case of corruption. Protest constantly, drown the Ukie Nazis with lawsuits on all levels, denounce them at every public events, etc. First that will take a toll on the regime in Kiev and, second, it will show the anti-Nazi forces in the Ukraine that they are not abandoned.
There is a lot Russia can do besides using her armed forces.
Bottom line is this: my heart and my gut tell me that Russia should intervene now: impose a no-fly zone, open humanitarian corridors and destroy the Nazi death squads. And if that happens tomorrow morning I will be elated. But my brain has to accept that the most rational way to deal with this situation is to do everything short of an over military intervention. I will readily admit that I am torn and that I have not found a way to reconcile the two. There are better people out there that have done a much better job at that then I have, but I am not sure that I envy them.
One more issue: a US nuclear threat to Russia?
I have no doubt at all that this is nonsense and that the US is not contemplating such a threat or, even less so, such an attack. Why? Because it is absolutely and categorically impossible for the USA to strike Russia in such a manner which would prevent Russia from executing a retaliatory counter-strike. I have already written about this and just want to repeat it here: while there probably are some politicians who dream about such an option, the US military knows that this is absolutely impossible and nothing will change that in the foreseeable future. No matter what attack scenario you consider, Russia always will have the means to basically make the USA disappear as a society. Of course, the same is true for the USA which Russia cannot disarm in a first counter-force strike. Forget it! Really. During the Cold War we have made a lot of very fancy simulations and the result has always been the same, and all the folks in command in the USA know that. Also, nothing has fundamentally changed since the late 1980s. Most of the current nuclear systems date from that period and while all sorts of progress has been made, it has not resulted in some kind of breakthrough, much less so one upon which anybody could waged the survival of the entire norther hemisphere of our planet. In fact, I would argue that the Russian nuclear forces today are both more survivable and more capable, especially the latest road-mobile ICBMs and the submarine launched ballistic missiles. So one thing I can guarantee: there is no nuclear attack threat to Russia (and nor is there one to the USA, of course). As for a US tactical nuclear strike on a Russian force entering Novorossia, it would have an absolutely catastrophic political effect on the AngloZionist Empire, not to mention that nobody in the Ukraine will be grateful for this. Even if the US used a "cleaner" neutron bomb the political fallout with be huge, even inside the USA. As for Russia, it could even win this one by not retaliating in kind (remember, war is the pursuit of politics by other means). So forget about these rumors about a US nuclear threat to Russia, even if B-2s and USN ships are moved around. They are "showing the flag" - not threatening Russia.
I hope that this last effort of mine to fully clarify my position has been more successful than my previous one. I know that this blog is making a lot of people angry and that they will use this opportunity to again misrepresent what I wrote or try to ridicule me. Fine, let them. Frankly, I don't care much about their "opinion" nor am I competing in some kind of popularity contest. Besides. I am confident that most of you will recognize these efforts for what they are.
Enough about doubts and fears for now - tomorrow back to the regular daily work.
Kind regards to all,
The Saker
150 comments:
Saker, good video. Has an interesting point concerning no-fly zone, i.e. that it will take a lot of "geopolitical capital" to implement. A more cheaper and easier solution would be to just provide financial/military support - as long as it's not blatantly obvious (S-300), nothing the west can do about it. - 10 June, 2014 03:03
Saker regarding not enough Local Donbass men rising up and joining the resistance: that is not true anymore as admitted by Strelkov's latest posting on June 8th.
According to Strelkov, he apologizes/backtracks from his previous accusation of a lack of local support. He now admits that there is not a lack of will on the part of the men of Donbass to take up arms, there's a lack of ARMS (& other supplies). I feel compelled to re-post that part as I don't think you've had a chance to read it:
Stelkov June 8th Siterep and explanation of his earlier fear of not enough recruits Part 1:
Translation by Gleb Bazov: http://www.twitlonger.com/show/n_1s22khu)
Col Strelkov:
I logged on with a purpose of writing down a few lines, while thankfully we have a quiet period here. The Ukrainians are waiting for rocket deliveries. I repeatedly read comments of the following kind: "Why should Russia help those who refuse to fight for themselves?" As if 90% of Slavyansk residents are hiding at home. And the writers refer to my statements, saying: "Strelkov said it himself." I consider it my duty to provide an explanation:
If we had sufficient weapons, then the Slavyansk garrison alone would have numbered several thousand fighters.
If we an ability not only to arm (as well as provide clothing and shoes to) our fighters, but also to support their families financially, at least at the level of an average local salary (do not forget, people come to risk their lives!), then in Slavyansk alone we already would have had a division and had to deal with a line-up waiting for weapons.
If we had a secure rear (and an army at war is critically dependent on a secure rear), then we could have conducted a mobilization that would have given us tens of thousands of fighters, and people who are even now working (and I mean really working, not lying around on couches like the great multitude of office plankton in Russia's megalopoli, who have long ago forgotten what it is like to work in industry and in the mining sector) would have readily and en masse come to our aid.
There will always be a dearth of volunteers. My recent video address (concerning the lack of men willing to fight) was intended NOT FOR RUSSIANS, BUT FOR DONBASS RESIDENTS, and was aimed at slightly increasing the numbers of recruits. The video address achieved its goal. Now we have almost too many recruits, but we have neither weapons, nor shoes, nor uniforms to equip them and to put them into action. The assistance that now comes from Russia (NB: Strelkov is referring to weapons and volunteers that arrive on a private basis) WAS NEEDED A MONTH AGO. AT THAT TIME, IT COULD HAVE BROUGHT US SIGNIFICANT SUCCESS. As things stand now, this assistance is barely allowing us to stand our ground, but gives us no chance to turn the tide in our favour (see earlier post about "the chewing of a certain substance by the Kremlin bureaucracy.") We have nothing, everything is delayed by not just days, but weeks. And laugh all you want, but Ukrainians significantly outpace us. However clumsy their machine may be, it is now directed by competent guys from overseas, although I can only imagine how they rage and climb the walls because of Ukrainian slowness and screw-it-all siesta attitude, which just about how I feel about their Russian counterparts. And these guys are chasing the dilapidated machine forward with kicks, forward to eliminate and to erase Novorossiya from the face of the earth. And with their other hand, they throw the Kremlin various carrots in the form of "partial payment for gas," "negotiations", and so on. And days turn into weeks, weeks into months, and still we have no real help, and the successes we achieved early on, while on the rise, have long ago dissipated. The stick bends and bends, it cracks and fractures, but for now it still bends. When the stick finally snaps, with a crunch, it will be much too late. WE NEED RUSSIA'S HELP NOW LIKE WE NEED AIR TO BREATHE!... - 10 June, 2014 03:04
The reason I have been following your posts, and occasionally commenting, is because behind the words there hides an honest human being :-) I don't doubt that there is a spiritual underpinning to this: it is heartening to see this search for honesty in such an uncertain world. So just keep on doing what you are doing. Ask honestly and I'm sure you will be given an honest answer.
David K in Auckland
- 10 June, 2014 03:06
Dear Saker,
I think most of your readers understood you. At least, I wasn't confused by your posts.
About being worried, I will tell you this. Over the past several years, there were four distinct occasions on which I thought India was about to lose her independence. Each time, though, India out-maneuvered her enemies. I'm sure Russia will do the same here.
I offer my sincere condolences over the suffering in Novorossia. I am completely confident that karma (God's justice) is catching up to the evil-doers even now.
- 10 June, 2014 03:14
This post, and Auslander's yesterday, say that those in the Donbass haven't done enough. But Russia has systematically opposed Russian nationalism for 20 years, hasn't it? Where are the Russian NGOs, scholarships, educational lobbies, patriotic societies, paramilitary groups, etc.? The US had all these groups as a weapon, and Russia and Novorossiya had nothing. Now comes the complaint from Moscow that the locals aren't doing much. Leadership and organization don't come quickly. And a bunch of bribes to the Party of Regions so they can put money in British banks doesn't count. That is helping the enemy, and demoralizing as well, as you can see from the great support Yanukovich got during the Maidan.
Besides, the Kremlin wants federalization. What is that? Why fight for that? Wouldn't you be terribly demoralized if you lived in the Donbass? It is possible that a large percentage of the actual fighters in the Donbass are anti-Kremlin or even anti-Putin.
Paul - 10 June, 2014 03:16
Very good clarification, Saker. I see it the same way that you just explained it. Russia should avoid overt intervention, but under no circumstance should it allow Chocolate Hitler to seize control of Novorassia.
I'm curious what you thought of an idea I mentioned earlier, namely that Russia should offer money and passports to defecting Ukrainian pilots? In fact it can offer such incentives for Ukie ground officers as well. - 10 June, 2014 03:19
I am still of the opinion that Putin including all those surrounding him have some reasoning behind their action or inaction....i see that Putin not saying/doing anything is driving you partly mad....i wonder what it is doing for the dogs in Kiev or Washington....like ive said before the man is not stupid....nor is he afraid....in the words of Sun Tzu...make the enemy think you are far away,when you are near....and very close when you are faraway...it's all moves on the chess board...and some moves take time!!!!!
- 10 June, 2014 03:21
Thanks for taking the time to clarify your thoughts. The Bernhard Horstmanns (zionazi MOA blogger), the james, guest77, demian and the assorted "anonymous", among others, zio-queens will still run their smearing and disinformation, but their efforts will be obvious manifestations of their zionazi motivations. The simple fact is these bum toys are diametrically opposed to any change in that would result in less zionazi control.
For a graphic example of the zionazi mentality, when Auslander's description of his visit to a refugee facility in Crimea was posted at MOA, it elicited literally zero response. Compare that with what people here said. What kind of human being is so devoid of compassion as to behave like that?
This is the mentality we are up against in the zionised western corptocracy (NWO). - 10 June, 2014 03:22
I think maybe you're projecting either your humanitarian instincts, or your patriotic instincts, onto what you think the Putin or Russian state will do. Same as many Americans, including me, projecting my humanitarian instincs onto what I thought Bush/Obama or the US would do in various situations. It was a false assumption.
Just as a businessman is judged only by whether he/she makes money, and nothing else, so statesmen are judged only by how they advance the power of their state.*
Think of Kissinger, or Stalin. What would THEY do in Obama's, or Putin's situation? They would actually both do the same thing -- make sure that Ukraine is thoroughly destroyed for daring to double-cross them, to set an example for further interactions with the "lesser powers".
The value of Crimea was big. The value of collecting the natgas debt is several billion $$, which is something too. The net value of controlling Donbass? Despite the million+ people, not much, since whoever takes it over will have to clean up the mess.
Almost better, from the cold-blooded point of view, to let the right-wing-Ukraine-nationalists continue to commit atrocities, and as a side effect, further force their neo-con sponsors here in the US to either be further discredited in the eyes of the world for welcoming and supporting the war criminals, or to denounce them and thereby help remove the extreme right-wing militants and become somewhat civilized, which would really be the best possible thing. Not holding my breath, but this would actually be a win-win-win for the US as well as Ukraine as well as Russia, in this situation.
*The one caveat is that statesmen are simultaneously politicians, and are judged to some degree by their popularity. Sometimes this makes them do what normal human beings would consider the "right thing". But only if they have some kind of political competition, which as far as I know isn't the case for either Putin or Obama.
-PBJ - 10 June, 2014 03:28
The russians should assemble a documentary of how events of how events have unfolded, and why, and present their version of events to the world in a way that those living in the Anglozioshpere could understand it and see beyond their governments' propaganda.
- 10 June, 2014 03:34
Excellent post, Saker. I know you are extremely frustrated, as are many others, by the death and destruction happening while the World stands idly by and some even cheer the Fascists. Don't worry too much about the criticism from MoA and elsewhere they have their own failings and you do provide an invaluable source of information directly from the Conflict.
That said, I do see a weakness that is displayed by many commenters, it is the Cult Of The Leader. We set ourselves up for disillusionment whenever we too closely identify with these flawed and driven representatives of Power. It is only rarely that the People's needs and the Leaders actions actually coincide.
Putin appears to want a weak Federalized Ukraine which does not include any People's Republics and all of his actions verify this conclusion. If he actually invaded Ukraine the Russian forces would disarm the rebels and dismantle the Republics, this is why they are allowing the Kiev forces to perform that function for them.
Ukraine has opened an unique Pandora's Box in the heart of Europe with not only the Fascists rising but a true People's Movement rising from the ashes of the old USSR. - 10 June, 2014 03:36
Russia could take over a small NATO country, and there would be no nuclear war, or any war at all for that matter.
US Security guarantees are meant to work as a deterrent, not as a promise to go war, and risk NYC for Vilnius.
What would happen is a lot of planes flying around, ships sailing back and forth, troops being redeployed for exercises - but no real shooting.
NATO is a cabal of cowards, only good at verbal threats, displays of phony unity, and bombing small defenseless countries.
That's all.
- 10 June, 2014 03:36
Saker, you are a hero in your own right for your coverage and analysis of these events. Let no one discourage or dissuade you from continuing your valuable service to all of the innocent people affected so adversely by them. You have our gratitude, our appreciation and our respect for the role you have chosen to play here. I believe that the eventual outcome of this will be better for the people of Novorossiya because of your presentation of news and analysis on your web site. I believe that the knowledge and awareness you are offering us all will help build the support that these people need to prevail against the fascist oligarchs and the USA's nefarious ambitions in this part of the world.
- 10 June, 2014 03:37
- Meezer said...
Things in the long run will work out.
Remember, "Achieve victory not by numbers, but by knowing how"
Meezer - 10 June, 2014 03:37
Saker, I was encouraged yesterday to read several comments (and to write one of my own) that essentially re-affirmed great arguments you had earlier made in many of your brilliant analyses.
That's what friends are for, is to remind you of things you said before ;)
I confess that most everything I learned about Putin I learned from you, and I honor the man and won't doubt him now - nor his country, which I was taught to despise (to my deep sadness now, as I learn how perfectly I was lied to for decades).
Russia should NOT enter the Ukraine in any formal way, ever. Let it become a terrible thorn in the side of the empire, and as someone said, every day without war the empire fades.
The US had already lost the moment Crimea came home. Now, strategically and ultimately, it's just a matter of sweeping up the bits.
Peace, my friend. - 10 June, 2014 03:39
- Meezer said...
Observer said...
"According to Strelkov, he apologizes/backtracks from his previous accusation of a lack of local support. He now admits that there is not a lack of will on the part of the men of Donbass to take up arms, there's a lack of ARMS"
Okay so why didn't Strelkov look under his feet at the Volodarsky salt mine where over 1 million fire arms are being stored????
- 10 June, 2014 03:44
- Daruma Doll said...
You are absolutely right!
Russian nationalism is the worst nightmare for the oligarchy which became powerful by looting Russia's wealth and enslaving its people.
Even if Russian 1%-ers pay lip service to the glory of Russia, they ain't gonna give up their wealth and their power to restore the Russian people's pride.
And Strelkov and his men are first and foremost Russian nationalists.
This is why the Russian 1%-ers will gladly watch as the Russian nationalist militants get terminated in Donbass. - 10 June, 2014 03:48
I don't care if you moderate this or not Mr Saker maybe its only for you,,,,but you strike me as a personality that is a little volatile in your thinking,,oscillation is not aluxury in this game Saker,,,I have at times liked your analysis of situations but there are times that I can see you have no, fr'''ng clue like us what are the kremlin's thoughts on the next move,,,I know you try your best to fill in the gaps like we all do, but it will best and most honest to say instead of trying to live up to the image you have so painstakingly built up over the years,,,,you claim you are human like all of us,,,not infallible,,,then own up and say so when you don't know ,,postulate the theories ask for contribution and then refine the possible outcomes Mr Saker,,you are best equipped to do that not us,,,Donbass populace has not risen and you know that,,and the Kremlin can see that,, admit it...you did today..I am proud that you did,,,keep bringing out your most brilliant contribution to human survival on this planet,,,
- 10 June, 2014 04:05
- Meezer said...
Here's n interesting tidbit that I found in the article linked below:
Separatist Valery Bolotov, the self-proclaimed governor of the "Luhansk People's Republic", said his forces were flush with weapons that were pillaged from Ukrainian army and law enforcement bases.
"We are filling our arsenal. We have the means to fight tanks, warplanes and army personnel," he said.
- 10 June, 2014 04:14
- crazyivanreport said...
@ Dear Saker
All zones - no fly and no drive are defensive, NDF needs offensive mean. I read they are to get tanks. Either artillery or tanks are needed to overrun the f*** troops on Karachun Mountain.
What exercise militia are partisan efforts. Ukies are able to deliver steady stream of units and weaponry.
Everything what you wrote before the sentence:
"There is a lot Russia can do besides using her armed forces."
Wouldn't it be less costly if Russia moved into Ukraine to erase the thugs of Kiev's regime and the regime itself then pretend to do a lot. She maybe doing a lot but as for now it has no relation to the coming news from the fighting regions. It's psy-ops issue ands depressing.
What do you mean by "humanitarian corridors"? Deliveries medicine, water, food, etc to the beleaguered towns and still leaving those people under 24 hors bombardment or evacuating the weakest to temporary camps on Russian territory, "controlling" the influx of refugees or maybe you mean military operation under the guise of humanitarian help to push Ukie forces destroying towns and killing their inhabitants?
As for now I'm afraid Russia plays good uncle Bear, takes refugees and after a weeks the Ukies will have the ethnic cleansing done with few artillery batteries, media PR and with a lot of help from Ukies fried over the border e.g. Russia. What if the refugees won't be able to go back to their towns and homes?
Did you think over such scenario which emerges from present news and TV screens?
Regards - 10 June, 2014 04:15
- Daruma Doll said...
War is a continuation of diplomacy by other means, but we could add that diplomacy is the continuation of economy.
Putin's power is built upon the ability to monopolize and sell Russia's natural ressources.
Putin and his clique cling to their gaz and oil dividends.
Lets call these Russian oligarchs the Russian 1%-ers or for the sake of brevity the 1%R.
On the other hand, lets call the American oligarchic elite the 1%A.
The power of the 1%A is mainly based on the technical prowess of the American military industrial complex, the domination of the dollarized planetary banking system and their monopolization of the MSM.
It happens that the 1%R and the 1%A are having a turf war, the 1%A are the "old money" and intend to be treated as first among (non)equals, while the 1%R want to have their share of the planetary cake and are fed-up with being considered as junior partners.
So that is why we have this all situation, which started not in Donetsk, Lugansk or even Kiev or Lvov, but in Cyprus or more properly in the Mediterranean Sea between Cyprus, Israel, Syria and Lebanon.
Gazprom really thought that he could grab the gaz deposits found there.
1%R negotiated with Israel, counted upon their friendship with Assad in Syria and the massive presence of Russial monies in Cyprus banks.
But the 1%A were not sleeping and they did all the necessary to prevent the 1%R from increasing their leverage.
Hence the Syrian war, the end of the love affair between Putin and Israel and the raid upon the Cyprus banks by the EU.
That is why Putin held upon Crimea with such tenacity, to be able to project power in the Eastern Mediterranean, and also to grab Black Sea's hydrocarbon ressources.
But Donbass?
Who needs such a place?
Especially when South Stream's very survival is in question, while Yarosh has threteaned to blow the pipelines which supply the 1%R gaz to the EU market ( in fact one of them has been sabotaged in the Western Ukraine a few weaks ago)...
- 10 June, 2014 04:18
I think you made yourself clear, to me at least. Especially by being emotional at times. That is what makes your analysis's both enjoyable to read and constructive.
Mikhas. - 10 June, 2014 04:20
- Daniel Rich said...
@ Saker,
I appreciate a [wo]man who speaks from the heart, for those are honest words.
A person might not agree with them, but such a notion doesn't nullify the intent or the integrity of the speaker.
A mountain can only be a mountain, because of the valleys beside it.
Q: Snipers could be found and trained, I suppose (they can make the life of an artillery unit really miserable).
R: Errr..., you mentioned 'long range' artillery batteries/units'... Although there are very powerful rifles out there, a marksman [and his team] still has to be relatively close to his intended target.
Thor M408 long range sniper rifle - 2000 yards
More on sniper rifles
You can't make this stuff up; Concerns grow Putin is looking to 'destroy' NATO. - brought to you by FOX Truth-seekers [they obviously didn't find it yet, but hey...] - 10 June, 2014 04:28
Mr. Saker -
as I read your "rant", I could picture the terrible flashbacks you were having, pictures from Yugoslavia. So - quite understandable ranting.
I want to say several things -
1) Smiling is quite the right thing to do - and I do not doubt that Putin and Co. have all kinds of weapons and tricks hidden in all kinds of suit pockets, both the pockets on the outside of the suit, and in the lining.
2) One thing I really liked reading about was how the ordinary Ukrainian conscripts were locked up in a room while the officers did the fighting (news by Juan)- and on Crosstalk, how the people in Lvov were putting down trees to block the roads to hamper conscription. I particularly loved learning how the captured Ukrainian conscript soldiers were disarmed, given a chance to change into civilian clothes, and sent off. Their families and friends will be really grateful - and also very important, word will spread about this and what the Right Sector is doing and the Novorosian response ...
3) The news about the Russian border being sealed was worrying, but I think it does not apply to the actual official border crossing point, which allows women and children to escape. One also has to think about Right Sector forces coming in to blow up something.
4) And the biggest weapon of all, the equivalent of a Big Bomb - is the payment for the natural gas.. No natural gas - no payment - general chaos - the Russians can afford to smile and be impeccably polite.
-- Medea - 10 June, 2014 04:28
"it is an undeniable fact that the people from Novorossia themselves have not done enough for themselves. "
Strelkov has said that he doesn't have as many guns as there are volunteers. In other words, he'd have a bigger force if he had more weapons.
Sorry for the psychoanalysis, but I have a feeling that long before this war began you got seriously offended by some Ukropropaganda, for example by their assertions that Russians are part-Asian and that there's something wrong with that. And perhaps you now feel that these people have to jump through hoops to compensate for that.
The people of the Donbass had nothing to do with that Ukropropaganda. It's West Ukrainian in origin. You're blaming the wrong people.
Besides that, all of the Ukraine has been subject to Western anti-Russian propaganda. Russia has to start countering that with its own message. I saw a TV show recently where someone proposed the idea of transmitting Russian TV into cities like Odessa from Russian ships out at sea. That's a no-brainer. Nuland bragged about spending $5 billion on "democracy", which I'm sure was mostly propaganda. Russia should at least match that going forward. It's worth it.
If Russia and the West had spent the same amount of money on propaganda in the Ukraine over the last 20 years, then the current level of pro-Russian enthusiasm across the Ukraine would indeed be disappointing. As it is, it's extremely impressive that after 23 years of anti-Russian propaganda with hardly any Russian mass media response some regions of the Ukraine are still pro-Russian.
"there is something which Russia is doing and which she should stop doing: smiling at Poroshenko"
I agree. If this was purely a conflict between armed men, the violence would be easier to take. But the piglet's government has attacked civilians many times. The Lugansk air strike, the shelling of apartment buildings in Slavyansk. Trying him for crimes against humanity isn't politically feasible at the moment, but that doesn't mean that it should be OK to shake his hand. And his masters will never agree to any meaningful talks. Any future talks would be like those Geneva accords. So there's no practical reason to be polite to him or to converse with him at all. All it does is offend the memory of the people he's killed.
- 10 June, 2014 04:33
I think that the sentence you wrote reflects exactly what many people feel. Frustration, anger and total disbelief that the murderous Nazi ideology has again manifested itself in full daylight of mainstream western politics.
If not for my wife I would personally make my way to Slavyansk or Donnetsk and do something, anything to support these people.
There is absolutely nothing wrong with your sentence & the fact that you express anger at the crimes against humanity being commit-ed.
Thank God I do not write a blog for I would be arrested for the kind of things I want to express.
Its best I try to just send medical aid somehow. Can we organize something via your connections.
I pray & dream daily of things I hope will happen to a number of individuals in KIEV & associated filth. Very nasty things to make their war crimes stop.
So there is nothing wrong in my eyes with your expressed frustrations.
- 10 June, 2014 04:39
- Lucky mcgriff said...
Dear Saker,
Thank you, God bless your efforts for they are a speck of sanity, in a country that is all but silent on the issue, all except for bashing Putin and praising democracy, all the while bashing that same democracy in Syria. It's disgusting already. You are indeed answer to many prayers to find some truth in this world!I am grateful for you and your insight into this atrocity. No one seems to want to talk about it here, it's too real, graphic, disturbing for most of my us friends, family, or clients. Here your able to give people hope, in a country filled with doubt and the avoidance of reality. We all have to also remember mentally stable people can not possibly predict what psychopaths would do. Due to the fact we not psychopaths. Again keep up the great work you are greatly appreciated! Blessings! - 10 June, 2014 04:50
Caught between your heart and your head. I know many of us are in the exact same position, and that is what I saw you express in your initial post, and that is what sets your blog above most others. Keep on Saker.
- 10 June, 2014 04:59
"Okay so why didn't Strelkov look under his feet at the Volodarsky salt mine where over 1 million fire arms are being stored????"
I remember him saying that he didn't have enough weapons early on. Then that changed. His guys got more guns from the Ukrainian army and on the black market. I don't think they ever had a million though. I remember someone saying during that glut period that he had roughly two guns for every man. Then after his appeal he got more volunteers and eventually said that he was back to not having enough guns.
So his claim that he doesn't have enough weapons isn't new. - 10 June, 2014 05:03
- Stu Piddy said...
It occurs to me, and I'm not really knowledgeable specifically in this area, that Porochenko arrived in office with the idea of immediately talking and acting tuff to Russia with the idea of negotiating with Russia.
The tuff talk was for the people supporting him, the real talk maybe negotiations to end the fighting. The tuff talk was apparently backed up with lots of military activity. Perhaps it's all show, to cover up the softer negotiations.
It's not unusual Politicians are more than just two faced, but multi faced.
Look at Obama, he's talking peace with war on his mind. It confuses people and it has worked for him and others. - 10 June, 2014 05:08
To one who has become a valued friend:
The most profound things in our world are a paradox; In Physics light is both a particle & a wave, In Theology there is sovereignty & free will, In Community there is freedom & responsibility, In Politics there is ???
You use the name Saker, and while you have the quick insight and analysis of one, you also have the real heart of a compassionate human being. Never loose either; hold on to both, give full expression to both.
The comments under your original rant were the best I have seen on this blog. You are deeply appreciated - for all that you are. We too look in the mirror and have to live with what we see.
One added thought... I think Politics is the art of both building consensus/momentum and imposing solutions.
Many of those commenting on this blog have long been part of Putin's consensus, but we contribute little to imposing solutions. I submit to you the idea that the big boys behind Putin best situated to help in the process of imposing solutions are only now moving toward a consensus.
Peace to you and your family. - 10 June, 2014 05:09
Please pass on this suggestion to people in the field.
The North Korean leadership DPRK could send troops "proxi conflict" and equipment to get real combat experience.
Politically it would benefit The N Koreans tremendously to frighten the South Koreans.
Life is cheap in DPRK & Novorussiya could use the N Korean assistance. as a Psy ops also good
N Korea couldn't give a hoot about the media fallout and N Korean generals would enjoy the publicity. Let someone out there send a short invitation to Kim Jong Il - 10 June, 2014 05:09
This is more in line with the current state of play.
Putin should also make it perfectly clear that the full power of the Russian state will be used to defend Russians. He implied it in Crimea, but then muddied the waters in Donbas. He needs to be crystal clear about that if he wants the continued support of the Russian people.
The concept of Anschluss was raised in Western circles as if it was a bad thing. It isn't.
Margaret Thatcher invoked it over the Falklands.
The US invoked it over 9/11 (despite the indicators that it was an inside job), and uses it to justify an unending war on "terror".
Putin should realize that to the Frankfurt School he is Amalek, and nothing will ever change that. He needs to start talking to he rest of the planet. - 10 June, 2014 05:13
Whew! You had me really depressed! Dealing with politician's is always frustrating. I'm thinking VVP and the boys just wanting to get the next gas bill payment before they kick too much ukie ass. You are right, first and foremost, the SE has to step up to the plate.
Are there any charities in the Donbass? Obviously Paypal is out. - 10 June, 2014 05:15
The Bulgarian authorities are not abandoning plans on the construction of the South Stream gas pipeline and say the implementation of the project is inevitable
According to Bulgarian Economy and Energy Minister Dragomir Stoynev, the country was not giving up its plans on the South Stream construction - 10 June, 2014 05:16
- Survival Acres said...
I blogged for years with thousands of posts, so have some "idea" of how difficult it is to convey personal feelings, opinions and insights.
Don't worry about what your readers think. Be true to yourself - in the end, that is all that matters.
It's not relevant if others disagree with you. It's your blog, after all, and your the one writing it.
I've found your blog a tremendous resource. Keep up the good work. ~Survival Acres~ - 10 June, 2014 05:20
The Cake is being divided and neighbors like Hungary are getting hungry to get back whats theirs.
Hungary Wants Autonomy for Hungarians in Ukraine: Orban hint
- 10 June, 2014 05:23
- Daniel Rich said...
What Really Motivated Russia's Foray Into Ukraine - It's the gas, stupid.
- 10 June, 2014 05:30
Anonymous said...10 June, 2014 05:09
That's gay even for an Israeli. - 10 June, 2014 05:35
- C Stegiel said...
Saker the United States has used nuclear weapons with impunity. Moreover, we do not know what weapons are on the Space Plane.
I agree that under many scenarios nuclear weapons is MAD. But surely under some scenarios it is not. It is those unusual scenarios that I am concerned about. The United States is a mad dog. We do not know what tools they have to hold Russia back and control their military response. Obviously the calculation is that Russia will not fight. To date they are correct. Russia will not fight but help the fight. Russia is going to have war thrust upon them and I do not doubt the United States has war gamed limited tactical strikes as a last resort. This may seem insane, but 9/11 is the wake up call that nothing is going to stop the drive for global hegemony.
"Rods from God" is the nick-name given to a hypothetical orbital weapon for bombarding targets on the Earth from space. Just how feasible is this concept? http://www.armaghplanet.com/blog/rods-from-god-a-terrifying-space-weapon.html
Fallujah's New Nuclear Weapons And Petrodollar Warfare ...
Mar 22, 2013 - "Results from a survey of 711 households in Fallujah on cancer, birth ... of bomb– which seems to be a Neutron bomb – (was) used in Fallujah.
http://www.nuclear-demolition.com/911-wtc-thermo-nuclear-demolition-how-it-works.html - 10 June, 2014 05:41
- SanctuaryOne said...
As the Saker publishes in the Asia Times I'd be interested to know what he/she thinks of this article there today from Ismael Hossein-Zadeh:
"A world war between classes, not countries"
Specifically the line: "...President Vladimir Putin of Russia effectively blinked in the standoff with Western powers and announced on May 7 that Russia would respect the presidential election in Ukraine,..."
Also if the theme of a "class war" has a degree of merit how does this relates to Russia.
One of the goals of the USA is obviously regime change in Russia; in practice, how much power do the oligarchs have?
(Great stuff Saker, keep up the good work!)
- 10 June, 2014 05:47
If I can put it clearly, Saker's role and his talent on this blog is not to be the soul of reason and perfection in his assessments, but since he is Orthodox, he leads his 'flock' in somewhat the way an Orthodox priest leads his. That is, he is not performing and having comments to applaud the performance, but his commenters are active participators in the 'work' that is being accomplished. As in the church, the people need a priest, but also the priest needs the people.
So, even when some of us might think oh, he is going off the rails here, the active dialogue that then ensues makes it all worthwhile. And because what he says is from the heart it always has that element of truthfulness - there is no guile in him.
And that's, if I may refer back, an antithesis to the Grand Inquisitor figure, for whom the people are needy, nonparticipants, willing nonparticipants. It's all up to that one man who stands alone and makes all the decisions, an awful and inappropriate condition for any human being.
It might be, too, why he will always be struck painfully to the heart by naysayers on the blog - any who don't go forward in the common enterprise of searching out the truth of the matter for the sake of those who suffer. ('Saker' has maybe that meaning as well - one who pursues for the sake of...)
Putin's speeches have a similar healthy resonance to me. I would like to hear him speak more, because he reminds us of the parameters of the problem, as does Lavrov - and perhaps we will hear more when the position at the UN allows it. Perhaps that is why he is so circumspect at the moment, awaiting the appropriate time.
None of us mere mortals has all the answers to this difficult situation. But together, maybe we can bring some light.
- 10 June, 2014 06:23
- Joanna said...
Hi Saker,
I agree with Survival Acres:
write what you see fit, and do not worry about someone disliking you.
Same goes for comments, I was called all kinds of names by simply stating facts few people want to hear, never mind consider.
"Stepped" on your blog recently and I do appreciate your essays, writing and information.
Good job!!! - 10 June, 2014 06:24
"Besides that, all of the Ukraine has been subject to Western anti-Russian propaganda. Russia has to start countering that with its own message. I saw a TV show recently where someone proposed the idea of transmitting Russian TV into cities like Odessa from Russian ships out at sea. That's a no-brainer. Nuland bragged about spending $5 billion on "democracy", which I'm sure was mostly propaganda. Russia should at least match that going forward. It's worth it.
If Russia and the West had spent the same amount of money on propaganda in the Ukraine over the last 20 years, then the current level of pro-Russian enthusiasm across the Ukraine would indeed be disappointing. As it is, it's extremely impressive that after 23 years of anti-Russian propaganda with hardly any Russian mass media response some regions of the Ukraine are still pro-Russian."
But now we have to ask why Russia has spent nothing. Alexei Pushkov tweeted about how Russia had put 200bn into the Ukraine and the US 5. Who got more bang for the buck? It is beyond normal understanding why Russia was so passive about propaganda and building a Russian civil society inside the Ukraine. They had to be ready for another color revolution at the minimum, so what was their strategy? - 10 June, 2014 06:25
- Joanna said...
Hi Saker,
I agree with Survival Acres:
write what you see fit, and do not worry about someone disliking you.
Same goes for comments, I was called all kinds of names by simply stating facts few people want to hear, never mind consider.
"Stepped" on your blog recently and I do appreciate your essays, writing and information.
Good job!!! - 10 June, 2014 06:26
- Joanna said...
Hi Saker,
I agree with Survival Acres:
write what you see fit, and do not worry about someone disliking you.
Same goes for comments, I was called all kinds of names by simply stating facts few people want to hear, never mind consider.
"Stepped" on your blog recently and I do appreciate your essays, writing and information.
Good job!!! - 10 June, 2014 06:27
Ukraine President Once Agent for U.S. State Department
- 10 June, 2014 06:28
Saker, I am sure you know well the saying that prayer is standing before God with your mind in your heart. Take your mind into your heart in this instance also. Best wishes.
- 10 June, 2014 06:31
Hi Saker -
In response to:
'And what was Russia's response? *Nothing*. Zurabov just sat there and Putin and Lavrov stayed silent. I have no heard a single word of criticism coming out of official Moscow. That is what really freaked me out.'
The monsters organizing the attacks against eastern Ukraine should feel disturbed that the Kremlin has kept its composure. It is an expression of the Kremlin's self-control and the fact that it has plans. We know that Moscow is keeping a record of the human rights violations, and it has already made statements about its intentions. Everyone knows what Russia said on this point. Some things don't need to be said more than once, unless they are intended as a threat, which is a weaker thing than stating an intention.
Sometimes when you say nothing, it affords you a better position of power when you proceed with your plan later. Responding directly to an opponent should be done in a way that doesn't empower him; silence would be a better alternative to doing that.
In response to:
'That and the *terrible* timing of the decision to strengthen the border between Russia and Novorossia.'
That announcement could translate into a number of different things on the ground which aren't hurtful to a peaceful outcome in eastern Ukraine. Sometimes it's not a question of how something is described, but how it is implemented and for what purpose it's really being implemented.
In response to:
'I have to admit that there is one major argument against a direct Russian military intervention in Novorossia: it is an undeniable fact that the people from Novorossia themselves have not done enough for themselves.'
Yes, that seems important.
In response to:
'smiling at Poroshenko and sticking to this silly "our Ukrainian brothers" script: what is left of the Ukraine today is no more no less than a Nazi Banderastan and Russia should not even bother pretending that there is a love fest between these two entities.'
I find this banter to be intriguing. This talking of 'brothers' and friendly smiles and etc. seems like a position that is intended to be viewed from the perspective of a longer timespan than weeks or recent months. It expresses confidence in their own plan. It could also be viewed as like saying "obviously you personally hate us and you are trying to ruin everything for Ukraine but, as individuals, your stay here is temporary..." with the wolf's smile coming afterward. There are times when a smile should be perceived as scarier than a snarl.
Yc - 10 June, 2014 06:46
When I hear Russia must ...
Please show me a document that defines the Russian debt to the citizens of other countries!
About nationality - do not, please.
Vlasov was Russian. Krasnov too. Russian - no excuse!
Sorry for my english ( - 10 June, 2014 06:56
This is an internal civil war. If Russia were to intervene, it would escalate the conflict in a different direction.
The only possible intervention is indirect, covert, and through propaganda. Yes if NATO sends in troops so can Russia. But no matter how many die, Russia has to conform to international law. The same law that you mentioned Putin wanted to abide by.
Also what does Russia gain by intervening directly. It only stands to loose. It needs no more territory? There is no strategic goal to be achieved. And what will be the outcome of the intervention? What does Russia stand to loose? My guess is a lot more.
How many people have died compared to so many other conflicts? Cause if the principle was human life being sacred then numbers should not matter. Russia should have intervened immediately. But the truth is that it's far less, so far, than other civil conflicts.
We can all call them Nazis but what difference does it make. Most of the mainstream media does not. Most people do not. And even if they were Nazis, does it make it ok to intervene? Were the Bath in Iraq not worse? Was their slaughter of its own people not worse? Was Saddam not worse than the chocolate king? But everyone knows that the US invasion was illegal. Nothing changes that. No matter how much gas Saddam used. You can argue that America went in for oil, while Russia will go for humanitarian reasons. But, in that case, there are a lot more other places Russia should intervene in.
The Taliban slaughtered so many hazaras when they took Mazar-e-Shareef, they killed Iranian diplomats. I heard they sold hazara women in the south. What did Iran do? More or less the same thing Russia did. Build up troops on the border and threaten an invasion. It played it smart. Who is in power now across Iran's border?
I think the fact that, and excuse me if I'm wrong, it's Russian speaking civilians dying that is clouding your judgement.
Putin at the G7 was amazing. Obama acted like a spoilt child. When you kept writing about Putin, I had lost some of my liking for him. But his conduct was exemplary. I think he's playing the game well. I saw the videos you posted. They will anger a lot of Russians and a lot of decent human beings, but widening the conflict is not the answer. You have to win the war not a battle or two. By all means send in men, materials, arms, medicine, but do it smart.
This article by Bhadrakumar is also very good. It's related in a way.
Mindfriedo - 10 June, 2014 07:05
I like this one as well... the girl puts into words what i think and feel nowadays.
Начало Геноцида в Одессе Ответ на Никогда мы не будем братьями
incl. German Subtitles, Deutsche Untertitel.
- 10 June, 2014 07:19
dear saker, (anti-religious people pls. ignore)
there are several places in the Qur'an that says that if a community (in the context usually translated/interpreted as meaning Muslims, but could just as easily be interpreted in a more universal context) ... fails in its responsibility, then another nation/community will be raised who will do what needs to be done... i.e. being gentle with those of faith, and being stern with the oppressors.
There is also a verse the only verse repeated - so the emphasis here is very strong: that says that with difficulty comes ease, or, after every difficulty comes ease...
So, our work is nothing more than to do what we must do ... to struggle, journey etc. ... God will take care of the rest...
The action/inaction of Putin/Russia will not determine our future, or if the empire succeeds or not. Our struggling will make a difference, not in the sense, of "personal is political" "be the change you want to be" - I don't buy that level of individualism. But that those of us who struggle, we keep on the path of struggle, God will not abandon us - our responsibility in some ways is so minimal just to stick to the path, and all else will be taken care off...
Finally, inshallah, when there are enough people who will remain strong, we'll see the rise and return of Jesus (peace and blessings upon him) and that of Imam Al-Mahdi and we'll all be home free... no worries. :-) - 10 June, 2014 07:36
In a game of chess Donetsk and Lugansk are just peasants. And as long as not every able man is fighting there its not worth to spill the blood of russian soldiers.
They should have at least 100000 men,not some 10000...
When Novorussia doesnt want to really fight,why the Russians should do it? - 10 June, 2014 08:04
Let me tell you what Russia should do: it should say "yo, you are 10 million fuckers there and expect our guys to come lose their lives for you - get off of your asses and fight for yourself. We can help you with weapons, but we won't do your job".
- 10 June, 2014 08:08
Russia is right to strengthen its border - to prevent crazy Ukes from infiltrating Russia itself. Such a strong border under Russian control in no way prohibits the loss of this and that which just happen to be found by people who could make use of them against the crazy Ukes. If fact, it is essential.
- 10 June, 2014 08:33
- Wim Roffel said...
Saker, I agree with you that Russia should do more regarding human rights. However, I believe the accent should be on providing documentation.
Take the Odessa massacre. Probably the best English language resource is the translated Antifascist article. However, that article does not provide links to evidence like videos. And as a magazine article it had to leave out a lot of the kind of details you sometimes find in a HRW or AI report.
What I believe is needed is something similar to A Closer look on Syria. That is a place where people collect and order evidence.
That is the kind of pages where you can refer people to who doubt something is wrong. And unlike some magazine article without links they cannot easily discard it as propaganda. - 10 June, 2014 08:36
- Sten-Erik Björling said...
Thanks for a very good blog.
Regarding the risk for nuclear conflict it is correct that reasonable and knowledgeable people understands and knows that such a conflict only can end badly and there are no real chances of protection via ABM-systems etc. But the problem is that we are dealing with functional idiots in the form of neoconservatives and delusional people that due to their beliefs in such preventive systems behaves recklessly and can drive the political systems into paths that are highly dangerous. Just like a 5 year old with a temper testing the safety on a hand grenade. Weapons do not kill - people do... And the neoconservative nutties are desperate and also the financial and security complex actors behind them. That is why ABM-systems are so dangerous - it gives the impression to unstable and crazy people that they actually can get away with eliminate Russia and China as threats to the existing order which is breaking down.
Take care, thanks for good work.
Sten-Erik Björling - 10 June, 2014 08:37
Not sure who are the people that missed your point the first time, let alone the second. I thought it was pretty obvious, especially when you stated ad nauseam that you're venting your gut feelings. Dont waste your breath explaining yourself to everyone, I am sure you know better than me that you cant please everyone simultaneously.
Stay cool :)
- 10 June, 2014 08:38
Good analysis. The primary game is money and power of the elites. The plebs only get to see the tip of the iceberg, i.e. politics.
Best wishes
Anonymous in Finland - 10 June, 2014 08:39
Dear Saker,
Your blog and thoughts are invaluable in these horrible times. I appreciate the amount of thought and time it must take to produce your high quality reports. Some time ago, you established moderation rules. May I propose an extension? Have an open-ended thread where off-topic items can be transferred to avoid disrupting the otherwise high quality of posts.
- 10 June, 2014 08:40
SanctuaryOne, one must wade through an awful lot of 'Radio Free Asia' shit at Asia Times, these days, not to forget the Judeosupremacist lout who calls himself 'Spengler'. If not for Pepe, I wouldn't touch the place with a barge-pole.
- 10 June, 2014 08:50
SanctuaryOne, one must wade through an awful lot of 'Radio Free Asia' shit at Asia Times, these days, not to forget the Judeosupremacist lout who calls himself 'Spengler'. If not for Pepe, I wouldn't touch the place with a barge-pole.
- 10 June, 2014 08:51
Hope I'm not showing something which has been posted here before but thought this article was worth sharing ...
http://dish.andrewsullivan.com/2014/06/05/is-putin-winning-in-ukraine/ - 10 June, 2014 08:56
- Einar Schlereth said...
17Dear Saker, some time ago I started to translate some of your excellent articles and posted them on my blog (einarschlereth.blogspoot.com) where they are widely read. I introduced you also on Tlaxcala (international translators network) and put your feed on my blog. I did all this because of your intimate understanding of the whole issue AND your heartfelt emotions. I'm doing the same and I made the experience that people appreciate it. They are fed up with the cold, brainless nonsensical statements of media commentators and politicians.
Keep in mind the Chinese saying: the dogs are barking and the caravan just continues.
Yours sincerely
Einar Schlereth - 10 June, 2014 09:01
"What triggered my panic attack was the totally lame and lukewarm reaction of Russia to a speech which was a real declaration of war not only on Novorossia but also on Russia herself"
Might it be too much to remind you that public statements on BOTH sides are for PUBLIC consumption, not at all indicative (or in very indirect and contorted ways) of their real thinking and positions.
These are not even addressed to an audience like the commenters of your blog or similar ones but to the TV watching bozo crowds of EACH SIDE.
- 10 June, 2014 09:03
What you don't seem to see mentioned is the IMF, which has said something to Ukraine in the effect of crush the rebellion and keep the WHOLE of Ukraine intact or you won't get a penny. Doesn't that pretty much make negotiations impossible?
- 10 June, 2014 09:07
"The russians should assemble a documentary of how events of how events have unfolded, and why, and present their version of events to the world in a way that those living in the Anglozioshpere could understand it and see beyond their governments' propaganda."
Agree! - 10 June, 2014 09:09
Saker - I have the highest regard for your comments. I had no problems with your earlier posts. I can only assume that many of your critics just don't like what you say. The A-Z Empire has many friends and supporters. Please do not be discouraged by such politically motivated hostility. You have real insight into this whole issue based on years of work and study. I doubt your critics have 1/100th of the information you have at your fingertips, and they are full of hate. Also, I assume you agree that the major reason for Russia not to use overt military intervention is that it plays into the US plan of pulling the EU into its TTIP economic grip. They want to stop the EU countries getting in on the EU-Russia-China silk road.
- 10 June, 2014 09:19
Dearest Saker,
"I don't know about others, but to me the admission of doubts and fears is never a sign of weakness."
You always say things so much better than I can or ever will.
God bless you and your entire family.
Remember brother, the Second Coming of Prince of Peace Jesus (as), when he will rule for 1000 years and bring all mankind under the Kingdom of God.
This is The Greatest Hope to live for, if not in our lifetime, then in our children's children.....
Best regards,
Mohamed. - 10 June, 2014 09:22
@Yarosh has threteaned to blow the pipelines which supply the 1%R gaz to the EU market
And you think that this would endear the Ukies to EU more than if the Russians would cut the gas? - 10 June, 2014 09:28
The blogsphere is involved in intelligence.
Intelligence is a weapon.
Careful how you use weapons as you can injure yourself.
Meantime some jollity from Poiland.
www.thenews.pl/1/10/Artykul/173273,Polish-mercenaries-detained-in-eastern-Ukraine-claim-separatists - 10 June, 2014 09:30
"Ukraine's president ordered the creation of an evacuation corridor so civilians can flee fighting in the country's battle-torn east after his Foreign Ministry said peace talks with Russia were yielding progress.
Petro Poroshenko, sworn in June 7 after a landslide May election victory, ordered other Ukrainian regions to take in refugees from where government forces are fighting separatist rebels who want to leave Ukraine and join Russia."
This is from Bloomberg which merges a description of the fighting from the point of view of the constantly winning Kiev Junta with a description of negotiations about Ukraine's purchase of gas from Russia.
In addition to proving every single point in Strelkov's interview, this article is very much worth reading to get an idea what it must have been like reading Japanese newspapers during WW II toward the end of the war. - 10 June, 2014 09:36
Also if the theme of a "class war" has a degree of merit how does this relates to Russia.
No, it has no merit.
If you have in front of you only one idea and it is America wants to create UNIPOLAR world, you will never go astray.
Peace to you and your family - 10 June, 2014 09:47
- JonL said...
What you are trying to say is quite clear to anyone with half a brain. Don't be put off by those who willfully misinterpret what you are saying. I think you are right in your analysis and your feelings. Keep up the good work.
- 10 June, 2014 09:53
This gives an idea of exactly how screwed up American Foreign Policy actually is.
They keep siding with the wrong people, largely I suspect out of deference to The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, a deference that is the gift that keeps on giving.
Without its bases in east Syria ISIS would be incapable to achieve such gains. This spillover of the Syrian conflict should be the alarm signal even Washington can not deny. The Syrian government troops will be needed to tear ISIS down. The U.S. must now turn away from the insurgents in Syria and support the Syrian government troops in their fight against the common enemy. Unless that happens the ISIS problem will only fester and threaten more states in the Middle East including Jordan and Turkey. - 10 June, 2014 10:16
even small serbia waging a bigger resistance to nato and the u.s than russia, it's a shame...like i've said before, putin and russia should stop looking at world affairs like some kind of beauty contest...russia will never win any "beauty contest" in the west...what propaganda war? during war in former yugoslavia, which is exact replica of the ukraine war, because it all started when west ignored serbian right to self determination, every single argument were on the serbian side...and what happens..serbia get nato bombs...there is no way that russia should gain or get some sympathy, understanding or any human treatment in the western countries...it's a waste of time and energy...and at the end, milosevic was at least TRYING to put some resistance to the west for a decade...russia is giving up after a couple of weeks...nothing else but a shame...
- 10 June, 2014 10:24
- mepela said...
As you said, is obvious that russian provided a full range of "fashion weapons", i could check there are antitank missiles like konkurs and kornet, igla-s and he newest one Verba, but i still missing something like Buk. I think is the only way rebels could set a non flying zone over their heads.At same time i find strange that rebels wouldnt able to manage some 2A65 Msta-B to reply heavy artillery from banderits, i still believing that Kremlin could do a little bit more, hope they dont take too much time to help propperly. Your blog is really great and i enjoy while read it. Best whises from Spain. NO PASARAN
- 10 June, 2014 10:50
one can do a hell of a lot worse than being a 'putin's fan,' something one is entitled to be proud of as a rational being rather than justify, apologize for, much less deny.
the world is looking up to russia and yes to him, personally as the agent of its restoration and the man who practically singlehandedly already averted an open war on syria, with hope for all the rest of us.
yes, we'd all like to see him rout the oligarchs-banderista cabal routed out now, immediately, but we have to trust that putin knows what he is doing and when exactly he should be doing it and how. you were the one reminding us that when it came to the cechen disaster he showed that he lacked neither resolve nor stamina.
we must also remember that he surely has info we don't.
yes, russia needs a better pr machie. until it develops it that's what gys like you are for with your excellent analyses.
- 10 June, 2014 10:51
- Abel Kotze said...
Keep it up good friend! We are all rational/emotional creatures and an reflexive emotional response is a sign of emotional maturity! We were watching a play in a top theater in Cape Town about the life story of an Imam tortured to death by Apartheid security police. My son, then 6, sitting with us on in the front row of the gallery, jumped up and at the top of his voice, shouted: Stop it!!!. The play came to an abrupt stop and continued seconds later. It was the proudest moment of my life!
I have no criticism for anything you wrote because we have learnt that their are three guards to the tongue: Truth, sincerity and necessity and you have those in place!
Akram abu 'Abs
South Africa - 10 June, 2014 10:52
Poroshenko has ordered an "escape corridor" for civilians to leave.
They are bombing the factories
The plan is indeed to scare the civilian population into leaving, and flatten the eastern provinces, then bring in settlers from the West. - 10 June, 2014 10:54
- Penny said...
Saker= human= allowed to make a mistake
If anyone attacks for that, their actions speak to their own misunderstanding and maybe some arrogance, or perhaps a level of vengeance, or perhaps even a bit of cruelty.
Better always to ask for clarification before jumping to conclusion - 10 June, 2014 11:05
You are honest, forthright and caring. That is not true of everyone else in the world (or we wouldn't be agonizing over Ukraine!), nor is it true of everyone else on this blog. Some people have their own agendas, and because of the quality of your work you have attracted, erm, some unprincipled defenders of the Anglo-Zionist Empire. Fight 'em back with data, sure, but their attacks just aren't worth taking personally. They're actually a sign of your good work, and they're going to try and getcha any way they can, clean or dirty, right? I mean, look at who and what they're defending, and realize the kind of crud-buckets who would do that, either voluntarily or for money. Blech!
I think you stated your case quite clearly and got really upset too about the border closing until Mr. Nora's comment about plausible deniability and keeping Ukies out made so much sense it calmed me down. And yes, this is HORRIBLE to watch, but again, not only are the people of the Donbass not doing all they can, the ongoing horrors, as Godawful as they are, still haven't really reached the "massive" stage.
But there's something else, too: years ago an au pair was accused of murdering the child in her care and she seemed to act kind of guilty but it turned out the child's parents had killed him and were blaming her. And it really made me stop and think: this poor hapless woman was so stunned both by the child's death and the accusations against her that she just didn't know how to respond -- but the people who were able to kill their own child had no problem at all doing whatever it took to make her look guilty. Uh, the Anglo-Zionist Empire are masters of propaganda -- Edward Bernays and Leo Strauss perfected the art of maintaining the forms of representative government while eviscerating its actuality, and the Mighty Wurlitzer now blares its lies worldwide. Meanwhile. Russia. Is. Earnest. Means well, does well, figures words don't matter as much as deeds. The difference between Russia and that poor au pair -- I hope -- is that the world can see quite clearly the benefits of Russia's approach as opposed to ours. The people of the world certainly can (with the usual exception of brainwashed Americans); the Neoliberal leaders, of course, feel no allegiance whatever to their own people, Just. To. Their. Own. Class. And people everywhere are beginning to understand this.
So the bottom line is, we've all got to find ways to sit out this conflict between our heads and our guts. I think we would all do well, in this period, to start figuring out what each of us on the sidelines can do to get the Empire under control and prevent more of the same. We're just like the Donbass -- we keep waiting for Putin rather than attempting to control our own fate (and, of course, that of the rest of the rest of the planet). And no, I'm not saying war or revolution -- there are other options than that! But unless anyone here is a part of the .01%, and I seriously doubt it, we are absolutely all in this together.
- 10 June, 2014 11:07
Saker - you're too hard on yourself. You're doing a great job!
Regarding the use of nuclear weapons, I am less sanguine than you, for two reasons.
First, most, if not all, AngloZionist leaders appear seriously mentally deluded. They are consumed by self-importance and hubris, among other characteristics such as hypocrisy and untruthfulness.
Second, while I would like to believe that the military would veto an unwarranted use of nuclear weapons, I have read that some elements in the military, specifically in the Air Force, are Christian Zionists who actually seek to initiate Armageddon in order to fulfil their belief in New Testament prophesy.
In addition to the mental delusions of both groups, I suspect that most politicians lack a technical understanding of nuclear weapons as well as lacking the imagination to visualize the outcome of an exchange.
While the concept of MAD has worked since 1945, its continued success depends on having sane leadership, both political and military, as well as having some safeties in deployment. For example, "Launch on warning" was a big step back in that regard.
- 10 June, 2014 11:21
Nothing exists in essence only alloy.
Unless you wish to protect and enhance the status quo - an impossibility in an inter-active dynamic system - you need a high content of truth in propaganda otherwise it will backfire eventually, irrespective of what Karl Rove thinks.
Using a notion of human rights posits that rights exist rather than power. To re-inforce that ideology would be counter-productive since this war, at least for some, is seeking to transcend.
One of the barriers to such transcendance is "history".
I note that on a different blog Operation Bagration was cited. Perhaps in the light of prevailing ideology and recent kabuki in France, the date, purpose and scope of Bagration might prove illuminating as well as productive, as would be why was June 6th 1944, June 6th 1944.
- 10 June, 2014 11:24
Dear The Saker,
We are all human beings and those of us who still posses our humanity will show and express how we feel - and there is nothing wrong with that.
Many of your readers know what you were saying and respect and appreciate all the time you take for us. I have noticed an increse in trolls - who are mainly the one's who question you - ignore them.
Its your blog and if you wish to vent please do so.
In addition to the hundreds who have already died three children have now died so this is becoming hard to swallow, though we have to put some faith in the Russian Govt. that they know what they are doing. I think the silence is to throw off their lunatic opponents and as much as we would love them to go and tell them what they think - just keep remembering - give them enough rope......
- 10 June, 2014 11:32
I don't even bother checking out MoA anymore -- already know the Zionazi line and don't need the agita. And again, any attacks on any of us are just a sign of *their* vulnerabilities, not ours -- wear them with pride!
I do miss Mr. Pragma though -- do you think he's here sometimes? I could swear occasionally I hear his voice... ;~)
Anonymous 03:34,
"The russians should assemble a documentary of how events of how events have unfolded, and why, and present their version of events to the world in a way that those living in the Anglozioshpere could understand it and see beyond their governments' propaganda."
TERRIFIC idea -- but why wait for the Russians? Why. Don't. WE. Do. One. ??? I'll bet there are enough people here with the skills (or access to those who have them), plus certainly any number of URLs of any material that would be needed. I'll also bet there are people with just the right propaganda skills to aim what is presented in ways that could reach even brainwashed Americans.
Now THAT would be a worthwhile project!
YES to our all falling, on occasion, into the Cult Of The Leader. We've really got to stop doing that -- it reinforces such awful passivity and people who leave everything up to their leaders really do deserve what they get.
What. You. Said. - 10 June, 2014 11:41
Dear Saker
I'd like to thank you for giving us all these information in your blog especially the strategic analysis of the actual situation in this one. I'm reading here the last three months and to be honest there were 2 or 3 days in this time I was totally sad about the whole situation in Ukraine thinking that Russia should do anything. Then I came to your site and read how you see it. This helped me always to calm down and to see that things were not so bad as it seems to me.
After Poroshensko's inauguration speech I was outraged. It is a declaration of war and the Russians should show clearly that they understood this. Apart from a military intervention there is now no more reason for consideration. As you said no longer "our Ukrainian brothers" – maybe they should stop negotiating the gas price and turn off the gas, until the Junta pays the bill.
I trusted in Putin all the time and I wouldn't drop him now. I'm sure he knows what to do and he won't disappoint us. It's just my gut feeling not rational.
Many thanks also to Juan for the SITREPs from inside Ukraine. My thoughts and prayers are always with you.
Jana from Germany - 10 June, 2014 11:41
- Nestorian said...
With all due respect: How exactly do YOU know that the US military knows that a successful nuclear first strike against Russia is impossible? So far, Saker, you have basically merely claimed this without providing any serious evidence whatsoever.
You will recall that I raised this issue maybe two months ago, and was rather cavalierly dismissed by yourself as well as others who post here.
But now things are different: The Russian non-reaction to blatantly escalating US provocations makes my original claim that the US actually HAS a successful nuclear first strike option MUCH more plausible than two months ago.
Under such circumstances, your former hand-waving dismissals of my claims are no longer sufficient. A detailed and exhaustive treatment of the US nuclear first strike issue on this blog ought now be on the top of this blog's agenda. - 10 June, 2014 11:44
In French and off topic of sorts, but to show the context of the West:
"Frédéric Pichon, chercheur à l'Université de Tours et arabisant, a consacré sa thèse à la Syrie. Spécialiste de géopolitique, il vient de publier : «Syrie. Pourquoi l'Occident s'est trompé»
"Comment en est-on arrivé à cette situation où la Syrie attire les djihadistes du monde entier, y compris les Français ?
J'y vois deux raisons principales : l'erreur commise par l'Occident de sous-traiter cette guerre aux pays du Golfe et la dimension religieuse que représente la Syrie dans l'imaginaire musulman. Mais tout d'abord, il faut mesurer l'ampleur du problème : il y a aujourd'hui en Syrie deux fois plus d'islamistes radicaux qu'il n'y en avait en Afghanistan lors de l'attaque américaine. 50.000 combattants djihadistes, c'est du jamais vu!
Quelle est donc cette erreur de l'Occident ?
Nous avons réfléchi à court terme, considérant que tous les moyens étaient bons pour faire tomber le régime d'Assad. Nous avons sous-traité le soutien aux opposants aux monarchies du Golfe, l'Arabie saoudite et le Qatar en particulier. Comme si les aspirations démocratiques du peuple syrien pouvaient être appuyées par des Etats qui sont tout sauf des démocraties ! Ces pays bénéficient de leurs richesses pétrolières et de l'influence des chaînes de télévision comme al-Jezira. Et beaucoup d'argent a été transféré vers les groupes islamistes radicaux, pas forcément par les Etats eux-mêmes, mais par des personnes privées de ces pays. Il serait d'ailleurs intéressant de surveiller les transferts d'argent qui passent par les banques. En Syrie, comme dans d'autres pays arabes, les principaux opposants aux dictateurs étaient les Frères musulmans, les islamistes. C'était là un pré-requis dans notre soutien aux opposants, dont on ne pouvait pas ignorer qu'il allait nous compliquer la tâche... Puis le conflit s'est enlisé et le régime d'Assad n'est pas tombé. Nous en sommes là, après nous être beaucoup trompés."
Le Dahu
- 10 June, 2014 11:45
A US think-tank land perspective:
What followed is essentially how these "frozen conflicts" were created; that is, de facto states that nobody, or very few people, recognize as independent. The danger [today] is that the longer things go on in southeastern Ukraine with no clear military victory on the Ukrainian side, you are going to continue to see these local entities creating their own governing structures. . . .
Any estimate on how much time Ukraine does have to reassert control before facts on the ground pose a major obstacle?
It can't continue to fight in any sort of major way for more than a few weeks or a few months, at most. And the difficulty here, too, is that you are dealing with more or less guerilla forces that are in populated areas, where it is very difficult to assert full military control without risking civilian casualties. And, of course, the more the Ukrainian government tries to respond militarily, the more enemies it creates on the ground. It's a classic counterinsurgency problem."
- 10 June, 2014 11:48
As for a US tactical nuclear strike on a Russian force entering Novorossia, it would have an absolutely catastrophic political effect on the AngloZionist Empire
Because a total nuclear war is absolutely destructive, Russia should react only with tactical nukes on some advanced USA bases. In this case the nuclear damage would confined to europa and to russian neighbors, and this would be a substantial victory of the "empire" in its "containment " strategy of its competitors - 10 June, 2014 11:50
- KC said...
Saker, there are people who are known as trolls on every blog. Some are just doing it to irritate people. Others are paid by the gov't to try to disrupt and discredit sites that are threatening. Yours would certainly fit that category. http://21stcenturywire.com/2014/03/01/paid-govt-and-corporate-internet-trolls-are-real/
Even banning them may not work to stop them as they can create endless entities.
Ignore them and consider that it means you are doing something significant enough to warrant such attention. - 10 June, 2014 11:57
"That's gay even for an Israeli."
I've been trying to figure out what you mean here and I just plain can't. In these regions, "gay" seems sort of a slur, but I thought that comment was TERRIFIC! Am I missing something?
You just blew my mind. Wow, what a comment!
Thank you. Sincerely, sincerely thank you! - 10 June, 2014 12:07
Rogozin again seems to be hinting at something...
https://twitter.com/DRogozin/status/476087457105346562 - 10 June, 2014 12:12
- Dei iudicium said...
"one thing I can guarantee: there is no nuclear attack threat to Russia"
Unfortunately there is a significant difference between desired situations and actual situations. Similarly, there is a significant difference between desired outcomes and probable outcomes.
Unfortunately many do not understand what is occurring. History is largely repeating only now it is occurring in a nuclear era. The militarism of the U.S./NATO bloc is globally expanding. This militarism is unlikely to cease. In addition to the many lower intensity conflicts that are globally expanding, larger conflicts (involving members of nuclear armed blocs) are approaching. As such the eventual outcome is both logical and largely predictable. When the eventual probable situation occurs that Russia faces an imminent overwhelming attack (conventional or nuclear first strike event), the response (despite the horror that it represents) will be both logical and necessary.
"The unleashed power of the atom has changed everything save our modes of thinking and we thus drift toward unparalleled catastrophe" [A. Einstein].
Just as no country wanted the first world war or the second war, similarly it is likely that the third global conflagration (which I believe is gradually unfolding before us) we largely be unplanned.
Indeed, the events in Ukraine (involving U.S./NATO proxy operations) are merely part of a larger picture.
"If the war does not significantly change the world's political map, the U.S. will not achieve its aim" [Donald Rumsfeld]
The so-called 'Global War on Terror' is being misused to pursue broader strategic objectives. It is truly a global war.
As computer simulations indicate that mutually assured destruction is almost unavoidable as a result of a nuclear war event, the probable coming horror will likely result from desperation rather than calculation. A nuclear war event however does not translate to human extinction but it is a horror that if it occurs will eclipse all wars in history (it is survivable but for some time the survivors will experience hardship).
Unfortunately, it is likely that in time these many globally expanding conflicts will be recognised as one. I am comfortable to allow time to reveal if my assessment is correct or not. I hope that I am wrong. - 10 June, 2014 12:17
the ukraine nazis are trying to do the same thing like croatia do, terrorizing civilians which ended up in the ethnic cleansing...with no russians in ukraine, there are no problems, that the modus operandi of the nato and the eu in ukraine, as well as in former yugoslavia...and we should stop talking about russia winning hearts and minds in the west...it is fruitless...can you imagine poroshenko, yats or turchinov in the hague tribunal for war crimes? of course not...it will never happen...russia has no other choice but to show some strength or expect maidan in moscow...
- 10 June, 2014 12:27
Have you heard of this plan, which seems to consist in moving people from west to east Ukraine. Doesn't remind you something happening elsewhere?
L'Ukraine et le schéma du génocide kirghize?
http://russiepolitics.blogspot.ru/2014/06/lukraine-et-le-schema-du-genocide.html - 10 June, 2014 12:42
Just in case you doubt the US
read this:
(CNSNews.com) – The desire of some elements in the Middle East to "eliminate Islamists entirely from the political scene" was complicating the fight against violent extremists, a senior State Department official said on Monday, citing the tendency of some to "conflate Islamists with terrorists."
The remarks were made in Doha by Assistant Secretary for the Near East Anne Patterson, whose tenure as U.S. ambassador to Egypt was marred by allegations that she was too cozy with the Islamist Muslim Brotherhood before the military ousted it last July.
Video Link: http://www.mrctv.org/videos/state-dep-t-official-advises-against-conflating-islamists-terrorists
Le Dahu
It really does set the global scene, unfortunately Ukraine is just the latest piece.
- 10 June, 2014 12:44
Dear Saker
Thanks for the article. In your last couple of posts I thought you'd lost it. This is more like you, welcome back to your track.
I'm sure you know much better than I or most who reply to your posts that an emotional reaction is close to suicide in a conflict situation. As the scout Mackingtosh (?) (played by Burt Lancaster) in the film "Ulzana's Raid" said "the first one to make a mistake gets to bury his people". Whilst I feel, as you've said, that Russia should be, quietly but firmly and not in emotional bursts, highlighting every single war crime that the BanderNazis commit, knee-jerk reactions play into the NeoConZioNazis hands. Again you'll know better than most that in a conflict situation, the worst thing you can do is what your enemy wants you to; the second worst is to do what they expect.
Russia has to tread carefully here, it's important not to get too embroiled in the immediate situation and to take a wide and long view. We can be sure that Putin and the Kremlin certainly do. As you rightly point out in this post and previously, the Novorussians need to do more to help themselves before the Kremlin can do anything overt. For all the Kremlin knows, there may be a significant number in Novorussia that support Kiev. Until they vote with their actions and not bits of paper, it would be hazardous for the Kremlin to take overt action. And why should Vladimir Putin ask Russians to fight and die for Novorussians who won't do it for themselves?.
Also as you've said before, if Russia does intervene overtly, what then? As I keep hammering on, the Kremlin's responsibility is to the interests of Russia and its people, and not to get involved in a game that the NeoConZioNazis have started and set the rules to. Play their game and it's likely that you'll end up playing catch-up all the time. The key thing is to start your own game, with your own rules, one that they can't win. Moon Of Alabama commented on this here: http://goo.gl/p6aLBw and that seems to me to be rational.
The Kremlin also has to consider the Syrian situation, as this is one of the bear traps being set. It's a mirror of the Novorussian one in that the NeoConZioNazis are pressing for humanitarian corridors backed by force, No-Fly zones and arms to the "rebels" (aka one of the CIA's private armies). If the Kremlin reacts emotionally to the Novorussia situation, Syria could be lost to the NCZNs and this would be a huge threat to Iran, jeopardising the growing Russia/China/Iran alliance against the NCZN empire. With a block like this in place, I'm sure that many other countries will feel they can throw off the yoke of the NCZN empire and join the real new world/resistance to the empire. Without it, we're all going to be empire subjects, and we know how they treat them.
End of Part 1 - 10 June, 2014 12:46
Part 2
There's also the bear trap that the EU quislings are setting: by ordering Bulgaria to stop work on the South Stream pipeline, they're obviously reinforcing the NCZN push to ensure that Russia is forced to supply Europe with gas through the Ukraine pipelines only. With this, if Russia tries to get its money from Kiev for previous gas supply, Kiev/Washington will threaten that if they are cut off for non-payment, they'll block supply to Europe and blame it on Russia. In either case, Russia will be bleeding large sums of money needed for their economy and military, unless they can reroute the entire gas supply to China, which may not be far from possibility. There's also the the new situation that the epoch making agreements that Russia and China signed (vastly more than just the supply of gas) is starting off. This will need time to gel before it can get into full swing, and doesn't need diversions.
As Moon Of Alabama points out, probably the Kremlin's best strategy is just to wait. The Ukie economy is heading for a very deep black hole. It has the potential for pulling the EU and the NCZN empire down with it, not because they would need vast resources that they can't spare to prop it up - because they won't offer them - but because Kiev will default on their debts to the banks and this could well trigger off a new, deeper "credit crisis" (lol, the biggest heist in the history of the world: how to transfer people's present and future assets into the ruling classes Caribbean bank accounts without most people knowing that's what happened) that will send Western economies and their banks into a tailspin. If that happens then it's hasta la vista NCZN empire. Do you think they'll fight to avoid that? Sure they will. How? By killing ethnic Russians in Novorussia and hoping that the Kremlin will react emotionally. It's a hard fact but sometimes commanders have to accept casualties in order for their wider strategy to succeed. I'm sure that part of this is to avoid giving the NCZN empire any excuse for putting NATO forces into the Ukraine and rushing through it's accession into NATO, which seems to be their aim. Not reacting impulsively will leave the Kremlin elbow room to deal appropriately with any NATO forces that subsequently do enter Ukrainian territory. - 10 June, 2014 12:47
Saker, I for one understand completely your position and the exasperation at the current events. I've just seen a breaking news alert on RT about Lavrov and his latest statement concerning a possible associations agreement between The EU and the Ukraine. He's said how Russia doesn't consider introducing sanctions against the Ukraine in the event that Kiev signs the agreement. These kind of statements are all very well when trying to deescalate the situation and show you don't have a desire to meddle in Kiev's internal affairs. My beef with this is that it's all getting too friendly and considerate. I recognize it's not rational but sometimes I wish the Kremlin would just tell them straight to their ugly faces where to sho*e it instead of tiptoeing around them for fear of offending or being perceived as aggressors.
I don't see Putin as a weakling for going about this conflict the way he is. I imagine it takes a lot of mental and spiritual strength to contain your response when you see the level of violence and depravity displayed by the pro-Kievs in Eastern Ukraine. What's more, being the President of the Russian Federation I'm certain he has his means and sources that keep him informed of almost everything transpiring in the Donbass. I expect he's seen the full extent of the atrocities committed in the East. That's exactly why I keep telling myself he has all the information he needs and if he's not responding with a direct military intervention yet, then maybe he's seeing the bigger geopolitical picture here coupled with all the repurcussions of a possible war that he's trying to avoid. I think he does see a bigger picture that we - the armchair commentators can't fully grasp.
Yet I'm with you on one thing - I have complete faith in President Putin but I also acknowledge that no one is infallible and I just hope and pray this won't turn out to be his first major mistake. Let's all hope he's reading the situation correctly and hasn't misjudged the level of his opponents'stupidity. - 10 June, 2014 13:02
This is an internal civil war.
Back in 1991 I thought that conflict in Yugoslavia was internal civil war.
Now after 23 years exile I can clearly see it was covert aggression and pure invasion as it is the case of Ukraine now. Balkan has been turned into (covert again) slavery and in a year or two they will be marching toward Moscow as they did back in 1941-1944.
When people ask me how it started, I often say: In supermarkets! Back in 1988 there was huge inflation and shortage of mainly three articles: coffee, washing powder and cooking oil.
In Serbia propaganda spread rumors that shortage is caused because Croats have all of it, in Croatia it was - Serbs have all of it.
It went on for many months with further economical hardship pulling out all historical hatred from previous centuries.
Friends and families started breaking their ties and stopped talking. Few busloads of criminals from prisons were deployed to Bosnia and Krajina and it very quickly escalated into armed conflict. I have seen shipment of 30,000 tons of weapons in port, been broken from the single waybill into 6 separate shipments to each of the federal republics and newly formed paramilitary units of the Yugoslavian republics.
Behind it were powerful fifth column of communist oligarchs which turned overnight into democrats. They have sold their country and their people for the future of their own kids who are vassal rulers there now.
The rest are slaves. - 10 June, 2014 13:03
can you give a forecast ?
Is the humitarian coridor the begining of the all out assault? I think ukie has 3 options.
1.leaving - pull troops out and start negotiations
2. besiege - continue the siege until the defenders are dead/surender/breakeout (Alesia Rome style)
3. assault - storm the city (stalingrad / Berlin style )
The escape coridor for civilians could be the prelude for all three actions.
I perosonally think they would try option 3. They have the siege weapons (arty) to shell the defenders and the higher armored firepower to defend themselves against an outbreak. A force of infantry will have problems to attack armoured forces in open terrain. Howerver the question is how many supplies both sides have. Every day of fighting costs the defenders ammo and men, and even if they inflict higher losses then casulties, their numerous disadvantge could still grow e.g. Fore A 100 Force B 10 , battle A looses 10 B looses 2 , that would men A losses 10 percent and B looses 20 Percent, a tactical victory could become a strategic defeat. The difficullties to help the wounded could increase the losses (no medic supplies for the besieged)
Another question: Do you think a massive arty attack will make an attack easier or harder ? The destroyed buildings would make movement of armour more difficult and maybe give the defenders more cover !? If that´s the case I assume that a massive arty attack would make more sense in a besieging battle, it could mean more problems for the defenders to move and supplie themselves in a destroyed city. - 10 June, 2014 13:08
This is totally O/T -- but maybe not. I am sure somebody will snipe, but again, it will say a lot more about them.
https://www.youtube.com/embed/uaWA2GbcnJU - 10 June, 2014 13:11
To the non-English speaking contributors to this blog: never do you need to apologize for the manner in which you translate your views into English. Those of us who cannot converse in your native language feel such respect for you when you make the attempt, and always the sincerity of the effort outweighs by far any awkwardness. Thank you.
- 10 June, 2014 13:11
- Tim De G said...
People will use this blog for whatever purpose known to them. Perhaps some are employed to disinform the comment section, to set up destructive resonances and vibrations. The foundation of any blog is in the comments, no comments equals no foundations. A blog, as opposed to a simple ideological vehicle, will resound with emotion and rationality, with questioning, conflicting ideas and self-criticism. There is no need to be concerned. I don't believe the digital sphere can provide the wherewithal for collective action or consciousness, we return to our lives when we look up from the screen. You provide me an alternative view; an escape from the sensory deprivations of MSM: clear air in which to make up and settle my own mind.
With respect to the horror in the real world, I can still choose, if I were a brave or a young man, to fight the fascists a la Orwell...to survive a fascist bullet in the throat is surely a vindication!
To paraphrase Bush II, you are either a fascist or an anti-fascist. The politicians and the trolls will do as they see fit.
Please continue Saker, and may the good work of killing nazis continue also.
PS. I saw an article on France24 this morning about neo-nazis from all over Europe (why they don't just call them Nazis I don't know) being trained by Kiev. I confess to a fleeting fantasy of the Ukraine as a kill zone for the Euro Ultra-Right. Is there not plenty of nazi blood in that soil already...a bit more wouldn't hurt? - 10 June, 2014 13:22
- Petri Krohn said...
Translated by me:
Glazyev: We need to close the sky and hit Ukrainian armored vehicles in Novorossiya
Advisor to the President of the Russian Federation Sergei Glazyev (Сергей Глазьев) at a round table in MIA "Russia Today", expressed his opinion on the solving the Ukrainian issue. According to him, the U.S. wants to draw Russia into war with Ukraine. At the same time Kiev increases its military power. Glazyev believes that Russia still has a chance to disable the Ukrainian army, but six months from now there is no such chance.
U.S. is "forcefully, persistently and consistently pushing Ukraine to war with Russia under the pretext of the Crimea", and the goal of Poroshenko is "war on Russia, because different Crimea not return," said at a roundtable on "The Situation in the Donetsk and Lugansk regions of Ukraine and Russia's position "Sergei Glazyev.
"The Americans and their proteges Kiev are headed for militarization, the formation of a dictatorial Nazi regime, the full mobilization of the population against Russia ... Ukraine has a large army, it is conserved, but the industry is now working in Kharkov at full steem, restoring tanks, armored vehicles. Even today, there are no less than 200 units of armor fighting actively, and every day the amount of armor increases. The same applies to aircraft, "- continued the Advisor to the President of the Russian Federation.
He added that Kiev authorities have used all means at their disposal against the Donbass and "will apply them to the end, to the complete destruction of the resistance."
"I recall the words of Churchill: "presented with the choice between war and shame, if one chooses shame, one will get war too." This is a modern war. This does not mean that we need to move our tanks to Kiev, but we can at least stop the genocide of the population" - the news agency quotes Glazev.
Sergei Glazyev proposed to close the sky over the South-East of Ukraine, following the example of the U.S. action in Libya, and incapacitate Ukrainian armored vehicles. According Glazev now it can still be done, but six months later will be too late.
"It's enough to close the sky and use the same mechanism of suppression of military hardware, which the Americans applied in Libya, which initially covered the sky, from the air then shot armored vehicles, artillery, aviation, and so did the regime with which they fought, unfit for combat . We still have the opportunity to do so, within six months of such a possibility would not be", - said Sergei Glazyev.
"Look at the dynamics - in December if the Nazis in Kiev had 2 thousand people, in February 20 thousand, in May 50 thousand in the military. By the middle of the summer there will be 100 thousand; in September, 200 thousand by the end of the year they will have armed 500 thousand people," - Glazyev continued.
"We've got the most powerful military machine, oriented against us, lard Nazis ideologically charged against Russia ... The ultimate aim of all the action is a war with Russia. We can not keep the peace if we lose Donbass, as the next target – as already advocated – will be Crimea"- he concluded.
Source: http://rusvesna.su/news/1402400512
Also here: http://gordonua.com/news/worldnews/Glazev-Nuzhno-nanesti-udar-po-Ukraine-poka-ee-armiya-ne-okrepla-26485.html - 10 June, 2014 13:27
Hello Saker
Have posted and followed the Syrian conflict from an
exceptional blog called Syrian Perspective..hosted by
Ziad Fadel
The journey of what Putin and Russia will do now is
something many of us there over the years have struggled
There may be a few Syrian Perspective posters here in the Vineyard
Think I recognize 1...
We learned that Putin is moving the chess pieces for several moves later
he calculates will happen
When and after Russian techs had modified the Syrian
Mig 29 's and SU 24 's....they were weaponized with the
stand off anti ship missiles...drilled...and then linked to
Russian radar and C4I
This and many other tactical assets were stuffed into Syria
While US NATO watched...
What did Putin care...the next move gets a fist
Obama blinked...
Syria has to fight....Russia will assist and provide
It will probably be the same for east Ukraine
Organization will occur...this was the pattern in Syria
The east has done well in these few weeks
3 Mi 24...2 Mi 8...2 transport..and 1 Su 25
Not to shabby for fighters learning it on the fly as they say
Ziad had many posters doing the Russian flip flop
plus hasbara trolls and free syrian army rats showing up
to mock
So then...your blog is far less toxic and pressure level than
He managed things well over the years..
Posted responses...was opinionated
was himself..
The reason his site was and is...the best coverage
of the Syrian war
- 10 June, 2014 13:42
Excellent points, Saker. Also, excellent comments. Thanks everyone!
- 10 June, 2014 14:07
This is what the president of the RF Glazyev said about the Ukraine situation. http://rusvesna.su/news/1402400512
and in english;
Advisor to the President of the Russian Federation Sergei Glazyev (Сергей #Глазьев) at a round table in MIA "Russia Today", expressed his opinion on the solving the Ukrainian issue. According to him, the U.S. wants to draw Russia into war with Ukraine. At the same time Kiev increases its military power. Glazyev believes that Russia still has a chance to disable the Ukrainian army, but six months from now there is no such chance.
U.S. is "forcefully, persistently and consistently pushing #Ukraine to war with #Russia under the pretext of the #Crimea", and the goal of #Poroshenko is "war on Russia, because different Crimea not return," said at a roundtable on "The Situation in the Donetsk and Lugansk regions of Ukraine and Russia's position "Sergei Glazyev.
"The Americans and their proteges Kiev are headed for militarization, the formation of a dictatorial Nazi regime, the full mobilization of the population against Russia ... Ukraine has a large army, it is conserved, but the industry is now working in Kharkov at full steem, restoring tanks, armored vehicles. Even today, there are no less than 200 units of armor fighting actively, and every day the amount of armor increases. The same applies to aircraft, "- continued the Advisor to the President of the Russian Federation.
He added that Kiev authorities have used all means at their disposal against the #Donbass and "will apply them to the end, to the complete destruction of the resistance."
"I recall the words of Churchill: "presented with the choice between war and shame, if one chooses shame, one will get war too." This is a modern war. This does not mean that we need to move our tanks to Kiev, but we can at least stop the genocide of the population" - the news agency quotes Glazev.
Sergei Glazyev proposed to close the sky over the South-East of Ukraine, following the example of the U.S. action in Libya, and incapacitate Ukrainian armored vehicles. According Glazev now it can still be done, but six months later will be too late.
"It's enough to close the sky and use the same mechanism of suppression of military hardware, which the Americans applied in Libya, which initially covered the sky, from the air then shot armored vehicles, artillery, aviation, and so did the regime with which they fought, unfit for combat . We still have the opportunity to do so, within six months of such a possibility would not be", - said Sergei Glazyev.
"Look at the dynamics - in December if the Nazis in Kiev had 2 thousand people, in February 20 thousand, in May 50 thousand in the military. By the middle of the summer there will be 100 thousand; in September, 200 thousand by the end of the year they will have armed 500 thousand people," - Glazyev continued.
"We've got the most powerful military machine, oriented against us, stuffed with Nazis ideologically charged against Russia ... The ultimate aim of all the action is a war with Russia. We can not keep the peace if we lose Donbass, as the next target – as already advocated – will be Crimea"- he concluded. - 10 June, 2014 14:09
I ment the Advisor not the president.
- 10 June, 2014 14:16
from the excellent craig paul roberts:
In 1973 a British television documentary series was released that chronicled WW II. Of the 28 episodes, only 3 and a part of a 4th acknowledge Russian participation in the war. From the British standpoint, victory was an Anglo-American victory.
This did not sit well with the Soviet government. The Soviets offered their film archives to the West. In 1978 a 20 part series of 48 minutes per episode was released in an American documentary television series narrated by Burt Lancaster. The documentary was titled: "The Unknown War."
Certainly, it was a war unknown to most Americans, raised as they are on propaganda."
Russia needs to tell its side of events to the world, as this blog does, on a large scale. - 10 June, 2014 14:17
- Christopher said...
Security experts in the U.S. do not agree that Russia has a credible nuclear deterrent. The story is that the Russian nuclear force is in disrepair and that the U.S. can easily destroy most of what is left. They may be wrong--but that's what seems to be the thinking by at least some officials.
- 10 June, 2014 14:24
Any thoughts?
Sergei Glazyev said that the Ukraine/US was steadily building up a large military machine that will be very hard to stop if more than six months pass. This was on MIA "Russia Today". He argued that a no-fly, no-move zone was required. The target after the Donbass is the Crimea. - 10 June, 2014 14:25
Ukraine is just snakes tail. You don't beat snake in the tail, you beat it in the head.
gratings from Belgrade - 10 June, 2014 14:30
Dear The Saker,
Good article today in VOR in regard to South Stream and everything that has gone on:
Veritas - 10 June, 2014 14:56
Russia may do what she will, but there is one thing that is unacceptable: to betray HER OWN people who are getting killed by Nazis in south-east Ukraine.
Everything else I can swallow, but this I cannot.
Btw, there are interesting news :
Breaking news
Lavrov: Russia won't sanction Ukraine if Kiev signs association agreement with EU
Lavrov: Russia won't sanction Ukraine if Kiev signs association agreement with EU
Published time: June 10, 2014 12:20
Edited time: June 10, 2014 13:08
Russia doesn't see any obstacles to Ukraine signing the EU association agreement, said Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. He added that Moscow will not impose any sanctions and will return the trade regime with Kiev to 'most-favored' status.
The Wend. - 10 June, 2014 15:06
- Lucky mcgriff said...
Dear Saker,
Are the am radio stations here in the us establishment actors?
Thanks! - 10 June, 2014 15:14
Yes, I would worry about an attempt to invade and take Crimea.
- 10 June, 2014 15:16
while you dismiss Andrew's hypothesis I think we can agree that the dynamics changed significantly around the time he suggests. Russia had been trying to negotiate a compromise with the EU last fall, Washington's response was to sabotage negotiations and foment a coup in Kiev when it became clear that Yanukovych would not sign the association agreement as it stood. Russia massed troops on the Ukrainian border, conducted military exercises there, annexed Crimea, buzzed the NATO ship in the black sea, and flew their AWACS plane near the European borders. Military action was threatened in word and deed. There were numerous high level contacts between Washington and Moscow and many verbal threats.
Then Moscow withdrew troops, accepted the may vote, did not prevent the shelling of civilian areas in the east, is negotiating over gas deliveries, and will not oppose the EU association agreement.
Washington has not materially changed their behavior from what I can see.
Something has changed.
That said, the rebels in the east appear to be holding their own and have had some military success and seem to be receiving sufficient arms and material and have sufficient manpower to continue to hold off the Kiev thugs absent some material change in the dynamics.
Perhaps Moscow has simply reassessed their options and decided that time is on their side. Much as I am horrified by what Kiev forces are doing and might wish for some immediate heavenly retribution for the evils being perpetrated I still think that Russia trying to administer Ukraine following an invasion at what ever scale/extent would be a disaster. Wish I had fly on the wall info to better understand what strategies are in play.
the pessimist - 10 June, 2014 15:16
All of you should be writing and calling Rand Paul's office as well as Senator Heller's office if you are worried that the neocons will do a nuclear first strike on Russia. I called on the NATO issue and they told me I was the only one who ever called who was not on the "russia is bad" side. There is zero action on this issue compared to the many calls senators got over Syria last August. IMHO, that's the biggest disaster about the current situation. Americans don't care either way and, thus, Ron Paul's son in the Senate doesn't care.
Meanwhile, an observer from outer space reading clues from the Internet would say that both sides are covering up heavy losses on the Ukr side. The Ukr side would report any successful action because it is in their interest. The Russian side has, for various reasons, the opposite interest. For them, the ideal is to be winning while the news is saying the opposite (so US neocons don't say "We need to go protect those who can't protect themselves"). To keep the neocons out of this, Moscow will want a Ukrainian Baghdad Bob to keep saying "we're winning" right down to the end.
Strelkov is reporting major ambushes (that Tymchuk is not reporting either side is making) and in key places like the big autobahn that goes past Slavyansk or the roadblock between Slavyansk and Kramatorsk. I don't get the idea that the Ukr forces in Krasni Liman are having an easy time and can easily just drive back out to the autobahn and back up to Izyum ("Raisin" for those using google translator for russian reports).
If the autobahn isn't safe, the entire ATO is in danger of collapse and capture.
We are all discounting Strelkov's reports as if the loss of 300 NG per week wouldn't be a disaster for Kiev if it were true. - 10 June, 2014 15:27
"Because it is absolutely and categorically impossible for the USA to strike Russia in such a manner which would prevent Russia from executing a retaliatory counter-strike."
Saker, Christopher Black said
"All these actions are preparations for war. In fact, the positioning of American anti-ballistic missile batteries in Eastern Europe is in preparation for a nuclear first strike on Russia. Those batteries are deployed solely for the purpose of trying to intercept a retaliatory strike by Russian nuclear forces after a US first strike. They have no other purpose."
Someone said (perhaps you) once that the "weak point" of ballistic missiles was exactly during takeoff.
Any chance of Russian missiles lose their usefulness as a deterrent?
- 10 June, 2014 15:29
My heart is broken for Inna and the Ukraine people but to think the people who started this war have any conscience is naive.
The Military Industrial Complex, Banksters, Depopulation Faction, politicians on the take, oligarchs, etc, do not care one little bit if 5 Billion people die tomorrow. In fact, some would love for that to happen and, for them, a nuclear war is the best thing that could happen.
Do not be so naive to think Obama will not start a nuclear conflagration because he cares about people. Most of them don't care one little but. Not one little bit.
If I could, I would send food and supplies but that is not possible. - 10 June, 2014 15:31
a few words about the "nuclear option" the US has:
1) the propaganda and the outright lies the "western" media produced about syria and ukraine is what makes me most concerned about all these events.
2) if they are able to tell such enormerous bullshit and most people are willing to believe it, they might get confident and think about even more absurd false flags, maybe nuclear.
3) one example: the US drops a nuke on crimea, and states that it was in fact a russian nuke, one that the ukrainians kept and hid during the 1990ies, and that is somehow got into the hands of radicals, but after all, it was russia who was provoking them all along. the idea that at least a "dirty bomb" could be build out of radioactive material already in ukraine is also on the table.
they could do that trick also during a real russian invasion/peace keeping operation in the donbass.
if the us unleashes islamist-terrorism against arab countires, why not step up the game and unleash nuclear terrorism against nuclear armed russia?
4) another example, just the other way around: why not make a false flag nuclear attack against a large concentration of ukrainian troops and blame the russians? total isolation, economic decline, and the idea of a "cold war" 2.0 is in my opinion still the prefered option of the US.
the general problem is that the US is in for world domination, and they have to confront nuclear powers sooner or later. if "regime changing" is of the table, what will they do?
they might have thought about "regime changing" russia, but ukraine made that next to impossible (i am not sure if tis was intended or not seen because of their total dillusion...) - 10 June, 2014 15:41
One more thought on MAD - for it to be effective both sides must believe that the other's deterrent is capable and effective. We know that the US has been actively working on a first strike capability for 3 decades now. Not so Russia whose emphasis has been on defensive capability and maintenance of their strategic deterrent. Black thoughts.
the pessimist - 10 June, 2014 16:00
Nora said...10 June, 2014 11:41
On MOA
I mostly check the comments to see if anyone posted an interesting link. I have not seen the brian there in a while, he was one of the best sources of info there.
"I do miss Mr. Pragma though -- do you think he's here sometimes? I could swear occasionally I hear his voice... ;~)"
I don't know, maybe. He was fun to observe at MOA, especially the way he upset the gay zios there. Look for long posts in phony "broken English". ;)
Thanks for posting the Thai advert in 10 June, 2014 13:11. That was touching. :) - 10 June, 2014 16:07
Saker , We forgive you ;-)
- 10 June, 2014 16:10
Dear Saker,
Times of strife can cause injury without physical wounds. A good doctor might write his prescription in Greek:
- 10 June, 2014 16:26
The more I think about it, the more it makes sense that Putin ultimately would not want an armed, trained,battle-hardened Russian nationalist force on his Ukranian border.
Putin probably doesn't love Strelkov. - 10 June, 2014 16:27
Complete nonsense from Glazev. Ukraine is defacro bankrupt and doesnt have money to even feed the actual conscripts.
- 10 June, 2014 16:30
@Anonymous (10 June, 2014 06:25):
"They had to be ready for another color revolution at the minimum, so what was their strategy?"
It appears the Russians did indeed have contingency plans ready to go in case Uncle Scam launched another 'color revolution' in Ukraine. As best I can make out, this is it:
1.) Secure Crimea (Sebastopol)
2.) Covertly back an insurgency in Donbass to bleed Kiev dry
3.) Cut off gas to Ukraine once they go bankrupt
4.) Watch as Ukie atrocities in the Donbass and the siphoning of gas meant for Europe this coming begins to turn Europeans against Kiev in droves
5.) Watch as Washington's idiotic scheme to isolate Europe from their largest non-EU market and second largest gas supplier begins to strain the EU/NATO alliance.
Russia, you see, is playing the long game. Uncle Scam thought they would replicate the strategy they used in the Georgian War, but Putin is not playing according to their little script. Now that they've figured out he's not going to invade, Uncle Scam is probably scratching his pointy little head and wondering what the hell to do next. The longer this goes on, the bigger an embarassment it becomes for them, and they slowly start to lose control of the narrative. Not unlike what happened in Syria.
Putin ain't dumb!
-Seamus Padraig - 10 June, 2014 16:32
Christopher writes:
"Security experts in the U.S. do not agree that Russia has a credible nuclear deterrent. The story is that the Russian nuclear force is in disrepair and that the U.S. can easily destroy most of what is left. They may be wrong--but that's what seems to be the thinking by at least some officials."
LOL. Then these "experts" are most certainly wrong because such an analysis has no basis in reality whatsoever. The US has about 1800 nukes deployed (another 3500 in storage) and Russia has around 1450 (another 6000 in storage) deployed. Frankly, it sounds like they are describing the US nuclear arsenal than the Russian one. The UAS are the ones with 45 year old Minute man missiles which are rotting away in silos due to a lack of funding. There have been a few reports on the sad state of the US arsenal done in the US MSM. Russia, on the other hand, has the TOPOL which dates from the 1980s and are MOBILE platforms (which can also be mirv'd) which have been well-funded and well tested (There have been a dozen SUCCESSFUL tests this year alone) even through Russia's rough 1990s period. Russia has held more ICBM tests the past few months than they've held in more than two decades. Russia also has a replacement for TOPOL called YARS which is specifically made to counter any US ABM shield. Russia also has air and submarine launched ballistic missiles and thousands of tactical nukes.
The idea that the US can stop a counter attack when Russia has a nuclear triad with assets being dispersed in oceans around the world is a joke. NATO is still fighting tribesmen in Afghanistan with fake Kalashnikov's after 13 years and their advanced patriot system can barely shoot down scud missiles, yet we're supposed to believe that the US can simultaneous destroy all of Russia's nuclear assets at once anywhere in the world without Russia responding????!!!!
This is delusional nonsense.
Saker is right and these "security experts" are dangerous hacks. Just the idea that anyone believes they can "win" a nuclear war is the thing that makes such a war likely with catastrophic consequences. Sadly, there have always been crazy military experts, politicians and even military generals who believed this nonsense, even during the cold war. there was even a great satirical film about it made called "Dr. Strangelove." - 10 June, 2014 16:51
- Daruma Doll said...
I agree with your comment.
Two months ago, I have realized that in the next 20 years the probability of having a nuclear conflict somwhere on this planet will increase to the point where it becomes nearly impossible to avoid.
As a species we don't have the cognitive abilities needed to manage nuclear energy, nanothech and synth bio.
We are unable to solve the tragedy of the commons by preserving the biosphere of the overpopulated Earth.
We are failing at building a just and peaceful civilization.
We are collectively too stupid to change our social organization to survive.
If it was just for me I would watch all this with my customary cynicism.
But I have children... - 10 June, 2014 16:55
- Ilja Schmelzer said...
I think it would be clearly to early for Putin to decide something now.
Parashenko's real plans are yet unknown, his real power too, Novorossia has reached a lot on the border, given that now the problem is not manpower but arms there are easy ways to help a lot on the low level without causing much suspection.
What has surprised me was the claim that Avakov has made an offer for ceasefire which was accepted but not realized, some other information that some siloviki do not accept orders from Parashenko and fight their own war, sorry forgotten to safe the links, but this suggests some confusion and internal fight in the junta. Such internal fights are clearly things one has to look at, without own actions which would unify them again. - 10 June, 2014 17:04
Dear Saker -
its' your blog, you write what you want and how you want it.
Nay-sayers there will always be, so simply disregard, and let their slings and arrows not penetrate to your heart.
As for Putin's plans - who knows. But there's one military aspect you might ponder. There were military exercises close to the Ukrainian border - late March, IIRC - and then the Russian military went back to their garrisons.
I do not believe that this was just an aimless exercise. This was probably in preparation for a possible intervention, with everything now in place, secure in knowledge and material.
You know that pressing a button doesn't deliver immediate military response, there has to be a build-up.
Putin has the agreement of the Duma to intervene, and his soldiers can literally go at that famous press of a button.
Thing is, the USA know this - and they are in a quandary, because the mess now steaming in Iraq, with jihadis taking Mosul. He cannot afford, in this election year, to go on another military adventure like Libya, also because of domestic problems of his own making.
As for Poroshenko - don't forget that Putin met him at the D-Day celebrations, where he and Poroshenko also separately met the EU people like Merkel, Hollande, Cameron. We saw the photos and got the usual MSM spin - but I believe that there have been some agreements made, from allowing Poroshenko to save face to understanding that there is a red line Putin will not allow to be crossed. All this is speculation on my part, because nothing leaked to the MSM, but I refuse to believe they all only talked about the weather to each other. And notice that they are all very quiet about the Ukraine all of a sudden.
So - for us on the sidelines, there's nothing but practice the hardest virtue of them all: patience.
And pray. - 10 June, 2014 17:11
"Sergei Glazyev said that the Ukraine/US was steadily building up a large military machine that will be very hard to stop if more than six months pass. This was on MIA "Russia Today". He argued that a no-fly, no-move zone was required. The target after the Donbass is the Crimea."
I'm pro-Russian, but the Russian leadership have dug themselves into a huge hole... they're losing the information war badly... they can't even get people to care about obvious war crimes... maybe they were confident after Crimea, but the reason Russia won the Crimea information war is because they actually had a smidgen of mainstream sympathy which they are starting to lose badly. I honestly think there is a far greater chance of them losing Crimea now than if the uprising in Donbas had never happened.
Rogozin seems to keep hinting at something... he met with Tsarev... talked about liberating the journalists from Kharkov... and that he'd be back in Transnistria... but it's doubtful he would know anything Glazyev doesn't know.
I really doubt they have some master plan(especially the way Donbass has been handled thus far), but it's worth pondering how much of Ukraines military would be stuck in Donbass where they would be susceptible to a Pincer maneuver.
- 10 June, 2014 18:11
BTW, on the "Pincer movement" theory, I can't see Putin intervening just for Donbas. If he's intervening it's going to be for Karkov, Donbass, Odessa, Transnistria, and maybe a land bridge to Crimea. And if the go for all of that, it's because they have information that may cause an uprising against the new regime.
- 10 June, 2014 18:19
Every honest people reading you can see you and your friends (juan and all the others) do their best in these awful circomstances. Don't bother about stupids and hateful comments, and please, continue your job, with all your heart.
I don't think we can thank you enough for what you do.
Etienne D
A sad french - 10 June, 2014 18:30
"Anonymous said...
Complete nonsense from Glazev. Ukraine is defacro bankrupt and doesnt have money to even feed the actual conscripts."
It is a bankrupt state you need to worry about. You think Ukraine government will have control over it national guard? You think national guard will stop after Donbas? If you think so, look at ISIS in Iraq today, Do you want to be at receiving end of that?
- 10 June, 2014 19:04
"Anonymous said...
I honestly think there is a far greater chance of them losing Crimea now than if the uprising in Donbas had never happened"
No chance in hell they will 'take back' Krim. We will fight them, if needs be alone, to the point they will thing Stalingrad was a kindergarten picnic. Krim and Sevastopol never was, isn't and never will be 'ukrainian'. Know that, understand that and live with that. - 10 June, 2014 19:23
My understanding of this Strelkov post on VK (from a Yandex translation) is that they are trying to seize some tanks from an Ukrainian depot in Artemovsk.
However it did not succeed. - 10 June, 2014 19:29
Isn't a exactly a non-reaction in line with Putin and Russia's longstanding way - indeed, the single most effective one - to show the befitting measure of contempt that completely crazed ravings like the one delivered by Poroshenko in this inauguration speech of his deserve?!
Think of Saakashvili, McCain, Timoshenko and these ilk? You can't beat such gall of cosmic proportions by any recourse to arguments, at least not in the deplorable state of dominance which Western media still exert over the process of forming public opinion, globally.
While I tend to agree with you, Saker, in feeling that Putin stretches the virtue of restraint to the point of, not only the painful, but also the (somewhat) self-defeating (as he thus fails to encourage those who are on the side of the people, against the imperialists, and often feel very forlorn), this non-reaction to Poroshenko's outrages yet has the beauty of being the complete antithesis to the clownish, self-righteous and simple puerile ways Western politicians used to show reacting to the performances of one Ahmadinejad, not so long ago.
In a way, I enjoy it, though, of course, my heart too cries from the fist which will eventually not only smack, but punish and destroy all these supreme hypocrites, the traitors and the criminals.
May we all live to see the day when it finally hits.
Martin/Germany - 10 June, 2014 20:47
- Man From Atlan said...
At this stage it looks like Russia is trying to de-escalate the situation, saker http://news.antiwar.com/2014/06/09/ukraine-reports-understanding-with-russia-on-peace-plan/ with greater emphasis on the natural gas fees negotiation. The Bulgarian shut down of South Stream construction may have something to do with it as well.
On the other hand, I do agree that Putin's helping the NDF, just under the table, following the American model in Syria. - 10 June, 2014 21:32
@'Something has changed."
Yes, Russia secured the Crimea and the Donbass People's Militia began people's war for self determination. - 10 June, 2014 22:34
- Castor Filho said...
Comment redecastorphoto
Essa de embolar cérebro,estômago e coração - enlouquece - e é exatamente isto que os "ratazanas" pretendem.
Temos que vomitar esse ódio sólido,cravado de verbos fétidos,indecentes, os únicos que as toupeiras entendem e mais que nunca a gente dar de cabeça ,um mergulho na noosfera pra estudar friamente uma solução inteligente - um modo racional tão afiado que os covardes vão encher as calças toda vez que pensarem ou tocarem suas HAARPAS da morte da raça suéropr a eles.
Viu como a gente embola os departamentos, quando se arrisca sem armas de fogo e dana a gritar só com palavras?
Tem de haver um modo da gente se unir sem pensamentos de infantil revolta - a rataiada faminta de sangue e das riquezas alheias não têm tutano pra fazer menos que cagadas mundo afora; tem que haver um modo inteligente, e há, nós é que estamos combatendo insanos, enlouquecendo - temos de apelar para o que há de mais extraordinário - parar de ofendidinhos devolver insultos e no silêncio interior , confiantes enfim de que a escuridão da ratoeira há de trancá-los na sua própria e suja armadilha. Desde quando e até quando Ursos " gigantes pela própria natureza" vão se submeter e até baixar a índole a estes míseros estúpidos que só se impõem na mentira, no roubo, no crime de lesa humanidade?
FORA discursos, GRITARIA para surdos nefastos , roedores matadores da vida na Terra... E... nunca mais tenha medo de dizer o que não lhe entra no estômago...o podre tem de ter NOVO DESTINO - 11 June, 2014 20:14
Netanyahu told the Russian president that the S-300 would allow the Syrians to cover the whole North of Israel, at least all the way to Haifa, rendering important airfields unusable and endangering civil aviation as well. Putin agreed to stop the deliveries.
and putin expects world to take him seriuoisly?
putin has still not delivered s300 to iran and syria its allies jsut to please its enemy israle and usa and be in their good books!
putin is a joke. - 11 June, 2014 23:20
so what the Russian article says is that Russia was taken unprepared by al the machinations of the anglo empire while the foreign minster lavrov was running around licking the anglo enemies boots al through this time when he should have been cultivating, in my view strong relationship with all those entities who might have engaged england and usa militarily in the middle east -for which the Russian did not help in fact they took all the chance for anti- west forces to keep west occupied in the middle east.
russia took away chemical weapon from syria for what? usa is still arming the terrorists.
Iran was not given s-300 even during Putin time.
this is what i wrote way back-during Russian's delaying tactics about busher plant-just to please american enemies.
- 11 June, 2014 23:20
may 2006
Britain's "Bomber" Harris, who led the RAF Bomber Command during its mass raids on Germany in the Second World War, cut his teeth devastating Kurdish villages in Iraq in the 1920s.
The difference between NATO and Russia is simple, "Russia talk way to much, make to many empty threats, never show any political will to protect it interest and citizen aboard, uses words like " maybe, we can, but never do anything that can signal Russia is serious"
NATO and the West they act then think in other words to hell with what Russia's think ,all they do is talk.
Mr. Putin -there is not much time left. Anglosaxon pirate race like English and Americans are spreading their evil design like wild fire on this world, 2020 is too late. Russia has to prepare for coming world war 3 imposed on it by England and run by USA. Russia must ally with China and Germany to destroy England the primary seat of evil. - 11 June, 2014 23:24
quote " Kolomoysky controls YuzhMash, the famed missile construction complex in Dnepropetrovsk, and holds the secrets of the Satan ballistic missile, the most powerful Russian strategic weapon. He allegedly intends to share these secrets with the Israelis."
russia then deserves what itis goign to get.
putin is stupid. - 11 June, 2014 23:54