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Annual Forecast 2011 and Fourth Quarter 2011 Report Cards
Released on 2012-10-11 16:00 GMT
Email-ID | 2497848 |
Date | 2011-12-12 23:12:50 |
From | firstname.lastname@example.com |
To | email@example.com |
List-Name | email@example.com |
realized I never sent to the list
Obv some things may still change but this is what we should be basing the
sections of our published report card on
Annual Forecast 2011 and Fourth Quarter 2011 Report Cards
Annual Forecast 2011 Report Card
* We forecast that Russia would shift from an assertive stance to a
complex stance marked by both conciliatory and aggressive steps to
better employ a carrot and stick approach. We said this stance would
be most complex with the US which we have seen in its cooperation on
Afghanistan and approving Libya intervention versus its hardline
stance on US moves in Eastern Europe and cooperation with Syria and
Iran. We also said Russia's most productive relationship would be with
Germany which we have seen
Moscow is now secure enough to shift from its more assertive stance to one
that appears more conciliatory. This new strategy will play to all its
relationships around the world, but will be effective in moving Russia's
influence farther beyond its former Soviet sphere and into
Europe....Moscow will feel secure enough in its position to shift from a
policy of confrontation with the West to one characterized, at least in
part, by a more cooperative engagement. Russia will play a double game,
ensuring it can reap benefits from having warm relations with countries -
such as investment and economic ties - while keeping pressure on those
same countries for political reasons....The most complex relationship will
be with the United States, as many outstanding issues remain between the
two powers. However, Russia knows that the United States is still bogged
down in the Middle East and South Asia, so there is no need for a
unilaterally aggressive push on Washington...The most productive
relationship will be with Germany. Moscow and Berlin will strengthen their
ties politically, economically and financially in the new year.
* Putin would remain secure, no matter his position while elites were
shuffled and battled for positions
Whether Putin decides to run again as president or remain prime minister,
his control over Russia remains secure....Traditionally, in the lead-up to
an election, the Kremlin leader - currently Russian Prime Minister
Vladimir Putin - shakes things up by replacing key powerful figures in the
country. This time, Putin has asserted that his power over the Kremlin is
strong enough that he will not need such a reshuffling, but many in the
country's elite will still scramble to secure their positions or attempt
to gain better ones.
* The US would continue EA engagement, rebuilding with partners like
Indonesia and Vietnam, supporting greater security initiatives amongst
Japan, ROK, AUS, India, and getting more engaged in regional groupings
The United States will continue its slow re-engagement with the region,
providing an opportunity for China's neighbors to hedge against it.
Washington will support greater coordination among Japan, South Korea and
Australia (as well as India) on regional security and economic development
in Southeast Asia, increasing competition with China. The United States
will build or rebuild ties with partners like Indonesia and Vietnam and
become more active in multilateral groups, including the East Asia Summit
and the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Members of the Association of Southeast
Asian Nations will try to balance both China and the United States.
* China forecast of balancing between inflation and growth, erring on
side of inflation
While government investment now makes up the lion's share of the Chinese
economy, Beijing is walking a very difficult path between rampant
inflation and rapid economic slowing.... While Beijing is likely to
procrastinate in making any radical economic policy changes, and thus
avoid the likely short-term chaos that could entail, the longer the
leaders delay fundamental action, the worse things may be when the system
starts to unravel...Though growth may slow, STRATFOR does not anticipate
it to collapse beneath the government's target level. This will require a
tightrope walk between excessive inflation on one side and drastic slowing
on the other. China's leaders want a smooth transition to the next
generation of leaders in 2012, and do not want the economy to collapse on
their watch. They will err on the side of higher inflation, which could
exacerbate social troubles, but Beijing is betting this will remain
* China's exports recovered in 2010 from the lows of 2009, but export
growth is expected to slow in 2011
China's exports recovered in 2010 from the lows of 2009, but export growth
is expected to slow in 2011.
o Germany would use crisis to continue pushing its view on fiscal
Berlin will continue to press the rest of Europe to accept its point of
view on fiscal matters, using the ongoing economic crisis as an
opportunity to tighten the eurozone's existing economic rules and to
introduce new ones. Germany is pursuing three key initiatives: the
development of a permanent bailout and sovereign debt restructuring
mechanism (largely freeing Germany from having to bail out other eurozone
members in the future); the acceptance of tougher monitoring,
implementation and enforcement of eurozone fiscal rules; and continued
adherence to German-designed austerity measures among eurozone members.
* That German imposed austerity measures would produce antagonism, but
that there would be no meaningful break with Austerity
Berlin's assertiveness will continue to breed resentment within other
eurozone states. Those states will feel the pinch of austerity measures,
but the segments of the population being affected the most across the
board are the youth, foreigners and the construction sector. These are
segments that, despite growing violence on the streets of Europe, have
been and will continue to be ignored. Barring an unprecedented outbreak of
violence, the lack of acceptable political - and economic - alternatives
to the European Union and the shadow of economic crisis will keep Europe's
capitals from any fundamental break with Germany in 2011....Other states
may see changes in government (Spain, Portugal and Italy being prime
candidates), but leadership change will not mean policy change. Germany
would only be truly challenged if one of the large states - France, Spain
or Italy - broke with it on austerity and new rules, and there is no
indication that such a development will happen in 2011.
o And that Elites would face a loss of legitimacy on both the right and
the left
Ultimately, Germany will find resistance in Europe. This will first
manifest in the loss of legitimacy for European political elites, both
center-left and center-right. The year 2011 will bring greater electoral
success to nontraditional and nationalist parties in both local and
national elections, as well as an increase in protests and street violence
among the most disaffected segment of society, the youth
o Sudan and the South having little conflicts but no major war forecast
has stayed on track
The northern and southern Sudanese governments will maintain a heightened
military alert on the border, and small clashes are not unexpected. Minor
provocations on either side could spark a larger conflict, and while
neither side's leadership wants this to happen, Sudan will be an
especially tense place all year.
o Afghanistan forecast is broadly on track, was refined in Q3 forecast
The ISAF has neither the troop strength nor the staying power to truly
defeat the Taliban through military force alone. The success or failure of
the counterinsurgency-focused strategy therefore rests not only on the
military degradation of the Taliban, but also on the ability to compel the
Taliban to negotiate some degree of political accommodation. Some movement
toward a negotiated settlement this year is possible, and Pakistan will
try to steer Washington toward talks (in the hopes that Islamabad will be
able to influence the eventual outcome of those talks), but a
comprehensive settlement in 2011 seems unlikely at this point.
o Turkish forecast of mainly being domesticly focused in run-up to
elections and elsewhere trying to make FP more coherent, which they
spent the rest of the year post-elections trying to do.
In Turkey, 2011 is an election year, with parliamentary elections
scheduled for June. The ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) is
unlikely to lose the election overall, but the vote will highlight the
core secular-religious divide within Turkey. As it seeks to consolidate
itself at home, the AKP in 2011 will work toward a more coherent foreign
policy, trying to learn from past efforts that had unexpected results
o Niger Delta staying quiet
Extensive intra-party negotiations and backroom deals will occupy the
Nigerian government during primary season, the election campaign and after
the inauguration, all as a matter of managing power-sharing expectations
that could lead to violence. But the cash disbursed and the patronage
deployed as part of the campaign will keep most stakeholders subdued even
if their preferred candidate does not win. This means the event will not
turn into a national crisis, and the Niger Delta region is likely to
remain relatively calm this year.
o North Korea would return to quiet
it is looking like 2011 will see a return to the more managed relations
with North Korea seen a decade ago, barring a major domestic disagreement
among the North Korean elite over Kim Jong Il's succession plans.
* Venezuela would be marked by corruption and economic problems but
Chavez will not fall unless there is an outside shock
Economic decay, runaway corruption and political uncertainty will define
Venezuela in the year ahead. Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez will resort
to more creative and forceful means to expand his executive authority and
muzzle dissent, but managing threats to his hold on power will become more
difficult and more complex, especially considering Venezuela's growing
struggle to maintain steady oil production and the country's prolonged
electricity crisis. The Venezuelan government will thus become
increasingly reliant on its allies - namely China, Cuba and, to a lesser
extent, Iran and Russia - to stave off a collapse.
* Cuba will engage in serious reforms marked by immense struggle
Cuba, meanwhile, intends to lay off or reshuffle more than half a million
state workers (10 percent of the island's work force) by March 2011 while
attempting to build up a fledgling private sector to absorb the labor.
There are signs that Fidel and Raul Castro have reached a political
consensus over the reforms and are serious about easing the heavy burden
on the state out of sheer economic desperation. However, this will be a
year of immense struggle for Cuba, especially as many of the new privately
owned or cooperative businesses are expected to fail due to their lack of
resources and experience and because of a shortage of foreign capital.
* Brazil's focus on domestic policy following a very international 2010
The year 2011 will be one mostly of continuity for an emergent Brazil as
the country devotes much of its attention to internal development.
Specifically, Brazil's focus will be absorbed by problematic currency
gains, developing its pre-salt oil fields and internal security.
o We forecast that the US would keep enough forces in Iraq to block Iran
and would reach for an accommodation with Iran in order to maintain
its troops without being significantly harassed and eventually remove
The core prediction STRATFOR needs to make for the region, therefore, is
whether the United States will withdraw its forces. We do not believe a
withdrawal is likely in 2011. While a new Iranian-sponsored insurgency is
a possibility, a dramatic shift in the balance of power due to withdrawal
would be a certainty. Pressure on the United States from Saudi Arabia and
its allies in Iraq not to withdraw will be heavy, so the United States
will keep enough forces in Iraq to block Iran. STRATFOR expects this will
lead to greater instability in Iraq, but the United States will be
prepared to pay that price.... it is likely that the United States will
reach out to Iran - either the government or significant factions within
it - in order to reach some sort of accommodation guaranteeing U.S.
interests in the Persian Gulf and Iranian interests in Iraq. These talks
will likely be a continuation of secret talks held in the past, and if an
accommodation is reached, it might be informal in order to minimize
political repercussions in both countries.... That leaves one path if the
United States wants to get out of Iraq at some future point: an
accommodation (even if quiet) with Iran to ensure both U.S. and Iranian
interests. While it is not likely to be very public, we expect a
significant increase in U.S.-Iranian discussions this year toward this
o We also addressed then the effects of the Arab Spring at the end of Q2
- Palestine, Syria, Yemen, Egypt, Libya, Bahraini impact on Saudis and
US. Given that we missed the entire Arab Spring, our ME forecast
wasn't half bad. We accurately described the Mubarak-military elite in
Egypt and our forecast that there would be no Israeli-Hezbollah war
and only clashes in Gaza was correct
Egypt begins the year with the successors of ailing 82-year-old Egyptian
President Hosni Mubarak at odds over the pending transfer of power. The
various factions - both in his National Democratic Party and the army - do
not agree on who can best ensure regime stability and policy continuity
once Mubarak is no longer in a position to lead. Another complication is
that the presidential election is scheduled for September, and it is not
clear whether Mubarak will run for a sixth five-year term. While the
various elements that make up the state will be busy trying to reach a
consensus on how best to navigate the succession issue, several political
and militant forces active in Egypt will be trying to take advantage of
the historic opportunity the transition presents. While the opponents of
the regime - both those who seek change via constitutional means and those
who prefer extra-constitutional methods - are not yet organized enough,
the rifts within the government also create vulnerabilities for Egypt,
where regime change will have profound implications for the region and
In Israel, concerns remain about Hezbollah, the most serious threat
Israel faces. But Hezbollah is focused on matters in Lebanon, and Syria
has its own interests at stake, so another major Israel-Hezbollah war in
2011 is unlikely. In Gaza, on Israel's southern flank, things are not
quite as stable. Hamas has an interest in maintaining a short-term truce
with Israel, but pressure from competing Islamist movements and Israel's
ongoing efforts to prevent Hamas from strengthening will likely lead to
clashes within the year, though not to the extent seen in 2008-2009.
o We did not Identify Italy as one of the countries that would face
crisis and threaten the Eurozone system. We said the facilities built
in 2010 would be capable to handle crisis states but its clear they
had to rely mainly on ECB SMP. We also missed the extent to which the
financial crisis would spread throughout the Eurozone
In one bit of good news for the Europeans, STRATFOR projects that the
systems the Europeans built in 2010 to handle the financial crisis will
prove sufficient to manage Portugal, Belgium, Spain and Austria, the four
states facing the highest likelihood of bailouts, respectively.
o We missed the fracturing of Al-Shabab and its fall back out of
Mogadishu - though we were right that it would no be de still remains
able to field operations there
Chavez is facing the developing challenge of a potential clash of
interests among those allies. China, Cuba and Russia, for example, will
attempt to place limits on Venezuela's relationship with Iran in the
interest of managing their own affairs with the United States.
o US - Pak relationship. We just said Pakistan would push US towards
negotiations. We should seen that as negotiations started up more
(which sped up more than we thought) the overt relationship would
Some movement toward a negotiated settlement this year is possible, and
Pakistan will try to steer Washington toward talks (in the hopes that
Islamabad will be able to influence the eventual outcome of those talks),
but a comprehensive settlement in 2011 seems unlikely at this point
o China reigned in credit lines and the 2008 stimulus policy (also
creating a massive black lending economy throughout the country that
created a mini-crisis
China's primary hope for maintaining targeted growth rates is investment.
Since 2008, Beijing has relied on government spending packages and, most
important, gargantuan helpings of bank loans to drive growth. The central
government will continue these stimulus policies in 2011. Meanwhile,
Beijing will allow banks to continue high levels of lending, and the banks
appear just capable of surging credit for another year. Deposits are still
growing and outnumber loans, several major banks raised capital in 2010,
and Beijing has toughened regulatory requirements to increase capital
adequacy, reserves and bad loan provisions. Nevertheless the credit boom
cannot last much longer, and the sector is sitting on a volcano of new
non-performing loans worth at least $900 billion. Without credible reform
in lending practices, continued high levels of lending in China will
increase systemic financial risks as companies take out new loans to roll
over bad debt and invest in inefficient or speculative projects, while
adding to inflation and compounding the sector's future burdens. Though a
banking crisis may be averted in 2011, it cannot be averted for long.
o We overestimated social unrest in China coming from inflation
Inflation will rise and cause economic and socio-political problems in
2011, generating outbursts of social discontent along the lines of
previous inflationary periods, such as 2007-2008, or even, conceivably,
o We got some of the effects of the Euro crisis wrong
If anyone breaks the line on austerity, it will be the Irish and the
The year 2011 will bring...an increase in protests and street violence
among the most disaffected segment of society, the youth. Elites in power
will seek to counter this trend by drawing attention away from economic
issues and to issues such as crime, security from terrorism and
anti-immigrant rhetoric and policy.
o We also did not identify the strength of forces that would push
towards further EU integration on a fundamental level (in reaction to
fears of Eurozone breaking apart)
Quarterly Forecast Fourth Quarter 2011
MAJOR hits and misses (not all)
o Political aspects of European crisis would supersede the financial
aspects (financial solution seems to be awaiting political solution)
The political aspects of Europe's economic crisis have come to overshadow
the financial aspects.
o Underlying this quarter would be questions about retaining the current
form of the EU
The European experiment is being questioned....In this quarter, the overt
focus may be on resolving the financial aspects of the European crisis,
but underlying everything will be questions about the logic of retaining
the European Union's current structure.
o That leaders and populations would be unwilling (so far) to bear the
collective financial burden required to preserve European Union.
The leaders and populations of the 27 EU states ...will be unwilling to
bear the collective financial burden required to preserve it....
o That national interests would be pitted against both the raison d'etre
of the Eurozone and well as against the costs that would come from a
disintegration of the Eurozone
National interests rise in times of crisis and are being pitted against
the reasons for forming the union in the first place as well as the
difficulties that would be presented by rolling it back.
* Eurozone hasnt disintegrated
We do not expect a Greek default, euro dissolution or general European
catastrophe in the fourth quarter of 2011.
o The questions this quarter about retaining the current form of the EU
have focused on how to strengthen the EU, not if it should be done
away with.
But whatever fondness EU member countries have felt for the bloc is
ending. In the fourth quarter, the leaders and populations of the 27 EU
states will feel nostalgic for the past but will be unwilling to bear the
collective financial burden required to preserve it, disillusioned with
what Europe is becoming but only willing to blame others while evaluating
the options they might have if the European experiment comes to an
inglorious end.
o In the issue of national interests vs EU point vs EU dissolution, we
have seen elites in Italy, Greece and Belgium come together to pass
Brussels mandated austerity while other countries like Poland and UK
are encouraging increased EU power that would involve a loss of their
own power, and
Although institutional inertia and a fear of the unknown might drive
temporary solutions should the European Union begin to fracture, the
European experiment is being questioned. National interests rise in times
of crisis and are being pitted against the reasons for forming the union
in the first place as well as the difficulties that would be presented by
rolling it back. In this quarter, the overt focus may be on resolving the
financial aspects of the European crisis, but underlying everything will
be questions about the logic of retaining the European Union's current
structure and the simmering tension between the populations and the
economic and political elite.
o We said efforts to strengthen EFSF would continue and they have, but
it has all but been admitted as a failure and increasingly
monetization is becoming clear as the only possible solution
STRATFOR anticipates that ongoing efforts to strengthen the eurozone's
bailout fund - a precondition for any solution that would save Europe -
will continue apace in the coming quarter.
Middle East
Hits -
o The Syrian government would not fall, and that the opposition would
not be stamped out
Syria will continue struggling to stamp out protests, but neither the
fractured protest movement nor the regime has the resources to overwhelm
the other, and any dramatic shifts in the situation are unlikely this
quarter...The regime will find relief in the likelihood that Syria's
opposition will remain without meaningful foreign sponsorship through the
end of the year.
o That Saleh's faction would retain the upper hand in Yemen
Yemen will remain in political crisis this quarter as Yemeni President Ali
Abdullah Saleh and his clan continue efforts to regain their clout in the
capital and undercut the opposition. Street battles in and around the
capital between pro- and anti-regime forces can be expected, with Saleh's
faction retaining the upper hand yet still unable to quash the opposition.
o Turkey, looking at US withdrawal, will focus on vacuum in Iraq and see
rising competition with Iran
Turkey will be focused increasingly on the gap left by the United States
in Iraq and the future expansion of Iran's influence. The rising
competition between Turkey and Iran, while in its nascent stage, will
prove complicated for Turkey...Turkey will have to pay more attention to
Iraq, where a power vacuum is waiting to be filled by Iran as the United
States draws down its military presence in the fourth quarter...The next
three months will see tensions between Iran and Turkey grow quietly as
Ankara increases its efforts to counterbalance Iran in the region, though
these efforts will only be in the nascent stages this quarter. Iran,
meanwhile, will rely primarily on the shared threat of Kurdish militancy
as it tries to maintain a basis for cooperation with Turkey in light of
Ankara and Tehran's growing strategic differences.
o Iran would blend conciliatory and threatening moves, operating within
restraints, not doing anything drastic that would allow US to stay in
Iran is looking at the looming deadline for the U.S. withdrawal from Iraq
and will play a careful hand. Tehran wants to reshape regional politics as
the neighboring countries nervously watch the U.S. withdrawal, while not
acting so assertively that its actions provide justification for the
United States to remain....Tehran will want to exploit its Arab neighbors'
sense of vulnerability to reshape the region's politics while it still has
the upper hand. To this end, Iran will use a blend of conciliatory and
threatening moves in an attempt to drive the United States and its Arab
neighbors toward an accommodation on Iran's terms....Iran will have to
work within constraints, however. Though Tehran's strongest covert
capabilities are in Iraq, Iran likely will exercise restraint in this
arena to avoid giving the United States justification for a prolonged
military presence.
o Hamas will not want to do anything to risk upsetting MB gains in Egypt
Hamas, however, will be under heavy constraints this quarter and will be
careful to avoid jeopardizing the Muslim Brotherhood's political opening
in Egypt by providing the SCAF with further reason to crack down during
the election period.
Misses -
o After correctly predicting that Arab states would not feel secure with
US residual forces in Iraq, we failed to play out that they, in
coordination with US and Israel would seek to increase pressure on
Iran (Syria, sanctions, threat of war, covert activity) in order to
reset containment strategy.)
The increasingly nervous Arab states in the Persian Gulf region will not
view whatever ambiguous troop presence the United States maintains in Iraq
beyond that deadline as a sufficient deterrent against Iran. Tehran will
want to exploit its Arab neighbors' sense of vulnerability to reshape the
region's politics while it still has the upper hand. To this end, Iran
will use a blend of conciliatory and threatening moves in an attempt to
drive the United States and its Arab neighbors toward an accommodation on
Iran's terms.
o The (apparent) militarization and increasing unification of the Syrian
opposition and the increasing pressure from Arab and Western states
via diplomatic pressure, sanctions, threats of war and limited support
for the opposition - we correctly forecast opposition would not
receive meaningful support
The regime will find relief in the likelihood that Syria's opposition will
remain without meaningful foreign sponsorship through the end of the year.
o We missed what seems to be Hamas trending towards moderation (Shalit
deal, reconciliation with Fatah including possible move towards
popular resistance, rapprochment with Jordan). Might have predicted
this from predicting Hamas would not risk MB gains.
Several parties, ranging from Iran and Syria to jihadist factions
operating in the Sinai, want to create a military confrontation between
Egypt and Israel. Hamas, however, will be under heavy constraints this
quarter and will be careful to avoid jeopardizing the Muslim Brotherhood's
political opening in Egypt by providing the SCAF with further reason to
crack down during the election period.
o In looking at Iran's cover options in Levant we focused on them
precipitating an Egypt-Israeli crisi
Iran will use a blend of conciliatory and threatening moves in an attempt
to drive the United States and its Arab neighbors toward an accommodation
on Iran's terms. ...Though Tehran's strongest covert capabilities are in
Iraq, Iran likely will exercise restraint in this arena to avoid giving
the United States justification for a prolonged military presence.
Meanwhile, Iran will continue efforts to build up assets in Bahrain, but
its best chance of success is in the Levant, where Tehran likely can
exploit its existing militant proxy relationships to accelerate an already
developing Egypt-Israel crisis that would keep Israel busy and distract
from Syria's internal troubles. Despite Iran's best efforts, Several
parties, ranging from Iran and Syria to jihadist factions operating in the
Sinai, want to create a military confrontation between Egypt and Israel.
Hits -
o Russia would not be quiet on BMD plans and security plans , pressuring
all parties, but that Russia would have to wait due to econ crisis (US
and EU have still not responded).
Russia had anticipated that its recent maneuvers with Western powers -
particularly its stance against U.S. ballistic missile defense (BMD) plans
and its counterproposal to those plans - would divide the Europeans and
allow Moscow to begin pressuring Central Europe. Russia's plans on this
front were to reach a finale at a series of planned meetings with NATO in
the fourth quarter. However, these meetings have become less critical, as
larger issues have emerged - mainly the European financial crisis. It is
not that the Europeans are not concerned about Russia; rather, there is so
much tension within Europe over finances, alliances and the balance of
power on the Continent that security issues will have to wait...This does
not mean Russia will stay quiet on these issues, particularly ahead of a
series of meetings with the Europeans, NATO and the United States. Russia
will continue trying to pressure all parties involved in the BMD issue and
will reconnect with Iran to shore up its position. But Moscow knows its
attempt to split the Europeans and United States over security issues will
not be realized just yet.
o Russia would use EU econ crisis to pick up choice assets
Russia will be looking for ways to exploit the European uncertainties
through economic levers and shaping political perceptions.
o Knowing that US would increase reliance on NDN as opposed to Pakistani
supply lines, we could have highlighted that it would give Russia
increased leverage against US. We might not have been able to predict
they would threaten it but we could have highlight the increased
leverage ability.
...Washington will enhance its position by decreasing its dependence on
Pakistani supply lines.
o Kremling disfunction. Lauren said she underestimated the amount to
which Putin's return to the presidency would affect its operations
The announcement has exposed a deep rift within the Kremlin. Few within
the Russian government are upset about Putin's return to the presidency,
but they are concerned about Medvedev's future role. Many Cabinet
ministers want Medvedev to become speaker of the Russian parliament
instead of prime minister, because if he takes the premiership he will
become their direct superior. Such disagreements will occur throughout the
fourth quarter and could involve some of the most important figures and
policies in Russia, such as the Kremlin's implementation of its
modernization and privatization programs. Decisions about who will move
where will come at the end of the year and into the March election.
South Asia
o There would be an increase in tensions between US and Pakistan as
negotiations accelerated
On the surface, these talks will appear to be fruitless as all involved
parties attempt to strengthen their negotiating positions and fringe
groups try to derail the process.
o The fundamentals of these negotiations will carry the negotiations
forward, though not necessarily at a steady pace.
The seemingly chaotic talks will intensify over the next three months, but
STRATFOR believes the fundamentals of these negotiations - the United
States' strategic need to extricate its forces from Afghanistan,
Pakistan's need to remain cohesive and rebuild its influence in
Afghanistan with U.S. support to counter India and the Taliban's need to
dominate a post-war political settlement - will carry the negotiations
forward, though not necessarily at a steady pace.
o US would decrease reliance on Pakistani supply lines
Washington will enhance its position by decreasing its dependence on
Pakistani supply lines.
o Fallout from border checkpoint incident. Regardless of what happened,
Pakistan has both had to take a strong reaction and taken the
opportunity to take a strong reaction to showcase itself as anti-US
and strenghten negotiating hand.
East Asia
o China would balance between growth and inflation
Beijing will be cautious about signs of a resurgence due to ample external
liquidity and continued government-led domestic investment. Beijing likely
will be more willing to accept moderate inflation...Beijing will use
policy tools to continue fighting inflation without affecting growth
o There would be a slowdown in growth with no signs of radical policy
A slowdown will continue with no sign of radical policy changes from
Beijing, at least ahead of a major economic conference in December and
particularly in light of the worsening economic situation in Europe, which
is expected to affect China's export sector.
o Chinese help towards SMEs
Though tightened economic controls are likely to dominate the fourth
quarter, the deteriorating financial health of small- to medium-sized
enterprises will require greater policy assistance, including fiscal
spending or flexibility in adjusting monetary policy.
o (Level of) US - Myanmar re-engagement
o We said China could see direct confrontation with US over trade and
currency issues and that China could want to raise such tensions for
domestic benefit
China and the United States could have a direct confrontation over trade
disputes and currency during the fourth quarter, as the United States
might be ready to gradually build up political pressure regarding these
issues. Depending on China's domestic situation - particularly regarding
the economy and social stability - Beijing could consider it beneficial to
increase tensions with the United States to distract the public from
domestic issues.
o We did not forecast what the US (re-) engagement push would look like
and how China would respond, rather just saying the push would be
influenced by China
Relations between China and the United States will affect U.S. President
Barack Obama's attempts to strengthen relations with Washington's regional
allies during his Asia tour in November. U.S.-Chinese relations will also
color Washington's attempt to demonstrate a renewed commitment in the
Asia-Pacific region via several multilateral mechanisms including
U.S.-Japan-India trilateral talks, the East Asia Summit and the
Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum.
o Brazil would remained inwardly focused on econ issues
Brazil will remain focused on economic management this quarter. Its dual
goal of managing inflation while stimulating the local economy will
require incremental policy changes as the country reacts to shifting
projections of global growth.
o Barring external shock Chavez would not fall
Barring an outside shock like a collapse in oil prices, no major changes
to overall stability are expected in the next quarter.
o Factional violence in Gulf could erupt
There are strong indications that factional violence within the Gulf
cartel could erupt,
o Brazil could see increased tensions with China and Argentina over
tariff issues
Increased trade protections are likely. The relationships most likely to
grow tense over increased trade protections will be those with China and
o Niger Delta would be quiet, increased focus on Boko Haram (especially
political aspect)
Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan's government will continue grappling
with Boko Haram in the fourth quarter. The government will engage
dissenting politicians from the country's north who are sympathetic to the
Nigerian Islamists in negotiations, offering to trade patronage for limits
on support for Boko Haram. The government will build out and decentralize
its intelligence capability - albeit slowly - to isolate hard-line
elements of the fundamentalist sect not interested in negotiations and
maintain Joint Task Force deployments of army personnel to interdict
radical Boko Haram members......Separately, the Nigerian government will
keep funneling money to its Niger Delta amnesty program, supporting what
is effectively a welfare scheme for militants in the oil-producing region
in order to keep oil production running smoothly. The militants, from
groups such as the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta, will
comply with the government but resist any attempt to undermine their
capabilities. The Jonathan administration, too, will safeguard militant
capabilities for political leverage (though this will not be used in the
fourth quarter)
o There may be protests in DRC and Angola but neither government
meaningfully affected
The neighboring countries of Angola and the Democratic Republic of the
Congo (DRC) will hold elections of sorts this quarter: The DRC will hold a
presidential election in late November and Angola will hold a ruling party
leadership convention in December. Both instances will be opportunities
for the opposition to organize street protests aimed at destabilizing the
incumbent regimes, though such demonstrations will not meaningfully affect
either government
o Increased regional cooperation in Sahel after militants.
Regional African and foreign governments, including the United States,
will strengthen intelligence-acquisition and intelligence-sharing efforts,
focusing on the threat of terrorism from al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb
(AQIM) and Tuareg rebels largely from Algeria, Mauritania, Niger and Mali.
o Kenyan Invasion of Somalia
While AMISOM and the TFG will not conduct offensive operations against the
Somali jihadists outside Mogadishu this quarter, al Shabaab's constituent
groups will see their range of operations limited to narrow sections in
southern Somalia.
o Increased tactical capabilities and sophistication of Boko Haram.
Michael Wilson
Director of Watch Officer Group
221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
Austin, TX 78701
T: +1 512 744 4300 ex 4112
Attached Files
# | Filename | Size |
11357 | 11357_Annual Forecas.doc | 153.4KiB |


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text:
80 kilos are made per day.
8 macarons in 100 grams.
1 kilo(1000 gr.) should equal 80 macarons.
1,600 macarons per day.
I have never watched anything better while my pizza stone's heating up! Maybe I shall make some little macaron pizzette? With a smudge of dark chocolate, dried tomatoes and chili? Or color them pink?
I swear there's fragrance de macarons wafting out from my kitchen, is it fleur de noisette'?
Une touche ... oh no, help, something's burning ....
Dear Ms. P. Breakfast,
the macarons look really tasty.
Are there perchance any with bacon flavor? My padrona used to take me to the Three Dogs Bakery on Elm Street in Bethesda, for a treat every now and then (there was a Pastry Shop right there too! *dog-smile*).
With kindest wooves
and a little something for you,
your devoted friend,
Wow..Makes me want to eat the whole load full just looking at them. ;) How do you keep your mind on making them without tasting??
That macaron in the Chefs hand was awfully SMALL...it would take a dozen more to get a good taste. lol
And YES WHY AREN'T the Chefs of America learning how to make those lovely looking morsels???
Oh thank you a macaron redux! I am amazed. Love the dance and the violettes. What a great idea to go back and give it one more shot. Someone kick our chefs in the derriere and get them off to France to learn the steps. I want to taste the parfums. Scented air and eggs and magic ingredients. Ahh, Thanks for such a treat. All best, Jan
ReplyDeleteHmm. So you write , " Here the framboise lids get their beauty sleep for I think 24 hours" (I know I am not to quote you here..but um...well...did make a question in my head arise). This "rest" is when they are in dough form? I understand some people make the dough in the dome formation "rest" (or stand) so to form a skin. Yet, the others only "rest" 10 minutes. I wonder what the difference here is...must be something in the recipe?
ReplyDeleteARGH! You have forced me to order almond flour! In fact, ever the scientist, I ordered it plain AND toasted! I hope you realize how much time I am spending in the kitchen trying in vain to keep up with your posts when I should be out kil chasing rabbits!
AND I think you should start posting the photographic releases you have obtained from your "subjects" because I will be too busy baking to bail you out of jail!
MERISI there is a place in Lyon I think that makes savory macarons with foie gras etc. So you're on the right track with your tomato macs!
MAXIE ma cheri Bonjour! So nice of you to stop by even if it was for the doggie bisquits :)
CRIS intersting point..maybe the chef has giant hands but macarons do come small-medium-large.
Correct Cybel I meant to say the BAKED lids...please excuse.
Cassoulet Cafe The color of the macaron can change in the oven...why some of the cassis turned grey not violet.
Chere Jeanette be sure your almond flour is bleached I think..there is a recommended brand..Hills Farm something or other-I'll look. But macarons are VERY TRICKY to make.
Much easier to eat. :)
Regarding the almond flour:
Almond flour is something that is used every day and can be bought in the smallest grocery here in Austria. I know it is very difficult (and expensive) to find in the States.
The problem is, one cannot grind it fine enough with electric grinders or Cuisinart or the like.
There's an almond grinder available from Moulinex, a small gadget, kitchen stores like Williams Sonoma or Sur le Table used to carry them.
Here in Austria my mother and any other cook uses a tool that looks like a meat grinder that can be attached to a table.
The difference betweet "white" almond flower and the regular one is that for the first one you have to blanch the nuts and remove the skin, taking care to dry them carefully at low temperatures in the oven. It is generally not adviseable to "toast them", unless it is a recipe that specifically asks for it (the taste between the one and the other is quite pronounced), but getting the almonds really dry after blanching and skinning is of utmost importance.
yummy macarons for all to savours. As i have not gotten the chance to try Macaron from Paris or japan...i am eager to know which method they used for their macarons( french meringue Or the Italian meringue- boil sugar syrup)
Which method did this particular Chef used for this lovely macaron?


text:
A common flowering landscape plant may help control woolly apple aphids in Washington orchards.
Sweet alyssum, a low-growing ornamental, attracts a host of spiders and predatory insects. They, in turn, go after the orchard pest, according to a news release.
In Washington State University research that compared plots of apple trees with sweet alyssum to those without, the plots with the flowers had fewer aphids.
Lessando Gontijo led the research project while a doctoral student in the WSU Department of Entomology.
Upon further inspection, the researchers found a diverse population of beneficials in the alyssum plots. But were they really responsible for reduced aphid numbers?
The scientists then sprayed the flowers with protein marker and later captured insects and spiders some distance from the flower plots.
The beneficials tested positive, proving they had visited the flowers.
The work was published in the July edition of the journal Biological Control.
In the past, aphids had been controlled when growers sprayed for codling moth.
In recent years, growers have moved toward softer approaches, including the use of mating disruption.
Mating disruption involves flooding orchards with female pheromone, which confuses male codling moths and reduces their chances of finding a female with which to mate.


text:
The Department of UrologyPelvic Medicine, Incontinence & Reconstructive Surgery |
For more information, go to:
http://urology.ucla.edu |
At the Division of Pelvic Medicine, Incontinence and Reconstructive Surgery at UCLA, we provide sensitive, innovative care for a full spectrum of conditions including:
- Incontinence
- Overactive bladder
- Vaginal prolapse
- Voiding Dysfunction
- Reconstructive urological surgery
The Division of Pelvic Medicine, Incontinence and Reconstructive Surgery has been a recognized leader in developing new treatments for female urology conditions for over 28 years. Dr. Shlomo Raz pioneered many of the innovations that today are the standards of care worldwide for such conditions as vaginal and uterine prolapse, urinary incontinence, pelvic floor disorders, voiding dysfunction, and surgical reconstruction after cancer for urethral abnormalities.
Through ongoing research and continuous innovation, the division has pioneered many of the pelvic medicine treatments that today have become the standards of care worldwide. Pelvic Medicine, Incontinence and Reconstructive Surgery patients at UCLA receive the latest information on pelvic medicine disorders, as well as access to the newest treatments that evolve from our research.
Our goal is to provide compassionate, individualized care to women suffering from these conditions, restoring their quality of life as optimally as possible. Both male and female patients will have access to a full range of non-surgical, minimally invasive, surgical and alternative treatments for urinary incontinence and voiding dysfunction. In addition, we offer expert care in chronic urinary conditions such as interstitial cystitis and overactive bladder.
Provider | Specialty |
Baxter, Zachery Chad MD | Urology |
Kim, Ja-Hong MD | Urology |
Raz, Shlomo MD | Urology |
Body System Location
Kidneys and Urinary System
Age/Sex Gender
Women's Health
Men's Health
Practice Locations
UCLA Female Urology and Pelvic Medicine Clinic
924 Westwood Blvd., Ste. 520
Los Angeles, CA 90095
Frank Clark Urology Center - Santa Monica
1260 Fifteenth St., Ste. 1200
Santa Monica, CA 90404


text:
Shadow Wolf Mysteries: Bane of the Family
Return to the De la Fer estate to help the count unravel the curse that has been passed down through his family in Shadow Wolf Mysteries: Bane of the Family! Tackle this challenging Hidden Object Puzzle Adventure game and track down an all new werewolf that is wreaking havoc on the town. Can you break the curse and save the family? Take on Shadow Wolf Mysteries: Bane of the Family and find out today!
- Find a new werewolf
- Break an ancient curse
- For a more in depth experience, check out the Collector's Edition
- Get the Strategy Guide!
- Check out our Blog Walkthrough
Game System Requirements:
- OS: Windows XP/Vista/Win7/8
- CPU: 1.4 GHz
- DirectX: 9.0
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Game Manager System Requirements:
- Browser: Internet Explorer 7 or later
- Alcohol Reference
- Blood
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- Use of Tobacco
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text:
3 Free Ways To Improve Your Home
Refresh interiors with these ultra wallet-friendly tips
By Olivia Rassow
The most simple projects can renew your space and lead to an instant upgradeand some cost nothing but elbow grease.
Organize Books: Use what you have to create brand new, conversation-starting bookshelves. Sort by genre and color to make the collection pop, and stack some titles horizontally to add variety.
Swap Artwork: Hang art in a different spaces and play with placement. Let new wall color and lighting bring a fresh perspective to old favorites.
Clean Windows: Pay extra attention to windows and make them shine to welcome more natural light and highlight the texture of window treatments.
Also on ELLEDECOR.com
January Home Checklist: 5 Things To Do At Home This Month
11 Ways To Transform A Blank Wall


text:
(05-29-2011 09:33 PM)mrgonzodad Wrote: All my trade peeps are already here, except tone81, hardcount32 and PR34. Now that there are a few mods on the list we have a chance at this getting in the user submitted thread.
(05-29-2011 10:00 PM)rgf17 Wrote: quoting biglump - Rgf17 although I think he gives away more than he trades lol true that. but hey, i really dont mind. i actually enjoy it more than trading and wish i could give more.
(05-29-2011 09:38 PM)koolkellygirl Wrote: I will have to see if you have all of my homies on here, but I did see a couple missing. Favrecollector4 (hasn't been around for a while but he'll be back) and his buddy Terry-MontanaCollector1619t,both great people. Also, dannyr129, first person to befriend me here, and I have had WAy more trades with mrhurtado than I have any other person. We have probably made 20+ trades..
(05-29-2011 09:34 PM)deuce6000 Wrote: Well if they got a bad trader list might as well show who the good ones are too!


text:
Nina Shoes
Designer shoes by Nina are internationally acclaimed for their brilliant craftsmanship and effortlessly fashionable designs. For parents who value quality and timeless style, Nina Shoes for kids fit the bill every time. Sophias Style is thrilled to be carrying Nina Kids dress shoes, day shoes, sandals, and Nina boots. Whether your little girl dreams of growing up to be a style icon or if she simply needs a quality pair of go-with-everything ballerina flats, shoes by Nina are sure to be the perfect choice.
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text:
Enter to win a spa package from downtown Sarasota's L. Spa.
Is there a better month than January to treat yourself? We don't think so–and to help you out, we're giving away a package of treatments from downtown Sarasota's L.Spa, featured in our "Bring Back The Bliss" story in our January issue. Simply fill out the form below and you could win the following, worth more than $250:
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Botox/Juvederm consultation, plus 10 free units with the purchase of 20
Simply fill out the form below to enter to win! Winner will be chosen and notified on Wednesday, Jan. 30, 2013.


text:
BC random
This photo was shot on film. Taken by freshmeat_omd with a Holga 135 BC (available in our Online Shop) loaded with Kodak Color Plus 200 (35mm) film in Rome, Italy. These tags describe this photo: people, holga, and black_corner. Date: 2012. This photo can also be found in the album BC random.Please login to get more out of this site
You are currently not logged in, do so now to add comments, like articles as well as photos, submit to competitions, translate articles and gain access to unlimited photo upload! If you are not registered yet, go here to find out more about Lomography and join now! If you just want a limited account for now you can use Twitter or Facebook. We would love to have you as a member here!
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text:
"The recent weather we've had has been like no other," Clinard said. "The big quote around here this season is that Mother Nature substituted March for January this year and January for March. It's really like no other crop we've seen in the past but we think the crop size should be good. The cool weather isn't hurting anything and we expect a normal harvest through April."
In late March, Colorful Harvest LLC, Salinas, Calif., also began harvesting small volumes from its Florida acreage.
Doug Ranno, chief operating officer and managing partner, said quality looks high.
"The cold weather will mean blueberry promotions will come a little later," Ranno said March 26. "It will be a fight for volume at the beginning of the deal. Retailers need to be ready to promote during the first sign of warmer weather."
Florida growers plan to harvest a record 25 million pounds from 5,000 acres, up from the 18.5 million pounds growers harvested from 4,500 acres last season, Braswell said.
Florida normally harvests through mid- to late May.


text:
EVENT: "Weapons of World War One: A Hands-On Experience"
Learn about the development and use of machine guns and shoulder arms in the Great War while getting a chance to feel the heft and weight of the weapons in your own hands. Several examples from the education collections will be brought out for this half-day event. Museum admission required.
TIME: Saturday September 14, Noon to 3:00 p.m.
PLACE: The Pennsylvania Military Museum / 28th Infantry Division Shrine, Business Route 322; Boalsburg, PA, Centre County; three miles east of State College.
Saturday, September 14, 2013 - 12:00pm to 3:00pm


text:
For immediate release - Wednesday, June 29, 2005.
Contact Bob Brammer - 515-281-6699.
Attorney General Tom Miller and colleagues from a total of 48 states and territories are asking CardSystems, Inc., to notify consumers in their states if they are affected by a security breach that potentially compromised tens of millions of credit card accounts.
CardSystems is an Atlanta-based processor of credit card payments for banks and merchants. Reports last week indicated that hackers installed a rogue computer program that extracted data, potentially compromising as many as 22 million Visa-branded cards and 14 million MasterCard-branded cards, as well as others.
According to news reports, records on about 200,000 credit cards may have been stolen, but not birth dates or Social Security numbers.
"We constantly advise consumers to guard their personal information," Miller said. "It should go without saying that companies have a crucial duty to employ the strongest level of security when they are entrusted with people's financial information. The data breaches we've seen lately are very troubling, and they are unacceptable."
"We call upon your company to do the responsible thing and notify all affected consumers immediately," the Attorneys General wrote in a letter sent yesterday to CardSystems, Inc. The letter also asked for an explanation of how the breach occurred, how many consumers are affected in the states, what steps the company is taking to mitigate consumer injury (including efforts to notify consumers), and what plans CardSystems has to prevent recurrence of such a security breach.
Miller said his office will consider proposing state legislation next year that would require a company to notify consumers if it permitted disclosure of their non-public personal information.
In the CardSystems matter, the primary threat appeared to be the possibility of unauthorized charges on some people's accounts, and a lesser threat of identity theft.
Miller said Consumers should always follow these tips, especially in case of security lapses:
For more information on preventing identity theft, obtaining free credit reports, and other consumer tips, go to www.IowaAttorneyGeneral.org (click on "protecting consumers.")
The Federal Trade Commission's Identity Theft web site is: www.consumer.gov/idtheft/ The FTC's I.D. Theft Hotline is 1-877-ID-THEFT (877-438-4338.)
Click here for a copy of the letter sent April 28 to CardSystems by the attorneys general.
- 30 -


text:
Welcome to the Davidson College Herpetology Lab website. Here you will find the latest news, publications, and awards from the lab members, current projects and courses, outreach links for teachers and students, and other helpful resources on herpetology.
For questions or comments about work done in the lab or the website, please contact Michael Dorcas


text:
1/4 of the way to his 500 Test wicket target.
Good work Quiney too.
1/4 of the way to his 500 Test wicket target.
Good work Quiney too.
wow.....looking difficult for SA to save this
And smalishah's avatar is the most classy one by far Jan certainly echoes the sentiments of CW
Yeah we don't crap in the first world; most of us would actually have no idea what that was emanating from Ajmal's backside. Why isn't it roses and rainbows like what happens here? PEWS's retort to Ganeshran on Daemon's picture depicting Ajmal's excreta
this is why test cricket's the best ****ing thing ever
Really boring stuff this.
Parmi | #1 draft pick | Jake King is **** | Big Bash League tipping champion of the universeCome and Paint Turtle
About 9 overs left.
it'll still be a draw...
perth to decide the series
Proud Supporter of All Blacks
Re: Steyn's dismissal. Check out FDP at the non-strikers end. Literally didn't move an inch
Indians can't bowl - Where has the rumour come from as I myself and many indian friends arwe competent fast bowlers ?
With the English bid I said: Let us be brief. If you give back the Falkland Islands, which belong to us, you will get my vote. They then became sad and left
SA should keep the score board ticking. It is very easy to get out if you just keep blocking all the time
reckon siddle might be in for a rest in Perth, 30 overs each innings and the match starts in a few days
I still can't believe Faf Du Plessis was given not out for not playing a shot at the start of the day. But the jet has batted beautifully.
great reverse swing there
well played by du plessis tho.
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The Global Intelligence Files,
files released so far...
Index pages
by Date of Document
Our Partners
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The Global Intelligence Files
On Monday February 27th, 2012, WikiLeaks began publishing The Global Intelligence Files, over five million e-mails from the Texas headquartered "global intelligence" company Stratfor. The e-mails date between July 2004 and late December 2011. They reveal the inner workings of a company that fronts as an intelligence publisher, but provides confidential intelligence services to large corporations, such as Bhopal's Dow Chemical Co., Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, Raytheon and government agencies, including the US Department of Homeland Security, the US Marines and the US Defence Intelligence Agency. The emails show Stratfor's web of informers, pay-off structure, payment laundering techniques and psychological methods.
[OS] SWEDEN/EU/ECON/GV - Sweden 'won't block' pact to save euro
Released on 2012-10-11 16:00 GMT
Email-ID | 4646914 |
Date | 2011-12-09 14:40:47 |
From | email@example.com |
To | firstname.lastname@example.com |
List-Name | email@example.com |
Published: 9 Dec 11 11:21 CET | Double click on a word to get a
Updated: 9 Dec 11 14:20 CET
Online: http://www.thelocal.se/37838/20111209/
Sweden was one of four European Union member states to scupper hopes of a
27-country agreement to help strengthen the euro, but nevertheless plans
to participate in the creation of a European bailout fund.
Speaking with the TT news agency on Friday morning, Swedish prime minister
Fredrik Reinfeldt also expressed doubts about the likelihood of Sweden
agreeing to abide by the pact, which was forged by the 17 eurozone
countries, and which six other EU member states had at that time elected
to support.
"It's not that Sweden, which isn't a member of the euro, wants to tie
itself to rules which are completely tailored for the eurozone," he said.
"The whole text is written to make eurozone members submit to certain
restrictions and do certain things. A non-eurozone country can't
reasonably sign up to that."
Following an intense night of negotiations, Sweden, the UK, Hungary, and
the Czech Republic refused signal their support for a deal requiring
tighter fiscal discipline among the eurozone countries through changes to
the current EU treaty.
Hopes for a deal stumbled in part over the UK's desire to include
protections from future financial regulations that would have accompanied
the treaty changes proposed by Germany and France.
While Britain and Hungary at first refused to sign on to the deal, Sweden
and the Czech Republic had requested time to consult with their respective
parliaments before agreeing to the new pact.
As a result, the 23 remaining EU members states agreed to forge an
agreement for rules that would penalize fiscal profligacy and to increase
resources available to bailout troubled EU economies through additional
pledges to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the establishment of
a new European bailout fund.
Later on Friday morning, however, Reinfeldt received clearance from the
Riksdag's EU committee to approve the protocol changes agreed to by the
eurozone countries, meaning Sweden has no plans to stand in the way of the
Specifically, the committee approved Sweden's participation in a loan from
the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that will help support a European
bailout fund.
The committee also agreed to having Sweden support changes to the EU
treaty that allow for countries that mismanage their economies to be
punished, but stopped short of having Sweden abide by the new rules.
The question of the size of Sweden's contribution remains up for
negotiation, according to the Europaportalen.se, a Swedish news website
focusing on EU politics.
"We're not saying no. We think it's good that the eurozone countries have
come up with something in all this chaos and we're not going to close the
door on the eurozone countries as they try to put their economies in
order," EU committee vice chair Marie Granlund of the Social Democrats,
told TT.
Liberal Party (Folkpartiet) MP Carl B.Hamilton, chair of the EU committee,
was highly critical of the UK, which has refused to support the pact.
"They're splitting Europe. Great Britain has acted in an nonconstructive
way. 'Unhelpful' as they say in English," Hamilton told Europaportalen.se.
While there is no indication that Sweden plans to join the 23 other
countries which have so far agreed to abide by the new budget rules, the
possibility remains open that Sweden could join at a later date.
"We'll have to see what is actually meant by joining voluntary. We can't
have any overoptimistic hopes that we can affect politics for the whole of
Europe. But if we join, we can protect ourselves against having other
countries make decisions that could injure us," said Hamilton.
While Hamilton indicated his Liberal Party was open to Sweden eventually
joining the pact, Granlund said the Social Democrats remain opposed.
"It would conflict with what the Swedish people have said in the
referendum. It would mean an all to large involvement in the Swedish
economy," she told Europaportalen.se.
Exact details of the deal remain to be worked out in the coming months and
will be enshrined in an international agreement parallel to the EU's
current treaty.
However, the goal remains to eventually have the changes included in the
EU treaty.


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In his relentless pursuit to produce the quintessential visual art, the 42-year-old is a driven artist, motivated by his diverse creativity that pokes at him like a hunger. But this artist must also feed his family as well as his soul. So he creates, he teaches and he works for hire, always pursuing his passion — perfection in art.
"I constantly have new ideas for creating new products," McNeese said. "I'm constantly starting new pieces. I like a challenge. God gave me the ability to create things with my hands and I find pleasure in it. What I find a burden is trying to contend with normal life, because the mental state of a driven artist isn't normal.
I often tell people these inspirational ideas are a lot like a lizzard. You grab a hold of it and try to catch it, but the tail comes off in your hand. You're only left with a little bit of the truth. The lizzard goes on to grow another tail. I see it visually like that. I get an idea for a painting or a sculpture and it's like getting the tail of it — not all of it. Then there's the idea that if I ever did that one painting or one sculpture that was just perfect — then I could quit. It's not doing it good enough that keeps driving me to do it better the next time."
The Cleveland native said he prefer to do oil paintings and large sculptures, but there is little demand for such art locally, so he stays busy with an assortment of artful tasks.
"I've done portraits for hire since I was 16 — in pencil, water colors, oils — really, any medium," he said. "I want to do it all. I have a quilt going at the house. I love doing the culinary arts — anything with my hands! It's a bit obsessive. Vain repetition is the death of art. I like doing new things all the time and then challenging myself to do it faster or better or different. Before my wife and I started having children, no matter where you went to sit in our home there was something for me to pick up and make a mess with."
According to McNeese, it started decades ago when he was an adolescent growing up at his stepfamily's gas station, which was located on 25th Street at the time.
"I grew up hanging out there because I didn't really have any place to go during the summers," McNeese said. "For some reason I decided I was going to paint a couple of buildings. So at age 10 I took a little chair from the office of the old Orbit gas station and sat in front of what at that time was Merchants Bank. I worked on it off and on for about a week, painting on a canvas. The president of the bank saw it and purchased it from me for $10 dollars. I had no training, but, hey, I made money off of it! The drive was there and the money was there.
"So the next week I proceeded to set myself up in front of what was then the Cherokee restaurant. It was a locally owned family restaurant where Zaxbys is today. I proceeded to paint a painting of it and the owner purchased it from me for $15. I would also do little sculptural maquettes (pronounced ma-ket) of Greek and Romanesque styled sculptures and would occasionally sell them to truckers who came through to purchase their diesel."
After entering high school McNeese became that rare student to actually sell pottery and paintings through Burger Gallery that was in Cleveland. "Dale Dotson sold many pieces for me," he said.
The soft spoken artist credits his artistic nature to both sides of his birth family, saying, "All of this is based on the fact that my real father, Chester McNeese, was a local artist. He did paintings on vans and motorcycle tanks, but he also did carvings. They were very Gatlinburg-looking — the old man with the beard, carved into the wood. I wasn't extremely connected with him. I was much more connected to my stepfather, Will.
"From my mother's side I have several relatives that were awesome artists. My uncle Bob painted when he was young and ended up becoming a draftsman for the forest service. He was a great painter but back then there was no money in it and he got a real job to support his wife and kids."
McNeese has managed to blend both worlds by creating a business that compliments his talents and hints at his fixation, The Eager Beader, a rare art store that presents handmade pottery, custom jewelry and specialty beads. He also teaches nine different painting and pottery classes in his shop for people of all ages. Most of his classes, however, consist of home-schooled students.
"I had a six-year-old who produced his first sterling silver piece by hand," McNeese said. "You're not going to find too many places that inable young ones to produce silver pieces."
Married eight years, McNeese and his wife, Beth, have three talented children of their own, all possessing the ability to draw and love to draw, according to their father.
"The three year old in particular is drawing some pretty interesting stuff," he said.
McNeese said his jewelry-making techniques came from working at Epperson's Custom Jewelers in Cleveland when he was in his early 20s. Even then the gifted youth was seeking ways to perfect his craft. As proof he offered an amusing experience that followed him for years.
"When I was at Epperson's, Larry allowed me great freedom to play in his shop," McNeese said. "The very first jewelry carving that I did for him was a miniature carving of a golf bag as a tie tack for one of his friends. The jewelers wax is very difficult to carve. So I did a nice little drawing and had a nice little carving going. But the jewelers wax is also very difficult to get smooth. Now, I'm an obsessive coffee drinker. And I found out that if I took a drink of really hot coffee and rub the wax with my tongue — that it would be smoother. I thought, 'Wow! This is really a nice trick!'
"It took me two days to complete the carving. I got it finished. It looked good, but it still wasn't smooth enough. So I took one last big drink of coffee in my mouth and popped the whole wax carving in my mouth and was rubbing it. And guess what? I swallowed it! My very first piece and I swallowed it! Larry was going to cast it into 14 carat yellow gold. I flipped out!"
McNeese said his boss was already getting impatient because it was taking him a little longer than expected and swallowing his first carving was not going to go over very well.
"I recarved another one in two hours!" he said. "It looked just as good as the first one because I had already done it once. I took him the new carving and he said, 'Avery, this is a wonderful carving. I love it! But I don't know if I'll be able to let you do any carving for me because it took you too long.' I said, 'Actually, Larry, that one only took me about two hours. I proceeded to tell him about the hot coffee and swallowing my work, and everyone there horse laughed me for at least a year and a half!"
Although he is naturally gifted, well trained and in hot pursuit of perfection in his art, McNeese said he enjoys teaching others the joys of painting and pottery. He even taught a water color class at Cleveland State Community College for ages 8-13.
"If I had to put a style to my paintings I would have to say they are impressionistic. I like thick paint," he said. "I like to almost sculpt with the oils. Some of my paintings can get up to a quarter of an inch thick with oils. I do thin paintings as well, but I love pushing around the paint! It's almost like icing a cake."
Now that the Eager Beader, is on Facebook, McNeese confessed, "I'm getting people from outside the area, which I hadn't gotten before. With a cameo that I just put on Facebook — it's gotten over 600 views overnight! It would take me months to be able to get 600 people here to look at that one little cameo. A family from Nashville was going to their summer house in Destin, Fla., and they went out of their way just to come here and see my art, which was awesome!"
When asked how he would describe his life, McNeese took a long pause, smiled and said, "I come in and I work as much stuff as I can from 9 a.m. to 6 p.m. I deal with my classes, go home, love my kids and my wife. I wake up and do it again. My talent is God-given and I'm using it — can't ask for much more than that."


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Harvard School of Public Health is recruiting research assistants to help with a plate waste study in Chelsea and Lawrence Public Schools during the school lunch periods. This is a study to examine the impact of "Smart Lunchrooms," which use behavioral psychology to encourage students to select healthier foods.
Responsibilities of the research assistants will include recording the foods selected and consumed by students. Data collection will begin in a few weeks and last 3-4 weeks in each school district. If interested, please contact Juliana Cohen firstname.lastname@example.com and include your availability (during the hours of 9am-3:30pm, M-F), and if you are interested in working in Lawrence Public Schools (must have access to a car) and/or Chelsea public schools (accessible by public transportation). This is a paid position.


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Circa 1900
A pair of gilded bronze double-light sconces with hand-glazed ceramic backplates depicting an angelic scene set in bow-topped leaf-and-dart bezels. The ceramic convex insert signed by the French maker Sevres on the reverse.
Overall: 14" h. x 10-3/8" w. x 5-1/2" d.
Backplate: 14" h. x 6-1/4" w.
Can be UL listed for use in dry environments
2 Candelabra sockets, maximum 60 watts per socket
2" x 3" Vertical junction box recommended
1 pair total available.
On display at our 28th Street showroom.


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True Fear: Forsaken Souls Collector's Edition
What if everything you knew about your life, everything your family ever told you, turned out to be a lie? A strange midnight visitor could change your life forever... Find out the truth about your past in True Fear: Forsaken Souls, a chillingly exciting Hidden Object Puzzle game!
This is a special Collector's Edition release full of exclusive extras you won't find in the standard version. As a bonus, Collector's Edition purchases count toward three stamps on your Monthly Game Club Punch Card!
The Collector's Edition includes:
- Uncover more secrets in the bonus game
- Downloadable soundtracks and screen-savers
- Gorgeous wallpapers and concept art
- Integrated strategy guide
Game System Requirements:
- OS: Windows XP/Windows Vista/Windows 7/Windows 8
- CPU: 1.2 GHz
- DirectX: 9.0
- Hard Drive: 1703 MB
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True Fear: Forsaken Souls Collector's Edition
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True Fear: Forsaken Souls Collector's Edition
I'm Giving This Game 5 Stars For The Edgy Attempt Of Fear!
I beta tested this game a while back and one of the comments I made then was that the plot was demented, but the content, especially the introduction trailer, looked too fake. I suggested that many gamers, including myself, loved this genre of game and were definitely wanting content that was over the edge. Personally, I would love to play a hidden object game that scares me, I want something realistic, something apocalyptic, scare me if you can! A few things were changed. I feel as though this game, much like Ravenhurst, has attempted to take the game just to the edge, to the fringe, but not quite over the line in an attempt to see what the reactions might be. For that I applaud, but, the graphics in the Dark Falls Asylum are poor, yet the main character, Holly is very lifelike, again maybe this is an attempt to dilute the fringe, maybe I'm just reading between the lines too much. The story is about two sisters and the paths they chose after their mothers death, Holly too young at the time to understand, hasn't heard from her sister since she disappeared without a trace, 10 years ago. A messenger delivers a letter to Holly in the middle of the night asking her to meet her at the Dark Falls Asylum. The Asylum has been abandoned for years...or has it? The feeling of being watched sends shivers down your spine, is it your imagination? Do vampires and zombies exist? Had the Asylum being using patients for some twisted experiments or are they simply ghosts or a manifestation of pure evil? This game doesn't have the bells and whistles some of the CE contain today, but it does make up for it with a suspenseful plot that will dangle a carrot in front of you urging you onward to find out who Dahlia is. There are 15 statues to collect and you can read a short bio on each individual you collect. The hidden object scenes are interactive list finds that have several zoom in areas with even more items available. There aren't a lot of mini games and some might be disappointed with the simplicity of them, mostly jigsaw puzzles or completing a picture with several different shaped pieces. There are wallpapers, deleted scenes, HO, puzzles, bonus game, and some pretty fantastic music available in this CE. If you can get past the graphics I think you will enjoy playing this game.
March 1, 2014
I'm SCARED to Play this One!!
WOW!! This one fellow gamers comes with a warning for a good reason! If you like psychological thrillers, scary or thriller movies that you can be a part of this game is for you. There are not an over abundance of bells and whistle but the realistic visual and sound effects that put you right there throughout, are well worth overlooking no morphing objects or cute pets to dress up, etc!
You're story (intro) starts out seeing a newspaper story of an asylum where there are mysterious deaths and disappearances . Then you see security cameras in black and white of dead bodies laying around and some of them being dragged off by who knows who or what?! All of a sudden you wake up and realize that it was all a nightmare but there is a knocking at the door in the middle of the night. You look through your peep hole and see a delivery man with a letter. You must sign for it for it is registered. It's from your sister whom you haven't heard from in 10 years. She apologizes for the no contact but tells you it's time for you to know the truth about your mother and YOU. You must come to the enclosed address ASAP! So off you go and arrive at a very boarded up and eerie Dark Falls Asylum. Thus the story and the game play really begin.
Let me say that the voice overs, music ( which is just like what you hear in horror movie backgrounds) just add to the amazingly realistic sound effects!
There is a journal throughout that compiles the story and what to do and a transporting map for the active areas.
You also get achievements and collect figurines of people whose story you will find out about in the bonus play.
I didn't see a strategy guide folks but the hint button is a creepy old doll that belonged to your sister you find.
If you like what you've read or your interest is now peaked I strongly recommend giving at least the demo a try! Then if there is another Collector's Edition you've been meaning to buy but haven't yet, take advantage of the great special this weekend.
I do stress that this is NOT a family game or for any people that are squeamish or faint at heart but if that doesn't sound like you and you feel like participating to something like being in an Alfred Hitchcock movie this is a must. I love it!
March 1, 2014
FOR ADULTS ONLY...and they aren't joking!!
With that being said, I believe this game is worth every penny!! I played the entire game and by far, it's the best one I have played in quite some time from Big Fish. I loved it!! Not only will it have you jumping back from the screen, but you will be constantly wondering what's going to happen next. I wish all games were this exciting. I will certainly be looking for more games from these guys!!
March 1, 2014
True Fear was AMAZING!!
This has to be one of the best games I have ever played. It not only kept me on the edge of my seat but I am actually excited for the fall to see what the next chapters hold.
Hidden object games unless they have different objectives of search don't really hold my interest. I finished this game as well as the bonus in less than a day. Couldn't wait to see what was going to happen next. Even had me creeped out a bit. lol
Congrats to all who worked on it. Fabulous game!!
March 5, 2014
Do not play this game at night.....in the dark.....
Especially the first 5 minutes or so of it. Seriously, I nearly jumped out of bed. The fear factor is very real and draws you in almost immediately. Try to get in the front door, even I felt wary and edgy and like do I really want to do this?
The scenario is your sister who hasn't seen you in 10 years suddenly sends an express letter in the middle of the night and off you go to find her. Why? Because you just had a horrible nightmare about the place the letter came from? Hmmmm. Or could it be something else?
Needless to say the graphics are quite eerie - not for the young at heart or anyone afraid of ghosts - yes, the I hear whispers and cobwebs and those kind of ghosts.
I won't get into the schematics and whatnots about the game - there are loads of others who can and do a brilliant job of that. I will tell you it grabbed me in the first 10 mins - I was not only ready to hit the buy button, after I turned on the lights, but I didn't want to stop long enough to hit the buy button - dilemma. The hour was up way too quickly.
Oh, the HOGs were brilliant. Your little hint button recharged quickly but you really don't want to use it/her too often - creepy. You have a interactive jump map and a journal. You also collect figures - large, small, hidden, out in the open, trophies, all related to the story and tell the story. Are you one of those?
This is not for the feint of heart - I've never given much thought to those red "beware of this game" words but truly, beware. This Glam-ma says definitely, yes, yes, but play with the lights on or during the daytime - whuahaha.
March 1, 2014
What an intense shocker!
This game is one of the most intense games I've ever played. It drew me in withing minutes and I couldn't stop playing to the very end.
The story in short: you receive a mysterious letter from your missing sister who you thought to be dead and you leave immediately to find her. You have to visit several locations to reveal a dark and disturbing family secret. You find diary entries and audio tapes that help you assemble the mosaic.
During your travels, you repeatedly encounter a creepy, mysterious girl that resembles the girl from the movie "The Ring". You don't know, is she a zombie, is she just savaged, is she evil or mentally disturbed. All this you don't know, yet you have to witness this extremely disturbing creature roaming around the houses. She is really threatening, but she never attacks or otherwise addresses you, so it remains in the dark what she wants from you.
The atmosphere is so dense, that girl so terrifying, sound and graphics are absolutely fantastic to emphasize the frightening story that my goose-bumps wouldn't disappear to the very end of the game. There are several jumping moments and the warning for the weak at heart never seemed so appropriate.
The riddles are a good mix of well-known and new ideas, the HO scenes are slightly interactive and contain in-scene hiding places.
The Collector's Edition contains the obligatory bonus chapter, several achievements, and a collection of figurines which reveal even more of the story. There's a "behind the scenes" section with deleted scenes and a small demonstration how computer games are realised from the first pencil sketch to the finished scene, which was very fascinating and informative.
And finally, they gave us some information on the next two parts. Yes, "True Fear" is a trilogy and I can't wait to play the other games, too.
This game is a must-have for people who appreciate a good frightened shiver every now and then.
March 17, 2014
Something For the Grown Ups!
Wow, just the other day I was complaining about all the light fairy tale themes and finally, a game that most certainly sends chills down my spine. It has been a while since we have visited an asylum; my dark side was beginning to get restless. Our story is definitely creepy and there is a mystery to be solved.
Just when you thought you knew everything about your life, you receive a pretty ominous note from a long lost twin sister that you haven?t seen or heard from in over a decade. Your adventure begins with a strange visitor at your door who has a message that beckons you to an asylum.
The game is dark and I don?t just mean the general theme of the story. Graphics, artwork along with lighting or rather lack of lighting all are bleak and rather depressing. Although you can adjust the brightness, it really doesn?t do much on screen. Regardless of the rather outdated look, the combination of visuals and sounds definitely have an chilling effect that is enhanced by ominous music in the background, very minimal voice-over and some rather creepy animations and special effects.
There are three levels of difficulty and I just wish that the expert mode would have included no black bar hints, making it even more challenging to play. Main menu offers extras which include puzzles and mini-games. Game mechanics include a journal that will hold your clues and outline the story as it unfolds. There is a map that will allow you to travel and if desired, will indicate areas that are in need of action. There is a rather disgusting looking doll, a female chucky who works as a hint button. It is too bad the developers did not add any sound effects to her, she just sits there silently and when needed, you get lights that show direction. Game-play is standard HOPA with adventure play and interesting hidden object scenes that are interactive and not as easy as you think. I enjoyed some mini-games, nothing overly challenging but some were time consuming. There are collectables, figurines that will outline the story for you and a list of achievements to earn.
Sadly, this game doesn?t really qualify as a Collectors? Edition. It could have been much more complex and entertaining had the developers just added a bit more savvy into the overall visuals and game mechanics. Nevertheless, it is the chilling story and the odd zombie-like creature that passes the screens definitely has my full attention. I love the demo and am really looking forward to playing this game tonight. As I understand, the bonus section will add more to the story which is clever. There is a sale and I will definitely take advantage of it. For fans of scary movies, horror fiction and the macabre, I don?t think you will be disappointed. KUDOS to the developers, they definitely get an A for effort.
I do understand that the game lacks in technicality, but I still give it 5 stars becaus I love the story and it has been a while since I felt creeped out.
March 1, 2014
This is what I consider to be an absolute perfect game, the kind I love most!
The fear factor is certainly there, and the soundtrack really exemplifies this. The graphics are awesome and the voiceovers--which I usually mute--are cool and add to the experience. There is an interactive map which makes traveling throughout the game much easier as with any game.
I've waited for a top quality "scary" game like this for a long time and I"m so happy this one is here.
After I finished the trial game I clicked "BUY" faster than I ever have in all the years I've been with Big Fish games.
March 1, 2014
Goes bump in the night
This is a must to play with the sound on for a change. It's scary and gave me the creeps. The only complaint I have is that it's so dark with the scenery. I felt after a while I needed to wear gloves through the game play. But that being said, it is really good. The games are easy which appeals to me because I usually skip the games because I lose patience. I felt like I was the character which is unusual for me. This is different and something that we have all needed - A CHANGE from the usual stuff that has been coming out for quite a while now.
March 1, 2014
Incredible Game!
=======> GET THE COLLECTORS EDITION OF THIS GAME!! you won't be disappointed <==========
This game definitely has it all- it is a -=>MUST<=- buy. You'd be doing yourself a disservice by not purchasing the collectors edition. Absolutely worth the money.
This is NOT kid/family friendly. This is absolutely an ADULT game. The warning is there for a good reason.
Wow! A stunning game. This is one of the best games I have had the pleasure of playing! A must play, hands down.
All is not what it seems, the twists and turns in this game will leave you guessing, "but... what about..." Its exciting, enthralling and very intoxicating. I played this game with no breaks and I didn't want to take a break!
The story in this game really grabs you and holds on tight leaving you wanting to know more behind all the mysteriousness you're experiencing. You really feel like you are in the game; which this is the crux of the game. You not only feel like you are making the decisions for yourself but you really feel connected to the character as "yourself".
The graphics are just amazing, very vivid and crisp (in a dark, dank, depressing atmosphere), the ambiance is creepy, grim yet compelling. The developers did a fantastic job on this.
The sounds just made the game come together; making my heart race and my mind think. The creepy "hint" button doll could have made some noise to add to the "creep" factor but I understand the devs were more focused on the game than a hint button.
The game took me about 6.5 hours to complete fully- quite a bit of back and forth but the hint button will tell you where to go if you get a little tripped up on the all the back and forth and to and fro.
The HOGs were very nicely done. The scenes really kept you involved and not wanting to hit the "hint" button at all. you get the feeling of wanting to find the objects on your own. I hardly ever hit the hint button not because the objects were easy to find but because the game pulls you in so much that you really don't want the help.
The mini games were varied; puzzles, putting together pictures. They weren't the highlight of the game tho. They were interesting, not too hard at all but not extremely easy either.
The ending is like, "omg! really?!" leaving the entirety of the game open. I'm not going to spoil it for you because the ending is what really puts the game into perspective.
========> The only way to play this game is by the Collectors Edition. You'd be doing yourself a horrible disservice waiting for or even buying the Standard Edition. <========
March 12, 2014
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A Safer Campus: A Guidebook for Prevention and Response to Sexual and Intimate Partner Violence and Stalking for Ohio Campuses
Publication Types
Publish Date:
August 2010
The Governor's Office for Women's Initiative and Outreach, Ohio Board of Regents and the Ohio Department of Health convened a statewide Task Force broadly representing Ohio's campus communities and partners to indentify best practices to prevent and respond to sexual and intimate partner violence and stalking. This Guidebook identifies key best practices for short and long term action recommendations for colleges and universities to implement in four focused areas: Preparedness, Prevention, Response and Recovery.
Ohio Board of Regents
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"I bought this shoe about a year and a half ago at a New Balance store. It is very comfortable and has led me to prefer working out either barefoot or in a minimal shoe like this minimus. My only problem is with the durability. About 1 year after purchase I noticed that the front of the sole was starting to peel off the rest of the shoe. This process just got worse and worse and now the front half of the sole just hangs off the shoe. I assume this effect is due to the use of some subpar bonding agent that failed to keep the shoe and sole together. Needless to say, while I have loved this pair of shoes, I will be replacing them with another brand of minimalist shoe in the hope that they will be more durable."
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Yes, I recommend this product.
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"These shoes are the bomb! I have been wearing them for over a year running, hiking, yard work and walking the dog. So far they are holding together and I am pretty hard on footwear. I dislocated my ankle about 15 years ago and had problems running with stability and cushion shoes. I tried the more natural way with these shoes and my ankle now gives me minimal trouble. Great shoe!"
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By Cathy Erway
[Cathy's approach to early-season grilling. (I had to look up "appetant," by the way.) – mb]
If your social calendar looks anything like mine, this weekend marks the debut of many appetent backyard owners' barbecues. Seriously, don't all shout at once! (Or do, but please stagger your times and locations conveniently, because I can't wait to get to them all.)
So we all know and love to grill peppers, eggplant and corn on the cob, but since it's still spring, our choices for local produce are more limited. Fear not, locavore: almost anything can be grilled. And better yet, slicked with a sweet-and-spicy sauce first. Just because spring and early summer vegetables don't all have the vibrancy and flavor characteristic of those later on, with a little torching and some tweaking, they really shine. Here are some of my favorite, less-expected things to throw down. Continue reading