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Fourth Quarter Forecast 2011
Released on 2012-10-16 17:00 GMT
Email-ID | 5056226 |
Date | 2011-10-10 16:37:20 |
From | email@example.com |
To | firstname.lastname@example.com |
List-Name | email@example.com |
Fourth Quarter Forecast 2011
October 10, 2011 | 1202 GMT
Fourth Quarter Forecast 2011
Related Links
* Annual Forecast 2011
* 2010 Annual Forecast Report Card
* Third Quarter Forecast 2011
Table of Contents
* Introduction
* Global Trends
* South Asia
* Middle East
* Eurasia
* East Asia
* Latin America
* Sub-Saharan Africa
The [IMG] political aspects of Europe's economic crisis have come to
overshadow the financial aspects. Although institutional inertia and a
fear of the unknown might drive temporary solutions should the European
Union begin to fracture, the European experiment is being questioned.
National interests rise in times of crisis and are being pitted against
the reasons for forming the union in the first place as well as the
difficulties that would be presented by rolling it back. In this
quarter, the overt focus may be on resolving the financial aspects of
the European crisis, but underlying everything will be questions about
the logic of retaining the European Union's current structure and the
simmering tension between the populations and the economic and political
Europe's crisis ripples beyond the Continent. In Russia, concern over
the potential for a European contagion in part shaped Prime Minister
Vladimir Putin's decision to run for president again. Russia will be
looking for ways to exploit the European uncertainties through economic
levers and shaping political perceptions. In East Asia, China too is
watching the European crisis and measuring the implications for
Beijing's own economic recovery plans. A weakened Europe and a sustained
global economic slump could push China's internal economic balance to
the limits.
As the excitement of the Arab Spring continues to fade in the Middle
East, the shape of regional power continues to evolve. Iran is looking
at the looming deadline for the U.S. withdrawal from Iraq and will play
a careful hand. [IMG] Tehran wants to reshape regional politics as the
neighboring countries nervously watch the U.S. withdrawal, while not
acting so assertively that its actions provide justification for the
United States to remain. At the same time, [IMG] Turkey will be focused
increasingly on the gap left by the United States in Iraq and the future
expansion of Iran's influence. The rising competition between Turkey and
Iran, while in its nascent stage, will prove complicated for Turkey, as
Ankara's early actions in the eastern Mediterranean test its relations
with the United States.
Global Trends
Global Trend: Europe's Crisis
European Union member states are not as committed to the bloc as they
once were. The states that joined the union before 2000 did so with the
understanding that the union was created to contain German ambitions.
The states that joined after 2000 did so with the understanding that
the union would protect them from Russian domination. All members
joined with the additional understanding that the union would grant
them wealth. However, all those understandings are now in breach.
In the past year, Germany has steadily rewired European structures to
its advantage. The German-dominated bailout fund (modifications to
which are expected to take effect in October) now operates largely
independent of EU authority or scrutiny. A reawakening Germany has
discovered that it has many reasons to [IMG] collaborate with a
strengthening Russia: energy, security and limiting U.S. influence
throughout Eurasia. And overall, the European economy is stagnant at
best. German-imposed austerity measures are slowing economies further
and might have already created a recession for Europe as a whole. One
of the few European states still showing signs of economic activity is
STRATFOR anticipates that [IMG] ongoing efforts to strengthen the
eurozone's bailout fund - a precondition for any solution that would
save Europe - will continue apace in the coming quarter. We do not
expect a Greek default, euro dissolution or general European
catastrophe in the fourth quarter of 2011. But whatever fondness EU
member countries have felt for the bloc is ending. In the fourth
quarter, the leaders and populations of the 27 EU states will feel
nostalgic for the past but will be unwilling to bear the collective
financial burden required to preserve it, disillusioned with what
Europe is becoming but only willing to blame others while evaluating
the options they might have if the European experiment comes to an
inglorious end.
Several weak points in the European system could trigger a series of
events that would accelerate that end. The following are the most
likely scenarios:
* The Italian government and Belgian caretaker government are both in
precarious positions. An Italian government collapse likely would
overwhelm the fail-safes the Europeans have thus far established.
Belgium does not even have a government in any practical sense,
making it impossible for Brussels to negotiate - much less implement
- austerity measures. A financial crash in Belgium would bring the
financial crisis into the Northern European core.
* Political miscalculations or opposition to more bailouts in Germany
could limit financial support to Greece at a key moment. Greece is
living on bailout funds and will default on its debt should the
payout schedule be more than moderately interrupted. Such
interruption would [IMG] trigger a financial cascade, starting in
Greece and ending in the Western European banks before EU bailout
programs are expanded sufficiently to handle the fallout.
* European banks suffer from a number of deep maladies that include
exposure to U.S. subprime real estate, Europe's homegrown real
estate troubles, overcrediting both within and beyond the eurozone
and decades of being used as slush funds by various governments.
Just as a sovereign debt meltdown could trigger a banking
catastrophe, a banking meltdown would trigger a sovereign debt
catastrophe. Addressing this issue will be a primary topic of the
Oct. 17-18 EU heads of government summit.
Global Trend: Iran and Iraq
The next three months will be critical for Iran. By the end of the
quarter, the United States will face a deadline to complete its troop
withdrawal from Iraq. The increasingly nervous Arab states in the
Persian Gulf region will not view whatever ambiguous troop presence the
United States maintains in Iraq beyond that deadline as a sufficient
deterrent against Iran. Tehran will want to exploit its Arab neighbors'
sense of vulnerability to reshape the region's politics while it still
has the upper hand. To this end, Iran will use a blend of conciliatory
and threatening moves in an attempt to drive the United States and its
Arab neighbors toward an accommodation on Iran's terms.
Iran will have to work within constraints, however. Though Tehran's
strongest covert capabilities are in Iraq, Iran likely will exercise
restraint in this arena to avoid giving the United States justification
for a prolonged military presence. Meanwhile, Iran will continue
efforts to build up assets in Bahrain, but its best chance of success
is in the Levant, where Tehran likely can exploit its existing militant
proxy relationships to accelerate an already developing Egypt-Israel
crisis that would keep Israel busy and distract from Syria's internal
troubles. Despite Iran's best efforts, we do not anticipate that Tehran
will be able to force a fundamental political realignment in the region
as early as this quarter, though it will emerge stronger.
Global Trend: Russia's Resurgence
In its dealings with the United States, Iran and Europe, Russia will
continue its dual foreign policy in which it appears more conciliatory
while retaining its ability to be aggressive. This dual track is meant
to continue rolling back U.S. influence in Eurasia while solidifying
Moscow's position.
Russia had anticipated that its recent maneuvers with Western powers -
particularly its [IMG] stance against U.S. ballistic missile defense
(BMD) plans and its counterproposal to those plans - would divide the
Europeans and allow Moscow to begin pressuring Central Europe. Russia's
plans on this front were to reach a finale at a series of planned
meetings with NATO in the fourth quarter. However, these meetings have
become less critical, as larger issues have emerged - mainly the
European financial crisis. It is not that the Europeans are not
concerned about Russia; rather, there is so much tension within Europe
over finances, alliances and the balance of power on the Continent that
security issues will have to wait.
This does not mean Russia will stay quiet on these issues, particularly
ahead of a series of meetings with the Europeans, NATO and the United
States. Russia will continue trying to pressure all parties involved in
the BMD issue and will reconnect with Iran to shore up its position.
But Moscow knows its attempt to split the Europeans and United States
over security issues will not be realized just yet.
With security issues sidelined, Russia will try to take advantage of
the Europeans' crises in the fourth quarter. Russia is already
purchasing some choice assets in Europe, and it is watching to see if
it can further its advantage - possibly by dumping large amounts of
cash into Europe to help curb the crisis (or so Moscow would want the
Europeans to believe). This will not occur before the end of the year,
but Russia will spend the fourth quarter formulating its options.
Fourth Quarter Forecast 2011
South Asia
Table of Contents
* Introduction
* Global Trends
* South Asia
* Middle East
* Eurasia
* East Asia
* Latin America
* Sub-Saharan Africa
U.S.-Taliban negotiations mediated by Pakistan will advance in the
fourth quarter. On the surface, these talks will appear to be fruitless
as all involved parties attempt to strengthen their negotiating
positions and fringe groups try to derail the process. Militants
affiliated with Pakistan and the Afghan Taliban will launch attacks with
the aim of prompting a quicker U.S. exit from Afghanistan, while the
United States will try to force Pakistan into action in facilitating and
enforcing an agreement with the Taliban that would place strong
constraints on transnational jihadist activity in the region, or risk a
future in which the United States shifts its support away from Pakistan.
Though the United States faces many disadvantages in these negotiations,
Washington will enhance its position by decreasing its dependence on
Pakistani supply lines.
The seemingly chaotic talks will intensify over the next three months,
but STRATFOR believes the fundamentals of these negotiations - the
United States' strategic need to extricate its forces from Afghanistan,
Pakistan's need to remain cohesive and rebuild its influence in
Afghanistan with U.S. support to counter India and the Taliban's need to
dominate a post-war political settlement - will carry the negotiations
forward, though not necessarily at a steady pace.
Fourth Quarter Forecast 2011
Middle East
Table of Contents
* Introduction
* Global Trends
* South Asia
* Middle East
* Eurasia
* East Asia
* Latin America
* Sub-Saharan Africa
Egypt-Israel-Palestinian Territories
Egyptians are scheduled to go to the polls for the country's first
post-Mubarak parliamentary elections in November, and Egypt will be
consumed with this issue for the entire fourth quarter. The Supreme
Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) has been steadily laying the
groundwork for an election that will not allow any one political
grouping to dominate the others, and it will seek to ensure that the
divisions within the opposition will translate into a government that
remains weak.
While it is busy managing the electoral process, the SCAF will also
place its focus on the militant environment in the Palestinian
territories and the Sinai Peninsula. A crisis involving militants from
these areas and Israel would increase popular opposition to military
rule in Egypt, and would place pressure on the Egyptian military regime
to fundamentally alter its relationship with Israel. Several parties,
ranging from Iran and Syria to jihadist factions operating in the Sinai,
want to create a military confrontation between Egypt and Israel. Hamas,
however, will be under heavy constraints this quarter and will be
careful to avoid jeopardizing the Muslim Brotherhood's political opening
in Egypt by providing the SCAF with further reason to crack down during
the election period.
Syria will continue struggling to stamp out protests, but neither the
fractured protest movement nor the regime has the resources to overwhelm
the other, and any dramatic shifts in the situation are unlikely this
quarter. The Syrian regime will devote increasing attention to rooting
out dissent among the upper ranks of the Alawite-dominated military;
this dynamic will need to be watched closely for signs of serious
fracturing within the regime. The regime will find relief in the
likelihood that Syria's opposition will remain without meaningful
foreign sponsorship through the end of the year.
Turkey will continue encountering obstacles as it tries to push its
regional re-emergence beyond rhetoric, especially in the eastern
Mediterranean. More important, Turkey will have to pay more attention to
Iraq, where a power vacuum is waiting to be filled by Iran as the United
States draws down its military presence in the fourth quarter.
The next three months will see tensions between Iran and Turkey grow
quietly as Ankara increases its efforts to counterbalance Iran in the
region, though these efforts will only be in the nascent stages this
quarter. Iran, meanwhile, will rely primarily on the shared threat of
Kurdish militancy as it tries to maintain a basis for cooperation with
Turkey in light of Ankara and Tehran's growing strategic differences.
Turkish-Israeli relations are unlikely to improve in the coming months
as Turkey tries to use the deterioration of its ties with Israel to
enhance its regional credibility. Turkey will not be able to count on
the United States' full support as it becomes more assertive in the
eastern Mediterranean, yet given Washington's needs in the region
(especially regarding Iran and, in the longer term, Russia), the United
States will eventually make its relationship with Ankara a higher
Yemen will remain in political crisis this quarter as Yemeni President
Ali Abdullah Saleh and his clan continue efforts to regain their clout
in the capital and undercut the opposition. Street battles in and around
the capital between pro- and anti-regime forces can be expected, with
[IMG] Saleh's faction retaining the upper hand yet still unable to quash
the opposition.
Friction among the various factions competing for control over Libya
will increase in the fourth quarter, as the loose alliance of
anti-Gadhafi militias seeks to eliminate the regime loyalists' final
strongholds. STRATFOR does not foresee a drawn out insurgency by
pro-Gadhafi forces, but even if the National Transitional Council (NTC)
declares the country's liberation in the fourth quarter - an act the NTC
has said is a precondition to any formation of a transitional government
- the resulting political wrangling will leave the country without a
unified leadership that can move Libya forward toward elections.
Fourth Quarter Forecast 2011
Former Soviet Union
Table of Contents
* Introduction
* Global Trends
* South Asia
* Middle East
* Eurasia
* East Asia
* Latin America
* Sub-Saharan Africa
The announcement that Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin will run for
president in March 2012 will lead to many shifts in the next three
STRATFOR said recently that Putin would only return to the presidency if
there was a need for the Kremlin to be seen as stronger and more
assertive on the global stage. Clearly Russia believes that current and
upcoming events - the eurozone crisis, which is destabilizing most of
Europe, and stagnant negotiations with the United States and NATO over
security issues - will require a more assertive Kremlin (or at least the
perception of one). The former Soviet states, Europe, and the United
States will begin [IMG] considering the consequences of Putin's return
to Russia's top post, though this will not lead to a dramatic shift in
relations with Moscow until 2012.
The most immediate effects of Putin's decision to return to the
presidency will be felt inside Russia and the Kremlin in the fourth
quarter. Putin's candidacy was announced at the United Russia Conference
in a bid to settle any dispute and shift focus away from Putin's tandem
with current Russian President Dmitri Medvedev ahead of legislative
elections scheduled for December. The announcement was meant to
strengthen support for and confidence in the Kremlin, Putin and United
Russia ahead of the elections. Now the Kremlin will focus on
consolidating wins for United Russia and Putin's umbrella political
movement, the All-Russia Popular Front.
However, the announcement has exposed a deep rift within the Kremlin.
Few within the Russian government are upset about Putin's return to the
presidency, but they are concerned about Medvedev's future role. Many
Cabinet ministers want Medvedev to become speaker of the Russian
parliament instead of prime minister, because if he takes the
premiership he will become their direct superior. Such disagreements
will occur throughout the fourth quarter and could involve some of the
most important figures and policies in Russia, such as the Kremlin's
implementation of its modernization and privatization programs.
Decisions about who will move where will come at the end of the year and
into the March election.
Fourth Quarter Forecast 2011
East Asia
Table of Contents
* Introduction
* Global Trends
* South Asia
* Middle East
* Eurasia
* East Asia
* Latin America
* Sub-Saharan Africa
China's Economy
China will see a temporary easing of inflationary pressure, though such
easing will remain slow in translating to households. Beijing will be
cautious about signs of a resurgence due to ample external liquidity and
continued government-led domestic investment. Beijing likely will be
more willing to accept moderate inflation given the issues it is facing:
* A slowdown will continue with no sign of radical policy changes from
Beijing, at least ahead of a major economic conference in December
and particularly in light of the worsening economic situation in
Europe, which is expected to affect China's export sector.
* Beijing will use policy tools to continue fighting inflation without
affecting growth further. Depending upon the state of growth, a
chance for a policy change could occur in December to pave the way
for a smooth transition in 2012.
* Though tightened economic controls are likely to dominate the fourth
quarter, the deteriorating financial health of small- to
medium-sized enterprises will require greater policy assistance,
including fiscal spending or flexibility in adjusting monetary
* Beijing will also clamp down on media and ideological expression in
order to suppress unrest or the airing of local grievances, but this
means there is a greater chance that protests could be mishandled,
which would also create concerns for stability.
U.S.-Chinese Relations
China and the United States could have a direct confrontation over trade
disputes and currency during the fourth quarter, as the United States
might be ready to gradually build up political pressure regarding these
issues. Depending on China's domestic situation - particularly regarding
the economy and social stability - Beijing could consider it beneficial
to increase tensions with the United States to distract the public from
domestic issues.
Relations between China and the United States will affect U.S. President
Barack Obama's attempts to strengthen relations with Washington's
regional allies during his Asia tour in November. U.S.-Chinese relations
will also color Washington's attempt to demonstrate a renewed commitment
in the Asia-Pacific region via several multilateral mechanisms including
U.S.-Japan-India trilateral talks, the East Asia Summit and the
Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum.
South China Sea Tensions
Tensions in the South China Sea will be the main regional security issue
in the next quarter. Claimant countries and outside players likely will
accelerate moves to draw greater international attention to the ongoing
maritime disputes. China will increase its diplomatic efforts to contain
the issue; these efforts could include economic benefits and political
pressure. China's steps will depend on the United States' moves in the
next quarter, though as the [IMG] disputes in the South China Sea grow
more complicated, miscalculations could lead to unexpected consequences
(possibly even involving military action).
Fourth Quarter Forecast 2011
Latin America
Table of Contents
* Introduction
* Global Trends
* South Asia
* Middle East
* Eurasia
* East Asia
* Latin America
* Sub-Saharan Africa
Venezuela's Economy and Chavez's Health
While the status of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez's health remains a
serious concern and the most critical of state secrets in Venezuela, the
regime does not appear to be in a rush to prepare for Chavez's imminent
departure. Elections have been set for October 2012, giving the regime
time to prepare for a transition of power, if one is forthcoming. This
next quarter will be dominated by the implementation of major economic
reforms that include the Law of Fair Costs and Prices and the
nationalization of the gold industry. Chavez will also be occupied with
mediating competition within the inner circle elite. Protests by groups
spanning the political spectrum have become more common throughout the
country and are expected to continue growing. Barring an outside shock
like a collapse in oil prices, [IMG] no major changes to overall
stability are expected in the next quarter.
Brazil's Economy
Brazil will remain focused on economic management this quarter. Its dual
goal of managing inflation while stimulating the local economy will
require incremental policy changes as the country reacts to shifting
projections of global growth. Increased trade protections are likely.
The relationships most likely to grow tense over increased trade
protections will be those with China and Argentina.
Mexico's Cartels
Mexican drug cartels continue fragmenting violently, spreading
volatility throughout the country. There are strong indications that
factional violence within the Gulf cartel could erupt, which would lead
security conditions in Tamaulipas, Veracruz and Nuevo Leon states to
deteriorate in the near future. Fighting between the Gulf cartel and Los
Zetas will intensify in Mexico's northeastern states. Relative calm in
the northwest, particularly in Sonora and Baja California del Norte
states, will continue in the fourth quarter as the Sinaloa Federation
exerts near-complete control over the region. As many as seven different
factions and organizations are battling for control over transportation
corridors in the central, south-central and Pacific coast regions.
Jalisco, Nayarit, Guerrero, Colima, Michoacan, Oaxaca and Sinaloa states
will be particularly vulnerable in the next quarter.
Fourth Quarter Forecast 2011
Sub-Saharan Africa
Table of Contents
* Introduction
* Global Trends
* South Asia
* Middle East
* Eurasia
* East Asia
* Latin America
* Sub-Saharan Africa
The Conflict in Somalia
The African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) will expand by 3,000
soldiers, bringing its total force level to 12,000. The incoming
peacekeepers, who will come from Djibouti and Sierra Leone, will be
deployed to Mogadishu early this quarter to reinforce the current forces
drawn from Uganda and Burundi. These additional peacekeepers will enable
AMISOM to consolidate control of Mogadishu this quarter, giving
Somalia's Transitional Federal Government (TFG) a secure space to work
on governance and delivering public services. [IMG] Al Shabaab will
remain divided and unlikely to reunify even loosely or surrender to the
TFG. While AMISOM and the TFG will not conduct offensive operations
against the Somali jihadists outside Mogadishu this quarter, al
Shabaab's constituent groups will see their range of operations limited
to narrow sections in southern Somalia.
Nigeria's Militants
Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan's government will continue
grappling with Boko Haram in the fourth quarter. The government will
engage dissenting politicians from the country's north who are
sympathetic to the Nigerian Islamists in negotiations, offering to trade
patronage for limits on support for Boko Haram. The government will
build out and decentralize its intelligence capability - albeit slowly -
to isolate hard-line elements of the fundamentalist sect not interested
in negotiations and maintain Joint Task Force deployments of army
personnel to interdict radical Boko Haram members.
Separately, the Nigerian government will keep funneling money to its
Niger Delta amnesty program, supporting what is effectively a welfare
scheme for militants in the oil-producing region in order to keep oil
production running smoothly. The militants, from groups such as the
Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta, will comply with the
government but resist any attempt to undermine their capabilities. The
Jonathan administration, too, will safeguard militant capabilities for
political leverage (though this will not be used in the fourth quarter).
Angola and the Democratic Republic of the Congo
The neighboring countries of Angola and the Democratic Republic of the
Congo (DRC) will hold elections of sorts this quarter: The DRC will hold
a presidential election in late November and Angola will hold a ruling
party leadership convention in December. Both instances will be
opportunities for the opposition to organize street protests aimed at
destabilizing the incumbent regimes, though such demonstrations will not
meaningfully affect either government.
Both governments could use the elections as an opportunity to harbor
militia or military forces to destabilize each other. Angola is not
likely to have its armed forces intervene during the DRC elections, but
its relations with DRC President Joseph Kabila's government are cooler
than they were in 2006, when Angola prepared its Cabinda-based units to
occupy Kinshasa to guarantee Kabila's election. For its part, Kinshasa
will not actively harbor anti-Luanda militias, though it will continue
ignoring migrations across its shared border by Angolans and Congolese
involved in smuggling and illegal mining activities.
Security in the Sahel
As some militants (and their weapons) return to the Sahel subregion of
West Africa from the conflict in Libya, they will find they have little
room to maneuver. Regional African and foreign governments, including
the United States, will strengthen intelligence-acquisition and
intelligence-sharing efforts, focusing on the threat of terrorism from
al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and Tuareg rebels largely from
Algeria, Mauritania, Niger and Mali. AQIM fighters and hostile Tuareg
elements will not have political space, nor freedom from intelligence
agencies and military forces, to consolidate their forces from the
dispersed camps they maintain throughout the Sahel. This means
constraints will be in place to limit an increase in militant activities
in the region.
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From Westwood to McCartney
British fashion has an international reputation for being eccentric, thought provoking and boldly innovative, and British designers and fashion houses are renowned worldwide for their cutting edge styles.
If you want to know who's who in the world of British fashion, then take a look at this section.
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The pioneer of the punk look, the amazing Vivienne Westwood is now part of the international fashion elite and has become something of a national treasure. Her designs are immediately recognisable for their immaculate cut, eccentric design and voluminous use of fabric, which is frequently her trademark tartan.


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Goode turned himself into police after the two men were involved in an altercation on March 8, 2007, in which Goode gunned Devine down in front of Club Amnesia in Gunnison.
"He was killed instantly there at the scene," said then Bolivar County Coroner Ted Ray. "According to the victim's family, there was an argument in front of Club Amnesia. Allegedly, he turned his back to the shooter and the shooter shot him. It appeared to be a shot in the leg, the chest and the head."
According to a Bolivar County Sheriff's Department report, Goode possibly fled the scene with three other black males in a purple Caprice with a Massachusetts tag after shooting Devine.
His sentence was not known as of presstime.


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The Bradley County Imagination Library program will benefit from an Amazon donation to the Governor's Books from Birth Foundation.
Amazon's $25,000 donation is being divided among the Tennessee counties that have distribution centers.
Locally, $6,225 will go to the program, according to coordinator Jaynese Waddell.
In Bradley County, the program is run through the local United Way.
"We value literacy. We see the impact Imagination Library can have," Waddel said.
Waddell said the Governor's Books from Birth Foundation had applied for a grant from Amazon for the donation.
The Governor's Books from Birth Foundation was formed by Gov. Phil Bredesen to make the program available to every county in Tennessee. The foundation now pays half of the cost, while the local charities overseeing the program cover the rest.
Waddell said the local United Way writes grants and accepts donations to pay for their portion of the books.
The program is open to children birth to age 5. The child receives an age appropriate book each month.
"So its a potential of 60 books if you get in on it when you are born," Waddell said. "Tennessee is the only state in the Union that has a program in every single county."
A child can be registered for the free program anytime before their fifth birthday.
There are 2,700 children in the program in Bradley County.
"According to the 2010 census, we're a little under 6,000 kids potentially that are in that birth to 5 age range," Waddell said.
Imagination Library was originally started by Dolly Parton.
"Dolly Parton actually started Imagination Library in her hometown of Sevierville," Waddell said. "Dolly did it because she saw the effect illiteracy had on her family. In fact, her own father never learned how to read, and she saw how detrimental that was to his success."
Each county keeps up with children and addresses through a database provided through the Dolly Parton Foundation.
Waddell said Parton's foundation has also negotiated a discount with certain publishing companies to get the books at a lower rate.
Book are delivered directly from the publisher to the child. In cases where an addresses changes, the nonprofit overseeing the local program will pick up the books and make sure they get to the children.
To enroll a child in the program, visit http://www.unitedwaybc.com or contact Waddell at 479-2020.


text:
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text:
Letters to the Editor - Nov. 9, 2012
Letters from Don Bowie, Roy Wilson, Clayton Carter, Scott Gibson, Karen O'Neill, Gloria Lutz, Ken Dollinger
Nov 9, 2012 | 28 Comments
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Should people/parties compromise their principles to obtain more votes/power. Or, should principles have a higher quality? Republicans could vote against all immigration reform and pick up maximum Hispanic votes. Does that work for you?
It is interesting how many Democrats desire that the Republican Party change.
Please stop the divisive rhetoric. Seriously, just give it a rest. Your guy won. What more do you want? You don't need to spike the football in the face of the republicans. You're a better man than that. Be gracious in victory and show some class.
This is a sad time for this country and the Monday morning quarterbacking is exhausting. Someone said that the reason we can't get good people to run for office is because they don't want themselves and their families drug the mud. I commend Romney and Ryan for their battle. We need to regroup, pick ourselves up and figure out how we're going to make it through four more years.
I would not endorse your thoughts. I have no problem with the difference of opinion, I just don't subscribe to it. I certainly wouldn't let the difference of opinion get in the way of professional services.
I do agree that there is a need for most (perhaps all) politicians to make a better effort to pick it up a notch in representing the best for our citizens. Thank you for your comments.
A 'representative' politician? That species went extinct long ago!
A little research will show that most members of Congress (and the federal government in general) are not in D.C. to represent their constituents -- and a large percentage will eventually emerge as members of another elite group -- the 1%ers.
For example, our own Senator Wyden has done quite well financially -- his position is his cash flow, not his paycheck -- and his primary residence is in -- New York? I kinda' like the guy, but shouldn't our so-called 'representative' at least live among us when possible?
To pretend, as some do, that only the 'other party' will be screwing the public at every turn is ignoring half of the abuse! Wake up!
I was very surprised to see these angry, divisive political rants start showing up in the paper. Would never have guessed it.
Kona, I respectfully disagree. I wouldn't go see him as a doctor. Not to try punish him in any way. Heck everyone is entitled to their own politics. What would stop me is the feeling that his political beliefs seem, in my opinion, to include disdain and disrespect for those who differ from him. That would make me very uncomfortable being his patient.
Fair enough .... I'll have to think about that. It is certainly in a person's interest not to work with someone they feel "uncomfortable", especially as a patient. I still appreciate a difference of opinion if it is well thought. I have trouble with forceful opinions that have a very shallow base.
The idea of discussing political persuasions with an attending physician has never entered my mind, but, to each their own, I suppose.
The idea of discussing political persuasions with an attending physician has never entered my mind, but, to each their own, I suppose.
Like a lot of other things, it happens. Doesn't make me uncomfortable. I like knowing where a couple of my docs stand on social AND political issues. I am proud when they take a stand and/or speak out. Informed peaceful discussions are great.
Yes, yes they are.
As for opening a free clinic, my policy for years has been that I will see any patient referred to me regardless of ability to pay. If they cannot pay, I will see them for free, regardless of status as immigrant or native-born. I cannot see all patients in need of care, but since I get most patients by referral, I have made it a policy to deny service to no one referred to me.
I plead guilty to Monday morning quarterbacking, not intending to spike the football, but to give my own opinion on what would help us regain the type of Republican party I knew growing up when I voted for Gerald Ford. If Republicans feel that the current trends in the party fit their values, by all means vote accordingly. Demographics suggest that will not be a winning approach, but I understand the importance of standing on one's principles. I would like to see a more adaptable party such as we saw under Reagan, Bush Sr, Ford, and yes, even Nixon. But those days may be gone. I leave it to Republicans to choose.
There are voices in the Republican Party saying much the same as what I said in my letter. I do not see them as being divisive, and I do not intend to inflame partisan passions. But I do think Republicans are in a more difficult position than Democrats right now, and I will be interested to see what course they chart. Compromise is not a dirty word, and giving some ground will not turn Republicans into Democrats. I think it's time for some give and take.
It will be difficult in the future as rapidly expanding minority races vote their pocket books and spurn immigration controls. Notice President Obama did not follow through on his pledges to enhance immigration policy. Smart move on his part. Politicians do what they need to do for votes.
I consider myself a very conservative Republican and it truly broke my heart to see President Obama win another term. It wouldn't have mattered what someone wrote on the Wednesday morning after the election, my wounds were smarting such that about anything would have offended me.
Although we don't agree on everything I most definitely agree with you that some compromise and a spirit of working together between our two parties would be a very good thing.
I hope the second Obama term goes well for us all and your fears are not realized. But, as I say, time will tell.
P.S. A soft answer turneth away wrath. Proverbs 15:1 That Solomon was a smart guy. Horrible philanderer, but a smart guy.
As a school board member, what is your take on PERS? Have you followed it for the last couple of decades? Any opinion? There is another current NewsRegister article about it now.
I think it is time for the legislature to be more serious on this. I have to admit to being discouraged because we may be in a legal bind. But, unless what I have been told is inaccurate, I am convinced that the economics are so dire that changes will have to be made. So I am open to advocating for significant reform. But first I need the people doing the research to provide me with better data than I have been given so far. I was disappointed that at the OSBA meeting they could not even provide a graph of where the costs of PERS was going in the next few years.
No News Register article until I have more facts and reliable figures to support proposals for a solution. Plus, the ideas floating around will need to be tested by legal minds to see if they can navigate safely through the courts, which is very uncertain at present. The increase in PERS this year will cost the McMinnville School District about $2 million. This is a roadblock in the way of bringing down our inflated class sizes. Our current and growing obligations to retirees is a burden on our teachers and hampers our ability to give our kids the best we can provide.
Should some promise's not be broken, PERS will go the way of the twinkie. I could be wrong, but I doubt it.
Michael Tubbs Sr.
Grand Ronde, Oregon
Constitutionally Limited Government
Fiscal Responsible
Free Market Principles
You, being a doctor should open your business for free, to the general public, and set the example of what good will is. However, at this time, your still a good capitalist 1%er, part of Mitt Romney's 53% that pay taxes.
The Democrats only did one thing better, then the Republicans this go around. This should have been a vote based on principles and direction of the country. Do we want to be a socialist state, like many European countries who are unable to operate without loans from Germany? Or, do we want to be like America?
What the Obama campaign and National Democrat Committee did, was they elevated Obama… from an average politician, to something of popularity, attractiveness, a symbol of the in-crowd for younger voters.
Proof: Ask the average registered Democrat, why they are a democrat. There answer, is always something opposite of the Democrat Party platform. While the Democrats supply money to and receive money from Planned Parenthood, who encourages young women to seek out abortions (as young as 15). You can call that a lie, but you can also go to www.FEC.gov, and track campaign contributions.
Sure, they'll say it's the rich people's fault, because people are great at parroting things they have heard. Let's analyze that using the Federal Budget.
The Federal Government receives around $4 Trillion in all tax revenues. The rich paying the majority of that.
Yet, our Federal Government has made promises to spend $5.4 Trillion.
You being in the medical field. The Affordable Care Act will cause even more massive debt, because… medical expenses, medical care, can not be budgeted from a government perspective.
Ask the Department of Justice how much medical expenditure has cost us over the past 10 years. The numbers are not the same, because treatment is never the same.
As for the Latino Community, the Democrats can continue to lie about our party platform. While your party of choice has decided to market itself to peoples race and gender… instead of the person.
I'm part of a group, who literally do not care about peoples race. Our message is to the individual… White, Black, Hispanic, Asian, man, women, young, middle age, or senior. If you want your own economical freedom.
If you are perfectly capable of making adult decisions, without government interjection.
If you know what is best for your family.
If you believe the governments job is to protect you, not harm you (physically, financially). Then we are the party for you.
I have a right to life, liberty and pursuit of happiness, but there is no guarantee of equal results.
As for the remainder of your argument, Republicans are welcome to continue trying to convince Americans they have the right vision. I expect it will be an uphill climb.
Oh, by the way, right now I am required by a law signed by President Reagan to provide services for free to people with serious illness regardless of whether I get paid for it. You say the ACA will cause more debt. Well, right now I am providing free care by government mandate, increasing my debt to income ratio. Does such a mandate fit within your definition of Free Market Principles?
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Four thousand fed by a miracle. (1-10) Christ cautions against the Pharisees and Herodians. (11-21) A blind man healed. (22-26) Peter's testimony to Christ. (27-33) Christ must be followed. (34-38)
Verses 1-10 Our Lord Jesus encouraged the meanest to come to him for life and grace. Christ knows and considers our frames. The bounty of Christ is always ready; to show that, he repeated this miracle. His favours are renewed, as our wants and necessities are. And those need not fear want, who have Christ to live upon by faith, and do so with thanksgiving.
Verses 11-21 Obstinate unbelief will have something to say, though ever so unreasonable. Christ refused to answer their demand. If they will not be convinced, they shall not. Alas! what cause we have to lament for those around us, who destroy themselves and others by their perverse and obstinate unbelief, and enmity to the gospel! When we forget the works of God, and distrust him, we should chide ourselves severely, as Christ here reproves his disciples. How is it that we so often mistake his meaning, disregard his warnings, and distrust his providence?
Verses 22-26 Here is a blind man brought to Christ by his friends. Therein appeared the faith of those that brought him. If those who are spiritually blind, do not pray for themselves, yet their friends and relations should pray for them, that Christ would be pleased to touch them. The cure was wrought gradually, which was not usual in our Lord's miracles. Christ showed in what method those commonly are healed by his grace, who by nature are spiritually blind. At first, their knowledge is confused; but, like the light of the morning, it shines more and more to the perfect day, and then they see all things clearly. Slighting Christ's favours is forfeiting them; and he will make those who do so know the worth of privileges by the want of them.
Verses 27-33 These things are written, that we may believe that Jesus is the Christ, the Son of God. These miracles of our Lord assure us that he was not conquered, but a Conqueror. Now the disciples are convinced that Jesus is the Christ; they may bear to hear of his sufferings, of which Christ here begins to give them notice. He sees that amiss in what we say and do, of which we ourselves are not aware, and knows what manner of spirit we are of, when we ourselves do not. The wisdom of man is folly, when it pretends to limit the Divine counsels. Peter did not rightly understand the nature of Christ's kingdom.
Verses 34-38 Frequent notice is taken of the great flocking there was to Christ for help in various cases. All are concerned to know this, if they expect him to heal their souls. They must not indulge the ease of the body. As the happiness of heaven with Christ, is enough to make up for the loss of life itself for him, so the gain of all the world in sin, will not make up for the ruin of the soul by sin. And there is a day coming, when the cause of Christ will appear as glorious, as some now think it mean and contemptible. May we think of that season, and view every earthly object as we shall do at that great day.
Mark 8:1-26 . FOUR THOUSAND MIRACULOUSLY FED--A SIGN FROM HEAVEN SOUGHT AND REFUSED--THE LEAVEN OF THE PHARISEES AND SADDUCEES--A BLIND MAN AT BETHSAIDA RESTORED TO SIGHT. ( = Matthew 15:32-16:12').
This section of miscellaneous matter evidently follows the preceding one in point of time, as will be seen by observing how it is introduced by Matthew.
Feeding of the Four Thousand ( Mark 8:1-9 ).
1. In those days the multitude being very great, &c.
2. I have compassion on the multitude--an expression of that deep emotion in the Redeemer's heart which always preceded some remarkable interposition for relief. (See Matthew 14:14 , 20:34 , 1:41 , Luke 7:13 ; also Matthew 9:36 , before the mission of the Twelve; compare Judges 2:18 , 10:16 ).
because they have now been with me--in constant attendance.
three days, and have nothing to eat:
3. And if I send them away fasting to their own houses, they will faint by the way--In their eagerness they seem not to have thought of the need of provisions for such a length of time; but the Lord thought of it. In Matthew ( Matthew 15:32 ) it is, "I will not send them away fasting"--or rather, "To send them away fasting I am unwilling."
4. From whence can a man satisfy these men with bread here in the wilderness?--Though the question here is the same as when He fed the five thousand, they evidently now meant no more by it than that they had not the means of feeding the multitude; modestly leaving the Lord to decide what was to be done. And this will the more appear from His not now trying them, as before, by saying, "They need not depart, give ye them to eat"; but simply asking what they had, and then giving His directions.
5. And he asked them, How many loaves have ye? And they said, Seven--It was important in this case, as in the former, that the precise number of the loaves should be brought out. Thus also does the distinctness of the two miracles appear.
9. And they that had eaten were about four thousand: and he sent them away--Had not our Lord distinctly referred, in this very chapter and in two successive sentences, to the feeding of the five thousand and of the four thousand as two distinct miracles, many critics would have insisted that they were but two different representations of one and the same miracle, as they do of the two expulsions of the buyers and sellers from the temple, at the beginning and end of our Lord's ministry. But even in spite of what our Lord says, it is painful to find such men as NEANDER endeavoring to identify the two miracles. The localities, though both on the eastern side of the lake, were different; the time was different; the preceding and following circumstances were different; the period during which the people continued fasting was different--in the one case not even one entire day, in the other three days; the number fed was different--five thousand in the one case, in the other four thousand; the number of the loaves was different--five in the one case, in the other seven; the number of the fishes in the one case is definitely stated by all the four Evangelists--two; in the other case both give them indefinitely--"a few small fishes"; in the one case the multitude were commanded to sit down "upon the green grass"; in the other "on the ground"; in the one case the number of the baskets taken up filled with the fragments was twelve, in the other seven; but more than all, perhaps, because apparently quite incidental, in the one case the name given to the kind of baskets used is the same in all the four narratives--the cophinus case the name given to the kind of baskets used, while it is the same in both the narratives, is quite different--the spuris, a basket large enough to hold a man's body, for Paul was let down in one of these from the wall of Damascus ( Acts 9:25 ). It might be added, that in the one case the people, in a frenzy of enthusiasm, would have taken Him by force to make Him a king; in the other case no such excitement is recorded. In view of these things, who could have believed that these were one and the same miracle, even if the Lord Himself had not expressly distinguished them?
Sign from Heaven Sought ( Mark 8:10-13 ).
10. And straightway he entered into a ship--"into the ship," or "embarked."
with his disciples, and came into the parts of Dalmanutha--In Matthew ( Matthew 15:39 ) it is "the coasts of Magdala." Magdala and Dalmanutha were both on the western shore of the lake, and probably not far apart. From the former the surname "Magdalene" was probably taken, to denote the residence of Mary Magdalene. Dalmanutha may have been a village, but it cannot now be identified with certainty.
11. seeking of him a sign from heaven, tempting him--not in the least desiring evidence for their conviction, but hoping to entrap Him. The first part of the answer is given in Matthew alone ( Matthew 16:2 Matthew 16:3 ): "He answered and said unto them, When it is evening, ye say, It will be fair weather; for the sky is red. And in the morning, It will be foul weather to-day: for the sky is red and lowering [sullen, gloomy]. Hypocrites! ye can discern the face of the sky; but can ye not discern the signs of the times?" The same simplicity of purpose and careful observation of the symptoms of approaching events which they showed in common things would enable them to "discern the signs of the times"--or rather "seasons," to which the prophets pointed for the manifestation of the Messiah. The scepter had departed from Judah; Daniel's seventy weeks were expiring, &c.; and many other significant indications of the close of the old economy, and preparations for a freer and more comprehensive one, might have been discerned. But all was lost upon them.
12. And he sighed deeply in his spirit--The language is very strong. These glimpses into the interior of the Redeemer's heart, in which our Evangelist abounds, are more precious than rubies. The state of the Pharisaic heart, which prompted this desire for a fresh sign, went to His very soul.
and saith, Why doth this generation--"this wicked and adulterous generation" ( Matthew 16:4 ).
seek after a sign?--when they have had such abundant evidence already.
There shall no sign be given unto this generation--literally, "If there shall be given to this generation a sign"; a Jewish way of expressing a solemn and peremptory determination to the contrary (compare Hebrews 4:5 , Psalms 95:11 , Margin). "A generation incapable of appreciating such demonstrations shall not be gratified with them." In Matthew 16:4 He added, "but the sign of the prophet Jonas."
13. And he left them--no doubt with tokens of displeasure.
The Leaven of the Pharisees and Sadducees ( Mark 8:14-21 ).
14. Now the disciples had forgotten to take bread, neither had they in the ship with them more than one loaf--This is another example of that graphic circumstantiality which gives such a charm to this briefest of the four Gospels. The circumstance of the "one loaf" only remaining, as WEBSTER and WILKINSON remark, was more suggestive of their Master's recent miracles than the entire absence of provisions.
15. And he charged them, saying, Take heed, beware of the leaven of the Pharisees--"and of the Sadducees" ( Matthew 16:6 ).
and of the leaven of Herod--The teaching or "doctrine" ( Matthew 16:12 ) of the Pharisees and of the Sadducees was quite different, but both were equally pernicious; and the Herodians, though rather a political party, were equally envenomed against our Lord's spiritual teaching. leaven, for good or bad, is the ground of the comparison.
16. And they reasoned among themselves, saying, It is because we have no bread--But a little while ago He was tried with the obduracy of the Pharisees; now He is tried with the obtuseness of His own disciples. The nine questions following each other in rapid succession ( Mark 8:17-21 ) show how deeply He was hurt at this want of spiritual apprehension, and worse still, their low thoughts of Him, as if He would utter so solemn a warning on so petty a subject. It will be seen, however, from the very form of their conjecture, "It is because we have no bread," and our Lord's astonishment that they should not by that time have known better with what He took up His attention--that He ever left the whole care for His own temporal wants to the Twelve: that He did this so entirely, that finding they were reduced to their last loaf they felt as if unworthy of such a trust, and could not think but that the same thought was in their Lord's mind which was pressing upon their own; but that in this they were so far wrong that it hurt His feelings--sharp just in proportion to His love--that such a thought of Him should have entered their minds! Who that, like angels, "desire to look into these things" will not prize such glimpses above gold?
17. have ye your heart yet hardened?--How strong an expression to use of true-hearted disciples!
18. Having eyes, see ye not? and having ears, hear ye
and do ye not remember?
19. When I brake the five loaves among five thousand--"the five thousand."
how many baskets full of fragments took ye up? &c.
21. How is it that ye do not understand?--"do not understand that the warning I gave you could not have been prompted by any such petty consideration as the want of loaves in your scrip." Profuse as were our Lord's miracles, we see from this that they were not wrought at random, but that He carefully noted their minutest details, and desired that this should be done by those who witnessed, as doubtless by all who read the record of them. Even the different kind of baskets used at the two miraculous feedings, so carefully noted in the two narratives, are here also referred to; the one smaller, of which there were twelve, the other much larger, of which there were seven.
Blind Man at Bethsaida Restored to Sight ( Mark 8:22-26 ).
22. And he cometh to Bethsaida--Bethsaida Julias, on the northeast side of the take, whence after this He proceeded to Cæsarea Philippi ( Mark 8:27 ).
and they bring a blind man unto him, and besought him to touch
23. And he took the blind man by the hand, and led him out of the town--Of the deaf and dumb man it is merely said that "He took him aside" ( Mark 7:33 ); but this blind man He led by the hand out of the town, doing it Himself rather than employing another--great humility, exclaims BENGEL--that He might gain his confidence and raise his expectation.
and when be had spit on his eyes--the organ
and put his hands upon him, he asked him if he saw aught.
24. And he looked up, and said, I see men as trees, walking--This is one of the cases in which one edition of what is called the received text differs from another. That which is decidedly the best supported, and has also internal evidence on its side is this: "I see men; for I see [them] as trees walking"--that is, he could distinguish them from trees only by their motion; a minute mark of truth in the narrative, as ALFORD observes, describing how human objects had appeared to him during that gradual failing of sight which had ended in blindness.
25. After that he put his hands again upon his eyes, and made him look up; and he was restored, and saw every man clearly--Perhaps the one operation perfectly restored the eyes, while the other imparted immediately the faculty of using them. It is the only recorded example of a progressive cure, and it certainly illustrates similar methods in the spiritual kingdom. Of the four recorded cases of sight restored, all the patients save one either came or were brought to the Physician. In the case of the man born blind, the Physician came to the patient. So some seek and find Christ; of others He is found who seek Him not.
26. Neither go into the town, nor tell it to any in the town--Besides the usual reasons against going about "blazing the matter," retirement in this case would be salutary to himself.
Mark 8:27-38 . PETER'S NOBLE CONFESSION OF CHRIST--OUR LORD'S FIRST EXPLICIT ANNOUNCEMENT OF HIS APPROACHING SUFFERINGS, DEATH, AND RESURRECTION--HIS REBUKE OF PETER, AND WARNING TO ALL THE TWELVE. ( = Matthew 16:13-27 , Luke 9:18-26 ).


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Planner COMPLETE agenda 9-app pack
Price: $62.00
Item: ADS8400
For higher productivity, use the planner with its own system of apps
Welcome to the Circa
Planner, the innovative planner that lets you choose the way you want to put it all together. The weekly
Master Agenda
is the centerpiece of this intuitive system. It works just fine by itself. But it works even better when you add the Circa
Planner paper-based apps. The Circa
Planner COMPLETE comes with both the Master Agenda and all nine of the organizational apps:
Ideation Station
Meeting Notes
Take-With Lists
Travel Tamer
Power on with the Master Agenda
The Master Agenda features weekly and monthly calendar sheets, monthly tabs, and a perpetual calendar. All are on high-quality paper and with soft shadings of color that help you in your organizing.
Power up your Master Agenda with the apps
Embedded in the word "paper" is the word "app." Add the paper-based Circa smartPlanner apps to your Circa smartPlanner Master Agenda, and now you have a planner that's both loaded with productivity and fortified with fun. Each app helps you get organized in a different way. Place them wherever they work best for you in your Master Agenda---all are on Circa-punched paper
Weekly, monthly and perpetual calendars
"Belongs to" page for identification
Yearly calendars, 2013-2016
Monthly tab dividers with month-at-a-glance ruled page
High-quality, 100 gsm Levenger paper holds up beautifully to repeated use
Circa-punched pages for optimal movability
Translucent covers, 7 1/8W x 8 3/4H
1" black Circa discs
COMPLETE comes with all 9 paper-based apps: Contacts, Doodler, Ideation Station, Keep &Share Notes, Meeting Notes, Scheduler, Take-With Lists, To Do, and Travel Tamer
Each app pad has 25 sheets
Handy Junior size that works in all Circa Junior notebooks
Junior-size paper, 5 1/2W x 8 1/2H
Take your planner to a whole new level of customization with the Circa
Planner Master Agenda and full set of nine organizational apps.
Circa smartPlanner COMPLETE agenda 9app pack
Terrific Planning Folio!!!
I recently ordered the Master Agenda with the sampler pack of apps. I just love this thing!!! Over the years I've used a number of intelligently designed planners but this one is exceptional. Circa paper quality is superior to most I've tried. I really like the option of re-ordering pages and tucking in additional information with the apps and Circa blank sheets. I've always used full monthly calendars with week at a glance planning pages. Previously I tracked smart phone and digital schedule planning along with two or three paper planners and sticky notes on the weekly pages plus to do lists stuck in between or taped on my paper planners. Smart Planner's Master Agenda folds everything into a neat, streamlined package. I can customize this planner in so many ways that I no longer need all the systems that "sort of" worked. The one suggestion I have is to sell the multifold year at a glance as an app by itself for those of us that have the master agenda and don't need more monthly tabs. And some options for different solid colors of paper would be fabulous. Nice job Levenger!!!
April 7, 2014
Love the SmartAgenda
The SmartAgenda is the perfect complement to an electronic calendar. I have used virtually every planner system available, and the new format combined with traditional Circa flexibility suits my needs beautifully. The quality of the paper is excellent and all of the sheets are well designed for their purpose. Thank youj!!
February 25, 2014
Brought me pack to daily planning!
It has been awhile since I have used a paper pen and planner, mainly due to my company using Outlook and our phones for everything, but for some reason I missed the old paper and pen style. Every year I went out and tried something new from either DayRunner, DayTimers, or Franklin-Covey but never had much success with them - until now. I will say this much, the quality or paper that is used is top notch. I don't have to worry about the bleed through that I have had to worry about with under planning pagers, and the layout of the pages is just what I need in terms of keeping everything in order for the daily grind that I have. There are only a few quibbles that I have with the planner over all, and that is just dealing with the notes section and the colors. While I am typically a fan of the earthy tones, I just think that a gray would look better, and I would like the notes section to either have a grid or line pattern to it. I understand why they would make it unlined, but for me, I like to have some order to the chaos when it comes to my ramblings :). The additional pages that comes with the planner are helpful and a lot of my coworkers find the pads to be awesome in meetings (I am going to have to pick up more doodlers and idea station pages!) But to everyone who may buy these, just remember your coworkers! Overall, very well thought out system and I will definitely be back in the future for one next year!
February 1, 2014
2014 master agenda and apps
I had picked up a 2014 ARC planner refill at Staples, and was thoroughly bored by it. I considered several different planners before ordering Circa. I love the disc system because I helps keep my planner only as full as I want it to be, and lets me arrange it exactly for my needs. I also like that the pages and tabs had some color and style. The color is neutral enough to work for both men and women. I like several of the apps, although not all 9. I do wish Levenger would include dividers for the apps as part of the package. Overall, great product. Thanks, Levenger!
January 15, 2014
Greatly improved
Each year I go to catalog for a planner refill. Yes, I use my IPhone calendar, but still have to have a paper for day to day use. This year's product seems to be the best ever. I think I will be better equipped to keep everything and everyone in sync and in one place. I'm always looking for better tools for organization, I think this is it!
January 13, 2014
Best I Could Find
My husband and I have significantly different needs where calendars are concerned. I looked at as many planners as I could stand. I came back to Circa. Why? Because we can each set our own as we like it and then coordinate. I purchased all the "apps" but to be honest, they're not overly useful to me. The Contacts, Keep &Share and To Do seem the most versatile and useful. List might be good for a grocery shopping list. And I'd love to add the Doodler pages, but there's no room for them. Please note: If you want to add anything to your scheduler apart from what is provided in the Circa package, you will either have to remove some pages or up the size of your discs. There's little room to add. I like the Monthly tabs and placed each weekly bunch of pages behind the appropriate tab - making it easier to work in one month without having to turn back and forth from place to place. I also added my own "ribbon" place holder as you can't find your page that easily otherwise. I like to grab the ribbon and be on my current page immediately. This saves time and frustration. Levenger might want to consider such an addition, tho' they do have the page finder but it's not part of this set. We've used Circa for years and find it the best possible notebooks. Junior works well for us in most everything. It's a convenient size and still large enough for notes, etc. The weekly pages are set up a bit funky, but you'll get used to it. It might have been more intuitive if the weekdays were either upper on the page with weekends on the bottom, or if they'd somehow set it as a normal Sun-Mon week. That said, the mirroring page is wonderful for notes, tasks and misc you need to jot. My husband's has the leather cover, embossed. He LOVES it and receives complements everywhere he goes. There too, a bit more space for more pages might have been in order - but he's being more careful with what he puts in it. Yes, I would recommend this. Keep in mind, you're paying prime for this item. It's not an easy or cheap purchase. But the paper is good quality and the fact that you can alter the pages in any way that you want (a Circa joy) makes up for having to buy three or four average planners to find something you like. The only thing really missing is a pen holder. Would have been a nice add on.
December 31, 2013
Love it how about some "mom" apps
My business husband got this for me and I love the apps as I love making lists. As a suggestion, how about some additional apps, like recipe cards sorta in the format of the contacts app?
December 28, 2013
Circa smartPlanner COMPLETE agenda
Great Product .. Peers are worked will be order one for their own soon.
December 21, 2013
Switching Planners
I'm switching planners this year. Been using the Moleskine daily planner for several years, and since I need different kinds of pages depending on current activities, I thought I'd give this a try. Already use Circa stuff for projects and other stuff, so this was a no-brainer wrt what to try next. So far, between this and the "apps", I think I've got everything covered, and given the ability to put pages in any order I want, I think I've finally found something that'll work for me.
December 14, 2013
excited about this planner
I just received the complete system and have started adding my 2014 information. I love the colors they use and the flexibility to put together the planner as it works best for you. The quality of this product, as with all things Levenger, is wonderful.
December 14, 2013
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Prices and availability are subject to change from the time and date that you print this page.
2/1/2015 9:49:07 AM. For Customer Service, please call
$19.97 reg. $34.00
Solid wood transporter can transport two small cars to any playroom destination. It's also durable enough to withstand the test of time. Transport our Transportation Transporter into your home today.


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Cars > bzzzzzzz's Garage
About bzzzzzzz's Garage
My first car
my first car was a 1988 suzuki sammeri4x4 awsome jeep but then i killed it. so i bought my first chevy beretta. WoW what a car. it was a 1989 gt 2.8l v6 automatic white with red interior. i loved the car. ive bought a second beretta gt a 1990 with digital dash, fully loaded, bergendy exterior black interior. the car needed body work. i bought a third a 1991 beretta gt this one s green with grey interior. i bought if for parts.
when i got the car home to realize that the car i bought for parts is in better shape then the one im trying to fix.
Car I wish I still had
My suzuki
- Type of racing: nascar/ drag
- Driver: team force
- Car movie: cars
- Car magazine: TUNER
- Car game: need for speed (all of them)
— Profile last updated: Feb 11, 2010
Date Joined | Jan 28, 2007 |
Trophies | |
Garage Views: | 9,469 |
Challenges | W: 107 L: 105 |
Blog Posts | 0 view |
Photos | 110 photos in 3 albums |
Videos | 0 view |
Cars | 3 view |
Parts | 3 for sale |
bzzzzzzz's Groups 1 – 3 of 6
Enthusiast Groups
Beretta Central Enthusiast
We as Beretta owners, are a strange brew. We love our cars and would do anything to keep them. I want everyone to know this is intended to be a place where you can find diagrams needed advice on repair and also a place to have fun, so enjoy ask a question. but dont be a butt. or your perma-banned...
Pennsylvania, United States
Chevy Beretta Maniacs Enthusiast
This group is comprised of Chevrolet Beretta and Corsica enthusiasts. We all share a passion for your automobiles and it shows. Our member's cars are either a work of art, or a work in progress. Many of them will tell you a car is never finished, and some will settle for stock. Either was we all...
Colorado, United States
F.A.S.T. Enthusiast
bzzzzzzz's Garage Comments 1 – 3 of 7
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Read comments on bzzzzzzz's garage (7)
- May 29, 2007 at 9:05 am
- i see your having the same problem as me, someow i voted when i clearly know i didnt....hhmmmmmm strange eh
anyone eles??
- May 27, 2007 at 6:32 pm
- thanks for the vote and comment against my friends GTO...
- Apr 25, 2007 at 1:26 am
- Very beautiful Beretta you have there, Sir. I will be checking in on the progress of this car, for sure.
Good luck on the challenge.
Cars > bzzzzzzz's Garage


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Excellent fit, good quality fabric. Fabric is a bit rougher than I hoped, but not uncomfortable.
My son loves these and Overstock price was $30 less than in the department store. Great product
I bought 2 sets of these sheets and have had them for about 1 yr now. The quality is excellent and feel comfortable to the touch. After going in the wash multiple times, I have not noted any fading in the color at all. I am very happy w/ these sheets and will buy more in the future.
These sheets are excellent in quality. They are a lively print and a good fabric which did not wrinkle in the washer and dryer.
Second time ordering sheets from Overstock, Tommy Hilfiger specifically. I have not beenb disappointed and they look great in our son's bedroom
Nice sheets, lovely patterns, just not as soft as I prefer...but still great choice for nautical theme
My grandkids love the print. They wash great and look fantastic.
Bought these for the boys bunk room at our beach house. I was looking for good quality sheets that would stand up to a lot of washings. I found these in a department store and then looked on Overstock and found them at a much better price. Have been using them for 8 months and the colors are still vivid.
Product was made of a very rough fabric, with visible torn edges and smalls holes. Unusable.
love Tommy sheets. have purchased them previously. good buy and they wash well. soften each time they are washed and dried. will continue to purchase this brand of bed linen.
Items must be returned in new or unused condition and contain all original materials included with the shipment. More details
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Original "Jersey Boys" cast member John Lloyd Young sings "Can't Take My Eyes Off You"
Get a sneak peek at the national tour of Chicago.
January 1, 2013The former Destiny's Child singer takes on Broadway with a turn as Roxie Hart in Chicago
February 11, 2010Get a first look at the Broadway-bound musical based on the beloved film An American in Paris with creators Craig Lucas & Christopher Wheeldon. Click for more info!
November 14, 2014The Fantasticks tells the story of a young boy and girl who fall madly in love at the hands of their meddling fathers, but soon grow restless and stray from one another.
July 28, 2009Broadway.com chats to Ben Miles, Nathaniel Parker and Lydia Leonard about Wolf Hall Parts One and Two, which will play in rep at the Winter Garden Theatre from March 20.
January 8, 2015The Book of Mormon Tony Award nominee Andrew Rannells talks about his latest adventure in drag as the star of Hedwig and the Angry Inch.
September 12, 2014"Wicked" original cast member Norbert Leo Butz sings "Dancing Through Life"
January 20, 2010See Hari Dhillon, Josh Radnor, Gretchen Mol and more in Ayad Akhtar's Pulitzer Prize-winning play, Disgraced.
October 21, 2014"The Phantom of the Opera" star John Cudia sings "The Music of the Night"
January 22, 2010The seven stars of The Illusionists preview a few of the amazing magic tricks they perform in the show, opening December 4 at the Marquis Theatre. Click to find out more about the high-tech magic extravaganza!
December 4, 2014Get ready for an NYC adventure! Check out the stars of the upcoming Broadway revival of On the Town. Find out why this is a classic that sings, dances and can cook too!
September 9, 2014


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Open Lace Shoulder Top
Style # 203296
AVAILABILITY: Unavailable for immediate shipment.
Just off-the-shoulder neckline with sheer lace detail and soft and ultra lightweight fit make this bebe top a versatile and sexy way to work bottoms. Try it with a pair of colored denim and peep toe pumps.
- 92% nylon, 8% spandex.
- Center back to hem: 20" (51 cm).
- Hand wash.
- Imported.
- Model is 5'9" and is wearing a US size S.
Open Lace Shoulder Top
Great top, Great price
I bought it in black. I really like the details of the lace it gives a nice dimension to the top & most of all I love the open shoulder. Just be careful, the fabric gets easily caught on things.
February 24, 2013
Sexy Top, Great Price!!
I purchased this top in black, in P/S, and I absolutely love it!! As the previous reviewer said, it does run small. I normally wear an XS, and this feels a bit tight, especially in the shoulder/upper arm area, even though I have a small frame. However, it doesn't look too tight at all...it's curve-hugging and sexy!! If you're an XS, this should work for you in the P/S, but if you're a Size S, you'll probably want to size up. This is definitely a 5-star item & an amazing value at only $39!!!
February 21, 2013
Very pretty top
I love this top. It looks very feminine. I will be wearing it tucked in with a black tiered lace skirt and lace booties. The only thing is that the fabric is very fragile and easy runs under the arms. Otherwise, I'm very happy with it. I got the P/S and it runs true to size.
December 22, 2012
To love or not to love
I not to sure wheater to love this top or not. It looks great and I have gotten many compliments about it ,but it is very delicate. With that said, I didn't notice I had a chip nail and when I was putting it on the detail on the top was pulled. Also, it is skin tight so if ur planning to have a hardy meal maybe you should wear a different top.
December 12, 2012
Very Cute!
I love this fitted top. Looks great with pants or pencil skirt. Great quality and great price! Runs very small though, so I normally wear xs/s, but had to get a M/L because the material is so tight! If you are built on the curvy side with a larger chest this top might not be for you.
November 26, 2012
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Junior Ranger - 50 Species Hike
Can you find 50 species of insects, mammals, bird, reptiles, plants, and fungi at Goose Island State Park? Join a park ranger on a 1 mile hike and look for different creatures.
When |
Jan 04, 2014 from 08:30 AM to 10:00 AM |
Where | Goose Island State Park |
Contact Name | Janelle Rand |
Contact Email | firstname.lastname@example.com |
Contact Phone | 361)-729-2858 |
Join in on a Junior Ranger Explorer Activity at Goose Island State Park! Junior Ranger Explorer Activities focus on discovering the outdoors and nature. Prior to the hike we will go over the contents of a Junior Ranger Explorer Pack and how they can be used on our 50 species Hike!
This activity is for individuals of all ages. A 50 Species Hike is a way for children or adults to learn to identify new things, or learn more about the things they are already familiar with.
We may not get a total of 50 species on the Hike, but there are Junior Ranger Explorer Backpacks available at the Park Headquarters for continuing the challenge on your own.
When: 8:30 a.m.
Where: We will meet at the Bird Sanctuary on Warbler Way at 8:30 a.m. The Bird Sanctuary is in the woods camping area of the park, and is next to the restrooms on Warbler Way.
Helpful things to bring: A journal to record the names of your species, a camera if you want pictures, water, bug spray, and sturdy shoes; a Junior Ranger Explorer Pack is optional.
Park Location: So where is Goose Island State Park? We are located north of Rockport Fulton across the Copano Causeway on 202 S. Palmetto, Rockport, Tx.
Goose Island State Park has a day use fee of $5 per person 13 years of age and older, children 12 and under are free.