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Office of Scientific and Technical Information
Model documentation: electricity market module. [15 year forecasts
SciTech Connect
This report documents the electricity market model. This model is a component of the Intermediate Future Forecasting System (IFFS), the energy market model used to provide projections of energy markets up to 15 years into the future. The electricity market model was developed by the Supply Analysis and Integration Branch as part of building the larger system. This report is written for an audience consisting of mathematical economists, statisticians, operations research analysts, and utility planners. This report contains an overview and a mathematical specification of the electricity market module. It includes a description of the model logic and the individual subroutines in the computer code. A companion document Intermediate Future Forecasting System: Executive Summary (DOE/EIA-430) provides an overview of the components in IFFS and their linkages. 22 figures, 2 tables.
Sanders, R.C.; Murphy, F.H.
CDM in Charts | Open Energy Information
Open Energy Info (EERE)
CDM in Charts CDM in Charts Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: CDM in Charts Agency/Company /Organization: Institute for Global Environmental Strategies Sector: Energy Topics: Implementation, Policies/deployment programs Resource Type: Publications Website: enviroscope.iges.or.jp/modules/envirolib/upload/835/attach/charts.pdf References: CDM in Charts[1] Summary "This document aims to give a comprehensive and easy-to-understand description of the clean development mechanism (CDM). It should be noted that this document does not replicate in the exact manner all the texts agreed upon in the international negotiations. Also, there are issues yet to be settled in the international negotiations regarding detailed interpretations and processes. As for the details and exact expressions in
CDM Accreditation Panel CDM AP | Open Energy Information
CDM Accreditation Panel CDM AP CDM Accreditation Panel CDM AP Jump to: navigation, search Name CDM Accreditation Panel (CDM-AP) Place Bonn, Germany Zip 53153 Product The CDM accreditation panel (CDM-AP) prepares the decision making of the Executive Board in accordance with the procedure for accrediting operational entities. Coordinates 50.7323°, 7.101695° Loading map... {"minzoom":false,"mappingservice":"googlemaps3","type":"ROADMAP","zoom":14,"types":["ROADMAP","SATELLITE","HYBRID","TERRAIN"],"geoservice":"google","maxzoom":false,"width":"600px","height":"350px","centre":false,"title":"","label":"","icon":"","visitedicon":"","lines":[],"polygons":[],"circles":[],"rectangles":[],"copycoords":false,"static":false,"wmsoverlay":"","layers":[],"controls":["pan","zoom","type","scale","streetview"],"zoomstyle":"DEFAULT","typestyle":"DEFAULT","autoinfowindows":false,"kml":[],"gkml":[],"fusiontables":[],"resizable":false,"tilt":0,"kmlrezoom":false,"poi":true,"imageoverlays":[],"markercluster":false,"searchmarkers":"","locations":[{"text":"","title":"","link":null,"lat":50.7323,"lon":7.101695,"alt":0,"address":"","icon":"","group":"","inlineLabel":"","visitedicon":""}]}
Clean Development Mechanism Executive Board CDM EB | Open Energy...
Mechanism Executive Board CDM EB Jump to: navigation, search Name Clean Development Mechanism Executive Board (CDM EB) Place Bonn, Germany Zip D-53175 Product The CDM EB supervises...
The UNEP Project CD4CDM BUNDLING SMALL-SCALE CDM PROJECTS
E-Print Network (OSTI)
costs and low sales realizations deter project developers from offering Carbon Emission Reductions (CER it hard to bear high up-front costs and risk capital for running projects through the CDM marketThe UNEP Project CD4CDM BUNDLING SMALL-SCALE CDM PROJECTS December, 2004 H V Kumar S V Kulkarni
Predicting daily streamflow using rainfall forecasts, a simple loss module and unit hydrographs: Two Brazilian catchments
Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)
The performance of a simple, spatially-lumped, rainfall-streamflow model is compared with that of a more complex, spatially-distributed model. In terms of two model-fit statistics it is shown that for two catchments in Brazil (about 30,000km^2 and 34,000km^2) ... Keywords: Brazil, Hydropower, Rainfall forecasts, River Paran�, Streamflow forecasts, Unit hydrographs
I. G. Littlewood; R. T. Clarke; W. Collischonn; B. F. W. Croke
Cold Fronts in CDM clusters
Recently, high-resolution Chandra observations revealed the existence of very sharp features in the X-ray surface brightness and temperature maps of several clusters (Vikhlinin et. al., 2001). These features, called ``cold fronts'', are characterized by an increase in surface brightness by a factor >2 over 10-50 kpc, accompanied by a drop in temperature of a similar magnitude. The existence of such sharp gradients can be used to put interesting constraints on the physics of the intracluster medium (ICM), if their mechanism and longevity are well understood. Here, we present results of a search for cold fronts in high-resolution simulations of galaxy clusters in cold dark matter (CDM) models. We show that sharp gradients with properties similar to those of observed cold fronts naturally arise in cluster mergers when the shocks heat gas surrounding the merging sub-cluster, while its dense core remains relatively cold. The compression induced by supersonic motions and shock heating during the merger enhance the amplitude of gas density and temperature gradients across the front. Our results indicate that cold fronts are non-equilibrium transient phenomena and can be observed for a period of less than a billion years. We show that the velocity and density fields of gas surrounding the cold front can be very irregular which would complicate analyses aiming to put constraints on the physical conditions of the intracluster medium in the vicinity of the front.
Daisuke Nagai; Andrey V. Kravtsov
Predicting Substructure in CDM Haloes
Abstract. Observations of multiple-image gravitational lens systems suggest that the projected mass distributions of galaxy haloes may contain substantial inhomogeneities. The fraction of the halo mass in dense substructure is still highly uncertain, but could be as large as a few percent. While halo substructure is seen in numerical simulations of CDM haloes, little of this substructure survives in the innermost regions of haloes, and thus the observational claims for substructure at small projected radii are slightly surprising. There is evidence, however, that even the highest-resolution simulations published to-date are still limited by numerical effects that heat and disrupt substructure artificially in high-density regions. By comparing numerical and semi-analytic (SA) models of halo substructure, we show that current simulations probably underestimate the mass fraction in substructure at small projected radii, by a factor of at least 2�3. We discuss the prospects for using lensing observations as a fundamental test of the nature of dark matter. 1. Introduction: The
James E. Taylor; Arif Babul
CDM Sustainable Development Tool | Open Energy Information
CDM Sustainable Development Tool CDM Sustainable Development Tool Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary Name: CDM Sustainable Development Tool Agency/Company /Organization: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Secretariat Sector: Climate, Energy Topics: Analysis Tools User Interface: Website Complexity/Ease of Use: Simple Website: www.research.net/s.aspx?sm=18gHbqaSXStje1ZSfnNI3k2%2Be9hblXIZ7ZPrqk8cV Cost: Free Related Tools Alternative Fuel and Advanced Technology Vehicles Pilot Program Emissions Benefit Tool Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) TEEMP ... further results Find Another Tool FIND DEVELOPMENT IMPACTS ASSESSMENT TOOLS An online tool that highlights the co-benefits brought about by Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) projects.
CDM Emission Reductions Calculation Sheet Series | Open Energy Information
CDM Emission Reductions Calculation Sheet Series CDM Emission Reductions Calculation Sheet Series Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: CDM Emission Reductions Calculation Sheet Series Agency/Company /Organization: Institute for Global Environmental Strategies Sector: Energy, Water Focus Area: Agriculture, Greenhouse Gas Topics: Baseline projection, GHG inventory Resource Type: Online calculator User Interface: Spreadsheet Website: www.iges.or.jp/en/cdm/report_ers.html Cost: Free CDM Emission Reductions Calculation Sheet Series Screenshot References: CDM Emission Reductions Calculation Sheet Series[1] "IGES ERs Calculation Sheet aims at providing a simplified spreadsheet for demonstrating emission reductions based on the approved methodologies corresponding to eligible project activities. The sheet will provide you
CDM-PAT: a decision support tool for the pre-assessment of CDM projects
One of the major problems in selecting attractive Clean development mechanism (CDM) projects is the assessment of the potential projects regarding several eligibility criteria set by the CDM modalities and procedures as well as the assessment ... Keywords: DSS, clean development mechanism, energy decision support systems, energy efficiency, energy technology, pre-assessment, pre-evaluation, project proposals, renewable energy sources, sustainable development, web-based project assessment
Alexandros Flamos; Haris Doukas; Konstantinos D. Patlitzianas; John Psarras
Primary Research on Financing Innovation for China Coal CDM Projects Development
This paper gives an update introduction about China coal CDM projects, financing problems in China coal CDM development was analysized and some innovation suggestions for China CDM projects was given. Finally some successful experience in India CDM financing ...
Xiangyang Xu
UNFCCC/UNEP-Risoe CDM Bazaar | Open Energy Information
UNFCCC/UNEP-Risoe CDM Bazaar UNFCCC/UNEP-Risoe CDM Bazaar Jump to: navigation, search Name UNFCCC/UNEP-Risoe CDM Bazaar Agency/Company /Organization United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Partner UNEP-Risoe Centre Topics Finance, Market analysis Website http://www.cdmbazaar.net/ References CDM Bazaar Homepage [1] "The UNFCCC CDM Bazaar is a Web-based facility which serves as a platform for exchange of information on Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) project opportunities."[1] References ↑ 1.0 1.1 [1] Retrieved from "http://en.openei.org/w/index.php?title=UNFCCC/UNEP-Risoe_CDM_Bazaar&oldid=383423" Category: Programs What links here Related changes Special pages Printable version Permanent link Browse properties 429 Throttled (bot load) Error 429 Throttled (bot load)
Analysis of Technology Transfer in CDM Projects | Open Energy Information
Analysis of Technology Transfer in CDM Projects Analysis of Technology Transfer in CDM Projects Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary Name: Analysis of Technology Transfer in CDM Projects Agency/Company /Organization: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Sector: Energy, Land Topics: Finance, Implementation Resource Type: Publications Website: cdm.unfccc.int/Reference/Reports/TTreport/TTrep08.pdf Analysis of Technology Transfer in CDM Projects Screenshot References: Analysis of Technology Transfer in CDM Projects[1] Overview "Although the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) does not have an explicit technology transfer mandate, it may contribute to technology transfer by financing emission reduction projects using technologies currently not available in the host countries. This report analyzes the claims of
Voids in the LCRS versus CDM Models
We have analyzed the distribution of void sizes in the two-dimensional slices of the Las Campanas Redshift Survey (LCRS). Fourteen volume-limited subsamples were extracted from the six slices to cover a large part of the survey and to test the robustness of the results against cosmic variance. Thirteen samples were randomly culled to produce homogeneously selected samples. We then studied the relationship between the cumulative area covered by voids and the void size as a property of the void hierarchy. We find that the distribution of void sizes scales with the mean galaxy separation, $\\lambda$. In particular, we find that the size of voids covering half of the area is given by $D_{med} \\approx \\lambda + (12\\pm3) \\h^{-2}$Mpc. Next, by employing an environmental density threshold criterion to identify mock galaxies, we were able to extend this analysis to mock samples from dynamical $n$-body simulations of Cold Dark Matter (CDM) models. To reproduce the observed void statistics, overdensity thresholds of $\\delta_{th} \\approx 0 ... 1$ are necessary. We have compared standard (SCDM), open (OCDM), vacuum energy dominated ($\\Lambda$CDM), and broken scale invariant CDM models (BCDM): we find that both the void coverage distribution and the two-point correlation function provide important and complementary information on the large-scale matter distribution. The dependence of the void statistics on the threshold criterion for the mock galaxy indentification shows that the galaxy biasing is more crucial for the void size distribution than are differences between the cosmological models.
V. Mueller; S. Arbabi-Bidgoli; J. Einasto; D. Tucker
Event:CDM Assessment Training (September 2011) | Open Energy...
September 2011) Jump to: navigation, search Calendar.png CDM Assessment Training (September 2011): on 20110906 "A training workshop will be held for members of the Clean...
Event:CDM Assessment Training (November 2011) | Open Energy Informatio...
November 2011) Jump to: navigation, search Calendar.png CDM Assessment Training (November 2011): on 20111101 "A training workshop will be held for members of the Clean...
The Anisotropic Spatial Distribution of CDM Subhalos
I review recent results on the spatial distribution of substructure in CDM halos. I show that the spatial distribution of subhalos is anisotropic and generally prolate with a long axis that is closely aligned with the long axis of the total mass distribution of the host halo. I show that the correlation between the subhalo distribution and the long axis of the host halo is strong both in dissipationless and dissipational gasdynamical simulations. More massive subhalos tend to be more strongly clustered along the major axis of the host halo reflecting filamentary accretion. The anisotropy of subhalos has potential implications for the interpretation of several observations in the Local Group and beyond. For example, I show that while the mean projected mass fraction in substructure in the central regions of CDM halos is fsub \\approx 0.4%, fsub is a strong function of projection angle and is ~ 5 to 6 times higher for projections that are nearly collinear with the major axis of the host halo.
Zentner, A R
Forecast Correlation Coefficient Matrix of Stock Returns in Portfolio Analysis
Unadjusted Forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Unadjusted Forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Zhao, Feng
Shanghai CDM Service Center | Open Energy Information
Center Center Jump to: navigation, search Name Shanghai CDM Service Center Place Shanghai, Shanghai Municipality, China Sector Wind energy Product Developing the 45MW Shandong Lubei wind power project. Coordinates 31.247709°, 121.472618° Loading map... {"minzoom":false,"mappingservice":"googlemaps3","type":"ROADMAP","zoom":14,"types":["ROADMAP","SATELLITE","HYBRID","TERRAIN"],"geoservice":"google","maxzoom":false,"width":"600px","height":"350px","centre":false,"title":"","label":"","icon":"","visitedicon":"","lines":[],"polygons":[],"circles":[],"rectangles":[],"copycoords":false,"static":false,"wmsoverlay":"","layers":[],"controls":["pan","zoom","type","scale","streetview"],"zoomstyle":"DEFAULT","typestyle":"DEFAULT","autoinfowindows":false,"kml":[],"gkml":[],"fusiontables":[],"resizable":false,"tilt":0,"kmlrezoom":false,"poi":true,"imageoverlays":[],"markercluster":false,"searchmarkers":"","locations":[{"text":"","title":"","link":null,"lat":31.247709,"lon":121.472618,"alt":0,"address":"","icon":"","group":"","inlineLabel":"","visitedicon":""}]}
Forecast Technical Document Forecast Types
Forecast Technical Document Forecast Types A document describing how different forecast types are implemented in the 2011 Production Forecast system. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley Halsall #12;PF2011 Forecast Types Background Different `types' of forecast are possible for a specified area
RACORO Forecasting
NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)
Weather Briefings Observed Weather Cloud forecasting models BUFKIT forecast soundings + guidance from Norman NWS enhanced pages and discussions NAM-WRF updated...
Quasi-Biweekly Mode and Its Modulation on the Diurnal Rainfall in Taiwan Forecasted by the CFS
The occurrence of diurnal afternoon convection in Taiwan undergoes substantial modulation from tropical intraseasonal oscillations in the western North Pacific, including the quasi-biweekly (QBW) mode. By analyzing surface station observations and ...
Shih-Yu Wang; Hsin-Hsing Chia; Robert R. Gillies; Xianan Jiang
Forecasting Forecast Skill
We have shown that it is possible to predict the skill of numerical weather forecasts�a quantity which is variable from day to day and region to region. This has been accomplished using as predictor the dispersion (measured by the average ...
Eugenia Kalnay; Amnon Dalcher
Forecast Combinations
Forecast combinations have frequently been found in empirical studies to produce better forecasts on average than methods based on the ex-ante best individual forecasting model. Moreover, simple combinations that ignore correlations between forecast errors often dominate more refined combination schemes aimed at estimating the theoretically optimal combination weights. In this chapter we analyze theoretically the factors that determine the advantages from combining forecasts (for example, the degree of correlation between forecast errors and the relative size of the individual models� forecast error variances). Although the reasons for the success of simple combination schemes are poorly understood, we discuss several possibilities related to model misspecification, instability (non-stationarities) and estimation error in situations where thenumbersofmodelsislargerelativetothe available sample size. We discuss the role of combinations under asymmetric loss and consider combinations of point, interval and probability forecasts. Key words: Forecast combinations; pooling and trimming; shrinkage methods; model misspecification, diversification gains
Allan Timmermann; Jel Codes C
Forecasting overview
Forecasting is required in many situations: deciding whether to build another power generation plant in the next five years requires forecasts of future demand; scheduling staff in a call centre next week requires forecasts of call volume; stocking an inventory requires forecasts of stock requirements. Forecasts can be required several years in advance (for the case of capital investments), or only a few minutes beforehand (for telecommunication routing). Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. Some things are easier to forecast than others. The time of the sunrise tomorrow morning can be forecast very precisely. On the other hand, currency exchange rates are very difficult to forecast with any accuracy. The predictability of an event or a quantity depends on how well we understand the factors that contribute to it, and how much unexplained variability is involved. Forecasting situations vary widely in their time horizons, factors determining actual outcomes, types of data patterns, and many other aspects. Forecasting methods can be very simple such as using the most recent observation as a forecast (which is called the �na�ve method�), or highly complex such as neural nets and econometric systems of simultaneous equations. The
Rob J Hyndman
UNEP-Risoe CDM/JI Pipeline Analysis and Database | Open Energy Information
UNEP-Risoe CDM/JI Pipeline Analysis and Database UNEP-Risoe CDM/JI Pipeline Analysis and Database (Redirected from UNEP Risoe CDM/JI Pipeline Analysis and Database) Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: UNEP Risoe CDM/JI Pipeline Analysis and Database Agency/Company /Organization: UNEP-Risoe Centre Topics: Finance, Market analysis, Background analysis Website: cdmpipeline.org/ References: CDM/JI Pipeline Homepage [1] "The CDM/JI Pipeline Analysis and Database contains all CDM/JI projects that have been sent for validation/determination. It also contains the baseline & monitoring methodologies, a list of DOEs and several analyses." [1] References ↑ 1.0 1.1 [1] Retrieved from "http://en.openei.org/w/index.php?title=UNEP-Risoe_CDM/JI_Pipeline_Analysis_and_Database&oldid=383313"
Can $f(T)$ gravity theories mimic $?$CDM cosmic history
Recently the teleparallel Lagrangian density described by the torsion scalar T has been extended to a function of T. The $f(T)$ modified teleparallel gravity has been proposed as the natural gravitational alternative for dark energy to explain the late time acceleration of the universe. In order to reconstruct the function $f(T)$ by demanding a background $\\Lambda$CDM cosmology we assume that, (i) the background cosmic history provided by the flat $\\Lambda$CDM (the radiation ere with $\\omega_{eff}=1/3$, matter and de Sitter eras with $\\omega_{eff}=0$ and $\\omega_{eff}=-1$, respectively) (ii) the radiation dominate in the radiation era with $\\Omega_{0r}=1$ and the matter dominate during the matter phases when $\\Omega_{0m}=1$. We find the cosmological dynamical system which can obey the $\\Lambda$CDM cosmic history. In each era, we find a critical lines that, the radiation dominated and the matter dominated are one points of them in the radiation and matter phases, respectively. Also, we drive the cosmologically viability condition for these models. We investigate the stability condition with respect to the homogeneous scalar perturbations in each era and we obtain the stability conditions for the fixed points in each eras. Finally, we reconstruct the function $f(T)$ which mimics cosmic expansion history.
M. R. Setare; N. Mohammadipour
{Lambda}CDM universe in f(R) gravity
Several different explicit reconstructions of f(R) gravity are obtained from the background Friedmann-Laimatre-Robertson-Walker expansion history. It is shown that the only theory whose Lagrangian is a simple function of the Ricci scalar R, that admits an exact {Lambda}CDM expansion history, is standard general relativity with a positive cosmological constant and the only way to obtain this behavior of the scale factor for more general functions of R is to add additional degrees of freedom to the matter sector.
Dunsby, Peter K. S. [Centre for Astrophysics, Cosmology and Gravitation, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch, 7701 (South Africa); Department of Mathematics and Applied Mathematics, University of Cape Town, 7701 Rondebosch, Cape Town (South Africa); South African Astronomical Observatory, Observatory 7925, Cape Town (South Africa); Elizalde, Emilio; Saez-Gomez, Diego [Institut d'Estudis Espacials de Catalunya, ICE (IEEC-CSIC), Campus UAB, Facultat Ciencies, Torre C5-Par-2a pl, E-08193 Bellaterra, Barcelona (Spain); Goswami, Rituparno [Centre for Astrophysics, Cosmology and Gravitation, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch, 7701 (South Africa); Department of Mathematics and Applied Mathematics, University of Cape Town, 7701 Rondebosch, Cape Town (South Africa); Odintsov, Sergei [Institut d'Estudis Espacials de Catalunya, ICE (IEEC-CSIC), Campus UAB, Facultat Ciencies, Torre C5-Par-2a pl, E-08193 Bellaterra, Barcelona (Spain); Institucio Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avancats, Barcelona (Spain)
Sustainable waste management in Africa through CDM projects
Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer This is a compendium on GHG reductions via improved waste strategies in Africa. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer This note provides a strategic framework for Local Authorities in Africa. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Assists LAs to select Zero Waste scenarios and achieve sustained GHG reduction. - Abstract: Only few Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) projects (traditionally focussed on landfill gas combustion) have been registered in Africa if compared to similar developing countries. The waste hierarchy adopted by many African countries clearly shows that waste recycling and composting projects are generally the most sustainable. This paper undertakes a sustainability assessment for practical waste treatment and disposal scenarios for Africa and makes recommendations for consideration. The appraisal in this paper demonstrates that mechanical biological treatment of waste becomes more financially attractive if established through the CDM process. Waste will continue to be dumped in Africa with increasing greenhouse gas emissions produced, unless industrialised countries (Annex 1) fund carbon emission reduction schemes through a replacement to the Kyoto Protocol. Such a replacement should calculate all of the direct and indirect carbon emission savings and seek to promote public-private partnerships through a concerted support of the informal sector.
Couth, R. [CRECHE, Centre for Research in Environmental, Coastal and Hydrological Engineering, School of Engineering, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban 4041 (South Africa); Trois, C., E-mail: email@example.com [CRECHE, Centre for Research in Environmental, Coastal and Hydrological Engineering, School of Engineering, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban 4041 (South Africa)
Solar forecasting review
of Solar Forecasting . . . . . . . . . 2.4.1 Solarbudget at the foundation of satellite based forecastingWeather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model 7.1 Global
Inman, Richard Headen
NFI Forecasts Methodology NFI Forecasts Methodology
NFI Forecasts Methodology NFI Forecasts Methodology Overview Issued by: National Forest email@example.com Website: www.forestry.gov.uk/inventory 1 NFI Softwood Forecasts Methodology Overview #12;NFI Forecasts ........................................................................................................4 Rationale behind the new approach to the GB Private sector production forecast ........4 Volume
Forecast Technical Document Restocking in the Forecast
Forecast Technical Document Restocking in the Forecast A document describing how restocking of felled areas is handled in the 2011 Production Forecast. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley in the forecast Background During the period of a production forecast it is assumed that, as forest sub
> BUREAU HOME > AUSTRALIA > QUEENSLAND > FORECASTS BRISBANE FORECAST IMPROVEMENTS The Bureau of Meteorology is progressively upgrading its forecast system to provide more detailed forecasts across Australia. From October 2013 new and improved 7 day forecasts will be introduced for Brisbane, Gold Coast
Greenslade, Diana
Another Approach to Forecasting Forecast Skill
The skill of a medium-range numerical forecast can fluctuate widely from day to day. Providing an a priori estimate of the skill of the forecast is therefore important. Existing approaches include Monte Carlo Forecasting and Lagged Average ...
W. Y. Chen
Configuration Data Management (CDM) on a Shoestring Identifying and Utilizing an Existing Configuration and Data Management Infrastructure
The spreading need for and use of configuration and data management (CDM) standards has highlighted a number of challenges to the companies that need to implement those standards. For companies and organizations that are new to CDM or have limited CDM capabilities, one of the major dilemmas faced is identifying how and where to start. In many cases there is a need to contend with a legacy of poorly identified items and information and an immature or non-existent CDM infrastructure (processes, procedures, people, and information systems). To the company management and CDM professional this poses a seemingly insurmountable task of putting in place a CDM infrastructure that provides the needed benefits while keeping within an acceptable cost and schedule. This paper deals with initially establishing the CDM infrastructure using the tools that a company already has available. The paper identifies features of common software applications that can be used to implement CDM principles.
Forecast Prices
Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)
Notes: Notes: Prices have already recovered from the spike, but are expected to remain elevated over year-ago levels because of the higher crude oil prices. There is a lot of uncertainty in the market as to where crude oil prices will be next winter, but our current forecast has them declining about $2.50 per barrel (6 cents per gallon) from today's levels by next October. U.S. average residential heating oil prices peaked at almost $1.50 as a result of the problems in the Northeast this past winter. The current forecast has them peaking at $1.08 next winter, but we will be revisiting the outlook in more detail next fall and presenting our findings at the annual Winter Fuels Conference. Similarly, diesel prices are also expected to fall. The current outlook projects retail diesel prices dropping about 14 cents per gallon
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ELECTRICITY DEMAND FORECAST COMPARISON REPORT STAFFREPORT June 2005 ..............................................................................3 Residential Forecast Comparison ..............................................................................................5 Nonresidential Forecast Comparisons
The Forecast Gap: Linking Forwards and Forecasts
This report addresses a common problem in price forecasting: What to do when confronted with a persistent gap between results obtained from a structural forecast model and actual forward or spot prices? The report examines examples taken from natural gas and electric power forecasts and presents a novel approach to closing this �forecast gap.� Inspection reveals that the ratio of actual prices to forecast prices often exhibits stochastic movements that resemble those of commodity price movements. By usin...
Preliminary assessment of potential CDM early start projects in Brazil
The Brazil/US Aspen Global Forum on Climate Change Policies and Programs has facilitated a dialogue between key Brazil and US public and private sector leaders on the subject of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). With support from the US government, a cooperative effort between Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and the University of Sao Paulo conducted an assessment of a number of projects put forth by Brazilian sponsors. Initially, we gathered information and conducted a screening assessment for ten projects in the energy sector and six projects in the forestry sector. Some of the projects appeared to offer greater potential to be attractive for CDM, or had better information available. We then conducted a more detailed assessment of 12 of these projects, and two other projects that were submitted after the initial screening. An important goal was to assess the potential impact of Certified Emission Reductions (CERs) on the financial performance of projects. With the exception of the two forestry-based fuel displacement projects, the impact of CERs on the internal rate of return (IRR) is fairly small. This is true for both the projects that displace grid electricity and those that displace local (diesel-based) electricity production. The relative effect of CERs is greater for projects whose IRR without CERs is low. CERs have a substantial effect on the IRR of the two short-rotation forestry energy substitution projects. One reason is that the biofuel displaces coke and oil, both of which are carbon-intensive. Another factor is that the product of these projects (charcoal and woodfuel, respectively) is relatively low value, so the revenue from carbon credits has a strong relative impact. CERs also have a substantial effect on the NPV of the carbon sequestration projects. Financial and other barriers pose a challenge for implementation of most of the projects. In most cases, the sponsor lacks sufficient capital, and loans are available only at high interest rate and with substantial guarantee. A few of the projects might go ahead without the benefit of CERs, but most probably would not. Whether the projected revenue from CERs would be sufficient to induce sponsors to proceed with the projects is an important issue that requires further investigation. All of the projects contribute to economic development in Brazil. The forestry projects in particular would create a significant number of rural jobs, and contribute income to rural communities. Some of the carbon sequestration projects would provide environmental benefits with respect to protection of biodiversity and soil.
Meyers, S.; Sathaye, J.; Lehman, B.; Schumacher, K.; van Vliet, O.; Moreira, J.R.
Forecasting in Meteorology
Public weather forecasting heralded the beginning of modern meteorology less than 150 years ago. Since then, meteorology has been largely a forecasting discipline. Thus, forecasting could have easily been used to test and develop hypotheses, ...
C. S. Ramage
Event:Third Workshop on Enhancing the Regional Distribution of CDM Projects
Enhancing the Regional Distribution of CDM Projects Enhancing the Regional Distribution of CDM Projects in Asia and the Pacific Jump to: navigation, search Calendar.png Third Workshop on Enhancing the Regional Distribution of CDM Projects in Asia and the Pacific: on 2012/07/18 "This workshop is being organized by the Asian Development Bank (ADB), the Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES) and the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Secretariat, in collaboration with the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) Risoe Centre. The aim of the workshop is to provide a platform for participants to share best practices and key lessons, enhance their knowledge on the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and discuss technical, financial, and policy issues specific to their projects." Event Details
Renewable Fuels Module
Reports and Publications (EIA)
This report documents the objectives, analytical approach, and design of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Renewable Fuels Module (RFM) as it relates to the production of the Annual Energy Outlook forecasts.
Chris Namovicz
The First Generation of Stars in Lambda-CDM Cosmology
DOE Green Energy (OSTI)
We have performed a large set of high-resolution cosmological simulations using smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) to study the formation of the first luminous objects in the {Lambda}CDM cosmology. We follow the collapse of primordial gas clouds in eight early structures and document the scatter in the properties of the first star-forming clouds. Our first objects span formation redshifts from z {approx} 10 to z {approx} 50 and cover an order of magnitude in halo mass. We find that the physical properties of the central star-forming clouds are very similar in all of the simulated objects despite significant differences in formation redshift and environment. This suggests that the formation path of the first stars is largely independent of the collapse redshift; the physical properties of the clouds have little correlation with spin, mass, or assembly history of the host halo. The collapse of proto-stellar objects at higher redshifts progresses much more rapidly due to the higher densities, which accelerates the formation of molecular hydrogen, enhances initial cooling and shortens the dynamical timescales. The mass of the star-forming clouds cover a broad range, from a few hundred to a few thousand solar masses, and exhibit various morphologies: some have disk-like structures which are nearly rotational supported; others form flattened spheroids; still others form bars. All of them develop a single protostellar ''seed'' which does not fragment into multiple objects up to the moment that the central gas becomes optically thick to H{sub 2} cooling lines. At this time, the instantaneous mass accretion rate onto the centre varies significantly from object to object, with disk-like structures having the smallest mass accretion rates. The formation epoch and properties of the star-forming clouds are sensitive to the values of cosmological parameters.
Gao, Liang; /Durham U. /Garching, Max Planck Inst.; Abel, T.; /KIPAC, Menlo Park; Frenk, C.S.; Jenkins, A.; /Durham U.; Springel, V.; /Garching, Max Planck Inst.; Yoshida,; /Nagoya U.
BULK FLOW OF HALOS IN {Lambda}CDM SIMULATION
Analysis of the Pangu N-body simulation validates that the bulk flow of halos follows a Maxwellian distribution with variance that is consistent with the prediction of the linear theory of structure formation. We propose that the consistency between the observed bulk velocity and theories should be examined at the effective scale of the radius of a spherical top-hat window function yielding the same smoothed velocity variance in linear theory as the sample window function does. We compared some recently estimated bulk flows from observational samples with the prediction of the {Lambda}CDM model we used; some results deviate from expectation at a level of {approx}3{sigma}, but the discrepancy is not as severe as previously claimed. We show that bulk flow is only weakly correlated with the dipole of the internal mass distribution, that the alignment angle between the mass dipole and the bulk flow has a broad distribution peaked at {approx}30 Degree-Sign -50 Degree-Sign , and also that the bulk flow shows little dependence on the mass of the halos used in the estimation. In a simulation of box size 1 h {sup -1} Gpc, for a cell of radius 100 h {sup -1} Mpc the maximal bulk velocity is >500 km s{sup -1}; dipoles of the environmental mass outside the cell are not tightly aligned with the bulk flow, but are rather located randomly around it with separation angles {approx}20 Degree-Sign -40 Degree-Sign . In the fastest cell there is a slightly smaller number of low-mass halos; however, halos inside are clustered more strongly at scales {approx}> 20 h {sup -1} Mpc, which might be a significant feature since the correlation between bulk flow and halo clustering actually increases in significance beyond such scales.
Li Ming; Pan Jun; Feng Longlong; Kang Xi [Purple Mountain Observatory, 2 West Beijing Road, Nanjing 210008 (China); Gao Liang [National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 20A Datun Road, Chaoyang District, Beijing 100012 (China); Jing Yipeng; Yang Xiaohu; Lin Weipeng; Zhao Donghai; Zhang Pengjie [Key Laboratory for Research in Galaxies and Cosmology, Shanghai Astronomical Observatory, 80 Nandan Road, Shanghai 200030 (China); Chi Xuebin; Shan Guihua; Wang Long, E-mail: firstname.lastname@example.com [Supercomputing Center, Computer Network Information Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 4 Zhongguancun Nansijie, Haidian District, Beijing 100190 (China)
Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast Introduction..................................................................................................................................... 1
Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast Introduction................................................................................................................................. 3 Price Forecasts............................................................................................................................... 12 Oil Price Forecast Range
Forecasts, Meteorology Services, Environmental Sciences Department
Forecasts Short Term Forecast Suffolk County Northern Nassau Southern Nassau Area Forecast Discussion - OKX Area Forecast Discussion - NYS Area Forecast Discussion Mount Holly Area...
The National Energy Modeling System: An Overview 2000 - Commercial...
demand module (CDM) forecasts energy consumption by Census division for eight marketed energy sources plus solar and geothermal energy. For the three major commercial sector...
Verifying Forecasts Spatially
Numerous new methods have been proposed for using spatial information to better quantify and diagnose forecast performance when forecasts and observations are both available on the same grid. The majority of the new spatial verification methods can be ...
Eric Gilleland; David A. Ahijevych; Barbara G. Brown; Elizabeth E. Ebert
Forecasting of Supercooled Clouds
Using parameterizations of cloud microphysics, a technique to forecast supercooled cloud events is suggested. This technique can be coupled on the mesoscale with a prognostic equation for cloud water to improve aircraft icing forecasts. The ...
Andr� Tremblay; Anna Glazer; Wanda Szyrmer; George Isaac; Isztar Zawadzki
Time Series and Forecasting
Time Series and Forecasting. Leigh, Stefan and Perlman, S. (1991). "An Index for Comovement of Time Sequences With ...
Forecast Technical Document Volume Increment
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The Strategy of Professional Forecasting
This paper develops and compares two theories of strategic behavior of professional forecasters. The first theory posits that forecasters compete in a forecasting contest with pre-specified rules. In equilibrium of a winner-take-all contest, forecasts are excessively differentiated. According to the alternative reputational cheap talk theory, forecasters aim at convincing the market that they are well informed. The market evaluates their forecasting talent on the basis of the forecasts and the realized state. If the market expects forecaster honesty, forecasts are shaded toward the prior mean. With correct market expectations, equilibrium forecasts are imprecise but not shaded.
Marco Ottaviani; Peter Norman S�rensen
Commercial Demand Module
4 4 The commercial module forecasts consumption by fuel 15 at the Census division level using prices from the NEMS energy supply modules, and macroeconomic variables from the NEMS Macroeconomic Activity Module (MAM), as well as external data sources (technology characterizations, for example). Energy demands are forecast for ten end-use services 16 for eleven building categories 17 in each of the nine Census divisions (see Figure 5). The model begins by developing forecasts of floorspace for the 99 building category and Census division combinations. Next, the ten end-use service demands required for the projected floorspace are developed. The electricity generation and water and space heating supplied by distributed generation and combined heat and power technologies are projected. Technologies are then
Microsoft PowerPoint - FinalModule6.ppt
Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site
6: Metrics, Performance 6: Metrics, Performance Measurements and Forecasting Prepared by: Module 6 - Metrics, Performance Measures and Forecasting 2 Prepared by: Booz Allen Hamilton Module 6: Metrics, Performance Measurements and Forecasting Welcome to Module 6. The objective of this module is to introduce you to the Metrics and Performance Measurement tools used, along with Forecasting, in Earned Value Management. The Topics that will be addressed in this Module include: * Define Cost and Schedule Variances * Define Cost and Schedule Performance Indices * Define Estimate to Complete (ETC) * Define Estimate at Completion (EAC) and Latest Revised Estimate (LRE) Module 6 - Metrics, Performance Measures and Forecasting 3 Prepared by: Booz Allen Hamilton Review of Previous Modules Let's quickly review what has been covered in the previous modules.
Business forecasting methods
Forecasting is a common statistical task in business, where it helps inform decisions about scheduling of production, transportation and personnel, and provides a guide to long-term strategic planning. However, business forecasting is often done poorly and is frequently confused with planning and goals. They are three different things. Forecasting is about predicting the future as accurately as possible, given all the information available including historical data and knowledge of any future events that might impact the forecasts. Goals are what you would like to happen. Goals should be linked to forecasts and plans, but this does not always occur. Too often, goals are set without any plan for how to achieve them, and no forecasts for whether they are realistic. Planning is a response to forecasts and goals. Planning involves determining the appropriate actions that are required to make your forecasts match your goals. Forecasting should be an integral part of the decision-making activities of management, as it can play an important role in many areas of a company. Modern organizations require short-, medium- and long-term forecasts, depending on the specific application.
5.5 ENSEMBLE RE-FORECASTING : IMPROVING MEDIUM-RANGE FORECAST SKILL USING RETROSPECTIVE FORECASTS, Colorado 1. INTRODUCTION Improving weather forecasts is a primary goal of the U.S. National Oceanic predictions has been to improve the accuracy of the numerical forecast models. Much effort has been expended
Hamill, Tom
ORNL integrated forecasting system
This paper describes the integrated system for forecasting electric energy and load. In the system, service area models of electrical energy (kWh) and load distribution (minimum and maximum loads and load duration curve) are linked to a state-level model of electrical energy (kWh). Thus, the service area forecasts are conditional upon the state-level forecasts. Such a linkage reduces considerably the data requirements for modeling service area electricity demand.
Rizy, C.G.
Online 24-h solar power forecasting based on weather typeweather observations at blue hill massachusetts,� Solarof weather patterns on the intensity of solar irradiance;
2.1.2 European Solar Radiation Atlas (ESRA)2.4 Evaluation of Solar Forecasting . . . . . . . . .2.4.1 Solar Variability . . . . . . . . . . . . .
forecast | OpenEI
Browse Upload data GDR Community Login | Sign Up Search Facebook icon Twitter icon forecast Dataset Summary Description The EIA's annual energy outlook (AEO) contains yearly...
Seasonal tropical cyclone forecasts
Seasonal forecasts of tropical cyclone activity in various regions have been developed since the first attempts in the early 1980s by Neville
Suzana J. Camargo; Anthony G. Barnston; Philip J. Klotzbach; Christopher W. Landsea
Probabilistic Forecasts from the National Digital Forecast Database
The Bayesian processor of forecast (BPF) is developed for a continuous predictand. Its purpose is to process a deterministic forecast (a point estimate of the predictand) into a probabilistic forecast (a distribution function, a density function, ...
Roman Krzysztofowicz; W. Britt Evans
Can $f(T)$ gravity theories mimic $\\Lambda$CDM cosmic history
Recently the teleparallel Lagrangian density described by the torsion scalar T has been extended to a function of T. The $f(T)$ modified teleparallel gravity has been proposed as the natural gravitational alternative for dark energy to explain the late time acceleration of the universe. In order to reconstruct the function $f(T)$ by demanding a background $\\Lambda$CDM cosmology we assume that, (i) the background cosmic history provided by the flat $\\Lambda$CDM (the radiation ere with $\\omega_{eff}=1/3$, matter and de Sitter eras with $\\omega_{eff}=0$ and $\\omega_{eff}=-1$, respectively) (ii) the radiation dominate in the radiation era with $\\Omega_{0r}=1$ and the matter dominate during the matter phases when $\\Omega_{0m}=1$. We find the cosmological dynamical system which can obey the $\\Lambda$CDM cosmic history. In each era, we find a critical lines that, the radiation dominated and the matter dominated are one points of them in the radiation and matter phases, respectively. Also, we drive the cosmologically...
Setare, M R
The distinctions between $?$CDM and $f(T)$ gravity according Noether symmetry
Noether's theory offers us a useful tool to research the conserved quantities and symmetries of the modified gravity theories, among which the $f(T)$ theory, a generally modified teleparallel gravity, has been proposed to account for the dark energy phenomena. By the Noether symmetry approach, we investigate the power-law, exponential and polynomial forms of $f(T)$ theories. All forms of $f(T)$ concerned in this work possess the time translational symmetry, which is related with energy condition or Hamilton constraint. In addition, we find out that the performances of the power-law and exponential forms are not pleasing. It is rational adding a linear term $T$ to $T^n$ as the most efficient amendment to resemble the teleparallel gravity or General Relativity on small scales, ie., the scale of the solar system. The corresponding Noether symmetry indicates that only time translational symmetry remains. Through numerically calculations and observational data-sets constraining, the optimal form $\\alpha T + \\beta T^{-1}$ is obtained, whose cosmological solution resembles the standard $\\Lambda$CDM best with lightly reduced cosmic age which can be alleviated by introducing another $T^m$ term. More important is that we find the significant differences between $\\Lambda$CDM and $f(T)$ gravity. The $\\Lambda$CDM model has also two additional symmetries and corresponding positive conserved quantities, except the two negative conserved quantities.
Han Dong; Jiaxin Wang; Xinhe Meng
CDM as a Solution for the Present World Energy Problems (An Overview with Respect to the Building and Construction Sector)
One of the important responses of Kyoto Protocol towards mitigation of global warming is the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), which has garnered large emphasis amidst the global carbon market in terms of Certified Emission Reductions (CERs). While CDM aims to achieve sustainable development in the energy production and its consumption in developing countries, the results achieved through its implementation are still uncertain. Presently, the domestic and commercial buildings are responsible for more than one third of the total conventional energy use and associated greenhouse gas emissions. The Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) stated that, the building sector has the largest potential for significantly reducing greenhouse gas emissions. This paper envisages the important aspects such as, the non-inclusion of construction sector projects in CDM and its reasons, the role of energy efficiency buildings in the energy conservation arena and the new challenges being faced, while implementing the CDM portfolio in building energy sector.
Sudarsan, N.; Jayaraj, S.; Sreekanth, K. J.
Global and Local Skill Forecasts
A skill forecast gives the probability distribution for the error in a forecast. Statistically, Well-founded skill forecasting methods have so far only been applied within the context of simple models. In this paper, the growth of analysis errors ...
P. L. Houtekamer
Distortion Representation of Forecast Errors
Forecast error is decomposed into three components, termed displacement error, amplitude error, mid residual error, respectively. Displacement error measures how much of the forecast error can be accounted for by moving the forecast to best fit ...
Ross N. Hoffman; Zheng Liu; Jean-Francois Louis; Christopher Grassoti
Composite forecasting in commodity systems
Paper No. COMPOSI1E FORECASTING IN CO/Yt.flDITI SYSTfu\\1S1980 .i CfIAPTER COMPOSITE FORECASTING IN COMMOOITY SYSTEMS*to utilizeeconometric .modelsfor forecasting ! ,urposes. The
Johnson, Stanley R; Rausser, Gordon C.
Arnold Schwarzenegger INTEGRATED FORECAST AND
Arnold Schwarzenegger Governor INTEGRATED FORECAST AND RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT (INFORM) FOR NORTHERN; the former with primary contributions in the areas of climate and hydrologic forecasting and the latter Service (NWS) California Nevada River Forecast Center (CNRFC), the California Department of Water
CONSULTANT REPORT DEMAND FORECAST EXPERT PANEL INITIAL forecast, end-use demand modeling, econometric modeling, hybrid demand modeling, energyMahon, Carl Linvill 2012. Demand Forecast Expert Panel Initial Assessment. California Energy
Does the term structure forecast
provides more accurate forecasts of real consumption growth14. Harvey, C.R. (1989): \\Forecasts of economic growth fromC.R. (1993): \\Term structure forecasts economic growth", Fi-
Berardi, Andrea; Torous, Walter
Forecasting photovoltaic array power production subject to mismatch losses
The development of photovoltaic (PV) energy throughout the world this last decade has brought to light the presence of module mismatch losses in most PV applications. Such power losses, mainly occasioned by partial shading of arrays and differences in PV modules, can be reduced by changing module interconnections of a solar array. This paper presents a novel method to forecast existing PV array production in diverse environmental conditions. In this approach, field measurement data is used to identify module parameters once and for all. The proposed method simulates PV arrays with adaptable module interconnection schemes in order to reduce mismatch losses. The model has been validated by experimental results taken on a 2.2 kW{sub p} plant, with three different interconnection schemes, which show reliable power production forecast precision in both partially shaded and normal operating conditions. Field measurements show interest in using alternative plant configurations in PV systems for decreasing module mismatch losses. (author)
Picault, D.; Raison, B.; Bacha, S. [Grenoble Electrical Engineering Laboratory (G2Elab), 961, rue Houille Blanche BP 46, 38402 St Martin d'Heres (France); de la Casa, J.; Aguilera, J. [Grupo de Investigacion IDEA, Departamento de Electronica, Escuela Politecnica Superior, Universidad de Jaen, Campus Las Lagunillas, 23071 Jaen (Spain)
Coefficients for Debiasing Forecasts
Skill-score decompositions can be used to analyze the effects of bias on forecasting skill. However, since bias terms are typically squared, and bias is measured in skill-score units rather than in units of the forecasts, such decompositions only ...
Thomas R. Stewart; Patricia Reagan-Cirincione
Evaluating Point Forecasts
Typically, point forecasting methods are compared and assessed by means of an error measure or scoring function, such as the absolute error or the squared error. The individual scores are then averaged over forecast cases, to result in a summary measure of the predictive performance, such as the mean absolute error or the (root) mean squared error. I demonstrate that this common practice can lead to grossly misguided inferences, unless the scoring function and the forecasting task are carefully matched. Effective point forecasting requires that the scoring function be specified ex ante, or that the forecaster receives a directive in the form of a statistical functional, such as the mean or a quantile of the predictive distribution. If the scoring function is specified ex ante, the forecaster can issue the optimal point forecast, namely, the Bayes rule. If the forecaster receives a directive in the form of a functional, it is critical that the scoring function be consistent for it, in the sense that the expect...
Gneiting, Tilmann
Forecasters � Objectives and Strategies ?
This chapter develops a unified modeling framework for analyzing the strategic behavior of forecasters. The theoretical model encompasses reputational objectives, competition for the best accuracy, and bias. Also drawing from the extensive literature on analysts, we review the empirical evidence on strategic forecasting and illustrate how our model can be structurally estimated.
Iv�n Marinovic; Marco Ottaviani; Peter Norman S�rensen
A New Verification Score for Public Forecasts
CREF, a new verification score for public forecasts, is introduced. This verification score rewards a forecaster who forecasts a rare event accurately. CREF was used to verify local forecasts at the Weather Service Forecast Office (WSFO) in ...
Dean P. Gulezian
Commercial Sector Demand Module
Documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Commercial Sector Demand Module. The report catalogues and describes the model assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, model source code, and forecast results generated through the synthesis and scenario development based on these components.
Kevin Jarzomski
Forecasting technology costs via the Learning Curve - Myth or Magic?
is generally considered to be traditional fossil fuel power stations, hence making a further assumption that such a value for cost can be forecasted). In situations where niche markets exist (for example solar PV electricity for remote areas or hand held... Solar PV provides a good example of the use and dangers of using experience curves to forecast future costs of an energy technology. It is a good example since solar PV modules are generally accessed by an international market allowing for worldwide...
Alberth, Stephan
· NATIONAL AND GLOBAL FORECASTS · WEST VIRGINIA PROFILES AND FORECASTS · ENERGY · HEALTHCARE Industry Insight: West Virginia Fiscal Forecast 34 CHAPTER 4: WEST ViRGiNiA'S 35 COUNTiES AND MSAs West Forecast Summary 2 CHAPTER 1: THE UNiTED STATES ECONOMY Figure 1.1: United States Real GDP Growth 3 Figure
Mohaghegh, Shahab
1 APPLICATION OF PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS: DECISION MAKING WITH FORECAST UNCERTAINTY Rick Katz.isse.ucar.edu/HP_rick/dmuu.pdf #12;2 QUOTES ON USE OF PROBABILITY FORECASTS · Lao Tzu (Chinese Philosopher) "He who knows does and Value of Probability Forecasts (4) Cost-Loss Decision-Making Model (5) Simulation Example (6) Economic
Katz, Richard
Why are survey forecasts superior to model forecasts?
We investigate two characteristics of survey forecasts that are shown to contribute to their superiority over purely model-based forecasts. These are that the consensus forecasts incorporate the effects of perceived changes in the long-run outlook, as well as embodying departures from the path toward the long-run expectation. Both characteristics on average tend to enhance forecast accuracy. At the level of the individual forecasts, there is scant evidence that the second characteristic enhances forecast accuracy, and the average accuracy of the individual forecasts can be improved by applying a mechanical correction.
Michael P. Clements; Michael P. Clements
LOAD FORECASTING Eugene A. Feinberg
's electricity price forecasting model, produces forecast of gas demand consistent with electric load. #12Gas demand Council's Market Price of Electricity Forecast Natural GasDemand Electric Load Aggregating Natural between the natural gas and electricity and new uses of natural gas emerge. T natural gas forecasts
Feinberg, Eugene A.
Demand Forecast INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY
Demand Forecast INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY A 20-year forecast of electricity demand is a required of any forecast of electricity demand and developing ways to reduce the risk of planning errors that could arise from this and other uncertainties in the planning process. Electricity demand is forecast
Higgs-Boson Benchmarks in Agreement with CDM, EWPO and BPO
We explore `benchmark planes' in the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (MSSM) that are in agreement with the measured cold dark matter (CDM) density, electroweak precision observables (EWPO) and B physics observables (BPO). The M_A-tan_beta planes are specified assuming that gaugino masses m_{1/2}, soft trilinear supersymmetry-breaking parameters A_0 and the soft supersymmetry-breaking contributions m_0 to the squark and slepton masses are universal, but not those associated with the Higgs multiplets (the NUHM framework). We discuss the prospects for probing experimentally these benchmark surfaces at the Tevatron collider, the LHC and the ILC.
S. Heinemeyer
Factors Driving Prices & Forecast
This spread is a function of the balance between demand and fresh supply (production and net imports). Finally I will discuss the current forecast for distillate prices this winter...
Modeling and Forecasting Aurora
Modeling the physical processes needed for forecasting space-weather events requires multiscale modeling. This article discusses several modelsresearchers use to treat the various auroral processes that influence space weather.
Dirk Lummerzheim
Valuing Climate Forecast Information
The article describes research opportunities associated with evaluating the characteristics of climate forecasts in settings where sequential decisions are made. Illustrative results are provided for corn production in east central Illinois. ...
Steven T. Sonka; James W. Mjelde; Peter J. Lamb; Steven E. Hollinger; Bruce L. Dixon
Industrial Demand Module
The NEMS Industrial Demand Module estimates energy consumption by energy source (fuels and The NEMS Industrial Demand Module estimates energy consumption by energy source (fuels and feedstocks) for 12 manufacturing and 6 nonmanufacturing industries. The manufacturing industries are further subdivided into the energy-intensive manufacturing industries and nonenergy-intensive manufacturing industries. The manufacturing industries are modeled through the use of a detailed process flow or end use accounting procedure, whereas the nonmanufacturing industries are modeled with substantially less detail (Table 17). The Industrial Demand Module forecasts energy consumption at the four Census region level (see Figure 5); energy consumption at the Census Division level is estimated by allocating the Census region forecast using the SEDS 27 data.
Forecasting in the Presence of Level Shifts
accuracy. Journal of Forecasting 19 : 537-560. Hamilton JD.430. Harvey AC. 1989. Forecasting, structural time seriesMH, Timmermann A. 1994. Forecasting stock returns: An
Smith, Aaron
Multivariate Forecast Evaluation And Rationality Testing
1062�1088. MULTIVARIATE FORECASTS Chaudhuri, P. (1996): �OnKingdom. MULTIVARIATE FORECASTS Kirchg�ssner, G. , and U. K.2005): �Estimation and Testing of Forecast Rationality under
Komunjer, Ivana; OWYANG, MICHAEL
We examine the accuracy and bias of intrinsic equity prices estimated from three accounting-based valuation models using analyst�s earnings forecasts over a four-year horizon. The models are: (a) the earnings capitalization model, (b) the residual income model without a terminal value, and (c) the residual income model with a terminal value that assumes residual income will grow beyond the horizon at a constant rate determined from the expected residual income growth rate over the forecast horizon. Our analysis is based on valuation errors that are calculated by comparing estimated prices to actual prices. We contribute to the literature by examining whether: (i) the analysts � earnings forecasts convey information about value beyond that conveyed by current earnings, book value and dividends, (ii) the use of firm specific growth rates in terminal value calculations results in more unbiased and accurate valuations than the use of constant growth rates, and (iii) different models perform better under different ex-ante conditions. We find that analysts � earnings forecasts convey information about value beyond that conveyed by current earnings, book values and dividends. Each of the models that we used has valuation errors that decline monotonically as the horizon increases implying that earnings forecasts at each horizon convey new value relevant information. We cannot find a clear advantage to using firm specific growth rates instead of a constant rate of 4 % across all sample
Theodore Sougiannis; Takashi Yaekura
CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 REVISED FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand Robert P. Oglesby Executive Director #12;i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The demand forecast is the combined prepared the commercial sector forecast. Mehrzad Soltani Nia helped prepare the industrial forecast
Consensus Coal Production Forecast for
Consensus Coal Production Forecast for West Virginia 2009-2030 Prepared for the West Virginia Summary 1 Recent Developments 2 Consensus Coal Production Forecast for West Virginia 10 Risks References 27 #12;W.Va. Consensus Coal Forecast Update 2009 iii List of Tables 1. W.Va. Coal Production
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST METHODS REPORT Companion Report to the California Energy Demand 2006-2016 Staff Energy Demand Forecast Report STAFFREPORT June 2005 CEC-400 .......................................................................................................................................1-1 ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING AT THE CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION: AN OVERVIEW
Forecast Technical Document Technical Glossary
Forecast Technical Document Technical Glossary A document defining some of the terms used in the 2011 Production Forecast technical documentation. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley in the Forecast documentation. In some cases, the terms and the descriptions are "industry standard", in others
Forecast Technical Document Tree Species
Forecast Technical Document Tree Species A document listing the tree species included in the 2011 Production Forecast Tom Jenkins Justin Gilbert Ewan Mackie Robert Matthews #12;PF2011 List of tree species The following is the list of species used within the Forecast System. Species are ordered alphabetically
3, 21452173, 2006 Probabilistic forecast
HESSD 3, 21452173, 2006 Probabilistic forecast verification F. Laio and S. Tamea Title Page for probabilistic forecasts of continuous hydrological variables F. Laio and S. Tamea DITIC Department2173, 2006 Probabilistic forecast verification F. Laio and S. Tamea Title Page Abstract Introduction
Paris-Sud XI, Université de
4, 189212, 2007 Forecast and
OSD 4, 189212, 2007 Forecast and analysis assessment through skill scores M. Tonani et al. Title Science Forecast and analysis assessment through skill scores M. Tonani 1 , N. Pinardi 2 , C. Fratianni 1 Forecast and analysis assessment through skill scores M. Tonani et al. Title Page Abstract Introduction
predecessors to forecast stock prices and manage portfolios for approximately 3 years.) We examineFINANCIAL FORECASTING USING GENETIC ALGORITHMS SAM MAHFOUD and GANESH MANI LBS Capital Management entitled Genetic Algorithms for Inductive Learning). Time-series forecasting is a special type
Boetticher, Gary D.
CDM-based design and performance evaluation of a robust AQM method for dynamic TCP/AQM networks
A new robust AQM strategy for dynamically varying TCP/AQM networks is proposed and its performance is investigated through computer simulations in MATLAB and ns-2 environments. The developed AQM is designed based on coefficient diagram method (CDM), ... Keywords: Active queue management, Coefficient diagram method, Model reference adaptive control, Recursive parameter estimation
N. Bigdeli; M. Haeri
Forecast of auroral activity
A new technique is developed to predict auroral activity based on a sample of over 9000 auroral sites identified in global auroral images obtained by an ultraviolet imager on the NASA Polar satellite during a 6-month period. Four attributes of auroral activity sites are utilized in forecasting
A. T. Y. Lui
Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Tables
Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Table 2. Total Energy Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 3. Total Petroleum Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 4. Total Natural Gas Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 5. Total Coal Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 6. Total Electricity Sales, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 7. Crude Oil Production, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 8. Natural Gas Production, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 9. Coal Production, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 10. Net Petroleum Imports, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 11. Net Natural Gas Imports, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 12. Net Coal Exports, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 13. World Oil Prices, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 14. Natural Gas Wellhead Prices, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 15. Coal Prices to Electric Utilities, Actual vs. Forecasts
Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation
by Esmeralda Sánchez The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has produced an annual evaluation of the accuracy of the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on the prior year by adding the projections from the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. The Forecast Evaluation examines the accuracy of AEO forecasts dating back to AEO82 by calculating the average absolute forecast errors for each of the major variables for AEO82 through AEO2003. The average absolute forecast error, which for the purpose of this report will also be referred to simply as "average error" or "forecast error", is computed as the simple mean, or average, of all the absolute values of the percent errors,
Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications of Ensemble Statistical Procedures
Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications ofidentify with useful forecasting skill the very few inmatescontribute substantially to forecasting skill necessarily
Berk, Richard; Kriegler, Brian; Baek, Jong-Ho
Information and Inference in Econometrics: Estimation, Testing and Forecasting
Application: Forecasting Equity Premium . . . . . . . . . .2.6.1 Forecasting4 Forecasting Using Supervised Factor Models 4.1
Tu, Yundong
Richard A. Berk; Brian Kriegler; Jong-Ho Baek
Management Earnings Forecasts and Value of Analyst Forecast Revisions
Prior studies evaluate the relative importance of the sources of value that financial analysts bring to the market based on the price impact of forecast revisions over the event time. We find that management earnings forecasts influence the timing and precision of analyst forecasts. More importantly, evidence suggests that prior studies � finding of weaker (stronger) stock-price responses to forecast revisions in the period immediately after (before) the prior-quarter earnings announcement is likely to be the artifact of a temporal pattern of management earnings forecasts over the event time. To the extent that management earnings forecasts are public disclosures, our results suggest that the relative importance of analysts ' information discovery role documented in prior studies is likely to be overstated.
Yongtae Kim; Minsup Song
by Esmeralda Sanchez by Esmeralda Sanchez Errata -(7/14/04) The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has produced an annual evaluation of the accuracy of the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on the prior year by adding the projections from the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. The Forecast Evaluation examines the accuracy of AEO forecasts dating back to AEO82 by calculating the average absolute forecast errors for each of the major variables for AEO82 through AEO2003. The average absolute forecast error, which for the purpose of this report will also be referred to simply as "average error" or "forecast error", is computed as the simple mean, or average, of all the absolute values of the percent errors, expressed as the percentage difference between the Reference Case projection and actual historic value, shown for every AEO and for each year in the forecast horizon (for a given variable). The historical data are typically taken from the Annual Energy Review (AER). The last column of Table 1 provides a summary of the most recent average absolute forecast errors. The calculation of the forecast error is shown in more detail in Tables 2 through 18. Because data for coal prices to electric generating plants were not available from the AER, data from the Monthly Energy Review (MER), July 2003 were used.
Chapter 11 Forecasting breaks and forecasting during breaks
Success in accurately forecasting breaks requires that they are predictable from relevant information available at the forecast origin using an appropriate model form, which can be selected and estimated before the break. To clarify the roles of these six necessary conditions, we distinguish between the information set for �normal forces � and the one for �break drivers�, then outline sources of potential information. Relevant non-linear, dynamic models facing multiple breaks can have more candidate variables than observations, so we discuss automatic model selection. As a failure to accurately forecast breaks remains likely, we augment our strategy by modelling breaks during their progress, and consider robust forecasting devices.
Jennifer L. Castle; Nicholas W. P. Fawcett; David F. Hendry
Comparison of Bottom-Up and Top-Down Forecasts: Vision Industry Energy Forecasts with ITEMS and NEMS
Comparisons are made of energy forecasts using results from the Industrial module of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) and an industrial economic-engineering model called the Industrial Technology and Energy Modeling System (ITEMS), a model developed for industrial energy analysis at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. Although the results are mixed, generally ITEMS show greater penetration of energy efficient technologies and thus lower energy use, even though the business as usual forecasts for ITEMS uses a higher discount rate than NEMS uses.
Roop, J. M.; Dahowski, R. T
Forecasting Uncertain Hotel Room Demand
Economic systems are characterized by increasing uncertainty in their dynamics. This increasing uncertainty is likely to incur bad decisions that can be costly in financial terms. This makes forecasting of uncertain economic variables an instrumental activity in any organization. This paper takes the hotel industry as a practical application of forecasting using the Holt-Winters method. The problem here is to forecast the uncertain demand for rooms at a hotel for each arrival day. Forecasting is part of hotel revenue management system whose objective is to maximize the revenue by making decisions regarding when to make rooms available for customers and at what price. The forecast approach discussed in this paper is based on quantitative models and does not incorporate management expertise. Even though, forecast results are found to be satisfactory for certain days, this is not the case for other arrival days. It is believed that human judgment is important when dealing with ...
Mihir Rajopadhye Mounir; Mounir Ben Ghaliay; Paul P. Wang; Timothy Baker; Craig V. Eister
Forecast Technical Document Growing Stock Volume
Forecast Technical Document Growing Stock Volume Forecasts A document describing how growing stock (`standing') volume is handled in the 2011 Production Forecast. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley Halsall #12;PF2011 Growing stock volume forecasts Background A forecast of standing volume (or
WRF-Fire: Coupled Weather�Wildland Fire Modeling with the Weather Research and Forecasting Model
A wildland fire-behavior module, named WRF-Fire, was integrated into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) public domain numerical weather prediction model. The fire module is a surface fire-behavior model that is two-way coupled with the ...
Janice L. Coen; Marques Cameron; John Michalakes; Edward G. Patton; Philip J. Riggan; Kara M. Yedinak
Aviation forecasting and systems analyses
The 9 papers in this report deal with the following areas: method of allocating airport runway slots; method for forecasting general aviation activity; air traffic control network-planning model based on second-order Markov chains; analyzing ticket-choice decisions of air travelers; assessing the safety and risk of air traffic control systems: risk estimation from rare events; forecasts of aviation fuel consumption in Virginia; estimating the market share of international air carriers; forecasts of passenger and air-cargo activity at Logan International Airport; and forecasting method for general aviation aircraft and their activity.
Geisinger, K.E.; Brander, J.R.G.; Wilson, F.R.; Kohn, H.M.; Polhemus, N.W.
Studies of inflation and forecasting.
??This dissertation contains five research papers in the area of applied econometrics. The two broad themes of the research are inflation and forecasting. The first� (more)
Bermingham, Colin
UWIG Forecasting Workshop -- Albany (Presentation)
This presentation describes the importance of good forecasting for variable generation, the different approaches used by industry, and the importance of validated high-quality data.
Lew, D.
Residential Sector Demand Module 1998, Model Documentation
This is the fourth edition of the Model Documentation Report: Residential Sector DemandModule of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). It reflects changes made to themodule over the past year for the Annual Energy Outlook 1998. Since last year, severalnew end-use services were added to the module, including: Clothes washers,dishwashers, furnace fans, color televisions, and personal computers. Also, as with allNEMS modules, the forecast horizon has been extended to the year 2020.
John H. Cymbalsky
Evaluating Density Forecasts: Forecast Combinations, Model Mixtures, Calibration and Sharpness
In a recent article Gneiting, Balabdaoui and Raftery (JRSSB, 2007) propose the criterion of sharpness for the evaluation of predictive distributions or density forecasts. They motivate their proposal by an example in which standard evaluation procedures based on probability integral transforms cannot distinguish between the ideal forecast and several competing forecasts. In this paper we show that their example has some unrealistic features from the perspective of the time-series forecasting literature, hence it is an insecure foundation for their argument that existing calibration procedures are inadequate in practice. We present an alternative, more realistic example in which relevant statistical methods, including information-based methods, provide the required discrimination between competing forecasts. We conclude that there is no need for a subsidiary criterion of sharpness.
James Mitchell; Kenneth F. Wallis
On the Prediction of Forecast Skill
Using 10-day forecast 500 mb height data from the last 7 yr, the potential to predict the skill of numerical weather forecasts is discussed. Four possible predictor sets are described. The first, giving the consistency between adjacent forecasts, ...
T. N. Palmer; S. Tibaldi
Equitable Skill Scores for Categorical Forecasts
Many skill scores used to evaluate categorical forecasts of discrete variables are inequitable, in the sense that constant forecasts of some events lead to better scores than constant forecasts of other events. Inequitable skill scores may ...
Lev S. Gandin; Allan H. Murphy
Whither the Weather Analysis and Forecasting Process?
An argument is made that if human forecasters are to continue to maintain a skill advantage over steadily improving model and guidance forecasts, then ways have to be found to prevent the deterioration of forecaster skills through disuse. The ...
Lance F. Bosart
Lagged Ensembles, Forecast Configuration, and Seasonal Predictions
An analysis of lagged ensemble seasonal forecasts from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) is presented. The focus of the analysis is on the construction of lagged ensemble forecasts ...
Mingyue Chen; Wanqiu Wang; Arun Kumar
Improving Forecast Communication: Linguistic and Cultural Considerations
One goal of weather and climate forecasting is to inform decision making. Effective communication of forecasts to various sectors of the public is essential for meeting that goal, yet studies repeatedly show that forecasts are not well understood ...
Karen Pennesi
An analysis of lagged ensemble seasonal forecasts from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), is presented. The focus of the analysis is on the construction of lagged ensemble forecasts ...
Evaluation of errors in national energy forecasts.
??Energy forecasts are widely used by the U.S. government, politicians, think tanks, and utility companies. While short-term forecasts were reasonably accurate, medium and long-range forecasts� (more)
Sakva, Denys
What Is the True Value of Forecasts?
Understanding the economic value of weather and climate forecasts is of tremendous practical importance. Traditional models that have attempted to gauge forecast value have focused on a best-case scenario, in which forecast users are assumed to ...
Antony Millner
Diagnosing Forecast Errors in Tropical Cyclone Motion
This paper reports on the development of a diagnostic approach that can be used to examine the sources of numerical model forecast error that contribute to degraded tropical cyclone (TC) motion forecasts. Tropical cyclone motion forecasts depend ...
Thomas J. Galarneau Jr.; Christopher A. Davis
Forecasting Electric Vehicle Costs with Experience Curves
April, 5. R 2~1. Dino. "Forecasting the Price Evolution of 1ElectromcProducts," Ioumal of Forecasting, �oL4, No I, 1985.costs and a set of forecasting tools that can be refined as
Lipman, Timonthy E.; Sperling, Daniel
Probabilistic Verification of Monthly Temperature Forecasts
Monthly forecasting bridges the gap between medium-range weather forecasting and seasonal predictions. While such forecasts in the prediction range of 1�4 weeks are vital to many applications in the context of weather and climate risk management, ...
Andreas P. Weigel; Daniel Baggenstos; Mark A. Liniger; Fr�d�ric Vitart; Christof Appenzeller
CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand.Oglesby Executive Director #12;i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The demand forecast is the combined product to the contributing authors listed previously, Mohsen Abrishami prepared the commercial sector forecast. Mehrzad
CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 FINAL FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand The demand forecast is the combined product of the hard work and expertise of numerous California Energy previously, Mohsen Abrishami prepared the commercial sector forecast. Mehrzad Soltani Nia helped prepare
A Forecast for the California Labor Market
issue for the state. A Forecast for the California Laborto Go? � The UCLA Anderson Forecast for the Nation andAngeles: UCLA Anderson Forecast: Nation 1.1 � 1.9. Dhawan,
Mitchell, Daniel J. B.
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION STAFF FORECAST OF 2007 PEAK DEMAND STAFFREPORT June 2006 CEC-400.................................................................................. 9 Sources of Forecast Error....................................................................... .................11 Tables Table 1: Revised versus September 2005 Peak Demand Forecast ......................... 2
Operational Forecaster Uncertainty Needs and Future Roles
Key results of a comprehensive survey of U.S. National Weather Service operational forecast managers concerning the assessment and communication of forecast uncertainty are presented and discussed. The survey results revealed that forecasters are ...
David R. Novak; David R. Bright; Michael J. Brennan
Calibration of Probabilistic Forecasts of Binary Events
Probabilistic forecasts of atmospheric variables are often given as relative frequencies obtained from ensembles of deterministic forecasts. The detrimental effects of imperfect models and initial conditions on the quality of such forecasts can ...
Cristina Primo; Christopher A. T. Ferro; Ian T. Jolliffe; David B. Stephenson
1 CORPORATE GOVERNANCE AND MANAGEMENT EARNINGS FORECAST QUALITY: EVIDENCE FROM FRENCH IPOS Anis attributes, ownership retained, auditor quality, and underwriter reputation and management earnings forecast quality measured by management earnings forecast accuracy and bias. Using 117 French IPOs, we find
Forecasting women's apparel sales using mathematical
Forecasting women's apparel sales using mathematical modeling Celia Frank and Ashish Garg, USA Les Sztandera Philadelphia University, Philadelphia, PA, USA Keywords Apparel, Forecasting average (MA), auto- regression (AR), or combinations of them are used for forecasting sales. Since
Raheja, Amar
Calibration of Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts
From 1 August 1990 to 31 July 1995, the Weather Service Forecast Office in Pittsburgh prepared 6159 probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts. Forecasts were made twice a day for 24-h periods beginning at 0000 and 1200 UTC for two river ...
Roman Krzysztofowicz; Ashley A. Sigrest
Evaluating Probabilistic Forecasts Using Information Theory
The problem of assessing the quality of an operational forecasting system that produces probabilistic forecasts is addressed using information theory. A measure of the quality of the forecasting scheme, based on the amount of a data compression ...
Mark S. Roulston; Leonard A. Smith
Virtual Floe Ice Drift Forecast Model Intercomparison
Both sea ice forecast models and methods to measure their skill are needed for operational sea ice forecasting. Two simple sea ice models are described and tested here. Four different measures of skill are also tested. The forecasts from the ...
Robert W. Grumbine
Ensemble Cloud Model Applications to Forecasting Thunderstorms
A cloud model ensemble forecasting approach is developed to create forecasts that describe the range and distribution of thunderstorm lifetimes that may be expected to occur on a particular day. Such forecasts are crucial for anticipating severe ...
Kimberly L. Elmore; David J. Stensrud; Kenneth C. Crawford
The evolution of consensus in macroeconomic forecasting
When professional forecasters repeatedly forecast macroeconomic variables, their forecasts may converge over time towards a consensus. The evolution of consensus is analyzed with Blue Chip data under a parametric polynomial decay function that permits flexibility in the decay path. For the most part, this specification fits the data. We test whether forecast differences decay to zero at the same point in time for a panel of forecasters, and discuss possible explanations for this, along with its implications for studies using panels of forecasters.
Allan W. Gregory; James Yetman; Jel Codes C E; Robert Eggert; Fred Joutz
Background pollution forecast over bulgaria
Both, the current level of air pollution studies and social needs in the country, are in a stage mature enough for creating Bulgarian Chemical Weather Forecasting and Information System The system is foreseen to provide in real time forecast of the spatial/temporal ...
D. Syrakov; K. Ganev; M. Prodanova; N. Miloshev; G. Jordanov; E. Katragkou; D. Melas; A. Poupkou; K. Markakis
Frequency Dependence in Forecast Skill
A method is proposed to calculate measures of forecast skill for high, medium and low temporal frequency variations in the atmosphere. This method is applied to a series of 128 consecutive 1 to 10-day forecasts produced at NMC with their ...
H. M. van Den Dool; Suranjana Saha
Electricity price forecasting in a grid environment.
??Accurate electricity price forecasting is critical to market participants in wholesale electricity markets. Market participants rely on price forecasts to decide their bidding strategies, allocate� (more)
Li, Guang, 1974-
Improving Forecasting: A plea for historical retrospectives
Improving Forecasting: A plea for historical retrospectives Title Improving Forecasting: A plea for historical retrospectives Publication Type Journal Article Year of Publication...
Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation by Susan H. Holte In this paper, the Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting (OIAF) of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) evaluates the projections published in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO), (1) by comparing the projections from the Annual Energy Outlook 1982 through the Annual Energy Outlook 2001 with actual historical values. A set of major consumption, production, net import, price, economic, and carbon dioxide emissions variables are included in the evaluation, updating similar papers from previous years. These evaluations also present the reasons and rationales for significant differences. The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has been providing an
Title of Paper Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Title of Paper Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation by Susan H. Holte OIAF has been providing an evaluation of the forecasts in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) annually since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on that of the prior year by adding the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. However, the underlying reasons for deviations between the projections and realized history tend to be the same from one evaluation to the next. The most significant conclusions are: Natural gas has generally been the fuel with the least accurate forecasts of consumption, production, and prices. Natural gas was the last fossil fuel to be deregulated following the strong regulation of energy markets in the 1970s and early 1980s. Even after deregulation, the behavior
Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook - Household Expenditures Module
Household Expenditures Module Household Expenditures Module Assumption to the Annual Energy Outlook Household Expenditures Module Figure 5. United States Census Divisions. Having problems, call our National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800 for help. The Household Expenditures Module (HEM) constructs household energy expenditure profiles using historical survey data on household income, population and demographic characteristics, and consumption and expenditures for fuels for various end-uses. These data are combined with NEMS forecasts of household disposable income, fuel consumption, and fuel expenditures by end-use and household type. The HEM disaggregation algorithm uses these combined results to forecast household fuel consumption and expenditures by income quintile and Census Division (see
Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix D: Wholesale Electricity Price Forecast
Forecast Introduction................................................................... 16 The Base Case Forecast..................................................................... 16 Base Case Price Forecast
Quantitative Precipitation Forecast Techniques for Use in Hydrologic Forecasting
Quantitative hydrologic forecasting usually requires knowledge of the spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation. First, it is important to accurately measure the precipitation falling over a particular watershed of interest. Second, ...
Konstantine P. Georgakakos; Michael D. Hudlow
Load Forecast For use in Resource Adequacy
Load Forecast 2019 For use in Resource Adequacy Massoud Jourabchi #12;In today's presentation d l Load forecast methodology Drivers of the forecast f i Treatment of conservation Incorporating impact of weather Forecast for 2019 #12;Regional Loads (MWA and MW)Regional Loads (MWA and MW
Forecast Technical Document Felling and Removals
Forecast Technical Document Felling and Removals Forecasts A document describing how volume fellings and removals are handled in the 2011 Production Forecast system. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley Halsall #12;PF2011 Felling and removals forecasts Background A fellings and removals
CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST Volume 1: Statewide Electricity forecast is the combined product of the hard work and expertise of numerous staff members in the Demand the commercial sector forecast. Mehrzad Soltani Nia helped prepare the industrial forecast. Miguel Garcia
Combining forecast weights: Why and how?
This paper proposes a procedure called forecast weight averaging which is a specific combination of forecast weights obtained from different methods of constructing forecast weights for the purpose of improving the accuracy of pseudo out of sample forecasting. It is found that under certain specified conditions
Yip Chee Yin; Ng Kok-Haur; Lim Hock-Eam
PROBLEMS OF FORECAST1 Dmitry KUCHARAVY
1 PROBLEMS OF FORECAST1 Dmitry KUCHARAVY firstname.lastname@example.com Roland DE GUIO roland for the purpose of Innovative Design. First, a brief analysis of problems for existing forecasting methods of the forecast errors. Second, using a contradiction analysis, a set of problems related to technology forecast
Using reforecasts for probabilistic forecast calibration
1 Using reforecasts for probabilistic forecast calibration Tom Hamill NOAA Earth System Research that is currently operational. #12;3 Why compute reforecasts? · For many forecast problems, such as long-lead forecasts or high-precipitation events, a few past forecasts may be insufficient for calibrating
Assessing Forecast Accuracy Measures Department of Economics
Assessing Forecast Accuracy Measures Zhuo Chen Department of Economics Heady Hall 260 Iowa State forecast accuracy measures. In the theoretical direction, for comparing two forecasters, only when the errors are stochastically ordered, the ranking of the forecasts is basically independent of the form
Current status of ForecastCurrent status of Forecast 2005 EPACT is in the model
1 1 Current status of ForecastCurrent status of Forecast 2005 EPACT is in the model 2007 Federal prices are being inputted into the model 2 Sales forecast Select yearsSales forecast Select years --Draft 0.53% Irrigation 2.76% Annual Growth Rates Preliminary Electricity ForecastAnnual Growth Rates
Can earnings forecasts be improved by taking into account the forecast bias?
Can earnings forecasts be improved by taking into account the forecast bias? François DOSSOU allow the calculation of earnings adjusted forecasts, for horizons from 1 to 24 months. We explain variables. From the forecast evaluation statistics viewpoints, the adjusted forecasts make it possible quasi
Forecast Energy | Open Energy Information
Forecast Energy Forecast Energy Jump to: navigation, search Name Forecast Energy Address 2320 Marinship Way, Suite 300 Place Sausalito, California Zip 94965 Sector Services Product Intelligent Monitoring and Forecasting Services Year founded 2010 Number of employees 11-50 Company Type For profit Website http://www.forecastenergy.net Coordinates 37.865647°, -122.496315° Loading map... {"minzoom":false,"mappingservice":"googlemaps3","type":"ROADMAP","zoom":14,"types":["ROADMAP","SATELLITE","HYBRID","TERRAIN"],"geoservice":"google","maxzoom":false,"width":"600px","height":"350px","centre":false,"title":"","label":"","icon":"","visitedicon":"","lines":[],"polygons":[],"circles":[],"rectangles":[],"copycoords":false,"static":false,"wmsoverlay":"","layers":[],"controls":["pan","zoom","type","scale","streetview"],"zoomstyle":"DEFAULT","typestyle":"DEFAULT","autoinfowindows":false,"kml":[],"gkml":[],"fusiontables":[],"resizable":false,"tilt":0,"kmlrezoom":false,"poi":true,"imageoverlays":[],"markercluster":false,"searchmarkers":"","locations":[{"text":"","title":"","link":null,"lat":37.865647,"lon":-122.496315,"alt":0,"address":"","icon":"","group":"","inlineLabel":"","visitedicon":""}]}
Value of Wind Power Forecasting
This study, building on the extensive models developed for the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study (WWSIS), uses these WECC models to evaluate the operating cost impacts of improved day-ahead wind forecasts.
Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Jordan, G.; Piwko, R.
Fuzzy forecasting with DNA computing
There are many forecasting techniques including: exponential smoothing, ARIMA model, GARCH model, neural networks and genetic algorithm, etc. Since financial time series may be influenced by many factors, conventional model based techniques and hard ...
Don Jyh-Fu Jeng; Junzo Watada; Berlin Wu; Jui-Yu Wu
Sampling Errors in Seasonal Forecasting
The limited numbers of start dates and ensemble sizes in seasonal forecasts lead to sampling errors in predictions. Defining the magnitude of these sampling errors would be useful for end users as well as informing decisions on resource ...
Stephen Cusack; Alberto Arribas
Scoring Rules for Forecast Verification
The problem of probabilistic forecast verification is approached from a theoretical point of view starting from three basic desiderata: additivity, exclusive dependence on physical observations (�locality�), and strictly proper behavior. By ...
Riccardo Benedetti
Wavelets and Field Forecast Verification
Current field forecast verification measures are inadequate, primarily because they compress the comparison between two complex spatial field processes into one number. Discrete wavelet transforms (DWTs) applied to analysis and contemporaneous ...
William M. Briggs; Richard A. Levine
Richardson's Barotropic Forecast: A Reappraisal
To elucidate his numerical technique and to examine the effectiveness of geostrophic initial winds, Lewis Fry Richardson carried out an idealized forecast using the linear shallow-water equations and simple analytical pressure and velocity ...
Peter Lynch
Downscaling Extended Weather Forecasts for Hydrologic Prediction
Weather and climate forecasts are critical inputs to hydrologic forecasting systems. The National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) issues 8-15 days outlook daily for the U.S. based on the Medium Range Forecast (MRF) model, which is a global model applied at about 2? spatial resolution. Because of the relatively coarse spatial resolution, weather forecasts produced by the MRF model cannot be applied directly to hydrologic forecasting models that require high spatial resolution to represent land surface hydrology. A mesoscale atmospheric model was used to dynamically downscale the 1-8 day extended global weather forecasts to test the feasibility of hydrologic forecasting through this model nesting approach. Atmospheric conditions of each 8-day forecast during the period 1990-2000 were used to provide initial and boundary conditions for the mesoscale model to produce an 8-day atmospheric forecast for the western U.S. at 30 km spatial resolution. To examine the impact of initialization of the land surface state on forecast skill, two sets of simulations were performed with the land surface state initialized based on the global forecasts versus land surface conditions from a continuous mesoscale simulation driven by the NCEP reanalysis. Comparison of the skill of the global and downscaled precipitation forecasts in the western U.S. showed higher skill for the downscaled forecasts at all precipitation thresholds and increasingly larger differences at the larger thresholds. Analyses of the surface temperature forecasts show that the mesoscale forecasts generally reduced the root-mean-square error by about 1.5 C compared to the global forecasts, because of the much better resolved topography at 30 km spatial resolution. In addition, initialization of the land surface states has large impacts on the temperature forecasts, but not the precipitation forecasts. The improvements in forecast skill using downscaling could be potentially significant for improving hydrologic forecasts for managing river basins.
Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Qian, Yun
Light truck forecasts
The recent dramatic increase in the number of light trucks (109% between 1963 and 1974) has prompted concern about the energy consequences of the growing popularity of the light truck. An estimate of the future number of light trucks is considered to be a reasonable first step in assessing the energy impact of these vehicles. The monograph contains forecasts based on two models and six scenarios. The coefficients for the models have been derived by ordinary least squares regression of national level time series data. The first model is a two stage model. The first stage estimates the number of light trucks and cars (together), and the second stage applies a share's submodel to determine the number of light trucks. The second model is a simultaneous equation model. The two models track one another remarkably well, within about 2%. The scenarios were chosen to be consistent with those used in the Lindsey-Kaufman study Projection of Light Truck Population to Year 2025. Except in the case of the most dismal economic scenario, the number of light trucks is expected to increase from the 1974 level of 0.09 light truck per person to about 0.12 light truck per person in 1995.
Liepins, G.E.
The Potential Impact of Using Persistence as a Reference Forecast on Perceived Forecast Skill
Skill is defined as actual forecast performance relative to the performance of a reference forecast. It is shown that the choice of reference (e.g., random or persistence) can affect the perceived performance of the forecast system. Two scores, ...
Marion P. Mittermaier
Evaluation of Wave Forecasts Consistent with Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Wind Forecasts
An algorithm to generate wave fields consistent with forecasts from the official U.S. tropical cyclone forecast centers has been made available in near�real time to forecasters since summer 2007. The algorithm removes the tropical cyclone from ...
Charles R. Sampson; Paul A. Wittmann; Efren A. Serra; Hendrik L. Tolman; Jessica Schauer; Timothy Marchok
Weather forecasting : the next generation : the potential use and implementation of ensemble forecasting
This thesis discusses ensemble forecasting, a promising new weather forecasting technique, from various viewpoints relating not only to its meteorological aspects but also to its user and policy aspects. Ensemble forecasting ...
Goto, Susumu
The Complex Relationship between Forecast Skill and Forecast Value: A Real-World Analysis
For routine forecasts of temperature and precipitation, the relative skill advantage of human forecasters with respect to the numerical�statistical guidance is small (and diminishing). Since the relationship between forecast skill and the value ...
Paul J. Roebber; Lance F. Bosart
Quantification of Uncertainity in Fire-Weather Forecasts: Some Results of Operational and Experimental Forecasting Programs
Fire-weather forecasts (FWFs) prepared by National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters on an operational basis are traditionally expressed in categorical terms. However, to make rational and optimal use of such forecasts, fire managers need ...
Barbara G. Brown; Allan H. Murphy
Ability to Forecast Regional Soil Moisture with a Distributed Hydrological Model Using ECMWF Rainfall Forecasts
This study mimics an online forecast system to provide nine day-ahead forecasts of regional soil moisture. It uses modified ensemble rainfall forecasts from the numerical weather prediction model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ...
J. M. Schuurmans; M. F. P. Bierkens
Spatial Structure, Forecast Errors, and Predictability of the South Asian Monsoon in CFS Monthly Retrospective Forecasts
The spatial structure of the boreal summer South Asian monsoon in the ensemble mean of monthly retrospective forecasts by the Climate Forecast System of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction is examined. The forecast errors and ...
Hae-Kyung Lee Drbohlav; V. Krishnamurthy
What Is a Good Forecast? An Essay on the Nature of Goodness in Weather Forecasting
Differences of opinion exist among forecasters�and between forecasters and users�regarding the meaning of the phrase �good (bad) weather forecasts.� These differences of opinion are fueled by a lack of clarity and/or understanding concerning the ...
Allan H. Murphy
International Energy Module
This page intentionally left blank This page intentionally left blank 23 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2011 International Energy Module The NEMS International Energy Module (IEM) simulates the interaction between U.S. and global petroleum markets. It uses assumptions of economic growth and expectations of future U.S. and world crude-like liquids production and consumption to estimate the effects of changes in U.S. liquid fuels markets on the international petroleum market. For each year of the forecast, the NEMS IEM computes world oil prices, provides a supply curve of world crude-like liquids, generates a worldwide oil supply- demand balance with regional detail, and computes quantities of crude oil and light and heavy petroleum products imported into
2 2 International Energy Module The NEMS International Energy Module (IEM) simulates the interaction between U.S. and global petroleum markets. It uses assumptions of economic growth and expectations of future U.S. and world crude-like liquids production and consumption to estimate the effects of changes in U.S. liquid fuels markets on the international petroleum market. For each year of the forecast, the NEMS IEM computes oil prices, provides a supply curve of world crude-like liquids, generates a worldwide oil supply- demand balance with regional detail, and computes quantities of crude oil and light and heavy petroleum products imported into the United States by export region. Changes in the oil price (WTI), which is defined as the price of light, low-sulfur crude oil delivered to Cushing, Oklahoma in
Base Resource Forecasts - Power Marketing - Sierra Nevada Region...
Marketing > Base Resource Forecasts Base Resource Forecasts Note: Annual, rolling (monthly for 12 months), base resource forecasts are posted when they become available. Annual...
Forecasting new product penetration with flexible substitution patterns
choice model for forecasting demand for alternative-fuel7511, Urban Travel Demand Forecasting Project, Institute of89 (1999) 109�129 Forecasting new product penetration with ?
Brownstone, David; Train, Kenneth
Overestimation Reduction in Forecasting Telecommuting as a TDM Policy
M. , Ethics and advocacy in forecasting for public policy.change and social forecasting: the case of telecommuting asOverestimation Reduction in Forecasting Telecommuting as a
Tal, Gil
Forecasting US CO2 Emissions Using State-Level Data
F. Hendry (eds), Economic Forecasting, Blackwell Publishing,W. : 2002, Macroeconomic forecasting using di?usion indexes,2003, Macroeconomic forecasting in the euro area: Country
Steinhauser, Ralf; Auffhammer, Maximilian
NoVaS Transformations: Flexible Inference for Volatility Forecasting
and Correlation Forecasting� in G. Elliott, C.W.J.Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Amsterdam: North-Holland,Transformations�, forthcoming in Forecasting in the Presence
Politis, Dimitris N; Thomakos, Dimitrios D
7511, Urban Travel Demand Forecasting Project, Institute ofchoice model for forecasting demand for alternative-fuel89 (1999) 109�129 Forecasting new product penetration with
Earthquake Forecasting in Diverse Tectonic Zones of the Globe
Long-term probabilistic forecasting of earthquakes, J.2000), Probabilistic forecasting of earthquakes, Geophys. J.F.F. (2006), The EEPAS forecasting model and the probability
Kagan, Y. Y.; Jackson, D. D.
Ensemble-based methods for forecasting census in hospital units
P, Fitzgerald G: Regression forecasting of patient admissionapproach to modeling and forecasting demand in the emergencySJ, Haug PJ, Snow GL: Forecasting daily patient volumes in
Koestler, Devin C; Ombao, Hernando; Bender, Jesse
Forecasting Danerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications of Ensemble Statistical Procedures
costs could alter forecasting skill and the predictors thatForecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications ofOn-Line Working Paper Series Forecasting Dangerous Inmate
Berk, Richard A.; Kriegler, Brian; Baek, John-Ho
Developing a Practical Forecasting Screener for Domestic Violence Incidents
Developing a Practical Forecasting Screener for Domesticcomplicated did not improve forecasting skill. Taking thethe local costs of forecasting errors. It is also feasible
Richard A. Berk; Susan B. Sorenson; Yan He
Forecasting with Dynamic Microsimulation: Design, Implementation, and Demonstration
Goulias Page 84 Forecasting with Dynamic Microsimulation:Goulias Page 80 Forecasting with Dynamic Microsimulation:L. Demographic Forecasting with a Dynamic Stochastic
Ravulaparthy, Srinath; Goulias, Konstadinos G.
Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation-Table 1
Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (EIA)
Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation > Table 1 Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Table 1. Comparison of Absolute Percent Errors for AEO Forecast Evaluation, 1996 to...
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION FINAL DEMAND FORECAST FORMS AND INSTRUCTIONS FOR THE 2007 INTEGRATED Table of Contents General Instructions for Demand Forecast Submittals.............................................................................. 4 Protocols for Submitted Demand Forecasts
Solar Energy Market Forecast | Open Energy Information
Solar Energy Market Forecast Solar Energy Market Forecast Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Solar Energy Market Forecast Agency/Company /Organization: United States Department of Energy Sector: Energy Focus Area: Solar Topics: Market analysis, Technology characterizations Resource Type: Publications Website: giffords.house.gov/DOE%20Perspective%20on%20Solar%20Market%20Evolution References: Solar Energy Market Forecast[1] Summary " Energy markets / forecasts DOE Solar America Initiative overview Capital market investments in solar Solar photovoltaic (PV) sector overview PV prices and costs PV market evolution Market evolution considerations Balance of system costs Silicon 'normalization' Solar system value drivers Solar market forecast Additional resources"
PDSF Modules
Modules Modules Modules Modules Approach to Managing The Environment Modules is a system which you can use to specify what software you want to use. If you want to use a particular software package loading its module will take care of the details of modifying your environment as necessary. The advantage of the modules approach is that the you are not required to explicitly specify paths for different executable versions and try to keep their related man paths and environment variables coordinated. Instead you simply "load" and "unload" specific modules to control your environment. Getting Started with Modules If you're using the standard startup files on PDSF then you're already setup for using modules. If the "module" command is not available, please
Annual Energy Outlook 2001-Appendix G: Major Assumptions for the Forecasts
Forecasts Forecasts Summary of the AEO2001 Cases/ Scenarios - Appendix Table G1 bullet1.gif (843 bytes) Model Results (Formats - PDF, ZIP) - Appendix Tables - Reference Case - 1998 to 2020 bullet1.gif (843 bytes) Download Report - Entire AEO2001 (PDF) - AEO2001 by Chapters (PDF) bullet1.gif (843 bytes) Acronyms bullet1.gif (843 bytes) Contacts Related Links bullet1.gif (843 bytes) Assumptions to the AEO2001 bullet1.gif (843 bytes) Supplemental Data to the AEO2001 (Only available on the Web) - Regional and more detailed AEO 2001 Reference Case Results - 1998, 2000 to 2020 bullet1.gif (843 bytes) NEMS Conference bullet1.gif (843 bytes) Forecast Homepage bullet1.gif (843 bytes) EIA Homepage Appendix G Major Assumptions for the Forecasts Component Modules Major Assumptions for the Annual Energy Outlook 2001
by by Esmeralda Sanchez The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has been providing an evaluation of the forecasts in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) annually since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on that of the prior year by adding the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. However, the underlying reasons for deviations between the projections and realized history tend to be the same from one evaluation to the next. The most significant conclusions are: * Over the last two decades, there have been many significant changes in laws, policies, and regulations that could not have been anticipated and were not assumed in the projections prior to their implementation. Many of these actions have had significant impacts on energy supply, demand, and prices; however, the
A Review of Numerical Forecast Guidance for Hurricane Hugo
Numerical forecast guidance for Hurricane Hugo from the National Meteorological Center is examined, as well as forecasts from the European Center for Medium Range Forecasting and the United Kingdom Meteorological Office. No one forecast product ...
John H. Ward
Short-Range Ensemble Forecasts of Precipitation Type
Short-range ensemble forecasting is extended to a critical winter weather problem: forecasting precipitation type. Forecast soundings from the operational NCEP Short-Range Ensemble Forecast system are combined with five precipitation-type ...
Matthew S. Wandishin; Michael E. Baldwin; Steven L. Mullen; John V. Cortinas Jr.
Summary Verification Measures and Their Interpretation for Ensemble Forecasts
Ensemble prediction systems produce forecasts that represent the probability distribution of a continuous forecast variable. Most often, the verification problem is simplified by transforming the ensemble forecast into probability forecasts for ...
A. Allen Bradley; Stuart S. Schwartz
Using Customers' Reported Forecasts to Predict Future Sales
Using Customers' Reported Forecasts to Predict Future Sales Nihat Altintas , Alan Montgomery orders using forecasts provided by their customers. Our goal is to improve the supplier's operations through a better un- derstanding of the customers's forecast behavior. Unfortunately, customer forecasts
Murphy, Robert F.
The Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting System (ATCF)
The U.S. Navy Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting System (ATCF) is an IBM-AT compatible software package developed for the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), Guam. ATCF is designed to assist forecasters with the process of making tropical ...
Ronald J. Miller; Ann J. Schrader; Charles R. Sampson; Ted L. Tsui
Evaluation of LFM-2 Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts
The results of a near real time experiment designed to assess the state of the art of quantitative precipitation forecasting skill of the operational NMC LFM-2 are described. All available LFM-2 quantitative precipitation forecasts were verified ...
Forecaster Workstation Design: Concepts and Issues
Some basic ideas about designing a meteorological workstation for operational weather forecasting are presented, in part as a complement to the recently published discussion of workstation design by R. R. Hoffman. Scientific weather forecasting ...
Charles A. Doswell III
Performance of Recent Multimodel ENSO Forecasts
The performance of the International Research Institute for Climate and Society �ENSO forecast plume� during the 2002�11 period is evaluated using deterministic and probabilistic verification measures. The plume includes multiple model forecasts ...
Michael K. Tippett; Anthony G. Barnston; Shuhua Li
Local Forecast Communication In The Altiplano
Forecasts play an important role in planting decisions for Andean peasant producers. Predictions of the upcoming cropping season determine when, where, and what farmers will plant. This research looks at the sources of forecast information used ...
Jere L. Gilles; Corinne Valdivia
Bayesian Model Verification of NWP Ensemble Forecasts
Forecasts of convective precipitation have large uncertainties. To consider the forecast uncertainties of convection-permitting models, a convection-permitting ensemble prediction system (EPS) based on the Consortium for Small-scale Modeling (...
Andreas R�pnack; Andreas Hense; Christoph Gebhardt; Detlev Majewski
Economic and Statistical Measures of Forecast Accuracy
This paper argues in favour of a closer link between decision and forecast evaluation problems. Although the idea of using decision theory for forecast evaluation appears early in the dynamic stochastic programming literature, and has continued...
Granger, Clive W J; Pesaran, M Hashem
2013 Midyear Economic Forecast Sponsorship Opportunity
2013 Midyear Economic Forecast Sponsorship Opportunity Thursday, April 18, 2013, Hyatt Regency Irvine 11:30 a.m. 1:30 p.m. Dr. Anil Puri presents his annual Midyear Economic Forecast addressing
de Lijser, Peter
Forecasting consumer products using prediction markets
Prediction Markets hold the promise of improving the forecasting process. Research has shown that Prediction Markets can develop more accurate forecasts than polls or experts. Our research concentrated on analyzing Prediction ...
Trepte, Kai
Probabilistic Visibility Forecasting Using Bayesian Model Averaging
Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is a statistical postprocessing technique that has been used in probabilistic weather forecasting to calibrate forecast ensembles and generate predictive probability density functions (PDFs) for weather quantities. ...
Richard M. Chmielecki; Adrian E. Raftery
Intercomparison of Spatial Forecast Verification Methods
Advancements in weather forecast models and their enhanced resolution have led to substantially improved and more realistic-appearing forecasts for some variables. However, traditional verification scores often indicate poor performance because ...
Eric Gilleland; David Ahijevych; Barbara G. Brown; Barbara Casati; Elizabeth E. Ebert
Forecasting with Reference to a Specific Climatology
Seasonal forecasts are most commonly issued as anomalies with respect to some multiyear reference period. However, different seasonal forecasting centers use different reference periods. This paper shows that for near-surface temperature, ...
Emily Wallace; Alberto Arribas
Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts for River Basins
A methodology has been formulated to aid a field forecaster in preparing probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) for river basins. The format of probabilistic QPF is designed to meet three requirements: (i) it is compatible with ...
Roman Krzysztofowicz; William J. Drzal; Theresa Rossi Drake; James C. Weyman; Louis A. Giordano
A General Framework for Forecast Verification
A general framework for forecast verification based on the joint distribution of forecasts and observations is described. For further elaboration of the framework, two factorizations of the joint distribution are investigated: 1) the calibration-...
Allan H. Murphy; Robert L. Winkler
Antarctic Satellite Meteorology: Applications for Weather Forecasting
For over 30 years, weather forecasting for the Antarctic continent and adjacent Southern Ocean has relied on weather satellites. Significant advancements in forecasting skill have come via the weather satellite. The advent of the high-resolution ...
Matthew A. Lazzara; Linda M. Keller; Charles R. Stearns; Jonathan E. Thom; George A. Weidner
Value from Ambiguity in Ensemble Forecasts
This study explores the objective application of ambiguity information, that is, the uncertainty in forecast probability derived from an ensemble. One application approach, called uncertainty folding, merges ambiguity with forecast uncertainty ...
Mark S. Allen; F. Anthony Eckel
Management of supply chain: an alternative modelling technique for forecasting
Forecasting is a necessity almost in any operation. However, the tools of forecasting are still primitive in view
Datta, Shoumen
Improving week two forecasts with multi-model re-forecast ensembles
Improving week two forecasts with multi-model re-forecast ensembles Jeffrey S. Whitaker and Xue Wei NOAA-CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center, Boulder, CO Fr´ed´eric Vitart Seasonal Forecasting Group, ECMWF dataset of ensemble 're-forecasts' from a single model can significantly improve the skill
Whitaker, Jeffrey S.
Forecasting for energy and chemical decision analysis
This paper focuses on uncertainty and bias in forecasts used for major energy and chemical investment decisions. Probability methods for characterizing uncertainty in the forecast are reviewed. Sources of forecasting bias are classified based on the results of relevant psychology research. Examples are drawn from the energy and chemical industry to illustrate the value of explicit characterization of uncertainty and reduction of bias in forecasts.
Cazalet, E.G.
A Rank Approach to Equity Forecast Construction
that are fit for their purpose; for example, returningaggregate county and sector forecasts that are consistent by construction....
Satchell, Stephen E; Wright, Stephen M
Forecasting Techniques Utilized by the Forecast Branch of the National Meteorological Center During a Major Convective Rainfall Event
Meteorologists within the Forecast Branch (FB) of the National Meteorological Center (NMC) produce operational quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs). These manual forecasts are prepared utilizing various forecasting techniques, which are ...
Theodore W. Funk
Application of Forecast Verification Science to Operational River Forecasting in the U.S. National Weather Service
Forecast verification in operational hydrology has been very limited to date, mainly due to the complexity of verifying both forcing input forecasts and hydrologic forecasts on multiple space�time scales. However, forecast verification needs to ...
Julie Demargne; Mary Mullusky; Kevin Werner; Thomas Adams; Scott Lindsey; Noreen Schwein; William Marosi; Edwin Welles
Load Forecasting for Modern Distribution Systems
Load forecasting is a fundamental activity for numerous organizations and activities within a utility, including planning, operations, and control. Transmission and Distribution (T&D) planning and design engineers use the load forecast to determine whether any changes and additions are needed to the electric system to satisfy the anticipated load. Other load forecast users include system operations, financial ...
Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast For
Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast For West Virginia: 2011 Update Prepared for the West December 2011 © Copyright 2011 WVU Research Corporation #12;#12;W.Va. Consensus Coal Forecast Update 2011 i Table of Contents Executive Summary 1 Recent Developments 3 Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast
Modeling and Forecasting Electric Daily Peak Loads
Forecast Update As part of the Mid Term Assessment, staff is preparing a long term wholesale electricity 29, 2012 Preliminary Results of the Electricity Price Forecast Update As part of the Mid Term Assessment, staff is preparing a long term wholesale electricity market price forecast. A summary of the work
Abdel-Aal, Radwan E.
CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 FINAL FORECAST Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand in this report. #12;i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The demand forecast is the combined product of the hard work to the contributing authors listed previously, Mohsen Abrishami prepared the commercial sector forecast. Mehrzad
CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 REVISED FORECAST Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand in this report. #12;i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The demand forecast is the combined product of the hard work listed previously, Mohsen Abrishami prepared the commercial sector forecast. Mehrzad Soltani Nia helped
REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022 Volume 2: Electricity Demand by Utility ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The staff demand forecast is the combined product of the hard work and expertise of numerous, Mohsen Abrishami prepared the commercial sector forecast. Mehrzad Soltani Nia helped prepare
REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022 Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand in this report. #12;i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The staff demand forecast is the combined product of the hard work listed previously, Mohsen Abrishami prepared the commercial sector forecast. Mehrzad Soltani Nia helped
Load forecast and treatment of conservation
Load forecast and treatment of conservation July 28th 2010 Resource Adequacy Technical Committee conservation is implicitly incorporated in the short-term demand forecast? #12;3 Incorporating conservation in the short-term model Our short-term model is an econometric model which can not explicitly forecast
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION FINAL STAFF FORECAST OF 2008 PEAK DEMAND STAFFREPORT June 2007 CEC-200 of the information in this paper. #12;Abstract This document describes staff's final forecast of 2008 peak demand demand forecasts for the respective territories of the state's three investor-owned utilities (IOUs
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION STAFF FORECAST: AVERAGE RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICES 2005 TO 2018 report, Staff Forecast: Retail Electricity Prices, 2005 to 2018, was prepared with contributions from the technical assistance provided by Greg Broeking of R.W. Beck, Inc. in preparing retail price forecasts
Blue Chip Consensus US GDP Forecast
and metro area from Moody�s Economy.com Equivalent to US-level Gross Domestic Product ? The GMP forecasts have a large impact on the peak load forecasts Rule of thumb: 1 % growth in RTO GMP ? approx. 1,000 MW growth in forecast RTO peak load
James F. Wilson
5, 183218, 2008 A rainfall forecast
HESSD 5, 183218, 2008 A rainfall forecast model using Artificial Neural Network N. Q. Hung et al An artificial neural network model for rainfall forecasting in Bangkok, Thailand N. Q. Hung, M. S. Babel, S Geosciences Union. 183 #12;HESSD 5, 183218, 2008 A rainfall forecast model using Artificial Neural Network N
System Demonstration Multilingual Weather Forecast Generation System
System Demonstration Multilingual Weather Forecast Generation System Tianfang Yao DongmoZhang Qian (Multilingual Weather Forecasts Assistant) system will be demonstrated. It is developed to generate the multilingual text of the weather forecasts automatically. The raw data from the weather observation can be used
(1) Ensemble forecast calibration & (2) using reforecasts
1 (1) Ensemble forecast calibration & (2) using reforecasts Tom Hamill NOAA Earth System Research · Calibration: ; the statistical adjustment of the (ensemble) forecast Rationale 1: Infer large-sample probabilities from small ensemble. Rationale 2: Remove bias, increase forecast reliability while preserving
Analysis Papers > Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Analysis Papers > Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Release Date: February 2005 Next Release Date: February 2006 Printer-friendly version Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation* Table 1.Comparison of Absolute Percent Errors for Present and Current AEO Forecast Evaluations Printer Friendly Version Average Absolute Percent Error Variable AEO82 to AEO99 AEO82 to AEO2000 AEO82 to AEO2001 AEO82 to AEO2002 AEO82 to AEO2003 AEO82 to AEO2004 Consumption Total Energy Consumption 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 Total Petroleum Consumption 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.9 Total Natural Gas Consumption 7.3 7.1 7.1 6.7 6.4 6.5 Total Coal Consumption 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 Total Electricity Sales 1.9 2.0 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 Production Crude Oil Production 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.7
Price forecasting for notebook computers
This paper proposes a four-step approach that uses statistical regression to forecast notebook computer prices. Notebook computer price is related to constituent features over a series of time periods, and the rates of change in the influence of individual features are estimated. A time series analysis is used to forecast and can be used, for example, to forecast (1) notebook computer price at introduction, and (2) rate of price erosion for a notebook's life cycle. Results indicate that this approach can forecast the price of a notebook computer up to four months in advance of its introduction with an average error of under 10% and the rate of price erosion to within 10% of the price for seven months after introduction-the length of the typical life cycle of a notebook. Since all data are publicly available, this approach can be used to assist managerial decision making in the notebook computer industry, for example, in determining when and how to upgrade a model and when to introduce a new model.
Rutherford, Derek Paul
Evaluation Evaluation Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation by Esmeralda Sanchez The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has been providing an evaluation of the forecasts in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) annually since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on that of the prior year by adding the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. However, the underlying reasons for deviations between the projections and realized history tend to be the same from one evaluation to the next. The most significant conclusions are: Over the last two decades, there have been many significant changes in laws, policies, and regulations that could not have been anticipated and were not assumed in the projections prior to their implementation. Many of these actions have had significant impacts on energy supply, demand, and prices; however, the impacts were not incorporated in the AEO projections until their enactment or effective dates in accordance with EIA's requirement to remain policy neutral and include only current laws and regulations in the AEO reference case projections.
How Do You Like Your Weather?: Using Weather Forecast Data to Improve Short-Term Load Forecasts
This document provides a quick overview of weather forecasts as a data issue in the development of electricity demand forecasts. These are three sections in this Brief: o reasons behind the rise in interest in using weather forecasts in electricity forecasting models, o an overview of what some utilities are doing to evaluate weather forecasts, and o a resource list of weather forecast providers.
Essays on macroeconomics and forecasting
This dissertation consists of three essays. Chapter II uses the method of structural factor analysis to study the effects of monetary policy on key macroeconomic variables in a data rich environment. I propose two structural factor models. One is the structural factor augmented vector autoregressive (SFAVAR) model and the other is the structural factor vector autoregressive (SFVAR) model. Compared to the traditional vector autogression (VAR) model, both models incorporate far more information from hundreds of data series, series that can be and are monitored by the Central Bank. Moreover, the factors used are structurally meaningful, a feature that adds to the understanding of the ��?black box� of the monetary transmission mechanism. Both models generate qualitatively reasonable impulse response functions. Using the SFVAR model, both the ��?price puzzle� and the ��?liquidity puzzle� are eliminated. Chapter III employs the method of structural factor analysis to conduct a forecasting exercise in a data rich environment. I simulate out-of-sample real time forecasting using a structural dynamic factor forecasting model and its variations. I use several structural factors to summarize the information from a large set of candidate explanatory variables. Compared to Stock and Watson (2002)��?s models, the models proposed in this chapter can further allow me to select the factors structurally for each variable to be forecasted. I find advantages to using the structural dynamic factor forecasting models compared to alternatives that include univariate autoregression (AR) model, the VAR model and Stock and Watson��?s (2002) models, especially when forecasting real variables. In chapter IV, we measure U.S. technology shocks by implementing a dual approach, which is based on more reliable price data instead of aggregate quantity data. By doing so, we find the relative volatility of technology shocks and the correlation between output fluctuation and technology shocks to be much smaller than those revealed in most real-business-cycle (RBC) studies. Our results support the findings of Burnside, Eichenbaum and Rebelo (1996), who showed that the correlation between technology shocks and output is exaggerated in the RBC literature. This suggests that one should examine other sources of fluctuations for a better understanding of the business cycle phenomena.
Liu, Dandan
Critical Operating Constraint Forecasting (COCF)
This document represents the progress report and Task 1 letter report of the California Institute for Energy and Environment (CIEE) contract funded by the California Energy Commission (CEC), Critical Operating Constraint Forecasting (COCF) for California Independent System Operator (CAISO) Planning Phase. Task 1 was to accomplish the following items: Collect data from CAISO to set up the WECC power flow base case representing the CAISO system in the summer of 2006 Run TRACE for maximizing California Impo...
Forecasting Techniques The Use of Hourly Model-Generated Soundings to Forecast Mesoscale Phenomena. Part I: Initial Assessment in Forecasting Warm-Season Phenomena
Since late 1995, NCEP has made available to forecasters hourly model guidance at selected sites in the form of vertical profiles of various forecast fields. These profiles provide forecasters with increased temporal resolution and greater ...
Robert E. Hart; Gregory S. Forbes; Richard H. Grumm
Module Configuration
A stand alone battery module including: (a) a mechanical configuration; (b) a thermal management configuration; (c) an electrical connection configuration; and (d) an electronics configuration. Such a module is fully interchangeable in a battery pack assembly, mechanically, from the thermal management point of view, and electrically. With the same hardware, the module can accommodate different cell sizes and, therefore, can easily have different capacities. The module structure is designed to accommodate the electronics monitoring, protection, and printed wiring assembly boards (PWAs), as well as to allow airflow through the module. A plurality of modules may easily be connected together to form a battery pack. The parts of the module are designed to facilitate their manufacture and assembly.
Oweis, Salah (Ellicott City, MD); D' Ussel, Louis (Bordeaux, FR); Chagnon, Guy (Cockeysville, MD); Zuhowski, Michael (Annapolis, MD); Sack, Tim (Cockeysville, MD); Laucournet, Gaullume (Paris, FR); Jackson, Edward J. (Taneytown, MD)
Meese-Rogoff redux: Micro-based exchange-rate forecasting
Johnatban. "Exchange Rate Forecasting: The Errors We'veBased Exchange-Rate Forecasting By MARTIN D . D . EVANS ANDon longer-horizon forecasting, we examine forecasting over
Evans, MDD; Lyons, Richard K.
The Past as Prologue? Business Cycles and Forecasting since the 1960s
Forecasters,� Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 28, No. 2, Mar,of Macroeconomic Forecasting� Journal of Macroeconomics,of Federal Reserve Forecasting,� Journal of Macroeconomics,
Bardhan, Ashok Deo; Hicks, Daniel; Kroll, Cynthia A.; Yu, Tiffany
Material World: Forecasting Household Appliance Ownership in a Growing Global Economy
and V. Letschert (2005). Forecasting Electricity Demand in8364 Material World: Forecasting Household ApplianceMcNeil, 2008). Forecasting Diffusion Forecasting Variables
Letschert, Virginie
Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook - Residential Demand Module
Residential Demand Module Residential Demand Module Assumption to the Annual Energy Outlook Residential Demand Module The NEMS Residential Demand Module forecasts future residential sector energy requirements based on projections of the number of households and the stock, efficiency, and intensity of use of energy-consuming equipment. The Residential Demand Module projections begin with a base year estimates of the housing stock, the types and numbers of energy-consuming appliances servicing the stock, and the unit energy consumption by appliance (or UECin million Btu per household per year). The projection process adds new housing units to the stock, determines the equipment installed in new units, retires existing housing units, and retires and replaces appliances. The primary exogenous drivers for the module are housing starts by type (single-family, multifamily and mobile homes) and Census Division and prices for each energy source for each of the nine Census Divisions (see Figure 5). The Residential Demand Module also requires projections of available equipment and their installed costs over the forecast horizon. Over time, equipment efficiency tends to increase because of general technological advances and also because of Federal and/or state efficiency standards. As energy prices and available equipment changes over the forecast horizon, the module includes projected changes to the type and efficiency of equipment purchased as well as projected changes in the usage intensity of the equipment stock.
Mathematical and computer modelling reports: Modeling and forecasting energy markets with the intermediate future forecasting system
This paper describes the Intermediate Future Forecasting System (IFFS), which is the model used to forecast integrated energy markets by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The model contains representations of supply and demand for all of the ...
Frederic H. Murphy; John J. Conti; Susan H. Shaw; Reginald Sanders
BMA Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting over the Huaihe Basin Using TIGGE Multi-model Ensemble Forecasts
Bayesian model averaging (BMA) probability quantitative precipitation forecast (PQPF) models were established by calibrating their parameters using one- to seven-day ensemble forecasts of 24-hour accumulated precipitation, and observations from 43 ...
Jianguo Liu; Zhenghui Xie
Using National Air Quality Forecast Guidance to Develop Local Air Quality Index Forecasts
The National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC) currently provides next-day forecasts of ozone concentrations over the contiguous United States. It was developed collaboratively by NOAA and Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in order to ...
Brian Eder; Daiwen Kang; S. Trivikrama Rao; Rohit Mathur; Shaocai Yu; Tanya Otte; Ken Schere; Richard Wayland; Scott Jackson; Paula Davidson; Jeff McQueen; George Bridgers
Role of Retrospective Forecasts of GCMs Forced with Persisted SST Anomalies in Operational Streamflow Forecasts Development
Seasonal streamflow forecasts contingent on climate information are essential for water resources planning and management as well as for setting up contingency measures during extreme years. In this study, operational streamflow forecasts are ...
A. Sankarasubramanian; Upmanu Lall; Susan Espinueva
Evaluation of MJO Forecast Skill from Several Statistical and Dynamical Forecast Models
This work examines the performance of Madden�Julian oscillation (MJO) forecasts from NCEP�s coupled and uncoupled general circulation models (GCMs) and statistical models. The forecast skill from these methods is evaluated in near�real time. ...
Kyong-Hwan Seo; Wanqiu Wang; Jon Gottschalck; Qin Zhang; Jae-Kyung E. Schemm; Wayne R. Higgins; Arun Kumar
A Probabilistic Forecast Contest and the Difficulty in Assessing Short-Range Forecast Uncertainty
Results are presented from a probability-based weather forecast contest. Rather than evaluating the absolute errors of nonprobabilistic temperature and precipitation forecasts, as is common in other contests, this contest evaluated the skill of ...
Thomas M. Hamill; Daniel S. Wilks
Calibrated Precipitation Forecasts for a Limited-Area Ensemble Forecast System Using Reforecasts
The calibration of numerical weather forecasts using reforecasts has been shown to increase the skill of weather predictions. Here, the precipitation forecasts from the Consortium for Small Scale Modeling Limited Area Ensemble Prediction System (...
Felix Fundel; Andre Walser; Mark A. Liniger; Christoph Frei; Christof Appenzeller
Implications of Ensemble Quantitative Precipitation Forecast Errors on Distributed Streamflow Forecasting
Evaluating the propagation of errors associated with ensemble quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) into the ensemble streamflow response is important to reduce uncertainty in operational flow forecasting. In this paper, a multifractal ...
Giuseppe Mascaro; Enrique R. Vivoni; Roberto Deidda
Evaluation of Probabilistic Precipitation Forecasts Determined from Eta and AVN Forecasted Amounts
This note examines the connection between the probability of precipitation and forecasted amounts from the NCEP Eta (now known as the North American Mesoscale model) and Aviation (AVN; now known as the Global Forecast System) models run over a 2-...
William A. Gallus Jr.; Michael E. Baldwin; Kimberly L. Elmore
Reliable Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts from a Short-Range Ensemble Forecasting System
A simple binning technique is developed to produce reliable 3-h probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts (PQPFs) from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) multimodel short-range ensemble forecasting system obtained ...
David J. Stensrud; Nusrat Yussouf
The Impact of Writing Area Forecast Discussions on Student Forecaster Performance
A brief study is provided on the forecast performance of students who write a mock area forecast discussion (AFD) on a weekly basis. Student performance was tracked for one semester (11 weeks) during the University of Missouri�Columbia's local ...
Patrick S. Market
An Operational Model for Forecasting Probability of Precipitation and Yes/No Forecast
An operational system for forecasting probability of precipitation (PoP) and yes/no forecast over 10 stations during monsoon season is developed. A perfect prog method (PPM) approach is followed for statistical interpretation of numerical weather ...
Ashok Kumar; Parvinder Maini; S. V. Singh
Evaluation of Probabilistic Medium-Range Temperature Forecasts from the North American Ensemble Forecast System
Ensemble temperature forecasts from the North American Ensemble Forecast System were assessed for quality against observations for 10 cities in western North America, for a 7-month period beginning in February 2007. Medium-range probabilistic ...
Doug McCollor; Roland Stull
Further Evaluation of the National Meterological Center's Medium-Range Forecast Model Precpitation Forecasts
Precipitation forecasts made by the National Meteorological Center's medium-range forecast (MRF) model are evaluated for the period, 1 March 1987 to 31 March 1989. As shown by Roads and Maisel, the MRF model wet bias was substantially alleviated ...
John O. Roads; T. Norman Maisal; Jordan Alpert
R/ECON July 2000 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE
R/ECON July 2000 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE FORECAST OF JULY 2000 NEW JERSEY of growth will decelerate over the forecast period. The R/ECON TM forecast for New Jersey in 2000 looks to decelerate over the course of the forecast. These forces will combine to push the unemployment rate to more
Increasing NOAA's computational capacity to improve global forecast modeling
1 Increasing NOAA's computational capacity to improve global forecast modeling A NOAA of the NWS's forecast products, even its regional forecast products, are constrained by the limitations of NOAA's global forecast model. Unfortunately, our global forecasts are less accurate than those from
Forecasting Random Walks Under Drift Instability
Forecasting Random Walks Under Drift Instability? M. Hashem Pesaran University of Cambridge, CIMF, and USC Andreas Pick University of Cambridge, CIMF March 11, 2008 Abstract This paper considers forecast averaging when the same model is used... but estimation is carried out over different estimation windows. It develops theoretical results for random walks when their drift and/or volatility are subject to one or more structural breaks. It is shown that compared to using forecasts based on a single...
Pesaran, M Hashem; Pick, Andreas
EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data
H Tables H Tables Appendix H Comparisons With Other Forecasts, and Performance of Past IEO Forecasts for 1990, 1995, and 2000 Forecast Comparisons Three organizations provide forecasts comparable with those in the International Energy Outlook 2005 (IEO2005). The International Energy Agency (IEA) provides business as usual projections to the year 2030 in its World Energy Outlook 2004; Petroleum Economics, Ltd. (PEL) publishes world energy forecasts to 2025; and Petroleum Industry Research Associates (PIRA) provides projections to 2015. For this comparison, 2002 is used as the base year for all the forecasts, and the comparisons extend to 2025. Although IEAs forecast extends to 2030, it does not publish a projection for 2025. In addition to forecasts from other organizations, the IEO2005 projections are also compared with those in last years report (IEO2004). Because 2002 data were not available when IEO2004 forecasts were prepared, the growth rates from IEO2004 are computed from 2001.
Solar future: 1978. [Market forecast to 1992
The growth in sales of solar heating equipment is discussed. Some forecasts are made for the continued market growth of collectors, pool systems, and photovoltaics. (MOW)
Butt, S.H.
Energy conservation and official UK energy forecasts
Behind the latest United Kingdom (UK) official forecasts of energy demand are implicit assumptions about future energy-price elasticities. Mr. Pearce examines the basis of the forecasts and finds that the long-term energy-price elasticities that they imply are two or three times too low. The official forecasts substantially understate the responsiveness of demand to energy price rises. If more-realistic price elasticities were assumed, the official forecasts would imply a zero primary energy-demand growth to 2000. This raises the interesting possibility of a low energy future being brought about entirely by market forces. 15 references, 3 tables.
Pearce, D.
Geothermal wells: a forecast of drilling activity
Numbers and problems for geothermal wells expected to be drilled in the United States between 1981 and 2000 AD are forecasted. The 3800 wells forecasted for major electric power projects (totaling 6 GWe of capacity) are categorized by type (production, etc.), and by location (The Geysers, etc.). 6000 wells are forecasted for direct heat projects (totaling 0.02 Quads per year). Equations are developed for forecasting the number of wells, and data is presented. Drilling and completion problems in The Geysers, The Imperial Valley, Roosevelt Hot Springs, the Valles Caldera, northern Nevada, Klamath Falls, Reno, Alaska, and Pagosa Springs are discussed. Likely areas for near term direct heat projects are identified.
Brown, G.L.; Mansure, A.J.; Miewald, J.N.
Time Series Prediction Forecasting the Future and ...
Time Series Prediction Forecasting the Future and Understanding the Past Santa Fe Institute Proceedings on the Studies in the Sciences of ...
Promotional forecasting in the grocery retail business
Predicting customer demand in the highly competitive grocery retail business has become extremely difficult, especially for promotional items. The difficulty in promotional forecasting has resulted from numerous internal ...
Koottatep, Pakawkul
Rolling 12 Month Forecast November-2008.xls
Month Exceedence Level: 90% (Dry) First Preference CVP Generation Project Use November 2008 October 2009 November 2008 Twelve-Month Forecast of CVP Generation and Base Resource...
Forecasting Prices andForecasting Prices and Congestion forCongestion for
Abstract--In deregulated electricity markets, short-term load forecasting is important for reliable power322 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS, VOL. 25, NO. 1, FEBRUARY 2010 Short-Term Load Forecasting presents a similar day-based wavelet neural network method to forecast tomorrow's load. The idea
Tesfatsion, Leigh
Wind Power Forecasting andWind Power Forecasting and Electricity Market Operations
Power Forecasting in Five U.S. Electricity Markets MISO NYISO PJM ERCOT CAISO Peak load 109,157 MW (7 ........................................................................................... 18 4 WIND POWER FORECASTING AND ELECTRICITY MARKET OPERATIONS............................................................ 18 4-1 Market Operation and Wind Power Forecasting in Five U.S. Electricity Markets .......... 21 #12
Kemner, Ken
Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Table 1. Forecast Evaluations:
Average Absolute Percent Errors from AEO Forecast Evaluations: Average Absolute Percent Errors from AEO Forecast Evaluations: 1996 to 2000 Average Absolute Percent Error Average Absolute Percent Error Average Absolute Percent Error Average Absolute Percent Error Average Absolute Percent Error Variable 1996 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO93 1997 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO97 1998 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO98 1999 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO99 2000 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO2000 Consumption Total Energy Consumption 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 Total Petroleum Consumption 3.2 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.9 Total Natural Gas Consumption 6.0 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.6 Total Coal Consumption 2.9 2.7 3.0 3.2 3.3 Total Electricity Sales 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.8 2.0 Production Crude Oil Production 5.1 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.5
Forecasting during the Lake-ICE/SNOWBANDS Field Experiments
Despite improvements in numerical weather prediction models, statistical models, forecast decision trees, and forecasting rules of thumb, human interpretation of meteorological information for a particular forecast situation can still yield a ...
Peter J. Sousounis; Greg E. Mann; George S. Young; Richard B. Wagenmaker; Bradley D. Hoggatt; William J. Badini
Experiments in Temperature and Precipitation Forecasting for Illinois
Six years of daily temperature and precipitation forecasting are studied for Urbana, Illinois. Minimum temperature forecast skills, measured against a climatological control, are 57%, 48%, 34% and 20% for the respective forecast ranges of one, ...
John R. Gyakum
the entire forecast period, primarily because both weather-adjusted peak and electricity consumption were forecast. Keywords Electricity demand, electricity consumption, demand forecast, weather normalization, annual peak demand, natural gas demand, self-generation, conservation, California Solar Initiative. #12
The Economic Value Of Ensemble-Based Weather Forecasts
The potential economic benefit associated with the use of an ensemble of forecasts versus anequivalent or higher-resolution control forecast is discussed. Neither forecast systems are post-processed,except a simple calibration that is applied to ...
Yuejian Zhu; Zoltan Toth; Richard Wobus; David Richardson; Kenneth Mylne
A Probabilistic Forecast Approach for Daily Precipitation Totals
Commonly, postprocessing techniques are employed to calibrate a model forecast. Here, a probabilistic postprocessor is presented that provides calibrated probability and quantile forecasts of precipitation on the local scale. The forecasts are ...
Petra Friederichs; Andreas Hense
Precipitation and Temperature Forecast Performance at the Weather Prediction Center
The role of the human forecaster in improving upon the accuracy of numerical weather prediction is explored using multi-year verification of human-generated short-range precipitation forecasts and medium-range maximum temperature forecasts from ...
David R. Novak; Christopher Bailey; Keith Brill; Patrick Burke; Wallace Hogsett; Robert Rausch; Michael Schichtel
Uses and Applications of Climate Forecasts for Power Utilities
The uses and potential applications of climate forecasts for electric and gas utilities were assessed 1) to discern needs for improving climate forecasts and guiding future research, and 2) to assist utilities in making wise use of forecasts. In-...
Stanley A. Changnon; Joyce M. Changnon; David Changnon
Forecasting and Verifying in a Field Research Project: DOPLIGHT '87
Verification of forecasts during research field experiments is discussed and exemplified using the DOPLIGHT '87 experiment. We stress the importance of forecast verification if forecasting is to be a serious component of the research. A direct ...
Charles A. Doswell III; John A. Flueck
Diversity in Interpretations of Probability: Implications for Weather Forecasting
Over the last years, probability weather forecasts have become increasingly popular due in part to the development of ensemble forecast systems. Despite its widespread use in atmospheric sciences, probability forecasting remains a subtle and ...
Ram�n de El�a; Ren� Laprise
An Alternative Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecast Verification Technique
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) does not verify official or model forecasts if those forecasts call for a tropical cyclone to dissipate or if the real tropical cyclone dissipates. A new technique in which these forecasts are included in a ...
Sim D. Aberson
On the Reliability and Calibration of Ensemble Forecasts
An important aspect of ensemble forecasting is that the resulting probabilities are reliable (i.e., the forecast probabilities match the observed frequencies). In the medium-range forecasting context, the literature tends to focus on the ...
Christine Johnson; Neill Bowler
Scoring Probabilistic Forecasts: The Importance of Being Proper
Questions remain regarding how the skill of operational probabilistic forecasts is most usefully evaluated or compared, even though probability forecasts have been a long-standing aim in meteorological forecasting. This paper explains the ...
Jochen Br�cker; Leonard A. Smith
Prediction of Consensus Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Error
The extent to which the tropical cyclone (TC) track forecast error of a consensus model (CONU) routinely used by the forecasters at the National Hurricane Center can be predicted is determined. A number of predictors of consensus forecast error, ...
James S. Goerss
An Experiment in Mesoscale Weather Forecasting in the Michigan Area
During an experiment in mesoscale weather forecasting in the Michigan area, consensus improved over NWS guidance in maximum/minimum temperature and probability of precipitation forecasts out to 24 hours. Forecasts were generally best in the ...
Dennis G. Baker
U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
Sheet3 Sheet2 Sheet1 Figure 106. Average annual minemouth coal prices by region, 1990-2040 (2011 dollars per million Btu) Appalachia Interior West US Average
Price and Load Forecasting in Volatile Energy Markets
With daily news stories about wildly fluctuating electricity prices and soaring natural gas prices, forecasters' responsibilities are expanding, visibility is increasing, and pressure exists to produce more frequent forecasts and more kinds of forecasts. The proceedings of EPRI's 13th Forecasting Symposium, held November 13-15 in Nashville, Tennessee, address current forecasting issues and developments, as well as explain the role that forecasters have played in recent events in energy markets.
Module Handbook Specialisation Photovoltaics
#12;Specialisation Photovoltaics, University of Northumbria Module 1/Photovoltaics: PHOTOVOLTAIC CELL AND MODULE TECHNOLOGY Module name: PHOTOVOLTAIC CELL AND MODULE TECHNOLOGY Section EUREC · Chemistry · Physics Target learning outcomes The module Photovoltaic Cell and Module Technology teaches
Habel, Annegret
Blasting Vibration Forecast Base on Neural Network
The influence of blasting vibration to surroundings around the blasting area can not be ignored, in order to guarantee the safety of surroundings around blasting area, blasting vibration forecasting model based on neural network is established by improved ... Keywords: Blasting vibration, Neural network, Forecast
Haiwang Ye; Fang Liu; Jian Chang; Lin Feng; Yang Wang; Peng Yao; Kai Wu
Evaluating the Skill of Categorical Forecasts
A generalized skill score is presented for evaluating forecasts in any number of categories. Each forecast in a sample is given a mark; the skill score for the sample is just the average mark. Each mark has an expected value of zero for an ...
Neil D. Gordon
Forecasting demand of commodities after natural disasters
Demand forecasting after natural disasters is especially important in emergency management. However, since the time series of commodities demand after natural disasters usually has a great deal of nonlinearity and irregularity, it has poor prediction ... Keywords: ARIMA, Demand forecasting, EMD, Emergency management, Natural disaster
Xiaoyan Xu; Yuqing Qi; Zhongsheng Hua
Time series forecasting with Qubit Neural Networks
This paper proposes a quantum learning scheme approach for time series forecasting, through the application of the new non-standard Qubit Neural Network (QNN) model. The QNN description was adapted in this work in order to resemble classical Artificial ... Keywords: artificial intelligence, artificial neural networks, quantum computing, qubit neural networks, time series forecasting
Carlos R. B. Azevedo; Tiago A. E. Ferreira
Making Forecasts and Weather Normalization Work Together
Electric utility industry restructuring has changed the consistency between weather-normalized sales and energy forecasts. This Technology Review discusses the feasibility of integrating weather normalization and forecasting processes, and addresses whether the conflicting goal of obtaining greater consistency and accuracy with fewer staff resources can be met with more integrated approaches.
A spatially distributed flash flood forecasting model
This paper presents a distributed model that is in operational use for forecasting flash floods in northern Austria. The main challenge in developing the model was parameter identification which was addressed by a modelling strategy that involved a model ... Keywords: Distributed modelling, Dominant processes concept, Floods, Forecasting, Kalman Filter, Model accuracy, Parameter identification, Stream routing
G�nter Bl�schl; Christian Reszler; J�rgen Komma
The NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2
The second version of the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) was made operational at NCEP in March 2011. This version has upgrades to nearly all aspects of the data assimilation and forecast model components of the system. A coupled Reanalysis ...
Suranjana Saha; Shrinivas Moorthi; Xingren Wu; Jiande Wang; Sudhir Nadiga; Patrick Tripp; David Behringer; Yu-Tai Hou; Hui-ya Chuang; Mark Iredell; Michael Ek; Jesse Meng; Rongqian Yang; Malaqu�as Pe�a Mendez; Huug van den Dool; Qin Zhang; Wanqiu Wang; Mingyue Chen; Emily Becker
Forecast of geothermal-drilling activity
The number of geothermal wells that will be drilled to support electric power production in the United States through 2000 A.D. are forecasted. Results of the forecast are presented by 5-year periods for the five most significant geothermal resources.
Mansure, A.J.; Brown, G.L.
Preemptive Forecasts Using an Ensemble Kalman Filter
An ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) estimates the error statistics of a model forecast using an ensemble of model forecasts. One use of an EnKF is data assimilation, resulting in the creation of an increment to the first-guess field at the ...
Brian J. Etherton
Incentives for Retailer Forecasting: Rebates vs. Returns
This paper studies a manufacturer that sells to a newsvendor retailer who can improve the quality of her demand information by exerting costly forecasting effort. In such a setting, contracts play two roles: providing incentives to influence the retailer's ... Keywords: endogenous adverse selection, forecasting, rebates, returns, supply chain contracting
Terry A. Taylor; Wenqiang Xiao
Efficient forecasting for hierarchical time series
Forecasting is used as the basis for business planning in many application areas such as energy, sales and traffic management. Time series data used in these areas is often hierarchically organized and thus, aggregated along the hierarchy levels based ... Keywords: forecasting, hierarchies, optimization, time series
Lars Dannecker; Robert Lorenz; Philipp R�sch; Wolfgang Lehner; Gregor Hackenbroich
Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook - Petroleum Market Module
Petroleum Market Module Petroleum Market Module Assumption to the Annual Energy Outlook Petroleum Market Module Figure 8. Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts. Having problems, call our National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800 for help. The NEMS Petroleum Market Module (PMM) forecasts petroleum product prices and sources of supply for meeting petroleum product demand. The sources of supply include crude oil (both domestic and imported), petroleum product imports, other refinery inputs including alcohols, ethers, and bioesters natural gas plant liquids production, and refinery processing gain. In addition, the PMM estimates capacity expansion and fuel consumption of domestic refineries. The PMM contains a linear programming representation of U.S. refining
Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2002 - Industrial Demand Module
Industrial Demand Module Industrial Demand Module The NEMS Industrial Demand Module estimates energy consumption by energy source (fuels and feedstocks) for 9 manufacturing and 6 nonmanufacturing industries. The manufacturing industries are further subdivided into the energy-intensive manufacturing industries and nonenergy-intensive manufacturing industries. The distinction between the two sets of manufacturing industries pertains to the level of modeling. The manufacturing industries are modeled through the use of a detailed process flow or end use accounting procedure, whereas the nonmanufacturing industries are modeled with substantially less detail (Table 19). The Industrial Demand Module forecasts energy consumption at the four Census region levels; energy consumption at the Census Division level is allocated
Possibility of Skill Forecast Based on the Finite-Time Dominant Linear Solutions for a Primitive Equation Regional Forecast Model
The possibility of using forecast errors originating from the finite-time dominant linear modes for the prediction of forecast skill for a primitive equation regional forecast model is studied. This is similar to the method for skill prediction ...
Tomislava Vuki?evi?
Evaluating the Cloud Cover Forecast of NCEP Global Forecast System with Satellite Observation
To assess the quality of daily cloud cover forecast generated by the operational global numeric model, the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS), we compose a large sample with outputs from GFS model and satellite observations from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) in the period of July 2004 to June 2008, to conduct a quantitative and systematic assessment of the performance of a cloud model that covers a relatively long range of time, basic cloud types, and in a global view. The evaluation has revealed the goodness of the model forecast, which further illustrates our completeness on understanding cloud generation mechanism. To quantity the result, we found a remarkably high correlation between the model forecasts and the satellite observations over the entire globe, with mean forecast error less than 15% in most areas. Considering a forecast within 30% difference to the observation to be a "good" one, we find that the probability for the GFS model to make good forecasts varies between...
Ye, Quanzhi
SunShot Initiative: Forecasting and Influencing Technological...
Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress in Solar Energy to someone by E-mail Share SunShot Initiative: Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress in Solar Energy...
New Climate Research Centers Forecast Changes and Challenges...
Climate Research Centers Forecast Changes and Challenges New Climate Research Centers Forecast Changes and Challenges October 25, 2013 - 12:24pm Addthis This artist's rendering...
Exploiting Domain Knowledge to Forecast Heating Oil Consumption
The GasDay laboratory at Marquette University provides forecasts of energy consumption. One such service is the Heating Oil Forecaster
George F. Corliss; Tsuginosuke Sakauchi; Steven R. Vitullo; Ronald H. Brown
Building Energy Software Tools Directory: Energy Usage Forecasts
Alphabetically Tools by Platform PC Mac UNIX Internet Tools by Country Related Links Energy Usage Forecasts Energy Usage Forecasts Quick and easy web-based tool that provides...
Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2001 - Coal Market Module
Coal Market Module Coal Market Module The NEMS Coal Market Module (CMM) provides forecasts of U.S. coal production, consumption, exports, distribution, and prices. The CMM comprises three functional areas: coal production, coal distribution, and coal exports. A detailed description of the CMM is provided in the EIA publication, Coal Market Module of the National Energy Modeling System 2001, DOE/EIA-M060(2001) January 2001. Key Assumptions Coal Production The coal production submodule of the CMM generates a different set of supply curves for the CMM for each year of the forecast. Separate supply curves are developed for each of 11 supply regions, and 12 coal types (unique combinations of thermal grade, sulfur content, and mine type). The modeling approach used to construct regional coal supply curves
Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2002 - Coal Market Module
Coal Market Module Coal Market Module The NEMS Coal Market Module (CMM) provides forecasts of U.S. coal production, consumption, exports, distribution, and prices. The CMM comprises three functional areas: coal production, coal distribution, and coal exports. A detailed description of the CMM is provided in the EIA publication, Coal Market Module of the National Energy Modeling System 2002, DOE/EIA-M060(2002) (Washington, DC, January 2002). Key Assumptions Coal Production The coal production submodule of the CMM generates a different set of supply curves for the CMM for each year of the forecast. Separate supply curves are developed for each of 11 supply regions and 12 coal types (unique combinations of thermal grade, sulfur content, and mine type). The modeling approach used to construct regional coal supply curves
Residential HVAC Data, Assumptions and Methodology for End-Use Forecasting with EPRI-REEPS 2.1
LBL-34045 UC-1600 Residential HVAC Data, Assumptions and Methodology for End-Use Forecasting-uses include Heating, Ventilation and Air Conditioning (HVAC). Our analysis uses the modeling framework provided by the HVAC module in the Residential End-Use Energy Planning System (REEPS), which was developed
1993 Pacific Northwest Loads and Resources Study, Pacific Northwest Economic and Electricity Use Forecast, Technical Appendix: Volume 1.
This publication documents the load forecast scenarios and assumptions used to prepare BPA`s Whitebook. It is divided into: intoduction, summary of 1993 Whitebook electricity demand forecast, conservation in the load forecast, projection of medium case electricity sales and underlying drivers, residential sector forecast, commercial sector forecast, industrial sector forecast, non-DSI industrial forecast, direct service industry forecast, and irrigation forecast. Four appendices are included: long-term forecasts, LTOUT forecast, rates and fuel price forecasts, and forecast ranges-calculations.
United States. Bonneville Power Administration.
A Short-Range Forecasting Experiment Conducted during the Canadian Atlantic Storms Program
During the Canadian Atlantic Storms Program (CASP), a dedicated forecast center conducted experiments in mesoscale forecasting. Several forecast products, including a marine forecast and a site-specific public forecast, were written every 3 h. ...
K. A. Macdonald; M. Danks; J. D. Abraham
Decision support for financial forecasting
A primary mission of the Budget Management Division of the Air Force is fiscal analysis. This involves formulating, justifying, and tracking financial data during budget preparation and execution. An essential requirement of this process is the ready availability and easy manipulation of past and current budget data. This necessitates the decentralization of the data. A prototypical system, BAFS (Budget Analysis and Forecasting System), that provides such a capability is presented. In its current state, the system is designed to be a decision support tool. A brief report of the budget decisions and activities is presented. The system structure and its major components are discussed. An insight into the implementation strategies and the tool used is provided. The paper concludes with a discussion of future enhancements and the system's evolution into an expert system. 4 refs., 3 figs.
Jairam, B.N.; Morris, J.D.; Emrich, M.L.; Hardee, H.K.
Construction Safety Forecast for ITER
The International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) project is poised to begin its construction activity. This paper gives an estimate of construction safety as if the experiment was being built in the United States. This estimate of construction injuries and potential fatalities serves as a useful forecast of what can be expected for construction of such a major facility in any country. These data should be considered by the ITER International Team as it plans for safety during the construction phase. Based on average U.S. construction rates, ITER may expect a lost workday case rate of < 4.0 and a fatality count of 0.5 to 0.9 persons per year.
cadwallader, lee charles
Earthquake Forecast via Neutrino Tomography
We discuss the possibility of forecasting earthquakes by means of (anti)neutrino tomography. Antineutrinos emitted from reactors are used as a probe. As the antineutrinos traverse through a region prone to earthquakes, observable variations in the matter effect on the antineutrino oscillation would provide a tomography of the vicinity of the region. In this preliminary work, we adopt a simplified model for the geometrical profile and matter density in a fault zone. We calculate the survival probability of electron antineutrinos for cases without and with an anomalous accumulation of electrons which can be considered as a clear signal of the coming earthquake, at the geological region with a fault zone, and find that the variation may reach as much as 3% for $\\bar \
Bin Wang; Ya-Zheng Chen; Xue-Qian Li
MSSM Forecast for the LHC
We perform a forecast of the MSSM with universal soft terms (CMSSM) for the LHC, based on an improved Bayesian analysis. We do not incorporate ad hoc measures of the fine-tuning to penalize unnatural possibilities: such penalization arises from the Bayesian analysis itself when the experimental value of $M_Z$ is considered. This allows to scan the whole parameter space, allowing arbitrarily large soft terms. Still the low-energy region is statistically favoured (even before including dark matter or g-2 constraints). Contrary to other studies, the results are almost unaffected by changing the upper limits taken for the soft terms. The results are also remarkable stable when using flat or logarithmic priors, a fact that arises from the larger statistical weight of the low-energy region in both cases. Then we incorporate all the important experimental constrains to the analysis, obtaining a map of the probability density of the MSSM parameter space, i.e. the forecast of the MSSM. Since not all the experimental information is equally robust, we perform separate analyses depending on the group of observables used. When only the most robust ones are used, the favoured region of the parameter space contains a significant portion outside the LHC reach. This effect gets reinforced if the Higgs mass is not close to its present experimental limit and persits when dark matter constraints are included. Only when the g-2 constraint (based on $e^+e^-$ data) is considered, the preferred region (for $\\mu>0$) is well inside the LHC scope. We also perform a Bayesian comparison of the positive- and negative-$\\mu$ possibilities.
Maria Eugenia Cabrera; Alberto Casas; Roberto Ruiz de Austri
Forecasting future volatility from option prices, Working
Weisbach are gratefully acknowledged. I bear full responsibility for all remaining errors. Forecasting Future Volatility from Option Prices Evidence exists that option prices produce biased forecasts of future volatility across a wide variety of options markets. This paper presents two main results. First, approximately half of the forecasting bias in the S&P 500 index (SPX) options market is eliminated by constructing measures of realized volatility from five minute observations on SPX futures rather than from daily closing SPX levels. Second, much of the remaining forecasting bias is eliminated by employing an option pricing model that permits a non-zero market price of volatility risk. It is widely believed that option prices provide the best forecasts of the future volatility of the assets which underlie them. One reason for this belief is that option prices have the ability to impound all publicly available information � including all information contained in the history of past prices � about the future volatility of the underlying assets. A second related reason is that option pricing theory maintains that if an option prices fails to embody optimal forecasts of the future volatility of the underlying asset, a profitable trading strategy should be available whose implementation would push the option price to the level that reflects the best possible forecast of future volatility.
Allen M. Poteshman
A Buildings Module for the Stochastic Energy Deployment System
The U.S. Department of Energy (USDOE) is building a new long-range (to 2050) forecasting model for use in budgetary and management applications called the Stochastic Energy Deployment System (SEDS), which explicitly incorporates uncertainty through its development within the Analytica(R) platform of Lumina Decision Systems. SEDS is designed to be a fast running (a few minutes), user-friendly model that analysts can readily run and modify in its entirety through a visual programming interface. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory is responsible for implementing the SEDS Buildings Module. The initial Lite version of the module is complete and integrated with a shared code library for modeling demand-side technology choice developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and Lumina. The module covers both commercial and residential buildings at the U.S. national level using an econometric forecast of floorspace requirement and a model of building stock turnover as the basis for forecasting overall demand for building services. Although the module is fundamentally an engineering-economic model with technology adoption decisions based on cost and energy performance characteristics of competing technologies, it differs from standard energy forecasting models by including considerations of passive building systems, interactions between technologies (such as internal heat gains), and on-site power generation.
Lacommare, Kristina S H; Marnay, Chris; Stadler, Michael; Borgeson, Sam; Coffey, Brian; Komiyama, Ryoichi; Lai, Judy
Model documentation: Electricity Market Module, Electricity Fuel Dispatch Submodule
This report documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the National Energy Modeling System Electricity Fuel Dispatch Submodule (EFD), a submodule of the Electricity Market Module (EMM). The report catalogues and describes the model assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, model source code, and forecast results generated through the synthesis and scenario development based on these components.
Not Available
1993 Solid Waste Reference Forecast Summary
This report, which updates WHC-EP-0567, 1992 Solid Waste Reference Forecast Summary, (WHC 1992) forecasts the volumes of solid wastes to be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site during the 30-year period from FY 1993 through FY 2022. The data used in this document were collected from Westinghouse Hanford Company forecasts as well as from surveys of waste generators at other US Department of Energy sites who are now shipping or plan to ship solid wastes to the Hanford Site for disposal. These wastes include low-level and low-level mixed waste, transuranic and transuranic mixed waste, and nonradioactive hazardous waste.
Valero, O.J.; Blackburn, C.L. [Westinghouse Hanford Co., Richland, WA (United States); Kaae, P.S.; Armacost, L.L.; Garrett, S.M.K. [Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (United States)
Forecast Bias Correction: A Second Order Method
The difference between a model forecast and actual observations is called forecast bias. This bias is due to either incomplete model assumptions and/or poorly known parameter values and initial/boundary conditions. In this paper we discuss a method for estimating corrections to parameters and initial conditions that would account for the forecast bias. A set of simple experiments with the logistic ordinary differential equation is performed using an iterative version of a first order version of our method to compare with the second order version of the method.
Crowell, Sean
Industrial production index forecast: Methods comparison
The purpose of this work is to investigate the suitability of different methods as short term forecast tools. It is studied and compared the application of the Kalman filter method with other forecasting methods when applied to a set of qualitative and quantitative information. The work data set is made of qualitative surveys of conjunture and the industrial production index (IPI). The objective is the attainment of short term forecast models for the Portuguese IPI of the transforming industry. After the previous treatment of the data
M. Filomena Teodoro
Short-term streamflow forecasting: ARIMA vs neural networks
Streamflow forecasting is very important for water resources management and flood defence. In this paper two forecasting methods are compared: ARIMA versus a multilayer perceptron neural network. This comparison is done by forecasting a streamflow of ... Keywords: artificial neural networks, auto regressive integrated moving average, forecasting, streamflow
Juan Frausto-Solis; Esmeralda Pita; Javier Lagunas
Optimal Updating of Forecasts for the Timing of Future Events
A major problem in forecasting is estimating the time of some future event. traditionally, forecasts are designed to minimize an error cost function that is evaluated once, possibly when the event occurs and forecast accuracy can be determined. However, ... Keywords: Air Transportation, Dynamic Programming Applications, Forecasting
Juhwen Hwang; Medini R. Singh; W. J. Hurley; Robert A. Shumsky
Customization and Marketing of Monsoon Forecasts A CSIRCMMACS Synergy
Customization and Marketing of Monsoon Forecasts A CSIRCMMACS Synergy Criteria for Technical forecasts of monsoon can significantly aid many sectors like agriculture, power and production industries to the operational forecast, to develop and deliver customized monsoon forecasts based on user need is required
Swathi, P S
Update On The Wholesale Electricity Price Forecast & Modeling Results
Forecast Base Case includes § Medium Demand Forecast § Medium Natural Gas Price Forecast § Federal CO2 Rathdrum Power LLC-ID 4) CO2 Emissions - 2009 Selected Natural Gas Plants Plant level, emission percentage § Significantly lower electricity prices than 6th Plan Forecast, due to lower demand, lower gas prices, deferred
or over predicting electricity demand due to poor weather forecasts is several hundred million dollars outages that many in the area experienced. Deep Thunder can also improve generation-side load forecasting by providing high-resolution weather forecast data for use in electricity demand forecast models. Integrating
Manry, Michael
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF REVISED FORECAST forecast is the combined product of the hard work and expertise of numerous staff members in the Demand prepared the residential sector forecast. Mohsen Abrishami prepared the commercial sector forecast. Lynn
R/ECON December 1999 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE
R/ECON December 1999 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE FORECAST OF DECEMBER 1999 NEW and wage growth slow later in the forecast, income growth will average 5% a year between 2000 and 2004. Over the forecast period, population growth will average 0.5% a year. The population will rise from 8
R/ECON July 2001 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE
R/ECON July 2001 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE FORECAST OF JULY 2001 NEW JERSEY each year. The R/ECONTM forecast for New Jersey looks for growth in real output of 2.6 percent years. Over the forecast period, both the construction and manufacturing sectors will lose jobs
R/ECON April 2001 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE
R/ECON April 2001 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE FORECAST OF APRIL 2001 NEW JERSEY and 2005, and by an average of 43,000 thereafter (from 2005 to 2020). The R/ECONTM forecast for New Jersey.6 percent a year over the rest of the forecast period. Personal income will rise 5.6 percent this year, down
R/ECON October 1999 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE
R/ECON October 1999 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE FORECAST OF OCTOBER 1999 NEW JERSEY the rate of inflation should remain under 3% a year. (See Table 1.) #12;Throughout the forecast period and wage growth slow later in the forecast period, income growth will average 4.8% a year between 2000
Does increasing model stratospheric resolution improve extended range forecast skill?
Does increasing model stratospheric resolution improve extended range forecast skill? Greg Roff,1 forecast skill at high Southern latitudes is explored. Ensemble forecasts are made for two model configurations that differ only in vertical resolution above 100 hPa. An ensemble of twelve 30day forecasts
PRELIMINARY CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 2012-2022 AUGUST 2011 CEC-200-2011-011-SD CALIFORNIA or adequacy of the information in this report. #12;i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The staff demand forecast forecast. Bryan Alcorn and Mehrzad Soltani Nia prepared the industrial forecast. Miguel Garcia- Cerrutti
R/ECON December 1998 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE
R/ECON December 1998 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE FORECAST OF DECEMBER 1998 NEW 1997 will continue-- though at a reduced rate--through the forecast period that ends in 2001. New inflation of about 1.5%. In 1998, R/ECONTM forecasts that employment will rise by 76,000 jobs, or 2
R/ECON October 2000 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE
R/ECON October 2000 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE FORECAST OF OCTOBER 2000 NEW JERSEY and 2002, with 84,800 jobs being added over the two-year period. The R/ECON TM forecast for New Jersey the rest of the forecast period as foreign immigration declines and the population ages. In the next 10
R/ECON April 1999 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE
R/ECON April 1999 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE FORECAST OF APRIL 1999 NEW JERSEY forecast for New Jersey is for a continuation of the current expansion but at a somewhat slower pace in employment through the forecast period will be in services and trade. We also expect considerable growth
R/ECON July 1999 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE
R/ECON July 1999 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE FORECAST OF JULY 1999 NEW JERSEY forecast for New Jersey is for a continuing but slowing expansion. (See Table 1.) In 1998, employment rose increased by 0.7% in 1998. It will slow a bit over the forecast period as foreign immigration declines. #12
R/ECON April 2000 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE
R/ECON April 2000 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE FORECAST OF APRIL 2000 NEW JERSEY to more inflation and higher interest rates. The R/ECON TM forecast for New Jersey looks for employment.6% a year over the forecast period. The services and trade sectors will provide 90% of the net increase
Atmospheric Lagrangian coherent structures considering unresolved turbulence and forecast uncertainty
Atmospheric Lagrangian coherent structures considering unresolved turbulence and forecast, the uncertainty of the forecast FTLE fields is analyzed using ensemble forecasting. Unavoidable errors of the forecast velocity data due to the chaotic dynamics of the atmosphere is the salient reason for errors
Ross, Shane
A New Measure of Earnings Forecast Uncertainty Xuguang Sheng
A New Measure of Earnings Forecast Uncertainty Xuguang Sheng American University Washington, D of earnings forecast uncertainty as the sum of dispersion among analysts and the variance of mean forecast available to analysts at the time they make their forecasts. Hence, it alleviates some of the limitations
Kim, Kiho
AN ANALYSIS OF FORECAST BASED REORDER POINT POLICIES : THE BENEFIT OF USING FORECASTS Mohamed Zied Ch^atenay-Malabry Cedex, France Abstract: In this paper, we analyze forecast based inventory control policies for a non-stationary demand. We assume that forecasts and the associated uncertainties are given
Time dependent Directional Profit Model for Financial Time Series Forecasting
Time dependent Directional Profit Model for Financial Time Series Forecasting Jingtao YAO Chew firstname.lastname@example.com Abstract Goodnessoffit is the most popular criterion for neural network time series forecasting. In the context of financial time series forecasting, we are not only concerned at how good the forecasts fit
Yao, JingTao
A Study on Training Criteria for Financial Time Series Forecasting
A Study on Training Criteria for Financial Time Series Forecasting JingTao YAO Dept of Information on goodness-of-fit which is also the most popular criterion forecasting. How ever, in the context of financial time series forecasting, we are not only concerned at how good the forecasts fit their target. In order
A new class of hybrid models for time series forecasting
Applying quantitative models for forecasting and assisting investment decision making has become more indispensable in business practices than ever before. Improving forecasting especially time series forecasting accuracy is an important yet often difficult ... Keywords: Artificial neural networks (ANNs), Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Hybrid models, Probabilistic neural networks (PNNs), Time series forecasting
Mehdi Khashei; Mehdi Bijari
Distribution of Wind Power Forecasting Errors from Operational Systems (Presentation)
This presentation offers new data and statistical analysis of wind power forecasting errors in operational systems.
Hodge, B. M.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.
Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting (Presentation)
This presentation proposes a suite of metrics for evaluating the performance of solar power forecasting.
Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H.; Banunarayanan, V.
New results in forecasting of photovoltaic systems output based on solar radiation forecasting
Accurate short term forecasting of photovoltaic (PV) systems output has a great significance for fast development of PV parks in South-East Europe
Laurentiu Fara
Analysis Papers > Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation>Tables Analysis Papers > Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation>Tables Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Download Adobe Acrobat Reader Printer friendly version on our site are provided in Adobe Acrobat Spreadsheets are provided in Excel Actual vs. Forecasts Formats Table 2. Total Energy Consumption Excel, PDF Table 3. Total Petroleum Consumption Excel, PDF Table 4. Total Natural Gas Consumption Excel, PDF Table 5. Total Coal Consumption Excel, PDF Table 6. Total Electricity Sales Excel, PDF Table 7. Crude Oil Production Excel, PDF Table 8. Natural Gas Production Excel, PDF Table 9. Coal Production Excel, PDF Table 10. Net Petroleum Imports Excel, PDF Table 11. Net Natural Gas Imports Excel, PDF Table 12. World Oil Prices Excel, PDF Table 13. Natural Gas Wellhead Prices
Modeling and Analysis Papers> Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation>Tables Modeling and Analysis Papers> Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation>Tables Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Actual vs. Forecasts Available formats Excel (.xls) for printable spreadsheet data (Microsoft Excel required) MS Excel Viewer PDF (Acrobat Reader required Download Acrobat Reader ) Adobe Acrobat Reader Logo Table 2. Total Energy Consumption Excel, PDF Table 3. Total Petroleum Consumption Excel, PDF Table 4. Total Natural Gas Consumption Excel, PDF Table 5. Total Coal Consumption Excel, PDF Table 6. Total Electricity Sales Excel, PDF Table 7. Crude Oil Production Excel, PDF Table 8. Natural Gas Production Excel, PDF Table 9. Coal Production Excel, PDF Table 10. Net Petroleum Imports Excel, PDF Table 11. Net Natural Gas Imports Excel, PDF
Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation 2004
2004 2004 * The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) has produced annual evaluations of the accuracy of the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on the prior year by adding the projections from the most recent AEO and replacing the historical year of data with the most recent. The forecast evaluation examines the accuracy of AEO forecasts dating back to AEO82 by calculating the average absolute percent errors for several of the major variables for AEO82 through AEO2004. (There is no report titled Annual Energy Outlook 1988 due to a change in the naming convention of the AEOs.) The average absolute percent error is the simple mean of the absolute values of the percentage difference between the Reference Case projection and the
Annual Energy Outlook 2001 - Forecast Comparisons
Forecast Comparisons Forecast Comparisons Economic Growth World Oil Prices Total Energy Consumption Residential and Commercial Sectors Industrial Sector Transportation Sector Electricity Natural Gas Petroleum Coal Three other organizationsStandard & Poors DRI (DRI), the WEFA Group (WEFA), and the Gas Research Institute (GRI) [95]also produce comprehensive energy projections with a time horizon similar to that of AEO2001. The most recent projections from those organizations (DRI, Spring/Summer 2000; WEFA, 1st Quarter 2000; GRI, January 2000), as well as other forecasts that concentrate on petroleum, natural gas, and international oil markets, are compared here with the AEO2001 projections. Economic Growth Differences in long-run economic forecasts can be traced primarily to
energy data + forecasting | OpenEI Community
energy data + forecasting energy data + forecasting Home FRED Description: Free Energy Database Tool on OpenEI This is an open source platform for assisting energy decision makers and policy makers in formulating policies and energy plans based on easy to use forecasting tools, visualizations, sankey diagrams, and open data. The platform will live on OpenEI and this community was established to initiate discussion around continuous development of this tool, integrating it with new datasets, and connecting with the community of users who will want to contribute data to the tool and use the tool for planning purposes. Links: FRED beta demo energy data + forecasting Syndicate content 429 Throttled (bot load) Error 429 Throttled (bot load) Throttled (bot load) Guru Meditation: XID: 2084382122
Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation 2005
Forecast Evaluation 2005 Forecast Evaluation 2005 Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation 2005 Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation 2005 * Then Energy Information Administration (EIA) produces projections of energy supply and demand each year in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO). The projections in the AEO are not statements of what will happen but of what might happen, given the assumptions and methodologies used. The projections are business-as-usual trend projections, given known technology, technological and demographic trends, and current laws and regulations. Thus, they provide a policy-neutral reference case that can be used to analyze policy initiatives. EIA does not propose or advocate future legislative and regulatory changes. All laws are assumed to remain as currently enacted; however, the impacts of emerging regulatory changes, when defined, are reflected.
Artificial Skill and Validation in Meteorological Forecasting
The results of a simulation study of multiple regression prediction models for meteorological forecasting are reported. The effects of sample size, amount, and severity of nonrepresentative data in the population, inclusion of noninformative ...
Paul W. Mielke Jr.; Kenneth J. Berry; Christopher W. Landsea; William M. Gray
Skill of Multimodel ENSO Probability Forecasts
The cross-validated hindcast skills of various multimodel ensemble combination strategies are compared for probabilistic predictions of monthly SST anomalies in the ENSO-related Ni�o-3.4 region of the tropical Pacific Ocean. Forecast data from ...
Michael K. Tippett; Anthony G. Barnston
Assessing Forecast Skill through Cross Validation
This study explains the method of cross validation for assessing forecast skill of empirical prediction models. Cross validation provides a relatively accurate measure of an empirical procedure's ability to produce a useful prediction rule from a ...
J. B. Elsner; C. P. Schmertmann
Ensemble Forecast of a Typhoon Flood Event
A high-resolution nested regional spectral model and an ensemble prediction system are combined to forecast the track, intensity, and flooding precipitation arising from Typhoon Winnie of August 1997, which eventually reached supertyphoon status. ...
Brian P. Mackey; T. N. Krishnamurti
Potential Economic Value of Seasonal Hurricane Forecasts
This paper explores the potential utility of seasonal Atlantic hurricane forecasts to a hypothetical property insurance firm whose insured properties are broadly distributed along the U.S. Gulf and East Coasts. Using a recently developed hurricane ...
Kerry Emanuel; Fabian Fondriest; James Kossin
Airborne Volcanic Ash Forecast Area Reliability
In support of aircraft flight safety operations, daily comparisons between modeled, hypothetical, volcanic ash plumes calculated with meteorological forecasts and analyses were made over a 1.5-yr period. The Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian ...
Barbara J. B. Stunder; Jerome L. Heffter; Roland R. Draxler
River flow forecasting with constructive neural network
In utilities using a mixture of hydroelectric and non-hydroelectric power, the economics of the hydroelectric plants depend upon the reservoir height and the inflow into the reservoir for several months into the future. Accurate forecasts of reservoir ...
M�user Valen�a; Teresa Ludermir; Anelle Valen�a
Forecast verification: Its Complexity and Dimensionality
Two fundamental characteristics of forecast verification problems�complexity and dimensionality�are described. To develop quantitative definitions of these characteristics, a general framework for the problem of absolute verification (AV) is ...
Consensus Forecasts of Modeled Wave Parameters
The use of numerical guidance has become integral to the process of modern weather forecasting. Using various techniques, postprocessing of numerical model output has been shown to mitigate some of the deficiencies of these models, producing more ...
Tom H. Durrant; Frank Woodcock; Diana J. M. Greenslade
Dynamical Properties of Model Output Statistics Forecasts
The dynamical properties of forecasts corrected using model output statistics (MOS) schemes are explored, with emphasis on the respective role of model and initial condition uncertainties. Analytical and numerical investigations of low-order ...
S. Vannitsem; C. Nicolis
Scientific Verification of Deterministic River Stage Forecasts
One element of a complete verification system is the ability to determine why forecasts behave as they do. This paper describes and demonstrates an operationally feasible method for conducting this type of diagnostic verification analysis. ...
Edwin Welles; Soroosh Sorooshian
Hypothesis Tests for Evaluating Numerical Precipitation Forecasts
When evaluating differences between competing precipitation forecasts, formal hypothesis testing is rarely performed. This may be due to the difficulty in applying common tests given the spatial correlation of and non-normality of errors. ...
Thomas M. Hamill
The ENIAC Forecasts: A Re-creation
The numerical forecasts made in 1950 using the Electronic Numerical Integrator and Computer (ENIAC) paved the way for the remarkable advances that have been made over the past half-century in weather prediction and climate modeling. We review the ...
NCEP Dynamical Seasonal Forecast System 2000
The new National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) numerical seasonal forecast system is described in detail. The new system is aimed at a next-generation numerical seasonal prediction in which focus is placed on land processes, initial ...
Masao Kanamitsu; Arun Kumar; Hann-Ming Henry Juang; Jae-Kyung Schemm; Wanqui Wang; Fanglin Yang; Song-You Hong; Peitao Peng; Wilber Chen; Shrinivas Moorthi; Ming Ji
MM5 Contrail Forecasting in Alaska
The fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University�National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU�NCAR) Mesoscale Model (MM5) is being used for forecasting the atmospheric layers of aircraft condensation trail (contrail) formation. Contrail ...
Martin Stuefer; Xiande Meng; Gerd Wendler
Medium- and Long-Range Forecasting
In contrast to short and extended range forecasts, predictions for periods beyond 5 days use time-averaged, midtropospheric height fields as their primary guidance. As time ranges are increased to 3O- and 90-day outlooks, guidance increasingly ...
A. James Wagner
Dynamic Algorithm for Space Weather Forecasting System
We propose to develop a dynamic algorithm that intelligently analyzes existing solar weather data and constructs an increasingly more accurate equation/algorithm for predicting solar weather accurately in real time. This dynamic algorithm analyzes a wealth of data derived from scientific research and provides increasingly accurate solar forecasts. As the database of information grows over time, this algorithm perfects itself and reduces forecast uncertainties. This will provide a vastly more effective way of processing existing data for practical use in the public and private sectors. Specifically, we created an algorithm that stores data from several sources in a way that is useable, we created the ?dynamic algorithm? used for creating accurate/effective forecasts, and we have performed preliminary benchmarks on this algorithm. The preliminary benchmarks yield surprisingly effective results thus far?forecasts have been made 8-16 hours into the future with significant magnitude and trend accuracy, which is a vast improvement over current methods employed.
Fischer, Luke D.
Forecasting Resource Supply from Scarcity Rent Data
Forecasting Resource Supply from Scarcity Rent Data Speaker(s): Larry Dale Date: December 18, 2000 - 12:00pm Location: 90-3122 Seminar HostPoint of Contact: Diana Morris This talk...
Computer Generation of Marine Weather Forecast Text
MARWORDS is a natural language text generation system which has been developed to synthesize marine forecasts for the Davis Strait area in Northern Canada. It uses standard manually produced predictions of wind speed, air temperature, and other ...
E. Goldberg; R. Kittredge; A. Polgu�re
Forecast U.S. Distillate Stocks
EIA is not projecting a large recovery over the summer, but because refineries are forecast to run at high utilization rates, they may produce more distillate than expected and...
EIA lowers forecast for summer gasoline prices
EIA lowers forecast for summer gasoline prices U.S. gasoline prices are expected to be lower this summer than previously thought. The price for regular gasoline this summer is now...
Visualizing Multiple Measures of Forecast Quality
A method for visually representing multiple measures of dichotomous (yes�no) forecast quality (probability of detection, false alarm ratio, bias, and critical success index) in a single diagram is presented. Illustration of the method is provided ...
Paul J. Roebber
Using Climate Forecasts for Drought Management
Drought hazards, and the ability to mitigate them with advance warning, offer potentially valuable applications of climate forecast products. Yet the value is often untapped, owing to the gap between climate science and societal decisions. This ...
Anne C. Steinemann
Assessing the Usefulness of Probabilistic Forecasts
The errors in both the initialization and simulated evolution of weather and climate models create significant uncertainties in forecasts at lead times beyond a few days. Modern prediction systems sample the sources of these uncertainties to ...
An Objective Basis for Forecasting Tornado Intensity
Although violent tornadoes comprise only 2.3% of tornado occurrences in the United States, they cause 68% of the fatalities attributed to tornadoes and severe thunderstorms. Despite these statistics, no attempt is made to forecast or warn of ...
J. R. Colquhoun; D. J. Shepherd
Flood Forecasting in River System Using ANFIS
The aim of the present study is to investigate applicability of artificial intelligence techniques such as ANFIS (Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System) in forecasting flood flow in a river system. The proposed technique combines the learning ability of neural network with the transparent linguistic representation of fuzzy system. The technique is applied to forecast discharge at a downstream station using flow information at various upstream stations. A total of three years data has been selected for the implementation of this model. ANFIS models with various input structures and membership functions are constructed, trained and tested to evaluate efficiency of the models. Statistical indices such as Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Correlation Coefficient (CORR) and Coefficient of Efficiency (CE) are used to evaluate performance of the ANFIS models in forecasting river flood. The values of the indices show that ANFIS model can accurately and reliably be used to forecast flood in a river system.
Ullah, Nazrin; Choudhury, P. [Dept. of Civil Eng., NIT, Silchar (India)
Updated Satellite Technique to Forecast Heavy Snow
Certain satellite interpretation techniques have proven quite useful in the heavy snow forecast process. Those considered best are briefly reviewed, and another technique is introduced. This new technique was found to be most valuable in cyclonic ...
Edward C. Johnston
Optimization of Value of Aerodrome Forecasts
Prediction of short-term variations of vital boundary layer conditions at airports, such as visibility and cloud base, is important to the safe and economic operation of airlines. Results of an experiment involving groups of forecasters at three ...
Ross Keith
Severe Thunderstorm Forecasting: A Historical Perspective
Techniques that have evolved during the hundred years that scientific severe thunderstorm forecasts have been prepared are reviewed. The early empirical rules developed by Finley, Showalter and Fulks, Fawbush, Miller and Starrett, and others have ...
Joseph T. Schaefer
Ceiling and Visibility Forecasts via Neural Networks
Statistical postprocessing of numerical model output can improve forecast quality, especially when model output is combined with surface observations. In this article, the development of nonlinear postprocessors for the prediction of ceiling and ...
Caren Marzban; Stephen Leyton; Brad Colman
Spread Calibration of Ensemble MOS Forecasts
Ensemble forecasting systems often contain systematic biases and spread deficiencies that can be corrected by statistical postprocessing. This study presents an improvement to an ensemble statistical postprocessing technique, called ensemble ...
Bruce A. Veenhuis
Snowfall Limit Forecasts and Hydrological Modeling
Hydrological flood forecasting in mountainous areas requires accurate partitioning between rain and snowfall to properly estimate the extent of runoff contributing areas. Here a method to make use of snowfall limit information�a standard output of ...
Cara Tobin; Andrea Rinaldo; Bettina Schaefli
SolarAnywhere forecast (Perez & Hoff) This chapter describes, and presents an evaluation of, the forecast models imbedded in the
SolarAnywhere forecast (Perez & Hoff) ABSTRACT This chapter describes, and presents an evaluation of, the forecast models imbedded in the SolarAnywhere platform. The models include satellite derived cloud motion based forecasts for the short to medium horizon (1 5 hours) and forecasts derived from NOAA
Perez, Richard R.
Wind Speed Forecasting for Power System Operation
In order to support large-scale integration of wind power into current electric energy system, accurate wind speed forecasting is essential, because the high variation and limited predictability of wind pose profound challenges to the power system operation in terms of the efficiency of the system. The goal of this dissertation is to develop advanced statistical wind speed predictive models to reduce the uncertainties in wind, especially the short-term future wind speed. Moreover, a criterion is proposed to evaluate the performance of models. Cost reduction in power system operation, as proposed, is more realistic than prevalent criteria, such as, root mean square error (RMSE) and absolute mean error (MAE). Two advanced space-time statistical models are introduced for short-term wind speed forecasting. One is a modified regime-switching, space-time wind speed fore- casting model, which allows the forecast regimes to vary according to the dominant wind direction and seasons. Thus, it avoids a subjective choice of regimes. The other one is a novel model that incorporates a new variable, geostrophic wind, which has strong influence on the surface wind, into one of the advanced space-time statistical forecasting models. This model is motivated by the lack of improvement in forecast accuracy when using air pressure and temperature directly. Using geostrophic wind in the model is not only critical, it also has a meaningful geophysical interpretation. The importance of model evaluation is emphasized in the dissertation as well. Rather than using RMSE or MAE, the performance of both wind forecasting models mentioned above are assessed by economic benefits with real wind farm data from Pacific Northwest of the U.S and West Texas. Wind forecasts are incorporated into power system economic dispatch models, and the power system operation cost is used as a loss measure for the performance of the forecasting models. From another perspective, the new criterion leads to cost-effective scheduling of system-wide wind generation with potential economic benefits arising from the system-wide generation of cost savings and ancillary services cost savings. As an illustration, the integrated forecasts and economic dispatch framework are applied to the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) equivalent 24- bus system. Compared with persistence and autoregressive models, the first model suggests that cost savings from integration of wind power could be on the scale of tens of millions of dollars. For the second model, numerical simulations suggest that the overall generation cost can be reduced by up to 6.6% using look-ahead dispatch coupled with spatio-temporal wind forecast as compared with dispatch with persistent wind forecast model.
Zhu, Xinxin
How Do Forecasters Utilize Output From A Convection-Permitting Ensemble Forecast System? Case Study Of A High-Impact Precipitation Event
The proliferation of ensemble forecast system output in recent years motivates this investigation into how operational forecasters utilize convection-permitting ensemble forecast system guidance in the forecast preparation process. A sixteen-...
Clark Evans; Donald F. Van Dyke; Todd Lericos
Wind Energy Forecasting Technology Update: 2004
This report describes the status of wind energy forecasting technology for predicting wind speed and energy generation of wind energy facilities short-term (minutes to hours), intermediate-term (hours to days), and long-term (months to years) average wind speed and energy generation. The information should be useful to companies that are evaluating or planning to incorporate wind energy forecasting into their operations.
Forecasting the demand for commercial telecommunications satellites
This paper summarizes the key elements of a forecast methodology for predicting demand for commercial satellite services and the resulting demand for satellite hardware and launches. The paper discusses the characterization of satellite services into more than a dozen applications (including emerging satellite Internet applications) used by Futron Corporation in its forecasts. The paper discusses the relationship between demand for satellite services and demand for satellite hardware
Carissa Bryce Christensen; Carie A. Mullins; Linda A. Williams
Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Forecasting model.
This report documents The Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Water Forecasting model. The model has been constructed using Powersim Studio (PS), a software package designed to investigate complex systems where flows and accumulations are central to the system. Here PS has been used as a platform for modeling various aspects of Nambe Pueblo's current and future water use. The model contains three major components, the Water Forecast Component, Irrigation Scheduling Component, and the Reservoir Model Component. In each of the components, the user can change variables to investigate the impacts of water management scenarios on future water use. The Water Forecast Component includes forecasting for industrial, commercial, and livestock use. Domestic demand is also forecasted based on user specified current population, population growth rates, and per capita water consumption. Irrigation efficiencies are quantified in the Irrigated Agriculture component using critical information concerning diversion rates, acreages, ditch dimensions and seepage rates. Results from this section are used in the Water Demand Forecast, Irrigation Scheduling, and the Reservoir Model components. The Reservoir Component contains two sections, (1) Storage and Inflow Accumulations by Categories and (2) Release, Diversion and Shortages. Results from both sections are derived from the calibrated Nambe Reservoir model where historic, pre-dam or above dam USGS stream flow data is fed into the model and releases are calculated.
Brainard, James Robert
Thermionic modules
DOE Patents (OSTI)
Modules of assembled microminiature thermionic converters (MTCs) having high energy-conversion efficiencies and variable operating temperatures manufactured using MEMS manufacturing techniques including chemical vapor deposition. The MTCs incorporate cathode to anode spacing of about 1 micron or less and use cathode and anode materials having work functions ranging from about 1 eV to about 3 eV. The MTCs also exhibit maximum efficiencies of just under 30%, and thousands of the devices and modules can be fabricated at modest costs.
King, Donald B. (Albuquerque, NM); Sadwick, Laurence P. (Salt Lake City, UT); Wernsman, Bernard R. (Clairton, PA)
Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 1999 - Residential Demand Module
residential.gif (5487 bytes) residential.gif (5487 bytes) The NEMS Residential Demand Module forecasts future residential sector energy requirements based on projections of the number of households and the stock, efficiency, and intensity of use of energy-consuming equipment. The Residential Demand Module projections begin with a base year estimates of the housing stock, the types and numbers of energy-consuming appliances servicing the stock, and the unit energy consumption by appliance (or UECin million Btu per household per year). The projection process adds new housing units to the stock, determines the equipment installed in new units, retires existing housing units, and retires and replaces appliances. The primary exogenous drivers for the module are housing starts by type (single-family, multifamily and mobile homes) and Census Division and prices for each energy source for each of the nine Census Divisions. The Residential Demand Module also requires projections of available equipment over the forecast horizon. Over time, equipment efficiency tends to increase because of general technological advances and also because of Federal and/or state efficiency standards. As energy prices and available equipment changes over the forecast horizon, the module includes projected changes to the type and efficiency of equipment purchased as well as projected changes in the usage intensity of the equipment stock.
Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2000 - Residential Demand Module
Residential Demand Module forecasts future residential sector energy requirements based on projections of the number of households and the stock, efficiency, and intensity of use of energy-consuming equipment. The Residential Demand Module projections begin with a base year estimates of the housing stock, the types and numbers of energy-consuming appliances servicing the stock, and the unit energy consumption by appliance (or UECin million Btu per household per year). The projection process adds new housing units to the stock, determines the equipment installed in new units, retires existing housing units, and retires and replaces appliances. The primary exogenous drivers for the module are housing starts by type (single-family, multifamily and mobile homes) and Census Division and prices for each energy source for each of the nine Census Divisions. The Residential Demand Module also requires projections of available equipment over the forecast horizon. Over time, equipment efficiency tends to increase because of general technological advances and also because of Federal and/or state efficiency standards. As energy prices and available equipment changes over the forecast horizon, the module includes projected changes to the type and efficiency of equipment purchased as well as projected changes in the usage intensity of the equipment stock.
Final Report on California Regional Wind Energy Forecasting Project:Application of NARAC Wind Prediction System
Wind power is the fastest growing renewable energy technology and electric power source (AWEA, 2004a). This renewable energy has demonstrated its readiness to become a more significant contributor to the electricity supply in the western U.S. and help ease the power shortage (AWEA, 2000). The practical exercise of this alternative energy supply also showed its function in stabilizing electricity prices and reducing the emissions of pollution and greenhouse gases from other natural gas-fired power plants. According to the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), the world's winds could theoretically supply the equivalent of 5800 quadrillion BTUs of energy each year, which is 15 times current world energy demand (AWEA, 2004b). Archer and Jacobson (2005) also reported an estimation of the global wind energy potential with the magnitude near half of DOE's quote. Wind energy has been widely used in Europe; it currently supplies 20% and 6% of Denmark's and Germany's electric power, respectively, while less than 1% of U.S. electricity is generated from wind (AWEA, 2004a). The production of wind energy in California ({approx}1.2% of total power) is slightly higher than the national average (CEC & EPRI, 2003). With the recently enacted Renewable Portfolio Standards calling for 20% of renewables in California's power generation mix by 2010, the growth of wind energy would become an important resource on the electricity network. Based on recent wind energy research (Roulston et al., 2003), accurate weather forecasting has been recognized as an important factor to further improve the wind energy forecast for effective power management. To this end, UC-Davis (UCD) and LLNL proposed a joint effort through the use of UCD's wind tunnel facility and LLNL's real-time weather forecasting capability to develop an improved regional wind energy forecasting system. The current effort of UC-Davis is aimed at developing a database of wind turbine power curves as a function of wind speed and direction, using its wind tunnel facility at the windmill farm at the Altamont Pass. The main objective of LLNL's involvement is to provide UC-Davis with improved wind forecasts to drive the parameterization scheme of turbine power curves developed from the wind tunnel facility. Another objective of LLNL's effort is to support the windmill farm operation with real-time wind forecasts for the effective energy management. The forecast skill in capturing the situation to meet the cut-in and cutout speed of given turbines would help reduce the operation cost in low and strong wind scenarios, respectively. The main focus of this report is to evaluate the wind forecast errors of LLNL's three-dimensional real-time weather forecast model at the location with the complex terrain. The assessment of weather forecast accuracy would help quantify the source of wind energy forecast errors from the atmospheric forecast model and/or wind-tunnel module for further improvement in the wind energy forecasting system.
Chin, H S
Mid-range energy-forecasting system: structure, forecasts, and critique
The Mid-Range Energy Forecasting System (MEFS) is a large-scale, interdisciplinary model of the US energy system maintained by the US Department of Energy. MEFS provides long-run regional forecasts of delivered prices for electricity, coal, gasoline, residual, distillate, and natural gas. A number of sets of MEFS forecasts are usually issued, each set corresponding to a different scenario. Because it forecasts prices and since these forecasts are regularly disseminated, MEFS is of considerable practical interest. A critical guide of the model's output for potential users is provided in this paper. The model's logic is described, the latest forecasts from MEFS are presented, and the reasonableness of both the forecasts and the methodology are critically evaluated. The manner in which MEFS interfaces with the Oil Market Simulation Model, which forecasts crude oil price, is also discussed. The evaluation concludes that while there are serious problems with MEFS, selective use can prove very helpful. 17 references, 1 figure, 2 tables.
DeSouza, G.
Forecasting Solar Radiation -- Preliminary Evaluation of an Approach Based upon the National Forecast Database
Our objective is to develop, and undertake a preliminary evaluation of a simple solar radiation forecast model using sky cover predictions from the National Digital Forecast Database as an input. This report describes the model and presents a limited evaluation of its performance against ground-measured and satellite-derived irradiances in Albany, New York.
Perez, R.; Moore, K.; Wilcox, S.; Renne, D.; Zelenka, A.
Maintaining the Role of Humans in the Forecast Process: Analyzing the Psyche of Expert Forecasters
The Second Forum on the Future Role of the Human in the Forecast Process occurred on 2�3 August 2005 at the American Meteorological Society's Weather Analysis and Forecasting Conference in Washington, D.C. The forum consisted of three sessions. ...
Neil A. Stuart; David M. Schultz; Gary Klein
Developing a Practical Forecasting Screener for Domestic Violence Incidents for the Los Angeles County Sheriff's Department
Developing a Practical Forecasting Screener for Domesticdevelop a state-of-the- art forecasting tool to predict suchto be used solely for forecasting. Whether these perceptions
Berk, Richard; He, Yan; Sorenson, Susan B.
Hydrologic scales, cloud variability, remote sensing, and models: Implications for forecasting snowmelt and streamflow
econ. WEATHER AND FORECASTING Environmental decisions (1993seasonal, and WEATHER AND FORECASTING V OLUME 19 spatialfor details. WEATHER AND FORECASTING V OLUME 19 T ABLE 2.
Simpson, James J; Dettinger, M D; Gehrke, F; McIntire, T J; Hufford, G L
Richard Berk; Yan He; Susan B. Sorenson
Reliable before-fabrication forecasting of expected surface slope distributions for x-ray optics
Reliable before-fabrication forecasting of expected surfacefor highly reliable forecasting of the expected surfaceaccuracy of this type of forecasting by comparing the power
Yashchuk, Yekaterina V.
Berk, Richard; Sorenson, Susan B.; He, Yan
Calibration of a distributed flood forecasting model with input uncertainty using a Bayesian framework
Calibrated probabilistic forecasting using ensemble modelSutcliffe (1970), River flow forecasting through conceptuala Distributed Flood Forecasting Model with Input Uncertainty
Li, M.
Implementing Innovation in Planning Practice: The Case of Travel Demand Forecasting
Urban Travel Demand Forecasting Project. Institute ofTRB. Metropolitan Travel Forecasting: Current Practice andPurvis. Regional Travel Forecasting Model System for the San
Newmark, Gregory Louis
Controlling inventory by improving demand forecasting within the alcoholic beverage industry : a case study.
??This thesis explores how combing statistical demand forecasting methods and causal forecasting methods with judgmental forecasts via a Sales and Operation Planning process can improve� (more)
Deng, Xiaomu
Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix C: Demand Forecast
Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix C: Demand Forecast Energy Demand................................................................................................................................. 1 Demand Forecast Methodology.................................................................................................. 3 New Demand Forecasting Model for the Sixth Plan
Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Chapter 3: Electricity Demand Forecast
Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Chapter 3: Electricity Demand Forecast Summary............................................................................................................ 2 Sixth Power Plan Demand Forecast................................................................................................ 4 Demand Forecast Range
Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast
Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast Introduction................................................................................................................................. 3 Price Forecasts............................................................................................................................... 12 Oil Price Forecast Range
Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix B: Economic Forecast
Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix B: Economic Forecast Role of the Economic Forecast.................................................................................. 19 Forecasting Commercial Floor Space Requirements
Isocurvature forecast in the anthropic axion window
We explore the cosmological sensitivity to the amplitude of isocurvature fluctuations that would be caused by axions in the "anthropic window" where the axion decay constant f_a >> 10^12 GeV and the initial misalignment angle Theta_i << 1. In a minimal Lambda-CDM cosmology extended with subdominant scale-invariant isocurvature fluctuations, existing data constrain the isocurvature fraction to alpha < 0.09 at 95% C.L. If no signal shows up, Planck can improve this constraint to 0.042 while an ultimate CMB probe limited only by cosmic variance in both temperature and E-polarisation can reach 0.017, about a factor of five better than the current limit. In the parameter space of f_a and H_I (Hubble parameter during inflation) we identify a small region where axion detection remains within the reach of realistic cosmological probes.
J. Hamann; S. Hannestad; G. G. Raffelt; Y. Y. Y. Wong
Model documentation report: Residential sector demand module of the national energy modeling system
This report documents the objectives, analytical approach, and development of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Residential Sector Demand Module. The report catalogues and describes the model assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and FORTRAN source code. This reference document provides a detailed description for energy analysts, other users, and the public. The NEMS Residential Sector Demand Module is currently used for mid-term forecasting purposes and energy policy analysis over the forecast horizon of 1993 through 2020. The model generates forecasts of energy demand for the residential sector by service, fuel, and Census Division. Policy impacts resulting from new technologies, market incentives, and regulatory changes can be estimated using the module. 26 refs., 6 figs., 5 tabs.
Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Actual vs. Forecasts Available formats Excel (.xls) for printable spreadsheet data (Microsoft Excel required) PDF (Acrobat Reader required) Table 2. Total Energy Consumption HTML, Excel, PDF Table 3. Total Petroleum Consumption HTML, Excel, PDF Table 4. Total Natural Gas Consumption HTML, Excel, PDF Table 5. Total Coal Consumption HTML, Excel, PDF Table 6. Total Electricity Sales HTML, Excel, PDF Table 7. Crude Oil Production HTML, Excel, PDF Table 8. Natural Gas Production HTML, Excel, PDF Table 9. Coal Production HTML, Excel, PDF Table 10. Net Petroleum Imports HTML, Excel, PDF Table 11. Net Natural Gas Imports HTML, Excel, PDF Table 12. Net Coal Exports HTML, Excel, PDF Table 13. World Oil Prices HTML, Excel, PDF
EIA-Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook - Industrial Demand Module
Industrial Demand Module Industrial Demand Module Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2007 Industrial Demand Module The NEMS Industrial Demand Module estimates energy consumption by energy source (fuels and feedstocks) for 21 manufacturing and 6 nonmanufacturing industries. The manufacturing industries are further subdivided into the energy-intensive manufacturing industries and nonenergy-intensive manufacturing industries. The manufacturing industries are modeled through the use of a detailed process flow or end use accounting procedure, whereas the nonmanufacturing industries are modeled with substantially less detail (Table 17). The Industrial Demand Module forecasts energy consumption at the four Census region level (see Figure 5); energy consumption at the Census Division level is estimated by allocating the Census region forecast using the SEDS25 data.
Photovoltaic module and module arrays
A photovoltaic (PV) module including a PV device and a frame. The PV device has a PV laminate defining a perimeter and a major plane. The frame is assembled to and encases the laminate perimeter, and includes leading, trailing, and side frame members, and an arm that forms a support face opposite the laminate. The support face is adapted for placement against a horizontal installation surface, to support and orient the laminate in a non-parallel or tilted arrangement. Upon final assembly, the laminate and the frame combine to define a unitary structure. The frame can orient the laminate at an angle in the range of 3.degree.-7.degree. from horizontal, and can be entirely formed of a polymeric material. Optionally, the arm incorporates integral feature(s) that facilitate interconnection with corresponding features of a second, identically formed PV module.
Botkin, Jonathan (El Cerrito, CA); Graves, Simon (Berkeley, CA); Lenox, Carl J. S. (Oakland, CA); Culligan, Matthew (Berkeley, CA); Danning, Matt (Oakland, CA)
Communicating Uncertainty in Weather Forecasts: A Survey of the U.S. Public
Weather forecasts are inherently uncertain, and meteorologists have information about weather forecast uncertainty that is not readily available to most forecast users. Yet effectively communicating forecast uncertainty to nonmeteorologists ...
Rebecca E. Morss; Julie L. Demuth; Jeffrey K. Lazo
Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices
forecasts (or any other forecast, for that matter) in makingcase natural gas price forecast, but to also examine a wideAEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices
Bolinger, Mark A.
Natural Gas Prices Forecast Comparison--AEO vs. Natural Gas Markets
the accuracy of two methods to forecast natural gas prices:forecasting models along with the AEO forecast. Appendix ATable 1. Forecast Year AEO Predicted Price from 1996-2003
Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Lekov, Alex; Dale, Larry
FORECAST OF VACANCIES FORECAST OF VACANCIES Until end of 2014 (Issue No. 20) Page 2 OVERVIEW OF BASIC REQUIREMENTS FOR PROFESSIONAL VACANCIES IN THE IAEA Education, Experience and Skills: Professional staff at the P4-P5 levels: * Advanced university degree (or equivalent postgraduate degree); * 7 or 10 years, respectively, of experience in a field of relevance to the post; * Resource management experience; * Strong analytical skills; * Computer skills: standard Microsoft Office software; * Languages: Fluency in English. Working knowledge of other official languages (Arabic, Chinese, French, Russian, Spanish) advantageous; * Ability to work effectively in multidisciplinary and multicultural teams; * Ability to communicate effectively. Professional staff at the P1-P3 levels:
The aim of the present study is to investigate applicability of artificial intelligence techniques such as ANFIS (Adaptive Neuro?Fuzzy Inference System) in forecasting flood flow in a river system. The proposed technique combines the learning ability of neural network with the transparent linguistic representation of fuzzy system. The technique is applied to forecast discharge at a downstream station using flow information at various upstream stations. A total of three years data has been selected for the implementation of this model. ANFIS models with various input structures and membership functions are constructed
Nazrin Ullah; P. Choudhury
Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2000 - Coal Market Module
The NEMS Coal Market Module (CMM) provides forecasts of U.S. coal production, consumption, exports, distribution, and prices. The CMM comprises three functional areas: coal production, coal distribution, and coal exports. A detailed description of the CMM is provided in the EIA publication, Coal Market Module of the National Energy Modeling System 2000, DOE/EIA-M060(2000) January 2000. The NEMS Coal Market Module (CMM) provides forecasts of U.S. coal production, consumption, exports, distribution, and prices. The CMM comprises three functional areas: coal production, coal distribution, and coal exports. A detailed description of the CMM is provided in the EIA publication, Coal Market Module of the National Energy Modeling System 2000, DOE/EIA-M060(2000) January 2000. Key Assumptions Coal Production The coal production submodule of the CMM generates a different set of supply curves for the CMM for each year of the forecast. Separate supply curves are developed for each of 11 supply regions, and 12 coal types (unique combinations of thermal grade, sulfur content, and mine type). The modeling approach used to construct regional coal supply curves addresses the relationship between the minemouth price of coal and corresponding levels of coal production, labor productivity, and the cost of factor inputs (mining equipment, mine labor, and fuel requirements).
Building Energy Software Tools Directory: Degree Day Forecasts
Forecasts Forecasts Degree Day Forecasts example chart Quick and easy web-based tool that provides free 14-day ahead degree day forecasts for 1,200 stations in the U.S. and Canada. Degree Day Forecasts charts show this year, last year and three-year average. Historical degree day charts and energy usage forecasts are available from the same site. Keywords degree days, historical weather, mean daily temperature Validation/Testing Degree day data provided by AccuWeather.com, updated daily at 0700. Expertise Required No special expertise required. Simple to use. Users Over 1,000 weekly users. Audience Anyone who needs degree day forecasts (next 14 days) for the U.S. and Canada. Input Select a weather station (1,200 available) and balance point temperature. Output Charts show (1) degree day (heating and cooling) forecasts for the next 14
Energy Usage Forecasts Energy Usage Forecasts Energy Usage Forecasts Quick and easy web-based tool that provides free 14-day ahead energy usage forecasts based on the degree day forecasts for 1,200 stations in the U.S. and Canada. The user enters the daily non-weather base load and the usage per degree day weather factor; the tool applies the degree day forecast and displays the total energy usage forecast. Helpful FAQs explain the process and describe various options for the calculation of the base load and weather factor. Historical degree day reports and 14-day ahead degree day forecasts are available from the same site. Keywords degree days, historical weather, mean daily temperature, load calculation, energy simulation Validation/Testing Degree day data provided by AccuWeather.com, updated daily at 0700.
The Canadian Regional Data Assimilation and Forecasting System
This paper describes the recent changes to the regional data assimilation and forecasting system at the Canadian Meteorological Center. A major aspect is the replacement of the currently operational global variable resolution forecasting approach ...
Luc Fillion; Monique Tanguay; Ervig Lapalme; Bertrand Denis; Michel Desgagne; Vivian Lee; Nils Ek; Zhuo Liu; Manon Lajoie; Jean-Fran�ois Caron; Christian Pag�
Architect Of Severe Storm Forecasting: Colonel Robert C. Miller
The career of severe storm forecaster and teacher Colonel Robert Miller (1920�98) is historicallyreviewed and evaluated. His pathway to the position of recognized authority in severe storm forecasting is examined in light of his early education ...
John M. Lewis; Robert A. Maddox; Charlie A. Crisp
Forecasting the 12�14 March 1993 Superstorm
This paper describes the decision-making process used by the forecasters in the National Meteorological Center's Meteorological Operations Division and in Weather Forecast Offices of the National Weather Service to provide the successful ...
Louis W. Uccellini; Paul J. Kocin; Russell S. Schneider; Paul M. Stokols; Russell A. Dorr
A Nested Spectral Model for Hurricane Track Forecasting
A numerical method for analysing and forecasting a wide range of horizontal scales of motion is tested in a barotropic hurricane track forecast model. The numerical method uses cubic B-spline representations of variables on nested domains. The ...
Mark Demaria; Sim D. Aberson; Katsuyuki V. Ooyama; Stephen J. Lord
Does Distance from the Forecast Site Affect Skill?
An outstanding issue in the assessment of forecast skill (and value) is whether any advantage that can be obtained through regional knowledge not readily available to distant forecasters supersedes the leveling effect of information obtained by ...
Paul J. Roebber; Lance F. Bosart; Gregory S. Forbes
Skill in Precipitation Forecasting in the National Weather Service
All known long-term records of forecasting performance for different types of precipitation forecasts in the National Weather Service were examined for relative skill and secular trends in skill. The largest upward trends were achieved by local ...
Jerome P. Charba; William H. Klein
Extended-Range Probability Forecasts Based on Dynamical Model Output
A probability forecast has advantages over a deterministic forecast as the former offers information about the probabilities of various possible future states of the atmosphere. As physics-based numerical models find their success in modern ...
Jianfu Pan; Huug van den Dool
Potential to Improve Forecasting Accuracy: Advances in Supply Chain Management
Forecasting is a necessity almost in any operation. However, the tools of forecasting are still primitive in view of the great strides made by research and the increasing abundance of data made possible by automatic ...
Distributed Forcing of Forecast and Assimilation Error Systems
Temporally distributed deterministic and stochastic excitation of the tangent linear forecast system governing forecast error growth and the tangent linear observer system governing assimilation error growth is examined. The method used is to ...
Brian F. Farrell; Petros J. Ioannou
A Probability Model for Verifying Deterministic Forecasts of Extreme Events
This article proposes a method for verifying deterministic forecasts of rare, extreme events defined by exceedance above a high threshold. A probability model for the joint distribution of forecasts and observations, and based on extreme-value ...
Christopher A. T. Ferro
River Forecast Application for Water Management: Oil and Water?
Managing water resources generally and managing reservoir operations specifically have been touted as opportunities for applying forecasts to improve decision making. Previous studies have shown that the application of forecasts into water ...
Kevin Werner; Kristen Averyt; Gigi Owen
Statistical Extension of the National Hurricane Center 5-Day Forecasts
U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecasts for tropical cyclone tracks and wind speeds are extended in time to produce spatially disaggregated probability forecasts for landfall location and intensity, using a weighted bootstrap procedure. ...
Daniel S. Wilks; Charles J. Neumann; Miles B. Lawrence
The Effect of Probabilistic Information on Threshold Forecasts
The study reported here asks whether the use of probabilistic information indicating forecast uncertainty improves the quality of deterministic weather decisions. Participants made realistic wind speed forecasts based on historical information in ...
Susan Joslyn; Karla Pak; David Jones; John Pyles; Earl Hunt
The Science of NOAA's Operational Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service
NOAA's National Weather Service (NWS) is implementing a short- to long-range Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service (HEFS). The HEFS addresses the need to quantify uncertainty in hydrologic forecasts for flood risk management, water supply management, ...
Julie Demargne; Limin Wu; Satish Regonda; James Brown; Haksu Lee; Minxue He; Dong-Jun Seo; Robert Hartman; Henry D. Herr; Mark Fresch; John Schaake; Yuejian Zhu
Confidence Builders: Evaluating Seasonal Climate Forecasts from User Perspectives
Water managers, cattle ranchers, and wildland fire managers face several barriers to effectively using climate forecasts. Repeatedly, these decision makers state that they lack any quantitative basis for evaluating forecast credibility. That is ...
Holly C. Hartmann; Thomas C. Pagano; S. Sorooshian; R. Bales
Threshold Relative Humidity Duration Forecasts for Plant Disease Prediction
Duration of high relative humidity periods is an important component of many plant disease development models. Performance of forecasts of this quantity, based on the model output statistics 3-h temperature and dewpoint forecasts produced by the ...
Daniel S. Wilks; Karin W. Shen
Operations of the National Severe Storms Forecast Center
The National Severe Storms Forecast Center in Kansas City, Missouri, is composed of several operational forecasting units, all national in scope. It includes the Severe Local Storms Unit (SELS), the National Aviation Weather Advisory Unit (NAWAU),...
Frederick P. Ostby
Making Forecasts Meaningful: Explanations of Problematic Predictions in Northeast Brazil
This study illustrates the need to consider the multiple interpretations and experiences that influence how climate forecasts are evaluated in local contexts when assessing how useful forecasts can be for increasing the resilience of rural ...
A Short-Range Objective Nocturnal Temperature Forecasting Model
A relatively simple, objective, nocturnal temperature forecasting model suitable for freezing and near-freezing conditions has been designed so that a user, presumably a weather forecaster, can put in standard meteorological data at a particular ...
Robert A. Sutherland
The development of a statistical forecast model for Changma
Forecasting year-to-year variation in East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) precipitation is one of the most challenging tasks in climate prediction because predictors are not sufficiently well known and forecast skill by numerical models is poor. In ...
Seung-Eon Lee; Kyong-Hwan Seo
Early Warnings of Severe Weather from Ensemble Forecast Information
A system has been developed to give probabilistic warnings of severe-weather events for the United Kingdom (UK) on a regional and national basis, based on forecast output from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ...
T. P. Legg; K. R. Mylne
Toward an Integrated Seasonal Forecasting System for South America
This study proposes an objective integrated seasonal forecasting system for producing well-calibrated probabilistic rainfall forecasts for South America. The proposed system has two components: (i) an empirical model that uses Pacific and ...
C. A. S. Coelho; D. B. Stephenson; M. Balmaseda; F. J. Doblas-Reyes; G. J. van Oldenborgh
Neighborhood Verification: A Strategy for Rewarding Close Forecasts
High-resolution forecasts may be quite useful even when they do not match the observations exactly. Neighborhood verification is a strategy for evaluating the �closeness� of the forecast to the observations within space�time neighborhoods rather ...
Elizabeth E. Ebert
Some Remarks on the Reliability of Categorical Probability Forecasts
Studies on forecast evaluation often rely on estimating limiting observed frequencies conditioned on specific forecast probabilities (the reliability diagram or calibration function). Obviously, statistical estimates of the calibration function ...
Jochen Br�cker
Experimental Dynamical Seasonal Forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Activity at IRI
The International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) has been issuing experimental seasonal tropical cyclone activity forecasts for several ocean basins since early 2003. In this paper the method used to obtain these forecasts is ...
Suzana J. Camargo; Anthony G. Barnston
Probabilistic Wind Vector Forecasting Using Ensembles and Bayesian Model Averaging
Probabilistic forecasts of wind vectors are becoming critical as interest grows in wind as a clean and renewable source of energy, in addition to a wide range of other uses, from aviation to recreational boating. Unlike other common forecasting ...
J. McLean Sloughter; Tilmann Gneiting; Adrian E. Raftery
The Contributions of Education and Experience to Forecast Skill
An analysis of nine semesters of temperature and precipitation forecasts at the State University of New York at Albany has been conducted with the goal of investigating the dependence of forecasting skill on education and experience. The results ...
An Improved Operational System for Forecasting Precipitation Type
A Model Output Statistics system for forecasting the conditional probability of precipitation type (PoPT) became operational within the National Weather Service in September 1978. Forecasts are provided for three precipitation type categories: ...
Joseph R. Bocchieri; George J. Maglaras
The Application of Signal Detection Theory to Weather Forecasting Behavior
A variety of measures are used to judge the skill and accuracy with which forecasters predict the weather and to verify forecasts: Such measures can confound accuracy with decision strategy and sometimes give conflicting indications of ...
Lewis O. Harvey Jr.; Kenneth R. Hammond; Cynthia M. Lusk; Ernest F. Mross
Univariate Modeling and Forecasting of Monthly Energy Demand Time Series
in this report. #12;i ABSTRACT These electricity demand forms and instructions ask load-serving entities and Instructions for Electricity Demand Forecasts. California Energy Commission, Electricity Supply Analysis.................................................................................................................................7 Form 1 Historic and Forecast Electricity Demand
Real-Time Data Assimilation for Operational Ensemble Streamflow Forecasting
Operational flood forecasting requires that accurate estimates of the uncertainty associated with model-generated streamflow forecasts be provided along with the probable flow levels. This paper demonstrates a stochastic ensemble implementation ...
Jasper A. Vrugt; Hoshin V. Gupta; Breannd�n� Nuall�in; Willem Bouten
A web-based Hong Kong tourism demand forecasting system
Accurate predictions of future business activities are important for business decision-making. As a consequence, powerful and simple forecasting processes are urgently pursued by decision-makers. This study presents a tourism demand forecasting system ...
Haiyan Song; Zixuan Gao; Xinyan Zhang; Shanshan Lin
Comparative Forecast Evaluation: Graphical Gaussian Models and Sufficiency Relations
This paper deals with the comparative evaluation of categorical forecasts supposing that forecasts and observations are continuous variables and have a jointly normal distribution. An information content approach based on the well-established ...
Ulrich Callies
Forecast-Error Statistics for Homogeneous and Inhomogeneous Observation Networks
Objective analysis procedures such as statistical interpolation require reliable estimates of forecast-error statistics in order to optimize the analysis weights. Reasonably good estimates of the forecast-error statistics can be obtained from ...
Roger Daley
U.S. Regional Demand Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS
Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS National Climatic Data Center.with Changing Boundaries." Use of GIS to Understand Socio-Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS Appendix A. Map Results Gallery
Cohen, Jesse A.; Edwards, Jennifer L.; Marnay, Chris
A Neural Network Short-Term Forecast of Significant Thunderstorms
Case studies are the typical means by which meteorologists pass on their knowledge of how to solve a particular weather-forecasting problem to other forecasters. A case study helps others recognize an important pattern and enhances the ...
Donald W. McCann
Short-Term Forecast Validation of Six Models
The short-term forecast accuracy of six different forecast models over the western United States is described for January, February, and March 1996. Four of the models are operational products from the National Centers for Environmental ...
Bryan G. White; Jan Paegle; W. James Steenburgh; John D. Horel; Robert T. Swanson; Louis K. Cook; Daryl J. Onton; John G. Miles
Proper Scores for Probability Forecasts Can Never Be Equitable
Verification is an important part of any forecasting system. It is usually achieved by computing the value of some measure or score that indicates how good the forecasts are. Many possible verification measures have been proposed, and to choose ...
Ian T. Jolliffe; David B. Stephenson
How Essential is Hydrologic Model Calibration to Seasonal Streamflow Forecasting?
Hydrologic model calibration is usually a central element of streamflow forecasting based on the ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) method. Evaluation measures of forecast errors such as root-mean-square error (RMSE) are heavily influenced by ...
Xiaogang Shi; Andrew W. Wood; Dennis P. Lettenmaier
Empirical Correction of the NCEP Global Forecast System
This paper examines the extent to which an empirical correction method can improve forecasts of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) operational Global Forecast System. The empirical correction is based on adding a forcing ...
Xiaosong Yang; Timothy DelSole; Hua-Lu Pan
J.P. Finley: The First Severe Storms Forecaster
During the 19th century, while others were debating about the theory and morphology of tornadoes, Finley set out to prove that tornadoes, like other weather phenomena, could be forecast. He developed forecast rules and made experimental ...
Joseph G. Galway
On Peirce�s Motivation for Equitability in Forecast Verification
In 1884, Peirce proposed a new two-category score for deterministic forecasts. The score was motivated by the desire to estimate the number of correct forecasts based on sound reasoning, without being sensitive to the frequency distribution of any ...
Mark J. Rodwell
Factors Influencing Skill Improvements in the ECMWF Forecasting System
During the past 30 years the skill in ECMWF numerical forecasts has steadily improved. There are three major contributing factors: 1) improvements in the forecast model, 2) improvements in the data assimilation, and 3) the increased number of ...
Linus Magnusson; Erland K�ll�n
Using Wind Anomalies to Forecast East Coast Winter Storms
Forecasting major winter storms is a critical function for all weather services. Conventional model-derived fields from numerical weather prediction models most frequently utilized by operational forecasters, such as pressure level geopotential ...
Neil A. Stuart; Richard H. Grumm
Downscaling Ensemble Weather Predictions for Improved Week-2 Hydrologic Forecasting
This study investigates the use of large-scale ensemble weather predictions provided by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System [GFS; formerly known as Medium-Range Forecast (MRF)] for improving week-2 ...
Xiaoli Liu; Paulin Coulibaly
The Effectiveness of Weather Forecasts in Decision Making: An Example
Decision models involving prescribed fire (the use of fire as a silvicultural tool) were used to analyze the utility of four types of weather information as forecasts: climatology, current weather observations (used as a persistence forecast), ...
R. William Furman
Correcting Errors in Streamflow Forecast Ensemble Mean and Spread
When hydrological models are used for probabilistic streamflow forecasting in the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) framework, the deterministic components of the approach can lead to errors in the estimation of forecast uncertainty, as ...
Andrew W. Wood; John C. Schaake
Potential Economic Value of Ensemble-Based Surface Weather Forecasts
The possible economic value of the quantification of uncertainty in future ensemble-based surface weather forecasts is investigated using a formal, idealized decision model. Current, or baseline, weather forecasts are represented by probabilistic ...
Daniel S. Wilks; Thomas M. Hamill
Bayesian Approach to Decision Making Using Ensemble Weather Forecasts
The economic value of ensemble-based weather or climate forecasts is generally assessed by taking the ensembles at �face value.� That is, the forecast probability is estimated as the relative frequency of occurrence of an event among a limited ...
Richard W. Katz; Martin Ehrendorfer
Comparative Evaluation of Weather Forecasting Systems: Sufficiency, Quality, and Accuracy
The concept of sufficiency, originally introduced in the context of the comparison of statistical experiments, has recently been shown to provide a coherent basis for comparative evaluation of forecasting systems. Specifically, forecasting system ...
Martin Ehrendorfer; Allan H. Murphy
A Bayesian Approach to Predictor Selection for Seasonal Streamflow Forecasting
Statistical methods commonly used for forecasting climate and streamflows require the selection of appropriate predictors. Poorly designed predictor selection procedures can result in poor forecasts for independent events. This paper introduces a ...
David E. Robertson; Q. J. Wang
Interpretation of Rank Histograms for Verifying Ensemble Forecasts
Rank histograms are a tool for evaluating ensemble forecasts. They are useful for determining the reliability of ensemble forecasts and for diagnosing errors in its mean and spread. Rank histograms are generated by repeatedly tallying the rank of ...
One-Month Forecast Experiments�without Anomaly Boundary Forcings
A series of one-month forecasts were carried out for eight January cases, using a particular prediction model and prescribing climatological sea-surface temperature as the boundary condition. Each forecast is a stochastic prediction that consists ...
K. Miyakoda; J. Sirutis; J. Ploshay
Objective Limits on Forecasting Skill of Rare Events
A method for determining baselines of skill for the purpose of the verification of rare-event forecasts is described and examples are presented to illustrate the sensitivity to parameter choices. These �practically perfect� forecasts are designed ...
Nathan M. Hitchens; Harold E. Brooks; Michael P. Kay
Evaluation of Eta�RSM Ensemble Probabilistic Precipitation Forecasts
The accuracy of short-range probabilistic forecasts of quantitative precipitation (PQPF) from the experimental Eta�Regional Spectral Model ensemble is compared with the accuracy of forecasts from the Nested Grid Model�s model output statistics (...
Thomas M. Hamill; Stephen J. Colucci
Verification of Eta�RSM Short-Range Ensemble Forecasts
Motivated by the success of ensemble forecasting at the medium range, the performance of a prototype short-range ensemble forecast system is examined. The ensemble dataset consists of 15 case days from September 1995 through January 1996. There ...
Predictability and Information Theory. Part II: Imperfect Forecasts
This paper presents a framework for quantifying predictability based on the behavior of imperfect forecasts. The critical quantity in this framework is not the forecast distribution, as used in many other predictability studies, but the ...
Timothy DelSole
Impacts of the Midwestern Drought Forecasts of 2000
In March of 2000 (and again in April and May) NOAA issued long-range forecasts indicating that an existing Midwestern drought would continue and intensify through the upcoming summer. These forecasts received extensive media coverage and wide ...
Stanley A. Changnon
Use of the �Odds Ratio� for Diagnosing Forecast Skill
This study investigates ways of quantifying the skill in forecasts of dichotomous weather events. The odds ratio, widely used in medical studies, can provide a powerful way of testing the association between categorical forecasts and ...
David B. Stephenson
Emergency Response Transport Forecasting Using Historical Wind Field Pattern Matching
Historical pattern matching, or analog forecasting, is used to generate short-term mesoscale transport forecasts for emergency response at the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory. A simple historical pattern-matching algorithm ...
Roger G. Carter; Robert E. Keislar
Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2002 - Residential Demand Module
Residential Demand Module Residential Demand Module The NEMS Residential Demand Module forecasts future residential sector energy requirements based on projections of the number of households and the stock, efficiency, and intensity of use of energy-consuming equipment. The Residential Demand Module projections begin with a base year estimates of the housing stock, the types and numbers of energy-consuming appliances servicing the stock, and the unit energy consumption by appliance (or UECin million Btu per household per year). The projection process adds new housing units to the stock, determines the equipment installed in new units, retires existing housing units, and retires and replaces appliances. The primary exogenous drivers for the module are housing starts by type (single-family, multifamily and mobile homes) and
Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2001 - Residential Demand Module
Do Investors Forecast Fat Firms? Evidence from the Gold Mining Industry
Economists� Gold Price Forecasts,� Australian Journal ofDo Investors Forecast Fat Firms? Evidence from the Gold
Borenstein, Severin; Farrell, Joseph
residential and commercial electricity demand forecasts. The23 Electricity Demandand commercial electricity demand per census division from
Wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets.
Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts.
Botterud, A.; Wang, J.; Miranda, V.; Bessa, R. J.; Decision and Information Sciences; INESC Porto
Wind power forecasting in U.S. Electricity markets
Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts. (author)
Botterud, Audun; Wang, Jianhui; Miranda, Vladimiro; Bessa, Ricardo J.
Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions over Multiple Timescales (Presentation)
This presentation presents some statistical analysis of wind power forecast errors and error distributions, with examples using ERCOT data.
Hodge, B. M.; Milligan, M.
FORECASTING SOLAR RADIATION -- PRELIMINARY EVALUATION OF AN APPROACH BASED UPON THE NATIONAL, and undertake a preliminary evaluation of, a simple solar radiation forecast model using sky cover predictions experimental product from the United States National Weather Service (NWS) providing gridded forecasted
A novel knowledge discovery model for fishery forecasting
In the area of ocean fisheries research, a new research interest is to use marine environment factors for fishery forecasting. This paper proposes a novel knowledge discovery model for fishery forecasting that uses the Indian Ocean big-eye tuna fishery ... Keywords: extension data mining, fishery forecasting, fuzzy rules, support vector machines
Hongchun Yuan; Ying Li; Ying Chen
Artificial neural networks for electricity consumption forecasting considering climatic factors
This work develops Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) models applied to predict the consumption forecasting considering climatic factors. It is intended to verify the influence of climatic factors on the electricity consumption forecasting through the ... Keywords: artificial neural networks, electricity consumption forecasting
Francisco David Moya Chaves
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