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tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-149558092014-12-17T18:47:20.219-08:00Statistically SpeakingA quaint, esoteric, occasionally humorous perspective on sports.matthttp://email@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-14955809.post-21542673995923128632014-12-04T04:14:00.000-08:002014-12-04T04:14:00.553-08:00The Magnificent Seven: Week XVAlas, we have posted yet another subpar week, and with just one week to go in the regular season, it appears we will not finish the year with a winning record. Still, we have had a good time, and hopefully have not lost you too much money. Home teams in BOLD.

Last Week: 3-4
Overall: 47-51

Central Florida +7 East Carolina
The race for the crown in the American conference is yet to be decided. Memphis is in the clubhouse with a 7-1 mark and has clinched at least a share of the title. However, with one loss apiece, Central Florida and Cincinnati are still alive for a share of the title as well. If you are like me, and are pulling for sheer zaniness this weekend, Central Florida, Cincinnati, or Memphis could potentially grab one of the New Year's Six bowl games should Boise State lose in the Mountain West Championship Game. Yes, it is a long shot, but crazier things have happened. As for capping this game, were I a betting man, I would wager a significant amount on Central Florida. The Knights have one of the best mid-major defenses, and since losing to Connecticut on November 1st, have allowed just two offensive touchdowns in three games. East Carolina won't be held without an offensive score, but this spread should be closer to a pick 'em.

Arizona +14.5 Oregon @ Santa Clara
For the first time in the brief history of the Pac-12, the title game will be held at a neutral site instead of at the home of the team with the better conference record. A win by the Wildcats would not only give them their first outright Pac-10/12 title since joining the conference in 1978, it would also give them three wins over the Ducks in the past two seasons. For Oregon, a win certainly vaults them into the inaugural College Football Playoff, and would also give them their first conference title since 2011. It is unfair that some teams have to wait so long between championships. Arizona will keep this one close, but the Ducks will prevail sans a cover.

Marshall -12 Louisiana Tech
Despite their home loss to Western Kentucky last week, Marshall still has an incredible (unadjusted) profile. They outgained Conference USA opponents by over three yards per play (7.88 to 4.86)! Unfortunately, their dream season was shredded on a two-point conversion. Still, the Thundering Herd have a great deal to play for. A win here would give them their first conference championship since 2002. Plus, a solid performance by quarterback Rakeem Cato could land him an invite to New York for the Heisman ceremony. The Thundering Herd will be opposed by an improved Louisiana Tech team. The Bulldogs finished just 4-8 in Skip Holtz's first season in charge, but improved to 8-4 this season behind the best defense in Conference USA. Holtz has won a pair of Conference USA Championship Games, both times as an underdog, but I think the Herd will be too much here, particularly at home.

Iowa State +33.5 TCU
With the release of the latest college football rankings, TCU appears to be just a win away from locking up a playoff spot. Now all they have to do is get by an Iowa State team that has not won a conference game since the end of last season. Iowa State has played TCU tough in their two contests as Big 12 members, with the Cyclones upsetting the Horned Frogs in Fort Worth two years ago, and losing a close contest in Ames last season. This one won't be as competitive, but the Cyclones should hold the margin of defeat under 30.

Missouri +14.5 Alabama @ Atlanta
The newbies from the Big 12 have now won twice as many SEC East titles in three seasons as Kentucky, South Carolina, and Vanderbilt have combined to win in 23 seasons. The Tigers will be looking to exorcise a few demons from last year's title game when Auburn shredded their previously stout defense with nearly 700 yards of offense, including 545 on the ground. The Tigers enter this game once again boasting a stout defense, in fact the best in the SEC by yards per play. To be fair, the Tigers play in the SEC East, so some adjustment for strength of schedule is necessary, but the defense is still the strength of the team. This is especially true when considering quarterback Maty Mauk completed less than half his passes in five of eight SEC games. Alabama is clearly the better team, but as a double-digit favorite away from home, the Tide are 0-3 ATS this season. I think Missouri loves company, and keeps this one within two touchdowns.

Georgia Tech +4 Florida State @ Charlotte
I feel a little nervous jumping on that Georgia Tech bandwagon after their upset over Georgia last week. Everyone has been waiting patiently for Florida State to lose all season, and yet the Seminoles are unbeaten (and disrespected) as Championship Weekend approaches. If noting else, this game should be entertaining with two of the best offense in the ACC going head to head. The last time these two teams met was a classic (although no one was there to see it). Take the Jackets to win a tight one and open the door for either Ohio State or Baylor to sneak into the playoff picture.

Fresno State +21 Boise State
At the beginning of November, things looked bleak for the Fresno State Bulldogs. Fresh off a Mountain West title, the Bulldogs stood just 3-6 and were a loss away from missing a bowl for the first time under Tim DeRuyter. Then the Bulldogs reeled off three straight wins and thanks to their earlier win over San Diego State actually won the West division of the Mountain West. Unfortunately for the Bulldogs, it looks like they will enter bowl season with a losing record like Georgia Tech did in 2012. A win here would be a major upset, but a cover would not be unprecedented.matthttp://email@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-14955809.post-5290442248348765062014-11-25T18:52:00.003-08:002014-11-25T18:52:25.954-08:00The Magnificent Seven: Week XIVWell, it appears we cannot stand prosperity. After consecutive winning weeks got us back to .500, a 2-5 week makes a winning season unlikely. Still, we press on. Home teams in BOLD.

Last Week: 2-5
Overall: 44-47

Texas +6.5 TCU
The Big 12 seems built for controversy regarding head-to-head versus body of work. In 2008, a three-way tie in the south among Oklahoma, Texas, and Texas Tech had to be broken by the BCS rankings. Now, sans divisions, it appears we are headed toward more controversy regarding the inaugural College Football Playoff. Baylor beat TCU head-to-head on the field in Waco, but TCU has a tougher schedule, and arguably a superior body of work. Before we get ahead of ourselves, remember that potential controversies often have a way of working themselves out. That could certainly be the case on Thanksgiving night as TCU heads to Austin to take on the Longhorns. This is not a typical TCU team. The Horned Frogs have the best offense (in terms of yards per play) in the Big 12, and rank just sixth on defense. Meanwhile, Texas has the league's top-ranked defense and has shut down high-powered offenses like UCLA, Baylor, and Oklahoma already this season. Since joining the Big 12, TCU is just 1-6 ATS as a road favorite. Look for that trend to continue here as Texas keeps this one very close.

Rutgers +8.5 Maryland
The maiden voyage for both Rutgers and Maryland in the Big 10 has been marginally successful for both. Both have attained bowl eligibility, although most of Rutger's work was done in the non-conference. Rutgers did beat a down traditional power in Michigan, so there is something to be said for that. Maryland has already won four conference games and will be looking to post their first winning conference record since 2010 when Ralph Friedgen waddled the sideline. In a nice twist, Friedgen is now the offensive coordinator at...Rutgers of course. This spread is probably a field goal or so too high thanks to Maryland's upset win at Michigan last week. Rutgers has been pretty good as a road underdog under Kyle Flood, posting an 8-4 ATS mark with five outright upsets. Take the Knights to keep this one within a touchdown.

Penn State +13.5 Michigan State
As I mentioned earlier that this is not your typical TCU team, this is also not your typical Michigan State team. Most iterations of Sparty under Mark Dantonio are defense-oriented teams. This year's version ranks an above-average fifth in the Big 10 in yards per play allowed, but the offense has been the real strength of the team. Along with Ohio State and Wisconsin, the Spartans are the only Big 10 team averaging more than six yards per snap in league play. Penn State would kill for that kind of offensive firepower. Unfortunately, the Nittany Lions are dead last in the Big 10 in yards per play. The offensive line has been especially porous, allowing 39 sacks thus far on the year (122nd nationally). The Penn State defense has been nearly as robust as the offense has been putrid. The Nittany Lions lead the Big 10 in yards per play allowed, and against the dominant Ohio State offense in Happy Valley, held the Buckeyes to 17 points in regulation. Penn State probably lacks the offensive firepower to win here, but this spread is way too high.

BYU +4.5 Cal
For BYU, the 2014 season began with such promise. The Cougars opened the year by winning their first four games, rose to number 18 in the AP Poll, and had designs on an undefeated season. Alas, quarterback Taysom Hill was injured, and the defense had a few awful games. The Cougars lost four in a row at midseason, but have rebounded against a softer schedule to win their past three and clinch a ninth consecutive winning season under Bronco Mendenhall. While BYU goes for their eighth win of the season, Cal will be seeking their sixth and their first bowl bid since 2011. The Bears have significantly improved from their 1-11 campaign last season, but have lost five of their past six games after a 4-1 start. Cal has not covered as a home favorite since 2011! Granted, they have only been favored four times at home since then, but still, the Bears are far from a dominant home team. Take BYU to cover here and potentially keep the Bears home for the holidays.

Louisiana-Monroe +14.5 Georgia Southern
With a win here, Georgia Southern could attain the dubious distinction of being both the outright Sun Belt champion and not playing in the postseason. Since the Eagles are in their first season as a IA member, they are technically classified as a 'transitional' team and would need a waiver to play in a bowl. Unless some teams self-impose bowl bans in the last two weeks of the season, a scenario where the Eagles play in a bowl game us unlikely. Alas, they could take solace in becoming the first Sun Belt team to finish unbeaten in conference play since Arkansas State in 2011. Under first year coach Willie Fritz, the Eagles have gashed Sun Belt opponents and are averaging nearly seven yards per play against their conference brethren. I think the Eagles will get the win here, but Louisiana-Monroe is a healthy 10-5 ATS as a road underdog against teams from the Group of Five conferences since 2010. Take the Warhawks to keep this one within two touchdowns.

UTEP -4 Middle Tennessee State
Well, we whiffed on UTEP last week, but the one facet we should have considered regarding that game was the location. UTEP was on the road at Rice. Now they return home to try and solidify a bowl bid and clinch their first winning season since 2005. The Miners are unbeaten ATS at home this season, and are 4-0 ATS as a home favorite. Meanwhile, Middle Tennessee State is 1-4 straight up on the road and in their last road game fell to feeble Florida International. UTEP has a great deal to play for and in El Paso should win this game by at least a touchdown.

Utah State +9 Boise State
If you want to discuss perseverance, Utah State has it in spades. The Aggies are down to their fourth string quarterback thanks to a spate of injuries. However, like Kurt Warner before him, freshman Kent Myers has risen to the occasion and arguably played better than the man (or in this case men) he was replacing. The Aggies are a few closes losses (to Arkansas State and Colorado State) away from being in position to grab the big-time bowl berth that goes to the highest ranked member from the Group of Five. Ironically, one of the teams that beat Utah State will be pulling hard for the Aggies as the Rams from Colorado State need another Boise loss (in conjunction with their own win over Air Force) to gain entry to the Mountain West Championship Game. Boise State is just 7-15 ATS as a home favorite since joining the Mountain West in 2011. This game should be very close, and an upset by the Aggies would not shock me.matthttp://email@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-14955809.post-46483182883920553202014-11-21T04:01:00.001-08:002014-11-21T04:01:07.753-08:00The Magnificent Seven: Week XIIITwo winning weeks in a row has us back to .500 for the year. There are only three weeks left in the college football regular season. It always leaves us to soon. As always, home teams in bold.

Last Week: 5-2
Overall: 42-42

UTEP +9 Rice
Not to brag or anything, but I am currently reading a book. The book in question, Benching Jim Crow: The Rise and Fall of the Color Line in Southern College Sports, 1890-1980, is a good read for anyone interested in the history of amateur sports. Obviously, the title is a little verbose, but the book is a great historical analysis of the integration of college sports. One thing I discovered in reading the book (not related to integration at all), is that Bum Phillips coached UTEP for one season in 1962. Before he was 'Luv ya Blue', he was 'Luv ya U(TEP)'. Perhaps Bum saw the writing on the wall more than a half-century ago. It is hard to win in El Paso. However, perhaps the tide could be turning. Second year head coach Sean Kugler has the Miners bowl eligible with two games left to play. This is a stark improvement from last season, when the Miners won just a single conference game for their eighth consecutive losing season. Seeking to clinch their first winning season since 2005, the Miners head to Houston to take on a Rice team that is bowl eligible for the third consecutive season. Rice is probably the better team, and is playing at home, but this spread should be less than a touchdown. Take the Miners to dig in and keep this one close.

Purdue +2.5 Northwestern
The fates finally smiled on Northwestern last week. After losing eight of their previous ten one-score games, the Wildcats used a late surge, and questionable coaching by Brian Kelly, to stun the Irish in South Bend in overtime. The win bolstered Northwestern's bowl chances as they merely need to sweep Purdue and Illinois to reach six wins. With the Boilermakers and Illini combining for a 2-10 Big 10 record, that would seem a forgone conclusion. Ah, but let's not start licking our own lollipops just yet. Not only could a letdown be in store for the Wildcats, but the Boilermakers have also been exceedingly competitive in their second season under Darrell Hazell. In fact, since the ugly loss to Iowa, during which Austin Appleby replaced Danny Etling under center (or in the shotgun), Purdue has been a downright average football team. Unfortunately, the schedule has featured a quartet of teams that are either currently ranked, or were ranked at some point in the season (Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, and Wisconsin). The Boilermakers lost all four of those games, but covered three times, and also pounded Illinois for good measure. Northwestern struggles big time moving the football, so don't be surprised if Purdue is able to pull off an outright upset here.

Western Michigan -1 Central Michigan
Don't look now, but statistically, these could be the two best teams in the MAC. For Central Michigan, the Chippewas have steadily improved over the half decade that Dan Enos has been in charge. At 7-4, they have already achieved the most regular season wins under his guidance, and a win here, coupled with a lot of help could send them back to the MAC Championship Game for the first time since 2009. The other directional Michigan school has risen rapidly under second year coach P.J. Fleck. After winning just a single game (by a single point) in Fleck's first season, the Broncos are 7-3 and winners of five straight. The last four wins in the streak have all come by at least twelve points. The Broncos still need some help to notch their first ever berth in the MAC Championship Game, but with this spread hovering below a field goal, they are an easy play here.

Ole Miss -2.5 Arkansas
Last week, I advised you to go against the Hogs as they were somehow laying points against LSU. Please accept my sincerest apologies for that mistake. I failed to realize that Cam Cameron was somehow coaching worse than he did as head man of the Dolphins. Ole Miss, even without receiver Laquon Treadwell, should be able to move the ball against one of the worst defenses in the SEC. Despite the shutout win over LSU, Arkansas only managed 264 yards of their own, at just over four yards per play. The Ole Miss defense has slipped a bit since their early season domination, but they should do enough to win this game by at least a touchdown.

New Mexico State +8 Louisiana-Monroe
Louisiana-Monroe, the underdog darlings of the 2012 football season, have clinched a losing season. However, despite already owning seven losses, the Warhawks did defeat a Power Five conference team for the third consecutive season. Granted, that team was Wake Forest (my alma mater's second loss to the Warhawks in as many seasons), but it is a solid achievement nonetheless considering the Warhawks won just three such games from 1994 through 2011 (although the one in 2007 was quite infamous). The Warhawks have a hard time moving the ball, even against Sun Belt foes, ranking last in the conference in yards per play. Their defense is average by Sun Belt standards, but with such a low-wattage offense, they should not be favored by more than a touchdown, especially on the road. In fact, the Warhawks have not won a game by more than a touchdown since last Halloween. Look for the Aggies to keep this one close.

Missouri +3.5 Tennessee
You want a crazy, I mean, really ridiculous stat? Missouri, a team that finished 2-6 in their inaugural season in the SEC, has won seven straight SEC road games! Under Nick Saban, Alabama won nine straight from 2008 through 2010 and eleven straight from 2011 through 2013. Under Urban Meyer, Florida won ten straight from 2007 through 2010. Those are the only other more lengthy road winning streaks over the last decade in the SEC. Since joining the SEC in 2012, the Tigers are 7-2 ATS as a road underdog, with six outright road upsets. Missouri is still in control of its destiny in regards to the SEC title, so motivation should not be a factor here. Look for the Tigers to continue their stellar road play and make Tennessee have to sweat out one more week before becoming bowl eligible.

Oregon State +6.5 Washington
2014 has not played out exactly how the Beavers and Huskies had hoped in the preseason. Coming off consecutive bowl appearances, the Beavers, even with the loss of stud receiver Brandin Cooks to the NFL, hoped to continue shredding west coast defenses with senior quarterback Sean Mannion. Without Cooks the offense has declined and the team still needs a win in one of its final two games to qualify for a bowl (probably don't want to head into the Civil War with Oregon needing a win to get bowl eligible). The Huskies have had similar issues on offense sans quarterback Keith Price and running back Bishop Sankey. The Huskies opened the year with four consecutive wins against a good IAA team (Eastern Washington) and a trio of IA bottom dwellers (Hawaii, Illinois, and Georgia State). Once conference play began, the Huskies offensive difficulties outweighed their defensive acumen, and they too need to win one of their final two games to be assured of a postseason invite. Both these teams are about as statistically equivalent as one can get. Consequently, take the team catching nearly a touchdown, even though they are on the road.matthttp://firstname.lastname@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-14955809.post-16706002222049274932014-11-13T19:13:00.004-08:002014-11-13T19:13:30.241-08:00The Magnificent Seven: Week XIIWell, we finally came through with a winning week, finishing 4-3. We were just a half a point away from a 5-2 week before LSU folded in overtime against Alabama. C'est la vie. We are now 37-40 with four weeks to go. Let's try and even that record this week. As always, home teams in bold.

Last Week: 4-3
Overall: 37-40

Western Kentucky -8 Army
This spread has been falling since it was released on Sunday. It started out at ten points or so, and is now just above a touchdown. I'm a little confused at the love Army is receiving after their 'upset' of Connecticut last week. The win was the third of the season for the Black Knights, which matches their total from last season and is tied for their highest seasonal win total since 2010. The Black Knights should eclipse that threshold next week against Fordham, but I don't see them keeping this one especially close. Western Kentucky has been outstanding on offense this season, scoring at least 34 points in every game except one. However, they have also allowed at least 27 points in every game. Hence their 4-5 record. Army has been pretty forgiving on defense themselves, allowing nearly 33 points per game and over six yards per play. Even the historically bad Wake Forest offense averaged over five yards per play against the Black Knights. I expect this to be a high-scoring game, but Western Kentucky should win this one by double-digits.

Iowa -3.5 Illinois
Perhaps this spread is an overreaction to the transitive property (which does not exist in sports by the way). In one of their few solid performances under Tim Beckman, the Illini upset Minnesota at home three weeks ago. Then last week, those same Golden Gophers eviscerated the Hawkeyes. The betting public is still down on Iowa for that egg they laid. Illinois has the worst defense in the Big 10, as they are currently allowing over seven yards per play to their Big 10 opponents. The spread should be about a touchdown. Take the Hawkeyes to cover here.

South Carolina +6.5 Florida
If I had told you before the season that one of these teams would enter this game needing to spring an upset in their final three games to qualify for a bowl, most would probably have pegged the Gators as that underachiever. Certainly, Florida is not where they were at their peak under Urban Meyer, but the Gators can clinch a winning season with a victory against the Gamecocks (assuming they beat Eastern Kentucky next week). The Gators enter having won two in a row, and still have an outside shot at getting to the SEC Championship Game, which is more an indictment of the SEC East than praise for the Gators. South Carolina enters having lost four of five (and four in a row in the SEC) after a 3-1 start. The defense is among the worst in the SEC, allowing more yards per play than every team except Texas A&M and Arkansas. Despite Florida's offensive struggles, the Gators should be able to move the ball against the Gamecocks as comparable bad offenses (Vanderbilt and Tennessee) certainly have. Despite the failings of the defense, the Gamecocks have been competitive thanks to their fantastic offense. The offense has racked up at least 35 points in six of their past seven SEC games. Despite their poor record, South Carolina has been effective as an underdog ATS in a small sample size this season, winning outright against Georgia and fighting Auburn to the bitter end. Florida is just 4-8 ATS as a home favorite since 2012, and with this spread close to a touchdown, I expect the Gamecocks to keep it close.

Wisconsin -6 Nebraska
This game will go a long way toward determining the Big 10 West's division. Currently these two teams are tied with Minnesota at 4-1. Unfortunately for the Gophers, they play both of these teams on the road to close the regular season, as well as Ohio State this weekend, so the winner of this game will be in the driver's seat. After a rough start to the conference season that saw them lose to Northwestern for the first time since 2009 and struggling with Illinois in a ten-point home win, the Badgers have gone on their usual Big 10 steamrolling tour. They have won their past three games against Maryland, Rutgers, and Purdue by a cumulative 123-23 score. Nebraska has quietly won eight of nine, with the lone loss coming at Michigan State. The Huskers are looking to lose less than four games for the first time under head coach Bo Pelini. In their three previous meetings as Big 10 foes, the home team has won each game, with the Badgers taking the rubber match in the 2012 Big 10 Championship Game. Wisconsin's two wins came by 31 and 39 points respectively, while Nebraska's win was a much closer three-point margin. This is the smallest home spread for Wisconsin under second-year coach Gary Andersen. Under Anderson, the Badgers are a healthy 7-3 ATS as a home favorite (typically large number). Look for the Badgers to win this one by at least double-digits.

Auburn +2.5 Georgia
As I discussed over the summer, Auburn should be expected to be less than stellar ATS as a double-digit favorite. The Tigers are just 2-3 ATS as a large favorite, including last week's outright home loss to Texas A&M. They are also just 3-5 overall ATS as a favorite of any kind. However, when the Tigers are catching points, they have been money in the bank under Guz Malzahn. Including last year's BCS Championship Game, Auburn is a healthy 6-0 ATS with four outright upsets, including one two weeks ago against Ole Miss. This line is probably too much of an overreaction to Auburn's loss at home to Texas A&M. Plus, while Mark Richt has not developed the reputation Les Miles enjoys in regards to failing to cover the spread, the Bulldogs are just 33-42-4 ATS since 2005. Bank on Malzahn and the Tigers getting back on track here.

Missouri +5.5 Texas A&M
It's amazing how one week can shift your perception of a team. Last week at this time, the Aggies were coming off a less than decisive win against Louisiana-Monroe, had lost three straight SEC games by at least 15 points, and were three touchdown underdogs against the defending conference champion. Then the Aggies jumped out a big lead, made a timely special teams play, enjoyed a little snapping good fortune, and now are 7-3 with two home games left. But has anything really changed with the Aggies? Sure, they score a lot of points (sometimes), but they also have one of the worst defenses in the SEC. On the other sideline, Missouri is the polar opposite of Texas A&M. They combine the worst offense in the conference with the best defense. Texas A&M's SEC games have seen about 69 points scored on average between the Aggies and their opponents. Meanwhile, Missouri's SEC games have seen the Tigers and their opponents combine for roughly 40 points per game. Missouri's defense should be able to hold the Aggies in check and the Tigers have been money in the bank as a road underdog since joining the SEC, going 6-2 ATS in the role.

LSU +2.5 Arkansas
So let me get this straight. One of these teams is ranked in the top-25 of the current AP Poll and the other has not won an SEC game since 2012. And of course, the team currently riding a 17-game conference losing streak is favored. During their 17-game skid, Arkansas has had a few close calls, losing seven games by a touchdown or less, including their last two against LSU. In both of those games LSU was a double-digit favorite. They struggled, but won the Les Miles way. Were LSU giving points, I would advise you to avoid this game at all costs. However, since the Tigers are catching nearly a field goal here, they should be a solid play. LSU will be able to move the ball against an Arkansas defense that is statistically the worst in the SEC. After playing Ole Miss and Alabama in their last two games, LSU should get out some of their collective offensive frustrations on the Hogs.matthttp://email@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-14955809.post-4062188380983056362014-11-07T03:43:00.001-08:002014-11-07T03:43:32.793-08:00The Magnificent Seven: Week XIA second consecutive 2-5 mark has your humble narrator scrambling to just finish with a .500 record for the season. The yearly mark is now a poor 33-37. We'll try and do better this week. As always, home teams in bold.

Last Week: 2-5
Overall: 33-37

Georgia Tech -3.5 NC State
Last week, NC State finally ended a rather long streak of futility, in winning their first conference game since 2012 (a streak of 12 consecutive conference defeats). Thanks to an incredibly soft non-conference slate, the Wolfpack need just a single victory to become bowl eligible. Despite their upset win over Syracuse, the Wolfpack remain a below average team that is superlative at nothing. They rank twelfth in the fourteen-team ACC in yards per play (ahead of Syracuse and Wake Forest) and eighth in the conference in yards per play allowed. Their opponent on Saturday is an extreme team. The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets are bowl eligible yet again, and have a chance to play in the ACC Championship Game for the second time in three seasons. The Yellow Jackets have the best offense in the ACC in terms of yards per play, but are dead last in the conference in yards per play allowed. Their defense has particularly let them down in their two defeats. The Yellow Jackets allowed 31 and 48 points in consecutive losses to Duke and North Carolina that may eventually cost them the Coastal Division title. NC State will be able to move the ball against the Georgia Tech defense, but the Yellow Jackets should be able to outscore the Wolfpack and win by at least a touchdown.

Tulane +17.5 Houston
Two upsets last week (Temple over East Carolina and Connecticut over Central Florida) threw the American Athletic Conference into chaos. Five teams, Cincinnati, East Carolina, Houston, Memphis, and UCF, are all 3-1 in the league at the halfway point. This should make for an exciting final month. Unfortunately, the champion will probably not be able to snatch a major bowl bid for the Group of Five conferences. Of the teams currently tied atop the American Conference, Houston is probably the weakest. The Cougars have real issues moving the football, averaging under five yards per play in conference games (eighth among eleven teams). This spread appears to be about a touchdown too high. Take the Green Wave to cover this large number.

Texas +3.5 West Virginia
The maiden voyage for the Longhorns under Charlie Strong has seen its share of ups and downs. The Longhorns were blown out by BYU, but hung close with UCLA and Oklahoma, and limited Baylor's explosive offense in a closer than the score indicated defeat. Can the Longhorns finally break through against a ranked team under Strong? The opponent, West Virginia, has three losses, but those defeats have come at the hands of three of the best teams in college football: Alabama, Oklahoma, and TCU. The Mountaineers also have three road wins this season, matching their total for their first two seasons in the Big 12. The key point to remember is that two of those wins were very close and were decided on last second field goals (Maryland and Texas Tech). Also keep in mind Texas obliterated that same Red Raider team (on the same field) just last week and that West Virginia could be in a letdown spot after nearly upsetting TCU last week. Take the Longhorns here, and don't be surprised if they pull off an outright upset.

UNLV +6 Air Force
One season after playing in their first bowl game in thirteen years, the encore has not gone according to plan for UNLV. The Rebels are just 2-7 and have clinched their tenth losing season in the last eleven years. On the other sideline, Air Force has rebounded from a winless Mountain West campaign in 2013 to become bowl eligible for the seventh time in eight seasons under Troy Calhoun. The Falcons have also wrapped up the Commander in Chief Trophy by beating their service academy rivals Army and Navy. However, despite their 6-2 start, Air Force is probably a little over-valued. The Falcons are last in the Mountain West in yards per play and only middle of the pack (seventh) in yards per play allowed. Plus, UNLV has been stellar as a home underdog under Bobby Hauck, going 13-6-1 ATS in those situations. Take the Rebels to cover here, and don't be surprised if they pull off the outright upset.

LSU +6.5 Alabama
Les Miles and the LSU Tigers find themselves in both an unfamiliar situation and a position they are very acquainted with. Under Miles, the Tigers have been home underdogs just five other times. However, three of those instances came against Alabama (as led by Nick Saban). LSU has covered three of those five games, including two of three against Alabama. In fact, their non-covers have also been close as Alabama needed overtime to dispatch LSU as a field goal favorite in 2008 and Florida won by ten as an eight point favorite in 2009. LSU has steadily improved as the year has gone on, and is certainly not the same team that was obliterated by Auburn a month ago. Also keep in mind that Alabama is just 3-6 ATS away from Tuscaloosa since the start of the 2013 season. Take the Tigers to keep this one close.

Ohio State +3.5 Michigan State
Can a Big 10 team crack the initial College Football Playoff? The best chance for the conference probably lies with a Michigan State win here. If Ohio State wins here, and wins out, their inexplicable loss to Virginia Tech will likely serve to keep them out of the playoffs barring some other unlikely results. Along with Wisconsin, these are clearly the two best teams in the conference, but their lack of non-conference accomplishments will likely shut the Big 10 champion out of the playoffs. Ohio State has been a betting underdog exactly twice under Urban Meyer, and once was two seasons ago against these Spartans, in this very stadium. The spread was about the same too, with the Buckeyes getting about a field goal. The Buckeyes won a tight game, and a similar result here would not be too surprising.

New Mexico State +17 Louisiana-Lafayette
The Ragin' Cajuns have had quite a four-year run under Mark Hudspeth. They have played in (and won) three consecutive New Orleans Bowls and are just a win away from attaining bowl eligibility for the fourth consecutive season. However, 2014 began rather inauspiciously. After opening with an expected beatdown of IAA Southern, the Cajuns lost at home to Louisiana Tech by four touchdowns (they entered the game as a double-digit favorite). They then went on the road to Ole Miss and Boise State and lost by a combined 66 points. With Captain Hindsight as our guide, we can see that while the Cajuns were not competitive in those three losses, each of those teams has ended up being pretty good. Once conference play began, the Cajuns rebounded and are now 4-0 in the Sun Belt. Their overall Sun Belt record under Hudspeth is a sterling 21-6, yet they have yet to win an outright conference title, finishing third in 2011, second in 2012, and tied for first last season. Even if they win out, they may not be alone at the top of the standings as Georgia Southern is also unblemished through six conference games and does not face the Cajuns. Despite their sterling won-loss record, the Cajuns have been far from a sure thing as a favorite. In conference games in which they entered as the betting favorite, the Cajuns are just 7-10 ATS. They are also just 2-4 ATS in all games as a road favorite under Hudspeth and 2-6-1 ATS as a double-digit favorite. All these trends are compelling reasons to take the Aggies from Las Cruces on Saturday night.matthttp://email@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-14955809.post-56829510703407148682014-10-28T15:51:00.005-07:002014-10-28T15:51:52.316-07:00The Magnificent Seven: Week XWell, Week IX was a downer in a big way. We only manged a 2-5 mark which drops the yearly record to 31-32. However, there are still six weeks (or 40%) of the college football season left to try and make amends. As always, home teams in bold.

Last Week: 2-5
Overall: 31-32

Pittsburgh -2 Duke
Just when it seemed like Pitt had a chance to take control of the Coastal division of the ACC, the Panthers suffered from a full-fledged case of fumbleitis against Georgia Tech. The Panthers lost six fumbles in total against the Yellow Jackets en route to their 56-28 defeat. And yet, despite that defeat, the Panthers are still very much alive in the division race. Another team very much alive in the race is the Duke Blue Devils. Duke is currently the only Coastal division team with fewer than a pair of conference losses. A win here by the Devils would set them up nicely for a return trip to the ACC Championship Game. While Duke has won two of their first three conference games, they have been less than impressive in doing so. The Blue Devils currently rank second to last (ahead of only Wake Forest) in the ACC in yards per play and are also second to last (ahead of only Georgia Tech) in yards per play allowed. Duke is not as good as their 6-1 mark would lead you to believe, and while Pitt has been wildly inconsistent this season (winning on the road at Boston College and losing at home to Akron), they should be able to cover this small number at home.

Florida +13 Georgia @ Jacksonville
Some prognosticators, myself included, thought the Florida Gators were a good bet to improve this season, and perhaps even challenge for the SEC East title. Needless to say, we (especially I) were wrong. The Gators have not seen their offense improve, and their defense, while still strong has declined somewhat. If not for some tight wins over Kentucky and Tennessee, the Gators could be entering this game with a 1-5 mark. Since their opener against Idaho was canceled, the Gators may not be able to come up with the requisite six wins for bowl eligibility! Where have you gone Charley Pell, our nation turns its lonely eyes to you (woo woo woo)? Meanwhile, Georgia enters this game having won five straight, and fancying themselves legitimate playoff contenders. The Bulldogs have been especially impressive in their last three games, crushing Vanderbilt, Missouri, and Arkansas by a combined 74 points. However, the Bulldogs have not faced nearly as daunting an SEC schedule as the Gators (Florida has already lost to Alabama and LSU while Georgia has already faced Vanderbilt and a weaker than expected South Carolina) and are actually just 4-7-1 ATS over the past two seasons as a favorite against a fellow SEC team. This is a rivalry game so Florida will be sufficiently motivated to hang with the Bulldogs here. Also, keep in mind, Georgia has not won this game by enough points to cover this large a number since 1997!

West Virginia +5 TCU
Is this the week the Big 12's parity conspires to thwart another potential playoff team? Both these teams have rebounded nicely from losing seasons in 2013. After combining to go just 4-14 against conference foes last season, the Horny Toads and Mountaineers are a combined 7-2 against the Big 12 this season. For TCU, it was not hard to see improvement coming, as the boys from Fort Worth had solid statistical numbers despite their poor record last season. West Virginia on the other hand, has been more of a pleasant surprise. The defense has been especially encouraging, with the Mountaineers on pace to allow fewer than 30 points per game for the first time since 2011, the Mountaineers final season in the Big East. TCU is just 2-6 ATS as a road favorite since 2011, so backing the Mountaineers seems like a solid play here.

San Jose State +6.5 Colorado State
We were all over the Spartans catching more than a touchdown last week at Navy. That didn't work out so well. The Spartans allowed the Midshipmen to run for over 400 yards on them and failed to cover. Now they return to conference play to take on a Colorado State team on the cusp of being ranked for the first time since 2003. While the Rams are getting a little under the radar hype as a potential representative in the big time bowls from the Group of 5, San Jose State is actually in better shape to make it to the Mountain West Championship Game. Courtesy of their early season loss at Boise, the Rams need the Broncos to lose at least once more to a Mountain West team to have a shot at winning the Mountain division. Colorado State is probably a little over-valued at the moment and this spread should probably be closer to a field goal. Look for the Spartans to give the Rams a good game on Saturday night.

Old Dominion +10 Vanderbilt
Think the Commodores might be missing Lionel Richie James Franklin? After winning eleven SEC games in three seasons under Franklin (or one more than they won in eight seasons under Steve Martin Bobby Johnson), the Commodores have returned to their rightful standing at the bottom of the SEC East. The Commodores have yet to win an SEC game, and have victories over Massachusetts and Charleston Southern (IAA) by a total of four points as well as a 30-point loss to Temple. Yes, the Commodores are a pretty good bet when they are getting a lot of points (4-1 ATS as double digit underdogs), but are not to be trusted when laying points, especially more than a touchdown. The rotting carcass of the Missouri offense was able to put up 24 points on Vanderbilt last week. Old Dominion has not done a lot well as they transition to IA football, but they can put up some yards and points. Outside of Marshall, they have been one of the most explosive offenses in Conference USA. Vanderbilt will probably pull out a win here, but it will not be easy.

Stanford +10.5 Oregon
You know expectations have changed at Stanford when three losses are the most regular season defeats the Cardinal have suffered since 2009! While the Cardinal have suffered more than their standard number of setbacks, keep in mind they have still played very well. An inability to finish drives led to their loss to Southern Cal, a late touchdown led to their demise at Notre Dame, and even in their multi-score loss to Arizona State, the Cardinal still averaged more yards per play then the Sun Devils. Stanford is still a force to be reckoned with on the defensive side of the ball, leading the nation in yards per play allowed (3.72 per snap). The Cardinal still wreck havoc in opposing backfields, ranking ninth in the nation with 27 sacks. However, despite their defensive prowess, they have been unable to force turnovers. In games where they had no need for turnovers to achieve victory (UC Davis and Army), the Cardinal forced five. In their other six games, they have forced just three (and have a turnover margin of -9). That friends is the reason Stanford sits outside the latest AP poll. However, it is also a reason to expect the Cardinal to cover this double-digit spread. Stanford has given Oregon trouble the past two seasons, and though they may not win their third in a row in the series, I expect the result to be in doubt for most of the game.

San Diego State +5.5 Nevada
How significant is jet lag in college football? While this game is obviously a sample size of one, I think it fits nicely within a not so well documented trend. Since 2010, 17 teams have visited Hawaii, and returned to the mainland to play a game the following week. Those 17 teams are an unremarkable 8-9 ATS in the follow up game. That is hardly big enough reason to fade those teams. However, if we dig a little deeper inside the numbers, there might be an angle to play. Eight of those teams returned to the mainland as favorites. Those eight teams covered just twice in the role of favorite. Nevada, as fate would have it, was in the islands just last week. The Wolfpack won, to run their record to 5-3 (2-2 in the Mountain West), but have been winning games despite shaky peripheral numbers this season. All eight teams Nevada has faced averaged more yards per play than the Wolfpack. However, Nevada has held onto the ball (just eight turnovers on the season), forced opponents to give it up (17 turnovers forced is tied for 16th nationally), and been a little lucky (opponents have hit just 6 of 13 field goal attempts). Recipes like that tend to turn sour after awhile. Meanwhile, at 4-3, San Diego State is in line for their fifth consecutive season of bowl eligibility, which is quite impressive considering they had just one winning season from 1997 to 2009. Plus, with a 3-1 conference mark, they are actually in the driver's seat at the halfway point in the West division of the Mountain West Conference. With a week off to freshen up, take the Aztecs to cover and potentially win outright here.matthttp://firstname.lastname@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-14955809.post-31737617826987034962014-10-22T18:49:00.004-07:002014-10-23T15:36:14.314-07:00The Magnificent Seven: Week IXIt took a backdoor cover by Miami of Ohio, but we enjoyed another winning week of capping games bringing the yearly mark to 29-27. We are within sniffing distance of the degenerates break even line. Let's see if we can jump it this week. As always, home teams in BOLD.
*Fastidious readers of this blog (if there are any) will note that I changed one of my picks. After careful deliberation, I concluded Wisconsin/Maryland was indeed not magnificent. I have swapped that game out for Vanderbilt/Missouri. I apologize if you had already made your wagers based on this blog. But hey, at least I didn't try and pull a fast one and pick Louisiana-Lafayette/Arkansas State. I'll take the Cajuns plus the points by the way.*

Last Week: 4-3
Overall: 29-27

San Jose State +9 Navy
When will bookmakers learn to stop making Navy a substantial home favorite? Since 2010, the Midshipmen are 5-11 ATS in the role of home favorite, with six straight up losses (including two this season to Rutgers and Western Kentucky). With four losses already on the (darnell) docket, a game remaining with Notre Dame, as well as battles with solid mid-major squads Georgia Southern and South Alabama, Navy desperately needs this game to ensure they get the requisite six wins for bowl eligibility. Outside of their game at Auburn, San Jose State has been at least marginally competitive with every team they have played. In Mountain West play, they have held each of their first three opponents under five yards per play. This is the fourth consecutive year these two teams have played, so San Jose State should be relatively familiar with Navy's unique offense. Navy should be favored, but this spread should be a little less than a touchdown.

Akron -1 Ball State
The Zips headed to Athens, Ohio last week riding a three-game winning streak and lost a tight game to the Bobcats. The loss dropped Akron to 2-1 in the MAC, but they remain just a half game behind Bowling Green in the latest standings. Under Dick Morris lookalike, Terry Bowden, the Zips have become competitive in short order, improving from 1-11, to 5-7, to 4-3 in Bowden's three seasons. Their nine wins over the last season and a half are more than they had from 2009-2012. Now the Zips will look to rebound against a Ball State team enduring some growing pains in Pete Lembo's fourth season. After going 25-13, and playing in two bowl games in Lembo's first three seasons, the Cardinals have struggled through a 2-5 start in 2014. Both sides of the ball have been equally culpable, as the offense ranks second to last and the defense ranks dead last in the MAC in yards per play in conference games. The Cardinals did upset Central Michigan on the road last week, but they were significantly outgained and averaged about two and a half fewer yards per play than the Chippewas. The Cardinals benefited from five Central Michigan turnovers and are a little overvalued because of that. This line should be closer to a whole touchdown. Take Akron to cover with ease here.

See, they look similar. Maybe Politico will link to the blog now.

Georgia Tech +3.5 Pittsburgh
When handicapping the ACC Coastal Division, the lesson you should know by now is the same as the philosophy espoused by the X-Files: Trust No One. Pitt is (currently) tied for first in the division, but have also lost to Terry Bowden and Akron earlier in the year. Georgia Tech fancies themselves contenders in the division, and just two weeks ago, they were the only team without a loss. However, after consecutive close defeats to Duke and North Carolina, they must separate themselves from a logjam of teams if they want to return to the ACC Championship Game for the second time in three seasons. The Georgia Tech triple option offense continues to have 99 problems, but a pitch ain't one. Actually, the offense is the strength of the team, averaging north of six yards per play through their quartet of conference games. The defense has been their downfall, allowing more yards per play than every team in the conference except the Tar Heels. While Georgia Tech is a team of extremes, Pitt is decidedly a shade above average on offense and defense. The Panther's yards per play numbers rank fifth in the ACC on both sides of the ball. Georgia Tech has been a bad bet as a favorite this season, posting a 1-3 ATS record. However, as an underdog, they are a good value, going 2-0 ATS with a pair of outright wins. After consecutive outright losses as a favorite, the pendulum has swung a little to far to the other side. Look for Georgia Tech to cover here and leave Pennsylvania with an outright win and throw the Coastal side into even more chaos.

Temple +10 Central Florida
With their victory over Tulane last week, the Knights from UCF have now won eleven consecutive conference games, dating back to their days in Conference USA. The last team to beat UCF? Tulsa. Back when they were a competent football team. The Knights have been rather fortunate in their winning streak, with eight of the wins (including both this season) coming by a touchdown or less. One would think that run of good luck would have to end sooner or later. Could it be this week with Temple flying into town? The Owls have already doubled their win total from last season and are still alive in the conference race despite their loss to Houston last week. The 31-10 final score was a bit misleading, as the Owls averaged more than seven yards per play against the typically stout Cougar defense, but were undone by four turnovers, including an interception that was returned for a score. The Owls are...ahem...flying under the radar here, especially facing an offense like UCF's. Think the Knights might be missing their two skill position draft picks, as well as their undrafted offensive lineman? Last season the Knights averaged over six yards per play in American Conference games. Through two games this season, they are averaging 3.94 yards per play. When a team has trouble scoring, they are a bad bet to lay double-digits. Take the Owls here.

Vanderbilt +21 Missouri
Speaking of teams that have trouble scoring...After scoring 38, 49, and 38 points in their first three games, the Missouri Tigers have averaged just 22.5 points per game over their last four (though they have won two of those games). The scoring drop-off is even more pronounced when we consider the offensive touchdowns the Tigers have scored, and the level of competition. The Tigers have scored seven combined offensive touchdowns against Indiana (104th in scoring defense), South Carolina (91st in scoring defense), Georgia (19th in scoring defense), and Florida (62nd in scoring defense). Georgia and Florida (despite the scoring defense rank of the Gators) have good to above-average defenses, but Indiana and South Carolina are another story. To make matters worse, quarterback Maty Mauk has not thrown a touchdown pass since the Indiana game more than a month ago. The Tigers should rightfully expect to win this game as Vanderbilt is terrible, but the Commodores have actually covered twice as a heavy road underdog this season (against Kentucky and Georgia) and are actually 3-1 ATS as a double-digit underdog. Missouri cannot be trusted with a spread this large, so Vandy is the pick.

Ole Miss -3.5 LSU
This line seems odd just looking at it. When the Golden Nugget released their Game of the Year odds in the summer, the line on this game was LSU -7.5. That means this spread has shifted by an amazing eleven points! I understand if you have some trepidation taking an upstart to win in Death Valley at night with College Gameday on the scene. Here's why you should trust Ole Miss. The Rebels are battle-tested, with home wins over Alabama and a better than you think Memphis team, as well as wins away from home against Boise State and Texas A&M. Granted, the Aggies have fallen from grace the past three weeks, but the Rebels are the only team to beat them by at least two scores in College Station since Missouri in 2010. The Rebels also have one of the best defenses in the nation. Alabama and Texas A&M are the only teams to average north of five yards per play against them this season. Finally, LSU is just not as good as they normally are. Their opening win against Wisconsin has lost some of it's luster with the Badgers losing to Northwestern in between struggling to put away South Florida and Illinois. The Tigers have already lost at home to Mississippi State and were blown out at Auburn. They needed a last second field goal to escape against Florida. Yet, after their easy win against Kentucky last week, the Tigers are now poised to challenge Ole Miss? Consider me skeptical. The spread on this game should be closer to a touchdown. Bank on Ole Miss remaining unbeaten and covering here.

Southern Cal Pick Em' Utah
Suddenly, this is a huge game in the Pac-12 South. While the southern division of the Pac-12 is stronger than the ACC Coastal, it is nearly as competitive and hard to figure. Five of the six teams (or every one save Colorado) have either one or two conference losses. The Trojans are currently in the pole position, courtesy of having played five conference games and winning four of them. The Trojans have been a little sketchy on the road, losing to Boston College, while beating Stanford and Arizona by a combined five points. To be fair, Arizona and Stanford are quality teams, and Southern Cal is the only team to beat each in their home stadium. On the other sideline, I think its fair to say this is Utah's biggest game since joining the Pac-12 prior to the 2011 season. This is primarily because the Utes began their first three seasons of big boy football with 0-4, 0-4, and 1-2 conference records. At 2-1, the Utes have already matched last season's conference win total. They have done it almost entirely on one side of the ball. The defense is extremely disruptive, leading the nation with 33 sacks (they have had at least three in each game). Meanwhile, the offense has slowly reverted to last year's form, averaging under five yards per play over their last four games. The running game, led by Devontae Booker has been quality, averaging nearly 230 yards per game on the ground in Pac-12 play. The passing attack has been another story with Travis Wilson and Kendal Thompson combining to average just 4.3 yards per pass against Pac-12 opponents. Utah is a good team, but Southern Cal is a proven commodity. If the Trojans were giving a field goal, I would be hesitant to take them. However, all they have to do is win here, so they are the pick.matthttp://email@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-14955809.post-58082818184650745432014-10-15T18:21:00.002-07:002014-10-15T18:21:41.358-07:00The Magnificent Seven: Week VIIILast week, we hit on four of seven games, putting us on a two week winning streak. This now moves us to 25-24 on the year, just a smidge above .500. However, as any degenerate knows, this is not enough to turn a profit in Vegas. We'll try for another winning week as the weather turns colder. As always, home teams in BOLD.

Last Week: 4-3
Overall: 25-24

Oregon State +3 Utah
Both teams enter this game with identical 4-1 marks, and in the rugged Pac-12, will likely need every win they can get to attain bowl eligibility. Utah is actually ranked in the latest AP poll, thanks to their most recent game, an upset over UCLA. However, the offense appears to have disappeared over the last month. After moving the ball with relative ease against Idaho State (IAA) and Fresno State, the Utes have averaged under five yards per play against Michigan, Washington State, and UCLA. The Utes have somewhat made up for their offensive struggles with a great pass rush. The Utes lead the nation with 28 sacks and senior defensive end Nate Orchard is second in the country with 8.5 on his own. Since joining the Pac-12, Utah has struggled on the road. They have not covered as a road favorite since their Mountain West days in 2010. Their straight up and ATS Pac-12 road record is just 4-10. Their offensive struggles combined with their poor road performance as a Pac-12 member make the Beavers the pick here.

Purdue +12.5 Minnesota
Don't look now, but the signs of the Apocalypse abound in the nation's heartland. Purdue has been competitive as of late (since Austin Appleby took over at quarterback) and Minnesota is currently in first place in the Big 10 (your guess is as good as mine) division. Minnesota helped usher in the Brady Hoke death march a few weeks ago and then continued their run at bowl eligibility with a tight win over Northwestern. A win against the Boilermakers would make the Gophers 3-0 in Big 10 play for the first time since 1990! It would also likely grant them entry into the top-25 for the first time since 2008. Minnesota hearkens back to the football of our grandfathers by detesting the forward pass. Their 103 pass attempts in 2014 are more than just five teams (Georgia Tech, Georgia Southern, New Mexico, Navy and Army). Each of those squads is a purveyor of some type of option, triple or otherwise. Since they run from a conventional offense, they are not nearly as explosive on the ground as those option teams. They average just 4.66 yards per rush, good for 50th in the nation. Minnesota is not built to blow teams out, so I think Purdue is a good bet to keep this one close.

Tulane +20 Central Florida
The Green Wave from Tulane appear unlikely to appear in consecutive bowl games for just the second time in school history. Granted, their non-conference schedule probably had a lot to do with that, as the Green Wave faced Georgia Tech, Duke, and Rutgers, in three of their four non-American (un-American?) games. They lost each of those games by at least 17 points, but rebounded to beat Connecticut at home last week for their first conference win as members of the American. Now they head east to take on a Central Florida team that has beaten them by 49 and 47 points respectively in the last two meetings (2009 and 2010). The Knights should be expected to win this game, and run their record to 4-2, but three touchdowns is too much to lay even at home.

Virginia +2.5 Duke
Who wants to spin the ACC Wheel of Destiny? While the Atlantic Division appears to be in pretty good hands with Florida State, the Coastal is a wide open jumble. Every team has at least one loss within the division except, ya'll ready for this? Virginia! Mike London was on the hot seat when the season began, but the Cavs have done their best to cool things off. Halfway through 2014, they have already doubled last season's win total and are actually in the driver's seat in the division in the early going of conference play. The defense has been especially salty, holding opponents under five yards per play through six games. Virginia's defeats have been close and have come to UCLA (when the Bruins were aided by three defensive touchdowns) and BYU (when the Cougars still had Taysom Hill). Duke has been relatively lackluster in their 5-1 start, beating no one of consequence until their upset of Georgia Tech last week in Atlanta. The Blue Devils will struggle to move the ball against the Cavalier defense and I think Virginia will stroll out of Durham with an outright upset.

Eastern Michigan +16.5 Massachusetts
Both these teams have struggled over the past few years. Well, Eastern Michigan has struggled for time immemorial, but the Minutemen have been a IAA playoff team as recently as 2007. After engendering hope with a 6-6 finish in 2011, Eastern Michigan won just two games apiece in 2012 and 2013, earning Ron English a pink slip. Chris Creighton, an accomplished coach at lower levels of football, took the reigns, and has already notched two victories in his inaugural campaign. Meanwhile, in Amherst, the new old coach, Mark Whipple, took over and made the Minutemen infinitely more competitive. Massachusetts lost close games in non-conference play to both Colorado and Vanderbilt, before opening MAC play with additional close defeats to Bowling Green and Miami. They finally got their elusive second first win under Whipple with a 40-17 victory over Kent State last week. Massachusetts is vastly improved over the product they fielded during their first two seasons in the MAC. However, asking the Minutemen to win by three scores against a fellow MAC school is not a great idea.

Alabama -10.5 Texas A&M
Well, we whiffed on Alabama last week (thought they would mangle Arkansas), so naturally, we're all over them again this week. Despite the ineptitude of the Tide offense, the defense still managed to bottle up Arkansas, limiting the Hogs to just 4.24 yards per play, and fewer than 100 yards rushing. The Tide will return home to find a much more forgiving defense. The Aggies have permitted each competent offense they have faced to score at least 28 points and average north of six yards per play. Plus, this is Texas A&M's fourth consecutive tough game (yay SEC West), after facing Arkansas, Mississippi State, and Ole Miss over the past three weeks. This has all the makings of an Alabama blowout, so maybe Nick Saban will be in a better mood at his next press conference. Of course, if he's not, I won't be too sad.

Miami +12 Northern Illinois
What in the name of Chandler Harnish is going on in the MAC? For the first time since October of 2011, the Huskies of Northern Illinois lost a MAC regular season game. It was also their first home loss in the MAC since 2008. And the same team did it all three times. Ladies and gentlemen, a round of applause for Central Michigan, the Husky killers. Clearly, this is not the same Northern Illinois team that ran roughshod over the MAC from 2010-2013, winning four consecutive MAC West titles and a pair of MAC championships while losing just a single regular season conference game. Before they lost to Central Michigan, Northern Illinois struggled to put away a (currently) winless Kent State team at home. Now an improving Miami team comes to town. The Redhawks have already secured more wins and scored more points than they did in 2013 (granted they finished without a single win). Head coach Chuck Martin is attempting to become the second successful MAC coach to emerge from Grand Valley State. The Redhawks have already covered three times as a double digit road favorite this season and should do so again in DeKalb. matthttp://firstname.lastname@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-14955809.post-41626047440140840042014-10-08T17:48:00.003-07:002014-10-08T17:48:33.674-07:00The Magnificent Seven: Week VIIOur first winning week in nearly a month brings us back to even par at 21-21 for the year. The only game we really whiffed on was backing Old Dominion (you'll soon see we haven't learned our lesson). Let's see if we can put together another winning week. As always, home teams in BOLD.

Last Week: 5-2
Overall: 21-21

TCU +10 Baylor
Last week, TCU enjoyed their biggest win since joining the Big 12 conference and now find themselves ranked in the top-10 for the first time since they ended the 2010 season ranked second overall. The win over Oklahoma was no fluke, as TCU slightly outgained the Sooners and averaged more yards per play. Now they travel to Waco to face an old Southwest Conference rival in Baylor. The Bears struggled offensively against Texas last week, averaging under five yards per play for the first time since (drum roll) facing TCU last season, and for just the third time since becoming relevant again in 2010 (that game also came against TCU). However, in contrast to the Baylor of a few years ago, the Bears played well defensively and eventually wore the Longhorns down in a three-touchdown win. For the curious, Baylor has not beaten TCU by more than three points since 1994. This has all the makings of a great Big 12 battle. TCU won the last time they played the Bears in Waco, and another upset would not be the most shocking event in college football history.

Oregon -2 UCLA
Don't get me wrong, this is a big game, but a little of the luster is gone after both Oregon and UCLA lost at home as big favorites last week. Arizona upset the Ducks in Eugene, and Utah edged the Bruins in the historic Rose Bowl. If both teams would have won, College Gameday would have had a tough choice for venue this weekend. As it stands, these two will have to settle for the undercard. So what can we expect here? Well, my friend, if you like sacks, you should love this game. There should be multiple instances of quarterbacks being tackled behind the line of scrimmage. Oregon has allowed 15 sacks thus far, including five at the hands of the Wildcats last week. However, that pales in comparison to the lack of protection afforded Brett Hundley at UCLA. We're talking Steve Beuerlein in 2000 levels here people! The Bruins have allowed 22 sacks in 2014, including ten last week in their loss to Utah (the Utes lead the nation with 28 sacks by the way). Oregon has 16 sacks of their own in 2014, while UCLA has just seven so Hundley will be feeling the heat a little more than Marcus Mariota. Despite typically inflated spreads, Oregon is actually 10-3 ATS as a road favorite since 2011. In fact, this low number marks the first time Oregon has been favored by less than a field goal since Chip Kelly brought the Ducks to the national stage in 2009. Catching Oregon when they are giving just a few points is a dream come true. Take the Ducks here.

Alabama -10 Arkansas
Is the Alabama dynasty really over after a tight loss against a top-10 team? Believe me, no one loves it more than me when Nick Saban loses (except for maybe Tosh or Papi), but I think this line is a colossal overreaction to that defeat. Why should you trust Alabama to win by double-digits against an improved Arkansas team? For starters, the Arkansas defense is leaky. Auburn put up 45 points and averaged eight and a half yards per play against the Hogs. Texas A&M put up 35 points (in overtime) and averaged more than seven and a half yards per play. Even Texas Tech scored 28 points against the Hogs. Secondly, Saban has owned Arkansas since coming to Alabama. The Crimson Tide have won all seven of their games against Arkansas under Saban. The lone close games came in 2007 (Saban's first season) and 2010 (the best season for Arkansas since at least the late 1970's). The Tide have won the other five games by an average of over 38 points. Finally, Alabama stops the one thing Arkansas does well. Removing sacks from the equation, against West Virginia, Florida, and Ole Miss, Alabama has allowed an average of just over three yards per rush. Granted, Arkansas will be the best rush offense they have faced this year, but its hard to see Arkansas running roughshod over the Tide. In addition, while quarterback Brandon Allen has given the Hogs improved quarterback play, his passing numbers are bolstered by the games against Nicholls State and Northern Illinois. Against Auburn, Texas Tech, and Texas A&M, the Hogs have averaged just 6.2 yards per pass. This has all the making of at least a two-touchdown bounce back for Alabama.

Florida International +13 Texas-San Antonio
The Panthers from Florida International do not typically merit much press, but they are one of the most improved teams in the country. After bumbling their way through a 2013 season where they were beaten by about four touchdowns per game on average and shutout on three separate occasions, Florida International is already half way to bowl eligibility through six games and has already scored more points than they did throughout all of last season. The Panthers have opened conference play with two consecutive wins as relatively heavy underdogs against both UAB and Florida Atlantic. Part of their success is due to an unsustainable turnover margin (+9 in their past two games and +12 in their three wins), but the Panthers have been much better on a per play basis, limiting opponents to under five yards per play. Texas-San Antonio has lost four straight games after a stunning win over Houston to open the season. The Roadrunners have played marginally well on defense, but have struggled mightily moving the football. Last week against the porous New Mexico defense, the Roadrunners managed just nine points, the fewest the Lobos have allowed since they shutout Wyoming in 2008. The Roadrunners were thought to be the class of the western half of Conference USA, and with just one league game under their beaks, they may live up to preseason expectations. However, asking them to win by two touchdowns against a solid Florida International team is folly.

Old Dominion +2.5 UTEP
Well, we screwed up royally last week when we suggested you should take Old Dominion to cover at home against Marshall. The Monarchs only lost by 42. They were only about three and a half garbage time touchdowns away from covering the spread. However, the Monarchs were not the only team to be blown out on Saturday. The Miners traveled to Ruston, Louisiana and had the infamous double nickel put on them by Louisiana Tech. That continued a troubling trend for the Miners who have allowed opponents to average at least 6.8 yards per play in every game this season. Old Dominion has a competent offense, and against a sieve like UTEP, they may be able to win this game outright.

Ole Miss +2.5 Texas A&M
The interesting thing about college football, and football in general, is that we learn things one week at a time. Then we have a few days to ruminate on what we learned before it is all turned on its head the next week. At this point we realize what we believed earlier was in fact not true at all or we make excuses to point out why it is still true. Case in point, take the Aggies. They strolled into Columbia on the opening Thursday night of the college football season and beat the Gamecocks, a place where the home team had not lost in nearly three years. We overlooked the fact that they gave up nearly seven yards per play to a Gamecock offense replacing the best quarterback in school history. Then the Aggies went on a barnstorming trek where they kicked the crap out of a few creampuffs (Lamar, Rice, and SMU if you want specifics). The Aggies were true SEC and national contenders we said. Then they struggled against Arkansas, needing a late score to tie and send the game to overtime where they eventually outlasted the Hogs. Arkansas is better we said. That's why the Aggies needed overtime. Just part of life in the rugged SEC. Then came a little trip to Starkvegas. The cowbells were out in full force, and the Aggies once again had trouble stopping a competent offense, allowing the Bulldogs to roll them for 48 points and over seven yards per play. The Aggies are the same team they were last year. The defense looked good against Lamar, Rice, and SMU, but against three SEC foes, the Aggies are allowing 6.93 yards per play. That is even worse than the 6.66 yards per play they allowed last year to SEC opponents. So we've spent this whole paragraph going on a diatribe against the overrated Aggies. What about Ole Miss? Yes, they won a huge game last week and could be due for a letdown. It is certainly within the realm of possibility, but Ole Miss is the better team and is getting points. They are the play here. Oh, and one more prediction on the Aggies and quarterback Kenny Hill. I think when December rolls around, a lot of people will be making the analogy between this Aggies team and the Geno Smith-led West Virginia squad of 2012.

Wyoming +4 Hawaii
For just the third time under head coach Norm Chow, Hawaii is favored over a IA team at home. An optimist would point out the Warriors have covered both of those games under Chow, but a statistician might mumble something about small sample sizes before returning to his Excel spreadsheets. How Hawaii is favored in this game is beyond me. The Warriors are playing on the islands so that should count for something, but since June Jones left town, the Warriors have not done a great job of protecting their home turf. They are just 18-21 straight up against IA teams at home and 20-19 ATS. However, if we remove the spectacular 2010 season, those numbers drop to 13-20 straight up and 14-19 ATS. Wyoming has mastered the art of low-scoring ugly wins in 2014, with their three victories coming by scores of 17-12, 17-13, and 20-19. In addition, their losses have come to elite teams (Oregon and Michigan State). I think the Cowboys will sneak off the islands with another low-scoring win.matthttp://email@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-14955809.post-15336942027808426452014-10-01T17:53:00.006-07:002014-10-01T17:53:56.681-07:00The Magnificent Seven: Week VIWell, the losses just keep on coming. Another sub-par week leaves us at 16-19 and searching for answers. For the third straight week, we'll try and get back on track. As always, home teams in BOLD.

Last Week: 2-5
Overall: 16-19

Florida International +8 Florida Atlantic
Just when it seemed like Ron Turner was a dead man walking after last season's debacle, his Panthers have emerged from the humid Miami jungle as a competitive and dangerous team. After losing to IAA Bethune Cookman (for the second consecutive year) in the season opener, FIU beat IAA Wagner, were marginally competitive against Pitt and Louisville from the ACC, and upset UAB on the road last week. Now the Panthers return home to face their natural rivals Florida Atlantic. The Owls have rebounded from a rough start (lost by a combined 89 points to Nebraska and Alabama) and have won two of three, including an upset win over Texas-San Antonio last weekend. FIU has been relatively impressive on defense this season, holding each foe under six yards per play (after doing it just four times all of last season). Playing at home, in a nascent rivalry game, I like the Panthers to cover here.

Old Dominion +17.5 Marshall
Last week was a classic look ahead/sandwich/short week/laurel resting game for Old Dominion. In their first season of IA football, the Monarchs began the year 3-1, with the most recent win a road upset over defending Conference USA champion Rice. Before the Monarchs were to host presumptive favorite and potential BCS major bowl crasher Marshall, they hosted Middle Tennessee State on a Friday night. Though the Monarchs averaged more yards per play than the Blue Raiders, they were done in by four turnovers. Despite the loss, the Monarchs have proven to be a formidable mid-major, hanging tough with NC State in Raleigh earlier in the year. Marshall has waltzed through their schedule thus far, and the win over Akon Akron is looking better and better, but Old Dominion has the offensive firepower to keep this one close. In addition, with a line of more than two touchdowns, the backdoor could be standing wide open for a cover.

New Mexico +17 Texas-San Antonio
What do we make of Bob Davie's tenure so far at New Mexico? After winning just three games in three years under Mike Locksley, the Lobos have won eight in two plus years under Davie. They have also been infinitely more competitive, losing nine other games by a single score. However, improvement from where they were in Davie's first season to now is hard to surmise. The Lobos are basically the same team they were in 2012 and 2013. They can move the ball against fellow mid-majors, especially on the ground (averaging 6.26 yards per rush), but they have no answers on defense (allowing nearly seven yards per play). With that being said, it is easy to like the Lobos in this situation. They are 6-3 ATS under Davie as a double-digit underdog against a non-Power Five school. Texas-San Antonio is a little over-valued thanks to their first two games where they throttled Houston thanks to six Cougar turnovers, and hung with Arizona. However, looking at their cumulative offensive numbers, its clear they miss departed quarterback Eric Soza as the offense is averaging just 4.26 yards per play (121st nationally). New Mexico's defense is bad, but asking a team with the offensive deficiencies of the Roadrunners to cover this large number is not a wise investment.

Louisiana-Monroe +9 Arkansas State
For Louisiana-Monroe, this game is vital to their bowl hopes. Although they stand 3-1 after a quartet of games, the Warhawks have Kentucky and Texas A&M left on the schedule, so they need all the Sun Belt wins they can muster. The Warhawks have made a habit of winning tight games early, beating Wake Forest, Idaho, and Troy by a combined sixteen points. The Warhawks have played reasonably well on defense, holding opponents to just 4.66 yards per play. Even if we remove their game against Wake Forest (perhaps the worst offense in college football this season), Idaho, LSU, and Troy have combined to average just 5.27 yards per play against them. And speaking of teams that are struggling to move the ball...well hello Arkansas State. Outside of their opening romp over IAA Montana State, the Redwolves have averaged just 3.95 yards per play against Tennessee, Miami, and Utah State. Granted each of those teams is tough, and potentially bowl bound, but we could be seeing the effects of so much constant coaching turnover. I think the Warhawks will be involved in another close game here, and in the role of road underdog against Sun Belt foes, they have done particularly well under Todd Berry, posting an 8-4 ATS mark in his four seasons.

Georgia State +17 Louisiana-Lafayette
This spread would have been understandable in the preseason when Louisiana-Lafayette was widely expected to dominate the Sun Belt and claim their first outright conference title under Mark Hudspeth. However, early returns should have dropped this spread a little. The Ragin' Cajuns have hardly looked ragin' over their last three games -- all losses by a combined 94 points. Two of the losses are quite understandable, at Ole Miss and at Boise State, but the other, a four touchdown home loss to Louisiana Tech, hardly inspires confidence. Of course, I expect the Cajuns to knock off the Panthers, but Georgia State has been money in the bank as a double-digit underdog since joining IA football last season. In ten such contests, including two this season, the Panthers are 9-1 ATS. Look for that trend to continue as Louisiana-Lafayette will have great difficulty covering this large number.

Boise State -2.5 Nevada
With their loss to Air Force last week, Boise State guaranteed they will finish with at least one conference defeat for the fifth consecutive season. That's right, the Broncos have not finished unblemished in league play since 2009! Further proof that is is hard to go undefeated. It is even harder when you turn the ball over seven times. According to Bill Connelly, resident abacus czar, the value of those seven turnovers was about 30 points. The Broncos outgained the Falcons by about 130 yards and averaged about three quarters of a yard more per play. Now the Broncos must shake off the loss to the Falcons and travel to Reno to face a Nevada team that has won three of their first four games. Despite winning two of their three games against IA competition, the Wolfpack have averaged nearly a yard and a half less per play than Washington State, Arizona, and San Jose State. Similar to the Broncos, turnovers have told the story. In those three games, Nevada has not committed a single turnover while gaining six. The Wolfpack have also made three of their four field goal attempts, while their opponents have missed three of six in those games. The Wolfpack are operating on an extremely thin margin of error and this line should probably be closer to a touchdown in Boise's favor.

Cal +3 Washington State
Unless something strange or unlikely happens (like Kirk Ferentz taking over for Mike Leach at Washington State or Wake Forest replacing Cal in the visitors locker room), this game should see a lot of points. Both teams have split their first two Pac-12 games in entertaining fashion. Cal lost a heartbreaker to Arizona and followed that up with an absurd offensive showcase against Colorado. Washington State hung tough with Oregon and then rebounded from a 21-point hole to upset Utah. While Cal has played a pair of tight games, they have actually averaged over eight yards per play. Meanwhile, Washington State has seen their yards per play numbers more closely resemble a team that has lost as many as they have won. Cal is probably the better team, and since you are getting a field goal, they are a solid play here.matthttp://email@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-14955809.post-41132927247806671072014-09-24T16:55:00.005-07:002014-09-24T16:55:51.622-07:00The Magnificent Seven: Week VWe endured our second consecutive losing week. I suppose that is what I get for picking seven underdogs. However, to be fair, three of the underdogs we picked correctly also won outright. So yeah. Anyway, the overall record is now 14-14, which is a little below the percentage we need to make a profit. There is a lot of season left. Let's get to it in Week Five. As always, home teams in BOLD.

Last Week: 3-4
Overall: 14-14

Arizona State +4.5 UCLA
UCLA has opened the 2014 season 3-0, which is great, unless you happened to bet on them in each of their first three games, as you are likely cursing Jim Mora Jr. and Brett Hundley for your missed mortgage payments as they are 0-3 ATS. Now the Bruins head to Tempe where they are once again favored to win. However, one has to think that if Taylor Kelly were suiting up for the Sun Devils this spread might be reversed. Even without Kelly, the Sun Devils are a quality team, especially at home, where they have won eleven of fourteen games under Todd Graham. The Sun Devils will be in a rare position Thursday night as they have been a home underdog just once since 2011. In that game, Oregon jumped out to an early lead and easily covered as an eight-point favorite. UCLA may have gotten the preseason hype, but they are nowhere near the caliber of team of Oregon from 2012. Look for the Sun Devils to keep this one tight and perhaps get an early leg up on the Pac-12 South race.

Purdue +10 Iowa
Last week Iowa may have turned the burner underneath head coach Kirk Ferentz down a notch with their upset win at Pitt. The win came one week after the Hawkeyes lost at home as a large favorite to in-state rival Iowa State. Now the Hawkeyes open Big 10 play against Purdue, hoping to justify their lofty (schedule-induced) preseason expectations. Meanwhile, Purdue is looking to win consecutive games for the first time under Darrell Hazell, and triple last season's win total. Purdue is an also-ran (at best) that will struggle to win games in the Big 10, but I think they are a good play here for several reasons. For starters, this game is at home. Secondly, Iowa is coming off a big win. The Hawkeyes have also performed poorly in the role of double-digit road favorite recently, going just 1-4 ATS since 2010 (with the lone cover coming last season against Purdue). Finally, check Iowa's schedule. I'll wait. Each of their first four games have been decided by eight points or less. The Hawkeyes don't possess an offense explosive enough to bury overmatched foes (see Ball State and Northern Iowa) in the early going. I think this will be a vintage Big 10 game played in the teens or low twenties and decided by about a touchdown.

Tulane +11.5 Rutgers
Under Kyle Flood, Rutgers is the kind of team you want to back as an underdog, but fade as a favorite. Under the antediluvian coach, the Knights are 8-2 ATS as an underdog (with five outright wins), and just 6-9 ATS as a favorite. Fresh off a win against Navy, the Knights are in the dreaded sandwich spot with a visit from Michigan and (presumably) Brady Hoke on deck. The Knights are halfway to bowl eligibility, but have shown both a proclivity for turnovers (committing eight through four games) and an indifference to defense, allowing over six yards per play. They have been particularly susceptible to the pass, where even Navy threw for over 200 yards on them last week. Tulane has had turnover issues of their own, committing the most in the nation (13) through four games. Those turnovers are the primary reason this line is inflated ever so slightly. Two of their interceptions were returned for touchdowns last week against Duke, making the final score of 47-13 a bit misleading. Tulane has already faced a pair of Power Five schools this season (Georgia Tech and Duke), so heading to New Jersey should not pose any significant intangible effect on this game. I like the Green Wave to keep this one close with Rutgers a little more concerned with next week's maize than this week's green.

Bowling Green -4.5 Massachusetts
This spread has been falling like Alicia Keyes with vertigo on black ice. The line opened near two touchdowns and has steadily dropped to its current state under a single touchdown. Perhaps bettors were scarred off by Bowling Green's beatdown at the hands of Wisconsin last week. Remember though, the Badgers regularly bludgeon lesser foes and have much more trouble when they pick on someone their own size. Massachusetts is markedly better under new old coach Mark Whipple, but Bowling Green has been money in the bank against the MAC the past three seasons, going 17-7 ATS, 9-3 ATS on the road, and 5-1 ATS as a road favorite. And before you overreact to their loss to Wisconsin, remember they beat Indiana (who would go on to beat Missouri) just two weeks ago. I would never have taken the Falcons when they were giving close to two touchdowns, but at this small number, they are a solid play.

Missouri +5.5 South Carolina
Was Missouri looking ahead to their SEC opener last week? Perhaps, but that is good news for you Mr. (or Mrs.) Degenerate. The loss to the Hoosiers likely earned you a few extra points on this betting line. The Tigers did struggle to stop the Hoosiers running attack as Tevin Coleman gained 132 yards on nearly seven yards per attempt. With Mike Davis up this week, Tiger fans could be forgiven for being a little worried. However, South Carolina tends to run from typical pro-style or power formations instead of out of spread concepts, so the Tigers could be better suited to contain Davis. Plus, I can pretty much guarantee you Missouri will be able to move the ball against the Gamecocks. Lorenzo Ward defenders will point out that 14 of the 34 points the Gamecocks surrendered to the Commodores last week came via kickoff returns. They would be right, but Vanderbilt also averaged a healthy 6.89 yards per play. The Commodores entered the game having averaged under five yards per play in each of their first three contests which included noted football powers Temple and Massachusetts. Every team South Carolina has faced has averaged north of six and a half yards per play against the suddenly porous Gamecock defense. Expect Missouri to do the same in a game that is much closer to a toss-up than a touchdown spread.

Syracuse +12 Vs Notre Dame (@ East Rutherford)
The last time these two school squared off, Syracuse scored the final 14 points of the game to beat the Irish in the shadow of Touchdown Jesus. Was it the worst loss of the Charlie Weis era? Some would say yes. Others would like to forget the final three years of the Charlie Weis era ever happened. Enough with the history lesson. What can we expect from this game? I think Syracuse is a value play here. The Orange lost at home to Maryland last week, but averaged a robust 7.46 yards per play and outgained the Terrapins by over 200 yards, but threw an interception that was returned for a touchdown, lost a fumble, and had a punt blocked. Meanwhile, Notre Dame has had a week to relish their closer than expected win over Purdue in Indianapolis. That line with the Boilermakers was inflated thanks to their throttling of Michigan. Any shutout is impressive, but the Wolverines have shown their offensive struggles from 2013 have not dissipated. This line should be closer to a touchdown instead of double-digits. Plus, the Irish have Stanford on deck next weekend. They may not be as focused on Syracuse as Brian Kelly would hope. Take the Orange to hang with the Irish.

Oregon State +9 Southern Cal
So Southern Cal is back eh? Let's see, what have they done so far in 2014? They crushed a Fresno State team that was subsequently crushed by Utah and Nebraska by similar scores. They beat Stanford in a throwback game after the Cardinal Clemsoned almost as bad as Clemson. Then they took their show to the east coast and lost to a Boston College team that had just lost by two scores to Pitt. So naturally, they are a healthy favorites against a competent Oregon State team. Oregon State has been solid as an underdog away from home, going 13-5 in the role since 2010 (remember, the Beavers had down seasons in 2010 and 2011). This spread should probably be about a field goal lower. Take the Beavers to cover here.matthttp://firstname.lastname@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-14955809.post-4508795959774580262014-09-17T16:59:00.005-07:002014-09-17T16:59:53.959-07:00The Magnificent Seven: Week IVWell, it finally happened, we struggled, and I mean struggled. I went just 2-5 picking games which drops the overall mark to 11-10. As some degenerates may know, that is exactly the percentage you need to break even. Hopefully we can do better this week and get back to our winning ways. Before we get to the picks, I want to give Michigan State some dap. While the Spartans did not play this past weekend, three of their quarterbacks won games in the NFL on Sunday. Kirk Cousins replaced RG3 and led the R*dskins to an easy win over the Jaguars. Brian Hoyer held off Johnny Manziel for another week and got the Cleveland Browns just their second win in a home opener since returning to the league. Finally, Drew Stanton got the start in place of an injured Carson Palmer as the Cardinals won in New York against the Giants. On to the picks. I think you will see a general trend as you peruse them. As always, home teams in BOLD.

Last Week: 2-5
Overall: 11-10

Georgia Tech +9 Virginia Tech
Last week was not a good one for the ACC, and it could have been even worse. While Virginia Tech lost at home as a large favorite to East Carolina, and Wake Forest lost on the road to Utah State (their second loss to a group of five opponent), Georgia Tech nearly lost at home to Paul Johnson's former charges, Georgia Southern. While the Yellow Jackets have been as leaky as ever on defense, their offense has remained potent, averaging nearly 40 points per game and nearly seven yards per play. Suffice it to say they won't reach those numbers against the Hokies, but they may not have to. Excluding their exhibition with William and Mary, the Hokies have averaged just 4.3 yards per play. Quarterback Michael Brewer has averaged under six yards per pass and thrown four interceptions against Ohio State and East Carolina. Virginia Tech appears to be exactly the same as they were last season: A strong defensive team (though East Carolina proved they can be beat through the air) that will have trouble being relevant nationally thanks to a shaky offense. No matter the venue, this game has usually been close since Paul Johnson arrived. While Georgia Tech has lost five of six to the Hokies under Johnson, five of the six games have been decided by seven points or fewer. I think after Saturday, it will be six for seven. Before we move on, just a comment on how unpredictable the ACC Coastal Division race should be this season. You could make a cogent argument for any of the seven schools (Duke, Georgia Tech, Miami, North Carolina, Pitt, Virginia, or Virginia Tech) serving as a sacrificial lamb to Florida State in the ACC Championship Game. Enjoy.

Utah State +2.5 Arkansas State
Why is Arkansas State favored in this game you ask? Because Chuckie Keeton, starting quarterback for Utah State, will miss it. While the oft injured Keeton has been a fine quarterback for the Aggies, and may go down as the best in school history, he hasn't really played all that well this season. After throwing just 13 interceptions in 777 pass attempts in his first three years on campus, Keeton has already tossed four in just 92 pass attempts this season, including an ugly Garo Yepremian-esque throw against Wake Forest (I couldn't find the video to share, but trust me, it was bad). Alas, I expected big things from Utah State this season, and it is clear they are not nearly as strong as they have been the past two seasons. Still, catching points against a solid, but hardly dominating Sun Belt team makes them a solid play this week.

Central Michigan +3.5 Kansas
Kansas fans, make sure to enjoy the days leading up to this game as it is truly a rare occasion. For just the fourth time since their program went off the rails following the 2009 season, the Jayhawks are favored against a IA team. Who were the other three teams that were bad enough to be underdogs to Kansas? New Mexico State in 2010, Rice in 2012, and Louisiana Tech last season. Kansas did win two of those three games (New Mexico State and Louisiana Tech), but only covered in one. Both teams here are looking to rebound from poor performances last week. The Jayhawks and Chippewas both lost by nearly identical scores, as Kansas fell to Duke 41-3 and Central Michigan lost to Syracuse 40-3. The Chippewas already own one victory over a Power 5 opponent, beating Purdue (who is still considered a Big 10 team by some) by three touchdowns two weeks ago. The win was the second for the Chippewas under Dan Enos, who while not nearly as successful as his predecessors Butch Jones and Brian Kelly, can surpass them in terms of victories of Power Five (formerly BCS) conference teams. Central Michigan is not quite as bad as they looked last week, and Kansas is much closer to Purdue in quality than they are to Syracuse. Look for the Chippewas to leave with an outright win.

North Carolina +2.5 East Carolina
East Carolina has certainly looked like one of the stronger teams from the Group of Five over the past two weeks. They fell on the road to South Carolina by ten, but slightly outgained the Gamecocks and averaged about a yard more per play. They followed that up by beating Virginia Tech for the first time since 2008. Now the Pirates return home to face another ACC team, and one they bludgeoned in Chapel Hill last season (double nickel sighting). Despite the home crowd, I think the Pirates are due for a letdown against a Tar Heel team that has been quite disjointed in the early going. The Tar Heels let Liberty (Valance) hang around until the second half, and should have lost to San Diego State if not for some huge turnovers by the Aztecs. Still, the Tar Heels have had a week to prepare, are in a revenge spot, and until last season, had won six of the previous seven meetings with the Pirates. If the line were reversed, I would seriously contemplate jumping on the Pirates, but as it is, the Tar Heels are the play.

Rutgers +6 Navy
Yikes, another road underdog. I can understand if you have some trepidation about taking yet another road team. Hear me out though. While Gary Nova did his best Gary Nova impersonation last week in the Scarlet Knights' Big 10 debut against Penn State, throwing five interceptions, the defense held Penn State in check until a late touchdown allowed the Nittany Lions to escape with a victory. Now Rutgers travels to Annapolis to take on a Navy team that has won two straight after hanging with Ohio State in the Horseshoe on the season's first Saturday. The Knights first traveled to Annapolis to take on the Midsheipmen back in 1891 when the great Benjamin Harrison was in charge of the country. The schools played once more in the 19th century, but wouldn't play again until after Woodstock. After playing just ten times in the 19th and 20th century, this will mark the tenth meeting in the new millennium. Rutgers has won seven of the first nine played since 2000, and has been a pretty solid road underdog under Kyle Flood, posting a 6-2 ATS mark with four outright wins. Meanwhile, Navy is just 6-11-1 ATS as a home favorite since 2009. I like the Knights to salvage a bit of the Big 10's reputation by covering and potentially winning outright against the Naval Academy.

Indiana +13 Missouri
The rebuild in Indiana continues. While Kevin Wilson has done an admirable job in a very difficult situation in Bloomington, improving his win total each season, non-conference losses may once again limit Indiana's postseason chances. In Wilson's first season, 2011, his Hoosiers lost to mid-majors Ball State and North Texas (the Hoosiers were favored by by five to six points in both games). In 2012, the Hoosiers lost non-conference games to mid-majors Ball State and Navy, To be fair, the Hoosiers were slight underdogs to Navy, but it continued a disturbing trend of the Hoosiers failing to start conference play with some margin for error. Last season, the Hoosiers once again lost to Navy. This time, they were a double-digit favorite. They also lost to Missouri, but that loss was understandable. As you may have heard, the Hoosiers lost last week to Bowling Green to put a damper on their bowl hopes in 2014. Now they travel to Columbia, Missouri to face an undefeated team that beat them by 17 in Bloomington last season. So why in the name of Bill Mallory, should you take the Hoosiers to cover this week? For starters, Indiana is a shade under-valued after last week. They lost to Bowling Green, but averaged nearly two and a half more yards per play than the Falcons. The defense has, is, and will likely continue to be an issue under Wilson, but the offense has been quite explosive from 2012 on. The Hoosiers will be able to move the ball on the Tigers. The question will be, can they finish drives? Even if the Hoosiers don't make this game ultra-competitive, the possibility is certainly there for a backdoor cover. Take the Hoosiers to keep this once close.

Northern Illinois +14.5 Arkansas
Arkansas appears to be much improved from their dreadful 3-9 campaign last season. However, with the general robustness of the SEC West, they may not improve a great deal on their 0-8 conference record. As such, the Razorbacks will need to win all the non-conference games they can if they have designs on breaking a two year bowl drought. The Razorbacks welcome mid-major darling Northern Illinois and hope to avoid the embarrassment of losing to a MAC team. Arkansas has absolutely wrecked teams on the ground in the early going, averaging nearly eight yards per carry. After nearly fielding two 1000-yard rushers last season, the Razorbacks on pace to accomplish that with ease in 2014. Outside of their opener against Auburn, the defense has also played better, limiting Texas Tech to just 5.6 yards per pass last week. However, before we go heralding Arkansas as a worthy contender/spoiler in the SEC West, remember, Texas Tech won their first two games against Central Arkansas and UTEP by seven and four points respectively. Meanwhile, Northern Illinois has already won a pair of road games, including a win at Northwestern. Since 2009, the Huskies have beaten six teams from power conferences, with five of the wins coming on the road. In addition, as an underdog against power conference teams away from home in the regular season, the Huskies are 10-2 ATS. Joe Novak, Jerry Kill, Dave Doeren, and Rod Carey have crafted quite a mid-major power in DeKalb. The Huskies might not beat the Hogs, but I expect this game to be close.matthttp://firstname.lastname@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-14955809.post-46291408091894993182014-09-10T18:04:00.007-07:002014-09-10T18:04:48.864-07:00The Magnificent Seven: Week IIIFirst off, let me apologize for the Eastern Michigan debacle. The Eagles were catching 38 points from the Gators and very nearly covered, losing by just 65. If you took my advice and the Eagles cost you your parlay card this week, I am truly sorry. However, I did manage another winning week (4-3) to move the yearly mark to 9-5. Let's see if we can keep the momentum going. As always, home teams in BOLD.

Last Week: 4-3
Overall: 9-5

Kansas +15.5 Duke
What difference a half decade makes. The last time these two teams met, Kansas was coming off two consecutive bowl appearances, ranked 22nd in the AP Poll, and favored by more than three touchdowns. Meanwhile, Duke was in the midst of a bowl drought that extended to the first term of President Clinton. Since beating Duke on that September day in 2009, Kansas has won just twelve more times, with only eight coming against IA opponents. On the other hand, Duke is the defending Coastal Division champion in the ACC, and seeking their third consecutive bowl bid. About the only thing that hasn't changed for Kansas is the relative heft of their head coach. Yep, I made a fat joke. Take the low hanging fruit when you can. Kansas comes into this game fresh off a tight 34-28 win over IA Southeast Missouri State. While the final score is close, it is a little deceiving. Kansas actually led 34-7 in the fourth quarter before a late surge by the Redhawks made the game close (their final touchdown came with a minute and a half to go). The misleading final score is artificially inflating this line for a Duke team that had a tough time dispatching Troy last week. Kansas will not win this game, but they will do enough to keep the final margin within two touchdowns.

Iowa State +10 Iowa
With an 0-2 start, Iowa State is in real danger of posting their fifth consecutive losing season. Granted, two of those seasons included bowl appearances, but its all in how you phrase things. The Cyclones have had a rough early schedule, losing at home to IAA power (and IA killer) North Dakota State and blowing a fourth quarter lead to lose Farmageddon to Kansas State. The Cyclones now travel to Iowa City, hoping to avoid on 0-3 start. Not to be outdone, Iowa is having some issues of their own, narrowly edging both Northern Iowa of IAA and Ball State in the season's first two weeks. Neither win elicited feelings of great satisfaction from the Hawkeye faithful. The Cyclones and Hawkeyes have split the fourteen games played this century, so this game will prove to be the rubber match, assuming the world ends before next year's game. The last three in this series have been decided six points or less. Look for this one to be close throughout as well.

Western Kentucky +1.5 Middle Tennessee State
Both these Conference USA squads (and former Sun Belt members), nearly made life even more miserable for the Big 10 last week. Western Kentucky lost a back-and-forth affair at Illinois 42-34 while Middle Tennessee State fell behind 28-0, but staged a somewhat furious rally (in that in made Minnesota backer's furious as the Blue Raiders went right in the back door for a cover) in losing 35-24. As both teams were bowl eligible in 2013, their early returns suggest another solid campaign for each. This game will likely serve as an eliminator of sorts in the East division of Conference USA. Both programs are expected to finish behind Marshall, and the loser will have an arduous task ahead of them to rebound and take the division. This game should feature plenty of points as both teams enter averaging more than 40 per game. Western Kentucky has been a little more impressive in the early going, as one of their games includes a shelling of Bowling Green, while Middle Tennessee State has padded their stats with a dismantling of IAA Savannah State. A two-game sample is not much, but Western Kentucky has posted better numbers against superior competition and should be favored here.

UNLV +10 Northern Illinois
Last week, Northern Illinois beat a Big 10 team on the road for the third time in a little over one season (their two victims last year were Iowa and Purdue). The win did not provide much cache for them however, as they did not receive a single vote in this week's AP Poll. Now the Huskies are in the dreaded sandwich spot, traveling to Sin City to take on UNLV immediately before a road trip to Arkansas. A victory over the Hogs, would perhaps give the Huskies more legitimacy, as they play in the rugged SEC West (though not very well I might add). Could the Huskies potentially sleepwalk through this game with the Rebels, a team that struggled to put away IAA Northern Colorado last week? I think so. UNLV has been a bonefide whiz as a home underdog under head coach Bobby Hauck. Since taking over in 2010, the Rebels are 12-5-1 ATS in the roll, with five outright upsets. I think the Rebels keep this one close, especially with no Jordan Lynch to contend with.

Texas State +10 Navy
After finishing bowl eligible last season, Texas State is looking earn their first bowl invite as a IA team. We didn't learn much from Dennis Franchione's team in their first game, as they bludgeoned IAA Arkansas Pine-Bluff 65-0. However, the schedule makers did them a huge favor by granting them a bye week between that game and their showdown with the Naval Academy. Navy is 1-1 after hanging with Ohio State for three quarters and holding off a pesky Temple team. Navy is one of college football's best stories year in and year out (a service academy with ten bowl appearances in the last eleven seasons). However, they have not been a good bet when they are favored. particularly away from Annapolis. When favored in either road or neutral games since 2009, the Midshipmen are just 5-10 ATS. Texas State is a quality opponent, has had an extra week to prepare for Navy's unique offense, and is catching double-digits at home. Take them cover here.

UCLA -7.5 Vs Texas (@ Arlington)
After poor performances (relative to expectations) last week, these two teams square off for the third time in the past five seasons. In their previous meetings in 2010 and 2011, the road team won handily each time. While both teams performed worse than expected last week, UCLA at least manged to stay unbeaten. The Bruins struggled with Memphis in a 42-35 win, but Texas was annihilated by BYU 41-7. The Texas offense has continued its drunken staggering since Colt McCoy departed, managing just 5.6 yards per pass attempt (excluding sacks) in the early going. The defense has remained (somewhat) stalwart, and is the only hope the Longhorns have of winning this game. The Longhorns have ten sacks in just two games and the UCLA offensive line has done a poor job protecting Brett Hundley, allowing eight combined sacks to Virginia and Memphis. UCLA was miscast as a national championship contender in the preseason, but they are good enough to beat a depleted Texas team by more than a touchdown at a neutral site.

Nebraska -10 Fresno State
Abdullah the Butcher prevented Nebraska from facing a potential sphincter-tightening overtime against McNeese State last week. His phenomenal catch and run broke a fourth quarter tie and provided the winning margin for the Huskers as well as visual evidence as to why you should 'bring your arms' when trying to tackle (I'm looking at you #21). While the game was close, Nebraska actually outgained the Cowboys by 99 yards and averaged almost two more yards per play. The big reason McNeese State was in the game was a long interception return when the Huskers were deep in McNeese State territory in the second quarter. Now the Huskers head west to take on a Fresno State team that is adjusting (poorly) to life without Derek Carr and Davante Adams. After winning 20 games in Tim DeRuyter's first two seasons in Fresno, the Bulldogs have lost their first two games by 39 and 32 points respectively. Southern Cal and Utah have moved the ball with ease against the Bulldogs, and there is no reason to believe Nebraska will not do the same. This spread is low thanks to Nebraska's close shave last week, but the Huskers should roll here.matthttp://email@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-14955809.post-83035992858022207642014-09-07T10:58:00.004-07:002014-09-07T10:58:09.778-07:00BYU: The Mid-Majors Last HopeWell, we are just two weeks into the 2014 season, and any hopes of an interloper infiltrating the initial College Football Playoff appear to be almost null. Consider the following: In the American Conference, the only remaining unbeaten team is Cincinnati...who has yet to play a game. The Sun Belt has three unbeaten teams, but Louisiana-Monroe, New Mexico State, and South Alabama are hardly college football royalty (and each also has at least one SEC team left on its schedule). Nevada and Wyoming are unbeaten in the Mountain West, but both play difficult Pac-12 teams this weekend and are unlikely to run the table. Central Michigan and Northern Illinois are unbeaten in the MAC, but Central Michigan has lost at least six games for the past four seasons, and Northern Illinois must win an SEC road game (Arkansas) and then navigate an improving MAC with an unblemished record. Marshall is unbeaten in Conference USA, but their schedule is one of the softest in the nation, and a group of Roadrunners may be waiting for them in the Conference USA Championship Game. But take heart underdog lovers everywhere, there is still a glimmer of hope, and it is in the form of a group of latter day saints.

On Saturday night, BYU throttled Texas for the second straight season, this time in Austin, by a score of 41-7. The win moves the Cougars to 2-0, and perhaps more importantly potentially sets the stage for an undefeated campaign. The Cougars still have ten games to play, but after their performance against Texas, no game appears unwinnable. Let's peruse their schedule starting with the home games.

Houston
Virginia
Utah State
Nevada
UNLV
Savannah State

The Cougars have yet to play a home game, so they still have six left on the slate. On paper, the toughest test is probably Utah State out of the Mountain West. Houston, Nevada, and Virginia could also present some challenges, while UNLV and especially Savannah State are likely romps.

And here are their four remaining road games.

@ UCF
@ Boise State
@ Middle Tennessee State
@ Cal

The road schedule is a little dicier with UCF and Boise ranking among the premiere mid-major teams over the past few seasons. However, the Cougars nearly won at Boise two seasons ago in a 7-6 slugfest, and UCF is missing a few pieces from its Fiesta Bowl winning team of 2013.

So that is BYU's schedule. Now, let's go ahead and make the (grandiose) assumption they win out. Could they make the four-team playoff? I think so. Here is why. Their schedule is perfect. A few years ago, Luke Win wrote a Sports Illustrated article about gaming the RPI. While their is no RPI in football, the Cougars have done a great job of challenging themselves with their schedule, but not too much. There are three schools from Power 5 Conferences on the 2014 schedule (Texas, Virginia, and Cal). While none of the three project to be great, Texas will likely win seven or eight games (and more importantly has a great deal of name recognition), while early returns on Virginia and Cal make them appear improved over their ghastly 2013 iterations. The Cougars also did a great job of scheduling mid-majors. Boise State, Houston, Middle Tennessee, UCF, UNLV, and Utah State all played in bowl games last season. Plus, while Nevada missed a bowl last season, they played in eight straight from 2005-2012. This means their are no real anchors on BYU's schedule. Their lone guarantee game is Savannah State (which based on their first two forays against IA opponents should be very ugly).

Now what sort of help does BYU need to make the playoff assuming they win out? For starters, it would be nice for them if UCF beat Missouri this weekend. Having Boise State and Utah State dominate the Mountain West would also be big. Having their (assumed) Power 5 scalps do their some damage in their respective conferences would also be help. If Texas could upset either Baylor, Kansas State, or Oklahoma, that would bolster BYU's profile. In addition, having either Virginia or Cal get to bowl eligibility (with maybe a quality win or two along the way) would also strengthen public perception.

Of course, BYU also needs a little help from the Power 5 conferences as a whole. Well, the Big 10 has already done them a huge favor. Not only did the league's three marquee programs all lose by at least fourteen points in non-conference action over the weekend (Michigan, Michigan State, and Ohio State), but a pair of teams also went down to MAC foes (Northwestern and Purdue), and a few more narrowly escaped against lesser opponents (Iowa and Nebraska), further hurting the league's reputation. Barring an unbeaten season by Nebraska, the Big 10 champion will probably miss the playoff. What about the other major conferences? Well, the SEC champion is probably in unless they have three losses. Thus, BYU needs to hope SEC teams cannibalize each other enough so that every team except the champion has two losses. In the ACC, a loss by Florida State would do wonders for their playoff hopes (maybe at Louisville?). The Pac-12 champion, particularly if it is Oregon, Southern Cal, or Stanford is probably in with a loss, so again BYU needs some cannibalization, particularly an upset or two by upstarts such as Arizona or Utah. Finally, it would be nice for the Cougar's hopes if the eventual Big 12 champion also has a pair of losses.

To sum things up, assuming they get to the end of the season unbeaten, BYU needs at least three (and possibly four) of the following things to happen to get into the four-team playoff:

ACC champ has one loss
Big 12 champ has two losses
Big 10 champ has one loss
Only one SEC team has fewer than two losses
Pac-12 champ has two losses
Notre Dame has more than one loss

Does this mean I think BYU is one of the four best college football teams in 2014? No. Do I think they could navigate the SEC West with less than two losses? Again, no. However, there are pros and cons to every situation. Playing in the SEC gives you access to the best players in the nation. However, it also means you must navigate a tougher schedule. While BYU does not have as brutal a schedule, they do have systemic disadvantages when it comes to recruiting the nation's best players (some of course self-imposed by their religious affiliation and others a natural occurrence of not being associated with a major conference). Consequently, engaging in theoretical thought experiments such as 'If they played LSU's schedule', are not the point of this post anymore than 'If they had LSU's players' is. BYU will play BYU's schedule in 2014, and it is within the realm of possibility that if they finish unbeaten, they make the four-team playoff.matthttp://email@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-14955809.post-34803239307186750792014-09-04T16:26:00.002-07:002014-09-05T21:32:54.054-07:00The Magnificent Seven: Week IIWeek I went rather swimmingly for your humble narrator. A 5-2 start will hopefully serve as a springboard to even better things as the calendar turns to September. There are a lot of big games for the second weekend of the college football season (Michigan State/Oregon, Virginia Tech/Ohio State, and Southern Cal/Stanford to name a few), but thanks to cowardice and no general read on those games, my picks will be more under the radar fare. In fact, a few of my picks involve the MAC, a conference with a great chance to beat a few Power 5 schools this weekend. Toledo hosts Missouri, Central Michigan travels to Purdue, Northern Illinois visits Northwestern, Ball State treks to Iowa, and Ohio is at Kentucky. There are others as well, but these five strike me as upset possibilities. Missouri, Central Michigan, and Northern Illinois are all underdogs of less than a touchdown, while Ball State and Ohio have beaten a few Power 5 teams under their current coaches. Sit back and enjoy the second week of college football. As always, home teams in BOLD.

Last Week: 5-2
Overall: 5-2

Georgia State Pick Em' New Mexico State
At long last, the Georgia State Panthers are winners once again. Losers of 16 straight, the Panthers kicked a last second field goal to beat Abilene Christian in the season's first game (on Wednesday of last week). The win was their first as a IA team, and now they will seek to win their first game against a IA team (baby steps). This game also marks the first time in their history Georgia State is not a betting underdog (again, baby steps) against a fellow IA opponent (they were a small favorite last week). New Mexico State also won their opener against a IAA opponent, although the Aggies did not have to sweat it out, winning 28-10 against Cal Poly. A win would make the Aggies 2-0 for the first time since 1999! Alas, I don't think the Aggies will get it done. They are just 2-8-1 ATS on the road the past two seasons. While this figures to be a competitive affair, Georgia State is playing at home, giving no points, and showed some polish on offense last week. Look for the Panthers to earn their second win as a IA program and move into first place for the time being in the Sun Belt.

Central Michigan +3.5 Purdue
As you may or may not know, Purdue head coach Darrell Hazell was once the top guy at Kent State. In 2012, he led the Golden Flashes to a school-record eleven wins. However, his tenure at Purdue may prove that 2012 was a (Golden) flash in the pan. Last week's win over Western Michigan marked the first for Purdue over a IA team under Hazell. While the victory was nice, it was anything but resounding as the Broncos actually outgained the Boilermakers and averaged more yards per play. Now the Boilermakers take on another directional Michigan school that could potentially be the last game they are favored in all year (excluding their clash with IAA Southern Illinois). Central Michigan also struggled last week, falling behind IAA Chattanooga 16-0 before rallying to win 20-16. I like the Chippewas here, as their opponent last week, Chattanooga, may actually be a better team than Western Michigan despite being a lower-level football program. Look for the Chippewas to keep this one close and perhaps leave West Lafayette with an outright upset.

South Alabama -3 Kent State
Kent State opened the 2014 season by losing on a last second field goal to Ohio. Just nine months earlier, the Golden Flashes pounded Ohio into oblivion 44-13. Despite the narrow loss, Kent State was actually very lucky to be in the game at all. Ohio outgained Kent State by nearly 150 yards and averaged nearly two more yards per play. However, thanks to four fumbles (all recovered by Kent State), the game was tied in the closing moments. If the Golden Flashes have any designs on a bowl game, they must win this game as the next three are at Ohio State, at Virginia, and at Northern Illinois. An 0-5 start will be very difficult to overcome. South Alabama beat Kent State by 17 in Mobile (one) last season. The Jaguars, in just their sixth season of football, and third at the IA level, are though of as one of the top teams in the Sun Belt. Last season, they were one of the more statistically dominant Sun Belt teams, but suffered three losses by a single point, as well as a two-point loss, and a seven-point loss on their way to a 6-6 campaign. Despite this being the season opener for the Jaguars, I like them to cover this small number and open the year with a victory.

South Florida +12.5 Maryland
South Florida did not get off to the best start last week, edging IAA Western Carolina 36-31. However, it certainly beat the heck out of their start last season when they lost by 32 to IAA McNeese State. In fact, the six-point margin against the Catamounts was a bit misleading. South Florida averaged over eight yards per play to the Catamounts 4.7. Freshman running back Marlon Mack was the star of the show, rushing for 275 yards on just 24 attempts and scoring four touchdowns on the ground. Last season, the feeble South Florida offense managed four rushing touchdowns on the season! Mack and Co. Are catching double-digits at home against a Maryland team that took care of business against their IAA opponent, James Madison. Playing the role of Stephon, I mean William Marbury, the Terrapins racked up 52 points against the Dukes, their highest point total since hanging 62 on my Demon Deacons in 2010. Maryland is a little over-valued here, and the Bulls are under-valued, particularly playing at home. The offense is light years beyond last year's low-wattage unit, and should do enough to keep this game within single digits. If you are feeling very industrious, might I suggest a South Florida play on the moneyline.

Wyoming +2.5 Air Force
It wasn't easy, but the Cowboys won the debut of head coach Craig Bohl. Bohl, as you may or may not know, won the last three IAA national championships at North Dakota State. It wasn't the most aesthetically pleasing game, but the Cowboys won their opener for the first time since 2011. Now the Cowboys turn their focus to a conference opponent in the Air Force Falcons. Air Force ended a three-game skid that dated back to last season's win over Army in dispatching (Kid) Nicholls State. Now the Falcons look to end an even uglier skid that has seen them lose nine consecutive games in the Mountain West Conference. Befitting a team that has not won a conference game in over a year, the Falcons have been putrid on the road as a favorite, going 0-3 ATS in the role since 2012. They have also not covered against Wyoming since 2008. In my humble opinion, the wrong team is favored here. I expect this game to be close, and since they are catching nearly a field goal, Wyoming is the play here.

Eastern Michigan +38 Florida
The debut of Chris Creighton at Eastern Michigan began rather inauspiciously, with his charges taking longer than expected to knock down a wall with sledgehammers. The end result was quality though, with the wall (sort of) tumbling down, though Joshua would have been disappointed, and the Eagles edging Morgan State 31-28. Before moving forward, let me be clear about one thing: Eastern Michigan has no shot (almost no shot) at winning this game outright. However, covering is another issue. The Florida Gators under Will Muschamp do set offensive records and dazzle with their passing acumen. They win games (less here as of late) with great defense. Eastern Michigan will have a hard time scoring and may in fact be shut out. However, expecting the Gators to score more than five touchdowns may not be the most logical assumption. Consider the following: As a double-digit home favorite under Muschamp, the Gators are just 4-7 ATS and lest you think those lack of covers come against SEC teams, they are also 2-3 ATS at home against non-BCS opponents. Despite the fact that they have been one of the worst IA teams in recent years, the Eagles are actually 4-2 ATS against BCS conference opponents the past three seasons. This has all the makings of a 31-3 Florida win.

Texas Tech -21 UTEP
How do you win a road game where you allow nearly eight yards per play? Allow Paydirt Pete to show you how. First, while you give up a lot of big plays, you don't allow many third down conversions (3 of 11). Second, don't allow them to convert on fourth down (1 of 3). Third, force turnovers (two fumble recoveries and an interception). Fourth, score some points of your own (31). That, dear friends, is how UTEP won at New Mexico despite showing very clear evidence that they are still not very good at football. While UTEP was winning in Albuquerque, Texas Tech was having a tougher than expected time putting away Central Arkansas. The Red Raiders averaged nearly three more yards per play than the Bears, yet only won by seven thanks to some red zone failures (just four scores in six opportunities) and turnovers (two interceptions). Of course, that all bodes well for you this week. This spread should be much closer to four touchdowns despite the fact that is is being played in the west Texas town of El Paso. The Red Raiders have played a non-BCS opponent on the road each of the past four seasons, and have covered each time with the average margin of victory clocking in at nearly 37 points. This one should get out of hand very quickly.matthttp://email@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-14955809.post-29764887803915635782014-08-27T18:58:00.004-07:002014-08-27T18:59:56.835-07:00The Magnificent Seven: Week IRegular readers of this blog are probably expecting the first 'Fab Five' of the 2014 college football season where I give you five favorites and five underdogs I feel are most likely to cover. The Fab Five has been a weekly feature during the season since 2007. But alas, all good things must come to an end. Don't fret though. I will still deliver a weekly picks column. I'm just going to tweak the format a bit. Instead of picking ten games, I will just pick seven. And, instead of picking an equal number of underdogs and favorites, the picks can come on either side of the ledger. I hope you enjoy this new column and give a moment of silent reflection on the Fab Five era. As always, home teams in BOLD.

Penn State +2 Vs UCF (@ Dublin)
This of course, assumes the game is played and Krakatoa does not explode and postpone this game/end all life as we know. If the game is postponed, I'll have eight picks for you next week. If life as we know it ends, the odds of picks going up moves from certain to probable. These two teams met last season in State College, and after jumping out to a 28-10 lead, UCF held on for dear life in a 34-31 upset win. The win helped boost the national profile of the Knights who cemented the best season in school history with a Fiesta Bowl win over Baylor. So what do the Knights have for an encore? For starters, they must replace the second most famous quarterback in school history, Blake Bortles, who was drafted (too high) by the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Knights were a good team last season, but also had their share of good fortune, finishing 7-1 in one-score games. Some regression is due, particularly without a great talent like Bortles. On the other sideline, Penn State will have its fourth coach in as many seasons (including interim coaches) after having one since football started in 1869. James Franklin performed miracles at Vanderbilt, including three consecutive bowl appearances, wins against Florida and Georgia in the same season, and consecutive finishes in the AP Poll. His teams were also pretty phenomenal ATS, going 23-13 against IA foes. His charges were particularly adept as a small betting line underdog, going 6-1 ATS when getting less than a touchdown from their opponent. These teams are pretty evenly matched, but Penn State is a little better and they are catching points her, so they are the pick. Remember, this game kicks off at 8:30 AM EST on Saturday, so don't catch too many pints yourself on Friday (see what I did there, a joke about using alcohol irresponsibly).

Georgia Southern +20.5 NC State
The Georgia Southern Eagles will play their first game as a IA team in Raleigh against NC State. While Georgia Southern will be looking to get off to a good start in their new era of football, NC State will be looking to erase horrible memories of 2013 when they went winless in the ACC. Georgia Southern has acquitted themselves quite well against IA foes as a member of IAA. Since 2010, they have lost to Navy by six, Alabama by 24, Georgia by 31, and beaten Florida by six. The Eagles do have a new coach in Willie Fritz, and will probably not run as much triple-option, but Fritz is arguably an upgrade over Jeff Monken (a fine coach in his own right). Fritz was successful at Central Missouri (a Division II school), and recently led Sam Houston State to back-to-back runner-up finishes in the IAA playoffs. He also won two national junior college championships at Blinn College. NC State will certainly be better in their second season under Dave Doeren, but against a good coach, and a funky offense, expect this one to be closer than three touchdowns.

UAB -1 Troy
These two Yellowhammer mid-majors have developed quite the rivalry since joining IA football in the relatively recent past. The Blazers and Trojans have squared off nine times since 2002, with 2014 marking the sixth consecutive season these two have butted heads. The games have tended to be tight, competitive affairs, with the average scoring differential coming in a just north of eight points. The last four games have all been one-score affairs, and while Troy has won three of them, the Blazers have actually covered three times. Both these teams had major issues on defense last season, with Troy ranking dead last in the Sun Belt in yards per play allowed and UAB doing the same in Conference USA. The Blazers may have done more to rectify their current situation by hiring Bill Clark to be their new head coach. Clark came from Jacksonville State where he guided the Gamecocks to the IAA playoffs in his first season at the helm. Clark's predecessor, Garrick McGee, did little to improve the fortunes of UAB before abandoning ship and becoming Louisville's offensive coordinator after a posting a 5-19 record over two seasons. I like the Blazers here for several reasons. I think Bill Clark was a great hire, the Blazers are playing at home in Birmingham, and Troy must replace the Sun Belt's career passing leader (Corey Robinson) under center. The Blazers don't even have to worry about winning by a comfortable margin. Take them to beat the Trojans at home.

Virginia +21 UCLA
If you read my post on teams I thought were poised to go under their projected win totals, you already know that I am not extremely high on UCLA. The Bruins are getting a great deal of preseason love, including a top-10 AP ranking (first time in the preseason top-10 since 1998), but posted rather middling per play numbers last year. While UCLA was middling, Virginia posted downright awful numbers, going winless in the ACC and enduring their first season of two or fewer wins since 1982. The heat is on Mike London, and I don't know if he will do enough to earn a sixth season, but playing at home, against a team from the west coast, with a Noon kickoff, I think the Cavaliers will do enough to cover this large number.

Oklahoma State +17.5 Vs Florida State (@ Arlington)
For the ninth consecutive time, Florida State enters a game as a double-digit favorite. When was the last time Florida State was not a double-digit favorite? It was a game against a fellow top-ten team on the road. Oh, and they won that game by 37 points. Last season, Florida State was a double-digit favorite eleven times (not including the bowl game). The Seminoles covered an amazing nine times (and pushed once). Despite that overwhelming performance last season, Florida State does not have a strapping track record as a heavy favorite under Jimbo Fisher. The Seminoles were just 10-12 ATS as a double-digit favorite in Fisher's first two seasons, including 2-7 as a double-digit favorite away from Tallahassee. Plus, Oklahoma State is not exactly a cream puff. The Cowboys have finished ranked in the AP Poll in four of the past six seasons, and by a more objective measure, have finished in the SRS top-fifteen five times in that span. Since the beginning of the 2010 season. Oklahoma State has lost just once by more than seventeen points (in a turnover-filled debacle at Arizona in 2012). After winning games so comfortably last season, I think it might be hard to motivate Florida State for every game in 2014, particularly one where they are a huge favorite. I can't see Oklahoma State actually winning this one, but they should make the final margin respectable.

Arkansas +20 Auburn
On the surface, this may seem like an easy Auburn win. After all, the Tigers nearly won the national championship last season, while Arkansas faded into obscurity, finishing 0-8 in the SEC. Let me give you a few reasons why this game might be more competitive than you imagined. For starters, while Auburn did win the SEC last year, and came very close to becoming the eighth consecutive SEC team to win the national title, they still finished just eleventh in the SEC in yards per play allowed. Until they stiffened against Florida State, their final three regular season opponents (Georgia, Alabama, and Missouri) all averaged at least seven yards per play against the Tigers. Arkansas has the potential to gash the Tigers, particularly on the ground, where they averaged 5.69 yards per rush against SEC foes last season. And let's not forget that Arkansas played much better over their final few games despite having no carrot to chase. They took Mississippi State to overtime before falling in their penultimate game, and nearly upset LSU to close the regular season. Plus, the Hogs were actually 3-2 ATS as a double-digit underdog last season. Auburn is light years behind elite SEC defenses like Alabama, so Arkansas will be able to score in this game. If the spread was closer to ten points or even two touchdowns, I might be inclined to take the Tigers. However, with the number at nearly three touchdowns, Arkansas is the play here.

Utah State +6.5 Tennessee
These are prosperous times in Logan, Utah. After winning just 32 games in the first decade of this century, the Aggies have won 20 in the past two seasons and are looking to continue a three-year bowl streak (best in program history). Since Gary Andersen (now at Wisconsin) took over in 2009, the Aggies have been beasts ATS against BCS (now Power 5) conference opponents. The Aggies are 6-1 ATS in such contests, including 5-1 ATS on the road. While the Aggies have only managed one outright win in that span (2012 at home against Utah), they have been very tough outs, losing by one score to Texas A&M (2009), Oklahoma (2010), Auburn (2011), Wisconsin (2012), Utah (2013), and Southern Cal (2013). They may not break through in Knoxville, but with stud quarterback Chuckie Keeton healthy, they should give the Vols a great game.

matthttp://email@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-14955809.post-8723215574475623262014-08-26T17:57:00.002-07:002014-08-26T17:57:09.952-07:00Season Preview: Conference Affiliation in 1995For our final edition of 'Where Were They Then?' we go back to 1995. Alternative rock was all the rage on the radio, the Playstation was about to take the video game world by storm, and the Big 12 did not exist (neither did Conference USA, the Mountain West, or the Sun Belt for that matter). It's hard to believe 1995 was nearly two decades ago and a lot has changed since then. Where were the current crop of college football teams playing in 1995? Once again, we start with the Power 5 (P5) conferences.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Back in 1995, the ACC had nine members (Clemson, Duke, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Maryland, North Carolina, NC State, Virginia, and Wake Forest). Eight of the nine remain with the league today (Maryland is the lone dissenter). Their other six members were in the Big East (Boston College, Miami, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, and Virginia Tech) and on the Independent circuit (Louisville) in 1995.

Big 10 Conference

The Big 10 had eleven teams in 1995 (Penn State was the last team added in 1993). The three Big 10 newbies were playing in the ACC (Maryland), Big East (Rutgers) and Big 8 (Nebraska) in 1995.

Big 12 Conference

The Big 12 would not hold its first football game until 1996. Half of the current Big 12 membership was playing the final season of the Big 8 in 1995 (Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State). Forty percent of the conference was closing out the Southwest Conference (Baylor, Texas, TCU, and Texas Tech). TCU would be a bit of a college football nomad, bouncing around a few mid-major leagues before finally rejoining their old in-state mates in 2012. Finally, West Virginia, under Don Nehlen, was a member of the Big East in 1995.

Pac-12 Conference

The Pac-12 was still known as the Pac-10 in 1995. Its membership included Arizona, Arizona State, Cal, Oregon, Oregon State, Southern Cal, Stanford, UCLA, Washington, and Washington State. Those ten teams remain in the league today and have been joined by Colorado (Big 8) and Utah (WAC).

Southeastern Conference

The SEC played its fourth season as a twelve-team league in 1995. The league would hold steady at twelve teams, despite expansion rumors, until 2012 when they added Missouri (Big 8) and Texas A&M (Southwest Conference).

Now we can turn our attention to the Group of 5 (G5) conferences. Where were their members in 1995?

American Athletic Conference

Nearly half of the teams in the American were Independents in 1995 (Cincinnati, East Carolina, Memphis, Tulane, and Tulsa). In fact, the number of teams playing as Independents in 1995 (12) is three times the number in 2014 (4). Three American members were not even playing IA football in 1995 (Connecticut, South Florida, and UCF), two were part of the final season of the Southwest Conference (Houston and SMU), and one was trying to compete in the Big East (Temple).

Conference USA

Like the Big 12, Conference USA did not play football in 1995. In its current form, the league features an amazing eight members that did not play IA football in 1995 (Florida Atlantic, Florida International, Marshall, Middle Tennessee, Old Dominion, Texas-San Antonio, UAB, and Western Kentucky)! That number will increase when Charlotte joins next season. Two members were Independent in 1995 (North Texas and Southern Miss), and three conferences shared the distinction of producing one future Conference USA member apiece (Big West – Louisiana Tech, Southwest Conference – Rice, and the WAC – UTEP).

Mid-American Conference

The MAC featured ten members in 1995 (Akron, Ball State, Bowling Green, Central Michigan, Eastern Michigan, Kent State, Miami, Ohio, Toledo, and Western Michigan). Those ten teams are still members. Two current MAC members were not playing IA football in 1995 (Buffalo and Massachusetts). Amazingly, one member was in the Big West (Northern Illinois). Obviously, that was a very liberal interpretation of the word 'west'.

Mountain West Conference

The Mountain West did not exist in 1995. Seven of its current members were part of the WAC (Air Force, Colorado State, Fresno State, Hawaii, New Mexico, San Diego State, and Wyoming). Four members would eventually join the WAC (remember the WAC was the first mega-conference in 1996), but were Big West members in 1995 (Nevada, San Jose State, UNLV, and Utah State). As hard as it may be to believe, Boise State was not playing IA football in 1995.

Sun Belt Conference

Like several other conferences on this list, the Sun Belt was merely an idea in 1995. Seven current Sun Belt members were not playing IA football back in the mid-90's (Appalachian State, Georgia Southern, Georgia State, Idaho, South Alabama, Texas State, and Troy). Arkansas State, Louisiana-Lafayette, and New Mexico State were members of the Big West, and Louisiana-Monroe was an Independent.

And finally, the let's look at the Independents.

Independents

Army, Navy, and Notre Dame were Independents in 1995 and remain Independents today (although Notre Dame has an open relationship with the ACC). BYU was a WAC member in 1995.

One thing I noticed when making these charts is the number of teams that have either moved up to IA football or started football teams from scratch in the last twenty years. By my calculations, there have been 21 teams that have joined the ranks since 1995. In 1995, there were 108 IA teams. Now there are 128 (Pacific dropped football after 1995 if you were wondering why 108 + 21 = 128). That means there are more than 18% more teams playing IA football now than there were in 1995. Some have been successful (Boise State and UCF), others not so much (Massachusetts), and the jury is still out on many (Appalachian State and Georgia Southern to name two). Will more teams continue to make the jump over the next two decades or has the bubble effectively burst with the autonomy the P5 conferences have gained (remember no new IA program is in a P5 conference since Connecticut and South Florida were demoted from the Big East)? I won't pretend to read the tea leaves in regards to this area, but I know that whatever the future holds for conference realignment, expect the unexpected. matthttp://firstname.lastname@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-14955809.post-61731582449980924212014-08-25T16:34:00.002-07:002014-08-25T16:34:19.115-07:00Season Preview: Conference Affiliation in 2000Last time out, we looked at the current composition of each conference and where its members were in 2009 (the season before the realignment tremors began). Now I want to look back a little further, to the turn of the century. Why the year 2000? That represented the swan song for the Big West as a football conference and was the final season before the Sun Belt began playing football. As we did last time, we'll start with the Power 5 (P5) conferences.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Back in 2000, the ACC was a nine-member league. Remember those days? Eight of those nine teams remain in the conference (Maryland joined the Big 10). The ACC's other six members were in the Big East (Boston College, Miami, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Virginia Tech) and Conference USA (Louisville) back in 2000.

Big 10 Conference

In 2000, the Big 10 still had eleven members (don't bother asking them to change the name). Just like in 2009, the three members they have added were in the ACC (Maryland), Big East (Rutgers), and Big 12 (Nebraska) back in 2000.

Big 12 Conference

The Big 12 had twelve members in the year 2000, including the eventual national champion. Eight of the original twelve remain, and the two teams they have added were playing in the Big East (West Virginia) and WAC (TCU) in 2000.

Pac-12 Conference

The Pac-12 was still known as the Pac-10 in 2000. The ten teams from that season remain on board. Their newest members played in the Big 12 (Colorado) and Mountain West (Utah) in 2000.

Southeastern Conference

The SEC had twelve teams in 2000. Both of its new members (Missouri and Texas A&M) played in the Big 12 that season.

Now we can turn our attention to the Group of 5 (G5) conferences to see where their members were playing at the turn of the century.

American Athletic Conference

Nearly half of the teams in the American were in Conference USA in 2000 (Cincinnati, East Carolina, Houston, Memphis, and Tulane). Three teams were not part of any conference and were relatively new to IA football (Connecticut, South Florida, and UCF), two were in the WAC (SMU and Tulsa), and one was in the Big East (Temple). Temple was of course booted from the Big East, wandered through life as an independent, was scooped up by the MAC, and finally rejoined the Big East before it was completely torn asunder and for all intents and purposes, rechristened the American.

Conference USA

The current version of Conference USA is a true melting pot. Its current membership was in vastly different places in 2000. Southern Miss and UAB are the only two current conference members who were also members in 2000. Five members were not even playing IA football in 2000 (Florida Atlantic, Florida International, Old Dominion, Texas-San Antonio, and Western Kentucky)! Two current members were independents (Louisiana Tech and Middle Tennessee State), although they would join the WAC and Sun Belt respectively before joining Conference USA. Two teams were in the WAC (Rice and UTEP), one was in the MAC (Marshall), and one was even in the Big West (North Texas).

Mid-American Conference

Of the MAC's current thirteen members, the only one that was not a part of the league in 2000 was Massachusetts, which had yet to move up to IA football.

Mountain West Conference

Of the twelve current Mountain West Conference members, half were part of the league in 2000. In fact, these six teams (Air Force, Colorado State, New Mexico, San Diego State, UNLV, and Wyoming) were original members when the league formed by breaking away from the WAC. Speaking of the WAC, four current members (Fresno State, Hawaii, Nevada, and San Jose State) were playing in the WAC in 2000. The other two current members were both involved in the final season of the Big West (Boise State and Utah State). In fact, Boise won the final Big West football championship, giving them their second conference title as a IA program.

Sun Belt Conference

The Sun Belt did not exist in 2000, so it makes sense that all its members came from somewhere else. More than half of its current membership was not playing IA football in 2000 (Appalachian State, Georgia Southern, Georgia State, South Alabama, Texas State, and Troy). Three current members watched as the Big West faded away (Arkansas State, Idaho, and New Mexico State). Who knew Arkansas was in the west? I guess a school from the state was once in the Southwest Conference. And last, but not least, the two Louisiana schools (Lafayette and Monroe) were independents in 2000.

And finally, the let's look at the Independents.

Independents

Even hard-core college football fans may have forgotten about this one. Yes, for a brief time period, Army was a conference member. The Black Knights played football in Conference USA from 1998-2004. They never won more than two conference games in any season before returning to Independent status. Navy and Notre Dame were independents in 2000 and BYU was a member of the Mountain West Conference. matthttp://email@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-14955809.post-51411857372709785552014-08-24T06:05:00.006-07:002014-08-24T06:05:56.670-07:00Season Preview: Conference Affiliation in 2009The college football landscape has changed dramatically since the summer of 2009. Back in those halcyon days of old, the Big 12 still had twelve teams, the SEC was located in the southeast, and the Big East and WAC were still conferences. In order to give you a primer on all the changes, over the next three posts, I'll look at where the current ten conferences (and the Independents) have drawn their membership. We'll take a brief sojourn down memory lane and see where the current members of each conference were playing in three separate years: 2009, 2000, and 1995. We'll begin with 2009 and work our backward. Let's start with what are now known as the Power 5 (or P5) conferences.

Atlantic Coast Conference

The ACC currently has 14 teams, but in 2009, it had twelve, eleven of which are still in the league. The lone dissenter is of course, Maryland. The Terrapins packed up their shells and headed to the midwest to join the Big 10. The other three teams all played in the Big East in 2009 (Louisville, Pittsburgh, and Syracuse).

Big 10 Conference

Back in 2009, the Big 10 was still a bit of misnomer as the conference had eleven teams. Since 2009, three teams have joined, with each coming from a different conference. In 2009, Maryland was a member of the ACC, Nebraska was a Big 12 member, and Rutgers was pulling itself out of the primordial ooze in the Big East.

Big 12 Conference

Sometimes downsizing can be a good thing. While the league has lost four members (Colorado, Missouri, Nebraska, and Texas A&M) since 2009, it remains a powerful force. Eight of the original twelve members remain (Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, and Texas Tech), and the league has added TCU (a Mountain West member in 2009) and West Virginia (Big East), making the conference span half of the country.

Pac-12 Conference

The Pac-12 was known as the Pac-10 in 2009, and featured, you guessed it, ten teams. Those ten teams remain, and the league has added a Big 12 member (Colorado) and called up a mid-major from the Mountain West (Utah).

Southeastern Conference

The SEC was a twelve team league in 2009. The preeminent college football conference has since poached two solid Big 12 teams (Missouri and Texas A&M) to add to its coffers.

So that does it for the P5 conferences. What it boils down to is there has been a little game of musical chairs, but only two 'call-ups' (TCU and Utah). Remember, the Big East was considered a power conference in 2009 and five of its members (Louisville, Pittsburgh, Rutgers, Syracuse, and West Virginia) are now in P5 conferences. As such, there have been three demotions (Cincinnati, Connecticut, and South Florida) from the Big East to the Group of 5 (G5) conferences which we will tackle now.

American Athletic Conference

The current incarnation of the American (in its second year of existence) features the three Big East teams that were demoted by not being called up (Cincinnati, Connecticut, and South Florida). However, a majority of its members were in Conference USA just five seasons ago (East Carolina, Houston, Memphis, SMU, Tulane, Tulsa, and UCF). Finally, Temple was a member of the Mid-American Conference in 2009, when they were being revitalized under Al Golden.

Conference USA

So if a majority of Conference USA remained patriotic, but moved to the American, where were Conference USA members five years ago? Five of the twelve teams (Marshall, Rice, Southern Miss, UAB, and UTEP) from 2009 remain in the league. Reinforcements have come from the Sun Belt (Florida Atlantic, Florida International, Middle Tennessee State, North Texas, and Western Kentucky), the defunct Western Athletic Conference (Louisiana Tech), and from the non-IA ranks (Old Dominion and Texas-San Antonio).

Mid-American Conference

The MAC looks pretty much the same as it did in 2009. It was a thirteen team league then and is a thirteen team league now. The lone defection was Temple, who was replaced by Massachusetts when they moved up to IA.

Mountain West Conference

The Mountain West featured nine teams in 2009. It lost BYU, TCU, and Utah to independence, the Big 12, and the Pac-12 respectively. Buttressing the remaining six teams (Air Force, Colorado State, New Mexico, San Diego State, UNLV, and Wyoming) are six teams that were residents of the WAC in 2009 (Boise State, Fresno State, Hawaii, Nevada, San Jose State, and Utah State).

Sun Belt Conference

The Sun Belt featured nine teams in 2009. Four remain (Arkansas State, Louisiana-Lafayette, Louisiana-Monroe, and Troy), and they are joined by a pair of former WAC teams (Idaho and New Mexico State). However, nearly half of the current Sun Belt conference teams were not playing IA football a half-decade ago. Some have made the jump from IAA (Appalachian State, Georgia Southern, and Texas State), while others have started football programs from scratch (Georgia State and South Alabama).

And let's not forget about the independents.

Independents

Army, Navy, and Notre Dame were all independents in 2009. The only new addition is BYU which left the Mountain West Conference to move out on its own. Check back in tomorrow when we'll look at conference affiliation from the year 2000.matthttp://email@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-14955809.post-35572310333718266502014-08-21T17:12:00.002-07:002014-08-21T17:12:47.805-07:00The Degenerates Guide to the 2014 Season: Who Derives the Most ATS Benefit from Playing at HomeIn the last post we looked at how teams performed Against the Spread (ATS) versus their conference brethren both at home and away. We isolated the top ten performers in best and worst home record and best and worst road record. In this post, I want to do something a little different, but also something we have examined before (in a different manner). We will try to determine who derives the most benefit in regards to covering the spread at home. We'll be looking at the actual difference (road ATS winning percentage subtracted from home ATS winning percentage), ratio (home ATS winning percentage divided by road ATS winning percentage), and a composite method (actual difference multiplied by the ratio). For a primer on why I think using these three different methods is a good idea, please take a moment to read the other post. Done? Good. Without further delay, we'll begin with the teams that had the largest difference in their home ATS winning percentage versus their road ATS winning percentage.

Connecticut tops the list for biggest difference between their home and road ATS winning percentage. Considering they have covered more than 70% of the time in their home games, this is not terribly surprising. Of the teams with the biggest difference between their home and road ATS winning percentage, only Toledo covered less than 60% of the time at home. UCF is the only team on this list that did not have a losing ATS record on the road. Most of the teams on this list, outside of UNLV, have experienced a modicum of consistent success since 2005. Connecticut, UCF, Wake Forest, and Wisconsin all played in BCS bowl games. In addition, six teams (the aforementioned four plus East Carolina and Rice) won at least one conference title in that span. Now what if look at the ratio instead of the difference?

Most of the same teams appear on this list. The only new additions are Colorado, Colorado State, and Indiana (with East Carolina and UCF falling off the list). The three newbies, have relatively pedestrian home ATS marks (Colorado even has a losing record), but make up for it be being even worse on the road. With the new additions, we see a relative drop off in team quality. Colorado has not advanced to the postseason since 2007, ditto for Indiana, and Colorado State has just three bowl appearances since 2005. At the top of the list, UNLV has amazingly covered twice as often in Sin City as they have when leaving Las Vegas. And what about when we look at Composite Homefield Advantage (CHA)?

No new teams join the list when we use CHA. Connecticut, UNLV, and to a lesser extent Rice stand out as deriving the largest benefit when playing at home versus playing on the road. How does this ATS list compare to the standard won/loss difference from the post back in July? Eight teams appeared in at least one top-ten metric (difference, ratio, or composite) when looking at standard won/loss record and ATS record. Those teams are Connecticut, Colorado, Indiana, Rice, UCLA, UNLV, Wake Forest, and Wisconsin. These eight teams have been significantly better at home than on the road when evaluated by either their overall won/loss record or their ATS record. matthttp://firstname.lastname@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-14955809.post-46640572578010795092014-08-19T18:10:00.004-07:002014-08-19T18:10:18.920-07:00The Degenerates Guide to the 2014 Season: The Best and Worst Home and Road ATS RecordsA few weeks ago in a series of posts, I looked at the home and road performance of every IA team in conference play since 2005. Now I am going to take another look at home and road performance, but this time based only on the spread. If a team loses, but covers, that is counted as a win in this analysis. Let's get started with the best home teams since 2005. These ten teams have posted the best home conference winning percentage Against the Spread (ATS). For bookkeeping purposes, ties are not counted as half-wins and half-losses, but are instead excluded.

The top two teams in home ATS performance may come as a surprise to a few readers. But then again, maybe not. As you may remember, Rice and Connecticut were two teams that saw some of the biggest difference between their home and road performance in actual wins and losses. I am a little surprised Oregon makes this list as I thought they would be a shade over-valued when playing at home considering they have all the criteria of a team the betting public favors. They have been an elite team for the past few years, have a sexy offense, and feature avant-garde uniforms. Other minor surprises on this list include former Conference USA standouts UCF and East Carolina. And which teams have been deplorable at home?

If you have been betting on Syracuse at home over the last decade, you would have been better off buying some scratch offs. The least surprising team on this list is LSU. I chronicled the magic and mystery that is Les Miles against the spread here. It probably doesn't mean anything since such a small number of college football teams play in a dome, but Idaho and Syracuse play their home games indoors and have struggled mightily against the number there. The other two teams in this study who extensively played in domes were Tulane and Minnesota. Tulane's home ATS mark is 13-19 (.406) and Minnesota was 8-8 before moving into their new outdoor stadium (where they have also covered exactly half the time). Tulane is set to open their own outdoor stadium this season leaving Syracuse and Idaho, along with IA neophytes Georgia State and Texas-San Antonio, to represent the last bastion of dome teams. Some more tidbits on teams that have struggled ATS at home: Before hiring Tim DeRuyter, Fresno State was even worse. Under Pat Hill from 2005 to his firing in 2011, the Bulldogs went just 6-20-1 (.231) ATS at home. Michigan State's appearance on this list may be surprising to some. A significant portion of their poor record can be laid at the feet of noted psychopath John L Smith (1-7 home ATS mark), but the Spartans have not been as strong as one would think ATS at home under Mark Dantonio (11-16-1). Now, which teams have been road warriors?

Western Kentucky, a team that lost its first 18 games overall and first ten conference games as a IA member holds down the top spot. Joining the Hilltoppers as the other two teams to post ATS road marks greater than 70% are fellow mid-majors Ball State and Louisiana-Monroe. All told, three teams that spent their entire existence for the 2005-2013 time period in the Sun Belt appear on this list (the two Louisiana schools and Western Kentucky). It is also worth noting that two teams that appear on this list also posted very low home winning percentages ATS (Bowling Green and West Virginia). In fact, of the ten best road teams, all except Ohio State and Virginia Tech posted losing ATS marks at home. Speaking of Ohio State, they are the only team to appear on the best home and best road ATS lists. And finally, I present the teams with the worst ATS road records.

The Runnin' Rebels from UNLV own the distinction of posting the worst ATS road winning percentage. If you lived in Vegas, would you ever want to leave? Two teams from Colorado struggled when they left the thin mountain air. Of course, Colorado and Colorado State didn't exactly light things up at home, posting a combined 36-36-1 ATS mark on their home fields. Idaho is the only team to appear on the worst home and worst road ATS lists indicating they are a bad bet no matter where they play.

Before we conclude, here are a few more ATS tidbits. It appears the homefield advantage has been priced out of the Smurf Turf. Boise State has posted the best overall home record since 2005 (34-2 versus conference foes), but their ATS mark in that span is only 17-19. The Broncos have been particularly atrocious the past few seasons. After going 9-3 ATS in home conference games from 2005-2007, the Broncos are just 8-16 ATS in those contests since 2010 (including 2-10 since joining the Mountain West in 2011). The public is now giving Boise too much credit when they play at home. South Florida has also been particularly atrocious at home recently. The Bulls have gone just 2-14 ATS at home since 2010, first under Skip Holtz (1-11) and then under Willie Taggart (1-3) after posting good numbers under Jim Leavitt (10-5-1). As for teams heading in the opposite direction, Baylor is 16-7 ATS at home in the Big 12 since Art Briles took over in 2008 after posting a 3-9 ATS mark in their final three seasons in Waco under Guy Morriss. Baylor is also a sizzling 11-1 ATS at home since 2011. Finally, I want to shed some light on one of the best moneymakers of the last decade, who also happens to be my favorite coach, and is perhaps the best coach in NCAA history. Under Bill Snyder, the Kansas State Wildcats have gone 18-7 ATS at home (would rank second in home ATS win percentage) and 16-7-1 ATS on the road (would rank fourth in road ATS win percentage). Those are phenomenal numbers, especially over such a relatively large number of seasons. That's all for now. Stay tuned for the next post where we'll look at the teams with the biggest different between their home and road ATS performance. matthttp://firstname.lastname@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-14955809.post-56628999795696854752014-08-16T09:02:00.000-07:002014-08-16T09:02:31.827-07:00The Degenerates Guide to the 2014 Season: Win Total Under PlaysIn the last post, I gave you my top five 'over' win total plays for the 2014 college football season. In this post, we'll take a look at the five teams that I think are due to go 'under' their respective preseason win totals.

Duke under 8.5 @ -150
Last season was a historic one for Duke. The Blue Devils won ten games for the first time in school history, finished the season ranked for the first time since 1961, and nearly sent Johnny Manziel out a loser in the Chick-Fil-A Bowl. But alas, Duke enjoyed some extreme good fortune in their run to the ACC Championship Game, going 4-1 in close games during the regular season, while posting a middling yard per play differential (-.01) in conference games. The Blue Devils will probably win all four of their non-conference games in 2014 (Elon, @ Troy, Kansas, and Tulane), but they would still need to win five conference games to beat this number. Drawing Syracuse (more on them later) and Wake Forest from the Atlantic Division is a nice start, but the Blue Devils could be underdogs in all six of their Coastal Division games. Assuming they win the other six contests, asking them to split their Coastal Division matchups is asking a little too much.

Syracuse under 5.5 @ +120
Syracuse went bowling and finished with a winning record last season (their third bowl in four years), despite losing three games by a combined 147 points. The Orange didn't do anything particularly well, and actually finished more than two wins clear of their Adjusted Pythagorean Record. Combine those lackluster peripherals with an imposing schedule, and the Orange are a good bet to finish with a losing record. In non-conference action, they play Villanova, at Central Michigan, Maryland, and versus Notre Dame in East Rutherford, New Jersey. The Orange can be expected to beat Villanova, but Central Michigan on the road will be a test. Assuming they beat both the Wildcats and the Chippewas, the Orange will likely be underdogs against the Terrapins and Irish. If the Orange manage a 2-2 non-conference mark, they would need four conference wins to cash in for the 'over'. The Orange have the misfortune of hosting both Louisville and Florida State in conference play. Even assuming they pull an upset of one of those teams, the Orange would still need to split their remaining six games (NC State, Duke, @ Wake Forest, @ Clemson, @ Pitt, and @ Boston College). I can't imagine them doing that. Plus, you more than double your money if the Orange come up short. What's not to like?

Tennessee under 5.5 @ +120
The Volunteers have now endured four consecutive losing seasons! Maybe firing The Great Pumpkin wasn't such a bright idea? Tennessee has a brutal schedule in 2014, so the streak could reach a half-decade. Outside the SEC, the Volunteers face solid mid-major squads in Utah State and Arkansas State at home, before travelling to Oklahoma and hosting Chattanooga. The Oklahoma game is likely a lost cause, and Chattanooga is a sure win. I don't expect the Vols to actually lose to Arkansas State, but Utah State could give Tennessee all they want over the season's first weekend. If the Vols lose to the Aggies, you can go ahead and cash this ticket because they would need four conference wins to go 'over' the total. Drawing Alabama (at home) and Ole Miss (on the road) out of the SEC West is not the prescription for getting back to the postseason. Tennessee has a decent shot at getting to six wins in 2014, but I would say its a 50/50 proposition at best, and based on the payout for this bet, Vegas has it pegged closer to 55% the Vols hit the 'over'.

UCLA under 9.5 @ even
Do you know the last time UCLA won ten games in the regular season? Cade McNown was quarterbacking the team (and using ill-gotten handicap stickers). Don't buy into the Bruin hype. Yes, the Bruins could win their third Pac-12 South title in four years, but their yard per play differential was not befitting an elite team last season (+.17 in Pac-12 play). Keep in mind, Oregon and Stanford are still on the schedule. Those two teams held the UCLA offense, led by 'Heisman darkhorse Brett Hundley', to 24 total points last year. Granted, the Bruins get to host both teams this season, but even if they manage another 6-3 conference record, they will not make it over this win total. That is not even considering their non-conference dates at Virginia and versus Texas in Arlington. The Bruins are a huge favorite against the Cavs, but traveling cross-country for a Noon kickoff could produce a strange result. In addition, while the Bruins will probably be favored over Texas, the Longhorns are still a dangerous team. Getting this win total at even money is like stealing.

Washington State under 5.5 @ +105
Washington State managed to play in their first bowl game in a decade last season, but the Cougars were far from a good team. Just because you have a high volume of passes does not mean you have a great passing offense. The Cougars finished ninth in the Pac-12 in yards per play despite being conducted by Air Raid impresario Mike Leach. Assuming they beat Rutgers on opening night, the Cougars should sweep their three non-conference games. However, once the harrowing Pac-12 season begins, the Cougars could potentially be favored in just one game (home versus Cal). The Cougars lost big last season (all five of their league losses came by at least ten points with an average margin of defeat of nearly 27 points) and unless they engineer some stark improvement, getting to six wins will prove too difficult.

Outside of these five teams, there are a two others I saw that I could almost advise you to take.

South Carolina under 9.5 @ -125
I think Gamecock fans and the nation in general will realize just how much Connor Shaw meant to the team. For my money, he's the best quarterback in South Carolina history (Todd Ellis be damned). Would it really be that big of a shock if the Gamecocks lost two SEC games and then lost at Clemson?

Oklahoma under 10.5 @ -115
The Sooners are getting a lot of hype heading into the 2014 season thanks to one phenomenal performance. Granted, it did happen against Alabama, but over the course of nine Big 12 games, Oklahoma scored exactly as many offensive touchdowns as they allowed! Those are not numbers befitting a national title contender. Still, with all their big games coming at home, they may not lose twice in 2014.matthttp://email@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-14955809.post-90014733319557330502014-08-14T04:09:00.000-07:002014-08-14T04:09:02.226-07:00The Degenerates Guide to the 2014 Season: Win Total Over PlaysIn this edition of the Degenerates Guide, I will give you five teams that I think are poised to hit the 'over' on their projected win totals. I will include the team, the win total they must go 'over', and the price you must pay to take them. Without further adieu, here are my five top picks.

Arizona over 6.5 wins @ -175
While the price on this wager is a little high (you would need to bet 175 dollars in order to win 100), projecting Arizona to get to seven regular season wins does not require a large leap of faith. Rich Rod's first two Wildcats teams have finished with identical 7-5 regular season records. in both campaigns, they are 6-0 in non-conference play, and they should easily match that in 2014. Arizona's three non-conference opponents are all mid-majors. The Wildcats host both UNLV and Nevada, and hit the road to face Texas-San Antonio. In conference play, the Wildcats enjoy five home games, with Cal, Southern Cal, Colorado, Washington, and Arizona State all travelling to Tucson. Cal and Colorado should be easy victories, and even a pessimist could expect one win against the trio of Southern Cal, Washington, and Arizona State. If that comes to fruition, the Wildcats would need to win just one of their league road games to hit the over. In their quartet of road games, the Wildcats travel to Oregon, Washington State, UCLA, and Utah. Oregon and UCLA are probably out of the question, but I think the Wildcats can split in their trips to Pullman and Salt Lake City respectively. The Wildcats were not especially lucky or unlucky last season, but were pretty deserving of their 4-5 Pac-12 record. The only concern I have is they will be breaking in a new starting quarterback for the second consecutive season. However, whomever Rich Rod chooses to be his guy will have three non-conference tuneups to get acclimated to the rugged Pac-12.

Florida over 7.5 @ -130
Ah Florida. What can be said about your 2013 season that hasn't already been said? Fewest wins since 1979, first bowlless campaign since 1990, a loss to Georgia Southern when they were still a IAA team (two of your guys even blocked each other), and the worst loss to your in-state rival since 1988. Lost in all the hoopla though is this fact: Florida still fielded the best defense in the SEC last season, permitting conference foes just over five yards per play. Hell, even using the playbook of Amos Alonzo Stagg, they almost won at South Carolina. Remember, they almost won the SEC two seasons ago with the defense and running game formula. The Gators will lose one non-conference game (at Florida State) and one conference game (at Alabama), but in between, their only other true road games are Vanderbilt and Tennessee. I might even take a flyer on the Gators to win the SEC East.

Indiana over 5.5 @ +110
Can Kevin Wilson finally get his Hoosiers over the hump? The Hoosiers have improved in the win column each season under Wilson, going from one, to four, to five wins. Their conference win total has also improved, going from zero, to two, to three wins. If Indiana can get to three Big 10 wins this season, they will probably go bowling for the first time since 2007. Wilson had the Hoosiers humming on offense last season, as the team ranked third in the conference in yards per play (behind Ohio State and Wisconsin). However, the defense was another issue, as the team ranked dead last in permitting over seven yards per play. The offense returns eight starters, including the dynamic quarterback duo of Nate Sudfeld and Tre Roberson. The defense returns nine starters, and cannot possibly be any worse than they were last season. The Hoosiers face a pair of tough road games in non-conference play, travelling to Bowling Green and Missouri. The Hoosiers waxed a solid Bowling Green team in Bloomington last season, but a road game at a MAC power will not be an easy win. The Missouri game is a likely loss, and the other non-conference clashes at home against Indiana State and North Texas are likely wins. In conference play, the Hoosiers host Maryland, Michigan State, Penn State, and Purdue. If the Hoosiers can split those games, bowl eligibility should hinge on them winning one of their league road games against Iowa, Michigan, Rutgers, or Ohio State. Michigan and Ohio State are probably lost causes, and Iowa will be a challenge, but conference neophyte Rutgers presents a great shot at a road scalp. Perhaps the best news for Indiana fans is that Wisconsin is not on the schedule. The Badgers have beaten the Hoosiers by 63, 52, 48, and 48 points the past four seasons.

Nebraska over 8 @ even
Bo Pelini has probably hit the proverbial ceiling at Nebraska, but you know how many times he has lost more than four games in Lincoln? Never. And let's not forget, despite their disappointing play last season, the Huskers actually won nine games, including five in the Big 10, despite an in-conference turnover margin of -16. That's right, on average, in every Big 10 game, the Huskers spotted their opponent two turnovers and still won more than they lost. Suffice it to say, they won't be -16 in Big 10 play this season. The schedule is not too imposing either. There is a tricky non-conference road game at Fresno State and a home clash with Miami (first game since the 2001 Rose Bowl), but 3-1 should be the floor outside the league. In conference play, the Huskers travel to both Michigan State and Wisconsin, but avoid both Ohio State and Michigan. At worst, Nebraska should push, and if the Huskers beat Miami at home, there should be nothing stopping you from doubling your money.

Utah over 4.5 @ -175
Like Arizona, you have to pay a steep price to get the Utes, but I think they are worth it. Despite their 2-7 mark in the Pac-12 last season, the Utes should have won about two more conference games based on their Adjusted Pythagorean Record. Like Nebraska, the Utes also had a poor turnover margin in Pac-12 play (-12) and can expect that mark to get a little better this season. The Utes will probably only manage two non-conference wins, as they have to travel to Michigan in their third game, meaning they will need to win one third of their Pac-12 contests to cash in. It certainly will not be easy, but with Washington State and Colorado on the schedule, the Utes need only find another conference win in their remaining seven games.

Well, these are my five picks to cash in on the 'over'. In the next post, we'll examine the five teams I think are solid 'under' plays. matthttp://firstname.lastname@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-14955809.post-63936570401736426542014-08-11T03:55:00.002-07:002014-08-11T03:55:18.989-07:00The Degenerates Guide to the 2014 Season: Making a Mockery of the SpreadHello and welcome to our third installment of the Degenerates Guide to the 2014 Season. This is of course, my never-ending effort to give you an ever-so-slight advantage against the house. In this edition we'll examine teams that drastically over or under-perform against the spread in a given week and see what happens to them in their next game.

Before we get started, let's define what we mean by over or under-perform against the spread. Consider a hypothetical game. Team A is favored over Team B by 4 points. With the game tied in the waning minutes, Team A scores a late touchdown, kicks the extra point and wins by seven. With this result, Team A over-performed against the spread by three points, while Team B under-performed by three points. This result is not a dramatic departure from the expected result. The point spread pretty much nailed this game and whether or not you rejoiced in or cursed at the outcome had a great deal to do with randomness or luck. Now, consider a similar game where Team A is favored over Team B by 4 points. In this game, Team A takes an early lead and never looks back, winning by 30 points. In this scenario, Team A over-performed against the spread by 26 points, while Team B under-performed by 26 points. While randomness and luck played a small role in the outcome, its effect was muted thanks to the ease with which Team A dispatched Team B. This is the type of game we will be examining. Do teams that radically over-perform against the spread come crashing back to earth the next week? Do they continue their run of great play? Do teams that drastically under-perform against the spread bounce back the following week? Do they continue their listless play? Or is there performance the following week in either case unpredictable?

In attempting to answer these questions, I looked at each occurrence where a team either under or over-performed against the spread by at least 20 points in the past two regular seasons (2012 and 2013). I only considered games involving two IA opponents. It would seem that for every over-performance there would be a corresponding under-performance so the number of both instances would be the same. Here is why this is not the case. After the game with the over or under-performance, some teams played IAA opponents in their next game. These were not included. In addition, in some cases, after the game with the over or under-performance, some teams did not have a scheduled game (their regular season was over) and others did. Alright, with that housekeeping out of the way, let's get to analyzing.

In the two year sample, 235 teams over-performed against the spread by at least 20 points and played a follow-up game that met the criteria for inclusion explained above. Those 235 teams combined for an overall record of 121-107-7 Against the Spread (ATS). This is a winning percentage of 53.1% which is slightly above the 52.4% needed to turn a profit. This result is surprising to me. I figured teams that over-performed based on the spread would provide value when betting against them in their next game. If we separate those 235 teams in their next games as favorites or underdogs, we can further isolate an advantage. 157 of the 235 teams were favorites the next week. Those teams posted an ATS mark of 84-67-6 which equates to a winning percentage of 55.6%. Conversely 76 of the 235 teams were underdogs in their next game. Those teams went just 37-38-1 ATS for a winning percentage of 49.3%. Two teams were neither favored or underdogs in their next game (pick 'em). Neither covered. Hence, my advice is that when teams significantly over-perform against the spread, take a flyer on them in their next game if they are favored. Otherwise, stay away.

Now let's look at the teams that under-performed against the spread by at least 20 points. 224 teams under-performed against the spread by at least 20 points and played a follow-up game that met the criteria for inclusion explained above. Those 224 teams combined for an overall record of 97-123-4 ATS. This is a winning percentage of just 44.1%. Once again, the results are surprising to me. I figured drastically under-performing against the spread would make these teams under-valued and a solid play the next week. Ah, but facts occasionally make fools of us all. Can we find more advantages if we break these down by favorites and underdogs? Glad you asked. The answer is a resounding 'Yes'. When these teams that under-perform against the spread are favored in their next game (as was the case 88 times in the past two seasons), they managed just a 32-56 ATS mark. This winning percentage of 36.4% means going against these teams when they are favorites has typically been a great idea. However, when they are underdogs, the advantages disappear. 136 of the 224 teams were underdogs in their next game. These teams posted an ATS mark of 65-67-4 which equates to a winning percentage of 49.2%. These teams provide no value in betting either for or against them.

So, to sum things up: When teams drastically over-perform against the spread, they are a good play in their next game if they are favored. When teams radically under-perform against the spread, betting against them in their next game is a great idea if they are a favorite. If a team does not fit either of these criteria, take a pass on them, unless you enjoy coin flips.matthttp://firstname.lastname@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-14955809.post-44046809280688224792014-08-06T03:51:00.000-07:002014-08-06T03:51:17.283-07:00The Degenerates Guide to the 2014 Season: Extreme ATS TeamsIn the second installment of the Degenerates Guide to the 2014 Season, I will continue to help you look for ways to gain a slight edge on the point spread for the coming season. In this post we'll take a look at how teams that are extremely successful or extremely ineffective Against the Spread (ATS) perform ATS the following year. How do we define extremely successful or extremely ineffective? It's a little arbitrary, but for the purposes of this piece, an extremely successful ATS team will be one with two or fewer regular season ATS defeats. Similarly, an extremely ineffective ATS team will be one with two or fewer regular season ATS wins. Only games against other IA opponents were included. Games against IAA schools were not considered, even if there was a betting line at the time of the game. I examined every IA college football team since 2005 to determine which ones met these criteria.

So which teams were among the most successful ATS? 30 teams finished with two or fewer ATS defeats since 2005. These include a few national champions (2005 Texas and 2008 Florida), but also a diverse group of mid-majors (2006 Central Michigan, 2010 Hawaii, and 2011 Louisiana Tech to name a few). How did these teams perform the following season ATS? Overall, the 30 teams posted a losing ATS mark the following season, covering just over 48% of the time. This is not surprising, since teams tend to regress to the mean, and extreme performances are unlikely to be repeated. However, this does not mean betting against these teams with reckless abandon is a prudent decision. Remember, if you want to turn a profit, you need to win more than 52.4% of your wagers and the win percentage going against these teams is only 51.8%. So these teams don't post amazing ATS results the following year, but there is not enough of an advantage to make them worth playing. What if we dig a little deeper? If we examine how these teams perform in different roles, can we isolate a potential advantage? Yes we can. When these successful ATS performers come into a game as a favorite the next year, they cover only about 46% of the time (46.3%). In addition, when they enter a game as a double-digit favorite, they cover just 44% of the time. Going against these teams when they are favored or heavily favored can provide some small advantages.

So which teams from 2013 were extremely successful ATS and could provide some advantages when wagering against this year? Three teams from 2013 fit the criteria, and two of them played in the BCS National Championship Game. Florida State went 10-1-1 ATS in the regular season and Auburn went 10-2, making a mint for their backers last season. Houston also performed quite well in 2013, going 9-2 ATS. Scanning the opening week lines for 2014, all three are favored by double-digits meaning Arkansas, Oklahoma State, and Texas-San Antonio look to be solid plays over Labor Day Weekend.

What about the ineffective teams? 27 teams finished with two or fewer ATS victories since 2005. No great teams appear on this list, but a few mediocre squads (2006 Iowa, 2007 Alabama, and 2008 Fresno State) can be found among the dregs (2008 Washington and 2012 New Mexico State to name a few). How did these teams perform the following season ATS? Overall, the 27 teams improved, but still posted a losing ATS mark, covering just 49.5% of the time. Like their successful brethren, this winning percentage provides no value either on either side. Again, we need to dig a little deeper to find some advantageous scenarios. When these ineffective ATS teams were favored, they covered 53.2% of the time and when they were double-digit favorites, they covered 55% of the time. Those were the only instances when these teams provided marginal value either betting for or against them.

So which teams from 2013 were extremely ineffective ATS and could provide some advantages when wagering on this year? Four teams from 2013 fit the criteria, and all ranged from bad to horrendous. Colorado was the only team from a BCS conference that was extremely ineffective, posting a 2-9 ATS record. A pair of MAC teams, Eastern Michigan, and Miami of Ohio went 2-9 and 2-9-1 ATS respectively while UTEP managed just a 2-10 ATS mark. Perusing the opening lines for 2014, the only team from the quartet that is favored is Colorado. The Buffaloes are a small favorite against their in-state rivals Colorado State. The Buffs don't inspire a great deal of confidence, but they are probably worth a small play here.

Based on recent history, it appears Auburn, Florida State, and Houston are solid plays against when they are favored, and particularly when they are large favorites in 2014. Similarly, Colorado, Eastern Michigan, Miami of Ohio, and UTEP appear to be solid plays for in the rare instances when they are favored in 2014. As always, if you make any cash using these angles, feel free to send some my way. Until next time.matthttp://firstname.lastname@example.com