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Seasonal Allergies
Come get your commodities and inflation swaps here! Big discount on inflation protection! Come get them while you can! These deals won't last long!
Like the guy hawking hangover cures at a frat party, sometimes I feel like I am in the right place, but just a bit early. That entrepreneur knows that hangover cures are often needed after a party, and the people at the party also know that they'll need hangover cures on the morrow, but sales of hangover cures are just not popular at frat parties.
The 'disinflation party' is in full swing, and it is being expressed in all the normal ways: beat-down of energy commodities, which today collectively lost 3.2% as front WTI Crude futures dropped to a 2-year low (see chart, source Bloomberg),
…10-year breakevens dropped to a 3-year low (see chart, source Bloomberg),
…and 1-year inflation swaps made their more-or-less annual foray into sub-1% territory.
So it helps to remember that none of the recent thrashing is particularly new or different.
What is remarkable is that this sort of thing happens just about every year, with fair regularity. Take a look at the chart of 10-year breakevens again. See the spike down in late 2010, late 2011, and roughly mid-2013. It might help to compare it to the chart of front Crude, which has a similar pattern. What happens is that oil prices follow a regular seasonal pattern, and as a result inflation expectations follow the same pattern. What is incredible is that this pattern happens with 10-year breakevens, even though the effect of spot oil prices on 10-year inflation expectations ought to be approximately nil.
What I can tell you is that in 12 of the last 15 years, 10-year TIPS yields have fallen in the 30 days after October 15th, and in 11 of the past 15 years, 10-year breakevens were higher in the subsequent 30 days.
Now, a lot of that is simply a carry dynamic. If you own TIPS right now, inflation accretion is poor because of the low prints that are normal for this time of year. Over time, as new buyers have to endure less of that poor carry, TIPS prices rise naturally. But what happens in heading into the poor-carry period is that lots of investors dump TIPS because of the impending poor inflation accretion. And the poor accretion is due largely to the seasonal movement in energy prices. The following chart (source: Enduring Investments) shows the BLS assumed seasonality in correcting the CPI tendencies, and the actual realized seasonal pattern over the last decade. The tendency is pronounced, and it leads directly to the seasonality in real yields and breakevens.
This year, as you can tell from some of the charts, the disinflation party is rocking harder than it has for a few years. Part of this is the weakening of inflation dynamics in Europe, part is the fear that some investors have that the end of QE will instantly collapse money supply growth and lead to deflation, and part of it this year is the weird (and frustrating) tendency for breakevens to have a high correlation with stocks when equities decline but a low correlation when they rally.
But in any event, it is a good time to stock up on the "cure" you know you will need later. According to our proprietary measure, 10-year real yields are about 47bps too high relative to nominal yields (and we feel that you express this trade through breakevens rather than outright TIPS ownership, although actual trade construction can be more nuanced). They haven't been significantly more mispriced than that since the crisis, and besides the 2008 example they haven't been cheaper since the early days (pre-2003) when TIPS were not yet widely owned in institutional portfolios. Absent a catastrophe, they will not get much cheaper. (Importantly, our valuation metric has generally "beaten the forwards" in that the snap-back when it happens is much faster than the carry dynamic fades).
So don't get all excited about "declining inflation expectations." There is not much going on here that is at all unusual for this time of year.
Why So Many Inflation Market Haters All of a Sudden?
The inflation market offers such wonderful opportunities for profit since so few people understand the dynamics of inflation, much less of the inflation market.
One of the things which continually fascinates me is how the inflation trade has become sort of a "risk on" kind of trade, in that when the market is pricing in better growth expectations, reflected in rising equity prices, inflation expectations move with the same rhythm.[1] The chart below (source: Bloomberg) shows the 10-year inflation breakeven rate versus the S&P 500 index. Note how closely they ebb and flow together, at least until the latest swoon in inflation expectations.
Your knee-jerk reaction might be that this is a spurious correlation caused by the fact that (a) bond yields tend to rise when growth expectations rise and (b) when bond yields rise, the components of bond yields – including both real rates and expected inflation – tend to rise. But look at the chart below (source: Bloomberg), covering the same period but this time charting stocks versus real yields.
If anything, real yields ought to be more correlated to movements in equities than inflation expectations, since presumably real economic growth is directly related to the real growth rates embedded in equity prices. But to my eyes at least, the correlation between real interest rates and equity prices, for which there is a plausible causal explanation, doesn't look nearly as good as the relationship between stocks and inflation expectations.
It doesn't make any sense that long-term inflation expectations should be so closely related to equity prices. I know I have mentioned before – in fact, regular readers are probably sick of me pointing it out – that there is no causal relationship between growth and inflation. Really, it is worse than that: one really needs to torture the data to find any connection at all, causal or not. The chart below (source: Bloomberg) shows quarterly real GDP in yellow against core inflation in white.
I've pointed out before that the big recession in '08-09 saw almost no deceleration in core inflation (and none at all if you remove housing from core inflation), but it's hard to find a connection anywhere. The next chart (source: Bloomberg) makes the point a different way, simply plotting core inflation (y-axis) against real GDP (x-axis) quarterly back to 1980.
In case anyone out there is protesting that there should be a lagged relationship between growth and inflation, I am happy to report that I was able to get an r-squared as higher as 0.257 with a lag of 12 quarters. Unfortunately, the lag goes the wrong way: high inflation precedes high growth, not vice-versa. And I don't know anyone who proffers a reasonable explanation of a causality running in that direction. Lags the other way fail to produce any r-squared over 0.1.
So, how to explain the fact that since the end of August we have seen 10-year real rates rise 29 basis points while 10-year breakevens were falling 12bps (producing a net rise in nominal rates of only 17bps)? The explanation is simple: the market is wrong to treat breakevens as a "risk on/risk off" sort of trade. Breakevens have cheapened far too much. I don't know if that means that TIPS yields have risen too much, or nominal yields have risen too little (I rather expect the former), but the difference is too narrow. The short end of the US curve (1 year inflation swaps are at 1.44%) implies either that core inflation will decline markedly from its already-depressed level well below median inflation, or that energy prices will decline sharply and much further than implied by gasoline futures.
I think that one of the reasons US inflation has been under pressure is that it is currently at a very large spread versus European inflation, and earlier this month it was at the highest level in at least a decade (see chart, source Enduring Investments).
This may look like an appealing short, perhaps, but based on our internal analysis and some historical relationships we track we actually believe the spread is too low by about 50bps. And think about it this way: if Europe really is in the process of inheriting Japan's lost decade, then 10-year expectations for the US ought to be much, much higher than in Europe. I don't really think Europe will end up there, because the ECB seems to be trying to do the right thing, but it is not unreasonable to think that there should be a hefty premium to US inflation over Europe.
[1] Of course, the correlation of levels won't be very good because stocks have an upward bias over time while inflation expectations do not. To run the correlation, you'd have to de-trend stocks but I'm trying to make a visceral point here rather than a quantitative one.
Hot Button Issue: Rant Warning
We all have our hot button issues. It will not surprise you, probably, to learn that mine involves inflation. For the rant which follows, I apologize.
Reasonable people, smart people, learned people, can disagree on how precisely the Consumer Price Index captures the inflation in consumer prices. And indeed, over the one hundred years that the CPI has been published such disagreements have been played out among academics, politicians, labor leaders, and others. The debates have raged and many changes – some large, some small; some politically-driven, most not – have occurred in how prices have been collected and the index calculated. If you are interested, really interested, in the century-long history of the CPI, you can read a couple of histories here and here.
If someone is not interested in how CPI is calculated, in how and why changes were made in the methodological approach to calculating price change, then that's fine. But if a person can't spend the time to learn the very basics of this hundred-year debate, during which changes were made in the CPI with much public input, not in a smoky back room somewhere, then I wonder why such a person would spend time spewing conspiracy theories on the internet about how the CPI doesn't include food and energy (um…it does), about how the CPI underestimates prices because it doesn't account for changes in quality and quantity (um…it does), or about how sneaky methodological changes have caused the CPI to be understated by 7% per year for thirty years.
Recently, the CFA Institute's monthly magazine for CFA Charterholders was duped into accepting an article that brings together some of the dumbest theories into one place. At some level, the article asks the "interesting" question about whether a consumer price index should include asset prices. Interesting, perhaps, but asked-and-answered: assets are not consumer goods but stores of value. If you are not consuming something, then why would you ever expect it to be included in a consumer price index? You might argue that we should include asset prices into some other sort of index that measures price increases. But we already do. They are called asset price indices, and you know them by names like the S&P 500, the NCREIF, and so on.
Worse, the magazine gives a great big stage to the person who has singlehandedly done more to confuse and anger people, to poison the well of knowledge about inflation, and to stir up the conspiracy theorists about inflation, than anyone else in the world – and all because he is selling an 'analysis' product to those people. I won't mention his name here because I don't want to advertise his product, but he claims that the CPI is understated by "about 7 percentage points each year."
That this is being published in a magazine of the CFA Institute is almost enough for me to renounce my membership. It is offensively idiotic to claim that the CPI may be understated by 7% per year, and simple math (which CFA Charterholders were once required to be able to perform) can prove that. If inflation has risen at a pace of around 2.5% per year over the last 30 years, it implies the price level has risen about 110% (1.025^30-1). This seems more or less right. But if inflation had really been 9.5% per year, as claimed, then the cost of the average consumption basket would have risen about 1422% (1.095^30-1).
Can that be right? Well, Real Median Household Income, using the CPI to deflate nominal household income, has risen about 13% over the last 30 years. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Median_US_household_income.png But if we use the 9.5%-per-year CPI number, then real median household income has actually fallen 84%. If this was true, we would be living in absolute Third-World squalor compared to how things were in the salad days of 1984. You don't have to be an economist to know the difference between a slightly-better standard of living and one in which you can afford 1/6th of what you could previously afford. You just need a brain.
Any person who does even rudimentary research on the CPI – say, visiting http://www.inflationinfo.com and reading some of the hundreds of papers gathered there, or perusing the BLS website, or speaking with an actual inflation expert – cannot possibly think that this guy is anything other than a nut or a shill. It is a tragedy that the CFA Institute would publish such trash, and it tarnishes the CFA Institute brand. Let's hope they publish an apologetic retraction in the next issue.
I also like to point out, when I am in rant mode over this (and, as an aside, let me thank the tolerant reader for allowing me to rant – this allows me to forever point people to this link when they bring up this guy), that if the CPI=9.5% number is right then you must also believe a bunch of other ridiculous things:
First: MIT is in on the conspiracy. The Billion Prices Project, which uses very different methodology from the BLS, figures inflation to be about the same as the BLS does. (Digressing for a bit, I think it's also interesting that the BPP index has tracked Median CPI much better than headline CPI over the last year, when headline CPI has been dragged lower by one-off changes in medical care prices).
Second: Consumers consistently underestimate inflation, or else are serially optimistic about how it is likely to decline from 9.5% to something much lower. The University of Michigan survey of year-ahead inflation expectations – and every other consumer survey of inflation expectations – is much closer to reported inflation than to the shill's numbers (see chart below, source Bloomberg). I've written elsewhere about why consumers might perceive slightly higher inflation than really occurs, but I cannot come up with a theory that explains why consumers would always say it's much lower than what they are in fact seeing. Maybe we're all stupid except for this guy with the website.
Third, and related to the prior point: Investors who pour money into inflation-indexed bonds must be complete morons, because they are locking up money for ten years at what is "really" -9% real yields (meaning that they are surrendering 62% of the real purchasing power of their wealth, rather than spending it immediately). We don't see this behavior in countries where it is known that the official index is manipulated. For example, we know that in Argentina the inflation data really is rigged, and in September of last year long-dated inflation-linked bonds in Argentina were showing real yields of more than 20%. In recent months, the government of Argentina has begun to release figures that are much more realistic and real yields have plunged to around 10% as investors are giving the data more credibility. The upshot is that we have bona fide evidence that investors will base their demanded real yields on the difference between the inflation index they are being paid on and the inflation they think they are actually seeing. The fact that we don't see TIPS real yields around 6% or 7% is evidence that investors are either really stupid, or they believe the CPI is at least approximately right.
Fourth, and related to that point: if inflation has really being running at 9.5%, then every asset is a losing proposition. There is no way to protect yourself against inflation. You're not really getting wealthy as you ride stocks higher; you're only losing more slowly. Since there is no asset class that has returned 10% over a long period of time, we are all doomed. The money is all going away. Especially housing, and real goods like hard commodities – there is nothing you can do that is much worse than holding real stuff, which is only going up in price a couple of percent per year over time while inflation is (apparently) ravaging everything we know and love. There is no winning strategy. Of course, the good news is that it turns out that the U.S. government is being extremely fiscally responsible, with the real deficit falling by 5% or more every year. Right.
I really should not let this bother me. It is good for me, as an investor with a brain, when mindless zombie minions follow this guy and do dumb things in the market. But I can't help it. The Internet could be a tool for great good, allowing people access to accurate, timely information and the opportunity to learn things that they couldn't otherwise. It allows this author to come into your mailbox, or onto your screen, to try to educate or illuminate or amuse you. But there is also so much detritus, so much rubbish, so much terribly erroneous information out there that does real harm to those who consume it. And perhaps this is why I get so exercised about this issue: I absolutely believe that people have a right to say and to believe whatever they want, no matter how stupid or dangerous. I am simply aghast, and deeply saddened, that so many people are so credulous that they believe what they read, without critical thought of their own. Everyone has a right to his/her opinion, but they are not all equally valid. There is no FDA for the Internet, so snake-oil salesmen run rampant among their eager marks.
I want my readers to think. If you all agree with me, then I know you're not all thinking! Look, it is perfectly reasonable to suggest that some minor improvements can be made to CPI. The number has been tweaked and improved for a hundred years, and it will be tweaked and improved some more in the future. It is in my opinion not reasonable to suppose that the number is completely made up and/or drastically incorrect. And that's my opinion.
Global cc: on a Note About Inflation Confusions
I haven't written in a couple of weeks – a combination of quiet markets, and a lack of intersection between stuff that's interesting to write about and my having time to write – but I thought I would "global cc" everyone on something I just wrote in a private email about some common misconceptions regarding the CPI:
A friend and longtime reader (name withheld) writes:
I thought you might find these interesting….
My response is below:
Thanks. Unfortunately Stockman doesn't understand what he's talking about. He understands better than most, but then he starts saying how the BLS asks homeowners what their homes would rent for…which they do, but only to determine weights, every couple of years, not to determine OER. It says this very clear in a paper on the BLS website called "Treatment of Owner-Occupied Housing in the CPI:"
"To obtain the expenditure weights for the market basket…Homeowners are asked the often-cited question:
If someone were to rent your home today, how much do you think it would rent for monthly, unfurnished and without utilities?
This is the only place where the answers to this question is used; in determining the share of the market basket. We do not use this question in measuring the change in the price of shelter services."
For that purpose – calculating inflation itself – a survey of actual rents is used. I can understand how the casual observer doesn't 'get' this, but there's no excuse for Stockman not to know, especially if he is railing about the CPI…he should take some time to understand its main piece.
In short, Stockman writes a good populist screed, but he avoids the main questions:
1. Is headline inflation a better predictor of future inflation than core inflation? Answer: No, even if we can now realize that the rise in energy prices was a permanent feature of the decade ended in 2010, it tells us exactly nothing about whether those are likely to persist. The Fed uses core CPI not because they don't think people use cars (whenever a columnist uses that silly argument, I know they're just writing to please a certain audience), but because core CPI is persistent statistically in a way that headline is not. In fact, some Fed statisticians prefer median, or trimmed-mean, neither of which proscribes any particular category. So whining about how the Fed doesn't include the particular brand of inflation that concerns you misunderstands how and why policymakers actually use measures of inflation in policymaking.
2. Suppose the CPI represents a miserable mis-estimation of actual inflation. Then, pray tell, why does a trillion-dollar market based on that index get priced as if it is accurate? In Argentina, where the inflation numbers are made up, the inflation-linked bonds trade very cheap because they will pay off in a number that is assumed to be too low. And the bond yields are too high by roughly the amount that inflation is assumed to be understated in the future. Markets are efficient, especially big markets. How did the Fed manage to convince at least $1T in private money to misprice the bond market?
3. If the CPI is so wrong, so manipulated, then why to measures of inflation that the government has nothing to do with, like the Billion Prices Project, come up with the same number?
It's nice that Stockman has a following. And he's gotten the following partly by ranting about a number people love to hate. That gets him read, but it doesn't make him right.
Ex-Communication Policy
Well, I guess it would be hard to have a clearer sign that investors are over their skis than to have the Fed drop the portion of their communique that was most-binding – in a move that was fully anticipated by almost everyone and telegraphed ahead of time by NY Fed President Dudley – and watch markets decline anyway.
To be sure, the stock market didn't exactly plunge, but bonds took a serious hit and TIPS were smacked even worse. TIPS were mainly under pressure because there is an auction scheduled for tomorrow and it was dangerous to set up prior to the Fed meeting, not because there was something secretly hawkish about the Fed's statement. Indeed, they took pains to say that "a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy remains appropriate," and apparently they desire for policy to remain highly accommodative for longer relative to the unemployment threshold than they had previously expressed.
The next Fed tightening (let us pretend for a moment that the taper is not a tightening – it obviously is, but let's pretend that we're only talking about overnight interest rates) was never tied to a calendar, and it would be ridiculous to do so. But it seems that maybe some investors had fallen in love with the idea that the Fed would keep rates at zero throughout 2015 regardless of how strong or how weak the economy was at that time, so that when the Fed's members projected that rates might reach 1% by the end of 2015 – be still, my heart! – these investors had a conniption.
Now, I fully expect the Fed to tighten too little, and too late. I also expect that economic growth will be sufficiently weak that we won't see interest rates rise in 2015 despite inflation readings that will be borderline problematic at that time. But that view is predicated on my view of the economy and my assessment of the FOMC members' spines, not on something they said. You should largely ignore any Fed communication unless it regards the very next meeting. They don't know any better than you do what the economy is going to be doing by then. If they did, they would only need one meeting a year rather than eight. Focus on what the economy is likely to be doing, and you'll probably be right more often than they are.
Arguably, this was not the right theory when the Fed was simply pinning rates far from the free-market level, but as the Fed's boot comes off the market's throat we can start acting like investors again rather than a blind, sycophantic robot army of CNBC-watching stock-buying machines.
Now, I said above that "the stock market didn't exactly plunge," and that is true. On the statement, it dropped a mere 0.3% or so. The market later set back as much as 1%, with bonds taking additional damage, when Chairman Yellen said that "considerable period" (as in "a considerable period between the end of QE and the first rate increase) might mean six months.
Does that tell you anything about the staying power of equity investors, that a nuance of six months rather than, say, nine or twelve months of low rates, causes the market to spill 1%? There are a lot of people in the market today who don't look to own companies, but rather look to rent them. And a short-term rental, at that, and even then only because they are renting them with money borrowed cheaply. For the market's exquisite rally to unravel, we don't need the Fed to actually raise rates; we need markets to begin to discount higher rates. And this, they seem to be doing. Watch carefully if 10-year TIPS rates get back above 0.80% – the December peak – and look for higher ground if those real yields exceed 1%. We're at 0.60% right now.
Stocks will probably bounce over the next few days as Fed speakers try and downplay the importance of the statement and of Yellen's press conference remarks (rhetorical question: how effective is a communication strategy if you have to re-explain what you were communicating)? If they do not bounce, that ought also to be taken as a bad sign. Of course, I continue to believe that there are many more paths leading to bad outcomes for equities (and bonds!) than there are paths leading to good outcomes. Meanwhile, commodity markets were roughly unchanged in aggregate today…
Do Floating-Rate Notes (FRNs) Protect Against Inflation?
Since the Treasury this week auctioned floating-rate notes (FRNs) for the first time, it seems that it is probably the right time for a brief discussion of whether FRNs protect against inflation.
The short answer is that FRNs protect against inflation slightly more than fixed-rate bonds, but not nearly as well as true TIPS-style bonds. This also goes, incidentally, for CPI-linked floaters that pay back par at maturity.
However, there are a number of advisors who advocate FRNs as an inflation hedge; my purpose here is to illustrate why this is not correct.
There are reasonable-sounding arguments to be made about the utility of FRNs as an inflation hedge. Where central bankers employ a Taylor-Rule-based approach, it is plausible to argue that short rates ought to be made to track inflation fairly explicitly, and even to outperform when inflation is rising as policymakers seek to establish positive real rates. And indeed, history shows this to be the case as LIBOR tracks CPI with some reasonable fidelity (the correlation between month-end 3m Libor and contemporaneous Y/Y CPI is 0.59 since 1985, see chart below, data sourced from Bloomberg).
It bears noting that the correlation of Libor with forward-looking inflation is not as strong, but these are still reasonable correlations for financial markets.
The correlation between inflation and T-Bills has a much longer history, and a higher correlation (0.69) as a result of tracking well through the '80s inflation (see chart below, source Bloomberg and Economagic.com).
And, of course, the contemporaneous correlation of CPI to itself, if we are thinking about CPI-linked bonds, is 1.0 although the more-relevant correlation, given the lags involved with the way CPI floaters are structured, of last year's CPI to next year's CPI is only 0.63.
Still, these are good correlations, and might lead you to argue that FRNs are likely good hedges for inflation. Simulations of LIBOR-based bonds compared to inflation outcomes also appear to support the conclusion that these bonds are suitable alternatives to inflation-linked bonds (ILBs) like TIPS. I simulated the performance of two 10-year bonds:
Bond 1: Pays 1y Libor+100, 10y swaps at 2.5%.
Bond 2: Pays an annual TIPS-style coupon of 1.5%, with expected inflation at 2.0%.
Note that both bonds have an a priori expected nominal return of 3.5%, and an a priori expected real return of 1.5%.
I generated 250 random paths for inflation and correlated LIBOR outcomes. I took normalized inflation volatility to be 1.0%, in line with current markets for 10-year caps, and normalized LIBOR volatility to be 1.0% (about 6.25bp/day but it doesn't make sense to be less than inflation, if LIBOR isn't pegged anyway) with a correlation of 0.7, with means of 2% for expected inflation and 2.5% for expected LIBOR and no memory. For each path, I calculated the IRR of both bonds, and the results of this simulation are shown in the chart below.
You can see that the simulation produced a chart that seems to suggest that the nominal internal rates of return of nominal bonds and of inflation-linked bonds (like TIPS) are highly correlated, with a mean of about 3.5% in each case and a correlation of about 0.7 (which is the same as an r-squared, indicated on the chart, of 0.49).
Plugged into a mean-variance optimization routine, the allocation to one or the other will be largely influenced by the correlation of the particular bond returns with other parts of the investor's portfolio. It should also be noted that the LIBOR-based bond may be more liquid in some cases than the TIPS-style bond, and that there may be opportunities for credit alpha if the analyst can select issuers that are trading at spreads which more than compensate for expected default losses.
The analysis so far certainly appears to validate the hypothesis that LIBOR bonds are nearly-equivalent inflation hedges, and perhaps even superior in certain ways, to explicitly indexed bonds. The simulation seems to suggest that LIBOR bonds should behave quite similarly to inflation-linked bonds. Since we know that inflation-linked bonds are good inflation hedges, it follows (or does it?) that FRNs are good inflation hedges, and so they are a reasonable substitute for TIPS. Right?
However, we are missing a crucial part of the story. Investors do not, in fact, seek to maximize nominal returns subject to limiting nominal risks, but rather seek to maximize real return subject to limiting real risks.[1]
If we run the same simulation, but this time calculate the Real IRRs, rather than the nominal IRRs, a very different picture emerges. It is summarized in the chart below.
The simulation produced the assumed equivalent average real returns of 1.5% for both the LIBOR bond and the TIPS-style bond. But the real story here is the relative variance. The TIPS-style bond had zero variance around the expected return, while the LIBOR bond had a non-zero variance. When these characteristics are fed into a mean-variance optimizer, the TIPS-style bond is likely to completely dominate the LIBOR bond as long as the investor isn't risk-seeking. This significantly raises the hurdle for the expected return required if an investor is going to include LIBOR-based bonds in an inflation-aware portfolio.
So what is happening here? The problem is that while the coupons in this case are both roughly inflation-protected, since LIBOR (it is assumed) is highly correlated to inflation, there is a serious difference in the value of the capital returned at the maturity of the bond. In one case, the principal is fully inflation-protected: if there has been 25% inflation, then the inflation-linked bond will return $125 on an initial $100 investment. But the LIBOR-based bond in this case, and in all other cases, returns only $100. That $100 is worth, in real terms, a widely varying amount (I should note that the only reason the real IRR of the LIBOR-based bond is as constrained as it appears to be in this simulation is because I gave the process no memory – that is, I can't get a 5% compounded inflation rate, but will usually get something close to the 2% assumed figure. So, in reality, the performance in real terms of a LIBOR bond is going to be even more variable than this simulation suggests.
The resolution of the conundrum is, therefore, this: if you have a floating rate annuity, with no terminal value, then that is passably decent protection for an inflation-linked annuity. But as soon as you add the principal paid at maturity, the TIPS-style bond dominates a similar LIBOR bond. "Hooray! I got a 15% coupon! Boo! That means my principal is worth 15% less!"
The moral of the story is that if your advisor doesn't understand this nuance, they don't understand how inflation operates on nominal values in an investor's portfolio. I am sorry if that sounds harsh, but what is even worse than the fact that so many advisors don't know this is that many of those advisors don't know that they don't know it!
[1] N.b. Of course, they seek to maximize after-tax real returns and risks, but since the tax treatments of ILBs and Libor floaters are essentially identical we can abstract from this detail.
RE-BLOG: Groucho And Holiday Inn Express
Note: The following blog post originally appeared on March 28th, 2010 and is part of a continuing year-end 'best of' series, calling up old posts that some readers may have not seen before. I have removed some of the references to then-current market movements and otherwise cut the article down to the interesting bits. You can read the original post here.
Some bond bears were probably also scared by the fact that CNBC asked the question on Friday, "Time To Sell Bonds To Buy Stocks?" (Remind me when they last asked whether it was time to sell stocks to buy…anything?) They're half right this time, I think, but I don't like having them as company either. Balancing the Groucho effect ("I don't want to belong to any club that would accept people like me as a member") is the Holiday Inn Express effect (in which people develop amazing abilities unrelated to their backgrounds: "Are you a doctor?" "No, but I stayed at a Holiday Inn Express last night"). Barron's, specifically Michael Santoli, who writes the "Streetwise" column, sought to explain why rising yields are good for stocks. When equity guys are busy telling the bond vigilantes why they're not scared of them…they're scared of them.
During a day in which there was little in the way of economic data, several Fed speakers were on the tape. While it is ordinarily very important to listen attentively to comments from Fed officials, these days it isn't so crucial because we know what conditions will lead to meaningful tightening and they (much lower unemployment rate, some sign of broad core inflation including housing) aren't going to happen any time soon. Why? Dr. Bernanke is fighting a desperate rear guard action against those people who reasonably question whether the Fed has been all it's cracked up to be. The threat is real; Fed Governor Kevin Warsh on Friday stated that Fed credibility would suffer if independence was lost. Although this statement raises other questions (namely, "what credibility??), it is indicative of the FOMC's mood. If you think Bernanke is going to tighten rates meaningfully when Unemployment is near 10%…or 9%…or 8%…and risk having the Fed's independence stripped, I think you ought to think again. Of course, this means that the de facto independence of the Fed is questionable, but anyone who thinks that this is a fight the Fed should pick shortly after the bottom of the worst recession in at least 30 and maybe 80 years, please raise your hand. I didn't think so.
A Word About Current Value In Long TIPS
When investors are thinking about what assets to include in their portfolios, they obviously care about both risk and return. Of course, the problem is that they care about a priori risk and return, which are unknowable, and so tend to populate portfolio allocation simulations with estimates of long-run returns that are no better than guesses (we tend to have a better sense of long-run variances, although what causes problems there is that the distribution is not normal). This is why equities are so dominant in many portfolios, despite their evident short-term risk: generally, investors make one of three key errors in looking at long-run equity returns:
- They use long-run historical nominal returns to form the estimate. Investors shouldn't care about nominal returns at all, so this is clearly incorrect.
- They use long-run historical real returns. This is better, but it neglects the fact that most historical periods which terminate in the last decade-plus will also reflect multiple expansion as a source of return. There is no good reason to expect that the multiple expansion of the last eighty years will repeat over the next eighty.
- They use a tortured interpretation of the Capital Asset Pricing Model to back out high expected returns for equities. "Stocks are riskier; therefore, they should have a higher return." The CAPM isn't meant to be a causal model but rather an observation about how capital assets should be priced. If riskiness implies more return, then lottery tickets should be the best investment.
But we can look at long-term data in a more thoughtful way and get a better sense for what a fair return to equities is, in the long run. Brad Cornell and Rob Arnott wrote a short article ("The 'Basic Speed Law' for Capital Markets Returns") that pointed out three important long-term truisms. First, the long-run growth rate of per-capita GDP in the U.S., a measure closely related to productivity growth, has been around 2% for the last 100 years. Second, if the real economy is growing around 2% per capita in the long run, then earnings in the corporate sector must also be limited to roughly that growth (since otherwise it would soon become larger than the economy itself). And third, if the growth of earnings is limited similarly, then stock price index growth must be limited to something similar as well, net of valuation changes.
The version of the chart which appears below is sourced from Census, BEA, and Robert J Shiller data, and updated through the end of 2009. Over the last 80 years, the compounded growth rate of real per capita GDP has been 2.1%; for real earnings it is 2.6%; and for stock prices it is 1.8%. However, those rates are computed using arbitrary end points – December 1929 and December 2009. A better way is to run an exponential regression, and on the chart the straight lines are the results of that regression (the line appears straight because the axes are loglinear, so the regression line is linear in log space). The growth rates then are 2.25% for real per capita GDP, 1.74% for real earnings (n.b., if you take out 2008Q4-2009Q3, the coefficient is 1.95%), and 2.87% for the real stock price growth rate.
Now, 2.87% as a long-run real growth rate for equities doesn't sound great, but it's actually even exaggerated because over that period, equity multiples expanded from 13.3x earnings to 21.6x earnings, so a bunch of that return is coming from multiple expansion that may not repeat. If the current multiple is fair (I think it's high, but let's be generous), then the long-run expected return to equities ought to be similar to the long-run expected growth in earnings, which is limited to the long-run growth in GDP per capita. Or, roughly, 2-2.25% (There really isn't a lot of difference here, actually; real GDP uses the GDP deflator to measure price inflation, while real earnings uses CPI; the latter is generally about 0.25% or so higher, so these are essentially both 2%, if you use CPI, or 2.25%, if you want to use the deflator.)
That's what you can expect to get from equities in the truly long-run, plus dividends – of 1.8% on the S&P right now. With that long-run growth, of course, comes a ton of volatility. Meanwhile, you can get a 30-year real yield of 2.17% from TIPS, with much less volatility (and no volatility at a horizon equal to the duration of the bond). Moreover, remember TIPS pay based on CPI, which is the "faster" of the two inflation measures used above.
So, unless you are into market timing, TIPS are currently priced to produce a long-run real return equal to stocks, with less volatility. That's a decent deal! If we get a big rate sell-off, that deal may get better still, but while the short end of the TIPS curve doesn't look terribly attractive the long end remains reasonable.
You can follow me @inflation_guy, or subscribe to receive these articles by email here.


text:
Abstract available in
Claims available in
Description (OCR text may contain errors)
Sept 22, 1970 E. w.sTEPHENsoN 3,529,677
GRADER BLADE Filed may 15, 1968 FIG-2 INVENTOR EARLE A w. sTEPHENso/v United States Patent O 3,529,677 j GRADER BLADE Earle W. Stephenson, Latrobe, Pa., assignor to Kennametal Inc., Latrobe, Pa., a corporation of Pennsylvania Filed May 15, 1968, Ser. No. 729,363 Int. Cl. A0111 35/26 U.S. Cl. 172-767 8 Claims ABSTRACT F THE DISCLOSURE A replaceable steel edge for the blade of a grader or the like is grooved along the working edge and has blocks of a cemented hard metal carbide mounted therein, preferably, by brazing. The bladge edge is divided into sections shorter than the blade and the sections are mounted on the blade in end to end relation.
The high wear resistance of the carbide block permits the blade edge to be made thicker in the fore and aft direction and narrower in the top to bottom direction for greater stiffness of the sections.
The carbide blocks are set at an angle to the vertical axis of the sections to provide for improved wearing characteristics of the blade section.
This invention relates to cutting blade edges for the blades of graders and the like, and is particularly concerned with such blade edges which have hard edging applied therto.
Grader blade structures are ovell known and comprise a fairly long support member of steel, usually concave on the forward side and adapted for mounting beneath or in front of a power device, such as a tractor. Means is provided for raising and lowering the support member and for tilting it in the lateral direction. The blade includes a detachable edge portion, thicker than the support member and attached to the lower edge of the support member and projecting downwardly therefrom. Such blade edges are made of good grade of steel and are bolted to the support member and withstand most of the abrasion and abuse to which the blade assembly is subjected in use.
The wear rate of a grader blade edge can be extremely high at times, particularly where the :ground being worked is sandy or contains a .great many stones and, when a blade wears down to beyond a predetermined point, it must be replaced fwith another. The replacing of the blade edge is, of course, time consuming and also represents downtime for the equipment. h
Hard facing or the application of hard material to the lower working side of such a blade edge has been considered and attempted, but the application of such material as by spraying or the like has heretofore been unsuccessful because deposits applied in this manner are relatively thin and fragile, and, furthermore, tend to crack because a grader blade edge will naturally flex somewhat in use and may even be bent upon striking an obstruction such as a large stone.
The present invention is concerned with the forming of a .grader -blade edge by slotting the lower edge and inserting blocks of a hard metal carbide, such a tungsten carbide, in the slot and brazing the blocks in place. It has been found that, when blocks of this nature are placed in the lower edge of the grader blade edge in the proper manner, greatly increased life of the blade edge is obtained so that a considerable overall economy is realized even though blade edges edged in this manner are substantially more expensive than the best steel blade edges.
Having the foregoing in mind, the primary objectives y 3,529,677 Patented Sept. 22, 1970 l'Ce of the present invention are to provide a greatly irnproved grader blade edge structure having extremely long life and improved operating characteristics and one which provides for a substantial economy to the users of such blade edges.
The objectives referred to above as well as still other objectives and advantages of the present invention will become more apparent upon reference to the following detailed specification taken in connection with the accompanying drawings in which:
FIG, l is a vertical sectional view of a grader blade constructed according to the present invention and showing a portion of the support member therefor and the detachable edge portion of the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a view looking in at the -lower edge of the grader blade edge as indicated by arrow II on FIG. l;
F-IG. 3 is a fragmentary cross sectional view indicated by line lII-III on FIG. 2 showing how braze material may be disposed between adjacent ones of the hard blocks in the lower edge of the blade edge;
FIG. 4 is a perspective view of a typical block of hard material for mounting in the slot of the lower edge of the blade edge; and
FIG. 5 shows how the blade edge of the present invention may be made in short sections and bolted to the support member in end to end relation.
Referring to FIG. l, 10 indicates a grader blade cornprising a support member and a blade edge. These support members may be up to 18 feet long and are supported on a power vehicle so that the length of the support member is, generally, parallel to the surface being Worked and so the support member can be raised and lowered relative to the said surface and tilted relative to the surface in the fore and aft direction and also in the lateral direction.
The lower end of support member 10 usually has an inclined offset 12 and a straight terminal portion 14. The grader blade edge, generally indicated at 16, consists of a steel body 18 having its upper end shaped to conform to the contour of inclined portion 12 and terminal portion 14 of the support member in the forward side of the support member. Bolts 20 detachably secure the bladge edge to the support member. These bolts are general-ly in the form of plow bolts so that the heads are substantially flush with the working side of lthe blade and thus offer substantially no obstruction to the sliding of material over the face of the blade edge.
The body 18 of the blade edge has a slot 22 milled therein along the lower edge and disposed in slot 22 are blocks 24 of hard material. A cemented metal carbide, such as tungsten carbide of a tough grade, has been found suitable for this purpose. A layer of brazing material 26 bonds the blocks 24 into the groove 22.
As will be seen in FIG. 2, there are a plurality of the blocks 26 arranged in end to end relation in the groove 22. When the blocks are placed in the groove, it has been found important to space them slightly from each other on the order of from about 0.010 to 0.020 inch. The spacing is indicated at 28 in FIG. 2 and is important for the reason that the coefficient of thermal expansion of steel differs from that of the carbide blocks and, if the space referred to at 28 is not provided between each adjacent pair of the blocks, the blade edge will bend as it cools down after the brazing operation. It has been found, however, by leaving the space referred at 28 that it is possible to carry out the brazing operation and have the blade edges come out substantially straight along the lower working edge thereof.
As will be seen in FIG. 3, the brazing material flows upwardly between adjacent ones of the blocks to fform shims, as indicated at 30, and may more or less completely till the space between adjacent blocks although this is not necessary because the unfilled open space will produce no disadvantageous results.
A particularly important aspect of the present invention is in the mounting of the blocks 24 in the lower edge of the blade edge as shown at FIG. l wherein it will be seen that the blocks are inclined so that the vertical central axis of each block makes an angle A with the central axis of the lower edge of the blade edge. This angle is such that the lower edge of each block 24 is nearer the front face of the blade edge than the upper edge thereof. It has been found that when angle A is about 5 degrees the most satisfactory results are obtained. If angle A is much less than 5 degrees the steel in front of the carbide blocks abrades away quite rapidly and leaves the blocks supported in the steel only by the brazing material at the upper ends of the blocks and along the back sides of the blocks. Blocks supported in this manner can be knocked out of the blade thereby detracting from its efficiency and exposing the blade so that it will wear rapidly where the block has been removed therefrom.
If, on the other hand, angle A exceeds 5 degrees by a substantial amount, the steel will commerce to wear away at the lower forward edge of the blocks and the blocks will then have a sort of hook effect on the material being worked by the blade and increased power will be required to drive the blade and increased abrasion will occur where the steel meets the forward side of the blocks. Tests and experimentation have shown that angle A should be between about 31/2 and 61/2 degrees for the best results with 5 degrees appearing to be optimum angle.
Blade edges having the carbide blocks in the lower edge according to this invention may last from to 20 times as long as conventional 'blade edges made of the best commercially available steel and throughout their useful life will remain substantially straight along their lower working edges so that superior results, particularly when fine grading is required, is obtainable throughout the life of a carbide edged blade edge over the best steel blades.
Due to the fact that the cutting edge remains relatively sharp, it has been found by test and experimentation that a grader blade having a carbide edged blade edge according to the present invention requires less downwardly direct pressure on the blade for a given work operation and less power to push the blade in the forward direction. This comes about because, whereas a steel blade will become quite blunt and rounded, a carbide edged blade edge retains a relatively sharp forward corner, and thus can operate under reduced power. In connection with the reduced power required, it has been found that the tilting of the carbide insert in the blade edge at the angle reerred to is of merit because if this angle becomes too great, say, as much as ten degrees, the power requirements for operating the blade will increase.
Due to the extremely long life of the working edge of a blade edge having carbide inserts in accordance with the present invention, it is possible to make the blade edge narrower than ordinary steel blade edges, up to about 2 inches narrower, and this makes the blade edge according to the present invention somewhat stiffer than a conventional steel blade edge and, therefore, less subject to being damaged in use as by bending.
At the same time, even with less total amount of steel, blade edges according to the present invention can be, and usually are, made somewhat thicker in the front to fback direction than conventional steel blade edges and this imparts increased stiffness and longer life to the blade edge and also provides the solid support necessary for the carbide blocks to permit them to be used to the best advantage.
With respect to the increased thickness of the blade edges `which impart increased stiffness thereto, the entire blade edge is more rigid than usual steel edges and this rigidity is important for protecting the carbide inserts,
The Iblade is less apt to bend when made thicker and, thus, disturbances of the brazed joints and of the carbide is prevented. Still further, there is less chance for a thick blade to chatter than a thin blade, and this is of importance because chattering or vibration of a blade will tend to chip or split the carbide blocks.
Long blade edges are made in shorter sections of different length which can be combined in different groupings to give several standard total blade edge lengths. Further, when the blade edges are made up of sections, the sections can be shifted around as the blade edge wears and thereby the maximum useful life obtained. FIG. 5 shows standard sections of 3, 4 and 5 foot lengths from which can be made blade edges of several standard lengths.
The sectioning of the blade edge is important because if the blade edge were to be made full length, flexing thereof in use would tend to break the carbide blocks loose. The short sections are more rigid and the long blade, instead of flexing along its full length, tends to ilex bodily at the joints so the support member takes the bending instead of the carbide edged blade edge.
What is claimed is:
1. In combination, a grader including a blade, a cutting edge member for said blade comprising: an elongated steel bar having substantially parallel front and back sides and an upper edge and a lower working edge, said bar having means for connection thereof to said blade with said working edge of the bar located at a lower level than the lower edge of the said blade and thereby exposed, a straight groove formed in and extending along the eX- posed working edge of said bar and having a pair of opposed parallel planar side walls and a planar bottom wall, and blocks of a hard wear-resistant cemented metal carbide mounted in said groove in closely spaced side-byside relation and bonded to the said side and lbottom walls of said groove and to each other and projecting beyond the mouth of the groove to form a highly wear-resistant region in the said working edge of said bar, said blocks having planar bottom walls parallel to the said bottom wall of said groove and planar front and back Walls parallel to the said side walls of said groove and planar side walls parallel to each other and perpendicular to said front and back walls.
2. A cutting edge member according to claim 1 in which said groove when viewed from the end of the bar is inclined to the longitudinal central plane of said bar adjacent said working edge in a direction such that the front walls of said blocks and the front side of said bar converge in a direction toward the working edge of said bar.
3. A cutting edge member according to claim 1 in which said blocks are connected to the walls of the groove and to each other by braze material.
4. A cutting edge member according to claim 3 in which adjacent side walls of adjacent blocks are spaced apart in the direction of the length of said groove a distance on the order of from about 0.010 to about 0.025 inch.
5. A cutting edge member according to claim 4 in which said cemented metal carbide is cemented tungsten carbide.
6. A cutting edge member according to claim 5 in which the spacing between said blocks is obtained by shims of braze material about as thick as the desired spacing and inserted therebetween prior to the brazing operation.
7. The grader of claim 1 in which there is a plurality of said cutting edge members connected to said blade near the said lower edge thereof in end-to-end relation and extending downwardly from said lower edge, said cutting edge members being formed to selected different basic lengths whereby cutting edges can be provided for a variety of lengths of blades from a few basic lengths of said cutting edge members.
8. A cutting edge member according to claim 7 in 2,138,150 11/ 1938 Flynn et al. 172-767 X which said blade is thinner and more easily exed than 2,549,088 4/1951 Hettelsater et al. 172-747 X said edge members whereby the junctures of said edge 2,778,129 1/ 1957 Fryer 37-141 members form the principal region in which the combina- 3,239,275 3/1966 Belugou 299- 79 tion of the blade and the plurality of edge members flexes 5 3,286,379 11/ 1966 Benetti 172-747 X when a working load is imposed thereon.
ROBERT E. BAGWILL, Primary Examiner References Cmd A. E. KOPECKI, Assistant Examiner UNITED STATES PATENTS 1,922,917 s/1933 Russell et al 172-747 10 U-SC1XR 2,033,594 3/1936 Stoody. 172-747g37-141
Patent Citations
Referenced by
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Lust, Caution at London Film Festival Gallery
Oscar-winning director Ang Lee attended the 51st London Film Festival on Saturday (October 20, 2007) to promote his latest film, Lust, Caution, a provocative and sexually explicit new thriller. The film's co-star, Eileen Chang, was also in attendance, as was producer James Schamus.
Roll your mouse over the left and right-hand sides of the image and then click to view more pictures.
2 of 5
Read our review of Lust, Caution or our interviews with writer-director b>Ang Lee or stars Tony Leung and Tang Wei
Recent Galleries:
- Sexiest actors of 2014 - Photo Gallery
- Sexiest actresses of 2014 - Photo Gallery
- Night At The Museum 3: Secret Of The Tomb Photo Gallery
- The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 1 - London Photo Call Gallery
- Serena (Jennifer Lawrence/Bradley Cooper) - Photo Gallery
- Fury (Brad Pitt/Logan Lerman) - Photo Gallery
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- Tak3n (Liam Neeson) - First-look Photo Gallery
- Interstellar (Matthew McConaughey/Anne Hathaway) Photo Gallery 1
- Dracula Untold stars visit British Library's Terror and Wonder: The Gothic Imagination exhibition - in photos


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International Longshoremen's Association President Harold Daggett said he plans an aggressive effort to transform the union into a "New ILA" that will cultivate closer links with other unions in the U.S. and abroad.
Daggett said a new steering committee will re-evaluate the ILA's relationship with the AFL-CIO and its maritime and transportation trades departments "to make certain we are equal partners among unions as members of these labor organizations."
With the completion this month of negotiations on a Maine-to-Texas master contract for dockworkers, Daggett said the ILA will turn its attention to bolstering its finances, reviewing the union's relationships with other labor organizations, and expanding organizing efforts.
Daggett said the ILA steering committee will evaluate the union's strengths and weaknesses, including its structure, finances, its political and public affairs agendas and its affiliations with other labor and maritime organizations.
"This will be the new ILA," Daggett said in a statement. "Out of our difficult negotiations on a new master contract, the ILA has come to understand how important it is for us to be strong in our structure, strong in our finances, and strong to face the multitude of challenges that we'll face in the future. Our ILA steering committee will examine ways to get us there."
Daggett said the ILA spent heavily on research, travel and other costs during its protracted negotiations with United States Maritime Alliance on an East and Gulf Coast dockworker contract that's awaiting an April 9 ratification vote.
"With the protections and improvements we achieved in this new master contract, the investment was well spent," Daggett said. "Now we have to stay ahead of our management counterparts at USMX when it comes to knowledge about our industry."
Complete coverage of ILA-USMX negotiations
Daggett said the steering committee will seek to strengthen ILA organizing efforts. He said the union sees opportunities in the Caribbean and Central America as well as on the East and Gulf coasts.
"Our organizing mission will go global," Daggett said. "We will really make our union an international one like we've never seen before."
The ILA president's announcement of the union's planned steering committee emphasized the cultivation of closer relationships with other labor organizations.
The ILA and International Longshore and Warehouse Union have discussed forming a maritime labor alliance with other unions to combat incursions on their traditional jurisdiction.
The ILA and ILWU have been embroiled in several jurisdictional disputes in recent years, and longshore unions have been dissatisfied with the AFL-CIO's response.
Daggett said the ILA was aided in its just-completed contract negotiations by the International Transport Federation, the global organization with which the ILA has been affiliated for decades, and the International Dockers Council, which the ILA joined last year.
Contact Joseph Bonney at firstname.lastname@example.com and follow him at twitter.com/JosephBonney.


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12/16/14 – The National Weather Service in Flagstaff has issued a winter weather advisory for snow which is in effect from 11 PM this evening to 11 PM Wednesday. Snow will begin after midnight with the heaviest snowfall from late morning through early evening.
Show Low = 3 to 6 inches
Pinetop-Lakeside = 2 to 4 inches
Alpine = 2 to 4 inches
Forest Lakes = 3 to 5 inches
Heber-Overgaard = 1 to 3 inches
Travel will be most difficult early Wednesday morning and again late Wednesday afternoon and evening due to either low visibility and snow accumulation on roadways. To watch a quick video on preparing for winter storms click here.


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Gateway Lodge is located on the free bus route with stunning views of Keystone Mountain. These four bedroom Gateway condominiums provides two different levels of living area and sleeps 10-15 people (depending on unit). When you walk into the entrance you will be greeted with tall vaulted ceilings and large bay windows in the living room, dining area and fully equipped kitchen. Bedding varies per condo and amenities that make this property a popular choice is the washer and dryer in the unit, ski storage located on the first floor, indoor heated pool and hot tub, fitness facility, internet access, underground heated parking and shuttle access outside your door. The Gateway is the ideal Keystone vacation rental as the building provides a sports bar restaurant, day spa, mini grocery and liquor store and ski rentals all right at your fingertips.
Hot Tub
Restaurant / Bar
250-500 yards to lifts
On shuttle route to lifts
Keystone250-500 yards to liftsOn shuttle route to lifts
Gateway LodgeKeystone
250-500 yards to liftsOn shuttle route to lifts
Tiendas de alquiler
- Rentskis.com/Specialty Sports (Keystone)
- Rentskis.com/Specialty Sports (Keystone)
- Rentskis.com/Specialty Sports (Keystone)
- Blue River Bistro
- Briar Rose Chophouse & Saloon
- Hearthstone Restaurant
- Mi Casa Mexican Restaurant
- Modis
- The Dredge Restaurant
- The Salt Creek Steakhouse
- South Ridge Seafood
- Taddeos
- Alpenglow Stube
- Bighorn Steakhouse
- Black Bear Grill
- Der Fondue Chessel
- Keystone Ranch Restaurant
- Ski Tip Lodge
- Summit House
- Ember
- The Warming Hut
- 10 Mile Station - Breckenridge - Vail Resorts
Políticas tales como la cancelación varían según el hotel . Con preguntas sobre las políticas de esta propiedad, póngase en contacto con un Mountain Vacation Specialist.


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Dr. Isaac AsimovSubmitted by myajace on Wed, 04/18/2012 - 01:14
Predicts the Internet of today, 20 years ago. The Internet has been VERY important to spreading the message of freedom throughout the world. Weird listening to these guys talk about the internet before it was even around. "It's through this machine, for the first time we'll be able to have a one to one relationship between information source and information consumer"...I translate that into NO MORE MSM!! :-}
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Visionary on all the sci fi stuff
but as near as I can tell he was a utopian (why do you think he supports public schools).
I would actually love to see a sci fi that wasnt utopian in nature besides star wars (Any suggestions). The problem is that all the big publishing companies and movie companies like the utopian idea because they think that if people listen to them and do what they say everything will be wonderful. But the truth is utopia is tyranny, and is wonderful for the king on top but not so great for everyone else. .
I love his work, but there is some scary stuff in his writings
He escaped Communism from the Soviet Union, but not all of its ideals. A lot of his books tie together (the Robot and Foundation Series link up near the end). That and the last story of I, Robot (I forgot the name of that short story), all have our society moving to having hyper-intelligent robots in charge of all human affairs, bound by the three laws (and ultimately the 4th law called the Zeroth Law). The Zeroth Law was, "A robot may not harm humanity, or, by inaction, allow humanity to come to harm." Pretty slippery slope with that law. I have read all of the Robot and Foundation Series' and that really creeped me out at the end of it all. At first, when I was young, it gave me a sense of safety and security; making me think this was a valid future for us to strive to. Not anymore, of course.
Anyway, you kind of get a sense of Asimov's desire for authoritarianism, but based on his experiences in the Soviet Union, he shifts it to robots instead of humans. I'm sure the world run by robots would be better than the one run by a communist oligarchy, but I think we all agree that the free market / republic / individual rights model are what we desire.
Anyway, he is a great author with some fantastic writings, but it is hard to ignore the effect all of that Soviet propaganda had on his mind.
With liberty and justice for all...who can afford it.
as a friend of his
who talked with him several times, I think u are wrong. He was questioning laws not advocating following them.
I'll take your word for it
but I'm just stating the sense that I get from the novels. I still love his work and re-read some of his novels from time to time.
With liberty and justice for all...who can afford it.
Shoot out for
Bill Moyers! I think he's great. We need more like him! Thanks to the OP for sharing!
If ye love wealth better than liberty, the tranquility of servitude than the animated contest of freedom — go home from us in peace. We ask not your counsels or arms. Crouch down and lick the hands which feed you. May your chains sit lightly upon you, and
what awaits us, and what is blocking us:
Predictions in due Time...
"Let it not be said that no one cared, that no one objected once it's realized that our liberties and wealth are in jeopardy." - Dr. Ronald Ernest Paul
He wrote
more educational books than fiction.
He also coined the term "positronic" and came up with the "3 laws of robotics".
Truly one of the greats of the last century.
Great mind
Great humanist.
In the 90's he was one of my role-models.
LL on Twitter: http://twitter.com/LibertyPoet
sometimes LL can suck & sometimes LL rocks!
Love won! Deliverance from Tyranny is on the way! Col. 2:13-15
Issac Asimov Foundation.
I thought of Hober Mallow and the Traders Guild when I heard Dr. Paul talking about a foreign policy of freedom. "Be friends with people, trade with them."
If trade is to their advantage and war kills such advantage, war loses.
Free includes debt-free!
isaac asimov
i noticed the same thing when reading foundation. it also talked about how the most dangerous weapons are the ones that can also be used against you.
this guy's great
(coined the term "robotics"!)
One of my favorite short writings from him:
The Relativity of Wrong
A goofy-ish one:
"You underestimate the character of man." | "So be off now, and set about it." | Up for a game?
I don't even know how I
ran across the video but it was awesome, and I had never heard the guy. I just read the short writing you posted. Awesome! I don't know why but I think my favorite line was: "Having exact answers, and having absolute rights and wrongs, minimizes the necessity of thinking"..Going to read the other now :-) Thanks
De criminalize Liberty!
you should read EVERYTHING he wrote. :) he's amazing. genius.


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text: ESPN Feed: jeff macgregor http://assets.espn.go.com/i/tvlistings/tv_espn_original.gif ESPN en-us 10 ESPN Inc. http://espn.go.com/ Copyright 2010 ESPN Inc. As inspiring as Diana Nyad's swim from Cuba to Key West may have been for baby boomers, the symbols and limits and pigeonholes of age remain weirdly fixed in American culture. Or at least in the minds and blogs and daily columns of our zombie sporting press.]]> September 06, 2013 07:04:53 PDT I've never understood the appeal of fantasy sports. They're not really sports fantasies, after all; they're business fantasies. Management fantasies. And a fantasy of office work, even front-office work, never made much sense to me.]]> August 30, 2013 05:27:30 PDT Detroit is bust. Detroit is an idea. The city will live on in memories of the 1968 World Series, Gordie Howe and automobiles. Bankruptcy, or no, the Red Wings, Tigers, Lions and Pistons will play on.]]> July 31, 2013 10:43:51 PDT Both Chris Davis and Chris Froome are presumed guilty by lazy implication and cynical inference. Again and again we find cheaters of every kind succeeding in every sport. But a free society rests on the principles of due process and the presumption of innocence.]]> July 23, 2013 07:54:42 PDT Is pain a means to grace? To clarity? Is it an "instrument for perfecting" ourselves? Where's the line between the instructive and the destructive? What are sports meant to teach?]]> April 26, 2013 06:25:03 PDT In next week's news, the Oscars become a national holiday, Manti Te'o gets clocked again, and Kobe and Dwight try to work it out, Jeff MacGregor writes.]]> February 26, 2013 09:19:52 PST While you weren't looking, the NFL became our national metaphor for everything. From Sandy Hook to Camp Courage, the measure of America is football.]]> February 04, 2013 06:33:30 PST With the Super Bowl rising this week until it blots out the sun, maybe it's worth asking how and how much technology has changed the way we watch and think of sports.]]> January 28, 2013 08:53:09 PST On the day of Robert Griffin III's knee surgery, we're reminded that football players will do what football players do -- and that football coaches behave as football coaches. As do football owners and writers.]]> January 09, 2013 08:32:18 PST Trying to understand tragic deaths and failing. Considering the nature of violence and human nature. About guilt and complicity. Thinking, in the wake of Jovan and Kasandra, how we struggle with the truth of things.]]> December 06, 2012 08:21:02 PST Why do we insistently mythologize bad leadership and poor decision-making? Why do we treat all coaches with the same mystical regard we treat the best coaches?]]> November 29, 2012 10:06:34 PST On my way to the airport, I think of them flying home in the middle of the night. San Francisco in St. Louis, New York in Detroit, everyone everywhere and back again all at once on their way somewhere else.]]> October 17, 2012 08:19:35 PDT Football is the last Great Circus and the last of our epic American fables. To say otherwise is dishonest.]]> October 10, 2012 13:19:51 PDT In the end, the resolution between the NFL and officials came down to money. Not the change owners might have saved on pension costs, but the billions rung up by bookies from Las Vegas to Sri Lanka.]]> September 26, 2012 18:03:26 PDT In which we return yet again to the work of Samuel Beckett in the interest of clarifying American football. A country road. A tree. Evening. ...]]> September 19, 2012 18:07:25 PDT


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Eric Shaw
Eric Shaw is an American television writer and a former writer for SpongeBob SquarePants,[1] a popular television show on Nickelodeon. Originally from Jericho, NY, he attended Jericho High School and graduated from the Columbia University School of General Studies.[2] He has been an animation writer since 2003 and has also written for Skunk Fu, Krypto the Superdog, Sid the Science Kid, My Friends Tigger and Pooh and many other animated hit shows. He is known for writing on SpongeBob SquarePants seasons five and six. As a staff writer, Eric has written for more than 50 SpongeBob episodes.[3][4] In 2007, Eric served as the President of the International Jury at the prestigious Cartoons on the Bay Animation Festival, Salerno, Italy.[5] Eric recently served as Head Writer on PBS' Emmy-Award winning animated series WordGirl starring Tom Kenny, Maria Bamford, Patton Oswalt, Jeffrey Tambor, and others. Eric ran the writing on Season 5 (26 episodes), from Soup2Nuts' Watertown, Mass studio, and in 2013, he won an Emmy Award for Outstanding Writing in Animation at the 40th Annual Creative Arts Daytime Emmy Awards on June 14.[6]
SpongeBob episodes[edit]
- Blackened Sponge
- Krabby Road
- Sun Bleached
- Krusty Krushers
- The Splinter
- Not Normal
- Gone
- House Fancy
- The Battle of Bikini Bottom
- Mermaid Man vs. SpongeBob
- The Krusty Plate
- Krabs a la Mode
- ^ http://www.awn.com/articles/production/festival-mississippi-shape-and-color-red-stick
- ^ http://gs.columbia.edu/notable-alumni
- ^ http://www.film.com/celebrities/eric-shaw/19803467
- ^ http://www.cct.lsu.edu/events/talks/387
- ^ "Cartoons on the Bay – A Film Festival World profile". Film Festival World. Retrieved December 5, 2011.
- ^ http://www.denverpost.com/ci_23478391/coloradan-wins-emmy-writing-work-pbs-series-wordgirl
- Eric Shaw at the Internet Movie Database


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You've read it, heard it, and some of you live it… Content is King! We've written about the importance of content and the marketing tactic called content marketing extensively.
That said, no one knows content like Ann Handley. A couple of years ago, while on vacation, I read her book ContentRules! every day on the beach. I could not put it down.
This book, co-written with CC Chapman, is one of the best (if not the best) book out there on content marketing.
Not only is it a great content marketing resource, but I think it is a great marketing book in general. Combine this with all of the great work she does as Cheif Content Officer for MarketingProfs and Ann is THE go to resource for content marketing!
She is also one of the nicest and most accessible marketing rockstars I know. I hope you enjoy this interview as much as I did…
I love your book Content Rules! I still think it holds its own as one of the most important content marketing books around. What would you say are some of the most significant changes in content marketing since you and CC Chapman put the book out?
First, thank you. That means a lot to me.
We wrote the book as an evergreen guide to content. While there are some references that might need updating in the next edition, we set out to create a book that would maintain its relevance and import, even in our rapidly evolving social world!
So how have things changed? Most brands seem to embrace the notion that companies are media companies now. So the issues now are less about "why content" and more about "how content":
I see this a lot internationally. Many international audiences I've spoken to leapfrog right over the why and join the movement in the middle, at execution. I wrote about this after a recent trip to Denmark, and I've've seen it other places as well.
MarketingProfs has some of the best writers out there. You guys continually put out the most useful content on marketing in today's digital world. What do you look for in a writer for your staff? What are the qualities of a "good blogger?"
Thank you!
MarketingProfs doesn't actually have any full-time staff writers (although many people on our staff do write for the site, they aren't dedicated to creating content).
We do have editors and programmers, though, whose job is to find the best talent and wrangle them into writing, speaking and producing content for us.
You know that expression, "Those who can't do, teach…?") I think that's totally wrong. The best content creators for MarketingProfs (and for any quality site, I suppose) are like the best teachers:
They know the material so well and are so excited by it that they can relay it to an audience with necessary clarity and passion.
I also think that the best content creators have good editors. I know that sounds obvious, but it's harder to find good writers than you think. Behind the scenes, a good editor adds a lot to process.
In my experience, there are two kinds of people: Those who think they can write, and those who think they can't. And very often, both are wrong. A good editor teases the best out of so-called writers and non-writers alike.
You were one of the co-founders at ClickZ back in the golden age of the internet (97-00). Do you think we're doing this Internet thing better today than we were before the dot bust? Or are we making the same mistakes?
Whoa that's a big question.
Much of that speculative investing during the dot-com era nonetheless created the vertebrae of today's Internet.
Without that frenzy…
I suppose your guess is as good as mine. But I think the so-called mistakes were part of the innovation process, in other words. And all I really know is that there's nowhere I'd rather be working than where I am today.
One of the things missing back in those years was mobile. How do you think mobile has changed content marketing?
Mobile and social combined has been a tremendous agent of change for content marketing — and for business in general, of course.
Clearly, that means that businesses need to ensure their content is accessible on mobile platforms. And we have an opportunity to tell our stories on interesting new mobile platforms like Vine and Instagram.
But it also means that we need to think through some bigger questions that all of us are only now getting our heads around.
When we create content online, we tend to imagine our customers accessing it via a laptop or a desktop. But increasingly that's not the case. They are searching for us on mobile devices in the middle of a liquor store, or while they are fixing a plumbing issue, or in an airport, or whatever they might be.
So the questions become:
I use a quote you gave me a while back in all of my seminars on content. You said the most important takeaway from your book was to always ask "What marketing will my customer THANK me for?" I think this is brilliant as is but care to elaborate?
That quote isn't actually in the book: It's something I've thought a lot about after the book came out. I think the key here is empathy.
Brands still tend to create company-centric content: We still default to talking about ourselves: What we do; what we offer.
Your customers, meanwhile, don't want to talk about you. They want to talk about themselves. So the key is to create content that isn't based on what you do; rather, what you do for others.
That's a subtle shift, but a huge one. Innovative content always looks at things from a viewpoint of empathy:
And the bonus… have you ever listened to your book recorded in another language? I was thinking it would be good to listen to in German while running or working out.
I'm not sure Content Rules is recorded in another language! It's been translated into 9… but (as far as I know), that's print, not audio.
But now I'm curious… I'd love to hear it in any language, truly. But perhaps especially Czech, because I want to go to there (as Tina Fey would say).
I think it is also worth posting Ann's bio for some more of Ann's greatness…
Ann Handley speaks and writes about how you can rethink the way your business markets. Cited in Forbes as the most influential woman in Social Media and recognized by ForbesWoman as one of the top 20 women bloggers, Ann Handley is the Chief Content Officer of MarketingProfs, a training and education company with the largest community of marketers in its category.
She is a monthly columnist for Entrepreneur magazine, a member of the LinkedIn Influencer program , and the co-author of the best-selling book on content marketing, Content Rules: How to Create Killer Blogs, Podcasts, Videos, Ebooks, Webinars (and More) That Engage Customers and Ignite Your Business (Wiley, originally published 2011. Paperback 2012.)
The book has been translated into nine languages, including Turkish, Chinese, Japanese, Korean, Italian, Portuguese. She currently has close to 200,000 followers on Twitter and writes about content, marketing and life at the highly entertaining AnnHandley.com.
A pioneer in digital marketing, Ann is the co-founder of ClickZ.com, which was one of the first sources of interactive marketing news and commentary. She started her career as a business journalist and editor.
Ann is based in Boston, Massachusetts.
Great takes by Ann Handley I must remark. She definitely has provided new insights concerning content as would be applied to marketing. The follow up questions bring to the fore the importance of evergreen content.
In the content syndication website for Internet marketers - kingged.com , this post was 'kingged' even as the above comment was left.
Sunday - kingged.com contributor


text:
Gift Premium Subscription To BENDJOSEPH
Join Date:03-17-2007
Last Activity:11-23-2007 5:12 PM
Posted in thread: Flat beer again on 11-23-2007 at 11:55 PM
I have been waiting two weeks for my 12 oz bottles. My caps are brand new. I will try the corn
sugar with my next batch.
Posted in thread: Flat beer again on 11-23-2007 at 11:07 PM
My pass three batches have been flat. I am using C-brite as a cleaner and Cooper drops for
priming. I can not firgure out what I am doing wrong.I am triple rinsing my bottles to make
sure they don't h...
Posted in thread: I am begining to like uncarbonated beer on 10-13-2007 at 08:22 PM
My Cooper drops have failed again. However I am begining to enjoy the uncarbonated beer. Does
anyone else like it?
Posted in thread: Flat again!! on 05-12-2007 at 10:55 PM
I am using the Cooper's drops. The 12 oz were fine at 60 degrees.
Posted in thread: Flat again!! on 05-12-2007 at 10:33 PM
The bottles are brand new. The washers are the one's that came with them. My local brew store
said they should not be the problem. They were at a lost at why they were flat.Can i carb them
some how? I...
Posted in thread: Flat again!! on 05-12-2007 at 10:14 PM
My one liter bottles are flat again. The last batch i let carb for a week, they were flat. This
batch I let carb and age at 60 degrees for 8 weeks and then one week at 35 degrees. They are
flat also.W...
Posted in thread: Santizing in the dish washer on 05-09-2007 at 01:13 AM
Just the bottles.
Posted in thread: Santizing in the dish washer on 05-09-2007 at 12:54 AM
How can I santizie in the dishwasher?
Posted in thread: C-Brite a sanitizer on 04-20-2007 at 12:40 AM
Is C-Brite a sanitizer? Or justa cleanser?
Posted in thread: How long can you age? on 04-03-2007 at 11:00 PM
It's in bottle's. So, I should be fine. I was going to let it sit till Aug.


text:
So I'm not quite sure how this product works. Can Someone please explain more elaborately?
- Asked by Emily S
- 01-Nov-2009
Elgato eyeTV
Product No Longer Available
1 Answer from the Community
This is basically a "Set Top Box" for your computer.
You plug in your aerial into the EYETV and then connect EYETV to your mac via USB.
This unit will encode the TV signals for your macintosh to take the load of your computer's processors (meaning, not slowing your computer down).
You can also record TV straight to your mac :)
This also comes with a breakout cable so you can connect an external device such as VCR player, PS3, XBOX 360 or Video Camera etc.
It'll also let you convert your recorded TV sessions for you iPhone or iPod or Apple TV.
Hope this helps! :)
- Answered by Sam W from Newcastle
- 02-May-2010


text:
Israel Hernandez: One Year Later, Still No Answers
By Michael E. Miller
Five Reasons Miami Heat Fans Deserve Respect
By Ryan Yousefi
FL Doctors Comes Out Against Medical Marijuana
By Kyle Munzenrieder
All Aboard Florida New Images of Miami Station
By Sabrina Rodriguez
Miami VA Director Responds To Neglect Scandal
By Michael E. Miller
Miami artist AholSniffsGlue Sues American Eagle
By Carlos Suarez De Jesus
2 Live Crew's Legal Fight Is Still Vital 25 Years Later
By Luther Campbell
Report: 90 Percent of Condo Buyers Are Foreigners
By Kyle Munzenrieder
On September 20, former North Miami Beach Mayor Myron Rosner did the perp walk. His crime: allegedly accepting thousands in free campaign ads on bus benches from a company whose owner told prosecutors that the mayor had pressured him with promises to renew his contract.
Rosner is in big trouble, with three felonies and a handful of misdemeanors awaiting trial — but he might not be the only politico to fall over bus bench ads.
North Miami Mayor Andre Pierre is facing virtually identical allegations in an open complaint filed with the Florida Elections Commission.
Carol Keys, a North Miami attorney who lost a mayoral race to Pierre last year, confirms to Riptide that she filed the complaint last October alleging that Pierre violated virtually the same rules as Rosner.
A spokeswoman for the FEC says the group's policy forbids discussing complaints, but sources tell Riptide that an investigation into Keys's allegations is open. Pierre didn't respond to a message left with a spokeswoman or an email seeking comment.
Here's the gist of Keys's beef: In late 2010, Pierre plastered at least 29 North Miami bus benches with "Happy Holidays" ads that featured his smiling face, without reporting any campaign cash spent on the ads.
Then, in February, most of the benches switched to Pierre campaign ads; he reported spending only $1,600 on those, Keys claims, even though the benches should cost around $300 each.
The company that made the ads, Martin Outdoor Media, is the same firm prosecutors say Rosner pressured into giving him virtually the same "Happy Holidays" ads and campaign ads on his city's bus benches. (Scott Martin, the company's owner, didn't return Riptide's call.)
So, will prosecutors throw the book at Pierre as they did at Rosner? It might depend on what Scott Martin tells them; Rosner's most serious charges aren't for not failing to report his free ads, but for allegedly using his position to pressure Martin into the gifts.
Did Pierre throw his weight around too? If so, we might have another mayoral mug shot to look forward to.
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text:
Views from Dolna Banya pt.3 - Ostrich fun
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dolna_Banya http://www.ostrichfun.com/This photo was shot on film. Taken by adash with a Pentax MZ-30 loaded with Kodak Elitechrome EBX film (available in our Online Shop) in Dolna Banya, Bulgaria. These tags describe this photo: dolna banya, долна баня, dolna, banya, farm, ostrich, ostrich farm, xpro, x-pro, cross process, cross, process, cross-process, diy, home, lab, rat, lab rat, and darkroom. Date: 2012-07-17. Time: Morning. This photo can also be found in the album Dolna Banya pt.3 - Ostrich fun.
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Group Discussions
Blue Label
Group admin needed/welcome
8 years ago| Blue Label
If your're an out going and talkative type and also happen to really enjoy the topic of consciousness you might be a candidate for being an administrator of this group. When you decide you want to try to be an admin here then post in this thread. We'll see what happens after that.
admin needed
7 years ago
I would be glad to help you out with this group.� I think I can come up with enough questions and info to help bring it more regular action.� I� enjoy reading the intelligent discussions here on Care2.
God Bless,


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Latest News
- CBS News: Pregnant killer whale J-32 was starving, necropsy reveals Tuesday, 16 December 2014 - Pregnant killer whale J-32 was starving, necropsy reveals CBS News, December 15, 2014 Death of killer whale J-32 troubling, say scientists Questions remain after a necropsy revealed a young female orca in the endangered southern resident population was malnourished when she died before giving... Read more...
- High Country News: The great salmon compromise Wednesday, 10 December 2014 - High Country News: The great salmon compromise The Columbia Basin Fish Accords have funded $1 billion worth of habitat restoration projects, but can they replace free-flowing rivers? December 8, 2014 Ben Goldfarb On an ice-blue afternoon in mid-May, I met Kat Brigham in a mall café on the Oregon... Read more...
- Guest Opinion: Aging infrastructure and scarce dollars means tough decisions Monday, 08 December 2014 - Tri-City Herald Guest Opinion - In Focus: Aging infrastructure and scarce dollars means tough decisions for the Northwest By Norm Ritchie Sunday - December 7, 2014 The Northwest's aging infrastructure hit the headlines in 2014. First came discovery of a massive 65-foot crack in the Columbia... Read more...
- 2014 - The Year in Review Tuesday, 02 December 2014 - "If salmon are running, God knows that all is well in His world…the health of the environment is good if the salmon are around. It is that simple." – former Oregon Governor Tom McCall DONATE ONLINE HERE. SEE DONOR GIFTS AND RAFFLE ITEMS. 2014 - THE YEAR IN REVIEW The late governor was right of... Read more...
- Solutions Table
- Wind and Salmon Connection
- Salmon Mean Business
- One of a Kind
Solutions Table
Western salmon states, fishing businesses, conservation groups and Northwest tribes have been in litigation over federal dams and wild salmon protection in the Columbia Basin for almost two decades. Now is the time for all stakeholders to come together and create a new approach to salmon restoration.
Wind & Salmon Connection
Wild salmon and wind energy work together well in the Northwest, as sustainable resources and job creators. But the Obama administration's present management of our Rivers doesn't reflect this natural partnership. We're working to change that.
Salmon Mean Business
Salmon are a critical part of the northwest economy, supporting a diverse set of industries including fishing, tourism, renewable energy, and outdoor retailers that bring billions to the northwest and create thousands of jobs. A healthy environment means a healthy economy and the threats salmon face threaten us all.
One of a Kind
The wild salmon and steelhead of the Northwest are an incredible story of nature. When dinosaurs roamed the earth, salmon were swimming in our waters. Snake River salmon travel more than 900 miles inland and climb almost 7,000 feet to reach their spawning grounds – making them truly one of a kind.


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Health law coverage may track workplace cost shift
Job-based plans have been shifting costs to employees for some time. In 2009, when Obama took office, 22 percent of workers were in plans with an annual deductible of $1,000 or more for single coverage, according to Kaiser. By this year, the share had nearly doubled, to 38 percent, including 3 out of 5 employees of small companies.
Obama's law largely reflects what's already going on in the marketplace, but Pearson said over time it may accelerate the shift to plans with higher out-of-pocket costs.
Administration officials are pleased with the large number of low-cost options. Health and Human Services Department spokeswoman Joanne Peters said the administration is confident that consumers will be able to compare plans side by side in the new markets and make the right choices for themselves.
Avalere crunched the numbers on premiums filed by insurers in 11 states and Washington, D.C. Kaiser added another 6 states. Both studies included a mix of states running their own insurance markets and ones in which the federal government will take charge.
Under Obama's law, all plans on the new insurance markets must cover the same benefits, including preventive care at no charge to patients. Another similarity is a cap on total out-of-pocket costs at $6,350 for individuals, $12,700 for a family policy.
The main difference between plans is cost-sharing. Bronze plans cover 60 percent of expected medical costs, silver plans will cover 70 percent, gold will cover 80 percent and platinum 90 percent.
Midrange silver plans were considered the benchmark when the law was written more than three years ago. Lawmakers keyed the tax credits to the cost of the second-lowest-cost silver plan in a local area.
People with modest incomes may still come out ahead by sticking with a silver plan instead of going for bronze. That's because additional help with out-of-pocket costs such as copays will only be available to people enrolling in a silver plan.
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Top 10 Musical Moments in Video Games
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Ooo! I'd like to give a shoutout to the Michael Jackson cameo in Space Channel 5 part 2 and Journey the arcade game!
No "Journey Escape" for the Atari 2600? For shame!
Don't forget about Back to the Future for the NES! Before you can drive the DeLorean at the end, you first have to successfully play the (world record holder for fastest ever) "Johnny B. Goode" on guitar at the Enchantment Under the Sea dance, which amounts to aiming your guitar at various types of notes floating toward you. If you don't succeed, the screen displays: "Sorry, Marty, you've got no rhythm!"
I like #2
Omikron - The Nomad Soul was overlooked. David Bowie performs 3 songs in the game plus the theme song. His wife is also a playable character!


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Game Questions & Answers (Q&A) service lets you ask questions about video games for game consoles or PC games. So ask your Farm Tribe HD question for iPad and get answers from real gamers or answer questions and share your insights and experience with the rest of the gaming community.
- Developer: Big Fish Games
- Publisher: Big Fish Games
- Genre: Miscellaneous Puzzle General
- Release Date: Jul 24, 2013
- ESRB: Not Set
Question & Answers
Answer this QuestionAll Questions Ask a Question
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Starfish for collection
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Clean a fire place
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Kyle Pohl pass complete to Zach D'Orazio for 77 yards for a TOUCHDOWN.
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Museo Salvatore Ferragamo
Chiesa di Santa Trìnita
Built in Gothic style and later given a Mannerist facade, this 14th-century church shelters some of the city's finest frescoes,...
Chiesa dei Santissimi Apostoli
Via de' Tornabuoni
Renaissance palaces and the flagship stores of Italian fashion houses border Via de' Tornabuoni, the city's most expensive shopping...
Noir is the new black. Set in a riverside palazzo, the bar's interior lives up to its name. Except for the original baroque fresco...
Our favourite for its simplicity, around since 1973. Sunrise to sunset this brick-vaulted, 13th-century cellar gently buzzes with...
Via de' Tornabuoni 2 · interesting places nearby
Museo Salvatore Ferragamo information
The splendid 13th-century Palazzo Spini-Feroni has been the home of the Ferragamo fashion empire since 1938. Anyone with even the faintest tendency towards shoe addiction or with an interest in the socio-historical context of fashion should not miss the esoteric but oddly compelling shoe museum.