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Natural Resources
Sino-Russian Natural Gas Deal Blow To U.S. Dollar Supremacy?
"The Obama administration is playing down an increasingly warm relationship between its main global rivals, China and Russia, that it may have inadvertently encouraged.
U.S. officials maintain there is nothing to fear from the growing alliance between Moscow and Beijing, even as each throws its weight around in neighboring regions like Ukraine and the South China Sea and at international forums like the United Nations, where on Thursday they double-vetoed the latest in a series of Security Council resolutions on Syria.
Yet when coupled with growing cooperation between Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, in other areas- notably, a new $400 billion natural gas deal and apparent agreement on the crisis in Ukraine- many believe Russia and China may now or may soon represent a powerful new alliance challenging not only the United States, but also the Western democratic tradition that the U.S. has championed globally…"
-Associated Press, May 23, 2014
You may have heard about that $400 billion natural gas deal that was just struck between China and Russia. Or maybe you didn't, as I've noticed the mainstream media hasn't really been talking about it too much. Most of the outlets that did neglected to talk about the potential ramifications for the U.S. dollar.
There were exceptions. From the BBC News website on May 22:
Some papers are also analysing the impact of the deal on the world currency market.
A commentary in the Beijing Youth Daily says the deal will probably encourage more countries to not trade in US dollars if China and Russia decide to switch to clearing payments in Russian roubles and the yuan.
"The world economy and finance will then embark on a process to get rid of the US dollar, and the dominance of the dollar will gradually lose its support. The US will then face more challenges in its ability to control global economics and politics," it says…
From Liam Halligan on The Telegraph (UK) website yesterday:
The real danger, in my view, is rather more abstract — but deadly important nevertheless. If Russia's "pivot to Asia" results in Moscow and Beijing trading oil between them in a currency other than the dollar, that will represent a major change in how the global economy operates and a marked loss of power for the US and its allies.
With the dollar as the world's petrocurrency, it also remains the reserve currency of choice for central banks globally. As such, the US is currently able to borrow with "exorbitant privilege", as it has for decades, simply printing money to pay off foreign creditors.
With China now the world's biggest oil importer and the US increasingly stressing domestic production, the days of dollar-priced energy, and therefore dollar-dominance, look numbered. Beijing has recently struck numerous agreements with major trading partners such as Brazil that bypass the dollar. Moscow and Beijing have also set up rouble-yuan swap facilities that push the greenback out of the picture.
If Russia and China now decide to drop dollar energy pricing totally, America's reserve currency status could unravel fast, seriously undermining the US Treasury market and causing a world of pain for the West. This won't happen tomorrow or next year. It's unlikely even by 2020. But by announcing this deal, Russia and China turned the screw half a twist more…
(Editor's note: Bold added for emphasis)
Then there's this from Max Keiser, an American filmmaker and host of the Keiser Report, a financial show on RT. From The Washington Times website earlier today:
He said the $400 billion, 30-year deal will further the strategic goals of Moscow and Beijing to diminish the status of the U.S. dollar by conducting world trade in critical commodities such as oil and gas using other currencies.
Russia is the world's biggest producer of commodities such as crude oil, gold and titanium. China is the world's biggest consumer of these commodities.
Both countries have chafed for years at having to conduct purchases and sales in dollars, as is customary worldwide. The gas deal announced in Beijing on Wednesday would be the first major commodities contract to be settled in Russian rubles and Chinese yuan rather than dollars.
"This means the U.S. dollar's days as the world reserve currency are numbered," said Mr. Keiser, noting that Russia and China have been investing heavily in gold.
Many analysts question whether Moscow and Beijing can succeed in displacing the dollar as the world's reserve currency. If that happens, however, it likely would usher in a period of global financial instability and force Americans to pay much more for the massive amounts of imported energy, Mr. Keiser said…
(Editor's note: Bold added for emphasis)
According to the Economist Intelligence Unit- the research and analysis division of The Economist Group, the sister company to The Economist newspaper- on May 22, it has been reported payments for the gas will be made in Chinese yuan rather than U.S. dollars.
By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
"China media: Russia gas deal." BBC News. 22 May 2014. (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-27514395). 25 May 2014.
Halligan, Liam. "Russia-China gas deal could ignite a shift in global trading." The Telegraph. 24 May. 2014. (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/liamhalligan/10854595/Russia-China-gas-deal-could-ignite-a-shift-in-global-trading.html). 25 May 2014.
Hill, Patrice. "Russia's Putin gains strategic victory with Chinese natural gas deal." The Washington Times. 25 May 2014. (http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/may/25/russias-putin-gains-strategic-victory-with-chinese/). 25 My 2014.
"The Sino-Russian gas deal." Economist Intelligence Unit. 22 May 2014. (http://www.eiu.com/industry/article/431836627/the-sino-russian-gas-deal/2014-05-22) 25 May 2014.
Jim Rogers: 'This Is The Time To Buy Russia'
Investor, author, and financial commentator Jim Rogers has been bullish on Russia for some time now. In fact, by the time I first blogged about his optimism for the country back in February 2013, he had already invested there.
Despite the recent crisis in the Crimea and subsequent sell-off of Russian assets by international investors, the former investing partner of George Soros hasn't changed his mind about the former Communist nation. Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss and Daniel Bases reported on the Reuters website Sunday:
"Russia's stock market right now is one of the cheapest in the world, and probably one of the most hated," said investor and commodities guru Jim Rogers, chairman of Rogers Holdings, in Singapore. "This is the time to buy Russia."
(Editor: Bold added for emphasis)
Chavez-Dreyfuss and Bases added later in the piece:
Rogers, who has been investing in Russia for the last 1-1/2 years, said he bought Russian stocks last week. He said if more sanctions are imposed and the equities market declines further, there would be more buying opportunities in Russia.
Rogers said he is looking for non-energy companies – a tall order considering the RTS Index of 51 leading Russian companies is heavily skewed toward energy (58 percent of the index) and basic materials (13 percent)…
(Editor: Bold added for emphasis)
In January 2013, the Singapore-based investor identified Russia as one market holding the best prospects for investors. Next month, Rogers made it known he had bought Russian bonds and currency. By September, he revealed he had also bought Russian ETFs, but explained:
I don't want to buy their oil and gas plays because I own enough oil and gas. I'm looking for other kinds of companies in Russia.
By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
(Editor's notes: Info added to "Crash Prophets" page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)
Chavez-Dreyfuss, Gertrude and Bases, Daniel. "Analysis: Russia sell-off spurs hunt for bargains." Reuters.com. 30 Mar. 2014. (http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/30/us-emergingmarkets-russia-investing-anal-idUSBREA2T03720140330). 31 Mar. 2014.
Peter Schiff's Investment Advice Before The Fed Reverses, Increases QE
While I'm jonesing for a new entry on The Schiff Report YouTube video blog, I did watch Euro Pacific Capital CEO and Chief Global Strategist Peter Schiff on CNBC's Closing Bell on January 28. Schiff, who correctly-called the U.S. housing bust and 2008 global economic crisis, told viewers the U.S. economy is actually doing "lousy" and that he thinks the Federal Reserve will reverse course on quantitative easing this year, increasing the levels of "stimulus." When asked what one should do with their money, Schiff advised:
You should be buying gold. You should be buying mining stocks. You should be investing abroad. You should be getting out of the U.S. dollar. Because ultimately, that's going to be the big casualty here. When the Fed surprises everybody and does more QE, and people realize the box that we're in- that it's QE Infinity, that there is no exit strategy, that exit is impossible, that it's ever larger doses of this monetary heroin- the bottom is going to drop out of the dollar. You know, an economy that lives by QE dies by QE. We better be prepared for that.
"Yellen Will Reverse Taper and Increase QE"
YouTube Video
By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (survivalandprosperity.com)
(Editor's notes: Info added to "Crash Prophets" page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)
Jeremy Grantham: Farmland And Forestry Favorite Long-Term Resources
One "crash prophet" post down, one more to go tonight (I'll update the "Crash Prophets" page once I'm done with both). Next up is Jeremy Grantham. He's out with a new quarterly investment letter? Nope. But I did manage to catch an interview with the British-born investment strategist that was published on The Globe and Mail (Canada) website on January 30. From their exchange with Grantham, co-founder and chief investment strategist of Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo & Co. (GMO):
How do you play this sort of environment?
There is no easy answer, and anyone who thinks there is one is either ignorant or a crook. If you get out too soon, you'll be victimized as an old fuddy-duddy. If you stay in too long, you'll be just another trend-follower. But we know what the Fed does, and we know what [incoming Fed chair] Janet Yellen thinks. She says the market is not badly overpriced, which means she's not going to get disturbed if it were 20% or 30% higher. Consequently, I don't think that is unlikely.
Is this bubble-and-bust cycle one that can and should be avoided?
Of course it can and should be avoided. But by appointing Janet Yellen, you know there is no inclination on the part of officialdom to change the game. Bernanke and Yellen are guaranteed extensions of what I think of as the Greenspan experiment in stimulus and relatively lax regulation. It is a totally failed experiment, with enormous pain. Will they never learn?
"It is a totally failed experiment, with enormous pain. Will they never learn?"
Back around Thanksgiving, I pointed out the following in Grantham's last investment letter (covering Q3 2013):
In "Ignoble Prizes and Appointments," Grantham predicted yet another market "bust" shortly. Grantham wrote:
But back to Yellen, who has happily gone along with the failed Fed policy of hoping madly for a different outcome despite repeating exactly the same thing. The past consequences of this strategy have been so dire on two occasions and threaten to be just as bad again sometime within two or three years.
(Editor's note: Italics added for emphasis)
Getting back to that Globe and Mail piece, there was this investing nugget:
What's your favourite long-term resource?
Forestry and farmland, if you can find those properties that have the least overpricing. They would tend to be overseas, in reasonably stable countries. Unless I could get a share in the Moroccan government's phosphate enterprise, in which case I would do it with a quarter of my net worth and feed it to my grandchildren.
Grantham, whose individual clients have included Secretary of State John Kerry and former Vice President Dick Cheney, talked about his "feeling about the state of the world," environmental issues related to investing, stock picking, and timber as well in the remainder of the discussion, which you can read in its entirety on The Globe and Mail's website here.
By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (survivalandprosperity.com)
(Editor's notes: Info added to "Crash Prophets" page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)
Retired BP Geologist Warns Global Oil Production Declining Over 4 Percent Annually
It's been a long time since I last talked about peak oil production. Peak what? Yeah, the mainstream media would rather run stories about alternative energy and "unconventional" oil production, as if it will somehow make up for declining "conventional" oil production before we're hit with another energy crunch.
I've been following this topic for close to a decade now. And some pretty informed individuals have deduced not only is the era of "cheap" crude oil gone, but global oil production is in the midst of a steady decline. Dr. Nafeez Ahmed wrote on The Guardian (UK) website on December 23:
A former British Petroleum (BP) geologist has warned that the age of cheap oil is long gone, bringing with it the danger of "continuous recession" and increased risk of conflict and hunger.
At a lecture on 'Geohazards' earlier this month as part of the postgraduate Natural Hazards for Insurers course at University College London (UCL), Dr. Richard G. Miller, who worked for BP from 1985 before retiring in 2008, said that official data from the International Energy Agency (IEA), US Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Monetary Fund (IMF), among other sources, showed that conventional oil had most likely peaked around 2008.
Dr. Miller critiqued the official industry line that global reserves will last 53 years at current rates of consumption, pointing out that "peaking is the result of declining production rates, not declining reserves." Despite new discoveries and increasing reliance on unconventional oil and gas, 37 countries are already post-peak, and global oil production is declining at about 4.1% per year, or 3.5 million barrels a day (b/d) per year…
(Editor's note: Italics added for emphasis)
Dr. Miller, who used to prepare the annual BP in-house projections of future oil supply, not only agrees with the conservative conclusions of an earlier study by the government-funded UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC) which predicted "a sustained decline in global conventional production appears probable before 2030 and there is significant risk of this beginning before 2020," but is dismissive of shale oil and gas preventing a decline in global oil production.
Dr. Ahmed wrote an incredibly insightful piece, which you should read in its entirety over at The Guardian website here, since this really isn't on the radar of the American press despite EIA data showing it should be a concern.
By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
Jeremy Grantham's Latest Investment Advice
It's been a while since I've blogged about Jeremy Grantham, the co-founder and chief investment strategist of Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo & Co. (GMO). To be fair, the British-born investment advisor has been taking a break from his popular quarterly investment letter that's published on the GMO website. For those of you who aren't familiar with Mr. Grantham, he's designated one of this blog's "crash prophets" along with Marc Faber, Jim Rogers, and Peter Schiff due to his special talent for correctly-calling the direction of the financial markets. He so good that individual clients have included Secretary of State John Kerry and former Vice President Dick Cheney.
Grantham was the subject of a September 20 article in The Wall Street Journal in which Ian Salisbury asked him about investment-related topics, such as the depletion of natural resources on Earth. From the Q and A session:
Q: What are investors supposed to do?
A: The investment implications are, of course, own stock in the ground, own great resources, reserves of phosphorous, potash, oil, copper, tin, zinc—you name it. I'd be less enthusiastic about aluminum and iron ore just because there is so much. And I wouldn't own coal, and I wouldn't own tar sands. It's hugely expensive to build coal utilities, and the plants they have to build for tar sands are massive, and before they get their money back I suspect that the price of solar and wind will have come down so much.
So I wouldn't use that, but I think oil, the metals and particularly the fertilizers, I would own—and the most important of all is food. The pressures on food are worse than anything else, and therefore, what is the solution? Very good farming, which can be done. The emphasis from an investor's point of view is on very good farmland. It's had a big run. You can never afford to ignore price and value, but from time to time you can get good investments in farmland, and if you're prepared to go abroad, you can do it today. I wouldn't be too risky. I would stay with distinctly stable countries—Australia, New Zealand, Uruguay, Brazil, Canada, of course, and the U.S. But I would look around, in what I call the nooks and crannies. And forestry is the same. Forestry is not a bad bargain, a little overpriced maybe, but it's in a world where everything is overpriced today, once again, courtesy of incredibly low interest rates that push people into investing. A wicked plot of the Federal Reserve.
Grantham also shared with Salisbury where he thought stocks were heading. Basically, not only does he think equities can go "a lot higher than this" with Fed backing, but they could even reach bubble territory.
It's a really good, insightful interview, capped-off with a discussion about unbridled American optimism, which you can read in its entirety here on The Wall Street Journal website.
By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
Salisbury, Ian. "Our Chat With Jeremy Grantham." The Wall Street Journal. 20 Sep. 2013. (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323665504579032934293143524.html). 24 Sep. 2013.
(Editor's notes: Info added to "Crash Prophets" page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)
Jim Rogers: Chinese Stocks Are 'Getting Closer To A Buy'
This morning I read a pretty good interview of well-known investor Jim Rogers that took place on June 13 on Fusion MarketSite, the official blog for New York City-based financial services holding company Fusion Analytics Holdings LLC. The former investing partner of George Soros shared the following nuggets with readers:
• Still bullish on China, but noted they have a water problem. Rogers suggested:
If you want to make a lot of money find companies that are working to fix that problem.
• Chinese stocks are "getting closer to a buy." Rogers revealed:
I bought a few shares on Friday. Their market is getting to the point it should be bought.
• Thinks bond markets worldwide are in a bubble. He's short junk bonds.
• While still bullish on agriculture, suggested:
Before we talk agriculture, I would look at natural gas, as any commodity that has that big a collapse should be looked at.
• And as for his home these days, Jim Rogers thinks Singapore is becoming the Switzerland of the East. He explained:
Overall, Singapore is doing well. Singapore is becoming the new Switzerland as its sits right next to China and has been helped by problems with offshore havens like Switzerland and Cyprus. It will be the fastest growing money center in the next 10 years.
You can read the entire interview on Fusion MarketSite here.
By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
(Editor's notes: Info added to "Crash Prophets" page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)
Jeremy Grantham On How To Avoid The 'New Dark Ages'
"The investment business has taught me – increasingly as the years have passed – that people, especially investors (and, I believe, Americans), prefer good news and wishful thinking to bad news; and that there are always vested interests to offer facile, optimistic alternatives to the bad news."
-Jeremy Grantham, "The Race of Our Lives"
I just finished reading the latest installment (covering Q1 2013) of Jeremy Grantham's quarterly investment letter. Grantham is the co-founder and chief investment strategist of Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo & Co. (GMO), and has a special talent for correctly-calling the direction of the financial markets. In "The Race of Our Lives," the British-born investment adviser discusses the fall of civilizations, and ponders the fate of ours. Grantham wrote:
Our global economy, reckless in its use of all resources and natural systems, shows many of the indicators of potential failure that brought down so many civilizations before ours. By sheer luck, though, ours has two features that might just save our bacon: declining fertility rates and progress in alternative energy. Our survival might well depend on doing everything we can to encourage their progress. Vested interests, though, defend the status quo effectively and the majority much prefers optimistic propaganda to uncomfortable truth and wishful thinking rather than tough action. It is likely to be a close race.
The body of the letter goes on to focus on falling fertility rates and the increased adoption of alternative energy, which Grantham believes could prevent us from going over the proverbial cliff.
As for investment advice from Grantham, whose individual clients have included Secretary of State John Kerry and former Vice President Dick Cheney, there's this nugget tucked away in the "Epilogue":
The two favorable factors described, with luck and some improved effort and leadership, may buy us enough time to completely retune our agricultural system, for it will take many decades to change attitudes and build the infrastructure, training, and research to move to complete agricultural sustainability. That in turn would allow us time in a stable environment to address the problem that will no doubt take the longest time of all: addressing our failing supplies of metals. Yes, we are blessed with large supplies of aluminum and iron ore, although, like agriculture and civilization itself, their usefulness to us is completely dependent on the availability of cheap energy. More to the present point, affordable supplies of most other metals, some very useful, will run low this century and must be replaced by organic alternatives, which process will need all the time and research that success with the other factors might be able to deliver.
(Editor's note: Italics added for emphasis)
Another fine investment letter from the "crash prophet," which you can read in its entirety on the GMO website here (.pdf format).
By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
(Editor's notes: Info added to "Crash Prophets" page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)
Mayan 'Apocalypse' Update
All is well.
Calling it a night… and a b'ak'tun.
Edwin Hawkins Singers, "Oh Happy Day" (1967)
YouTube Video
States' Response To Health Emergencies Analyzed
How prepared is your state for major health emergencies?
From a press release issued earlier today by the Trust for America's Health (TFAH) and the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation (RWJF):
In the 10th annual Ready or Not? Protecting the Public from Diseases, Disasters, and Bioterrorism report, 35 states and Washington, D.C. scored a six or lower on 10 key indicators of public health preparedness.
The report, issued by the Trust for America's Health (TFAH) and Robert Wood Johnson Foundation (RWJF), found that while there has been significant progress toward improving public health preparedness over the past 10 years, particularly in core capabilities, there continue to be persistent gaps in the country's ability to respond to health emergencies, ranging from bioterrorist threats to serious disease outbreaks to extreme weather events.
In the report, Kansas and Montana scored lowest—three out of 10—and Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina, Vermont and Wisconsin scored highest—eight out of 10…
(Editor's note: Italics added for emphasis)
"There continue to be persistent gaps in the country's ability to respond to health emergencies, ranging from bioterrorist threats to serious disease outbreaks to extreme weather events."
I'm not surprised. Just one more reason preparedness makes an awful lot of sense these days.
Illinois, where I currently live, received a score of 5 out of 10 possible points in the report.
Wisconsin, where I'm planning on moving to down the road, received 8 out of a possible 10 points (as noted in the report).
You can read Ready or Not? in its entirety here on the RWJF website or here on the TFAH site.
Jim Rogers Talks About Potential Investment Opportunities In Commodities, His Portfolio
I don't like to buy things that are moving up. I like to buy things that are moving down… I don't want to buy anything for a 5 to 10 percent move- that's not the way I invest. Now, there are many short-term traders who make brilliant amounts of money as short-term traders and a 5 or 10 percent move up is great for them. It's not my way of investing. I like to find things that are going to go up for many years and go up many many percentages.
-Investor Jim Rogers, on CNBC Awaaz (India) in early September
Legendary investor Jim Rogers recently appeared on the Indian financial news channel CNBC Awaaz. On their Market Leaders show, Rogers talked primarily about commodities, potential investment opportunities in hard assets, and what his portfolio looks like these days.
When asked if the commodities bully market is over, the Singapore-based investor who correctly predicted its beginning back in 1999 told viewers:
Oh no no no, not at all. It will be over eventually. It will be over someday. All bull markets have come to an end. But Gorica (spelling?), it will not come to an end until a lot of supply comes on-stream.
On the topic of supply, Rogers said:
I don't expect world economic conditions to get better anytime soon. I would suspect that 2013 and 2014 will see worse economic conditions after the American election is over, and after the German election is over. I think you'll see worse conditions. Which means, of course, that there's not much supply. Now Gorica, if the world economy gets better, then obviously they are going to be shortages of commodities because we don't have much supply. But, let's assume I'm right, and the world economy doesn't get better, then you're going to have most governments printing a lot of money- that's not good for the world. But unfortunately, that's what politicians do. And when people debase currencies, when they print money, the way to protect yourself is to own real assets.
The creator of the Rogers International Commodities Index (RICI) back in 1998 said there were potential investment opportunities in agriculture, precious metals, and crude oil. On agriculture, Rogers said:
If I were an investor looking to invest in commodities, I would start by looking at the things that are most depressed…
Sugar, for instance, is 65 or 70 percent below it's all-time high… You know, sugar is down 65 to 70 percent from where it was 38 years ago Gorica. That's astonishing…
Cotton had a big run-up two or three years ago. Made all-time highs. It has come down sharply since then because people planted more cotton. But I would be optimistic about cotton because the prices are down dramatically from where they were. They still are not high enough to bring in lots of new production yet. The world economy has not collapsed yet. China is a net importer of cotton. So, I would be looking favorably at cotton. If someone were looking for a potential place for new investments in agriculture, I would suggest cotton as a place to start looking, because the prices are down from historic highs.
Regarding precious metals, the Chairman of Rogers Holdings repeated a lot of what he's been saying lately about gold. Rogers said:
I own gold. I am not selling gold. Whenever gold goes down, I buy more. If it goes down a lot, I hope I'm smart enough to buy a lot more, because the price is going to go up much higher over the next decade. Gorica, politicians around the world are printing a lot of money. That's the wrong thing to do but that's what they're doing. And whenever they print money, the way to protect yourself is to own gold, silver, platinum, palladium. Any precious item will protect you in periods like that.
The former investing partner of George Soros likes the prospects of silver more than gold. Rogers explained:
Well, of the two, if I had to buy one today, Gorica, I would buy silver… Silver is about 40 percent below its all-time high. Gold is about 10 or 15 percent below its all-time high. I usually prefer the things that are cheaper. I'm not buying either today, but if I were buying one today, Gorica, I would buy silver on a valuation basis. I own them both. I'm keen on both. Both will go much higher over the next decade. Silver, at the moment, happens to be the cheaper of the two.
The commodities guru sees crude oil going over $150 a barrel in the coming decade. Rogers told viewers:
If America goes to war with Iran, crude's going to go to $200. If Spain goes bankrupt next month, or somebody, some big surprise occurs in the market, then crude could go to $80 or $70. Who knows where it would go with some sort of sudden bankruptcy. It depends on world conditions. When crude goes down, I buy more. If it goes up, I sit and watch, because I do know that crude is going to go over $150, over $200 a barrel- U.S. dollars a barrel- over the course of the decade…
But I own it, and I don't plan to sell it for a long time to come.
Talking about his investment portfolio, Jim Rogers revealed:
I mainly am long commodities and long currencies. And I'm short stocks in my portfolio…
I happen to be very bullish on commodities. I think I know what I'm doing. I think that the big shortages are developing, as I said. Whether the economy gets better or doesn't get better, I want to have my money in commodities.
Great interview.
"Market Leaders: Jim Rogers"
YouTube Video
(Editor's notes: Info added to "Crash Prophets" page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein)
Peter Schiff Claims QE3 Attempt To Inflate Another Housing Bubble, Shares Investment Advice
Anyone who's visited Survival And Prosperity over the last two weeks probably noticed all the housekeeping items and other topics besides finance I've been blogging about. Whew! Time to move on. And who better to get back on track with as it concerns economics, finance, and investing than one of the original "crash prophets," Peter Schiff. In his September 14 entry on the The Schiff Report YouTube video blog, Schiff, who correctly-predicted the bursting of the U.S. housing bubble and 2008 global economic crisis, explained to viewers what QE3 was really about:
This is the plan that Ben Bernanke has. Ben Bernanke's plan to revive the U.S. economy, and create jobs, is to inflate another housing bubble. That's it. That's what the Fed's got. That's what it came up with. As if the last housing bubble worked out so well for the economy, that the Fed wants an encore…
How is another housing bubble going to solve anything. Now one thing that Ben Bernanke hasn't figured out yet- it ain't gonna work. No matter how much he tries, no matter how much air he blows in to that housing market, he's not going to reflate that bubble. There are simply too many holes in it, and there is no precedent for relating a busted bubble. More likely, all that cheap money is going to go someplace else…
So where is all this money going to go? Commodities. It's going to go to gold. It's going to go to silver. It's going to go into oil. It's going to go into agriculture. It is not going to make the economy better. It's going to make the economy worse. It's not going to create jobs. But what it is going to create is a higher cost of living for everybody, whether you have a job or whether you're unemployed. And believe me, if people are spending more money on food, and more money on energy, they're not going to have any extra money left over for discretionary spending. None of this is going to work.
The President/Chief Global Strategist of Euro Pacific Capital and CEO of Euro Pacific Precious Metals shared the following investment advice:
You've got to look through all this smoke. You got to buy gold, buy silver. Get out of dollars. Get out while you can. Get into real things. Own stocks outside the United States, in currencies with dividends and income that are not U.S. dollars.
This is the most important thing that you can probably do. You've got to save yourself first if we're going to save our country… We're going to go over a real fiscal cliff. We have a real crisis coming because of the Fed, but we've got to protect ourselves.
"Operation Screw: The Fed goes all-in on QE"
YouTube Video
(Editor's notes: Info added to "Crash Prophets" page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein)
Post Number 1,000
Well here we are.
Post number 1,000 on Survival And Prosperity, "Protecting and Growing Self and Wealth in These Uncertain Times."
It feels like it was only yesterday when I launched this successor to Boom2Bust.com, "The Most Hated Blog On Wall Street." In fact, it's been almost 22 months since its debut. My how time flies. Especially when bad economic news keeps piling on. The Pollyanna gang might argue that Keynesian strategies pursued by Washington and the Fed successfully ended the "Great Recession" and have put the United States on a sustainable path to recovery. I'm of the approach that when a lot of money is poured into the financial system you're bound to see some sort of pick-up in activity. At least initially. And, as we've witnessed, only temporarily, as more "stimulus" is required to keep the whole thing afloat.
But where has that left the country? As of last week, over $16 trillion in debt. And on the verge of yet another "quantitative easing." And anyone who really believes debt doesn't matter is in for a rude awakening when the nation's "financial reckoning day" finally does arrives.
Since the launch of Boom2Bust.com back in May 2007, I've been warning about a coming U.S. financial crash. As much as some might credit me for calling it, the maelstrom that blew through the U.S. and global economies back in the fall of 2008 was only a part of the collapse that I still see heading our way. Somewhat surprisingly, Washington and the Fed have managed to "kick the can down the road" for the time being. But the road only goes so far. Will the crash happen all it once, or will it be drawn out over several years? I don't know. I just know that my interpretation of the available data leads me to believe its coming.
To complicate matters, these days Americans must take into account other threats besides an economic crash. Depending on what one believes, these could include:
• Global warming
• Nuclear terrorism
• Overpopulation
• Pandemic
• Peak oil production
• Resource shortages
• Solar flares
There are others. Nevertheless, a lot of threats exist these days which endanger our survival and prosperity.
So in 2012, are we looking at the end of the world? Probably not. But most likely the end of the world as we know it (TEOTWAWKI), particularly as it relates to the U.S. economy and larger financial system. Accordingly, life in America is about to get a whole lot tougher for most (if it already hasn't). A number of really smart individuals who predicted the 2008 global economic crisis and "Great Recession" suggest we could see:
• Civil strife, including rioting and looting
• Currency controls
• Hyperinflation
• Martial law
• Much higher taxes and fees
• Rampant crime
• "Second Great Depression"
There's more, but I think you get the picture.
Despite all this, I must remind you that I'm not talking about the end of the world here. Remember, even at its worst unemployment during the Great Depression ran somewhere around 25 percent. While that really sucked for those without a job, not everyone found themselves in a soup kitchen line. The economy and society, though hobbled, still functioned.
I'm a big believer that, despite the coming crash, things will turn out okay for America in the long-run.
I also believe that focusing on one's personal and financial safety and growth right now will go a long way in helping you and your loved ones come out on the other side of the approaching storm in reasonably good shape.
Wishing you all the best now, and down the rocky road I see in store for us,
Christopher E. Hill
Citigroup: Saudi Arabia To Stop Exporting Oil By 2030
The International Energy Agency has released its World Energy Outlook for 2010, forecasting for the first time that the global crude oil production peak that so many have long feared, has in fact already been reached-more than four years ago.
-Reuters.com, November 18, 2010
Here's something you probably won't hear through many of the mainstream media outlets in the United States. Ambrose Evans-Pritchard wrote on The Telegraph (UK) website yesterday:
If Citigroup is right, Saudi Arabia will cease to be an oil exporter by 2030, far sooner than previously thought.
A 150-page report by Heidy Rehman on the Saudi petrochemical industry should be sober reading for those who think that shale oil and gas have solved our global energy crunch…
From Heidy Rehman at Citi:
• Saudi Arabia Could be an Oil Importer by ~2030 — Saudi Arabia is the world's largest oil producer (11.1mbpd) & exporter (7.7mbpd). It also consumes 25% of its production. Energy consumption per capita exceeds that of most industrial nations. Oil & its derivatives account for ~50% of Saudi's electricity production, used mostly (>50%) for residential use. Peak power demand is growing by ~8%/yr. Our analysis shows that if nothing changes Saudi may have no available oil for export by 2030…
(Editor's note: Italics added for emphasis)
Last year, confidential cables between the U.S. Embassy in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, and Washington, D.C., that were released by WikiLeaks suggested Saudi Arabian oil reserves may be overstated. John Vidal wrote on The Guardian (UK) website back on February 8, 2011:
The US fears that Saudi Arabia, the world's largest crude oil exporter, may not have enough reserves to prevent oil prices escalating, confidential cables from its embassy in Riyadh show.
The cables, released by WikiLeaks, urge Washington to take seriously a warning from a senior Saudi government oil executive that the kingdom's crude oil reserves may have been overstated by as much as 300bn barrels – nearly 40%…
According to the cables, which date between 2007-09, [geologist and former head of exploration at the Saudi oil monopoly Aramco Sadad] Husseini said Saudi Arabia might reach an output of 12m barrels a day in 10 years but before then – possibly as early as 2012 – global oil production would have hit its highest point.
(Editor's note: Italics added for emphasis)
Plenty of crude oil for everyone. Nothing to see here. Move along…
Evans-Pritchard, Ambrose. "Saudi oil well dries up." The Telegraph. 5 Sep. 2012. (http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100019812/saudi-oil-well-dries-up/). 6 Sep. 2012.
Vidal, John. "WikiLeaks cables: Saudi Arabia cannot pump enough oil to keep a lid on prices." The Guardian. 8 Feb. 2011. (http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/feb/08/saudi-oil-reserves-overstated-wikileaks). 6 Sep. 2012.
Texas Family Preps For 'Very Human Stupidity And Desperation'
Speaking of self-reliance and Texas this morning, I happened to stumble on an interesting article about a McAllen prepper family by their local newspaper. Madeleine Smith wrote on The Monitor website Monday:
The Sepúlvedas are by all appearances an average family. They have a house filled with the warmth and bustle of three kids and the family dog. Their home is tasteful and modern, looking for all the world like a normal, suburban abode — but not every home has a secret room. The Sepúlvedas (we'll call them Raul and Marissa) are what are known as "preppers,"— people who are stocking up for the collapse of civilization, or the end of the world as we know it…
Note what dad "Raul" Sepúlvedas had to say about why they prep:
"We're not prepping just because it's 2012 — we are preparing for very human stupidity and desperation," Raul says seriously. "Whenever there's a hurricane or things like that, within an hour, the stores are cleared out. If you were in trouble, if your kids were hungry and you knew the people across the street had food, you would try to get some for your family. It's human nature. People go a little crazy during scary events — it's just smart to be prepared."
"Very human stupidity and desperation." No shortage of that these days, right? And leave it to some emergency or disaster for it to really shine through in a lot of people.
You can read the entire article on The Monitor website here.
Christopher E. Hill, Editor
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Hong Kong Sunset Cruise plus Dinner at the Jumbo Floating Restaurant
Read what other Viator.com travelers think about the Hong Kong Sunset Cruise plus Dinner at the Jumbo Floating Restaurant. What they loved, what they liked and what they think could be improved, it's all here to help you make the most of your next trip.
Click here for tour details, schedule and pricing
Rick W
South Africa
A very well organised tour. The harbour cruise went on for a lot longer that I expected, giving us a chance to view the impressive skylines of both Hong Kong and Kowloon at night. Dinner at the Jumbo Floating Restaurant was excellent.
Excellent tour. Great way to see the skyline and get a feel for Hong Kong. Free drinks on the boat. Jumbo experience good also. Food good quality, very tasty. I am allergic to fish but the Tour Guide organised separate dishes for me. Very well organised, only slight negative was pick up, as it is not completely clear exactly where one waits for this round the pier, though we chose the right spot.
brilliant! guide Ivan was awesome. harbour cruise amazing, seeing restaurant up in light was beautiful. well worth the money
The harbour cruise was lovely (even in the pouring rain) and the tour guide was very friendly and knowledgeable. Dinner at the restaurant was a sumptuous multi-course meal, I left stuffed with good food.
Excellent cruise and the dinner at the Jumbo Restaurant was fantastic.
G and M.BIRTLES AUSTRALIA
Loved it.
very good tour highly recommend this one meet some great people and the guide was exelent
Wonderful tour - my best night in HK! Beautiful lights on the harbour, and a glorious meal - highly recommended!
A trip well worth doing. The cruise lasted about an hour and a quarter and took you past all the night scene photographic opportunities you could wish for on both the Hong Kong and Kowloon sides of Victoria Harbour. The bar on the boat was free if that is of any interest. Once dropped off the trip continued to the Jumbo Restaurant by a short bus ride. The food was excellent and the company on our table was very good. If i could find fault with this trip it would be that the experience in the restaurant was a little rushed by our guide but it didn't spoil anything for us. Before being dropped off we were taken to a view point half way up Victoria Peak to view the city by night. Little disappointing that the 'view' point was partially masked by trees/bushes etc but there were still some decent photographic opportunities to be had. All in all, a trip well worth doing
Touristy, but a must do. Hour long harbor on sampan. Food was very good and restaurant was a picture taking experience. Stop off at overlook was added feature and drop offs to individual hotels very nice.
My favorite part of our Hong Kong trip was this sunset cruise around the harbor seeing the city at night with all of the lights. The dinner at Jumbo Floating Restaurant was delicious and the place itself is gorgeous and such a great experience!! Loved it!!
Everything from start to finish was wonderful. The boat tour around the harbor, the super fun guide, and the wonderful dinner at Jumbo. This was an amazing trip for the price and we would definitely do it again.
This was the best tour the Guide was excellent , Dinner at Jumbo was excellent . The cruise was amazing saw the sunset.
There is a lot of history connected with the restaurant - lot of attendance by royalty and movie stars. The food was rather good. We sat at a very large round table with a large lazy susan in the middle to distribute the food. The disappointment was that there was no sunset - it was daylight savings time. They tried to compensate after dinner by taking us up towards Stanley Peak to overlook Hong Kong at night but between fog and smog it didn't work very well. What was really nice is that, instead of dropping us off at the pickup point, they dropped everyone off at their hotels, saving us all taxi fare.