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Oculus is the most well designed/balanced/thought out instance ever created. You even get to ride DRAKES! How cool is that! God bless Oculus, and God bless Blizzard.
Occ is an instance that I finished, with my guild, almost a year ago, vowing never to return, even for the void achieves. It was only satisfying, at the very end, when the dragon went down.
Now, I seem to draw it a lot, and I will do it, since I know it's been nerfed, and all...
Except, now, when the dragon dies, I don't even do a little dance, or type "woot--die, sucker!"
Might as well be Hannibal Lector, eating his fava beans...
As to the bugs--
Yesterday, I experienced my drake rising up and up above Eregos, without any ability to stop, until I was out of range. All I could do was cheerlead, and hit time stop, which didn't seem to have a range (interesting, eh?). Since it was on normal mode (hey, two badges, for the first run), the group was able to kill him, with only my measly time stop, to help them. I have to say, I found that both annoying, and a little thrilling, at the same time.
The rez-lose Drake thing is a bug, because it doesn't always happen. Not sure if it's supposed to, or not, so the bug could be either way.
The second boss, yes, I like to clear the blue drakes from anywhere near his platform. There's always one that aggros, just before the fight. But, there should be someone, preferably the tank, or red drake rider, who is the last to land, at all the platforms, just in case of accidental aggro.
Lately, that isn't going to happen, because everyone is in such a huge hurry. It's more likely the healer who is last to land...
And, I've also experienced a bug where no one can attack that second boss, which essentially ends the whole encounter...
-"Just like a buzzin' fly, I come into your life, I'll float away, like honey in the sun..."--Tim Buckley
Oculus is the most well designed/balanced/thought out instance ever created. You even get to ride DRAKES! How cool is that! God bless Oculus, and God bless Blizzard.
True Knowledge exists in knowing that you know nothing.
Agg's tanking guide
Note that I, personally, have never abandoned a group, in the Oculus or elsewhere without good reason (chain wipes, harassment, etc.). But I certainly don't see anything wrong with people who want to make a statement here.
-That kind of thinking about tanking in cata is the sentiment I feel is going to hurt the face of tanking a bit. If there's an influx of makeshift tanks, whats quality control have to say about this? "well we had to please them someway"
-I've lead many successful OC runs. It's more of simply taking a firm foot and tone assuring them that if they do what you've wrote out for them, it'll go pain free.
-The thread is not also one stating that it's piss easy even if you have to retrain people. It's saying that it has been regeared yes, but to get as cynical as to say "retrain every nab dps." You realize that's a one sentence fix and nothing like training chimps to go into space.
-In many parts of this game, the more difficult something is.. the better the loot. I knew alot of people that facesmashed on Heroic Shadow Labs, etc etc.
Generally speaking the hard places get the good loots! Personally I ran the place everyday for a piece that I wanted before I got in naxx.
-It may be no carrot, but the different color sure was tasty :3
The most stressful, yet provides the most gratification..
Tanking <3
I'm surprised this thread hasn't been closed, seeing as it degenerated pretty quickly.
I think the real reason that there's all this hostility about the instance is because it comes up in the random queues, and used to be a daily. Since it's a vehicle instance, it's different from the others in that your normal abilities don't apply. Although it's nothing unusual in games to have areas that play differently than the rest of them, it makes it annoying for those who don't like the instance that it interferes with their daily heroic. Maybe the best way to do it would be to remove the instance from the random queue all together, and make it a separate side dungeon that people can do, maybe to give them nice rewards like bonus emblems, bonus drops, etc. Maybe shift the normal items it drops there to other dungeons, and make it drop BoA items for people to get. That would be rather fun, and if they did that they could even un-nerf again, or even make it harder, since it would be entirely optional. After all, although slightly non-sequiter, in Dragon Quest V (the remake for the DS, anyway) do you know where you get the best weapon in the game? The casino. Totally optional mini-game. People like mini-games that are different, especially if there are nice rewards to be had, but they don't much care for being "forced" to do them. That's the driving issue here, I think.
So, anyone see the newest set of changes? on Worldofraids:
The Oculus had some additional changes made. The Planar Anomlies during the Eregos encounter will have a shorter duration and do reduced damage, some of the drakes above Vaross platform have been removed, and the drakes controlled by players will move a little faster.
Why don't they just give us some cheat codes to instakill everything in the isntance and shower us with gold and frost emblems? The palce is simple as all get out to begin with and they keep making it easier.
EDIT: Another point, it wasn't hard before the nerf....I wouldn't mind if they kept it as-is and made it "difficult" again. I'd still never bail on the group right after joining.
I will be dropping Occulus in the future, not because it sucks or anything (imo its the worst of all the instances, just because the trash is so annoying) but because my system (I play on a laptop) dies in there. I tanked it once, last weekend, first time I've been in there since my main (a mage) did it in January of 09, and we wiped twice. Partially because i was running with a huntard who didn't bother misdirecting to me even when I requested, but mostly because my system was so slow I wasn't able to maintain a proper 969 rotation because my system was so laggy. All the light effects, etc, just kill me, even when my system settings are turned low.
But that's just my two cents, since I think it would work better than just making it more and more rewarding while making it easier and easier to run.
But the last 3 weeks I've been queueing exclusively as dps (solo) and the queue time has been around 10 minutes on off hours, much less at peak time. Given that a group who loses a member (afk outs of ready check, vote kicked, drops group) gets put at the front of the queue... a tank gets replaced relatively quickly still.
In that same vein,the majority of time, waiting for a tank is a much longer wait than waiting for a DPS or a healer. Just because once or twice you experienced short wait times doesn't reflect the wait times as a whole? See where I'm going? It would be awfully difficult to prove and require data that I can't really gather in true objectiveness because I don't have access to that data which Blizzard may have on some server somewhere. The best I could do is rely on people to give honest answers to surveys and collect data from thousands of such sources to formulate an answer.
However, my point was never really on how having a Tank leaving is worse than a DPS leaving, that was someone else's point. And, ultimately, I don't want to argue. I made my statement about why dropping a group because you don't like an instance hurts other people. You don't have to agree with me, it's your right and I respect that.
Certainly, I realize that I can't prove anything either. And I do have the fortune of playing on a a battlegroup with 3 high-pop/locked servers. So queue times are always short where I am.
I'll also agree that leaving a group inconveniences other people, but I do disagree with you because it's an option for a reason. It's not an empty right.
I didn't like the tone that others were taking that it was morally wrong as a tank to drop group, as if the game revolved around tanks (yes I know I'm on tankspot so people are more likely to feel that way here). I'm not sure why I quoted your post instead of the others since you weren't taking that stance, but I guess it's too late to quote someone else .
I'm not in favor of this change. Lame and bad players leave occulus. As a result, the people who stay tend to be good. 4 of the 5 best pug groups I've had have been in Occulus. All of those 4 were fast enough for make it count. 2 of them were 5 ambers and 1 was 5 reds (yes, I said 5 reds). With this change, the retards might stay. I'm sad. I don't leave, I stick it out. Even if I have to teach someone who hasn't done it before. Doing 10 random daily heroics a day I can't afford to wait the queue time (10 toons is a lot of work ). If I'm tanking, I lead the group. If I'm not tanking I say what to do, unless the tank takes over and then I shut up and let them lead. Several times, people get the achievement for doing Occulus for the first time. Sometimes even more than one of them even with getting make it count. I'm able to tell them what to do as we move along so it doesn't take long.
My philosophy for this thread is the same as it is in my guilds 10 man runs when we debate, "Do we run 2 10 man groups this week or 3?". That is, as long as you treat it like its hard, it will always be hard. Do 3 groups and more people learn the instance and those who aren't doing well will wake up and fix themselves and stop being carried. 2 strong groups that full clear is more damaging to the long-term health of our guild than 3 groups that have to struggle a bit and might not even fully clear the place. Treat it like it's hard, and it becomes hard.
However, I will say that the "leave the group" option is NOT so that you can leave dungeons that you don't like. My evidence? The Dungeon Cooldown. If Blizzard didn't want the dungeon to be truly random, there wouldn't be a cooldown on the timer, which forces people to wait if they don't like what they got. Furthermore, if we got to be that choosy, I doubt we'd even have a random option, you'd just choose whatever dungeon you wanted for your daily, since it would be virtually the same effect.
Leaving a group is for after the 15 minutes, say the group is failing badly and you don't want to pay yet more repair bills, etc... then you leave the group. It's also for "gotta go, real life stuff." or "I forgot I had a raid" sort of stuff. Which is also why you can never truly judge any individual that leaves, since you never know.
And you're right. The tone became hostile and overly harsh, however, I did make a point that anyone leaving a group because they don't like the dungeon is a slightly selfish act. Not just the tank or just the healer or just the dps, anyone. However, it's your choice to make it and it's not anyone's right to require that you stay or to abuse you until you stay or to otherwise make you feel guilty for not staying. Your choices are your own, regardless of whether or not they have negative consequences for other people.
i dont think anyone disagrees with the point that "its easy". Its definitely not hard. Its just a simple point that "some people dont like it".
As someone pointed out, it different and because of that it can be frustrating.
We had it as a random last night and as i was with a 4/5 guild group i had my arm twisted to go and went. I complained like hell that i hate the fact that i have to use a drake but if i was solo LFG and it dropped on my doorstep i would still apologise and drop out.
each to their own.
Belgariad: EU : Lightnings Blade. Once a Tank. Always a Tank.
I don't dislike Oculus because it's hard. I dislike it because the instance is terribly designed, I greatly dislike vehicle mechanics, and despite it being easy, is also very easy for people to mess up. That said, I won't drop unless others drop. By then, I just don't feel patient enough to sit out waiting for three other people. I'll suck up the deserter debuff and get my daily random done on an alt.
Does this make me "bad"? If disliking an instance makes me bad, fine, whatever. But I play this game to have fun, and the minute I do something I greatly dislike with no benefit to me or someone I know, is the minute I need to reassess why I play. It's not your job to determine how I spend my time in this game, but thanks anyhow!
I spent ages learning my characters. Yet Occulus never gave me training time. You gain your last ability after the penultimate boss. The bosses were quite fun, actually. Apart from the final boss.
Navigating and pulling is a pain since it is not easy to estimate the distances.
The Drakes you are riding obscure too much of the screen. Even if zoomed out completely.
If you are not using the standard interface then you'll find out if something is wrong when it is too late. Since the start of the new LFG tool I had to test my interface while on the quest drakes. I left Ulduar and Malygos and ToC5 behind me ages ago.
It's not a loot thing. the whole concept is flawed. I won't jump ship when I get Oculus. But I'd rather not be there, truth being told. Sames goes for ToC5 and CoT4. Gimmicky instances don't work in the long run.
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killed in the Battle of Evesham on 4 August 1265.
Thing some people forget: If you do heroics with several chars (like most people nowadays), you can actually leave ocu on one char, log another, do random with him and just come back to the first char after that run. Now penalty at all for leaving.
Still, I prefer staying. Besides the 2 extra emblems and the chance on the mount, it's usually a rather fast run compared to e.g. Gundrak which I get half the time.
Mists of Pandaria Protection Warrior SpreadsheetOriginally Posted by Ion
Warlords of Draenor One Minute Field Guides


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The Grazia fashion and beauty team aren't the only ones twittering through fashion weeks (though we would urge you to follow our every move minute-by-minute here as we're heading to Paris). Turns out the models, designers and stars of the FROW have also had a few things to say about this season's shows. Here's our favourite fashion week tweets so far...
Remi Nicole on the Henry Holland after-party: 'dj'd tonight while kanye rapped over american boy!!! Then brought agy and gills back to mine for cheese on toast and sick in the sink!'
Taylor Momsen's clearly enjoying her first fashion week: 'will this fashion week addiction ever die? i hope not!'
Expect to see model Sessile Lopez at Paris Fashion Week: 'Running around Paris in 5 inch heels with Em - Life is so good!!! Even in Paris waxing is not fun'
Designer Louise Gray might have just showed her A/W '09 collection but she's not slacking: 'just frayed fabric for two work never ends, at least i have a hot boyfriend'
Henry Holland's hitting Paris too – with big ambitions: 'wants to have his picture taken by scott schuman and i don't care if i sound like a twat.'
Meanwhile stylist Sam Ranger is even dreaming fashion: 'had the best dream about miuccia prada last night. although has realised she isn't a fashion psychic.'
Jodie Harsh is being a naughty fashionista: 'landed back in london, gategrashed roberto cavalli's dinner party last night and podium-danced with the UK fashion pack in a grimey club'

subset: commoncrawl


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Students work with Pfizer to Improve Carbon Footprint
Pfizer Global Engineering and Manufacturing has been working with students and faculty from Rowan University's chemical engineering department to investigate green approaches to drug manufacturing, according to a July Rowan press release. The partnership is aimed at analyzing and quantifying the economic viability and environmental benefit, respectively, of investing in a small solvent-recovery system. Such a system provides an alternative to incineration for small volumes of waste.
The team tested several waste streams that had been generated at a Pfizer API synthesis plant in Kalamazoo, Michigan. The researchers examined whether those streams could be easily recovered with traditional separation and purification processes, using a small-scale distillation, solvent-recovery system, according to the release. The results were compared with Pfizer's current waste-disposal practice. The team also evaluated the economic feasibility of an improved carbon footprint.
Overall, the Rowan team determined that Pfizer could reduce its life-cycle emissions for the three drugs studied [Revolution (selamectin), Viracept (nelfinavir), and toluene, used in hydrocortisone manufacture]. They projected that the CO2 reductions that could be gained would be equivalent to the "amount of emissions saved by not driving cars 1.4 million miles in a year," according to the release. Pfizer plans to use the data when evaluating its solvent use and disposal practices, according to the release.
In 2008, Rowan students worked with Pfizer to improve the environmental profile of the manufacturing process for Celebrex's active ingredient, celecoxib. This earlier project was sponsored by Pfizer's Green Chemistry initiative and the US Environmental Protection Agency.
When the academic community collaborates with the corporate world, it's clear that many insights can be gained. The National Institutes of Health website includes a list of additional educational initiatives in green chemistry across the United States, although it's not clear how up to date the list may be.


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DEFINITION of 'Inside Day'
A candlestick formation that occurs when the entire daily price range for a given security falls within the price range of the previous day. Inside day often refers to all versions of the harami pattern and can be very useful for spotting changes in the direction of a trend.
INVESTOPEDIA EXPLAINS 'Inside Day'
An inside day is often used to signal indecision because neither the bulls nor the bears are able to send the price beyond the range of the previous day. If an inside day is found at the end of a prolonged downtrend and is located near a level of support, it can be used to signal a bullish shift in trend. Conversely, an inside day found near the end of a prolonged uptrend may suggest that the rally is getting exhausted and is likely to reverse.
CandlestickA chart that displays the high, low, opening and closing prices ...
Bearish HaramiA trend indicated by a large candlestick followed by a much smaller ...
Harami CrossA trend indicated by a large candlestick followed by a doji that ...
Bullish HaramiA candlestick chart pattern in which a large candlestick is followed ...
ExhaustionSituation in which a majority of participants trading in the ...
Forex Spread BettingA category of spread betting that involves taking a bet on the ...
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This rustic looking angel ornament would look great on my Christmas tree! I may just have to make some You can get the how to over at five brothers one sister: spice angel tutorial.
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Featured news
After a privacy breach, how should you break the news?
Following recent data debacles at ChoicePoint, LexisNexis, Bank of America and other places, more and more people are receiving the dreaded news that their personal information is at risk because of a privacy breach. Based on a recent study conducted by Ponemon Institute, we can provide some insight on what customers' expectations are when they receive notification.
By Larry Ponemon at Computerworld.
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Bonus tracks – daily!
By Merritt Colaizzi on March 4th, 2009 | 1227Comment on this posthttp%3A%2F%2Fsmartblogs.com%2Fsocial-media%2F2009%2F03%2F04%2Fbonus-tracks-daily%2FBonus+tracks+-+daily%212009-03-04+19%3A58%3A19Merritt+Colaizzihttp%3A%2F%2Fsmartblogs.com%2Fsocialmedia%2F%3Fp%3D1227
Today, we're pleased to introduce a new regular SmartBlog feature called Bonus Tracks.
As we prepare SmartBrief on Social Media each day, we make decisions about the mix of eight or so social media stories that appear in the newsletter that hits your inbox. Over time, however, we've found more than a few gems on the cutting-room floor.
For those who don't want to miss a thing, every day we'll post three to five "bonus tracks," links to articles you won't find in the daily e-newsletter – starting now. Think of them as a little extra something sent along with love from us to you.
Today's bonus tracks:
Photo credit, FourthFloor
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From Latex to Neon - Katerina Graham's Outrageous Ensembles
Katerina Graham isn't afraid to wear whatever she wants on the red carpet. She'll wear her spikes and neon and she doesn't care what you or Joan Rivers has to say about it! We love a gal with guts and style so check out some of our fave Kat Graham looks!
Katerina Graham's Avant Garde Red Carpet Style
It's never a boring event when Kat Graham is around. This stylish star always keeps us guessing with her avant garde and often outrageous outfits. From bright colors to unique shapes, Kat's ready and willing to try everything once. Check out some of her outrageous red carpet looks over the years!
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Who's scruffy-looking? Not you in this officially licensed, premium Han Solo replica costume from Anovos. Serious research went into this dashing ensemble.
The most important things to know when shopping for a new laptop, hybrid, or Windows tablet.
Lotus has worked hard to create the best possible driving experience and has delivered an incredibly fast car.
The film director has opened an online store and plans to sell "totally badass" headphones in partnership with high-end camera makers RED.
LoJack's new Galaxy S4 security offering includes sending real people to retrieve your lost or stolen phone.
The mighty device maker also plans to release an 8-inch Galaxy tablet and a smaller version of the S4, according to The Wall Street Journal.
Apple's latest ad, in which Justin Timberlake and Jimmy Fallon behave as you might expect gamers to, causes online ructions among some gaming devotees.
What happens when you mix Mobb Deep and Mario? You get a jangly, hip-hoppy good time full of curse words and retro gaming sound effects.
Developers will add at least 10 hard-core titles this year to help the social network target players who spend more time, and money, on games.
CNET editor Dong Ngo picks five external hard drives for serious and professional users.


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Monday, First Week of Advent - The season of Advent
From the Office of Readings
Each year, as the Church recalls this mystery of Christ's coming, she urges us to renew the memory of the great love God has shown us.
Each year, as the Church recalls this mystery, she urges us to renew the memory of the great love God has shown us. This holy season teaches us that Christ's coming was not only for the benefit of his contemporaries; his power has still to be communicated to us all. We shall share his power, if, through holy faith and the sacraments, we willingly accept the grace Christ earned for us, and live by that grace and in obedience to Christ.
The Church asks us to understand that Christ, who came once in the flesh, is prepared to come again. When we remove all obstacles to his presence he will come, at any hour and moment, to dwell spiritually in our hearts, bringing with him the riches of his grace.
In her concern for our salvation, our loving mother the Church uses this holy season to teach us through hymns, canticles and other forms of expression, of voice or ritual, used by the Holy Spirit. She shows us how grateful we should be for so great a blessing, and how to gain its benefit: our hearts should be as much prepared for the coming of Christ as if he were still to come into this world. The same lesson is given us for our imitation by the words and example of the holy men of the Old Testament.
Pope Francis: end world hunger through 'Prayer and Action'
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Pope Francis Prayer Intentions for November 2014
Lonely people: That all who suffer loneliness may experience the closeness of God and the support of others.
Mentors of seminarians and religious: That young seminarians and religious may have wise and well-formed mentors.
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Republicans stood fast in the Senate to shoot down two attempts by Democrats to extend tax cuts for the middle class and let rates rise for wealthier taxpayers. Said one Democrat after the votes: "This is the ultimate game of chicken." —JCL
Los Angeles Times:
In a rare Saturday session, Senate Democrats and Republicans remained at loggerheads over whether to extend the George W. Bush-era tax cuts to all taxpayers, ratcheting up the pressure on lawmakers to try to reach agreement before the tax cuts expire at the end of the year.
With Republicans unified in opposition, Democrats, as expected, fell short of the votes needed to overcome a filibuster and extend the tax cuts for all but the very wealthy.
An extension of the tax cuts to families earning less than $250,000 a year was defeated, 53-36, short of the 60 needed to limit debate. An extension of the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts to those earning less than $1 million annually was rejected, 53-37.
One of the bills voted on Saturday, extending tax cuts to families earning less than $250,000, was defeated, 53-36, short of the 60 needed.
A Progressive Journal of News and Opinion Publisher, Zuade Kaufman Editor, Robert Scheer
© 2014 Truthdig, LLC. All rights reserved.


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November 24, 2014
Tuesday, March 21, 2006
An Albemarle County family is without a home today following a fire on Tuesday morning. What started as a small porch fire at the home turned into something much bigger.
"When fire units got here the front of the house was heavily involved," said Captain James Barber of the Albemarle County Fire Department.
The fire on Key West Drive was so heavy it took 35 firefighters almost three hours to put out. Two people inside the home when the fire started were not hurt. The family dog was killed. Firefighters know the fire started on the porch. They are still looking for the cause.
"There are some things that we have to look at, and try to rule out. But, it's early on in the investigation," said Captain Barber.
Family and friends arrived at the home around lunchtime to console each other. Looking at the damage is a sign they will be spending even more time together.
"The house is pretty heavily damaged, and they're not going to be able to live in there for some time," said Captain Barber.
At least the people who lived in the 400 block of Key West Drive can return home.
In recent weeks, several homes in Charlottesville and Albemarle County have been threatened by brush fires.
There was no concern for neighboring homes at this fire.
"There's a water supply close-by, and there's a hydrant, so that wasn't an issue like sometimes as it can be if you have to draft water out of a pond," said Captain Barber.
The cause of the fire is unknown, and the investigation continues. Firefighters urge everyone to check the batteries in their smoke detectors.
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For more shows throughout the weekend, check out our New York Concert Calendar, which we update daily.
Last night, during the 55th Grammy Awards, we trudged through the bile and self-loating of angry would-be comedians and critics who took to Twitter to tell Jack White he looks like Edward Scissorhands and Johnny Depp he looks like the butt baby of Jack Sparrow and Steve Tyler and Adele she was dress ... More >>
Prepare for colder weather with Zac Brown Band at Madison Square Garden
Here are a few recent data points from chart bible Billboard and data provider Nielsen Soundscan as we move into the second half of 2012: • In its midyear music-industry report card, Soundscan reports a return to the dismal album sales climate; year-to-date disc sales are off 3.2% from the sam ... More >>
Have you bought your copy yet? (Give it time.) You can have your Grammys and your Mercury Prizes and your Polaris Prizes and whatever other musical prizes honor things like "talent" and "artistry"the most honest awards show in pop music, though, is undoubtedly the American Music Awards ... More >>
Kings of Leon Madison Square Garden Tuesday, November 16 Better Than: A Zac Brown Band concert, at the very least, you'd have to think. To say that Kings of Leon's wild success -- here we are, at a packed MSG, not for the first time -- is somewhat mystifying is not an insult, necessarily: You ca ... More >>
Hail your new leader, America."We try not to think too much about the Billboard charts," Asthmatic Kitty's Michael Kaufmann told us last week, when we asked him about the label's sales expectations for Sufjan Stevens's newly released Age of Adz. Maybe not, but the label was also straightforwa ... More >>
"Billboard's 'Tastemakers' chart is the one we should all paying attention to, don't you think?"This week's Billboard 200 is headed once again by Lady Antebellum, the milquetoast country trio whose second album Need You Now moved 481,000 copies in its debut week, and 209,000 copies in the sal ... More >>
The sound of silence. Leave it to these guys to save the Grammys' one real rap performance for the very end, promote it to death in advance, and then censor literally half of the performance with the zeal of a beaver building a dam. CBS has finally issued a brief statement as to why they silenced ... More >>


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NORTH FORT MYERS, Fla.- On Sunday you can get a taste of everything North Fort Myers has to offer, with the second annual Taste of North Fort Myers.
The event is at the Shell Factory from 11- 4.
Admission is $3 a person and kids under 5 are free. Some of your favorite restaurants will be there to serve up samples of their best dishes. Each will cost less than $10.
The North Fort Myers Chamber of Commerce hosts the event.
For more information, visit http://www.tasteofnorthfortmyers.com.


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Good product. When are you going to offer the hickory bisquettes in the 120 count pack? That is a much better value. Bradley pucks are the greatest. A little pricey-but the price is worth it for the lack of wood chip babysitting. I highly recommend. Smitty
Product gave a nice soft hickory flavor to a brisket and chicken wings.
This item was not shipped to me even though the packing slip showed they were. When I called I was told that they were out of stock and not available. Had to have a credit issued. I then went to the local store and purchased them. The product is excellent.
Bradley stands behind all there products. I have there smoker and have recommended them to everyone
I find that Overstock.com usually has the best buy on the Bradley products.
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Topic: Money, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar & other currencies, Gold/Silver (Read 79135 times)
Power User
Posts: 31695
Re: Money, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar & other currencies, Gold/Silver
Reply #750 on:
July 30, 2014, 07:14:52 PM »
Improving Economy, Weaker Guideposts To view this article, Click Here
Brian S. Wesbury, Chief Economist
Robert Stein, Deputy Chief Economist
Date: 7/30/2014
Apparently, an improving labor market and higher inflation are not enough to get any signal from the Federal Reserve that short-term interest rates should be higher or QE should end faster than they thought before.
The Fed did what almost everyone expected, leaving short-term rates unchanged and continuing to taper by $10 billion per meeting. As a result, the Fed will buy $25 billion in bonds in August and remains on a path to end quantitative easing at the end of October.
The Fed did make some important changes to the wording of its statement. On the labor market, it removed language saying the jobless rate remains elevated. Its about time considering how consistently the unemployment rate has been dropping faster than the Fed has anticipated.
But the Fed also added important new language, saying a range of labor market indicators suggests that there remains significant underutilization of labor resources. So, despite the jobless rate approaching the Feds long-term objective, the Fed isnt going to provide any firm guideposts on how changes in the labor market are going to influence monetary policy. This is very opaque the opposite of transparency.
Meanwhile, the Fed acknowledged inflation is approaching its long-term target of 2% and removed language about how inflation running persistently below 2% could hurt the economy. However, its important to note that what matters most to the Fed isnt actual inflation but its own forecast of future inflation. And the Fed has yet to issue a forecast that shows inflation higher than 2%.
Unlike the last meeting in June, there was one dissent from a Hawk. Philadelphia Fed bank President Charles Plosser, who thought the Fed shouldnt pre-commit to leaving rates low for a considerable period after QE ends. After his editorial in the Wall Street Journal, we thought Richard Fisher, President of the Dallas Fed would dissent, but surprise, surprise, he voted with the majority. We assume he was mollified by the minor changes in language to the Fed statement.
Overall, todays statement is consistent with our view that the Fed is already behind the curve and will end up accepting higher inflation in the longer-run than its current 2% target. Fed policy is easy, the Fed is making a commitment to keep its balance sheet larger for longer, and it sees no real urgency to raise rates. All of this will create a boost for equity markets and the economy over the next 12-24 months. And we still think the bond market does not appreciate the danger it faces.
Power User
Posts: 31695
Wesbury: Recipe for inflation
Reply #751 on:
August 18, 2014, 03:48:03 PM »
Monday Morning Outlook
Jackson Hole: A Recipe for Inflation To view this article, Click Here
Brian S. Wesbury, Chief Economist
Robert Stein, Deputy Chief Economist
Date: 8/18/2014
On Thursday, The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City's annual retreat in
Jackson Hole, WY will start. The topic of discussion is: "Re-Evaluating Labor
Market Dynamics."
The title itself says a lot about the Fed's current mindset. Economists have
been studying labor market dynamics for many, many decades, if not centuries. So,
why does the Fed need to do any re-evaluating?
The answer: the unemployment rate is still 6.2% and other measures of the labor
market are far from robust. This is true even though the Fed has spent trillions on
bonds, boosted its balance sheet to record levels and cut interest rates to zero.
Maybe the Fed should "re-evaluate monetary policy," or study "the
impact of fiscal policy on the economy" or find "the actual efficacy of
QE." With all those juicy, and important, policy topics available, why study
the labor market?
Back when Ben Bernanke was Chairman of the Fed, he targeted a 6.5% unemployment rate
to start tightening. Now, Fed Chair Janet Yellen says it's more complicated
than that. There are more important measures of labor market health.
What's interesting about all of this is that the Fed is becoming a poster
child for "mission creep." When the Fed first started in 1913, its job
was to protect the value of the US currency. Then, with passage of the Federal
Reserve Reform Act of 1977, the Fed received a dual mandate – to keep
"the unemployment rate" and inflation low.
This dual mandate was a mistake. The Fed has control over one thing – the
amount of money circulating in the economy. But, money itself cannot create jobs, or
fewer part-time jobs, or increase the labor force participation rate. If printing
money actually created wealth, then we should allow every citizen to counterfeit
their own currency. Of course, this would not work. Counterfeiting is illegal
because you get something for nothing.
No monetary policy expert has argued that the US experienced the crisis of 2008
because the Fed was too tight. And no one, with credentials, argues now that the US
economy is growing slowly because money is scarce.
In other words, monetary liquidity was not, and has not been, a problem for the
economy. As a result, any findings by the Fed that the labor market is not
performing at its full potential can be seen as proof that monetary policy is not
the tool for the job.
As the US learned in the 1980s, over the long-term, a single policy lever cannot
accomplish more than one policy objective. Monetary policy controls inflation in the
long run. Fiscal policy impacts the real economy (GDP and unemployment).
The Fed has now been easy for over five years, so it is impossible to argue that
monetary policy is being used as a short-term tool. If the labor market is still
having problems it must be because fiscal policy is harming potential growth. With
government spending, and especially redistribution, much higher than in the 1990s,
regulation a huge and growing burden, Obamacare, and higher tax rates, it's no
wonder employment and incomes are lagging.
Unfortunately, the Fed does not see it this way. It is willing to maintain
abnormally, and artificially, low interest rates because the US hasn't reached
so-called full employment. But those artificially low rates may cause other
problems, like a bubble in some sector, which the Fed has now decided to deal with
using "macro-prudential policy tools." It sounds really technical, but
it's essentially playing "whack-a-mole" once excesses from easy money
pop up. In effect, the Fed wants to use monetary policy as a long-term policy tool
and deal with short-term monetary problems by using regulatory tools.
In reality, the existence of financial market excesses should prove that Fed policy
is being mishandled. But the Fed will choose to view excesses as a mistake by
financial institutions themselves. Blame the other guy, always.
This is a recipe for falling behind the curve. The Fed is already there and is
likely to stay there for some time to come.
Power User
Posts: 31695
Reply #752 on:
August 18, 2014, 03:55:42 PM »
second post
StealthFlation Defined by BDI
An intractable economic condition that inevitably arises as unlimited units of
currency compulsively pursue nonproductive wealth assets in a grossly over-leveraged
economy which has been artificially reflated in a desperate and misguided attempt by
monetary authorities to synthetically engineer growth via extreme monetization.
Preventing the real economy on the ground from seeking the healthy normalization and
natural balance of free market forces necessary for genuine productive economic
Also known as; wishful thinking, and robbing Peter to pay Paul.
This entirely synthesized approach to capital formation has brought us the following
disastrous results:
1) Stealth incendiary inflationary risks to the economy due to latent money velocity
2) Repeat massive unstable asset bubble dislocations
3) Gross misallocation of genuine productive investment capital, stifling the
crucial SME sector
4) Excessive market volatility which stymies business development and trade
5) Lethargic economic activity and growth
6) Massive off-shoring of the manufacturing base
7) Facilitates fantastic fiscal deficit spending sprees
Decreases income & real job creation
9) Extreme income inequality
10) Eviscerates the very essence of money itself
Brought to you by The Savant @ StealthFlation , Stop by for Shelter from the Storm
Power User
Posts: 31695
CPI July
Reply #753 on:
August 19, 2014, 08:18:36 PM »
Data Watch
The Consumer Price Index Increased 0.1% in July To view this article, Click Here
Brian S. Wesbury, Chief Economist
Robert Stein, Deputy Chief Economist
Date: 8/19/2014
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 0.1% in July, matching consensus expectations. The CPI is up 2.0% versus a year ago.
Cash inflation (which excludes the governments estimate of what homeowners would charge themselves for rent) was unchanged in July and is up 1.8% in the past year.
Food prices increased 0.3% in July, while energy prices declined 0.3%. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.1%, below the consensus expected 0.2%. The gain in core prices was led by owners equivalent rent. Core prices are up 1.9% versus a year ago.
Real average hourly earnings the cash earnings of all employees, adjusted for inflation were unchanged in July and unchanged in the past year. Real weekly earnings are up 0.3% in the past year.
Implications: Consumer prices continued to move higher in July, though only at the tepid 0.1% pace the consensus expected. Although consumer prices are up a moderate 2% from a year ago, the year-over-year number masks an acceleration. The CPI is up at a 2.5% annual rate in the past six months and up at a 2.8% rate in the past three months. (!!!) Since the start of 2014, consumer prices are up 2.4% at an annual rate versus the 1.2% pace in first seven months of 2013. Owners equivalent rent (what homeowners would pay if they were renting their homes from soemone else) led the way in July, up 0.3%, accounting for most of the increase in the overall index. Owners equivalent rent, which makes up about ¼ of the overall CPI, is up 2.7% over the past 12 months and will be a key source of the acceleration in inflation in the year ahead, in large part fueled by the shift toward renting rather than owning. And while energy prices declined 0.3% in July, muting the rise in the overall CPI, we expect this measure to move higher in the months ahead, continuing the trend higher we have seen over the past twelve months. The worst news in todays report was that real (inflation-adjusted) average hourly earnings remained flat in July and are unchanged in the past year. Plugging todays CPI data into our models suggests the Feds preferred measure of inflation, the PCE deflator, probably increased 0.1% in July. If so, it would be up 1.6% from a year ago, barely below the Feds target of 2%. We expect to hit and cross the 2% target later this year, consistent with our view that the Fed starts raising short-term interest rates in the first half of 2015.
Power User
Posts: 31695
Krugman: Hawks crying Wolf
Reply #754 on:
August 22, 2014, 11:58:33 AM »
Hawks Crying Wolf
By PAUL KRUGMAN
According to a recent report in The Times, there is dissent at the Fed: An increasingly vocal minority of Federal Reserve officials want the central bank to retreat more quickly from its easy-money policies, which they warn run the risk of causing inflation. And this debate, we are told, is likely to dominate the big economic symposium currently underway in Jackson Hole, Wyo.
That may well be the case. But theres something you should know: That vocal minority has been warning about soaring inflation more or less nonstop for six years. And the persistence of that obsession seems, to me, to be a more interesting and important story than the fact that the usual suspects are saying the usual things.
Before I try to explain the inflation obsession, lets talk about how striking that obsession really is.
The Times article singles out for special mention Charles Plosser of the Philadelphia Fed, who is, indeed, warning about inflation risks. But you should know that he warned about the danger of rising inflation in 2008. He warned about it in 2009. He did the same in 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013. He was wrong each time, but, undaunted, hes now doing it again.
And this record isnt unusual. With very few exceptions, officials and economists who issued dire warnings about inflation years ago are still issuing more or less identical warnings today. Narayana Kocherlakota, president of the Minneapolis Fed, is the only prominent counterexample I can think of.
Now, everyone who has been in the economics business any length of time, myself very much included, has made some incorrect predictions. If you havent, youre playing it too safe. The inflation hawks, however, show no sign of learning from their mistakes. Where is the soul-searching, the attempt to understand how they could have been so wrong?
The point is that when you see people clinging to a view of the world in the teeth of the evidence, failing to reconsider their beliefs despite repeated prediction failures, you have to suspect that there are ulterior motives involved. So the interesting question is: What is it about crying Inflation! that makes it so appealing that people keep doing it despite having been wrong again and again?
Well, when economic myths persist, the explanation usually lies in politics and, in particular, in class interests. There is not a shred of evidence that cutting tax rates on the wealthy boosts the economy, but theres no mystery about why leading Republicans like Representative Paul Ryan keep claiming that lower taxes on the rich are the secret to growth. Claims that we face an imminent fiscal crisis, that America will turn into Greece any day now, similarly serve a useful purpose for those seeking to dismantle social programs.
At first sight, claims that easy money will cause disaster even in a depressed economy seem different, because the class interests are far less clear. Yes, low interest rates mean low long-term returns for bondholders (who are generally wealthy), but they also mean short-term capital gains for those same bondholders.
Continue reading the main story Continue reading the main story
But while easy money may in principle have mixed effects on the fortunes (literally) of the wealthy, in practice demands for tighter money despite high unemployment always come from the right. Eight decades ago, Friedrich Hayek warned against any attempt to mitigate the Great Depression via the creation of artificial demand; three years ago, Mr. Ryan all but accused Ben Bernanke, the Fed chairman at the time, of seeking to debase the dollar. Inflation obsession is as closely associated with conservative politics as demands for lower taxes on capital gains.
Continue reading the main story
Recent Comments
Sooner or later we will have some inflation and the wingers can say they were right.
Larry Hoffman
25 minutes ago
Mr. Krugman, once again, points out the prognosticators who keep making the same "WRONG" prediction. The most amazing thing about them is...
Bob Burns
25 minutes ago
Great column. I've been having this same argument with my investment advisor for 6 years and so far he's been left to manufacturing "facts"...
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Its less clear why. But faith in the inability of government to do anything positive is a central tenet of the conservative creed. Carving out an exception for monetary policy Government is always the problem, not the solution, unless were talking about the Fed cutting interest rates to fight unemployment may just be too subtle a distinction to draw in an era when Republican politicians draw their economic ideas from Ayn Rand novels.
Which brings me back to the Fed, and the question of when to end easy-money policies.
Even monetary doves like Janet Yellen, the Fed chairwoman, generally acknowledge that there will come a time to take the pedal off the metal. And maybe that time isnt far off official unemployment has fallen sharply, although wages are still going nowhere and inflation is still subdued.
But the last people you want to ask about appropriate policy are people who have been warning about inflation year after year. Not only have they been consistently wrong, theyve staked out a position that, whether they know it or not, is essentially political rather than based on analysis. They should be listened to politely good manners are always a virtue then ignored.
Power User
Posts: 31695
Wesbury: Rate Hikes approaching
Reply #755 on:
September 17, 2014, 05:40:37 PM »
Rate Hikes Approaching To view this article, Click Here
Brian S. Wesbury, Chief Economist
Robert Stein, Deputy Chief Economist
Date: 9/17/2014
We count five major takeaways from todays activity at the Federal Reserve.
First, quantitative easing (QE) still looks on track for winding down at the end of October. As expected, the Fed announced it would cut its purchases of Treasury securities and mortgage-backed securities to $15 billion in October and expects to announce an end to QE at the next meeting, which is October 29th.
Second, the median view among Fed officials is for a slightly faster increase in short-term rates. Back in June, the consensus was for the top of the federal funds target range to be 1.25% at the end of 2015; now its 1.5%. Previously the consensus was around 2.5% for the end of 2016, now its 3%. As a result, it now looks like the Fed will start raising rates by April 2015, perhaps even as early as the first quarter. To confirm this, look for the Fed to dump the considerable time language later this year.
Third, once it starts raising rates, the Fed will try to control the federal funds rate by using the interest it pays banks for holding excess reserves. It will also use reverse repos to help control the funds rate, but only as much and as long as needed. The Fed says it wont use reverse repos for other purposes.
Fourth, the Fed isnt going to outright sell securities from its portfolio to unwind its bloated balance sheet. After starting to raise the funds rate, the Fed will eventually allow its balance sheet to shrink in a passive way, by letting securities gradually mature without full reinvestment. The Fed is particularly reluctant to sell mortgage-backed securities (MBS), but may eventually do so several years down the road to clean up some long-dated securities on its books that wont mature anytime soon. Long-term, the Fed intends to go back to holding almost all Treasury securities, not a large portfolio of MBS.
Last, where theres smoke, theres fire. Two Fed officials dissented from the statement, both Philadelphia Fed Bank President Charles Plosser and Dallas Bank President Richard Fisher. More importantly, both dissents were from hawks, which suggests that if the Fed makes any changes in policy or projections at the next couple of meetings, its more likely to get more hawkish than more dovish.
The Fed also made some minor changes to the language in its statement, noting that the unemployment rate is little changed since the last meeting and the economy is expanding moderately after the downside surprise in Q1 and sharp rebound in Q2.
The bottom line is that the Fed has been and will remain behind the curve. Nominal GDP real GDP growth plus inflation is up 4.2% in the past year and up at a 3.7% annual rate in the past two years. A federal funds target rate of nearly zero is too low given this growth. Its also too low given well-tailored policy tools like the Taylor Rule.
Hyperinflation is not in the cards; the Fed will keep paying banks enough to keep the money multiplier depressed. But, given loose policy, we expect gradually faster growth in nominal GDP for the next couple of years. In turn, the bull market in equities will continue to prevail and the bond market is due for a fall.
Power User
Posts: 31695
Dollar going up?
Reply #756 on:
September 26, 2014, 12:32:03 PM »
Power User
Posts: 31695
Could we have been wrong on inflation?
Reply #757 on:
October 06, 2014, 02:51:58 PM »
Monday Morning Outlook
Inflation: What Inflation? To view this article, Click Here
Brian S. Wesbury, Chief Economist
Robert Stein, Deputy Chief Economist
Date: 10/6/2014
Who hasnt heard forecasts of Hyperinflation? Theyve been all over the web and TV ever since the Federal Reserve started a huge expansion in its balance sheet, called Quantitative Easing, back in 2008. Among other things, these forecasts called for a dollar collapse, dire problems for the banking system and 1970s, or Weimar Republic-like, inflation.
We have consistently disagreed with these forecasts. Yes, the monetary base has expanded rapidly. But banks have held the vast majority of this QE as excess reserves. These reserves just sit at the Fed, earning 25 basis points, but other than that, gathering electronic dust. They havent boosted inflation as feared. And we dont believe they are responsible for economic growth, or the rising stock market, either.
In economic terms, the velocity of money collapsed in the Panic of 2008 and, although there are some recent signs of a revival, its nowhere near bouncing back to where it was before the Panic. What QE has accomplished is reducing the money multiplier in a significant way.
To be clear, even though we never expected hyper-inflation, we did expect inflation to rise more than it actually has over the past few years. We thought inflation would be at least 3% by now, maybe even 4%. And yet, the Consumer Price Index is up only 1.7% in the past year while the Feds preferred measure, the PCE deflator, is up only 1.5%.
We still dont expect inflation to stay this low, but for a number of reasons, we now expect any move higher over the next few years to be very gradual, maybe half a point per year. This isnt enough, all by itself, to get the Fed to move rates much higher than it currently projects.
Heres why we expect only a gradual rise in inflation.
First, the Fed is fully prepared to increase the interest rate it pays on excess reserves. And while this doesnt guarantee the money supply wont expand, the Fed is also ready to use higher capital standards and Chinese-like bank rules to hold back lending, which will contain money growth and loans.
Second, real economic growth should pick up over the next couple of years to close to 3% versus the average of roughly 2% growth per year since the recovery started in 2009. This extra growth could help soak up some of the loose monetary policy.
Third, and lately the most important reason for a very gradual slog higher in inflation, is the huge headwind coming from the energy sector, where the combination of horizontal drilling and fracking is transforming production. Supply is simply booming and prices are falling. Back in 2005, the US was importing ten times as much oil (petroleum and petroleum products) as it was exporting; now that ratio is down to 1.9 and headed lower. In the next few years, the US could easily become a net exporter of petroleum.
These forces are creating disarray in OPEC. Saudi Arabia is willing to accept lower prices for oil, undercutting other oil exporters in the Middle East as well as Russia. West Texas Intermediate, which was $104/barrel in late June is now below $90/barrel, and probably has further to fall.
Gold is below $1,200/oz., a clear sign that inflationary fears are receding. We still think it has further to fall.
As a result, even though the Fed will start to raise short-term rates next year, the rate hikes will be gradual. We dont expect 50 basis point hikes at any single meeting anytime soon. More likely, the Fed will raise rates at one meeting and then pause at the next, in an attempt to damp volatility.
In turn, long-term rates will work their way higher, but not by leaps and bounds. We expect both equities and the 10-year Treasury yield to move higher later this year. While we look for 10-year yields to end this year below 3%, we look for something like 3.5% by the end of 2015 and 4% in 2016.
Most important for investors, is to understand that a 4% yield on the 10-year Treasury (the equivalent of a 25 price-earnings ratio) is not a headwind for the stock market. Based on next years forecasted earnings, the S&P 500 P-E is less than 15 today. That leaves plenty of room for equities to rally.
And even if the Treasury yield goes above 4%, thats OK for equities as long as interest rates rise primarily because of improvement in real GDP growth rather than inflation.
The bottom line is that our outlook for inflation has shifted downward, but not dramatically. We still expect more inflation, just not enough to cause serious concern for at least the next couple of years. This is good news for the stock market and the economy.
Power User
Posts: 31695
Did any of us see this coming?
Reply #758 on:
October 15, 2014, 09:05:20 PM »
Risk of Deflation Feeds Global Fears
Falling Commodities Prices Pressures Central Banks
By Jon Hilsenrath and Brian Blackstone
Oct. 15, 2014 8:26 p.m. ET
Behind the spate of market turmoil lurks a worry that top policy makers thought they had beaten back a few years ago: the specter of deflation.
A general fall in consumer prices emerged as a big concern after the 2008 financial crisis because it summoned memories of deep and lingering downturns like the Great Depression and two decades of lost growth in Japan. The worlds central banks in recent years have used a variety of easy-money policies to fight its debilitating effects.
Now, fresh signs of slow global economic growth, falling commodities prices, sagging stock markets and declining bond yields suggest the deflation risk hasnt gone away, particularly in the often-frenetic eyes of investors. These emerging threats come as the Federal Reserve is on track this month to end a bond-buying program that has been one of the main tools in its fight against falling prices.
The deflation concern is particularly pronounced in Europe and Japan, two economies where policy makers are struggling to come up with solutions to counter especially slow economic growth.
However, recent declines in commodities prices suggest that downward pressure on inflationif not all-out deflationcould become a wider-ranging phenomenon, and one with some mixed implications for economies like the U.S. and emerging markets.
Investor worries about the global economy appeared to gather force Wednesday. European stock markets sagged; the Stoxx Europe 600 index fell 3.2% to its lowest level since last December. U.S. stocks pared steep losses, but still finished down for the fifth straight day; after falling more than 450 points at one point, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 173.45, or 1.1%, to 16141.74.
Meantime, yields on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes fell to 2.091%, their lowest level since June 2013, and are down nearly a percentage point from the beginning of the year. Bond yields fell to new lows in Germany, too. Crude-oil prices dropped further; crude futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell to $81.78 a barrel, the lowest level since June 2012.
The deflation concerns are particularly acute in Europe, where annual inflation in the 18 nations that use the euro was 0.3% last month, a five-year low that is far below the European Central Banks target of just under 2%.
With inflation so low, it wouldnt take much of a shocksuch as weakness in Germanys economy or geopolitical tensions in nearby Ukraineto tip the whole region into a deflationary downturn. Some eurozone countries, such as Italy, have already tipped into deflation. Even countries outside the currency bloc are feeling the pain. Swedens statistics agency said Tuesday that consumer prices fell 0.4% in annual terms last month after a 0.2% fall in August, well below its central banks 2% target.
The risk of deflation in Europe is a real worry, Harvard University professor and former Federal Reserve governor Jeremy Stein said in an interview. The right prescription [for policy makers] is to be aggressive.
ECB President Mario Draghi acted against deflation risks in June and September, pushing the central bank to slash interest rates to record lows each timeincluding a negative rate on bank deposits at the ECBand unveiling new bank-lending and asset-purchase plans for asset-backed securities and covered bonds.
But there is little consensus for more-dramatic measuresthe kind of monetary stimulus the Fed, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan have deployednamely large-scale purchases of government bonds to raise the money supply.
The head of Germanys central bank, Jens Weidmann, has signaled his opposition to such bond buying, and other members of the ECBs governing council appear sympathetic to his argument that with government and corporate borrowing costs already superlow, the policy wouldnt even do much good.
I am very much for a steady-hand approach, and I think this is what we are doing, Austrias central bank governor, Ewald Nowotny, said in an interview last week.
Hard fiscal problems are part of Europes problem. Last week, Standard & Poors stripped Finland of its triple-A credit rating and downgraded Frances outlook. On Tuesday, Fitch put France on review for a possible downgrade.
Struggling economies such as France and Italy face a tough choice: Take additional austerity measures to shrink budget deficits, inflicting more pain on their economies, or attempt to flaunt the EUs budget rules calling for low deficits, which could damage their credibility in Europe.
ECB chief Mario Draghi, shown in Washington this past weekend, faces opposition to further measures to combat deflation in the eurozone.R Reuters
The resistance Mr. Draghi faces has shaken the faith of some investors that policy makers in Europe will address the threat.
Market valuations, especially for rich countries, have been well above what was warranted by fundamentals. What kept them up there was a belief that central banks were markets best friends, said Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic adviser at Allianz Group. Most people now recognize that the ability of central banks to address what ails the global economy is weaker than they believed.
Meanwhile, Japan had recently begun to stir sustained growth, which helped to push its inflation rate above 1%, after years of on-again, off-again deflation. But inflation decelerated again in recent months as the economy softened after an April sales-tax increase meant to restrain mounting government debt. Many private economists forecast a slip back below 1% this year.
Japanese officials must now decide whether to follow through on another planned sales-tax increase that could dent growth even more. And the Bank of Japan is weighing whether it needs to provide even more stimulus. BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda launched new asset purchase programs last year to reverse two decades of deflation and has pledged to persist until he reaches the 2% target.
Japans struggles to exit deflation, even with massive central-bank stimulus, illustrate just how difficult it is for an economy to pull out of the trap, once it has settled in.
A weak global outlook has to be a worry for every economy, Reserve Bank of India Governor Raghuram Rajan told The Wall Street Journal in an interview last week.
The U.S. confronts much different circumstances than Europe and Japan. U.S. inflation had been rising toward the Feds 2% objective earlier this year but now faces a downward tug amid the weakening global growth and a strengthening U.S. dollar. The Labor Department reported Wednesday that producer prices in the U.S. fell in September. Sharp drops in commodities prices this month could add to downward pressure.
Yet falling commodities prices have silver linings. For one, the decline is being driven in part by a U.S. energy production boomnot just sagging global demand for goods. Moreover, falling gasoline prices are a boon to U.S. consumers: One rule of thumb is that every one-cent drop in the price of gasoline amounts to a $1 billion boost to U.S. household incomes, and gasoline prices have dropped by 13 to 17 cents from a year ago, according to the automobile group AAA.
All else equal, when energy gets cheaper, we benefit, Mr. Stein said.
Meanwhile, the Fed is on track this month to end its bond-buying stimulus program launched in September 2012. And Fed officials have largely stuck to their line that they expected to start raising short-term interest rates by the middle of 2015. Still, traders in futures markets have been pushing up the prices of contracts tied to the Feds benchmark interest ratea sign they see diminishing odds that the Fed will follow through on that plan.
Harvards Mr. Stein said he didnt think the U.S. central bank needed to alter its thinking much in light of recent developments. I wouldnt dramatically revise my expectations, he said. The balance of the job-market news in the U.S. has been very positive.
A Commerce Department report Wednesday showed U.S. retail sales dropped in September, but many economists are sticking to estimates that the U.S. economy expanded at a rate in excess of 3% in the third quarter, potentially the fourth time in the past five quarters it exceeded 3%. Moreover job growth has been stronger than Fed officials expected.
Write to Jon Hilsenrath at
and Brian Blackstone at
Power User
Posts: 12138
Re: Money, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar & other currencies, Gold/Silver
Reply #759 on:
October 15, 2014, 10:48:07 PM »
Yes, I'm looking for the post.
Power User
Posts: 4202
Re: Money, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar & other currencies, Gold/Silver
Reply #760 on:
October 17, 2014, 07:05:17 AM »
So yesterday the Fed hinted it might continue easing. It is so hard not to be cynical that this is just another political stunt before and election to buttress the markets.
Any comments? I mean Yellen is a liberal as are many of the Fed people.
Could this be any more convenient for the Crats and the self chosen One?
Power User
Posts: 12138
Piece by piece, replacing the dollar
Reply #761 on:
October 27, 2014, 04:20:39 PM »
Power User
Posts: 6098
Re: The Fed, Monetary Policy, QE, pro and con
Reply #762 on:
October 29, 2014, 10:41:49 AM »
Peter Schiff says what goes up must come down and that the end of QE will plunge the market and the economy into recession. Though he is labeled an eternal and extreme pessimist, the Fed must agree somewhat with his view noting their fear and reluctance over all these years to right-size money supply and interest rates.
On the other side of the coin,
I don't agree with this
but found it to be a strong defense of QE and at least partly true:
(The writer owns a private equity investment company.)
I want to offer some perspective on QE. As an investor and professional participant in the markets and a conservative, I thought I would try to offer something of a defense of the Fed and its decision to pursue what has been called QE, printing or what I remember being called open market purchases in my macroeconomic classes. The opposing case is typically what I think of as a populist case that doesnt really reflect an understanding of some important topics which inhere to a functioning capitalist economy and, very importantly, our fractional reserve banking system and the need for liquid (i.e. functioning) markets with a bid and offer.
Lets first consider a world without the Fed and without QE. In effect this is what we experienced, briefly, when Lehman went bankrupt, when Washington Mutual was seized by the FDIC (and lots of other banks essentially became insolvent). If you think about it, when that happens markets freeze and liquidity evaporates savers lose all of their savings. Depositors at a bank are savers. Buyers of money market mutual funds are savers. When Lehman went bankrupt, their related money market mutual funds broke the buck they were worth less than par.
The only thing that prevented this phenomenon from spreading was the willingness of the Fed and the Treasury to replace the banks as providers of liquidity and backstop deposits and so forth.
During the Depression, the Fed did nothing like QE and the Treasury wanted to force liquidation of excess assets and inventories and debts. The result is economic cataclysm, especially in a leveraged economy with a fractional reserve banking system. Banks cannot liquidate and satisfy their depositors need for cash. Deposits are borrowings for the bank. They in turn lend out the money they have on deposit to generate a return, and this pays savers a return. But when an economy goes into recession, this system malfunctions because the credit that originally justified the loan can no longer support it. This is the natural course of the business cycle. But the banking system on the way down is equivalent to the problem of a fire in a crowded theater. Everybody cannot get out at once. Not even close. Its a fire in a vault really. Those lines of depositors waiting to take their money out cannot be satisfied.
It is easy to castigate the Fed and the Treasury for bailing out lenders and management teams, but the truth is more complicated. They were backstopping a system which holds the savings for the vast majority of Americans. As for the continuance of QE, I would revert to the Depression data and again observe that the Fed allowed the money supply to collapse by 1/3. This was devastating to the economy. Allowing monetary contraction through forced liquidation (which is the policy antidote to QE) would be beyond cataclysmic it would make the Depression or todays Greece a walk in the park. Unemployment would be 30%, peoples savings would be wiped out all at once and the beneficiaries would be a tiny fraction of wealthy who would be able to buy assets for pennies from desperate sellers.
The primary criticism viz QE is that we are destroying the dollar and sowing the seeds of inflation. Maybe. But we are currently not inflating. At all. Commodity prices are falling or have fallen dramatically gold, oil, you name it. The dollar has strengthened viz its alternative currencies, including gold and silver. There may be particular areas of price rises, but that means its not a uniform monetary phenomenon. Measured inflation is tame. One of the inputs which drives inflation is something called monetary velocity, or the speed with which people spend their money on items. As it did in the depression, it has collapsed. During the depression, it was this particular input which was responsible for the collapse in the money supply. You can think of QE as effectively offsetting the decline in velocity.
Monetary authorities always dance on the head of a pin in this way, trying to balance all of these inputs and avoid catastrophe. Its a difficult task.
The truth is, the deflationary forces in the global economy are extraordinary. Technology, innovation, credit, freer movement of capital and labor all of these forces have combined to create massive excess capacity in most of the world. This is fundamentally deflationary. Those who long for deflation are being a bit glib (which we would get without monetary intervention, believe me). William Jennings Bryan railed about being nailed to a cross of gold. Thats deflation that arises from the gold standard truly hard money). He was a populist. In todays world, modest deflation would as it always does redound to the benefit of lenders (unless it also consumed them to in a deflationary spiral , as it likely would in the end). Rapid inflation is to the benefit of borrowers at the expense of lenders. There is a reason why all of these quasi populist, socialist third world countries inflate and destroy their currencies rather than deflate. Stable, predictable and modest inflation is probably best for us all, dancing on the head of the pin.
All in all, while he gets tremendous criticism (as did Volker, Greenspan and now does Yellen), Bernanke probably deserves a great deal of credit and a big thank you from all of us, wealthy, middle and lower classes. Middle classes have been more significantly damaged by tax policy and Obamacare than anything else (i.e. fiscal transfers away from them). But the Fed really has preserved the stability of the banking and monetary system from which we all derive extraordinary benefit.
(more at link)
Power User
Posts: 6098
Re: Money, the Fed, Monetary Policy, lack of inflation, lack of velocity
Reply #763 on:
October 29, 2014, 11:11:45 AM »
To follow a post of what I disagree with, I would like to post Steve Hayward of Powerline (famous people reading the forum?) expressing my view:
"One factor that ought to be mentioned as to why the enormous monetary growth hasnt led to inflation, in addition to the factors mentioned above, is the collapse in velocity, i.e., the speed with which money turns over in the economy basically. This factorV in the famous basic equation of monetarism that Friedman made famous, MV=PQfell sharply during the recession of 2008-2010, and has kept falling since then. You can see the chart from the Federal Reserve below. I believe this is unprecedented in the history of Post-WWII recessions, but I havent gone back and looked. There are some reasons to think a new, lower level of velocity might endure, but if it doesnt?"
The collapse of velocity will endure until economic policies change. The policies we call Obamanomics really started with political-electoral shift that elected Pelosi-Reid majorities (see hayward's velocity chart or any other economic chart). This shift of power ensured that higher levels of taxes and regulations were coming zapped the energy our of the economy - what economists measure as "velocity". The new levels of ever-expanding money supply are not too great for this continually collapsing economy, but it is a case of applying the wrong "solution" to the wrong problem. It is what I call putting more gas in the tank when two or three tires are flat and what Brian Wesbury calls the "Plowhorse economy". Moving forward without velocity. When we do re-energize this economy with pro-growth policies we also have to address the oversupply of money that was poured in for this period of doldrums. If you squeeze the money supply before the pro-growth policies fully take hold, you will get what those like Peter Schiff predict. Witness the recession of 1981-1982. If you wait even longer to fix what is really wrong while pouring in more and more money, the correction later will be all the more difficult.
Power User
Posts: 31695
Re: Money, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar & other currencies, Gold/Silver
Reply #764 on:
October 29, 2014, 12:47:08 PM »
Interesting posts Doug.
With regard to the proffered justification of protecting savers, unless I am missing something the author fails to address the protections in place by FDIC, SIPIC, and the like.
Power User
Posts: 6098
Re: Money, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar & other currencies, Gold/Silver
Reply #765 on:
October 29, 2014, 03:45:50 PM »
Quote from: Crafty_Dog on October 29, 2014, 12:47:08 PM
Interesting posts Doug.
With regard to the proffered justification of protecting savers, unless I am missing something the author fails to address the protections in place by FDIC, SIPIC, and the like.
Yes, savings would have been insured but I don't think the author was referring to the small amount of savings that the little guy doesn't have anyway. I think he is saying that in a complete meltdown the little guy would lose everything else too, such as his job, his home, and the local businesses. His argument has possible merit when looking at the moments of panic, where total financial collapse was possible, and maybe he justifies the extra-constitutional response we took, bailing out investment houses that were not federally guaranteed, and providing unprecedented liquidity. He is assuming FDIC would have been overwhelmed as well. But I agree with you that it is wrong to ignore the corrosive cultural effect that comes from punishing savings over such a long period of time that new generations now have no idea why they should save. We are not in a panic meltdown economy; this is a "plowhorse economy". )
He also misses the damage done by QE. We overinflated stock returns (more money chasing a fixed number of shares of a fixed number of businesses) while we pushed interest rates on savings down to zero. The small to medium player has to put funds at risk that otherwise would be insured, or else receive no return and no benefit of compounding interest.
Also, a point inferred in the original piece is that accommodative monetary policy enabled irresponsible fiscal policy. If not for the extreme actions of the Fed, the fiscal policy makers would have been forced to make better choices. We don't even borrow all the money that we spend but don't collect from taxes. How does anyone see that as anything other than unsustainable? And that takes us back to Peter Schiff's point, what happens when QE ends?
Power User
Posts: 31695
Re: Money, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar & other currencies, Gold/Silver
Reply #766 on:
October 29, 2014, 04:44:37 PM »
Research Reports
Fed Ends QE, Rate Hikes Now on Radar To view this article, Click Here
Brian S. Wesbury, Chief Economist
Robert Stein, Senior Economist
Date: 10/29/2014
We count five key takeaways from todays policy statement from the Federal Reserve.
First, the Fed clearly raised its assessment of the economy. Most notably, it deleted its long-standing reference to significant underutilization in the labor market, changing it to say that the underutilization in the labor market is gradually diminishing. This may not seem like much, but at the Yellen Fed a better assessment of the job market is a necessary step before raising rates and that hurdle is now much closer to being cleared. In addition, the Fed strengthened its language on consumer spending and completely deleted a reference to fiscal policy restraining economic growth.
Second, quantitative easing is finished by the end of the week, as previously projected. This doesnt mean the Feds balance sheet will suddenly go back to normal. Instead, the Fed will keep reinvesting principal payments from its holdings to maintain the balance sheet at roughly $4.4 trillion. Look for the Fed to keep reinvesting principal through at least late 2015.
Third, the Fed is taking a more nuanced view on inflation, comparing market-based measures (such as the five-year forward inflation rate), which have diminished recently, to survey-based measures, which have remained stable. The Fed pointed out that energy prices should hold inflation down in the near term but inflation should still head back up toward its target of 2%.
Fourth, the Fed maintained its commitment to keep rates at current levels for a considerable time, but added language saying rate hikes could happen sooner or later depending on how closely actual economic data match its forecast. We think this means the Fed is getting very close to removing the considerable period phrase. Look for the Fed to remove the language at the mid-December meeting, when Chairwoman Yellen will have a chance to fully explain the Feds reasoning at the post-meeting press conference.
Last, the two hawkish dissenters at the September meeting are now back on board with Fed policy while the lone dissent at todays meeting was a dovish one from Minneapolis Fed president Narayana Kocherlakota, who wants the Fed to commit to keeping rates low until inflation hits 2% and wants to keep quantitative easing going at the current slow pace at least through the end of the year.
The bottom line is that the Fed has been and will remain behind the curve. We believe the first rate hike could come in the second quarter of next year. But nominal GDP real GDP growth plus inflation is up 4.3% in the past year and up at a 3.8% annual rate in the past two years. A federal funds target rate of nearly zero is too low given this growth. Its also too low given well-tailored policy tools like the Taylor Rule.
In the meantime, hyperinflation is not in the cards; the Fed will keep paying banks enough to keep the money multiplier depressed. But, given loose policy, we expect gradually faster growth in nominal GDP for the next couple of years. In turn, the bull market in equities will continue and the bond market is due for a fall.
Power User
Posts: 12138
Putin stockpiling gold
Reply #767 on:
November 19, 2014, 10:22:15 AM »
Power User
Posts: 31695
Re: Money, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar & other currencies, Gold/Silver
Reply #768 on:
November 19, 2014, 11:35:01 AM »
Interesting , , ,
Power User
Posts: 6098
Re: Putin stockpiling gold
Reply #769 on:
November 19, 2014, 12:41:54 PM »
Quote from: G M on November 19, 2014, 10:22:15 AM
Yes, Putin is an interesting adversary, very calculating. With low oil costs I'm surprised he has excess currency. I suppose he can't buy dollars or euros right before he triggers the next crisis to drive oil prices up.
Power User
Posts: 31695
Re: Money, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar & other currencies, Gold/Silver
Reply #770 on:
November 19, 2014, 12:51:30 PM »
Do crises drive prices up in the current context? The middle east is in an accelerating burn, and oil prices are falling , , ,
Off the top of my head this looks more like a play to play for time if/when there is a run on the ruble.
Power User
Posts: 6098
Re: Money, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar & other currencies, Gold/Silver
Reply #771 on:
November 20, 2014, 10:36:22 AM »
Quote from: Crafty_Dog on November 19, 2014, 12:51:30 PM
Do crises drive prices up in the current context? The middle east is in an accelerating burn, and oil prices are falling , , ,
Off the top of my head this looks more like a play to play for time if/when there is a run on the ruble.
Great points. In other crisis, in Iraq, Iran, the Gulf, Libya, threat of war anywhere, it seems that all crisis drive up the price of oil. Why not now?
In Iraq, ISIS the aggressor wants control of the oil production and revenue, not disruption. It's quiet in Iran while they build their nuclear arsenal without objection. America is gushing with oil from fracking and Saudi is boosting supply while global demand is likely flattening.
For Russia, their crisis is the falling price of oil. Their current conflict is Ukraine today and maybe the Baltic States tomorrow. Since the Russian side is both the energy producer and the attacker, I guess there is no current threat of disruption to make the oil futures market nervous. Ukraine relies on Russian gas and oil, so they would not attack those supply lines even if they could.
Agree, he is setting aside reserves as safely as possible to protect the Ruble, or for himself somehow. What we never know is what global trouble Putin has in mind next.
Power User
Posts: 31695
We continue to be wrong about inflation
Reply #772 on:
November 20, 2014, 01:37:10 PM »
Data Watch
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) was Unchanged in October To view this article, Click Here
Brian S. Wesbury - Chief Economist
Bob Stein, CFA - Deputy Chief Economist
Date: 11/20/2014
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) was unchanged in October versus the consensus expected decline of 0.1%. The CPI is up 1.7% versus a year ago.
Cash inflation (which excludes the governments estimate of what homeowners would charge themselves for rent) declined 0.1% in October, but is up 1.3% in the past year.
Energy prices declined 1.9% in October, while food prices increased 0.1%. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.2% versus consensus expectations of 0.1%. Core prices are up 1.8% versus a year ago.
Real average hourly earnings the cash earnings of all workers, adjusted for inflation rose 0.1% in October, and are up 0.4% in the past year. Real weekly earnings are up 0.9% in the past year.
Implications: Next time you see an energy engineer, remember to give them a hug. They deserve it. Energy prices fell for a fourth straight month in October and continue to mute rising prices elsewhere for consumers. Consumer prices are up a modest 1.7% in the past year and the key reasons is Americas booming energy production and, as a result, lower world oil prices. The gasoline index is down 5% in the past year and now stands at the lowest level since February 2011. Given the continued drop in oil prices in the first half of November, look for another tame reading on overall price gains in next months report. However, there are sectors where inflation is moving higher. Food and beverage prices are up at a 3.1% annual rate in the past six months and up 2.9% in the past year. So if you only use the supermarket to gauge inflation, we understand thinking the headline reports are too low and that true inflation is higher. In addition, housing costs are going up. Owners equivalent rent, which makes up about ¼ of the overall CPI, rose 0.2% in October, is up 2.7% in the past year, and will be a key source of any acceleration in inflation in the year ahead. One of the best pieces of news in todays report was that real (inflation-adjusted) average hourly earnings rose 0.1% in October. These earnings are up 0.4% from a year ago and workers are also adding to their purchasing power because of more jobs and more hours worked. Plugging todays CPI data into our models suggests the Feds preferred measure of inflation, the PCE deflator, was probably unchanged in October. If so, it would be up 1.4% from a year ago, still below the Feds target of 2%. We expect this measure to eventually hit and cross the 2% target, but given the bonanza from fracking and horizontal drilling, not until next year. In other news this morning, new claims for unemployment insurance declined 2,000 last week to 291,000. Continuing claims fell 73,000 to 2.33 million, a new low for the recovery. Plugging these figures into our employment models suggests nonfarm payrolls are growing 200,000 in November, with private payrolls up 191,000.
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Congo Squares
This recipe was given to me nearly 50 years ago, at a company picnic, and it's our family's favorite dessert. Now my grandchildren bake it for their families. When each of our three sons got serious about a girl, sure enough, I'd get a call from a young lady requesting "his favorite dish". I always gave the girls this recipe.
48 Servings
Prep: 15 min. Bake: 25 min.
2/3 cup shortening
2-1/4 cups packed brown sugar
2-3/4 cups all-purpose flour
2-1/2 teaspoons baking powder
1/2 teaspoon salt
3 eggs, beaten
1 tablespoon
McCormick® Pure Vanilla Extract
2 cups (12 ounces) semisweet chocolate chips
1 cup chopped nuts
In a saucepan, melt shortening over medium heat. Stir in brown sugar.
Cool slightly. Combine flour, baking powder and salt; add gradually
with eggs to shortening mixture. Stir in the vanilla, chips and nuts
(batter will be very stiff).
Spread into a greased and floured 13-in. x 9-in. baking pan. Bake at
350° for 25-30 minutes. Cut into squares while warm. Yield:
about 48 bars.
Nutritional Facts:
1 serving (1 each) equals 144 calories, 7 g fat (2 g saturated fat), 13 mg cholesterol, 54 mg sodium, 20 g carbohydrate, 1 g fiber, 2 g protein.
© Taste of Home 2014


text: Romney Campaign: We Can Win Blue States Print article Send a Tip by Joel B. Pollak 31 Oct 2012 post a comment The Romney/Ryan campaign sought to project a sense of continuing momentum on a conference call with reporters today, amidst a slew of conflicting polls about the state of the national race, and new state polls suggesting that Mitt Romney could still face significant challenges in reaching 270 electoral votes, just as President Barack Obama is enjoying a slew of positive media attention regarding Hurricane Sandy. "We feel we are in a very good place," said Senior Advisor Russ Schriefer, "It is a close race, as we've always thought it would be. We have lots of states in play. And more importantly, we have an incumbent president who is stuck well below the 50% threshold." Schreifer also pointed to the turnaround in Romney's favorable rating in the RealClearPolitics average, where he now leads Obama by more than three points. And he stressed that Romney's closing argument was very strong. "We're very happy where we are," he said. In response to a question about whether Romney could actually win in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Minnesota, Schriefer said: "We are in excellent position to win....Could we win all of them? Probably not. Can we win some of them? I think so." He cited, again, Obama's poor numbers and Romney's edge in enthusiasm. Political Director Rich Beeson spoke about the energy and enthusiasm the Romney campaign is seeing on the ground. Noting that the Obama campaign cited numbers of staff and offices, Beeson stressed that Romney is tracking different numbers, such as numbers of doors knocked and numbers of absentee votes cast. The overall theme, he said, is that Republicans are ahead of where they were in 2008, in contrast to Obama. In Florida, Beeson noted that of 2 million early votes cast, Democrats held an edge by fewer than 40,000 ballots--a 70 percent drop from 2008. In Ohio, comparing county results in early voting from 2008 with those of today, turnout was significantly better for Republicans, he said. In Iowa, he said that Republicans prefer to vote on Election Day, and that Democrats need to bring an early voting lead of 130,000 to the polls on Election Day in order to win. Republicans are over-performing in early voting in 71 of 99 counties from 2008, making it less likely that Obama would reach the margin needed. Other swing states showed similar patterns, and Republicans seemed to be leading in early and absentee voting in Colorado. Beeson predicted "we will win on Election Day big" in North Carolina, which Obama has continued to avoid in recent weeks. Pollster Neil Newhouse brought even more numbers to the table, after stating that Obama "has got a political environment problem, has got an intensity problem, has got an environment problem, and he has got a ballot problem." He pointed to what he described as a consistent 8-to-10 point margin between those who strongly disapprove of Obama's job performance and those who strongly approve of it. "It's really very similar to the way the numbers tilted toward Obama in 2008 and away from John McCain." Newhouse took on the assumption in some polls that turnout will match what it was in 2008: "That's just really a stretch," he said. Next, Newhouse turned to independent voters. "If we suspect the partisan edge is going to be significantly narrower on Tuesday, then it's going to come down to independent voters. And Mitt's going to do very well. It's just cold, hard math." He pointed out that Romney frequently led by double digits among independents in national polls, and that he has led in 20 of 26 polls of Ohio. Given the fact that the winner in Ohio has tended to win independents as well, historically, that was a sign pointing towards victory for Romney, he said. Newhouse also took on the Quinippiac polls released today, which showed Romney losing in Ohio, saying that the poll had made an unreasonable finding that 96 percent of registered voters were also likely voters. Asked by USA Today whether they were "annoyed" by Gov. Chris Christie's "effusive" response to President Obama in regard to managing Hurricane Sandy, Schreifer replied that Gov. Christie is "just doing his job." Overall, the Romney advisers on the call seemed more confident, and less scattered, than David Axelrod and Jim Messina had been on Monday morning's conference call with the Obama campaign. They did not make the case that Romney is actually leading in the state polls in places he needs to win, but that Obama is in a weak position, and that momentum and enthusiasm are both on his side. Whether that is enough to push him over the top, and reach 270 electoral votes, depends almost entirely on turnout--and whether the assumptions of strong 2008-level Democrat turnout in most mainstream media polls turn out to have been wrong.


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