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Looking for opportunities to serve the community? Check this page often for updates about community service events on-campus and in the local community.
Community Service reporting is paperless at SDSU. Submit all of your volunteer hours ONLINE!
Curious if your activity qualifies as community service? Click here to find out!
A community service certificate will be awarded for every 100 hours you log with Student Life & Leadership (hours totaled on a semester basis).
Here are the organizations that our students spent the most time helping in 2014:
American Cancer Society: http://www.cancer.org/involved/index
Cystic Fibrosis Foundation: http://www.cff.org/GetInvolved/
Embrace: http://www.embrace1.org/
Habitat for Humanity: http://www.sdhfh.org/Volunteer/VolunteerOpportunities.aspx
JDRF San Diego: http://sd.jdrf.org/
National Eating Disorder Association (NEDA): http://www.nationaleatingdisorders.org/positions/nedawareness-week-volunteer
Prevent Child Abuse America: http://www.home-start.org/prevent-child-abuse/
Relay for Life: http://www.relayforlife.org/
San Diego Food Bank: http://sandiegofoodbank.org/volunteer-2/
San Diego River Park Foundation: http://sandiegoriver.org/get_involved.html
Urban Angels: http://urban-angels.com/volunteer/
SDSU Students reported over 44,000 community service hours for the 2013 - 20124 academic year. Keep up the great work Aztecs!
Jamul Primary and Intermediate School PTA – Fall Festival
We are an elementary school PTA (grades K-5). We provide various events for our students and their families. We have approximately 350 students.
Volunteer Details – Staff game elements at Fall Festival – Specifically, we are looking for responsible adults to help staff our Trick-or-Treat Street element. Students trick or treat to various windows and volunteers hand out candy through the windows.
We are happy to provide documentation for Service Hours if needed.
Location: Jamul Intermediate School
14545 Lyons Valley Road
Jamul, CA 91935
Date(s): Friday, October 17, 2014
Time: 4pm-8pm
If you would like to donate your time to this event, please contact Katrina Shaw at
619-261-5946 or firstname.lastname@example.com.
The 10th Annual Boulevard BOO! Parade
The BOO! Parade is San Diego's only Halloween Parade! This great Halloween event attracts over 10,000 people and takes place in the College Area on October 25th at 10AM. The parade runs along El Cajon Blvd starting at 59th street and ends at Aragon Drive.
The parade takes 250 volunteers with many volunteer positions to choose from. Each volunteer will receive a BOO! T-shirt, water, and a signed letter recognizing their community service. BOO volunteers are scheduled to volunteer from 8AM-1PM on October 25th. However, depending on the flow of the parade, there is a chance volunteer's shifts can end earlier than 1PM but it is not guaranteed.
To sign up to volunteer please fill out a volunteer application here: http://collegeareabid.com/boo/?page_id=24
If you have any questions please email or call the volunteer coordinator, Natalie Mendell, at email@example.com or (619) 582-1293.
The BOO Parade is put on by the College Area Business District, a non-profit corporation that manages the College Area Business Improvement District. This organization focuses their efforts on helping small business owners in the commercial corridors in the College Area of San Diego, including El Cajon Blvd., College Ave., and Montezuma Rd. The Boulevard BOO! Parade brings thousands to the commercial district to enjoy the local restaurants and specialty shops.
November 8th - The Children's Initiative
Registration Area: Sign-in Sheets, Raffle Tickets, Conference Program Distribution
Presenter's Table: Presenter Folder, Gift bag assistance
Breakfast/Lunch Tables: General Food Prep assistance
Display Art around Campus
Parking (big job): Coordinate and maintain safety of the parking lots
Set-Up / Clean Up: General moving assistanceRaffle Prize Area: Maintaining order and control of the raffle prize area
Classics 4 Kids is continuing to strike a positive chord with the diverse elementary students, teachers and families we serve throughout San Diego County with our unique and effective three-pronged approach to student and family learning and growth, through the transformational power of music.For 20 high-impact years, Classics 4 Kids has been focused on fulfilling our 501c3 nonprofit mission to provide custom, kid-friendly in-school classical music education programs and offsite professional symphony concert experiences as a catalyst for academic advancement, creativity, joy and personal growth. Students will be usher's at Balboa Theatre downtown San Diego for these upcoming shows: Please contact Kiran Shelat at email@example.com
Peter & the Wolf:
Join the Classics Philharmonic Orchestra and Conductor Dana Zimbric for a colorful and lively performance of the children's classic Peter and the Wolf animal adventure tale, with special guests from San Diego's acclaimed modern dance company, Malashock Dance.
November, 20th & 21st, 2014 at 9:30am or 11:30am
A Salute to American Jazz Greats:
The Classics Philharmonic Orchestra and Conductor Dana Zimbric celebrate U.S. jazz icons in honor of Black History Month, featuring celebrated jazz soloists, including vocalist Sherry Williams.
February 19th & 20th, 2015 at 9:30am or 11:30am
Once Upon a Tiempo:
Join the Classics Philharmonic Orchestra, Southwestern College Mariachi Garibaldi (directed by Jeff Nevin), and Conductor Dana Zimbric for a mariachi-infused program that ventures far and wide to explore the world of classic fairy tales through the lens of different cultures. This is a bi-lingual (Spanish and English) presentation.
April 30 & May 1st at 9:30am or 11:30 am
HandsOn San Diego creates opportunities for people to volunteer and lead in their communities. We strive to provide volunteers with a high-quality experience that fuels further action, and we envision a day when everyone is inspired and equipped to be the change they wish to see in the world.
HandsOn San Diego works with local nonprofits, schools and parks to identify group volunteer projects. These projects may be ongoing or one-time. We recruit volunteers and match each project with a trained Team Leader with the goal that everyone involved has a positive experience.
The American Diabetes Association-San Diego
We are currently looking for volunteers both in office and out on the field. In office would require some clerical work like stuffing envelopes, filing, scanning, etc. Out of office would be our health fairs. As a nonprofit we get a lot of requests on a daily basis to attend community events that create and promote awareness. Unfortunately, we more often than not have to decline our attendance due to our small number of available volunteers. Some health fairs are during the week while others are on the weekends so some flexibility would be required and transportation is a must.
Thank you for your time and I look forward to hearing from you soon,
Diana Felix
Specialist, Administrative Support
American Diabetes Association
(619)234-9897 Ext.7519
Are you are a student who needs hours as a school requirement ?
Don't let the clock run out....consider joining the River Park's Water & Weeds Team!
This team meets this fall every Thursday and Fridays from 8am to 11:30am. Rack up some hours quickly while helping the environment and learning about native plants. To be considered for this program, contact Cindy Collins firstname.lastname@example.com to learn more.
Volunteer Responsibilities:
Volunteer Requirements:
Reality Changers is a non-profit organization in the City Heights area of San Diego that has been recognized by United States Secretary of Education as a "model for the country. Graduates of the program have gone on to universities such as Harvard, Dartmouth, Duke, UCLA, UC Berkeley, UCSD, and more! Our mission is to build first-generation college students by providing tutoring, mentoring, scholarships, college application assistance, and other academic supports.
We are currently seeking volunteers to serve as tutors and mentors for inner-city youth (8th-12th grade) who desire to be the first generation in their families to go to college. Choose one program night from 6:00-9:00 pm on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, or Thursdays. Volunteers are expected to tutor one night a week for the duration of the academic school year (through June 2014). The school year starts right after Labor Day and our students are so excited to meet you and work with you for the next school year!
6:00pm-6:30pm - Hot Words Lesson (Communication/Public Speaking skills, SAT Practice)
6:30pm-7:00pm - Dinner
7:00pm-7:30pm - Lesson given by Site Director or Guest Speaker
7:30pm-7:45pm - Leadership development seminar
7:45pm-9:00pm - Tutoring in small groups
Tutor training and dinner are included!
If you would like to donate your time to this opportunity, please contact Alice Chen at 617-516-2222 or visit www.realitychangers.org.
Olivewood Gardens and Learning Center –Cooking and Gardening with Kids!
Looking for a volunteer opportunity that's FUN and EDUCATIONAL?
Olivewood Gardens and Learning Center is an organic garden and instructional kitchen that uses hands-on cooking, gardening, and science education to teach students and families about nutrition and environmental stewardship. We provide free classes, field trips, and community events to children and adults from National City and around San Diego County.
We are seeking outgoing and passionate individuals to join our team. Volunteers work directly with elementary school students during lessons, either teaching or supporting Olivewood staff. Internships available.
Also, we like to give our volunteers FREE ORGANIC PRODUCE!
Volunteers are able to schedule 3-hour shifts according to their schedules (most opportunities are on weekdays between 8:30 and 2).
If you would like to donate your time to this opportunity, please contact Ally Welborn at firstname.lastname@example.com. To learn more, please visit OlivewoodGardens.org.
Bigs (mentor) meet with their Littles (mentee) on a one-to-one basis at schools in City Heights and Normal Heights to play sports, board games, or share mutual interests. Matches meet at the same time each week at a local elementary school.
Bigs in Schools focuses on building friendships, and through those friendships, stronger
literacy and social skills are developed. This is not a tutoring program, but rather a
chance to build a friendship in a fun environment, while reinforcing the importance of
learning. Learn more at www.SDBigs.org
Volunteer Details: Must be at least 18 years old, have a valid social security number and be able to commit for at least a year.
Date: Ongoing
Time: 1 hour / week; 1 year commitment
If you would like to donate your time to this event, please contact Micaela Ortiz at 858.536.4900 x213 or via email at firstname.lastname@example.com.
Lakeside's River Park Conservancy is non-profit organization restoring and preserving the San Diego River. This sensitive habitat use to be the site of extensive sand mining but now that time has come to an end.
With the help of many volunteers we have brought the River back to life again as a natural riparian habitat and have built a trail and wildlife observation deck.
Several of California's threatened and endangered birds such as the least Bell's vireo and the Gnatcatcher have moved back into this restored area of willow forest, bulrush and sage.
Consider helping our local environment and learn about our native plants and animals by volunteering once or on a regular basis.
Group project for clubs, fraternities, sororities, and organizations available on request.
Both community service hours and court ordered hours can be verified.
Volunteer Detail
1. Follow direction and safety guidelines.
2. Arrive on time because the team goes into the field as a group.
3. Wear out-door work shoes and cloths. Hats and sunscreen are recommended.
4. Bring a minimum of 32oz of water to participate.
1. Must sign a wavier of liability, if under 18 years old a parent or guardian must co-sign.
2. Able to work outdoors in various weather conditions and along natural terrain.
3. Ability to carry 40lbs and use basic tools provided.
Date(s): Thursday through Friday, on-going…help once or on a regular basis
Time: *Can list various shifts*
8am to 11:30am Monday - Friday
If you would like to donate your time to this event, please contact Cindy Collins at 619-443-4770 or email her at email@example.com
Lakeside's River Park Conservancy is a non-profit environmental organization working to restore and preserve the San Diego River.
Through illegal trash dumping and camping and storm drain pollution the health of the River needs your help! Joining our biologist on a riverbed hikes or clean-up events.
You will make a difference by finding and reporting and/or removing trash from the and the sensitive habitat that is home to several of California's threatened and endangered birds such as the least Bell's vireo and the Gnatcatcher.
You will also be helping the and community that lives, works or plays near the riverbed by making it cleaner and safer.
The River Park's biologist leads these event and you will also have the chance to learn about our local environment, native plants and animals by volunteering once or on a regular basis.
Group project for clubs, fraternities, sororities, and organizations available on request.
Both community service hours and court ordered hours can be verified.
Volunteer Detail
1. Follow direction and safety guidelines.
2. Arrive on time because the team goes into the field as a group.
3. Wear out-door work shoes and cloths. Hats and sunscreen are recommended.
4. Bring a minimum of 32oz of water to participate.
1. Must sign a wavier of liability, if under 18 years old a parent or guardian must co-sign.
2. Able to work outdoors in various weather conditions and along natural terrain.
3. Ability to carry 40lbs and use basic tools provided.
Date(s): Sundays and Mondays, on-going…help once or on a regular basis…or sign your group up for a private riverbed clean-up event date/time TBD.
Time: *Can list various shifts*
8am to 10am on Sundays
10am to noon on Mondays
If you would like to donate your time to this event, please contact Cindy Collins at 619-443-4770 or email her at firstname.lastname@example.com
The American Cancer Society is the nationwide, community-based, voluntary health organization dedicated to eliminating cancer as a major health problem by preventing cancer, saving lives, and diminishing suffering from cancer, through research, education, advocacy, and service. We serve those who are diagnosed with cancer, supporters, families and caregivers, and survivors of cancer.
This opportunity is specifically related to Proposition 29, the California Cancer Research Act. We are looking for Fraternities and Sororities who would be interested in coming to participate in voter outreach through phone banking. We provide refreshments, a brief training on the computer system utilized, games/challenges and prizes. Shifts are available Monday-Wednesday 5:30-8:30pm and Sundays during the day. All shifts are held at our office: 2655 Camino del Rio North, Suite 100, San Diego 92108. We can handle a maximum of 20 volunteers at a time.
Volunteer Details
Date: Monday - Wednesday, Sunday
Time: Various Shifts
If you would like to donate your time to this event, please contact Megan Johnson at email@example.com.
Challenge Ranch is a ten acre, twenty-five horse ranch in Dehesa Valley. We are a 501©(3) non-profit corp. for under privileged/disadvantaged children. The ranch is open six days a week, year round.
Volunteer tasks include: Moving hay, fencing, ditch clearning, barn (kid's barn) maintenance, weeding, tree trimming, painting, etc.
For more information, please visit http://www.challengeranch.com/volunteer.html.
The Navy-Marine Corps Relief Society is a nonprofit, charitable organization that supports active duty and retired Navy and Marine personnel and their families, in time of need. Last year, we provided more than $48 million of assistance to over 96,000 sailors. We are able to do this through the help of volunteers. Volunteer opportunities include: Caseworkers, Client Services Assistants, Thrift Shop help, Hospital Visitations and Administration.
Volunteer Details
Date: Ongoing
Time: Monday - Friday, 8am - 4pm
Contact: Sara Griffin (email@example.com) and Terri Seat (firstname.lastname@example.com). The NMCRS office is located in Bldg. 270, 3115 Dolphin Alley, on the Naval Base San Diego. You can telephone us at 619-238-1060.
At Mama's Kitchen we believe that every person is entitled to the basic necessity of life – nutritious food. As a volunteer driven nonprofit organization, we prepare and deliver food to men, women and children who are affected by AIDS or cancer.
Our volunteers deliver meals to our clients in their homes on Monday, Wednesday and Friday of each week between 3 and 6pm using their own vehicles, gas and insurance. Many of our volunteers choose to deliver meals to the same neighborhood on the same day each week while others prefer to deliver in response to our weekly email identifying our specific needs for the following week. New volunteers are required to attend a one hour volunteer orientation session. Orientation dates and times are listed at www.mamaskitchen.org.
Volunteer Details
Date: Ongoing
Time: Monday, Wednesday and Friday 3-6pm
If you would like to donate your time to this mission, please contact Bill Patten at firstname.lastname@example.com.
2-1-1 San Diego is a resource and information hub that connects people with community, health and disaster services through a free, 24/7 stigma-free confidential phone service and searchable online database. 2-1-1 serves the entire population of the County.
The Research and Data Center is responsible for data entry, collecting information about community programs and services, and building and maintaining professional working relationships with agencies and community groups
Volunteer Details
Date: Ongoing, 3 month commitment
Time: 2-4 hours per week
If you would like to donate your time or more information, please contact Jocelyn Garcia at firstname.lastname@example.com or (858) 300-1207.
ElderHelp is a non-profit organization helping seniors maintain independence and continue living in their own homes with dignity. Volunteers are a vital component to the organization and help our seniors by providing socialization to reduce isolation and helping with tasks such as: grocery shopping, transportation, light housekeeping, organizing, budgeting, yard maintenance and minor home repairs.
Volunteers either have the opportunity to be matched up one on one with a senior, building a relationship while providing ongoing assistance or meet many new seniors by providing transportation to help them get out and about to medical appointments or social visits.
Volunteer Details
Date: Ongoing - Bi-weekly or weekly visits with seniors to help with ongoing tasks, or pick and choose which rides you would like to give each month that fit into your schedule.
Time: Flexible, based on volunteer's availability.
If you would like to donate your time to this organization and opportunity, please contact Carrie McClellan at (619) 284-9281 Ext. 128 or via email at: firstname.lastname@example.com
Special Olympics provide sports training and competition opportunities for individuals with intellectual disabilities. We rely on volunteers to serve as head/assistant coaches at our practices, assist with fundraisers and office work, volunteer at our competitions as well as many other opportunities. If you have a skill/talent, we can find a way to plug you in at Special Olympics.
Volunteer Details
Date: Ongoing
Time: Times vary and can be flexible
If you would like to donate your time to this event, please contact Regional Sports Manager, Kelcie Kopf at firstname.lastname@example.com or 619-283-6100.
North County Community Services operates North County's Food Bank, seven preschools for income qualified families, and a garden program to grow food for our preschools. Our preschools are in Oceanside, Vista, and Escondido. North County's Food Bank is located in San Marcos. We have volunteer opportunities in all of these programs and the administrative office. Preschool volunteers may assist in our kitchens preparing meals, in the classroom attending children, or maintaining preschool gardens. Office volunteers may assist with copying, filing, data entry, and other office tasks. Garden volunteers help planting, harvesting, weeding, and watering.
Volunteer Details
volunteers must have a current TB test and be able to pass a background check. All volunteer opportunities need to be scheduled ahead of time, no drop-ins.
Date: Ongoing
Time: Times vary
If you would like to donate your time to this event, please contact Abby Weglarz at 760-471-5483 or firstname.lastname@example.com.
Excellence and Justice in Education Academies (EJEA) are independent charter schools in the city of El Cajon that are providing high quality educational instruction, academic enrichment services, a nurturing learning environment, and a supportive community to children so they can gain skills, tools, motivation, and self-confidence needed to be the first in their families to graduate from high school, attend college, and pursue their dreams.
Our Vision for Students:
• Literacy in multiple languages
• High test scores
• College ready students
• Close the achievement gap
• Ethical service to the community
• Opportunity and choice in life
• Empowered actors for social justice
Requirement for Mentors:
1. Proof of TB test.
2. Volunteer at least 3 hours per month.
3. Be enrolled in a college/university.
4. Have two referenced that will recommend you as a mentor.
5. Copy of class schedule.
6. Be open to phone calls for checking in with mentees at least 2 times a month.
7. Be able to commit to full school year.
8. Make at least one home visit.
9. Check in with school counselor.
If you would like to become a mentor, please contact Patricia Castaneda at firstname.lastname@example.com
Community Housing Works is a San Diego based non-profit that helps people and neighborhoods move up in the world by providing a full range of housing options combined with training and educational support. Our Running Readers program is a reading enhancement program designed to ignite a passion for reading in students Kindergarten through third grade.
We ask volunteers to make a three month commitment of 1hour a week between 3-6pm at any of our nine Learning Center locations: City Heights, Shelltown (National City), Poway, Escondido, Lakeside, Fallbrook, Carlsbad, Vista, or Oceanside. This would be a great opportunity for students who are also taking education or child development classes- particularly if courses require service hours.
If you would like more information about Community Housing Works and our Running Readers program, visit http://chworks.org/chw-programs-services/learning-center-program/running-readers-program/
Re Spectrum Community is a 501c3 Non-Profit operating in San Diego developed to assist and guide families in creating change, both within their immediate families and among the autism community, through therapeutic support and community activities for the whole family. Re Spectrum Community is dedicated to achieving social justice, by way of ReAbling a community of people that may have been rendered disabled, disordered, disconnected or disassociated from their larger communities because of a label or due to a diagnosis of an autism spectrum disorder (ASD).
Re Spectrum Community offers ReCreation programs throughout San Diego which combine ABA methodologies and basic skills training to assist ALL children and members of the family in ReCreating an active, responsible lifestyle. ReCreate opportunities for success, enjoyment & social interaction!
For more information or to donate your time to this opportunity, please contact Morgan Shea at
Located in San Diego, Helen Woodward Animal Center is a unique, private, non-profit organization dedicated to saving the lives of animals and enriching the lives of people. For more than 30 years, our no-kill Center has provided humane care and animal adoption for orphaned animals, as well as animal-centered educational and therapeutic programs for people.
We have events all through out the year where we offer Community Service and Volunteer opportunities to students.
For more information or to donate your time to this opportunity, please contact Laurie Doyle at firstname.lastname@example.com.
For over 20 years, Alliance for African Assistance has worked to provide assistance here in the United States and abroad, to refugees, internally displaced persons, immigrants, those seeking asylum, victims of torture and war, distressed women and children and altogether those suffering from economical hardship.
Today we remain dedicated to providing social, cultural, and educational support to all refugees in the resettlement process. Such assistance includes preparing host families; securing safe and affordable housing, help with rent and transportation, health screenings, enrolling children in school, English language classes and translation services, and job assistance and training. We have successfully resettled more than 8,000 refugees from Somalia, Sudan, Congo, Zimbabwe, Uganda, Ethiopia, Liberia, Eritrea, Vietnam, Iran, Kosovo, Bosnia, Iraq, and Russia.
Volunteer Opportunities include:
Toys for Tots Every Year, the Alliance for African Assistance partners with Toys for Tots to give Refugee children Christmas presents. In order to make this event happen, the Alliance calls on volunteers to exercise their creativity by wrapping gifts for 70 newly resettled kids. 3-4 hours/ once in December
Basics Drive Often, when Refugees arrive to their new places of living, they lack essential supplies, such as toiletries and basic food items. AAA invites volunteers to run Basics Drives to accumulate these necessary items and aid the road to self sufficiency. These Drives can be one-time events or week-long competitions. All products must be newly purchased and sealed properly. Open to volunteer availability.
Mailing Party Twice a year, AAA sends out a comprehensive newsletter, recounting the year's events and updating recipients on new developments. Due to the high volume of those on our mailing list, volunteers aid in folding, stamping, and sorting envelopes to prepare them for sending. 2-3 hours/once
World Refugee Day The Alliance is hosting its annual World Refugee Day event where refugees and community members of San Diego convene to recognize the challenges and milestones involved in resettling. Volunteers will be called upon to help with event planning, ticket sales, and day-of duties. Dependent on volunteer/ at least 3 month commitment desired
Thank-a-thon In the coming months AAA will be hosting a Thank-a-thon in which we will be personally calling donors and thanking them for their wonderful contributions. Without them our work would not be possible and we want to make sure they are aware of how grateful we are. Come help us thank our generous donors! 2-3 hours/once
Volunteer Details: Various dates and times
For more information, please contact the volunteer coordinator at email@example.com.
(California Democratic Party) – (Volunteer)
San DiegoSan Diego's 52nd Congressional District has some of the most highly targeted and closley watched races in the country, earning attention from national media outlets like the The New York Times and the Washington Post. Be on the front lines of some of the hottest campaigns to hit Southern California.
Are you interested in politics?
Would you like to learn what it takes to elect top-tier candidates to office?
Than this volunteer opportunity is for you!
Volunteer Details
-Get an in-depth educational view of statewide and nationally top-targeted races.
-Connect with voters and talk to the public about the issues that matter to you.
-Attend special events.
-Add a powerful and rare skill set to your "resume".
-Create and train communication, and the power of persuasion skills.
Flexible scheduling around school and work
We would love for you to join our team and keep California, and Congress, on track please contact Sean at firstname.lastname@example.com or call 562.213.6466
Sharp Grossmont Hospital volunteers work in departments throughout the hospital and share their skills to help the hospital fulfill its mission of excellence in patient care and customer service.
All college student applicants must meet the following criteria:
College Volunteer expected commitment:
Volunteer a minimum of 2 shifts per month; each shift is 4 hours
Date: Ongoing
Time: Monday-Friday, 8am – 12pm OR 12pm to 4pm
If you would like to donate your time to this event, please contact the Sharp Grossmont Hospital Volunteer Services Department at: firstname.lastname@example.com.
Pre-nursing and Patient Care Volunteers, Hospitality Volunteers, Retail Volunteers
The Sharp Chula Vista Medical Center Auxiliary has actively provided volunteer service to the hospital for more than 40 years. With more than 300 men, women and student volunteers, the Auxiliary contributes 50,000 hours of service to the hospital and surrounding community each year.
Volunteer Details
College Student Volunteers interested in volunteering at Sharp Chula Vista Medical Center must:
-Applications available September 1 – October 15 for our winter session which runs from January to June
Time: Shifts are typically 3 hours and once a week.
If you would like to donate your time to this event, please contact the Volunteer Services Department at Sharp Chula Vista at firstname.lastname@example.com / 619-502-3606 / 619-502-6606.
Mainly Mozart is a non-profit organization whose mission is to enrich the lives of today's and tomorrow's music lovers by connecting them to the music of Mozart and the Masters. Concerts are offered in several locations in San Diego County and opportunities to attend at low or no cost are offered to performing arts students in these areas.
Mainly Mozart is looking for volunteers for many of the Spotlight 2012 concerts. Please visit (www.mainlymozart.org) for additional information about Mainly Mozart and the concert season.
Date: Fridays and Saturdays, now through June 23rd.
Interested volunteers can e-mail Constance at (email@example.com) or call (619-239-0100 ext. 310).
The San Diego Center for the Blind provides services for those that are blind or visually impaired, helping them gain independence and self-reliance through the various programs and courses offered. Some of the courses available to clients are: Transitional Counseling, Kitchen Skills, ESL, and Orientation & Mobility, among many others.
Volunteer Details: Volunteers are needed in all areas
Date: Monday, Wednesday, Thursday
Time: 9:30am - 3:30pm
If you would like to donate your time to this event, please contact Loretta Moore at 619-583-1542 or firstname.lastname@example.com.
Become one of 10,000 locals to volunteer as readers, tutors and mentors for San Diego kids. Your volunteer pledge will benefit children all over San Diego County. Whether it's a year-round mentoring, 30 minutes reading to a 2nd grader or tutoring a teen, your support will get kids reading, get them learning and prepare them for successful futures.
Date: Ongoing
Time: 2 hours / week; 6 month commitment for many opportunities
Volunteer Details: Must be at least 18 years old
If you would like to donate your time to this event, please contact the Volunteer Coordinator at (858) 636-4111, email firstname.lastname@example.com or visit www.uwsd.org.
The Burn Institute is the local nonprofit agency dedicated to reducing the number of burn injuries and deaths in San Diego, Imperial, Riverside and San Bernardino counties through fire and burn prevention education, burn care research and treatment and burn survivor support services.
This is an ongoing project that is a FREE service for Senior Citizens 62 years and older. We provide the smoke alarms, batteries, tools, step-ladder and a route that is mapped out of homes that have requested this service. We determine the number of homes to service on a single day by the number of volunteers that sign up. We have an orientation and a simple how-to demonstration then volunteers partner-up and one volunteer needs to drive their car for each route assigned. Usually 4-8 homes on each route.
Example: 10 volunteers= five routes= twenty-five homes
Volunteer Details: Courteous and friendly volunteers wanted. In return you help reach the community and keep seniors safe in their homes with lifesaving working smoke alarms.
Date: Every Saturday
Time: 8am - 2pm
If you would like to donate your time to this event, please contact Kathleen Frampton at firstname.lastname@example.com.
The Foster Youth Mentor Program provides mentors to youth ages 6-18 in the San Diego County Foster Care system. These children are in foster care for a variety of reasons, including abuse and neglect. Because of the disruption in their lives and the loss of support networks, foster youth need caring, supportive adults to guide and role model them. A volunteer mentor can be a significant help for a foster youth by being a consistent person in the child's life.
Volunteer Details: Must be at least 18 years old with clean criminal background and driving record.
Date: Ongoing
Time: 2 hours / week; 1 year commitment
If you would like to donate your time to this event, please contact the FYMP Line at (619) 767-5211.
The San Diego River Park Foundation works to restore the San Diego back to a healthy waterway and creating the San Diego River Park and Trail System. We have a great variety of volunteer opportunities and host up to 12 events each month including river cleanups, community park and gardens programs, water quality monitoring and community based habitat restoration activities. All tools and supplies are provided. Service hours can be verified. Groups of all sizes welcomed with RSVP.
Volunteer Details
Date: Every Weekend and the 1st and 3rd Wednesdays of each month
Time: 9am - 12pm
For a complete list of ways to for you to get involved visit www.volunteerinsandiego.org. If you would like to donate your time to one of these events, please contact Richard Dhu-- 619.297.7380 ---email@example.com
Pro Kids is a nonprofit in San Diego that seeks to challenge and empower underserved youth to excel in life by promoting character development, life skills, and values through education and the game of golf.
Pro Kids is in search of dedicated and committed volunteers who want to make a difference in the lives of underrepresented youth in the City Heights community by tutoring students ages 7-17. Volunteers not only play a vital role in helping students improve academically, but also serve as role models and mentors, and facilitate educational games and activities with students.
Volunteer Details
Date: Ongoing
Time: Monday, Tuesday, Thursday and Friday from 3:00pm - 5:00pm;
Wednesday from 1:30pm - 5:00pm
If you would like to donate your time to this organization, please contact Felipe Salazar at (619) 582-7884 x 118 or at firstname.lastname@example.com.
We are a 501(c)(3) public benefit non-profit California Corporation, dedicated to providing music, math, science education and a community choir for the children and youth of southeast San Diego and surrounding areas.
The SDYAMA Choir is composed up of young men and women ages 5-17 years. They perform regularly around the San Diego area. As a part of the choir, each member is required to take music lessons in addition to singing in the choir.
The SDYAMA program includes both math and science tutoring to further prepare the young men and women for higher learning and personal enrichment.
Volunteer details: Support BI-LINGUAL SPANISH/ ENGLISH ADMINISTRATIVE ASSISTANT:
Office work, translates all media, orientate Hispanic students for class, phone calls to Hispanic speaking students, and tutor Hispanic students in music lessons.
Date: Ongoing
Time: Tuesday - Saturday (flixible)
If you would like to donate your time to support our music program, please contact (George, Robbie Hill or Renea Flenoid) at 619-264-2220 / 619-246-7144 or firstname.lastname@example.com.
SAY San Diego is a local nonprofit organization dedicated to supporting the positive development of young people, their families and communities in San Diego County. SAY's primary services include: delinquency prevention and juvenile diversion, extended day before and after school programs, family support and development, health promotion, community development and collaboration, school readiness and support, child abuse prevention, alcohol, tobacco and drug abuse prevention, and mental health.
Want to have a blast while making a difference? Volunteer with SAY's After School Program today! Volunteers are needed to help with homework time, arts and crafts projects, and activities and recreation. Sharing an interest or talent of your own is also appreciated! Our after school programs operate at various elementary and middle schools throughout San Diego. A 4 month commitment is needed. This is a wonderfully rewarding opportunity!
Volunteer Details
Date: Ongoing, 4 month commitment
Time: Flexible
If you would like to donate your time to this event, please contact Marion Liszkowski, the volunteer coordinator, at firstname.lastname@example.com or at 858-565-4148 ext. 261.
Southern Sudanese Community is non-profit organization with 501c3 service refugee and immigrant from South Sudan as well as other refugee in area of health , Employment, Education that include after school program tutoring, ESL for adult, and others. Currently we look for volunteers in the following areas in Grant writer, fundraising and marketing, and volunteer coordinator.
We looking for volunteers to help do fundraising for the programs in the community activities
Volunteer Details
Date: Ongoing
Time: Flexible
If you would like to donate your time to this event, please visit our website at www.ssccsd.org .
STAR/PAL (Sports Training, Academics, Recreation /Police Athletic League) is a nonprofit organization that offers free educational, athletic, and recreational programs which focus on promoting youth safety, positive life choices, and academic success. STAR/PAL program directors are officers from the San Diego Police & County Probation Departments. These dedicated officers coordinate unique programs for underserved youth, with the assistance of additional law enforcement and community volunteers.
STAR/PAL is looking for volunteers who want to make a difference in the life of a youth. By being a positive role model and helping students reach academic success through tutoring you can make that difference.
Volunteer Details
Date: Ongoing
Time: Monday- Thursday 2:30pm- 6:30pm
If you would like to donate your time to this organization, please contact Aalke Heuvelman at 619-533-5794 or email@example.com
The Museum is a non-profit organization founded to provide a world class historical, technological, educational, and entertainment facility devoted to America's rich naval aviation heritage. It plays host to thousands of visitors a day, many of them from the surrounding community. After it was first launched and commissioned in 1945, the aircraft carrier USS Midway (CV-41) navigated the globe in the service of freedom for 47 years until it was decommissioned at San Diego in 1992 and retired to Bremerton, Washington.
In 1993, efforts were begun to achieve the vision of Alan Uke to see the USS Midway serving again – this time as a museum. That dream was realized 11 years later when the USS Midway was towed back to San Diego and officially opened on June 7, 2004. Midway volunteers are an integral part of the effort to fulfill the mission of the museum.
Volunteer Details
Ship's Restoration: Revitalizing selected areas of the Midway and transforming compartments and work spaces to authentic representations of "the way life was" aboard Midway are the responsibilities of Ship Restoration. Each area is researched to achieve authenticity and is revitalized accordingly. The museum's restoration volunteer force provides much of this effort, beginning with dirty clean-ups and ending in authentic area restorations and realistic reproductions.
Transcriber: Working with the ship's historian, in the exhibits department, transcribers watch oral history videos (mostly WWII vets interviews) and transcribe the dialogue into a word document on the computer. Completed files will be a valuable resource for researchers and reference, and possible exhibit content.
Exhibit Maintainers: Maintain existing exhibits with specialty techniques and fine detail. Candidates will have good manual dexterity, an ability to climb ship's ladders and an eye for detail.
Date: Daily
Time: Various shifts
If you would like to donate your time to this event, please visit the museum website at www.midway.org to download and complete an application. For more information, please contact Laurie Switzer at (619) 398-8222.
Voices for Children advocates for foster youth through a network of trained volunteers who are empowered by the court to become experts about their case children. By developing a one-on-one relationship with their appointed child they are able to understand their concerns and fears, and in many instances they are the only stable and consistent adult presence in the life of a foster child. Much more than just a mentor, volunteers also make recommendations to the court on the best course of action for the child.
CASAs visit their case child about twice a month and monitor how they are doing in their placement, in school and find out what the child needs. They also gather information from professionals assigned to the case, such as social workers and attorneys. CASAs bring information to the judge on hearing days (about every 6 months) and recommend what they feel is best for the child.
Volunteers must be at least 21, have a valid CADL and be able to pass a background check.
Volunteer Details
Date: Ongoing
Time: 15 hours a month for a minimum of 18 months.
Information Sessions are held monthly. Go to www.speakupnow.org for details and to submit an application. Call 858-598-2235 or e-mail firstname.lastname@example.com to become a child advocate today.
If your non-profit organization would like to post a community service opportunity on this site, please fill out the "community service opportunity posting " document on the Forms tab.
Aztec Nights - National Day of Service
Many student organizations are created solely for the purpose of community service. With over 150 different groups to choose, you are bound to find something related to your interests. Making friends while serving the community has never been easier!
Long-term service opportunities by local businesses and organizations are often posted on the SDSU Career Service Website Aztec Career Connections. Under the job postings tab, search position type: Volunteer.
The purpose of this program is to increase awareness among SDSU students of the relationship between student behavior and the quality of life on campus and in the neighborhoods surrounding the SDSU campus. Interested in doing a clean-up right next to campus? Contact GNP for guidance and complimentary bags.
KPBS is always looking for volunteers to take calls during on-air membership pledge campaigns, but also occasionally use volunteers for outreach initiatives, special events and other activities.
SDSU's seven academic colleges have a student run governing body that meets throughout the semester and provide an opportunity for involvement in student advocacy as well as extracurricular activities and programs, including community service.
The non-profit community organizations listed below offer volunteer opportunities throughout the year. Please note that the links provided take you to the community organization's respective website that is not affiliated with SDSU. We are not endorsing these websites, the community organization they represent, or any views expressed within, but simply provide the links as a courtesy for students interested in finding community service and volunteer work.
If you would like to identify your non profit community organization as offering community service/volunteering opportunities, please e-mail the organization's name, website address, contact information, and a description of your organization (including mission and populations served) to firstname.lastname@example.com. All requests are subject to review and approval prior to posting.
For PDF files, download Adobe Acrobat Reader if needed.


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The Honda Fit is a hatchback that has so much interior space that it approaches small wagon status. Heck, if Honda's little B-Segment five door were just a bit longer or if its backlight were a little bit more vertical, we'd say it was a wagon. According to a report on Carscoop a vehicle with just such a description may be on the way, as an alleged leaked brochure of a Japanese market model suggests that the Fit has been stretched for even more cargo room.
Aesthetically, the JDM Fit Shuttle seen above clearly has about a foot more glass beyond the hatchback's C-Pillar, which should translate to quite a few more cubes of space. To pull that extra cargo, the brochure suggests that the Fit wagon will make do with the same 1.5-liter four-cylinder and 1.3-liter IMA hybrid that the folks in Japan already know and love. And if the brochure is legit, then the Shuttle is well on its way, at least in Japan, with a release date of March, 2011.
Will we see a Fit wagon here in the States? We have no idea, but at the same time, we're not very hopeful. After all, Honda still hasn't blessed us with the Fit hybrid, and as much as we'd like to see it in the States, we would need some convincing to believe that such a model would be a sales success in the U.S.
[Source: Carscoop]

subset: commoncrawl


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Recipients of Your Generosity
Brian Dimetres' Cedars Sinai TreatmentApr 12, 2014 No Comments ›› admin
In 2007 Brian was diagnosed with a brain tumor in his right temporal lobe. After recovering from surgery, he carried on with resilient optimism. He and Stephanie married in 2010 and were moving forward with their careers. Then in 2012 he suffered a grand mal seizure and the doctors found a 2nd tumor and operated ...Continue Reading
Rockaway Relief, 2013Sep 9, 2013 No Comments ›› admin
Rockaway Relief, 2013 – Hurricane Sandy Relief – Rockaway, NY – Working in conjunction with Friends of Rockaway, an all volunteer organization on the ground in the Rockaways, Giants of Generosity was contacted by Michael Sinensky, founder of Friends of Rockaway shortly after the storm's devastation. Michael's family home was severely damaged by the surge ...Continue Reading
Patrick W.Sep 8, 2013 No Comments ›› admin
Patrick was driving home from a friend's when he was hit head-on at 60 miles an hour on Rt. 287 in Mahwah, NJ. A young man entered the divided highway, going the wrong way, hitting Patrick's car, driver to driver. Patrick suffered severe injuries to his lower extremities, and was air-lifted to Hackensack Medical Center. ...Continue Reading
Andy P.Sep 7, 2013 No Comments ›› admin
While on vacation, Andy sustained critical, life threatening injuries when his snowmobile unexpectedly projected forward hitting a solid object at great speed. Andy was transported to a trauma center in Bangor, Maine where he stayed in a coma for approximately two months. Andy's wife passed away a few years prior to the accident and he ...Continue Reading


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It's that most delicious time of the year: Good Earth Coffeehouse and Bakery is once again selling packages of gingerbread cookies to help out Habitat for Humanity Southern Alberta. Until Jan. 3, $1 from the sale of each gingerbread … Continue reading
habitat for humanity RSS
Making Monday Better: gingerbread cookies from Calgary's Good Earth are benefiting Habitat for Humanity Southern Alberta
Making Monday better by celebrating the true meaning of home
It's something many of us likely take for granted – a safe and happy place to call home. And that's why grade four, five and six students across Canada are being asked to think about the meaning of home for … Continue reading


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Hall Upholstery
Hall Upholstery of San Leandro, California.
Cars Upholstered by Hall Upholstery
Frank Rose's 1927 Ford Model-T Roadster
Jim Sanders' 1949 Ford Convertible
Warren Gonzales' 1950 Ford Convertible
Ron Fagundes' 1952 Ford Victoria - The Ronbardue Kart
Jeano Lacoste's 1953 Mercury
Cars Featuring a Hall Upholstery Padded Top
Pete Perata's 1935 Ford
George Barris' 1936 Ford Convertible
Vern Simon's 1936 Ford Roadster
Bud Schaffnit's 1937 Cord
John Sal Cocciola's 1938 Chevrolet Convertible
Harold Ohanesian's 1940 Mercury
Pierre Paul's 1941 Buick
Harry Costa's 1941 Ford Convertible
Al Lauer's 1941 Cadillac Convertible
Frank Winfield's 1941 Plymouth
Alvin Serpa's 1946 Ford
Tony Sestito's 1947 Cadillac Convertible
Butler Rugard's 1947 Chevrolet
Jerry Fassett's 1947 Chevrolet
Benny Furtado's 1948 Ford
Warren Gonzales' 1950 Ford Convertible
Tag your Instagram photos with #kustomrama to have them appear in this live-feed.
Additional Information, Feedback or Corrections
if you have additional information, feedback, corrections or photos of Hall Upholstery to share, please send us an email at: firstname.lastname@example.com so we can add it to this page.


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Silverwood Theme Park Now Open on Weekends!
Silverwood Theme Park is now open on the weekends and will be open every day starting May 27th!
We are giving away four tickets and a $50 gas card to get you there EVERY MONTH through September!
Send us a "Roller Coaster Photo" to keyw.com. Every month we'll pick a random winner.
If you don't have a p


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I am reading and seeing a lot of posts on various FB weather pages and weather forms (American wx for one) regarding o the strong signals from some of the weather models that the Arctic Oscillation ( AO) is about to turn severely negative. And in doing so this means there is a high probability that December 2012 …at some point …is likely to turn much colder which is what happened in December of 2009.
Or so the argument goes.
This is one of my pet peeves with regarding forecasting by Teleconnection or specific climate /weather patterns. You simply cannot look at ONE particular Teleconnection or weather pattern and develop a long range / seasonal forecast or even monthly forecast. The atmosphere does NOT work based upon ONE particular atmospheric pattern . It does not matter if the one particular atmospheric pattern or Teleconnection ..such as the AO or NAO… or PNA… or EPO.. etc etc … is powerful and dominant. There are other things that one MUST take into consideration and fit all the different aspects of the atmosphere and "mesh" them into a coherent pattern.
But because so many do not GRASP this … when they see a model develop a very strong signal for particular atmospheric pattern or Teleconnection… they make the decision that such and such is likely to happen. The misplacement and over for emphasis on some of these atmospheric teleconnections can lead to some serious screw ups. One of the more common misunderstandings with these atmospheric patterns are Teleconnections has to do with the Arctic Oscillation (AO). In fact all of these to various important large scale weather patterns have a certain subtleties which must be taken into consideration but with the Arctic Oscillation … there is an awful lot of misunderstanding regarding its importance.
Don't misunderstand me. I am NOT at all saying there the phase of AO is not important in figuring out long range weather patterns for several weeks or for next month. But you must look at the AO with other atmospheric patterns. Yet for some reason there are an awful lot of forecasters and weather hobbyists out there that get awfully excited when they see a weather Model TANK the AO into severely negative values.
For example this is the latest CPC GFS Ensemble forecast for the AO as of November 24. As you can see there are 4 plots and all of them show the AO moving steadily and strongly into negative territory by December 1 and continuing into negative territory by the middle of December.
Or if you want to look at it another way …here is the regular or operational GFS from Saturday evening– the 18z RUN which shows a severe if not historic drop in the AO.
And if you don't want to look at just the operational GFS this next image shows you the GFS ensemble mean plots. Not surprisingly there not as severe has the operational GFS but they do show a prolonged and persistent interval of a strongly negative AO feature.
So of course it only makes sense to forecast a colder and potentially stormy are pattern for the central and eastern U.S. as you move towards the middle of of December 2012… right ?
NO!!!!!!!!!!!!!! It does not and let me explain why.
In my winter forecast and especially in the final winter forecast which I issued last week,,, I pointed out in the Winters of 2009-10 and in 2010-11 that it was the conjunction of both the AO and NAO operating at the same phase and both severely negative which is what help produce the stormy in cold pattern
There is gross misunderstanding that simply because the Arctic Oscillation has gone negative that it follows that
1) the NAO has also turned negative
2) or that it has to turn negative…
3) that the overall pattern is now a much colder and stormy are one for the central and eastern US. None of this is remotely true.
There are numerous cases of the Arctic Oscillation turning negative but the cold pattern sets up over the Pacific… or say Western Canada …or Europe or Central Russia for example. Of course .. as I stated above… if you have BOTH the -AO and -NAO at the same time and with roughly same intensity… then the overall pattern over the central and eastern U.S. does favor below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation.
Let's take a look at some of the weather models as we move into early December and we can see there a lot of other very important features to consider besides a strongly -AO. This next image shows comparison between the operational European model at DAY 9 on the left side and the operational GFS model on the right side. We can see several very important features but the most dominating one happens to be the BERING SEA OMEGA RIDGE . (for those of you that do not know the Bering Sea is the body of war to the separates Alaska and far eastern Siberia). It is this feature which has been persistent now for about two weeks which is the dominating or driving feature across the western hemisphere and not the AO. The placement of the OMEGA RIDGE over the Bering sea means that you have to by definition have a trough in the jet stream over Alaska and Northwest Canada. That trough constitutes a POSITIVE PHASE of the EPO and therefore -PNA pattern ( West coast Trough in the Jet stream).
Remembering our basic high school physics for reaction as an equal and opposite reaction…. So the place another trough in the jet stream on the West Coast means the atmosphere HAS to counter it by developing a RIDGE over the eastern U.S. A pattern like this allows for the buildup of a lot of very cold air over western and Central Canada but there is simply no mechanism or path for that cold air to come into the U.S. east the Rockies. In addition I have highlighted three other important LARGE upper Lows or vortices in the Jet stream. #1 is the Siberian PV polar vortex)… #2 id the Northeast Canada PV AND #3 is a large and persistent upper low which develops over western and Central Europe including the United Kingdom.
The three positions of these large vortexes constitutes a three wave pattern… which is a rather stable pattern…. and not one which is likely to change anytime soon.
In this next image we can see the Day 10 European ensembles on the LEFT and the Day 10 GFS ensemble on the right. As you can see the models are in strong agreement in the first week of December as to how the overall pattern is going to develop. There is simply no mechanism for delivering cold air into the country east the rocky mountains during the first week or two weeks of December… and possibly throughout most of the month.
This is the latest November 24 CFS Model runb….( 16 CFS runs each day going back over the last 10 days) . The map on the left hand side represents precipitation…. and we can notice of a lot of rather dry conditions over Texas the Gulf coast and up into the Middle Atlantic region and above normal precipitation over the Midwest and on the West Coast. This sort of dryness is symptomatic of a model showing a strong ridge over the southeast states.
The map on the right hand side see it shows a pretty warm December for much of the country but especially between the Rockies and the Appalachians.
Indeed the new 10 day group of CFS ensemble mean show a very mild December for most of the country. There probably is some skepticism with regard to this much warmer December CFS Model runs… Especially given the development of a strongly negative AO. But as I showed above …it is quite possible to have a-AO and still have a Mild pattern over the central and eastern US
In order to get this pattern to change the strong OMEGA Ridge in the Jet stream over the Bering sea HAS to move to move.. HAS to. In doing so it will force the EPO to switch from +EPO to -EPO… and that in turn will allow for a strong west coast Ridge ( -PNA to +PNA) which sets up a much colder pattern and allows the trough to form of the eastern U.S.
There is some new information which of come out recently since I issued the final winter forecast which I believe is significant because it shows that continue trend in the CFS Model for a colder DEC and JAN east the Mississippi River.
This first image consist of three maps all focusing on December of 2012. The first two of these maps have already been posted in the FINAL WINTER FORECAST … But since then the updated version has come out . Normally I would not make a a big stink about this new run of the CFS…..
But the changes here in the December and January are pretty significant especially if you look over the last 30 days.
And remember each one of these maps covers a 10 day period. The first interval or 10 days was from middle of OCT…. the SECOND 10 day period 3-11 NOVEMBER.. and this most recent update covers 12-21 NOV.
Here are the DECEMBER CFS temperature forecasts over these last three 10 day periods. The trend it should be obvious and quite clear that since the middle of October the CFS has been turning colder and colder.
Now remember the CFS ten day mean average is NOT simply one model that is run on one particular day. The CFS consists of 4 runs EACH day … for 10 days for a 40 member ensemble.
looking at JANUARY 2013… we continue to see the same trend with each new 10 day increments of time and each new 10 day period showing temperatures turning colder and colder east the Mississippi River. The trend here in both months are quite noticeable and I believe to be consistent and significant.
Next I have presented the mean pattern being forecasted by the Chinese climate model for the northern hemisphere for December January February. Posting this map may draw some cynical comments and derogatory reaction but rest assured that individuals make such comments are the actual idiots.
We all know that there are weather models out there which are generally superior to the operational GFS and the GFS ensemble. It would follow that there are climate models out there which are superior to the GFS. One of them happens to be besides the European model is the Chinese climate model. The Chinese climate model did a remarkable job with the drought during the summer. I have no idea if the models correct are not with its winter forecast but it shows a pretty impressive pattern for the East Coast. In fact if the Chinese models correct this would be a historic winter for most of the East Coast as well as the Tennessee Valley and the lower Midwest.
Also here in case you missed it is the latest upper air forecast for week three and week four from NOV 22 CFS . What is significant here is that it continues to show that the first half of December is NOT going to feature Below Normal temperatures and it does NOT look very stormy for most of the country. I said this back in my initial winter forecast and I don't see any reason to change it.
However by week 3 DEC 6-12 we see a very strong blocking feature over North Central Canada which really counts as a extremely slow large -NAO. The week 3 pattern is actually one of those rare instances where even though the NAO is large and strong … Temperatures do not show a cold pattern. The problem is that we continue to see that trough over Alaska. That feature which in the weather business is called a positive phase of the EPO (+EPO) is forcing a trough over the far eastern Pacific and along the West Coast of North America….. or a -PNA pattern. As a result the cause of the -NAO block over North Central Canada is so large… the interaction between this feature and the -PNA means that there's no cold air flow coming into the U.S. As result temperatures dec 6-12 will be pretty mild for most of the country east the Rockies.
However by week 4… the +EPO is gone… and replacing it is a -EPO feature… which means a strong West Coast Risgw extending all way up into Northwest Canada. The expansion of this RIDGE over Northwest Canada means that the-NAO Hass to be pushed to the east a little so it moves into the more classic position over North America— between Labrador and Greenland. This setup +PNA and -NAO and a -AO is very favorable for significant East Coast or eastern U.S. winter storm to develop in mid December. The dark green areas shows the huge trough over the northeast quadrant of the country. Of course at this point in time it's impossible to say as to whether not this is a Great Lakes or New England Low or a true East Coast storm
2000 Hours EST 18 NOV 2012…. STARDATE 201211.18
Most of the time when you are making the final Winter forecast …the months of October and November usually are not very active with respect to significant weather events. But as wel all know .. that has not been the case in 2012 with event of hurricane Sandy. This was followed shortly by the early November 7 nor'easter which bought significant snow to New Jersey New York City Connecticut and Long Island… and then now we have to deal with the ocean Low which is going to pass off the East Coast NOV 19-20.
This particular updated forecast will focus on several key aspects of the last 45 days in an attempt to figure out what the winter of 2012–13 is going be like. We'll talk about
I suppose the first general question that has to be addressed is the concern that the events of late October and early November on the East Coast— specifically the historic event of hurricane sandy hitting the New Jersey Coast and the winter storm of November 7 — and whether those 2 events "mean" anything with respect to the upcoming winter. The basic answer is that the actual storms do not t mean anything one way or the other but the pattern which developed these particular events does have implications.
For example last year…on 28-29 October 2011 …there was a early season historic nor'easter which produced heavy snow over the interior portions of New Jersey southeastern New York and Connecticut into western and Central Massachusetts. It caused serious destruction of damage to the power infrastructure in CT. Since many of the forecasts– both with NWS/ CPC and many private sector – going into that winter of 2011-12 called for a another active cold and /or snowy winter in the eastern U.S…. the general perception or belief was that …."if this is what the pattern is producing in late October of 2011 imagine what the winter is going to be like !!…".
Yet as we all know the winter of 2011-12 was exceptionally mild and had very few significant winter storms anywhere the country but especially east the Rockies and East of the Mississippi River. On the other hand there have been Summer and Autumn patterns …such as the Hurricane season of 1995 which featured several significant East Coast hurricanes and noreasters in August Sept and Oct of 1995. Yet the pattern never shifted as we went into Winter of 1995-96 which produced several major East Coast snowstorms including the great January blizzard of 1996.
Over the past 20 years has been a lot of research done in various climate and meteorological periodicals which are shown in that autumn patterns do have a connection to the upcoming winter provided the autumn pattern is consistent and produces the same type of events. In other words the historic of 28 October 2011 inland snowstorm over the Northeast US was NOT part of a sustained Autumn pattern but a anomaly. Most of that autumn was warm and dry and the winter that followed was very much the same.
Keep in mind that the Spring and Summer of 2012 was exceptionally hot and dry over much of the country. It's hard to remember that given what we seen in October and early NOV 2012. That dramatically shows how vastly different the overall pattern has turned.
Remember that the atmospheric PATTERNS are what drives the weather. It determines where LOWs will track… where the nice weather patterns are going to occur …where the cold air is going to move.. etc Weather models are supposed to reflect what's going on in the atmosphere. They do not determine where weather systems actually move or develop. A Low pressure area over . Louisiana does not "DECIDE" to move to Chicago or New York City because of a weather model. Weather features are not people and there is no decision-making process involved.
Far and away the two most important weather features or patterns which exist over the western hemisphere in determining the winter and the overall winter pattern has to do with the Arctic oscillation (AO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). If you are not a weather not or hobbyist or meteorologist you may have heard of these terms used occasionally before but not know what these terms refer to. So let me briefly explain.
There are several distinct and noticeable weather patterns which developed in the upper levels of the atmosphere over the northern and southern hemisphere which tend to move in repeating cycles. These various Jet stream patterns in certain positions or certain "phases" produce weather patterns at the surface which will support a warm pattern …or a stormy pattern …or a cold pattern …or a wet pattern.. or some combination thereof. A good analogy might be to consider mountains or mountain ranges. We all know there are several different types of mountains and mountain ranges but no two of them or are exactly the same. But they all have the same general shape.
THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION .. or the AO
The Arctic Oscillation (AO) is one of the special and very important features which exists in the jet stream throughout the entire year. It has two distinct phases a POSITIVE phase and a NEGATIVE phase. These phases may vary in intensity ( weakly positive for example) but the important concept here to grasp is that when the AO is in one particular phase it strongly favors a certain type the weather pattern over North America and especially over Eastern North America including the U.S.. When the AO is in a different phase it has a equally strong impact on the weather patterns over Eastern North America but in a different way.
This image will show us how and why the Arctic Oscillation works and what it looks like. When there is a large area very cold air mass in the jet stream over the arctic regions — which shows up on the Jet stream map as having a big LOW over or North of the Arctic circle — the AO is said to be in the positive phase. The +AO keeps all the cold air bottled up over the arctic region and does not allow for large scale arctic outbreaks to occur either in Europe or in North America. This was exactly the case last winter which is why we had no significant colder outbreaks.
On the other hand when the AO is in the negative phase... which on the weather maps of the Jet Stream will come across as weak or small areas of Low pressure over the Arctic circle or sometimes a blocking pattern– it is much easier for large cold air masses to move out of the arctic regions into Europe and North America. This was exactly the case in the historic winters of 2009-10 and 2010-11.
This next image shows how this typically works. The two maps correspond to the different AO phases and it's pretty self explanatory as these maps go. When you have a negative AO (the map on the left hand side) temperatures run Above Normal –relatively speaking of course — over the arctic region and especially over Eastern Canada and Greenland. And temperatures run below normal over the Midwest and the East Coast. When you have a negative AO (the map on the RIGHT hand side) shows exact opposite weather pattern . As you can clearly see the arctic regions are colder than normal and Central Russia is also much colder than normal …. while Eastern Canada central and eastern areas of the USA are much warmer than normal during the winter months.
However that being said simply having a negative or positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation doesn't get us very far in figuring out weather patterns. It is quite possible that when the AO is Negative that the arctic cold air coming out of the arctic region goes into Europe but not into Canada or the U.S. So there of the things we have to take into consideration.
THE NAO– North Atlantic Oscillation
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is one of the special and very important features which exists in the jet stream throughout the entire year. It has two distinct phases –a POSITIVE phase and a NEGATIVE phase. These phases may vary in intensity ( weakly positive for example) but the important concept here to grasp is that when the NAO is in one particular phase it strongly favors a certain type the weather pattern over North America and especially over Eastern North America including the U.S.. When the NAO is in a different phase it has a equally strong impact on the weather patterns over Eastern North America but in a different way.
This image will explain our show how and why NAO is so important and the impact it has on weather patterns over North America in general and especially over the central and eastern U.S. during the cold season months. The diagram is pretty self explanatory but in a nutshell +NAO means a much reduced chance of saying any sort of significant colder outbreaks over the central and eastern U.S. and a much reduced chance of saying any sort of significant winter storm activity. When the NAO is in the Negative Phase… the odds significantly favor a colder than normal pattern with the potential for a significant cold air or arctic air outbreak… and the potential for some sort of significant East Coast or activity. Of course all of that is assuming that there is some sort of Low Pressure that is coming east. (In other words…. +NAO or – NAO do not produce winter storms or mild weather patterns by themselves.
The winter of 2011-12 featured a extremely positive NAO through almost the entire winter. In fact the OCT 2011 and NOV 2011 readings for the NAO were among the strongest ever seen. On the other hand OCT 2009 and OCT 2010 featured widespread persistently negative NAO which was also among the strongest ever seen. And we know that the winter is that followed.. 2009-10 and 2010-11 were quite snowy and cold).
These two particular Jet stream patterns … the AO and the NAO… give us several different possible combinations which forecasters MUST take into consideration in making the seasonal forecast …or even a forecast for the next 2 or 3 weeks. This image will show you the possible combinations that knowledgeable meteorologist and experience whether hobbyists are familiar with.
Let's take a look at how the combination of the AO and the NAO often worked together and produce significant weather pattern or events for the eastern US.
This next chart shows us the NAO and the AO since August 1. I have highlighted some important features in order to ease the understanding of this significant chart.
The first thing that stands out is that for the most part the NAO and the AO have been synchronous or moving in this same general direction. This has not always been the case. Back during the snow-less or nearly snow-less winters of the 1980s and early 1990s… The charts back then show that the NAO and AO were not moving in the same direction and trends.
The first green box / rectangle shows the Heat wave breaking in early and mid August. Throughout most of APRIL MAY JUNE and JULY 2012 ….the NAO and AO were both strongly positive. However things began to change in early August which resulted when the NAO and the AO both turned sharply negative after AUG 4. Not surprisingly this is exactly when the heat wave broke and the first significant rains appeared over the Midwest.
The next green box is in early and mid September where again the NAO and AO both turned negative. And if you go back and take a look of surface weather maps you will see that in early and mid September we had our first significant blast of Autumn air over the central and eastern US .
However the third and largest green box that I have highlighted shows the prolonged and sustained negative NAO and negative AO which began in early October and reached a peak in the last week of October…. which is exactly when hurricane Sandy made its left turn and crashed into as southern NJ coast. There was a secondary drop in early November which is when Noreaster of NOV 7.
But this is not just the case for this particular autumn. If we go back and take a look of the last several winters we will also see that the severe and snowy winters of 2009-10 and the active snowy winters of 2010-11 featured sustained prolonged intervals of -AO and -NAO.
This image shows the AO and the NAO from the historic eastern U.S. winter winter of 2009-10. Notice that the Arctic Oscillation turned negative and strongly negative in October of 2009 then a briefly went towards positive in November and flipped two extremely negative during the heart of the winter. In fact the AO was the most negative EVER recorded during the heart of the winter months. The NAO was not nearly as strong but persistently negative during the heart of the winter months.
The result was a severe and historic winter for the East Coast.
This next image shows the following winter… 2010-11. Again notice that both the AO and the NAO in October of 2011 dropped moderately negative .. and the AO turned weekly positive during a good portion of November. But once we moved into the winter months both the AO and the NAO were consistently and strongly negative the the heart of the entire winter… up to early / Mid February of 2012.
Finally let us compare LAST WINTER… 2011-12 which as we all know featured very mild temperatures for all of the country east of the Rocky mountains to the East coast and very little snowfall. Throughout the entire Autumn of 2011 the AO and the NAO were strongly positive…. never once dropping into the negative phase. This of course is totally the opposite of what we saw in the previous two examples. Then once the winter of 2011-12 began … Both the AO and the NAO were consist only an strongly positive. As I stated above the AO was at or near record a positive levels.
WHAT ABOUT THIS WINTER ? WHAT WILL THE AO and NAO " DO " THIS WINTER?
As I stated and showed you above… having persistently strong -AO and -NAO in the month of October is a strong signal that the heart of the winter months will experienced large and n persistent prolonged periods of -AO and -NAO jet stream patterns. The October 2012 reading for the Arctic Oscillation was the second strongest on record– only exceeded by the October 2009 arctic oscillation reading! In fact if you look at all the top 10 negative arctic oscillation readings in the month of October… every one of those Winters that followed winter = DEC JAN FEB) featured persistently strong negative Arctic Oscillations.
OK… So the OCT AO strongly favor the AO running negative this upcoming winter. But what about the NAO? Over the past 10 years there has been some really great research done that shows a strong connection between SSTAs — sea surface temperature anomalies — in the North Atlantic during the month of October and forecasting the general trend of the NAO for the upcoming winter. This image clearly shows the connection between what the idealized or textbook example of the SSTA have looked like in the month of October and Winters which featured persistently negative NAO events.
The image is pretty self explanatory but basically there is a certain or specific type / pattern which we look for in the water temperatures over the north Atlantic.
There is often a pool of very warm ocean where temperatures– relative to normal of course– off the New England or Southeast Canada Coast– then a pool of cold water over the central north Atlantic east of Newfoundland — and a pool of warmer than normal sea surface temperatures in the Davis Straits ( the area between Labrador Canada and western Greenland).
This next image shows you what the current sea surface temperature in NOV 2012 look like over the north Atlantic. As of mid November we see a pool of very warm ocean where temperatures — relative to normal– off the New England Coast and Southeast Canada which matches the textbook or schematic of the classic SSTA for the negative NAO. We also see a very warm ocean where temperatures extending up into the Davis Straits. And we also see a pool of cold water in the central north Atlantic .
In other words the current sea surface temperature anomaly maps for mid November in the north Atlantic strongly support a persistently negative NAO for this upcoming winter.
Interestingly if we compare the last three winters we see something important in different with regard to the SSTA and negative NAO. In this next image I am presented the last 3 Middle Novembers SSTA maps. — 17 NOV 2011.. 15 NOV 2010 and 16 NOV 2009 .
The first map clearly shows a very different looking SSTA configuration. Notice in the green circle that there is NO large body of warmer than Normal Sea surface temperature anomalies off the New England or Southeast Canada coasts. In fact the SSTAs temperatures there are colder than normal. This is the exact opposite of the textbook SSTAs diagram shown above that is needed for sustained negative NAO.
However the middle and right map of SSTAs from 15 NOV 2010 and 16 NOV 2009 .. show the exact opposite with classic or nearly textbook set up for sustained negative NAO patterns.
There has been a lot of research done over the past 10 years that shows a very strong connection between above normal snowfall over Siberia and the phase of the Arctic Oscillation. One of the lead researchers in this is Dr. Judah Cohen from AER. The correlation between the October snow cover over Siberia/ Eurasia and the AO is extremely strong … near 0.90. Basically the argument is … and in MY view it has been proven… that above normal snowfall in Siberia / Eurasia in the month of October strongly correlates to the negative phase of the AO. Likewise below normal snowfall over the same area in the month of October strongly correlates to the positive phase of the AO. Pretty simple really. You can read about how strong here… at this link. http://www.nsf.gov/news/special_reports/autumnwinter/model.jsp
But these images will also help show the correlation without getting too technical for some of you.
This next image shows the forecast for the temperatures across northern hemisphere in the winter of 2002-03.
For those of you that arw weather savvy… that winter was a historically significant winter with numerous significant winter storms over the Midwest and the East Coast and large areas of below normal temperatures on a persistent bases. The map of the LEFT side shows the temperature anomalies forecasted for that winter based upon the snow cover in October of 2003 which was much above normal. The map on the RIGHT hand side shows the actual temperature anomalies for the winter. That was a amazing forecast. But that was not a "lucky forecast".
This next image shows the forecast made by Dr Cohen based upon the October 2009 snow cover in Eurasia of which was much above normal. This forecast cover the period from January February and March of 2010. The map of the LEFT hand side shows the forecast temperatures by Dr Cohen for JAN FEB MAR 2010. The map on the RIGHT hand side shows the actual temperature anomalies for JAN FEB MAR 2010. Again this was a exceptional forecast. As we know the Winter of 2009-10 was a historically significant winter with large areas of persistently below normal temperatures and above normal snowfall over the central and eastern US.
This method also works quite well over in Europe. The map of the LEFT was Dr. Cohen's forecast for the temperatures of January February March 2010… again based primarily on the snow cover over Eurasia in October 2009. The map on the RIGHT shows actual temperatures in Europe for the same time frame. That is a stunningly good forecast.
And even more impressive was his forecast for the winter of 2011-12. While many others were calling for another colder than normal winter with significant snowstorm potential for the central and eastern U.S. Dr Cohen looked that the snow total for October 2011 and saw that it was substantially below normal over Eurasia.
This next image is the SNOW COVER from 22 OCT 2011 and we can see that the snowfall was in fact below normal over large portions of Canada and Eurasia
The map on the LEFT hand side shows his forecast for last winter 2011-12… And you can see that Dr Cohen went against the consensus and forecasted an exceptionally mild winter. The map on the RIGHT hand side shows the actual temperature anomalies from last winter. You should be impressed by this forecasting ability.
This chart from FSU shows that during the last 45 days the snow cover has consistently run above normal over the northern hemisphere in general. But that does not tell specifically about Eurasia.
In this image here we can see this total SNOW COVER through November 14, 2012 and this snow appears to be much above normal . This matches the graph and from FSU.
The actual 31 OCTOBER 2012 snow total for Eurasia from the RUTGERS SNOW LAB …is 11.11 squared kilometers. The Rutgers snow Lab has data on snowfall coverage over the northern hemisphere… Eurasia Canada North America Greenland going back 45 years. The MEDIAN value of all these Octobers for SNOW COVER in Eurasia is 9.6 sq KM… the MEAN value is 9.88 sq KM.
Therefore the October 2012 SNOW COVER in Eurasia is much above normal by value of 1.21 square km above normal. This is the 11th snowiest October on record for Eurasia and closely matches the October 2009 value which was 11.28 sq KM. This next image gives us a summary of these facts and the last three winters.
In fact if we go back and time will continue see there is very strong correlation between the SNOW COVER over Eurasia in OCT. This next image shows a list of October Snow cover in Eurasia which preceded historically significant winters over the central and eastern U.S. As you can tell in almost every case where SNOW COVER was substantially above normal over Eurasia in October the following winter featured colder than normal temperatures and /or snowier than normal weather patterns.
Even more interesting is that if you go back and look at the early 1990s and most of the 1980s which featured very mild nearly snow less winters for much of the central and eastern U.S.. we see that on a consistent basis that in every case SNOW COVER was at or below normal in Eurasia during the month of October proceeding that winter. Now to be sure..some of these very low October SNOW COVER readings in Eurasia can be explained due to a extenuating circumstances. For example the October SNOW COVER in Eurasia of 1988 was during a very strong if not the strongest La Nina on record.
During the early 1990s… OCT 1990 OCT 1991 OCT 1992.. SNOW COVER in Eurasia during the October the proceeded those winters was substantially below normal and all three of those years also featured moderate to strong El Nino events. Indeed the period from 1983-84 to 1992-93 or perhaps that at least snowier this record in many of the big cities and the northeast U.S. And not surprisingly during this time frame …as I just showed.. SNOW COVER was substantially below normal in Eurasia in the month of October during that 10 year period.
Another way of looking at the impact of heavy SNOW COVER in Eurasia during the month of October preceding the winter is to look at this table from the Rutgers snow laboratory. This table shows the SNOW COVER for all the Octobers going back to 1967. And the correlation is really quite striking.
SUMMARY: the explosive development of SNOW COVER in Eurasia in October of 2012 is a very strong signal that not only will this winter be vastly different from the previous super mild winter … but is a strong indication that this winter will be close to what we saw on 2009-10. Combined with the very clear signal of a strong and persistent AO and NAO in OCT of 2012…. it is becoming increasingly hard to ignore all of these are strong indications.
Besides the arctic oscillation and the NAO there are several other important weather patterns in the jet stream which can influence the weather patterns over North America. One of them is the PNA– for the Pacific North America pattern.
This features is centered over the eastern Pacific and Western North America and is also strongly dependent upon large areas of Colder than normal or Warmer than Normal Sea surface temperature anomalies. This image explains how and why the PNA pattern works.
There are several different features in the atmosphere which can alter or cause the PNA to shift from positive to negative and backed off to positive again during the course of a winter Spring Summer or Autumn season. One of those features is the MJO… but another will feature which has to be taken into consideration are the SSTAs – sea surface temperature anomalies over the far eastern Pacific from Alaska down to Baja California
Over the past three years there has been a large and persistent pool of very cold ocean water temperature anomalies located in the eastern Pacific from Alaska down to Baja California. This large persistent pool of colder than normal ward temperatures as persistently favored ( which is called the cold Phase of negative of the PDO) has persistently favored a -PNA pattern.
We can see this persistent large pool of cold water here
During the winter months of 2009-10 and 2010-11– as I showed above — there was widespread high latitude blocking with strong persistent negative phases of the AO and NAO. As a result the -PNA did not cause a strong ridge to form over the eastern US and a winter stay persistently cold and stormy. However during the winter of 2011-12 the AO and NAO were persistently and strongly positive. As a result the -PNA pattern on the West Coast of North America did in fact produce a large and strong Ridge in the jet stream during the winter … and during the Spring and Summer of 2012. In fact this was one of the primary reasons WHY the Spring and Summer was so intensely hot and dry.
However if we look at the current mid November SSTA map we see that the ocean water temperature patterns over the eastern Pacific has changed considerably. There is no longer a massive pool of very cold sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific along the West Coast of North America.
THIS MEANS .. That the winter of 2012-13 could see +PNA patterns develop which would allow for serious and possibly severe arctic air masses to invade the central and eastern half of North America including the US.
This Jetstream configuration is often overlooked by many but it sometimes can be significant especially if it is in a particular phase for prolonged period of time.
The POSITIVE phase of the WPO features a Upper Low in the jet stream over the Bering sea / far eastern Siberia and a ridge over the central north Pacific. This is exactly what we saw last winter. The NEGATIVE phase of the PDO produces just the opposite.. RIDGE over the Bering sea and far eastern Siberia and Low pressure over the central north Pacific. That is the current WPO phase as you can see here.. which is a pretty strong negative and persistent WPO event.
Assuming that the -WPO continues into December which seems a high probability…. The pattern strongly indicates that much of central and eastern portions of the U.S. as well as the Great Lakes and the Northeast will see temperatures run persistently Below Normal during the month of December and probably into January.
In the initial forecast assessment for the upcoming Winter of 2012-13 the which has issued back in the Middle October… I emphasize the point that the current an extremely strong negative phase of the QBO was a bit of a problem with regard to forecasting a cold winter. The research clearly shows that when the QBO is extremely negative ( with values of -20 or lower) going into the winter months… that the statistical correlation clearly favors a mild start to the winter which turns colder in the second half. That is assuming that the -QBO continues to weaken and move towards NEUTRAL in January February and March.
Since then the October reading for the QBO came out on November 3 and it showed some slight weakening but still a very strong negative QBO value -25. The latest data shows that as of mid November the QB oh has begun to weekend at a pretty steady pace and I suspect that on December 3 when the November values for the QBO are released by CPC we will see the QBO make a significant rise from say -25 to something like -14 or -13.
Finally we can take a look at the climate model maps from the CFS. As a general rule there's a lot of skepticism with regard to climate models and the ability to forecast anything correctly. That certainly has been the case with some of the more primitive models but the development and the arrival of the CFS version 2.0 has ended that skepticism. Back in the Spring season of 2012 the model anticipated El Nino conditions to develop and increase and as result … the CFS V2.0 forecasted a wet and cool Summer for the Midwest. However as we now know the El Nino conditions fell apart and the NAO and AO stayed strongly positive The CFS showed a dramatic shift in MAY of 2012 and correctly forecasted the severe outbreak of heat and dry conditions over all the Plains and the Midwest for June July and into early August of 2012.
Even more impressive is that in late July while anybody else was forecasting more extreme heat and dry conditions for August of 2012… the CFS in mid July I forecasted and significant change in the pattern with below normal temperatures and additional rainfall. Again the CFS was correct in showing this change and with the timing as well.
This first image shows us the December forecasts with respect to precipitation amounts. The map of the LEFT side is from the middle of October –specifically from OCT 14-23. As you can see it's forecasting a fairly dry conditions over the Gulf coast and the Northeast and wet conditions over the Pacific Northwest and the entire West Coast. However the map on the RIGHT hand side shows the new forecast from earlier in November… NOV 3-12 to the specific. And it shows dramatically different weather patter which large areas of above and much above normal rainfall over the gulf coast into the Tennessee Valley and slightly above normal over the northeast and along the Pacific Northwest coast and the northern Rockies.
With respect to December 2012 temperatures the CFS model from 14-23 OCT showed a huge areas of much above normal temperatures covering all of the central lower Plains the Deep South into the Midwest and the Ohio Valley. The updated version however from early November shows a much different temperature forecast for DEC 2012. While it is true that in this second map that the Gulf coast and the East Coast are still quite warm … the warmth is not as intense and the CFS now shows a massive pool of very cold air covering all of western and Central Canada.
With respect to January precipitation... the CFS v2.0 in Middle October showed above normal rainfall or precipitation over the Gulf coast into the southeastern states while all other areas in the Conus was pretty much near normal. The November update showed a little more precipitation over the northeast… While Southern California the southwest states were much drier and the Pacific Northwest was wetter.
With respect to January temperatures the October forecast showed near normal temperatures for most of the Midwest and the northeast with slightly above normal temperatures over the gulf coast and the lower Plains… And a large area of below normal temperatures over southwestern Canada. The updated forecast from November from the CVS.. Showed a major expansion of that very cold air mass from southwest Canada into central and South Central Canada and all of Quebec. This is significant because it keeps all of the Midwest and the East Coast in near normal temperatures for January and close proximity of very cold air to the east coast could be significant with regard to snowfall and East Coast winter storms. The CFS also shows above normal temperatures over Texas and the southwest states into Nevada and Utah
With respect to February precipitation… The October version of the CFS showed very dry conditions over California and over the northeast with small areas of above normal rainfall over the Gulf coast and the Great Lakes. Once again however the updated version from early November of the CFS showed a major change. It has all of the deep south into the northeast and the lower Middle Atlantic states saying much above normal precipitation and the Pacific Northwest coastal areas turn drier.
With respect to February temperatures… Once again we see a huge shift in what the CFS models forecasting with regard to temperatures. The Mid OCT run showed a huge area of very warm temperatures covering all portions of the Plains the lower Midwest the entire Deep South and into the Middle Atlantic states. In addition it should be noted that the OCT CFS run showed no area of Canada in below normal temperatures. However the updated November run of the CFS showed a major changes with the new CFS now depicting a large pool of cold air over central and South Central Canada and over Quebec Canada. A very warm temperatures is now completely gone with only Southern Texas and the media gulf coast saying temperatures running slightly above normal while all of the Midwest and the East coast now seas near normal temperatures.
The historic East Coast hurricane sandy in late October and the noreaster on NOV 6-7 that followed are indicative of a significant change the pattern from the warm dry previous winter and the extreme Heat and drought the country experienced throughout the Spring and Summer 2012. Not only has the Arctic oscillation and North American oscillation shifted into persistent negative phase … but research shows that October seems to play a key role in determining the phases of the AO and NAO.
In addition significant changes in the sea surface temperature anomalies have occurred. In the eastern Pacific along the West Coast of North America the huge pool of cold water has dissipated and the new SSTAs configuration now supports +PNA development over Western North America. While we may not see this on a consistent basis I believe there will be some intervals during the heart of the winter into the spring where we will see several bouts of very amplified West Coast Ridging ( +PNA) in the jet stream. This could lead to strong arctic air outbreaks.
The early season development of much above normal snowfall in Eurasia during October is a strong indication that this winter will be much more like the winters of 2009-10 and 2010-11.
When all of these factors are taken into consideration there is no rational reason NOT to be bullish on the upcomcing Winter of 2012-13 over the eastern half of the continent and the U.S. in particular. The only restricting factor that I can see right now… is the very strong and negative QBO cycle which is only now beginning to weaken. The data from CPC that tracks the QBO on a daily basis does show significant weakening over the past two weeks. It is quite possible then that strongly negative QBO will rise to a value -10 or higher during the second half of the winter which would be extremely favorable for above normal snowfall and below normal temperatures over the eastern half of the country.


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