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Marc Faber, Peter Schiff Issue Another Bubble Warning
"I think we are in a gigantic financial asset bubble."
-Marc Faber on Bloomberg Television's Street Smart, January 14, 2014
"We have an entire economy that is supported on a foundation of bubbles."
-Peter Schiff in a MoneyShow Las Vegas presentation, May 12, 2014
These days, the U.S. economic landscape feels a lot like 2007- if you ask me. There's a tremendous amount of bullish sentiment out there from rising asset prices. Likewise, a number of threats are simmering in the economy and larger financial system- as was the situation seven years ago.
And just like in 2007, "crash prophets" Marc Faber and Peter Schiff are again sounding the alarm on asset bubbles.
Remember- while most other financial types were predicting clear sailing ahead back then for the U.S. economy and housing market, Faber and Schiff correctly-forecast the bursting of the U.S. housing bubble and the financial crisis that reared its ugly head by the autumn of 2008.
Peter Schiff, CEO and Chief Global Strategist of Euro Pacific Capital, wrote the following on his company's website Wednesday:
The truth is the Fed knows the economy needs zero percent rates to stay afloat, which is why they have yet to pull the trigger. The last serious Fed campaign to raise interest rates led to the bursting of the housing bubble in 2006 and the financial crisis that followed in 2008. This occurred despite the slow and predictable manner in which the rates were raised, by 25 basis points every six weeks for two years (a kind of reverse tapering). At the time, Greenspan knew that the housing market and the economy had become dependent on low interest rates, and he did not want to deliver a shock to fragile markets with an abrupt normalization. But his measured and gradual approach only added more air to the real estate bubble, producing an even greater crisis than what might have occurred had he tightened more quickly.
The Fed is making an even graver mistake now if it thinks the economy can handle a measured reduction in QE. Similar to Greenspan, Bernanke understood that asset prices and the economy had become dependent on QE, and he hoped that by slowly tapering QE the economy and the markets could withstand the transition. But I believe these bets will lose just as big as Greenspan's. The end of QE will prick the current bubbles in stocks, real estate, and bonds, just as higher rates pricked the housing bubble in 2006. And as was the case with the measured rate hikes, the tapering process will only add to the severity of the inevitable bust…
According to "Doctor Doom" Marc Faber, the extent of the bubbles goes even further than what Schiff identified. Appearing on CNBC's Squawk Box earlier today, the publisher of the monthly investment newsletter The Gloom Boom & Doom Report warned viewers:
Today, the good news is we have a bubble in everything, everywhere- with very few exceptions. And, eventually, there will be a problem when these asset markets begin to perform poorly. The question is- what will be the catalyst? It could be a rise in interest rates not engineered by the Fed, because I think they'll keep interests rates at zero on the Fed funds rate for a very long time… We could have essentially a break in bond markets at some point. We also could have a strong dollar. A strong dollar has already happened in the last two months signifies that international liquidity is tightening. And when that happens, usually it's not very good for asset markets.
By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
(Editor's notes: Info added to "Crash Prophets" page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)
Schiff, Peter. "A New Fed Playbook for the New Normal." Euro Pacific Capital. 17 Sep. 2014. (http://www.europac.net/commentaries/new_fed_playbook_new_normal). 19 Sep. 2014.
Posting Resumes Next Week
I've been tied up with some personal matters the last couple of days, so I haven't been able to blog on Survival And Prosperity as much as I've wanted to.
New posts are scheduled to be published next week starting Sunday.
Have a terrific weekend!
Christopher E. Hill
Marc Faber On Stocks: 'A Rebound Is Underway'
Swiss-born investment advisor and money manager Marc Faber is uncharacteristically bullish these days. "Doctor Doom" told CNBC Squawk Box viewers this morning:
Now, a rebound is underway, in my opinion. But, I doubt we'll make new highs…
In general, I think we've moved into a very low growth environment. And given the inflated asset markets- real estate, equities, and bonds- I think the future returns will be very low.
"Perma-bear Marc Faber: We're seeing a rebound"
CNBC Video
The other week, the publisher of the monthly investment newsletter The Gloom Boom & Doom Report told a CNBC Halftime Report audience:
I rather think that we'll make a peak sometime between the next 30 to 60 days and then go down meaningfully.
If Dr. Faber doubts new highs will be reached in this rebound, did the peak already come and go, somewhat earlier than originally expected?. It kinds of sounds that way.
By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
(Editor's notes: Info added to "Crash Prophets" page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)
Peter Schiff On Direction Of Interest Rates, Housing, And Gold
Last Friday, "crash prophet" Peter Schiff added a new entry to his YouTube video blog- The Schiff Report. The CEO/Chief Global Strategist of Euro Pacific Capital warned viewers that the Federal Reserve is bluffing about raising interest rates. Schiff- who correctly-called the bursting of the housing bubble in addition to the 2008 economic crisis- also touched on the direction of the residential real estate market and gold. On interest rates and housing, he pointed out:
The risk is that the Fed doesn't tighten at all, which is exactly what's going to happen, because they can't tighten. If the Fed actually tightens, the recovery is over. The recovery that is supposedly giving them the confidence to raise rates- it can't exist if they raise rates. In fact, if the Fed could raise rates, they would have already raised them. I mean, it's been over five years. They're still at zero. And they're saying rate hikes are a year way maybe. Why? If the economy is recovering, why can't the Fed raise rates? Because if the Fed raised rates, we'd be right back in recession. Because it's a phony recovery. That's what people have to understand. It's not real. It's only here as long as the Fed can artificially sustain it, which she might. The minute they raise interest rates, that party's over. The stock market's going down. The real estate market's going down.
And by the way, we had a plethora of negative numbers all week for the housing market. You could put a fork in this phony housing recovery, because it's done. The market is going down. Housing prices are heading back down. Housing activity is slowing. I think a lot of layoffs are coming in construction because this market's grinding to a halt…
The Fed is bluffing. This is all bark and no bite. It is impossible for the Fed to raise interest rates. If they could do it, they would have already done it. If they raise interest rates now, they destroy the very recovery that the low interest rates created. The problem is, if it isn't a real recovery, it's phony. If it was real, it wouldn't need the Fed to support it. The only reason it does need the Fed's support is because it's imaginary. It's phony. Because the actual economy is getting worse.
What the Fed is doing to goose the stock market, and the real estate market, to create this phony wealth effect, is undermining legitimate wealth creation. All the money we're borrowing to spend is interfering with legitimate, genuine economic growth. And we're just digging ourselves into a bigger and bigger hole…
The problem is, we're going to have the next recession, and the Fed's still going to be at zero. They're still going to have this bloated balance sheet. And again, it's not that the Fed is never going to raise rates. They're just not going to do it voluntarily. They're not going to do it as a decision. They're not going to do it until they have to. And it's not going to be a strong economy that's going to force them to raise rates. Because I don't care how strong the economic data is- they ain't going to raise rates. And it doesn't matter how bad the inflation data is- they're still not going to raise rates. They're not going to raise rates until the dollar collapses. Until foreigners no longer want to hold the dollar, because they understand the predicament that the Fed is in. They understand that it is QE forever. That it is all just talk. There is no exit strategy. There never was. Because exit is too painful. This is the end game of QE. This is the all in. This is the overdose.
On gold, Schiff predicted:
Janet Yellen is not going to wage war against inflation. She has already surrendered to inflation. It's just that a lot of people haven't figured that out yet. So, because people think that Janet Yellen might raise interest rates sooner rather than later because of inflation, they sold gold. If they knew the truth, that Janet Yellen isn't going to care about the inflation, that's she's just going to let it get worse because she is too afraid to challenge inflation for fear of what it will do to the economy, to the stock market, to the housing market, the job market. So she is going to allow inflation to not only continue, but accelerate. And that is what's good for gold.
"Ending QE is Bad, Not Ending it is Worse"
YouTube Video
By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
(Editor's notes: Info added to "Crash Prophets" page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)
Does Robert Shiller See 'Froth' In U.S. Housing And Stocks?
I first blogged about Robert Shiller, the Yale professor credited with correctly-calling the "dot-com" and housing busts, on Survival And Prosperity way back on December 29, 2010. I wrote:
Back when the housing bubble was fully-inflated, I happened to catch a CNBC special on housing in which Robert Shiller, an economics professor at Yale University and co-creator of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, appeared with a number of individuals tied to the housing industry. When it was Professor Shiller's turn to speak, he warned that there was a bubble in residential real estate.
The other panel members subsequently ripped Shiller a new one.
Subsequently, those panelists were made to look like major asses as the bubble turned into a bust, while Dr. Shiller was vindicated.
So what does Shiller think of the recent run-ups in U.S. stock and housing prices?
You make the call.
From a piece he penned and which appeared on The Guardian (UK) website Tuesday:
We have had only three salient global crises in the last century: 1929-33, 1980-82, and 2007-9. These events appear to be more than just larger versions of the more frequent small fluctuations that we often see, and that Stock and Watson analysed. But, with only three observations, it is hard to understand these events.
All seemed to have something to do with speculative price movements that surprised most observers and were never really explained, even years after the fact. They also had something to do with government policymakers' mistakes. For example, the 1980-82 crisis was triggered by an oil price spike caused by the Iran-Iraq war. But all of them were related to asset-price bubbles that burst, leading to financial collapse.
Those who warn of grave dangers if speculative price increases are allowed to continue unimpeded are right to do so, even if they cannot prove that there is any cause for concern. The warnings might help prevent the booms that we are now seeing from continuing much longer and becoming more dangerous…
(Editor's note: Bold added for emphasis)
Personally, I think Robert Shiller may see the current housing and stock market booms as being "frothy." Consider what I noted back on December 1, 2013- the last time I really brought him up on this blog:
These days, Dr. Shiller is worried about U.S. stocks once more. Madeline Chambers reported on Reuters.com this morning:
An American who won this year's Nobel Prize for economics believes sharp rises in equity and property prices could lead to a dangerous financial bubble and may end badly, he told a German magazine.
Robert Shiller, who won the esteemed award with two other Americans for research into market prices and asset bubbles, pinpointed the U.S. stock market and Brazilian property market as areas of concern.
"I am not yet sounding the alarm. But in many countries stock exchanges are at a high level and prices have risen sharply in some property markets," Shiller told Sunday's Der Spiegel magazine. "That could end badly," he said.
"I am most worried about the boom in the U.S. stock market. Also because our economy is still weak and vulnerable," he said, describing the financial and technology sectors as overvalued.
(Editor's note: Bold added for emphasis)
And now, several months later, as I keep reading/hearing the term "new all-time record" in the financial mainstream media outlets?
Yep. I'd venture to guess he'd say frothy- at the very least.
You can read his entire piece on The Guardian website here.
By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
(Editor's note: I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)
Peter Schiff: 'We Have An Entire Economy That Is Supported On A Foundation Of Bubbles'
Tonight I watched Peter Schiff's presentation at the MoneyShow Las Vegas back on May 12, 2014. The CEO and Chief Global Strategist of Euro Pacific Capital shared his current assessment of the U.S. financial landscape in "Too Big to Bail: Why the Next Financial Crisis Will Be Worse Than the Last"- as well as where he thinks we're heading. Schiff warned attendees:
There is no economic recovery in the United States at all. There is no evidence of an economic recovery. The U.S. economy is in far worse shape than it was on the eve of the 2008 financial crisis. We have never been in as worse shape as we are right now. But they say, "Whoa! But the stock market went up." Yeah, of course the stock market went up. You print enough money, you can make the stock market go up. Yes, the Federal Reserve succeeded in reflating the stock market bubble. But that's all that it did. That isn't evidence of a strong economy. Stock prices went up from 2002 to 2007. Does that mean we had a sound economy? No. We were on the verge of a complete implosion. The main difference though between the stock market bubble that we have today and the one that blew up, let's say, in 2000, is that fewer individuals are participating. This is the bubble for the 1 percent. This is for the hedge funds, the private equity guys… The overwhelming concentration of buyers are very wealthy people. The average American is not participating in the stock market to the extent that he was in the 1990s. And so the Fed is not getting the boost to consumption that you would normally have from the wealth effect because a lot of people aren't feeling the effects of the wealth because they don't own stocks.
The same thing is happening in the real estate bubble, which the Fed has managed to reflate. The difference again between the real estate bubble we have now and the real estate bubble that popped in 2007 is again- the average American isn't participating. Home ownership rates are at 19-year lows. You have hedge funds and private equity companies that are buying up real estate. Last month, I think 43 percent of all the properties purchased in America were purchased for cash. These are not typical Americans buying houses to live in. These are investors buying houses to flip, buying houses to rent out. This is not a healthy market. It is an extremely speculative real estate market thanks to the Federal Reserve.
So the Federal Reserve has managed to reflate two bubbles simultaneously.
And of course, the biggest bubble of them all is the bubble in the bond market.
So we have an entire economy that is supported on a foundation of bubbles…
"Peter Schiff at Las Vegas Moneyshow 2014"
YouTube Video
By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
(Editor's notes: Info added to "Crash Prophets" page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)
Peter Schiff Warns Of Coming Inflation, Accompanying Propaganda
"Crash prophet" Peter Schiff sees inflation getting worse in America. And with it, Washington, the Fed, and the mainstream media spinning rising prices as something that's beneficial for the general public. The Euro Pacific Capital CEO and Chief Global Strategist added a new entry Tuesday on his YouTube video blog The Schiff Report, and warned viewers of the following:
It's going to get worse. And, what is the Fed going to do about it? Because the problem is, no matter how high that inflation number gets, they can never admit it's a problem. Because if they admit that it's a problem, they've got to do something about it. But they can't do anything about it. Because if they want to fight inflation, what tools do they have? Just one. They've got to raise interest rates, which means they've got to end quantitative easing. And in order to raise interest rates, they've got to start selling their bonds and their mortgages back into the market. That will collapse the real estate market, collapse the stock market, send the economy into a sharp recession, and bring about a financial crisis worse than 2008. So because they can't do that, they can't do anything. So they're going to have to tolerate inflation, no matter how high it gets. They're going to have to convince us that it's good for us, no matter how high it gets. They're going to say, "Oh, well, maybe it's transitory," "It's because of the weather," "Oh, you know, we had such low inflation for so long, we need a few years of higher inflation to even it all out." Who knows what kind of excuses Janet Yellen is going to come up with to rationalize why whatever the inflation number is- no matter how high it is- it's always going to be a good thing?
But I wonder if the media- if the guys at Bloomberg or the guys at The New York Times or the AP or the Financial Times- will ever see through this charade. Will they ever see through this smokescreen and come out and call the Fed out on this? Will they ever say, "You know what, we've got too much inflation- this is not good. Do something about it." And when the Fed doesn't do something about it, that's going to be a big problem for the dollar. Because that's when people realize that this is QE Infinity, that inflation is never going to stop, that the dollar's value is going to erode away in perpetuity. That's when the bottom drops out of the market. That's when the real crisis comes in. Because now the dollar really starts to cave, and puts more pressure on the bond market. That means the Fed has to print a lot more money. A lot more dollars that nobody wants to buy the Treasuries that nobody wants to keep the market from collapsing. That accelerates the inflationary spiral, and puts the Fed in a real box. Because then, it just can't print the dollar into oblivion. It can't turn it into monopoly money. Then it has to slam on the breaks. Then it has to really jack up interest rates. Not just a few hundred basis points- ten percent, fifteen percent, twenty percent. Paul Volcker style. Of course, the medicine won't go down nearly as smoothly as it did back then. Not that it was so great tasting- we had a pretty bad recession in 1980. But that's nothing compared to what we're going to go through, because we have a lot more debt now than we had then- it's not even close. We don't have the viable economy. We don't have the trade surpluses or the current accounts surpluses. And we don't have a federal government that has a long-term financing on the national debt. It's all financed with T-bills. And we have all these adjustable rate mortgages. We have all these corporations, individuals that are so levered-up. We've got all these student loans and credit card debt. We have all this stuff that we didn't have back in the 1980s that we're going to have to deal with- thanks to the Fed.
"Media Reports Rising Food Prices as Positive News"
YouTube Video
By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
Bearish Peter Schiff Debates Bullish Nouriel Roubini
"How long was I warning about the housing bubble and the financial crisis before it happened? It was years. It takes a while for these problems to surface. We do have an inflation problem. We do have a bubble. And commodity prices are rising. Gold prices are rising."
-Peter Schiff, debating with noted "bear"-turned-"bull" Nouriel Roubini on CNBC's Fast Money yesterday
"Roubini vs. Schiff: Who's "Doomier" on US Economy?
YouTube Video
By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
Chicago Launching 'Summer Surge' Initiative To Combat Violence
Those who live and frequent Chicago may be happy to know another "surge" is being launched by the City of Chicago to fight the violence that's making national and international headlines (again) these days. Frank Main reported on the Chicago Sun-Times website last night:
The Chicago Police Department is getting ready to combat violence this summer with special overtime patrols in parks and public housing and on public transit, officials said Tuesday.
The partnership between police, the Chicago Transit Authority, the Chicago Housing Authority and the park district is part of what the city is calling the Summer Surge initiative.
Each agency will contribute to pay the overtime of 100 additional officers on weekdays, 200 on weekends and 300 on holiday weekends, a police spokesman said. Those agencies will help the police department determine where to deploy those officers, said Chicago Police Supt. Garry McCarthy.
He said the program is being launched in stages and should be "fully operational" on June 1…
These "surges" are nothing new for the city. Hal Dardick and Jeremy Gorner reported on the Chicago Tribune website back on February 24, 2013:
Chicago police plan to double the number of officers working overtime on their days off beginning Friday in an effort to tamp down the number of homicides plaguing the city, the Tribune has learned.
Police brass have told subordinates that 400 rank-and-file officers and 40 sergeants will be needed every day of the week as part of the department's overtime violence-reduction initiative to supplement the thousands of officers working their usual shifts, according to sources. Since the initiative began last summer, an average of 200 officers and about 20 sergeants were needed for overtime shifts five days out of the week…
The violence appears to be on the upswing again. I can't help but wonder if 2014 isn't going to be a lot like 2012 despite these "surges." I hope not.
But I know one thing for sure. The City's relentless blaming of "lax" gun "control" laws for their predicament has become as ridiculous as that war cry they often trot out ("it's for the children!") to "justify" some potential controversial initiative on Mayor Rahm Emanuel's agenda.
By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
Main, Frank. "More cops will patrol parks, transit system to curb summer violence." Chicago Sun-Times. 29 Apr. 2014. (http://www.suntimes.com/27138224-761/more-cops-will-patrol-parks-transit-system-to-curb-summer-violence.html#.U2D-S1eq_R5). 30 Apr. 2014.
Dardick, Hal and Gorner, Jeremy. "Overtime surge for Chicago police." Chicago Tribune. 24 Feb. 2013. (http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2013-02-24/news/ct-met-chicago-police-overtime-20130224_1_overtime-initiative-police-officers-chicago-police). 30 Apr. 2014.
Gallup Poll: U.S. Adults Think Real Estate, Followed By Gold And Stocks, Is Best Long-Term Investment
Gallup just conducted an Economy and Personal Finances telephone poll from April 3-6 where they asked 1,026 U.S. adults the following question:
Which of the following do you think is the best long-term investment — [ROTATED: bonds, real estate, savings accounts or CDs, stocks or mutual funds, (or) gold]?
Their findings?:
-30 percent said real estate
-24 percent said gold
-24 percent said stocks/mutual funds
-14 percent said savings accounts/CDs
-6 percent said bonds
Now here's something interesting. Rebecca Rifkin reported on the Gallup website yesterday:
Lower-income Americans, those living in households with less than $30,000 in annual income, are the most likely of all income groups to say gold is the best long-term investment choice, at 31%. Upper-income Americans are the least likely to name gold, at 18%…
Upper-income Americans are much more likely to say real estate and stocks are the best investment, possibly because of their experience with these types of investments…
(Editor's note: Bold added for emphasis)
Last April, real estate (25 percent) edged out gold (24 percent) in the poll, with stocks/mutual funds coming in at 22 percent.
In April 2012 and 2011, gold (28 and 34 percent, respectively) beat out runner-up real estate (20 and 19 percent, respectively) by significant margins.
Anyone else starting to think that the overall selection of "best long-term investment" for any particular year may be correlated with recent performance?
By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
(Editor's note: I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein)
Riffkin, Rebecca. "Americans Sold on Real Estate as Best Long-Term Investment." Gallup.com. 17 Apr. 2014. (http://www.gallup.com/poll/168554/americans-sold-real-estate-best-long-term-investment.aspx). 18 Apr. 2014.
Jacobe, Dennis. "Gold Loses Luster in U.S. as Investment; Real Estate Gains." Gallup.com. 16 Apr. 2013. (http://www.gallup.com/poll/161909/gold-loses-luster-investment-real-estate-gains.aspx). 18 Apr. 2014.
Saad, Lydia. "Gold Still Americans' Top Pick Among Long-Term Investments." Gallup. 27 Apr. 2012. (http://www.gallup.com/poll/154232/gold-americans-top-pick-among-long-term-investments.aspx). 18 Apr. 2014.
31 Percent Of Chicago-Area Homeowners With Mortgages 'Seriously Underwater'
Memorial Day Weekend 2007. I had just launched my first blog, Boom2Bust.com, "The Most Hated Blog On Wall Street," from my apartment on Chicago's Northwest Side. I remember thinking to myself, "Well, I don't want to just focus on turmoil in the financial markets as part of a coming financial crash. I also need to talk about the housing bubble and when that monstrosity bursts as well."
All of it happened (except Washington and the Fed managed to postpone the crash I was- and have been- warning about, leaving us with the "Panic of '08" and the Great Recession instead), providing me tons of material to blog about over the last seven years.
Now, my girlfriend and I were lucky enought to spot and sit out the housing bubble, eventually picking up a place last year for $117,000 less than it was at the height of the madness (according to one valuation). Regrettably, a number of friends and acquaintances in the Chicagoland area bought homes during the market's craziest years, when price levels were incredibly high (in my neighborhood, some barely inhabitable "shacks" were on the market for half-a-million dollars back then). I really hope they aren't "underwater"- owing more on their mortgages than their properties are worth- but I suspect a number of them are. Mary Ellen Podmolik reported on the Chicago Tribune website this morning:
Despite improving home prices, 31 percent of Chicago-area homeowners with a mortgage were seriously underwater in March, owing at least 25 percent more on their home loans than the property's value, a new report shows…
(Editor's note: Bold added for emphasis)
31 percent? That's bad news for the Chicagoland residential real estate market. The last time I talked about the "underwater people" on this blog was last fall, when I blogged:
This past Sunday, I spotted the following about underwater mortgages in my Chicago Tribune. Mary Ellen Podmolik wrote:
A lack of inventory is frustrating potential Chicago-area homebuyers, and a report last week from Zillow explains why some homeowners might like to sell their properties but can't. Despite improving home values, 35.4 percent of Chicago-area homeowners with a mortgage were underwater at the end of June, meaning they owed more on their loan than the home was worth, Zillow said. That means those homeowners would have to sell their properties through a bank-approved short sale.
(Editor's note: Bold added for emphasis)
So will that 31 percent "seriously underwater" rate improve anytime soon? Here's hoping. But considering the economic headwinds still working against housing- I'm not going to hold my breath (no pun intended).
By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
Podmolik, Mary Ellen. "Almost 1/3 of Chicago-area homeowners still significantly underwater." Chicago Tribune. 18 Apr. 2014. (http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/breaking/chi-homeowners-underwater-20140417,0,7135589.story). 18 Apr. 2014.
Peter Schiff Predicts Future Fed Moves
Peter Schiff of Euro Pacific Capital released a new entry Monday on The Schiff Report YouTube vlog. The "crash prophet" talked about a number of financial topics, including future activity by the U.S. central bank. Schiff predicted:
I think that with the weakening in the stock market, the softness we're seeing now in the real estate market- with the fact that we're going to be getting weaker jobs numbers in the spring that cannot be rationalized away based on the weather- the Fed is going to have come forward at some point and acknowledge which should have already been obvious. That they were mistaken. They were overly-optimistic on their assessment of the economy. That for whatever reason they'll come up with an excuse to save face- they can blame it on some external factor- but the Fed is going to have to come out and they're going to have to halt the tapering process, and ultimately reverse it.
How much time there will be between the pause and the reversal?
I don't know. I don't think it will be more than a couple of meetings, at best. But that's what's coming….
Schiff, who correctly-called the U.S. housing bubble and subsequent burst along with the 2008 global economic crisis, went on to speculate what all this might mean for gold and stocks.
"Warmer Weather's Failure to Stoke Jobs Chills Stocks"
YouTube Video
By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
(Editor's notes: I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein)
Record Net Worth Result Of Fed Blowing Bubbles In Housing, Stocks?
I was surfing the Internet last night when I read something about Americans' net worth making a comeback. Neil Shah reported on The Wall Street Journal website Thursday:
Americans' wealth hit the highest level ever last year, according to data released Thursday, reflecting a surge in the value of stocks and homes that has boosted the most affluent U.S. households.
The net worth of U.S. households and nonprofit organizations rose 14% last year, or almost $10 trillion, to $80.7 trillion, the highest on record, according to a Federal Reserve report released Thursday. Even adjusted for inflation using the Fed's preferred gauge of prices, U.S. household net worth—the value of homes, stocks and other assets minus debts and other liabilities—hit a fresh record…
(Editor's note: Italics added for emphasis)
I can't say I'm surprised to hear of this rebound in net worth. After all, Euro Pacific Capital's Peter Schiff has been warning for a couple of years now that the Federal Reserve is inflating new asset bubbles via tremendous amounts of stimulus (quantitative easing) to spark some sort of economic recovery in the wake of the bursting of the housing bubble and global financial crisis that reared its head in the fall of 2008. I blogged back on September 18, 2012:
In his September 14 entry on the The Schiff Report YouTube video blog, Schiff, who correctly-predicted the bursting of the U.S. housing bubble and 2008 global economic crisis, explained to viewers what QE3 was really about:
This is the plan that Ben Bernanke has. Ben Bernanke's plan to revive the U.S. economy, and create jobs, is to inflate another housing bubble. That's it. That's what the Fed's got. That's what it came up with. As if the last housing bubble worked out so well for the economy, that the Fed wants an encore…
How is another housing bubble going to solve anything. Now one thing that Ben Bernanke hasn't figured out yet- it ain't gonna work. No matter how much he tries, no matter how much air he blows in to that housing market, he's not going to reflate that bubble. There are simply too many holes in it, and there is no precedent for relating a busted bubble. More likely, all that cheap money is going to go someplace else…
Schiff asserted the Federal Reserve was trying to inflate another housing bubble.
Instead, there's suggestions both housing and the stock market look "frothy" these days.
Suppose the Fed did in fact want to inflate new asset bubbles. If the central bank aimed to spread the wealth around in an attempt to jump-start the economy, it doesn't seem to be happening. Shah noted in that WSJ article:
But the rebound, while powerful, has been tilted in a way that limits the upside for the broader U.S. economy and is increasingly leaving behind many middle- and lower-income Americans…
That means that even as wealth increases, it's increasingly going to the affluent.
In addition to the affluent, much of the wealth surge is going to older Americans. Both groups are less likely to spend their gains and more likely to save, Mr. Emmons said. Meanwhile, sheer demographics—the retirement of the baby boomers and America's aging population—are increasing the ranks of the nation's savers.
The upshot: While American households overall are getting wealthier, the benefits for the economy may prove limited until such improvements reach more people.
(Editor's note: Italics added for emphasis)
"The benefits for the economy may prove limited until such improvements reach more people."
I fear another financial crisis will have paid us a visit before such prosperity is achieved.
By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
Shah, Neil "U.S. Household Net Worth Hits Record High." The Wall Street Journal. 6 Mar. 2014. (link). 7 Mar. 2014.
Free Online Survival Training Summit Starts January 20
Speaking of survival instruction tonight, what do you have planned next week? You see, I got an e-mail last week from someone involved with The Survival Summit, billed as a "FREE, five-day, online training summit where 25 of the world's most sought-after experts on Survival and Self Reliance will be teaching online classes." The online event is scheduled to take place starting next Monday, January 20, and continues until January 26. From the Summit's website:
Join Us For The SURVIVAL Summit?
January 20-26th, 2014
This January, the founders of The Prepper Project will be hosting an exclusive online event that we're calling 'The Survival Summit':
It's going to be a FREE, five-day, online training summit where 25 of the world's most sought-after experts on Survival and Self Reliance will be teaching online classes, giving you 5 solid days and over 24 hours of training and strategies with the single focus of keeping your family alive, safe, and fed during a triggered societal collapse.
Topics we'll be covering during this 5-day event will include:
• How to develop a STRONG 'Protection Triad' with detailed Property Security & Threat Planning… Water, Energy, & Fuel Systems… and Self-Reliant Food Production & Storage.
• How to grow your own food supply, without fertilizers, pesticides, or even irrigation. Even if you live in an arid climate.
• How to spot the ideal homestead or survival retreat locations.
• Building concepts for hiding your home in the wilderness.
• Blueprints for setting up your property with its own off-grid water and energy supply.
• Trapping secrets for protecting crops like corn from being stolen by Raccoons, or potatoes from being ravaged by voles.
• How to feed & clothe your family by trapping like the settlers.
• How to protect your loved ones in a world where the police are no longer coming to your rescue.
• Different strategies for defending a suburban versus rural home or property from looters or armed gangs.
• How to fortify your home from being breached. And the skills you need to know to escape from an unlawful restraint or kidnapping.
• Off-grid medical techniques, herbal remedies for fighting potential flu pandemics, how to legally create your own renewable fuels, and much, much more.
And that's really just the beginning!
Sign up to attend The Survival Summit that kicks off on Monday, January 20th by entering your email address in the form below now, and we'll send you more details about our speaker lineup in the weeks ahead.
Again, this event is completely FREE to attend!
And you can watch all 25 of the presenters completely online from your home computer, provided you have a secure high speed Internet connection.
So there's no traveling to a central location; your privacy and identity remain protected.
But again, we want to emphasize, only those who register in advance by entering their names and emails addresses will be told how and where to attend this event.
We won't be publicly broadcasting these details across the Internet.
So if you know of someone who could benefit from joining this conversation with us, please direct them to this page to register as well.
We Hope You'll Join Us For The Week of January 20th.
"The Survival Summit"
YouTube Video
I took a quick look at the list of preparedness-related experts booked for the Summit. I'm familiar with the work of a number of them, and I'm impressed they'll be a part of this project. So much so I might have to schedule my blogging and other activities around viewing the Summit presentations next week.
Now, if you're like me, when someone uses the word "free" in a pitch, a red flag is raised. How can all this online instruction be free? From the website's FAQ page:
Each day, a couple of presentations will be posted on the summit website and will be available during the day for people to watch absolutely free. It's much like if you were attending a regular convention. After the day is over the presentations will no longer be available to watch for free but will be available for purchase as part of the summit upgrade package.
(Editor's note: Italics added for emphasis)
A summit upgrade package. That's how The Survival Summit can offer this material for free.
If the "online classes" are as good as I and others hope they are (which wouldn't be much of a stretch consider the experts involved in the Summit), I can see those packages selling rather well as a resource to refer back to down the road.
Next Monday, January 20, The Survival Summit begins. Register now to book a place at this special online event.
Click on the following banner ad to go to the Summit's website. If you register for the event via this link and eventually purchase a summit upgrade package, I receive a commission from the sale.
By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
Peter Schiff Bashes QE, Taper Lite, Gold Bears
"Gold Set for Worst Annual Tumble Since '81"
-FOX Business website headline, December 23, 2013
"Gold's safe-haven role is over: strategist"
-MarketWatch.com headline, December 23, 2013
"I wouldn't buy gold with my worst enemy's cash: Strategist"
-CNBC.com headline, December 22, 2013
Not only have I been waiting to hear Euro Pacific Capital CEO Peter Schiff's take on last week's "taper" of the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing program, but also his opinion on the latest bout of gold selling.
Schiff, who correctly called the recent housing crash and 2008 global economic crisis, just uploaded a new entry to The Schiff Report, his YouTube video blog. Schiff told viewers on December 20:
We have never had more stimulus- both monetary and fiscal- than we have right now. This is record-breaking, Keynesian stimulus. And it's barely working. Yes, it's inflating a stock market bubble. It's inflating a real estate bubble. But it's not creating genuine economic growth. And it never will. It is not raising living standards for the vast majority of Americans. And it isn't creating productive, high-paying jobs. And it never will. And Ben Bernanke doesn't understand that.
Like fellow "crash prophet" Marc Faber, Schiff believes the Federal Reserve will eventually pursue more, not less, bond-buying in the future. He explained:
Why did gold sell off? "Because everything is great." "Because the Fed has done the impossible." "It's tapered and it hasn't hurt anything." This is what everybody believes. That the Fed has accomplished its goal. It hasn't done anything. It's talked about doing a tiny bit. But again, as far as I'm concerned, monetary policy is even easier now than it was before they announced this trivial taper lite. And the rest of the taper is probably never going to happen because the Fed is going to have to buy more bonds, not fewer bonds, to keep this whole house of cards from imploding.
Now, is gold going to continue to fall? I don't know. My gut is that it's probably still finding a bottom around 1,200. There is plenty of legitimate support for gold all around the world. Yes, all the speculators who are convinced that everything is great. The same people that thought it was great in 2007. Or it was great in 1999. That crowd, completely clueless about actual economics, is convinced that there is no reason to own gold. And so, they're going to sell it, they're going to short it. But there is a larger community around the world, particularly I think a lot of the emerging markets, central banks, China in particular, that see it differently. And they're using this opportunity to buy as much gold as they can so that when the speculators and the investors figure out how wrong they've got it, and they realize that they need to be buying gold not selling it, there won't be any gold left to buy because they would have already sold it. And the people who bought it from them aren't going to sell it back. The gold that China bought- they're never going to sell it. I don't care how high the price of gold goes. They want that gold as reserves for their currency because they know the dollars that they have in reserve are eventually going to be Monopoly money. It's going to be confetti. So they need something real to back up their own currency, and they want gold.
And so, I think that we need to be taking advantage of this opportunity. And don't be worried about all the negativity that's out there and all the professionals who are writing gold's obituary. They've written it before, they'll write it again. But I still think that the bull market has a long way to go. Ultimately, we are still heading for a currency crisis.
"Taper Lite: Bernanke Tightens Monetary Policy by Easing it!"
YouTube Video
By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
(Editor's notes: Info added to "Crash Prophets" page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)
Christopher E. Hill, Editor
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Posted: Apr 8, 2014 1:33 PM
Updated: Apr 8, 2014 1:33 PM
NEW YORK (AP) The April gold contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed today at $1308.70 an ounce -- up $10.70.
The current silver contract on the "NYMEX" closed at $20.04 an ounce -- up 15 cents.
Gold and Silver
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Eric Owen
Vice President, Telecommunications, IDC EMEA
Eric Owen has more than 20 years' experience in the global telecommunications industry. He is currently responsible for research on the European telecommunications markets. This involves the analysis of both business and residential user requirements for fixed and mobile network services in Europe. It also includes evaluation of service provider and equipment vendor strategies in meeting these user requirements in the increasingly competitive European market, assessing the impact of market liberalization, and the evaluation of new services offerings.
Market Analysis Perspective: European Internet of Things 2014
Carla Arend, Roberta Bigliani, Mike Cansfield, Massimiliano Claps, Serena Da Rold, Jorge Ferreira, Lionel Lamy, Eric Owen, Angela Salmeron
Jan 2014 - Doc # LM51W IDC Presentation
This IDC presentation was prepared in late 2013 by the newly formed IDC European IoT practice. This document defines and looks at the emerging IoT ecosystem, how it relates to M2M initiatives, and what benefits it promises to bring to en ...purchase document
Worldwide Telecom Services 2013–2017 Forecast: 1H13 Update
Eric Owen, Courtney Munroe
Oct 2013 - Doc # 243935 Market Analysis
This IDC study offers an update of the worldwide telecom market for the first half of 2013. It includes worldwide, regional, and country-level perspectives for the global telecom market and provides IDC's usual five-year forecast outlook ...purchase document


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Posts by carrera4life
14 posts • joined 27 Sep 2011
You are here => Earth is in 'the suburbs' of an IMMENSE HEAVEN
Re: quadrillion?
The clue should be in the name; quad million ergo 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000
But for some reason we now all defer to *that* other numbering scheme.
The Greeks got it right :-)
Brit kids match 45-year-old fogies' tech skill level by the age of 6
Re: Good @ Yet anotheranon.....
Fancy his parents naming him Dick Pick....
MANIC MINERS: Ten Bitcoin generating machines
Re: Is it me?
You must be kidding. Most banks offer below 1% on savings; those accounts that offer 2% are capped with respect to the amount of cash one can deposit.
Dixons selling £68k gold, diamond, ruby and sapphire iPhone for Xmas
If sold to an oil sheik, Russian oligarch or premiership footballer, then cheap at half the price. What other way is there to extract money from these people so as to ensure that funds spread downwards through society?
When individuals horde their wealth, we all become poorer as a consequence. I say double the price.
US DoJ: Happy b-day, Ed Snowden! You're (not?) charged with capital crimes
What gets me is that, here we have an individual that chose to work in the security industry within both the CIA and NSA and yet is concerned by both organisations activities even though both are known for what they are.
How did he pass vetting? Was it his intention to infiltrate from the beginning? If one signs the official secrets act (or the US equivalent) then this is binding and any contravention is seen as breaking the law.
Astroboffins to search for mega-massive alien power plants
Re: Danger
Too late! I am Morninglight Mountain
Android spat loser Oracle ordered to toss Google some change
oracle and sun Microsystems.
twice in 2 days you've referred to Sun Microsystems as a subsidiary of Oracle; the company that was once Sun Microsystems ceased to exist following the acquisition by Oracle. there is no such subsidiary.
Oracle pumps out Q4 financials in premature release: See? We're OK
Re: and Itanium is dead
Unless there is a cast iron commercial agreement stating that software vendor X will support hardware vendor Y's chip set, isn't it up to X to decide what platforms its software will run on?
I always thought software companies chose hardware platforms on the likelihood that someone would actually buy both the hardware and the software; if no one buys the hardware, why would I care about the software?
I can't sue Sainsbury's simply because they stop selling my favorite product; I'd need a contract to be able to do that.
Number 10 shuts wallet on closed-source IT projects
"The government has convinced the CESG, which sets security standards in government, to address this issue with a statement saying open source as a category is no more or less secure than closed proprietary software."
What makes you believe that CESG thinks *any* software is secure? All this says is that CESG will apply the same rigorous standards irrespective of where the software originates, it says nothing in favour of open source derived software.
Facebook ninjas scale wall, pluck iPhone techies from Apple's garden
Re: Facebook smartphone
I can live without a Facebook phone, heck, I live without Facebook.
Facebook underwriters accused of hiding forecast
Re: Look on the bright side
FB makes... hmm, nothing. It's an vehicle for *advertising*. I have no intention of sharing my private details just so that i can be targeted by commercial organisations.
Apple, Microsoft and Intel *all* make real products, something FB doesn't .
Facebook's Googly IPO delivers on Sun man's vision
Never heard of it..
GCHQ code-breaking challenge cracked by Google search
So what...
So Google found the page that offers you the chance to APPLY for a position. You can rest assured that even if you used Google to find this page, it will be of little help once you're asked to demonstrate your abilities.
I really do not see what all the fuss is about.
Oracle rises for Unix server push
Re: Matt Bryant
He's passed out on the floor...
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