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Pattern of medical waste management: existing scenario in Dhaka City, Bangladesh
BACKGROUND: Medical waste is infectious and hazardous. It poses serious threats to environmental health and requires specific treatment and management prior to its final disposal. The problem is growing with an ever-increasing number of hospitals, clinics, and diagnostic laboratories in Dhaka City, Bangladesh. However, research on this critical issue has been very limited, and there is a serious dearth of
M Manzurul Hassan; Shafiul Azam Ahmed; K Anisur Rahman; Tarit Kanti Biswas
Scenario Management: An Interdisciplinary Approach
Scenario management (SM) means different things to different people, even though everyone seems to admit its current importance and its further potential. In this paper, we seek to provide an interdisciplinary framework for SM from three major disciplines that use scenarios - strategic management, human-computer interaction, and software and systems engineering - to deal with description of current and future
Matthias Jarke; Tung X. Bui; John M. Carroll
Workforce management strategies in a disaster scenario.
A model of the repair operations of the voice telecommunications network is used to study labor management strategies under a disaster scenario where the workforce is overwhelmed. The model incorporates overtime and fatigue functions and optimizes the deployment of the workforce based on the cost of the recovery and the time it takes to recover. The analysis shows that the current practices employed in workforce management in a disaster scenario are not optimal and more strategic deployment of that workforce is beneficial.
Kelic, Andjelka; Turk, Adam L.
Enrollment Management Study: Five Scenarios.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
The effect of enrollment level changes on the long-range future of Western Washington University are investigated. Due to the high rate of Washington state in-migration, declining enrollments are not projected for Western Washington University. The impact of managed enrollment goals was examined to help the university determine the most�
Albers, James R.; Burns, James A.
Management of keratoconus: current scenario
Keratoconus is an ectatic corneal dystrophy and is a leading indication for corneal transplantation surgery worldwide. The disease was first described in detail more than 150 years ago by Dr John Nottingham, but the understanding of the disease and its management have undergone significant changes over the last few decades. Corneal specialists have adopted new techniques and technologies for the
Vishal Jhanji; Namrata Sharma; Rasik B Vajpayee
Adapting water allocation management to drought scenarios
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Climate change dynamics have significant consequences on water resources on a watershed scale. With water becoming scarcer and susceptible to variation, the planning and reallocation decisions in watershed management need to be reviewed. This research focuses on an in-depth understanding of the current allocation balance of water resources among competitors, placed along the course of the Adda River. In particular, during the summer period, the demand for water dramatically increases. This is due to the increase in irrigation activities in the lower part of the basin and to the highest peaks of tourist inflow, in the Como Lake and Valtellina areas. Moreover, during these months, the hydroelectric reservoirs in the upper part of the Adda River basin (the Valtellina) retain most of the volume of water coming from the snow and glacier melt. The existing allocation problem among these different competing users is exacerbated by the decreasing water supplies. The summer of 2003 testified the rise in a number of allocation problems and situations of water scarcity that brought about environmental and economical consequences. The RICLIC project is committed to the understanding of water dynamics on a regional scale, to quantify the volumes involved and offer local communities an instrument to improve a sustainable water management system, within uncertain climate change scenarios.
Giacomelli, P.; Rossetti, A.; Brambilla, M.
[Environmental management: critical analysis, scenarios and challenges].
This article discusses the limits, alternatives and challenges of environmental management in contemporary globalized capitalist societies. It is based on a critical analysis supported by authors from social sciences, political ecology and public health. To this end, we systematize the meaning of hegemonic environmental management in terms of eco-efficiency and its limits to tackle environmental risks and construct democratic processes and societies. We developed four ideal scenarios involving possible combinations of environmental management and democracy. This model served as a base, together with academic studies and the theoretical and militant experience of the authors, for a reflection on the current characteristics and future trends of environmental management and democracy, with emphasis on the reality of Latin America, specifically Brazil. Lastly, we discuss possibilities for social transformation taking into consideration the contradictions and emancipatory alternatives resulting from confrontations between hegemonic tendencies of the market and counter-hegemonic utopias and social movements. The latter assume principles of environmental justice, economic solidarity, agro-ecology and sustainability as well as the construction of new epistemologies. PMID:22699636
Porto, Marcelo Firpo de Souza; Sch�tz, Gabriel Eduardo
Alternative scenarios to meet the demands of sustainable waste management.
This paper analyses different alternatives for solid waste management that can be implemented to enable the targets required by the European Landfill and Packaging and Packaging Waste Directives to be achieved in the Valencian Community, on the east coast of Spain. The methodology applied to evaluate the environmental performance of each alternative is Life Cycle Assessment (LCA). The analysis has been performed at two levels; first, the emissions accounted for in the inventory stage have been arranged into impact categories to obtain an indicator for each category; and secondly, the weighting of environmental data to a single unit has been applied. Despite quantitative differences between the results obtained with four alternative impact assessment methods, the same preference ranking has been established: scenarios with energy recovery (1v and 2v) achieve major improvements compared to baseline, with scenario 1v being better than 2v for all impact assessment methods except for the EPS'00 method, which obtains better results for scenario 2v. Sensitivity analysis has been used to test some of the assumptions used in the initial life cycle inventory model but none have a significant effect on the overall results. As a result, the best alternative to the existing waste management system can be identified. PMID:16202507
Bovea, M D; Powell, J C
Applying System Dynamics to Scenario Based Software Project Management
Complex software development is a risky job. The number of unsuccessful projects largely surpasses the number of successful developments. Many studies relate this situation to non-technical problems, especially to inadequate project management. Scenario based software project management is an extension of the risk management paradigm that uses system dynamics abstract models to describe potential problems that can affect a software
Assessment of municipal solid waste management scenarios in Irkutsk (Russia) using a life cycle assessment-integrated waste management model.
Continuous growth in the quantity of municipal solid waste (MSW) and increasing demands for their environmentally-friendly treatment are one of the main consequences of the growing social and economic development rate in modern society. Despite ecologically sustainable trends in waste management systems around the world, open dumps are still the main waste treatment option in Russia. This study aims to help the local municipality administration in Irkutsk (Russia) identify the most appropriate direction for current waste management and its optimization. Within this study four developed MSW management scenarios were assessed and compared with respect to their ecological, economic and social aspects using a life cycle-based integrated waste management model. The evaluation results of these scenarios show that the development of environmental sustainability and the reduction of social effects lead to an increase in handling of costs of waste. The best scenario, regarding both environmental and social aspects, is scenario four, which includes the separate collection and reprocessing of recyclables in combination with an aerobic mechanical-biological pre-treatment of the residual waste before landfilling. However, this scenario is 3.6 times more expensive than the existing system. The results of all assessed scenarios were further analyzed and recommendations were made to design integrated waste management solutions that are optimal not only from the ecological and social points of view, but which are also realistic within the given economic situation. PMID:23444153
Tulokhonova, Alisa; Ulanova, Olga
Change Ahead: Transient Scenarios for Long-term Water Management
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
While the use of an ensemble of transient scenarios is common in climate change studies, they are rarely used in water management studies. Present planning studies on long-term water management often use a few plausible futures for one or two projection years, ignoring the dynamic aspect of adaptation through the interaction between the water system and society. Over the course of time society experiences, learns and adapts to changes and events, making policy responses part of a plausible future, and thus the success of a water management strategy. Exploring transient scenarios and policy options over time can support decision making on water management strategies in an uncertain and changing environment. We have developed and applied such a method, called exploring adaptation pathways (Haasnoot et al., 2012; Haasnoot et al., 2011). This method uses multiple realisations of transient scenarios to assess the efficacy of policy actions over time. In case specified objectives are not achieved anymore, an adaptation tipping point (Kwadijk et al., 2010) is reached. After reaching a tipping point, additional actions are needed to reach the objectives. As a result, a pathway emerges. In this presentation we describe the development of transient scenarios for long term water management, and how these scenarios can be used for long term water management under uncertainty. We illustrate this with thought experiments, and results from computational modeling experiment for exploring adaptation pathways in the lower Rhine delta. The results and the thought experiments show, among others, that climate variability is at least just as important as climate change for taking decisions in water management. References Haasnoot, M., Middelkoop, H., Offermans, A., Beek, E., Deursen, W.A.v. (2012) Exploring pathways for sustainable water management in river deltas in a changing environment. Climatic Change 115, 795-819. Haasnoot, M., Middelkoop, H., van Beek, E., van Deursen, W.P.A. (2011) A Method to Develop Sustainable Water Management Strategies for an Uncertain Future. Sustainable Development 19, 369-381. Kwadijk, J.C.J., Haasnoot, M., Mulder, J.P.M., Hoogvliet, M.M.C., Jeuken, A.B.M., van der Krogt, R.A.A., van Oostrom, N.G.C., Schelfhout, H.A., van Velzen, E.H., van Waveren, H., de Wit, M.J.M. (2010) Using adaptation tipping points to prepare for climate change and sea level rise: a case study in the Netherlands. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change 1, 729-740.
Haasnoot, Marjolijn; Beersma, Jules; Schellekens, Jaap
Future European agricultural landscapes�What can we learn from existing quantitative land use scenario studies?
The structure of agricultural production and spatial patterns of agricultural land use in Europe are expected to face major changes over the next decades due to changes in global trade, technology, demography and policies. This paper presents a set of 25 scenarios comprising information on quantitative land use changes in Europe. The scenarios have been selected from studies with different
Gerald Busch
Simulation of water-use conservation scenarios for the Mississippi Delta using an existing regional groundwater flow model
The Mississippi River alluvial plain in northwestern Mississippi (referred to as the Delta), once a floodplain to the Mississippi River covered with hardwoods and marshland, is now a highly productive agricultural region of large economic importance to Mississippi. Water for irrigation is supplied primarily by the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer, and although the alluvial aquifer has a large reserve, there is evidence that the current rate of water use from the alluvial aquifer is not sustainable. Using an existing regional groundwater flow model, conservation scenarios were developed for the alluvial aquifer underlying the Delta region in northwestern Mississippi to assess where the implementation of water-use conservation efforts would have the greatest effect on future water availability-either uniformly throughout the Delta, or focused on a cone of depression in the alluvial aquifer underlying the central part of the Delta. Five scenarios were simulated with the Mississippi Embayment Regional Aquifer Study groundwater flow model: (1) a base scenario in which water use remained constant at 2007 rates throughout the entire simulation; (2) a 5-percent 'Delta-wide' conservation scenario in which water use across the Delta was decreased by 5 percent; (3) a 5-percent 'cone-equivalent' conservation scenario in which water use within the area of the cone of depression was decreased by 11 percent (a volume equivalent to the 5-percent Delta-wide conservation scenario); (4) a 25-percent Delta-wide conservation scenario in which water use across the Delta was decreased by 25 percent; and (5) a 25-percent cone-equivalent conservation scenario in which water use within the area of the cone of depression was decreased by 55 percent (a volume equivalent to the 25-percent Delta-wide conservation scenario). The Delta-wide scenarios result in greater average water-level improvements (relative to the base scenario) for the entire Delta area than the cone-equivalent scenarios; however, the cone-equivalent scenarios result in greater average water-level improvements within the area of the cone of depression because of focused conservation efforts within that area. Regardless of where conservation is located, the greatest average improvements in water level occur within the area of the cone of depression because of the corresponding large area of unsaturated aquifer material within the area of the cone of depression and the hydraulic gradient, which slopes from the periphery of the Delta towards the area of the cone of depression. Of the four conservation scenarios, the 25-percent cone-equivalent scenario resulted in the greatest increase in storage relative to the base scenario with a 32-percent improvement over the base scenario across the entire Delta and a 60-percent improvement within the area of the cone of depression. Overall, the results indicate that focusing conservation efforts within the area of the cone of depression, rather than distributing conservation efforts uniformly across the Delta, results in greater improvements in the amount of storage within the alluvial aquifer. Additionally, as the total amount of conservation increases (that is, from 5 to 25 percent), the difference in storage improvement between the Delta-wide and cone-equivalent scenarios also increases, resulting in greater gains in storage in the cone-equivalent scenario than in the Delta-wide scenario for the same amount of conservation.
Barlow, Jeannie R.B.; Clark, Brian R.
Life cycle inventory for municipal solid waste management. Part 2: MSW management scenarios and modeling.
Evaluating the environmental performance of municipal solid waste management options is a complex task. Part 1 of this study presents the municipal solid waste management program of the Pamplona Region in Spain and explores the operational, economic, and environmental factors of the program. In Part 2, alternative waste management scenarios that include the selective collection of organic material and composting are illustrated. The use of a Life Cycle Inventory model for waste management allows for the comparison of the environmental burdens of the different scenarios. This use of a Life Cycle Inventory model for solid waste management lets program managers and decision makers include energy use, final solid waste, and Greenhouse gas emissions in the decision making process. Additionally, the different management scenarios are evaluated on their ability to fulfil Pamplona regional objectives and meet European Packaging and Landfill Directive targets. PMID:12020093
Wilson, E J
Agricultural water management scenarios to protect groundwater-dependent ecosystems
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Groundwater pumping, even if only seasonal, may significantly impact groundwater dependent ecosystems through increased streamflow depletion, particularly in semi-arid and arid regions. The effects are exacerbated, under some conditions, by climate change. In this work we combine different tools to evaluate impact of water management scenarios in an agricultural basin. Here we first develop a spatio-temporally distributed soil water budget model that we couple with an analytical model for stream depletion from groundwater pumping to rapidly assess seasonal impacts of groundwater pumping on streamflow during critical low flow periods. In a second step, the water budget model is used to provide recharge and pumping values for each field as input for a valley-wide groundwater model developed with MODFLOW-2005. Results of the simulations obtained by means of the simple coupled soil water budget model/analytical model have been used to select and design with the engagement of stakeholders feasible management scenarios. The latter have been implemented in the numerical groundwater model. Results and insights from both modelling approaches are discussed. We demonstrate the applicability of the analysis for the Scott Valley in Northern California, where protected salmon depend on summer streamflow fed by cool groundwater. In this example, simulations obtained with the two approaches suggest that increased recharge in the period immediately preceding the critical low streamflow season, and transfer of groundwater pumping away from the stream are potentially promising tools to address ecosystem concerns, albeit raising difficult infrastructure and water trading issues. In contrast, additional winter recharge at the expense of later spring recharge, whether intentional or driven by climate may reduce summer streamflows. Results suggests that the coupled soil water mass balance - stream depletion function approach provides a viable tool for scenario development among stakeholders, to constructively inform the search for potential solutions, and to direct more detailed, complex site specific feasibility studies. The further implementation of the management scenarios into the numerical groundwater model provides details on the local impact of the results and more insights about specific data collection and needed infrastructures in order to practically develop the management scenarios.
Foglia, Laura; Harter, Thomas
An examination of the ethical beliefs of managers using selected scenarios in a cross-cultural environment
Academic literature addressing the topic of business ethics has paid little attention to cross-cultural studies of business ethics. Uncertainty exists concerning the effect of culture on ethical beliefs. The purpose of this research is to compare the ethical beliefs of managers operating in South Africa and Australia. Responses of 52 managers to a series of ethical scenarios were sought. Results
Russell Abratt; Deon Nel; Nicola Susan Higgs
Practical Tips for Managing Challenging Scenarios in Undergraduate Research
NSDL National Science Digital Library
The Mathematical Association of America (MAA) has been involved in a number of new initiatives as of late, and one such project is the "Resources for Undergraduate Research". This series brings together topical information on new research methods and strategies for working with undergraduate students on a number of mathematical endeavors. This particular paper looks at how to best manage different scenarios that might arise during the research advising process. Authored by Sarah Adams and Darren A. Narayan, this document is based on solutions discussed by a group of faculty members that participated in the 2008 Center for Undergraduate Research in Mathematics Workshop. The five-page document discusses five specific scenarios that might occur (including what might be done if a student tends to dominate or control a group project) and offers some specific and concrete solutions to such difficulties. The scenarios discussed could occur in more than just college math classrooms, so this document is broadly relevant for many groups of educators.
Bailey, Brad; Budden, Mark; Ghosh-Dastidar, Urmi
Novel pervasive scenarios for home management: the Butlers architecture.
Many efforts today aim to energy saving, promoting the user's awareness and virtuous behavior in a sustainability perspective. Our houses, appliances, energy meters and devices are becoming smarter and connected, domotics is increasing possibilities in house automation and control, and ambient intelligence and assisted living are bringing attention onto people's needs from different viewpoints. Our assumption is that considering these aspects together allows for novel intriguing possibilities. To this end, in this paper we combine home energy management with domotics, coordination technologies, intelligent agents, ambient intelligence, ubiquitous technologies and gamification to devise novel scenarios, where energy monitoring and management is just the basic brick of a much wider and comprehensive home management system. The aim is to control home appliances well beyond energy consumption, combining home comfort, appliance scheduling, safety constraints, etc. with dynamically-changeable users' preferences, goals and priorities. At the same time, usability and attractiveness are seen as key success factors: so, the intriguing technologies available in most houses and smart devices are exploited to make the system configuration and use simpler, entertaining and attractive for users. These aspects are also integrated with ubiquitous and pervasive technologies, geo-localization, social networks and communities to provide enhanced functionalities and support smarter application scenarios, hereby further strengthening technology acceptation and diffusion. Accordingly, we first analyse the system requirements and define a reference multi-layer architectural model - the Butlers architecture - that specifies seven layers of functionalities, correlating the requirements, the corresponding technologies and the consequent value-added for users in each layer. Then, we outline a set of notable scenarios of increasing functionalities and complexity, discuss the structure of the corresponding system patterns in terms of the proposed architecture, and make this concrete by presenting some comprehensive interaction examples as comic strip stories. Next, we discuss the implementation requirements and how they can be met with the available technologies, discuss a possible architecture, refine it in the concrete case of the TuCSoN coordination technology, present a subsystem prototype and discuss its properties in the Butlers perspective. PMID:24555169
Denti, Enrico
Enhanced adaptive management: integrating decision analysis, scenario analysis and environmental modeling for the Everglades.
We propose to enhance existing adaptive management efforts with a decision-analytical approach that can guide the initial selection of robust restoration alternative plans and inform the need to adjust these alternatives in the course of action based on continuously acquired monitoring information and changing stakeholder values. We demonstrate an application of enhanced adaptive management for a wetland restoration case study inspired by the Florida Everglades restoration effort. We find that alternatives designed to reconstruct the pre-drainage flow may have a positive ecological impact, but may also have high operational costs and only marginally contribute to meeting other objectives such as reduction of flooding. Enhanced adaptive management allows managers to guide investment in ecosystem modeling and monitoring efforts through scenario and value of information analyses to support optimal restoration strategies in the face of uncertain and changing information. PMID:24113217
Convertino, Matteo; Foran, Christy M; Keisler, Jeffrey M; Scarlett, Lynn; LoSchiavo, Andy; Kiker, Gregory A; Linkov, Igor
Enhanced Adaptive Management: Integrating Decision Analysis, Scenario Analysis and Environmental Modeling for the Everglades
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
We propose to enhance existing adaptive management efforts with a decision-analytical approach that can guide the initial selection of robust restoration alternative plans and inform the need to adjust these alternatives in the course of action based on continuously acquired monitoring information and changing stakeholder values. We demonstrate an application of enhanced adaptive management for a wetland restoration case study inspired by the Florida Everglades restoration effort. We find that alternatives designed to reconstruct the pre-drainage flow may have a positive ecological impact, but may also have high operational costs and only marginally contribute to meeting other objectives such as reduction of flooding. Enhanced adaptive management allows managers to guide investment in ecosystem modeling and monitoring efforts through scenario and value of information analyses to support optimal restoration strategies in the face of uncertain and changing information.
Convertino, Matteo; Foran, Christy M.; Keisler, Jeffrey M.; Scarlett, Lynn; Loschiavo, Andy; Kiker, Gregory A.; Linkov, Igor
Enhanced Adaptive Management: Integrating Decision Analysis, Scenario Analysis and Environmental Modeling for the Everglades
We propose to enhance existing adaptive management efforts with a decision-analytical approach that can guide the initial selection of robust restoration alternative plans and inform the need to adjust these alternatives in the course of action based on continuously acquired monitoring information and changing stakeholder values. We demonstrate an application of enhanced adaptive management for a wetland restoration case study inspired by the Florida Everglades restoration effort. We find that alternatives designed to reconstruct the pre-drainage flow may have a positive ecological impact, but may also have high operational costs and only marginally contribute to meeting other objectives such as reduction of flooding. Enhanced adaptive management allows managers to guide investment in ecosystem modeling and monitoring efforts through scenario and value of information analyses to support optimal restoration strategies in the face of uncertain and changing information.
Convertino, Matteo; Foran, Christy M.; Keisler, Jeffrey M.; Scarlett, Lynn; LoSchiavo, Andy; Kiker, Gregory A.; Linkov, Igor
E-waste scenario in India, its management and implications.
Electronic waste or E-waste comprises of old, end-of-life electronic appliances such as computers, laptops, TVs, DVD players, refrigerators, freezers, mobile phones, MP3 players, etc., which have been disposed of by their original users. E-waste contains many hazardous constituents that may negatively impact the environment and affect human health if not properly managed. Various organizations, bodies, and governments of many countries have adopted and/or developed the environmentally sound options and strategies for E-waste management to tackle the ever growing threat of E-waste to the environment and human health. This paper presents E-waste composition, categorization, Global and Indian E-waste scenarios, prospects of recoverable, recyclable, and hazardous materials found in the E-waste, Best Available Practices, recycling, and recovery processes followed, and their environmental and occupational hazards. Based on the discussion, various challenges for E-waste management particularly in India are delineated, and needed policy interventions were discussed. PMID:20151189
Wath, Sushant B; Dutt, P S; Chakrabarti, T
How to improve scenario analysis as a strategic management tool?
Scenarios are claimed to support strategic decision makers. They are especially effective in dealing with uncertainties. This paper addresses some drawbacks of the conventional scenario method, which is especially directed at handling these uncertainties, and indicates possible avenues for methodological adaptations. We take the approach, which rests in the Shell tradition, as exemplary for our discussion on the mainstream scenario
Theo J. B. M. Postma; Franz Liebl
Averaging of Dispersion-Managed Solitons: Existence and Stability
We consider existence and stability of dispersion-managed solitons in the two ap- proximations of the periodic nonlinear Schrodinger (NLS) equation: (i) a dynamicalsystem for a Gaussian pulse and (ii) an average integral NLS equation. We apply normal form transformations for finite-dimensionaland infinite-dimensionalHamil tonian systems with periodic coefficients. First- order corrections to the leading-order averaged Hamiltonian are derived explicitly for both
Dmitry E. Pelinovsky; Vadim Zharnitsky
Space-enabled information environment for crisis management. Scenario-based analysis and evaluation in an operational environment
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
The paper presents analysis of usefulness of space applications in crisis management activities carried out on the national level. Analytical approach has been based upon development of realistic disaster scenarios and their evaluation with assumption of existence of space-related capabilities available to rescue forces. Building upon analysis's results, the experimental information environment has been developed and it successfully supported commanding of a large-scale crisis management field training. The results prove that many crisis management needs can be served with existing, commercially available products. The key to success lays in understanding operational needs; integration into common information environment; and standardisation of information exchange.
Ryzenko, Jakub; Smolarkiewicz, Marcin
A hybrid simulation\\/optimisation scenario model for asset\\/liability management
In this paper we desciibe a decision support model to sustain management of pension-funds in the strategic planning of the available asset- and liability policy instruments. A main characteristic of the approach is that the relevant risk-drivers are modelled by scenarios, rather than by probability distributions. We will describe the scenario generation methodology, and how the scenarios are used by
Guus C. E. Boender
Utility of complex distributed-parameter watershed models for evaluation of the effectiveness of non-point source sediment and nutrient abatement scenarios such as Best Management Practices (BMPs) often follows the traditional {calibrate ---> validate ---> predict} procedure. Des...
Municipal solid waste management scenarios for Attica and their greenhouse gas emission impact.
Disposal of municipal solid waste in sanitary landfills is still the main waste management method in the Attica region, as in most regions of Greece. Nevertheless, diversion from landfilling is being promoted by regional plans, in which the perspectives of new waste treatment technologies are being evaluated. The present study aimed to assess the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions impact of different municipal solid waste treatment technologies currently under assessment in the new regional plan for Attica. These technologies are mechanical-biological treatment, mass-burn incineration and mechanical treatment and have been assessed in the context of different scenarios. The present study utilized existing methodologies and emission factors for the quantification of GHG emissions from the waste management process and found that all technologies under assessment could provide GHG emission savings. However, the performance and ranking of these technologies is strongly dependent on the existence of end markets for the waste-derived fuels produced by the mechanical-biological treatment processes. In the absence of these markets the disposal of these fuels would be necessary and thus significant GHG savings would be lost. PMID:19837710
Papageorgiou, Asterios; Karagiannidis, Avraam; Barton, John R; Kalogirou, Efstratios
Progress and Pitfalls in Global Change Scenario Use for Water Resources Management
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Water resources was one of the first sectors where focused interest in potential management challenges regarding future climate change was exhibited. This interest was a function of the relatively long planning horizon for water resources infrastructure as well as the centrality of the resource to most human enterprises. As the challenge of climate change draws nearer, use of scenarios for long-term planning has become more critical. To sensibly assess the threats and (sometimes) opportunities that water managers face they need scenarios of climate change and other key future factors (e.g., population, technology, economic development) to determine the climate's future impact on their sector and the factors that influence vulnerability. One key issue in scenario formation (and quantification of uncertainty characterized initially in scenarios) is that of reflexivity, or how to represent decisions within scenarios. This is usually an issue in scenarios of socio-economic development and other factors that influence the development of projections of emissions. One school of thought suggests that scenarios that directly involve human agency should not become part of a probabilistic enterprise, while another suggests that the condition poses no problem for rendering future population, technological advances etc.. This issue will be discussed in the context of water resource management needs for information about the future.
Mearns, L. O.
Satellite Power System (SPS) financial/management scenarios
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
The possible benefits of a Satellite Power System (SPS) program, both domestically and internationally, justify detailed and imaginative investigation of the issues involved in financing and managing such a large-scale program. In this study, ten possible methods of financing a SPS program are identified ranging from pure government agency to private corporations. The following were analyzed and evaluated: (1) capital requirements for SPS; (2) ownership and control; (3) management principles; (4) organizational forms for SPS; (5) criteria for evaluation; (6) detailed description and preliminary evaluation of alternatives; (7) phased approaches; and (8) comparative evaluation. Key issues and observations and recommendations for further study are also presented.
Vajk, J. P.
Scenario modeling for the management ofinternational bond portfolios
We address the problem of portfolio management in the international bond markets.Interest rate risk in the local market, exchange rate volatility across markets, and decisionsfor hedging currency risk are integral parts of this problem. The paper develops a stochasticprogramming optimization model for integrating these decisions in a common framework.Monte Carlo simulation procedures, calibrated using historical observations of volatilityand correlation data,
Andrea Beltratti; Andrea Consiglio; Stavros A. Zenios
Global warming factors modelled for 40 generic municipal waste management scenarios.
Global warming factors (kg CO(2)-eq.-tonne(-1) of waste) have been modelled for 40 different municipal waste management scenarios involving a variety of recycling systems (paper, glass, plastic and organics) and residual waste management by landfilling, incineration or mechanical-biological waste treatment. For average European waste composition most waste management scenarios provided negative global warming factors and hence overall savings in greenhouse gas emissions: Scenarios with landfilling saved 0-400, scenarios with incineration saved 200-700, and scenarios with mechanical-biological treatment saved 200- 750 kg CO(2)-eq. tonne(- 1) municipal waste depending on recycling scheme and energy recovery. Key parameters were the amount of paper recycled (it was assumed that wood made excessive by paper recycling substituted for fossil fuel), the crediting of the waste management system for the amount of energy recovered (hard-coal-based energy was substituted), and binding of biogenic carbon in landfills. Most other processes were of less importance. Rational waste management can provide significant savings in society's emission of greenhouse gas depending on waste composition and efficient utilization of the energy recovered. PMID:19837711
Christensen, Thomas H; Simion, Federico; Tonini, Davide; M�ller, Jacob
How Existing Business Management Concepts Become School Leadership Fashions
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Purpose: This article examines the history of three management concepts that originated in the business sector and progressed to the K-12 education sector. Framework: We propose a new conceptual model intended to help illuminate how ideas and strategies originally created for business leadership gain influence in the realm of K-12 school�
Peck, Craig; Reitzug, Ulrich C.
Development of a Prototype Automation Simulation Scenario Generator for Air Traffic Management Software Simulations
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
A technique for automated development of scenarios for use in the Multi-Center Traffic Management Advisor (McTMA) software simulations is described. The resulting software is designed and implemented to automate the generation of simulation scenarios with the intent of reducing the time it currently takes using an observational approach. The software program is effective in achieving this goal. The scenarios created for use in the McTMA simulations are based on data taken from data files from the McTMA system, and were manually edited before incorporation into the simulations to ensure accuracy. Despite the software s overall favorable performance, several key software issues are identified. Proposed solutions to these issues are discussed. Future enhancements to the scenario generator software may address the limitations identified in this paper.
Khambatta, Cyrus F.
Facilitating Adaptive Water Management Planning Using Scenarios That Illuminate Vulnerabilities (Invited)
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Fast changing and hard-to-predict future supply, demand, technology, regulatory, and other conditions present water managers with significant planning challenges. Adaptive plans, ones designed to evolve over time in response to new information, represent an obvious solution in principle, but are often to develop and implement in practice. This talk will describe the use analytic methods to facilitate the development of scenarios as part of a decision support process that leads to the development of adaptive water management plans. The scenarios are chosen to illuminate the vulnerabilities of proposed policies, that is, provide concise summaries of the future states of the world in which a proposed policy would fail to meet its goals. Such scenarios emerge from a decision support process that begins with a proposed policy, seeks to understand the conditions under which it would fail, and then uses this information to identify and evaluate potential alternative policies that are robust over a wide range of future conditions. Statistical cluster analyses applied to databases of simulation model results can help identify scenarios as part of this process. This talk will describe efforts to evaluate the ability of such scenarios to effectively communicate decision-relevant information, and describe how water management agencies have used them to develop robust, adaptive plans.
Lempert, R. J.
Cattle herd vulnerability to rainfall variability: responses to two management scenarios in southern Ethiopia.
We examine how the system of grazing management of cattle in savanna rangelands affects the herd response to drought. We have used long-term time series data to evaluate the effects of management on drought-induced cattle mortality using traditional livestock management practices. There was no control of stocking densities, as compared to a government ranch where stocking densities would be adjusted in accordance with available pasture. We tested the responses under two scenarios. Scenario 1: Response of cattle herds to inter-annual rainfall variability (IRV) under a regulated grazing management system; this provides more reliable predictions of cattle population and performance in terms of herd mortality and calving rates than does the communal land use system. Scenario 2: Regardless of the management system, similar trends in cattle populations will be observed in response to IRV. The results of the study showed that fluctuations in cattle numbers, herd mortality and calving rates were highly correlated with IRV, with stronger linear impacts in accordance with scenario 2. In both management systems, cattle herd sizes and calving rates declined during periods of drought, followed by slow recovery. Cattle populations in Borana rangelands in southern Ethiopia did not recover for a period of two decades. We conclude that a management system based on control of stocking densities did not improve herd survival, as compared with traditional drought management strategies. This contradicts common expectations. Increased drought frequencies aggravated cattle mortality and lowered calving rates. The implication of the findings is that regardless of adjusted stocking density, livestock populations in the arid savanna ecosystems of southern Ethiopia remain at risk from climate change. PMID:23054807
Angassa, Ayana; Oba, Gufu
Hydropower generation management under uncertainty via scenario analysis and parallel computation
The authors present a modeling framework for the robust solution of hydroelectric power generation management problems with uncertainty in the values of the water inflows and outflows. A deterministic treatment of the problem provides unsatisfactory results, except for very short time horizons. They describe a model based on scenario analysis that allows a satisfactory treatment of uncertainty in the model
L. F. Escudero; J. L. de la Fuente; C. Garcia; F. J. Prieto
Common sole in the northern and central Adriatic Sea: Spatial management scenarios to rebuild the stock
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
The northern and central Adriatic Sea represents an important spawning and aggregation area for common sole (Solea solea) and provides for around 20% of the Mediterranean landings. In this area, this resource is mainly exploited with rapido trawl and set nets. The stock is not yet depleted and faces a situation of growth overfishing. The comparison between the spatial distribution by age of S. solea and the geographic patterns of the rapido trawl fishing effort evidenced an overlapping of this fishing activity with the area where juveniles concentrate (age groups 0-2). The majority of spawners inhabits specific offshore areas, here defined as �sole sanctuaries', where high concentrations of debris and benthic communities make difficult trawling with rapido. The aim of this study was to evaluate existing spatial management regimes and potential new spatial and temporal closures in the northern and central Adriatic Sea using a simple modelling tool. Two spatial simulations were carried out in order to verify the effectiveness of complementary methods for the management of fisheries: the ban of rapido trawling from October to December within 6 nautical miles and 9 nautical miles of the Italian coast. The focus of the simulation is that the effort of the rapido trawl is moved far from the coast during key sole recruitment periods, when the juveniles are moving from the inshore nursery area toward the offshore feeding grounds. The management scenarios showed that a change in selectivity would lead to a clear increase in the spawning stock biomass and an increase in landings of S. solea in the medium-term. The rapido trawl activity could be managed by using a different logic, bearing in mind that catches and incomes would increase with small changes in the spatial pattern of the fishing effort. The present study highlights the importance of taking into account spatial dimensions of fishing fleets and the possible interactions that can occur between fleets and target species, facilitating the development of control measures to achieve a healthy balance between stock exploitation and socio-economic factors.
Scarcella, Giuseppe; Grati, Fabio; Raicevich, Sa�a; Russo, Tommaso; Gramolini, Roberto; Scott, Robert D.; Polidori, Piero; Domenichetti, Filippo; Bolognini, Luca; Giovanardi, Otello; Celi?, Igor; Sabatini, Laura; Vrgo?, Nedo; Isajlovi?, Igor; Mar?eta, Bojan; Fabi, Gianna
Electronic waste management cost: a scenario-based analysis for Greece.
Waste electrical and electronic equipment (WEEE) is recognized as a priority waste stream internationally, mostly due to their volume and hazardousness. This paper presents an analysis for the quantification of WEEE management cost for Greece, taking into consideration scenarios for reverse logistics network's development and WEEE volume scenarios. Transportation cost, which represents a major cost element for any reverse logistics network, is modelled with the use of mathematical programming, targeting towards the optimization of locations for the development of required intermediate storage infrastructures. Additionally, overall operational cost and recycling fees are estimated. PMID:21242175
Achillas, Ch; Vlachokostas, Ch; Moussiopoulos, N; Perkoulidis, G; Banias, G; Mastropavlos, M
A modelling approach to adaptive management of water protection forests under climate change scenarios
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Intact forest stands in humid climate zones are considered to have favourable effects on ground water supply by moderating peak flows and by their ability to filter, buffer or transform pollutants. These functions may be temporarily lost in case of disturbances. The water supply and storage capacity of a forest site is a determinant of both species composition and leaf area. Changing climate, can increase the severity and duration of drought stress events, putting a current forest stand or water supply at risk of deterioration. In such situations, particularly in mountainous areas with shallow soils, adaptive forest management is necessary to maintain optimal ecosystem functionality under changing conditions. To aid management decisions for this purpose, the hydrological model Brook90 has been applied to determine leaf area carrying capacities under future climate scenarios for dominant tree species, at various development stages, on forested sites at various elevations, with various soil types, in the Northern Limestone Alps. Brook90 was parameterized for the City of Vienna's water protection forests and calibrated using climate records for the area. Stress events were identified from model output and used to project leaf area under climate scenarios. Using stand development scenarios, in combination with future climate scenarios for the region, specific leaf area carrying capacities were determined for each unique combination of tree species, forest development stage, elevation and soil type. The model results were used to create a decision support tool for forest managers. The tool is a booklet of charts, which enable forest managers to look up the optimal species combination and leaf area according to the carrying capacity of any given site by using the appropriate chart. Adaptive forest management can be carried out by regenerating a forest stand with tolerant tree species best suited to the site, and by keeping stand density below critical thresholds. The modelling approach allows better understanding of hydrological processes in forests of the Limestone Alps, while the decision support tool aids forest management decisions leading to protection of water supplies.
Delaney, C. M.; Eckm�llner, O.; Katzensteiner, K.; Nachtmann, G.
Scenario analysis of the impacts of forest management and climate change on the European forest sector carbon budget
Analysis of the impacts of forest management and climate change on the European forest sector carbon budget between 1990 and 2050 are presented in this article. Forest inventory based carbon budgeting with large scale scenario modelling was used. Altogether 27 countries and 128.5 million hectare of forests are included in the analysis. Two forest management and climate scenarios were applied.
Timo Karjalainen; Ari Pussinen; Jari Liski; Gert-Jan Nabuurs; Thies Eggers; Tuija Lapvetel�inen; Terhi Kaipainen
Bio-Drying Role in Changeable Scenarios of Romanian MSW Management
The aim of this paper is to propose solutions for Romanian MSW treatment based on the bio-drying process as a tool for supporting\\u000a the transient period necessary for complying with the EU regulations. In particular, the purpose of this paper is to compare\\u000a four scenarios suitable for municipal solid waste (MSW) treatment. This case-study is interesting as waste management in
E. C. RadaM; M. Venturi; M. Ragazzi; T. Apostol; C. Stan; C. Marculescu
Evaluation of groundwater artificial recharge management scenario for sustainable water resources development in Gaza Strip
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
The water resources in Gaza Strip are currently facing extreme over-exploitation which has led to a sharp decline of the groundwater level in this Mediterranean coastal aquifer overtime. Salinity of the groundwater is very high as a result of subsequent seawater intrusion of the aquifer. The contamination of the Gaza Strip groundwater by seawater has wide-ranging effects on the regional economy as well as agricultural productivity. In order to guarantee the sustainability of regional development, which requires the access to clean water, groundwater artificial recharge (AR) is being considered as a potential solution to this current water resources problem. The objective of the present study is to analyze several strategies for the implementation and management of AR in Gaza Strip and their potential impacts on agriculture, environment, and the socio-economy. Based on the water policy on wastewater reclamation and reuse (Yr. 2005 - 2025), six AR management strategies were developed in close cooperation with the local stakeholder community. These scenarios take into consideration the development of the new North Gaza Wastewater Treatment Plant and were also judged with respect to a base-line scenario, otherwise known as the "Do Nothing Approach." Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) on ranking of the AR management scenarios was used. Twenty-one criteria ranging over a wide spectrum and four categories (Environmental, Public Health, Social, and Economical) were defined to ensure sound evaluation of each of the six AR management scenarios. A detailed geo-database was prepared to analyze all the related spatial, non-spatial, and temporal data. Socio-economic studies, field surveys, mathematical modeling, and GIS analysis were used for the criteria quantification. In the MCDA, Analytical Hierarchy Method (AHP) combined with weighted Linear Combination (WLC) and Composite Programming (CP) was employed. The six AR management strategies were thus compared to the "Do Nothing Approach" based on the defined environmental, health, social, and economical criteria, the most important being related to the environment and the economy. The robustness of the achieved ranking of AR management options has been tested by changing the selected criteria, criteria importance and criteria structure. The final analysis shows that all six AR management strategies are better than "doing nothing". The implementation of groundwater artificial recharge with maximum possible infiltration of secondary treated effluent in conjunction with sustainable reuse of the recharged water for agricultural development is the most effective AR solution to the water resources problems of the Gaza Strip.
Rusteberg, Bernd; Azizur Rahman, M.; Abusaada, Muath; Rabi, Ayman; Rahman Tamimi, A.; Sauter, Martin
Financial Management Systems: DHS Faces Challenges to Successfully Consolidating Its Existing Disparate Systems.
National Technical Information Service (NTIS)
In June 2007, GAO reported that the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) had made little progress in integrating its existing financial management systems and made six recommendations focused on the need for DHS to define a departmentwide strategy and em...
Scenario-based design: A method for connecting information system design with public health operations and emergency management
Responding to public health emergencies requires rapid and accurate assessment of workforce availability under adverse and changing circumstances. However, public health information systems to support resource management during both routine and emergency operations are currently lacking. We applied scenario-based design as an approach to engage public health practitioners in the creation and validation of an information design to support routine and emergency public health activities. Methods: Using semi-structured interviews we identified the information needs and activities of senior public health managers of a large municipal health department during routine and emergency operations. Results: Interview analysis identified twenty-five information needs for public health operations management. The identified information needs were used in conjunction with scenario-based design to create twenty-five scenarios of use and a public health manager persona. Scenarios of use and persona were validated and modified based on follow-up surveys with study participants. Scenarios were used to test and gain feedback on a pilot information system. Conclusion: The method of scenario-based design was applied to represent the resource management needs of senior-level public health managers under routine and disaster settings. Scenario-based design can be a useful tool for engaging public health practitioners in the design process and to validate an information system design.
Reeder, Blaine; Turner, Anne M
Participatory geographic information systems for agricultural water management scenario development: A Tanzanian case study
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
One of the keys to environmental management is to understand the impact and interaction of people with natural resources as a means to improve human welfare and the consequent environmental sustainability for future generations. In terms of water management one of the on-going challenges is to assess what impact interventions in agriculture, and in particularly different irrigation strategies, will have on livelihoods and water resources in the landscape. Whilst global and national policy provide the overall vision of desired outcomes for environmental management, agricultural development and water use strategies they are often presented with local challenges to embed these policies in the reality on the ground, with different stakeholder groups. The concept that government agencies, advocacy organizations, and private citizens should work together to identify mutually acceptable solutions to environmental and water resource issues is increasing in prominence. Participatory spatial engagement techniques linked to geographic information systems (commonly termed participatory GIS (PGIS)) offers one solution to facilitate such stakeholder dialogues in an efficient and consultative manner. In the context of agricultural water management multi-scale PGIS techniques have recently been piloted as part of the �Agricultural Water Management Solutions� project to investigate the current use and dependencies of water by small-holder farmers a watershed in Tanzania. The piloted approach then developed PGIS scenarios describing the effects on livelihoods and water resources in the watershed when introducing different management technologies. These relatively rapid PGIS multi-scale methods show promise for assessing current and possible future agriculture water management technologies in terms of their bio-physical and socio-economic impacts at the watershed scale. The paper discusses the development of the methodology in the context of improved water management decision making.
Cinderby, Steve; Bruin, Annemarieke de; Mbilinyi, Boniface; Kongo, Victor; Barron, Jennie
Event-based knowledge elicitation of operating room management decision-making using scenarios adapted from information systems data
Background No systematic process has previously been described for a needs assessment that identifies the operating room (OR) management decisions made by the anesthesiologists and nurse managers at a facility that do not maximize the efficiency of use of OR time. We evaluated whether event-based knowledge elicitation can be used practically for rapid assessment of OR management decision-making at facilities, whether scenarios can be adapted automatically from information systems data, and the usefulness of the approach. Methods A process of event-based knowledge elicitation was developed to assess OR management decision-making that may reduce the efficiency of use of OR time. Hypothetical scenarios addressing every OR management decision influencing OR efficiency were created from published examples. Scenarios are adapted, so that cues about conditions are accurate and appropriate for each facility (e.g., if OR 1 is used as an example in a scenario, the listed procedure is a type of procedure performed at the facility in OR 1). Adaptation is performed automatically using the facility's OR information system or anesthesia information management system (AIMS) data for most scenarios (43 of 45). Performing the needs assessment takes approximately 1 hour of local managers' time while they decide if their decisions are consistent with the described scenarios. A table of contents of the indexed scenarios is created automatically, providing a simple version of problem solving using case-based reasoning. For example, a new OR manager wanting to know the best way to decide whether to move a case can look in the chapter on "Moving Cases on the Day of Surgery" to find a scenario that describes the situation being encountered. Results Scenarios have been adapted and used at 22 hospitals. Few changes in decisions were needed to increase the efficiency of use of OR time. The few changes were heterogeneous among hospitals, showing the usefulness of individualized assessments. Conclusions Our technical advance is the development and use of automated event-based knowledge elicitation to identify suboptimal OR management decisions that decrease the efficiency of use of OR time. The adapted scenarios can be used in future decision-making.
Simulated responses of soil organic carbon stock to tillage management scenarios in the Northwest Great Plains
Background Tillage practices greatly affect carbon (C) stocks in agricultural soils. Quantification of the impacts of tillage on C stocks at a regional scale has been challenging because of the spatial heterogeneity of soil, climate, and management conditions. We evaluated the effects of tillage management on the dynamics of soil organic carbon (SOC) in croplands of the Northwest Great Plains ecoregion of the United States using the General Ensemble biogeochemical Modeling System (GEMS). Tillage management scenarios included actual tillage management (ATM), conventional tillage (CT), and no-till (NT). Results Model simulations show that the average amount of C (kg C ha-1yr-1) released from croplands between 1972 and 2000 was 246 with ATM, 261 with CT, and 210 with NT. The reduction in the rate of C emissions with conversion of CT to NT at the ecoregion scale is much smaller than those reported at plot scale and simulated for other regions. Results indicate that the response of SOC to tillage practices depends significantly on baseline SOC levels: the conversion of CT to NT had less influence on SOC stocks in soils having lower baseline SOC levels but would lead to higher potentials to mitigate C release from soils having higher baseline SOC levels. Conclusion For assessing the potential of agricultural soils to mitigate C emissions with conservation tillage practices, it is critical to consider both the crop rotations being used at a local scale and the composition of all cropping systems at a regional scale.
Tan, Zhengxi; Liu, Shuguang; Li, Zhengpeng; Loveland, Thomas R
A scenario-based modeling approach for emergency evacuation management and risk analysis under multiple uncertainties.
Nuclear emergency evacuation is important to prevent radioactive harms by hazardous materials and to limit the accidents' consequences; however, uncertainties are involved in the components and processes of such a management system. In the study, an interval-parameter joint-probabilistic integer programming (IJIP) method is developed for emergency evacuation management under uncertainties. Optimization techniques of interval-parameter programming (IPP) and joint-probabilistic constrained (JPC) programming are incorporated into an integer linear programming framework, so that the approach can deal with uncertainties expressed as joint probability and interval values. The IJIP method can schedule the optimal routes to guarantee the maximum population evacuated away from the effected zone during a finite time. Furthermore, it can also facilitate post optimization analysis to enhance robustness in controlling system violation risk imposed on the joint-probabilistic constraints. The developed method has been applied to a case study of nuclear emergency management; meanwhile, a number of scenarios under different system conditions have been analyzed. It is indicated that the solutions are useful for evacuation management practices. The result of the IJIP method can not only help to raise the capability of disaster responses in a systematic manner, but also provide an insight into complex relationships among evacuation planning, resources utilizations, policy requirements and system risks. PMID:23314394
Lv, Y; Huang, G H; Guo, L; Li, Y P; Dai, C; Wang, X W; Sun, W
Assessment of carbon stores in tree biomass for two management scenarios in Russia
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Accurate quantification of terrestrial carbon storage and its change is of key importance to improved understanding of global carbon dynamics. Forest management influences carbon sequestration and release patterns, and gap models are well suited for evaluating carbon storage. An individual-based gap model of forest dynamics, FAREAST, is applied across Russia to estimate aboveground carbon storage under management scenarios. Current biomass from inventoried forests across Russia is compared to model-based estimates and potential levels of biomass are estimated for a set of simplified forestry practices. Current carbon storage in eastern Russia was lower than for the northwest and south, and lower than model estimates likely due to high rates of disturbance. Model-derived carbon storage in all regions was not significantly different between the simulated �current� and hypothetical �even-aged� management strategies using rotations of 150 and 210 years. Simulations allowing natural maturation and harvest after 150 years show a significant increase in aboveground carbon in all regions. However, it is unlikely that forests would be left unharvested to 150 years of age to attain this condition. These applications indicate the value of stand simulators, applied over broad regions such as Russia, as tools to evaluate the effect of management regimes on aboveground carbon storage.
Shuman, Jacquelyn K.; Shugart, Herman H.; Krankina, Olga N.
Using scenarios to make decisions about the future: anticipatory learning for the adaptive co-management of community forests
Current trends to improve the adaptiveness of community forest management focus on monitoring past actions and emphasize internal dynamics. We show how scenario methods can be used to (1) enable managers to better understand landscape and larger scale forces for change and to work with stakeholders at these levels and (2) improve adaptiveness not only by responding to changes, but
Eva Wollenberg; David Edmunds; Louise Buck
The economics of managing carbon via forestry: Assessment of existing studies
The purpose of this paper is to assess the existing studies on the economics of using forests as a means of mitigating atmospheric carbon build-up. This assessment addresses conceptual and empirical issues and provides a basis for a comprehensive and cost efficient forest management strategy. Critical needs and opportunities for future research are identified.
Roger A. Sedjo; Joe Wisniewski; Alaric V. Sample; John D. Kinsman
Hydropower generation management under uncertainty via scenario analysis and parallel computation
The authors present a modeling framework for the robust solution of hydroelectric power management problems with uncertainty in the values of the water inflows and outflows. A deterministic treatment of the problem provides unsatisfactory results, except for very short time horizons. The authors describe a model based on scenario analysis that allows a satisfactory treatment of uncertainty in the model data for medium and long-term planning problems. Their approach results in a huge model with a network submodel per scenario plus coupling constraints. The size of the problem and the structure of the constraints are adequate for the use of decomposition techniques and parallel computation tools. The authors present computational results for both sequential and parallel implementation versions of the codes, running on a cluster of workstations. The codes have been tested on data obtained from the reservoir network of Iberdrola, a power utility owning 50% of the total installed hydroelectric capacity of Spain, and generating 40% of the total energy demand.
Escudero, L.F.; Garcia, C. [Univ. Complutense, Madrid (Spain)] [Univ. Complutense, Madrid (Spain); Fuente, J.L. de la [Univ. Politecnica, Madrid (Spain)] [Univ. Politecnica, Madrid (Spain); Prieto, F.J. [Univ. Carlos III, Madrid (Spain)] [Univ. Carlos III, Madrid (Spain)
Robust decision-making under uncertainty for a moorland ecosystem's water resources management under scenarios of climate variability
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
A climate-informed water resources decision-making framework can help effectively manage the complexity of water resources while adapting to climate change effects. The decision-making framework allows for more effective and inclusive water resources management, and results in better informed decisions about water allocation and adaptation strategies. This study focuses on modeling the moorland ecosystem's water resources management under climate variability, and strengthening the capacities of local actors through a robust decision-making under uncertainty framework to analyze and plan water resources use in the region of Piura, Peru. The objective is to determine the reliability of the moorland ecosystem's water supply and to provide relevant hydrological information under scenarios of climate variability and other non-climate uncertainties. As a first step, a participatory workshop was carried out with key regional actors to obtain information that would help to define the uncertainties that define availability of water resources, the potential strategies for adaptation to improve existing conditions, and the performance indicators by which to assess these uncertainties and strategies. For the identification of these factors, we used the XLRM assessment framework (eXogenous uncertainties, policy Levers, Relationships, and Measures). The XLRM framework allows us to organize the important elements of risk analysis and vulnerability in the four assessment categories. This study also used the WEAP (Water Evaluation And Planning system) platform to support water resources planning and decision-making under uncertainty e.g. climate change and other stresses in the system. Within the R component, WEAP was used to model the hydrological response of the moorland ecosystem. The model includes the results of the XLRM framework and seeks to determine the importance that the moorlands have on the regional water system. Results of this model include the head flows produced that feed the watershed management model under different sensitivity scenarios of precipitation and temperature. Vulnerability is observed on the produced base flows of the moorlands ecosystem due to a decrease in moorlands' area and to climate variability-related impacts during the 50 years of simulation. This system-level vulnerability has significant effects on the water supply available for downstream demand sites, including rural and agricultural users that rely exclusively on a reservoir.
Flores-Lopez, F.; Forni, L.; Escobar, M.; Purkey, D. R.
The ecological sustainability trigon--a proposed conceptual framework for creating and testing management scenarios.
The ability to achieve ecological sustainability and the sustainable development of marine and estuarine ecosystems constitutes a complex major challenge and depends on many driving forces, often conflicting with each other. In particular, there are three major drivers: (a) the search for human well-being, health and safety, (b) the maintenance of ecological sustainability and environmental equilibrium, and (c) the tolerance of an increasing human population pressure and demand for wealth creation. We propose here the use of a conceptual guidance tool--the ecological sustainability trigon (EST)--as a means of building and testing environmental management scenarios. Although it requires further testing, the EST allows us to (a) address those three major drivers using human society view as a common currency, and (b) describe our behaviour, energetics (economy) and dynamics through ecological theory. Moreover, the EST appears promising for gap analysis and the means to address new research questions. PMID:19766257
Marques, J C; Basset, A; Brey, T; Elliott, M
Methodology To Define Drought Management Scenarios Based On Accumulated Future Projections Of Risk
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Drought is a serious threat to many water resources systems in the world. Especially to those in which the equilibrium between resources availability and water uses is very fragile, making that deviation below normality compromises the capacity of the system to cope with all the demands and environmental requirements. Since droughts are not isolated events but instead they develop through time in what could be considered a creeping behavior, it is very difficult to determine when an episode starts and how long will it last. Because this is a major concern for water managers and society in general, scientific research has strived to develop indices that allow evaluating the risk of a drought event occurrence. These indices often have as basis previous and current state variables of the system that combined between them supply decision making responsible with an indication of the risk of being in a situation of drought, normally through the definition of a drought scenario situation. While this way of proceeding has found to be effective in many systems, there are cases in which indicators systems fail to define the appropriate on-going drought scenario early enough to start measures that allowed to minimize the possible impacts. This is the case, for example, of systems with high seasonal precipitation variability. The use of risk assessment models to evaluate future possible states of the system becomes handy in cases like the previous one, although they are not limited to such systems. We present a method to refine the drought scenario definition within a water resources system. To implement this methodology, we use a risk assessment model generalized to water resources systems based in the stochastic generation of multiple possible future streamflows generation and the simulation of the system from a Monte-Carlo approach. We do this assessment every month of the year up to the end of the hydrologic year that normally corresponds with the end of the irrigation campaign and the beginning of next year water allocation negotiation processes. From the evolution of the risk profile of the system along the time we can define more approximately the current drought scenario. We applied the methodology presented to the Orbigo River Basin in Spain with promising results.
Haro-Monteagudo, David; Solera-Solera, Abel; Andreu-�lvarez, Joaqu�n
Using reconstructed streamflow time-series to develop operational scenarios for near-future water management in Tasmania
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Water resources management requires balancing a wide range of competing social, environmental, and economic demands. The development of realistic management scenarios often depends on limited data with multiple uncertainties. In Tasmania, southeastern Australia, the lack of long-term streamflow time-series reduces confidence in decision-making for water resources management. The longest time-series of measured river flow covers ~70 years, but most monitoring sites have only been operational for <40 years. Here we present a preliminary streamflow reconstruction from a tree-ring wood properties chronology that extends the streamflow record for the second largest catchment in Tasmania by ~500 years. We then consider several analytical approaches to incorporating this reconstruction into water management tools and processes. In particular, we focus on characterising the uncertainties in the streamflow reconstruction to provide a context for droughts and floods in the observational record and ensure adequate coverage of potential future variability in our water management scenarios.
Baker, Patrick; Allie, Stuart; Parkyn, Roger; Allen, Kathy; Goddard, Michael; Ling, Fiona; Cook, Edward
Childhood exposure to DEHP, DBP and BBP under existing chemical management systems: a comparative study of sources of childhood exposure in Korea and in Denmark.
In this paper, the cumulative risks of Di(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (DEHP), Di-n-butyl phthalate (DBP), and Benzyl-butyl phthalate (BBP) to 2-year-old children in two countries: one European (Denmark) and one Asian (South Korea) were compared. Denmark does not produce phthalates as a raw material, while Korea produces more than 0.4milliontons of the three above-mentioned phthalates each year. First, a comparative review of the existing phthalate regulations in the two countries was performed. Next, the level of childhood phthalate exposure from environmental and food sources was estimated using an exposure scenario approach. Then, the scenario based exposure level was compared with back-calculated exposure levels based on biomonitored urinary phthalate metabolite concentrations. The result verifies the existence of varying territorial human background exposure levels and the gap between exposure estimations based on exposure modeling and biomonitoring data. Cumulative childhood risk levels in Denmark were lower than in Korea. For both countries, risk levels from back calculation were higher than those from scenario estimation. The median cumulative risk levels from scenario estimation and back calculation respectively were 0.24 and up to 0.5 in Denmark while 0.52 and up to 0.95 in Korea. Food and indoor dust were the main exposure sources for all three phthalates. In order to protect human health from cumulative risks of these phthalates, the exposure scenarios in existing regulations such as the EU REACH need to be strengthened. Moreover, based on the contributions from different exposure sources, national specific risk management tools need to be developed and strengthened, applying a systemic approach to promote sustainable material flows. PMID:24270398
Lee, Jihyun; Lee, Jong-Hyeon; Kim, Chan-Kook; Thomsen, Marianne
Scenarios of future climate and land-management effects on carbon stocks in northern Patagonian shrublands.
We analyzed the possible effects of grazing management and future climate change on carbon (C) stocks in soils of northern Patagonian shrublands. To this aim, we coupled the outputs of three (HadCM3, CSIRO Mk2, and CCSR/NIES) global climate models to the CENTURY (v5.3) model of terrestrial C balance. The CENTURY model was initialized with long-term field data on local biome physiognomy, seasonal phenologic trends, and prevailing land-management systems and was validated with recent sequences of 1-km Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (MODIS-Terra) images and soil C data. In the tested scenarios, the predicted climate changes would result in increased total C in soil organic matter (SOMTC). Maximum SOMTC under changed climate forcing would not differ significantly from that expected under baseline conditions (8 kg m(-2)). A decrease in grazing intensity would result in SOMTC increases of 11% to 12% even if climate changes did not occur. Climate change would account for SOMTC increases of 5% to 6%. PMID:17786512
Carrera, Analia; Ares, Jorge; Labraga, Juan; Thurner, Stephanie; Bertiller, M�nica
Steps toward �useful� hydroclimatic scenarios for water resource management in the Murray-Darling Basin
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
There is currently a distinct gap between what climate science can provide and information that is practically useful for (and needed by) natural resource managers. Improved understanding, and model representations, of interactions between the various climate drivers (both regional and global scale), combined with increased knowledge about the interactions between climate processes and hydrological processes at the regional scale, is necessary for improved attribution of climate change impacts, forecasting at a range of temporal scales and extreme event risk profiling (e.g., flood, drought, and bushfire). It is clear that the science has a long way to go in closing these research gaps; however, in the meantime water resource managers in the Murray-Darling Basin, and elsewhere, require hydroclimatic projections (i.e., seasonal to multidecadal future scenarios) that are regionally specific and, importantly, take into account the impacts, and associated uncertainties, of both natural climate variability and anthropogenic change. The strengths and weaknesses of various approaches for supplying this information are discussed in this paper.
Kiem, Anthony S.; Verdon-Kidd, Danielle C.
An Introduction to Pre-existing Local Management Systems in Southeast Asia
\\u000a Although known from colonial times, pre-existing systems of fisheries management in tropical nations have not usually been\\u000a used as an alternative to introduced Western scientific approaches. During the colonial era non-Western models were disparaged\\u000a openly, whereas nowadays commonly they are dismissively labeled as �traditional� or �special� cases. Often predicated on misguided\\u000a theories, during the 1950s and 1960s a massive and
Kenneth Ruddle; Arif Satria
Experiences with TRIDEC's Crisis Management Demonstrator in the Turkish NEAMWave12 exercise tsunami scenario
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
On November 27-28, 2012, the Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute (KOERI) joined other countries in the North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean and Connected Seas (NEAM) region as participants in an international tsunami response exercise. The exercise, titled NEAMWave12, simulated widespread Tsunami Watch situations throughout the NEAM region. It is the first international exercise as such, in this region, where the UNESCO-IOC ICG/NEAMTWS tsunami warning chain has been tested to a full scale for the first time with different systems. One of the systems is developed in the project Collaborative, Complex, and Critical Decision-Support in Evolving Crises (TRIDEC) and has been validated in this exercise among others by KOERI. KOERI, representing the Tsunami National Contact (TNC) and Tsunami Warning Focal Point (TWFP) for Turkey, is one of the key partners in TRIDEC. KOERI is responsible for the operation of a National Tsunami Warning Centre (NTWC) for Turkey and establishes candidate Tsunami Watch Provider (TWP) responsibilities for the Eastern Mediterranean, Aegean, Marmara and Black Seas. Based on this profound experience KOERI is contributing valuable requirements to the overall TRIDEC system and is responsible for the definition and development of feasible tsunami-related scenarios in the context of UNESCO-IOC ICG/NEAMTWS activities. However, KOERI's, most important input focuses on testing and evaluating the TRIDEC system according to specified evaluation and validation criteria in order to meet ICG/NEAMTWS requirements. The TRIDEC system will be implemented in three phases, each with a demonstrator. Successively, the demonstrators are addressing related challenges. The first and second phase system demonstrator, deployed at KOERI's crisis management room has been designed and implemented, firstly, to support plausible scenarios for the Turkish NTWC to demonstrate the treatment of simulated tsunami threats with an essential subset of a NTWC. Secondly, the feasibility and the potentials of the implemented approach are demonstrated covering ICG/NEAMTWS standard operations as well as tsunami detection and alerting functions beyond ICG/NEAMTWS requirements. The demonstrator presented addresses information management and decision-support processes for a hypothetical tsunami-related crisis situation in the context of the ICG/NEAMTWS NEAMWave12 exercise. Experiences and results gained with the TRIDEC system during the exercise will be reported.
Hammitzsch, Martin; Necmioglu, Ocal; Lendholt, Matthias; Rei�land, Sven; Schulz, Jana; Aksari, Dogan; Koseoglu, Aysegul; Ozer, Ceren; Comoglu, Mustafa; Meral Ozel, Nurcan; W�chter, Joachim
Incorporating Seasonal Forecast of Inflow into Existing Water Resource Management at Ubolratana Dam, Thailand
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Seasonal forecast of streamflow, coupled with dynamic reservoir operation policy, has been shown to improve water allocation and flood control. By considering current and expected future reservoir level, water managers can make more adaptive and informed judgments about reservoir operation and allocation policy. While seasonal forecast application has shown substantial positive results, its adoption is still lagging due to the difficulties in integrating forecast into the current reservoir management system. This project offers a simple framework for incorporating seasonal streamflow forecasts into existing operation to optimize reservoir management decisions at the Ubolratana Dam in the Northeastern region of Thailand. The framework allows for the retention of existing reservoir policy while altering the application of the upper rule curve based on forecast information. Our objective is to maximize water release for hydropower generation, minimize spill and shortages while meeting demands for irrigation and water quality control during the peak summer monsoon season. Climate variables, including sea-surface temperature and sea-level pressure in March-May, are used to develop streamflow forecast ensembles for September-November. We use a dynamically linked system of forecast and reservoir management models to specify operating rules for end of the month storage levels at the Ubolratana Reservoir. Benefits and reliability based on the forecast ensembles are compared with historical operations and a climatological-based approach. Forecast ensembles are also divided into terciles to evaluate performance during dry and wet years, of particular interest to water managers. Results demonstrate that the dynamic operations contingent on forecasts may increase water releases for hydropower, decrease spill and deficit, and improve reliability compared with the status quo.
Chatikavanij, V.; Block, P. J.; Lall, U.
Providing image management and communication functionality as an integral part of an existing hospital information system
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
The effective delivery of health care has become increasingly dependent on a wide range of medical data which includes a variety of images. Manual and computer-based medical records ordinarily do not contain image data, leaving the physician to deal with a fragmented patient record widely scattered throughout the hospital. The Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) is currently installing a prototype hospital information system (HIS) workstation network to demonstrate the feasibility of providing image management and communications (IMAC) functionality as an integral part of an existing hospital information system. The core of this system is a database management system adapted to handle images as a new data type. A general model for this integration is discussed and specifics of the hospital-wide network of image display workstations are given.
Dayhoff, Ruth E.; Maloney, Daniel L.
Configuration Data Management (CDM) on a Shoestring Identifying and Utilizing an Existing Configuration and Data Management Infrastructure
The spreading need for and use of configuration and data management (CDM) standards has highlighted a number of challenges to the companies that need to implement those standards. For companies and organizations that are new to CDM or have limited CDM capabilities, one of the major dilemmas faced is identifying how and where to start. In many cases there is a need to contend with a legacy of poorly identified items and information and an immature or non-existent CDM infrastructure (processes, procedures, people, and information systems). To the company management and CDM professional this poses a seemingly insurmountable task of putting in place a CDM infrastructure that provides the needed benefits while keeping within an acceptable cost and schedule. This paper deals with initially establishing the CDM infrastructure using the tools that a company already has available. The paper identifies features of common software applications that can be used to implement CDM principles.
Topical report on release scenario analysis of long-term management of high-level defense waste at the Hanford Site
Potential release scenarios for the defense high-level waste (HLW) on the Hanford Site are presented. Presented in this report are the three components necessary for evaluating the various alternatives under consideration for long-term management of Hanford defense HLW: identification of scenarios and events which might directly or indirectly disrupt radionuclide containment barriers; geotransport calculations of waste migration through the site media; and consequence (dose) analyses based on groundwater and air pathways calculations. The scenarios described in this report provide the necessary parameters for radionuclide transport and consequence analysis. Scenarios are categorized as either bounding or nonbounding. Bounding scenarios consider worst case or what if situations where an actual and significant release of waste material to the environment would happen if the scenario were to occur. Bounding scenarios include both near-term and long-term scenarios. Near-term scenarios are events which occur at 100 years from 1990. Long term scenarios are potential events considered to occur at 1000 and 10,000 years from 1990. Nonbounding scenarios consider events which result in insignificant releases or no release at all to the environment. Three release mechanisms are described in this report: (1) direct exposure of waste to the biosphere by a defined sequence of events (scenario) such as human intrusion by drilling; (2) radionuclides contacting an unconfined aquifer through downward percolation of groundwater or a rising water table; and (3) cataclysmic or explosive release of radionuclides by such mechanisms as meteorite impact, fire and explosion, criticality, or seismic events. Scenarios in this report present ways in which these release mechanisms could occur at a waste management facility. The scenarios are applied to the two in-tank waste management alternatives: in-situ disposal and continued present action.
Wallace, R.W.; Landstrom, D.K.; Blair, S.C.; Howes, B.W.; Robkin, M.A.; Benson, G.L.; Reisenauer, A.E.; Walters, W.H.; Zimmerman, M.G.
A synthesized mating pheromone component increases adult sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) trap capture in management scenarios
Application of chemical cues to manipulate adult sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) behavior is among the options considered for new sea lamprey control techniques in the Laurentian Great Lakes. A male mating pheromone component, 7a,12a,24-trihydroxy-3-one-5a-cholan-24-sulfate (3kPZS), lures ovulated female sea lamprey upstream into baited traps in experimental contexts with no odorant competition. A critical knowledge gap is whether this single pheromone component influences adult sea lamprey behavior in management contexts containing free-ranging sea lampreys. A solution of 3kPZS to reach a final in-stream concentration of 10-12 mol�L-1 was applied to eight Michigan streams at existing sea lamprey traps over 3 years, and catch rates were compared between paired 3kPZS-baited and unbaited traps. 3kPZS-baited traps captured significantly more sexually immature and mature sea lampreys, and overall yearly trapping efficiency within a stream averaged 10% higher during years when 3kPZS was applied. Video analysis of a trap funnel showed that the likelihood of sea lamprey trap entry after trap encounter was higher when the trap was 3kPZS baited. Our approach serves as a model for the development of similar control tools for sea lamprey and other aquatic invaders.
Johnson, Nicholas S.; Siefkes, Michael J.; Wagner, C. Michael; Dawson, Heather; Wang, Huiyong; Steeves, Todd; Twohey, Michael; Li, Weiming
Administrative Problem-Solving for Writing Programs and Writing Centers: Scenarios in Effective Program Management.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Addressing the issues and problems faced by writing program administrators (WPAs) and writing center directors (WCDs), and how they can most effectively resolve the political, pedagogical, and financial questions that arise, this book presents essays from experienced WPAs and WCDs at a wide variety of institutions that offer scenarios and case�
Myers-Breslin, Linda
Evolving practices in environmental scenarios: a new scenario typology
A new approach to scenarios focused on environmental concerns, changes and challenges, i.e. so-called 'environmental scenarios', is necessary if global environmental changes are to be more effectively appreciated and addressed through sustained and collaborative action. On the basis of a comparison of previous approaches to global environmental scenarios and a review of existing scenario typologies, we propose a new scenario
Angela Wilkinson; Esther Eidinow
Behavioral and environmental influences on fishing rewards and the outcomes of alternative management scenarios for large tropical rivers.
Identifying the factors that influence the amount of fish caught, and thus the fishers' income, is important for proposing or improving management plans. Some of these factors influencing fishing rewards may be related to fishers' behavior, which is driven by economic motivations. Therefore, those management rules that have less of an impact on fishers' income could achieve better acceptance and compliance from fishers. We analyzed the relative influence of environmental and socioeconomic factors on fish catches (biomass) in fishing communities of a large tropical river. We then used the results from this analysis to propose alternative management scenarios in which we predicted potential fishers' compliance (high, moderate and low) based on the extent to which management proposals would affect fish catches and fishers' income. We used a General Linear Model (GLM) to analyze the influence of environmental (fishing community, season and habitat) and socioeconomic factors (number of fishers in the crew, time spent fishing, fishing gear used, type of canoe, distance traveled to fishing grounds) on fish catches (dependent variable) in 572 fishing trips by small-scale fishers in the Lower Tocantins River, Brazilian Amazon. According to the GLM, all factors together accounted for 43% of the variation in the biomass of the fish that were caught. The behaviors of fishers' that are linked to fishing effort, such as time spent fishing (42% of the total explained by GLM), distance traveled to the fishing ground (12%) and number of fishers (10%), were all positively related to the biomass of fish caught and could explain most of the variation on it. The environmental factor of the fishing habitat accounted for 10% of the variation in fish caught. These results, when applied to management scenarios, indicated that some combinations of the management measures, such as selected lakes as no-take areas, restrictions on the use of gillnets (especially during the high-water season) and individual quotas larger than fishers' usual catches, would most likely have less impact on fishers' income. The proposed scenarios help to identify feasible management options, which could promote the conservation of fish, potentially achieving higher fishers' compliance. PMID:23764509
Hallwass, Gustavo; Lopes, Priscila F M; Juras, Anast�cio A; Silvano, Renato A M
Ensemble modeling of the Baltic Sea ecosystem to provide scenarios for management.
We present a multi-model ensemble study for the Baltic Sea, and investigate the combined impact of changing climate, external nutrient supply, and fisheries on the marine ecosystem. The applied regional climate system model contains state-of-the-art component models for the atmosphere, sea ice, ocean, land surface, terrestrial and marine biogeochemistry, and marine food-web. Time-dependent scenario simulations for the period 1960-2100 are performed and uncertainties of future projections are estimated. In addition, reconstructions since 1850 are carried out to evaluate the models sensitivity to external stressors on long time scales. Information from scenario simulations are used to support decision-makers and stakeholders and to raise awareness of climate change, environmental problems, and possible abatement strategies among the general public using geovisualization. It is concluded that the study results are relevant for the Baltic Sea Action Plan of the Helsinki Commission. PMID:24414803
Meier, H E Markus; Andersson, Hel�n C; Arheimer, Berit; Donnelly, Chantal; Eilola, Kari; Gustafsson, Bo G; Kotwicki, Lech; Neset, Tina-Simone; Niiranen, Susa; Piwowarczyk, Joanna; Savchuk, Oleg P; Schenk, Frederik; W?s?awski, Jan Marcin; Zorita, Eduardo
Future scenarios of soil water availability at managed grassland ecosystems in the Austrian Alps
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Available soil water is a major constraint for numerous ecosystem functions and is likely to be considerably affected by projected shifts in temperature and precipitation. Quantifying likely future changes in soil water content is therefore essential for assessing impacts of climate change on ecosystem functions. We present a data fusion approach addressing changes in soil water content of temperate grasslands in the Austrian Alps under future climate scenarios. We use a simple soil bucket model, characterized by an efficient structure and minimal requirements regarding meteorological inputs (solar radiation, precipitation and air temperature). The model is therefore suitable for the analysis of a wide range of ecological datasets. Model parameter were constrained by up to three different datasets (soil water content, evapotranspiration and snow water equivalent) using a Bayesian inversion scheme. Given a repository of data collected at ten sites in the Eastern Alps as well as a set of downscaled and error corrected (quantile mapping) regional climate scenarios, developed for the years 1961 - 2050 with 5 different regional/global climate models (CNRMRM, AITCCLM, KNMIRACMO, DMIHIRHAM, ETHZCLM) we simulated soil water content conditions under these future climate scenarios. Despite the simple model structure calibrated model runs do show a very good performance at the majority of investigated sites. Results show that if any trend can be found, the investigated ecosystems tend to higher soil water contents on average, associated with a distinct decrease in snow cover duration under future climate conditions. Regardless of these average trends some climate models cause an increasing frequency and a longer duration of extreme dry soil water conditions under future climate scenarios.
Hammerle, Albin; Calanca, Pierluigi; Themessl, Matthias; Gobiet, Andreas; Wohlfahrt, Georg
Substantial Variability Exists in Utilities' Nuclear Decommissioning Funding Adequacy: Baseline Trends (1997-2001); and Scenario and Sensitivity Analyses (Year 2001)
This paper explores the trends over 1997-2001 in my baseline simulation analysis of the sufficiency of electric utilities' funds to eventually decommission the nation's nuclear power plants. Further, for 2001, I describe the utilities' funding adequacy results obtained using scenario and sensitivity analyses, respectively. In this paper, I focus more on the wide variability observed in these adequacy measures among utilities than on the results for the ''average'' utility in the nuclear industry. Only individual utilities, not average utilities -- often used by the nuclear industry to represent its funding adequacy -- will decommission their nuclear plants. Industry-wide results tend to mask the varied results for individual utilities. This paper shows that over 1997-2001, the variability of my baseline decommissioning funding adequacy measures (in percentages) for both utility fund balances and current contributions has remained very large, reflected in the sizable ranges and frequency distributions of these percentages. The relevance of this variability for nuclear decommissioning funding adequacy is, of course, focused more on those utilities that show below ideal balances and contribution levels. Looking backward, 42 of 67 utility fund (available) balances, in 2001, were above (and 25 below) their ideal baseline levels; in 1997, 42 of 76 were above (and 34 below) ideal levels. Of these, many utility balances were far above, and many far below, such ideal levels. The problem of certain utilities continuing to show balances much below ideal persists even with increases in the adequacy of ''average'' utility balances.
Williams, D. G.
Food and Drug Administration: Opportunities Exist to Better Address Management Challenges.
National Technical Information Service (NTIS)
GAO was asked to review the Food and Drug Administration's (FDA) strategic planning and management. Leading practices in this area include developing strategies to address management challenges and results-oriented performance measures, aligning activitie...
Multi-criteria analysis for the determination of the best WEEE management scenario in Cyprus
Waste from electrical and electronic equipment (WEEE) constitutes one of the most complicated solid waste streams in terms of its composition, and, as a result, it is difficult to be effectively managed. In view of the environmental problems derived from WEEE management, many countries have established national legislation to improve the reuse, recycling and other forms of recovery of this
K. Rousis; K. Moustakas; S. Malamis; A. Papadopoulos; M. Loizidou
Integrating Collaboration, Adaptive Management, and Scenario-Planning to Address Rapid Change: Experiences at Las Cienegas National Conservation Area
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
There is growing recognition that public lands cannot be managed as islands; rather, land management must address the ecological, social, and temporal complexity that often spans jurisdictions and traditional planning horizons. Collaborative decision-making and adaptive management (CAM) have been promoted as methods to reconcile competing societal demands and respond to complex ecosystem dynamics. We present the experiences of land managers and stakeholders in using CAM at Las Cienegas National Conservation Area (LCNCA), a highly valued site under the jurisdiction of the Bureau of Land Management (BLM). The CAM process at Las Cienegas is marked by strong stakeholder engagement, with four core elements: 1) shared watershed goals with measurable resource objectives; 2) mechanisms to incorporate new information into decision-making; 3) efforts to make information increasingly relevant and reliable; and 4) shared learning to improve both the process and management actions. The combination of stakeholder engagement and adaptive management has led to agreement on contentious issues, more innovative solutions, and more effective land management. Yet the region is now experiencing rapid changes outside managers' control�including climate change, human population growth, and reduced federal budgets�with large but unpredictable impacts on natural resources. While CAM experience provides a strong foundation for making the difficult and contentious management decisions that such changes are likely to require, neither collaboration nor adaptive management provides a sufficient structure for addressing uncontrollable and unpredictable change. As a result, LCNCA is exploring two specific modifications to CAM that may better address emerging challenges, including: 1) Creating nested resource objectives to distinguish between those objectives which may be crucial from those which may hinder a flexible response to climate change, and 2) Incorporating scenario planning into CAM to explore how climate change may interact with other drivers and alter options for the future, to identify robust management, and to prioritize ecological monitoring efforts. The experiences at LCNCA demonstrate how collaboration and adaptive management can be used to improve social and environmental outcomes and, with a few modifications, may help address the complexity and change that threatens to overwhelm even the best efforts to sustain public lands.
Caves, J. K.; Bodner, G.; Simms, K.; Fisher, L.; Robertson, T.
Nasal Foreign Bodies: A Review of Management Strategies and a Clinical Scenario Presentation
We report a case of a toothbrush head lodged into the nasal cavity, which required an external rhinoplasty for retrieval. A review of the literature on management strategies in case of nasal foreign bodies is presented.
Patil, Pavan M.; Anand, Rajeev
Testing water demand management scenarios in a water-stressed basin in South Africa: application of the WEAP model
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Like many river basins in South Africa, water resources in the Olifants river basin are almost fully allocated. Respecting the so-called �reserve� (water flow reservation for basic human needs and the environment) imposed by the Water Law of 1998 adds a further dimension, if not difficulty, to water resources management in the basin, especially during the dry periods. Decision makers and local stakeholders (i.e. municipalities, water users� associations, interest groups), who will soon be called upon to work together in a decentralized manner within Catchment Management Agencies (CMAs) and Catchment Management Committees (CMCs), must therefore be able to get a rapid and simple understanding of the water balances at different levels in the basin. This paper seeks to assess the pros and cons of using the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) model for this purpose via its application to the Steelpoort sub-basin of the Olifants river. This model allows the simulation and analysis of various water allocation scenarios and, above all, scenarios of users� behavior. Water demand management is one of the options discussed in more detail here. Simulations are proposed for diverse climatic situations from dry years to normal years and results are discussed. It is evident that the quality of data (in terms of availability and reliability) is very crucial and must be dealt with carefully and with good judgment. Secondly, credible hypotheses have to be made about water uses (losses, return flow) if the results are to be meaningfully used in support of decision-making. Within the limits of data availability, it appears that some water users are not able to meet all their requirements from the river, and that even the ecological reserve will not be fully met during certain years. But the adoption of water demand management procedures offers opportunities for remedying this situation during normal hydrological years. However, it appears that demand management alone will not suffice during dry years. Nevertheless, the ease of use of the model and its user-friendly interfaces make it particularly useful for discussions and dialogue on water resources management among stakeholders; it can also be used to promote greater awareness and understanding of key issues and concerns among the public.
L�vite, Herv�; Sally, Hilmy; Cour, Julien
Agricultural groundwater management in the Upper Bhima Basin, India: current status and future scenarios
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
The basaltic aquifers of the Upper Bhima River Basin in Southern India are heavily utilized for small-scale agriculture but face increasing demand-related pressures along with uncertainty associated with climate change impacts. To evaluate likely groundwater resource impacts over the coming decades, a regional groundwater flow model for the basin was developed. Model predictions of different climate change and abstraction scenarios indicate continuation of current rates of abstraction would lead to significant groundwater overdraft, with groundwater elevations predicted to fall by -6 m over the next three decades. Groundwater elevations can however be stabilized, but would require 20-30% of the mean surface water discharge from the basin to be recharged to groundwater, along with reductions in pumping (5-10%) brought about by improved water efficiency practices and/or shifts towards lower-water use crops. Modest reductions in pumping alone cannot stabilize groundwater levels; targeted conjunctive use and improved water use efficiency are also needed.
Surinaidu, L.; Bacon, C. G. D.; Pavelic, P.
Water management in the Basin of Mexico: current state and alternative scenarios
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Water management policies in the Basin of Mexico, where Mexico City and its nearly 20 million inhabitants live, are analyzed. After a brief description of how water has been managed, possible water management plans that would change water management practices in the Basin are discussed and a call is made for a change in the defensive attitude towards water taken to date. As the aquifer�s replacement cost is considered to be the proxy for the implementation of water tariffs, this is determined, based on the cost of future water sources, and found to be 0.65-0.72 USD/m3. This is twice the amount currently charged in the Federal District (0.34 USD/m3), where 45% of the City's domestic water users are found. As another alternative, the development of an artificial recharge program is also analyzed and found to be a plausible way to increase water supply at a unitary cost of 0.605 USD/m3. Despite the presence of these alternatives, it is suggested that water management in the Basin needs to change from a water supply approach to a water demand approach.
Carrera-Hern�ndez, Jaime J.; Gaskin, S. J.
A study on the comparison of the various waste management scenarios for PET bottles using the life-cycle assessment (LCA) methodology
A comparison study on the various waste management scenarios of polyethylene terephthalate (PET) bottles has been carried out using the life-cycle assessment (LCA) methodology. The energy and material balances were set up to account for all the energy consumed and the emissions released by each stage of the production and waste management phases of the life-cycle of the PET bottles,
Hyun-Seob Song; Jae Chun Hyun
Environmental and economic modelling: A case study of municipal solid waste management scenarios in Wales
In recent years the burdens that waste puts on the environment has been widely publicised. To address the earth's dwindling resources and the growing mountains of waste many countries have introduced statutory waste minimisation and recovery targets. The general public are generally more concerned with the effects that waste has on the environment. Whereas waste managers and planners need to
Andrew Emery; Anthony Davies; Anthony Griffiths; Keith Williams
Unisys' experience in software quality and productivity management of an existing system
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
A summary of Quality Improvement techniques, implementation, and results in the maintenance, management, and modification of large software systems for the Space Shuttle Program's ground-based systems is provided.
Munson, John B.
Agricultural groundwater management in the Upper Bhima Basin, India: current status and future scenarios
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
The basaltic aquifers of the Upper Bhima River basin in southern India are heavily utilized for small-scale agriculture but face increasing demand-related pressures along with uncertainty associated with climate change impacts. To evaluate likely groundwater resource impacts over the coming decades, a regional groundwater flow model for the basin was developed. Model predictions associated with different climate change and abstraction scenarios indicate that the continuation of current rates of abstraction would lead to significant groundwater overdraft, with groundwater elevations predicted to fall by -6 m over the next three decades. Groundwater elevations can however be stabilized, but would require 20-30% of the mean surface water discharge from the basin to be recharged to groundwater, along with reductions in pumping (5-10%) brought about by improved water efficiency practices and/or shifts towards lower-water use crops. Modest reductions in pumping alone cannot stabilize groundwater levels; targeted conjunctive use and improved water use efficiency are also needed.
Surinaidu, L.; Bacon, C. G. D.; Pavelic, P.
The impacts of climate change and environmental management policies on the trophic regimes in the Mediterranean Sea: Scenario analyses
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
The impacts of climate change and environmental management policies on the Mediterranean Sea were analyzed in multi-annual simulations of carbon cycling in a planktonic ecosystem model. The modeling system is based on a high-resolution coupled physical-biogeochemical ocean model that is off-line and forced by medium-resolution global climate simulations and by estimates of continental and river inputs of freshwater and nutrients. The simulations span the periods 1990-2000 and 2090-2100, assuming the IPCC SRES A1B scenario of climatic change at the end of the century. The effects of three different options on land use, mediated through rivers, are also considered. All scenarios indicate that the increase in temperature fuels an increase in metabolic rates. The gross primary production increases approximately 5% over the present-day figures, but the changes in productivity rates are compensated by augmented community respiration rates, so the net community production is stable with respect to present-day figures. The 21st century simulations are characterized by a reduction in the system biomass and by an enhanced accumulation of semi-labile dissolved organic matter. The largest changes in organic carbon production occur close to rivers, where the influence of changes in future nutrient is higher.
Lazzari, P.; Mattia, G.; Solidoro, C.; Salon, S.; Crise, A.; Zavatarelli, M.; Oddo, P.; Vichi, M.
Model-based definition design in the product lifecycle management scenario
Model-based definition (MBD) is a new strategy of product lifecycle management (PLM) based on computer-aided design (CAD)\\u000a models transition from simple gatherers of geometrical data to comprehensive sources of information for the overall product\\u000a lifecycle. With MBD, most of the data related to a product are structured inside native CAD models, instead of being scattered\\u000a in different forms through the
M. Alemanni; F. Destefanis; E. Vezzetti
Role of Exercise in the Management of Diabetes Mellitus: the Global Scenario
Background Exercise training programs have emerged as a useful therapeutic regimen for the management of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Majority of the Western studies highlighted the effective role of exercise in T2DM. Therefore, the main aim was to focus on the extent, type of exercise and its clinical significance in T2DM in order to educate the clinicians from developing countries, especially in Asians. Methods Pubmed, Science Direct, Scopus, ISI Web of Knowledge and Google scholar were searched using the terms �type 2 diabetes mellitus,� �type 2 DM,� �exercise,� and/or �physical activity,� and �type 2 diabetes mellitus with exercise.� Only clinical or human studies published in English language between 2000 and 2012 were included. Certain criteria were assigned to achieve appropriate results. Results Twenty five studies met the selected criteria. The majority of the studies were randomized controlled trial study design (65%). Most of the aerobic exercise based studies showed a beneficial effect in T2DM. Resistance exercise also proved to have positive effect on T2DM patients. Minimal studies related to other types of exercises such as yoga classes, joba riding and endurance-type exercise were found. On the other hand, United States of America (USA) showed strong interest of exercise management towards T2DM. Conclusion Aerobic exercise is more common in clinical practice compared to resistance exercise in managing T2DM. Treatment of T2DM with exercise training showed promising role in USA. A large number of researches are mandatory in the developing countries for incorporating exercise in the effective management of T2DM.
Thent, Zar Chi; Das, Srijit; Henry, Leonard Joseph
Concentration-time exposure index for modeling soil fumigation under various management scenarios.
Best management decisions in soil fumigation require informed management selections of soil type, field geometry, application dosage, and depth to maximize fumigant distribution for efficacy and minimize off-site transport for environmental safety. An efficacy- or exposure-based concentration-time exposure index (CTEI) was used to serve as a continuous quantitative efficacy assessment for soil fumigation by subsurface drip irrigation using numerical model simulations. The CTEI was defined as the ratio between the soil volume where concentration-time (CT) exceeded a threshold value for a particular pest-fumigant combination and the total soil volume required for fumigation treatment. Applications of CTEI as a simple efficacy index were demonstrated by simulating combinations of three soil types (loam, sandy loam, sand); three field configurations consisting of 102- and 203-cm-wide bed systems and a flat surface system; three application depths (15, 30, 45 cm); and two application rates (82 and 327 kg ha(-1)) for 1,3-dichloropropene against citrus nematode (Tylenchulus semipenetrans) using a threshold air-phase CT value of 12 microg h cm(-3) obtained from a separate field study. For soil fumigation by subsurface drip irrigation, the order of importance in optimizing CTEI was soil type, depth of application and depth of treatment, dosage, and field configuration. Model simulation using CTEI as a numeric efficacy index can be an effective alternative to assist in the planning of field trials for making final management decisions concerning soil fumigation or other pesticide applications. PMID:15074821
Wang, D; He, J M; Knuteson, J A
The assessment of natural flood management measures as a climate change adaptation option through land use scenarios
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Climate change is one of the most pressing issues facing civil society. Greater variability and more frequent extremes of temperature and precipitation will result in increased flood risk and corresponding social, economic and environmental impacts. Complementing more traditional structurally-based engineering interventions an important additional adaptation strategy is through natural flood management (NFM) measures utilising natural soil, wetland and groundwater storage at the catchment scale to attenuate runoff generation and downstream flooding. Such schemes have multiple co-benefits including improved water quality, biodiversity and amenity and so contribute to greater resilience to uncertain climate futures. As a case-study of a more integrated approach to land use planning we here consider the policy target of the Scottish Government to expand woodland in Scotland by 100,000 ha by 2025 from the current 3 000 ha/year. In this paper we examine runoff response under different woodland expansion scenarios using climate projections obtained from the UK Climate Projections (UKCP09). Woodland creation has recognised potential as a NFM measure, but locating this new planting is constrained by physical and cultural constraints. Land use choices in the future will also strongly reflect emergent socio-economic contexts, here assessed through scenario analysis. The distributed hydrological model WaSiM-ETH was utilised for the analysis using the case-study of the Tarland catchment, a tributary of the River Dee. Terrain data were obtained on a 50 m grid and the model calibrated using meteorological and river gauge data from 2005 to 2007 following a manual and an automatic calibration process. This novel approach highlights that land use change should be carefully managed for planned benefits and to avoid unintended consequences, such as changing the timing of tributary flood responses. Whilst woodland expansion may only provide modest gains in flood reductions the co-benefits contribute to a coherent ecosystem-based adaptation strategy promoting landscape resilience at the landscape scale.
Iacob, Oana; Rowan, John; Brown, Iain; Ellis, Chris
Do Hot Hands Exist among Hedge Fund Managers? An Empirical Evaluation
In measuring performance persistence, we use hedge fund style benchmarks. This allows us to identify managers with valuable skills, and also to control for option-like features inherent in returns from hedge fund strategies. We take into account the possibility that reported asset values may be based on stale prices. We develop a statistical model that relates a hedge fund's performance
Research on solid waste management system: To improve existing situation in Corlu Town of Turkey
Over the past decades, uncontrolled population growth and rapid urbanization and industrialization have resulted in environmental problems in Corlu Town, Turkey. One of the most important problems is solid waste due to inadequate management practices. Nowadays, increasing public awareness of the environment compels local authorities to define and to adopt new solutions for waste management. This paper presents a general overview of current solid waste management practices in Corlu Town and principles of the recommended municipal solid waste (MSW) management system. In Corlu, 170 tonnes of municipal solid waste are generated each day, or 1.150 kg per capita per day. Approximately one-half of the municipal solid waste generated is organic material and 30% of the MSW consists of recyclable materials. The recommended system deals with maximizing recycling and minimizing landfilling of municipal solid waste, and consists of separation at source, collection, sorting, recycling, composting and sanitary landfilling. This study also analyzed the recommended system with respect to feasibility and economics. To evaluate whether the suggested system is cost effective or not, the operating cost of the recommended system and market prices of recyclable materials were compared, and the results show that the recommended system will reduce required landfill volume up to 27% of compared to the present situation. The profit of the recommended system is estimated to be about 80 million US dollars.
Tinmaz, Esra [Trakya University, Corlu Engineering Faculty, Department of Environmental Engineering, 59860 Corlu/Tekirdag (Turkey)]. E-mail: email@example.com; Demir, Ibrahim [Istanbul Technical University, Civil Engineering Faculty, Department of Environmental Engineering, Maslak/Istanbul (Turkey)]. E-mail: email@example.com
Application of knowledge management and the intelligence continuum for medical emergencies and disaster scenarios.
The world has recently witnessed several large scale natural disasters. These include the Asian tsunami which devastated many of the countries around the rim of the Indian Ocean in December 2004, extensive flooding in many parts of Europe in August 2005, hurricane katrina (September 2005), the outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in many regions of Asia and Canada in 2003 and the Pakistan earthquake (towards the end of 2005). Such emergency and disaster situations (E&DS) serve to underscore the utter chaos that ensues in the aftermath of such events, the many casualties and lives lost not to mention the devastation and destruction that is left behind. One recurring theme that is apparent in all these situations is that, irrespective of the warnings of imminent threats, countries have not been prepared and ready to exhibit effective and efficient crisis management. This paper examines the application of the tools, techniques and processes of the knowledge economy to develop a prescriptive model that will support superior decision making in E&DS, thereby enabling effective and efficient crisis management. PMID:17946683
Wickramasinghe, Nilmini; Bali, Rajeev K; Naguib, Raouf N G
Predicting foraging wading bird populations in Everglades National Park from seasonal hydrologic statistics under different management scenarios
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
The ability to map relationships between ecological outcomes and hydrologic conditions in the Everglades National Park (ENP) is a key building block for their restoration program, a primary goal of which is to improve conditions for wading birds. This paper presents a model linking wading bird foraging numbers to hydrologic conditions in the ENP. Seasonal hydrologic statistics derived from a single water level recorder are well correlated with water depths throughout most areas of the ENP, and are effective as predictors of wading bird numbers when using a nonlinear hierarchical Bayesian model to estimate the conditional distribution of bird populations. Model parameters are estimated using a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) procedure. Parameter and model uncertainty is assessed as a byproduct of the estimation process. Water depths at the beginning of the nesting season, the average dry season water level, and the numbers of reversals from the dry season recession are identified as significant predictors, consistent with the hydrologic conditions considered important in the production and concentration of prey organisms in this system. Long-term hydrologic records at the index location allow for a retrospective analysis (1952-2006) of foraging bird numbers showing low frequency oscillations in response to decadal fluctuations in hydroclimatic conditions. Simulations of water levels at the index location used in the Bayesian model under alternative water management scenarios allow the posterior probability distributions of the number of foraging birds to be compared, thus providing a mechanism for linking management schemes to seasonal rainfall forecasts.
Kwon, Hyun-Han; Lall, Upmanu; Engel, Vic
Economic comparison of long-term nuclear fuel cycle management scenarios: The influence of the discount rate
This article presents some main economic results obtained by the CEA in the DERECO project, which aimed to evaluate the global cost of contrasted and long-term nuclear fuel cycle scenarios. The scenarios have been studied for the period 2000�2150 in the French context. They all assume a sustainable nuclear development. These scenarios must not be considered as forecasts and do
Aude Le Dars; Christine Loaec
This paper examines the existing stock of fossil-fired power generation capacity in the United States within the context of climate change. At present, there are over 1,337 fossil-fired power generating units of at least 100 MW in capacity, that began operating between the early 1940's and today. Together these units provide some 453 GW of electric power, and simply retiring this stock early or repowering with advanced technology as a means of addressing their greenhouse gas emissions will not be a realistic option for them all. Considering a conservative 40-year operating life, there are over 667 fossil-fired power plants, representing a capacity of over 291 GW, that have a minimum of a decade's worth of productive life remaining. This paper draws upon specialized tools developed by Battelle to analyze the characteristics of this subset of U.S. power generation assets and explore the relationships between plant type, location, emissions, and vintage. It examines the economics of retrofit capture technologies and the proximity of these existing power plants to geologic reservoirs with promise for long-term storage of CO2. The costs for retrofitting these plants and disposing of their CO2 into nearby geologic reservoirs are presented.
Dahowski, Robert T.; Dooley, James J.; Gale, J.; Kaya, Y.
NSDL National Science Digital Library
This subset of the Black Box Software Testing collection includes resources to teach Scenario Testing. The scenario test involves a story about how the program is used, including information about the motivations of the people involved. The Soap Opera emphasizes the human issues, even beyond the traditional scenario. Resources include lecture videos, slides, activities, suggested readings, and study guide materials.
Kaner, Cem; Fiedler, Rebecca L.
Design and evaluation of simulation scenarios for a program introducing patient safety, teamwork, safety leadership, and simulation to healthcare leaders and managers.
We developed a training program to introduce managers and informal leaders of healthcare organizations to key concepts of teamwork, safety leadership, and simulation to motivate them to act as leaders to improve safety within their sphere of influence. This report describes the simulation scenario and debriefing that are core elements of that program. Twelve teams of clinician and nonclinician managers were selected from a larger set of volunteers to participate in a 1-day, multielement training program. Two simulation exercises were developed: one for teams of nonclinicians and the other for clinicians or mixed groups. The scenarios represented two different clinical situations, each designed to engage participants in discussions of their safety leadership and teamwork issues immediately after the experience. In the scenarios for nonclinicians, participants conducted an anesthetic induction and then managed an ethical situation. The scenario for clinicians simulated a consulting visit to an emergency room that evolved into a problem-solving challenge. Participants in this scenario had a limited time to prepare advice for hospital leadership on how to improve observed safety and cultural deficiencies. Debriefings after both types of scenarios were conducted using principles of "debriefing with good judgment." We assessed the relevance and impact of the program by analyzing participant reactions to the simulation through transcript data and facilitator observations as well as a postcourse questionnaire. The teams generally reported positive perceptions of the relevance and quality of the simulation with varying types and degrees of impact on their leadership and teamwork behaviors. These kinds of clinical simulation exercises can be used to teach healthcare leaders and managers safety leadership and teamwork skills and behaviors. PMID:21642906
Cooper, Jeffrey B; Singer, Sara J; Hayes, Jennifer; Sales, Michael; Vogt, Jay W; Raemer, Daniel; Meyer, Gregg S
Update on the management of restless legs syndrome: existing and emerging treatment options
Restless legs syndrome (RLS) is a sensorimotor disorder, characterized by a circadian variation of symptoms involving an urge to move the limbs (usually the legs) as well as paresthesias. There is a primary (familial) and a secondary (acquired) form, which affects a wide variety of individuals, such as pregnant women, patients with end-stage renal disease, iron deficiency, rheumatic disease, and persons taking medications. The symptoms reflect a circadian fluctuation of dopamine in the substantia nigra. RLS patients have lower dopamine and iron levels in the substantia nigra and respond to both dopaminergic therapy and iron administration. Iron, as a cofactor of dopamine production and a regulator of the expression of dopamine type 2-receptor, has an important role in the RLS etiology. In the management of the disease, the first step is to investigate possible secondary causes and their treatment. Dopaminergic agents are considered as the first-line therapy for moderate to severe RLS. If dopaminergic drugs are contraindicated or not efficacious, or if symptoms are resistant and unremitting, gabapentin or other antiepileptic agents, benzodiazepines, or opioids can be used for RLS therapy. Undiagnosed, wrongly diagnosed, and untreated RLS is associated with a significant impairment of the quality of life.
Facheris, Maurizio F; Hicks, Andrew A; Pramstaller, Peter P; Pichler, Irene
Experiential Virtual Scenarios With Real-Time Monitoring (Interreality) for the Management of Psychological Stress: A Block Randomized Controlled Trial
Background The recent convergence between technology and medicine is offering innovative methods and tools for behavioral health care. Among these, an emerging approach is the use of virtual reality (VR) within exposure-based protocols for anxiety disorders, and in particular posttraumatic stress disorder. However, no systematically tested VR protocols are available for the management of psychological stress. Objective Our goal was to evaluate the efficacy of a new technological paradigm, Interreality, for the management and prevention of psychological stress. The main feature of Interreality is a twofold link between the virtual and the real world achieved through experiential virtual scenarios (fully controlled by the therapist, used to learn coping skills and improve self-efficacy) with real-time monitoring and support (identifying critical situations and assessing clinical change) using advanced technologies (virtual worlds, wearable biosensors, and smartphones). Methods The study was designed as a block randomized controlled trial involving 121 participants recruited from two different worker populations�teachers and nurses�that are highly exposed to psychological stress. Participants were a sample of teachers recruited in Milan (Block 1: n=61) and a sample of nurses recruited in Messina, Italy (Block 2: n=60). Participants within each block were randomly assigned to the (1) Experimental Group (EG): n=40; B1=20, B2=20, which received a 5-week treatment based on the Interreality paradigm; (2) Control Group (CG): n=42; B1=22, B2=20, which received a 5-week traditional stress management training based on cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT); and (3) the Wait-List group (WL): n=39, B1=19, B2=20, which was reassessed and compared with the two other groups 5 weeks after the initial evaluation. Results Although both treatments were able to significantly reduce perceived stress better than WL, only EG participants reported a significant reduction (EG=12% vs CG=0.5%) in chronic �trait� anxiety. A similar pattern was found for coping skills: both treatments were able to significantly increase most coping skills, but only EG participants reported a significant increase (EG=14% vs CG=0.3%) in the Emotional Support skill. Conclusions Our findings provide initial evidence that the Interreality protocol yields better outcomes than the traditionally accepted gold standard for psychological stress treatment: CBT. Consequently, these findings constitute a sound foundation and rationale for the importance of continuing future research in technology-enhanced protocols for psychological stress management. Trial Registration ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT01683617; http://clinicaltrials.gov/show/NCT01683617 (Archived by WebCite at http://www.webcitation.org/6QnziHv3h).
Pallavicini, Federica; Morganti, Luca; Serino, Silvia; Scaratti, Chiara; Briguglio, Marilena; Crifaci, Giulia; Vetrano, Noemi; Giulintano, Annunziata; Bernava, Giuseppe; Tartarisco, Gennaro; Pioggia, Giovanni; Raspelli, Simona; Cipresso, Pietro; Vigna, Cinzia; Grassi, Alessandra; Baruffi, Margherita; Wiederhold, Brenda; Riva, Giuseppe
Cancer care scenario in Bangladesh
Bangladesh is a developing country that is facing many challenges, especially in the health sector. Cancer management is a priority due to the current trend of increased incidence in this region. In this article, the current scenario of cancer in Bangladesh and its management with brief history is outlined. The combined effort of government and private sector is highlighted with the gradual progress in cancer management. Recent introduction of the state-of-the-art facilities and the training facilities for human resource development are also outlined. The existing challenges and cooperation from local NGOs and other overseas sources are also highlighted to provide an insight regarding possible ways to tackle these challenges to ensure a better future.
Uddin, A. F. M. Kamal; Khan, Zohora Jameela; Islam, Johirul; Mahmud, AM
Mitigation scenario analysis: modelling the impacts of changes in agricultural management practices on surface water quality at the catchment scale
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Increasing human pressures on the natural environment through the demand for increased agricultural productivity have exacerbated and deteriorated water quality conditions within many environments due to an unbalancing of the nutrient cycle. As a consequence, increased agricultural diffuse water pollution has resulted in elevated concentrations of nutrients within surface water and groundwater bodies. This deterioration in water quality has direct consequences for the health of aquatic ecosystems and biodiversity, human health, and the use of water as a resource for public water supply and recreation. To mitigate these potential impacts and to meet commitments under the EU Drinking Water and Water Framework Directives, there is a need to improve our understanding of the impacts that agricultural land use and management practices have on water quality. Water quality models are one of the tools available which can be used to facilitate this aim. These simplified representations of the physical environment allow a variety of changes to be simulated within a catchment, including for example changes in agricultural land use and management practices, allowing for predictions of the impacts of those measures on water quality to be developed and an assessment to be made of their effectiveness in improving conditions. The aim of this research is to apply the water quality model SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) to the Wensum catchment (area 650 km2), situated in the East of England, to predict the impacts of potential changes in land use and land management practices on water quality as part of a process to select those measures that in combination will have the greatest potential to improve water quality. Model calibration and validation is conducted at three sites within the catchment against observations of river discharge and nitrate and total phosphorus loads at a monthly time-step using the optimisation algorithm SUFI-2 (Sequential Uncertainty Fitting Version 2) within the program SWAT-CUP (SWAT Calibration and Uncertainty Programs). Model performance is assessed against a variety of statistical measures including the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE) and percentage bias (PBIAS). Various mitigation scenarios are modelled within the catchment, including changes in fertiliser application rates and timing and the introduction of different tillage techniques and cover-crop regimes. The effects of the applied measures on water quality are examined and recommendations made on which measures have the greatest potential to be applied within the catchment to improve water quality. This study reports the findings of that analysis and presents techniques by which diffuse agricultural pollution can be reduced within catchments through the implementation of multiple on-farm measures. The methodology presented has the potential to be applied within other catchments, allowing tailored mitigation strategies to be developed. Ultimately, this research provides 'tested' mitigation options that can be applied within the Wensum and similar catchments to improve water quality and to ensure that certain obligatory water quality standards are achieved.
Taylor, Sam; He, Yi; Hiscock, Kevin
In facing future developments in health care, scenario planning offers a complementary approach to traditional strategic planning. Whereas traditional strategic planning typically consists of predicting the future at a single point on a chosen time horizon and mapping the preferred plans to address such a future, scenario planning creates stories about multiple likely potential futures on a given time horizon and maps the preferred plans to address the multiple described potential futures. Each scenario is purposefully different and specifically not a consensus worst-case, average, or best-case forecast; nor is scenario planning a process in probabilistic prediction. Scenario planning focuses on high-impact, uncertain driving forces that in the authors' example affect the field of radiology. Uncertainty is the key concept as these forces are mapped onto axes of uncertainty, the poles of which have opposed effects on radiology. One chosen axis was "market focus," with poles of centralized health care (government control) vs a decentralized private market. Another axis was "radiology's business model," with one pole being a unified, single specialty vs a splintered, disaggregated subspecialty. The third axis was "technology and science," with one pole representing technology enabling to radiology vs technology threatening to radiology. Selected poles of these axes were then combined to create 3 scenarios. One scenario, termed "entrepreneurialism," consisted of a decentralized private market, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. A second scenario, termed "socialized medicine," had a centralized market focus, a unified specialty business model, and enabling technology and science. A third scenario, termed "freefall," had a centralized market focus, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. These scenarios provide a range of futures that ultimately allow the identification of defined "signposts" that can suggest which basic features among the "possible futures" are playing out. Scenario planning provides for the implementation of appropriate constructed strategic responses. Scenarios allow for a pre-prepared game plan available for ready use as the future unfolds. They allow a deliberative response rather than a hastily constructed, urgent response. PMID:21371667
Enzmann, Dieter R; Beauchamp, Norman J; Norbash, Alexander
Lessons learned from Toulouse and Buncefield disasters: from risk analysis failures to the identification of atypical scenarios through a better knowledge management.
The recent occurrence of severe major accidents has brought to light flaws and limitations of hazard identification (HAZID) processes performed for safety reports, as in the accidents at Toulouse (France) and Buncefield (UK), where the accident scenarios that occurred were not captured by HAZID techniques. This study focuses on this type of atypical accident scenario deviating from normal expectations. The main purpose is to analyze the examples of atypical accidents mentioned and to attempt to identify them through the application of a well-known methodology such as the bow-tie analysis. To these aims, the concept of atypical event is accurately defined. Early warnings, causes, consequences, and occurrence mechanisms of the specific events are widely studied and general failures of risk assessment, management, and governance isolated. These activities contribute to outline a set of targeted recommendations, addressing transversal common deficiencies and also demonstrating how a better management of knowledge from the study of past events can support future risk assessment processes in the identification of atypical accident scenarios. Thus, a new methodology is not suggested; rather, a specific approach coordinating a more effective use of experience and available information is described, to suggest that lessons to be learned from past accidents can be effectively translated into actions of prevention. PMID:22211299
Paltrinieri, Nicola; Dechy, Nicolas; Salzano, Ernesto; Wardman, Mike; Cozzani, Valerio
Explorative study of the expected consequences for existing quality management systems due to the revision of ISO 9001 in certified companies in Germany
The revised ISO 9001 requires companies fundamentally to restructure their existing quality management system and to adapt it to the processes taking place in the individual company. In this context, it is of utmost importance not only to identify current weak points but also to retain the positive effects of the present quality management system. Based on the results of
Ingo Janas; Holger Luczak
Seismic risk scenario planning and sustainable tourism management: Christchurch and the Alpine Fault zone, South Island, New Zealand
This paper makes the case for natural disaster emergency planning to be incorporated into sustainable tourism strategies, using seismic risk scenario planning as a technique, and the Southern Alps of the South island of New Zealand as an example. The Alpine Fault is a 450-km-long geological structure running the length of the Southern Alps in New Zealand. Paleoseismic evidence suggests
Caroline Orchiston
Seismic risk scenario planning and sustainable tourism management: Christchurch and the Alpine Fault zone, South Island, New Zealand
This paper makes the case for natural disaster emergency planning to be incorporated into sustainable tourism strategies, using seismic risk scenario planning as a technique, and the Southern Alps of the South island of New Zealand as an example. The Alpine Fault is a 450-km-long geological structure running the length of the Southern Alps in New Zealand. Paleoseismic evidence suggests
Caroline Orchiston
The USGS Earthquake Scenario Project
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
The U.S. Geological Survey�s (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (EHP) is producing a comprehensive suite of earthquake scenarios for planning, mitigation, loss estimation, and scientific investigations. The Earthquake Scenario Project (ESP), though lacking clairvoyance, is a forward-looking project, estimating earthquake hazard and loss outcomes as they may occur one day. For each scenario event, fundamental input includes i) the magnitude and specified fault mechanism and dimensions, ii) regional Vs30 shear velocity values for site amplification, and iii) event metadata. A grid of standard ShakeMap ground motion parameters (PGA, PGV, and three spectral response periods) is then produced using the well-defined, regionally-specific approach developed by the USGS National Seismic Hazard Mapping Project (NHSMP), including recent advances in empirical ground motion predictions (e.g., the NGA relations). The framework also allows for numerical (3D) ground motion computations for specific, detailed scenario analyses. Unlike NSHMP ground motions, for ESP scenarios, local rock and soil site conditions and commensurate shaking amplifications are applied based on detailed Vs30 maps where available or based on topographic slope as a proxy. The scenario event set is comprised primarily by selection from the NSHMP events, though custom events are also allowed based on coordination of the ESP team with regional coordinators, seismic hazard experts, seismic network operators, and response coordinators. The event set will be harmonized with existing and future scenario earthquake events produced regionally or by other researchers. The event list includes approximate 200 earthquakes in CA, 100 in NV, dozens in each of NM, UT, WY, and a smaller number in other regions. Systematic output will include all standard ShakeMap products, including HAZUS input, GIS, KML, and XML files used for visualization, loss estimation, ShakeCast, PAGER, and for other systems. All products will be delivered via the EHP web pages in a user-searchable archive. In addition, we aim to duplicate most of the real-time earthquake event web page functionality for scenario drills and exercises, including all standard post-earthquake information tools. Hence, for each event, USGS PAGER runs will be produced, providing population exposure at current population levels, and Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) will produce HAZUS impact assessments. Anticipated users include FEMA, the loss modeling and insurance communities, emergency responders and mitigation planners (city, county, state, industry, utilities, corporate), the general public and the media. The Earthquake Scenario Project will also take on several pending scientific challenges related to scenario generation, including ways to include fault directivity, numerical ground motions, and ways to produce ground motion uncertainties (in addition to median peak ground motions). A parallel though less comprehensive effort is underway to produce scenarios for targeted regions and events around the globe.
Wald, D. J.; Petersen, M. D.; Wald, L. A.; Frankel, A. D.; Quitoriano, V. R.; Lin, K.; Luco, N.; Mathias, S.; Bausch, D.
Methods for interfacing IPCC climate change scenarios with higher resolution watershed management models in the Ethiopian Blue Nile Basin
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
As much as 90% of the Nile River flow that reaches Egypt originates in the Highlands of the Ethiopian Blue Nile Basin. This imbalance in water availability poses a threat to water security in the region, and could be severely impacted by projected climate change. This analysis coupled hydrodynamic/watershed models with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR4 climate change scenarios to assess the potential impact on water resources and sediment dynamics. Specific AR4 scenarios include the A1B, B1, B2 and COMMIT, which were used to force the baseline hydrodynamic models calibrated against 1979-2011 streamflow for 20 sub-watersheds in the Tana and Beles basins. Transfer functions were developed to distribute the model parameters from the calibrated sub-watersheds to un-gauged portions of the basins based on a similarity index of hydrologic response units. We analyzed the scenario in two manners: first we ran all of the seven individual Global Circulation Model results in the IPCC AR4 report though our watershed models to asses the potential spread of climate change predictions; then we assessed the mean value produced for each IPCC AR4 scenario to better estimate convergence. Results indicate that the Tana basin is expected to experience an increase in mean annual flow. The Beles basin is predicted to experience a small decrease in mean annual flow. Sediment concentrations in the Tana basin increase proportionally more than the flow increase. Interestingly, and perhaps counter to what might be expected for a decrease in flow in the Beles basin, sediment concentrations increase.
Easton, Z. M.; MacAlister, C.; Fuka, D. R.
Evaluation of Existing Structure and Civil Protection Management Framework in Greek Local Authorities: A Questionnaire Survey Demonstrates Why Prevention Fails
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
In the face of a growing number of natural disasters and the increasing costs associated with them, Europe and Greece in particular, have devoted significant efforts and resources in natural hazards mitigation during the last decades. Despite the significant legislative efforts (e.g. 1998/22/EC, 2001/792/EC, 2007/60/EC Directives, 3013/2002 Act) and even though a number of steps has been taken towards improving civil protection, recent catastrophic events have illustrated the weaknesses of current approaches. In particular, in Greece, events such as the 1999 Athens earthquake, the 2007 and 2009 wildfires have shown the inadequacy of prevention and mitigation practices. Given the enhanced civil protection responsibilities, given by the Greek national law (Acts 3013/2002, 3852/2010) to local authorities in Greece, this work analyses and evaluates the existing structure and current management framework under which local authorities function and examines their risk mitigation practices. We conducted the largest questionnaire survey regarding Civil Protections issues, among the municipalities of Greece. To this aim, this work used a innovative online tool to assess current framework. Therefore, a network connecting civil protection departments of municipalities was developed, based on an Internet platform that acted also as a communication tool. Overall, we had feedback either online or offline from 125 municipalities across the country (representing more than one/third of the total municipalities of Greece). Through this network, municipal civil protection officials completed surveys designed to obtain and quantify information on several aspects of civil protection practices and infrastructure. In particular, the examined factors included: (i) personnel and equipment, (ii) inter-agency cooperation, (iii) training, (iv) compliance with existing regulations and (v) persistent problems encountered by civil protection departments, that prevent the effectiveness of current practices. Responses showed that civil protection personnel lack adequate training and expertise, many are overstretched with several duties, while several prevention actions are carried out by seasonal or voluntary staff. Approximately half of the heads of civil protection offices do not hold a university degree, only 27% have a relevant scientific background (geoscientists or engineers) and more than half of them are elected members and not permanent staff, implying that no continuity is secured. Inter-agency cooperation is shown to be poor and organizational learning from international practices not adequate. Half of the municipalities report that the authorization processes are too slow so that prevention actions particularly regarding forest fires are severely delayed. Existing regulations are not followed by a significant portion of municipalities since 19% have not established a civil protection office and 23% have not compiled an action plan yet. Existing action plans lack important information, present no spatial data and are predominantly catalogues and tables of information regarding authorised personnel and equipment. Overall, underfunding, poor coordination of the different actors involved, lack of training and understaffing, lack of proper equipment and several other issues are held responsible by officials for preventing effectiveness of current practices. Finally, the EU emergency number 112 is widely unknown (87%). This work was held under the LIFE+ project "Local Authorities Alliance for Forest Fire Prevention - LIFE08/ENV/GR/000553" which is implemented with the contribution of the LIFE financial instrument of the European Community.
Papanikolaou, Dimitrios; Papanikolaou, Ioannis; Diakakis, Michalis; Deligiannakis, Georgios
Spent fuel receipt scenarios study
This study reports on the results of an assignment from the DOE Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management to evaluate of the effects of different scenarios for receipt of spent fuel on the potential performance of the waste packages in the proposed Yucca Mountain high-level waste repository. The initial evaluations were performed and an interim letter report was prepared during the fall of 1988. Subsequently, the scope of work was expanded and additional analyses were conducted in 1989. This report combines the results of the two phases of the activity. This study is a part of a broader effort to investigate the options available to the DOE and the nuclear utilities for selection of spent fuel for acceptance into the Federal Waste Management System for disposal. Each major element of the system has evaluated the effects of various options on its own operations, with the objective of providing the basis for performing system-wide trade-offs and determining an optimum acceptance scenario. Therefore, this study considers different scenarios for receipt of spent fuel by the repository only from the narrow perspective of their effect on the very-near-field temperatures in the repository following permanent closure. This report is organized into three main sections. The balance of this section is devoted to a statement of the study objective, a summary of the assumptions. The second section of the report contains a discussion of the major elements of the study. The third section summarizes the results of the study and draws some conclusions from them. The appendices include copies of the waste acceptance schedule and the existing and projected spent fuel inventory that were used in the study. 10 refs., 27 figs.
Ballou, L.B.; Montan, D.N.; Revelli, M.A.
Use of primary corticosteroid injection in the management of plantar fasciopathy: is it time to challenge existing practice?
Plantar fasciopathy (PF) is characterized by degeneration of the fascia at the calcaneal enthesis. It is a common cause of foot pain, accounting for 90% of clinical presentations of heel pathology. In 2009-2010, 9.3 million working days were lost in England due to musculoskeletal disorders, with 2.4 million of those attributable to lower-limb disorders, averaging 16.3 lost working days per case. Numerous studies have attempted to establish the short- and long-term clinical efficacy of corticosteroid injections in the management of PF. Earlier studies have not informed clinical practice. As the research base has developed, evidence has emerged supporting clinical efficacy. With diverse opinions surrounding the etiology and efficacy debate, there does not seem to be a consensus of opinion on a common treatment pathway. For example, in England, the National Institute for Clinical Health and Excellence does not publish strategic guidance for clinical practice. Herein, we review and evaluate core literature that examines the clinical efficacy of corticosteroid injection as a treatment for PF. Outcome measures were wide ranging but largely yielded results supportive of the short- and long-term benefits of this modality. The analysis also looked to establish, where possible, "proof of concept." This article provides evidence supporting the clinical efficacy of corticosteroid injections, in particular those guided by imaging technology. The evidence challenges existing orthodoxy, which marginalizes this treatment as a secondary option. This challenge is supported by recently revised guidelines published by the American College of Foot and Ankle Surgeons advocating corticosteroid injection as a primary treatment option. PMID:24072372
Kirkland, Paul; Beeson, Paul
Extreme Climatic Events Modelling and Economic Impacts Under Different Climate Change Scenarios: a Risk Management Application to the Rural Sector in China
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
An increasing body of literature has shown the increase of frequency of occurrence of extreme weather events such as heat waves or heavy precipitation events across the world. Several economic systems and networks present high levels of vulnerability to weather variability and extreme weather events. This research proposes a methodological framework to characterize the cascading climate-to-economy risk profiles of economic systems to weather variability in different global warming scenarios. A weather-index and machine learning-based approach is introduced to encode and characterize the studied systems vulnerability to weather variability. The latter is enclosed in a "weather-within-climate" stochastic downscaling approach in order to characterize the interaction of low and high frequency climate variability and project risk profiles into future climate scenarios. The probabilistic weather-driven physical loss risk profiles are finally used to model supply shock-driven economic direct and indirect economic losses in the studied region or country. Given the acute vulnerability of the rural population to weather variability and global warming, this probabilistic risk assessment-based methodology is applied to the study the risk profile of weather-driven loss in the rural sector in a developing country, China. Province-level weather-to-economy risk profiles results of weather-driven staple crops loss under different technological and climate scenarios are presented. Implications for the design of risk management policy mixes are finally discussed.
Chavez, E.; Ghil, M.
Regional scenario building as a tool to support vulnerability assessment of food & water security and livelihood conditions under varying natural resources managements
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Participatory regional scenario building was carried out with stakeholders and local researchers in four meso-scale case studies (CS) in Africa. In all CS the improvement of food and / or water security and livelihood conditions was identified as the focal issue. A major concern was to analyze the impacts of different plausible future developments on these issues. The process of scenario development is of special importance as it helps to identify main drivers, critical uncertainties and patterns of change. Opportunities and constraints of actors and actions become clearer and reveal adaptation capacities. Effective strategies must be furthermore reasonable and accepted by local stakeholders to be implemented. Hence, developing scenarios and generating strategies need the integration of local knowledge. The testing of strategies shows how they play out in different scenarios and how robust they are. Reasons and patterns of social and natural vulnerability can so be shown. The scenario building exercise applied in this study is inspired by the approach from Peter Schwartz. It aims at determining critical uncertainties and to identify the most important driving forces for a specific focal issue which are likely to shape future developments of a region. The most important and uncertain drivers were analyzed and systematized with ranking exercises during meetings with local researchers and stakeholders. Cause-effect relationships were drawn in the form of concept maps either during the meetings or by researchers based on available information. Past observations and the scenario building outcomes were used to conduct a trend analysis. Cross-comparisons were made to find similarities and differences between CS in terms of main driving forces, patterns of change, opportunities and constraints. Driving forces and trends which aroused consistently over scenarios and CS were identified. First results indicate that livelihood conditions of people rely often directly on the state and availability of natural resources. Major concerns in all CS are the fast growing populations and natural resources degradation because of unsustainable natural resource management. Land use and resource competition are a consequence of unclear land tenure systems and limited resources availability. Scarce rainfall with high annual variability causes food insecurity if yield failures cannot be compensated, e.g. because of lacking financial resources. In all case studies critical uncertainties were identified to be more or less related to "poor governance". Missing governmental and political stability and effectiveness as well as corruption hamper the implementation of laws and policies related to natural resource management. Other critical uncertainties lie in the social domain. They are either related to demographic patterns like emigration or immigration varying the pressure on natural resources use or to the society in general like the evolvement of people's environmental awareness or voice and accountability. Methodological outcomes of the scenario building were that the complexity of the process requires the use of reliable and powerful tools to support the communication process. Concept maps were found to be a useful tool in this regard.
Reinhardt, Julia; Liersch, Stefan; Dickens, Chris; Kabaseke, Clovis; Mulugeta Lemenih, Kassaye; Sghaier, Mongi; Hattermann, Fred
Climate Change and its Impacts on Water Resources and Management of Tarbela Reservoir under IPCC Climate Change Scenarios in Upper Indus Basin, Pakistan
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Water resources play a vital role in agriculture, energy, industry, households and ecological balance. The main source of water to rivers is the Himalaya-Karakorum-Hindukush (HKH) glaciers and rainfall in Upper Indus Basin (UIB). There is high uncertainty in the availability of water in the rivers due to the variability of the monsoon, Western Disturbances, prolonged droughts and melting of glaciers in the HKH region. Therefore, proper management of water resources is undeniably important. Due to the growing population, urbanization and increased industrialization, the situation is likely to get worse. For the assessment of possible climate change, maximum temperature, minimum temperature and precipitation were investigated and evidence was found in favor of climate change in the region. Due to large differences between historical meteorological data and Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulated data, different statistical techniques were used for bias correction in temperature and precipitation. The hydrological model was calibrated for the period of 1995-2004 and validated for the period of 1990-1994 with almost 90 % efficiencies. After the application of bias correction techniques output of RCM, Providing Regional Climate for Impact Studies (PRECIS) were used as input data to the hydrological model to produce inflow projections at Tarbela reservoir on Indus River. For climate change assessment, the results show that the above mentioned variables have greater increasing trend under A2 scenario compared to B2 scenario. The projections of inflow to Tarbela reservoir show that overall 59.42 % and 34.27 % inflow increasing to Tarbela Reservoir during 2040-2069 under A2 and B2 scenarios will occur, respectively. Highest inflow and comparatively more shortage of water is noted in the 2020s under A2 scenario. Finally, the impacts of changing climate are investigated on the operation of the Tarbela reservoir. The results show that there will be shortage of water in some months over different years. There are no chances of overtopping of the dam during the 2020s and the 2050s under A2 and B2 scenarios. _______________________________________________________________________________KEY WORDS: Climate Model, Climate Change, Hydrological Model, Climate Change Scenarios, Tarbela Reservoir, Inflow, Outflow, Evaporation, Indus River, Calibration, Bias Correction.
Khan, Firdos; Pilz, J�rgen
Bio-economic evaluation of dairy farm management scenarios using integrated simulation and multiple-criteria models
Appropriate selection of holistic management strategies for livestock farming systems requires: (1) understanding of the behaviour of, and interrelations between, the different parts of the system; (2) knowledge of the basic objectives of the decision maker managing such enterprise; and (3) understanding of the system as a whole in its agro-ecoregional context. A decision-support system based on simulation and mathematical
M. Herrero; R. H. Fawcett; J. B. Dent
Risk Management training: the development of simulator-based scenarios from the analysis of recent maritime accidents
This paper opens with a brief introduction to the development of crew resource and risk management training in the international shipping industry. A review of three case studies is used to highlight some of the current risk management issues raised by recent maritime casualties. The paper provides an overview of how these issues have led to research-led developments in simulator-based
Michael L BARNETT
Soil organic carbon sequestration in upland soils of northern China under variable fertilizer management and climate change scenarios
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
determined the historical change in soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks from long-term field trials that represent major soil types and climatic conditions of northern China. Soil carbon and general circulation models were validated using these field trial data sets. We then applied these models to predict future change in SOC stocks to 2100 using two net primary production (NPP) scenarios (i.e., current NPP or 1% year-1 NPP increase). The conversion rate of plant residues to SOC was higher in single-cropping sites than in double-cropping sites. The prediction of future SOC sequestration potential indicated that these soils will be a net source of carbon dioxide (CO2) under no fertilizer inputs. Even when inorganic nutrients were applied, the additional carbon input from increased plant residues could not meet the depletion of SOC in parts of northern China. Manure or straw application could however improve the SOC sequestration potential at all sites. The SOC sequestration potential in northern China was estimated to be -4.3 to 18.2 t C ha-1 by 2100. The effect of projected climate change on the annual rate of SOC change did not differ significantly between climate scenarios. The average annual rate of SOC change under current and increased NPP scenarios (at 850 ppm CO2) was approximately 0.136 t C ha-1 yr-1 in northern China. These findings highlight the need to maintain, and where possible increase, organic carbon inputs into these farming systems which are rapidly becoming inorganic fertilizer intensive.
Jiang, Guiying; Xu, Minggang; He, Xinhua; Zhang, Wenju; Huang, Shaomin; Yang, Xueyun; Liu, Hua; Peng, Chang; Shirato, Yasuhito; Iizumi, Toshichika; Wang, Jinzhou; Murphy, Daniel V.
Impact of climate and land use change on water availability and reservoir management: Scenarios in the Upper Arag�n River, Spanish Pyrenees.
Streamflows in a Mediterranean mountain basin in the central Spanish Pyrenees were projected under various climate and land use change scenarios. Streamflow series projected for 2021-2050 were used to simulate the management of the Yesa reservoir, which is critical to the downstream supply of irrigation and domestic water. Streamflows were simulated using the Regional Hydro-Ecologic Simulation System (RHESSys). The results show that increased forest cover in the basin could decrease annual streamflow by 16%, mainly in early spring, summer and autumn. Regional climate models (RCMs) project a trend of warming and drying in the basin for the period 2021-2050, which will cause a 13.8% decrease in annual streamflow, mainly in late spring and summer. The combined effects of forest regeneration and climate change are expected to reduce annual streamflows by 29.6%, with marked decreases affecting all months with the exception of January and February, when the decline will be moderate. Under these streamflow reduction scenarios it is expected that it will be difficult for the Yesa reservoir to meet the current water demand, based on its current storage capacity (476hm(3)). If the current project to enlarge the reservoir to a capacity of 1059hm(3) is completed, the potential to apply multi-annual streamflow management, which will increase the feasibility of maintaining the current water supply. However, under future climate and land cover scenarios, reservoir storage will rarely exceed half of the expected capacity, and the river flows downstream of the reservoir is projected to be dramatically reduced. PMID:24090497
L�pez-Moreno, J I; Zabalza, J; Vicente-Serrano, S M; Revuelto, J; Gilaberte, M; Azorin-Molina, C; Mor�n-Tejeda, E; Garc�a-Ruiz, J M; Tague, C
Forest carbon response to management scenarios intended to mitigate GHG emissions and reduce fire impacts in the US West Coast region
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
US West coast forests are among the most carbon dense biomes in the world and the potential for biomass accumulation in mesic coastal forests is the highest recorded (Waring and Franklin 1979, Hudiburg et al. 2009). Greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation strategies have recently expanded to include forest woody biomass as bioenergy, with the expectation that this will also reduce forest mortality. We examined forest carbon response and life cycle assessment (LCA) of net carbon emissions following varying combinations of bioenergy management scenarios in Pacific Northwest forests for the period from 2010-2100. We use the NCAR CLM4 model combined with a regional atmospheric forcing dataset and account for future environmental change using the IPCC RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Bioenergy management strategies include a repeated thinning harvest, a repeated clearcut harvest, and a single salvage harvest in areas with projected insect-related mortality. None of the bioenergy management scenarios reduce net emissions to the atmosphere compared to continued business-as-usual harvest (BAU) by the end of the 21st century. Forest regrowth and reduced fire emissions are not large enough to balance the wood removals from harvest. Moreover, the substitution of wood for fossil fuel energy and products is not large enough to offset the wood losses through decomposition and combustion. However, in some ecoregions (Blue Mountains and East Cascades), emissions from the thinning harvests begin to improve over BAU at the end of the century and could lead to net reductions in those ecoregions over a longer time period (> 100 years). For salvage logging, there is no change compared to BAU emissions by the end of the 21st century because the treatment area is minimal compared to the other treatments and only performed once. These results suggest that managing forests for carbon sequestration will need to include a variety of approaches accounting for forest baseline conditions and in some ecoregions, harvest reductions below current levels will sequester more carbon than additional harvest removals for bioenergy. References: Hudiburg, T., B. E. Law, D. P. Turner, J. Campbell, D. Donato, and M. Duane. 2009. Carbon dynamics of Oregon and Northern California forests and potential land-based carbon storage. Ecological Applications 19:163-180. Waring, R. H., and J. F. Franklin. 1979. Evergreen Coniferous Forests of the Pacific Northwest. Science 204:1380-1386.
Hudiburg, T. W.; Law, B. E.; Thornton, P. E.; Luyssaert, S.
Use of a conceptual model of societal drivers of ecological change in South Florida: Implications of an ecosystem management scenario
Human-dominated ecosystems such as in South Florida's Everglades region are greatly affected by societal actions and choices, and efforts to restore degraded ecosystems must take into account the societal drivers of ecosystem change. A conceptual model of societal-ecological interactions within the region illustrates connections between major societal drivers, such as water management and land use, and ecological stressors, such as
Christine C. Harwell; Christopher W. Deren; George H. Snyder; William D. Solecki; James Wilson; Mark A. Harwell
Existence of Undiscovered Uranian Satellites.
National Technical Information Service (NTIS)
Structure in the Uranian ring system as observed in recent occultations may contain indirect evidence for the existence of undiscovered satellites. Using the Alfven and Arrhenius (1975, 1976) scenario for the formation of planetary systems, the orbital ra...
D. C. Boice
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
The employment of empirical observations of the sun and the coronal structure to form scenarios describing the characteristics of other stars is presented as a means to test theory against data. Convective surface forces are thought to be dominant in suns which are smaller than two solar masses, and the sun is noted to display a higher level of surface noise than most stars, with noise levels falling off in stars with larger or smaller masses. Ca II emission from the surface has become a standard for examining stellar coronal activity, and further aids in defining the age of a star in terms of evidence of rotation rates, with slower rotation attributed to older stars. The IUE spacecraft has provided stellar coronal data and the Einstein Observatory has allowed X-ray coverage of stars, with the finding that mass is not the sole indicator of coronal activity. There are stars the mass of the sun with more powerful X-ray emissions.
Rosner, R.
Trophic structure of the Peruvian marine ecosystem in 2000-2006: Insights on the effects of management scenarios for the hake fishery using the IBM trophic model Osmose
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
The individual-based trophic model Osmose is applied to the upwelling marine ecosystem off the coast of Peru. The dynamics and life cycle of eight major species of the Peruvian marine ecosystem are explicitly considered in the model. Reference simulations provide an overview of the trophic structure of the Peruvian ecosystem during the period 2000-2006. Results of model calibration and simulations are discussed in the light of current empirical knowledge on the trophic functioning of the Peruvian ecosystem and are compared to outputs obtained recently using the trophic model Ecopath. The impacts on the ecosystem of restoration plans for the depleted hake ( Merluccius gayi peruanus) population are explored through two management scenarios: a) a long term reduction of fishing effort targeting hake and b) a moratorium on the hake fishery. The simulations help better understand the recent failure of a 20 month hake moratorium and provide long-term strategic support to ecosystem-based management. Limits of our approach are discussed and recommendations are detailed for future developments of the Osmose model and ecosystem approach to fishery management in the Peruvian context.
Marzloff, Martin; Shin, Yunne-Jai; Tam, Jorge; Travers, Morgane; Bertrand, Arnaud
Assessing and classifying plant-related ecological risk under water management scenarios in China's Yellow River Delta Wetlands.
The Yellow River Delta is one of the most vigorous delta areas in the world. The wetlands in this delta are ecologically important due to their hydrologic attributes and their role as ecotones between terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. In recent years, the Yellow River Delta Wetlands have gradually shrunk and degraded due to inadequate environmental flows. Water managers have attempted to balance the needs of the environment with the need to protect water supplies for agriculture and urban needs. Despite the need for environmental protection, a broad-scale, integrated way to characterize the degree of ecological stress in the wetlands has been lacking to date. To provide a framework for evaluating various potential water regimes, we developed a model that can be used to estimate the ecological risk for wetland plants, and used the model to determine the degree of ecological risk for different soil moisture conditions based on an ecological value at risk model that we developed and the fuzzy clustering method. The results revealed the spatial distribution of areas with high, medium, or low risks associated with water stress in the study area. These results can serve as a preliminary template to guide managers in their evaluation of water stress-related risk. PMID:24095790
Yang, Zhifeng; Qin, Yan; Yang, Wei
Scenarios in System Development: Current Practice
Scenario based approaches are becoming ubiquitous in systems analysis and design but remain vague in definition and scope. A survey of current practices indicates we must offer better means for structuring, managing, and developing their use in diverse contexts. The European Esprit project Crews (Cooperative Requirements Engineering with Scenarios) are seeking a deeper understanding of scenario diversity, necessary to improve
Klaus Weidenhaupt; Klaus Pohl; Matthias Jarke; Peter Haumer
Hazardous waste storage facility accident scenarios for the U.S. Department of Energy Environmental Restoration and Waste Management Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement
This paper presents the methods for developing accident categories and accident frequencies for internally initiated accidents at hazardous waste storage facilities (HWSFs) at US Department of Energy (DOE) sites. This categorization is a necessary first step in evaluating the risk of accidents to workers and the general population at each of the sites. This risk evaluation is part of the process of comparing alternative management strategies in DOE`s Environmental Restoration and Waste Management (EM) Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS). Such strategies involve regionalization, decentralization, and centralization of waste treatment, storage, and disposal activities. Potential accidents at the HWSFs at the DOE sites are divided into categories of spill alone, spill plus fire, and other event combinations including spill plus fire plus explosion, fire only, spill and explosion, and fire and explosion. One or more accidents are chosen to represent the types of accidents for FY 1992 for 12 DOE sites were studied to determine the most representative set of possible accidents at all DOE sites. Each accident scenario is given a probability of occurrence that is adjusted, depending on the throughput and waste composition that passes through the HWSF at the particular site. The justification for the probabilities chosen is presented.
Policastro, A.; Roglans-Ribas, J.; Marmer, D.; Lazaro, M.; Mueller, C. [Argonne National Lab., IL (United States); Freeman, W. [Univ. of Illinois, Chicago, IL (United States). Dept. of Chemistry
An evaluation of the impact of forest biomass harvest for biofuels on carbon storage in the US west coast states under different management scenarios
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mitigation strategies to reduce fossil fuel emissions of carbon dioxide have lead to investigation of alternative sources of fuels. National and state forest policies have been implemented to both reduce risk of wildfire and promote use of forest biomass as a secondary biofuels energy source. However, the cost and biomass availability have been estimated without quantifying the impact on current and future terrestrial carbon balances. This study uses a combination of Federal Inventory Analysis data (FIA) and supplementary plot data for Washington, Oregon and California to quantify the current forest carbon stocks, net ecosystem production (NEP), and net biome production (NBP = NEP - removals) for the period from 2001-2006. Varying management treatments were applied to determine the net cost, carbon debt, and biofuels energy potential. The treatments were designed to meet multiple objectives emphasizing carbon storage, economic gain, or energy production. The hazardous fuels reduction treatment minimizes carbon loss by only harvesting biomass in forested areas classified by moderate to high risk fire condition classes (FRCC class). This scenario assumes no additional harvest in ecoregions characterized by long fire return intervals (>100 years) such as the Coast Range and the West Cascades and limits removals to an 18 in diameter at breast height (DBH). The energy production treatment maximizes biomass removal by harvesting areas regardless of FRCC class and allows removals up to a 24 inch DBH. Statewide estimates of carbon for 2001-2006 prior to harvest scenarios for California, Oregon, and Washington respectively are as follows: 1) Total land-based carbon stocks (excluding soils) averages 1680, 1663, and 1278 Tg C; 2) NEP is positive in most ecoregions averaging 213, 180, and 191 g C m-2 yr-1; 3) Actual harvest removals averaged 2.7, 6.5, and 5.1 Tg C yr-1 for the same period. In Oregon, the amount of biomass available for biofuels varies from 128 g C m-2 in the hazardous fuels reduction treatment versus 185 g C m-2 in the energy production treatment. Removal of this biomass over the next 20 years is estimated to result in an additional 4 Tg C yr-1 (a 60% increase) in harvest removals for the hazardous fuels reduction treatment and an additional 14 Tg C yr-1 (216% increase) for the energy production treatment. Even in a minimal removals scenario and assuming no other disturbance losses (i.e. insects and fire), Oregon forest NBP will be significantly reduced with the potential to become a carbon source.
Hudiburg, T. M.; Law, B. E.
Ranking Landscape Development Scenarios Affecting Natterjack Toad (Bufo calamita) Population Dynamics in Central Poland
When data are limited it is difficult for conservation managers to assess alternative management scenarios and make decisions. The natterjack toad (Bufo calamita) is declining at the edges of its distribution range in Europe and little is known about its current distribution and abundance in Poland. Although different landscape management plans for central Poland exist, it is unclear to what extent they impact this species. Based on these plans, we investigated how four alternative landscape development scenarios would affect the total carrying capacity and population dynamics of the natterjack toad. To facilitate decision-making, we first ranked the scenarios according to their total carrying capacity. We used the software RAMAS GIS to determine the size and location of habitat patches in the landscape. The estimated carrying capacities were very similar for each scenario, and clear ranking was not possible. Only the reforestation scenario showed a marked loss in carrying capacity. We therefore simulated metapopulation dynamics with RAMAS taking into account dynamical processes such as reproduction and dispersal and ranked the scenarios according to the resulting species abundance. In this case, we could clearly rank the development scenarios. We identified road mortality of adults as a key process governing the dynamics and separating the different scenarios. The renaturalisation scenario clearly ranked highest due to its decreased road mortality. Taken together our results suggest that road infrastructure development might be much more important for natterjack toad conservation than changes in the amount of habitat in the semi-natural river valley. We gained these insights by considering both the resulting metapopulation structure and dynamics in the form of a PVA. We conclude that the consideration of dynamic processes in amphibian conservation management may be indispensable for ranking management scenarios.
Franz, Kamila W.; Romanowski, Jerzy; Johst, Karin; Grimm, Volker
Ranking landscape development scenarios affecting natterjack toad (Bufo calamita) population dynamics in Central Poland.
When data are limited it is difficult for conservation managers to assess alternative management scenarios and make decisions. The natterjack toad (Bufo calamita) is declining at the edges of its distribution range in Europe and little is known about its current distribution and abundance in Poland. Although different landscape management plans for central Poland exist, it is unclear to what extent they impact this species. Based on these plans, we investigated how four alternative landscape development scenarios would affect the total carrying capacity and population dynamics of the natterjack toad. To facilitate decision-making, we first ranked the scenarios according to their total carrying capacity. We used the software RAMAS GIS to determine the size and location of habitat patches in the landscape. The estimated carrying capacities were very similar for each scenario, and clear ranking was not possible. Only the reforestation scenario showed a marked loss in carrying capacity. We therefore simulated metapopulation dynamics with RAMAS taking into account dynamical processes such as reproduction and dispersal and ranked the scenarios according to the resulting species abundance. In this case, we could clearly rank the development scenarios. We identified road mortality of adults as a key process governing the dynamics and separating the different scenarios. The renaturalisation scenario clearly ranked highest due to its decreased road mortality. Taken together our results suggest that road infrastructure development might be much more important for natterjack toad conservation than changes in the amount of habitat in the semi-natural river valley. We gained these insights by considering both the resulting metapopulation structure and dynamics in the form of a PVA. We conclude that the consideration of dynamic processes in amphibian conservation management may be indispensable for ranking management scenarios. PMID:23734223
Franz, Kamila W; Romanowski, Jerzy; Johst, Karin; Grimm, Volker
A "win-win" scenario: the use of sustainable land management technologies to improve rural livelihoods and combat desertification in semi-arid lands in Kenya
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Dryland ecosystems support over 2 billion people and are major providers of critical ecosystems goods and services globally. However, desertification continues to pose a serious threat to the sustainability of the drylands and livelihoods of communities inhabiting them. The desertification problem is well exemplified in the arid and semi-arid lands (ASALs) in Kenya which cover approximately 80% of the total land area. This study aimed to 1) determine what agropastoralists attribute to be the causes of desertification in a semi-arid land in Kenya, 2) document sustainable land management (SLM) technologies being undertaken to improve livelihoods and combat desertification, and 3) identify the factors that influence the choice of the sustainable land management (SLM) technologies. Results show that agropastoralists inhabiting the semi-arid lands in southeastern Kenya mainly attribute desertification to the recurrent droughts and low amounts of rainfall. Despite the challenges posed by desertification and climate variability, agropastoralists in the study area are using a combination of SLM technologies notably dryland agroforestry using drought tolerant species (indigenous and exotic), grass reseeding using perennial native and drought tolerant grass species (vegetation reestablishment) and in-situ rainwater harvesting to improve livelihoods and by extension combat desertification. Interestingly, the choice and adoption of these SLM technologies is influenced more by the additional benefits the agropastoralists can derive from them. Therefore, it is rationale to conclude that success in dryland restoration and combating desertification lies in programs and technologies that offer a "win-win" scenario to the communities inhabiting the drylands. Key words: Agroforestry; Agropastoralists; Drylands; Grass Reseeding; Rainwater Harvesting
Mganga, Kevin; Musimba, Nashon; Nyariki, Dickson; Nyangito, Moses; Mwang'ombe, Agnes
Natural Disaster Scenario Generator.
National Technical Information Service (NTIS)
In this study, a computer system previously developed for generating nuclear damage scenarios (Dial-a-Scenario) was extended to produce natural disaster scenarios. The programs are implemented on both time-shared (remote terminal) and batch process modes....
J. Baca P. B. Bjorklund R. K. Laurino
Incorporating Climate Variability, Change, and Model Uncertainty in Scenarios for California Water Planning (Invited)
Climate change projections derived from global climate models are becoming more widely used in basin-scale water planning and management. These model projections consistently indicate accelerated warming throughout the 21st century, but the degree of warming varies considerably between models and emission scenarios. For most regions, even greater uncertainty exists in projections of precipitation with some models indicating directionally inconsistent trends.
A. Munevar
Research on the key technology of reconstructing attack scenario based on state machine
An attack activity to cyberspace will cause the security devices generating huge number of security events, it is unfeasible to analyze these events by the manual way for the security manager. After analyzing the existing algorithms of security events correlation, we propose an attack scenario reconstruction technology based on state machine. The processes of attackers intruding into the cyberspace can
Feng Xuewei; Wang Dongxia; Ma Guoqing; Li Jin
The Johnson Space Center Management Information Systems (JSCMIS). 1: Requirements Definition and Design Specifications for Versions 2.1 and 2.1.1. 2: Documented Test Scenario Environments. 3: Security Design and Specifications
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
The Johnson Space Center Management Information System (JSCMIS) is an interface to computer data bases at NASA Johnson which allows an authorized user to browse and retrieve information from a variety of sources with minimum effort. This issue gives requirements definition and design specifications for versions 2.1 and 2.1.1, along with documented test scenario environments, and security object design and specifications.
Baseline scenario(s) for muon collider proton driver
This paper gives an overview of the various muon collider scenarios and the requirements they put on the Proton Driver. The required proton power is about 4-6MW in all the scenarios, but the bunch repetition rate varies between 12 and 65Hz. Since none of the muon collider scenarios have been simulated end-to-end, it would be advisable to plan for an upgrade path to around 10MW. Although the proton driver energy is flexible, cost arguments seems to favor a relatively low energy. In particular, at Fermilab 8GeV seems most attractive, partly due to the possibility of reusing the three existing fixed energy storage rings for bunch manipulations.
Jansson, Andreas; /Fermilab
Mobility Modeling of Outdoor Scenarios for MANETs
Mobility of users significantly impacts performance of a mobile ad-hoc network. Most existing simulation tools offer only a few random mobility models, which poorly reflect user movements in outdoor scenarios. For example, they do not consider restrictions of a spatial environment. In this paper, we describe a comprehensive and extensible approach to model mobility of users in outdoor scenarios. It
Illya Stepanov; Pedro Jose Marron; Kurt Rothermel
Architectures for Developing Multiuser, Immersive Learning Scenarios
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Multiuser immersive learning scenarios hold strong potential for lifelong learning as they can support the acquisition of higher order skills in an effective, efficient, and attractive way. Existing virtual worlds, game development platforms, and game engines only partly cater for the proliferation of such learning scenarios as they are often�
Nadolski, Rob J.; Hummel, Hans G. K.; Slootmaker, Aad; van der Vegt, Wim
Preparing for Catastrophic Disasters: Application of Earth Science and Engineering Data, and Loss Scenarios for Emergency Management and Disaster Recovery Planning
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Catastrophic disasters, either man or nature caused, pose unique challenges to federal, state and local governments. The complex interactions of lifeline disruption, structural damage, and population displacement are difficult to comprehend or predict. As the preparation for and response to the landfall of Hurricane Katrina in 2005 illustrated, forecasting the occurrence of the event does not adequately define the complexity of the consequences. Preparing for the occurrence of a rapid onset disaster that occurs without warning creates additional challenges to the emergency management community. If the event is catastrophic, it will quickly overwhelm local, regional and state resources. The ability to comprehend the magnitude and complexity of such a disruption will also be overwhelmed. The State of California, in order to gain insights into the complexity and demands of a catastrophic earthquake event (historic events include Central California [1906, 1868], Southern California [1857], and possible future events), has partnered with the United States Geological Survey, Charles Kircher and Associates, PBS&J and FEMA to exercise and test the State's response to a catastrophic recurrence of the 1906 San Francisco earthquake. As Kircher notes in his paper, USGS ground motions, enhanced structure inventories, and FEMA' loss estimation tool, HAZUS, are used to define the impact on the San Francisco Bay Region infrastructure, resources and economy. In November of 2006, this scenario will serve as the structure of a 10-county response exercise that will be played out over 36 continuous hours, replicating lifeline, communications and transportation disruption. The exercise, funded by the California Office of Homeland Security, is the first statewide catastrophic disaster response to be carried out in the State and should serve as both a model for integration of natural hazard information into homeland security planning and for developing training that addresses the complex vulnerability of our urban regions. This paper will describe the process of integrating Kircher's work into capability/capacity building and the testing of catastrophic disaster response in California; as well as the lessons, limitations and assessments of the exercise process.
Eisner, R.
Do existing research summaries on health systems match immunisation managers' needs in middle- and low-income countries? Analysis of GAVI health systems strengthening support
Background The GAVI Alliance was created in 2000 to increase access to vaccines. More recently, GAVI has supported evidence-based health systems strengthening to overcome barriers to vaccination. Our objectives were: to explore countries' priorities for health systems strengthening; to describe published research summaries for each priority area in relation to their number, quality and relevance; and to describe the use of national data from surveys in identifying barriers to immunisation. Methods From 44 health systems strengthening proposals submitted to GAVI in 2007 and 2008, we analysed the topics identified, the coverage of these topics by existing systematic reviews and the use of nation-wide surveys with vaccination data to justify the needs identified in the proposals. Results Thirty topics were identified and grouped into three thematic areas: health workforce (10 topics); organisation and management (14); and supply, distribution and maintenance (6). We found 51 potentially relevant systematic reviews, although for the topic that appeared most frequently in the proposals ('Health information systems') no review was identified. Thematic and geographic relevance were generally categorised as "high" in 33 (65%) and 25 (49%) reviews, respectively, but few reviews were categorised as "highly relevant for policy" (7 reviews, 14%). With regard to methodological quality, 14 reviews (27%) were categorised as "high". The number of topics that were addressed by at least one high quality systematic review was: seven of the 10 topics in the 'health workforce' thematic area; six of the 14 topics in the area of 'organisation and management'; and none of the topics in the thematic area of 'supply, distribution and maintenance'. Only twelve of the 39 countries with available national surveys referred to them in their proposals. Conclusion Relevant, high quality research summaries were found for few of the topics identified by managers. Few proposals used national surveys evidence to identify barriers to vaccination. Researchers generating or adapting evidence about health systems need to be more responsive to managers' needs. Use of available evidence from local or national surveys should be strongly encouraged.
Medical Scenarios Relevant to Spaceflight
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
The Medical Operational Support Team (MOST) was tasked by the JSC Space Medicine and Life Sciences Directorate (SLSD) to incorporate medical simulation into 1) medical training for astronaut-crew medical officers (CMO) and medical flight control teams and 2) evaluations of procedures and resources required for medical care aboard the International Space Station (ISS). Development of evidence-based medical scenarios that mimic the physiology observed during spaceflight will be needed for the MOST to complete these two tasks. The MOST used a human patient simulator, the ISS-like resources in the Medical Simulation Laboratory (MSL), and evidence from space operations, military operations and medical literature to develop space relevant medical scenarios. These scenarios include conditions concerning airway management, Advanced Cardiac Life Support (ACLS) and mitigating anaphylactic symptoms. The MOST has used these space relevant medical scenarios to develop a preliminary space medical training regimen for NASA flight surgeons, Biomedical Flight Controllers (Biomedical Engineers; BME) and CMO-analogs. This regimen is conducted by the MOST in the MSL. The MOST has the capability to develop evidence-based space-relevant medical scenarios that can help SLSD I) demonstrate the proficiency of medical flight control teams to mitigate space-relevant medical events and 2) validate nextgeneration medical equipment and procedures for space medicine applications.
Bacal, Kira; Hurs, Victor; Doerr, Harold
A Survey to Determine if Significant Differences Exist in the Scoring of Select Management Areas for Fast Food and Full Service Restaurant Managers by Two-Year Foodservice Management Students.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
A survey was conducted of students in 77 of the 144 two-year foodservice management programs in the United States to assess their knowledge of and attitudes toward fast food restaurant management as compared to full service restaurant management. A total of 1,403 students from 44 programs responded. Results indicated that the food service�
Bloom, Thomas A.
Optimal Generator Scheduling using Probabilistic Demand Scenarios
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
We have developed a new method to determine an optimal generator scheduling using probabilistic demand scenarios. The demand scenarios are created statistically as a set of load curves by the past demand data. Covariance matrix is used to reconstruct the distribution of the demand scenarios. Unit commitment calculation is executed for each demand scenario and the operation cost is estimated. Optimal generator scheduling is selected by the expected value of the unit price with including the additional cost to compensate the demand variation. The risk of the scenarios is also estimated to select the optimal generation scenario. The advantage of this method is that the optimum generator scheduling can be calculated in the present load dispatching system since the existing scheduling algorism can be easily adopted with a minimum modification.
Murakami, Yoshiki; Kobayashi, Takenori; Omata, Kazuya; Takahashi, Hirofumi; Kusano, Hideo
Emergency Management Response to a Warning-Level Alaska-Source Tsunami Impacting Calfornia. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario. California Geological Survey Special Report 229.
National Technical Information Service (NTIS)
This chapter is directed towards two audiences: Firstly, it targets nonemergency management readers, providing them with insight on the process and challenges facing emergency managers in responding to tsunami Warning, particularly given this short fuse s...
L. Jones S. Ross
Predictive habitat modelling as a tool to assess the change in distribution and extent of an OSPAR priority habitat under an increased ocean temperature scenario: consequences for marine protected area networks and management.
The aims of this study were to determine the extent and distribution of an OSPAR priority habitat under current baseline ocean temperatures; to illustrate the prospect for habitat loss under a changing ocean temperature scenario; and to demonstrate the potential application of predictive habitat mapping in "future-proofing" conservation and biodiversity management. Maxent modelling and GIS environmental envelope analysis of the biogenic bed forming species, Modiolus modiolus was carried out. The Maxent model was tested and validated using 75%/25% training/test occurrence records and validated against two sampling biases (the whole study area and a 20km buffer). The model was compared to the envelope analysis and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (Area Under the curve; AUC) was evaluated. The performance of the Maxent model was rated as 'good' to 'excellent' on all replicated runs and low variation in the runs was recorded from the AUC values. The extent of "most suitable", "less suitable" and "unsuitable" habitat was calculated for the baseline year (2009) and the projected increased ocean temperature scenarios (2030, 2050, 2080 and 2100). A loss of 100% of "most suitable" habitat was reported by 2080. Maintaining a suitable level of protection of marine habitats/species of conservation importance may require management of the decline and migration rather than maintenance of present extent. Methods applied in this study provide the initial application of a plausible "conservation management tool". PMID:23894298
Gormley, Kate S G; Porter, Joanne S; Bell, Michael C; Hull, Angela D; Sanderson, William G
Existence of undiscovered Uranian satellites
Structure in the Uranian ring system as observed in recent occultations may contain indirect evidence for the existence of undiscovered satellites. Using the Alfven and Arrhenius (1975, 1976) scenario for the formation of planetary systems, the orbital radii of up to nine hypothetical satellites interior to Miranda are computed. These calculations should provide interesting comparisons when the results from the Voyager 2 encounter with Uranus are made public. 15 refs., 1 fig., 1 tab.
Boice, D.C.
Striving for Balance: The Co-Existence of Multi-, Inter- and Transdisciplinary Curricula in Information Management Education To Address Information Imbalances on Tertiary Level.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Within the South African tertiary education context, information management is taught from a variety of perspectives, including computer science, business management, informatics, and library and information science. Each discipline has a particular multidisciplinary focus dealing with its fundamentals. To investigate information management�
Fairer-Wessels, Felicite A.
Design, revision, and application of ground-water flow models for simulation of selected water-management scenarios in the coastal area of Georgia and adjacent parts of South Carolina and Florida
Ground-water flow models of the Floridan aquifer system in the coastal area of Georgia and adjacent parts of South Carolina and Florida, were revised and updated to ensure consistency among the various models used, and to facilitate evaluation of the effects of pumping on the ground-water level near areas of saltwater contamination. The revised models, developed as part of regional and areal assessments of ground-water resources in coastal Georgia, are--the Regional Aquifer-System Analysis (RASA) model, the Glynn County area (Glynn) model, and the Savannah area (Savannah) model. Changes were made to hydraulic-property arrays of the RASA and Glynn models to ensure consistency among all of the models; results of theses changes are evidenced in revised water budgets and calibration statistics. Following revision, the three models were used to simulate 32 scenarios of hypothetical changes in pumpage that ranged from about 82 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) lower to about 438 Mgal/d higher, than the May 1985 pumping rate of 308 Mgal/d. The scenarios were developed by the Georgia Department of Natural Resources, Environmental Protection Division and the Chatham County-Savannah Metropolitan Planning Commission to evaluate water-management alternatives in coastal Georgia. Maps showing simulated ground-water-level decline and diagrams presenting changes in simulated flow rates are presented for each scenario. Scenarios were grouped on the basis of pumping location--entire 24-county area, central subarea, Glynn-Wayne-Camden County subarea, and Savannah-Hilton Head Island subarea. For those scenarios that simulated decreased pumpage, the water level at both Brunswick and Hilton Head Island rose, decreasing the hydraulic gradient and reducing the potential for saltwater contamination. Conversely, in response to scenarios of increased pumpage, the water level at both locations declined, increasing the hydraulic gradient and increasing the potential for saltwater contamination. Pumpage effects on ground-water levels and related saltwater contamination at Brunswick and Hilton Head Island generally diminish with increased distance from these areas. Additional development of the Upper Floridan aquifer may be possible in parts of the coastal area without affecting saltwater contamination at Brunswick or Hilton Head Island, due to the presence of two hydrologic boundaries--the Gulf Trough, separating the northern and central subareas; and the hypothesized Satilla Line, separating the central and southern subareas. These boundaries diminish pumpage effects across them; and may enable greater ground-water withdrawal in areas north of the Gulf Trough and south of the Satilla Line without producing appreciable drawdown at Brunswick or Hilton Head Island.
Clarke, John S.; Krause, Richard E.
National Technical Information Service (NTIS)
Two surface base build-up scenarios are presented in order to help visualize the mission and to serve as a basis for trade studies. In the first scenario, direct manned landings on the Martian surface occur early in the missions and scientific investigati...
J. D. Blacic
National Technical Information Service (NTIS)
Two Mars surface based build-up scenarios are presented in order to help visualize the mission and to serve as a basis for trade studies. In the first scenario, direct manned landings on the Martian surface occur early in the missions and scientific inves...
J. D. Blacic
Rapid Development of Scenario-Based Simulations and Tutoring Systems.
National Technical Information Service (NTIS)
Low earth orbit constellations significantly increase the burden for ground-based systems management. Efficient, accurate management requires that ground station and satellite operators are well-trained. Scenario-based training, in which trainees practice...
J. L. Mohammed B. Sorensen J. C. Ong J. Li
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Two Mars surface based build-up scenarios are presented in order to help visualize the mission and to serve as a basis for trade studies. In the first scenario, direct manned landings on the Martian surface occur early in the missions and scientific investigation is the main driver and rationale. In the second senario, Earth development of an infrastructure to exploit the volatile resources of the Martian moons for economic purposes is emphasized. Scientific exploration of the surface is delayed at first in this scenario relative to the first, but once begun develops rapidly, aided by the presence of a permanently manned orbital station.
Blacic, J. D.
Two surface base build-up scenarios are presented in order to help visualize the mission and to serve as a basis for trade studies. In the first scenario, direct manned landings on the Martian surface occur early in the missions and scientific investigation is the main driver and rationale. In the second scenario, early development of an infrastructure to exploite the volatile resources of the Martian moons for economic purposes is emphasized. Scientific exploration of the surface is delayed at first, but once begun develops rapidly aided by the presence of a permanently manned orbital station.
Blacic, J.D.
Hanford Groundwater Scenario Studies.
National Technical Information Service (NTIS)
This report documents the results of two Hanford groundwater scenario studies. The first study examines the hydrologic impact of increased groundwater recharge resulting from agricultural development in the Cold Creek Valley located west of the Hanford Re...
R. C. Arnett R. E. Gephart R. A. Deju C. R. Cole S. W. Ahlstrom
One way to examine possible future outcomes for environmental protection is through the development and analysis of alternative future scenarios. This type of assessment postulates two or more different paths that social and environmental development might take, using correspond...
Simulation and particle-tracking analysis of ground-water flow near the Savannah River site, Georgia and South Carolina, 2002, and for selected ground-water management scenarios, 2002 and 2020
Ground-water flow under 2002 hydrologic conditions was evaluated in an eight-county area in Georgia and South Carolina near the Savannah River Site (SRS), by updating boundary conditions and pumping rates in an existing U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) ground-water model. The original ground-water model, developed to simulate hydrologic conditions during 1987-92, used the quasi-three-dimensional approach by dividing the Floridan, Dublin, and Midville aquifer systems into seven aquifers. The hydrogeologic system was modeled using six active layers (A2-A7) that were separated by confining units with an overlying source-sink layer to simulate the unconfined Upper Three Runs aquifer (layer A1). Potentiometric- surface maps depicting September 2002 for major aquifers were used to update, evaluate, and modify boundary conditions used by the earlier ground-water flow model. The model was updated using the USGS finite-difference code MODFLOW-2000 for mean-annual conditions during 1987-92 and 2002. The specified heads in the source-sink layer A1 were lowered to reflect observed water-level declines during the 1998-2002 drought. These declines resulted in a decrease of 12.1 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) in simulated recharge or vertical inflow to the uppermost confined aquifer (Gordon, layer A2). Although ground-water pumpage in the study area has increased by 32 Mgal/d since 1995, most of this increase (17.5 Mgal/d) was from the unconfined Upper Three Runs aquifer (source-sink layer A1) with the remaining 14.5 Mgal/d assigned to the active layers within the model (A2-A7). The simulated water budget for 2002 shows a decrease from the 1987-92 model from 1,040 Mgal/d to 1,035 Mgal/d. The decreased ground-water inflows and increased ground-water withdrawal rates reduced the simulated ground-water outflow to river cells in the active layers of the model by 43 Mgal/d. The calibration statistics for all layers of the 2002 simulation resulted in a decrease in the root mean square (RMS) of the residuals from 10.6 to 8.0 feet (ft). The residuals indicate 83.3 percent of the values for the 2002 simulation met the calibration error criteria established in the original model, whereas 88.8 percent was within the specified range for the 1987-92 simulation. Simulated ground-water outflow to the Savannah River and its tributaries during water year 2002 was 560 cubic feet per second (ft3/s), or 86 percent of the observed gain in mean-annual streamflow between streamflow gaging stations at the Millhaven, Ga., and Augusta, Ga. At Upper Three Runs Creek, simulated ground-water discharge during 2002 was 110 ft3/s, or 83 percent of the observed streamflow at two streamflow gaging stations near the SRS. These results indicate that the constructed model calibrated to 1987-92 conditions and modified for 2002 dry conditions is still representative of the hydrologic system. The USGS particle-tracking code MODPATH was used to generate advective water-particle pathlines and their associated time-of-travel based on MODFLOW simulations for 1987-92, 2002, and each of four hypothetical ground-water management scenarios. The four hypothetical ground-water management scenarios represent hydrologic conditions for (1) reported pumping for 2002 and boundary conditions for an average year; (2) reported pumping for 2002 with SRS pumping discontinued and boundary conditions for an average year; (3) projected 2020 pumping and boundary conditions for an average year; and (4) projected 2020 pumping and boundary conditions for a dry year. The MODPATH code was used in forward-tracking mode to evaluate flowpaths from areas on the SRS and in backtracking mode to evaluate further areas of previously documented trans-river flow on the Georgia side of the Savannah River. Trans-river flow is a condition in which the local head gradients might allow migration of contaminants from the SRS into the underlying aquifers and beneath the Savannah River into Georgia. More...
Cherry, Gregory S.
Review of experimental studies in social psychology of small groups when an optimal choice exists and application to operating room management decision-making.
Because operating room (OR) management decisions with optimal choices are made with ubiquitous biases, decisions are improved with decision-support systems. We reviewed experimental social-psychology studies to explore what an OR leader can do when working with stakeholders lacking interest in learning the OR management science but expressing opinions about decisions, nonetheless. We considered shared information to include the rules-of-thumb (heuristics) that make intuitive sense and often seem "close enough" (e.g., staffing is planned based on the average workload). We considered unshared information to include the relevant mathematics (e.g., staffing calculations). Multiple studies have shown that group discussions focus more on shared than unshared information. Quality decisions are more likely when all group participants share knowledge (e.g., have taken a course in OR management science). Several biases in OR management are caused by humans' limited abilities to estimate tails of probability distributions in their heads. Groups are more susceptible to analogous biases than are educated individuals. Since optimal solutions are not demonstrable without groups sharing common language, only with education of most group members can a knowledgeable individual influence the group. The appropriate model of decision-making is autocratic, with information obtained from stakeholders. Although such decisions are good quality, the leaders often are disliked and the decisions considered unjust. In conclusion, leaders will find the most success if they do not bring OR management operational decisions to groups, but instead act autocratically while obtaining necessary information in 1:1 conversations. The only known route for the leader making such decisions to be considered likable and for the decisions to be considered fair is through colleagues and subordinates learning the management science. PMID:24108254
Prahl, Andrew; Dexter, Franklin; Braun, Michael T; Van Swol, Lyn
Stochastic Optimization for Nuclear Facility Deployment Scenarios
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Single-use, low-enriched uranium oxide fuel, consumed through several cycles in a light-water reactor (LWR) before being disposed, has become the dominant source of commercial-scale nuclear electric generation in the United States and throughout the world. However, it is not without its drawbacks and is not the only potential nuclear fuel cycle available. Numerous alternative fuel cycles have been proposed at various times which, through the use of different reactor and recycling technologies, offer to counteract many of the perceived shortcomings with regards to waste management, resource utilization, and proliferation resistance. However, due to the varying maturity levels of these technologies, the complicated material flow feedback interactions their use would require, and the large capital investments in the current technology, one should not deploy these advanced designs without first investigating the potential costs and benefits of so doing. As the interactions among these systems can be complicated, and the ways in which they may be deployed are many, the application of automated numerical optimization to the simulation of the fuel cycle could potentially be of great benefit to researchers and interested policy planners. To investigate the potential of these methods, a computational program has been developed that applies a parallel, multi-objective simulated annealing algorithm to a computational optimization problem defined by a library of relevant objective functions applied to the Ver ifiable Fuel Cycle Simulati on Model (VISION, developed at the Idaho National Laboratory). The VISION model, when given a specified fuel cycle deployment scenario, computes the numbers and types of, and construction, operation, and utilization schedules for, the nuclear facilities required to meet a predetermined electric power demand function. Additionally, it calculates the location and composition of the nuclear fuels within the fuel cycle, from initial mining through to eventual disposal. By varying the specifications of the deployment scenario, the simulated annealing algorithm will seek to either minimize the value of a single objective function, or enumerate the trade-off surface between multiple competing objective functions. The available objective functions represent key stakeholder values, minimizing such important factors as high-level waste disposal burden, required uranium ore supply, relative proliferation potential, and economic cost and uncertainty. The optimization program itself is designed to be modular, allowing for continued expansion and exploration as research needs and curiosity indicate. The utility and functionality of this optimization program are demonstrated through its application to one potential fuel cycle scenario of interest. In this scenario, an existing legacy LWR fleet is assumed at the year 2000. The electric power demand grows exponentially at a rate of 1.8% per year through the year 2100. Initially, new demand is met by the construction of 1-GW(e) LWRs. However, beginning in the year 2040, 600-MW(e) sodium-cooled, fast-spectrum reactors operating in a transuranic burning regime with full recycling of spent fuel become available to meet demand. By varying the fraction of new capacity allocated to each reactor type, the optimization program is able to explicitly show the relationships that exist between uranium utilization, long-term heat for geologic disposal, and cost-of-electricity objective functions. The trends associated with these trade-off surfaces tend to confirm many common expectations about the use of nuclear power, namely that while overall it is quite insensitive to variations in the cost of uranium ore, it is quite sensitive to changes in the capital costs of facilities. The optimization algorithm has shown itself to be robust and extensible, with possible extensions to many further fuel cycle optimization problems of interest.
Hays, Ross Daniel
Scenario-based anticipation for aided navigation
Artificial intelligence may be used to recognize and anticipate dynamic situations. Several computational methods based on mathematical tools already exist, but most of the time their implementation is complex and takes long execution time. In this article we propose another learning and anticipation method to assist a user in dynamic situations. We call it 'scenario-based reasoning' algorithm. It is inspired
Baptiste Cable; Jean-Marc Nigro; Sophie Loriette
Hanford groundwater scenario studies
This report documents the results of two Hanford groundwater scenario studies. The first study examines the hydrologic impact of increased groundwater recharge resulting from agricultural development in the Cold Creek Valley located west of the Hanford Reservation. The second study involves recovering liquid radioactive waste which has leaked into the groundwater flow system from a hypothetical buried tank containing high-level
R. C. Arnett; R. E. Gephart; R. A. Deju; C. R. Cole; S. W. Ahlstrom
To improve the efficiency of operation of the tokamak reactor (International Thermonuclear Experi-mental Reactor, ITER) in future, it is highly desirable to perform a comprehensive validation by numerical simulation of newly-proposed scenarios or controllers before operation. This paper describes the results of the first stage in these simulations, performed for ITER [ITER Technical Basis. ITER EDA Documentation Series No. 24
V. Lukash; Y. Gribov; A. Kavin; R. Khayrutdinov; M. Cavinato
The U.S. Geological Survey and several partners operate a program called Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) that produces (among other things) emergency planning scenarios for natural disasters. The scenarios show how science can be used to enhance community resiliency. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario describes potential impacts of a hypothetical, but realistic, tsunami affecting California (as well as the west coast of the United States, Alaska, and Hawaii) for the purpose of informing planning and mitigation decisions by a variety of stakeholders. The scenario begins with an Mw 9.1 earthquake off the Alaska Peninsula. With Pacific basin-wide modeling, we estimate up to 5m waves and 10 m/sec currents would strike California 5 hours later. In marinas and harbors, 13,000 small boats are damaged or sunk (1 in 3) at a cost of $350 million, causing navigation and environmental problems. Damage in the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach amount to $110 million, half of it water damage to vehicles and containerized cargo. Flooding of coastal communities affects 1800 city blocks, resulting in $640 million in damage. The tsunami damages 12 bridge abutments and 16 lane-miles of coastal roadway, costing $85 million to repair. Fire and business interruption losses will substantially add to direct losses. Flooding affects 170,000 residents and workers. A wide range of environmental impacts could occur. An extensive public education and outreach program is underway, as well as an evaluation of the overall effort.
Porter, K.; Jones, Lucile M.; Ross, Stephanie L.; Borrero, J.; Bwarie, J.; Dykstra, D.; Geist, Eric L.; Johnson, L.; Kirby, Stephen H.; Long, K.; Lynett, P.; Miller, K.; Mortensen, Carl E.; Perry, S.; Plumlee, G.; Real, C.; Ritchie, L.; Scawthorn, C.; Thio, H. K.; Wein, Anne; Whitmore, P.; Wilson, R.; Wood, Nathan J.
This Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has made available a consistent set of up-to-date scenarios of changes in climate and related environmental and socio-economic factors for use in climate impacts assessments. This is a link to this data through the Data Distr...
Alternative conceptual models and the robustness of groundwater management scenarios in the multi-aquifer system of the Central Veneto Basin, Italy
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
A three-dimensional (3D) groundwater flow model of the deep multi-aquifer Quaternary deposits of the Po plain sedimentary basin, within a 3,300-km2 area (Veneto, Italy), is developed, tested and applied to aid sustainable large-scale water-resources management. Integrated mathematical modelling proves significantly successful, owing to an unusual wealth of available geological, geophysical, and hydrologic data and to state-of-the-art numerical tools. Of particular interest is the evaluation of the influence of alternative conceptual models; that is, of reconstructed representations of the 3D geological model of the structure of the aquifers. The reference conceptual model is set up by means of extended geological sections and stratigraphic records, and is used to create a large, unstructured 3D finite element grid. By analyzing the effects on piezometric surfaces and on the overall water budget of geometrical perturbations from the reference structure, alternative geo-structural models, obtained by systematically shifting the pinch-out of the aquitards, are compared. Interestingly, the impacts of aquitard pinch-out prove far from negligible. The results suggest the critical importance of reliable geological models even for large, complex 3D models. The good practice of iteratively testing numerically the impact of surprises on the conceptual model, as more field information is collected, is thus supported.
Passadore, Giulia; Monego, Martina; Altissimo, Lorenzo; Sottani, Andrea; Putti, Mario; Rinaldo, Andrea
Testing the potential for predictive modeling and mapping and extending its use as a tool for evaluating management scenarios and economic valuation in the Baltic Sea (PREHAB).
We evaluated performance of species distribution models for predictive mapping, and how models can be used to integrate human pressures into ecological and economic assessments. A selection of 77 biological variables (species, groups of species, and measures of biodiversity) across the Baltic Sea were modeled. Differences among methods, areas, predictor, and response variables were evaluated. Several methods successfully predicted abundance and occurrence of vegetation, invertebrates, fish, and functional aspects of biodiversity. Depth and substrate were among the most important predictors. Models incorporating water clarity were used to predict increasing cover of the brown alga bladderwrack Fucus vesiculosus and increasing reproduction area of perch Perca fluviatilis, but decreasing reproduction areas for pikeperch Sander lucioperca following successful implementation of the Baltic Sea Action Plan. Despite variability in estimated non-market benefits among countries, such changes were highly valued by citizens in the three Baltic countries investigated. We conclude that predictive models are powerful and useful tools for science-based management of the Baltic Sea. PMID:24414807
Lindegarth, Mats; Bergstr�m, Ulf; Mattila, Johanna; Olenin, Sergej; Ollikainen, Markku; Downie, Anna-Leena; Sundblad, G�ran; Bu?as, Martynas; Gullstr�m, Martin; Snickars, Martin; von Numers, Mikael; Svensson, J Robin; Kosenius, Anna-Kaisa
Winds of change: How will windstorms and forest harvesting affect C cycling in northern MN under different climate scenarios?
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Forest managers struggle to manage timber resources while integrating the complex interactions that exist among disturbances with the novel conditions produced by a changing climate. To help forest managers better integrate climate change and disturbance projections into their forest management plans, we are using a forest landscape disturbance and succession model (LANDIS-II, Century extension) to project carbon sequestration in northern Minnesota under multiple climate change, management and disturbance scenarios. The model was calibrated and validated using empirical estimates of aboveground productivity and net ecosystem exchange. Our simulations suggest that windstorms will decrease tree biomass and soil organic matter and will increase dead C, resulting in an overall decrease in total C and C sink strength under the GFDL A1FI climate scenario. However the direct effects of climate change on C via altered production and heterotrophic respiration were larger than the impacts of wind. In contrast, forest harvesting will remain the dominant determinant of C dynamics under A1FI, even under management scenarios of more selective logging and longer rotation periods. Recovery from historic (late 1800s and early 1900s) disturbance - clearcut logging and wildfire - remain an important, though declining, driver of long-term C dynamics. Our research results will inform regional planning efforts and help forest managers evaluate the relative importance of disturbances (e.g. wind) and forest harvesting under a changing climate.
Lucash, M. S.; Scheller, R. M.; Gustafson, E.; Sturtevant, B.
Scenarios for coastal vulnerability assessment
Coastal vulnerability assessments tend to focus mainly on climate change and especially on sea-level rise. Assessment of the influence of nonclimatic environmental change or socioeconomic change is less well developed and these drivers are often completely ignored. Given that the most profound coastal changes of the twentieth century due to nonclimate drivers are likely to continue through the twenty-first century, this is a major omission. It may result in not only overstating the importance of climate change but also overlooking significant interactions of climate change and other drivers. To support the development of policies relating to climate change and coastal management, integrated assessments of climatic change in coastal areas are required, including the effects of all the relevant drivers. This chapter explores the development of scenarios (or "plausible futures") of relevant climate and nonclimate drivers that can be used for coastal analysis, with an emphasis on the nonclimate drivers. It shows the importance of analyzing the impacts of climate change and sea-level rise in a broader context of coastal change and all its drivers. This will improve the analysis of impacts, key vulnerabilities, and adaptation needs and, hence, inform climate and coastal policy. Stakeholder engagement is important in the development of scenarios, and the underlying assumptions need to be explicit, transparent, and open to scientific debate concerning their uncertainties/realism and likelihood.
Nicholls, Robert J.; Woodroffe, Colin D.; Burkett, Virginia; Hay, John; Wong, Poh Poh; Nurse, Leonard
USGS Multi-Hazards Winter Storm Scenario
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
The USGS began an inter-disciplinary effort, the Multi Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP), in 2007 to demonstrate how hazards science can improve a community's resiliency to natural disasters including earthquakes, tsunamis, wildfires, landslides, floods and coastal erosion. The project engages the user community in setting research goals and directs efforts towards research products that can be applied to loss reduction and improved resiliency. The first public product of the MHDP was the ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario published in May 2008. It detailed the realistic outcomes of a hypothetical, but plausible, magnitude 7.8 earthquake on the San Andreas Fault in southern California. Over 300 scientist and experts contributed to designing the earthquake and understanding the impacts of such a disaster, including the geotechnical, engineering, social, cultural, environmental, and economic consequences. The scenario advanced scientific understanding and exposed numerous vulnerabilities related to emergency response and lifeline continuity management. The ShakeOut Scenario was the centerpiece of the Nation's largest-ever emergency response exercise in November 2008, dubbed "The Great Southern California ShakeOut" (www.shakeout.org). USGS Multi-Hazards is now preparing for its next major public project, a Winter Storm Scenario. Like the earthquake scenario, experts will be brought together to examine in detail the possibility, cost and consequences of a winter storm disaster including floods, landslides, coastal erosion and inundation; debris flows; biologic consequences like extirpation of endangered species; physical damages like bridge scour, road closures, dam failure, property loss, and water system collapse. Consideration will be given to the vulnerabilities associated with a catastrophic disruption to the water supply to southern California; the resulting impacts on ground water pumping, seawater intrusion, water supply degradation, and land subsidence; and a detailed examination on climatic change forces that could exacerbate the problems. Similar to the ShakeOut Scenario, the Winter Storm Scenario is designing a large but scientifically plausible physical event followed by an expert analysis of the secondary hazards, and the physical, social, and economic consequences. Unlike the earthquake scenario, the winter storm event may occur over days, weeks, and possibly months, and the stakeholder community is broadening to include resource managers as well as local governments and the emergency and lifeline management communities. Developing plans for this Scenario will be presented at this session, and feedback will be welcomed.
Cox, D. A.; Jones, L. M.; Perry, S. C.
Dome It Challenge Scenario Cards
NSDL National Science Digital Library
Student teams find solutions to hypothetical challenge scenarios that require them to sustainably manage both resources and wastes. They begin by creating a card representing themselves and the resources (inputs) they need and wastes (outputs) they produce. Then they incorporate additional cards for food and energy components and associated necessary resources and waste products. They draw connections between outputs that provide inputs for other needs, and explore the problem of using linear solutions in resource-limited environments. Then students incorporate cards based on biorecycling technologies, such as algae photobioreactors and anaerobic digesters in order to make circular connections. Finally, the student teams present their complete biorecycling engineering solutions to their scenarios�in poster format�by connecting outputs to inputs, and showing the cycles of how wastes become resources.
Membrane Biotechnology Laboratory, College of Engineering,
Describing viable technicolor scenarios
We construct an effective Lagrangian for new strong interactions at the LHC, including as a first step the two lightest triplets of spin-1 resonances. Our parametrization is general enough to allow for previously unstudied spectrum and couplings. Among available frameworks to describe the spin-1 sector, we rely on an extra-dimensional description. Our approach limits the number of parameters yet is versatile enough to describe the phenomenology of a wide range of new scenarios of strong electroweak symmetry breaking.
Hirn, Johannes; Martin, Adam; Sanz, Veronica [Department of Physics, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut 06520 (United States); Department of Physics, Boston University, Boston, Massachusetts 02215 and Department of Physics and Astronomy, York University, 4700 Keele Street, Toronto, Ontario M3J 1P3 (Canada)
Probing unification scenarios with atomic clocks .
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
We make use of the comparison between measurements of various pairs of atomic clocks to impose constraints on coupled variations of fundamental constants in severs unification scenarios. We obtain null results for the proton-to-electron mass ratio {dot mu }/{mu }=(0.68�5.79)�10-16 yr-1 and for the gyromagnetic factor {dot g_p}/{g_p}=(-0.72�0.89)�10-16 yr-1 (both of these being at the 95% confidence level). These results are compatible with theoretical expectations on unification scenarios (which we briefly describe), but much freedom exists due to the presence of a degeneracy direction in the relevant parameter space.
Juli�o, M. D.; Ferreira, M. C.; Martins, C. J. A. P.; Monteiro, A. M. R. V. L.
Portfolio design for investment companies through scenario planning
Purpose � Scenario planning has significant applications in the field of strategic management and facilitating decision making under uncertainty, and hence this study aims to integrate scenario planning and the preference ranking organisation method for enrichment evaluations (PROMETHEE) method to propose a new methodology to design a portfolio. Design\\/methodology\\/approach � The methodology has been designed in two stages, the first
Payam Hanafizadeh; Abolfazl Kazazi; Azam Jalili Bolhasani
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
The notion that individuals value the preservation of water resources independent of their own use of these resources is discussed. Issues in defining this value, termed "existence value," are explored. Economic models are employed to assess the role of existence value in benefit-cost analysis. The motives underlying existence value are shown to matter to contingent valuation measurement of existence benefits. A stylized contingent valuation experiment is used to study nonusers' attitudes regarding projects to improve water quality in the Chesapeake Bay. Survey results indicate that altruism is one of the motives underlying existence value and that goods other than environmental and natural resources may provide existence benefits.
Madariaga, Bruce; McConnell, Kenneth E.
Low Grade Micropapillary Urothelial Carcinoma, Does It Exist? - Analysis of Management and Outcomes from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) Database
Objective: To elucidate the oncologic behavior of Micropapillary Urothelial Bladder Carcinoma (MPBC), a rare aggressive variant histology. Methods: All MPBC patients in SEER 17 database were compared with those with traditional urothelial carcinoma (UC). Kaplan-Meier curves were used to determine OS and CSS. A Cox proportional hazards model (CPH) was constructed to test the effect of covariates on outcomes. Results: From 2001-2008, 120 MPBC patients were identified, 0.1% of all bladder cancer. MPBC presented with more high grade (86.1% vs. 38.7%, p<0.0001) and more high stage disease (40.8% NMI vs. 90.4% NMI, p < 0.0001) than UC. Low grade (LG) NMI MPBC had worse OS and CSS compared to LG UC (p=0.0037, p<0.0001 respectively), and did no better than high grade (HG) NMI MPBC. No difference was detected between HG NMI MPBC and HG NMI UC pts. A CPH model controlling for stage, grade, treatment, age, race, and sex detected no significant survival difference in MPBC vs. UC (HR 1.04, p=0.7966). For NMI MPBC (n=49), only 4 patients underwent definitive therapy, of whom none died of disease. However, in those not receiving definitive therapy (n=45), 7 cancer specific deaths occurred (15.6%). Conclusion: Controlling for stage and grade, no survival difference could be detected between MPBC and UC. Low grade NMI MPBC behaved similarly to both high grade MPBC and high grade UC. We propose that all MPBC (regardless of grade) be managed as high grade disease, and that strong consideration for definitive therapy should be given in all cases.
Vourganti, Srinivas; Harbin, Andrew; Singer, Eric A.; Shuch, Brian; Metwalli, Adam R.; Agarwal, Piyush K.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Tele-existence is an advanced type of teleoperation system that enables a human operator at the controls to perform remote manipulation tasks dexterously with the feeling that he or she exists in the remote anthropomorphic robot in the remote environment. The concept of a tele-existence is presented, the principle of the tele-existence display method is explained, some of the prototype systems are described, and its space application is discussed.
Tachi, Susumu; Arai, Hirohiko; Maeda, Taro
Water use implications of biofuel scenarios
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Existing studies rely upon attributional lifecycle analysis (LCA) approaches to estimate water intensity of biofuels in liters of irrigated/evapotranspiration water consumed for biofuel production. Such approaches can be misleading. From a policy perspective, a better approach is to compare differential water impacts among scenarios on a landscape scale. We address the shortcomings of existing studies by using consequential LCA, and incorporate direct and indirect land use (changes) of biofuel scenarios, marginal vs. average biofuel water use estimates, future climate, and geographic heterogeneity. We use the outputs of a partial equilibrium economic model, climate and soil data, and a process-based crop-soil-climate-water model to estimate differences in green water (GW - directly from precipitation to soil) and blue water (BW - supplied by irrigation) use among three scenarios: (1) business-as-usual (BAU), (2) Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) mandates, and (3) a national Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) plus the RFS scenario. We use spatial statistical methods to interpolate key climatic variables using daily climate observations for the contiguous USA. Finally, we use FAO's crop model AquaCrop to estimate the domestic GW and BW impacts of biofuel policies from 2007-2035. We assess the differences among scenarios along the following metrics: (1) crop area expansion at the county level, including prime and marginal lands, (2) crop-specific and overall annual/seasonal water balances including (a) water inflows (irrigation & precipitation), (b) crop-atmosphere interactions: (evaporation & transpiration) and (d) soil-water flows (runoff & soil infiltration), in mm 3 /acre over the relevant time period. The functional unit of analysis is the BW and GW requirements of biofuels (mm3 per Btu biofuel) at the county level. Differential water use impacts among scenarios are a primarily a function of (1) land use conversion, in particular that of formerly uncropped land classes (2) irrigation practices, (3) feedstock water use efficiency, and (4) the longer growing season and a predominance of rainfed cultivation of dedicated biofuel feedstocks. National-level total water use is lowest in the BAU scenario and highest in the RFS2 + LCFS scenario. Figure: Million acres converted to growing miscanthus (top) & switchgrass (bottom) under the RFS + LCFS scenario in 2035. Land use classes are crop pasture (blue), idle cropland (red-purple) & prime cropland (brown).
Teter, J.; Mishra, G. S.; Yeh, S.
The USGS Earthquake Scenario Project
The U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (EHP) is producing a comprehensive suite of earthquake scenarios for planning, mitigation, loss estimation, and scientific investigations. The Earthquake Scenario Project (ESP), though lacking clairvoyance, is a forward-looking project, estimating earthquake hazard and loss outcomes as they may occur one day. For each scenario event, fundamental input includes i) the magnitude and
D. J. Wald; M. D. Petersen; L. A. Wald; A. D. Frankel; V. R. Quitoriano; K. Lin; N. Luco; S. Mathias; D. Bausch
Production planning via scenario modelling
Several Linear Programming (LP) and Mixed Integer Programming (MIP) models for the production and capacity planning problems with uncertainty in demand are proposed. In contrast to traditional mathematical programming approaches, we use scenarios to characterize the uncertainty in demand. Solutions are obtained for each scenario and then these individual scenario solutions are aggregated to yield a nonanticipative or implementable policy.
Laureano F. Escudero; Pasumarti V. Kamesam; Alan J. King; Roger J. B. Wets
Curvature Inspired Cosmological Scenario
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Using modified gravity with non-linear terms of curvature, R 2 and R (2+ r) (with r being a positive real number and R being the scalar curvature), cosmological scenario, beginning at the Planck scale, is obtained. Here a unified picture of cosmology is obtained from f( R)- gravity. In this scenario, universe begins with power-law inflation followed by deceleration and acceleration in the late universe as well as possible collapse of the universe in future. It is different from f( R)- dark energy models with non-linear curvature terms assumed as dark energy. Here, dark energy terms are induced by linear as well as non-linear terms of curvature in Friedmann equation being derived from modified gravity. It is also interesting to see that, in this model, dark radiation and dark matter terms emerge spontaneously from the gravitational sector. It is found that dark energy, obtained here, behaves as quintessence in the early universe and phantom in the late universe. Moreover, analogous to brane-tension in brane-gravity inspired Friedmann equation, a tension term ? arises here being called as cosmic tension, It is found that, in the late universe, Friedmann equation (obtained here) contains a term - ? 2/2 ? ( ? being the phantom energy density) analogous to a similar term in Friedmann equation with loop quantum effects, if ?>0 and brane-gravity correction when ?<0.
Srivastava, S. K.
A future without health? Health dimension in global scenario studies.
This paper reviews the health dimension and sociocultural, economic, and ecological determinants of health in existing global scenario studies. Not even half of the 31 scenarios reviewed gave a good description of future health developments and the different scenario studies did not handle health in a consistent way. Most of the global driving forces of health are addressed adequately in the selected scenarios, however, and it therefore would have been possible to describe the future developments in health as an outcome of these multiple driving forces. To provide examples on how future health can be incorporated in existing scenarios, we linked the sociocultural, economic, and environmental developments described in three sets of scenarios (special report on emission scenarios (SRES), global environmental outlook-3 (GEO3), and world water scenarios (WWS)) to three potential, but imaginary, health futures ("age of emerging infectious diseases", "age of medical technology", and "age of sustained health"). This paper provides useful insights into how to deal with future health in scenarios and shows that a comprehensive picture of future health evolves when all important driving forces and pressures are taken into account.
Martens, Pim; Huynen, Maud
Selecting reasonable future land use scenarios
This paper examines a process to help select the most reasonable future land use scenario for hazardous waste and/or low-level radioactive waste disposal sites. The process involves evaluating future land use scenarios ab applying selected criteria currently used by commercial mortgage companies to determine the feasibility of obtaining a loan for purchasing such land. The basis for the process is that only land use activities for which a loan can be obtained well be considered. To examine the process, a low-level radioactive waste site, the Radioactive Waste Management Complex at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, is used as an example. The authors suggest that the process is a very precise, comprehensive, and systematic approach for determining reasonable future use of land. Implementing such a process will help enhance the planning, decisionmaking, safe management, and cleanup of present and future disposal facilities.
Allred, W.E.; Smith, R.W.
Human & robotics technology space exploration communication scenarios: characteristics, challenges & scenarios for developing intelligent Internet protocols
In this paper, we provide a comprehensive view of current and future space communications systems, and scenarios in relation with intelligent Internet protocol (IIP). IIP is an innovative network layer protocol developed to meet the shortcomings of existing Internet protocol (IP) in an adverse space networking environment and provide future communication support for NASA space exploration activities. IIP distinguishes itself
Behnam Malakooti; Hyun Kim; Kul Bhasin
Adding a Genomic Healthcare Component to a Health Information Management Curriculum
The inclusion of genomic information will become routine in electronic health records (EHRs). Educating health information management (HIM) students about how to best manage, protect, properly release, and use this information for patient care is of utmost importance. This study examined the usefulness of incorporating genomic modules into an existing course in quality management. Pretest and posttest results showed that students improved in all areas related to genomics in healthcare. Also, students enjoyed the class scenarios and discussion on the ethical use of genomic information. Interspersing genomic information management throughout an existing quality management class is an effective way to add this information to an existing HIM curriculum.
Ludwig, Bailee; Zhou, Leming; Watzlaf, Valerie; Abdelhak, Mervat
Adding a genomic healthcare component to a health information management curriculum.
The inclusion of genomic information will become routine in electronic health records (EHRs). Educating health information management (HIM) students about how to best manage, protect, properly release, and use this information for patient care is of utmost importance. This study examined the usefulness of incorporating genomic modules into an existing course in quality management. Pretest and posttest results showed that students improved in all areas related to genomics in healthcare. Also, students enjoyed the class scenarios and discussion on the ethical use of genomic information. Interspersing genomic information management throughout an existing quality management class is an effective way to add this information to an existing HIM curriculum. PMID:21063543
Ludwig, Bailee; Zhou, Leming; Watzlaf, Valerie; Abdelhak, Mervat
Modeling and Composing Scenario-Based Requirements with Aspects
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
There has been significant recent interest, within the Aspect-Oriented Software Development (AOSD) community, in representing crosscutting concerns at various stages of the software lifecycle. However, most of these efforts have concentrated on the design and implementation phases. We focus in this paper on representing aspects during use case modeling. In particular, we focus on scenario-based requirements and show how to compose aspectual and non-aspectual scenarios so that they can be simulated as a whole. Non-aspectual scenarios are modeled as UML sequence diagram. Aspectual scenarios are modeled as Interaction Pattern Specifications (IPS). In order to simulate them, the scenarios are transformed into a set of executable state machines using an existing state machine synthesis algorithm. Previous work composed aspectual and non-aspectual scenarios at the sequence diagram level. In this paper, the composition is done at the state machine level.
Araujo, Joao; Whittle, Jon; Ki, Dae-Kyoo
Scenarios involving future climate and water extraction: ecosystem states in the estuary of Australia's largest river.
Management of natural resources, particularly water, increasingly requires that likely benefits of particular actions (e.g., allocating an environmental flow) are quantified in advance. Therefore, new techniques are required that enable those potential benefits to be objectively compared among competing options for management (e.g., compared to a "do nothing" scenario). Scenario modeling is one method for developing such an objective comparison. We used existing hydrologic, hydrodynamic, and ecosystem response models for a case study location, the Coorong, an inverse estuary in South Australia, to illustrate the potential for such scenario modeling to inform natural resource management. We modeled a set of 12 scenarios that included different levels of water extraction, potential future climate change, and sea-level change, thereby enabling a comparison of the different drivers of possible future reductions in water availability in the Coorong. We discovered that potential future climate change combined with current extraction levels has the capacity to devastate the ecology of the Coorong, but also that much of the degradation could be averted by reducing upstream extractions of water. The inclusion of possible sea-level change had a surprising effect, whereby higher sea levels increased hydrodynamic connectivity between the Coorong's two lagoons. Increased hydrodynamic connectivity limited the occurrence of extremely low water levels and high salinities due to evapoconcentration that were simulated for dry future climates in the absence of sea-level rise. These findings strongly suggest that future ecological degradation in the Coorong is not a foregone conclusion, and that management decisions regarding water allocations upstream will determine the ecological future of this coastal lagoon. PMID:23967570
Lester, Rebecca E; Fairweather, Peter G; Webster, Ian T; Quin, Rebecca A
NSDL National Science Digital Library
This page from The Experiential Learning Center provides a number of scenario-based tasks for use in the classroom or for professional development training. The materials are freely available for download and use and would be applicable to learners in a variety of subjects including software development, faculty professional development, office system applications/ICT, biology/bioinformatics, environmental studies, Python programming, engineering, network security/MIS, computational thinking and English writing. Instructor guides and other classroom instructional materials are provided. The project requests that educators let them know when these materials are used in order to track dissemination of the work and in order to inform the community about upcoming workshops and presentations.
QUASIMODO - QUAlity of ServIce MethODOlogies and solutions within the service framework: Measuring, Managing and Charging QoS Survey of existing methodologies and tools for QoS measurement and management
A survey has been conducted in order to find out if suitable models for the QUASIMODO solution - including proper methodologies and tools for measurement and control of the Quality Classes - already are available. The investigation has examined the most important and popular methodologies and tools for QoS measurements together with the relevant methodologies for QoS management available so
Marco Alfano; Paolo Bostica; Raffaele Rest
44 CFR 16.150 - Program accessibility: Existing facilities.
Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR
44 Emergency Management and Assistance 1 2013-10-01 2013-10-01...Existing facilities. 16.150 Section 16.150 Emergency Management and Assistance FEDERAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY...
Mission Scenario Development Workbench
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
The Mission Scenario Development Workbench (MSDW) is a multidisciplinary performance analysis software tool for planning and optimizing space missions. It provides a number of new capabilities that are particularly useful for planning the surface activities on other planets. MSDW enables rapid planning of a space mission and supports flight system and scientific-instrumentation trades. It also provides an estimate of the ability of flight, ground, and science systems to meet high-level mission goals and provides means of evaluating expected mission performance at an early stage of planning in the project life cycle. In MSDW, activity plans and equipment-list spreadsheets are integrated with validated parameterized simulation models of spacecraft systems. In contrast to traditional approaches involving worst-case estimates with large margins, the approach embodied in MSDW affords more flexibility and more credible results early in the lifecycle through the use of validated, variable- fidelity models of spacecraft systems. MSDW is expected to help maximize the scientific return on investment for space missions by understanding early the performance required to have a successful mission while reducing the risk of costly design changes made at late stages in the project life cycle.
Kordon, Mark; Baker, John; Gilbert, John; Hanks, David; Mandutianu, Dan; Hooper, David
Electronic Mass Casualty Assessment and Planning Scenarios (EMCAPS): development and application of computer modeling to selected National Planning Scenarios for high-consequence events.
Few tools exist that are sufficiently robust to allow manipulation of key input variables to produce casualty estimates resulting from high-consequence events reflecting local or specific regions of concern. This article describes the design and utility of a computerized modeling simulation tool, Electronic Mass Casualty Assessment and Planning Scenarios (EMCAPS), developed to have broad application across emergency management and public health fields as part of a catastrophic events preparedness planning process. As a scalable, flexible tool, EMCAPS is intended to support emergency preparedness planning efforts at multiple levels ranging from local health systems to regional and state public health departments to Metropolitan Medical Response System jurisdictions. Designed around the subset of the National Planning Scenarios with health effects, advanced by the US Department of Homeland Security, the tool's platform is supported by the detailed descriptions and readily retrievable evidence-based assumptions of each scenario. The EMCAPS program allows the user to manipulate key scenario-based input variables that would best reflect the region or locale of interest. Inputs include population density, vulnerabilities, event size, and potency, as applicable. Using these inputs, EMCAPS generates the anticipated population-based health surge influence of the hazard scenario. Casualty estimates are stratified by injury severity/types where appropriate. Outputs are graph and table tabulations of surge estimates. The data can then be used to assess and tailor response capabilities for specific jurisdictions, organizations, and health care systems. EMCAPS may be downloaded without cost from http://www.hopkins-cepar.org/EMCAPS/EMCAPS.html as shareware. PMID:18986730
Scheulen, James J; Thanner, Meridith H; Hsu, Edbert B; Latimer, Christian K; Brown, Jeffrey; Kelen, Gabor D
Scenario based outdoor simulation in pre-hospital trauma care using a simple mannequin model
Introduction We describe a system of scenario-based training using simple mannequins under realistic circumstances for the training of pre-hospital care providers. Methods A simple intubatable mannequin or student volunteers are used together with a training version of the equipment used on a routine basis by the pre-hospital care team (doctor + paramedic). Training is conducted outdoors at the base location all year round. The scenarios are led by scenario facilitators who are predominantly senior physicians. Their role is to brief the training team and guide the scenario, results of patient assessment and the simulated responses to interventions and treatment. Pilots, fire-fighters and medical students are utilised in scenarios to enhance realism by taking up roles as bystanders, additional ambulance staff and police. These scenario participants are briefed and introduced to the scene in a realistic manner. After completion of the scenario, the training team would usually be invited to prepare and deliver a hospital handover as they would in a real mission. A formal structured debrief then takes place. Results This training method technique has been used for the training of all London Helicopter Emergency Medical Service (London HEMS) doctors and paramedics over the last 24 months. Informal participant feedback suggests that this is a very useful teaching method, both for improving motor skills, critical decision-making, scene management and team interaction. Although formal assessment of this technique has not yet taken place we describe how this type of training is conducted in a busy operational pre-hospital trauma service. Discussion The teaching and maintenance of pre-hospital care skills is essential to an effective pre-hospital trauma care system. Simple mannequin based scenario training is feasible on a day-to-day basis and has the advantages of low cost, rapid set up and turn around. The scope of scenarios is limited only by the imagination of the trainers. Significant effort is made to put the participants into "the Zone" - the psychological mindset, where they believe they are in a realistic setting and treating a real patient, so that they gain the most from each teaching session. The method can be used for learning new skills, communication and leadership as well as maintaining existing skills. Conclusion The method described is a low technology, low cost alternative to high technology simulation which may provide a useful adjunct to delivering effective training when properly prepared and delivered. We find this useful for both induction and regular training of pre-hospital trauma care providers.
Capacity of US Forests to Maintain Existing Carbon Sequestration will be affected by Changes in Forest Disturbances and to a greater extent, the Economic and Societal Influences on Forest Management and Land Use
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Increasingly the value of US forest carbon dynamics and carbon sequestration is being recognized in discussions of adaptation and mitigation to climate change. Past exploitation of forestlands in the United States for timber, fuelwood, and conversion to agriculture resulted in large swings in forestland area and terrestrial carbon dynamics. The National Climate Assessment explored the implications of current and future stressors, including climate change, to the future of forest carbon dynamics in the United States. While U.S forests and associated harvested wood products sequestered roughly 13 percent of all carbon dioxide emitted in the United States in 2010, the capacity of forests to maintain this amount of carbon sequestration will be affected by the effects of climate change on forest disturbances, tree growth and mortality, changes in species composition, and to a greater extent, the economic and societal influences on forest management and forestland use. Carbon mitigation through forest management includes three strategies: 1) land management to increase forest area (afforestation) and/or avoid deforestation; 2) carbon management in existing forests; and 3) use of wood in place of materials that require more carbon emissions to produce, in place of fossil fuels to produce energy or in wood products for carbon storage. A significant financial incentive facing many private forest owners is the value of their forest lands for conversion to urban or developed uses. In addition, consequences of large scale die-off and wildfire disturbance events from climate change pose major challenges to forestland area and forest management with potential impacts occurring up to regional scales for timber, flooding and erosion risks, other changes in water budgets, and biogeochemical changes including carbon storage. Options for carbon management on existing forests include practices that increase forest growth such as fertilization, irrigation, switch to fast-growing planting stock and shorter rotations, and weed, disease, and insect control, and increasing the interval between harvests or decreasing harvest intensity. Economic drivers will affect future carbon cycle of forests such as shifts in forest age class structure in response to markets, land-use changes such as urbanization, and forest type changes. Future changes in forestland objectives include the potential for bioenergy based on forestland resources, which is as large as 504 million acres of timberland and 91 million acres of other forest land out of the 751 million acres of U.S. forestland. Implications of forest product use for bioenergy depend on the context of specific locations such as feedstock type and prior management, land conditions, transport and storage logistics, conversion processes used to produce energy, distribution and use. Markets for energy from biomass appear to be ready to grow in response to energy pricing, policy and demand, although recent increases in the supply of natural gas have reduced urgency for new biomass projects. Beyond use in the forest industry and some residences, biopower is not a large-scale enterprise in the United States. Societal choices about forest policy will also affect the carbon cycles on public and private forestland.
Joyce, L. A.; Running, S. W.; Breshears, D. D.; Dale, V.; Malmsheimer, R. W.; Sampson, N.; Sohngen, B.; Woodall, C. W.
An Integration of Scenario-Based Requirements Elicitation and Validation Techniques
Scenarios are widely used in industry to support requirements elicit ation and validation. Tool support is a prerequisite for effective use and management of sc enarios. In this paper we propose to integrate two scenario-based techniques develope d in the ESPRIT Project CREWS. One supports the elicitation of a goal model f rom real-world scenarios. The other allows to validate
Peter Haumer; Patrick Heymans; Klaus Pohl
15 CFR 922.47 - Pre-existing authorizations or rights and certifications of pre-existing authorizations or rights.
Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR
...Pre-existing authorizations or rights and certifications of pre-existing authorizations or rights. 922.47 Section 922...ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE OCEAN AND COASTAL RESOURCE MANAGEMENT...Pre-existing authorizations or rights and certifications of...
The changing nutrition scenario
The past seven decades have seen remarkable shifts in the nutritional scenario in India. Even up to the 1950s severe forms of malnutrition such as kwashiorkar and pellagra were endemic. As nutritionists were finding home-grown and common-sense solutions for these widespread problems, the population was burgeoning and food was scarce. The threat of widespread household food insecurity and chronic undernutrition was very real. Then came the Green Revolution. Shortages of food grains disappeared within less than a decade and India became self-sufficient in food grain production. But more insidious problems arising from this revolution were looming, and cropping patterns giving low priority to coarse grains and pulses, and monocropping led to depletion of soil nutrients and �Green Revolution fatigue�. With improved household food security and better access to health care, clinical manifestations of severe malnutrition virtually disappeared. But the decline in chronic undernutrition and �hidden hunger� from micronutrient deficiencies was slow. On the cusp of the new century, an added factor appeared on the nutritional scene in India. With steady urban migration, upward mobility out of poverty, and an increasingly sedentary lifestyle because of improvements in technology and transport, obesity rates began to increase, resulting in a dual burden. Measured in terms of its performance in meeting its Millennium Development Goals, India has fallen short. Despite its continuing high levels of poverty and illiteracy, India has a huge demographic potential in the form of a young population. This advantage must be leveraged by investing in nutrition education, household access to nutritious diets, sanitary environment and a health-promoting lifestyle. This requires co-operation from all the stakeholders, including governments, non government organizations, scientists and the people at large.
Gopalan, C.
Futures Scenario in Science Learning
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
In this article we describe our experiences in developing futures scenarios in two science contexts, space science and atmospheric science/climate change. Futures scenario writing can develop scientific literacy by connecting science learning to students' lifeworlds--past, present and future. They also provide a synthesising mechanism for�
Lloyd, David; Vanderhout, Annastasia; Lloyd, Lisa; Atkins, David
Student Rights and Responsibilities Scenarios.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
To stimulate interest in student's rights and responsibilities, this resource contains incomplete scenarios dealing with the consequences of knowing and not knowing the law, as it is applied to modern practical situations. The scenarios can be used in high school courses such as government, social problems, history, psychology, and business law.�
Peterson, Ludwig A.; And Others
Does Unconscious Racism Exist?
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
This essay argues for the existence of a form of unconscious racism. Research on implicit prejudice provides good evidence that most persons have deeply held negative associations with minority groups that can lead to subtle discrimination without conscious awareness. The evidence for implicit attitudes is briefly reviewed. Criticisms of the�
Quillian, Lincoln
At first glance, asking whether Cobol exists might seem like a ploy, a setup for describing how the billions of lines of Cobol in the world are responsible for almost every facet of daily life: from paychecks and utility bills to the entire computer based corporate infrastructure. Yet, although thousands of Cobol programmers are alive and well, keeping the wheels
F. P. Coyle
Using atomistic simulations, this work indicates that cement nanotubes can exist. The chemically compatible nanotubes are constructed from the two main minerals in ordinary Portland cement pastes, namely calcium hydroxide and a calcium silicate hydrate called tobermorite. These results show that such nanotubes are stable and have outstanding mechanical properties, unique characteristics that make them ideally suitable for nanoscale reinforcements of cements. PMID:22589176
Manzano, H; Enyashin, A N; Dolado, J S; Ayuela, A; Frenzel, J; Seifert, G
Sarin exposure: a simulation case scenario.
Given the current geopolitical tensions, the risk of a terrorist attack on the United States is constant and increasing. Chemical terrorism, specifically the use of nerve agents, has occurred in other nations. Because of the ease of manufacture, the ability to conceal them, and the lethality of these agents, they pose a potential threat as a weapon of terror. Nerve agent exposure requires prompt recognition, a series of actions to mitigate further exposure to others, and management of the physiological sequelae of exposure. Many civilian healthcare providers are unprepared to manage injuries from nerve exposure. Failure to recognize the signs of nerve agent exposure will increase mortality and morbidity in victims and place healthcare providers at risk. Simulation is an effective methodology to train healthcare personnel in disaster preparedness. This article presents a simulation scenario that reviews the presentation of nerve agent exposure, its management, and a recipe for performing this simulation in a training exercise. PMID:23263315
Eason, Martin P
Developing Multi-Lake Regulation Plans for the Great Lakes through Multi-Scenario Optimization
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Water levels in the Great Lakes- St. Lawrence freshwater system (Lakes Superior, Michigan, Huron, Erie, and Ontario as well as the St. Lawrence River) impact a variety of stakeholder groups such as hydropower producers, the shipping industry, shoreline property owners and recreational boaters. Although the system is currently managed by control structures at two locations (Lake Superior and Lake Ontario outflows are controlled), there is concern that future extreme climates will generate water supply sequences to the system that will substantially increase the frequency and persistence of extreme water levels imposing millions of dollars of losses to Canadian and American economies. This work partially summarizes a study under The International Upper Great Lakes Study (International Joint Commission) to provide an exploratory conceptual analysis of how and to what extent new control structures in the system could be used to minimize the risks posed by extreme water levels outside of the historic range. In this study, two new hypothetical control structures were investigated to regulate Lake Michigan-Huron and Lake Erie outflows. Multiple regulation plans were developed to operate the hypothetical structures in the St. Clair and/or Niagara rivers in combination with the two existing control structures in the St. Marys and St. Lawrence Rivers. The regulation plans were defined by multi-lake rule curves whose parameters were determined through a simulation-optimization procedure. As there is a high level of uncertainty in future climate, multiple water supply sequences, each 70 years long, representing different future climate scenarios were considered. A multi-scenario based optimization formulation was developed aiming to keep the water levels within the historical range and to minimize and evenly distribute extreme water levels across the system. The dynamically dimensioned search (DDS) algorithm was applied to optimize the multi-scenario based formulation. As the Great Lakes simulation model was computationally demanding, the model pre-emption strategy was also utilized in conjunction with DDS to reduce the computational burden. The system with the existing two control structures managed by the current regulation plans was considered as a baseline (base case) of assessment. Simulation results demonstrate that the regulation plans developed can substantially reduce the frequency of extreme water levels and reduce the magnitude of extreme violations in multiple extreme water supply scenarios across the system relative to the base case regulation strategy. The regulation plan was also shown to be robust against other unseen extreme future climate scenarios. Moreover, the system simulation results under various future climate scenarios suggest that even the system controlled by four structures might be unable to fully mitigate the negative impacts associated with extreme water levels.
Razavi, S.; Tolson, B.; Asadzadeh, M.
Comment on ``Density perturbations in the ekpyrotic scenario''
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
In the paper by J. Khoury et al., Phys. Rev. D 66, 046005 (2002), it is argued that the expected spectrum of primordial perturbations should be scale invariant in this scenario. Here we show that, contrary to what is claimed in that paper, the expected spectrum depends on an arbitrary choice of matching variable. As no underlying (microphysical) principle exists at the present time that could lift the arbitrariness, we conclude that the ekpyrotic scenario is not yet a predictive model.
Martin, J�r�me; Peter, Patrick; Pinto-Neto, Nelson; Schwarz, Dominik J.
MIOSAT Mission Scenario and Design
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
MIOSAT ("Mssione Ottica su microSATellite") is a low-cost technological / scientific microsatellite mission for Earth Observation, funded by Italian Space Agency (ASI) and managed by a Group Agreement between Rheinmetall Italia - B.U. Spazio - Contraves as leader and Carlo Gavazzi Space as satellite manufacturer. Several others Italians Companies, SME and Universities are involved in the development team with crucial roles. MIOSAT is a microsatellite weighting around 120 kg and placed in a 525 km altitude sun-synchronuos circular LEO orbit. The microsatellite embarks three innovative optical payloads: Sagnac multi spectral radiometer (IFAC-CNR), Mach Zehender spectrometer (IMM-CNR), high resolution pancromatic camera (Selex Galileo). In addition three technological experiments will be tested in-flight. The first one is an heat pipe based on Marangoni effect with high efficiency. The second is a high accuracy Sun Sensor using COTS components and the last is a GNSS SW receiver that utilizes a Leon2 processor. Finally a new generation of 28% efficiency solar cells will be adopted for the power generation. The platform is highly agile and can tilt along and cross flight direction. The pointing accuracy is in the order of 0,1� for each axe. The pointing determination during images acquisition is <0,02� for the axis normal to the boresight and 0,04� for the boresight. This paper deals with MIOSAT mission scenario and definition, highlighting trade-offs for mission implementation. MIOSAT mission design has been constrained from challenging requirements in terms of satellite mass, mission lifetime, instrument performance, that have implied the utilization of satellite agility capability to improve instruments performance in terms of S/N and resolution. The instruments provide complementary measurements that can be combined in effective ways to exploit new applications in the fields of atmosphere composition analysis, Earth emissions, antropic phenomena, etc. The Mission is currently in phase B and the launch is planned for 2011.
Agostara, C.; Dionisio, C.; Sgroi, G.; di Salvo, A.
A "midinfrared" scenario for cuprate superconductivity
I conjecture that the mechanism of superconductivity in the cuprates is a saving, due to the improved screening resulting from Cooper pair formation, of the part of the Coulomb energy associated with long wavelengths and midinfrared frequencies. This scenario is shown to provide a plausible explanation of the trend of transition temperature with layering structure in the Ca-spaced compounds and to predict a spectacularly large decrease in the electron-energy-loss spectroscopy cross-section in the midinfrared region on transition to the superconducting state, as well as less spectacular but still surprisingly large changes in the optical behavior. Existing experimental results appear to be consistent with this picture.
Leggett, A. J.
Science for decision making: Transmitting hazard science using catastrophic scenarios
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
The ShakeOut and ARkStorm scenarios are scientifically-based, multi-disciplinary efforts to describe the damages and consequences of large, but plausible, natural disasters for use in emergency management and other planning. The ShakeOut earthquake scenario, completed in 2008, posits the occurrence of a major earthquake on the southern San Andreas Fault. It was used by more than 5,000 emergency personnel in a California statewide exercise, and it underpins the Federal Emergency Management Agency�s (FEMA) Catastrophic Plan for Southern California. The ARkStorm winter storm scenario, to be completed in 2010, posits the occurrence of a statewide disaster like the storm that occurred during 1861-1862. The ARkStorm scenario will culminate with two planning summits comprised of federal and state agencies, because such an event would exceed local response and recovery capabilities. This talk will address the following questions that are critical to transmitting science for decision making with examples and observations from the two scenarios: 1) Who are the end users of the scenarios, what types of decisions can scenarios inform, and how are stakeholders engaged? 2) What forms of information and processes work best to communicate and apply the hazard science? 3) What are the challenges of using science in decision making? 4) What future directions shall we pursue? From my perspective as coordinator of economic consequences analyses for the two scenarios, I will share insights to these questions. Framing stakeholder decisions in terms of scale (e.g., household to State) and disaster phase (e.g., emergency response, recovery, and mitigation) allows us to align methods of stakeholder engagement with stakeholder decision making. For these regional-scale scenarios, the methods of engagement included stakeholder participation in project vision, scenario construction workshops, presentations, conferences, and emergency response and recovery exercises. Champions (self-motivated individuals who took on leadership roles in their communities or industrial sectors), customized and localized analyses, and workshops enhanced the use of hazard science. Examples from the two scenarios will be used to illustrate these points. We experienced several significant challenges in using science to enhance emergency management exercises and community decision making. Some of these challenges include 1) adapting scientific results to exercise format; 2) the special needs of recovery exercises, which can mimic response exercises only with limited success, because recovery is tactical while response is strategic; 3) staff turnover; and 4) limited resources. An important future direction will be to leverage our in-depth knowledge of scenarios, multi-disciplinary network, and stakeholder relations to integrate knowledge about multiple hazards to better inform risk-based decision making for all hazards.
Wein, A.
The Self-Organising Seismic Early Warning Information Network: Scenarios
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
SAFER and EDIM working groups, the Department of Computer Science, Humboldt-Universit�t zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany, and Section 2.1 Earthquake Risk and Early Warning, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Germany Contact: Frank K�hnlenz, firstname.lastname@example.com The Self-Organising Seismic Early Warning Information Network (SOSEWIN) represents a new approach for Earthquake Early Warning Systems (EEWS), consisting in taking advantage of novel wireless communications technologies without the need of a planned, centralised infrastructure. It also sets out to overcome problems of insufficient node density, which typically affects present existing early warning systems, by having the SOSEWIN seismological sensing units being comprised of low-cost components (generally bought "off-the-shelf"), with each unit initially costing 100's of Euros, in contrast to 1,000's to 10,000's for standard seismological stations. The reduced sensitivity of the new sensing units arising from the use of lower-cost components will be compensated by the network's density, which in the future is expected to number 100's to 1000's over areas served currently by the order of 10's of standard stations. The robustness, independence of infrastructure, spontaneous extensibility due to a self-healing/self-organizing character in the case of removing/failing or adding sensors makes SOSEWIN potentially useful for various use cases, e.g. monitoring of building structures or seismic microzonation. Nevertheless its main purpose is the earthquake early warning, for which reason the ground motion is continuously monitored by conventional accelerometers (3-component). It uses SEEDLink to store and provide access to the sensor data. SOSEWIN considers also the needs of earthquake task forces, which want to set-up a temporary seismic network rapidly and with light-weighted stations to record after-shocks. The wireless and self-organising character of this sensor network should be of great value to do this job in a shorter time and with less manpower compared to using common seismic stations. We present here the graphical front-end of SOSEWIN in its usage for different scenarios. It belongs to a management infrastructure based on GIS and database technologies and therefore coupling with existing infrastructures should be simplified. Connecting the domain expert's laptop running the management software with a SOSEWIN may be fulfilled via any arbitrary node in the network (on-site access) or via a gateway node from a remote location using the internet. The scenarios focus on the needs of certain domain experts (seismologists or maybe engineers) and include the planning of a network installation, support during the installation process and testing of this installation. Another scenario mentions monitoring aspects of an already installed network and finally a scenario deals with the visualization of the alarming protocol detecting an earthquake event and issuing an early warning.
K�hnlenz, F.; Fischer, J.; Eveslage, I.
Scenarios, targets, gaps, and costs
This paper explores the connection between human activities and the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. t explores the implication of the wide range of emissions scenarios developed by the IPCC in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios and concludes that a robust finding is that major changes will be required in the global energy system if the concentration of carbon dioxide is eventually to be stabilized.
Edmonds, James A.; Joos, Fortunat; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa; Richels, Richard G.; Sarmiento, Jorge L.
Optimization of self-consistent DIII-D AT scenarios with the OMFIT framework
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Integrated modeling is an established technique to obtain improved description of physical processes. OMFIT is a workflow manager designed to facilitate and automate all steps in the modeling/validation/verification process of integrated simulations--specifying the physics to be modeled, retrieving experimental data, running the simulation or analysis, and visualizing the results. In OMFIT modeling tasks are organized into modules, which can be easily combined to create arbitrarily large multi-physics simulations. A unified Graphical User Interface (GUI) oversees all of the aspects in the management of the analyses carried out by users. Most importantly, OMFIT allows integration of existing simulation tools without requiring those tools to comply to any standardized data format. This poster describes OMFIT and presents some applications of the framework, including the self-consistent optimization of DIII-D AT scenarios using a cost-function approach to achieve multiple simultaneous goals.
Meneghini, O.; Smith, S. P.; Lao, L. L.
Adaptive memory: the survival scenario enhances item-specific processing relative to a moving scenario.
Nairne, Thompson, and Pandeirada (2007) found that retention of words rated for their relevance to survival is superior to that of words encoded under numerous other deep processing conditions. They suggested that our memory systems might have evolved to confer an advantage for survival-relevant information. Burns, Burns, and Hwang (2011) suggested a two-process explanation of the proximate mechanisms responsible for the survival advantage. Whereas most control tasks encourage only one type of processing, the survival task encourages both item-specific and relational processing. They found that when control tasks encouraged both types of processing, the survival processing advantage was eliminated. However, none of their control conditions included non-survival scenarios (e.g., moving, vacation, etc.), so it is not clear how this two-process explanation would explain the survival advantage when scenarios are used as control conditions. The present experiments replicated the finding that the survival scenario improves recall relative to a moving scenario in both a between-lists and within-list design and also provided evidence that this difference was accompanied by an item-specific processing difference, not a difference in relational processing. The implications of these results for several existing accounts of the survival processing effect are discussed. PMID:23259675
Burns, Daniel J; Hart, Joshua; Griffith, Samantha E; Burns, Amy D
Developing a Scenario for widespread use: Best practices, lessons learned
The ShakeOut Scenario is probably the most widely known and used earthquake scenario created to date. Much of the credit for its widespread dissemination and application lies with scenario development criteria that focused on the needs and involvement of end users and with a suite of products that tailored communication of the results to varied end users, who ranged from emergency managers to the general public, from corporations to grassroots organizations. Products were most effective when they were highly visual, when they emphasized the findings of social scientists, and when they communicated the experience of living through the earthquake. This paper summarizes the development criteria and the products that made the ShakeOut Scenario so widely known and used, and it provides some suggestions for future improvements. ?? 2011, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.
Perry, S.; Jones, L.; Cox, D.
Scenarios for optimizing potato productivity in a lunar CELSS
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
The use of controlled ecological life support system (CELSS) in the development and growth of large-scale bases on the Moon will reduce the expense of supplying life support materials from Earth. Such systems would use plants to produce food and oxygen, remove carbon dioxide, and recycle water and minerals. In a lunar CELSS, several factors are likely to be limiting to plant productivity, including the availability of growing area, electrical power, and lamp/ballast weight for lighting systems. Several management scenarios are outlined in this discussion for the production of potatoes based on their response to irradiance, photoperiod, and carbon dioxide concentration. Management scenarios that use 12-hr photoperiods, high carbon dioxide concentrations, and movable lamp banks to alternately irradiate halves of the growing area appear to be the most efficient in terms of growing area, electrical power, and lamp weights. However, the optimal scenario will be dependent upon the relative 'costs' of each factor.
Wheeler, R. M.; Morrow, R. C.; Tibbitts, T. W.; Bula, R. J.
Children as vulnerable populations in radiological/nuclear events: discussion scenarios.
A workshop to discuss Canada's preparedness to properly manage and treat children during radiological/nuclear (R/N) events was held in Ottawa, Canada, on 1-2 June 2010. This workshop provided a platform for participants of varied backgrounds including medicine, radiological and nuclear physics as well as child care, to discuss the strength and shortcoming of the currently implemented practices and procedures in Canada for the treatment and management of contaminated and/or exposed children during R/N events. To aid this discussion, scenarios (vignettes) involving the malicious use of radiological material were presented and discussed from the perspective of the emergency response focusing specifically on children. From these discussions, it was concluded that the management of children during R/N events is vastly different from the management of adults, and requires a specific set of protocols and procedures, not yet outlined in Canadian documentation. This paper is not meant to discuss existing response protocols during R/N events, but rather to discuss the deficiencies in planning and suggested improvements/revisions raised through discussion at the workshop on how to better manage children during an R/N event. PMID:20924121
Rodrigues, Matthew; Chaput, Joseph; Bellman, Christopher; Cousins, Tom
Rapid Development of Scenario-Based Simulations and Tutoring Systems
Low earth orbit constellations significantly increase the burden for ground-based systems management. Efficient, accurate management requires that ground station and satellite operators are well-trained. Scenario-based training, in which trainees practice handling specific situations using faithful simulations of the equipment they will use on the job has proven to be an extremely effective method for both training and certification. Effectiveness is
John L. Mohammed; James C. Ong; Jian Li
LM: a miner for scenario-based specifications
We present LM, a tool for mining scenario-based specifications in the form of Live Sequence Charts, a visual language that extends sequence diagrams with modalities. LM comes with a project management component, a wizard-like interface to the mining algorithm, a set of pre- and post-processing extensions, and a visualization module.
Tuan-Anh Doan; David Lo; Shahar Maoz; Siau-Cheng Khoo
Analysis and Application Scenarios of Enterprise Architecture: An Exploratory Study
Enterprise architecture (EA) gained growing importance as a key issue of information management in recent years. This paper is aimed at contributing to EA methodology by a systemization of EA analysis techniques and EA application scenarios. These findings are compared with current EA practice collected by means of an exploratory study.
Tobias Bucher; Ronny Fischer; Stephan Kurpjuweit; Robert Winter
Scenario workshops: A useful method for participatory water resources planning?
This article reports on a scenario workshop (SW) for water resources management at the island of Naxos, Greece. The workshop was part of a European research project studying the advantages and limitations of different participatory methods in the context of the Water Framework Directive. It involved policy makers, scientists, business representatives, and citizens from different parts of the island. On
Dionyssia Hatzilacou; Giorgos Kallis; Alexandra Mexa; Harris Coccosis; Eleni Svoronou
Generation of realistic air traffic scenarios using a genetic algorithm
Traffic flow management decision support tools such as the user request evaluation tool (URET), developed by the MITRE Center for Advanced Aviation Systems Development, and the Center-TRACON automation system (CTAS), developed by the NASA\\/Ames Research Center, use simulation as a tool for development, technical assessment, and field evaluation. Air traffic scenarios, based on recorded live data, are used to test
R. D. Oaks; M. Paglione
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Discusses issues raised by the development of remote reference. Two scenarios are proposed: (1) how Internet users and their information-seeking behavior challenge the traditional reference service model, its value system, and the librarian role in that model, and (2) a model of close linkages between librarians and users engaged as partners along�
Koyama, Janice T.
Clean energy scenarios for Australia
Australia, a major producer and user of coal, has the highest per capita greenhouse gas emissions in the industrialised world. This study investigates whether in theory such a �fossil-fuel dependent� country could achieve a 50% reduction in CO2 emissions from stationary energy by 2040, compared with its 2001 emissions. To do this scenarios are developed, using a combination of forecasting
Hugh Saddler; Mark Diesendorf; Richard Denniss
Space resources. Volume 1: Scenarios
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
A number of possible future paths for space exploration and development are presented. The topics covered include the following: (1) the baseline program; (2) alternative scenarios utilizing nonterrestrial resources; (3) impacts of sociopolitical conditions; (4) common technologies; and issues for further study.
Mckay, Mary Fae (editor); Mckay, David S. (editor); Duke, Michael B. (editor)
Transportation scenarios for risk analysis.
Transportation risk, like any risk, is defined by the risk triplet: what can happen (the scenario), how likely it is (the probability), and the resulting consequences. This paper evaluates the development of transportation scenarios, the associated probabilities, and the consequences. The most likely radioactive materials transportation scenario is routine, incident-free transportation, which has a probability indistinguishable from unity. Accident scenarios in radioactive materials transportation are of three different types: accidents in which there is no impact on the radioactive cargo, accidents in which some gamma shielding may be lost but there is no release of radioactive material, and accident in which radioactive material may potentially be released. Accident frequencies, obtainable from recorded data validated by the U.S. Department of Transportation, are considered equivalent to accident probabilities in this study. Probabilities of different types of accidents are conditional probabilities, conditional on an accident occurring, and are developed from event trees. Development of all of these probabilities and the associated highway and rail accident event trees are discussed in this paper.
Weiner, Ruth F.
Scenario-based water resources planning for utilities in the Lake Victoria region
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Urban areas in the Lake Victoria (LV) region are experiencing the highest growth rates in Africa. As efforts to meet increasing demand accelerate, integrated water resources management (IWRM) tools provide opportunities for utilities and other stakeholders to develop a planning framework comprehensive enough to include short term (e.g. landuse change), as well as longer term (e.g. climate change) scenarios. This paper presents IWRM models built using the Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) decision support system, for three towns in the LV region - Bukoba (Tanzania), Masaka (Uganda), and Kisii (Kenya). Each model was calibrated under current system performance based on site visits, utility reporting and interviews. Projected water supply, demand, revenues and costs were then evaluated against a combination of climate, demographic and infrastructure scenarios up to 2050. Our results show that water supply in all three towns is currently infrastructure limited; achieving existing design capacity could meet most projected demand until 2020s in Masaka beyond which new supply and conservation strategies would be needed. In Bukoba, reducing leakages would provide little performance improvement in the short-term, but doubling capacity would meet all demands until 2050. In Kisii, major infrastructure investment is urgently needed. In Masaka, streamflow simulations show that wetland sources could satisfy all demand until 2050, but at the cost of almost no water downstream of the intake. These models demonstrate the value of IWRM tools for developing water management plans that integrate hydroclimatology-driven supply to demand projections on a single platform.
Mehta, Vishal K.; Aslam, Omar; Dale, Larry; Miller, Norman; Purkey, David R.
Inferring Declarative Requirements Specifications from Operational Scenarios
Scenarios are increasingly recognized as an effective means for eliciting, validating, and documenting software requirements. This paper concentrates on the use of scenarios for requirements elicitation and explores the process of inferring formal specifications of goals and requirements from scenario descriptions. Scenarios are considered here as typical examples of system usage; they are provided in terms of sequences of interaction
Axel Van Lamsweerde; Laurent Willemet
Community Based Rehabilitation for the Disabled Elderly: A Report on existing Indian Scenario
The National Population Commission in India has estimated that the population of the elderly (age 60years and above) is expected to grow from 71 million in 2001 to 173 million by 2026.This appears to be a very precarious condition for the older population in India and reflects the growing prevalence and the unique burden it places on caregivers of the
Alokananda Banerjee
Inappropriate referrals at the end of life-the existing Indian scenario.
The Economist Intelligence Unit has ranked India's end-of-life care last out of 40 countries. The lack of orientation towards palliative care, poor communication skills, a disease-focused, curative approach and the unending battle against death-all lead to unrealistic hope in patients and their families. Inappropriate referrals at the end of life are common and result in a lot of avoidable suffering for both the patients and their families. Propagation of clear guidelines to limit inappropriate therapeutic interventions and referrals in patients with limited prognosis is the need of the hour. Awareness, sensitization, education and training in palliative care are urgently required to change attitudes. This would go a long way in mitigating the misery for both the dying and their carers. PMID:24664357
Butola, Savita
Using advanced technology repositories to accelerate simulation scenario development
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
One of the more difficult problems facing an analyst wishing to use a simulation is the task of collecting data and transforming it into a correctly formatted scenario. Raw data is often available from a variety of sources: multi-spectral force deployment (MSFD) documents, the electronic warfare integrated reprogramming database (EWIRDB), free text documents such as intelligence reports, pre-existing simulation scenarios, and scenarios taken from other simulations. The task of transforming this data into a usable scenario involves searching for the relevant information, followed by a manual transformation of the original format to the correct simulation format. This problem can be greatly alleviated by using a combination of three technologies: automatic parser generation, repository architectures using extensible markup language (XML), and information retrieval (IR) techniques. Automatic parser generation tools like JavaCC can automatically generate source code capable of reading data sources such as old Joint Integrated Mission Model (JIMM) or Suppressor input files. For simulations that regularly add scenario keywords to support changing needs, this can greatly reduce redevelopment time and cost for supporting tools. The objects parsed by this source can then be encapsulated in XML and stored into a repository. Using information retrieval techniques, objects can then be queried from the repository and transformed into the appropriate format for use in a scenario.
Trias, Eric; Mathias, Karl S.
Test of existing mathematical models for atmospheric resuspension of radionuclides
Atmospheric resuspension of radionuclides can be a secondary source of contamination after a release has stopped, as well as a source of contamination for people and areas not exposed to the original release. A test scenario based on measurements collected after the Chernobyl accident was used to evaluate existing mathematical models for contaminant resuspension from soil, to examine resuspension processes
E. K. Garger; F. O. Hoffman; K. M. Thiessen; D. Galeriu; A. I. Kryshev; T. Lev; C. W. Miller; S. K. Nair; N. Talerko; B. Watkins
Assessing the effects of alternative setback channel constraint scenarios employing a river meander migration model.
River channel migration and cutoff events within large river riparian corridors create heterogeneous and biologically diverse landscapes. However, channel stabilization (riprap and levees) impede the formation and maintenance of riparian areas. These impacts can be mitigated by setting channel constraints away from the channel. Using a meander migration model to measure land affected, we examined the relationship between setback distance and riparian and off-channel aquatic habitat formation on a 28-km reach of the Sacramento River, California, USA. We simulated 100 years of channel migration and cutoff events using 11 setback scenarios: 1 with existing riprap and 10 assuming setback constraints from about 0.5 to 4 bankfull channel widths (bankfull width: 235 m) from the channel. The percentage of land reworked by the river in 100 years relative to current (riprap) conditions ranged from 172% for the 100-m constraint setback scenario to 790% for the 800-m scenario. Three basic patterns occur as the setback distance increases due to different migration and cutoff dynamics: complete restriction of cutoffs, partial restriction of cutoffs, and no restriction of cutoffs. Complete cutoff restriction occurred at distances less than about one bankfull channel width (235 m), and no cutoff restriction occurred at distances greater than about three bankfull widths (approximately 700 m). Managing for point bars alone allows the setbacks to be narrower than managing for cutoffs and aquatic habitat. Results suggest that site-specific "restriction of cutoff" thresholds can be identified to optimize habitat benefits versus cost of acquired land along rivers affected by migration processes. PMID:16456633
Larsen, Eric W; Girvetz, Evan H; Fremier, Alexander K
Review of speculative ''disaster scenarios'' at RHIC
This paper discusses speculative disaster scenarios inspired by hypothetical new fundamental processes that might occur in high-energy relativistic heavy-ion collisions. The authors estimate the parameters relevant to black-hole production and find that they are absurdly small. They show that other accelerator and (especially) cosmic-ray environments have already provided far more auspicious opportunities for transition to a new vacuum state, so that existing observations provide stringent bounds. The possibility of producing a dangerous strangelet is discussed in most detail. The authors argue that four separate requirements are necessary for this to occur: existence of large stable strangelets, metastability of intermediate size strangelets, negative charge for strangelets along the stability line, and production of intermediate size strangelets in the heavy ion environment. Both theoretical and experimental reasons why each of these appears unlikely are discussed. In particular, the authors know of no plausible suggestion for why the third or especially the fourth might be true. Given minimal physical assumptions, the continued existence of the Moon, in the form we know it, despite billions of years of cosmic-ray exposure, provides powerful empirical evidence against the possibility of dangerous strangelet production.
Jaffe, R. L.; Busza, W.; Wilczek, F.; Sandweiss, J.
Einstein static universe in braneworld scenario
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
The stability of Einstein static universe against homogeneous scalar perturbations in the context of braneworld scenario is investigated. The stability regions are obtained in terms of the constant geometric linear equation of state parameter ?=p/? and are studied for each evolutionary era of the universe. The results are discussed for the case of closed, open or flat universe in each era under the obtained restricting conditions. We also briefly investigate the stability against vector and tensor perturbations. Contrary to the classical general relativity, it is found that a stable Einstein static universe may exist in a braneworld theory of gravity against scalar, vector and tensor perturbations for some suitable values and ranges of the cosmological parameters.
Atazadeh, K.; Heydarzade, Y.; Darabi, F.
A Native American exposure scenario.
EPA's Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund (RAGS) and later documents provide guidance for estimating exposures received from suburban and agricultural activity patterns and lifestyles. However, these methods are not suitable for typical tribal communities whose members pursue, at least in part, traditional lifestyles. These lifestyles are derived from a long association with all of the resources in a particular region. We interviewed 35 members of a Columbia River Basin tribe to develop a lifestyle-based subsistence exposure scenario that represents a midrange exposure that a traditional tribal member would receive. This scenario provides a way to partially satisfy Executive Order 12,898 on environmental justice, which requires a specific evaluation of impacts from federal actions to peoples with subsistence diets. Because a subsistence diet is only a portion of what is important to a traditional lifestyle, we also used information obtained from the interviews to identify parameters for evaluating impacts to environmental and sociocultural quality of life. PMID:9463932
Harris, S G; Harper, B L
Development of advanced inductive scenarios for ITER
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Since its inception in 2002, the International Tokamak Physics Activity topical group on Integrated Operational Scenarios (IOS) has coordinated experimental and modelling activity on the development of advanced inductive scenarios for applications in the ITER tokamak. The physics basis and the prospects for applications in ITER have been advanced significantly during that time, especially with respect to experimental results. The principal findings of this research activity are as follows. Inductive scenarios capable of higher normalized pressure (?N ? 2.4) than the ITER baseline scenario (?N = 1.8) with normalized confinement at or above the standard H-mode scaling are well established under stationary conditions on the four largest diverted tokamaks (AUG, DIII-D, JET, JT-60U), demonstrated in a database of more than 500 plasmas from these tokamaks analysed here. The parameter range where high performance is achieved is broad in q95 and density normalized to the empirical density limit. MHD modes can play a key role in reaching stationary high performance, but also define the limits to achieved stability and confinement. Projection of performance in ITER from existing experiments uses empirical scalings and theory-based modelling. The status of the experimental validation of both approaches is summarized here. The database shows significant variation in the energy confinement normalized to standard H-mode confinement scalings, indicating the possible influence of additional physics variables absent from the scalings. Tests using the available information on rotation and the ratio of the electron and ion temperatures indicate neither of these variables in isolation can explain the variation in normalized confinement observed. Trends in the normalized confinement with the two dimensionless parameters that vary most from present-day experiments to ITER, gyroradius and collision frequency, are significant. Regression analysis on the multi-tokamak database has been performed, but it appears that the database is not conditioned sufficiently well to yield a new scaling for this type of plasma. Coordinated experiments on size scaling using the dimensionless parameter scaling approach find a weaker scaling with normalized gyroradius than the standard H-mode scaling. Preliminary studies on scaling with collision frequency show a favourable scaling stronger than the standard H-mode scaling. Coordinated modelling activity has resulted in successful benchmarking of modelling codes in the ITER regime. Validation of transport models using these codes on present-day experiments is in progress, but no single model has been shown to capture the variations seen in the experiments. However, projection to ITER using these models is in general agreement with the favourable projections found with the empirical scalings.
Luce, T. C.; Challis, C. D.; Ide, S.; Joffrin, E.; Kamada, Y.; Politzer, P. A.; Schweinzer, J.; Sips, A. C. C.; Stober, J.; Giruzzi, G.; Kessel, C. E.; Murakami, M.; Na, Y.-S.; Park, J. M.; Polevoi, A. R.; Budny, R. V.; Citrin, J.; Garcia, J.; Hayashi, N.; Hobirk, J.; Hudson, B. F.; Imbeaux, F.; Isayama, A.; McDonald, D. C.; Nakano, T.; Oyama, N.; Parail, V. V.; Petrie, T. W.; Petty, C. C.; Suzuki, T.; Wade, M. R.; the ITPA Integrated Operation Scenario Topical Group Members; the ASDEX-Upgrade Team; the DIII-D Team; EFDA Contributors, JET; the JT-60U Team
Advanced scenarios for ITER operation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
In thermonuclear fusion research using magnetic confinement, the tokamak is the leading candidate for achieving the conditions required for a reactor. An international experiment, ITER, is proposed as the next essential and critical step on the path to demonstrating the scientific and technological feasibility of fusion energy. ITER is to produce and study plasmas dominated by self-heating. This would give unique opportunities to explore, in reactor relevant conditions, the physics of ?-particle heating, plasma turbulence and turbulent transport, stability limits to the plasma pressure and exhaust of power and particles. Important new results obtained in experiments, theory and modelling, enable an improved understanding of the physical processes occurring in tokamak plasmas and give enhanced confidence that ITER will achieve its goals. In particular, progress has been made in research to raise the performance of tokamaks, aimed to extend the discharge pulse length towards steady-state operation (advanced scenarios). Standard tokamak discharges have a current density increasing monotonically towards the centre of the plasma. Advanced scenarios, on the other hand, use a modified current density profile. Different advanced scenarios range from (i) plasmas that sustain a central region with a flat current density profile (zero magnetic shear), capable of operating stationary at high plasma pressure, to (ii) discharges with an off-axis maximum of the current density profile (reversed magnetic shear in the core), able to form internal transport barriers, to increase the confinement of the plasma. The physics of advanced tokamak discharges is described, together with an overview of recent results from different tokamak experiments. International collaboration between experiments aims to provide a better understanding, control and optimization of these plasmas. The ability to explore advanced scenarios in ITER is very desirable, in order to verify the results obtained in experiments today and to demonstrate the potential to significantly increase the economic attractiveness of the tokamak.
Sips, A. C. C.; Steady State Operation for the Transport Physics topical Groups of International Tokamak Physics Activity
Secure communication in internet environments: a hierarchical key management scheme for end-to-end encryption
A hierarchical approach for key management is presented which utilizes the existing network specific protocols at the lower levels and protocols between authentication servers and\\/or control centers of different networks at the higher levels. Details of this approach are discussed for specific illustrative scenarios to demonstrate the implementation simplicity. A formal verification of the security of the resulting system in
W.-P. Lu; M. K. Sundareshan
Stepping into futures: exploring the potential of interactive media for participatory scenarios on social ecological systems
In this paper, we present a strategy for the development of interactive media scenarios to help communicate uncertainties and complexities in coupled human and natural systems. Insights arising from Complex Adaptive Systems theory advocate the need for more adaptive perspectives on natural resources management. For the collaborative exploration of future complexities and uncertainties, participatory scenario development has proven to be
J. M. Vervoort; K. Kok; Lammeren van R. J. A; A. Veldkamp
An IMS-Learning Design Editor for a Higher Education Blended Learning Scenario
The IMS-Learning Design has been developed to support the creation of reusable and pedagogically neutral learning scenarios and content. Although it is especially suitable for eLearning, there is a lot of interest on using it in higher education blended learning scenarios. However there are some related key issues which must be managed such as cultural bias and the need for
Roc�o Garc�a Robles; Laura Ferrer; Daniel Cagigas
Driving across the North Yorkshire moors in the course of a working day has its attractions, but the size of the largest FHSA in England and Wales can make for communication problems that need careful handling. For Chris Town, General Manager, North Yorkshire FHSA, management is about the art of diplomacy. PMID:10119208
Town, C
Biosphere scenario development. An interim report of an SKI, SSI, SKB working group.
National Technical Information Service (NTIS)
The Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate and the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co have initiated a project for the development of scenarios for the behaviour of radionuclides in high level waste following deep geological disposal. The main objec...
Extranets: Future Trends and Scenarios.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
The extranet--use of the Internet by a corporation's employees and extranet partners for safe communication, collaboration, and commerce--presents the opportunity for true, value-added services on the part network managers. Those that outsource the physical infrastructure management to service providers will have a head start on other networking�
Pincince, Thomas
Co-existence of agricultural production systems.
Strategies and best practices for the co-existence of GM and non-GM crops need to be developed and implemented with the participation of farmers and other stakeholders. According to the principle of 'subsidiarity', decisions should be made by the lowest authority possible. When applying this concept to the case of GM crops, the affected society should determine their use and management in a regional decision-making process. Public participation is better accomplished at a lower level, and democratic deficits in decision-making on GMOs are better resolved, enabling farmers to manage or avoid GM crops. Ultimately, voluntary GMO-free zones might be a tool for sustainable co-existence and GM-free production and GMO-free zones might create a specific image for marketing regional products and services, such as tourism. PMID:16545877
Jank, Bernhard; Rath, Johannes; Gaugitsch, Helmut
TMI-2 accident scenario update
Estimates of the end-state core configuration have been developed from recent inspection of the lower regions of the TMI-2 core, core support assembly, and lower plenum regions. The inspection data have provided a basis for estimating the extent of damage to the core and core support structures and have confirmed that the migration pathway of the molten core material to the lower plenum occurred in the east quadrant of the reactor vessel. This paper integrates the core inspection data with other TMI-2 data and supporting analysis to update the best-estimate core damage progression scenario.
Tolman, E.L.; Kuan, P.; Broughton, J.M.
Cascadia Earthquake and Tsunami Scenario for California's North Coast
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
In 1995 the California Division of Mines and Geology (now the California Geological Survey) released a planning scenario for an earthquake on the southern portion of the Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ). This scenario was the 8th and last of the Earthquake Planning Scenarios published by CDMG. It was the largest magnitude CDMG scenario, an 8.4 earthquake rupturing the southern 200 km of the CSZ, and it was the only scenario to include tsunami impacts. This scenario event has not occurred in historic times and depicts impacts far more severe than any recent earthquake. The local tsunami hazard is new; there is no written record of significant local tsunami impact in the region. The north coast scenario received considerable attention in Humboldt and Del Norte Counties and contributed to a number of mitigation efforts. The Redwood Coast Tsunami Work Group (RCTWG), an organization of scientists, emergency managers, government agencies, and businesses from Humboldt, Mendocino, and Del Norte Counties, was formed in 1996 to assist local jurisdictions in understanding the implications of the scenario and to promote a coordinated, consistent mitigation program. The group has produced print and video materials and promoted response and evacuation planning. Since 1997 the RCTWG has sponsored an Earthquake Tsunami Education Room at county fairs featuring preparedness information, hands-on exhibits and regional tsunami hazard maps. Since the development of the TsunamiReady Program in 2001, the RCTWG facilitates community TsunamiReady certification. To assess the effectiveness of mitigation efforts, five telephone surveys between 1993 and 2001 were conducted by the Humboldt Earthquake Education Center. A sixth survey is planned for this fall. Each survey includes between 400 and 600 respondents. Over the nine year period covered by the surveys, the percent with houses secured to foundations has increased from 58 to 80 percent, respondents aware of a local tsunami hazard increased from 51 to 73 percent and knowing what the Cascadia subduction zone is from 16 to 42 percent. It is not surprising that the earlier surveys showed increases as several strong earthquakes occurred in the area between 1992 and 1995 and there was considerable media attention. But the 2001 survey, seven years after the last widely felt event, still shows significant increases in almost all preparedness indicators. The 1995 CDMG scenario was not the sole reason for the increased interest in earthquake and tsunami hazards in the area, but the scenario gave government recognition to an event that was previously only considered seriously in the scientific community and has acted as a catalyst for mitigation and planning efforts.
Dengler, L.
Modelling of disaster risk scenarios at La Soufri�re, Guadeloupe
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
As part of the CASAVA project, potential consequences of an eruption at La Soufri�re volcano, Guadeloupe, have been quantified for the local population and infrastructure through development of an impact model. For a given eruption scenario, and on a 250m grid, the model incorporates hazard information about areas potentially affected by ash fall (vertical loading) and/or pyroclastic density currents (peak dynamic pressure, temperature and duration) sourced from numerical modelling able to describe the transient and 3D features of the phenomena. This is combined with vulnerability information derived from engineering and medical analyses of the exposure and response of humans and buildings to these hazards. Model outputs include maps of the numbers and severity of human casualties and building damage for each given scenario. The impact model is further coupled with a dynamic casualty management model that then tracks the rescue, transport and treatment of casualties to estimate the impact of the eruption on the emergency services and on casualty numbers with time following the eruption. This allows dynamic mapping of human survival in space and time following the eruption scenario and can be combined in GIS with emergency management data to support public officials responsible for planning for a crisis. To identify suitable actions that could be taken to reduce the loss of lives and infrastructure, the consequences from different disaster risk scenarios can be tested by varying the crisis conditions for each model run. For example, by incorporating short- and long-term mitigation activities (e.g. partial evacuation, construction of additional road capacity), differing emergency management (e.g. the location of triage centres) or simulating alternative disaster conditions (e.g. reduced rescuing capacity because of ashy conditions). The models are deliberately generic in nature and could be applied to any volcano, or to other natural hazards, providing input hazard scenarios and appropriate exposure and vulnerability data are available.
Jenkins, Susanna; Spence, Robin; Baxter, Peter; Komorowski, Jean-Christophe; Barsotti, Sara; Esposti-Ongaro, Tomaso; Neri, Augusto
Building Scenarios from a Heterogeneous Alert Stream
We describe a realtime algorithm for combining the alerts produced by several heterogeneous intrusion detection sensors into sce- narios. Each scenario represents a sequence of actions performed by a single actor or organization. Our algorithm, which is probabilistic in na- ture, can determine the scenario membership of a new alert in time pro- portional to the number of candidate scenarios.
Oliver M. Dain; Robert K. Cunningham
Addressing an Uncertain Future Using Scenario Analysis
The Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) has had a longstanding goal of introducing uncertainty into the analysis it routinely conducts in compliance with the Government Performance and Results Act (GPRA) and for strategic management purposes. The need to introduce some treatment of uncertainty arises both because it would be good general management practice, and because intuitively many of the technologies under development by EERE have a considerable advantage in an uncertain world. For example, an expected kWh output from a wind generator in a future year, which is not exposed to volatile and unpredictable fuel prices, should be truly worth more than an equivalent kWh from an alternative fossil fuel fired technology. Indeed, analysts have attempted to measure this value by comparing the prices observed in fixed-price natural gas contracts compared to ones in which buyers are exposed to market prices (see Bolinger, Wiser, and Golove and (2004)). In addition to the routine reasons for exploring uncertainty given above, the history of energy markets appears to have exhibited infrequent, but troubling, regime shifts, i.e., historic turning points at which the center of gravity or fundamental nature of the system appears to have abruptly shifted. Figure 1 below shows an estimate of how the history of natural gas fired generating costs has evolved over the last three decades. The costs shown incorporate both the well-head gas price and an estimate of how improving generation technology has gradually tended to lower costs. The purpose of this paper is to explore scenario analysis as a method for introducing uncertainty into EERE's forecasting in a manner consistent with the preceding observation. The two questions are how could it be done, and what is its academic basis, if any. Despite the interest in uncertainty methods, applying them poses some major hurdles because of the heavy reliance of EERE on forecasting tools that are deterministic in nature, such as the Energy Information Administration's (EIA's) National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). NEMS is the source of the influential Annual Energy Outlook whose business-as-usual (BAU) case, the Reference Case, forms the baseline for most of the U.S. energy policy discussion. NEMS is an optimizing model because: 1. it iterates to an equilibrium among modules representing the supply, demand, and energy conversion subsectors; and 2. several subsectoral models are individually solved using linear programs (LP). Consequently, it is deeply rooted in the recent past and any effort to simulate the consequences of a major regime shift as depicted in Figure 1 must come by applying an exogenously specified scenario. And, more generally, simulating futures that lie outside of our recent historic experience, even if they do not include regime switches suggest some form of scenario approach. At the same time, the statistical validity of scenarios that deviate significantly outside the ranges of historic inputs should be questioned.
Siddiqui, Afzal S.; Marnay, Chris
Evaluating Potential for Large Releases from CO2 StorageReservoirs: Analogs, Scenarios, and Modeling Needs
While the purpose of geologic storage of CO{sub 2} in deep saline formations is to trap greenhouse gases underground, the potential exists for CO{sub 2} to escape from the target reservoir, migrate upward along permeable pathways, and discharge at the land surface. Such discharge is not necessarily a serious concern, as CO{sub 2} is a naturally abundant and relatively benign gas in low concentrations. However, there is a potential risk to health, safety and environment (HSE) in the event that large localized fluxes of CO{sub 2} were to occur at the land surface, especially where CO{sub 2} could accumulate. In this paper, we develop possible scenarios for large CO{sub 2} fluxes based on the analysis of natural analogues, where large releases of gas have been observed. We are particularly interested in scenarios which could generate sudden, possibly self-enhancing, or even eruptive release events. The probability for such events may be low, but the circumstances under which they might occur and potential consequences need to be evaluated in order to design appropriate site selection and risk management strategies. Numerical modeling of hypothetical test cases is needed to determine critical conditions for such events, to evaluate whether such conditions may be possible at designated storage sites, and, if applicable, to evaluate the potential HSE impacts of such events and design appropriate mitigation strategies.
Birkholzer, Jens; Pruess, Karsten; Lewicki, Jennifer; Tsang,Chin-Fu; Karimjee, Anhar
Evaluation of introduction scenarios for a broadband access network
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
The provision of broadband services at a reasonable cost to residential and small business customers is one of the major challenges facing operators. The introduction of cost-effective systems considering the existing infrastructure is an important study. Within the RACE project 2024 Broadband Access Facilities, the economic and evolution aspects of different introduction scenarios of a broadband access system suitable for providing these services are investigated. This paper presents the final results of this study.
Bocker, Geert-Jan; Cuthbert, Laurie; Gobbi, Roberta; Inch, Robert; Sara, Lini
Industrial research for transmutation scenarios
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
This article presents the results of research scenarios for americium transmutation in a 22nd century French nuclear fleet, using sodium fast breeder reactors. We benchmark the americium transmutation benefits and drawbacks with a reference case consisting of a hypothetical 60 GWe fleet of pure plutonium breeders. The fluxes in the various parts of the cycle (reactors, fabrication plants, reprocessing plants and underground disposals) are calculated using EDF's suite of codes, comparable in capabilities to those of other research facilities. We study underground thermal heat load reduction due to americium partitioning and repository area minimization. We endeavor to estimate the increased technical complexity of surface facilities to handle the americium fluxes in special fuel fabrication plants, americium fast burners, special reprocessing shops, handling equipments and transport casks between those facilities.
Camarcat, Noel; Garzenne, Claude; Le Mer, Jo�l; Leroyer, Hadrien; Desroches, Estelle; Delbecq, Jean-Michel
This is the initial publication of the results of a cooperative project to examine the implications of a major earthquake in southern California. The study comprised eight counties: Imperial, Kern, Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego, and Ventura. Its results will be used as the basis of an emergency response and preparedness exercise, the Great Southern California ShakeOut, and for this purpose we defined our earthquake as occurring at 10:00 a.m. on November 13, 2008. As members of the southern California community use the ShakeOut Scenario to plan and execute the exercise, we anticipate discussion and feedback. This community input will be used to refine our assessment and will lead to a formal publication in early 2009. Our goal in the ShakeOut Scenario is to identify the physical, social and economic consequences of a major earthquake in southern California and in so doing, enable the users of our results to identify what they can change now?before the earthquake?to avoid catastrophic impact after the inevitable earthquake occurs. To do so, we had to determine the physical damages (casualties and losses) caused by the earthquake and the impact of those damages on the region?s social and economic systems. To do this, we needed to know about the earthquake ground shaking and fault rupture. So we first constructed an earthquake, taking all available earthquake research information, from trenching and exposed evidence of prehistoric earthquakes, to analysis of instrumental recordings of large earthquakes and the latest theory in earthquake source physics. We modeled a magnitude (M) 7.8 earthquake on the southern San Andreas Fault, a plausible event on the fault most likely to produce a major earthquake. This information was then fed forward into the rest of the ShakeOut Scenario. The damage impacts of the scenario earthquake were estimated using both HAZUS-MH and expert opinion through 13 special studies and 6 expert panels, and fall into four categories: building damages, non-structural damages, damage to lifelines and infrastructure, and fire losses. The magnitude 7.8 ShakeOut earthquake is modeled to cause about 1800 deaths and $213 billion of economic losses. These numbers are as low as they are because of aggressive retrofitting programs that have increased the seismic resistance of buildings, highways and lifelines, and economic resiliency. These numbers are as large as they are because much more retrofitting could still be done. The earthquake modeled here may never happen. Big earthquakes on the San Andreas Fault are inevitable, and by geologic standards extremely common, but probably will not be exactly like this one. The next very damaging earthquake could easily be on another fault. However, lessons learned from this particular event apply to many other events and could provide benefits in many possible future events.
Jones, Lucile M.; Bernknopf, Richard; Cox, Dale; Goltz, James; Hudnut, Kenneth; Mileti, Dennis; Perry, Suzanne; Ponti, Daniel; Porter, Keith; Reichle, Michael; Seligson, Hope; Shoaf, Kimberley; Treiman, Jerry; Wein, Anne
Entanglement cost in practical scenarios.
We quantify the one-shot entanglement cost of an arbitrary bipartite state, that is, the minimum number of singlets needed by two distant parties to create a single copy of the state up to a finite accuracy, by using local operations and classical communication only. This analysis, in contrast to the traditional one, pertains to scenarios of practical relevance, in which resources are finite and transformations can be achieved only approximately. Moreover, it unveils a fundamental relation between two well-known entanglement measures, namely, the Schmidt number and the entanglement of formation. Using this relation, we are able to recover the usual expression of the entanglement cost as a special case. PMID:21517364
Buscemi, Francesco; Datta, Nilanjana
Superclustering in the explosion scenario
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
A simple toy model is used to study the spatial distribution of rich clusters in a generic type of explosion scenario. The model, parameterized by the distribution of shell radii and the filling factor, places spherical shells at random and identifies each 'knot' as a cluster. The resulting cluster correlation function is close to a power law extending to the diameter of the largest spheres. Richer clusters form at the intersections of bigger shells and so have stronger correlations. Typical shell radii and filling factors are required to produce the observed number density of clusters. Models with a power-law radius distribution also reproduce the richness distribution of clusters in the Abell catalog. Supercluster multiplicity functions, void probabilities, number counts, topology statistics, and velocity correlations confirm the presence of strong superclustering and quantify the non-Gaussian nature of the model.
Weinberg, David H.; Ostriker, Jeremiah P.; Dekel, Avishai
Climate mitigation scenarios of drained peat soils
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
The national inventory reports (NIR) submitted to the UNFCCC show Sweden - which as many other countries has wetlands where parts have been drained for agriculture and forestry purposes, - to annually emit 12 million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalents, which is more GHG'es than industrial energy use release in Sweden. Similar conditions can be found in other northern countries, having cool and wet conditions, naturally promoting peat accumulation, and where land use management over the last centuries have promoted draining activities. These drained peatland, though covering only 2% of the land area, have emissions corresponding to 20% of the total reported NIR emissions. This substantial emission contribution, however, is hidden within the Land Use Land Use Change and Forestry sector (LULUCF) where the forest Carbon uptake is even larger, which causes the peat soil emissions become invisible. The only drained soil emission accounted in the Swedish Kyoto reporting is the N2O emission from agricultural drained organic soils of the size 0.5 million tonnes CO2e yr-1. This lack of visibility has made incentives for land use change and management neither implemented nor suggested, however with large potential. Rewetting has the potential to decrease soil mineralization, why CO2 and N2O emissions are mitigated. However if the soil becomes very wet CH4 emission will increase together with hampered plant growth. By ecological modeling, using the CoupModel the climate change mitigation potential have been estimated for four different land use scenarios; 1, Drained peat soil with Spruce (business as usual scenario), 2, raised ground water level to 20 cm depth and Willow plantation, 3, raised ground water level to 10 cm depth and Reed Canary Grass, and 4, rewetting to an average water level in the soil surface with recolonizing wetland plants and mosses. We calculate the volume of biomass production per year, peat decomposition, N2O emission together with nitrate and DOC/POC leakage. Based on the modelling results a cost benefit analysis is performed (economics), guiding to the design of environmental policies needed for land use change to come true.
Kasimir Klemedtsson, �sa; Coria, Jessica; He, Hongxing; Liu, Xiangping; Nord�n, Anna
Integrated Analysis of Market Transformation Scenarios with HyTrans
This report presents alternative visions of the transition of light-duty vehicle transportation in the United States from petroleum to hydrogen power. It is a supporting document to the U.S. Department of Energy's Summary Report, "Analysis of the Transition to a Hydrogen Economy and the Potential Hydrogen Infrastructure Requirements" (U.S. DOE, 2007). Three alternative early transition scenarios were analyzed using a market simulation model called HyTrans. The HyTrans model simultaneously represents the behavior of fuel suppliers, vehicle manufacturers and consumers, explicitly recognizing the importance of fuel availability and the diversity of vehicle choices to consumers, and dependence of fuel supply on the existence of market demand. Competitive market outcomes are simulated by means of non-linear optimization of social surplus through the year 2050. The three scenarios specify different rates and geographical distributions of market penetration for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles from 2012 through 2025. Scenario 1 leads to 2 million vehicles on U.S. roads by 2025, while Scenarios 2 and 3 result in 5 million and 10 million FCVs in use by 2025, respectively. The HyTrans model "costs out" the transition scenarios and alternative policies for achieving them. It then tests whether the scenarios, together with the achievement of the DOE's technology goals for fuel cell vehicles and hydrogen infrastructure technologies could lead to a sustainable transition to hydrogen powered transportation. Given the achievement of DOE's ambitious technology goals, all three scenarios appear to lead to a sustainable transition to hydrogen. In the absence of early transition deployment effort, no transition is likely to begin before 2045. The cumulative costs of the transition scenarios to the government range from $8 billion to $45 billion, depending on the scenario, the policies adopted and the degree of cost-sharing with industry. In the absence of carbon constraining policies, the transition to hydrogen achieves about the same reduction in CO2 emissions as a transition to advanced gasoline-electric hybrid vehicles. With significant carbon policy, drastic reductions in well-to-wheel CO2 emissions are possible. Energy transition modeling is a newly evolving field and much remains to be done to improve the utility of models like HyTrans.
Greene, David L [ORNL; Leiby, Paul Newsome [ORNL; Bowman, David Charles [ORNL
Taft Prison Facility: Cost Scenarios.
National Technical Information Service (NTIS)
On July 21, 1997, the Federal Bureau of Prisons (BOP) announced that Wackenhut Corrections would be awarded the contract to manage a new Federal facility. Located in Taft, California, the new facility had been designed and built by the Federal government ...
J. Nelson
Thermal insulation in existing dwellings.
National Technical Information Service (NTIS)
A review of energy conservation potential and thermal comfort enhancement through thermal insulation retrofitting of existing dwellings is presented; characteristics, performances, useability and quality certification standards of thermal insulation mater...
Dynamical Scenarios for Chromosome Bi-orientation
Chromosome bi-orientation at the metaphase spindle is essential for precise segregation of the genetic material. The process is error-prone, and error-correction mechanisms exist to switch misaligned chromosomes to the correct, bi-oriented configuration. Here, we analyze several possible dynamical scenarios to explore how cells might achieve correct bi-orientation in an efficient and robust manner. We first illustrate that tension-mediated feedback between the sister kinetochores can give rise to a bistable switch, which allows robust distinction between a loose attachment with low tension and a strong attachment with high tension. However, this mechanism has difficulties in explaining how bi-orientation is initiated starting from unattached kinetochores. We propose four possible mechanisms to overcome this problem (exploiting molecular noise; allowing an efficient attachment of kinetochores already in the absence of tension; a trial-and-error oscillation; and a stochastic bistable switch), and assess their impact on the bi-orientation process. Based on our results and supported by experimental data, we put forward a trial-and-error oscillation and a stochastic bistable switch as two elegant mechanisms with the potential to promote bi-orientation both efficiently and robustly.
Zhang, Tongli; Oliveira, Raquel A.; Schmierer, Bernhard; Novak, Bela
Dark radiation and interacting scenarios
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
An extra dark radiation component can be present in the universe in the form of sterile neutrinos, axions or other very light degrees of freedom which may interact with the dark matter sector. We derive here the cosmological constraints on the dark radiation abundance, on its effective velocity and on its viscosity parameter from current data in dark radiation-dark matter coupled models. The cosmological bounds on the number of extra dark radiation species do not change significantly when considering interacting schemes. We also find that the constraints on the dark radiation effective velocity are degraded by an order of magnitude while the errors on the viscosity parameter are a factor of two larger when considering interacting scenarios. If future Cosmic Microwave Background data are analyzed assuming a noninteracting model but the dark radiation and the dark matter sectors interact in nature, the reconstructed values for the effective velocity and for the viscosity parameter will be shifted from their standard 1/3 expectation, namely ceff2=0.34-0.003+0.006 and cvis2=0.29-0.001+0.002 at 95% C.L. for the future COrE mission data.
Diamanti, Roberta; Giusarma, Elena; Mena, Olga; Archidiacono, Maria; Melchiorri, Alessandro
The unfolding: scenario planning in nursing.
An interdisciplinary consortium organized a group to explore the meaning and the future of nursing in South Dakota using scenario planning. This column provides a general description of the four scenarios that emerged, some observations about how they might evolve, comments on their implications, and first-person stories, as told by fictitious residents. The process of scenario planning is connected to nursing science by explicating how five lessons of scenario planning are linked with Parse's human becoming concepts of creative imagining, glimpsing the paradoxical, and affirming personal becoming. PMID:12593311
Woude, Diana Vander; Damgaard, Gloria; Hegge, Margaret J; Soholt, Deb; Bunkers, Sandra Schmidt
The Role of Pre-Existing Disturbances in the Effect of Marine Reserves on Coastal Ecosystems: A Modelling Approach
We have used an end-to-end ecosystem model to explore responses over 30 years to coastal no-take reserves covering up to 6% of the fifty thousand square kilometres of continental shelf and slope off the coast of New South Wales (Australia). The model is based on the Atlantis framework, which includes a deterministic, spatially resolved three-dimensional biophysical model that tracks nutrient flows through key biological groups, as well as extraction by a range of fisheries. The model results support previous empirical studies in finding clear benefits of reserves to top predators such as sharks and rays throughout the region, while also showing how many of their major prey groups (including commercial species) experienced significant declines. It was found that the net impact of marine reserves was dependent on the pre-existing levels of disturbance (i.e. fishing pressure), and to a lesser extent on the size of the marine reserves. The high fishing scenario resulted in a strongly perturbed system, where the introduction of marine reserves had clear and mostly direct effects on biomass and functional biodiversity. However, under the lower fishing pressure scenario, the introduction of marine reserves caused both direct positive effects, mainly on shark groups, and indirect negative effects through trophic cascades. Our study illustrates the need to carefully align the design and implementation of marine reserves with policy and management objectives. Trade-offs may exist not only between fisheries and conservation objectives, but also among conservation objectives.
Savina, Marie; Condie, Scott A.; Fulton, Elizabeth A.
The role of pre-existing disturbances in the effect of marine reserves on coastal ecosystems: a modelling approach.
We have used an end-to-end ecosystem model to explore responses over 30 years to coastal no-take reserves covering up to 6% of the fifty thousand square kilometres of continental shelf and slope off the coast of New South Wales (Australia). The model is based on the Atlantis framework, which includes a deterministic, spatially resolved three-dimensional biophysical model that tracks nutrient flows through key biological groups, as well as extraction by a range of fisheries. The model results support previous empirical studies in finding clear benefits of reserves to top predators such as sharks and rays throughout the region, while also showing how many of their major prey groups (including commercial species) experienced significant declines. It was found that the net impact of marine reserves was dependent on the pre-existing levels of disturbance (i.e. fishing pressure), and to a lesser extent on the size of the marine reserves. The high fishing scenario resulted in a strongly perturbed system, where the introduction of marine reserves had clear and mostly direct effects on biomass and functional biodiversity. However, under the lower fishing pressure scenario, the introduction of marine reserves caused both direct positive effects, mainly on shark groups, and indirect negative effects through trophic cascades. Our study illustrates the need to carefully align the design and implementation of marine reserves with policy and management objectives. Trade-offs may exist not only between fisheries and conservation objectives, but also among conservation objectives. PMID:23593432
Savina, Marie; Condie, Scott A; Fulton, Elizabeth A
Does a Quarterlife Crisis Exist?
In this study, the authors examined quarterlife crisis, defined in the popular press as an identity crisis that leaves recent college graduates depressed, anxious, and full of doubt. To determine if a unique crisis exists, 4 groups of young adults (recent high school [n = 23] and college [n = 117] graduates in the workforce, present undergraduate [n = 75],
Nicole E. Rossi; Carolyn J. Mebert
WAP Enabling Existing HTML Applications
Already-existing HTML applications can be converted into WML (Wireless Markup Language) applications for use on WAP (Wireless Application Protocol) enabled devices, yet this process is not as simple as the alteration of the markup tags. This paper investigates the problems associated with the conversion process by examining the conversion of a functional information system that would be of benefit to
Marcin Metter; Robert M. Colomb
The Greenhouse Effect Does Exist!
In particular, without the greenhouse effect, essential features of the atmospheric temperature profile as a function of height cannot be described, i.e., the existence of the tropopause above which we see an almost isothermal temperature curve, whereas beneath it the temperature curve is nearly adiabatic. The relationship between the greenhouse effect and observed temperature curve is explained and the paper
Jochen Ebel
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Questions the existence of attention deficit disorder (ADD), a commonly diagnosed "disease" based on behavioral characteristics. There may be no medical or physiological basis for ADD. The National Association of School Psychologists deplores labeling children and creating categories of exclusion. Instead, educators should respond to individual�
Armstrong, Thomas
The evolution of the IPCC's emissions scenarios
The IPCC's emissions scenarios form the basis for the majority of long-term climate change projections, including those of the current Fourth Assessment Report. The main characteristics of the IPCC's three scenario series � published in 1990, 1992 and 2000 � have changed significantly over time: titles, classification, assumptions and methods have all changed. This article analyses the evolution of the
Bastien Girod; Arnim Wiek; Harald Mieg; Mike Hulme
Layering Social Interaction Scenarios on Environmental Simulation
For an integrated simulation such as the natural environment affected by human society, it is indispensable to provide an integrated simulator that incorporates multiple computational models. We proposed a multi-layer socio-environmental simulation by layering the social interaction scenario on environmental simulation. For this simulation, we connect two different systems. One is a scenario description language Q, which is suitable for
Daisuke Torii; Toru Ishida; St�phane Bonneaud; Alexis Drogoul
Fusing a Heterogeneous Alert Stream into Scenarios
An algorithm for fusing the alerts produced by multiple heterogeneous intrusion detection systems is pre- sented. The algorithm runs in realtime, combining the alerts into scenarios; each is composed of a sequence of alerts produced by a single actor or organization. The software is capable of discovering scenarios even if stealthy attack methods, such as forged IP addresses or long
Oliver Dain; Robert K. Cunningham
Adaptation Scenarios for New Media Artworks
Artists in new media arts explore the possibilities offered by digital technologies to create adaptive and interactive new media artworks integrating audio and video. In this paper, we are interested in adaptation mechanisms for such artworks and we focus on the design and implementation of adaptation scenarios. We formalize adaptation scenarios by using the event-condition-action paradigm and we introduce the
Anis Ouali; Brigitte Kerherv�; Odile Marcotte; Paul Landon
Global Biodiversity Scenarios for the Year 2100
Scenarios of changes in biodiversity for the year 2100 can now be developed based on scenarios of changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide, climate, vegetation, and land use and the known sensitivity of biodiversity to these changes. This study identified a ranking of the importance of drivers of change, a ranking of the biomes with respect to expected changes, and the
Osvaldo E. Sala; F. Stuart Chapin III; Juan J. Armesto; Eric Berlow; Janine Bloomfield; Rodolfo Dirzo; Elisabeth Huber-Sanwald; Laura F. Huenneke; Robert B. Jackson; David M. Lodge; Harold A. Mooney; N. LeRoy Poff; Martin T. Sykes; Brian H. Walker; Diana H. Wall
Molecular Diagnostic Analysis of Outbreak Scenarios
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
In the current laboratory assignment, technical aspects of the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) are integrated in the context of six different bacterial outbreak scenarios. The "Enterobacterial Repetitive Intergenic Consensus Sequence" (ERIC) PCR was used to analyze different outbreak scenarios. First, groups of 2-4 students determined optimal�
Morsink, M. C.; Dekter, H. E.; Dirks-Mulder, A.; van Leeuwen, W. B.
An overview of alternative fossil fuel price and carbon regulation scenarios
The benefits of the Department of Energy's research and development (R&D) efforts have historically been estimated under business-as-usual market and policy conditions. In recognition of the insurance value of R&D, however, the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) and the Office of Fossil Energy (FE) have been exploring options for evaluating the benefits of their R&D programs under an array of alternative futures. More specifically, an FE-EERE Scenarios Working Group (the Working Group) has proposed to EERE and FE staff the application of an initial set of three scenarios for use in the Working Group's upcoming analyses: (1) a Reference Case Scenario, (2) a High Fuel Price Scenario, which includes heightened natural gas and oil prices, and (3) a Carbon Cap-and-Trade Scenario. The immediate goal is to use these scenarios to conduct a pilot analysis of the benefits of EERE and FE R&D efforts. In this report, the two alternative scenarios being considered by EERE and FE staff--carbon cap-and-trade and high fuel prices--are compared to other scenarios used by energy analysts and utility planners. The report also briefly evaluates the past accuracy of fossil fuel price forecasts. We find that the natural gas prices through 2025 proposed in the FE-EERE Scenarios Working Group's High Fuel Price Scenario appear to be reasonable based on current natural gas prices and other externally generated gas price forecasts and scenarios. If anything, an even more extreme gas price scenario might be considered. The price escalation from 2025 to 2050 within the proposed High Fuel Price Scenario is harder to evaluate, primarily because few existing forecasts or scenarios extend beyond 2025, but, at first blush, it also appears reasonable. Similarly, we find that the oil prices originally proposed by the Working Group in the High Fuel Price Scenario appear to be reasonable, if not conservative, based on: (1) the current forward market for oil, (2) current oil prices, (3) externally generated oil price forecasts, and (4) the historical difficulty in accurately forecasting oil prices. Overall, a spread between the FE-EERE High Oil Price and Reference scenarios of well over $8/bbl is supported by the literature. We conclude that a wide range of carbon regulation scenarios are possible, especially within the time frame considered by EERE and FE (through 2050). The Working Group's Carbon Cap-and-Trade Scenario is found to be less aggressive than many Kyoto-style targets that have been analyzed, and similar in magnitude to the proposed Climate Stewardship Act. The proposed scenario is more aggressive than some other scenarios found in the literature, however, and ignores carbon banking and offsets and does not allow nuclear power to expand. We are therefore somewhat concerned that the stringency of the proposed carbon regulation scenario in the 2010 to 2025 period will lead to a particularly high estimated cost of carbon reduction. As described in more detail later, we encourage some flexibility in the Working Group's ultimate implementation of the Carbon Cap-and-Trade Scenario. We conclude by identifying additional scenarios that might be considered in future analyses, describing a concern with the proposed specification of the High Fuel Price Scenario, and highlighting the possible difficulty of implementing extreme scenarios with current energy modeling tools.
Wiser, Ryan; Bolinger, Mark
Space mission scenario development and performance analysis tool
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
This paper discusses a new and innovative approach for a rapid spacecraft multi-disciplinary performance analysis using a tool called the Mission Scenario Development Workbench (MSDW). To meet the needs of new classes of space missions, analysis tools with proven models were developed and integrated into a framework to enable rapid trades and analyses between spacecraft designs and operational scenarios during the formulation phase of a mission. Generally speaking, spacecraft resources are highly constrained on deep space missions and this approach makes it possible to maximize the use of existing resources to attain the best possible science return. This approach also has the potential benefit of reducing the risk of costly design changes made later in the design cycle necessary to meet the mission requirements by understanding system design sensitivities early and adding appropriate margins. This paper will describe the approach used by the Mars Science Laboratory Project to accomplish this result.
Kordon, Mark; Baker, John; Gilbert, John; Hanks, David
Scenarios for Consuming Standardized Automated Demand Response Signals
Automated Demand Response (DR) programs require that Utility/ISO's deliver DR signals to participants via a machine to machine communications channel. Typically these DR signals constitute business logic information (e.g. prices and reliability/shed levels) as opposed to commands to control specific loads in the facility. At some point in the chain from the Utility/ISO to the loads in a facility, the business level information sent by the Utility/ISO must be processed and used to execute a DR strategy for the facility. This paper explores the various scenarios and types of participants that may utilize DR signals from the Utility/ISO. Specifically it explores scenarios ranging from single end user facility, to third party facility managers and DR Aggregators. In each of these scenarios it is pointed out where the DR signal sent from the Utility/ISO is processed and turned into the specific load control commands that are part of a DR strategy for a facility. The information in these signals is discussed. In some cases the DR strategy will be completely embedded in the facility while in others it may be centralized at a third party (e.g. Aggregator) and part of an aggregated set of facilities. This paper also discusses the pros and cons of the various scenarios and discusses how the Utility/ISO can use an open standardized method (e.g. Open Automated Demand Response Communication Standards) for delivering DR signals that will promote interoperability and insure that the widest range of end user facilities can participate in DR programs regardless of which scenario they belong to.
Koch, Ed; Piette, Mary Ann
Potential release scenarios for carbon nanotubes used in composites.
The expected widespread use of carbon nanotube (CNT)-composites in consumer products calls for an assessment of the possible release and exposure to workers, consumers and the environment. Release of CNTs may occur at all steps in the life cycle of products, but to date only limited information is available about release of CNTs from actual products and articles. As a starting point for exposure assessment, exploring sources and pathways of release helps to identify relevant applications and situations where the environment and especially humans may encounter releases of CNTs. It is the aim of this review to identify various potential release scenarios for CNTs used in polymers and identify the greatest likelihood of release at the various stages throughout the life-cycle of the product. The available information on release of CNTs from products and articles is reviewed in a first part. In a second part nine relevant release scenarios are described in detail: injection molding, manufacturing, sports equipment, electronics, windmill blades, fuel system components, tires, textiles, incineration, and landfills. Release from products can potentially occur by two pathways; (a) where free CNTs are released directly, or more frequently (b) where the initial release is a particle with CNTs embedded in the matrix, potentially followed by the subsequent release of CNTs from the matrix. The potential for release during manufacturing exists for all scenarios, however, this is also the situation when exposure can be best controlled. For most of the other life cycle stages and their corresponding release scenarios, potential release of CNTs can be considered to be low, but it cannot be excluded totally. Direct release to the environment is also considered to be very low for most scenarios except for the use of CNTs in tires where significant abrasion during use and release into the environment would occur. Also the possible future use of CNTs in textiles could result in consumer exposure. A possibility for significant release also exists during recycling operations when the polymers containing CNTs are handled together with other polymers and mainly occupational users would be exposed. It can be concluded that in general, significant release of CNTs from products and articles is unlikely except in manufacturing and subsequent processing, tires, recycling, and potentially in textiles. However except for high energy machining processes, most likely the resulting exposure for these scenarios will be low and to a non-pristine form of CNTs. Actual exposure studies, which quantify the amount of material released should be conducted to provide further evidence for this conclusion. PMID:23708563
Nowack, Bernd; David, Raymond M; Fissan, Heinz; Morris, Howard; Shatkin, Jo Anne; Stintz, Michael; Zepp, Richard; Brouwer, Derk
Assessment of Folsom Lake response to historical and potential future climate scenarios
An integrated forecast-decision system for Folsom Lake (California) is developed and used to assess the sensitivity of reservoir performance to various forecast-management schemes under historical and future climate scenarios. The assessments are based on various combinations of inflow forecasting models, decision rules, and climate scenarios and demonstrate that (1) reliable inflow forecasts and adaptive decision systems can substantially benefit reservoir performance and (2) dynamic operational procedures represent effective climate change coping strategies.
Yao, Huaming; Georgakakos, Aris P.
Future scenarios for plant phenotyping.
With increasing demand to support and accelerate progress in breeding for novel traits, the plant research community faces the need to accurately measure increasingly large numbers of plants and plant parameters. The goal is to provide quantitative analyses of plant structure and function relevant for traits that help plants better adapt to low-input agriculture and resource-limited environments. We provide an overview of the inherently multidisciplinary research in plant phenotyping, focusing on traits that will assist in selecting genotypes with increased resource use efficiency. We highlight opportunities and challenges for integrating noninvasive or minimally invasive technologies into screening protocols to characterize plant responses to environmental challenges for both controlled and field experimentation. Although technology evolves rapidly, parallel efforts are still required because large-scale phenotyping demands accurate reporting of at least a minimum set of information concerning experimental protocols, data management schemas, and integration with modeling. The journey toward systematic plant phenotyping has only just begun. PMID:23451789
Fiorani, Fabio; Schurr, Ulrich
The EXIST Mission Concept Study
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
EXIST is a mission designed to find and study black holes (BHs) over a wide range of environments and masses, including: 1) BHs accreting from binary companions or dense molecular clouds throughout our Galaxy and the Local Group, 2) supermassive black holes (SMBHs) lying dormant in galaxies that reveal their existence by disrupting passing stars, and 3) SMBHs that are hidden from our view at lower energies due to obscuration by the gas that they accrete. 4) the birth of stellar mass BHs which is accompanied by long cosmic gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) which are seen several times a day and may be associated with the earliest stars to form in the Universe. EXIST will provide an order of magnitude increase in sensitivity and angular resolution as well as greater spectral resolution and bandwidth compared with earlier hard X-ray survey telescopes. With an onboard optical-infra red (IR) telescope, EXIST will measure the spectra and redshifts of GRBs and their utility as cosmological probes of the highest z universe and epoch of reionization. The mission would retain its primary goal of being the Black Hole Finder Probe in the Beyond Einstein Program. However, the new design for EXIST proposed to be studied here represents a significant advance from its previous incarnation as presented to BEPAC. The mission is now less than half the total mass, would be launched on the smallest EELV available (Atlas V-401) for a Medium Class mission, and most importantly includes a two-telescope complement that is ideally suited for the study of both obscured and very distant BHs. EXIST retains its very wide field hard X-ray imaging High Energy Telescope (HET) as the primary instrument, now with improved angular and spectral resolution, and in a more compact payload that allows occasional rapid slews for immediate optical/IR imaging and spectra of GRBs and AGN as well as enhanced hard X-ray spectra and timing with pointed observations. The mission would conduct a 2 year full sky survey in scanning mode, interrupted for several orbits per day by GRB follow-ups, followed by a combined pointing-scanning mission phase for optical/IR spectroscopy and redshifts for the large AGN sample found in the survey as well as GRBs and LSST transients. A Team of university, NASA, and industry investigators will conduct the study to determine the full sensitivity and capabilities of this new configuration for EXIST. It will build on the extensive studies of the prior design for the mission and the HET and will incorporate the optical/IR telescope (hereafter IRT) now fully developed by our ITT partner for the NextView Commercial Remote Sensing mission (early 2008 launch) with a focal plane to be developed at GSFC based in part on JWST/NIRSPEC designs. No new technology is needed for either the IRT or HET instruments. The study will pay close attention to full mission cost and present a design for the Decadal Survey Workshop to ensure this even more capable EXIST mission is once again part of the next Decadal Survey.
Fishman, Gerald J.; Grindlay, J.; Hong, J.
Does Altruism Undermine Existence Value?
The debate over the use of contingent valuation for existence values or passive-use values has failed to explore the validity of motives for such values. One potential motive, altruism, has conflicting implications for benefit-cost analysis, depending on whether the altruist is paternalistic. This paper constructs models of three types of altruism and shows how benefit-cost analysis responds to each type
K. E. McConnell
Existence of Metastable Kinetic Modes
The nonlinear evolution of resonantly driven systems, such as suprathermal particle driven modes in magnetically confined plasmas, is shown to strongly depend on the existence and nature of an underlying damping mechanism. When background resonant damping is present, subcritical states can take place. In particular, purely nonlinear steady-state regimes are found, whose destabilization threshold and saturation levels are calculated and validated using numerical simulations. This nonlinear behavior can be of relevance for acoustic modes in magnetically confined plasmas.
Nguyen, C.; Luetjens, H.; Garbet, X.; Grandgirard, V.; Lesur, M. [Centre de Physique Theorique, CNRS-Ecole Polytechnique, Palaiseau (France); CEA, IRFM, F-13108 Saint-Paul-lez-Durance (France); JAEA, Higashi-Ueno 6-9-3, Taitou, Tokyo, 110-0015 (Japan)
Spatial Multicriteria Decision Analysis of Flood Risks in Aging-Dam Management in China: A Framework and Case Study
Approximately 30,000 dams in China are aging and are considered to be high-level risks. Developing a framework for analyzing spatial multicriteria flood risk is crucial to ranking management scenarios for these dams, especially in densely populated areas. Based on the theories of spatial multicriteria decision analysis, this report generalizes a framework consisting of scenario definition, problem structuring, criteria construction, spatial quantification of criteria, criteria weighting, decision rules, sensitivity analyses, and scenario appraisal. The framework is presented in detail by using a case study to rank dam rehabilitation, decommissioning and existing-condition scenarios. The results show that there was a serious inundation, and that a dam rehabilitation scenario could reduce the multicriteria flood risk by 0.25 in the most affected areas; this indicates a mean risk decrease of less than 23%. Although increased risk (<0.20) was found for some residential and commercial buildings, if the dam were to be decommissioned, the mean risk would not be greater than the current existing risk, indicating that the dam rehabilitation scenario had a higher rank for decreasing the flood risk than the decommissioning scenario, but that dam rehabilitation alone might be of little help in abating flood risk. With adjustments and improvement to the specific methods (according to the circumstances and available data) this framework may be applied to other sites.
Yang, Meng; Qian, Xin; Zhang, Yuchao; Sheng, Jinbao; Shen, Dengle; Ge, Yi
Stepping into futures: Exploring the potential of interactive media for participatory scenarios on social-ecological systems
In this paper, we present a strategy for the development of interactive media scenarios to help communicate uncertainties and complexities in coupled human and natural systems. Insights arising from Complex Adaptive Systems theory advocate the need for more adaptive perspectives on natural resources management. For the collaborative exploration of future complexities and uncertainties, participatory scenario development has proven to be
Joost M. Vervoort; Kasper Kok; Ron van Lammeren; Tom Veldkamp
LCA for household waste management when planning a new urban settlement.
When planning for a new urban settlement, industrial ecology tools like scenario building and life cycle assessment can be used to assess the environmental quality of different infrastructure solutions. In Trondheim, a new greenfield settlement with carbon-neutral ambitions is being planned and five different scenarios for the waste management system of the new settlement have been compared. The results show small differences among the scenarios, however, some benefits from increased source separation of paper and metal could be found. The settlement should connect to the existing waste management system of the city, and not resort to decentralised waste treatment or recovery methods. However, as this is an urban development project with ambitious goals for lifestyle changes, effort should be put into research and initiatives for proactive waste prevention and reuse issues. PMID:22516101
Slagstad, Helene; Bratteb�, Helge
Development Of Strategy For The Management Of LLW In The United Kingdom
The Nuclear Decommissioning Authority (NDA) is a UK non-departmental public body with a remit to clean up the civil public sector nuclear legacy. Much work has been done to date on developing contractor competition for the management of NDA-owned sites, including the UK's principal disposal facility: the Low Level Waste Repository (LLWR) in Cumbria. The competition goals and principles are integrated with the framework for the development of a UK Low Level Waste (LLW) management plan, through which the NDA will deliver its commitments to UK Government and stakeholders. Nexia Solutions has undertaken work for the NDA in assessing strategic options and scenarios for the management and disposal of current UK LLW. The volumetric, radiological and strategic limitations of existing disposition routes have been assessed against the inventories and characteristics of LLW forecast to arise. A number of potential alternative scenarios and variants for future LLW management have been modelled and assessed. (authors)
Wareing, A.S. [Nexia Solutions Ltd, Risley, Warrington, Cheshire, WA (United Kingdom); Fisher, J. [Nuclear Decommissioning Authority, Herdus House, Westlakes Science and Technology Park, Moor Row, Cumbria, CA24 3HU (United Kingdom)
Integrated modelling of ITER reference scenarios
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
The ITER Scenario Modelling Working Group (ISM WG) is organized within the European Task Force on Integrated Tokamak Modelling (ITM-TF). The main responsibility of the WG is to advance a pan-European approach to integrated predictive modelling of ITER plasmas with the emphasis on urgent issues, identified during the ITER Design Review. Three major topics are discussed, which are considered as urgent and where the WG has the best possible expertize. These are modelling of current profile control, modelling of density control and impurity control in ITER (the last two topics involve modelling of both core and SOL plasma). Different methods of heating and current drive are tested as controllers for the current profile tailoring during the current ramp-up in ITER. These include Ohmic, NBI, ECRH and LHCD methods. Simulation results elucidate the available operational margins and rank different methods according to their ability to meet different requirements. A range of 'ITER-relevant' plasmas from existing tokamaks were modelled. Simulations confirmed that the theory-based transport model, GLF23, reproduces the density profile reasonably well and can be used to assess ITER profiles with both pellet injection and gas puffing. In addition, simulations of the SOL plasma were launched using both H-mode and L-mode models for perpendicular transport within the edge barrier and in the SOL. Finally, an integrated approach was also used for the predictive modelling of impurity accumulation in ITER. This includes helium ash, extrinsic impurities (such as argon) and impurities coming from the wall (including tungsten). The relative importance of anomalous and neo-classical pinch contributions towards impurity penetration through the edge transport barrier and further accumulation in the core was assessed.
Parail, V.; Belo, P.; Boerner, P.; Bonnin, X.; Corrigan, G.; Coster, D.; Ferreira, J.; Foster, A.; Garzotti, L.; Hogeweij, G. M. D.; Houlberg, W.; Imbeaux, F.; Johner, J.; Kochl, F.; Kotov, V.; Lauro-Taroni, L.; Litaudon, X.; Lonnroth, J.; Pereverzev, G.; Peysson, Y.; Saibene, G.; Sartori, R.; Schneider, M.; Sips, G.; Strand, P.; Tardini, G.; Valovic, M.; Wiesen, S.; Wischmeier, M.; Zagorski, R.; JET EFDA contributors; EU ITM Task Force
Saltstone Disposal Facility Mechanically Stabilized Earth Vault Closure Cap Degradation Base Case: Institutional Control To Pine Forest Scenario
As part of the current Saltstone Disposal Facility (SDF) Performance Assessment (PA) revision, the closure cap configuration was reevaluated and closure cap degradation mechanisms and their impact upon infiltration through the closure cap was evaluated for the existing SDF concrete vaults (i.e. vaults 1 and 4) for the base case land use scenario (i.e. institutional control to pine forest scenario)
Hydropower and water supply: competing water uses under a future drier climate modeling scenarios for the Tagus River basin, Portugal
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Climate change in the Mediterranean region is expected to affect existing water resources, both in quantity and quality, as decreased mean annual precipitation and more frequent extreme precipitation events are likely to occur. Also, energy needs tend to increase, together with growing awareness that fossil fuels emissions are determinately responsible for global temperature rise, enhancing renewable energy use and reinforcing the importance of hydropower. When considered together, these facts represent a relevant threat to multipurpose reservoir operations. Great Lisbon main water supply (for c.a. 3 million people), managed by EPAL, is located in Castelo de Bode Reservoir, in the Tagus River affluent designated as Z�zere River. Castelo de Bode is a multipurpose infrastructure as it is also part of the hydropower network system of EDP, the main power company in Portugal. Facing the risk of potential climate change impacts on water resources availability, and as part of a wider project promoted by EPAL (designated as ADAPTACLIMA), climate change impacts on the Z�zere watershed where evaluated based on climate change scenarios for the XXI century. A sequential modeling approach was used and included downscaling climate data methodologies, hydrological modeling, volume reservoir simulations and water quality modeling. The hydrological model SWAT was used to predict the impacts of the A2 and B2 scenarios in 2010-2100, combined with changes in socio-economic drivers such as land use and water demands. Reservoir storage simulations where performed according to hydrological modeling results, water supply needs and dam operational requirements, such as minimum and maximum operational pool levels and turbine capacity. The Ce-Qual-W2 water quality model was used to assess water quality impacts. According to climate scenarios A2 and B2, rainfall decreases between 10 and 18% are expected by 2100, leading to drier climatic conditions and increased frequency and magnitude of drought periods, probably more acute by the year 2100 and in scenario A2. As a result, a decrease in inflows to the Castelo de Bode reservoir between 20 to 34% is expected, with emphasis in autumn. While for the near-term scenarios this is mostly due to a decrease in median annual inflow; for the long-term scenarios this is accompanied by lower inter-annual variability and a decrease of magnitude of wet year inflows. Associated with increased precipitation erosion potential, watershed sediment transport will probably tend to increase, enhancing phosphorous transport into surface water and thus contributing to potential eutrophication problems. However, modeling results do not indicate compromising water quality degradation. Decreased reservoir inflows should nevertheless be sufficient to sustain water supply, considering an average annual consumption of 160 hm3 y-1 and the legal prioritization of water supply over hydropower production, as worst case average annual inflows scenarios are estimated between 1 000 and 1 500 hm3 y-1. On the other hand, considering that hydropower comprises downstream releases averaging 1 400 hm3 y-1, restrictions to energy production will probably be required to compensate lower inflow periods and guaranty necessary water supply storage volumes. The presented modeling framework provided an adequate tool for assessing climate change impacts on water resources, demonstrating that climate scenarios are not likely to threaten Lisbon's water supply system but emphasizing the need for adequate reservoir management strategies contemplating the risk of competitive water uses in the Castelo de Bode reservoir.
Alexandre Diogo, Paulo; Nunes, Jo�o Pedro; Carmona Rodrigues, Ant�nio; Jo�o Cruz, Maria; Grosso, Nuno
Common Criteria Based Security Scenario Verification
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Software is required to comply with the laws and standards of software security. However, stakeholders with less concern regarding security can neither describe the behaviour of the system with regard to security nor validate the system�s behaviour when the security function conflicts with usability. Scenarios or use-case specifications are common in requirements elicitation and are useful to analyze the usability of the system from a behavioural point of view. In this paper, the authors propose both (1) a scenario language based on a simple case grammar and (2) a method to verify a scenario with rules based on security evaluation criteria.
Ohnishi, Atsushi
Quantum logics with existence property
A quantum logic ({sigma}-orthocomplete orthomodular poset L with a convex, unital, and separating set {Delta} of states) is said to have the existence property if the expectation functionals on lin({Delta}) associated with the bounded observables of L form a vector space. Classical quantum logics as well as the Hilbert space logics of traditional quantum mechanics have this property. The author shows that, if a quantum logic satisfies certain conditions in addition to having property E, then the number of its blocks (maximal classical subsystems) must either be one (classical logics) or uncountable (as in Hilbert space logics).
Schindler, C. (Univ. Bern (Switzerland))
Safety in Laboratories: Indian Scenario
Health and safety in clinical laboratories is becoming an increasingly important subject as a result of emergence of highly infectious diseases such as Hepatitis and HIV. A cross sectional study was carried out to study the safety measures being adopted in clinical laboratories of India. Heads of laboratories of teaching hospitals of India were subjected to a standardized, pretested questionnaire. Response rate was 44.8%. only 60% of laboratories had person in-charge of safety in laboratory. Seventy three percent of laboratories had safety education program regarding hazards. In 91% of laboratories staff is using protective clothing while working in laboratories. Hazardous material regulations are followed in 78% of laboratories. Regular health check ups are carried among laboratory staff in 43.4% of laboratories. Safety manual is available in 56.5% of laboratories. 73.9% of laboratories are equipped with fire extinguishers. Fume cupboards are provided in 34.7% of laboratories and they are regularly checked in 87.5% of these laboratories. In 78.26% of laboratories suitable measures are taken to minimize formation of aerosols. In 95.6% of laboratories waste is disposed off as per bio-medical waste management handling rules. Laboratory of one private medical college was accredited with NABL and safety parameters were better in that laboratory. Installing safety engineered devices apparently contributes to significant decrease in injuries in laboratories; laboratory safety has to be a part of overall quality assurance programme in hospitals. Accreditation has to be made necessary for all laboratories.
Mustafa, Ajaz; Farooq, A. Jan; Qadri, GJ; S. A., Tabish
Studies in Pennsylvania, Iowa, California, and Oregon show varying losses of terrestrial wildlife habitat in scenarios based on different assumptions about future human land use patterns. Retrospective estimates of losses of habitat since Euro-American settlement in several stud...
Linguistic Evaluation of Terrorist Scenarios: Example Application.
National Technical Information Service (NTIS)
In 2005, a group of international decision makers developed a manual process for evaluating terrorist scenarios. That process has been implemented in the approximate reasoning Java software tool, LinguisticBelief, released in FY2007. One purpose of this r...
Visualizing Risks: Icons for Information Attack Scenarios.
National Technical Information Service (NTIS)
This paper proposes icons and visual conventions for rapid comprehension and presentation of information security (INFOSEC) attack scenario information: Malicious Intruder, Buffer Overflow, Data Scavenging, QuickTime and a Photo - JPEG decompressor are ne...
H. H. Hosmer
IPCC Scenarios for the Year 2100
NSDL National Science Digital Library
The figure summarizes some of the key variations amongst the six illustrative scenarios used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in considering possible future emissions of greenhouse gases during the 21st century.
Rhode, Robert A.; Art, Globalwarming
Neutrino phenomenology of very low-energy seesaw scenarios
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
The standard model augmented by the presence of gauge-singlet right-handed neutrinos proves to be an ideal scenario for accommodating nonzero neutrino masses. Among the new parameters of this �new standard model� are right-handed neutrino Majorana masses M. Theoretical prejudice points to M much larger than the electroweak symmetry breaking scale, but it has recently been emphasized that all M values are technically natural and should be explored. Indeed, M around 1 10eV can accommodate an elegant oscillation solution to the liquid scintillator neutrino detector (LSND) anomaly, while other M values lead to several observable consequences. We consider the phenomenology of low-energy (M?1keV) seesaw scenarios. By exploring such a framework with three right-handed neutrinos, we can consistently fit all oscillation data�including those from LSND�while partially addressing several astrophysical puzzles, including anomalous pulsar kicks, heavy element nucleosynthesis in supernovae, and the existence of warm dark matter. In order to accomplish all of this, we find that a nonstandard cosmological scenario is required. Finally, low-energy seesaws�regardless of their relation to the LSND anomaly�can also be tested by future tritium beta-decay experiments, neutrinoless double-beta decay searches, and other observables. We estimate the sensitivity of such probes to M.
de Gouv�a, Andr�; Jenkins, James; Vasudevan, Nirmala
Hollow current profile scenarios for advanced tokamak reactor operations
Advanced tokamak scenarios are a possible approach to boosting reactor performances. Such schemes usually trigger current holes, a particular magnetohydrodynamics equilibrium where no current or pressure gradients exist in the core of the plasma. While such equilibria have large bootstrap fractions, flat pressure profiles in the plasma core may not be optimal for a reactor. However, moderate modifications of the equilibrium current profile can lead to diamagnetism where most of the pressure gradient is now balanced by poloidal currents and the toroidal magnetic field. In this paper, we consider the properties of diamagnetic current holes, also called ''dual equilibria,'' and demonstrate that fusion throughput can be significantly increased in such scenarios. Their stability is investigated using the DCON code. Plasmas with a beta peak of 30% and an average beta of 6% are found stable to both fixed and free-boundary modes with toroidal mode numbers n=1-4, as well as Mercier and high-n ballooning modes. This is not surprising as these scenarios have a normal beta close to 3.
Gourdain, P.-A. [Laboratory of Plasma Studies, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York 14853 (United States) and Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California 90095-1547 (United States); Leboeuf, J.-N. [JNL Scientific, Casa Grande, Arizona 85222 (United States)
Context-specific, scenario-based risk scales.
Reacting to an emergency requires quick decisions under stressful and dynamic conditions. To react effectively, responders need to know the right actions to take given the risks posed by the emergency. While existing research on risk scales focuses primarily on decision making in static environments with known risks, these scales may be inappropriate for conditions where the decision maker's time and mental resources are limited and may be infeasible if the actual risk probabilities are unknown. In this article, we propose a method to develop context-specific, scenario-based risk scales designed for emergency response training. Emergency scenarios are used as scale points, reducing our dependence on known probabilities; these are drawn from the targeted emergency context, reducing the mental resources required to interpret the scale. The scale is developed by asking trainers/trainees to rank order a range of risk scenarios and then aggregating these orderings using a Kemeny ranking. We propose measures to assess this aggregated scale's internal consistency, reliability, and validity, and we discuss how to use the scale effectively. We demonstrate our process by developing a risk scale for subsurface coal mine emergencies and test the reliability of the scale by repeating the process, with some methodological variations, several months later. PMID:22616611
Yu, Michael; Lejarraga, Tom�s; Gonzalez, Cleotilde
Attractor scenarios and superluminal signals in k-essence cosmology
Cosmological scenarios with k-essence are invoked in order to explain the observed late-time acceleration of the Universe. These scenarios avoid the need for fine-tuned initial conditions (the 'coincidence problem') because of the attractorlike dynamics of the k-essence field {phi}. It was recently shown that all k-essence scenarios with Lagrangians p=L(X){phi}{sup -2}, where X{identical_to}(1/2){phi}{sub ,{mu}}{phi}{sup ,{mu}}, necessarily involve an epoch where perturbations of {phi} propagate faster than light (the 'no-go theorem'). We carry out a comprehensive study of attractorlike cosmological solutions ('trackers') involving a k-essence scalar field {phi} and another matter component. The result of this study is a complete classification of k-essence Lagrangians that admit asymptotically stable tracking solutions, among all Lagrangians of the form p=K({phi})L(X). Using this classification, we select the class of models that describe the late-time acceleration and avoid the coincidence problem through the tracking mechanism. An analogous 'no-go theorem' still holds for this class of models, indicating the existence of a superluminal epoch. In the context of k-essence cosmology, the superluminal epoch does not lead to causality violations. We discuss the implications of superluminal signal propagation for possible causality violations in Lorentz-invariant field theories.
Kang, Jin U [Department of Physics, Kim Il Sung University, Pyongyang (Korea, Democratic People's Republic of); Arnold Sommerfeld Center, Department of Physics, Ludwig-Maximilians University, Theresienstrasse 37, 80333 Munich (Germany); Vanchurin, Vitaly; Winitzki, Sergei [Arnold Sommerfeld Center, Department of Physics, Ludwig-Maximilians University, Theresienstrasse 37, 80333 Munich (Germany)
Scenario of solid waste management in present Indian context
A trend of significant increase in municipal solid waste generation has been recorded worldwide. This has been found due to over population growth rate, industrialization, urbanization and economic growth. Consumerism speed has been found very high covering around more then 50% of total population since last decade due to higher economic growth, which has ultimately resulted in increased solid waste
R. Rajput; G. Prasad; A. K. Chopra
Managing IT for world-class manufacturing: the Indian scenario
The success of Indian manufacturing in meeting global competition will depend on its speed to move itself from a protected domestic to a world-class global manufacturing status. This paper analyses a survey conducted for the purpose of determining world-class status of Indian manufacturing companies and identifies important issues that need to be addressed in order to be a world-class manufacturer.
K. B. C Saxena; B. S Sahay
A novel scenario-based information security management exercise
In an environment of continually growing security threats, it is essential to raise the information security (INFOSEC) awareness and capabilities of ALL students entering the workforce. When considering INFOSEC education in the academic community, one often overlooked group is business students. However, the recognition and mitigation of information security risk is not only vital to the well being and survival
Michael R. Grimaila
Mobile Mining and Information Management in HealthNet Scenarios
Health and mobility of elderly people is gaining im- portance in aging societies. New communication-based methods to provide health services with personal health care devices are considered promising elements of first-class medical care services for everybody. To achieve this vision, several technological issues have to be solved: (i) body sensors to monitor vital functions have to be developed; (ii) these
Philipp Kranen; David Kensche; Saim Kim; Nadine Zimmermann; Emmanuel M�ller; Christoph Quix; Xiang Li; Thomas Gries; Thomas Seidl; Matthias Jarke; Steffen Leonhardt
Municipal Solid Waste Generation, Composition and Management: The World Scenario
Municipal solid waste (MSW) is the abridgment of the waste generated from domestic, commercial and construction activities by natural persons which is collected and treated by municipalities. Exponential growth of population, urbanization, development of social economy, coupled with improvement of living standard have resulted in an increase in the amount of MSW generation throughout the world. On an average the
Municipal Solid Waste Generation, Composition, and Management: The World Scenario
Municipal solid waste (MSW) is the abridgment of the waste generated from domestic, commercial, and construction activities by natural persons that is collected and treated by municipalities. Exponential growth of population and urbanization, and the development of social economy, coupled with the improvement of living standard, have resulted in an increase in the amount of MSW generation throughout the world.
Tanmoy Karak; R. M. Bhagat; Pradip Bhattacharyya
Scenario building to understand complex systems
NSDL National Science Digital Library
"A scenario is a plausible, simplified, synthetic description of how the future of a system might develop, based on a coherent and internally consistent set of assumptions about key driving forces and relationships among key variables" (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005). Building scenarios that envision a (or a set of) possible future, promotes learning about what drivers are most important in driving change in a system.
Orr, Cailn H.
A proposal for a scenario classification framework
Abstract The Requirement Engineering, Information Systems and Software Engineering communities recently advocated,scenario-based approaches,which emphasise,the user\\/system interaction perspective in developing computer systems. Use of examples, scenes, narrative descriptions of contexts, mock-ups and prototypes, all these ideas can be called scenario based approaches, although exact definitions are not easy beyond,saying these approaches,emphasise,some description of the real world. Experience seems to tell us
C. Rolland; C. Ben Achour; C. Cauvet; J. Ralyt�; A. Sutcliffe; N. A. M. Maiden; M. Jarke; P. Haumer; K. Pohl; P. Heymans Dubois
Existence of subsonic plasma sheaths
The location of the plasma sheath edge, where quasineutrality is broken, is rigorously derived by using a kinetic description of the plasma. It is shown that sheaths can exist with arbitrarily small ion velocity at the sheath edge, thus violating the Bohm criterion, V{sub i}=c{sub s} at the sheath edge. Bohm's criterion is recovered in the case of large enough ion current through the wall, and it is found to be a reasonable approximation in floating potential conditions. However, in the case of a predominant electron current through the wall, Bohm's criterion is not able to describe the sheath-edge transition. The analytical results are supported by numerical simulations performed with a fully kinetic particle-in-cell code modeling a source-driven, weakly collisional plasma, bound between two absorbing walls.
Loizu, Joaquim; Ricci, Paolo; Theiler, Christian [Centre de Recherches en Physique des Plasmas-Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne, Association EURATOM-Confederation Suisse, CH-1015 Lausanne (Switzerland)
Water Resources Sustainability in Northwest Mexico: Analysis of Regional Infrastructure Plans under Historical and Climate Change Scenarios
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
The arid state of Sonora, Mexico, has embarked on a large water infrastructure project to provide additional water supply and improved sanitation to the growing capital of Hermosillo. The main component of the Sonora SI project involves an interbasin transfer from rural to urban water users that has generated conflicts over water among different social sectors. Through interactions with regional stakeholders from agricultural and water management agencies, we ascertained the need for a long-term assessment of the water resources of one of the system components, the Sonora River Basin (SRB). A semi-distributed, daily watershed model that includes current and proposed reservoir infrastructure was applied to the SRB. This simulation framework allowed us to explore alternative scenarios of water supply from the SRB to Hermosillo under historical (1980-2010) and future (2031-2040) periods that include the impact of climate change. We compared three precipitation forcing scenarios for the historical period: (1) a network of ground observations from Mexican water agencies; (2) gridded fields from the North America Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) at 12 km resolution; and (3) gridded fields from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model at 10 km resolution. These were compared to daily historical observations at two stream gauging stations and two reservoirs to generate confidence in the simulation tools. We then tested the impact of climate change through the use of the A2 emissions scenario and HadCM3 boundary forcing on the WRF simulations of a future period. Our analysis is focused on the combined impact of existing and proposed reservoir infrastructure at two new sites on the water supply management in the SRB under historical and future climate conditions. We also explore the impact of climate variability and change on the bimodal precipitation pattern from winter frontal storms and the summertime North American monsoon and its consequences on water management. Our results are presented in the form of flow duration, reliability and exceedence frequency curves that are commonly used in the water management agencies. Through this effort, we anticipate to build confidence among regional stakeholders in utilizing hydrological models in the development of water infrastructure plans and to foster conversations that address water sustainability issues.
Che, D.; Robles-Morua, A.; Mayer, A. S.; Vivoni, E. R.
Existing and Required Modeling Capabilities for Evaluating ATM Systems and Concepts
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
ATM systems throughout the world are entering a period of major transition and change. The combination of important technological developments and of the globalization of the air transportation industry has necessitated a reexamination of some of the fundamental premises of existing Air Traffic Management (ATM) concepts. New ATM concepts have to be examined, concepts that may place more emphasis on: strategic traffic management; planning and control; partial decentralization of decision-making; and added reliance on the aircraft to carry out strategic ATM plans, with ground controllers confined primarily to a monitoring and supervisory role. 'Free Flight' is a case in point. In order to study, evaluate and validate such new concepts, the ATM community will have to rely heavily on models and computer-based tools/utilities, covering a wide range of issues and metrics related to safety, capacity and efficiency. The state of the art in such modeling support is adequate in some respects, but clearly deficient in others. It is the objective of this study to assist in: (1) assessing the strengths and weaknesses of existing fast-time models and tools for the study of ATM systems and concepts and (2) identifying and prioritizing the requirements for the development of additional modeling capabilities in the near future. A three-stage process has been followed to this purpose: 1. Through the analysis of two case studies involving future ATM system scenarios, as well as through expert assessment, modeling capabilities and supporting tools needed for testing and validating future ATM systems and concepts were identified and described. 2. Existing fast-time ATM models and support tools were reviewed and assessed with regard to the degree to which they offer the capabilities identified under Step 1. 3 . The findings of 1 and 2 were combined to draw conclusions about (1) the best capabilities currently existing, (2) the types of concept testing and validation that can be carried out reliably with such existing capabilities and (3) the currently unavailable modeling capabilities that should receive high priority for near-term research and development. It should be emphasized that the study is concerned only with the class of 'fast time' analytical and simulation models. 'Real time' models, that typically involve humans-in-the-loop, comprise another extensive class which is not addressed in this report. However, the relationship between some of the fast-time models reviewed and a few well-known real-time models is identified in several parts of this report and the potential benefits from the combined use of these two classes of models-a very important subject-are discussed in chapters 4 and 7.
Odoni, Amedeo R.; Bowman, Jeremy; Delahaye, Daniel; Deyst, John J.; Feron, Eric; Hansman, R. John; Khan, Kashif; Kuchar, James K.; Pujet, Nicolas; Simpson, Robert W.
Development and analysis of SCR requirements tables for system scenarios
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
We describe the use of scenarios to develop and refine requirement tables for parts of the Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS). The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is developing EOSDIS as part of its Mission-To-Planet-Earth (MTPE) project to accept instrument/platform observation requests from end-user scientists, schedule and perform requested observations of the Earth from space, collect and process the observed data, and distribute data to scientists and archives. Current requirements for the system are managed with tools that allow developers to trace the relationships between requirements and other development artifacts, including other requirements. In addition, the user community (e.g., earth and atmospheric scientists), in conjunction with NASA, has generated scenarios describing the actions of EOSDIS subsystems in response to user requests and other system activities. As part of a research effort in verification and validation techniques, this paper describes our efforts to develop requirements tables from these scenarios for the EOSDIS Core System (ECS). The tables specify event-driven mode transitions based on techniques developed by the Naval Research Lab's (NRL) Software Cost Reduction (SCR) project. The SCR approach has proven effective in specifying requirements for large systems in an unambiguous, terse format that enhance identification of incomplete and inconsistent requirements. We describe development of SCR tables from user scenarios and identify the strengths and weaknesses of our approach in contrast to the requirements tracing approach. We also evaluate the capabilities of both approach to respond to the volatility of requirements in large, complex systems.
Callahan, John R.; Morrison, Jeffery L.
Future Water-Supply Scenarios, Cape May County, New Jersey, 2003-2050
Stewards of the water supply in New Jersey are interested in developing a plan to supply potable and non-potable water to residents and businesses of Cape May County until at least 2050. The ideal plan would meet projected demands and minimize adverse effects on currently used sources of potable, non-potable, and ecological water supplies. This report documents past and projected potable, non-potable, and ecological water-supply demands. Past and ongoing adverse effects to production and domestic wells caused by withdrawals include saltwater intrusion and water-level declines in the freshwater aquifers. Adverse effects on the ecological water supplies caused by groundwater withdrawals include premature drying of seasonal wetlands, delayed recovery of water levels in the water-table aquifer, and reduced streamflow. To predict the effects of future actions on the water supplies, three baseline and six future scenarios were created and simulated. Baseline Scenarios 1, 2, and 3 represent withdrawals using existing wells projected until 2050. Baseline Scenario 1 represents average 1998-2003 withdrawals, and Scenario 2 represents New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection (NJDEP) full allocation withdrawals. These withdrawals do not meet projected future water demands. Baseline Scenario 3 represents the estimated full build-out water demands. Results of simulations of the three baseline scenarios indicate that saltwater would intrude into the Cohansey aquifer as much as 7,100 feet (ft) to adversely affect production wells used by Lower Township and the Wildwoods, as well as some other near-shore domestic wells; water-level altitudes in the Atlantic City 800-foot sand would decline to -156 ft; base flow in streams would be depleted by 0 to 26 percent; and water levels in the water-table aquifer would decline as much as 0.7ft. [Specific water-level altitudes, land-surface altitudes, and present sea level when used in this report are referenced to the North American Vertical Datum of 1988 (NAVD 88).] Future scenarios 4 to 9 represent withdrawals and the effects on the water supply while using estimated full build-out water demands. In most townships, existing wells would be used for withdrawals in the simulation. However, in Lower and Middle Townships, the Wildwoods, and the Cape Mays, withdrawals from some wells would be terminated, reduced, or increased. Depending on the scenario, proposed production wells would be installed in locations far from the saltwater fronts, in deep freshwater aquifers, in deeper saltwater aquifers, or proposed injection wells would be installed to inject reused water to create a freshwater barrier to saltwater intrusion. Simulations indicate that future Scenarios 4 to 9 would reduce many of the adverse effects of Scenarios 1, 2, and 3. No future scenario will minimize all adverse impacts. In Scenario 4, Lower Township would drill two production wells in the Cohansey aquifer farther from the Delaware shoreline than existing wells and reduce withdrawals from wells near the shoreline. Wildwood Water Utility (WWU) would reduce withdrawals from existing wells in the Cohansey aquifer and increase withdrawals from wells in the Rio Grande water-bearing zone. Results of the simulation indicate that saltwater intrusion and ecological-water supply problems would be reduced but not as much as in Scenarios 5, 7, 8, and 9. In Scenario 5, the Wildwoods and Lower Township each would install a desalination plant and drill two wells to withdraw saltwater from the Atlantic City 800-foot sand. Saltwater intrusion problems would be reduced to the greatest extent with this scenario. Ecological water supplies remain constant or decline from 2003 baseline values. Water-level altitudes would decline to -193 ft in the Atlantic City 800-foot sand, the deepest potentiometric level for all scenarios. In Scenario 6, Lower Township would build a tertiary treatment system and drill three wells open to the Cohanse
Lacombe, Pierre J.; Carleton, Glen B.; Pope, Daryll A.; Rice, Donald E.
Soil water balance scenario studies using predicted soil hydraulic parameters
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Pedotransfer functions (PTFs) have become a topic drawing increasing interest within the field of soil and environmental research because they can provide important soil physical data at relatively low cost. Few studies, however, explore which contributions PTFs can make to land-use planning, in terms of examining the expected outcome of certain changes in soil and water management practices. This paper describes three scenario studies that show some aspects of how PTFs may help improve decision making about land management practices. We use an exploratory research approach using simulation modelling to explore the potential effect of alternative solutions in land management. We: (i) evaluate benefits and risks when irrigating a field, and the impact of soil heterogeneity; (ii) examine which changes can be expected (in terms of soil water balance and supply) if organic matter content is changed as a result of an alternative management system; (iii) evaluate the risk of leaching to deeper horizons in some soils of Hungary. Using this research approach, quantitative answers are provided to what if? type questions, allowing the distinction of trends and potential problems, which may contribute to the development of sustainable management systems.
Nemes, A.; W�sten, J. H. M.; Bouma, J.; V�rallyay, G.
Future scenarios of impacts to ecosystem services on California rangelands
The 18 million acres of rangelands in the Central Valley of California provide multiple benefits or �ecosystem services� to people�including wildlife habitat, water supply, open space, recreation, and cultural resources. Most of this land is privately owned and managed for livestock production. These rangelands are vulnerable to land-use conversion and climate change. To help resource managers assess the impacts of land-use change and climate change, U.S. Geological Survey scientists and their cooperators developed scenarios to quantify and map changes to three main rangeland ecosystem services�wildlife habitat, water supply, and carbon sequestration. Project results will help prioritize strategies to conserve these rangelands and the ecosystem services that they provide.
Byrd, Kristin; Alvarez, Pelayo; Flint, Lorraine; Flint, Alan
[Dutch government invests in existing biobanks].
Modern research, aimed at discovering factors that influence health and disease, requires large collections of data and samples. Collaboration between biobanks is therefore essential. The Dutch hub in the network of biobanks, the Biobanking and Biomolecular Resources Research Infrastructure (BBMRI-NL), is one of the major Dutch biobanking initiatives. It is sponsored by the Dutch government through the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO). BBMRI-NL sets up collaboration between approximately 150 existing clinical and population biobanks in the Netherlands, and forms the link with the European BBMRI initiative. BBMRI-NL aims at enrichment and harmonization of existing Dutch biobanks, at data management and analysis, and at laying the legal, social and ethical foundations, in order to improve access and inter-operability, and to render the information and organization up to date. Other major Dutch initiatives are String of Pearls and LifeLines. Together these will create the conditions needed for Dutch researchers to further develop their strong position in the international biobanking field. PMID:21029488
Brandsma, Margreet; van Ommen, Gert-Jan B; Wijmenga, Cisca; Kiemeney, Lambertus A
Minor Actinides Transmutation Scenario Studies in PWR with Innovative Fuels
With the innovative fuels (CORAIL, APA, MIX, MOX-UE) in current PWRs, it is theoretically possible to obtain different plutonium and minor actinides transmutation scenarios, in homogeneous mode, with a significant reduction of the waste radio-toxicity inventory and of the thermal output of the high level waste. Regarding each minor actinide element transmutation in PWRs, conclusions are : neptunium : a solution exists but the gain on the waste radio-toxicity inventory is not significant, americium : a solution exists but it is necessary to transmute americium with curium to obtain a significant gain, curium: Cm244 has a large impact on radiation and residual power in the fuel cycle; a solution remains to be found, maybe separating it and keeping it in interim storage for decay into Pu240 able to be transmuted in reactor.
Grouiller, J. P.; Boucher, L.; Golfier, H.; Dolci, F.; Vasile, A.; Youinou, G.
The implications of future building scenarios for long-term building energy research and development
This report presents a discussion of alternative future scenarios of the building environment to the year 2010 and assesses the implications these scenarios present for long-term building energy R and D. The scenarios and energy R and D implications derived from them are intended to serve as the basis from which a strategic plan can be developed for the management of R and D programs conducted by the Office of Buildings and Community Systems, US Department of Energy. The scenarios and analysis presented here have relevance not only for government R and D programs; on the contrary, it is hoped that the results of this effort will be of interest and useful to researchers in both private and public sector organizations that deal with building energy R and D. Making R and D decisions today based on an analysis that attempts to delineate the nexus of events 25 years in the future are clearly decisions made in the face of uncertainty. Yet, the effective management of R and D programs requires a future-directed understanding of markets, technological developments, and environmental factors, as well as their interactions. The analysis presented in this report is designed to serve that need. Although the probability of any particular scenario actually occurring is uncertain, the scenarios to be presented are sufficiently robust to set bounds within which to examine the interaction of forces that will shape the future building environment.
Flynn, W.T.
The real world and lunar base activation scenarios
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
A lunar base or a network of lunar bases may have highly desirable support functions in a national or international program to explore and settle Mars. In addition, He-3 exported from the Moon could be the basis for providing much of the energy needs of humankind in the twenty-first century. Both technical and managerial issues must be addressed when considering the establishment of a lunar base that can serve the needs of human civilization in space. Many of the technical issues become evident in the consideration of hypothetical scenarios for the activation of a network of lunar bases. Specific and realistic assumptions must be made about the conduct of various types of activities in addition to the general assumptions given above. These activities include landings, crew consumables, power production, crew selection, risk management, habitation, science station placement, base planning, science, agriculture, resource evaluation, readaptation, plant activation and test, storage module landings, resource transport module landings, integrated operations, maintenance, Base 2 activation, and management. The development of scenarios for the activation of a lunar base or network of bases will require close attention to the 'real world' of space operations. That world is defined by the natural environment, available technology, realistic objectives, and common sense.
Schmitt, Harrison H.
Mapping Agricultural Land-Use Change in the US: Biofuel scenarios from 2000-2030
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Uniform methods for land use assessment from local to continental scales are important for supporting national policies that focus on local management. In an effort to bridge local and national scales, we have been conducting land-use change research for the continental U.S. and doing so using 56-m resolution land use data. We have recently completed five scenarios of agricultural land-use change that represent a range of plausible biomass feedstock production. The scenarios include meeting targets of the Energy Independence and Security Act; alternative scenarios of only corn grain ethanol versus only cellulosic ethanol production; and alternative scenarios of no ethanol production with current agricultural program incentives versus no ethanol production with no monetary incentives for agricultural practices. These scenarios have implications for carbon cycling, greenhouse gas emissions, soil erosion, water quality, and other environmental variables. These scenarios also represent relevant policy issues that are currently being debated. We will present methods used to estimate future land-use change that include use of the USDA Cropland Data Layer, the POLYSYS agricultural economic model, and the Land Use Carbon Allocation model. We will present results that include spatially-explicit changes in crop rotations associated with the aforementioned biofuel scenarios. Results will consist of acreage changes per crop and the expected geographic location of these changes for years 2000-2030.
West, T. O.; Bandaru, V.; Hellwinckel, C. M.; Brandt, C. C.
The Spokane Tribe's multipathway subsistence exposure scenario and screening level RME.
Exposure scenarios are a critical part of risk assessment; however, representative scenarios are not generally available for tribal communities where a traditional subsistence lifestyle and diet are relevant and actively encouraged. This article presents portions of a multipathway exposure scenario developed by AESE, Inc. in conjunction with the Spokane Tribal Cultural Resources Program. The scenario serves as the basis for a screening-level reasonable maximum exposure (RME) developed for the Midnite Uranium Mine Superfund site. The process used in developing this scenario balances the need to characterize exposures without revealing proprietary information. The scenario and resulting RME reflect the subsistence use of original and existing natural resources by a hypothetical but representative family living on the reservation at or near the mine site. The representative family lives in a house in a sparsely populated conifer forest, tends a home garden, partakes in a high rate of subsistence activities (hunting, gathering, fishing), uses a sweat lodge daily, has a regular schedule of other cultural activities, and has members employed in outdoor monitoring of natural and cultural resources. The scenario includes two largely subsistence diets based on fish or game, both of which include native plants and home-grown produce. Data gaps and sources of uncertainty are identified. Additional information that risk assessors and agencies need to understand before doing any kind of risk assessment or public health assessment in tribal situations is presented. PMID:12088230
Harper, Barbara L; Flett, Brian; Harris, Stuart; Abeyta, Corn; Kirschner, Fred
Scenario development in China's electricity sector
The continuing growth of China's electricity sector will affect global environmental and economic sustainability due to its impacts on greenhouse gas emissions and global resource depletion. In 2005, the generation of electricity in China resulted in the emissions of 2290 million metric tonnes of carbon dioxide (approximately 53% of the nation's total) and required 779 million metric tonnes of coal (approximately 50% of China's total coal consumption). These figures are expected to increase with China's economic growth. In order to gauge the range in which fuel consumption and CO{sub 2} emissions could grow a scenario-based conceptual model has been developed by the authors (published in this journal). The application and analysis of this shows that under a business as usual (BAU) scenario, electricity generation could contribute upwards of 56% of China's energy related greenhouse gas emissions by 2020. Meanwhile, consumption of coal will also increase, growing to nearly 60% of total national demand by 2020. However, variations in a number of key drivers could produce significant deviation from the BAU scenario. With accelerated economic output, even with greater technological advances and greater potential to bring natural gas on stream, carbon dioxide emissions would rise 10% above the BAU. Alternatively, in a scenario where China's economy grows at a tempered pace, less investment would be available for advanced technologies, developing natural gas infrastructure, or nuclear energy. In this scenario, reduced economic growth and electricity demand would thereby be countered by reduced efficiency and a higher contribution of coal.
Steenhof, P.A.; Fulton, W. [Carleton University, Ottawa, ON (Canada). Dept. of Geography & Environmental Studies
Clinical challenges in the management of osteoporosis
While knowledge regarding the diagnosis and treatment of osteoporosis has expanded dramatically over the last few years, gaps in knowledge still exist with guidance lacking on the appropriate management of several common clinical scenarios. This article uses fictional clinical scenarios to help answer three challenging questions commonly encountered in clinical practice. The first clinical challenge is when to initiate drug therapy in a patient with low bone density. It is estimated that 34 million America have low bone density and are at a higher risk for low trauma fractures. Limitations of using bone mineral density alone for drug therapy decisions, absolute risk assessment and evidence for the cost-effectiveness of therapy in this population are presented. The second clinical challenge is the prevention and treatment of vitamin D deficiency. Appropriate definitions for vitamin D insufficiency and deficiency, the populations at risk for low vitamin, potential consequences of low vitamin D, and how to manage a patient with low vitamin D are reviewed. The third clinical challenge is how to manage a patient receiving drug therapy for osteoporosis who has been deemed a potential treatment failure. How to define treatment failure, common causes of treatment failure, and the approach to the management of a patient who is not responding to appropriate osteoporosis therapy are discussed.
Vondracek, Sheryl F; Minne, Paul; McDermott, Michael T
Development of a database-driven system for simulating water temperature in the lower Yakima River main stem, Washington, for various climate scenarios
A model for simulating daily maximum and mean water temperatures was developed by linking two existing models: one developed by the U.S. Geological Survey and one developed by the Bureau of Reclamation. The study area included the lower Yakima River main stem between the Roza Dam and West Richland, Washington. To automate execution of the labor-intensive models, a database-driven model automation program was developed to decrease operation costs, to reduce user error, and to provide the capability to perform simulations quickly for multiple management and climate change scenarios. Microsoft� SQL Server 2008 R2 Integration Services packages were developed to (1) integrate climate, flow, and stream geometry data from diverse sources (such as weather stations, a hydrologic model, and field measurements) into a single relational database; (2) programmatically generate heavily formatted model input files; (3) iteratively run water temperature simulations; (4) process simulation results for export to other models; and (5) create a database-driven infrastructure that facilitated experimentation with a variety of scenarios, node permutations, weather data, and hydrologic conditions while minimizing costs of running the model with various model configurations. As a proof-of-concept exercise, water temperatures were simulated for a "Current Conditions" scenario, where local weather data from 1980 through 2005 were used as input, and for "Plus 1" and "Plus 2" climate warming scenarios, where the average annual air temperatures used in the Current Conditions scenario were increased by 1degree Celsius (�C) and by 2�C, respectively. Average monthly mean daily water temperatures simulated for the Current Conditions scenario were compared to measured values at the Bureau of Reclamation Hydromet gage at Kiona, Washington, for 2002-05. Differences ranged between 1.9� and 1.1�C for February, March, May, and June, and were less than 0.8�C for the remaining months of the year. The difference between current conditions and measured monthly values for the two warmest months (July and August) were 0.5�C and 0.2�C, respectively. The model predicted that water temperature generally becomes less sensitive to air temperature increases as the distance from the mouth of the river decreases. As a consequence, the difference between climate warming scenarios also decreased. The pattern of decreasing sensitivity is most pronounced from August to October. Interactive graphing tools were developed to explore the relative sensitivity of average monthly and mean daily water temperature to increases in air temperature for model output locations along the lower Yakima River main stem.
Voss, Frank; Maule, Alec
Two Scenarios for Quantum Multifractality Breakdown
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
We expose two scenarios for the breakdown of quantum multifractality under the effect of perturbations. In the first scenario, multifractality survives below a certain scale of the quantum fluctuations. In the other one, the fluctuations of the wave functions are changed at every scale and each multifractal dimension smoothly goes to the ergodic value. We use as generic examples a one-dimensional dynamical system and the three-dimensional Anderson model at the metal-insulator transition. Based on our results, we conjecture that the sensitivity of quantum multifractality to perturbation is universal in the sense that it follows one of these two scenarios depending on the perturbation. We also discuss the experimental implications.
Dubertrand, R.; Garc�a-Mata, I.; Georgeot, B.; Giraud, O.; Lemari�, G.; Martin, J.
China's sustainable energy future: Scenarios of energy and carbonemissions (Summary)
China has ambitious goals for economic development, and mustfind ways to power the achievement of those goals that are bothenvironmentally and socially sustainable. Integration into the globaleconomy presents opportunities for technological improvement and accessto energy resources. China also has options for innovative policies andmeasures that could significantly alter the way energy is acquired andused. These opportunities andoptions, along with long-term social,demographic, and economic trends, will shape China s future energysystem, and consequently its contribution to emissions of greenhousegases, particularly carbon dioxide (CO2). In this study, entitled China sSustainable Energy Future: Scenarios of Energy and Carbon Emissions, theEnergy Research Institute (ERI), an independent analytic organizationunder China's Na tional Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), soughtto explore in detail how China could achieve the goals of the TenthFive-Year Plan and its longer term aims through a sustainable developmentstrategy. China's ability to forge a sustainable energy path has globalconsequences. China's annual emissions of greenhouse gases comprisenearly half of those from developing countries, and 12 percent of globalemissions. Most of China's greenhouse gas emissions are in the form ofCO2, 87 percent of which came from energy use in 2000. In that year,China's carbon emissions from energy use and cement production were 760million metric tons (Mt-C), second only to the 1,500 Mt-C emitted by theUS (CDIAC, 2003). As China's energy consumption continues to increase,greenhouse gas emissions are expected to inevitably increase into thefuture. However, the rate at which energy consumption and emissions willincrease can vary significantly depending on whether sustainabledevelopment is recognized as an important policy goal. If the ChineseGovernment chooses to adopt measures to enhance energy efficiency andimprove the overall structure of energy supply, it is possible thatfuture economic growth may be supported by a relatively lower increase inenergy consumption. Over the past 20 years, energy intensity in China hasbeen reduced partly through technological and structural changes; currentannual emissions may be as much as 600 Mt-C lower than they would havebeen without intensity improvements. China must take into account itsunique circumstances in considering how to achieve a sustainabledevelopment path. This study considers the feasibility of such anachievement, while remaining open to exploring avenues of sustainabledevelopment that may be very different from existing models. Threescenarios were prepared to assist the Chinese Government to explore theissues, options and uncertainties that it confronts in shaping asustainable development path compatible with China's uniquecircumstances. The Promoting Sustainability scenario offers a systematicand complete interpretation of the social and economic goals proposed inthe Tenth Five-Year Plan. The possibility that environmentalsustainability would receive low priority is covered in the OrdinaryEffort scenario. Aggressive pursuit of sustainable development measuresalong with rapid economic expansion is featured in the Green Growthscenario. The scenarios differ in the degree to which a common set ofenergy supply and efficiency policies are implemented. In cons ultationwith technology and policy experts domestically and abroad, ERI developedstrategic scenarios and quantified them using an energy accounting model.The scenarios consider, in unprecedented detail, changes in energy demandstructure and technology, as well as energy supply, from 1998 to 2020.The scenarios in this study are an important step in estimating realistictargets for energy efficiency and energy supply development that are inline with a sustainable development strategy. The scenarios also helpanalyze and explore ways in which China might slow growth in greenhousegas emissions. The key results have important policy implications:Depending on how demand for energy services is met, China could quadrupleits gross domesti
Zhou, Dadi; Levine, Mark; Dai, Yande; Yu, Cong; Guo, Yuan; Sinton, Jonathan E.; Lewis, Joanna I.; Zhu, Yuezhong
An alternative scenario for the formation of specialized protein nano-domains (cluster phases) in biomembranes
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
We discuss a realistic scenario, accounting for the existence of sub-micrometric protein domains in cell membranes. At the biological level, such membrane domains have been shown to be specialized, in order to perform a determined biological task, in the sense that they gather one or a few protein species out of the hundreds of different ones that a cell membrane may contain. By analyzing the balance between mixing entropy and protein affinities, we propose that such protein sorting in distinct domains can be explained without appealing to pre-existing lipidic micro-phase separations, as in the lipid raft scenario. We show that the proposed scenario is compatible with known physical interactions between membrane proteins, even if thousands of different species coexist.
Destainville, N.
Coarsening Scenarios in Unstable Crystal Growth
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Crystal surfaces may undergo thermodynamical as well as kinetic, out-of-equilibrium instabilities. We consider the case of mound and pyramid formation, a common phenomenon in crystal growth and a long-standing problem in the field of pattern formation and coarsening dynamics. We are finally able to attack the problem analytically and get rigorous results. Three dynamical scenarios are possible: perpetual coarsening, interrupted coarsening, and no coarsening. In the perpetual coarsening scenario, mound size increases in time as L�tn, where the coarsening exponent is n=1/3 when faceting occurs, otherwise n=1/4.
Biagi, Sofia; Misbah, Chaouqi; Politi, Paolo
Investigating biodiversity trajectories using scenarios--lessons from two contrasting agricultural landscapes.
Agriculture is the major land use at a global scale. In addition to food production, multifunctionality of landscapes, including values and ecosystem services like biodiversity, recreation and culture, is now focus for management. This study explores how a scenario approach, involving different stakeholders, may help to improve landscape management for biodiversity conservation. Local farmers and executives at the County Administrative Board were invited to discuss rural development and conditions for farmland biodiversity in two Swedish landscapes. The potential biodiversity for three future land use scenarios for the two landscapes was discussed: nature conservation, outdoor recreation and energy production, and compared with current and historical landscapes in each region. Analyses of habitat areas, connectedness and landscape diversity suggested that the energy and recreation scenarios had a negative impact on farmland biodiversity, whereas the nature conservation scenario, the current and historically reconstructed landscapes had a higher potential for biodiversity. The farmers appreciated the nature conservation scenario, but also the energy production scenario and they highlighted the need of increased subsidies for management of biodiversity. The farmers in the high production area were less interested in nature quality per se. The executives had similar opinions as the farmers, but disagreed on the advantages with energy production, as this would be in conflict with the high biodiversity and recreational values. The local physical and socio-economical conditions differ between landscapes and potentially shaped the stakeholders emotional attachment to the local environment, their opinions and decisions on how to manage the land. We stress the importance of incorporating local knowledge, visions and regional prerequisites for different land uses in conservation, since site and landscape specific planning for biodiversity together with a flexible subsidy system are necessary to reach the conservation goals within EU. PMID:19853368
Lindborg, Regina; Stenseke, Marie; Cousins, Sara A O; Bengtsson, Jan; Berg, Ake; Gustafsson, Tomas; Sj�din, N Erik; Eriksson, Ove
Energy development scenarios and water demands and supplies: an overview
On the basis of average mean annual flows, ample water exists in the upper Missouri River basin for energy development. The lack of storage and diversion works upstream as well as State compacts preclude the ready use of this surplus water. These surplus flows are impounded in mainstream reservoirs on the Missouri downstream from coal mining areas but could be transported back at some expense for use in Wyoming and North Dakota. There are limited water supplies available for the development of coal and oil shale industries in the upper Colorado River Basin. Fortunately oil shale mining, retorting and reclamation do not require as much water as coal conversion; in-situ oil shale retorting would seem to be particularly desirable in the light of reduced water consumption. Existing patterns of energy production, transport, and conversion suggest that more of the coal to be mined out West is apt to be transmitted to existing load centers rather than converted to electricity or gas in the water-short West. Scenarios of development of the West 's fossil fuels may be overestimating the need for water since they have assumed that major conversion industries would develop in the West. Transport of coal to existing users will require all means of coal movement including unit trains, barges, and coal slurry pipelines. The latter is considered more desirable than the development of conversion industries in the West when overall water consumption is considered. (Woodard-USGS)
Kilpatrick, F. A.
Breaking new ground: challenging existing asthma guidelines
Background While we have international guidelines and various national guidelines for asthma diagnosis and management, asthma remains poorly controlled in many children and adults. In this paper we review the limitations of current asthma guidelines and describe important issues and remaining questions regarding asthma guidelines for use, particularly in primary care. Discussion Clinical practice guidelines based on evidence from randomized controlled trials are considered the most rigorous and accurate. Current evidence-based guidelines are written predominantly from the perspective of the patient with a clear-cut asthma diagnosis, however, and tend not to consider the heterogeneity of asthma or to accommodate individual patient variations in response to treatment or their needs, differences in practice settings, or local differences in availability and cost of therapies. The results of randomized controlled trials, which are designed to establish efficacy of treatment under ideal conditions, may not apply to 'real-world' clinical practice, where patients are unselected, monitoring is less frequent, and effectiveness � the benefit of treatment in routine clinical practice � is the most relevant outcome. Moreover, most guidelines see asthma in isolation rather than considering other factors that may impact on asthma and response to asthma therapy, particularly age, allergic rhinitis, cigarette smoking, adherence, and genetic factors. When these links are recognized, guidelines rarely provide practical recommendations for treatment in these scenarios. Finally, there is some evidence that general practitioners are not convinced of the applicability of asthma guidelines to their practice settings, especially when those writing the guidelines principally work in specialist practice. Conclusion Developing country-specific guidelines or, ideally, local guidelines could provide more practical solutions for asthma care and could account for regional factors that influence patient choice and adherence to therapy. Pragmatic clinical trials and well-designed observational trials are needed in addition to randomized controlled trials to assess real-world effectiveness of therapies, and such evidence needs also to be considered by guideline writers. Finally, practical tools to facilitate the diagnosis and assessment of asthma and factors responsible for poor control, such as associated allergic rhinitis, limited adherence, and smoking behavior, are needed to supplement treatment information provided in clinical practice guidelines for asthma.
Scenarios of long-term river runoff changes within Russian large river basins
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
The approach for long-term scenario projection of river runoff changes for Russian large river basins in XXI century includes method for scenario estimations for range of probable climatic changes, based on generalization of results of the calculations executed on ensemble of global climatic models and physical-statistical downscaling of their results are developed for mountain regions; hydrological model; method of alternative scenario estimations for water management complex transformation and GIS technologies. The suggested methodology allows to develop long-term scenario projection for: (1) changes of river runoff in large river basins as a result of climate changes and (2) transformations of the water management complex caused by social-economic changes, occurring in the country and their influence on river runoff. As one of the bases of methodology is used model of monthly water balance of RAS Institute of Geography (Georgiadi, Milyukova, 2000, 2002, 2006, 2009). As the climatic scenario the range of probable climatic changes which is estimated by results of calculations for deviations of climatic elements from their recent values which have been carried out on ensemble of global climatic models based on the two most contrasting scenario globally averaged air temperature changes is used. As ensemble of climatic scenarios results of the calculations executed on 10 global climatic models, included in the program of last experiment 20C3M-20th Century Climate in Coupled Models (Meehl et al., 2007), is used. The method for long-term scenario projection for transformation of water management complex characteristics and water consumption was developed. The method includes several blocks (Koronkevich, 1990, Koronkevich et al., 2009): growth of the population and development of an economy; different ways of use and protection of waters, in view of different technologies of prevention and decreasing of pollution of water resources. Development of scenarios assumes pre-projection and actually projection stages. On pre-projection stage the algorithm of calculation is developed; the choice of operational units for the projection is carried out; the modern condition of water resources and its connection with use of water in examined river basins is considered; tendencies in development of an economy and use of water resources during last decades are revealed. On actually projection stages are analyzed available forecasts concerning an expected population and indexes of development for the economy basic branches, and also specific water consumption, taking into account radical methods on prevention of water resources quality deterioration. Results of development of integrated scenarios are submitted by the examples for the largest river basins of Russian plain and Siberia (Volga, Don and Lena river basins).
Georgiadi, A. G.; Koronkevich, N. I.; Milyukova, I. P.; Kislov, A. V.; Barabanova, E. A.
Generating interesting scenarios from system descriptions
A formal system specification is often written declaratively, in terms of the properties of the system components. This makes the system description modular and concise. However, this does not make the procedural aspects of the system easily understandable. Here arises the need for automatically generating interesting behavior patterns, specifically, scenarios.This paper is a preliminary report of our research in generating
Kaizhi Yue
Competency-Based Teacher Education: A Scenario.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
This fictitious scenario embodies all the characteristics and dimensions for a fully developed competency-based teacher education program envisioned by the authors. A single program and its implications for students, faculty, and the institution are presented. Specific areas of the program covered 1) a fundamental description of the competency�
Weber, Wilford A.; Cooper, James M.
A Scenario for the Future of Museums
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
More than any other staff member, museum educators' knowledge and experience working with visitors make them uniquely qualified to take on leadership roles as museums transform themselves into lifelong learning organizations. The article encourages museum educators to initiate discussions about change by offering a fictional scenario of future�
Cunningham, Mary Kay
Metronidazole-induced encephalopathy: an uncommon scenario.
Metronidazole can produce neurological complications although it is not a common scenario. We present a case where a patient developed features of encephalopathy following prolonged metronidazole intake. Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) brain showed abnormal signal intensity involving both dentate nuclei of cerebellum and splenium of corpus callosum. The diagnosis of metronidazole toxicity was made by the MRI findings and supported clinically. PMID:24816962
Chakrabarti, Subrata; Pan, Koushik
Advanced ST Plasma Scenario Simulations for NSTX.
National Technical Information Service (NTIS)
Integrated scenario simulations are done for NSTX that address four primary milestones for developing advanced ST configurations: high beta and high beta(subN) inductive discharges to study all aspects of ST physics in the high beta regime; non-inductivel...
C. E. Kessel E. J. Synakowski D. A. Gates R. W. Harvey S. M. Kaye
Scenario Analysis of Mobile GI Services
Technological advances in three basic fields mobile devices, communication, services architecture have helped the vertiginous evolution of mobile GI services. Mobile computing scenario, which take into account the relative position of users, service components, and available resources, encourages the development and deployment of innovation services. As for Mobile GI Services application, the driving factors of system design and development were
Yuanchen Li; Anliang Ning; Dongmei Huang; Weiqun Liu
Futures literacy: A hybrid strategic scenario method
What stories do we tell about the future? This article develops a topology of storytelling about the future, which is used to develop a definition of �futures literacy�. It goes on to outline a hybrid strategic scenario method for acquiring the capacities of futures literacy.
Riel Miller
School Improvement Strategies That Work: Some Scenarios.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
School improvement strategies are presented in four scenarios: (1) high outcomes from enforced, stabilized use; (2) moderate to high outcomes from high mastery and low settledness; (3) moderate to low outcomes from program blunting or downsizing; and (4) failing, low levels of outcome from indifference and discouragement. (MD)
Huberman, A. Michael
Scenario simulation of water security in China.
Limited water resources, increasing demand, low use efficiency, and serious pollution result in severe water resource difficult in China. The evaluation of addressing water problems and the search for effective countermeasures that ensure sustainable water use are key to China's sustainable development. The "compound water security" consists of food security, life security, environmental security, and economic security. By establishing a conceptual model, the water security of China has been simulated in terms of four scenarios called BAU (the business-as-usual scenario), TEC (the technology and economics scenario), IVL (the institution, values, and lifestyles scenario) and TSD(toward sustainable development) in this paper. The results indicated that water crises, especially water shortages, are being experienced now and will continue to do so for a relatively long time in China and that it is possible to reach a basic balance between supply and demand of water and grain under the TSD developing pattern by a series of approaches including technological innovation, policy adjustments, and behaviour inducement. PMID:15559808
Ouyang, Zhi-Yun; Zhao, Tong-Qian; Wang, Ru-Song; Leif, S�derlund; Zhang, Qiao-Xian
High risk low cost Mars missions scenarios
Manned mars missions have been the subject of considerable study during the last ten years. Most of the early SEI (Space Exploration Initiative) studies have concentrated on minimizing the IMLEO (Initial Mass in Low Earth Orbit), but most studies generally considered missions where the entire spacecraft would go into orbit about Mars before the landing. Other scenarios utilized a direct
Brice N. Cassenti; Robert W. Bass
Interface Object AIO state Time axis Atomic Operation System Stimuli, Response, or System Message name name Figure 2 : Use case description and use case specification [Regnell et al., 1995] Scenarios which are designed systems and are then run as simulations to present a future vision of how the system will behave or how the users might interact with the
C. Rolland; C. Ben Achour; C. Cauvet; J. Ralyt�; A. Sutcliffe; N. A. M. Maiden; M. Jarke; P. Haumer; K. Pohl; E. Dubois; P. Heymans
Quantitative evaluation of lake eutrophication responses under alternative water diversion scenarios: a water quality modeling based statistical analysis approach.
China is confronting the challenge of accelerated lake eutrophication, where Lake Dianchi is considered as the most serious one. Eutrophication control for Lake Dianchi began in the mid-1980s. However, decision makers have been puzzled by the lack of visible water quality response to past efforts given the tremendous investment. Therefore, decision makers desperately need a scientifically sound way to quantitatively evaluate the response of lake water quality to proposed management measures and engineering works. We used a water quality modeling based scenario analysis approach to quantitatively evaluate the eutrophication responses of Lake Dianchi to an under-construction water diversion project. The primary analytic framework was built on a three-dimensional hydrodynamic, nutrient fate and transport, as well as algae dynamics model, which has previously been calibrated and validated using historical data. We designed 16 scenarios to analyze the water quality effects of three driving forces, including watershed nutrient loading, variations in diverted inflow water, and lake water level. A two-step statistical analysis consisting of an orthogonal test analysis and linear regression was then conducted to distinguish the contributions of various driving forces to lake water quality. The analysis results show that (a) the different ways of managing the diversion projects would result in different water quality response in Lake Dianchi, though the differences do not appear to be significant; (b) the maximum reduction in annual average and peak Chl-a concentration from the various ways of diversion project operation are respectively 11% and 5%; (c) a combined 66% watershed load reduction and water diversion can eliminate the lake hypoxia volume percentage from the existing 6.82% to 3.00%; and (d) the water diversion will decrease the occurrence of algal blooms, and the effect of algae reduction can be enhanced if diverted water are seasonally allocated such that wet season has more flows. PMID:24029694
Liu, Yong; Wang, Yilin; Sheng, Hu; Dong, Feifei; Zou, Rui; Zhao, Lei; Guo, Huaicheng; Zhu, Xiang; He, Bin
Scenarios Based on Shared Socioeconomic Pathway Assumptions
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
A set of new scenarios is being developed by the international scientific community as part of a larger program that was articulated in Moss, et al. (2009), published in Nature. A long series of meetings including climate researchers drawn from the climate modeling, impacts, adaptation and vulnerability (IAV) and integrated assessment modeling (IAM) communities have led to the development of a set of five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), which define the state of human and natural societies at a macro scale over the course of the 21st century without regard to climate mitigation or change. SSPs were designed to explore a range of possible futures consistent with greater or lesser challenges to mitigation and challenges to adaptation. They include a narrative storyline and a set of quantified measures--e.g. demographic and economic profiles--that define the high-level state of society as it evolves over the 21st century under the assumption of no significant climate feedback. SSPs can be used to develop quantitative scenarios of human Earth systems using IAMs. IAMs produce information about greenhouse gas emissions, energy systems, the economy, agriculture and land use. Each set of SSPs will have a different human Earth system realization for each IAM. Five groups from the IAM community have begun to explore the implications of SSP assumptions for emissions, energy, economy, agriculture and land use. We report the quantitative results of initial experiments from those groups. A major goal of the Moss, et al. strategy was to enable the use of CMIP5 climate model ensemble products for IAV research. CMIP5 climate scenarios used four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, defined in terms of radiative forcing in the year 2100: 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 Wm-2. There is no reason to believe that the SSPs will generate year 2100 levels of radiative forcing that correspond to the four RCP levels, though it is important that at least one SSP produce a scenario with at least 8.5 Wm-2. To address this problem each SSP scenario can be treated as a reference scenario, to which emissions mitigation policies can be applied to create a set of RCP replications. These RCP replications have the underlying SSP socio-economic assumptions in addition to policy assumptions and radiative forcing levels consistent with the CMIP5 products. We report quantitative results of initial experiments from the five participating groups.
Edmonds, J.
Safety Sufficiency for NextGen: Assessment of Selected Existing Safety Methods, Tools, Processes, and Regulations
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
NextGen is a complex socio-technical system and, in many ways, it is expected to be more complex than the current system. It is vital to assess the safety impact of the NextGen elements (technologies, systems, and procedures) in a rigorous and systematic way and to ensure that they do not compromise safety. In this study, the NextGen elements in the form of Operational Improvements (OIs), Enablers, Research Activities, Development Activities, and Policy Issues were identified. The overall hazard situation in NextGen was outlined; a high-level hazard analysis was conducted with respect to multiple elements in a representative NextGen OI known as OI-0349 (Automation Support for Separation Management); and the hazards resulting from the highly dynamic complexity involved in an OI-0349 scenario were illustrated. A selected but representative set of the existing safety methods, tools, processes, and regulations was then reviewed and analyzed regarding whether they are sufficient to assess safety in the elements of that OI and ensure that safety will not be compromised and whether they might incur intolerably high costs.
Xu, Xidong; Ulrey, Mike L.; Brown, John A.; Mast, James; Lapis, Mary B.
FOUND: A Technique for Teaching Management Concepts.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Describes a technique used to teach theories of management: family simulation. Students created and described a family, its environment, and resources and used this scenario for practical applications of management concepts, such as decision making and decision trees. (SK)
Linck, Sandra Taliaferro
High resolution scenarios of land-use and land-cover change for the conterminous United States
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
We describe a series of high resolution maps of past and projected changes in land use and land cover (LULC) for the conterminous United States for the period 1992 to 2100. Four scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) were used to create annual maps showing spatially explicit change in 15 LULC classes at a spatial resolution of 250 meters. A modular land-use modeling approach was utilized with distinct demand and spatial allocation components. To quantify demand for future LULC change (i.e. the quantity of changes in land use and land cover classes), a scenario downscaling model was developed to extend global scenarios from the IPCC to hierarchically nested ecoregions of the U.S. The Forecasting Scenarios (FORE-SCE) land use model was then employed to allocate scenario demand on the landscape. Both models were parameterized at the ecoregion scale and relied extensively on land use histories and expert knowledge. Results reveal large differences across IPCC-SRES scenarios. Scenarios prioritizing economic development over environmental protection result in the highest rates of LULC change, particularly in regions with extensive forest management, large urban areas, and/or large investments in agricultural land. Scenarios where environmental protection is emphasized result in slower rates of change and less intensity in regional land use patterns.
Sleeter, B. M.; Sohl, T. L.; Bouchard, M. A.; Reker, R. R.; Sayler, K.; Sleeter, R.; Soulard, C. E.; Wilson, T. S.
Using 'endowed props' in scenario-based design
We have developed a form of scenario-based design that aims to increase stakeholders' sense of 'immersion' in the happenings and situations depicted in the scenarios. In our approach, scenarios are 'acted out' by actors and\\/or candidate users during participatory design sessions, rather than being 'walked through' by designers and users. In form, our scenarios are bare and malleable and load
Steve Howard; Jennie Carroll; John Murphy; Jane Peck
Modeling climate change impacts on groundwater resources using transient stochastic climatic scenarios
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Several studies have highlighted the potential negative impact of climate change on groundwater reserves, but additional work is required to help water managers plan for future changes. In particular, existing studies provide projections for a stationary climate representative of the end of the century, although information is demanded for the near future. Such time-slice experiments fail to account for the transient nature of climatic changes over the century. Moreover, uncertainty linked to natural climate variability is not explicitly considered in previous studies. In this study we substantially improve upon the state-of-the-art by using a sophisticated transient weather generator in combination with an integrated surface-subsurface hydrological model (Geer basin, Belgium) developed with the finite element modeling software "HydroGeoSphere." This version of the weather generator enables the stochastic generation of large numbers of equiprobable climatic time series, representing transient climate change, and used to assess impacts in a probabilistic way. For the Geer basin, 30 equiprobable climate change scenarios from 2010 to 2085 have been generated for each of six different regional climate models (RCMs). Results show that although the 95% confidence intervals calculated around projected groundwater levels remain large, the climate change signal becomes stronger than that of natural climate variability by 2085. Additionally, the weather generator's ability to simulate transient climate change enabled the assessment of the likely time scale and associated uncertainty of a specific impact, providing managers with additional information when planning further investment. This methodology constitutes a real improvement in the field of groundwater projections under climate change conditions.
Goderniaux, Pascal; Brouy�Re, Serge; Blenkinsop, Stephen; Burton, Aidan; Fowler, Hayley J.; Orban, Philippe; Dassargues, Alain
SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario--Executive Summary and Introduction: Chapter A in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario
The Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) tsunami scenario depicts a hypothetical but plausible tsunami created by an earthquake offshore from the Alaska Peninsula and its impacts on the California coast. The tsunami scenario is a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the California Geological Survey, the California Governor�s Office of Emergency Services (Cal OES), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), other Federal, State, County, and local agencies, private companies, and academic and other institutions. This document presents evidence for past tsunamis, the scientific basis for the source, likely inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental and ecological impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management and evacuation challenges, and policy implications for California associated with this hypothetical tsunami. We also discuss ongoing mitigation efforts by the State of California and new communication products. The intended users are those who need to make mitigation decisions before future tsunamis, and those who will need to make rapid decisions during tsunami events. The results of the tsunami scenario will help managers understand the context and consequences of their decisions and how they may improve preparedness and response. An evaluation component will assess the effectiveness of the scenario process for target stakeholders in a separate report to improve similar efforts in the future.
Ross, Stephanie L.; Jones, Lucile M.; Miller, Kevin; Porter, Keith A.; Wein, Anne; Wilson, Rick I.; Bahng, Bohyun; Barberopoulou, Aggeliki; Borrero, Jose C.; Brosnan, Deborah M.; Bwarie, John T.; Geist, Eric L.; Johnson, Laurie A.; Kirby, Stephen H.; Knight, William R.; Long, Kate; Lynett, Patrick; Mortensen, Carl E.; Nicolsky, Dmitry J.; Perry, Suzanne C.; Plumlee, Geoffrey S.; Real, Charles R.; Ryan, Kenneth; Suleimani, Elena; Thio, Hong Kie; Titov, Vasily V.; Whitmore, Paul M.; Wood, Nathan J.
Advanced aviation concepts via simulation: techniques to enhance performance of an existing aviation simulation
Facing a need to run large scenarios on aviation models more quickly than the one to two days currently required, the MITRE Corporation undertook an effort to reduce the execution time of one such simulation. Time and cost constraints prohibited a major rewrite of the almost one million existing lines of code, so only solutions requiring minimal changes to the
David Carnes; Frederick Wieland
The problem of the initial conditions in flavoured leptogenesis and the tauon N-dominated scenario
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
We discuss the conditions to realise a scenario of 'strong thermal leptogenesis,' where the final asymmetry is fully independent of the initial conditions, taking into account both heavy and light neutrino flavour effects. In particular, the contribution to the final asymmetry from an initial pre-existing asymmetry has to be negligible. We show that in the case of a hierarchical right-handed (RH) neutrino mass spectrum, the only possible way is an N-dominated leptogenesis scenario with a lightest RH neutrino mass M?10 GeV and with a next-to-lightest RH neutrino mass 10 GeV?M?10 GeV. This scenario necessarily requires the presence of a heaviest third RH neutrino specie. Moreover, we show that the final asymmetry has to be dominantly produced in the tauon flavour while the electron and the muon asymmetries have to be efficiently washed-out by the lightest RH neutrino inverse processes. Intriguingly, such seemingly special conditions for successful strong thermal leptogenesis are naturally fulfilled within SO(10)-inspired models. Besides the tauon N-dominated scenario, successful strong thermal leptogenesis is also achieved in scenarios with quasi-degenerate RH neutrino masses. We also comment on the supersymmetric case. We also derive an expression for the final asymmetry produced from leptogenesis taking fully into account heavy neutrino flavour effects in the specific case M?10 GeV (heavy flavoured scenario), a result that can be extended to any other mass pattern.
Bertuzzo, Enrico; Di Bari, Pasquale; Marzola, Luca
Paper waste - Recycling, incineration or landfilling? A review of existing life cycle assessments
A review of existing life cycle assessments (LCAs) on paper and cardboard waste has been undertaken. The objectives of the review were threefold. Firstly, to see whether a consistent message comes out of published LCA literature on optimum disposal or recycling solutions for this waste type. Such message has implications for current policy formulation on material recycling and disposal in the EU. Secondly, to identify key methodological issues of paper waste management LCAs, and enlighten the influence of such issues on the conclusions of the LCA studies. Thirdly, in light of the analysis made, to discuss whether it is at all valid to use the LCA methodology in its current development state to guide policy decisions on paper waste. A total of nine LCA studies containing altogether 73 scenarios were selected from a thorough, international literature search. The selected studies are LCAs including comparisons of different management options for waste paper. Despite claims of inconsistency, the LCAs reviewed illustrate the environmental benefits in recycling over incineration or landfill options, for paper and cardboard waste. This broad consensus was found despite differences in geographic location and definitions of the paper recycling/disposal systems studied. A systematic exploration of the LCA studies showed, however, important methodological pitfalls and sources of error, mainly concerning differences in the definition of the system boundaries. Fifteen key assumptions were identified that cover the three paper cycle system areas: raw materials and forestry, paper production, and disposal/recovery. It was found that the outcome of the individual LCA studies largely depended on the choices made in some of these assumptions, most specifically the ones concerning energy use and generation, and forestry.
Villanueva, A. [European Topic Centre on Resource and Waste Management, Hojbro Plads 4, DK-1200 Copenhagen K (Denmark)], E-mail: email@example.com; Wenzel, H. [Department of Manufacturing Engineering and Management, Technical University of Denmark, Building 424, DK-2800 Kgs. Lyngby (Denmark)
Revisiting light neutralino scenarios in the MSSM
We revisit the case of a light neutralino lightest supersymmetric particle in the framework of the minimal supersymmetric standard model. We consider a model with 11 free parameters. We show that all scenarios where the annihilation of light neutralinos rely mainly on the exchange of a light pseudoscalar are excluded by direct detection searches and by Fermi measurements of the {gamma}-flux from dwarf spheroidal galaxies. On the other hand, we find scenarios with light sleptons that satisfy all collider and astroparticle physics constraints. In this case, the lower limit on the lightest supersymmetric particle mass is 12.6 GeV. We discuss briefly how the parameter space of the model could be further probed at the LHC.
Albornoz Vasquez, Daniel; Belanger, Genevieve [LAPTH, U. de Savoie, CNRS, BP 110, 74941 Annecy-Le-Vieux (France); Boehm, Celine [LAPTH, U. de Savoie, CNRS, BP 110, 74941 Annecy-Le-Vieux (France); IPPP, Ogden centre, Durham University (United Kingdom)
Entropic force scenarios and eternal inflation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
We examine various entropic inflation scenarios, under the light of eternality. After describing the inflation realization and the normal condition for inflation to last at the background level, we investigate the conditions for eternal inflation with the effect of thermal fluctuations produced from standard radiation and from the holographic screen. Furthermore, we incorporate stochastic quantum fluctuations through a phenomenological, Langevin analysis, studying whether they can affect the inflation eternality. In one-holographic-screen scenarios eternality can be easily obtained, while in double-screen considerations inflation is eternal only in the high-energy regime. Thus, from the cosmological point of view, one should take these into account before he can consider entropic gravity as a candidate for the description of nature. However, from the string theory point of view, inflation eternality may form the background for the �landscape� of string or M theory vacua, leading to new perspectives in entropy gravity.
Qiu, Taotao; Saridakis, Emmanuel N.
Tethered Capturing Scenarios in Low Earth Orbit
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
To-date, a few actuation methods have been presented which enable zero differential velocity rendezvous for the tip of a space tether and a payload. Some researchers in the field have also investigated the futuristic, ambitious, tethered capturing scenarios for interplanetary transfers. This paper investigates some new and beneficial tethered space capturing scenarios, which can be implemented for near-term space mass/momentum transfer missions in Low Earth Orbit (LEO), by using currently available technology and resources. Zero differential velocity capture could be achieved by initiating a swinging motion in the tether before rendezvous. The lack of significant damping forces in space, means the swinging motion continues after capture, which is extremely undesirable for the retrieval phase and poses a serious danger for the platform as the payload approaches to it. Although exploiting space propulsion on the capturing device at the tip of the tether could stop the swinging motion of the tether directly after the capture, another alternative presented in this paper is to use the space propulsion to boost the payload to the same orbit as the platform. This has the benefit of dramatically reducing fuel consumption and accomplishment of the retrieval phase with low risk of impact to the platform. The numerical methods utilized in the dynamic simulation have been used to evaluate the efficiency of the tethered capturing scenarios mentioned above in comparison to the direct space capture and ideal Hohmann orbit transfer. The payload mass addition to the tip of the elastic tether at capture causes a longitudinal vibration mode (Bobbing mode) in the tether. Since the structural damping in the tether is negligible, a precise length rate/tension control could be used to dampen this mode in the first semi-period, demolishing any subsequent tension peak. This is a new mathematical non-linear control scheme, which is described for tension mitigation and damping of Bobbing mode vibration in the tether directly after capture. Another beneficial capturing scenario is also studied in which the space debris could be captured by a capturing bag at the tip of the swinging tether and would be released in the backward phase of the swing. This results in reduction of the debris' momentum and guidance of the debris directly to the earth's atmosphere via a ballistic trajectory. Small to medium size, non- controllable debris flying in LEO orbits could be burned up in the Earth's atmosphere while part of their momentum could boost the ISS in this post-capture scenario. Two different counter recoiling control schemes are introduced for this scenario, which can prevent the elastic tether from recoiling back toward the platform after releasing its payload. These controllers work based on changing the length of the tether and controlling the tension and do not involve any thrusters as the actuators. The research presented in this paper can significantly assist in development and implementation of feasible tethered mass/momentum transfer space missions in near term, by introducing new and beneficial tethered space capturing scenarios using currently available technology and resources such as the International Space Station (ISS) as platform. The paper is focused on development of new concepts for post-capture and post-release tether control schemes required for these scenarios.
Keramati Nigjeh, Behzad; Trivailo, Pavel; Blanksby, Chris
Rolling in the modulated reheating scenario
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
In the modulated reheating scenario, the field that drives inflation has a spatially varying decay rate, and the resulting inhomogeneous reheating process generates adiabatic perturbations. We examine the statistical properties of the density perturbations generated in this scenario. Unlike earlier analyses, we include the dynamics of the field that determines the inflaton decay rate. We show that the dynamics of this modulus field can significantly alter the amplitude of the power spectrum and the bispectrum, even if the modulus field has a simple potential and its effective mass is smaller than the Hubble rate. In some cases, the evolution of the modulus amplifies the non-Gaussianity of the perturbations to levels that are excluded by recent observations of the cosmic microwave background. Therefore, a proper treatment of the modulus dynamics is required to accurately calculate the statistical properties of the perturbations generated by modulated reheating.
Kobayashi, Naoya; Kobayashi, Takeshi; Erickcek, Adrienne L.
A Hybrid Scenario for Planet Formation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
The standard scenario for the formation of planets has two critical problems: (1) Turbulence in the disk stirs up dust particles and prevents the dust sedimentation onto the disk mid-plane that is required for the fragmentation of the dusty layer prior to planetesimal formation. (2) The gravitational interaction of (proto)planets and the disk tends to result in their migration onto the central star within a short timescale. These problems have stimulated extensive theoretical work but still remain to be solved. In contrast, the recent increase of our understanding of the star formation process enables us to depict the long-term evolution of protoplanetary disks: the resultant gravitational fragmentation and the formation of gaseous planetary-mass objects in the disks. We critically review recent progress in our understanding of these processes and propose a possible hybrid scenario for the formation of planetary-mass objects in variety.
Inutsuka, Shu-Ichiro
TIBER engineering test reactor (ETR) startup scenarios
A time-dependent Tokamak Systems Code (TTSC) has been developed and used to examine various inductively driven startup scenarios for the TIBER reactor. Radially averaged particle and energy balance equations are solved. In addition, time varying currents in the PF and OH coils are determined from MHD equilibrium and volt-seconds considerations. Less than 20 MW of auxiliary power deposited in the electrons is required to obtain steady-state operations. For this scenario, less than 10% of the total volt-seconds capability is consumed during startup and the currents in the PF and OH coils do not appear to exceed stress limits. For every volt-second saved during startup, the burn time can be extended 14 seconds. 4 refs., 6 figs., 3 tabs.
Blackfield, D.T.; Perkins, L.J.
Assessment of a French scenario with the INPRO methodology
This paper presents the French contribution to the Joint Study of the IAEA International Project on Innovative Nuclear Reactors and Fuel Cycles (INPRO). It concerns the application of the INPRO methodology to a French scenario, on the transition from present LWRs to EPRs in a first phase and to 4. generation fast reactors in a second phase during the 21. century. The scenario also considers the renewal of the present fuel cycle facilities by the third and the fourth generation ones. Present practice of plutonium recycling in PWR is replaced by the middle of the century by a global recycling of actinides, uranium, plutonium and minor actinides in fast reactors. The status and the evolution of the INPRO criteria and the corresponding indicators during the studied period are analyzed for each of the six considered areas: economics, safety, environment, waste management, proliferation resistance and infrastructure. Improvements on economic and safety are expected for both the EPR and the 4. generation systems having these improvements among their basic goals. The use of fast reactors and global recycling of actinides leads to a significant improvement on environment indicators and in particular on the natural resources utilization. The envisaged waste management policy results in significant reductions on mass, thermal loads and radiotoxicity of the final waste which only contains fission products. The use of fuels that do not relay on enriched uranium and separated plutonium increases the proliferation resistance characteristics of the future fuel cycle. The paper summarizes also some recommendations on the data, codes and methods used to support the continuous improvement of the INPRO methodology and help future assessors. (authors)
Vasile, A.; Fiorini, G.L. [CEA Cadarache, 13108 Saint-Paul-lez-Durance Cedex (France); Cazalet, J.; Linet, F.L.; Moulin, V. [CEA Saclay CEA Saclay 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette (France); Greneche, D. [AREVA - Tour AREVA - F - 92084 Paris La Defense Cedex (France)
Carbon footprint of four different wastewater treatment scenarios
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Since the era of industrialization, concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs) have tremendously increased in the atmosphere, as a result of the extensive use of fossil fuels, deforestation, improper waste management, transport, and other economic activities (Boer, 2008).This has led to a great accumulation of greenhouse gases, forming a blanket around the Earth which contributes in the so-called "Global Warming". Over the last decades, wastewater treatment has developed strongly and has become a very important asset in mitigating the impact of domestic and industrial effluents on the environment. There are many different forms of wastewater treatment, and one of the most effective treatment technology in terms COD, N and P removal, activated sludge is often criticized for its high energy use. Some other treatment concepts have a more "green" image, but it is not clear whether this image is justified based on their greenhouse gas emission. This study focuses on the estimation of GHG emissions of four different wastewater treatment configurations, both conventional and innovative systems namely: (1) Harnaschpolder, (2) Sneek, (3) EIER-Ouaga and (4) Siddhipur. This analysis is based on COD mass balance, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2006 guidelines for estimating CO2 and CH4, and literature review. Furthermore, the energy requirements for each of the systems were estimated based on energy survey. The study showed that an estimated daily average of 87 g of CO2 equivalent, ranging between 38 to 192 g, was derived to be the per capita CO2 emission for the four different wastewater treatment scenarios. Despite the fact that no electrical energy is used in the treatment process, the GHG emission from EIER Ouaga anaerobic pond systems is found to be the highest compared to the three other scenarios analysed. It was estimated 80% higher than the most favourable scenario (Sneek). Moreover, the results indicate that the GHGs emitted from these WWTPs are 97% lower compared to other anthropogenic sources like the public transport sector. The innovative sanitation scenarios were found to cause less environmental burden in terms of energy and GHGs. Nevertheless, to ensure a positive impact of these treatment systems, an optimum biogas reuse (for the production of electricity and heat), the source separation of human excreta (to disburden the wastewater treatment processes) should be introduced to reduce their GHG emissions. Keywords: Carbon dioxide, greenhouse gases, methane, wastewater treatment technologies.
Diafarou, Moumouni; Mariska, Ronteltap, ,, Dr.; Damir, Brdjanovic, ,, Prof.
Electroweak Gauge-Higgs Unification Scenario
In the gauge-Higgs unification scenario 4D Higgs fields are unified with gauge fields in higher dimensions. The electroweak model is constructed in the Randall-Sundrum warped space. The electroweak symmetry is dynamically broken by the Hosotani mechanism due to the top quark contribution. The Higgs mass is predicted to be around 50 GeV with the vanishing ZZH and WWH couplings so that the LEP2 bound for the Higgs mass is evaded.
Hosotani, Yutaka [Department of Physics, Osaka University, Toyonaka, Osaka 560-0043 (Japan)
A tilted cold dark matter cosmological scenario
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
A new cosmological scenario based on CDM but with a power spectrum index of about 0.7-0.8 is suggested. This model is predicted by various inflationary models with no fine tuning. This tilted CDM model, if normalized to COBE, alleviates many problems of the standard CDM model related to both small-scale and large-scale power. A physical bias of galaxies over dark matter of about two is required to fit spatial observations.
Cen, Renyue; Gnedin, Nickolay Y.; Kofman, Lev A.; Ostriker, Jeremiah P.
Scenarios for a clean energy future
This paper summarizes the results of a study�Scenarios for a Clean Energy Future�that assess how energy-efficient and clean energy technologies can address key energy and environmental challenges facing the US. A particular focus of this study is the energy, environmental, and economic impacts of different public policies and programs. Hundreds of technologies and approximately 50 policies are analyzed. The study
Marilyn A. Brown; Mark D. Levine; Walter Short; Jonathan G. Koomey
Cortical desmoid and the four clinical scenarios
We reviewed four patients diagnosed with a cortical desmoid lesion at the distal posterior medial femur. Each case reflects\\u000a a clinical scenario that can be present. Cortical desmoid is a benign, self-limited entity which occasionally can exhibit\\u000a aggressive radiologic features. Here, we present the specific imaging features in association with patients history and clinical\\u000a findings facilitating establishment of correct diagnosis.
Vasilelos A. Kontogeorgakos; Theodore Xenakis; Dionysios Papachristou; Anastasios Korompilias; Anastasios Kanellopoulos; Alexander Beris; Brian Brigman
Quintom scenario with mixed kinetic terms
We examine an extension of the quintom scenario of dark energy, in which a canonical scalar field and a phantom field are coupled through a kinetic interaction. We perform a phase-space analysis and show that the kinetic coupling gives rise to novel cosmological behavior. In particular, we obtain both quintessence-like and phantomlike late-time solutions, as well as solutions that cross the phantom divide during the evolution of the Universe.
Saridakis, Emmanuel N. [College of Mathematics and Physics, Chongqing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Chongqing, 400065 (China); Weller, Joel M. [Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Sheffield, Hounsfield Road, Sheffield S3 7RH (United Kingdom)
1906 Earthquake Scenario: San Francisco Bay Area
NSDL National Science Digital Library
This map shows estimated Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) values for the City of San Francisco and the eight counties of the Greater Bay Area, in a scenario based on the 1906 earthquake along the San Andreas fault. The 430 kilometers of fault rupture included several segments during one massive earthquake. Links are supplied to more detailed maps of the cities of Rohnert Park, Pittsburg, Antioch, San Francisco, and Palo Alto.
Human Aspects in Clinical Ambient Intelligence Scenarios
Ambient Intelligence (AmI) is a vision of an environment with ubiquitous distributed devices embedded in everyday objects that are interconnected and seamlessly deliver applications and services. Based on concepts of ubiquitous computing, ubiquitous communication and intelligent interfaces, AmI puts the user in the center of future technological development. In this paper we consider human aspects of AmI in clinical scenarios.
Christian Henke; Vladimir Stantchev
Long-term land use future scenarios for the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory
In order to facilitate decision regarding environmental restoration activities at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL), the United States Department of Energy, Idaho Operations Office (DOE-ID) conducted analyses to project reasonable future land use scenarios at the INEL for the next 100 years. The methodology for generating these scenarios included: review of existing DOE plans, policy statements, and mission statements pertaining to the INEL; review of surrounding land use characteristics and county developments policies; solicitation of input from local, county, state and federal planners, policy specialists, environmental professionals, and elected officials; and review of environmental and development constraints at the INEL site that could influence future land use.
Optimal management of groundwater pumping of the cache critical groundwater area, Arkansas
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
A simulation model for part of the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer in the Cache area, Arkansas, was coupled with an optimization model to determine maximum optimal pumping from irrigation wells in the areas where cones of depression exist. Groundwater Vistas and Groundwater Management software were used for simulation and optimization model, respectively. The Cache area was designated as a critical groundwater area in 2009 due to the decline in its water level to below 50 % of the saturated thickness of the aquifer. The optimization model was formulated with the objective of maximizing water production from wells subjected to minimum head constraints and drawdown constraints, while limiting groundwater withdrawals to a maximum of 100 and 200 % of the rate pumped in 2010. Four different sets of managed wells were tested in Scenarios 1, 3 (938 wells) and Scenarios 2, 4 (3870 wells). The optimal pumping rates from groundwater in the case of minimum head constraints were 0.59 and 2.43 Mm3/d for Scenarios 1 and 2, respectively. In the case of maximum pumping constraints of the managed wells specified as 200 % of the pumping rate of 2010, the optimal pumping rates from groundwater in the case of minimum head constraints were 0.88 and 3.28 Mm3/d for Scenarios 3 and 4, respectively. The average optimal pumping increased by 6-49 % in the case of the maximum pumping constraint specified as 200 % of the pumping rate of the year 2010.
Rashid, Haveen; Al-Shukri, Haydar; Mahdi, Hanan
CZT imaging detectors for ProtoEXIST
We describe the detector development for a balloon-borne wide-field hard X-ray (20-600 keV) telescope, ProtoEXIST. ProtoEXIST is a pathfinder for both technology and science of the proposed implementation of the Black Hole Finder Probe, Energetic X-ray Imaging Survey telescope (EXIST). The principal technology challenge is the development of large area, close-tiled modules of imaging CZT detectors (1000 cm2 for ProtoEXIST1).
J. Hong; J. E. Grindlay; N. Chammas; A. Copete; R. G. Baker; S. D. Barthelmy; N. Gehrels; W. R. Cook III; J. A. Burnham; F. A. Harrison; J. Collins; W. W. Craig
Artificial intelligence costs, benefits, and risks for selected spacecraft ground system automation scenarios
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
In response to a number of high-level strategy studies in the early 1980s, expert systems and artificial intelligence (AI/ES) efforts for spacecraft ground systems have proliferated in the past several years primarily as individual small to medium scale applications. It is useful to stop and assess the impact of this technology in view of lessons learned to date, and hopefully, to determine if the overall strategies of some of the earlier studies both are being followed and still seem relevant. To achieve that end four idealized ground system automation scenarios and their attendant AI architecture are postulated and benefits, risks, and lessons learned are examined and compared. These architectures encompass: (1) no AI (baseline); (2) standalone expert systems; (3) standardized, reusable knowledge base management systems (KBMS); and (4) a futuristic unattended automation scenario. The resulting artificial intelligence lessons learned, benefits, and risks for spacecraft ground system automation scenarios are described.
Truszkowski, Walter F.; Silverman, Barry G.; Kahn, Martha; Hexmoor, Henry
Scenario analysis of Agro-Environment measure adoption for soil erosion protection in Sicilian vineyard (Italy)
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Most of the challenges in designing land use policies that address sustainability issues are inherent to the concept of Agro-Environmental Measures (AEM). Researchers, farmers and mainly policy makers need to evaluate the impact of new and existing policies for soil protection. In Europe, farmers commit themselves, for a minimum period of at least five years, to adopt environmentally-friendly farming techniques that undergone legal obligations. On the other hand, farmers receive payments that provide compensation for additional costs and income foregone resulting from applying those environmentally friendly farming practices in line with the stipulations of agri-environment contracts. In this context we prospect scenarios on soil erosion variations in a detailed case study after the application of Agro-Environmental Measures (AEM). The study area is located in the South part of Sicily. In a district area of 11,588 ha, 35.5 % is devoted to vineyard cultivation, 32.2 % is arable land and only 11.1 % cultivated to olive grow. 2416 ha are urbanized areas and other less important crops. A paired-site approach was chosen to study the difference in soil organic carbon stocks after AEM adoption, following criteria based on Conteh (1999) also applied in several research studies. For the purpose of comparison, the members of a paired site were selected to be similar with respect to the type of soil, slope, elevation, and drainage, but not to AEM. The comparisons were made between adjacent patches of land with different AEM, and a known history of land use and management. 100 paired sites (two adjacent plots) were chosen and three soil samples (0-30 cm depth) were collected in each plot (600 soil samples). The rainfall erosivity (R) factor (Mj mm ha-1 hour-1 year-1) was estimated with the formula specifically proposed for Sicily by Ferro and coauthors in 1999. The soil erodibility factor (K, in tons hour MJ-1 mm-1) was mapped on the base of soil texture and soil organic carbon content of the topsoil (averaged on the first 50 cm of soil depth) with the table published by Stone and Hilborn (2012). The slope-length and slope gradient (LS) factors were derived from the Digital Terrain Model of Sicily (20 x 20 m) using the formulas proposed by Wischmeier and Smith (1978), and revised by McCool et al. (1987 and 1989). The C factor were applied according previous studies in the same area and ranged among 0.22 and 0.12 and less than 0.10 using permanent species able to reduce erosion rate up to 90% (Gristina et al., 2006; Novara et al. 2011). The scenario analysis of the soil erosion reduction after the adoption of AEM could be used by policy makers as a base for the evaluation of the Payment for Ecosystem Service (PES) to be paid to farmers through the future Agro-Ecosystem measures incentives. Gristina, L., Bagarello, V., Ferro, V., Poma, I., 2006. Cover and management factor for Sicilian vineyard systems. In: 14th International Soil conservation Organization Conference�Water Management and Soil Conservation in Semi-arid Environments, 14-19 May 2006, Marrakech, Marocco (ISCO2006), pp. 1-4. A Novara, L Gristina, SS Saladino, A Santoro, A Cerda 2011 Soil erosion assessment on tillage and alternative soil managements in a Sicilian vineyard. Soil and Tillage Research 117, 140-147
Novara, Agata; Gristina, Luciano; Fantappi�, Maria; Costantini, Edoardo
On adiabatic perturbations in the ekpyrotic scenario
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
In a recent paper, Khoury and Steinhardt proposed a way to generate adiabatic cosmological perturbations with a nearly flat spectrum in a contracting Universe. To produce these perturbations they used a regime in which the equation of state exponentially rapidly changed during a short time interval. Leaving aside the singularity problem and the difficult question about the possibility to transmit these perturbations from a contracting Universe to the expanding phase, we will show that the methods used in Khoury are inapplicable for the description of the cosmological evolution and of the process of generation of perturbations in this scenario.
Linde, A.; Mukhanov, V.; Vikman, A.
Rao and Wald Tests for Nonhomogeneous Scenarios
In this paper, we focus on the design of adaptive receivers for nonhomogeneous scenarios. More precisely, at the design stage we assume a mismatch between the covariance matrix of the noise in the cell under test and that of secondary data. Under the above assumption, we show that the Wald test is the adaptive matched filter, while the Rao test coincides with the receiver obtained by using the Rao test design criterion in homogeneous environment, hence providing a theoretical explanation of the enhanced selectivity of this receiver.
Hao, Chengpeng; Orlando, Danilo; Hou, Chaohuan
Emergent physics: Fermi-point scenario.
The Fermi-point scenario of emergent gravity has the following consequences: gravity emerges together with fermionic and bosonic matter; emergent fermionic matter consists of massless Weyl fermions; emergent bosonic matter consists of gauge fields; Lorentz symmetry persists well above the Planck energy; space-time is naturally four dimensional; the Universe is naturally flat; the cosmological constant is naturally small or zero; the underlying physics is based on discrete symmetries; 'quantum gravity' cannot be obtained by quantization of Einstein equations; and there is no contradiction between quantum mechanics and gravity, etc. PMID:18534944
Volovik, Grigory
10 CFR 63.322 - Human intrusion scenario.
Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR
...2009-01-01 2009-01-01 false Human intrusion scenario. 63.322 Section 63.322...Health and Environmental Standards Human Intrusion Standard § 63.322 Human intrusion scenario. For the purposes of the...
10 CFR 63.322 - Human intrusion scenario.
Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR
...2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Human intrusion scenario. 63.322 Section 63.322...Health and Environmental Standards Human Intrusion Standard § 63.322 Human intrusion scenario. For the purposes of the...
Developing tailored climate change scenarios for hydrological impact assessments
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Diagnosis of covariation of projections for evapotranspiration and rainfall.Statistically downscaled climate scenarios using frequency and intensity quantile perturbations.Construction of surrogate indicative scenarios to replicate range of extreme impacts.
Ntegeka, Victor; Baguis, Pierre; Roulin, Emmanuel; Willems, Patrick
Using Formative Scenario Analysis approach for landslide risk analysis in a relatively scarce data environment: preliminary results
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
It is increasingly important to provide to stakeholders tools that will enable them to better understand what is the state of the environment in which they live and manage and to help them to make decisions that aim to minimize the consequences of hydro-meteorological hazards. Very often, however, quantitative studies, especially for large areas, are difficult to perform. This is due to the fact that unfortunately isn't often possible to have the numerous data required to perform the analysis. In addition it has been proven that in scenario analysis, often deterministic approaches are not able to detect some features of the system revealing unexpected behaviors, and resulting in underestimation or omission of some impact factors. Here are presented some preliminary results obtained applying Formative Scenario Analysis that can be considered a possible solution for landslide risk analysis in cases where the data needed even if existent are not available. This method is an expert based approach that integrates intuitions and qualitative evaluations of impact factors with the quantitative analysis of relations between these factors: a group of experts with different but pertinent expertise, determine (by a rating procedure) quantitative relations between these factors, then through mathematical operations the scenarios describing a certain state of the system are obtained. The approach is applied to Buzau County (Romania), an area belonging to the Curvature Romanian Carpathians and Subcarpathians, a region strongly affected by environmental hazards. The region has been previously involved in numerous episodes of severe hydro-meteorological events that caused considerable damages (1975, 2005, 2006). In this application we are referring only to one type of landslides that can be described as shallow and medium-seated with a (mainly) translational movement that can go from slide to flow. The material involved can be either soil, debris or a mixture of both, in Romanian literature these typical movements has been described as alunecare curgatoare. The Formative Scenario Analysis approach will be applied for each component of risk (H,V,and A) and then the acquired states will be combined in order to obtain for obtaining a series of alternatives scenarios for risk. The approach is structured in two main sections corresponding to a level of influence of conditioning factors and a response. In this latter are obtained the results of the formative scenario approach trained with the conditioning factors of the first level. These factors are divided in two subsets representing 2 levels of influences, k=1 comprises the global factors while in k=2 one finds local factors. In order to include uncertainty estimation within the analysis the method of knowledge representation type-1 fuzzy sets is introduced and hence decisions made by experts on certain events are expressed in terms of triangular fuzzy numbers.
Zumpano, Veronica; Balteanu, Dan; Mazzorana, Bruno; Micu, Mihai
Operating Water Resources Systems Under Climate Change Scenarios
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Population and industrial growth has resulted in intense demands on the quantity and quality of water resources worldwide. Moreover, climate change/variability is making a growing percentage of the earth's population vulnerable to extreme weather events (drought and flood). The 1996 Saguenay flood, 1997 Red River flood, the 1998 ice storm, and recent droughts in prairies are few examples of extreme weather events in Canada. Rising economic prosperity, growth in urban population, aging infrastructure, and a changing climate are increasing the vulnerability of Canadians to even more serious impacts. This growing threat can seriously undermine the social and economic viability of the country. Our ability to understand the impacts of climate change/variability on water quantity, quality, and its distribution in time and space can prepare us for sustainable management of this precious resource. The sustainability of water resources, over the medium to long-term, is critically dependent on the ability to manage (plan and operate) water resource systems under a more variable and perhaps warmer future climate. Studying the impacts of climate change/variability on water resources is complex and challenging. It is further complicated by the fact that impacts vary with time and are different at different locations. This study deals with the impacts of climate change/variability on water resources in a portion of the Red River Basin in Canada, both in terms of change in quantity and spatial-temporal distribution. A System Dynamics model is developed to describe the operation of the Shellmouth Reservoir located on the Red River in Canada. The climate data from Canadian Global Coupled Model, CGCM1 is used. The spatial system dynamics approach, based on distributed parameter control theory, is used to model the impacts of climate change/variability on water resources in time and space. A decision support system is developed to help reservoir operators and decision makers in sustainable management of water resources. The decision support system helps in analyzing the impacts of different reservoir operation scenarios, under changing climate conditions, by exploring multiple- what-if- scenarios. Canadian study areas and data sets are used for the research. However, the proposed approach provides a general framework that can be used in other parts of the world.
Ahmad, S.
ARkStorm: A West Coast Storm Scenario
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
The United Stated Geological Survey (USGS) Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) is preparing a new emergency-preparedness scenario, called ARkStorm, to address massive U.S. West Coast storms analogous to those that devastated California in 1861-62. Storms of this magnitude are projected to become more frequent and intense as a result of climate change. The MHDP has assembled experts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), USGS, Scripps Institute of Oceanography, the State of California, California Geological Survey, the University of Colorado, the National Center for Atmospheric Research, and other organizations to design the large, but scientifically plausible, hypothetical scenario storm that would provide emergency responders, resource managers, and the public a realistic assessment of what is historically possible. The ARkStorm patterns the 1861 - 1862 historical events but uses modern modeling methods and data from large storms in 1969 and 1986. The ARkStorm draws heat and moisture from the tropical Pacific, forming Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) that grow in size, gain speed, and with a ferocity equal to hurricanes, slam into the U.S. West Coast for several weeks. Using sophisticated weather models and expert analysis, precipitation, snowlines, wind, and pressure data the modelers will characterize the resulting floods, landslides, and coastal erosion and inundation. These hazards will then be translated into the infrastructural, environmental, agricultural, social, and economic impacts. Consideration will be given to catastrophic disruptions to water supplies resulting from impacts on groundwater pumping, seawater intrusion, water supply degradation, and land subsidence. Possible climate-change forces that could exacerbate the problems will also be evaluated. In contrast to the recent U.S. East and Gulf Coast hurricanes, only recently have scientific and technological advances documented the ferocity and strength of possible future West Coast storms. A task of ARkStorm is to elevate the visibility of the very real threats to human life, property, and ecosystems posed by extreme storms on the U.S. West Coast. This enhanced visibility will help increase the preparedness of the emergency management community and the public to such storms. ARkStorm is scheduled to be completed by September 2010 and will be the basis of a state-wide emergency response drill, Golden Guardian, led by the California Emergency Management Agency in 2011.
Cox, D. A.; Jones, L. M.; Ralph, F. M.; Dettinger, M. D.; Porter, K.; Perry, S. C.; Barnard, P. L.; Hoover, D.; Wills, C. J.; Stock, J. D.; Croyle, W.; Ferris, J. C.; Plumlee, G. S.; Alpers, C. N.; Miller, M.; Wein, A.; Rose, A.; Done, J.; Topping, K.
Environmental and climate security: improving scenario methodologies for science and risk assessment
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Governments and popular discussions have increasingly referred to concepts of �climate security�, often with reference to IPCC data. Development of effective methodologies to translate complex, scientific data into risk assessments has lagged, resulting in overly simplistic political assumptions of potential impacts. Climate security scenarios have been developed for use by security and military agencies, but effective engagement by scientific communities requires an improved framework. Effective use of data requires improvement both of climate projections, and the mapping of cascading impacts across interlinked, complex systems. In this research we propose a process for systematic generation of subsets of scenarios (of arbitrary size) from a given set of variables with possible interlinkages. The variables could include climatic changes as well as other global changes of concerns in a security context. In coping with possible challenges associated with the nexus of climate change and security - where deep structural uncertainty and possible irreversible changes are of primary interest - it is important to explore the outer limits of the relevant uncertainties. Therefore the proposed process includes a novel method that will help scenario developers in generating scenario sets where the scenarios are in a quantifiable sense maximally different and therefore best �span� the whole set of scenarios. When downscaled onto a regional level, this process can provide guidance to potentially significant and abrupt geophysical changes, where high uncertainty has often prevented communication of risks. Potential physical changes can then be used as starting points for mapping cascading effects across networks, including topological analysis to identify critically vulnerable nodes and fragile systems, the existence of positive or negative feedback loops, and possible intervention points. Advanced knowledge of both potential geo-physical shifts and related non-linear threshold responses, can help in communicating potential stability concerns from a political/social/economic/security perspective. This research illustrates scenario improvements that approach critical climate uncertainties from a risk assessment perspective, without losing traceability of related scientific data.
Briggs, C. M.; Carlsen, H.
Optimization of environmental management strategies through a dynamic stochastic possibilistic multiobjective program.
Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from municipal solid waste (MSW) management facilities have become a serious environmental issue. In MSW management, not only economic objectives but also environmental objectives should be considered simultaneously. In this study, a dynamic stochastic possibilistic multiobjective programming (DSPMP) model is developed for supporting MSW management and associated GHG emission control. The DSPMP model improves upon the existing waste management optimization methods through incorporation of fuzzy possibilistic programming and chance-constrained programming into a general mixed-integer multiobjective linear programming (MOP) framework where various uncertainties expressed as fuzzy possibility distributions and probability distributions can be effectively reflected. Two conflicting objectives are integrally considered, including minimization of total system cost and minimization of total GHG emissions from waste management facilities. Three planning scenarios are analyzed and compared, representing different preferences of the decision makers for economic development and environmental-impact (i.e. GHG-emission) issues in integrated MSW management. Optimal decision schemes under three scenarios and different p(i) levels (representing the probability that the constraints would be violated) are generated for planning waste flow allocation and facility capacity expansions as well as GHG emission control. The results indicate that economic and environmental tradeoffs can be effectively reflected through the proposed DSPMP model. The generated decision variables can help the decision makers justify and/or adjust their waste management strategies based on their implicit knowledge and preferences. PMID:23313898
Zhang, Xiaodong; Huang, Gordon
Long-term management of a hydroelectric multireservoir system under uncertainty using the progressive hedging algorithm
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Among the numerous methods proposed over the past decades for solving reservoir management problems, only a few are applicable on high-dimensional reservoir systems (HDRSs). The progressive hedging algorithm (PHA) was rarely used for managing reservoir systems, but this method is a promising alternative to conventionally used methods for managing HDRSs (e.g., the stochastic dual dynamic programming). The PHA is especially well suited when a new stochastic optimization model must be built upon an existing deterministic optimization model (DOM). In such case, scenario subproblems can be resolved using an existing DOM with minor modifications. In previous studies, the PHA was rarely used and only tested on problems covering short-range planning horizons (2 months with six time periods) where a small number of nonanticipativity constraints (NACs) must be satisfied. Large reservoirs often need to be managed over a much longer planning horizon (1-5 years) containing many tens of time periods. In such case, convergence becomes much more difficult to achieve because of the larger number of NACs to be satisfied. Finding a nonanticipative solution becomes particularly difficult when the input scenarios differ drastically. In this study, we demonstrate the applicability of the PHA for managing HDRSs over long-term (more than a year) horizons in highly uncertain decision environments. We apply the PHA on Hydro-Qu�bec's reservoir system over a 92 week (period) horizon. We analyze the performance of the PHA for different penalty parameter values. Deterministic solutions are compared to stochastic solutions.
Carpentier, P.-L.; Gendreau, M.; Bastin, F.
Bubble wall velocity in the minimal supersymmetric light stop scenario
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
We build on existing calculations of the wall velocity of the expanding bubbles of the broken symmetry phase in a first-order electroweak phase transition within the light stop scenario (LSS) of the MSSM. We carry out the analysis using the 2-loop thermal potential for values of the Higgs mass consistent with present experimental bounds. Our approach relies on describing the interaction between the bubble and the hot plasma by a single friction parameter, which we fix by matching to an existing 1-loop computation and extrapolate to our regime of interest. For a sufficiently strong phase transition (in which washout of the newly created baryon asymmetry is prevented) we obtain values of the wall velocity, vw?0.05, far below the speed of sound in the medium, and not very much deviating from the previous 1-loop calculation. We find that the phase transition is about 10% stronger than suggested by simply evaluating the thermal potential at the critical temperature. We also comment on the relevance of our results to extended models, such as the NMSSM.
Huber, Stephan J.; Sopena, Miguel
From Modelling to Execution of Enterprise Integration Scenarios: The GENIUS Tool
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
One of the predominant problems IT companies are facing today is Enterprise Application Integration (EAI). Most of the infrastructures built to tackle integration issues are proprietary because no standards exist for how to model, develop, and actually execute integration scenarios. EAI patterns gain importance for non-technical business users to ease and harmonize the development of EAI scenarios. These patterns describe recurring EAI challenges and propose possible solutions in an abstract way. Therefore, one can use those patterns to describe enterprise architectures in a technology neutral manner. However, patterns are documentation only used by developers and systems architects to decide how to implement an integration scenario manually. Thus, patterns are not theoretical thought to stand for artefacts that will immediately be executed. This paper presents a tool supporting a method how EAI patterns can be used to generate executable artefacts for various target platforms automatically using a model-driven development approach, hence turning patterns into something executable. Therefore, we introduce a continuous tool chain beginning at the design phase and ending in executing an integration solution in a completely automatically manner. For evaluation purposes we introduce a scenario demonstrating how the tool is utilized for modelling and actually executing an integration scenario.
Scheibler, Thorsten; Leymann, Frank
Estimation of the Transportation Risks for the Spent Fuel in Korea for Various Transportation Scenarios
According to the long term management strategy for spent fuels in Korea, they will be transported from the spent fuel pools in each nuclear power plant to the central interim storage facility (CISF) which is to start operation in 2016. Therefore, we have to determine the safe and economical logistics for the transportation of these spent fuels by considering their transportation risks and costs. In this study, we developed four transportation scenarios by considering the type of transportation casks and transport means in order to suggest safe and economical transportation logistics for the spent fuels in Korea. Also, we estimated and compared the transportation risks for these four transportation scenarios. From the results of this study, we found that these four transportation scenarios for spent fuels have a very low radiological risk activity with a manageable safety and health consequences. The results of this study can be used as basic data for the development of safe and economical logistics for a transportation of the spent fuels in Korea by considering the transportation costs for the four scenarios which will be needed in the near future. (authors)
Jongtae, Jeong; Cho, D.K.; Choi, H.J.; Choi, J.W. [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Yuseong, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)
Teaching Elementary Art Methods Courses: Profiles and Scenarios.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Presents profiles of two instructors of elementary art methods courses for preservice elementary teachers, offering two possible scenarios in which they might find themselves. One scenario presents contradictory realities and contexts, while the other scenario discusses celebration of the artistry within teaching. (SM)
Jeffers, Carol
Scenarios for the Future of Teacher Education in Europe.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Presents four scenarios that illustrate possible futures of teacher education in Europe. The scenarios differ in their emphasis on four driving forces: pragmatism, idealism, individualism, and social coherence. Each scenario is described in terms of characteristics of society, education/teacher education, and teacher/teacher educator roles and is�
Snoek, Marco; Baldwin, Gavin; Cautreels, Paul; Enemaerke, Torsten; Halstead, Valerie; Hilton, Gillian; Klemp, Torunn; Leriche, Leo; Linde, Goran; Nilsen, Elisabeth; Rehn, Joran; Smet, Ronny; Smith, Kari; Sousa, Jesus Maria; Stomp, Lex; Svensson, Hans; and Svensson, Leif
Using energy scenarios to explore alternative energy pathways in California
This paper develops and analyzes four energy scenarios for California that are both exploratory and quantitative. The business-as-usual scenario represents a pathway guided by outcomes and expectations emerging from California's energy crisis. Three alternative scenarios represent contexts where clean energy plays a greater role in California's energy system: Split Public is driven by local and individual activities; Golden State gives
Rebecca Ghanadan; Jonathan G. Koomey
Biomass Scenario Model Documentation: Data and References
The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model that represents the entire biomass-to-biofuels supply chain, from feedstock to fuel use. The BSM is a complex model that has been used for extensive analyses; the model and its results can be better understood if input data used for initialization and calibration are well-characterized. It has been carefully validated and calibrated against the available data, with data gaps filled in using expert opinion and internally consistent assumed values. Most of the main data sources that feed into the model are recognized as baseline values by the industry. This report documents data sources and references in Version 2 of the BSM (BSM2), which only contains the ethanol pathway, although subsequent versions of the BSM contain multiple conversion pathways. The BSM2 contains over 12,000 total input values, with 506 distinct variables. Many of the variables are opportunities for the user to define scenarios, while others are simply used to initialize a stock, such as the initial number of biorefineries. However, around 35% of the distinct variables are defined by external sources, such as models or reports. The focus of this report is to provide insight into which sources are most influential in each area of the supply chain.
Lin, Y.; Newes, E.; Bush, B.; Peterson, S.; Stright, D.
Sociotechnical scenarios for the Austrian energy system
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Reducing greenhouse gases by 80%, as demanded by the IPCC, is one of the great long-term challenges facing our societies today and will doubtless require transformative changes to current energy regimes. Large-scale system transitions such as the one envisaged for the global energy system in the next 30-40 years can only be realized through complex processes of change involving global, regional, national, and local levels. In this paper we use sociotechnical scenario analysis to contribute ideas for the transformative change of the current Austrian energy system over the long term and to identify some of the particular policy measures, as well as structural changes and broader shifts in perspective, that would be necessary to deal with such challenges. There is less emphasis on the technical issues involved than on the socio-economic and governance requirements such a shift would demand. We also explain our experiences with the sociotechnical scenario process and its outcomes. In particular, we identify examples of some critical issues and opportunities within one of the identified key action fields and discuss their various implications for energy policy and everyday practices.
Ornetzeder, Michael; Rohracher, Harald; W�chter, Petra
Cosmological structure problem of the ekpyrotic scenario
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
We address the perturbation power spectrum generated in the recently proposed ekpyrotic scenario by Khoury et al. The issue has been raised recently by Lyth who used the conventional method based on a conserved variable in the large-scale limit, and derived different results from Khoury et al. The calculation is straightforward in the uniform-curvature gauge where the generated blue spectrum with a suppressed amplitude survives as the final spectrum. Whereas, although the metric fluctuations become unimportant and a scale-invariant spectrum is generated in the zero-shear gauge, the mode does not survive the bounce, but has the same final result. Therefore, an exponential potential leads to a power-law expansion or contraction a~\\|t\\|p, and the power p dictates the final power spectra of both the scalar and tensor structures. If p<<1 as one realization of the ekpyrotic scenario suggests, the results are nS-1~=2~=nT and the amplitude of the scalar perturbation is suppressed relative to that of the gravitational wave by a factor (p)/2. Both results confirm Lyth's. An observation is made on the constraint on the dynamics of the seed generating stage from the requirement of a scale-invariant spectrum.
Hwang, Jai-Chan
Realistic cosmological scenario with nonminimal kinetic coupling
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
We investigate cosmological scenarios in the theory of gravity with the scalar field possessing a nonminimal kinetic coupling to the curvature. It is shown that the kinetic coupling provides an essentially new inflationary mechanism. Namely, at early cosmological times the domination of coupling terms in the field equations guarantees the quasi-de Sitter behavior of the scale factor: a(t)?eH?t with H?=1/9?, where ??10-74sec2 is the coupling parameter. The primary inflationary epoch driven by nonminimal kinetic coupling comes to the end at tf?10-35sec. Later on, the matter terms are dominating, and the Universe enters into the matter-dominated epoch which lasts approximately 0.5H0-1�0.5�1018sec. Then, the cosmological term comes into play, and the Universe enters into the secondary inflationary epoch with a(t)?eH?t, where H?=?/3. Thus, the cosmological mo