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Optimism and Pessimism On The New Round Of Peace Talks
July 25, 2013 § 13 Comments
Now that reports are surfacing that negotiations between the Israelis and the Palestinians are scheduled to begin in Washington on Tuesday – although there are also conflicting reports that Saeb Erekat is going to stay home until the Israelis agree to use the 1967 lines as the basis for negotiations over the final border – it seems like a good time to lay out some reasons for optimism and reasons for pessimism about whether these talks are fated to go anywhere. Since I am generally pretty cynical about such things, let's start with the reasons why I think the talks may fail. One of the biggest obstacles is the domestic politics involved. Brent Sasley has written a thorough piece arguing that the politics right now on the Israeli side are actually favorable for meaningful negotiations and concessions, but I tend to see things differently. Prime Minister Netanyahu has not shown the willingness in the past to actually deal with the hard choices involved in coming to an agreement, and while that does not mean that he is incapable of doing so, nothing in his past indicates that he is an enthusiastic peace process negotiator. If he is being dragged to the negotiating table unwillingly through a combination of pressure and quid pro quo for past U.S. security assistance, it is not going to bode well for the final outcome. Even if he is doing it of his own volition, which is certainly in the realm of possibility, the fact that he seems unwilling to accede to measures such as relinquishing sovereignty over parts of Jerusalem – which is going to have to be in any deal that the Palestinians will accept – is a bad omen. Then there is the problem of Netanyahu's party. The current iteration of the Likud is the most right wing in its history, and a large bloc, if not an outright majority of the party, does not trust Netanyahu and is adamantly opposed to negotiations. In fact, an increasingly large subset of Likud members, led by Danny Danon, have been openly calling for Israel to annex the West Bank and ditch the two state solution in favor of the rightwing version of a one state solution. It is also the case that the more radical Likud members now control the party's policy apparatus and serve as deputy ministers in the government; in fact, it seems as if Netanyahu is refuting the latest nonsense from Deputy Defense Minister Danon every other week. Sasley argues that this cast of characters is aware that they cannot win without Netanyahu and will ultimately fall in line, but I am not nearly so certain. Plenty of Likud voters will vote for the party if, say, Bogie Ya'alon is the headliner, and I don't think that the Likud ministers and back benchers are going to sit idly by if Netanyahu begins to give up territory in the West Bank or order the evacuation of settlements. They have staked their political reputations almost entirely on rejectionism of the two state solution, and just because Netanyahu asks them nicely does not mean that they would not rather have a smaller but purer version of the Likud. See the experience that John Boehner has had with his own unruly caucus of House Republican newcomers as a parallel to how this would play out. Furthermore, Netanyahu is being kept afloat by his temporary merger with Yisrael Beiteinu, which he wants to turn into a permanent one. Without the extra YB votes, Likud immediately loses 10-12 seats in the Knesset. The problem is that Avigdor Lieberman is in many ways the original rightwing one stater, and there is simply no way in which he agrees to keep the two parties together once settlements are given up. Netanyahu knows this, which provides another incentive to make sure that talks break down along their usual pattern. The same problem exists with coalition partner Habayit Hayehudi, which has repeatedly threatened to leave the government over the issue of freezing settlements and whose head, Naftali Bennett, is also an advocate of annexation. Sasley argues that pulling out of the coalition will risk breaking the party apart, leaving Bennett politically homeless, and so he can't risk it. I think the much bigger risk to Bennett is the party folding or excommunicating him for selling out his core principles if he agrees to remain in a government that agrees to extricate itself from the West Bank. After all, the party's very name – Jewish Home in English – is meant to refer to the entirely of the Land of Israel from the river to the sea and explicitly lay claim to all of the territory as part of the Jewish state. The idea that the greater risk in this lies in leaving the government seems to gloss over the very reason the party exists, its history, and its makeup. There is also the issue of a referendum, which Netanyahu has now promised to hold to approve any peace agreement that is struck with the Palestinians. While the latest poll in Ha'aretz indicates that 55% of Israelis would approve a peace agreement, that is in a generic sense. Once the details are factored in and various political parties and lobbying groups begin to play on Israeli fears about security, sovereignty over Jerusalem and the Temple Mount, the Jewish character of the state, etc. it will be very easy to siphon off entire groups of voters through scare tactics and populist campaigns. That 55% number is a mirage, akin to the way in which Yair Lapid supports a two state solution but is adamantly opposed to any division of Jerusalem; lots of people support a peace deal in theory, but the devil is in the details. Bennett knows this, which is why Habayit Hayehudi has pushed to extend the Basic Law that requires a referendum to approve giving up land that Israel has annexed – East Jerusalem and the Golan – to include the West Bank as well. The hope on the right is that a referendum will doom any successful negotiations for good. Finally, there is the Palestinian side. There is no need to rehash here all of the various arguments over Mahmoud Abbas and whether he rejected Ehud Olmert's offer of 99% of the West Bank or whether he simply did not respond because Olmert was a lame duck and out of office before he even had a chance. My own opinion is that the truth lies somewhere in the middle, but I am not as convinced as others on the left that Abbas is a willing a peace negotiator. The insistence on preconditions to negotiating is a tactic designed to doom talks, and the fact that Abbas was not willing to jump on Netanyahu's partial 10 month building freeze a couple of years ago as the excuse he needed to reenter talks does not bolster the case of those who want to pin all of the blame on the Israeli side. Abbas may indeed want to talk, but I do not think it is fair to portray him as champing at the bit to get started. On the flip side, there are reasons to be optimistic. While, as I noted above, Netanyahu has not shown a propensity in the past to reach an agreement that the Palestinians can reasonably accept, he certainly appears to have arrived at the realization that Israel's international standing is becoming more precarious by the day. The EU guidelines on settlements last week seem to have been a wakeup call of sorts, and his now repeated public warnings that Israel is facing a real prospect of a binational state indicate that his attitude in 2013 is very different than it was during his tenure as prime minister in the mid-90s or during the beginning of his current stint in 2009. In addition, as Dahlia Scheindlin has pointed out, polls consistently and repeatedly show support for a two state solution, 83 out of 120 seats in the current Knesset are controlled by parties theoretically supporting two states, and the support for two states remains even when you add various line items about specific concessions into the polling questions. In this light, the referendum may turn out to be a very good thing, since it will reinforce the move toward a negotiated solution. It is also encouraging that Netanyahu is seeking political cover to do what needs to be done, since if he negotiates a deal that is then approved by the Israeli electorate, it will be difficult for the right to claim that he has overstepped his authority. Finally, there is the fact that the best way for negotiations to succeed is if the specific details are kept under wraps, and any concessions made by either side are not wielded by opponents of two states as populist cudgels designed to doom the talks. John Kerry has done a good job of this by not publicly outlining the conditions that each side have agreed to in order for talks to resume, but even more encouragingly so has Netanyahu. There is currently a purposeful cloud of ambiguity hovering over the question of whether Israel has frozen settlement construction or not, with Netanyahu denying such a freeze exists and Housing Minister Uri Ariel saying that the de facto and unannounced policy in place is not allowing for any new construction. This, more than anything, is the most hopeful sign of all, since if Netanyahu has actually frozen settlement construction while trying to trick his party and coalition into thinking that he has done no such thing, it is a more serious indication of his desire to really strike a deal than any other datapoint I have seen. P.S. To watch me talk about this more extensively, here is a link to a video of a roundtable hosted by David Halperin and the Israel Policy Forum that I did yesterday with Hussein Ibish and Dahlia Scheindlin. It's long, but an interesting and thorough discussion of the various issues involved.
Guest Post: The Yesha Council's One State Plan
March 21, 2013 § 2 Comments
Today's guest post is brought to you by my friend Joel Braunold, who heads up Strategic Partnerships for the OneVoice Movement. Joel is a keen observer of Israeli politics and a passionate advocate for a two state solution, and he has been keeping his eye on Naftali Bennett's Habayit Hayehudi party and its efforts to carry out the settlement movement's aims. The Yesha Council, which is the most prominent settler group, has released a new strategy paper coinciding with President Obama's visit to Israel, and Joel has an extended take (see his quick take at Open Zion here) on what it portends for the new Knesset and government. You can read more of Joel's work on his blog at Haaretz.com and his Twitter handle is @braunold.
With President Obama visiting Israel, many groups are trying to get his attention so they can let the president know what they think he should do. Included within the pleas from the peace camp and the 'Free Pollard' camp is a document prepared by the Yesha council titled, "Judea and Samaria – It's Jewish, It's Vital, It's Realistic."
Questions answered within this Kafkaesque document include: why the demographics are on the settlers' side, why the Palestinians are stealing water from Israel, and what is the legal history of Israel's settlement enterprise. Most interesting, however, is the nine-step plan that the Yesha council has created at the end of the document to fulfill their vision.
The main tool that the Yesha council has to achieve its vision are its political advocates in the Knesset and in the government. Their building in the West Bank happens through the good graces of the state authorities. Of course the main party for the Yesha council is Habayit Hayehudi, but they also have representation through Likud and Yisrael Beiteinu and a scattering of MKs in some of the center parties. Members of their communities operate across the center and right of the Israeli political spectrum.
Looking at the nine steps we can see the underlying Habayit Hayehudi strategy during the coalition talks. Additionally we can start to make sense of some of the other Knesset moves and statements by members of the settler community on the national stage.
Step 1: Renewing the strong belief in the supremacy of the Jewish claim to the Jewish Homeland and the justness of taking measures to maintain control of it
In the coalition agreement between Likud and Habayit Hayehudi was a bill to make the Jewishness of the state supreme. This is a redo of the Avi Dichter bill from the last Knesset. No one is quite sure of which version will hit the Knesset, if it gets through Tzipi Livni, but it is part of a big move to decouple the concepts of Jewish and democratic state as equal and promote the former at the expense of the latter. The motivations behind this become clear in a strategy that is tied into biblical land claims and preparing for a situation where the civil rights of millions of Palestinians are going to have to be restricted.
Step 2: Uniting the nation and its leadership
Throughout the coalition talks, Bennett was the peacemaker between Yair Lapid and Bibi Netanyahu and has pledged to be a leader for all of Israel, not just the settlers. His party has also taken over key ministries that can affect the cost of living across Israel. Bennett has been very keen to be seen as responding to the J14 protests and be a transformative politician who can transcend the tribal politics of the moment and be one of the new leaders of Israel alongside Lapid. By also slipping in the raising of the electoral threshold into the coalition agreement, he can ride the wave of Habayit Hayehudi current popularity and force others from his camp to work with him if they want any representation at all. By forcing people into a broad tent he gives himself a broader appeal and solidifies himself and by extension the Yesha council firmly into the mainstream.
Step 3: Military strength and control of the territory by the security establishment
Though many ex-military and security men veer to the left after they retire from service (just see The Gatekeepers), the new Defense Minister, Moshe Ya'alon, most definitely veers to the right and was the first choice of the settler community. Though the security establishment is pretty much entrenched in the West Bank already, Ehud Barak had been the thorn in the side of the Yesha council. With him removed the security establishment can work in concert with the Yesha council in helping it expand both from the Knesset and on the ground itself.
Step 4: The elimination of terror and cessation of incitement in Palestinian schools
While all Israelis want to see an end to terror and incitement, the previous government's flat-out rejection of the State Department's school textbook report demonstrates a complete unwillingness to examine the issue of incitement on both sides of the border. It is essential to demonize the Palestinian national narrative while maintaining that individual Palestinians are ok and stating that the settlements actually have had great relationships with the communities pre the first intifada.
Step 5: Creating a situation where it becomes clear to the international community that another state west of the Jordan River is not viable
The serious policy community is split about whether the two-state solution has already been killed by the settlements and the Yesha council or if it is merely on life support. Needless to say, the Yesha council is well on its way to pulling the plug. The new Deputy Foreign Minister, Ze'ev Elkin, already ascribes to this point of view. Though many advocates of one-state agree that the settlements have killed the two-state solution they do not share the Yesha council's vision of what a one-state solution would look like. The power and establishment will be with the Yesha council and in doing so it will have a tremendous momentum on the ground when two-states is officially abandoned to fulfill its vision before anyone else gets a look in. Yes, Israel will lose friends and allies and there might be a brain drain that could seriously affect the economy. But I sadly have less faith that pressure will force Israel to give up its raison d'état of providing the Jewish people with self-defense and power by giving those they have been occupying full civic rights. The death of the two-state solution will mean the Yesha council has won, and read the rest of their document to see how they view Palestinians.
Step 6: The further immigration of one million Jews to Israel to secure a permanent Jewish majority in Israel
In the coalition talks, Bennett managed to carve the Diaspora portfolio out of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and into his own portfolio. The reason for this now becomes crystal clear, as he is desperate to get more Jews to immigrate. Bennett demanding this portfolio always seemed odd. The settlements are often the largest bone of contention between Israel and her Diaspora (amongst Jews who are engaged at least). Passing on this responsibility to the former general secretary of the Yesha council looks on the surface to be a recipe for disaster. This step helps us understand the real consequence of why this demand was made. What will be interesting to see is how Bennett attempts to bring Diaspora Jews to Israel and how their aliyah will be tied to step 7. Is the aim just to lock in the demographics regardless of where the Jews live or to get them to move to the West Bank and lock in the settlements? We will have to wait and see but watch to see where new job incentives will be made for new immigrants, as Bennett has the ability through Trade and Industry to create incentives where he chooses.
Step 7: One million Jews in Judea and Samaria, tripling its Jewish population
With the housing and trade ministries, Habayit Hayehudi can now start working on this. The proof will be in where the new low-income housing is built. Even if just restricted into the settlement blocs, if this plan is being followed the aim will be a massive increase in settlers. As with step 6, we will have to see if alyiah and settlement are linked. President Bush (41) conditioned the aid to help resettle the Russian Jews on them not being housed in the West Bank. One other important step to remember is that Bennett received the public diplomacy portfolio as well. Through this he can push the settlements into the official Israeli government narrative both at home and abroad.
Step 8: The creation of large residential areas surrounding the current communities of Judea and Samaria
Housing, Trade, Knesset Finance chair – between these three portfolios and a willing defense minister the sky is the limit on step 8. I predict the concept of settlement bloc will expand and large scale projects will begin to be planned as expansions in key areas. Even more so then Yaalon, Danny Danon is a particular fan of the Yesha council and he is Deputy Defense Minister.
Step 9: The execution of a construction, development and economic plan for the million residents of Judea and Samaria
Habayit Hayehudi has already indicated that they would rather release prisoners and transfer taxes to the PA than freeze settlement construction. Looking at this nine-step plan, it is easy to see why Bennett would rather give any other 'confidence building measure' than allow the slowing of the settler population. The one thing that the party cannot allow is a settlement freeze as it destroys the plan above.
All of this should be seen as nothing less than a strategic effort to kill the two-state solution. Keep in mind that Prime Minister Netanyahu just committed his new government to two states for two peoples in his joint press conference with President Obama on Wednesday. Looking at how this is planned out, it is clear that the only thing that could stop this from happening is freezing settlement construction. The sad fact is that a settlement freeze has already been tossed by the US administration as a failed attempt.
The Yesha council is very open about its aims, objectives and methods. If people want to do more than pay lip service to the idea of two-states, they must not only oppose the Yesha council at every turn of this plan but offer their own step by step approach to how to create a two-state reality today. Though it is the establishment opinion that two-states will happen, those opposing it literally are executing on a plan to kill it. Those of us who wish to see it come about must equally set out a plan and today start building facts on the ground to make it so.
Bibi's Coalition Gamble
February 20, 2013 § 6 Comments
It has been almost a month since the Israeli election, and yesterday finally brought us the first move to form a coalition as Tzipi Livni's Hatnua party agreed to join up with Bibi Netanyahu and Likud Beiteinu. I have been skeptical throughout the campaign and the election's aftermath that Livni would come to an agreement with Netanyahu given her efforts to convince Ehud Olmert and even Shimon Peres to run; her failed maneuvering at uniting Hatnua, Labor, and Yesh Atid into an anti-Bibi bloc; her constant railing against Netanyahu as a danger and a failed prime minister; the fact that Hatnua includes former Labor leaders Amir Peretz and Amram Mitzna, neither of whom are exactly Netanyahu cheerleaders; and finally, her refusal to join with Bibi after the last election when her party – which was then Kadima – had the most seats in the Knesset and she would have been able to work out a deal in which she served as co-prime minister. Nevertheless, Livni has now reversed course and has accepted the positions of Justice Minister and chief negotiator with the Palestinians, and she will be reporting to Netanyahu rather than the eventual Foreign Minister in this latter gig.
Many people are now speculating on what this means for the peace process and whether Livni's overseeing negotiations means that we can expect some real movement ahead. I don't think this changes anything and I wouldn't be taking any investment advice from people who think that Livni is going to pull Netanyahu along rather than the reverse, but the really interesting angle here is the political one. Bringing Livni into the coalition is not about Netanyahu signaling anything on the peace process, but about putting pressure on Naftali Bennett to join the government. The thinking on Netanyahu's part goes as follows: he now has 37 seats lined up and getting Kadima and its 2 seats is a given, and he is on the verge of adding Shas (his real goal all along) and its 11 seats, which means that he can then turn to Bennett and Habayit Hayehudi and use their 12 seats to get past the magic number of 61. Netanyahu is gambling that once he adds Kadima and Shas, he will present Bennett with an ultimatum of joining the government or calling new elections, and that Bennett will not be able to withstand the pressure ensuing from calls for him to join a rightwing coalition and so he will crack. Essentially, Netanyahu is betting on Bennett's alliance with Yair Lapid and Yesh Atid not being strong enough to buck the rightwing nationalist forces in HH who want to band together with Likud and the religious forces in HH who don't see why serving in a government with Shas is the end of the world. Hence the immediate rumors that negotiations with Shas are proceeding and that it too will join the coalition imminently.
This plan of Bibi's seems nicely formulated, but ultimately I don't think it will work. More importantly, if Bennett is smart he will make sure that it doesn't. The success of Bibi's strategy turns on the idea that Bennett will do anything to avoid going to another round of elections, but much as I thought (correctly, as it turned out) that Netanyahu miscalculated in allying with Yisrael Beiteinu, I think he is miscalculating here as well. Netanyahu's gamble is that new elections will cost Bennett seats and weaken his position, and that might have been true before yesterday, but bringing in Livni changes things in a big way. If I am a HH voter, I am not going to punish the party for not joining with its natural Likud partner by fleeing and and now voting for Likud since bringing Tzipi Livni on board to deal with peace process issues makes Likud untrustworthy. Looking at this map of election results and seeing where HH got votes makes this point abundantly clear; voters in Elon Moreh and Karnei Shomron are not now going to give up on Bennett and vote for Bibi given his most recent coalition choice.
In addition, many Likud voters are not going to be terribly happy now that Netanyahu has banded together with Livni, and I don't see how doing so possibly increases his share of votes at all in a hypothetical new round of elections. If anything, it drives even more people away and into the arms of Bennett, and if you need some further proof, just look at Moshe Feiglin's crack today that he hopes Likud will be in the coalition too. Furthermore, by trying to repeat history and bring Shas – his most pliable partners – into the coalition, Netanyahu is turning his back on the draft issue, which is one of the most popular issues in Israel today and which Lapid rode to his stunning success. Not only is Netanyahu potentially angering his base by bringing Livni in, he is angering many other voters who don't understand why he insists on bringing Shas into the government despite the massive popular will for reforming the draft. Given what has transpired, if new elections were held today, I think that Likud would drop even further while Habayit Hayehudi and Yesh Atid would pick up some new mandates.
Netanyahu is behaving as if bringing first Livni and then Shas into the government gives him all the leverage he needs over Bennett to break up the YA-HH alliance, but I think he has things wrong. If he brings in Shas, he will then be unable to form a government without Lapid or Bennett (I am operating on the assumption that Labor is not joining at this point), and so in reality Bennett will be the one with the leverage over Netanyahu. Reports are that Bennett is feeling heat from within his party over his footdragging to run to Likud and his head-scratching unbreakable bond with Lapid, but by brining Livni into the government, Netanyahu actually did Bennett a favor. He now has a good excuse to sit tight, and once Netanyahu strikes a deal with Shas, he benefits further from sticking to his guns on the draft issue and staying out. If I were Bennett and Netanyahu presented me with the ultimatum to join the coalition with Shas or go to new elections, I would be printing up new campaign posters before even getting off the phone.
The Prospects For Real Peace Talks
February 13, 2013 § 2 Comments
I wrote about this topic last week from the U.S. perspective in light of President Obama's forthcoming trip to Israel, but from the standpoint of Israel politics some comments yesterday from Yair Lapid and Naftali Bennett are worth highlighting in assessing what movement we can expect to see on the peace process from the next Israeli government. As faithful O&Z readers know, I am fairly confident that Yesh Atid and Habayit Hayehudi will be in the coalition, and I am also fairly confident that Yair Lapid cares a lot more about the military draft issue than he does about the peace process and that he should not be viewed as the great savior of the peace camp and the two state solution. In light of this, let's consider some facts that are emerging about the coalition talks and some things that were said by Lapid and Bennett yesterday in different forums.
To begin with, Lapid and Bennett have negotiated a deal that binds their fates together so that either Yesh Atid and Habayit Hayehudi will both be in the government or both parties will stay out. While Bibi Netanyahu is frantically trying to peel Bennett away from Lapid by making him extravagant but exploding offers, so far Bennett appears to be resistant to go back on his agreement with Lapid. This is interesting, because obviously Likud is more of a natural partner for Habayit Hayehudi than Yesh Atid is as Netanyahu and Bennett are closer ideologically – despite their history of personal issues – than Bennett and Lapid are. The one issue on which HH and YA are closer on is the issue of the draft and equalizing the burden of service, which suggests that it is the issue most important to both Lapid and Bennett and the one on which both parties are most reluctant to back down. Lots of attention has been paid to Lapid's pledge that he is guided by overhauling the draft and reanimating the peace process and that he will not join a government that does not agree to do both, but in tying his fate to Bennett's, he is signaling that one of those issues is far more important to him than the other and that the peace process condition is more about lip service than anything else.
Then there were Lapid's remarks yesterday before the Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations meeting in Jerusalem, in which he said that Ehud Olmert had gone too far in his concessions toward the Palestinians while prime minister, that Jerusalem could never be divided in his view, and that the Palestinians were going to have to accept an interim semi-state within temporary borders subject to future revision. Now, none of this makes Lapid a fire-breathing Greater Israel supporter, but it also does not make him the great champion of the two state solution that some think he is. Not agreeing to a Palestinian capital in East Jerusalem and talking about interim agreements are both positions that probably make peace talks doomed to fail before they even begin. The interim agreement is the bigger hurdle of these two, since while Jerusalem can be negotiated over during talks, no Palestinian government at this point will even come to the table for talks that deal with anything less than a final status agreement. This is the ultimate display of someone trying to cultivate a more left-wing image without adopting any policies to match. Again, this does not make Lapid an extremist or out of line with mainstream Israeli popular opinion, but it also does not make him the next Yitzhak Rabin.
Lapid's new best friend also had some things of his own to say about the prospects of a Palestinian state yesterday, but in a much more straightforward way. In a Knesset speech, Bennett said that "there is no room" for a Palestinian state, that it will never happen, and that the government needs to say with finality that the Land of Israel belongs to the people of Israel. Nobody has ever had any illusions about Bennett's views on the peace process and the two state solution so this does not come as a surprise, but the important takeaway here is that Lapid knows full well what Bennett's views are and has still hitched his wagon to Bennett's. Irrespective of whatever his own personal views may be, it is difficult from a political perspective to think that Lapid is committed to real negotiations when he will only go into the government if Bennett goes as well. Taking all of these factors into consideration, even if Tzipi Livni bring Hatnua into the government nobody should be getting their hopes up too high for a big diplomatic push on the horizon.
Did Israelis Give The Center A Big Win?
January 24, 2013 § 9 Comments
Now that the final results of the Israeli election are in, everyone is rushing to declare that centrist parties were the big winners and that the Israeli electorate has made a surprising shift away from the right. This is understandable in light of the fact that Yair Lapid and his Yesh Atid party won 19 seats to become the second largest party in the Knesset and Bibi Netanyahu led the Likud-Beiteinu list to an extremely disappointing 31 seats, down from the 42 seats that Likud and Yisrael Beiteinu control in the current Knesset. Nevertheless, I think that this view of things is incorrect. As I argue in Foreign Affairs, this does not take into account that the other so-called centrist parties did poorly and finished well below expectations and that many Likud voters chose to move even farther to the right by giving Habayit Hayehudi 12 seats. In addition, Yesh Atid can be characterized as centrist in some ways but as pragmatically rightwing in others, and so dubbing yesterday's results as an unabashed win for the center is misleading. In fact, the center controls 28 seats in the current Knesset, but will control 27 seats in the next one (19 for Yesh Atid, 6 for Hatnua, 2 for Kadima), so in reality the center actually lost ground. No doubt Lapid scored a big victory, but one centrist party doing well does not mean that Israel is now avowedly centrist, particularly when other centrist parties turned in disappointing performances and the banner rightwing nationalist party more than doubled its current Knesset representation. Here is a teaser from my piece in FA:
The problem with this narrative, however, is that Tuesday's results were not really a victory for centrists and Yesh Atid is not really a centrist party. The largest vote-getter was still Likud-Beiteinu, made up of arguably the most right-wing version of Likud in the party's history and the nationalist and pro-settlement Yisrael Beiteinu. Bayit Yehudi also did well, and it will be the fourth largest party in the Knesset with 11 seats. On the left, Labor underperformed and could not even garner enough votes to win second place as expected. Livni's Hatnua, meanwhile, won fewer seats than even the parochial ultra-orthodox party, United Torah Judaism. Kadima, a real centrist party, has all but disappeared, plummeting from 28 seats to two. Even though the right-wing parties did not do quite as well as they had hoped, the larger picture does not support the claim that the center scored a great victory.
Furthermore, the grouping of Labor, Hatnua, and Yesh Atid under a centrist or center-left banner is analytically lazy. On economic issues, those three parties do indeed fall within the left and the center. On security and foreign policy issues, Labor and Hatnua are centrist as well. Yesh Atid, however, cannot be accurately described as centrist when it comes to the peace process. Lapid has stated that Jerusalem cannot be divided under any circumstances and insists that standing firm on this issue will force the Palestinians to recant their demand that East Jerusalem serve as the capital of a future Palestinian state. During the campaign, Lapid chose the West Bank settlement of Ariel as the place to give a major campaign speech calling for negotiations with the Palestinians, and declined to endorse a settlement freeze. None of this is enough to put him into the far-right camp, which rejects the two-state solution and calls for annexing the West Bank, but it also does not make him a centrist. In fact, Lapid's views on security issues are close to those that Netanyahu has publicly staked out.
To read the rest please click over to Foreign Affairs, and comments and emails are welcome as always.
Netanyahu's Conundrum
January 23, 2013 § Leave a comment
Yesterday morning before any of the election results were in, I had a piece up at the Atlantic arguing that the coalition stability that was a hallmark of the current government was destined to end. In my view, the choices that Bibi Netanyahu was likely to end up with were going to create pressures from one side or another no matter which path he decided to go down. Here is the relevant passage:
There are two factors that are going to contribute to detonating Netanyahu's coveted stability. The first is that unlike during the past three plus years, Netanyahu is going to have a significant presence on his right flank both within his party and outside, creating constant pressure to take a harder line on settlements and the peace process. The Likud primary in November created the most right-wing version of the party that has ever existed. For instance, among the returning Likud MKs in the new Knesset will be the inciters of May's anti-immigrant race riot, a mass of supporters for annexing the West Bank, and new MK Moshe Feiglin who wants to be the Mohamed Morsi of anti-Arab remarks. This group largely distrusts Netanyahu and will be waiting to pounce at even the slightest digression from their preferred policy of holding on to the West Bank forever.
In addition, Netanyahu will be dealing with the newly empowered nationalist Habayit Hayehudi (Jewish Home) Party, which is poised to become the third largest party in the Knesset. This party is led by Netanyahu's former chief of staff Naftali Bennett, who also advocates unilaterally annexing Area C of the West Bank and recently got into trouble for saying that he would refuse orders to evacuate settlements. ( He recanted after the predictable furor that arose.) Either as part of the coalition or as a constant thorn in Netanyahu's side, the large Habayit Hayehudi bloc will be pushing Netanyahu constantly to the right.
The second new factor, which operates at complete cross-purposes to the first, is that Netanyahu will be looking at a renewed push by outside actors on the peace process at a time in which international pressure on Israel is beginning to reach a critical mass. John Kerry is going to want to tackle the peace process as one of his priorities as Secretary of State, and Britain and France intend to present their own plan for resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict with the support of Germany and possibly the full European Union. Anger toward Israel over settlements and the breakdown of the peace process has lately intensified. Whether this is justified or not, given Palestinian foot-dragging, the anger exists to the point that even Israeli diplomats are beginning to get frustrated over the heat they are taking over West Bank construction.
Now that the results are in, I think this analysis still holds, and is perhaps even more salient to understanding what will happen next. Netanyahu is almost certainly going to have to build a coalition that includes Yesh Atid and Habayit Hayehudi, and this means foot-dragging on the peace process and a storm of international pressure. The option of trying to pivot to the center on security and peace process issues is a lot more difficult today than it was yesterday. Netanyahu had some serious problems within Likud before, since the newly empowered crop of hardliners did not really trust him to begin with, but now he has to deal with the fact that he has led his party to the hollowest of victories. His gambit of merging with Yisrael Beiteinu backfired badly, particularly since only 20 of the 31 Likud Beiteinu MKs hail from Likud because of the seat allocation deal he worked out with Avigdor Lieberman, and undoubtedly Likud members are not very happy this morning. If Yisrael Beiteinu separates from Likud in thirty days as the merger agreement allows, Likud will be the largest party by only one seat. In order to prevent this from happening, Netanyahu is going to have to promise Lieberman the moon and the stars, which also does not bode well for any new push to slow down settlement growth or fast track negotiations with the Palestinians. Any moves that Netanyahu makes in that direction will imperil his leadership as head of Likud and prompt a rebellion within the ranks. Nobody should underestimate just how much pressure Netanyahu is now under from his own side, let alone from the parties on the left of the spectrum that would like nothing more than to bring him down. Netanyahu is in a very difficult spot, and while I am relatively sure he will be able to form a coalition and serve as prime minister, don't expect it to last very long.
Welcome to Israeli Election Day
January 22, 2013 § 2 Comments
Finally, the day we've all been waiting for – Israelis go to the polls today to elect a new Knesset and a new government for the first time since 2009. Despite the fact that we don't have any results yet, I thought I'd set out a list of things we know and things we don't.
Things We Know:
–Bibi Netanyahu and Likud Beiteinu are going to win the most seats in the Knesset and Likud will be the largest party. This is an easy one given the polls, since even with the Likud Beiteinu list losing about a seat a week for months now, no other party is going to come close to the 32-36 seats LB is likely to take. The irony of course is that Netanyahu created the joint list in order to create an unbeatable force, yet Likud might have done better on its own as banding together with Avigdor Lieberman and Yisrael Beiteinu likely cost Netanyahu seats for a host of reasons (and from the Department of Shameless Self Promotion, remember who told you months ago that this was a very bad idea on Bibi's part). Despite the blunder, Labor is probably going to come in second with 15-18 seats, and Habayit Hayehudi and Yesh Atid are going to be battling for 3rd and 4th place. It is possible that the LB list will have twice as many seats as the next largest party despite its free fall in the polls, although this is a bit misleading since the two parties agreed to merge until only 30 days past the election, at which point they are free to revisit their agreement and separate. The most interesting little nugget about Likud being the largest party in the Knesset is that despite having served two terms as prime minister, this will be the first time that Netanyahu leads his party to a Knesset victory. When Netanyahu was elected in 1996, Israel was in the midst of its decade-long experiment of directly electing the prime minister, and so while Netanyahu beat Shimon Peres by 1% in the prime ministerial vote, Likud won 32 seats to Labor's 34. In 2009, Likud came in second to Kadima, but after Tzipi Livni was unable to form a government, Netanyahu swooped in and cobbled together a governing coalition despite controlling the second largest party in the Knesset rather than the largest. By the end of today, Netanyahu will finally be able to say that he led his party to an electoral victory.
Things We Don't Know
–Everything else. And I mean that. Aside from Likud Beiteinu winning the most mandates, I cannot say with 100% certainty what else will happen. I am 99% sure that Netanyahu is going to be the next prime minister, but there are enough weird things going on to give me that minuscule 1% pause. To begin with, there are an unusually high number of undecided voters, and while they might break Bibi's way, I don't think that Bibi's base is one that is marked by indecision, unless that indecision comprises whether to continue to vote for Netanyahu or to go with the trendier rightwing choice of Naftali Bennett and Habayit Hayehudi.
Furthermore, Netanyahu's margins are going to be very tight, and this means there is an outside chance that he pulls a Livni and can't pull off putting together a viable government. I am as confident as I can possibly be that HH is going to be in the coalition, but then the coalition math becomes very tricky. It involves bringing in a centrist party such as Yesh Atid, which will clash with HH and the more extremist Likud voices over peace process issues, or going with Shas and UTJ, who are toxic to HH over the draft and toxic to Yisrael Beiteinu over both the draft and the religious-secular divide. Then there is the possibility that Aryeh Deri's return to Shas means it is no longer so reliably rightwing and will give Netanyahu a harder time when it comes to coalition bargaining.
To throw another monkey wrench into this, there are the rumblings from all sorts of quarters that the electorate has shifted in the past few days and that the leftwing and centrist parties are going to do better than their polling indicates. If voter turnout is high, it means that left and center parties are going to do better than expected, in which case there is even a possibility that Netanyahu is denied the first chance to form a government. Last month I brought up the possibility of a unity government, which started to look ridiculous in the interim but now I am not so sure that I was off-base. Then there are the rumors that were flying around last night that Ehud Barak is going to be defense minister and Tzipi Livni foreign minister, which I find to be completely far-fetched given the rancor toward Barak exhibited by all sorts of newly influential Likud members and the fact that Netanyahu would never give Livni any real power as foreign minister while Livni would never accept the position to be a mere figurehead. All of this is to say that while Bibi is almost definitely going to remain as prime minister, the possibility of a black swan would not be entirely out of the blue. As for what type of coalition he will put together assuming he remains prime minister, your guess is as good as mine. If I have to predict something, it's that we will see a nationalist bent due to the inclusion of Habayit Hayehudi, that the haredi parties are going to be left out, and that Yesh Atid will be brought in. This will allow Bibi to keep his rightwingers happy on peace process and settlements, let Yesh Atid have its pet issue of reforming the draft, and not have to worry about the secular-religious divide issue bringing down the government. I can also see Labor being brought into this mix if Netanyahu wants to have the coalition be as big as possible or if the numbers are such that he needs another party but wants to avoid bringing in Shas. Whatever happens, the next few weeks promise to be an entertaining ride.


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Research in cancer immunology at the Sidney Kimmel Comprehensive Cancer Center (SKCCC), Johns Hopkins University (JHU) has undergone a natural progression from basic laboratory studies of the host immune response to cancer to the clinical evaluation of immune-based cancer therapies. Many of these immune-based strategies to mobilize and augment the anti-tumor immune response were founded on the discoveries made by JHU investigators. Moreover, the application of immunotherapeutic strategies as an adjunct to cancer treatment across a wide range of malignancies and therapeutic settings has expanded dramatically over the past several years. The ability to carefully and reliably quantify the human immune response is critically important to assess the impact of any immunotherapeutic strategy.
While there is great diversity in the therapeutic modalities being studied, most areas, in fact, overlap strongly in their techniques and approaches to immunological analysis. Modern immunological techniques for characterizing and quantifying human immune responses are complex, and it is difficult for individual investigators to assemble all the techniques that may be most appropriate for a particular project. The Human Immunology Core Laboratory (HICL) was established in 2005 to provide SKCCC investigators the capacity to reliably monitor and quantify human immune responses using state-of-the-art immunologic assays. Thus, the specific goals of this CORE are to:
- Provide technical expertise in immunological techniques used to monitor and characterize the human immune responses,
- Establish standard operating procedures and quality control measures for all immunological assays
- Communicate its expertise and availability to SKCCC investigators,
- Provide technical support to SKCCC investigators seeking to identify and develop assays specific to their research objectives, and
- Serve as a repository for key reagents and cell lines useful for the study of human immunology.
Julie Nauroth/Core Lab Director
Christopher Thoburn/Core Lab Manager
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Nov. 23 (Bloomberg) -- OAO Surgutneftegas, a Russian oil producer, issued a tender to sell 100,000 metric tons of Urals crude for loading from the Baltic Sea port of Primorsk, according to two traders who participate in the market.
The cargo is for loading from Dec. 6 to Dec. 7, according to the people, who declined to be identified because they aren't authorized to speak on the matter. The tender closes tomorrow.
Details of the sale are as follows:
--Editor: Raj Rajendran.
To contact the reporter on this story: Sherry Su in London at firstname.lastname@example.com
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Thank you for a wonderful stay Jenny! Your home was magical and a fabulous base for 2 families we were able to go out by day and experience the surrounding villages (gorgeous) / markets and come home to a refreshing swim. The pool & garden was a great attraction for our children and the home catered well for two families... More
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Hitachi ID Privileged Access Manager Slide Presentations
Click on the links below to view online slide presentations that show you how Hitachi ID Privileged Access Manager can help your organization. You can also print these presentations using Acrobat Reader.
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Though it may appear to be one of those things that 'takes care of itself', checking your car battery on a regular basis should be an important part of your car care routine, along with checking the tire, the wipers, and all of the essential motor fluids.
Car batteries can reduce in performance over time and even become corroded - meaning you might be unable to start your car which could potentially leave you stranded.
Luckily maintaining your cars battery is really simple and requires no techinical knowledge or expertise to do. So lets take a look at what you can do to maintain your cars battery:
Inspect The Battery Casing and Keep It Clean
The simplest thing you can do to maintain your battery is to simply just keep it clean. Basically, all you will need to do is to wipe the battery clean of oil and dirt and dust. (It is recommended to make cleaning the battery case a routine part of your engine detailing.)
For very oily or greasy battery cases, you can use a mild soap on a very damp rag to wash it away. Then use a dry cloth to dry the battery case well, as well as leave it with the shine and cleanliness of a new battery case.
Tip! a battery case which bulges or has cracks might need replacing
Next you should move onto to checking the battery case for any types of cracks, bulges or any other obvious abnormal imperfections. These could be signs that the battery itself might need replacing. In the event of damage to posts or clamps or severe damage to the battery casing, you should bring your car to an expert mechanic at a local car repair shop for further inspection and repairs.
Check The Battery Terminals and Connections
Now, to clean battery posts and or terminals; Remove and loosen the negative cable first. (Negative is always black or uses a minus (-) sign to recognize it). After removing the negative cable, remove the red cable (this is the positive cable).
Then combine a small mixture of baking soda and water until it becomes a paste form. Now, using a small wire brush, use the paste on the battery posts as a cleaning agent. This homemade paste will remove rust and corrosion and any oil or other substance that has built up on the battery terminals. Be sure the paste is quite thick, and not too much water has been added and that it does not drip at all. Once you are finished carefully clean any remaining paste off the battery clamps and terminals with a soft, dry cloth or kitchen towel.
Tip! A baking soda and water mixture is an excellent homemade cleaner you can use to clean your batteries terminals and clamps.
Now that the battery posts and case are cleaned, maintained and inspected accurately, coat the clamps and the posts with a very light coat of oil or grease. This will aid in preventing rust and corrosion in the future. Now you can begin to reconnect the cables, connect the positive (red) cable first, then the negative (black).
That's all there is to it. By performaing the above simple inspection and cleaning a few times a year you can perform a little of your cars maintenance at home and hopefully save some money on garage bills.
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Cheerson CX-10 VS MT M9911
Cheerson CX-10 and MT M9911 seems sold well as nano quadcopter or mini quadcopter?
Which one you'd rather buy?
Same here. I would hardly glance at those toys. Blade NanoQX all the way! At least I can get replacement parts for the Nano.
Woulnd't that be more expensive?
It really depends on ones needs, budget and desire. If one cares to stay in the hobby for any length of time, ultimately "investing" in better TX/RX equipment gives one many more craft/flight options, less radios to maintain and the ability to enjoy the hobby in a whole new light.....!
One will only get so far (especially in the heli/quad arena) with low budget products. Not to say they are not decent learning tools, but the actual learning comes from building confidence.......the cheap stuff causes frustrations and more time dealing with self doubt, when really the cheap equipment is 90% of the time the real culprit.........and you end up spending more money and time getting further away from the actual learning process.
Pick your poison........it's really depends where/how one wants to land (in one piece) at the end of the day........;)
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1/1 Photo of Cooking Light's Turkey Mini Meatloaves
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From the April 2007 issue of Cooking Light magazine. The recipe can easily be doubled to feed 6 (increasing the baking time to 45-50 minutes).
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Make this season merry, bright and manageable with our easy ideas.


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How to Find Your Calling (And Why Most People Get This Wrong)
By Jeff Goins
August 27, 2013
Jeff Goins is an author who lives in Nashville. He blogs regularly at goinswriter.com. You can download his free eBook, Finding Your Calling, on Noisetrade.
It never fails. Every week someone asks me what the "secret" is to doing work you love, to finding your purpose. They think because I work for myself that somehow I've got it all figured out, that I set a goal and made it happen—no problems or bumps along the way.
But the truth is, finding your calling is a process full of tensions to be managed. And it's just as much about responding to the signs God is trying to reveal to you as it is about taking action.
As Christians, we're told constantly that we were created with a purpose. And it's true, you were made to do good works, born to leave a legacy. The events of your life are directly related to your understanding of this. And whether you believe it or not, you're living a story. Whether it's worth telling is up to you.
So how do you find that purpose? If you're like many people who are striving to live meaningful and intentional lives, it will come in the form of what many refer to as "a calling."
Whether you believe it or not, you're living a story. Whether it's worth telling or not is up to you.
Two camps
There are two camps when it comes to this idea of calling:
1. "The need is the call."
Look around and you'll see a world in need. Can you help those needs? Great. This camp claims that if you can see a way to help, that's your calling. If there is some good you can do, then you have a responsibility to do it.
As my dad says to cars that remain parked in an intersection after the light has turned green, "What're you looking for—an engraved invitation?!"
2. "Pursue your passion."
Your heart knows what you were made to do, claims the second camp. You can trust your heart. Once you submit to your passion, you will begin to find your purpose.
Howard Thurman once said, "Don't ask yourself what the world needs. Ask yourself what makes you come alive and then go do that. Because what the world needs is people who have come alive."
But unfortunately, both of these common camps are tragically flawed.
The first leads to a passionless existence, in which you only pursue things out of obligation. The second is equally dangerous, as you can aimlessly wander from one thrill-seeking adventure to the next without ever committing to anything.
The reality is we have to learn to live in the tension between what makes us come alive and what resonates with others.
A practical solution
One of the trickiest parts of finding your calling is understanding the importance of what my former boss calls your "voice."
You might think of this as your unique contribution to the world, the things that you are especially gifted at. What can you do that nobody else can do?
This is your voice. Finding it involves a thoughtful combination of your own skills, the world's need for those skills, and your own desire.
So how do you do this, practically?
First, identify your core competencies. What is it that people are constantly complimenting you about? Make a list, if you need to organize your thoughts.
Second, look at the needs around you. If you're an entrepreneur, this might mean finding a market before you create your product. Or if you're called to be a missionary, maybe it means first finding the people you want to reach before spending years in training. The point is, instead of planning for the sake of having a plan, find people you can help right now and then plan around that more immediate, practical need.
Third, think about what you love doing. What really gets you excited about life? What gets your blood boiling? Make a list of the things that you do in your free time, when nobody is watching, and consider whether or not there may be something deeper to that desire.
Now, put all three of these together. Draw a Venn diagram if it helps. The intersection of your own skills, needs of the world, and what you love is a good place to start exploring your calling.
I'm not saying this is a flawless method, but it's better than most places to begin. Find a few ways to do something that meets those three fields. Try a few things out and see what happens. Is there fruit? Do you enjoy the work? Is it sustainable (i.e. can you get paid to do it?)
Like many things in life, finding your calling is a paradox.
If the answer to all of the above questions is "yes" and you feel peace in your heart, then you're in a good place. Keep trying things and trusting the results.
Learning to live in the tension
This isn't hocus pocus (but it sure ain't science, either). So many people wait for their calling. They complain about their lives, lamenting that God hasn't shown them the path yet. Others live agnostically, as if everything depends on them. Neither of these is particularly fulfilling.
What does seem true is that we have a choice. Not to make our lives awesome or dull, but to choose to courageously follow the path ahead of us or not. At times, it will feel like everything is riding on you, but it's not. At others, it will feel as if you don't have to do any work and can just submit to the process; that is also not true.
Like many things in life, finding your calling is a paradox. It's a mixture of need, passion, and skill—you can embrace this or ignore it. Good luck.
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Top Comments
I've never found a better or more truer thought on calling than this one by Frederick Buechner: "The place God calls you to is the place where your deep gladness and the world's deep hunger meet."
16 Comments
So how does this fit with the actually available jobs? Should we assume that the folks who stock the shelves at retail stores so that you can pick out what you want are only doing this as a temporary way-station on their way to fulfilling their real vocation, or is there some Venn diagram we can write that leads that individual to aim at stocking shelves for a living? Ditto for the people that cook and serve your food at fast food restaurants.
And where does pay fit in with all this, since some ministries (like being a stay-at-home mother) don't directly pay at all while plenty of other lines-of-work pay tremendously poorly even though they're essential to our way of life (like those shelf-stockers and fast food workers)?
I think we're much better off going with the idea that we should live our lives in a manner appropriate to those who live with God, and completely drop the idea that we're supposed to leave a legacy for those who come after us. And to hell with all the ego-stroking words about passion and needs we've clung to to make ourselves feel important.
Does knowing "your calling" involve getting to know God, reading/studying His Word? Walking with Him and growing a prayer life? Or does it involve Mat 28:19-20? Can you really rely on God's will in a Venn Diagram?
Jeff's article is a reasonable Calling 101 - suitable for those who've seldom thought about 'calling' before. Jeff's Venn Diagram of intersections of talent, passion, and need of the world is spot on. The definitive description of calling I believe comes from Os Guinness: "Calling is the truth that God calls us to himself so decisively that everything we do, everything we have, everything we are invested with a special devotion and dynamism lived out as a response to his summons and service." The leading pioneer on 'calling' is Valerie Myers. Here's an informative article that sheds deeper insight into calling, if you're interested: http://paulsohn.org/interview-with-valerie-myers-conversations-about-cal...
pleasantly surprised to find Jeff Goins here. :)
I've never found a better or more truer thought on calling than this one by Frederick Buechner: "The place God calls you to is the place where your deep gladness and the world's deep hunger meet."


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The Cosmetology program covers the basic knowledge and skills required to become an entry-level Cosmetologist and prepares students to sit for appropriate licensure exams. Students complete coursework in all facets of hairstyling including color, cut and chemical services. The program also provides courses in skin care and nail technology. This program is now being offered in English and Spanish.
Call us today at 888-387-5260 or contact us and we'll send you more information.
Hairdressers, hairstylists, and cosmetologists offer a wide range of beauty services, such as shampooing, cutting, coloring, and styling of hair. They may advise clients on how to care for their hair at home. In addition, cosmetologists may be trained to give manicures, pedicures, and scalp and facial treatments; provide makeup analysis; and clean and style wigs and hairpieces.
Overall employment of barbers, cosmetologists, and other personal appearance workers is projected to grow much faster than the average for all occupations. Opportunities for entry-level workers should be favorable, while job candidates at high-end establishments will face keen competition.
Get started on your cosmetology career today!
West Hartford, CT— On Friday, October 10th, 2014, American Institute presented Andy Fleischmann, President and CEO of Nutmeg Big Brothers Big Sisters, with a check for $10,000. The funds will be shared among each of the local Big Brothers Big Sisters agencies where American Institute schools are located, in addition to supporting the national organization, […]
September 17th, 2014, All Campuses: On September 17, 1787, the 39 delegates to the Constitutional Convention met for the last time to sign the document they had created. Every year on this day, we celebrate the document that solidified the birth of this great country: The Constitution. It is the oldest and shortest written Constitution […]


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Dying To Stop is a documentary about substance abuse and state-provided assistance to addicts in South Africa.


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Wild Cherry Blossom Rice Buff
Penetrating nutrients in rice bran is essential to Japan's long tradition in keeping the body smooth and soft.
By red flower
$23.95 $19.16 20% off
Size: 57g/2 oz
Penetrating nutrients in rice bran is essential to Japan's long tradition in keeping the body smooth and soft.
More about this product
The oil from the bran leaves skin replenished and supple. It is one of the few forms of gentle exfoliation that can also trigger moisture in the skin. This nutritive blend of rice bran, cherry blossom and wild cherry bark extract brings healthy minerals and softness to the skin. Rice bran is a treasured humectant used for its high vitamin E content, intensely softening fatty acids and its natural anti-oxidizing properties. The softening effects of rice bran are enhanced with cherry blossom to hydrate and tone, wild cherry bark to calm and soothe, and silk extract to renew the skin.
Average rating: 3 out of 5 hearts
By Britt on April 29, 2014
This was an interesting sample, but I would not purchase this product. I used it once in the bath and it created a milky liquid, the scent of which I was indifferent to. I hung it up to dry as directed and when I tried to use it again several days later, the contents had hardened inside the cloth bag, and even after letting it sit in the tub awhile, it never softened and actually tore the cloth bag when I gently tried to manipulate it. I would definitely not recommend this product, and certainly not for more than one use.
By Erin on April 28, 2013
Least fave component of the Japan set.
This one didn't do much for me. The scent was underwhelming compared to the rest of the Japan set, and it didn't do anything special for my skin.
By Y on July 13, 2013
Lovely fragrance
This smelled absolutely wonderful. I could smell it the moment I opened my package from Saffron. It's a different kind of exfoliator than what I'm used to.
By C on July 25, 2013
Amazing smell
I ADORE the scent. It is absolutely amazing. Left the skin sort and smooth. The entire Japan set from red flower is great, but I think this product has the most intoxicating smell.
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Directions for use
Soak cloth bag in warm water until rice mixture is completely saturated. Gently pat over skin, releasing the silky liquid while using the bag to softly buff. Let bag hang from skin to dry.
Rice Bran (Organic Oryza Sativa), Aloe Vera (Aloe Barbadensis) Extract, Sea Algae Extract, Hydrolyzed Silk, Cherry Blossom (Prunus Serotina) Oil, Wild Cherry Bark (Prunus Serotina), Rose (Rosa Damascena) Oil, Jasmine (Jasminum Sambac) Oil


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Search results
Alibaba founder Jack Ma conciliatory over missed Hong Kong listing16 Sep 2014 | 00:55
A look inside Weibo's office in Beijing18 Apr 2014 | 01:03
Twitter can't rest on laurels despite successful IPO: analyst08 Nov 2013 | 01:39
Search results
Business - Banking & Finance - LISTINGS
Huishang Bank targets US$1b IPO in Hong Kong
Posted Jun 07th 2013, 12:00am by Kwong Man-ki
... Kwong Man-ki in Beijing email@example.com As A-share listings market remains closed, mainland lender turns to Hong Kong Huishang Bank targets US$1b IPO in HK Huishang Bank has joined the queue of companies seeking an initial public offering (IPO) in Hong Kong while the gate for listing in the A-share market remains closed. The Hefei, Anhui province-based bank has invited ...http://www.scmp.com/business/banking-finance/article/1255167/huishang-bank-targets-us1b-ipo-hong-kong
Business - Banking & Finance - BANKING
Star BofA Merrill Lynch analyst sacked after Hong Kong IPO is pulled
Posted Jun 14th 2013, 12:00am by George Chen
... George Chen email@example.com Top-rated researcher at Bank of America Merrill Lynch asked firm eyeing US$150m share offer 'challenging' questions on profitability Analyst sacked after IPO is pulled A top-rated analyst has been axed by Bank of America Merrill Lynch from its Hong Kong health care and pharmaceuticals research team after a US$150 million share deal ...http://www.scmp.com/business/banking-finance/article/1260263/star-analyst-sacked-after-hong-kong-ipo-pulled
Business - Money - IPO FOCUS
Sinopec Engineering's Hong Kong IPO to aid overseas growth
Posted May 09th 2013, 12:00am by Ray Chan
... The listing of Sinopec Engineering, a construction unit of China's largest oil refiner, China Petrochemical (Sinopec Group), will allow investors to gain exposure to the high-growth but risky overseas coal-chemical industry. ...http://www.scmp.com/business/money/markets-investing/article/1233117/sinopec-engineerings-hong-kong-ipo-comes-firm
Business - Banking & Finance - LISTINGS
Signs of new life in I.P.O. market
Posted Apr 05th 2013, 12:00am by Ray Chan
... in I.P.O. market Hong Kong's dismal listings market has shown signs of a nascent recovery with some municipal-level mainland lenders and brokerage houses signalling they will retry offerings ... substantially slashed their original IPO size to attractive valuations." State-controlled China Galaxy Securities, the country's seventh-biggest brokerage firm by assets, will seek approval ...http://www.scmp.com/business/banking-finance/article/1207234/signs-new-life-ipo-market
Business - Money - IPOS
Outdated rule on lock-ups is one reason why Malaysia's IPOs outstrip Hong Kong's
Posted Oct 29th 2012, 12:00am by Philippe Espinasse
... Philippe Espinasse firstname.lastname@example.com How lock-ups put shackles on listings Everyone knows that Hong Kong's IPO market is going through tough times. New deals are rare, depriving ... issuance. To understand this point, it's helpful to compare Hong Kong's new listings with Malaysia's. In the year to date the Kuala Lumpur exchange has been the most active for IPO ...http://www.scmp.com/business/money/markets-investing/article/1070474/outdated-rule-lock-ups-one-reason-why-malaysias
Business - Money - IPO
There is life in the IPO
Posted Dec 31st 2012, 12:00am by Philippe Espinasse
... Philippe Espinasse email@example.com Spurned IPOs may be set for a small resurgence Like an endangered species clinging on to the last remnants of its natural habitat, the Hong Kong ... investors, like many around the world, bunkered down, piling into bonds but largely spurning stocks and, in particular, IPOs. But there are signs of a turnaround. People's Insurance Co (Group) ...http://www.scmp.com/business/money/markets-investing/article/1114475/there-life-ipo
Business - Money - IPO FOCUS
Time Watch signals mainland intent with IPO
Posted Jan 24th 2013, 12:00am by Ray Chan
... Ray Chan firstname.lastname@example.com Manufacturer and retailer plans to tap into China's rising middle-class market by opening 38 branded stores in first-tier cities by 2015 Time Watch signals intent with float The initial public offering of Time Watch Inves ...http://www.scmp.com/business/money/markets-investing/article/1134677/time-watch-signals-mainland-intent-ipo
Business - Money - REFORM
After Citic, who's next among Chinese state firms to take their mega deals to Hong Kong?
Posted Apr 02nd 2014, 03:34pm by George Chen, Sandy Li
... Investors are keenly watching for the next state-owned enterprise to follow in the wake of Citic's ground-breaking restructuring, in which Citic Pacific will mount a US$36 billion reverse takeover of its parent. ...http://www.scmp.com/business/china-business/article/1463151/after-citic-whos-next
Business - Banking & Finance - LISTINGS
Xinchen China on funding quest to ramp up output
Posted Feb 28th 2013, 12:00am by JEANNY YU AND RAY CHAN
... Xinchen China Power, a manufacturer of light-duty petrol and diesel engines, plans to raise US$113 million through a Hong Kong initial public offering to expand its production capacity. ...http://www.scmp.com/business/banking-finance/article/1160731/xinchen-china-funding-quest-ramp-output
Business - China Business - LISTINGS
China Machinery Engineering gets wheels rolling on IPO
Posted Dec 11th 2012, 12:00am by Ray Chan
... Ray Chan email@example.com Engineering group gets wheels rolling on IPO China Machinery Engineering, a state-controlled engineering contractor in the power sector, plans to kick off a roadshow today in an attempt to raise about US$380 million through a Hong Kong listing. The Beijing-based company is selling 718 million shares in an indicative range of between HK$4.10 and HK$5.40 ...http://www.scmp.com/business/china-business/article/1102556/china-machinery-engineering-gets-wheels-rolling-ipo
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On September's two middle Wednesdays, American agriculture's soft hands and hard hands – its lobbyists and farmers – brought their 2007 farm bill shopping lists to the House Agriculture Committee.
Even before the ink had dried on last week's column – a detailed report that, at least to me, made an ironclad case not to raid the Conservation Reserve Program to fuel the anticipated ethanol boom – members of the House Agriculture Committee were listening to testimony that urged a raid on the program to fuel the ethanol boom.
Drop a pebble in the ag policy pond and the resulting ripples seem to rush over many farmers' self-interest.
Farmers and ranchers live in an ocean of numbers. And like the tide, the numbers – pigs-per-litter, gain-per-pound, bushels-per-acre, dollars-per-bushel – can't be held back; they keep coming and keep adding to our nation's food story.
Farmers and ranchers live in an ocean of numbers. And like the tide, the numbers – pigs-per-litter, gain-per-pound, bushels-per-acre, dollars-per-bushel – can't be held back; they keep coming and keep adding to our nation's food story.
The glowing orange tops of two nearby maples are the first clear announcement that change, despite the day's drilling heat and shirt-soaking humidity, is coming.
August is the month public officials traditionally use your tax dollars to travel to gather information, ideas and frequent flier miles they claim will help them serve you better.
Do you know where your thousands – and on a national scale, hundreds of millions – of federally-mandated, non-refundable checkoff dollars go? It's a question Bobby King, policy director of Minnesota's Land Stewardship Project, asked when he viewed advertisements that attacked "anti-livestock activist groups" in the state on Minneapolis' powerhouse WCCO television station earlier this year.
While American taxpayers await an accounting on the billions sent to the Gulf Coast to clean up Katrina's devastation, USDA already knows the tab for four emergency programs hastily designed "to further reduce stress on the grain transportation system" caused by the storm.
Unlike Mark Twain's quip upon reading his obituary, my early July "RIP Doha" column was neither premature nor exaggerated.
July has been a tough month for farmers and ranchers in The Washington Post. On July 2 and again July 18, The Post published lengthy investigative pieces on the enormous cost, wanton waste, and built-in silliness of today's federal farm programs.
The biggest non-news news of the yet-young summer arrived July 1 when the Doha Development Round of World Trade Organization talks melted into a muddy puddle of recriminations as the trade yakkers in Geneva failed to even begin their "last ditch" effort to save the troubled talks.
Outside of accuracy, honesty and tight prose, the rules established (way back in May 1993) for these 700-word weekly adventures were few.
A month ago, Fred Kirschenmann, distinguished fellow for the Leopold Center for Sustainable Agriculture at Iowa State University, preached to the preachers of the Northern Plains Conference of the United Church of Christ in Bismarck.
Three years ago come July 1, 70 percent or so of American dairy farmers began taxing themselves to fund a program the industry dubbed Cooperatives Working Together, or CWT.
When the Senate confirmed Susan C. Schwab as the Bush Administration's Trade Representative June 8 – the second trade rep in just 13 months – it did so by voice vote, an uncommon occurrence for the usually-on-the-record body.
Former Secretary of Agriculture Ann Veneman couldn't stop for a cup of coffee in farm and ranch country without waxing romantically on how "1 in 4 acres of American farm production is exported.
Sometime in the early summer of 1965 I migrated from my mother's hot kitchen and the family's enormous garden to our farm's sweltering hayfields and crowded milking parlor.
America's food industry, like the nation's church leaders, spent much of May wringing its hands over, by all accounts, pieces of poorly written, poorly acted fiction.
When biofuel promoters begin to extol the virtues of ethanol, it's sometimes difficult to determine if their excitement is powered by corn-based fuel or corn-based liquor.


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Used Pizza
Am I the only one who, from time to time, orders a regular neopolitan pie to go, arrives at the pizza place in ten minutes and is given a pizza which was cold, old looking, obviously sitting in the pizzeria for a while and obviously intended for another party who never picked it up. Is this an accepted and/or prevalent practice in pizzerias? Are workers instructed to do this? And,,,,,,how do such pizzerias stay in business? And....finally have any of you confronted the pizzeria owners and/or workers about this practice instead of just not going there anymore?
Great title. "Used Pizza". It's been sitting around forever and is old.It's also used. I wouldn't go back.
I've never had that happen. Ever. And why wouldn't one speak up immediately if there's any problem?
The only times I've seen this is in places that also sell slices. When the pie on the shelf is getting old and slices are not moving they may throw it in the oven to refresh and try to palm it off on a takeout order.
Knowing this from my college days, 40+ years ago, working in a pizza joint I never would order a mozzarella pie to go from a place that sells slices......................
No. It would be pretty obvious, if the bottom of the box wasn't hot, no? Sometimes when I arrive to pick up my order, if it is near closing time, they will ask if in addition I would like an orphaned pizza or leftover slices at half price. If I have room in the freezer, it's "carpe deep-dish"! (They're thin-crust; I couldn't resist the pun.)
re: westsidegal
I see TWO problems...
Either find a new pizzeria or be willing to ask for and wait for a new one.
I would just find a new place...who knows what other corners they are cutting
Never seen it, never heard of it happening. If it did happen to me I would get quite loud and vociferous with the store, and the whole neighborhood association would know. A relatively new business in the area pulled a stunt recently. Not a restaurant. It was published in the neighborhood association newsletter and facebook group. They were warned, pulled the stunt once more, and were out of business within a few weeks. We have a pretty tight suburban neighborhood and facebook has done wonders. But it would never happen with our local pizza place, ever. They are like family to our neighborhood.


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The visionary, Italy-born architect and founder of the conceptual town called Arcosanti near Cordes Junction turns the big 9-0 with this celebration, featuring the unveiling of the new design for Paolo's Soleri Bridge at the Scottsdale Waterfront, photo-ops with Soleri, and a continental breakfast. Park in the Nordstrom garage.
Sun., June 21, 7 a.m., 2009


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Sure, two high-school girls can make a "Chonga Song" with an old PC and a USB mic, and go viral. But there's still nothing like a professionally recorded song produced with quality gear and a dedicated engineer in an acoustically sound environment. Miami's great musical history is proof. Outside of ... More >>
Plenty of people were superpsyched to see Adventure Club's Christian Srigley and Leighton James perform at Ultra Music Festival 2014. These two Canadian guys are veterans of the EDM festival; they're so involved, they even did Ultra Korea. Srigley and James were ready to rage on the stage when we ... More >>
Nothing ruins your Friday like realizing it's only Monday... Now after you've come to terms with your rude awakening, take a seat on your black office chair, and check out Crossfade's pick for the five best concerts this week. When you've got JT's "Suit & Tie" and other shows to look forward to, y ... More >>
Tegan & Sara2010 Honda Civic Tour presents: Paramore, Tegan & Sara, New Found Glory, KadawathaSaturday, September 4, 2010Bayfront Park AmphitheaterBetter than: (I'm making a prediction here, but) the upcoming 2010 MTV Video Music Awards on September 12th. The ReviewSo it's ap ... More >>
The Free Credit Report band is out, and a new act will be the face of Free Credit Score.It's no surprise, but when we announced this past May that the Free Credit Report (dot-com) band was kaput, people had some pretty strong reactions. What is a surprise, though, is that some of those strong rea ... More >>
photo by Ryan RussellScore cheapo tickets to see Paramore headline the Honda Civic Tour in Miami. Here's some more Live Nation ticketing news. As we told you at the beginning of the month, the concert promotion juggernaut has, in June, been offering no-service-fee tickets for all of its amphithe ... More >>
CC by 2.0, via lanchutt on FlickrSwoon over Adam Levine? Act fast and do it for no fee. One of the worst thing about being a devoted live music fan is the sticker shock that comes when a ticket's final price is totaled up. A ticket that's about $20 can end up as much as $40 sometimes when you lum ... More >>
Photo by Matt GraysonNew Found GloryFireworks, hellogoodbye, Saves the Day, and New Found GloryRevolution, Fort LauderdaleTuesday, February 9, 2010Better Than: Being forced to actually eat sardines, while packed like them?The Review:If last night's New Found Glory show at Revolution -- its second ... More >>
Photo by Matt GraysonNew Found Glory's 2000 self-titled second album was what really catapulted the Coral Springs quartet into bona fide national stardom. Released before "emo" had become a dirty word, the mood of the album's boisterous but sensitive pop-punk was perfectly encapsulated on its cov ... More >>
Click to read parts one and two of this list.Radioboxer Radio Drama myspace.com/radioboxerbandRadioboxer, which formed right here in the Magic City from the remnants of a previous incarnation called Falaz, has earned a strong fanbase around town thanks to their honesty and sincerity. An ... More >>
The holiday season is already in full swing which means events around South Florida aren't hard to come by. So in case you were out shopping for ungrateful relatives, here is what you missed over the weekend:Y100 Jingle Ball 2009 at BankAtlantic CenterPhoto by Sayre BermanShakira, Jordin Sparks, ... More >>
Here are a few randomly selected recommendations among the many acts playing the Miami Music Festival. Visit MiamiMusicFestival.org for individual venue details. Many of these funky-named places you've never heard of are subdivisions of real venues, with made-up names just for festival pur ... More >>
If you missed it last week, please read our post last week on Help Mend a Heart, the social network effort to help save the life of Maureen Waters. After battling a flu for several days, the day after Thanksgiving, she was rushed to the hospital with what turned out to be a serious heart infectio ... More >>
If you've lived in South Florida for any length of time, chances are, there are fewer than six degrees of separation between you and the tight-knit Pundik family. Of the three creative Pundik kids, Jordan is the singer for New Found Glory (and is currently on tour with his friends in Dashboard Co ... More >>
The upcoming national outing headlined by New Found Glory and Dashboard Confessional was going to be a showcase of '90s Broward and Palm Beach County heroes made good. But this past Friday, Dashboard had to suddenly drop off the tour, which was scheduled to land locally at Pompano Beach Amphithea ... More >>
Summer is finally over! The insufferable heat finally broke this weekend and its officially fall in South Florida. Yes, we didn't turn on our AC all weekend and we couldn't be more excited. So we hope you enjoyed the reason why we all moved here in the first place.We're sure you didn't stay in this ... More >>
Emo/Alternative rockers Dashboard Confessional are slated to release their sixth album "After the Ending" on November 10 and will be playing Pompano Beach Amphitheater a couple weeks later. If you're in the mood for heart wrenching Chris Carrabba penned songs, and New Found Glory, Never Shout Nev ... More >>
photo by Ian WitlenTo view a slideshow of photos from the event, click here.CP Rocks Presents: Can I Say-Sunday II With Tongues of the Heartworm and AnchormanCinema Paradiso, Fort LauderdaleSunday, August 30, 2009Better Than: An hour-long sermon The Review:This past Sunday marked the second insta ... More >>
Clockwise, L-R: Producer Cyrus of NFG, engineer Ryan of Capsule, Oren of Jacobs Ladder (mostly hidden), Sammy of Jacobs LadderI stopped by the old standby Dungeon recording studio in North Miami Beach last week to visit local trio Jacobs Ladder, who were working steadily and meticulously on a new ... More >>
Last week I dropped in on Jacobs Ladder at the Dungeon recording studio in North Miami Beach, where they were working on a new EP. (Pictures and video are coming later this week.) The producer on the project is Cyrus Bolooki, drummer of Coral Springs' biggest pop-punk exports, New Found Glory. Alt ... More >>
The local progressive/rock/whatever trio Jacob's Ladder just does not stop. The last time we checked in with these 23-year-olds, just this past May, they were debuting some new tracks and setting off on a national tour through New England and the South. Well, one national summer tour is not enoug ... More >>
Miami Beach indie trio sets out on its second national tour in two months.
South Florida darlings and pop punk powerhouse New Found Glory is coming back home tonight. NFG is touring in support of their new album "Not Without A Fight", which is receiving slightly above average reviews on Metacritic. Bayside and Set Your Goals are opening for NFG, so get ready to overd ... More >>
After 12 years, South Florida's best pop-punk export is still going strong.
New Found Glory has announced an April 14 date at Revolution in support of the band's upcoming album, Not Without a Fight. Slated for release on March 10, the disc is NFG's sixth studio release, and its first on Epitaph records. The South Florida natives have been blasting out their brand of s ... More >>
Queen of the Fiddler Records empire, Amy Fleisher, comes back to the music biz.
Theyre more than one-hit wonders.
Eisley Thursday, April 17, 2008 Culture Room Better than: Taking three xanax and drinking a handle of Jack. If you're anywhere near exhausted, don't even think about going to an Eisley show. This all-in-the-family Texas-born quintet (four sisters and their cousin, all with the last name DuPree ... More >>
Twenty years of identity crisis.
Vans Warped Tour July 21st, 2007 Bicentennial Park 11:00 a.m. Warped Tour is celebrating its 13th birthday this year. The main stages have been appropriately renamed to "Lucky" and "13" for the occasion. South Florida did hit some bad luck, though, with bands such as Alkaline Trio, Mxpx ... More >>
Our suggestions for navigating the 13th installment of the Vans Warped Tour
It's sweltering outside, but there's still music worth hearing
Just Making Bagels
Recoil Lava
What's worth seeing at the tenth-anniversary Vans Warped tour? Here are a few suggestions
Passengers got on and off, but Pompano's Further Seems Forever finally arrives
The Doppler Effect "Opposite Day"
Ska-punk favorites Going Nowhere play one last show before upgrading to a new sound
Punk politics and shady business deals leave indie label boss John Wylie wiser
Nonpoint studies metal hard
New Found Glory is ready to play your total request live


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We're getting closer to lift-off! The ZBrush Summit is only 14 days away! Register today to see LIVE artist demos, industry panel discussions, interviews and a sneak peek of the latest version of ZBrush. Remember, the ZBrush Summit is a FREE event happening LIVE and STREAMING around the globe. See you all soon!!!
Archive for the 'Jewelry Design' Category
The second in a series of anatomical reference models from 3DTotal has been successfully crowd funded via Kickstarter. You can still put your best foot forward and support the cause with a contribution and walk away with some cool stuff. Be sure to visit the 3D Total website for more CG art, tutorials and articles than you can shake a leg at.
In preparation for this summer's Trojan Horse Was A Unicorn festival happening in Portugal, ZBsee member CarlosVidal "cooks up" a little crab meat to keep our appetites in check. Take a look at how Dynamesh, ZRemesher and UV Master come together to help finalize his designs. Visit CarlosVidal's user gallery for more beach ready digital sculpting.
Recently, the Mold 3D crew held a 3D printing workshop. If your looking to take your latest creation from screen to print, you should check out their offerings. Be sure to stay current with the latest in industrial design and 3D rapid prototyping, by keeping up with our latest video tutorials. We've been busy updating a series of videos covering everything you'll need to design and build your very own industrial design projects. Visit ZBSee today and start interacting with other ZBrushers from around the world.
We're back with another automotive inspired "digital clay" breakdown. This time, the CarStylus team presents everything you'll need to create wheel designs inside ZBrush. Whether you're into rat-rods, muscle cars or high output prototype racers, this video should help you burn serious amounts of digital rubber! If you are looking for more industrial design tutorials, be sure to check out our latest video series on designing a futuristic helmet. We've produced over 25 video tutorials inside ZClassroom to help you take your industrial designs to the next level.
Alex Alverez just wrapped production on two DVD tutorials featuring everything you'll need to build your own "brave new worlds". That's right, this is your chance to dive in with a true digital art pioneer for over 10 hours of focused learning. The DVD's titled, "Creating Terrains with Satellite Data, Volume 1 and Volume 2″ are available now through the Gnomon Workshop. Check out Alex's process and see how ZBrush is playing a role in helping him get the job done. The Gnomon Workshop provides high-end digital art training covering everything from drawing to sophisticated 3D modeling techniques.
Chris Thackrey shifts and morphs digital clay to showcase the potential for architectural and furniture design use inside ZBrush. Visit Flying Architecture for more incredible design concepts from around the world. Be sure to fill your head's with more industrial design tutorials by visiting our latest series of videos. Navigate to ZClassroom today to take your digital sculpting skills further. Whether your looking for basic videos or more dedicated feartures, ZClassroom has what you need to maximize your Zbrush experience.
ZBSee member Aidin Salsabili recently shared news about an Iranian virtual museum exhibit. Check out Aidin's videos for a behind the scenes look at the process used to create these priceless artifacts. Aidin's user gallery will keep you busy exploring countless artifacts recreated using ZBrush.
Angus J Law recently posted this interesting look at ZBrush in the manufacturing world. You never know what you'll find inside the ZBSee experience. His thread features a four step process that covers sculpting, CNC programming, tool and die work and finally, the addition of the finished piece to the crocodile hand bag. Check out his user gallery for more unexpected product designs. Angus is a London based ZBrusher and from the looks of it, he's getting his "bling" on.


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If you are looking for fashion accessories for a big out night or just because in the Grantham area then Grantham People can help! We list all of the local fashion accessory shops in the the area, read the reviews from local users.
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Unit 4 Isaac Newton Centre
102 Alma Park Road
Claim a free mini first aid kit with any course booked on our website www.medlearntraining.co.uk
Terms: One per booking, Not valid with any other offer, Booking must be made online
Contact: 01522775565
Valid until: Wednesday, December 31 2014
Including kitoko oil treatment (worth £27.95) and kitoko body cream ( worth £9.95) for £32.95!!
Contact: 01522527751
Valid until: Friday, December 12 2014


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Product Description
Brake Combination Valve for 1965-1973 Mustangs with Front Disc and Rear Drum Brakes.This combination valve combines the distribution block and the proportioning valve into one unit. This is designed to be used with front disc brakes and rear drum brakes.
*This is not a direct factory replacement for an original distribution block and minor brake line modifications may be necessary during installation.
*Includes a brake light switch that uses a GM style plug. Plug with pigtail is available separately.
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