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Rudy's Pub and Restaurant
- Address:
1650 Johnson st.
Hollywood, FL 33020Neighborhood:
- Cuisine:
AmericanPrice: $30 and under
Rudy's Pub and Restaurant
- Dining Style: Casual Dining
- Website: http://www.rudysofhollywood.com/
- Phone: (954) 927-6040 ext. 2
- Hours of Operation:
Saturday & Sunday: 8:00am - 12:00pm
Tuesday - Sunday: 11:30am - 5:00pm
Tuesday - Saturday: 5:00pm - 9:30pm
Closed Mondays
- Payment Options: AMEX,Diners Club,Discover,MasterCard,Visa
- Cuisine: American
- Dress Code: Casual Dress
- Accepts Walk-Ins: Yes
- Additional Details: Banquet/Private Rooms, Bar Dining, Bar/Lounge, Beer, Cocktails, Full Bar, Happy Hour, Non-Smoking Restaurant, Patio/Outdoor Dining, Smoking Area (patio only), Takeout, Wheelchair Access, Wine
- Private Party Facilities: Let Rudy's help you create a memorable event that will make your party an affair to remember! Our banquet facility seats up to 120 guests and offers a warm, yet sophisticated setting for your party or event. Our culinary creations are sure to please the most particular palate and our unique venue offers a captivating setting to serve as the perfect backdrop to your memorable event.
- Private Party Contact: Stacey Rudy 5084508405
A word from Rudy's Pub and Restaurant
Rudy's Pub & Restaurant is located at the beautiful and historical Hollywood Beach Golf Resort. We serve American inspired cuisine with warm hospitality in a spectacular setting. Our menus feature an array of savory dishes and desserts created by some of the most talented chefs in South Florida.Continued
Foodspotting photosSee all photos
Rudy's Pub and Restaurant reviews from OpenTable diners
1 review since July 31, 2014
- Food4Service4
- Ambiance4Noise LevelModerate
fit for foodies (1)good for groups (1)great for brunch (1)great for outdoor dining (1)hot spot (1)neighborhood gem (1)scenic view (1)special occasion (1)vibrant bar scene (1)Show More
- A TOP SPOT FOR FOOD AND TALKNEWYORKADined on 10/30/2014If your looking for a friendly bar, top food at a reasonable price, easy parking and excellent service, here it is! Joel and Stacey Rudy are owner operators that have taken an excellent golf course setting and turned it into a Hollywood gem.Special Features:I would recommend this to a friend.


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Im Justin ...Big Cleveland sports fan... I love playing sports and being active...love being a father to my beautiful 4 year old daughter..I know that having a daughter makes a lot of people think twice of getting involved, but she is my world and I hope one day to find that woman that will love her and I.
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22 • Massillon, OH • Man
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my daughter, sports, food, friends and family...
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Global warming, lunch, or your next vacation… it's all fair game.
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Town Square
Have a Happier Holiday!
Original post made by Donna Novitsky, Woodside School, on Nov 19, 2012
Yiftee's mission is to strengthen local communities by connecting local merchants and consumers in ways where both win. Over 100 shops and restaurants are offering Yiftees from San Carlos to Los Altos. Yiftee is going national in December.
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I Told My Mom She's Dying
By Chandrama Anderson | 11 comments | 2,396 views
Grab a Bowl of Heaven soon in Mountain View
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Quick Check List for UC Applications
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Fancy Fast and Fun!
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I live near Sunset
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This item is in the shop's backroom and cannot be purchased at this time.
If you are the shop owner, Sign In above to view this item.
Item ID: 883
Only 1 available. Don't miss out!
Quality Antiques, Collectibles, Jewelry & Fine Art
Free shipping on ALL jewelry items shipped in the U.S.


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On Dec. 3, 1984, the worst industrial accident in history unfolded in India. No punishment meted out has fit the immensity of the wrongdoing
With aviation fanatics keeping a close watch outside aircraft factories, little is secret
With Walmart workers promising their biggest strike, here's how to understand the action on Black Friday
How Anita Sarkeesian is trying to change the $25 billion video game industry
Subsidies from developers can lower interest rates to zero
Holiday gifts for every workstation in life, whether you're fetching coffee, announcing your IPO, or playing tennis all day
Researchers had access to a company database that tracked ideas submitted by employees over more than a year
A look at how business owners profiled in Bloomberg Businessweek are coping with the latest unrest
Getty Images
By Theo Francis
His Treasury Secretary choice, expected in a couple of weeks, will set the stage for later selections. The Cabinet "should signal the Administration's priorities and have highly credible people in key jobs," says a veteran of Democratic transitions. There will still be room, though, to reward key campaign advisers
©2014 Bloomberg L.P. All Rights Reserved. Made in NYC Ad Choices


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10 Minute (by Lee Hyori) - Hwang Ye Rin - Download MP3 music or MP4 video:
Watch Video OnlineDownload MP3 Download Video
Are you the owner of this convertable material and do you want to disable the conversion of your media on clip.dj? Then you can request a conversion block for this video.
Subscribe to Cartoon Hangover for more Bravest Warriors: http://www.youtube.com/subscription_center?add_user=cartoonhangover You asked for it, here it is! SU...
Our talented Miss M is a lovely and calm person, who stays always positive and cares for the group, just like a big Sister ♡ As the oldest, she has a more ol...
Song:10 Minutes Artist: Lee Hyori Album: Stylish Enjoy! *Have a request? Go to my channel or send it in a message. DISCLAIMER: This video is made to spread a...
Track 4 of 14 (or 16 for some editions) of Lee Hyori's debut album, Stylish.
from the show "The Last Audition of My Life" cr. daum.
No copyright infringement intended. All rights belong to sm entertainment.
10 minutes . 존박 . John Park 슈퍼스타 K2.
If you watch Family Outing Season 1, you'll know this song. Please rate, comment and subscribe.
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i don't own anything...just wanna share for all the fans out there cr: www.4-everlastings.com visit the forum for more BEG stuff ^^
Hey guys! clip.dj is an easy online tool to convert videos from YouTube, Dailymotion and Vimeo to high quality MP3 music or MP4 video files. Important: You must agree to our terms of service before using this web application! Have fun! ;)
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ABC Commercial Painting & Coatings
11 Reviews
"Paint exterior of house - stucco. Just hired ABC. Due to our schedule, they will begin work after July 12."
Serving Monterey Park, CA License: 939872
ABC Commercial Painting and Coatings has over 12 years experience serving Southern California and surrounding areas. Our services include residential and commercial painting, interior painting, exterior painting, specialty coatings, wall coverings, staining, plaster finishes, Venetian, Italian, Amer...
CertaPro Painters of Pasadena
2 Reviews
"Painted the trim, doors and windows. I love them, they are great. They finished on time and cleaned up nicely. The..."
Serving Monterey Park, CA License: 914886
CertaPro Painters is a full service residential and commercial painting contractor dedicated to providing the highest quality painting work with the best possible service to our customers. With CertaPro Painters, you get a quality experience that is unique in the painting business — and you get th...
Big C's Painting Co.
2 Reviews
"He does all types of painting. I have been doing business with Carl for about 8 years. He does really good work, is ..."
Serving Monterey Park, CA
Richard Stewart Painting
3 Reviews
"Painted a living room and dining room which both had earthquake damage -- and also a hallway and entryway that needed..."
Serving Monterey Park, CA License: 510600
My name is Richard Stewart and I have been Successfully painting commercial and residential buildings for over 25 years. I can guarantee excellent work, completed in a timely fashion and at a reasonable cost. We were honored to be awarded 2012 Best Small Business by the United Chambers of Commer...
MBM Painting
Serving Monterey Park, CA License: 913226
We at MBM Painting Pro go beyond what is expected. Satisfaction is guaranteed. All of our painting services and projects are performed with full preparation. You'll enjoy eye-appealing results! Property Type: Commercial Residential Industrial Interior Painting: Ceilings Walls Any Doors Windows C...
MD Build Group
Serving Monterey Park, CA
We strive to provide our clients with the confidence and satisfaction that comes with building a home of superior quality and value. Our proven track record means you will benefit from the expertise of our seasoned professional team. We understand that designing and building a home or remodeling an ...
When you have a painting problem in your Monterey Park home or business, choose a painter located in Monterey Park, CA.
By reading reviews posted by your neighbors, you can hire the Monterey Park California painter you want, and be assured of their professionalism.
By reading reviews posted by your neighbors, you can hire the Monterey Park California painter you want, and be assured of their professionalism.
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Monterey Park Cleaning services | Monterey Park Concrete contractors | Monterey Park Electricians | Monterey Park Exterminators | Monterey Park Flooring contractors | Monterey Park HVAC contractors | Monterey Park Plumbers | Monterey Park Remodeling contractors | Monterey Park Roofers | Monterey Park Tile contractors
Painters Near Monterey Park:
Montebello, CA Pico Rivera, CA South Pasadena, CA San Marino, CA El Monte, CA South El Monte, CA Rosemead, CA San Gabriel, CA Temple City, CA Alhambra, CA
US Census Information for Monterey Park, California
Population age 18 and older 49,337 Male population age 5-9 1,514 Male population age 55-59 1,970 Female population age 18 and older 26,047 Husband/wife family households 10,538


text:
- An ISBN is the 10 or 13 digit number, usually printed on the back of a book with a bar code, that serves as a unique identifier for the book.
- Searching by ISBN is the best way to search because it will get you the exact title and edition that you need.
- Many professors include the ISBN on their syllabi or in their course management system.
If you don't have the ISBN, try a title or author search.
Title search
- Enter all words in the title you are looking for. The search engine will try to find books that have all the words you entered in the title. Leave out words such as "a," "an," or "the."
- When including edition, use numeric values. For example, "1st edition" instead of "first edition."
Author search
- Enter all or part of the author name you are looking for.
- You do not need to enter a first name, but if there are a lot of books by authors with the same last name, it may help to narrow the results.
- You can enter the name in any order such as "John Smith" or "Smith John." Avoid using a comma since it has a special meaning in the search.
Keyword search
- You can search by keyword but this approach is not recommended as it will likely return a large set of results.
- If you want to search by keyword, try a combination of author and keyword. For example, "Warren Accounting" where "Warren" is the author and "Accounting" is the keyword.
To refine your results, use the filtering/sorting options
- Filter options include product type and discipline area. Sort options include alphabetical sort (ascending or descending) and copyright year (ascending or descending).
AUTHORS: Butler/Podnecky - ©2005
The Grammar Links series uses a communicative, theme-based approach to help students link grammar to the real world. Students benefit from comprehensive grammar coverage, a strong emphasis on formal versus informal language, and an abundance of contextualized, four-skills (reading, writing, speaking, and listening) practice exercises and activities.


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Ok, so it's Holiday times and you are probably wondering which cocktails to make for Thanksgiving, Xmas, Chanukah, Boxing Day and all those damn parties you're going to have between now and New Years Eve. 437 more words
Tags » Orange Bitters
The Moll Cocktail
We're back to the classic Savoy Cocktail Book for this one. I haven't been able to track down much of anything about the provenance of the Moll, but it presumably takes its name from the word for a gangster's girl (who often, herself, packed a piece) that was being popularized in the nascent… 158 more words
MxMo: Chalet & Golden Bough
After being somewhat delinquent last month, it's Mixology Monday time again! This month's theme is all about "shims" – low alcohol drinks – from Dinah over at… 550 more words
The Brown Cocktail and the Rosemary Cocktail
Both of these vintage cocktails come from The Old Waldorf-Astoria Bar Book. The Brown was purportedly named for a student from the university of the same name, while the Rosemary's provenance is explained somewhere else in the book other than with its recipe. 212 more words
The Oldest Living Confederate Widow
This drink is possibly the greatest version of a Gin Sour to ever exist. Ever. It's truly refreshing, so very dangerous and I want to drink them all year round! 141 more words
The Modernista
The Modernista is is Ted Haigh´s (aka Dr. Cocktail) name for the Modern Cocktail, sometimes called Modern Maid (as found in Vintage Spirits and Forgotten Cocktails… 55 more words
The Tailspin is another cocktail from the Death & Co Cocktail Book, this one from the Classic & Vintage section.
I realized while making it that it's a… 233 more words


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Olive R. Vieth
A memorial service will be held Saturday at 11 a.m. at the Lanham-Miller Funeral Home, Sparta, with Reverend Richard Abernathy officiating. Burial will be in the Woodlawn Cemetery, Sparta. Family and friends are invited to call at the funeral home on Saturday from 10 a.m. until time of services. Online condolences may be offered at www.lanham-miller.com . The Lanham-Miller Funeral Home, Sparta is assisting the family with arrangements.
- Written by Bob Gabrielson
- Category: Obituaries
- Hits: 248


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Articles tagged "Kevin Burnett"
Dolphins Sink Raiders 34-14: Five Things We Learned
The suddenly resurgent Miami Dolphins have won 4 of their last 5 contests including Sundays beatdown of the Oakland Raiders. Philip Bijeau continues the punishment by burying you in a hole full o' facts. Yar!
Raiders at Dolphins: Preview Time!
Dolphins beat writer Philip Bijeau previews this weeks tilt between the Oakland Raiders and Miami Dolphins, while simultaneously learning to love himself. Join him in this journey of self discovery.
Quick Outs
- The Berger-Bowl Becomes the Bell Show For the Steeler's Win
- Chiefs @ Raiders Thursday Night Preview
- J.J. Watt And Demaryius Thomas Dominating The Competition
- NFC Rookies Making Big Impact In 2014 Season
- Keep The Faith: 20 Teams Since 1990 With Losing Record After Nine Games Have Made Playoffs
- Tony Romo Now 25-5 All Time In November
- Pro Football's Battlefield Heroes
- No Surprise: NFL Teams On Pace To Score Most Points In History
- 2014 NFL Season Player Props
- Vegas Win Totals For Each NFL Team
Team Pages


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The Leading eBooks Store Online
for Kindle Fire, Apple, Android, Nook, Kobo, PC, Mac, BlackBerry...
New to eBooks.com?Learn more
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Shattered DreamsThe Doubleday Religious Publishing Group 2012; US$ 16.99
If God loves me, why does life hurt so much? ?A new way to live is available to us,? writes widely respected author and counselor Larry Crabb, ?a way that leads to a joy-filled encounter with Christ, to a life-arousing community with others, and to a powerful transformation of our interior worlds that makes us more like Jesus.? You?ll see how God... more...
The Essential Guide to Catholic Prayer and the MassDK Publishing 2011; US$ 16.95
The Vatican-approved guide to opening up new connections to God. Today, more and more Catholics are looking to explore their spirituality in new ways: by trying meditation or contemplation, seeking to adapt monastic traditions to modern life, or seeking a deeper connection to Jesus through the Eucharist, giving rise to the growing popularity... more...
Just in Time! Prayers for Ordinary TimeAbingdon Press 2012; US$ 12.99
Ready-to-use prayers for public worship during Ordinary Time. more...
Greater DevotionalThe Doubleday Religious Publishing Group 2014; US$ 12.99
In Greater , Pastor Steven Furtick challenged us to dream bigger, start smaller, and ignite God?s vision for our lives. In this devotional designed for daily guidance, you?ll begin your journey toward the greater life God wants for you. � Over the next forty days of teaching, scripture readings, and prayer, your life will change. You?ll find the... more...
Why You Act the Way You DoTyndale House Publishers, Inc. 1998; US$ 7.99
Readers discover how temperament affects their work, emotions, spiritual life, and relationships and learn how to make improvements. more...
Every Man's BattleThe Doubleday Religious Publishing Group 2004; US$ 15.99
the challenge every man faces...the fight every man can win From the television to the Internet, print media to videos, men are constantly faced with the assault of sensual images. It is impossible to avoid such temptations...but, thankfully, not impossible to rise above them. Shattering the perception that men are unable to control their thought... more...
The Confessions of St. AugustineThe Floating Press 1921; US$ 3.95
The Confessions of St. Augustine is the collection of St. Augustine's thirteen autobiographical books, each singly known as Confessions . In these books he details his sinful youth, his conversion to Christianity, and the regrets he thereafter lives with of his previous convictions and action. It is an incredibly important work, both as the theological... more...
What's Really Holding You Back?The Doubleday Religious Publishing Group 2009; US$ 14.99
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The Powers That BeCrown Publishing Group 2010; US$ 14.95
In our fast-paced secular world, God and theology��are second-class citizens. Money, politics, sports, and science seem better suited to the��hard realities of our world. As the church steeple has been eclipsed by the skyscraper as the centerpiece of the urban landscape, so has the divine realm been set aside in favor of more immediate human experience.... more...


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Possible Duplicate:
Making variable from HTML-file work in PHP-file
I have another file (HTML-file) that passes an argument to this PHP-file. It does so I have checked it with "echo" and it throws back the same argument I wrote in the HTML-file, so so far, so good. The PHP-file looks like this.
$filepath = "/usr/sbin";
exec("ONE $search -command $filepath ");
fopen($filepath, "rw");
The command "ONE" which is a bash-script I wrote to do some "greps" in files takes one argument and that is "$search" which in deed is passed over to this PHP-file. And if I exchange "$search" to the actual word "searchword" it works like a charm. Why doesn't it accept "$search" as argument? It just seem to ignore it and throws back a blank page, but if I use "searchword" it gives back just what I want.


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Award recognizes Kenny's touring accomplishments.
Carrie Underwood has now broken the two million mark with her first CD Some Hearts, and in the process has set a new benchmark for debut artists.
Some Hearts is now the fastest-selling debut album in country history, and is also the quickest to be certified double platinum for its two million sales. More good news coming Carrie's wayher single "Jesus, Take the Wheel" is projected to hit No. 1 on the Billboard country charts. Plus, she's met with her agents about the possibility of some film work.
More News
Brantley Gilbert pulls off the night's surprise victory.
She also got a little encouragement from Miranda Lambert along the way.
How the demo for "Country Club" spurred on a great period of creativity for both artists.
Billy makes his statement via YouTube.
Country star opens up on "Entertainment Tonight."


text:
Town Square
Supervisor urges improvement in fire protection
Original post made on Dec 3, 2007
Read the full story here Web Link posted Monday, December 3, 2007, 2:13 PM
Comments (2)
a resident of Crescent Park
on Dec 3, 2007 at 7:49 pm
How can we improve our fire protection when the City Manager always wants to not open the foothills fire station during the fire season?
a resident of another community
on Dec 6, 2007 at 11:45 am
Tim. The Firefighters will not even stand up for themselfs..
Its a union thing.. Code of ethics. Denial...
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Grab a Bowl of Heaven soon in Mountain View
By Elena Kadvany | 0 comments | 2,823 views
Don't fund the rape culture at my alma mater
By Jessica T | 34 comments | 2,213 views
Quick Check List for UC Applications
By John Raftrey and Lori McCormick | 0 comments | 1,931 views
Campaign Endorsements: Behind the Curtain
By Douglas Moran | 10 comments | 1,033 views
Mothers, daughters, books, and boxes
By Sally Torbey | 4 comments | 982 views


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Manchester 65 Presents
Rebirth Brass Band @ Manchester 65, West Warwick RI
Manchester 65
65 Manchester St
West Warwick, RI, 02893
Doors 8:00 PM / Show 9:00 PM
This event is 18 and over
Watch & Listen
Simply put, The Rebirth Brass Band is a New Orleans institution. Formed in 1983 by the now infamous Frazier brothers, the band has evolved from playing the streets of the French Quarter to playing festivals and stages all over the world. Rebirth is committed to upholding the tradition of brass bands while at the same time incorporating modern music into their show. Their signature brand of heavy funk has not only won over several generations of music lovers, it has become the soundtrack to an entire city. In the wake of the sometimes-stringent competition amongst brass bands, Rebirth is the undisputed leader of the pack, and they show no signs of slowing down.
Brass band music is joyful, heart-pumping and it was born and bred in soul-saturated New Orleans. Rebirth takes brassy funk to the city's streets and clubs, doing second-line parades just about every Sunday and rocking regular gigs at night. But Rebirths reach is far beyond sweet-home New Orleans. Founded by tuba man and bandleader Phillip Frazier in 1983, Rebirth has toured the United States, Europe, and Africa. Frazier has compared brass music to gospel music saying "It's very spiritual because the same feeling you get listening to gospel music, that feeling hits you with our band. It hits you in the heart, makes you want get up and shout".
$20 Adv / $25 Day Of Show
18 To Enter / 21 To Drink - Positive ID Required
Upcoming Events
Manchester 65
Fri, November 28
Kait & the Best Buds, She Said That, NoMan
Sat, November 29
Benefit for Barbara Dreyer, Dead Girls Dont Say No, Get Naked, Shots Fired, Obscurus, Without Warning - The Ultimate Dokken Tribute, Sinners and Saints.
Fri, December 5
Loose Change (Grateful Dead tribute)
Sun, December 7
The Underground Bash: Vol 2, Jay Prophet, SakrOFFICIAL, NFG, Orphan, SCAMROCK, J2 NYCE, Cerberus, Slacker Kingz, R.I.C.S, Dope Natas
Sat, December 13
Getting Famous, Monkey Wrench, No Wisdom
Sun, December 14
RISA HOLIDAY SHOW, Jan Luby, Robin O'Herin, Kala Farnham, Bruce McDermott, Rich Eilbert, Rick Gottlieb, Dennis Caussade, Paul E. Bettencourt, Chris LaVancher, Ed McGuirl, Ray Fontenault
Fri, December 19
Eddy's Shoe (All Dead Night)
Sat, December 20
S.I.M. (Superior Industrial Mechanism)
Rebirth Brass Band @ Manchester 65, West Warwick RI
Saturday, July 27 · Doors 8:00 PM / Show 9:00 PM at Manchester 65


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Beatification for Alvaro del Portillo will take place in Madrid on September 27
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The successor of Saint Josemara Escrive will be beatified in Madrid, his native city, and where he met the founder of Opus Dei, and was ordained a priest. A...
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A dress for my niece for Christmas. BurdaStyle 04/2013 #116 bodice with a collar and full skirt, made in circus print fabric she chose and with contrast collar and waistband.
The details are al…
The bottom half of my December outfit. A high waisted skirt in green cotton drill. I used jeans button instead of buttons inside the waistband.
More details are on my blog…
A simple white tee for my December outfit. From the free Elise pattern from Fine Motor Skills.
The details are on my blog….
Fantastic! The patterns are great, go for it!
Thank you :) I love the colour.
Thanks! He loves them.
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text:
Climate change impact on development rates of the codling moth (Cydia pomonella L.) in the Wielkopolska region, Poland
ABSTRACT The main goal of this paper is to estimate how the observed and predicted climate changes may affect the development rates and emergence of the codling moth in the southern part of the Wielkopolska region in Poland. In order to simulate the future climate conditions one of the most frequently used A1B SRES scenarios and two different IPCC climate models (HadCM3 and GISS modelE) are considered. A daily weather generator (WGENK) was used to generate temperature values for present and future climate conditions (time horizons 2020-2040 and 2040-2060). Based on the generated data set, the degree-days values were then calculated and the emergence dates of the codling moth at key stages were estimated basing on the defined thresholds. Our analyses showed that the average air surface temperature in the Wielkopolska region may increase from 2.8°C (according to GISS modelE) even up to 3.3°C (HadCM3) in the period of 2040-2060. With the warming climate conditions the cumulated degree-days values may increase at a rate of about 142 DD per decade when the low temperature threshold (T ( low )) of 0°C is considered and 91 DD per decade when T ( low ) = 10°C. The key developmental stages of the codling moth may occur much earlier in the future climate conditions than currently, at a rate of about 3.8-6.8 days per decade, depending on the considered GCM model and the pest developmental stage. The fastest changes may be observed in the emergence dates of 95% of larvae of the second codling moth generation. This could increase the emergence probability of the pest third generation that has not currently occurred in Poland.
- SourceAvailable from: Shanlei Sun[Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
ABSTRACT: Based on phenological and economic output models established and meteorological data from 1972 to 2013, changes in the phenology, frost risk, and economic output of the Longjing-43 tea tree in the Yuezhou Longjing tea production area of China were evaluated. As the local climate has changed, the beginning dates of tea bud and leaf plucking of this cultivar in all five counties studied has advanced significantly by -1.28 to -0.88 days/decade, with no significant change in the risk of frost. The main tea-producing stages in the tea production cycle include the plucking periods for superfine, grade 1, and grade 2 buds and leaves. Among the five bud and leaf grades, the economic output of the plucking periods for superfine and grade 1 decreased significantly, that for grade 2 showed no significant change, and those for grades 3 and 4 increased significantly. The economic output of large-area tea plantations employing an average of 45 workers per hectare and producing superfine to grade 2 buds and leaves were significantly reduced by 6,745-8,829 yuan/decade/ha, depending on the county. Those tea farmers who planted tea trees on their own small land holdings and produced superfine to grade 4 tea buds and leaves themselves experienced no significant decline in economic output.International Journal of Biometeorology 07/2014; · 2.59 Impact Factor
Page 1
International Journal of
Volume 57
Number 1
Int J Biometeorol (2013) 57:31-44
DOI 10.1007/s00484-012-0531-0
Climate change impact on development
rates of the codling moth (Cydia pomonella
L.) in the Wielkopolska region, Poland
Radosław Juszczak, Leszek Kuchar, Jacek
Leśny & Janusz Olejnik
Page 2
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Climate change impact on development rates of the codling
moth (Cydia pomonella L.) in the Wielkopolska
region, Poland
Radosław Juszczak & Leszek Kuchar & Jacek Leśny &
Janusz Olejnik
Received: 7 February 2011 /Revised: 6 February 2012 /Accepted: 6 February 2012 /Published online: 29 February 2012
#The Author(s) 2012. This article is published with open access at Springerlink.com
Abstract The main goal of this paper is to estimate how the
observed and predicted climate changes may affect the
development rates and emergence of the codling moth in
the southern part of the Wielkopolska region in Poland. In
order to simulate the future climate conditions one of the
most frequently used A1B SRES scenarios and two different
IPCC climate models (HadCM3 and GISS modelE) are
considered. A daily weather generator (WGENK) was used
to generate temperature values for present and future climate
conditions (time horizons 2020–2040 and 2040–2060).
Based on the generated data set, the degree-days values
were then calculated and the emergence dates of the codling
moth at key stages were estimated basing on the defined
thresholds. Our analyses showed that the average air surface
temperature in the Wielkopolska region may increase from
2.8°C (according to GISS modelE) even up to 3.3°C
(HadCM3) in the period of 2040–2060. With the warming
climate conditions the cumulated degree-days values may
increase at a rate of about 142 DD per decade when the low
temperature threshold (Tlow) of 0°C is considered and 91
DD per decade when Tlow010°C. The key developmental
stages of the codling moth may occur much earlier in the
future climate conditions than currently, at a rate of about
3.8–6.8 days per decade, depending on the considered GCM
model and the pest developmental stage. The fastest changes
may be observed in the emergence dates of 95% of larvae of
the second codling moth generation. This could increase the
emergence probability of the pest third generation that has
not currently occurred in Poland.
Keywords Climatechange.Degreedays.Codlingmoth
Cumulative degree-days
Upper temperature threshold
Lower temperature threshold
Maximum daily temperature
Minimum daily temperature
Insects are the most diverse class of organisms on the Earth.
More and more studies are focused on the potential impact
of the climate changes on insects because they have, in most
cases, detrimental effects on human beings and natural
ecosystems (e.g. Harrington et al. 2001). The climate is the
dominant factor determining the abundance and distribution
R. Juszczak:J. Leśny:J. Olejnik
Meteorology Department, Poznan University of Life Sciences,
Piatkowska 94,
60649 Poznan, Poland
R. Juszczak (*)
Institute for Agricultural and Forest Environment,
Polish Academy of Science,
Bukowska 19,
60809 Poznan, Poland
e-mail: email@example.com
L. Kuchar
Department of Mathematics,
University of Environmental and Life Sciences,
Grunwaldzka 53,
50357 Wroclaw, Poland
J. Olejnik
Department of Matter and Energy Fluxes,
Global Change Research Center AS CR, v.v.i.,
Brno, Czech Republic
Int J Biometeorol (2013) 57:31–44
DOI 10.1007/s00484-012-0531-0
Page 4
of most insect species (Sutherst 2000). Their habitats and
survival strategies are dependent on the local weather con-
ditions. Moreover, they are very sensitive to temperature
changes, as they are cold-blooded (e.g. Edelson and Magaro
1988; Gilbert and Ragworth 1996; Harrington et al. 2001).
The development rates of insects are strongly nonlinear
functions of temperature (Logan et al. 2006). Within the
bounds of the insects linear response to temperature, they
may respond to higher temperature with increased develop-
ment rates and shorter timing between their developmental
stages and consecutive generations (Rosenzweig et al. 2001;
Logan et al. 2006). However, temperatures above the opti-
mum temperature of development reduce insect longevity
(Rosenzweig et al. 2001) and usually lead to a rapid de-
crease of their developmental rate and consequently increase
insect mortality (Riedl 1983).
The global average temperature has already increased by
0.74°C over the last hundred years (1906–2005). The global
linear warming trend (of 0.13°C per decade) over 50 years
from 1956 to 2005 is nearly twice as high as it was for the
period from 1906 to 2005 (IPCC, Climate Change Synthesis
Report 2007). However, in Poland the average air tempera-
ture changes were even higher and temperature increased by
0.25°C per decade within the period of 1966–2006. The
biggest changes were recorded for the summer period
(June–August), when the temperature increased even by
0.33°C per decade (Mager et al. 2009). With the warming
climate the cumulative degree-days may increase to 205 DD
per each 1.0°C average air temperature change, when lower
temperature threshold is 0°C and 85 DD, when Tlow>10°C
(Juszczak et al. 2010). According to the IPCC Fourth As-
sessment Report (WG1) (2007), it is highly probable that at
the end of the 21st century the surface temperature will
increase from 1.8°C, with a likely range of 1.1–2.9°C for
"LOW" SRES scenario, even up to 4.0°C with a likely range
of 2.4–6.4°C for "HIGH" SRES scenario. A temperature
rise of about 0.2°C per decade is projected for the next two
decades for all SRES emission scenarios (IPCC, WG1
Report 2007).
The temperature changes may strongly affect the insects'
physiology and spatial distribution, especially in areas
where temperatures tend to be below species optima for
most of the year (e.g. Harrington et al. 2001; Yamamura et
al. 2006). In these conditions, climate warming may influ-
ence insect populations by extending the growing season,
altering timing of emergence, increasing growth and devel-
opment rates, shortening generation times and consequently
increasing the number of generations, reducing overwinter-
ing mortality and consequently increasing insect popula-
tions in the subsequent growing season, increasing the risk
of invasion by migrant pests and altering their geographical
distribution (Porter et al. 1991; Sutherst 2000; Rosenzweig
et al. 2001; Strand 2000; Bergant et al. 2006; Olfert and
Weiss 2006; Trnka et al. 2007). Many species have already
responded to the warming conditions that occurred over the
last century (e.g. Crozier and Dwyer 2006). What is more,
the increased frequency of climate extremes can also pro-
mote outbreaks of the pest (Gan 2004).
The spatial and temporal distribution of different insects
in current and future climate regimes may be predicted by
different models, such as CLIMEX (e.g. Rafoss and Saethre
2003) or ECAMON (Trnka et al. 2007). The complexity and
main assumptions of models used to simulate the pest de-
velopment are often different, but most of them are based
only on temperature (e.g. Cesaraccio et al. 2001; Logan et
al. 2006; Juszczak et al. 2009). To predict the emergence
dates of different developmental stages of insects in current
conditions, the degree-days models are most commonly
applied in the pest management practice. In such cases,
developmental rates of invertebrates are often assumed to
increase approximately linearly as a function of temperature
(e.g. Riedl 1983; Roltsch et al. 1999; Snyder et al. 1999;
Bonhomme 2000). However, this assumption may be ap-
plied only within the bounds of the linear response to
temperature, specific for each individual species, and only
for conditions where insects are well adapted to the local
climate. In all other cases, the non-linear physiologically
based models shall be applied (e.g. Logan et al. 2006), as
they take into account the temperature stress induced by
environmental temperatures higher than the insect optimum
developmental temperature (Maiorano 2011). Nevertheless,
the degree-days linear modeling concept is sometimes used
to predict the development rates of some insects in future
climatic conditions (e.g. Bergant et al. 2006), but the uncer-
tainties of such simulations are very high.
Considering the above, the main goal of this paper
was to estimate how the observed and predicted climate
changes may affect the development rates and emergence
of the codling moth in the southern part of the Wielko-
polska region in Poland. In order to simulate the future
climate conditions, one of the most frequently used A1B
SRES scenario and two different IPCC climate models
are considered. Basing on these assumptions, a daily
weather generator was used in order to generate temper-
ature values (daily maximum and minimum tempera-
tures) for the future climate conditions. In the paper,
degree-days were calculated basing on measured and
modeled temperatures in order to present: (1) trends of
cumulative degree-days values, and (2) the potential
emergence dates of the codling moth at the key devel-
opmental stages in the future climate conditions.
The economical importance of the codling moth is
related mostly to damage caused by its larvae on apples.
This insect can infest up to 90% of an apple crop if
orchards are not chemically protected. The codling moth
development can be easily controlled if at least a few
32Int J Biometeorol (2013) 57:31–44
Page 5
insecticide sprays are applied on apple orchards during
the growing season. Appropriate timing of cover sprays
is a key factor in obtaining adequate control of the pest
with a minimum insecticide usage (Brunner and Hoyt
1987). This is very important to control the develop-
ment of the codling moth, as this insect is able to
produce, dependending on the climatic zones, up to five
generations during one year (Riedl 1983). Pupation of
wintered caterpillars begins at an average daily temper-
ature of 10°C, and can last 1–2 months. Mass pupation
coincides with flowering of early varieties of apples.
Flight of imago occurs in spring at temperatures higher
than 16–17°C, and starts to be visible soon after apples'
flowering, reaching a maximum in 2–3 weeks during
the formation of seed-buds. Moths of the second gener-
ation can appear during the flight of the moths of the
first generation (Kuznetsov 1994).
In order to approximate the time during which the cod-
ling moth reaches a particular development stage throughout
the growing season, the degree-days method is most often
applied by orchardists. Degree-days, which are necessary
for the estimation of the development stages of the codling
moth, are most often calculated on the basis of the single
sine method with a horizontal cut-off technique (Brunner
and Hoyt 1987).
Materials and method
Study site
Analyses were carried out on the basis of the climate data
from the research station of the Polish Academy of Science
(PAS) in Turew (52°4′0″N, 16°50′0″E), in the south part of
the Wielkopolska region, in the middle west of Poland
(Fig. 1). The research station belongs to the Institute of
Agricultural and Forest Environment of PAS and is located
in the middle of the Dezydery Chlapowski Agro-Ecological
Landscape Park (Kedziora 2010).
Weather input data, climate change scenarios and GCM
All the weather data used in the analyses were collected
from the weather station located close to the PAS research
station. The set of 34 years of minimum and maximum daily
temperatures (from 1972 to 2005) was used to calculate
degree-days as well as to generate 500-year series of max-
imum and minimum daily temperatures for the A1B SRES
scenario and for different time horizons.
Among six groups of SRES scenarios discussed in the
IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report (2007a, b), the A1B
scenario is most commonly used and best represented in
the literature (Nakićenović and Swart 2000). Considering
the assumptions of A1B scenario, the global surface tem-
perature will rise until the year 2100 on average by about
2.8°C (in relation to the average baseline temperature 1980–
1999) with a likely range of 1.7–4.4°C (IPCC's Fourth
Assessment Report, WG1 2007).
We used the HadCM3 and GISS modelE coupled
atmosphere-ocean modeling results to find statistics which
were then used to generate air surface temperature for two
time horizons: 2020–2040 and 2040–2060. Detailed de-
scription of the GISS modelE can be found, e.g. in Schmidt
et al. (2006), Aleinov and Schmidt (2006), and Koch et al.
(2006). General published references related to the HadCM3
model can be found, e.g. in Gordon et al. (2000), Pope et al.
(2000), and Johns et al. (2003). According to predictions
based on the GISS modelE (scenario A1B), the average
annual temperature in central Europe can increase by 2.8°C
(±12%) following a doubling of CO2concentration (ca. in
2040–2060). The average air temperature in winter will in-
crease even by 3.2°C and in summer by 2.0°C (IPCC 2007a,
b). The HadCM3 modeling results (based on A1B scenario)
indicated that a most probable increase of annual average
surface temperature for the north of Poland in the period of
2040–2060 can reach even 3.3°C (±1.1°C). The temperatures
in winter and summer may increase up to 3.5°C (ENSAM-
BLES project, unpublished data).
Daily temperature generator
The daily maximum and minimum temperatures were gen-
erated on the basis of assumptions described above by using
the WGENK daily weather generator (Kuchar 2004). The
WGENK generator is a modified version of the well-known
WGEN generator of Richardson and Wright (1984). The
WGEN model has already been tested and well documented
for locations in the USA (Richardson and Wright 1984),
Alaska (Skiles and Richardson 1998), Europe, Asia
Fig. 1 Location of the Turew station, Wielkopolska region, Poland
Int J Biometeorol (2013) 57:31–4433
Page 6
(Semenov et al. 1998) and South America (Taulis and Milke
2005). The modified WGENK version, tested in Polish
conditions (Kuchar 2004), showed fewer errors for means
and variances of the generated data in comparison to the
WGEN results.
The procedure used in WGENK for generating daily
values of maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temper-
atures is the same as in WGEN and was described by
Richardson (1981) and Richardson and Wright (1984).
Degree-days calculation
Degree-days values were calculated on the basis of a single-
sine method which uses daily minimum and maximum
temperatures to produce a sine-wave curve for a 24-hour
period, and then estimates a degree-day for that day by
calculating the area between the defined temperature thresh-
olds and below the curve (Baskerville and Emin 1969; Allen
1976; De Gaetano and Knapp 1993; Roltsch et al. 1999).
The most common single-sine method is recommended to
be applied in the field conditions for estimation of degree-
days (Pruess 1983). The method assumes that a temperature
curve is symmetrical around the maximum temperature.
Depending on the considered temperature thresholds (lower
and upper) and a place where the sine curve is intercepted by
these thresholds, the formulas used for the calculation of
degree-days differ significantly (Zalom et al. 1983). If the
upper threshold is taken into consideration, then a horizontal
cut-off method is usually applied in calculations to subtract
the area between the upper threshold and the sine curve,
from the area above the lower threshold. This cut-off meth-
od assumes that the development of the insect continues at a
constant rate at a temperature in excess of the upper thresh-
old and does not increase or stop above this threshold
(http://www.ipm.ucdavis.edu/). Formulas used for degree-
days calculations are as follows (based on Zalom et al.
A) If Tmax>TUand Tmin<Tlowthen the sine curve is
intercepted by both thresholds and
Tmaxþ Tmin
? Tlow
ðθ2? θ1Þ þ a cosðθ1Þ ? cosðθ2Þ½? þ ðTU? TlowÞ
2? θ2
θ1¼ sin?1
θ2¼ sin?1
??? a
??? a
??and /¼Tmax?Tmin
B) If Tmax>TU, Tmin>Tlowthen the sine curve is intercep-
ted by the upper threshold and
Tmaxþ Tmin
? TLow
þ ðTU? TlowÞ
2? θ2
? ½/ cosðθ2Þ?
θ2¼ sin?1
TU?Tmaxþ Tmin
? a
C) If Tmax<TU, Tmin<Tlowthen the sine curve is intercep-
ted by the lower threshold and
? Tlow
2? θ1
þ / cosðθ1Þ
34Int J Biometeorol (2013) 57:31–44
Page 7
θ1¼ sin?1
Tlow?Tmaxþ Tmin
? a
D) If Tmax<TU, Tmin>Tlowthen the sine curve is between
both thresholds and
DD ¼Tmaxþ Tmin
? Tlow
E) If Tmax>TU, Tmin<Tlowthen the sine curve is above
both thresholds and
DD ¼ TUþ Tlow
F) If Tmax<Tlow, Tmin<Tlowthen the sine curve is below
both thresholds and
Degree-days were calculated for two defined lower tem-
perature thresholds of 0.0°C and 10.0°C to demonstrate the
changes of DD sums above these thresholds in present and
future climate conditions. The upper threshold is not con-
sidered in these analyses (sine curve is not intercepted by the
upper threshold).
The codling moth (Cydia pomonella L.) development model
The developmental thresholds and thermal requirements of
different development stages of the codling moth are different,
but the base threshold temperature of 10°C is most commonly
used in case of assessment of eggs, larvae and pupae develop-
ment (Glenn 1922; Shel'deshova 1967; Riedel and Croft 1978;
Richardson et al. 1982; Howell and Neven 2000; Rafoss and
Saethre 2003). A temperature between 15 and 27°C is sug-
gested as optimal temperature for population growth, with 30–
34°C as an upper temperature threshold (Howell and Neven
2000). In our analyses we assumed that the upper temperature
threshold for the codling moth development equals 31.1°C
(Brunner and Hoyt 1981, 1987; Pitcairn et al. 1992). Consid-
ering the above-mentioned assumptions we calculated degree-
beginning of the year and the key degree-days thresholds of
to estimate the emergence dates of some key developmental
stages of the codling moth (as described in Table 1).
Temperature changes
For each set of 500-years of generated temperatures the
average, maximum and minimum values of daily Tmax, and
Tminwere calculated for each year. Additionally, the average
annual temperature was calculated for each year as an arith-
metic average of daily Tmax, and Tmin. The variability of all
analyzed parameters for all models and time horizons of the
measured and generated data is presented in Fig. 2.
The average annual air temperature in Turew station for
the period of 1972–2005 equaled 8.9°C. According to the
analyzed generated data set, the average annual temperature
may increase from 1.0°C (GISS modelE) to 1.5°C
(HadCM3) in the period of 2020–2040 and from 2.9°C
(GISS modelE) to 3.3°C (HadCM3) in the period of 2040–
2060 (with standard deviation ±0.5°C), in relation to base-
line average temperature for the period of 1972–2004
(Fig. 2a). The average annual Tmaxand Tmintemperatures
may increase more or less to the same extent in the same
periods. Much higher changes may occur in the case of daily
extreme temperatures. The highest from the daily Tmaxmay
increase from 33.8°C (1972–2004) even up to 37.5°C (GISS
modelE) and 39.8°C (HadCM3). This means that the high-
est values of maximum daily Tmaxrecorded over the year
may rise even from 3.7°C (GISS modelE) up to 6.0°C
(HadCM3) in the period of 2040–2060. At the same time,
the maximum daily values of Tminmay increase from 3.8°C
(GISS modelE) to 6.6°C (HadCM3) for the same period
(data not shown). However, much smaller rise of tempera-
ture may be expected in the case of minimum values of Tmax
and Tmin, although the standard deviation is at least two
times higher than in the case of maximum values of Tmax
and Tmin(Fig. 2a).
The variance of predicted average temperatures may
slightly increase in the future climate conditions with the
increase of average temperatures (Fig. 2b). However, if we
focus on extreme temperatures, then we can see that the
variance of these temperatures (e.g. MAX(max), MIN(min))
is much larger than that of average values and may increase
Table 1 Codlingmothdevelopmentmodel.Theselectedkeycumulative
DD thresholds were set on the basis of Brunner and Hoyt (1981, 1987)
DD thresholdComments
110 DD3-4 adults of the first generation caught in a
pheromone trap
First larvae of the first generation hatch from eggs
First moths' flights of the second generation
Nearly all (>95%) larvae of the second generation
are already hatched
Int J Biometeorol (2013) 57:31–4435
Page 8
Number of observations
Temperature oC
Fig. 2 Statistics of the measured and generated temperatures for 500-
year data series (a), as well as the probability distribution curves for the
generated data (b), for the present and future climate conditions (SRES
scenario A1B) and two IPCC models (GISS modelE, HadCM3) for the
two time horizons of 2020–2040 and 2040–2060. MAX represents
daily Tmax, MIN – daily Tminand Average –average temperature; text
in the brackets e.g. MIN(max) – these are the highest values from daily
Tminover a year; MIN(min) – these are the lowest values from the daily
Tminover a year; MIN (avg) – these are the average values from daily
Tminfor each year of the whole set of 500-year data, etc. Note: The y-
axis representing temperature values has a different scale, and the
supplementary y-axis refers to the differences between temperature
for each considered generated/modeled temperature parameters and
the same temperature parameter for the period of 1972–2005
36 Int J Biometeorol (2013) 57:31–44
Page 9
much more especially for MAX(max) in the future climate
conditions. The highest values of daily maximum temper-
atures (MAX (max)) predicted by the HadCM3 model may
be nearly in all cases higher in the future climate conditions
(2040–2060) than in present conditions. In each case, there is
a noticeable variance of predicted temperatures as a result of
HadCM3 modeling. GISS-modelE also predicts the increase
oftemperatures,but the varianceofthose temperatureswill be
smaller than in the case of HadCM3. This could lead to
conclusions that with the warming climate, higher values of
variance may be expected in central Poland.
In order to understand how these temperature changes
may affect the pest phenology and if it is possible to
apply the linear model of the codling moth development
in the present and future climate conditions, we ana-
lyzed how frequently daily Tmaxare exceeding the upper
temperature threshold of 31.1°C (which may represent a
stressful situation for the insect and may reduce or stop
its development rate). The analyses were carried out for
the periods starting on the day when the 110DD thresh-
old was reached and finished on the day when 250 and
650DD thresholds (see Table 1) were exceeded (Fig. 3).
The analyses were done both for the 34-year set of
measured Tmaxand for the 500-year set of Tmaxgener-
ated for future climate conditions. In the current con-
ditions the threshold temperature of 31.1°C is exceeded
by Tmax within 1.9% of days of the first period and
5.5% of days of the second period. These numbers may
be doubled in the period of 2040–2060 and may reach
4.0% and 11.4% of days of the first and second periods,
respectively. Although the numbers of days when the
upper temperature threshold is exceeded by daily Tmax
are likely to increase in future climate conditions, it is
rather unlikely that these changes could have detrimen-
tal effect on the pest development. One should consider
that the upper temperature threshold may be exceeded
by Tmaxfor very short time during the day only in the
afternoon hours. Taking these assumptions into account
we consider that the application of the simple linear DD
model of the codling moth development is justified in
central Poland's conditions and although the model rep-
resents some limits it does not lead to incorrect
Fig. 3 Distribution curves of daily Tmaxand cumulative distribution
curves of daily Tmaxfor the measured and generated datasets and for
two periods starting on the days when cumulative degree-days
exceeded the 110 DD threshold and finished on the day when cumu-
lative DD exceeded 250 (a) and 650 DD (b). Measured Tmaxare
restricted to the period 1972–2005, while generated data are related
to 500-year datasets for future climate conditions (SRES scenario
A1B) and two IPCC models (GISS modelE, HadCM3), for two time
horizons of 2020–2040 and 2040–2060
Int J Biometeorol (2013) 57:31–4437
Page 10
Changes of cumulated degree-days
Degree-days (DD) were calculated on the basis of mea-
sured and generated Tmaxand Tminfor two low temper-
ature thresholds of 0°C and 10°C (without upper
threshold limits) in order to find out how the cumula-
tive yearly values of DD can change in the future
climate conditions (for SRES scenario A1B). Cumula-
tive values of degree-days (DDcum) increased in the
period of 1972–2004 (Fig. 4). In the future climate
conditions the number of DDcum calculated above
Tlow00°C can increase from about 3470 DD (average
for 1972–2005) to 4430 DD (GISS modelE) – 4580 DD
(HadCM3) in the period of 2040–2060. If Tlow010°C is
considered, then the DDcumcan change from 1100 DD
(1972–2005) to 1670 DD (GISS modelE) – 1825 DD
(HadCM3). The DDcum calculated based on the data
from the HadCM3 model are slightly higher for the
same periods than for the GISS modelE. Considering
the observed trends, the DDcumvalues can increase at a
rate of about 142 DD per decade when Tlow00°C is
considered, and 91 DD per decade when Tlow010°C.
The cumulative degree-days values increase with in-
creasing values of average annual temperatures (Fig. 5).
The observed changes are more statistically significant
when DD are calculated on the basis of HadCM3 mod-
eling results for both temperature thresholds. For higher
temperature (later time horizons), the trends are more
significant. With increasing values of cumulated degree-
days, the variance of such parameters will increase
essentially in the future climate conditions and both
temperature thresholds (Fig. 6). However, these changes
can be more pronounced in the case of DD calculated
for Tlow00°C.
Changes in the emergence dates of key developmental
stages of the codling moth (Cydia pomonella L.)
The critical dates, when the key developmental stages of the
codling moth emerge, may likely occur much earlier in
future climate conditions, at a rate of about 3.5–6.3 days
earlier per decade than at present (Fig. 7).
The average date of first imago flights, when DD exceed
110, occurred at about the 137th day of the year (DOY) in
the period of 1972–2005 and it may happen around 110–115
DOY in the period of 2040–2060 (no matter which IPCC
model is considered) (Figs. 8, 9). However, with increased
temperatures, the variance of the dates when the threshold of
110 DD is exceeded will essentially increase in the future
climate conditions (Fig. 9). The changes in variance will be
much bigger for this key threshold than in the other case.
First moths flights of the second generation, when cumula-
tive DD reach 650, may appear from 19 days (GISS mod-
elE) even up to 33 days (HadCM3) earlier in the period of
2040–2060 (with no change in variance), than the average
for 1972–2005 (214 DOY). What is more important, how-
ever, is that the dates when 95% of larvae of the second
generation can be hatched (DD exceed 1200) may occur
from 20 (GISS modelE) to even 44 days earlier at 2040–
2060 time horizon, than the average date (269 DOY) in
1972–2005. The variance of dates may also increase with
increasing DD values, but this change will not be as big as in
the case of the first key threshold. This may lead to the
scenario in which, as a consequence of warmer conditions
and average daily temperatures above 16–17°C, the third
generation of the codling moth may occur during the second
part of the year in central Poland.
On the basis of the received results (Figs. 7 and 8) it can
be concluded that the dates of some key developmental
Fig. 4 Cumulative degree-days
calculated for low temperature
thresholds (Tlow) of 0°C and 10°
C based on the measured and
generated temperatures for the
present and future climate con-
ditions (SRES scenario A1B)
and two IPCC models (GISS
modelE, HadCM3) for two time
horizons of 2020–2040 and
38 Int J Biometeorol (2013) 57:31–44
Page 11
stages of the codling moth may appear much earlier in
the future climate conditions than at present. The ques-
tion is however, if with the accelerated occurrence dates
of these key stages, the length of phases between these
dates may also change. The results of our analyses are
shown in Fig. 10. The length of each phase was calcu-
lated as a difference between the average date when each
defined DD threshold was exceeded. The results did not
indicate a clear answer to the above question. Generally,
it seems that in the future conditions the length of phases
between DD thresholds may also be shorter than current-
ly. For example, the length of the first phase, when DD
exceeding 110 is achieved, may last 10–20 days shorter
than presently (no matter which model and time horizons
are considered). The essential trends are noticeable in the
case of third and fourth phases, when the length of the
phases shortens with later time horizons (with some
exceptions). However, in the case of the fourth phase
the interpretation of the data does not give such a clear
answer as for the third phase.
Fig. 5 Relationships between
the cumulated yearly degree-
days and average yearly tem-
peratures. DD were calculated
on the basis of the generated
data above low temperature
thresholds of 0°C and 10°C for
two time horizons of 2020–
2040 and 2040–2060 for mod-
els HadCM3 (a) and GISS
modelE (b)
Degree-days DD
Degree-days DD
Fig. 6 Distribution curves for the modeled yearly cumulated DD for
low temperature thresholds (Tlow) of 0°C (a) and 10°C (b) based on the
generated temperatures, for the present and future climate conditions
(SRES scenario A1B) and two IPCC models (GISS modelE,
HadCM3), for two time horizons of 2020–2040 and 2040–2060
Int J Biometeorol (2013) 57:31–44 39
Page 12
The assessment of climate change impacts on agroecosys-
tems and potential adaptation measures at different scales is
one of the most important challenges in climate change
research (Eitzinger et al. 2009a, b; Eitzinger et al. 2010a,
b; Serba et al. 2010). Climate change impact on agriculture
can have more and more pronounced effects in the future
climate conditions. Thus, an early recognition of risks and
implementation of adaptation strategies is very important
and can be more effective and less costly than forced emer-
gency adaptations (EEA 2007).
In this paper, the authors applied a simple approach based
on accumulated degree-days and the climate change scenar-
io in order to assess the change of extreme temperatures,
sum of degree-days and emergence time of the codling moth
in the future climate conditions. This kind of study has never
been performed before for the codling moth in Polish con-
ditions. The combination of a simple DD modeling ap-
proach, with climate change scenarios and weather
generator, is for sure a new concept that gives interesting
results for the future theoretical considerations about the
potential impact of climate change on the pest development.
However, we understand the limitations of such an approach
and we know that the application of the linear degree-days
model to assess development rate changes of pests in future
climates (like it was done, for example, by Bergant et al.
2006) may be disputable, when the conditions to which the
model was established will be different. In such conditions,
the non-linear physiologically based models should be ap-
plied (e.g. Logan et al. 2006), as they may adequately
consider the biological processes and their response to the
changing climate and the results of modeling may be less
uncertain. The criticism of the linear methods may be related
to the fact that they may not consider correctly the impact of
extreme temperatures higher than optimum temperature on
pest development. In the paper we try to indicate that al-
though the frequencies of occurrence of Tmaxhigher than TU
may be even doubled in future conditions (2040–2060),
these temperatures may be reached only during few after-
noonhours and willnot have detrimental effecton the codling
for future climate conditions can be justified, although the
uncertainties of such modeling results may be quite high.
The application of the degree-days concept to estimate
the timing of pests emergence in current conditions is noth-
ing new and there are a lot of papers where DD were used
for that purpose. In our paper, the single sine technique with
Fig. 7 Days of a year when
cumulative DD exceed the
defined thresholds, for the
present and future climate
conditions (SRES scenario
A1B) and two IPCC models
(GISS modelE, HadCM3), for
two time horizons of 2020–
2040 and 2040–2060
Fig. 8 Average number of days
when cumulative DD exceed
the defined threshold for the
present and future climate
conditions (SRES scenario
A1B) and two IPCC models
(GISS modelE, HadCM3), for
two time horizons of 2020–
2040 and 2040–2060
40Int J Biometeorol (2013) 57:31–44
Page 13
a horizontal cut-off method was applied for the calculation
of degree-days following Pruess' (1983) recommendation.
Although, there are many other methods of DD calculation,
which were summarized and compared by Roltsch et al.
(1999), the single sine method with horizontal cut-off tech-
nique is most commonly used for the estimation of key
developmental stages of the codling moth (Brunner and
Hoyt 1987). This model is well verified in field conditions
Fig. 9 Distribution curves of the dates when the key developmental
stages (thresholds >100 DD, >250 DD, >650DD, >1200DD) are
achieved for the present and future climate conditions (SRES scenario
A1B) and two IPCC models (GISS modelE, HadCM3), for two time
horizons of 2020–2040 and 2040–2060. Note: The data for the current
conditions presented here are generated with WGENK (500-year se-
ries) based on the measured Turew data for the period of 1972–2005.
The series of data for the threshold of >1200DD and current conditions
are not presented on the graph, as there were only a few years among
500-year series of data when this threshold was exceeded
Fig. 10 Length of the phases
between thresholds for the
present and future climate
conditions (SRES scenario
A1B) and two models (GISS
modelE, HadCM3), for two
time horizons of 2020–2040
and 2040–2060
Int J Biometeorol (2013) 57:31–4441
Page 14
(e.g. Pruess 1983; Brunner and Hoyt 1987) for different
countries and regions (e.g. Pitcairn et al. 1992).
The weakness of our analyses is that the degree-days
thresholds used for modeling were defined for California
(USA) conditions and were not experimentally validated
in Polish conditions (at least there are not any papers
published in recent decades where such information can
be found). What is more, the analyses carried out on the
basis of the measured data series from 1972–2005 cannot
be verified as there is not an easily available source of
field experimental data of the codling moth key stages
monitoring. The basic monitoring of the codling moth,
based on the pheromone traps, is performed in Poland
individually by orchardists, a national agency (the Insti-
tute of Plant Protection) and research institutes (e.g.
Research Institute of Pomology and Floriculture). Results
of the monitoring indicated that the first flights of imago
occurred in central Poland most often in the middle of
May and the number of moths caught in traps was
increasing year by year (Plucienik and Olszak 2006).
The sources of information related to the codling moth
monitoring exist mostly in a non-digital format, which
unfortunately does not allow us to make validation of the
codling moth model. Nevertheless, considering these lim-
itations, the authors of the paper claim that the per-
formed analyses may indicate the ongoing process of
the accelerated development rates of the codling moth
in central Poland. This process, which is following the
global warming trends, can be more troublesome in the
future climate conditions, when this insect can appear in
Poland more than one month earlier, giving more than
two generations during the growing season. Obviously,
the occurrence dates of some key developmental stages
of the codling moth can differ from those presented in
the paper, but orchardists have to consider these changes
in their daily practice by earlier monitoring and exact
timing of covering sprays application. The observed
trends in central Poland are in line with findings of other
authors related to different pests (e.g. Porter et al. 1991;
Root et al. 2003; Crozier and Dwyer 2006; Trnka et al.
2007, and many others).
An interesting finding is that, although the emergence of
different pest stages may occur much faster in the future
climate conditions, the length of the phases between the
defined DD thresholds will change only insignificantly (al-
though in most cases they can be slightly shorter). Never-
theless, these small changes of the development phases
length may lead to the situation when the third generation
of the codling moth can occur during the second part of the
growing season in central Poland. The question is, however,
whether this generation of the pest could have any econom-
ical importance, if with longer growing season and warmer
conditions the time of apple ripening may also occur earlier
during the year. Most probably not, but this issue requires
more complementary interdisciplinary studies in the future.
1. Assuming the A1B SRESS emission scenario, the average
air surface temperature in the Wielkopolska region may
increase from 2.8°C (according to GISS modelE) even up
to 3.3°C (HadCM3) in the period 2040–2060. The biggest
changes can be observed in the case of extreme temper-
atures. The highest from the daily maximum temperatures
can increase from 3.7°C to 6.0°C in the period of 2040–
2060, depending on GCM's model. With the warming
climate, much higher values of daily maximum and mini-
expected in central Poland. The probability of heat wave
occurrences with extreme Tmaxvalues may increase essen-
tially. Whereas frost events with higher values of Tminmay
be most probably shorter and less troublesome.
2. With the warming climate conditions the cumulated
degree-days values may increase at a rate of about 142
DD per decade when the low temperature threshold
(Tlow) of 0°C is considered, and 91 DD per decade when
3. The key developmental stages of the codling moth can
emerge in the future climate conditions much earlier
than currently at a rate of about 3.8–6.8 days per decade,
depending on the considered GCM model and the pest
developmental stage. The fastest changes may be ob-
served in the emergence dates of 95% of larvae of the
second codling moth generation. This may increase the
emergence probability of the pest third generation, that
has not occurred presently in Poland.
4.The length of phases between the key degree-days
thresholds may be slightly shorter in the future condi-
tions than presently. The length of the first phase, cal-
culated from the beginning of the year to the day when
the first moths are caught in traps, may last even 20 days
shorter than presently in the period 2040–2060.
5. There are quite significant differences in modeling results
of the analyzed data series of temperatures and degree-
days generated on the basis of the considered IPCC mod-
els. Temperatures generated basing on HadCM3 model-
ing results, as well as cumulated degree-days reached
highervaluesand had larger varianceinthe futureclimate
conditions than the same parameters simulated on the
GISS modelE. This indicates some differences between
the models themselves, but at the same time the most
probable range of predicted changes can be better evalu-
ated. Themostimportant isthatboth modelsindicatedthe
same processes and changes but with a slightly different
42Int J Biometeorol (2013) 57:31–44
Page 15
for challenging questions and suggestions, which helped improve the
manuscript. The work was founded by the EU FP6 Project ADAGIO
(Contract No SSPE-CT-2006-044210). The ENSEMBLES data used in
this work were funded by the EU FP6 Integrated Project ENSEMBLES
(Contract No 505539) whose support is gratefully acknowledged.
We would like to thank the anonymous reviewers
Open Access
Commons Attribution License which permits any use, distribution, and
reproduction in any medium, provided the original author(s) and the
source are credited.
This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative
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277 FXUS62 KTAE 260325 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1025 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]... Strong shortave rounding the base of the persistent central U.S. trough is helping to induce sfc cyclogenesis over the Florida Peninsula this evening. This feature is also providing the lift for one more round of light to moderate rain across the forecast area. As this shortwave exits the area late tonight, expect to see the rain come to an end, followed shortly by clearing skies. Back edge of clouds is currently moving into eastern Mississippi. Made a few adjustments to the PoPs this evening based on radar trends, but no other significant changes were needed. && .Aviation... [Through 00Z Thursday] Remaining low cigs at KTLH and KVLD will slowly lift with VFR conditions expected at all terminals by around 10-12UTC. Remaining light rain will also come to an end overnight, with dry conditions on Wednesday. && .Prev Discussion [240 PM EST]... .Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]... There is a 20-30% chance of rain for our eastern zones Wednesday morning from the wrap around moisture associated with the cold front, but once the system lifts off to the northeast in the afternoon, we will start to notice the colder, drier air moving in as surface high pressure starts to build eastward. This airmass won`t be as cold as last week`s cold front, but highs will struggle to reach 60 both Wednesday and on Thanksgiving despite clearing skies. Lows will return to the mid to upper 30s, with a light freeze (brushing around 32F for an hour or so) even possible in our northwestern zones Thursday night. .Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]... High pressure will continue to push eastward over the southeastern states through the long term period. There are no significant chances of rain through the period, although cloud cover and moisture will begin to increase again early next week. The airmass will be cool and dry through Friday night, with highs in the upper 50s to around 60 and lows in the mid to upper 30s. Over the weekend however, the airmass will begin to modify and we will warm up a bit to highs in the mid 60s to low 70s and lows in the 40s to around 50. .Marine... Winds and waves will continue to ramp up overnight, with seas peaking at 7 to 9 feet occasionally as high as 11 feet and gusts to gale force possible over the offshore waters. Winds will begin to decrease Wednesday morning and by Wednesday afternoon, winds and waves will fall below headline criteria and remain so for the remainder of the period. .Fire Weather... Much drier air will move into the region over the next few days, with minimum humidity values in the 30s and 40s. However, with very wet fuel conditions, there are no fire weather concerns. .Hydrology... For the last few days, ending at 18z today, between 2 and 4 inches of rain had fallen across the region, with isolated maximum totals in of 5 inches across Southwestern Georgia and into the Florida Panhandle. Over the next 18 to 24 hours, an additional 1 to 2 inches is possible, primarily focused across the Florida Panhandle and into Southwestern Georgia. The areal flood potential through the remainder of this event is low. However, steady rises will continue through much of this week on area rivers. Given the bulk of the rainfall occurring in the Flint/Ochlockonee River basins, expect the most notable rises in these basins, particularly below Newton and Thomasville, respectively. Thomasville and Concord may reach action stage in the days ahead. However, these and all river points are expected to remain below flood stage. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Tallahassee 45 60 36 63 34 / 100 10 0 0 0 Panama City 43 62 46 62 41 / 100 0 0 0 0 Dothan 42 59 38 58 34 / 100 0 0 0 0 Albany 42 59 35 60 33 / 100 10 0 0 0 Valdosta 44 60 36 61 35 / 100 20 0 0 0 Cross City 49 63 36 64 34 / 90 20 0 0 0 Apalachicola 47 62 46 62 40 / 100 0 0 0 0 && .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for Apalachee Bay- Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM. && $$ NEAR TERM...CAMP SHORT TERM...MOORE LONG TERM...MOORE AVIATION...CAMP MARINE...MOORE FIRE WEATHER...CAMP HYDROLOGY...GODSEY