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On the heels of last week's so-insane-you-can't-look-away video for *'Exit Only (http://girlieaction.us1.list-manage.com/track/click?u=1d59aca4aeedaab429816159e&id=b9dce46c3d&e=dd924a6724)' * starring Oscar-nominee *Michael Shannon*, *Deerhoof* has revealed the* 'Paradise Girls'* video. A…
Author Archive | ajcolores
In Tall Buildings announces new album
*Erik Hall* worked patiently and solitarily for four years to craft* Driver*, his sophomore album as *In Tall Buildings*. Produced between his home studio in the Pilsen neighborhood of Chicago and a 60′s farmhouse in Leelanau County, Michigan, the album comes twenty years after* Hall* originally…
Billy Roberts and the Rough Riders – "No More Mr. Nice Guy"
The Last of the Orginals by Billy Roberts And The Rough Riders With a swanky sound touching on country, blues, and Americana, Billy Roberts and the Rough Riders essentially transport listeners to a local bar somewhere in the deep south, where good times and harmonica-laden sing-alongs are frequent. Funny enough, the group and frontman are […]
The post Billy Roberts and the Rough Riders – "No More Mr. Nice Guy" appeared first on .
Chief Keef – Trust My Gun
New self produced record from Chief Keef titled "Trust My Gun". Previously: Chief Keef – Laugh + Off With His Head + Fuck Niggas
Lil Durk ft. French Montana – I'm A Star
Durk and his Coke Boys label boss French Montana link up on the Deezy and Mekanics-produced "I'm A Star." Hear it below. Previously: Odd Couple ft. Lil Durk & Alex Wiley – Everything


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Math::Matrix is a Perl module that performs a number of common matrix
WWW: http://search.cpan.org/dist/Math-Matrix/
NOTE: FreshPorts displays only information on required and default dependencies. Optional dependencies are not covered.
This port is required by:
To install the port: cd /usr/ports/math/p5-Math-Matrix/ && make install cleanTo add the package: pkg install math/p5-Math-Matrix
cd /usr/ports/math/p5-Math-Matrix/ && make install clean
pkg install math/p5-Math-Matrix
No options to configure
Number of commits found: 10
- Update to 0.8
- Support STAGEDIR
Add NO_STAGE all over the place in preparation for the staging support (cat:
- Convert to new perl framework
- Trim Makefile header
- Remove MAKE_JOBS_SAFE=yes, it's the default.
Update to 0.7.
Update to 0.6.
- Get Rid MD5 support
- Take advantage of CPAN macro from bsd.sites.mk, change
${MASTER_SITE_PERL_CPAN} to CPAN.
PR: ports/122674
Submitted by: Philip M. Gollucci <firstname.lastname@example.com>
Reworked by: araujo (myself)
Approved by: portmgr (pav)
Update to 0.5.
Replace ugly "@unexec rmdir %D... 2>/dev/null || true" with @dirrmtry
Approved by: krion@
PR: ports/88711 (related)
Add math/p5-Math-Matrix 0.4, a Perl module that performs a number of
common matrix operations.
Servers and bandwidth provided byNew York Internet, SuperNews, and RootBSD
9 vulnerabilities affecting 11 ports have been reported in the past 14 days
* - modified, not new
All vulnerabilities

subset: commoncrawl


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I feel like a bum because I haven't written about MJM's amazing service yet- and I've ordered a lot from this site. It's the only site I use to...Read More ->
Yes, MJM Magic has great prices and very fast service, but it is also one of the few online magic shops that accept Paypal.
For those without a...Read More ->


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Econo Lodge
523 Griswold Rd.
Elyria, OH 44035
Phone: (440) 324-3911
Fax: (440) 324-3911
Starting From
See all Rates
523 Griswold Rd., Elyria, OH, US, 44035
- Phone: (440) 324-3911
- Fax: (440) 324-3911
2.3 out of 5 (32 reviews)
44% of guests recommend this hotel
Whiskey Island Marina
Whiskey Island Marina is not only a place to dock boats, it has something more to offer, with a variety of events and activities for the entire family. The panoramic views of lake Erie and the city are breathtaking and add to the entire sight-seeing experience. The Whiskey Island Marina also houses Sunset Grill which was voted Best Island Bar in 2007. Head here for fun, great views and good food. This is a great spot to soak up some sun during an indulgent weekend.
2800 Whiskey Island
Cleveland, OH 44102
+1 212 631 1800
Earn valuable points toward free nights.


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Former Buffalo Bills Quarterback Jim Kelly Visits CBS SUNDAY MORNING Today
Former Buffalo Bills quarterback Jim Kelly led the team to the Super Bowl four consecutive times - a record that will be hard to match for future generations. The Bills, however, lost all four games. Since then, Kelly has never watched highlights of any of those games, he tells CBS SUNDAY MORNING WITH Charles Osgood in an interview to be broadcast today, Feb. 3 (9:00 AM) on the CBS Television Network.
"Never have seen a game film in any of the Super Bowls, never watched one," Kelly tells Susan Spencer. "If I went back, I would have to repeat that all over in my mind... I'm at ease now. I'm at a peace of mind, peace in my heart now knowing what we accomplished, even though we didn't win them. I feel all right with that."
Kelly talks with Spencer for a report on the psychology of winning in sports, in awards and in other areas of life. Spencer also interviews experts on the subject of winning - and losing.
Despite the losses, Kelly knows a lot about winning as a member of the Pro Football Hall of Fame. His #12 football jersey has been retired by the Buffalo Bills, where he played for 11 years and won more than 100 games.
"There's always going to be a major emphasis on winning, because that's just the way society is," Kelly says. "That's just the way our culture is. That you want to be #1 at the end... If you're #2, at times, there's no doubt #2 is looked upon as mediocre, as a person that didn't achieve it, sometimes as losers."
Spencer's report on the psychology of winning will be broadcast today, Feb. 3 on CBS SUNDAY MORNING (9:00 AM, ET) on the CBS Television Network. Rand Morrison is the executive producer.
About Author
- Hilary Swank Hosts THE GREAT AMERICAN DOG-A-THON on FOX Tonight
- Kristin Chenoweth, Jane Lynch & More Set for FOX's CAUSE FOR PAWS: AN ALL-STAR DOG SPECTACULAR Tonight
- Lucy Hale Performs New Single at MACY'S THANKSGIVING DAY PARADE Today
- VIDEO: Sneak Peek - Comedy Central's ALL-STAR NON-DENOMINATIONAL CHRISTMAS SPECIAL, Airing Tonight
- TBS Airs Annual FRIENDS 14-Episode Thanksgiving Marathon Today
- VIDEO: Jack Cummings Helps Ann Harada in DEFENDING YOUR TRASH - Episode 2
- VIDEO: Sneak Peek at Sunday's ONCE UPON A TIME on ABC
- Judge Joe Bastianich to Depart FOX's MASTERCHEF
- Joy Behar and Playwright Bob Callely Set for THEATER TALK, Beginning 11/28
- NBCSN Delivers Best F1 Season Ever for Single Cable Network


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Quiz! How Well Do You Know the Hunger Games: Mockingjay Pt 1 Actors?
Are the odds in your favour?
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Take the quiz!
Download Your Taylor Swift Bingo Card and Start Playing Now!
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January 28th, 2008
The Cool Kids show on Saturday night was pretty awesome. It started out a little troubling when midnight hit and there was no sign of anything happening, then about 15 minutes later some guy gets on stage and announces the Kids had border issues but they're on the way (in hip-hop that usually means the show is over). So finally at 1:15 they show up and get right into it. Their music reminds me of early nineties hip-hop, or better yet the kind of music you would make if all you ever listened to was early nineties hip-hop.
Chuck even had the sickest throwback Mets Game hat, with the back clip and tags still on, almost like it actually was the early nineties. They did all the hits, Gold And A Pager, 88 and Black Mags … twice (?!). I guess when you're new in music you don't have a big catalogue to draw from, but I'm pretty sure the crowd was happy to hear the same song twice anyway.
At the end they really got into it, and both Mikey and Chuck tried crowd surfing (which didn't go over that well – I think I saw my friend Manny drop the ball on that one). But the show was hype and the stage got mauled immediately after it finished, so all in all I'd say it was a success!
MySpace: The Cool Kids
YouTube: The Cool Kids Perform @ Wrongbar
Posted on Monday, January 28th, 2008 at 11:14 am by Emma and is filed under Concerts & Events.Tweet


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What Risk-Parity Paring Could Mean for Equities
The stock market, the bond market, the commodities markets (to a lesser extent), FX markets – they are all experiencing a marked increase in volatility.
Some observers want to call this bearish for equities, mainly because they already are bearish. This is a very bad reason. While really bad equity returns almost always occur coincident with a rise in volatility – the old maxim is that stocks go 'up on the staircase and down on the escalator' – that does not mean that volatility causes bad returns. Or, put another way, there are also periods of increased volatility that do not precede and are not coincident with bad returns.
However, there actually is a reason that increased volatility might lead to poor short- to medium-term returns, that isn't based on technical analysis or spurious correlations. Moreover, a relatively new phenomenon (the rise of so-called 'risk-parity' strategies) is starting to institutionalize what was already a somewhat natural response to volatility.
In 'risk-parity' strategies, the weight of an asset class (or a security within an asset class, sometimes) is inversely proportional to the risk it adds to the portfolio. Generally speaking, "risk" here is defined as variance, because it is easy to estimate and there are markets where symmetrical variance trades – i.e., options markets. But what this means is that when volatility (sometimes realized volatility, and sometimes option "implied" volatility) rises in stocks, then risk parity strategies tend to be shedding equities because they look riskier, and vice-versa. Right now, risk parity strategies are likely to be overweight equities because of the long period of low realized and implied volatility (even though the valuation measures imply quite high risk in the sense most of us mean it, in terms of the probability of return shortfall). Risk parity strategies are probably superior to 'return-chasing' methodologies, but by being 'risk-chasing' they end up doing something fairly similar when they are all operating together.
Note that while risk-parity strategies are comparatively new – well, not exactly because it is an oldish idea, but they have only recently become a big fad – this general phenomenon is not. The natural response to greater equity market volatility is to pare back exposure; when your broker statement starts to swing around wildly it makes you nervous and so you may start to take some profits. This is also true of other asset classes but it seems to me to be especially true in equities. Nobody who gets involved in commodities is surprised at volatility: the asset class suffers from a midguided belief that it is terribly volatile even though commodity indices are just about exactly as volatile as equity indices over time. But equity investors, contrariwise, seem perennially surprised at 2% moves.
So, while the recent volatility doesn't mean that a move lower in equities is assured, it increases the probability of such because risk-parity strategies (and other investors reacting nervously to overweights in their equity exposure) will begin to scale back positions in the asset class in favor of positions in other asset classes, probably mostly bonds and commodities. At this point it would be good for me to point out that only the very short-term volatility measures have moved up dramatically; the VIX is well off its bottom but only up to 18.8 and it has been there numerous times in the last few years (see chart, source Bloomberg). But the longer the volatility continues like we have seen it for the last week or two, the bigger the chances that the asset-allocation boxes start to make important shifts (and the quant hedge fund boxes will probably move a bit before those asset allocation boxes do).
As an aside, the tendency for asset allocation shifts to follow volatility shifts is not the reason that the VIX displays a strong inverse directionality. Neither is the main reason for this inverse directionality because the VIX is a "fear gauge." The main reason is that the VIX weights near-the-money options more heavily than out-of-the-money options. Because options skews almost always imply more downside volatility for stocks than upside volatility[1], when the market declines it tends to bring more "high volatility" strikes into play and so part of the VIX increase in a down market is simply mechanical.
I am not calling for a sharp decline in stocks, nor for an extended decline in stocks. My position and view is as it has long been, that the prospect for attractive real returns from equities over the next 5-10 years is quite small and beaten handily by commodities' prospective returns at that end of the risk spectrum. I don't think that most investors (me included!) should swing asset allocations around frequently in response to technical indicators or such things as "momentum", but rather should focus on evaluating expected long-term returns (which are somewhat predictable) and invest for value. And I must admit I also think that "risk-parity" is a clever marketing gimmick but a pretty absurd way to assemble a portfolio for almost everyone. My point here is to highlight one little-considered aspect of herd behavior, and how that herd behavior may have become more institutionalized as late, and to consider the risks that herd behavior may create.
[1] This in turn is not due so much from the tendency of markets to have more downside volatility than upside volatility, but from the fact that buying protective puts and selling "covered" calls are both considered "conservative" options strategies. So, out-of-the-money puts tend to be too expensive and out-of-the-money calls too rich.
Fed Gearing Up to Stand Down
I guess it's something about strong growth numbers and a tightening central bank that bonds just don't like so much. Ten-year Treasury yields rose about 9bps today, under pressure from the realization that higher growth and higher inflation, which is historically a pretty bad cocktail for bonds, is being offset less and less by extraordinary Federal Reserve bond buying. Yields recently had fallen as the Q1 numbers doused the idea that the economic recovery will continue without incident, and as the global political and security situation deteriorated (maybe we will just say it became "less tranquil"). Nominal 10 year yields had dipped below 2.50%, and TIPS yields had reached 0.20% again. It didn't hurt that so many were leaning on the bear case for bonds and were tortured the further bonds rallied.
Stocks, evidently, didn't get the message that higher interest rates are more likely, going forward, than lower interest rates. They didn't get the message that the Fed is going to be less accommodative. They didn't even get the message that the Fed sees the "likelihood of inflation running persistently below 2 percent has diminished somewhat." The equity markets ended flat. Sure, it has not been another banner month for the stock jockeys, but with earnings up a tepid 6% or so year/year the market is up nearly 17% so…yes, you did the math right: P/E multiples keep expanding!
My personal theory is that stocks are doing so well because Greenspan thinks they're expensive. In an interview today on Bloomberg Television, Greenspan said that "somewhere along the line we will get a significant correction." Historically speaking, the former Chairman's ability to call a top has been something less than spectacular. After he questioned whether the market might be under the influence of 'irrational exuberance,' the market continued to rally for quite some time. Now, he wasn't alone in being surprised by that, but he also threw in the towel on that view and was full-throatedly bullish through the latter stages of the 1990s equity bubble. So, perhaps, investors are just fading his view. Although to be fair, he did say that he didn't think equities are "grossly overpriced," lest anyone think that the guy who could never see a bubble might have actually seen one.
Make no mistake, there is no question that stocks are overvalued by every meaningful metric that has historical support for its predictive power. That does not mean (as we have all learned over the past few years) that the market will decline tomorrow, but it does ensure that future real returns will be punk over a reasonably-long investment horizon.
It will certainly be interesting to see how long markets can remain levitated when the Fed's buying ceases completely. Frankly, I am a bit surprised that these valuation levels have persisted even this long, especially in the face of rising global tensions and rising inflation. I am a little less surprised that commodities have corrected so much this month after what was a steady but uninspiring move higher over the first 1-2 quarters of 2014. Commodities are simply a reviled asset class at the moment (which makes me love them all the more).
Do not mistake the Fed's statement (that at the margin the chance of inflation less than 2% is slightly less likely) for hawkishness. And don't read hawkishness into the mild dissent by Plosser, who merely wanted to remove the reference to time in the description of when raising rates will be appropriate. Chicago Fed President Evans was the guy who originally wanted to "parameterize" the decision to tighten by putting numbers on the unemployment rate and inflation levels that would be tolerable to the Fed (the "Evans Rule")…levels which the economy subsequently blasted through without any indication that the Fed cared. But Evans himself recently said that "it's not a catastrophe to overshoot inflation by some amount." Fed officials are walking back the standards for what constitutes worrisome inflation, in the same way that they walked back the standards for what constitutes too-low an unemployment rate.
This is a good point at which to recall the "Wesbury Map," which laid out the excuses the Fed can be expected to make when inflation starts being problematic. Wesbury had this list:
- Higher inflation is due to commodities, and core inflation remains tame.
- Higher core inflation due to housing is just due to housing prices bouncing back to normal, and that's temporary.
- It's not actual inflation that matters, but what the Fed projects it to be.
- It's okay for inflation to run a little above 2% for a while because it was under that level for so long.
- Increasing price pressures are due to something temporary like a weaker dollar or a temporary increase in money velocity or the multiplier.
- Well, 3-4% inflation isn't that bad for the economy, anyway.
I think the order of these excuses can change, but they're all excuses we can expect to hear trotted out. Charles Evans should have just shouted "FOUR!" Instead, what he actually said was
"Even a 2.4 percent inflation rate, if it's reasonably well controlled, and the rest of the economy is doing ok, and then policy is being adjusted in order to keep that within a, under a 2.5 percent range — I think that can work out."
That makes sense. 2.4% is okay, as long as they limit it to 2.5%. That's awfully fine control, considering that they don't normally even have the direction right.
Now, although the Evans speech was a couple of weeks ago I want to point out something else that he said, because it is a dangerous error in the making. He argued that inflation isn't worrisome unless it is tied to wage inflation. I have pointed out before that wages don't lead inflation; this is a pernicious myth. It is difficult to demonstrate that with econometrics because the data is very noisy, but it is easy to demonstrate another way. If wages led inflation, then we would surely all love inflation, because our buying power would be expanding when inflation increased (since our wages would have already increased prior to inflation increasing). We know, viscerally, that this is not true.
But economists, evidently, do not. The question below is from a great paper by Bob Shiller called "Why Do People Dislike Inflation" (Shiller, Robert, "Why Do People Dislike Inflation?", NBER Working Paper #5539, April 1996. ©1996 by Robert J. Shiller. Available at http://www.nber.org/papers/w5539). This is a survey question and response, with the economist-given answer separated out from the answer given by real people.
Economists go with the classic answer that inflation is bad mainly because of "menu costs" and other frictions. But almost everyone else knows that inflation makes us poorer, and that very fact implies that wages follow inflation rather than lead.
Put another way: if Evans is going to be calm about inflation until wage inflation is above 3.5%, then we can expect CPI inflation to be streaking towards 4% before he gets antsy about tightening. Maybe this is why the stock market is so exuberant: although the Fed has tightened by removing the extra QE3, a further tightening is evidently a very long way off.
Plight of the Fed Model
A very common refrain among stock market bulls these days – and an objection some made to my remarks yesterday that markets are still not making sense – is that the low level of interest rates warrants a high multiple, since future earnings are being discounted at a lower interest rate.
My usual response, and the response from far more educated people than me, like Cliff Asness who published "Fight the Fed Model" back in 2003, is that low interest rates explain high multiples, but they do not justify high multiples. High multiples have always historically been followed – whether explained by low interest rates or not – by poor returns, so it does no good to say "multiples are high because rates are low." Either way, when multiples are high you are supposed to disinvest.
But I thought it would also be useful, for people who are not as familiar with the argument and only familiar with the sound bite, to see the actual data behind the proposition. So, below, I have a chart of year-end Shiller P/E ratios, since 1900, plotted against year-end 10-year nominal interest rates.
Note that it is generally true that lower nominal interest rates are associated with higher multiples, although it is far more clear that higher nominal interest rates are associated with lower multiples, whether we are talking about the long tail to the right (obviously from the early 1980s) or the smaller tail in the middle that dates from around 1920 (when 5% was thought to be a pretty high interest rate). But, either way, the current multiples represent high valuations whether you compare them to high-rate periods or low-rate periods. The exception is clearly from the late 1990s, when the long downtrend in interest rates helped spark a bubble, and incidentally spurred the first widespread discussion/excuse of the so-called "Fed model." If you take out that bubble, and you take out the 1980s high-rates tail, then there is left just a cloud of points although there does seem to be some mild slope to it from lower-right to upper-left.
But in short, the data is hardly crystal clear in suggesting that low interest rates can explain these multiples, never mind justify them.
More interesting is what you get if you compare P/E ratios to real rates. Because equities are real assets, you should technically use a real discount rate. Since real economic growth in earnings should be reflected in higher real interest rates generally, only the incremental real growth in earnings should be discounted into higher values today. This eliminates, in other words, some of the 'money illusion' aspect of the behavior of equity multiples.
I haven't seen a chart like this before, probably because the history of real interest rates in the U.S. only dates to 1997. However, using a model developed by Enduring Investments (and used as part of one of our investment strategies), we can translate those historical nominal rates into the real rates we would have expected to see, and that allows us to produce this chart of year-end Shiller P/E ratios, since 1900, plotted against year-end 10-year real interest rates – using Enduring's model until 1997, and actual 10-year real interest rates thereafter.
I find this picture much more interesting, because there seems to be almost no directionality to it at all. The 'tail' at upper right comes from the late 1990s, when again we had the equity bubble but we also had real rates that were higher than at equilibrium since the Treasury's TIPS program was still new and TIPS were very cheap. But other than that tail, there is simply no trend. The r-squared is 0.02 and the slope of the regression line is not statistically different from zero.
And, in that context, we can again see more clearly that the current point is simply at the high end of the cloud of historical points. The low level of real interest rates – actually quite a bit higher than they were last year – is of no help whatsoever.
None of that should be particularly surprising, except for the buy-and-hope crowd. But I thought it constructive to show the charts for your amusement and/or edification.
Awareness of Inflation, But No Fear Yet
Suddenly, there is a bunch of talk about inflation. From analysts like Grant Williams to media outlets like MarketWatch and the Wall Street Journal (to be sure, the financial media still tell us not to worry about inflation and keep on buying 'dem stocks, such as Barron's argues here), and even Wall Street economists like those from Soc Gen and Deutsche Bank…just two name two of many Johnny-come-latelys.
It is a little surprising how rapidly the articles about possibly higher inflation started showing up in the media after we had a bottoming in the core measures. Sure, it was easy to project the bottoming in those core measures if you were paying attention to the base effects and noticing that the measures of central tendency that are more immune to those base effects never decelerated much (see median CPI), but still somehow a lot of people were taken by surprise if the uptick in media stories is any indication.
I actually have an offbeat read of that phenomenon, though. I think that many of these analysts, media outlets, and economists just want to have some record of being on the inflation story at a time they consider early. Interestingly enough, while there is no doubt that the volume of inflation coverage is up in the days since the CPI report, there is still no general alarm. The chart below from Google Trends shows the relative trend in the search term "rising inflation." It has shown absolutely nothing since the early days of extraordinary central bank intervention.
Now, I don't really care very much when the fear of inflation broadens. It is the phenomenon of inflation, not the fear of it, which causes the most damage to society. However, there is no doubt that the fear of inflation definitely could cause damage to markets much sooner than inflation itself can. The concern has been rising in narrow pockets of the markets where inflation itself is actually traded, but because we trade headline inflation the information has been obscured. The chart below (source: Enduring Investments) shows the 1-year headline inflation swap, in black, which has risen from about 1.4% to 2.2% since November. But the green line shows the implied core inflation extracted from those swap quotes, and that line has risen from 1.2% in December to 2.6% or so now. That is far more significant – 2.6% core inflation over the next year would mean core PCE would exceed 2% by next spring. This is a very reasonable expectation, but as I said it is still only a narrow part of the market that is willing to bet that way.
If I was long equities – which I am not, as our four-asset-class model currently has only a 7.4% weight in stocks – then I would keep an eye on the search terms and for other anecdotal evidence that inflation fears are starting to actually rise among investors, rather than just being the probably-cynical musings of people who don't want to be seen as having missed the signs (even if they don't really believe it).
The Boredom Always Ends
After fairly boring trading through the first half of the month, the equity market has shot to new highs over the last few sessions. Could it be mere boredom on the part of investors, who are seeking more excitement?
Stocks have been expensive for a while, with Shiller P/Es near 25, yet the battle cry among bulls has been "but look, the trailing P/E is still low." Although the trailing P/E recently has incorporated earnings that represented unusually high margins (see chart, source Bloomberg), the "see no evil" crowd brushed that complaint aside. But now, the trailing P/E ratio of the S&P 500 is at 17.6, and at 18.7 before the write-off of "extraordinary items" (which, while extraordinary for any given company in a given year, are not extraordinary for the index of a whole, which always has some of these write-offs).
So it isn't as if the equity market is now rising because earnings have been rising and prices are just catching up. The trailing P/E is now at a level slightly higher than it was prior to the 2007 top, and on par with the levels of the Go-Go Sixties prior to the malaise of the 1970s (see chart, source Bloomberg). Let us not forget that earnings quality isn't what it once was, either. And again: I am not a fan of a 1-year trailing P/E; I am merely pointing out that even this bullish argument is going away.
To be sure, trailing P/Es aren't at the pre-crash levels of 1987 or 1999 – but, again, let us recall that margins are at cyclical highs, so that if we look at the S&P price/sales ratio, we again get a disturbing view that has equity valuations higher than at any time other than the 1999 bubble run-up. (See chart, source Bloomberg – note that Bloomberg history for this series only goes back to 1990.)
Now, some observers will draw exaggerated offense to the notion that stocks might be priced for somewhat poor forward returns, and insist that the recent rally in bonds means that the ratio of the "Earnings yield" to bond yields is merely being maintained. Aside from the fact that this "Fed model" is explanatory rather than predictive (that is, it helps explain why prices are high, while not suggesting they will remain high…and indeed, rather suggesting the opposite as future returns are inversely correlated with the P/E of the starting point of the holding period), we also can't give credit for the equity rally to the bond market rally this year from 3% 10-year yields to 2.50% yields without simultaneously asking why investors didn't sell stocks when yields rose from 1.70% to 3% last year.
Admittedly, I was probably saying roughly the same thing at this point last year. Sour grapes? No, it just concerns the question of investing rules versus trading rules. In other words: I'm not telling you how to vote; I'm telling you how to weigh. Nothing has changed valuation-wise since last year, other than the fact that the market as a whole is growing more expensive.
On the "good news" front, corporate credit growth has been re-accelerating again. This is somewhat of a sine qua non for faster economic growth. We had seen decent credit growth in 2011 and into 2012, but when QE3 kicked off loan activity had ebbed. But now quarterly growth in commercial credit is nearing a 10% annual rate (see chart, source Board of Governors), something that hasn't happened since the beginning of 2008 – other than for a brief spike around the crisis itself.
While this is good news, it is not unmitigated good news considering that the Federal Reserve as yet has no viable plan for exiting QE before all of those horses leave the barn. One of the biggest concerns, in terms of a risk of unpleasant surprise, is that few seem to be giving the inflation risk much thought, either in markets where 10-year inflation swaps float in the middle of the 2.40%-2.60% range they have occupied for the last twelve months, or in policymaker circles. This is on my mind today because I was reading an article published on the BLS website entitled "One hundred years of price change: the Consumer Price Index and the American inflation experience" and ran across this passage:
"Why the return of inflation when it seemed to be guarded against and feared? One possibility is a change in the perspective of policymakers. Some have argued that inflation was tempered in the 1950s by a Federal Reserve that, believing that inflation would reduce unemployment in the short term but increase it in the long term, was willing to contract the economy to prevent inflation from growing. By the 1960s, however, the notion of the Phillips curve, a straightforward tradeoff between inflation and unemployment, ruled the day. Citing the curve, policymakers believed that unemployment could be permanently reduced by accepting higher inflation. This view led to expansionary monetary and fiscal policies that in turn led to booming growth, but also inflationary pressures. However much policymakers professed to fear inflation, the policies they pursued seemed to reflect other priorities. The federal government ran deficits throughout the 1960s, with steadily increasing deficits starting in 1966.
Aside from the dates, it strikes me that this paragraph could have been written today. The Phillips Curve, now "augmented," is still a key tool in the Fed economist's toolkit even as responsible control of the money supply is deemed passé. As for accepting higher inflation the FOMC changed its inflation target a couple of years ago to be 2% on the PCE, which was implicitly a bump higher from the previous 2% CPI target since PCE is normally 0.3% or so below CPI, and various officials have mooted the idea of letting price increases exceed that rate "for a time" since expectations are well-grounded. And then, of course, you have economists like Krugman arguing for a higher inflation target. Not that we ought to pay any attention to Krugman, but somebody invited him to speak at that conference and that suggests he still has credibility somewhere.
I must say that I don't believe in an end to history, in which a permanent and pleasant equilibrium exists in capital markets and economies, which both can continue to expand at a reasonable pace with low and fairly stable inflation and interest rates and generous profit margins. If I did believe in such a thing, then I might think that we had arrived; and then perhaps I would see equity multiples and bond yields as reasonable and sustainable. But I do not, because I have already lived through three periods where the VIX was in the 10-12 range: in the 1990s, in 2005-2007, and in 2013-2014. The first two periods produced very exciting finishes. The boredom always ends, and usually abruptly.
Deflation, Indeed!
Today's post-CPI update is later than usual (normally, on CPI day I 'tweet' my impressions as I have them). A prospect meeting got in the way – yes, isn't it interesting that there is demand for creative inflation-linked solutions?
Probably, after today, this will be a trifle less surprising. Core inflation surprised on the high side. Consensus had been for the month-over-month figure to be +0.1%; instead it printed +0.236%. This pushed the year-on-year core inflation rate to 1.826%, the highest it has been in a year…and yet still the lowest it is likely to be for a very long time.
So, with the wonderful perfection of timing that is only possible from elite policymakers, the Fed has begun to chirp about deflation fears at just exactly the time that core inflation is turning higher. Do recall that core inflation never got below 1.6% – very far from "deflation" – and was only that low because of well-known effects stemming from the impact of the sequester last year on Medicare payments. Median inflation, which eliminates the influence of small outlier decreases (and increases) on the number, scraped as low as 2.0%, and now sits at 2.2%. It has not been higher than that since mid-2012. Median inflation hasn't been higher than 2.3% since 2009, so it is fair to say that inflation is much closer to the highs of the last five years than to the lows. Deflation, indeed.
A closer view of the subcomponents do not give any less cause for concern. Of the eight major subcomponents, six (Food & Beverages, Apparel, Transportation, Medical Care, Recreation, and Education & Communication) accelerated on a year-over-year basis while only two (Housing and "Other") decelerated.
At first glance, that sounds promising. Housing inflation dropped to 2.5% from 2.8%, and those people who are worried about another housing bust right now will be quick to seize on that deceleration. Housing inflation, which is 41% of the total consumption basket, has been a primary driver of core inflation's recovery in recent months so a deceleration would be welcome. But a closer look suggests that the number for Housing overstates the 'deceleration' case considerably. "Fuels and utilities," which is 5.2% of the entire consumption basket and about 1/8th of Housing, dropped from 6.8% y/y to 4.2%. That was the entire source of the deceleration in housing. The larger pieces, which are also much more persistent, were higher: Primary rents rose from 2.88% y/y to 3.05% y/y, while Owners' Equivalent Rent was roughly flat at 2.62% compared to 2.61%. So it is perhaps too early to panic about deflation, since the rise in OER and Primary rents is right on schedule as we have been marking it for some time (see chart below, source Enduring Investments).
Outside of housing, core inflation accelerated as well. Core ex-Shelter rose to 1.16% from 0.90%. The inflation is still significantly in services, as core commodities are still only -0.3% year/year. But that will rise soon, probably starting as soon as next month, based on our proxy measure.
As has been well advertised, the temporary depression in Medical Care inflation growth has officially ended. Now that April 2013 is out of the year/year data, the Medical Care major group saw prices rise 2.42% over the last year compared with 2.17% y/y a month ago. Medicinal drugs are at +1.70% compared with +1.44%. Medical equipment and supplies -1.39% vs -1.53%. Hospital and related services +5.55% vs 4.69%. I don't see the deflation, do you?
This rise in CPI was broad and deep, with nearly 80% of the lower-level indices seeing increases in the y/y rate. It is hard to find any major component about which I would have to express concern, if I was a Federal Reserve official worried about deflation. The breadth of increase is itself a signal. When some prices go up, it is a change in relative prices and will be considered inflation by some people (those who are sensitive to those prices) and not so much by others. But "inflation" is really about a general rise in prices, in which most goods and services participate. As I mentioned above, not all goods prices are participating but in general most prices are rising and, if this month is any gauge, accelerating.
We should hesitate to read too much into any one month's inflation number. There is a lot of noise in any economic data, so that it can be hard to discern the signal. I believe that there is enough underlying strength here that this is in fact more signal than noise, though, and so I continue to expect core inflation to accelerate for the balance of the year.
I have no idea how long Fed officials will continue to fret about deflation, nor how long it will take the concern to shift to inflation. I suspect it will take a long time, although the stock market today seems less certain on that point with the S&P at this writing down -1.3%. Curiously bonds, which are clearly overvalued if inflation is not contained, rallied today (although breakevens predictably widened). But I think all markets are safe for some time from the risk that central bankers will develop a concern about inflation that is acute enough to spur them to action. (Not to mention that it isn't at all clear to me what action they could take that would have an effect on the inflation dynamic in any reasonable time frame given that excess reserves must be drained first before any tightening has teeth). This does not mean that I am sanguine about the prospects for nominal asset classes such as stocks and nominal bonds – but at some point, they won't need the Fed's cudgel to persuade them to re-price. When inflation is obvious enough to all, that will be sufficient.


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talk to caris yo
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Recent Comments
|1 day 3 hours ago
|To be fair
Michigan doesn't really have a football team this year either.
|3 weeks 21 hours ago
|exhibition Nov. 15th I believe
vs Hillsdale. Regular season starts 17th vs. Bucknell in regional round of the legends classic.
|7 weeks 23 hours ago
|it's because its posted as a combined one below
|8 weeks 5 days ago
|that article is 9 months old
and an ace Williams article. very little credence should be given to this.
|14 weeks 3 days ago
|It's mindblowing to me
that we are somehow going to be one of the youngest teams in the country for what seems to be the 12th year in a row.
|15 weeks 3 days ago
|I kind of fall in this boat too
My only issue is that Oregon manages to run out 57 different combos every year that are, at worst, mildly ugly, whereas everyone that we have run out there range from hideous to "What in the holy hell is that"
|16 weeks 37 min ago
|Not 100% sure on this
but seems to me that there didn't used to be lines on games between 1A and 1AA teams, of which "they" were a 1AA last time.
|16 weeks 6 days ago
|I'd settle
for us blocking a fucking a gap blitz once or twice this year
|21 weeks 1 day ago
|that should be required celebration for every
that should be required celebration for every goal
|21 weeks 1 day ago
|I wanted 6-0
but this is even better
|21 weeks 1 day ago
|6-0 Netherlands
I don't think that's an unreasonable request.
It's not worth winning if you can't win big.
|23 weeks 1 day ago
|as a dad of a 4 and 2 yr old
there is no such thing as quiet toddler fun :)
|24 weeks 6 days ago
|Just take my upvote
Such a great scene in that movie.
|26 weeks 3 days ago
|It's not worth winning if you can't win
It's not worth winning if you can't win big
|26 weeks 5 days ago
|Love the My Cousin Vinny reference
"Dead-on balls accurate"
|27 weeks 17 hours ago
|holy shit
wow, what a game
|30 weeks 6 days ago
|dinwiddie tore his knee up
late in the season, I'd be surprised if he came out
|31 weeks 2 days ago
|what a great game
playoff hockey at its finest
|34 weeks 22 hours ago
Win the game. End.
|34 weeks 5 days ago
|game is at Lucas oil stadium
not bankers life fieldhouse
|35 weeks 23 hours ago
|won't be announced til tonight
my guess is that they will have msu and our games at opposite times. if it's msu/Virginia, I bet they get they get the 7 pm slot and we play the late game
|35 weeks 1 day ago
|my favorite was
the one they got back when an airball caromed off Morgans shoulder
|36 weeks 2 days ago
|the internet
you win it
|36 weeks 4 days ago
|The thing that stands out to me
Is how often he starts the dances before or as the shot is going up. The force is strong in this one....
|36 weeks 4 days ago
|that gap gets larger
if you stretch it to the point where we beat msu at the breslin in 2011, finished that season 8-3 I believe
|36 weeks 6 days ago
|not sure dakich could be a wr
he didn't make much effort to keep 2 feet in bounds and he did not make a football move before flipping it to the ref, gotta make sure to complete the process
|37 weeks 40 min ago
|It's Wright State, not Weber State
Weber State is in the Big Sky conference, I believe.
|37 weeks 2 hours ago
|I think this has to be an error
Lunardi normally goes with either the leader of the conference standings or the highest RPI rating if ties are in place. As you said, WMU is the #1 seed in the MAC tourney, so my guess is this is supposed to be Western instead of Eastern.
|37 weeks 18 hours ago
|this game
this is a fantastic effing game.
|37 weeks 4 days ago
|this thread
should end well.


text:
Other Math Archive: Questions from September 16, 2011
Anonymous askedThe population of deer in a forest, before humans began hunting them, grew according to the logistic... Show moreThe population of deer in a forest, before humans began hunting them, grew according to the logistic population growth equation
Rewrite this differential equation in the form
= kP(M-P)
to find the value of k and M.
k =
What is the stable equilibrium population of deer in the forest?
Now suppose that the deer begin to be hunted at a rate of h=6.4 deer per year so that the new differential equation now has the form
= kP(M-P) - h
What is the stable equilibrium population of deer in the forest now that they are being hunted? • Show less1 answer
Anonymous asked1 answer
Anonymous askeddave buys a vehicle for 20,000 and it deperciates at 8%, mark buys a vehicle for 13000 and it deperc... More »1 answer
Anonymous asked2 answers
sarperturker askedis any vector space, then the non-emp... Show more
Carefully write a proof of one of the following results.
1 answer
- If V is any vector space, then the non-empty subset W V is a subspace of V if, and only if, for each u and v in W and all scalars α and β, the vector αu + βv is in W.
- The set of all solutions to the homogenous equation aw + bx + cy + dz = 0 is a subspace of 4, where a, b, c, and d are real constants.
- Any set consisting of two non-zero vectors is linearly independent if, and only if, one vector is not a scalar multiple of the other.
- Any set of three vectors in 2 is linearly dependent
Anonymous askeds time to go shopping! You grab your Best Purchase credit card, wh... Show morePart II: Open/Closed End Credit
It's time to go shopping! You grab your Best Purchase credit card, which has an annual interest rate of 18%. Assume that you have a previous charged balance of $285.76 (before interest has been applied) on the card. On your shopping trip, you purchased three items: a Blu-ray player, two 4-GB flash drives, and a 19-inch flat-screen television. You purchase all the items on your credit card for a total of $352.18. When the bill comes at the end of the month you decide to pay all of the charges. Answer the following questions, showing any needed calculations. (Round all your answers to nearest hundredth or cent.)
•What is the monthly interest rate?
•What are the interest charges on the card? (Calculate only on last month's unpaid balance)
•What is the total balance on your card?
Part III: Simple Interest (Applying Percentages, Decimals, and Fractions)
Student loans are a hot discussion when it comes to paying back not only the initial borrowed amount but interest on top of the loan. Typical student loans do not start accumulating interest until after the student has been out of school, usually one year. Base the following that the individual has been out of school and is starting to look at the interest on a student loan.
•Give an example of an amount of a realistic student loan for an individual that attended a university for at least 2 years.
•Research and find the current average interest rate for student loans. Be sure to reference the site(s) you chose your interest rate.
•How much interest was charged at the end of the first day of the loan (assuming no payments have been made and interest accumulates at the end of the first day)? Do you find this number surprising?
•How much interest has been accumulated after one year of the loan (again assuming no payments have been made and interest accumulates at the end of the first year)?
•The loan agency has allowed you to defer the loan for one year if you pay 8% of the original loan today. What is the amount that you would send the loan agency? What is the new loan amount?
•Find the interest on the new loan amount, after paying 8% off, for one day and then again for one year. Do you think paying the 8% was worth it when viewing the interest accumulated by day or by year? Discuss when this 8% might be beneficial for paying off part of the original loan. • Show less1 answer
Anonymous askedIn 2006, Ryan Howard of the Philadelphia Phillies hit 58 home runs with 581 "at-bats". In the same y... Show moreIn 2006, Ryan Howard of the Philadelphia Phillies hit 58 home runs with 581 "at-bats". In the same year, David Ortiz of the Boston Red Sox hit 54 home runs with 558 "at-bats."
A.)What ar the rates of at-bats per home run for Ryan and David? Round to the nearest tenth.
B.)Which person hit home runs more often? • Show less1 answer
ElegantCircle7547 asked1.6 A college randomly selected 100 students to record their age and address. (a) What is the popula1 answer
Anonymous askedProve this using common axioms. please show which axiom you used... Show more
Given (b n a) -> C Prove a->(b->c)
Prove this using common axioms. please show which axiom you used for each step of the proof.• Show less2 answers
iahawks077 askedAs a professional photographer, Marion has seen the trend away from film cameras as customers purcha... Show moreAs a professional photographer, Marion has seen the trend away from film cameras as customers purchase low-end digital cameras and printers in order to avoid processing fees associated with film-based cameras. She would like to offer a new service to customers by offering superior quality digital printing using advanced pigment inks to produce high-quality color prints. In order to offer this service, Marion will need to invest in a state-of-the-art photo printer through her photography supply company at a list price of $7,895, plus sales tax of 7.25%. The supply company is offering cash terms of 3/15, n/30 with a 2.5% service charge on late payments, or 90 days "same as cash" financing if Marion is approved for a company credit card. They also offer a payment plan (for the purchase price and the sales tax) at 23% annual simple interest for the first 90 days, plus 2% simple interest per month on the unpaid balance after 90 days.
She calls the supply company to inquire about the terms and makes some notes:
- 3/15 means 3% discount (only on the price, not the sales tax) if paid within 15 days of purchase
- n/30 with 2.5% service charge on late payments means she can pay the cash price until 30 days, or cash price plus 2.5% after 30 days
- 90 days "same as cash" means that if she applies for and is approved for a company credit card, she can pay the cash price up to 90 days after purchase.
a. (5 points) If Marion takes the cash option and pays for the printer within the 15 day discount period, how much will she save?
b. (5 points) If she takes the 90 days same as cash option and purchases the printer on December 20, using exact time, what is her deadline for paying no interest in a non-leap year? How about in a leap year? [Find using exact time]
Answer – Non-Leap Year:
Answer - Leap Year:
c. (5 points) If Marion takes the 90 days "same as cash" option and pays within 90 days, compute the amount of ordinary interest she owes? If she can't pay until April 20, what would her payoff be including the additional month of interest (note that the problem specifies 2% simple interest per month)?
• Show less1 answer
Anonymous askedShow that the subspace (a,b) of R is homeomorphic with (0,1) and the subspace [a,b] of R is homeomor... More »2 answers
Anonymous asked1 answer
Anonymous asked1 answer
Anonymous asked2 answers
Anonymous askedWrite a program that reads an integer between 0 and 1000 and adds all the digits in the integer. For... Show moreWrite a program that reads an integer between 0 and 1000 and adds all the digits in the integer. For
example, if an integer is 932, the sum of all its digits is 14.
Use the % operator to extract digits, and use the / operator to remove the extracted digit. For
instance, 932 % 10 = 2 and 932 / 10 = 93 • Show less1 answer
BlushingLunch9365 askedConstruct an Excel IF statement in cell B7 which will verify that the given Total Seconds indeed eq... Show more
Construct an Excel IF statement in cell B7 which will verify that the given Total Seconds indeed equals the calculated number of Hours, Minutes and Seconds. Refer the the worksheet above.
NOTE: the logical test of your IF statement will be one that verifies that the entry in cell B1 equals B3*3600+B4*60+B5*1.
I've entered everything in the worksheet. I just need help with WHAT FORMULA TO PUT INTO cell B7.• Show less1 answer
Anonymous askedDictator Dim wants to replace counting, in particular, counting the population of his land. To keep... Show moreDictator Dim wants to replace counting, in particular, counting the population of his land. To keep an accurate population count, Dictator Dim has instructed his secretary to add one + symbol to a record each time a citizen is born, and one - symbol to the record whenever a citizen dies. This has been going on ever since his rule began.
Dictator Dim is not concerned so much with the actual total population of his lands, just with the net change in population since his rule began. He would be forever disgraced if the net population change were ever negative. Refusing to solve this problem by counting, Dictator Dim instructs his secretary to find a sound and complete logic for the subset of all records that would not disgrace him.
More formally, define the following truth concept:
WFF's = {+; -}, i.e., all strings composed of only plus and minus symbols.
A WFF x is true if every prefix of x contains at least as many + symbols as - symbols.
Find a logic for this truth concept by proving that it is sound and complete. Hint: it may help to define additional judgement form(s). • Show less0 answers
Anonymous askedHow do I determine the equation of a curve from points on the curve.
For example: (1,2) (3,66) 5,570)... Show moreHow do I determine the equation of a curve from points on the curve.
For example: (1,2) (3,66) 5,570) and (7,2282) are points on a curve. How do I find the equation of that curve? • Show less2 answers
Anonymous askedand also i do not understand the common ratio or co... Show more
y√x or something like that i dont know relly! D:
and also i do not understand the common ratio or common diffrence• Show less1 answer
WackyCarrot965 askedLarry needs to fill a decorative pool with a base area of 130 square feet and a constant depth of 2 ... More »3 answers
Anonymous askedWHAT IS 'SPAM SPAM SPAM SPAM SPAM SPAM SPAM SPAM SPAM SPAM SPAM SPAM SPAM SPAM SPAM SPAM SPAM SP... More »1 answer


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What's the Most Stressful Thing in Life to Deal With? [POLL]
So it goes without saying that life can be a b**** at times, but we all deal with it one way or the other. Here are the top five stressful things in life we will all deal with at some point in life.


text:
- Northern Illinois to get $8.3 million for state construction projects
- Tree-lighting festival kicks off holiday season in Machesney Park
- Roscoe Boy Scout Troop's tree stand at new location
- Tips for selecting safe toys for kids this holiday season
- Prayer service for World AIDS Day Nov. 30
- Food Bank joins national #GivingTuesday movement
- Lee Hamilton: What lies ahead for Congress
- Rockford Public Schools faces $8.8 deficit, board OKs flat tax, HR chief
- Literary Hook: A holiday tradition: 'This Thanksgiving, Remember'
- Cold snap does not negate global warming
Experts rap Bushs speech
Experts rap Bushs speech
By Joe Baker, Senior Editor
President Bushs recently televised speech against Saddam Hussein has drawn fire from several government officials and analysts. They say it relied on slanted and sometimes false interpretations of available U.S. intelligence on Iraq.
The Guardian, a London newspaper, reported it has learned that officials of the CIA, the FBI and the Department of Energy have been under strong pressure to turn out reports backing the administration line. The newspaper said some were complying, some resisting and some simply saying nothing.
The former head of counter-intelligence at the CIA, Vincent Cannistraro, said: Basically, cooked information is working its way into high-level pronouncements, and theres a lot of unhappiness about it in intelligence, especially among analysts at the CIA.
Bush, in his speech, assured Americans that war was not imminent or unavoidable but still gave his most detailed case yet for using force against Saddam.
Government observers said some of his key allegations against the Baghdad regime are not supported by current intelligence information.
Bush repeated the claimfirst broached by senior members of his administrationthat Iraq has tried to import hardened aluminum tubes for gas centrifuges, which are used to enrich uranium for nuclear weapons. British Prime Minister Tony Blair brought up the same claim in his presentation to the British Parliament last month.
The governments own experts on nuclear weapons and centrifuges said, however, such tubes are more likely to be used to make conventional weapons. A Department of Energy specialist commented: I would just say there is not much support for that (nuclear) theory around here.
Former UN weapons inspector David Albright, himself a physicist, said there is disagreement between the experts and an official at the CIA over this issue.
He said some employees at the Energy Departments Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in California had been told to keep their doubts to themselves. Albright quoted one as saying: The administration can say what it wants, and we are expected to remain silent.
U.S. intelligence officials are highly skeptical of the presidents claims of links between Iraq and al-Qaeda. In his talk, Bush referred to a high-ranking al-Qaeda leader he said got medical treatment in Baghdad this year.
An intelligence source said intercepted telephone calls did not reveal any cooperation by Iraq on that score, even though the al-Qaeda leader did come there seeking treatment.
Intelligence experts also downgrade Bushs contention that Iraq has trained members of the terrorist group in poisons, bomb making and deadly games. A source familiar with the investigation of 9-11 said: The FBI has been pounded on to make this link.
President Bush also declared in his speech: Were concerned that Iraq is exploring ways of using these UAVs (drone aircraft) for missions targeting the United States.
Military experts pointed out the unmanned aircraft Iraq is making from trainer jets have a range of only a few hundred miles and pose no threats to targets in the U.S.
Cannistraro said the flow of intelligence to the top levels of the administration has been deliberately skewed by the chickenhawks in the Pentagon.
CIA assessments are being put aside by the Defense Department in favor of intelligence they are getting from various Iraqi exiles, he said. Machiavelli warned princes against listening to exiles. Well, that is what is happening now.


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Dalek Week Day 1: WTF?"So, Bovril," Deryn said, putting her hands on her hips as she faced the loris sitting atop the kitchen counter. "What kind of pie shall I make for Ma's visit?""Peach," Bovril chirped happily, eyeing the fruit sitting in the fruit bowl on the table."Peach, hm?" Deryn studied the bowl of fruit and considered the idea. "Alright. Sounds like a good plan."Deryn went about the kitchen, humming tunelessly while she prepared a crust and the filling.Bovril watched with mild interest before scuttling off the counter and around to the stereo in the corner. He expertly jumped atop of it and pressed the power button, then hit the "tape" button. A guitar started to play and Bovril giggled contentedly.Deryn paused as she dug through the cabinets and looked thoughtful. "One of Lilit's tapes?" she wondered aloud, then decided she didn't care and shrugged as she went back to her recipe."Movin' to the country, gonna eat a lotta peaches.Movin' to the country, I'm gonna eat me a lotta peaches."<
OMC: 20 Ways to Annoy EdwardPart 2 in a series of installments.---20 WAYS TO ANNOY
Edward Cullen!1. Give him a duck with a bite mark in it and say, Bella got hungry.2. Tell him that Rosalie killed Bella.3. Laugh when he goes to kill Rosalie.4. Take his prized CD collection.5. When he demands you give it back, warn him that you have a pack of angry werewolves behind you.6. If he doesnt believe you, release them.7. If he does believe you, release them anyway.8. Tell him that Bella is pregnant
with Jacob.10. Laugh when he freaks out.11. Run away when he finds out its not true.12. When hes thirsty, lock him in the closet with a human.13. Lock him in a room with Jacob and take bets on who makes it out alive.14. Tell him that Bella doesnt really love him.15. Whoop his butt in DDR.16. Whoop his butt in Guitar Hero III.17. Tell him that the end of eternity hell go to hell.18. Then tell him that Bellas going to heaven.19. Smash his pi
OMC: 20 Ways to Annoy BellaThe first in a series of many installments.---20 WAYS TO ANNOY
Bella Swann!1. Put her in a bathtub filled with blood.2. Watch her and laugh as you see her get sick.3. Run away when she tries to attack you for laughing at her.4. Tell her that Edward is dead.5. Laugh while you watch her cry.6. Tell her that JACOB killed Edward.7. Laugh as she goes out to kill Jacob.8. Tell her that Emmett met her mother.9. Tell her that Charlie hates her cooking.10. Lock her in the mall
with Alice.11. Have extreme makeover week.12. Give Bella a duck with a bite mark in it, shrug, and say, Edward got hungry.13. Break her truck.14. DENY IT!!15. Tell her that the Cullens moved to Russia and took Jacob with them
as a pet.17. Tell her that Edward thinks shes ugly.18. Say that Esme doesnt like her and doesnt want her and Edward to go out EVER AGAIN!! MUAHAHAHAHAHA!19. Watch her cry.20. Laugh. Hard.Bella slam
Forever SixteenForever Sixteen by BandGeek99--------------------------------------------------------------------------------Two years and three months. March of our junior year. Two years and three months. The time of my torture.Matt was supposed to be my best friend. Hell, he had the spirit of friendship in his goddam heart! And yet
he betrayed me.And Sora
Well, what can I say? I loved her. Deep down, in the bottom of my heart, I knew Id never find a girl Id love as much. My feelings must have been a nuisance to her, but she had to know. I had to tell her.I pulled on my coat and sneakers and shoved my iPod into my ears and turned the volume all the way up. Northern Downpour was playing, and the melody matched my mood: quiet and melancholy. I scribbled out a quick note for my sister when she came home and left the building.The day was grim and dark with heavy clouds that threatened to open on the city at any second. People hurried past, trying to reach
Yuki and the WoodsStopping by the Woods on a Snowy Evening by BandGeek99A short Yuki-centric fic based on Robert Frosts poem by the same title.We had to elaborate on the poem in English class by telling who the speaker was and why he was in the woods. I chose to write about Yuki, because it gives meaning to the poem for me. I tend to look at these things on a symbolic level, and so
I dont own Fruits Basket, nor do I own Stopping by the Woods on a Snowy Evening. They belong to Natsuki Takaya-sensei and Robert Frost, respectively.---Whose woods these are I think I know.His house is in the village though;He will not see me stopping hereTo watch his woods fill up with snow.My little horse must think it queerTo stop without a farmhouse nearBetween the woods and frozen lakeThe darkest evening of the year.He gives his harness bells a shakeTo ask if there is some mistake.The only other sound's the sweepOf easy wind and downy flake.The woods are lovely, dark a
Amadeus IshidaAmadeus IshidaMain Characters: Yamato and TakeruPairings: a hint of Mimato, implied Sorato (blech) and some real brotherly love ^^Summary: In a project to "expand his horizons", Yamato decides to pick up the violin and listen to nothing but Mozart. How does this change his relationship with his brother? Written for the Amadeus Ishida challenge at DigiChallenge!!I found a new website recently with all kinds of Digimon challenges, so I decided to try it out!! This was written listening to a song from Les Miserables, the hit musical sensation. The song? On My Own. Nothing to do with the story.HIT IT!!Me no own. You no sue. Capiche?000The strong reverberations of "Ode to Joy" rang through Ishida Yamato's small apartment bedroom. He sat on his bed, holding a binder full of music on his knees, and studied the notes hard. In his hands he held a violin and struggled to play along with the intensity of the recording.Is that F sharp? he wondered, squinting


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All Schools
(24) All Schools
(24) High Schools
(21) High Schools
(21) Elementary Schools
(24) Elementary Schools
(24) Preschools
(21) Preschools
(24) All Schools
(24) High Schools
(21) High Schools
(21) Elementary Schools
(24) Elementary Schools
(24) Preschools
(21) Preschools
There are 24 private schools in Illinois belonging to the American Association of Christian Schools (AACS), serving 3,347 students.
American Association of Christian Schools (AACS) Private Schools
- School Location Students Grades
RockfordBerean Baptist Christian School
5626 Safford Road
Rockford, IL, 61101
(815)962-4841(Baptist)223 students | Gr. PK-12
Des PlainesBrentwood Baptist Christian Academy
588 Dara James Rd
Des Plaines, IL, 60016
(847)298-3399(Baptist)70 students | Gr. PK-12
ChillicotheCalvary Baptist Academy
1028 W Cloverdale Road
Chillicothe, IL, 61523
(309)274-4343(Baptist)50 students | Gr. PK-12
Orland HillsChristian Hills School
9001 159th St
Orland Hills, IL, 60487
(708)349-7166(Pentecostal)102 students | Gr. PK-7
PeoriaEl Vista Baptist Academy
6301 N Syler Street
Peoria, IL, 61615
(309)692-8675(Baptist)24 students | Gr. PK-7
PekinFaith Baptist Christian School
1501 Howard Ct.
Pekin, IL, 61554
(309)347-6178(Baptist)111 students | Gr. PK-12
PanaFirst Baptist Christian Academy
114 Maple St
Pana, IL, 62557
(217)562-5054(Baptist)42 students | Gr. PK-12
DanvilleFirst Baptist Christian School
1211 N Vermilion St
Danville, IL, 61832
(217)442-2434(Baptist)132 students | Gr. PK-12
SpringfieldGrace Baptist Academy
2812 S Walnut St
Springfield, IL, 62704
(217)522-2881(Baptist)8 students | Gr. 1-12
GaysHeritage Baptist Academy
717 Front St
Gays, IL, 61928
(217)752-6672(Baptist)16 students | Gr. KG-10
FrankfortHeritage Christian School
21739 S Lagrange Road
Frankfort, IL, 60423
(815)464-9100(Baptist)67 students | Gr. PK-12
WashingtonIl Central Christian School
22648 Grosenbach Rd
Washington, IL, 61571
(309)698-2000(Baptist)102 students | Gr. PK-12
La SalleLa Salle Peru Christian School
Po Box 1043
La Salle, IL, 61301
(815)223-1037(Baptist)88 students | Gr. PK-12
WaukeganLake County Baptist School
1550 W Yorkhouse Road
Waukegan, IL, 60087
(847)623-7600(Baptist)163 students | Gr. PK-12
GlasfordLamarsh Baptist School
15701 W Glasford Canton Road
Glasford, IL, 61533
(309)697-4451(Baptist)26 students | Gr. 1-12
NilesLogos Christian Academy
7280 N Caldwell Ave
Niles, IL, 60714
(847)647-9456(Baptist)131 students | Gr. PK-12
Downers GroveMarquette Manor Baptist Academy
333 75th Street
Downers Grove, IL, 60516
(630)964-5363(Baptist)161 students | Gr. PK-12
ChampaignMontessori Habitat School
Po Box 172
Champaign, IL, 61824
(217)778-1151Montessori School58 students | Gr. PK-8
RockfordNorth Love Christian
5301 E Riverside Blvd
Rockford, IL, 61114
(815)877-6021(Baptist)174 students | Gr. PK-12
JolietRidgewood Baptist Academy
1968 Hillcrest Rd
Joliet, IL, 60433
(815)726-2121(Baptist)163 students | Gr. PK-12
RomeovilleRomeoville Christian Academy
301 W Normantown Rd
Romeoville, IL, 60446
(815)886-4850(Baptist)165 students | Gr. PK-12
SchaumburgSchaumburg Christian School
200 N Roselle Road
Schaumburg, IL, 60194
(847)885-3230(Baptist)1006 students | Gr. PK-12
SomonaukSomonauk Christian School
315 E North St
Somonauk, IL, 60552
(815)498-2313(Christian)120 students | Gr. PK-12
Oak LawnSouth Side Baptist School
5220 West 105th Street
Oak Lawn, IL, 60453
(708)425-3435(Baptist)145 students | Gr. PK-12
State Statistics
|About This State (IL)
|(IL) State Statistics
|Nationwide Statistics
|Population (Approximate)
|12,309,604 people
|304,788,332 people
|Age 25+ w/College Degree
|Median Household Income
Recent Articles
Updated October 26, 2014
What do you do when you are dissatisfied with your local public schools? Homeschool your children? Send them to private school? Let's look at your options.
Your religion matters to you. You want your child to attend a school which will combine academics and religious education. Here is an overview of what is available together with some links to denominational web sites.
Add things up and you'll quickly find the answer- math is crucial both in academics and the real world. By following these strategies and following personal training programs, students can uncover their weaknesses and conquer math.


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An eCommerce website will help you sell your products online to your customers and make your business online. Today we will throw some light on what it takes to develop an ecommerce website.
An eCommerce website will help you sell your products online to your customers and make your business online. Today we will throw some light on what it takes to develop an ecommerce website.
MEDIA RELEASE FÖR OMEDELBAR OMSÄTTNING (TEMPE, ARIZONA, den 2 September, 2013) – SV Probe Pte. Ltd. ("SV"), en av världens ledande leverantörer av högpresterande sonden kort, tillkännagav idag att det har slutfört business överföringsavtalet att köpa vissa sonden kortet business, teknik, immateriella rättigheter och tillgångar av Tokyo Cathode Laboratories ("TCL"). SV Probe's nystartade företag i Japan, "SV TCL KK" började officiella åtgärder på den 1 September, 2013.
I must admit that I'm lazy, and I'm cheap. This means that I don't have paid money management software to track my finances. Instead, I learned how to make a budget on spreadsheets and in notebooks, and used them for years. But regardless of this, Axis Capital Group Business Funding, were I loan for years now, never cheated on us.
This article is a demonstrative study about the problem and size of addiction in western area especially Taif city in Saudi Arabia through applying of international questionnaires guidelines. These questionnaires were used to assess tobacco, alcohol, and narcotics addiction. They were performed on secondary school male students in Taif ,Saudi Arabia, in addition to Roshd and Kafa and population as well. The total sample size for the present study is equal to 2514
The major purpose of this study is to find out the extent to which previous knowledge of Book-keeping will predict students' academic performance in Principles of Accounts 1 (BED 111) at the NCE 100 level in College of Education, Ikere Ekiti, Ekiti State, Nigeria. The study employed an ex-post facto research design with a sample of 371 selected from a population of 708. Three research hypotheses were tested at 0.05 level of significant using T-test, Standard deviation, Multiple regression and Analysis of variance. A finding from the study reveals that previous knowledge of Book-keeping significantly contributes to the prediction of academic performance of students in Principles of Accounts 1 (BED 111) among others. It was concluded that the influence of previous knowledge in teaching/learning process provides the background to framework upon which new learning will be placed. It is recommended that Joint Admission Matriculation Board (JAMB) should properly streamline
The Students' Variables as Predictor of Secondary School Students' Performance in Physics in Ekiti West Local Government Area of Ekiti State, Nigeria was investigated in this study. The study adopted a survey research design of the ex-post facto type. The sample comprised 120 senior secondary school II Physics students drawn from the six secondary schools in Ekiti West Local Government Area of Ekiti state. The instruments used for the study was questionnaire and past academic performance in Physics of the students involved in the study. Two research hypotheses were generated and analysed in the study using Pearson's Moment Correlation and Multiple regression statistical analysis. Among others, the study revealed that: students' variables (study habit, attitude to and interest of students in Physics) are better predictors of students' performance in Physics, while student gender has no influence on students academic performance (is a poor predictor).
Visit this site https://www.swiss-watch-retail.com for more information on Affordable Dive Watches. Affordable Dive Watches can help to keep you safe in the water. By taking a few extra minutes before and after your dive you can add years to the life of your watch. An ideal scuba dive watch will have many features that can save lives of the divers.
Leadership style is phenomenon which affects the productivity and quality nursing care. There is a lack of research studies in this area in Sri Lanka. The aim of this study was to examine the nurses' perception about their nurse managers' leadership style. The study sample comprised 160 nurses using simple random sampling. The research instruments were Demographic Data Recording Form and the Perceived Leadership Form Questionnaire. The reliability coefficient of the Perceived Leadership Form Questionnaire was 0.86 and the content validity index of was .91. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics. Nurses perceived their managers' leadership style as transformational (Mean = 3.35, SD =0.64), and transactional leadership as (Mean = 3.25, SD =0.45). The results of the study showed that nurses perceived their managers' leadership style as transformational. The study provides the opportunity for nurse managers to look into their nursing staff by examining
The aim of our study was to analysis a sample parents of tennis players in three different clubs situated in Tunisia and to incorporate the related inherent of the socio-economic factors of these issues and adopted the federal efforts to pout popularization of this sport. In our research we were incorporate for the achievement, the questionnaire as an investigative technique. The analysis focuses on a sample of 100 parents of players tennis clubs in three different situated in Greater Tunis. The questionnaire is, in fact, a set of ordered questions used to collect information's from a population determined in tennis practice. The multiple choice question has a predetermined range of responses. Four variables were adopted; the socioeconomic level, age, level of studying, quality of population. The results indicate after comparing the responses of the experimental group: It should be noted that parents who take their children to practice courts have different social groups;


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|My Wayfair
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"Color, texture, and quality" - these are the words that define Watershed. Established in 1967, the company is known for making affordable, comfortable products for the home. Watershed is a unique, 2-in-1 shower curtain that is sure to enhance your bathroom.


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Piedmont, Emory sue to ban heart procedure at Lawrenceville, GA, facility
Atlanta Journal-Constitution, August 19, 2009
Emory and Piedmont hospitals have filed lawsuits to prevent Gwinnett Medical Center from starting to perform open-heart surgeries at its Lawrenceville, GA, facility. The lawsuits aim to reverse a state approval of Gwinnett's open-heart program by the commissioner of the state Department of Community Health.
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|Blog Posts
Shopping. Simply mention the word and women everywhere rise like a phoenix from the ashes.
It's true. Retail therapy has done more to raise the collective consciousness and improve the self-esteem of modern women, than Oprah, Dr. Phil and Dr. Drew combined.
I mean, let's face it, who needs Prozac when there are credit cards, debit cards, checkbooks and cash?
Not only is it "workin' for us," but we don't need rehab either.
Except for me – I hate shopping. Now, don't get me wrong. Like most women, I am a firm believer in the Monroe Doctrine. You know, the one that states diamonds are a girl's best friend? It's just the long lines, crowded parking lots, and those gawdawful mirrors in the dressing rooms that tend to make me a little cranky - not to mention, the rude sales clerks.
Then, there are the unruly children I would like to trip or smack on the back of the head when they rumble and thrash their way through the Misses department, screaming for their mothers.
And or course, the seething and oh-so-hostile, glowers when I'm overheard hissing at the little urchins,
"Your mommy has left you, you little brat, now you're an orphan!"
Cruel, I know, but also extremely satisfying when they run off screaming in an absolute panic.
I can't help it.
When they maraud past me like a band of plundering gypsies with their cowlicks and snot running down their noses, my head spins a full 360-degree revolution. Then, before I know it, the most unholy eruption spews forth, right out of my mouth.
It's the darnedest thing.
It's not much better in a grocery store either. No matter what my fruity friends keep trying to tell me. I mean, they actually believe that a grocery store is calming - therapeutic even. Can you imagine? The way they talk, with their little coupons, sale papers and piped in New Age music and everything, you would think they were going there to get their Zen on or something.
But, that hasn't been my experience.
In fact, because of grocery stores I am thoroughly convinced that the last frontier of the Wild, Wild West, is still alive and well.
I have seen a kind of lawlessness and anarchy in the aisles of a grocery store that would horrify even Jessie James and send Wyatt Earp and Doc Holiday running for the hills.
An inhumane and cruel kind of violence – the kind that can only come from the belly of the beast or the darkest places of the heart.
Much like the games in the Roman coliseums or maybe, say, the World Wide Wrestling Federation.
Yeah, I know it's hard to imagine.
But what happened to me in Kroger one day, on aisle 4A, right there, between the jell-o vanilla pudding and the maraschino cherries, has made a believer out of me, leaving a lasting and indelible impression. And now? Well, I really do need Prozac.
But anyway, here's what happened:
It was in Kroger, like I said, on aisle 4A.
I was minding my own business, looking for a box of jell-o, sugar-free, vanilla pudding, lost in my own thoughts and feeling rather peaceful and centered.
As I rummaged through the boxes, I was thinking that maybe my fruity friends were onto something after all.
I mean, I did feel like I was getting a little Zen-ish or something. Sort of.
Or maybe I had finally found my Chi?
Anyway, that's when I heard it: a low, humming, sound, almost moaning, and even a little melancholy, I guess you could say, too. A lot like some of the old gospel spirituals I had heard, growing up in the Deep South.
Caught by surprise, I snapped out of my Zen, or my Chi, or whatever it was, and cocked my head quizzically toward the sound.
"What's that?" I thought, as I leaned into the direction it was coming from. Standing very still, I listened, with my eyes squinting, as if somehow that would improve my hearing or something.
After a few moments and hearing nothing further, I turned my attention back to the jell-o pudding, resuming my mental ruminations about the possibility of a Zen, or a Chi, or maybe even some of that Feng Shui stuff I had heard those Hollywood celebrities talk about.
"I guess it's possible," I thought to myself, as I stretched and peered and rifled through the shelves.
Reaching behind the raspberry jell-o, I located a box of 4-oz, artificially flavored, vanilla pudding. With a quick toss, I threw it into my buggy and began to roll off. Then I heard it again.
"What the…….?"
There was no mistaking it this time. It was dark and heavy sounding.
Kind of undulating and rolling through the air in waves.
It had a primal quality to it too. Guttural. Like a Bantu Zulu war chant or something.
Tiny bumps began to erupt all over my skin and the hairs on the back of my neck snapped to attention.
I had a peculiar and eerie feeling I was being watched.
Instinctively, I held my breath. Though, I can't exactly tell you why. Except maybe I wasn't entirely sure that the Zen, or the Chi or the Feng Shui wasn't about to suck me into a parallel universe or something.
I shot two quick, nervous glances to either end of the aisle, wondering if I should just make a run for it. Then it stopped.
Exhaling slowly- in a purely Zen sort of way, of course - I regained my composure. Turning back to my buggy, I was startled by a rather stodgy looking woman in a motorized shopping cart who had stopped right behind me.
"Oh" I said, chuckling nervously, my voice raising a full octave and taking two steps backward, "I'm sorry. I didn't see you there."
For what seemed like an eternity, she just stared at me – long enough for me to notice the tiny black hairs along her jaw line and above her upper lip.
Her face was puffy and thick.
Her skin was heavy with jowls and her eyes hollow and dark.
It could have just been the deep circles under her eyes. But, more likely, the heavy black eye-liner smeared unevenly around her lashes.
Her hair was dyed a cheap, bar-whore red and was coarse and brittle from over processing.
She wore a candy-apple red lipstick that clashed with her hair color and bled into the tiny wrinkles around her mouth.
Judging from her angry scowl, I concluded that she likely hadn't heard about the grocery store being a happy place, with all the Zen, and the Chi and the Feng Shui stuff.
Or worse yet, maybe she was just the Princess of Darkness who had misplaced her crown?
Then, abruptly, and without acknowledging me or my apology, she barked at me - in a punchy, scratchy voice, heavy with gravel,
"Is that lemon custard you just put in your buggy?"
"Huh? Wha…? Uh, no? "I stammered, completely perplexed and somewhat defensive. "It's vanilla pudding."
"Are you sure? She asked, her badly outlined eyes narrowing into slits, her voice, heavy with suspicion.
"Cause I coulda swore that it was lemon custard you just put in there."
"Oh, no ma'am," I said, trying to diffuse the tension with politeness. "It's vanilla pudding. Would you like me to get you some custard?"
"Don't bother." She spit. "I done looked and there ain't any more. But, now I'm thinking I mighta missed a box and you got it in your cart!"
"No, ma'am, I promise. It's vanilla pudding. See?" I answered, reaching into my cart for the box.
By this time, I was becoming more than a little annoyed with the Princess of Darkness, sans her crown, and her complete lack of social graces and good humor.
Clearly she had missed the memo about the Zen, the Chi and that other Feng-Shui crap.
"Who the heck does she think she is?" I grumbled to myself. "It's not my fault she blinded herself with her cheap eye-liner and can't see to find the custard. Here I am, minding my own business, looking for a box of vanilla pudding in Zen-country, and I get accosted by the spawn of Satan – who, by the way, also happened to be having one helluva bad hair day. And since when does Satan need custard anyway? "
Bristling with righteous indignation, I turned and stiffly thrust the box forward for her to see. She leaned in. The wheels of the buggy rolled slightly forward and it looked as if she were about to read the label.
But, then, faster than a blue-gill bass piercing the surface of a lake after a mosquito hawk, her arm shot forward and she snatched the box right out of my hand.
Thunderstruck by the sheer speed and velocity with which she ripped the box from me, I stood slack-jawed and speechless - which, as it turned out, was just long enough for the Princess of Darkness to reverse, downshift into low-buggy-gear and ride back to the gates of hell – with my pudding.
"Haaaaaaaaay," I wailed, in my deepest southern drawl. "That's my pudding!!"
"Oh, yeah?" She shot back. "Well, cry me a river why don't cha!"
And just like that. She was gone.
I resisted the urge to chase after her and call her names, like, Ozzy Osborne's evil twin or Alice Cooper's red-headed step-child.
Instead, I just stood there watching her, feeling smugly satisfied and sanctimonious. She still didn't have that custard.
When she rounded the corner, I turned back to my buggy, plucked another box of vanilla pudding from the shelf and pushed off down the aisle.
Any notions I had previously entertained about a Zen, or a Chi or a Feng-Shui, had quickly dissipated in the aftermath of an experience that can only be described as a modern day Apocalypse.
No, I had not ridden down the Thames in search of ivory, deep into the belly of Africa, nor had I penetrated the war ravaged jungles of Vietnam.
My story was much more innocent and innocuous. I had merely entered Kroger, on aisle 4A, in search of jell-o vanilla pudding.
But, it was there, that I too looked into a heart of darkness.
Oh, the horror. Oh, the horror.
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