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The Atlanta Fed's macroblog provides commentary on economic topics including monetary policy, macroeconomic developments, financial issues and Southeast regional trends.
Authors for macroblog are Dave Altig and other Atlanta Fed economists.
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August 08, 2014
Getting There?
To say that last week was somewhat eventful on the macroeconomic data front is probably an exercise in understatement. Relevant numbers on GDP growth (past and present), employment and unemployment, and consumer price inflation came in quick succession.
These data provide some of the context for our local Federal Open Market Committee participant's comments this week (for example, in the Wall Street Journal's Real Time Economics blog, with similar remarks made in an interview on CNBC's Closing Bell). From that Real Time Economics blog post:
Although the economy is clearly growing at a respectable rate, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Dennis Lockhart said Wednesday it is premature to start planning an early exit from the central bank's ultra-easy policy stance.
"I'm not ruling out" the idea the Fed may need to raise short-term interest rates earlier than many now expect, Mr. Lockhart said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal. But, at the same time, "I'm a little bit cautious" about the policy outlook, and still expect that when the first interest rate hike comes, it will likely happen somewhere in the second half of next year.
"I remain one who is looking for further validation that we are on a track that is going to make the path to our mandate objectives pretty irreversible," Mr. Lockhart said. "It's premature, even with the good numbers that have come in...to draw the conclusion that we are clearly on that positive path," he said.
Why so "cautious"? Here's the Atlanta Fed staff's take on the state of things, starting with GDP:
With the annual benchmark revision in hand, 2013 looks like the real deal, the year that the early bet on an acceleration of growth to the 3 percent range finally panned out. Notably, fiscal drag (following the late-2012 budget deal), which had been our go-to explanation of why GDP appeared to have fallen short of expectations once again, looks much less consequential on revision.
Is 2014 on track for a repeat (or, more specifically, comparable performance looking through the collection of special factors that weighed on the first quarter)? The second-quarter bounce of real GDP growth to near 4 percent seems encouraging, but we are not yet overly impressed. Final sales—a number that looks through the temporary contribution of changes in inventories—clocked in at a less-than-eye-popping 2.3 percent annual rate.
Furthermore, given the significant surprise in the first-quarter final GDP report when the medical-expenditure-soaked Quarterly Services Survey was finally folded in, we're inclined to be pretty careful about over-interpreting the second quarter this early. It's way too early for a victory dance.
Regarding labor markets, here is our favorite type of snapshot, courtesy of the Atlanta Fed's Labor Market Spider Chart:
There is a lot to like in that picture. Leading indicators, payroll employment, vacancies posted by employers, and small business confidence are fully recovered relative to their levels at the end of the Great Recession.
On the less positive side, the numbers of people who are marginally attached or who are working part-time while desiring full-time hours remain elevated, and the overall job-finding rate is still well below prerecession levels. Even so, these indicators are noticeably better than they were at this time last year.
That year-over-year improvement is an important observation: the period from mid-2012 to mid-2013 showed little progress in the broader measures of labor-market performance that we place in the resource "utilization" category. During the past year, these broad measures have improved at the same relative pace as the standard unemployment statistic.
We have been contending for some time that part-time for economic reasons (PTER) is an important factor in understanding ongoing sluggishness in wage growth, and we are not yet seeing anything much in the way of meaningful wage pressures:
There was, to be sure, a second-quarter spike in the employment cost index (ECI) measure of labor compensation growth, but that increase followed a sharp dip in the first quarter. Maybe the most recent ECI reading is telling us something that hourly earnings are not, but that still seems like a big maybe. Outside of some specific sectors and occupations (in manufacturing, for example), there is not much evidence of accelerating wage pressure in either the data or in anecdotes we get from our District contacts. We continue to believe that wage growth is most consistent with the view that that labor market slack persists, and underlying inflationary pressures (from wage costs, at least) are at bay.
Clearly, it's dubious to claim that wages help much in the way of making forward predictions on inflation (as shown, for example, in work from the Chicago Fed, confirming earlier research from our colleagues at the Cleveland Fed). And in any event, we are inclined to agree that the inflation outlook has, in fact, firmed up. At this time last year, it was hard to argue that the inflation trend was moving in the direction of the Committee's objective (let alone that it was not actually declining).
But here again, a declaration that the risks have clearly shifted in the direction of overshooting the FOMC's inflation goals seems wildly premature. Transitory factors have clearly elevated recent statistics. The year-over-year inflation rate is still only 1.5 percent, and by most cuts of the data, the trend still looks as close to that level as to 2 percent.
We do expect measured inflation trends to continue to move in the direction of 2 percent, but sustained performance toward that objective is still more conjecture than fact. (By the way, if you are bothered by the appeal to a measure of core personal consumption expenditures in that chart above, I direct you to this piece.)
All of this is by way of explaining why we here in Atlanta are "a little bit cautious" about joining any chorus singing from the we're-moving-on-up songbook. Paraphrasing from President Lockhart's comments this week, the first steps to policy normalization don't have to wait until the year-over-year inflation rate is consistently at 2 percent, or until all of the slack in the labor market is eliminated. But it is probably prudent to be fairly convinced that progress to those ends is unlikely to be reversed.
We may be getting there. We're just not quite there yet.
By Dave Altig, executive vice president and research director of the Atlanta Fed
August 8, 2014 in Economic conditions, Economics, Employment, Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy, GDP, Inflation, Labor Markets | Permalink
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August 05, 2014
What's Driving the Part-Time Labor Market? Results from an Atlanta Fed Survey
A subtle shift appears to be emerging in the public discussion of part-time employment in the United States. In monetary policy circles, elevated levels of part-time employment have generally been taken as a signal of lingering weakness in the labor market. (See, for example, here and here.) In this view, the rise in the use of part-time workers is a response to weak economic conditions, and the rate of part-time utilization will return to something approaching the prerecession average as firms respond to strengthening demand by increasing the hours of some of part-time staff who want more hours (thus reducing the number and share of part-time workers who would like full-time work) and by creating more full time jobs for those who want them (thus reducing the share of involuntary part-time workers).
But some labor market observers interpret the recent rise in the share of part-time jobs as more structural in nature—and hence less likely to be remedied by demand-inducing strategies such as monetary stimulus. If the arithmetic of having full-time or part-time workers has changed (for example, we frequently hear about increased compensation costs resulting from health care changes associated with the Affordable Care Act), then employers might lean more on part-time workers, at least while they can. Employers might be more able to do so while there is an ample supply of unemployed people and fewer full-time job opportunities, or if technology has made it sufficiently easy to manage workers' hours. Virginia Postrel at BloombergView recently wrote an essay about how technology is helping firms better manage part-time employees. From that essay:
For many part-time workers in the post-crash economy, life has become like endless jury duty. Scheduling software now lets employers constantly optimize who's working, better balancing labor costs and likely demand.
Perhaps the "demand" aspect of that passage refers to the level of overall spending in the economy (a point made in another BloombergView piece that Postrel's column cites). But there is an undeniable technological slant to this story—one that is not so obviously about the condition of the economy. And based on recent legislative proposals out of Congress, some lawmakers seem to see an issue that is likely to persist beyond the current business cycle.
So is our issue insufficient demand, about which monetary policy can arguably do something, or is it a change in the nature of work in the United States, which is arguably impervious to the effects of changes in monetary policy?
Both of these questions seem valid, and reasonable perspectives support both of them (see, for example, here and here). So as we try to sort this out, we turned to the Atlanta Fed's Regional Economic Information Network of business contacts and went to the source: employers themselves.
First, though, let's review a few facts. During the recession, full-time employment fell substantially while the number working part-time actually increased. Today, there are about 12 percent more people working part-time than before the recession and about 2 percent fewer people working full-time hours. As the chart below shows, this slow rebound in full-time employment—and the sustained level of part-time employment—has resulted in a greater share of employed working part-time: 19 percent of employed people are working fewer than 35 hours compared with 17 percent of all employed before the recession began.
To delve more deeply into these facts, we collected the responses of 339 firms with at least 20 employees to two questions: "Compared to before the recession, is your current mixture of part-time and full-time employees different? Do you think your current mixture will change over the next couple of years?" The responses (presented in the chart below) are weighted by national firm size and industry distributions.
About two-thirds of firms indicated their mixture of full-time and part-time employees was not currently different than before the recession began. One quarter of firms said they currently have a higher share of part-time employees, and 8 percent have a smaller share. Looking forward, 31 percent believe their workforce will possess a greater share of part-time workers in two years than it does now.
What did employers cite as the reason for the increase in part-time employment? Firms that currently have a higher share of part-time employees gave about equal weighting to cyclical and structural factors, as the chart below indicates. Most chose the options "Full-time employee compensation costs have increased relative to those of part time employees" and "Business conditions (sales) are not yet strong enough to justify converting part-time jobs to full-time" as either somewhat important or very important. These firms saw the other options—"Technology has made it easier to manage part-time employees" and "More job candidates are willing to take part-time jobs"—as less important.
The next chart shows that structural factors are on the minds of employers, especially among firms who haven't yet increased their share of part-time employees. Expectations of increases in the compensation cost of full-time employees relative to part-time workers were cited as the most important factor for all firms, but the difference in the relative importance among expected compensation costs and other factors was greater among firms that have not yet increased their part-time share of employment. Expected weak sales and future ample supply of people willing to work part-time were also seen as somewhat important factors for many firms.
Do firms anticipate a return to their prerecession mix of part-time and full-time employment? Although we didn't ask this question directly, the next chart constructs an answer based on their responses to our other two questions.
Compared with prerecession levels, 34 percent of firms indicated they expect the share of part-time employees in their firm to be higher in two years. This segment includes the vast majority (90 percent) of the 25 percent of firms who already have a higher share now than before the recession and 12 percent of other firms who currently have the same share but anticipate increases during the next two years. Surprisingly, only about 2 percent of firms currently have a higher share of part-time workers and anticipate decreases over the next two years (they are represented in the above chart in the "no change" category).
To sum up, the results have something for people on either side of the cyclical-versus-structural debate. Weak business conditions and the increase in the relative cost of full-time employees have been about equally important drivers of the increase in the use of part-time employees thus far. Thinking about the future, firms mostly cite an expected rise in the relative cost of full-time workers as the reason for shifting toward more part-time employees. So while there are some clear structural forces at work, a large amount of uncertainty around the future cost of health care and the future pace of economic growth also exists. The extent to which these factors will ultimately affect the share working part-time remains to be seen.
By Ellyn Terry, an economic policy analysis specialist in the Atlanta Fed's research department
August 5, 2014 in Economic conditions, Employment, Labor Markets | Permalink
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Good article, I tend to agree. I penned a note to my colleagues the other day that hits on one of the issues you mentioned above which is the compensation cost. I copied it here.
"I updated the wages and benefits chart I constructed for the current market update I did last September (bls data for the first chart is only through Q1 for some reason, but the ECI data in the second is through Q2). The new ECI data was released today and it looks like benefits pulled the most weight (+2.5%yoy for benefits and +1.8%yoy for wages). As a percentage of total comp, benefits continue to push higher, helped by health insurance and retirement&savings. In order for their to be real organic "wage" growth (i.e. wages and salaries), it seems to me that the cost pressure on corporations to pay for HC would have to come down. This would potentially give them greater flexibility in raising salaries. Again, people forget that total comp includes benefits and as I argued before, it's the "intangibles" that continue to trend higher as a percentage of total comp. So, what I'm reading suggests that Yellen is watching the ECI closely as one of her favored indicators; however, if the rising trend is due mainly to benefits and not take home salary, then the Fed may still have some breathing room before it moves to raise interest rates. However, the market does not think so as illustrated by the move in Treasury yields the past few days."
I had also attached a few charts, although I did not post them here, that illustrated that a greater percentage of total compensation is being driven by higher "benefits" primarily due to health care and retirement&savings. It's a big issue and I think underlies why "wages" may not be growing as quickly as some might expect given the tightening labor market.
Posted by:
John Mariscalco |
August 05, 2014 at 05:25 PM
That's really an interesting data. Nice post and I appreciate that.
Posted by:
Sam Daniel |
August 07, 2014 at 09:19 AM
This study confirms what I am hearing from our existing industries (Pasco County, FL industries are primarily under 100 employees).
I am hearing that contracts for goods and services are either shorter term contracts or for less quantities per order. This is forcing companies to keep more employees PT.
My opinion is that companies are having trouble in their long term planning due to economic uncertainty. No surprise with this group.
I think a follow up question further identifying "weak sales" i.e.; short term contracts, low quantity orders may find a few missing pieces to the PT labor puzzle.
Posted by:
Tom Ryan |
August 13, 2014 at 03:58 PM
July 18, 2014
Part-Time for Economic Reasons: A Cross-Industry Comparison
With employment trends having turned solidly positive in recent months, attention has focused on the quality of the jobs created. See, for example, the different perspectives of Mortimer Zuckerman in the Wall Street Journal and Derek Thompson in the Atlantic. Zuckerman highlights the persistently elevated level of part-time employment—a legacy of the cutbacks firms made during the recession—whereas Thompson points out that most employment growth on net since the end of the recession has come in the form of full-time jobs.
In measuring labor market slack, the part-time issue boils down to how much of the elevated level of part-time employment represents underutilized labor resources. The U-6 measure of unemployment, produced by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, counts as unemployed people who say they want to and are able to work a full-time schedule but are working part-time because of slack work or business conditions, or because they could find only part-time work. These individuals are usually referred to as working part-time for economic reasons (PTER). Other part-time workers are classified as working part-time for non-economic reasons (PTNER). Policymakers have been talking a lot about U-6 recently. See for example, here and here.
The "lollipop" chart below sheds some light on the diversity of the share of employment that is PTER and PTNER across industries. The "lolly" end of the lollipop denotes the average mix of employment that is PTER and PTNER in 2013 within each industry, and the size of the lolly represents the size of the industry. The bottom of the "stem" of each lollipop is the average PTER/PTNER mix in 2007. The red square lollipop is the percent of all employment that is PTER and PTNER for the United States as a whole. (Note that the industry classification is based on the worker's main job. Part-time is defined as less than 35 hours a week.)
The primary takeaways from the chart are:
- The percent of the workforce that is part time varies greatly across industries (compare for example, durable goods manufacturing with restaurants).
- All industries have a greater share of PTNER workers than PTER workers (for example, the restaurant industry in 2013 had 32 percent of workers who said they were PTNER and about 13 percent who declared themselves as PTER).
- All industries had a greater share of PTER workers in 2013 than in 2007 (all the lollipops point upwards).
- Most industries have a lower share of PTNER workers than in the past (most of the lollipops lean to the left).
- Most industries have a greater share of part-time workers (PTER + PTNER) than in the past (the increase in PTER exceeds the decline in PTNER for most industries).
Another fact that is a bit harder to see from this chart is that in 2007, industries with the largest part-time workforces did not necessarily have the largest PTER workforces. In 2013, it was more common for a large part-time workforce to be associated with a large PTER workforce. In other words, the growth in part-time worker utilization in industries such as restaurants and some segments of retail has bought with it more people who are working part-time involuntarily.
So the increase in PTER since 2007 is widespread. But is that a secular trend? If it is, then the increase in the PTER share would be evident since the recession as well. The next lollipop chart presents evidence by comparing 2013 with 2012:
This chart shows a recent general improvement. In fact, 25 of the 36 industries pictured in the chart above have experienced a decline in the share of PTER, and 21 of the 36 have a smaller portion working part-time in total. Exceptions are concentrated in retail, an industry that represents a large share of employment. In total, 20 percent of people are employed in industries that experienced an increase in PTER from 2012 to 2013. So while overall there has been a fairly widespread (but modest) recent improvement in the situation, the percent of the workforce working part-time for economic reasons remains elevated compared with 2007 for all industries. Further, many people are employed in industries that are still experiencing gains in the share that is PTER.
Why has the PTER share continued to increase for some industries? Are people who normally work full-time jobs still grasping those part-time retail jobs until something else becomes available, has there been a shift in the use of part-time workers in those industries, or is there a greater demand for full-time jobs than before the recession? We'll keep digging.
By John Robertson, a vice president and senior economist, and
Ellyn Terry, a senior economic analyst, both of the Atlanta Fed's research department
July 18, 2014 in Data Releases, Employment, Labor Markets, Unemployment | Permalink
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I think one of your axes on the lollipop charts are mislabeled.
They both read % employed that are PTNER; shouldn't one of them read % employed that are PTER?
Posted by:
Heidi |
July 18, 2014 at 05:11 PM
We noticed that, and we made that fix shortly after the chart's initial posting. We appreciate your close reading of the data!
Posted by:
macroblog |
July 21, 2014 at 03:45 PM
June 30, 2014
The Implications of Flat or Declining Real Wages for Inequality
A recent Policy Note published by the Levy Economics Institute of Bard College shows that what we thought had been a decade of essentially flat real wages (since 2002) has actually been a decade of declining real wages. Replicating the second figure in that Policy Note, Chart 1 shows that holding experience (i.e., age) and education fixed at their levels in 1994, real wages per hour are at levels not seen since 1997. In other words, growth in experience and education within the workforce during the past decade has propped up wages.
The implication for inequality of this growth in education and experience was only touched on in the Policy Note that Levy published. In this post, we investigate more fully what contribution growth in educational attainment has made to the growth in wage inequality since 1994.
The Gini coefficient is a common statistic used to measure the degree of inequality in income or wages within a population. The Gini ranges between 0 and 100, with a value of zero reflecting perfect equality and a value of 100 reflecting perfect inequality. The Gini is preferred to other, simpler indices, like the 90/10 ratio, which is simply the income in the 90th percentile divided by the income in the 10th percentile, because the Gini captures information along the entire distribution rather than merely information in the tails.
Chart 2 plots the Gini coefficient calculated for the actual real hourly wage distribution in the United States in each year between 1994 and 2013 and for the counterfactual wage distribution, holding education and/or age fixed at their 1994 levels in order to assess how much changes in age and education over the same period account for growth in wage inequality. In 2013, the Gini coefficient for the actual real wage distribution is roughly 33, meaning that if two people were drawn at random from the wage distribution, the expected difference in their wages is equal to 66 percent of the average wage in the distribution. (You can read more about interpreting the Gini coefficient.) A higher Gini implies that, first, the expected wage gap between two people has increased, holding the average wage of the distribution constant; or, second, the average wage of the distribution has decreased, holding the expected wage gap constant; or, third, some combination of these two events.
The first message from Chart 2 is that—as has been documented numerous other places (here and here, for example)—inequality has been growing in the United States, which can be seen by the rising value of the Gini coefficient over time. The Gini coefficient's 1.27-point rise means that between 1994 and 2013 the expected gap in wages between two randomly drawn workers has gotten two and a half (2 times 1.27, or 2.54) percentage points larger relative to the average wage in the distribution. Since the average real wage is higher in 2013 than in 1994, the implication is that the expected wage gap between two randomly drawn workers grew faster than the overall average wage grew. In other words, the tide rose, but not the same for all workers.
The second message from Chart 2 is that the aging of the workforce has contributed hardly anything to the growth in inequality over time: the Gini coefficient since 2009 for the wage distribution that holds age constant is essentially identical to the Gini coefficient for the actual wage distribution. However, the growth in education is another story.
In the absence of the growth in education during the same period, inequality would not have grown as much. The Gini coefficient for the actual real wage distribution in 2013 is 1.27 points higher than it was in 1994, whereas it's only 0.49 points higher for the wage distribution, holding education fixed. The implication is that growth in education has accounted for about 61 percent of the growth in inequality (as measured by the Gini coefficient) during this period.
Chart 3 shows the growth in education producing this result. The chart makes apparent the declines in the share of the workforce with less than a high school degree and the share with a high school degree, as is the increase in the shares of the workforce with college and graduate degrees.
There is little debate about whether income inequality has been rising in the United States for some time, and more dramatically recently. The degree to which education has exacerbated inequality or has the potential to reduce inequality, however, offers a more robust debate. We intend this post to add to the evidence that growing educational attainment has contributed to rising inequality. This assertion is not meant to imply that education has been the only source of the rise in inequality or that educational attainment is undesirable. The message is that growth in educational attainment is clearly associated with growing inequality, and understanding that association will be central to the understanding the overall growth in inequality in the United States.
By Julie L. Hotchkiss, a research economist and senior policy adviser at the Atlanta Fed, and
Fernando Rios-Avila, a research scholar at the Levy Economics Institute of Bard College
June 30, 2014 in Education, Employment, Inequality, Labor Markets | Permalink
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Thanks for an interesting post. I have been tracking wage inequality in Washington state over the past 20 years, but haven't had access (yet) to age and education dimensions, and these are important considerations.
I think you muddy the waters a bit by sometimes talking about inequality without qualifying it as wage inequality. I believe that increasing inequality in non-wage income and wealth are much bigger issues than wage inequality.
Posted by:
Scott Bailey |
June 30, 2014 at 10:42 PM
One characteristic that is not discussed or difficult to discuss is the co-relation of nature of job to the educational status. The distribution of workforce across educational status does not really say whether they can do what they are doing, only if they are 'educated' so and so!
Posted by:
Raghuraman R |
July 01, 2014 at 12:30 AM
Wealthy parents can afford to send children to college explains more this dynamic than the "high return on education"...especially at the median not the mean.
Posted by:
gman |
July 01, 2014 at 02:06 PM
June 20, 2014
The Wrong Question?
Just before Wednesday's confirmation from Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) does indeed still see slack in the labor market, Jon Hilsenrath and Victoria McGrane posted a Wall Street Journal article calling notice to the state of debate:
Nearly four-fifths of those who became long-term unemployed during the worst period of the downturn have since migrated to the fringes of the job market, a recent study shows, rarely seeking work, taking part-time posts or bouncing between unsteady jobs. Only one in five, according to the study, has returned to lasting full-time work since 2008.
Deliberations over the nature of the long-term unemployed are particularly lively within the Federal Reserve.... Fed officials face a conundrum: Should they keep trying to spur economic growth and hiring by holding short-term interest rates near zero, or will those low rates eventually spark inflation without helping those long out of work?
The article goes on to provide a nice summary of the ongoing back-and-forth among economists on whether the key determinant of slack in the labor market is the long-term unemployed or the short-term unemployed. Included in that summary, checking in on the side of "both," is research by Chris Smith at the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.
We are fans of Smith's work, but think that the Wall Street Journal summary buries its own lede by focusing on the long-term/short-term unemployment distinction rather than on what we think is the more important part of the story: In Hilsenrath and McGrane's words, those "taking part-time posts."
We are specifically talking about the group officially designated as part-time for economic reasons (PTER). This is the group of people in the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics' Household Survey who report they worked less than 35 hours in the reference week due to an economic reason such as slack work or business conditions.
We have previously noted that the long-term unemployed have been disproportionately landing in PTER jobs. We have also previously argued that PTER emerges as a key negative influence on earnings over the course of the recovery, and remains so (at least as of the end of 2013). For reference, here is a chart describing the decomposition from our previous post (which corrects a small error in the data definitions):
Our conclusion, clearly identified in the chart, was that short-term unemployment and PTER have been statistically responsible for the tepid growth in wages over the course of the recovery. What's more, as short-term unemployment has effectively returned to prerecession levels, PTER has increasingly become the dominant negative influence.
Our analysis was methodologically similar to Smith's—his work and the work represented in our previous post were both based on annual state-level microdata from the Current Population Survey, for example. They were not exactly comparable, however, because of different wage variables—Smith used the median wage while we use a composition-adjusted weighted average—and different regression controls.
Here is what we get when we impose the coefficient estimates from Smith's work into our attempt to replicate his wage definition:
Some results change. The unemployment variables, short-term or long-term, no longer show up as a drag in wage growth. The group of workers designated as "discouraged" do appear to be pulling down wage growth and in ways that are distinct from the larger group of marginally attached. (That is in contrast to arguments some of us have previously made in macroblog that looked at the propensity of the marginally attached to find employment.)
It is not unusual to see results flip around a bit in statistical work as this or that variable is changed, or as the structure of the empirical specifications is tweaked. It is a robustness issue that should always be acknowledged. But what does appear to emerge as a consistent negative influence on wage growth? PTER.
None of this means that the short-term/long-term unemployment debate is unimportant. The statistics are not strong enough for us to be ruling things out categorically. Furthermore, that debate has raised some really interesting questions, such as Glenn Rudebusch and John Williams's recent suggestion that the definition of economic slack relevant for the FOMC's employment mandate may be different from the definition appropriate to the FOMC's price stability mandate.
Our message is pretty simple and modest, but we think important. Whatever your definition of slack, it really ought to include PTER. If not, you are probably asking the wrong question.
By Dave Altig, executive vice president and research director, and
Pat Higgins, a senior economist, both of the Atlanta Fed's research department
June 20, 2014 in Employment, Labor Markets, Unemployment | Permalink
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June 09, 2014
Looking Beyond the Job-Finding Rate: The Difficulty of Finding Full-Time Work
Despite Friday´s report of a further solid increase in payroll employment, the utilization picture for the official labor force remains mixed. The rate of short-term and long-term unemployment as well as the share of the labor force working part time who want to work full time (a cohort also referred to as working part time for economic reasons, or PTER) rose during the recession.
The short-term unemployment rate has since returned to levels experienced before the recession. In contrast, longer-term unemployment and involuntary part-time work have declined, but both remain well above prerecession levels (see the chart).
Some of the postrecession decline in the short-term unemployment rate has not resulted from the short-term unemployed finding a job, but rather the opposite—they failed to get a job and became longer-term unemployed. Before the recession, the number of unemployed workers who said they had been looking for a job for more than half a year accounted for about 18 percent of unemployed workers. Currently, that share is close to 36 percent.
Moreover, job finding by unemployed workers might not completely reflect a decline in the amount of slack labor resources if some want full-time work but only find part-time work (that is, are working PTER). In this post, we investigate the ability of the unemployed to become fully employed relative to their experience before the Great Recession.
The job-finding rate of unemployed workers (the share of unemployed who are employed the following month) generally decreases toward zero with the length of the unemployment spell. Job-finding rates fell for all durations of unemployment in the recession.
Since the end of the recession, job-finding rates have improved, especially for shorter-term unemployed, but remain well below prerecession levels. The overall job-finding rate stood at close to 28 percent in 2007 and was about 20 percent for the first four months of 2014. The chart below shows the job-finding rates for select years by unemployment duration:
What about the jobs that the unemployed find? Most unemployed workers want to work full-time hours (at least 35 hours a week). In 2007, around 75 percent of job finders wanted full-time work and either got full-time work or worked PTER (the remainder worked part time for noneconomic reasons). For the first four months of 2014, the share wanting full-time work was also about 75 percent. But the portion of job finders wanting full-time work and only finding part-time work increased from about 22 percent in 2007 to almost 30 percent in 2014, and this job-finding underutilization share has become especially high for the longer-term unemployed.
The chart below displays the job-finding underutilization share for select years by unemployment duration. (You can also read further analysis of PTER dynamics by our colleagues at the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.)
Finding a job is one thing, but finding a satisfactory job is another. Since the end of the recession, the number of unemployed has declined, thanks in part to a gradually improving rate of job finding. But the job-finding rate is still relatively low, and the ability of an unemployed job seeker who wants to work full-time to actually find full-time work remains a significant challenge.
John Robertson, a vice president and senior economist and
Ellyn Terry, a senior economic analyst, both of the Atlanta Fed's research department
June 9, 2014 in Employment, Labor Markets, Unemployment | Permalink
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Excellent work.
Posted by:
Larry Signor |
June 21, 2014 at 08:04 PM
June 02, 2014
How Discouraged Are the Marginally Attached?
Of the many statistical barometers of the U.S. economy that we monitor here at the Atlanta Fed, there are few that we await more eagerly than the monthly report on employment conditions. The May 2014 edition arrives this week and, like many others, we will be more interested in the underlying details than in the headline job growth or unemployment numbers.
One of those underlying details—the state of the pool of "discouraged" workers (or, maybe more precisely, potential workers)—garnered special attention lately in the wake of the relatively dramatic decline in the ranks of the official labor force, a decline depicted in the April employment survey from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. That attention included some notable commentary from Federal Reserve officials.
Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley, for example, recently suggested that a sizeable part of the decline in labor force participation since 2007 can be tied to discouraged workers exiting the workforce. This suggestion follows related comments from Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen in her press conference following the March meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee:
So I have talked in the past about indicators I like to watch or I think that are relevant in assessing the labor market. In addition to the standard unemployment rate, I certainly look at broader measures of unemployment… Of course, I watch discouraged and marginally attached workers… it may be that as the economy begins to strengthen, we could see labor force participation flatten out for a time as discouraged workers start moving back into the labor market. And so that's something I'm watching closely.
What may not be fully appreciated by those not steeped in the details of the employment statistics is that discouraged workers are actually a subset of "marginally attached" workers. Among the marginally attached—individuals who have actively sought employment within the most recent 12-month period but not during the most recent month—are indeed those who report that they are out of the labor force because they are discouraged. But the marginally attached also include those who have not recently sought work because of family responsibilities, school attendance, poor health, or other reasons.
In fact, most of the marginally attached are not classified (via self-reporting) as discouraged (see the chart):
At the St. Louis Fed, B. Ravikumar and Lin Shao recently published a report containing some detailed analysis of discouraged workers and their relationship to the labor force and the unemployment rate. As Ravikumar and Shao note,
Since discouraged workers are not actively searching for a job, they are considered nonparticipants in the labor market—that is, they are neither counted as unemployed nor included in the labor force.
More importantly, the authors point out that they tend to reenter the labor force at relatively high rates:
Since December 2007, on average, roughly 40 percent of discouraged workers reenter the labor force every month.
Therefore, it seems appropriate to count some fraction of the jobless population designated as discouraged (and out of the labor force) as among the officially unemployed.
We believe this logic should be extended to the entire group of marginally attached. As we've pointed out in the past, the marginally attached group as a whole also has a roughly 40 percent transition rate into the labor force. Even though more of the marginally attached are discouraged today than before the recession, the changing distribution has not affected the overall transition rate of the marginally attached into the labor force.
In fact, in terms of the propensity to flow into employment or officially measured unemployment, there is little to distinguish the discouraged from those who are marginally attached but who have other reasons for not recently seeking a job (see the chart):
What we take from these data is that, as a first pass, when we are talking about discouraged workers' attachment to the labor market, we are talking more generally about the marginally attached. And vice versa. Any differences in the demographic characteristics between discouraged and nondiscouraged marginally attached workers do not seem to materially affect their relative labor market attachment and ability to find work.
Sometimes labels matter. But in the case of discouraged marginally attached workers versus the nondiscouraged marginally attached workers—not so much.
By Dave Altig, executive vice president and research director,
John Robertson, a vice president and senior economist, and
Ellyn Terry, a senior economic analyst, all of the Atlanta Fed's research department
June 2, 2014 in Employment, Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy, Labor Markets, Unemployment | Permalink
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I think this note usefully shows that the categories of unemployment are vague, the distinctions arbitrary, but then we knew that. But what is to be done?
Posted by:
Tom Shillock |
June 03, 2014 at 03:05 PM
May 09, 2014
How Has Disability Affected Labor Force Participation?
You might be unaware that May is Disability Insurance Awareness Month. We weren't aware of it until recently, but the issue of disability—as a reason for nonparticipation in the labor market—has been very much on our minds as of late. As we noted in a previous macroblog post, from the fourth quarter of 2007 through the end of 2013, the number of people claiming to be out of the labor force for reasons of illness or disability increased almost 3 million (or 23 percent). The previous post also noted that the incidence of reported nonparticipation as a result of disability/illness is concentrated (unsurprisingly) in the age group from about 51 to 60.
In the past, we have examined the effects of the aging U.S. population on the labor force participation rate (LFPR). However, we have not yet specifically considered how much the aging of the population alone is responsible for the aforementioned increase in disability as a reason for dropping out of the labor force.
The following chart depicts over time the percent (by age group) reporting disability or illness as a reason for not participating in the labor force. Each line represents a different year, with the darkest line being 2013. The chart reveals a long-term trend of rising disability or illness as a reason for labor force nonparticipation for almost every age group.
The chart also shows that disability or illness is cited most often among people 51 to 65 years old—the current age of a large segment of the baby boomer cohort. In fact, the proportion of people in this age group increased from 20 percent in 2003 to 25 percent in 2013.
How much can the change in demographics during the past decade explain the rise in disability or illness as a reason for not participating in the labor market? The answer seems to be: Not a lot.
Following an approach you may have seen in this post, we break down into three components the change in the portion of people not participating in the labor force due to disability or illness. One component measures the change resulting from shifts within age groups (the within effect). Another component measures changes due to population shifts across age groups (the between effect). A third component allows for correlation across the two effects (a covariance term). Here's what you get:
To recap, only about one fifth of the decline in labor force participation as a result of reported illness or disability can be attributed to the population aging per se. A full three quarters appears to be associated with some sort of behavioral change.
What is the source of this behavioral change? Our experiment can't say. But given that those who drop out of the labor force for reasons of disability/illness tend not to return, it would be worth finding out. Here is one perspective on the issue.
You can find even more on this topic via the Human Capital Compendium.
By Dave Altig, research director and executive vice president at the Atlanta Fed, and
Ellyn Terry, a senior economic analyst in the Atlanta Fed's research department
May 9, 2014 in Employment, Labor Markets, Unemployment | Permalink
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I wish you had used different colors, its really hard to differentiate the years.
One wonders if there has been a commensurate increase in claims for disability.
As a percentage of the total people not in the labor force, disability as a reason has gone up from~10% in 1998 to ~13% in 2014. That seems like an awfully big jump. Other than an intervening recession, I am struggling to think of what might cause this as I cannot think of any policy changes to entitlement programs that would cause this.
Posted by:
dwb |
May 10, 2014 at 01:11 PM
I have a real problem with your label "people who don't want a job because they are disabled or ill." My husband is collecting disability insurance after a mental breakdown several years ago and subsequent bipolar disorder diagnosis. Its NOT that he "doesn't WANT to work" because of his illness that has no cure, its because he CAN'T work due to that illness. He has been mourning the loss of his dream career for 9 years now and would do anything he could to be able to work in his chosed field again. Its NOT his fault that his medication and therapy only goes so far in helping him to live a half-way normal life. There is NO CURE for this disease and he has a very hard-to-manage case according to his doctors who are doing everything they can for him, but don't demean him by saying he doesn't WANT to work, because he wants that more than anything and he always will.
Posted by:
Susan Buchanan |
May 12, 2014 at 11:20 AM
Some conjectures: 1) A rise in the entitlement mentality. 2) A rise in fraud. 3) More lax governmental oversight. 4) Changes in incentives for claiming disability. 5) Greater expectations of near-perfect health as a norm.
Posted by:
Marvin McConoughey |
May 14, 2014 at 07:29 PM
April 17, 2014
Using State-Level Data to Estimate How Labor Market Slack Affects Wages
At a recent speech in Miami, Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart had this to say:
Wage growth by most measures has been very low. I take this as a signal of labor market weakness, and in turn a signal of a lack of significant upward unit cost pressure on inflation.
This macroblog post examines whether the data support this assertion (answer: yes) and whether wage inflation is more sensitive to some measures of labor underutilization than other measures (answer: apparently, yes). San Francisco Fed President John Williams touched on the latter topic in a recent speech (emphasis mine):
We generally look at the overall unemployment rate as a good yardstick of labor market slack and inflation pressures. However, its usefulness may be compromised today by the extraordinary number of long-term unemployed—defined as those out of the workforce for six months or longer... Standard models of inflation typically do not distinguish between the short- and long-term unemployed, because they're assumed to affect wage and price inflation in the same way. However, recent research suggests that the level of long-term unemployment may not influence inflation pressures to the same degree as short-term unemployment.
And Fed Chair Janet Yellen said this at her March 19 press conference:
With respect to the issue of short-term unemployment and its being more relevant for inflation and a better measure of the labor market, I've seen research along those lines. I think it would be tremendously premature to adopt any notion that says that that is an accurate read on either how inflation is determined or what constitutes slack in the labor market.
The research to which President Williams refers are papers by economists Robert Gordon and Mark Watson, respectively. (For further evidence, see this draft by Princeton economists Alan Krueger, Judd Cramer and David Cho.)
The analysis here builds on this research by broadening the measures of labor underutilization beyond the short-term and long-term unemployment rates that add up to the standard unemployment rate called U-3. The U-5 underutilization measure includes both conventional unemployment and "marginally attached workers" who are not in the labor force but who want a job and have actively looked in the past year. The difference between U-5 and U-3 is a very close proxy for the number of marginally attached relative to the size of the labor force.
U-6 encompasses U-5 as well as those who work less than 35 hours for an economic reason. The difference between U-6 and U-5 is a very close proxy for the share of "part-time for economic reason" workers in the labor force. These nonoverlapping measures of labor underutilization rates are all shown in the chart below.
The series are highly correlated, making it difficult to isolate the impact of any particular labor underutilization rate on wage inflation (e.g., "How much will wage inflation change if the short-term unemployment rate rises 1.0 percentage point, holding all of the underutilization measures in the above figure constant?").
We follow the approach of Staiger, Stock, and Watson (2001) by using state-level data to relate wage inflation to unemployment in a so-called "wage-Phillips curve." Because the 2007–09 recession hit some states harder than others, we can use the cross-sectional variation in outcomes across states to arrive at more precise estimates of the separate impacts of the labor underutilization measures on wage inflation (see the chart).
Five-year state-level wage inflation rates for 2008–13, using monthly Current Population Survey(CPS) microdata, are shown on the vertical axis. The CPS microdata are also used to construct all of the labor underutilization measures. Each circle represents an individual state (red for long-term unemployment and blue for short-term unemployment), and each circle's area is proportional to the state's population share. Two noteworthy states are pointed out for illustration. North Dakota has had lower unemployment and (much) higher wage inflation than the other states (presumably because of its energy boom). And California has had higher unemployment and (somewhat) lower wage inflation than average. Even after excluding North Dakota, we see a clear negative relationship between wage inflation and underutilization measured with either short-term or long-term unemployment.
Because short-term and long-term unemployment are highly correlated (also apparent in the above plot), one can't tell visually if one underutilization measure is more important for wage inflation than the other. To make this assessment, we need to estimate a regression. The regression—which also includes both U-5 minus U-3 and U-6 minus U-5—adjusts wages for changes in the composition of the workforce. This composition adjustment, also made by Staiger, Stock and Watson (2001), controls for the fact that lower-skilled workers tend to be laid off at a disproportionately higher rate during recessions, thereby putting upward pressure on wages. The regression also weights observations by population shares.
The regression estimates imply that short-term unemployment is the most important determinant of wage inflation while U-6 minus U-5—the proxy for "part-time for economic reason" workers—also has a statistically significant impact. The other two labor underutilization measures do not affect wage inflation statistically different from zero. Rather than provide regression coefficients, we decompose observed U.S. wage inflation for 1995–2013 into contributions from the labor underutilization measures, workforce composition changes, and everything else (see the chart).
Both short-term unemployment and workers who are part-time for economic reasons have pushed down wage inflation. But the "part-time for economic reason" impact has become relatively more important recently because of the stubbornly slow decline in undesired part-time employment.
By Pat Higgins, a senior economist in the Atlanta Fed's research department
Editor's note: Upon request, the programming code used in this macroblog post is available from the author.
April 17, 2014 in Employment, Labor Markets, Unemployment | Permalink
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April 10, 2014
Reasons for the Decline in Prime-Age Labor Force Participation
As a follow up to this post on recent trends in labor force participation, we look specifically at the prime-age group of 25- to 54-year-olds. The participation decisions of this age cohort are less affected by the aging population and the longer-term trend toward lower participation of youths because of rising school enrollment rates. In that sense, they give us a cleaner window on responses of participation to changing business cycle conditions.
The labor force participation rate of the prime-age group fell from 83 percent just before the Great Recession to 81 percent in 2013. The participation rate of prime-age males has been trending down since the 1960s. The participation rate of women, which had been rising for most of the post-World War II period, appears to have plateaued in the 1990s and has more recently shared the declining pattern of participation for prime-age men. But the decline in participation for both groups appears to have accelerated between 2007 and 2013 (see chart 1).
We look at the various reasons people cite for not participating in the labor force from the monthly Current Population Survey. These reasons give us some insight into the impact of changes in employment conditions since 2007 on labor force participation. The data on those not in the official labor force can be broken into two broad categories: those who say they don't currently want a job and those who say they do want a job but don't satisfy the active search criteria for being in the official labor force. Of the prime-age population not in the labor force, most say they don't currently want a job. At the end of 2007, about 15 percent of 25- to 54-year-olds said they didn't want a job, and slightly fewer than 2 percent said they did want a job. By the end of 2013, the don't-want-a-job share had reached nearly 17 percent, and the want-a-job share had risen to slightly above 2 percent (see chart 2).
Prime-Age Nonparticipation: Currently Want a Job
Most of the rise in the share of the prime-age population in the want-a-job category is due to so-called marginally attached individuals—they are available and want a job, have looked for a job in the past year, but haven't looked in the past four weeks—especially those who say they are not currently looking because they have become discouraged about job-finding prospects (see the blue and orange lines of chart 3). In 2013, there were about 1.1 million prime-age marginally attached individuals compared to 0.7 million in 2007, and the prime-age marginally attached accounted for about half of all marginally attached in the population.
The marginally attached are aptly named in the sense that they have a reasonably high propensity to reenter the labor force—more than 40 percent are in the labor force in the next month and more than 50 percent are in the labor force 12 months later (see chart 4). This macroblog post discusses what the relative stability in the flow rate from marginally attached to the labor force means for thinking about the amount of slack labor resources in the economy.
Prime-Age Nonparticipation: Currently Don't Want a Job
As chart 2 makes evident, the vast majority of the rise in prime-age nonparticipation since 2009 is due to the increase in those saying they do not currently want a job. The largest contributors to the increase are individuals who say they are too ill or disabled to work or who are in school or training (see the orange and blues lines in chart 5).
Those who say they don't want a job because they are disabled have a relatively low propensity to subsequently (re)enter the labor force. So if the trend of rising disability persists, it will put further downward pressure on prime-age participation. Those who say they don't currently want a job because they are in school or training have a much greater likelihood of (re)entering the labor force, although this tendency has declined slightly since 2007 (see chart 6).
Note that the number of people in the Current Population Survey citing disability as the reason for not currently wanting a job is not the same as either the number of people applying for or receiving social security disability insurance. However, a similar trend has been evident in overall disability insurance applications and enrollments (see here).
Some of the rise in the share of prime-age individuals who say they don't want a job could be linked to erosion of skills resulting from prolonged unemployment or permanent changes in the composition of demand (a different mix of skills and job descriptions). It is likely that the rise in share of prime-age individuals not currently wanting a job because they are in school or in training is partly a response to the perception of inadequate skills. The increase in recent years is evident across all ages until about age 50 but is especially strong among the youngest prime-age individuals (see chart 7).
But lack of required skills is not the only plausible explanation for the rise in the share of prime-age individuals who say they don't currently want a job. For instance, the increased incidence of disability is partly due to changes in the age distribution within the prime-age category. The share of the prime-age population between 50 and 54 years old—the tail of the baby boomer cohort—has increased significantly (see chart 8).
This increase is important because the incidence of reported disability within the prime-age population increases with age and has become more common in recent years, especially for those older than 45 (see chart 9).
The health of the labor market clearly affects the decision of prime-age individuals to enroll in school or training, apply for disability insurance, or stay home and take care of family. Discouragement over job prospects rose during the Great Recession, causing many unemployed people to drop out of the labor force. The rise in the number of prime-age marginally attached workers reflects this trend and can account for some of the decline in participation between 2007 and 2009.
But most of the postrecession rise in prime-age nonparticipation is from the people who say they don't currently want a job. How much does that increase reflect trends established well before the recession, and how much can be attributed to the recession and slow recovery? It's hard to say with much certainty. For example, participation by prime-age men has been on a secular decline for decades, but the pace accelerated after 2007—see here for more discussion.
Undoubtedly, some people will reenter the labor market as it strengthens further, especially those who left to undertake additional training. But for others, the prospect of not finding a satisfactory job will cause them to continue to stay out of the labor market. The increased incidence of disability reported among prime-age individuals suggests permanent detachment from the labor market and will put continued downward pressure on participation if the trend continues. The Bureau of Labor Statistics projects that the prime-age participation rate will stabilize around its 2013 level. Given all the contradictory factors in play, we think this projection should have a pretty wide confidence interval around it.
Note: All data shown are 12-month moving averages to emphasize persistent shifts in trends.
By Melinda Pitts, director, Center for Human Capital Studies,
John Robertson, a vice president and senior economist in the Atlanta Fed's research department, and
Ellyn Terry, a senior economic analyst in the Atlanta Fed's research department
April 10, 2014 in Business Cycles, Employment, Labor Markets | Permalink
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have you considered that a number of people will say they dont want a job because they have experienced repeated frustration in finding one? it's better for one's psyche to lie to yourself and to others about such than to accept the fact that one has repeatedly been rejected...
Posted by:
rjs |
April 10, 2014 at 04:39 PM
Astonishing decline in male labor force participation since 1970s.
I would be interested to see more detailed age bracket than category of the 25 - 54 age brackets.
This is so we can see if the decline over time is consistent for all ages or the particular works from certain age that flows through remainder of their working life.
Posted by:
Jason |
April 12, 2014 at 10:21 PM
Clearly there is nobody who is unemployed who does not want a job. This article is simply a deceptive representation of the facts. The problem is largely that employers will not hire qualified people unless they have done the exact same job before. They will not for example hire an Architect to work as a project manager at a company that manufactures windows, because the HR people use IT to scan the resumes in place of interviews and will only choose from the set of people who have been employed by manufacturers of windows in the past.
Do the survey and the research over again and ask the right questions. The problem more than likely is that the most qualified people are being overlooked, are frustrated because they can,t crossover to a different industry or are victims of age discrimination. You can be certain that most people want to have a job. Sop, dig deeper.
Posted by:
Terry L. Walker, ARCHITECT |
April 14, 2014 at 11:01 AM
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The U.S. government has released fuel economy data for the Ram 1500 4×4 with the eight-speed automatic and Hemi V8 engine, presenting a more complete picture of the 2013 Ram's fuel economy.
|6 speed RWD
|8 speed RWD
|6 speed 4×4
|8 speed 4×4
A high-efficiency V6 Ram (not shown in the chart) easily trumps Ford's turbocharged V6 models, achieving 18 mpg city, 25 highway. The base V6, though, is nearly as efficient, with 17 mpg city, 25 highway. (Real life usage is likely to show more of a difference.)
The Hemi achieves roughly the same mileage as the 4.7 V8, but provides much more power; one may credit the cylinder shutoff feature for some of that. Rumor has the 4.7 finally ceasing production this year.
The eight-speed is good for two miles per gallon in the one configuration where one may directly compare it with the six-speed, putting it much closer to the V6. One can project that rear-wheel-drive setups (which are lighter and lower) with the eight speed and Hemi should be capable of around 16 city, 22 highway.
The two transmissions are both based on similar planetary gear setups, albeit with another planetary gear in the eight-speed, but the new Torqueflite 8 has a much faster torque converter lock, extremely fast shifts, and many other features to reduce friction and power loss. It also has a much wider range than the older six-speed, which helps highway mileage and allows for more economical axle ratios.
While no official figures have been released yet, test drivers have said that the eight speed feels "much, much faster" than the six speed. Switching from a five speed Mercedes automatic to the new eight speed in Chrysler's large cars, with the V6 engine, dropped 0-60 times from around 8.7 to around 6.6 seconds, a dramatic improvement; the difference in Ram acceleration is likely to be less noticeable. (Thanks to Allpar member mentalicca.)
Motor Trend: Ram bests aluminum F-150
The Ram 1500 faced down the aluminum-bodied Ford F-150 and new Chevrolet Silverado in Motor Trend's half-ton truck shootout. The three contenders were put through a broad array of testing, including a 260-mile drive through California and Arizona. Measurements included: Testing without load: 0-60 mph and 1/4-mile acceleration, 60-0 mph braking, and maximum lateral grip (Ram was Limits-handling without load: closed-course cornering, braking, [...]
Charger squads stop quickly
The 2015 Dodge Charger squad has been tested in police trim for the first time, but since it kept the five-speed automatic, it has turned in numbers similar to past years. While the eight-speed V6 Charger does 0-60 in 6.6 seconds, the five-speed was timed at 8.05 seconds by the Michigan State Police. The civilian 2015 Charger gained acceleration from the eight-speed, [...]
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Months after unconfirmed reports made it to Allpar's pages, the power of Automotive News, in the person of reporter Larry Vellequette, pried a key fact from Chrysler executives — that they cast and build "Ferrari" engines for Maserati. As our sister site pentastars.com reported, the engines are actually cast in Kokomo, and machined in the Trenton Engine plant, using a mixture of [...]

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From Jaime King to Taylor Swift, we're going spruce-to-spruce to decide which celeb holiday display is worth cheering about
Credit: Courtesy Jaime King
Updated: Tuesday Nov 25, 2014 | 02:00 PM EST
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Level of holiday cheery-ness: Singing along to Mariah Carey's "All I Want for Christmas Is You" on repeat
Santa baby, slip a sable under the tree – or in King's case, a vintage Chanel purse. A festive fir adorned in classic white lights, a coveted timeless bag … this is what Bing Crosby's been singing about. We don't even blame the model mama for ripping into her gift before Dec. 25.
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Loyola Debate Team caps off Another Successful Season
Loyola's debate team capped its regular season at the Western States Forensic Tournament in Reno, Nevada, with their third consecutive first-round bid to the National Parliamentary Tournament of Excellence.
The national tournament will be held at the University of Nevada-Reno March 17-20. The top 24 teams in the nation receive this honor. This year freshman Joe Carroll and junior Phil Kraft qualified for the event. "This is what we were working for from day one," said Kraft.
This is not the only honor the duo has received this year. Recently the pair was invited to participate in The Élysée Treaty Debates this coming April 13 and 14in Washington D.C.
The Embassy of France and The Embassy of the Federal Republic of Germany, in partnership with American University and George Washington University, are sponsoring the event. All debaters advancing to quarterfinals will win an all-expenses-paid study tour of Germany, France and Belgium organized by the embassies of France and Germany.
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Students receive prestigious Schweitzer FellowshipsFour Loyola graduate students were recently selected for the prestigious Albert Schweitzer Fellowship program and will spend the next year working on healthcare-related projects to help underserved communities in Chicago.
Phi Beta Kappa chapter puts University in elite companyLoyola is one of just 283 universities to have a Phi Beta Kappa chapter, a claim that only about 10 percent of the nation's colleges can make.
Loyola is No. 4 on list of greenest collegesLoyola is ranked No. 4 on the Sierra Club's 2014 list of the greenest colleges in America. The annual rankings are designed to spotlight universities that are deeply committed to environmental responsibility.
In the news
IC named one of the 'coolest' libraries in U.S.Loyola's Information Commons joins an elite group of peers on Business Insider's list of the "coolest" college libraries in the country.
Institute focuses on sustainable livingThe Institute of Environmental Sustainability combines academics and research with agriculture and community living—all in one facility.
Damen Center
Damen Center takes campus life to next levelThe Damen Center was designed from top to bottom with students in mind, making it the center of social life on Loyola's Lake Shore Campus.


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Environment in Africa
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Fighting Wildlife Crime to End Extreme Poverty and Boost Shared Prosperity
Now a US$ 213 billion industry, environment and natural resource crimes such as poaching, illegal logging and wildlife trafficking are growing every year and putting natural resources at risk. This is... Show More +
A Resilient Future for Bangladesh Sundarbans
Bangladesh Receives Additional $140 Million to Help Communities Better Prepare for Future Natural Disasters
DHAKA, June 09, 2014 — The government of Bangladesh today signed a $140 million credit to improve and strengthen critical disaster prevention infrastructure in the coastal areas of the country.The loan... Show More +
Integrated Safeguards Data Sheet (Concept Stage) - Greening the Energy Mix in DVC - P147818
Project Information Document (Concept Stage) - Greening the Energy Mix in DVC - P147818
The World Bank Group's Global Environment Facility Program
The World Bank Group-Global Environment Facility (GEF) Program is one of the institution's largest and longest standing trust-funded programs. Since 1991, when the World Bank helped to establish the GEF,... Show More +
India - Sustainable Livelihoods and Adaptation to Climate Change Project : environment assessment and environment management framework : draft : India - Sustainable Livelihoods and Adaptation to Climate Change Project : environment assessment and environment management framework
The development objective of the Sustainable Livelihoods and Adaptation to Climate Change (SLACC) Project for India is to improve adaptive capacity of the rural poor,... Show More +
India - Second Development Policy Loan to Promote Inclusive Green Growth and Sustainable Development in Himachal Pradesh Program
This operation is the second in the series of two Development Policy Loans (DPLs) that supports the Government of Himachal Pradesh (GoHP) to make a permanent paradigm... Show More +
Biodiversity: Sector Results Profile
Bank Group ContributionThe overall WB biodiversity portfolio of 245 projects in the ten years from FY2004 to 2013 included direct biodiversity commitments worth over US$ 1 billion. Of this, 27 percent... Show More +
Environment: Sector Results Profile
Bank Group ContributionOver the past decade, the Bank (IBRD/IDA) committed funding for US$33 billion, from which IDA's contribution was US$7.7 billion (23 percent) to support investment in environment... Show More +
Maldives Ari Atoll Solid Waste Management
Bank Group Contribution The project was fully financed by an European Union and the Australian Agency for International Development (AusAID) Maldives Climate Change Trust... Show More +
Nepal: Irrigation and Water Resource Management
The project has so far resulted in improved physical performance of the select surface water schemes; institutionally and financially strengthened WUAs providing better irrigation services; and has enhanced... Show More +
Nepal: Agriculture Commercialization and Trade
ResultsDespite political instability leading to public strikes, transport closures and frequent changes in the leadership at the implementing agency, the project has been able to overcome the odds and... Show More +
Sustainable Energy for All: Sector Results Profile
In 2002, only 7,000 Bangladeshi households were using solar panels. Today, more than 1.4 million low-income rural households in Bangladesh have electricity—delivered by solar photovoltaic (PV) panels.... Show More +
Project Signing: $210 Million World Bank Support to Bangladesh for Building Modern Food Storage and Strengthening Distribution System
Steel silos to store grain to feed people affected by extreme-weather disasterDHAKA, April 7, 2014 – The government of Bangladesh today signed a $210 million financing agreement with the International... Show More +
Oceans: Sector Results Profile
Bank Group ContributionThe World Bank and Bank-managed trust funds are increasingly supporting initiatives to rebuild the ocean's natural capital. Many of the Bank's investments in the oceans over the... Show More +
The Bangladesh Responsible Sourcing Initiative : A new model for green growth
The objective of this report is to document a new approach to tackle systemic industrial pollution in the textile industry. The Global responsible Sourcing Initiative... Show More +
India: Green Growth - Overcoming Environment Challenges to Promote Development
Key FindingsGreen growth is necessary. With cost of environmental degradation at US $80 billion annually, or equivalent to 5.7% of GDP in 2009, environment could become a major constraint in sustaining... Show More +
India - Second Development Policy Loan to Promote Inclusive Green Growth and Sustainable Development in Himachal Pradesh Project
India - Second Phase (A) of the Mumbai Urban Transport Project : environmental assessment (Vol. 3 of 3) : Environment and social management plan for controlling trespassing over railway tracks of suburban railways at station areas in Mumbai
The Second Phase (A) of the Mumbai Urban Transport Project (MUTP-2A) for India will build upon the progress made under MUTP and will cover the suburban rail system within... Show More +


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|NSFW Content
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What do you think? Give us your opinion. Anonymous comments allowed.
#13 - thunderxcatsxhoooo (01/15/2014) [-]Today I was talking to my friend were both gingers and I said "what if we made a movie about gingers going from town to town, city to city, and they encircle the border and create a humming noise and suck every soul from the city, and move across the country doing that." it was a joke and we both laughed but honestly, Id watch it, anyone else? If it had a good enough plot that is
#19 to #18 - thunderxcatsxhoooo (01/16/2014) [-]


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MPAC and Morris Arts Kick Off 'Music Beyond Borders' Lunchtime Concert Series Tonight
Mayo Performing Arts Center and Morris Arts team up to present the 5th annual Music Beyond Borders free lunchtime summer world music concert series on the Morristown Green. Four concerts will take place between tonight, June 24 and August. Concerts begin at 12:30 and last approximately one hour.
Each Music Beyond Borders concert will feature a performance of world music reflecting the diverse culture and population of the area. Brown bag a meal, stop by while walking your dog and experience a world music celebration while getting to know your neighbors. (In case of rain, concerts will be held indoors at the United Methodist Church.)
Eco Del Sur:
June 24, 2014:
South American artists from such countries as Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru explore and perform ancient Andean music as well as contemporary music from different Latin American regions.
African Global Arts and Iwa L'ewa Heritage Dance Ensemble:
July 8:
Celebrate the African cultural legacy throughout the world, not just from countries like Guinea, Mali, or Senegal, but also from the United States, Trinidad, Haiti, Brazil, Cuba, Columbia and more.
The Klez Dispensers:
July 22, 2014:
Described as "juicy, fresh and daring," the Klez Dispensers have been dishing up their signature state-of-the-art, swinging American-style klezmer since the 1990s
Peter Smith School of Irish Dance:
August 5, 2014:
The Peter Smith School of Irish Dance has trained thousands of dancers in its 50-year history claiming several World, All-Ireland, and North American Championship titles. Enjoy an afternoon of Irish music and dance.
Mayo Performing Arts Center is located at 100 South St., Morristown, NJ 07960. Contact the box office at (973) 539-8008 or visit online at www.mayoarts.org.
All programs subject to change.
|Related Links
|NJ Ballet's NUTCRACKER to Bring Holiday Magic to Morristown, 12/12-24
November 12, 2014
|Carolyn Dorfman Dance Company to Perform at the Morris Museum, 10/26
October 07, 2014
|NJTAP Ensemble to Celebrate 20 Years with 'XX' on Sept 21
September 12, 2014
|NJ Ballet Presents BALLET ON BROADWAY & CINDERELLA at MPAC This Weekend
May 17, 2014
|MOMIX Comes to the Mayo Center with BOTANICA Tonight
May 01, 2014
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Hittite cuneiform script and Hittite language
Writing systems
Alternative scripts
Writing systems
Phrases and idioms
Multilingual pages
Constructed scripts
Other sections
My other sites
Hittite was spoken north-central Anatolia (part of modern Turkey) and is generally classified as belonging to the Anatolian branch of Indo-European languages. Written records of Hittite date from between the 16th and 13th centuries BC, and it is the earliest Indo-European to appear in writing.
Hittite was written with a cuneiform script adapted from a version of Akkadian cuneiform from northern Syria and was deciphered during the early 20th century mainly by Bedřich Hrozný, with contributions by Jørgen Alexander Knudtzon, and Hugo Winckler, who discovered many tablets written in Hittite at the village of Boğazköy in Turkey.
Notable features
Hittite syllabic glyphs
Sample text
Source: http://historicconnections.webs.com/biblicalarchaeology.htm
Information about the Hittite language and writing system:
Hittte grammar
Hittite dictionary
Anatolian languages
Carian, Hittite, Lycian, Lydian
Cuneiform scripts
Akkadian, Elamite, Hittite, Old Persian Cuneiform, Sumerian, Ugaritic
More To Explore


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I'm not going to lie. I expected a lot of things when I pressed play on Range's new romantically titled, grammatically questionable single, B.Y.A. (Beautiful You Are), but a sample of Cypress Hill's classic ruckus-causing anthem Insane in the Membrane wasn't one of them. Wow. Give me a minute to let it sink in….ok, there, I'm good. Where were we? Ah yes, Range. The Roc Nation representer, previously seen doing a Ghetto Dance, first and foremost deserves credit for the beat, which flips the aforementioned sample into a horn infused party anthem that has easy appeal. Stepping out from behind the boards, Range steps from behind the boards to deliver an impressively smooth vocal performance. As always, sweet singing demands a contribution from the rap department and suddenly party-hungry emcee Wale kicks in with a flirting and strong 16. With an opening salvo like this there's no telling what future music from Range will sound like – a Boogie Down Productions sample? – but with no release date or title for his EP in sight we'll just have to wait and see what develops.
Written by Nathan S. on 05/2/11
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First DJ Booth Appearance:
"Ghetto Dance" (2010)
Total DJ Booth Features:
2 Songs
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What are you thankful for today? Tell us here, on Facebook, by texting us at 21947 or calling (800) 525-5683.
Amy shares what she is thankful for.
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Printable Area
By Kittencalskitchen on March 29, 2006
Photo by Rita~
Photo by Rita~
"I have a family of onion-lovers so I always double the recipe, this gravy has tons of flavor, if you love onions then then you will love this! If you want a dark richer gravy then omit the water and use 1 cup consomme. This is delicious served with a pork roast and mashed taters or over fries, do not add in any extra salt until end of cooking :)"
Serving Size: 1 (237 g)
Servings Per Recipe: 3
"This is so full of flavor!! It is really very good and easy to make Kittencal. I used 2 tablespoons of Worcestershire sauce. I think I will use just 1 tablespoon the next time. Other then that I would not change a thing. Made for 1-2-3 Hit Wonders 2007 game"
"Great recipe! The gravy turned out wonderful. I personally thought it was a little sweet, so I will probably omit the sugar next time, but my husband loved it! Great recipe!"
"Excellent gravy. I used it over hamburg steaks and mashed garlic potatoes. Used just one clove garlic and the worcestershire sauce really added a nice flavor. Thanks for posting this wonderful recipe, Kit."
"I just never heard of garlic being an option. LOL! I most definitely used it. This was delish and the consistency was perfect. I did use home made turkey stock. Serve the gravy over sliced turkey breast!"


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So you want a larger iPhone?
All I'm saying is be careful what you wish for.
[Image Credit: Windell Oskay]
Source: http://www.tuaw.com/
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In quietude you streamline thoughts
India is at its loudest during election time. No one seems to want to keep quiet, and everyone wants to have the last word. So there is a verbal barrage, with discretion and decency often thrown to the winds. Scandals and secrets galore do the rounds, making you wonder where they were hiding for so long.
Unfazed, our netas tackle their grey shades with wit, sarcasm and a volley of expletives. The electronic media play it all to the hilt, leaving no choice for the masses but to listen to the constant cacophony.
As a common person it surprises me how all these leaders can actually get away with all the slander. Understandably, all are caught in the vortex of words and more words. Do we have a choice?
What if we consciously remain simply silent for a few hours every day? The noise within us would recede; our ears would keenly take in the rhythm of the noises naturally offered to us. The rustle of the curtains, the wail of a baby, delightful shrieks of children at play, the whistle of the pressure cooker, a gate opening far away, a car reversing, a mother calling out to her child, a door bell ringing, a door creaking, and so much more.
Silence is golden and speech is silver — this is what we learnt at school. Man is desperate to be forever in the company of people who talk, seeking in the din a sense of unexplained peace. Edgar Allan Poe, in his poem Silence, expressed the two faces of silence. These are "body and soul" and "sea and shore".
"When to the sessions of sweet silent thought I summon up remembrance of things past." was how Shakespeare reflected in his Sonnet 30.
To remain silent requires will power and it will be a sort of mental exercise. Like walking, this can be practised daily. The best part of it is that you don't need to even step out of your house.
As you strengthen your mind you'll be surprised at how things around you change for the better. The clutter of thoughts waiting to be articulated, stops right in your brain.
In silence you streamline your thoughts, filtering out the unwanted and only expressing what is necessary.
The result then would be obviously sensible, welcome, and soothing. Pause and think for a moment about the profound voice of the infinite urging us to seek solace in silence divine.
Keywords: Election time, election campaigns, electronic media, silence,


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Set in a beautiful mountain location in Xingping, Yangshuo County, is This Old Place International Youth Hostel. We... More Info »
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First Lengendary Roof Top Bar in Yangshuo Center - the highest buliding in town. Rooms are bright and clean.... More Info »
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Yangshuo will make your China trip different. We are No kidding. Since we are hostel No Kidd Inn We offer Cheap&Big... More Info »
The Climbers' Inn is a family-run hostel for backpackers and other tourists. It provides safe, friendly, and... More Info »
We have the best dorm,roof top bar and view in town! Free laundry! Showbiz inn is the best place for... More Info »
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The amazing Wada Hostel has finally opened its doors in Yangshuo! We're all the fun, love and charm from our famous... More Info »
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There are 3 types available in the hostel, dormitory, twin and K-size room, 24 hours hot water, free towels and hair... More Info »
89 Inn was just open next to the famous West Street. Everything is new and clean. The rooms and beds are made of... More Info »
Xi Town River View Hotel is a 3-star property in scenic Yangshuo, just next to the Lijiang River. All rooms have... More Info »
Greeting from Bad Panda, Yangshuo. We are a new and small establishment, with just a couple of dorm rooms. With a... More Info »
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A time for indulging and spending time with family, it's no wonder that some of the world's best foods make an appearance during Christmas. Here are some of the world's most mouth-watering holiday dishes!Read more »
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