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Tagged: AUSTERITY
Bad Economic News, Part 1
Yankees baseball legend Yogi Berra coined the proverbial phrase "It ain't over 'til it's over". That is certainly true about the European economic crisis. This past week saw a crop of bad news from the Old World. Nothing very dramatic – and certainly nothing that should surprise regular readers of this blog – but nevertheless bad news. In this first of two parts, let's look at a report from the EU Observer:
The eurozone appears to have come back onto the markets' radar amid low inflation, poor economic news from Germany, and Greece's bailout exit plans. Greece's long-term borrowing costs went above 8 percent on Thursday (16 October) – their highest for almost a year – as investors took fright at the fragile political situation in the country. The government in Athens has tried to shore up popular support by suggesting it will exit its bailout programme with the International Monetary fund more than a year early.
There is an important background here. The bailout program had three components:
1. The Greek government will do everything in its power to combine a balanced budget with protecting as much as possible of its welfare state against the economic depression;
2. In return for the Greek government's tax increases and spending cuts, the International Monetary Fund, the European Union and the European Central Bank provided loans that kept the Greek government afloat cash-wise;
3. The only metric used to measure the success of bailout policies is the stability of a balanced government budget.
If GDP did not grow, if unemployment was at 30 percent, if more than half the young in Greece had no job to go to… none of that mattered. As a result, there has been no structural improvement of the Greek economy; government has not reduced its burden on the private sector – quite the contrary, in fact. Welfare systems have been reduced, but higher taxes have prevented welfare recipients from transitioning into self sufficiency.
As a result, the social situation in Greece is almost unbearable. The political reaction has come in the form of a surge for parties on the extreme flanks of the political spectrum. In my book Industrial Poverty I explain in detail what happened in Greece, what brought the country down from the heights of European prosperity to permanent stagnation. Today, sadly, the country is little more than a macroeconomic wasteland.
It is with this in mind that one should approach the news that Greece is considering leaving the bailout program. The coalition government is under enormous pressure to save the nation itself, to keep parliamentary democracy in place and to inject some sort of life into the economy. If they fail either of two extreme political movements will take over – the Chavista communists in Syriza or the Nazis in Golden Dawn.
International investors know this and are understandably scared. In their mind the bailout is the least of available evils; in reality, as I explain in my book, the attempts at balancing the budget and saving the welfare state in the midst of the crisis are the very policies that keep Greece from recovering; weak signs of a minor recovery earlier this year have yet to materialize into anything other than the "beaten dog" syndrome often following protracted periods of austertiy.
This is the very reason why Greece is now considering leaving the bailout program. They cannot continue forever to try to muddle through with an economy deadlocked in depression and a democracy so fragile that it has brought the first Nazis into a parliament in Europe for the first time since World War II.
However, as the EU Observer explains, the Greek government is caught between a rock and a hard place – as are other hard-hit euro zone economies:
But the recent announcement spooked investors, unconvinced that Greece can stand alone. Long-term borrowing costs also jumped in the weak periphery states, Spain, Italy, and Portugal. The market jitters – while not comparable to the height of the eurozone crisis in 2011 and 2012 – come as the eurozone's main economies are once again at odds over policy responses.
France also belongs on that list, primarily for its typically European attempt at leaving the bailout program. Its government tried to leave the bailout path for a left turn into the quagmire of government expansionism. Thinking that more government spending, on top of the largest government spending in the world, could in fact bring about a recovery, the French socialists who won the 2012 elections scoffed at the EU balanced-budget rules and went full speed ahead with their government-expansionist agenda.
Two years later that agenda has hit a brick wall. Massive tax increases, supposed to pay for some of the new government spending, have only resulted in an exodus of brain power and entrepreneurship. The French GDP is standing more still than the Eiffel Tower.
In fact, the EU Observer notes,
France and Italy are fighting a rearguard action for more flexibility saying budget slashing will condemn them to further low growth. Paris is on collision course with both Berlin and the European Commission after having indicated that it wants an extra two years to bring its budget deficit to below 3 percent of GDP. Italy, meanwhile, has submitted a national budget for 2015 which brings the country to the edge of breaking the rules.
The French challenge to the budget-balance rules compounds the uncertainty emanating from the talks in Athens about a Greek bailout exit. It is more than a theoretical possibility that at least one of these countries leaves the euro zone in the next two years, and does so for a combination of political and economic reasons. That would be an institutional change to the European economy – and really the global economy – of such proportions that no traditional quantitative analysis can render justice to a forecast of its effects. It is therefore entirely logical that global investors are growing more uncertain and as a result demand higher risk premiums.
As the icing on the uncertainty cake, informed investors know that Marine Le Pen may very well become France's next president. If she wins in 2017 her first order of business is in all likelihood going to be to exit the euro zone and reintroduce the franc. On the one hand that could be an "orderly" exit; on the other hand it would have ripple effects throughout the southern rim of the euro zone to the point where the very future of the common currency is in grave danger.
In summary: mounting uncertainty about the future of the euro is being mixed with growing uncertainty about the macroeconomic performance of the member states of the currency union.
Stay tuned for the second part about the bad news out of Europe.
ECB Weakens EU Growth Forecast
Analysts are grasping for explanations of why the European economy has once again stalled. The European Central Bank, which has lowered its forecast for GDP growth in the euro zone, suggests that this weakening is not part of a trend, but an aberration from a trend:
First, activity in the first quarter was subject to an unusual upward effect from the low number of holidays (as the entire Easter school holiday period fell in the second quarter) and from the warm winter weather that had boosted construction. Neither of these upward effects in the first quarter was sufficiently captured by seasonal or working day adjustment. As they unwound in the second quarter, this dampened growth. Second, negative calendar effects related to the more than usual number of "bridge days" around public holidays in many euro area countries may have reduced the number of effective working days in May, a factor that was not captured by the working day adjustment.
I have a lot of respect for the macroeconomists at the ECB, but frankly, this is below what we should expect of them. Calendar days and weather always vary – some claim that the bad performance of the U.S. economy in the first quarter of this year was due to the unusually cold winter. In reality, that growth dip was more than likely the result of businesses trying to adjust to the impact of Obamacare. By contrast, the slow growth numbers in the European economy are part of a trend of economic stagnation. A 30,000-foot review of what the European economy looks like is a good way to become aware of that trend.
The profession of economic has to some degree drifted away from the bigger-picture thinking that characterized its earlier days in the 20th century. While econometrics is important, there is too much emphasis on it today, drawing attention away from longer, bigger trends and the kind of institutional changes that characterize Europe today. Based on this broader analysis, my conclusion stands: Europe is not going to recover until they do something fundamental about their welfare state. Or, more bluntly: so long as taxes remain as high as they are and government provides entitlements the way it does, there is no reason for the productive people in the European economy to bring about a recovery.
The problem with short-sighted, strictly quantitative analysis is that it compels the economist to keep looking for a reason why the economy should recovery, as if it was a law of nature that there should be a recovery.
This problem is reflected in the ECB forecast paper:
Regarding the second half of 2014, while confidence indicators still stand close to their long-term average levels, their recent weakening indicates a rather modest increase in activity in the near term. The weakening of survey data takes place against the background of the recent further intensification of geopolitical tensions (see Box 4) together with uncertainty about the economic reform process in some euro area countries. All in all, the projection entails a rather moderate pick-up in activity in the second half of 2014, weaker than previously expected.
It would be interesting to see the results of a survey like this where the questions centered in on the more long-term oriented variables that focused on people's ability and desire to plan their personal finances. I did a study like that as part of my own graduate work, and the results (reported in my doctoral thesis) were interesting yet hardly surprising. When people are faced with growing uncertainty they try to reduce their long-term economic commitments as much as possible. This results in less economic activity today without any tangible commitment to future spending.
Since I do not have the resources to study consumer and entrepreneurial confidence in Europe at the level the ECB can, I cannot firmly say that people in Europe today feel so uncertain about the future that they have permanently lowered their economic activity. However, my survey results corroborate predictions by economic theory, and the reality on the ground in Europe today points in the very same direction. In other words, so long as institutional uncertainty remains, there will be no recovery in Europe.
The ECB does not consider this aspect. Instead they once again forecast a recovery, just as assorted economists have done for about a year now:
Looking beyond the near term, and assuming no further escalation of global tensions, a gradual acceleration of real GDP growth over the projection horizon is envisaged. Real GDP growth is expected to pick up in 2015 and 2016, with the growth differentials across countries projected to decline, thanks to the progress in overcoming the fragmentation of financial markets, smaller differences in their fiscal policy paths, and the positive impact on activity from past structural reforms in several countries. The projected pick-up in activity will be mainly supported by a strengthening of domestic demand, owing to the accommodative monetary policy stance – further strengthened by the recent standard and non- standard measures – a broadly neutral fiscal stance following years of substantial fiscal tightening, and a return to neutral credit supply conditions. In addition, private consumption should benefit from a pick-up in real disposable income stemming from the favourable impact of low commodity price inflation and rising wage growth.
A key ingredient here is "smaller differences in … fiscal policy paths" and "a broadly neutral fiscal stance". This means that the ECB is expecting an end to austerity policies across the euro zone, an expectation that has been lurking in their forecasts for some time now. But austerity has not ended, nor have the budget deficit problems that brought about austerity. The austerity artillery is not as active now as it was two years ago, but it has not gone quiet. France, e.g., is currently in a political leadership crisis because of the alleged need to continue budget-balancing measures.
France also indicates where the fiscal trend in Europe is heading. If the radical side of the French socialists could have it their way they would chart a course back to big-spending territory. But they would also couple more spending with even higher taxes, in order to avoid conflicts with the debt and deficit rules of the EU Stability and Growth Pact. While technically a "neutral" policy, the macroeconomic fallout would be a further weakening of the private sector – in other words a further weakening of GDP growth.
Another aspect that the ECB overlooks is the effects of the recalibration of the welfare state that has taken place during the austerity years. I am not going to elaborate at length on this point here, but refer instead to my new book where I discuss this phenomenon in more detail. Its macroeconomic meaning, though, is important here: the recalibration results in the welfare state taking more from the private sector, partly in the form of taxes, and giving less back in the form of lower spending. As a result, the private sector is drained, structurally, of more resources, with the inevitable result that long-term GDP growth is even weaker.
None of this is discussed in the ECB forecast paper, which means that we will very likely see more downward adjustments of their growth forecasts in the future.
There would be no problem with the ECB's erroneous forecasts if it was not for the fact that those forecasts are used by policy makers in their decisions on taxes, government spending and monetary supply. The more of these "surprising" downward corrections by forecasters, the more of almost panic-driven decisions we will see. Alas, from EUBusiness.com:
The European Central Bank cut its forecasts for growth in the 18-country euro area this year and next, and also lowered its outlook for area-wide inflation, at a policy meeting on Thursday. The ECB is pencilling in gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 0.9 percent in 2014 and 1.6 percent in 2015, the central bank's president Mario Draghi told a news conference. "Compared with our projections in June, the projections for real GDP growth for 2014 and 2015 have been revised downwards," he said. The bank said inflation was expected to be 0.6 percent this year — a lower rate than the 0.7 originally forecast, Draghi said.
And therefore, the ECB decided to cut its already microscopic interest rates. Among their cuts is a push of the overnight bank lending rate further into negative territory, so that it now stands at -0.3 percent. But all these measures, aimed at injecting more cheap credit into the European economy, will fall as flat on their bellies as earlier interest-rate cuts. The problem is not that there is not enough liquidity in the economy – the problem is, as mentioned earlier, that the European economy suffers from institutional and structural ailments. Those are not fixed with monetary policy. Yet with the wrong analysis of the cause of the crisis, Europe's policy makers will continue to prescribe the wrong medicine and the patient will continue to sink into a vegetative state of stagnation and industrial poverty.
Right and Wrong about Europe
Last Friday I explained that Europe appears to be on its way back to Big Spending country. One major reason is that the policies practiced so far during the Great Recession have proven to be sorely inadequate. Another reason is that Europe suffers from a bad case of conventional wisdom, the default position of which is that there is nothing more important in the economy than the welfare state. As a result, when austerity policies, specifically designed to save the welfare state, fail to do just that while also failing to reignite the economy, voters and political leaders turn to erstwhile solutions such as more government spending. Led there by conventional wisdom, not solid analysis, they are certain to only do more harm to an already ailing patient.
In this situation, clear and crisp crisis analysis is more important than ever. That is the only way to a working solution to the crisis. Unfortunately, the road to such solutions still runs through analytical neighborhoods where arguments about what cause the crisis sprawl in all directions. My blog article from last Friday quoted one example, Dan Steinbock of the India, China and America Institute. This week, Steinbock continues his contribution in the EU Observer::
In the United States, the global financial crisis was unleashed by real estate markets and the financial sector, which caused a dramatic contraction and massive mass unemployment.
That is a superficial explanation. The root cause was a fundamental misinterpretation of a macroeconomic trend. From the late 1970s through the Millennium recession the swings in the American business cycle gradually became weaker. This has been interpreted as a shift to more stable growth, which policy makers in the United States used as a basis for liberalizing the country's credit markets. One part of this liberalization was an expansion of subprime mortgage lending, a reform that makes sense if the expectation is high GDP growth and as a result high growth in disposable income, then the risks associated with subprime lending are well contained. The debt-to-income ratio would not reach alarming levels, perhaps not even grow at all.
There was just one problem. The trend that was interpreted as growth stabilization was also a trend of weakening growth. In the 2000s the American economy grew at about half the pace of the '90s. This led to a relative weakening of the ability of American households to keep up with debt payments. Therefore, it is incorrect to say that this was a financial crisis – it was a macroeconomic crisis that was mismanaged and misinterpreted by key political leaders.
It is important to keep this in mind, because it has consequences for how to get the U.S. economy out of the Great Recession. Steinbock lauds the Obama administration for its "stimulus package", which…
included spending in infrastructure, health and energy, federal tax incentives, expansion of unemployment benefits and other social welfare provisions. It boosted innovation and supported competitiveness.
Frankly, there is no evidence of this. The bulk of the money spent through the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act went to fill revenue gaps in existing government spending programs, at the federal level as well as in the states. This borrowed money may have prevented a massive tax increase, which would have been the other conventional-wisdom option, but it certainly did not expand spending. On the contrary, what was a temporary jump in GDP growth during the stimulus spending, but as soon as it was over the growth rate reverted to pre-stimulus levels. It was not until late 2013 that the very first signs of some sort of recovery were visible. That recovery, though, which is still continuing, is far weaker than it should have been. Why? More on that in a moment. For now, back to the EU Observer, where Steinbock claims that the United States…
was able to rely on common fiscal and monetary policy. When one state got into trouble, it could turn to others for support. Of course, the crisis supported some states and hurt others, but the common institutions worked.
I have worked for state-based think tanks for eight years now, and I have carefully studied state fiscal policy for at least as long. To be perfectly honest, I have no idea what Steinbock is talking about here.
Let's continue to listen to him, though. Maybe he makes more sense when he turns to discussing Europe:
When the 2008/9 crisis hit Europe, the core economies relied on their generous social models, but structural challenges were set aside. That ensured a timeout but boosted threats. In spring 2010, the crisis was still seen as a liquidity issue and a banking crisis. So Brussels launched its €770 billion "shock and awe" rescue package to stabilise the eurozone. As the consensus view grouped behind Brussels, I argued that the rescue package was inadequate and the austerity policy too strict. Further, it ignored multiple other crisis points. And it was likely to result in demonstrations and violence in southern Europe.
While he is correct about the political fallout of the crisis, he is far too vague on the economic variables that drove the European economy into the ditch. As I explain in my book Industrial Poverty (order your hard copy now or get your ebook version very soon!) the cause of the European crisis is to be found in the structure of the welfare state. This structural ailment is present in the American economy as well, though not as pronounced, but it explains why the Western economies experienced a growth slowdown in the 1980s (EU) and on the heels of the Millennium Recession (U.S.).
So long as the structural problem remains, there will be no recovery in the European economy. The United States has been able to recover despite the weight of government, an aspect that Steinbock misses. He does, however, make a good point about mistakes made by the European Central Bank:
[The] European Central Bank (ECB), led by its then-chief Jean-Claude Trichet, moved too slowly and hiked rates instead of cutting them. When the ECB finally reversed its approach, precious time and millions of jobs had been lost. Subsequently, Trichet's successor, Mario Draghi, cut the rates and pledged to defend euro "at any cost." Markets stabilised, but not without huge bailout packages, which divided the eurozone.
Trying to stuff as many explanations as possible of Europe's perennial crisis into the same article, Steinbock then proceeds to point in many different directions at the same time:
As Barroso and his commissioners began to argue that "the worst was over," Brussels hoped to reinforce the trust in euro and the EU and deter the rise of the eurosceptics. But hollow promises resulted in a reverse outcome. What's worse, both Brussels and the core economies failed to provide adequate fiscal adjustment amidst the global crisis and the onset of the eurozone debt crisis, which made bad mass unemployment a lot worse and continues to penalise demand and investment. Further, neither liquidity support nor recapitalisation of the major banks has mitigated the worst insolvency risks in the region. Unlike in the US, many European economies, including Nordic ones, also continued to cut their innovation investments, thus making themselves even more vulnerable in the future. As the crisis spread to Italy and Spain, which together account for almost 30 percent of the eurozone economy, bailout packages could no longer be used. Rather, structural reforms became vital but since they were seen as a political suicide, delays replaced urgency.
Reduced spending on "innovation" is not nearly as important an explanation of the crisis as the structural fiscal imbalances of the welfare state. It is important to separate what matters from what does not matter. Otherwise, one cannot provide solutions to those who are in the position to put them to work.
France and Europe's Economic Future
Europe's version of austerity has been designed exclusively to save the continent's big welfare states in very tough economic times. By raising taxes and cutting spending, governments in Greece, Spain, Italy and other EU member states have hoped to make their welfare states more slim-fit and compatible with a smaller tax base. The metric they have used for their austerity policies is not that the private sector would grow as a result – on the contrary, private-sector activity has been of no concern under government-first austerity. Unemployment has skyrocketed, private-sector activity has plummeted and Europe is in worse shape today than it was in 2011, right before the Great Big Austerity Purge of 2012.
The criticism of austerity was massive, but not in the legitimate form we would expect: instead of pointing to the complete neglect of private-sector activity, Europe's austerity critics have focused entirely on the spending cuts to entitlement programs. While such cuts are necessary for Europe's future, they cannot be executed in a panic-style fashion – they should be structural and remove, not shrink, spending programs. Furthermore, they cannot be combined with tax hikes: when you take away people's entitlements you need to cut, not raise, taxes so they can afford to replace the entitlements with private-funded solutions. Tax hikes, needless to say, drain dry the private sector and exacerbate the recession that produced the need for austerity in the first place.
This is a very simple analysis of what is going on in Europe. It is simple yet accurate: my predictions throughout 2012, 2013 and so far through 2014 have been that there will be no recovery in Europe unless and until they replace government-first austerity with private-sector austerity. This means, plain and simple, that you stop using government-saving metrics as measurement of austerity success and instead focus on the growth of the private sector. This will rule out tax hikes and dictate very different types of spending cuts, namely those that permanently terminate government spending programs.
Unfortunately, this aspect of austerity is absent in Europe. All that is heard is criticism from socialists who want to keep the tax hikes but combine them with more government spending. A continuation, in other words, of what originally caused the current economic crisis (that's right – it was not a financial crisis). These socialists won big in the French elections two years ago, gaining both the Elysee Palace and a majority in the national parliament. However, faced with the harsh economic realities of the Great Recession, they soon found that spending-as-usual was not a very good idea. At the same time, they have rightly seen the problems with the kind of government-first austerity that has been common fiscal practice in Europe. Now that their own agenda is proving to be as destructive as government-first austerity, France's socialists do not know which way to turn anymore. This has led to a political crisis of surprisingly large proportions. Reports the EU Observer:
French Prime Minister Manuel Valls on Monday (25 August) tendered his government's resignation after more leftist ministers voiced criticism to what is being perceived as German-imposed austerity. The embattled French President, Francois Hollande, whose popularity ratings are only 17 percent, accepted the resignation and tasked Valls to form a new cabinet by Tuesday, the Elysee palace said in a press release. "The head of state has asked him [Valls] to form a team in line with the orientation he has defined for our country," the statement added – a reference to further budget cuts needed for France to rein in its public deficit.
From the perspective of the European Union, France has been the bad boy in the classroom, not getting with the government-first austerity programs that have worked so well in Greece (lost one fifth of its GDP) and Spain (second highest youth unemployment in the EU). Hollande's main problem is that by not getting his economy back growing again he is jeopardizing the future of the euro, in two ways. First, perpetual stagnation with zero GDP growth has forced the European Central Bank into a reckless money-supply policy with negative interest rates on bank deposits and a de facto endless commitment to printing money. This alone is reason for the euro to sink, and the only remedy would be that the economies of the euro zone started growing again. Secondly, by exacerbating the recession in France, and by failing endemically to deliver on his promises of more growth and more jobs, Hollande is setting himself up to lose the 2017 presidential election to Marine Le Pen. First on her agenda is to pull France out of the euro; if the zone loses its second-biggest economy, what reasons are there for smaller economies like Greece to stay?
This is why he has now shifted policy foot, from the spending-as-usual strategy of 2012 to government-first austerity. But since neither is good for the private sector, frustration is rising within the ranks of France's socialists to a point where it could cause a crippling political crisis. Euractiv again:
The rebel minister, Arnaud Montebourg, who had held the economy portfolio until Monday, over the weekend criticised his Socialist government for being too German-friendly. "France is a free country which shouldn't be aligning itself with the obsessions of the German right," he said at a Socialist rally on Sunday, urging a "just and sane resistance". The day before, he gave an interview to Le Monde in which he claimed that Germany had "imposed" a policy of austerity across Europe and that other countries should speak out against it. Two more ministers, Benoit Hamon in charge of education and culture minister Aurelie Fillipetti, also rallied around Montebourg and said they will not seek a post in the new cabinet. In a resignation letter addressed to Hollande and Valls, Fillipetti accused them of betraying their voters and abandoning left-wing policies, at a time when the populist National Front is gaining ground everywhere. According to Le Parisien, Valls forced Hollande to let go of Montebourg by telling him "it's either him or me."
Ironically, the main difference between the socialist economic policies and those of the National Front is that the latter want to reintroduce the franc while the former want to stay with the euro. Other than that, the National Front wants to preserve the welfare state, though significantly cut down on the number of non-Europeans who are allowed to benefit from it. The socialists also want to preserve the welfare state, but also open the door for more non-European immigration.
In short, the differences between socialist and nationalist economic policy is limited to nuances. Needless to say, neither will help France back to growth and prosperity.
Meanwhile, according to the Euractiv story there is mounting pressure from outside France on President Hollande to stick with the government-first austerity program:
[The] government turmoil is also a sign of diverging views on how to tackle the country's economic woes. French unemployment is at nearly 11 percent and growth in 2014 is forecast to be of only 0.5 percent. Meanwhile, French officials have already said the deficit will again surpass EU's 3 percent target, and are negotiating another delay with the European Commission. The commission declined to comment on the new developments in France, with a spokeswoman saying they are "aware" and "in contact" with the French government. German chancellor Angela Merkel on Monday during a visit to Spain declined to comment directly about the change in government, but said she wishes "the French president success with his reform agenda." Both Merkel and Spanish PM Mariano Rajoy defended the need for further austerity and economic reforms, saying this boosted economic growth.
Growth – where? What growth is he talking about? But more important than the erroneous statement that the European economy is benefiting from attempts to save the welfare state, France is now becoming the focal point of more than just the future of the current European version of austerity. The struggle between socialists and competing brands of statism is a concentrate of a more general political trend in Europe. The way France goes, the way Europe will go. While the outcome of the statist competition will make a difference to immigration policy, it won't change the general course of the economy. Both factions, nationalists and socialists, want to keep the welfare state and therefore preserve the very cause of Europe's economic stagnation (which by the way is now in its sixth year).
Europe needs a libertarian renaissance. Its entrepreneurs, investors and workers need to stand up together and say "Laissez-nous faire!" with one voice. Then, and only then, will they elevate Europe back to where she belongs, namely at the top of the world's prosperity league.
Italian Economy in Reverse
There is yet more evidence that Europe, unlike the United States, is going to remain in a state of economic stagnation for a while longer. The EU Observer reports:
Italy has slipped back into recession putting pressure on Prime Minister Matteo Renzi to fulfil promises to see through major structural reform to boost growth. The Italian economy, the third largest in the eurozone, shrank 0.2 percent in the second [quarter], the country's national statistics office said Wednesday (6 August).
The only quarterly number that Eurostat has released so far is the one adjusted for seasons and workdays, a number I would rarely use. However, it has its merits, too, as it comes as close as you can to linking GDP to the abstracted performance of economic agents. Compared to the same quarter 2013, this number shows a 0.3-percent drop in GDP over the same quarter 2013. Going back two years, the total decline is 2.5 percent. While the bulk of that decline took place in 2013, the country is still suffering from government-saving austerity programs designed to bring Italy into compliance with EU debt and deficit mandates.
But it is not over yet for Italy, not by a long shot. EU Observer again:
Finance minister Pier Carlo Padoan defended the government's reform plans and said the country would not now need a corrective mini budget to stay on the right side of the EU's fiscal rules. "The (GDP) figure is negative, but there are also positive elements. Industrial production is much better and consumer spending is continuing to increase, albeit slowly," said Padoan
This statement is revealing of the purpose behind austerity. Everywhere in Europe, political leaders measure the success of austerity in terms of government fiscal balances; the metric never includes GDP growth. Greece is the prime example of this, where government-saving austerity peeled away one fifth of GDP in fixed prices. The Spanish encounter with austerity exemplifies similarly warped policy goal setting.
In addition, the finance minister's statement about consumer spending is downright false. While there are no second-quarter Eurostat numbers yet on the spending of Italian consumers, first-quarter numbers are downright troubling. From Q1 2012 to Q1 2014, Italy's consumer spending declined four percent. Over the last year, Q1 2013 to Q1 2014, the decline was a modest half-percent, but that is still a decline – not an increase.
Even if the GDP and consumption numbers indicate that the decline in Italian economic activity is coming to an end, there are no real signs of a sustainable uptick. It would be foolish to expect anything else, as the main fiscal-policy priority of the Italian government remains the same: save the welfare state. As we go back to the EU Observer, we get even more indications that nothing is really going to change for the better in the Italian economy:
The Italian PM has been among those calling the loudest for flexibility in the interpretation of the rules that govern debt and deficits in the eurozone. However other partners and the EU commission have indicated they wanted to see more structural reform undertaken first. The commission reiterated this on Wednesday and noted that Italy had already been told that it should stick to its budget plans. The other leader calling for flexibility and support from its EU partners is France's Francois Hollande. In an interview with Le Monde recently, the French president urged Germany and the European Central Bank to do more to boost growth.
Three points.
1. The Italian prime minister's call for more flexibility in the interpretation of the EU's stability and growth pact is really nothing more than a request to be allowed to increase government spending. It echoes what the socialist French president has been demanding for almost two years. However, the last thing Europe needs is more government spending.
2. When European political leaders talk about "structural reform" they do not refer to the kind of reforms actually needed, namely an orderly phase-out of the welfare state. Their take on "structural" is entirely regulatory and focused mostly on the labor market. But regulations do not build a structure – they are part of it, but they are not a structure in themselves. Furthermore, it is pointless to relax labor-market regulations without permanent tax cuts and terminations of government spending programs. Deregulation is supposed to make it easier for employers to hire and fire, but if there is no more demand for labor after the deregulation than before, there won't be any more jobs out there.
3. It is rather amusing to see how the French president is urging others, outside of his domain, to do more for economic growth. In essence, he is telling the Germans to run their economy better, so he can continue to raise hate-the-rich taxes and drive even more entrepreneurs and hard-working high-end professionals out of France.
In conclusion, there still is no case for an economic recovery in Europe. The continent is now on its sixth year of stagnation, and in some countries an outright depression. Monetary policy has now taken the entire euro zone into the liquidity trap while fiscal policy remains stubbornly fixated on government-saving austerity policies.
Youth unemployment remains stuck above 22 percent in the EU, and above 23 percent in the euro zone. An entire generation is lost.
As painful as it is to say it, Europe is turning into an economic wasteland. It is entirely self-inflicted and if the Europeans want get out of their permanent crisis, they have the solution in their hands.
The Future of the Euro
The economic problems in Europe make themselves known in many different ways. Among them, a weakening of the euro. TorFX reports, via EUBusiness.com:
While the Euro recovered losses sustained in the wake of Portugal's mini-banking crisis earlier in the month, the common currency put on a fairly lacklustre performance last week. The Euro dropped to a fresh 22-month low against the Pound and struggled against the US Dollar as investors speculated on the prospect of the European Central Bank bringing in additional stimulus measures.
It is important to keep in mind that exchange rates swing very frequently and sometimes violently, only to return to long-term stability. However, there is more than a short-term message in a 22-month low for the euro. Four variables are aligning to make the euro's future difficult:
1. The negative interest rate. The ECB is penalizing banks for depositing excess liquidity with the bank's overnight accounts. Even the moderately skilled speculator knows that a negative interest rate means he will have less money on Friday than he had on Monday, which of course drives investors to other currencies. The British pound comes to mind, as does the U.S. dollar. The problem for Europe is that once it has dug itself into a hole with the negative interest rate, it is mighty hard for the ECB to get out of there without any macroeconomic gains to show for it. The argument for the negative interest rate is that it will "encourage" more lending to non-financial corporations – business investments, for short. But businesses do not want to invest unless they have credible reasons to believe they will be able to pay back the loans. That really does not change because interest rates drop from almost zero to zero.
Bottom line: the ECB has entered the liquidity trap and will be stuck there for a long time to come, negative interest rate and all. This weakens the currency, especially over the short term.
2. Deflation. Part of the reason for the ECB's move into negative interest territory is the spreading fear of deflation. The past few years have shown that a rapid expansion of the money supply has no effect on inflation, either in Europe or in the United States. Therefore, the ECB cannot reasonably be hoping to cause monetary inflation with a desperate move like negative interest rates. Its hope is instead hitched to a rise in business investments which would cause inflation through traditional, Phillips-curve style excess-demand effects.
Bottom line: not gonna happen. As mentioned earlier, businesses are not borrowing at almost-zero interest rates – why would they borrow at zero rates? There is no profit-promising activity in other parts of the economy, and there won't be, as our next point explains.
3. Austerity and government debt. Ever since the Great Recession began, Europe has used austerity not to reduce the size of government, but to preserve the welfare state. This has led to perennially slow or non-existent GDP growth and high, perennial unemployment. This has two consequences that spell trouble for the euro over the longer term. The first is that persistent lack of economic activity discourages business investments per se. Austerity, European style, includes tax hikes which constitute further government incursions into the private sector. The perpetuation of European austerity therefore means the perpetuation of low levels of business activity. The second consequence is that even if economic activity picks up, because, e.g., a long-term rise in exports (unlikely to happen) there is so much excess capacity in the economy that there will be no excess-demand driven inflation for a year, maybe even two. The excess supply, of course, consists of massive amounts of un-demanded liquidity slushing around in the European economy, and perennially high unemployment, including 20+ percent youth unemployment in a majority of EU member states.
Bottom line: political preferences to preserve the welfare state will keep macroeconomic activity low. Long-term outlook is continued stagnation. No support for a return to interest rates above liquidity-trap levels.
4. Continued recovery in the United States. Despite dismal growth numbers for the first quarter, the long-term outlook for the U.S. economy is moderately positive. We have not applied the destructive European version of austerity, even though its tax-hiking component makes it a wet dream for many statists. Furthermore, Obama has been surprisingly restrained on the spending side of the federal budget, being far more fiscally conservative than, e.g., Ronald Reagan. This has created reasonably good space for U.S. businesses to grow. There are caveats, though, such as the implementation of Obamacare, which in all likelihood contributed to the negative GDP number in the first quarter of this year. There has also been a regulatory barrage from the Obama administration that has stifled a lot of business activity, although it has subsided somewhat in the last year and a half. But even a moderately positive business climate makes the U.S. economy notably stronger than its European competitor.
Bottom line: a slowly strengthening dollar will attract investments that otherwise would have gone to the euro zone, putting further downward pressure on the euro.
There is actually a fifth variable, which is entirely political. If Marine Le Pen gets elected president in France in 2017 she will pull her country out of the euro. That means goodnight and farewell for the common currency. Long-term minded investors would be wise to keep this in mind.
All in all, the case for the euro is not good. Stagnation at best, weakening more likely, with the probability of its demise slowly gaining strength.
More Tensions over Stability Pact
The European Parliament elections in May conveyed a somewhat schizophrenic voter message. At the end of the day, though, the inevitable outcome is a strong gain for the left. Socialists were emboldened, as were their fellow statist nationalists. Both flanks are pushing for a number of policy reforms that, taken together, could very well mark the beginning of the end of the European Union as we know it. On the left, more and more voices demand a restoration of Europe's austerity-tarnished welfare state. Some of those demands come in the form of attacks on the Stability and Growth Pact, which dictates budget deficit caps for all EU member states, attacks that are motivated by the desire to rebuild the welfare state.
Europe's left turn seems to continue at the state level, and with it the criticism of the prevailing austerity doctrine. The most recent example is from Slovenia. Euractiv reports:
Center-left political novice Miro Cerar led his party to victory in Slovenia's election … (13 July), indicating he would rewrite a reform package agreed upon with the European Union to fix the euro zone member's depleted finances. The result will test investor nerves, given Cerar's hostility to some of the big-ticket privatization programmes that the EU says are key to a long-term fix for Slovenia, which narrowly avoided having to seek an international bailout for its banks last year.
Selling off government-owned businesses is a way to temporarily reduce the budget deficit:
Cerar's government will now oversee a raft of crisis measures agreed upon with the EU, in order to reduce Slovenia's budget deficit and remake an economy heavily controlled by the state. Cerar, however, opposes the sale of telecoms provider Telekom Slovenia and the international airport, Aerodrom Ljubljana, fuelling investor fears of backsliding. … He said his cabinet would immediately consider which companies would remain in state hands and what to do with the rest. … The outgoing government suspended the privatization process this month pending the formation of a new government, which is not expected before mid-September. Cerar will have to find other ways to raise cash if he is to meet to targets agreed to with the EU, in order to slash Slovenia's budget deficit to 3% of output by 2015, from a forecast 4.2% this year.
The Slovenians better make up their minds on this issue. According to the EU Observer, the EU and the ECB are not budging on the Stability and Growth Pact:
ECB boss Mario Draghi urged EU leaders not to meddle with the bloc's rules on debt and deficits on Monday, warning that it could turn the tide on much needed economic reforms.
It remains to be seen to what extent the emboldened left in the European Parliament can influence the way the EU Commission interprets the Stability and Growth Pact. So far, though, the Draghi view is also that of the Commission.
And just to add to the schizophrenia of current European politics, Draghi added a curious remark:
Addressing MEPs on the Parliament's economic affairs committee in Strasbourg (14 July), Draghi said structural reforms combined with government spending cuts and lower taxes were the only route to restoring economic stability. "There should be a profound structural reform process," he said, adding that "there is no other way". "We should take great care not to roll back this important achievement, or to water down its implementation to an extent that it would no longer be seen as a credible framework," he said.
The combination of less government spending and lower taxes is almost the antithesis of what the EU and the ECB have been preaching to euro-zone member states in the past few years. The austerity packages they have forced on member states have been of the government-first kind, aimed at balancing budgets to make welfare states more fiscally sustainable.
This type of austerity relies at least partly on tax increases. A combination of less taxes and less spending is in fact not austerity at all – it is a policy for government roll-back. If Draghi really means this, he is the first major EU figure to step forward and promote such a structural change to the Euoropean economy.
It is unlikely, though, that Draghi will get much support for any kind of permanent reduction of government. There is far too much power to be had in making the Stability and Growth Pact more flexible. Not only does it allow statist politicians to save their welfare states, but it also opens for a classic form of "Italian governance". The EU Observer again:
Italian prime minister Matteo Renzi, whose government holds the EU's six month presidency, has led calls for the pact's rules to be applied with more flexibility to allow governments to increase public investment programmes. The demand was rejected by Draghi who stated that "the present rules already contain enough flexibility". "If a rule is a rule then it has to be complied with," he said, commenting that "I'm not sure I get – perhaps because I lack political skills – the chemistry of flexibility being essential to make a rule credible".
It's simple. The flexibility that Renzi wants is simply a way to apply a general law selectively. That, in turn, gives elected officials more power, as they can oversee the "flexible" application and choose who will get and exception and who will not. Inevitably, the choice will be made based at least in part on the size of the brown envelopes that exchange hands under the negotiation tables in Brussels.
Between corruption and the welfare state, big government has enough supporters to stay right where it is in Europe. Furthermore, regardless of what kind of interpretation of the Stability and Growth Pact that will set the tone in the next few years, it is going to be there as a power tool for the EU over the member states. The left's desire for more flexibility is just a desire to put more direct power in the hands of bureaucrats and legislatures.
A Recipe for Industrial Poverty
I got some really positive feedback on my first austerity video. Thank you! The topic is timely, especially with reference to the crisis in Europe. After the elections in May when statist parties on the left gained seats in the European Parliament, the debate over how to handle the perennial economic slump has intensified. Austerity critics have become more vocal, and the funniest part of that is that they do not even realize that the kind of austerity they criticize is really the kind I define as "Government-First" austerity in my video.
This is telling of what the debate over austerity in Europe is really about, and who the participants are. Proponents of the European version of austerity are not out to reduce the size of government, but to make sure government – the welfare state to be precise – survives the recession as unharmed as possible. As I point out on the video, if they had a "Limited Government" purpose behind their austerity they would use private-sector growth, or lack thereof, as their metrics for whether or not austerity was successful. But since private-sector activity has been plunging in the countries hit worst by the European version of austerity, it is clear that the purpose behind austerity as applied in the EU is of the "Government First" kind.
This puts an absurd light on far-leftist criticism of austerity. Since there are no limited-government proponents on the scene in the European debate, statists are bashing statists over not using the right tools to save the welfare state. With the noise from their fight rising, it is becoming increasingly likely that my predictions for Europe's future will come true: the continent is bound for a new form of stagnation. So long as Europe does not dispose of the welfare state, they will end up right there, in the economic wasteland of industrial poverty.
The harder the far left works to end government-first austerity, the farther to the left they will pull economic policy in Europe. Instead of trying to balance government budgets as a means toward saving the welfare state, the far left does not even want to have to worry about the budget. Their attacks on the EU's constitutional stability and growth pact are symptomatic of this.
Austerity criticism is not limited to the EU level. Wherever socialists have made headway in national parliamentary elections they raise their anti-austerity voices. Italy is a case in point, as illustrated by an article in the EU Observer:
The EU is at a "crossroads" between accepting a long period of austerity and high unemployment or taking steps to boost an economic recovery, Italian prime minister Matteo Renzi has warned. Speaking in national parliament on Tuesday (24 June), Renzi told deputies that "high priests and prophets of austerity" were stifling the European economy. Renzi's government takes control of the EU's six month rotating presidency next week and has indicated that migration and the bloc's stability and growth pact will be its main policy priorities. The Italian prime minister has led calls for the pact's rules on budget deficits to be interpreted in a way that encourages more public investment.
In other words, what they want to be able to do is to spend more on government-run, tax-funded education, on more roads, mass transit and so called research and development programs. They also want to pour more money into non-fossil energy, the kind of complete waste that has been Germany's failed attempt at replacing nuclear energy with "renewable" energy sources. (Out of utter panic over rising energy prices, Germany is now building coal power plants almost as fast as the Chinese.)
None of that spending would help the economy grow. If you tax the private sector into oblivion, it does not matter if it can ship its products on four-lane highways or six-lane highways. There won't be anyone there to buy their products in the first place. It matters even less if the energy that manufacturers would use is from sometimes-producing wind turbines or sometimes-producing solar panels. If the energy is too expensive to make manufacturing competitive, nobody is going to want to buy it in the first place.
Europe does not need more government. It does not need more government-first austerity either. It needs limited-government austerity. And soon. Otherwise, it is basically over for Europe as a first-world continent.
Austerity – Theory and Practice, Part 1
Here is the first in a four-part series on austerity, its theory, its application and its consequences:
More Gasoline on EU's Fiscal Fire
Europe's political leaders are showing more and more signs of discomfort – not to say emerging panic – over an economic crisis that just won't go away. My diagnosis is that this is a permanent crisis, brought upon Europe by its fiscally obese and unsustainable welfare state. (Make sure to get my book Industrial Poverty when it comes out August 28!) By consequence, it is therefore not possible for Europe to get out of the crisis unless they first roll back and eventually fully dismantle their welfare state.
Not everyone agrees. As the EU Observer reports, the social affairs commissioner of the EU – compare him to the U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services – is getting mighty frustrated with the crisis and calls for a restoration of the welfare state:
The EU's social affairs commissioner on Friday (13 June) lashed out at the EU's response to the economic crisis. Lazlo Andor, in a speech delivered in Berlin, said debt-curbing policies designed to resolve the sovereign debt crisis have wrecked Europe's social welfare model. "Austerity policies in many cases actually aggravated the economic crisis," he said.
Has he been sneak-peeking on this blog? Apparently, because he cannot have read my articles in full. If he had, he would know that there are two answers to his frustration over austerity and the crisis. On the one hand, yes, the spending cuts have slashed entitlement programs and made it tougher to get by on government handouts. On the other hand, though, the current European austerity model has raised taxes on businesses and households. This has stifled economic growth and thus made it harder for people to get out of their government dependency.
The reason for this is that austerity, as designed and carried out during the crisis in Europe, has had the purpose of balancing the government budget – even at the cost of depressed private-sector activity. Other forms of austerity, applied back in the late 20th century, had other goals, among them to inspire growth in the private sector. The difference is monumental for the outcome of an austerity strategy.
Europe has been under the statist version of austerity, the purpose of which is to balance the government budget and therefore restore fiscal sustainability in government. The reason for this, in turn, is that as Europe's political leaders designed a response to the crisis, it never occurred to them that the very existence of a welfare state could have something to do with the crisis.
Back to the EU Observer:
He described the EU's economic and monetary union (EMU) as flawed from the start, forcing troubled member states to make deep cuts in the private and public sectors via internal devaluation. "Internal devaluation has resulted in high unemployment, falling household incomes and rising poverty – literally misery for tens of millions of people," he said.
This is a technical level of macroeconomics. What Commissioner Andor is saying is actually that Greece would have been better off when the crisis began if they had been able to devalue their own currency – the drachma – vs the Deutsch mark. However, that is a way to grossly simplify the problem: the argument rests on the assumption that Greece fell into a depression because of bad terms of trade vs. Germany. But the fact of the matter is that Greece was in trouble for years before the outbreak of the Great Recession, with deficit and debt problems resulting not from insufficient exports capacity (which is what Commissioner Andor alludes to) but from a vast system of entitlement programs that promised a lot more to their recipients than taxpayers could afford.
The EU Observer again:
[The] EMU is gripped by a social and economic paradox. "On the one hand, we introduce social legislation to improve labour standards and create fair competition in the EU. On the other hand, we settle with a monetary union which, in the long run, deepens asymmetries in the community and erodes the fiscal base for national welfare states," he said.
There you go. No blame on the welfare state, all blame on admittedly dysfunctional EU institutions. But the role of the EU did not become acute until the economic crisis had escalated to depression-level conditions in some southern EU states. It was not until the Troika (EU-ECB-IMF) went to work in 2010-11 that the venom of ill-designed austerity went to work deep inside the economies of Greece, Spain, Portugal and Italy. By then, the crisis had already started, it had escalated and caused runaway unemployment and rampant deficits.
So long as Commissioner Andor persists in believing that the welfare state is the victim, not the culprit, in this crisis, the crisis will prevail.
Commissioner Andor's complete ignorance on this item is revealed as the EU Observer story reaches its crescendo:
A possible way out, he says, is to disperse some money from national coffers through so-called "fiscal transfers" between member states using the euro. Some of the pooled money would be used, in part, to fund a European Unemployment scheme to better prop up domestic demand, says Andor.
How many entitlement programs, and how many levels of government, do you have to involve before government expansionists understand that pouring more gasoline on the fire is not going to put out the flames?


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subset: commoncrawl


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text:
Abstract available in
Claims available in
Description (OCR text may contain errors)
P 23, 1969 N. s. KHOURY 3,468,452
AEROSOL CAN END WITH REINFORCED CURL Filed Nov. 27. 1967 N\CK S. KHOURY ATTORNEYS 4154A 642;, AhZF Q QMW United States Patent 3,468,452 AEROSOL CAN END WITH REINFORCED CURL Nick S. Khoury, Chicago, Ill., assignor to Continental Can Company, Inc., New York, N.Y., a corporation of New York Filed Nov. 27, 1967, Ser. No. 685,865 Int. Cl. B65d 7/42 US. Cl. 220-67 7 Claims ABSTRACT OF THE DISCLOSURE This invention is directed to an aerosol can end defined by an end panel terminating in a radially outwardly, downwardly directed curl which is reinforced in a manner to prevent distortion thereof when a conventional valve cup is crimpingly secured thereto. The reinforcing means is a plurality of reinforcing beads spaced along the periphery of the curl which imparts a wave-like configuration thereto defined by alternating lands and valleys. The lands further function as means for venting propellant which might otherwise be entrapped within the curl to atmosphere after a charging operation.
The usual aerosol container includes a container body to which is generally secured a can end terminating in a radially outwardly downwardly and inwardly directed curl. The function of the curl is that of serving as a support for a conventional valve-carrying valve cup which generally includes an annular channel which receives and is crimped upon the curl. Such conventional curls have been found to include two distinct disadvantages, the first of which is the tendency of the curl to deflect or distort during the crimping operation. This causes leakers i.e., the escape of propellant after a charging operation between the surfaces of the valve cup and the curl, which when detected result in the financially wasteful discarding of the entire container.
A second disadvantage results from the fact that during a charging operation it is common to cover the entire can end with a propellant charging head which introduces the propellant under pressure into the interior of the can after which the valve cup is crimped thereto. The propellant charging head is, however, spaced radially outwardly of the curl and propellant is not only directed into the container but is also forced into the interior of the curl. Upon the removal of the propellant charging head there is no means provided in conventional aerosol can ends for rapidly venting the propellant within the curl to atmosphere. When such a charged container is later tested for leakers any slight escape of the pressurized propellant outwardly of the curl between the edge thereof and an adjacent edge of the can end would be detected and interpreted as a leaker, again resulting in the finanically wasteful discard of a perfectly satisfactory container.
In keeping with the foregoing it is a primary object of this invention to avoid the noted disadvantages of aerosol containers by providing a container or can end which terminates in a reinforced curl which prevents the curl from distorting upon the performance of the crimping operation, and the reinforced curl being contoured to a generally wave-like configuration defined by alternating land and valley portions whereby each land portion defines venting means for rapidly discharging propellant within the curl to atmosphere.
With the above and other objects in view that will hereinafter appear, the nature of the invention will be more clearly understood by reference to the following detailed description, the appended claimed subject matter, and the several views illustrated in the accompanying drawing.
In the drawing:
FIGURE 1 is a bottom perspective view of an aerosol can end constructed in accordance with this invention, and illustrates a peripheral curl of the can end being provided with a plurality of reinforcing beads imparting a generally wave-like configuration thereto.
FIGURE 2 is an enlarged fragmentary sectional view of the can end of FIGURE 1 with parts broken away for clarity, and illustrates the manner in which a valve cup is crimped to the reinforced curl.
FIGURE 3 is a sectional view of the can end taken generally along line 3-3 of FIGURE 2, and more clearly illustrates the equal peripheral spacing of the reinforcing beads along a peripheral edge portion of the curl.
FIGURE 4 is a highly enlarged fragmentary sectional view taken generally along line 44 of FIGURE 3, and illustrates one of the reinforcing beads defining a valley portion of the curl and an adjacent land portion beneath which propellant within the curl is free to vent to atmosphere.
FIGURE 5 is a sectional view taken along line 5-5 of FIGURE 4, and more clearly illustrates the land and valley portions of the reinforced curl.
A novel can or container end constructed in accordance with this invention is fully illustrated in the drawing, and is generally designated by the reference numeral 10. The can end 10 is of the conventional dome-like configuration and includes an end panel 11 which is conventionally secured to a generally cylindrical can body '12 by a seam 13. The body 12 is closed at its opposite end by a bottom panel or wall (not shown) which may be an integral portion of the body 12, or a separate end secured thereto by a seam corresponding to the seam 13.
The end panel 11 of the end 10 further includes an annular shoulder 13 having an exterior surface 14. The shoulder 13 is integrally joined by a radius portion 15 to a curl 16 which is directed respectively upwardly, radially outwardly, downwardly and radially inwardly to define a chamber 17. The curl '16 terminates adjacent the shoulder 13 in a peripheral edge portion 18 which in turn includes a free terminal edge 20.
As is best illustrated in FIGURES 2, 4 and 5 of the drawings, the peripheral edge portion 18 is provided with a plurality of peripherally spaced reinforcing beads 21 which define valley portions along which the peripheral edge 21 contacts the outer surface 14 of the shoulder 13. Between adjacent pairs of the beads 21 is disposed a land portion 22 (FIGURES 4 and 5) defining a vent opening 23 between the outer surface 14 of the shoulder 13 and the edge 20 of each land portion 22. The combined and alternating land and valley portions 22, 21 thereby impart a generally wave-like configuration to the peripheral end portion 18 and the edge 20 of the curl '16.
Reference is now made to FIGURE 2 of the drawing which illustrates a conventional aerosol dispensing valve 25 carried by a valve cup 26 which is secured to the curl 16 by a downwardly opening annular channel 27 which is crimped radially outwardly along a peripheral portion 28 beneath the shoulder 13.
Assuming the edge 20 of the peripheral curl 16 was perfectly cylindrical as in conventional curl structures, the crimping of the valve cap 26 upon such a curl would result in the free terminal edge intimately engaging the outer surface 14 of the shoulder 13 thereby virtually completely closing the annular chamber 17 of such a curl. However, in accordance with the instant invention the crimping operation in no way distorts the curl 16 which, as was heretofore noted, is reinforced by the wave-like configuration imparted thereto by the land and valley portions 22, 21, and the spaces 23 about the entire periphery of the edge portion 18 permit propellant which would be otherwise entrapped in the annular chamber 18 to vent to atmosphere in the manner indicated by the unnumbered headed arrows in FIGURES 4 and 5. Therefore, the reinforcement of the curl 16 not only prevents leakers by assuring that the curl 16 will not distort or collapse during the crimping operation, but also assures that perfectly sound aerosol cans will not be discarded as leakers due to the positive venting of propellant within the chamber 17 to atmosphere prior to the testing of filled and charged containers.
While preferred forms and arrangement of parts have been shown in illustrating the invention, it is to be clearly understood that various changes in details and arrangement of parts may be made without departing from the spirit and scope of the invention.
I claim:
1. In a container end of the type particularly adapted for aerosol-type dispensing containers, the end being defined by an end panel terminating in a peripheral curl defining an opening of the end, the improvement comprising means for reinforcing said curl to prevent distortion thereof upon the crimping of a valve cup channel upon said curl, said reinforcing means being a plurality of reinforcing beads integrally formed from the material of said curl, said curl terminating in a peripheral edge portion having a free terminal edge, and said beads being formed transversely of said edge portion and spaced along said peripheral edge portion immediately adjacent and at said free edge.
2. The container end as defined in claim 1 wherein said beads impart a generally wave-like configuration to a peripheral edge portion of said curl.
3. The container as defined in claim 1 including means between peripherally adjacent pairs of said beads for venting a fluid medium which might otherwise be entrapped interiorly of said curl, said venting means being a valley portion of said curl in spaced relationship to an adjacent portion of said end panel.
4. The container as defined in claim 1 wherein said beads impart a generally wave-like configuration to a peripheral edge of said curl, each head defines a valleylike edge portion of said peripheral edge, and said valleylike edge portions are more closely contiguous said end panel than adjoining land-like edge portions therebetween.
5. The container as defined in claim 4 wherein said curl is directed radially outwardly downwardly and inwardly with said peripheral edge disposed contiguous an outer surface of said end panel, and said valley-like edge portion define opening means through which a fluid medium introduced into said curl can be vented to atmosphere.
6. The container as defined in claimed 1 including means between peripherally adjacent pairs of said beads for venting a fluid medium which might otherwise be entrapped interiorly of said curl.
7. The container as defined in claim 6 including a valve cup having a channel within which is received said curl, and said channel having a peripheral edge spaced from an exterior surface of said end panel whereby a fiuid medium may be vented through said venting means and beyond said channel.
References Cited UNITED STATES PATENTS 203,328 571878 Edgar 220-74 2,558,723 7/1951 Ayres 22044 X 2,643,914 6/1953 Reswick.
2,995,270 8/ 1961 Henchert 22067 JOSEPH R. LECLAIR, Primary Examiner J. R. GARRETT, Assistant Examiner US. Cl. X.R. 22074; 222-182
Patent Citations
Referenced by
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Thank you and a belated Happy Thanksgiving to you and yours.
Happy Thanksgiving!! I hope you ate lots of turkey!!
Happy Thanksgiving, travel safe....
Happy Thanksgiving to you & your family. ...Have a wonderful day....
Hey Catman, Thanks for the BD wishes. It was a wonderful time spent with friends on College Game Day. Last night didn't feel too great, and now today I have the flu. I'll either get better or not make it...LOL. Happy Thanksgiving if I don't get back to you ! I have at least 100 to thank for the wishes !
I would recognize the F4U anywhere. One of my favorite WWII fighters .
Stick it in your ear you silly childish fool.
The Tri Motor pics are posted in my albums.
It was a great flight.
I always saw the RonJon's in Flordia but it was only this past summer I found out that the orginal store was in NJ.
K-101 forever !
My father-in-law runs an operation in Wyoming. My understanding is that they are the first 46's to be released into the civilian world, so there is a mountain of red tape to cut through.


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i saw ronnie laughton at his finest last night. we were sat behind the sticks at the railway end, a player tackled just short reached out with the ball in one hand and slammed it down, but it was well short, he then lifted it again, one handed, and slammed it down again, just on the line. up trots ronnie and gives the try. the clearest double movement i've seen for years. we just looked at each other in disbelief
The Bradford player who scored the try then came off and the coach said 'Thought that was a double movement'. The player then said 'so did I'!! Good old ronnie


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November 25, 2014
Monday, November 24, 2014Gallery of Snow Day Photos -
Sunday, November 23, 2014Anderson Tree Lighting -
Friday, November 21, 2014Annual Thanksgiving Breakfast -
Thursday, November 20, 2014McNicholas commemorates Veteran's Day with memorial rededication -
Saturday, November 15, 2014
FBI Warns of Cyber Scammers Targeting Holiday Shoppers Scammers Target Black Friday and Cyber Monday Shoppers with One-Day Promotions FBI San Diego November 19, 2014 In advance of the holiday season, the San Diego FBI Field Office reminds shoppers to beware of cyber criminals and their aggressive and creative ways to steal money and personal information. Scammers use many techniques to fool potential victims, including fraudulent auction sales, reshipping merchandise purchased with a stolen credit card, sale of fraudulent or stolen gift cards through auction sites at discounted prices, and phishing e-mails advertising brand name merchandise for bargain prices or…
Our first measurable snow of the season came a bit earlier than normal. We asked residents to send in their snow day photos! The title of each photo contains the name of the photographer. Here they are:
Anderson Tree Lighting an evening of holiday tradition, family-friendly fun Make holiday magic at Anderson Towne Center this year at the Anderson Township Tree Lighting, scheduled for Saturday, Dec. 6, on the Towne Center streetscape. This 11th annual event begins at 4 p.m., with Santa arriving at 4:15 p.m. The holiday tree lighting ceremony starts at 6 p.m. Obtain a holiday passport under the Towne Center clock tower, and visit six participating Towne Center businesses. Then exchange the passport for a gift bag and entry for raffle prizes. Other activities for this year include horse-drawn wagon rides, a kids' craft/cookie…
Anderson Area Chamber hosts 42nd Annual Thanksgiving Breakfast The Anderson Area Chamber of Commerce invites all residents to attend its Thanksgiving Breakfast presented by PNC Bank, a long running community event, now in its 42nd year. The event takes place Wednesday, November 26, 2014 from 7:30am – 9:00pm at Anderson Hills United Methodist Church Fellowship Hall. It is a great way to kick-off the holiday season! Join us for a community breakfast giving thanks for all that we have and share in fellowship with friends and neighbors. Enjoy a delicious catered breakfast provided by Arden Courts of Anderson and an…
By Lauren Fisher Editor-in-Chief of McNicholas Journalism Staff On Wednesday, Nov. 11, students and faculty at Archbishop McNicholas High School assembled in honor of over 200 McNicholas alumni who have served their nation in the armed forces. During the hour-long service, the school rededicated its military memorial, which commemorates the lives of five McNicholas graduates who paid the ultimate sacrifice while serving their country. Gathering together near the memorial, the student body joined the nation's veterans and the families of those McNicholas alumni who have fallen in the line of duty. Social Studies teacher Frank Lowden began the ceremony by…
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Sweets & Meats brings mobile BBQ pit to The Mt. Washington Creamy Whip Sweets & Meats, LLC is a new restaurant start up with roots in Mt.Washington. Local residents, Kristen Bailey and Anton Gaffney, were inspired by the feedback of loved ones who regularly attended their backyard BBQ's and wanted to share their finger licking good dishes with the rest of the world. The business was established in September 2014. They recently accepted delivery on a custom built BBQ pit from Section, Alabama and will be serving up BBQ and homemade sides at The Mt.Washington Creamy Whip on weekends, beginning…
Shop, Eat and Have Fun for a Cause at MercyFest, the Mercy Health – Anderson Hospital Guild's Annual Holiday Boutique and Luncheon From Nanette Bentley, Mercy Health As the end of the year inches ever closer, the holidays definitely loom. Whether you love them or loathe them, the Guild of Mercy Health – Anderson Hospital can make your holiday shopping easier – and ensure you have a great day out while supporting a good cause – thanks to MercyFest, the Guild's popular annual holiday boutique and luncheon. Mercy Health – Cincinnati, which provides advanced, quality care with compassion in your…
Alert Number I-100714-PSA FRAUDULENT WEBSITES POSING AS GREEN DOT MONEYPAK CUSTOMER SUPPORT The FBI Internet Crime Complaint Center (IC3) has received numerous complaints reporting fraudulent websites posing as MoneyPak customer support. MoneyPak is a non-reloadable, prepaid product offered by Green Dot. Complaints indicate victims locate the websites via internet search engines. Interaction between the victims and the fraudulent customer support generally occurs via telephone. The IC3 has noticed different variations of this scam. The victim is seeking a refund from an already purchased MoneyPak card and contacts the information listed on the website. A customer service "representative" will ask the…
From Kristine Miller: Eagle Scout Ryann Syvertsen, member of Troop 112, built an outdoor worship space at his church, Lutheran Church of the Resurrection in Anderson Township. Ryann planned the project for almost a year, making a presentation to the church council for approval, fundraising and countless hours of physical labor. Lutheran Church of the Resurrection holds outdoor services in the summer in its memorial garden. This involved bringing out folding chairs each Sunday. Ryann saw the need for permanent seating, both for the summer service and for those wishing to sit and pray in the garden. Ryann said, "I…
Sunrock Farm thought you would like to know that Farmer Frank passed away peacefully on Tuesday, September 16. A memorial service will be held at Southgate Community Center at 10 a.m. this Saturday. Please see Sunrock Farm's Facebook page or visit Sunrockfarm.org for more information. No flowers, please. A Farmer Frank Traina memorial fund has been set up for those who wish to donate. Farmer Frank Passes But His Legacy Lives On Sunrock Farm is saddened to announce the passing of "Farmer" Frank Traina. Frank was the creator and operator of Sunrock Farm for over 30 years. His vision and…
From Wayne Lurix: Wayne and Karen Lurix of Union Township completed an eleven year goal of playing golf in all 50 states by playing in Alaska last week. They accomplished the feat despite the bad news that Mr. Lurix was diagnosed with cancer in June. They had already planned the trip to Alaska before they found out the news. Determined to not let that stand in the way they successfully completed the round of golf on September 3rd at Anchorage Golf Course under sunny skies. The couple made it a point to not only play all 50 but they had…
It is with great sadness that Anderson Township announces the unexpected passing of Anderson Firefighter/Paramedic Kevin Ollier this morning. Kevin joined the township in February 2001, and served the Anderson Township community faithfully as a firefighter/paramedic for the Anderson Township Fire and Rescue Department. Before coming to Anderson Township, Kevin served as a firefighter/paramedic with the Union Township Fire Department, starting part time in 1990 and working fulltime there starting in 1992. Additionally, he worked at UC Mobile Care from 1994-2012. Besides his job with Anderson Township, Kevin was also employed as a nurse at University Hospital. Kevin, a Union Township…
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Whether the finished surface is distressed, natural, resawn, band-sawn, handscaped, wirebrushed, or fumed, the white oak boards in the Americana Hardwood line are traditionally milled to preserve knots and other quirks. They come standard at 6", or in random widths of 4" to 11". FSC-certified wood available upon request. archsystems.com
Finishes and Surfaces
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A new liquid blowing agent will help take the equivalent of 400,000 cars off the road,...
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County Court of Victoria - 250 William Street, Melbourne Victoria, 3000
County Court of Victoria - 250 William Street, Melbourne Victoria, 3000
Welcome to aGov
After Hours Contact
For all urgent applications after the Court has risen for the day or during any vacation, please contact the Associate to the Duty Judge on 0419 384 312. No general information or advice can be provided by calling this number.
The County Court is an intermediate court in the Victorian Court hierarchy. The Court has a civil and criminal jurisdiction and can hear all matters except Murder, Manslaughter and Treason cases.
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Stock Report: BOK Financial Corporation (BOKF) Report Updated: Nov 24, 2014 | Print This Page
Report Features:
Stock Analysis
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BOK Financial Corporation© quotemedia
Company Profile
BOK Financial Corporation, a financial holding company, offers a range of financial products and services in Oklahoma, Texas, New Mexico, Northwest Arkansas, Colorado, Arizona, and Kansas/Missouri. It operates in three segments: Commercial Banking, Consumer Banking, and Wealth Management. The Commercial Banking segment offers lending, treasury, and cash management services; and customer risk management products to small businesses, middle market, and larger commercial customers, as well as includes TransFund electronic funds transfer network. The Consumer Banking segment engages in retail lending and deposit services, and mortgage banking activities. The Wealth Management segment provides fiduciary, brokerage and trading, private bank, and investment advisory services, as well as originates loans for high net worth clients. BOK Financial Corporation also provides automated teller machine (ATM), Internet banking, and mobile banking services. As of December 31, 2011, the company operated 212 consumer banking locations, including branch banking locations and mortgage lending offices; and 1,912 TransFund ATM locations. BOK Financial Corporation was founded in 1910 and is headquartered in Tulsa, Oklahoma.
Recent News: BOK Financial Corporation
|2014-11-18 08:32:03
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|2014-11-13 00:00:00
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|2014-11-02 04:36:23
|Dividend Champions For November 2014
|2014-10-31 00:00:00
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Only buy this if you have oily skin. I have dry skin and so after the 2nd use, it made my skin feel very rough, and it was covered in dry skin mostly around my jaw line, and nose. i can't make this go away without practically soaking my face in lotion. But it did dry up a small spot I had.
I have been using this product for the past 3 weeks.I usually break out around my jaw line sometimes on my chin. I do get a little oily on my T-zone but I am from the south where there is a lot of humidity. This product didn't really help with that as much as I thought it might but it did seem to help a little bit. It didn't cause any initial break out like most expect when you start using acne cleansers and it didn't cause me to dry out. It actually started clearing my skin on day 2. It cleared up my skin about 85 percent. I have switched to using it only in the morning and using Clinique Acne Solutions Face Cleanser at night. I would recommend it for any skin type.
I like this cleanser because of the tingling effect it leaves. I love anything with menthol/eucalyptus. It makes my face feel clean and refreshed. However, it is drying because of the menthol. I have noticed my face clearing up for the 2 weeks I have been using it. I wouldn't recommend using every day because of the drying effect. I will repurchase!
When I first picked up this product, I really enjoyed it. It got rid of my few acne spots and kept new marks at bay. I kind of got to using it religiously though, by that I mean every time I washed my face I used it, and it dried my skin out like no other. I am so upset as this is a great product for clearing up acne marks. I would suggest using this only if you are EXTREMELY oily, which very few people are extremely oily. Or I suggest using it only a couple of times a week or when breakouts start. Then quit. The most important thing to know about this product is that it contains menthol, which I didn't realize before. Menthol is HORRIBLE for skin as it does dry it out. So be careful.
I LOVE LOVE LOVE this product! This does wonders on my skin! I have combination skin and when I used to have terrible acne, I hopped from one product to another looking for the right one. If I stuck to one for a long amount of time, the product would give me discoloration and dry patches. Alsothe ice feel usually went away after a couple months. However this does the job without severely drying my skin! air you feel it is drying you out a tad bit, just use a really good moisturizer or night cream (I use nivea! Inexpensive and effective!) I love the feel of the ice blemish fighter launch and its so cheap too!
More reviews by CreamPuffification
Good cleanser, tried it during break out season. Though it is a bit strong for dry skin people, it strips more oil than I would of like, than again, I should of being using a cream cleanser. It does clear up blemish a bit, not a miracle worker but will do. I loved the tingling feeling and the minty smell but the methanol is the ingredient that drys the skin out. I think it is not a good ingredient for the skin, but a lot of ingredient is, oh and the alcohol content is too high too.
This product is great i bought it in June a week before i headed of to camp(i was hoping my acne would clear up before the summer started) and after 2 DAYS my acne had almost all cleared up and after a week there was no more redness and i had about 1 small pimple. It also minimizes your blackheads. I dont have acne all over my face just in the T-zone and i swear this is amazing probably one of the best i have ever tried
I really love this product. It's the only thing that got rid of my blackheads on my cheek. It's incredibly drying so you have use a facial moisturizer with it or you will break out. the good outweighs the bad though, because my face is pimple free.
The first week of using this product, my skin felt great. It was smooth, blemish free, and my pores appeared much smaller. However, after routinely using it for the next few weeks, my extremely oily skin began to dry, and dry so bad that my skin was peeling off my entire face. No matter how much moisturizer I used I could NOT get rid of the dryness. All I have to say is, if this product dries out OILY skin so much that it peels, I can't imagine what it would do on any other skin type...
Amazing cleanser! I find Biore has the best Cleansers out there in the market.
Super affordable, extremely gentle cleanser get's my face squeaky clean with NO adverse reaction from it ever.


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Erm, wow, this is a weird one. I can't really find any information on this, not surprising really as Proxy Server 2.0 is increadibly old now and to be honest will have more holes than is worth it. With Server 2003 you should be looking at ISA server at least! In fact, the end of life for PS 2.0 was December 2004, so it is not supported in any way shape or form any more.
[ame=http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Microsoft_Internet_Security_and_Acceleration_Serve r]Microsoft Internet Security and Acceleration Server - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia[/ame]