text:
Uncertainties in climate change projections and regional downscaling: implications for water resources management
ABSTRACT Climate change is expected to have a large impact on water resources worldwide. A major problem in assessing the potential impact of a changing climate on these resources is the difference in spatial scale between available climate change projections and water resources management. Regional climate models (RCMs) are often used for the spatial disaggregation of the outputs of global circulation models. However, RCMs are time-intensive to run and typically only a small number of model runs is available for a certain region of interest. This paper investigates the value of the improved representation of local climate processes by a regional climate model for water resources management in the tropical Andes of Ecuador. This region has a complex hydrology and its water resources are under pressure. Compared to the IPCC AR4 model ensemble, the regional climate model PRECIS does indeed capture local gradients better than global models, but locally the model is prone to large discrepancies between observed and modelled precipitation. It is concluded that a further increase in resolution is necessary to represent local gradients properly. Furthermore, to assess the uncertainty in downscaling, an ensemble of regional climate models should be implemented. Finally, translating the climate variables to streamflow using a hydrological model constitutes a smaller but not negligible source of uncertainty.
- [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
ABSTRACT: The potential impacts of climate change on potatoes cropping in the Peruvian highlands (Altiplano) is assessed using climate projections for 2071–2100, obtained from the HadRM3P regional atmospheric model of the Hadley Centre. The atmospheric model is run under two different special report on emission scenarios: high CO2 concentration (A2) and moderate CO2 concentration (B2) for four locations situated in the surroundings of Lake Titicaca. The two main varieties of potato cultivated in the area are studied: the Andean potato (Solanum tuberosum) and the bitter potato (Solanum juzepczukii). A simple process-oriented model is used to quantify the climatic impacts on crops cycles and yields by combining the effects of temperature on phenology, of radiation and CO2 on maximum yield and of water balance on yield deficit. In future climates, air temperature systematically increases, precipitation tends to increase at the beginning of the rainy season and slightly decreases during the rest of the season. The direct effects of these climatic changes are earlier planting dates, less planting failures and shorter crop cycles in all the four locations and for both scenarios. Consequently, the harvesting dates occur systematically earlier: roughly in January for the Andean potato instead of March in the current situation and in February for the bitter potato instead of April. Overall, yield deficits will be higher under climate change than in the current climate. There will be a strong negative impact on yields for S. tuberosum (stronger under A2 scenario than under B2); the impact on S. juzepczukii yields, however, appears to be relatively mixed and not so negative.Theoretical and Applied Climatology 112(3-4). · 1.76 Impact Factor
Article: Water Scarcity in the Andes: A Comparison of Local Perceptions and Observed Climate, Land Use and Socioeconomic Changes[Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
ABSTRACT: In the Andean region of South America, understanding communities' water perceptions is particularly important for water management as many rural communities must decide by themselves if and how they will protect their micro-watersheds and distribute their water. In this study we examine how Water User Associations in the Eastern Andes of Colombia perceive water scarcity and the relationship between this perception and observed climate, land use, and demographic changes. Results demonstrate a complex relationship between perceptions and observed changes. On the one hand, observed changes in land cover match perceptions of deforestation as the primary cause of increasing water scarcity. On the other hand, perceptions of climate driven changes in water availability are not reflected in observed precipitation data. Furthermore, water scarcity was perceived in regions where seasonal rainfall variability is higher but not in regions where annual rainfall is lower. We discuss how these results contribute to our understanding of adaptation to climate change and the implications of possible mismatches between environmental changes and local perceptions.Human Ecology 01/2013; · 1.63 Impact Factor
Article: Climate changes of hydrometeorological and hydrological extremes in the Paute basin, Ecuadorean Andes[Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
ABSTRACT: Investigation was made on the climate change signal for hydrometeorological and hydrological variables along the Paute River basin, in the southern Ecuador Andes. An adjusted quantile perturbation approach was used for climate downscaling, and the impact of climate change on runoff was studied for two nested catchments within the basin. The analysis was done making use of long daily series of seven representative rainfall and temperature sites along the study area and considering climate change signals of global and regional climate models for IPCC SRES scenarios A1B, A2 and B1. The determination of runoff was carried out using a lumped conceptual rainfall–runoff model. The study found that the range of changes in temperature is homogeneous for almost the entire region with an average annual increase of approximately +2.0 �C. However, the warmest periods of the year show lower changes than the colder periods. For rainfall, downscaled results project increases in the mean annual rainfall depth and the extreme daily rainfall intensities along the basin for all sites and all scenarios. Higher changes in extreme rainfall intensities are for the wetter region. These lead to changes in catchment runoff flows, with increasing high peak flows and decreasing low peak flows. The changes in high peak flows are related to the changes in rainfall extremes, whereas the decreases in the low peak flows are due to the increase in temperature and potential evapotranspiration together with the reduction in the number of wet days.Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 02/2014; 18:631-348. · 3.59 Impact Factor
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Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1247–1258, 2010
© Author(s) 2010. CC Attribution 3.0 License.
Hydrology and
Earth System
Uncertainties in climate change projections and regional
downscaling in the tropical Andes: implications for water
resources management
W. Buytaert1, M. Vuille2, A. Dewulf3, R. Urrutia4, A. Karmalkar5, and R. C´ elleri6
1Imperial College London, Civil and Environmental Engineering, London, UK
2Univ. at Albany, State Univ. of New York, Dept. of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, Albany, USA
3Wageningen Univ., Public Administration and Policy Group, Wageningen, The Netherlands
4Univ. Austral de Chile, Laboratorio de dendrocronolog´ ıa, Valdivia, Chile
5Univ. of Massachusetts Amherst, Climate System Research Center, Amherst, USA
6Univ. de Cuenca, Centro para el An´ alisis de Sistemas Naturales, Cuenca, Ecuador
Received: 27 February 2010 – Published in Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.: 11 March 2010
Revised: 25 June 2010 – Accepted: 28 June 2010 – Published: 15 July 2010
Abstract. Climate change is expected to have a large im-
pact on water resources worldwide. A major problem in as-
sessing the potential impact of a changing climate on these
resources is the difference in spatial scale between available
Regional climate models (RCMs) are often used for the spa-
tial disaggregation of the outputs of global circulation mod-
els. However, RCMs are time-intensive to run and typically
only a small number of model runs is available for a cer-
tain region of interest. This paper investigates the value of
the improved representation of local climate processes by
a regional climate model for water resources management
in the tropical Andes of Ecuador. This region has a com-
plex hydrology and its water resources are under pressure.
Compared to the IPCC AR4 model ensemble, the regional
climate model PRECIS does indeed capture local gradients
better than global models, but locally the model is prone to
large discrepancies between observed and modelled precip-
itation. It is concluded that a further increase in resolution
is necessary to represent local gradients properly. Further-
more, to assess the uncertainty in downscaling, an ensemble
of regional climate models should be implemented. Finally,
translating the climate variables to streamflow using a hydro-
logical model constitutes a smaller but not negligible source
of uncertainty.
Correspondence to: W. Buytaert
1.1Climate downscaling in mountain environments
It is expected that global climate change will have a strong
impact on water resources in many regions of the world
(Bates et al., 2008). Higher temperatures are likely to in-
crease evapotranspiration and therefore the atmospheric wa-
ter vapour content. This may result in changes in large-scale
precipitation patterns and the frequency of extreme events.
The changes in evapotranspiration and the timing and inten-
sity of precipitation are expected to strongly affect various
types of water resources, particularly soil moisture, stream-
flow, and groundwater storage. Understanding the implica-
tions of climate change on these hydrological processes is of
utmost importance for long-term and sustainable water re-
sources planning.
The output of General Circulation Models (GCMs) is
usually combined with hydrological models to translate the
changes in atmospheric diagnostics to variables that are of
direct relevance for water resources management, such as
streamflow in individual catchments.
pling of GCMs with hydrological models is challenging for
various reasons. A main problem is the difference in spa-
tial scale between global climate projections and water re-
sources management. Due to limitations in data and com-
puting power, GCMs are typically run on grid cells with a
size of several 100km. As such, they smooth out local gra-
dients in precipitation and temperature. However, for many
However, the cou-
Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union.
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1248W. Buytaert et al.: Downscaling for water resources management
local hydrological processes these gradients are very impor-
tant, and therefore further downscaling of climate projections
is necessary (Buytaert et al., 2009).
The need for downscaling is particularly urgent for moun-
tainous regions. Mountain regions provide important envi-
ronmental services, such as water supply for adjacent, drier
lowlands (Viviroli et al., 2010), but they are also particularly
fragile to environmental change. Many of the meteorologi-
cal, hydrological and biological processes in mountain areas
are characterised by strong spatial gradients that can be eas-
ily perturbed.
At the same time, climate models predict a stronger ef-
fect of global warming in mountain regions compared to
lowlands, due to a decreasing lapse rate (Still et al., 1999;
Bradleyetal.,2006;UrrutiaandVuille,2009). Manyofthem
are also expected to experience longer or stronger dry sea-
sons (Beniston, 2003). The combination of a fragile ecosys-
tem and an amplified climate change illustrates the poten-
tially dramatic effect of global change on mountain areas and
their importance for society. In these regions, the projections
of GCMs are of limited value, and appropriate downscaling
techniques should be applied to provide climate change in-
formation needed to drive hydrological models
Although many methods for disaggregation of large scale
climate projections have emerged in the scientific literature
(for an overview see e.g., Maraun et al., 2010), very few of
these methods have been implemented in complex regions
such as tropical mountain areas. The application of statis-
tical downscaling methods is hindered by the lack of long-
term precipitation records needed to fit statistical models of
precipitation occurrence and amount. Additionally, the den-
sity of rain gauges is generally low. In the Ecuadorian An-
des, for instance, the average density of rain gauges above
2500m altitude is around 1 per 220km2. This is just within
the recommended minimum densities of non-recording pre-
cipitation stations (100–250km2per raingauge, World Me-
teorological Organisation, 1995), but insufficient to capture
local gradients (Buytaert et al., 2006b; C´ elleri et al., 2007).
Additionally, the location of these rain gauges is strongly bi-
ased towards the lower, more densely populated areas. In
the upper Andean wet- and grasslands which constitute the
major water supply areas, rain gauge density is much lower.
The implementation of regional climate models (RCMs)
constitutes an alternative to statistical downscaling methods.
These models operate at a typical resolution of 50km or
lower, and can capture the spatiotemporal variability of cli-
mate in much greater detail than GCMs. By providing more
realistic simulations of present and future climate change in
the Andes compared to coarser resolution GCMs, the RCMs
can help providing better understanding of the impact these
changes will have on Andean ecosystems and streamflow.
RCMs are based on the same model physics as the driving
GCM and therefore do not require a dense observational net-
work as it is needed for statistical downscaling. However,
carefulmodelvalidation withobservationaldatais still anec-
essary prerequisite to ensure that the RCMs accurately por-
tray present-day spatiotemporal climate variability, in partic-
ular along mountain ranges such as the Andes, where orog-
raphy strongly affects seasonal distributions of precipitation.
RCMs have been used successfully for climate change stud-
ies over South America (e.g., Marengo et al., 2009; Soares
and Marengo, 2009), but their application over the Andes is
still in its early stages (Urrutia and Vuille, 2009). A ma-
jor drawback of RCMs is that they are computationally ex-
pensive and rather complex to implement. Therefore, they
are typically not run using the entire range of available AR4
models but simulations are based on just one or two driving
GCMs. This significantly complicates uncertainty assess-
ments. Model structural deficiencies, and errors in the forc-
ing data and parameterization can also propagate from the
driving GCM to the RCM and increase uncertainties. This
makes it imperative to assess the value of RCMs for impact
assessment on a case by case basis.
climate model PRECIS and regional climate models in gen-
eral for water resources management in the Ecuadorian An-
des. PRECIS was previously implemented for tropical South
America by Urrutia and Vuille (2009). Here we evaluate the
control simulation carried out by PRECIS and compare its
performance with the models included in the IPCC Third
and Fourth Assessment Report (TAR and AR4, IPCC, 2001,
2007). In a second part of the study, the GCM results are
in future discharge predictions, and to evaluate the relative
to the hydrological model.
2Climate change in the tropical Andes
The concern regarding water resources in the Andes is re-
flective of the rapidly changing climate throughout the re-
gion. This is most notable in observations of near-surface
temperature, which show an increase of 0.7◦C over the past
seven decades (1939–2006, Vuille et al., 2008). Of the last
20 years only two (1996 and 1999) were below the long term
(1961–1990) average. Analyses of changes in freezing level
height (FLH) over the American Cordillera and the Andes,
based on the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data show an increase
of 73m between 1948 and 2000 and of 53m between 1958
and 2000, a period for which the data are considered more
reliable (Diaz et al., 2003). The notion that warming will be
exacerbated at the highest elevations as suggested by GCM
results is hard to verify due to the lack of long and reli-
able observational records. However, recent reports from the
Andes of Peru, which show that daily maximum tempera-
tures now rise well above the freezing temperature between
October and May even at elevations as high as 5680m cer-
tainly seem to support this assumption (Bradley et al., 2009).
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W. Buytaert et al.: Downscaling for water resources management1249
Such changes in temperature are sufficient to cause signifi-
cant shifts in the ranges of native species and water availabil-
Changes in precipitation over the 20th century have been
less notable but Vuille et al. (2003) found a tendency for in-
creased precipitation north of 11◦S, in Ecuador, while in
southern Peru and along the Peru/Bolivia border most sta-
tions indicate a precipitation decrease. These results were
later confirmed by Haylock et al. (2006), who also found
a change toward wetter conditions in Ecuador and northern
Peru, and a decrease in southern Peru. Outgoing longwave
radiation (OLR), which is indicative of convective activity
and precipitation, shows a significant decrease over the tropi-
calAndesinaustralsummer(Vuilleetal.,2003,2008). Inthe
outer tropics (south of 10◦S) the trend is reversed, featuring
an increase in OLR. While these trends are weak and largely
insignificant, they are consistent with projected changes in
precipitation for the end of the 21st century by the IPCC AR4
model ensemble (Vera et al., 2006).
3 Methods
3.1 Study region
The PRECIS model is evaluated over the Ecuadorian An-
des. In Ecuador, the Andes consists of two parallel, north-
south oriented mountain ranges, separated by the so-called
Interandean Valley. This valley is the economic backbone
of the country.It hosts major cities such as the capital
Quito (around 2 million inhabitants) in the north, and Cuenca
(around 500000 inhabitants) further south. Both mountain
rangesreachanaltitudeoftypically4000m, withsomepeaks
exceeding 6000m.
The climate in the Ecuadorian Andes is governed by vari-
ous large-scale climate processes (Vuille et al., 2000). In the
south-west, the Pacific Humboldt current provides cool and
dry air masses, which lead to a semi-arid climate. Further
north along the Pacific coast, a tropical humid climate is in-
duced by the warm and moist air masses advected from the
equatorial Pacific. The eastern slopes of the Andes are peren-
nially wet under the influence of the Amazon basin. Finally,
the interandean valley is typically drier than the eastern side
since most of the air masses have lost their humidity during
the orographic uplift on the outer slopes of the Andes. Over-
all, precipitation patterns are highly variable, ranging from
over 3000mm on the outer Amazonian slopes to less than
500mm in the interandean valley and the south-west Pacific
slopes. On interannual time scales precipitation and temper-
ature variability is quite large and dominated primarily by
tropical Pacific SST, with El Ni˜ no events leading to warmer
and drier conditions in most of the Ecuadorian Andes, except
for the SW part, while opposite conditions tend to prevail
during periods of La Ni˜ na (Vuille et al., 2000; Francou et al.,
Fig. 1. Location of the Paute river basin and the Tomebamba sub-
basin (delimited in grey). ?=Discharge station; •=Rain gauges.
The grid corresponds to the PRECIS pixels.
The study is conducted at two scales. The global and re-
gional climate models are evaluated on a grid that covers
Ecuador (75.2–81.1◦E, 1.5◦N–5◦S). This scale allows for
analysing the performance of the climate models over the
three major climate regions: the Amazon basin, the Andes
and the Pacific coast. The hydrological analysis focuses on
the Tomebamba river basin (1250km2) in the south Ecuado-
rian Andes. The Tomebamba is a subbasin of the Paute river
basin (around 6500km2, Fig. 1), which hosts the largest hy-
dropower dam in the country (Daniel Palacios, 1075MW). A
second plant was recently opened (Mazar, February 2010).
When fully functional, the system can supply up to a 50%
of the country energy needs. Additionally, the Tomebamba
river is a major water supplier for the city of Cuenca. As a
result, the catchment plays a key role in the socio-economic
development of the region and there is an urgent need for
adequate climate change adaptation strategies.
3.2.1Climate modelling
The GCM ensembles projections for 2070–2099 of TAR and
AR4 (IPCC, 2001, 2007) were obtained from the IPCC data
repository. The PRECIS model was implemented with the
boundary conditions of HadAM3p for the A2 and B2 emis-
sion scenarios at a resolution of 50km. PRECIS is a limited-
area, regional climate model, based on the third generation
Hadley Centre RCM (HadRM3) (Jones et al., 2004). A num-
gional 21st century climate change assessments over Central
and South America (Garreaud and Falvey, 2009; Karmalkar
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1250 W. Buytaert et al.: Downscaling for water resources management
et al., 2008; Marengo et al., 2009; Soares and Marengo,
2009; Urrutia and Vuille, 2009).
The delta method (Fowler et al., 2007) was used to gen-
erate time series of future precipitation for the hydrological
modelling. In this method, differences between the control
and future GCM simulations are applied to historical obser-
vations by simple scaling. The delta method was used taking
into account seasonality in the change factors, i.e., a scaling
factor was calculated for each month of the year.
The delta method makes strong assumptions about the na-
tureofthechanges, includingalackofchangeinthevariabil-
ity and spatial patterns of climate. However, the lack of data
and the high variability of the climate system in the region
complicate the use of more complex downscaling models.
The future potential evapotranspiration regime was recal-
culated with the adjusted Thornthwaite relation after adapt-
ing the average monthly temperature for future conditions.
This method does not take into account the impacts of
changes in radiation and humidity on the potential evapo-
transpiration. However, not all GCMs provide projections
for these variables, which would have limited the number of
GCMs in the ensemble. We expect that this approach under-
estimates slightly the range of future streamflow estimates,
as models predicting a drier (wetter) future will have a lower
(higher) cloud cover and therefore a higher (lower) evapo-
transpiration. However, it does not affect the conclusions of
his paper. For further discussion of the impact of climate
change on evapotranspiration and different calculation meth-
ods we refer to Kingston et al. (2009).
3.2.2 Hydrological modelling
The Tomebamba basin has a complex hydrology. The up-
per part of the basin is covered with tropical alpine wet-
lands, covering metamorphic bedrock of low permeability.
In the lower parts of the catchment, quaternary deposits with
high permeability give rise to ground water aquifers that are
thought to contribute significantly to the hydrological re-
sponse. Although the major hydrological processes in the
catchment are reasonably well understood, very little quan-
titative information is available. Therefore, a detailed repre-
sentation of these processes in a hydrological model is im-
possible in view of the available data, and a parsimonious
modelling approach was adopted instead.
The model takes precipitation and potential evapotranspi-
ration time series as input, and produces runoff time series
in two steps (Beven, 2001).
effective precipitation (i.e. the part of precipitatation that
makes it to streamflow). Second, a routing module repre-
senting the delay between precipitation and discharge. In
the study region, actual evapotranspiration may be signif-
icantly lower than potential evapotranspiration due to soil
moisture deficits. Both potential evapotranspiration and soil
First, a loss module calcu-
which may change in future scenarios. These changes are ac-
counted for by applying the catchment moisture deficit store
of Croke and Jakeman (2004) as a loss module.
For the routing module, two parallel linear stores, for re-
spectively a quick and slow flow component, were imple-
mented (Buytaert et al., 2004; Chapman, 2003; Beven, 2001,
p.106). More complex solutions were tested, including au-
toregression functions and multiple combinations of linear
stores, but these configurations did not improve the model
performance, while adding additional parameters. The final
model has 4 parameters and needs 2 initialisation values.
Potential evapotranspiration was calculated by means of
the FAO-Penman Monteith method (Allen et al., 1998), us-
ing data from four nearby meteorological stations. To ac-
count for altitudinal gradients, the evapotranspiration data
were interpolated using a digital elevation map at 50m res-
olution.For the interpolation, the Thornthwaite relation
between temperature and potential evapotranspiration was
combined with a lapse rate obtained from 24 local tempera-
ture stations (−0.54◦C 100m−1) (Timbe, 2004). As the time
series for calculating evapotranspiration do not cover the en-
tire modelling region, a monthly climatology was used. For
simple hydrological models research has shown that this is
generally sufficient (Oudin et al., 2005)
Areal averages of precipitation were obtained from 13 rain
gauges (C´ elleri et al., 2007) using Thiessen interpolation.
Some gaps in the rain gauge data were filled using extrap-
olation from nearby stations using linear regression. Finally,
the model was run with a daily timestep for the period from
1978 to 1991, including a one year spin-up period.
3.2.3Hydrological model calibration and uncertainty
Although a full time series of precipitation data is available,
daily discharge data availability for the Tomebamba basin for
the study region is only 81%. Therefore the model was run
continuously from 1978 to 1991, but only the simulated dis-
charges that have a corresponding observed discharge were
used for model calibration. The hydrological model was cal-
ibrated by comparing the simulated and observed discharge
directly using the Nash Sutcliffe efficiency and absolute bias.
Since our analysis focuses on water resources, the observed
and simulated discharge time series were summarised in flow
duration curves and average monthly discharge.
A variation of the Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty
Estimation method (GLUE, Beven and Binley, 1992) was
used for the uncertainty analysis. Using Monte Carlo sam-
pling from uniform prior parameter distributions, 105pa-
rameter sets were generated and evaluated using the Nash-
Sutcliffe efficiency.Behavioural parameter sets were se-
lected based on a Nash-Sutcliffe threshold, such that the pre-
diction envelope for the flow duration curves and the average
monthly discharge bracket the observed flow duration curve
and monthly discharge entirely.
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W. Buytaert et al.: Downscaling for water resources management1251
Fig. 2. Average, range and consistency of the GCM simulations of yearly temperature (T) and precipitation (P) in the Ecuadorian An-
des. A and E: range of the projections for the twentieth century run (20C3M) during 1961–1990; B and F: average and C and G: range
of the projected anomalies for the A1B emission scenario (in % for P,◦C for T) from 20C3M to the scenario period 2070–2099; D and
H: regions where more than 75% of the models agree on the direction of the change (in grey). The models used in the GCM ensem-
ble are: BCCR-BCM2, CCCMA-CGCM3.1-T47, CCCMA-CGCM3.1-T63, CNRM-CM3, CONS-ECHO-G, CSIRO-MK3, GFDL-CM2,
EH, NCAR-CCSM3, NIES-MIROC3.2-HI, NIES-MIROC3.2-MED, UKMO-HADCM3, UKMO-HADGEM1. All models were rescaled to
a common resolution of 0.1◦before averaging. The 1000m contour line of the Ecuadorian Andes is indicated in grey.
The hydrological model was run with the behavioural pa-
rameter sets for the observed period and the future projec-
tions of the model ensemble. Finally, 90% prediction lim-
its were calculated for the flow duration curves and average
monthly discharge for the past and future periods.
4 Results and discussion
Figure 2 shows the average and the range of the pro-
jected anomalies in annual precipitation and temperature for
Ecuador for the A1B emission scenario and the period 2070–
2099. Using the average of the entire IPCC ensemble, an in-
crease in precipitation of around 7.5–10% is expected over
the Ecuadorian Andes (Fig. 2b), together with a temperature
increase of around 3◦C (Fig. 2f).
However, the variation between model projections is con-
siderable. The total disagreement in the magnitude of the
precipitation anomalies is often higher than 50% of annual
rainfall (Fig. 2c), while temperature projections range from
around 1.5 to 4◦C (Fig. 2f). In the plots of the projection
ranges and model agreement (Fig. 2c and d), the Andes do
not stand out as a region with a particularly high model un-
certainty. However, in the twentieth century runs for precip-
itation (Fig. 2a), the Andes region and its surroundings are
visible as a region with a higher variation in model simula-
tions compared to the surrounding areas (Pacific Ocean and
Amazon basin).
The disagreement among the models in representing the
local climate patterns over the Andes may have several un-
derlying causes, but it is likely that differences in resolu-
tion are a major factor. Indeed, due to their coarse resolu-
properly, thus neglecting locally important processes such as
orographic precipitation and localised convective events. A
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1252W. Buytaert et al.: Downscaling for water resources management
Fig. 3. Overview of the projected anomalies in yearly tempera-
ture and relative precipitation for the study area according to cli-
mate change assessment report and emission scenario for the period
2070–2099. TAR=IPCC Third Assessment Report (IPCC, 2001);
AR4=IPCC Assessment Report 4 (IPCC, 2007); A1B, A2, B1 and
B2 refer to the emission scenarios of the IPCC Special Report on
Emissions Scenarios (IPCC, 2001). The larger triangles represent
the PRECIS projections.
detailed comparison of the parameterisation schemes of all
GCMs would be necessary to understand the mechanisms
behind this divergence, which is beyond the scope of this
study. However, the fact that GCMs disagree in the represen-
tation of current climate poses questions about the reliability
of projected anomalies.
At local scale and taking into account other emission sce-
narios, the variability in projections increases dramatically.
For the Tomebamba catchment, projections for the 2070–
2099 period range between a −25% and 45% change in
precipitation, and a temperature increase of 1.2 to 4.8◦C
(Fig. 3). Rejecting or reducing the weight of certain emis-
sion scenarios or models may be one option to reduce these
climate envelopes, but such decisions are subjective and con-
troversial (e.g., Allen and Ingram, 2002; Stainforth et al.,
2007b). Alternatively, especially for mountainous regions,
downscaling can be explored as a potential pathway to re-
duce uncertainty.
4.2 Evaluation of regional downscaling
This section evaluates the use of PRECIS to improve GCM
projections over the Andes. Simulations are selected for the
1961–1990 control run, since they can be evaluated with ob-
servational data. It should be noted that a better simulation
during the control run does not necessarily indicate a better
simulation in future conditions (Stainforth et al., 2007a). We
focus on the performance of PRECIS in downscaling pre-
cipitation, which is the most important variable for water re-
sources management.
The improved resolution of PRECIS compared to
HadAM3p results in a much more complex pattern of current
and future precipitation fields (Fig. 4). However, a compar-
ison with the 10min. observed climatology of New et al.
(2000) reveals that this does not necessarily result in im-
proved simulations (Fig. 5).
In general (Fig. 5a), PRECIS underestimates precipita-
tion along the lower Amazonian slopes of the Andes, while
precipitation is overestimated at the higher elevations of the
Amazonian side of the Andes, consistent with the model val-
idation in Urrutia and Vuille (2009).
The observed displacement between observed and mod-
elled precipitation suggests that PRECIS is incapable of fully
capturing the extreme gradient in orographic precipitation
that exists along the eastern slope of the Ecuadorian Andes.
The overestimation of precipitation along the eastern Andean
slope is a problem common to all RCMs and related to ex-
cessive orographic uplift due to strong easterly winds (e.g.,
da Rocha et al., 2009; Insel et al., 2010; Urrutia and Vuille,
2009). It should be kept in mind, however, that the gridded
observational precipitation products such as the climatology
data have significant uncertainties arising from space-time
gaps in the observational records, instrumentation and cali-
bration problems, and sampling inadequacies. This problem
is more serious for mountainous regions where the station
density is low and interpolation procedures introduce errors
(New et al., 1999).
Even if the higher resolution of RCMs may not be suffi-
cient to provide correct localised predictions, a better repre-
sentation of climate patterns may result in an improved sim-
ulation at a regional scale. However, the scale at which such
aggregation pays off is strongly dependent on the local cli-
mate conditions. Figure 5 investigates in more detail the im-
pact of the scale of aggregation on the accuracy of climate
projections for both PRECIS and HadAM3p. The control run
of PRECIS and HadAM3p are compared with the observed
climatology at three levels of aggregation: the climatology
resolution (0.167◦), the resolution of PRECIS (0.5◦) and the
resolution of HadAM3p (1.25 by 1.875◦) (Fig. 5).
At HadAM3p resolution (Fig. 5c and f) reveals that PRE-
CIS has some potential for improving precipitation simu-
lations slightly, particularly over the Amazon basin where
HadAM3p consistently underestimates precipitation. A sim-
ilar pattern is observed at PRECIS resolution (Fig. 5b and
e), although local gradients over the slopes of the Andes
play a more pronounced role. This is particularly the case
overtheAmazonianslopeofcentralEcuador, wherePRECIS
overshoots observed precipitation dramatically, thus locally
yielding worse results than HadAM3p. Finally, at higher
resolution (Fig. 5a and d) the effect is even more pronounced.
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W. Buytaert et al.: Downscaling for water resources management 1253
Fig. 4. A and B: Modelled average annual precipitation for the control run and future A2 scenario of HadAM3p (mm/day). C: Relative
anomalies in precipitation between the 1961–1990 control run and the 2070–2099 A2 scenario for HadAM3p (%). D–F: idem for PRECIS.
The 1000m contour line of the Ecuadorian Andes is indicated in grey.
Both PRECIS and HadAM3p are unable to simulate oro-
graphic precipitation along both Andean slopes, with the
eastern slope of the central Ecuadorian Andes being partic-
ularly problematic. This is indeed a region dominated by
strong orographic precipitation.
The results show that resolving high-resolution precipita-
tion gradients in climate models is difficult and potentially
risky. Misalignments between simulated and the observed at-
mospheric processes may result in very poor performance of
the regional climate model in certain locations. Such errors
are averaged out over larger regions, but may be problem-
atic for local impact assessment where the exact location of
precipitation is important.
4.3Downscaling in a wider uncertainty context
Uncertainty in the prediction of future hydrology arises from
multiple sources: the GCM climate projections, the down-
scaling model and the hydrologic model. The route towards
lower uncertainty requires an assessment of each. Therefore,
we assessed the combined uncertainty in predicting future
hydrological conditions in the Tomebamba basin, Ecuador.
Figure 6 shows the 90% uncertainty bounds of predicting
the flow duration curve and seasonal variability of river dis-
charge under future climate conditions. This analysis focuses
on the A1B scenario, to facilitate comparison with similar ef-
forts elsewhere. The largest share of the uncertainty in future
projections (50.8% for the flow duration curves and 79.2%
for the seasonality) results from the climate model ensemble.
A first approach to decrease this uncertainty would be to
improve the GCMs themselves. However, this study shows
that a resolution of 50km, which is the resolution at which
PRECIS is implemented, appears to be insufficient to cap-
ture the high spatial gradients of precipitation processes in
the Andes.Hence, it is unlikely that global models can
be sufficiently improved in the near future, and run at res-
olutions high enough to provide good predictions in these
complex environments. Alternatively, a nested approach in
which the GCMs are further downscaled with either statis-
tical or dynamical techniques can be pursued. Our evalua-
tion of PRECIS has shown that the use of dynamic models
is not without risk. Additionally, such models should be im-
plemented for all GCMs, in order to evaluate the uncertainty
envelope of the entire ensemble. This is a challenging task.
Another option is to use statistical methods, which are easier
to implement. This study used the rudimentary delta method,
which, apart from making very strong assumptions, requires
the use of highly uncertain precipitation projections from
the GCMs. More advanced statistical downscaling methods,
such as weather generators (Maraun et al., 2010) relate lo-
cal precipitation patterns directly to other climate variables
such as temperature and sea level pressure. As the latter vari-
ables tend to be simulated better by global models, such an
approach may reduce the uncertainty of local precipitation
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1254W. Buytaert et al.: Downscaling for water resources management
Fig. 5. Bias (%) of the PRECIS and HadAM3p control run for precipitation compared to the observed climatology at three different
resolutions. A and D: climatology resolution (0.167◦); B and E: PRECIS resolution (0.5◦); C and F: HadAM3p resolution (1.25–1.875◦).
Note that the actual averaging area of some PRECIS and HadAM3p grid cells is lower due to the unavailability of climatology data over the
ocean. The 1000m contour line of the Ecuadorian Andes is indicated in grey, and the Paute basin in black.
projections. However, the development and testing of such
downscaling models in tropical regions is in its infancy.
The significant contribution of the hydrological model it-
self to the total uncertainty highlights that apart from improv-
ing climate projections, there is also a need for an improved
hydrological understanding of the studied system. Previous
hydrological research in the area (see Buytaert et al., 2006a,
such as the functioning of local wetlands are still poorly un-
4.4Implications for water resources management
Looking at the total uncertainty (Fig. 6) the range of poten-
tial scenarios is very wide. The potential future conditions
bracket the current conditions entirely. Hence, at this mo-
ment no decisive conclusions can be drawn about the magni-
tude or the direction of change of the discharge regime un-
der future climate conditions. The question remains whether
such projections are useful for water resources management.
Water managers usually turn to scientists for updates on the
latest certainties. An important implication of these and sim-
ilar results (e.g., Dessai and Hulme, 2007) is that it might
be wiser to turn to scientists for updates on the range of
uncertainties for climate change impact questions. The re-
gional climate change projections do not provide reliable es-
timates of future precipitation patterns at a local scale, which
are needed to optimise water management strategies. They
provide information about the range of uncertainties and if
anything, the range of plausible precipitation scenarios only
broadens when climate change impacts are taken into ac-
count. While additional research can probably reduce the
range of plausible scenarios somewhat, important uncertain-
ties are unlikely to be eliminated in the foreseeable future.
Still, adaptation decisions need to be taken now.
So, when optimising water management based on fu-
ture precipitation projections that are riddled with uncer-
tainties, what is the relevance of these modelling efforts
for sustainable water management? Developments in cli-
mate adaptation and water management research present
a number of different approaches to uncertainties and de-
cision making. Adaptive water management (Pahl-Wostl,
2007) starts from the acceptance of irreducible uncertainties
about future (climatic) changes. Assuming future changes
and irreducible uncertainties about the direction and timing
of these changes, adaptive management approaches move
away from a "predict-and-control" paradigm, towards a more
adaptive approach, with continuous learning and flexibil-
ity as key aims. In this sense, infrastructural investments
with high sunk costs, irreversible decisions, or fixed man-
agement strategies prevent continuous learning and adjust-
ment. A more effective way of dealing with unpredictabil-
ity is to avoid control by creating the capacity to respond
effectively to changing and unknown conditions, through
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W. Buytaert et al.: Downscaling for water resources management 1255
Fig. 6. Uncertainty in the projections of climate change impacts on water resources. Left: flow duration curve; right: mean monthly discharge.
The black line is the observed curve, the grey area indicates the 90% uncertainty bounds of the hydrological model during calibration, the
red lines indicate the 90% prediction limits for the future scenario (A1B, 2070–2099), including hydrological model and GCM uncertainty.
developing strategies that are robust under the full range of
possible future scenarios, through diversification of strate-
gies or through strategies that can be flexibly applied when
needed (Brugnach et al., 2008). The call for robust strategies
can be complemented with a focus on the key vulnerabilities
of the water system and the services it provides, rather than
on the optimal strategy (Dessai et al., 2009). Evidence on
the range of plausible representations of future climate then
becomes highly instrumental for identifying and addressing
these vulnerabilities, in order to avoid that the water system
would fail to provide the critical minimum of services. A
related approach is the development of "no regret" interven-
tions, definedas strategiesthat yieldbenefits regardlessof fu-
ture trends in climate scenarios (Heltberg et al., 2009). Given
that climate is only one of the many uncertain processes that
influencewaterresourcesmanagement, "noregret"strategies
will favour measures that are beneficial for these other do-
mains as well.
These strategies are ideally the outcome of an integrated
approach involving scientists, resource managers and stake-
holders. In the Paute basin, such interactions have been on-
going for a long time. Two key ecosystems, Andean forests
and alpine wetlands, have been identified as excellent water
providers due to their high water storage and regulation ca-
pacity. Adaptation efforts have therefore focused on an im-
proved management and conservation of these ecosystems
(C´ elleri and Feyen, 2009). Similarly, erosion control and
restoration of degraded agricultural fields in the lower areas
of the Paute basin intend to lower the agricultural pressure on
water resource areas (Dercon et al., 2006).
5 Conclusions
This study is concerned with the usefulness of RCMs for
downscaling global climate projections for regional water
management in the Ecuadorian Andes. Global circulation
models project an increase in temperature (around 3◦C,
Fig. 2b) and precipitation (around 10%, Fig. 2f) over the
Ecuadorian Andes. The uncertainty in the projections, quan-
tified by the ensemble projection range, is similar to the adja-
cent Amazon and Pacific regions. However, the Andes stand
out as a region of high uncertainty during the twentieth cen-
tury run (20C3M, Fig. 2a), casting doubt over the reliability
of future projections.
The evaluation of the RCM PRECIS over the tropical An-
des gave mixed results (Fig. 5). Compared to HadAM3p,
which provided the boundary conditions of the PRECIS im-
plementation, PRECIS is able to simulate total precipitation
better over the Amazon basin. However, large errors in the
simulation of precipitation patterns appear over the Andes
when the model is compared to observational data.
cally, they can overshoot the error in the coarse resolution
HadAM3p model. The results show that at least for some
regions and scales of aggregation, regional climate models
such as PRECIS may be instrumental in improving the sim-
ulations of global climate models. However, the conditions
for such improvement should be very carefully analysed. For
local climate, RCMs may produce as inappropriate or worse
results compared with GCMs, especially when precipitation
is considered. For most other variables that are elevation de-
pendent (e.g., temperature), the better vertical resolution of
RCMs does, however, yield a significant improvement over
GCMs (Urrutia and Vuille, 2009). Biases in precipitation
projections at the regional scale are nonetheless problematic
as this is very often the scale at which water management is
implemented, especially in tropical regions (e.g., small scale
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1256 W. Buytaert et al.: Downscaling for water resources management
irrigation schemes). Also for many larger watersheds, pro-
viding mean areal averages of precipitation (as in Fig. 5c
and f) is often insufficient. Especially in hydrologically het-
erogeneous regions such as the Andes, the exact location of
precipitation is very important. For instance, high altitudinal
wetlands have a very different hydrological response than the
degraded, steep slopes of the interandean valley (e.g., Buy-
taert et al., 2006a)
It should be noted, however, that observed climatologies
themselves are prone to large uncertainties. Also, this pa-
per analysed only yearly means. The comparison of the rep-
resentation of seasonality in PRECIS is the topic of further
The question remains to which extent these results can
be extrapolated to other regions. The Ecuadorian Andes is
a region with extreme gradients in precipitation, and a sur-
face water dominated hydrology with limited buffering ca-
pacity. Similar regions, suchas the rest of thenorthern Andes
and other tropical mountain regions, may experience similar
problems. However, in glaciated or snowmelt dominated re-
gions (including much of the outer tropical and subtropical
Andes) with a long dry season the situation can be quite dif-
ferent. Here, changes in temperature are more important as
theydriveglacierandsnowmelt. Itisexpectedthatduringthe
dry season no large changes in precipitation will occur and
that temperature changes will be the most important driver
of changes in water resources. This can only be realistically
investigated with RCMs due to the elevation dependence of
projected temperature changes.
Finally, this study evaluated only one RCM driven by one
GCM. Other combinations may give very different results.
In order to evaluate whether RCMs indeed decrease the en-
tire projection envelope of precipitation, it is necessary to
implement RCMs for the entire GCM ensemble. Such ef-
forts are currently ongoing (e.g., the CORDEX experiment).
However, at least for some regions it may be that uncertainty
will not reduce sufficiently in the near future to translate cli-
mate projections into hydrological projections that are of di-
rect relevance for local water resources management. In such
areas, adaptation strategies should focus on decreasing the
vulnerabilities and increasing the robustness of current sup-
ply systems.
Acknowledgements. We would like to thank Gregory Greenwood
from the Mountain Research Initiative and Daniel Viviroli of
the University of Bern for organising the workshop on "Climate
change and water resources management in mountains" in Septem-
ber 2009, and for editing the special issue. WB was supported by
a Royal Geographical Society RGS-IBG Small Research Grant.
MV acknowledges funding through NSF-awards EAR-0519415
and EAR-0836215. RC was supported by SENACYT PIC-08-460
grant. We acknowledge the research institutes that provided access
to climate model projections through the IPCC Data Distribution
Centre (http://www.ipcc-data.org/).
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text:
High School Football Friday Night-September 28th
There will be three high school football games played in Texarkana this Friday night.
There will be three high school football games played in Texarkana this Friday night.
Monday night football ended in controversy with a botched call by the replacement refs on a last second Hail Mary pass to give Seattle the win over Green Bay.
The Dallas Cowboys won their home opener but it was not pretty.
Its Friday Night Football across the area.
The waiting game continues as Arkansas prepares for Rutgers on Saturday. Will Tyler Wilson play or not?
The Arkansas High Razorbacks open conference play at home this Friday Night.
Sigh. I guess it's better to laugh than to cry. I think this is the message John L. Smith was trying to get across on Monday when he opened his press conference demanding the media to smile.
Monday Night Football on ESPN will sport a new opener to the 2012 football season with the legendary Charlie Daniels Band.
How many of these games did you attend?
The internet is abuzz with rumors that Louisville Head Coach Charlie Strong is currently in talks with Arkansas to be the Hogs next head coach.
As expected, the Arkansas Razorbacks opened up the 2012 season with a win Saturday over Jacksonville State. What wasn't expected, was how sloppy that win would be.
Most of us Razorback fans could probably list at least 20 of these types of calls over the years, but these probably stand out the most in most Hog fans minds. For the record, I do not believe bad calls cost teams ball games, although there are times when they come at the most inconvenient moments

subset: commoncrawl


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CTIA shows off what's new in smartphones, accessories, and all things mobile.
CNET breaks out the most important things to know when shopping for a new television.
Stay ahead of flu season this year and monitor the virus from the safe distance of your smartphone or computer screen. In this Tech Minute, CNET's Kara Tsuboi reports on a handful of mobile apps and websites to help protect yourself against this seasonal bug.
Just because World Space Week is wrapping up, doesn't mean you can't keep exploring the cosmos. In this Tech Minute, CNET's Kara Tsuboi reports on a handful of new space science and technology apps.
Hot on Quirky's heels, Insteon's announcing a new smart outlet with two remote-controllable sockets.
Skipping the Black Friday crowds doesn't mean you have to miss out on the best deals. Lots of hot tech products are going on sale on Cyber Monday. We're tracking them all here.
Almost 2 billion people around the world use smartphones -- typically worth hundreds of dollars a pop on the black market. A former smartphone thief explains their allure to street criminals.
Production of the lower-cost iPhone will cease during the middle of 2015, claims Taiwan's Industrial and Commercial Times.
The most important things to know when shopping for a new laptop, hybrid, or Windows tablet.
The only catch? The phone is currently out of stock online, though Microsoft promises it will be available for Black Friday.
The biggest shopping day of the year is gearing up to be a madhouse at the stores, but with the right apps you can map out your shopping strategy and get the best deals before they're gone.


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Super Duty
Fire proves Super Dutys will be aluminum, spies say
12:01 am U.S. ET | Aug. 11, 2014It's been a burning question: Will Super Duty versions of the redesigned Ford F-series pickup have aluminum bodies like the 2015 F-150? Some bloggers and a spy photographer think the inferno that destroyed a testing prototype in Death Valley in July answers the question....
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Ford, Ram escalate towing war
12:01 am U.S. ET | July 21, 2014Ford launched a salvo in the escalating heavy-duty pickup towing rivalry last week. And Ram promptly fired right back....
Read More »
Ford recalls 3,976 Super Duty pickups for transmission issue
8:40 am U.S. ET | May 5, 2014Ford is recalling almost 4,000 commercial versions of its F-Series full-sized pickup, mostly in the United States, because they could slip into reverse and increase the risk of a crash....
Read More »
Ford expands Super Duty capacity at Kentucky plant
12:01 am U.S. ET | Feb. 3, 2014Ford Motor Co., with demand for its Super Duty pickups on the rise, plans to boost production capacity of the trucks 15 percent at its Kentucky Truck plant in Louisville....
Read More »
Special Report
How 3 dealerships are connecting with tech-savvy shoppersThree dealers have found ways to forge bonds with car shoppers who are short on time and long on Web smarts. A Honda store has mobilized a young sales team hired from Starbucks and Best Buy. Mon., November 17
» Watch the Video
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1. APhoto Fix: In this photo released at his retirement home in Tosny, western Fance, Friday March 3, 2006, Rene Riffaud is seen in either 1917 or 1918. France has rediscovered two centenarian veterans of the 1914-1918 conflict that killed millions, increasing the number of known survivors from five to seven and raising the possibility that there may be others that French officials do not know about.
2. Cartoon Fix: Henry Payne (Your family practitioner), Mike Luckovich (Barney Fife lives), and Drew Litton (Olympics TV ratings).
3. Humor Fix: David Letterman's "Top Ten Signs You're Not Going To Win An Academy Award" here.
4. My Way Fix: This Day In History here, Today's Birthdays here, Positive Quote here, and Word of the Day here.
5. Top of the News Fix: Poll: Bush strength on terrorism falls along with job approval here, Harris Poll: Americans support "Crash," "Walk The Line" stars for Oscars here, Study links mercury to autism here, Columnist Art Buchwald near death here, and Animal-rights activists convicted for harassment here.
6. Opinion Fix: James Klurfeld/Newsweek (Bush presidency falling apart), Diana West/Washington Times (Ports & pitchforks), Daniel Henninger/Wall Street Journal (Has Washington gone insane?), Kathleen Parker/Orlando Sentinel (Free to hate … and dine alone), and Chuck Colson/BreakPoint (Which movies really are mainstream).
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ACE Fit Share
Add some diversity to your fitness program with these butt and hip exercises from the American Council on Exercise. We'll help you tone up those glutes and get that butt into shape. Choose from a wide variety of hip flexibility and strengthening exercises including glute bridges, BOSU lateral jumps and more. These exercises come with detailed instructions, step-by-step guidance and tutorials on proper equipment use. For full workout routines featuring butt and hip exercises, be sure to visit our Workouts section.
Fit Life Articles
The pain of shin splints can be debilitating and derail even the most dedicated exerciser. Whether you experience shin splints regularly or rarely, the following guide to short- and long-term care and prevention will help get you back on track and enjoying all your favorite...
You hit the gym five days a week, get your recommended servings of fruits and vegetables, and even make moderation your mantra, but if these five foods are still lurking in your kitchen, you may be sabotaging your healthy lifestyle and all the hard work you've been putting...
The last days of summer are here, but that's no reason to lose the summer body you've worked so hard to achieve. ACE Certified pro Chris Freytag offers four great tips for keeping your body strong and healthy well into the colder months of the year.
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Contact: Kevin Stacey
Brown University
Caption: Encryption might not be enough for all that data stored in the cloud. An analysis of usage patterns -- which files are accessed and when -- can give away secrets as well. Computer scientists at Brown have developed an algorithm to sweep away those digital footprints. It's a complicated series of dance-like moves they call the Melbourne Shuffle.
Credit: Tamassia Lab / Brown University
Usage Restrictions: None
Related news release: 'Melbourne Shuffle' secures data in the cloud


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Pavlov would love the Internet.
Cranky Cuss
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- Ossining, New York, United States
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- I am the author of "Send In the Clown Car: The Road to the White House 2012," currently available on Amazon and CreateSpace. I'm currently semi-retired after 23 years in a corporate environment. My motto: The conventional wisdom has too much convention, not enough wisdom. Corollary: Even Einstein was wrong sometimes, and you're not Einstein.
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Ann Curry on Today Show Ratings Decline: Yay!by Hilton Hater at . Comments
Ann Curry couldn't help by cry when she made her final appearance as co-host of The Today Show.
But in light of that program's steady decline in the ratings, sources now say the only tears this reporter is shedding are those of joy.
"Ann feels completely vindicated by The Today Show's poor ratings since she left," an insider tells Radar Online. "She feels she was fired completely unfairly and wasn't given a fair shot at the gig."
Indeed, Savannah Guthrie has taken over for Curry, but Today continues to lose out to rival Good Morning America.
"Ann feels she was made a scapegoat by the network and that it's the whole show that needed an overhaul, not her replacing," added this source, saying Curry is especially peeved at Matt Lauer, who many say was responsible for giving his coworker the boot.
"There's definitely no love lost for Lauer, who she feels threw her under the bus completely."
Yeah, serious, I'm started to dislike Ann Curry. Not by her own fault but because of these articles. Please stop with the articles on The Today Show. We don't care.
Not a fan of the Today Show, but please stop it with all the boo-hoo sympathy for Anne Curry losing her co-host gig. She received $10 million payment, plus has already been put back to work on NBC. I feel sorry for those people who lose their jobs (with families to support) who don't have this safety net!!! When did we start weeping for overpaid mediocre talent on TV or the cinema??!!!
I liked Ann Curry very much on the show. I have never liked Matt whatever-his-last-name-is, nor does Samantha? Guthrie project like a professional. Matt Lawer? seems to have the network in a grip in a painful place in their anatomy to have been able to stay on as the mummified permanent anchor all this time. I almost never watch that program, with the exception of the Olympics, but even then, I find myself turning to another channel to avoid his annoying presence.
I'm waiting for karma to get matt also. Too bad that network doesn't seem to want to wake up. Matt's the needs to be gone! Love how they pay rotten people for interviews or should I say pictures. LOL!! Quit watching years ago.
Have not watched Today since the day you left Ann. Karma will get Matt.....I am postive. What goes around comes around and he will get his in doubles. He did you a favor.


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The Air Force's civil engineering (CE) program has declined in recent years from 12% of the total budget in the 1990s to 8.9% today, as more money is budgeted for weapons development and military readiness.
The Air Force has 65,000 family housing units that require total renovation, Col. Richard J. Ingenloff, chief of the Air Force's engineering division, announced to FEDCON audience members. Ingenloff said the Air Force plans to build 14,000 dormitory rooms and replace 5,500 others to provide private rooms to all personnel by 2009. The dormitory program is fully funded and will be contracted out, while about one-third of the family housing program will be privatized.
The Air Force's civil engineering (CE) program has declined in recent years from 12% of the total budget in the 1990s to 8.9% today, as more money is budgeted for weapons development and military readiness. "There is a direct link between infrastructure and readiness," Ingenloff said, "and 55% of Air Force facilities and infrastructure has deficiencies that impact readiness."
"We are targeting our limited funds on urgent needs," Ingenloff said. The $6.4 billion CE budget for FY 2001 includes $1.6 billion for real property maintenance; $1 billion for military family housing; $1.3 billion for real property services; $40 million for demolition; $935 million for environmental programs; $1.1 billion for military construction; $29 million for nuclear and chemical bio-defense, and $256 million for "Red Horse," a military hard-core construction team that "can go out on short notice."
In FY 2001, the Air Force will spend $72 million for family housing replacements at Minot AFB (ND); Mt. Home AFB (ID); Edwards AFB (CA); Travis AFB (CA); Nellis AFB (NV); Cavalier AFB (ND), and Bolling AFB (DC). The contractor will strip the house to its shell and then rebuild to whole house performance standards. Another $174 million will be spent for family housing improvements at bases in the United States and overseas.
While the Army is privatizing all of its family housing, the Air Force's policy is to consider privatization only where the housing area can be separated from the military facility, and where economically feasible. "By 2010, one-third of our housing will be privatized," Ingenloff said. The goal is to provide safe and adequate housing for all Air Force families by 2010. "We just can't take care of 65,000 inadequate homes with the capital we have."
Ten pilot privatization projects have been authorized to test a range of approaches, Ingenloff said. Lackland AFB (TX) signed the Air Force's first housing privatization agreement in 1998. Last month Robins AFB (GA) and Dyess AFB (TX) awarded contracts. Kirtland AFB (NM) has a request for proposal (RFP) ready to be issued this month. Patrick AFB (FL) will issue an RFP in January 2001; Wright-Patterson AFB (OH) in March 2001; and Dover AFB (DE), Little Rock AFB (AR), Moody AFB (GA), and Offutt AFB (NE) in April 2001.
The Air Force spends about $935 million a year on environmental programs. For more information on environmental contracting opportunities, check the web page for the Air Force Center for Environmental Excellence in San Antonio at http://www.afcee.brooks. af.mil, or the San Antonio RFP and Acquisition Highway (SARAH) web page at http://sarah.brooks.af.mil.
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'25 Days of RollOuts' features daily product updates
This month, the print edition of Aggregates Manager includes an article titled "Top RollOuts of 2013," which features several new and innovative products released in 2013.
In light of the Top RollOuts in the magazine, we're sharing "25 Days of RollOuts" on the website. Each day in December, we'll post a different product from the Top RollOuts, some with additional information and videos.
We'd love for you to share and discuss these products on Twitter and Facebook with the hashtag #AM25DaysOfRollOuts.
Be sure to check out 25 Days of RollOuts each day to see what's new. To see the Top RollOuts of 2013, take a look at the December issue of Aggregates Manager or simply click here.
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|NEW! Girl Asked Me to Ride Her
|NEW! Hole in My Fishnet
Special Thanks to: Repsol_Pat
|NEW! Thong & Pink Fishnets on my Respol
Special Thanks to: Repsol_Pat
|Marrie Hero Super View
|Amazing Jesse's Pearls
|Monica Senza
|Sonya in Green Swimwear Pt.2
|Sonya in Green Swimwear Pt.1
|Xandra in Awesome Shorts
|Xandra First Ride
|Pt.2 Tammy Pulled Over by Cop on Bike
|Pt.1 Tammy Pulled Over by Cop on Bike
|Tammy Get Some Pics
|Tammy Get Some Pics
|Tammy Riding With Out Her Butt Touching The Seat
|Tammy Riding Downtown
|Idiot Almost Knocked Me!
|Cop Behind Us Is Happy To See Ass
|Jackie is Riding at Night
|Tabitha In Spanking Zone
|Gaga is Standing Up!
|Marrie Riding on a Sunny Day
|Tammy in Skull Leggings
|Tammy White One
|Tammy White Two
|Purple Leggings
|Tabitha Practicing Wheelies
|Tammy in The Tunnel!
|Jackie's First Ride!
|Tabitha Riding In Wilderness
|Tab In Hipotizing Shorts
|Tammy's New Leggings
|Ball Buster Wheelie
|First Ride With Vanessa
|First Ride With Tabitha
|Female Motorcycle Pillion Cam Black 2
|Two Lunatics Near Miss Me On My Bike
5 comments
March 28, 2014 5:35 pmPosted 8 months ago
March 30, 2014 9:37 amPosted 7 months ago
April 1, 2014 2:13 amPosted 7 months ago
Love your videos! You are living every man's dream. Will the girls allow you to show the fans what they look like under the helmet? But keep up the good work and ride safe.
April 8, 2014 3:56 pmPosted 7 months ago
April 15, 2014 11:32 pmPosted 7 months ago
This is good work. Yall need to make more videos at a better pace. Show more see-thru leggings & g strings. Tell Tammy to be more sexy on the bike and this could be the next best thing!


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ChamberFest Cleveland now through June 30
June 20, 2013
Blogger Frank Kuznik of CulturedCleveland offers readers a preview of ChamberFest Cleveland [It's] About Time, which opened in Mixon Hall June 20 and runs through June 30 at various venues around the city. Now in its second year, CFC was co-founded last year by father, clarinetist and CIM faculty member Franklin Cohen and his daughter, violinist Diana Cohen.
Check out CulturedCleveland's interview with the Cohens. Look for the Summer 2013 issue of CIM's Notes magazine for more with Frank and Diana.
2013 Cleveland ChamberFest schedule
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Faculty Recital
November 23, 2014, 4:00 pm
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November 23, 2014, 4:00 pm
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New works by CIM student composers
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December 2, 2014, 7:30 pm
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Asics Gel Lyte V Gore-Tex "Black/Volt" – Available by Darren Griffin 0 Comments
beatiful, gunna be a pain in the ass trying to get these
April 2nd, 2014 by John Kim / 2
After a string of unrelenting teasers on his personal Instagram, Ronnie Fieg finally puts the discussion to rest by officially unveiling his Asics Gel Lyte V "Cove" and "Mint" collaboration. With a release date for both pairs set for this Saturday, April 5th at $160 a piece, these two tonal-upper colorways draw back to his earlier projects with the brand as a way of paying tribute to his favorites without outright retro-ing them. You'll find the same great details on these Vs though – the pigskin layer, reflective accents, and more. Check out the official photos below and stay tuned for a release this Saturday at 11 AM on the KITH online store.
Source: rf
beatiful, gunna be a pain in the ass trying to get these
@mikejr222 hopefully not with all these Nike/Jordan releases this weekend!!! Im tryna grab both of these! The hype is real this week. Im tryna sneak in the Fiegs
Asics Gel Lyte V "Black Speckle" by Patrick Johnson 6 Comments
Ronnie Fieg x New Balance 850 "Brooklyn Bridge" by John Kim 11 Comments
Asics Gel Saga "Mustard" by Darren Griffin 1 Comments
Ronnie Fieg x New Balance 530 by John Kim 5 Comments


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Information for Applicants
Obtaining and Using Medical Information
The Americans with Disabilities Act limits the medical information that an employer can seek from a job applicant. During the application stage, an employer may not ask questions about an applicant's medical condition or require an applicant to take a medical examination before it makes a conditional job offer. This means that an employer cannot ask:
After making a job offer, an employer may ask questions about an applicant's health (including asking whether the applicant has diabetes) and may require a medical examination as long as it treats all applicants the same.
1. May an employer ask any follow-up questions if an applicant reveals that she has diabetes?
If an applicant voluntarily tells an employer that she has diabetes, an employer only may ask two questions: whether she needs a reasonable accommodation and what type of accommodation.
Example: An individual applying at a grocery store for a cashier's position voluntarily discloses that she has diabetes and will need periodic breaks to take medication. The employer may ask the applicant questions about the reasonable accommodation, such as how often she will need breaks and how long the breaks need to be. Of course, the employer may not ask any questions about the condition itself, such as how long the applicant has had diabetes, whether she takes any medication, or whether anyone else in her family has diabetes.
2. What should an employer do when it learns that an applicant has diabetes after he has been offered a job?
The fact that an applicant has diabetes may not be used to withdraw a job offer if the applicant is able to perform the fundamental duties ("essential functions") of a job, with or without reasonable accommodation, without posing a direct threat to safety. ("Reasonable accommodation" is discussed on Information for Employers at Questions 1 through 4. "Direct threat" is discussed at Questions 5 through 7.) The employer, therefore, should evaluate the applicant's present ability to perform the job effectively and safely. After an offer has been made, an employer also may ask the applicant additional questions about his condition. For example, following an offer, an employer could ask the applicant how long he has had diabetes, whether he takes any medication, and whether the condition is under control. The employer also could send the applicant for a follow-up medical examination. An employer may withdraw an offer from an applicant with diabetes only if it becomes clear that he cannot do the essential functions of the job or would pose a direct threat (i.e., a significant risk of substantial harm) to the health or safety of himself or others.
Example: A qualified candidate for a police officer's position is required to have a medical exam after he has been extended a job offer. During the exam, he reveals that he has had diabetes for five years. He also tells the doctor that since he started using an insulin pump two years ago, his blood sugar levels have been under control. The candidate also mentions that in his six years as a police officer for another department, he never had an incident related to his diabetes. Because there appears to be no reason why the candidate could not safely perform the duties of a police officer, it would be unlawful for the employer to withdraw the job offer.
Excerpted and Adapted from the EEOC Fact Sheet: The Americans with Disabilities Act and Diabetes by the U.S. Equal Employment Opportunity Commission.
Reviewed by Francine Kaufman, MD. 4/08
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Recipe Shuffle
Italian Veggie Platter Fancy-Ham Wrapped Fruit Mushroom and Herb Potage Soup Cold Cucumber Soup Sour Cream Chocolate Brownies Chili Tomato Sauce Shrimp Sate with Pineapple Salsa Grilled Red Bell Pepper Dip Sweet and Spicy Pork Tenderloin Easy Rack of Lamb
I have spent the past three days dealing with an evil stomach bug. Gastro issues, bloodsugar issues and a headache for the ages - along with a low grade fever - left me in bed trying (and mostly failing) to rest. I'm back at work today after two sick days, but still on slo-mo. Weird bloodsugars are always my "getting sick" miner's canary. Everyone knows what a miner's canary is, right? Back in the day, miners would keep a caged bird (often a canary) with them in the mine....


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August Alsina - Heavy
Artist: August Alsina
Producer: 3A [for Noontime]
Album: Party & Bullsh*t Maxi Single
Avg Rating: 3.7 ( 9 votes )
Update: Click "Listen Now" above to watch August's "Heavy" video.
Fresh off bringing us the reader-acclaimed Party & Bullsh*t, August Alsina returns with another fresh cut off his new, three-track single. On Heavy, the New Orleans crooner instructs a romantic rival to drop his girl and back away slowly, issuing his soulful ultimatum over a smooth synth beat by 3A. Released today, August Alsina's Party & Bullsh*t maxi-single is available now for free digital download.
August Alsina Music VideosDownloadsR&B/Pop
Written by richard on 03/6/12
Submit your Rating
Noontime UNLTD./Def Jam
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"B*tches In ATL" (2011)
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You are Wiser than Narcissistic Spouse–Sever the Cord
Narcissists are clever at attempting to make us doubt our inner wisdom. They intimidate and tempt us at the same time. Those with narcissists are in a state of chronic apprehension. "What will he/she do next?" "What have I done … Continue reading
Posted in narcississtic personality, Narcissistic Personality, narcissistic personality disorder, narcissistic wife, self help. mental health Tagged narcissist's traps, narcissistic seductions watch red flags, narcissistic spouse intimidates, narcissistic spouses, you are wiser than narcissistic spouse Leave a comment


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November 26, 2014
ROCKFORD (WIFR) -- Saint Anthony College of Nursing (SACN) welcomes Cindy L. Fearn, MSOHN, RN, CM, COHN-S, as its institutional effectiveness/assessment specialist. With a master's degree in Occupational Health Nursing and certification as an occupational health nurse specialist, Fearn brings an extensive clinical and academic background to the College.
Fearn graduated with a Master of Science in Occupational Health Nursing from the University of Illinois at Chicago. She received her Bachelor of Science in Nursing with a minor in Professional Communications at Alverno College in Milwaukee, Wis.
Before coming to Saint Anthony College of Nursing, Fearn was the Manager of Health Services for S & C Electric Company at their corporate headquarters in Chicago, Ill. Among Fearn's many accomplishments, she held the office of president of the Northern Illinois Association of Occupational Health Nurses (NIAOHN) from 2004 through 2006.
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Infrared Satellite Near Shady Grove, PA
- Maugansville Infrared Satellite
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- Chambersburg Infrared Satellite
- South Mountain Infrared Satellite
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I have a wedding in June that I am making the cake for and they want a cake with this texture:
Any ideas on how to achieve this? It looks more detailed than a simple spatula technique.
For this cake I put the BC on in a rough coat with a spatula mixing the two colors right on the cake, then used a fork to create the crenellation of the "bark".
That was a small cake (6 in). The effect you are looking for would be more easily and more realistically done by putting on one coat of buttercream. No need to over smooth it. Then use a round tip to apply scattered vertical strips of buttercream, some shorter, some longer and with varying intervals between them. Finally, use the tip of your spatula to drag the buttercream up and down with light pressure so you don't smooth it too much. HTH and post photos when you're done.
Life begins at 325° F, and, yes, that IS powdered sugar in my hair.
Life begins at 325° F, and, yes, that IS powdered sugar in my hair.
I would just about promise that this cake was made using the Winbeckler's tree bark silicone mold. Their site is called cakesuppliesplus.com and the mold is $22. It's what I used for my daughter's wedding cake and it looks identical. I will try to post the cake here but if I fail, my name is RoxieCakes and it's a tree bark - tree stump - sunflowers cake. FYI - I used chocolate ganache but tried the mold on buttercream and it worked perfectly. The site says it works on fondant and although I didn't try, I would agree. Also, the Winbecklers' use an airbrush but I don't own one so used thinned dusts in white, black, browns, and moss greens to achieve the look. I'm glad to answer specific questions if you have any. And I can't say for sure that the artist used this mold, but it sure looks like it to me. Happy Baking!!
Thank you for all the replies!
I tried using a silicone mold of bark but because I use SMB it didn't work. The frosting stuck to the mold. I think you need to use a crusting buttercream or fondant for this method.
What I ended up doing was using MyFairDiva's suggestion of using tinfoil. I created a tool with tin foil that had a round point and used that to make the lines and then I used another tool made with tin foil that had a flat point and used that to make all the texture lines. For the heart, I used a heart cutter wrapped in tin foil and pressed it onto the cake.
Here is the final product.
Or, you can do what this Yankee (me) did. Go out back with a can of Pam spray and a huge fist full of magic molding compound. Spray the heck out of an area on a rough bark tree, slap the molding medium on and wait a half hour. Run outside and rip it off before your husband sees what you're doing, wash the mold thoroughly and use.........worked for me. And in the original photo, I totally agree that a mold was used on the bottom tier but not on the top two. Looks like the decorator either was in a hurry and couldn't fuss with it any longer or gave up trying to make the top two tiers look as good as the bottom. Just an observation.
I have no problems making a bark mold at my house with a tree from my property. We all use "found" household items to make molds. It's my husbands reaction I was trying to avoid. He already says that I'm odd from sniffing all that white stuff ...............powdered sugar. And being odd makes us much better artists. We were born thinking outside every box. :-)


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Carrera Carrera 5014
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Friday was move-in day for new students at Notre Dame. The traffic caused backups in certain areas.
Classes at Notre Dame start Tuesday, and upperclassmen are allowed to move in on Sunday.
Katherine Clark, a ND freshman from Grand Rapids, says she felt, "Happy then sad...but mostly happy. I am at my dream school, so how is that not a good thing."
Kim Clark, a ND mom, says, "This is the next right step for her. She found out at thirteen years old that this is where she wanted to go and she has worked hard to get here. She's on the fencing team, she's going to have a great time, this is really home for her."
With all the parents and students in the area, hotels, restaurants and stores will be busy this weekend, bringing money into the local economy.