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Wednesday, 06 August 2014 00:00
Sail For Deafness
Thursday, Aug. 7
The Panama And Cape Cod Canals
Friday, Aug. 8
Randy Jackson Performs
Friday, Aug. 8
Children's Story Times at the Oyster Bay-East Norwich Library, through Aug. 13. 10:15 a.m.: Mother Goose Time (9-23 months); 10:40 a.m.: Toddler Time (24-35 months); 11:15 a.m.: Book/Game Buddies (3-6 years).
The annual Sail the Sound for Deafness event takes place on Aug. 7 and includes a Regatta and a Cocktail Party, in a partnership between the Mill Neck Manor, Oakcliff Sailing Center, the WaterFront Center and the Oyster Bay Marine Center. For information and fees call 628-4243.
The OB-EN Public Library, 89 East Main St., presents on Aug. 7, at 2 p.m. and 6:30 p.m.: Heaven is for Real. The true story of a small-town father who shares his son's extraordinary, life- changing experience with the world. Colton claims to have visited Heaven during a near death experience. Starring: Thomas Haden Church, Kelly Reilly and Greg Kinnear. (Rated PG for thematic material including some medical situations, 99 min.) For information call 516-922-7572.
Tables will be set up in the Green Room where children can build whatever their imaginations can come up with. All Lego creations will remain in the library. Children under 9 must be accompanied by an adult. 10 a.m. to noon, Oyster Bay-East Norwich Library.
The Oyster Bay Historical Society, 20 Summit St., presents a special event on Aug. 8, Panama and Cape Cod: The Centennial of Two Canals. Theodore Roosevelt was instrumental in the creation of the Panama Canal. Elizabeth Roosevelt will deliver the special illustrated lecture on the canals across Panama and Cape Cod, marking the centennial of these two marvels of American engineering. 6 p.m. For more information call 516-922-5032 or visit their website at oysterbayhistorical.org.
Summer Nights Dream Cruise, benefiting Flags for Classrooms, Pets for Vets, and more, takes place from 5:30 to 9 p.m., Fridays through Oct. 31 at Ransom Beach, 10 Bayville Ave. Show vehicles fee, $5; spectators are free. Call 882-5022 for information.
Canterbury Ales features Randy Jackson of Zebra for a fun night of music. Call 922-3614 for information.
The Incorporated Village of Bayville Presents: Music Under the Stars, an annual free summer concert series at West Harbor Memorial Park in Bayville. This week's band will be Chris Dijon (rock band from Sea Cliff) and Alec C. (singer/songwriter from New York City). The concerts are Friday evenings from 8 to 10 p.m. (weather permitting) and are free to the general public. In case of inclement weather, cancellations will be posted on the village's website, www.bayvilleny.gov.
Secrets to Wellness at Any Age with Lorna Sophocleous, CHHC, a certified holistic health coach and owner of HealWithRealFood. Her practice focuses on inspiring individuals to achieve a healthy relationship with food and their bodies. Lorna believes people can find strength, spark and confidence at any age and will teach the tools to achieve these goals. Join in at the Bayville Free Library for this session, from 7 to 8 p.m.
From 7 to 8:45 p.m. at the Oyster Bay-East Norwich Library. Iceland: Land of Fire, Ice & Greenery: A Multimedia Travel Tour with Carole and Richard Witkover. When people hear the country's name they naturally think of ice, but actually only about 10 percent of the country is glacier covered; the rest is a green landscape with waterfalls, geysers, hot springs and volcanoes. Throw in magnificent Icelandic horses, black sand beaches, puffins, whales and friendly people and you have a great place to visit only five hours from New York. Its landscape is a photographer's delight. Q & A to follow. Register at the Reference Desk or call the library at 516-922-1212.
In this hands-on workshop, learn the basics of the world's most popular spreadsheet program, including creating, editing and formatting worksheets, formulas, and much more. Prerequisites: Computer Kindergarten and Computer 1st Grade or equivalent. Register at the Reference Desk. Fee is $4, due at registration. From 6:30 to 8:30 p.m. at the Oyster Bay-East Norwich Library.
Children's Story Times at the Oyster Bay-East Norwich Library. 10:15 a.m.: Mother Goose Time (9-23 months); 10:40 a.m.: Toddler Time (24-35 months); 11:15 a.m.: Book/Game Buddies (3-6 years).
The OB-EN Public Library, 89 East Main St., presents Bad Words at 2 p.m. and 6:30 p.m. Guy Trilby is a 40-year-old who finds a loophole in the rules of The Golden Quill national spelling bee and decides to cause trouble by hijacking the competition. While reporter Jenny Widgeon attempts to discover his true motivation, Guy finds himself forging an unlikely alliance with a competitor: awkward 10-year-old Chaitanya Chopra, who is completely unfazed by Guy's take-no-prisoners approach to life. Starring: Rohan Chand, Allison Janney, Beth Grant, Jason Bateman, Philip Baker Hall, Kathryn Hahn, Amanda Anka and Ben Falcone. (Rated R for crude and sexual content, language and brief nudity, 89 min.)
The Oyster Bay Historical Society, 20 Summit Street presents a retrospective exhibit by Gregory Reid at the Koenig Center now through Sept. 5. The original works are for sale with a portion benefiting the OBHS. For more information and hours call 922-5032.
East Norwich hosts the At-Home-Gallery at 6306 25A, opposite Rothmann's, now through July, or by appointment. It features abstract oil paintings by Jill S. Krutick and rugs by Heirloom, of Locust Valley. For information call 914-522-0420.
The North Shore Assembly of God, 84 Orchard St., Oyster Bay is operating a new food pantry for the community. It is meant to supplement the growing needs of the community. It is open on Tuesdays during their prayer times: 11 a.m. to 12:30 p.m. and 7 to 9 p.m. If you are in need of their service, please call Pastor Diane at 516-922-2547 and make an appointment to complete their screening process.
Friday, 28 November 2014 00:00
This holiday season, Oyster Bay will once again be home to unique, homemade, scrumptious confections from The Chocolate Lady, in the form of a mobile chocolate boutique set up at Buckingham Variety Store on Audrey Avenue. She arrived on Sunday and plans on staying throughout the holidays, and possibly longer.
"I have been developing this concept for the last year and a half and am excited to be coming home to Oyster Bay for this year's holiday launch," says Lee Perrotta, aka The Chocolate Lady, who had her shop across the street from Buckingham's for about five years before she was forced to shut her doors on Christmas Eve in 2012 due to excessive water damage at the rental space.
Thursday, 27 November 2014 00:00
The Raise The Roof Concert, held at Christ Church on Nov. 9, was an intergenerational event to benefit the Life Enrichment Center of Oyster Bay's seniors.
Board member Suzanne Paolucci explained the center's wish to get iPods for the seniors as a source of musical therapy. She brought the idea to the center from a talk by social worker Dan Cohen, the founder of Music & Memory. He has produced a film, Alive Inside, that tells the story of music as being restorative. Music is like therapy for the elderly, in particular for those with dementia, as it has been shown to awaken memories of happier times in life, when energy and enthusiasm were boundless.
Friday, 28 November 2014 00:00
Long Island Lutheran High School senior Samantha Horton of Oyster Bay signed a National Letter of Intent to attend Siena College and compete on the Girls Division I Lacrosse Team in the goaltender position next year. Samantha will be receiving a full athletic scholarship. Horton is pictured with her family.
Thursday, 27 November 2014 00:00
On the weekend of Nov. 8, the Oyster Bay High School Boys and Girls Cross Country teams traveled to the State University of New York at Canton just a few miles from the Canadian border to compete in the New York State Cross Country Championships.
Alex Tosi became the first Bayman since Joe Jazwinski and Justin Nakrin (2008) to become All-State, placing 16th with a time of 16:53. Most runners ran about 20 seconds slower than their Bethpage times because of the muddy conditions on the course. Tosi's time was basically equivalent to his best Bethpage time, as he powered through the toughest parts of the race. He led the Baymen to a seventh place finish in the Class C race, an improvement from their 11th place finish last year, which ties the highest place at the New York State Championships of a Baymen team since 2009.
Annual Turkey Trot
Thursday, Nov. 27
Turkey Detox Workshop
Friday, Nov. 28
East Norwich Holiday
Sunday, Nov. 30
1959: The Year The Music Stopped Playing
Written by Michael A. Miller, firstname.lastname@example.com
The Eccentric Heiress Of 'Empty Mansions'
Written by Mike Barry, email@example.com
Yellow Margarine And A Pitch For The Ages
Written by Michael A. Miller, firstname.lastname@example.com


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Movie description: Sultry MILF Ariella Ferrera always had a penchant for fireman. Just like Alan who put out Ariella's fire with his hose and spray her with spunk.
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Ghetto Golf is a real game that needs a publisher
Ghetto Golf is a planned downloadable tile being created by Illfonic, a game studio founded by one of the guys from Tony! Toni! Tone! Also, this line is in MTV Multiplayer's article about the game: "One of the playable scenes they showed involved the hero Vonte needing to use his exploding golf ball to blow up a car that someone was ghost-riding."
... Honestly, what are we supposed to do with that?
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...Along with the songs in the books, I also start my students learning their scales from middle C up to c an octave higher. I start with penta scales, then to octave scales, then I start teaching them chords after that. I competed on a swim team for 6 years, in which I swam freestyle, breast stroke, backstroke, and butterfly.
42 Subjects: including TOEFL, chemistry, ESL/ESOL, English
Chicago, IL
...I teach sight-singing the way I learned it, with the movable-do solfege system and hand gestures to connect the solfege syllables to physical movement. I also have a bag of tricks and shortcuts that I've developed over the years that I'm happy to share. As someone with ADHD, I have always been keenly aware of the need to develop strong study habits and organizational skills.
29 Subjects: including Spanish, reading, English, grammar
Chicago, IL
...My philosophy is learning through interaction in the target language, while keeping it FUN. My credentials:I have a Bachelor's degree from Knox College (double major) in Spanish and Educational Studies where I graduated cum laude. I have studied Spanish literature and grammar at universities su...
1 Subject: Spanish
Chicago, IL
...My focus that year was fundamentals in reading, public speaking, geography and composition. I also have experience with 1st, 2nd and 4th graders teaching CCD in a local parish, including some students who did not yet know how to read, which presented some exciting challenges! Having taught middle school students for over 15 years, study skills have always been a mainstay in my curriculum.
36 Subjects: including ESL/ESOL, Spanish, reading, English
Chicago, IL
...I love learning and sharing my knowledge and experiences. I speak three languages fluently - English, French and Spanish - and enjoy traveling! I also love sports.
5 Subjects: including French, Spanish, business, marketing
Chicago, IL


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Health Care: State will add 112,000 health jobs this decade: report
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- Michael McCarthy, Contributing Writer
Spurred by the Affordable Care Act, economic recovery and an aging population, Washington state's health care work force will expand by 29 percent in this decade, according to a new report.
The report by the Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce predicts the state will need to add 112,000 health care jobs by 2020 — a 29 percent boost — to keep up with demand, far outstripping the 16 percent job growth foreseen in the rest of the state's economy.
Nationally, the demand for health care workers is expected to grow 30 percent, adding 5.6 million new jobs, the report concludes.
Local experts generally agree that the report's figures are in the ballpark and that there's no denying the trend.
While job growth in health care has slowed during the current recession, the pace of hiring will inevitably pick up as the economy recovers, said Bryan Wilson, deputy director of the Washington Workforce Training and Education Coordinating Board.
"The overall trend and expectation is still for increasing demand due to the aging of the population — both of patients who will need the services and the providers who will be retiring," he said. "That basic demographic is like the tide: You don't change it.
"And on top of that," he added, "we have effects of the Affordable Care Act that will increase demand as more people have insurance, one way or the other."
A study to assess the impact of the Affordable Care Act — the national health reform law that the Supreme Court upheld last month — on the state's health work force needs is under way with results due out this fall, Wilson said.
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text: ""; ?> Guitar Tabs, Guitar Chords and Lyrics - Chordie guitar tabs, guitar chords and lyrics Artists Songs Public booksPublic My songbookSongbook ResourcesDiv Forum public songs you rated this: Currently 0/5 Stars. Currently 0/5 Stars. 1 2 3 4 5 average: 0 by christianparkerAll Around This World (Grateful Dead)Brown-Eyed Woman (Grateful Dead)Catfish John (Jerry Garcia)Dead Flowers (Rolling Stones)Deal (Grateful Dead)dire wolf (Grateful Dead)Goin' to Acapulco (Bob Dylan)hard road to travel (Jimmy Cliff)how sweet it is (James Taylor)I Shot the Sheriff (Bob Marley)If Not For You (Bob Dylan)It Makes No Difference (Band)Looking Out My Back Door (Creedence Clearwater Revival)Loving Cup (Rolling Stones)Man In Me (Bob Dylan)Night they drove Old Dixie down (Band)o (Grateful Dead)Oh Sweet Nuthin (Velvet Underground)Ramble On Rose (Grateful Dead)romeo and juliet (Dire Straits)Sweet Jane (Velvet Underground)Take Me Home Country Roads (Toots and The Maytals)The Harder They Come (Jimmy Cliff)torn and frayed (Rolling Stones)Up on Cripple Creek (Band)Waiting on a Friend (The Rolling Stones)Weight (Band)Wild Horses (Rolling Stones) Note: If you log in, you can add this book to your private collection and edit the content.Return to main list play their songs - buy their music - support the artists copyright © 2011 chordie guitar chords 5 popular songs Night Moves Bob Seger Country Roads John Denver Man On The Moon REM Mr Tambourine Man Byrds Lay Lady Lay Bob Dylan New songbooksAwesome ChristmasVarious songsEasy Playing Book 1Various songsjohaninplumaslake songbookVarious songsByardVarious songs- all public songbooks -


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ICON Benefits
- Health Insurance
"One of the best I have ever had." (3 comments)
Benefits Summary
- High % reporting
- Medium % reporting
- Low % / No reports
- * Employer Verified
Insurance, Health & Wellness
- Health Insurance
- Dental Insurance
- Flexible Spending Account (FSA)
- Vision Insurance
- Health Savings Account (HSA)
- Life Insurance
- Supplemental Life Insurance
- Disability Insurance
- Occupation Accident Insurance
- Health Care On-Site
- Mental Health Care
- Retiree Health & Medical
- Accidental Death & Dismemberment Insurance
Financial & Retirement
- Pension Plan
- 401K Plan
- Retirement Plan
- Employee Stock Purchase Plan
- Performance Bonus
- Stock Options
- Equity Incentive Plan
- Supplemental Workers' Compensation
- Charitable Gift Matching
Family & Parenting
- Maternity & Paternity Leave
- Work From Home
- Fertility Assistance
- Dependent Care
- Adoption Assistance
- Childcare
- Reduced or Flexible Hours
- Military Leave
- Family Medical Leave
- Unpaid Extended Leave
Vacation & Time Off
- Vacation & Paid Time Off
- Sick Days
- Paid Holidays
- Volunteer Time Off
- Sabbatical
- Bereavement Leave
Perks & Discounts
- Employee Discount
- Free Lunch or Snacks
- Employee Assistance Program
- Gym Membership
- Commuter Checks & Assistance
- Pet Friendly Workplace
- Mobile Phone Discount
- Company Car
- Company Social Events
- Travel Concierge
- Legal Assistance
Professional Support
- Diversity Program
- Job Training
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- Tuition Assistance
Employee Comments
- ICON Nov 6, 2014
Great time-off and affordable benefits. The Tuition Reimbursement is very nice as well.
- ICON Nov 6, 2014
ICON has a Great benefits package, slightly better than industry standards. It has medical, dental, 401k, sick and holiday paid leave.
- ICON Oct 22, 2014
Great Family Medical and Dental Benefits
- ICON Oct 17, 2014
If I had responded to this a few days ago I would have given the benefits package 5 stars, but yesterday we all got a letter about our "new and exciting" benefits which will make us "competitive." Translation...you're losing 7 paid days off, the price of your insurance is going up monthly, your co-pays are increasing $5-20 (primary vs specialty), you prescriptions are increasing $10, and now you have a deductible. They are probably still a better package than most other companies, but don't insult my intelligence by charging me more, giving me less, and telling me how awesome it is. Especially when you just had a record quarter in profits.
- ICON Oct 13, 2014
Great insurance for a single person. Low cost and covers everything! Gets expensive when adding any additional people to plan though.
- ICON Sep 15, 2014
ICON offers time off and healthcare packages that are well above industry standards. 401k matching is adequate. Bonus payout has been brought back and employees that can show productivity are eligible to work from home in many positions.
- ICON Sep 10, 2014
High out of pocket expense, no chiropractic on the lower level plan.
- ICON Aug 13, 2014
Amazing benefits, for only $530/mo for a family - it pays 100% of almost everything, no deducibles, no coinsurance, just a $10 copay for office visits! They recognize domestic partners and even same-sex marriage licenses. 15 days vacation, 3 personal days, and 10 sick days per year for the first handful of years. Company contributes to 401K!


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Kenner police: Driver dies, passenger seriously hurt in one-car crash
Kenner police say the driver of a speeding car was killed and the passenger was seriously injured in a one-car crash.
Police say 24-year-old Andre Isaacs was speeding westbound on West Esplanade Avenue at about 5:15 Saturday morning.
Isaacs lost control of the car and went airborne, crashing through a utility pole and a fence in the 1500 block of West Esplanade Avenue, according to police.
He was pronounced dead on the scene.
A 20-year-old female passenger was seriously injured and transported to University Hospital, police say.
Police suspect impairment, along with aforementioned speed, as factors in the crash.
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Can public art really revive the most dismal place in Scotland?
The reviled new town of Cumbernauld pins hopes on giant sculpture costing £250,000
Wednesday 25 August 2010
The post-war politicians, planners and architects who built Cumbernauld had a utopian vision: for future generations to create a happier, more gracious life away from the filthy tenements and sectarianism of decaying Glasgow. And in the 1960s and early 1970s the people answered their call, relocating in their thousands to enjoy the wide open spaces, plentiful jobs and modern homes.
Recent history however has proved a cruel judge of that dream and the Lanarkshire new town has found itself one of the most reviled places in Britain. The home of the UK's first shopping mall has been named Scotland's most dismal place and likened to Kabul. In 2005 the shopping complex was nominated by the public for destruction as part of Channel 4's Demolition series.
But Cumbernauld is fighting back. Yesterday, a vast galvanised steel woman named Arria was erected in the sporadic sunshine at a hillside cemetery. It is hoped she will be a symbol of change for the town. Created by the Scottish artist Andy Scott, whose works include the celebrated Heavy Horse on Glasgow's M8 and the Thanksgiving Square Beacon in Belfast, the 33ft female figure, with a retro hairstyle suggestive of the town's 1960s new arrivals, will be seen by 70,000 motorists on the A80 each day.
Arria cost £250,000 of public money and is intended to help reverse the town's negative stereotypes. The name was selected by local people and is taken from Arria Fadilla, mother of Emperor Antoninus who built the nearby Antonine Wall.
The real sign of public acceptance, as with other public statues, will come with the acquisition of a nickname.
"It is a great idea," said Geraldine Reilly, a 31-year-old civil servant in Cumbernauld. "People don't see the good things about the town like the people or the beautiful countryside on our doorstep – they just see the shopping centre. This is a great place to bring up kids."
Others were not so convinced. Billy Zanieri, 44, unemployed, said: "It has been a waste of money. Housing is very bad here and the money could have gone on schools." And beautician Amanda McGuinness, 25, believed it was impossible ever to love Cumbernauld. "It needs burning down and rebuilding – especially the town centre. It needs new shops, new restaurants and new bars – something to liven the place up at night."
Naming rights...
When a public artwork receives a nickname, it is a sign that people have come to know, if not love, the work.
Molly Malone, Dublin
The statue of the celebrated fishmonger is alternatively known as the Trollop with the Scallop or the Tart with the Cart. Dubliners have demonstrated a disrespectful genius in re-christening their public artworks. Oscar Wilde in Merrion Square has been dubbed the Queer with the Sneer while even the lofty James Joyce brandishing his walking stick has been called the Prick with the Stick.
Angel of the North, Gateshead
Antony Gormley's imposing 20-metre figure soaring above motorists on the A1 is known to Geordies as the Rusty Flasher.
Thanksgiving Square Beacon, Belfast
Andy Scott's symbol of hope cost £300,000 when built in 2007 and is now a popular attraction. Locals refer to it as Nula with the Hula, the Bell with the Ball or the Thing with the Ring.
Draped Seated Woman, Stepney, east London
Henry Moore's famous bronze once sought to beautify the concrete towers of Stifford Estate. Residents warmed to the old girl christening her Old Flo. She now resides in the Yorkshire Sculpture Park though some want her brought back to the redeveloped East End site in time for the Olympics.
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With SNSD showing up in various fashion events and traveling around for various appearances, this uncomplicated yet flexible combination of sweater and jeans won voters' heart.
Yoona took quite a different approach for this winter it item — the sweater, which differed from the shorts-and-sweater ensemble that Seohyun wore last week. To add her own touch on this ensemble, she slipped the front part of her military green turtleneck sweater into her jeans, exposing her the silhouette of her lower waist and thighs. What's more, she adorned a pair of black boots with a slightly oversized leather bag. The whole atmosphere of her look is casual and relaxing as Yoona had her hair tied up.
Congratulations to Yoona and let's continue to vote for more OTWs for the next week!
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Rebecca Minkoff:
'Ryan' Bomber Jacket @ shop.nordstorm.com $378
'Nell' Tweed Miniskirt @ shop.nordstorm.com $148
Affair Fanny Bag @ shopbop.com $156
Ceasar Studded Point-Toe Bootie @ neimanmarcus.com $295
As seen at: Rebecca Minkoff S/S 2015 Fashion Show, 11/07/2014
1. Tulle: Printed Sleeveless Shirt Dress @ nordstromrack.com $29.97
2. Topshop: Fluffy Crew Neck Jumper @ topshop.com ~$57.47
3. Forever 21: Quilted Faux Leather Crossbody @ forever21.com $19.90
4. Boohoo: Molly Patent Block Heel Lace Up Boot @ boohoo.com $44
Total cost = $153.34
(Author's Note: The previous outfit of the week post was for outfit B, as opposed to the actual winner, outfit F. My apologies regarding the confusion and the incorrect post.)
The promotions for TTS may be over, but their members are still picking up awards, with Seohyun being your pick as this week's Outfit of the Week winner!
Ever the stylish maknae, Seohyun went for a chic but versatile ensemble that worked wonderfully for her. She started with a thick cable knit white sweater, no doubt useful for the cool weather that's commonplace in autumn, and it's geometric designs kept it from being too simple. In a nod to her more "mature" image, she opted for a pair of super short pair of black shorts, revealing quite a bit of leg despite the cold weather. Furthermore, she went with a pair of knee high boots, reminiscent of a certain concept from the past. For accessories, she went for a wide brimmed black hat and a small leather clutch, forgoing her usual sunglasses for the flight.
Congrats to Seohyun for winning, and thank you all for voting!
Image Credit: Newsen


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This great custom product in spider baby blue from our department Men and T-Shirt category can be printed just for you in the size and style you like. The design Police Car was created by natural and uploaded to Spreadshirt for you to have printed on a T-Shirt. Next to a host of other great customized designs, you can find this Police Car design in Spreadshirt's Miscellaneous category. If you are interested in topics like Cops or Heroes, then you'll love Police Car designs by natural. Spreadshirt also offers a huge selection of custom t-shirts, hoodies and accessories for the category Miscellaneous as well as top Police Car clothing. natural's designs have already impressed many of our customers, so we are sure that we've got right stuff for you! Spreadshirt is your destination for great designs of all kinds – whether it's Cops, Heroes or Police Car. We are sure that you will find something nice in our shop, there are many amazing custom Miscellaneous t-shirts, hoodies, or accessories for you to find! Tags: Design ID: 11890299
T shirt designs forfamilies, adults and children. My market place of designs include many subjects,Love,Mothers Day,Fathers Day,Valentine Day, Birthdays,Patriotic,Cycling,Football, Baseball,Soccer,Pregnancy etc.
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Unprofessional Fridays: 11/21/2014
Become a Premium member for $35/year!
Nintendo's all-stars assemble once again, resulting in one of the best reasons to own a Wii U (and eight GameCube controllers).
The move to more powerful consoles has resulted in a prettier looking wrestling game, but also a far less enjoyable one.
Far Cry 4's open-world provides ludicrous moments and enough chaotic fun to make it worth your while.
I love that stuff.
Once again bethesda will get a free pass.
Though I don't suffer crippling depression, my problems are more related to anxiety disorders, and depression seems to be a side effect.
Go to your doctor and get some pills, and keep taking them. Don't let anybody tell you any different, they do work.
But like, don't take them all at once, that would be bad.
The Empire.
The Thalmor are the real enemy, and the only hope of ever toppling the Altmeri Dominion is if all nations of men are united.
The Empire IS Talos.
@Phoenix778m said:
Sort of off topic but zip don't want to litter the main board. How do you tell how much a spell is buffing defence like stoneflesh. I also have Mage Armor perk. I would like to see its stats?!?
You can see any active effects by accessing the "magic" section of the menu, which is on the opposite side to items. Its in its own category called "active effects" near the bottom. In there you can see any effect currently active. Things like stoneflesh also add a glowy effect to your character while they are active, so you can see if they have expired or not.
Hows the voice acting? Are there any characters that stand-out as being particularly good?
BTW, thanks for taking the time to answer these questions <3
Seeing the phantom menace when I was 10 years old. Of course, I have different opinions of it now, but gawd that shit was awesome when I was 10.
And when that villager sounds suspiciously similar to the last 13 characters you have interacted with...
Unless the pre-load is up, I don't see the point in pre-ordering games.
If you had access to a suitable pc, yet you still bought the console version, I would question your value as a human being.
Use your keyboard!
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BWW's On This Day - November 22, 2014
by - Nov 22, 2014
Here are the Broadway, Off-Broadway and West End shows which opened on November 22 along with all of the upcoming show openings, closings and special events! (more...)
Centenary Stage Company Presents PETER PAN, 11/28-12/14
by BWW News Desk - Nov 22, 2014
Join Peter Pan, Wendy, Michael, and John in the high-flying timeless Broadway musical that will whisk you away to a place where dreams are born and no one ever grows up! On November 28th running through December 14th Centenary Stage Company will venture into "Neverland" for their holiday production of Peter Pan. (more...)
BWW Reviews: Young Singers Peddie, Dirksen, Block and Lowe Are No Longer Waiting to Join the Shining New Lights of Cabaret
by Billie Roe - Nov 22, 2014
Every year, despite a litany of warnings they come to the Big Apple with big dreams. Warnings like: You have to pay your dues. It's a tough business, kid. How are you going to survive? There's no such thing as an overnight success, yet still they come to be at the top of the heap, as Kander and Ebb so eloquently put it. The four young performers featured here haven't yet vaulted to the top of the cabaret heap, but they've certainly made their marks with excellent shows during 2014, while exhibiting the potential to get there. The spotlight is already shining on Chrysten Peddie, Angela Dirksen, Rembert Block, and Kristoffer Lowe. (more...)
Native American Consultant Talks Preserving the Integrity of PETER PAN LIVE!
by BWW News Desk - Nov 22, 2014
As BroadwayWorld.com previously reported, NBC has announced multiple song alterations for their upcoming live broadcast of Peter Pan, starring Allison Williams, Christopher Walker, and Christian Borle. Among the changes, NBC has replaced the song, 'Ugg-a-Wugg' with a 'more traditionally Native American' song, as Neil Meron said, with the help of Emmy Award-winning composer and Native American consultant Jerod Impichchaachaaha' Tate. (more...)
Photo Flash: First Look - Kelli O'Hara, Christian Borle & More in Costume for PETER PAN LIVE!
by BWW Special Coverage - Nov 21, 2014
Below, get a FIRST LOOK at the cast of NBC's Peter Pan LIVE! in costume! J.M. Barrie's classic musical comes to NBC on Thursday, Dec. 4 at 8 p.m. (ET/PT). (more...)
New Hampshire Theatre Project Portsmouth to Present Scene Study Performances, 12/5-6
by BWW News Desk - Nov 21, 2014
New Hampshire Theatre Project's Youth Repertory Company will present two mid-semester Scene Study performances on Friday & Saturday, December 5 & 6, at 7 pm. Admission is free, but reservations are highly recommended and donations are cheerfully accepted. (more...)
Campanilla y sus amigos llegan en diciembre a la Gran Vía
by Roberto Rodríguez - Nov 21, 2014
'Campanilla, el musical. El origen' se instalará a partir del 6 de diciembre en el Teatro Rialto para contarnos la historia de la famosa hada amiga de Peter Pan, junto a otros personajes creados por el novelista y dramaturgo escoces James Matthew Barrie. (more...)
Paris Peet to Star in A CHRISTMAS CAROL at Totem Pole Playhouse; Runs 12/11-21
by BWW News Desk - Nov 21, 2014
Totem Pole Playhouse has announced the casting of professional actors from New York and local area community theatre actors for their upcoming holiday presentation of A Christmas Carol at the Capitol Theatre in downtown Chambersburg. The production, which is being produced in association with the Chambersburg Community Theatre, will open December 11th and run through December 21st for ten performances. (more...)
Scoop: PETER PAN LIVE! on NBC - Saturday, December 13, 2014
by TV Scoop - Nov 21, 2014
Get all the scoop on Peter Pan LIVE!, airing on NBC on Saturday, December 13, 2014! (more...)
Scoop: PETER PAN LIVE! on NBC - Saturday, December 13, 2014
by TV Scoop - Nov 21, 2014
Get all the scoop on Peter Pan LIVE!, airing on NBC on Saturday, December 13, 2014! (more...)
Scoop: TODAY on NBC - Week of December 1, 2014
by TV Scoop - Nov 21, 2014
Get all the scoop on TODAY, airing on NBC for the week of December 1, 2014! (more...)
VIDEO: PETER PAN's Allison Williams Talks Co-Star Christopher Walken & More on Bravo
by TV News Desk - Nov 21, 2014
On last night's WATCH WHAT HAPPENS LIVE on Bravo, actress Allison Williams discussed her co-star in the upcoming "Peter Pan" television event, Christopher Walken (more...)
All Singing, All Dancing New THE MAKING OF PETER PAN LIVE! Promo
by Pat Cerasaro - Nov 20, 2014
Check out this cool new promo for THE MAKING OF Peter Pan LIVE! (more...)
Artwork for NBC's THE MAKING OF PETER PAN LIVE!, Airing 11/26
by TV News Desk - Nov 20, 2014
'The Making of Peter Pan Live!' (Wednesday, Nov. 26, 8 p.m. ET/PT) goes behind the scenes to give viewers an inside look at the incredible teamwork it takes to create 'Peter Pan Live!'. The special airs Thursday, Dec. 4, 8 p.m. (more...)
Ocean State Theatre Company to Present MEET ME IN ST. LOUIS, 12/3-28
by BWW News Desk - Nov 20, 2014
Ocean State Theatre Company (OSTC), currently celebrating its third season in its state-of-the-art theatre in Warwick, is proud to present the wonderful classic from the golden age of musical comedy, Meet Me in St. Louis. The popular family-friendly musical, with additional underwriting provided by Radisson Hotel Providence Airport, will run at Ocean State Theatre from December 3 - 28. (more...)
WAKE UP with BWW 11/20/14 - A DELICATE BALANCE, LITTLE DANCER, Menzel in Concert and More!
by Jessica Showers - Nov 20, 2014
Good morning, BroadwayWorld! Because we know all our readers eat, sleep and breathe Broadway, what could be better than waking up to it? Today's big news: John Lithgow and Glenn Close star in A DELICATE BALANCE, opening tonight on Broadway, LITTLE DANCER opens in D.C., Idina Menzel appears in an afternoon concert and more! (more...)
BWW Exclusive - Full Song List Revealed for PETER PAN LIVE! on NBC
by TV News Desk - Nov 20, 2014
BWW brings you an exclusive first look at the full song list for NBC's highly anticipated live broadcast of Peter Pan, airing Thursday December 4th at 8 p.m. (ET/PT). (more...)
A CHRISTMAS CAROL Returns to Colonial Theatre, 12/14-22
by BWW News Desk - Nov 20, 2014
Berkshire Theatre Group has announced the reprise of its annual community production of Charles Dickens' A Christmas Carol, adapted by Eric Hill and co-directed by Eric Hill and Travis G. Daly and presented for the fourth time at The Colonial Theatre in Pittsfield. This year's production includes 30 talented young Berkshire county actors many of whom are returning to the Colonial Theatre and some who are performing for the first time. (more...)
NBC's THE MAKING OF PETER PAN LIVE! to Give Viewers Behind-the-Scenes Look, 11/26
by TV News Desk - Nov 19, 2014
From Peacock Productions, this hourlong special will go behind the scenes to give viewers an inside look at the incredible teamwork it takes to create the event 'Peter Pan Live' (more...)
PETER PAN LIVE's Allison Williams Says Some Viewers Will 'Hate On It - So Screw 'Em!'
by TV News Desk - Nov 19, 2014
The cast and creative team of NBC's highly anticipated live broadcast of the classic musical Peter Pan LIVE share their thoughts, just weeks before the upcoming December 4th telecast. (more...)
The Playhouse's 4th Annual Holiday Special Presentation Set for 12/5-6
by BWW News Desk - Nov 19, 2014
Playhouse Producing Artistic Director Chuck Tobin today announced the Playhouse's fourth annual holiday benefit show to raise funds for the non-profit theater company's 2015 summer season. (more...)
'A Brand New Family Classic' PETER PAN LIVE! Promo With Williams, Walken, O'Hara & More
by Pat Cerasaro - Nov 19, 2014
An attention-grabbing new promo for Peter Pan LIVE! (more...)
Pioneer Theatre Company to Present PETER AND THE STARCATCHER, 12/5-20
by BWW News Desk - Nov 19, 2014
Pioneer Theatre Company presents the Tony Award-winning play Peter and the Starcatcher, December 5 through December 20, 2014. (more...)
The Heights Players Add Second Saturday Performance of PETER PAN
by BWW News Desk - Nov 19, 2014
The Heights Players Theater for Children is happy to announce that it is adding a second performance of Peter Pan this Saturday, due to popular demand. (more...)
WAKE UP with BWW 11/19/14 - ALLEGRO, THE UNDERCLASSMAN, Mientus in LES MIZ and More!
by Jessica Showers - Nov 19, 2014
Good morning, BroadwayWorld! Because we know all our readers eat, sleep and breathe Broadway, what could be better than waking up to it? Today's big news: ALLEGRO and THE UNDERCLASSMAN open off-Broadway, Andy Mientus returns to LES MIZ and more! (more...)
'The Showtune Mosh Pit' for November 19th, 2014
by Paul W. Thompson - Nov 19, 2014
The latest in unauthorized gossip and buzz from the heart of Chicago's showtune video bars, and musical theater news from Chicago to Broadway. 'The Grinch' opens, Fox Valley bookends Christmas, new shows 'A Christmas Memory' and 'Christmas On The Air,' 'It's A Wonderful Life' times three, plus 'Nutcracker,' 'Nut Cracking,' 'Mary Poppins' and the latest on 'Peter Pan Live!' (more...)
Melissa McCarthy to Star in New TINKER BELL Movie
by Movies News Desk - Nov 19, 2014
Deadline writes that Melissa McCarthy will star as Peter Pan's plucky sidekick fairy Tinker Bell in a new comedy-adventure film directed by Shawn Levy from a script by Nicholas Stoller. (more...)
ATC's THE EVENTS Coming to NYTW
by BWW News Desk - Nov 19, 2014
Since it premiered at The Traverse Theatre in August 2013, ATC's production of The Events written by David Greig and directed by Ramin Gray has picked up a raft of awards, been selected as The Guardian's Best Theatre Production of 2013, has sold out two runs at The Young Vic, has toured nationally and internationally and has been staged in German and Norwegian at Schauspielhaus Vienna and Brageteatret in Drammen. In 2015 it will take another step on this extraordinary journey, as the production premieres in New York at the prestigious New York Theatre Workshop. Neve McIntosh who created the role of Claire returns to the production of the New York run and will be joined by Clifford Samuel who has played The Boy throughout 2014. (more...)
THE SOUND OF MUSIC NUNS' CHRISTMAS PARTY to Play 54 Below Next Month
by BWW News Desk - Nov 19, 2014
54 BELOW, Broadway's Supper Club, presents 'The Sound Of Music Nuns' Christmas Party' on December 12, 2014 at 9:30 pm. It's been one year since you saw them on national TV in THE SOUND OF MUSIC LIVE!, but these sisters have reunited and are hosting the season's best and most irreverent Christmas party! Celebrate the season at 54 Below with an evening of holiday spirit, majestic choral singing and hilarious storytelling from some of the finest female voices on Broadway. Featuring Cameron Adams, Wendi Bergamini, Catherine Brunell, Paula Leggett Chase, Margot de La Barre, Rayanne Gonzales, Joy Hermalyn, Leah Horowitz, Autumn Hurlbert, Andrea Jones-Sojola, Jessica Molaskey, Sydney Morton, Elena Shaddow, Laura Shoop, Georgia Stitt and Rema Webb. (more...)
HONEYMOON IN VEGAS, Cast of ANNIE Movie & More Added to Macy's Day Parade Lineup; Final List Announced!
by BWW News Desk - Nov 19, 2014
Macy's today announced the final lineup of star performances for the 88th Annual Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade®. On Thursday, Nov. 27, Broadway's best shows will be joined by the new musical comedy Honeymoon in Vegas and the float line up of performers will see the addition of pop rockers American Authors and country duo Dan + Shay. Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade airs on NBC-TV, 9 a.m. - noon in all time zones. (more...)
Pittsburgh CLO Sets Cast for 2015 Production of BOEING BOEING!
by BWW News Desk - Nov 19, 2014
Pittsburgh CLO has announced the cast of the Tony Award-winning Broadway hit comedy, BOEING BOEING, which will run February 5 - April 26 at the CLO Cabaret. (more...)
Matthew Martin's New Adaptation of PETER PAN Continues 11/22 with The Heights Players
by BWW News Desk - Nov 18, 2014
The Heights Players Theater for Children is taking flight for two Saturday afternoons this November, as it presents an original adaptation of Peter Pan, featuring original music by the co-author of Ghostlight, Matthew Martin. (more...)
VIDEO: PETER PAN's Allison Williams Gives Jimmy Fallon Flying Lesson on TONIGHT!
by TV News Desk - Nov 18, 2014
On last night's TONIGHT SHOW, Jimmy Fallon talked to Allison Williams about starring as the title character in NBC's upcoming Peter Pan Live. Later, the host gets a flying lesson from the star. (more...)
Amanda Green, Neil Meron Talk New Songs, Expanded Lyrics for PETER PAN LIVE!
by TV News Desk - Nov 18, 2014
Amanda Green and Peter Pan LIVE executive producer Neil Meron chat about expanding the lyrics to classic songs from the musical. (more...)
BWW Reviews: FIDDLER ON THE ROOF at Arena Stage - The Tradition Lives On
by Charles Shubow - Nov 18, 2014
Arena Stage honors librettist Sheldon Harnick celebrating FIDDLER'S 50TH Anniversary. (more...)
AUDIO: PETER PAN LIVE! Gets Three Newly Adapted Songs- Listen to the Originals!
by BWW News Desk - Nov 18, 2014
As BroadwayWorld previously reported: in a new interview with Entertainment Weekly, Broadway composer Amanda Green and Peter Pan LIVE executive producer Neil Meron chat about expanding the lyrics to classic songs such as 'I Won't Grow Up' and 'I'm Flying,' for NBC's upcoming live broadcast of the musical classic. Green is the daughter of one of Peter Pan's original lyricists, Adolph Green, and has an impressive list of theater credits of her own, including the recent Broadway musical 'Hands On a Hardbody.' Commenting on choosing Green for the job of adding new lyrics to familiar numbers, Meron explains, 'It fleshed out the show. It deepened the characters, it kind of drove plot more-which good songs do in musicals. Amanda was just wonderful in capturing the spirit of her father and [Green's partner] Betty Comden.' (more...)
ZACH Theatre Announces PETER AND THE STARCATCHER Cast
by BWW News Desk - Nov 18, 2014
ZACH Theatre kicks off the new year with Peter and the Starcatcher on January 29, 2015. The five-time Tony Award-winning play runs until March 1, 2015 at the Topfer Theatre. The play is written by Rick Elise and based upon the novel of the same name by Dave Barry and Ridley Pearson. ZACH Theatre will have Director Michael Baron, Artistic Director of Oklahoma City's Lyric Theatre, back for his first time since directing the critically acclaimed Spring Awakening here in 2011. (more...)
BROADWAY SESSIONS to Showcase Actor/Singer/Songwriters This Week
by BWW News Desk - Nov 18, 2014
This Thursday, November 20th, Broadway Sessions welcomes Broadway actors who are also Singer/Songwriters to perform their original music. Artists scheduled to perform include Josh Franklin, Janet Krupin, Blake Whyte, John Arthur Greene, F. Michael Haynie and more. (more...)
Southampton's Nuffield Announces Complete Cast of THE SNOW QUEEN
by BWW News Desk - Nov 17, 2014
This Christmas Southampton's Nuffield is producing an enchanting new version of Hans Christian Andersen's classic fairy tale The Snow Queen, featuring new songs, magical staging and a delightfully humorous retelling of this timeless story that will melt your heart. The adaptation is written by acclaimed TV comedy writer, Georgia Pritchett (The Thick of It, Veep, Miranda), with music composed by Dougal Irvine. Sarah Tipple (Dirty Dancing: The Musical, West End and UK Tour), directs the production. (more...)
BWW Reviews: Dynamic Cast Brings Magic and Laughs in Le Petit's PETER AND THE STARCATCHER
by Heidi Scheuermann - Nov 17, 2014
"There it is, Wendy. Second star to the right, and straight on 'til morning!" The most famous directions in the world. Is there a person on the planet who doesn't know how to get to Neverland? Better yet, is there a person on the planet who doesn't wish he or she could go to Neverland? How exciting to go on wild adventures, to fight with pirates, to meet a mix of magical creatures, to never grow up, and most importantly, to fly! This weekend at Le Petit Theatre audiences were asked to leave behind all sense of reality and join Molly Aster on her most important mission. (more...)
Brand New 'Television Event Of The Season' PETER PAN LIVE! Promo
by Pat Cerasaro - Nov 16, 2014
A splashy new promo for Peter Pan LIVE! (more...)
Top Stories You Missed on BWW This Weekend - 11/15-11/16/2014
by - Nov 16, 2014
Hottest Articles on BroadwayWorld.com from this weekend Sunday, November 16, 2014 - Sunday, November 16, 2014. (more...)
This Just in! Carolee Carmello to Reprise Role in FINDING NEVERLAND on Broadway
by BWW News Desk - Nov 15, 2014
We reported earlier this week that Laura Michelle Kelly was headed back to Broadway in Finding Neverland, via a NY Times scoop. Today, producer Harvey Weinstein confirmed that Olivier Award winner Laura Michelle Kelly (Mary Poppins) and three-time Tony® Award-nominee Carolee Carmello (Parade), who played the roles of Sylvia Llewelyn Davis and Madame du Maurier, respectively, in Finding Neverland when it premiered at the American Repertory Theatre earlier this year, will reprise their roles on Broadway. (more...)
Photo Flash: Captain Hook's Cannons & More Revealed from Set of NBC's PETER PAN LIVE!
by TV News Desk - Nov 14, 2014
Neil Meron, producer of NBC's highly anticipated upcoming live broadcast of Peter Pan LIVE turned to Twitter today to share behind-the-scenes photos from the set of the production. (more...)
TAMBURLAINE, PARTS I and II Opens this Sunday at Theatre for a New Audience
by BWW News Desk - Nov 14, 2014
Christopher Marlowe's 1587 epic Tamburlaine, Parts I and II, edited and directed by Olivier Award-winner Michael Boyd and starring John Douglas Thompson, opens Sunday, November 16, at 1:00pm at Theatre for a New Audience, Polonsky Shakespeare Center, 262 Ashland Place. (more...)
A CHRISTMAS CAROL Runs 11/28-12/21 at Houston Family Arts Center
by BWW News Desk - Nov 14, 2014
Nineteenth-century London comes to life when Tiny Tim, Bob Cratchit, and, of course, Ebenezer Scrooge take you on a fantastical journey through Christmas Past, Present, and Future. Scrooge's story of redemption remains as powerful and uplifting as ever. Adapted for the stage by Joseph Hanreddy and Edward Morgan, A CHRISTMAS CAROL runs November 28 - December 21 at Houston Family Arts Center. (more...)
Scoop: PETER PAN LIVE! on NBC - Thursday, December 4, 2014
by TV Scoop - Nov 14, 2014
Get all the scoop on Peter Pan LIVE!, airing on NBC on Thursday, December 4, 2014! (more...)
Dance for a Chance to Join NBC's PETER PAN LIVE! Cast in Alex G's New Music Video
by TV News Desk - Nov 14, 2014
Want to star in a music video alongside the cast of NBC's Peter Pan Live!, singer/songwriter Alex G., and other surprise guests? Dance your heart out to a brand new rendition of the Peter Pan classic, 'I Won't Grow Up' created by DJ Tay James. (more...)
Scoop: MACY'S THANKSGIVING DAY PARADE on NBC - Thursday, November 27, 2014
by TV Scoop - Nov 13, 2014
Get all the scoop on MACY'S THANKSGIVING DAY PARADE, airing on NBC on Thursday, November 27, 2014! (more...)
Scoop: PETER PAN LIVE! on NBC - Thursday, December 4, 2014
by TV Scoop - Nov 13, 2014
Get all the scoop on Peter Pan LIVE!, airing on NBC on Thursday, December 4, 2014! (more...)


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From Ukraine, Syria and Gaza to the centenary of the First World War in 2014, news junkies and students of history cannot help but wonder if war is a perpetual feature of civilization. German philosopher Immanuel Kant wondered as much in a 1795 essay entitled Perpetual Peace, concluding that citizens of a democratic republic are less likely to support their government in a war because "this would mean calling down on themselves all the miseries of war." Ever since, the "democratic peace theory" has had its supporters. Rutgers University political scientist Jack Levy, in a 1989 essay on "The Causes of War," reasoned that the "absence of war between democratic states comes as close as anything we have to an empirical law in international relations." Skeptics point out such exceptions as the Greek and Punic wars, the War of 1812, the U.S. Civil War, the India-Pakistan wars and the Israel-Lebanon War. Who is right? Can science answer the question?
In their 2001 book Triangulating Peace, political scientists Bruce Russett and John Oneal employed a multiple logistic regression model on data from the Correlates of War Project that recorded 2,300 militarized interstate disputes between 1816 and 2001. They assigned each country a democracy score between 1 and 10, based on the Polity Project, which measures how competitive its political process is, as well as the fairness of its elections, checks and balances of power, transparency, and so on. The researchers found that when two countries score high on the Polity scale, disputes between them decrease by 50 percent, but when one country was either a low-scoring democracy or an autocracy, it doubled the chance of a quarrel between them.
Kant also suggested that international trade (economic interdependency) and membership in international communities (transparency and accountability) reduce the likelihood of conflict. So Russett and Oneal included in their model data on the amount of trade between nations and found that countries that depended more on trade in a given year were less likely to have a militarized dispute in the subsequent year. They also counted the number of International Governmental Organizations (IGOs) that every pair of nations jointly belonged to and ran a regression analysis with democracy and trade scores. Overall, democracy, trade and membership in IGOs (the "triangle" of their title) all favor peace, and if a pair of countries are in the top 10th of the scale on all three variables, they are 83 percent less likely than an average pair of countries to have a militarized dispute in a given year.
How has the democratic peace theory held up since 2001? With all the conflict around the world, it seems like peace is on the rocks. But anecdotes are not data. In a 2014 special issue of the Journal of Peace Research, Uppsala University political scientist Håvard Hegre reassessed all the evidence on "Democracy and Armed Conflict." He stated that "the empirical finding that pairs of democratic states have a lower risk of interstate conflict than other pairs holds up, as does the conclusion that consolidated democracies have less conflict than semi-democracies." Hegre is skeptical that economic interdependence alone can keep countries from going to war—the "Golden Arches Theory of Conflict Prevention" popularized by Thomas Friedman's observation that no two countries with McDonald's fight—unless their economies are in democratic nations. He wonders, reasonably, if there might be some other underlying factor that explains both democracy and peace but does not suggest what that might be. I propose human nature itself and our propensity to prefer the elements of democracy. Peace is a pleasant by-product.
Whatever the deeper cause may be the long-term trends are encouraging. According to Freedom House, there were no electoral democracies (with universal suffrage) in 1900, 69 in 1990, and 122 in 2014—63 percent of the 195 countries in the world. That's moral progress. The other 38 percent—particularly the theocratic autocracies desirous of thermonuclear weapons and bent on bringing about Armageddon—means we must remain vigilant. Otherwise we run the risk that Kant's perpetual peace will dissolve into the source of his essay title inspiration: an innkeeper's sign featuring a cemetery. This is not the type of perpetual peace toward which most sentient beings strive.]]>
Often I am asked if I have ever encountered something that I could not explain. What my interlocutors have in mind are not bewildering enigmas such as consciousness or U.S. foreign policy but anomalous and mystifying events that suggest the existence of the paranormal or supernatural. My answer is: yes, now I have.
The event took place on June 25, 2014. On that day I married Jennifer Graf, from Köln, Germany. She had been raised by her mom; her grandfather, Walter, was the closest father figure she had growing up, but he died when she was 16. In shipping her belongings to my home before the wedding, most of the boxes were damaged and several precious heirlooms lost, including her grandfather's binoculars. His 1978 Philips 070 transistor radio arrived safely, so I set out to bring it back to life after decades of muteness. I put in new batteries and opened it up to see if there were any loose connections to solder. I even tried "percussive maintenance," said to work on such devices—smacking it sharply against a hard surface. Silence. We gave up and put it at the back of a desk drawer in our bedroom.
Three months later, after affixing the necessary signatures to our marriage license at the Beverly Hills courthouse, we returned home, and in the presence of my family said our vows and exchanged rings. Being 9,000 kilometers from family, friends and home, Jennifer was feeling amiss and lonely. She wished her grandfather were there to give her away. She whispered that she wanted to say something to me alone, so we excused ourselves to the back of the house where we could hear music playing in the bedroom. We don't have a music system there, so we searched for laptops and iPhones and even opened the back door to check if the neighbors were playing music. We followed the sound to the printer on the desk, wondering— absurdly—if this combined printer/scanner/fax machine also included a radio. Nope.
At that moment Jennifer shot me a look I haven't seen since the supernatural thriller The Exorcist; startled audiences. "That can't be what I think it is, can it?" she said. She opened the desk drawer and pulled out her grandfather's transistor radio, out of which a romantic love song wafted. We sat in stunned silence for minutes. "My grandfather is here with us," Jennifer said, tearfully. "I'm not alone."
Shortly thereafter we returned to our guests with the radio playing as I recounted the backstory. My daughter, Devin, who came out of her bedroom just before the ceremony began, added, "I heard the music coming from your room just as you were about to start." The odd thing is that we were there getting ready just minutes before that time, sans music.
Later that night we fell asleep to the sound of classical music emanating from Walter's radio. Fittingly, it stopped working the next day and has remained silent ever since. What does this mean? Had it happened to someone else I might suggest a chance electrical anomaly and the law of large numbers as an explanation—with billions of people having billions of experiences every day, there's bound to be a handful of extremely unlikely events that stand out in their timing and meaning. In any case, such anecdotes do not constitute scientific evidence that the dead survive or that they can communicate with us via electronic equipment.
Jennifer is as skeptical as I am when it comes to paranormal and supernatural phenomena. Yet the eerie conjunction of these deeply evocative events gave her the distinct feeling that her grandfather was there and that the music was his gift of approval. I have to admit, it rocked me back on my heels and shook my skepticism to its core as well. I savored the experience more than the explanation.
The emotional interpretations of such anomalous events grant them significance regardless of their causal account. And if we are to take seriously the scientific credo to keep an open mind and remain agnostic when the evidence is indecisive or the riddle unsolved, we should not shut the doors of perception when they may be opened to us to marvel in the mysterious.]]>
When I purchased my latest vehicle, I was astonished to get the license plate 6NWL485. What are the chances that I would get that particular configuration? Before I received it, the odds would have been one in 175,760,000. (The total number of letters to the power of the number of letters on the plate times the total number of digits to the power of the number of digits on the plate: 263 x 104). After the fact, however, the probability is one.
This is what Pomona College economist Gary Smith calls the "survivor bias," which he highlights as one of many statistically related cognitive biases in his deeply insightful book Standard Deviations (Overlook, 2014). Smith illustrates the effect with a playing card hand of three of clubs, eights of clubs, eight of diamonds, queen of hearts and ace of spades. The odds of that particular configuration are about three million to one, but Smith says, "After I look at the cards, the probability of having these five cards is 1, not 1 in 3 million."
The conclusion seems obvious once you think about it, but most of us are regularly fooled by the survivor bias. Consider the plethora of business books readily available in airport bookstalls that feature the most successful companies. Smith analyzes two of the best sellers in the genre. In his 2001 book Good to Great (more than four million copies sold), Jim Collins culled 11 companies out of 1,435 whose stock beat the market average over a 40-year time span and then searched for shared characteristics among them that he believed accounted for their success. Instead, Smith says, Collins should have started with a list of companies at the beginning of the test period and then used "plausible criteria to select eleven companies predicted to do better than the rest. These criteria must be applied in an objective way, without peeking at how the companies did over the next forty years. It is not fair or meaningful to predict which companies will do well after looking at which companies did well! Those are not predictions, just history." In fact, Smith notes, from 2001 through 2012 the stock of six of Collins's 11 "great" companies did worse than the overall stock market, meaning that this system of post hoc analysis is fundamentally flawed.
Smith found a similar problem with the 1982 book In Search of Excellence (more three million copies sold), in which Tom Peters and Robert Waterman identified eight common attributes of 43 "excellent" companies. Since then, Smith points out, of the 35 companies with publicly traded stocks, 20 have done worse than the market average.
The survivor bias was evident in the reception of Walter Isaacson's best-selling biography of Steve Jobs, as readers scrambled to understand what made the mercurial genius so successful. Want to be the next Steve Jobs and create the next Apple Computers? Drop out of college and start a business with your buddy in the garage of your parents' home. How many people have followed the Jobs model and failed? Who knows? No one writes books about them and their unsuccessful companies. But venture capitalists (VCs) have data on the probability of a garage start-up becoming the Next Big Thing, and here the survivor bias is of a different sort.
David Cowan of Bessemer Venture Partners in Menlo Park, Calif., told me in an e-mail: "For garage-dwelling entrepreneurs to crack the 1% wealth threshold in America, their path almost always involves raising venture capital and then getting their start-up to an initial public offering (IPO) or a large acquisition by another company. If their garage is situated in Silicon Valley, they might get to pitch as many as 15 VCs, but VCs hear 200 pitches for every one we fund, so perhaps 1 in 13 start-ups get VC, and still they face long odds from there. According to figures that the National Venture Capital Association diligently collects through primary research and publishes on their Web site, last year was somewhat typical in that 1,334 start-ups got funded, but only 13% as many achieved an IPO (81 last year) or an acquisition large enough to warrant a public disclosure of the price (95 last year). So for every wealthy start-up founder, there are 100 other entrepreneurs who end up with only a cluttered garage."
Surviving those statistical odds is rare indeed.]]>
In the year 2393 a historian in the Second People's Republic of China penned a book about how scientists, economists and politicians living in the 21st century failed to act on the solid science they had that gave clear warnings of the climate catastrophe ahead. As a result, the world experienced the Great Collapse of 2093, bringing an end to Western civilization.
So speculate historians of science Naomi Oreskes of Harvard University and Erik Conway of the California Institute of Technology in their book The Collapse of Western Civilization: A View from the Future (Columbia University Press, 2014), a short scientific- historical fantasy. During the second half of the 20th century— the "Period of the Penumbra"—a shadow of anti-intellectualism "fell over the once-Enlightened techno-scientific nations of the Western world…preventing them from acting on the scientific knowledge available at the time and condemning their successors to the inundation and desertification of the late twenty-first and twenty-second centuries."
Why the failure to act? The authors' future historian posits several causes: blind optimism; religion; reductionism that prevented scientists from understanding holistic systems; disciplinary narrowness that restricted cross-field communication between scientists; adherence to avoiding type I errors (believing a hypothesis is real when it isn't) over type II errors (not believing a hypothesis is real when it is); and insistence on a 95 percent confidence limit for statistical significance that caused scientists to dismiss as unproved climate effects caused by warmer weather, such as tornadoes and hurricanes. Between 1751 and 2012 more than 365 billion metric tons of carbon was released into the atmosphere, causing temperatures to increase, the historian notes. Another century of warming devastated the populations of Australia and Africa, and those of Europe, Asia and North America had to move inland from flooded coastal regions.
This science-historical fantasy is thought-provoking, but is it prescient? Global warming is, of course, real and caused by human activity. But predicting how much warmer it is going to get and what the consequences will be is extremely difficult because estimates include error bars that grow wider the further out the models run. The precautionary principle states that we should act, just in case. But act on what? Climate change is not our only problem, and we do not have unlimited resources. Which problem should we tackle and how much should we spend?
In the second edition (2014) of his book How to Spend $75 Billion to Make the World a Better Place, Bjørn Lomborg reports the findings of a study sponsored by his Copenhagen Consensus Center 2012 project in which more than 50 economists evaluated 39 proposals on how best to solve such problems as armed conflicts, natural disasters, hunger, disease, education and climate change. Climate change barely rated a mention in the top 10, which included, in order, malnutrition interventions, malaria treatment, childhood immunization, deworming of schoolchildren, tuberculosis treatment, research and development to increase crop yields, early-warning systems for natural disasters, hepatitis B immunization, and low-cost drugs for acute heart attack. Number 12 was R&D for geoengineering solutions to climate change, and number 17 was R&D for green energy technologies. The rest of the top 30 were related to disease, water and sanitation, biodiversity, hunger, education, population growth and natural disasters.
The ranking is based on a cost-benefit analysis. For example, an investment of $300 million "would prevent the deaths of 300,000 children, if it were used to strengthen the Global Fund's malaria-financing mechanism." Another $300 million would deworm 300 million children, and $122 million would lead to total hepatitis B vaccine coverage and thereby prevent another 150,000 annual deaths. Low-cost drugs to treat acute heart disease would cost just $200 million and save 300,000 people.
This doesn't mean we shouldn't do more about climate change. But what? Both books posit technological solutions: Lomborg's Copenhagen experts recommend spending $1 billion for research on planet-cooling geoengineering technologies; Oreskes and Conway have humanity saved by the creation in 2090 of a lichenized fungus that consumes atmospheric carbon dioxide. Whatever we do about climate, we should recognize that the world has many problems. If you are malnourished and diseased, what the climate will be like at the end of the century is not a high priority. Given limited resources, we should not let ourselves be swept away by the apocalyptic fear generated by any one threat.]]>
One of the best-selling books of 2014 is Capital in the Twenty-First Century by French economist Thomas Piketty, a 696-page doorstop tome on economic history. Why is a data-heavy treatise from the "dismal science" so appealing? Because it is about income inequality and immobility, which in a December 2013 speech President Barack Obama called "the defining challenge of our time," concluding that it poses "a fundamental threat to the American dream." But does it? Maybe not.
The rich are getting richer, as Brookings Institution economist Gary Burtless found by analyzing tax data from the Congressional Budget Office for after-tax income trends from 1979 through 2010 (including government assistance). The top-fifth income earners in the U.S. increased their share of the national income from 43 percent in 1979 to 48 percent in 2010, and the top 1 percent increased their share of the pie from 8 percent in 1979 to 13 percent in 2010. But note what has not happened: the rest have not gotten poorer. They've gotten richer: the income of the other quintiles increased by 49, 37, 36 and 45 percent, respectively.
The pie metaphor is deceptive because a pie is of a fixed size such that if your slice is larger, then someone else's is smaller. But economies grow, and the pie gets larger such that you and I can both get a larger slice compared with the slices we got from last year's pie, even if your slice increase is relatively larger than mine. A report released by the Federal Reserve in early 2014, for example, noted that the overall wealth of Americans hit the highest level ever, with the net worth of U.S. households rising 14 percent in 2013, which is an increase of almost $10 trillion to an almost unimaginable $80.7 trillion, the most ever recorded by the Fed. Of course, on a planet with finite resources such an expansion cannot continue indefinitely, but historically capital and wealth production shifts as industries change from, say, farming and agriculture to coal and steel to information and services.
What about income mobility, which President Obama also identified as a problem? Writing in the National Tax Journal, economists Gerald Auten and Geoffrey Gee analyzed individual income tax returns between 1987–1996 and 1996– 2005 and found that for individuals age 25 and up, "over half of taxpayers moved to a different income quintile and that roughly half of taxpayers who began in the bottom income quintile moved up to a higher income group by the end of each period" and that "those with the very highest incomes in the base year were more likely [than those in other quintiles] to drop to a lower income group." In fact, they found that "60 percent of those in the top 1 percent in the beginning year of each period had dropped to a lower centile by the 10th year. Fewer than one fourth of the individuals in the top 1/100th percent in 1996 remained in that group in 2005." In a follow-up study that included income data through 2010, the economists found that "approximately half of taxpayers in the first and fifth quintile remained in the same quintile 20 years later. About one-fourth of those in the bottom moved up one quintile, while 4.6 percent moved to the top quintile."
One reason for the controversy is that people overestimate differences between the rich and poor. In a 2013 study published in Psychological Science entitled "Better Off Than We Know," St. Louis University psychologist John R. Chambers and his colleagues found that most people estimate that the richest 20 percent make 31 times more than the poorest 20 percent (it is 15.5 times), and they believe that the average annual income of the richest 20 percent of Americans is $2 million, whereas in fact it is $169,000, a perceptual difference of nearly 12 times. "Almost all of our study participants," the authors concluded, "grossly underestimated Americans' average household incomes and overestimated the level of income inequality."
So both income inequality and social mobility, though not as ideal as we would like them to be in the land of equal opportunity, are not as large and immobile as most of us perceive them.]]>
When I was in elementary school in the early 1960s, we were periodically put through "duck and cover" drills under the risibly ridiculous fantasy that our flimsy wooden desks would protect us from a thermonuclear detonation over Los Angeles. When I was an undergraduate at Pepperdine University in 1974, the father of the hydrogen bomb, Edward Teller, spoke at our campus about the effectiveness of mutual assured destruction (MAD) to deter war. He said that by stockpiling many weapons neither side has anything to gain by initiating a first strike because of the retaliatory capability of both to send the other back to the Paleolithic.
So far MAD has worked. But as Eric Schlosser reveals in his riveting 2013 book Command and Control, there have been dozens of close calls, from the Cuban missile crisis to the Titan II missile explosion in Damascus, Ark. And popular films such as Stanley Kubrick's 1964 Dr. Strangelove have played out how it could all go terribly wrong, as when General Jack D. Ripper becomes unhinged at the thought of a "Communist conspiracy to sap and impurify all of our precious bodily fluids" and orders a nuclear first strike against the Soviet Union.
A deterrence strategy like MAD is not a long-term sustainable solution because of escalation, accidents and crazies, and efforts have been made over the past two decades to reduce the world's stockpiles, from a peak of around 70,000 in 1986 to about 17,300 today, only 4,200 of which are operationally active nuclear warheads. Can we get to "nuclear zero"?
The original cold warrior himself, Ronald Reagan, thought we could. He considered nuclear weapons to be "totally irrational, totally inhumane, good for nothing but killing, possibly destructive of life on earth and civilization." Also calling for "a world free of nuclear weapons" are such cold warriors as former secretaries of state Henry Kissinger and George Shultz, former secretary of defense William Perry and former senator Sam Nunn of Georgia in, of all places, the Wall Street Journal. The movement Global Zero has charted a path to reach that goal by 2030. General James E. Cartwright, formerly vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, says that the U.S. and Russia could reduce their nuclear arsenals to 900 weapons each and still maintain a deterrence peace until, later, they reach zero through diplomatic means. It's worth noting that 185 of the world's 194 countries (95 percent) are doing just fine without nuclear weapons, and more nations have started and abandoned nuclear weapons programs than started and completed them. This is encouraging, but is it fail-safe?
To find out, I audited a class called Perspectives on War and Peace at Claremont Graduate University, taught by political scientist Jacek Kugler. His answer is no, for these reasons: One, some states that have nukes, such as North Korea, are unpredictable. Two, rogue states want nukes. Three, states waging conventional wars might escalate to using nukes. Four, if terrorists get nukes, they'll use them. Five, the taboo against using nuclear weapons has not yet expanded into a taboo against owning them, and so the danger of accidents or unhinged leaders remains. And six, the nuclear genie of how to make an atomic bomb is out of the bottle, which means other nations or terrorists can obtain them and destabilize deterrence.
Kugler thinks we can have "regional zero"—nuclear-free zones such as Latin America and Australia—provided the largest nuclear powers (the U.S., Russia, China and the European Union) agree to provide a secure response, which none can veto, to any preemptive use of nuclear weapons by rogue states. Even then, nonstate entities such as terrorist groups may be able to purchase fissile material on the black market, and if they do there is nothing to deter them because many look forward to a martyr's death.
With the ongoing terrorist threat and the lack of trust between nuclear nations (Russia comes to mind), nuclear zero is not yet in the cards. But if we continue to reduce the size of the global stockpile, reinforce the "no first use" policy, amp up the taboo against owning nukes, guard all fissile material, increase economic interdependency and spread democracy, we can inch our way to global security.]]>
On the platform of a subway station, a woman and two men are talking a few feet away from the open track pit. Without warning, one of the men shoves the woman. She staggers backward toward the edge. The other man reaches out to catch her, but he is too late, and down she goes onto the tracks. In an instant, he reacts. He turns on his heels and coldcocks the culprit. It is a magnificent roundhouse to the face that snaps the wrongdoer's head back. Satisfied with this act of revenge, he turns, hesitates and dashes over to pull the woman to safety. He reassures her, then takes off after the malefactor, who has beat a hasty retreat. The entire incident takes 20 seconds, and you can see it yourself on YouTube (at the 1:47 mark).
In that moment—too brief for rational calculation—a conflict of pure emotionality unfolds between rescue and revenge, helping and hurting. In a flash, two neural networks in the rescuer's brain are engaged to act: help a fellow human in trouble or punish the perpetrator. What is a moral primate to do? In this case, because no train was coming, he could afford that problematic first choice. Rescue is sweet but so is revenge.
This vignette illustrates our multifaceted moral nature, which evolved to solve several problems at once in our ancestral environment: be nice to those who help us and our kin and kind and punish those who hurt us and our kin and kind. Evidence that these moral emotions are deeply entrenched in human nature may be found in a series of experiments with babies, brilliantly synthesized in the book Just Babies: The Origins of Good and Evil (Crown, 2013) by Yale University psychologist Paul Bloom. Testing the theory that we have an innate moral sense, as proposed by such Enlightenment thinkers as Adam Smith and Thomas Jefferson, Bloom provides experimental evidence that "our natural endowments" include "a moral sense—some capacity to distinguish between kind and cruel actions; empathy and compassion—suffering at the pain of those around us and the wish to make this pain go away; a rudimentary sense of fairness—a tendency to favor equal divisions of resources; a rudimentary sense of justice—a desire to see good actions rewarded and bad actions punished."
In Bloom's laboratory, a one-year-old baby watched puppets enact a morality play. One puppet rolled a ball to a second puppet, who passed the ball back. The first puppet then rolled the ball to a different puppet, who ran off with the ball. The baby was next given a choice between taking a treat away from the "nice" puppet or the "naughty" one. As Bloom predicted, the infant removed the treat from the naughty puppet—which is what most babies do in this experiment. But for this little moralist, removing a positive reinforcement (the treat) was not enough. "The boy then leaned over and smacked this puppet on the head," Bloom recounts. In his inchoate moral mind, punishment was called for.
There are numerous permutations on this research paradigm— such as a puppet trying to roll a ball up a ramp, for which another puppet either helps or hinders it. Time and again, the moral sense of right (preferring helping puppets) and wrong (abjuring hurting puppets) emerges in people between three and 10 months of age, far too early to attribute to learning and culture. Morality, Bloom concludes, "entails certain feelings and motivations, such as a desire to help others in need, compassion for those in pain, anger toward the cruel, and guilt and pride about our own shameful and kind actions," which supports what I saw in the video vignette. Society's laws and customs can turn the moral dials up or down, of course, but nature endowed us with the dials in the first place. This is why the constitutions of our nations should be grounded in the constitution of our nature.]]>


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Home > News > World
Wednesday July 30, 2014 MYT 12:35:06 AM
Wednesday July 30, 2014 MYT 12:36:14 AM
BERLIN (Reuters) - Major airlines are taking differing stances to flying over Iraq, reflecting the piecemeal approach airlines currently take to flying over conflict zones and ahead of an international meeting of industry representatives to discuss the issue.
Airlines have been rethinking flight routes since the downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17, killing all 298 people on board, earlier this month over a rebel-held area of eastern Ukraine.
Some carriers temporarily suspended flights to Israel amid hostilities between Israel and the militant group Hamas.
Air France-KLM, Britain's Virgin Atlantic [VA.UL], Germany's Air Berlin and Poland's LOT said on Tuesday they were not flying over Iraqi airspace for security reasons, a day after Emirates Airline said it was avoiding the area.
Meanwhile, Lufthansa said it had decided to avoid certain areas of Iraq but was sticking to frequently used flight routes.
Abu Dhabi-based Etihad said it was still flying to and over Iraq, while Qantas is also continuing to fly over the country, according to Australian media.
"There is no evidence that either the capability or the intent exists to target aircraft overflying Iraq, by either side of the current conflict in Iraq," Etihad said in a statement.
"The nature of the current security environment in Iraq is significantly different than in the Ukraine."
At present, airlines make decisions on routes based on information from governments and each country's air traffic control authorities.
The U.N. agency, the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), has invited the heads of the airline industry, airports and the world's air traffic control networks to a meeting in Montreal on Tuesday to discuss what needs to be changed to ensure that airliners are flying in secure airspace.
"You need to make sure everyone's got the same amount of information and that it's shared so that decisions can be made," London-based independent aviation consultant John Strickland told Reuters.
Airlines rely on governments to provide them with the information from sources they don't have access to, such as military or secret service information. They will therefore tell the meeting they need improved access to neutral information, an industry source said.
ICAO currently has a limited role and cannot open or close airspace. That decision is up to governments, although European and U.S. bodies such as the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and EASA can issue advisories, as they temporarily did last week for Israel.
Strickland said that ICAO and air industry body IATA, as neutral, non-political bodies, could be a good way of getting more information to all airlines.
"It does behove the industry to show it can deliver as much consistency as possible," he added. "Airlines are commercial entities, they're in business to make a return, but they don't want to fly at any price."
(Reporting by Victoria Bryan in Berlin, Sarah Young in London, Wiktor Szary in Warsaw, Praveen Menon in Dubai, editing by Louise Heavens)
UAE's Emirates Airline suspends flights to Iraq's Arbil
Air France decides to avoid east Ukrainian air space
Royal Jordanian airline suspends flights to Iraq on security concerns
U.S. air carriers to avoid Russia-Ukraine border airspace
Turkish Airlines says its flights to avoid Ukrainian airspace
London mayor to go on LRT ride around KL
Putin strengthens ties with Georgia breakaway region; Tbilisi protests
Russia's Putin, Iran's Rouhani say substantial progress in nuclear talks - Kremlin
Portugal ex-PM charged with corruption, to remain in custody
As Vienna focus turns to OPEC, silent thanks on Iran deal delay
Mired in crisis, Mexican president aided by discredited opposition
World of Warcraft' celebrates 10-year anniversary with hot dog
Dynamite reacquires John Carter comic rights
Tourists can whiz around Putrajaya in electric vehicles
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The Wonderful Wizard of OzPaperback Collins Classics
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- Publication date: 8 July 2010
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HarperCollins is proud to present its range of best-loved, essential classics. '"Come along, Toto," she said. "We will go to the Emerald City and ask the Great Oz how to get back to Kansas again."' Swept away from her home in Kansas by a tornado, Dorothy and her dog Toto find themselves stranded in the fantastical Land of Oz. As instructed by the Good Witch of the North and the Munchkins, Dorothy sets off on the yellow brick road to try and find her way to the Emerald City and the Wizard of Oz, who can help her get home. With her companions the Scarecrow, the Tin Woodman and the Cowardly Lion, Dorothy experiences an adventure full of friendship, magic and danger. A much-loved children's classic, The Wizard of Oz continues to delight readers young and old with its enchanting tale of witches, flying monkeys and silver shoes.
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Lyman Frank Baum (1856-1919) was an American children's book author, best known for The Wonderful Wizard of Oz. He wrote thirteen novel sequels, nine other fantasy novels, and several other works (55 novels in total, plus four "lost" novels, 83 short stories, over 200 poems, an unknown number of scripts, and many miscellaneous writings).


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Mr. Gallagher, PE Teacher at Antioch Middle School, Antioch
Traffic Tim Activity Book
Traffic Tim is an inventive Traffic Engineer in the Diablo Region who teaches Traffic Safety Investigators like you how being safe can save lives. He uses his inventions to keep traffic flowing safely and smoothly.
Answer Key (English)
Answer Key (Español)
Street Smarts Diablo Region In the News
Antioch High School Cycling Festival
On October 23, Street Smarts Diablo Region teamed up with the Antioch Bike Club to host Ride On!!, a free festival to celebrate cycling and promote bike safety. The event was a huge success and received coverage from the Contra Costa Times and the Metropolitan Transportation Commission (MTC).