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Book Title; The Map and The Territory
Author ; Alan Greenspan
Publisher ; Vintage International
Year ; 2013
Review by
Sampson I. Onwuka
The former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan argues in this book 'The Map and The Territory' that the 2008 experience was profound in its complex largely for exposing the impact of U.S markets on the rest of the world who's forfeit of troubled Investment Banks such as Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns left more mark to be desired and may forever live in infamy. But they saw it coming, that it seems to him that the attachment of these Investment Banks to the Federal Reserve, especially JP Morgan where he worked for a time, may have convinced these Banks that lending at such high risk as would have seen inevitable, especially to individuals and corporations with checkered past, will not matter since these Banks were Too Big To Fail and the tenuous bond to the Federal Reserve will revert to their rescue.
The human factor is that the investment from savings which were thin from as at 2003, continued since the Housing boom in 2000s did not abate or show any signs of diminishing, that it was not justified for any reasons was clear enough but yet it continued to boom. It seems to him that the Banks may well be blamed for the problems of 2008 financial meltdown, but it was a meltdown that was long awaited going by human nature. In rear-view, the hustle over the US market came from elsewhere he argued, particularly Europe with their investment Banks penetrating the US housing market.
Of course the implication is that the houses which are common sense real estate, or for other reasons suitable for converting money from shadow Banking or Moon Walking (hot money) to real money receives the high exposure which is capital investment with future rewards or not necessarily discounting of flows through present value and the White noise of popularity. It did not matter by the argument that the
We would interject that the house prices simply became hot for nothing in the 2000s, and the reasons for the upsize in housing prices were not visible to the greater public and since the reason were not obvious, the heading North of the Stocks could have only suggested an 'irrational exuberance' and perhaps nothing more.
Lack of formal or rational reason for the spike in houses may have propelled American based banks particularly JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns, etc., to reposition themselves in the housing US market, and the attention may not have forced other economic areas into a recess, and widening the gap of the Balance Sheet. The general investment tool of the 2006 in the discipleship of Modern Portfolio Theory or Efficient Market Theory had to be done with or simply could not apply to the Feds and other Power Lenders – for how else could a spike that signaled an inevitable burst refuse to warn these investment Banks. The money came, and if they did not come, they were manufactured by the swell of interest from without.
In rearview to the events of this period, yet an equal measure of concentration of the total investment entering the US market was not expedited into other areas saving Housing, few would have mattered in the end of the growth cycle, fewer ridden to the financial erosions that proved its point in 2008. For it seems that such cold blanket by the actions of the Feds and retributive aftermath needs not be spun, even if the FEDS had acted with due respect to the underlining inflationary pressure of the US market under George Bush, particularly its hosting of measured rate cuts by view of economic soft landing.
It would seem that the efforts were primitive, that the Federal Reserve under Greenspan had already accepted of theory of money supply (M2) however digital however psychological, may have lacked the instruments to curtail the exposure of US Banks to such events, and resorted to such steps to exorcise the devils of inflation without hurting the economy as if the market charged forward outside the housing numbers, heralds a doomsday, preventive measures for this scenario is well practiced in all class of economic respect, and in short, the essence of all the trainings required to invest in the markets and FINRA certified is proof that a broker and a brokerage would avoid investment pitfalls.
This sort of risk rest other issues associated with banks but from the exposures that the Feds are concerned it, the total variances of the all external and internal shocks to explicates on an indexes' AR 'Auto regression' and VAR which in spite of the risk and degrees of risk involved in management, excludes the 'residential investment'.
The confidence on these numbers and what they may tend to suggest may be misleading going by the native reaction of a Central Bank or our Federal Reserve whose estimates are pretty much reduced to the rate of return of financial institution or banking receipts (bank stocks), and will point to the origins of debt or debt ceiling (rate of debt) as systematic definitions of a Central Bank or Federal Reserve.
It would not therefore be a high standard in arguing that Investment Banks were not inexperienced in dealing with problems of capacity and over-investment leading to 2008, or lacked the expertise necessary for performing the least functions of the public investment - Short or Long -, saving perhaps, the backroom psychology that it will paper out in the end.
At the end - if there was such an end - it matters that a greater share of blames is shouldered by the general public who were responsible for their own investment leading up to 2006. Else would have suffered his or her finances to be compromised from narrowing attention on one spectrum of a market from a general or sorted investment portfolio.
Such outcomes has no defenses saving that of human element… but was consciously ignored as pursuit of risk, which Greenspan believes was human nature hence the cautionary entailment of logic that the trainings then and now is no consequences, for that the Federal Reserve with measure of the blames.
The role of International Banks in US is any and one factor – with or without respect to Gold – the permeating of US Markets would not have mattered, it is from the combined market forces of U.S stock market and the European, or what they call Archipelago, that majority of the short falls in forecast seem to play into the world markets in spite of the separation of the numbers.
By the 2006, the market were showing signs that it could not be contained, that the general expectations is that the failure of the government to erase some of the problems of the bubbles through tightening financial instrument such as the FED rate was a burst day scenario. Although the alleged strategic soft landing of the market did not expose to wage problem of fixed income, investment was largely in one major area.
From the point of view of the 2008 incident where all the fine points about Economic prediction and modern portfolio theory of financing which essentially proved its limits in forecasting burst in the U.S economy is played out, it is accurate to suggest that the book is 3 stars of 5 and possible an additional ½, reduced from 4 star for insufficiency of real life example such as Detroit, where the impact of COCO is felt with resolve on credit and savings as essentially out of the question for debts that fell well below a Threshold.
The Contingent Convertible (COCO) with sufficient respect to Debt to equity is styled to depart from debt and convert equity, whose official point should not be exceeded, or what Greenspan called a debt 'threshold' when breached should revert to actions on the Collateral property or revert to extraordinary measures.
This point equally count against Greenspan, for by the huge Gaps in the investment Portfolios of many overnight lending Banks in 2006 and after, were generally compromised long before the full extent of exposure went public. That from facts that a burst could have arrived too soon, even in the third tier efficient market, there was more than sufficient shreds of evidence of unequal growth in the stock market, a disequilibrium that need not migrate to the point of mathematical indicia given the 'irrational exuberance' of one ends of the Market, the Housing Boom.
This breach of Debt stories usually force an action from all sides of Party, with respect to the collateral arrangement, whereas the bigger lenders are said to apply a control of money supply through emphasis on Collateral, an exercise American economist migrate to Savings as the counterweight for Austrian School one or all under Von Mises and Frederick Hayek.
Counter Party economics resolutions of Schumpeter is still popular in Boston, but the symmetrical and asymmetrical (asymptotic) price resolution through technology replacement is closer to Keynes than Mises, largely for the quantity of Credit but the momentum of Keynes aggregate spending and demand theorem does not support savings in Shorts, would also betray the point of micro-disequilibrium which reverts to savings and saving to inflation and rates.
Therefore it seems natural that firms should convert debt into equity, unless in terms of future money as with the US, that credit in the forms of arbitrary repayment history or in terms of income would not have met the demands of a US economy, will itself the economy a false economy – so also Securities and overnight lending, in real time, revert to the near measure of US currency to Gold (highest collateral) and a diminishing the impact of Greenbacks since 71.
This is pretty much the way most banks with enough foreign exposure operate, and it has a lot of problems associated with it. Why the COCO is not without force, we are concerned with why it made it to the book where it not to shine light on COCO consequences using a common place and real life example, for instance in Detroit or in larger framework such as Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae and HUD, where in another instance such as New York, Banks equally engage in extreme of insuring the loss of equity through Debt.
Greenspan argues that U.S economy consists of Index and graphs which allow independent Economic sources affiliated with the U.S Government to make financial decision and forecast the economic features of the government. He argued in his book that the process started as Ways and Means to end the Economic Crisis (Bank Crisis) that by the 1930's they were at least two principle groups of economic measurements available in USA.
One such is the measurement based on Cycles which he argued may go as far back as the period when the available of Agricultural Produce such as Wheat was depended on Weather conditions, and for that Weather experts –not as reliable as those in recent times – made forecast based on the year and the Weather conditions at a given time running mainly the course of a Season.
With the advent of Rail Roads, the loading factor with respect to production replaced the old Horse and Carriage, the frightening speed of delivery and size almost insured business success and it in effect location along the business route applause for business credit.
Greenspan mentioned that, "Railroad expansion and the Homestead Act During and After the Civil war, opened up the Great Plains to a massive migration that led more than doubling of Wheat production. Steel production, the backbone of American Industrial advance in the quarter of the nineteenth century was propelled forward by the invention of the Bessemer furnace (1856) and the discovery in 1806 of iron ore in Minnesota's Mesabi Range. Northern Michigan's canal locks at Sault St. Marie, which opened in 1855 and linked Lake Superior and Lake Haron, enabled Mesabi ore to be shipped to the burgeoning steel industry of the Midwest, and channeled a substantial part of national grain output through the Erie Canal and to the populous East Coast.", is a way to introduce the changes that new forms of production gave rise, to dissect that saving the accumulated incidents of the Rail Road Recovery Act in 1902 – which was the first of the Recovery Acts in the 20th century, it would seem to suggest that Steel production as a measure of probable demands of labor or productive course of the Rail Roads or vice versa, was by the end of the 20th, the determinant factor in detailing out the production of Wheat or other similar produce, that construction of Rail Roads detailed other avenues of Agricultural estimate, some of which clearly affected the behaviors of consumers towards the periodic prices and seasonal price lags, whereas these consumers rationed out these quantity of Wheat with bushels with the point of realizing profits from Seasonal Agricultural and aggregate demands.
New York for practical points of heavy investment in the 1920's was excluded from what was happening in the rest of the country, and the Bank's Weekly clearing or what they called Letters, reflected new concerns in the Country and hence aided investors comfortable with long or short term investment. By the end of the 1920's, and beginning in 1919, the Federal Reserve began to keep an account of its graphs and fluctuations, and in 1920, the National Bureau of Economic Research was founded largely to entertain help the market and the country understand the varying degrees of their actions. Its First Director was a Wesley Mitchell who along with Arthurs Burns compounded the book on Business Cycles.
For Alan Greenspan the role of Arthur Burns in US market and the working formation of the Federal Reserve is largely unknown saving for the removal of US currency from gold standard, based in part on Fischer Black's citation but coincidental to formative inception of the role of the Feds in helping to stabilize the markets through M1 and M2 monetary injection to banks, particularly M2 (after Friedman and Schwartz) - but proclaims that the 40 years of his friendship with him, that he more than influenced his Chairmanship aptitude.
But then, the country did not expect the depression of the 1929 to have lasted that long, its longevity was diagnosed with the paucity of objective indexing for market forecast. The National Index was measure of information or activity, represents the flow (momentum) during trading hours but then replaces the transaction receipt once the information or transaction is confirmed as Stock Index (Stochastic).
But this stock of index was not itself totally dependent on Business Cycles, it affected Business Cycles on short waves and it shows the range and the graphs over a period of time and a day, reflect a trend which is now behaviors capable of mitigating the Seasonal expectation; all day time trading are dependent of the gaps between history of a price or a stock, which changes to reflect information such as capital and company prospects.
The man responsible for putting together a larger framework of measuring the range of operational dynamics of the United States was a certain Simon Kuznet, though sponsored by NBER, worked for the most part independently. In fact that the understudied implications of Welfare in America was gifted new meaning from the supposed utility assumption of the state and city budgets and the Taxes was a different matter. The relevant association of Kuznet to GNP is derived from the comparative association of the remarkable Business Cycles along with the Government earnings and spending.
Greenspan argued that from all the final computations of the market which mostly took place in his reign and the fulfilling of a certain Graham Moore predictions of the role of computers in the modern banking and financing on one hand and marketing on the other hand, it is not without reason that Modern Portfolio theory took on a new meaning during the Internet and adequate information Age. He cited that a record of these graphs and movements reflect a terrible similarity. Yet no particular decade is suitable for any economic decade in the history of these United States; one whole year cannot explain the other, economic forecast is relative largely for what he believes to be human factor in decision making.
In essence, the convenience of Maps and Territories for economic forecast of all types should only be useful to a certain degree, does not betray that it heralds some ultimate ends. In vein of 2008, it is not a misnomer, since the impact on rate of returns was European currency migration into US market. The sheer size of the money put on funk on the real estate, and there was no formal estimator saving the human nature.
Such objective opinion on the use of indicators usually cast the wrong aspersion on a system that is based on indexes which represents an attempt on Equilibrium from all corners and tiers of the World Market, and at times, those who promote arguments on the nature of Rational Economics, its Time series, its forecast and limits are usually facing a lot of dislocation or dissociation. For slippery books such as The Maps and The Territories, it will hardly be surprising that the schools of interest in money and psychology of advance economics and financial behaviors will be expected to take their cue on either side of the arguments. Rationality which in many ways than one is nothing else than forecast based on Business cycles and repeat seasons which is about 8% increase in sales yet differ by small fraction year on year. In all aspects of economic certainty, are expected to be opponents of Irrationality in market.
But this common sense approach is for the sake of argument settled along the Intermediate Path of two possibilities, and it is either logical or economical to cite that during Greenspan's Chairmanship several signs were already in effect hot comb, the CPI Index was high in Market Sensitivity, that manufacturing applause from value from product took a low measure of market reaction. During Greenspan, Retail Market Index overtook the Index for Durable Goods which demonstrated the leniency of the former Chairman towards Welfare and Consumptive economy.
In the past, Chicago School and Mercantile exchange moved the interest facts of American Industries to the general public and at least up to 1970, University of Chicago placed enormous faith on Studies of US Industries which proved a lightning rod for Investment. But this Index with respect to Industries and to some degree manufacturing, and with respect to Housing certificates and permits as important Indexes proved a low probative market sensitivity proved under Greenspan. It may seem that attention to trade replaced the investment psychology of production and the transition from Small Businesses to Mid Cap companies.
Rehearsed from behind, we may now interpret Greenspan's use of the word Irrationality as derived from poverty of US financial literacy within the operational risk of the market and the individual or collective investor, a statement which was respect Alfred Marshal's reduction of Irrationality to the demand driven economy of lower class – usually the larger in number, but not applied to Robert Shilling's 'Irrational exuberance' which is a reflection of the market structure and dissimilar from the human and devised elements of consumptive behavior which Greenspan and Marshall may have alluded. But in kindly light of Greenspan's Age of Turbulence, Welfare from Greenspan position, may supplant Alfred Marshall's class complex.
How well does Government spending resolve the most promising and telling problems faced by the most with the least? It is not the role of the Fed to measure the left and right of Government Spending, it their role to respond to significant Economic indicators, device plans through the tools available to them and from all signs and signals, it applause the case that the Feds is limited in its ability given the throes of Banks and Insurance Companies that day by day determine the future of the Markets. This is probably Rationalistic, since advances in Seasons and Cycles are only relatively estimable.
We begin by adding that a shift from Rational Economics and expectations of the Market is not saved by the spin off from the center which is called Irrationality, rather, a common place argument that Irrationality in market is as constant a factor as Greenspan argues, in indicating the left and right of the market, is arrived by behaviors on the graphs. Therefore the reasons for actions in human behaviors cannot be justified at any time, and it is then Rationalistic to compare the supposing Irrational with as correlation to Rational. Rational Economies is not the center and represents no Sympletic and not true that the econometrics are Rationalistic side of the market, or is it the best or necessarily have the best BLUE for forecast at any time. Bank Stocks and SNL may only make up 20% of that crazy to expect world markets to behave according to plan
The presence of in explicated economic growth or Wealth or profit for instance would not be expected to conform to any statistics or any season or any cycle in Business largely, for the fact that something like a growth in houses and real estate goes beyond the primal numbers to a degree that a sub-optimal of a long term reversal that is so well factored into the markets is considered self-repairing, similar to Walras' General Equilibrium. The governing dynamics (consumptive expectation) of any market is subject to new forms of sensitive changes. It is a leading argument that housing recovery as an effective economic indicator is sensitive to economic recovery and household management. It also affirms the health of the market, any market, for the sake of expenses; Housing Recovery sensitive to the market as a practical measure of investors' confidence and an effective economic indicator.
It does (does mean) not mean that efforts to abbreviate the depletion of US manufacturing Jobs was not factored into the dooms day scenario, but exactly how well the unemployment numbers correlated the size of turnovers and amount of Securitization in the massive and bullish 2000s would not have easily, provides a summary of the lapses in current economic indicators or forecast instrument which Greenspan merely highlighted.
It does not mean that the portfolio theory for instance suffers in quality; it mirrors the demands of a new form of economic expectations which he, Greenspan, labored in the book to put in clear and concise themes, with emphasis on human financial behaviors. Rational and Irrational Economies is not a study that can fit into any text book, it is a world increasingly polarized on the expectations attached to any market especially in context of two stimuli; one of which is the period of expansion and the period of the contraction.
The latter is revised and advertised as a period in the history of money management which some continue from the standpoint of some benighted Austrian Money people, to be an inevitability from a general high period of robust and loose credit expansionary market policies. Of course, this diet is bad to the bone given the misleading inceptive in real time which both schools employ as a way to absorb any market this boom and burst.
Although we expected Greenspan to place more faith on the argument of Savings which seem at least Austrian, we find that it contradicts his whole existence wherefore he slovenly discusses the paradigm with aplomb and with Lorelei of positivist economist. Yet his seamless web of interactive discourses on the relevancy of savings manufactures a separate reason for the lack of formal capacity of the Maps and graphs associated with seasons to forecast an economic future.
It is not from the Greenspan's 'The Map and the Territory' that we learn the great expectation involved with Country Wide and it's dislocating relational to Bear Stearns. It is from Andrew Sorkin's 'Too Big to Fail' (2009) that we have a rearview into the collapsing world of Country Wide. In fact Sorkin at some point began to point to Country Wide as the root of the problems with the 2008 kamikaze. The show which began somewhere in March 2008, concerned Bear Stearns but the connection between Investment Banks
Mr. Greenspan attempted to measure the success of his stay at Fed Chairman from the great demands of the unusual economic challenges of the 2000's, citing an instance from one of his 2003 speeches where he adjudged the agility of US Real Estate market as experiencing an 'irrational exuberance'. This speech is memorable for a market looking for a direction and needing to explicate, and its invocation in his book is not a defense of productive involvement, rather, it is an oversight based on the financial role play of the lender of the last resort; the Feds, and the problems of using familiar instruments without the rearview of the consequences associated with them.
The cornerstone of his book may be reduced to this theme that irrational financial behaviors, especially human behaviors, constitute as much relevant forecast instrument as other business indicators, that emphasis on behavioral economies is not misplaced given the events of 2008 with limited run down of the variables which does not exclude the human penchant for risk especially when the outcomes are less than desirable. Real Price of Oil may represent a kind of shock Index of the spot Price and notional GDP price index (Log) and Feds Rate, it is not necessarily within the …
From this paragraph, it is clear that we are suggesting that the success and failure of 'The Map and The Territory' can objectively be measured by the use and abuse of economic forecast and indicators and not necessarily its history, or perhaps the book success is by the degree through which it offers a defense of economic indicators and its interpretive relevance to the forecast of US economy and Federal Reserve.
It is not to be said that there are alternatives which he pointed to but excess indulgence on degree of argument does equal the index of purely human form. It is not easy to quantity human behaviors but there is leniency towards a full and authorized pursuits of Herd-like behavior which based on instance capacity is often reduced to the opening gaps; beta from alphas, and in spite of the many few arguments on interests and inflation, the 4i quadratic is perhaps a Consumptive economic behaviors whose estimate is based on information, the flow. While the familiar territories and maps for forecast factors inventories and savings – particularly savings, the system here is not saved by rate of return or debt, maps for territories in comparative assessment to any market exist by reasons of the regression from a broad index of graphs. That is, the spread or the gaps between graphs...may or may not be leading the future all the time; it is unlikely that these forecast and monitors would not use savings and investment as tools for very significant tools.
Greenspan made light the argument that US markets experienced a shift of emphasis from savings to debt in the last decade. He is looking to emphasis savings along the lines of Debt, going at the rate of public consumption of durable goods, and such future estimate may require sacrifice. Hence Savings away from Investors is also a healthy practice in spite of the Chief source of returns for instance Interest Rate.
The author speaks of a fat tail for instance, that a fat tail in a graph usually reverts to the extent of losses. Subtracting expected losses from actual losses equals unexpected losses, but if any investor is looking to place the 'beta factor' role on his or her stock, it should not be done with respect to the stock in of itself, it should incorporate as much information as possible, including the legacy of business cycles and the human behavioral dynamics. Fat tails in ordinary circumstances of economic indexing, may equally result from the shift from production (production possibility) to cost is a transition strategy involving an industry and not necessarily manufacturing, but the length of the risk bearing tail beyond the excision of a risk averse investor mainly illustrates direction of the market after the shocks, and some of the shocks are irreversible.
A fat tail is usually coincidental to the shift from left to right of the unemployment and inversely correlated inflation graph, best associated with Michael Philip as the Philip curve. The challenge to Philip's curve by Michael Phelps does not diminish the attention it receives from of all economists since it is a logical explanation behind Labor as fixed index in any economy and there is a matter of wage to consider, and a shift from household to macroeconomics. It is an econometric tool.
A right hand side variable (all right hand side variables) is mainly vector driven, but may be compressed to a three months, which is a final indicating of what has already transpired in the Markets, both Stocks and Notes, as the Banks indicators arms the Feds with GDP estimate, or conditions the reactions from the Feds or the reaction from the Government. And the length of the tail usually point to consistent problems of unemployment and may point to short falls in aggregate demand resulting from the disequilibrium of fixed income and price.
Talk about easy money or flow period, where there a foreseeable momentum, credit and securitization hitting a certain shock. The Kurtosis following a unsettling period usually require a definition, when for instance a variable such as Crude oil mitigates cost of production or deflationary Auto index, continues injection of money from the Banks may not be advised, yet withholding credit will force a negative adverse effect – usually psychological – on the market. Here the Feds will be expected to risk a line of Credit or react to the market through bond acquisition, a tool for negative truncation following the unusual agility (zig zag) of the market.
Here the run off is within two major variable, will not necessarily relate the Bayesian model for multivariable Bank Stocks dependent Fed Index, whereas Poisson manifold, dissimilar from Alpha-Beta Gaussian as used by Fischer Black and Myron Scholes, perhaps a Markov (preceding the Credit card) chain will do but on a specific year, the Monte Carlos computation, experience excitation may show better regression given the vectors aligned for 3 months and other deaths and decay will apply, possibly 15th or 22nd of the 30 day calendar.
The time or duration is important for both the VAR and AR, it is modeled after the previous execution and Time Series, which is not reality with due respect to Walk Process of the Bond as a definition of human financial behaviors, but measures the present from past record and hence the excitation, projection, earnings growth, GDP, in comparative performance to G-7 nations or peculiar others such as Britain and Germany the later Greenspan preferred over Japan for number of Banks and the role of American business tied up in Europe.
It is a shift that began its journey from the dumping of Gold as a standard for US currency 1971, a point that approaches the problems of CAPM from the participation of International currencies in U.S market. It amounts to commentary to add that CAPM safe-net is applause by the corresponding relational between currencies moving to US from International markets at 200 percent profits to nearly twice the amount when it moves from U.S into foreign markets. If the Feds still use Cross Section Dispersion, of bank Stock as estimate, Bank level of return on CAPM regression and daily yields over the S&P 500 Index and estimate, usually on U.S based companies such as S&P 500 Index suing SNL for Bank Stocks, it prompts a 12 month calendar clearing a comparison with a 2 year Treasury Notes (Merrill Lynch). We push the daily calculation from a month to month basis, and calculate the deviation from previous records (standard deviation), and the rest is easy for instance the overnight lending or LIBOR would be reduced to a three months with respect to 12 Bank stock regression and 2 year notes. It is a variance of 12 months measured from daily monitor or estimator with specialization of each Bank for a given month.
The problems of the United States with regards to the Shadow banking is shocking of its system by the negative externalities from Europe or from any regional economic environment such as Asia. Money laundry is one area the Fed Chairman did not torch on. The size of the wealth that is available in the US from foreign littoral impacts the local economy, that shadow banking alters the Internal Rate of return by the sheer size that a spike in Housing in disequilibrium to …the estimate of US Banks Stocks and Treasury Notes, usually eliminates the problems of unforeseen shocks to system and is hence a Univariate applicable model, a Vector Auto Regression (VAR) that mitigates Internal Rates without the housing numbers. Yet the problem was a credit problem is derived from housing numbers widening on the reasons why there was reluctance to do much yet signifying that the problems was not unknown.
But if the housing numbers now experience more than normal excitation due to foreign or International Hot Money for short peculating the Residential numbers separately or independent of Feds Index. The 2000s economic boom in measured light was not a Boom, it was uneven and a robust attention on one key area of the market. 2008 was also a housing burst that major Investment Banks with more than one crop Portfolio.
Ordinarily, this safe-net explains why Japanese interest rate is usually lower than US and US than Europe, but from this arrangement and its relevance to overnight lending, we may fail to discover in the speeches and statements of Greenspan as Chairman in the 2000s that points to the money function of Euro to Dollars and the boom of Shadow Banking in US as A danger to Economic equilibrium, and an attack on the Internal Rate of Return reflecting the measure of general equilibrium, and/or disequilibrium which is not the same as Irrationality (unknown consumptive behaviors – usually a transition from Long Wave to Short Wave and its Variance which are the shocks to the market, or in advance money Fed Index over GDP) in spite of human financial behaviors which impacts (Graphs, Cycles) where the word Maps is here a macabre for these graphs and movement on the graphs and therefore Rational with due respect to the calculus and algebraic matrices of seasons and cycles and estimators, whereas the irrationality as a breakpoint, reflects movements on a graph reduced to a 1% by Greenspan – though not equal to 1 index. Or that the foreign financial machination was practically removing the estimator from the U.S Real Estate.
Shadow Banking in U.S is not just a European Banking disease; it is a very Asian in concept. If Greenspan is for instance blamed for short falls in the oversight, it is to be said that the source of his 'irrational exuberance' which Robert Shilling mentioned without inciting Europe, is clearly a divide between his oversight of the cause of the disequilibrium of US market and the emphasis on housing as an economic indicator, or that his faith in the trusted Fed's tools and application did not and the large percentage of European banks involved in American Real Estate industry and the impact of Euro has not received adequate press, especially the roles of some its major Investment Banks which in turn acquired by European Corporations.
The Financial Crisis Inquiry Report of 2011 did mention the impact of Euro on US housing, which is a spent force in the new book by Greenspan, the boom in the 2000s was only a housing bubble.
Greenspan argues that in 2006 nearly everyone in the market was using the basic concepts of Modern Portfolio Theory, which Myron Sholes, Harry Markowitz, Fisher Black, Franco Modigliani, along the lines of Paul Samuelson made popular. That it was also observed that the theory had limited applications, and was not unsuspected to measure a fraction of the market. The distribution of risk and losses is not governed by Micro or Macroeconomics, equilibrium or disequilibrium, it is a product of one's willingness to accept that certain movements in the market cannot be justified and therefore caution is advised. But as Greenspan shares from his book, excitation from robust gains and large increases in numbers is not easy to manage hence the Institutions are also advised.


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"He was so depressing that he was tonic. I mean he had this sort of an uncompromising view of life as series of disasters, and that, for some reason, makes me happy. In his world there were cosmic accidents, huge ontological mistakes, but there was a great vitality to his diagnosis. He burst with health. He told you that everything was dying but he told it to you in such a vital way, with such a sense of humor, that you felt absolutely buoyed by it." via Planet Cioran (Codrescu is talking about hanging out with Cioran, but I think this is why everyone who reads Cioran reads Cioran.)
via jvasseur

subset: commoncrawl


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October 30, 2014
Grand Junction, Colo. (KKCO) - Gas prices in Colorado are climbing fast.
While our state's prices are lower than the national average, Colorado is increasing at a higher rate.
The latest figures show Colorado residents paying an average of $3.58 for a gallon of regular gas; whereas the U.S. average is $3.77 a gallon.
Even though gas prices are less in Colorado, that doesn't mean the prices are any easier on local residents.
"I honestly had to take a second job in order to seriously pay for the gas along with food and stuff," said Amy Todd, Glade Park resident.
Just last month, gas prices were under $3 here in Grand Junction, making local residents pay about an $.80 difference per gallon now.
Even with the $.80 increase, we're still under the national average price per gallon.
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New from Nakatomi- Kristian Donaldson's awesome promo print for his and Brian Wood's book, THE MASSIVE. Print is 18x24, and we only have 50 of 'em! Come and get it now, HERE.
Thanks to Papertrailprints for posting this! Man, you guys sure do make my tumblr-ing easy! This is by Kristian Donaldson for Nakatomi, and it's available now.
Kristian Donaldson, "Delta Crossing", Edition of of 130 (Nakatomi will have 50), I don't know now many colors it is but the fluorescent split fountain makes it anyways. Click through for info.


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Houzz is the new way to design your home.
Lauren Donaldson
Media and Bloggers
Media and Bloggers
Repurposed & Vintage Book Wall Art
To highlight some of my special family pictures I created unique picture frames from vintage book covers. A DIY perfect for any room or space as a way to add interest and texture to a wall.
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December 30, 2011
Cute frame project


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|24 Dec 2012
Win7 Home Premium x64
want a Command, to have DOS?? look up MACs of devices on Network
My subject above possibly appears strange to some.
Here's the problem;
1) The Network and Sharing screen on my Windows 7-SP1 computer has been making a "Network Map", showing unknown devices, or showing devices where there shouldn't be any device.
2) The known devices are ID'ed by their given name and the related MAC. The unknown devices don't have a name or MAC associated with them.
3) In addition, I have devices on the network that the "map" doesn't reflect. Network discovery is enabled and the devices that don't showup are turned on because I can ping them.
What I would like;
Is there a DOS cmd, another Windows 7 cmd or some other 3rd party software that will give me a way to accurately map my network and ID the unknown devices?
Many mahalos-n-alohas on this Christmas Eve from the big Island of Hawaii..."Mele Kalikimaka"...konadon
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Plymouth Police Officer Trent Shively took time Monday night to review the basics of bicycle safety with the Cub Scouts of Pack 222. After reviewing the laws and guidelines for safe cycling on city streets, Officer Shively set up a couple of areas that the Scouts could test their skills. Zane Johnson maneuvers through cones as Shively keeps a watchful eye.
[1] http://www.thepilotnews.com/sites/default/files/ShivleyandZaneJohnson.jpg


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|About the book
McConnell, Brue, and Flynn's Macroeconomics: Principles, Problems, and Policies is the #1 Principles of Economics textbook in the world. It continues to be innovative while teaching students in a clear, unbiased way. The 19th Edition builds upon the tradition of leadership by sticking to 3 main goals: Help the beginning student master the principles essential for understanding the economizing problem, specific economic issues, and the policy alternatives; help the student understand and apply the economic perspective and reason accurately and objectively about economic matters; and promote a lasting student interest in economics and the economy.
|Key features
|About the authors
Sean Flynn
Sean is an assistant professor of economics at Scripps College in Claremont, California. He is the author of the international best seller "Economics for Dummies" as well as the coauthor, along with Campbell McConnell and Stanley Brue, of the world's best-selling college economics textbook, "Economics: Principles, Problems, and Policies".
An avid martial artist, Sean is a former Aikido national champion and has coached five of his students to U.S. national aikido titles.
A recurring commentator on FOX Business, ABC News, and NPR, Sean holds a B.A. in economics from the University of Southern California and a Ph.D. in economics from U.C. Berkeley, where he completed his dissertation under the supervision of Nobel Laureate George Akerlof.
Sean's research focuses on the often puzzling and seemingly irrational behavior of stock market investors, but he's also investigated topics as wide-ranging as the factors that affect customer tipping behavior at restaurants and why you see a lot of unionized workers only in certain industries.
|Table of contents
PART 1: AN INTRODUCTION TO ECONOMICS and THE ECONOMY
To the Student
1 Limits, Alternatives, and Choices (+ Appendix)
2 The Market System and the Circular Flow
3 Demand, Supply, and Market Equilibrium (+ Appendix)
4 Elasticity
5 Market Failures: Public Goods and Externalities
6 International Trade
7 The Balance of Payments, Exchange Rates, and Trade Deficits
8 The Economics of Developing Countries
PART 4: MICROECONOMICS of PRODUCT MARKETS
9 Consumer Behavior (+ Appendix)
10 Businesses and the Costs of Production
11 Pure Competition in the Short Run
12 Pure Competition in the Long Run
13 Pure Monopoly
14 Monopolistic Competition and Oligopoly (+ Appendix)
14w Technology, R&D, and Efficiency
PART 5: MICROECONOMICS of RESOURCE MARKETS
15 The Demand for Resources
16 Wage Determination (+ Appendix)
17 Rent, Interest, and Profit
18 Natural Resource and Energy Economics
PART 6: MICROECONOMICS of GOVERNMENT
19 Public Finance: Expenditures and Taxes
20 Asymmetric Information, Voting, and Public Choice
PART 7: MICROECONOMIC ISSUES and POLICIES
21 Antitrust Policy and Regulation
22 Agriculture: Economics and Policy
23 Income Inequality, Poverty, and Discrimination
24 Health Care
25 Immigration
26 An Introduction to Macroeconomics
27 Measuring Domestic Output and National Income
28 Economic Growth
29 Business Cycles, Unemployment, and Inflation
PART 9: MACROECONOMIC MODELS and FISCAL POLICY
30 Basic Macroeconomic Relationships
31 The Aggregate Expenditures Model
32 Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply (+ Appendix)
33 Fiscal Policy, Deficits, and Debt
PART 10: MONEY, BANKING, and MONETARY POLICY
34 Money, Banking, and Financial Institutions
35 Money Creation
36 Interest Rates and Monetary Policy
37 Financial Economics
PART 11: EXTENSIONS and ISSUES
38 Extending the Analysis of Aggregate Supply
39 Current Issues in Macro Theory and Policy
(Available for instructors on the Instructor's Resource CD and Connect library)
COI 1 The United States and the Global Economy
COI 2 Previous International Exchange-Rate Systems


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Decrease the size of Automator applications | 10 comments | Create New Account
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Decrease the size of Automator applications
And if you have an older iBook, your HD may be as small as 15 or 10 GB and non-trivial to upgrade. Meanwhile, the test workflow I created has over 800k of localized resources. Get rid of the unused resources from 4-5 of those and I have enough space for an extra song in iTunes.
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Jun 07, 2013 Bob Buskirk All News, Hardware News 0
Based on a leaked Intel roadmap, you would be really surprised to know that Intel Broadwell won't be launching in 2014. Instead it's the Haswell (Haswell-E server part on X99 chipset, Ivy Bridge E, the six cores LGA2011 CPU on the chipset X79) which will be launching later this year with undefined performance characteristics.
Jun 07, 2013 Bob Buskirk All News, Hardware News 0
At Computex Intel is showing off a Prototype flash drive, which they are calling the "world's fastest thumb drive" which uses Thunderbolt technology rather than USB. The key-shaped drive carried with it a capacity of 128 GB and plugs directly into a Thunderbolt port. The drive itself is about the same size as normal USB flash drives.
Jun 04, 2013 Bob Buskirk All News, Hardware News 0
Many people have been wondering when we will see more high-end extreme enthusiast processors from Intel. The last Extreme processors Intel released were the LGA2011 Sandy Bridge-E chips. We do know that we will see Ivy Bridge-E processors in Q3 2013, but it seems just a year after Ivy Bridge-E launches it will be replaced by the Haswell-E platform. Haswell-E will be compatible with the X99 chipset that we have been hearing about for a while now and will bring DDR4 to consumers.
May 31, 2013 Bob Buskirk All News, Hardware News, Web News 0
It looks like the Intel 4th Generation Core processors that were on sale over in China earlier this month were in fact real! With the Haswell launch less than a week away many retailers are stocked with the chip and one Japanese retailer took a few photos of the Core i7-4770K box. Read on to check them out!
May 30, 2013 Bob Buskirk All News, Hardware News 0
We have been talking about Intel getting out of the desktop motherboard business for quite some time now, but they are going to be releasing a few desktop boards to go along with their upcoming Haswell processors. These could be the last Intel board we ever see! The guys over at eTeknix have done a lengthy preview of the Intel DZ87KLT-75K motherboard.
May 28, 2013 Ahmed Humayun All News, Hardware News 0
Intel has come up with its latest low voltage CPUs which includes three models under the atom N2xxxx series. These are N2805. N2810, N2910 manufactured on 20nm technology. These three models have been added today to Intel's official pricelist. Their names indicate that they are atoms but they are enlisted in the ULV Celeron M section. The top SKU includes four cores with no hyper-threading technology which probably means that they are based on the new valley view M core.
May 26, 2013 Bob Buskirk All News, Hardware News 2
We have already seen reviews of the flagship Haswell processor the Core i7 4770K, hell it was already overclocked to 7 GHz! How about the Haswell Core i5 processors? Well the first review of a Haswell Core i5 desktop processor has been published by Chinese website PCOnline. They took the Core i5 4670K processor through an extensive set of benchmarks and tests. Want to see how it performed? Read on!
May 25, 2013 Bob Buskirk All News, Hardware News 0
I'm sure you have been hearing the reports about compatibility issues with Haswell desktop processors and certain power supplies. That is because Haswell processors have a new sleep state called C6 and C7. In these states the processor is nearly shut off, bringing down the power consumption. Intel's laptop processors in the Haswell will have the same feature as well as better power effeciency. Intel has said that Haswell processsors offer 50% more battery life in laptops than did their "Ivy Bridge" predecessors did.
May 22, 2013 Ahmed Humayun All News, Web News 18
The new Intel Haswell i7-4770K processor has now been listed on eBay and has already sold for $600 which does not include shipping charges. The price doesn't sound too unreasonable since in the past many other pre-released products that have been auctioned were in high figures.
May 19, 2013 Bob Buskirk All News, Hardware News 0
Latest reports say that details of Samsung next generation Galaxy Tab 3 10.1 have just seeped out in the market. Enclosed is a blazing fast Inlet Atom Z2560 processor. According to the GLBenchmark both the new variants of the intangible Samsung Galaxy Tab have appeared on its servers. Two models which are expected to come out are Galaxy Tab 3 10.1 and Galaxy Tab 3 8.0. While the Galaxy Tab 3 10.1 have still been kept under veil of secrecy but the point of reference do give us a partial view about the specifications and internals of device.
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Remember me posting about ideas for my twins bedroom? If not, you can find the Teen Bedroom Ideas here. Well, the painting is underway and I wanted to get moving on some projects for that room. I wanted a place where they could hang backpacks or coats and something that would also function as a piece of art in there. I've had this cupboard door in my garage for a few years. I picked it up at the Re-store for 4.00 and knew that would be the perfect thing to use for my base.
Naptime Crafters
Bowdabra Blog
I Heart Naptime
Chicken Scratch
Keeping it Simple
Sugar Bee Crafts
Ginger Snap Crafts
Southern Lovely


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Stephanie Shaw
23 posts and 1 follower since Mar 2012
The largest cake I have done so far. Top tier is smores, middle is cookies n cream and bottom tier is Reese's. Matching cupcakes as well. :)
Stephanie S.
Mar 2012
915 views
Naly Cakes
... Mar 2012
Love it!
Stephanie Shaw
... Mar 2012
thank you ;)
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In the 15 years since his platinum debut, Trace Adkins has released 10 studio albums, three greatest hits packages, and 30 chart singles. He has racked up four Grammy nominations and five ACM and CMT awards. Accolades like that – along with sales in the tens of millions – explain the respect Adkins has earned from both country fans and the industry alike.
Find things to do that are always free or are offering special deals.
Browse for special vacation packages and discounts.
Look for establishments offering coupons or discounts.
Check out which events have free admission or offer discounts.


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More tan-on-tan aggression -- this time it's "Tanning Mom" firing back at Snooki ... claiming the reality star is "the biggest a**hole in the world" for criticizing her life decisions.
Patricia Krentcil -- who's been under fire for allegedly taking her 5-year-old daughter to a tanning salon -- was out in New Jersey yesterday ... when someone asked about the comments Snooki recently made to "Extra" -- "that b**ch is crazy."
Tanning Mom shot back ... saying, "She's the biggest a**hole in the world. She's fake, she's fat, her t*ts are fake, she's disgusting."
Yet, after all that ... she continued, "When this is all said and done, I'd like to meet up with 'Snoopy'."
Yes, she called her Snoopy ... and she probably owes Charles Schultz an apology.
Gotta give her this one
Can this crazy woman PLEASE just go away? Or better yet, the cameras need to go away. She is obviously mentally ill. Her 15 minutes of INFAMY are O-V-E-R!!!!
HMMMM. I think this lady needs to be evaluated for
competency to care for a 5 year old. And not just
for the tanning!
Just let this wrinkled old hag wither and deal with her melanomas.
Is she drunk ..On something? She just seems like some one ON something....to many fake UV rays lady !!!
How does she pick up her kids from school?
Note to teenagers out there. This is what your skin will look like if you use tanning booths and fry in the sun. Just sayin.....
Tanorexia is the least of her problems. Is this woman ever sober?
But Snooki isn't fat anymore. She also isn't unnaturally tan anymore since she was impregnated by a high school football team. This tanning mom is quite possibly the ugliest "human" I've ever laid eyes on. I mean good god, she looks like an oversized muppet, and has as much of a brain as one.
I can't think of one person that this lady has the right to call ugly. I've not seen a more hideous creature even in the movies.
This woman needs to go back to her tailor and get herself some help.
this lady is gross to look at, what drugs is she on?
this made me laugh so hard, shes hilarious!!!! keep it coming tmz


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In the 3rd grade I told Tim
"My father's gay", because
I liked the way his dimples curled
under his eyes when he laughed,
and I knew he'd laugh a lot
when I told him.
There was an orange silence,
and then the pattering of
recovery out of my mouth as
I told him instead, that I could
count to a thousand and three.
A thousand and three?
A thousand and three I said.
I can also light candles
with my pinky toes, and sometimes
when I think hard enough dogs
go off like car alarms.
I'm a selkie in the water, only salt,
and there are three dots on
my stomach that spell
out "Hello? Is anybody in there?".
Occasionally I speak italian,
and my sister hums in fluent
violin. I've never been to
Montana but I want to live
there when I'm older because
I feel like it'd look nice on paper.
I count constellations in my free time.
Also sometimes, I'm
a werewolf.
A werewolf?
A werewolf.
One time our electricity
and water got shut off for
8 days and I hardly
bathed, not once.
But you're a werewolf? he said
Yes I'm a werewolf, but
it's more of an optional
thing for me if law school doesn't
work out.
Tim nodded his little 10 year old
fingers and scratched under
his eye like he could peel
away his freckles and hide
beneath them.
That's nice, he said, and
repositioned himself at his
desk as to turn away from
Tim and I never talked
again because I hated
the way his cheeks plummed out
when he laughed, and because
he told our entire 3rd grade class
that my father was gay.


text:
Glass Doctor of Southwest Florida 6485 Taylor Rd , Naples, FL 34109
Home Glass Repair
Glass Doctor of Southwest Florida can give your home just the right touch with custom interior glass décor including glass tabletops, shower enclosures, mirrors and more.
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text:
Things to do today: 06.21.11
Events happening in the Coastal Bend Tuesday
COASTAL BEND - SUPPORT GROUP: Alzheimer's support group meets at 5:30 p.m. Tuesday at the Alice Library, 401 E. Third St., Alice. Free. Information: 361-664-3801.
DANCE: A dance with music by Bud Whittington Band is from 6 to 8:45 p.m. Tuesday at the Lindale Senior Center, 3135 Swantner Drive. Cost: $3. Information: 986-0531.
TEXERCISE: Texercise free fitness seminar series is from 2:30 to 3:30 p.m. Tuesday in the conference center at Doctors Regional Hospital, 3315 S. Alameda St. This is a 12-week series for participants ages 45 and older. Registration is required. The event continues Mondays through Aug. 29. Free. Information/registration: 361-761-1133 or ccmedicalcenter.com


text:
The play, from the creator and star of HBO's "Curb Your Enthusiasm" and co-creator of "Seinfeld," will be directed by Anna D. Shapiro. In addition to writer David, the cast will also feature Jayne Houdyshell, Jake Cannavale, Jonny Orsini, Rosie Perez and Jerry Adler. Additional casting will be announced at a later date.
Fish in the Dark is described as "a comedy about a death in the family."
The production will have scenic design by Todd Rosenthal, costume design by Ann Roth and lighting design by Brian MacDevitt.
Fish is produced by Scott Rudin.
Tickets, priced $65-$155, are now available at Telecharge.com.


text:
Address:3150 Rt. 22W Branchburg, NJ 08876
Hours of Operation:9:00 AM - 6:00 PM Sunday 9:00 AM - 9:00 PM Monday-Friday 9:00 AM - 8:00 PM Saturday
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Kellogg's Corn Flakes w/ King Kong Empty Cereal Box
Kellogg's Corn Flakes w/ King Kong Empty Cereal Box
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Sold Date: 02/08/2012
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Check out my other items ! Kellogg's Corn Flakes King Kong Collectible Cereal Box. Empty Box from 2006. Very good condition with minor shelf wear. Smoke free home.Visit my store for similar listings. Be sure to add me to your favorites list ! Location: Bin Q4
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Enjoy a leisurely meal at Postern Grille, located off the lobby of Sheraton Framingham Hotel & Conference Center.
Framingham, Massachusetts can trace its history to 1647 when the original township was settled along the Old Connecticut Path on the banks of the Sudbury River. Interestingly, the city was originally known as Framlingham - to this day the reason why the "L" was dropped is still not known.
Book your Framingham stay at Sheraton Framingham Hotel & Conference Center with our best available rates:
Book online today, or call 866-716-8120 and ask for our best available rates.
During the years ahead of the American Civil War and during the war itself, Framingham served as an important rallying point for the Abolitionist movement. Similar to much of the United States in the post-World War II baby boom, Framingham quickly saw an influx of residents to newly constructed, ranch-style homes.
Today, Framingham serves as a key catalyst for the continued economic growth and success in the local community and the entire New England region. Within close proximity to our Framingham hotel are the corporate headquarters for several Fortune 500 companies. These Framingham corporate headquarters include TJX (parent company for T.J. Maxx and BJ's Wholesale Club) and Staples, with Boston Scientific in neighboring Natick, MA. Top candidates for these employers and other prosperous companies are often recruited from Framingham State University.
Recently renovated, our hotel is located 18 miles west of Boston and convenient to highways in all directions. Enjoy our free self-parking facilities and allow our shuttle to transport you within a five mile radius, perfect for accessing plenty of things to do in Framingham
Enjoy a leisurely meal at Postern Grille, located off the lobby of Sheraton Framingham Hotel & Conference Center.
Starwood Preferred Guest creates every experience with members in mind. Award-winning benefits, and amazing global portfolio, valuable redemptions and more choices are just the beginning. See what makes SPG special, and learn how you can start earning rewards on your next stay.Join SPG Today


text:
Stretched to Breaking Point
At this point I move beyond what was discussed at the conference to restate how I see the global picture today. There are two themes related to oil supply and demand that have been getting progressively more tense since the low oil prices that marked the first phase of the credit and oil crisis in 2008. Both of these are set against the evolving credit crisis which threatens to dwarf supply constraints with even more severe demand destruction.
Violence, unrest and tension in the Middle East
It does not appear that the Middle East can now go back to the undemocratic, authoritarian but otherwise generally stable regimes that previously held sway for several decades now. Any number of scenarios could further disrupt livelihoods and oil supply in the region.
How long can China increase oil consumption?
Despite global oil supply breaking slightly above the plateau range of the last few years, most of the growth in demand for oil in China has been met by demand destruction in OECD countries. How much longer before Chinese growth (ie. more than just a 'slowdown') is capped by lack of oil or lack of a world economy to export to?
From Phil Hart; http://www.theoildrum.com/node/9232#more
Americans killed annually by diseases due to excess weight: 280,000
Increased risk of heart disease for obese people: Double to triple
Increased risk of gallstones for obese people: Double to triple
Increased risk of diabetes for very obese people: 40 times greater
Obesity rate among the general U.S. population: 18 percent
Obesity rate among vegetarians: 6 percent
Obesity rate among vegans: 2 percent
U.S. children who are overweight or obese: 25 percent
U.S. vegetarian children who are overweight or obese: 8 percent
U.S. children who eat the recommended levels of fruits, vegetables, and grains: 1 percent
U.S. vegan children who eat the recommended levels of fruits, vegetables, and grains: 50 percent
During the last century, society squandered 500 million years of captured sunlight on drag races, traffic jams, private jets and overheated office buildings
Oil company cheerleaders proclaiming huge supplies of oil are dead wrong. Peak oil is as real as rain, and it is here now. Not 2050. Not 2020. Now. Oil production has been flat since 2005. This is not by choice. The producers cannot increase production because new fields cannot keep pace with declining production from old fields. The plateau is the top of the global depletion curve. Furthermore, this end of energy growth only accounts for volume. Energy quality and net-energy are falling like stones as environmental devastation increases. Every producing oil field on earth is in decline, unless it is brand new, and peak discoveries are well behind us. Meanwhile, the aggregate decline rate appears to be about 5 per cent per year. To maintain world production, we would need to bring a new Saudi Arabia – equivalent to three billion barrels annually - into full production every three years. There exists on earth not one single promising field that remotely approaches those requirements.
When you read or hear about "10 billion barrels" of oil discovered somewhere, here is how to think about that - a third of that is probably not recoverable or entirely illusory. The recoverable portion will require a billion barrels of oil equivalent energy to produce; in the tar sands it would take three billion barrels. What is left, about five or six billion barrels, equates to about a two-month supply for humanity. Two months. We will not "run out of oil" because, simply, we will never get it all. What petroleum geologists point out is that all oil fields have a production curve, a peak and a decline. Therefore, the earth's total supply has a peak and decline.
But that is not all, the volume decline includes a decline in quality and net energy. As oil fields reach old age, energy returned on energy invested plummets and production costs soar for a lower quality product. Over the last century, oil producers have high-graded earth's energy storehouse, and the best net-energy reserves disappeared 70 years ago. Oil in its heyday – the 1930 and 1940s – produced 100:1 net-energy, a hundred barrels out for one barrel of energy invested. Today, oil fields range from 20:1 to 10:1. The United States average is 11:1. We are now digging into the 3:1 net-energy tar sands. Energy expert Howard Odum warned of the net energy curve in the 1970s and geologist Marion King Hubbert graphed the oil decline in the 1950s.
Charles Hall, at the State University of New York, has calculated that it is not possible to run our complex civilisation on a net-energy below about 6:1 - because society needs that reserve energy to run its transportation, agriculture, health systems and so forth. The tar sands 3:1 net energy is simply pathetic. A salmon does better chasing herring. An Amish farmer gets 10:1 net energy with hand tools. I suspect most of the industry cheerleaders talking about "giant discoveries" and "energy gluts" know this. Still, they spin every new oil discovery as an arrival in the Promised Land, pump stock plays and promote their industry. In our world, that is legal. But it is not really honest. In April 2011, chief economist of the International Energy Agency Fatih Birol revealed what the industry knows: "We think that the crude oil production has already peaked, in 2006."
And since the population is growing, peak oil per capita occurred in 1979. We have now reached the absolute peak. Without increasing energy sources, we cannot increase economic activity. We can print money and harvest the earth's assets and make it look like growth – for a while – but the piper will be paid. Nature shall not be mocked. In 2008, when the economy appeared to be roaring and traders pitched mortgage-backed securities on unsuspecting clients, energy production had ceased growing. As a result, the oil price almost tripled from $50 per barrel to $147. This equated to a $3 trillion increase to the world's annual energy bill, which sucked discretionary income from every other market and helped crash the global economy.
When the economy collapsed, oil prices fell. But as economies recover even slightly, the price will rise again since supply is restrained. Blaming the US President Barack Obama for rising energy prices is another con job. Blame nature. She just cannot make more of the stuff fast enough. During the last century, society burned the best half of recoverable hydrocarbons that represented 500 million years of captured sunlight; a one-time storehouse of high quality, concentrated energy. We squandered it on drag races, traffic jams, private jets and overheated office buildings. We burned this valuable asset and called it "income." If you did that in your home, you would go bankrupt. Peak oil is real. The consequences – at best – will be a slowly scaled-down industrial civilisation. If we continue to ignore these facts, the consequences will be far worse. Nature just is not sentimental.


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Thin-film Antifuses for Pellistor Type Gas Sensors
Kovalgin, A.Y. and Holleman, J. and Berg van den, A. and Wallinga, H. (2001) Thin-film Antifuses for Pellistor Type Gas Sensors. In: Semiconductor Sensor and Actuator Technology, SeSens, November 30, 2001, Veldhoven, The Netherlands.
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Introduce your ear drums to Indians (Søren Løkke Juul of Copenhagen) with a sampling from his upcoming debut album, brand new Atoms for Peace (a.k.a. Thom Yorke), and a lofty mix with fresh tracks from Ra Ra Riot, Jim James of My Morning Jacket, and Hooray for Earth, all in this week's DailyCandy Jams v.86.
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At DailyCandy, our editors relentlessly seek the genuine, the unique, and the next. We love the thrill of the "find." We never stop seeking what's new in fashion, food, and fun. Discover what you love at DailyCandy, and share your finds with us. What's your DailyCandy?


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Genre: Mystery/Suspense/Thriller, Suspense
Masterful storyteller Koontz delivers perhaps his most eerie and unusual tale to date. The timeline in this amazing story is compact, and readers will be swept along as they try to unravel hints and clues as to the true nature of both the protagonists and the unfolding drama. Unpredictably spine-chilling and terrifying, this is a story readers won't soon forget.
Since birth Addison Goodheart has known he must avoid other people at all costs, for their reaction to his face and eyes is swift and deadly. Addison's mother kept him hidden in the rural countryside until he was eight years old; then, unable to stand it anymore, she sent him away. Fortunately, upon arriving in the city, Addison was discovered by a man who evoked the same horrified reaction from people. For years they lived deep below the city, only venturing out at night. However, six years ago, Addison's father figure was murdered. Alone since then, Addison is intrigued when he crosses paths with a young woman hiding from dangerous enemies. Reclusive Gwyneth can't be around other people too long, but she is on a mission to avenge the murder of her father. In Addison, Gwyneth finds a fellow fugitive from humanity. But her enemies are drawing closer and an hour of reckoning is at hand. (BANTAM, Dec., 352 pp., $28.00)
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To the Editor: Dr. Buchwald has made many contributions to our understanding of the highly controversial "functional somatic syndromes," and she and Dr. Afari have offered a useful overview of chronic fatigue syndrome.
Dr. Buchwald's own thorough research has convincingly demonstrated that neither viruses nor disturbances of the immune system are the cause of chronic fatigue syndrome, but she and Dr. Afari still seem to want to sit on the fence with their vague "heterogenous…complex…multifactorial etiology" (p. 221), a position also recently espoused by Evengard et al. (1). I wonder if that is why the authors paid no attention to the full report from the Royal College of Psychiatrists of Great Britain (2) and the shorter but well-focused review by Salit (3). Both solidly reinforced the conclusion that there is no scientific support for an organic or physical cause but much to suggest an etiology of psychological factors.
The authors acknowledged the usefulness of considering chronic fatigue syndrome as a "functional somatic syndrome." However, it is a bit surprising that they shied away from acknowledging the almost complete unanimity that the etiology of fibromyalgia is psychological (4–7) since they are aware of the many studies that have shown considerable overlap with the functional somatic syndrome characterized by the pain labeled as "fibromyalgia."
Researchers who only use a narrow phenomenological perspective to explain the functional somatic syndromes may become locked into the dead end of trying to correlate the functional somatic syndromes with DSM diagnostic categories. The truth is that broader psychodynamic understandings offer much more coherent and credible explanations (4, 5). Indeed, the severe limitations of the DSM categorical framework may be responsible for the current fashionable but wasteful practice of trying to establish a genetic inheritance predisposition. The notion of a genetic cause for the purely subjective pain or tiredness of fibromyalgia or chronic fatigue is almost hilarious.
My strongest reservation about the review concerns the authors' praise and apparent endorsement of support groups. Far from being "well informed," support groups are often ill informed and heavily biased and provide patients with misinformation. Patient advocacy groups are often vehemently antipsychiatric, and certainly in Canada, some of their members espouse a hostile and malicious attitude toward experts who disagree, not with their symptoms—we fully acknowledge those—but with their etiological theories. The encouragement they provide is often quite detrimental. It is toward a "sick victim" position, rather than toward psychological help and active physical exercise.
For all of the patients I have been asked to assess who claimed to have one or another of the functional somatic syndromes, I don't think there has been one who has not had more than sufficient psychological reasons to have developed their symptoms.
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and I really must say thank you to Olka and Eteri for help me to the collection of information about Mike Patton and his projects and check this information on my art.
for the love of mike patton, the responsable, the genious behind this infographic is pedalja!
sorry about that! haha. something is happen' since i ate; it's gotta be the sunflower…
congrats! such a great idea! ;)
pedalja:I glad so much that my art about Mike Patton really likes many people. Love ya!
The more disinformation the better, that's what I always say! © Mike Patton
art by pedalja :)
a cool infographic by
a genious calledSvinoy Hryaschik


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Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Josh Freeman is hiding one handsome mug under his helmet -- so we asked him if good looking QBs get a pass in the talent department? We're looking at you, USC alums!
Check out TMZ on TV -- click here to see your local listings!
Show me a picture of a hot quarterback and I'll let you know.
Where's the picture of the hot quarterback?
Sorry Josh, but you ain't hot and you BETTER play better this year or Schiano will dump your butt. You now have the weapons to use, so go use them.
He is hot.if its wouldve been a white guy there wouldve been more comments..us American are so backward and care so much how other think. This world is colorful lets deal with it.
He's a hottie!
You must be kidding me. This guy is not good looking at all. What a joke.
Sarah, You're out of your mind. He most definitely is incredibly handsome!
Thought this was going to be another coming out of the closet story. Maybe next week.


text:
Directing Theater 101 - 10 Steps to Successful Productions
Wilma Marcus Chandler Price: $15.30
This guide provides new directors with the knowledge and tools needed to produce successful shows
Drawing on years of experience directing and producing plays, Wilma Marcus Chandler covers such topics as how to read and analyze a script to really understand it
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Tips are provided for how to hold auditions as well as information on how to talk to the cast and crew
And how to listen!
New directors will learn how to stage a play, using blocking, body movement, stage business, exits and entrances
She also shares skills for preparing a production, including rehearsal techniques, time lines, budgets, royalties, and publicity
Also included is a valuable discussion on how to prepare for a career in directing
Written especially for the inexperienced or young director, particular emphasis is given to ...
- developing confidence in a new director's aesthetic judgments and choices
- how to develop a concept for production based on understanding the text
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- information for continuing to train
- suggestions for further reading and thinking
Makes a great gift for an aspiring director!
"The chapters on play analysis, fundamentals of directing, production preparation, auditions, rehearsals, problem solving, production people, performance, and continuing training provide a sound overview of the profession for the novice
Of special note is the inclusion of the complete text of Lady Gregory's one-act play The Rising of the Moon
Chandler introduces it in the chapter on play analysis and effectively uses this play as the context for discussing further directorial decisions, such as set, lighting, sound effects, and costuming, throughout the following chapters" ~ Library Journal Xpress Reviews
Related Titles
- What Every Girl Should Know Monica Byrne
- Coney Island Christmas Donald Margulies from Grace Paley
- Farce of Nature Jessie Jones & Nicholas Hope & Jamie Wooten
- Funny Little Thing Called Love Jessie Jones & Nicholas Hope & Jamie Wooten
- Matchbox Theatre - Thirty Short Entertainments Michael Frayn
- Great American Trailer Park Musical Betsy Kelso & David Nehls


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Unfortunately I missed the first episode, for the most part, because I thought it was going to be a repeat. I must have read the TV Guide wrong.
I…okay, I'm not proud of myself. But I really, really like them. Kelly (I will not be referring to her as "Kelly Jo") is nice, even though she breaks out the adoring gaze way too often. Gil is hilarious. He and JimBob are similar in that they both act like big kids, but since Gil, unlike JimBob, is not totally useless and is a competent worker and and doting father to ALL OF HIS CHILDREN, it's endearing, not annoying.
I love these kids. They're SO well-spoken compared to the Duggars. And they actually enjoy each other! I know the Duggars are all "best friends" with each other, but except for Hannie and Jackson, none of them genuinely seem to enjoy the company of the other siblings. The Bateses are allowed to tease and joke, but there's no malice or cruelty behind it, either. They love each other. They have fun together. It's so nice to see. The Duggars just never seem to enjoy themselves or each other.
And holy shit, individual personalities! Girls getting dirty! Smart, well-spoken kids! Which I really wasn't expecting, I'm embarrassed to say. (In my defense I still think that Kelly comes off as sweet, but perhaps not especially bright.) Genuine generosity, kindness and gratitude towards each other! Gil and Kelly are really succeeding in areas the Duggars have failed.
I was watching with my mother, who loathes the Duggars (well, she loathes Michelle; she just thinks the rest of them are boring as hell), and she kept commenting on how nice it was to see a mother holding and playing with more than the new baby. And that's really my favorite thing about the Bates parents. I have to admit, I'm sold on the notion that while they're chasing number 20, they really do love and enjoy each of their children just as much as the one that came after it.
Maybe my mind will change as they become more TV-savvy, maybe my mind will change once they start bleating their political ideals (which will never not bug me - not that they express themselves; I just find some of their views offensive.) But for now I actually LIKE them, in ways I've never really liked most of the Duggars.
Also, the kids are getting much less homely as they age. Just putting that out there. Not that I like them any more or less because of it; just saying, most of the truly unfortunate-looking kids are really very cute now. (Uh, please note that the above is just a randomly-chosen picture…I'm not calling those particular kids ugly.)
Nathan is totally gay. Just saying. That boy pings my gaydar harder than Josiah Duggar.
I still can't tell the middle boys apart…also still having trouble with Josie and Katie…but I'll get there. I only have occasional problem telling the Duggars apart these days!
My favorite kid so far is Tori. I love a kid who can tease their siblings, but then crack up laughing just as hard when they start teasing her. She's so bubbly and seems to love life.
Even Gil's parents are adorable! I get the feeling that Alyssa takes after Mama Jane; I wish we had seen an older photo of the grandparents to compare.
Can't help it; I like them. For now, I'm going to be having a hard time leveling vicious sarcasm at this family.
(Also, if anyone knows where I can find this show to download, let me know. iTunes never has what I want…)
(as always, most Bates family photos from Gil's website. You can usually tell by the telltale labels he puts on them.)
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