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|The Face of Musical Genius
Joel's Top Paul Simon Songs:
Joel's Top Simon and Garfunkel Songs:
|The Face of Musical Genius
I think it's all creative people, Joel. There were some of us who would sit in my creative writing classroom well past the time the class ended just writing away listening to music on our laptops.ReplyDelete
My Little Town.
...and Scarborough Fair just paints such a vivid word picture in my head, I've always loved it.
I'm right there with ya! :)ReplyDelete


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Home » News » Energy
State rejects Antrim wind project
The 6-3 decision by a subcommittee of the New Hampshire Site Evaluation Committee Thursday came as a surprise to Antrim town officials, who had supported the wind farm because of the revenue it would bring - up to $8,700,000 in taxes over the life of the project - as well as its clean-energy claims.
"We felt the majority of the town was in favor of the project and we were representing the majority of the town," Selectman Michael Genest said Monday.
The panel denied a certificate to the project for Antrim Wind Energy, a subsidiary of Portsmouth-based Eolian Renewable Energy.
"We are obviously disappointed by the decision and we disagree with the decision," Eolian CEO Jack Kenworthy said.
He said the company will wait to see the panel's decision in writing and weigh its options; Eolian will have 30 days to appeal.
The 10-turbine project would have had a 30-megawatt capacity.
"The committee deliberated for three full days after hearing more than 11 days of evidence and ultimately decided the project would cause an adverse effect to the aesthetics of the area primarily because of the visual impact," SEC attorney Michael Iacopino said.
The project's nearness to the New Hampshire Audubon-held Willard Pond Wildlife Sanctuary played a part in the decision, as well as the opposition voiced both in testimony and written statements.
"Audubon are very pleased with the decision," Michael J. Bartlett, president of New Hampshire Audubon, said Monday.
Iacopino said the size of the turbines - 500 feet from the tip of the blade to the base - would have made the wind turbines the largest standing structures in the state. He said the tallest building in Manchester is 275 feet.
Selectman Genest noted the state has approved other wind farm projects, including Groton and Lempster. A 37-turbine wind farm in the Newfound Lake-Mount Cardigan area has also been proposed.
"They put these up in other areas of the state that are just as beautiful as the Willard Pond area," Genest said.
The Willard Pond Sanctuary is about 1,600 acres, Audubon's Bartlett said, and is part of a super-sanctuary of 33,000 acres of undeveloped land.
"New Hampshire Audubon in general as an organization supports wind energy, but it always has to be qualified with 'properly sited' and we didn't think this project was properly sited and the Site Evaluation Committee agreed," Bartlett said.
Kenworthy said Eolian had made a number of compromises on the project, including a settlement with the Appalachian Mountain Club not to have nighttime lights.
"The way the agreement worked, there would be 808 acres that would be conserved and that would be on a project that would have a disturbance area of about only 60 acres," Kenworthy said.
Fred Ward of neighboring Stoddard said he is thrilled by the state's decision.
"Those would be the tallest turbines in the state," he said.
Ward said in his written testimony to the SEC that the turbines would have been the same distance to Stoddard center as the center of Antrim.
"Everybody objects about how they look, but I'm more concerned about the noise that comes from them," he said.
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subset: commoncrawl


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Building Green
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[videorecording (DVD)]
disc 2. Doors and windows, exterior finishes, interior finishes, floors and closets
disc 3. Lighting, water systems, landscaping, interior design, the grand finale.
Disc one: Breaking ground
The foundation
Framing and roofing
Straw bales
Disc two: Doors and windows
Exterior finishes
Interior finishes
Floors and closets
Disc three: Lighting
Water systems
Interior design
The grand finale.
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Great resource for those considering building an eco-friendly home. It's a bit corny, and has bad dialogue, but the info you need is there.
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Added Mar 22, 2013
by lucyl12
Dunsborough, Aus...
I made this one from a long maxi dress with a top half that was too big and a nasty top that I found in the op shop. Inspiration from a lovely dress worn by a stylish french girl (aka our lovely au pair) and I managed to create this lovely drapey romantic and VERY comfy dress. Casual for day, could be dresses up for evening. Love it. I'm getting better.
more pics and details here
Mar 23, 2013, 07.56 AMby Mary Athey
lovely dress and great photos x
Mar 22, 2013, 09.24 PMby asperge11
Love it!
Mar 22, 2013, 04.52 PMby khatsu
This looks like the kind of dress I'd wear all summer! Comfy, cute, and goes everywhere.
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Being a single dad was never on Michael Young's agenda. Yet with the sudden loss of his wife, that's exactly the role he has. On his best days, he thinks he can handle it. On his worst Luckily, family friend Angie Bartlett has his back, easily stepping in to help out.
Lately, though, something has changed.
Michael is noticing exactly how gorgeous Angie is, and how single she is. She's constantly in his thoughts and he feels an attraction he never expected. Does he… (más)
Editor: Harlequin Superromance (01 de agosto de 2012)
Format: EPUB
Número de páginas: 288 páginas
Tamaño del archivo: 319 KB
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text: Best Celebrity Style | Nov. 23, 2012 Kate Moss, Miranda Kerr, and Jessica Biel Take Top Spots in Our Top 10 by Hannah Weil 11/23/12 9 Reactions 21 Shares Print 0 3 18 0 0 A short week by no means meant a week short on style. The AMAs red carpet was just the starting point for a glamorous week that included Jessica Biel and Scarlett Johansson making the rounds for Hitchcock in their cocktail dresses of choice, while in Miranda Kerr and Kate Moss's case, street style proved just as compelling as any dressed-up ensemble (so much so that we just had to include Miranda twice). To round it out, we drew inspiration from Emma Stone's sweet Winter styling and Diane Kruger's ever-chic event-ready wear. Click on to see who took spots in our top 10 this week. Source: Film Magic, Getty What's Your Reaction? 0 0 0 0 0 0 Jessica Biel stopped by the Late Show in a colorblocked Roland Mouret sheath. Source: Film Magic 1 / 10 What's Your Reaction? 0 0 0 0 0 0 Kate Moss worked her styling magic on an all-black ensemble. Source: Getty 2 / 10 What's Your Reaction? 0 0 0 0 0 0 Diane Kruger perfected evening chic in a Jason Wu jumpsuit and leopard-print coat. Source: Getty 3 / 10 What's Your Reaction? 0 0 0 0 0 0 Miranda Kerr once again proved her status as one of the most stylish moms on the planet in a miniskirt and Isabel Marant boots. Source: Film Magic 4 / 10 What's Your Reaction? 0 0 0 0 0 0 Nicole Richie took the stage in a gorgeous black maxi and a jeweled headpiece at the Halo Awards. Source: Getty 6 / 10 What's Your Reaction? 0 0 0 0 0 0 At it again, Miranda Kerr styled up a slit maxi with a cool-girl, daytime twist. Source: INFphoto.com 6 / 10 What's Your Reaction? 0 0 0 0 0 0 Emma Stone styled up her Winter essentials with a pair of glittery oxfords. Source: FameFlynet 7 / 10 What's Your Reaction? 0 0 0 0 0 0 Scarlett Johansson kept it classic in a black Giambattista Valli coat while promoting Hitchcock. Source: Getty 8 / 10 What's Your Reaction? 0 0 0 0 0 0 Jennifer Lawrence gave a white button-down the sexy treatment with a sheer-hemmed miniskirt. Source: Getty 9 / 10 What's Your Reaction? 0 0 0 0 0 0 Nikki Reed celebrated at the AMAs afterparty in a slick leather-sleeved blazer. Source: Getty 11 / 10 0 3 18 0 0 Read More Miranda KerrTop 10Celebrity StyleJessica BielKate Moss Celebrity Style Your Fancy Skirt Is Taking on a Whole New Scene, Thanks to Diane Kruger 10 hours ago This Is Chapter 2 of Selena's Denim Cutoff Love Affair 12 hours ago What Will They Wear? The 2014 Emmys Red Carpet Predictions Are Here! 14 hours ago When Anna Wintour Takes On the Ice Bucket Challenge, You Know It's in Vogue 14 hours ago It Was Jessica Alba's Night, but Which Dame's Dress Would You Kill For? 17 hours ago This Week's Stars Bring Bicoastal Glamour 18 hours ago Kate Moss 10 Years Later, Kate Moss Is Back For More 1 week ago Don't Make Naomi Campbell Turn a Water Gun on You 2 weeks ago Kate Moss's Bikini Tour Takes an Unexpected Turn 2 weeks ago Kim Kardashian and Kanye West Party With Too Many Stars to Count 2 weeks ago Which Celebrity Should You Go on Vacation With? 7/03 Kate Moss and Naomi Campbell's Vacation Snaps Could Be a Vogue Spread 6/30 Jessica Biel When Jessica Biel Plays It Casual, This Is What Happens 2 weeks ago Inside the One Night Each Year When Actors Get to Be Fans 7/16 Jessica Biel and Justin Timberlake Celebrate Father's Day With Golf 6/16 75 Unforgettable Met Gala Moments 5/05 It's All About Duos in This Week's Can't-Miss Shots! 5/03 The Least-Sexy Outfit in the World Looks Amazing on Jessica Biel 4/30 Miranda Kerr Pitch Perfect — Stars Get Their Game On! 2 days ago 29 Celebrities Who Aren't Afraid to Strip to Their Skivvies 2 weeks ago Untangling the Web of Connections in the Bieber-Bloom Brawl 2 weeks ago You'll Crack Up at Colbert's Take on Justin Bieber vs. Orlando Bloom 2 weeks ago Miranda Kerr's Sexy New Ad Campaign Popped Up at the Perfect Time 2 weeks ago 85 Stars Being Sweet With Their Moms 3 weeks ago Get a Personalized Fashion & Beauty Newsletter! Help us customize your newsletter by selecting your interests (optional): Street Style Fashion & Beauty News Celebrity Style Beauty Tips What's Your Reaction? 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Reactions Link Love Just shower the designer with diamonds . . . or heels — The Cut This is the 1 thing you should consider when you shop for jeans — InStyle Give your button-down a bright update — HuffPost Style Your Fall tote must be 2 things: classic and practical — Lucky Condé Nast is selling Fairchild Fashion Media — get the scoop — Racked Have you been using Anna Wintour's 1 styling hack? — Who What Wear All retailers are worried about these 4 things . . . — Fashionista Only some models can strut with this much confidence — The Fashion Spot Are you abiding by these all-black-outfit rules? — Stylelist


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Picture is courtesey of Pantheon Macroeconomics and has also been posted on Twitter.]]>
Pictures are courtesey of Pantheon Macroeconomics and have also been posted at Twitter.]]>
I will be watching this closely for a move higher—or a move back down into its post-crisis range—in coming months.
Picture is courtesey of Pantheon Macroeconomics, and has also been posted at Twitter.]]>
The overarching investment conclusion from the points above is obvious. The focus, hysteria and obsession around central bank policy will continue for it is increasingly clear that politicians and financial markets have collectively put all their (and our) eggs in one basket. If central bankers were to secretly convene in a room to decide applying a dose of Volcker's medicine the fallout would be devastating. Such hawkish coordination may seem a ludicrous proposition, but the margin between blunders, policy errors and deliberate policy changes is a blurred one. Having your success as investor depend on central bank policy may seem a merciful alternative to the chaos that prevailed first in 2008 with the global financial system on the brink of collapse and then later in 2012 with sovereign defaults and break-up fears in the eurozone. However, if central bank intervention and economic volatility are joined at the hip then it suddenly looks like much more like a Faustian deal.
Whether it be the Fed's exit policy, the ECB's non-action policy or the BOJ's surrender to fiscal dominance, investors not only need to hope that each of them get the balance right, but also that they are allowed time to adjust their portfolios to any changes. But herein also lies the problem. The era of central banks as eminences grises is over and it is not clear to me that their new found power and freedom to deploy their vast arsenal of theoretical and practical tools will not end well.
Wanted: A dynamic strategy to trade volatility
The introduction above is a suitable synopsis I hope for introducing one of the most interesting investment strategy pieces that I have read in a while [1]. Written by Christopher A Cole, an investment manager, it operationalises a number of the themes above in a way that it is worthwhile for investors to think about in my view. As a founding partner of Artemis Capital Management, a hedge fund specialising in giving investors exposure to volatility, Cole's piece could simply be seen as marketing material. But discarding his arguments on this background would be a mistake.
Indeed, Cole is predictably vague on the actual implementation of an active volatility trading strategy [2] more so that he lays out a conceptual framework. The main point in a nutshell is the following. Volatility is an asset class in itself and should be traded accordingly. The best way to look at volatility in this perspective is to trade its term structure and to recognize that the market price of risk differs across maturities captured exactly in different prices for options at different points in time.
This gives rise to the notion of known unknowns and unknown unknowns taken, as it were, from none other than Donald Rumsfeld. This concept was introduced in earlier versions of this argument presented by Artemis and Cole, the key is the following.
Volatility trading is about putting a price on known unknowns and unknown unknowns. (…) The known unknown crash is predictable in retrospect, but the unknown unknown crash is unpredictable even in retrospect; its cause is never truly understood.
This will appear vague to many investors, but the main take-away in my view is to have a dynamic strategy towards trading volatility. Most investors tend to be either long or short (flat) volatility relative to a benchmark long risk position. As a way forward from this benchmark position Cole introduces the concept of Crisis Alpha employed by Artemis to give exposure to volatility. The particulars are unclear, but the main point is valid I think.
My emphasis
Many investors tend to think about volatility only in terms of direction: long or short volatility. Hence, within this limited view, there are either tail risk funds that lose money waiting for a black swan that may never appear or anti-fragile short volatility funds that are a 100-year flood away from the inevitable blow-up. Crisis alpha, although skewed toward the long side, takes a balanced path, relying on relative value volatility trading. This approach is conceptually similar to trading fixed income across the yield curve.
While this may not be a crucial innovation for seasoned volatility traders, such a perspective on volatility greatly enhances the way traditional long-only and long/short managers look at the concept of hedging. The obvious question that imposes itself after accepting this notion is then how to implement such a volatility trading strategy. I hope to have something substantial to say about this later, but looking at volatility through the lens of a term structure already allows for a much richer and powerful perspective relative to being either long or short volatility. After all, looking at a curve, measuring steepness, flatness etc relative to its history are all tried and tested means to knit together asset allocation strategies in other markets. In many ways, this perspective on volatility could go a long way to democratize volatility as an asset class for investors otherwise not familiar with or inclined to step in the often highly quantitative world of volatility trading.
We are all short volatility
The conceptual framework for thinking about volatility described above is, arguably, universal and independent of market regime. In order to link the framework to the current regime, we need to introduce one more concept. Enter the notion of the synthetic short volatility position carried by most investors.
The logic is simple.
Alpha creation in for most strategies can be decomposed into two drivers in the form of asset (eg stock or sector rotation) selection and being short volatility. The relative weight between these two factors depends on overall asset correlation. When intra-asset and inter-asset correlation is low alpha generation will tend to be driven by asset selection. As correlation increases, the source of alpha creation collapses into a synthetic short volatility position.
The following chart provides powerful support for this argument. Indeed, across market regimes most active managers' return remain substantially correlated to a short S&P volatility position,
Source: Christopher Cole, April 2014
This is a crucial insight in my view and highlights two important points.
Firstly, it ties a nice ribbon on the argument above. The relationship implied by the chart suggests that no matter the particulars of a given active manager's strategy, it will tend to be positively correlated to a short volatility position. If you accept this proposition it also becomes clear that most active managers would benefit from having a framework to manage this synthetically short exposure. Remember, that this is not merely about naively hedging out your implied short volatility position, but by exposing yourself to volatility (long and short) using a deliberate and dynamic strategy [3].
Secondly, it provides an important perspective on the current market regime characterised, as it were, by the hunt for yield and investors' (reluctant) stretch for long risk asset exposure. Quite simply, it is my contention that aggressive central bank intervention has exacerbated the market's synthetic short volatility position and forced investors to double up on this already embedded position. This is a key point for Cole too;
Amateur traders are enjoying the Fed-induced liquidity spree by shorting volatility through ETPs, and they all believe they are geniuses for doing it, but in actuality they are more like the shoeshine boy of the past.
The current situation feels a lot like a carry trade on hyper speed to me. Investors are picking up dimes in front of the proverbial steamroller. However, contrary to plain vanilla carry trades (e.g. in FX markets) there is currently an almost diabolical element of reflexivity present. Central banks have been tasked with the job of making sure that the integrity of the financial system remains sound. They solved this task admirably during the depth of the crisis in 2008, but in the context of traditional central bank goals of price stability, employment and growth crisis measures are poor conduits. Indeed, it is increasingly clear in my view that such policies used to achieve traditional central banking objectives are likely sowing the seeds for the next crisis. As I noted above, this has all the elements of a Faustian deal and investors are being forced to take it.
The hunt for yield and new tail risks
Putting a name on unknown unknowns is impossible by definition, but the unravelling of the great hunt for yield could conceivably be argued to fall into this category in my view. It is famously said that there aren't supposed to be any free lunches for investors, but this tried and tested meme has not been entirely accurate in the past 3-5 years. Consequently stocks and bonds have appreciated together in the vacuum of missing assets left behind by central banks' policies.
We have seen a slight reversal of this in the past 6 months, but investors should take note of what happened during the initial tapering fright in the spring of 2013. US 10y yields moved higher and the S&P 500 sold off. It is difficult to imagine a more frightening price action than this. I remember a meeting with a long/short fund manager in May 2013 desperately asking me what the heck he should buy. He had been long bonds and had even timed it appropriately relative to the sell-off in equities, but to no avail. Needless to say, it was difficult for me to provide him with an appropriate answer. After all, telling an investor to buy volatility after the fact is of little use.
According to the rules of modern portfolio theory (MPT) as expounded by Markowitz this is not supposed to happen (or at least not that often). It should also then be clear that in a world where stocks and bonds are uncorrelated a long bond position serves as a proxy for a long volatility position. Indeed, in the current climate, the trade, for those who are adamant that we are in the final stages of an equity bubble, is easy. They should buy the US 10y note. If the US stock market were to collapse there is no way that the yield curve could stay as steep as is currently the case. US 10y yields would fall to reflect lower future growth prospects. The yield curve would bull-flatten with short rates pinned to floor and long rates falling on the back of a drop in risk assets. In the alternative scenario where the Fed hiked prematurely the yield curve would likely invert, but the result would be the same. Short rates would rally rapidly, long end rates would fall and the economy would likely fall into a recession. In many ways, such a catalyst for a recession and adverse stock market reaction would be a text-book case.
But it may not be that easy. Cole presents perhaps the most important point of his entire piece;
An interesting and perhaps inconvenient truth for MPT is that bond prices do not always move in the opposite direction of stock prices. MPT has been built on the basis of anti-correlation between bonds and stocks. But is there a risk of a paradigm shift? Recall the concept of the impossible object. Is it possible to enter into an environment where stocks and bonds collapse together? (…) If stocks and bonds decline together, investors will definitely want to own volatility.
This point neatly brings us full circle in so far as the imperative for trading volatility goes. Personally, I think that the risk of a sustained period where stocks and bonds decline together represent a major risk for investors. This would be particularly true if it occurred in the context of one or more central banks losing control over their reaction function and their policies. Remember here that while any central bank conceivably could always and everywhere steady the ship (eventually), the perception of rudderless central banks would be dangerous.
Another catalyst here in my view would be a hiccup in China, which drastically changed the flow of funds dynamics and forced China into a selling position of its FX reserves.
All this then is to simply say that investors should think about their volatility exposure. This may seem a disappointing dividend for wading through this essay, but sometimes the simplest messages are also the strongest. As a final note and before you sharpen your pen to write me a nasty gram. No, I am not on Mr Cole's payroll. I endorse his conceptual views but not his product. In fact, outsourcing your volatility exposure may not be an appropriate strategy at all. Finally, this essay has been short of concrete advice so let me end with one. Every investor should know her realised 12m correlation to a short straddle position on her benchmark equity (or credit) index. Once you have this information you are one step closer to a fully-fledged volatility exposure strategy.
[1] – The narrative laid out by Cole is not a new one for him or Artemis Capital Management. I first came across it in this presentation from March 2013. The updated CFA article linked above however is the most concise and updated version of the argument though.
[2] – After all, such a strategy is likely to be the raison d'etre for the business and he is unlikely to give much details away. If you want exposure to Artemis Capital Management's specific volatility strategy, you will have to invest in Mr Cole's funds.
[3] – This is deliberately vague. However, the point of thinking about volatility as a term structure stands. If the volatility curve is steep relative to its history you would put on a flattening strategy (for example buying short term volatility and selling long term volatility). This actual strategy employed is essential a question best answered with an empirical model.]]>
It is clear that the ECB is priming the market here for something. Although I am quite sure that this "something" will be underwhelming. One thing though that needs to be watched is the catalyst, in my view, for this recent jawboning by the ECB. Basically, the fact that the recent risk-off coincided with USD weakness has spooked the lords of finance in Frankfurt. A strong euro in conjunction with a stronger economy/higher assets is ok. But a dump in risk assets, sentiment and a stronger euro do not constitute a welcome combination.
Finally, and to compensate for the lack of musings here I leave you in the capable hands of Sherlock Holmes who, in the hands of Macro Man, cuts a representation to rival that of even Benedict Cumberbatch. In the most recent installment he has emerged from hibernation and re-enlisted Watson to take on the case of the curiously jumping dots.
I recommend you to read it in its entirety, it is worth the effort. Two points in particular are worth highlighting.
Firstly, Shirakawa provides a non-consensus yet apt narrative on the interaction between central bank's noble quest for price stability and the formation of asset bubbles. Drawing on the experienced of relative price stability that prevailed in Japan in the late 1980s an important link is drawn between the traditional pursuit of key central banking objective and sowing the seeds of financial instability.
(my emphasis)
During the bubble period of the mid- and late 1980s, the rate of inflation of the consumer price index (CPI) was quite subdued at about 1% (Figure 3). This was followed, as we all know, by a period of sub-par growth, financial crisis and deflation. This bears striking similarities with the Great Moderation experienced by many industrial economies in the mid-2000s; namely, a period of benign price developments that was followed by severe economic downturn and financial crisis.
I don't mean to say that price stability itself creates problems or bubbles, but there exists a subtle link between the two.12 A prolonged period of high growth coupled with low inflation gives rise to optimistic sentiment, which is at least partly responsible for fostering financial bubbles. In addition, low inflation tends to justify prolonged monetary easing, which in turn can become one of factors contributing to the formation of bubbles.13 We should not treat these experiences lightly.
We have to start by recognising this odd reality of bubbles being accompanied by price stability, yet then followed by instability of the financial system, subsequently bringing about low growth and often inflation that is lower than desired. From such a long-run perspective, we have to admit that central banks that have accommodated asset price bubbles failed to achieve economic stability, given that both financial and price stability are essential elements of economic stability. We also cannot separate the bubble period from its damaging aftermath, intertwined as they are through leverage and deleverage and through overly optimistic pricing followed by its correction. We certainly cannot say that problems can be solved by focusing solely on the latter period. We have to think deeply about how best to relate the price stability mandate to financial stability when the central bank conducts monetary policy.
What is interesting about the account above is that it takes a structural view on what unintended consequences that modern monetary policy might entail. Price stability may then be an imminently reasonable cyclical yardstick for monetary policy but the underlying effects on the economy might no be benign on a net basis. The obvious counterargument is then what monetary policy makers should do instead. However, I think the train of thought above deserves mention even without answering that question.
The second point that I think is worth mentioning from the speech is the following on the link between the natural rate of interest and demographics.
(my emphasis)
Japan is now experiencing rapid ageing, at a pace that is unprecedented in modern economic history. Rapid ageing or, more precisely, the rapid rise in the "dependency rate", is one of factors lowering potential growth and hence the natural rate of interest.18 It is noteworthy that there is a clear correlation between the potential growth rate and the long-term expected inflation rate in Japan (Figure 11). I can only say that we cannot fully understand Japanese macroeconomic performance without understanding its demography, and how it interacts with the economy and society.
I have argued a similar point on many occasions and while I am not completely in agreement with the Summers/Krugman notion of a secular stagnation, I think it is important to develop the idea further. In short, a rapidly ageing population may be one the key reasons that a central bank (and an economy) stuck in ZIRP may find it nearly impossible to escape. While this may represent nothing but an interesting theoretical issue for economic modelers it takes on a grave practical in the context of the large and growing debt burdens that modern societies find themselves with at exactly the wrong time in their economic life cycle. Larry Summers may have inadvertently stumbled across the crux of the issue in today's FT;
"We do not have a strong basis for supposing that reductions in interest rates from very low levels have a big impact on spending decisions. Any spending they do induce tends to represent a pulling forward rather than an augmentation of demand."
I think this is very good representation of our current malaise. Through the lens of someone looking at economies with rapidly ageing populations we can simply say that this problem arises because there isn't any consumption to pull forward! Fisher's interest theory was always valid, it is merely that in the context of a rapidly ageing population the consumption smoothing mechanism breaks for obvious and quite logical reasons. Quite simply, even in ZIRP you are not stealing a sufficient amount of "future" growth to kick-start the recovery because such future growth is not there.
So said Mae West, the late American actress and entertainer, whose upbeat line is often used to denote a positive and openminded approach to life. Yet, just because you try it once does not mean that you have to like it. For example, I recently travelled from London to New York only to stay for 18 hours. Spending 12 hours in airplane over the course of a full day is decidedly not something I intend to do again if I can help it.
I wonder whether Yellen would heed Mrs West's dictum in the context of trying to define what "a considerable time" really means or perhaps when it comes to putting a number on the elusive NAIRU? Unfortunately for Yellen she does not, unlike me, have to luxury of only trying once. She will be forced to try over and over again until she gets it right and it might be a bumpy ride.
The problem is simple yet vexing for the Fed (and quite possibly the BOE too). It is steadily becoming impossible for the Fed to maintain the illusion of forward guidance and this poses problems. Forward guidance always worked incredibly well in theory for an economy stuck at the zero bound with a gaping negative output gap. It even worked in practice, but with the US economy starting to show signs of returning to steady positive growth (albeit that such growth might be weak overall) time horizons are getting increasingly squeezed.
This was obviously highlighted with last week's FOMC where short rates rose sharply and Eurodollar futures sold off. As we saw in the market for risk asset, such bear flattening is not something investors like too much. All the commotion arguably came as the Fed revised up its interest rate projections for 2015 and 2016. This won't really surprise any investors who tend to keep a close eye on fixed income markets in the US. However the key problem is that this renders forward guidance impotent. In short, rate hikes are now being priced in on a substantial level within a, for market participants, relevant and important time horizon. In a normal world where interest rates are price along a continuous spectrum this is normal but in a world of forward guidance which denotes a binary world where the central bank pre-commits to a specific interest rate regime (ZIRP) it renders such policy very difficult to sustain.
One reason for last week's change in communication could be that Fed is genuinely turning more hawkish (in anticipation of a tighter labour market and wage pressures). After all, markets cannot expect interest rates to stay at zero forever. However, Yellen' comments at the beginning of this week suggest otherwise, and herein also lies the problem. The communication of forward guidance is now almost impossible for the Fed; as investors know all too well, it is impossible to put the proverbial toothpaste back in the tube.
Still, this seems exactly what Yellen attempted to do on Monday. Here is Macro Man [1]with a relevant observation in this regard.
(...) Yellen took pains to point out reasons why much of the current unemployment is cyclical rather than structural. Among the arguments employed were the low level of wage growth. While it is certainly true that wage growth is below long-term norms, it is somewhat disingenuous to suggest that it has been stagnant. Indeed, private sector wage growth (the only type she has any power whatsoever to impact) has accelerated smartly over the past eighteen months, and now rests above the average level that prevailed when the past two Fed tightening cycles commenced.
So, the doves are back in charge it seems, but investors are not stupid. Whatever the Fed decides to do forward guidance is now a dead policy. It is time to find a new recipe regardless of whether Yellen and the rest of the FOMC agree with Mae West's morale or not.
[1] - Readers should note that this is the original Macro Man wielding the pen here. To the extent that you can get excited over anything in the blogosphere, it is genuinely uplifting to have the good ol' MM back (with or without his knee caps!).]]>
Source: Citgroup, Matt King (March 2014)
Since 1988 there has been a relative close, and logical, correlation between higher corporate leverage and higher spreads, but not this time around. It is difficult to find a clearer picture of the effect of a structurally low interest rate regime (ZIRP) run simultaneously by global major central banks.
One of the most obvious consequences of persistently low interest rates in the past 2-3 years has been the increase in leverage for non-financial corporates (with access to the debt markets). A new bubble is brewing and if you look at the sectors of the economy that have responded to low interest rates (i.e. who have had room to lever up) the picture falls squarely on non-financial corporates.
Yet, when presenting this view to clients in the past 6-12 months I have received strong push back. Net debt is still low I am told and corporate cash balances have improved. All this is true, but I have already given a hint to my rebuttal. We need to look at non-financial corporates and indeed, we need to drill down to sector level.
First of all, let us quickly dispense with the notion that US corporates are sitting on large cash balances. This is true when judged from afar, but cash reserves are very concentrated.
The reason for this skew is mainly banks and the likes of General Electric, Berkshire Hathaway, Apple etc. This is simply to say then that the notion of US corporates being awash with cash does not hold up to scrutiny as a general market characteristic. This is supported by the expecteced relationship between higher net debt and a lower liquidity position (measured by the Quick Ratio).
So while the market based information is telling us that spreads and leverage are now disconnected, fundamentals remain in-line with theory. Companies with higher net debt also have poorer liquidity positions [1]. The final piece of evidence I would like to point to just how distorted overall net debt data is by the financial sector.
Including the financial sector will consequently give a picture of steadily declining leverage to new lows in the past 5 years. However, this is deeply misleading. If we strip out financials (which in any case is logical as their balance sheets look completely different from non-financial corporates') net debt per share has ascended new highs in the past 2-3 years. Mind you, these figures are both indexed and inflation adjusted so there is no nominal money illusion to blame for the results either.
There are now more corporate bonds outstanding in the US than there are mortgage backed securities. This is a significant data point. The heart of the next crisis and debt bubble will be non-financial corporate debt (particularly in the energy and materials sector). Investors should take note.
[1] - The relationship between net debt per share and the Quick Ratio is non-linear due to the fact that the Quick Ratio is bounded by zero at its lower bound (while net debt per share is unbounded).]]>
Apart for some important qualifiers (see below) I tend to agree with this. I certainly never bought the recent misplaced worries about current account deficits in Brazil, India and Indonesia as the potential source of a new Eurozone type crisis. Current account deficits are perfectly normal for these EM economies and indeed welcome in a world where everyone wants to export their way to growth. As I argue below, investors have been focusing on the wrong deficits.
The notion of a less correlated world is an interesting narrative in itself because it is starting to emerge as a serious alternative to the Zero Hedge view of the world. In fact, it is worth pondering whether the recent 12 months' impressive melt-up in developed market equity market isn't, in part, a contrarian response to the growing fraction of Armageddon Preppers that has infiltrated financial market commentary.
For investors the transition to a world dominated more by bottom-up and local themes would constitute a more benign investment environment relative to a world where the future of financial markets rest on the whims of Greek bureaucrats' dealings with the IMF. This is the good news, the bad news is that I don't think investors can completely disregard global macro risks. Specifically, I see two "local" macro risks with the potential to global; a capital outflows crisis in China and the growing CA deficit in Japan (and its consequences for the JPY and JGB).
In this post I deal with the latter.
Japanese current acount makes no economic sense
There are two reasons why the current account deficit in Japan should command investors' attention. In the first instance, it is important because it points to further and strong JPY depreciation. Secondly, because it is a necessary but not sufficient condition for the JGB market to blow up (yields to rise sharply in Japan).
Edward has already dealt with the challenges that Abenomics face over at AFOE. I agree with the main sentiment; especially this.
(…) it seems to me Japan's problem set is overdetermined in that we always seem to be facing at least one more problem than we have remedies at hand.
Turning to my own narrative, the first point above may seem less controversial. Every serious and non-serious macro trader has been short the JPY in the past 12-18 months. I would suggest that trade will continue to perform nicely, but a negative current account suggests that the JPY could now be on the cusp of weakening with a speed and to a level that will garner serious attention from the other G7 economies and market participants. This is to say that so far the short-JPY trade has been lucrative idiosyncratic trade driven by a local macroeconomic experiment in Japan. A negative current account could be what makes a weakening JPY a systemic risk for the global economy through its impact on Japan's economy. To put this in a language market participants can understand, so far the short JPY has been a risk-on trade with the USDJPY being very correlated to the US 10y yield and Nikkei 225. With a current account deficit my contention is the JPY would weaken sharply even in an environment where stocks sold off and US 10y notes rallied.
Remember that the rest of the world has so far accepted the experiment that is Abenomics not only because Japan has been running a current account deficit (thus making it more reasonable for Japan to weaken its currency), but also because the depreciation has so far been orderly. With a growing negative current account, the wheels are now set in motion for a decidedly disorderly depreciation of the JPY and one that could ultimately be life threatening for the Japanese economy.
In simple terms, Japan's current account deficit is "perfectly" in line with a rapidly ageing economy that is supposed to dissave. However, it is also the first example of its kind. We simply do not know how an economy with no discernible future investment yield and opportunities react to the need to import foreign capital to pay for consumption and investment through, as is currently the case, a big and growing budget deficit. My guess is that all known theories of life cycle economics are about to run out of line as it becomes clear that negative current account dynamics do not make sense for a rapidly ageing economy. Either the currency weakens up to the point at which the current account is closed (that is rapidly and violently!) or bond yields start to rise (in similar violent and rapid fashion). Neither scenario is going to be pretty.
The biggest push-back I continue to get here is that the BOJ will simply continue to buy all the JGBs and thus that bond yields will not be affected. This certainly looks like where we are going. A case in point has been the amazing statements from the Government's Pension Investment Fund (GPIF) signalling their intent to sell bonds and buy more equity.
This puts an incredible onus on the BOJ. Not only is the Japanese pension industry now dissaving (i.e. structural net sellers of bonds to fund retirement redemptions), but if they also start to liquidate their stock of JGBs to rotate into stocks who will pick up that flow. Remember here that Japan is currently running, by far, the biggest budget deficit in the world. There are only two constituents that can pick up this flow really; foreigners and the BOJ. This has customarily been the main reason for expecting ever more aggressive monetary easing and essentially that the BOJ would become the JGB market. This is certainly where we are going but a negative current account changes dynamics significantly
In essence, the notion of the BOJ buying up all JGBs does not necessarily apply in the case of a current account deficit. More specifically, no matter the speed of the printing press in Japan foreigners need to finance the current account per definition and if the deficit is structural it is difficult to imagine this would not include buying JGBs (thus, presumably demanding a higher yield for their effort). The BOJ could, in theory, buy every single JGB but this would then de-facto be done in order to shield the JGB market from foreign influence and higher yields.
The presence of a negative current account thus creates a veil between the BOJ and its objectives. It can still achieve its objectives, but it would require a drastic radicalisation of its bond buying programme and thus a likely very aggressive nominal target for JPY weakness. This would, in the first instance, call for accelerated JPY weakness but investors should not automatically assume that the BOJ can control this process.
This brings us to the second point stated above. A negative current account deficit is thus the first step towards a rout in the JGB market. While it is true that Japan has its own currency and will likely use it aggressively as an adjustment mechanism the key question is the speed with which such an adjustment will work. Investors should not take this lightly. If inverted yield curves in the Eurozone periphery proved to be a significant global source of tail risk, a similar development in Japan would be equivalent to a global financial nuclear disaster.
Many commentators have noted here that as soon as Japan turns back nuclear power the current account will stabilise, but this is far from certain. And even if this was the case, the speed with which such a change materialises in the current account balance could easily be enough to upset the cart.
The investment implications are clear in my view. Being short the JPY makes imminent sense and investors should add to position. The traditional risk-on/risk-off dynamics would suggest that a market sell-off should be correlated with JPY appreciation. My view is that the negative current account changes that dynamic. I would also suggest buying OTM put options on the short end of the JGB curve. Being short JGBs has so far been a widow maker, but a negative current account deficit changes the risk/reward ratio drastically for such a trade. Investors should take note.]]>
At least this is the conclusion from some fascinating number crunching from JPMorgan's Flow & Liquidity team in their report last week. I had a feeling that this was the case looking at the surge in Chinese FX reserve growth (capital inflows) in the past 6-12 months, but it is still interesting to see such clear evidence from the data.
Here is F&L on the outflow data;
(...) around $80bn of capital left these 22 EM economies [read: essentially EM ex China and the Middle East] cumulatively since last May. This $80bn outflow is likely understated by $20bn due to the 1.6% decline in the dollar between the end of May and end of February, as a weaker dollar pushes up the dollar value of non-USD denominated reserves. Adjusting for this leaves us with around $100bn of estimated capital outflow from these 22 EM countries between May and February.
This estimate of $100bn worth of EM outflows since the tapering scare began in May/June last year is not the controversial number. The main question is then where the money went and here it gets very interesting.
This capital outflow does not necessarily reflect capital leaving the EM universe as a whole. In fact it seems that China, perceived as safe haven, has attracted a similar amount over that period. Using similar calculations of FX reserve changes adjusted for current account flows, we arrive at a $125bn cumulative capital inflow into China between May and December, as the outflows of last May/June more than reversed in subsequent months. Of this $125bn figure, around $25bn reflects the 2% decline in the dollar between the end of May and end of December. This leaves us with around $100bn of estimated capital inflow into China between May and December.
What is particularly interesting about these numbers is that the breakdown reveals that only a small fraction of this, $20bn according to JPM, reflects net FDI. The rest represent so-called hot money flows in the form of portfolio flows and short term flows into demand deposits (to take advantage of sharply higher interest rates in China).
With the CNY just having seen its strongest bout of volatility in a long time last week it may seem rather inopportune to publish a note on the inexorable and inevitable rise of the CNY. Personally, I would be wary taking the consensus view at face value here. In fact, on many accounts the CNY looks overvalued here and this is exactly what the market is also telling us I think (at least in the short run). CNY volatility and weakness are also the two main markers I would be watching for signs of capital outflows and ultimately how China could become a big headache for the rest of the world.
All this however does not detract from the fact that JPM gets the completely unofficial award this week for the best sell side data crunching exercise. The tapering scare that emerged last summer has been linked to all kinds of bad outcomes for emerging markets as a whole. Clearly, this is not an accurate description and something which investors should not lose focus of.]]>


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Missing woman
Garland police said early Sunday that Laurel Sullivan has been found.
Sullivan, 43, is a special needs adult who was reported missing from her apartment in the 6400 block of Duck Creek Drive, just north of the Walmart at Interstate 30 and Broadway Boulevard.
The woman was located in Farmers Branch in good condition.
Garland police spokesman Officer Joe Harn said she has been returned to her family.


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|Home > Nutrition > Healthy Recipes > Curried Yogurt
Category: Spread/Dip/Salsa | Serves: 8
Nutrition Information:Calories: 17
Protein: 1 g
Carbs: 2 g
Fat: 0 g
Saturated Fat: 0 g
Sodium: 24 mg
Fiber: 0 g
Yellow curry and hot pepper lends a wonderful flavor to tangy yogurt! Try this spicy sauce with garbanzo beans, chicken, veggies or pita bread.
|Combine all ingredients in a small bowl and mix well.
|Serve over chicken, tofu, garbanzo beans, veggies, rice or with pita bread.
|Yield: 1 cup. Serving size: 2 tablespoons.
|Ratings & Reviews
|suprisingly tasty
Reviewed By: vpink_78
kind of hesitant at first...curried yogurt?! really. grilled some chicken breast and had the yogurt sauce on the side ...
|Jul 09, 2011
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|By Greg Schulz
Article Rating:
|November 28, 2012 08:00 AM EST
Seven Databases in Seven Weeks (A Guide to Modern Databases and the NoSQL Movement) is a book written Eric Redmond (@coderoshi) and Jim Wilson (@hexlib), part of The Pragmatic Programmers (@pragprog) series that takes a look at several non SQL based database systems.
Coverage includes PostgreSQL, Riak, Apache HBase, MongoDB, Apache CouchDB, Neo4J and Redis with plenty of code and architecture examples. Also covered include relational vs. key value, columnar and document based systems among others.
The details: Seven Databases in Seven Weeks
Paperback: 352 pages
Publisher: Pragmatic Bookshelf (May 18, 2012)
Language: English
Product Dimensions: 7.5 x 0.8 x 9 inches
Buzzwords (or keywords) include availability, consistency, performance and related themes. Others include MongoDB, Cassandra, Redis, Neo4J, JSON, CouchDB, Hadoop, HBase, Amazon Dynamo, Map Reduce, Riak (Basho) and Postgres along with data models including relational, key value, columnar, document and graph along with big data, little data, cloud and object storage.
While this book is not a how to tutorial or installation guide, it does give a deep dive into the different databases covered. The benefit is gaining an understanding of what the different databases are good for, strengths, weakness, where and when to use or choose them for various needs.
A look inside my copy of Seven Databases in Seven Days
Who should this book includes applications developers, programmers, Cloud, big data and IT/ICT architects, planners and designers along with database, server, virtualization and storage professionals. What I like about the book is that it is a great intro and overview along with sufficient depth to understand what these different solutions can and cannot do, when, where and why to use these tools for different situations in a quick read format and plenty of detail.
Would I recommend buying it: Yes, I bought a copy myself on Amazon.com, get your copy by clicking here.
Ok, nuff said (for now).
Cheers Gs
Greg Schulz - Author Cloud and Virtual Data Storage Networking (CRC Press, 2011), The Green and Virtual Data Center (CRC Press, 2009), and Resilient Storage Networks (Elsevier, 2004)
twitter @storageio
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Jul 11, 2011
Mondi's unbundled packaging unit makes JSE debutBack
Johannesburg|Africa|Mpact|Packaging|Paper|Africa|Mozambique|Namibia|South Africa|Zimbabwe|Packaging|Rigid Plastics|Bruce Strong
© Reuse this
Shares in Mpact started trading at R16 apiece when the market opened in Johannesburg, but traded at R13.99 by noon.
Mondi announced in April that it would separate its MPSA from the group through a demerger to give the South African unit more flexibility to develop its core growth areas. The demerger is effective from July 18.
Strong said Mpact had identified opportunities for its rigid plastics, paper-based packaging and packaging paper divisions, both in South Africa and Africa. The company would pursue a balanced mix of organic, greenfield and acquisitive growth, he added.
In 2005, Mpact posted R2.8-billion in revenue, which grew to R5.7-billion in 2010. "Becoming an independent listed business, marks a new beginning for Mpact. The company will continue to leverage its position locally and focus on growing revenue and profitability," Strong said.
Mpact has 22 manufacturing operations and 29 operating sites based in South Africa, Namibia, Mozambique and Zimbabwe, and 3 500 employees.
Edited by: Mariaan Webb© Reuse this Comment Guidelines (150 word limit)
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Amanda Peet at the Independent Spirit Awards 2011
2011 Independent Spirit Awards: Amanda Peet
by POPSUGAR Fashion 4 Reactions 5 Shares Print
Amanda Peet just strode the red carpet in a fresh white Nina Ricci dress from Spring '11. She added sexy black Swiss dot tights and platform heels and pulled her hair back in a high ponytail. Her makeup is minimal, with natural-looking rosy cheeks and glossy lips. Talk about flirty schoolgirl charm! Do you love Amanda's outfit?
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Read More 2011 Independent Spirit Awards Red Carpet Poll2011 Independent Spirit Awards2011 Award SeasonRed CarpetNina RicciCelebrityLove It Or Hate ItAmanda Peet
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really fresh and pretty!
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Select your Perth community newspaper below or enter your suburb to show news and views for your area.
Image and story by Bruce Hunt
DEIRDRE Carlin is pictured with the basics of celestial navigation as used by her father to plot a course around the world in Half Safe, a WWII amphibious jeep.
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But this is still hard, starting a new life after 18 years on Death Row, going from a prison cell so small he could take only two strides in one direction, to a book tour with so many stops he can't count them.
From leg shackles
to airplanes
"Yeah, you're happy to be out, but you get crushed by the anxiety, the fears and uncertainty.
"I basically had to learn to walk again," he said. "I had to learn to use silverware again, because in prison you eat with your hands. I hadn't been anywhere in 20 years. I had been in a box."
And now he is in Salem at Halloween, his favorite holiday and his favorite time of year. And yesterday he walked down the pedestrian mall in the mist and drizzle.
Over coffee, sitting at a small table, smiling and laughing, he was asked one last question.
So how are you doing?
"Getting better," he said. "That's what I usually say. ... I've been out about a year and a month and it's gradually getting better with time."
Tom Dalton can be reached at email@example.com.


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I ordered this game because I enjoyed the first trivial pursuit, however the questions were outdated... this is great game! Read morePublished 4 months ago by tracey
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This is a great game and a newer version than the old one that we used to have. The questions are more updated and relavant to today.Published 9 months ago by P. Kelly


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Topographic Elk
by John Stortz
Art Print
Collect your choice of gallery quality Giclée, or fine art prints custom trimmed by hand in a variety of sizes with a white border for framing.
- 112Promote
Your work is amazing. It's very inspiring, I'm obsessed with animal illustrations and I love how you color them.


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|By PR Newswire
Article Rating:
|July 14, 2005 05:46 PM EDT
In the news release, Department of Homeland Security Begins US-Visit Biometric Exit Pilot at Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International Airport, issued earlier today by U.S. Department of Homeland Security over PR Newswire, we are advised by the Department of Homeland Security that the eighth paragraph, first sentence, should read "... and nearly 700 criminals or immigration violators have been denied admission" rather than "... and nearly criminals or immigration violators" as originally issued inadvertently.
PRNewswire -- July 14U.S. Department of Homeland Security
Web site: http://www.dhs.gov/us-visit
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Dean Swift x Geniu$ - Unheard Of
Production: DJ D.A., Geniu$, Izze The Producer, Jaytastic
Lead Single: Prayer
Avg Rating: 5.0 ( 2 total votes )
After introducing himself to our readers last summer, with his debut album The Low Pro, Boston emcee Dean Swift has connected with Atlanta emcee/producer and fellow newcomer Geniu$ for the release of their brand new collaborative project, Unheard Of. Hosted by DJBooth.net, the theme of the free release is reaching the brink of success while struggling as an unknown commodity in the recording industry.
Previously-featured stand out selections like "Prayer" and "Would You Mind" help to capture this sentiment. Production is handled mostly by Geniu$ and Izze the Producer, whose production credits include Young Jeezy and Ace Hood, while guest appearances are limited to Lucky, Renzo, Singa and Stephon Michaels.
Fans can also check out Dean Swift's previous albums: Dean Swift - The Low Pro
Stream Unheard Of
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Would You Mind if we dropped a brand new world premiere? You wouldn't? I thought so. In that case, allow me to introduce Boston representer Dean Swift's latest effort, which grabs a laid back beat from producer...
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Boston emcee Dean Swift taps into his more serious side on brand new single Prayer, where he touches on the various struggles that he's faced during his lifetime. Swift doesn't hold back either, singling out his...
First DJ Booth Appearance:
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Additional Information
Campaign Media Awards 2012 - Best Total Communications Programme: Ikea
To meet the challenge of making Ikea synonymous with the bedroom, and so drive double-digit growth in bedroom furniture sales, Vizeum's campaign was designed to send the nation "happy to bed".
- Title: Ikea Happy To Bed
- Media agency: Vizeum
- Media director: n/s
- Media planner: Aoife Nagle
- Creative agency: Mother
- Account planner: Niki Garner
- Client: Ikea
- Brand/product: Ikea bedroom furniture
- Marketing director: Peter Wright
- Brand manager: Kemi Anthony
On Channel 4, the agency created a TV campaign that secured the ten-second spot closest to 10.30pm every night for 20 weeks, with a "live" Happy To Bed clock reminiscent of the old BBC TV clocks. On Absolute Radio, Ikea sponsored Mark Crossley's bedtime show, with a ten-second audio Happy To Bed clock broadcast at 10.30pm every night alongside listeners' bedtime song requests. Online, the agency developed a digital manifestation of the clock with bedtime content; a Happy To Bed mobile app took the campaign to the bedside, while paid-for search and SEO drove people to Ikea's Happy to Bed experience.
This article was first published on campaignlive.co.uk
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Additional Information
Latest jobs Jobs web feed
- Senior Planner - Internal Marketing Agency National Trust £36,000 - £44,000* per annum, Swindon, Wiltshire
- Campaign Planner - Internal Marketing Agency National Trust £27,916 - £32,500* per annum, Swindon, Wiltshire
- Assistant Marketing Strategy Manager Thorntons £Competitive + Benefits, Alfreton, Derbyshire
- Senior Marketing Director - 9-12 month FTC Comedy Central £competitive, Camden, London (Greater)
- Senior Brand Manager Ball & Hoolahan £Excellent Salary Package , South East England / London (Greater)
- Innovation Senior Brand Manager Ball & Hoolahan £48,000 + Car/Car Allowance, South East England


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you may recall, the January 2014 issue of the ADEA State Update featured an article on the State Authorization
Reciprocity Agreement (SARA). SARA is an agreement among member states,
districts and territories that establishes comparable national standards for
interstate offering of postsecondary distance education courses and... Click Here To Read More
On June 23, Gov. Pat Quinn (D-IL) approved
H.B. 4593. The new law authorizes the Illinois Department of Financial and Professional Regulation (
IDFPR) to issue volunteer licenses to healthcare... Click Here To Read More
ADEA's Advocacy and Governmental Relations
portfolio (AGR) is offering its ADEA Advocacy Workshop series to ADEA members.
AGR's staff of advocacy professionals (who have worked in state legislatures
and the U.S. Congress) will travel to your institution to present information
on how to become an effective advocate for academic dentistry and... Click Here To Read More
ADEA recently developed a State Advocacy
Toolkit, enabling ADEA members to more effectively advocate for dental
education and dental and craniofacial research.
The importance of being an advocate for
academic dentistry and dental and craniofacial research... Click Here To Read More
Introduced in 2013, the ADEA United States Interactive Legislative
Tracking Map provides access to the most up-to-date information on state
legislation of interest to academic dentistry. Users can view the current
status of bills, including upcoming hearing dates, as well as current bill... Click Here To Read More
For additional information on issues
affecting academic dentistry and dental and craniofacial research in Congress,
federal agencies and state legislatures,
please follow ADEA Advocacy and Governmental Relations on Twitter at ADEAAGR; there is much to
"tweet" about.... Click Here To Read More
Dental school faculty members or administrators who want to interface
with members of Congress on issues of importance to oral health are encouraged
to apply for the ADEA/Sunstar Americas, Inc./Harry W. Bruce, Jr. Legislative Fellowship.
The fellow selected spends three months in Washington, D.C., working on issues
and... Click Here To Read More
The ADEA/Sunstar
Americas, Inc./Jack Bresch Student Legislative Internship is a
six-week, stipend-supported internship in the Advocacy and Governmental Relations
portfolio of the ADEA Policy Center (ADEA AGR) in Washington, D.C. This student
legislative internship provides a unique learning experience for predoctoral,... Click Here To Read More


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"Marrdro" wrote:
Favre would help take away tackles in two ways. First off the packers threw a hell of a lot more with Favre than they would with anyone else, not giving JA the opportunity. And two, I'd say (sarcastically) that 80% of the time the packers ran last year it was misdirection in a spread offense. Hard for a DE to track down a pump fake, hand off, run to the outside.Quote:
"jessejames09" wrote:
I agree with your point, but how does Favre's play account for the lack of tackles?Quote:
"Marrdro" wrote:
Rodgers or Brohm will take twice as long to get rid of the ball as Favre. Not to mention they wont spectacularly make a guy miss and make an amazing yet unconventional throw. How many games did Favre carry the packers on his back last year? All of them.Quote:
Couple that I agree with.
JA had 3 total tackles, .5 sacks against the PUKERS last year.Quote:
Clifty will be able to handle him."
He will eat up the other Tackles in the div though but against the PUKERS I suspect he might be kept quiet a bit.
By the way, standby for the naysayers to come out week one if that happens.
Like it or not, we need to get better at the DT position.Quote:
"Maybe on the Packers Allen would be all that but we're talkin' about the Vikings. They don't have the tackle rotation or the bookend. Pat Williams comes out on passing downs.
Kevin and Pat wore down last year towards the end of the season.
My guess, that is the reason we saw such an emphasis on DT's in FA and took one in the draft when no one thought we needed one.
Again, I believe he will eat up the Lions and Bears T's but he will not have a free ride against the PUKERS T's regardless of who is behind center.


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Armstrong: Leaving Livestrong the most 'humbling moment'
Lance Armstrong has said that severing all ties with his Livestrong Foundation was his most humbling moment.
– Lance Armstrong
That was the most humbling moment. To get that call - two parts. One: step as chairman, but stay on the board - stay involved. [But] that wasn't enough for the people, for our supporters. Then a couple of weeks later the next call came - 'we need you to step aside'. It was the best thing for the organisation, but it hurt like hell. That was the lowest.


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Hi Ric,
I'm assuming you want to block sites by using the site's IP address i.e. www.bbc.co.uk --> 220.127.116.11
You need to create a computer set called say Blocked Sites By IP and then add entry for each website's IP.
The create a Deny rule at the top which goes something like this:
Deny HTTP, HTTPS from Internal, LocalHost, etc TO the Computer Set you created ealier i.e. Blocked Site by IP.
This will then block all access (on using protocols HTTP, HTTPS) to the IPs specified in the Computer set you created.
Another way to do its to create a host file on the isa server and then in the host file enter the sites' name i.e. www.bbc.co.uk followed by few spaced and then the ip address 127.0.0.1 so it will never go the website. Also the isa server queries the host file first before using the DNS.