text: Psychology of Political Thought TS2S 405 Fort Lewis College Conspiracy Theory Conspiracy: 1 a : to join in a secret agreement to do an unlawful or wrongful act or an act which becomes unlawful as a result of the secret agreement b : SCHEME A conspiracy theory is a description of how one or more groups of people manipulate different aspects of the world. 2 a theory that group(s) of people manipulate the social/physical world outside of the awareness of the general population. Theory: A proposed explanation of how the world works. A Brief Typology of Conspiracy Theories Anti Government: JFK, Moon landing, CIA and Drugs, Bushes and S&L, Clinton, Waco, fluoridation, microchips Anti Corporate/capitalism: oil companies, alternative fuels, money in politics, war, Christian conspiracies, OKC, voting machines International: New world order, UN, Bilderberg group Anti-Religious: Anti-Mormons, Catholics, Jews, Masons, Moonies, etc. Satanic and secular humanism conspiracies: eye on dollar, etc. Anti communist: civil rights movement, John Birch Society, McCarthyism Racial: genocide, white policy on drugs, Klan, Church's fried chicken, Snapple, Al Sharpton's office bombing, OJ, Tuskeegee Media conspiracies: suppression of information by right or left Events: 9-11, TWA 800, Korean Air 007, Ron Brown's commerce plane crash, JFK Aliens and UFOs, ghosts/paranormal, Satan, Bermuda triangle Individuals: The Bushes, Ken Lay, Bill Gates, the Rosenbergs http://www.art.man.ac.uk/english/staff/pk/research/Encyclopedia/front.html Good Paper Topic Characteristics Is related to political thought You can find resources both pro and con on the theory You can find at least 7 sources per side How do we come to know what we think we know? Epistemology: The study of what we think we know and how we come to know it. It's study implies finding truth is tricky business. Neither do the ignorant love wisdom or desire to become wise; for this is the grievous thing about ignorance, that those who are neither good nor beautiful nor sensible think they are good enough, and do not desire that which they do not think they are lacking. Plato, Symposium 203E-204A Methods of ―Knowing‖ 1. Authority. We listen to the experts, family, friends, Internet, media, etc.. But how do they know? Problems: people may not be true experts, authorities often disagree, etc. This is knowledge based on FAITH 2. Tradition. That's the way it's always worked/been, so it must be true. Authority of the past. May be prejudiced or simply reiterated falsehoods Methods of ―Knowing‖ 3. Conventional Wisdom (media). ―All I know is what I read in the papers‖ Will Rogers. – and what other people are saying. But, advertising campaigns try to sway this. Debeers example. The media is not an unbiased presenter of info. It primarily entertains, focuses on negative, scandal, etc. Camera doesn't lie, but it doesn't tell the whole truth either. Crude logic But common sense can often be wrong. Gambler's fallacy 4. Common Sense – it seems plausible or just makes sense. Methods of ―Knowing‖ 5. Formal Logic. Knowledge from rational argument. But while adhering to logical rules is desirable, Logic only proceeds from uncertain assumptions. There is no single affirmative answer to most logical problems But can you really trust your perceptions? Overgeneralization Selective observation Premature closure (selective exposure) Optical illusions 6. Personal Experience. If I see it I believe it. Methods of ―Knowing‖ 7. Science. The dominant methodology today. A process for finding ―truth,‖ a system of explicit rules and procedures to guide the accumulation and summary of observations among a community of learners. Science also requires faith in the method and the scientists themselves. Since religion doesn't use this methodology, it's by definition not scientific; rather religion turns to other authorities Investment. People believe in the things in which they've invested resources. They invest a lot of time, money, other resources in groups, causes, etc. They resist change in the face of conflicting information. Science as a way of knowing Science: Greek for "to know" Science is a set of procedures based on logical rules to arrive at the ―best‖ (most probable) understanding of things we observe. It helps us examine explanations (theories) through systematic comparison of logical predictions (hypotheses) against observable evidence. Assumptions: Conclusions must obey rules of formal logic. Object of study must be empirical, observable. Conclusions based on probabilistic reasoning. What is the probability that an answer is correct? Science is MUCH more rigorous and systematic that casual human thought. The Scientific Process Stages of the scientific research process. The Hypothetic-Deductive Method Hypothesis, theory, research design, define observations (measurement), collect, summarize data (analysis), generalize from data Theory Theories: Proposed explanations of how the world works and how concepts are linked. Purpose is to explain reality Should explain the most with the least (fit + parsimony). A theory is only as good as it is useful in explaining observations Compare stick figure to real person Theories are not necessarily ―true‖; they're simplifications Theories are not necessarily universal; they're context sensitive Without theory, social science would be a disconnected and meaningless pile of observations, data, and statistics. Theories help us know what to look for, what an observation might mean, and helps us make generalizations about how the world works. Hypotheses Hypothesis: Specific predictions deduced from a theory. A observable manifestation of a theory. A sentence proposing a relationship between two specific variables. Ex: Republicans approve more of George Bush's job. They are statements to be proved or disproved. Null hypothesis: there is no relationship between the variables. Variables must be clearly defined and observable (measurable) Measurement Measurement: Factors of interest must be defined, observed, and counted: To do that, translate concepts into observable indicators of a concept (variables) Must define the key concepts (abstract categories) Concept: class of related things Ex: Animal: can't touch one, only its instances Instances: bears, dogs, cats, whales, horses. Members of class actually differ in many important ways. Ex: Food, claws, habits, habitats, vocalization, etc. Concept is the common characteristic among them We impose the commonality--it exists in our minds as our way of making sense of the world. Concepts are 1) tentative, 2) based on social agreement, 3) useful only if they capture a useful slice of reality Concepts are the building blocks of understanding, language and science Variables Variables (Indicators)-- Variables are observable manifestations of a concept Must be observable Must capture the concept (valid) Must produce same results each time (reliable) Research Design A method for systematically gathering observations Survey of citizens Classical experiment Participant Observation Key: How you gather observations affects the logical conclusions you can make from them. Ex: random sampling. Then, go out and gather the data! Data Analysis Summarize your observations Can be done descriptively (qualitative) or through statistical data analysis (quantitative) Hypothesis test: compare your observations to what the hypothesis predicted. Is the hypothesis correct given our observations? Critique and Replication Share your results with other scientists, get critiques <=KEY! Replicate study to see if you made a mistake or if theory is context dependent <=KEY! In short, consider why your answer may NOT be correct and have others help expose problems in your logic, observations, measurements, statistics, and conclusions. Summary The scientific method is like reading from you grandma's cookbook. First, do step 1, then step 2, etc. Easy right? NO!: ―Science, measured against reality, is primitive and childlike – and yet it is the most precious thing we have.‖ (Albert Einstein) It's precious, but not perfect! The Pitfalls of Science Science is very tricky in practice; it's an art form. There are many problems and errors that arise in the process. Ambiguity of language and concepts. Example: Equality (Overhead). Hard to live with Clinton: No agreement on "is" or "sex" Not sex, just an "inappropriate relationship" Defining language is imprecise, yet politically powerful Problems Ambiguity of Language and Concepts Many of the things we care about are abstract concepts: Happiness, freedom, terrorism, justice, equity (try to define terrorism) People want to make definitions in self-serving way. Ex: Bombing Hiroshima and Nagasaki were terrorist by almost any current definition, but Americans choose not to think of it that way. Often people and politicians want to avoid specifics in favor of vague language and abstract symbols. More Problems Data can be full of errors or manipulated. Measurement problems. How do you get accurate figures on poverty (what is it in the first place?), violent crime, economic wellbeing? (GDP?) More Problems Overgeneralization (generalize from too few cases, sampling error) No single best way to conduct scientific research, especially in social sciences. More Problems Inaccurate observations and psychological biases Optical Illusions (We'll look at lots of these) Asch Experiments: Finds that people will bow to social pressure to choose an answer they know to be wrong. More Problems Cognitive and psychological ―mistakes:‖ Selective Perception: see what you want to see We can never divorce ourselves from our own viewpoint. Maybe none can see the world ―objectively‖ Selective Observation: pay attention to cases that fit your explanation, ignore those that don't Differential Perception. Different people see different things. (Hey, we'll focus on these, too) More Problems There are no social laws, only useful generalizations. Recursive behavior. Our studies often change attitudes and behavior. So what are we measuring/observing? Illogical reasoning, bad methodology Doby Gillis (on reserve) Even Deeper Problems Inability to prove something true Falsification (Popper): Cannot prove things are true because there are always other explanations, or anomalies around the corner (David Hume also). We can only show that something is NOT TRUE (but not perfectly). Experiment Can never prove anything--haven't discovered truth as much as rejected obvious falsehoods. Even Deeper Problems Confusing Correlation and Causation Correlation = covariation (co-occurrence of change on two variables). This tells us nothing about cause (why the two variables changed) Causation: Change in A => change in B Or, Change in A <= change in B Or, Change in A change in B Or, Change in A unrelated to change in B Or, Change in A and Change in B both caused by a change in C Observing a correlation does not tell us anything about causation. Demonstrating Cause 1. 2. 3. 4. 4 requirements to logically infer a causal relationship Covariation--statistical association: if A changes, B must also change. This is necessary, but not sufficient. Not enough alone to show cause. Why? 5 Types of causal relationships w/i a correlation Time order--IV must come before DV big problem in surveys. Abuse must come before violent behavior Nonspurious--no third factor can explain the covariation Ice cream and violent crime Theory--logical explanation of the relationship Even Deeper Problems Can Humans really do science objectively? Thomas Kuhn: Structure of Scientific Revolutions Paradigm--widely accepted explanations, or theories protected by those who benefit from its dominance Normal science--routine verification of a theory Scientists are prisoners of dominant paradigm Anomalies build up--cases that don't fit the theory Revolutionary science--abrupt development of new theory to help explain anomalies, resistance by status quo Implication: Science is as much a social and political process as a rational one. It's a group struggle. Even Deeper Problems Philosophical debate: Can we know anything at all if we are not unbiased observers of the world? Premodernism: life is at it appears – don't question own point of view. What you see is reality Modernism: Philosophy of the Enlightenment. Truth is knowable through rationality and science, but hard to discover due to human biases. Hence, group learning is key in a scientific community. Most scientists are here! Postmodernism: no ―objective‖ truth, only varying ways of viewing the world through different cultural lenses. Modernists wrongly impose their (European) version of truth. So, what of science? It's not perfect, but its favored because at least it's a process of self-questing and self-doubt. It's skeptical. It includes mechanisms for self-correction (peer review) Procedures help insure that logic is not abused. Once again, Einstein: ―Science, measured against reality, is primitive and childlike – and yet it is the most precious thing we have.‖ Skepticism What is skepticism? ―One who questions the validity of a particular claim by calling for evidence to prove or disprove it.‖ How does this relate to science? ―Science is inherently skeptical, even of its own findings.‖ The good scientist always says their knowledge is subject to revision pending further evidence. ―I've never written anything that was finished.‖ (Hugh Nibley) The flim-flam artist claims they know things for sure and they've ―proven it.‖ What is credulity? ―Readiness or willingness to believe especially on slight or uncertain evidence.‖ Science vs. Pseudoscience What is pseudoscience? (Shermer) Claims that appear scientific and are couched in scientific language, but lack supporting evidence and logical plausibility. How is pseudoscience different from science? Science is a process of continually improving and refining our knowledge of the world, based on new observations and interpretations. Bad explanations can be falsified. Pseudoscientists, however, do not try to correct error or change their point of view, they perpetuate their errors and views. Thinking Gone Awry Logical fallacies (Shermer Ch. 3) and PowerPoint Slides. See also: See the PowerPoint on my web page. Expected Utility Theories A Normative (how it should be) theory of decision making. Von Neumann and Morgenstern (1947) Expected value = cost/benefit x probability Variations of EUT theories add randomness and subjective probabilities to make them more ―real‖ Some Key Assumption of EUT Ordering of Alternatives: Decision maker must be able to rank order all alternatives. Cancellation: if two alternatives have the same probability or value, that factor should be ignored in the decision. Transitivity: If you prefer A to B and B to C, you must also logically prefer A to C. Continuity: Should prefer gambles if they have higher expected values than sure bets. Invariance: Decision should not be affected by the way alternatives are presented (framed) Full information and consideration of all alternatives A Rational Decision Define the problem Specify all alternatives Get full information Analyze each alternative according to your weighted criteria Choose the option with the greatest expected utility Apply to buying a car How Rational Are We? An Experiment Paradoxes in Rationality Allais Paradox violates Cancellation: if two outcomes have the same probability or value, that factor should be ignored in the decision. How did you answer on 28a on the survey? Because the additional feature is worth the same amount in each alternative, it should not lead to different preferences. It should be ignored. Ellsberg's Paradox Violating Intransitivity The committee problem (Figure 8.5) Also known as the Condorcet paradox Order of comparison determines winner. This is why we should NOT hold elections in successive pairwise comparisons. Sometimes, there is not single intransitive preference. Preference Reversals When people are asked to choose between two bets, they prefer the ones with the highest probability of winning, but when they are asked to set a price for how valuable the bets is, they prefer the ones with the highest potential payoffs. Therefore, peoples' preferences reverse based upon whether they look at the probability of winning or the potential payoff. =>Two preferences for the same options. This shouldn't happen if principles of rationality are followed! Psychology of Judgment and Decision Making Scott Plous examines how people make judgments and decisions in the real world. Behavioral Decision Theory BDT is a revision of ―rationality‖ as defined in classical economics Claims to better describe how people reason, think, and decide. Finds people systematically violate all of the assumptions of rationality (and by extension, classical economics) Herbert Simon: People are rational only to the extent that they don't do things that harm their utility, but other than that, the model fails. But we must also ask ourselves throughout: ―To what degree are these effects ―hothouse flowers?‖ Brain as a ―Belief Engine‖ The Brain is a belief machine, always trying to make sense of the world, to connect the dots Learning Unit: We are quick to see correlations while forgetting non-correlating pairs Critical Thinking Unit: We can be critical using tools we've learned, but only when we don't like the argument. (Ex: Alcohol studies, Doby Gillis) We turn this one on and off to suit our needs Yearning Unit: We seek answers, certainty, want to reduce anxiety Brain as a ―Belief Engine‖ Input Unit: The brain actively constructs meaning from sensory stimuli using preexisting thought patterns. Emotional Response Unit: Events with strong emotional stimuli are more memorable and believable to us, but could still be false Memory Unit: our memories are constructed and fallible, not just recalled Feedback Unit: the processing of incoming information reinforces or weakens our beliefs (weakens them only rarely due to defense mechanisms) Selective Perception What we expect to see or see what we want to see what we strongly influences perceptions. Categorization: We can only assimilate information into preexisting categories. Ex: in, sa In fact, we can't NOT use these categories. Ex: Written Language It is no stretch to say this is one of the most powerful psychological effects. It affects almost all others. In and Sa Read this. Aoccdrnig to rscheearch at Cmabrigde Uinervtisy, it deosn't mttaer in waht oredr the ltteers in a wrod are, the olny iprmoetnt tihng is taht the frist and lsat ltteer be at the rghit pclae. The rset can be a toatl mses and you can sitll raed it wouthit a porbelm. Tihs is bcuseae the huamn mnid deos not raed ervey lteter by istlef, but the wrod as a wlohe. Are you really reading the words as they are, or seeing what you expect to see? Selective Perception Reader survey #33: Did you get 11 Fs? Or did your brain presume it knew what was on the page and ignore some it? Dartmouth v. Princeton – People systematically think the refs are against them and they're getting all the bad calls Hostile Media Effect: Both Arabs and Israelis perceive media bias against their groups. Same for liberals and conservatives in US. What examples can you think of in the real world? Ideology x Walmart Sexual harassment w/ Clinton vs. Thomas 9/11: Blessing from God or act of evil? Katrina: Act of nature or act of God? Patriot Act and/or torture: Necessary evil or government gone too far? Selective Exposure Selective perception is enhanced by selective exposure (attention) to information Most people seek out information that supports their preconceived way of viewing the world. Why would a conservative want the dissonance of watching Democracy Now? Why would liberals watch Fox News or 700 Club? PS: Watching to mock doesn't count because you're not open-mindedly considering the information. Result: the illusion that you are informed and that the evidence fits your point of view. Another Example As reported on the front page of last Thursday's New York Times, the secretary of defense has formed his own "four- to five-man intelligence team" to sift through raw data coming out of Iraq in search of evidence linking Saddam Hussein to alQaida terrorists. Rumsfeld has publicly continued to push this link as a prime—or at least the most easily sellable—rationale for going to war with Iraq, even after the CIA and the Pentagon's own Defense Intelligence Agency have dismissed the connection as tenuous at best. But Rumsfeld contends that the spy bureaucracies may have missed something. As his top team member, Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul D. Wolfowitz, put it to the Times, there is "a phenomenon in intelligence work that people who are pursuing a certain hypothesis will see certain facts that others won't, and not see other facts that others will." Since Wolfowitz is one of Washington's most forceful advocates of a second Gulf War, we can safely predict that he will find the facts he needs to make his case. Source: Slate.com 10/29/02 Cognitive Dissonance People want to reduce, avoid, or ignore cognitive inconsistencies, so they dismiss information that conflicts with their chosen view in order to preserve it. Examples: Jewish Tailor, Festinger and Carlsmith (1959) Application: changes in behavior can lead you to change your attitude and vice versa. Ex: Can oppose sex outside of marriage, until you do it. Then, you either reject the principle to justify the action or vice versa. Ex: Pre-commitment: get people to give token contributions to political campaigns so they'll be sure to not change their minds later. Part of the job of a liberal arts education is to make you more comfortable with dissonance. Memory We are NOT unbiased video recorders. Most memory degrades and existing memories change or are adapted (sometimes due to cognitive dissonance) Doonesbury cartoon (overhead) Ex: Eyewitnesses notoriously unreliable. How did you do on Q 34 of the reader survey? Even how a question is asked about the past changes memory. Smashed vs. hit. People ―made up‖ seeing broken glass. Memory People remember a general scenario or picture, not details. Stop and remember a pleasurable moment or scene in your life. Were you in it? Did you really look at yourself during the event, or are you reconstructing the memory? Inferences fill in missing mental detail. Memory must be forced into preexisting categories. Memory is easily created in children, and even adults (abuse). Memory is re-constructed rather than merely recalled What examples can you think of? (or did you forget?) Hindsight Bias Hindsight bias: ―I knew it all along‖ We overestimate what we knew in the past because we integrate subsequent information. See Fischhoff and Beyth (1975) Have you ever watched Jeopardy with someone, and after the answer is given that person says "I knew that one" or "That was an easy one"? This may be why people overestimate whether they voted for winning president or not, or whether their candidate will win Ex: Pre gulf war: people thought it another Vietnam. Afterward, confidently declared they knew it would be an easy win. Ex: Iraq: people thought it a relatively easy win, underestimated the quagmire. Hindsight Bias In reality, we probably didn't know it before hand, and a decision that went bad doesn't necessarily = a bad decision. It may still have been the best one, just without the benefit of hindsight. Implication: We can be overly critical of people whose decisions went wrong and overly praiseworthy of people who made risky decisions that turned out well. Even explaining this bias to people and telling them not to do it doesn't eliminate it (Fischhoff 1977). What examples can you think of? More Examples medical context. A Dr.´s second opinion does not differ completely from another Dr.´s opinion if he/she is aware of the first opinion. This seems to be of serious consequence if one considers that a second opinion is only required when serious illnesses have been diagnosed. legal context, hindsight bias was found to occur when a jury makes a final decision in court. In the course of a trial, the judge is empowered to order the jury to ignore certain testimonials, by disallowing them. It is impossible to ignore such information. workplace context. A supervisor may not be able to make an undistorted judgment on his employees´ decision-making if he/she got information about some results of their performance. This is a special problem in the case of poor outcomes because a poor outcome could happen even if they acted correctly on the information they were given at the time. Source: http://mailhost.sfb504.uni-mannheim.de/glossary/hindimp2.htm Context Dependence Contrast Effects and Optical Illusions Optical Illusions.ppt Straight lines ―bend,‖ and shapes appear larger or smaller depending on the context in which they occur. Nothing is big, small, hot, cold, smart, dumb, good, bad, etc. without something to compare it to. What is the reference point? Application: Real estate What other examples can you think of? Context Dependence Primacy Effect: Asch (1946) found that characteristics appearing early in a list disproportionately affected evaluation. Did you rate emotional as ―high‖ on Q. 3? Application: First impressions are key. Other examples? Context Dependence Recency Effect: Instances where information that comes last is most influential – when it's best remembered and rises to the top of the mind. Primacy effect is stronger when pro and con info is presented at the same time. Recency effect is stronger when pro and con info is separated in time. More recent info dominates. Context Dependence Halo Effect: Evaluations on multiple unrelated characteristics are highly correlated. Ex: ―Beauty Halo‖ an attractive person is also rated highly in intelligence, personality, friendliness, etc. Did you fall prey in Q. 4? Other examples: First paper read when I grade, etc. What other examples can you think of? Plasticity of Opinions Public Opinion polling is widely used by politicians, media, researchers. How do we know what the public thinks? How well do we know it? Do people have stable opinions? Can we trust public expressions of opinion as important in a democracy? Plasticity of Opinions A sampling of public opinion polling problems. Question order effects: presidential approval drops if you put it later in the survey rather than first. Response order effects: Recency effect. Choose last response in a list. Pseudo opinions: Metallic Metals Act Israel an Arab country Is candidate x a socialist? ―all the other candidates seem quite social as well.‖ Mistakes and misunderstandings Women's Suffrage http://ebaumsworld.com/videos/suffrage.html Plasticity of Opinions Inconsistent attitudes: Hypothetical attitudes don't predict specific applications. People might say they are tolerant, but then launch into a list of things or groups they would ban from public schools or libraries. Abstract opinions do not equal behavior Darley and Batson (1973): Good Samaritan Question Wording Slight changes in question wording alter responses. What's your favorite example from Plous? Mine: Allow vs. forbid antidemocratic speeches People use response alternatives as a frame of reference for reasoning about the Q. Framing Logically equivalent options that are stated differently produce different expressed preferences. Item 25, 26 on survey Lives saved v. lives lost in Asian Flu Scare People are risk seeking in the domain of losses People are risk averse in the domain of gains Schelling example: Tax deductions for families with children or tax increases for the childless. The policy is the same, but its description produces very different political considerations. Kahneman and Tversky studies The effect even exists among trained experts, like doctors, who deal with probability. Framing Examples A ―relaxed‖ application of framing is when a speaker raises one subset of considerations to attention. How's the economy doing at 1% GDP growth? Worse than historical performance (Clinton frame) Better than world performance (Bush 41 frame) Tax increases versus reversing tax cuts Application: Expectations management. Bill Clinton as the ―comeback kid.‖ Application: Debates have little effect: people just root for the home team (selective perception)! But post-debate spin can have an influence. Ford Gaffe 1976. Note: Framing effects have been shown to be suppressed by partisan labels and sources that lack credibility. Words Invoke Frames Often individual words invoke different frames: Bureaucrat (neg) vs public servant (pos) Terrorist vs Freedom Fighter, Martyr for the people, or defense force. What examples can you think of? Remember, biasing language was even used as a logical fallacy. Most of politics is an ongoing war of frames. Estate Tax versus Death Tax http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/persuaders/view / http://video.pbs.org:8080/ramgen/wgbh/pages/frontline/2303/real /ch5_hi.rm Examples Colorado Blue Book What is a budget cut/tax increase? Private/Personal Social Security Accounts Was Iraq a new war started by us, or a conclusion of an old war started in 1991? Framing Examples TV news is mostly episodic – focus on interesting cases, not general patterns. News coverage of crime, terrorism, poverty tend to be episodic. lack of focus on historical, economic, social antecedents to problems Tends to focus instead on personal failures. =>conservative policy Thematic – stories that give in depth interpretive analysis. Unemployment covered thematically, but most issues are not. Iyengar –. Affects attributions of political responsibility for events. Tend not to hold politicians accountable if episodic. But Thematic coverage tends to place blame on government or society as a whole. Source: Shanto Iyengar: Is Anyone Responsible? How Television Frames Political Issues. Priming While Framing effects are caused by differential content of communication, priming effects are caused by different quantities of information Considerations at the ―top of the head‖ affect recall and information processing. Sand, waves, sea, moon, palm, fish, blue Asking survey questions about personal finances induces pocketbook-voting responses. Application: Agenda setting. Watching news stories about particular issues (terrorism) makes that issue rise in saliency (listed as most important). –Iyengar and Kinder (1986) Political ads try to affect what info you remember and consider in the voting booth. Psychological Accounting People reason differently and make different choices (even for equivalent outcomes) based on how they think of the loss or gain. Ratio Difference Principle: People want to save $5 off a 20 purchase, but don't worry much about saving $5 if they're buying a car. Hence, car/home salespeople can make hundreds or thousands off you because the loss seems small in context. Examples? Other Descriptive Models of Decision Making Satisficing Prospect Theory Certainty Effects Pseudocertainty Regret Theory Multiattribute choice Noncompensatory strategies Most Important Dimension Satisficing Satisficing (Herbert Simon): People choose the option that satisfies their most important needs, even if it is not ideal. People don't optimize. Optimization impossible because info is often missing, not all alternatives are explored, outcomes are uncertain, time and cognitive abilities are limited, etc. Not a full ―model,‖ rather a description of behavior in organizations. Prospect Theory Developed by Kahneman and Tversky Finds losses are accounted more heavily than gains. Critical in politics because people respond to negative impacts and externalities more than positive ones. Much easier to organize people and money around a political loss than an equivalent gain. Prospect Theory Key Implications People are risk averse in the domain of gains, risk seeking in the domain of losses. The key is the ―reference point,‖ against which the comparison is made Leads to framing effects Leads to an ―endowment effect‖ where people value what they have more than the value they would place on it if they did not own it. The ―garage sale problem.‖ Implication: killing existing programs very difficult. Predicts a ―certainty effect‖: People prefer a reduction in risk near zero to a greater one elsewhere. People would rather eliminate risk than reduce it. People will pay more to remove the only bullet is a gun in a game of Russian Roulette to removing 1 of 4, even though the decreased risk is the same in each case. Application: 3 strikes and you're out, zero tolerance, etc. Prospect Theory Application: candidates will take political risks, run more negative political ads, risk a backlash if they are about to lose. People will fight more for programs they may lose, than those they would like to implement. Voters throw the incumbents out when things look bad. Activity You are a campaign consultant. How can you "exploit" some of the logical fallacies or psychological biases discussed so far to further your cause to invade Iran? Your group should define 5 specific fallacies or biases and discuss how your campaign ads, news conferences, debate moments, etc. could try to play to these biases. Choose to represent either pro or anti war positions. Try not to make them absurd… Activity Choose a speech from a prominent politician, a party platform, and media story, or other communication of interest and critique it for lack of evidence, logical fallacies, or psychological biases. Heuristics and Biases Heuristics: decision ―rules of thumb‖ Biases: systematic tendencies toward a particular outcome in people's thought processes. Pioneered by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky in multiple experiments Provides a description of how people make judgments and decisions under uncertainty. Why do we care about probability calculations? Aren't they just academic? When do we use probability? Most political questions involve probability judgments What are your chances of being a victim of crime? How likely are you to contract an STD? How often does discrimination occur? How likely is x to happen? How risky is smoking? How long before another terrorist attack happens? Are Americans pro-war? What are people on welfare, politicians, bureaucrats like? What are the chances we will invade Iran? Representativeness Heuristic People often judge probabilities ―by the degree to which A is representative of B, that by the degree to which A resembles B.‖ (T&K 1974) Item #1 from reader survey. Likelihood of Linda being a bank teller and feminist is lower than just being a bank teller. Shows people commit the ―conjunction fallacy‖ where they judge a subset of outcomes to be greater than than the full set because the subset sounds ―plausible‖ and representative of someone they might meet because it is more detailed and descriptive. Neglect of Base Rates A base rate is the relative frequency (probability) of occurrence seen over time. Representativeness heuristics often arises because people ignore this information. Ex: #2 & #5 from my survey Misjudging Sample Size People make all sorts of ―mistakes‖ in calculating probabilities. Misunderstanding inferences we can make from sample size is one of them. Ex: problem 6 my survey. Regression to the Mean Unusually high or low scores tend to be followed by scores closer to the mean. Sports Illustrated ―Jinx.‖ Athletes perform worse after being highlighted in Sports Illustrated. But their performance was highlighted because it was atypically good (or bad). Over time, their performance will settle back down toward their mean. Postwar slumps in presidential approval ratings. Mistakes to Avoid Don't be misled by detailed scenarios. The more detailed they are, the less likely they are to occur. Pay attention to base rates, particularly when an event is very rare or very common Remember chance is not self-correcting Don't misinterpret regression to the mean Availability Heuristic People ―assess the frequency of a class or probability of an event by the ease with which instances or occurrences can be brought to mind.‖ Some events will be more available for consideration because they are recent, easier to think about, vivid, emotional, plausible Ex: #7, 8 on reader survey, # 1, 3, 4 on mine Availability Imaginability Carroll (1978): Found that those who were asked to imagine Jimmy Carter winning were more likely to predict a Carter win, likewise for Ford. So, if an outcome seems plausible and is easily imagined, it seems more probable. ―I heard the military is using a new plane that can go 4x the speed of sound.‖ I have no idea if it's true, but it sounds plausible, so I'll believe it. ―The Bush Administration is going to reinstate the Draft.‖ ―Israeli Soldier‖ Availability Vividness The more vivid or emotional an event is, the more likely we think it is, because it is more available in memory. People found an unrepresentative verbal presentation of student evaluations of a course more useful in deciding whether to take a course than statistical information on all students evaluations! Implications: politicians will be driven by vivid, but less probable events than systematic analyses show and can influence jury outcomes and advertising effectiveness. Welfare queen, lazy or inept bureaucrat, 600 dollar hammer. Implication: media pictures may are more impactful than talking head discussions by academics. (CNN effect) Implication: Our experiments show (so far) negative ads are more memorable. So do people overestimate the occurrence of negative advertising? (According to our research, yes). Probability and Risk People don't use Bayes' Theorem to estimate probability. So, there are many statistical mistakes made. P(B|A) = P(A|B) ´ P(B) / P(A) Do you seriously use this? Also, positive outcomes are judged more likely than negative ones (overly optimistic) Rosenhan and Messick (1966): People predicted smiling faces more, in all experimental conditions Most people think they'll be successful, but not die of cancer or in a car accident. How did you answer Q 5 a-d on the reader survey? Common Probability Mistakes People overestimate the probability of conjunctive events (A and B both occur) Example: Space shuttle O ring failure. 6 O rings w/ 97.7% chance of success each. .9776=.87 chance of success = 13% chance of failure. People underestimate the probability of disjunctive events (A or B occurs) When there are many possible low probabilities events, people overestimate the probability at least one will occur. Conservatism: People are slow to revise their estimates in response to new info. Risk People often perceive risks very differently than statisticians. People fear nuclear power most, statisticians tell us its less risky than riding a bicycle. What is a risk? Skiing? Swimming? Genetically modified foods? Alcohol? Sex? Dread risks: those beyond people's control that have great consequences, like nuclear power. Voluntary risks: Those people don't fear (due to underestimation of risk?) or risk knowingly Perceived risks vary by culture. Risk and Selective Perception After SAC false Russian Missile Attack and 3 Mile Island, people didn't change their assessments of risk, or their preferences. They interpreted the info to confirm their prior expectations. London/Madrid bombings? Anchoring and Adjustment People are biased by irrelevant information in estimating probabilities and proportions. Random # Actual higher/lower? Exact # Af in UN 64 lower 45 10 higher 25 Random numbers impact our numerical evaluations Application: Salespeople throw out very high numbers and appear willing to negotiate. Once estimates are anchored, people do not adjust sufficiently Finding are robust and apply in real estate and other areas. Anchoring and Adjustment Example: estimate the thickness of a piece of paper folded on itself 100 times. Most people say no more than a few yards or meters. Correct answer = 800 trillion times the distance between the earth and the sun. You were swayed by the small thickness of paper. Estimate the product of 8x7x6x5x4x3x2x1? Mean Estimate: 2250 (Correct number is 40320) Estimate 1x2x3x4x5x6x7x8? Mean Estimate = 512 Anchoring and Adjustment Reader Survey item #13 Only 23 people needed to have a 50% probability of 2 people having the same birthday on some day. But 254 needed to have a 50% probability of the same birthday on a particular day Implication: Unspecified "coincidences" happen a lot by random chance! (Many conspiracy theories rely on unspecified coincidences which the theorist falsely deems unlikely, and therefore in need of an ―alternative‖ explanation.) Perceptions of Likelihood What are the chances? Given the preceding chapters, we don't have a clue. We often assume low probability events cannot occur by chance, so we must have a different, often supernatural or conspiratorial explanation. Common Political Heuristics Party Identification Ideology (Metallic Metals Act?) Endorsements Viability/support (polls) Candidate Appearance Name Recognition (I prefer you try factcheck.org or other good source instead) Which one is Julius Erving's Shooting sequence? Patterns in Randomness People see patterns in purely random events. Gilovich et al (1985) demonstrated that streak shooting in basketball was an illusion (the probability of hitting a basket did not increase the probability of hitting the next one. In fact, it decreased!). See item 38 on survey The Myth of the Hot Hand Data in table 2.1 contradict that notion that hitting one shot (x), increases the probability of the hitting the next. This is also true of free throws (eliminating other variables as explanations) Players were unable to predict their shot in advance Gilovich believes people misperceive streaks where there are none because they have a faulty impression of what randomness looks like. Clustering Illusion: OXXXOXXXOXXOOOXOOXXOO is random, not streak shooting. Buttressed by representativeness heuristic and small sample sizes. Prediction: Those closest to basketball are most likely to make the mistake! Ex: People even see genetic similarities between parents and adopted children! Implication: we may think we see patterns in random police stops, hiring and firing, sporting event outcomes, stock trends, music played backwards, etc. People also claim to see things in clouds, stars, tree leaves, paint splotches, etc. Are they really there, or are we constructing them? (selective perception) http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/solarsystem/mars_ face_010525-1.html http://www.enterprisemission.com/ Misperception of Random Data Our "belief engines" predispose us to see order, patterns, and meaning in the world. Randomness, chaos and meaninglessness are unacceptable to most people. But our perceptions are often figments of our imagination Shermer's examples: faces and canals on photos of mars, Satanic messages in music, finding religious figures in shadows, on toast, on paint splotches and wood grains, hot streaks in sports and gambling. Finding patterns is no doubt comforting to us. Finding patterns is also the substance of science. The difference is that science utilizes procedures that minimize the probability of clearly faulty conclusions. Correlation, Causation, Control Illusory Correlation: We often perceive correlations where there are none. See #14 on reader survey. No correlation is present. Bacon and Eggs? Invisible Correlations Jennings et al (1982) We often miss correlations < .70 Ice cream and violent crime example Intercourse example Correlation does not equal causation! Causation does not require correlation! Attribution Theory Who should be blamed or praised? Fundamental Attribution Error People over-attribute others' behavior to disposition (traits) rather than situational factors. But the error is also self-serving. If I fail, it's the context; if you fail, it's because you're personally lacking If I succeed, it's due to my characteristics, if you succeed, it's due to the situation Example: Racial Bias. Group X members fail because they're lazy or incapable (rather than they have less opportunities, suffer discrimination, and lack silver spoons in their mouths) Application: Egocentric bias: people claim more responsibility for joint outcomes, probably due to the higher salience and availability of info about their contribution. Attribution Theory Why does the error occur? People tend to ignore consensus information (base rates), which is less salient to them than more biased story lines. The more salient something is, the more likely it will appear to be causal Taylor and Fiske (1978) found that 3 people listening to a conversation rated the person in their visual field as most influential on the conversation, because attention was focused on them. Tend to attribute less variability to others than to oneself. Implication: If you're not responsible for your own failures, who is? This leads to blame displacement. The government? Those people? Fixing Attribution Errors Pay attention to base rates: If most people behave similarly in a given situation, don't attribute it to disposition. Ask how you would have behaved in the same situation Walk a mile in someone else's shoes. Social Influences Of course, judgments and decisions don't occur in a vacuum. We're influenced by other social actors, norms, and pressures as well. We worry about how others will perceive us and react Research shows that judgments and choices can be affected (negatively and positively) by our expectations of how others will view us. Assumption: Most people are more comfortable conforming and want to be liked and accepted. A Few Social Effects Social facilitation: our performance is enhanced by onlookers for things we've mastered; performance declines for unmastered tasks. Social loafing: People don't work as hard in groups as alone. Diffusion of Responsibility: Less likely to act because we figure it's some else's problem. Kitty Genovese Example Social Comparison: People compare their opinions and abilities to those like them to check performance and acceptability. Appear to be more likely to act on behalf of and take advice from someone like them, and even feel less pain from electrical shocks! A Few Social Effects Asch experiments on conformity: Many people espouse opinions that are obviously false if the majority of a group or a vocal minority assert an alternative truth. Readers survey #32 Lone dissenters significantly decrease the effect, but don't get rid of it entirely Application: mob rule, conventional wisdom on bureaucracy. A Few Social Effects Groupthink (Irving Janus 1982): A cohesive and insulated loyal group creates pressures to conform to the perceived dominant opinion => self censorship of alternative opinions. Groupthink leads to self-delusion and overconfidence. Application: any NSC meeting, group of presidential insiders, CEOs ―Fix‖ it by forcing opposing views in all discussions (playing devil's advocate), leaders should let others speak before sharing own opinions, create redundant groups, invite outsiders and experts, share thinking with outsiders A group effort at selective perception Groupthink Symptoms: Having an illusion of invulnerability Rationalizing poor decisions Believing in the group's morality Sharing stereotypes which guide the decision Exercising direct pressure on others Not expressing your true feelings Maintaining an illusion of unanimity Using mindguards to protect the group from negative information Negative outcomes: Examining few alternatives Not being critical of each other's ideas Not examining early alternatives Not seeking expert opinion Being highly selective in gathering information Not having contingency plans Group Judgments and Decisions The question: Do Heuristics and Biases occur in groups too, or just individuals? General answer: They generally work in groups too. In fact, groups often amplify the effects of these biases through a process of group polarization. Group Attribution Error People make self-serving attributions for their group and critical ones against other groups. Dispositional attributions for group success Situational attributions for group failures Out-group Homogeneity Bias Groups see members of their own groups as more varied and diverse than members of other groups. Differences are not merely the result of group familiarity. This helps to perpetuate stereotypes; out-group members are not evaluated as individuals. Ex: Applies to almost any ethnic or religious group Heuristics One study found that the Representativeness Heuristic was even more powerful in groups than in individuals (Filkins 1990). Conjunction Fallacy occurs more in groups Group polarization: the process of a group amplifying individual-level psych. effects. But, the research is relatively limited. Group Polarization Group polarization: the process of a group amplifying individual-level psychological effects. Choice Shift: Groups are more willing to take risks than individuals (―risky shift‖) If groups are first predisposed toward caution, they'll be come even more cautious. Initial leanings are key in juries. Prejudiced individuals' biases are amplified in like-minded groups (like political parties!) Positive Group Effects Problem solving Groups solve problems better than individuals, particularly when a leader encourages everyone to share their ideas (Maier and Solem, 1952). Quantitative tasks: groups slightly more accurate than individuals Brain teasers and logic: Ditto General knowledge: Ditto Simple tasks: group size increases probability of having a member skilled in that area. Complex tasks: groups pooled resources and corrected errors. The main exceptions were for the group genius who outperformed the groups as a whole Judgments Why did groups do better on this? Common Traps Overconfidence Self-fulfilling Prophecies Behavioral Traps Overconfidence People much more confident they are right than evidence shows. Prior to Challenger, NASA estimated the probability of catastrophic failure at 1/100,000 launches (yet O ring failure probability was 13%!) We're too confident in our memory and ability to calculate probabilities and risks Oskamp (1965) found that as we learn more, we become more confident, but not more correct! Beware of the one who claims to know too much. Big problem among doctors. Overconfidence is greatest when accuracy is near chance levels (50%) Between 80-100%, people become under confident 10-40% overconfidence is a common occurrence. Can be overcome through constant feedback and self-correction, but not through monetary incentives to perform well. Application: Capital punishment after a conviction ―beyond a reasonable doubt.‖ Fischhoff and Lichtenstein find that: Activity & Examples Take the self-test of overconfidence on p. 224 of Plous. Eyewitness testimony: people tend to be confident they chose the right person, but were not very accurate. Medical Judgments: Doctors are just as confident on misdiagnoses as on correct ones. Confidence does not equal correctness. "One should not take high confidence as a guarantee of anything." (Loftus 1979) Fixing Overconfidence Stop to consider reasons why your judgment might be wrong. Make a list of pros and cons. See Calvin and Hobbs, p. 229! Self-Perpetuating Beliefs See item #39 on Reader survey, # 13 on mine. Confirmation Bias: People want to turn over cards (or see patterns) that will confirm their theory. (Remember Popper? What would he say?) People also weigh confirming evidence more heavily than disconfirming evidence. Implication: self-perpetuating beliefs. You can always find some circumstantial evidence in support of what you already believe. Confirmation Bias Disconfirming info is framed negatively, harder to understand. Ex: it rained after we did not wash our car. People even ask questions in a way to confirm ideas and do not allow for disconfirming evidence to be solicited. Ex: "What would you do to liven up a party?" Was asked to determine if a person was an extrovert. Indicators of introversion are ignored. Ex: What skills does candidate X bring to the job? Incapability may be ignored or underemphasized. Hidden or Absent Data Hidden or missing data often makes it almost impossible to examine relationships objectively. Application: The relationship between the quality of the decisions of college admissions committees cannot be evaluated w/o info about the performance of those NOT admitted. But because they were not selected, that info doesn't exist. Application: To evaluate the success of the gun control laws, we need to compare the gun-related crime rates of the US with the laws, and the crime rates of the US without the laws. You can't do both. Hidden or Absent Data Application: We see Vietnam as a disaster. But it may have been better than the alternative. But since the alternative didn't happen, we cannot know. Application: Does the death penalty inhibit murder? We would need to compare murders committed and not committed under the death penalty and those committed and not committed w/o the death penalty. How do you count a crime not committed? Application: How well does the CIA do their job? We have information about threats to US security not thwarted (9/11). But it's impossible to know all of the things that didn't happen because of the CIA. So it's hard to evaluate their accomplishments. Evaluation of Ambiguous Data Ease/accuracy tradeoff: people must balance costs of being wrong with the time it would take to get a better decision. What does a smile mean? Is it a sinister plot being conjured, or a genuine gesture of friendship? Seinfeld: Did he say "Jerry's Here!" or "Jerry's Here?" What do you make of G. W. Bush's comment on Saddam that "After all, this is they guy who tried to kill my daddy." (paraphrased) Was Rodney King resisting or acting defensively? Did the army intentionally kill people in the crash in afghanistan? "I'll see it when I believe it." -Thane Pittman The world gives us random, incomplete, unrepresentative, ambiguous, inconsistent, unpalatable, or secondhand information, which is by nature difficult to process "correctly." We are bound to make many mistakes. What are the ambiguities in the infamous "kicking incident"? Systemic Biases: Our media outlets, parents, friends, etc. give us part of the information only. Especially problematic given the atomism of the media? http://www.pipa.org/OnlineReports/Pres_Election_04/Re port10_21_04.pdf Evaluation of Ambiguous Data Even unambiguous info is evaluated differently by different people. We put greater scrutiny on reliable info we don't want to believe, and less scrutiny on unreliable info that we do want to believe. Remember the Alcohol studies example? Bush v. Kerry supporters on WMD, Al Queda Implication: exposure to ambiguous information will make both sides more confident of their position! What examples can you think of? Examples Does the economy do better with tax cuts? Is the media biased? Examples of Self-fulfilling Prophecies Pygmalion Effect: False conceptions that ultimately become true because they cause behavioral change. Rosenthal and Jacobson (1968) found that kids tagged as gifted or slow rose to the level of their expectations. Application: teacher expectations of students and student expectations of themselves are critical in education. Application: Racial stereotypes can become self-fulfilling (Word, Zanna and Cooper 1974). Application: If you think the police are out to get you, and you become argumentative with them, they will become more hostile towards you, fulfilling your prophecy that they are harassing you. Ever seen My Fair Lady or Pretty Woman? ―Fixing‖ Self-fulfilling Prophecies Difficult to eliminate; telling people to disconfirm doesn't help. So, Making confirming questions socially unacceptable Frame questions in a way that encourages disconfirming information Behavioral Traps Courses of action that are initially desirable, but later become undesirable and difficult to escape from. General Tendency: People tend to escalate support for costly behaviors and only escape after undue delay, maybe even a crisis. Time Delay Traps Ignorance Traps Investment Traps Deterioration Traps Collective Traps Time Delay Traps Momentary gratification clashes with longterm consequences. Relatively small pleasures (or absence of pain) produces behavior that is devastating and potentially lethal in the long run Examples: Lack of exercise, eating bad foods, smoking, unprotected sex, buy now pay later, etc. Ignorance Traps Behaviors or choices whose consequences are not know before-hand turn bad, but you cannot change course easily. Examples: pesticides that have increased pests, the unsatisfying job path you've taken, war in Vietnam and Iraq?, etc. Investment Traps Previous investments of time, $, other resources leads us to choices we would not otherwise have made. Sunk cost effect: throwing good money after bad. Induced by risk seeking behavior in domain of losses Ex: Item #6 on reader survey Application: scrapping defense projects, dams, business investments is very hard to do. Application: my car. Deterioration Traps The cost and benefits of a behavior change over time. Ex: Heroin addiction: addicts use it to avoid withdrawal rather than get a high, insecticides. Collective Traps People do in groups what they would not do individually. Their pursuit of individual self-interest harms the common interest (and thereby the individual!) Prisoner's Dilemma Application: Arms races Application: the environment. Everyone has the incentive to ―free ride.‖ Tragedy of the Commons The mattress on the road problem. Final Notes on Traps Traps are not permanent, just hard to remove yourself from A crisis may be needed to change. Not all traps are bad (Alcoholics Anonymous, not buying chips and cookies, scheduling exercise with your friends, etc. Final Comments on BDT Psychological processes are not necessarily irrational; maximizing utility is not the only goal In a world of scarce time and resources, it's natural for us to use them (for self-preservation?) But psychological processes inhibit objectivity. We must constantly question to what degree we see the world as it is, or construct it in our minds. Most de-biasing techniques require the explicit consideration of alternative perspectives. Are you doing this? Most people don't. Psychological biases are ―context dependent,‖ but then again, so is almost everything in the world of humans. http://www.prisonplanet.com/alex_jones_tells_his_story.ht ml http://www.sacredcow.com/media/links/alex/alex_2003/boh emian_bg.ram http://www.jonronson.com/rulers.html http://www.sacredcow.com/media/source/alex/alex_uktv1_b g.rm http://www.sacredcow.com/media/links/alex/alex_uktv2_bg. ram http://www.sacredcow.com/media/links/alex/alex_phantom1 _bg.ram Crap Happens http://www.ebaumsworld.com/birdball.html The Problems with Second Hand Information If our own biases make our observations untrustworthy, 2nd hand information expands the opportunity for error. Game of telephone. People forget or filter much of the original information Sharpening. The speaker sharpens or enhances what they perceive to be the "gist" of the message Leveling. The speaker throws our less essential information to make the story simpler and to the point. Ex: Quayle's misstatements are sharpened and ambiguous information leveled. 2nd hand stories generally sharpen personal attributions and downplay situational factors Personal attributions are easier to make than discussing situational factors. Second-generation evaluators make more extreme evaluations than the first generation. Polarization grows! Distortions of Information Entertainment We don't just seek relevant info, we like to be entertained. We can increase entertainment value by Telling a clear story (sharpened and leveled) We don't like to listen to speakers who are "boring" – who are nuanced and include qualifications, contrary information, etc. (talking heads on PBS!) Increase the immediacy Information thought to be close to us or someone we know seems more real. "I know someone who…" But, be very careful of second hand information! Exaggeration makes the story more clear and entertaining (even liberals charge Michael Moore with this). We often take liberties with the truth to make the point clearer, or motivate people to action Information Distortions in the Media Application: News Organizations. Which do they care about most: Informing the public or entertaining them? News organizations have every incentive to level ambiguous info and highlight good human interest and scandal stories. News organizations focus more on individual rather than systemic attributions TV plays up amazing events, but leaves out most context. Even on TV, the camera does not lie, but neither does it tell the whole truth (info outside the small capture of the lens is ignored.) Ex: Daryl Bem was cut from CBS Good Morning because it was not "interesting." Nobody likes dealing with the ambiguities or minutia of the world. A quick, "certain," entertaining story is more satisfying. Other Information Distortions Plausibility: Some distortions are perpetuated in society because they seem plausible, and therefore, believable Ex: 600 dollar hammers, $91 screws at DOD Ex: Lazy, corrupt government bureaucrats The major problems in schools Grace Commission Follies


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Have you been to this site? Inkygirl.com Daily Diversions for Writers. Some of her comics are genius. Here is another favorite.
Welcome to Literary Rambles! While you're rambling around and exploring the site enter for a chance to win:
Pre-Release COMPULSION Giveaway YA Book of Your Choice through August 31stFERAL through September 6th
Posted by Casey Something on Monday, June 15, 2009
7 comments:
Oh noooooooo.....ReplyDelete
I am in the (utterly painful) homestretch of my novel, and I may never finish now!
I am way to easily distracted! :)
Beth, Beth, Beth...ReplyDelete
I could devote a very large post detailing the ways in which I procrastinate.
Just STAR the post in your Reader and STEP AWAY until you're done with that homestretch.
: )
There is a ton of great info at Inkygirl's. As for procrastination, oh let me count the ways...ReplyDelete
*flies off to play Wordscraper on Facebook*
Funny! Thanks for the link!ReplyDelete
Ha, hilarious!ReplyDelete
These are great! I'll have to visit her site :)ReplyDelete
I love the one that's up today!ReplyDelete
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|Donate · Site Map · Contact Us
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Penzion Masek
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Travel Blogs from Cheb
Techniques to locate the ideal moving company
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Day 42: Rothenburg!
... near Munich. So they continued on while we made our way here! Some sort of delay after steinach station so we had to wait a little while for our train but Rothenburg was worth the wait. We checked into our room and headed to he main square. We got to the square and some sort of high school band(s) from Illinois was playing in the square. So we listened before ...
Drink the waters
... town and lots of restaurant line the bank .
The weather was bitter and David and I bought jackets , instead of wearing our jacket liners . We looked so bad in them , but look more respectable now . The weather has been cold and most days have ridden with out liners in
Back to the restaurants , they look after you , energy chair had a blanket for your knees , if you still look cold the staff will bring another for your shoulders .
We have every ...
... hall tower. In the states, there would be multiple warnings about the difficulty of the climb. Views from the top were awesome.
Then we took Gunnar's suggestion and walked around the outside of the city walls. Just beautiful.
Hit it the Medieval Crime museum where we saw grisly instruments of torture ...
Romantic Rothenburg - Pitty about the company
... of paper we have. Mum's over it because I always win ;) a few train changes later, we were in the German forted city, Rothenburg. It's an old fashioned town and it's known as a city of German romanticism. It's beautiful here. The name "Rothenburg ob der Tauber" in German means "Red fortress above the Tauber". The houses in the town all have red roofs, it has a fortress all the way around ...


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Enjoying some much-needed time off, Audrina Patridge was spotted out in Hermosa Beach yesterday afternoon (June 26).
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View all Dispensers (Hand-Soap)
Soap Dispenser - Facility Management Product Release
Spartan Chemical Co. Inc.
website | Company information
Soap dispenser has a 1,000 mL removable reservoir with screw on/off cap and site window to display product level. Made of ABS plastic, with a replaceable pump and tank and a removable key lock. To use with the company�s line of bulk liquid hand soaps.
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posted: 5/6/2011
Search Soap Dispenser on FacilityZone.com


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A 14th-century coaching inn, The Olde Bell mixes respectfully restored original features with modern comforts; its tiled floors, stripped wooden tables and bare-beamed ceilings are ramshackle by design rather than neglect. Expect French–influenced cooking in the taupe-panelled dining room, but with strong hints of unreformed British minimalism – hence grey mullet with violet artichokes, tagliatelle with St George's mushrooms or a gooey treacle tart with clotted cream. Home-grown vegetables and herbs crop up regularly in dishes such as whole lemon sole with spring carrots, peas and leeks or marinated octopus with butter beans and radish. In warmer months, grilling aromas waft from an alfresco kitchen on the terrace, perhaps offering blackened squid with orzo or slow-roast gammon and coleslaw; in chillier times, huddle round the bar's ancient fireplaces with a pint of local ale before retiring to one of the snug bedrooms.
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Villarreal, Real Sociedad, PSV Eindhoven and Dinamo Zagreb all enjoyed wins in the Europa League qualifying play-offs.
Diego Costa's brace helped Chelsea warm up for the start of the Premier League with a 2-0 win against Real Sociedad.
Jon Driscoll and Terry Gibson look at what we can expect from all 20 La Liga teams this season.
Guillem Balague picks his top 15 under-the-radar signings set for a big La Liga this season...
Newcastle ended their pre-season on a high note as Moussa Sissoko's late strike secured a 1-0 win over Real Sociedad.
Tottenham will take on Cypriot side AEL Limassol in the Europa League play-off round, while Hull face Lokeren.
Eintracht Frankfurt have secured the services of forward Haris Seferovic following negotiations with Real Sociedad.
Team news for the Europa League qualifying tie between Aberdeen and Real Sociedad at Pittodrie on Thursday evening.
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The best gossip and speculation from the papers.
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Sixteen-year-old Eon hopes to become an apprentice to one of the twelve energy dragons of good fortune and learn to be its main interpreter, but to do so will require much, including keeping secret that she is a girl.
In Eon's world, powerful Dragon Magic is something that only the best dare learn, hoping to become Dragoneyes. Years into his studies, Eon is about to try for an apprenticeship. But he harbors a dangerous secret: Eon is actually Eona, a girl, who if discovered, risks dishonor and death. Things only get more complex when she becomes part of the imperial court, where drama, intrigue, and exposure reign.
- Juvenile Fiction
- Animals / Mythical, Action + Adventure / General, Science Fiction + Fantasy + Magic
- Teen
- Unabridged
- English
- December 26, 2008
- December 26, 2008
- Alison Goodman
- Nancy Wu (Narrator)


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Elenin Sure Looks Fine To Me {latest from SOHO}
- Savwafair2012
- uploaded: Aug 30, 2011
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With Comet Elenin in continuous view of STEREO's (Behind) Heliospheric Imager 1, we can follow its progress across space as it moves from left to right in the video clip (Aug. 15-22, 2011). The comet appears as a fuzzy blob, though occasionally a smudge its comet tail can be made out. At its closest point to us, the comet will be about 35 million kilometers (about 22 million miles) from Earth on Oct. 16. By late August, it will be visible to us here on Earth, but it is still likely going to be hard to see with the naked eye.
The SOHO spacecraft should be able to observe this comet for six days starting Sept. 23. Comets are basically old dust and ice balls that occasionally visit our inner solar system. The bright object that appears at the beginning of the clip is Jupiter and near the end of the clip Mercury appears.
2 comments
Muppet99 September 20, 2011 9:55:23 PM CEST
Animation of Comet Elenin from Google Sky showing an anomaly in Infra-Red. There's a button to toggle between infra-red and visible-light.http://www.imagedoll.com/show.php/51265_elenin-anim.swf.htmlhttp://i.hebimage.com/0911/4e78bc1e07c0e.swf[only download, drag into firefox window to view]http://archive.ayna.com/flash/1014-8993474356.html[only download, drag into firefox window to view]http://www.zshare.net/flash/94515160d64af921/[only download, drag into firefox window to view]http://plunder.com/29da9945b8
Kuergun August 31, 2011 11:47:36 AM CEST
This is out of date as Elenin has fragmented !!


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411's TNA IMPACT Wrestling Report 8.09.12
Posted by
Larry Csonka
on 08.09.2012
James Storm took on Bully Ray in the main event, Kurt Angle battled AJ Styles, Roode and Aries signed their Hardcore Justice contract, Aces and Eights were in the house and more. Check out 411's complete TNA IMPACT Report for all the details!
Championship Roll Call
: Austin Aries
: Zema Ion
: Daniels and Kazarian
: Brooke Tessmacher
: Eric Young and ODB
: Devon
411's IMPACT WRESTLING REPORT 8.09.12 (Episode 422)
Reminder, I do not rate matches that are under three minutes long…
-Opening video package.
-We are LIVE in Orlando!
-Sting has invited Aces & Eights to come to IMPACT and deliver their latest message in person.
-Bully Ray makes his way to the ring. HE'S ON THE #twittahmachine! Ray has Val bring him a mic and then chases her from the ring. Do you know who he is? He has his FIRE BREATHING #twittahmachine! He says that he learned from Joseph Park, he learned that if there is enough evidence, someone is guilty. He will prove that James Storm is behind Aces and Eights. He will beat Storm tonight and then win at Bound For Glory, and earn his points for the BFG Series. He says that Storm is behind Aces and Eights, he has all the facts.
James Storm makes his way out to the ring now. Storm tells him to shut the hell up, because Ray is boring the people. Ray has no facts, and he is sick and tired at people accusing him and not taking him for his word. He will tell him like he told everyone else. He has nothing to do with the attacks. He is worried about winning the BFG Series so he can win back his title. And now, now Ray has pissed off Storm. He will tell him what he will do, if two guys have an issue, you draw a line, and if the guy crosses, you kick the crap out of each other. He draws a line, and dares Ray to cross it. Ray dares him to start counting, and he does. Ray backs off and bails to the apron. Storm says the line is there, and if no one believes him, they can come out.
We hear a mysterious message from Aces and Eights. They say they have an invitation from Sting to come there tonight. The mystery man with the Black Scorpion voice says they will arrive on their time. Ray accuses Storm of being in league with them and we head to a commercial.
-We get a recap of the opening segment.
-Pope says that the BFG Series has not gone his way, but at Hardcore Justice, he has a chance at 20 points to get back into the game. If he gets to the final four, the title will belong to him.
-Mr. Anderson joins the commentary team.
Bound for Glory Series Match: Rob Van Dam vs. Magnus
Lock up, off the ropes and RVD eats a shoulder block from Magnus. Magnus then clotheslines RVD to the floor. Magnus to the floor, lays the boots to RVD and then slams him to the apron. Back in the ring and Magnus covers for 2. Magnus catches a cross body try and turns it into a suplex, and covers for 2. Rights by RVD, to the corner and a kick by RVD. Springboard dropkick by RVD connects. Rights by RVD, knee by Magnus and catches a kick, but the scissors hold by RVD gets a pinning combo for 2. Side kick by RVD, charges, but then eats a clothesline by Magnus. He covers for 2. RVD fights back with a kick, up top and frog splash connects. That is all.
: RVD @ 4:00 via pin
-Bobby Roode discusses his contract signing tonight with Austin Aries. Roode says that there is language in the contract that he and his lawyers are not happy with. He may just stick the contract up Aries' ass. Let the games begin.
-We see clips from Claire Lynch's baby shower from last week.
TNA Tag Team Title Match: Kazarian and Daniels © vs. Devon and Garett Bischoff
Kaz and Devon to begin. Lock up and off the ropes, back spinning elbow by Devon. Tag to Garett, arm drag and then a slam to Kaz. Elbow drop and a cover gets 2. Jaw breaker by Kaz, tag to Daniels and into a hip toss by Garett. Slam and a cover for 2. Tag to Devon, slam to Daniels and then a leg drop connects. That gets 2. Tag to Garett, double hip toss to Daniels, and then an atomic drop by Garett. Kaz distracts Garett, STO by Daniels. Tag to Kaz now, works over Garett and then tags Daniels in. Back elbow and then drives Garett to the mat. He covers and gets 2. Daniels slams Garett to the corner, lays the boots to him and then the champions try to double team, Garett fights back and rolls for a tag. Devon is the old house of fire, neck breaker and then a clothesline takes the champs down. Devon covers Kaz for 2, as Daniels failed to hit Devon and then hit Kaz. SPEAR by Devon connects to Kaz. Daniels in with the title belt, Garett tossed to the floor. Spinebuster by Devon on Daniels, but Kaz is legal and nails Devon with the tag title belt, and that is all.
: Kazarian and Daniels @ 4:00 via pin
-We see clips from Sting's meeting with Brooke Hogan from last week.
-Sting says he promised to take care of Brooke as best as he can, so he says that she is not here tonight for her safety. Sting is here, and he calls out Aces and Eights.
-We get a video package for Sunday's Hardcore Justice PPV.
-Robbie E & T are in the ring. Robbie E says that no one thinks he has a chance at winning the BFG Series. Newsflash, he has 5 points bro. And Sunday at Hardcore Justice, he will win 20 points, and then he will be on his way to Bound for Glory. He plans to put Jeff hardy through the table to do so. He won his 5 points off of Hardy, as we see a replay of his count out victory. He will list reasons why hardy is not on his level. He wears sweaters, and Hardy wears wife beaters. This draws out Hardy. Robbie E invites him to the party, and says he beat him for 5 points repeatedly. Robbie E continues to mock Hardy, and he hits the ring and tosses Robbie T to the floor. Robbie E begs off now, and Hardy fist bumps and lays out Robbie E. He goes to put him through the table and Robbie T is back in and they beat down Hardy. Robbie T picks up hardy and powerbombs him through the table. Robbie E goes insane celebrating.
-AJ is asked about the Claire situation, and AJ says he has been thinking about it. He says he doesn't drink, so you would think that he would remember having sex with her. Anyway, he says he is jet lagged and has to focus on the match with Angle.
-Tenay and Taz hype Hardcore Justice. Samoa Joe says everyone comes out and says what they will do in the BFG Series, but he never gets the chance. Sunday, you will see him beat down AJ, Angle and Daniels. He was rather angry there.
-Claire Lynch is in the crowd, saying, "YEAH BABY" as AJ makes his way to the ring.
Bound for Glory Series Match: AJ Styles vs. Kurt Angle
Lock up to begin, AJ looks to work the arm. Off the ropes and AJ tattoos Angle with a sweet dropkick. Springboard cross body by AJ hits Angle on the top of the head, looks as if that sucked. We head to a commercial @ 1:00.
We are back from a commercial @ 4:00, as Angle slams AJ to the corner. AJ fires back and then runs into an overhead belly to belly suplex. Snap mare by Angle, and he works a chinlock. AJ fights to his feet, escapes and delivers chops to Angle. To the corner, AJ sidesteps Angle, but ends up running into a tilt a whirl backbreaker. Angle covers for 2. We see Claire chanting for AJ, that's love kids. Angle working the chinlock, AJ to his feet and escapes. Rights follow, chops, off the ropes and they clothesline each other. BOTH men are down as the referee counts. To their feet, clotheslines and a back kick by AJ. DVD into a neck breaker by AJ, and that gets a close 2. AJ to the apron, springboard, misses and a German by Angle! Angle hangs on and gets the second, still holding on and goes for and gets the third. Angle yells for AJ to get up, calling him a bitch, AJ counters the Angle slam with a PELE and covers for 2. Clash try by AJ, countered and Angle gets the Angle slam and covers for 2. STRAPS ARE DOWN! Ankle lock by Angle, AJ counters and escapes, German by AJ! Rolls, and hangs on for a second, but Angle snags the ankle and gets the ankle lock again. AJ almost gets the ropes, but then rolls out sending Angle to the corner. AJ sent to the apron, rights to Angle, Springboard superman forearm by AJ connects! Styles Clash connects, and that gets a REALLY close 2! AJ heads up top, but Angle runs up and gets the overhead belly to belly, and that gets a close 2! Angle works to his feet, and heads up top. MOONSAULT MISSES~! AJ now heads to the apron, springboard 450 EATS KNEES! Angle slam connects! 1…2…3!
: Kurt Angle @ 13:00 via pin
-AJ struggles to his feet and leaves the ring. Claire tells his he did a good job and did his best. AJ blows her off. Come on man, you have to be better than that to the mother of your child.
-We get a new video from Aces and Eights. They say that they have sent messages and have been given the dead man's hand. The next target is close, and tonight, you will see who gets the dead man's hand.
-Anderson goes to Storm and says his boys are really funny, discussing Aces and Eights. Anderson says every time they do something it seems to help Storm. Storm denies being involved. Anderson says if it isn't Storm, that is fine, but if their next victim happens to be him, they will have a very different discussion.
-Austin Aries is on the phone discussing the contract that Roode is refusing. Aries says that he doesn't deal with this stuff, and he has nothing to do with it. Tonight they will handle it like men so that there is a main event on Sunday.
Non-Title Match: Gail Kim vs. Miss Tessmacher ©
Kim attacks at the bell and they spill to the floor. A short brawl, back in and Kim hits the stun gun. To the corner, and Kim catches Tessmacher and gets a gut buster, and that gets a cover for 2. Corner splash by Kim, and then stand son the chest of Tessmacher. Kim lays the boots to Tessmacher, missing the first, but then delivers European uppercuts. Off the ropes, Tessmacher back with a flying forearm. Rights to Kim follow, Kim back with the knee to the gut and then applies a body scissors. Tessmacher escapes, but Kim back with another gut buster and remains in control. Tessmacher back with rights, and a clothesline follows. Dropkick by Tessmacher connects, off the ropes and to the corner, and Tessmacher with a springboard clothesline. Running ass ram to Kim and then she basically stink faces Kim. Tessmacher then gets the facebuster deal she does for the pin. It has no name.
: Miss Tessmacher @ 4:00 via pin
-And now for something fun…
-Madison Rayne makes her way out to the ring. She is here to see her boyfriend Earl, who was the ref for the match. She stares down with Tessmacher, and then gives Earl a big sloppy kiss. Yup.
-Joseph Park is backstage, and says people have been asking him about the big contract signing. It reminds him of a case he did in 2003, a shining moment. But this is the thing he tried to warn Sting about last week. This thing could be intense. He then runs off to see a client.
-We see Kenny King pinning Zema Ion in last week's tag team match, which got King a title shot. We then get a video package for Kenny King, discussing his big gamble he took coming to TNA.
-Time for the big contract signing. Sting, minus his face paint, is out to officiate the contract signing. Sting calls Roode and Aries to the ring so that they can make things official. Aries sits and chills, while Roode refuses. Sting says they need to sign the contract, and Roode says that the contract is his problem. In the contract, it says that if Roode loses on Sunday, that he doesn't get another title shot as long as Aries is the champion. Roode says he refuses to sign, because Sting has always had issues with him. Sting has always tried to one up him, even to this day, even after Aries' fluke victory. Roode says the games are over, and says unless the contract changes, he won't sign and there will be no main event Sunday. Aries says enough bitching and moaning. Aries then says Roode may like some cheese with his wine. For a man that is so convinced that Aries won via fluke, Roode is very concerned about a rematch clause. Aries says he won't give him any more reasons to bitch, and they can make a verbal agreement. Aries says when he beats Roode on Sunday, Roode will not get a rematch against him. But if Roode wins, Aries will wave his rematch clause. So this will be the last time for the title on Sunday, that is his deal. Sting asks if that is the deal, and says to shake on it. Roode shakes with Sting, as does Aries. They have a deal. Roode says in three days, the title comes home. They tease a brawl, Roode then offers to shake. He agrees and then Roode tosses water in Aries's face. Roode bails as Sting holds Aries back.
-Bully Ray vs. James Storm is next.
-Chavo Guerrero says he is here to be the best and face the best. Gunner and Kash says that they have a PPV match, and we also see video highlights of Chavo's debut match.
Bound for Glory Series Match: James Storm vs. Bully Ray
And here we go with the main event. Ray asks were Aces and Eights are, and then backs off. Back in, lock up and Ray works the arm. Storm counters, clubbing shots by Ray and then a clothesline by Storm. Big boot by Ray, and Storm crawls to a corner. Ray tosses him to the floor, and we head to a commercial @ 1:00.
We are back from a commercial @ 5:00, with Ray missing an elbow drop. Rights by Storm, but Ray slams him to the mat. Ray working a knee bar, looking for the extra submission points. Storm counters with a knee bar of his own, Ray fights and gets the ropes. Clothesline by Ray gets 2. Clubbing shots to the chest by Ray, rights to the head follow. Ray just beating Storm down here, off the ropes and MISSES the big splash. Storm to his feet, rights to Ray. Boot, face buster and then a big backdrop. Corner charge, Storm to the apron and an enziguri to Ray. Back in the ring and runs into a Uranage for 2 by Ray. Bully bomb countered, boot by Storm and then up top. Cross body connects and that gets 2. Storm back up top, but Ray crotches him. Chops by Ray, he follows Storm up, knocked off and Storm MISSES the top rope elbow drop. BULLY BOMB connects, and that gets a close 2. Ray to the second rope, MISSES the back splash! Storm up, lung blower to Ray. Storm now sets, last call superkick almost hits the ref as Ray pulled him in front. Roll up by Storm for 2. BULLY CUTTER gets the win for Ray!
: Bully Ray @ 11:00 via pin
-Ray yells at Storm and asks where Aces and Eights are. Ray begs him to send for them, and we hear the guys from Aces and Eights on the video screen. They say that Bully will see a lot more of them on Sunday. Ray asks Storm if "his boys" are coming for him…
-End scene….
Claire Lynch's Acting Abilities
* James Storm - 66 points
* Samoa Joe - 54 points
* Kurt Angle - 48 points
* Mr. Anderson - 40 points
* Jeff Hardy - 35 points
* Rob Van Dam - 35 points
* Daniels - 33 points
* Bully Ray - 28 points
* Magnus - 21 points
* A.J. Styles - 16 points
* The Pope - 7 points
* Robbie E. - 5 points
* Chavo Guerrero and Hernandez vs. Gunner and Kid Kash
Bound for Glory Series Falls Count Anywhere Match
: Rob Van Dam vs. Magnus vs. Mr. Anderson vs. the Pope
Bound for Glory Series Tables Match
: Bully Ray vs. James Storm vs. Jeff Hardy vs. Robbie E
Bound for Glory Series Ladder Match
: AJ Styles vs. Christopher Daniels vs. Kurt Angle vs. Samoa Joe
TNA Women's Title Match
: Brooke Tessmacher © vs. Madison Rayne
X-Division Title Match
: Zema Ion © vs. Kenny King
TNA World Title Match
: Austin Aries © vs. Bobby Roode
WHAT DID YOU THINK ABOUT TONIGHT's TNA IMPACT?
What Did You Think of TNA Impact Wrestling?
Your heart is free. Have the courage to follow it…TO CSONKA'S TWITTER!
TNA Conference Call With Brooke Tessmacher Discussing Her Career, Winning the Knockouts Title, Hardcore Justice, More
TNA Knockouts Champion Brooke Tessmacher was the guest on today's TNA conference call. During the call, she discussed her time in WWE, the big differences between here careers in WWE and then TNA, her emotional title victory, working live events, progressing as a performer, her twin sister (any why she is not in wrestling) Sunday's Hardcore Justice PPV, going to the UK for the first time and more. . You can check out the show
at this link
, or via the player below…
Top 8 Worst Series Finales
Snipes Rumored for
Blade 4
Upton Responds To Leaked Nude Pics
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Redskins Defense Starting to take Shape | Fanspeak.com
A look at where the Redskins defense stands right now and what else they might need to do to fix their defense for next season.
Redskins expected to host OT Donald Penn | Washington Post The Insider
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers released Penn earlier this week. He has started 108 consecutive games dating from the 2007 season. He has spent the majority of his career at left tackle, but Washington has interest in acquiring him to play right tackle.
Redskins and Ryan Clark have yet to reach an agreement | Washington Post The Insider
The Washington Redskins hosted free agent safety Ryan Clark on Thursday and continued negotiations with his representative Thursday evening and part of Friday, but have yet to reach an agreement on a deal. The safety continues to field interest from other teams, his agent, Joel Turner, said.
5 Possibilities at Center for the Redskins | Real Redskins
Kory Lichtensteiger-He is the favorite as of now. Gruden would prefer a bigger guard so Lichtensteiger could slide to center and newly acquired Shawn Lauvao will go into his guard spot.
Hatcher's Contract Favorable for Redskins | ESPN Redskins Blog
Hatcher received a $9-million signing bonus and has $10.5 million guaranteed. There's no guaranteed money after the first year and with his base salary escalating by a considerable amount in the third year, the Redskins could cut him and he would count $4.5 million against the cap (unless they can spread it out over two years at $2.25 million per). It's hard to imagine Hatcher getting to that final season considering his cap hit would be hefty for a player who would be 35 entering the season. But if he's still playing well? Different story.
Jason Hatcher: My game is getting upfield | ESPN Redskins Blog
"My game was getting upfield and causing havoc," Hatcher, who signed his four-year, $27.5 million deal Friday, said in a conference call with local reporters. "Not just sitting back and reading blocks. I'm able to get up and disrupt and penetrate gaps. I took my game to another level. In a 3-4 a lot of guys sit back ... but they have great stuff for me, and I can get upfield and cause havoc like I've been doing."
Doc Walker Performs Rivalry Baptism on Jason Hatcher (Video) - HTTR4LIFE.com


text: My Girls First time here? Use the CustomInk design lab to make your own t-shirts! Is it a winner? Current Score4.5 View full-size image Design Your Own < previous next > "We are all fighting a hard battle. So now we are always remembering that we are not alone" - vicky13 (Sep 06, 2009) Similar Photos: canada | toronto | health fitness beauty Share this photo: Twitter Facebook comment by anonymous - Mar 20, 2010 - back to the top this is disturbing. if it's clinging to the ed how is it helping?


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A homecoming-night dare turns into a runaway nightmare for a trio of high-school friends who unleash an evil spirit in this terrifying entry in the [[Feature~V331879~Urban Legends~urbanlegends[filmseries]]] series from [[Feature~V37830~Pet Sematary~petsematary]] director [[Performer~P98546~Mary Lambert~marylambert]]. Everyone knows the legend of Bloody Mary, but when three high-school friends jokingly recite an ancient incantation for what they believe to be a harmless prank, a vengeful spirit is...more
All Urban Legends: Bloody Mary cast + crew photos
Movies.com, the ultimate source for everything movies, is your destination for new movie trailers, reviews, photos, times, tickets + more! Stay in the know with the latest movie news and cast interviews at Movies.com.


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Helter Kremlin
Senior Member
Mines Jarvan.
Leblanc. Snare at level 1 for high chance of first blood (adc play Draven please ). Ability to chunk 50% of the support/carry's HP at level 6. Never get killed while warding. Build a Mejai's and rack up assists or kills and you stay relevant as a damage dealer late game while also using the gold from philo/kage's to ward.
a lurker above
Talon. Keep them at bay with W until 6, when you can usually burst one or both of the enemy down far enough for the carry to finish. Works best against sustain/farm lanes. Wouldn't want to try vs Taric/Graves.
My favorite non-support is Elise actually. She has a deadly poke with just a level one human Q and she can easily peel an enemy for her teammate to kill with her kit.She also has her own stun to help setup a free kill.
Orianna. Has everything in her kit for a FANTASTIC support. Poke/bush check. Shield + armor/mr. Slow/Speed. AMAZING positioning ulti.
I love supporting with Jarvan! Too bad my adcs feel the need to get caught in my ult... ;p
Aside from him, I've ran a MF/Nasus bot lane before... Eternal slows (as the enemy bot lane called it)!
Cait/Nid is fun (double traps)
Any adc/Heimer is rough if you're squishy
Zyra or Lux is also pretty annoying.
Also Fiddlesticks and Maokai, but mostly just Jarvan.
Junior Member
I find Volibear to be pretty fun. Activate frenzy and bite the adc or support in the face. He's a great lane bully who can set up some easy kills if the enemy's positioning is off. Also, it is pretty easy to bait people if they forget about your passive.
© 2013 Riot Games, Inc. All rights reserved. Riot Games, League of Legends and PvP.net are trademarks, services marks, or registered trademarks of Riot Games, Inc.


text:
New Year's Eve Look
Written by Elessa, Posted in Other Beauty Videos
charismastar is one of my favorite youtubers. She is sweet and has major talent. I saw this in my sub box and had to share. What do you think? Where would you wear this look out to? xxo Elessa product list


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Just Things I Like Alot
A Positively Beautiful Blog
❤love the farmstyle coffee table
Repurposed crib into porch chair. Love the idea of being able to use my kids bed...... great memory!
Simple outdoor ideas that are incredibly creative
So many furniture re-do's on this blog! Pin now, Read later
Simple outdoor ideas that are incredibly creative
Bed in a closet- leaves the bedroom open for other furniture and creates a cozy little hideout to sleep in
love the checkered floor!
As a child I wanted to live in one of these; read "The Diddakoi", so good
Pretty~ I like the pink air conditioner...camper
Polka dots just make ya happy
loooove. I think this is beyond cool....1950 United travel trailer
There are many forgotten mobile living designs that came before the now-classic Airstream, like the curious hybrid car + house shown above.


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Rising fuel costs have pushed electric vehicles (EVs) to theforefront but having an eco-friendly electric vehicle is still a work in progress. EVs powered by solar electricity seems to slowly gain groundas an eco-friendly money-saver option, thanks to Radio DJ Mark Goodier,who has become the first Briton to run a car power-driven by sunlight.
Goodier uses 12 solar panels to generate electricity. These panelsare put up on the roof of his house in Hampstead, North London. Thepanels efficiently produce enough electricity to charge his car.Surprisingly, he also has some electricity left over to be sold toNational Grid. Thus, Mark Goodier very easily manages to complete his20-mile daily journey free of cost.
His electric Nissan Leaf takes eight hours for one full charge andruns with a speed of 90 miles per hour. The solar panels cost £12,500and have been installed by Dean Keeling from British Gas. Government has decided to pay him £1,200 per year for 25 years. Goodier is more thanhappy about the fact that he no more has to visit petrol stations. Hefeels great when he realizes that he is actually contributing towards agreener environment in his own small way.
Source: Dailymail


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Elementary & High School Employment Opportunities
At the Santa Fe Waldorf School music is an important part of the curriculum, with all grades from 4th onward taking part in instrumental instruction. The High School is presently seeking an adjunct guitar experienced in classical guitar technique to teach two forty-five minute periods per week. Any prospective candidate should be willing to work in a small group of students with mixed abilities and experience. Participation in at least two annual student performances (dates and times to be determined) is a requirement of this position.
SALARY: This is a part-time, hourly, adjunct instructor position for the 2014/15 academic year. Compensation for this role is dependent on experience.
TO APPLY FOR THE POSITION: Interested candidates should submit a brief letter of introduction and a resume of music teaching experience/employment history. The Hiring Committee will be accepting applications until the position is filled.
Interested candidates should send the requested materials to:
Hiring Committee
Santa Fe Waldorf School
26 Puesta del Sol
Santa Fe, NM 87508
To submit your resume for any available position:
Interested applicants for any available position are invited to send a letter of introduction, a brief biography, and a resume in Word format (.doc file) or as a PDF file. Please state which position you would like to be considered for via email.
Or mail to:
Santa Fe Waldorf School
Attn: Hiring Committee
26 Puesta del Sol
Santa Fe, NM 87508
Employment Application Form - to be filled out only upon requested of the Hiring Committee
Santa Fe Waldorf School Diversity Statement
The Santa Fe Waldorf School is non-sectarian and does not discriminate on the basis of gender, race, color, religion, disability, sexual orientation, or national and ethnic origin in its educational, administrative, admission, athletic, and school programs and policies.


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Eleventh doctor: I will not forget one line of this, not one day, I swear. I will always remember when The Doctor was me.
Twelfth Doctor: WHO THE FUCK ARE YOU? WHO THE FUCK AM I? I CAN'T REMEMBER A DAMN THING
thisis(still)mousemonth day 10
Day 10: Doggy Style but i fuckin cheated again hah
so i'm actually kinda nervous about this one for dumb reasons BUT HEY HAVE SOME MORE PORN HOPE YOU LIKE MARCO'S BOOTY AS MUCH AS I DO
also like rimming, body image things, drug mention once, uhhh… i think that's it
oh and porn. yeah. HAHA FLEES
Read More
jean kirschstein??? nah what a jerk what a— [trips] [hundreds of thousands of photos of jean spill out of jacket] w-what a fuckign asshole i these arent mine im just [gathering them up frantically sweating] listen i just listen fuck [thousands of pictures of jean scatter across the floor] shit fcuk im holding them for a friend just listen
(via prince-alibaba)


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Upcoming Sessions:
Spring 2014:
Session is full
Summer 2014:
Session 1; June 30 - July 11 (10 days, there is class on July 1)
Session 2; July 14 - July 25 (10 days)
Session 3; July 28 -August 8 (9 days, NO class on August 4)
Summer Lessons run Monday to Friday for 10 days from 11:30am to 6:00pm.
Lessons are at the Berkshire Club
Many parents have inquired about official tax receipts for the Winter Session and some
previous sessions from 2006. We discussed the matter with our accountant and here's a
summary of what we have been advised. Click here for more info.