text:
...says Denzel Valentine of Big Ten Tourney favorite MSU, which is 5-7 in its last 12 games. Cumong, man.
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Picture Pages: Scraping, Bubbling
Picture Pages: you see, Rudy, sometimes you just need to break down a play that's representative of a larger trend. This series picks out a play or two per game that seem significant in the grand scheme of things, Theo, and attempts to explain why. Vanessa.
I brought this up in UFR and wanted to make it clearer so here goes. This is a first and 15 on Michigan's first drive of the day.
Michigan lines up in one of their common sets, a three-wide shotgun look. Here the tight end is lined up as an H-back. Michigan often used the h-back as a pass blocker for Forcier rollouts, but this time he's going to go with the play. Western aligns in a 4-3 look with the nickel back shaded inside of the slot receiver. Michigan will run a zone read, and Western will do a version of a scrape exchange. In brief: in a scrape, the backside defensive end will take off after the tailback instead of maintaining contain. A weakside linebacker or corner will provide QB contain, thus hopefully minimizing or eliminating the quarterback's athleticism edge over the defender he's dealing with.
Below is the handoff point. As Western did basically the whole game, the unblocked backside end takes off after the tailback. Since this is the guy Forcier is reading, he pulls the ball out. A couple points: Michigan has six blockers against six defenders here and should be content to hand the ball off. As we'll see, Brown's going to end up with a lot of room.
A few moments later we see the scraper coming in: he's the corner/LB who was lined up over Grady. He comes flying in and threatens to tackle Forcier in the backfield. The scrape exchange Michigan saw a lot last year saw the WLB head outside; this one is less vulnerable to the veer or other quick-hitting backside plays that exploit the fact that your WLB is flying around the edge. But there's an obvious cost: HOLY GOD LOOK AT THE SLOT RECEIVER.
Forcier is, in fact, looking at a spectacularly open guy on a bubble route. One of the Western safeties is coming up but he's inside of and ten yards away from a guy who's quicker than him. At best he squares up and holds the gain down. If he misses a tackle Grady is born to run.
Also note the line moving to the second level and sealing those defensive tackles. Michigan had three or four plays like this where the tailback shot up to cavernous gaps in the line of scrimmage without the ball. And this isn't a reaction to Forcier's decision to pull the ball yet; only the WLB has seen that. The frames above make it pretty clear that if Michigan had handed the ball off Schilling was going to cut this guy off.
Forcier, unfortunately, decides against the bubble and cuts directly upfield:
Molk has finished burying the playside DT and if Brown had the ball he'd be cruising, as the WLB who peeled off to Forcier was about to get his clock cleaned by Schilling. But Forcier pulled the ball and then made a poor read, so he's got one option:
Four yards.
- Just because the backside DE is crashing down doesn't mean you have to pull the ball. This would have been a big gainer if Forcier handed it off.
- Scrape exchanges are not a magic pill. They pull defenders out of position and the right play call—or read—can exploit them.
- Forcier is, yes, a freshman. He made a number of mistakes against Western of this variety.
- But even so it's nice to have a guy like Forcier who can turn his mistake into positive yards. Michigan had a lot of screwups in game one but most of them still went forward. That's a huge difference from last year.
Preview: Notre Dame
The Essentials
WHAT | Michigan vs #18 Notre Dame |
WHERE | Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, MI |
WHEN | 3:30 EST, September 12th, 2008 |
THE LINE | Notre Dame -3 |
TELEVISION | Nationwide on ABC |
That's from Chesterton Lep, by the way, who is far more insane than even our recent influx of MS Paint Van Goghs. Insane doesn't actually do it justice.
Run Offense vs. Notre Dame
This has to be crushing victory for Michigan, for now, and for the season. Irish beatwriter Brian Hamilton:
"The defensive line just has question marks all over, whether it's because of youth or that they're generally unproven as performers. And since the Irish haven't been particularly stellar at stopping the run the past couple seasons as it is, it's a concern."
Though Brian Stouffer suggested that Ethan Johnson was a hybrid DE/OLB, that's apparently a matter of some debate. What isn't up for debate is that the Notre Dame front four is way smaller than even Michigan's, and probably about as young. This is from the Irish Eyes publisher:
Junior Ian Williams and sophomore Ethan Johnson are a talented pair, but both struggled vs. the Wolf Pack's veteran front line. Irish defensive ends Kerry Neal and John Ryan are undersized on the right side (quality pass rushers that can struggle at the point of attack) and Notre Dame features a redshirt freshman at left defensive end who played in his first collegiate game last Saturday.
So that's a guy largely responsible for McGuffie mania, a guy I saw on skates against Nevada, and then small, production-free defensive ends. So maybe it's not a surprise that Notre Dame's tackle distribution is extremely encouraging for a team that seeks to pound the ball. It mirrors what happened last year, and last year the Michigan ground game had perhaps the easiest time they'd had against any opponent in South Bend:
After week 1, just as in 2008, the leading tacklers for the Notre Dame fighting Irish are both safeties: Kyle McCarthy with 7 and Harrison Smith with 5. DE Kerry Neal isn't even on the stat sheet, Brian Smith, while making 2 very big plays, didn't make a single other tackle, and Ethan Johnson had 1 tackle all game. Convince me that Michigan (sucks!) wont just run a "9 yards and a cloud of dust" offense against ND all freaking game.
Sorry to link to the short-bus section of the Notre Dame blogosphere, but the tackle distribution is a point of interest.
Notre Dame folk are pointing to Nevada's raw rushing numbers and avoiding the big flashing item of concern: in the limited attempts offered Nevada's clunky tailback he averaged 6.3 YPC. Wolfpack QB Colin Kaepernick averaged 7.5 yards per carry (sacks removed). Total YPC: 6.4. #2 rushing offense of last year, sure, but also a WAC team. In three games against BCS opposition (Texas Tech, Maryland, and Missouri, last year's #61, #71, and #31 rushing defenses) the 2008 Wolfpack averaged 5 YPC (again, sacks removed). Notre Dame's defense was way, way worse than a motley collection of basically meh BCS run defenses. And this was not an artifact of a big lead. Nevada gashed Notre Dame time and again in the first half.
Couple that with last year's Michigan game, which featured virtually the same lines on both sides of the ball and one tailback that proved considerably less effective than the guy Michigan will deploy with gusto on Saturday, and you have a strong argument for Michigan to crush Notre Dame on the ground. This, by all appearances, is not a good run defense.
On the other side of the ball it's mildly concerning that against Western Michigan, a team replacing almost the entirety of its defense and three-quarters of its defensive line, Michigan bogged down a bit. There were numerous holding calls and they could not break any long runs aside from Denard Robinson's moment of magic—not exactly something the coaches drew up. Michigan's offensive line was missing the form they had late in 2008, but that may be an artifact of Western's aggressive scraping. If Notre Dame tries the same thing Michigan will be more likely to take the obvious countermeasures that were wide open against the Broncos.
The mostly healthy return of Brandon Minor will help, and Notre Dame doesn't have anyone as fast as Denard Robinson. This should be a huge advantage for Michigan; if it's not it's hard to see a Michigan win.
Key Matchup: Molk and guards versus Ian Williams and Ethan Johnson. Molk cannot have another game where he struggles and ends up with a couple holding calls. Ethan Johnson was on skates against Nevada and Ian Williams spent last year's Michigan game watching McGuffie run by him from the ground. Michigan needs to dominate this matchup.
Pass Offense vs. Notre Dame
There appears to be one, which is a nice change from last season. Tate Forcier was deadly accurate in his first game as a Michigan quarterback, and that should prove no fluke going forward. The downside of the freshman was entirely in missed reads against both run and pass and a couple of runs that were not as first-down oriented as they should have been.
So it sort of sucks that TAH-NOO-TAH has bumped aside Judas/mole Corwin Brown. Brown spent the last two games against Michigan in a cover-two umbrella and hardly ever blitzed or even put a seventh guy in the box. If Michigan hadn't fumbled six times in last year's game, boy howdy, we might have come within 18 points thanks to Brown's never-ending ability to sit back and calmly consider a situation for three or even four quarters. Tenuta just blitzes from everywhere.
This could go either way. Nevada took a couple of huge sacks and suffered a lot of QB pressure when they went to play action. Play action is an awkward thing in the pistol that requires the quarterback to turn his back away from the line of scrimmage and then end up sucking linebacker if they blitz right. Michigan won't let that happen; their offense never has the quarterback turn away from the line of scrimmage and bases its play action on the zone read, which necessarily occupies one of the defensive ends. But Nevada's passing game had a lot of experience. Michigan has little, and the guy who made the big plays last week is probably on the shelf. One way it could go is Forcier getting buried.
The other way mostly relies on excellent pickups from the backs—Carlos Brown had a couple crushing pickups last week and Brandon Minor is a fine blocker in his own right—and the idea that Forcier is, yes, Drew Tate, a guy extremely comfortable moving around and finding people downfield when the play breaks down. It's dangerous to blitz Pat White and it might be dangerous to blitz Forcier, albeit in a totally different way. If he evades the wave of defenders and breaks out to one side, we've already seen he can direct traffic to good effect.
Notre Dame's secondary is supposed to be pretty good. Safety Kyle McCarthy was the perfect idea of consistency in last year's Michigan game and returns; David Bruton, who was even better, is gone. He's replaced by Harrison Smith. (Notre Dame's version of "Robinson" is "Smith".) Darrin Walls returns from "personal issues" (read: academic issues) and Notre Dame has a stable of highly rated recruits with good experience plus senior Raeshon MacNeil. Unless Darryl Stonum—who was ranked one spot behind Mike Floyd by Rivals—suddenly lives up to the hype, Michigan's not going to get deep much unless it's Kevin Koger or one of the slots on a wheel route.
Those guys will be the key, IME: with Notre Dame blitzing its ass off Michigan will have opportunities underneath and down the seam. A couple of deep Koger completions can turn drives into points.
Key Matchup: Forcier versus his Self-Conception. Tenuta is going to send the kitchen sink and several times Forcier will be forced to scramble out or take a hot read or just do something smart. He did a lot of smart against Western; in high school, though, he responded with a bunch of picks when his offensive line fell off the map.
Run Defense vs. Notre Dame
The Notre Dame run offense exists as a sidelight to the passing game. Against Nevada, Notre Dame had two sorts of plays on the ground:
- Successful runs that exploited Nevada's "explosive" (read: irresponsible) defensive ends and got Allen or Gray in vacated space.
- Things that went about two yards.
That's something of an exaggeration, but… eh… not a huge one. Notre Dame's starting fullback is out and their backup is a converted tailback. As mentioned this morning, Notre Dame plans on rotating through the left side of its line, which is… um… bats, isn't it? Who does that?
As far as the rest of the line, realistic expectations are modest. Hamilton again:
I refuse to believe that offensive linemen who have been around for four or five years suddenly, all at once, in one offseason, go from mediocre to great. It just doesn't work that way. If the offensive line is consistently average, at least it's consistent. If it backslides to the way it's played at times last year and two years ago, it's going to cost Notre Dame a game it shouldn't lose.
It'll be up to Michigan's defensive line to actuate that backslide. That defensive line is not deep, but the first-line guys they run out are all seemingly competent, though Craig Roh remains a wiry true freshman and could find himself targeted when Notre Dame brings in more than one tight end. Which will probably be lots, more on that later.
Notre Dame had an even breakdown of draws, the inside zone, a counter, and an outside toss before they went zone nuts in garbage time. I know Weis will probably pull out 1,000 elephants and a dancing bear against Michigan, but Notre Dame's basic array of running plays won't be anything Michigan hasn't seen. You can put your practice time into one thing or the other and it's clear which phase Weis favors. With Aldridge out and Rudolph putting in a poor blocking display in the first game, Michigan should be able to handle Notre Dame's ground game without committing an extra man. Maybe.
Key Matchup: Obi Ezeh versus Armando Allen. Unless something funky's happened with Notre Dame's offensive line they aren't going to do a whole lot of crushing run blocks, but they will use a ton of misdirection, play action, and draws in an attempt to free up their bombs and exploit opponents set on stopping them. Ezeh displayed several instances of unnecessary hesitancy against Western and could be ripe for exploitation. In space, he must tackle.
Pass Defense vs. Notre Dame
Mmmmm. WAC snacks:
# | Player | Att | Comp | Int | Yards | TD | Conv | Passing Efficiency |
7 | Jimmy Clausen | 18 | 15 | 0 | 315 | 4 | 303.7 | |
10 | Dayne Crist | 2 | 2 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 171.4 | |
Totals | 20 | 17 | 0 | 332 | 4 |
You've probably heard the obvious counterpunch to that re: Nevada, which finished 119th of 119 in I-A pass defense by a landslide last year and then lost two starters from the secondary. Clausen's day wasn't exactly unprecedented. Chase Daniel went 23 of 28 for 405 yards and four touchdowns. And, okay, Chase Daniel is pretty good. But when Louisiana Tech and UNLV combine to average 8.5 YPA and have five touchdowns to no interceptions… well… you're bad. Hawaii wasn't much competition, either. So the jury remains out for a guy whose four games before the WAC parade looked like this:
Opponent | Att | Comp | Int | Yards | TD | Passing Efficiency |
Navy | 18 | 15 | 2 | 110 | 0 | 112.4 |
Syracuse | 39 | 22 | 0 | 291 | 2 | 136 |
It is hereby stipulated that if Michigan gives up a 70-yard bubble screen and an awful underthrown bomb that features Purdue-level tackling, Michigan loses. Those things are in some doubt. I assume it's also stipulated that if Clausen throws two picks and half a touchdown, Notre Dame loses, and that's the average there in Notre Dame's last four games against plausible competition (and Syracuse).
If the Nevada game is an indication, Michigan's inability to go to a nickel package isn't likely to be much of the factor. The Notre Dame opener saw a severe reduction in three-wide sets:
In their place were a ton of standard I-form packages and 2TE ace sets. With Aldridge out, expect ace sets to be even more prevalent. Michigan should be able to match up pretty well against Notre Dame's big two receivers without dipping into the nonexistent corner depth. Not that they'd go to said nonexistent depth anyway: with Stevie Brown at strongside linebacker, the threat of a Robby Parris or Duval Kamara—both ponderous possession sorts—isn't the sort that demands a zippy cornerback. Any personnel grouping other than the base is unlikely.
Okay: base personnel versus base personnel. Advantage: hell if I know. Before the season I was seriously down on this matchup but after watching four different members of Michigan's defensive line tear through the Western offensive line—a veteran unit extremely well-versed in pass blocking—and Donovan Warren try to get a grip on his new super powers, I actually think this tilts more towards neutral.
The main concern is when Notre Dame does something like, oh, I don't know, keep nine guys in to block and run a one-man route with Golden Tate. Everything was going swimmingly in the Western game until they pulled a similar stunt and though the burned corner doesn't figure to play on Saturday unless disaster befalls the secondary, free safety Troy Woolfolk also picked up an ugly –3 in UFR for his part in the play.
Michigan need pressure from the front four against regular (non max-pro) sets, and eventual pressure against the max pro. All of Michigan's guys this year are high motor sorts who will get after the ball; no Terrance Taylors or Will Johnsons who aren't much use against the pass. When the starters are in, Michigan should get pressure, and Clausen still hasn't proven he can deal with pressure.
Key Matchup: God, I've waffled on this a thousand times. I'll settle with Corners Man Up Against Floyd And Tate, as Notre Dame will attempt to take the Michigan defensive line out of the game with max protect a lot and in those instances it will be up to Warren and Cissoko to not get burnt toasty.
Special Teams
This is a virtual unknown for both teams except when Zoltan rolls onto the field ready to shoot lightning bolts down the opponent's face. So… advantage Michigan there. Both kickers are almost totally untested. Jason Olesnavage does have a pretty 44-yard field goal to his credit, and it sounds like Michigan's kickoff guy is considerably better than Notre Dame's. Slight advantage here to Michigan.
Key Matchup: HOLD ON TO THE DAMN BALL.
Cheap Thrills
Worry if...
- Receivers are shaking free from the cornerbacks even a little.
- Rodriguez doesn't have a TAH-NOO-TAH counterpunch.
- Notre Dame's offensive line looks competently coached for a change.
Cackle with knowing glee if...
- Notre Dame's defensive line is just as prone to skate backwards as they were last year.
- Rodriguez has a package that neutralizes the blitz.
- They don't double Brandon Graham.
Fear/Paranoia Level: 5 out of 10. (Baseline 5, +1 Hey That Touchdown Last Week Looked Familiar, +1 for And Wow We Are Going Up A Team That Would Win The WAC, –1 for …But Is Still Coached By Charlie Weis, –1 for …And I Can't Emphasize This Enough, –1 for… Seriously, +1 for …Okay Maybe That One Was Excessive, +1 for Major Quarterback Experience Deficiency, –1 for But Our Defensive Line Should Consume Their Souls, –1 for And I Know We Worked Harder, Apparently, You Dolphin Puncher, +1 for It Takes Time To Dig Out From 3-9.).
Desperate need to win level: 7 out of 10. (Baseline 5, –1 Sort Of Playing With House Money, Right?, +1 for Yeah, Sort Of Not, +1 for Boy All That Hot Seat Talk Would Go From Frustrating To Entertaining, +1 for I Love Me Some This Week In Notredamenfreude Fodder, –1 for Home Dog And Close Loss Is Understandable, +1 for This Week Always Reminds Me That Internet Notre Dame Fans Should Be Shot Into Space.)
Loss will cause me to... probably curse Angry Michigan Safety-Hating God.
Win will cause me to... start thinking New Year's Day.
The strictures and conventions of sportswriting compel me to predict:
I think I changed my mind from earlier in the week, when I predicted Notre Dame victories a couple of times. The main reasons for this reversal:
observation of the ND DL against Nevada coupled with a closer look at the stats and the words out there.
minute UFR evaluations of Donovan Warren.
minute UFR evaluations of Michigan's starting DL and the pass rush that comes from everywhere.
Given the data the biggest mismatch in this game is not the Notre Dame passing offense against the Michigan secondary, but the Michigan ground game against Notre Dame's defensive line. I think Forcier can make the blitz backfire just enough and Michigan will pop more guys free than Notre Dame. Clausen's potential improvement is the wildcard. If he's actually as good as he's looked against the WAC, Michigan loses. I don't think he is.
In a game where both teams figure to get to the quarterback a lot, it's about coping with that. Michigan's run game is better prepared to do that than Notre Dame's, and Tate Forcier might not be too far off Clausen with his "scrambling" and "playing for a high school that did something other than win 63-7."
I reserve the right to change my opinion ten minutes into tomorrow's game. I've already waffled once this week, and I have almost no faith in the predictions I'm about to put on the line. But I do have a little.
Finally, opportunities for me to look stupid Sunday:
- Michigan does some crazy trick play stuff.
- Michigan tailbacks crack into the secondary lots, with Minor, Shaw, and Brown getting a near-equal distribution of the carries. Quarterback runs are down considerably.
- Notre Dame gets a bomb to Tate; Floyd is contained by Warren.
- Brandon Graham gets two sacks.
- Michigan, 27-23.
Vicious Electronic Questioning: Notre Dame
Hello once again. When Michigan plays the sort of opponent that actually has opposition bloggers this here blog tends to flag one of them down and relentlessly grill them until they are convinced their team will meet ignominious defeat. The best and creepiest of these are always with Brian Stouffer of the House Rock Built, who was also this week's featured podcast guest and has contributed the Notre Dame season preview to Hail To The Victors since it was conceived.
So… here we go. If you treasure your sanity you will stop here. I'm in bold. Update: Second half posted.
Shall we do this?
Yesum. IIRC we trade off asking each other questions about the other guy's team and then post 80 pics of Tom Hammond.
It's not football without nightmare fuel.
he's just so… eager
In this, Notre Dame and Michigan fans are united. In fact, I have specific requests for Tom Hammond this year.
For a second, I thought you wrote "from Tom Hammond" I don't want to know what disgusting things Tom Hammond has specifically requested of you.
If he promised me last year would never happen again I would do anything. ...but I won't do that [/meatloaf]
All right. To the questionings. Jimmy Clausen has thrown for ten zillion yards on 85% completions against WAC snacks the last two games. Before that he was good but interception-happy. What happens when, or if, Michigan covers people and stuff. Still a force-it gunslinger or more polished?
It's probably fair to say that the third year in a program is when the lights usually come on for a quarterback and he reaches his potential. Most quarterbacks are spared the indignity of having to take snaps as a starter those first two years and swiftly proceed to get crunched into lunchmeat and heave up wobbling ducks into hungry secondaries.
As such, I think Jimmy has finally developed a level of confidence and understanding of the college game so that he can actually perform like the spiky-haired wünderkid second-coming of Sir Jesus Christ that he is instead of the last few years of frightened-gazelle ineptitude. He's got a good, accurate arm, a gaggle of talented receivers, and a line in front of him that gives me great hopes of him surviving well past puberty.
Aw, man, but I read that Weis is actually rotating his LT and LG. That seems suicidal. If 2 QB = 0 QB how many LTs does 2 LTs equal?
Well, the fact of the matter is that this line doesn't have a prototypical genetic freak to lock down the LT position. Sometimes there's no shame in two guys banding together to do the work of one man. It's kind of like how me and my buddy teamed up to date this supermodel. I had the hot body and the dashing good looks, and he could write like totally beautiful sonnets and shit. It worked out pretty well, I think.
So Duncan is the Brian Stouffer of the offensive line and Romine is the Cyrano de Bergerac.
This reminds me of a story about Padma Lakshimi and Salman Rushdie.
Exactly. There's always something going on behind the scenes.
All right, so while we're on the subject of quarterbacks. Your more or less starting quarterback is named Tate. Now, I know it's only one game into his career, but do you think there's any chance that, over the course of his lifetime, he will equal or surpass the achievements of child-star-turned-minor-TV-personality and world's-most-famous-Tate Tate Donovan? Keep in mind that Tate Donovan bagged Sandra Bullock and Jennifer Aniston. In their primes!
Never underestimate the potential of Michigan quarterbacks to bag Victoria's Secret models or be erroneously named one of People's 50 Most Beautiful People. Hell, even NFL non-entity and non-quarterback Chris Howard bagged Gabrielle Union. It is his destiny to sleep with many beautiful women.
obvs, lolwut
You could say it's part of the... Forcier.
I will go shoot myself now. Oh, right, all out of bullets after last year.
Football-wise and keeping with the Tate theme: I compared him to Drew Tate before I ever saw him and I still think that's the right comparison. His first touchdown was pure Tate, scrambling out of the pocket and moxie-ing up a touchdown. It's always very confusing to talk about this. Certain "Who's on First" qualities.
What if he married Notre Dame's #2 receiver? Then his name would be Tate Tate.
That would be the bloodiest wedding ever. After the vows everyone's head would explode and there would just be pools of blood around spurting corpses and, in the back, Quentin Tarantino furiously… well… you know. Enjoying it.
first hit on google images for "Quentin Tarantino [enjoying it]". srsly.
Wow. I think I just topped the Tom Hammond picture.
I'm impressed on our ability to up the creepy ante every year.
We have been following our teams' leads.
Heh. I think your somewhat starting quarterback has a bad football name. I always think "Tate Forcier: Licensed Aquatherapist" when I hear his name. Now Denard Robinson, that's a name you can set your watch to.
Yes, but it's too bad Robinson has the accuracy of a tommy-gunner on speed. On the other hand: he's also got the generalized mayhem of one.
I've heard him compared to Usain Bolt without the passing ability.
I'm trying to pick out which electron orbital he goes in, actually. Usain Bolt is old news. Wake me up when that guy starts moving fast enough to slow his own time.
Best not to even try to observe him... you'll alter the result by doing so.
I would recommend that course of action for your linebackers. Not that they'll need that advice since they'll just be running upfield as fast as they can on every snap.
Tenuta thirsts for blood.
But seriously, going back to the 2QB=0QB theorem, wouldn't that make 4 QB's the equivalent of, like, Euler's Constant QB's?
I don't think the QB constant exists in the realm of accepted mathematics.
Is this QB carousel distressing for Michigan fans?
no reason except perpetual awesome
When it stops on #8--Sheridan--yes. But I think most people are envisioning a version of Tebow-Leak, albeit a way suckier one, and are fine with the rotation. If they bring Robinson in and just run unsuccessfully people will be irritated, I think.
Are you concerned about all the interior running Nevada did? I think I saw Ethan Johnson get dumped ten yards downfield once. He seems pretty light and thin for a DT.
I think a bit of that was schematic... playing a team that runs a gimmicky über-spread offense makes it important to really spread out sideline to sideline at the expense of lightening up the pressure in the middle and relying on your second level to keep anything big from happening.
Johnson is a curiosity... he's shown himself to be a very gifted pass rusher and interior presence despite his size, and with the defensive scheme modified around to make him kind of a hybrid OLB thing, hopefully he won't be put into any huge physical mismatches.
Michigan would qualify as gimmick über-spread.
Well... über is a term I would apply to a team who finished #2 last year in rushing yards
Not for a spread team that finished number...
59! Above average!
There you go. Let's not hand out umlauts like they're candy.
So... Johnson is a DE/OLB? Are you running a 3-4 still?
Not really but kind of but not really. With Tenuta's blitz patterns, the hard and fast rules of personnel groupings get a bit nebulous
It seems like Michigan's general source of horror in these matchups is giving up the long pass. I'm not sure if you noticed, but the Irish had a receiver that averaged 50 yards a catch last week. Has anything been done about this, or should I expect to sing the Benny Hill theme song a few times on Saturday?
Well... I don't think Michigan is going to give up a 70-yard bubble screen or be quite as comically inept as the Nevada DB was on that underthrown ball. If either of these things happen, it's losin' time. And actually the top two corners are both hyped recruits who looked pretty good against Western. Donovan Warren was running ahead of WMU's big play guy on three separate deep balls. That guy isn't terrifying like Floyd, but I do think Warren has a shot at shutting him down and ramping up his own hype train. FS Troy Woolfolk is fast but got caught flat-footed on that long touchdown; hopefully Michigan spends the week telling him to ignore the run and get back. I think you'll see at least one bomb connect, and I think Michigan can win despite that. If a second lands, which is totally possible... well... nuts.
The remainder! At House Rock Built! Woo!
but first!
Hemingway "Questionable"
No this isn't about a Farewell To Arms. Michigan's first official injury report ever (EVER!):
For the Notre Dame game on Saturday, Sept. 12:
Nader Furrha (shoulder)
Tim McAvoy (knee)
Fitzgerald Toussaint (shoulder)
Questionable (50 % chance of playing):
Junior Hemingway (ankle)
Probable (75% chance of playing):
Brandon Minor (ankle)
In addition, head coach Rich Rodriguez announced the game captains for the 3:30 p.m. game against Irish: linebacker Stevie Brown, superback Kevin Grady, right guard David Moosman and defensive end Tim North.
But on Rodriguez's radio show they used a different, worse word:
Michigan coach Rich Rodriguez said on his radio show Thursday that receiver Junior Hemingway is "doubtful" for Saturday's showdown with No 18 because of a sprained ankle. …
"He's a big big-play guy for us, so we're hoping he can come back," Rodriguez said. "I don't know if he'll be ready this game. If not, hopefully the next game."
Bler! Stupid Angry Michigan Receiver-Hating Czarist Nobles. Minor, at least, seems likely to go.
MGoPodcast 1.3: Western Recap And Notre Dame Preview
It's podcast time once again. This week it's a bit longer and in two sections. Actually, three sections: Tim and I talk about the Western game, I yell at Tim for playing a flash game with like anime farmers or some crazy thing, and then we talk to Brian Stouffer of the House Rock Built (and Vicious Electronic Questionings past) about Notre Dame. Conversation is civil, and I promise not to post a Yakety Sax after a tight, well-played game. The other person who identifies himself as Brian, I note retroactively, makes no such promise. Dastardly.
It look's like you don't have Adobe Flash Player installed. Get it now.
MGoPodcast 1.3: Notre Dame Preview
Upon Further Review: Offense vs Western Michigan
Offensive UFRs come with a bit more lingo you have to understand. So, on passing plays you'll see (CA, 3, protection 1/1) or something similar. The first item is how I classified the throw. This goes in the Hennechart, which I guess is now the Tatelace chart or something. The second item is what I rated the ball for the wide receiver. 3 is routine, 2 difficult but catchable, 1 a circus catch if made, and 0 is totally uncatchable. The last number is a protection rating assigned to the offensive line. Depending on how long the QB stuck in the pocket and how many rushers there are, the OL can get from 1-3 points. When the opponent gets pressure the OL will lose points and I'll assign the negatives to either a single player (if he was beaten) or the team (if there's a missed blitz pickup that's not easily localizable). I do hand out +/- but don't aggregate them because they don't mean much on offense. For the last couple years Genuinely Sarcastic has been putting together RunFRs that focus just on the ground game and do provide systematic evaluations for the OL and backs; hopefully that will continue.
UPDATE: It was already posted by the time I got it up. You win this time, GS.
A note on Western's defensive alignments: their smallish slot-covering OLB/S guy may technically be a linebacker, which would make all the "nickel" packages below 4-3s but he was real small and the distinction doesn't matter much.
Ln | Dn | Ds | O Form | TE | RB | WR | D Form | Type | Play | Player | Yards |
M48 | 1 | 10 | Shotgun 3-wide | 1 | 1 | 3 | Nickel | Pass | PA Rollout Hitch | Hemingway | 5 |
Zone playfake one way coupled with Koger peeling back to pick up a pass block on the defensive end. WMU is going with a scrape read, though, so a linebacker is coming up hard and Forcier has to dump. Pass on the run to Hemingway is accurate; immediate tackle. (CA, 3, protection 1/1) | |||||||||||
O47 | 2 | 5 | Shotgun 3-wide | 1 | 1 | 3 | Nickel | Run | Zone read handoff | Brown | 3 |
Michigan's quicker on their tempo here, getting to the line and snapping the ball with 23 seconds left on the playclock. We miss the first chunk of the play because of this. When we come back, Huyge(-1) has gotten beat and there's no crease on the frontside between Schilling and Molk, though those guys have moved the LOS a bit. Brown's swamped and falls forward for three. | |||||||||||
O44 | 3 | 2 | Shotgun 3-wide | 1 | 1 | 3 | Nickel | Pass | Scramble | Forcier | 3 |
Michigan rolls out like they did on the first play and gets a block on the edge; unfortunately, Western is blitzing a safety right into this. Forcier's got Odoms but has to juke the safety, which he does, and juke two more Bronco defenders before getting a crunching first down. Excellent play. (PR, N/A, protection N/A) | |||||||||||
O41 | 1 | 10 | Shotgun Empty | 1 | 1 | 3 | Nickel | Pass | Bubble screen | Odoms | 7 (Pen -5) |
This gets called back for "illegal motion" as Odoms jumps the snap and starts running his route, but... why is it illegal motion? You can have a guy moving as long as it's not towards the LOS, and Odoms wasn't moving towards the LOS. Anyway: Forcier shortens the throw—not sure if that's intentional—which allows Odoms to dart inside of Koger and the guy he's trying to block not very well. Odoms then jets outside for a gain of seven; excellent YAC given the situation. (CA, 3, protection N/A) | |||||||||||
O46 | 1 | 15 | Shotgun 3-wide | 1 | 1 | 3 | Nickel | Run | Zone read keeper | Forcier | 4 |
I'm betting the reason why Forcier was pulling the ball out all day is that Western was crashing down on the back and matching it with either scrape reads or Rutgers-like corner blitzes. Michigan's counterpunch was adding a third option of a long handoff or bubble screen, which is wide open on this play as the corner is blitzing but Forcier fails to make the throw, instead charging up for a few yards. (BR, N/A, N/A) | |||||||||||
O42 | 2 | 11 | Shotgun Empty | 1 | 1 | 3 | Nickel | Pass | Hitch | Brown | 13 |
They empty the backfield and this is a dead simple hitch to a virtually uncovered Brown that turns into an easy first down. Good recognition from Forcier to find the wide-open dude. (CA, 3, protection 1/1) Note the pace: Michigan gets this play off exactly 16 seconds after the previous one ended. | |||||||||||
O29 | 1 | 10 | I-Form 3-wide | 0 | 2 | 3 | Nickel | Run | Iso | Brown | 0 |
Grady comes in motion for a fake end-around (Kelvin, obviously. I'll use numbers for clarity) as Michigan runs a dive up the middle. Schilling(-1) immediately blows into the second level, leaving a DT mostly unblocked; Ortmann has no angle. This looks like a bust somewhere, because Schilling really needs to get a piece of the DT to help Ortmann out. With that guy in the hole Brown has to dance around aimlessly for no yards. | |||||||||||
O29 | 2 | 10 | Shotgun 2-back | 0 | 2 | 3 | Nickel | Pass | Improv | Hemingway | 28 |
Nice pocket, though it should be nice with Michigan in max pro and Western sending only four. Forcier scrambles up in the pocket, points Hemingway long, and hits him despite moving at an awkward angle; Hemingway makes a nice turn and finishes the play off for a touchdown. Just light years different than last year. (DO, 3, protection 2/2) | |||||||||||
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 7-0, 10 min 1st Q. He throws to people. Also, Moundros was in on the last two plays but hurts his ankle on kickoff coverage and misses the rest of the game. | |||||||||||
Ln | Dn | Ds | O Form | TE | RB | WR | D Form | Type | Play | Player | Yards |
M11 | 1 | 10 | Shotgun 2-back | 0 | 2 | 3 | Nickel | Run | Zone read keeper | Forcier | 3 |
Forcier is again getting suckered in by the backside pursuit and pulling the ball out only to find himself one-on-one with a defender. He's pretty slippery but he's not Denard. I mean, it's good he makes three yards out of this but as I was watching it live it looked like Brown was going to break a big one and then it was like "wait he has no ball." | |||||||||||
M14 | 2 | 7 | Shotgun 3-wide | 1 | 1 | 3 | Nickel | Run | End around | Robinson | 1 |
Robinson is the slot receiver and he gets the end around, which surprises no one. The middle linebacker reads this all the way and since Western correctly funnels it back inside Robinson can do little. I think maybe this is on Ortmann for taking a poor angle out to the MLB? Yeah, on review the direction he's going makes no sense. -1. | |||||||||||
M15 | 3 | 6 | Shotgun 4-wide | 1 | 1 | 3 | Nickel | Pass | Sack | -- | 0 |
Moosman(-2) is just flat beat by an interior pass rush move by the DT, forcing Forcier to scramble up in the pocket and get sacked for a minimal loss. (PR, 0, protection 0/2) | |||||||||||
Drive Notes: Punt, 7-0, 6 min 1st Q. Some limitations on this drive: bad read from Forcier and poor play by the OL. | |||||||||||
Ln | Dn | Ds | O Form | TE | RB | WR | D Form | Type | Play | Player | Yards |
M16 | 1 | 10 | Shotgun trips | 1 | 1 | 3 | Nickel | Run | Zone read keeper | Forcier | 8 |
Same thing with the DE crashing down except the safety is the scrape guy. Forcier manages to juke him and get outside, then get outside the corner and get upfield for eight. Impressive? Dangerous against non-MAC opponents? Both? | |||||||||||
M24 | 2 | 2 | Shotgun trips | 1 | 1 | 3 | Nickel | Run | Zone read handoff | Brown | -2 (Pen -10) |
Ugh; injury to insult as a holding flag comes down. As to the play: a slant from the DE coupled with a CB blitz gets said DE in past Huyge(-1) and finds Brown doubled and tackled in the backfield. This holding is slightly marginal but Molk(-1) did get busted into and wrestled his guy to the ground with his hands outside his shoulders so you can't complain too much. Stuff like this is about the only thing you can complain about from the game. | |||||||||||
M14 | 2 | 12 | Shotgun trips | 1 | 1 | 3 | Nickel | Pass | Bubble counter | S. Grady | Inc |
They will run this a few more times with good success, and I'll grab a highlight of that when it works. [note: apparently they didn't. I'm sure it will come back laster] Michigan sets up what looks like a bubble screen before Grady dives back inside and Forcier hits him; overaggresive Western folk get caught outside. Grady drops it. I guess it was a little high, but not that high. (CA, 3, protection N/A, screen) | |||||||||||
M14 | 3 | 12 | Shotgun 4-wide | 1 | 1 | 3 | Nickel | Pass | Deep seam | Webb | Inc |
WMU rushes four with a linebacker coming at Brown from the outside; Brown upends him with a thumping hip-check of a block, allowing Forcier to hop outside the pocket, load up, and bomb it deep to Webb, but the ball is a couple yards long. (IN, 0, protection 2/2.) Had Hemingway streaking open down the sideline, too. | |||||||||||
Drive Notes: Punt, 7-0, 5 min 1st Q. Robinson gets the next drive. | |||||||||||
Ln | Dn | Ds | O Form | TE | RB | WR | D Form | Type | Play | Player | Yards |
O43 | 1 | 10 | Shotgun 3-wide | 1 | 1 | 3 | Nickel | Penalty | False Start | Many | Pen -5 |
Both Moosman and Huyge move early. | |||||||||||
O48 | 1 | 10 | Shotgun 3-wide | 1 | 1 | 3 | Nickel | Run | Wonder and glory | Robinson | 48 |
You've seen this. Yakety Sax turns into a precious thing forever. Not really worth discussing since it's a broken play but, yes, as everyone's noticed Odoms doesn't give up on the play and levels a linebacker who would have kept this to a five yard gain. Replay. Graphic novel adaptation. (srsly) | |||||||||||
Drive Notes: Space Touchdown, 14-0, 4 min 1st Q. Space. Robinson back in. | |||||||||||
Ln | Dn | Ds | O Form | TE | RB | WR | D Form | Type | Play | Player | Yards |
M32 | 1 | 10 | Shotgun 3-wide | 1 | 1 | 3 | Nickel | Run | QB off tackle | Robinson | 5 |
This is a simple off tackle that seems like it should go for more since it effectively attacks WMU's crash-scrape thing, but Brown peels off on the DE when he should probably head straight for the safety and hope for the best. Brown's cut block isn't that effective and Odoms can't contain the CB, so the pair contain Robinson after a couple of jukes. Still picks up five, not bad. | |||||||||||
M37 | 2 | 5 | Shotgun Empty | 1 | 1 | 3 | Nickel | Pass | Hitch | Grady | 7 |
Simple pitch and catch Robinson knows will be open because the two linebackers are freaking out about the Flash over here. Robinson rifles it pretty high but Grady makes a tough catch and picks up the first. (MA, 2, protection 1/1) | |||||||||||
M44 | 1 | 10 | Shotgun 3-wide | 1 | 1 | 3 | Nickel | Pass | ??? | Hemingway | Inc |
This is a screwup on the part of Robinson. The line is run-blocking, the receivers are run-blocking, and Grady is coming around for a reverse or fake reverse. Robinson pulls up and throws a hitch to Hemingway, who's, as mentioned, run blocking. Michigan probably should have gotten an illegal man downfield on this. (BR, not charted for Hemingway or the line.) | |||||||||||
M44 | 2 | 10 | Shotgun 3-wide | 1 | 1 | 3 | Nickel | Run | QB off tackle | Robinson | 7 |
Grady fake end-around again; I bet this was also the playcall on first down. Koger(+1) and Huyge(+1) double and seal the DE, and then Koger goes and gets a linebacker; Brown pops the corner on the edge and Robinson has a lane. There is a slight delay because the crease isn't big, and this allows Brown's guy to make a shoelace (HA!) tackle as Robinson passes. | |||||||||||
O49 | 3 | 3 | Shotgun 4-wide | 1 | 1 | 3 | Nickel | Run | QB draw | Robinson | 2 |
This doesn't really fool anyone so Robinson would be better served to take off earlier. As it is, Brown gets a great cut block on the LB but Robinson's delayed his move so long that the guy can recover and help tackle along with the guy Molk couldn't get out on because they're sort of expecting this, eh? | |||||||||||
O47 | 4 | 1 | I-Form covered twins | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4-4 bearmonster | Run | Iso | Brown | 6 |
The DE lined up over Koger dives inside, expecting something more up the middle, which allows Ortmann to seal him easily. Koger picks off the crashing safety and Brown gets the first down and a chunk more. | |||||||||||
O41 | 1 | 10 | Shotgun 3-wide | 1 | 1 | 3 | Nickel | Run | Zone read keeper | Forcier | 5 |
Forcier back in. This is a repeat of what we've seen before: DE crashes coupled with an attacking safety, scrape from the LB, Forcier gets on the edge and turns a questionable decision into a few yards. Bubble is wide, wide open again, though it doesn't look like Forcier has that option on this play. | |||||||||||
O36 | 2 | 5 | Shotgun Empty | 1 | 1 | 3 | Nickel | Pass | Hitch | Koger | 5 |
Simple, well executed dink-and-dunk pitch-and-catch. On time. Koger bobbles it but brings it in and fights for the extra yard that gets him the first. (CA, 3, protection 1/1) | |||||||||||
O31 | 1 | 10 | I-Form 3-wide | 0 | 2 | 3 | Nickel | Run | Iso | Brown | 11 |
Grady end-around fake. Good example of zone blocking here as the DT slants inside and Schilling(+1) goes with his motion and shoves him out of the play; Brown reads it and cuts behind him. Molk, who released directly into the second level, gets a block on the MLB and Brown cuts past the OLB and into the secondary, where the safety cuts him down. | |||||||||||
O20 | 1 | 10 | Ace 4-wide | 1 | 1 | 3 | Nickel | Run | End around | Grady | 11 |
They finally hand it off. Crashy defensive end crashes and Koger picks off the OLB's route to Grady. Stonum does some good work on the outside and Grady slithers for a first down. | |||||||||||
O9 | 1 | G | I-Form covered twins | 1 | 2 | 2 | Base 4-3 | Run | Iso | Brown | 1 |
DE again crashes inside of Koger, just as on the fourth down play, but this is less of a quick hitter and actually features a pulling Schilling so the crash inside complicates things. Schilling tries to take him on but has no angle and the guy makes a diving tackle as Brown passes. Not sure if this is poor execution on anyone's part or not. | |||||||||||
O8 | 2 | G | Ace | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4-3 Under | Pass | Waggle TE Cross | Koger | 8 |
All three linebackers bite like whoah, leaving Koger wide open in the back of the endzone; Tate hits him between the numbers. (CA, 3, protection 1//1) Fake helped out by the line's obvious zone blocking. Play looked just like a run play and the linebackers were freaking out before the exchange point was even reached. | |||||||||||
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 21-0, 12 min 2nd Q. That waggle is a blast from the past, eh? | |||||||||||
Ln | Dn | Ds | O Form | TE | RB | WR | D Form | Type | Play | Player | Yards |
O42 | 1 | 10 | Shotgun 3-wide | 1 | 1 | 3 | Nickel | Pass | Throwaway | -- | Inc |
Michigan goes max protect and gets Forcier time but with only three receivers in the pattern and Western on top of each in a three-deep, Forcier just chucks it away. Double moves on the outside got no sale. (TA, 0, protection 2/2) | |||||||||||
O42 | 2 | 10 | Shotgun 3-wide | 1 | 1 | 3 | Nickel | Pass | Zone read bubble | Savoy | 11 |
Robinson in. This isn't really a bubble but it's the same concept: Odoms starts running as if he's going to run block and Savoy runs two steps and then comes back for a potential throw; Robinson keeps it off the zone fake and hits Savoy as the D closes in (CA, 3, protection NA) Savoy uses the space afforded by the attention paid to Robinson and Western's very deep coverage on the outside to pick up the first. | |||||||||||
O31 | 1 | 10 | Shotgun 3-wide | 1 | 1 | 3 | Nickel | Run | Zone read handoff | Shaw | 5 |
The MGolden Boy is having a rough time of it today. On this play Molk(-1) lets his man upfield behind him quickly enough to force a cutback from Shaw that just barely forces him into the backside DT, who Huyge has managed to get on the right side. When Huyge goes down to cut the DT, he lunges over Huyge to grab at Shaw and tackle. Shaw manages to stumble for five. | |||||||||||
O26 | 2 | 5 | Shotgun 4-wide | 1 | 1 | 3 | Nickel | Run | QB lead draw | Robinson | -2 ( Pen -10) |
Blocking poor on this; Schilling(-1) has his guy beat him to the outside a bit, forcing Robinson behind him; the dobule on the other DT does not seal him, resulting in the pulling Koger bashing into the mess and said mess halting Robinson's progress. He bounces off, but just when it looks like he might beat everyone to the corner and do something ridiculous again he loses his balance. Holding flag comes in afterwards, again on Molk(-1). It's not undeserved. | |||||||||||
O36 | 2 | 15 | Shotgun 2-back | 0 | 2 | 3 | Nickel | Pass | Improv comeback | Shaw | Inc |
Forcier in. He drops back and appears to have a wheel to Shaw as his first read; this is blanketed. Stonum's post is also covered and then Ortmann's guy has come around the corner and Forcier has to scramble out. As he's nearing the sideline he rifles one to Shaw, which looks caught but is ruled OOB. (CA+, 2, protection 1/2, Ortmann -1) Actually, Shaw just dropped it. | |||||||||||
O36 | 3 | 15 | Shotgun 4-wide | 1 | 1 | 3 | Dime | Run | QB draw | Forcier | 10 |
Well... WMU was basically asking for this and it does give Michigan a makeable field goal attempt. Given the long shot that is third and fifteen I think it's a defensible call. There's not much to analyze: Michigan takes the ten yards WMU gives them. | |||||||||||
Drive Notes: FG(44), 24-0, 7 min 2nd Q. Olesnavage right down the pipe. Nice. | |||||||||||
Ln | Dn | Ds | O Form | TE | RB | WR | D Form | Type | Play | Player | Yards |
M15 | 1 | 10 | Ace Twins | 2 | 1 | 2 | Base 4-3 | Run | Inside zone | Brown | 11 |
Both DTs are doubled as Brown shoots straight into the middle of the field; Molk and Schilling seal one guy and Moosman(+1) gets a hit that spins the DT around, allowing Huyge to finish him. Moosman then gets a crushing second-level block, and Koger picks off a member of the secondary. Brown zips for a first. | |||||||||||
M26 | 1 | 10 | Shotgun 3-wide | 1 | 1 | 3 | Nickel | Pass | Rollout hitch | Mathews | 11 |
Zone fake with Koger coming across to block again. With two linebackers suckered in by the playfake, Forcier pulls up and calmly hits a wide-open Mathews. (CA, 3, protection 1/1) Poor play by the secondary here. | |||||||||||
M37 | 1 | 10 | Ace Twins | 2 | 1 | 2 | Nickel | Run | Inside zone | Brown | 6 |
Man, the way Western has decided to defend Michigan is just sell out and hope M doesn't call that other play. Here this is pretty well blocked on the backside and Brown would have a huge cutback lane but for the DE, who's sold out to track him down. Ortmann's crushing block(+1) on the DT kicks him down the line and gives Brown enough space to squeeze between Ortmann and the arm-tackling DE; the arm tackle does trip Brown up, but after a decent gain. The flip side of plays like these are plays like the wide open Koger touchdown. | |||||||||||
M43 | 2 | 4 | Shotgun 3-wide | 1 | 1 | 3 | Nickel | Run | QB off tackle | Forcier | -5 |
I don't know what the hell Brown(-1) is thinking here but he runs right past a linebacker who's charging right at Forcier. Forcier attempts to bail by throwing the bubble but the guy's on him too fast and he has to eat the ball. I'm filing this as a run, but the option to throw is here (and is wide open). | |||||||||||
M38 | 3 | 9 | Shotgun 4-wide | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3-3-5 nickel | Pass | Throwback screen | Hemingway | 14 |
Very well set up, with Forcier's flare screen fake to one side freaking out one LB and holding another; Schilling and Molk get out on said LB by the time the ball arrives and crush him. Molk probably should have gone for the safety, but Hemingway makes him miss and rambles for the first down. Note the DT chasing him down from behind and how close he was: Forcier's timing and accuracy here are excellent and key. (CA, 3, protection N/A) | |||||||||||
O48 | 1 | 10 | Shotgun 3-wide | 1 | 1 | 3 | Nickel | Pass | Rollout bomb | Stonum | Inc |
Looks like the QB off tackle but is designed to get the secondary to bite and then spring Stonum deep. They don't bite and Forcier appears to chuck it away. (TA, 0, protection 2/2). He had only one short option and that was covered. Plays like this are why those rollout hitches are so open; Western's secondary is playing way off. | |||||||||||
O48 | 2 | 10 | Shotgun 3-wide | 1 | 1 | 3 | Nickel | Run | QB off tackle | Forcier | 4 |
Crappy read by Forcier on the cut; he can go behind a Koger/Huyge DE double and find plenty of open space with Schilling about to pop the last second level guy but instead tries to head outside with minimal success. | |||||||||||
O44 | 3 | 6 | Shotgun 4-wide | 1 | 1 | 3 | Nickel | Pass | Fly | Hemingway | 44 |
Hemingway gives one little shimmy and is then by; he's got a step, step and a half on the corner. Forcier sees it and lofts a ball that nestles gently between Hemingway's numbers perfectly in stride. You can't throw this better. (DO, 3, protection 2/2) | |||||||||||
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 31-0, 3 min 2nd Q. w00t. | |||||||||||
Ln | Dn | Ds | O Form | TE | RB | WR | D Form | Type | Play | Player | Yards |
M24 | 1 | 10 | Shotgun 3-wide | 1 | 1 | 3 | Nickel | Run | Zone read handoff | Brown | 3 |
Playside DT shoots to the backside of Molk(-1), actually, which appears to surprise him, and then gets playside of Schilling(-1) to disrupt the play and force Brown behind him. Brown(-1) is slowed as he passes the guy and fumbles when a linebacker comes in to hit; Schilling recovers. | |||||||||||
M27 | 2 | 7 | Shotgun Empty | 1 | 1 | 3 | Nickel | Pass | Bubble screen | Odoms | 5 |
This is an excellent play from Odoms, as Webb(-1) takes a poor angle to the corner and lets him outside of him; Odoms has to juke past that and a pursuing DE to pick up decent yardage (CA, 3, screen) | |||||||||||
M32 | 3 | 2 | I-Form covered twins | 2 | 1 | 2 | Base 4-3 | Run | Pitch sweep | Brown | 5 |
I'm grabbing this just for Webb's great block(+1) on the playside DE, which sees the guy driven back three yards and gives Brown the corner. | |||||||||||
M37 | 1 | 10 | Shotgun 4-wide | 1 | 1 | 3 | Nickel | Pass | Dig | Hemingway | 12 |
Bubble screen fake sucks the corner up and Hemingway ends up in cavernous space between that guy and the cover-three back line. Forcier throws it a tiny bit behind and Hemingway juggles it but does bring it in. (CA, 3, protection 1/1) Hemingway limps off. | |||||||||||
M49 | 1 | 10 | Shotgun 4-wide | 1 | 1 | 3 | Nickel | Run | Zone read handoff | Brown | 7 |
This is an outside zone and perhaps the first I've seen actually get outside the tackle as Molk(+1) and Ortmann(+1) seal the playside DT and DE, leaving Webb and Schilling to the two linebackers. Webb(-1) basically whiffs; Schilling is free to take on the same guy but stumbled coming through the line and is a bit late, which slows Brown enough for help to converge. If Webb gets that block Brown has the safety to beat for six. | |||||||||||
O44 | 2 | 3 | Shotgun 3-wide | 1 | 1 | 3 | Nickel | Pass | QB off tackle to long handoff | Mathews | 8 |
The QB off tackle we've seen several times today; this time Forcier's first read is the throw. He hits a wide open Mathews, who picks up the first. Nice block from Odoms. (CA, 3, protection N/A) | |||||||||||
O36 | 1 | 10 | Shotgun 3-wide | 1 | 1 | 3 | Nickel | Run | Zone read handoff | Shaw | 7 |
Webb deployed as an H-back and used as a lead blocker. Frontside scoop block by Molk and Moosman works okay but the DT comes around Molk to dive at Shaw's ankles; Shaw comes through that. Slowed, though, Shaw is caught from behind by the crashing DE as he passes the line of scrimmage, dragging him forward for a good, but not explosive, gain. | |||||||||||
O29 | 2 | 3 | Shotgun 3-wide | 1 | 1 | 3 | Nickel | Pass | Rollout deep out | Savoy | Inc |
Zone read fake with Koger pulling across the formation. Previously, he's blocked. This time he runs into a short flat route that's pretty well covered. Forcier's second read is Savoy on a deep out, and that's open, but he can't quite get it off in time, getting hit and throwing the ball off target. Tough to chart this... I'll go with (PR, 0, N/A) | |||||||||||
O29 | 3 | 3 | Shotgun 4-wide | 1 | 1 | 3 | Nickel | Run | QB lead draw | Forcier | 2 |
This is on Forcier(-1), who should just follow Brown's butt straight upfield but instead tries to pop outside and gets stopped short. Forcier comes out because he loses a shoe. | |||||||||||
O27 | 4 | 1 | I-Form covered twins | 2 | 1 | 2 | Base 4-3 | Run | Iso | Shaw | 2 |
Crease opens up between Schilling and Ortmann thanks to a very good block by Schilling(+1), but Grady-24(-1) whiffs on the LB, forcing Shaw to leap him and allowing another LB to close, fortunately after he got a half-yard past the sticks. | |||||||||||
O25 | 1 | 10 | Shotgun 2-back | 2 | 0 | 3 | Nickel | Run | Zone read handoff | Shaw | 12 |
Big hole outside the tackles as the playside DT basically drives himself into the ground with an assist from Molk(+1) and the DE finds himself scooped by Huyge(+1) and Moosman(+1) very effectively. Grady-24 pops the corner and though Huyge whiffed on the LB, the delay is enough for Shaw to run through the tackle attempt. Good downfield block from Stonum has Shaw set up to cut behind and jet for the endzone when the corner makes a diving shoestring tackle. | |||||||||||
O13 | 1 | 10 | Shotgun 3-wide | 1 | 1 | 3 | Nickel | Run | Zone read keeper | Sheridan | 13 (Pen -10) |
The called-back touchdown. For the first time all game Western isn't scraping but the DE didn't get the memo and crashes; Sheridan pulls it out and cuts his way to the endzone. Play called back for holding... which is BS. Other ones were legit, this one not so much. | |||||||||||
O23 | 1 | 20 | Shotgun 4-wide | 1 | 1 | 3 | Nickel | Pass | Throwaway | Mathews | Inc |
Pump intended double move doesn't get Mathews open, so Sheridan gets rid of it. (TA, 0, protection 2/2) | |||||||||||
O23 | 2 | 20 | Shotgun 2-back | 2 | 0 | 3 | Nickel | Run | Zone read keeper | Sheridan | 4 |
WMU is scraping this time and you can do that pretty well when the QB is Nick Sheridan… unless you're Western. Guy actually misses a tackle, giving up four. | |||||||||||
O19 | 3 | 16 | Shotgun 3-wide | 1 | 1 | 3 | Nickel | Pass | Post | Mathews | Int |
The difference between Sheridan and Tate: this time Sheridan scrambles out of the pocket to buy some time after his first read is covered, finds Mathews sort of open, and throws it directly to him, where the ball is undercut and intercepted. Lofted to the back of the endzone this had a chance. Chucked directly to him... no. (BR, 0, protection 2/2) | |||||||||||
Drive Notes: Interception, 31-0, 9 min 3rd Q. Forcier returns for the next drive. | |||||||||||
Ln | Dn | Ds | O Form | TE | RB | WR | D Form | Type | Play | Player | Yards |
M18 | 1 | 10 | Shotgun 2-back | 2 | 0 | 3 | Nickel | Pass | Zone read bubble | Grady(19) | 6 |
Don't think this is a read as the run fake is half-hearted. Corner here that Stonum's trying to block is more aware of this possibility and evades Stonum to the outside, forcing Grady back inside. He dances effectively for good yardage. (CA, 3, screen) | |||||||||||
M24 | 2 | 4 | Shotgun 2-back | 2 | 0 | 3 | Nickel | Run | Zone read keeper | Forcier | 1 |
This might not be a read, either, as Grady shoots backside to pick off the crashing DE. He's crashed too far for there to be a hole, and Forcier has to bounce it outside into the scrape linebacker. This time he can't evade him. | |||||||||||
M25 | 3 | 3 | Shotgun 2-back | 2 | 0 | 3 | Nickel | Pass | Rollout out | Grady(19) | Inc |
Grady's running slightly open for the first down, but Forcier puts it wide. He's human. (IN, 0, protection 1/1) | |||||||||||
Drive Notes: Punt, 31-0, 1 min 3rd Q. By my reckoning that's the first non-bomb that's been inaccurate without reason. | |||||||||||
Ln | Dn | Ds | O Form | TE | RB | WR | D Form | Type | Play | Player | Yards |
M34 | 1 | 10 | Shotgun 3-wide | 1 | 1 | 3 | Nickel | Run | QB lead draw | Robinson | 9 |
Robinson. Seems an obvious playcall with FB Grady in to block the lead. Michigan blocks down, taking out the MLB and the DT without problems, and Grady(+1) picks off the DE, springing Robinson through the line. A safety attacking absorbs the pulling guard, allowing an unblocked linebacker to tackle. | |||||||||||
M43 | 2 | 1 | Shotgun 4-wide | 1 | 1 | 3 | Nickel | Run | QB lead draw | Robinson | 9 |
Similar play, though on this one they use Ortmann to kick out the DE and shoot Grady into the MLB. Good seal block from Moosman to create a pretty big gap. | |||||||||||
O48 | 1 | 10 | Shotgun 3-wide | 1 | 1 | 3 | Nickel | Run | QB off tackle | Robinson | -8 |
Webb(-2) is beaten badly to the outside, almost holds, and still lets his guy upfield fast enough that Robinson can't do anything about it and gets tackled by the feet. They were running the Grady end-around fake. | |||||||||||
M44 | 2 | 18 | Shotgun 4-wide | 1 | 1 | 3 | Nickel | Run | QB lead draw | Robinson | 3 |
Okay, they're just killing clock now. DL are looking for this and peeling back off the pass blocking. | |||||||||||
M47 | 3 | 15 | Shotgun 3-wide | 1 | 1 | 3 | Nickel | Pass | Fly | Mathews | Inc |
There is a window between the corner, who drops off a few yards short of the first, and the safety coming over the top, but Robinson is late and throws a deeper ball that the safety gets over on and breaks up. (IN, 1, protection 2/2) | |||||||||||
Drive Notes: Punt, 31-0, 12 min 4th Q. | |||||||||||
Ln | Dn | Ds | O Form | TE | RB | WR | D Form | Type | Play | Player | Yards |
M29 | 1 | 10 | Shotgun 2-back | 2 | 0 | 3 | Nickel | Run | Zone read handoff | Smith | 1 |
Robinson on this drive too. Man, Molk(-1) having a rough time of it, allowing his guy to shoot around him quickly, which disrupt the attempted backside cut and cuts off Moosman. The guy Molk lost delays Smith and the guy Huyge couldn't cut tackles for no gain. | |||||||||||
M30 | 2 | 9 | Shotgun 2-back | 2 | 0 | 3 | Nickel | Pass | Sack | -- | Inc |
Robinson had a guy to throw to, IIRC my perception of the play from the stands, but instead attempts to take off when there's nowhere to run and does not get back to the LOS. (BR, 0, protection 1/1) | |||||||||||
M29 | 3 | 10 | Shotgun 4-wide | 1 | 1 | 3 | Nickel | Run | QB draw | Robinson | 5 |
Okay, whatever. | |||||||||||
Drive Notes: Punt, 31-7, 8 min 4th Q. | |||||||||||
Ln | Dn | Ds | O Form | TE | RB | WR | D Form | Type | Play | Player | Yards |
M34 | 1 | 10 | Ace | 1 | 2 | 2 | Base 4-3 | Run | Inside zone | Smith | 6 |
Forcier. Here a double from Molk and Moosman does drive the DT back; Ortmann kicks out the DE and there's a crease. Moosman gets a helmet on a LB and Smith shoots up for good yardage before a peeling corner tracks him down. | |||||||||||
M40 | 2 | 4 | I-Form covered twins | 2 | 1 | 2 | Base 4-3 | Run | Off tackle | Smith | 4 |
Pulling guards show up again... Michigan's going to add this sort of thing to its playlist this year, I guess. Line blocks down and cuts of the DTs and Grady hits the DE along with the guard; crushing blocking from Huyge and Schilling has opened up a crease up the middle that Smith darts into, ending up inches short. | |||||||||||
M44 | 3 | In | I-Form covered twins | 2 | 1 | 2 | Base 4-3 | Run | Iso | Smith | 4 |
Crunching block from Grady gets Smith the first. Good seal from Moosman. | |||||||||||
M48 | 1 | 10 | Ace Twins | 1 | 2 | 2 | Base 4-3 | Run | Inside zone | Smith | 2 |
Schilling and Molk get pushed back a bit by the DT, forcing a Smith cutback into dudes. | |||||||||||
50 | 2 | 8 | I-Form covered twins | 2 | 1 | 2 | Base 4-3 | Run | Pitch sweep | Smith | 5 |
Good seal by Huyge(+1) on the DE on the edge, so this opens up pretty well. Schilling just sort of runs by the backside LB, who Moosman can't get out to, and he gets a dive at Smith, forcing him into the guy Stokes is blocking and slowing his progresss; he bounces out for a few more. | |||||||||||
O45 | 3 | 3 | Ace | 1 | 2 | 2 | Base 4-3 | Run | Inside zone | Grady(24) | 3 |
Grady cuts back, plowing into and through Huyge, who's let his man inside of him and lets just get to the main event, okay? | |||||||||||
O42 | 1 | 10 | Ace | 1 | 2 | 2 | Base 4-3 | Pass | Waggle cross | Koger! | 20 |
WOO HA! (MA, 1, protection 1/1) | |||||||||||
Drive Notes: Yes, there's a rest of this drive but you and I know there's only one reason I was charting it. Turnover on Downs, 31-7, EOG. One note: production in this game was really great. They missed the beginning of a play or two but were very prompt with replays and on top of their stuff. Thumbs up. |
I think I remember this, but what is it called?
Ah yes. I suppose there are charts?
Quarterbacks of all descriptions (Hennechart again; MA is "marginal"):
Opponent | DO | CA | MA | IN | BR | TA | BA | PR |
Western Michigan | 2 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | - | 3 |
Opponent | DO | CA | MA | IN | BR | TA | BA | PR |
Western Michigan | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | - | - | - |
Opponent | DO | CA | MA | IN | BR | TA | BA | PR |
Western Michigan | - | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | - | - |
Robinson and Sheridan obviously didn't do much throwing. I have Forcier down for five screens, all catchable, which leaves his downfield success rate (DO + CA / DO + CA + IN + BR + TA + PR) at 58%. That's not Chad Henne at his apex but it's far, far better than the average performance last year and also far better than Ryan Mallett's debut.
And as far as Forcier equaling accuracy go: two incompletions were throwaways, two were drops, and one was pressure-induced. The only throws on which Forcier was inaccurate were
- a long bomb to Webb after rolling out of the pocket that probably would have been complete if it wasn't thrown to a TE,
- an out to Kelvin Grady that was wide, and
- the Koger circus catch.
That is stupid. Forcier has a bunch of issues with reading defenses and having patience and dealing with scrape exchanges and etc etc etc but hot holy damn, man. Everything we were led to believe about Forcier's accuracy is true after one game.
Also note that all five screens were filed CA, and none were remotely close to anything else. That's a huge leap from last year, when Threet actually threw one backwards in the Notre Dame game and was hugely erratic much of the rest of the year. It's sad that we're talking about screens as a huge leap forward, but it's sad about the past so ooookay.
(remember: 0 is uncatchable, 1 is a circus catch, 2 is a somewhat difficult one, and 3 is a routine one)
This Game | Totals | ||||||||
Player | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | |
Hemingway | - | - | - | 4/4 | - | - | - | 4/4 | |
Mathews | 2 | - | - | 2/2 | 2 | - | - | 2/2 | |
Stonum | 1 | - | - | - | 1 | - | - | ||
Savoy | 1 | - | - | 1/1 | 1 | - | - | - | |
Odoms | - | - | - | 2/2 | - | - | - | 2/2 | |
Grady-19 | 1 | - | 1/1 | 1/2 | 1 | - | 1/1 | 1/2 | |
Roundtree | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
Rogers | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
Koger | - | 1/1 | - | 2/2 | - | 1/1 | - | 2/2 | |
Webb | 1 | - | - | - | 1 | - | - | - | |
Minor | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
Brown | - | - | - | 1/1 | - | - | - | 1/1 | |
Shaw | - | - | 0/1 | - | - | - | 0/1 | - | |
Smith | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
Moundros | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Only one straight drop, that from Kelvin Grady on his first catch opportunity in three years, and then there was, of course, Koger's circus catch. Items that jump out to me: look at the distribution. 11 players were targeted in one game. And look at the large reduction in 0s and 1s. Last year there were 28 opportunities to make a circus catch; Michigan is on pace for 12 this year.
and PROTECTION CHART: 22/25, Moosman –2, Ortmann –1.
Michigan spent the game in a lot of rollouts, holding these numbers down. Good performance overall.
What about that Odoms call?
I'm pretty sure it was wrong. There's even a call-out in the rule book for that specific situation:
A30, lined up legally as a back, starts in motion legally. He then turns
so that he still is legally in motion but is facing his line of scrimmage
using a "side-step" motion. At the snap, A30 is bent slightly forward
at the waist and is either continuing his "side-step" motion or is
"marking time" in place. RULING: Legal.
Odoms had definitely not taken more than a step or two and was not moving towards the line of scrimmage; at that point he hadn't even turned his shoulders upfield. I think the ref was anticipating forward movement instead of seeing it.
Anything particularly worrying?
Michigan's zone stretch game kind of stank, didn't it? Michigan picked up numerous holding calls, never broke a long run (in the framework of the offense), and had more success on quarterback runs or straight ace or I-form pounding. From under center Michigan ran 13 times for 62 yards before charting ceased, which is 4.8 YPC. Tailbacks from the shotgun had 13 carries for… uh… 61 yards. Wait. Nevermind.
Okay, you should still give an advantage to under center because five of those carries came at the end of the game when Michigan was just pounding the clock out and three others were short-yardage situations. Also, Moundros missed most of the game and when he returns you figure he's best at isos and whatnot.
In any case, 4.8 YPC against a MAC opponent isn't stellar.
Is there anything in what WMU did that future opponents can emulate?
I think they do so at their peril. As discussed in an earlier mailbag, WMU was shooting the DE down the line and having a scraper deal with the quarterback. This guy was the WLB or a corner, and the scrape opened up a lot of those holes on the outside that Michigan exploited with the zone-keep-to-screen series; it would have been worse if Michigan was used to the read, because there were three or four times that Michigan didn't chuck it to the WR where he was wide open. When Minor returns, Michigan loves that quick backside veer play, possibly with a pulling h-back or Moundros—that hits so quickly the DE can't do anything about it except watch the tailback shoot into the hole the scraper is vacating. Michigan clearly spent a chunk of the offseason devising counters to the scrape, all of which they put away once the score got out of hand.
Pick a quarterback, and Junior Hemingway was the first amongst equals at wide receiver.
David Molk picked up two deserved holding flags and had numerous instances where Western's small, nimble defensive line hopped past him to disrupt plays. The rest of the OL also gets some mild disapproval.
What does it mean for Notre Dame?
The thing that leapt out during the Nevada game was a play on which two Nevada OLs double-teamed Ethan Johnson and deposited him somewhere around the first-down marker. Johnson's a DT who looks like a tight end, a hyped recruit who appears to be playing badly out of position. Unfortunately, this could be an advantage against Michigan since agile guys who can get down the line can fare better than your conventional pocket-crushing DT sorts. Meanwhile, NT Ian Williams is thoroughly mediocre, blown out time and again by Nevada and a primary reason Michigan was finding acres of space during last year's monsoon. He's not real mobile.
If both of those guys had the same flaws it would be easy. Finding a recipe that works against those two… well, it's probably ram it down their throat a lot. Nevada had good success doing that with their slow WAC backs throughout the game. Putting Johnson on skates and having faith that the backside can contain Williams with a candy bar seems advisable, and Michigan should have an opportunity to break several big gainers what with TAH-NOO-TAA going blitz mad in game one. Last time a TAH-NOO-TAA defense ran up against the spread 'n' shred things worked out all right:
(This video comes with a HORRIBLE MUSIC WARNING.) West Virginia put up 440 yards of offense and 38 points in a three-point win against a team that gave up 17 PPG to all other opponents. So… yeah, there will be the potential for explosive plays.
As far as the passing game goes, well… with all the blitzing Michigan will deploy a bunch of screens of all varieties; I'm looking for that bubble counter that Kelvin Grady dropped to make a potentially lethal return. Michigan will roll the pocket a ton, reducing the effectiveness of some blitzes and requiring Forcier to throw before his head gets taken off on others.
Unverified Voracity Punches Dolphins
Tate! The people have spoken and MGoUnderground has listened. The Tate shirt is available for purchase.
If you're interested in the details, Enjoy Life pretty much liveblogged his shirt purchase and washing. Everything is AWESOME. He cannot BELIEVE what a deal he got. CONSUME.
I really hope this is just random. If this sign is just random, it's funny. If it's an obscure sexual act—and these days punching BLANK almost always is—it's not:
There is, unfortunately, an Urban Dictionary entry for "Dolphin Punch" but there's only one and it seems obscure enough that unless it's this particularly house/frat that initiated the term they're literally talking about punching dolphins, which I approve of as a ridiculous fashion via which to express your disapproval. [Update: the house had a sign featuring a fist punching an incredulous dolphin, so it was literal. Good work, BOX.] Multiple emailers have mentioned that Drew Sharp—freshly returned to the local airwaves hoorah—spent a lot of time on WDFN the other day bemoaning this sign and others along the various frats and apartment buildings en route to the stadium. An emailer:
Drew Sharp was going on about how there were some "reprehensible" signs that he saw on the way to the game regarding Rosenberg. He said that he talked to unnamed "U-M officials", and was told that the Freep needs to understand that emotions get high when they write on a sensitive subject, and that their inaction was the first time that Sharp was embarrassed by his degree, blah, blah, blah, won't someone think of the children.
…So, I called in. I asked him and Matt Shepard where the signs were. Sharp hemmed and hawed, and it turned out that unsurprisingly, they were on private property (although one of them "might have been on campus"). They hung up on me before I could blast Sharp for what he is, but Jesus. No wonder the print media is dying- this isn't rocket science. Hell, even Shepard understood the First Amendment.
How is it that this man has a job that doesn't involve scrubbing something, but nothing too important?
While we're on the subject of, well, you know, Jay Bilas' latest insider piece argues along these lines:
If the allegations concerning Michigan are true, which would assume that the players making the allegations had a full understanding of what constituted countable and non-countable hours and what constituted voluntary and mandatory workouts, then Michigan is guilty of working too hard on football.
Which is nothing anyone hasn't heard—probably dozens of times—in the last two weeks. But Bilas has toned down the Amaker stuff after the Manny Harris elbow overreaction and remains one of the best analysts (alternatives: Vitale) in college basketball. Maybe Michigan fans can take him off the Enemies List?
And hey guess what now it's time to talk about Notre Dame. What the hell is Charlie Weis 1) talking about and 2) attempting to imply by this:
When Weis was looking at Michigan quarterback Tate Forcier, he said he couldn't keep track of him because he said he bounced to four high schools in four years.
Forcier transferred from his original high school to Scripps Ranch after his freshman year, and then, you know, played at Scripps Ranch the next three years. Our source on this: Tate Forcier and his interview with Tom for Hail To The Victors 2009. Our hobo quarterback needs to grow a beard and get on the tracks, man, before all the other hobos laugh at him when he says he hasn't been to El Paso.
HOBO #1: You've got to go to El Paso.
FORCIER: I keep hearing that but I've never been. I mostly stick around Scripps Ranch High School because I'm the quarterback there.
HOBO #2: LOL wait till I tell Weis the exact opposite of this.
HOBO #1: Word. I remember our days at Our Lady. Remember what it was like to consider the vague possibility of touching a woman, even if she was the metaphorical embodiment of a religion and not actually, you know, a person?
HOBO #2: No.
HOBO #1: No, me neither.
FORCIER: Yeah… how about that. I'm going to take off, I have to go throw some ridiculously accurate passes. [leaves]
HOBO #1: 40 year mistake, that guy.
Hobo #1 revealed! It's Tommy Kilborn, sometime EDSBS guest columnist:
I certainly respect what the Nevada Wolfpack did, but they just couldn't hope to keep up with the brilliant scheming by Charlie Weis and his offensive staff. The energy in the stadium was unreal! I saw several alums even stand during plays because they were so excited, though they did sit down quickly and courteously when the ushers came along to settle things down. You can't blame them, ushers: Charlie Weis football in its full glory has that effect on people.
As always, Kilborn is a brilliant non-parody of Notre Dame fans. NDNation is going to look at you very sternly, Orson.
Speakin' of the hobo. Guy seems to have a good grasp of both train routes and defenses:
Mmmm talky QB porn. Also Rotel ad. I don't think I've ever even seen Rotel available in local supermarkets, but buy anyway. HOBO QB DIRECTS YOU TO.
Etc.: There is now a blog dedicated to Microsoft Paint as it relates to Michigan football. As you might expect, it is spectacular. Future expansion was part of the Michigan Stadium renovation plans. Mustaches for Michigan came off.
Wednesday Presser/Practice Notes
- Brandon Minor has been limited in practice, but he's been participating more than he did last week. From my personal e-observations, he was wearing a normal jersey, not a green (limited contact) one.
- Rodriguez didn't mention other injury news, but I did not see Junior Hemingway participate in the one drill I watched the wideouts do. It's highly possible I just missed him.
- There are no set plans for the QB rotation this week, other than Tate starting. They'll try to get Denard and Nick in there as well.
- On Notre Dame, Rodriguez said he thinks Clausen is a good QB - and thought the same last year as well. The Irish will try to beat you deep, and mix in a bunch of play action as well. They have a couple good deep threats and the secondary will need to be ready. Speaking of which, he was asked about the Donovan Warren penalties against Western. He couldn't explicitly say so, but it definitely seemed like he thought one of them was BS. Still, he wants the corners to be aggressive.
- Rodriguez felt turnovers cost the team the game last year (which, duh). If the team loses on Saturday, he wants it to be because Notre Dame was just the better team: "I don't want Michigan beating Michigan."
- Craig Roh's intelligence (he's a 4.0 student) has helped him be ready to compete at this level in just over three weeks. He has a high motor and intensity, and loves football. He came into the program very technically sound because he got good coaching in high school, and learned a lot by going to camps.
- Stevie Brown's move to linebacker has been a success. They moved him because they thought he'd be a good fit at the position, especially when the team plays against spread offenses. It gives the defense flexibility without subbing. There's more of a speed emphasis on defense, and there's been a national trend towards always having a nickel-type package on the field.
- An interesting question was asked about how Tate will respond in a game the first time he makes a big mistake (which he didn't do in the spring game or against Western). Rodriguez said he's not worried, because Tate is hard on himself after every mistake in practice, and tries to understand what he did wrong, and why it was wrong to learn for the future.
- Tate wasn't having his most accurate day throwing the ball, so hopefully that will be worked out by Saturday.
Upon Further Review: Defense vs Western Michigan
What in the hell is this? It's "Upon Further Review," MGoBlog's comprehensive, numbers-heavy breakdown of Michigan's previous game. It takes until Wednesday/Thursday because it's a lot of work.
A note on video: changes to the torrent format killed the thing I'd been using to cut clips out, unfortunately, and I haven't found a solution yet. I'm really trying to get this squared away and will add them to the post as soon as possible. For now, no video.
UPDATE! Video good to go thanks to askarpo.
A note before we start: attempted to assimilate the offseason knowledge I picked up about over, under, and 30 fronts and actually pick out which shift Michigan was in before every play. This did not go well, so take the below with something of a grain of salt. I do think I got the "Base 4-3" right but I was marking 30 fronts—two gap fronts akin to an NFL 3-4—4-3 under fronts most of the game. And I'm still a little hazy. This, I believe, is the 4-3 under we've talked about all offseason:
Roh is a stand-up guy outside the weakside tackle. RVB is in a 3 technique over the weakside guard. Martin is the NT, shaded slightly to the strongside of the center (a 1-tech). And Graham is in a 7 outside the strongside tackle. The linebackers have shifted to the strongside.
This is basically the same thing with Roh's hand in the dirt against an I-form tight formation; Michigan brings Mike Williams up for an eight-man front on short yardage:
And this is the under again against a balanced formation; you can see that Graham has taken a considerably more outside stance and the guard is "bubbled" over Ezeh, which means he can just run out and block him:
As for platooning: there was none. Michigan spent the entire game in a 4-3 if you count Roh a DE and Brown a safety. If you want to call it a 3.5-3-4.5 I wouldn't look at you funny. At least, not too funny. They did rotate in backups on the defensive line after the first few drives.
Ln | Dn | Ds | O Form | D Form | Type | Play | Player | Yards |
O17 | 1 | 10 | Shotgun Empty | Base 4-3 | Pass | Hitch | Graham | 3 |
Wow. Mike Patrick in HD. Wow. Anyway: Graham starts off with a bang, blowing through the RT and hitting Hiller as he throws. (+1, pressure +1.) Ball is accurate but a short dumpoff that Ezeh and company snuff out after a short gain. (Cover +1, Ezeh +0.5) | ||||||||
O20 | 2 | 7 | Ace Unbalanced | 4-3 Under | Run | Dive | Roh | 3 |
Roh(+1), in a two-point stance as Michigan moves to an under look, attacks the RT. RT doesn't look like he's attempting to block Roh, as the play is supposed to go up the middle. This is a mistake: Roh gets underneath the guy and blasts him back into the ballcarrier as he passes. An unblocked Ezeh—no Broncos got off their doubles—cleans up. Michigan was in a pure eight-man front here, BTW, with a blitz off the edge from Williams absorbing a pulling TE. Would like Ezeh to be a little more proactive here and shut this down closer to the LOS. | ||||||||
O22 | 3 | 5 | Ace 3-wide | Base 4-3 | Pass | Out | Brown | Inc |
Quick out intended to exploit Brown in man coverage; Graham(+0.5) busts through the line a bit but it shouldn't be enough to throw off Hiller. Ball is wide of the receiver and dropped. Brown(+1, cover +1) was close enough so that a catch was unlikely to pick up the first down anyway. | ||||||||
Drive Notes: Punt, 0-0, 13 min 1st Q. The payoff of switching from Thompson to Brown at SLB is immediately apparent. | ||||||||
Ln | Dn | Ds | O Form | D Form | Type | Play | Player | Yards |
O33 | 1 | 10 | Shotgun 3-wide | Base 4-3 | Pass | Hitch | Cissoko | 6 |
Quick hitch against Cissoko, who backed out before the snap and wasn't in position to defend this. Immediate tackle, FWIW, assisted by Mouton. No cover +/-. | ||||||||
O39 | 2 | 4 | Shotgun 4-wide | Base 4-3 | Run | Inside zone | RVB | 4 |
An attempt to plow up the middle sees RVB doubled and blown back a couple yards. Martin holds the POA pretty decently and Roh fights to hold the space down but RVB's loss of ground allows a guy to get to Ezeh's knees. RVB fights through the double to tackle two yards downfield; the RB falls forward for the first. I think maybe a -0.5 to RVB. | ||||||||
O43 | 1 | 10 | Ace trips | 4-3 Under | Run | Zone left | Graham | 2 |
Initially an I-form with a WR at FB; he motions out. Woo Debord-level deception. Graham(+1) blows the playside guard back, which forces a cutback into Mike Martin(+0.5), who avoided a cut and is the first of three or four tacklers. | ||||||||
O45 | 2 | 8 | I-form 3-wide | 4-3 Under | Pass | Throwaway | Brown | Inc |
Western goes max pro as Michigan blitzes, which could be bad. But Cissoko(+1) is jamming his man all the way downfield, Brown(+1) has read this guy's crossing route and is running it for him, and Hiller has nowhere to go when the pressure, stymied initially(-1), gets through. He chucks it away. (Cover +2) | ||||||||
O45 | 3 | 8 | Shotgun 3-wide | Base 4-3 | Pass | Fly | Graham | Inc |
Graham(+2) zips right around the right tackle and deposits his face in Hiller's chest just as he releases a ball he shouldn't throw. The pass is a skyward duck that somehow manages to find turf. (Pressure +2) Also watch Roh(+1) set the left tackle up inside and then pwn him with a spin move to get free. If Graham wasn't eating the right tackle's baby this would be his pressure. | ||||||||
Drive Notes: Punt, 7-0, 8 min 1st Q. There are many good plays happening here. On next drive Herron in for Roh, Banks in for RVB. | ||||||||
Ln | Dn | Ds | O Form | D Form | Type | Play | Player | Yards |
O40 | 1 | 10 | Shotgun 2-back | 4-3 Under | Pass | Fly | Warren | Inc |
Williams rolled up on the short side as Brown takes the slot. Hiller drops back and attempts to bomb it deep; Warren(+1, cover +1) has position and gets a bump before the ball is in the air, disrupting the pattern. | ||||||||
O40 | 2 | 10 | Wildcat | Base 4-3 | Run | Zone read fake counter | Mouton? | 6 |
Wildcat play with a tailback at QB; Michigan responds by pulling Williams to the LOS for another man in the box. This play sees two players pull to the opposite site of a zone read fake. The QB pulls the ball out of the RB's belly and runs a counter, using the RB as a lead blocker. I'm not exactly sure what the responsibilities are here but: 1) I think Herron correctly cuts off the guard and bounces the play outside of him. I think Williams does okay to get outside; I think Mouton's over aggressive, and I know Ezeh(-1) is hesitant and blocked out of the play. It's only a desperation tackle from Herron that keeps this down; Ezeh was done. | ||||||||
O46 | 3 | 4 | Shotgun 4-wide | 4-3 Under | Pass | Slant | Warren | Inc |
Hiller rifles it high and too hot for Nunez. Warren was in good position to make a tackle and make this a tough catch no matter what, but this is probably a first down if thrown better. No cover +/-. | ||||||||
Drive Notes: Punt, 7-0, 5 min 1st Q. Warren in people's shirts and it will continue, to effects both good and bad. | ||||||||
Ln | Dn | Ds | O Form | D Form | Type | Play | Player | Yards |
O42 | 1 | 10 | Shotgun 4-wide | Base 4-3 | Pass | Dumpoff | -- | 5 |
Four man rush gets nowhere against five blockers (pressure -2) and Hiller's given time to survey. With no one open (cover +1) he checks down. | ||||||||
O47 | 2 | 5 | Ace | Base 4-3 | Pass | Hitch | Warren | Inc |
Simple five yard hitch open in front of sort of soft coverage from M; Warren comes up to belt just as the ball arrives, aided by the fact that Hiller's pass is a bit in front of the WR and leaves him out to dry. Warren(+1) has jarred the ball loose with his thumping hit. | ||||||||
O47 | 3 | 5 | Shotgun Empty | 3-3-5-ish | Penalty | False Start | -- | Pen -5 |
FWIW: Roh's been pulled off the line on this play and deployed as a Crable-esque freelance wreaker of havoc. He drops off into a short zone on this play. Which doesn't count. | ||||||||
O42 | 3 | 10 | Shotgun 4-wide | 3-3-5-ish | Pass | Comeback | Cissoko | Int |
Michigan does the same thing, providing an accursed three-man rush. It works, though, as Hiller is forced to check down (cover +1) to a guy running a comeback with no chance at the first down because Brown(+1) has gotten a great drop. Hiller's throw is off and the ball deflect to Cissoko(+1), who intercepts. | ||||||||
Drive Notes: Interception, 7-0, 4 min 1st Q. | ||||||||
Ln | Dn | Ds | O Form | D Form | Type | Play | Player | Yards |
O27 | 1 | 10 | I-Form Tight | Base 4-3 | Run | Off tackle | Ezeh | 3 |
This is a little better from Ezeh(+1), as he dodges one blocker and then gets inside of another one, disengaging to tackle after a few yards. Roh(-1) had given up the edge, shooting inside for pressure that was irresponsible and yielding the gap that turned Ezeh's good play into damage mitigation. | ||||||||
O30 | 2 | 7 | I-form 3-wide | 4-3 Under | Run | Draw | Roh | -4 |
All right, so this time Roh does basically the exact same thing, only this time he's crushed the right tackle and single-handedly blown up a draw play. +2; results-based charting service. Note that Van Bergen(+1) had also beaten his guy and would have crushed this a little less forcefully if Roh hadn't done it first. | ||||||||
O26 | 3 | 11 | Shotgun Empty | 3-3-5-ish | Pass | Hitch | Graham | Inc |
This is another three-man rush where Roh drops off into coverage; this time Graham(+2) again obliterates the RT and is in immediately, hitting Hiller as he throws and forcing a one-hopped throw to a guy who was going to get three yards anyway. (Pressure +2) | ||||||||
Drive Notes: Punt, 14-0, 2 min 1st Q. | ||||||||
Ln | Dn | Ds | O Form | D Form | Type | Play | Player | Yards |
O29 | 1 | 10 | I-Form Tight | 4-3 Under | Run | Iso | Ezeh | 7 (Pen -5) |
Not a good situation from M from the snap as the Broncos have overloaded the wide side with two TEs and a FB and just run right at Stevie Brown and... uh... walk-on Will Heininger. Heininger(-1) gets swallowed by a double; Ezeh(-1) "catches" a block in the words of Steve Sharik, and it's up to Woolfolk to come up and tackle after a seven-yard gain. Play comes back for illegal formation. | ||||||||
O24 | 1 | 15 | Shotgun trips | Base 4-3 | Pass | Yakety Sax | -- | -14 |
Supposed to be a screen but Hiller pulls a Threet with it, losing the ball backwards for no particular reason and suffering a huge loss. | ||||||||
O10 | 2 | 29 | Ace 3-wide | Base 4-3 | Pass | Hitch | Cissoko | 6 |
Okay, yeah, whatever. No problem with soft coverage on second and twenty nine. Cissoko makes a solid tackle. | ||||||||
O16 | 3 | 23 | Shotgun trips | 3-3-5-ish | Pass | Jailbreak screen | Ezeh | -1 |
Ezeh(+2) recognizes quickly, slashes past his supposed blocker before he can get out, and tackles immediately. (Cpver +1) | ||||||||
Drive Notes: Punt, 21-0, 10 min 2nd Q. This was just Western shooting itself in the foot. | ||||||||
Ln | Dn | Ds | O Form | D Form | Type | Play | Player | Yards |
O26 | 1 | 10 | ??? | ??? | Pass | Rollout out | Cissoko | Inc |
We don't get the start of the play because of a sideline reporter. When we come back, Hiller is rolling out. He pumps, then throws to a WR running an out that Cissoko(+1) has undercut and breaks up (cover +1). | ||||||||
O26 | 2 | 10 | Ace | 4-3 Under | Pass | Hitch | Warren | 5 |
Another one of those dinko passes; Hiller leaves this one a little upfield which probably costs Western a yard or two. Warren comes up and makes a solid tackle. No coverage; +0.5 for the tackle. | ||||||||
O31 | 3 | 5 | Shotgun 4-wide | 3-3-5-ish | Pass | Deflection | Ezeh | Inc |
Roh lined up as a quasi standup DT a la Crable. He and Banks drop off into zones as Brown and Ezeh blitz from the other side. This gets Ezeh(+1) in unblocked; he leaps to deflect Hiller's pass, and Woolfolk nearly picks it off. Excellent coverage on the receivers Hiller was checking (Woolfolk +1, cover +1). Steve Sharik analyzed this play in a diary. | ||||||||
Drive Notes: Punt, 24-0, 6 min 2nd Q. | ||||||||
Ln | Dn | Ds | O Form | D Form | Type | Play | Player | Yards |
O20 | 1 | 10 | I-Form | Base 4-3 | Pass | Dumpoff | Brown | 2 |
Michigan doesn't get lined up quite in time before the snap but still defends this well. Initial hitch is pumped but decided against (Warren +1, cover +1) and then Hiller comes down to a checkdown that Brown(+1) tackles immediately on. | ||||||||
O22 | 2 | 8 | Shotgun 3-wide | Base 4-3 | Pass | Tipped Hitch | -- | 6 |
Four man rush doesn't get much pressure(pressure -1) and Hiller can check down to the tailback. If he catches the ball he gains like two yards because JB Fitzgerald(+1) is going to crush him as the ball arrives. Instead he deflects the ball into the air, where another WMU receiver snags it for decent yardage. Unfortunate. (Cover +1) | ||||||||
O28 | 3 | 2 | Ace | 4-4 under | Pass | Hitch | Warren | 11 |
Okay, Michigan has done this a few times so I'm going to dub it something: 4-4 under. This is a balanced formation with Woolfolk a deep safety and Williams pulled up to the line as an extra OLB. Warren is in man against an outside receiver who runs a two-yard hitch which is too open; he compounds this by slipping a bit on his break and therefore not being there on the catch to tackle. He sets up outside and forces the receiver back into Brown. (-1 Warren, -1 cover.) | ||||||||
O39 | 1 | 10 | Shotgun 3-wide | 4-3 Under | Pass | Hitch | -- | Inc |
No pressure(-1) from a four man rush; Hiller finds a guy on a littler hitch for what would be four or five but turfs it. | ||||||||
O39 | 2 | 10 | Ace 3-wide | Base 4-3 | Pass | Slant | Cissoko | 6 |
A two or three yard delayed slant; Cissoko's in man but doesn't break well, allowing the receiver to pick up a few yards after the catch. (Cover -1, Cissoko -0.5) | ||||||||
O45 | 3 | 4 | Shotgun 3-wide | 4-3 Under | Pass | Out | Cissoko | 9 |
Hiller throws an out on-time and accurate in from of Cissoko (cover -1). | ||||||||
M46 | 1 | 10 | Shotgun 3-wide | Base 4-3 | Run | Zone left | Mouton | 7 |
RVB(+1) blows the RG back, cutting off the frontside and forcing the RB to almost stop; that should be the end of the play, but either Martin or Mouton has taken a poor angle and given up an unnecessary cutback lane. I think I blame Mouton(-1), but this could easily be on Martin. Help from the coaching gallery? Also check out Woolfolk's track and tackle. | ||||||||
M39 | 2 | 3 | Shotgun 3-wide | Base 4-3 | Pass | Out | Floyd | 9 |
Super easy as Floyd(-1) is playing soft and is nowhere near this WR's route when the ball arrives. Three yards of YAC. (Cover -1) | ||||||||
M30 | 1 | 10 | Shotgun 3-wide | 3-3-5-ish | Pass | Hitch | Warren | 13 |
Warren bailing out into a three-deep zone that leaves a simple hitch wide open for a first down. Lot of irritating soft coverage on this drive. (Cover -1) | ||||||||
M17 | 1 | 10 | Ace 3-wide | Base 4-3 | Run | Zone left | Graham | -2 |
Graham(+1) blasts the LT back, causing a cutback, where Sagesse(+1) has burst through the line and tackle with an assist from Herron. | ||||||||
M19 | 2 | 12 | Shotgun 3-wide | Base 4-3 | Pass | Scramble | Graham | 2 |
Hiller drops back and is looking for the endzone; first read covered(+1). Graham(+0.5) fights through a blocker eventually to flush Hiller, and on the rollout no one is open (cover +1); Mouton forces him out after a couple yards. | ||||||||
M17 | 3 | 10 | Shotgun 3-wide | Base 4-3 | Pass | Sack | RVB | -9 |
RVB(+2) gets a great move on the G and shoots up into the pocket, which means that Roh(+1), who 's plowed the LT back, can't be avoided; as Hiller attempts to scramble out Roh grabs him and sacks. (Pressure +2) | ||||||||
Drive Notes: Missed FG(44), 31-0, EOH. | ||||||||
Ln | Dn | Ds | O Form | D Form | Type | Play | Player | Yards |
O3 | 1 | 10 | I-Form Tight | Base 3-4 | Run | Iso | Graham | 2 |
They shoot it up the middle and everyone holds their ground pretty well. Graham(+1) bursts inside and comes from outside to tackle at the LOS; a whole bunch of bodies fall forward. | ||||||||
O5 | 2 | 8 | I-Form Tight | Base 3-4 | Run | Iso | Herron | 4 |
This is actually a nine-man front, but Michigan is a bit confused about who should go where. On the snap Herron(-1) is confused and slants inside, so there's no one to take out the pulling guard and bounce the play. He recovers to tackle with Mouton but the pile lurches forward thanks to the guard's momentum. | ||||||||
O9 | 3 | 4 | Ace 4-wide | 4-3 Under | Pass | Slant | Cissoko | 13 |
Cissoko(-1) burned on the quick slant (cover -1) and isn't even in position to tackle immediately; when he does close the receiver runs through the attempt. Woolfolk cleans up. | ||||||||
O22 | 1 | 10 | Shotgun 4-wide | 4-3 Under | Pass | Hitch | Warren | 5 |
Again with the short dinky stuff; this one features an immediate tackle from Warren. | ||||||||
O27 | 2 | 5 | Shotgun 4-wide | Base 4-3 | Pass | Drag | -- | 7 |
Four man rush doesn't get pressure(-1), leaving Hiller to check out his options. Finding no one open (cover +1) he comes to a checkdown on the crossing route that picks up a first. Decent enough reaction from the secondary. Very few missed tackles today. | ||||||||
O34 | 1 | 10 | Shotgun 4-wide | 4-3 Under | Pass | Flanker screen | Brown | 7 |
Brown, lined up in a blitz position, takes two beats before dropping off into a zone. This is called by Robinson no minus, but the delay allows the flanker screen to develop; Brown does track down to tackle eventually. | ||||||||
O43 | 2 | 3 | Ace 3-wide | 4-3 Under | Pass | Sack | Martin | -3 |
Martin(+3) blows right through the center and, when Hiller hesitates on his three step drop, sacks authoritatively. GET IN THE CAR. (Pressure +2) Replay. | ||||||||
O46 | 3 | 6 | Shotgun 4-wide | 4-3 Under | Pass | Fly | Warren | 23 |
Michigan sends a bunch and they're about to get to Hiller, Brown first, when he lofts one up to a guy that Warren has blanketed. As he turns upfield to find the ball and possibly intercept—he's got two steps on the receiver—the WR's feet get in his and he falls to the ground. I'm not going to minus this because it's pure bad luck on an otherwise great play. (Pressure +1) | ||||||||
M39 | 1 | 10 | Shotgun 4-wide | 4-3 Under | Run | Inside zone | Ezeh | 3 |
So, yeah, this is something Steve Sharik was talking about in his diary: the frontside of this play is completely jammed; the RB has nowhere to go, and Ezeh's watching the guy come right at him. He can attack this play for no gain or a loss. Instead, he's hesitant and allows the guy to get into the hole, then slip by him for four yards that should never have happened. (-1 Ezeh) Good play by Sagesse(+1) to close down that frontside. | ||||||||
M36 | 2 | 7 | Shotgun 4-wide | 4-3 Under | Pass | Slant | Graham | Inc |
Graham(+1) avoids a cut, notices he's in the throwing lane, and bats the ball down. (Pressure +1) | ||||||||
M36 | 3 | 7 | Shotgun 4-wide | Base 3-4 | Pass | Drag | Mouton | 10 |
Graham's third near-sack of the day; he comes tearing around the corner(+2, pressure +2) instantly and has Hiller in his grasp about to sack when he dumps it off to a guy on a drag route in front of Mouton(-1) in man. Tough cover for a LB in man on a drag but results-based charting in most cases (cover -1). | ||||||||
M26 | 1 | 10 | Shotgun 3-wide | Base 3-4 | Run | Zone read dive | Ezeh | 9 |
I can't tell if this is on Patterson or Ezeh. It's a zone read dive on which Patterson is unblocked but takes an angle that makes him unable to track down the RB. It's a pretty quick-hitting play and he might have contain on the QB, though Hiller's not exactly Denard. Ezeh, meanwhile, gets free of the LT with a sweet spin move... that sees him completely out of position. Without knowing who's responsible for what I can't really render judgement. -1 for both, I guess. | ||||||||
M17 | 2 | 1 | I-Form Tight | ??? | Pass | Long handoff | -- | Inc |
Don't know what this defense is supposed to be because it appears Herron doesn't either. He's still trying to find out where he goes when they snap the ball. Hiller just airmails a long handoff, though. | ||||||||
M17 | 3 | 1 | Shotgun Tight | Base 3-4 | Run | QB draw | Mouton | 0 |
WMU screws something up because Mouton just isn't blocked and the pulling guard has no chance to get to him by the time Hiller arrives. He submarines and tackles(+0.5). Actually, this is the backup QB. | ||||||||
M17 | 4 | 1 | Ace 3-wide | 4-3 Under | Pass | Rollout out | Brown | Inc |
This is open in front of Brown in man; he didn't look totally prepared for the snap. Hiller again does Michigan a favor and wings it wide. | ||||||||
Drive Notes: Turnover on downs, 31-0, 1 min 3rd Q. After a very solid first half there's some confusion on a number of plays here. | ||||||||
Ln | Dn | Ds | O Form | D Form | Type | Play | Player | Yards |
O37 | 1 | 10 | Shotgun 4-wide | 4-3 Under | Run | Zone read keeper | Mouton | 11 |
Mouton(-2) crashes hard and this is no scrape, so Hiller just pulls it out and has tons of room. | ||||||||
O48 | 1 | 10 | Shotgun 4-wide | 3-4 base | Pass | Fly | Warren | Inc (Pen +15) |
Martin(+2) again blows through the center; the center sort of grabs at him, which slows him down and draws a flag. Hiller has just enough time to get a pass away. Again it's to a receiver that Warren has blanketed, but Warren doesn't get his head around for the ball and the WR tries to run through him and he gets called. I hate flags like this. Bad call. Penalties offset (pressure +2, cover +1) | ||||||||
O48 | 1 | 10 | I-form 3-wide | Base 4-3 | Run | FB Dive | Roh | 4 + 15 Pen |
WMU runs the FB-dive outside-pitch combo, giving it off on the dive. They catch Michigan in a stunt so there's no resistance until Roh(+0.5) comes around to tackle. Their rock, our scissors... a little. Not like this was a big gain. Warren(-2) picks up a personal foul afterwards. | ||||||||
M33 | 1 | 10 | Ace 3-wide | 4-3 Under | Pass | Yakety Sax | Mouton | Int |
Corner/LB/S blitz from whatever the heck Williams is gets him in unblocked (+1, cover +1) after he slips by the RB coming out of the backfield. Hiller loads up to throw deep—FWIW this would have been a shot at Floyd and from what I can tell his coverage is pretty good as they run off the screen—but Threets it, fluttering a ball skyward that Mouton(+1) dives to grab. | ||||||||
Drive Notes: Interception, 31-0, 14 min 4th Q. | ||||||||
Ln | Dn | Ds | O Form | D Form | Type | Play | Player | Yards |
O15 | 1 | 10 | Shotgun 2-back | 4-3 Under | Run | Zone read keeper | Mouton | 3 |
Backup QB in. This has an option to pitch that the QB doesn't take. Good job by Mouton(+1) to wade through some trash, read the play, and tackle. | ||||||||
O18 | 2 | 7 | Shotgun 4-wide | Base 3-4 | Pass | Bubble screen | -- | Inc |
Hiller back in and just overthrows this. He has not been good. | ||||||||
O18 | 3 | 7 | Shotgun 4-wide | Base 3-4 | Pass | Slant | Warren | Inc (Pen + 6) |
Warren(-1, cover -1) is all over the receiver and gets a deserved flag. | ||||||||
O24 | 1 | 10 | I-Form Tight | Base 3-4 | Run | Iso | Graham | 3 |
Graham ends up fighting through a double but can't make a diving tackle attempt; his vacating the area leaves a bunch of linebacker sorts attempting to hold back a wave of OLs. The pile lurches forward for a bit and West can dive for a few. Em… nothing? | ||||||||
O27 | 2 | 7 | I-Form Tight | 4-3 Under | Pass | Post | Floyd | 73 |
The big touchdown. Floyd(-3) gets burned badly and Woolfolk(-3) is sucked up despite having the deep center of the field. Note that Graham was about to tear into Hiller, too. (Cover –3) | ||||||||
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 31-7, 12 min 4th Q. | ||||||||
Ln | Dn | Ds | O Form | D Form | Type | Play | Player | Yards |
O20 | 1 | 10 | I-Form | 4-3 Under | Pass | Corner | Floyd | 29 |
Graham, Roh, Martin out FWIW, so it's getting pretty scrubby out there. I'm going to stop tracking pressure and cover at this point. Floyd(-1) gets burned on a corner route that Hiller hits. | ||||||||
O49 | 1 | 10 | I-Form | 4-3 Under | Run | FB Dive | Sagesse | 1 |
No push whatsoever from the line and no creases as Sagesse(+1) and RVB(+1) hold up against doubles. FB dive goes nowhere. | ||||||||
50 | 2 | 9 | Shotgun 4-wide | Base 4-3 | Pass | Out | Brown | 11 |
Ezeh comes on a blitz and spectacularly hurdles the RB who attempts to block him, but Hiller's got the ball away. Good timing, good accurate route against Brown(a harsh -0.5). | ||||||||
M39 | 1 | 10 | Shotgun 4-wide | Base 3-4 | Run | Dive | Martin | 4 |
Martin(-1) has come back in and is clearly trying to do one of his crazy ninja pass rush moves because he hops outside a guard just in time for WMU to run a dive where he would have been normally. Linebackers converge with Ezeh(+1) raking the ball free. Michigan recovers. | ||||||||
Drive Notes: Fumble, 31-7, 7 min 4th Q. |
Wait just a second, there's another caller on the line.
What do you make of the performance of the Michigan defense against Hiller and WMU? My initial observation was that they just shut down a future NFL quarterback and that's a great sign for the rest of the year. Upon further contemplation I got to wondering how much of a factor Hiller's health was. He had off season knee surgery and when other players have ligament operations we tend to hear it takes them a full year to be completely confident in it again. Is this the same for quarterbacks and if so, was this a contributing factor in Hiller's poor performance?
Andy Heck
Hiller was not as advertised. He yakety-saxed a couple balls, airmailed a few others, and was considerably less accurate than Forcier. But the Michigan defense had something to do with that. They got a considerable amount of pressure for such a dink-and-dunk offense and usually covered Hiller's first read unless they were intentionally playing soft. And they tackled much better. It's a lot easier to see this in a—
Defensive Line | ||||
Player | + | - | T | Notes |
Graham | 12 | - | 12 | Ended two drives and should have caused two INTs with dominating pass rush; lack of a sack nearly inexplicable. |
Heininger | - | 1 | -1 | Got one drive, maybe two IIRC. |
Patterson | - | 1 | -1 | Came on after Heininger. |
Roh | 5.5 | 1 | 4.5 | Pretty good debut; showed a variety of pass-rush moves including a sick spin. |
Herron | 0.5 | 1 | -0.5 | Did make one good tackle from behind to prevent a long gainer. |
Martin | 5.5 | 1 | 4.5 | Two great pass rush moves on the interior are most of those points. |
Van Bergen | 5 | 0.5 | 4.5 | More effective on review; did not give ground, albeit against a MAC team. |
Sagesse | 3 | - | 3 | Functional. We haz depth? |
TOTAL | 31.5 | 5.5 | 26 | Crushing; not surprising when Michigan picked up three sacks and should have had three more. |
Linebacker | ||||
Player | + | - | T | Notes |
Ezeh | 5.5 | 4 | 1.5 | Instincts did not seem vastly improved but wasn't exploited in coverage once, which is a major step forward. |
Mouton | 2.5 | 4 | -1.5 | Seemed irresponsible. |
Brown | 4 | 0.5 | 3.5 | Way better than Thompson against the spread. |
Fitzgerald | 1 | - | 1 | |
Demens | - | - | - | Don''t think he played. |
TOTAL | 13 | 8.5 | 4.5 | Not a huge number but more on their coverage later. |
Secondary | ||||
Player | + | - | T | Notes |
Warren | 3.5 | 4 | -0.5 | Special breakout on Warren later. |
Cissoko | 3 | 2.5 | 0.5 | Solid, not spectacular. |
Floyd | - | 5 | -5 | Yikes. |
Turner | - | - | - | DNP |
Woolfolk | 1 | 3 | -2 | Harsh; breakout section |
Williams | 1 | - | 1 | I love 1-0-1 days from safeties. |
Emilien | - | - | - | DNP |
Jones | - | - | - | DNP |
TOTAL | 8.5 | 14.5 | -6 | "Coverage" to mitigate. |
Metrics | ||||
Pressure | 16 | 6 | 10 | A couple of instances where four man-rushes got slowed but a lot of pressure from little blitzing. |
Coverage | 16 | 10 | 6 | A lot of the minuses came after the shouting was over. |
So there you go: big plus days in both the metrics, and if I'd remembered I wanted to add "tackling" this year I can tell you that tackling would have been hugely positive as well. When you're looking at the numbers, keep in mind that a large section of the minuses are directly attributable to JT Floyd, which says a lot about Michigan's corner depth but not much about the starting eleven, and that Michigan got pretty soft late.
What about Brown at his new position?
As Greg—
As GERG said, possibly apocryphally, he's "a hell of a lot better player there." Stripped of the requirement to find cosines and the like, Brown was free to be a super-athletic linebacker who's good in man and good at short zone drops without being a touchdown magnet. He's a modern OLB. We've yet to see if he can hold up against big pounders but with Notre Dame missing its starting fullback and starting a wisp of a pass-receiving TE, that potential weakness won't get tested just yet.
Speaking of, initial GERG review?
His defense makes a lot more sense than Shafer's even if it's almost the same formation. Michigan never got away from its base set but that's a lot less infuriating when the guy you're running out on third and long is Brown, not Johnny Thompson, and you've got the flexibility provided by a deathbacker. Michigan never, ever went to a three-man line except on obvious passing downs, never found themselves on the wrong end of a hugely speculative playcall, and rarely found themselves uncertain of what to do before the snap. GERG simplified the defense, made it flexible enough to function against spread teams without getting out of base, and put his players in positions to do what they do well.
Thumbs up after game one; game two will be a much stiffer test.
So Warren's day was… interesting. Argh Michael Floyd?
Short of being totally awesome in all ways I thought Warren's day was as encouraging as it could be given the three penalties and a couple plays that came at his expense. His game looked like that montage in a superhero movie where the hero performs a slapstick routine of smashing cars, punching through walls, and burning innocent pedestrians to death before he gets a handle on his newfound powers. Warren was hyper-aggressive in his first game free from bone chip soup in his ankle; the results were mixed-to-encouraging.
Plays marked "Warren" above:
- Busts up long route with bump; has better position than the receiver.
- Good position on a third and four slant that was fired too high and hard.
- Thumps ball loose on a hitch. (Or, at least, helps a receiver who was already dropping the ball finish dropping the ball.)
- Leaves two hitches open on Michigan's soft pre-half drive.
- Immediate tackle on hitch.
- Running a guy's route for him and going to be in position to intercept when receiver trips him (not in a penalty sort of way).
- Running almost inside a guy's jersey and gets called for interference, which I think is a crappy call.
- Gets deserved PI on a slant he was too aggressive on.
So… yeah, Warren had a couple incidents where Michigan gave up yards but the bulk of his day was running Juan Nunez's routes for him. Sometimes this got flagged and once he got tripped. But I'll take that sort of aggressive clamp-down coverage any day when the opponent is Michael Floyd. If Warren ends up a yard in front of Floyd the three to thirty times Notre Dame attempts to hit him deep, Michigan's going to be in good shape.
What happens when Notre Dame goes to three-wide?
Nothing. Michigan spent the entire day its base set and has no corner depth. They do have guys on the edge who can cover Robby "That's Racist" Parris or whoever; it's not like Notre Dame's backup WRs are speed demons.
Graham is the most obvious answer, and everyone shared in an all-around excellent performance before the D got backup- and vanilla-happy late.
JT Floyd looked overmatched by a MAC team, which bodes very unwell for Michigan's corner depth. Jonas Mouton didn't have a strong game, though as mentioned it's tough to tell how good his zone drops were and the way the game went suggests they went pretty well.
What does it mean for Notre Dame?
I've sort of gone from thinking this is a bad matchup for Michigan to thinking it's an okay one or even good. Stick Warren on Floyd and Cissoko on Tate, give them deep halves help, spare the blitzing and let Michigan's diverse and sundry rushers attack the Notre Dame defensive line… I can see this working out. The prospect of a max-protect bomb still worries given what happened against Western, but if Warren's as ready to live up to the five-star hype—and he looked far more likely to in the Western game than any other to date—and Michigan can get away with shifting the coverage over to Tate and pulling up a safety into a robber zone to bracket Rudolph, I like Michigan's chances to hold Notre Dame into that 20-24 point range where victory seems a strong possibility. Notre Dame's run game has always been a finesse sort of thing heavy on screens and draws, which plays into the hypothetical strengths of Michigan's slimfast defense
I watched the Nevada game and a lot of ND's first half production was based on exploiting Nevada's "explosive pass rushers" at defensive end, which rushers also happened to be completely irresponsible. Graham isn't likely to be as exploitable, but Roh or Herron might be. I'd line up Graham on the strongside, which might induce ND to have Rudolph stay in to block, as they're going to double him lots anyway.
The key will be the safeties. Woolfolk is going to have to think deep first and not get caught flat-footed like he did on the Western touchdown; if Michigan loses to Notre Dame because of ND's ground game, well… that will be a surprise.