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A GATHERING STORM Zimbabwe's final hope for reform? s. 2 " Mugabe is a crook. MDC-T leader Morgan Tsvangirai in November 20101 Please see reference notes on page 33 Forsidefoto: Tine Harden s. 3 Foreword The formation in early 2009 of a coalition government A certain economic stability has been achieved, enabling including the major political parties and the halt to years shops to provide basics and expand their reach. In rural of hyperinflation by the introduction of foreign currency as areas, dollarisation has increased possibilities for gaining legal tender created breathing space for all Zimbabweans. from fair rains, though severe bottlenecks in transport and Individuals, companies and Government began rebuilding marketing is holding back development. their livelihood, their businesses and service provision. Political parties and civil society organisations could start As the Inclusive Government is heading for completion rebuilding too and utilise the new dispensation for asserting of its first two years, political instability is hampering real influence. economic recovery nationwide. Attempts by reformers to advance the re-introduction of the rule of law, including In November 2009 Action Aid Denmark published a report a reduction of political oppression, and the rebuilding of on the consequences and opportunities arising from this State Institutions have largely been inconclusive and gains reconstruction. It took its title Breathing Space from the appears fragile. fact that a large number of individuals interviewed descri- bed the new dispensation as having provided them with a During the latter part of 2010, relations between the much-needed breathing space. principals in the coalition government appear to have deteriorated to such a degree that cooperation on reforms, The report noted that notable such that will pave the way for free and fair elec- tions, seems to be threatened. 'in every society experiencing rapid transformation, refor- mers and conservatives are battling hard for control. In the Civil society has largely been unable to utilise the ope- present Zimbabwean interim, both groups are presently ning to advance their reformist agenda and seem to be able to breathe and gather strength. It is too early to as- somewhat demoralised by the lack of progress. sess which of these opposing camps are able to force a contraction on the other parts' ability to draw strength from International assistance, notably from the region, will be the interim'. crucial to assist Zimbabwe in its way forward, not least assuring that the political impasse that has divided and In concluding this year's report, such an assessment is scarred the country for too long, will be freely and fairly however imperative. The picture is yet muddy and preg- resolved at the impending elections. nant with uncertainty and ambiguities, but there is a gene- ral consensus amongst citizens, political actors, internatio- This report is being prepared in the run up to a meeting nal bodies and observers that reformers have been seen of key international donors and a parallel meeting of civil lacking in initiative and results - and that conservatives in society organisations in Europe and representatives from many respects seems to have best utilised the breathing Zimbabwe. space for gathering renewed strength. It aims at informing the debate at these meetings and Last year's report also noted, that suggests a number of recommendations for the stakehol- ders in those meetings. 'per definition, a breathing space is an interim ... There is a tacit suggestion in the term that after the break, space will 25th November 2010 once again diminish, shrink, close in. This, too, is a feeling many Zimbabweans share - with trepidation'. One year later, as this report is being prepared, the breathing space seems to be seriously contracting. There Frans Mikael Jansen is a sense of a looming showdown of potentially deva- Secretary General stating proportions. And as the Report's title indicates, ActionAid Denmark trepidation is growing. s. 4 " The most we can do is meet and discuss, despite these big fears for violence because our hands are tied. Chipfunde-Vava, convener of 50 Civil Society Organisations' deliberations on how to ensure free and fair elections.2 s. 5 TABLE OF CONTENTS OVERVIEW 7 4. CIVIL SOCIETY 21 1.1 Diamonds 8 4.1 The African examples 23 1.2 October 7 10 4.2 Disorientation 24 1.3 Endgame 11 5. THREATS TO REFORM 25 2. ECONOMY 12 5.1 Three distinct threats 25 2.1 Improvements - but Zimbabwe is now 5.2 Sanctions 26 mainly exporting unprocessed minerals 12 5.3 The threats to NGOs 26 2.2 Rural realities 14 6. RECOMMENDATIONS 27 3. POLITICAL PARTIES AND THEIR STRATEGIES 15 3.1 Zanu-PF: Determined, powerful and 15 APPENDIX A 29 highly ulnerable Explanation of Key Concepts 3.2 MDC-T, troubled reformers 16 3.2. 1 New determination? Elections? 16 3.3 MDC-M: A mouse that roars 19 APPENDIX B 31 Civic Society Statement on the Impending Referendum and Elections s. 6 " This is now a hard-knuckled phase of Zimbabwean politics. George Charamba, spokesman for President Robert Mugabe3 s. 7 OVERVIEW 1 A number of crucial reforms for the reconstruction of Breathing space is still present in the economical sphere Zimbabwe is listed in the though it is narrow. With projected growth between 5,9% GPA. The parties agreed to: (IMF)11 and 8,1% (MoF)12 Zimbabwe is in 2010 experien- cing real economic growth for the first time in 12 years. • build a society free of violence, fear, intimidation, This is however from such a paltry base that most Zimbab- hatred, patronage, corruption and founded on weans only feel this as absence of decline. They do howe- justice, fairness, openness, transparency, dignity ver vigorously appreciate the stability that dollarisation has and equality brought to the economy, reducing inflation to a 'normal' rate of projected 4,5%, enabling farmers and businesses to • give priority to the restoration of economic stability and growth in Zimbabwe plan and invest and shops to stock all necessary items. • conduct a comprehensive, transparent and Dollarisation has however meant that utilities and munici- non-partisan land audit ... for the purpose of palities can no longer hide real costs in an artificially valued establishing accountability and eliminating multiple independent currency. Citizens have experienced dramatic farm ownerships. real increases in their expenditure on rent, water, electricity, telephone, school fees, etc. On top of this unemployment • create conditions for our people to write a in the formal sector remains high, estimated to be not constitution for themselves below 85%, and as remittances from the country's sub- stantial population of citizens residing overseas13 have likely • ensure equal treatment of all regardless of gender, race, ethnicity, place of origin and will work diminished due to economic crisis there, the few who earn towards equal access to development for all money support a growing part of their extended family. Economist John Robertson concludes that consequently, • create an environment of tolerance and respect "even if prices are not rising very much, the cost of living is"14. among Zimbabweans and that all citizens are treated with dignity and decency irrespective of Politically, breathing space appears to have shrunk. Whe- age, gender, race, ethnicity, place of origin or reas the Zimbabwe Peace Project recorded a drop in politi- political affiliation cally motivated incidents of violence during 2009, down to app. "a normal" level of 5-600 incidents per month, 2010 And, in doing so, has seen a continuous rise averaging about 800 incidents per month. These incidents have mainly taken place in rural (a) respect and uphold the Constitution and other laws and peri-urban areas, and are, according to ZPP, closely of the land; linked to the main political parties' attempts to dominate (b) adhere to the principles of the Rule of Law. the consultative phase of the Constitution-Making Process. In this report these individual reforms are generally referred The CMP serves well to illustrate Zanu-PF's adaptation to to as "the reforms" necessary to reconstruct Zimbabwe as the new dispensation. Initially it sought to sabotage the a democratic country. process by creating havoc and violently intimidating parti- cipants in the First All-Stakeholder Conference in mid-July As Zimbabwe is heading for the conclusion of its second 2009. However, as the party realised that sabotaging the year under the Inclusive Government10, threats to reforms process would not carry it forward, it re-oriented its ap- are mounting and a sense of dread for the expected up- proach. Firstly, it gave up the idea of muscling through the coming elections is spreading. controversial Kariba Draft15 as this was met with too much s. 8 resistance. Campaigning for what was seen as a Zanu-PF to freely discuss these matters nationally. Any hindrance of constitution gave too many reverberations of the 2000 such debate would have been a campaign platform in itself referendum. Instead, it 'dissolved' the draft in distilling the to widen political space and counter it's narrowing. positions most important to Zanu-PF and prepared for a nationwide campaign to have its supporters back these As the Constitution-Making Process demonstrated Zanu- positions. It then delayed the process for almost half a year PF's ability to act offensively in rural areas, on the natio- through confrontations on numerous questions of details, nal and regional scene the party has continuously piled until its party machine had finalised the campaign prepara- pressure on MDC-T in a relentless attempt to dominate its tions - and then went whole-heartedly into the process in governing partner, and it has done this with considerable order to dominate the views collected through the out- success. By failure to implement agreements, by outright reach meetings. breach of agreements, by unilateral actions, by divertive tactics, by skilful messaging within its blanket propaganda Whereas Zanu-PF's support in and capacity to dominate and by naked use of violence and intimidation, Zanu-PF rural areas, especially in the Manicaland and Mashonaland has during the past year strengthened its position to one East, West and Central Provinces were demonstrated in as 'The governing party within the coalition government', the 2008-election to have diminished dramatically, and thus seeking to reduce Morgan Tsvangirai's MDC-T to that whereas internal Zanu-PF reports have documented of a junior partner, even taunting it in the process19. As the withering of party structures16, the outreach process Zanu-PF has dominated the political agenda, MDC-T has provided an opportunity for the party to rally its structures, displayed weaknesses in taking political initiatives and has mainly rooted in its control of ward and district administra- been forced to continually react to Zanu-PF's diverse range tion, to generally dominate the majority of the out-reach of instruments of dominance rather than being pro-active. meetings. Zanu-PF seems confident that sufficiently po- pular support was recorded for its positions enabling it to This is not to say that MDC has not achieved successes, have most of these represented in the new constitution as some of them even crucially needed and almost miracu- it is drafted during December-March.17 lously performed. MDC-controlled ministers have mana- ged to greatly improve services in health and education, Through its campaign Zanu-PF seems to have scored a distributed 13 million textbooks to schools, halted deadly double victory by not only gathering support for its constitu- cholera epidemics, eliminated inflation and restored order tion positions, but also by utilising the CMP to re-establish to the economy. It is widely credited for having created the the party's influence in these rural constituencies.18 Violence breathing space. and intimidation has often accompanied this and political space has concurrently been shrunk considerably for all poli- Events during 2010 did however seem to indicate that the tical parties or positions other than Zanu-PF's. In addition, party have underestimated the reality of power politics as this ability on the part of Zanu-PF to utilise an issue hitherto the basis for everything else. Esteemed Harare analyst Eld- regarded as lost for the party, deftly utilising it to create a red Masunungure describes the reform strategy as aiming base of strength, bears witness to Zanu-PF's often overpo- for incremental democratisation in a contested equilibrium. wering ability to strategic thinking and tactical action - and a He characterises the two parties' approach to this contest similar lack of organisational strength in MDC. in the following way: In contrast to Zanu-PF's efficiently conducted campaign to "Zanu-PF takes politics very seriously and it is vastly more dominate the out-reach meetings, neither MDC nor Civil interested in power politics than economic policy and ser- Society Organisations seem to have made similar efforts to vice delivery. They understand power and they will look at ensure popular backing for their positions. Some attempts every single item on the agenda solely from the point of have, true, been thwarted by local police, CIO or other view of power. They never act without a clear calculation strong-arm authorities linked to Zanu-PF, and the majo- of whether an initiative will consolidate, expand or threaten rity of the victims in the ZPP-reported incidents belong to the power of Zanu-PF. They interpret everything in terms of these two groups. But this should not obscure the fact that power. MDC tends to look moralistically on power and po- neither MDC nor civil society have launched any attempt litics. That might be fine in an ideal world, but in Zimbabwe to seriously influence, let alone dominate, the process. The you have to be suspicious towards everything coming from reason for this could be the groups' perception that they Zanu-PF, especially if you consider yourself an opposition 'owned' the constitutional issue, having successfully cam- party." paigned since 1999 for constitutional changes. This lack of action must be regarded as a major tactical error on the side of both groups, perhaps most dramatically in conse- By concentrating on power politics and not letting itself quence for the CSO's, for whom the Constitution-Making be distracted by economics or service-delivery, Zanu-PF Process provided a golden opportunity to penetrate ter- seems to have successfully contested this equilibrium to its ritories hitherto not or difficultly accessible to them. own gain. Whether that too will halt the aim of incremental Should repression have been the main reason for CSOs democratisation is yet to be seen. not utilising the CMP to campaign in these areas for their constitutional positions, this too seems to have been a 1.1 DIAMONDS major tactical error in lost opportunities - after all, the Since the army in 2008 took control over the apparently President himself had repeatedly urged all Zimbabweans lucrative and newly discovered diamonds fields in the s. 9 Foto: Tine Harden Eastern Highlands' Marange area and sealed off public "war chest" to be used during the forthcoming elections, scrutiny of the extent of the mineral wealth, speculation Finance Minister Biti denies that this could possibly be the has been rife over who is benefiting from the proceeds of case.20 mainly the smuggling taking place from the area (as only little official export has been undertaken). Diamond sales from Zimbabwe are consequently highly controversial. The world body regulating diamond sales, As expected, all key top Zanu-PF officials have been im- the Kimberley Process, has authorised only two minor sa- plicated in benefiting from this, from Mugabe and his wife les from the stockpile held in Zimbabwe. Voting in the body downwards, but no definitive proof has been furnished. has been divided between European and American repre- Three companies with more or less obscure background sentatives in one camp, and Chinese, African and other have been given licences to mine, all of them in partnership Third World representatives in another. Intense lobbying is with the Government's Minerals Marketing Corporation centred on this body as international rights groups push to of Zimbabwe. In addition, the army has a concession to have Zimbabwe excluded from trading its diamonds due to be operated in collaboration with a Chinese company, human rights violations in Marange21 . The South African- allegedly run by that country's army. It is unclear to which born Kimberley Process Monitor, who is closely connected degree the state coffers are benefiting from its involvement to ANC government circles, is repeatedly being accused in these ventures. by Zimbabwean CSOs as having been "bought" by Zanu- PF to recommend sales. These accusations were reinfor- It is also unclear how much value is actually being mined ced as a local human rights activist, Farai Maguwu was in Marange and how much the Government will ultimately arrested, after the monitor told police that he had received be able to benefit from even well regulated and transparent documents from Maguwu implying breaches of human procedures. As always with diamonds in poor countries, rights in Marange. Several European and American banks rumours are rife and fantasies easily prevail. Contrary have decided not to finance companies' trade in Zimbab- to widespread beliefs of the army accumulating a vast wean diamonds. The World Diamond Council has advised s. 10 its cutting and trading company member not to deal with members of Parliaments' upper house, the Senate and as Zimbabwean diamonds before the Kimberley Process has such crucial to Zanu-PF's overall Parliamentary majority. taken a final stand on the issue. However, a working Senate is crucial too for MDC's reform bills, notably the revisions of law-and-order and media bills 1.2. OCTOBER 7 and election reforms. Tsvangirai had decided in 2008 to put aside his personal and political differences with Mugabe and work together There are signs that MDC-T in its actions managed to un- with him to secure the success of the IG. After a num- nerve Zanu-PF. As the Senate convened a few days later, ber of meetings, the two started warming to each other, all Governors were conspicuously absent. And five days boasting in public their working relationship was now cor- later, Mugabe reacted by claiming the GPA would end by dial. Tsvangirai went all over the world defending Mugabe February 2011 and demanding elections no later than June and reminding everyone he was a liberation struggle hero 2011. whose legacy could still be rescued. In all possible venues he appeared to go very far to establish a working relations- With only nine months to go and an excruciatingly slow hip with Mugabe. Increasingly as political results appeared Constitution-Making Process limping towards its optimi- to be lacking, a growing number of critics in his party and stically planned referendum scheduled for late June 2011, in the population felt he had gone too far. Simultaneously, Mugabe's move immediately offset panicky reactions. opinion polls showed a growing trend in falling voter sup- In the general population this was fuelled by memories port for MDC.22 of the widespread violence, looting and intimidation that accompanied the second round of presidential elections In early October, MDC-T appears to have changed tactics. in 2008. In the business community it was sparked by The trigger was once again the outstanding issues, mainly fears of companies' fragile recovery being threatened by the appointment of provincial governors. Months earlier, months of disturbances, arson and lawlessness. And in the parties had agreed to divide the posts after a 5:4:1 the political community by the realisation that most reforms formula, with Tsvangirai's party getting the largest number needed to ensure a free and fair election had not yet been of posts, followed by Zanu-PF and MDC-M. Mugabe had undertaken. The dreaded Public Order and Security Act, however never executed the agreement. Tsvangirai then the draconian media regulation Access to Information and patiently waited for the governor's term to expire by July Public Protection Act and the Broadcasting Services Act 31st. Still nothing happened, as the issue became part (retrenching Zanu-PF's control over the airwaves) are still of the wider disagreements on 'outstanding' issues. The fully in force - no meaningful media reform has been un- formula was once again confirmed as an agreement during dertaken, just as the voters' roll is still in dire shambles with the Windhoek SADC summit in August, where a 30-day thousands of ghost voters registered - and even further deadline was agreed by all parties for implementing a wide hundreds of thousands of voters omitted from the list. range of outstanding issues, including the appointment of governors. The deadline came and went without imple- Once again, judgement falls hard on MDC-T for this lack mentation of any of the agreed points. As Robert Mugabe of reformist pace. Since March 2008 MDC has enjoyed on the Principals' Monday meeting October 4 informed his a majority vote in the Parliament, yet the party has been two colleagues, that he had re-appointed all 10 Zanu-PF lethargic in utilising this for passing crucially needed re- governors and that he had no intention of ever swearing forms. In addition, as the MDC agreed to a model for the in MDC-T treasurer Roy Bennett as deputy agriculture Constitution-Making Process whereby every MP would be minister, Tsvangirai was stunned and furious. heading an out-reach team - and earning attractive per diems - Parliament was rendered inactive for almost half of On Thursday, October 7, in a rare aggressive statement, the legislative year of 2010, from June to mid-November Tsvangirai viscously lashed out against Mugabe. In detail 2010. It is true that bills are traditionally prepared in the re- he described his feelings of "betrayal" by Mugabe, even levant ministries, and all the above Acts are in the custody referring to Mugabe and his loyalists as his "yester enemies of Zanu-PF Minister, who do not seem to hurry in tabling and tormentors", revealing his bitterness. He denoun- their political opponent's bill. But the Constitution allows ced the appointments and launched a raft of initiatives. MPs to table private bills - which MDC-T has utilised in Referring to the GPA's inclusion in the constitution and its their reform bill of POSA. In spite of its regular talk of forth- articles binding the President to consult him on any major coming elections, the MDC have displayed an outstanding appointments, he denounced Mugabe's "unconstitutional" patience in preparing for these, not least the necessary initiatives. He consequently wrote to a number of states reforms creating what ANC during the 1990's transitional urging them not to recognise a number of Mugabe-ap- phase in South Africa termed "a level playing ground" for pointed ambassadors and vowing that his party would not the forthcoming electoral contest. accept any dealings with the unconstitutionally appointed governors. Since then, MDC-T seems to have shifted tactics to a more assertive stance. Nothing came of the campaign against the ambassadors as the recipient states (and the UN) had long accepted most of them23. The issue of the governors is however more contentious, as they are s. 11 1.3 ENDGAME are heads of liberation movements, most of them facing As last year's report indicated, one of the country's op- challengers demanding good governance. The longevity posing camps would eventually be able to force a contrac- and gravity of the Zimbabwean crisis has forced them into tion on the other parts' ability to draw strength from the dealing with MDC, applauded by donors, but this has not breathing space. made them less reluctant to recognise the movement. They could have a strategic interest in not assisting MDC As perception of Zanu-PF having gained upper hand in to victory - this might strengthen their challengers at home. this, the impending showdown is increasingly instilling fear, resulting in resignation and trepidation amongst Zimbab- As the contest is sharpening, leading Zanu-PF officials weans. It is as if President Mugabe has the capability have become bolder in asserting that MDC-T has no hope to mesmerize; as he has said he will have elections, a of winning. In line with the above quote from Stanley Mu- substantial part of society react as if they take for granted denge, Zanu-PF national chairman Simon Khaya Moyo in a that it will be so. late October message obviously also targeted for the ruling (liberation parties) in neighbouring states stated that Faced with this, Tsvangirai flanked by the MDC-T leaders- hip in October went on a nationwide tour to invigorate "No liberation movement will ever be replaced by people party faithful and citizens alike. "I can assure you there will coming from nowhere" 25. be no violence because we will use all our powers national- ly, regionally and internationally to have a credible election," Equally powerful Presidential Affairs Minister Didymus he soothed the audience.24" Mutasa, a key Central Committee member, in September repeated a party vow never to hand over power to any- Will such rhetoric persuade a voter population, hitherto body outside their own circle: regularly cowed by threats and violence to yet participate, campaign and vote in the coming elections? ZANU PF will never hand over power to MDC leader Mor- gan Tsvangirai, even if he wins next year's elections. He will It possibly might. Many observers, mainly foreign, have never rule this country. Never ever.... If we go to the polls decried Zimbabweans' lack of lust for confrontation with and he defeats Mugabe, ZANU PF and the people of Zim- the forces of the regime. They obviously underestimate babwe will not allow that.26 Zanu-PF's longstanding reputation for ruthlessness ("we have degrees in violence," as president Robert Mugabe re- Foto: Tine Harden minded everybody a decade ago). They also overlook that fact that Africans all over the continent might be displaying inertia in voting or speaking out against their African rulers - but experience also shows that once they have made this move, they show equal inertia in retracting their positions. African voters are generally far more loyal to their chosen party than European or American voters. All signs are that the MDC-T can win a solid majority in any election - given they are free and fear. Research from Zimbabwe's leading political polling agency, the Mass Public Opinion Institute, MPOI, have during the past 18 months recorded a consi- stent lead by MDC-T over all other political rivals, though the lead over Zanu-PF is narrowing. Consequently, the question is not whether MDC-T can win an election, but whether it will be allowed to. Or rather, gi- ven the fact that MDC-T from years of experience is expec- ting its opponents to deny it their victory, whether MDC-T will manage to win, including manage a transfer of power. Such management requires resources, skills and not least bold initiatives on a range of fields, from self-defence measures at village and community level, over a raft of much-needed reform initiatives long neglected, to pro- active politicking to build and link solid local, regional and international alliances - also a long un-successful activity, especially regarding MDC-T's immediate neighbours in South Africa, Mozambique, Zambia, Namibia and Angola. History shows that SADC is a reluctant partner in the pro- cess as most of its leaders preferring not to get embroiled in Zimbabwe's contest. All of SADC's prominent presidents s. 12 2 ECONOMY 2.1. IMPROVEMENTS - BuT ZIMBABWE IS NOW constitute the majority of formally employed and wages MAINLY EXPORTING uNPROCESSED MINERALS are paltry, teachers and nurses earning US$ 130-175 per In Zimbabwe, any evaluation of the economy is invariably month - some however being given bonuses on top of held up against the decline experienced since app. 2000, US$ 50-150 per month. The Zimbabwean Poverty Datum culminating in 2008/09. That year, massive amounts of Line for a family is estimated at US$ 500 per month.30 Zimbabwe dollars were printed in preparation for the presidential run-off elections in June 2008 and used to pay Remittances from relatives overseas have played an impor- supporters of Zanu-PF. Later in the year, inflation soared tant role in Zimbabweans' survival strategies over the past to 89,700,000,000,000,000,000,000 per cent as 1 US$ years and continue to do so. The International Fund for fetched Z$10-trillion27. It is a widely held view that Zanu- Agricultural Development (IFAD) estimates that app. US$ PF was forced not only by SADC pressure to accept the 700 million was transferred as remittances to Zimbabwe in GPA, but also by the prospect of an impending meltdown 2009. This exceeded Government's entire wage bill (US$ of the economy. It should be noted that all top Zanu-PF 517 million)31. One could however assume that the flow of officials themselves are business operators, and though remittances slowed in 2010 due to the global economic the party as such will give preference to power politics over crisis. economic policy, individual party chefs have to consider their personal interests, too. As this year capped a decade- In September 2010 Finance Minister Tendai Biti revised long contraction with no less than 14,4 per cent negative upwards growth figures for the year to 8,1 per cent. Both growth, all businesses in Zimbabwe except the most IMF and the Economist Intelligence Unit find this too opti- politically linked were hurt. mistic, giving figures of 5,1 and 4,1.32 Counting in inflation and a real population growth of zero (perhaps negative due 2009 began with Z$ inflation running at 10.000 per cent, to emigration), mainly due to AIDS, the result is real growth i.e. adding 24 zeros per year. Mid-January saw the introdu- per capita. At the basis of this growth is a staggering 83 ction of a trillion dollar note (12 zeroes) and 100% inflation per cent surge in exports during first half of 201033 based in a day. A couple of weeks later the Z$ was finally aban- on minerals and a bumper tobacco crop. doned and the multi-currency system popularly known as dollarisation introduced. For the remainder of the first half Exported minerals are mainly platinum (Zimbabwe holding of 2009, Zimbabweans generally saw prises steadily falling, the world's second-largest deposits after South Africa), and calculations show that real value of wages doubled ferrochrome and gold. Mining now accounts for almost 70 in 2009. Alas, only few people had wages as the vast per cent of exports. Sadly, this reflects the deterioration of majority of the formal work force was now unemployed. the Zimbabwean economy, as refined agricultural produ- Prices started rising again in the latter half of 2009 and by cts (mainly first-grade tobacco), which requires much less mid 2010, some of the real wage increase had been lost foreign capital input and employs a dramatically higher to renewed inflation, though real wages were still double of number of people than mining, used to dominate exports. that in January 200928. This trend is likely set to continue as global commodity pricing are once again rising and both Zimbabwe's manu- The extent of the burdens placed on the few people in for- facturing or farming sectors (previously its major source of mal employment is evident in numbers published by OCHA employment) continue faltering. at the time of dollarisation: Out of the country's 12 million people, only 480 000 had formal jobs, down 87 per cent In recent years it was discovered that Zimbabwe has been from 3,6 million only five years earlier, in 2003. Employ- gifted with very large deposits of diamonds of good quality. ment has since risen, but only marginally29. Civil servants Prior to a massive find in the Eastern Highlands' Marange s. 13 area in 2006, diamond production in Zimbabwe was mainly contributed marginally to the public coffers. The Kimberley limited to accidental finds in alluvial gold diggings, with the Process only applies to uncut diamonds, and Zanu-PF in exception of a small mine near the South African border. the guise of government is searching for partners to estab- Chaos and controversy has reigned over this sector ever lish local polishing and cutting facilities; so far 12 licences since, as first the police moved in to control rival syndica- have been issued at a cost each of US$ 20,000.38 tes of diggers and smugglers in Marange and then, in late 2008, the army took control. Zimbabwe has had difficulties Zimbabwe was at independence Africa's second-most exporting its diamonds under the international controlling industrialised country. The sector was much diversified, body known as the Kimberley Process due to continued including engineering, textiles and clothing, pharmaceu- allegations of human rights violations, as well as legal and ticals, furniture, food processing and much else. Until the procedural irregularities concerning exploitation rights of commercial agricultural sector was virtually destroyed, ma- the Marange fields. nufacturing was the second largest employer of labour. As the economy declined, production fell in 2008 to only 8% The Government estimates an area of 77.00034- 125.00035 of productive capacity. Dollarisation saw this rise in 2009 hectares around Marange is pregnant with diamonds. to almost 40%. Sadly, the upturn was short-lived, and cur- Zimbabwean newspapers reported in October of addi- rently the sector is exceptionally fragile and decimated and tional diamond finds in Binga, Masvingo and Tsholotso36. most production capacity is lying idle, rusting away. Zimbabwe is presently sitting on between five and six million carats that it could not sell during its suspension Most critical in all economic sectors is the acute lack from the Kimberley process.37 One public sale and another of working capital as Zimbabwe is extremely illiquid. conducted behind closed doors during 2010 have only The economy has shrunk to such a degree that neither Foto: Tine Harden s. 14 the stock exchange nor local banks are able to provide forced to barter but often preferred storing food for barter working capital. Most of the populace is still reluctant to rather than selling this and 'storing' the money in banks. deposit money in banks, partly as they fear for the security of their funds, partly because of high service fees charged Humanitarian needs have diminished since the reforms by banks (most banks charge a monthly fee of app. $ 10 were initiated; agencies will provide food aid to close to 1,3 for each account plus stiff fees for each transaction). The million people in 2011. It should be noted that this figure international money market is weary of lending to or invest and the practice of distributing food aid, including agricul- in Zimbabwe. What little money is available is subject to tural inputs, is highly political: Local authorities, traditionally very high interest rates. Relief from a special World Bank controlled by Zanu-PF, wish to be seen as providing food allocation is from November being allocated to banks for to their subjects; food aid has long been extremely politici- commercial loans; finance minister Biti expect that this sed in Zimbabwe. In addition, a number of NGO's are also input will lift industry utilisation to 40% in 2011.39 perceived as being in favour of remaining 'in business' of procuring and distributing food aid. A revival remains fragile for a host of economic reasons: Di- minished consumer buying power, extremely erratic electri- Secondly, there is a notable exception to the cash crunch city supply, intermittent telephonic and telecommunication in tobacco farming. 2009 saw a huge number of small- services, uncertainty in rail and air services all contribute. scale farmers moving into tobacco-growing (numbering 51.000, up from 30.000 in the immediately preceding Lack of political stability and of guarantees for the rule of years40) and as this coincided with very favourable weather law are major impediments to foreign direct investments. conditions plus initial above-normal prices, some 50.000 Gazetted indigenisation regulations, whereby all companies families consequently have had a felt inflow of cash. For with a capital exceeding US$ 500,000 must have local the 2010/2011 season an even larger number of small- black ownership of at least 51 per cent, have further deter- scale farmers are planting tobacco. red investors. In addition, rising global prices for cotton, another cash Foreign direct investment is consequently trickling in crop for which Zimbabwe is known to produce high-quality sparingly, except from China, which is investing heavily in harvests, have spurred international and local contractors capital-intensive mining from which very little trickle-down to sign up thousands of farmers. As tobacco farming is is felt. restricted to the provinces with heavy soil and good rain patterns, i.e. Manicaland and the three Mashonaland 2.2. RuRAL REALITIES provinces, cotton is grown in lighter soils, and the trend is Two competing trends seems to dominate economic consequently that the areas receiving cash income is likely conditions in rural areas, where an estimated half of the to expand. majority of Zimbabwe's population live and work. Firstly, in sharp contrast to urban life, dollarisation has in itself not Meteorological forecasts for the 2010/11 season predict changed life very much. Contrary to conventional thinking yet another above normal harvest. As the country this time dollarisation in itself is not disadvantageous to the small- has sufficient supplies of seeds and fertilizer, and as do- scale farming community ("they do not have access to nors, especially NGO's, have had ample time to implement foreign currency") - the notion of elusive 'foreign currency' a system of widespread distribution, next year might just is false as all currency in Zimbabwe is foreign. Peasant see a significant improvement of livelihoods in the rural farmers' livelihood is equally now as before shaped by their areas. capability to produce - and market - any surplus produc- tion above their own needs. The county does however not yet appear to produce enough foods to avert continued imports. This is especially The 2010 harvest produced a fairly good crop, albeit with true regarding wheat, where production is projected to "the usual" regional variations whereby the sandy and have plunged in 2010 to an all-time low of 8,000 tonnes, drier low-lying lands to the south, west and north suffered far short of annual consumption of 250.000 tonnes. In con- below average harvests. Constraints to increased produ- trast to maize wheat is a second, winter crop dependent of ction were mainly lack of fertilizer, and more importantly, irrigation. Farmers are citing electricity shortages impeding the breakdown of the country's transport facilities have irrigation plus a massive loss of combine harvesters to seriously impeded farmers' ability to acquire needed inputs theft41 as chief reasons. In addition, the expected harvest and hampered farmers with surplus production to bring is likely to be of poor quality due to the lack of combine this to market and thereby acquire cash. harvesters. At its peak, Zimbabwe produced 365,000 ton- nes of wheat annually.42 Consequently, cash is still a very scarce commodity in rural areas. Bartering is widespread. Once again, contrary to conventional thinking, this might not necessarily be to the disadvantage of farmers. A study undertaken by Concern calculated that at the basis of the barter exchange were fair prices for goods 'sold' and goods/services received. In addition, the study found that farmers were not necessarily s. 15 KEY POLITICAL ACTORS AND STRATEGIES 3 3.1. ZANu-PF: heartland in the three Mashonaland provinces, often by DETERMINED, POWERFuL AND VuLNERABLE violent or intimidating means. The party's strength lies in its control over all important 4. Courting specific target groups, notably churches, lately levers on society: The security apparatus, including the also the urban youth to gain voters. police, the armed forces, the intelligence organisations, the For several years the party has embarked on a veri- attorney generals, the courts and the jails - and the civil table campaign for it to 1) have allies gaining control service. The latter has a profound effect, even on MDC's over established churches - this has led to a vicious ability to execute its coveted service delivery: Zanu-PF has struggle for power within the Anglican Church and a appointed from its ranks every permanent secretary, most less overt one within the Catholic church as Zanu-PF of the staff in the ministries, all governors, district and ward allied individuals have ousted or sidelined leaders per- administrators etc. The same applies to all independent ceived not to support the party, and 2) courting the vast commissions. At all levels, instructions from the party will amount of apostolic congregations. They are likely the override any other order. single largest group of worshippers; they are generally advocating very conservative and authoritarian views; Zanu-PF is aware of its poor voter backing but has pre- they are attracting the poorest and least educated mas- sently no intention of transferring any meaningful power to ses. During 2010 the party embarked on a campaign to MDC, neither fully in an election nor partially in the IG. It is attract similarly less educated parts of the urban youth, utilising its tactical strength, its organisational force and its using its Government mechanisms to bring in interna- hold on the key state and security levers to deny MDC any tional pop stars, producing popular TV-shows and lately such transfer, regardless of provisions in the GPA. by enrolling into its campaign the country's popular representative in the TV-reality show Big Brother Africa. The party is ultimately weakened by SADC's decision to 5. The party is extending its patronage system to MDC force it into the IG thereby implying that Mugabe is not members elected to public office, notably town a fully legitimate president in spite of him having "won" and rural council members, corruption them by typically the June 2008-elections. Conscious of the fact that it will diverting public building plots and land to them. have to seek legitimacy by winning the next elections, it is rebuilding its ability to be seen to win this legitimately and In executing these strategies, Zanu-PF has to strike several to deny MDC the same opportunity. delicate balances: • Zanu-PF needs time to rebuild its power base in the It applies five key tactics: country and to corrupt MDC officials in order to reduce 1. Diverting MDC-T attention and energies that party's voter attraction. However, the longer time by keeping it occupied with other issues, such as the GPA is running, the better MDC ministers will assert defending MP's, ministers and allies in court against their will over the civil service and the more reforms they criminal charges; endless negotiations on petty issues might succeed in pushing through - most importantly pertaining to implementation of GPA details; service mechanisms to ensure free and fair elections. In this delivery to the populace; soothing foreign investors and race against the clock for Zanu-PF, several factors com- governments important to MDC's promise to deliver plicate its position: The president's age and deteriora- improved livelihoods to its voters. ting health43, the growing factional divisions in the party, 2. Frustrating MDC-T Zanu-PF officials' reluctance to relinquish their lucrative in the hope that it will withdraw from the IG. posts for an uncertain future after elections, the party's 3. Reasserting its control over rural constituencies, reduced ability to extend patronage under dollarisation notably Manicaland province and the ethnic shona and Biti's control over public finances and - perhaps - a s. 16 growing willingness amongst the people to challenge in doing so repeatedly closed any debate on the succes- Zanu-PF's authority as they see leading members of sion issue. While he has tended to side with Mnangagwa MDC being able to do so. in dealings with the MDC-T, he has mostly favoured the Mujurus in internal ZANU-PF decisions45. • In prolonging the implementation of the GPA or in outright breaching it, the party is keen to avoid provo- In addition, a division has also to be made between the po- king SADC into taking action against it. Zanu-PF has a litical and the armed side of the party. Though the security long-standing positive relationship with leading SADC arm is highly influential, it remains behind the scene - and member and is keen to retain this useful tool in dealing in the field when party "discipline" is meted out to mem- with MDC-T. It consequently has probed how far it can bers and the public alike - and it is not likely that Mugabe go without inviting a SADC reaction. During the past 20 will want his eventual successor to be drawn from the months it has incrementally increased its provocations ranks of the army, police, etc. as a consequence of his towards MDC-T as SADC failed to react to the pre- keenness on elected legitimacy. He will want a "politician". vious ones. Zanu-PF has not as yet reached the level of provocations towards MDC-T whereby SADC has As factions have seen their space to manoeuvre diminish reacted. Latest it reneged on its obligation to share the after implementation of the GPA and as the flow of funds posts of provincial governors before sanctions are lifted, available in the patronage system decreased after dollari- only two weeks after confirming such an agreement to sation, Zanu-PF factional fights intensified. In all provinces the SADC summit in Windhoek. As this once again did even small and seemingly insignificant spats over seats not lead to any reaction from SADC, Mugabe boldly or positions can erupt into violent fights as higher-ranking increased his provocations towards MDC-T by unilate- officials are called in to assert this or the other camp's rally appointing the governors and confirming that he influence. had no intention of ever fulfilling his obligation to swear in MDC-T treasurer Roy Bennett as Deputy Agricultural It is likely that Mugabe, in trying to salvage the party he has Minister. Still more dramatic punishments of MDC-T built, from a devastating conflict resulting from one of these might be expected as elections draw closer, and as camps winning the succession strife, has prepared for a Zanu-PF continues to seek the limit - as it always has third person to take over after him. The scenario could the option of retracting its actions if SADC finally raps its unfold as follows: After winning his desired snap election fingers. In addition, Mugabe ultimately has the option of next year, and thereby relegating MDC to the wilderness telling SADC "to go to Hell", as is his habitual dismissal for a further five years (in which it must be expected that of Western countries and institutions. He is conscious Tsvangirai will be ousted and further leadership wrangles that he has the backing of the African Union and he and will weaken the party), a possible Mugabe strategy could the party is skilfully maintaining and expanding their sta- be to abdicate and impose this 'third man' on the party as tus as African liberators. He might however get to learn his successor - in the process ensuring his own and other of a crucial limit for SADC-leaders' patience, which, if vulnerable top-officials of protection and reorienting the transgressed by Zanu-PF, will embarrass them to such party for yet another long run at the helm of the country.46 a degree, that they enter into actions that could run contrary to Zanu-PF's immediate interests. 3.2 MDC-T, TROuBLED REFORMERS In spite of its appearance of a galvanized monolith, Zanu- MDC-T entered into the GPA partly because SADC leaned PF is wracked by internal divisions. Two main camps are heavily upon it to do so, partly out of the calculation that battling for control of party structures and national wealth, given Zanu-PF's control over the security apparatus, and both with their long-term sights on winning the looming its willingness to use it ruthlessly, the party would be better succession battle of replacing the 86-year old leader. Divi- positioned to effect change from inside rather than outside sions amongst the two camps run along a diversity of fault Government. lines in Zimbabwe's ethnic, regional, commercial and poli- tical landscape.44 In general, one camp around vice-presi- Events have so far proved them right. The breathing dent Joyce Mujuru (and her husband, prominent liberation space was established. Repression has diminished, some war veteran and former supreme armed forces comman- reforms, notably in the economic field have been executed, der, Solomon Mujuru) control most of the remaining grass- and hope still exists for further democratic reform. root support in the dominant Shona ethnic group. The other camp centres around the apparently equally influen- Since the formation of the Inclusive Government MDC has tial Minister of Defence, Emmerson Mnangagwa. His allies seen service delivery as an important political strategy to control most of the state bureaucracy and is asserting prove to the people of Zimbabwe that it 1) is capable of influence over the Karanga group in mainly the Midlands improving people's lives and 2) is fit to govern. and Masvingo provinces. Both have allies in the armed forces, though Solomon Mujuru's powerful successor, De- "You now know what your party can do ever since we got fence Forces Commander General Constantine Chiwenga into the inclusive government in 2009. The schools and is believed to be backing Mnangagwa. hospitals were not working but the MDC has managed to breathe new life into all that," Mugabe has skilfully played off these factions against each other in order to maintain his grip on the divided party and Finance Minister Tendai Biti recently told a voters' meeting.47 s. 17 Foto: Tine Harden As noted earlier, as the party concentrated on delivering army or rampaging Zanu-PF youths. To the public, and service it appears to have underestimated the reality of especially to the victims, it appears as if the leadership is power politics. MDC-T has been lacking in taking political insensitive to their sufferings. initiatives and has rather been re-active to Zanu-PF initia- tives. For a party whose slogan is chinja! - "change" - this 2. The Sanctions Issue has been a dangerous course. As the year went by, a gro- In January Zanu-PF launched a fervent strategy to weaken wing number of supporters felt deserted or even dismissive the MDC through a vigorous campaign against sanctions, towards their party's chance of ever achieving its goals. claiming that Western sanctions are the cause of the coun- try's misery and that MDC is in gross breach of the GPA by A number of key contestations during 2010 will illustrate not having ensured that the sanctions are lifted. Mugabe the point vowed not to yield any ground to MDC before sanctions are removed. To date, he has kept to his word. 1. Farm invasions, violence and intimidation Preparations for the Zanu-PF 5-yearly conference in Reeling from this barrage of criticism, MDC-T found itself December 2009 sucked much energy out of the party as unable to respond convincingly - neither to the impossible factions and camps jockeyed for position. In November demand that they remove sanctions imposed by foreign and December, MDC seemed to be gaining influence week countries nor to the intransigent position of their opponent. by week. But hardly had the conference ended before the Mugabe used the issue to skilfully strengthen his SADC party returned to the national scene with a vengeance: and wider African platform, playing on African leaders' Countrywide white-owned farms were invaded and owners feelings of the continent continually being short-changed forced out, often violently and in contravention of court by the Western world and consequently being against any orders. MDC-T protested in Harare, but otherwise watched form of sanctions applied to any African, indeed any Third helplessly as this happened on the ground. As the year World, country. MDC looked on, seemingly helplessly lost went on, it eventually stopped reacting publicly. Whether for answers; eventually, as the party joined the chorus out of tactical reasons for not wishing to be seen protec- demanding sanctions lifted, they seemed either meek ting whites or realising it had no means of influencing the or insincere. By August, Mugabe had gathered so much invasions, it appeared not to be a caring party. support for his argument that a SADC summit passed a resolution stating that the sanctions are hurting the entire Similarly, the PM and his party rarely react strongly in public SADC region's economy. or send messages in private to the increasing number of party faithful who fall victim to violent assaults from police, s. 18 African leaders are now united on the Zimbabwe issue. Not decided by committees according to branch of industry united in a call for reforms - but in the Mugabe-engineered and that it can be less than 51 per cent. Needless to say, call for sanctions to be removed. South African President Kasukuwere has stacked the committees with Zanu-PF Zuma on his September visit to Europe and USA in Sep- stalwarts and allies. tember urged leaders there to lift them. It was a win-win- win situation for Mugabe: Africa would have triumphed As the business community buzzed with anxiety, white if they were lifted. Africa was reconfirmed in its belief of business owners trembled with fear and rage and MDC being unfairly treated as Europe and America rejected their was left dazed and confused, Zanu-PF and Mugabe had demand. Africa once again looked at MDC and Tsvangirai once again created a platform from which they could only as being un-African, and Mugabe's notion that the party is win: The Act will enable the party leadership to once again merely a Western puppet was reinforced. confiscate valuable possessions to dole out to party faithful through its patronage system, as it did with the farms. It Sanctions has boomeranged for the donors to constitute immediately scared off the foreign investors leaving MDC a tactical advantage for Zanu-PF, as they use the issue to with egg in its face after having campaigned hard to de- shield them against discussing more real issues. Donors clare the country a safe investment. Finally, it has provi- are reluctantly facing the reality that the sanctions have not ded the party with a powerful populist message in direct led to their intended effect and likely never will - while at the continuation of the sanctions and notably the land issues: same time the issue is weakening MDC-T. That Africa is for Africans and that Mugabe is at the helm of a move to resurrect African pride and return to Africans 3. Indigenisation what is rightfully theirs49. Whilst most Zimbabweans are During the early part of 2010 MDC managed to persuade likely to see through this, it might still impress other African still more foreign companies to invest in the country's rich leaders sufficiently to ensure they will not risk being seen future, mainly in the potentially rich, but under-funded and as interfering with Mugabes election. underutilised mining sector, and in the manufacturing sec- tor too. Jobs would be created. During the 2009 Christmas 4. Commissions season Zanu-PF had watched shoppers perform impromp- While Mugabe and Zanu-PF has been careful to be seen to tu song-and-dance performances in Harare supermarkets respect its GPA obligations towards SADC, they have en- thanking Biti for having "brought the dollar", filling the sured that the talks have been much prolonged, frustrated shelves with goods. Biti was Father Christmas incarnated. - and ultimately resulting in no significant results. After a Zanu-PF realised that MDC would be credited with the new long delay the President moved to swear in members of jobs. Power politics came first. three independent committees required in the GPA, the Zimbabwean Electoral Committee (ZEC), the Zimbabwe In late 2007, shortly before parliament was dissolved in Media Committee (ZMC) and the Human Rights Com- preparation for the March 2008 elections, the then Zanu- mittee (HRC) - all chaired by men of good reputation for PF dominated assembly passed The Indigenisation And independence and integrity. Economic Empowerment Act. Purposing to empower black Zimbabweans this requires every non-African- On this issue too, MDC-T appear to have been outmano- owned company to transfer 51 per cent of it ownership to euvred as Zanu-PF ensured that the secretariat of these indigenous people, i.e. non-whites48. The law did however bodies were staffed mainly by party loyalists from the not have any legal consequences as necessary regulations former, not-so-independent commissions performing the were to be gazetted as a pre-requisite for this, and after similar tasks.50 Tsvangirai and MDC-T joined Government in 2009 they The ZMC has accredited journalists and licensed a few soothed local and foreign business people, that the law new newspapers, read almost exclusively by urbanites, was inconsequential as Government would never pass viewed by Zanu-PF as 'lost' anyway. However it has re- these regulations. mained unbowed in its resistance to open up the airwaves for private radio or TV-stations and is still firmly in control However, on Wednesday, February 10, the Prime Minister over Zimbabwe Broadcasting Corporation, the country's realised that the regulations had secretly been gazetted most important media - the rural areas' only media. by Zanu-PF's up-coming star, Youth and Indigenisation Minister Saviour Kasukuwere on Friday the week before. ZEC is hardly operating due to lack of funds . Tsvangirai furiously dismissed the regulations as they had neither been discussed nor agreed in Cabinet: "They were HRC too is seriously under-funded, is not mandated to published without due process as detailed in the GPA deal with cases from before the implementation of the IG and the Constitution and they are therefore null and void". and anyway, it will only be proper operational when the Smarting from this dramatically humiliating demonstration committee's tasks are defined in an act, which has yet to of his political impotency in a crucial matter, he however be presented in Parliament. has had to realise that in the world of dirty power-politics, a gazetted law and its regulations is in force. As MDC 5. Outstanding issues committed the tactical error of not fighting the Act as such, Throughout the life of the coalition government MDC-T only the regulations, the Act is still on the books. All MDC-T has been without reach of extracting any concessions on has achieved in this regard is to alter a few details, most these. Zanu-PF understands well that facts on the ground importantly that the black ownership of companies will be are difficult to eliminate, and it moves accordingly. s. 19 6. Corrupting MDC MDC-T seems to have overlooked that to its urban voters The party is mainly backed by voters in Matabeleland, but "delivering services" is not exclusively the responsibility after the re-establishment of this region's formerly dominant for ministers in Harare, but it is equally the actions of their party, ZAPU, opinion polls suggest that MDC-M stands local city councillors. Two shrewd Zanu-PF initiatives have very little chance of gaining any seats of consequence in seriously impeded this. Foreseeing that the party would Parliament55 at the next election. Ncube himself failed to lose most town councils to MDC, from 2000 onwards, win a seat in the 2008-elections and has had to mano- Zanu-PF has gradually transferred still more control over euvre vigorously in order to be appointed minister and the municipal administration from the local councils to the thus gain access to the above-mentioned official positions. Ministry of Local Government under party veteran Ignatius Recently, the party has seen a raft of defections to MDC-T Chombo. Whenever MDC-led councils attempt to counter and ZAPU. Zanu-PF directives, the minister annuls these. Another tactics applied by the minister is to supplement an MDC- MDC-M has especially managed to assert influence over dominated council with so-called "special interest council- the Constitution-Making Process as its representative, lors", appointed directly by him. Professor Ncube is part of the Management Committee, which is tasked with overseeing the process. Even though In what appears to be a pattern, council clerks53 have in the process is supposedly run by Copac, the Management many towns succeeded in corrupting the newly elected Committees' most powerful members56, The Negotiators, and often inexperienced MDC councillors by offering has united across party lines to subordinate Copac to its them building plots, so-called stands, in commercial or will. And in the group, the Professor apparently often gets residential areas, or by allocating them precious stands the last word. He is reportedly a skilful negotiator and a in market places. In one sleepy rural town, each of the fearless enforcer of his will. eight councillors, all MDC-T, have each taken control of 30 stands and are busy reselling them. "We are not voting for MDC-M has increasingly sided with Mugabe. In August them next time," a citizen of Masvingo deeply involved in 2010 Mutambara wrote the SADC special representative local and MDC-T politics recently stated after recounting on Zimbabwe, South African President Jacob Zuma, to how every single MDC-T member of the council corruptly inform him that The Principals had agreed to appoint pro- have acquired attractive commercial or residential stands. vincial governors only when Western sanctions were remo- MDC has been very slow in reacting to this trend but did in ved. This not only ran contrary to the parties' agreement February 2010 dismiss the entire council in the vast Harare presented at the SADC summit in Windhoek shortly after, high-density suburb Chitungwiza, the country's largest but served to reinforce Zanu-PF's crucial hard-line stance council, for graft. The following day, Chombo refused to on the sanctions issue. Tsvangirai furiously informed Zuma remove the councillors and they are still occupying their that Mutambara's claim was false. In October, following seats as independents. Tsvangirai's actions over Mugabes unilateral appointment of governors and ambassadors, Mutambara once again 3.2.1. NEW DETERMINATION? sided with Mugabe and told Parliament that Tsvangirai was Tsvangirai and MDC-T's position has been likened to that "ill-advised" in his position57. of a battered wife who remains with her violent husband, as the children are still in the house - working on a lasting The party will most likely seek to increase its influence by solution while her husband continue abusing hr. following two distinct tactics: On this background it remains to be seen whether Tsvangi- 1. Prolong the life of the IG as long as possibly in order to rai's hard-line stand of October 7 will be reflected in action avoid any scrutiny by voters before the party or its asserting MDT-T towards Zanu-PF. It should be noted that leaders has repositioned in Zimbabwe's political the action apparently spurred Mugabe into re-acting by his landscape. "An election now will not result in proper rapidly following blitz for early elections. Tsvangirai quickly change but divide the nation and undo the gains so far," declared that he, too, is ready for early elections. Influential General-Secretary Welshman Ncube pointed out in an interview shortly after Mugabe in One development to watch is whether the MDC-T minister October demanded the June-2011 elections. Whereas for Constitutional and Parliamentary Affairs make a serious the party has no say over the calling of elections, Ncube attempt at taking control over the referendum over the on is in a strong position to ensure that Copac sticks draft constitution and in doing so by implication also over closely to its prescribed course whatever time this the Voters' Roll etc. might take. 2. In extension of this the party will seek to position itself 3.3. MDC-M: A MOuSE THAT ROARS as king-maker, or at least as an unavoidable facilitator Due to suspension of three MPs, the party's parliamentary between Mugabe and Tsvangirai in order to extract for representation was by November 2010 down to only 7 se- itself as much immediate and future leverage as ats. MDC-M has however managed to ascertain a certain possible. Ncube has already initiated this process by political influence due to its status as equal signatory to the re-writing history in claiming that "we were the unifying GPA and its leader's consequent position as deputy PM. factor [in creating the GPA]. We brought Tsvangirai and As such, party leader Mutambara has toured the world, Mugabe together to the negotiating table under harsh influenced SADC partners and occasionally opened doors conditions."58 for President Mugabe54. s. 20 3.4 ELECTIONS? at the party conference in early 2011. By doing so, he will Will there be elections in mid-2011? Mugabe might find consequently be conferred the prestigious post of deputy himself in a position where he will be forced to retreat prime minister and ascend to the coveted third place in the from his demand unless he engineers a breakdown of leadership of the country, next to Mugabe and Tsvangirai. the GPA. Several solid obstacles stand in his way to early He asserts considerable influence over Copac as the most elections, not least the GPA's requirement of the writing influential member of the Management Committee respon- and implementation of a new constitution. Only days sible for all policy issues pertaining the CMP. before Mugabe's declaration, Copac, the parliamentary select committee responsible for the Constitution-Making Calling an election is initiated by dissolving Parliament61 Process, estimated that the necessary referendum on - and without the Parliament, the new constitution can- the constitution would take place at the earliest in July not be legally processed. The implementation of a new 2011. Given the fact that Copac has a solid record of not constitution is the centrepiece of the GPA, and the parties delivering any of its public actions on time, this seemed to the agreement will likely be reluctant to ask for SADC's an optimistic estimate, with the referendum more likely backing to scrap this and head straight for elections under being undertaken in September or October (Mugabe has the present constitution. expressed his desire for a referendum in March). Indeed, one very significant party representative in the process, the In defending the CMP and the GPA Ncube can be a formi- MDC-M's General-Secretary, Professor Welshman Ncube, dable challenge for Mugabe. At the same time, there is no even suggested that the proposed text would be ready love lost between Ncube and his former party president, only by the end of 2011. Morgan Tsvangirai. MDC-T courted in September MDC-M with an invitation to re-uniting, but this immediately rebuf- In addition to this is the contentious issue of restoration fed by Ncube. of the Voters' Roll. It might well be argued by MDC that this should be completed before the referendum, and the Finally, holding elections is costly and MDC-T controls the commission stated in July that it would need a year to Government coffers. Finance Minister Biti has revealed that clean up the roll, which is "in shambles."59 Confirming the Mugabe has ordered him to allocate sufficient funds for the need to restore this roll, in November 2010, ZEC chairman CMP referendum and elections in the 2011-budget. Biti Simpson Mutambanengwe indicated that with the allo- has stated that the cost of this is US$ 200 million, which cation of sufficient funds a voters' roll that "is acceptable the Government do not have, and that he fears that elec- and that satisfies all stakeholders" could be restored for tions in 2011 will destroy the economic recovery he has 2011 elections. He did however assert the authority of ZEC worked so hard to bring about. Both are indications that he over politicians by adding that "… whether conditions are will go to great lengths in hindering early elections. conducive … can only be determined by ZEC."60 Finally, it is known that the political wing of Zanu-PF is There is reason to dwell a bit on Professor Ncube, as he is overwhelmingly against early elections, notably the party's one of Zimbabwe's most skilled politicians. His reasons for Politburo62. There are however a number of signs that the interjection could be interpreted as being less concer- the security wing is actively preparing for the campaign: ned with the mechanics of constitution-making and more In October, Brigadier-General Douglas Nyikayaramba, with the fact that his party is likely to be virtually wiped out widely understood to have been in charge of the violent in a forthcoming elections. Neither he nor his party is in campaign during the run-up to the June 2008 elections, a hurry for such elections. Ncube is mounting a credible summoned 200 traditional leaders to a weekend workshop campaign to replace party president Arthur Mutambara at Brigade barracks in Mutare instructing them how to block MDC from holding meetings; army personnel have been deployed to rural areas in the Midland and Masvingo Foto: Tine Harden provinces; media and human rights groups are reporting an upsurge in politically instigated violence63; CIO has during October on several occasions moved to confiscate donated portable radios (which could be used to listen to alternative radio stations broadcasting on shortwave, such as the VOA's Radio 7 and the London-based SWRadio)64. The only viable argument for believing that elections will eventually take place as wanted by Mugabe is - that he wants it. This might however be sufficient. One possible strategy for Mugabe could be for Zanu-PF to pull out of the Inclusive Government and terminating the GPA65 (perhaps in a deal with MDC-M). After this there will likely be no other way to terminate the ensuing impasse than through elections (under the prevailing constitution) - no matter how poorly prepared these might be. SADC will be hard pressed to find a robust response to such realities on the ground. s. 21 CIVIL SOCIETY 4 Foto: Tine Harden There is no popular tradition for Zimbabweans to band Only slowly began some of these organisations to wrest together in independently formed organisations. Conse- themselves free from the parties' dominance, notably the quently, there is no solid tradition for civil society organi- trade unions. Later, in the 1990'ies, rights-based organisa- sations in Zimbabwe - with churches and trade unions as tions were established, followed by a plethora of diverse, notable exceptions. independent organisations or locally established branches of international NGOs. Today, Zimbabwe is host to a mag- Before independence, the white regime would ban or nificent number of NGOs and CSOs. harass black-dominated organisations. With the advance of nationalist movements these tended to subordinate any A large number of these have certain national charac- other organisation in the name of unity. As these move- teristics. Perhaps due to Zimbabwe's high standard of edu- ments took power in 1980, they continued to dominate cation and fine tradition in civil service, many CSOs tend even ostensibly non-political movements - from Zimbabwe to have adopted governmental attitudes guiding their work National Traditional Healers' Organisation over the Council and their mode of operation. Their leaders are university- of Churches to Zimbabwe Congress of Trade Unions. educated for government work or they have been recruited s. 22 Foto: Tine Harden directly from Government. Many organisations are conse- mation, mainly by disseminating information from the orga- quently fairly elitist, top-managed and often rather bu- nisation's top and secondly by gathering information for the reaucratic in approach to even outright political issues. This organisation's head quarters. They are rarely autonomous has undoubtedly aided many NGOs and CSO in becoming local leaders linked to a national network. efficient service providers. Great work is being done in the Zimbabwean CSOs. The approach does however seem Once again, the main exceptions are churches and labour to hamper them in approaching rights-based issues and unions. The latter have suffered a great loss by their in assisting ordinary people in their quest to improve their leadership having emigrated to form MDC. Following this, lives. "They prefer to be watchdogs filing reports, not at- the economic downturn, the loss of educated citizens to tack dogs fighting repression" as one experienced NGO of- mass-emigration and the devastation of the farm-working ficial says of his colleagues. This is of course understanda- community (farm-workers constituted Zimbabwe's second- ble - a dog that bites risks being kicked or even put down, largest union) have robbed the labour movement of hund- if it does not protect itself well, for instance by moving in a reds of thousands of members and further eroded its ability large pack. to project influence. Once again, union members might be The governmental approach is reflected in the attitude of rural, but their membership affiliation is in general to the many leaders of Zimbabwean CSOs towards their mem- centrally based organisation, not to a local one. Teachers' bers and the public. They often refer to these as someone unions are exceptions to this, all three have moved closer they should educate rather than someone to take guidance since the formation of the IG in order to better advance from in representing them - and in doing so building pro- teachers' causes, and promoting good education. tection. During the 1990'ies, a number of smaller rural groups Compounding this is the fact that only a small proportion of was however established. As they started asserting their the vast amount of Zimbabwean CSOs are membership- members interests, this was often felt as challenging Zanu- based. In addition, the majority is rooted in urban areas, PF positions and structures. Consequently, during the late notably Harare. Even after several decades of realising 1990'ies, the Zanu-PF leadership by co-opting traditional that the political power in Zimbabwe mainly rests in the leaders and by creating administrative structures that exert rural areas and that the rural areas are host to the majority great influence over life in the rural areas raised serious of people needing the largest improvement in livelihood, obstacles to block the rise of rural CSOs. They assert tight the rural areas are practically nude of locally implanted control over national NGOs involved locally, whether for or - connected CSOs. Some watchdog organisations food aid or any other purpose, exercising power politics might have local representatives in rural areas, the umbrella over any other policy. "They only way in is via very political National Association of NGOs has so in each district, but it issues that really attract people," says an observer. appears that their task is mainly that as of conduits of infor- s. 23 Given this background, the Zimbabwean CSOs' response "Well, how could they have moved into rural areas?" adds to the GPA might be better understood: The large num- another CSO executive - "they are deep down in their ber of CSOs previously occupied with issues pertaining souls urban and they are not membership-based." In ad- to health, education, governance, finance, business, etc., dition, past experiences and the tight administrative control even rights and residents' issues, are feeling disoriented as over rural areas seemed to have shied away the CSOs MDC ministers have taken over their role of articulating and from rural engagement. As "they only way in is via very even acting on these issues. "There is a certain sense that political issues that really attract people," perhaps constitu- things are now working again," says one CSO executive. tional issues would have been such issues, but once again, These CSOs consequently feel "emptied" of tasks. They the governmental attitude did not facilitate this approach. even shy away from upholding their traditional role of criticising Government as this is now represented by their The CSO CMP flagship was the establishment of a moni- usual allies; they fear weakening their own short-term goals toring mechanism, ZZICOMP, a standard watchdog body in doing so. tasked with following the outreach program and report on violations of citizens' right to express themselves freely. In Consequently, the CSOs which come out as those faring a knee-jerk reaction, local authorities and even the Copac best under the GPA are the Human Rights watchdog leadership initially sought to bar the monitors from fulfilling organisations, as Zanu-PF has ensured that their workload this role, but later accepted them after having demanded has not diminished significantly. They continue to do their their accreditation with Copac. "We won a small victory excellent work, perhaps even spurred on cautions and by having Copac accepting the ZZICOMP observers, but critical attitude to the GPA and the IG. there were too many violations" says a CSO executive. As a result, the violations were recorded, not sought to be Other NGOs have concentrated on service delivery on stopped. And as a further result, the field was left open for the basis of foreign funding, relieving Government of its Zanu-PF to re-assert its authority. obligations to deliver water, health, etc. Many shy away from combining this with advocating policy or governance 4.1 THE AFRICAN EXAMPLES issues - perhaps feeling a certain relief in concentrating There are a number of interesting similarities between the on uncontroversial and immediately rewarding tasks after Zimbabwean struggle for democratic reforms and the years of confrontations with the regime. They are enjoying South African during the 1980'ies. In both countries what their breathing space. "And when our organisation keep appear as the vast majority of citizens is in conflict with the reminding them of the importance of these issues, there's a ruling regime over practically everything from democratic growing tendency to look at us disapprovingly as if saying rights to water delivery. 'don't you have anything else to do'?" laments one of the above-mentioned CSO executives. In round figures, 70 years after the formation of ANC and 25 years after the infamous Sharpeville incident, the CSO's approach to the CMP also appears more logical struggle for democracy in South Africa took a dramatic on this background. Given the objection to anything not upswing in the 1980'ies, which finally carried the effort to fully in compliance with the concept of a "people-driven" success. At the foundation of this was the formation all process, most CSO's were from the outset apprehensive of over South Africa of so-called "civic organisations", local the Copac process. Zanu-PF's disruption of the Stake- organisations rooted in local dissatisfaction with everyday holder Conference in July 2009 seemed to vindicate their issues: The unpaved township roads, the lack of street position that the process was seriously flawed. There was lamps, the cost of service charges, the arrogance of local only little discussion of whether a people-driven concept councillors, poor schools and abusive teachers, etc. Often was even tenable under the given political conditions and led by local mid-level-educated persons, teacher, social whatever was undertaken, it was inconsequential. Rather, workers, nurses etc., they rallied their neighbours around the apprehension led most SCOs to sort of 'forget about' these issues, exerting pressure on the local authorities, or ignore the CMP. As the organisation of the process ap- attaining improving local living conditions by winning these peared somewhat chaotic and certainly severely delayed, contests, increased their members' confidence in doing they seemed to distance themselves further from it - they so and grew reputations as genuinely representative of certainly did not react by investing much effort in assisting their local areas. Nobody paid them any per diems. They the process. Neither did they, as noted above, utilise the were biting local authorities but were (partly, admittedly) process to "educate" the rural and peri-urban population protected by their numbers. As these civic organisations on constitutional issues, in spite of their often stated inten- banded together in the United Democratic Front in 1983, a tion to do so, and in spite of the process opening up space formidable political force was created. for them here. Rather, they held dozens of meetings in the larger cities, mainly criticising and guarding themselves There are of course dissimilarities between Zimbabwe against the CMP. "We discussed the Copac talking points and South Africa - the regime was white, the local areas and trained people. This took place mainly in Harare. The building civic organisations were semi-urban towns, CSOs wrote their positions on constitutional issues," as communications in South Africa was better than in today's one CSO official recounts the organisations' response to Zimbabwe, etc. But still: Isn't there some very important the CMP. lessons to learn for Zimbabweans in this example? s. 24 Similarly, in Kenya, Ghana and Nigeria, CSOs have suc- dealt with long ago. One NGO executive says of this: "22 cessfully built local structures rallying people around their CSOs held a workshop in early 2009 to ascertain the livelihood issues and projected these into national politics implications of the GPA and the IG. We looked at scenarios in order to assist people to improve their lives. and agreed that the following would be likely: The CMP would be flawed. There would be no meaningful opening 4.2 DISORIENTATION of media space. Violence would continue on fluctuating "We used to work in close cooperation with movements", levels. Elections would come in mid-2011 as Zanu-PF had says one CSO executive. "But the workers', students', recovered its strength. Having reached this understanding constitutional and umbrella movements seems to have we agreed we should all aim our work towards ensuring disintegrated. We are left standing alone, struggling to re- that such elections could be as free and fair as possible. ignite our people, but fear is instilled in them." Then everybody went home and continued life as usual, and no serious actions were drawn from our conclusions." It is true that CSOs do not have easy working conditions. They have faced years of repression and intimidation. Consequently, Mugabe's October statement shocked Whenever any of their leaders attempt to seriously chal- and frightened civil society. Shortly after, representatives lenge authorities they face immediate repercussions. On of 50 leading CSOs held a two-day seminar to discuss the crucial diamond issue, CSOs involved in monitoring their response, convened by Zimbabwe Election Support violations in the diamond areas and informing international Network. The talks resulted in no less than 26 sharply NGOs on the issue, are closely monitored, even when ope- formulated demands for others to act66 - and a chillingly rating abroad. Farai Maguwu, director of the Mutare-based apathetic statement from Rindai Chipfunde-Vava, the Centre for Research and Development, was arrested in director of ZESN, on the impotency of Zimbabwe's leading June 2010 on allegations he passed false information on CSOs: "The most we can do is meet and discuss, despite rights violations in Chiadzwa to the Kimberley process these big fears for violence because our hands are tied. It monitor Abbey Chikane. Maguwu was detained for over a is very true we might analyze very good papers on the Zim- month. He was later freed on bail but ordered to reside at babwe situation, but in terms of the strategy and the way his Mutare residence. Charges against him were dropped forward, that becomes a problem because certain things in October 2010. are beyond our control". Chipfunde-Vava said nothing new was raised at the meeting ... "We are pointing those By his blitz for early elections, President Mugabe appe- loopholes, what needs to be done, it is very important. ars to have had profound impact on civil society, which As civic groups our basic function is to advocate, inform greeted the announcement with fears of another violent and educate and lobby for things to take place. In terms election. Harare-based NGOs are busying themselves with of whether those things take place or not is beyond our alarmist papers and workshops on the fears of violence means," she explained."67 and the listing of demands that authorities ought to have Foto: Tine Harden s. 25 THREATS TO REFORM 5 Within SADC and in Zanu-PF too, the need for any gover- and the electorate might even respond with increased sup- nment to win a majority of votes in elections is recognized port. Also, Zanu-PF regard Tsvangirai as incompetent and as a necessary pre-requisite for legitimately governing the will likely prefer him as manager of the party they have to country. No matter what, the contest for power in Zimbab- defeat in spite of his popular appeal. we will be leading to elections sooner or later. A massive campaign of blatant violence as in the run-up to 5.1. THREE DISTINCT THREATS the June elections is unlikely to be executed as this could Apart from the difficulties and trends identified above, three trigger SADC into actions resulting in for Zanu-PF unfore- major threats to democratic reforms can be identified. seen consequences. However, its security chiefs are no 1. The perception in Zanu-PF that the party has an strangers to a steady campaign of less conspicuous acts undeniable right to rule the country. of intimidation and violence and indeed, to this day SADC 2. A further reluctance to relinquish power amongst has had ample evidence presented to it to act on such higher-ranking officials, including the security wing, violations during the life of the IG - without ever warning or aware of their vulnerability towards criminal prosecution protesting against it. should their present shield of impunity be lost. This most likely include most of the party leadership, Tsvangirai has repeatedly stated that he wants "peace- including many officials all the way down to district and keepers" in the country for the elections. It is unimaginable even ward level. that Zanu-PF will accept any other substantial international 3. Corruption of MDC officials. body playing a role in the elections apart from SADC and AU. It is equally unimaginable that the party will accept any There is every reason to take dead seriously remarks such armed foreign contingent, and Tsvangirai's claim must be as Mutasa's: "ZANU PF will never hand over power to interpreted as either a bargaining chip or posturing. MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai, even if he wins next year's elections ... If we go to the polls and he defeats Mugabe, Impunity for the Zanu-PF leadership, notably security ZANU PF and the people of Zimbabwe will not allow that", chiefs, in case the party should lose, will be key to a transi- quoted above. There are undoubtedly very influential and tion of power. For a detailed discussion of this, please see able people ready to execute such a strategy. However, last year's report, "Breathing Space - Zimbabwe's golden given SADC guarantees for transfer of power in the case of opportunity for reform?" at www.ms.dk/sw144745.asp, a Zanu-PF defeat the above scenario will require assas- notably "Scenario 2" and the section titled The military is sinations or a military coup. Neither the legitimacy-seeking both lock and key, as the general conditions remain un- Mugabe nor SADC is likely to accept this - though rogue changed and conclusions are still valid - notably that fact that elements could operate on their own. Much will depend on the MDC's ability to win sufficient con- However, long before the nation reaches this stage, dirty fidence amongst the most powerful dozen of armed forces tricks could be played on MDC-T in order to obstruct its leaders to initiate dialogue. ability to fight elections successfully. MP's could be ar- rested and jailed in order to rob the party of the ability to Any transitional measures or guarantees to be offered will introduce reforms. Likewise ministers, notably a key person be settled through closeted negotiations with these. As like Tendai Biti. Governments come and go in most countries, any guaran- tee issued by other countries' leaders, even regional ones, Assassination of Tsvangirai would however not be sufficient is unlikely to be sufficiently efficient for these Zimbabweans to ward off a MDC-T victory; other leaders would take over seeking impunity. Rather a more stable and influential re- s. 26 gional entity such as South Africa's ANC will be able to act Some donors have privately mooted a view that in real- as a crucial intermediary. politik bargaining, everybody must give and take, and they suggest that to spur Zanu-PF on to a more reform-minded It is equally a possibility, as mentioned in last year's report, policy, some sanctions could be lifted as an inducement. that the outcome in case of an MDC-T victory will be yet Zimbabwean CSOs in general scoff at this, characterising another SADC-enforced coalition government, this time such an approach as naive given Zanu-PF's attitude to with MDC-T in the driver's seat, but with Zanu-PF in control power politics. of key security posts, as this is the only ultimate guarantee the security chiefs risking prosecution and their allies can What is however clear is the fact that they are a vehicle obtain. for dialogue with Zanu-PF. Its leaders might boast of their friends in Iran, North Korea, Sudan and China, but privately SADC is under-funded and international donors could they long for visiting Europe and USA and being able to play a role in assisting the alliance to mount a substantial send their children to these continents' prestigious univer- monitoring machine. In addition, SADC election obser- sities. vation regulations allow for unarmed police officers to be seconded to such an operation, perhaps adding robust One model suggested is to link a time-limited suspension people to the contingent - this is likely the most Tsvangirai to concrete steps ensuring a free and fair election and the can hope for in the field of robust foreign interventions to necessary consequences of this - and doing this through guarantee a free and fair contest. Apart from that, that SADC. With for instance President Zuma as an interme- stark reality is that Zimbabweans in this respect are likely to diary, he could claim the credit for such a move while the remain dependent on nobody but themselves. EU would save face by not been seen as giving in directly to Zanu-PF but by achieving results from its dialogue with The apparently easy corrupting of some MDC officials is SADC. deeply worrying. So far, no one in the party's top leadership has been exposed as having succumbed to such practi- 5.3 THE THREATS TO NGOS ces. Zimbabweans are debating whether this because it is Zimbabwean NGOs are no strangers to intimidation and not happening - or because it is not being exposed? harassment, and in addition it should be noted that the infamous NGO Bill of 2004 banning foreign funding for As long as the party is only moving slowly to contain it, NGOs has not been enforced, but could be any time. corrupt practices risk becoming accepted: In September 2010 a group of MDC-T youths involved in internal factio- In line with this, the US-funded Famine Early Warning nal party strife attacked and severely tortured staff at the System Network (FEWSNET) in early November 2010 party's head quarters in Harare. The leadership sought to warned that the Government could block humanitarian hide the atrocities from the public., and the case only came support for the hungry and other marginalised groups as to light as the victims sought refuge at a torture victim campaigning for polls gathers momentum . centre in town. Even then, the party leadership was slow in reacting to the outrage, reportedly only doing so after key donors cut of funding for party-affiliated activities. Government salaries, even for ministers, are paltry, and the top officials are forced to live on either their own means acquired from personal businesses or allocations from friends and donors (plus lucrative per diems during their conspicuously frequent travels). This creates an environ- ment conducive to corruption. 5.2 SANCTIONS As demonstrated, the sanctions have not achieved their intended goal of forcing Zanu-PF to restrain from violations of human rights etc. At the most, they are a minor nui- sance to the individuals targeted. On the contrary, the party has deftly transformed the issue of sanctions to its own benefit, and they might consequently presently be judged as threats to reform. Zimbabwean CSOs are adamant sanctions must stay in place as the conditions leading to their imposition have not changed in substance. CSOs have not however had any thorough discussion on this issue and the expressed viewpoint is neither the product of specific analysis nor a determined dialogue on how the present impasse on the issue can be resolved. s. 27 RECOMMENDATIONS 6 The situation in Zimbabwe remains fluid and highly volatile. Recommendations to donors and INGOs In the coming months the country will balance on a knife's edge and risks are high that it will descend to yet another 1. Long-term, coordinated support to NGO projects lost decade of strife and economic rot. Therefore civil society and donors alike must consider carefully their next steps. During the last decade most foreign donors have not sup- ported the Government of Zimbabwe directly but have had Challenges faced by civil society their development projects implemented through NGOs. Mechanisms for geographical and thematic coordination Deepening roots in Zimbabwe and strengthen national, and division of tasks have been inadequate. Funding regional and international alliances has been short-term and this has promoted a short term project approach that has greatly hampered long term stra- 1. Civil society needs to coordinate better among tegic outreach work. themselves and needs to go beyond city based work- shops and trainings and reach out to a critical mass of • Donors/INGOs need to coordinate support to rural based citizens. In this regard it will be important to NGOs in cooperation with NANGO and should reach out to and support social movements and local provide multi year predictable funding to NGOs. CBOs and to seek to develop more democratic and membership based constituencies. • Funding should enable and ensure greater outreach and interaction with the rural population 2. Civil society needs to continue its pressure for full and support to social movements and CBOs. implementation of the Global Political Agreement. The agreement on a new democratic constitution is of pa- • Donors/INGOs should support the creation of ramount importance and real press freedom (including linkages between Zimbabwean NGOs and NGOs local radio licensing) is a fundamental prerequisite for a in neighbouring countries and should support democratic debate. national and international campaign work. 3. Civil society should move to a more campaign 2. Critical engagement with the Government based approach mobilising large constituencies in the of Zimbabwe struggle for democracy. Over the past year there has been a tendency that inter- 4. Zimbabwe's civil society should seek ways of national donors have decreased its pressure on SADC to forging solidarity ties with regional CSO partners to that engage and its own critical dialogue and engagement with may lobby their governments to influence Zimbabwe's the Government in Zimbabwe. More emphasis has been ruling parties. CSOs in Zimbabwe should learn from and put on the practical development support. The current draw upon the successful international campaign for situation, however, calls for a return to a more active enga- anti apartheid and democracy in South Africa. gement with SADC and stakeholders in Zimbabwe. 5. In the immediate future civil society can play an With strong African backing for re-engagement with the immensely important role in campaigning for the urgent Government of Zimbabwe and for lifting of sanctions it is implementation of electoral reform and for forging obvious that some kind of movement on the issue could national, regional and international ties to strengthen the be utilised for gaining advances. Donors should use the possibility of a peaceful transfer of power should MDC lifting of sanctions more actively and predictably in the win the elections. negotiations with SADC as an intermediary. This could be s. 28 done by having the donor community agreeing on which 3. Engagement of SADC and AU in the implementation steps they would be ready to take if particular key outstan- of the GPA, the constitution making process and free ding elements of the GPA are implemented. Examples of and fair elections such an approach could be: It is imperative that any move towards elections in Zim- • Donors to do a suspension of travel bans on babwe once and for all will ensure that the people will vote restricted persons when all Zimbabwean voters according to conviction. However, there are a number of have been registered and new voter's registration conditions that needs to be achieved before this can hap- list has been finalised. pen . • Donors to relieve some of the Government of Zimbabwe's debt when media reforms such • Donors should support the finalisation of the as opening up the air waves to private radio Constitutional Making Process. stations as well as proper democratic control over the existing public broadcaster and • Donors should support Zimbabwe Electoral publicly owned newspapers has been Commission, SADC and AU to ensure implemented. that guidelines for elections and election • Allowing Zimbabwe to export its diamonds when monitoring will be upheld and a detailed roadmap rights violations in diamond areas have been for free and fair elections is developed. halted and transparency in allocating contracts for extraction and dealing has been brought • Donors should assist regional bodies to ensure about. that no financial constraint should impede the • Donors to resume direct government-to- election preparations and that there are funds for government aid when a free and fair voter registration and voter education. Constitutional Referendum has been carried out. Foto: Tine Harden s. 29 A APPENDIX KEY CONCEPTS MDC confidante, Gideon Gono as Governor of the Reserve Bank and For this report MDC-M, and MDC-T will at times be referred to as of party stalwarth Johannes Tomana as Attorney General before one, MDC, indicating their original status as parties in opposition the swearing in of the IG. In addition, he has continuously excused to Zanu-PF. MDC-M split from the original MDC in 2005. The suf- himself of swearing in Roy Bennett, a white farmer, as deputy fix '-M' originates in its president A. Mutambara's surname. The agriculture minister. These and further MDC claims of Zanu-PF remaining part of MDC consequently was renamed MDC-T after non-compliance with the GPA, such as appointment of governors party president Morgan Tsvangirai. and ambassadors, was early termed "outstanding issues" to be solved in urgent negotiations. All are still outstanding. IPA/GPA The agreement under the auspicies of the regional cooperation The Negotiators body, SADC signed in august 2008 by Zimbabwe's principal Six influential personalities whose unofficial title is derived from political parties, MDC-T, Zanu-PF and MDC-M. Though popularly them having negotiated the details of the GPA. They are often know as the Global Political Agreement, GPA, its correct name is called in to represent their parties whenever hands-on trouble- the Inter-Party Agreement. It sets out the terms and modalities for shooters or managers of policy are needed. From Zanu-PF: a coalition government and the goals which this should achieve Patrick Chinamasa and Nicholas Goche, from MDC-T: Tendai Biti for the restoration of Zimbabwe after years of economic misma- and Elton Mangoma, from MDC-M: Welshman Ncube and Priscilla nagement and divisive political strife. It ascribes Executive and Misihairabwi-Mushonga. Most of them have for almost a decade Government posts and their powers and obligations to individuals been involved in negotiations representing their parties. The three and parties. Article 6, one of its most detailed, describe a Consti- influential lawyers Ncube, Chinamasa and Biti have long-standing tution-Making Process resulting in a new Constitution. Contrary to relationships, not only professionally, but also politically, as they claims, even by President Mugabe, the GPA has no expiry date have been involved in negotiating their party positions with each and is in principle valid until the terms of the President and MP's other for more than 10 years. expire in 2013. It is generally assumed that the implementation of a new constitution will be followed by the dissolution of Parliament CIO and the holding of parliamentary and presidential elections. Zanu- Central Intelligence Organisation; a police intelligence organisation PF delayed the implementation of the agreement until February operating with all Government institutions and represented at all 2009, when it was incorporated into the present constitution as levels of society. Apart from intelligence gathering, the CIO is re- Amendment no. 19 (though Zanu-PF managed to gazette only sponsible for countless violations of human rights as its members part of the agreement) after which the resulting Government was have been involved in abductions, torture and killings of Zanu-PF's sworn in on February 9, 2009. political adversaries. The force is believed to number about 15 - 20.000 employees and is placed under the command of minister The Principals of State Security, the discreet Sydney Sekeramayi. The triumvirate overseeing the implementation of the GPA and thus formally leading Zimbabwe, consisting of the heads of Zanu- JOC PF, MDC-T and MDC-M. The Principals are in principle meeting The Joint Operations' Command is the supreme organ for the co- every Monday to troubleshoot any implementation issues referred ordination of state security in Zimbabwe. It was established by the to them by lower political levels. The meetings have often been Rhodesian government and co-ordinated the counter-insurgency postponed for weeks as one or several of the principals were war during the 1970'ies, but retained its role in post-independence abroad or did not avail themselves for the consultation. This has Zimbabwe,. It has been claimed that during the past decade, "the been used as a tool to avoid such decision-making on imple- JOC has been behind the strategy of mentation, mainly by Zanu-PF to delay implementation of agreed repression to keep Mugabe and ZANU-PF in power. It is the reforms. instrument through which Mugabe has master-minded the rigging of elections and the continuing wave of violent farm seizures." It is Outstanding issues generally accepted that in the wake of the March 2008 presidential From the outset of the IG, Zanu-PF has been adamant not to re- election, the JOC took control of the day-to-day decision-making nege on Mugabe's unilateral appointment in late 2008 of his close of government, effectively operating as a military junta. Aware of s. 30 this the MDC had inscribed in the GPA a substitution of JOC by signed the GPA and consequently accepted its described process a National Security Council, headed by the President, seconded which NCA vehemently oppose, calling it a 'politician-driven' by the two MDC principals. However, the stiff resistance towards process. any concessions to MDC from the military leadership has resulted A 'people-driven' process as understood by the NCA has not in the council meeting only once. It is generally believed that JOC been utilised anywhere in the world, though popular consultations is still fully operating, presumably still under the command of the have been widely used in several constitutional revisions, lately Minister of Defence Emmerson Mnangagwa. with good results in Kenya. CMP, Constitution-Making Process Sanctions A detailed set of actions to result in a new constitution. Important In response to the flawed elections of 2002, the violent farm events in the process are: invasions and further violations of human rights, a number of 1. All-Stakeholder Conference embracing all important civil countries imposed sanctions on Zimbabwe. Most consequential society groups (held July 13-14, 2009 with app. 6,000 are the US and EU measures (which in this report will be broadly participants). referred to as "the sanctions"). Beginning in 2002 by prohibiting 2. Constituting Thematic committees responsible for drafting its member states to export arms to Zimbabwe, the EU later chapters of the constitution (17 is constituted, 30 expanded its sanctions to include so-called "restrictive measures" per cent of each committee's members are MPs and the rest against specific members of the Zanu-PF party leadership and are seconded from civil society). companies or parastatals they control plus key collaborators. The 3. Consultations/Outeach whereby ward-based meetings listed individuals had their assets in Europe frozen and are denied countrywide solicit the wishes and opinions of the populace access to EU territory, and EU member states, individuals and re a new constitution (the process has been completed with companies cannot do business with the listed companies. The app. 4,000 meetings held from June to October 2010 with the measures has since been expanded to include 203 individuals participation of app. a million citizens). and 40 companies (as per the latest adjustment in Februar 2010) . 4. Condensation of views on thematic issues by the thematic The US sanctions were introduced in 2003 and are similar 'smart' committees. sanctions targeting individuals and companies . None of the 5. Drafting - "translating" the thematic reports into constitutional sanctions include trade or financial sanctions as those imposed on articles. apartheid South Africa in the 1980'ies. 6. Second All-Stakeholders' Conference to adopt the draft con stitution - after which parliament will adopt it too. 2008-elections 7. Referendum - and if passed, the signing into power by the So-called 'harmonised' Presidential, Parliament and local council President (if rejected, the present constitution will remain elections took place on 29 March 2008, almost without violence in force). and intimidation. A number of new election regulations, mainly The process is guided by strict timeframes that has been drama- posting of election results at every voting station, had reduced tically exceeded. Whereas the process should have been finalised the possibility of tampering with the results. After five days results by app. August 2010 it seems likely that this will be delayed at for the Parliament's lower House of Assembly were announced. least for a year. MDC-T had won by gaining 99 seats followed by Zanu-PF 97, MDC-M 10. A single independent candidate was also elected (the Copac independent Jonathan Moyo has since regained his membership The secretariat of the Parliamentary Select Committee for Con- in Zanu-PF). The result of the Presidential contest was however stitutional Reform, responsible for the CMP. The committee is led not announced, and as time went by, Zimbabweans in general by three co-chairman: Paul Munyaradzi Mangwana (Zanu-PF), became suspicious that Mugabe had lost and that the authorities Edward Mkhosi (MDC-M) and Douglas Mwonzora (MDC-T). were busy fiddling with the results. In MDC-T fear of rigging and violence set in and Tsvangirai left the country, staying outside for People-Driven more than a month during the coming weeks. Five weeks after the Process A much coveted idea in Zimbabwe of having a consti- elections the Commission announced on 5 May a second round tution written by "the people", perceived as being almost anybody of elections would be held on 27 June as none of the candidates but politicians, but led by an independent commission constituted had achieved more than 50 per cent. Within Zanu-PF the political by civil society. The idea has been growing in influence since the wing of the party was scathingly critizised for having lost Mugabe's mid-1990'es when civil society groups led by mainly the trade election, and it is widely believed that the security wing, "the ruf- union council ZCTU under the umbrella organisation National fians" also called, now took control. They unleashed a veritable Constitution Assembly initiated a forceful campaign for a new, campaign of terror, resulting in the maiming of thousands of MDC- democratic constitution to substitute the 1979 so-called Lancaster T supporters and officials and the killing of 200-400. Tsvangirai House constitution. This mainly facilitated transfer of power from withdrew from the second round a week before it was scheduled the white settler regime to a democratically elected government to take place, citing violence against his party's supporters, and and as a result was a compromise document between the white Mugabe was elected unopposed. The campaign of violence, likely Rhodesian elite, the British Government and the country's two the worst since the liberation war, has deeply scarred the popula- liberation movements. Before the GPA, Zimbabwe's parliament tion and the conflict-prone co-existence of the bitter political rivals have since amended this constitution 18 times, but not, according in the IG and the continued practise of security forces to intimidate to civil society and MDC, to democratise but rather to concentrate opponents of Zanu-PF have prevented any meaningful healing. power in the hands of the Zanu-PF leadership. In order to pre- empt the NCA campaign, Zanu-PF in 1999 initiated a constitution- making process which too included consultations with the general population, but in which the President used his given powers to edit the draft. NCA subsequently fought a successful campaign to defeat this in a referendum in 2000. Encouraged by this, the NCA has since perceived itself as the guardian of constitutional reform (and bearing the brunt of the Zanu-PF regime's repression of this popular demand). NCA has bitterly accused MDC of betrayal as it s. 31 B APPENDIX CIVIC SOCIETY STATEMENT ON THE IMPENDING REFERENDuM AND ELECTIONS Written by Crisis Publications and resourced to improve its ability to manage elections efficiently Monday, 01 November 2010 and effectively. The Zimbabwe Election Support Network the leading indepen- * That there is need for complete overhaul and restructuring of dent network on elections in Zimbabwe convened a conference ZEC secretariat with a view to reform the institution into a profes- in Vumba - Leopard Rock Hotel which brought together various sional body that is non-partisan. organisations and partners working on elections to deliberate on electoral issues in light of the possible referendum on the new * That ZEC be in charge of all electoral processes including voter constitution and elections in 2011. registration and control, compile and update of voters' rolls. The conference was held under the theme: Enhancing Mutual * That the ZEC be a truly independent electoral body that is ac- Cooperation and Interaction on election Related activities amongst countable. CSOs. Ninety participants attended the conference and delibe- rated on Zimbabwe's preparedness for a referendum and elections * That there is need to do an overhaul review of the voters' roll in which they noted that the environment was not conducive for before the next elections holding democratic elections particularly considering the following; * That media freedoms be restored and guaranteed particularly * The political environment remains highly volatile, uncertain, and the liberalization of the state media and licensing of independent tense. The polarized environment-does not favor holding of elec- radio and television stations; tions as violence would most likely erupt. * That police presence should be limited to outside the polling * The GNU has not repealed repressive legislation such as the station where incidences of violence are most likely to occur. Public Order Security Act (POSA), the Access to Information and Protection of Privacy Act (AIPPA) and the Broadcasting Services * That the Presidential powers and temporary measures Act be Act. made of no effect during election time as it gives unfair advantage to one particular political party. * These Acts have restricted people's civil liberties and freedoms of expression and association and they are inimical to the holding * That, the right of assembly be restored and guaranteed; of free and fair elections. * That, the legislative framework for the elections be clarified as * Institutions and infrastructure that support violence such as the quickly as possible, while ensuring the greatest possible degree Youth militia, war veterans and a partisan security force remain of consensus between election stakeholders and participation of unreformed and therefore a threat to democratic elections relevant local and international organizations; * The safety of human rights defenders and activists remains an * The elections be administered at every level in an impartial and issue of concern as this curtails the oversight function of civic professional manner; society. * Parties in the inclusive government look at the interests and Civic society organisations represented therefore demanded the fears of the security chiefs and open negotiations with them with following; a view of making sure that they do not interfere with the electoral * A total end and denunciation of politically related violence and process. prosecution of the perpetrators of all forms of political violence * That the inclusive government ensures that a national election * That SADC ensures a non violent, free and fair election that communication centre is set up and accessible to all political respects the will of the people of Zimbabwe. players and stakeholders and that results be announced as they come from the various centres before there is any possibility for * That, the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) be capacitated manipulation by those with access to the process. s. 32 18. Kubatana * Civic society also demanded reforms that provide for early ac- 19. Matabeleland Constitution Reform Agenda creditation and the safety of local and international observers. 20. National Association of Non - Governmental Organisations 21. Media Centre * The role of inviting and accrediting of all observers should fall 22. Media Institute for Southern Africa under the election management body. Adequate numbers of 23. Media Monitoring Project of Zimbabwe observers need to be accredited early (as soon as proclamation is 24. National Association for the Care of the Handicapped done) and deployed to all areas of the country. 25. National Constitutional Assembly 26. Public Affairs Parliamentary Support Trust * The election should be monitored and supervised by regional 27. Progressive Teachers Association Zimbabwe and international bodies such as SADC, the African Union and 28. Research and Advocacy Unit United Nations who are present well in advance of the polls, and 29. Restoration of Human Rights post-polling day. 30. Radio Dialogue 31. Rooftop Promotions * Emphasis was on the need for transparency in all processes of 32. SAYWHAT the elections which include; results management and announce- 33. Southern African Parliamentary Support Trust ment, transparency in the production of ballot materials and 34. Transparency International - Zimbabwe processing of special and postal votes 35. VERITAS 36. Women's Coalition - Zimbabwe * Participation of diaspora in the electoral process 37. Women of Zimbabwe Arise 38. Women's Trust * Guarantee of peace and mechanisms that ensure flawless 39. Youth Agenda installation of winners into government. 40. Youth Initiative for Democracy in Zimbabwe 41. Youth Empowerment and Transformation With a view of improving future elections, CSOs proposed that 42. Zimbabwe Association of Doctors for Human Rights reforms are a matter of urgency and imperative before elections 43. Zimbabwe Association of Crime Prevention and Rehabilita- are held. The present environment does not provide a conducive tion of the environment for the holding of democratic elections. Nevertheless, Offender if need be, ZESN and CSOs are ready and remain committed to 44. Zimbabwe Congress of Trade Unions monitor the process and advocate for minimum conditions before 45. Zimbabwe Council of Churches the Referendum and next elections through effective coordinated 46. Zimbabwe Coalition on Debt and Development interventions. 47. Zimbabwe Civic Education Trust 48. Zimbabwe Election Support Network ORGANISATIONS IN ATTENDANCE 49. Zimbabwe Lawyers for Human Right Association 1. Achieve Your Goal Trust 50. Zimbabwe Peace Project 2. Bulawayo Agenda 51. Zimbabwe Students Christian Movement 3. Bulawayo People Residents Association 52. Zimbabwe Women Lawyers Association 4. Civic Education Trust Network 53. Zimbabwe Youth Network 5. Christian Alliance 54. Members of the Academia (University of Zimbabwe) 6. Combined Harare Residents Association 55. Resource persons from Kenya 7. Centre for Community Development in Zimbabwe 8. Centre for Research and Development Promoting Democratic Elections in Zimbabwe 9. Crisis Coalition in Zimbabwe 10. Centre for Peace Initiatives in Africa For Comments and further details contact: 11. Counseling Services Unit Zimbabwe Election Support Network 12. Elections Resource Centre firstname.lastname@example.com or email@example.com 13. Evangelical Fellowship of Zimbabwe 14. Habakkuk Trust +263 250736/791443/798193 15. Heal Zimbabwe +263 712 415902 or 263 773 220370 16. Human Rights Development Trust in Southern Africa 17. Law Society of Zimbabwe s. 33 16 On Aug. 29, 2009, The Zimbabwe Independent newspaper NOTES quoted a report tabled in the Zanu-PF politburo by acting com- missar Sikhanyiso Ndlovu revealing that the party had no solid structures throughout the country and that it would not win future 1 Adressing a public meeting in Bulawayo, Friday 12 November polls. 2010. As quoted in The Daily News. 17 Vice-President Joice Mujuru in October, months before the The Zimbabwe Independent, 21 Oct. 2010. 2 eventual constitution had been drafted, urged people to vote 'yes' 3 "Civic groups powerless to stop violent election", SW Radioafrica in the coming referendum. Radio VOP 24 October 2010 plus 1 November 2010. interviews with involved officials. 4 Even though the Zimbabwean dollar in February 2009 was substi- 18 It is a ironical that Zanu-PF in this way seem to have re-conque- tuted as legal tender by five foreign currencies, i.e. US Dollar, Euro, red lost ground utilising a process almost entirely funded by its British Pound, Botswanan Pula and South African Rand, prices declared Western arch-enemies. The outreach meetings of the and wages are in general settled in dollar, and "dollarisation" is CMP was funded by Australia, Denmark, EU, France, Holland, UK, consequently the popular term used. UNDP and USA. 5 International Crisis Group Africa Briefing N°70, 3 March 2010: 19 Higher and Tertiary Education Minister and Politburo member, Zimbabwe: Political and Security Challenges to the Transition long-time Minister of Foreign Affairs Stan Mudenge, in a meeting in his constituency in May 2010 said that his Zanu (PF) party was the 6 Further members of JOC are reportedly: General Constantine one ruling while the inclusive government was just administrative: Chiwenga - Commander of the Zimbabwe Defence Forces, "The set-up of the inclusive government does not mean that we Lieutenant-General Philip Sibanda - Commander of the Zimbabwe surrendered power to MDC-T. Zanu (PF) is still in control, and will National Army, Air Marshal Perence Shiri - Commander of the Air remain in control of the country's affairs. The inclusive government Force of Zimbabwe, Commissioner Augustine Chihuri - Com- is mainly concerned with administration of government duties missioner of the Zimbabwe Republic Police, Major General (Ret.) than power sharing. " Mudenge added that his party would never Paradzayi Zimondi - Head of the Zimbabwe prison service, Hap- hand real power to Tsvangirai. Radio VOP, 6 May 2010. pyton Bonyongwe - Director-General of the Central Intelligence Organisation, Gideon Gono - Governor of the Reserve Bank of 20 Interview. Zimbabwe. For recent reports, see: http://www.globalwitness.org/media_li- 21 7 For a comprehensive list of EU sanctions, see: http://ec.europa. brary_detail.php/993/en/return_of_the_blood_diamond_how_the_ eu/external_relations/cfsp/sanctions/docs/measures_en.pdf crisis_in_zimb and http://www.pacweb.org/index-e.php 8 For an overview of US sanctions, see: http://www.ustreas.gov/ 22 The country's most reliable political polls are conducted by the offices/enforcement/ofac/programs/zimbabwe/zimb.shtml Mass Public Opinion Institute. Since the formation of the IG, its pollers have been able to penetrate hitherto unaccessible parts of The percentages of votes given were: Morgan Tsvangirai 47, 9 - 9 the country and polls can generally be considered reflecting reality. Robert Mugabe 43,2 - Simba Makoni 8,3. Two trends have emerged since the first of such polls: Firstly, 10 For this report, the term "Inclusive Government" (IG) is used to support for MDC has steadily fallen, from 55-57 per cent during describe the government formed in february 2009 between MDC- March-September 2009 over 49 per cent in November 2009 to T, Zanu-PF and MDC-M - rather than terms used by other authors 32 per cent in August 2010. Secondly, the number of people such as "Government of National Unity" or "Power-Sharing declining to answer questions about their political preference rose, Agreement". IG is the term used in the GPA and in addition, there especially following the initiation of Zanu-PF's CMP campaign, never were neither 'unity' nor any 'power-sharing' (rather a division from 22-25 per cent to 40 per cent, spreading from the rural areas of powers) in the IG. to also include peri-urban and urban areas. 11 International Monetary Fund: World Economic Outlook. Wa- 23 Tsvangirai after his 6 Oct. statement wrote the European shington, October 2010. Union, Italy, South Africa, Sweden and the United Nations not to recognize ambassadors he say were unconstitutionally, unilaterally 12 Statement by Finance Minister Tendai Biti, Oct. 24, 2010. appointed by President Robert Mugabe in July. This he reportedly It is estimated that app. 3 million Zimbabweans, a quarter of the 13 did in spite of Western diplomats warning him of such a step. As population have left, mainly to South Africa and UK. of mid- November none had headed the call from Tsvangirai 14 Zimonline, 17 September 2010. 24 Speaking at Mabvuku Hall, Harare, Oct. 19, 2010, at the kick-off of his national tour. Quoted in numerous sources, for instance The 15 This draft constitution was written by The Negotiators during Daily News, Oct. 21, 2010. secret talks held in September 2007. It first came to the public's knowledge in September 2008 as Annexure B to the GPA and 25 "Nobody should ever dream of replacing liberation movements is mentioned in this as to be "recognised". It was immediately as the governing parties in Southern Africa, Zanu-PF national rejected by leading civil society organisations for two reasons; chairman Cde Simon Khaya Moyo has said. Adressing a Zanu-PF firstly, it was lacking in democratic control with the executive national co-ordination committee meeting ..., Cde Khaya Moyo and other institutions, traditionally utilized by Zanu-PF to exert said: "No liberation movement will ever be replaced by people totalitarian control and secondly, and more importantly, it ran coming from nowhere. This applies to Zanu-PF in Zimbabwe, ANC contrary to Zimbabwean Civil Society's decade-long demands of a in South Africa, Frelimo in Mozambique, Swapo in Namibia, MPLA 'people-driven' CMP, whereby a new constitution was based upon in Angola and Chama Cha Mapinduzi in Tanzania." The Herald, thorough consultation with the populace. MDC quickly supported 22.10.2010. this rejection, claiming the draft had only served as an interim 26 SWRadio, 16 September 2010 measure to guide the elections in 2008, and fully backed the CMP described in the GPA as constituting a 'people-driven' process. 27 Source: The Cato Institute, http://www.cato.org/zimbabwe This was rejected by The National Constitutional Assembly, the 28 Brian Macgarry: Dollarisation: Its immediate impact, how did we leading umbrella organisation originally embracing MDC, who survive. Paper published by The Zimbabwean, 27 Sept. 2010. claimed that a process driven by a parliamentary committee would be 'politician' and not 'people' driven. s. 34 29 A note of caution on figures circulating on the Unemployment 47 Meeting held in Cyril Jennings Hall, Highfield, Harare, Tuesday Rate in Zimbabwean: This is often cited as being 94 per cent, 26 Oct 2010. RadioVOP, 28 Oct. 2010. but this is a faulty figure based on UN figures for the proportion of 48 Less attention has been given to the fact that the Act in addition the population formally employed (in 2008: 6 per cent). Firstly, a reserve a large number of business areas for blacks (or "indigine- very large proportion of the population is below employment age ous peoples" as is the term used in the Act) such as all agricultural and secondly, another large proportion of the adult population is production of food and cash crops, transport (buses, taxis and car fully employed as small-scale farmers. For this reason this report hire services), retail and wholesale trade, barber shops, hairdres- shies away from stating unemployment rates but prefers rather to sing and beauty salons, employment agencies, estate agencies, compare number of people formally employed. valet services, grain milling, bakeries, tobacco grading and pack- 30 No pay rise for Zimbabwe civil servants. RadioVOP, 4 October aging, tobacco processing, advertising agencies, milk processing 2001 and provision of local arts. 31 IMF Country Report No. 10/186, July 2010 49 Three weeks after the secret gazetting, Mugabe told hundreds of supporters at his 86th birthday celebrations in Bulawayo that the 32 EIU Country Report, 1 October 2010. indigenisation policy, like the land reform programme, was meant 33 EIU Country Report, 1 October 2010 to correct historical imbalances in the ownership of the country's resources: "This policy is not meant to nationalise companies but 34 The Herald, Oct. 25, 2010 to broaden ownership of our resources. Yesterday, we were down 35 Interview with Finance Minister Tendai Biti trodden, there was slavery... Back home, the people were coloni- sed and turned into slave and semi-slave to do work for masters 36 Sunday Mail 10 Oct, 2010 who had colonised us. It was slavery in the colonies and that is 37 The Herald, Oct. 25, 2010 what created the imbalances." 38 EIU Country Report, 1 October 2010 50 In a statement 5 November 2010 MDC-T publicly charged that ZANU-PF has loaded the secretariat staff with members of the 39 Interview. Central Intelligence Organization, the military and the national 40 Source: Zimbabwe Tobacco Association, Oct. 2010. police. This too, is a result of politics, as explained by the second vice- 41 51 In september, ZEC chairman Judge Simpson Mutambanengwe president of the Zimbabe Farmers's Union, Berean Mukwende: stated that: "commissioners were appointed on the 31 of March "As a union, we went to District Development Fund to find out 2010 ... but they still not have received their conditions of service what happened to the combine harvesters and we were told they ... Conditions of service for the secretariat staff are poor and not were given to certain individuals. We asked to be given the names in line with the conditions of other election management bodies in of the beneficiaries, but they did not have a list." The Standard, the region." Zimonline, 18 September. Oct. 13, 2010 52 Mutambanengwe on 4 November reiterated that without an im- 42 Same mediate injection of funds his commission will not be able to carry out reforms key to ensuring that polls expected 2011 are credible. 43 Speculation on the President's health has long been a favorite Zimonline 5 November 2010. sport amongst Zimbabweans, not least since a great proportion is convinced that no meaningful change can happen as long as 53 Like any other higher-ranking government officials, most of these he is at the helm of the country. Numerous stories are told of his are Zanu-PF members. use of ngangas and East Asien medical specialists to stay active. 54 The Zimbabwe Independent newspaper in May 2010 reported He does appear his age, but can perform as a sparklingly clear that Mutambara managed to have the non-invited Mugabe speak and charismatic speaker. When asked about his health in a rare at a World Economic Forum summit in Dar Es Salaam which Mu- interview, he jokingly told Reuters' in September 2010 that '"I gabe happened visit for another event. According to the paper's don't know how many times I die but nobody has ever talked report Mutambara, who is a member of WEF, enabled Mugabe to about my resurrection. I suppose they don't want to, because it 'gatecrash' the Forum. Zimbabwe Independent, 14 May 2010. would mean they would mention my resurrection several times and that would be quite divine, an achievement for an individual 55 Opinion polls repeatedly measure voter backing to be app. 1 per who is not divine. Jesus died once, and resurrected only once, cent. and poor Mugabe several times," he said, clapping his hands 56 The management committee consists of Copac's three co- loudly, laughing and rocking in his chair.' Reuters 9 Sept. 2010. chairman (Paul Munyaradzi Mangwana (Zanu-PF), Edward Mkhosi This interview came hard on the heals of tv-footage showing him (MDC-M) Douglas Mwonzora (MDC-T), The Minister of Constitutio- not being able to descend the stairs from an airoplane in China nal and Parliamentary Affairs (Eric Matinenga, MDC-T) plus the six without substantial assistance, the first factual public evidence that so-called Negotiators (as they negotiated the NGA), from Zanu-PF: all might not be quite well. Patrick Chinamasa and Nicholas Goche, from MDC-T Tendai Biti 44 For a detailed description of this see International Crisis Group and Elton Mangoma, from MDC-M: Welshman Ncube and Priscilla Africa Briefing N°70, 3 March 2010: Zimbabwe: Political and Misihairabwi-Mushonga. Security Challenges to the Transition 57 SWRadio, 21 October 2010. 45 ICG Africa Briefing N°70 Both quotes by Ncube in RadioVOP: "Welshman Ncube Blasts 58 46 Recently several well-respected observers have suggested this Zanu (PF) And MDC", 20 Oct. 2010. could be the discreet, almost reclusive but very capable Sydney Sekeramayi. He belongs to the same influential Zezuru Shona clan as Mugabe and as a loyal party member since the early 1960'ies his credentials are impeccable. He has never openly displayed any presidential ambitions and belongs to the Presidents most trusted inner circle. In addition, with very little obvious blood on his hands he can be deemed presentable to voters and the outside world. s. 35 59 An audit of the existing voters' roll conducted by pressure group Sokwanele unearthed several anomalies in the current roll maintained by the Registrar General's Office. These included a surprisingly large number of people aged 100 and above. The audit identified names of 74 021 voters aged above 100 on the roll used in last year's harmonised parliamentary and presidential elections. There were also 82 456 people registered who are aged between 90 and 100 years old. The Zimbabwean, 24 July 2010. Zimonline, 05 November 2010 60 According to the Constitution as amended by the GPA the 61 President can dissolve Parliament and call an election only in agreement with PM Tsvangirai. 62 According to the Zimbabwe Independent, "an extra-ordinary politburo meeting on Wednesday was shocked after political com- missar Webster Shamu revealed that grassroots structures were in a mess. Sources who attended the meeting said Shamu told the politburo that Zanu PF was not ready for elections considering the troubled structures that were destroyed by factionalism. But Presi- dent Robert Mugabe instructed Shamu to put the party structures in order as a matter of urgency. "It seems the politburo doesn't have a common view over elections," one politburo member said. "Some members might not be open to challenge what Mugabe say, but we know that all Zanu PF senior officials don't want elec- tions." The Independent, 04 November 2010. SW Radio, 28 October, 2010 63 64 In its item on this issue SW Radio 29 October 2010 reported the seizure of such radios from villagers in Murehwa and the confi- scation in September from a local NGO in Gweru of 862 similar radios. 65 The party might be warming up to this through statements in early November that the forthcoming Zanu-PF "Peoples Congress" in December will decide on whether Zanu-PF will remain in the IG. Appendix A. 66 67 "Civic groups powerless to stop violent election", SWradioafrica 1 November 2010 Zimonline, 08 November 2010 68 Faellevej 12 DK-2200 Copenhagen N +45 7731 0000 firstname.lastname@example.com ms.dk
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