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North Havasu Area Transportation Study FFiinnaall Reeppoorrtt March 2010 TABLE OF CONTENTS Page 1. INTRODUCTION AND EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .......................................... 1 PURPOSE................................................................................................ 1 PUBLIC INVOLVEMENT AND STAKEHOLDER COORDINATION ..................... 1 ORGANIZATION OF FINAL REPORT........................................................... 3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ........................................................................... 3 2. CURRENT CONDITIONS ......................................................................... 10 REVIEW OF PREVIOUS STUDIES AND PLANS............................................. 10 SOCIOECONOMIC CONDITIONS................................................................ 20 PHYSICAL, NATURAL, AND CULTURAL ENVIRONMENTS AND LAND USE ..................................................................................... 25 TRANSPORTATION CONDITIONS AND ISSUES............................................ 39 MULTIMODAL CONDITIONS .................................................................... 52 3. FUTURE NORTH HAVASU AREA CHARACTERISTICS ............................... 56 ESTABLISHMENT OF TRAFFIC ANALYSIS ZONES (TAZ) .............................. 56 INFLUENCES ON FUTURE GROWTH ......................................................... 57 FUTURE SOCIOECONOMIC CONDITIONS................................................... 59 FUTURE ROADWAY NETWORK................................................................ 70 FUTURE TRAFFIC CONDITIONS ..............................................................79 4. PLAN FOR IMPROVEMENTS................................................................... 89 EVALUATION MEASURES FOR TRANSPORTATION OPTIONS ..................... 89 ROADWAY NETWORK AND OTHER MODE ALTERNATIVES......................... 95 SHORT-, MID-, AND LONG-RANGE PLAN................................................. 109 ENVIRONMENTAL JUSTICE CONSIDERATIONS ........................................ 114 i TABLE OF CONTENTS Page 5. IMPLEMENTATION PLAN..................................................................... 116 ROADWAY CROSS-SECTIONS................................................................. 116 ACCESS MANAGEMENT........................................................................ 119 ACTION PLAN...................................................................................... 123 COSTS................................................................................................. 124 FUNDING SOURCES .............................................................................. 125 REVENUE ESTIMATES .......................................................................... 130 PUBLIC INVOLVEMENT SUMMARY REPORT .................... (Under separate cover) APPENDIX A. 2015, 2020, AND 2030 POPULATION, HOUSEHOLDS, AND EMPLOYMENT DETAILS...................................................... 131 APPENDIX B. POTENTIAL ROADWAYS IN THE NHA REFERENCES .......................................................................................... 139 ii iii LIST OF TABLES Page 2.1. SUMMARY OF STUDIES AND PLANS .................................................... 10 2.2. WESTERN ARIZONA TRI-CITY AREA, REGIONAL FRAMEWORK STUDY: LAKE HAVASU AREA SCENARIOS, 2050................................................ 14 2.3. POPULATION CHANGE 2000 TO 2008, ARIZONA, MOHAVE COUNTY, AND THE TRI-CITY AREA ................................................................... 21 2.4. POPULATION AND DWELLING UNITS, CENSUS 2000 .............................. 21 2.5. SUMMARY OF ENVIRONMENTAL JUSTICE POPULATIONS...................... 23 2.6. SR 95 ANNUALIZED AVERAGE DAILY TRAFFIC .................................... 42 2.7. LEVEL OF SERVICE THRESHOLDS AND DESCRIPTIONS ......................... 43 2.8. SUMMARY OF TRAFFIC CRASHES IN NORTH HAVASU AREA.................. 45 2.9. ROADWAY SEGMENTS ON SR 95 CORRIDOR ......................................... 47 2.10. ACCESS POINTS LOCATED WITHIN LAKE HAVASU CITY LIMITS............. 48 2.11. NORTH HAVASU AREA TRANSPORTATION NEEDS AND DEFICIENCIES: STAKEHOLDER COMMENTS................................................................ 49 3.1. LAKE HAVASU AREA FUTURE POPULATION AND HOUSEHOLDS............ 60 3.2. NORTH HAVASU AREA FUTURE POPULATION AND HOUSEHOLDS.......... 61 3.3. NORTH HAVASU AREA FUTURE TOTAL EMPLOYMENT ......................... 67 3.4. NORTH HAVASU AREA 2030 EMPLOYMENT BY CATEGORY.................... 67 3.5. SUMMARY OF RECOMMENDED PROJECTS IN THE 2005 SATS OR CIP....... 71 3.6. HIGHEST DAILY TRAFFIC VOLUMES 2020............................................. 80 3.7. HIGHEST DAILY TRAFFIC VOLUMES 2030............................................. 84 3.8. DAILY TRAFFIC VOLUMES COMPARED FOR 2030, KEY LOCATIONS ........ 85 4.1. PERFORMANCE MEASURES ................................................................ 90 4.2. FEASIBILITY MEASURES..................................................................... 91 LIST OF TABLES (Continued) Page 4.3. PLANNING PHASES DEFINITIONS, CONTRASTS..................................... 96 4.4. HIGHEST MID-RANGE ALTERNATIVE DAILY TRAFFIC VOLUMES ......... 102 4.5. HIGHEST LONG-RANGE ALTERNATIVE DAILY TRAFFIC VOLUMES....... 105 5.1. MINIMUM ROAD DESIGN AND ACCESS CRITERIA ............................... 122 5.2. NORTH HAVASU AREA TRANSPORTATION ACTION PLAN.................... 123 5.3. ROAD MILEAGE FOR RECOMMENDED NETWORKS (EXCLUDING SR 95 REALIGNMENT)................................................... 124 5.4. MATRIX OF KEY FUNDING SOURCES................................................. 126 5.5. FY 2008 FEDERAL FUNDING SOURCES FOR ARIZONA (IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS).............................................................. 128 5.6. TRANSPORTATION INVESTMENT STRATEGY IN LAKE HAVASU CITY AREA ............................................................... 130 A-1. 2015, 2020, AND 2030 POPULATION AND HOUSING............................... 134 A-2. 2015, 2020, AND 2030 EMPLOYMENT .................................................. 135 iv LIST OF FIGURES Page 1.1. NORTH HAVASU STUDY AREA............................................................. 2 2.1. GENERAL PLAN UPDATE FUTURE TRANSPORTATION/ CIRCULATION PLAN .........................................................................15 2.2. GENERAL PLAN UPDATE FUTURE LAND USE PLAN (SEPTEMBER 2008) .. 15 2.3. SR 95 CENTRAL CORRIDOR OPTIONS ................................................... 17 2.4. COMPARISON OF PERCENTAGES OF TITLE VI POPULATIONS ................. 23 2.5. LAND OWNERSHIP............................................................................. 26 2.6. LAND OWNERSHIP: SHARE BY OWNER ................................................ 27 2.7. SPECIAL BLM AREAS (RECREATION, CRITICAL ENVIRONMENTAL CONCERN) ........................................................................................ 30 2.8. CURRENT LAND USE.......................................................................... 33 2.9. ZONING............................................................................................35 2.10. EXISTING COMMERCIAL AND FUTURE AIR PARK ................................. 36 2.11. ANNEXATION AREAS ........................................................................ 38 2.12. FUNCTIONAL CLASSIFICATION: MOBILITY VERSUS ACCESS.................. 39 2.13. FUNCTIONAL CLASSIFICATION........................................................... 40 2.14. EXAMPLES OF ROADWAY LEVEL OF SERVICE...................................... 43 2.15. 2007 AVERAGE ANNUAL DAILY TRAFFIC............................................. 44 2.16. LOCATIONS OF TRAFFIC VIOLATIONS 2003-2007 ................................... 46 2.17. PUBLIC TRANSIT AND POTENTIAL TRAILS........................................... 54 3.1. TRAFFIC ANALYSIS ZONES AND 2030 BASE ROADWAY NETWORK.......... 58 3.2. HYPOTHETICAL DEVELOPMENT, TAZ 10 (PART)................................... 61 3.3. 2020 POPULATION DENSITY (PER SQUARE MILE) .................................. 62 v LIST OF FIGURES (Continued) Page 3.4. 2020 HOUSEHOLD DENSITY (PER SQUARE MILE)................................... 63 3.5. 2030 POPULATION DENSITY (PER SQUARE MILE) .................................. 65 3.6. 2030 HOUSEHOLD DENSITY (PER SQUARE MILE)................................... 66 3.7. 2020 EMPLOYMENT DENSITY (PER SQUARE MILE) ................................ 68 3.8. 2030 EMPLOYMENT DENSITY (PER SQUARE MILE) ................................ 69 3.9. 2020 BASE NETWORK FUNCTIONAL CLASSIFICATION............................ 75 3.10. 2020 BASE NETWORK WITH NUMBER OF LANES ................................... 76 3.11. 2030 BASE NETWORK FUNCTIONAL CLASSIFICATION............................ 77 3.12. 2030 BASE NETWORK WITH NUMBER OF LANES ................................... 78 3.13. 2020 DAILY TRAFFIC VOLUMES AND LEVEL OF SERVICE ...................... 81 3.14. SEASONAL VARIATION IN TRAFFIC ON SR 95 ....................................... 82 3.15. 2020 PEAK SEASON DAILY TRAFFIC VOLUMES AND LEVEL OF SERVICE. 83 3.16. 2030 DAILY TRAFFIC VOLUMES AND LEVEL OF SERVICE ...................... 86 3.17. 2030 PEAK SEASON DAILY TRAFFIC VOLUMES AND LEVEL OF SERVICE. 88 4.1. MID-RANGE (2025-2030) ALTERNATIVE NETWORK FUNCTIONAL CLASSIFICATION ............................................................................... 98 4.2. MID-RANGE (2025-2030) ALTERNATIVE NETWORK WITH NUMBER OF LANES.............................................................................................. 99 4.3. LONG-RANGE (2035-2040) ALTERNATIVE NETWORK FUNCTIONAL CLASSIFICATION ............................................................................ 100 4.4. LONG-RANGE (2035-2040) ALTERNATIVE NETWORK WITH NUMBER OF LANES............................................................................................ 101 4.5. MID-RANGE (2025-2030) ALTERNATIVE TRAFFIC VOLUMES AND LEVEL OF SERVICE.......................................................................... 103 vi LIST OF FIGURES (Continued) Page 4.6. MID-RANGE (2025-2030) ALTERNATIVE DAILY TRAFFIC VOLUMES AND LEVEL OF SERVICE SEASONALLY ADJUSTED.............................. 104 4.7. LONG-RANGE (2035-2040) ALTERNATIVE DAILY TRAFFIC VOLUMES AND LEVEL OF SERVICE ................................................................ 106 4.8. LONG-RANGE (2035-2040) ALTERNATIVE DAILY TRAFFIC VOLUMES AND LEVEL OF SERVICE SEASONALLY ADJUSTED.............................. 107 4.9. MID-RANGE PLAN (2025-2030) ........................................................... 110 4.10. LONG-RANGE PLAN (2035-2040) ......................................................... 111 5.1. RURAL DIVIDED HIGHWAY CROSS-SECTION ...................................... 117 5.2. BOULEVARD CROSS-SECTION ........................................................... 118 5.3. AVENUE CROSS-SECTION ................................................................. 118 vii Lima & Associates Draft Final Report – Page 1 1. INTRODUCTION AND EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Planning Assistance for Rural Areas (PARA) program is sponsored by the Arizona Department of Transportation (ADOT) Multimodal Planning Division, and provides federal funds for the purpose of conducting transportation planning studies. The PARA program is available only to communities outside the large metropolitan areas. Large metropolitan areas have separate funding sources and programs tailored to their needs. Lake Havasu City (LHC) first participated in another ADOT program for local governments, the Small Area Transportation Study (SATS) program, in 1991. Under the SATS program the Lake Havasu City government (the City) successfully developed a citywide roadway plan, and then took part in the SATS program to update the plan in 1997 and 2005. The PARA program is flexible and allows for studies of neighborhoods or sub-areas within jurisdictions. The sub-area program provision made it possible for the City to apply for and receive PARA funding for the North Havasu Study Area (NHA; Figure 1.1). PURPOSE As a PARA, the North Havasu Area Transportation Study (NHATS) has been a joint effort of ADOT and the City. The study has resulted in mid-range and long-range transportation plans for the NHA, evaluated against an agreed upon set of performance and feasibility measures. The plans are consistent with the City's land use, annexation, and mountain preservation principles. The study also considered short-range needs and reconfirmed projects planned in the City's Community Improvement Program. The study was coordinated with ongoing local and regional transit planning. An implementation plan outlines actions to accomplish roadway and non-motorized projects, transportation system management strategies, and access management strategies. PUBLIC INVOLVEMENT AND STAKEHOLDER COORDINATION All of the NHATS Working Papers benefited from the insights of many people. Stakeholders were interviewed early in the planning process. The stakeholders included several Technical Advisory Committee (TAC) members and representatives from groups that have special knowledge of land use, development trends, roads, trails and/or traffic conditions. Two open houses were conducted to receive comments from the public concerning the findings of the NHATS. The first occurred on June 2, 2009, and focused upon current conditions in North Havasu and previous plans for the area. The second NHATS open house took place on the evening of December 2, 2009, and focused upon future conditions in North Havasu and the draft transportation plan. The consultant reviewed the insights of the meeting participants and they were incorporated into this Final Report (Report) as appropriate. The public meetings are more fully documented in the Public Involvement Summary (under separate cover). ociates Final Report – Page 2 FIGURE 1.1. NORTH HAVASU STUDY AREA Lima & Ass Lima & Associates Final Report – Page 3 Four TAC meetings occurred: • January 2009 - to initiate the NHATS. • June 2009 - to review the findings of stakeholder meetings and draft Working Paper 1: Current Conditions. The TAC also reviewed proposed traffic analysis zones (TAZ) and the base road network. • September 2009 - to review Working Paper 2: Future Conditions and to begin devising alternatives to the base. • December 2009 - to review draft Working Paper 3: Transportation Plan. ORGANIZATION OF FINAL REPORT The remainder of Chapter 1 is the Executive Summary. The other chapters of this Report are a compilation and refinement of the NHATS's three Working Papers. Chapter 2, Current Conditions, includes an inventory of previous planning and an analysis of current socioeconomic, physical, environmental, and transportation conditions. Chapter 3, Future Conditions, describes the projection of households and employment for the short-range, mid-range, and long-range timeframes, which is the basis of travel demand. Chapter 3 then indicates the travel demand generated by the households, employment, and other activities in the NHA for the short-range, mid-range, and long-range future and indicates how the base roadway network would perform in meeting that demand. The Plan for Improvements, Chapter 4, first considered alternatives to the base roadway network and alternatives for other modes, to meet future travel demand. Transportation plan recommendations resulted from evaluating and selecting projects after modeling both the base network and the alternatives. Additional recommendations concern alternate modes. Finally, Chapter 5, Implementation Plan describes two items for the City's toolkit (standard roadway cross-sections and access management tools), a transportation action plan, and financial prospects. The Public Involvement Summary Report (under separate cover) describes the public involvement process. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY A summary of findings in key topical areas addressed in the Current Conditions and Future Conditions Working Papers appears below. The section is followed by a summary of the Plan for Improvements and Implementation Plan (Plan). Background From Current Conditions and Future Conditions Working Papers Land Ownership Overview Most of the NHA land is owned by three primary public landowners. Privately-owned land is split between commercial development and vacant land. The primary landowners are: • Arizona State Land Department (ASLD), which holds lands in trust for the benefit of the people of Arizona, holds the bulk of the lands in North Havasu. Past trends indicate the next State Trust Lands to be marketed for disposition and development would be along the existing SR 95 corridor. Programming of any SR 95 realignment construction would likely spur interest in State trust lands in the eastern portion of North Havasu. • The Bureau of Land Management (BLM) holds a modest share of North Havasu's land, and encourages joint planning with the City and other agencies in the "interface area" between the City and the vast BLM land area to the northeast. • The Havasu National Wildlife Refuge on the west edge of the NHA protects numerous sensitive plant and animal species. Several additional sensitive species may be present elsewhere in North Havasu. • Privately-held lands are currently concentrated along existing SR 95 and some are developed as commercial properties. Land Use Planning Overview As the originally platted City approaches buildout, North Havasu is to be planned for development. Current City policy is articulated in the Lake Havasu City General Plan, the 2008 City Annexation Policy Plan, and the Mountain Preservation Task Force recommendations. Together the documents indicate that North Havasu will have clustered development combined with open space to preserve undeveloped lands, washes, and hillsides, making pedestrian-friendly neighborhoods, and yielding a low average residential density. The state land commissioner and the ASLD's selection board must approve any annexation area. Any annexation of State Trust Land must be in the best interest of the Trust by enhancing the value of the property. In addition, annexations which include State Trust Land now require a preannexation development agreement which outlines requirements for completing an annexation. The ASLD has adopted a Lake Havasu City Conceptual plan for State Trust Land inside of the City's planning area in 2004 (2004 Plan), and has coordinated with the City regarding integrating the Conceptual plan into the municipality's general land use plan. The State Land Commissioner has approved the 2004 Plan, but has not yet formally approved any updates to the 2004 Plan such as any changes in minimum development density for State Trust Lands. During the preparation of this Report, the ASLD noted the City's reference to the parkway/ SR Realignment as an urban containment boundary (Chapter 2, Annexation section). The ASLD commented upon the urban containment boundary and stated the importance of City coordination with ASLD and compliance with Arizona's growing smarter statutes. The ASLD's comments are covered at greater detail in the Annexation section of Chapter 2. Lima & Associates Final Report – Page 4 Planning for an Access-Controlled Highway as an Alternative to Existing SR 95 Several previous studies considered possible corridors for an access-controlled highway around the City to alleviate traffic congestion on SR 95. The City's General Plan Update in 2004 included a possible 4-lane parkway alignment that would head east from SR 95 at Chenoweth Drive (shown on Figure 2.1 of this Report). The ASLD accepted that alignment as part of the Conceptual plan approval in 2004. A somewhat different Parkway alignment was recommended in the Lake Havasu City SATS Update, 2005. In the early phase of a subsequent study (2008-2009), the ADOT Corridor Location Study & Environmental Overview, the access-controlled highway alternatives were designated as a possible SR 95 Realignment in the Lake Havasu Area, rather than simply as a Parkway. The various alternatives in the ADOT Corridor Location Study appear in Figure 2.3. Travel demand modeling was performed in the ADOT Corridor Location Study for a limited number of the alternatives. The purposes of the NHATS required that travel demand modeling for the NHA include an SR 95 realignment corridor as a part of the NHA network. The TAC agreed upon the realignment location to be used for modeling purposes in this Report. The location is similar to the ADOT Corridor Location Study's 2030 4-Lane Freeway North Option 1 & 2. The maps in this Report show the SR 95 realignment corridor as a line to provide a simple representation of the SR 95 realignment corridor, so that it might be seen clearly on the various maps among many other map features and labels. The lines on the maps should not be interpreted as specific road centerline alignments. Additional planning and engineering studies are required to define centerline alignments and right-of-way. While the exact location of the SR 95 realignment is not yet known, the City intends that the realignment as eventually constructed would be an urban containment boundary. As noted in the land use planning overview, above, more details on the urban containment boundary and comments upon it by ASLD are in the Annexation section of Chapter 2. Future Travel Demand and Performance of the Base Roadway Network Future NHA characteristics are described in Chapter 3. The future time periods are identified with the future years 2015, 2020, and 2030 as specified in the original scope of work developed by ADOT and the City. The TAC confirmed that the socioeconomic projections for 2015, 2020, and 2030 were reasonable at the time of the travel demand modeling in light of available data and projections done by others in the recent past. The 2030 projections for the NHATS were lower than those in the Lake Havasu City Small Area Transportation Study Update 2005 (2005 SATS). The figures appear in summary Tables 3.2 and 3.3. Further details appear in other tables and figures in Chapter 3. Some of the highlights of the socioeconomic projections for the travel demand model were: • NHA population was expected to grow from no population in 2010 to approximately 6,500 persons by 2030. Lima & Associates Final Report – Page 5 • NHA employment was expected to grow to 5,000 persons by 2030. Jobs in the commercial sector were projected to be most numerous. The City is preparing an industrial park southeast of the airport and there are other private commercial and industrial properties available in that same area. Commercial development was projected to be concentrated on SR 95 north of Chenoweth Dr and west of the airport, where the Shops at Lake Havasu would build out by the time the mid-range facilities were needed. • Besides the gross amount of land available, influences on development include established land use plans (such as the Lake Havasu City General Plan and the Airport Master Plan), zoning, terrain, and floodplains. While some of the influences limit where development could occur, there is more than sufficient land in each North Havasu TAZ to accommodate both 2030 and later buildout development. The base model network for 2015, 2020, and 2030 in Chapter 3 yielded the following performance characteristics: • The base future model results generally yielded acceptable levels of service for traffic on NHA roadways. The base model roadway network met general criteria to provide adequate collectors and arterials for the NHA. • The future traffic volumes associated with the parkway/SR 95 realignment are consistent with those found in the 2005 SATS and the SR 95 Realignment Study, as discussed in the 2030 Traffic Conditions section of Chapter 3 and listed in Table 3.8. Plan for Improvements and Implementation Plan The Plan comprises Chapter 4, the Plan for Improvements, and Chapter 5, the Implementation Plan. During the development of the recommended transportation plan the TAC members recognized that due to the economic downturn the amount of growth projected for the years 2010 through 2030 would not occur until later than originally expected. Recently, there has been a decline in the City's population, which will likely be temporary. Therefore, the original 2030 projection numbers were relabeled as "long-range" projections. It is estimated that the horizon year when the "long-range" projections would be reached would be between 2035 and 2040. In the remainder of this Report (Chapter 4) the phases are labeled as short-range (through 2020), mid-range (2025-2030), and long-range (2035-2040). Alternatives Equipped with results of the base future model, alternatives were devised to further improve levels of service and other measures. The greatest differences between the base and alternative roadway networks were: Lima & Associates Final Report – Page 6 • In the mid-range phase (Figure 4.1), Bentley Boulevard was shifted to intersect with the SR 95 realignment further west, which would make for more use by those traveling from central Lake Havasu City. • In the long-range phase (Figure 4.3), frontage roads were added parallel to the SR 95 realignment (both on the north and south side of the realignment), and Desert Lake Drive was added. The mid-range change in Bentley Boulevard was helpful to network performance and was retained in the Plan, while the addition of Desert Lake Drive made little difference and Desert Lake was not included subsequently in the recommended Plan. Performance and Feasibility Measures The evaluation incorporated two types of measures summarized in Tables 4.1 and 4.2: • ADOT performance measures applied to State Route 95 (SR 95), since the highway is on the State Highway System (SHS). • Measures specific to the City's vision for mountain preservations and up-to-date cost considerations used by Arizona cities during the current economic recession. Roadway Network Plans (Short-range, Mid-range, Long-range) Short-Range Plan. Very little residential development will occur in the short-range and the employment growth will be largely served by the existing roadway network. Transportation projects will be limited to some upgrades that were already recommended in the 2005 Lake Havasu City SATS and/or the Community Improvement Program. Mid-Range Plan. The mid-range Plan (Figure 4.9) recommends actions that would result in completion of the SR 95 realignment as a two-lane rural principal arterial. ADOT studies and activities would be required to determine any of those actions, including: • Reserving SR 95 realignment right-of-way. • Constructing two-lane SR 95 Realignment and intersections. • Constructing two-lane SR 95 Realignment frontage road from Chenoweth Rd to Bentley Blvd. Other mid-range recommendations that would be managed by the City include: • Extending the Havasu Area Transit (HAT) facilities as North Havasu development occurs. • Extending Lake Havasu Ave. • Reconstructing existing Chenoweth Rd. • Constructing Bentley Blvd to two lanes. • Implementing access management techniques on existing SR 95 in the NHA. Lima & Associates Final Report – Page 7 Long-Range Plan. The long-range Plan (Figure 4.10) recommends actions that would result in completion of the SR 95 realignment as a four-lane rural or urban divided highway during the long-range phase. ADOT studies and activities would be required to determine any of those actions, including: • Constructing four-lane SR 95 Realignment and interchanges. • Constructing two-lane SR 95 Realignment frontage road from Bentley to Bison Blvd. Other long-range recommendations that would be managed by the City include: • Extending HAT facilities to full North Havasu development. • Extending Lake Havasu Ave to Chenoweth Rd. • Extending and Constructing Chenoweth Rd to SR 95 realignment. • Widening London Bridge Rd to five lanes between Chenoweth and Centre Blvd. • Infrastructure providers and the City would continue to coordinate new infrastructure construction with transportation improvements. • The important intermodal connections at the airport would be largely within the airport boundary and would be managed by the Airport Master Plan update approved by City Council in January 2009. • The future North Havasu trail system would include four trails as outlined in the Lake Havasu City Trails plan, with additional connections to residential areas. • The MCC Regional Park would be developed. Mohave Community College (MCC) was the former owner of the acreage and the undeveloped park's master plan designates it as MCC Regional Park, a name likely to change in the future. The park's transportation connections would be to: - SR 95 realignment via the Park Access Rd. - Neighborhoods on local roadways. - The City trail system. Implementation Plan The City requested assistance in four types of implementation processes, which are addressed in Chapter 5, the Implementation Plan: • A recommended Rural Divided Highway cross-section proposed by ADOT for the SR 95 Realignment appears in Figure 5.1. Recommended City boulevard and avenue cross-sections appear in Figures 5.2 and 5.3, respectively. • Access management can reduce vehicle crashes and reduce travel time both for through trips and those accessing a destination in a local area. Access management tools recommended for the City appear in Table 5.1 and include design criteria, traffic regulation, and appropriate transit, pedestrian, and bicycle facilities. Lima & Associates Final Report – Page 8 • The action plan for implementation of improvements is in Table 5.2. The table shows a phased program for the short-range, mid-range, and long-range, identifies implementation actions, and names one or more agencies responsible for carrying out each action. • Financial prospects are set out in the final section of the Plan, including costs, funding sources, and one possible investment strategy (Table 5.6). Lima & Associates Final Report – Page 9 2. CURRENT CONDITIONS This chapter reviews studies, plans, and programs related to transportation in the NHA. REVIEW OF PREVIOUS STUDIES AND PLANS Table 2.1 summarizes the documents that were reviewed. More details on studies and plans are presented in Working Paper 1: Current Conditions. Following the table, additional detail is provided on specific studies that are anticipated to influence the development of the NHATS. TABLE 2.1. SUMMARY OF STUDIES AND PLANS Study Description Federal Studies and Plans Bureau of Land Management Approved Resource Management Plan and Final Environmental Impact Statement, 2007, Lake Havasu Field Office. Presents analyses of the five alternatives for management of 1.3 million acres of public land. The plan provides for a balance between authorized resource use and the protection and long-term sustainability of sensitive resources. Major issues addressed in the plan for the Bureau of Land Management lands that are in and near Lake Havasu City include findings for the Havasu Urban Special Recreational Management Areas. http://www.blm.gov/az/st/en/info/nepa/environmental_library/ arizona_resource_management/LHFO_ROD_07.html State Studies and Plans Arizona Framework Studies, On-going. A consortium of state, regional, and local stakeholders is working on the planning process Building a Quality Arizona for state transportation infrastructure needs. As part of this process, Regional Framework Studies will feed into the Statewide Transportation Planning Framework. The Framework studies are long-range visionary plans focusing on transportation needs in the 2030-2050 timeframe. http://www.bqaz.gov/weaz.asp Western Arizona Regional Framework Study. Working Paper: Existing Conditions, April 2008. The Western Arizona Region includes Mohave, La Paz, and Yuma Counties. Products completed to date include: Working Paper 2: Existing Conditions and Community Workshops, Round 1, March/April 2008. Working Paper 2 compiles an inventory and analysis of the Existing and Future Conditions gathered from previous and current studies. Work has also been accomplished as part of the overall Western Arizona Framework Study on population and employment forecasts and the development of a Statewide travel demand model. http://www.bqaz.gov/PDF/Western_WorkingPaper2.pdf Lima & Associates Final Report – Page 10 TABLE 2.1. SUMMARY OF STUDIES AND PLANS (Continued) Arizona Governor's CANAMEX Task Force, Meeting Summary, January 31, 2006. The CANAMEX Corridor is envisioned to connect Mexico, the United States, and Canada. In addition to its primary route through Arizona, CANAMEX could include a Western Passage that was championed by Communities located in Yuma, La Paz, and Mohave Counties. The Task Force designated the Western Passage as follows on January 31, 2006: - United States Route 195 to Route 95 from San Luis to its intersection with I-40 - I-40 to its intersection with Route 93 in the vicinity of Kingman. The Arizona State Transportation Board also stated its support in 2006. The Western Passage continues to be considered in the Building a Quality Arizona studies cited above. http://www.canamex.org/PDF/CCC_013106_MTG_Summary.pdf Final Corridor Location Report & Environmental Overview, SR 95 Realignment, Lake Havasu Area. August 2009 ADOT, Mohave County, and Lake Havasu City, in coordination with FHWA and BLM, conducted a study of potential corridors in which to realign the portion of SR 95 that passes through Lake Havasu City, to meet travel demand in Western Arizona. SR 95 would potentially be realigned between Milepost (MP) 175 and MP 191 to a new corridor east of Lake Havasu City. http://www.azdot.gov/highways/districts/kingman/SR95_Realignment.asp 2003 Arizona Climbing Lanes and Passing Lane Prioritization, May 2004. This study identifies and prioritizes climbing lane and passing lane projects to be considered on State Routes for the ADOT Five-Year Transportation Facilities Construction Program. Arizona Access Management Study, Temporarily suspended. ADOT has been conducting a statewide access management study to develop an access management classification system for the State Highways, and to develop a comprehensive access management manual to guide access management on State Routes. Access categories have been proposed for State Routes throughout the state. http://www.azaccessmanagement.com/ Access Management Study State Route 95, I-40 to Bill Williams Bridge, July 2004. The purpose of this study was to prepare an access management plan for SR 95 from I-40 to Bill Williams Bridge, to maintain reasonable future service levels, capacity, and safety along SR 95. Goals of the study were: 1. Resolve major planning issues prior to the initiation of project programming and engineering development. 2. Preserve needed transportation right-of-way. 3. Develop a list of locally approved access control design elements. 4. Obtain local-ADOT consensus on access management. Lima & Associates Final Report – Page 11 TABLE 2.1. SUMMARY OF STUDIES AND PLANS (Continued) Arizona Transit Needs Study, May 2008. ADOT worked with state, regional, and local stakeholders to identify rural transit needs and develop regionally-based solutions to rural public transportation in Arizona. The Study establishes Arizona's long-term strategic direction for rural transit service provision. http://mpd.azdot.gov/transit/ArizonaRuralTransitNeedsStudy.asp Arizona Statewide Bicycle and Pedestrian Plan, 2006. The Arizona Statewide Bicycle and Pedestrian Plan provides a long-term plan for a statewide system of interconnected bicycle facilities that will guide ADOT transportation decisions relating to bicycle and pedestrian travel, planning, and facility development. Multimodal Freight Analysis Study, 2008. Describes and evaluates Arizona's existing freight infrastructure, including SR 95 and the Lake Havasu City airport. The Study identifies unmet needs and recommends projects for improving the efficiency of the movement, collection, and distribution of freight. http://mpd.azdot.gov/planning/freightstudy.php State Transportation Board Policies, Rev. 2003. Presents policies pertaining to the following areas; priority programs; establishing, altering or vacating highways; construction contracts, accelerated funding mechanisms; local government airport grants; and designating scenic or historic highways. Local Studies and Plans Lake Havasu City SATS Update, 2005. The purpose of the SATS was to evaluate future travel demand throughout the City and to develop a roadway plan to meet the demand. The City had prepared its first SATS in 1991 and had previously updated that study in 1997. Lake Havasu City Community Investment (CIP) Program. Community Investment Program includes many varied projects. Public Works project categories are streets and drainage (together), water, and sewer. Some projects in the NHA are Air Industrial Park-Phase I, and State Route 95 Landscaping-Phase I. Lake Havasu City General Plan 2002, as revised through 2008. Presents an overall citywide plan for development in Lake Havasu City. The plan includes five elements: the Land Use, Growth Management, Transportation/Circulation, Open Space and Recreation, and Public Facilities and Services/Cost of Development elements. Lake Havasu City Annexation Policy Plan, May 2008. The plan provides Lake Havasu City elected officials information and strategies for future annexation of lands adjacent to the existing corporate boundaries. Airport Master Plan for Lake Havasu City Municipal Airport (2008 update), 2008. This study update evaluates the airport's capabilities and role, forecasts future aviation demand, and plans for timely development of new or expanded facilities. The plan was adopted in February 2009. Lima & Associates Final Report – Page 12 TABLE 2.1. SUMMARY OF STUDIES AND PLANS (Continued) Lake Havasu City Trails Plan, May 2006. This plan details recreational trip attractors, related planning efforts, existing trails network, Arizona state trails system, proposed trails network, trail design guidelines, trail plan cost estimate, and potential funding programs. The Plan briefly mentions the bicycle and pedestrian network that was identified in the 1998 Pedestrian and Bicycle Plan, but there is no other mention of bike paths. Approximately five trails in this plan run through or could connect to the NHA. Lake Havasu City Pedestrian & Bicycle Plan, 1998. The plan mapped a network of sidewalks, multi-use paths, and bike routes using striping and signing to integrate with the existing roadway system and to provide safe travel for transportation and recreation purposes. Two planned pedestrian walks, the "Sand Dunes" and the "Favorite Short Walk," are in the NHA. Other paths end at the edge of the NHA and could be extended into the NHA if that were appropriate to the design of future development. Lake Havasu City Parks Master Plan, Mohave Community College Park Site, 2005. This undeveloped Park Site is in Township 14N, Range 19W, Section 30, just north of existing neighborhoods. Its major motorized access is to be from the proposed SR 95 bypass, while there are other access points around the periphery. The site is planned for a variety of recreational uses both passive and active (including individual and team sports) and some special facilities such as an astronomy science center. Washes in the park would be preserved to serve their natural drainage function. Mohave County, AZ General Plan, 1995, as revised through 2005. The Mohave General Plan is the overall plan for development of most of the unincorporated County. The plan includes the following elements Natural Resources, Land Use, Housing, Economic Development, Public Infrastructure (including Transportation) and Public Facilities. Western Arizona Regional Framework Study (BQAZ) A consortium of state, regional, and local stakeholders is working on the planning process Building a Quality Arizona for state transportation infrastructure needs. As part of this process, regional framework studies will feed into the statewide transportation planning framework. The framework studies are long-range visionary plans focusing on transportation needs in the 2030-2050 timeframe. The Western Arizona Region includes Mohave, La Paz, and Yuma Counties. Products completed to date include an inventory and analysis of the existing and future conditions gathered from previous and current studies. Some work has been completed on population and employment forecasts and the development of a statewide travel demand model. The concepts for the Lake Havasu City area in the three scenarios are described in Table 2.2. Lima & Associates Final Report – Page 13 TABLE 2.2. WESTERN ARIZONA TRI-CITY AREA, REGIONAL FRAMEWORK STUDY: LAKE HAVASU AREA SCENARIOS, 2050 Scenario Theme Common Characteristics Other Characteristics A Personal Vehicle Mobility Intercity bus connections to Bullhead City and Kingman. B Transit Mobility Passenger Rail, connecting to Kingman and Parker. Rail/bus connection to Bullhead City. C Focused Growth All three scenarios include a SR 95 bypass to the east, an upgrade of the existing SR 95, and similar local bus service. Passenger Rail, connecting to Kingman and Parker. Rail/bus connection to Bullhead City. A transit center in Lake Havasu City In the Lake Havasu City area, the greatest difference between the scenarios is the presence or absence of passenger rail. Lake Havasu City General Plan 2002, As Revised Through 2008/Lake Havasu City SATS Update 2005 The Lake Havasu City planning area, according to the City's General Plan, includes the entire NHA (Figures 2.1 and 2.2). The General Plan's planning area also extends two additional miles both to the north and east of the NHA. Lake Havasu City's extraterritorial planning authority lets the City plan for future anticipated planning areas and areas of influence. The goals expressed in the General Plan relating to transportation in the NHA are: 1) Provide for the mobility of all segments of the population in an efficient, cost-effective, and safe multimodal transportation system. 2) Develop a basic network of facilities to serve pedestrians and bicyclists. The 2008 Lake Havasu City General Plan update included a Future Transportation/ Circulation Plan map (not revised after 2004), which appears in Figure 2.1. The same plan included a Future Land Use Plan, which appears in Figure 2.2. Lima & Associates Final Report – Page 14 FIGURE 2.1. GENERAL PLAN UPDATE FUTURE TRANSPORTATION/CIRCULATION PLAN FIGURE 2.2. GENERAL PLAN UPDATE FUTURE LAND USE PLAN (September 2008) Lima & Associates Final Report – Page 15 Mohave County AZ General Plan 1995, as Revised through 2005 The Land Use Diagrams of the Mohave County General Plan show land uses in various "development subareas" of the County, one of which is the Lake Havasu "Urban Development Area". The unincorporated portion of the NHA and Desert Hills are within that subarea. Desert Hills is just west of the intersection of SR 95 and Chenoweth Blvd, and is directly adjacent to the NHA, containing several subdivisions and resort parks. Desert Hills is a U.S. Census Designated Place. The Desert Hills Fire District Community Association Area Plan was adopted in November 2009 as an amendment to the Mohave County General Plan. Therefore, the Desert Hills plan became available for use in the NHATS as the final draft was being prepared. The Desert Hills plan set a goal for the improvement of an area of London Bridge Road to include curbs, gutters, and multimodal transportation facilities. The Desert Hills community indicated that the improvements should extend further north than the improvements that are recommended in this NHATS (Figure 4.10). Still, the Desert Hills community's goal for the portion of London Bridge Road south of the Shops at Lake Havasu is consistent with the NHATS recommendation of an urban cross-section in the same area. That area could be in the City's jurisdiction sometime during the planning period if area residents expressed interest in a voluntary annexation. SR 95 Realignment, Lake Havasu Area, Corridor Location Study and Environmental Overview The stated purpose and need for the study included traffic delays at area intersections, lack of access control, Lake Havasu City's projected growth, the status of SR 95 as a regional traffic corridor, and the need to improve traffic flow and safety. Prior studies supporting the effort were the SR 95 Access Management Study, the Lake Havasu City SATS, and the Bullhead City SR 95 Realignment Study. The study developed and evaluated corridor alternatives in the North and East Havasu Areas and an environmental overview was performed. Corridor evaluation criteria included: • Traffic • Land Use • Environmental • Public/Community Input • Physical Characteristics The Arizona State Land Department, Lake Havasu City Council (Interim Public Works Director, as directed by City Council), and Lake Havasu City Planning Commission submitted comments on the corridor locations. The ASLD expressed support for Corridor A. The City Council expressed support for Corridor C (without specifying a preference for C1 or C2). The Planning Commission expressed support for the "combination C1/C2 corridor," see Figure 2.3. Lima & Associates Final Report – Page 16 FIGURE 2.3. SR 95 CENTRAL CORRIDOR OPTIONS Source: SR 95 Realignment Lake Havasu Area, Final Corridor Location Report & Environmental Overview, August 2009. Corridors A and C were recommended for further evaluation. Corridor C was preferred by LHC because it avoids conflicts with existing residential areas. ASLD could not endorse corridor C without further study because it potentially restricts future development. ASLD felt that corridor A was most consistent with their charter. Corridors N1 and N2 were also recommended for further evaluation. The projected level of service (LOS) for the no-build alternative was E or worse on existing SR 95 through LHC. However, the no-build alternative is considered a viable alternative and will remain so during the future design concept and environmental studies (NEPA). Lima & Associates Final Report – Page 17 The preferred corridor for the portion of the SR 95 realignment that touches the NHA consists of alternative corridor segments A, C2, N1, and N2. Effects on City development would differ depending on which corridors were ultimately selected. Those effects would be most different in the portion of the corridors that are outside the NHA to the southeast. Inside the NHA, the corridors are not as far apart so the effects would not differ as much from one corridor to another. Recommended access points to the bypass are Craggy Wash Area north of the Lake Havasu City Airport (terminus at existing SR 95), Chenoweth Blvd, Bentley Blvd, and Bison Blvd. The implementation plan in the final report assumed that the project would be completed in two phases, interim and ultimate, with the following characteristics: Interim: • One travel lane in each direction. • At-grade intersections. • Right-of-way acquisition (for the ultimate roadway). Ultimate: • Full rural access-controlled divided highway with two travel lanes in each direction. • Grade-separated interchanges at approximately 2-mile intervals. The traffic analysis study included five travel demand models. The SR 95 Realignment corridor was a part of three of the models, each of which modeled the corridor as follows: • A two-lane highway by 2030. • A four-lane freeway by 2030. • A four-lane freeway by 2040. The final report's recommendations made no assumptions about the years of completion of the interim or ultimate highway. Special Studies Pertinent to the NHA The Airport Master Plan, 2008 The Airport Master Plan for Lake Havasu City Municipal Airport evaluates the airport's capabilities and role, forecasts future aviation demand, and plans for timely development of new or expanded facilities. The planning period of the Lake Havasu City Municipal Airport Master Plan has an end year of 2027, similar to the 2030 end year of the NHATS. The primary objective of the airport master plan is "to develop and maintain a financially feasible, long-term development program which will satisfy aviation demand; be compatible with community development, other transportation modes, and the environment; and be a source of employment and revenue for the City and surrounding areas." Lima & Associates Final Report – Page 18 The land use discussion of this NHATS Report addresses the compatibility of airport land use and airport operations with adjacent land use in North Havasu, including noise, environmental, and safety compatibility. The Airport Master Plan identifies a need for the airport to acquire several acres of land. Lake Havasu City Annexation Policy Plan, May 2008 The City adopted the Annexation Policy Plan to provide information and strategies for future annexation of lands adjacent to the existing corporate boundaries. The Annexation Policy Plan's purpose statement asserts: Annexation of adjacent lands can ensure the City has control of urban development, protection of valuable natural resources, managing traffic and infrastructure, and providing additional revenue sources. The Lake Havasu City General Plan identifies an urban containment area, expanded water service area, and planning area. Future annexations should be strategically implemented to incorporate land within these areas that is currently outside City limits. The incorporation of theses areas will allow for the City to efficiently manage land uses and infrastructure. An Annexation Policy Plan will allow the City Council to make informed decisions on future annexations as well as take a proactive approach to annexation when benefits are in the best interest of the City. The City contemplates an ambitious five-year annexation program (2008-2013), much of which would involve the NHA. More details concerning prospective annexations and their relationship to the NHATS are discussed later in this Chapter. The ASLD notes that there is a statutory requirement under ARS 9-471.A.1 for the approval of any annexation area by the state land commissioner and the selection board. Any annexation of State Trust Land must be in the best interest of the Trust by enhancing the value of the property. Transportation Projects Pertinent to the NHA Air Industrial Park The City continues work on the Air Industrial Park. A detailed plat for Phase 1 of the park was recorded by the City in April 2009. The City is developing infrastructure for the park, especially roadways that can provide appropriate commercial access to each parcel. Additional information about the status of the Air Industrial Park appears later in the Report. Lima & Associates Final Report – Page 19 State Route 95 Landscaping Project ADOT has several projects currently undergoing design for highways in and around Lake Havasu City. The most visible of those projects is the State Route 95 landscaping between Mesquite and Swanson Aves, in the central part of the City, expected to be under construction in spring 2009. The City, Bradley Chevrolet, and ADOT cooperated to install landscaping on SR 95 frontage near Acoma Blvd about two miles south of the NHA. The project is an example of landscaping for aesthetic purposes and to create shade, anticipated along much of the SR 95 corridor. Passing Lane on State Route 95 An ADOT project to design a passing lane on State Route 95 North of Lake Havasu City is underway. As of June 2009, review of the project's 30 percent plans was complete. SOCIOECONOMIC CONDITIONS Lake Havasu City was one of Arizona's fastest-growing communities from the 1970s through the 1990s. The City's growth continued to outpace the state's growth from the year 2000 through 2008, although the growth rate declined somewhat as some neighborhoods in the originally-platted City reached buildout. Employment growth has kept pace with population. Average household incomes in the City are under the averages for the state, but are higher than those in most of Arizona outside the large metropolitan areas. The NHA is largely undeveloped and residential population is considered to be zero for purposes of this Report. A large portion of the current and future travel demand through the NHA will come from outside its boundaries. The remainder of Lake Havasu City to the south of the NHA currently is the area where most trips that use NHA roadways either start or end. The other area that accounts for travel demand through the area is Desert Hills, an unincorporated Census Designated Place that comprises several subdivisions to the west of the NHA. Desert Hills had a population of 2,183 in the year 2000. Socioeconomic information for Desert Hills appears in the same tables as information for the NHA below. Lake Havasu City passed the 50,000 population threshold in approximately 2003. That is an important threshold for transportation planning and funding purposes, because urbanized areas of over 50,000 persons are required by federal law to have a Metropolitan Planning Organization (MPO), a regional transportation policy, and planning body. The governor designates the MPO in cooperation with local jurisdictions. New MPOs are usually designated following a decennial Census, so MPO status is likely in store for Lake Havasu City shortly after 2010. Therefore, most of the future facilities in the NHA would be constructed within the MPO planning regime. Some transportation programs, including certain transit programs, are only available to MPOs. Lima & Associates Final Report – Page 20 Population and Housing Lake Havasu City is the largest City in the Tri-City area of Southern Mohave County, which also include Bullhead City and Kingman. Recent population statistics for the region appear in Table 2.3. The latest statistics showing total and occupied dwelling units for each area in the region are from Census 2000, as shown in Table 2.4. As the City grew, it appears that the average number of persons per household remained within the range 2.3 to 2.4 over the five-year period. The number of households living in renter-occupied units increased slightly from 22 percent to about 27 percent. The median age has remained about the same at roughly 46 years old. The region has formed a Tri-City Council to work together on regional economic development and environmental issues. The NHA is one of the larger developable areas that are not yet developed in the Tri-City area. The highest growth rate in the Tri-City area in the past few years has been in Kingman. Lake Havasu City has grown faster than Bullhead City and at about the same rate as Mohave County overall. TABLE 2.3. POPULATION CHANGE 2000 TO 2008 ARIZONA, MOHAVE COUNTY, AND THE TRI-CITY AREA Area DES Estimate July 1, 2008 Population, Census 2000 Numeric Change Percent Change Arizona 6,629,455 5,130,632 1,498,823 29.2% Mohave County 205,862 155,032 50,830 32.8% Lake Havasu City 55,429 41,938 13,491 32.2% Bullhead City 41,187 33,769 7,418 22.0% Kingman 28,823 20,069 8,754 43.6% Source: Arizona Department of Commerce (previously Department of Economic Security). US Census 2000 TABLE 2.4. POPULATION AND DWELLING UNITS, CENSUS 2000 Area Population, Census 2000 Dwelling Units Occupied Dwelling Units Arizona 5,130,632 2,189,189 1,901,327 Mohave County 205,862 80,062 62,809 Lake Havasu City 41,938 23,018 17,911 North Havasu Study Area 1,691 1,056 770 Desert Hills CDP 2,183 1,463 997 Source: US Census 2000 CDP – Census Designated Place Lima & Associates Final Report – Page 21 Environmental Justice (Title VI Populations) Title VI of the Civil Rights Act of 1964 and related statutes ensure that individuals are not discriminated against based on race, color, national origin, age, sex, or disability. Following the issuance in 1994 of Executive Order 12898, Federal Actions to Address Environmental Justice in Minority Populations and Low Income Populations, procedures were developed to analyze the effects of transportation plans and facilities upon environmental justice populations. This Report addresses the environmental justice protected classes including the elderly (Aged 65 and older), minority and low-income populations, and mobility-limited populations. Environmental justice issues related to transportation in the NHA are addressed throughout this Report in the following manner: • Working Paper 1: Current Conditions - presents US Census data that describes the population living within geographic areas that could be affected by proposed transportation improvements. • Transportation Plan - analyzes whether the recommended projects may differentially affect environmental justice populations. Examines the potential effects, both positive and negative, that those projects may have on the environmental justice populations. Explains the considerations that dictated this recommendation over alternative actions, if any of the potential projects places a disproportionate burden on elderly, minority, low income, or mobility-limited populations. • Public Involvement Activities - concerted effort to reach minority and low-income populations when conducting the NHATS's public meetings. The proportion of the population in each of the four protected classes immediately adjacent to the NHA is compared to the corresponding proportions in the State of Arizona shown in Figure 2.4. Relatively more elderly and working-age mobility limited persons are in the area surrounding North Havasu than in the State. Relatively fewer minority persons and persons with incomes below the poverty line are in that area than in the State. The maps that follow show the densities calculated for the entire blocks or block groups of which North Havasu is a part. Given that North Havasu is not populated, the densities actually represent immediately adjacent areas. Elderly Population: The elderly population was over 24 percent of the total persons in the area surrounding North Havasu in the year 2000, and over 27 percent of the persons in adjacent Desert Hills (Table 2.5). Minority Population: The minority population was over 9 percent of the total persons in the area surrounding North Havasu in the year 2000, and just over 11 percent of the persons in adjacent Desert Hills (Table 2.5). Mobility-Limited Population: The mobility-limited population was over 18 percent of the total persons in the area surrounding North Havasu in the year 2000, and over 31 percent of the persons in adjacent Desert Hills (Table 2.5). Low-Income Population: The population under the poverty level was over 8 percent of the total persons in the area surrounding North Havasu in the year 2000, and over 14 percent of the persons in adjacent Desert Hills (Table 2.5). Lima & Associates Final Report – Page 22 FIGURE 2.4. COMPARISON OF PERCENTAGES OF TITLE VI POPULATIONS 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00% 30.00% 35.00% 40.00% Age 65 and Over Minorities Below Poverty Line Mobility Limits (Age 16-64) Arizona North Havasu Study Area Source: US Census 2000 TABLE 2.5. SUMMARY OF ENVIRONMENTAL JUSTICE POPULATIONS Minority And Elderly Population Area Population Population 65 & Over Percent Population 65 & Over Minority Population Percent Minority Population Arizona 5,130,632 667,839 13.02% 1,856,374 36.18% Mohave County 155,032 31,728 20.47% 24,749 15.96% Desert Hills CDP 2,183 598 27.39% 241 11.04% North Havasu Study Area 1,691 415 24.54% 154 9.11% Mobility Limited And Below Poverty Level Population Area Population Mobility Limited Percent Mobility Limited Population Below Poverty Percent Below Poverty Arizona 5,130,632 1,021,844 19.92% 698,669 13.62% Mohave County 155,032 42,058 27.13% 21,252 13.71% Desert Hills CDP 2,183 745 31.46% 337 14.23% North Havasu Study Area 1,691 1,460 18.82% 693 8.93% Source: US Census 2000 Lima & Associates Final Report – Page 23 Employment The Economy of Lake Havasu City was one of a series of reports sponsored by the Arizona Department of Commerce and was published in 2008. Most of the information was dated 2004. This summary begins with key data from that report. Employment in Lake Havasu City was approximately 18,500 in 2004. The per capita employment was 337 per 1,000 residents. That figure is higher than the median jobs-to-population ratio for Arizona cities and towns. Private-sector employment jobs-to-population was in the top 25 percent of all Arizona cities and towns. The 2000 census counted 17,625 employed Lake Havasu City residents, more than the number of jobs located in Lake Havasu City in 2001. Thus, some Lake Havasu City residents worked in other communities or were self employed, and are not included in the Census Bureau data. Further, according to the 2000 census, a lower-than-average share of Lake Havasu City residents was of working age (the proportion of senior citizens was quite high). Retail trade employed the largest number of persons, followed by the construction category, and the accommodation and food services category. Economy of the North Havasu Area At least two employment centers and some individual employers in North Havasu have economic impacts outside the area. The commercial area including the Shops at Lake Havasu and other commercial properties along SR 95 are patronized by customers from throughout the Tri-City area, tourists, and others. The Shops at Lake Havasu is an open-air center with a center court and other amenities, employing 1,000 persons as of early 2009. Wal-Mart, the largest store in the Shops, opened with 479 employees. Home Depot is another large establishment in the immediate area. The other employment center is the Lake Havasu City Airport and environs. As reported in the Airport Master Plan for Lake Havasu City Municipal Airport, ADOT estimated in 2002 that the airport itself accounts for 82 jobs. Visitor spending accounts for 119 additional jobs and a multiplier effect accounts for 160 more jobs. The total employment associated with the airport is therefore about 361 jobs. Currently, there are some employers in the Chenoweth Drive area. Lowe's is at the intersection of Chenoweth Drive and SR 95, Anderson Chrysler-Jeep-Dodge is directly south of Lowe's, and an RV resort park and other businesses are in the first mile of Chenoweth Drive east of SR 95. Municipal services employ several persons in the airport area. The Lake Havasu City Landfill is 2.5 miles east of SR 95 on Chenoweth Dr and the North Regional Wastewater Treatment Plant is on Airpark Rd. Lima & Associates Final Report – Page 24 The City's industrial park is under development just south of the airport, further described in the Land Use section of this Chapter. PHYSICAL, NATURAL, AND CULTURAL ENVIRONMENTS AND LAND USE The NHA is a portion of Lake Havasu City that is north of the master-planned community developed by the McCulloch Company and incorporated as a City in 1978. The NHA is the closest part of the City to I-40, Bullhead City, and Kingman to the north. The NHA is also closest to the Mohave Mountains, which ring the City on the north and east. Many washes cross the rolling slopes of North Havasu and empty the waters that run rarely, yet swiftly, into the Colorado River to the west. Key physical and political boundaries appear in Figure 1.1. As stated above, the NHA is entirely within the Lake Havasu City General Plan area. Most of the NHA is inside the current City limits. Figure 2.5 displays the land ownership in North Havasu. A large share of the land is held in trust by the Arizona State Land Department. The chart (Figure 2.6) indicates a 73 percent share of North Havasu land is State Trust land. Privately-held lands are present along the SR 95 corridor, and some of the private lands have been developed. Federal BLM land includes the Lake Havasu City landfill (under a public purposes lease to the City), an area in the southeast corner of North Havasu, and more than one square mile east of the airport. The City has assumed ownership of former BLM lands on the site known as the "MCC Park site," to be developed into a future regional park. Finally, the NHA includes a small sliver of the huge Havasu National Wildlife Refuge. Most of the NHA is inside the City government's water service area (Figure 2.5). The water service area is known as the "expanded water service area." The west-central portion of the NHA, while within the City limits, is not served by the City, but rather by the Arizona- American Water Company in the Desert Hills Water service area. Wildlife and Vegetation The bulk of the NHA is upland and in the mixed paloverde vegetative community. A variety of vegetative communities exists in the Havasu National Wildlife Refuge and environs. Native plant associations include the Dalea and Fremont's Cottonwood (Populus Fremontii). Non-native species include the Tamarisk or Salt Cedar (Tamarix Pentandra), which spreads rapidly and consumes large amounts of water. Reduction of tamarisk spreading is of ongoing concern. The river waters at the NHA boundary are critical habitat for the bonytail chub, a native endangered fish. Lima & Associates Final Report – Page 25 Lima & Associates Final Report – Page 26 FIGURE 2.5. LAND OWNERSHIP Refuges, Preserves, and Wilderness Areas Lima & Associates Final Report – Page 27 The NHA includes a portion of the Havasu National Wildlife Refuge, managed by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. The mission of the agency is to manage the refuge for wildlife and A group of special status species has been identified in areas of Mohave County having the same vegetative communities and elevation range as the NHA: FIGURE 2.6. LAND OWNERSHIP, SHARE BY OWNER 73.34% 14.18% 9.63% 2.09% 0.76% State Trust Private Federal (BLM) Municipal Fish and Wildlife Species Status Bald eagle Threatened Bonytail chub Endangered California Brown pelican Proposed delisted Desert tortoise Mohave population Threatened Razorbacks sucker Endangered Southwestern willow flycatcher Endangered Yuma clapper rail Endangered Yellow-billed cuckoo Candidate American peregrine falcon Delisted wildlife habitat. When found to be appropriate and compatible, wildlife-oriented recreation (specifically hunting, fishing, wildlife observation, wildlife photography, environmental education and environmental interpretation) is encouraged and promoted. The lands between London Bridge Rd and the bank of the Colorado River and the waters of the river are a part of the refuge, which provides the visitor relief from the creosote flats and smoke tree/palo verde washes associated with the area. Just south of the NHA, there are two fishing piers in the refuge, located in Mesquite Bay 1 and Mesquite Bay 2. Each bay is set aside for visitor use without watercraft disturbance, is closed to all watercraft entry, and has constructed underwater fish habitat areas. The refuge manager has informed the NHATS consultant that the refuge would not be advocates for changes that negatively affect the refuge's mission, and that the refuge does not have any plans specific to the NHA. No preserves exist in the NHA, although the Havasu National Wildlife Refuge's Havasu Wilderness extends along the Colorado River for 10 miles from a point one-fourth mile north of Fathom Dr north to I-40. The wilderness is within a mile of the NHA at the north end of London Bridge Rd. State Lands The ASLD holds land in trust to provide for 13 beneficiaries, the largest of which is the Common Schools. The Common Schools are those who provide K-12 public education in the State. Many State Trust Lands are leased before the eventual disposition of the lands. Large State Trust Lands that are not leased may be used for recreational purposes, by permit only. All vehicular travel on State Trust Lands must be on designated roads and trails. Over 73 percent of the land in North Havasu is State Trust Land. (Figures 2.5 and 2.6). The land along SR 95, because of its proximity to the highway and other facilities, will likely be marketed first. A sales contract for a parcel of 449 acres in the southwest corner of the NHA (known as the "South of Price" property) was returned to the ASLD because of a mortgage default. The ASLD has cooperated with Lake Havasu City per ARS 9-461.05 and adopted the Lake Havasu City Conceptual plan for State Trust Land inside of the City's planning area in 2004, and has coordinated with the City regarding integrating the Conceptual plan into the municipality's general land use plan. The State Land Commissioner has approved the Lake Havasu City Conceptual plan. Updates to the plan have not been formally approved by the commissioner per ARS. 37-331.03. The ASLD recently noted that as part of the Conceptual plan approval the Department accepted the alignment as shown on the 2004 General Plan for the City. In February 2009 the ASLD also submitted a letter to the ADOT Lake Havasu SR 95 Realignment study favoring Lima & Associates Final Report – Page 28 the selection of the Realignment study's Corridor A pending further analysis, and recommended that the further study compare Corridor A and Corridor C. The next areas ASLD will likely market is the large tracts to the south and northwest of the Shops at Lake Havasu. Portions of each of the tracts are within the NHA and also currently within the City limits. The lands will likely go on the market by 2014. One-half square mile of land east of SR 95 at the south end of the NHA is likely to be the next area marketed subsequent to those areas. Once all of those lands are sold, ASLD will still hold over 40 percent of the North Havasu lands. The construction or final planning of any realignment corridor would likely contribute to the marketability of the eastern NHA's State Trust Lands. Despite the fact that the lands in the southeast portion of the NHA are sensitive mountain preservation lands, the State Route 95 realignment will likely thread its way through this corner of the NHA. However, the current economic recession has affected ASLD both because of the decline in land market conditions and because of the state government budget crunch. The lack of funding has led to a pause in any conceptual land use planning by ASLD. The ASLD has gone on record with a preference for the more westerly corridor (corridor A) for the SR 95 realignment. The final corridor study recommendation was to continue study of both corridors A and C. Note that a fairly narrow corridor remains under consideration in North Havasu; the easterly and westerly corridor options that are to be compared are to the southeast, outside the NHA. Vandalism and trespass on State Trust Lands are of concern and will continue to be so with the large amount of land to be held for many more years in North Havasu. All policing of State Trust Lands is a matter of local police working cooperatively with the ASLD. Some examples of the specific concerns in North Havasu are Off Highway Vehicles blazing trails east of SR 95, and long-term camping without a permit. On a broader scale, it is illegal to disrupt plant and wildlife on, blaze trails across, visit historic and prehistoric archeological sites on, or remove natural products from State Trust Land. Bureau of Land Management Public Lands The BLM's Approved Lake Havasu Field Office Resource Management Plan (RMP) was finalized in 2007. The plan is a guidebook for management of the BLM public lands in the region. BLM works with other local, state, and federal agencies to plan jointly for a combination of federal and non-federal lands. Usually, the areas of mixed ownership that are addressed in RMPs are adjacent to blocks of federal land, and are called interface areas. Havasu Urban Interface Recreation Management Zone (RMZ) • All of the NHA east of SR 95 falls within the Havasu Urban Interface Recreation Management Zone, as shown in Figure 2.7. The BLM RMP describes this area as a "niche" providing "access to public lands with opportunities for hiking, Lima & Associates Final Report – Page 29 Lima & Associates Final Report – Page 30 FIGURE 2.7. SPECIAL BLM AREAS (RECREATION, CRITICAL ENVIRONMENTAL CONCERN) Lima & Associates Final Report – Page 31 equestrian use, Off Highway Vehicle (OHV), wildlife and cultural appreciation, and other recreational activities." Management of this zone should "provide opportunities for visitors and residents quick access to engage in targeted activities and realize benefits to persons, community, and environment," and it should also allow "opportunities for community residents to engage in sustainable personal discovery, while protecting critical resources located in the area." The area is described as open space for the residents of Lake Havasu City, and "partnerships will be sought to help improve this RMZ so that within the life of this plan most responsible visitors will attain a greater appreciation for their public lands and the natural and cultural resources found therein." Primary activities for this zone include hiking, OHV touring, backpacking, equestrian/trail riding, and rockhounding. The Crossman Peak Recreation Management Zone This zone lies adjacent to the NHA on the north and east, and is also shown in Figure 2.7. According to the BLM Approved Resource Management Plan, recreation there will be managed to keep it as a Semi-Primitive area, with "scenic hiking and equestrian opportunities and limited OHV trail riding for personal exploration and discovery." The management objective for this zone is to "provide visitors and residents with a scenic backdrop to Lake Havasu City and associated Lake Havasu special recreation management area and provide access to those targeted activities." The zone should be managed to "provide opportunities for community residents to engage in sustainable personal discovery, while protecting critical resources located in the area." This area also serves as open space for the residents of Lake Havasu City. "Partnerships will be sought to help improve this RMZ so that within the life of this plan most responsible visitors will attain a greater appreciation for their public lands and the natural and cultural resources found therein." Primary activities for this zone, similar to the Havasu Urban Interface, include hiking, OHV touring, backpacking, equestrian/trail riding, and rockhounding. Scenic Area of Critical Environmental Concern (ACEC) Crossman Peak is also a Scenic Area of Critical Environmental Concern, displayed in Figure 2.7. The area of concern is adjacent to the NHA, and extends westward beyond the Crossman Peak recreational zone. Beyond the NHA to the northeast, the ACEC stretches 48,855 acres and includes the Crossman mountain peak. The ACEC will be managed to "protect and prevent irreparable damage" to the following "relevant characteristics and important values," as outlined in the RMP: Relevance: • Significant places of traditional cultural importance. • Natural scenic backdrop or mountain preserve for Lake Havasu City. • Major lambing grounds for bighorn sheep. • Large tract of public land that exhibits high degree of naturalness with little human modification of the landscape. Importance: • The scenic value of Crossman Peak is irreplaceable to the region. • Protects a sacred mountain, sites eligible for inclusion on the NRHP, and priority wildlife habitat from impacts of expanding urbanization in the Lake Havasu region. • Includes large area that provides the region with high opportunity for isolation from the sights and sounds of human development. Archaeological and Historical Resources The NHA is a part of the traditional homeland of the Chemehuevi people, who know themselves as Nuwu. Within a few miles of North Havasu, according to Havasu National Wildlife Refuge literature, "petroglyphs in Topock Gorge trace the stories of early peoples who lived along the lower Colorado River. A few old mines tell a more recent tale of nineteenth century gold prospectors hoping to strike it rich." The former Gold Wing Mine, a surface and underground gold and silver mine, is 1.5 miles north of the NHA. Two former mine sites are within the NHA, but have no record of any historical significance. In its Resource Management Plans, the BLM identifies areas for special land management in a number of the categories that it manages for balanced use. As stated above, portions of the Crossman Peak ACEC were identified as being important for traditional cultural purposes. However, no specific archaeological or historical sites were identified for special management within the NHA. No archaeological or historical sites on the National Register of Historical Places are in the NHA. Environmental Concerns Figure 2.7 illustrates areas of environmental concern within the NHA. Potential concerns include impacts of waste management and treatment facilities, and leaking underground storage tanks. Mine locations may pose environmental and safety concerns. According to information on the Arizona Department of Environmental Quality (ADEQ) web site, Lake Havasu City and southern Mohave County are in attainment of air quality standards. Land Use Current land use in the NHA is depicted in Figure 2.8. The land use categories are similar to those typically included in a City's land use plans. The categories are somewhat more specific, however, than local planning categories, because of information available from the Mohave County Assessor's. Lima & Associates Final Report – Page 32 Lima & Associates Final Report – Page 33 FIGURE 2.8. CURRENT LAND USE Lima & Associates Final Report – Page 34 Zoning. Current zoning in the NHA appears in Figure 2.9. The commercially-and industrially-zoned areas are coterminous with lands that are in the process of development. The remainder of the NHA that is within the City is generally zoned A1, agricultural/rural residential. The original platted area of the City was planned at 33,000 lots anticipated to be occupied by homes with a population of 80,000. Only 5,000 of those original lots are not developed. Due to the limited water resource capacity, the net residential density must remain low enough to keep the buildout population at between 100,000 and 110,000 for all of Lake Havasu City, including the currently platted area, the NHA, and all other annexation areas described in the City's annexation plan (described below). Still, City officials and many residents are open to having clustered development with areas of open space, to yield that "low" average residential density. A number of the master plan zoning categories are likely to be applied in the future in the NHA to accommodate a combination of clustering and open space. The stakeholder meetings for the NHATS focused on a few issues, one of which was stakeholders' current preferences for land development in NHA. As the NHATS is to be the transportation planning response to the land use planning concepts, the stakeholder comments about land use and the transportation system are reported together in Chapter 5. The City's industrial park, comprising three parcels, appears in Figure 2.10, in the context of the areas of existing commercial and industrial development in North Havasu. The City is in the early phase of industrial park development; many floodplain issues have been worked through. The MCC Regional Park would probably be developed soon after the adjacent State Trust Lands were sold. Annexation. Lake Havasu City is to abide by the procedures set out for municipalities in ARS 9-471. Municipalities are also required by Section 37-202 to obtain written approval of the State Land Commissioner and the selection board if State Trust Land is included in the territory to be annexed. Annexations which include State Trust Land now require a pre annexation development agreement which outlines requirements for completing an annexation. The urban containment boundary was included in the 2004 Conceptual Plan and subsequent changes to the City's General Plan have not been adopted by the Commissioner. The urban containment boundary has been discussed as an open space area where there would be no land development. The ASLD asserts that the intent of this boundary may violate the growing smarter statutes (ARS 9-461.06.N) as well as the Conceptual planning statutes (ARS. 37-331.03, discussed on page 27). Actions taken by the City to alter the General Plan (as it affects State Trust Land) without the subsequent approval of the commissioner may not be recognized by ASLD. The ASLD suggested that in lieu of the urban containment boundary the City could focus its open space efforts on those properties that fall within the City's water service area. ociates Final Report – Page 35 FIGURE 2.9. ZONING Lima & Ass FIGURE 2.10. EXISTING COMMERCIAL AND FUTURE AIR PARK Lima & Associates Final Report – Page 36 Lima & Associates Final Report – Page 37 The City adopted an annexation policy in 2008 pointing toward annexation of all of the lands shown in Figure 2.11 by 2013. The portions of the annexation policy relevant to North Havasu are detailed below. Policy: Annexation of areas for the proposed parkway and urban containment boundary. A proposed parkway along the eastern part of the community is expected within the next 20 years. The proposed parkway also designates the urban containment boundary. The urban containment area designates areas the City will consider new development in the next 20-25 years. Portions of the parkway along the eastern portion of the community are not within the City limits. The final alignment of the parkway has not been determined; however, the City should work toward annexation of the areas in and along the proposed parkway to ensure proper planning and implementation of the transportation network along the eastern portion of the community. Policy: Annexation of areas designated for Mountain Preservation. The community has identified areas along the northern and eastern fringes of the community for mountain preservation. The terrain in these areas makes residential development difficult, thus preservation of the natural environment is critical. The annexation of these areas will ensure preservation as outlined in the City's General Plan and Mountain Preservation Task Force recommendations. In Annexation area 8 the typical density might be up to 2 units per acre and the density ceiling is likely to be 4 units per acre. Policy: Do not pursue annexation of Desert Hills and surrounding residential areas at present time. The Desert Hills area in the past has been contentious in regards to annexation and is unlikely to receive the required percentage of property owners to be in favor of annexation. The City should concentrate annexation efforts to the other areas of the community, primarily along the eastern boundaries. The Desert Hills and surrounding residential areas (The Refuge, Lakeridge Estates, Sun Lake Villages, etc) should only be considered on a voluntary basis. ociates Final Report – Page 38 FIGURE 2.11. ANNEXATION AREAS Lima & Ass Roadway Network Characteristics Lima & Associates Final Report – Page 39 Roadway functional classifications were developed to reflect both urban and rural areas in the NHA. Figure 2.13 displays the functional class of each roadway (collector and above) in the NHA. Functional Classification. A functional classification groups roadways by mobility and access characteristics. Mobility represents the movement of people and freight from place to place and access represents the connection between roadways and properties along the roadways. Roads are generally classified into freeways, arterials, collectors, and local roads. Figure 2.12 illustrates the relationship of mobility and access to the road classification. A freeway, for example, provides mobility over long distances with minimal access to adjoining properties. Arterials provide a high level of mobility, serve longer distance trips, and provide access to adjacent properties. Collector roads provide mobility between neighborhoods and commercial areas and access to these areas from arterials. Local streets provide access to individual homes and businesses within neighborhoods and commercial areas. This section presents characteristics of the roads in the NHA including functional classification, number of lanes, and speed limits. This section presents the current road conditions in the NHA. Road conditions discussed include current roadway network characteristics, roadway infrastructure conditions, traffic volume counts, and level of service. Multimodal conditions are discussed in the next section, including transit characteristics and characteristics of non-motorized facilities. TRANSPORTATION CONDITIONS AND ISSUES FIGURE 2.12. FUNCTIONAL CLASSIFICATION: MOBILITY VERSUS ACCESS ociates Final Report – Page 40 FIGURE 2.13. FUNCTIONAL CLASSIFICATION Lima & Ass Lima & Associates Final Report – Page 41 Freeways provide high mobility and limit access to traffic interchanges at selected locations. Interstate highways and urban freeways are typically built to freeway standards and capacities. If the SR 95 realignment is constructed, it is likely that its functional class will be Rural Divided Highway, a class higher in capacity than a Rural Principal Arterial, but not as high as a freeway. A Rural Divided Highway provides high mobility and limits access, with traffic interchanges at selected locations and possibly at-grade intersections at other locations. Adjacent properties do not have direct access to rural divided highways. Arterials serve or bypass the primary centers of activity, carry relatively high traffic volumes, and carry the primary portion of trips entering and leaving the area. Some arterials have full or partially controlled access to improve mobility. The only existing principal arterial found in the NHA is State Route 95, and the two existing minor arterials are London Bridge Rd and Chenoweth Dr. The collector road system distributes trips from the arterials to the local streets. Collector streets also provide traffic circulation within residential neighborhoods and low density areas, and direct access to adjacent property. Fathom Rd, just outside the NHA, is an existing collector street. Local streets provide the highest level of access by providing direct access to residential and commercial properties. Specific local streets are not included in the NHATS, but are visible on the transportation system maps. Pavement Type and Condition. Pavement conditions are reported for SR 95 on the ADOT Pavement Management System. Pavement conditions are rated on a Present Serviceability Rating scale ranging from superior (4.0 to 5.0) to very poor (0.0 to 1.0). All segments of SR 95 pavement are in good or superior condition in the NHA. On the Lake Havasu City street system nearly all paved streets are paved with a two-inch overlay over a four-inch base course. Number of Lanes and Speed Limit. The number of lanes and speed limits appear below for those roadways in North Havasu that are functionally classified. Local roads in Lake Havasu City typically have two lanes and have speed limits of 25 mph. • SR 95, MP 186 to 190, 4 lanes, 55 mph • Chenoweth Dr, 2 lanes, 35 mph • SR 95, MP 190 to 191, 2 lanes, 65 mph • London Bridge Rd, 2 lanes, 35 mph Traffic Volume Data ADOT annualized average 24-hour volume figures appear in Table 2.6, for SR 95 only. North Havasu segments as well as selected segments to the north and south of the NHA are included. TABLE 2.6. SR 95 ANNUALIZED AVERAGE DAILY TRAFFIC Route From MP Start To MP End AADT 2007 SR 95 183.09 Palo Verde Blvd (South) 183.84 Industrial Blvd 28,900 184.49 Kiowa Ave 185.46 Palo Verde Blvd (North) 20,400 185.46 Palo Verde Blvd (North) 187.52 Chenoweth Dr 19,500 187.52 Chenoweth Dr 190.00 North Study Area limit 10,000 225.56 California State Line - East of Needles 227.33 Mohave Valley Rd (Ex SR 95 South) 11,800 2007 ADOT annualized average 24-hour volumes, SHS. Current Level of Service Level of Service is a qualitative measure that characterizes how well traffic is flowing and the perception of traffic conditions by motorists and passengers. Levels of service range from LOS A to LOS F where LOS A represents the free flow of traffic with minimum interruptions and delay, and LOS F represents high congestion with significant delay and occasional blockage of intersections stopping traffic on particular road segments. In an urban area, the acceptable level of service is generally LOS C/D or better. Road Segment Levels of Service. Table 2.7 describes the ranges of volume-to-capacity (v/c) ratios used to calculate the level of service on road segments in the 2005 Lake Havasu City SATS. Table 2.7 also demonstrates that as the ratio of daily traffic volume to capacity increases, the level of service experienced by the drivers deteriorates until it exceeds the road capacity and bottlenecks occur. Figure 2.14 presents photographs representing the various levels of service. In the 2005 Lake Havasu City SATs, portions of Lake Havasu City roads operated at a LOS of D or worse; however, no segment in the NHA had an LOS worse than C. Both Chenoweth Rd and London Bridge Rd operated as a LOS A, while SR 95 functioned as a LOS C with a v/c ratio just over .47. The average annual daily traffic (AADT) volumes in 2007 for the major roadways in the NHA appear in Figure 2.15. These AADT figures are according to the Highway Performance Monitoring System (HPMS). Lima & Associates Final Report – Page 42 TABLE 2.7. LEVEL OF SERVICE THRESHOLDS AND DESCRIPTIONS LOS V/C Ratio Range Description A 0.0 to 0.29 Free flow, low volumes and densities, high speeds. Drivers can maintain their desired speeds with little or no delay and are unaffected by other vehicles. B 0.30 to 0.47 Reasonably free flow. Traffic is noticeable, but drivers have reasonable freedom to select their speeds and lanes. C 0.48 to 0.68 Speeds remain near free flow, but freedom to maneuver is restricted. D 0.69 to 0.88 Speed begins to decline with increasing volume and drivers have limited maneuverability. E 0.89 to 1.00 Unstable flow with volume at or near capacity. Freedom to maneuver is extremely limited. F Greater than 1.00 Gridlock conditions with speeds dropping to zero at times. Source: Highway Capacity Manual, 2000, Exhibit 21-2, p. 21-3. FIGURE 2.14. EXAMPLES OF ROADWAY LEVEL OF SERVICE Lima & Associates Final Report – Page 43 Lima & Associates Final Report – Page 44 FIGURE 2.15. 2007 AVERAGE ANNUAL DAILY TRAFFIC Lima & Associates Final Report – Page 45 Traffic Safety and Accidents Traffic safety issues are concentrated on SR 95, the highest-volume roadway and the only principal arterial in North Havasu. Table 2.8 provides more detailed information on the collisions, the accidents by injury status, and the traffic violations. Figure 2.16 displays the locations of traffic collisions. TABLE 2.8. SUMMARY OF TRAFFIC CRASHES IN NORTH HAVASU AREA Type of Crash No. of Crashes Percent Predominant Violation No. of Crashes Percent Angle 6 9.70% Disregarded Traffic Signal 1 1.60% Backing 3 4.80% Drove in Opposing Traffic Lane 2 3.20% Other 1 1.60% Exceeded Lawful Speed 1 1.60% Rear-End 14 22.60% Failed to Yield Right-Of- Way 6 9.70% Sideswipe (opposite) 4 6.50% Followed Too Closely 1 1.60% Sideswipe (same) 7 11.30% Inattention 9 14.50% Single Vehicle 26 41.90% No Improper Driving 6 9.70% U-Turn 1 1.60% Other 4 6.50% Total 62 100% Other Unsafe Passing 1 1.60% Speed Too Fast for Conditions 25 40.30% First Harmful Definition No. of Crashes Percent Unknown 4 6.50% Overturning 6 9.70% Unsafe Lane Change 2 3.20% Collision with other Motor Vehicle 36 58.10% Total 62 100% Collision with Fixed Object 11 17.70% Miscellaneous 9 14.50% Total 62 100% Injury Severity No. of Crashes Percent Incapacitating Injury Accident 10 16.10% Relationship of Crash to Intersection No. of Crashes Percent Non-Incapacitating Injury Accident 11 17.70% Driveway Access 1 1.60% No Injury Accident 34 54.80% Intersection Related 22 35.50% Possible Injury Accident 4 6.50% No Relationship 39 62.90% Unknown 3 4.80% Total 62 100% Total 62 100% ociates Final Report – Page 46 FIGURE 2.16. LOCATIONS OF TRAFFIC COLLISIONS 2003-2007 Lima & Ass Lima & Associates Final Report – Page 47 Access Management The Access Management Study State Route 95, I-40 to Bill Williams Bridge, July 2004 included all of existing SR 95 within Lake Havasu City. The Access Management Study also addressed the possible SR 95 realignment around Lake Havasu City. The goal of an access management program is to successfully balance the roadway operation needs with the land development needs. The main benefits of an access management plan are the preservation of safety and service. A key tool in maximizing mobility is appropriate limits on the number of access points to public highways from adjoining property. Table 2.9 is an excerpt from the Access Management Study that illustrates typical corridor segments. The NHA includes SR 95 mileposts 186 to 191, so the segments including those mileposts appear in the excerpt. TABLE 2.9. ROADWAY SEGMENTS ON SR 95 CORRIDOR Segment in NHA From MP To MP Type of Traffic Type of Facility North segment (and beyond) 201.2 190.4 Rural type development, accommodate medium to long-distance trips, access to adjacent land subordinate Full access controlled highway, multilane, divided Middle 190.4 187.5 Transitional Urban arterial, medium access control South segment (and beyond) 187.5 184.9 Urban Urban arterial, medium access control Table 2.10, also an excerpt from the Access Management Study, presents a listing of all currently existing driveways and intersections and identifies the status of the access points for the interim and ultimate facility. No time horizon was established when the ultimate level of access control would be implemented, and it was noted that design concept reports would be needed to determine final design of the facilities and final traffic interchange locations. The Access Management Study also included several strategies to be pursued to implement the study recommendations, and to be carried out jointly by ADOT, ASLD, BLM, Mohave County, and Lake Havasu City. ADOT has access categories under development for the SHS. Existing SR 95 in the NHA is proposed to be in the Urban 1 (U1) Category. U1 is proposed to be applied to new urban alignments and to emphasize travel at least at medium speeds, volumes, and distances, with through traffic dominant over direct access service. The statewide access management study was temporarily suspended in 2009. TABLE 2.10. ACCESS POINTS LOCATED WITHIN LAKE HAVASU CITY LIMITS MP, Direction Comment Permitted/Type of Access 189.80 West Old London Bridge Rd New Alignment Yes / Full Access, Signal 189.40 West Center Loop Yes / Full Access, Signal 189.00 East and West Airport Center Yes / Full Access, Signal* 188.70 West* Retail Center Blvd Yes / Full Access, Signal* 188.72 East Driveway Close* 188.55 East and West Driveway Yes / RI/RO 188.04 West Price Dr Yes / Full Access 186.59 West Jacobs Row Yes / Full Access 186.02 West Driveway Yes / RI/RO 185.45 East and West Palo Verde Blvd North Yes / Full Access *Airport Center and Retail Center Blvd full access and signals have been constructed and Retail Center Blvd has full access both East and West. North Havasu Area Transportation Needs: Stakeholder Comments The following table (Table 2.11) expresses both the understanding and opinions of NHA stakeholders as of April 2009, regarding NHA transportation system needs and deficiencies. A decision on a corridor location for any SR 95 realignment would have a major influence upon subsequent planning for the local transportation system. Any reference to the SR 95 realignment options in the stakeholder comments should be considered to reflect the stakeholders' current understanding, but might not refer to the final recommended option for the SR 95 realignment. The recommended location and design of any SR 95 realignment has a bearing on the modeling done for the NHATS. A rural access-controlled divided highway cross section would have different travel characteristics than an interstate/freeway cross section. Some stakeholders favor each of those options at this time. A key question to be addressed by the NHATS was: How many more arterials would be needed through 2030 in the eastern portion of the NHA, beyond the realigned SR 95 and potential frontage roads? That question was answered by using the most current information on the City's preferred densities and conceptual land use patterns in the area. Future network alternatives reflected the resulting travel demand that was analyzed in the sketch planning model. Some information was shared by City Council, the Planning Commission, and City staff regarding densities and conceptual land use patterns. The stakeholder comments (Table 5.7) include several comments on the development of the NHA. Lima & Associates Final Report – Page 48 Lima & Associates Final Report – Page 49 TABLE 2.11. NORTH HAVASU AREA TRANSPORTATION NEEDS AND DEFICIENCIES: STAKEHOLDER COMMENTS Existing SR 95: • The access control recommended in previous plans should be implemented on existing SR 95. • There is limited opportunity to widen existing SR 95 because right of way is not available. • Although legal, it is too dangerous for buses to stop in the traffic lanes of SR 95. • Bus pullout lanes are needed, with the right-of-way to accommodate them. • More bus turnaround areas are needed than are available. Possible SR 95 Realignment, Interchanges and Other Relationships to the North Havasu Area: • The SR 95 realignment would serve through traffic, especially freight, rather than local traffic or regional traffic with a North Havasu destination. • The North Havasu Area will compete with the SR 95 interchange with I-40 (Exit 9) for some, but not other commercial development. • Corridor preservation is important to begin soon for future arterials in the North Havasu Area. • Appropriate signage at the northern end of the realignment and at the Chenoweth interchange could help direct travelers to the commercial corridor on existing SR 95. • There would be, at most, two full interchanges and another one or two off ramps within the North Havasu Area. • The SR 95 realignment right of way should be wide enough to accommodate any anticipated transit options, including buses or passenger rail. • Underpasses beneath the SR 95 realignment should be considered for up to three new arterial roadways in North Havasu. • Bidirectional frontage roads, especially on the south side of the realignment, might be key arterial(s) in North Havasu. • SR 95 realignment frontage road control would transfer to the City only if the City agreed to significant access control. • Developers would be asked to dedicate frontage road and landscape acreage. • The timing on beginning development of the regional park ("MCC site") would likely be upon completion of the realignment. Other Arterials, Street Pattern: • An extension of Lake Havasu Ave to the north parallel to existing SR 95 would work well (several stakeholders). • The terrain and acquisition costs for an extension of Lake Havasu Ave might make it preferable to improve London Bridge Rd. • Lake Havasu Ave and London Bridge Rd perform different functions. Both the extension of Lake Havasu Ave and the improvement of London Bridge Rd may be needed. • Two "stub" streets off Palo Verde would make good North-South arterial connections. • Vehicle fuel costs may be an impetus to adopting more compact development patterns. • Development nodes along arterials, especially a "walkable neighborhood" setting, might serve a maximum number of activities with a minimum of vehicle miles traveled. • Verrado (a Buckeye, AZ development) or DC Ranch "nodes" could be an example for the North Havasu Area. The Foothills has some similarities to Verrado. • Some prefer rural and low-density residential except near the Chenoweth and SR 95 corridors. • North Havasu could have "continuum of care" retirement developments that might be very transit-dependent. TABLE 2.11. NORTH HAVASU AREA TRANSPORTATION NEEDS AND DEFICIENCIES: STAKEHOLDER COMMENTS (Continued) Arterial and Collector Configuration and Design: • Arterials should be in a grid pattern. Arterials should be curved as needed to accommodate topography and drainage. • Arterials should not be curved into a U-shape that would duplicate the "plate of spaghetti" pattern in the remainder of the City (noted by the majority of stakeholders). That pattern is too confusing. • The Bullhead City SR 95 alternate and its arterial intersections were designed and constructed well. • Significant drainage work has been done in the development of the airport and in the "Shops at Lake Havasu" area that is downslope from the airport. Drainage infrastructure may be a large cost factor in the development of arterials elsewhere in North Havasu. • Standard arterial pavement widths will be increased from 54 to 64 feet, including a 5 foot bicycle lane in each direction. • Roundabouts should be considered as an intersection design option for collectors and local streets. • Fire safety and service by Lake Havasu City and Desert Hills Fire District should be a factor in all roadway design. • Signage should be improved throughout the area. SR 95 at the City limits should have a better City entrance sign. • Traffic lights should be synchronized from Palo Verde to the Shops at Lake Havasu. • Lake Havasu City roadway cross sections are usually wide enough for easements; preferred widths electric utility easements are 10 ft. • Access, without obstacles, is the most important requirement for electric line maintenance. • The median of limited access highways would be a preferred cable utility location, from the industry perspective. • Cable in North Havasu is aerial fiber and is the line that is "closest to the ground" of all utilities. Therefore, the utility coordinates with any roadwork, as the aerial fiber could be affected by it. Transportation Funding: • Lake Havasu City should maintain and monitor its development impact fees. Transit: • The SR 95 realignment right of way should be wide enough to accommodate any anticipated transit options, including buses or passenger rail. • A designated park-n-ride in North Havasu might serve regional and local commuters. • Someday the City will have one or two more transit centers and North Havasu may be the best location for one of them. • Activity centers in new developments should be served by HAT at the most suitable locations for transit stops and routes. • Co-location of a commercial node and a high school would generate a high demand for transit. • Increased demand will be from residents and part-year visitors rather than by weekend visitors or tourists arriving by air. • Demand might increase for travel between the Havasu Landing Casino in California and the Shops at Lake Havasu, by a combination of ferry and bus. • While Tri-City transit is of interest, current demand is greater between Kingman and Bullhead City than between North Havasu and either of those cities. • Lake Havasu City should have a transit system more like that in Flagstaff. Lima & Associates Final Report – Page 50 TABLE 2.11. NORTH HAVASU AREA TRANSPORTATION NEEDS AND DEFICIENCIES: STAKEHOLDER COMMENTS (Continued) Trails (Bicycle, Equestrian, Pedestrian): • The Foothills is a good example of how trails could be developed. • Additional transit and trails would be advantageous. • Within residential neighborhoods pedestrians and equestrians prefer dirt paths over curb, gutter, and sidewalk. Environmental Issues: • Wildlife impacts should be limited and mitigated. • Mountain protection areas and the Army Corps of Engineers' regulations regarding washes must be honored when laying out new arterials. • As development occurs, established trails should replace "social trails" now in most washes. • Some perceive that the realignment would be too noisy for residential development to be nearby. Noise mitigation walls would likely be particularly unpopular in Lake Havasu City because landscape viewpoints are so important to residents. • UniSource will meet its required Renewable Energy Standards for Arizona electric utilities, by buying such power and using, e.g., overhead 69Kv transmission lines to serve North Havasu. The solar, wind, etc. would be generated by a provider to UniSource. Lima & Associates Final Report – Page 51 Lima & Associates Final Report – Page 52 MULTIMODAL CONDITIONS Public Transportation Services Havasu Area Transit has five routes, with service six days per week. The green route is the only one that travels north into the NHA (Figure 2.17), with three stops within North Havasu. The northernmost destination and turnaround point is the Shops at Lake Havasu. Total ridership on the HAT system was up 35 percent for July 2008 through February 2009 compared to the equivalent period the previous year. The total rides per month ranged from 9,080 in July 2008 to 10,669 in October 2008. The Shops at Lake Havasu service began in March 2008. Currently, there is one transit center (transfer point). As Lake Havasu City grows, it is anticipated that eventually there will be two or three transit centers. The City does not have an official park-and-ride site. Some commuters park near the transit center and take the green route to the mall. HAT also provides a curbside service to a limited service area for seniors over 65 years of age and qualified special needs customers. Reservations are required 24 hours in advance for this service. Additionally, HAT offers a senior transportation program, which provides free rides to the Senior Center lunch meal Monday through Thursday and rides to shopping and medical appointments Tuesday through Friday. The recent Tri-City Transit Connector Study yielded a daily demand for 59 one-way trips between Lake Havasu City and Kingman, 24 one-way trips between Lake Havasu City and Bullhead City, and 137 one-way trips between Kingman and Bullhead City. Lake Havasu City grade schools and high schools do not have school bus service (middle schools do have school bus service). Some potential, therefore exist, for future public transit to be of service to high school students. However, federal funding regulations do not allow a transit route to have student transportation to and from school as its primary purpose. Some communities have found that there is significant transit use by high school students in cases where a high school is near a commercial area and the commercial area is the primary destination for a route. Trails The City completed the Lake Havasu City Trails Plan in May 2006. The resulting recommendations include five proposed trail corridors that cross, or may potentially connect to, the NHA, as part of a citywide trails network (Figure 2.17). The five relevant trail corridors are listed below. The final trail alignments would be determined through site planning prior to development (in each case the City's terminology was "Trail," but it should be interpreted as a "Trail Corridor"): • Powerline Trail - The Powerline Trail cuts in a northeast/southwest direction along the existing Western Area Power Administration (WAPA) powerline right-of-way. WAPA markets and delivers hydroelectric power in a 15-state region. The trail would be a multi-use, natural surface trail, providing cross-town access and connections to other trails. No formal parking lots are needed, because the trail could be accessed from many locations along streets and washes. • Lakeshore North Trail - The Lakeshore North Trail would be a paved lakeside pathway from London Bridge through Lake Havasu State Park and into the National Wildlife Refuge, at which point the trail would cross in the NHA. Within the refuge, the trail would also have the potential for interpretive opportunities, but with tightly controlled use so as not to disturb wildlife. Parking would be located in the Lake Havasu State Park. • Palm Tree Wash Trail - The Palm Tree Wash Trail would be paved along part or all of the wash, but it may also be integrated with the sidewalks proposed in the 1998 Pedestrian Plan. This wash runs east/west along the northern portion of the City, but just south of the NHA. At the trail's eastern extent, it crosses up into the NHA to connect with the Recreational Beltway trail, and could potentially open up the foothills area to residents within the City center. • Recreational Beltway - The Recreational Beltway would be mostly unpaved winding north-easterly and would be constructed in conjunction with the future SR 95 bypass. The beltway would link two regional parks—North Park and MCC Regional Park— which would allow for alternative access and use of the park's parking lots for trailhead access as well as potential access to more remote areas in the northern part of the City and foothills (such as in the NHA). Parking would be available where the trail intersects with other trails in the network. • SR95-to-Airport Connector Trail - The SR95-to-Airport Connector Trail would be an extension of a paved multi-use trail along SR 95 north to the airport. The trail would make use of existing right-of-way and provide access not only to the airport, but to the activity centers and commercial opportunities in the north. Lima & Associates Final Report – Page 53 Lima & Associates Final Report – Page 54 FIGURE 2.17. PUBLIC TRANSIT AND POTENTIAL TRAILS Lima & Associates Final Report – Page 55 Bicycle Facilities The Lake Havasu City Pedestrian and Bicycle Plan, 1998 identified a transportation network for bicyclists and pedestrians. The plan identified sidewalks, multi-use pathways, and on-street bicycle paths and facilities. On-street routes have striping and signing to integrate with the existing roadway system and to provide safe travel for transportation and recreation purposes. Two planned pedestrian walks, the "Sand Dunes" and the "Favorite Short Walk," were recommended for the NHA. Other paths were to end at the edge of the NHA and could be extended into the NHA if that were appropriate to the design of future development. In 1998, the striped parking lane that already existed on Acoma Blvd was cited as a facility that received much use. In the 2006 trails plan, the Acoma Blvd parking lane and the Acoma Blvd sidewalks were again cited as safe, popular pathways. The Acoma Blvd bicycle route and sidewalks could serve as an example for one type of bicycle facility in North Havasu. The SR 95 Multi-Use Trail was a major facility recommended in the 1998 plan that was constructed and in use by 2006. The trail parallels SR 95 between N. Palo Verde and South McCulloch. The path is a meandering 10 foot to 12 foot paved path, offset from the roadway, with no striping. Minimal signage is seen along the path, and no accompanying landscaping. Extension of the SR 95 Multi-Use Trail to the north into the NHA would be one possibility for a future major bicycle facility. SR 95 is designated on the statewide bicycle network between Bullhead City and Parker. The shoulder of SR 95, varying in width, is available for bicycle use throughout that distance. Municipal Airport The Airport Master Plan for Lake Havasu City Municipal Airport evaluates the airport's capabilities and role, forecasts future aviation demand, and plans for timely development of new or expanded facilities. The Plan is an extensive study of on-airport facilities, both airside and landside. Additionally, the Plan discusses the relationship of the airport property and operations to the surrounding area. One of the effects of airport location of most interest to any community is the effect of airport noise. The Airport Master Plan's noise analysis determined that the existing noise contours are entirely contained within the existing airport property, and the future noise contours would extend slightly off the property to the northwest and southeast of the runway. The FAA guidelines, codified within 14 CFR Part 150, identify suitable land uses for development near airport facilities. The guidelines state that residential development is incompatible with noise at a particular level—the 65 DNL— measured by the Yearly Day-Night Average Sound Level (DNL). No residences or other noise-sensitive development are located within the 65 DNL noise contour. The conclusion was that existing and anticipated future operations at the airport will not likely result in significant noise or compatible land use impacts. 3. FUTURE NORTH HAVASU AREA CHARACTERISTICS This chapter presents future socioeconomic projections and transportation forecasts for the years 2010, 2015, 2020, and 2030 that were specified in the original scope of work developed by ADOT and the City. The projections reported here were developed and adjusted based on previous work by the Arizona Department of Commerce, 2005 Lake Havasu City SATS, and original expectations of the City. However, the reader will notice that later in the Report the recommended transportation plan refers to the range of years of 2025-2030 for the mid-range and 2035-2040 for the long-range planning horizons. This was a result of the TAC members recognizing that due to the economic downturn, the amount of growth originally projected for the years 2010 through 2030 would actually occur in later years than originally expected. Therefore, the TAC decided that the planning horizon years for the final transportation plan would be 2025-2030 for the mid-range and 2035-2040 for the long-range planning horizons. However, this chapter of the Report presents the projections as they were originally developed for the years 2010 through 2030 to preserve substantial work in developing socioeconomic projections and transportation forecasting. ESTABLISHMENT OF TRAFFIC ANALYSIS ZONES (TAZ) The first step in modeling the overall travel demand and its geographic distribution is the definition of geographic areas called traffic analysis zones. The TAZs were established as the building blocks of a geographic framework for the future conditions analysis. The TAZ areas contain the beginning and ending points of trips, while the trips are carried by the roadway network. Both the shape and the size of each TAZ were set carefully in order for the model to faithfully characterize travel in the area: • Shape. The shape of a TAZ is most often determined by using roadways on the network as TAZ boundaries. Barriers to travel, such as a steep slopes or a stream not crossed by a bridge, may also be TAZ boundaries. • Size. In densely developed areas with many major roadways, it is appropriate to have many small TAZs. There are many route choices for households and establishments in such areas, and the many route possibilities can best be reflected by devising small TAZs with many connections to the roadway network. In less developed areas each TAZ is typically larger. The guidelines were applied to the NHA, which resulted in the creation of thirteen (13) TAZs. A secondary consideration in configuring the TAZs was enabling comparisons between the findings of this NHATS and the 2005 Lake Havasu City SATS. The TAZs and base roadway network in the 2005 Lake Havasu City SATS contain little detail for North Havasu, and a prospective SR 95 realignment corridor that served as the boundary for several TAZs is in a different location than in the more recent realignment study. In order to compare Lima & Associates Final Report – Page 56 socioeconomic data, the portion of each 2005 SATS TAZ's population and employment in each NHATS TAZ was estimated, and the data were regrouped into the NHATS TAZ form. Figure 3.1 shows the TAZs in the NHA and in areas surrounding the NHA (numbered 13 through 62). The roadway network is already developed at urban densities serving Lake Havasu City to the south. The additional TAZs permitted comparison to the 2005 Lake Havasu City SATS and the use of the planning model to distribute an appropriate number of trips to arterials outside the NHA. INFLUENCES ON FUTURE GROWTH The Lake Havasu City Planning Commission stated an interest in having the SR 95 realignment serve as an Urban Containment Boundary (in a planning commission letter to Jacobs Engineering, April 22, 2009). This project's TAC indicated in June 2009 that the NHATS land development assumptions should be consistent with the Planning Commission viewpoint. Therefore, no residential development and very little employment were projected for the area to the north and to the east of the SR 95 realignment corridor. The comments of the ASLD concerning statutory requirements and the authority of the State Land Commissioner (Annexation section, page 34) should be noted. The City���s land use planning would be coordinated with the Conceptual planning of the ASLD before there would be any changes in minimum development density for State Trust Lands. Other background data considered included the City's General Plan as amended through 2008, the current zoning map, terrain, and floodplains. A brief description of the data review process appears below. The process resulted in an assessment of where development would be likely, where it would be unlikely, and where constraints might be mitigated through design and additional investment. Land Ownership The bulk of the NHA lands are held in trust by the Arizona State Land Department. State lands adjacent to SR 95 would be the first to be sold and developed, while the sale of State lands would later proceed east along the SR 95 realignment corridor. Land Use Plans and Zoning The Lake Havasu City General Plan was considered in projecting development including land uses and mountain preservation areas. Two other documents reviewed for the previous working paper were also considered: 1) the 2008 City Annexation Policy Plan, and 2) the Mountain Preservation Task Force recommendations for some portions of North Havasu to remain undeveloped, and some portions to be at typical densities not exceeding two units per acre. Some areas outside mountain preservation tracts might be developed at up to four units per acre. Lima & Associates Final Report – Page 57 Lima & Associates Final Report – Page 58 FIGURE 3.1. TRAFFIC ANALYSIS ZONES AND 2030 BASE ROADWAY NETWORK Lima & Associates Final Report – Page 59 Terrain and Floodplains Terrain in North Havasu generally slopes down from the adjacent Mohave Mountains on the northeast to the Colorado River on the west, and the area contains many washes. The terrain will affect the density of future development and the design of roadways and trails to serve that development. The lowest elevations in the NHA are located in the Havasu National Wildlife Refuge on the banks of Lake Havasu, at less than 500 feet. The highest elevation is 2,000 feet in the northeast corner of the NHA. The highest elevation nearby is Crossman Peak at 5,100 feet, 4.3 miles east of the NHA. • The eastern one-third of the NHA has an average elevation of about 1,600 feet and terrain similar to that in the Havasu Foothills development. • The middle one-third of the NHA has an average elevation of about 1,100 feet and terrain similar to that on Kiowa Blvd east of Havasupai Elementary School. • The western one-third of the NHA has an average elevation of about 800 feet and is gently sloping, similar to most densely developed neighborhoods of the City that present some drainage and terrain challenges to development. The draft Flood Insurance Rate Maps were reviewed. Once TAZs were established, TAZ areas were assessed to estimate the rough proportions of each that are not in a floodplain (less than .2 percent annual probability of a flood), areas with a very low probability of flooding, and areas with a 1 percent annual probability of a flood (with base flood elevations and floodways determined). FUTURE SOCIOECONOMIC CONDITIONS Vehicle trips on the NHA's roadway network will start and end in many different places. Many of the trips will be among the homes, workplaces, and other establishments within the NHA. Some trips have one end of the trip (origin or destination) inside the NHA, and the other end outside the area. Some trips are known as "pass-through" trips because they traverse the NHA, although they begin and end outside the NHA. Overview of Lake Havasu Area Future Population, Households, and Employment Lake Havasu City manages its development with a realization that available water resources will limit population growth to a buildout population of 100,000 to 110,000. The question is no longer the likely size of the buildout population, but rather, it is the time period within which the City will be built out. Population projections prepared by the Arizona Department of Commerce in 1997 and 2006 and those used for the 2005 Lake Havasu City SATS were reviewed and shared with the TAC. The TAC noted that indicators of the current economic recession show the City's population has leveled off or even declined slightly (based on the number of residential building permits and water customers). The TAC advised the consultant to assume lower 2030 population totals than were first presented. The final 2030 population projection for the Lake Havasu City planning area, as shown in Table 3.1, was based upon roughly 1 percent annual growth through 2012, followed by 2 percent annual growth through 2030. If the 2 percent growth rate were to continue thereafter, a buildout population of 105,500 would be reached in about 2042. The recession has also been related to declines in employment in the Lake Havasu City- Kingman Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) from 88,400 to 84,700 between July 2008 and 2009. The unemployment rate in July 2009 stood at 10.6 percent and the State of Arizona is forecast to return to pre-recession employment levels in 2013. Those trends were used to project the employment in the Lake Havasu planning area for 2010. TABLE 3.1. LAKE HAVASU AREA FUTURE POPULATION AND HOUSEHOLDS 2010 2015 2020 2030 Population 57,225 64,605 71,594 88,021 Households 24,773 28,006 31,073 38,300 Employment 23,200 29,667 33,076 39,602 Source: Lima & Associates in consultation with Technical Advisory Committee North Havasu Area Future Population and Households The NHA had no year-round population in 2009 and it is assumed that will still be the case in 2010. Since disposition of State Trust Lands has not occurred nor is it in process, there is little capacity for immediate growth. By 2015, it is assumed a parcel or parcels of land east of existing SR 95 (TAZ 10) would be sold to private parties and some residential development would occur. In addition, it is assumed that by 2020 land sales would have continued and residential development would be present in three of the NHA TAZs. Finally, by 2030 there would be land sales further to the east and all of the TAZs south of Chenoweth Rd and the SR 95 realignment corridor would have some development. None of the TAZs would be near buildout by 2030. Gross residential densities in the five TAZs that would have some residential development would range from .5 housing units per acre up to 1.04 housing units per acre. The gross density is calculated as the number of housing units divided by the total number of acres in the TAZ. The most populous TAZ in 2030 was projected to be TAZ 10. After consideration of all of the influences that would recommend clustered development in North Havasu, a possible development scenario for a part of TAZ 10 appears in Figure 3.2. The net residential density in that neighborhood would be similar to the current settlement pattern south of the NHA, in the area north of Empress Dr and Palo Verde Blvd S. Lima & Associates Final Report – Page 60 Lima & Associates Final Report ��� Page 61 FIGURE 3.2. HYPOTHETICAL DEVELOPMENT, TAZ 10 (PART) Source: Lima & Associates' original graphics and calculations The gradual development of the North Havasu TAZs is projected in Table 3.2, which shows the first households in TAZ 10 by 2015, followed by some development in TAZs 9 and 11 by 2020. Population and household density appear in Figures 3.3 and 3.4 for 2020. TABLE 3.2. NORTH HAVASU AREA FUTURE POPULATION AND HOUSEHOLDS Lima TAZ Population Households 2010 2015 2020 2030 2010 2015 2020 2030 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 0 0 412 1,236 0 0 178 535 10 0 750 1,500 3,000 0 325 649 1,299 11 0 0 133 400 0 0 58 173 12 0 0 0 700 0 0 0 302 49 0 0 0 1,164 0 0 0 504 NHA Total 0 750 2,045 6,500 0 325 885 2,813 Source: Lima & Associates in consultation with Technical Advisory Committee Open Space Neighborhood Commerrcial Park Medium Density Residential Arrtterriiall Clustered Residential .5 miles .5 miles 600 homes An area of .25 square miles in TAZ 10 might have a development pattern with varied densities. If that .25 square-mile area were to average six homes per acre on 100 acres, its 600 homes would be 46% of the projected homes in all of TAZ 10. Much of the over 1,400–acre TAZ would be left as open space. Lima & Associates Final Report – Page 62 FIGURE 3.3. 2020 POPULATION DENSITY (PER SQUARE MILE) FIGURE 3.4. 2020 HOUSEHOLD DENSITY (PER SQUARE MILE) Lima & Associates Final Report – Page 63 Lima & Associates Final Report – Page 64 Sometime between 2020 and 2030 the connection provided by the extension of Bentley Blvd to the SR 95 realignment could make the development of a large regional park feasible. The prospective park is further described in Working Paper 1. The municipal park site appears on Figure 4.1 in Working Paper 1. Additional State land sales would ensue surrounding the park followed by housing construction in both TAZ 12 and TAZ 49 by 2030. Population and household density appear in Figures 3.5 and 3.6 for 2030. Future Seasonal Housing Units and Visitor Lodging Seasonal housing units and lodging are not include
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