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Squeeze Play
It's hard to tell just who got squeezed first and the hardest. The equity shorts? The crude shorts? The gold shorts? Nope, those short the Euro are the ones really getting squeezed today.
Take a look at this chart of the $/Euro. Yes, that's 2.5 points (2+%) in about 10 hours overnight, while the U.S. slept.
And once the ball got rolling, it was only a matter of time until it smashed into everything dollar-priced. As I type, crude is up $4.21 to $81.90. The S&P 500 is up 23 points to 1352. And, of course, our precious precious have jumped higher, as well.
And just in time, too! Yesterday in silver was pretty scary. Price hung on the edge of support for most of the day. Had the area between 26 and 26.25 failed to hold, silver would have fallen very quickly. There is still the possibility that a stop-clearing, vomit-inducing drop may materialize if the coming days but it doesn't necessarily have to. Just pay attention and don't panic IF it does.
This next chart shows you how tight things are getting in silver. There is a tendency among chartreaders to see "descending triangles" and think that they will lead to breakdowns in price. I've always thought it was a sort of optical illusion. The downward-sloping line simply has more "eye appeal" and makes you think that the downtrend will carry the day. Look, however, at the strength and duration of the horizontal base. It's much longer than the horizontal line and therefore more likely to win the day. We'll see.
One more silver chart. Here's a 12-hour which shows you the current $27-29 range. Yes, there was a foray above and the recent drop below but, for all intents and purposes, silver has been stuck in this range and basing for almost 2 months.
Gold continues in a similar, basing pattern between 1530 and 1630. If you look closely, the support for gold consistently comes in between 1530 and 1550 and yesterday was no exception. Considerable physical demand below 1550 is the key to this support level.
And just for fun, here are the 5-minute charts for gold and silver. Note two things:
- The initial caps for the day have been set. Gold just above 1600 near 1602 and silver near $28. Further note the significance of $28 on the daily silver chart posted back up this page.
- Rather than acting in tandem, silver peaked a full 20 minutes before gold. Interesting.
That's all for now. The rallies continue and isn't that fun?! Nice to end the week on a happy note for once. Again, this week's CoT will be quite interesting so please check back after 3:30 EDT as I'll be adding some comments then. Also, I recorded a very interesting podcast with John Williams of ShadowStats yesterday. I'll be posting it later today, too.
Thanks again for a great week. It has been stressful but fun. TurdTalksMetals is getting all of its kinks worked out and the initial reviews are positive so I want to thank everyone who is participating. Have a great weekend!
Thank you for supporting TF Metals Report. Your voluntary subscriptions and donations help keep this site alive!
LMAO! That's a great story (as a fellow surfer), and indicative of the 'creep' of government over the years. I'm convinced that much of the 'problems' which the govt is so zealously trying to fix are self inflicted (by govt) either intentionally or unintentionally.
Roberts' decision
All the pundits continue to try to find rays of sunshine in the convoluted decision Roberts presented in the Obamacare case. First, his decisions in both Arizona and Stolen Valor contradict the very statements that he made in Obamacare about trying to find a way to preserve legislation that has been passed into law. Beyond that, everything that the optimists claim is a benefit in the decision could have been accomplished without joining with the liberal contingent (who have no intention of even looking at the law or its arguments but who vote strictly on ideology), overturning the legislation, and forcing the Congress to redo it along more reasonable and well thought out lines. Neither Roberts nor anyone else even needs to have a law degree if they are going to make all their decisions based on politics rather than the law. What was left of our nation died a little more with the Roberts decision.
I thought he was a stand-up guy. So much for that idea. His decision did not enhance the reputation of the Court but caused it to fall further in the eyes of the citizenry as a source of justice and legal interpretation. Too bad, so sad - just keep stacking.
First of all, welcome to
First of all, welcome to Turdville.
I believe that The Silver Cartel has been diligently moving out of their long-held net short position for this reason:
They KNOW the true situation regarding availability of physical silver in size. As bullion banks, they KNOW that they are heavily leveraged with paper silver and that continuing to play the silver game in the face of global, physical demand is a recipe for certain disaster. Also, they want to profit. Instead of covering last year into higher and higher prices, they've been able to do it this year at lower and lower prices. Also note that their total LONG position has increased by 44% in the past 4 months.
The contortions he went through to justify his position are astounding. It would certainly be interesting to know what went on behind the scenes. Sadly, we'll never know. (Until, that is, I'm President Ferguson and we put all of the current politicians and judges on trial for treason.)
"Treason doth never prosper: what's the reason? Why if it prosper, none dare call it treason"
I have been going there for the last ten years and have nothing but good things to report. Puerto Vallarta on the west coast is a wonderful small city. It was originally a fishing village, a silver jewelry manufacturing town and a great place for all kinds of the best tequilas. The homes set into the hillsides have some of the most beautiful vistas one can imagine. Btw, the sunsets are some of the best in the world.
On the east coast, Riviera Maya has the crystal clear Caribbean waters. Playa Del Carmen is a pedestrian friendly big town.
I mention these two places because in all the years I have been going there, I have never seen any crime. I'm sure they have their share but they don't want the tourists involved. Also, generalizing we found the Mexican people genuinely nice, not so in some of the other islands where they say they are friendly but are only interested in your pocket.
Outrage growing.
I wrongly posted earlier that the cheif executive of ulsterbank was giving up his bonus for the year. It was in fact Stephen Hester, leader of RBS group of which ulsterbank is a subsidiary. This even though the RBS and Natwest banks are largely sorted.
Ulsterbank, (nowhere near sorted) is refusing to clarify if Jim Brown, chief executive of Ulsterbank, will be giving up his.
This in the thick of ongoing chaos in his bank, really. The P.R. campaign from Ulsterbank is causing more outrage than the original problem.
Still no money forthcoming, still no deadline for said money. Child benefit, (a universal payment) is paid in a few days, if this is not recieved then a lot of families are going to be in serious strife.
The longer this goes on, the more paper transactions will have to be entered to the system when it is up and running. This is now all over the radio and local news. Epic fail Ulsterbank.
This 'glitch' is fast becoming a crisis for the 4th largest bank here in Ireland.
I do not understand the mentality.
Just thinking it through. Why the hell would you refuse to confirm he is losing his bonus?
We all know why, he wants to keep it.
The arrogance of these bastards is unmeasurable.
He will have to give it up eventually, the backlash from this will be epic. But the public relations damage is done.
They couldn't make this worse if they tried.
Seems quite coincidental that they agree to these fine just now and there is trouble with depositors money. I said it two weeks ago... they needed a bridge loan.
Another one bites the dust. The Royal Bank of Scotland is about to be fined $233 million (£150 million pounds) for its role in the Libor-rigging scandal. It joins Barclays as the first banks to walk the plank in what should be, but so far is not, the most sensational financial corruption story since the crash of 2008.
On Wednesday, Barclays won the race to reach a deal with U.S. and British regulators, beating UBS, which was reportedly the first bank to begin cooperating with international antitrust authorities. Barclays agreed to pay at least $450 million to resolve government investigations of manipulation of Libor and the Euro interbank offered rate (or Euribor): $200 million to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, $160 million tothe criminal division of the U.S. Department of Justice and $92.8 million to Britain's Financial Services Authority.
@ Dagney re: $50K Accessory, et al
I think most of us knew you were playing around with that thing (pun partly intended). After all, what woman in her right mind would actually cut one in half?
That said, while I am not disappointed at your news (that it's not real), it could be that Number 47 is greatly relieved.
An overdue welcome to Turdville, BTW.
You are another positive addition to the discussion here.
Pirate Lady
I just heard from Xty and she wanted to let everyone know that she's doing ok and taking a little time off due to a core family situation that needs her full attention for now.
I'm sure all of TFMR's well wishes will be felt by her and her family and be appreciated.
I have a feeling if the PM's go beserk we'll see a shout out from our favorite Pirate Lady
Libor rate fixing
The only reason these big banks are being fined for trying to rig Libor is that it pisses off the Central banks who believe that Libor rate rigging is their exclusive and sole right. No different that the Mexican drug gangs who are killing each other off over territorial disputes - rate rigging is the territory of Central banks and others are not allowed to infringe on that territory. What a joke this whole deal is - do anything but don't let the market set the rates.
Ulster Bank has said it
Ulster Bank has said it cannot quantify the proportion of its customers' salary and mortgage payments that have been processed.
IT problems have continued for a tenth day at Ulster Bank, Ireland's third largest retail bank.
Today the bank says that "the bulk" of salary payments are up-to-date, but that some customers might still experience a delay in receiving their pay.
That is a bare faced lie! Nobody has received salaries. They only pay them out if you have a payslip with you, they have no record of salaries in accounts. Why isn't the regulator all over this? Why is the media giving them so much slack and publishing their lies? This is the national broadcaster for gods sake!
Read the comments. How can RTE persist with this crap contrary to all the evidence on their own page? Unbelievable.
I honestly wonder how long it will take for this to get out of hand.
@ Baba re: Ethos (The Movie)
By coincidence a business associate sent me a link to this movie recently as well.
I think it's well worth watching for most people, as it discussed topics such as how the world really works, propaganda and how we are controlled (via media and our manipulated appetite for consumer products to keep us distracted), Monsanto and the manipulation of the food supply (to weaken us), the use of tactics such as agent provocateurs to incite violence at events such as G20 (and thereby justify the further imposition of fascist rule), how we are already being RFID chipped (with most people unaware), etc. etc.
I'll add some Youtube links here:
I think one of the best lines in the film is that we have been programmed to be consumers trying to buy our way to happiness in a throw away society.
Disclaimer: Most of what's discussed in the film are things many folks in Turdville already know. Trolls aside, most folks here are already awake, meaning that much of the information presented is not going to be radically different from what they already know.
Apologies: I personally avoid posts of "must see links" to videos that are over an hour long.
Therefore, I try to avoid doing the same to others. For that reason I am posting Youtube links that are each roughly 15 minute segments. While I believe the film "Ethos" is worth watching, these 5 links will allow viewers to quickly skim through the entire film to get an Executive Summary of sorts.
IMO the main suggestion contained in the final link is what, directly and indirectly, most folks are already doing with prepping and the stacking of physical PMs.
Although we like to say that the dollar is worthless, it is actually very powerful as a tool when we can turn the use of it against those you are trying to dominate and control us.
Starting to look like a cover up.
This is the list of top stories provided by RTE. A gay pride march? Really? No mention of Ulsterbank, it is not even on the front page.
- Top Stories
- 1. Foreign ministers holding talks in Geneva on Syria
- 2. Mohammed Mursi sworn in as Egypt's president
- 3. Richard Bruton on trade mission to France
- 4. Man kidnapped and beaten with hammer
- 5. Search for aid workers kidnapped in Kenya
- 6. Thousands gather for Pride Parade in Dublin
- 7. UK government to set up lending rate review
- 8. EU ends police mission in Bosnia
@ancient money
Thanks for your reply.
I have never known what to make of the COT numbers for silver. Or Gold for that matter, ...I think they pull these numbers out of a cocked hat as part of the artful rig that has worked so incredibly well for them. One might note that i do not greatly like these people, in fact i thoroughly revile them, but stupid they are not.
TF tells us that this JPM short position (as reported) has now been taken down by 85 percent, which is pretty astonishing if true. but i only have to look at that foul ferret Genslers horrid face, or listen to that epically duplicitous Chilton crowing his latest ersatz triumph to remind myself that CFTC is bought.paid for. and banked.
Frankly i am with you foursquare, i do not remotely understand Silver at 27, ...as we all know ... if we take the 50 dollar high in the Hunt Corner of 1980, and adjust this admittedly ramped number for 32 years of rampant money creation , factor in the 92 percent drop in above ground inventories in the same period, observe the burgeoning industrial usages for Silver which literally grow weekly, mix and shake it all up, and i come to 300 dollars , not 27.
For several months as this reported COT number has been sharply dropping, I have begun to wonder if , in fact, JPM might be LONG, in fact long up to the gunwales. In the invisible OTC Market which makes Comex look downright honest by comparison.
My thought has been, that yes, they are unwinding that Short all right, picking off 8 bucks here and six bucks there , which when added up, comes to a rather daunting number. Deep triple digits, nice work if you can get it, so, if you were building the mother of all LONG POSITIONS , mixing the metaphor with endless confusing crosscurrents . would seem to be consistent with the manner in which these thieves operate. I respect my enemy, and of course its not JPM per se, though they get to keep their profits, its Uncle,
This is too long, but here are two reasons for my guess that we are in a Policy shift, ie get the Christ off that Silver price and ram it into the hundreds so fast jack and elsie will find it just as dauntingly expensive as gold. . And ditto Gold.
If , as it appears, Gold is managed by pricing it out of reach of Joe Average 99 percent, then blow silver into the hundreds so fast that it too is "too expensive".
The primary reason of course is China who have in mind being the world's new Reserve Currency, and , for them , notoriously patient and incredibly smart, they are hell bent on getting there BUT FAST.
Every second day another bilateral trade agreement materializes, more and more countries say shove it to Swift and simply bypass the dollar , and every second day a freighter of price suppressed PMs pulls into Macau harbor. Swift this is not for Uncle, its witlessly stupid. Criminally stupid, if not downright suicidal.
And when the stevedores regain their feet after laughing their skinny asses off at the rank stupidity of the United States they unload that freighter , refuel and send it back across the Pacific to reload. Backed up, but boats, There are many such freighters.
So perhaps it would behoove Uncle to reprice these PMs and make China at least PAY, perhaps ten thousand for Gold and several hundred for silver, it might slow down the inevitable slightly. Quit playing Chinese roulette on all six chambers,
Second, and admittedly less importantly, its getting more hazardous to blatantly manipulate markets, the banking events in the UK this past week suggest their Regulators might even be somewhat honest, or perhaps the cheques bounced, but if your name is Dimon or Diamond you are not too chipper lately, the winds of change are marshalling.
We are all going to be very very rich, :), the supermarkets will be looted empty, but the pyhrric victory is ours:)
Thats about enough.
Turd stacking options
you don't speak about buying call options any more. Just stacking.
I'm sure I'm not the only one having noticed it.
If prices are going up, one could think that options too are... an option
So, I wandered why just stacking
I rememberd that options have this default clause. If war, famine, armageddon etc. kick in, they become worthless.
Could it be that the thing you are referring to (shortage, cftc silver investigation decision, Salinas Price winning his battle making the libertad official money in Mexico, I don't know), could it be that the thing you are referring to will be one of the sort that will trigger the options default clause? Is this the reason why you are avoiding the options option?
A further thought.
If the thing Turd is referring to will be not a physical shortage but nevertheless triggering the default clause, there will be a lot of money theoretically invested in silver, which is actually not
I don't know the stats but I guess that the most money invested in silver is currently in derivatives, not physical.
So, most of todays silver investors will find themselves suddenly out of the market.
While the silver price is finally going up...
What will happen? My point is not just that they will come back in, but that they'll come back in as quick as possible
My second point is that having been burnt one time, they will be very very careful not to experience the same for a second time
So I 'm not sure they'll go with futures or slv
This will put a big pressure on the physical market
My point is, even if Turd's thing is not a shortage, the process I'm talking about (if the physical market is tight) will probably cause a worldwide shortage
My second point is, if Turd's thing will push the pos up, the process I'm talking about will give a supplementary boost, maybe even bigger than Turd's thing
Trust me, they are bust. The reason no media is covering it is because it is old news - they've been bust for at least 2 weeks now. It's sounding like some of these abused housewives who refuse to leave their abusive spouses. I don't mean to sound rude or curt, but these people aren't messing with your family or your friends - they are messing with your money, and it doesn't get any more important than that. The government won't take over because they don't want to step into the shoes of the people who have already screwed it up beyond repair, plus they are thinking they can hold the parent's feet to the fire and maybe cause them to do something. I'm sure the parent has already written them off (assuming a June 30 reporting period) and is looking to limit their own losses. It's time to just start from ground zero with a new bank and hope that eventually something besides a past due notice might come out of the old one. Keep posting, the reports are very interesting. When the management finally gets to the point whether they have to admit the truth or to plead to incompetence, then we will know that the end is near.
@El Gordo
I am very suspicious of this, we are moving banks Monday, it is a hell of a lot of work for us and a real pain in the ass but it has to be done. Will be keeping the Ulsterbank accounts open but empty just incase there is any compensation forthcoming. It's looking less and less likely. If they manage to stay in business after this I will be astonished.
I can understand RTE, possibly.
Being a government funded news outlet, I could believe they were told to keep quiet.
But the Irish Independent. One of the biggest selling newspapers.
Nothing, not a mention of this on the website.
Those bank customers are certainly a patient bunch....not a single comment about a protest, or for heads to roll. At least it would be more difficult for the news to ignore if a few thousand people marched peacefully through the streets asking for an investigation. Maybe a silent protest, with signs asking "Where's my money?". Amazing that in the age of the internet so many are uninformed. If everyone knew how many accounts were actually affected, maybe there would be more anger and fear. But the government and the banksters want to avoid that at all costs, right? So many victims, and *crickets*. It's hard to imagine that everyone will be made whole.
All i can think about is this.
An ongoing hack affecting at least 100 banks, with 2 billion + stolen. (unconfirmed by any official media outlet but sky news)
Downgrades of several banks in Europe which caused margin calls (RBS was amongst them for 9 million, confirmed)
Makes you wonder how much of the "IT failure" is actually a solvency failure.
Irish Bank Protest
There has little protest that their whole country has been fckd by their politicians, bankers and the EU. Where is the fight? The Troika has been using fear and it has worked. The fear is suppressing the anger. You can scare people as long as they perceive they have more to lose if they rebel. Where's the fight against TSA at airports? That's my theory, for what it's worth.
We are all going to have make choices (or are already) that will make us face our fears, as the forces of fascism get stronger by the day.
@Number 47: The lack of media
@Number 47:
The lack of media coverage does not surprise me at all. Modern news/media organizations are really nothing other than self-censoring propaganda machines owned and operated by TPTB.
In crisis situations
you should always take comfort in knowing that the first reasons given for the crisis are outright lies. First, they probably do not even know the reason but they cannot appear to be ignorant, so they have to say something - anything plausible will do. Later, as additional information turns up, they can modify, amend, or expand upon the original lie, but under no circumstances is anyone allowed to disseminate the truth, even if they know it. Lastly, when it's time to plead in front of the judge, the options always boil down to pleading crooked or pleading stupid. Occasionally someone with a super ego might actually plead crooked, but my experience has been that most of the time they plead stupid, regardless of the number of diplomas on their wall and the number of letters after their name.
in a crisis options have counterparty risk to deal with.
More important, you need a strong good trend to make money in being long options --if flat-you are better off selling options.
Also, if everybody expects something to be volatile, such as silver, the cost of the option is high. Right now silver equity options are about twice as expensive as gold options. SLV GLD.
If you do not really understand how options work you better be lucky.
Ulster Bank: read this one for shits & giggles
Just wow... I especially like this one:
He also countered criticism that the bank was limiting the amount that customers could withdraw.
"We look at the history on the account, we will release the cash to the customers. We are bending over backwards," he said.
"We look at how much you normally take out, how much is in your account, how much is on the payslip. The vast majority of our customers are delighted.
47... I'm afraid this is going to get a lot worse, maybe never better.
Rl199. S&P painting the tape Friday close
I do not think that was the Friday close, maybe Thursdays?