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A 37 years old female suffered from multiple traumas caused by road accident with admittance to emergency room- multiple contusions, cervicalgia(due to whiplash) and contusion-laceration injury to left knee. An MRI scan of the knee was performed two months later (MRI findings are attached below) and the patient was examined by a specialist who gave a diagnosis of medial meniscal tear and femur-kneecap pain in the left knee. A broken medial meniscus of the left knee diagnosis should lead to an arthroscopic operation.
41-year-old male that in the past decade had suffered 2-3 times a year from bilateral knee pain which resolved spontaneously. Last year he had episodes of thumb pain that had lasted for several weeks and had affected grasp movements. The patient had responded to NSAID treatment for 2 weeks. MRI of the right knee showed Mild endoarticular effusion in the sub-quadriceps recess, chondropathy of the femoropatellar joint and lesion of the medial meniscus.


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Tag: mindset
Who Are You Doing It For?
I have to confess a little something…I am an AVID trash tv watcher! The Bravo channel is on my frequently watched tv list (when I have down time) and I love the Housewives and all the other little dramas on that channel! So, as I curled up with a glass of wine one night this […]

subset: commoncrawl


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Adorn your patio space with a delightful classic chaise lounge that is fully adjustable, giving you everything you need to turn your outdoor space into a resort. Featuring breathable mesh seats and sturdy aluminum frames, this chaise lounge offers ultimate comfort and stability. With five adjustable reclining positions, this sleek outdoor accessory allows you to treat yourself to a world of luxurious contentment. Whether you are curling up with your favorite book or taking in the fresh air, our chaise lounge is sure to give you your lazy weekend days back. ALUMINUM FRAME: This chaise lounge is built with aluminum, creating a lightweight and stable frame. This material is rust-resistant which will further extend the life of your product. MESH SEATING: This features seating constructed of outdoor mesh material, making our chaise lounge both flexible and supportive. This lightweight material allows air to circulate and ventilates body heat on a hot day. ADJUSTABLE: Our chaise lounge offers adjustable seating to ensure maximum comfort. This chaise accommodates five different positions, including a fully reclined option. DIMENSIONS: Choose an accessory that is the perfect size for you and your furniture. This chaise lounge is 77.00" W x 26.50" D x 10.50" H and can open up to 77.10" W x 26.70" D x 34.25" H. You will love how much your space can transform with the simple addition of this charming lounge. ASSEMBLY REQUIRED: Some assembly is required for this chaise lounge. All of the instructions and tools needed for assembly are included.
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%A Liu Ke,Zheng Qiaoying,Xu Ruxing %T A Java-Based Access Solution to Heterogeneous Database of Digital Library %0 Journal Article %D 2002 %J Data Analysis and Knowledge Discovery %R 10.11925/infotech.1003-3513.2002.03.04 %P 10-13 %V 18 %N 3 %U {https://manu44.magtech.com.cn/Jwk_infotech_wk3/CN/abstract/article_1489.shtml} %8 2002-06-25 %X
This paper first introduced and analysed several Webbased database access technologies and their limitations. It focused on the technical elements of Servlet and JDBC, also, the implementation procedure and mechanism of accessing method to databases through them. At last, the system solution to accessing heterogeneous database in library based Browser-Server multi-tier model and Java technology is given.


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0300 365 0304
The Living Room is thrilled to announce the upcoming production of Shakespeare's classic play, "Measure for Measure," generously hosted by Abbey Theatre St Albans.
"Measure for Measure" is one of Shakespeare's lesser-known but most powerful plays, exploring themes of justice, morality, and power. The play, adapted for a modern audience by Derek Coe, will feature the talented cast of The Company of Ten, St Albans' oldest and most prestigious theatrical group.
The Living Room is a Hertfordshire-based charity that provides support and resources for individuals and families affected by addiction and mental health issues. The organisation has been a vital resource for many in the community, and the proceeds from the play will go towards breaking the cycle of addiction in St Albans.
The show will run on the 26th of January from 7:30 pm at the Abbey Theatre St Albans, and tickets are now on sale, with all proceeds going to The Living Room. This is a rare opportunity to experience a powerful Shakespeare play while supporting a worthy cause in the St Albans community. Do not miss out!


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Coming Soon!
Camp on Cross Lake – Fosston, MN
Cross Lake Campground
Campers – Sign up early to save $1,000!
$2,000 if you sign up & pay before 12-31-22 and 2023 fee is covered.
After 12-31-22 the camping rates will increase to $3,000/year. The campground is open year round with full water and sewer, Wifi and TV. Guest limit: 1-6 or family, visitors are allowed at no charge (10 visitors per site).
Parking: Two vehicles per site, with lots of room for guest parking available.
Campfires: Campfires are allowed, you can bring in your own firewood.
Quiet Hours: 9pm-9am
Pets: Pets allowed on leash. A dog park will be on-site. Barking dogs will be asked to leave.
Campground Amenities
Free boat slips to the first 20 campers – boat launch on-site
50 ft wide sandy beach & boat landing
Swinging beds & hammocks by the beach
Playground & bouncy houses for kids
Shuffleboard, basketball & pickle ball courts
Canoes & kayaks available to use
Picnic tables will be by the walking paths and the beach
About Cross Lake
Cross Lake is located in Polk County, Minnesota. The lake is 320 acres in size. It is approximately 19 feet deep at its deepest point. When fishing, anglers can expect to catch a variety of fish including; Bullhead, Bluegill, Green Sunfish, Largemouth Bass, Northern Pike, Rock Bass, Walleye, Yellow Perch & Pumpkinseed. Learn more about Cross Lake.
Questions about Cross Lake Campground? Contact Us
Cross Lake Campground Layout
We also have lots available on Island Lake, south of Lengby MN.
Check out islandlakelots.com for more info!


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|5 Reasons To Keep Your Beauty Salon Reservation
H Life is hectic; it's true. There are such a big amount of things that demand it slow and attention. Between work, kids, family and house chores, there's precious little time left over for you. So, it's fully comprehendible why things like salon reservations get pushed to the tip of your priority list. however is it at the end of the "to do" list wherever your next hair trim belongs?
the solution thereto question is, of course, no. There are many reasons why you ought to keep your salon reservation. apart from taking a bit little bit of time and relaxation for yourself, that i do know isn't reaching to inspire you since all of your energy goes toward enriching the lives of others and not your own, there are several sensible reasons why you ought to not decision and cancel your next reservation.
Here are five Reasons:
1. maintaining with hair maintenance saves you time. you recognize however it is, your hair is doing simply fine till that fateful morning on which you notice that your hair is much overdue for a trim. It just won't do anything. So, once hours of making an attempt to oblige your hair into the design that it control superbly simply yesterday you resign yourself to the very fact that nothing except a hair cut can fix your unhealthy hair day. however we have a tendency to all understand that a unprepared hair cut is tough to return by. which means that you just will pay following week some dawdling trying to style your overgrown locks whereas awaiting your reservation. on condition that you'd have unbroken your original reservation. You see, obtaining a daily trim, notwithstanding you're thinking that you'll be able to manage another week or two, prevents this mess from happening within the initial place. A cut that's the proper length and form are going to be a breeze to vogue in the mornings, which will prevent time.
2. Keeping your reservation saves you money. If your stylist has regular opportunities to stay your hair in tip prime shape, he or she's going to need to do less in the long-standing time to keep you wanting beautiful. If you regularly let your style grow out or let your color fade, your stylist will have to do a lot of work to bring your perverse tresses back in line again. More work equals longer, and that we all understand that point equals money.
3. there's ne'er {a better|a far better|a much better|a higher|a stronger|a a lot of robust|an improved} time than nowadays to induce your hair done. Sure, we all assume that we'll have more time next week, that our work load are going to be under it's today. however will that ever very happen? Let's face it; next week can be even as busy as this week. And once you're busy, a bit little bit of R & R will offer you the energy that you just got to keep going.
4. Another reservation is weeks away. Why does one move to your stylist? It's as a result of he or she could be a fantastic stylist and is aware of your hair within and out. Well, if your stylist is that this nice with you, I'm certain there are different purchasers dying for your stylist's services. If you miss this reservation, it might be weeks before you get another one.
5. Keep your reservation out of respect. once you build a reservation, your stylist carves out time from a busy day to cater to you. If you don't show or cancel at the last minute, your stylist can end up sitting around creating no cash once he or she might have crammed that point slot with another guest. Canceling reservations repeatedly might cause you to be placed on a pay beforehand or moment reservation list. or perhaps in some cases you'll be able to get pink-slipped for missing too several reservations.
Granted, generally things happen that build canceling a rendezvous a necessity. once this can be the case, take care to provide a minimum twenty four business hours and schedule as before long as you can. Not solely can your stylist impart you, however your hair will as well.


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France Musique: The Bac Spécialité candidates passed the first stage – written – in mid-May, and are preparing to take the oral exam at the beginning of June. The music major, along with other disciplines, is part of the Grand Oral. What are the most important changes brought about by the reform?
Anne Claire Skibalt: What has changed the most in the reform is speaking. In contrast to the previously reformed baccalaureate option test, in which students performed a piece of music, it now requires students to present creativity as a group. What is interesting about this idea is exactly the way the student participates in a music project: how he will mobilize different languages, different techniques… It is an exam that aims to liberate the student as a musician, from the student as an artist and the student as an enlightened amateur. Especially since in the context of his oral speech, the student will be asked to describe the progress of the project on which he has worked throughout the last year: what did he put together with his group, and what references did he use? This approach creates a situation that is reflective of all functions of music: that of listener, performer and composer. An approach to musical practice is more interesting and is a real complement, including for example for students who have chosen a music major while continuing their studies at the Conservatory.
Another novelty is the importance of collectivism in production. Students present a project with at least one, or even several classmates and high school friends, which is very interesting not only for our teaching, but also for education in general. There are very few group events: in sports, you have to beat another team, for example. While here, it's the group working together on the music project. This develops skills that, in my opinion, go beyond the school's framework: collaboration, collaboration, teamwork, the ability to find consensus around a project and assignment of tasks, and cross-cutting skills so much needed in the business world.
Music of France: The baccalaureate exams begin this year with specialized written exams. To what extent has the written test for music specialization been modified?
Anne-Claire Scébalt: In addition to listening commentary, analysis and comparative commentary based on the work of the limited program studied during the year, the students had to prepare a third part: a commentary on a text bearing witness to contemporary musical life.
What is interesting in this exercise is the candidate's reflection on the musical phenomenon from different angles: economic, social, health-related, etc. For us as educators, it is about getting students to think of music not just as an art or a form of artistic technique, but in context, with all the issues that may arise: the place of the artist, the composer, the creator in society, the form of the concert, listening and its problems… Flexibility of the programmes, we can lead students to very different paths and as close as possible to their reality and desires. At the end of the major, the student will, if desired, be able to move towards different career paths, sound engineering, cultural mediation, and journalism, with a strong enough musical background to fuel his or her career thereafter.
France Musique: The greatest novelty in this reform is the Grand Oral, and majors participate in this test. What does this mean concretely for a music major?
Anne Claire Skibalt: Actually, for the Great Oral, the student is obligated to fill in two majors in the two questions he chooses for the test. But with the programs we have in music there is a great deal of consistency, and then we, the music teachers, have the experience, because it has been so many years since we have been talking only about music in progress, but we consider it with different illuminations: with regard to economics and philosophy.. Courses, it is impossible for us to organize work in transverse with other disciplines. There is no time for discussions with colleagues and students. In my opinion, it will take several years to consider patterns of organization for this. And it will take several years of practice to somehow break the support of students in this ordeal.
The problem of civic education is that it assumes that the student, since he is gifted with speech, then big speech is not a problem. However, at any given time, in college or high school, the teacher is required to work on the oral in its implementation: from the point of view of breathing, standing, vocal skills, all these aspects are necessary for the development of speaking skills. Except for the music teacher. Therefore, if institutions really bet on music, they will have everything to win, including at the event, whatever the system.
France Musique: Has the reform of exams significantly modified the work in the classroom for teachers?
Anne Claire Skibalt: There are a lot of things that are changing and it will definitely increase objective thinking, that's for sure. Especially since with the cancellation of the series, student profiles in the music major are more heterogeneous than before. We are in almost single sessions. Children who have learned music at the conservatory, others sing or play guitar, others don't play any instrument, others have already improvised… they have a unique musical background to them. Anyway, we are forced to build individual courses from scratch. The idea is to support them as much as possible in their needs, in their expectations regarding the post-baccalaureate orientation course.
But the biggest problem for teachers is the deadline. This year's events were postponed due to Covid in May and June, but were originally scheduled for March. In fact, it is assumed that the student has chosen the specialties strictly according to his orientation after the baccalaureate, and for Parcoursup to be able to take into account the observation of the specialties, the examinations must be taken well in advance. However, the March deadline is very difficult to meet, moreover, it is not in line with the way we work. Working on musical skills and gestures to prepare for the passage, including the student's musical project, is not possible during this short period. There is something lopsided about the allotted setup time and skills that the various events mobilize.
France Musique: Specifically, by removing the series (L, S, ES), the reform opened the music major to a more diverse profile of students. Have you noticed a decrease in interest or, conversely, an increase in the number of candidates for a music major?
Anne-Claire Scébalt: We don't have any numbers at the moment, but according to our initial comments, the fact of being able to combine very different disciplines is of great interest to students. And this is new, because before the student made a literary series to get to the music. In the end, this made no sense with respect to post-baccalaureate because it is clear that post-baccalaureate careers are not just limited to combinations of disciplines from the social sciences or humanities. For example, an audio engineer would need music and physics, and now this is possible. It is an opportunity presented to the students which is not only closely related to their orientation, but also in terms of their desire to combine disciplines that could not have been linked before the reform.
And then, according to the first returns and contrary to what we feared, it is not the artistic disciplines that are being abandoned, but rather a minority. But many of us find this abandonment of a major in the last year [l'élève choisit 3 spécialités en première, deux en terminale, op.a.]it is too early because we are still in a course that should remain a generic one which sometimes forces students to make difficult choices that could be detrimental to the future.
What stands out to the contrary is when students choose an art major, they often have a mentoring project behind it. In this context, what poses a problem is the second. The music option is far from being offered everywhere, and it's not derogatory. What we see emerging from this reform are students arriving with real mentoring projects in music at the end of the third. If they're not in a high school in the area that serves music, it's not really. So they could do the second in a high school in the sector without music and join a high school that offered a music major (as a result, contempt) at first, which never happened. In our discussions with the Ministry, we would like to make it clear that it is necessary to facilitate the access of pupils to secondary schools that offer music by way of restriction, because the choice of artistic specialization is not just an extra spirit or ice. On the cake, but for many students, a real career choice.
#reactions #consequences #reform


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Welcome to my blog where you can see the latest sessions, learn more about me personally, and get all the latest details!
Sitting down and getting to know Brandy was great. I'll admit, I didn't expect her interview to focus on other, incredible women, but I'm so glad it She showed me that she's not the only light in her life. That's right! She has a bunch of beautiful women with amazing personalities surrounding her and helping her get where she needs to go. She called them her tribe, I absolutely love that! Check out more of our little chat below.


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|The UK statutory derivative action : an opportunity to bring justice to minority shareholders
|Pitsillidou, Lida
|Issue Date:
|Newcastle University
|In recent years, the law on derivative actions has caused much academic and judicial debate as to what role the UK Parliament sees the new statutory derivative action under the Companies Act 2006 is (or should be) performing. While the purpose of introducing the new statutory derivative action was to make it easier for minority shareholders to bring a derivative claim, the evidence so far suggest that this is not the case. Indeed, although various new cases have considered in varying depths the new statutory derivative procedure, they are still uncertainties as to the application and interpretation of the statutory derivative procedure. It is therefore the intention of the thesis to clarify the actual role and purpose of the statutory derivative action and examine whether it achieves the objectives at which it aims. The thesis, targeting a gap in the literature, approaches the issue of derivative actions from a different angle. Specifically, the aim of the thesis is to investigate whether the new statutory derivative action provides 'commercial justice' to minority shareholders. The thesis argues that, due to Parliament's failure to clarify the actual role and purpose of derivative actions as well as to provide clear guidelines for the courts to follow when determining whether to continue with a derivative claim, it is essential for the courts to embrace a more flexible concept which would be capable of adapting to the changes in the society which the courts aim to serve. The thesis argues that 'commercial justice' is such a concept. However, as no such concept has been used in the context of derivative actions, the purpose of the thesis is to embark upon an enquiry to develop a theoretical framework for 'commercial justice' in chapter two, as this will help the thesis to answer one of the most important research questions: Does the new statutory derivative action achieve 'commercial justice' to minority shareholders?
|PhD Thesis
|Appears in Collections:
|Newcastle Law School
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Mia-Bo Powney
Vacation Scheme Participant, Armstrong Teasdale
Mia-Bo's professional bio / interests
I am a third year student at the University of Exeter, studying History with the intention to convert to law post-graduation. History provides me with the transferable skills - including critical analysis, attention to detail and excellent written communication - necessary and valuable complimentary assets for a career in the legal profession. I am now seeking an internship or vacation scheme for 2023. I wish to gain a further insight into the legal world and have the possibility to learn from some of the brightest legal minds in the country.
I'd like help with…
Interview skills
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I live in
A career highlight
Completing a vacation scheme with Armstrong Teasdale
Joined Guild
Aug 17, 2022


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Over the period 8-13 November, there was a radical change in the war in Afghanistan, with the Taliban retreating throughout the majority of the areas under their control. A week ago, there appeared to be three reasons for this. One was the intensity of the US bombing of Taliban positions (probably with numerous civilian casualties). A second was the equipping of the Northern Alliance with substantial armaments, provided by Russia but substantially financed by the United States. Finally the Taliban leaders appeared determined to withdraw from non-Pashtun areas, some of which had only been occupied by them for a couple of years.
On the basis of this probable analysis, and bearing in mind that the withdrawal from Kabul had been sufficiently efficient to minimise US air attacks on retreating forces, It looked likely that the Taliban intended to retreat to more dispersed rural areas that would be less amenable to air attack. An alternative view was that an almost total Taliban defeat was imminent.
Towards the end of the seventh week of the war, the latter view looked more likely, and it was expected that the remaining Taliban city of Kandahar would quickly be vacated, and that the isolated group holding on to Kunduz in the north would soon surrender.
Given that the United States will now concentrate a very heavy bombing campaign on these two target areas, it is probable that both will soon fall.In the process, and given the nature of the bombing, substantial civilian casualties are likely.
At the same time, the expected collapse of all significant Taliban groups has not yet happened and the unity of the Northern Alliance is questionable. While there is a general view that the war is close to its end, this is by no means certain. Furthermore, the experience of the last two weeks raises a range of relevant issues.
The US/Northern Alliance Coalition
Some three weeks into the war, the area bombing of Taliban forward positions was greatly intensified, and this was accompanied by a rapid re-arming of the Northern Alliance and the insertion of special forces to assist their advance. This amounted to a tacit policy of utilising the Northern Alliance as the ground troops against the Taliban regime, even though the Northern Alliance was of dubious stability and had elements with appalling human rights records.
The reason for the Bush Administrations decision to take this short cut to attempt the defeat of the Taliban was almost certainly the great difficulty that would be involved in getting substantial US ground forces into the region, and the consequent likelihood that the war would continue through next year.
In the event, this military policy had its effect much earlier than had been anticipated, with the result that much of Afghanistan is now controlled by a range of warlords and factions, with a united and representative government rather difficult to envisage. It would be grossly unfair to blame those United Nations officials now trying to facilitate just such a government if they find themselves unable to do so their task is difficult in the extreme.
It should also be expected that the United States itself will not have any great interest in the immediate future government of Afghanistan, even though its military strategy has been responsible for the current state of affairs. It will be much more concerned with further action against the Taliban and the al-Qaida network.
The Intensity of the Bombing
The US bombing strategy intensified dramatically at the beginning of November and by 18 November about 13,500 tons of ordnance had been used in the war, the great majority of it being unguided bombs dropped by B-52 and B-1B bombers in the past three weeks.
Particular use was made of the BLU-82 fuel-air bomb, a weapon originally developed during the Vietnam War. Although only two were used against Taliban positions around Mazar-e-Sharif, their effect was devastating.
The BLU-82 contains 12,600 lb of a mixture of ammonium nitrate and aluminium powder with a polystyrene soap binder. This disperses as a highly volatile fuel which is detonated to produce an effect equivalent to 30 tons of TNT. It is indiscriminate in its effect and is the largest bomb ever used in conventional warfare.
Russias Position
One of the most remarkable beneficiaries of the last two weeks has been President Putins Russia. Having long supported the Northern Alliance, it now finds itself arming the troops (with US funding) and advising and supporting the recent advances. There are indications that forces from Uzbekistan and possibly Tajikistan actually fought alongside Northern Alliance troops during the recent advances, a tactic that would only have been agreed by their respective governments with approval from Moscow, given the influence of Russia in both states.
For the first time since the end of the Cold War, Russia now has considerable influence in Afghanistan, a substantial and unexpected bonus provided largely by the United States. Furthermore, its continuing support for the Northern Alliance allies it with groups of warlords while, at the same time, its own behaviour in Chechnya is unlikely to be subject to criticism from Washington.
US Judicial Developments
Two aspects of the domestic actions of the Bush administration are worth noting at this stage. The first is that large numbers of people of Middle Eastern origin have been detained in the United States. The total figure exceeds 1,000, and it has not always proved easy for their legal representatives to perform their professional functions effectively.
Related to this is the recent presidential directive that military courts be enabled to try those suspected of paramilitary activities. This directive, issued on 13 November, was reported to be the first since the Second World War. Such courts could convene in the United States or overseas, including in Afghanistan, and it would be within the power of Mr Bush to determine who should be so tried.
The trials could be held in private, would not need to involve juries and could give sentences up to and including life imprisonment or the death penalty. A White House spokesperson described the presidential order as an additional tool to use as he sees fit to fight the war on terrorism and bring foreign terrorists to justice.
The United States currently retains its objections to the establishment of a broadly based International Criminal Court.
The pursuit of the al-Qaida network may still take weeks or months, and it is certainly possible that Afghanistan may be entering a new phase in its interminable civil war, but the view from Washington is that the achievements of the past two weeks have been little short of spectacular. Given the hard-line nature of President Bushs international security community (with just a few exceptions) it is highly likely that more attention will now be given to the possibility of taking action against the regime of Saddam Hussein in Baghdad.
This may not develop rapidly, and it is just possible that a coalition involving Russia, France and some regional states may be assembled to put indirect pressure on the regime. More likely is the development of plans for military action, with these primarily focussing on substantial and persistent air attacks to cripple the regime. While there would be serious misgivings in many European and Middle Eastern states, there would be very substantial domestic political support for such a policy.
The Bush Administration is clearly aware of the dangers posed by the government of Mr Sharon in Israel, and would want to maintain pressure on Mr Sharon to re-open meaningful negotiations with the Palestinians. It is also worth remembering that it was in the aftermath of the Gulf War that the previous Bush administration recognised the need for movement on this front.
At the same time, the Sharon government is markedly extreme in its outlook and policies. It is therefore likely to see the events of the past two weeks as reducing the pressure that it was under to limit its action against Palestinian elements. As a consequence, it might be well to expect an escalation of the levels of violence in the occupied territories. The recent difficult reception afforded to a high level team from the European Union, is an indicator of current Israeli government opinion.
There is an assumption that the al-Qaida network has been hugely damaged by the recent Taliban collapse. This may be true, but only to a certain extent. It should be recalled that the network appears to be part of a coalition of groups stretching over many countries and drawing primarily on supporters in the western Gulf states and North Africa. It may also be the case that many key elements of the network have long since left Afghanistan.
It is likely that elements of the network, or other groups loosely associated with it, still have the capacity for further attacks such as those of 11 September. If so, the US action in Afghanistan may prompt such attacks in the near future.
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Sirifort Institute of Management Studies (SIMS Delhi), also known as Sirifort College, is one of the top professional colleges in Delhi. Sirifort College was set up in 1999 under the Aegis of "Surjan Singh Risal Singh Memorial Education Society (Regd). The college seeks to provide rewards to celebrate and encourage excellence in learning and promotes activities to enhance quality education.
SIMS Delhi consistently offers an education that ensures a career for the individual, fulfils society's needs and meets the nation's demands. The college is affiliated with Guru Gobind Singh Indraprastha University. It offers graduate and post-graduate level courses.
This article will provide you with detailed information about the Sirifort Institute of Management Studies Delhi (SIMS Delhi) Fees Structure; Course offered, Admission Procedure, Placement Stats, Cut-off, Facilities available, and complete college review.
|[Page Index]
1. College Summary
2. Courses Offered
3. Admission Process
4. Fee Structure
5. Cutoff
6. Counselling
7. Ranking & Reputation
8. Contact Details
9. Frequently Asked Question(FAQ)
Sirifort Institute of Management Studies
Sirifort Institute of Management Studies aims to impart high-quality professional education in a vibrant academic ambience with a faculty of distinguished lecturers and resource persons from the industry. Intensively involved in stimulating academic work, students will also have ample time for sports, cultural and other enriching activities.
Get latest Admission, Fees, Cutoff etc. of this GGSIPU College
College Summary
Before we complete the college review, let us look at the major details of this university Sirifort Institute of Management Studies (SIMS Delhi).
|Name of Institute
|Sirifort Institute of Management Studies
|Popular Name
|SIMS Delhi
|New Delhi, NCR
|Year of Establishment
|Institution Type
|Affiliated with
|Approved by
|Courses Offered
|B.Ed, BCA, BBA & B.Com
|Official Website
|IPU Colleges In Delhi
|Review this College
|Click Here
|Get Counseling Assistant
|Click Here
Affiliations, Recognition, and other Achievement
- Affiliated with: Guru Gobind Singh Indraprastha University (GGSIPU)
- Approved by: NCTE.
- Aid Status: Private
- Ragging Free Environment
- Special Care/Remedial Classes for Weaker Students
- Personality Development Programme
- Industry Institute Interaction
- 24-hours free Internet Kiosk
- Modern Teaching Methodologies
- Video Conferencing Facility
- Functional English and Public Speaking Courses
- Central Library.
- Cultural and tech fest
Courses offered
Sirifort Institute of Management Studies Delhi is famous for its BCA Programs. Check out the list of some of the Best courses offered by SIMS Delhi.
|No. of Seats
|3 Year
Second Shift – 60
|3 Years
|B.COM (Hons)
|3 Years
Admission Procedure
The admission to various programmes of the Sirifort Institute of Management Studies is strictly by Common Entrance Test (CET) conducted by the Guru Gobind Singh Indraprastha University.
|Admission Procedure
|For admission to the BCA programme, candidates has to clear the IPU CET BCA entrance exam conducted by GGSIPU Delhi.
|For Admission to BBA courses, candidates must be qualified IPU CET BBA entrance test, which will be conducted by GGSIPU Delhi.
|For Admission to B.Com courses, candidates must be qualified IPU CET B.COM entrance test, which will be conducted by GGSIPU Delhi.
Eligibility Criteria:
The Eligibility Criteria and Admission Procedure for different courses offered at SIMS Delhi can be described as follow.
|Bachelor of Business Administration (BBA)
|Pass in 12th class of 10+2 of CBSE or equivalent with a minimum of 50% marks in aggregate* and must also have passed English (core or elective or functional) as a subject.
|Bachelor of Computer Applications(BCA)
|Pass in 12th Class of 10+2 of CBSE or equivalent with a minimum of 50% marks in aggregate* with passing marks in English (core or elective or functional) and Mathematics or Computer Science / Informatics Practice / Computer Applications / Multimedia & Web Technology / Data Management Application / Web Application. Three-year Diploma in a branch of Engineering from a polytechnic duly approved by All India Council for Technical Education and affiliated to a recognized examining body with a minimum of 50% marks in aggregate
|Bachelor of Commerce (Honours)
|50% in aggregate* in 10+2 examination / senior school certificate examination of C.B.S.E . as minimum marks for admission to B.Com with a pass in five subjects (One language and four elective subjects) or an examination recognized as equivalent to that. (i) Pre-University Examination (Two years after ten years of schooling) of an Indian school/college. Intermediate Examination of an Indian University / Board or an Examination recognized as equivalent to that (Pass in Five written subjects)
Fee Structure
|Fee Structure
|B.COM (Hons)
Fee Noted
- The fees mentioned (Approximate) are for the 1st year only and will increase by approx. 5% every year. Each academic year is 2 semesters.
- The mentioned fee structure is subject to change.
The SIMS Delhi is the minimum mark prescribed by the selection board for the admission of students. Aspirants who apply for the Institute must clear the Cutoff for various courses. The Cutoff will be based on various parameters like the number of appearing candidates, the total number of seats, the difficulty level of the examination, and last year's admission record. A Merit list, including the rank of candidates, will be designed on these Cutoff scores.
|SIMS Delhi BBA Cutoff
|Click Here
|SIMS Delhi BCA Cutoff
|Click Here
|SIMS Delhi B.Com Cutoff
|Click Here
Counselling Procedure
This flowchart can best explain the admission process to the SIMS Delhi Counselling Procedure.
How to Fill Application Form
Guru Gobind Singh Indraprastha University only allows an online application form submission mode.
- First of all, visit the official website of GGSIPU.
- Fill in all the details in the application form and upload the scanned copies of the required documents as mentioned in the information brochure.
- Submit the application form, and the registration ID and password will generate.
- Pay the application fee of Rs. 1200 before the last date.
- After submitting the application form and application fee, the admit card will be issued.
- Counselling will be held, and the seat will be allotted based on marks/rank secured by the students in IPU CET.
Document Required
Students should carry the following documents for counselling/interview:
- 10th, 12th, and graduation mark sheets and certificates
- Medical, caste, and character certificate
- IPU CET Admit card
- Verification form and Preference Sheet
- Requisite Demand Drafts
- Affidavit of Rs. 10.
Placement details
Sirifort College of Computer Technology & Management Delhi has established a full-fledged training & placement cell that periodically liaises and interacts with the corporate world to explore the possibility of training and job placement of students. The placement cell organizes pre-recruitment training and discussion programs among final-year students and arranges campus recruitment programs for aspiring and deserving final-year students. The training and Placement Cell of the College provides the following facilities at the college premises.
- Conducting Mock personal interviews and group discussions to make students aware of the selection procedures.
- Summer Industrial Training, Internship and final placement of students.
- Conducting Industrial Visits & Industry Oriented Training Programmes.
- Invite Professional Guest Speakers to impart necessary inputs for the above-mentioned activities.
Sirifort College of Computer Technology Major Recruiters
|Highest Package
|Average Package
Ranking & Reputation
|Name Of Institute
|Sirifort Institute of Management Studies
|College Review
|Click Here
Contact Details
Sirifort Institute of Management Studies
Address: Plot No.8, Institutional Area Rohini Sector 25, New Delhi: 110085
Email: email@example.com
Website: http://www.sirifort.com/
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q. Is SIMS Delhi a good College?
A. Yes, Sirifort Institute of Management Studies Delhi is the best college. It provides excellent exposure and placement and everything you need on campus. The best thing is that SIMS Delhi offers you superb arrangements.
Q. From which university is SIMS Delhi affiliated?
A. SIMS Delhi is affiliated with the Guru Gobind Singh Indraprastha University (GGSIPU) and is recognized by the Bar Council of India (BCI).
Q. Is SIMS Delhi Fee structure expensive?
A. SIMS Delhi Fee Structure is affordable, and the programmes' fees can be paid online.
Q. How can I get admission to IPU 2023?
A. Applicants should qualify for the entrance exam with the qualifying marks to get admission into the University. Admission will be offered into BBA, BCA, LLB, LLM, MBA, MCA & various other courses in the GGSIPU and various affiliated colleges.
Q. How many colleges are under IPU?
A. There are 118 affiliated colleges of IP University 2023 offering UG and PG courses. The list of IPU colleges in 2023 includes both government and self-financing colleges. There is a total of 83 self-financing institutes and 35 government institutes.
Q. What is the annual intake for BCA Course at SIMS Delhi?
A. The annual intake for SIMS Delhi is stated to be 60 students for the BCA course and 60 students for the second shift.


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Irish get Michigan Tech in NCAA opener
SOUTH BEND — Fresh off their 3-2 overtime win over Ohio State to clinch the Big Ten Tournament Championship Saturday night, Notre Dame learned Sunday afternoon it will be the No. 1 seed in the East Regional and will play Michigan Tech (22-16-5) at 3 p.m. Friday in Bridgeport, Conn.
The game will be televised on ESPN2.
"Hey, when you get to the NCAA Tournament, first of all it's a great accomplishment for these guys,'' Irish head coach Jeff Jackson said. "Most importantly, we've got to recognize that in this tournament anything can happen. Last year we were a No. 4 seed and knocked off the top seed (3-2 win over Minnesota) ...''
"That's how close it is. It's like the Sweet 16 in basketball,'' Jackson added about the number of teams selected to the tournament. "If you just picked the top 16 (in basketball) to start with, you know how tough a tournament you'd have. That's what college hockey is all about.''
Michigan Tech earned an automatic spot in the NCAA Tournament by defeating Northern Michigan, 2-0, to clinch the Western Conference Hockey Association's tournament title on Saturday. The Huskies were in the NCAA Tournament last year, also getting in by winning the WCHA tournament. However, the Huskies lost in their first round match against eventual champion Denver, 5-2.
The Irish (25-9-2) are considered the No. 2 seed in the overall tournament, behind St. Cloud State (25-8-6), and ahead of Cornell (25-5-2) and Ohio State (24-9-5).
The winner of Notre Dame/Michigan Tech on Friday will take on the winner of Providence (23-11-4) and Clarkson (23-10-6) on Saturday at 6 in Bridgeport. Providence and Clarkson meet Friday after the Notre Dame/Michigan Tech game. The game will be televised on ESPNU. From there, it's on to Saint Paul, Minn. for the Frozen Four, for the winner, which starts April 5 at the Xcel Energy Center.
The Irish are led by Cale Morris who was named the Big Ten Player and Goaltender of the Year and joined captain Jake Evans and defenseman Jordan Gross on the Big Ten first team prior to the playoffs. The sophomore from Lakespur, Colo., has a 1.93 GAA and a .946 save percentage in 32 games played. He was named a top 10 finalist for college hockey's biggest individual award: the Hobey Baker Award. The final three nominees will be announced on March 29 and the winner will be given the award in between the semifinals and finals of the Frozen Four on April 6.
If the Irish make it to the semifinals, their opponent will be the winner of the Northeast bracket: No. 3 overall seed Cornell (25-5-2), Boston University (21-13-4), Michigan (20-14-3) or Northeastern (23-9-5). Those games will take place in Worcester, Mass., starting on Saturday, with Cornell/Boston U. meeting at 1 p.m. and Michigan/Northeastern following at 4:30 p.m. Both games will be on ESPNews.


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Advanced Time Series Forecasting MethodsView this Special Issue
Forecasting RMB Exchange Rate Based on a Nonlinear Combination Model of ARFIMA, SVM, and BPNN
There are various models to predict financial time series like the RMB exchange rate. In this paper, considering the complex characteristics of RMB exchange rate, we build a nonlinear combination model of the autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average (ARFIMA) model, the support vector machine (SVM) model, and the back-propagation neural network (BPNN) model to forecast the RMB exchange rate. The basic idea of the nonlinear combination model (NCM) is to make the prediction more effective by combining different models' advantages, and the weight of the combination model is determined by a nonlinear weighted mechanism. The RMB exchange rate against US dollar (RMB/USD) and the RMB exchange rate against Euro (RMB/EUR) are used as the empirical examples to evaluate the performance of NCM. The results show that the prediction performance of the nonlinear combination model is better than the single models and the linear combination models, and the nonlinear combination model is suitable for the prediction of the special time series, such as the RMB exchange rate.
1. Introduction
With the persistent development of economic globalization, business contacts among nations get increasingly frequent. As international trade and financial activities are closely related to exchange rate, the status of exchange rate is very prominent. Ding and Ying [1] analyzed the relationship between exchange rate and export trade. The results indicated that changes of exchange rate not only affect the national economic balance but also have an impact on the level of foreign trade, which further influences the economic development of the relevant country. Currently, because China's economy occupies an important position in the global economy, the Renminbi (RMB) exchange rate has a pivotal position in the stability and development of the world economy. For the past few years, with the propulsion of opening and reforming in China, the value of its currency has determined by the market step by step. Under the floating exchange rate system, the exchange rate volatility shows some characteristics: frequent, intense, and sudden. The RMB exchange rate prediction plays a very important role in policy setting, foreign trade, and investment activity.
Traditionally, the exchange rate prediction methods can be classified into two types: fundamental analysis and technical analysis. The assumption of fundamental analysis is that the changes of the exchange rate are caused by the changes of the purchasing power ratio of the two countries. For instance, Grossmann and Simpson [2] used the improved purchasing power parity (PPP) model to forecast the exchange rate. In recent years, due to the increasingly complicated international economic and financial environment, the basic economic factors which affect exchange rates are changing all the time. Hu [3] suggested that the terms of trade, the national openness, and the level of domestic technology have an impact on the RMB exchange rate. It is difficult to predict the RMB exchange rate by the fundamental analysis. However, as a time series, no matter how exchange rate system changes, there is a stable internal structure in the exchange rate. The assumption of technical analysis is that a nonlinear correlation structure exists in time series. Therefore, using implicit information of time series to make trend analysis is easy to implement, and the exchange rate time series prediction model has a great development. Dai and Xiao [4], Xu and Li [5], and Ma and Xu [6] made a prediction of the exchange rate against US dollar by the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model.
Sun and Wu [7], Rong [8], and Xie et al. [9] discovered the nonlinear correlation structure of the RMB exchange rate by the R/S method. Considering the nonlinearity of the RMB exchange rate time series, many scholars studied the nonlinear forecasting methods, and the nonlinear methods become popular gradually. For example, Yang and Wu [10] showed that the support vector machine (SVM) model has the ability of prediction. Kadilar et al. [11], Aladag et al. [12], and Aladag and Marinescu [13] used the neural networks (NN) to forecast exchange rate series. Katijani et al. [14] employed the feed forward neural networks (FNN) to forecast nonlinear time series. Panda and Narasimhan [15] compared the NN model with the autoregressive (AR) model and the random walk (RW) model and proved that nonlinear models are more effective than linear models in forecasting exchange rate time series.
Many studies on predictions indicate that single models cannot fit and analyze the complex characteristics of exchange rate time series effectively [16]. Furthermore, different models have similarities in data mining and analysis; that is to say, there is a correlation among models. In order to improve the forecasting ability, a large number of scholars mixed different forecast models [17]. For instance, Alpaslan et al. [18], Alpaslan and Cagcag [19], and Cagcag Yolcu [20] came up with a hybrid fuzzy approach to analyze time series. Then, Luna et al. [21], Rojas et al. [22], Wong et al. [23], and Zhao and Yang [24] used the fuzzy clustering and artificial neural network (ANN) to solve the problem of time series forecasting. Aladag et al. [25] proposed a new hybrid approach by combining Elman's recurrent neural networks (ERNN) and ARIMA models to forecast the nonlinear times series like the Canadian Lynx data. Egrioglu et al. [26] constructed a hybrid model of seasonal ARIMA, autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH), and ANN to forecast nonlinear time series. By considering that some time series have the long memory characteristic, Aladag et al. [27] combined the autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average (ARFIMA) models and FNN to forecast the tourism data of Turkey. Valenzuela et al. [28] and Khashei and Bijari [29] proved that the prediction of ARIMA-ANN hybrid model is more accurate than single models.
In this paper, we propose a nonlinear combination model to capture the complex characteristics of RMB exchange rate time series. In general, combination models use different models to forecast linear and nonlinear portions, respectively, and combine their results by linear or nonlinear methods. Because the fitting processes of most of the models are similar, their forecast results have some correlations. So, in view of that there are linear and nonlinear relationships among different models, we use the nonlinear function to combine different models. Our approach, called the nonlinear combination model (NCM), combines the ARFIMA model, the back-propagation neural network (BPNN) model, and the SVM model. The ARFIMA mainly simulates the linear relationship and captures the long memory feature of foreign exchange rate, while the SVM and BPNN seize the nonlinear relationship, and the weights of these models are determined by the nonlinear weighted mechanism. Although many research groups have forecasted exchange rate by various models, the focus of our work is on considering the relationship between different models and combining their forecasting abilities. The nonlinear combination model can reflect the characteristics of the exchange rate and make the forecasting more accurate.
To evaluate the performance of the proposed approach, we use RMB/USD and RMB/EUR as the empirical examples. The results show that the NCM outperforms all component models used alone and the equal weights linear (EWL) model. In addition, our model reveals more robust features with regard to the possible structure changes in the data.
The rest of the paper is organized as follows. Section 2 presents the component models of ARFIMA, SVM, and BPNN briefly. The construction of the nonlinear combination model is described in Section 3. Section 4 presents the experimental results based on the real RMB exchange rate time series. Finally, Section 5 is a summary of implications and conclusions.
2. Individual Forecasting Models Used in the Nonlinear Combination Model
2.1. Autoregressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average (ARFIMA) Model
The autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average (ARFIMA) model is a linear model introduced by Granger and Joyeux [30] and is widely used to fit and forecast time series. The ARFIMA model is represented as follows [30, 31]:where is the back-shift operator such that ; is a white noise process; ; ; ; is the number of the autoregressive terms; is the number of the fractional differences; and is the number of the lagged forecast errors in the prediction equation.
We obtain the following equation by the binomial expansion:wherewhere is the Gamma function.
When , ARFIMA is a short memory process; when , ARFIMA is a long memory process; when , ARFIMA is a mean reverting process. Some scholars proved that has a certain relationship with the Hurst value [32] asEspecially, when is an integer, the ARFIMA model reduces to ARIMA model. As proposed by Box and Jenkins [33], the ARIMA model is defined as follows:where is the actual value; is the stationary time series by a th integer difference; and are the autoregressive coefficients and residual coefficients, respectively; and is the white noise.
2.2. Support Vector Machine (SVM) Model
The support vector machine (SVM) model is proposed by Vapnik [34]. It is a learning model without parameters. The principal of SVM model is to construct an optimal separating hyperplane to make correct classification of true output value. The SVM model tries to model the learning method of training data as a function as follows: , where is the weight vector, is the nonlinear mapping to a high dimensional feature space, and is bias. The optimal hyperplane function through minimizing the risk by loss function is as follows:where and are the Lagrange multipliers; is the number of support vectors; is the kernel function; and is the ideal bias. Model parameters are chosen by cross validation techniques. The usual kernel function is the radial basis function as follows:
2.3. Back-Propagation Neural Network (BPNN) Model
Back-propagation neural network (BPNN) model is a feedback network introduced by Rumelhart and McClelland [35], and its structure is similar to the neurons of the brain which transmit signals through the synapse. BPNN has an internal structure composed of input layer, hidden layer, and output layer. Each layer contains one or more neurons. Although there is no mutual connection between nodes of the same layer, neurons of adjacent layers can connect through the adjustable weights, and there is no feedback between the neurons. The BPNN model consists of input layer neurons, hidden layer neurons, and output layer neurons. The network structure of BPNN is shown in Figure 1.
When BPNN receives the input signals, it transmits the signals to the hidden layer like the operation process of the human neurons. Then, the BPNN model transmits the signals from the hidden layer to the output layer, and each neuron in the output layer gets the signals of the input layer. In the BPNN model, we train the learning process before predicting. First of all, we set the initial connection weights. Then, in order to reduce the errors between the actual output and the target output, we correct the weights gradually from the output layer to the input layer.
The calculation process of the output data in hidden layer neurons is as follows:where are the input layer data; is the weight from the input layer neuron to the hidden layer neuron ; are the values from the input layer to the hidden layer neuron ; is the node function; and are the operation values of neuron . is often used as sigmoid function as follows:
The calculation process of the output data in output layer neurons is as follows:where are the output layer data and is the weight from the hidden layer neuron to the output layer neuron ; is the output layer conduction function, which usually is expressed as a linear function.
3. Nonlinear Combination Model
3.1. Construction of the Nonlinear Combination Model
How to combine different models is an extensively studied problem in the academic research. Hibon and Evgeniou [36] demonstrated that the prediction ability of the hybrid model was better than a single model. So, Hassan et al. [37] combined the hidden Markov model, ANN, and genetic algorithm to construct a hybrid model for predicting stock index time series. Aladag et al. [38] combined different models by using artificial neural networks to forecast the index of Istanbul stock exchange (IMKB) time series.
The principal of the nonlinear combination forecasting model is to make a certain nonlinear combination of various results from different forecast models. In the forecasting process, we combine the different models by a nonlinear function. The prediction results of nonlinear combination model are as follows:where are the prediction results of model ; and are the means and standard deviations of the sequence of model , respectively; and are the weights of the nonlinear combination model; and is the prediction results of the nonlinear combination model.
3.2. Determination of the Combination Weights
Determining the weights for combination model is a key process in improving the prediction ability. There are various methods to combine different models, and the simplest one is the linear equal weight method. However, the linear equal weight method fails to notice that there are nonlinear relationships among different models. Thus, we propose another weighted mechanism to determine the parameters of the nonlinear function.
Our proposed weighted mechanism determines the corresponding parameters by minimizing the square sum of the errors (SSE) between the actual and estimated values. But the SSE of testing set is unknown in advance; so, we divide time series into training subsets and validation subsets. The size of the validation set is equal to the size of the testing set. The individual forecasting models are then trained on the training set and the nonlinear function parameters are calculated by minimizing the SSE of validation set as
To minimize SSE, the following conditions must be satisfied:where and .
We simplify it and get the following equations:
Then, we calculate the parameters according to the following equations:
3.3. Evaluation Criteria
In order to evaluate the forecasting performance of the nonlinear combination model, we use the mean absolute error (MAE), the root mean square error (RMSE), and the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). These are defined as follows:where and are the actual value and prediction value, respectively, and is the size of testing set.
MAE, RMSE, and MAPE are the measures of the deviation between actual values and prediction values. The values of these measures are desired to be as less as possible for an efficient forecasting performance.
4. Data and Results
4.1. Data Set
On July 21, 2005, China established a managed floating exchange rate regime based on market demand and supply with reference to a basket of currencies. To test the nonlinear combination model, this study selects the RMB central parity rate against US dollar (RMB/USD) and the RMB central parity rate against Euro (RMB/EUR). Besides, the sample interval is from July 25, 2005, to March 25, 2014. After excluding weekends and holidays, there remains a total of 2101 sample data. The sample data come from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (http://www.safe.gov.cn/). The time series data are divided into training set, validation set, and testing set according to the ratio of 2001 : 50 : 50.
In order to analyze the characteristics of the RMB exchange rate, we list the time series charts and logarithmic return diagrams of RMB/USD and RMB/EUR in Figures 2 and 3. The logarithmic return is defined as , where and stand for the price and return of the RMB exchange rate, respectively.
4.2. Prediction Results
It is well known that the RMB exchange rate has a stylized fact—the long memory feature (see, e.g., Wang and Xie [39]). Therefore, we first employ the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) method, which is proposed by Peng et al. [40] and is widely used to analyze financial markets [39, 41, 42], to quantify the long memory of RMB exchange rate time series.
From Table 1, we find that the Hurst values of RMB/USD and RMB/EUR by the DFA method are 0.5914 and 0.5265, respectively. That is to say, there is a weak long memory feature in RMB exchange rate against US dollar and RMB exchange rate against Euro. So, in this study, we use the ARFIMA model to predict the RMB exchange rate because it can actually capture the long memory of time series. In the ARFIMA model, we can calculate values according to (4), and they are 0.0914 and 0.0265, respectively.
Because the building process of the prediction model of two kinds of the RMB exchange rates is the same, we only take the time series of RMB/USD as an example to build model and estimate parameters for testing the prediction of the nonlinear combination model. Considering that ARFIMA is suitable for stationary sequence and the fitting of nonstationary series makes the spurious regression phenomenon, we transform the nonstationary sequence to stationary. So, we use the EViews 6.0 software to perform the unit root test for testing the stability of the sequence and present the results for RMB/USD in Table 2.
In Table 2, we can find that the ADF value of is −2.5742, which is larger than the critical value under the significance level of 1%; so, is a nonstationary series. In contrast, the ADF values of and are −43.9875 and −35.3466, respectively, which are far smaller than the critical value under the significance level of 1%; so, and are stationary series. Observing the autocorrelation coefficients and partial autocorrelation coefficients of the sequence, we estimate the parameters of the ARFIMA model according to the principle of minimizing AIC value. The ARFIMA model can be simulated by EViews 6.0 and softwares, respectively. We can obtain the forecast results of through the antilog transform of the sequence and denote by the result of the ARFIMA model.
Considering that a month has 20 trading days, we set the cycle of forecast analysis as 20 days. That is to say, we set the node number of input layer as 20 [43]. Since the network with one output layer is sufficient to model most of complex system with the specific accuracy [44] and we want to forecast the price on the next day, we set the node number of output layer as one. BPNN is sensitive to the number of neurons of hidden layer; so, the number of hidden layer nodes in the network has a great correlation with the prediction accuracy. It is well known that choosing the right number of neurons can improve the forecasting ability of BPNN greatly. In this paper, we use the trial and error method to determine the neuron number of hidden layer. Under the condition of the same parameters, we determine the optimal number of neurons in hidden layer based on the large number of repeated experiments with different number of hidden layer neurons.
From Table 3, we can find that when the number of hidden layer neurons is eight, the mean square error of BPNN is the minimum (i.e., 2.3356). Therefore, we set the number of neurons in the hidden layer as eight.
The neural network toolbox and Libsvm toolbox of MATLAB software are utilized in the NCM model. The original data are scaled into the range of when we build the SVM model and BPNN model. Hereby, we denote by the result of the SVM model and denote by the result of the BPNN model.
After forecasting , , and by the models of ARFIMA, SVM, and BPNN, respectively, we combine the different prediction results by the nonlinear weighted mechanism. The comparisons between actual and predicted values for RMB/USD and RMB/EUR by the NCM model are, respectively, shown in Figures 4 and 5. In each figure, we also present the absolute error and the relative error, where the former is defined as the difference between the forecasting value and the actual value and the latter is defined as the ratio between the absolute error and the actual value.
From Figures 4 and 5, we can find that both the absolute error and the relative error fall into a small range, which indicates that the NCM model can capture both the linear and nonlinear features of the RMB exchange rate, and it can describe the RMB exchange rate time series accurately.
In order to compare the performances of different models, we apply ARIMA, ARFIMA, SVM, BPNN, EWL, ARIMA-SVM, ARIMA-ANN, ARFIMA-SVM, ARFIMA-ANN, NCM-r (ARIMA, SVM, and BPNN), and NCM-f (ARFIMA, SVM, and BPNN) to forecast the RMB/USD exchange rate and the RMB/EUR exchange rate. The prediction results obtained from the eleven models for the RMB/USD are summarized in Table 4, and the prediction results from the eleven models for the RMB/EUR are summarized in Table 5.
In order to evaluate the forecasting performances of the NCM model, we compare the NCM-f model with ARIMA, ARFIMA, SVM, BPNN, EWL, ARIMA-SVM, ARIMA-ANN, ARFIMA-SVM, ARFIMA-ANN, and NCM-r. Tables 4 and 5 present the performance results of MAE, RMSE, and MAPE for the eleven models. Obviously, the NCM-f model has much less errors than the other models, which implies that the NCM-f model has the best forecasting performance for the RMB exchange rate.
5. Conclusion
In real situations, the RMB exchange rate time series' characteristics are complex and unknown. Different models only can forecast time series from the aspects of linear or nonlinear characteristics, respectively. However, using single models cannot produce accurate forecasts for the RMB exchange rate. In this paper, a nonlinear combination model combining linear ARFIMA and nonlinear SVM and BPNN techniques was proposed and applied to the two RMB exchange rate time series (i.e., RMB/USD and RMB/EUR). The proposed nonlinear combination model not only can capture different forms of relationships in time series data more effectively but also can grasp the relationship between different models.
In order to demonstrate the effective prediction of nonlinear combination model, we use RMB/USD exchange rate and RMB/EUR exchange rate as the empirical examples. We compare the NCM model with ARIMA, ARFIMA, SVM, BPNN, EWL, ARIMA-SVM, ARIMA-ANN, ARFIMA-SVM, and ARFIMA-ANN and find that the NCM model outperforms all other models. This study indicates that we develop an effective nonlinear combination model to generate more accurate forecasts for an extremely complicated exchange rate time series by combining different models. In addition, the NCM-f model is more efficient than the NCM-r model. The reason is that RMB/USD exchange rate and RMB/EUR exchange rate have a weak long memory feature, and the ARFIMA model can predict more accurately than the ARIMA model. It is worth noting that the nonlinear combination forecasting model is an indeed powerful risk prediction tool for managers and investors. The implication of the wide applications of nonlinear combination model is that the forecasting quality can be improved in many areas where data sets have the complex relationships.
Conflict of Interests
The authors declare that there is no conflict of interests regarding the publication of this paper.
The authors are grateful to the editor and three reviewers for their valuable suggestions that significantly improved the quality of the paper. The research is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant nos. 71373072 and 71340014, the Specialized Research Fund for the Doctoral Program of Higher Education under Grant no. 20130161110031, the Hunan Provincial Innovation Foundation for Postgraduate under Grant no. CX2013A006, and the Foundation for Innovative Research Groups of the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant no. 71221001.
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