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|Match Up
|Lead Time
|San Antonio Spurs v. Milwaukee Bucks UNDER 193.5
|8 h 18 m
15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Spurs/Bucks UNDER 193.5
The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the San Antonio Spurs and Milwaukee Bucks. They've been forced to because the Spurs have gone OVER the total in five straight games coming into this one, which has created some nice line value to pounce on the UNDER.
That OVER run for the Spurs was aided by solid offensive play from the opposition against much better offenses than the one they will be up against tonight. Milwaukee is one of the worst offensive teams in the league.
The Bucks are tied for 25th in the league in pace at 94.4 possessions per game. Worse yet, they rank dead last in offensive efficiency at 93.3 points per 100 possessions. They'll have a hard time scoring against a San Antonio team that ranks 2nd in the league in defensive efficiency, giving up just 95.5 points per 100 possessions.
I look for the Bucks to control the pace in this one since they are playing at home, and to slow it down to a snail's pace. Milwaukee is only putting up 87.9 points per game at home this season while going 2-8 straight up and 7-3 to the UNDER. The Spurs are only giving up 92.4 points per game on the road.
Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (MILWAUKEE) - after allowing 80 points or less against opponent after scoring 100 points or more 4 straight games are 44-17 (72.1%) since 1996. The UNDER is 21-9 in Spurs last 30 road games. The UNDER is 7-1 in Bucks last eight games when playing on 0 days rest. The UNDER is 12-3-2 in Bucks last 17 games vs. a team with a winning percentage of better than 60%. Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday.
|Wisc-Milwaukee +18 v. Wisconsin
|8 h 7 m
15* CBB Wednesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Wisconsin-Milwaukee +18
The books are giving the Wisconsin Badgers way too much respect tonight, and we'll take advantage by backing the underdog Wisconsin-Milwaukee Panthers in this one. The Badgers are 10-0 this season which is why they are getting so much respect, but now they have created expectations for themselves that they cannot live up to.
It's not like Wisconsin has been blowing teams out during this unbeaten start on a regular basis. Indeed, eight of those 10 wins have come by 11 points or less. So, in all reality, the Badgers have simply been lucky to win every close game.
Their only two blowout wins came against lowly North Dakota (103-85) and Bowling Green (88-64). So, they have only won one game this season by more than 18 points. Coming off a huge win over in-state rival Marquette on Saturday, the Badgers are in a letdown spot here.
Wisconsin-Milwaukee is one of the most improved teams in the country in 2013. It has opened 9-2 this season with its only losses coming to DePaul (71-80) and Loyola-Illinois (72-76) by a combined 13 points. It has impressive wins over Davidson and Northern Illinois on the road, as well as home wins over Northern Iowa and Bradley.
Plays against favorites of 10 to 19.5 points (WISCONSIN) - after eight or more consecutive wins, undefeated on the season are 62-29 (68.1%) ATS over the last five seasons. This trend just goes to show that fading a team on a long winning streak that is undefeated is a very profitable move simply because that team is overvalued, which is clearly the case tonight.
The Panthers are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games. Wisconsin-Milwaukee is 5-1 ATS in its last six non-conference games. The Badgers are 0-4 ATS in their last four vs. Horizon League opponents. Roll with Wisconsin-Milwaukee Wednesday.
|Los Angeles Clippers -5.5 v. Boston Celtics
|7 h 13 m
20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Clippers -5.5
The Los Angeles Clippers were called out by head coach Doc Rivers for pouting after an 82-88 loss at Cleveland a few nights back. They responded well with an 11-point victory at Philadelphia in Monday. Now, I look for them to win by double-digits against the Boston Celtics tonight as well.
Rivers is one of the few head coaches that can get his team to respond by calling them out because they respect him so much. I don't expect it to just be a one game thing. In fact, I look for the Clippers to play some of their best basketball of the season for the remainder of this road trip. Rivers will be returning to the place he coached the past nine years, and it's clear that his players want to make this a special night for him.
"It's one of those things as players we want to rally around him and win this game for him," Blake Griffin said. "It's important when guys come back to their home city or come back to a place where they used to play or coached or whatever it is, it's a good feeling to come back and have a successful trip."
Boston will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 3rd game in 4 days after falling 96-104 in Brooklyn last night. I look for the Clippers, who are coming off a day off, to run the Celtics out of the building tonight due to being the fresher team.
The Clippers are 27-12 ATS in their last 39 games as a road favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. Boston is 69-102 ATS in its last 171 home games after playing two consecutive road games. The Celtics are 1-4 ATS in their last five games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes of the previous day. Los Angeles is 7-2 ATS in its last nine meetings with Boston. Bet the Clippers Wednesday.
|Boise St +11 v. Kentucky
|9 h 7 m
15* Boise State/Kentucky ESPN No-Brainer on Boise State +11
Boise State is one of the most underrated teams in college basketball. It returned all five starters from last season and has opened a perfect 8-0 this season as a result. This is one team not only to watch out for now, but in the NCAA Tournament as well.
The Broncos are excellent perimeter shooters, which is why they rank as the nation's No. 2 scoring offense at nearly 92 points per game. They shoot 51.9% overall, 40.2% from 3-points range and 75.3% from the free throw line. They have five players scoring in double figures, so they certainly share the ball well, too.
Kentucky is one of the most overrated teams in the country in the early going due to all the hype that its recruiting class received in the offseason. It has already lost two games to Michigan State and Baylor in its toughest two games of the season on neutral courts. The rest of the Wildcats' schedule has been a cake walk, though they struggled to beat Cleveland State (68-61) at home as a 24.5-point favorite.
Plays on road underdogs of 10 or more points (BOISE ST) - excellent free throw shooting team (>=73%) against an average free throw shooting team (65-69%), good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO's) against a poor pressure defensive team (<=14.5 TO's) are 24-4 (85.7%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Broncos are 6-0 ATS after allowing 55 points or less over the last three seasons. Roll with Boise State Tuesday.
|Milwaukee Bucks v. Chicago Bulls UNDER 182.5
|9 h 48 m
15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Bucks/Bulls UNDER 182.5
Both the Chicago Bulls and Miami Heat have been decimated by injuries this season. I believe those injuries have certainly hurt both teams a lot more on the offensive end than on defense. As a result, I look for a low-scoring affair between these teams in Chicago tonight.
Chicago is without Derrick Rose and Jimmy Butler. It is also likely to be without Luol Deng, who is listed as doubtful after missing Saturday's game against Detroit. The Bulls lost that game 75-92 for 167 combined points as they shot just 33.3% from the field. Rose, Deng and Butler are arguably their three best scorers, so you could see how they would struggle offensively without them.
Milwaukee is without several key players as well. Carlos Delfino, Larry Sanders, Caron Butler, Zaza Pachulia and Gary Neal are all expected to miss this game. The losses of Butler and Neal are big because both are scorers. The Bucks shot just 41.1% from the field in an 82-90 home loss to Brooklyn on Saturday.
Both teams love to play at a slow pace. Chicago ranks 26th in the league in pace at 94.6 possessions per game, while Milwaukee is tied with the Bulls at 26th at 94.6 possessions per game as well. Worse yet, the Bucks rank last in the league in offensive efficiency at 93.6 points per 100 possessions. The Bulls haven't been much better, ranking 26th in the league in offensive efficiency at 97.0 points per 100 possessions.
Chicago is 17-4 to the UNDER when playing against a terrible team (winning percentage of 25% or less) over the last three seasons. The Bulls are 10-1 to the UNDER in home games versus horrible foul drawing teams who attempt 21 or less free throws per game over the last two years. Chicago is 15-5 to the UNDER versus poor offensive teams who score 91 or less points per game over the last three years.
The UNDER is 35-17-2 in Bucks last 53 games when playing on two days' rest. The UNDER is 10-2 in Bulls last 12 games following a double-digit home loss. I look for both teams to continue to struggle offensively in this one given the injuries. Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday.
|South Dakota State v. Minnesota -15.5
|8 h 45 m
15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota -15.5
The Minnesota Golden Gophers should be a much bigger favorite tonight over the South Dakota State Jack Rabbits. I look for them to blow the opposition out of the building by 20-plus points tonight.
I like what I've seen from the Golden Gophers thus far under first-year head coach Richard Pitino. He has led them to an 8-2 start with their only losses coming on a neutral court to solid Syracuse and Arkansas teams. They have an impressive road win at Richmond (74-59) as a 1.5-point dog, and a great home win over Florida State (71-61) as a 3.5-point favorite, so they are certainly battle-tested.
South Dakota State is just 4-6 this season with its four wins coming against the likes of SW Minnesota State, Dakota State, Lehigh and Howard. As you can see, none were impressive. This team is simply overmatched tonight, and it will show in the final score.
The Golden Gophers are 6-0 SU & 3-0 ATS at home this season where they are outscoring opponents by an average of 17.0 points per game. The Jack Rabbits are 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS on the road this season, getting outscored by an average of 15.6 points per game. That includes road losses to the likes of Texas Tech (54-68), UC-Santa Barbara (64-83) and Stanford (60-92). None of those three teams are as strong as Minnesota.
SDSU is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games overall. The Jack Rabbits are 0-6 ATS in their last seven road games. SDSU is 0-7 ATS in its last seven road games against a team with a home winning percentage of greater than 60%. The Gophers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven home games. These four trends combine for a 25-1 system backing Minnesota. Plus, the Gophers beat SDSU by a final of 88-64 at home last season. Bet Minnesota Tuesday.
|Miami Heat v. Indiana Pacers UNDER 191.5
|8 h 48 m
20* Heat/Pacers Side & Total PARLAY on Indiana ML -144/UNDER 191.5
I am going to back the best team in the league tonight in the Indiana Pacers to take down the defending champion Miami Heat. Instead of laying the three points, I'll just take the Pacers at a generous money line price of -144.
Indiana wants serious revenge after losing in seven games in the Eastern Conference Finals to the Heat last year. It will be the much more motivated team because of it, while the Heat will have a hard time getting up for this contest.
The home team has won four straight and eight of the last 10 meetings in this series. Indiana is 28-12 in its last 40 home meetings with Miami. The Pacers are a perfect 9-0 at home this season, outscoring opponents by a whopping 14.9 points per game.
I am backing the UNDER because both teams are solid defensively, and the Eastern Conference Finals was very low scoring. Indiana is the best defensive team in the league, giving up 89.5 points per game overall and 81.8 at home. Miami is allowing 95.9 points per game overall and 93.4 on the road.
Each of the final four games in the playoffs between these teams last year saw 191 or less combined points. They combined for 175, 168, 169 and 191 points in their final four games, respectively. Familiarity breeds low-scoring games, and I fully expect that to be the case here. Plus, both teams will up their intensity level on defense for one of the biggest games of the season.
Indiana is 8-0 to the UNDER in home games versus good pressure defensive teams who force 16 or more turnovers per game over the past two seasons. The Pacers are 16-3 against the money line in all games this season. Indiana is 21-6 against the money line off a road loss over the past two seasons. Bet the Pacers on the Money Line and the UNDER in this game Tuesday.
|Miami Heat v. Indiana Pacers -144
|8 h 48 m
20* Heat/Pacers Side & Total PARLAY on Indiana ML -144/UNDER 191.5
I am going to back the best team in the league tonight in the Indiana Pacers to take down the defending champion Miami Heat. Instead of laying the three points, I'll just take the Pacers at a generous money line price of -144.
Indiana wants serious revenge after losing in seven games in the Eastern Conference Finals to the Heat last year. It will be the much more motivated team because of it, while the Heat will have a hard time getting up for this contest.
The home team has won four straight and eight of the last 10 meetings in this series. Indiana is 28-12 in its last 40 home meetings with Miami. The Pacers are a perfect 9-0 at home this season, outscoring opponents by a whopping 14.9 points per game.
I am backing the UNDER because both teams are solid defensively, and the Eastern Conference Finals was very low scoring. Indiana is the best defensive team in the league, giving up 89.5 points per game overall and 81.8 at home. Miami is allowing 95.9 points per game overall and 93.4 on the road.
Each of the final four games in the playoffs between these teams last year saw 191 or less combined points. They combined for 175, 168, 169 and 191 points in their final four games, respectively. Familiarity breeds low-scoring games, and I fully expect that to be the case here. Plus, both teams will up their intensity level on defense for one of the biggest games of the season.
Indiana is 8-0 to the UNDER in home games versus good pressure defensive teams who force 16 or more turnovers per game over the past two seasons. The Pacers are 16-3 against the money line in all games this season. Indiana is 21-6 against the money line off a road loss over the past two seasons. Bet the Pacers on the Money Line and the UNDER in this game Tuesday.
|Portland Trail Blazers v. Utah Jazz +7.5
|9 h 26 m
15* NBA Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on Utah Jazz +7.5
Due to their 17-4 start, the Portland Trail Blazers are now overvalued because the betting public is all over them. Conversely, the Utah Jazz are undervalued due to their 4-18 start, which has the betting public wanting nothing to do with them.
Utah should not be catching 7.5 points at home to Portland tonight. These teams just played on Friday with Portland rolling to a 130-98 home victory over Utah. Everything went right for the Blazers that night as they shot 17-of-23 (73.9%) from 3-point range. Obviously, that's not going to happen again, and Utah will be out for revenge tonight.
That was certainly a rare win for the Blazers in this series considering the Jazz have still won seven of the last nine meetings. Utah is 28-10 straight up in its last 38 home meetings with Portland. I look for the Blazers to suffer a hangover from their 2-point loss to Dallas last time out, and to not show up after having just crushed the Jazz by 32 points three days ago.
The Jazz are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games following a double-digit home loss. Utah is 15-7 ATS in its last 22 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Jazz are 5-1 ATS in their last six after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. It's revenge time for Utah tonight folks. Take the Jazz Monday.
|Dallas Cowboys v. Chicago Bears +1.5
|10 h 40 m
20* Cowboys/Bears ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Chicago +1.5
The Bears are essentially in a must-win situation Monday as they trail the Detroit Lions by two games for first place in the NFC North. That
|Carolina Panthers v. New Orleans Saints -3
|51 h 10 m
20* Panthers/Saints NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on New Orleans -3
Rarely will you ever get the opportunity to back the New Orleans Saints as a favorite by a field goal or less at home. I'm going to take full advantage and back the Saints Sunday as they host the Carolina Panthers with first place in the NFC South on the line.
The reason this line has been set so low is a combination of the Saints looking horrible at Seattle on Monday Night Football, and the Panthers coming in on an eight-game winning streak. These two factors have created some excellent line value for us, and we'll take advantage.
The Saints haven't lost consecutive games in a single regular season under coach Sean Payton since 2009. They are 8-1 ATS in home games following one or more consecutive losses over the past three seasons. Payton is 15-4 ATS off a road loss as the coach of New Orleans.
Simply put, New Orleans does not lose at home. It is a perfect 6-0 straight up and 5-1 against the spread at home this season, outscoring opponents 33.2 to 15.8, or by an average of 17.4 points per game. Their only non-cover came in a 23-20 win over the 49ers as a 3.5-point favorite in a game that was a much bigger blowout than the final score would indicate. The Saints outgianed the 49ers 387-196 for the game.
New Orleans is a ridiculous 17-4 ATS as a home favorite over the past three seasons, winning by an average of 16.8 points per game in this spot. The Saints are 12-2 ATS as a home favorite of 7 points or less over the last three seasons. New Orleans is 21-6 ATS in its last 27 home games overall. Bet the Saints Sunday.
|Indiana Pacers v. Oklahoma City Thunder -5
|16 h 24 m
15* Pacers/Thunder NBA Sunday No-Brainer on Oklahoma City -5
This is a horrible spot for the Indiana Pacers, and I'm going to fade them because of it. Sure, I'm very impressed with their NBA-best 18-2 record this year, but this is simply the time to go the other way.
Indiana will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 5th game in 8 days. It is coming off a huge 111-100 win at San Antonio last night. That sets the Pacers up for a big letdown spot here.
Making matters worse for the Pacers is that they have a game against the defending champion Miami Heat on deck. That makes this a sandwich game for them off a big win and with an even bigger opponent up next. There's no question Indiana will be looking ahead to that huge showdown as they want revenge on the Heat, who knocked them out in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals last year.
Conversely, Indiana will have Oklahoma City's full attention. It is coming on on a days' rest off a 109-95 win at New Orleans on Friday. The Thunder are quietly playing some of the best basketball in the NBA, winning nine of their last 10 games overall with their only loss coming at Portland.
The Thunder are a perfect 9-0 at home this season where they are outscoring opponents by 8.6 points per game. The Thunder won both meetings with the Pacers last season, winning 104-93 at home and 97-75 on the road. It's a tough matchup for the Pacers because Paul George is overmatched by Kevin Durant. George is rarely ever overmatched.
The Thunder are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. Oklahoma City is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 Sunday games. Indiana is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 Sunday games. Bet the Thunder Sunday.
|St. Louis Rams v. Arizona Cardinals -6
|47 h 4 m
15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Arizona Cardinals -6
The Arizona Cardinals have been one of the best teams in the league over the past five weeks. They have gone 4-1 straight up and 4-1 against the spread during this stretch to put themselves right in the thick of the NFC Wild Card race. They have been dominant in their last five contests, outgaining all five of their opponents by 43 or more yards. Their only loss during this stretch came at Philadelphia by a final of 21-24 last week.
While the Cardinals have a realistic shot to make the playoffs, the Rams really do not. They have lost four of their last six games coming in to drop to 5-7 on the season. They needed to make their stand last week, but fell flat on their faces in a 13-23 loss at San Francisco. The reason that loss was so huge is because the 49ers are the team they are trailing for the 6th and final seed in the NFC. St. Louis trails San Francisco by three games, but that
|Seattle Seahawks v. San Francisco 49ers -2.5
|47 h 3 m
20* Seahawks/49ers NFC Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on San Francisco -2.5
This is a statement game for the San Francisco 49ers. They were embarrassed by a final of 29-3 at Seattle in their first meeting this season for their second straight blowout at the hands of the Seahawks on the road. It's revenge time for the 49ers.
San Francisco simply needs this win more. It is barely hanging on to the 6th seed in the NFC and needs to come close to winning out to make the playoffs. It also needs the win for a shot of confidence, proving to itself that it can beat a good team.
Seattle is in a huge letdown spot here off its biggest win of the season. It blew out the New Orleans Saints on ESPN's Monday Night Football by a final of 34-7 to all but wrap up home-field advantage in the playoffs. Having already beaten the Saints (9-3) and Panthers (9-3), the Seahawks (11-1) now hold a three-game lead over both teams since they own the tiebreaker.
Seattle can afford to lose two more games this season and still get the No. 1 seed. Plus, coming off a Monday Night game, the Seahawks will now have one fewer day to prepare for San Francisco. They are outscoring opponents by 10.0 points per game less on the road than they are at home this year.
"Any time you play a team and you lose, the next time you face them is definitely a statement game," San Francisco tight end Vernon Davis said. "Not just for us, but for anybody."
San Francisco is a perfect 9-0 ATS when playing against a top-level team with a winning percentage of 75% or better over the past three seasons. Seattle is 5-18 ATS off a home blowout win by 21 or more points since 1992. The 49ers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. San Francisco is 34-16-1 ATS in its last 51 games overall, and 19-8-1 ATS in its last 28 home games. Take the 49ers Sunday.
|Washington +14.5 v. San Diego St
|12 h 11 m
15* CBB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Washington +14.5
This is a classic case of one team being overvalued due solid streak, while another team is undervalued because of a poor streak coming in. Washington has failed to cover each of its last four games, while San Diego State has covered three of its last four coming in. This has created some excellent line value on the underdog Huskies.
Sure, Washington is off to a slow start this season at just 4-3, but two of its losses have come against quality opponents in Indiana and Boston College on a neutral court. This team is not as bad as its record would indicate, and a slow start has it way undervalued.
I really like what I've seen from the Huskies on the offensive end. They are putting up 84.1 points per game against opponents that are only allowing an average of 73 points per game on the season. They have five players averaging at least 10.3 points per game, led by returning starter Chris Wilcox (22.6 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 42.3% 3-pointers).
San Diego State is a good team but one that is getting way too much respect as a double-digit favorite here. It is getting that respect due to a 6-1 start with its only loss coming to Arizona. However, each of its last three wins have come by 8 points or less, including a 65-64 win at San Diego last time out as a 6.5-point favorite.
The Huskies will be the more rested and prepared team coming into this one. They have not played since November 30 in a home win over Long Beach State. The Aztecs last played on December 5 in their 1-point win at San Diego. So, that will be a huge advantage for Washington as it will be more prepared for this game coming in.
Plays on underdogs of 10 or more points (WASHINGTON) - after failing to cover 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread against opponent after having covered 3 of their last 4 against the spread are 130-68 (65.7%) ATS over the last five seasons. This trend just goes to show how profitable it can be to back a team that has been struggling ATS of late against a team that has been dominating ATS of late. Books over-adjust, creating line value on the struggling team. Roll with Washington Sunday.
|Indianapolis Colts v. Cincinnati Bengals -6.5
|44 h 39 m
15* AFC Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Cincinnati Bengals -6.5
The Cincinnati Bengals have been one of the best teams in the AFC in 2013. Their numbers really show their dominance as well. They are putting up 24.3 points and 363.7 yards per game to rank 12th in the league in total offense. They are giving up just 18.0 points and 314.8 yards per game to rank 6th in the league in total defense. As you can see, they are outgaining opponents by roughly 49 yards per game, which is the sign of a dominant team.
While Cincinnati has been every bit as good as its record, Indianapolis has been a complete fraud. The Colts have managed to go 8-4 this season despite getting outgained by roughly 34 yards per game on the season. They really miss Reggie Wayne, and they simply have been fortunate to win their share of close games to this point. Indianapolis ranks 20th in the league in total offense at 333.5 yards per game, and 21st in total defense at 367.2 yards per contest.
Home-field advantage has been absolutely huge in this series between Cincinnati and Indianapolis. In fact, the home team has won four straight meetings all by six points or more. Dating back further, the home team has won seven of the past eight meetings with all seven of those wins coming by six points or more as well. The Bengals are a perfect 5-0 straight up and 5-0 against the spread at home this season, outscoring opponents by a whopping 16.4 points per game.
Andrew Luck is being asked to do too much. Any time you take a dome team like the Colts and move them outside, you have to be concerned. Luck has thrown 18 touchdowns against 14 interceptions outdoors in his career. Away from Indianapolis, Luck has thrown 17 touchdowns and 16 interceptions. He has only played in one game where it was less than 40 degrees out, and he completed less than 50 percent of his passes. Luck is much better in warmer weather dating back to his time at Stanford.
Darrius Heyward-Bey hasn't been able to fill in for Wayne as he continues to have problems with the drops. Rookie left guard Hugh Thornton and tackle Jeffrey Linkenbach II are both questionable to play Sunday. The Colts were already without guard Donald Thomas for the season, so they are clearly banged up along the offensive line.
The strength of the Bengals' defense is their front seven, and I look for them to dominate the point of attack in this one. The Bengals only allowed San Diego into the red zone once in 11 drives last week, forcing a fumble. They won 17-10 in a game that was an even bigger blowout than the final score would indicate.
|Buffalo Bills +3 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
|44 h 38 m
15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Buffalo Bills +3
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are getting too much respect from the books as a field goal favorite over the Buffalo Bills Sunday. The Bucs have won three of their last four games overall, but had a couple of those games handed to them. Their true colors showed in a 6-27 loss at Carolina last week.
The Bucs' win over the Dolphins was legit, but their wins over the Falcons and Lions were not. Tampa was +8 in turnover differential against the Lions and Falcons combined. They were outgained by Detroit 229-391 and should have never won that game. They weren't as fortunate against the Panthers, getting outgained 204-426 in their 21-point loss last week.
Now, the momentum that Tampa Bay had built up has come to a complete halt, yet they are still getting respect from the books. Buffalo is one of the best teams in the league that has a losing record. They are much better than their 4-8 mark would indicate, but seven of their eight losses have come after blown leads in the game.
Tampa Bay is only putting up 295.2 yards per game to rank 31st in the league in total offense. It is getting outgained by an average of 57.5 yards per game, so it is every bit as bad as its 3-9 record would indicate. Buffalo is only getting outgained by 16.9 yards per game, which is very impressive when you consider that it has played a quarterback carousel all season.
However, E.J. Manuel is finally healthy and ready to lead this team to a big finish. Manuel has thrown for 1,595 yards with nine touchdowns and four interceptions, while also rushing for 120 yards and a score. He has clearly been their best quarterback. C.J. Spiller (656 yards, 2 TD) and Fred Jackson (633 yards, 7 TD) form a great 1-2 punch in the backfield, and they lead the league's fourth-best rushing attack at 139.2 yards per game.
The Bucs have allowed 104 or more rushing yards in five of their last six games overall. That includes 198 yards to Seattle, 152 to Atlanta and 163 to Carolina. Clearly, the Bills have an excellent chance to move the ball on the ground in this one to take some of the pressure off of Manuel. Another key fact is that the Bills are still alive for the playoffs, while the Bucs are not. So, you can expect Buffalo to fight until the finish line.
Plays against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (TAMPA BAY) - after scoring 14 points or less last game are 82-46 (64.1%) ATS over the last five seasons. Tampa Bay is 0-8 ATS when playing against a bad team (winning percentage of 25% to 40%) over the last three seasons. It is losing by an average of 17.1 points per game in this spot.
The Bucs are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 December games. Buffalo is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 road games after failing to cover the spread in four of its last five games. The Bills are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games following a loss. Tampa Bay is 12-28-1 ATS in its last 41 home games. Roll with the Bills Sunday.
|Dallas Mavericks +5 v. Portland Trail Blazers
|21 h 38 m
20* Mavs/Blazers NBA Saturday Night BAILOUT on Dallas +5
The Portland Trail Blazers are way overvalued right now due to their 17-3 start. They had everything go right for them last night against the lowly Utah Jazz, but now they face a much more formidable opponent in the Dallas Mavericks tonight.
Portland is in a very tough spot here. It will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 5th game in 7 days. Meanwhile, Dallas comes in on two days' rest having last played on Wednesday in a 100-97 win at New Orleans. This spot certainly favors the Mavericks rest-wise.
Dallas has owned Portland of late, winning seven of the last nine meetings in this series. In fact, Dallas has not lost to Portland by more than five points in any of their last 13 meetings.
They have nine wins and four losses against the Blazers over that span with their losses coming by 2, 2, 2 and 5 points. That makes for a perfect 12-0-1 system backing Dallas pertaining to tonight's spread of 5. This is just an excellent spot for Dallas, and a terrible one for overvalued Portland. Bet the Mavericks Saturday.
|UL-Lafayette v. South Alabama -3
|49 h 3 m
20* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on South Alabama -3
The South Alabama Jaguars are one of the most underrated teams in the country. They should be a much heavier favorite Saturday at home against the Louisiana-Lafayette Rajin' Cajuns. However, this team continues to get disrespected by the books, while the Rajin' Cajuns continue to get too much respect.
The situation really favors South Alabama in this one. It will be playing to become bowl eligible and to pick up its all-important 6th win of the season. Meanwhile, Louisiana-Lafayette has already wrapped up the Sun Belt Title due to its head-to-head victory over Arkansas State. Plus, it has already been decided that Lafayette will play in the New Orleans Bowl against Tulane, so its fate is already decided. The Rajin' Cajuns will have a hard time being motivated for this game given the situation.
Lafayette really hasn't been playing well for weeks. It has gone 0-4 ATS in its last four games overall heading in. It beat New Mexico State (49-35) as a 32.5-point favorite, beat Troy (41-36) as a 14-point favorite, beat Georgia State (35-21) as a 20.5-point favorite, and lost at home to Louisiana-Monroe (28-31) as an 18-point favorite.
South Alabama has saved its best football of the season for laste. It is coming off back-to-back blowout victories with a 36-14 home win over Louisiana-Monroe as a 3.5-point favorite, and a 38-17 win at Georgia State as an 8-point favorite. The Jaguars outgained the Warhawks 424-274 in their home win, and outgained the Panthers 522-345 in their road victory. Those two wins have put them in position to become bowl eligible Saturday with another victory.
Even if Lafayette was fully healthy, I believe this line would be off. However, the Rajin' Cajuns are expected to be without starting quarterback Terrance Broadway Saturday, who is listed as doubtful with a wrist injury. That would be a huge loss considering Broadway is completing 62.3 percent of his passes for 2,276 yards with 19 touchdowns and 10 interceptions, while also rushing for 421 yards and eight scores. Without his dual-threat ability, the Rajin' Cajuns will be much easier to defend.
The Rajin' Cajuns are 0-5 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a losing record. The Jaguars are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a S.U. win. South Alabama is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games after allowing more than 280 passing yards in its previous game. The Jaguars are 4-0 ATS in their last four games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. These four trends combine for a 20-2 system backing the Jaguars. Bet South Alabama Saturday.
|Stanford v. Arizona State -3
|49 h 51 m
15* Stanford/ASU Pac-12 Championship ANNIHILATOR on Arizona State -3
The Arizona State Sun Devils have put together a tremendous run to make the Pac-12 Title Game and to host it as well. They have won seven straight games coming in, which includes road wins at Utah and UCLA, and blowout home wins over the likes of Washington (53-24), Oregon State (30-17) and Arizona (58-21). When you compare common opponents, it
|NC-Greensboro +27.5 v. North Carolina
|18 h 33 m
15* CBB Saturday Letdown Spot on UNC-Greensboro +27.5
The North Carolina Tar Heels won't even show up Saturday. They are in a huge letdown spot after beating No. 1 Michigan State on Wednesday by a final of 79-65 on the road. Now, they have Kentucky on deck, so they will be looking ahead to that game as well. I fully expect the Tar Heels to just go through the motions Saturday, which will allow Greensboro to stay within this massive spread.
Remember, North Carolina lost to both Belmont (80-83) and UAB (59-63) already this season, so this team is extremely vulnerable. All five of its wins have come by 23 points or less, which includes a 62-54 home win over Holy Cross as a 21-point favorite.
North Carolina is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games following a S.U. win. The Tar Heels are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following an ATS win. UNC will not show up at all in this one. Take UNC-Greensboro Saturday.
|UAB v. Northeastern -1
|18 h 32 m
15* CBB Saturday Line Mistake on Northeastern -1
Few teams in the country have played a schedule as tough as the one that Northeastern has gone up against. It has opened 2-6, which includes an upset win over Georgetown (63-56) as a 13.5-point underdog.
The six losses have all come by 13 points or less, including five by 9 points or fewer. Five of the six have come on the road, including setbacks against very good Charlotte (77-86), Florida State (60-62) and VCU (66-79) teams. The home loss came against Harvard (64-72), which is expected to make the NCAA Tournament.
The Huskies have not been a favorite in any game this season. This is the first time they will be favored, which comes as no surprise considering this is just their second home game of the season. I really like what I've seen from the three star players on this team in Scott Eatherton (16.4 ppg, 10.6 rpg), David Walker (12.2 ppg, 3.0 apg) and Reggie Spencer (11.0 ppg, 6.9 rpg).
UAB is in a massive letdown spot here. It is coming off a huge 63-59 home win over North Carolina as a 7.5-point underdog. That was arguably the biggest win in school history, and one that it's going to be hard for the players to get over. I look for the Blazers to come out flat because of it, and for the Huskies to come out hungry following four consecutive losses against very good competition.
The Blazers are 2-9 ATS in road games versus very good shooting teams who make 45% of their shots or better over the past two seasons. They are losing 67.6 to 76.5 in this spot, or by an average of 8.9 points per game. UAB is 6-15 ATS in its last 21 road games. The Huskies are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games following an ATS loss. Roll with Northeastern Saturday.
|Western Michigan v. Northwestern -5.5
|16 h 33 m
15* CBB Saturday Bounce-Back BLOWOUT on Northwestern -5.5
The Northwestern Wildcats should be a much bigger favorite here against Western Michigan. I'll take advantage and back them as a short home favorite in a game I believe they'll win by double-digits.
Northwestern is undervalued right now due to a 4-5 start against an absolutely brutal schedule. All five losses have come against quality teams in Stanford, Illinois State, Missouri, UCLA and NC State. Four of those losses came on the road in games they were an underdog in, so they were supposed to lose.
Western Michigan is overvalued due to its 5-2 start which has come against soft competition. Its five wins have come against Cornell, Oakland, Alabama A&M, Tennessee State and New Mexico. Only one of those wins came in the role of the underdog. WMU also lost to Hawaii (68-78) on the road and North Dakota State (74-83) at home.
Off three straight losses, Northwestern will be happy to return home where it is 3-1 on the season and outscoring opponents by 7.5 points per game. Western Michigan is 1-9 ATS in road games after having won 5 or 6 of its last 7 games over the past three seasons. It is losing in this spot by 11.2 points per game. Roll with Northwestern Saturday.
|Western Kentucky v. Southern Illinois -3.5
|15 h 32 m
15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Southern Illinois -3.5
The Southern Illinois Salukis deserve to be getting more respect than they are Saturday. I'll take advantage and back them as a slim 3.5-point home favorite against Western Kentucky in what I fully expect to be a double-digit blowout by game's end.
Southern Illinois is undervalued right now due to its 2-6 start. A closer look shows that it has been up against a brutal schedule, and it has been unfortunate in close games. Three of its six losses came by 4 points or less, and all six have been by 13 or fewer.
Also, five of the six losses have come in the role of the underdog, so the Salukis were supposed to lose. Two of those were against Missouri (59-72) as a 16.5-point underdog, and Saint Louis (67-76) as a 12.5-point dog. They hung with both of those teams to really show their potential.
Now, the Salukis are in the role of the favorite for the first time all season. They deserve to be against a Western Kentucky team that is overrated at 4-3 this season. Its four wins have all come at home against E. Tennessee State (57-50), UNC-Wilmington (73-58), Samford (67-64) and E. Illinois (68-53).
The Hilltoppers are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS on the road this season with double-digit losses to Wichita State (49-66) as a 15.5-point dog, Marshall (64-74) as a 3.5-point dog, and Bowling Green (62-74) as a 2-point favorite. This team is clearly overrated and should be a bigger dog today.
Adding fuel to the fire for the Salukis is the fact that they have lost three straight to the Hilltoppers by 7 points or less, including last year's 57-58 road loss. They'll want revenge, and I fully expect them to get it today.
This will only be the 3rd home game of the year for the Salukis. Southern Illinois is 6-1 ATS in its last seven home games. Western Kentucky is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 road games vs. a team with a .500 or better home record. Southern Illinois is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games vs. a team with a winning record. WKU is 0-6 ATS in road games after playing a road game over the past two seasons. Take Southern Illinois Saturday.
|Fordham +11.5 v. St John's
|12 h 2 m
20* CBB GAME OF THE WEEK on Fordham +11.5
The St. John's Red Storm are coming off a big 69-58 win over Georgia Tech on a neutral court. With a date with one of the top teams in the country in Syracuse on deck, I have no doubt that the Red Storm will be overlooking Fordham in this one.
This is a very good Fordham team that is one of the most underrated in the country. It has opened 4-2 with one of its two losses coming at Syracuse by a final of 74-89 as a 19.5-point underdog. If the Rams can stay within 15 of Syracuse on the road, they can certainly stay within 11 of the Red Storm.
St. John's really doesn't have a good win yet. It has some ugly wins, however. It only beat Bucknell 67-63 as a 7-point home favorite, and Monmouth 64-54 as a 20-point favorite. It also has losses to Wisconsin (75-86) on a neutral court as a 5-point dog, and to Penn State (82-89) on a neutral court as a 3-point favorite.
Fordham returned five of its top six scorers from last season. Leading the way this season has been the three-headed monster of Jon Severe (23.2 ppg, 42.1% 3-pointers), Branden Frazier (18.8 ppg, 6.5 rpg, 5.2 apg) and Mandell Thomas (15.0 ppg, 7.3 rpg, 3.7 apg). With these three, the Rams are capable of competing with just about anyone in the country.
Fordham is 4-0 ATS in its last four meetings with St. John's. Fordham covered as a 13.5-point road underdog in a 58-47 loss at St. John's last year, covered as an 11.5-point road dog in a 56-50 loss at St. John's in 2011, and won outright as a 14-point home underdog by a final of 84-81 in 2010. Clearly, the Rams are not afraid of the Red Storm.
St. John's is 4-15 ATS as a home favorite of 9.5 to 12 points since 1997. St. John's is 1-12 ATS after allowing 60 points or less in its previous game over the past three seasons. Fordham is 21-8 ATS in its last 29 games overall. The Rams are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 non-conference games. The Red Storm are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games following a S.U. win. Bet Fordham Saturday.
|Marshall v. Rice +6.5
|41 h 7 m
25* Conference Championship GAME OF THE YEAR on Rice +6.5
The public perception of Marshall right now is at an all-time high, while the public perception of Rice is certainly wavering. That
|Oklahoma +10 v. Oklahoma State
|41 h 6 m
15* Oklahoma/Oky State Big 12 No-Brainer on Oklahoma +10
This is a rivalry game, and Oklahoma would love nothing more than to spoil Oklahoma State
|Utah Jazz +11.5 v. Portland Trail Blazers
|10 h 20 m
20* Jazz/Blazers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Utah +11.5
The Utah Jazz are showing tremendous value as a double-digit underdog to the Portland Trail Blazers tonight. Portland is overvalued due to its 16-3 start this season and has created expectations for itself that it cannot live up to.
Utah, meanwhile, is undervalued due to its 4-16 start. This team has been playing much better of late due to the healthy return of point guard Trey Burke. In fact, the Jazz have won three of their last five games overall and led Indiana most of the way before having a poor 4th quarter and losing by 9 on Wednesday.
The reigning NCAA player of the year missed the team's first 12 games because of a fractured index finger. He's started the last six and has averaged 33.5 minutes in the past five, putting up 16.2 points and 5.0 assists per game as Utah has gone 3-2. Burke has just two turnovers over the last four games while the Jazz have averaged 13.0, compared to 17.8 through their first 16 games.
Portland is in a huge letdown spot here. It is coming off back-to-back home wins over two of the best teams in the NBA in Indiana (106-102) and Oklahoma City (111-104). It will have a hard time getting up to play one of the worst teams in the league in the Jazz tonight. I'm not saying the Blazers' start is a complete fluke, but they certainly are overvalued because of it.
The Jazz have won seven of their last eight meetings with the Blazers overall. Plays on road underdogs of 10 or more points (UTAH) - after 1 or more consecutive losses, on Friday nights are 73-32 (69.5%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Jazz are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following an ATS loss. Utah is 4-1 ATS in its last five road games. The Jazz are 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings in Portland. Bet Utah Friday.
|California -1.5 v. UC-Santa Barbara
|10 h 15 m
15* CBB Friday PLAY OF THE DAY on California -1.5
The Cal Golden Bears should be a much bigger favorite tonight over Cal Santa Barbara. This is a Cal team that returned four starters from last season and is way undervalued right now due to suffering two early losses.
However, both of those losses came against two of the better teams in the country in Syracuse and Dayton. Cal has taken care of business against everyone else, and I look for it to come up with an easy victory over UCSB tonight as well.
Santa Barbara is getting too much respect due to beating UNLV on the road earlier this season. That UNLV team is way down this year, and they are getting too much credit for it. They have lost to Utah State, Colorado and UCLA since, and they'll be overmatched by the Bears in this one as well.
Cal is 4-0 in its last four meetings with UCSB, winning all four by seven or more points. UCSB is 3-15 ATS versus teams who are called for 17 or less fouls per game over the past three seasons. Cal is 18-7 ATS as a road favorite of three points or less since 1997. Cal is 44-18 ATS in road games after having lost two of its last three games since 1997. The Bears are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 vs. Big West opponents. Take Cal Friday.
|Toronto Raptors v. Phoenix Suns -3.5
|9 h 20 m
15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Phoenix Suns -3.5
The Phoenix Suns continue to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers. They should be a bigger home favorite tonight over the Toronto Raptors, but I'll take advantage since they just continue to fly under the radar.
Phoenix has opened 10-9 this season with impressive wins along the way. More impressive, though is the fact that seven of their nine losses have come by 8 points or fewer. So, this team has essentially been in just about every game this season.
Toronto is just 6-11 this season and has really struggled of late. It has lost four straight heading into this one, giving up 102 or more points in three of the four losses. This is a team that relies too heavily on Rudy Gay and DeMar DeRozan to carry the scoring load, while Phoenix is a team that goes about 10 deep and gets its scoring from different places night in and night out.
The Suns have won 14 of their last 17 meetings with the Raptors. Phoenix is 12-3 ATS versus poor shooting teams that make 43% or less of their shots over the past two seasons. The Suns are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games playing on 1 days rest. Phoenix is 13-5-1 ATS in its last 19 games overall. Roll with the Suns Friday.
|Bowling Green +5 v. Northern Illinois
|44 h 46 m
15* Bowling Green/Northern Illinois MAC Championship No-Brainer on Bowling Green +5
The Bowling Green Falcons could be the toughest team that Northern Illinois has faced all season. This is a team that could easily be 11-1 right now if not for losses to Toledo and Mississippi State by a combined four points. This team is the real deal and playing its best football of the season coming in. It has gone 4-0 straight up and 4-0 against the spread in its last four games overall, which is what it took to get a trip to the MAC Championship Game in Detroit.
Not only have the Falcons been winning, they
|Denver Nuggets v. Boston Celtics +4.5
|8 h 50 m
15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Boston Celtics +4.5
The Boston Celtics have quietly played some very good basketball in the early going under head coach Brad Stevens. They currently sit atop the Atlantic Division with an 8-12 record in the watered-down Eastern Conference.
The Celtics have won four of their last six games overall, which includes road wins over Atlanta (94-87) and Charlotte (96-86), as well as home wins over Cleveland (103-86) and Milwaukee (108-100). This team remains undervalued despite a respectable start to the season under Stevens.
Denver is way overvalued right now due to winning seven of its last eight games overall. It had a seven-game winning streak snapped as a 3.5-point favorite at Cleveland on Wednesday, losing by a final of 88-98. This road trip has started to take its toll on the Nuggets as this will be their sixth road game in their past seven contests.
The Nuggets are a notorious terrible road team over the year, and a great home team. That's why I'll look to fade them almost any time they are a road favorite. Plus, the Celtics are 32-7 all-time at home against the Nuggets, winning the last three while averaging 112.0 points per game.
Boston is 14-3 ATS in home games versus poor defensive teams who allow 99 or more points per game over the past two seasons. The Nuggets are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. The home team is 16-5 ATS in the last 21 meetings in this series. Boston is 6-1 ATS in its last seven home meetings with Denver. Take the Celtics Friday.
|Ole Miss v. Kansas State -1.5
|9 h 56 m
15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Kansas State -1.5
The Kansas State Wildcats are looking for a statement win tonight against Ole Miss to get their season back on track. They have opened 4-3 this year, but two of those losses came against very good Charlotte and Georgetown teams on a neutral court. They have been much better since, posting back-to-back blowout victories over Long Beach State (52-38) and Central Arkansas (87-54).
Ole Miss is way overrated in the early going due to its 6-0 start against soft competition. It has only played on true road game this year, and struggled to beat Coastal Carolina by a final of 72-70 on November 16. The Rebels will be playing in a much tougher atmosphere in Manhattan, KS tonight.
Kansas State went 15-1 at home last season and is now 18-2 at home over the past two seasons combined. Wildcats guard Will Spradling is hoping to get a lift from its fan base in Thursday's game. "It'll be a big game for us, a game to get the preseason turned around," the senior guard said. "We had a rocky start, but we should have a good home crowd tomorrow and a good home court advantage."
The Wildcats are 14-1 ATS in home games after two straight wins by 10 points or more since 1997. They are winning in this spot 80.7 to 60.1, or by an average of 20.6 points per game. Roll with Kansas State Thursday.
|Houston Texans -3 v. Jacksonville Jaguars
|21 h 10 m
15* Texans/Jaguars AFC South ANNIHILATOR on Houston -3
The Texans might be the best 2-10 team in the history of the NFL. If you looked at all of their statistics and not their record, you would think that this is a playoff team. The Texans rank 3rd in the league in total defense at 303.9 yards per game allowed, and 10th in total offense at 365.2 yards per game gained. The problem is that the Texans have lost seven games by a touchdown or less, so they simply haven
|Los Angeles Clippers +105 v. Memphis Grizzlies
|8 h 2 m
15* NBA Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Los Angeles Clippers ML +105
At some point, you have to stand up for yourself. The Los Angeles Clippers were knocked out of the playoffs by the Memphis Grizzlies last season. They had their chance for revenge on November 18, but lost at home to the Grizzlies by a final of 102-106. I don't expect them to squander a second opportunity for revenge tonight.
Memphis is in a world of hurt right now. It is without its best player in Marc Gasol (knee), while Zach Randolph is questionable to play tonight after missing the past couple games with a toe injury. Gasol and Randolph combined for 49 points and 24 rebounds in the first meeting of the season between these teams.
The Clippers have won three of their last four regular-season trips to Memphis. They certainly do not want to lose a third straight games overall after falling to the Pacers and Hawks to begin December. I look for them to rally around Chris Paul and to take advantage of the absence of Gasol, and possibly Randolph, tonight.
The Clippers are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games playing on 0 days rest. The Grizzlies are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 home games. Los Angeles is 4-1 ATS in its last five road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Memphis is 1-4 ATS in its last five home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Bet the Clippers Thursday.
|Louisville v. Cincinnati +3.5
|20 h 15 m
20* Louisville/Cincinnati ESPN Thursday No-Brainer on Cincinnati +3.5
The Bearcats have saved their best football of the season for last. They have won six straight games coming in with four of those victories coming by double-digits. They now still have a shot to win the American Athletic with some help from SMU this weekend, which would put them in a BCS Bowl. No matter what Louisville does, it won
|Indiana Pacers v. Utah Jazz +9
|9 h 10 m
20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Utah Jazz +9
The Utah Jazz hit rock bottom when they started 1-14. Oddsmakers had to adjust their power ratings for the Jazz to an all-time low because of that start. As a result, this team has been showing a ton of value of late and will be going forward.
The Jazz have won three of their last four games overall while going 3-1 ATS in the process. That includes home wins over both Chicago (89-83) and Houston (109-103), as well as a road win at Phoenix (112-104). A big reason for this resurgence has been the debut of rookie point guard Trey Burke, who has been a playmaker in the early going.
Indiana's stock could not be bigger due to its 16-1 start to the season. As a result, oddsmakers have had to adjust their power ratings for the Pacers to an all-time high. This will create value in fading Indiana going forward, and that was evident in its 102-106 loss at Portland last time out when it was actually a favorite in that game.
With games against San Antonio and Oklahoma City on deck, this could be a huge letdown spot for Indiana. I look for the Pacers to be overlooking the Jazz enough to let Utah cover, and possibly win this game outright.
The Jazz are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Utah is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games overall. Utah has won six straight home meetings with Indiana dating back to 2007. It hasn't lost at home against the Pacers since 2005. Bet the Jazz Wednesday.
|Boston College +4 v. Purdue
|8 h 24 m
15* ACC/Big Ten Challenge GAME OF THE NIGHT on Boston College +4
The Boston College Eagles are way undervalued after starting the season 0-3. They have rebounded nicely to 3-4 with their only loss since coming by a final of 70-72 to unbeaten Connecticut as a 9-point underdog. In fact, three of Boston College's four losses this season have come by 4 points or less.
The Eagles returned 96 percent of their scoring from last season as they are one of the most experienced teams in the entire country. Olivier Hanlan (21.7 ppg) and Ryan Anderson (19.0 ppg, 7.1 rpg) are two of the best players in the entire country and fully capable of carrying the team.
Purdue is nowhere near as good as its 6-2 record would indicate. Its six wins have all come at home against the likes of Northern Kentucky (77-76), Central Connecticut State, Rider (81-77), Eastern Illinois and Siena (twice). Four of its six wins have come by 8 points or fewer. In its only two tough games, Purdue fell to Oklahoma State (87-97) and Washington State (54-69) on a neutral court.
Free throw shooting is very important this year. Boston College is averaging 22 makes on 26 attempts per game for an incredible 84.3% from the charity stripe. Purdue is only averaging 18 makes on 27 attempts per game for a 65.9% conversion rate.
Boston College is 39-23 ATS in its last 62 road games as an underdog of 6 points or less. The Boilermakers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Purdue is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 non-conference games. Roll with Boston College Wednesday.
|Phoenix Suns +10.5 v. Houston Rockets
|8 h 21 m
15* NBA Wednesday Night Line Mistake on Phoenix Suns +10.5
The Phoenix Suns are showing tremendous value as a double-digit underdog to the Houston Rockets tonight. They blew a big first-half lead against the Grizzlies to lose last night, but since they had two days' rest coming into that game and are very deep, they will be plenty fresh tonight.
The Suns are still one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season. They are off to a 9-9 start with seven of their losses coming by 8 points or fewer. They have proven they can play with anybody as evidenced by their narrow road losses to Oklahoma City (96-103), San Antonio (96-99) and Portland (89-90).
Houston isn't the healthiest of teams right now. Starting point guard Jeremy Lin, who was off to a tremendous start this season, is sidelined by a knee injury. Starting forward Chandler Parsons is questionable to play tonight as he nurses a back injury.
Phoenix is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games following an ATS loss. The Suns are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games. Phoenix is 10-3-1 ATS in its last 14 vs. Western Conference opponents. The Suns are 22-7 ATS in their last 29 meetings with the Rockets, including 19-5 ATS in their last 24 meetings in Houston. Take Phoenix Wednesday.
|Pennsylvania +18.5 v. Villanova
|8 h 4 m
15* CBB Rivalry GAME OF THE NIGHT on Pennsylvania +18.5
The Villanova Wildcats are in a huge letdown spot tonight after winning the Battle 4 Atlantis title. The Wildcats posted back-to-back dramatic wins over quality teams in Kansas and Iowa to claim the title. They now have a Top 25 ranking, and are getting patted on the back.
Sure, Villanova has won 10 straight over Big Five rival Pennsylvania, but this has been a closely-contested series in recent years. Each of the last three meetings between these teams have been decided by 13 points or less.
Pennsylvania is just 2-4 this season, but it has played a tough schedule in the early going, and it returns all five starters from last season. Three of its four losses have come by 12 points or fewer. The only blowout came at Iowa as a 25-point underdog in a 31-point loss.
Plays against favorites of 10 to 19.5 points (VILLANOVA) - after having covered 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread, undefeated on the season are 30-12 (71.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.
Penn is 6-0 ATS in road games versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3 points shots/game over the past three seasons. The Quakers are 10-1 ATS in road games after a game where they made 88% of their free throws or better since 1997. Penn is 26-9 ATS in its last 35 road games after having lost 4 or 5 of its last 6 games coming in. Take Pennsylvania Wednesday.
|Detroit +10 v. Toledo
|7 h 6 m
20* College Basketball GAME OF THE WEEK on Detroit +10
This is a classic early-season revenge spot for Detroit. After losing at home to Toledo by a final of 78-80 on November 23 as a 4-point underdog, I fully expect Detroit to give the Rockets a run for their money on the road tonight in the rematch.
Detroit has won three of its past five games overall with its two losses coming by a combined 4 points. That includes road wins at James Madison (71-67) as a 3.5-point underdog, and at South Florida (65-60) as a 9-point dog.
With an emphasis on more foul calls this season, Detroit makes for a solid team to back. That's because it is averaging 21 makes on 27 attempts per game, shooting a sensational 79.4% from the charity stripe this season.
The underdog is a perfect 5-0 against the spread in the last five meetings between these teams. The road team is 4-1 against the number in the last five meetings as well. The Titans are 4-1 against the spread in their last five games overall. Bet Detroit Wednesday.
|North Texas +19.5 v. Brigham Young
|9 h 4 m
15* CBB Tuesday GAME OF THE NIGHT on North Texas +19.5
The North Texas Mean Green get the call Tuesday night as a massive road underdog to the BYU Cougars. This line has been inflated, and we'll take advantage and back the Mean Green in what will be a closer game than oddsmakers are anticipating.
North Texas is off to a 5-3 start this season with all three of its losses coming by 13 points or less. That includes an 82-95 loss at Oklahoma as a 15.5-point underdog, which is an Oklahoma team that I believe is better than this BYU squad.
The Cougars have opened 6-2 this season, but they only have two wins by more than 11 points this year. Those came at home against their two easiest opponents in Mount St. Mary's (108-76) and Mesa College (84-60), which were games that didn't even have lines on them. Off a huge win over Utah State, and with UMass on deck, I believe this is a big letdown spot for BYU tonight.
North Texas is 15-6 ATS in its last 21 games versus poor pressure defensive teams who force 14 or less turnovers per game. The Mean Green are 18-7 ATS after playing their last game on the road over the past three seasons. The Cougars are 17-36-1 ATS in their last 54 games following an ATS win. BYU is 2-7-1 ATS in its last 10 home games. The Mean Green are 4-0 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Bet North Texas Tuesday.
|Charlotte Bobcats v. Dallas Mavericks -8
|9 h 49 m
20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Dallas Mavericks -8
The Dallas Mavericks have lost four of their last five games coming into this one. They'll clearly be motivated for a victory tonight against the Charlotte Bobcats, which is a team they have dominated throughout the years.
"We're going to learn about our team right now," coach Rick Carlisle said. "Lose four out of five, have a tough loss like last night and then another tough one like tonight - it's going to test the togetherness and the collective will."
Charlotte, meanwhile, is in a huge letdown spot off a tough 98-99 loss at the defending champion Miami Heat last time out. I look for the Bobcats to suffer a hangover from that loss because they led most of the way before having the game taken away from them down the stretch.
Dallas had gone 16-0 against Charlotte before losing in overtime on the road last November. The Mavericks are a perfect 9-0 at home against the Bobcats, limiting them to just 90.4 points on 42.1 percent shooting in the process. Dallas has won all nine games by an average of 13 points per game.
The Mavericks are 8-2 at home this season where they are scoring an average of 108.5 points per game. Charlotte is scoring just 89.2 points per game overall and 89.9 points per game on the road this year. The Bobcats are 13-37-1 ATS in their last 51 vs. Western Conference opponents. Dallas is 22-6 ATS in its last 28 games following a S.U. loss. Bet the Mavericks Tuesday.
|Phoenix Suns +3.5 v. Memphis Grizzlies
|8 h 19 m
15* NBA Western Conference Line Mistake on Phoenix Suns +3.5
The Memphis Grizzlies have no business being favored tonight against the Phoenix Suns. I fully expect the Suns to win outright, but I'll simply take the points for some insurance.
Phoenix is the most underrated team in the league in 2013. It is off to a 9-8 start that could easily have been better. Seven of its eight losses have come by 8 points or less, including four by 3 points or fewer.
Memphis is expected to be without its two best players tonight. Marc Gasol (16.0 ppg, 7.1 rpg) is out with a knee injury, while Zach Randolph (16.0 ppg, 9.1 rpg) is listed as doubtful with a toe injury.
The loss of Randolph is huge considering he is averaging 22.7 points and 12.5 rebounds while shooting 57.6 percent from the field in his last 16 games versus Phoenix. Meanwhile, the Suns just recently returned Eric Bledsoe, so they are back to close to full strength.
Phoenix is 10-1 ATS as an underdog this season. The Suns are 8-1 ATS in road games this year. The Suns are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games following a ATS loss. The Grizzlies are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games. These four trends combine for a 29-2 system backing Phoenix. Roll with the Suns Tuesday.
|Orlando Magic v. Philadelphia 76ers -3.5
|7 h 9 m
15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Philadelphia 76ers -3.5
The Philadelphia 76ers are showing tremendous value as only a 3.5-point home favorite over the Orlando Magic tonight. Philadelphia will be highly motivated to end a four-game losing streak overall, which included a 94-105 loss at Orlando on November 27, so the 76ers will be out for revenge as well.
Orlando is expected to be without its best player in Nikola Vucevic, who is listed as doubtful with an ankle injury. Vucevic is averaging 14.7 points and 10.9 rebounds per game this season and is simply irreplaceable. Not to mention both Jameer Nelson (foot) and Tobias Harris (ankle) are doubtful for the Magic as well.
Philadelphia is a respectable 5-5 at home this season, while Orlando is just 1-6 on the road. The Magic are 5-16-1 ATS in their last 22 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. The 76ers are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. Take the 76ers Tuesday.
|New Orleans Saints +6 v. Seattle Seahawks
|112 h 15 m
25* Monday Night Football GAME OF THE YEAR on New Orleans Saints +6
The Saints are well-rested coming into this one. They played last Thursday in a hard-fought win at Atlanta, which is a big division rival and a solid win no matter how poor the Falcons have been this season. Getting that extra rest negates most of the advantage that the Seahawks would have had coming off their bye week. I believe the rest factor is probably a non-issue because of this.
New Orleans is playing its best football of the season heading into this contest. It is coming off three straight victories, including home wins over both the Dallas Cowboys (49-17) and San Francisco 49ers (23-20). Sure, the Saints do have two road losses, but they essentially gave both of those games away in setbacks against New England (27-30) and New York (20-26). The Patriots scored the game-winner with five seconds left, while the Jets managed to win despite getting outgained 407-338 for the game.
Looking at the numbers, it
|Atlanta Hawks v. San Antonio Spurs UNDER 197.5
|9 h 51 m
15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Hawks/Spurs UNDER 197.5
The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the Atlanta Hawks and San Antonio Spurs. I fully expect a defensive battle as each team tries to bounce back from a loss and a poor defensive performance.
You know that Greg Popovich is going to preach defense following his team's 106-112 loss to the Houston Rockets on Saturday. The same can be said for the Hawks, who fell 101-108 at Washington on Saturday. Neither team is satisfied with their efforts defensively coming into this one.
That's especially the case for San Antonio, which is only giving up 91.6 points per game on 42.8% shooting this season. The Spurs rank 2nd in the league in defensive efficiency, giving up just 93.2 points per 100 possessions. Atlanta is a respectable 12th in defensive efficiency (101.5).
Both Jeff Teague and Kyle Korver are questionable for Atlanta heading into this one. It would be a big blow to their offense if either player is sidelined, but I'm still going to be on the UNDER regardless. That would just be an added bonus if one or both sits.
Each of the last four meetings between San Antonio and Atlanta have seen 196 or fewer combined points (196, 191, 188, 187). The UNDER is 5-0 in Hawks last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Atlanta is 9-1 to the UNDER versus very good shooting teams who make 48% of their shots or more over the past two seasons. Roll with the UNDER in this game Monday.
|Florida +5 v. Connecticut
|8 h 49 m
15* Florida/UConn ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Florida +5
I look for the Florida Gators to pull off the upset tonight at Connecticut, but I'll take the points for some insurance. The Huskies are way overvalued in the early going due to their perfect 7-0 start. A closer look shows that they are very fortunate to be unbeaten right now.
In fact, three of their wins have come by a combined four points! They have beaten Maryland (78-77), Boston College (72-70) and Indiana (59-58) all on neutral courts. I believe Florida is the best team that they have played yet. The Gators' only loss came at Wisconsin (53-59).
Florida has a huge edge in rebounding in this one. The Huskies have been outrebounded in three straight games, and they're allowing an average of 14.7 offensive rebounds per game on the season, which is one of the highest marks in the country. UConn gave up 20 to Loyola-Maryland in a lackluster 76-66 home victory last time out.
The Gators began a tough stretch of games with a 67-66 win over a very good Florida State team on Friday. The Gators grabbed 20 offensive rebounds in that contest. In fact, they have outrebounded each of their last five opponents while averaging 14.0 offensive boards during that stretch.
Connecticut is 0-9 against the spread after four or more consecutive wins over the past three seasons. This trend just goes to show you how overvalued the Huskies have been once they start to see some success, which is certainly the case here. Take Florida Monday.
|Minnesota Timberwolves +9 v. Oklahoma City Thunder
|9 h 26 m
15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota Timberwolves +9
This is a huge letdown spot for Oklahoma City, which is coming off its overtime victory over the Golden State Warriors on Friday. Russell Westbrook nailed a 3-pointer with 0.1 seconds left in the extra session to beat the Warriors. Off such a big, thrilling win, I look for the Thunder to come back unmotivated today.
Motivation will not be problem for the Timberwolves, who have lost five of their last seven coming in. This is a business trip for Minnesota, which won at Dallas last night by a final of 112-106. I wouldn't be surprised one bit to see this team pull off the upset tonight as well, but I'll take the points for some insurance.
Oklahoma City is 13-29 ATS after a close win by 3 points or less since 1996. It is coming back to lose 100.0 to 102.6 in this spot. Bet the Timberwolves Sunday.
|St. Louis Rams +9 v. San Francisco 49ers
|84 h 40 m
15* Rams/49ers Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on St. Louis +9
The Rams have fought back to put themselves in position to pull within one game of the 49ers for the 6th and final wild card spot in the NFC. You know they will be laying it all on the field Sunday with their season essentially on the line in this one. That
|Tennessee Titans +4.5 v. Indianapolis Colts
|81 h 36 m
15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Tennessee Titans +4.5
If the season were to end today, the Tennessee Titans would be in the playoffs. They clearly have a lot to play for the rest of the way, and would love nothing more than to pull within one game of Indianapolis for first place in the AFC South. That
|Jacksonville Jaguars +7 v. Cleveland Browns
|81 h 35 m
20* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Jacksonville Jaguars +7
The Jaguars are playing their best football of the season of late. They have also played their best football on the road this year. They are 2-0 straight up and 2-0 against the spread in their last two road games, beating Tennessee (29-27) as an 11.5-point underdog, while also topping Houston (13-6) outright as a 10.5-point dog. The betting public wants nothing to do with this team, and as a result their lines have been inflated.
Asking the Browns to lay a touchdown to any team is asking a lot. That
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers +8.5 v. Carolina Panthers
|81 h 35 m
25* NFL Situational GAME OF THE YEAR on Tampa Bay Buccaneers +8.5
This is a great spot to fade the Carolina Panthers. They overcame a double-digit deficit last week in a big letdown spot against the Dolphins to win by a final of 20-16. If they would have lost that game, they would have come back focused.
Now, I fully expect them to have a mental lapse this week considering they have their biggest game of the season on deck next week against the New Orleans Saints. They will be overlooking the Buccaneers in this one, allowing Tampa to not only stay within the spread, but likely win this game outright.
Overlooking the Bucs has been a trend for every team they have faced over the past three weeks. They have rolled off three straight victories over the Dolphins (22-19), Falcons (41-28) and Lions (24-21). However, their solid play started a week before this winning streak started in a 24-27 overtime loss at Seattle as a 16-point underdog.
Tampa Bay might be the most underrated team in the league right now. Its 0-8 start was an absolute fluke as it found a way to lose several close games, including setbacks against the Jets (17-18), Saints (14-16) and Cardinals (10-13). Five of its eight losses this season have come by 8 points or less.
The biggest reason for the Bucs turnaround has been the play of quarterback Mike Glennon, who is completing 62.5 percent of his passes for 1,782 yards with 13 touchdowns and four interceptions on the season. In his last six starts, Glennon has thrown nine touchdowns against only one interception. His only poor start came back in his first start of the season in Week 4 against the Cardinals.
Carolina only averages 317.9 yards per game to rank 26th in the league in total offense. It relies heavily on its running game, which ranks 9th in the league at 126.3 yards per game. Well, the Bucs have the perfect antidote, boasting a run defense that ranks 9th in the league at 101.6 yards per game. The key to slowing down the Panthers is stopping their running game, and the Bucs have the personnel to do it, especially with the likely return of linebacker Mason Foster (shoulder) this week.
Having already beaten the Bucs earlier this season in their first meeting, and with the Saints on deck, it's only human nature for the Panthers to not bring their full focus to the field Sunday. This team was way undervalued midseason due to a slow start, but after seven straight victories, the Panthers are now overrated, and that is reflected in this line. We'll take advantage.
The Buccaneers are 5-0-1 against the spread in their last six games following a win. Tampa Bay is 6-1 against the number in its last seven games vs. at team with a winning record, time and time again stepping up its game when playing what is perceived to be a superior team. The Buccaneers are also 19-7 against the number in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Tampa Bay is 9-4 against the spread in its last 13 road games overall. Take the Buccaneers Sunday.
|Miami Dolphins v. NY Jets -121
|81 h 35 m
15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on New York Jets Money Line (-121)
The Jets will certainly be motivated for a win Sunday following back-to-back blowout road losses where they simply gave the games away by committing a combined seven turnovers. The good news is that the Jets are still tied for the 6th and final playoff spot in the AFC, so they still have a ton to play for. Even better news is the fact that they will be returning home, which is where they have clearly played their best football of the season.
Indeed, New York is 4-1 straight up and 4-1 against the spread at home this season. It has beaten some very good teams at home, too. The Jets beat the New England Patriots by a final of 30-27 at MetLife Stadium back on October 20. They also knocked off the New Orleans Saints at home by a final of 26-20 on November 3. With how well they have played at home, getting them as less than a field goal favorite is certainly be a gift from oddsmakers.
Both teams are pretty evenly-matched offensively, but there
|Wichita State +2 v. St. Louis
|3 h 22 m
15* CBB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Wichita State +2
I would be surprised to see Wichita State as an underdog the rest of the year. This is a team that went to the Final Four last season, and somehow they're getting overlooked in 2013-14. I'll take advantage and back the Shockers as a dog here.
The Shockers have opened 7-0 this season with seven straight victories by double-digits. That includes a 77-54 road win at Tulsa, and victories over both Depaul (90-72) and BYU (74-62) on neutral courts.
Saint Louis is a quality team that returns similar talent to Wichita State from last year, but this team is obviously way overvalued in the early going. It has opened 6-1 this season with a loss to Wisconsin. I would argue that the Billikens don't have a good win yet.
The Shockers are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Shockers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games. Wichita State is 9-1-1 ATS in its last 11 games overall. Take Wichita State Sunday.
|Villanova v. Iowa -2
|11 h 48 m
15* CBB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Iowa -2
The Iowa Hawkeyes are off to a 7-0 start this season with five of those victories coming by 31 or more points. This is one of the deepest teams in the country that can handle playing three games in three days because of it.
The Hawkeyes have 10 players averaging more than 15 minutes per game. All ten of those players are averaging at least 4.6 points per contest, and all five starters are back from last year. This team is ranked in the Top 25 for a reason and will only continue to climb after beating Villanova Saturday.
The Wildcats are coming off a huge win over Kansas yesterday, and even though this is the championship game in the Battle 4 Atlantic, I look for them to suffer a letdown off such a big win.
The Hawkeyes are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 non-conference games. Iowa is 27-9 ATS in its last 36 games overall. The Hawkeyes are 21-6 ATS in their last 27 games following a win. Iowa is 18-6 ATS in its last 24 games vs. a team with a winning record. Bet Iowa Saturday.
|UCLA v. USC -3
|62 h 25 m
25* College Football GAME OF THE YEAR on USC -3
The USC Trojans have been revived under interim head coach Ed Orgeron. They have gone 6-1 straight up and 5-2 against the spread with Oregeron at the helm with their only loss coming at Notre Dame by a final of 10-14. They have beaten some very good teams along the way, topping Arizona (38-31), Utah (19-3) and Stanford (20-17) at home, while also going on the road and knocking off Oregon State (31-14). No team in the country wants to play this team right now.
While the Trojans come into this game with a ton of momentum, the Bruins will be in a tough state of mind following their 33-38 home loss to Arizona State last week. That game was essentially for the Pac-12 South Title, and I foresee UCLA suffering a hangover this week because of it. I also expect that USC will be motivated to avenge last year
|Chicago Bulls v. Cleveland Cavaliers UNDER 182
|9 h 53 m
15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Bulls/Cavaliers UNDER 182
The Chicago Bulls and Cleveland Cavaliers will take part in a low-scoring, defensive battle tonight. I look for a similar combined score to the 96-81 victory Chicago handed Cleveland in their first meeting of the season, when Derrick Rose was healthy.
The Bulls have been atrocious offensively without Rose, scoring just 82, 83 and 99 points in their last three games overall. They are also without Jimmy Butler, which gets overlooked because of his ability to stretch the floor and break down a defense from time to time.
Both Cleveland and Chicago like to slow down the tempo. The Bulls rank 23rd int he league in pace at 95.6 possessions per game, while the Cavs are 14th at 97.3 possessions per game. Cleveland is 28th in offensive efficiency at 92.6 points per 100 possessions, while Chicago is 26th at 96.0 points per 100 possessions.
Chicago is 9-1 to the UNDER when playing against a team with a winning percentage of 25% or less over the last two seasons. The Bulls are 8-1 to the UNDER when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points this season. The UNDER is 7-1 in Cavaliers last eight home games. Roll with the UNDER in this game Saturday.
|Notre Dame +16 v. Stanford
|20 h 27 m
15* Notre Dame/Stanford Rivalry Play on Notre Dame +16
This is an awfully big number for a rivalry game like this one. That
|Boston College v. Syracuse +3
|17 h 58 m
20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Syracuse +3
The Syracuse Orange have plenty of reason to be motivated for a win at home Saturday. First, they need one more win to become bowl eligible. Secondly, this is Senior Day, so they want to send their seniors out with a victory in their final home game.
Boston College is one of the most overrated teams in the country, and it should not be favored here. It is 7-4 on the season but nowhere near as good as its record. The Eagles rank 89th in the country in total offense at 370.4 yards per game, and 76th in total defense at 417.1 yards per game. As you can see, they are getting outgained by roughly 47 yards per game, which is a number more indicative of a team with a losing record than one that is 7-4.
The biggest strength of Boston College is its running game, which averaged 221 yards per game and 5.5 per carry. The biggest strength of the Syracuse defense is its ability to stop the run. The Orange rank 27th in the country against the run, giving up just 133.5 yards per game and 3.7 per carry this season.
Syracuse is 3-2 at home this season, outscoring opponents 29.8 to 16.6, or by an average of 13.2 points per game. Boston College is just 2-3 on the road this year, getting outscored 21.6 to 30.6, or by an average of 9.0 points per game. Its only wins came at Maryland (29-26) as a 2-point favorite and at New Mexico State (48-34) as a 25-point favorite.
The Orange are 18-3 against the spread in their last 21 home games after allowing 75 or less rushing yards in their previous game. The Eagles are 8-22 against the spread in their last 30 games vs. a team with a losing record. Boston College is 2-9 against the number in its last 11 road games. Syracuse is 7-2-1 against the number in its last 10 home games. Roll with Syracuse Saturday.
|Penn State +24.5 v. Wisconsin
|17 h 57 m
15* Penn State/Wisconsin ESPN No-Brainer on Penn State +24.5
The Wisconsin Badgers were undervalued all season up to this point. As a result, they have gone 9-1-1 against the spread in their 11 games this season. The betting public has jumped all over this team because of it, and now their numbers have been inflated over the past two weeks.
Wisconsin was overvalued as a 15.5-point favorite at Minnesota last week, winning by a final of 20-7 to miss the cover. Now, it is certainly overvalued again as a 24.5-point favorite against a quality Penn State team that will give it a run for its money.
Remember, Penn State was only a 15-point underdog at Ohio State on October 26. Now, oddsmakers are giving the Nittany Lions nearly 10 more points against Wisconsin, which lost to Ohio State. That fact alone shows you how there is a ton of value in backing the Nittany Lions in this game Saturday.
The key to stopping Wisconsin is stopping its running game. The 11 opponents that Penn State has faced this season average 179 rushing yards per game and 4.6 per carry. The Nittany Lions have held those 11 opponents to well below their season average, yielding just 146 rushing yards per game and 3.9 per carry. That shows you that Penn State is solid against the run.
Last year, Penn State beat Wisconsin by a final of 24-21 as a 1-point home favorite. It held the Badgers to just 158 rushing yards on 43 carries in the win, giving up a mere 3.7 yards per carry in the win. I don't believe there is that much difference between these teams from last year to this year, so there's no way the Badgers should be laying 24.5 points in the rematch.
Plays on road underdogs (PENN ST) - average rushing team (3.5 to 4.3 YPR) against a good rushing defense (3 to 3.5 YPR) after 7+ games, in conference games are 31-9 (66.7%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The Nittany Lions are 7-1 against the spread in their last eight games following a S.U. loss. They have not lost two straight games this season, bouncing back from each of their first four losses with a victory in their next game. Take Penn State Saturday.
|Temple +9 v. Memphis
|13 h 27 m
15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Temple +9
The Temple Owls are vastly underrated due to their 1-10 record right now. I have no doubt this is much better than a 1-10 team, and they have proven it in the second half of the season by playing several very good teams close.
Since a 33-14 home win over Army on October 14, the Owls have lost each of their last four games by 10 points or fewer. They fell on the road to SMU (49-59) as a 14-point dog and at Rutgers (20-23) as an 11.5-point dog. They also lost at home to UCF (36-39) as a 17.5-point dog, and against UConn (21-28) as a 6-point favorite. They obviously should not have lost to the Huskies, outgaining them 372-235 for the game, but their three turnovers gave that game away.
The reason for the improvement of this team has been quarterback P.J. Walker, who has been an absolute playmaker for this offense since being inserted into the starting role against Louisville. Walker has completed 60.6 percent of his passes for 1,756 yards with 16 touchdowns against seven interceptions, while also rushing for 273 yards and three scores. His dual-threat ability adds a dimension to this offense that it did not have before. The Owls are 6-1 ATS with Walker as their starter.
Memphis has no business being more than a touchdown favorite here. While it has some solid performances against good teams like Temple does, the fact of the matter is that its only three wins this season have come against Arkansas State, Tennessee-Martin and South Florida. Off a heartbreaking loss to Louisville last week by a touchdown, the Tigers could easily suffer a hangover effect this week, which was similar to what Temple suffered last week in a loss to UConn after falling to UCF by a field goal the previous week.
Temple is 8-0 against the spread in its last eight games following two straight games with 40 or more pass attempts. The Owls are 7-1 against the number as an underdog this season. Memphis is 5-11 against the spread in its last 16 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Bet Temple Saturday.
|San Diego St v. Creighton -4
|11 h 52 m
15* SDSU/Creighton CBB PLAY OF THE DAY on Creighton -4
The Creighton Bluejays returned four starters from last season and are one of the best players on the country. That includes Doug McDermott (23.2 ppg, 7.7 rpg), who is off to another monster start and may be the best players in all of college basketball. McDermott is averaging 27.4 points and 7.6 boards while leading the Bluejays to a perfect 5-0 start this season.
He is getting plenty of help, too. Devin Brooks (12.2 ppg, 4.4 rpg), Ethan Wragge (10.2 ppg) and Austin Chatman (9.8 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 5.4 apg) have fit in with McDermott nicely. The Bluejays have shot 51.5% or better in all five games this season, which is impressive considering they have faced three very good opponents. They beat both St. Joseph's (73-69) and Arizona State (88-60) on the road, as well as Tulsa (82-72) at home. They are shooting 53.5% from the field on the season.
San Diego State lost four of its top six scorers from last season, including leading scorers Jamaal Franklin (17.0 ppg, 9.5 rpg) and Chase Tapley (13.5 ppg). The Aztecs only bring back Xavier Thames (9.5 ppg), J.J. O'Brien (7.2 ppg) and Winston Shepard (5.7) as players of relevance. They have played an extremely soft schedule outside of Arizona, who they lost to by a final of 60-69 at home as a 3.5-point underdog.
Plays on neutral court teams (CREIGHTON) - an explosive offensive team (>=76 PPG) against a good offensive team (74-76 PPG), after scoring 80 points or more 2 straight games are 35-8 (81.4%) ATS over the last five seasons. San Diego State is only hitting 63.0% of its free throws this year, which is a big factor given the emphasis on fouls.
The Aztecs are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. win. San Diego State is 0-5 ATS in its last five vs. Big East opponents. The Bluejays are 7-1 ATS in their last eight neutral site games. Creighton is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games overall. Bet Creighton Friday.
|South Florida +27 v. Central Florida
|12 h 37 m
15* South Florida/UCF ESPN No-Brainer on South Florida +27
The Central Florida Knights are way overvalued right now due to their 9-1 start. The betting public has been all over them of late, which has inflated this number. At 2-8 on the season, the South Florida Bulls come into this game undervalued. I look for this to be a much closer game than oddsmakers are anticipating Friday night.
While South Florida has lost four straight coming in, I've seen enough from this team against quality competition to know that the Bulls can hang tough in this one. They beat Cincinnati 26-20 at home despite being a 10.5-point underdog. They also went on the road and only lost 23-35 at Houston, throwing for 311 yards in the loss. That's the same Houston team that nearly beat UCF, losing 14-19 on the road.
South Florida has really turned up its pressure defensively the past two weeks, limiting Memphis to just 242 total yards, and SMU to a mere 280 total yards. The Bulls rank 29th in the country in total defense at 355.8 yards per game allowed. UCF will have a hard time scoring 27 points, let alone winning by 27.
The Knights have played in several close games this year and are really fortunate to be 9-1 right now. Six of their 10 games have been decided by a touchdown or less, but they've gone 5-1 in those contests. That includes victories over lowly Memphis (24-17) and Temple (39-36). If Memphis (3-7) and Temple (1-10) can compete with UCF, then South Florida can, too.
Plays on a road team (S FLORIDA) - after scoring and allowing 17 pts or less points against opponent after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game are 30-10 (75%) ATS over the last five seasons. UCF is 0-6 ATS off a home win against a conference rival over the past two seasons. The Knights are 2-10 against the number off a home win over the last three years. Roll with South Florida Friday.
|Washington Wizards +10.5 v. Indiana Pacers
|9 h 32 m
20* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Wizards +10.5
The Indiana Pacers are way overvalued right now due to their 14-1 start. There's no question this is one of the best teams in the league, but they have taken advantage of a very easy schedule thus far, and should not be laying double-digits to Washington tonight.
Indiana has only faced one team this season that currently has a winning record, and that was Memphis (8-7). With with biggest game of the season against the Los Angeles Clippers on deck, this could certainly be a lookahead spot for the Pacers.
Quietly, the Washington Wizards have won three straight and five of their last six games overall heading into this one. They are undervalued right now due to a poor start to the season, with road losses to the likes of the Heat, Thunder, Mavericks and Spurs, who are four of the best teams in the NBA. There's no question that Washington is better than its 7-8 record would indicate, while Indiana is nowhere near as good as its 14-1 mark.
These teams met four times last season with Indiana winning three of them by 4, 7 and 8 points. Washington won the other by a final of 104-85 at home as a 4-point dog in their final meeting of the season, which is when John Wall was actually healthy, and he led the way with 37 points. Wall miss the other three meetings, and the Wizards still hung tough and lost all three by 8 points or fewer.
Plays against home favorites of 10 or more points (INDIANA) - after 3 or more consecutive wins, on Friday nights are 32-7 (82.1%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Wizards are 27-13-1 ATS in their last 41 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings in this series. Take the Wizards Friday.
|Dallas Mavericks v. Atlanta Hawks OVER 202
|8 h 2 m
15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Hawks/Mavericks OVER 202
The books have set the bar too low in this contest between the Dallas Mavericks and Atlanta Hawks tonight. I'll take advantage by backing the OVER in what I believe will be an absolute shootout with each team topping the 100-point mark.
The reason this total has been set so low is because both Dallas and Atlanta have been going UNDER the total a lot recently. In fact, The UNDER is 4-0 in Mavs last four games overall, while the UNDER is 6-1 in the Hawks last seven. However, these recent trends have provided us with a ton of value to back the OVER.
Dallas beat Atlanta by a final of 118-109 in the season opener for 227 combined points. I expect a similar result tonight. The OVER is now 5-0 in the last five meetings in this series. In the last three meetings, they have combined for 227, 240 and 206 points, respectively.
Both teams like to push the tempo, which will create the perfect storm for a high-scoring affair tonight. Dallas ranks 7th in the league in pace at 99.4 possessions per game, while Atlanta ranks 11th in pace at 98.2 possessions per contest. The Mavericks are also 5th in the league in offensive efficiency at 106.2 points per 100 possessions, while Atlanta is 15th at 101.0 points per 100 possessions.
Dallas is 27-10 to the OVER in road games after four or more consecutive unders since 1996. The OVER is 20-5-1 in Mavericks last 26 games vs. NBA Southeast Division opponents. The OVER is 21-9 in Hawks last 30 Friday games. Roll with the OVER in this game Friday.
|Cleveland Cavaliers v. Boston Celtics UNDER 189
|7 h 15 m
15* NBA Friday Total ANNIHILATOR on Cavaliers/Celtics UNDER 189
The books have set the number way too high in this contest between the Cleveland Cavaliers and Boston Celtics. I'll take advantage by backing the UNDER as do not expect either team to reach 95 points in this one, which is what it would take to go over the total.
These are two of the worst offensive teams in the league as the Cavs are scoring 92.6 points per game on 41.8% shooting, while the Celtics are scoring 92.9 points per game on 44.3% shooting. Neither team really like to push the tempo, either.
Both ranks in the middle of the pack in pace as Cleveland is 15th at 97.0 possessions per game, while Boston is 18th at 96.6 possessions per game. The key here is that neither team has been able to do much with those possessions. Cleveland ranks 27th in offensive efficiency at 93.4 points per 100 possessions, while Boston is 26th at 95.6 points per 100 possessions.
The UNDER is 3-0 in the last three meetings in this series with combined scores of 188, 185 and 185 points. In fact, the Celtics and Cavaliers have combined for 188 or less points in six of their last seven meetings overall.
Boston is 19-6 to the UNDER vs. poor passing teams who average 20 or less assists per game over the past two seasons. The UNDER is 8-1 in Cavaliers last nine Friday games. The UNDER is 12-2 in Cavaliers last 12 vs. NBA Atlantic Division foes. The UNDER is 21-8 in Cavs last 29 vs. Eastern Conference opponents. The UNDER is 8-1 in Celtics last nine vs. NBA Central Division foes. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.
|Fresno State -7.5 v. San Jose State
|7 h 10 m
20* CFB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Fresno State -7.5
The Fresno State Bulldogs are fighting for a BCS bowl. Not only do they need to continue to win, but they need to do so impressively. A blowout road victory against a quality San Jose State team would certainly help their cause. Winning by big margins has been no problem for the Bulldogs all season. They are outscoring opponents by an average of 19.8 points per game on the season. They have been at their best on the road, outscoring foes by 24.3 points per game away from home.
Fresno State boasts an offense that ranks 2nd in the country at 575.6 total yards per game, including 46.8 points per game. Quarterback Derek Carr deserves serious Heisman Trophy consideration. The senior is completing 69.7 percent of his passes for 3,948 yards with 39 touchdowns against four interceptions. Carr and company should have their way with a San Jose State stop unit that is giving up 33.5 points and 442.3 yards per game to rank 98th in the country in total defense.
San Jose State has certainly taken a step back from last season. They are starting to really feel the pressure of trying to become bowl eligible, losing each of their last three games while going 0-3 against the spread in the process. That includes home losses to San Diego State (30-34) and Navy (52-58), as well as a blowout road loss at Nevada (16-38). That setback against Nevada was the fourth blowout loss suffered by the Trojans this season. They were also beaten by Stanford (13-34), Minnesota (24-43) and Utah State (12-40).
Fresno State is 15-2 straight up in its last 17 meetings with San Jose State. Plays against any team (SAN JOSE ST)
|Miami (Florida) v. Pittsburgh +3
|7 h 0 m
15* Miami/Pittsburgh ABC ANNIHILATOR on Pittsburgh +3
The Pittsburgh Panthers have played their best football of the season over the past three weeks coming in. They have picked up a home win over Notre Dame (28-21) as well as a road win at Syracuse (17-16). They did lose to North Carolina (27-34), but few teams in the country are playing as well as the Tar Heels right now. This is a team that will be really motivated to put an end to Miami
|Pittsburgh Steelers +3 v. Baltimore Ravens
|25 h 24 m
20* Steelers/Ravens Thanksgiving Night DESSERT on Pittsburgh +3
The Steelers are playing their best football of the season over the past three weeks to get right back into the thick if the playoff race in the AFC. They have won three straight and five of their last seven games overall to get to 5-6 on the season and tied with several teams for the 6th and final Wild Card spot in the conference.
All three of their wins during this streak have come by double-digits with home victories over Buffalo (23-10) and Detroit (37-27), as well as a road win at Cleveland (27-11). The Steelers are playing mistake-free football now unlike they were at the beginning of the year, turning the ball over just once int heir last three contests.
Ben Roethlisberger has really stepped of his game of late. The veteran has thrown for an average of 297.0 yards per game with 11 touchdowns against three interceptions in his last four games overall. Antonio Brown is one of the top receivers in the game, catching 80 balls for 1,044 yards and six touchdowns.
While the Steelers have been very impressive offensively of late, the Ravens have taken a big step back on that side of the ball this year. They rank 29th in the league in total offense at 308.8 yards per game. They
|Xavier v. Iowa -4.5
|14 h 56 m
15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Iowa -4.5
The Iowa Hawkeyes are one of the most underrated teams in the entire country. They returned all five starters from last year, and they are one of the deepest teams in the land. I look for them to blow out Xavier tonight in Round 1 of the Battle 4 Atlantis Tournament.
Indeed, the Hawkeyes are deep. They have 10 players who are averaging 15 or more minutes per game. A big reason for that is that they have been blowing out the opposition in the early going, but they aren't afraid to go 10 deep against good teams, too. Iowa has outscored its first five opponents 92.6 to 54.6, or by an average of 38.0 points per game en route to a 5-0 start.
Ten players are also averaging 5.0 points per game or more this season. Leading the way has been Roy-Devyn Marble (14.6 ppg, 3.8 apg, 3.2 spg), Aaron White (13.6 ppg, 7.6 rpg), Jarrod Uthoff (11.8 ppg, 6.8 rpg), Peter Jok (9.4 ppg), Zach McCabe (7.8 ppg, 4.0 rpg) and Melsahn Basabe (7.2 ppg, 6.4 rpg). This is certainly a team you will see in the NCAA Tournament down the road, and one that is a sleeper to win the Big Ten.
Xavier brings back a quality squad as well with three starters returning. I like what I've seen from the Musketeers thus far, but their 5-0 start has come against some very soft competition as well, and they haven't been nearly as dominant as Iowa. They only beat a mediocre Tennessee team by a final of 67-63 at home on November 12.
The one stat that really stood out to me when researching this game was the free throw shooting for both teams. With an emphasis on calling more fouls this season, free throw shooting is at a premium. Iowa is getting to the line 36 times per game, converting on 74.2% of its opportunities in the process. Xavier is getting to the line 28 times per game, but making a woeful 59.9% of them.
In a game that is expected to be close according to oddsmakers, free throw shooting could easily be the difference as to why the Hawkeyes cover this one, even though I fully expect them to win via blowout.
Iowa is 20-6 ATS in its last 26 games overall. The Hawkeyes are 9-0 ATS in their last nine games after scoring 75 or more points in two or more straight games coming in. Iowa is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games after playing two consecutive games as a home favorite. The Hawkeyes are 11-0 ATS in their last 11 games after playing two consecutive games as a favorite. These three trends combine for a perfect 28-0 system backing the Hawkeyes. Roll with Iowa Thursday.
|Oakland Raiders +9 v. Dallas Cowboys
|21 h 24 m
15* Raiders/Cowboys Mid-Afternoon FEAST on Oakland +9
Believe it or not, the Raiders are still very much alive in the AFC playoff race. They only trail the Tennessee Titans (5-6) by one game for the sixth seed. Sure, they will probably have to almost win out to make it, but they aren
|Green Bay Packers +7 v. Detroit Lions
|17 h 24 m
15* Packers/Lions NFC Early ANNIHILATOR on Green Bay +7
|Syracuse -4 v. Baylor
|10 h 32 m
15* Baylor/Syracuse ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Syracuse -4
The Orange have really impressed me in the early going en route to a perfect 6-0 start this season. Their wins over two very good teams in Minnesota (75-67) and California (92-81) to open the Maui Invitational really show that Jim Boeheim has another great squad at Syracuse this season.
C.J. Fair (17.0 ppg, 6.2 rpg) and Jerami Grant (13.2 ppg, 7.2 ppg) have really stepped up their games as key returnees from last season. Freshman Tyler Ennis (11.8 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 4.0 apg, 2.7 spg) has done a tremendous job of running the offense. Trevor Cooney (14.8 ppg, 48.8% 3-pointers) has proven to be the next great sharpshooter for the Orange.
Baylor has been unimpressive to me thus far. It barely escaped with home victories over South Carolina (66-64) and Charleston Southern (69-64) before heading to the Maui Invitational. I believe the loss of leading scorer Pierre Jackson (19.8 ppg), 7.1 apg) has really taken its toll on this squad. The Bears were fortunate to escape with a 67-66 victory over Dayton last night as well.
The Orange are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game. Syracuse is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games vs. Big 12 opponents. Baylor is 1-4 ATS in its last five games vs. ACC foes. Take Syracuse Wednesday.
|Denver Nuggets v. Minnesota Timberwolves OVER 211.5
|16 h 2 m
15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Nuggets/Timberwolves OVER 211.5
I look for a shootout tonight between the Minnesota Timberwolves and Denver Nuggets. That was certainly the case when these teams got together for the first time this season on November 15. Denver beat Minnesota 117-113 for a combined score of 230, which is roughly 19 points more than tonight's posted total of 211.5.
In that first meeting, both teams ignored the shot clock and simply got the ball up as quickly as they could. Minnesota hoisted up a ridiculous 97 shots, while Denver wasn't far behind with 94 shots. There wasn't much defense being played, either, as both teams got good looks. The Timberwolves shot 48.9% from the floor, while the Nuggets shot 48.5%.
The reason I expect a similar result tonight is because both teams play at very fast paces. In fact, the Timberwolves rank 2nd in the league in pace at 101.9 possessions per game, while the Nuggets are a close 3rd in pace at 100.9 possession per contest. When you get two teams that like to play at fast paces together, it creates a perfect storm, making for a great opportunity to back the OVER.
Denver is 33-16 to the OVER as a road underdog over the past three seasons. The OVER is 16-7-1 in Nuggets last 24 road games overall. The OVER is 35-15-2 in Nuggets last 52 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The OVER is 5-1 in Timberwolves last six games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings between these teams played in Minnesota. We have seen combined scores of 213, 195, 233 and 217 points in the last four meetings in Minnesota. Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.
|San Antonio Spurs v. Oklahoma City Thunder -2.5
|16 h 1 m
20* Spurs/Thunder Western Conference ANNIHILATOR on Oklahoma City -2.5
The San Antonio Spurs are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers tonight due to their 11-game winning streak coming into this one. A closer look at the streak shows that it has come against soft competition.
Only two of the 11 wins have come against teams with winning records, and those were against Denver (7-6) and Golden State (9-6). The game against the Nuggets was the first game of the steak back when Denver was really struggling early in the year. The win over the Warriors game by a final of 76-74 when Golden State was playing without its best player in Stephen Curry.
Oklahoma City has been a much tougher team since the return of Russell Westbrook. It has won eight of its past 10 games overall with its only losses coming on the road against the Clippers (103-111) and Warriors (115-116). Now, Westbrook has had five days off after sitting out the Thunder's 95-73 home win over Utah on November 24 in their last game. Coach Mark Brooks picked a perfect spot to give his knee some rest, and he'll be ready to go tonight because of it.
Oklahoma City is a perfect 6-0 at home this season, outscoring opponents by an average of 10.0 points per game. Home-court advantage has been huge in this series between the Spurs and Thunder. The home team has won 13 of the past 15 meetings in this series. The Thunder are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five home meetings with San Antonio, winning all five games by 6 points or more. Take Oklahoma City Wednesday.
|Miami Heat v. Cleveland Cavaliers +9
|16 h 31 m
15* Heat/Cavaliers ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on Cleveland +9
The Cleveland Cavaliers are showing tremendous value as a big home underdog to the Miami Heat Wednesday night. They have had three full days off since their ugly 96-126 loss at San Antonio, which is a defeat that is stuck in the betting public's minds, which is also why this line has been inflated.
Another reason for the inflation is the fact that Miami enters this contest on a 7-game winning streak. A closer look at the streak shows that the Heat have only beaten two teams with winning records during this run. Miami has a way of playing down to its competition, and that has certainly been the case when meeting up with the Cavaliers of late.
In fact, all four meetings between the Cavaliers and Heat last season were decided by 4 points or less. Miami won 110-108 and 109-105 at home, as well as 98-95 and 96-95 on the road. After coming so close to beating the Heat last season, you can bet the Cavaliers are hungry to get over the hump pull off the upset in their first meeting of the 2013-14 campaign.
Plays against favorites (MIAMI) - top caliber team - outscoring their opponents by 9+ points/game against opponent after allowing 105 points or more are 48-18 (72.7%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Heat are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games following an ATS win. Miami is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. Cleveland is 4-1 ATS in its last five games when laying on three or more days of rest. Roll with the Cavaliers Wednesday.
|Philadelphia 76ers +4.5 v. Orlando Magic
|15 h 22 m
20* NBA Situational GAME OF THE MONTH on Philadelphia 76ers +4.5
The Philadelphia 76ers are in a great spot tonight. They come in on three days' rest, so they'll certainly be ready to go having last played on Saturday. They'll be up against an Orlando team that will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 4th game in 5 days.
The 76ers have been underrated all season. They have opened the season 6-9 straight up and 9-6 against the spread, sporting one of the league's top scoring offenses at 103.7 points per game. Evan Turner (21.7 ppg, 6.9 rpg), Michael Carter-Williams (17.3 ppg, 7.4 apg, 5.7 rpg, 3.0 spg) and Spencer Hawes (16.8 ppg, 10.3 rpg) lead six 76ers who are averaging in double figures scoring this season.
Orlando is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers after its upset victory over Atlanta last night. That certainly sets the Magic up for a letdown spot here, and playing their 4th game in 5 days, they certainly won't be able to match the intensity level of the 76ers, who love to push the tempo. In fact, Philadelphia ranks 1st in the league in pace, and it will wear down Orlando tonight.
I'm not a huge trends guy, but one of the best ones I have come across all season is that Jacque Vaughn is 1-14 against the spread as a favorite as the coach of Orlando. This team cannot be trusted in the role of the favorite, especially in such a tough situation like tonight's spot. Bet the 76ers Wednesday.
|Brigham Young v. Wichita State -3
|10 h 12 m
20* BYU/Wichita State ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Wichita State -3
Rarely will you get the opportunity to back Wichita State as such a small favorite the rest of the season. I'm going to take full advantage tonight and back them in the CBE Hall of Fame Classic Final in Kansas City, MO tonight against BYU.
Remember, this is a Wichita State team that made it to the FInal Four last year before bowing out to eventual champion Louisville by a final of 72-68. The Shockers returned plenty of talent from that team to make another run in 2013. Cleanthony Early (13.9 ppg, 5.4 rpg), Ron Baker (8.7 ppg) and Tekele Cotton (6.5 ppg) all return, as do several other key role players.
Wichita State has opened 6-0 this season and has yet to be tested. All six of its wins have come by 14 points or more, including a 77-54 road win over Tulsa as a 6-point favorite, and a 90-72 victory over DePaul last night as an 8-point favorite. Early (14.8 ppg, 7.3 rpg), Baker (14.0 ppg, 3.8 apg) and Cotton (11.0 ppg, 4.0 rpg) have all stepped up their games this season. Also, returnee Fred VanVleet (13.2 ppg, 5.8 apg) has done a tremendous job of running the offense at point guard.
BYU is a talented team, but it is nowhere near as good as the Shockers this season. The Cougars caught Iowa State in a huge letdown spot off a big win over Michigan previously, and they couldn't get the job done at home, falling 88-90. They also struggled as a 7-point favorite against Texas last night, winning by a final of 86-82. The Longhorns are certainly down this season, so that win was far from impressive.
Wichita State is 12-1 ATS versus up-tempo teams averaging 62 or more shots per game since 1997. BYU is 1-9 ATS as a neutral court underdog of 3 points or less since 1997. The Shockers are 17-4 ATS as a neutral court favorite of 6 points or less since 1997. Bet Wichita State Tuesday.
|Golden State Warriors v. New Orleans Pelicans OVER 204
|8 h 58 m
20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Warriors/Pelicans OVER 204
The books have set the bar too low tonight in this contest between the Golden State Warriors and New Orleans Pelicans. I look for a shootout between these teams given the circumstances tonight.
Golden State will be without its two best defenders in center Andrew Bogut and small forward Andre Iguodala. I fully expect the Pelicans to take advantage and put up a big number offensively in this one.
The Pelicans have been playing in several high-scoring games since getting back stretch big man Ryan Anderson, who is second on the team in scoring (18.8 ppg). They feature six players who are averaging double-digits in points this season and will be a force to be wreckoned with offensively now that Anderson is back.
In fact, the Pelicans are averaging 108.4 points per game and giving up 103.8 points per game in their last five contests overall. They are combining with their opponents for an average of 212.2 points per game during this stretch.
Both teams like to go up-tempo. Golden State ranks 9th in the league in pace at 99.0 possessions per game, while New Orleans is 13th in the league in pace at 97.3 possessions per contest. I look for that pace to be increased even more now that the Warriors are without their top two defenders in Iguodala and Bogut.
New Orleans is 14-3 to the OVER when playing four or less games in 10 days over the past three seasons. The OVER is 5-1 in Warriors last six games when playing on two days' rest. The OVER is 6-0 in Pelicans last six games overall. The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings between these teams in New Orleans. Roll with the OVER in this game Tuesday.
|Brooklyn Nets v. Toronto Raptors UNDER 191
|6 h 11 m
15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Nets/Raptors UNDER 191
The Brooklyn Nets are in a world of hurt right now offensively. They are without two of their best players in Brook Lopez and Deron Williams, which will make points very hard to come by until they return. The Nets are already only averaging 95.4 points per game overall and 93.6 on the road. In their last three games, the Nets are only averaging 89.7 ppg.
Both Toronto and Brooklyn like to play at slow paces. Toronto ranks 25th in the league in pace at 95.2 possessions per game, while Brooklyn is 21st in pace at 96.0 possessions per contest. I look for the Raptors to control the pace in this one playing at home and keep is at a snail's pace.
That has been the case in recent meetings between the Nets and Raptors played in Toronto. They have combined for 180, 182, 165, and 182 points in their last four meetings in Toronto, all of which have gone UNDER the total. That's an average of 177.3 combined points per game, which is roughly 14 points less than tonight's posted total of 191.
The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Toronto. The UNDER is 25-9 in Nets last 34 games vs. a team with a losing record. The UNDER is 24-11 in Raptors last 35 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Brooklyn is 15-2 to the UNDER as a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points over the past three seasons. Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday.
|Oakland +7.5 v. Western Michigan
|7 h 53 m
15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Oakland +7.5
You would be hard-pressed to find a team that has played a more difficult schedule in the early going than Oakland. They opened the season with four straight road games against North Carolina (61-84), UCLA (60-91), California (60-64) and Gonzaga (67-82). They have also played LA-Lafayette (75-84) and St. Francis-NY (62-68) on a neutral court. They have been an underdog in all six contests, and they have opened 0-6.
Due to this 0-6 start, the Grizzlies are way undervalued right now. This is a team that returned four starters from last year and will be improved as the season progresses and the schedule gets easier. Travis Bader (22.1 ppg last year) and Duke Mondy (12.0 ppg, 5.1 apg, 3.0 spg) are back to lead the way. Bader (21.5 ppg) is off to a fast start, while Corey Petros (10.0 ppg, 7.3 rpg), Tommie McCune (9.5 ppg, 4.0 rpg) and Kahlil Fielder (8.7 ppg, 5.2 apg) have all stepped up their games this season.
Western Michigan is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers in this one. It has opened 3-2 this season with its only wins coming against New Mexico State (70-64), Tennessee State (63-52) and Alabama A&M (73-69). It also has losses to North Dakota State (74-83) and Hawaii (68-78). As you can see, the Broncos only have one win on the season by more than 6 points.
This is a Broncos squad that lost three of their top five scorers from a year ago in Darius Paul (10.5 ppg, 5.7 rpg), Nate Hutcheson (10.1 ppg, 4.7 rpg) and Brandon Pokley (8.9 ppg), who averaged nearly 30 points combined between them. Shayne Whittington and David Brown are solid players, but they are being asked to do too much. This team doesn't have near the balance that Oakland offers.
Oakland is 17-6 ATS when playing its 2nd road game in three days since 1997. The Grizzlies are 23-10 ATS in road games when playing with one or less days rest since 1997. The Grizzlies are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The Broncos are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Take Oakland Tuesday.
|Western Michigan +36.5 v. Northern Illinois
|7 h 52 m
15* WMU/NIU MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Western Michigan +36.5
The betting public has been all over Northern Illinois this season, especially over the last several weeks. The betting public wants nothing to do with a 1-10 Western Michigan squad. When oddsmakers realize this, they are forced to set a number higher than it should be to try and get even money on both sides. There
|Stanford v. Houston +11.5
|9 h 26 m
15* CBB Monday GAME OF THE NIGHT on Houston +11.5
The Houston Cougars returned three starters and three of their top four scorers from a team that went 20-13 last season. They are TaShawn Thomas (16.9 ppg, 9.8 rpg), Danuel House (12.4 ppg, 4.9 rpg) and Jherrod Stiggers (8.1 ppg).
All three players have made a significant contribution en route to a perfect 5-0 start this season for the Cougars. House (17.8 ppg, 6.2 rpg), Thomas (16.8 ppg, 11.6 rpg, 4.6 bpg) and Stiggers (10.4 ppg, 3.2 rpg) have all upped their games in 2013. Plus, Baylor transfer L.J. Rose (12.2 ppg, 5.6 apg) has made an imprint as well.
Stanford returned a ton of experience from last season, but that's not necessarily a great thing for a team that went just 19-15 last year and missed the NCAA Tournament. In its only real test this season, Stanford failed, losing 103-112 at home to BYU. While the Cougars haven't really been tested yet, four of their five victories have come by double-digits.
The Cougars are scoring 77.6 points per game and shooting 49.3% from the field, while limiting opponents to 65.0 points and 39.7% shooting. The Cougars are a perfect 7-0 ATS after allowing 30 points or less in the first half of two straight games over the past three seasons. The Cardinal are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games following a S.U. win. Roll with Houston Friday.
|San Francisco 49ers v. Washington Redskins +6
|9 h 14 m
20* 49ers/Redskins ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Washington +6
The Redskins put together a big run at the end of last season by winning their final seven games to capture the NFC East Title. With the division as wide open as ever, they still have to feel like they have a shot with another big finish in 2013. They only trail the Philadelphia Eagles by 2.5 games for first place within the division.
Washington has fallen victim to a pretty tough schedule thus far as six of its first 10 games have been on the road. It is 2-2 at home with its only losses coming to the Eagles and Lions by a combined 13 points. It has played well in its last two home games, beating both Chicago (45-41) and San Diego (30-24). San Francisco
|New Orleans Pelicans +10 v. San Antonio Spurs
|9 h 43 m
15* NBA Western Conference ANNIHILATOR on New Orleans Pelicans +10
The San Antonio Spurs are getting too much respect from the books tonight due to their 12-1 start, which includes a 126-96 home victory over Cleveland last time out. The public perception of this team is as high as it's going to get this season, and now is the time to fade the Spurs because of it.
New Orleans still has a pretty low public perception due to its mediocre 6-6 record on the season. However, it has been playing its best basketball of late, winning three straight coming into this one. A big reason for the Pelicans' resurgence has been the return of stretch big man Ryan Anderson, who is averaging 19.3 points and shooting 61.9% from 3-points range in his past three contests. Now, they will be playing on two days' rest since their 104-100 victory over Cleveland on Friday.
This is a big lookahead spot for San Antonio, which will travel to face Oklahoma City on Wednesday. Overlooking the Pelicans has been nothing new for the Spurs as this has been a very closely-contested series. All four meetings between the Spurs and Pelicans last year were decided by 7 points or less with New Orleans going a perfect 4-0 ATS. They only lost 102-106 and 94-99 in their two trips to San Antonio last season, and they were nowhere near as talented last year as they are in 2013-14.
Plays against home teams (SAN ANTONIO) - horrible foul drawing team - attempting <=21 free throws/game, in November games are 73-27 (73%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Pelicans are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 Monday games. San Antonio is 2-5 ATS in its last seven vs. Western Conference foes. Take the Pelicans Monday.
|Denver Nuggets v. Dallas Mavericks -5.5
|8 h 12 m
20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Dallas Mavericks -5.5
This is a home-and-home situation between the Dallas Mavericks and Denver Nuggets. After losing in Denver 100-102 on Saturday, I fully expect the Mavericks to get their revenge in blowout fashion at home tonight.
Dallas is a perfect 7-0 straight up and 5-2 against the spread at home this season. It is outscoring opponents 111.4 to 102.0 at home this season, or by an average of 9.4 points per game. Denver is 1-4 on the road this year, giving up 104.4 points per contest away from home.
The Nuggets are 24-47 ATS in road games versus explosive offensive teams that are scoring 103 or more points per game since 1996. The Mavericks are 26-10 ATS versus up-tempo teams who average 83 or more shots per game over the past two seasons.
Dallas is 10-1 ATS after allowing 60 or more points in the first half of last game over the past two seasons. The Mavericks are 40-18 ATS in their last 58 games following a loss. The Nuggets are 1-7 ATS in their last eight road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Take the Mavericks Monday.
|Phoenix Suns +12 v. Miami Heat
|7 h 12 m
15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Phoenix Suns +12
The Phoenix Suns are the most underrated team in the entire league. This is just another prime example of that as the Suns are catching double-digits against the Miami Heat, who are notorious for playing to the level of their competition. I have no doubt Miami will take Phoenix too lightly tonight, just as about every other team in the league has this season.
Phoenix is 7-6 this season and has been competitive in almost all of its losses. In fact, all six of its losses have come by 7 points or less, including four by 3 points or fewer. That includes impressive road losses at Oklahoma City (96-103), San Antonio (96-99) and Portland (89-90), which are three of the best teams in the league.
Jeff Hornacek is doing a tremendous job of getting Phoenix to play together as a team. These guys absolutely love playing together, because they share the basketball so well. Miami is overvalued due to its six-game winning streak coming in, which includes an unimpressive 101-99 home victory over Orlando last time out.
Hornacek is a perfect 9-0 ATS as an underdog as the coach of Phoenix. Eric Spoelstra is 30-47 ATS as a favorite over 10 or more points as the coach of Miami. The Suns are 7-0 ATS in their last seven road games. The Heat are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Roll with the Suns Monday.
|Minnesota Timberwolves +7 v. Indiana Pacers
|7 h 20 m
15* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Minnesota Timberwolves +7
The Indiana Pacers are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers right now due to their 12-1 start. There's no question this is one of the best teams in the league, but the Pacers have benefited from an easy schedule more than anything.
Indeed, only two of Indiana's 12 wins have come against teams with winning records. Those were against Chicago (6-5) and Memphis (6-5), who are both down from last season.
Minnesota is 8-7 this season against a brutal schedule. Only two of its seven losses have come against teams with losing records, and those were against Cleveland (92-93) and Washington (100-104) by a combined 5 points. The Timberwolves have only lost two games all season by more than 4 points.
Plays against home favorites (INDIANA) - top caliber team - outscoring their opponents by 9+ points/game against opponent after allowing 105 points or more are 30-4 (88.2%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Timberwolves are 28-11 ATS in their last 39 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. Bet Minnesota Monday.
|Massachusetts v. Clemson
|16 h 52 m
20* UMass/Clemson ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Clemson PK
The Clemson Tigers came into the 2013-14 season way undervalued after going just 13-18 in head coach Brad Brownell's first season last year. The Tigers had to transition from Oliver Purnell's up-tempo style to Brownell's motion offense, and there was no question it was going to take some time.
Well, Clemson appears to be hitting on all cylinders to open the season this year. It has started 5-0 with five straight blowout victories over Stetson (71-51), Delaware State (58-37) South Carolina (71-57) Temple (72-58) and Davidson (85-64). The Tigers returned five of their top seven scorers from last season, and all five have made significant contributions in the early going.
K.J. McDaniels, the top returning scorer, has averaged 18.8 points, 6.2 rebounds and 4.0 blocks per game to lead the charge. Rod Hall (10.8 ppg, 3.8 apg), Jordan Roper (10.4 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 3.6 apg), Demarcus Harrison (9.8 ppg) and Adonis Filer (4.8 ppg) have all upped their games this season from last year. Jaron Blossomgame (5.4 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 1.6 bpg) has made a solid contribution thus far as well.
There's no question that UMass is improved from last season as well with four starters back. Like Clemson, it has opened 5-0 this season as well. Unlike Clemson, it has had to sweat out a few games, while the Tigers have won every game this season by 14 points or more. The Minutemen survived scares against LSU (92-90) at home, and Nebraska (96-90) on a neutral court.
With free throws being more important this season due to increased foul calls, it's certainly worth pointing out that the Tigers have been cashing in their free throws at a deadly rate this season. They are making a ridiculous 80.4% of their free throws thus far. That could come in handy if this game is close down the stretch, though I don't expect it will be.
I'm going to side with the better defensive team in this one. Clemson is giving up just 51.4 points per game on 33.9% shooting. It is playing great defense without fouling, putting opponents on the line an average of only 16 times per game. UMass is allowing 77.4 points per game on 41.4% shooting. It is putting opponents on the line an average of 22 times per contest.
This will essentially be a home game for Clemson as it will be played inside TD Bank Arena in Charleston, South Carolina. UMass is 0-8 ATS in its last eight neutral court games with a line of +3 to PK. Clemson is 7-0 ATS in road games after a non-conference game over the past two seasons. The Tigers are 6-0 ATS in road games in November games over the past two seasons. Clemson is 4-0 ATS in its last four non-conference games. These four trends combine for a perfect 25-0 system backing the Tigers. Bet Clemson Sunday.
|Indianapolis Colts v. Arizona Cardinals -3
|36 h 44 m
15* Colts/Cardinals Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Arizona -3
The Arizona Cardinals are one of the most underrated teams in the league. They continue to get no respect from oddsmakers this week as only a 3-point favorite over the Indianapolis Colts, who are one of the most overrated teams in the league. I'll take advantage and back Arizona at home as it rolls to a blowout victory over the Colts.
The Cardinals come in playing their best football of the season. They have won three straight overall with home victories over the Falcons (27-13) and Texans (27-24), along with a road victory over the Jaguars (27-14). Carson Palmer threw for over 400 yards last week and appears to be hitting his stride as the offense tries to keep up with the excellent play of the defense.
Arizona is giving up just 21.2 points and 324.9 yards per game to rank 9th in the league in total defense. This stop unit has really dug its teeth in during their 3-game winning streak. The Cardinals have held their last three opponents to 45.0 yards per game on the ground and 267.0 yards per game overall.
It's easy to see that Indianapolis is nowhere near as good as its record would indicate. It ranks 13th in the league in total offense at 349.9 yards per game, and 24th in total defense at 365.0 yards per game. As you can see, it is getting outgained by 15.1 yards per game. That is a number more indicative of a team that would be 4-6 right now rather than 7-3. However, the Colts have simply been fortunate in close games for a second straight year.
After going 9-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less last season, the Colts have gone 5-1 in such games this season. The good news is that I don't believe this game will be close at all as the Cardinals win going away. That being said, there's no question that these records in close games come close to evening out over time, and the Colts aren't going to continue being this fortunate for long. That's especially the case now that they are without leading receiver Reggie Wayne for the rest of the season, and the offense hasn't been nearly as effective without him.
Arizona is 4-1 at home this season. The Cardinals are 24-9 ATS in their last 33 home games vs. good passing teams that average 235 or more yards per game. Arizona is 40-23 ATS in its last 63 games versus poor defensive teams that allow 5.65 or more yards per play. The Cardinals are 6-0 ATS versus poor defensive teams that allow 5.65 or more yards per play in the second half of the season over the past three seasons. Bet the Cardinals Sunday.
|Chicago Bulls v. Los Angeles Clippers UNDER 194.5
|11 h 42 m
15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Bulls/Clippers UNDER 194.5
The Chicago Bulls are in a world of hurt right now offensively. They are without two of their top four scorers in Derrick Rose (15.9 ppg) and Jimmy Butler (11.2 ppg). Rose tore his meniscus, while Butler is out for at least another couple weeks with a toe injury. The offense is going to really struggle for a while without these two.
Los Angeles is a very tired team right now. The Clippers will be playing the dreaded 4 games in 5 days situation Sunday, and they'll really be tired considering this is an afternoon game. That fatigue will hurt them more on offense than it will on defense. Los Angeles will not be looking to push the tempo because it will be too tired to do so. This will be a half-court game and I expect both teams to struggle shooting the basketball today.
Chicago's strength is its defense, which is giving up just 90.5 points per game on 40.4% shooting this season. The Bulls rank 3rd in the league in defensive efficiency, allowing just 93.6 points per 100 possessions. The Bulls already played at a slow pace, ranking 19th in the league with 96.6 possessions per game. That pace will certainly get slower in their first game without Rose this season. He's basically the only one on their team capable of running the fast break, which was already a rare occurrence for the Bulls.
These teams played twice last season in low-scoring affairs, both of which came without Rose as well. Los Angeles beat Chicago 101-80 at home on November 17, 2012 for 181 combined points. The Clippers also won on the road on December 11, 2012 by a final of 94-89 for 183 combined points. I look for a similar low-scoring affair this time around as well as these teams don't combine to sniff 190 points, let alone 194.5.
Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (LA CLIPPERS) - explosive offensive team - scoring 103+ points/game on the season, on Sunday games are 44-19 (69.8%) over the last five seasons. Chicago is 9-1 to the UNDER versus teams who average 9 or more steals per game over the past two seasons. The UNDER is 7-3 in Clippers last 10 games playing on 0 days rest. Take the UNDER in this game Sunday.
|San Diego Chargers +5 v. Kansas City Chiefs
|33 h 40 m
20* AFC West GAME OF THE MONTH on San Diego Chargers +5
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers +9.5 v. Detroit Lions
|33 h 39 m
15* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Tampa Bay Buccaneers +9.5
The Buccaneers have showed a ton of pride over the past couple of weeks by beating Miami (22-19) and Atlanta (41-28) at home. They have shown that they are not going to pack it in, and would love nothing more than to play the role of spoiler going forward. There
|Carolina Panthers v. Miami Dolphins +5
|33 h 39 m
20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Miami Dolphins +5
The Miami Dolphins (5-5) are still very much alive for the 6th and final playoff spot in the AFC. They beat San Diego 20-16 at home last week to keep themselves in a good position with only six games to go. I look for them to not only cover against Carolina Sunday at home, but to likely win this game outright as well.
Carolina is in a massive letdown spot. It is coming off two nail-biting wins over the 49ers (10-9) and Patriots (24-20). The Panthers are feeling very good about themselves after those two wins against quality teams, but their about to be knocked off their pedestals against a motivated Miami squad. Plus, that game against New England was on Monday Night Football last week, so the Panthers will be working on one less day of rest than the Dolphins.
Miami has played in so many close games this season, and that fact alone shows that there is some value here with the Dolphins as a home underdog. Three of their five losses have come by 3 points or less, while four of their five wins have come by 4 points or fewer. That means that seven of their 10 games thus far have been decided by 4 points or less.
The Dolphins are a perfect 6-0 against the spread in home games after having lost four or five of their last six games over the past three seasons. They are winning in this spot 24.2 to 11.0, or by an average of 13.2 points per game. This has clearly been a resilient bunch over the past three seasons when times have been tough, especially when playing at home. Miami is 7-2 ATS in its last nine home games overall, and 13-6 ATS in its last 19 vs. a team with a winning record. Roll with the Dolphins Sunday.
|Chicago Bears v. St. Louis Rams -1
|33 h 39 m
15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on St. Louis Rams -1
The St. Louis Rams are a gritty team that will not give an inch under Jeff Fisher. They are coming off their most impressive win of the season, a 38-8 victory at Indianapolis to get back to 4-6 on the season. This team still believes there is a shot to make the playoffs with a big finish, and they won't give in until they are eliminated. Now, the Rams have had two full weeks to prepare for Chicago as they are coming off their bye week.
This is a team that has been playing well for a while now, going 3-3 in their last six games overall. Even in their three losses they played solid football. The Rams actually outgained the Panthers 317-282 in a 15-30 road loss. They outgained the Seahawks 339-135 in a 9-14 home loss in a game they obviously should have won. They were even in yards against the Titans 363-363 in a 21-28 home loss as well.
St. Louis has stayed relatively healthy outside of quarterback Sam Bradford, but backup Kellen Clemens has played very well in his place. Defensively, the Rams are very healthy. Chicago is also on to its backup quarterback in Josh McCown, which hasn't been much of a step down from starter Jay Cutler, either. However, the Bears have been ravaged by injuries defensively. Starters Lance Briggs (shoulder), Charles Tillman (triceps), Henry Melton (knee) and D.J. Williams (chest) are all out. Stephen Paea (toe) is doubtful as well.
The interior of Chicago's defense has been extremely vulnerable due to these injuries. Indeed, the Bears have given up an average 174, 145, 199, and 209 rushing yards in their last four games, respectively. They rank 31st in the league against the run, giving up 133.9 yards per game, and have allowed a 100-yard rusher in three straight and four of five.
St. Louis running back Zac Stacy will be in line for a big day on the ground. The Rams have rushed for 140, 160 and 200 yards in their last three games, respectively, with Stacy doing most of the work over that stretch. Stacy has rushed for 323 yards and three touchdowns in his last three games overall. I look for St. Louis to control the game with its rushing attack, while its underrated defense keeps McCown and company in check.
Plays on favorites (ST LOUIS) - after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 40-13 (75.5%) ATS since 1983. The Rams are 6-0 ATS versus good offensive teams - averaging >=5.65 yards/play in the second half of the season over the last two seasons. The Bears are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games overall. Chicago is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games following a win. St. Louis is 7-0-1 ATS in its last eight home games vs. a team with a .500 road record or better. Roll with the Rams Sunday.
|Missouri v. Ole Miss +3
|27 h 12 m
20* Missouri/Ole Miss ESPN Saturday No-Brainer on Ole Miss +3
Ole Miss is still one of the best teams in the country despite suffering three losses this season. Two of those losses have come on the road against Alabama and Auburn, which are arguably the two best teams in the SEC. The other came at home against Texas A&M by a field goal, which is probably the third-best team in the conference. The Rebels proved they could beat an SEC power by knocking off LSU 27-24, which was the start of a four-game winning streak heading into this one.
|Orlando Magic +13.5 v. Miami Heat
|17 h 13 m
15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Orlando Magic +13.5
This is a home-and-home situation for the Miami Heat and Orlando Magic. Miami won the first meeting in Orlando on November 20 by a final of 120-92. Now, they'll have a rematch Saturday night just three days later after each team has had the past two days off.
It's usually a good idea to back the team that lost the first game of a home-and-home situation. That's because the team that lost the first game is obviously motivated for revenge, while the team that one can easily become disinterested after already beating their opponent a few nights earlier.
I believe this is certainly one of those good situations to back the Game 1 loser. Miami is coming off back-to-back championships, and it already has a hard time being motivated during the regular season. There's no way the Heat even show up for this game Saturday, and that's why Orlando will easily be able to stay within this inflated number with a chance to win it in the end.
It's obvious that there is value here with the Magic. They were a 7-point home underdog in their first meeting with the Heat on November 20. Now, they are catching 13.5 points in the rematch. Home-court advantage has meant little when these teams have gotten together in the recent past. The road team is 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings.
Another reason this line has been inflated is the fact that the Magic have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six games overall. Meanwhile, the Heat have covered the spread in in three straight coming in. These two trends have forced oddsmakers to set the number much higher than it should be.
Plays against home favorites (MIAMI) - top caliber team - outscoring their opponents by 9+ points/game against opponent after allowing 105 points or more are 28-4 (87.5%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Heat are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS win. Miami is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. Bet the Magic Saturday.
|Vanderbilt v. Tennessee -2.5
|41 h 11 m
25* SEC GAME OF THE YEAR on Tennessee -2.5
The Volunteers come in on two weeks of rest having last played on November 9 and in need of a victory. They have to win their final two games against Vanderbilt and Kentucky to become bowl eligible, and it
|California +32 v. Stanford
|23 h 26 m
20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on California +32
The betting public wants nothing to do with 1-10 California. As a result, I believe this line is way out of whack and inflated. This is the final game of the season for the Golden Bears, and their last chance to redeem themselves. I fully expect them to put their best foot forward Saturday because of it.
Stanford is going to be in a terrible state of mind coming into this one. It just lost at USC last week after a big win over Oregon in its previous game. That loss to the Trojans likely cost Stanford the Pac-12 Title, and they know it. I look for the Cardinal to suffer a bit of a hangover effect because of it.
The Cardinal are not an explosive offensive team. It's going to take a lot of points for them to cover this big number, and I just don't believe they have it in them. Stanford is only scoring 30.4 points and averaging 384.2 yards per game to rank 84th in the country in total offense. They are a running team who does not up the tempo offensively, which favors getting big points when going against them.
California has only beaten beaten by more than 32 points twice this season. One was a 16-55 loss to Oregon, which is a team with an explosive offense that can cover these big spreads consistently. The other was a 28-62 loss to USC. That game was much closer than the final score would indicate as the Trojans scored three special teams touchdowns. Take those away, and it's a 41-28 game.
Stanford only has one win by more than 21 points this season. That was a 55-17 win over Washington State. This isn't a team known for blowing out the opposition simply because of the style of football it plays. In fact, the Cardinal have only scored more than 34 points twice all season.
Cal has found a running game in recent weeks to compliment its dynamic passing attack. The Bears rushed for 195 yards on USC, and 197 yards on Colorado. They rank 11th in the country in passing offense at 333.4 yards per game. Stanford's biggest weakness is a pass defense that ranks 96th in the country at 253.9 yards per game. Opposing quarterbacks are completing 63.7% of their passes against Stanford.
Plays on road underdogs (CALIFORNIA) - average rushing team (3.5 to 4.3 YPR) against a good rushing defense (3 to 3.5 YPR) after 7+ games, in conference games are 31-7 (81.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. Stanford is 6-20 against the spread in its last 26 games off an upset loss as a favorite. Bet California Saturday.