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Forums, Share Your Story › Forums › Relationship Forums › Infidelity Forum › Unfaithful while Boyfriend was in Prison
- AuthorPosts
- Leanne MoffittGuestApril 17, 2018 at 7:36 amPost count: 27383
The father of my children and I got together in 2008. It wasn't under the best circumstances, but we did it!
He was in prison, but we were friends before he ever got in trouble.
I had a daughter with someone else, and I asked him to be her Godfather. He's a fantastic man, fun-loving, and kind-hearted. He is a Scorpio, so he can be a bit difficult at times, and I'm a Leo.
While he was in prison, I cheated with my daughter's dad. When he got out and came home, we worked through it. I got pregnant with our son, and life was perfect!
He came home in 2011, and we had our son in 2012.
At the end of 2014, he got close with his ex-best friend's ex-wife, and at the beginning of 15, they started sleeping together. He'd leave at night wouldn't come home, or he'd come home from work, shower, and leave until 4 or 5 am. He told me he hated me and didn't love me anymore. I felt bad. I cried, begged, and pleaded for a year.
In Aug of 2015, my grandmother, who raised me, passed away. Very fast, he was there for me through the toughest part of my life, but he still was with this girl.
During my grandmother's passing, I met a guy my cousin knew. She told him everything that was going on between my guy who had been in prison and stupid me didn't realize it! So in October of 2015, kids and I moved back home and in November.
I was kicked out and had nowhere to go and went to his house. I messed up! I cut things off with this guy; it wasn't right.
I'd cry in the shower. I was disgusted with myself. In December of 2015, I found out I was pregnant; it could have only been the father of my children because we never used protection. He didn't want me to have the baby.
In January of 2016, I went to another state with my dad for two weeks and my kid's. Dad wanted to work things out. I came home, and that same weekend the guy I cheated with found him and told him everything. He even sent him pictures.
Since then, it's been one huge up and down roller coaster. He's been there for our baby he ended up moving out of town and recently moved our kids and me up to our own house near him.
The same girl he had been sleeping with got pregnant and had there son in Oct of 2016. I've been there. I never turned my back. I know he's hurt. I hurt every time I hold there son or change his diaper. I love him more than life, but it hurts. He doesn't understand that.
He forces himself to believe I don't care about him, and I used him, and I'm just a horrible person. Now and he will never look at me the same.
I want my family back together. I know he loves me and cares; there's no question about that. We only argue when the other girl comes around because I feel like he knows he's settling with her, and that's not what he wants, but he's scared I'm going to hurt him again.
How do I show him I do care and I do love him, and I have no dealings with the other guy or anyone else?
To Read the Original Story Please Click Here - Infidelity Forum
- AuthorPosts


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Ines Di Santo 'Madrid'
Ines Di Santo/
Price: $7,000
Retail Price: $11,500
You Save: 39%
Resell It & Make Up To: $4,200 Learn More
Found the one? Skip the return and use code FINALSALE at checkout for an extra 10% off. Final sale items will be inspected for authenticity but cannot be returned.
Ines Di Santo 'Madrid' Wedding Dress Details
This is your dress if you are going for a classy sexy look. Romantic Chantilly Lace sheath with illusion sleeves finished with lace cuff. Gown originally featured a dramatic sheer illusion bodice, but I had added lace to the sides so it was not as sheer, but the look remains the same. Gown also features a scalloped plunging V neckline and delicate illusion at shoulders. But line adorned with Gulpure Lace appliques and finished with extended chapel length train. I also added a lining for the bottom of the dress so my legs were not as easily visible walking down the aisle. Since Ines Di Santo's size chart runs EXTREMELY small, technically, my gown was a size 10. We had to take in the bust but the waist was good. The dress was only worn on my wedding night and was immediately cleaned and treated to be almost as good as brand new.
- Condition: preowned
- Profesionally Cleaned: yes
- Alterations: yes
- US Street Size: 02
- Dress Tag Size: 10
- Bust: 33
- Waist: 27
- Hips: 37
- Tallest Wearable Height: 5' 9"
- Fabric: chantilly lace
- Silhouette: fit to flare
- Neckline: v neck
- Features: sleeves
- Dress Length: full
Once you have placed your order the Seller will be notified. Nearly Newlywed will then check that the dress is authentic and matches to the seller's description. The item will then be shipped to you upon approval. Please allow up to three weeks for delivery.
This item is returnable as priced, less a $50 return fee. If using the code 'FinalSale' for an additional 10% off, it will not be eligible for return. For more details on our returns policies please visit our FAQ.
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subset: commoncrawl


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With only 8 days until Dec. 25th I wanted to wish everyone a very Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year! Wishing you all good things in 2010! Many thanks to all my blog friends and wonderful customers for making 2009 another great year!
Thursday, December 17, 2009
2 comments:
- Tamara Jansen said...
How were your Christmas sales this year? We had to put Santa on the road out front to get people to stop by :( But we are close to empty now.
- December 21, 2009 at 10:28 AM
- Island Mavins Vintage Market said...
Hi Tamara, actually it's been really good, sales are up and I too am out of most of my holiday decorations. I won't reorder at this point but am already planning for next year! Ü
- December 21, 2009 at 7:44 PM
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Hello Bonjour....
Well this is my first attempt at blogging! It's been quite a year and a half for me. I retired from the Federal Government after 34 years and in October 2006, I started a new retail store called "French Vanilla Home and Garden". In July 2007 I launched my store's e-commerce website and now this....blogging! Who would have thought! Has it been challenging?....a bit, stressful?.... some days, rewarding?....most definitely! I love owning my own retail store, filling it with things I love and helping my customers find that perfect item or gift! I am enjoying this new phase of my life and look forward to learning new things, having new adventures and making new friends along the way!
(established July/2008)
(established July/2008)


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WASHINGTON: Gangrene begins to set in when the tissue no longer has a blood supply. The flesh then becomes much like a dead animal lying in the sun. It rots. It dies, and unless amputated, the rot will spread to the entire body. Death, ironically due to blood poisoning, then occurs.
A real-world comparison for the putrification of gangrene is the public and the society and government they choose.
Freedom is a societies blood supply. The more it is unhampered, the healthier and happier it is — however, cut-off the blood flow, and ultimately infection sets. The infection is Democrat era progressive solutions leading to the Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez gangrene deal.
The New Deal circa 1933
President Franklin Roosevelt (1933-1939), a Democrat, can be considered the first Socialist President, though Theodore Roosevelt (1901-1909) is reviled as the father of progressive politics. Both Roosevelt's morphing the Founding Father's democrat nation into a semi-socialist one.
Franklin Roosevelt ushered in The New Deal within the first three months of his Depression-era (1929-1939) presidency.
The New Deal was first to alleviate the suffering of the nation's massive number of unemployed workers. Agencies like the Works Progress Administration (WPA) and the Civilian Conservation Corps (CCC) were established to dispense emergency and short-term governmental aid and to provide temporary jobs, employment on construction projects, and youth work in the national forests.
The National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) was enacted to support the Wagner Act of 1935. The Wagner Act expanded the authority of the federal government. The legislation was passed to aid the "forgotten" homeowner, refinance shaky mortgages and guarantee bank loans for both modernization and mortgage payments.
Perhaps the most far-reaching programs of the entire New Deal were the Social Security measures enacted in 1935 and 1939. The now-beleaguered program's purpose was to provide old-age and widows' benefits, unemployment compensation, and disability insurance.
Socialism at work
Venezuela, after its 1945-1948 attempt at a democratic society with a mix of dictators with an assortment of government-of-the-moment politics.
In 1999 Hugo Chavez rode in to save the country with socialism via his Bolivarian Missions.
Compare the failed state of Venezuela with the free state of Switzerland, a republic that is one of the most prosperous countries in the world.
Free republics survive and live because they have qualified voters exercising their franchise. The progressive socialist Democrats are selling will not easily die. However, it will kill. As Democrat regulations cut off the blood supply, there will only be a choice only between amputation and death.
The Democrat plan to destroy America's Greatness begins with the Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 2019 Gangrene New Deal.
Following are a few of the more poignant elements of the just-released House Resolution so-called Green New Deal:
1. Transition to 100% recyclable energy uses only.
2. Provide income and benefits for everyone whether they want to work or not.
3. Allow unlimited immigration by anyone at any time. Just moving here makes you eligible for guaranteed income and benefits.
4. Retrofit all buildings in the U.S. to meet government environmental standards.
5. Eliminate all airplane travel.
6. Ban all beef products.
It is important to note that like Al Gore with his ginormous energy footprint, these regulations will apply to you, and me. As we see in states where dictators and oligarchs rule, they will retain their homes, cars, airplanes, and lifestyles. You, however, will be on an all gangrene diet. Hamburgers and steak will be outlawed.
So who pays for socialism?
You, I and all the taxpayers. Despite that, if everyone who paid taxes paid 100% tax, these programs could not be funded.
Not to mention how long will the body of taxpayers gradually attacked by social programs over the past century continue to work?
The Green New Deal is more than a wound of socialism. It is the result of the gradual shortening of the blood supply. It will kill.
Unfortunately, the only answer is amputation. By cutting Washington way from the body return to local governments where people understand reality.
This fool's errand of the child-like Casio Cortez isn't a wonderful life for all. It is death


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Yoga for scuba diving;
(tao te ching)
Yoga is;
-a broad and vast medium covering all the aspects of our being. It contains physical poses; "asana", breath exercises; "pranayama", concentration and relaxation techniques and much more. These practices will lead slowly and steadily to a more balanced mind, feeling centered and to be in a state of equanimity.
Yoga can be a way of living, or just a 20 minutes a day of physical practice with breath awareness. Both will give you a feeling of well-being. We can apply yoga techniques in various ways on our every day life to create harmony and well-being.It is integrated easily into your diving, and it will definitely benefit your experience. The connection between yoga and scuba diving is a two-way-street. Scuba diving is helpful for your yoga practice, and yoga certainly enhances in various ways your diving experience.
Yoga and scuba-diving is;
-the connection with the breath underwater. Any asana done without breath-awareness is not yoga, and everything you do with breath-awareness is yoga. Under the surface you are completely aware of this breath awareness and with that the subtly effects on your buoyancy, your concentration and state of mind. When you move effortlessly with concentration, a breath deep and calm, your air-supply will take you for a longer period of time under water. The sound of the breath under the surface, will have a calming and meditative effect, similar to the sound the yogi practices on its mat, called 'ujjayi breathing'.
Increasing your physical fitness is one way to get more out of every breath, but even fit divers can find themselves breathing too fast or too shallow from the stress of diving. Like scuba-diving, yoga places emphasis on proper inhalation and exhalation, as breathing is considered the essential connection between body and mind. Practiced regularly, yoga promotes deep, slow breathing, and teaches you how to calm your mind. Yoga also strengthens and stretches muscles that are important in diving. This all adds up to more quality time floating in the under water universe.
Divers with a regular yoga practice often have more air left in their tank when they reach surface. The body is not sore or tired, the mind is calm, and swimming is comfortably and easily. Yoga teaches you to control your breathing while your body is working, so you can calmly and efficiently deliver more oxygen to your muscles and brain.
Your impulse to breathe is triggered more by a buildup of carbon dioxide than by low oxygen, so by learning to exhale fully, you clear more carbon dioxide and automatically breathe more slowly. Slower breathing also improves your concentration and focus. Circumstances can turn so suddenly in the water. Yoga teaches you how to center yourself in different situations.
Yoga uses a technique called ujjayi (OO-jeye) breathing, which translates into "expand successfully"–precisely what you're training your respiratory system to do. When doing ujjayi breathing, you pull slow, steady breaths, fully filling and emptying your lungs, and increasing the live-force and oxygen in your system.
The deep breathing exercises used in yoga help keep blood gases normal and are very beneficial as a relaxing technique. The breathing techniques you learn in yoga affect your breathing behavior in other activities and give you a tool to fall back on in physically or mentally challenging situations.
Another benefit of yoga is that the physical poses (asana) strengthen and lengthen your muscles and connective tissues, leaving you in better shape for virtually any physical activity–including scuba.The asana open your chest cavity and promote strength and mobility in your back, hamstrings, quadriceps and calves. It will facilitate easiness of breath, and movement throughout the body. With a regular yoga practice you will develop a better and detailed body-breath-mind awareness, which will give you more control over your body-mind in any situation under any condition.
Diving is exploring an environment with different rules of gravity, being in unfamiliar circumstances, using your body and breath in different ways. This can create a heightened awareness and can develop new insights for your yoga practice. And for everyone who has been under the surface, the peacefulness and wonderment of the under-water universe is a meditation on its self.
The yoga for diving classes have;
-a strong focus on the breath and is suitable for all levels and first timers. We like every participant to keep a "beginners-mind", being more receptive and aware to what is happening within the body-mind. Developing a witness perspective. Of course the benefits are not developed over a couple of classes, and establishing a short efficient self-practice is the aim. The class will be structured with a basic warming up, asana for lengthening and stretching muscles and connective tissues, breath exercises, and concentration techniques. Which you could apply prior to any dive you will do or making it part of your daily life.
The yoga we teach is hatha yoga; which is the foundation of most contemporary yoga varieties around the world. It has its roots in the ancient yogi texts; yoga sutras. Hatha yoga has as meaning to unite the solar and lunar forces of the body, mind and universe.
The yoga classes will take place at a gorgeous little Balinese open house; "bale yoga", at the Gedong Gandhi Ashram, Candidasa. A coconut grove merged between the ocean, the hills and a flourishing lotus pond at East-Bali. An open air space which is neither too warm or too cold, and direct sea-view, which will make you silent. Yoga mats are provided, and various yoga props are available if needed.
(for more information email to email@example.com)
Karma yoga is;
-part of yoga, and part of the Gedong Gandhi Ashram philosophy. Living a righteous life, in service for humanity. Your participation in the "yoga for diving class" will help ashram members and also other Balinese youngsters in need of educational assistance. The Gandhian ashram incorporates an educational fund, Gedong Gandhi Ashram Educational Fund, GGAEF. Any young person in need can apply for educational assistance at any level when their eligibility will be assessed by the ashram's advisers. The ashram founded in the late 70ties is based on Gandhian principles of self-sufficiency, independence, non-violence and supporting the local community.
All things end in the Tao
as rivers flow into the sea.


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Close penalty point loophole for learner drivers, say road safety charity
News from Brake
Wednesday 7th August 2019
Wednesday 7th August 2019
Road safety campaigners, Brake, are calling for a reduction in the number of penalty points a learner driver can hold before being disqualified, as an investigation has found more than 42,000 provisional licence holders on the roads with six or more penalty points.
The data, obtained by Brake under a Freedom of Information request to the DVLA, revealed that, as of April 2019, 66,575 learner drivers held endorsements on their licence. Of these, 42,883 held six or more points, 1,005 held 12 or more points and the highest number of points held by one learner driver was 35.
Under the New Drivers Act, drivers who get six or more penalty points within two years of passing their test have their licence revoked. If they wish to drive again, they are required to apply and pay for a new provisional licence and pass both theory and practical parts of the driving or riding test. Rules for provisional licence holders, however, allow them to hold up to 11 active points on their licence while receiving no penalty, permitting them to take a driving test, obtain a full licence and drive freely on the roads. Once they have passed their test, they would only have their licence revoked if they receive further penalty points.
Statistics from the UK's Department for Transport show that a learner or inexperienced driver/rider was a contributory factor to the incident in 3% of deaths and 5% of serious injuries on the roads, in 2017. [1]
Road safety charity, Brake, are calling for learner drivers who get six or more points to have to reapply for their licence, and have urged the Government to consult on the viability of imposing bans.
Commenting, Joshua Harris, director of campaigns for Brake, said:
"How can it be right that learner drivers with a track record of committing multiple driving offences are still free to obtain a full licence and drive on our roads? Newly qualified drivers face losing their licence if they commit multiple driving offences so surely at least the same standards should apply to learner drivers too? We are calling on the Government to look into this with a view to reduce the number of penalty points a learner driver can get before losing their licence and prevent them from taking a driving test with multiple points on their provisional licence."
Notes to editors:
[1] RAS50007: Contributory factors: Casualties in reported accidents by severity, Great Britain, DfT, 2018
About Brake
Brake is a national road safety and sustainable transport charity, founded in 1995, that exists to stop the needless deaths and serious injuries that happen on roads every day, make streets and communities safer for everyone, and care for families bereaved and injured in road crashes. Brake promotes road safety awareness, safe and sustainable road use, and effective road safety policies.
We do this through national campaigns, community education, services for road safety professionals and employers, and by coordinating the UK's flagship road safety event every November, Road Safety Week. Brake is a national, government-funded provider of support to families and individuals devastated by road death and serious injury, including through a helpline and support packs.
Road crashes are not accidents; they are devastating and preventable events, not chance mishaps. Calling them accidents undermines work to make roads safer, and can cause insult to families whose lives have been torn apart by needless casualties.
Tags: young drivers penalty


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DermaMed Balm Sample Pack
Not sure about which balm to pick, or just want to see whether it will work for you? Try our balm sample pack which includes all eight of our therapeutic balms with free shipping* within Canada or the US!
8 x 3ml Sample Pouches:
- Acne Prone Skin Gel - For acne pimples
- All Purpose Balm - For eczema and itchy or irritated skin
- Formula A Foot Balm - For itchy feet and fungal infections
- Formula H Balm - For external hemorrhoids
- Mobility Balm - For arthritis and sore joints or muscles
- Rescue Balm - For psoriasis or flaky skin
- Rosaderm Balm - For rosacea and facial redness
- Tension Balm - For headaches, migraines, and sinus congestion
*Please note that we will ship to the BILLING address. If you would like us to ship to a different address, please email the shipping address to firstname.lastname@example.com with your order number as the subject within 2 hours of placing your sample packet order.
Limit one per customer per six-month period.


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MT. WASHINGTON SKI BUS | Victoria North
The Ski Bus will run daily from December 6th to January 5th (no service December 25th). From January 10th to February 2nd, the Ski bus will run Friday to Sunday only. February 14th to 23rd we will be on a daily schedule and return to Friday to Sunday from February 28th – April 5th.
Please Note: The Final Day of Service for the Mount Washington Ski Bus 2019/2020 Season will be in April 2020.
Skip The Drive
MT. WASHINGTON SHUTTLE | Comox Valley
Mount Washington Alpine Resort has a Ski & Ride Shuttle Bus available December-April to everyone travelling to and from the Comox Valley to Mount Washington on a daily basis during the winter ski season. Pickup and drop off locations are located throughout the Comox Valley, and no advance reservations are required. Fare for the Mount Washington bus to and from the Comox Valley is $20 for a round trip.
Mount Washington Alpine Resort also has a selection of Ski & Ride Bus providers that service the entire Vancouver Island, please visit their websites for a complete range of services and rates.


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View the latest family planning advocacy news from our partners.
Two major corporations in India are prioritizing family planning investment in their social action policies— a result of sustained advocacy by Advance Family Planning local partner Pathfinder International India.
Advance Family Planning (AFP) is expanding its initiative to include PATH, an international, nonprofit global health organization based in Seattle. PATH will support AFP to develop and implement "training of facilitators" workshops for its partners and help track diffusion and uptake of AFP's SMART advocacy approach.
On July 11th, the Spark Minda Foundation joined 15 other private sector partners in making Family Planning 2020 commitments at the 2017 London Summit. Spark Minda, a leading manufacturer of automobile components in India, allocated 1.1 million Indian rupees (US $17,190) per year until 2020 to sensitize 3,000 women and men in the rural areas of Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Uttarakhand, and Uttar Pradesh states about family planning, reproductive health, and menstrual hygiene by 2020.
In July, the government of Bhilwara district in Rajasthan formally acknowledged Advance Family Planning local partner Pathfinder International India for their contribution towards improving family planning services in the area. Their advocacy led to Bhilwara becoming the first district in Rajasthan state to launch injectable contraceptives in the public health system.
On July 1, 2017, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) announced that the government allocated US $2.5 million dollars for the purchase of contraceptives in fiscal year 2017. The allocation ensures the implementation of the National Strategic Plan for Family Planning (2014-2020), which aims to increase the 2013 modern contraceptive prevalence rate of 6.5% to 19% by 2020.
In May 2017, Kenya's Machakos county approved a first-time budget allocation of 20 million Kenyan Shillings (US $200,000) for family planning in the 2017/2018 fiscal year[i]. This significant investment accomplishes one of the five objectives laid out in Machakos's family planning costed implementation plan, launched in March.
Jindal Stainless Ltd., one of the largest stainless steel conglomerates in India, recently added a family planning intervention to their corporate social responsibility program. Jindal Stainless Foundation invested 819,500 Indian rupees (US $12,800) for a project aiming to reach 1,000 beneficiaries with better family planning information and counseling services.
Advance Family Planning (AFP) held a diffusion workshop on June 19-23rd in Uttarakhand, India—the first in a series to be held in different regions where AFP works. The five-day workshop aimed to build facilitation skills in applying AFP's SMART (Specific, Measurable, Attainable, Relevant and Time-bound) advocacy approach as well as provide participants with the opportunity to develop a SMART advocacy objective to implement.
In June 2017, Indonesia's provincial government of West Kalimantan allocated IDR 470 million (US $35,300) of its own funds to scale up 14 family planning advocacy district working groups in 2018—12 of which are newly formed. This win for sustainable, locally-funded advocacy builds on years of efforts to improve information and services for couples in West Kalimantan.
In a sign of Burkina Faso's dedication to family planning, the Minister of Health appointed Anne Thieba, wife of Prime Minister Paul Kaba Thieba, as an ambassador. Mrs. Thieba's appointment comes as Burkina Faso finalizes its second family planning costed implementation plan aiming for a contraceptive prevalence rate of 32% by 2020. This significant show of political support will help the Ministry of Health and its partners intensify efforts.
In May 2017, the Partnership for Maternal, Newborn & Child Health and Women Deliver launched the Advocating for Change for Adolescents! toolkit. Developed by young people, for young people, the toolkit is a practical guide for in-country youth networks to design, implement, and monitor an effective national advocacy action roadmap on adolescent health and wellbeing.
Rajasthan became the second state in India to provide injectable contraceptives (intramuscular DMPA) free of cost in 132 public health facilities on May 27, thanks to a public, private, and non-profit partnership.


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ICT as a Research Topic Within the PERFORMA Master Teacher Program
Published September 2, 2012 | Multidisciplinary
Christine Gaucher, coordinator of the Maîtrise en enseignement au collégial for PERFORMA, presents research topics linked to ICT. She discusses academic perspectives, user skills and their influence on students. Subjects of interest include the gender link for ICT use, teacher skills and student interest in ICT at the college level.


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Lucky local foodies are in for a treat this weekend, as Adlington Hall welcomes local diners for Summer Sunday Lunch in the main dining room of its Hunting Lodge.
A stunning local historical site, Adlington Hall will be serving up a traditional Sunday Lunch set against the stunning backdrop of the recently restored East Range.
Starting at 12:30pm on Sunday 26th September, prices start from £18.25 for adults and £12 for children.
Tables are limited and often sell out, so booking in advance is advised.
Please visit the Adlington Hall Best of Macclesfield page for further details.
Sherrilyn B
Member since:
4th July 2012


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Twitter: Here's How to Turn Off Email Notifications
Stop receiving alerts
Did you know that Twitter allows you to turn off email notifications so that you no longer receive emails related to things like direct messages? Our guide will show you how to change your email notifications settings within the Twitter mobile application.
Note: These screenshots were captured in the Twitter app on iOS.
Step 1: Tap your profile picture in the top-left corner of the screen.
Step 2: Tap "Settings and privacy."
Step 3: Tap "Notifications."
Step 4: Tap "Email notifications."
Step 5: Tap the toggle to the right of "Email notifications" to turn off email notifications from Twitter. Alternatively, you can tap the toggle next to any of the email notification types you no longer wish to receive to turn them off individually.
If there is no toggle available, tap the notification type to see more options.


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Introductory Program for only $29.99
2-Week Intro Program for New Students
Energy combined with expertise, love for students, love for learning, and love for dance equals tons of fun!
Whether you are a serious artist following a path towards the world of professional dance, enjoy dancing as a hobby, or looking to build an excellent physique, look no further for inspiration, motivation and excellence!
From pre-dance classes for preschoolers to progressive programs for youth and adults, CoMMotion has a program that will challenge and inspire you. Fill out the form below and we'll contact you to get your first class scheduled.
Excellence is Possible…
"I began training with Commotion's owner, Bonnie Slawson at the age of 10. I was warmly welcomed into a studio where family, fun, and creativity are at the forefront. I developed a strong passion for dance due to the encouraging and supportive teachers I had the pleasure of studying with. I went on to earn a Bachelor of Arts Degree in dance. At the age of 28, I am now a professional dancer, which I attribute to the strong training I received from Bonnie. As a current faculty member at Commotion, I have come full circle, and am blessed to be back home training the next generation of dancers. Once you join the Commotion Family, you are truly part of a community where self expression is cultivated and each child is valued."


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BOOK REVIEW- ELEVEN MINUTES by PAULO COELHO.
This review is a duet between @faithbarb and @karanjakev whose websites are https://gatwirimurithi.wordpress.com and https://medium.com/@kelvinkev respectively.
"At that moment, however, I felt really frightened, because I knew that my new novel, Eleven Minutes, dealt with a subject that was harsh, difficult, shocking." ~Paulo Coelho~
In all fairness, even reviewing this book is not leisure skiing or warthog hunting for sport. This is exposing your fantasies to the world unawares. Of all the authors out there, Paulo is the last one we would have placed a favorable bet as likely to write on Orgasms, sex, prostitution, Sadomasochism or seduction, all in one little story that begun with … Once upon a time ... In this book, he explored topics that people rarely speak about over cups of Jasmine tea or steaming cups of Joe.
Extract: 'Maria waited for the light to change, she crossed the road and paused in front of the floral clock; she thought of Ralf, saw again the look of desire In his eyes on the night when she had slipped off the top half of her dress, felt his hands touching her breasts, her sex, her face, and she became wet; and as she looked at the vast column of water in the distance, without even having to touch any part of her own body, she had an orgasm right there, in front of everyone. Not that anyone noticed; they were all far too busy.'
That extract is where we begin this review. You may wonder why we chose to begin on such an elaborate mouth-watering extract. It is not because Maria had an orgasm, but the fashion under which she had it _ She thought about Ralf and the cup overflowed.
At the point where we got the above extract, Maria was yet to have had her first physical sexual encounter with Ralf. But she got an orgasm either way! How you ask?
Extract: 'Anyone who is in love is making love the whole time, even when they're not.
'Anyone capable of feeling knows that it is possible to experience pleasure before even touching the other person'
Yes, you read that right. The story revolves around sex, meaning of sex and why sex is not the act but the desires we replay in our minds months before the real encounter.
In another paradox, the book explores the industry of prostitution as a sex ecosystem where both men and women search for something deeper than sex unawares and which they never get because coitus lasts roughly 11 minutes then money is exchanged. These encounters become a never-ending cycle, an experience whose artificial face is sexual pleasure but underneath the veil, the real face is frustration.
Maria, is a young Brazilian girl, naïve and wise _ a paradox of sorts_. Her dreams were simple and straightforward, she would meet a handsome man, fall hopelessly or even courageously in love, and they would marry and move to a faraway place.
Unfortunately, her first encounter with love was disappointing. She was 11 years of age and fell in love with a boy. For months, she loved the boy deeply and secretly. She never mastered the courage to speak to the boy but she always looked forward to sunrises, for mornings were her finest hour, moments when she would walk behind the boy on the way to school and fantasize on how it would be like if the boy spoke to her.
One day, the boy spoke, he borrowed a pencil. Maria got mute. She could not speak and neither proffer a pencil. Love had finally spoken, but Maria lost her own breath and the words too. Love deemed her as not ready and neither interested. Henceforth, the boy never attempted to speak to Maria again, and shortly thereafter, the boy's parents moved town. Maria lived to regret her silence. It was a love she would remember for the rest of her life, as her adulthood journal would later reveal.
That first love would also mark the start of her many disappointments in life at searching for new love and purpose.
One afternoon, like all young people, at least the adventurously naughty ones, Maria decides to inspect her body a little bit, you know, just to make sure her legs are not hairy and stuff. This moment presents an interesting twist to her life.
Extract: She noticed a small gland above her vagina; she began touching it and found that she couldn't stop; the feelings provoked were so strong and so pleasurable, and her whole body – particularly the part she was touching – became tense. After a while, she began to enter a kind of paradise, the feelings grew in intensity, until she noticed that she could no longer see or hear clearly, everything appeared to be tinged with yellow, and then she moaned with pleasure and had her first orgasm. Orgasm!
She was 15 years of age.
That orgasm, she would later discover, no boy in her dating young life and neither many men in her adulthood would replicate. Only Maria could make herself orgasm through masturbation. This somehow disappointed her because coupled with boys who kept breaking her heart, she was no longer excited about Men and she chose to ignore love entirely. However, she resolved to understand it.
Extract: 'Although my aim is to understand love, and although I suffer to think of the people to whom I gave my heart, I see that those who touched my heart failed to arouse my body, and that those who aroused my body failed to touch my heart'.
Her desirous dream to travel and explore the world was realized when at 20 years of age she managed to travel to the big city, Rio de Janiero. She had planned to stay there for a week, but destiny had other plans. She met a man from Switzerland who offered her a job as a samba dancer in his club back in Europe. There are interesting twists here before Maria accepts, and within the month, she finds herself in Cologny, Switzerland.
In the entire book, she never goes back to Brazil.
We are fascinated by Maria's diary more than anything else. 11 Minutes is one book where the protagonist's diary is the main point of focus. Maria as aforementioned was an exceptionally wise woman and especially her journaling while in Switzerland is an earthquake of wisdom.
While at the Cabaret _ the night club she was working in as a samba dancer _ she fell out with her boss, the man who had fished her from Brazil and she finds herself without a Job in a foreign country. However, she had some money and a valid work permit.
Zealous to search for a new job, she does a photo shoot of herself and sends the pictures to a modelling agency hoping a client would pick her out and give her a job as a model. A call comes through, an Arab man requests for a meet. To her shock, the man offers 1,000 francs if she accepted to sleep with him. It was a lot of money and she was broke and broken enough already. She cries in front of the Arab when she realizes;
Extract: It wasn't the agency's fault, or hers, or the man's, this was simply how things worked.
That night, Extract: She went to the Arab's hotel, drank champagne, got herself almost completely drunk, opened her legs, waited for the him to have an orgasm.
It is at the Copacabana, now working as a prostitute, serving nuggets of wisdom and orgasms _which she never experienced herself_ to executives, Pilots, Doctors and such kind of motley that she discovered that men pay for a prostitute for a moment that lasts an average of 11 minutes. But, in doing this, men are always searching for something deeper, something they can't get from their wives and girlfriends, a connection yet to be understood, a fire which unbeknownst to them, is found in souls meeting, and not sexual organs meeting.
As a prostitute, Maria met Ralf, a youngish Painter, who would later, as elegantly detailed in the book _ make her Know God.
Ralf saw her 'light', when, all everybody else saw was an Innocent Girl, the Femme Fatal or 'the Understanding Mother to grown men', the three role-plays she perfected.
This painter alleged to see what Maria couldn't see in herself. In her mind she was a fake, having to keep up appearances and expectations of others towards herself, regretting her past and hiding her real self under future goals and future targets; which were to quit prostitution within the year and buy a ranch back in Brazil and settle gracefully as a farmer.
Maria was accustomed to men and their pick-up lines trying to "pick her up". But not this Ralf. He was genuinely interested in her as a woman, and as a person, and interestingly he respected her Job.
His approach was softly rattling her soul, and within her, a force was awakening and threatening to prove destructive to everything she held on to. She was guarding herself from falling in love and with it evading the hurt that naturally is inherent with love.
Extract; keeping passion at bay or surrendering blindly to it-which of these two attitudes is the least destructive?
Things began to pick up pace between Maria and Ralf Hart as they strive to understand and grasp this phenomenon called 'love'. Reading through their conversation feels transformative because their arguments, their words, bleed right into ones' soul the only way poetry knows how to.
They are both vulnerable and completely honest with each other. Unlike the rest of Switzerland-World where everybody "knows everything", _People have this disease generally_
Both, chose to believe, that they didn't have answers to the questions they asked each other about love, life and sex. It is through conversing, sharing of knowledge and sharing of discoveries each had made along their own separate journeys and more importantly sharing of their individual truths and exchanging small gifts that symbolized something, that it occurred to them they were beginning to understand themselves in the realm of sex, without having touched each other or even taken off their clothes to attempt love making.
Extract; really important meetings are planned by the souls long before the bodies see each other.
During their splendor dating and Maria unapologetically persisting in her work as a prostitute, she discovers a new form of pleasure; Masochism. She meets a man called Terence, a client and a Music executive career wise. He, like all sexually weird men, knew much about pain and pleasure and the history of deriving sexual heights from inflicting pain on your partner.
In their only encounter, Terence employed both whipping, supplication, humiliation and spanking, a combination of which gave her an orgasm she has never experienced.
Extract; She saw him place the end of the whip handle against her vagina. He rubbed it up and down, and when it touched her clitoris, she lost all control …. But suddenly she had the orgasm which, in all those months, dozens, no, hundreds of men had failed to give her.
This experience threatened to invalidate her love to Ralf and his to hers. Maria, almost became a convert to masochism. Pain and pleasure proved addictive and she wanted that experience again. From her diary:
Extract: When I experienced humiliation and total submission, I was free. … I was a bit frightened by the pain, but it wasn't as bad as the humiliation, and it was just a pretext. When I had my first orgasm in many months, despite all, the many men I've been with and many different things they've done with my body, I felt – is this possible? – closer to God.
When Ralf discovers that masochism is threatening to take away the woman he loves, what does he do next? How does this couple navigate; Prostitution, Pain, Pleasure, their ethereal love and the discovery of the true meaning of sex? Because, neither prostitution or the 11 minutes that the physical sexual activity lasts can be termed as sex!
It is only fair that the woman in this review does the ending paragraph, because anyway these details were revealed to many but ladies understood best … so here goes nothing … here goes her mind …
In conclusion, most of us are like Maria-or Helga. So, unsatisfied, so clueless yet always yearning for something no words can explain. But we aren't courageous enough to talk about it or to admit it amongst ourselves. So, I would recommend everyone to read this book, patiently and honestly. Do not overthink much into it, just let that which you struggle to push to the back of your mind take precedent.


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Heating Oil Delivery
Heating Oil Service That Won't Give You Fits!
Heating oil has changed significantly in the last 20 years. Today's heating oil is cleaner and more efficient than ever before. What hasn't changed is the unmatched warmth oil heat provides and the exceptional care you'll receive from Stover Energy! We offer both automatic delivery and will call delivery for fuel oil service that fits your needs — not give you fits. Unfortunately, recent upheaval in our local heating oil market has done just that by leaving many people without an oil supplier they can rely on.
Dependability you can count on!
We have been earning the trust of families in the Hershey PA area since 1957. Not only will we be there when you need us, we keep our heating oil prices competitive. Whether you choose automatic delivery or will call delivery, we work for you to provide the best heating oil service in the area.
Quality that saves you money!
We also fortify every gallon of fuel oil we deliver with an additive that keeps your system clean and performing efficiently. Our technicians have seen first-hand the difference this makes for our customers. There is less corrosive soot to be removed, and that means longer burner life and lower heating costs! Our quality additive also helps preserve the oil in your tank between seasons. The oil we deliver to you today will burn just as well when you turn your system on next season.
No one cares for its customers like Stover Energy! It would be our privilege to serve you! Contact us today!
Delivery Options
Stover Energy offers two types of heating oil delivery:
Automatic Delivery
This option is perfect for customers who like the convenience of not having to monitor their heating oil levels and place a phone call when they need an oil delivery. We carefully monitor your usage history, outdoor temperatures, and weather forecasts to schedule your heating oil deliveries when your tank is between one-quarter and one-third full. If we see bad weather in the forecast, we may come sooner to ensure you have plenty of heating oil.
We have so much confidence in our automatic delivery service that we will credit your account $50 and make an emergency oil delivery to you immediately if you lose primary heat due to a scheduling error on our part!
Most of our customers choose this option because it is easy and does not cost extra. We offer several pricing and payment options to make comfort easy and affordable!
Will Call Delivery
Will-call delivery is a good option for customers who use heating oil as a secondary heat source, or who prefer not to fill their oil tank completely. In most cases, if you call us by noon, we will deliver your heating oil within one business day! Please note, deliveries during extreme weather conditions including snow, ice, and prolonged cold may require additional time. We will do our very best to serve you promptly.
If heating oil is your primary heat source or used for hot water, we highly recommend Automatic Delivery to ensure you always have enough heating oil to meet your needs!
Pricing & Payment Options
Stover Energy is dedicated to making winter comfort easy and affordable! We offer several ways to structure and pay for your heating oil deliveries, either with or without price protection.
Pricing Options at-a-glance
|Pricing Structure
|Payment Schedule
|Monthly Payment Plan – Basic
|Equal monthly payments (after first delivery)
|Monthly Payment Plan – Plus Cap
|Equal monthly payments (after first delivery)
|Pre-Buy – Fixed
|Payment due in full at the start of the season.
|Pre-Buy – Capped
|Payment due in full at the start of the season.
|Pay by the Delivery
|Payment by credit card is due before delivery
Monthly Payment Plan – Basic
Our Basic Monthly Payment Plan option takes your estimated annual heating cost and spreads it into equal and lower monthly payments. Regardless of the number of oil deliveries you receive, your monthly payment will be the same each month. This is especially helpful in the coldest months, when oil deliveries tend to be more frequent.
When calculating your monthly payment, our goal is to predict the actual oil cost as accurately as possible using your past usage history and an expected average price per gallon. At the end of the heating season, we will compare the actual cost of your oil deliveries to your total payments, and any payment overage or underage is then settled.
Because no two winters are the same, we encourage customers to retain their delivery tickets to help ensure that their monthly payments are keeping pace with the cost of their oil deliveries. We are here to help! Customers are welcome to call us at any time during the season to adjust their monthly payment amount.
Please note that our Basic Monthly Payment Plan offers no price guarantee. Heating oil prices will fluctuate with market conditions and may change without notice.
Monthly Payment Plan – PLUS Price Cap
Our Monthly Payment Plan PLUS Price Cap works the same as our Basic Monthly Payment Plan, with the added benefit of a capped heating oil price. This price cap protects you from dramatic price increases by "capping" your oil price for the season. Your monthly payment is based on your capped price and usage history. If oil prices start to rise, your per-gallon heating price will not exceed your capped price. But if heating oil prices are lower than your capped price at the time of your delivery, you will receive the benefit of the lower price in the form of an end-of-season refund or credit toward the following season's oil. We charge a small fee for capped pricing, which is included in your monthly payment.
Price protection is typically offered at the beginning of each heating season. While savings are never guaranteed, a price cap may be a good option for you if you use more than 600 gallons of fuel per season and you are concerned that prices will increase sharply. For help deciding if a price cap is right for you, please contact us.
Pre-Buy with Fixed Price
Customers who prefer the certainty of a fixed heating oil price can take advantage of our Fixed-Price Pre-Buy program. With this option, the you'll pay for all of your heating oil in advance of the season at a pre-determined fixed price. (Some people also refer to this as a locked-in heating oil price.) The quantity of heating oil purchased is based on the customer's past usage. Customers who choose our fixed price option will not be affected by increases or decreases in the market price of heating oil. If all of their pre-paid heating oil is delivered before the season ends, any remaining deliveries will be at market price.
Pre-Buy with Capped Price
As an alternative, customers can choose to pre-buy their oil with a capped heating oil price instead of a fixed price. In this scenario, you'll purchase all of you oil in advance of the season at the capped price. If the market price of heating oil is lower than your capped price at the time of delivery, you'll receive a refund for the difference at the end of the season or a credit toward the following season. If all of the your pre-paid heating oil is delivered before the season ends, any remaining deliveries will be at market price. A fee for capped pricing is added to the cost of their pre-buy. For help deciding if a price cap is right for you, please contact us.
Pay by the Delivery
Customers who prefer to pay by the delivery may do so by credit card. Paying by the delivery is a best suited for customers who receive less frequent oil deliveries. If oil is your primary heat source, we highly recommend enrolling in one of the plans above.
A history of heating oil prices and trends is available on US Energy Information Administration's website.
We accept:
Heating Oil Tanks
Your heating oil tank is an important part of your heating system and protects the quality of your heating oil.
Oil Tank Replacement
When the time comes to replace your oil tank, we are happy to perform that service for you. In addition, NORA (National Oilheat Research Alliance) frequently offers Pennsylvania consumers a rebate towards the replacement of their heating oil tanks. Please contact us to find out if a NORA rebate is available to you.
Oil Tank Life Span: There are many factors that determine how long you can expect an aboveground heating oil tank to last, but the average life of an aboveground heating oil tank is approximately 15 years. Outdoor oil tanks that are exposed to the elements may not last as long.
Oil Tank Maintenance
These simple steps will help keep your above ground oil tank in good shape and prolong its life.
- Look for oil stains on your tank. If you see any stains, please call us immediately!
- Look for loose or chipped paint. Carefully brush away any loose paint or surface rust, then apply touch-up enamel to help prevent the formation of rust.
- Do not touch any part of a tank that appears to be rusted-through or damaged.
- Keep any heavy debris that could dent or puncture your oil tank away from your tank.
- Inspect your tank visually at the beginning and end of each heating season.
- Only use quality heating oil to prevent the formation of tank sediment, which can cause system breakdowns and damage your tank.
Call Ellen at 717-877-9373.
Call Us Now!
Want Us to Contact You?
Office Hours
Mon – Fri: 7:30 AM – 4:30 PM
Sat & Sun: Closed
Calls Monitored 24/7
341 Gates Rd, Hershey, PA 17033


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Search results
Plant Pathology Alums Doing Amazing Work!
management programs for tomatoes and other vegetables. She has done a lot of work with anaerobic soil ... what a few of our Plant Pathology alums are doing below: Dr. Shaoyan Zhang, '19 '20 Plant ... Pathology- Shaoyan studied the molecular biology of viruses with Dr. Feng Qu. His research uncovered new and ...
Cropland Values and Cash Rents for Western Ohio: Survey Results are In
return, and the variability of those crop returns. Soils and drainage capabilities are the two factors ... were rural appraisers, agricultural lenders, professional farm managers, ag business professionals, OSU ... 2.0 percent depending on the region and land class. For the complete survey research summary go to the ...
Celebrating Buckeyes
Join us in Celebrating our CFAES Buckeyes by checking out the achievements and memories of our ... that you would like to share, click here to add it to our collection. Alumni Jade Heizer- '17 ... Economics BS, Adam Vonderhaar '18 Agricultural Systems Management BS, Ryan Vonderhaar '18 ...
EA Test Page
between human societies and the natural environment. England: Evolution in Darwin's World and Ours ... Travel Time: May 2021 Evolution in Darwin's World and Ours provides an opportunity for students to learn ... Information Information Session PPT England: Evolution in Darwin's World and Ours (May 2021) ...
Sounds of Silence
I recently "attended" our National Extension Associate of Family and Consumer Sciences conference, it was to ... those actually came from a co-worker in Ohio on the need for quiet in our lives. Here is some of the ... that noise could have. Read on for many details. Our lives today are full of noise and ever-present ...
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Find out how to get involved in our upcoming virtual career fairs. ...
Farm Office Live is back!
with our next Farm Office Live on October 7, 2020 from 8 to 9:30 a.m. Join our experts for quick ...
Noxious Weeds
animals. The Ohio Department of Agriculture maintains a list of these plants in our state. To go along with ... research. Some can cause skin burns or have spines/hairs that can cause pain or a rash. Gloves are ... the method does not work year after year, change it up or try using more than one tactic to manage ...
Fall Hay Harvest, Weed Control, and Agritourism
late mowing than heavy clay soils. Chemical Weed Control Sometimes, the weeds in our pastures or ... prepare for winter. Another management consideration involves taking a final cutting after the killing ... can help to protect the roots from severe winter damage. Well drained soils are better candidates for ...
Sushant Mehan
research projects he is working on will advance the understanding of nutrient movement and inform best ... West Lafayette, IN 47906, Agricultural Engineering Hydrology Water Quality Best Management Practices ... Climate Extremes Hydroinformatics Watershed (Agricultural and Non-Agricultural) management Dr. Sushant ...


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2016 Salary Trends in Healthcare
By: Catherine Conlan
The growth that healthcare employees have seen in their salaries is likely to continue in 2016, experts say. "It's one of the most consistently growing occupational segments out there," says Jonas Johnson, senior researcher at Irvine, California-based Economic Research Institute.
Growth varies widely by position, however. Johnson says his research has found that over the past 15 years, top-of-the-line specialized surgeons and lower-level physicians such as general practitioners have seen strong growth, while midlevel specialists, such as obstetrics and gynecology, have seen slower growth.
Even with variations, healthcare salaries continue to be strong. "Healthcare is similar to the technology industry — we've been seeing pretty tremendous wage growth over the last few years," says Katie Bardaro, vice president of data analytics at PayScale.
There are three factors driving this trend in healthcare salaries:
Expanded Health Insurance
The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (also known as the ACA or "Obamacare") has provided health insurance to millions of people who previously weren't covered. The increased availability of coverage has led to higher demand for healthcare, Bardaro says.
The Health Resources and Services Administration estimated that the full scope of the ACA would account for 19 percent of the change in demand for health care services between 2010 and 2020.
An Aging Population Needs More Healthcare
An aging population tends to require more care, Bardaro says. Older people need more extensive care and often more interventions, increasing demand across the system.
The aging population puts pressure on supply on the other side, as well: More providers are retiring as they age out, says Dallas-based compensation consultant Dindy Robinson, particularly as they are faced with changing regulations or practices, such as the recent ICD-10 update.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics expects more than a million job openings for nurses alone by 2022, for example. Workplace stress has also pushed some nurses out of their jobs prematurely, Robinson says.
As for doctors, a 2015 study for the Association of American Medical Colleges said that by 2025 there will be a shortage of up to 90,000 physicians in primary and specialty care.
The Healthcare Industry: Immune to Downturns
Demand for healthcare services isn't as affected by a strong or weak economy as many other industries, since people tend to get healthcare out of need.
"It doesn't drop with the economic climate — you may be sick or injured regardless of what the stock market is doing," Bardaro says. As a result, demand for services doesn't cycle with economic conditions.
Other factors, such as geography, may affect healthcare salaries in specific areas. In addition, incentive-based models that employers use to reward key performance indicators such as average length of hospital stay or rate of patient complications can affect salaries in certain areas, Robinson says, adding that employees at independent practices generally tend to make less than their counterparts in larger organizations.


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Are Architects And Building Professionals Overlooking A Critical Role?
The following is an excerpted Eco Building Pulse interview with Maureen Guttman, AIA. Maureen is the VP of Buildings and Utilities at the Alliance and the Executive Director of BCAP. Click here to read the article in its entirety.
You're trained as an architect. How did you get into the codes realm?
I started doing government affairs work for the AIA, staring in Pennsylvania and then at the national level. I was always the codes person. I like that aspect of design. Codes are an enormous tool to promote and grow economic development, but you have to know how to use them and not be led by them. I started to understand that my colleagues didn't know this or have an appreciation for it.
My focus expanded to how policy issues influence what we do as design professionals and how only a few of us are engaged in these conversations. Whether they are about land use issues, transportation issues, energy issues, or workforce issues, architects are never there [for those discussions]. We should be part of these conversations at every level.
I often tell architects that they don't understand the things that are happening at the policy and manufacturing level—things that are going to change the way we work. This change is going to happen very quickly and it will leave us in the dust, and that scares me. I don't like the idea of the built environment losing the influence of architects because they bring a different education and level of sensitivity to the picture. Our culture can't afford to lose us, but we're ignoring the changes underway.
How can architects and builders play a role in advocating for better codes and standards?
They have to play a larger role, but the big challenge is engaging design professionals. A lot of the drive for green buildings has come from progressive home builders and a very small slice of passionate design professionals. It's not mainstream.
A big piece of what I've been working on is how to get professionals to understand that there is an obligation as a part of licensure to do the best you can relative to building science—even in the face of clients who may not know to express a desire for it or those who are actively saying no. That's a huge cultural change. Promoting the adoption and use of more stringent energy codes will help you make these arguments to clients. It's easy for clients to override you by saying that if it's not required, they're not going to do it. Help us get the requirements in place.
What about the energy benchmarking legislation?
It's awesome. It's a really good toe in the door to start to make the case [for energy efficiency] because it provides consumer awareness. The benchmarking laws don't cover residential, but they raise the thoughts with the homeowner such as "I bought this house. It costs exactly the same as the one next door, but the energy costs here are twice as high." It makes people think about what it will cost over the course of a 30-year mortgage.
There are a lot of bad examples relative to adoption and compliance. Code officials are overburdened, they're often not considered to be a professional arm of the government, and they're not funded appropriately. Energy falls to the bottom of the list unless producing energy-efficient buildings is a municipal and cultural value.
What are the most critical things we must do between now and 2020?
At the least, we should have everyone on [the 2009 IECC], but we should also be progressively getting people to 2012 levels. I would like 2012 to be in at least half of the states by 2012, and to have the 2009 code in the rest.
More important than getting things adopted, though, is finding a way to show that we're not only using the codes, but also are complying with them. That's why benchmarking in such a great thing—it starts to create the understanding that you can't change something if you can't measure it. To understand whether we are complying with energy codes and to show we're pushing them forward will certainly require design professionals. Design professionals are the most important piece of the equation, and a piece that has been ignored and has lagged.
I don't yet know what I think about outcome-based code proposals. I understand the theory and desired outcome, but it's impossible for me to imagine who will take responsibility for anything that occurs in a building after it is occupied. Architects need to change the way they think about this—we need to change the definition of design. It isn't just about pretty buildings. It's about great performing buildings. It isn't one or the other and never was. But that's the perception we've created in the public mind. What we do is so much more than the end product of a great-looking building and it disturbs me that we promote ourselves that way.


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The third week with BZX Giveaway is done. The total winning pool for the third week that was given out was 1540 BZX (value $200) 😀
Congrats to all winners!
Participate in BZX Giveaway here.
- ADZ Tutorials
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- Install ADZbuzz app to your Android phone
- Download offline wallet. Some virus protections can show "red" on the file but everything is secure. See proof.


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Last year I wrote a post outlining the ways anyone could save £1.000 in one year and the different ways it could be done. You could either save in small increments of £2,74 a day, or larger weekly or monthly ones equivalent to £19,24 a week or £83,33 a month.
I gave few examples about ways you could save the money by cutting out bad habits or indulgences – like Domino's pizza or smoking. Now, one year on, the moment of truth is here. Did I manage to save £1.000 in one year like I set out to do?
Short answer: yes I did.
Long answer: It didn't exactly go to plan, but I managed it.
Turns out that saving £2,74 a day is more difficult than expected because the amount is so minimal that you (and by that I mean me) often forgot about it entirely and ended up spending it on coffee or parking or losing it completely under my car seat.
It took me a good few weeks to realise this, and I thereby decided to go digital. This choice was the game changer. It really helped me out. I set up a savings step to take a flat £20 a week from my bank account to my savings wallet automatically. Automating this saving was the only way that I managed to complete this challenge at all because (to be honest) by February, I found it difficult to remind myself to make the savings every day. I had so much going on in my life that it often slipped my mind, despite my best intentions.
It wasn't until Easter when I wanted to go away on holiday, and realised I had less money than expected in my current account, that I checked my savings wallet and saw I had a good amount of money stashed away.
Although I was tempted to blow it all on a weekend in Berlin I was so proud of myself that I refrained. That's not to say that some of it wasn't leaked away throughout the year on birthday presents and emergency Mother's Day flowers, but I dutifully topped up my account each time I emptied it out of schedule and I now have £1.040 saved up in my digital wallet waiting to be added to or invested.
Not bad for a year of doing nothing except setting up one automated savings step!


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Large Gauge Piercing Pricing
Pricing for large gauge piercings start from:
12ga (2mm), 10ga (2.4mm), 8ga (3.2mm), 6ga (4mm): $65.00 ea plus jewellery*
18ga (1mm), 14ga (1.6mm), 12ga (2mm): $120.00 ea including jewellery*
Lobe or Cartilage Punches
3mm - 6mm: $220.00 ea including jewellery*
Lobe Punches and Closure
4mm upwards: from $460.00 ea plus jewellery*
Cartilage Punches and Closure
4mm upwards: from $700.00 ea plus jewellery*
from $460.00 ea plus jewellery.*
Coin Slot Piercings: (click for more info on coin slots)
from $700.00 plus jewellery
*Jewellery used is ASTM F-136 implant grade titanium eyelets or glass eyelets.
Depending on your specific anatomical needs, we may opt to use custom made PTFE or Delrin jewellery.
We never used stainless ("surgical") steel, silicone, acrylic, PVD black jewellery etc for fresh piercings.


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The number of U.S. troops on the ground in Syria, Afghanistan and Iraq is higher than previously acknowledged by the Pentagon, according to a report by the Department of Defense.
There are nearly 26,000 Americans deployed in the three Middle East countries as of Sept. 30, according to the quarterly Defense Manpower Data Center.
The Pentagon usually cites "force management levels," caps set under President Barack Obama, when asked about the number of troops serving in certain war zones.
Officially there are 503 troops in Syria and 5,262 in Iraq, according to the caps.
But the new report from Defense puts the number of troops as 1,720 in Syria and 8,892 in Iraq.
In Afghanistan, there are 15,298 active duty members of the military on the ground and another 1,202 Defense Department civilians.
An April report from the Congressional Research Service noted that there are also 25,197 private military contractors in the country.
The Pentagon announced in August that it would begin counting temporarily deployed units when reporting overall troop numbers in the three war-torn countries, accounting for some of the fluctuating numbers.
Accurate troop counts took on greater significance after four American soldiers were killed in the central African nation of Niger last month.
Last year, the Defense Department acknowledged that there were seven troops stationed there.
According to the latest report, there are 509 active duty troops in Niger.


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New player characters:
- Cyrax (Sal Divita) – Yellow-colored Lin Kuei cyber assassin, and second of the three cyber assassins.
- Kabal (Richard Divizio) – Former Black Dragon warrior.
- Nightwolf (Sal Divita) – Native American shaman.
- Sektor (Sal Divita) – Red-colored Lin Kuei cyber assassin and also the first of the three cyborgs.
- Sindel (Lia Montelongo) – Resurrected Queen of Edenia who is being controlled by Shao Kahn. Sindel was originally named Mushasha in the early versions of the game.
- Sheeva (stop motion) – Female Shokan whose loyalty lies in the hands of Shao Kahn, and is also the protector of Sindel.
- Stryker (Michael O'Brien) – Riot control officer.
Returning player characters:
- Jax (John Parrish) – Special Forces major who works with Sonya to apprehend Kano.
- Kano (Richard Divizio) – Black Dragon thug who escaped arrest by Sonya and Jax.
- Kung Lao (Tony Marquez) – Shaolin monk who seeks to stop what Kahn is planning.
- Liu Kang (Eddie Wong) – Returning Mortal Kombat champion.
- Sonya Blade (Kerri Hoskins) – Special Forces lieutenant setting out again to capture Kano.
- Sub-Zero (John Turk) – Rogue Lin Kuei ninja who fled the clan after refusing to be converted to a cybernetic unit.
- Shang Tsung (John Turk) – Shao Kahn's devious sorcerer.
- Smoke (Sal Divita) – Indigo-colored cyber assassin from the Lin Kuei and last of the three cyborgs, who was once a close friend of Sub-Zero (unlocked by the Ultimate Kombat Kode).
Boss characters:
- Motaro (stop-motion) – A Centaur and the game's sub-boss.
- Shao Kahn (Brian Glynn, voiced by Steve Ritchie) – Emperor of Outworld and the game's final boss.
Although the game's manual states both boss characters are unplayable, both Motaro and Shao Kahn can be enabled via secret cheat menus in the SNES and Genesis versions of the game. Noob Saibot (Richard Divizio) also returns as a hidden opponent.


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Other research summaries in this Reporter
NBER Reporter 2015 Number 3: Research Summary
The Effects of Austerity: Recent Research
Alberto Alesina and Francesco Giavazzi
Alberto Alesina is the Nathaniel Ropes Professor of Political Economy at Harvard University and director of the Political Economy Program at the National Bureau of Economic Research. He is a member of the Center for Economic Policy Research, the Econometric Society, and the American Academy of Arts and Sciences.
Alesina has published five books, including The Future of Europe: Reform or Decline, with Francesco Giavazzi, and Fighting Poverty in the US and Europe: A World of Difference, with Edward Glaser. He has been a co-editor of the Quarterly Journal of Economics for eight years and has published widely in all the major academic journals in economics.
He has written columns for leading newspapers around the world, and has visited at institutions including MIT, Tel Aviv University, Stockholm University, the World Bank, and the IMF. He holds a visiting position at IGIER, Bocconi University.
Born in Italy in 1957, Alesina obtained his Ph.D. from Harvard in 1986 and served as chairman of the department of economics there from 2003-06.
Francesco Giavazzi is professor of economics at Bocconi University in Milan, where he also has served as deputy rector for research. He previously taught at the University of Essex, the University of Venice, and the University of Bologna. He was a visiting professor at MIT from 2003 to 2014.
Giavazzi is a research fellow of the Center for Economic and Policy Research and a research associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research. Jointly with these organizations and Bocconi University, he contributed to creation of IGIER, the Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research.
Giavazzi has served as director general at the Italian Treasury, as a member of the strategic committee of Agence France Trésor, and as an adviser to the President of the European Commission. He chairs the scientific committee of the Centre d'Études Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales and is a member of the Bellagio Group. In 2003, he was the Houblon-Norman Fellow at the Bank of England. He visited the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in 2013 and 2015. He published Limiting Exchange Rate Flexibity with Alberto Giovannini in 1989 and The Future of Europe: Reform or Decline with Alberto Alesina in 2006.
Giavazzi obtained a degree in electrical engineering from the Politecnico di Milano in 1972 and a Ph.D. in economics from MIT in 1978.
What are the costs in terms of output losses of so-called "austerity" policies designed to reduce large government deficits and mounting public debt? The debate on this issue is raging, especially after the latest round of austerity in Europe.
The question is difficult to answer for at least three reasons. The first is "endogeneity," the two-way interaction between fiscal policy and output growth. Suppose you observe a reduction in the government deficit and an economic boom. It would be highly questionable to conclude that deficit reduction policies generate growth, since it could be easily the other way around. Second, major episodes of austerity are often accompanied by changes in other policies: monetary policy, exchange rate movements, labor market reforms, regulation or deregulation of various product markets, tax reforms, and so on. In addition, they are sometimes adopted at times of crisis due to runaway debts, not in periods of "business as usual." Third, virtually all austerity programs are based upon multi-year plans announced in advance and then revised along the way. To the extent that expectations matter, the multi-year nature of these plans cannot be ignored.
An early literature started by Francesco Giavazzi and Marco Pagano1 and reviewed and summarized by Alberto Alesina and Silvia Ardagna2 reached two conclusions regarding austerity policies in advanced industrial economies. First, expenditure-based adjustments, namely those based upon cutting spending and not raising taxes, or relying less on tax increases than on spending cuts, were found to be much less costly in terms of output losses than tax-based approaches. Second, expenditure-based adjustments accompanied by an appropriate set of related policies can sometimes be expansionary, even in the short run.
This literature was well aware of the three problems discussed above. The first was initially addressed by considering cyclically adjusted deficit over GDP ratios as measures of fiscal policy. This variable, in principle, should eliminate the effects on deficits of output fluctuations. The second and third problems were addressed in a variety of ways, including case studies.3
In some recent research, we and our coauthors have revisited these questions, and tried to go deeper4 than previous work. In order to address the endogeneity problem, we adopt the "narrative method" proposed by Christina Romer and David Romer.5 This approach attempts to solve the endogeneity problem by identifying through direct consultation of the relevant budget documents only changes in fiscal policy not implemented to achieve cyclical stablization, but for other goals. Implementing this technique, Romer and Romer identified episodes of tax changes in the U.S.6 Using a similar methodology, Pete Devries, Jaime Guajardo, Daniel Leigh, and Andrea Pescatori identified "7 Guajardo, Leigh, and Pescatori8 analyzed these data and found results broadly consistent with those summarized by Alesina and Ardagna,9 although with some variation on the size of the difference between tax increases and spending cuts, depending on monetary policy.
In the previously cited work with Carlo Favero, we address the third problem mentioned above, namely that fiscal adjust-ments are typically carried out through multi-year plans in which announcements and revisions deeply affect the expectations of economic agents. To begin, we checked the episodes of exogenous fiscal consolidations identified by Devries, et al, and corrected a few inconsistencies. More importantly, we constructed "plans." By going back to the original sources (National Budget Reports, EU Stability Programs, IMF documents, OECD Economic Surveys, etc.), we reconstructed actions taken at the time an austerity plan was adopted, announcements made at the time of adoption regarding future periods of up to three years, and revisions of these announcements in the actual policies then carried out.
To be more precise, a fiscal plan implemented at time t typically contains three components:
• Shifts implemented at time t but which had been announced in previous years
• Shifts announced at time t, to be implemented in future years
To study the potentially heterogeneous effects of plans depending on their nature, we distinguish between Tax-Based (TB) and Expenditure-Based (EB) plans. A plan is labeled TB if the sum of all the tax measures (unexpected, announced in the past and currently implemented, and announced at t for future implementation) measured as a fraction of year t GDP is greater than the sum of the corresponding expenditure measures.
Consider as an example the Australian fiscal plan implemented between 1985 and 1988. The plan was announced in 1985 and consolidation lasted until 1988 with subsequent revisions of the original plan. In 1985 the government announced a sequence of medium-term spending cuts aimed at reducing a large, inherited budget deficit. The initial plan featured no change in taxation and spending cuts of 0.45 percent of GDP in both 1985 and 1986. In 1986, the plan was revised. The new plan called for additional spending cuts of 0.4 percent of GDP to be implemented immediately, that is, in 1986; it also announced a further spending cut of 0.26 percent of GDP to be implemented in 1987 and a small reversal of -0.08 in 1988. Eventually, in 1987, this slight spending reversal was abandoned and replaced by further cuts amounting to 0.37 percent of GDP. Revenue increases were also introduced: an unanticipated tax increase of 0.17 percent of GDP was implemented in 1986, while a further "EB" plan because expenditure cuts exceed tax increases. This example shows that overlooking pre-announced plans and considering simply unanticipated shifts in fiscal variables would ignore important information available both to firms and to consumers.
When studying fiscal plans, it is important to take into account the correlation between tax changes and spending cuts. Governments never decide the two components in isolation, but design the plan as a whole. For instance, a government may first decide it needs to implement an adjustment of, say, 2 percent of GDP and also decide that 0.5 percent of that adjustment will take place through spending cuts. Once this decision is adopted, tax increases are endogenous: They will amount to (2-0.5) = 1.5 percent of GDP. Similarly, one should also consider the correlation between unexpected measures and those announced for future implementation, because they are also jointly determined within a plan. We categorize plans according to what we call their "style," which reflects the correlation between unanticipated shifts in fiscal variables and those announced for the future. In some countries–Italy, for example–actions such as spending cuts often are reversed after being implemented. In other countries–Canada, for example–fiscal actions are persistent. Country "styles" are particularly important when we simulate the effect of an unanticipated shift in fiscal variables, amounting, say, to 1 percent of GDP, paired with the announcement of actions to be taken in the future. Omitting announcements would amount to simulating a plan that is not the one actually adopted.
In our work with Favero, we simulate the effect of the average plan implemented over the estimation period (1981-2007).10 In work with Favero, Omar Barbiero, and Matteo Paradisi,11 we simulate out of sample the plans adopted by various countries since 2010. In the first of these papers, we examine the effect of EB and TB plans on output, private consumption, investment, and consumer and investor confidence for 14 countries: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Germany, Spain, France, United Kingdom, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Portugal and the United States. In our sample, 84 plans are EB and 51 are TB. Although our model with the TB and EB dummies could be sensitive to the categorization of plans into EB and TB, in particular if spending and tax shares were close to 50 percent, this is not the case here. The vast majority of plans in our estimation sample are far from a 50-50. In only three plans is the share of spending cuts between 49 and 51 percent and in only 15 is it between 45 and 55. The share of spending cuts in the average EB plan (in which the average total annual adjustment is 1.36 percent of GDP) is 84 percent, while in the case of TB plans (in which the average total annual adjustment is 0.89 percent of GDP) the share is 76 percent. In the estimated model, the effects of EB and TB adjustments are constrained to be the same across countries. We allow styles to differ across countries, and we allow for parameter differences between euro area and non-euro area countries.
Our main finding is that fiscal adjustments based upon cuts in spending are much less costly, in terms of output losses, than those based upon tax increases. Over our estimation period (1981-2007), the output effect of an average TB adjustment plan with an initial size of one percent of GDP is a cumulative contraction in GDP of two to three percent in the following three years.12 In contrast, spending-based adjustments generate very small recessions, with an impact on output growth not significantly different from zero. As an example, Figure 1 shows the large differences between the effects of a one percent reduction of deficits implemented through an EB plan (in blue) and a TB plan (in black) in Canada. The effect on output growth of EB plans is indistinguishable from zero for about two years and then becomes significantly positive, while TB adjustments lead to deep recessions. The component of aggregate demand which seems to explain these differences in all countries, not only Canada, is investment, which is correlated with investor confidence.
In our work with Favero, Barbiero, and Paradisi, we extend the dataset up to 2013 for the following countries: Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Spain, France, Germany, United Kingdom, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, and the United States.13 The effects of recent episodes of austerity do not look different from previous ones. Out-of-sample simulations of our model projecting output growth conditional only upon exogenous fiscal adjustments do reasonably well in predicting the total output fluctuations of the countries in our sample over the years 2010-13, particularly for those countries in which the main shock in that period was a fiscal policy one. For example, our estimates suggest that the tax-based adjustment implemented in Italy in 2010-13 is sufficient by itself to explain the recession experienced by the country over the period 2011-12, with negative GDP growth of around 2 percent in each year. The expenditure-based adjustments implemented in countries such as the U.K. and Denmark are associated with much milder recessions, with GDP growth fluctuating around zero.
We cannot reject the hypothesis that recent fiscal adjustments had the same effect on output growth as past ones, although in some cases failure to reject is marginal. We do not find sufficient evidence to suggest that the recent rounds of fiscal adjustments have been especially costly for the economy, and we conclude that the fiscal multipliers estimated using data from the pre-crisis period give valuable information about the amount of output loss due to the post-crisis fiscal consolidation measures. This result is at odds with Blanchard and Leigh,14 who find that the costs of fiscal adjustments have been higher in recent years than previously estimated. The difference between the two results depends on a number of factors, including our choice not to constrain consolidations based on spending cuts and those based on increases in government revenues to have identical effects on output.
In current work in progress with Favero, Barbiero, and Paradisi,15 we take our analysis a step further by exploring the potential heterogeneity in the output effects associated with different components of revenues and expenditures. We disaggregate fiscal shocks into four components: government consumption and investments, transfers, direct taxes and indirect taxes. From a theoretical point of view, each of these components should affect GDP growth through different channels. For instance, in the short run, cuts in government consumption and investment might impact GDP growth through demand-side effects; in the medium and long run, their effect on growth might depend on the government's efficiency in providing public goods and services. Transfer cuts reduce the resources available to households, which in turn may be forced to cut consumption, especially if liquidity constrained. These measures also may have supply-side effects by increasing labor supply. In addition, a reduction in both expenditure components may generate expectations of lower taxes and correspondingly reduced future economic distortions, with potentially positive wealth effects.
The previous literature has addressed the issue of composition primarily by looking at revenues versus spending in the aggregate. Recent papers by Karel Mertens and Morten Ravn,16 Romer and Romer,17 and Roberto Perotti18 are exceptions. However, they focus only on the United States. Our paper presents an international panel of disaggregated fiscal consolidation plans and analyzes their economic effects. Building on the methodology established in our work with Favero, we classify fiscal plans into four categories: direct tax-based, indirect tax-based, consumption-based, and transfers-based.
Our first finding is that plans based on different spending and revenue components indeed have heterogeneous effects on GDP growth, as Figure 2 shows for the case of France. Results for the other countries are similar. While the heterogeneity in revenue components is less pronounced, on the expenditure side transfers seem to be clearly different from consumption and investment. The effect of a cut in transfers is more similar to that of an increase in taxation than to that of a cut in expenditure. Looking at other macroeconomic variables, the similarity between tax hikes and transfers cuts is particularly evident in the case of consumption and consumer confidence. The impact of a cut in transfers on investment is more similar to a cut in government consumption. The overall impact on output growth is more negative than that from a cut in government consumption, but less negative than a tax increase.
Overall, our findings suggest that major fiscal adjustments based upon cuts in government consumption, excluding transfers, are much less costly than tax-based fiscal adjustments in terms of foregone output growth. In fact, cuts in government consumption seem to have virtually no costs in terms of output losses on average–a result which probably balances some recessionary and some expansionary cases. Tax-based fiscal adjustments are very costly in terms of output losses. Cuts in government transfers seem to lie somewhere in between the extremes of government consumption and tax increases, though they are closer to tax hikes. Perhaps the smaller effect of transfers cuts relative to tax increases may have to do with a supply-side response, but more research is needed on this point. Regarding which tax increases are more costly, direct and indirect taxes seem to have overall similar effects, though this is also an issue to be explored further.
We also find that the differences in tax-based and expenditure-based fiscal adjustments cannot be explained by different responses of monetary policy, although the evidence points to a slightly more expansionary response of monetary policy in the case of expenditure-based adjustments, perhaps because tax-based adjustments tend to raise prices, while expenditure-based adjustments tend to lower them, or because central banks believe that expenditure-based adjustments are more long lasting and credible.
Our findings seem to hold for fiscal adjustments both before and after the financial crisis. We cannot reject the hypothesis that the effects of the fiscal adjustments, especially in Europe in 2009-13, were indistinguishable from previous ones. They certainly show the same relative patterns between tax-based and expenditure-based adjustment. This does not mean, however, that expenditure-based and tax-based plans have identical effects during periods of economic expansion and contraction. This question, in the context of disaggregated fiscal plans, remains hard to answer.
1. F. Giavazzi and M. Pagano, "Can Severe Fiscal Contractions Be Expansionary? Tales of Two Small European Countries," in O. J. Blanchard and S. Fischer, eds., NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 5, 1990, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1990, pp. 75-122. ↩
2. A. Alesina and S. Ardagna, "Large Changes in Fiscal Policy: Taxes versus Spending," in J.R. Brown, ed., Tax Policy and the Economy, 24, Chicago, Illinois: The University of Chicago Press, 2010, pp. 35-68. ↩
3. See in particular the following: F. Giavazzi and M. Pagano, "Can Severe Fiscal Contractions Be Ex-pansionary? Tales of Two Small European Countries," in Olivier J. Blanchard and Stanley Fischer, eds., NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 5, 1990, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1990, pp. 75–122; F. Giavazzi and M. Pagano, "Non-Keynesian Effects of Fiscal Policy Changes: International Evidence and the Swedish Experience", NBER Working Paper No. 5332, November 1995, and Swedish Economic Policy Review, 3, 1996, pp. 67-103; F. Giavazzi, T. Jappelli, and M. Pagano, "Searching for Non-Linear Effects of Fiscal Policy: Evidence from Industrial and Developing Countries," NBER Working Paper No. 7460, January 2000, and European Economic Review, 44, 2000, pp. 1259-90; A. Alesina and S. Ardagna, "Tales of Fiscal Adjustments," Economic Policy, 13(27), 1998, pp. 487-545; and A. Alesina and S. Ardagna, "The Design of Fiscal Adjustments," in J.R. Brown, ed., Tax Policy and the Economy, 27, Chicago, Illinois: The University of Chicago Press, 2013, pp. 35-68. ↩
4. See A. Alesina, C. Favero, and F. Giavazzi, "The Output Effect of Fiscal Consolidation Plans," NBER Working Paper No. 18336, August 2012, and Journal of International Economics, 2015, forthcoming; A. Alesina, O. Barbiero, C. Favero, F. Giavazzi, and M. Paradisi, "Austerity in 2009-13," NBER Working Paper No. 20827, January 2015, and Economic Policy, 2015, forthcoming; and A. Alesina, O. Barbiero, C. Favero, F. Giavazzi, and M. Paradisi, "The Output Effect of Fiscal Adjustment Plans: Disaggregating Taxes and Spending," 2015, mimeo, http://www.bde.es/f/webbde/INF/MenuHorizontal/SobreElBanco/Conferencias/2015/Archivos/26_1140A_GIAVAZZI_PAPER.pdf. ↩
5.C.D. Romer and D.H. Romer, "The Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Changes: Estimates Based on a New Measure of Fiscal Shocks," American Economic Review, 100(3), 2010, pp. 763–801. ↩
6. C.D. Romer and D.H. Romer, "The Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Changes: Estimates Based on a New Measure of Fiscal Shocks," American Economic Review, 100(3), 2010, pp. 763-801. ↩
7. P. Devries, J. Guajardo, D. Leigh, and A. Pescatori, "A New Action-based Dataset of Fiscal Consolidations," IMF Working Paper No. 11/128, 2011. ↩
8. J. Guajardo, D. Leigh, and A. Pescatori, "Expansionary Austerity? International Evidence," Journal of the European Economic Association, 12(4), 2014, pp. 949-68. ↩
9. A. Alesina and S. Ardagna, "Large Changes in Fiscal Policy: Taxes versus Spending," in J.R. Brown, ed., Tax Policy and the Economy, vol. 24, 2010, pp. 35-68. ↩
10. A. Alesina, C. Favero, and F. Giavazzi, "The Output Effect of Fiscal Consolidation Plans," NBER Working Paper No. 18336, August 2012, and Journal of International Economics, forthcoming. ↩
11. A. Alesina, O. Barbiero, C. Favero, F. Giavazzi, and M. Paradisi, "Austerity in 2009-13," NBER Working Paper No. 20827, January 2015, and Economic Policy Journal, 2015, forthcoming. ↩
12. This is comparable to the estimates in Romer and Romer, "The Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Changes: Estimates Based on a New Measure of Fiscal Shocks," American Economic Review, 100(3), 2010, pp. 763-801. ↩
13. A. Alesina, O. Barbiero, C. Favero, F. Giavazzi, and M. Paradisi, "Austerity in 2009-13," NBER Working Paper No. 20827, January 2015, and Economic Policy Journal, forthcoming. ↩
14. O. Blanchard and D. Leigh, "Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers," IMF Working Paper No. 13/1, 2013. ↩
15. A. Alesina, O. Barbiero, C. Favero, F. Giavazzi, and M. Paradisi, "The Output Effect of Fiscal Adjustment Plans: Disaggregating Taxes and Spending," 2015, mimeo. http://www.bde.es/f/webbde/INF/MenuHorizontal/SobreElBanco/Conferencias/2015/Archivos/26_1140A_GIAVAZZI_PAPER.pdf. ↩
16. K. Mertens and M.O. Ravn, "The Dynamic Effects of Personal and Corporate Income Tax Changes in the United States," American Economic Review, 103(4), 2013, pp. 1212-47. ↩
17. C. D. Romer and D. H. Romer, "Transfer Payments and the Macroeconomy: The Effects of Social Security Benefit Changes," NBER Working Paper 20087, May 2014. ↩
18. R. Perotti, "It's the Composition: Defense Government Spending is Contractionary, Civilian Government Spending is Expansionary," NBER Working Paper 20179, May 2014. ↩
National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Ave., Cambridge, MA 02138; 617-868-3900; email: firstname.lastname@example.com
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By Melissa Luz T. Lopez, Senior Reporter
FITCH Solutions has downgraded its growth forecast for the Philippines anew, noting that the economy is unlikely to bounce back to a faster pace due to tighter credit conditions and waning investor appetite.
In a report, the global research firm said the Philippine economy will likely grow by just 6.2% this year, down from 6.3% previously following a slower expansion logged during the third quarter.
Philippine gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 6.1% in July-September, easing from the 6.2% climb during the second quarter to mark the slowest pace in three years.
This brought the nine-month tally to a 6.3% expansion, well below the government's downward-revised 6.5-6.9% target.
"We believe that the Philippine economy will struggle to reverse its waning growth momentum over the coming quarters owing to tighter monetary conditions, deepening trade tensions, as well as a declining business environment," Fitch Solutions said in a report on Friday.
The research unit said household spending will likely remain "weak" as rising interest rates, sustained elevated inflation and declining consumer confidence.
Yields have been on an uptrend following a series of tightening moves from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP), which has raised benchmark rates by a total of 150 basis points (bp) since May. This comes as the central bank sought to rein in inflation expectations, just as consumer prices have been trending beyond the 2-4% target band.
Inflation has averaged 5.1% during the first 10 months, marked by a nine-year peak at 6.7% tallied in September and October. In turn, Fitch Solutions expects another 25bp rate hike from the central bank before the year ends.
Authorities said private consumption growth cooled to 5.2% year-on-year in the third quarter from 5.9% during the April-June period. The Philippines has long been a consumption-driven economy.
"The rising interest rate environment is likely to dampen consumer spending," the report read, noting that Fitch Solutions also sees another 75bp worth of rate increases next year.
"The slowdown in private consumption and investment growth was in line with our view, and we continue to expect both GDP components to perform poorly over the coming quarters."
Growth is seen to ease further in 2019 at 6.1%, well below the state's 7-8% goal.
Prospects may also be dimming for investments due to dampened business confidence in light of an uncertain tax environment. The research firm cited the Philippines' slip in ranking under the World Bank's latest Ease of Doing Business index to the 124th rank from 113th previously.
Contents of the second tax reform package, dubbed the Tax Reform for Attracting Better and High-Quality Opportunities bill, is also creating uncertainty for investors pending its passage in Congress.
"Risks to our growth forecasts are weighted to the downside," the analysts said. "Deepening trade tensions between China and the US are weighing on global risk sentiment, and a faster-than-expected rate hiking cycle in the US could exacerbate a possible capital flight to safety, weighing on foreign investment further."
Investment-led growth boosted the economy last quarter, the Department of Finance said, with its share rising to 26% of GDP from 23.6% a year ago. The agency said the passage of remaining tax reforms will maintain investment growth, together with reforms to improve the local business climate and by easing limits on foreign participation.