Millions of credit-card customers can't pay their bills - <AUTHOR> https://www.wsj.com/articles/millions-of-credit-card-customers-cant-pay-their-bills-lenders-are-bracing-for-impact-11587807001 <comment><USER2> I drove by Target today and the lot was full. Target doesn't have any kind of social distancing policy so it was business as usual, no lines or anything. Literally across the street is my friend's small restored furniture store, which is closed because it's non-essential. It's a husband-wife who own it, and even with the loans they just got they told me they've only got another 3-4 weeks until their business will collapse, another 3-4 weeks after that and their personal finances will be in serious trouble. Sure they'd like to be in a better financial position in the first place, but that's kinda the life you choose when you restore furniture as a mom-n-pop I guess. I respect them either way.

The question many small business owners (and their employees) are now asking is "Non-essential for who???" Because for millions of people, it's as essential as it gets.

I started out believing lockdowns were necessary, but I've found myself drifting towards believing this is all complete madness, that politicians have failed to draw any distinction between reasonable health precautions in problem areas and unreasonable blanket policies that impose draconian, permanently life-altering measures on everyone. Maybe we really need the scalpel approach rather than the nuclear bomb. And in doing so it's clear that we're inadvertently creating much longer-lasting problems.

<comment><USER3> The businesses are not what's essential. The _people_ are.

When trying to come up with a policy that will help the most, start from first principles, like "people are what we care about; businesses and the economy are there to serve us, not the other way around."

Because...yes, if we don't reopen everything, millions of people are going to be in serious financial trouble.

But if we _do_ reopen everything, millions of people are going to be in serious medical trouble.

If we get tens to hundreds of thousands of people dying in the span of a few weeks, how do you think _that_ will affect the economy? Even leaving aside the psychological _and human_ toll.

Provide for the _people_. Make sure the truly essential workers (the ones needed to keep us fed, clothed, healthy, and with the lights on) have what they need to be safe and healthy themselves, and then _keep_ the rest of us fed, clothed, and healthy, and keep the lights on, out of the government's purse.

<comment><USER4> > keep the rest of us fed, clothed, and healthy

The problem is that merely _being_ locked down is quite _unhealthy_ in many ways. As anecdote, I'm drinking about twice as much, not exercising at all, canceling dental cleanings, and wouldn't go into a medical setting short of something obviously life-threatening. (And indeed, many people with stroke symptoms aren't going to the ER right away, which can easily be life- changing.)

One essay I just saw made the likely-valid point that the risk here is almost entirely concentrated in the population that's 60+ (and a few younger people with unusual medical conditions).

If so, a better plan than shotgunning the entire economy for a year or two may well be to figure out how to specifically protect those who are vulnerable, and let things run their course with the rest.

In any case, if something _cannot_ go on, it _will not_. No way we'll be locked down in a year, no matter what pie-in-the-sky handouts are distributed.

<comment><USER5> You're very right, being locked down is unhealthy. But isn't the US in an 'advised' lockdown state only? Why not go out (alone) and exercise?

Currently in Brussels, where things look quite bad statistically speaking. However, parks are full of people running/exercising/stretching and even walking just to enjoy the sun.

<comment><USER6> Nationally, yes it's "advised" because the Federal government can't demand it short of martial law or similar.

That said, most States _have_ required lockdowns or shelter in place.

In the US system of federalism, the state governors+legislators have much more control over what happens in their state than the President+Congress.

</comment></comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER7> I thought it was incredibly callous for CC companies to send me emails saying "we're there for you" without any mention of even the tiniest drop in interest rates, instead mentioning their stupid mobile app or something.

<comment><USER8> Exactly. I tried to do some research into the current credit cards rates and found a spread of numbers but around 20%[1] seems like a reasonable guess. The current prime rate is 3.25%[2].

I'm not saying that credit card companies should lend at prime, but I feel that reducing rates for existing balances to 10 or even 15% could make a huge difference to a lot of people.

American Express sent me an email a month ago talking about it being a "difficult time" and nothing is more important to them than their customers "health and safety" but all they can offer is telling me that call volumes are really high so I should manage my account online. That's not really that helpful, sorry!

[1] [https://www.thebalance.com/average-credit-card-interest- rate...](https://www.thebalance.com/average-credit-card-interest-rate-4772408) [2] [https://moneywise.com/a/what-is-the-prime- rate](https://moneywise.com/a/what-is-the-prime-rate)

<comment><USER9> Unless the government steps up to backstop the risk, there's no reason for those rates to go down. But the Fed's been doing some pretty interesting things, so maybe they'll start buying securitized credit card debt.

<comment><USER10> Can card companies raise rates on existing debt? Seems like a spiral where intervention is the best option? more defaults -> higher rates to offset risk -> less affordable then more defaults -> repeat

</comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER11> 1\. Millions don't pay off their credit cards regularly, so this could be a headline any month. About half of people are in this boat.

[https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/19/70-percent-of-people-with- cr...](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/19/70-percent-of-people-with-credit-card- debt-cant-pay-it-off-this-year.html)

Obviously, it will be more because of COVID, but the details aren't yet available.

2\. I wish WSJ would just let me pay for the article. I don't read them enough to get a $20 subscription, but would I pay $2 to read that? yes.

<comment><USER12> This post baffles me. Your first point accurately describes this article as misleading/wrong, then in your second point you wish it was easier to pay for their wrong opinions. If I'm paying for news and opinion pieces, it better be the highest quality, and I've never been impressed with the organizations that try to paywall their content, at least not more than other mainstream news organizations.

<comment><USER13> But the article isn't wrong. The article is talking about minimum monthly payments, which _isn't_ happening every month.

Paying for the article would allow the GP to read the article and see that

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER14> 26 million unemployment claims so far and many more to come. Many have not even been paid yet, for example Florida has only paid ~15% of the filed claims. People have no money coming in and very few places are hiring. The government sent 1200 dollar checks to some but not all, many people still have not gotten those. People who did well the last couple of years and have lost their jobs now are not eligible.

We are potentially looking at the very real risk of starvation in this country if this things is stretched out and the federal government continues to limit its direct aid to citizens. States are looking at the very real risk of completely running out of funds to pay unemployment and McConnell has indicated he is fine letting them go bankrupt over it because it weakens the unions.

Rent and Credit cards are just the beginning, Car payments and mortgages are next.

We need a very real UBI that goes to everyone regardless of income to get individuals through this. A UBI also guarantees people have money when this passes to allow for individuals to go out and pump money into businesses trying to stand up again.

Its one thing to fret about the US debt, but at the moment we are looking at the potential for a great depression. When this is all over, mint a few trillion dollar coins and pay it off. If the dollar drops for a while its not necessarily a bad thing.

<comment><USER15> > We are potentially looking at the very real risk of starvation in this > country if this things is stretched out and the federal government continues > to limit its direct aid to citizens.

Very unlikely for the U.S. Food is very cheap, it just happens that prices in the U.S. are inflated because of transportation, branding and the millions of middle men in between. To give you an idea, where I live, 1Kg of pasta costs $0.4 and grains are mostly imported from the US. Rice costs $0.53 and it is imported from Asia.

You can survive on Pasta and vegetables for less than $1, and the U.S. is producing it dirt cheap.

</comment></comment><comment><USER16> the covid-19 situation I think really exposes how mad it is that as a society it's normal if not encouraged to live on debt or one or two paychecks away from being broke. Of course, a lot of people don't make enough to even save much more, but even among more affluent people in particular in the US it seems common to live a lifestyle that just about only works if you're at 100% income.

Just for my own peace of mind, I started saving enough to be without work for a year or so, use a debit card instead of a credit card and rent. Here in Germany, this is more common than in other places, but still, I wouldn't even want to live with constant debt on my shoulders.

<comment><USER17> You don't realize that this economy - levered to the hilt - NEEDS the consumer to spend money they don't have to keep it going. If the American consumer started developing financial discipline starting tomorrow, that's incredibly bearish for stocks. (Of course, that's probably a good thing for the long run)

<comment><USER11> Except that savings for tomorrow would probably end up in the stock market. Otherwise inflation kills them.

So I would be interested to know would happen here.

<comment><USER18> > Except that savings for tomorrow would probably end up in the stock market.

For far lower returns. With reduced demand, there's not much for that extra money to do. To the extent investment drives growth it's when it goes into innovation (R&D) or if businesses have demand but are capital constrained (and I suspect even that's more like _speeding up_ than _creating_ growth, exactly—you just get 5% growth now instead of 2.5% over two years, or whatever). Sure maybe you could spend it on advertising and marketing but all that can do is get us back to "people spend too much".

<comment><USER19> How does one draw the line between necessary marketing/sales expenses and unnecessary ones? Even some of the most "innovative" companies like Apple spend billions on advertising. I don't have an MBA but it seems pretty much impossible to sell new products without an advertising budget.

<comment><USER18> Right but if the premise is "there will be lots of investment because people are spending less and saving more" then all that invested money can't go into marketing or advertising without getting right back to a low-savings society, unless that spending is ineffective. So that leaves R&D I guess since there's not much else for that extra money to do. Plus lower returns on equities.

</comment></comment></comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER20> > They are usually unsecured, which means lenders have little recourse if a > borrower stops paying

This is misleading.

Yes, unsecured credit cards (there also exists secured credit cards which do have an attached collateral) do not have a collateral but stating "lenders have little recourse" is false.

They can collect the debt and make your life a living hell just like the hospital you went to to address your injured elbow charged you $25k for and hounds you to this day, garnishing your wages and putting liens on your property.

> Banks including Citigroup Inc., Discover and Synchrony are shutting down > credit cards that haven't been used in a while or lowering spending limits. > The companies say they were taking these measures before the pandemic as a > way to lessen risk. But those moves could also leave some borrowers without > access to credit just when they need it most.

This is more concerning.

Since a certain class of borrowers are being unable to honor their obligations, other class of borrowers who had opened credit lines, planning ahead, to tap into exactly during such times will now be left without access to that what they had planned for in the past.

This now puts a short squeeze on people who could plow through these hard times and puts them at risk of falling into the class of people who are in absolute duress.

Does not do good to any one.

I would rather have the lenders continue to keep the accounts for borrowers with excellent credit history open and unaffacted.

<comment><USER21> Credit issuers, particularly unsecured credit card issuers, have been calling back lines every time there's even a whiff of an economic downturn since time immemorial. Those who "play the credit card game" have learned, usually through burned hands, to anticipate this.

There's no such thing as a reliable limit through a big issuer. This is doubly true if someone has been chasing CLIs through "luv" (getting credit limit increases by clicking the "request limit increase" button on issuer web sites, often called the "luv button"). The only reliably stable limits are through small issuers who have much tighter rules and a much less intricate risk model.

Also, on this:

> other class of borrowers who had opened credit lines, planning ahead, to tap > into exactly during such times will now be left without access to that what > they had planned for in the past.

> This now puts a short squeeze on people who could plow through these hard > times and puts them at risk

All I can say is absolutely do not rely on credit being there as a backstop. That's what cash savings are for. Yes, it's easy for me to say "just save six months of expenses!" and I'm not trying to call you wrong, so much as get a head start on the next class in the School of Hard Economic Knocks.

The only people who can rely on credit being there are people like that ex- Amazon engineer whose tweet I've been seeing passed around these past couple of weeks. He pulled $250k out of a HELOC on some investment property in Seattle he's been trying to sell, "just to have the cash." He likely already has so much cash or short-term equivalents to his name, that added $250k is less out of need and more out of strategy. That class of investor will always have credit available; most of the rest of us will see it pulled at the worst possible time.

<comment><USER20> The amount of insight and knowledge in your comment is so dense that my single upvote does not do it justice.

My thoughts:

> Credit issuers, particularly unsecured credit card issuers, have been > calling back lines every time there's even a whiff of an economic downturn > since time immemorial

I have an aggregate mid six figure credit line excluding mortgages. Have been through this and the last two recessions.

Never had a $1 drop in CL: I choose who I build realtionships with very closely. Infact, I have had CLIs happen during "good times", without me reaching out . One lender even did a CLI without even notifying me (they usually email or mail you "good news!") - the only reason I noticed is because I like to look at my statements manually every billing period.

There is no Bank of America, Citibank or any of that retail nonsense in my basket of credit mix. Majority of them are in geographically diversified credit unions

Finance 101.

> absolutely do not rely on credit being there as a backstop. That's what cash > savings are for

cash is an asset class but it's extremely expensive and a liability for me.

cash causes me headaches. Even with my 3% APY bank accounts (people seem to believe there are none of them in the US which is untrue!) after effort and inflation, I barely break even.

I have to track it, protect it try and ensure it does not loose value too much. I have to visit local branches when I need to take it out or deposit it.

Credit is awesome. In the U.S., it's really cheap and consumer lines of credit have extremely strong protections.

I purchased a $500 phone from Best Buy because they had a special promotion that required me to purchase their gift cards. They would not allow me to purchase gift cards using my premier credit card, so I used cash.

A year later, the phone died. I had 0 recourse.

Had I purchased it with my Amex, all I would have to pay is a $50 processing fee, if at that. I would, at worst, get refunded by Amex, the fair value of the phone at that time.

In my few interactions with Amex, I wouldn't be surprised if they just credited me $500.

<comment><USER22> > _Even with my 3% APY bank accounts (people seem to believe there are none of > them in the US which is untrue!)_

I'm one of those people. I have an account that started at 2.2%, and is currently earning 1.8% or so. I thought that was the best I could do without locking up my savings in long-term CDs.

Can you share any info on this?

<comment><USER20> I can but that exposes me to clear liability that will be hard to argue against (and I'm easily reachable both by you and your attorney) as I am also a shareholder at those institutions and hence have a clear selfish motive in suggesting that you use them even if they later cause you harm.

So I think I have a reasonable suggestion for you: look into credit unions that are looking to hand out business loans.

In my experience, it's less risky than investing directly into said business (honestly that's where you make the most money!) and you're backed by the NCUA upto $250k per account

</comment></comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER23> The biggest issue is state level bureaucracy related to unemployment.

Part of the stimulus bill increases unemployment benefits by $600/week. For a lot of lower wage earners this is probably more than they currently make.

If people are having difficulty paying it's because their unemployment application is stuck in some office and not being processed fast enough. A totally preventable crisis.

</comment><comment><USER24> Just an anecdote here, but my main spending account and auto loan is with a small local credit union (SFCU). They have been very helpful and proactive in terms of helping people with reduced cash flow. They are deferring payments on auto loans, home loans, and removing minimum payments due on credit cards [1]. Of course, interest accrues. They're not trying to go under too. But I did appreciate the proactiveness. They reached out to members via email and phone as soon as the shelter in place orders started in our area.

It often pays to do business locally with smaller businesses for situations just like this. They're a bit more "human".

[1] [https://www.sfcu.org/covid19/](https://www.sfcu.org/covid19/)

</comment><comment><USER5> Can someone summarize the average interest-rates banks charge for credit-card debt?

I heard some wild numbers a few months ago but they might be outdated.

<comment><USER25> Double digit percentages. 15-20%. Sometimes more.

Interest charged to people who do not pay down balances is the primary way the banks behind CCs (not Visa, mc, etc, they just take tiny slices of every transaction) have a business.

<comment><USER26> It's crazy to see the interest rates we've come to accept as a society considering that "interest" (otherwise known as "usury") has been considered illegal in many periods throughout history.

<comment><USER27> That's a perfectly reasonable interest rate. Imagine you borrow $1000 at an APR of 15% and for some reason decide to only pay $22 per month. You have 68 months to pay the full amount back until you pay $500 in interest. If you had decided to pay $100 per month you'd pay $75 in interest in total.

Meanwhile payday lenders will let you borrow $1000 for 3 months. You have to pay back $500 each month and if you can't pay it off within three months you will have to pay additional fees. That is basically a 500% APR.

There is no need to hate credit card companies. They are doing a perfectly fine job. They obviously have higher rates than regular loans simply because buying something with your credit card doesn't require approval from the company. When you apply for a regular loan it is often tied to a specific purchase that can be repossessed or directly increases your income and therefore ability to repay the loan.

</comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER28> [http://archive.is/TJciy](http://archive.is/TJciy)

<comment><USER29> Getting a cloudflare dns resolution error for some reason.

<comment><USER21> Archive.is operators object to Cloudflare not passing eDNS information and so block resolution through Cloudflare.

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER30> [https://archive.md/TJciy](https://archive.md/TJciy)

</comment><comment><USER31> Paywalled.

Not judging articles behind paywalls, but it would be nice to have an easy indicator on HN for such articles.

[Paywall] Millions of Credit-Card Customers Can't Pay Their ...

^ would have been a more useful title.

<comment><USER32> I completely agree, and can't understand the downvotes. I've felt this way for years at HN, and a paywalled article is a great way to get me to just hit 'back', or open it in Private mode and read it anyway.

If there's a tag at least I'd know to avoid it to start. As many others have mentioned, there's no pay-per single article option, this would obviously be a very different situation if that was the case.

<comment><USER33> It's because because this is an extremely well-worn topic and the comments on it are always the same.

The answer is: if there's a workaround, it's ok. Users usually post workarounds in the thread. This is in the FAQ at [https://news.ycombinator.com/newsfaq.html](https://news.ycombinator.com/newsfaq.html) and there's more explanation here: [https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=false&qu...](https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=false&query=by%3Adang%20paywalls&sort=byDate&type=comment). Note [https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=10178989](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=10178989) from 5 years ago.

Paywalls suck, but HN would suck worse without NYT, WSJ, Economist, etc., articles, so workarounds are what we're stuck with until the publication industry gets its act together the way music eventually did.

<comment><USER34> Friendly suggestion: paywalled articles should be somehow flagged explicitly in the title so the community can collectively decide how to treat them and users can choose not to click into or comment on them. The origin domain isn't enough information and the current approach is immensely, needlessly frustrating.

</comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER35> This is very simple. If you have tests you can reduce the lockdown. We don't have tests so we are faced with the choice of personal health vs economic health.

Why don't we have tests? Other countries have tests.

<comment><USER36> We have tests, but we waste them all on billionaires and senators and basketball players even though testing them doesn't help them or anyone else even slightly...

</comment></comment><comment><USER37> We really are whistling past the graveyard on our economy. Everyone repeats "shut it down save lives" but completely ignores the consequences of broad unemployment. Historically this is the kind of precursor to very violent political changes, and how a lot of very violent and evil people come to power.

Just as much as we need to protect lives, we can't drive desperate people up against a wall. Everyone in a WFH Silicon Valley bubble should pop their heads out and over to middle America for awhile to see how bad it's quickly becoming.</comment>


Fasten Your Seatbelts: Google's Driverless Car Is Worth Trillions - <AUTHOR> http://www.forbes.com/sites/chunkamui/2013/01/22/fasten-your-seatbelts-googles-driverless-car-is-worth-trillions/3/

<comment><USER2> skip the google part, they have built it but dont seem interested in commercialising it.

komatsu trucks are commercially running hauling in Rio Tinto Mines in Australia

This year toyota, audi, and other car makers would be showcasing their own versions.

google is not manufacturing cars, it has to acquire a company like toyota to monetize in multi billions, which will not be the case.</comment>


How not to die - <AUTHOR> http://www.paulgraham.com/die.html <comment><USER3> I am finishing up my PhD and I have a very direct analogy to what PG mentions.

There are multiple research groups with different success rates and what I have noticed is groups with extremes are not doing that well. By extremes I mean professors who try to micromanage and get a daily update and professors who do not care at all. In my group, we have a biweekly meeting for everyone to present what they did in 2 weeks time which makes all of us work hard but on our own terms. I think incorporating similar things in education/research will be very helpful in the long run.

Good article PG!!

</comment><comment><USER4> I'd read that before, but I think I needed it today.

Maybe someone should set up a cron job to submit that talk to HN every 3 months.

<comment><USER5> Or to randomly choose one of PG's essays every month.

This particular one was last posted almost two years ago.

<comment><USER4> Startup idea: present the user with 8 adjectives and ask them to pick the one which best describes their mood, then give them an optimal article to read as they start their day.

We'd all be more successful if we could capitalize on our good moods and not let our bad moods drag us down for long.

<comment><USER6> I don't know if that would be a good startup idea, but it would make for a nice side project to create on a weekend.

<comment><USER7> Which is exactly how many startups are born.

</comment></comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER8> I've started 4 companies. 3 died (but not badly) one petered out and I sold the core tech for a pretty decent figure (so I call it a semi-success even though it was the least likely to succeed)

I dont know: I came to HN _after_ I began hacking and doing startups (I never even called them startups till I got here) and my assumption was that 99% failed anyway as a part of the process of learning.

I figure you have to either be super lucky (and make a Twitter, Facebook or Google hit) or you have to fail hard a few times before eventually succeeding. I chatted to some London VC's the other week and they said they trusted founders from previously failed startups a lot more than newbies - <USER2> because they had learned many of the hard lessons and wouldn't then make them at the crucial moment their company could be worth something 6 figures or more.

<comment><USER9> I don't know anybody that 'scored' that didn't fail a couple of times first. The ones that hit a home-run the first time out are the ones that you hear about all the time but they're the exceptions.

It's not a rule, but hard work definitely pays off - most of the time.

</comment></comment><comment><USER10> So, how are octopart and wufoo doing? (They both seem to be around, still. Have they been in the news, lately?)

<comment><USER11> They're both doing well, actually. Both are profitable. Wufoo remarkably so, but they've had longer.

<comment><USER10> wufoo's demo video peters out just where it gets interesting to me, and it confuses me about their value proposition: once you've got the form made, what do you do with it? Do they just give you the html and point you to where the URL for the CGI ought to go?

<comment><USER12> You're right in that creating a a form in Wufoo is only the beginning. At that point, you can start sharing the link to the form or embedding it on a web page to start collecting data, leads or even payments. You can do all this from our Code Manager: <http://wufoo.com/docs/code-manager/>

Built into every form is also the ability to subscribe to the incoming data in real time to your email inbox, mobile device via SMS or your RSS Newsreader.

We also have a robust report building feature that can help you visualize and export your data so you can better understand the information you've collected.

You can learn more about all these different steps in our other video tutorials at <http://wufoo.com/docs/getting-started/>

<comment><USER10> Thanks for the explanation.

</comment></comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER13> I fear there may be less to this than meets the eye.

It reminds me of a foolproof recipe for (human) immortality, which I think I read in a book by Raymond Smullyan. It goes something like this: every day you say "I will say this sentence again tomorrow". If you _always keep that promise_ , then you are assured of never dying.

The point, of course, is that "if X, then Y" doesn't mean that by doing X you can ensure Y, even if on the face of it X is something under your control.

Similarly: yes, indeed, if your company continues interacting with PG and other Y-Combinator-funded companies, then it will not die -- because if it dies, it will no longer be able to have those interactions.

<comment><USER11> _Similarly: yes, indeed, if your company continues interacting with PG and other Y-Combinator-funded companies, then it will not die -- because if it dies, it will no longer be able to have those interactions._

But that's false. People don't lose the ability to email us once their company dies.

<comment><USER13> The companies no longer have that ability, even though the individuals do.

Don't get me wrong; I think "keep doing _something_ and stay in touch" is an excellent piece of advice for someone doing something difficult where failure is strongly correlated with losing motivation.

But I wonder whether you're overestimating the causal role of demotivation here. Toy model: a startup has some kind of "health score" which varies according to exogenous events; "motivation" is some function of health and d(health)/dt, which is small when the startup is unhealthy and getting healthier; the startup dies if its health goes negative. In this model, motivation has _no_ causal role, it's a pure epiphenomenon; but I bet you'll find that startups that die typically have very poor motivation shortly before their demise, and that poor motivation is a good short-term predictor of failure.

Of course, this is only a ridiculous toy model; in reality motivation clearly does have causal effects of its own, but it's also clearly affected by outside causes that themselves have an effect on the success of a startup. An observed correlation between demotivation and death is only weak evidence that demotivation is the underlying problem more than it's a symptom of having no customers, no money, technical problems you can't solve, etc.

(Doubtless you have more evidence than that correlation, having seen lots of startups succeed and fail.)

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER14> Do not go gentle into rewrite / Rage, rage against the dying of the site.

/me ducks

</comment><comment><USER15> This ranks right up there with Steve Job's Stanford speech.

It was even more powerful when pg actually delivered it. I wish a video from that night's dinner existed.

<comment><USER16> The part I found most useful is where he quotes Paul Buchheit, and about pleasing that first small set of users. He doesn't tell you where to find them, but at least once you've found them, you can hang on to that through thick and thin to protect your morale (given that morale is what motivates founders not to quit)

</comment></comment><comment><USER16> the previous discussion when it was last submitted.

<http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48294>

<comment><AUTHOR> I thought it was relevant (and far enough away time-wise) for a repost, given the news from SnapTalent today.

<comment><USER17> [http://img.skitch.com/20090818-ca7b431u5urtm7rpdh1ag7uwnx.jp...](http://img.skitch.com/20090818-ca7b431u5urtm7rpdh1ag7uwnx.jpg)

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER18> This post really came at the right time for me. Such a moral boost. I created and is currently operating a startup in orange county, ca. I am also in the middle of a divorce. So to sum it up: Though times. Personal advise: If you believe your idea can provide value to clients, end-users, or to the community as a whole: Never ever give up. It will eventually pay off.

</comment><comment><USER19> Sorry I think the part about starting up other things is ill-advised.

TWITTER WAS A SIDE PROJECT!

<comment><USER20> Side-projects are always confusing because the answer to "Should you do a side project?" is always "Yes - if that side project will eventually become your main project." Unfortunately, it's almost never possible to tell that a priori. So it always comes out as "You should do side projects, except in the cases where you shouldn't", which isn't terribly helpful.

</comment></comment><comment><USER21> Am I the only one that thought PG was going to come out as an extropian?

</comment><comment><USER22> I thought it was customary to include the year at the end of old/reposts.

</comment><comment><USER23> What if the economy is a shitstorm? I'm not talking about right now, either; I'm talking about an Argentina-style, complete meltdown. What then? Can it become implausible to do well?

<comment><USER11> Obviously there's a point at which it could, yes. If you lose civil order, for example, you lose most of the economy. That's what really destroyed the economy of the Roman Empire. There were of course deeper underlying causes, but the proximate cause was plundering and brigandage.

</comment></comment><comment><USER24> I read this whenever we are currently on a down swing on the roller coaster that is a startup.

</comment><comment><USER25> Work hard and never give up. Got it.

<comment><USER26> or, work hard and know when to give up. much harder.</comment></comment>


Show HN: I just got my fourth paying b2b client - <AUTHOR> I have a SAAS site where small food producers can create nutrition facts labels online (http://www.menutail.com).  They have to subscribe to a monthly plan to use the service.
However after that first lead, I ran into a problem immediately on how to get more clients.
Farmer's Markets - In Person: The first thing I did was to hit the ground and visit all of the farmer's markets around Southern California.  Luckily there are quite a few here because of the great weather.  But as you can probably see, this yields to a scalability problem where if it is just me, there are only so many leads I can pursue.
From visiting about 5 farmer's markets, I did yield one new client.  But what made the trips worthwhile is I talked with a vendor who won some food award which brought me to their website.  Amazingly, the website had a list of all of the vendors who applied with their e-mail address.
Data scraping: The next thing I proceeded to do is to scrape all of the food award websites which had e-mails on it.  With that I generated my first list of contact e-mails.  I sent e-mails soliciting my product to them, and continued scraping different lists and sending e-mails.
From there I acquired my third and fourth paying clients with pretty minimal work just by sending the e-mails and fielding some questions. <comment><AUTHOR> (More info continued from main thread)

My 2 cents:

\+ If you are starting a b2b saas app, immediately think about how you can generate some e-mail lists to hit. I know it's crude, and we hate getting e-mails, but it can work in outreacing to customers. I actually got a sale not from an e-mail, but from a recommendation from someone who received an e-mail.

\+ Selling a subscription is much different than selling a single product. It may take days up to a month for them to think about their needs and to see if your saas fits their needs. Treat all your leads nicely and help them even if it doesn't get you a sale. They may come back.

\+ I wasn't able to get any leads from LinkedIn groups or connections yet.

\+ Be very upfront about your value proposition in your e-mail to the point where they don't even need to click to view your website. What I found most effective was stating what we do (Nutrition Analysis for $40/month), and attaching a sample pdf so they can see what they are getting.

\+ Still hit the pavement and visit as many clients as possible in person. You may not get a sale, but you may learn information on how to get a sale through other means.

\+ Fiverr ROCKS. There were some sites I needed scraped, and people did it there for a great price.

Next steps:

\+ Currently I am a little overwhelmed in managing all of the client lists and conversations. I'm thinking of investing in a customer relationship management app, or spinning something simple up myself.

\+ I need to move away from the archiac method of sending e-mails through gmail. I already got my gmail account suspended twice. I'm thinking about integrating Mailchimp into the CRM workflow

The first client: [https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=5628779](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=5628779))

<comment><USER2> Congrats on your success! As for GMail, my 2 cents is that it's an unprofessional image to project using anything other than your own domain for email. I use Fastmail with my own domain right from the start on my projects. Get a domain for a year & add it to a 'Professional' Fastmail account & set up an alias. The initial 'Professional' account setup is the expensive part if there is any to be considered expensive. I think it's worth while.

Good luck, however you do it.

<comment><AUTHOR> Thanks! I actually use google apps for domains, so it shows the company domain. But I definitely need a more robust e-mail campaign service as I always seem to be hitting the limits.</comment></comment></comment>


Google, Microsoft, and Big Tech Are Automating the Climate Crisis - <AUTHOR> https://gizmodo.com/how-google-microsoft-and-big-tech-are-automating-the-1832790799 <comment><USER2> On the other hand, one of the arguments against restrictions on Oil & Gas is that it will cost a lot of jobs. If you can automate enough jobs away that the number of jobs lost is irrelevant, people could be more willing to switch to alternatives.</comment>


ArduBee – A micro drone for open source development - <AUTHOR> https://discuss.ardupilot.org/t/ardubee-a-ready-to-fly-micro-drone-for-education-and-swarming/54362 <comment><USER2> Looks cool, it's great to have another good open source ready-to-fly option.

I have some concerns about larger PCB quadcopter designs because I can imagine that fatigue due to flexing on the PCB over long-term use could cause issues with the PCB delaminating or solder joints failing. On the ArduBee particularly, you can see a lot of surface-mount components mounted on the arms. I'd love to read more about any lifetime testing they've done on the PCB.

Of course there's always the risk of just crashing your drone and breaking it, but that's no different than other drone designs!

<comment><USER3> Why would the PCB flex? A quadcopter doesn't have that much of a twisting force being applied to it, no?

<comment><USER4> Fr4 material is basically fiberglass, and at 1.6mm thick it doesn't take much to bend it if it isn't supported. I think the weight of the motors could be an issue.

<comment><USER3> When resting, possibly. In flight, the weight of the battery would probably be the bigger concern, though I think you can get 2mm PCBs.

<comment><USER5> Thanks! this could be a great idea,the 2mm PCB could be an interesting option! We are devoted to 1.6mm PCB since the 5" version that weighs 220g and we haven't had any broken or issue on the PCB piece. The battery is well attached, fixed in 6 well distributed points on the PCB and aligned perfectly in the center of the 4 motors.

<comment><USER3> That's great then, if it works for you that's all that matters. I'm glad you guys are doing this.

</comment></comment></comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER6> Super cool!

Back in 2014 as a senior project in college we built a quadcopter for the BeagleBone: [https://github.com/Rose-Hulman-ROBO4xx/1314-BeagleBone- Quadc...](https://github.com/Rose-Hulman-ROBO4xx/1314-BeagleBone-Quadcopter)

We considered building the entire thing as a PCB, but it was pretty expensive to build one that size, plus we had concerns about its ability to take abuse (we broke a lot of quadcopters, even with our hastily jury rigged test stand.

Our main constraint was price: I think we set a total of $100 (including the BeagbeBone) for all the components, which included the IMU, a cheap VGA camera, motors, battery, etc. Super proud of the laser cut frame as well, though I bet if we had better access to 3D printers back then we could have printed a frame fairly easily.

</comment><comment><USER7> This looks really cool, but tbh when I saw the name _micro_ drone I expected something crazyflie-sized[0] more than this.

Which is not a complaint, by the way! The crazyflie is so small that it becomes quite the limitation in a few ways. Really curious how the slightly larger size of the ArduBee compares in practice - probably has a bit more stability and power.

[0] [https://www.bitcraze.io/products/crazyflie-2-1/](https://www.bitcraze.io/products/crazyflie-2-1/)

[1] [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Square%E2%80%93cube_law](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Square%E2%80%93cube_law)

<comment><USER5> Thank you! Bitcraze is so small and lightweight, but the first version had 3 minutes of flight time. It have brush motors and it's not suited for outdoor. We'll update you about the real flight time asap the new motors arrive. Furthermore, ArduBee will be proposed as a plain board without motors and propellers, to enable every sort of selection and combinations of brushless motors and 3" props, offering full customization for many different approach, you can use top motors or under the base, for max endurance, max payload, max navigation performance or wind disturbance rejection.

</comment></comment><comment><USER8> m5stack, the company which puts esp32 and esp8266 into nice boxes has recently teased a m5stack atom drone (atomfly).

[https://twitter.com/M5Stack/status/1244209693045567488?s=20](https://twitter.com/M5Stack/status/1244209693045567488?s=20)

the m5stack atom is a little esp32 in a box.

[https://m5stack.com/products/atom-lite-esp32-development- kit...](https://m5stack.com/products/atom-lite-esp32-development- kit?variant=31699969507418)

</comment><comment><USER4> I am really excited about the ultrawideband implementation! The technology has been around for a few years now but the interface is quite complex and is hard to get up and running.

The actual ultrawideband devices (decawave) are available on digikey for $10-20 each so if a good open source implementation exists, that would be very exciting for hobby robotic makers.

<comment><USER5> I agree UWB system has good quality positioning, it's not affected by lights or smoke and it's quite cheap. The localization is processed on each Flight Control and it's integrated inside the Arudpilot firmware and passed to the Ardupilot EKF.

</comment></comment><comment><USER9> so is this like the only programmable drone out there? or is this the only one that is open source ? how much something like would cost? anyone have an idea ?

<comment><USER10> No and not even close. Look up Betaflight (racing oriented) and iNav (navigation oriented). Ardupilot is more integration/mission oriented, but it's far from the only game in town.

A small <250g drone is in the $70-$100 price range, although you will also need a $70+ radio transmitter or some heavy hacking to control it. Most of the (hundreds) of supported control boards are not open hardware in the schematics sense, but some are.

The all-in-one PCB integration strategy is cute, but I really don't think it's a great approach from a crash-recovery point of view.

<comment><USER11> I've never built a drone yet but I've tried to do a lot of reading, and I don't understand why everything assumes that you have an R/C transmitter in your hand, and then at some point "throw the switch" and make it autonomous.

Isn't the entire point of these things that they fly themselves? That's why we call them drones and not R/C helis, right?

Why can't I just click "go" on my GUI, and never purchase a TX? Or can I and the distinction just isn't explained in a place that I've found it?

<comment><USER12> I don't know where you got the idea that autonomy is why we call them drones. FPV drones are all analog and they've been around a while.

They assume you have a transmitter, because a majority of non parrot drone users are flying analog.

<comment><USER13> Yeah. There was a time maybe 8-9 years back where at least a section of the hobby tried to push back against the people using the term "drone" for any quadcopter/multirotor, and trying to educate people that only things capable of autonomous flight were "drones", while regular non-autonomous quadcopter really are just RC helicopters.

We lost that fight a long time ago.

(And I'm not even sure we were "right" to be honest. The term "drone" got used back in WW2 era for radio controlled aircraft used for target practice. There sure as hell were not autonomous... [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radioplane_OQ-2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radioplane_OQ-2) )

<comment><USER14> What drones _are_ autonomous? The most well-known ones, used by the US military, aren't autonomous, AFAIK. A in UAV stands for Aerial, not Autonomous.

</comment></comment></comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER15> Very cool idea! Looks like something that will allow prototyping automatic indoor flight on a tight budget. The only thing I don't like about the design is that if you break an ESC (or other component for that matter) then you most likely need to replace the whole thing, which won't be cheap.

I wish this had a bit more processing power (or a raspberry pi add on) so that it could run ROS but that would definitely hurt the flight time.

Couple of years ago there was a prototyping board Snaodragon Flight that came with built-in cameras for optical flow: [https://discuss.ardupilot.org/t/ardubee-a-ready-to-fly- micro...](https://discuss.ardupilot.org/t/ardubee-a-ready-to-fly-micro-drone- for-education-and-swarming/54362/13). I think some people here might find it interesting.

<comment><USER5> Thanks! we are working hard on the best protection+landing, searching for the lightest solution and it will be all around the propellers. We use since 2 years its bigger brother (220g) in a swarm system for choreographies with medium acceleration/speed autonomous navigation, during all the intense flying sessions we had quite some crashes but the harm on the board has been very low.

</comment></comment><comment><USER16> The drone seems nice, I hope we can play with it soon ! I am glad they share some development with open source !

<comment><USER5> Thank you so much khancyr! You are a well-known member in the ardupilot community your support is highly appreciated and if you have ideas or suggestions we would love to have your opinion before closing the new ArduBee prototypes in development

With great excitement we follow the feeback here on HN and we are happy to answer all your questions!

Besides posting here you're all also very much invited to submit your feedback via this google form and contribute with your ideas to the final version of ArduBee before starting the kickstarter: [https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSfSv- mjhigMYmZsG03N...](https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSfSv- mjhigMYmZsG03N8fZ2-TsJQC9cG0GdrETQfmdx_tZYhg/viewform)

</comment></comment><comment><USER17> Can you remove the unnecessary loading screen from your website?</comment>


Twitter flags Trump's tweet AGAIN after White House account reposts it - <AUTHOR> https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8369419/Trump-launches-furious-attack-Twitter-attaching-warning-label-tweet.html <comment><USER2> Clarification:

[https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/12664341539328942...](https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1266434153932894208)</comment>


Source Code for IoT Botnet 'Mirai' Released - <AUTHOR> https://krebsonsecurity.com/2016/10/source-code-for-iot-botnet-mirai-released/ <comment><USER2> Summary of the article:

The botnet that DDoS'ed KrebsOnSecurity last month [peak at 600 Gbps] has been named Mirai and the code source has been publicly released by the author.

Expect the internet to be flooded soon.

</comment><comment><USER3> Hopefully this forces manufacturers to more quickly release firmware updates for existing hardware, and ensure all _future_ devices REQUIRE username/password changes out of the box and when factory reset. One can dream?</comment>


Chinese city gets 'smartphone zombie' walkway - <AUTHOR> https://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-news-from-elsewhere-44383449 <comment><USER2> Reminds me of the led strips on the ground at pedestrian crossings in the Netherlands, added because of people not looking up at the light before crossing: [https://dutchreview.com/news/dutch/smart-crossing-dutch- inve...](https://dutchreview.com/news/dutch/smart-crossing-dutch-invention- smart-phone-traffic-deaths/)

<comment><USER3> I wouldn't jump to any conclusions on that one yet. Both the statement that smartphone use is increasing the number of accidents and that this would be caused by people not looking at traffic lights are somewhat suspect.

<comment><USER4> Especially since I routinely see people simply crossing the street disregarding the traffic lights altogether regardless of smartphone use (here in Eindhoven at least).

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER5> Can paste 低头族专用通道 into Google Image search if you'd like to see more photos of this one.

<comment><USER6> Thank you, made a clicky: [https://www.google.com/search?q=%E4%BD%8E%E5%A4%B4%E6%97%8F%...](https://www.google.com/search?q=%E4%BD%8E%E5%A4%B4%E6%97%8F%E4%B8%93%E7%94%A8%E9%80%9A%E9%81%93&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwinlsLy1sjbAhVBNxQKHcfbA10Q_AUICigB&biw=1567&bih=1078)

(translate.google.com for the phrase is also mildly amusing: "Lower family dedicated channel")

<comment><USER5> "低头族" is a phrase for smartphone addicts, can be translated to something like "a group of people who have their heads down." (Unfortunately Google is translating literally character-by-character instead.)

"Dedicated channel/passage" sounds about right though.

<comment><USER7> Speaking of literal translations, a direct English calque for that would be something like "downheadfolk", or maybe "head-downers".

<comment><USER8> "downheadfolk" sounds perfect, I hope people start using that :).

</comment></comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER9> I actually think this is a great idea. Often in a crowd, I want to either stop and not be run into by people, or I'm rushing and people often obstruct and I have to dodge all of them to make on my way.

Having an actual place to chill out and walk slowly (cellphone or not) would help immensely.

<comment><USER10> I wish they would do this in San Francisco. Or just teach people to step to the curb when they aren't walking on the side"walk".

When I moved here from South Florida 10 years ago I noticed something very different about public customs in SF. People are inconsiderate when it comes to public spaces. In my hometown pedestrians will shoulder check you or pass aggressively close if you take up the sidewalk. It's just fucking rude to hog a public thoroughfare.

In SF people don't give a shit about others around them. They walk down a sidewalk, slowly, 3-4 wide. They stop right in the middle of the sidewalk and peck at their phone. They congregate across the sidewalk outside restaurants and stores. It's almost like a contagious passive-aggressive behavior you pick up after being here long enough.

I still pass people and invade their personal space if they're blocking the sidewalk. It's an innate aggressive behavior that I have to indulge. Hopefully some scooter-pedestrian collisions will fix this shitty behavior.

<comment><USER11> I don't live in the Bay Area, or in the US for that matter, but visited multiple times and the reason for this behavior is that people in the Bay Area are usually more relaxed than in other regions I've been to, like New York or other big and crowded cities, like Bucharest where I live.

IMO it's also "fucking rude" to "shoulder check or pass aggressively close".

I should be able to walk at my own pace and I don't freaking care that you're late somewhere. What can I say, leave earlier, take some other route or get a scooter. Not my problem and whenever I get "shoulder checked" I do get aggressive and I punched somebody once.

<comment><USER12> > I should be able to walk at my own pace

Yet, in doing so inconsiderately, you're denying others the right to do the exact same thing.

> I do get aggressive and I punched somebody once.

Ah, so the problem _is_ you, thanks for confirming.

</comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER13> I believe Chongqing has these before Xi'an did. See [https://www.theguardian.com/world/shortcuts/2014/sep/15/chin...](https://www.theguardian.com/world/shortcuts/2014/sep/15/china- mobile-phone-lane-distracted-walking-pedestrians) from 2014.

</comment><comment><USER14> > It says that cars often come onto the pavement, which is a busy channel for > pedestrians who might not be paying attention to their surroundings.

Uh, what? Cars come on to the...pavement? Do they mean the sidewalk? How is this supposed to work?

<comment><USER13> This is how things are done in China. Cars often come onto the sidewalk because all the parking spots on the street are taken.

<comment> purple-again Interesting, my guess as to why this doesn't fly is the US is a mix of aggressive tow truck companies that prowl every downtown looking for cars to tow as they often get paid per car and the frequency of police that are all too happy to slap a $100-$300 fine on your windshield to help meet their monthly quota.

Either the reality of these two things or the successful perception of them is what would keep me from just rolling up on a sidewalk because I couldn't find parking.

Does China not have fines and/or towing providing individual incentive to behave?

<comment><USER13> China doesn't really have rule of law like the west does. Unless they are doing their once a year crackdown or it is a very important place, you won't get a ticket or get towed.

Some cities are worse than others. Shanghai has much more enforcement than a lesser tier city like Beijing.

</comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER15> > _Phubbing_ is a term coined as part of a campaign by Macquarie Dictionary to > describe the habit of snubbing someone in favour of a mobile phone.

<comment><USER16> I've been using _phombie_ in my head for quite some time now.

<comment><USER17> I think 'smombie'¹ is gradually catching on.

1: [https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/smombie](https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/smombie)

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER18> While I find it interesting from a safety/convenience perspective, I also can't help but see WALL-E becoming more and more real

<comment><USER19> Yeah

How hard it is to take your eyes of your phone to be a human being and pay attention to what matters?

</comment></comment><comment><USER20> I want an app that warns me when I'm about to hit something/someone. Autopilot for pedestrians.

<comment><USER21> You've been give a free 'app' to do just that, your eyes and a brain.

</comment></comment><comment><USER22> So what is the next? A dedicated lane for "texting drivers"? Come on. People. Stop this nonsense.

</comment><comment><USER23> Eventually one of these walkways will have to cross a road. Do they have an alarm or something that alerts the phone users to actually look up before they cross?!

</comment><comment><USER24> This is totally hilarious and actually a pretty damn good idea!

</comment><comment><USER25> New York needs these...

</comment><comment><USER26> [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VASywEuqFd8](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VASywEuqFd8)</comment>