8.9 earthquake hits Japan - <AUTHOR> http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Quakes/usc0001xgp.php <comment><USER2> I'm still feeling shakes every few minutes. It's like living in a house on a block of jello. Long rolling waves. I'm in central Tokyo and our china cabinet was shaken pretty badly:

[http://www.flickr.com/photos/poswald/5516954100/in/photostre...](http://www.flickr.com/photos/poswald/5516954100/in/photostream/)

I know some people up in sendai that I'm a bit worried about.

<comment><USER3> I'm feeling shakes every 20 minutes or so; one of the earthquake alerts on my phone actually preceded the shaking by about 10 seconds. My body's so used to the shaking that it always thinks it's shaking -- I set up a bottle of water to look at just so I don't go insane.

11:30 pm JST and I'm still feeling quakes.

<comment><USER4> To verify your sanity: [http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Quakes/qu...](http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_big.php)

Some of the later quakes were als closer to Tokyo compared to the big one.

<comment><USER5> The map view helps to visualize the intense chain reaction after shocks (some north of 6.0) that have been set off. [http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Maps/10/1...](http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Maps/10/145_40.php)

</comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER6> This is what I like about HN. This isn't a particularly "hacker" story, but the perspective here is unique.

On the main stream media, I'll get a couple of statistics and video, then an empty comment about "loved ones trying to make sense of this senseless tragedy".

On HN, I get the facts, but both broader and deeper, from the geological nature of the quake to the effect on other locales. And I get real, unfiltered perspective from those involved -- without the bogus posturing for the human interest feel.

<comment><USER7> Now imagine a neurotypical person reading this comment. What do you think they'd say?

<comment><USER8> You know, I'm really not sure what they'd say Florin. What do _you_ think they'd say?

<comment><USER7> Uh... are you asking me to... hm... exercise my... um... empathy?

<comment><USER9> An _individual_ neuro typical person might show a slightly higher curiosity about what I cynically call the "disaster/tragedy porn" of the coverage.

On _average_ however disaster porn is the _lowest_ common denominator.

Do not paint all individuals with the brush created by looking at the average. Just because the big networks seek the maximum number of viewers does not mean _every_ viewer particularly strongly prefers that kind of coverage.

</comment></comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER10> Red Cross and others will likely be jumping to the aide of those who have been affected by this disaster.

If you have a website, please consider adding a message and link to the Red Cross donation website or the link to the donation page of any other website.

To get it up ASAP, I've used the HelloBar (<http://www.hellobar.com>) on my site. You can see a working version of it at <http://www.webdesigncompany.net> but really any way that grabs attention would be a good way.

PS: I'm not associated with the HelloBar product but I've sent them an email requesting that they allow those who want to use their product to participate to get an invite to their beta. Hopefully they'll reply here soon.

If you don't want to setup an account or don't have an invite yet, you could copy/paste the following code:

      <script type="text/javascript" src="//www.hellobar.com/hellobar.js"></script>
      <script type="text/javascript">
        new HelloBar(3823,9104);
      </script>

The text and link will never change.

<comment><USER11> I tried adding this to my tumblr, but the hello bar unfortunately conflicts with the tumblr controls at the top right (it gets pushed down). Not sure how to resolve that. :/

<comment><USER12> You can change the positing setting to cover page content. Here's an example: <http://www.arookiemistake.com/>

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER13> I just talked to my parents in Hawaii, there's a tsunami warning for 3 am HST. I reminded my dad to sandbag the doors of his restaurant in Waikiki (Vit's Hawaiian Steakhouse) before he closes for the night.

It's just outside of the "tsunami zone" in Waikiki, so I know my dad will probably be working until the police make him evacuate. He did that on the last tsunami warning, and Vit's was pretty much the only restaurant open for several blocks. There was a line out of the door, haha.

<comment><USER14> Do they shut off the warnings at some point, or do they have to listen to this (<http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IfZkdIVcfEA>) for the next 5 hours?

<comment><USER13> Haha, if I remember correctly they sound them when they issue a warning, then they sound them again something like an hour before it will hit and then maybe again after that. It happens enough that it's well coordinated, usually there are police on Kalanianaole Highway making sure everyone heads up into the valleys up until about 15 minutes before it's supposed to hit.

<comment><USER13> Ok, according to my parents the sirens are going off every hour.

</comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER15> An interesting thing I noticed was that all cell phones were completely useless for a pretty long time following the quake. That's normal, but one difference this time, compared with several years ago, is that most people I know no longer have a landline phone at home. People were queuing up for like 20 minutes to use the one old green plastic coin-op pay phone accross the street.

At first, I didn't think to use a phone, since I was sitting at my desk and email worked normally. I could email a colleague in a different building back and forth in neartime while the quakes were happening. About 15 minutes later it occurred to me to try my (naz)iPhone and see if it was useful. It was not-- could not make or receive calls, and the test text message I sent did not arrive in a timely manner (took more than 30 minutes).

Just as a data point.

<comment><USER16> Isn't that strange ? I mean cable should be more easily broken than airwaves, no ? Is it because the landlines in Japan are designed to resist and the cell phone tower got power disruption ?

<comment><USER17> It's because everyone in Japan started sending SMSes to everyone they knew practically before the shaking stopped and that DOSed the network. This happens fairly regularly (e.g. for a few minutes after midnight on New Years, when a large portion of Japanese people send well wishes within the same 15 second window).

<comment><USER18> From my experiences in Germany, SMSes send around midnight New Year did sometimes take several hours to arrive.

<comment><USER19> In Brazil the SMS network stop working during Carnival celebrations. You can't talk due to loud music and everybody is trying to meet their friends.

</comment></comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER20> It was crazy scary, and I was all the way down in Nagoya. There doesn't seem to be too much damage in Miyagi (where the earthquake was) but some fires broke out apparently.

Luckily, it seemed to be a long, hard earthquake rather than a short hard earthquake, which means that buildings are able to withstand the shaking better. The shaking went on for about 3 minutes here, and there were some after shocks that lasted for about a minute.

The Great Hanshin Earthquake was only a 7.2, and it was much more destructive.

<comment><USER21> It's probably also deep. Deep earthquakes do less damage. But still, 8.9, that's almost 100 times bigger than a 7.

<comment><USER22> Closer to 80 times stronger than a hundred, but yeah definitely deep.

<comment><USER23> From Wikipedia:

 _The energy release of an earthquake, which closely correlates to its destructive power, scales with the 3⁄2 power of the shaking amplitude. Thus, a difference in magnitude of 1.0 is equivalent to a factor of 31.6 ( = (101.0)(3 / 2)) in the energy released; a difference in magnitude of 2.0 is equivalent to a factor of 1000 ( = (102.0)(3 / 2) ) in the energy released.[2]_

<comment><USER24> How does energy scale with distance from epicenter?

<comment><USER25> Probably goes down by r^2

However earthquakes may be "flat", in which case it's by r (i.e. r^1). It's probably somewhere in between those.

<comment><USER24> Wouldn't it go down by r^2 if the earthquake is flat, and by r^3 if it's not?

<comment><USER21> No. A circle with 2X the radius has 2X the diameter, thus the energy will be cut in half.

Unless you also expect a linear attenuation, due to energy loss through the bedrock.

</comment></comment></comment></comment></comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER26> [http://japan.person- finder.appspot.com/?small=yes&lang=e...](http://japan.person- finder.appspot.com/?small=yes&lang=en)

Google's response. Seriously cool.

<comment><USER27> Come on folks, this should be on top of the page.

</comment></comment><comment><USER28> And there's already a growing Wikipedia article on the earthquake: <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Sendai_earthquake>

<comment><USER29> WTF - That article states ___6,000,000_ __SIX MILLION deaths?

Can this be accurate? It reiterated what I heard on the news regarding passenger trains missing due to the Tsunami - but 6MM???

EDIT: Looks like wiki-trolling...

From CNN:

 _The official death toll stood at 137, with 539 injured and 351 missing, according to Kyodo, citing police, but that death toll seemed almost certain to rise -- from 200 to 300 bodies have been found in the coastal city of Sendai alone, Kyodo reported. It said the death toll is likely to surpass 1,000._

<comment><USER21> Death toll from disasters is always low to start. Rescue workers on the ground are more worried about digging out the people who survived (at least for the first 48 hours or so).

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER30> Reddit has some useful threads going:

[http://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/g1qpy/massive_79_...](http://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/g1qpy/massive_79_earthquake_in_northeastern_japan/)

[http://www.reddit.com/r/reddit.com/comments/g1qrb/78_earthqu...](http://www.reddit.com/r/reddit.com/comments/g1qrb/78_earthquake_just_happened_in_japan/)

</comment><comment><USER31> This is particularly ill-timed for the rebels in Libya.

<comment><USER18> Are you speaking about the attention economy, or something else?

<comment><USER31> Attention economy.

<comment><USER32> On the other hand it could be good, the international community may have less patience for gaddafi's bullshit.

</comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER3> Maebashi, Gunma here. I was on the 10th floor of city hall when it happened and bookcases were falling all over; we were trying to hold them up and not really getting how serious it was. That was a few hours ago and we're still getting periodic aftershocks. No sea here, so we don't have to worry about tsunami, luckily.

I was fine during the quake itself and now I'm having an attack of the nerves; it still feels like the ground is moving and I can't stop eating, heh.

Malls and grocery stores are closed, so the local convenience stores are being stripped of absolutely everything.

<comment><USER33> I hope you don't try and hold up book-cases in the future (not sure how large they are). But during an earthquake, they could easily crush you.

<comment><USER3> Not big ones -- not even over my shoulders. Just full; we were trying to keep the contents from falling all over.

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER34> Japan has declared a state of emergency because of the failure of the cooling system at one nuclear plant, according to the Associated Press. Officials say there has been no leak of radiation.

Let's hope this does not get any worse than it is right now.

<comment><USER34> US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton says the US Air Force in Japan has transported coolant to the plant. Officials say the facility should be back to normal soon.

That's good news.

<comment><USER25> I was wondering about this. What kind of coolant are they sending? Don't nuclear plants just use water?

<comment><USER35> Depends on the type of plant. Some use more exotic things like molten lead or sodium.

</comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER36> Zynga in japan: [http://a2.sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak- ash4/199150_899666...](http://a2.sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak- ash4/199150_899666149751_9031480_48400618_7787084_n.jpg)

and they are still working apparently

<comment><USER37> I'm in this picture (the blobby looking guy) and yeah we were working under the desks while all of the aftershocks were happening. It was pretty intense as we've been having earthquakes here the last few days and thought it was going to just be another small one. It kept intensifying, however, until we were forced to go under the desks. Definitely a very long 3 minutes.

</comment></comment><comment><USER38> A small plug for my startup. We created a page partnering with the red cross where folks can donate to the relief effort. <http://www.fundly.com/redcrossjapan> From there you can donate or get involved via facebook.

<comment><USER39> Dude, save the startup plugs for later

</comment></comment><comment><USER13> Text message from my parents in Hawaii just now:

"At 11:01 pm we just had a 4.6 earthquake on the big island"

There's also increased seismic activity on some of the volcanoes in the Pacific Northwest (far left link on each row shows latest activity):

<http://www.pnsn.org/WEBICORDER/VOLC/welcome.html>

I'm not a seismologist so I have no idea if that's as gnarly as it looks.

<comment><USER40> Small world. I live in East Hawaii and I felt that. It was from the Volcano, which after erupting for the past few days stopped last night and I guess it started again.

</comment></comment><comment><USER34> The Tsunamis caused by this that might hit Taiwan etc. can be huge (5 to 10 meters). Or then just 10 cm high. How ever it's moving now 800km an hour.

The destruction is terrible ([http://www.dailymotion.com/video/xhj2ge_violent- seisme-d-une...](http://www.dailymotion.com/video/xhj2ge_violent-seisme-d-une- magnitude-de-8-9-au-japon_news#hp-sc-p-1))

I cannot explain in written how sorry I feel for the people living in the area.

<comment><USER41> The tsunami has already arrived in Taiwan - very little effect - I heard a report of 10-20 cm swelling - much less than it could have been - probably due to local geology. Philippine and Indonesian islands are probably more at risk especially low lying islands.

<comment><USER34> Auckland-based geologist Chris Buckley says the tsunami wave is on its way towards New Zealand at 500 or 600 miles an hour.

I think soon it's hitting Hawaii. Let's hope it'll end as well as in Taiwan.

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER42> Patrick McKenzie tweet <https://twitter.com/#!/patio11/status/46086466836762624>

<comment><USER17> So since most of y'all understand American geography better than Japanese geography:

My friends in Osaka (San Fran) felt it.

I live in Ogaki (Kansas). There was a mild panic in the mall, and our trains stopped for a few minutes.

Folks in Tokyo are largely shaken but not terribly affected (Boston/DC ish).

Miyagi/etc (Maine-ish) got a wee bit whacked by a tsunami. They had a few minutes of warning. Reports will come in for a few hours, but we're _really_ good at dealing with this.

<comment><USER43> Osaka is kind of cool but gets a bit...weird...at times, there isn't much to speak of in Ogaki, and Miyagi is a fishing town?

<comment><USER44> Miyagi is a prefecture. Like a state or province.

</comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER45> Last year I experienced the chilean earthquake. It was 8.8. There were tsunamis in various cities and a lot of friends lost their houses. The days after it the earth wouldn't stop shaking. A new major aftershock every 5 minutes, and a new tsunami alert every couple of hours. For about 3 months. We still feel the occasional 6.5 aftershock every couple of weeks, more than a year later.

It's really sad to wake up and find that it has happened again.

</comment><comment><USER46> Live streams from Japanese TV stations:

<http://www.ustream.tv/channel/garage-t-west>

<http://www.ustream.tv/channel/fc2mh3>

<http://www.ustream.tv/channel/tbstv>

<http://www.ustream.tv/channel/foxtokimekitonight>

</comment><comment><USER47> Some amazing images on Twitpic:

<http://t.co/szbTX4V>

<http://t.co/nK0p50d>

<http://t.co/5zfUh6b>

Some tags to follow:

<http://twitpic.com/tag/tsunami>

<http://twitpic.com/tag/earthquake>

<http://twitpic.com/tag/japan>

</comment><comment><USER48> Here is a video of tsunami caused by this earthquake

<http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pcaFBlH8tjM>

</comment><comment><USER20> Also I found this interesting:

> A massive 8.8 magnitude quake hit the northeast coast of Japan on Friday, > shaking buildings in the capital Tokyo >

Why would you talk about the earthquake in Tokyo, when it happened in Miyagi? Tokyo only got hit with a 3 or 4. [EDIT: updated to 5 JMS. Tokyo got hit pretty hard too]

The actual earthquake was around 240 miles away. That's the same distance from New York to Boston.

<comment><USER30> 10 to 12 percent of Japan's entire population lives within Tokyo. 25% of Japan's entire population is within 30 miles of Tokyo. This is why.

<comment><USER17> And, conservatively, 98% of foreign news agency reporters. See also: a plane landing on the Hudson gets more coverage than half of Iowa being under water.

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER47> Live stream: <http://wwitv.com/tv_channels/6810.htm>

Or direct 256k: mms://nhk-world.gekimedia.net/nhkw-highm

They have revised the earthquake to 8.4 as of 11:08PM PST.

<comment><AUTHOR> other live stream: <http://english.aljazeera.net/watch_now/>

watching the 3-meter tsunami roll over land is surreal

<comment><USER13> For some reason I'm getting the audio but no video. Anyone else having that problem?

<comment><USER49> Yes.

<comment><USER50> Same. Was able to get video from [http://www.livestation.com/channels/3-al- jazeera-english-eng...](http://www.livestation.com/channels/3-al-jazeera- english-english)

</comment></comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER51> Diamondhead Reef in Hawaii just completely emptied, it's barren of water, nothing in sight.

</comment><comment><USER52> I don't know if it's of use for anyone here, but Google has set up a Crisis Response page:

<http://www.google.com/crisisresponse/japanquake2011.html>

</comment><comment><USER53> Interesting to view of all 5+ quakes the past 3 days <http://cl.ly/3G0f0t0d1C2Z381s3O31> . Loads of activity in the area. Is that kind of activity common, or could that have been an indicator that there was a chance of a major quake?

<comment><USER54> It's not normal at all. Something was building up

<comment><USER25> From [http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eqinthenews/2011/usc0...](http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eqinthenews/2011/usc0001xgp/#summary)

"The March 11 earthquake was preceded by a series of large foreshocks over the previous two days, beginning on March 9th with an M 7.2 event approximately 40 km from the March 11 earthquake, and continuing with a further 3 earthquakes greater than M 6 on the same day."

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER51> I am watching live and they just said all cooling hardware and backups for one of their atomic plants has FAILED and they are advising residents to evacuate. Ugh.

<comment><USER51> 2nd update: Despite the emergency coolant, pressure in the nuclear plant is going to be released soon which will result in a radiation leak. 3000+ people who live within 3 km are being evacuated.

</comment></comment><comment><USER55> The Atlantic has good photos:

[http://www.theatlantic.com/infocus/2011/03/earthquake-in- jap...](http://www.theatlantic.com/infocus/2011/03/earthquake-in- japan/100022/)

Al Jazeera has good video:

[http://english.aljazeera.net/news/asia- pacific/2011/03/20113...](http://english.aljazeera.net/news/asia- pacific/2011/03/2011311607470826.html)

</comment><comment><USER56> Is there any system currently able to mass-call all cellphones from any/all carriers within a given geo-location radius? Or any type of push notification service for natural disasters.

Seems like this happened during the day but watching the news made me think about disasters that happen at night. How are people notified to get the hell out of there??

<comment><USER17> _How are people notified to get the hell out of there??_

Are you familiar with the term "air raid siren"? The coast is wall-to-wall peppered with squack boxes. About a minute prior to the earthquake there would have been a "Earthquake is imminent -- brace yourself." broadcast and within a minute there would have been a "A tsunami warning is in effect for (here). Go to shelter immediately. Repeat..."

There are a couple levels of alerts they can pull, from "Be careful" to "MOVE NOW." Miyagi just got "MOVE NOW."

<comment><USER56> Thanks Patrick, that's refreshing to hear.

<comment><USER17> Problems Japan does not have #1: insufficient spending on public works projects In Case Shit Happens, because shit happens so often that when people in several dozen countries say shit they're speaking Japanese.

Can I tell you my favorite outsourcing story? Apologies for those who've heard it (and yes, this actually happened):

India: We can't log into the test server.

Patrick: Then you didn't set it up right.

India: No, we did, but we get an error message.

Patrick: What error message?

India: We can't read it.

Patrick: _sigh_ Please take a screenshot then.

India: Here you go.

Patrick: Oh, that is just a weather report which correctly reflects the state of the test database. The system is operating normally. Please proceed with your testing of the function you were assigned.

India: Are you sure it isn't an error? It is written in red. And why would you put a weather report on the login screen anyway?

Patrick: Q1) That is because if you ignore it _you'll die_. Q2) See Q1.

<comment><USER17> Holy cow, I've been on Hacker News far too long:

<http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=422043>

<comment><USER57> A bit off topic but how did you dig that up? Given how active you, you would have clicked next on your comments several hundred times.

<comment><USER17> SearchYC + a few words I remembered of it. (I have an anomalously good memory for things I've written, which is one reason I write so much. It's like Delicious except Yahoo can't lose my bookmarks.)

</comment></comment></comment></comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER55> Video of the Tsunami:

<http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k4w27IczOTk>

</comment><comment><USER58> Who is responding to this catastrophe? Is it the defense forces, state police, or is it just international agencies? I imagine a comprehensive aerial survey happening _immediately_, helicopters showing up with emergency supplies and defense troops or police within hours, and so on, but the government has produced ridiculously inaccurate casualty numbers and has blamed lack of contact with the affected area for their ignorance. It makes me think nobody is actually there. Can somebody fill us in on what is being done to help the people who are there?

</comment><comment><USER59> If you're in Hawaii or California, we're in a Tsunami Warning (which is the run-for-the-hills, highest grade warning): [http://wcatwc.arh.noaa.gov/2011/03/11/lhvpd9/04/messagelhvpd...](http://wcatwc.arh.noaa.gov/2011/03/11/lhvpd9/04/messagelhvpd9-04.htm)

If you're on a coastline, here are the tsunami height predictions: <http://wcatwc.arh.noaa.gov/models/models.html>

<comment><USER59> Looks like the NOAA website is having issues, but the email service isn't. Here's the latest report via email:

Web message at [http://wcatwc.arh.noaa.gov/2011/03/11/lhvpd9/06/messagelhvpd...](http://wcatwc.arh.noaa.gov/2011/03/11/lhvpd9/06/messagelhvpd9-06.htm)

WEAK51 PAAQ 111037 TSUAK1

BULLETIN PUBLIC TSUNAMI MESSAGE NUMBER 6 NWS WEST COAST/ALASKA TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER PALMER AK 237 AM PST FRI MAR 11 2011

THIS MESSAGE KEEPS THE WARNING AND ADVISORY REGIONS FIXED AND ADDS NEW TSUNAMI OBSERVATIONS. A LINK IS PROVIDED FOR TSUNAMI AMPLITUDE FORECASTS.

...THE TSUNAMI WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OF CALIFORNIA AND OREGON FROM POINT CONCEPCION CALIFORNIA TO THE OREGON-WASHINGTON BORDER...

...THE TSUNAMI WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OF ALASKA FROM AMCHITKA PASS ALASKA/125 MILES W OF ADAK/ TO ATTU ALASKA...

...THE TSUNAMI ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OF CALIFORNIA FROM THE CALIFORNIA-MEXICO BORDER TO POINT CONCEPCION CALIFORNIA...

...THE TSUNAMI ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OF WASHINGTON - BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALASKA FROM THE OREGON-WASHINGTON BORDER TO AMCHITKA PASS ALASKA/125 MILES W OF ADAK/...

A TSUNAMI WARNING MEANS... ALL COASTAL RESIDENTS IN THE WARNING AREA WHO ARE NEAR THE BEACH OR IN LOW-LYING REGIONS SHOULD MOVE IMMEDIATELY INLAND TO HIGHER GROUND AND AWAY FROM ALL HARBORS AND INLETS INCLUDING THOSE SHELTERED DIRECTLY FROM THE SEA. THOSE FEELING THE EARTH SHAKE... SEEING UNUSUAL WAVE ACTION... OR THE WATER LEVEL RISING OR RECEDING MAY HAVE ONLY A FEW MINUTES BEFORE THE TSUNAMI ARRIVAL AND SHOULD MOVE IMMEDIATELY. HOMES AND SMALL BUILDINGS ARE NOT DESIGNED TO WITHSTAND TSUNAMI IMPACTS. DO NOT STAY IN THESE STRUCTURES.

ALL RESIDENTS WITHIN THE WARNED AREA SHOULD BE ALERT FOR INSTRUCTIONS BROADCAST FROM THEIR LOCAL CIVIL AUTHORITIES. A TSUNAMI HAS BEEN RECORDED.

A TSUNAMI ADVISORY MEANS THAT A TSUNAMI CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG CURRENTS OR WAVES DANGEROUS TO PERSONS IN OR VERY NEAR THE WATER IS EXPECTED. SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD INUNDATION IS NOT EXPECTED FOR AREAS UNDER AN ADVISORY. CURRENTS MAY BE HAZARDOUS TO SWIMMERS... BOATS... AND COASTAL STRUCTURES AND MAY CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER THE INITIAL WAVE ARRIVAL.

AT 946 PM PACIFIC STANDARD TIME ON MARCH 10 AN EARTHQUAKE WITH PRELIMINARY MAGNITUDE 8.9 OCCURRED NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU JAPAN. THIS EARTHQUAKE HAS GENERATED A TSUNAMI WHICH COULD CAUSE DAMAGE TO REGIONS IN A WARNING OR ADVISORY. ESTIMATED TSUNAMI ARRIVAL TIMES AND MAPS ALONG WITH SAFETY RULES AND OTHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WEB SITE WCATWC.ARH.NOAA.GOV.

MEASUREMENTS OR REPORTS OF TSUNAMI ACTIVITY

      LOCATION                   LAT    LON     TIME        AMPL
      </comment></comment><comment></comment><comment></comment><comment></comment><comment>  -----  </comment><comment>  </comment><comment>-     </comment><comment>-----
      TOSASHIMIZU  JAPAN        32.8N  132.9E  0747UTC   00.9FT/00.27M
      TOKAI  JAPAN              33.8N  137.6E  0645UTC   00.8FT/00.25M
      OFUNATO  JAPAN            39.0N  141.8E  0605UTC   10.8FT/03.29M
      HANASAKI  JAPAN           43.3N  145.6E  0643UTC   09.3FT/02.82M
      BOSO  JAPAN               34.8N  140.8E  0609UTC   02.6FT/00.78M
      MINAMITORISHIMA  JAPAN    24.3N  154.0E  0747UTC   01.5FT/00.45M
      NAHA  JAPAN               26.2N  127.7E  0902UTC   00.7FT/00.20M
      SAIPAN  USA               15.2N  145.7E  0901UTC   02.6FT/00.79M
      WAKE IS.  USA             19.3N  166.6E  0918UTC   01.6FT/00.50M
      SHEMYA, ALASKA            52.7N  174.1E  1028UTC   01.3FT/00.43M

TIME - TIME OF MEASUREMENT AMPL - TSUNAMI AMPLITUDES ARE MEASURED RELATIVE TO NORMAL SEA LEVEL. IT IS ...NOT... CREST-TO-TROUGH WAVE HEIGHT. VALUES ARE GIVEN IN BOTH METERS(M) AND FEET(FT).

TSUNAMI AMPLITUDES ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK TWO TO THREE HOURS AFTER INITIAL ARRIVAL ALONG THE NORTH AMERICAN COAST.

FORECAST TSUNAMI AMPLITUDES ARE AVAILABLE ON THE WCATWC WEB SITE WCATWC.ARH.NOAA.GOV.

TSUNAMIS CAN BE DANGEROUS WAVES THAT ARE NOT SURVIVABLE. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE AMPLIFIED BY IRREGULAR SHORELINE AND ARE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST. TSUNAMIS OFTEN APPEAR AS A STRONG SURGE AND MAY BE PRECEDED BY A RECEDING WATER LEVEL. MARINERS IN WATER DEEPER THAN 600 FEET SHOULD NOT BE AFFECTED BY A TSUNAMI. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY AS WATER SHALLOWS. TSUNAMIS ARE A SERIES OF OCEAN WAVES WHICH CAN BE DANGEROUS FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER THE INITIAL WAVE ARRIVAL. DO NOT RETURN TO EVACUATED AREAS UNTIL AN ALL CLEAR IS GIVEN BY LOCAL CIVIL AUTHORITIES.

PACIFIC COASTAL REGIONS OUTSIDE CALIFORNIA/ OREGON/ WASHINGTON/ BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALASKA SHOULD REFER TO THE PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER MESSAGES FOR INFORMATION ON THIS EVENT AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PTWC.

THIS MESSAGE WILL BE UPDATED IN 60 MINUTES OR SOONER IF THE SITUATION WARRANTS. THE TSUNAMI MESSAGE WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO... YOUR LOCAL TV OR RADIO STATIONS... OR SEE THE WEB SITE WCATWC.ARH.NOAA.GOV.

$$

</comment><comment><USER60> Japanese mobile network operators provides disaster message boards in English.

Docomo(NTT) <http://dengon.docomo.ne.jp/Etop.cgi> SoftBank <http://dengon.softbank.ne.jp/pc-e1.jsp> au(KDDI) <http://dengon.ezweb.ne.jp/E/service.do>

</comment><comment><USER61> Chiba Steel Mill explosion:

<http://twitpic.com/48edb1>

It's getting serious.

</comment><comment> T-R Tsunami warning for California: [http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=usa&...](http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=usa&wwa=Tsunami%20Warning)

</comment><comment><USER62> CNN has a video of the tsunami: [http://www.cnn.com/video/#/video/world/2011/03/11/vo.japan.t...](http://www.cnn.com/video/#/video/world/2011/03/11/vo.japan.tidal.wave.NHK?hpt=C2)

</comment><comment><USER63> Here is a stream of images from Japan: [http://search.twitter.com/search?q=twitpic+near%3Ajapan+with...](http://search.twitter.com/search?q=twitpic+near%3Ajapan+within%3A500mi)

<comment><USER64> From above stream, a shot of people waiting to be rescued: <http://twitpic.com/48e4r4>

</comment></comment><comment> old-gregg I never saw a photo of tsunami like this one: <http://drugoi.livejournal.com/3507657.html#cutid1>

</comment><comment><USER65> Was pretty crazy. myGengo office had a light break, but otherwise we weren't too badly affected.

Hope goes out to those more affected, looks insane from what I'm seeing.

</comment><comment><USER66> What's staggering to me is that the 1989 earthquake in SF was only a 6.8 -- and that made our home in Marin feel like we were floating on a swimming pool. I can't even begin to imagine what an 8.9 is like. Tragic, but apparently expected: Japan's strict building codes will go a long way towards minimizing human loss. If only there were a way to protect against the biblical devastation of tsumanis.

</comment><comment><USER67> If you want to see a visual of where the epicenter was:

[http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&source=s_q&hl=en&...](http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&source=s_q&hl=en&geocode=&q=38.322%C2%B0N,+142.369%C2%B0E&aq=&sll=37.0625,-95.677068&sspn=42.987658,63.896484&ie=UTF8&ll=38.32442,142.382813&spn=10.681593,15.974121&z=6)

</comment><comment><USER68> My thoughts are with those in Sendai and the other affected areas, the helicopter shot on tv is terrifying. The tsunami appears to have been more destuctive than the actual earthquake. The earthquake was a long way offshore (150km) so I imagine the shaking intensity was relatively low on the mainland and the buildings and other infrastructure will be alright.

</comment><comment><USER69> All quake servers are down in Japan; <http://www.quakelive.com/>

</comment><comment><USER70> Hope everyone in Japan is doing ok - I guess I am lucky that I am out of the country precisely this day, but now starting to get worry about people I know. It is a bit scary to think that an earthquake felt in east of Japan (tokyo, sendai), and also in Osaka where I live, almost 500 km west from there.

</comment><comment><USER71> I hope Ray Grieselhuber of Ginzametrics (YC) is OK - along with everyone else. I am pretty sure he is based around Tokyo. <http://ginzametrics.com/ginzametrics-is-hiring-in-tokyo.html>

<comment><USER59> I emailed him as soon as I got the NOAA tsunami notification email -- he's fine -- he's in California.

<comment><USER72> Thanks very much, InfinityX0. We are in California and are hiring for our Tokyo office. So far, everybody I know is in good health and nobody was hurt.

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER73> Airport 2 km inland is flooded, amazing helicopter shots of the water sliding across the land.

<comment><USER74> This is the Tokyo International Airport?

<comment><USER2> I think he is referring to the sendai airport.

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER75> As always, check out the national Bouy Center from our friend at NOAA: <http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/> This is data geek heaven.

</comment><comment><USER76> Live Japanese feed: <http://www.ustream.tv/channel/foxtokimekitonight>

</comment><comment><USER77> People outside of Tokyo Disneyland <http://twitpic.com/48dy7s>

<comment><USER44> I was scheduled to go there tomorrow with my little girl.

So now you know the _full_ extent of the disaster.

</comment></comment><comment><USER78> <https://www.wepay.com/donate/sendai>

</comment><comment><USER79> OMG! This feels like 2012 (the movie). Seeing that tsunami is breathtaking. I sincerely hope lives aren't lost.

<comment><USER80> Except the wave was 8,85 kilometers high the movie...

</comment></comment><comment><USER81> @BBCBreaking: "Japanese authorities to release radioactive vapour to ease pressure at Fukushima nuclear reactor, from AP"

And this is how Gojira was created..

</comment><comment><USER82> Is this post appropriate for HN?

<comment><USER83> No, it is not. From the HN guidelines: _Off-Topic: Most stories about politics, or crime, or sports, unless they're evidence of some interesting new phenomenon. Videos of pratfalls or disasters, or cute animal pictures. If they'd cover it on TV news, it's probably off-topic._

And unlike cosmok, I do mind it, because this type of news is slowly turning HN into something it shouldn't be. There's a reason for this particular guideline, and I think we should honor that.

EDIT: I don't mind the downvoting, but please, if you do that, at least post a comment on why you think my comment deserved to be downvoted.

<comment><USER84> They may be downvoting you because they are emotional. Or they may be downvoting because you are wrong. ;)

This story violates neither the letter nor the spirit of the rule against "video" of a disaster; aka cheap sensationalism. Rather, much of the thread is the opposite of sensationalism: e.g. patio11 on the average state of Japanese disaster preparedness.

This story has all sorts of HN community relevance, ranging from _how are community members experiencing this on the ground_ to _how do otherwise abstract geology papers manifest in real life_ to _hey, wait, my startup is sitting in a prime earthquake zone; how should we prepare?_

And, you know, this is a magnitude 8.9 earthquake. They don't happen every year. We can afford a handful of threads on each one. It's nice to try to have an _interesting_ news site, but if this isn't news one has to question the entire _concept_ of news. Which is fair: News is not for everyone, and perhaps news is not for you. It's just not to your taste. Have you tried an exclusive diet of decade-old paper books?</comment></comment></comment>


TeXnique: A LaTeX Typesetting Game - <AUTHOR> https://texnique.xyz/ <comment><USER2> One of the developers here! Thanks for posting, and feel free to contribute / provide feedback.</comment>


Burning Man Is Its Own Worst Enemy - <AUTHOR> https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-31/burning-man-is-its-own-worst-enemy <comment><USER2> Burning Man will continue to be increasingly shaken down by every agency that can shake them down for as they hold the event. As long as you can't (or the other parties think you won't) walk away, you're always going to be at a disadvantage at the negotiating table.

The smart thing to do for the organizers is call everyone's bluff and cancel the event for a year. It wouldn't be the end of the world for Burning Man, but it would hit the pocketbooks of all the agencies banking on the revenue and give everyone a lesson they'd remember for a long time.</comment>


Second U.S. coronavirus case of unknown origin confirmed in Santa Clara County - <AUTHOR> https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/02/28/santa-clara-county-announces-new-coronavirus-case/ <comment><USER2> The first patient was confirmed after having been intubated for >= 4 days. On average it takes 9 days from infection to ARDS, which requires intubation, according to a Lancet study. She was confirmed 5 days ago (on Feb 23rd). So she could be infected 9 + 4 + 5 = ~18 days ago.

Since only around 20% of patients require hospitalization, we can estimate there are ~5 infected in her cohort. With doubling time outside China at 5-6 days, that means around 3 doublings: 2^3 * 5 = 40 infected today (Many of them will not show serious symptoms; some who will require admission have not progressed to that stage yet.) So far we have assumed that all hospitalized cases are detected, however.

Some who are hospitalized might still not be detected, since without a test or a CT scan, its symptoms are similar to other viral pneumonia. Let's say infected per detected is a factor of 1.5-4. Very rough estimates: ~60-160 infected in the Bay Area now.

[https://www.wired.com/story/community-spread- coronavirus/](https://www.wired.com/story/community-spread-coronavirus/)

[https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6...](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736\(20\)30183-5/fulltext)

Doubling time outside China: [https://ncov.r6.no/](https://ncov.r6.no/)

<comment><USER3> Curious why a CT scan is required as opposed to a more routine inexpensive chest XRay?

</comment></comment><comment><USER4> Because the US is doing nearly zero surveillance testing, we don't know what we don't know.

Maybe there's community transmission right now beyond these two cases and we don't know because we're only testing people returning from China or from the cruise ship.

<comment><USER5> The CDC had issues with quality control on the test kits that must be distributed before labs outside of CDC Atlanta can begin doing their own testing.

[https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/about/testing.html](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/about/testing.html)

The plan was always to expand testing, but you need a working test kit first.

>Six public health labs in the US plan to start monitoring the general population for the new coronavirus this week. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) says that the risk of the virus still remains low for the general population. But activating the disease surveillance network will allow the CDC and other public health officials to find any undetected virus circulating through the country.

[https://www.theverge.com/2020/2/24/21147157/coronavirus- lab-...](https://www.theverge.com/2020/2/24/21147157/coronavirus-lab- surveillance-flu-cdc-virus-tracking-testing)

Edited to add that according to Pro Publica the problem stems from the CDC trying to get a little too fancy.

>The federal agency shunned the World Health Organization test guidelines used by other countries and set out to create a more complicated test of its own that could identify a range of similar viruses.

[https://www.propublica.org/article/cdc-coronavirus- covid-19-...](https://www.propublica.org/article/cdc-coronavirus- covid-19-test)

<comment><USER6> South Korea tested on the order of 10,000 people today alone and found roughly 300 positive cases. The USA has managed to test around 500 in the past two months.

I'm extremely concerned this isn't being treated with an appropriate level of hair on fire urgency. They said 2 weeks ago they were going to start expanded testing in 5 cities and they are still developing a testing procedure?

<comment><USER7> > I'm extremely concerned this isn't being treated with an appropriate level > of hair on fire urgency.

Or, the actions are to be given more weight that the words. That is, perhaps the response is actually appreciate.

Let's recap: The CDC has made a couple statements. The POTUS has down played things. On the other hand, the mainstream media has pinned the sensationalism meter.

Fact: It's been a fairly active "traditional" flu season. Plenty have gotten sick. Plenty have died. Coverage? Zero. Comparison between the flu and this corona virus? Again, zero.

There's disconnected and mixed messages, and plenty of misinformation. I'm not dismissing the threat. Just the same the signal to noise ratio is ridiculous.

Full disclosure: I carry a lot of contempt for the mainstream media. My level of trust, close to zero. The coverge of this issue does more to deepen my mistrust more than gain it. Based on discussions I've had with peers, I'm not alone.

<comment><USER8> Your contempt leads you to falsehoods and further confusion. Put it away before it gets you hurt.

There is no comparison between flu and Corona. Deaths of non-immune compromised flu sufferers in the US are tiny (1 in my state, NYS, this whole season).

Corona appears to be at least 100 times as deadly as the flu for non-immune compromised, probably more, and there are so many unknowns (eg repeat sufferers).

There is no universe in which "POTUS has down played things" is anywhere near a rational distillation of the behavior of this administration.

Take the glasses off. Put away the contempt. Use your brain. Don't be a fool.

<comment><USER7> Outside of China...number of deaths?

One death for the common flu in all of NY this season? Nah. Not credible. NYC alone has more than one.

[https://weather.com/health/cold-flu/news/2020-01-28-flu- more...](https://weather.com/health/cold-flu/news/2020-01-28-flu-more-deadly- than-coronavirus)

Is there a concern about corona? Possibly. Does the data and the media's depiction currently support the frenzy? No.

Fool? That funny because your data is wrong. I'm questioning you, you have no answers, and I'm the fool? That's not how it works here.

</comment></comment></comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER9> It's getting real now. Wash you hands, and avoid touching your face. Plan to spend less time in close proximity to others.

I saw a message at a dance studio in Monterey Park, which is like a Chinatown section of Los Angeles. The sign outside says that if you have been to China recently, please self quarantine yourself for 14 days before entering the dance studio.

I could definitely notice a difference in the approach they had. They are already worried about it and they are taking steps. I'm not really sure we're ready for this thing. But it's here. It sure seems that way anyway.

<comment><USER10> > The sign outside says that if you have been to China recently

It is no longer only China at this moment, it is literally EVERYWHERE....

<comment><USER11> 97% of cases have been in China so far.

<comment><USER10> But US had rejected China travelers' entry and it had been almost 3 weeks now.

The chance that people here in get the virus from travelers from Italy/Japan/South Korea/Middle East is MUCH higher than that from China at this very moment.

<comment><USER12> US citizens are still allowed to travel to and from China, and there are multiple flights every day.

<comment><USER13> Yes, and they are supposed to self-quarantine on return for 14 days.

No such rule is present with S. Korea or Italy.

A random traveler from S. Korea/Italy is far "riskier" at this point.

(Bonus: It's actually really hard to fly directly from China to the US at this point. Your best bets (esp. in the north) are transit through S. Korea or Japan, both infected places)

</comment></comment></comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER14> I am suspicious that a _lot_ of people in the Bay Area have mild cases of COVID-19. I also see no reason to believe that the total number of cases isn't a couple of orders of magnitude higher than reported, making the overall fatality rate quite low.

Ideally, enough serological tests could be produced that a public health authority could randomly sample a population and get an actual unbiased estimate of the infection rate.

<comment><USER15> I've suspected the same in SoCal. DW and I have been feeling kind of bleh over the past few days, and as of today both of our families haven't been feeling great either. It could be something else too, but I wouldn't be surprised either way.

<comment><USER16> Allergy season? It's hitting me as of mid-week. In the bay area here.

<comment><USER15> It could be allergies. Whatever it is, it's fairly regular. I have a once a day spike in symptoms, only at night so far, where I feel like I'm about the catch the flu (runny nose, scratchy throat, a bit of coughing, and generally feeling poor), but the symptoms fade after an hour or two. Besides that I just feel tired, and at the start of whatever this is I had a day of loose BMs. DW and I's family also started feeling crummy a few days after we did, which could admittedly just be a coincidence.

On the flip side, it's also fairly common to think the flu is just a cold virus or allergies because most people don't display much in the way of symptoms.

[https://www.npr.org/sections/health- shots/2014/03/17/2908789...](https://www.npr.org/sections/health- shots/2014/03/17/290878964/even-if-you-dont-have-symptoms-you-may-still-have- the-flu)

Odds are this is just some random virus (>90% chance), but I wouldn't be surprised if it was COVID-19 either (<10% chance).

Edit - I also have a cousin living in LA that developed pneumonia, which again could just be coincidental.

</comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER17> Not in the news yet but there is an admission at kaiser San Jose of a potential covid-19 patient. Have all the symptoms, traveled and tested negative for flu!!

<comment><USER18> How have the mods left this sitting here for 3 hours? Rumors like this cause panics and get people killed. So fucking irresponsible.

<comment><USER19> What is the rumor? There are many people working in hospitals that know a thing or two but aren't in a position to share it outside the workplace. I'd rather the facts be allowed out rather than covered up... it's more responsible and will keep people from getting killed.

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER20> My wife is an ER nurse. (West Coast but not California) Kind of wondering if I'm going to have to isolate myself from her just in case. She's almost surely going to be coming into contact with patients soon.

Starting to get real for sure.

<comment><USER21> Probably not worth it, unless you're in a group most likely to die of the effects.

If anything, I wonder if one would prefer to get exposed earlier rather than later.

Of course, my wife works in a hospital in Santa Clara.

<comment><USER22> Even young and middle-age people have a 0.2% mortality rate, which at the US statistical value of life (~$10M) works out to $20,000. (And if you're a well- paid software developer, you can probable 5x that.) Whatever you would do to avoid losing $20k-$100k, you should probably do to avoid getting Covid-19 (modulo questions about how long immunity lasts).

<comment><USER23> One thing to note is that even though there are age range breakdowns from this initial analysis ([https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32064853](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32064853)), there is also a breakdown based on pre-existing conditions, with Cardiovascular, Diabetes, Chronic respiratory disease, Hypertension, and Cancer being 5-10X hazard ratios vs those with no pre-existing conditions.

Sadly, the paper is in Chinese, but you would probably want to look at the percentage of non-mild cases in your age bracket and adjusted for your pre- existing condition risk to see how your actual risk might be modeled: [http://rs.yiigle.com/yufabiao/1181998.htm](http://rs.yiigle.com/yufabiao/1181998.htm)

But I think we'll just have to see how the medical response is in each specific locality to really get a good idea of what the real risk is.

I don't necessarily think that a dollar amount is actually the best way to think about it. It's very hard to think about what value you'd place on avoiding a hypothetical 1/500 risk of death (adjust based on percentage of population you think will contract this). Note that as a 40yo, your odds of dying _period_ within that year is actually about 1/500: [https://www.finder.com/life-insurance/odds-of- dying](https://www.finder.com/life-insurance/odds-of-dying)

You can then split this up by percentages for cause of death: [https://www.advisory.com/daily- briefing/2019/01/16/deaths](https://www.advisory.com/daily- briefing/2019/01/16/deaths) (Chart 2, select your age category)

UK chart, but also some charts on annual death risk: [http://www.bandolier.org.uk/booth/Risk/dyingage.html](http://www.bandolier.org.uk/booth/Risk/dyingage.html)

And lastly, the almost useless CDC data/charts - they include leading causes and absolute number by cause and age-group, but not the population size so you have no idea what your odds are: [https://www.cdc.gov/injury/wisqars/LeadingCauses.html](https://www.cdc.gov/injury/wisqars/LeadingCauses.html)

In any case, once you have the odds down, you can place the amount of effort you'd spend relative to the amount of effort you spend on other risks.

<comment><USER22> > I don't necessarily think that a dollar amount is actually the best way to > think about it. It's very hard to think about what value you'd place on > avoiding a hypothetical 1/500 risk of death

It's not that hard if you try. We face risk-benefit tradeoffs everyday. You either (1) have an _implicit_ price you put on small risks to your own life in the sense that you accept risks below that price and reject ones above it, or (2) you are acting inconsistently, in the sense that you could strictly reduce risks to your life while making more money (or saving more time, etc.).

> Note that as a 40yo, your odds of dying period within that year is actually > about 1/500:

Sure. And I think that if people could purchase immortality for their 40th year for $20k, they should probably do it.

> In any case, once you have the odds down, you can place the amount of effort > you'd spend relative to the amount of effort you spend on other risks.

Sure, now just find out how much you pay routinely to avoid this effort (e.g., how much you pay your accountant to do your taxes), and you've got a risk- dollar exchange rate.

<comment><USER23> As you mention effort/value can be converted to dollar value, so I don't think we actually disagree that strongly - the missing word from my critique would be "fixed" dollar amount - using the hypothetical $10M lifetime worth.

There's more to it, but the point I was trying to make is that the amount of time/effort/money you spend worrying about coronavirus should (rationally) be relative to what you spend for other similar risks.

For your last example, I think that what you pay to save time or effort saving services might be on a different calculus since there's a guarantee of how much time or bother it might save you, vs a potential downside calculation.

<comment><USER22> > the missing word from my critique would be "fixed" dollar amount

Sorry, are you just saying different people may have different amounts? Sure, sure. But for a given individual the amount has to be fixed across the choices (at least all the choices close enough in time that the money is fungible).

> since there's a guarantee of how much time or bother it might save you, vs a > potential downside calculation.

When I decide to wear a mask to the store, there is a guarantee of how much bother it _costs_ me. The only thing that's uncertain is the risk to my life. But, as previously argued, each person should have a linear risk-dollar exchange rate for small risks.

</comment></comment></comment></comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER24> Serious question: don't we pass a threshold where it's not practical to cancel travel or events because of covid-19? It's just going to spread anyway?

For example, once, say, Olympics roll around, is there really any value in canceling them if it's going to be everywhere anyway?

Is containment even possible and, if not, is the disruption to the economy worth it?

<comment><USER25> It's about smoothing the curve so the healthcare system can absorb the influx of patients. If the healthcare system is overwhelmed then it's a problem.

Here's a link to a great article.

[https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/preparing-...](https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/preparing- for-coronavirus-to-strike-the-u-s/)

<comment><USER26> This is exactly what's happening in Italy. The majority of people are asymptomatic or only have mild symptoms, but smaller hospitals are nearing full capacity and thus are redirecting patients to other hospitals. ICU beds cannot all be reserved to covid patients, there are regular patients as well. All the restrictive measures put in place should help contain the spread and avoid overwhelming the healthcare system.

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER27> I'm sick in Santa Clara County as is my household. Do I just wait it out for a few weeks? Sister called in sick but is being pressured to work

<comment><USER28> The ethical thing to do would be to self-quarantine.

Feel better soon

</comment></comment><comment><USER29> if this gets bad enough in the 'western' world maybe the Chinese could spin the narrative into "look how well we were able to control it in the place it started"

time will tell...

<comment><USER30> It has already happened. My parents live in China and my mom was raving about how quickly they built that hospital in Wuhan and what a great leader they have. I told her Stanford is a really great hospital. _shrug_

<comment><USER31> Opinions on how well they're handling things aside, I must say, I was pretty impressed with how quickly they built that hospital. We could never do that in the US.

<comment><USER32> Critical infrastructure to slow a deadly pandemic?? Not in MY backyard!

<comment><USER33> [https://www.ocregister.com/2020/02/22/why-here-costa-mesa- oc...](https://www.ocregister.com/2020/02/22/why-here-costa-mesa-oc-officials- question-feds-plan-for-coronavirus-quarantine-site/)

</comment></comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER34> I am hearing wildly varying opinions on the severity of the covid-19 situation.

It seems like the general conversation here on HN has been much more doom and gloom than some other places.

Anyone have opinions on why that is?

Possibly the higher than normal concentration of members here on the West Coast?

Maybe the general tendency of people with stronger opinions on a topic to comment on threads about that topic?

Obviously there's a chance the concerns raised here are of the proper severity and everyone else is just under-reacting, but it also seems entirely possible that this is already way more widely spread than people realize and the percentages are just skewed because most people wouldn't bother going to the doctor for a cold.

I guess we'll find out one way or another...

<comment><USER35> Doom and gloom as compared to what? I would say it's Doom and gloom before I'd call it a "hoax". If anything, I see a lot of people on here making flu-like comparisons. I'd say I'm more doomish than that, too.

Because so many people are trying to conceal information to keep tourism going, stability, re-election, GDP and so on, we really don't know how bad it is.

But when's the last time a flu caused a 13% sell-off? It seems pretty serious.

After reading The Fifth Risk by Michael Lewis, I'm really starting to be convinced our collective willful ignorance is becoming problematic.

<comment><USER36> If you compare what we know about it now to the flu, it's 20x more lethal than the flu at current estimates with many of those who get it severe enough to go to the hospital requiring intensive care to recover. It's legit.

<comment><USER37> Source on the 20x number?

<comment><USER36> Heard specifically the .1% flu and 2% for COVID19 was from Dr. Adam Bernheim from Mount Sinai hospital in NYC who was interviewed as part of a Bloomberg investing podcast called "Bloomberg Surveillance". He's citing roughly what I've seen in journals regarding the study of COVID (note I'm not in the medical field but semi-competent and enough to find articles in medical journals, read them and understand what they're saying) but I haven't been able to find a number for typical season flu strains being "about .1%" is what he specifically says and "about 2%" for COVID19. He compared various aspects of it to the typical seasonal flus at 11 minutes into the show, specifically 11minutes 40seconds for mortality comparison.

Bloomberg Surveillance podcast is free and also availability through other platforms but here it is through Apple podcasts:

[https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/bloomberg- surveillance...](https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/bloomberg- surveillance/id296237493?i=1000466868582)

</comment></comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER38> It's good the company where I work, which employs about 70 people, allows us all to remote. We have a large space that we rent in a WeWork office in San Francisco but we can also work from home if we want. We have remote employees in other states and over the last year have built a very strong remote culture. All of our meetings have people who are remote, in fact often more people are remote than not these days. I imagine our company's work from home policy will help avoid downtime and really make a difference compared to companies that are just going to have to shut down when faced with the reality of this horrible virus.

</comment><comment><USER39> TLDR;

> The infected patient is an older adult woman with chronic health conditions > who was hospitalized for a respiratory illness, county officials said.

> This would be the 63rd confirmed case in the U.S. Of those, 44 were people > who had been aboard the Diamond Princess cruise ship and repatriated to the > U.S., three were repatriated from Wuhan, 12 were people who had recently > traveled in China and two caught it from a close family member. This week's > two cases in Solano and Santa Clara counties involved people with no known > exposure risk.

<comment><USER40> > [the] patient [...] is now at El Camino Hospital

<comment><USER41> Mt View

<comment><USER16> It wasn't clear from the article. I wasn't sure if it was Los Gatos or MtnV.

<comment><USER42> It'll definitely be Mountain View, they're set up with a proper ICU and isolation.

</comment></comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER43> test kit can be in hundreds, not a lot can afford it. The governor should do something about reducing the cost for cost-effective testing.

</comment><comment><USER44> My husband is a career public health clinician who organizes vaccination clinics (has given out hundreds of thousands of vaccines for infectious disease, many for free via grants). At the state level here in US, he has mounted responses to H1N1, ebola, measles and now this coronavirus. The conventional wisdom around this outbreak, right from the beginning, has been that almost everyone on the planet will be exposed. It's no surprise this is hopping around stateside.

The virus has a two week incubation period, during which the host is not infectious, but also has no symptoms, making tracking vectors difficult. In addition, after incubation there are a couple of days where the host is highly infectious, and _still_ has no symptoms. The term for this period is "prodrome" (pre syndrome). Under certain circumstances, it's also airborne, which is can be a problem for providers. It's spreading fast because of these characteristics.

Similar to flu, it is expected that this virus will find enough hosts to essentially never stop circulating. Expect to see it again next year, and the year after, etc, in perpetuity.

Get your flu shots! You might prevent someone from getting very sick or dying, even if you don't see symptoms yourself.

<comment><USER45> "Of course, it's also airborne"

This is new to me — I was under the impression that it could spread by droplets, but hadn't heard anything definitive about being airborne?

<comment><USER44> Apparently, there are some conditions where it can go airborne, but most transmissions are by droplet. I'll amend my comment. Healthcare providers will been using airborne protocols, which was where i got the idea.

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER46> The over_reaction to this is utterly ridiculous in Europe.

<comment><USER28> How so? Have you seen Italy's numbers?

</comment></comment><comment><USER11> Why is everything happening in Bay Area? Do local official ignore CDC protocols to spite Trump?

</comment><comment><USER47> Is the main goal just to delay the widespread infection until we have a vaccine produced?

It seems like this was always an impossible goal. So does it even matter when this goes pandemic? Sure, more preparation would get us more masks or something, but anything that would really help?

<comment><USER48> Think about capacity and throughput of hospitals. If everyone gets it all at once, they'll be overwhelmed and many people will die, since severe cases often need respirators, drugs, and close monitoring.

The goal is to smooth out the cases over a longer period so we're less capacity limited. That means everyone taking extreme precaution with hygiene.

<comment><USER47> Has this ever been done for any pandemic virus?

We have a "flu season" where hospitals are flooded every year. From what I read, there's not even a strong immunity after being infected with this virus, so won't people just get re-infected?

It doesn't seem like there's any version of this where things are not terrible for a while. I hope I'm wrong though.

<comment><USER48> Yes, we can lower the R0 infection rate and smooth it out over a longer period of time by adopting better hygiene practices and making behavior changes. You're seeing that right now as different countries mobilize and react differently.

If your re-infected comment is regarding the reports of people getting it a second time, I believe that's been debunked and is an artifact of imperfect tests rather than the virus itself.

What I've read from multiple sources is that SARS family coronaviruses are pretty stable evolutionarily, so once you have immunity you should be able to fight it off in the future. This is in contrast to influenza which evolves quickly, which is why 'the big one' in pandemics is much more likely to be influenza (or a bacteria) rather than coronaviruses. See also: Spanish Flu, Black Death

<comment><USER47> Thanks for the thoughtful reply! I was basing the immunity question on comments from doctors like the below quote. It sounds like one won't easily be re-infected with the same strain? But if it mutates later, or your antibodies diminish, then you could get re-infected? That doesn't sound as bad as being stuck in an infinite loop of re-infection.

 _If you survive, are you immune?

People who are infected and then recover will likely show some immunity to the virus.

But it's not lifelong. It wanes over time. If it's seasonal, it may ebb and flow._

[https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/02/11/coronavirus- the-8-big...](https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/02/11/coronavirus-the-8-big- questions-that-scientists-are-asking/)

<comment><USER48> It seems that way but I'm not sure honestly, this is past the limits of my knowledge. Probably good to keep an eye on the subject though since it may affect our behavioral choices.

</comment></comment></comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER49> My biggest fear is this virus hitting an antivax community. It's really hard to stop a virus like this in the US because travel rate is higher while we still have high density areas. It's very difficult to contain without resorting to Martial law type of traffic ban which is not feasible in the US.

<comment><USER50> What are your specific fears about it hitting an antivax community? It's not like they have any ad- or disadvantage compared to the rest of the population wrt. Immunity at the current time

<comment><USER51> Even if they have no direct medical vulnerabilities, anti-vaxxers are prone to rejecting or subverting public health recommendations, eg voluntarily bringing their kids to measles parties to 'get it over with'. As recently as 2 days ago Rush Limbaugh (a conservative talk radio host) was saying that Covid-19 is essentially just the common cold and the health scare was misplaced.

<comment><USER50> There are a lot of other groups this applies to. For example, the current Korean outbreak was started by a religious member who refused to be quarantined. The US's response is being lead by someone that doesn't believe in science. If you want to get worried about something, there are a lot of other places to start</comment></comment></comment></comment>


Steve Wozniak on Steve Jobs Movie - <AUTHOR> http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-34188602 <comment><USER2> How many Jobs/Apple movies do we need?

Seems to be nothing more than cashing in on the iPhone generation's obsession and hype with one particular brand.

Why don't we have a decent Tesla movie? His life and events surrounding his inventions are remarkable, truly engrossing. World-changing in a way that blows Apple Computers or any internal corporate bullshit story or personal Steve Jobs issues out of the park.

Yet, where's the big time Hollywood treatment? Christian Bale as Tesla would work, with a good script and big time visuals spanning the 60 odd years of his life and work. Not cool enough?

The best we have is The Prestige. Great movie, but Tesla is not the focus, only a very interesting side story in that otherwise fictitious world.

FFS Hollywood, get it done! The man had visions of AC motors and dreams of generators at the base of Niagara Falls. Then he moves to America and actually achieves those dreams against all odds.

End of rant. Now, where were we? Ah yes, slow clapping Steve Jobs, the man, the genius. When he gets kicked out of Apple, it truly knifed me in the soul. This movie will be the best thing since we saw one man code Facebook out of nothing but PHP, computers and existing network infrastructure. That too, warmed the cockles.

<comment><USER3> Any Tesla movie would probably be depressing as fuck.

Kid genius comes to America to work for his hero, but decides to strike out on his own to change the world after a disagreement over money. Ends up failing miserably and being crushed by his former hero and employer. Slowly goes insane and dies poor and largely forgotten.

<comment><USER4> No worse than the Turing movie with Bernard Cumbersnatch. Tragedy is great movie material.

<comment><USER5> "Bernard Cumbersnatch"? I take it that you are referring to celebrated British actor, Humperdinck Rumblebum? Or was it perhaps, Twiddleplink Cucumberpatch? I can never get these British names quite right.

</comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER6> Some interesting discussion by Woz and Robert Scoble on the topic: [https://www.facebook.com/RobertScoble/posts/1015356891824965...](https://www.facebook.com/RobertScoble/posts/10153568918249655?comment_tracking=%7B%22tn%22%3A%22O%22%7D) Marc Benioff and John Sculley on the thread too.

<comment><USER7> REally hope this gets archived.

</comment></comment><comment><USER8> Probably singing to the choir, but _Founders at Work_ [1] has a great interview with Wozniak that gives an interesting glimpse into some stories about Jobs in the early days of Apple. In true Woz fashion it also focuses a lot on the hardware he designed back then, which is also a real fun read.

[1] [https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/98233.Founders_at_Work](https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/98233.Founders_at_Work)</comment>


The Electric Car may be entering its "cell phone" period - <AUTHOR> http://ideas.4brad.com/electric-car-may-be-entering-its-cell-phone-period <comment><USER2> Good electric car battery standard would solve almost all of the problems of electric cars.

1\. The battery is where most development happens and where it's most needed. So you don't have to worry about your car getting too old too fast. Just get fresh battery.

2\. Range: just swap the battery if you run out of juice. They could be rented like gas bottles are at service station.

3\. Battery charge lifespan.

4\. Potentially emerging fuel cells. They are just a way to burn something into electricity. Why do you care what kind of black box feeds you car some current?

How could this be done? Build robots at service stations that lift a battery pack into the bottom of the car. Good place could be where the spare wheel currently goes. Bottom of the trunk. You could steal mechanical locking from intermodal containers, just scale it down. And electric connectors could be upscale speakon connectors stolen from pro audio.

<comment> m-i-l Tesla did have battery swap stations where the battery would be swapped in around 90 seconds (less time than it takes to fill up a tank)[0]. However, uptake was apparently very small so focus was shifted to building the network of supercharger stations[1].

[0] [https://www.teslamotors.com/blog/battery-swap-pilot- program](https://www.teslamotors.com/blog/battery-swap-pilot-program)

[1] [http://www.engadget.com/2015/06/10/tesla-battery- swap/](http://www.engadget.com/2015/06/10/tesla-battery-swap/)

<comment><USER3> The more interesting question, then, becomes "why didn't you swap your battery?" to drivers who charged instead.

<comment><USER4> You had to swap back to your own battery on the way home. When I drive SF/LA, I go down on I5 (passing the swap station) and come back up the coast.

If Teslas had leased batteries it would be easier, but they do not.

</comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER5> 1) The Tesla just surpassed the Leaf as the most popular electric car (yes, even with the price difference).

2) Electric car perks are everywhere and rarely mentioned. Free charging, way better parking, fielding questions from curious onlookers, more cargo space, no noise, no warmup, no oil changes, etc.)

3) In the winter months in areas of the world with real seasons (read: not San Francisco area), cabin heating will detract significantly from your range on a long 20 degree F drive. Talking 25% less maximum range or so. You can mitigate it somewhat by using seat heat instead but I've found that passengers REALLY do not want to go that route (or worse, they want BOTH lol).

<comment><USER6> Why don't electric cars come with a tiny kerosene cabin heater as standard? A small heater would take up little space or weight, could be easily refueled at home so not need a detour to a petrol station, and be much more cost effective than adding extra batteries just to provide cabin heat. Sure, it's not zero- emission, but the efficiency of a kerosene heater can be pretty good (much better than an internal combustion engine) and it might go a long way to increase the usefulness on cold days.

<comment><USER7> No one would be silly enough to cart around a tank of highly explosive liquid in their vehicle.

<comment><USER8> I look forward to hearing my grandkids saying this in disbelief, to which I respond, "No, really, we carted around a massive tank of highly flammable liquid. To make matters worse, we actually steered vehicles ourselves."

</comment></comment></comment></comment><comment> m-i-l The potential for depreciation was a powerful deterrent for me. Assuming 20% depreciation a year, then a £65K Tesla would be "costing" over £1000 a month just in depreciation alone.

However, the Tesla Model S has apparently so far had lower depreciation than any other car in the UK[0], according to CAP Black Book ("the industry benchmark for used car values"[1]). Presumably this is in large part due to its relative scarcity (still a 2 month lead time for a new one, so an instantly-available second hand one becomes more attractive). Quite how long that situation holds remains to be seen.

[0] [http://evobsession.com/cap-black-book-teslas-retain-value- be...](http://evobsession.com/cap-black-book-teslas-retain-value-better-car- market/)

[1] [http://www.cap.co.uk/en/products-and-services/black- book/](http://www.cap.co.uk/en/products-and-services/black-book/)

EDIT: The 20% depreciation was a rough estimate based on the Resale Value Guarantee if you buy on finance. Using figures of £64,600 cash price, £72,477 if bought on finance, and £37,584 Guaranteed Minimum Future Value after 3 years, then the actual "worst case" depreciation would be around 18% per year over 3 years.

<comment><USER9> I don't think lead time is relevant here. Built to spec lead times are generally much longer for upmarket ICE cars.

</comment></comment><comment><USER10> I have exactly these dynamics with my 2013 Nissan Leaf. I leased it, assuming depreciation would be brutal on it. And it was, in fact, Nissan just offered me $5,000 credit to buy it off them, meaning I got to finance far less of the depreciation than I should have, and some corporate arm is going to take the writeoff for me.

I was going to buy it, but the technology is changing so quickly, it seems almost pointless. On the other hand, what is the minimum a low mileage four year old electric car would be worth, even if its range is not up to industry standards? It's hard to imagine it would be worth less than $6k. If it is, the electric car depreciation will drive other used car values down.

Nissan is offering lease extensions, typically the stupidest possible way to pay for driving a car, but in this case, I think it's probably a good idea. The internal pressure to innovate against GM and Tesla means they are going to be aggressively obsoleting these older cars.

</comment><comment><USER11> > There is a $7500 federal tax rebate on a new electric car, so the moment you > drive it off the lot, its blue book value drops an additional $7500.

But isn't that fine because you got the $7500 anyway?

<comment><USER12> Maybe, but when you buy your car it's important to realize that these $7,500 are not just free money, they have a direct impact on your car resell value.

So if you buy a leaf that starts at $30,000, get rebates to $20,000, you must remember that since anyone can get it new for $20,000 that's the actual "new" value to take before you apply depreciation.

In other words you're not really buying a $30k car for $20k, you're buying a $20k car.

<comment><USER13> So it follows that right before the rebate ends is the best time to buy?

<comment><USER14> Correct.

But only if the reason why the rebate is ending is a breakthrough in technology that will cut the price of a new one by more than the rebate in 2-3 -- which is in a sense what happened with solar subsidies in a lot of places.

</comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER15> Since people would start to want to buy cars more frequently because of the constant increate in performance/features (which the article is saying will be faster than the current state of motor innovation), would the car manufacturers be able to offer lower-cost models that would be bought every 3/4 years.

They could recoup the money from cheaper cars from the faster purchase cycle.

Or else move to a leasing model (this is becoming more popular with people I know in the UK, Ireland).

<comment><USER16> > _would the car manufacturers be able to offer lower-cost models that would > be bought every 3 /4 years._

I think people buying new cars every 3 or 4 years is already the status quo, regardless of cost. That's the average lease/finance period (though financing duration is increasing).

<comment><USER17> > I think people buying new cars every 3 or 4 years is already the status quo, > regardless of cost. That's the average lease/finance period (though > financing duration is increasing).

Not where I come from. Most of the folks I know are sitting on 8+ year old cars.

Leasing is useless in the US at this point because you are on the hook for the full price of the car if you get in an accident and total it.

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER18> Assuming that the article is correct and that adoption is being hampered by concerns about secondhand values, rebates and diminishing relative performance, then leasing would seem to offer the best option. You can always then turn in you existing model for a better one after a couple of years.

However, this doesn't seem that green. You might not be pushing clouds of particulates into the air around your home, but there is still the power consumed in manufacturing a new car for you every 2 years.

Perhaps, the Riversimple model would also work for electric cars. They sell you mobility as a service - and the motivation to keep you moving efficiently remains with them. In theory this should force them to keep the vehicle upgradable. [http://riversimple.com/how-the-business- works/](http://riversimple.com/how-the-business-works/)

The comparison with phones is interesting. We are starting to get phones with batteries that can't be changed. Do we now just plan to throw them away every 2 years, or are we actually losing interest and need to be forced to upgrade?

<comment><USER19> But when you lease, at the end the vehicles are refurbed and sold on. And if they aren't then they will be almost totally recycled nowadays.

</comment></comment><comment><USER20> Current oil prices make electronic cars a total personal economic loss.

<comment><USER21> Perhaps at face value, and only at this exact moment in time. It would be interesting to see examine both the hidden and extrinsic costs of both sorts of vehicles. I believe that maintenance/performance of electric cars ends up being less in lifetime costs than combustion - that's a relatively well- studied area, and narrows the amortized gap between electric and combustion. What hasn't been studied much, and may be interesting to examine, are the extrinsic costs of both types of cars. Take health expenses for instance - does owning a combustion vehicle have an effect on an owner's health, vs electric ownership? Would this effect be reflected in higher healthcare costs later on? At the macro level, if emissions were reduced dramatically by mass replacement by electric vehicles, would aggregate healthcare costs decrease as well?

</comment></comment><comment><USER22> I've read fairly similar takes comparing EVs to the digital camera. I'm very interested to see what ends up happening, but my guess is the car market will be quite unique.

I do think the author is overestimating the importance of peripheral functions of cars.

<comment><USER23> By peripheral do you mean things like entertainment systems and apps? If so I agree. However the author specifically emphasized the importance of the computer and it's associated software. I've got to think that entails things like autonomous (or assisted) driving capability as seen in the recent Tesla updates as well as things like improved accident avoidance, "hailing" features, or self-maintenance. I can certainly see how these software improvements would be compelling.

</comment></comment><comment><USER19> Them child miners had better get digging cobalt faster !

[https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2016/01/Child- labour-...](https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2016/01/Child-labour- behind-smart-phone-and-electric-car-batteries/)

</comment><comment><USER24> Here's a question I've always wanted to ask someone about electric cars: Why don't the companies make cars with detachable batteries, and basically do a battery 'swap' in the charging stations, so that the charging time becomes very little, if people want to?

<comment><USER23> I guess people didn't care.

[http://fortune.com/2015/06/10/teslas-battery-swap-is- dead/](http://fortune.com/2015/06/10/teslas-battery-swap-is-dead/)

</comment></comment><comment><USER25> As the long as the charging is not way faster I do not see mass adoption.

If you're using cars just in the city then charging is no issue but for long distance travel it is one. Only way is to own at least two cars but this can't be the solution.

<comment><USER16> > _If you 're using cars just in the city then charging is no issue but for > long distance travel it is one._

Yeah, I'm also curious how this pans out. Generally, people traveling long distances on the Tesla SC network route say, "No big deal, I stop for 20 minutes to stretch, charge, and away I go."

But what does that scenario look like when there are millions of EVs on the road? Imagine it took 20 minutes to fill up with fuel? The lines would be horrendous. Travel during prime vacation time and they already are on some routes.

<comment><USER26> Presumably the number of quick charge locations will grow if electric cars become normal. They won't be free (even tesla is walking back that free forever promise).

States could let companies lease spots at rest stops.

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER27> Most people buy a car every three years. Sounds similar to how often people switch cell phones. I don't think electric cars change much in regards to people always wanting something different or the shiny new model.

The awesome thing about the Tesla is all the over the air updates. Other car makers want you to buy the new model to get the new features.

I worked in the car biz for a long time.

<comment><USER28> _> Most people buy a car every three years._

This is shocking to me. Are you in the US? I'm pretty sure it's more like 10 years here in the UK.

<comment><USER29> Pretty much the only people who own cars for just 3 years are those who are leasing.

The average car on the road is over 11 years old in the US and average length of ownership for new cars is over 6 years. [1]

[1] [http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/2015/07/29/Here-s-Why- American...](http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/2015/07/29/Here-s-Why-Americans- Are-Keeping-Their-Cars-Longer-Ever)</comment></comment></comment>


MagLev - Transparent, distributed object space for Ruby - <AUTHOR> http://maglev.github.com/

<comment><USER2> This was pretty interesting when announced back in 2008, but I thought the project was dead. Are there plans to update it to 1.9? They posted some optimistic benchmarks back then, how do they compare to modern VM competition? I'm interested to know more, but I'd like to see a bit more info and context.

<comment><USER3> > but I thought the project was dead

"MagLev 1.0.0 was released on October 31, 2011"

</comment></comment><comment><USER4> [https://github.com/MagLev/maglev/tree/master/examples/rails/...](https://github.com/MagLev/maglev/tree/master/examples/rails/myapp)

link to example rails 3.1 app if anyone is interested

<comment><USER5> Object persistance works with ActiveRecord?

<comment><USER6> On Sqlite???[https://github.com/MagLev/maglev/blob/master/examples/rails/...](https://github.com/MagLev/maglev/blob/master/examples/rails/myapp/config/database.yml)

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER7> Built on top of GemStone/S, aka GemStone Smalltalk.

</comment><comment><AUTHOR> Apologies for the "editorialized" title, but the actual page's title is lacking in context.

<comment><USER8> No problem. Makes sense to me.

I agree completely. I hope this article has legs.

<comment><USER9> Errmm... what's with all the similar comments across multiple posts?

<http://news.ycombinator.com/threads?id=jwallaceparker>

<comment><USER8> OMG. It looks like a housemate had some fun with my account last night. Ugh.

</comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER10> Does anyone have any experience with this? Is it stable and fast enough for serious work?

<comment><USER7> It's built on top of GemStone/S which is an incredibly mature object database/persistance mechanism, while I can not speak for MagLev itself, if the guys at GemStone Inc, now VMware, are prepared to push this out as a v1.0, then I would be willing to bet yes.

Caveat is that while the Ruby implementation on top may not be 100% compatible with standard ruby (again I can't comment) the underlying technology is bulletproof, these guys have been doing object persistance w/ very high tps for 25+ years

This is an exciting technology, and if I worked with ruby at all, I would definitely be checking it out.

<comment><USER7> Sorry thought I'd throw in a link to the GemStone/S product site

<http://www.gemstone.com/products/gemstone>

My specific experience is with GLASS

<http://seaside.gemstone.com/>

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER11> Aren't continuations being removed from Ruby?</comment>