A $330,000 home for $16? Texas adverse possession law - <AUTHOR> http://www.wfaa.com/news/local/Texas-Law-Lets-Stranger-Move-Into-330000-Home-125528248.html <comment><USER2> At least as it currently stands, this case seems to mostly have to do with difficulties of eviction, especially when the house is in a weird ownership status. He hasn't been living on the land nearly long enough to actually have any real rights through adverse possession (roughly, "squatter's rights"), and could be evicted by the owner at any time. He just seems to think, possibly correctly, that eviction is unlikely for a variety of reasons, and so hopes to stay long enough that adverse possession _will_ become relevant, if he de- facto lives in the house long enough without being evicted.

The main thing that keeps him "legal" in a certain sense is that, due to particularities of Texas law, once he's filed that document, it's a civil dispute over ownership, not a criminal case, so police won't evict him for trespassing unless a court resolves the civil dispute first, and orders eviction. He's betting that nobody is going to get around to pursuing that case, even though they would probably win if they did (since he does not in fact own the property, either _de jure_ or through sufficiently long de-facto possession).

<comment><USER3> Under Texas law it likely will take 10 years for the squatter to acquire title via adverse possession.[1][2] In the meantime, whoever is the true owner can sue in civil court at any time to have the squatter evicted.

I can see why the police didn't want to get involved when it was only the neighbors who complained. If the record owner were to complain (the one who walked away), the police might well arrest the squatter for trespassing.

[1] <http://www.lonestarlandlaw.com/Adverse.html>

[2] <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adverse_possession>

<comment><USER4> In Illinois you get 20 years, and must possess the property continuously, in actuality, open and notoriously and exclusively. The occupation also must be hostile. In all these regards, the burden of proof is on the person trying to claim adverse possession.

My question for you, as a lawyer who might know this: can you beat an adverse possession claim simply by giving the squatter permission? Would a written notice permitting occupation for, say, 60 days, reset the clock on "continuous hostile actual occupation"?

<comment><USER5> Given the article it sounds like he's satisfied all of the conditions, everyone wants him out (hostile), he's filed the paperwork (open), he's had it written about in the paper (notorious), and he's established residence by camping in the living room.

Even if he doesn't get the house he's still living rent free.

<comment><USER6> Rent free, but living without water and electricity (not to mention the respect of your neighbors) has got to suck, especially in Texas.

<comment><USER7> In South Carolina, I met a cabbie who was renovating a big Federal style house in the north part of town. No furnace, and certainly no AC. He was also camped out in the living room, and doing all of the work himself. Got a $20,000 community reinvigoration loan from the government to help him out.

</comment></comment></comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER8> "If he wants the house, buy the house like everyone else had to," Lowrie said. "Get the money, buy the house."

My personal opinion is good on the guy, if hes smart enough to find a way to legally obtain a house like this then more power to him. Mrs Lowrie is just pissed she didnt get the same opportunity.

<comment><USER4> This person is gaming a law designed to protect homeowners from spurious litigation†. He knows full well he has no moral right to the property ("adverse selection" codes are not an invitation to utilize unused property). He's taking advantage of someone else's misfortune in a long shot bid to poach property.

It seems weird to me that anyone would cheer him on. Within reasonable limits, a shorter time based hurdle to adverse possession claim is more homeowner- friendly. Texas is on the lower side at 10 years. The only possible outcome to a spate of bad-faith adverse possession claims is for the state to jack the limit up to 20 or 30 years.

† _More commonplace application of adverse possession: I build a new garage, but somehow get the property line wrong and impinge on my neighbor. Nobody notices. Later, I sell my house to you. A couple years after that, my old neighbor sues you._

<comment><USER9> > _"He knows full well he has no moral right to the property_

Throughout the Americas, the same logic that one can claim ownership of unused land underpins most land titles - e.g. the original entitlement of most of Texas was made on the basis that the land was underused. One need only look at the sovereign land grants which most title histories in the US begin with.

<comment><USER10> If you go far back enough, all land ownership is based on "might makes right". There's always a genocide or war at some point in the process.

As it happens, the organized might (the government) has decided to maintain and enforce a regulated market in real estate, largely to everyone's benefit.

</comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER11> The TV station was actually helping his cause by running this story since one of the requirements is "open and notorious use of the property." The use of the property must be so visible and apparent that it gives notice to the legal owner that someone may assert claim. The posting of no trespassing signs that they talked about also improves his claim to the home.

<comment><USER12> Letting the neighbors know and a sign or two is probably plenty for that. Once you meet the requirement anything extra isn't contributing.

<comment><USER13> And by running the story, the rightful owner might become aware of the situation and take action.

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER14> _"Please tell us about the time you, Kenneth Robinson, most successfully hacked some (non-computer) system to your advantage."_

</comment><comment><USER15> Curious that the neighbors would rather have an unmaintained and abandoned property sit vacant and all of the potential associated problems with that rather than occupied by someone who presumably has an interest in keeping it up.

<comment><USER4> The neighbors would prefer that the market for houses clears, preferably at a favorable price but in any case at _some_ price, so that the people residing in their neighborhood have a safe enough claim in the property to invest in it.

By locking up a property in pointless litigation, this person has taken one house in the neighborhood and made it illiquid. The squatter is extremely unlikely to prevail in the long run. The incentives are not set up for them to, say, plant trees or properly rebuild roofs. In fact, the incentives are the opposite: the rational squatter does the bare minimum required to claim continuous actual possession, while investing in some other property where maintenance and improvements promise an actual return on investment. The incentive structure for squatting almost begs for meth labs.

Adverse possession isn't the state's way of making sure houses are put to good use.

<comment><USER16> It's already illiquid - the current mortgaged owner has fled without putting the house on the market. If it were a case of just a few houses, as in the normal economy, I'd agree with you, but there are a _whole shitload_ of houses in similar situations in the United States right now. This squatter is a better neighbor than a crack house. (Unless he decides to diversify.)

If the neighbors really want a say in it, they're free to pony up the money, track down the owner, and fight their own court battle to buy the place and then rent or sell to somebody they'd rather see there. It would probably be pretty cheap, actually, even with legal fees. But people always find it easier to say "You can't do that" than to say "We can do that."

<comment><USER17> But if the owner didn't pay, the mortgage company - and by extension, whoever got the rights to that debt - can foreclose on the house and sell it, no? I assume whatever company know owns that mortgage wants to recover their losses by selling it ASAP.

<comment><USER16> Maybe. If they still have the paperwork. And if they can sell it. I mean, I got _my_ house for $8K, of which the bank got $4K, on an outstanding mortgage of something like $56K. And there are lots of vacant houses - the city actually demolished one last winter that was owned by Deutsche Bank because they hadn't even responded to letters from the city.

And that's for the mortgage holders that are still in business. This one isn't. Presumably someone holds their assets - but my guess is they're in even more frightful a mess.

</comment></comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER18> I'm pretty happy with the similar "squatter's rights" laws. Abandoned property is generally a drag on a community (e.g. lower property values, danger to children, haven for criminals). If someone is willing to provide upkeep in such a precarious situation for years and the owner doesn't protest, I'd love to see them take possession.

<comment><USER4> That's not why we have squatter's rights laws. As a rational economic matter, squatters are not incentivized to provide good upkeep; in most states, the only thing that requires them to perform _any_ upkeep are village building codes.

<comment><USER19> > the only thing that requires [incentivizes] them to perform _any_ upkeep are > village building codes.

Well, and the fact that if they don't scrape and repaint the peeling paint in the living room, they have to live in a living room with peeling paint.

I just came back from fixing my bike at a pizzería that's been squatted for about ten years now by a group of local anarchists and other socialists, who have converted it into a community center. Twice a week they have bike-fixing workshops, where they teach you to fix your bike and supply you with the tools and the parts you need. (And solicit donations.) The place is a lot better maintained than many buildings I've been in around here.

If your beliefs about incentives and rational economic matters fail to describe how people actually behave, you should revise your beliefs.

(Yes, squatting is risky, because you could lose everything you've worked for. It would be particularly amusing if you were really arguing that risking working for years and then losing everything is _irrational_ on a web site _devoted to high-tech startups_.)

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER20> Just reading the article and the way his neighbors were complaining on him, I knew he had to be black. And then I watched the video and my hunch was confirmed.

<comment><USER21> I bet you are right ... those neighbors are working a little too hard for something that is only a minor irritant at worst, and at best could be a big benefit to the neighborhood. There simply isn't motive for all the hours and energy they're investing in fighting it. Unless there's some other motive involved. Probably more like classism than racism.

<comment><USER22> Lol, I guessed at that too, I thought classism but racism was a possible too.

Though, now that he is one of those black people it is safe to say that the neighbors are right and people like that should not be allowed to vote irregardless of laws written in the mid 1800's. I hope everyone makes it out Sunday night to the neighbor hood klan meeting so we can all praise white jesus, drink beer, and talk crap about all those seedy black people.

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER23> This is a great example of "hacking":

1) Research a system to find a vulnerability 2) Exploit the vulnerability 3) Profit

Good for him but I think the real challenge will be keeping the house over the next x amount of years until his name is on the title.

</comment><comment><USER24> I'm guessing all these neighbors really wished they had gone into the house and squatted. Think about it, they were right there, right close to the big $300,000 bounty, and they just didn't know that it was there for the taking (legally).

</comment><comment><USER25> Explanation of Texas adverse possession law: <http://www.lonestarlandlaw.com/Adverse.html>

</comment><comment><USER26> If his plan does succeed and he does end up with the title, won't the taxes on the house be an enormous burden? I wonder what his plan is for that.

<comment><USER27> > If his plan does succeed and he does end up with the title, won't the taxes > on the house be an enormous burden?

Enormous relative to what? The taxes may be less than low-end rent.

> I wonder what his plan is for that.

His plan better be to be paying the taxes now.

If no one is paying the taxes, the folks who want taxes are going to foreclose and boot the guy out. His "squatters rights" won't help him against that.

<comment><USER28> Texas property taxes are the third highest in the nation [1]. About 1.81% of the property value annually, or $5,430 in this case with a home value of $300,000. That's about $450/mo., which seems reasonable for low end rent in some parts of Texas. Property taxes vary by county, so Denton may have a higher or lower property tax than the average in Texas.

[1]: [http://dallasdirt.dmagazine.com/2010/10/05/texas-property- ta...](http://dallasdirt.dmagazine.com/2010/10/05/texas-property-taxes-third- highest-in-nation-percentage-of-median-value/)

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER21> I'm laughing at the idiot neighbors. They have no motive to oppose his ownership other than jealousy or exclusivity (snobbishness). It is better for their neighborhood home values that the guy stay there so someone will cut the freaking grass and keep the place clean.

</comment><comment><USER29> I just did some perusing of the records against this property and my bet is this guy is screwed now that the news media has picked it up. The mortgage company didn't "go out of business." According to deed records, the mortgage is owned by one or more of: Countrywide Home Loans, CWABS Asset-Backed Certificates[...], and ReconTrust Company of Texas. I can't tell what the second entity's full name might be (Denton County's deed image server is down and the name is longer than the data page shows), but the other two are now subsidiaries of Bank of America.

Why does this matter? Bank of America never actually foreclosed, so the original owner[1] is still the owner of record. The original owner can still contest the adverse possession in short order without dealing with the mortgage mess, assuming he cares to do so. In addition, BofA can foreclose and then evict the current occupant.

1 - Not naming the current owner here, but it is a public record.

</comment><comment><USER7> I spent one Saturday helping a friend to pound in fenceposts for a minimal fence because of this Texas law.

If you ever have to do this, buy a lead pipe. Otherwise, the top of a fencepost is an annoying high target to hit with a sledgehammer! You simply put the lead pipe around the metal fencepost and you use it like a pile-driver against a couple of flanges close to the bottom.

If the neighbors are too stupid/lazy to contact the owner of record and do something about this, instead of complaining to the cops who have no authority in this case, then they deserve to have their desires frustrated.

</comment><comment><USER30> Why don't the neighbors find the guy with the deed to the house, and pay him a few k$ to throw out the squatter?

</comment><comment><USER31> " _Avidavit_ of adverse possession"?

</comment><comment><USER32> those jealous fucks

</comment><comment><USER33> You can do this with code as well. Migrate from sourceforge, put an -ng on the name and put it on github.</comment>


Meta-analysis finds little evidence for the Macbeth effect - <AUTHOR> https://digest.bps.org.uk/2018/11/16/another-social-psychology-classic-bites-the-dust-meta-analysis-finds-little-evidence-for-the-macbeth-effect/amp <comment><USER2> And the Replication crisis continues... [1]

Seems like the big secret is small initial sample sizes. For example, the original three Macbeth studies: 60, 27, 32. Later tried with N=153, 148, 266, 210, etc. and surprise surprise...

Another example, the "Power posing will make you act bolder" study, originally with only N=42. Later tried with N=200 by researchers at the Univirsity of Zurich, and the effect disappeared.

And the list goes on [2]

[1] [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Replication_crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Replication_crisis) [2] [https://digest.bps.org.uk/2016/09/16/ten-famous- psychology-f...](https://digest.bps.org.uk/2016/09/16/ten-famous-psychology- findings-that-its-been-difficult-to-replicate/)

</comment><comment><USER3> Is there a place where major scientific findings are searchable to easily see the level of evidence supporting, whether they have been replicated, etc?

<comment><USER4> No, the best you can do is a find a recent review article.

Only rarely will you find direct replications in the case of medical and social research though, so as a heuristic you can just assume the evidence for everything is weak.

Also, this reminds me of that paper where they "discovered" that if you spray fart smell in a room that people are more disgusted by the thought of a guy rubbing "his bare genitals along the kitten's body". [https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2562923/](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2562923/)

</comment></comment><comment><USER5> I wish that rather than being shown alphabetically, the image would show a funnel plot ([https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Funnel_plot](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Funnel_plot))

</comment><comment><USER6> Deep down, I think I've always known it. There's no way the whole theater will come down just because you mention the play.

</comment><comment><USER7> *her</comment>


Tweets tell scientists how quickly we normalize unusual weather - <AUTHOR> https://phys.org/news/2019-02-tweets-scientists-quickly-unusual-weather.html <comment><USER2> One factor would be the speed of communication and interaction would help expedite the normalisation of the weather.

Though we clearly have an ability to adjust, an area this is highlighted would be driving in snow. FIrst snow, drivers are weary, you get accidents, snow sits about for a week (increases even) and people adjust. Same with temperature changes as a whole, up or low, you adjust and after a week or two, you have a new norm.

What needs to be looked at are unusual weather that is short lived and unusual weather that lasts a couple of weeks. As the latter, whilst still unusual weather, would of been the norm for a two week period and you can't expect people to be as reactionary to it on day 14 as you would on day 1 of such an event.

I would question the usage of social media as an insight into any human traits, as would it encompass a full snapshot into personalities when some groups more represented than others upon social media platforms.</comment>


India coronavirus: The 'mystery' of low Covid-19 death rates - happy-go-lucky https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-52435463 <comment><USER2> This should not be a mystery at all. India locked down entire country (no state rights in Epidemics laws), despite federal structure. Very few things can be bought, even Amazon is only delivering "essentials."

But more importantly, India has been contact tracing like a greedy algorithm on steroids since case #1. There was a positive case in a condo nearby mine. The entire condominium building and adjacent locality is sealed. Not a lockdown, sealed. Nobody in, nobody out. The authorities spent over 9 hours interviewing all family members, neighbors, and friends of the infected for contact tracing. Every contact is being monitored, with police showing up randomly to make sure of no symptoms and adherence to home quarantine.

People are self policing mainly to avoid police, but they are self policing each other because nobody wants their buildings sealed. It really is working, I see people unwilling to hand over their credit cards in shops insisting to tap to avoid infections. In my state, there are only 85 active infections, only 2 are residents of my city, and even then I'm given gloves and sanitizer when I enter minimarts, with only 10 minute allowance to go and shop with maximum 4 shoppers allowed inside.

Edit: It becomes a big news when a positive case is found nearby. There is a distributed effort of volunteers to monitor infections ([http://covid19india.org](http://covid19india.org)). There is no way government can lie about numbers.

<comment><USER3> India going all Wuhan on the virus. The difference between India and the US particularly is that it's lockdown lite in USA while it's full on there. You can't take a walk, you can't drive farther than 3 KM, cops will kick your butt and impound your vehicle. And the population by and large listens, while we have morons here who want lockdown eased to get haircuts.

<comment><USER4> there is no evidence for that whatsoever. You have absolutely no data on what takes place in India - it is a gigantic country with gigantic variation across. Plus the families are much larger, all confined together. When the train was shut down millions traveled back home for days on packed buses, it unlikely that any lockdown could have had such a pronounced effect so quickly.

The truth probably lies elsewhere, perhaps the population is overall a lot less susceptible, perhaps the genetics is such that adverse reactions are far less common, perhaps the weather conditions make the virus less virulent etc.

There is no way in hell that India was more locked down than Spain - <AUTHOR> Spain, with a population that is of a tiny fraction of India is still producing many more cases per day even today, more than a month after a full lockdown.

If anything Spain compared to say Sweden shows that brutal lockdowns don't work, the disease would have taken the same course had there been much less strict measures.

<comment><USER5> India has some of the densest urban environments on the planet... Mumbai, Calcutta, Howraw, etc.

And, it has pockets of density that are mind-boggling, such as the slums at Dharavi. 9 to 10 people in a room, families taking 'shifts' in the same living areas, 100+ people per latrine in some parts.

Yet, absent a massive cover-up, no reports of mass deaths.

The same goes for many of the world's other dense cities: Manila, Caloocan, Port-au-Prince, Kathmandu, Subang Jaya, Tokyo (not to mention the dozen or so 10mill+ cities in China.)

When this is mentioned, the response is invariably that "they have an amazing lockdown system with state-of-the art contact tracing." Or, "well, THOSE people are very submissive and obedient to authority."

It's not believable.

What does it even mean to "lock-down" Dharavi?! That's absurd...

Millions of deaths were predicted. There aren't millions of deaths. Great. The lethality of the virus was grossly over-estimated. Yet, instead of happily acknowledging this, there are some bending over backwards trying to maintain that the Virus magically avoids places like Dharavi (or homeless camps in LA, or San Fran, or the elderly-populated Florida) because of government pronouncements.

I don't live in Dharavi. I've been there. And, I know there are plenty of people from India on this site. Maybe I'm wrong, but I cannot wrap my head around ANY lockdown policy that would make a rat's ass worth of a difference to virus spread in Dharavi. Ditto for Mexico City, the slums in Monterrey, Lagos, and the urban/slum sprawl in the metro areas of S. America.

<comment><USER4> this is the elephant in the room,

it is not fashionable to talk about, it does not fit the current narrative - the scientific "group think" when it comes to the virus is incredibly strong

</comment></comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER6> I can give some ground level information. I live in a very densely populated street (total length is just two hundred meters, my guess is at least a thousand people live here). No one is dying here without others noticing. Further, there's a great amount of scrutiny into whether anyone's sick (see the reports of doctors getting beaten up even by the cops).

As far as I know, no one has died in this street in a month. The ambulance hasn't entered the street either. So unless there's a great conspiracy which most of us in the street are unaware, there really doesn't seem to be that many deaths. In fact the death rate is lower than normal, when people normally die, the first ritual is the blowing of a very loud horn in front of their house for an entire day. Haven't heard that in weeks. I live in the middle of the fifth biggest city in the country as well. It's likely many people in the street already have this but it's very unlikely that many or any have died from covid.

For reference, official disease tally for my city is now 570 cases.

<comment><USER7> > Further, there's a great amount of scrutiny into whether anyone's sick (see > the reports of doctors getting beaten up even by the cops).

What? Why are doctors being beaten up? I don't understand.

<comment><USER8> It's very stupid, but a (very) few people see them as potential spreaders of the disease. Public health workers going into the community to find infected people have also been attacked. Also, until recently, suspected COVID patients had to be in hospital -- no home isolation allowed -- and some of these patients (or their relatives) thought that venting their anger on doctors would help.

Unfortunately, the law of large numbers in India means that a "very few" can mean tens of thousands of people.

[1] [https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia- india-52151141](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-52151141)

[2] [https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-13/doctors-c...](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-13/doctors- come-under-attack-in-india-as-coronavirus-stigma-grows)

<comment><USER9> In North American long term care facilities, this is exactly what's happening. In Canada, a ban was put in place to prevent health workers from working in multiple long term care facilities - it was found that infectious material was making its way via health workers from one home to another, all full of high risk populations.

Add in the fact that many hospitals in North America are short on PPE, and some are even preventing nurses and care personnelle from wearing PPE (or to bring their own, etc) - and you can see how much of an issue this can be.

Of course, beating up the doctors is a bad idea, but the roots of the idea that health workers are potential spreaders isn't all that far fetched.

</comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER10> I'm a (foreign) American citizen staying in India and happened to arrive here a few days before lockdown started. I don't understand how this is a mystery: India quickly locked down the entire country and going outdoors was consistently punishable by police hitting people with sticks (thankfully it seems like the brutality has eased up since the start and police are doing things like making people write sorry on the beach or do squats instead) People are taking the virus and situation seriously, without an unusual spike in fake news. You can't even order anything outside a narrowly defined "essentials" category online. Thankfully food delivery is opened up.

To all the Indians here who are in the same situation, phew, I understand your pain. Hopefully this next extension is the last one and then it'll be more limited to hotspots: and we will all be able to order from amazon again soon. I also hope the economy can open quickly and smoothly when the time comes.

<comment><USER11> Did you see police beating people yourself? I have a suspicion that it was made just for camera to scare people.

<comment><USER12> In India there's never a shortage of people (police or civilians) beating each other with sticks. Happened long before COVID and will continue long after.

<comment><USER13> One of the most eye-opening things I've ever seen was the crush of people trying to get on the general admission train car being beaten back with sticks before the train even stopped moving.

</comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER14> Ah yet another cant-be-true-they're-hiding-something article? Surely they can't be doing better than developed countries?

FWIW, India did implement a stronger lockdown much earlier on in the curve than other countries. State and federal authorities went lock-step in their actions, and with consistent messaging. Police enforced the lockdown at times even brutally, getting the point across to the general public. Indians watched UK and US struggle through a denial and late response in disbelief, like watching a car crash in slow motion.

<comment><USER15> This is something that has really struck me during the Corona crisis: the misplaced Western believe of superiority towards Asian countries. I am European and I feel embarrassed about how much arrogance is displayed by some people and governments.

It started already in the beginning, when the virus was spreading rapidly in China. Reports about the failing Chinese authority were all over the place, but nobody seemed to worry that when the virus would eventually reach Europe, we would be in trouble as well. After all how could we, with our superior health system and our governments that would react quickly and rationally on such a trivial threat as this.

When the virus had reached Europe, it had already reached South Korea and Taiwan as well. These countries had learned from the earlier SARS outbreak how to deal with it and thoroughly tested everyone that could possibly have the virus, symptoms or not. The reaction I saw in the media was mostly about the breach in privacy that these measures brought. Surely this was not something that we, as enlightened Western societies, would want. And anyway, what were we frightened of. This virus could never spread so fast in Europe as it did in China, because .. Well because of what actually.

Now that the pandemic has wrecked havoc in the entire Western world and most people are realising that a strategy of first constraining the virus (like in Wuhan) and then testing everybody to contain in (like in South Korea) is the only realistic way to deal with it, one might think that a bit of humbleness towards Asia would be in place. Think again. What we're seeing more and more instead is denial. Investigations are started if the Covid virus was manifactured in a laboratory in Wuhan for instance.

<comment><USER16> I agree with you and I've made the same observation but I don't think it's due to some misplaced sense of superiority.

I think it's simply because it has been a while since disease and pestilence was a worry for the average Western country so the average citizen (and therefore the leaders) are complacent in a sort of "It can't happen here" way. There have been outbreaks such as the AIDS epidemic or swine flu but nothing as impactful, infectious, and at the scale of COVID.

Whereas Asian countries have grappled with issues of SARS, Malaria, AIDS, Polio, and many more in the not so distant past and have learned the importance of taking public health seriously. The experience of the outcome of mismanaging a response to a previous epidemic is still "fresh" so to say in many of these countries. I think a good example of this is how South Korea dealt with SARS and evolved their response to COVID based on the learnings from that.

Lastly I wonder if the prevalence of more communal societies in Asian cultures make a difference. I can imagine it could make the problem worse but it could also be beneficial in the sense of providing strong societal pressures to quarantine/hand wash/social distance/etc.

Edit: And of course the misguided leaders in particular Western countries are not helping. Maybe the US this particular time is just a statistical outlier due to some mismanagement and there is nothing more to read into further than that?

<comment><USER17> > I think it's simply because it has been a while since disease and pestilence > was a worry for the average Western country so the average citizen (and > therefore the leaders) are complacent in a sort of "It can't happen here" > way. There have been outbreaks such as the AIDS epidemic or swine flu but > nothing as impactful, infectious, and at the scale of COVID.

I agree that this is the main factor. Consequently I proposed the concept of the "civilization immune system" to explain how it works: [https://www.sonyasupposedly.com/civilizational-immune- system...](https://www.sonyasupposedly.com/civilizational-immune-systems/)

</comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER8> It's not just COVID-19 deaths, raw death numbers (as measured by death certificates, you cannot cremate/bury people without one) are down as well -- this report has some evidence, including lower business in at crematoriums[1]. This is likely due to the very stringent lockdown in India, and the somewhat underrated fact that traffic collisions and accidents kill huge numbers of people every day in India.

That said, while lower death rates (India's seem to be about half of the world's death rate) are to be celebrated, there are confounding factors.

1) The reported death count are mostly hospital deaths only. Home deaths aren't counted.

2) As the article notes, mis-diagnosing is a problem especially outside hospitals.

But if there's something that genuinely is reducing the death rate, then that's obviously a huge opportunity to study and learn from.

[1] [https://www.livemint.com/news/india/india-s-lower-death- rate...](https://www.livemint.com/news/india/india-s-lower-death-rates-seem- to-defy-global-coronavirus-trend-11587723007584.html)

<comment><USER18> IIRC, during the lockdown, every death is to be notified to the authorities.

<comment><USER19> Is that not normally the case? The pp says that every burial or cremation requires a death certificate, and who else but the authorities has the right to issue a death certificate?

<comment><USER18> The process for getting a death certificate usually takes a couple of weeks to a month or so. And normally, for natural deaths, there is nothing to be reported to anyone.

But during lockdown, reporting is to be done immediately.

</comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER20> It is mainly with a sense of relief (rather than disbelief) that I watch the progression of numbers daily. The lockdown was early and quite stringent and has definitely made a difference. The most stringent lockdown has little chance of being executed effectively in India and there are innumerable cases of people cheerfully ignoring or doing so in desperation. Regardless, the awareness of COVID-19 is extremely high, probably more than any other single critical disease that afflicts us. This should have made a significant difference in influencing the behaviour of the majority. Tests are for the most part only for the symptomatic or with known contact, if asymptomatic. Almost certainly infection cases will be much, much higher. But fatalities are tough to ignore. In today's environment even a death unrelated to COVID causes consternation amongst neighbours and gets known widely. I take that to mean that the fatalities are probably close enough to reality. And that's unbelievably good and I can only hope that it doesn't get bad in the near future.

<comment><USER18> Yup, there is a very large percentage of the population, even in rural areas, that are awareof the danger posed.

Politicians, including the PM have clearly and multiple times explained their actions in a very clear and lucid language. Stateministers also have conveyed the same in a similar manner.

There was no tolerance on stupid questions from the beginning, and a huge emphasis has been put on scientists amd healthcare experts. Most of the experts also did not talk publicly, but advised the politicians.

<comment><USER20> True. There has fortunately been no dithering or mixed messages. The clarity and consistency of the messaging has probably saved India.

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER21> The article while making some valid points is full of insinuations. This is disingenuous.

The main reason for the low death rates is the lock-down/quarantine in place. India did this very quickly and very comprehensively. I would never have believed that such a lock-down would be followed and enforced in India if i were not living through it. It would be interesting to see how quickly the slope changes once the lock-down is lifted.

Other maybe contributing factors are; Sunlight & UV exposure, High Humidity, a healthy younger population, a better immune system (hygiene hypothesis) etc.

Simply said, the "Developed Western Nations" dropped the ball on recognizing the threat and putting in counter-measures and are now paying the price.

<comment><USER22> Most Western nations are doing fine. There's really just a dozen or so countries that have been hit hard, and even then the impact has been uneven within the hardest hit countries.

<comment><USER18> Sorry, for 330 Million people, USA has had 60k deaths from C19 so far, whereas India has had about 1000 deaths in about 1300 Million people.

The western Nations are doing abysmally.

<comment><USER22> You ignored my comment to say what you wanted to say. Many Western nations are doing great. They are handling the pandemic very well and have less strict lockdowns than India.

<comment><USER23> A stringent lockdown in India is not an option but a necessity considering the population. In fact, as others have pointed out, areas with confirmed cases are sealed with all movement in and out of it tightly restricted.

</comment></comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER24> Minor nitpick on reporting : literally every person they quoted with Indian sounding names live and work outside of India. And the lone Indian source they quoted, Prof Reddy, was the only one who lived in India and he was the only one who was not skeptical of the numbers. Not one expert from India was used in the article,besides Prof. Reddy, which is a relatively open society.

<comment><USER18> BBC and a myriad of British mainstream publications are decisively Anti India in their general narrative.

<comment><USER25> The NYT is also notorious for the same narrative building. Anyone who is serious about Indian news knows NYT, BBC et al report stories that are far away from ground realities.

<comment><USER26> With respect to coverage of India, this is definitely true across center and left leaning media in Western countries these days. It has especially come about because the American progressive left has built their political coalition in alignment with Muslim/pro-Muslim groups, which has blinded them to a neutral view. I saw the John Oliver piece on Modi recently, and was shocked to hear how one sided it was from Indian colleagues.

</comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER27> I generally have a very poor opinion of the govt officials in my country owing to some very bad past experiences in India. But this time I too was pleasantly surprised.

My friend lives in a very populated area in Delhi called Tilak nagar and he told me in feb end iirc that the house opposite his has a huge plaque on it that says *Quarantine, this house has a covid patient" put on by police. This was the time when nobody knew how serious this thing was. So yeah it does seem they got some things right too this time.

<comment><USER28> Similar in my Apartment. An air hostess got quarantined for 14 days in her house with a big poster on outside door " Flat under Quarantine ". It was not Red colour because it was not confirmed case. So basically National Disaster Mechanism are quite well planned and implemented.

</comment></comment><comment><USER29> In the state of India that I live in, at least three people have died in the hospital of very Covid-19-like symptoms, but they were not counted as Covid-19 deaths.

Two of double pneumonia, both with travel history, but their tests came up negative. They were both healthy until very recently. One had arrived from the US, where the chances of community-acquiring-pneumonia are low as I gather.

One of cardiac arrest, but AFAIK she wasn't tested because she had no travel history.

<comment><USER30> We shouldn't be including deaths in the Covid-19 total just because they involve similar symptoms. Lots of other problems cause pneumonia and cardiac arrest, and you said yourself that the pneumonia patients tested negative. Apparently healthy people die suddenly all the time, sadly.

<comment><USER29> The RT-PCR test apparently has a very high false negative rate; I've read up to 30% or even 40%.

Also, they had all the other symptoms as well including fever and shortness of breath. One arrived in India with respiratory distress. The other fell ill a week after visiting a Covid hotspot -- Mumbai -- which he managed to visit despite a travel ban because he was a hotshot politician.

<comment><USER31> Where did you read that? Was it a reputable source that cited peer-reviewed data? We use RT-PCR every single day at our company (vaccine development) and we couldn't do our jobs if it performed so abysmally. The RT-PCR is the gold standard when it comes to detection.

<comment><USER29> [https://pubs.rsna.org/doi/10.1148/radiol.2020200432](https://pubs.rsna.org/doi/10.1148/radiol.2020200432)

Sorry, I should have qualified that fully. I meant clinical sensitivity for RT-PCR for SARS-CoV-2 for samples drawn from throat swabs, specifically. I know that my local hospital is only taking throat swabs, not nasal swabs; and all the press photos I've seen for testing in India is of throat swabs.

<comment><USER31> Well, then that's not really the RT-PCR that's at fault, its the way the disease presents itself, that makes it difficult to find a reliable point of sampling. Although, I can see how in casual conversation one might say that the RT-PCR test isn't reliable.

</comment></comment></comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER32> I am not seeing the theory of Vitamin D deficiency being highly correlated with severe outcomes from Covid-19 infections being suggested in the article. Please see links below for this theory:

1) [https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1548/rr-6](https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1548/rr-6)

2) [https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-21211/v1](https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-21211/v1)

3) [https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3585561](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3585561)

</comment><comment><USER33> BBC is a known for its India bashing. This article has no depth and is conjuring up some kind of conspiracy theory. HN quality is going down the drain.

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Criticism_of_the_BBC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Criticism_of_the_BBC)

<comment><USER34> The BBC is known to write about ex-colonies with a certain level of contempt.

There is a thinly veiled nostalgia about British superiority and to an extent still consider the subcontinent to be some sort of 'unfinished work' that still requires 'civilizing'.

I have noticed a similar sentiment among French and Belgian people about their colonies, but I haven't read enough of their media or politics to know how pervasive it is.

<comment><USER33> Françafrique - [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Françafrique](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Françafrique)

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER35> Unfortunately UK government and Boris Johnson failed to take the pandemic seriously. This include BBC too. While the world was watching the kingdom with fear and awe, the establishment had a wandering attention.

<comment><USER36> Agreed re. Boris (but not about the BBC). Boris made easy decisions, not the right ones. He is expedient rather than well-judging, and he was too willing to treat politics as a game of 2 sides rather than trying to unify. Maybe he can learn from this.

</comment></comment><comment><USER37> Unlike what this article tries to subtly hint, there is no massive conspiracy theory stuff going on here. There are too many people in India (with smartphones and cameras and 3G/4G internet) to pull off anything covert. No one here views this as mystery but as a result of country's discipline in lockdown till now. The country imposed an early screening and tight lockdown and people followed it well till now.

<comment><USER38> > Unlike what this article tries to subtly hint, there is no massive > conspiracy theory stuff going on here. There are too many people in India > (with smartphones and cameras and 3G/4G internet) to pull off anything > covert.

So you're saying there's no 5G?

Jokes aside, I would love a breakdown of all different hypotheses here and to revisit them in one year. (Eg therapies, heat/humidity effects, lockdown severity, lockdown timing, genetic factors, strain variations, etc)

</comment></comment><comment><USER39> India is doing the lockdown well. Apartment buildings apparently have taken it on themselves to not allow anyone in and out of the buildings. They let one vendor each for groceries, milk, vegetables, pharmacy etc and that's it. People are not allowed to go out or even play in the yard. And this is not government mandated, the HOA equivalent for apartment buildings are doing it themselves.

</comment><comment><USER40> Germany has suspiciously lower death rates, too... And that's down to the superior healthcare infrastructure there? I was wondering if something similar was happening in India. I was expecting to read about it more from a therapeutic treatment point of view-- Is India doing anything differently that results in higher recovery and lower death rates?

<comment><USER41> Germany tested more heavily than neighbors earlier on, so probably discovered a higher proportion of "mild" cases. Also, Germany _does_ have a superior healthcare infrastructure in some ways compared to the other big EU countries: in 2012, it had about 2.5 times as many ICU beds per capita as Italy, France and Spain, and 4.5 times that of the UK [1], along with more hospital beds overall [2]. The US had somewhat more ICU beds per capita than Germany, but only about a third of the hospital beds in general, so ICU beds are certainly not the only explanation for why it hasn't been quite as bad here.

As important as healthcare infrastructure is, it's worthless to someone without financial access to it, either directly due to lacking insurance or indirectly due to fear of losing one's job due to absence. Extremely few people (but not zero) in Germany would be hesitant to seek treatment for Covid-19 due to either of those worries, compared with a large (and due to the unemployment situation, growing) portion of people in the US. Americans are being told that they won't get surprise bills for Covid-10 treatment, but I imagine more than a few have wondered how a visit to the emergency room would affect their finances if they turned out _not_ to have it, and decided to tough it out a bit too long.

So, if available healthcare infrastructure and individual financial access to that infrastructure are taken together, Germany looks to be ahead of both the other large EU countries and the US, all of which have suffered more deaths per capita these past few awful weeks.

If some of the German states try to get "back to normal" too fast, though, this relatively good situation could change...

[1] [https://www.forbes.com/sites/niallmccarthy/2020/03/12/the- co...](https://www.forbes.com/sites/niallmccarthy/2020/03/12/the-countries- with-the-most-critical-care-beds-per-capita-infographic/)

[2] [https://www.oecd- ilibrary.org/sites/health_glance-2017-62-en...](https://www.oecd- ilibrary.org/sites/health_glance-2017-62-en/index.html?itemId=/content/component/health_glance-2017-62-en)

</comment></comment><comment><USER42> There's a chance that climate is on the India's side here. "High Temperature and High Humidity Reduce the Transmission of COVID-19" [https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3551767](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3551767)

<comment><USER43> Of all the large Brazilian cities, the one that is in a crisis due to the virus is the one with highest temperature and humidity.

</comment></comment><comment><USER44> Poor article, not even a single mention of the most likely reason for low death rate (apart from young population), the weather! Strong Sun (UV light) and high humidity quickly kills the virus. Warm countries like Thailand - despite millions of tourists from Wuhan - have low death rates. In Spain cold Madrid was affected much worse than sunnier south. Summer will soon rapidly kill of the virus in southern Europe.

<comment><USER45> From the article: "Yet others talk about the possibilities of the presence of a less virulent strain of the virus in India, along with the possibility that its hot weather was diminishing the contagion. Both these claims are not backed by any evidence."

<comment><USER46> > "Both these claims are not backed by any evidence"

There is evidence for the weather claim, but it's complicated by other factors.

Multiple studies [1] have observed a correlation between weather/UV and severity of outbreak.

Wuhan, Milan, Madrid, Qom, UK, Korea and Northern USA have all fit a comparable weather profile during their outbreaks.

The problem is that this virus seems to be more durable/resilient than other seasonal viruses (flu, common cold), and even in hot climates, many people still spend a lot of time congregated in air conditioned office/residential buildings, shopping centres, public transportation systems, etc.

So it's true that hot weather alone is not enough to end an outbreak.

But it can reduce the extent/severity, and the observed evidence seems to bear that out.

[1] [https://www.ft.com/content/c8ed3692-6db3-11ea-9bca- bf503995c...](https://www.ft.com/content/c8ed3692-6db3-11ea-9bca-bf503995cd6f)

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER47> Hey, guys I'm from India. There is a very strict lock down here. It has been there for a long time now. My city (Bangalore) did the lockdown a bit early. Like one more comment down this thread, there will be really loud horns in front of houses. That has not been going on around here.

</comment><comment><USER48> India's median age is 28.1, US' is 38.1, Spain's is 42.7 and Italy's is 45.5.

<comment><USER49> the average life expectancy (especially for males) is relevant here. India's at 70 yo, while UK is 80

</comment></comment><comment><USER50> No news channel is unbiased these days but I don't know of any other news source that has as much criticism as BBC. They have a long history[1] of spreading misinformation and hate aginst many countries (specially India).

1\. [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Criticism_of_the_BBC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Criticism_of_the_BBC)

</comment><comment><USER51> While the reported deaths may be low, the 'they are hiding something' attitude is not helpful. India cannot do the level of testing that western countries do due to the humongous population. I can very well assure you in India you cannot hide mass deaths like China. A distant relative died of cardiac arrest and the measures were so strict that in a highly social society where paying respects to a deceased is considered a basic duty, only 5 close people were allowed. The body was directly cremated by specially appointed staff at the hospital.

While i am worried about the fact that social distancing is difficult to implement in India what has helped so far are the following measures:

1\. Extremely strict lockdown - i have not gotten out of my home in more than a month, thankfully essential workers keep the essential supplies running. 2\. I think BCG vaccination especially amongst young folks makes a difference and i think the immunity is higher amongst Indians (hypothesis) 3\. Summer heat (hypothesis) 4\. India had very early measures towards screening people coming from other countries since Jan which helped.

The cases and deaths will undoubtedly increase, however the question i have a reasonable answer to is : Do you think the best and timely measures were taken given the constraints ? Undoubtedly yes.

Ever since the outbreak happened the usual suspects have been churning out article after article about the low numbers and it seems like some of the vested interests were expecting us to lead the world in deaths instead of EU and US.

For a second the folks need to commend the work done and what was done correctly. The sacrifice of millions of Indians who are following the lockdown diligently.

As a country with limited infrastructure we cannot work without social distancing, yet somehow we have survived through this period, which is undoubtedly a miracle. This has flattened the curve and the overworked healthcare professionals have a difficult year or 2 ahead of them to ensure the no of actively infected remains manageable.

<comment><USER52> A single case of suspected swine flu was reported so fast across whatsapp and social media. People don't understand how prevalent social media is in India and think people are just dying at homes. The BBC definitely is anti-India.

<comment><USER23> Calling them anti-India is a bit too much. Their shallow analysis might be the result of less people on the ground.

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER52> Anecdotally I know ex-colleagues who got Covid19 in the US and one of them has died.

I literally know of no one who is sick, much less with covid19, here in India in my friend circle, in my family circle and across the 1000+ employee company I work in. Either there's asymptomatic sick in my circle or no one has it.

Granted I am anxious, and hope things don't get worse, but international media has been pathetic on reporting this. I like the work that local The Print is doing. Very informative reporting from them - [https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCuyRsHZILrU7ZDIAbGASHdA](https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCuyRsHZILrU7ZDIAbGASHdA)

Here's a good example and relevant to this discussion - [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yWuRA_2by-Q](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yWuRA_2by-Q)

<comment><USER53> Print's reporting has been a mixed bag.

For eg, the last video compares deaths vs testing in a poor country like Bolivia — situated many miles away from global hotspots to that of Belgium's — one of Europe's headquarters. It seems to suggest that increase in testing and quick isolation is somewhat of a "subjective" factor and doesn't help India.

This, completely disregarding factors like geography, demographics, Bolivia's first case landing a month after Belgium's, and Belgium being one of the few countries in Europe to actually count non-hospital deaths and more.

There's some confirmation bias here.

<comment><USER52> True, but same is applicable to India. India shouldn't have to test more just because US has to.

<comment><USER53> I don't think that was ever the argument. Increased testing has been recommended by the WHO, has noticeably helped prevent a bigger outbreak impact in South Korea & Germany and quick isolation makes a lot of sense for a disease that is asymptomatic in most patients.

</comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER54> I know of an old man who died last week in an area a short way out of Hyderabad. That area was a Red Zone (presumably due to COVID-19 cases near it), so movement in and out of the area was very much more restricted even than usual. A couple of days before he died, they tried taking him to hospital, but were told that the hospital had no doctors there that could help. Next day ditto. It was only hours before he died that they let him in at all.

In this case there's a fair probability that he would have died anyway (probable generic cause of death: old age), and there's no reason to suspect any connection with COVID-19 in his death. But you can definitely have deaths indirectly caused by the coronavirus, because doctors are busy dealing with other things, or even can't get to the hospital due to lockdown!

</comment><comment><USER34> Rant Alert ! My response will come off as ranty, because I am a bit annoyed.

India takes strong and well executed action on lockdown. People in the West continue to loiter in the streets. ( I see it here in Boston at least, one of US's hot spots). West be like, "India's low death number is a mystery"

At this point, it almost sounds like the western media is mourning the lack of deaths in India. As though to say, "there is no way a "shithole country" can ever be well prepared for a pandemic. Hopefully India gets worse, so we can tend to our wounds by saying that at least it isn't as bad as it's in India."

When a lockdown works wonders in China or Korea -> "Swift response, responsible Govt. India does the same, and it's still a mystery.

Some points

* India has the world's most drastic lockdown in order. More stringent than China at their COVID peak.

* Indian public health is at the very least experienced, (I think competent as well, but opinions there may vary) with national epidemics.

* Indians know what mortality feels like. <\- My opinion, but the west simply doesn't fear death the same way. For good reason, but in India a silent biological killer of millions is something people intuitively understand. In part due to wounds of Plague, TB, Aids, Malaria and Polio, all being quite fresh in memory.

* More fact, Indians also know what national emergencies and curfews feels like. We have had a few in the last few decades, and some have been nearly as drastic.

* India relied strongly on ICMR (it's medical research body) over WHO or the US's recommendations. That included using funding to push a lockdown far earlier into the spread than other nations, consistently recommending masks and contact tracing. On the other hand, testing and ventilator recommendations were not taken and it has worked. The death rate of COVID patients on ventilators is 88%. It is less a life saving device and more an expensive pyre. India has also been smart about running really intelligent statistical tests instead of mass testing. They randomly tested people coming in reporting pneumonia symptoms, they tested randomly sampled population and closely tracked the death rate, instead of spending 100s of millions on testing everyone. (esp. when everyone is 1 billion people) Additionally if high rates of testing only serve to better provide recommendations on distancing, mask wear and lockdowns, then India has jumped to stringent action already, making high rates of testing rather meaningless. (2 week delayed death number spikes are far more reliable for longer term decision making such as when to restart the economy)

(also, even more controversial, it doesn't help that the Indian intellectual and political left (esp. the Luthiens Delhi crowd), despises the current government, and would rather evangelize and believe in its incompetence, ever get caught giving it credit where it is due. I say this as someone who would be considered a proper social democrat in the US and is not a fan of the current US or Indian Govt.)

Is it possible that there are other reasons for why India has low Covid-19 death rates ? -> Of course it is possible. But, the pigheaded quest of the western media to find an alternative "godsent" reason to keep believing that India has an incompetent public health infrastructure is honestly quite appalling.

<comment><USER55> Hahaha people on Scandinavian social media think _South Korea_ and _Hong Kong_ are faking their case numbers and refuse to believe the virus is actually easily possible to contain.

Somehow lots of them believe their governments are acting competently and that herd immunity is "the only way to stop the epidemic".

This virus is probably the first visible sign that Western countries have fallen from their grace, and that the Asian century has begun.

<comment><USER34> I wouldn't go so far.

I see it more as "freedom even at the expense of lives". The west for the first time in a long time, is being asked what the value of a life is.

Is freedom to roam during a pandemic, worth the aggregated loss of life it causes ?

The question has been lingering around with ecological damage done by our lifestyles and the anti-intellectualism/ anti-vax movement, which is allowed free reign in many places. But, Covid has brought it into focus.

I have heard enough about India super-power 2040, to know that anyone who claims to know what the future holds is either lying, under informed, has an agenda or all 3.

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER56> As I write the word "immune" appears only twice in 161 comments.

In "Gandhi's Truth" by Erik Erikson, he wrote fifty years ago of adapting one's immune system to India as a rite of passage. Even today, one arrives with caution and does not live like an Indian. My friends born in India but raised elsewhere share this necessary caution with me.

This is more complex than the Indian immune system going "That's the best you got?" My friends have been following web seminars by medical specialists. The popular "binary" impression of developed immunity is hopelessly naive. The virus hacks an existing immune system; it depends on a functioning immune system to propagate. It does not strain credibility to suppose that the typical Indian immune system is different, and this affects virus propagation.

Here's a good specialist introduction to the virus, describing the complexity of the relationship with immune responses: [https://youtu.be/wh-u2GDrmDA](https://youtu.be/wh-u2GDrmDA)

</comment><comment><USER57> Is there any scientific/medical feedback on India's official approach to give prophylaxis hydroxychloroquine to medical personnel and contacts of infected people? Could it be that this policy had some positive impact?

[https://www.mohfw.gov.in/pdf/AdvisoryontheuseofHydroxychloro...](https://www.mohfw.gov.in/pdf/AdvisoryontheuseofHydroxychloroquinasprophylaxisforSARSCoV2infection.pdf)

[https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3...](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099\(20\)30313-3/fulltext)

<comment><USER58> ICMR doctor R Ganga Ketkar had made the statement on Apr 11 ([https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PP_ta25JcbU](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PP_ta25JcbU)) that this is under study and at this point is not a recommended treatment.

Subsequently a recent study in the US has said that it has no positive effect. Seems to be a dead end at the moment.

</comment></comment><comment><USER59> on the other hand, at least one newspaper in India has an article [1] titled: "India's coronavirus infection rates are among the highest in Asia"

we are under lockdown for more than a month now, and in my state, there's even stricter lockdown for past few days (not even groceries/vegetable shops are open, supplies provided to some extent via government operated mobile vending, door deliveries, etc)

[1] [https://www.thehindu.com/data/indias-coronavirus- infection-r...](https://www.thehindu.com/data/indias-coronavirus-infection- rates-are-among-the-highest-in-asia/article31440360.ece)

<comment><USER60> Whoever wrote that article apparently has no idea what "rate" means, as they were comparing total case and death counts:

> India is among the four Asian countries with at least 25,000 confirmed > COVID-19 cases and 800 related deaths as of April 26. China, Turkey and Iran > are the other three.

India and China each has one fifth of world's population ffs. The infection rate in each is tiny.

<comment><USER59> yeah, seems like a mixed bag with the wrong conclusion

they show the graphs, from which one can infer whether the infection is increasing/decreasing

but the top-5 conclusion seems to be based on total cases, which is probably not the case if rate is considered

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER61> I would like to point out that even with the existing amount of tests, that are much lower in number than those in the USA and Europe, the COVID19 test positivity rate in India is among the lowest in the world (4-5%).

</comment><comment><USER62> One more possible factor for the low number of cases that has not been discussed in this thread is the high genetic diversity. Search for 'HLA covid india'.

[https://www.ncbs.res.in/content/comparative-analyses-low- med...](https://www.ncbs.res.in/content/comparative-analyses-low-medium-and- high-resolution-hla-typing-technologies-human)

</comment><comment><USER63> There's plenty of evidence that this coronavirus is less stable in hotter, humid climates. Given India has some dense cities, diverse climates and lots of indoor buildings it obviously has spread a bit, but warm developing countries like India and Vietnam were among the first hit and have relatively little spread for their population density.

</comment><comment><USER64> This virus seems sneaky. It's seasonal and it probably does not like heat. For countries closer to the equator, it has not done much damage. It's hard to hide deaths. I think the numbers are close to reality. But the virus may surge in these countries after summer when the heat recedes.

<comment><USER65> Sounds more and more like heat is a major factor, whose effect is amplified when coupled with the massive lockdown that India implemented. I wonder whether or not the heat will continue to keep it at bay after the lockdown is lifted.

</comment></comment><comment><USER66> There are mistakes in the article. To begin with the first case was reported 3 months ago and to be precise on Jan 30th. While its difficult to findout the strain of the virus, the first patient was a medical student returned Wuahn.

</comment><comment><USER67> So, the conclusion of the article is "we know that we don't know"? One has to wonder, what is the point of publishing something useless like this, unless the author is trying to imply something completely different in the subtext.

</comment><comment><USER68> Most countries in the tropics and southern henisphere are seeing low death rates regardless of how they handle the outbreak. Most likely heat stops covid-19, just like the cold.

You can verify this by graphing death rates against latitude.

</comment><comment><USER69> Maybe the warmer more humid weather in India combined with the measures they took against the virus delayed the spread enough that the number of deaths are lower.

</comment><comment><USER70> I hope the reason is that Indians are intrinsically resistant to SARS-CoV-2, that would be a big relief.

<comment><USER71> Based on how many people of Indian, Pakistani and Bangladeshi descent are dying in the UK there is no indication that people form the Indian subcontinent have some genetic resiliency or immunity to the virus.

<comment><USER72> Indian, living in India presently, who lived in the US for almost a decade. I can relate a strange experience: I was never severely bedridden by flu or viral fever in India. I caught the flu during my stay in the US one February. I was so weak I could not even sit up in a chair for more than 15 minutes, I would doze off. I was in my bed for practically 5 days, was weak for a couple of weeks afterwards.

I am back in India for a decade, never had such an experience again.

As you say, genetics is definitely not the reason for immunity or lower death rates. But I wonder whether human immunity is much lower coming out of the winter. India does not have severe subzero celsius winter except in the hills.

<comment><USER71> Because you are likely more resilient to local strains. Getting a flu / cold or the "shits" when traveling is very common, many westerners that travel to india and suffer some gastric discomfort blame the food for no real reason (tho ghee can have a cleansing effect if you over eat it).

India has quite high influenza mortality rates [https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6815659/](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6815659/)

</comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER73> Not enough people make it into their 80s to have a large vulnerable population. Mystery solved.

</comment><comment><USER74> FUN FACT - India has the world's highest percentage of people with type B blood. (血液型)

</comment><comment><USER75> Maybe it's because Americans are fat. Especially poor Americans who subsist on fast food and other junk. My guess would be that Indians in poverty are more likely starving than diabetic. Starving has its own health risks obviously, but being fat enough to impede your breathing isn't one of them.

<comment><USER65> Obesity affects fatality rates, not infection rates, due to greater chance of respiratory obstruction in advanced cases of the disease.

It appears that infection rates in India are low at the moment. It's not entirely clear why, but it could be a combination of hot weather, their nationally imposed lockdown, and lack of testing.

</comment></comment><comment><USER76> There's no mystery. India acted early and went into nation wide lockdown.

</comment><comment><USER77> Is there a district-wise covid map that someone could keep a track of this?

</comment><comment><USER49> They dont even mention other options such as previous vaccinations, cross effects from other drugs, antibodies from other coronaviruses , humidity/sunlight etc. "They must be hiding something" means they either believe it's a conspiracy, or is a borderline racist attitude

</comment><comment><USER78> Or... the Covid is not as fatal as it is widely assumed.

</comment><comment><USER18> Ground Report : I live in one of the major cities. Lockdown is reasonably well ensured. Our State Chief Minister was particularly vigilant and people are very alert.

There is not much misinformation in the media.

Basically, everyone has taken it seriously and is vigilant.

I also hear that those who took TB vaccine are more immune, and that is practically most of the younger and middle aged people in the country.

</comment><comment><USER79> Not a mystery at all. Multiple factors work in India's favor in likely order of impact:

\- Young Population

\- Non-obese population

\- Heat and Humidity across a lot of the country

\- Widespread deployment of anti-malarials to combat malaria

\- Wide spread deployment of BCG vaccine

\- Tumeric heavy diet compared to the rest of the world

The top 3 are non-controversial. Young, skinny people are less susceptible, and the spread of the virus slows with sunlight, heat, and humidity.

Anti-malarials like Chloroquine, etc. are more controversial, but there is significant anecdotal evidence, as well as in vitro studies indicating they may be helpful. Furthermore, countries that widely deploy anti-malarials for malaria have so far shown lower death rates than expected (Brazil in particular should be on fire with COVID-19).

BCG vaccine for TB appears to help with COVID-19, through a heightened general immune response. Big studies going on right now to test this theory. There are six different formulations of the vaccine and it is unclear if the different formulations effect its potential efficacy against COVID-19. This is even more "on the edge" of science than the anti-malarials, but the BCG vaccine has shown long lasting resistance to all kinds of respiratory ailments in populations where it is deployed.

Tumeric is flat out a stretch. Curcumin has come up over and over again in studies of compounds that may help. But, there is absolutely no testing or real evidence at this time. It is merely a supposition based on molecular models and meta-studies of other studies on the compound. I included it for discussion, since Tumeric consumption is likely higher in India than many other countries. I also wonder if it plays any role in traditional medicine in the country.

People look for a silver bullet, but there are many factors at play here.

<comment><USER80> Curcumin downmodulates a few of the same inflammatory cytokines that spike in deadly covid-19 cases. It's also been shown as an effective adjunct therapy for people with asthma. It's really not a huge stretch to think that it could hinder the progression of covid-19, even if the only mechanism is that people feel less of an urge to cough.

</comment></comment><comment><USER81> Could this be related to mandatory BCG vaccination programme? If you compare Covid19 death rates between Portugal and Spain, or Ireland and UK, it is 3 times lower in favor of countries with BCG vaccinations.

</comment><comment><USER82> _A better question from everyone outside the US: what the flying f is with the huuuuuge (accounting for estimated no. of infected and other factors) number of deaths in the USA??!!?!_

I mean, the US is (a) a developed country with modern health-care, (b) there is no common 'old parents living in same home with some of the adult children' situation you have in Italy + Eastern Europe, (c) there are no norms of common physical contact like 'kissing on meeting' (see France, Italy, northern Romania etc.), (d) the population is generally very dispersed (compare US density with areas of Western Europe or China) and (e) there is prevalent use of personal cars instead of public transport (as opposed to Western Europe and China, again), which should further diminish transmission.

US stats look worrying for _everyone on Earth_ , it almost looks like _a wild difference in viral strains_ or some other important but unknown factor.

<comment><USER83> > A better question from everyone outside the US: what the flying f is with > the huuuuuge (accounting for estimated no. of infected and other factors) > number of deaths in the USA??!!?

That's only true if you don't know what "per capita" means.

So far the US has 172 death per 1M population. That's better than other countries with supposedly better healthcare including:

\- Belgium

\- France

\- Spain

\- Italy

\- UK

\- Netherlands

\- Sweden

\- Ireland

\- Switzerland

And many more.

> US stats look worrying for everyone on Earth

I'm more worried about people's inability to understand the difference between stats and absolute numbers specially on this site where we're supposed to know better.

<comment><USER84> NYC is currently at 1462 deaths per million.

<comment><USER83> The whole country of Spain is at 510 deaths per million. How high do you think their biggest hot spot is?

<comment><USER38> I think the point is that treating the USA as some sort of unified region for statistical purposes is in itself problematic.

<comment><USER84> The thing that worries me about NYC statistics is that they're awful, and we now have serum tests that indicate that -- at best -- we're about 1/3 of the way through. (Current serum tests indicate 20-25% of NYC has caught it, current R0 estimates indicate that 70-85% would need to catch it for it to burn itself out without any additional measures.)

This puts reasonable estimates of "how bad can it get?" at north of 5000 deaths per million, if we don't properly contain it. This, really, is the new information we're getting out of US numbers.

</comment></comment></comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER85> About relative low death counts in some Asian countries by comparison with Europe or America, we must take in mind that Asian people could had been exposed in the past to a virus of Asian origin (or to a relatively similar virus strain), so they could have developed some immunity previously.

I would want to include in the discussion (and this is just my opinion and wild speculation by my part, not more, not less) the spring wildfires around Chernobyl area also in 2020. I wonder if ashes in the atmosphere are being also a hidden source of respiratory problems for Europe than nobody is taking in mind. Could explain the strange pattern of people that has recovered from the disease but somehow falls ill again and starts coughing again and again in waves, malaria style.

I remember similar massive coughs in all Europe in 2015 (if I'm not wrong) exactly at the same time that Russian and Ukrainian armies were burning forests in the North of Ukranie. I can be wrong, but there is not much to lose by researching that except time, and we have a lot currently. If we seen that spikes in hospital admissions match the burning periods and the wind direction plus a reasonable delay to reach the areas we could do further research.

<comment><USER78> I can agree with you about the burning forests.

Looking at the Spanish flu - it looks that if one were to account for famine, malnutrition, unsanitary conditions and other facts, it seems nothing out of the ordinary.</comment></comment>


Why LegalZoom Fails Startups - <AUTHOR> http://startuplawyer.com/incorporation/why-legalzoom-fails-startups <comment><USER2> Wait…the guy who founded LegalZoom represented OJ Simpson? OK. Why is that relevant? Seems like the author didn't have any good arguments, so tossed in the OJ connection.

<comment><USER3> As I recall, OJ was acquitted, so Robert Shapiro did something right.

</comment></comment><comment><USER4> I don't really feel like he said much. He certainly didn't sell me on not using LegalZoom.</comment>


Reliant on batteries, and unprepared for the bombs they could be used to create - <AUTHOR> https://slate.com/technology/2018/06/were-increasingly-reliant-on-high-tech-batteries-and-completely-unprepared-for-high-tech-battery-bombs.html <comment><USER2> I stopped reading when he attempted to conflate 1,580 psi at the battery (source) level, with blast pressure of 20 psi on a (target) concrete structure damaging it.</comment>


Richard Stallman resigned from MIT after comments he made about Jeffrey Epstein - <AUTHOR> https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/17/us/mit-scientist-resigned-epstein-comments/index.html <comment><USER2> 1200 comments in [https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20990583](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20990583)

<comment><AUTHOR> Thanks, this article points to that and gives context and links to articles on all sides. Likely the flamewars on that HN post have pushed it off the front- page. For example here's an article from a comment there that got lost in the noise: [https://medium.com/@selamie/remove-richard-stallman- appendix...](https://medium.com/@selamie/remove-richard-stallman-appendix- a-a7e41e784f88)</comment></comment>