Git's Little Bundle of Joy - <AUTHOR> http://progit.org/2010/03/10/bundles.html#

<comment><USER2> Git keeps surprizing me with it's power. I would like to know if this exists as well in some form in Hg/Bzr...

<comment><USER3> I _believe_ this idea was taken from Hg, actually. Though it's not new - 'bundle' has been in Git for almost 3 years now, since 1.5.1

<comment><USER4> Um, this idea was taken from BitKeeper which has had this feature for 10 years.

I know it's not cool to give BK any credit but almost 100% of what is in git, hg, bzr came from BK and you can go dig through the history and prove that for yourself.

<comment><USER5> And that is why annoying one of the better programmers in the world today by withdrawing his free license is a bad idea. Git only exists because Linus didn't want to migrate to the commercial version of BK.

<comment><USER4> Maybe you ought to talk to Linus about that and get the real answer. What you just said is nonsense and Linus, if you can get his attention, will be happy to set you straight.

In case you can't get his attention, the real story is that Linus understood that letting Tridge create a clone of BK was just asking for trouble. Imagine if there was a commercial clone of git, done by people without access to the git source code. And it was used to read and write git repos. Now imagine that the commercial guys didn't really understand git and they made a mistake and that mistake corrupted part of the repo. And imagine that that corruption got picked up and propogated by the real git.

Kind of a mess, right? Especially when you consider that git is a distributed system. Actually happened to the Linux kernel when it was in BK because someone went and editted the metadata directly to "fix" a problem. How do you fix a problem that is in thousands of repos? We fixed it by putting knowledge of the Linux kernel and that problem into BK and doing a new release.

Linus was smart enough to realize that that sort of problem was extremely likely if people started using a Tridge created BK clone. And he realized that there was zero chance that when problems occurred that people would blame them on Tridge, BK would catch all the flack. So he got off BK because he was actually grateful for the help we provided and wasn't interested in causing us harm.

This was after him spending months arguing with Tridge that Tridge was doing the wrong thing.

But don't take my word for it, go ask him.

<comment><USER5> I appreciate the correction. My statement was based on my memory of the news reports at the time. Clearly my memory failed in this case. :-p

<comment><USER4> No problem, the news at the time was pretty slanted and I was too burned out to go correct it. Better late than never I suppose.

Have fun with Git, other than cruddy rename support, it's a nice system. Frigging fast, I gotta hand that one to Linus, it's faster than BK on some stuff.

</comment></comment></comment></comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER6> Good to know! I can imagine using 'git bundle'.</comment>


Show HN: Vusic – A Simple Web Player for Apple Music Built with Vue and Vuex - <AUTHOR> https://github.com/falcon78/Vusic <comment><USER2> It's always nice to see a full application as a reference (vs small snippets in docs/blogs), when you have those questions "I wonder how they solved this?".

Thanks for putting this out there!!

<comment><AUTHOR> Thank you for the kind words !

</comment></comment><comment><USER3> Nice work here! Love me some Vue!

A friend of mine worked on a similar web player for Apple Music that got a lot of attention, Musish [0]. If I remember right, they were working on it before Apple released their web player. It's totally open source as well, so you might be able to take some inspiration from their work too!

[0]: [https://github.com/Musish/Musish](https://github.com/Musish/Musish)

<comment><AUTHOR> Thank you! Musish is what actually inspired me to create this project , its really awesome and i learned a great deal from it.

</comment></comment><comment><USER4> I quite like Apple's decision to expose a streaming API. I'm still a bit unsure about the terms and monetising any app you write over it, but it looks like a good way to get native Linux support and also add on things like Spotify style discovery.

The only thing stopping me switching is Spotify's ability to show me music I might like. Apple mostly gives you the top hits.

<comment><USER5> Doesn't it only work in a browser? And so does that count as "native Linux support"?

<comment><USER4> They expose an API, you can write against it in Swift with the right libraries. No reason why you can't write against the same API in Linux using your language of choice.

Apple only provides bindings for Swift/JS/Obj-C though, so it'd be a bit of work.

<comment><USER5> Last time I checked (a few months ago) there was no access to the audio outside of the browser i.e. DRM protected. Accessing the rest of the API is presumably simple but not very interesting.

</comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER6> Thanks for sharing your learning!

This shows a good way to learn Vue, Sass, and how to integrate with YouTube and the Genius API for lyrics.

<comment><AUTHOR> Thank you ! I had a lot of fun making it and im glad that you fell that way :)

</comment></comment><comment><USER7> Very nice, thanks for sharing! One suggestion: music player applications benefit greatly from virtual scrolling, since lists of songs or albums can potentially be very, very long. Nonetheless, fantastic job!

</comment><comment><USER8> This looks good and functions very nicely. However, the playhead in the progress bar moves in discreet steps. It'd be better if its movement is smoother. the playhead inside [https://beta.music.apple.com](https://beta.music.apple.com) unfortunately behaves the same way.

<comment><AUTHOR> Now that you point it out it does look kind of weird... Maybe be i should create a new component for the play progress which increments in very tiny scale. Thank you for the feedback!

<comment><USER7> The best way I've found is to update the DOM in an requestAnimationFrame loop, polling the Audio Element's currentTime, since its events don't fire reliably.

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER9> philips4350, can you say roughly how long it took you to build? Thanks!

<comment><AUTHOR> It took me roughly 3 month to build if you count in the time it took to learn Vue but the project itself was made in about two months

</comment></comment><comment><USER10> Looking good. A few questions about the toolchain:

What do you use PostCSS for?

How are the the scss files actually compiled?

<comment><AUTHOR> Thank you !

The scss files are compiled by webpack to normal css at build time using sass loader, I used vue-cli to automate the webpack configuration [https://cli.vuejs.org/](https://cli.vuejs.org/) process

Oh and the poss css file is just a leftover config file for a package that i decided not to use ( Ant Design )

</comment></comment><comment><USER11> What are your favorite vue related readings ?

<comment><AUTHOR> [https://madewithvuejs.com/blog/vue-3-roundup](https://madewithvuejs.com/blog/vue-3-roundup)

The articles mentioned here were very interesting, and im actually looking forward to Vue 3

<comment><USER11> thank you

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER12> Beautiful!

<comment><AUTHOR> Thank you!

</comment></comment><comment><USER13> A random student's portfolio piece offering nothing over [https://beta.music.apple.com](https://beta.music.apple.com) beside the use of a specific front end web ecosystem.

Latest commit X 8 months ago, 8 months from now.

<comment><USER14> This comment breaks both the HN guidelines and the more specific guidelines for Show HN. Could you please read them and stick to the rules when posting? We're trying not to be the nasty sort of internet place here.

[https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html](https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html)

[https://news.ycombinator.com/showhn.html](https://news.ycombinator.com/showhn.html)</comment></comment>


GitHub open sources action parser - <AUTHOR> https://githubengineering.com/an-open-source-parser-for-github-actions/ <comment><AUTHOR> Of late there has been a lot of discussion about vendor lock in (notably wrt Lambda on AWS). I'm interested in how folks feel about this.</comment>


Ask HN: What's actually "defendable" about web startups these days? - <AUTHOR>

For example, what's keeps Gowalla from copying Foursquare's features, and vice versa? Unless a startup is working on something truly revolutionary and highly technical, how would a startup answer the question: what's keeping competitor X from copying you?
The lack of an IP warchest for today's startups seems to me like a glaring weakness. And you can't answer with "our team", "the way we execute", etc. I mean something that's truly defendable. (I guess Facebook DID patent the news feed...)
Just something I've been thinking about lately, but have yet to find a satisfying answer for and thought I'd ask the HN crowd. Thanks! <comment><USER2> This question does not exactly keep me up at night, but if it did, my answer might sound like "Our most important product isn't the one we're selling, it is the processes we use to make and market the product(s) we're selling and will sell in the future, and those processes are non-trivial and so ridiculously superior to what the competition will be using that they will _never_ catch up."

IMVU or Zygna are good examples of this. Neither has a patent wall around them, either is about as well defended as any business based on computers can be. The reason is that, while you can make your own Big-Chested-Anime-Chicks- Farming-Together-Chat-Client in not a whole lot of time, you won't have their creation process... and they're learning so fast about their markets that they will _bury you_. The advantages they get from the whole lean startup thing -- fast learning and fast production -- are compounding, because it buys them more traditional advantages like network effects, kickstarts their virality, gives them money to buy insane amounts of FB advertising, etc etc.

This is totally not limited to these market segments. (If either of them were in search-focused verticals I'd tell you about how this helps build the self- reinforcing authority cycle for SEO, too.)

<comment><USER3> Also, you could clone their site, but you couldn't clone the underlying understanding required to better it.

</comment></comment><comment><USER4> What keeps Coke defensible from Pepsi?

Sure, "execution" is a loaded word, but if you break it down, a successful startup is a magical combination of marketing, product, design, distribution, customer service, analytics, market knowledge, positioning, network effects etc. All of which, when executed well, strengthens and reinforces a brand that the end-consumer loves to rally around.

Your IP should be a means to this end, not the other way around.

<comment><USER3> Coke vs Pepsi? Patents and copyrights on the secret formula that makes it taste non-crap.

But the rest of your points stand.

<comment><USER5> Actually, Coke's formula isn't patented. Many say it's the best kept trade secret in the world. They keep competitors from copying them by keeping their recipe a secret.

<comment><USER6> Is it really that difficult to reverse engineer Coke's "formula"? I find it hard to believe that, with the tools we have today, no company could create an exact duplicate. Maybe the the real issue is that they could, but then couldn't reproduce the brand.

</comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER7> The only answer is the culture behind a decision. If you're doing things right you are following a "plan" and solving a problem, a feature is your catch about a possible solution. If your competitors copy it, you did your work right, it means that you have a good knowledge of your userbase and generally of the domain. The problem will never be a competitor copying you, it's if a competitor implements your next feature before of you and the solution you're coming up with is the same. At that point, you're not managing the rules of the game anymore.

</comment><comment><USER8> How about their customers/users or comprehensiveness of data? The biggest thing that stops me moving from Facebook to competitor X is that all my friends are on Facebook and not competitor X. Similarly, would you prefer to use Foursquare with stuff and people already in your city, or competitor Y in which your city is barren?

Of course this leaves many startups out, since this doesn't apply to them.

</comment><comment><USER9> Why can't someone answer with "our team" or "they way we execute"? If your competitor is always a step behind you copying features you wrote last month, doesn't that guarantee that you'll always be ahead of them?

</comment><comment><USER10> not much. some stuff is defensible, but generally, success seems to comes from being innovative and having a good team that executes well.</comment>


BMW's new logo is atrocious - <AUTHOR> https://www.underconsideration.com/brandnew/archives/new_logo_for_bmw.php <comment><USER2> I know it's probably a visual illusion, but does the center circle in the new logo look slightly off? Like it's a few pixels too high?

</comment><comment><USER3> I wonder how much they paid the consultants that came up with this thing that looks like my kid did it after school.</comment>


Transplants Being Planned to Heal Troops' Hidden Wounds - <AUTHOR> http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/07/health/penis-transplants-being-planned-to-heal-troops-hidden-wounds.html <comment><USER2> > _Doctors who treat young men wounded in combat say that no matter how bad > their other injuries are, the first thing the men ask about when they wake > up from surgery is whether their genitals are intact._

> _"Our young male patients would rather lose both legs and an arm than have a > urogenital injury," said Scott E. Skiles, the polytrauma social work > supervisor at the Veterans Affairs Palo Alto Health Care System._

This is something I frequently wonder about when reading stories of those maimed in combat, in a way that would almost seemingly affect their pelvic area (IED that destroys a leg, for example). I wonder if during the interview with the reporter, who is the side that chooses to omit such a prominent, if stigmatized detail that might profoundly impact the survivor's day-to-day life even more than the visible injuries?</comment>


Is it an outrageous price to ask? Please send your feedback. - <AUTHOR>

I got round to thinking about offsetting my hosting/infrastructure costs for Criticue.com -- a feedback exchange online app I launched with your help exactly one month ago.
I intend to keep the core offering free but do need a revenue source. Don't we all. :)
Here's my first stab at the beast: http://i.imgur.com/yfjXb.png
My questions:
Is the offer clear and understandable?
Is this the amount you'd pay for the service?
This is a pretty obvious route to take and has been suggested by many users but I do have backup plans in case it doesn't work at all. :)
Thank you so much everyone for your excellent feedback so far!
EDIT: Link to the service (not everyone knows what it does haha): www.criticue.com <comment><USER2> 1) The first thing I noticed is the 0/$9/$19 scheme. I would make it 0/$10/$25, it's more to the point and I think the rounded numbers would be better received.

2) I think you could make a lot more money. Large web development agencies could use this site to get quick feedback on new site designs. Not sure about your entire strategy but I'm thinking that you could "rank" reviewers. A reviewer who reaches a certain threshold is considered an "expert" or something. Then, offer those better reviewers to these development/design agencies for $99/month (or more).

3) Similar to point 2, maybe you could have a verification process for professional designers/website builders (prove they are good at what they do). They would (most likely) provide the most technical and potentially useful feedback. I think agencies would like to have these people give critical feedback which could be worth a lot... Like $300 / month. You could also provide incentive to professional reviewers with compensation ($1 / accepted review or something).

4) I would limit the # of reviews per site based on the plan. Free = 5 reviews Pro = 20 reviews Gold = 100 reviews Unlimited = Unlimited reviews Not sure how many reviews are normally submitted per site, but you get the idea.

These are just some quick ideas. Like the site/idea, g'job.

 _source: Work for a web development agency._

<comment><USER3> These are all good points.

1) Anecdotally, round numbers feel more "honest" to me, it's probably been studied but I can't find any references.

2/3) Definitely reviews themselves are the most valuable and if you can find a way to increase their supply, you've got something really worth selling.

4) Potentially a good idea but could turn some people away. Maybe a throttle rather than a hard limit.

What about a ladder like this to get reviews in the bank? 1 gets you your first 1 2 & 3 get you your second 4 & 5 & 6 get your third etc

</comment></comment><comment><USER4> Keep it simple. Charge for reviews, let people choose what makes sense for them.

One time transactional purchases:

      $5 for 3 reviews
      $10 for 8 reviews
      $20 for 18 reviews

Subscription plans:

      $5/mo for 5 reviews/mo
      $10/mo for 15 reviews/mo
      $20/mo for 30 reviews/mo

Work to earn:

      1 review for 3 reviews written
      1 bonus review for every 5 written

I think a ratio of 1:3 is perfectly fair, it may not be an even exchange, but it's fair. You have to have a profit margin built into the service to ensure its longevity. Reasonable people understand that.

Since you're charging good money for the reviews they have to be very good quality. You'll need a moderation system and a way to very easily let people flag a review as bad and get a review credit refund.

<comment><USER3> I think this is the better direction to go. People will use your service to improve their sites, and they'll pay (and keep paying) to get the most improvement. I don't think additional screenshots/IFRAMEing will improve the review quality much. Getting more reviews (and higher-quality reviews, once reviewers/reviews can get feeback) is the most valuable thing.

Actually second thought, the one place I can see screenshots being useful is to let people crop out a specific piece of UX for comment. Have you thought about letting review requestors add a comment to guide the review toward a specific question they're trying to ask? That could also be pay-for.

Obviously the balance you have to strike to keep the site healthy is to maintain the balance of reviews owed to / owed by users. Staunch is on the right track with rebalancing the "free" tier in order to primine the "owed by" pump. You can further maintain the balance by paying reviewers (perhaps "top"/"verified" reviewers, as suggested by donutdan4114) a fraction of the income you get from subscribers to do reviews.

I can see that you're drawn toward keeping the 1 for 1 simplicity, but I think it'll be hard to find other features worth paying for.

PS, as an enthusiastic user of Criticue, thanks!

</comment></comment><comment><USER5> I'm not sure why I'd pay for the gold plan when you can just click through to the site anyway. Ditto the Pro plan, actually. Perhaps you could give people more review credits the more they pay?

<comment><AUTHOR> Thank you for the feedback. I'm too not 100% sure about the frames but got pretty many requests about it. Will be thinking about it.

I'd love to sell credits like this but this is a drawback of a 1-to-1 exchange ratio; it's fair but there's no margin you can capitalize on. But I'll think about what you said.

Thanks again.

</comment></comment><comment><USER6> VERY cool concept!

</comment><comment><USER7> 1\. The offer is clear, but as they say you need power before you can reason with others so, say you are SEO expert, your critical view of any related field would be most welcome, other might get ignored. So I'm thinking you would want to hire freelance experts for different fields, once you do that, or get them on-board you would be ready to give feedback of high quality. Best is to set a revenue share, 20-80%, in case sales happens, if not nothing. This will bring you lot of customers.

2\. yes, its a steep price to ask, compare it to the fact that online lockers cost way less than that, yet hardly anyone gets premium occasionally!

0.99 and 1.99 per month sound more fair, given low quality feedback sites are absolutely free.

<comment><AUTHOR> Thanks for the feedback!</comment></comment>


Ask HN: What's your favorite productivity app? - <AUTHOR>

Since I can't add a poll I'm listing a few I've tried. Feel free to add yours.
I'm looking for the best to-do / gtd / project management app. As simple as Basecamp, but with repeating tasks and metrics if possible.
It seems none of these are meeting the requirements: http://socialcompare.com/en/comparison/tasks-management-todo-lists-web-apps
http://web.appstorm.net/roundups/task-management/top-10-apps-web-based-task-managers/
Thanks! <comment><USER2> Since others can't view the amount of upvotes on your entries, this is basically a worthless semi-poll. But a great karma farming attempt at least!

</comment><comment><AUTHOR> TeuxDeux (<http://teuxdeux.com/>)

</comment><comment><AUTHOR> Basecamp (<http://basecamp.com/>)

</comment><comment><AUTHOR> Trello (<https://trello.com/>)

</comment><comment><AUTHOR> Producteev (<http://www.producteev.com/home.php>)

</comment><comment><AUTHOR> Flow (<http://www.getflow.com/>)

</comment><comment><USER3> Workflowy (<http://workflowy.com>)

</comment><comment><AUTHOR> Todoist (<http://todoist.com/>)

</comment><comment><USER4> Taskk.it (<http://taskk.it>)

</comment><comment><USER5> 3x5 index cards and a pen

</comment><comment><AUTHOR> Doit (<http://doit.im/>)

</comment><comment><AUTHOR> flow.io (<http://flow.io/>)

</comment><comment><AUTHOR> RTM (<http://www.rememberthemilk.com>)</comment>


Cardiio: touch-free pulse sensing, turn your phone into a biosensor. - <AUTHOR> http://cardiio.com/

<comment><USER2> That would be really useful for live-streaming Starcraft. Now big tournaments often have this feature so that viewers can see not only the player's APM, but also their hearts' BPM.

It would be awesome for regular players to be able to put that in their streams!</comment>


Ask HN: No longer allowed to comment on your own submission? - <AUTHOR> My previous understanding was that, after submitting a URL, it was polite to post a comment saying basically what you thought was interesting / worth reading about the article.
It looks like HN has changed this so that you cannot comment on an article after you submit it.
Sorry if this was already announced, I did try to search for an announcement and didn't see one. If it wasn't announced, I'm just curious what the motivation was for this change. Does anyone know? <comment><USER2> You can comment on your own submissions, but it seems your submission ~5 minutes before this one got automatically killed, likely because the domain of the link you submitted is blacklisted. (You can ask the mods for more details at firstname.lastname@example.com

</comment><comment><AUTHOR> Although, ironically, I can comment on this AskHN... but not the URL I submitted recently.

Is the idea just that you should no longer be able to post a URL with an introductory comment?</comment>


Legal AI and the Industrialisation of Cognition (2017) - <AUTHOR> https://www.artificiallawyer.com/2018/08/03/summer-re-post-legal-ai-the-industrialisation-of-cognition/ <comment><USER2> At first I thought this was a fiction story in a hypothetical 2035. The dramatic description of legal technology is completely at odds with my experience. I'm a young, technologically savvy guy who happens to be a lawyer, and I've never even used, for example, "AI" discovery. Not for want of economic motivation—I've pored through documents manually in contingency cases where having an instant AI answer would have been a god send. But what the article makes it seem like legal tech can do, and what it can actually do, are two things with a vast chasm between.

For example, "AI" discovery requires tons of handholding and careful training/QA. The process is so complicated, it's really only practical for very large document sets. Ironically, these huge document sets only tend to arise in highly valuable commercial litigation, where clients have strong incentives to demand human second level review anyway, mitigating much of the cost advantage. In practice, the biggest advance in discovery in the last 10-15 years has actually been culling document sets based in search terms ("fake" NEAR "testing results").

The article also takes a jab at legal outsourcing and makes it seem like AI has had a bigger impact than outsourcing. Not so. The trend of clients demanding that low level work be outsourced to contract attorneys has had ten times the impact on law firm economics compared to any legal technology invented in the last decade.

At bottom, the article is based on a fundamental mistake about the industry:

> What kind of repeat buyer lets the seller push the price up every year for > doing the same thing in the same way, where the product stays the same and > there is no improvement in the outcome? One answer to that is: a buyer who > is faced by a monopoly.

Today's clients are savvy. They'll bring in half a dozen firms to pitch any substantial matter, getting dozens of hours of free legal analysis from each just as table stakes. Fees are capped, rates are discounted, and success-based fee arrangements are routine. The legal industry is stiffly competitive, even at the very top. (Thanks to conflicts rules, consolidation in law has been limited. So there are _dozens_ of firms that you would consider just the "top firms").

On the whole, lawyers keep getting more expensive for the same reason as programmers in Silicon Valley or nannies in Manhattan. The stakes are high compared to the costs, and there is a rush to quality even in light of economic concerns.

<comment><USER3> I think that AI/Machine learning has made a big impact on the Ediscovery part of the legal industry. The use of ML commonly known as Predictive Coding does appear to reduce the number of hours required to find relevant documents in a large corpus.

There is a lot of noise about the use of AI in other areas of law, but I suspect (in common with other industries) this is just part of the hype cycle. That is not to say that the use of AI is not on the rise, but the article likely overstates its use.

<comment><USER4> Re. Overstating use, far from it. This piece is from 2017, since then adoption of NLP/ML systems has rapidly grown among the leading law firms eg AmLaw 100 and UK 100. Even excluding ediscovery systems the use of AI Tech for review work has hugely increased - sufficient to keep a daily blog going just to keep up with all that is happening. Don't get complacent. Things among larger firms are starting to change.

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER5> If the law were automated how would the wealthy get preferential treatment? Entering the legal system rich vs entering the legal system poor are two entirely different things. Maybe you will have to pay for compute cycles or additional law modules or something like that. ...I tend to think control over the law needs to be arrested from human hands if we want a fair system. But people don't want a fair system. They want a system that benefits them. I wonder if AI in the legal system will just be an internal revolution.

</comment><comment><USER6> I think the author is confusing "AI" with "automation". While the legal industry (among others) has been slow to embrace automation, it has adopted word processing, text searches, and case management software. I don't think true AI is there yet in the legal, or any, industry.

</comment><comment><USER7> I find the article is badly written. Being a lawyer, a coder and interested in Legal Tech, I still find it hard to read or unterstand some sentences/sections. The author also falls short of mentioning any specific workflows that could be automated (which there are many) or any specific programs or companies that are really changing the legal landscape (which there are not many).

From my experience real AI Legal Tech is yet rarely used (at least in the European legal market). And I have yet to see a company I trust that will change that soon.

<comment><USER4> Thanks. There are over 30 legal AI companies working just in doc review. If you are interested in this area then check out previous pieces that cover a very wide range of use cases. There are well over 50+ companies using NLP/ML in the legal sector. If firms in your country are not then they are perhaps just a bit behind the curve. Come to London and it may change your mind.

</comment></comment><comment><USER8> I hope someone will treat the concept in greater depth than I can, but in my mind it seems imperative to universally tax robots and AI for _some measure_ of their income, to balance new distortions placed upon real people's innate capacities to produce. I'm especially interested in a convincing argument of why not to, as none have come past me yet.

<comment><USER9> Where do we _want_ to be? I'd argue we want full automation and some form of universal basic income (probably implemented through reverse taxation).

Taxing _automation_ over corporate profit makes that reality further away because it lessens incentives to automate. Increasing corporate/estate/etc taxes leaves the incentives to automate intact.

It's like arguing that we should tax renewable energy because we're going to run out of oil eventually anyway.

</comment></comment><comment><USER10> [content warning: plug for paywalled academic article I wrote]. If the (a bit overheated) claims in this article are true, it probably isn't good for social equality---at least, not in the absence of a sustained effort to build what in effect are social ventures (memo to YC...) around legal AI. Just building machine learning into existing legal workflows will probably reduce the legal costs for the rich and powerful without trickling down to the poor, who often face social in addition to financial barriers to legal services. Article I wrote making this argument at some length: [https://utpjournals.press/doi/abs/10.3138/utlj.2017-0047](https://utpjournals.press/doi/abs/10.3138/utlj.2017-0047)</comment>


How to Lose Weight, Mathematically - <AUTHOR> https://medium.com/cantors-paradise/how-to-lose-weight-mathematically-c66196a67b72 <comment><USER2> Paywalled</comment>


The crisis in customer service - <AUTHOR> http://www.newyorker.com/talk/financial/2010/09/06/100906ta_talk_surowiecki <comment><AUTHOR> Summary quote:

 _It's only once you've actually become a customer that companies put efficiency ahead of attention, with the result that a company's current customers are often the ones who experience its worst service. Economically, this makes little sense; it's more expensive to acquire a new customer than to hold on to an old one, and, these days, annoyed customers are quick to take their business elsewhere. But, because most companies are set up to focus on the first sale rather than on all the ones that might follow, they end up devoting all their energies to courting us, promising wonderful products and excellent service. Then, once they've got us, their attention wanders_

Not only can customers take their business elsewhere, they can also trash your reputation on the Internet - so that makes even less sense to me.</comment>


Questions with the CEO of Thumbtack - <AUTHOR> http://techcrunch.com/2014/08/20/12-questions-with-the-ceo-of-thumbtack-google-capitals-new-100-million-bet/

<comment><USER2> I used Thumbtack once, and felt that Thumbtack was a scam. It costs me $2-4 just to send a quote. I spent about $20 sending quotes over the course of a month and never saw any business. A lot of the requests I received just seemed fake (e.g. $3000 commercial shoot requests with no details). I'd actually prefer to pay more and give Thumbtack a percentage of the deal rather than pay a lower cost upfront. At least that way they have motivation to verify customer requests.

</comment><comment><USER3> I recently used Thumbtack and had a good experience. Unfortunately, there were no movers in my area so it was a short-lived deal. After a day or so they e-mailed asked me to take a survey and I obliged. I noted in the survey that I wasn't able to find anything in my area, but I liked the site UI. A few days later I got a human-written e-mail with a list of moving companies in my area.</comment>


Otto Zero is a robot for your travels - <AUTHOR> https://www.personalrobots.biz/otto-zero-is-a-robot-for-your-travels/ <comment><USER2> Cool when the code will be released?</comment>


Dynamic CSS Layout in Digital Comic Book - <AUTHOR> http://www.defendini.com/bib/

<comment><AUTHOR> NOTE: "The frames, word balloons, and text are each placed using CSS. The position of each element will change based on your resolution and screen width. That means no 2 screen sizes will have the exact same design."</comment>


Ask HN: Why are English and Spanish the only languages that trend on Twitter? - <AUTHOR>

I'm especially surprised I never see trending in Arabic, Chinese, Korean or Japanese. Does Twitter intentionally hide them or do they just not Tweet much? <comment><USER2> Probably is cultural. As a spaniard, my guess can be that people love gossip but the amazing thing is, every tv show and many ad agencies use twitter hashtags for their promotions. This didn't happened me at Berlin, for example, but maybe I'm wrong and it's just something cultural.

</comment><comment><USER3> It is not exactly like that, I saw both chinese and russian trends on twitter, rember #дождь for example. I guess people just tend to twit in English, even if it is not their primary language.

</comment><comment><USER4> Chinese is hardly present on Twitter because of censorship in China and competition within China from Chinese-language microblogging services (which are very influential within China).

</comment><comment><USER5> You just need to change your location... <http://cl.ly/image/3Z2U0v1H0r3v></comment>


Fake News: CNN Uses Screenshots from Fallout 4 to Depict Russian Hackers - <AUTHOR> https://sputniknews.com/us/201701031049237149-cnn-fallout-russian-hackers/ <comment><USER2> For those that aren't aware, Sputnik is owned by the Russian government:

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sputnik_(news_agency)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sputnik_\(news_agency\))

I've no axe to grind about this, but folks should know who owns the new sources they read.

</comment><comment><USER3> Fake news? Wouldn't this be akin to using stock images or archived video footage?....

<comment><USER4> Yeah this is obviously intended as stock footage. It's not like CNN said, "The FSB let our photographers hold the camera at a funny angle of their screen to get this awesome picture."

It's more like, "This is what we think you think hacking looks like."</comment></comment>


KB261186: Computer Randomly Plays Classical Music - <AUTHOR> https://support.microsoft.com/en-us/kb/261186 <comment><USER2> Funny coincidence - In Taipei, this tone means the garbage truck is here. [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fs5FekrLO7o](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fs5FekrLO7o)

Quite fitting though. Since the tune starts playing, left powered-on, the PC is going to turn into a hunk of junk soon. :) :)

<comment><USER3> There's a child's riddle related to that: [http://kids.yam.com/riddle/riddle.php?aid=505309&sid=0](http://kids.yam.com/riddle/riddle.php?aid=505309&sid=0)

The riddle goes: How many lights does a garbage truck have?

The answer: Nine of course! Dun-dun-dun-dun-dun-dun-dun-dun-dun.

It's funny only if you understand that the sound of the word for 'light' is the same as the sound you make when sounding out notes.

</comment></comment><comment><USER4> Oh, wow. I totally had this on one PC back in the day. I thought I was going insane, cause these were the times when I was spending way too much time in front of the screen.

</comment><comment><USER5> It should have played "Ride of the Valkyries", as in "I love the smell of a burning motherboard in the morning."

<comment> steve-howard "Clippy don't surf."

</comment></comment><comment><USER6> [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0LQhf17i33g](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0LQhf17i33g)

</comment><comment><USER7> I know fur elise, but I haven't heard 'it's small, small world'. I can't even find the file in Windows 2000. Does anyone know the music?

<comment><USER8> I believe the sound data is stored in the hardware not the OS. It just so happens to be an MS support article but it says it is a hardware failure (or imminent failure) notification.

</comment></comment><comment><USER9> I remember these times.....Fur Elise playing usually meant overheating issues....I had many a freaked out customer call me about being hacked. Though times haven't changed much, now whenever their internet/facebook/gmail etc.. doesn't work i get the same calls lol

</comment><comment><USER10> I actually got this one when I was working antivirus tech support.

</comment><comment><USER11> I prefer Ode to Joy [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8JwU5mcIwDw](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8JwU5mcIwDw)

</comment><comment><USER12> Huh. Might have been better to pick "One Bourbon, One Scotch, One Beer". That way you'd know what to do when you figured it out...

<comment><USER13> "So I got your budget proposal for the new motherboard line, everything looks great except for this line item here, 13.4 Million dollars in song royalties? Can you explain that?"

</comment></comment><comment><USER14> No relation to random Pavarotti syndrome?

</comment><comment><USER15> Brilliant!</comment>


Ask HN: Review my web app - <AUTHOR>

Hi everyone :-)
I've had my Twitter webapp on the backburner for ages, but after taking a friend's advice, I've finally bought a couple of themes and redesigned the service around them.
It would be awesome to get your feedback:
-What other features would you like to see?
-What do you think of the UI and design?
- If you use Twitter, would you use this webapp? If not, why not?
Thanks! Tom.
Link: http://tweetingmachine.com <comment><USER2> I don't use twitter, but I have a few things to say about the site in general.

It looks great. Looks like a very nice interface and design.

Provides a great presentation layer to the API functionality.

One thing though -- your *Tweeting Machine image in the upper left corner links to /public/index.php instead of /public/index and throws and error because of it.

<comment><AUTHOR> Thanks, I'm really pleased you like how it looks :)

Grr about the link, I thought I'd caught all them! Thanks for letting me know about it, now fixed :)

</comment></comment><comment><USER3> The image rotater on the front page goes way too fast. I was unable to read the text before it switched.

<comment><AUTHOR> Thanks, now that I've sat down and give it a cold hard look I think you're right. Time to play with some settings :)

</comment></comment><comment><AUTHOR> Clickable: <http://tweetingmachine.com></comment>


Ask HN: What is legally required to run a small service-based web application? - <AUTHOR>

I am gearing up for releasing a web application, targeted at a small audience where I'd like to sell monthly/yearly subscriptions. I am wondering what kind of a legal structure do I need to have in place in order to do this properly. Specifically, I want to (1) limit my liability and (2) make sure that customers trust it enough to sign up. And of course, I'd like for it to not cost an exorbitant amount to set up.
Also, I am deciding between PayPal and Google Checkout for the payment processor. I have little experience with integrating either, and while PayPal is more widespread, Google's documentation seems to be clearer. Any recommendations?
Not sure if this matters, but I am doing all of this as a side-project, and have a full-time job.
Thank you.
EDIT: I am in North Carolina, US. There is nothing about this service that's region specific. Ideally, I'd be able to have international sign-ups. So far, I have had as many hits from Europe + Asia as from the US. <comment><USER3> You don't need a legal structure to charge people money. Sole proprietorship is the most common form of business in the United States -- by quite a large margin. For example, BCC is structured as a sole proprietorship: when someone pays me for bingo cards, they're really paying _me_ for bingo cards.

You will probably find that no B2C customer actually cares about the structure of your business, legally. Your website design matters 10,000 times more in terms of trust gained. Your mileage may vary if you sell B2B, particular B2BigFreakingEnterprise.

With regards to liability: your main defense against liability is not your corporate structure or your terms of service. It is not pissing anyone off so bad that they decide to sue you.

You can, if you choose, get an LLC and create a Terms of Service. These are more to allow you to sleep better at night than insurance against catastrophe: no matter what you do right now, if you get sued, _life is going to suck_.

You want to sell subscriptions? Paypal Website Payments Pro + Spreedly. You can do it in two hours of coding and about two days or so in time it takes Paypal to review your business. I do not recommend doing yearly subscriptions until you have history: doing so increases your risk profile.

Your main regulatory issue for the typical SaaS app is simple: you owe income taxes on it, both to the US and to North Carolina. Luckily, you will have very good records of sales (because you'll be able to grab them from Paypal). If you want to deduct expenses, make sure to record them and keep proof of them (generally, receipts work fine -- for e-receipts, print to PDF and put it in your Dropbox so that you don't lose it).

<comment><USER4> You're 100% right from a technical standpoint, but I disagree with your opinion on the liability issues. I know it seems inconceivable when you start your business, but being sued is a possibility for just about anyone. It's entirely possible for your business to be sued because of the actions of an employee, for example. If that happens, and you're a sole proprietor, you are the one being sued.

This might sound like paranoia, but I'm living it, and you're right about another thing. It _sucks_. We have a corporation, one person in the organization did something none of the other members were aware of, and now we're being sued. The plaintiff even went so far as to try and sue all of the partners personally. Fortunately, the courts set the bar really high for breaching the corporate firewall. Being sued personally is no joke. If someone gets a judgement against you for some exorbitant sum of money, it's hard to resolve. It can follow you around for a long time.

Setting up a corporation is so simple, and so inexpensive that I don't understand why anyone wouldn't do it. I respect the fact that you've built a very successful business entirely on your own, and entirely organically, but operating without a corporation seems like flying trapeze without a net.

<comment><USER3> So, having looked into this a few times, my personal opinion is that a quickie instafigleaf will wilt like the fig leaf it is under legal scrutiny. Regardless of whether it is a LC or not, my software business has substantially less in assets than a taco truck, and any tortious behavior it carries out is definitionally certain to have been carried out by me personally. My expectation is that a lawsuit means I get held personally liable and that means bankruptcy. I could drop five hundred bucks tomorrow and be BCC LLC, but that does not change my estimate of risk of bankruptcy.

I would certainly get something formal if I had partners, like you did. I sincerely hope it works out for you.

<comment><USER4> That's a valid point regarding partners and mitigating risk. If you're a one- man company, it's a lot easier to manage the risks, so forming a corporation may be superfluous. I think it depends on your product as well. The chances of being sued while providing a simple product like bingo cards is minimal. If you're providing a service to businesses, you stand a much greater risk of being sued. It's all a balance.

BTW, I'm not suggesting that you should form a corp. Just to be clear on that. I do think this conversation is beneficial for the topic starter though.

I hear the "weak corporations are worthless" argument a lot. I will say that our simple little corporation is holding up really well, and we didn't spend a bunch of money forming it. We did not use one of those insta-corporation sites though. We paid a local attorney, with whom we sat down and met with, to establish our corporation and provide guidelines for maintaining it. It cost us less than $1000.

IMO, the bottom line with litigation is that it comes down to who has a bigger war chest. A weak corporate structure doesn't appear to be the shot that will sink our ship. Being unable to sustain the fight is the top threat.

When the personal lawsuit hit the door, the first thing I did was investigate bankruptcy. It is possible to discharge debt resulting from a judgement, but it depends on your circumstances. I definitely lack the depth of understanding required to explain it fully, but the gist of it is that receiving a discharge for a judgement isn't always as straight forward as something like credit card debt. Anyone engaged in a business with non-trivial risk of legal exposure should understand the implications before dismissing the benefits of having a corporation.

<comment><USER5> I'm not a lawyer, but I've been lead to believe that in the US at least, if you are the only member of your company (which I believe Patrick is), then no corporate structure is going to to protect you from liability. I think even with only 2 people it's a bit iffy (especially if the other person is your spouse).

If you are by yourself, Sole Proprietor is easier and simpler for taxes and the like. LLC is more complex and may offer NO extra liability protection.

<comment><USER4> As far as simplicity goes, consider this. As a sole proprietor, you must file a Schedule C with the IRS if you intend to take any deductions. Filing a Schedule C also dramatically increases your chances of an audit. Also, when you are audited, the audit covers all of your personal finances. If my corporation is audited, the audit does not automatically extend to my personal finances.

Having a corporation actually simplified my situation, even when I was a one- man consultant shop. I've always maintained separate bank accounts for my businesses, which gives me a clearer picture of my business performance by isolating my personal finances from the picture. I find the required filing to be minimal in contrast to the added clarity.

I can't make the argument that it requires less paperwork, but IMO, it does make the paperwork simpler.

<comment><USER6> You may also end up with schedule C income anyway if your legal entity provides you with a dividend or other payment outside your regular salary, and you are likely to want to do that anyway because non-salary distributions are not subject to social security taxes - saves you 15%.

</comment></comment></comment></comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER7> Where abouts in NC are you? I'm in Raleigh, and would be happy to meet up and show you some of how I'm setup. I charge yearly subscriptions for digital content, as well as one-off sales. I use both GC and PP for checking out - <USER2> sense in limiting yourself too much, imo. I have sales from around the world, and GC and PP have covered the overwhelming majority of those sales.

EDIT: Ahh... you're in Durham. I've got to be in Durham this afternoon. If you'd like to get together, ping email@example.com. Also, I'll be at the tripug PHP meeting in Carrboro next Wed evening at 6:30 if you'd care to meet up and review stuff in more detail.

Good luck.

<comment><USER8> Hey, I live in Durham and I'm incorporated as an S-Corp, which can have some advantages (just don't let tptacek hear you talking about them). I'm friends with your boss at TransLoc too. It would be nice to meet up sometime and talk shop. joshua.pearce at that google mail service.

<comment><USER9> There's nothing wrong with S-Corps! They're superior in a lot of ways to LLC's. The only things I get ranty about are: (1) not incorporating at all, and (2) using S-Corps to dodge FICA taxes.

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER10> I'm in the US (Georgia), and the first thing I did to limit liability is to form an LLC (simple overview: <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Limited_liability_company>)

<comment><AUTHOR> I realize the laws are different between the two states, but how expensive and time-intensive was the process?

<comment><USER10> I had an independent accountant do the majority of the work for me for a total of $750. This included virtually all the setup, including verifying the name wasn't taken, filing the paperwork (state and local), all the official docs, getting TaxID, etc.

The process only took a few weeks from start to finish, which was a nice surprise.

<comment><USER11> In the UK setting up a limited company costs under £100, can be done online and takes a few hours.

</comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER12> Some important factors.. what country are you in? What country are your subscribers in? Can you incorporate in a 3rd country?

Regarding payments, there are nothing but horror stories regarding Paypal, and Google doesn't sound that much better. Look carefully concerning this..it could kill your business

<comment><AUTHOR> Edited with details. Thank you.

</comment></comment><comment><USER13> Paypal is a nightmare compared to real merchant accounts. Talking to customer support there is like smashing your hand in a car door.

In the long run you're better off with either Braintree (which is fine all by itself) or Auth.net + Chargify/Spreedly/etc. I would switch to one of those options as soon as you validate the business, as the cost is significant early on.

</comment><comment><USER14> About the second point you would ask your bank if they offer a payment gateway service, and offer Paypal or Checkout as a second option. When I am going to buy something online I trust more a service which charges me through a recognised bank, it feels safer in case I have a problem.

<comment><AUTHOR> My personal finances are with a credit union that most people haven't heard of. Any suggestions of a non-horrible bank? Would using such a service mean that I have to be PCI compliant, or does my application never see the credit card number?

<comment><USER12> Read up on Recurly, Spreedly, and/or Chargify...

and also read this: <http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2169870>

<comment><AUTHOR> Thanks. These look very promising.

</comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER15> I agree that you should consider creating an S-corp.

I live in Europe and suggest using paypal if you are targeting Europeans. Many Europeans do not have credit cards and need to do bank transfers to pay for things online which is why they use paypal.

</comment><comment><USER16> I think you mean exorbitant :)

<comment><AUTHOR> I do indeed. There I go trying to use a fancy word...

</comment></comment><comment><USER17> Why paypal/google instead of a _real_ payments gateway like authorize.net?

<comment><AUTHOR> I was under the impression that using something like authorize.net would impose more restrictions on my application (e.g.: require it to be PCI compliant, etc.) and require more work to get going.

<comment><USER18> I just set up Braintree and it was very easy. Probably not as easy as PayPal + Spreedly, though. If you want to go with a "real" payment gateway, I highly recommend it.

If anything, using Braintree removed all sorts of restrictions. They keep all the credit card information. Let them worry about PCI Compliance, not me.</comment></comment></comment>


Satoshi Nakamoto made a post after years of silence? - <AUTHOR> http://p2pfoundation.ning.com/profile/SatoshiNakamoto <comment><USER2> It seems more likely to me that the ning account was compromised, but this is fun/interesting nonetheless.

For example, reading through his initial launch post is kind of fun:

[http://p2pfoundation.ning.com/forum/topics/bitcoin-open- sour...](http://p2pfoundation.ning.com/forum/topics/bitcoin-open- source?xg_source=activity)

> I've developed a new open source P2P e-cash system called Bitcoin. It's > completely decentralized, with no central server or trusted parties, because > everything is based on crypto proof instead of trust. Give it a try, or take > a look at the screenshots and design paper: ...

<comment><USER3> I enjoyed one of the replies,

> The reason balance of the system is important: if it's going to be used for > payments, you don't want to have large changes in the value of the coins. It > would lead to distortions, I believe, by continually increasing the > "purchasing power" of a single coin.

Stability of the coins' value is desirable for long term use.

<comment><USER4> And yet Bitcoin is one of the most volatile currencies I can thing of, somewhat flies in the face of all of the promises made for it.

<comment><USER5> Not promises, but predictions. I don't think Nakamoto anticipated the massive interest in speculation, which is driving the lack of stability.

Long term, I'm more bullish on solutions like GNU Taler[1][2] that don't try to invent a currency, but instead work with existing currencies to simply transactions. I don't think Taler will necessarily be _the_ solution, but something like it could work out.

\- [1] [https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Micropayment#GNU_Taler](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Micropayment#GNU_Taler) \- [2] [http://savannah.gnu.org/projects/taler/](http://savannah.gnu.org/projects/taler/)

<comment><USER6> Was Bitcoin meant to be an enduring project?

I mean, I get that a lot of people see it that way, but it's always struck me as giving off an experimental vibe. Presumably an enduring solution to something as fundamental as a monetary system should have stronger design principles. By contrast, Bitcoin feels more like a prototype/demonstration of blockchain technology mixed with a social experiment.

</comment></comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER7> To give people a heads up. There has been a huge amount of drama in the Bitcoin space, and this is related to the individual known as Craig Wright.

Craig Wright made a bunch of claims a couple years ago, that he was Satoshi. He released a bunch of "proof" that was proven false.

Recently, he created a new crypto coin callee bitcoin Satoshi's Vision.

This new post is almost certainly another fake attempt by Craig to claim that he is Satoshi.

<comment><AUTHOR> That's a speculation.

<comment><USER8> It's speculation, but if you've been following the drama like I have (I'm not particularly interested in cryptocurrency per se, but I love reading about it like a sporting event), it's almost certainly Craig.

Craig Wright has been caught numerous times falsifying evidence that leads people to think he's Satoshi Nakamoto. It's such a ridiculous ruse, and I think the only reason he's still hanging around is he's backed by a billionaire named Calvin Ayre who has thrown his full weight behind Craig Wright. Ayre built a whole company around Craig that's constantly trying to promote him as being Satoshi.

A couple weeks ago, a new twitter user with the handle @satoshi emerged and tweeted a signature that validates with Satoshi's public key. The problem? A signature in ECDSA can easily be forged using only knowledge of the public key. It doesn't prove anything unless you're signing a non-gibberish message. This is also very similar to a trick Craig Wright already tried when he first tried to claim he was Satoshi in 2016.

The twitter user got suspended, so that got shut down without much of a fuss in the media, but if you follow this closely, you know that Craig was involved based on MO and because the public relations blitz of his company was very carefully coordinated almost exactly when @satoshi started tweeting. (Among other things, @satoshi and Craig's typical twitter posted extremely similar tweets within a few minutes of each other.)

Similarly, in this case, Craig and associated social media accounts started making thinly veiled oblique references to "light" and "nour" at the same time.

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER9> The only way someone can prove they're the "real" satoshi (note: Craig Wright is NOT satoshi, he's a fraud), is to use a known-only-to-satoshi private key to move some arbitrary amount of coin from a very early wallet to a new wallet.

<comment><USER10> And by doing so crash bitcoin value since it is believed those early wallets with lots of coins are effectively destroyed.

<comment><USER9> It seems to be doing a pretty good job of crashing on its own, at present.

<comment><USER11> Laughed out loud. Have some karma.

</comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER12> That site isn't even served over TLS. I don't doubt somebody easily compromised it.

<comment><USER13> If someone compromised it, wouldn't they post something more interesting than '"nour"'?

<comment><USER14> No. Not necessarily.

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER15> This is interesting because Iv'e had countless discussions with Bitcoin Maxamilsits who assume that all of Satoshi's coins are never moving and that he's gone forever.

<comment><USER16> Assume... or hope?

<comment><USER15> I had a CISSP for a few years and used to do security deploys and audits for highly secure systems. One part of our teams process was assessing risk. Based on my training, it looks like they _assume_ the coins will never move. The thing is that nobody knows Satoshi's OpSec and events like this don't help.

People are saying Ning was hacked, but is that for sure? Did Satoshi's computer get hacked, did the Ning get hacked, what happened? We may never know, but for me there has always been a non-zero chance that Satoshi's coins could move. I don't know what the result of that would be.

<comment><USER17> 1) Lots of headlines

2) A new hope to find out his identity. He couldn't really pay someone anonymously without using a tumbler, the tumbler he'd use would gain a ton of PR and could become the quasi-official Bitcoin tumbler.

3) Depends on the amount, but I think there'll be a great fear that he could move all of it - that amount would almost certainly being the Bitcoin economy down since its value is (I think) based on the assumption that the coins will never move, so the BTC price would decrease sharply.

That's my guess.

</comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER18> Since we are throwing out random theories, I feel fairly confident that Satoshi Nakamoto lives on the East Coast of the United States and is unlikely to ever touch any of his previously used accounts.

</comment><comment><USER9> Very interesting that for a website/forum operated by people with a high degree of technical skill, I see no https (TLS1.2) anywhere. All plain http.

<comment><USER19> The entire infrastructure of P2P Foundation Wiki was from 2008, and nobody bothers to rebuild, I believe...

</comment></comment><comment><USER20> I half-ironically propose it is meant to be read as "no, you are"

<comment><USER17> I half-ironically support this.

</comment></comment><comment><USER21> It's interesting to note that Google Translate (on "Detect Language" set) translates "nour" as "Light" in Arabic.

<comment><USER22> Alternatively, the Urban Dictionary defines 'nour' as a very attractive and funny girl.

I find the Satoshi puzzle to be far more interesting than bitcoin itself. The level of operational security Satoshi has achieved is incredible - 'The wise one who lives in the middle' has proven to be a good choice of name. All things considered, I would not be at all surprised if Satoshi turns out to be a small team inside GCHQ, or somewhere similar.

<comment><USER23> Nour/Noor is a very common name for girls.

It is also my name. I am a guy. Thanks Mom and Dad.

<comment><USER24> Short for Noureddine, a common male name. Source: several North African friends with this exact name.

See also [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nur_al- Din](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nur_al-Din)

</comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER25> Maybe Satoshi is a Japanese-Brazilian? (Or -Peruvian, -Uruguayan, etc.) Brazil has some pretty good coders (cf. Lua) who might often find themselves with nothing to do (poor job market) and who have direct experience with the downsides of capital controls (protectionism), plenty of whom are of Japanese descent and who could get away with pretending to be Japanese to throw people off.

<comment><USER26> wot

</comment></comment><comment><USER27> Have you read the Bitcoin Origins story by Phil "Scronty" Wilson?

[http://vu.hn/bitcoin%20origins.html](http://vu.hn/bitcoin%20origins.html)

In it he claims that the Satoshi handle was actually shared by him, Craig Wright and Dave Kleiman, and they created Bitcoin together.

</comment><comment><USER28> This all looks really fake. Plus, there's incentive to fake something like this, because of Satoshi Nakamoto's fame, elusive nature, and lack of identity ownership.

</comment><comment><USER29> It is exceedingly likely that if Satoshi was not Hal Finney, s/he has probably been somewhat active (under a non-Satoshi nym, obviously) this whole time.

<comment><USER30> I firmly believe that Nick Szabo is Satoshi. Academic background, studies currencies, highly intelligent, worked on bitcoin-esque project before. Perhaps he had some help from a few close friends who do not know him as Satoshi.

<comment><USER31> I'm pretty sure most people in the Bitcoin community know this, but it's generally avoided as a topic of discussion out of respect for Szabo.

<comment><USER30> Totally. I just pointed it out as others have speculated. I'm sure nobody will bother him about it and respect his denial. I wouldn't want to be outed as Satoshi either.

</comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER32> Just a curios question: since bitcoin.org was initially bought and maintained by Sathoshi. Is it possible to track some info from domain registrar?

<comment><USER19> Like today, there were a handful of providers of anonymous hosting and domain service. Satoshi registered the domain and hosted the website via anonymousspeech.com. So no, it's not possible to obtain his identity directly from the domain name.

But there is a potential flaw - anonymousspeech.com used to accept cash-in- mail, but stopped for a while, then started accepting cash again. It is unclear whether Satoshi used cash, or credit card/bank transfer. If he used the latter one for payment, the government can just subpoena all the financial records. But there are evidences to believed he used anonymous deposit. So the answer is still no.

IMHO, by today's standard, Satoshi Nakamoto's anonymity is flawed. A large portion of the infrastructure for anonymity and privacy (Bitcoin!!) didn't exist back to that time, in addition, he didn't demonstrate the extreme rigorous practice of operational security similar to underground blackhat hacking groups, for example, he was using GMX as his main mailbox, which was not known for its security, and obviously it was eventually hacked, etc.

In conclusion, he did enough to obtain a reasonable degree of 2008's anonymity. But his anonymity is saved only because it wasn't/isn't illegal so he wasn't a target in the beginning, and by now time has buried all the traces. It probably won't survive a coordinated takedown by multiple law enforcement agencies (something you can accomplish with a fair chance of success today).

<comment><USER17> Regarding GMX: I know it as a very German-focused service, so could we infer something about him this way?

I'm also sure he connected to the site through proxies.

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER33> considering this come when bitcoin it's falling for months and someone wanna bring media attention to bitcoin and push price higher i am certain it's hack, just look for the motivation

</comment><comment><USER34> Also interesting: [https://lists.cpunks.org/pipermail/cypherpunks/2018-November...](https://lists.cpunks.org/pipermail/cypherpunks/2018-November/043904.html)

That's from 2018-11-28, before the ning post.

<comment><USER9> Doesn't mean anything, anyone can create a protonmail address and post to a public mailing list. Grammar and sentence structure reads like a fluent native English speaker that is attempting to impersonate the clumsy writing style of a non-native-english speaker.

<comment><USER34> I get that. But the timing is interesting, no? Just a day or two before the ning post. That suggests to me that somethings up.

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER35> These question marks after statements (or half sentence questions) really need to stop - I was hoping hacker news wouldn't slide into the lazy terrible internet grammar trends.

<comment><USER36> It is probably non native speaker like a Russian for example where it does work that way. (Of course posting in English one is expected to follow rules of English.)</comment></comment>


Windows Laptop Makers Can't Catch Up to the MacBook Air  - <AUTHOR> http://www.pcworld.com/article/237992/windows_laptop_makers_cant_catch_up_to_the_macbook_air.html

<comment><USER2> I've been using a Dual core Atom Netbook as my portable computer for 3 years. 120GB SSD, 9 Cell Battery, 2GB RAM.

Total Price: $450.

Granted, not sexy looking at all. Not particularly thin.

Runs Windows 7 Ultimate like a champ. The only time the low processing power ever bothers me is when I'm unzipping large files.

It's cheap, made of plastic and plastered with stickers. I carry it in my man purse, and bounce it around with me pretty much everywhere I go. I've been doing that for years.

Everything is backed up to DropBox. It's so cheap as to be disposable. If it breaks, I don't care. I'll buy a new one. I have a full set of USB / Network, VGA ports, and I don't have to worry about buying extra dongles to connect things to a projector. The little brute has been stable as a rock. I can't remember a single crash in 3 years.

It has enough battery life for me to be able to Code from Barcelona to SFO on one charge, and I typically charge the little beast about once or twice a week.

Yup. PC makers just can't keep up.

<comment><USER3> Meanwhile, my main system is an Apple laptop which is not much older ... and my OS is now two versions out of date, since Apple stopped supporting it. The set of software I can run on it is becoming more and more limited, as more developers give up supporting my terribly antiquated operating system and hardware, and move on to the current thing.

This is the third time this has happened to me.

I don't care if PC makers can or cannot keep up with Apple. All I know is, this is _my_ last Apple.

<comment><USER4> Install Ubuntu - surprisingly, they now make images which are designed to be installed on macs

[http://cdimage.ubuntu.com/releases/11.04/release/ubuntu-11.0...](http://cdimage.ubuntu.com/releases/11.04/release/ubuntu-11.04-alternate- amd64+mac.iso.torrent)

<comment><USER3> Unfortunately, my laptop (model posted above) uses the older style ADB- connected trackpad, and the Linux drivers for it are poor, to say the least. I've considered updating them, but honestly haven't had the time, and since I'll replace this thing soon anyway, I probably won't bother.

</comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER5> There used to be a saying about MS; that it took them three goes to get a product right

I was thinking about Apple products, and I think perhaps they deserve this now. Each new (1st gen) product from Apple is a bit short on features and a bit expensive, but they have commitment. 2nd gen is a decent product, and 3rd gen has typically been great. [Cases in point: iPhone, iPod, MacBook Air, Apple TV (3rd gen still to come)]

The difference (between Apple and HP et al) comes down to commitment to a product. Apple (like MS) gear them selves up for the long haul; they expect to spend lots and take years to achieve their vision. Other PC manufacturers (speaking very generally here) seem to have a bit of a half arsed shot at something and kill it if it doesn't fly.

<comment><USER6> I think you're speaking of the late 90's MS, they seem to have lost much of that edge.

Apple does something a bit different. It starts slow, getting the core features right and then builds on them. It doesn't pile on features, they are added slowly only as they mature.

Of course it also drives demand for several years, a very profitable formula.

<comment><USER7> It's what all startups (here) should follow; make a MVP and if it works perfect it. Normal practice you would hope, yet it isn't; comments here and to the article directly are too techy. The 'public' wants the air because it looks great and is easy to use; they don't care about 'power'. Don't take it from me or the article writer; just look at the sales. People who would normally not consider spending $1000 on a laptop _are_ buying these, I can see it around me; men and women, computer illiterates a lot of them, went from 300-400$ netbooks to the latest air. No-one knows what processor or memory they have, they are light, just work and are 'much easier than Windows' (between quotes, because I don't find either one particularly easier or harder than the other one; just a matter of getting used to).

People who talk about 'better specs', 'only a few inches thicker but twice the cpu power', 'does have a dvd drive' are tech or at least into computers; most people are not, they _don't care_.

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER8> _...and Apple has booked solid all the lathes capable of carving a laptop body out of a single block of metal._

This sounds crazy not least of all because they use milling machines to make cases and not lathes. But I'm willing to be educated.

<comment><USER9> The line is remarkably blurry. There's a modern breed of "multiaxis machine" which are capable of both milling and turning. Nobody really knows what to call them, I imagine because they have more in common with industrial robots than a traditional machine tool. Lathe is probably the wrong word for the type of machine in question, but milling machine isn't that much more accurate.

I can confirm that there is a global shortage of certain types of CNC machining capacity. CNC machining is much less common than you might imagine in volume production. It's an expensive process that designers are usually desperate to avoid. Apple raised the bar for fit and finish with the Unibody Macbook and rather caught the rest of the industry on the back foot. A lot of designers and engineers still just don't see why you'd manufacture a housing in such an expensive and convoluted manner. Laptop OEMs are certainly not equipped for it, presenting substantial logistical problems.

<comment><USER8> Thanks for the info.

Just regarding the minor point of nomenclatural pedantry, this video (in last half of <http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3OOtuftGO1U>) shows some machining of the case and I would say that what they are using is indisputably a milling machine.

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER10> He's spot on with one thing: manufacturers shouldn't let their customers tell them what to build. The general public usually doesn't know what it wants until it has already appeared.

<comment><USER11> I agree. You learn about your customer's pains, then build a product to ease them. Asking your customer what features they want is lazy product management and gives you " me, too" products.

<comment><USER12> Yet it still happens all of the time at big companies.

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER13> So ive always been a pc guy. But more and more lately ive been playing around with linux distros. It's about time to get a new laptop, and ive been looking around the market causually for a bit. i really want one with only linux (system 76 looks kinda good). but the more and more I look around, the more i'm drawn to macbooks. they are just SO.FUCKING.SEXY. Their case is perfect. the gui looks incredible. they just work. im pretty much to the point where im going to have to build my own to get what i want, or buy a mac. and its going to be hard to find any kind of case thats as sexy as macs, mostly cuz nobody makes anything like it.

pc companies, listen up. I want linux, on an ssd, in a case that SEPERATES itsself from all your other plastic junk, IN A GOOD WAY. dont be average, dont be consertive, do be a perfectionist. dont try to please everybody. I think this is macs biggest weapon, they dont try to please everybody, they build what steve wants. tfa hit the point perfectly with the hp calc comparisson, and i feel the same way. fucking grow some balls. this goes for cell phones too. Fuck I hate motorolla.

<comment><USER14> Samsung Series 9 are damn sexy but they don't come cheap. For Linux, a Macbook might just make more sense.

</comment></comment><comment><USER15> I mostly agree but I also think it has been done. You couldn't give me an Air for free and get me to give up my Sony VAIO Z. I also have a VAIO TZ here which was way ahead of the Air in its time. To me Sony is one of the few companies building truly innovative PCs but unfortunately they aren't moving enough volume to make them really price competitive at the low end. When you buy them fully loaded they are often slightly cheaper than a high end Macbook (with Apple's killer upgrade prices) but they just don't compete mass market wise in the cheaper price ranges.

<comment><USER16> I know it's not the point of your comment, but I'll point out that one of the major reasons I don't buy Apple products is how uncomfortable I am with the idea of Apple having more control over the tech industry...I simply don't trust them to do right by consumers when given a very strong market position.

Sony is one of the few hardware companies that I trust even less than Apple; actually I have a pretty strong dislike for Sony, not merely distrust. So, I'd be more likely to buy an Apple product than a Sony product if all other things were equal (and all other things aren't equal; Sony products look pretty ugly to me, while Apple products are beautiful).

</comment></comment><comment> Anti-Ratfish > one of the main reasons people don't buy a Mac these days is because they > can't buy one for less than $1,000, pricing your Mac alternative well above > that price doesn't do you any favors.<

I'm not in the US, but isnt the Air $999? Not much less than 1k, but an odd statement considering the focus of the article. Am I missing something?

<comment><USER6> Starts at $999, the one you want is always more. Also, tax isn't included in US prices, so you're looking at ~$1080 + possibly shipping minimum.

</comment></comment><comment><USER17> I personally have a Samsung Series 9. Besides the price tag and battery life (about 3-5 hours), I am happy with it. Unlike the Air, this thing has quite good linux support (the graphics work, but could be better; this is true of all sandy bridge computers). I know someone who used to run linux on his Air, but he gave up after all the crashes. These were related to his Broadcom wireless card, I believe. I used to have a Broadcom in my computer, it worked but I replaced it for a card with dual-band support.

On an Air, a lot of components (like ram and ssd) are soldered on the board. On the Samsung, they are easily replaceable. In fact, I have already put in a new wireless card and added more RAM. It comes apart easily with a Phillips- head screwdriver. In the future, I will probably upgrade the SSD (it has 128GB at the moment). A new 'msata' standard has emerged from all these Ultra- portables, which use the pcie plug.

<comment><USER18> You can upgrade the Air easily, too: just buy a new one. Hey, it is just 1000 bucks. Apple is training us to be good consumers.

<comment><USER19> And you could probably sell the old one for $800. Recent Apple hardware holds it's value pretty well. The guy in line behind me for the iPad 2 launch just sold his iPad 1 that day for $100 less than he paid. So his net was paying $100 for a year of iPad 1 use (minus network fees and tax).

So when will Apple introduce hardware subscriptions?

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER20> I love my Air (and my other Apple products); aside from excellent hardware and software, one of the big advantages for me is that there are Apple retail stores all over -- I can walk in and have a pretty consistently good experience (buying accessories, or getting service, or buying a replacement if necessary); far better than any other computer retail store or mail order process.

For a company, being able to fairly easily get ~30 correctly-configured machines instantly is great too -- with Dell, I'd be stuck waiting until they build and ship, and with HP or other vendors, trying to find a store which stocks them.

<comment><USER21> Really? My experience with Apple stores has been so consistently terrible (long wait times WITH an appointment, techs that can't do anything but send it away for a long wait) that one reason I'm going back to a Thinkpad is the overnight mailers Lenovo drops off when you need something fixed.

<comment><USER20> Where do you live? In SFBA, the Palo Alto University Ave store has consistently been amazing; if you get a business account, service is globally even better.

The PA-U store has done fixes up to basically replacing entire just-out-of- warranty machines for me. I've had same-day repairs, and at worst, 3 day mail away, but usually overnight fixes. A lot of it comes down to how you engage the staff -- being an easy customer (having done all the checks, being really polite, etc.) helps. One big plus is having everything already backed up, so it's ok for them to wipe/replace drives if they need to.

My only complaint is that some markets don't have Apple Stores yet, especially internationally.

Thinkpad service is the one other kind of service which is good; their contract support outside the US is superior to the Apple international support. Unfortunately they don't sell a full line, only laptops (at least, their desktop products are pretty weak in comparison).

On the purchasing side, though, Apple wins hands down. Lenovo is painful because there are 25-50% discounts periodically, so you feel you're being ripped off if you don't buy during those times. And, website without a lot of the options (e.g. you couldn't order a QXGA R51 online, only through the phone), etc. And no good retailer stocking anything but ideapads in person.

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER22> has anyone else noticed horrible dithering on the new macbook air's screen? i will say that i absolutely love the machine otherwise, but - especially when e.g. watching a movie - i find this problem terribly distracting and have even thought about returning it as a result.

</comment><comment><USER23> The air also runs windows great

</comment><comment><USER24> They're still pretty hamstrung by Windows- they can never innovate or differentiate in software, Microsoft won't let them.

<comment><USER25> I don't understand your comment. I'm typing on a MBA running Windows 7 like a champ...what is it about Windows that's causing the problem?

<comment><USER24> I mean if you're HP, your Windows 7 is always going to be just the same as Dell's Windows 7. If Apple decides that they can use a new scheduling algorithm to better exploit current hardware, they can do that. Acer and Asus have to wait for Microsoft to release a patch or roll out the next version of Windows (in... N years).

I'm not taking the position that Windows 7 is so intrinsically terrible that it can't support the 'ultrabook' category, just like you're not supporting the position that it couldn't be improved upon.

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER26> I have a macbookpro and a dell, well I prefer my dell

<comment> Anti-Ratfish This is about the Air, different product line.</comment></comment>


Show HN: Our iPad app for music notation & composition - <AUTHOR> http://www.symphonypro.net

<comment><USER2> This is great. Bought, downloaded, and have some initial impressions. My background is that I do a metric crap load of arranging, primarily for the New York Holiday Singers ( <http://newyorkholidaysingers.com> ) in Sibelius, using the keyboard and keypad rather than MIDI input.

* First thing I did was export a PDF to see the engraving. Some quirks around that: \- No title or composer showed up. \- Measures of 8th notes in V2 were beamed all together rather than broken up. Kind of awkward looking. \- I had four staves, all with treble clef, even though I'd kept the default piano layout with bass & treble.

* When adjusting an existing note's pitch, it would be nice to get the targeting lines that you get when adding a new note. Also, consider adding a zoom reticle off to the side of the finger location, please! :)

* I love the d-pad; what a great approach. I love the UI. I love the drag-area eraser. Great work. The UI is very concise, discoverable, and intuitive. I loved the text tool, and wish it could follow notes so I could do lyrics. I don't love that there was no obviously discoverable way to delete or add bars, though like i said it was only a brief run-through and i may have missed it.

* I wish there was a two hand mode when in landscape with the keyboard running vertically along the right edge so I could do rapid input with my left thumb choosing note lengths & the like and my right inputting the pitches.

* I also wish I could jump to a location in the score with a tap in the slider at the top instead of having to drag the handle. If it's possible, the hit targets may need adjustment.

These initial, few issues aside, I would /already/ use this app nearly full- time in a heartbeat if it had lyrics support. I'm sure you'll get a thousand feature requests! I always had a sneaking suspicion that editing sheet music on the iPad would be fantastic, and in the few minutes I used this app the incredible tactile connection to the music was already established. This far exceeds a MVP release, and was already worth my money. I can't wait to see where you take it next. Congrats!

<comment><AUTHOR> I really appreciate the feedback. This is what drove at least 80% of the development time. We spent more time fixing issues and adding certain features that beta testers reported & requested than developing the gist of the application. (i.e. we thought we were done but actually were far from it - this was the obstacle I was talking about).

By the way, you can delete bars by tapping the gear icon and then tapping a measure to open a popover.

We will make a better PDF export system and advanced lyrics and chord notation support.

Again, many thanks.

</comment></comment><comment><AUTHOR> We just released an iPad app called Symphony Pro. I'd like to know what you guys think! We applied to YC on the basis of music composition on the iPad last spring, didn't get in, but eventually pulled through. Development did take a while due to some obstacles.

Some Promo codes:

P6R7WHPKMNTP 63X7RFEPHTP6 4KKYR9TX7KNA

I can give more if they are used up

<comment><USER3> Have ben looking for that! The visual at least looks great. [EDIT: my bad - just saw the Promo codes.. thanks! ]

Today though I compose mostly playing so a MIDI interface in the future would be killer! :)

</comment></comment><comment><USER4> Downloading it now, although I won't be able to play with it until this evening. From what I can see in the screenshots on your web site, it looks beautiful. I'm especially interested in seeing how well the Lilypond export capability works, as I've experimented with that in the past.</comment>


Behind the Scenes with the World's Top Feather Detective - <AUTHOR> http://www.audubon.org/magazine/winter-2016/behind-scenes-worlds-top-feather-detective <comment> d--b Pepper Trail, really?!</comment>


Lift 2.0 released - <AUTHOR> http://liftweb.net/20_release.html <comment><USER2> Fantastic! I plan on using it.

Who is using it and for what?</comment>


Statistical Anomaly Detection - anand-s http://www.ebaytechblog.com/2015/08/19/statistical-anomaly-detection/ <comment><AUTHOR> Been there, done that, found much better ideas, tested them out, and much more.

I started in such things via artificial intelligence at IBM and gave a paper on the work at an AAAI IAAI conference at Stanford.

Later I took a different approach:

Sure, we want:

(1) To exploit data on several variables, jointly, easily seen as much more powerful than processing the variables one at a time. Processing the variables one at a time usually means that the geometrical region where do not raise an alarm has to be a box, just a box, with edges parallel to the coordinate axes. Bummer.

My work does great even if the region where we raise an alarm is a fractal, e.g., the Mandelbrot set or its complement, yes, in two dimensions or 20 or more.

(2) To be able to select and set false alarm rate and get that rate exactly.

(3) Know the 'severity' of a detection, say, the lowest false alarm rate for which would still have a detection.

(4) Do well on detection rate -- clearly we can't do as well as in the best possible Neyman-Pearson result, but still there is a powerful sense in which we can be the best.

For the above, I worked out how and wrote the code.

I tested the technology and code on some data from a cluster of servers at a large, famous company. My work performed just as predicted.

<comment><USER2> That sounds very interesting. Could you provide any links to papers or methods used ?

<comment><AUTHOR> Sure, but we should take that _off-line_.

What is just crucial, really, what it's all about, that is, where the value is, necessarily, inescapably is just in the two rates, the false alarm rate and the detection rate. If can't say at least good things about false alarm rate, then have a _definite maybe_.

The OP struggled with the false alarm rate \-- my work solved that problem.

Really, essentially inescapably and necessarily, the core of the work has to be a statistical _hypothesis test_.

So, what is that? We make an assumption, typically, that the system we are monitoring is _healthy_. Commonly that assumption is called the _null hypothesis_ , that is, _null_ in the sense of _nothing wrong_.

That assumption leads to some mathematical assumptions that can be used as hypotheses in some theorems with proofs.

Then, that assumption with some real data let's us calculate the probability of getting data _like_ we just observed.

If that probability is relatively small, then we have (A) the system is healthy and we just observed something quite rare or (B) the system is sick. If the probability is really small and/or the health of the system is really important, then we guess that case (A) is too rare to be believed, we reject the assumption, the null hypothesis, and conclude (B) that the system is sick.

That's a short description of _statistical hypothesis testing_ for 100+ years a main pillar of pure and applied statistics and a lot in science, both social and physical.

But for monitoring computer server farms, this context very much need the test to be both multidimensional and distribution-free. The world wide collection of those was from tiny down to zero -- likely and apparently zero. So, I invented a nice, large collection of them.

The core of the work was really some novel derivations, right, with theorems and proofs, in, call it, _applied probability_.

Then I worked out some algorithms to make the computing fast.

The work is likely and apparently the best approach to do _zero day_ monitoring for _health and wellness_ in high end server farms and networks. And there may be some other applications.

 _Zero day_ is the case where we are looking for problems never seen before. So, it's sometimes called _behavioral_ monitoring.

Sure, should monitor for all problems have seen before, and there we should be able to do relatively well on the two rates. But, after those old problems, we still need to look for new ones -- sorry 'bout that.

I did this work a long time ago and presented it, or put it in front of, a lot of people, but no one was much interested.

From time to time, people have, as in the OP, rediscovered the problem and done this and that with it. E.g., there was a project of profs Fox and Patterson at Stanford and Berkeley funded by Google, Microsoft, and Sun and in part considered monitoring -- looking at their work, I thought that mine was better.

Sure, there was

[http://www.sans.org/resources/idfaq/behavior_based.php](http://www.sans.org/resources/idfaq/behavior_based.php)

where it was claimed that behavioral monitoring had high false alarm rates. Nope -- my work doesn't! Instead, with my work, get to select false alarm rates over a wide range, including quite small.

I have another project, and for it I recently completed writing the version 1.0 software -- 18,000 programming language statements in 80,000 lines of text (with comments, blank lines, etc). I want to go live ASAP. This project is much easier for people to like! E.g., don't have to get people interested in rates of false alarms and detections. If the project grows, then I will implement and deploy my anomaly detection ideas for my server farm.

Otherwise, for now, I'm no longer interested in that anomaly work mostly because no one else is. Others are welcome, from time to time, to rediscover the problem, struggle with false alarm rate, see no good, general results on detection rate, etc., think that the key is artificial intelligence or machine learning or some such (I didn't use either), etc. Uh, it's statistical hypothesis testing, guys. Sorry 'bout that.

For more, see, say some of the classics:

E. L. Lehmann, _Testing Statistical Hypotheses_.

E. L. Lehmann, _Nonparametrics: Statistical Methods Based on Ranks_.

Sidney Siegel, _Nonparametric Statistics for the Behavioral Sciences_.

Once I presented my work to Cisco. Their reaction was that my work was "just statistical". Well, what the heck do you expect? Want something deterministic, 0 or 1, for healthy or sick? Do you realize what the heck you are asking for?

Another time I presented the work and the reaction was, "What we really want is diagnosis." Gads. You are Sony -- or some other big organization, take your pick from various headlines from current to going way back -- and your server farm is under attack with gigabytes or terabytes on the way out the door to hackers, your whole company is at risk of going belly up, and you don't want to know that there's a serious problem until you can also be told just what the heck to do about it? Sure that's your view?

Gee, you don't want to know that your car's about out of gas unless you are also told that you can get more gas right away? Ever drive in rural Montana? Like long walks? What about engine oil pressure or coolant temperature -- don't want to know about those, either? Or your blood pressure? Not until can be told just what to do about it? Sure about that?

It's an important problem. I did the work. It's good work. But if people are not much interested, then so be it -- I'm not into pushing big rocks up long hills for no good reason.

Suspicion: A guy has a sore on his foot. He knows it's there. It hurts. But he lives with it. He's tried this and that, but he still has the sore. Someone has a good cure, but he is so used to putting up with the sore that he ignores the good solution. Besides, he didn't see a way to cure the sore so doesn't believe that anyone else could either.

Even worse, my solution is not really _computer science_ but is, really, some applied math, actually _applied probability_ , and such work, especially new such work, is rare in practice.

More generally, good, new stuff is rare, so rare that people are very reluctant to consider that they should pay any attention to it.

Fine: Let them live with a sore foot.

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER3> For those following along - this method attempts to do anomaly detection in 3 dimensions: time, 'metric' and query. I interpret query to be something like 'polo shirts' or 'PEZ dispensers,' and metric to be something like 'sales volume' or 'median sale price.'

The 'aggregation' method just takes a preset number of changes (10 'percentile' or 'quantile' \- the language is inconsistent) in a metric-query pair for a given time. After that, I get really confused (if you fix T, how can you have timeseries in T?) but the final output is essentially top 90 percentile of metrics, plotted over time (and independent of query). It's difficult to see how this method is groundbreaking or novel.

At any rate - the final step in this post is to search for anomalies _by metric_. So if you have more than _k_ anomalous metrics for a given time _t_ you classify that as a disruption. I think this is calculated by median absolute deviation, which is probably fine.

What isn't clear in the paper or in the post is how many (or which!) anomalies in the metrics are sufficient to qualify as a disruption. It's probably not a great idea to assume equal weight on the features, but I don't know if that's what's going on here. The associated paper also claims that 70% of the 'alerts' were on-target - but makes no mention of how many disruptions were uncaught. You're always going to have pretty good hit rate, but you're not always going to catch a lot!

</comment><comment><USER4>
      > median price of the returned items

I wonder what action could be taken in case of median price anomaly. Would this be an indicator of price gauging or auction flooding? Do queries weigh price by time-to-auction - I would expect price variance to be non-stationary. If it's true positive, how do you fix it?

Other notes:

(1) It's hard to determine whether the proposed algorithm was successful without a feedback system which would tag true and false positives postmortem.

(2) I wish the raw data used for this project and similar studies were available, e.g. [http://webscope.sandbox.yahoo.com/](http://webscope.sandbox.yahoo.com/). Yahoo datasets are permission-only and are not available unless you're a researcher at .edu

<comment><USER3> It doesn't look like the intent of this system is to detect price gauging, etc. but rather to detect service outages/disruptions. Agree that high variance makes 'jump-based' methods such as this fail a lot. The associated paper claims a 30% false positive rate. But in the case of a true positive, if you know which metric is failing, then that's a very good jump off point to respond to the disruption.

Having benchmark datasets could mean more semi-supervised approaches, compared to unsupervised approaches (such as this one). But - what would the end-result be? Everyone has different metrics, so unless you merely use the datasets as raw numbers to feed into an algorithm, you're unlikely to get meaningful results.

</comment></comment><comment><USER5> As a Data Science intern at eBay, I'm really excited to see eBay on the front of HN. We have some other interesting anomaly detection algorithms, but I guess they're saving that for another post.

</comment><comment><USER6> Pardon me for being blunt, but this is really fucking cool.</comment>


Nosh: Utilities for initializing, running, and shutting down BSD systems - <AUTHOR> https://jdebp.eu/Softwares/nosh/ <comment><AUTHOR> Portable to Linux as well.</comment>