Show HN: three.io = available 3 letter .io domains - <AUTHOR> http://three.io <comment><USER5> I thought I'd spend a few lines in irb and implement two.io for you right here in a comment ;-) Here are the available two letter io names from /usr/share/dict/words, /usr/bin commands, and bash builtins:

ah.io, ay.io, di.io, ea.io, ey.io, fa.io, fc.io, fe.io, fg.io, ha.io, he.io, ju.io, ka.io, oe.io, or.io, ow.io, pu.io, ra.io, te.io, ti.io, tu.io, ut.io, wa.io, wi.io, wu.io, wy.io, ya.io, ym.io, yn.io, yr.io, du.io, ld.io, lp.io, m4.io, nm.io, wc.io

UPDATE: It just struck me that two letter domains might be rather hard to register. I'm looking at the T&Cs now. It is notable how many _are_ marked as being registered in the WHOIS though.

UPDATE 2: Neither of the third party registrars I tried allowed two letter .io domains but the central nic.io does.

UPDATE 3: I visited rb.io (which I wanted ;-)) and found this blog post of just a cpl weeks ago on the same topic: [http://www.russellbeattie.com/blog/two-letter-io-domains- ava...](http://www.russellbeattie.com/blog/two-letter-io-domains-available)

<comment><USER6> It's pretty rare a NIC allows two letter domains so it might be a general limitation, but they are possible. Either that, or our domain (ep) is just a very persistent hallucination.

<comment><USER5> Isn't everything? ;-) Thanks for the heads up. It does seem nic.io will do it but both Moniker and IWantMyName barfed on them.

I'm tempted but I already own "no.gd" (a rather undiscovered TLD if there were one - and they allow 2 letter domains!) and have little enough use for it already..

<comment><USER7> There are quite a few TLDs offering 2-letter domains. These are the ones that can be registered without any restrictions:

.AG .CX .GD .GS .GL .HT .LC .MS .MU .PE .TC .TL .VG

Also see <http://iwantmyname.com/short-domain-search>

<comment><USER5> Thanks! This is very useful.

I also heard about .gg and .je (Guernsey and Jersey - British Crown Dependencies off of the French coast) which can be registered directly at <http://www.channelisles.net/applic/application.shtml> (but they handle them manually so you have to wait a few days).

</comment></comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER8> This would be awesome if you could combine the list with availability of <xxx>io.com -- to know when you could get both the shorter <xxx>.io and the traditional .com

<comment><AUTHOR> That's a good point, I may be able to implement that this evening.

Edit: Right now iwantmyname.com is too bogged down for me to get the data... :) I'll have to wait a bit

<comment><USER7> Yep, we're working on it. Sorry for the problems.

 _Update_

Site performance should be much better again. Now having an issue with our domain search due to too many connections.

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER9> Let the domain squatting begin. =P

Honestly though, at least its a $100 to register. At that price hopefully it will deter a lot of squatters from buying up all the domains. "For GBP 60 (approx US$ 100) for year one and GBP 30 (approx US$ 50) per year thereafter." (<http://www.nic.io/>)

</comment><comment><USER10> Shame, eie.io is gone

[Edit: I stole this idea from PowerPC, which has an eieio (Enforce In-Order Execution of I/O) instruction]

<comment><USER11> That was probably the first .io domain registered.

<comment><USER12> That or... Rad.io Rat.io Portfol.io etc..

<comment><USER13> fellat

<comment><USER14> Still up for grabs, unlike cunniling.us

</comment></comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER15> I'm too cheap to get it, but I think that threep.io is a perfect domain... ;)

<comment><USER16> Sorry, I registered it. Once the process is finished it will join my nerd- flock and redirect to my professional site unless I decide to make something for it. :)

</comment></comment><comment><USER17> Very cool, added you to <http://domaingroovy.com>

<comment><USER18> We launched Rewordious a few weeks ago, do you think you could add us?

<http://www.rewordio.us>

<comment><USER17> Added. Cool project, I especially like the [keyword] part.

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER6> Two-letter ones are 'cooler' - we grabbed ep.io a few months back - but the NIC don't allow language or country codes as two letter domains, IIRC. Still, there's plenty left, as petercooper's comment says.

</comment><comment><USER19> Seems like got.io would be kind of cool for someone specializing in high speed storage. Thanks for posting, I'm enjoying trying to come up with ideas based on the names alone.

<comment><AUTHOR> I know, it is kinda fun.

</comment></comment><comment><USER20> Excellent!

Could you add a check for the name as a .com? For example, next to ace.io display "+.com" for available or "x .com" for unavailable.

[Edit: I noticed these are checked just once per day. Perhaps add a link to check the .com? As in, ace.io 2011-02-15 ( _aceio.com?)_ with aceio.com linked to <http://iwantmyname.com/search?domain=aceio.com> ]

<comment><AUTHOR> Yes, I think thats a good idea. I can add that in later this afternoon.

</comment></comment><comment><USER9> General question about anyones experience with domains that done end in .com

How hard coded is the .com extensions when it comes to the general public these days (your mom/uncle who just uses the internet to read email, if that much)? If you told someone your domain was foobar.io and you ask them to repeat the domain would they say foobario.com?

<comment><USER21> Some people still do, yes. I usually avoid giving them verbally to anyone non- technical. Giving them in writing is never a problem.

</comment></comment><comment><USER22> Cool utility. Surprised at how many three letter domains are still left.

Guess they'll be going away more quickly now...

<comment><USER23> and those are just the ones that correspond to english words.

If every 2/3 letter combination were available as a tld, you would have 320,797,152 3-letter domains . . .

I'd like to see some kind of analysis of how many WORD.xx domains are actually in use, just to get an idea of whether the cyber-squatting market is due for a correction.

<comment><AUTHOR> I agree it would be very interesting to see that analysis. What do you mean by a correction?

<comment><USER23> I mean the cost of buying a domain from a squatter could presumably go down.

</comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER24> Some feature requests: 1) add a realtime search function OR a way to navigate by letter

2) add an input that allows me to choose 3,4,5,6 letter domains.i know that's not the focus of the site, but still. would be cool.

Also, are you getting any kind of referral fee for sending over customers? hope so!

</comment><comment><USER25> The last I looked (a couple of months ago) there were still a lot of 2 letter domains available on .io. Has that changed?

[Edit: Nevermind, I see that this is using 3 letter words, not just any 3 letter combination]

</comment><comment><USER26> Ended up here: <http://three.io/three_letter_words?page=3>, and got an error. Might want to check your rails' production log :P

<comment><AUTHOR> Thanks!

</comment></comment><comment><AUTHOR> Hey, if you buy one of these domain names please let me know!

<comment><USER12> I bought rap.io

<comment><USER12> But now I don't know what to build there. <http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2228700>

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER27> Perfect! I'm tired of explaining my goofy email address to people. Thank you for the solution!

</comment><comment><USER28> What registrars sell .IO domains?

<comment><USER9> <http://www.nic.io/new.html>

<comment><USER5> Just don't use Moniker in this case as their dates mismatch and can cause trouble: <http://peterc.org/blog/2010/345-moniker-deactivation.html>

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER29> Saw ass.io and giggled. Hehehe.

<comment><AUTHOR> I did too, had to stop myself from spending the $75 on something I definitely didn't need :)

</comment></comment><comment><USER30> Isn't the .io TLD too technical of a term for a non-tech site ?

</comment><comment><USER31> I wanted sum.io, but I was too slow. Did anybody here get it?

<comment><USER31> I now registered pie.io instead. I hope I didn't waste another 70€ on domain squatting...

Here is my idea: simple polls for Twitter. There is twtpoll, but it is not actually very good in my opinion.

The pie will hopefully remind people of pie charts... Also, it allows for the tag line "polls easy as pie".

What do you think?

Would welcome feedback, also perhaps suggestions for better names (it is difficult for non-native speakers).

</comment></comment><comment><USER32> Damn. eie.io has gone

</comment><comment><USER33> cat /usr/share/dict/* | perl -ne's/io$/.io/ && print lc if length == 6'

<comment><USER33> $ for domain in `cat /usr/share/dict/* | perl -ne's/io$/.io/ && print lc if length == 6'` ; do whois $domain | grep "\\- Available" ; done Domain "DUR.IO" - Available Domain "DUS.IO" - Available Domain "FER.IO" - Available Domain "GOB.IO" - Available Domain "IDD.IO" - Available Domain "KOK.IO" - <USER4> Domain "NGA.IO" - Available Domain "PAP.IO" - Available Domain "SOD.IO" - Available Domain "TUR.IO" - Available Domain "DUR.IO" - Available Domain "DUS.IO" - Available Domain "FER.IO" - Available Domain "GOB.IO" - <USER4> Domain "IDD.IO" - Available Domain "KOK.IO" - Available Domain "NGA.IO" - Available Domain "PAP.IO" - Available Domain "SOD.IO" - Available Domain "TUR.IO" - <USER4>

</comment></comment><comment><USER34> spy.io -- Thanks!

<comment><AUTHOR> Sweet! Glad you got it!

</comment></comment><comment><USER35> fix.io and try.io, Thanks</comment>


Bing Continues Growth, Ad Impressions & Clicks Way Up - <AUTHOR> http://searchengineland.com/bing-ad-impressions-clicks-way-up-report-46336

<comment><USER2> I tried to use MS adcenter (<https://adcenter.microsoft.com>) to buy some more advertising.

Using the latest Chrome dev channel:

"The current browser is not supported. To see a list of supported browsers, see About System Requirements."

MS, I hate you. You obviously don't want to take my money.

Agree, these graphs are awful. It's a lot easier to double your search traffic if you start off with hardly any.

<comment><USER3> Unfortunately that's not MS-specific. The revered Google used to have the same no-go warning for users of Adwords with Opera. I tried it again just now, the warning is gone, but the Adwords interface doesn't load properly (more specifically the dashboard loads, however campaign editor and "Opportunities", whatever that is, don't).

I can't imagine how this is not deliberate.

<comment><USER4> Google still says Safari 5 is not supported, I should upgrade. Apparently Safari 4 is better. Ugh.

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER5> I actually switched from Google to Bing about two weeks ago. And, to be honest, I can't really tell the difference.

</comment><comment><USER6> Awful graphs.

<comment><USER7> Slight improvements - [http://www.prettygraph.com/blog/some-ad-stats-for-bing- googl...](http://www.prettygraph.com/blog/some-ad-stats-for-bing-google-and- yahoo/)

</comment></comment><comment><USER8> I wonder what internet explorer's stats are and to what degree those trends are based on toolbar generated searches.</comment>


Would you rather have a lighter racing car or a more powerful one? - <AUTHOR> https://twitter.com/dvassallo/status/1171877330282639360 <comment><USER2> It's mostly an irrelevant question that is attaching itself to a more interesting line of thought.

I'd rather have a car well-suited to my purposes, after which literally any fucking information can be used to justify a choice.

</comment><comment><USER3> Lighter. Lightness impacts everything. Power only impacts acceleration. Power also breaks things.</comment>


Ask HN: What fonts do you use most often and why? - <AUTHOR> I've found myself leaning towards Bodoni recently, as a number of brands have adopted it for their logo and it does look pretty appealing, but curious as to what others have been using.<p>Given how important font is, I'm hoping to find some gems in responses that everyone can benefit from. <comment><USER2> I use DejaVu Sans Mono because it brings me joy, and is freely available. This applies whether I am on my work computer (MacBook Pro), or one of my personal computers running some Linux distro.

[1]: [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DejaVu_fonts#Sans_Mono](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DejaVu_fonts#Sans_Mono)

</comment><comment><USER3> Fira Code[1] because I really enjoy its aesthetic (especially the ligatures).

For general purposes, I like Open Sans[2].

[1] [https://github.com/tonsky/FiraCode](https://github.com/tonsky/FiraCode)

[2] [https://fonts.google.com/specimen/Open+Sans](https://fonts.google.com/specimen/Open+Sans)

</comment><comment><USER4> I really like Verdana, Palatino Linotype as far as "default fonts" go. My website uses Cabin for content and Armata for the logo; these are on Google fonts. [https://bigcgi.com](https://bigcgi.com)

</comment><comment><USER5> Arial or Calibri are my goto fonts. I like things to be clear and easy to read.

</comment><comment><USER6> Proxima Nova, it looks good and affordable ($5 a month on Adobe Fonts)

</comment><comment><USER7> Hack and Lucida Sans Typewriter. Hack's been featured on HN.</comment>


Challenges of real-world reinforcement learning - <AUTHOR> https://blog.acolyer.org/2020/01/13/challenges-of-real-world-rl/ <comment><USER2> Reinforcement learning without simulation is not feasible for complex problems.

If you can't simulate, stick to multi-armed bandits.

</comment><comment><USER3> anyone know a good survey paper about current SOA? i've read sutton&barton, skimmed openai "Spinning Up in Deep RL". anything else out there?

<comment><USER4> The Deep RL Bootcamp lectures are still good and relevant:

[https://sites.google.com/view/deep-rl- bootcamp/lectures](https://sites.google.com/view/deep-rl-bootcamp/lectures)

<comment><USER3> beggars can't be choosers of course but i would prefer something to read rather than something to watch</comment></comment></comment>


The Internet is about to get a lot safer - <AUTHOR> http://royal.pingdom.com/2010/01/19/the-internet-is-about-to-get-a-lot-safer/

<comment><USER2> how will this work? will i need to pay a certificate supplier to secure my own address? how much will that be? and how do i configure my local dns server/cache so that this information is propagated?

</comment><comment><USER3> So besides twitter being redirected to google (for example), how will this really affect the browsers of the internet? I assume by safer- the article meant for users.

<comment><USER4> DNS hijacking can mean things like redirecting Google to your own servers and then catching people's Gmail logins. Some popular website (e.g. Facebook) could have their DNS redirected to a website that exploits a user's browser. So you go to facebook.com and you end up with malware or a virus.

</comment></comment><comment><USER5> Don't hold your breath, the Internet has been "about to get a lot safer" for over a decade.

<comment><USER6> Yes, there's a lot of inertia in infrastructure. And the Internet's infrastructure isn't as centralized as, say, the power infrastructure. There's a lot of links in the DNS chain that will have to be replaced. And I shudder to think about all the links that won't be replaced until they die.</comment></comment>


Make your own Beat Box songs only using drag and drop - <AUTHOR> http://www.incredibox.com Here are 3 songs I made:<p>http://www.incredibox.com/en/#/?music=4FAD52CD8EA23 http://www.incredibox.com/en/#/?music=4FAD3079C45AD http://www.incredibox.com/en/#/?music=4FAD1B088D847 <comment><USER2> Discussion from two weeks ago - many, many comments: <http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3900711></comment>


Simple consumer bank concept copied in the Netherlands (Dutch) - <AUTHOR> http://www.knab.nl

<comment><AUTHOR> For the non-Dutch speaking, the feature highlights just below the fold are:

      - A complete financial dashboard
      - A financial planner
      - Access to financial advisors without a sales motive for Knab
      - "Alerts" to be notified of fiscally attractive options for your current situation

      - All this for 15 euros a month, no hidden charges

Clearly they're not a 100% Simple ripoff, but it seems to boil down to pretty much the same "revolt" against current consumer-banks-that-hate-consumers. All-online, no hidden charges, online tools that help you deal with your money better and faster: the core ideals are the same.</comment>


Why didn't people in finance pay attention to Benoit Mandelbrot? - <AUTHOR> http://blogs.reuters.com/justinfox/2010/10/18/why-didn't-people-in-finance-pay-attention-to-benoit-mandelbrot/ <comment><USER4> Because what his theory boils down to is that you can't predict the market. Pointing out that the market is describable by a self-similar fractal froth is an interesting thought, but it basically means that if true, you can't predict anything with any effectiveness. (Oh, you might be able to use that idea to tune yourself up something that might work slightly better on a small time scale, but as the market has sped up that small time scale has gotten awfully small....)

Who wants to listen to a party pooper like that?

I've found a similar problem at work. It is my belief after studying the problem for years, reading the work of many other of our smartest people trying to solve it, and over a decade of experience, that estimating software times are simply impossible except in the grossest of terms on any significantly-sized project, especially as you get into the multi-month estimates. Once you accept that, you can actually deal with it; Agile is in some sense a response to this problem. But try convincing other people of that fact. They'll tell you marketing needs some idea of when features go out, that management needs some ability to plan on things, that sales needs some concept of when to sell features. Well, _too bad!_ None of that makes it _possible_. That is simply an extended explanation of why it sucks that we can't have these accurate estimates. And yeah, I'll play the game because it's still better than nothing.

I'm somewhat less sure that's true in the financial world. Shall we say, the _evidence somewhat suggests_ that pervasive underestimation of risk can _potentially_ have _slightly negative_ effects on the global economy.

<comment><USER5> _Who wants to listen to a party pooper like that?_

Yes, yes, yes! The exact correct point.

Mandlebrot's finance papers, in published in the 1960's, refute Black and Schole's Nobel Prize winning theories of the 1990's. Who wants to hear _that_?

Does Mandlebrot rate a Nobel himself? _Why of course not..._

Mandlebrot pointed the way to "another country", one which marketing can not describe...

<comment><USER6> Actually, I thought I read about someone who bought a certain position in the market such that, if everything was priced correctly, they would lose a known amount of money each day.

But every time a "black swan" sort of event occurs, they'd make big money. It was on TV, so I don't have a citation handy, but I suppose that they could be said to be making money off of the assumption that people can't correctly price these things.

<comment><USER7> That would be Taleb & Universa (the true extent of whose success has been questioned, fwiw)

</comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER8> For those who don't understand the Black-Scholes references, here is a quick explanation.

What Black and Scholes proved in their famous paper is that if you start with a portfolio containing a certain fraction of money and stock, and rebalance the portfolio constantly as the stock price moves according to certain rules, then after a fixed amount of fluctuation in the stock price you will be left with either pure stock or pure money, depending on the eventual price of the stock. In short, this portfolio acts exactly like an option. And therefore the price of an option should match the price of the portfolio. If it doesn't match, then you can buy one and sell the other to get free money until they do match.

This is fine, but in the real world we trade options based on a fixed period of time, not a fixed amount of variation in the stock. The answer to this which finance uses is to estimate the volatility of the stock. Given known volatility, and a known time period, you can tell how much variation there is, and then use the Black-Scholes model to price options.

Mandelbrot's critique of this is that volatility itself is not constant. Therefore you can't really predict when the Black-Scholes portfolio will expire. In particular the model systemically underestimates the likelihood of extreme events. When this catches all of finance off guard, the result is frequently some sort of crisis.

</comment><comment><USER9> My suggestion why people didn't pay attention? He had no real theory. I've read a couple of his books, here is the general formula: "Look, gaussian's don't fit the market well. Aha, I've made a graph that looks visually correct!"

Now, it's absolutely true that gaussian's don't fit the market well - <USER2> only work sometimes. The thing is, everyone knows this, and tacks on additional features to explain the other phenomena. For instance, one might assume movements are normally distributed, except for short term spikes followed by high volatility. A good risk manager will throw non-gaussian volatility at a model during backtesting.

Mandelbrot's fractal story just didn't add much. The black scholes story has some convincing theoretical background (it assumes an "evil" market out to get you [1]). It misses things, but many of the things it misses can be added in, in a more or less convincing way - e.g., I understand the black scholes part of my model handles small movements, and the stochastic jumps handle the big ones.

All Mandelbrot's model gives me is a graph that kind of looks right - <USER3> doesn't give me any understanding.

[1] This is not the textbook description, but Bob Kohn convinced me this is the best way to think of it.

<comment><USER10> This would be fine, except that the short, rare, unpredictable spikes are overall responsible for as much variation in value as the "predictable" movements, which more or less makes all the exercise quite pointless.

<comment><USER9> How does the fact that a model has two features make understanding one of them pointless?

If you are seeking a grand unified theory of everything, maybe it's pointless. Black Scholes is just a model. If you are seeking to make money, Black Scholes is one tool that can help you do that. And make no mistake - people do make billions trading models which incorporate elements of Black Scholes.

<comment><USER10> They make billions for some time, then all their profits are wiped out by some "black swan". Fortunately, our governments are here to save the day...

</comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER11> They didn't ignore him. Fat tails and jumps are just really hard to estimate in finance. More interesting is that the unstated premise for these link-bait titles (aka great headlines) is "If only they had listened to Mandelbrot, we could have avoided all these problems."

It is nearly absurd on the face of it, but worth a comment. Like Louis Bachelier's description of stochastic processes in 1900, mathematicians like Mandelbrot have been inspired by financial time series to develop formal _descriptions_ of the phenomena. Sometimes, this leads to a marginally deeper understanding of the object of study.

Regardless, mathematicians and other scientists have little interest in developing _prescriptions_ that would help control or reduce volatility. Most observers seem to think that the amount of financial volatility is way too high in comparison to the underlying economic realities. A few, like Fisher Black, have had the opposite opinion and suggested that the prospects of the underlying economy (including human capital) are actually hugely volatile. Virtually all take the structure of markets as a given and assume they are low-friction and generally structured well.

My own opinion is that volatility is mainly a function of information starvation in the market. Just look at the poor quality of financial accounting, auditing, and the cherished secrecy of large risky positions and you can see possible areas to unlock information flow that would allow markets to do a better job of tracking "true" value and ignoring chaff generated by the act of trading.

<comment><USER12> Or just look at banks.

If we did not have deposit insurance from the state, banks would probably be much more pro-active in disclosing all their positions (including liabilities), so that people still trust them. Some banks showed their liabilities in the crisis, but this was way too late for people to pick them apart, so it did not help with the trust.

<comment><USER11> Excellent point. Instead we trust the regulators to make sure banks are a-ok. We would do well to "crowdsource" bank regulation by requiring banks to stream their positions to the public.

<comment><USER12> Yes, and just don't offer deposit insurance, so that the public scrutiny has some bite. Similar to how the `bond market vigilantes" the Economist is so fond of keep the yield on government debt in line with the governments' fiscal and monetary policies.

</comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER13> I used to explain this with Upton Sinclare's great quote: "It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it!"

Now, older and perhaps a bit more jaded, I would modify that to "Do not assume that someone doesn't understand something. Assume that _he_ is assuming someone _else_ doesn't understand that something."

Or, more succinctly, "There's a sucker born every minute."

<comment><USER14> Sinclare's quotation describes a self-actuated internal lack of awareness while yours does not.

<comment><USER13> Call it personal growth.

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER15> The most important take-away from Mandelbrot / fractals as it applies to finance should be the realization that fractals can represent better ways of presenting or simulating financial data than brownian motion / random walks / Black-Scholes. As to why this hasn't been accepted more broadly - well, as the article briefly mentions, there are powerful individual incentives for people to continue to play along in the charade.

If this has not been proved EXTREMELY WELL by events in recent history, I don't know when it would be - but whether from LTCM, or more recently seeing so many CDS etc blow up, it is obvious that many "once in a million" probability events exist than are considered in a proper normal distribution.

Mandelbrot was once asked whether he had any particularly successful strategies for dealing with the market. He said, well, I don't discuss those things - because if I was correct, everyone would follow my lead, and the strategies would no longer work; and if I was wrong, people would discredit the thinking behind it!

<comment><USER9> _...but whether from LTCM, or more recently seeing so many CDS etc blow up,..._

I'm confused - how do CDS (did you mean CDOs) blowing up prove that a fractal model of the market is better than the standard Black Scholes + assorted tweaks model?

</comment></comment><comment><USER16> One of them did -- Nassim "Black Swan" Taleb was great friends with Mandelbrot.

<comment><USER17> Mandelbrot had qualitative and quantitative insight, but I am not sure Nassim applied fractal brownian motion modeling/simulation to position himself for tail events, but more simply had the qualitative understanding of where tail event risks were greatly under-priced in the system at the time before anyone else.

In terms of fractal brownian motion vs black-scholes-merton, it is a question of practicality. It is really easy to hedge very complex portfolios with large positions using BSM, especially after adding a few considerations to extreme possibilities in volatility. Without BSM, we'd still be in the dark ages with Option Seller(Writer) firms scalping buyers with option prices 10 times higher inflation-adjusted than today. Mandelbrot doesn't offer a practical alternative, and this is the part that people didn't listen to Mandelbrot on, but that doesn't mean Mandelbrot is not awesome.

</comment></comment><comment><USER18> Recommended Mandlebrot read: 'Fractals and Scaling In Finance' from 1997. [http://www.amazon.com/Fractals-Scaling-Finance-Benoit- Mandel...](http://www.amazon.com/Fractals-Scaling-Finance-Benoit- Mandelbrot/dp/0387983635)

</comment><comment><USER19> Financial markets, from the perspective of mathematics, are quite interesting.

I wrote a paper that referenced some of Mandelbrot's work, namely that cotton markets followed a Levy stable distribution:

<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/L%C3%A9vy_distribution>

It's an interesting distribution as it pops up in nature a lot too, such as how birds find food.

Mandelbrot's work and the work of many others have shown the movement in security prices resemble random walks. There is an awful lot of work that shows markets are basically unpredictable.

Yet the reality is otherwise. People make an awful lot of money by predicting markets, which shouldn't really be true to the degree that it is if movements were random. There are trends like Mondays tend to be down days, Fridays tend to be up days and so on.

Probably the biggest failing of financial modelling is the failure to adequately factor in the fat tail. Incredibly unlikely events tend to be more common than otherwise modelled. The collapse in the subprime mortgage market is the most significant recent example of this.

Warren Buffett once characterized how many traders operate as picking up pennies in front of an oncoming bulldozer. The vast majority of the time it's safe but it's not 100% safe and the consequences are completely disproportionate to the reward. It's a challenge to model that kind of scenario.

Anyway, RIP Benoit Mandelbrot. You were a mathematical visionary.

</comment><comment><USER20> Benoit wrote a scathing critique of modern economic theory and the assumptions upon which it rests. Attacks on fundamental belief systems are generally impolitic.

</comment><comment><USER21> Here are a few pdf's of some articles in Wilmott Magazine touching on this issue, and Mandelbrot's work in general:

<http://www.wilmott.com/detail.cfm?articleID=342>

From the _Emperor With No Clothes_ article:

 _And so why, we are obliged to ask, has one of the most important discoveries in the history of economics failed to inspire a concerted effort to develop a better theory? Perhaps it has to do with Mandelbrot himself and his position vis à vis the kingmakers of economics who reserve the right to bestow acknowledgment. Why has Mandelbrot not been recognized, say, with a Nobel Prize in economics? Because he is considered an "outsider"—trained as a mathematician and active in research that ranges well beyond economics alone? Or has he failed to play by establishment rules and violated some unwritten code of economist conduct?

Why, indeed, should Mandelbrot receive a Nobel prize in economics? The Nobel is the ne plus ultra of global recognition; it carries considerable political weight; it does not go unnoticed; the very fact of the award can stir things up. In Mandelbrot's case, everyone would be made aware that classical economics – quite literally the emperor of our global economy – is without clothes. Younger economists and students around the world would be motivated to search for a better explanation of how economies work and why, and to propose alternative theories validated by actual data and subject to empirical scrutiny. Putting all of us, as real science always does, in the temporarily uncomfortable position of not knowing in order that we may know._

</comment><comment><USER22> I really wouldn't take an article seriously if it partially blames the '87 stock market crash on Black-Scholes (basic model for pricing European options). That makes literally zero sense.

<comment><USER8> It makes literally zero sense unless you know something about that crash and the financial markets of the time. In which case it makes perfect sense.

The Black-Scholes model provides a recipe for creating synthetic options that will (under the assumption of known volatility) act just like real ones. Which is convenient because you can create synthetic versions of options that people want to have but which are not traded. Leading up to the '87 market crash, lots and lots of these synthetic options were created. Then came the crash.

People can debate endlessly about why the crash started. But once it did, there is no question that trading algorithms attempted to close out trades that were necessary to maintain synthetic options. These large trades attempted to execute in markets that had seized up, and made the market much, much worse. The result contributed greatly to the crash, and caused the synthetic options to fail to work as promised. (Besides, the Black-Scholes algorithm guarantees that it acts like an option through a certain amount of variation in the stock price, and not for a particular time period. The volatility of the crash demonstrated the importance of this discrepancy.)

Now do you see how the Black-Scholes model contributed to that crash?

<comment><USER22> automatic trading based on Black-Scholes acerbated the crash != the Black Scholes model contributed to the crash

Unrelatedly, is there anything wrong with, say, a mortgage-backed security accurately priced according to a particular model, so long as the limitations of the particular model's assumptions are properly understood? This applies to any model in economics or finance. All are obviously just simplifications of reality.

The technical assumptions of a mathematical model should not be blamed for the actions of ignorant or reckless investors.

<comment><USER23> You don't get a very big explosion with just a fuse, and no combustible material. Without the combustible material, the fuse just fizzles out, no great harm done.

It's a separate thing to blame a bad idea, versus blaming the people who thought the bad idea was true. Language is ambiguous; trying to weasel one's way out of "this idea is bad" by saying "the people who think this idea, they're bad; it's not the idea itself", is IMO trying to rely on the imprecision of casual language to refute an argument only for a single formulation, but not in spirit. Ideas have no life of their own outside people's heads. The same argument can be applied to say that there is no such thing as a bad idea.

</comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER24> Found this quote interesting.

\---

Black-Scholes and the many financial risk models that have evolved from it (including Felix's friend the Gaussian copula) are all about volatility being measurable and predictable. "When Black-Scholes came out, I said, 'Well, it won't last,'" he told me in 2005. "'I'll come back when it's gone.'"

</comment><comment><USER25> Oh, a lot of them did. Many of those can only be described as religious cult followers - practitioners of Elliott Wave "Theory".

Some even went as far as accusing Mandelbrot of plagiarizing Elliott's work: [http://www.math.utah.edu/vigre/reu/reports/harris_fall2005.p...](http://www.math.utah.edu/vigre/reu/reports/harris_fall2005.pdf)

<comment><USER18> I've read some of Mandelbrot's works on finance and I would never put him in the same category as the "technicians". It's hocus pocus mumbo jumbo that I don't think he would subscribe to (e.g. Elliot Wave's "5 up, 3 down" principle).

<comment><USER21> Agreed. And finance was never the primary objective of Mandelbrot's development of fractals anyway, just a side effect of varying degrees of interest.

Elliot Wave appears to be an attempt to back fit a rather simplistic theory to patterns in financial time series data. Fractals are so much more.

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER26> Money talks so saying "it will never work" to people rolling in money won't have any effect.

Had Benoit raked in the dough, it would be called "The Mandlebrot Strategy" and everyone would be using it.</comment>


How did we make the DOS redirector take up only 256 bytes of memory? - <AUTHOR> http://blogs.msdn.com/b/larryosterman/archive/2004/11/08/254108.aspx

<comment><USER2> This sort of stuff used to be really common. When I first started programming on networks we were using something called Z-NET (800kbps running over coax[1]). The receive buffer was 128 bytes long.

Myself and another school boy wrote enough of a connection based networking system that we could reliably send about 100 bytes of data into that receive buffer. By having our 'protocol stack' then CALL the buffer itself we would execute the code that we had just sent (i.e. the machine code).

Building up from 100 byte chunks we built a network monitoring and management system which allowed things like screen mirroring, chat programs, taking control of the keyboard and broadcast functionality. The entire thing was written in assembly language.

The actual protocol stack was loaded into a part of the BIOS of the machine that was unused and we just grabbed a bunch of NOPs and over wrote them. In the end Research Machines were kind enough to send us the spec. of Z-Net (which they considered somewhat secret) as we'd already reverse engineered the entire thing by disassembling the operating system.

[1] <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Link_480Z#Z-Net>

</comment><comment><USER3> For the people who do not have CONFIG.SYS / DEBUG.COM / MASM kung-fu , please do not give up.. Google, wiki and read up. The journey will be fascinating.

Put your lenses on for jump-offs produced by Google on keywords TSR and LIM EMS for further mind-bending fun.

And quit laughing at HIMEM.SYS

<comment><USER4> I always preferred TASM than MASM.

<comment><USER5> Seconded :) But maybe that's because I used Turbo Pascal and Turbo C++! Just before discovering (and buying) the Watcom compiler.

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER6> Kids, I am old enough to have written a DOS TSR in 8086 assembler! Sadly, you likely have no idea what I'm talking about. Suffice to say, I understand this article completely.

<comment><USER3> I am 29 now. Guilty of the crime of TSR at 13. I officially declare everyone who's commenting on this thread brothers including the brave soul who visited us from the world of Ruby.

<comment><USER5> It hasn't got to be one or another.

I'm visiting from the world of Ruby too, yet I was deep in masm/tasm, 386 dos extenders back then :)

<comment><USER3> nod. My latest vice is Python. Oddly enough, still doing low-level stuff thanks to WDK.

</comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER7> I remember seeing mention of "A20" in old BIOS settings, but I never knew what it did. Today, I know: it enabled access a 64k RAM region.

<comment><USER8> It makes more sense when you know that 'A20 line' stands for '20th address line', and 2^20 (two to the 20th power) is one megabyte, so you need 20 bits to give unique addresses to all of the bytes in one megabyte.

<comment><USER9> Since those lines start counting at A0, it's the 21st bit.

The thing is, with 20 bits you can address one megabyte, but without a 21st line, any calculated offset (be it indirect addressing or, more commonly, segments) will roll over.

For compatibility with some ancient programs that exploited the rollover (access 0xfffff+0x400 -> 0x3ff), 80286+ gained the "A20 Gate", which allows to simulate the rollover effect (by always forcing A20, the 21st line, to 0) or not (in which case you can go above 1MB using offsets).

Note that the A20 Gate is only active in 16bit modes, otherwise even more fun trickery becomes possible (since half the 32bit accesses with A20 pulled low would change, too)

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER10> djgpp ftw.

This was a fun read, and what is scary is how much of this memory is fresh as newly plucked fruits with uncounted boxes full of APIs that have long gone to dust sitting besides it.

Maybe one day it will come in handy again.

In case you don't know what djgpp is: <http://www.delorie.com/>

<comment><USER11> I miss DJGPP. When I was first learning C back in the days when DOS ruled my world, DJGPP is almost invariably what I used. I clicked the "by DJ Delorie" link on his page and saw that he now works for Redhat working on GCC. Strange or not, that continuity brought a smile to my face.

Also found this quote on the History of DJGPP page: _DJGPP was born around 1989 (originally called djgcc), when Richard Stallman spoke at a meeting of the Northern New England Unix Users Group (NNEUUG) at Data General, where I then worked. I asked if the FSF ever planned on porting gcc to MS-DOS (I wanted to use it to write a 32-bit operating system for PCs), and he said it couldn't be done because gcc was too big and MS-DOS was a 16-bit operating system. Challenge in hand, I began._

I like his moxie.

</comment></comment><comment><USER12> Well... I don't want to brag much about it, but on the Apple II+ (I relied on rotines in ROM and it wouldn't work on a plain II) I did a "window stacker" in about 1K of 6502 code... People used it for dialog boxes.

</comment><comment><USER13> Neat stuff -- note that the Linux kernel (and probably others, I'd guess) uses a similar technique to tag code/data that's only used during initialization. It gets put in a dedicated section of the kernel (or module thereof) that's discarded once it's up and running so it can reclaim some space. (See include/linux/init.h in the kernel source tree.)

</comment><comment><USER14> I learned to program in Ruby and what is this?

<comment><USER15> These are the shoulders of the giants that you stand on.

(or: the fun stuff that you never get to see anymore.)

</comment></comment><comment><USER16> Just a small off-topic notice: He's got the Raymond Chen blog address wrong, it's <http://blogs.msdn.com/b/oldnewthing/>

Check it, it's really enjoyable (even for a rabid Unixoid GPL lover like yours truly).</comment>


Ask HN: How popular are internationalized domain names? - <AUTHOR> For countries without Latin-based scripts, do you type internationalized domain names (IDNs with punycode) in your browsers?  How about countries with accents (e.g., France, Spain)? <comment><USER2> I just counted the domain names starting with the xn-- punnycode in the URL database of URLfilterDB and the punnicode URLs are 0.02% of all domains.</comment>


Ask HN: Habits of Highly Unsuccessful Founders (Anti-Patterns) - <AUTHOR> There's a lot of prescriptive successful founder patterns, but not a lot written about anti-patterns.
While doubling down on your strengths is good, in certain cases, working on addressing severe deficiencies in skills critical to founding a business (getting it to at least "baseline competent") may yield a better overall results for the founder per pound of effort + time.
Please be specific and constructive. The more actionable the anti-pattern "in reverse" is, the better.
I'll start off with some examples:
- When soliciting for feedback, only hearing what you want to hear
- Not knowing how to engage with people to pitch and sell
- Thinking that if you build, they will come
- Worrying about things unlikely to be of real concern at the phase you are in. E.g. worrying about patenting an idea for a marketplace / network-effect startup when you haven't done anything at all to test if it even has legs <comment><USER2> I'd recommend this thread from 9 months ago: _Ask HN: Why did your startup fail and what did you learn?_

[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18011332](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18011332)

</comment><comment><USER3> \- Ignoring the power of advertising \- Not being aware how your client/prospects `see' your business/products \- Lacking appropriate experience, particularly employees

In television programs like "Restaurant Impossible" you have the opportunity to see the same issues being repeated by multiple business owners.

</comment><comment><USER4> Well, from what I've seen some of the following are common patterns too (with almost any failure story):

\- Thinking your idea is some million dollar unique concept that others are desperate to 'steal', and only talking to people if they sign an NDA.

\- Not knowing the audience your projects/products/companies/services are for, and making someone no one actually wants or needs.

\- Copying other companies without having any real way to differentiate your product. This can in theory work if you can do things for super cheap (I think Rocket Internet or someone like that in Germany does it), but most copycats tend to fail.

\- Expecting others to do all the work while being the 'ideas guy'.

\- Relying too much on people who you don't know, who don't live nearby, who aren't being paid and have no loyalty to you.

\- Getting stuck in an endless cycle of feature/scope creep, and not putting out a MVP. This is probably my own biggest issue, for pretty much everything under the sun.

\- Launching at the wrong time, especially if your market has moved on. Actually, these last two points kinda go hand in hand really, you spend so long working on an unproven idea with no hurry to get anything done that by the time it does get released your 'audience' has long since left and moved onto other things, and the rest of the world has left you behind in terms of tech, aesthetics, design, etc.

</comment><comment><USER5> > Thinking that if you build, they will come

I have heard this a ton and have fallen prey to this trap before on multiple occasions. I have a question about this, and maybe people reading this have some insight. :)

I understand that when trying to build some brand new technology with no proven market, it's a wise decision to first determine whether there is potential demand for that technology. What about when building a "clone" of an existing, successful product? What's the process look like there? Is it more marketing and less finding product-market fit?

</comment><comment><USER6> The sad thing about the 4 things you listed is that the person in question is rarely conscious of employing those "anti-patterns". And most of the times convincing them of what they are doing takes a lot of effort.

If I'd had to choose and original sin/anti-pattern I'd say not having a growth mindset and a tolerance for solving the multitude of problems they'll find along the way without succumbing to the emotional component of problems (being able to approach problems in a detached way).

<comment><AUTHOR> > The sad thing about the 4 things you listed is that the person in question > is rarely conscious of employing those "anti-patterns"

This is like with talk therapy. You can't help someone who doesn't want to be helped, whether they're unaware of their problems, or are aware but are in denial.

This list is more for people who _do_ want to help themselves.

</comment></comment><comment><USER7>
      - prioritizing solutions over customer problems

      - "what -> how -> why" instead of "why -> how -> what"

      - not taking risks nor responsibility for failure

      - not taking advice from other people

</comment><comment><USER8> I feel like example list is more so from the perspective of folks who don't like what the founder is doing.

Someone who "only hearing" may have heard someone else, but felt it wasn't correct and moved on.

</comment><comment><USER9> Taking pride in building solutions that are looking for a problems to solve.</comment>


Netflix Is Betting Its Future on Exclusive Programming - <AUTHOR> http://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/20/business/media/netflix-is-betting-its-future-on-exclusive-programming.html?smid=re-share <comment><USER2> When Netflix first started, they were able to buy the streaming rights to old movies and TV shows for cheap, because executives thought they weren't worth anything. Now those contracts are expiring, and the studios want to jack up the rates or start their own service.

Netflix is also getting squeezed by ISPs like Comcast, who want to charge them for the right to deliver video to Comcast's customers who already paid for their bandwidth.

So Netflix' only way to survive is to develop its own content. If it's dependent on other people to provide content, they'll jack up their prices to take Netflix' profit margins.

So now you have 5-10 competing services, and if you aren't paying attention, you don't know what shows are available on what service. Meanwhile, if you go to a file-sharing website, you can get every single show and movie. So Netflix (and its competitors) have less compelling of a value proposition, if you have to pay $10/month to several different services to get all the shows you might want to watch.

<comment><USER3> Speaking of exclusive content, I highly highly recommend Netflix's "Daredevil" (a TV series they developed with Marvel). It's seriously some amazing content.

<comment><USER4> Seconded. The fight choreography and photography are as good or better than John Wick if you're into that sort of thing. That hallway fight scene was amazingly well done. The casting is quite good too. (Although the actor could learn a couple of things from Chris Gorham, who did a really great job of playing a blind guy on Covert Affairs.)

<comment><USER5> Thirded. Another thing that sets it apart from other superhero shows is that how, after a while, the series spends time showing the main villain, who gains a human dimension.

<comment><USER6> Forded? The show is pretty damn good. House of Cards is amazing as well.

</comment></comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER7> "It will be like the Yankees and the Red Sox," Mr. Hastings said. "I predict HBO will do the best creative work of their lives in the next 10 years because they are on war footing. They haven't really had a challenge for a long time, and now they do. It's going to spur us both on to incredible work."

That guy has a ton of class. This war will only benefit all of us entertainment junkies.

<comment><USER8> No doubt, though there's also a fair degree of hubris in that statement. HBO is already going strong from a 15-year streak of unprecedented critical success, having birthed genuine cultural touchstones such as The Sopranos and The Wire.

Netflix is making an incredible effort to catch up: They're giving great creative talent a lot of creative freedom, and they've certainly put out some fine prestige content in their first three years, but even House of Cards isn't really batting at the same level as HBO's landmark achievements.

I think when Hastings says "I predict HBO will do the best creative work of their lives in the next 10 years," there's a tiny bit of projection there – he knows HBO will have to _continue_ to put out landmark content because sooner or later, Netflix will indeed have its own, bona-fide Sopranos.

As a fan of long-form episodic cinema, no other rivalry could make me more excited.

</comment></comment><comment><USER9> I guess there is another, very big reason: The Non-US markets.

The US is surely important, but Netflix has launched in Europe and faces a huge obstacle that very few US Americans know about - rights licensing is far worse.

Selling content overseas is a huge business, which means a giant time delay until something makes it to, say, Germany (even if not dubbed). Which worked in the past, but the Internet is forcing real time usage, see the piracy numbers worldwide for something like Game of Thrones (HBO, I know). There is practically no legal way to easily consume something like GoT the same time as it is aired in the US.

Not so for Netflix' own content.

House of Cards, Daredevil - all already available globally.

The world is a big place and Netflix is going after it, the US is just one market.

That HBO/Apple TV deal better be global soon.

<comment><USER10> Netflix is making the same mistakes. They sold the rights of "House of Cards" to Sky Television preventing anyone from watching season 3 in most of Europe.

<comment><USER11> Does House of Cards licensing have anything to do with the fact that it was originally a UK show?

<comment><USER12> Probably not. BBC made the UK series, GP says Sky licenced the US series.

</comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER13> Netflix is well on its way to becoming the first of the 21st century "networks". When you think about a television network it plays re-runs of old shows, re-runs of old movies, movies that have come out of theatres, and original series.

The only difference between Netflix and say "TNT" or "FOX" (other than they don't have news shows) is that the content is available on your schedule, not the networks, and they don't put advertisements in their content they just charge you a monthly fee to have access to it.

They have, nominally 60M subscribers[1] world wide, and 40M in the US[2], out of a total of 113M TV households [3]. If half of their subscribers watched the series Daredevil (which I recommend) that would be the equivalent of Netflix getting a 20 rating. [4] That would be equivalent to a Seinfeld [ibid] which was NBC's hottest show for a very long time.

So what that means is that networks need to either adapt to this new model or die. And the more that die, the more content there is for folks like NetFlix.

Oddly enough, this sort of makes Roku the new Comcast :-)

[1] [http://www.forbes.com/sites/laurengensler/2015/01/20/netflix...](http://www.forbes.com/sites/laurengensler/2015/01/20/netflix- soars-on-subscriber-growth/)

[2] [http://variety.com/2015/digital/news/netflix- tops-57-million...](http://variety.com/2015/digital/news/netflix- tops-57-million-subscribers-in-q4-as-u-s-growth-slows-1201409712/)

[3] [http://www.tvb.org/media/file/Nielsen_2014-2015_DMA_Ranks.pd...](http://www.tvb.org/media/file/Nielsen_2014-2015_DMA_Ranks.pdf)

[4] [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nielsen_ratings#Commercial_rati...](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nielsen_ratings#Commercial_ratings)

<comment><USER14> The only problem is they're in the middle of having one of the better measures to end piracy be thoroughly dismantled. Consumers are not going to pay 10 different streaming services on a contract fee structure.

And it's pretty clear that's not the only problem: once they think they can, we'll be back to product lock in, region lock in, vendor lock in "our new show is perfect to get people to switch to Comcast!"

</comment></comment><comment> tuna-piano Netflix has shown an ability to think of the future and adapt. Congrats to them. They started mailing DVDs, went full force into streaming old TV shows and movies, and now are pivoting again towards exclusive programming.

As a side note, it wouldn't surprise me if they are deeply concerned about an Apple TV service with a similar interface as Netflix, but more / better content. When I hear Tim Cook talk about his ideas for TV, it seems like he hates the current way TV works. Most programs aren't live, but are still shown the way they were 50 years ago for no particular reason.

<comment><USER15> Apple TV has a very very long way to go.

Pro: i'm watching twitch stream of pro-dota on my phone, there's a new menu I've not noticed before. Press it, click apple TV, it's now streaming seamlessly onto my TV. Similarly for any tv shows on my laptop - but only if they're .mp4 (ugh).

Cons: Awful menu and navigation. Comparatively expensive (assuming you're watching films - after 2 films you could pay for a streaming service). Search is bad and slow. Recommendations are all the same despite allegedly being split by genre. etc etc. It's barely better than any other smart TV to be honest.

I think Apple TV could work, but I don't think it's even close to being there yet

</comment></comment><comment><USER16> Seems like they're following in the footsteps of HBO, going from a distribution channel rebroadcasting others' content to being known primarily for their high quality original content.

I like where this is headed. The competition will be a boon for content consumers.

<comment><USER17> The problem is that I pay for netflix precisely because they rebroadcast others' content.

<comment><USER18> Yes, but eventually they'll make enough of their own content you wont care if they carry anyone else's stuff.

<comment><USER19> You'll care when you have to subscribe to 8 different $9.99 services to get all of the content you want.

<comment><USER20> I'm hoping Netflix gains enough market share with their original programming that it becomes suicide for other producers not to list their shows on Netflix too.

Even if to pay for this Netflix has a premium version... ($20 per month for example)

</comment></comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER21> Content is king and Gates was right: [http://www.craigbailey.net/content-is- king-by-bill-gates/](http://www.craigbailey.net/content-is-king-by-bill- gates/)

 _Content is where I expect much of the real money will be made on the Internet, just as it was in broadcasting.

The television revolution that began half a century ago spawned a number of industries, including the manufacturing of TV sets, but the long-term winners were those who used the medium to deliver information and entertainment.

When it comes to an interactive network such as the Internet, the definition of "content" becomes very wide. For example, computer software is a form of content-an extremely important one, and the one that for Microsoft will remain by far the most important.

But the broad opportunities for most companies involve supplying information or entertainment. No company is too small to participate._

</comment><comment><USER22> Heh - being Hacker News, I thought this was going to about some new methodology like Extreme Programming!

<comment><USER23> Haha - I too immediately thought there was some new programming paradigm I had missed out on!

</comment></comment><comment><USER24> I'm wondering why Netflix don't make a few topical shows, which could potentially increase the loyalty of their subscribers and would be very inexpensive to produce. Having their own shows similar to the daily and weekly shows on Comedy Central and HBO would add a new facet to their offerings.

<comment><USER25> They have indeed recently commissioned a "topical talk show" ([http://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/20/business/media/chelsea- han...](http://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/20/business/media/chelsea-handler-to- host-late-night-style-talk-show-on-netflix.html)).

</comment></comment><comment><USER26> About 2-3 years ago, I said NF couldn't do what it is doing forever, as there is nothing preventing e.g. Disney or Time Warner from selling their content direct to consumers.

Obviously the netflix executives were ahead of me on this one.

<comment><USER27> It takes much longer to steer a huge ship, or however that saying goes.

<comment><USER26> That's kind of what I'm saying; it's clear now that when I made that prediction, NF had already started going after original content.

<comment><USER27> Idealistically and technologically there was nothing preventing them from streaming directly, but realistically they had decades of contracts to re- engineer to do so, not to mention the fact that they are huge companies with a fundamental stability that prevents them from innovating.

From somewhere else (via NFLX Wikipedia):

 _In a 2010 New York Times interview, Time Warner CEO Jeffrey Bewkes downplayed Netflix as a threat to more traditional media companies. Bewkes told the newspaper, "It's a little bit like, is the Albanian army going to take over the world? I don't think so." At the same time, he recognized that the company's DVD service may have contributed to a decline in DVD sales, and regarding the industry's willingness to make special deals with Netflix in the future, he added "this has been an era of experimentation, and I think it's coming to a close."_

<comment><USER26> Oh, I see what you're saying now; the "large ships" are the current content holders.

I agree, and this is why netflix has time to build up a library of original content. It's bootstrapping its success off the backs of its future competitors. I will predict though, that when Disney's current contract with netflix expires (2020ish IIRC), they won't renew.

</comment></comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER28> I don't watch any broadcast or cable TV anymore. Netflix and Amazon Prime video are it (and Prime only because it's bundled; it doesn't really offer anything I'd pay for on its own). This seems like a no brainer to me.

</comment><comment><USER29> Netflix could pivot slightly and offer white-label hosting of content for each content provider. Spinning up a hosting service to compete with Netflix can't be cheap.

<comment><USER30> I believe mlb does exactly that

</comment></comment><comment><USER31> > "They will take HBO linear and call it HBO Linear," he said. "That is HBO if > you really want to watch it on somebody else's schedule."

Am I the only one who likes shows being made available once a week, rather than all at once?

<comment><USER32> Is that because you don't trust yourself not to watch it all in a binge situation? The shows on netflix could easily be watched one episode at a time on a regular schedule if that's what you prefer. You get both options (and hundreds of other scenarios) instead of just the one decided by someone else (or else having to record it on a DVR to make your own schedule).

<comment><USER31> It's nice to know that the other people watching a show are also at the same point as you are (or relatively close), allowing you to speculate on what might happen next in the time between episodes.

I also like looking forward to the next episode, which doesn't really happen when you can watch that next episode immediately (and self imposed waiting doesn't feel the same).

<comment><USER32> I agree that one thing that's lost is the ability to discuss episodes with people as a show progresses. Since you never know what episode a person is on you can't really risk discussing things until you're sure the person has caught up. With weekly shows like Game of Thrones for instance, you can feel pretty comfortable discussing an episode amongst other fans. Not sure if that's really something I'll miss when it's gone, but it's definitely a big change with Netflix that ultimately started as a smaller disruption with DVR devices...

I suppose personally my feelings on the matter is even though I might lose the few advantages that you mentioned, the disadvantages far outweigh it and I won't miss the airing of shows like Breaking Bad or Suits that took one season and split them in half with gigantic gaps in between (months or even years), to the point where you can't even remember where the show was going by the time it returns. I like the freedom to watch at whatever schedule I prefer, without any kind of arbitrary limitations that may or may not suit my lifestyle at the time, and the confidence to know I'm going to be able to see a story through from start to finish once devote time to it...

<comment><USER33> Well there is a product/service in there. Discussion channels tied in with your Netflix Id so that you you can only discuss topics with people on the same schedule. You could also join a group which had the programming pre- determined, and drip fed the shows to you on a specific schedule, like every Sunday night. You get the benefits of a scheduled delivery of content and associated social benefits, but you also get to join a schedule which suits your times.

<comment><USER34> Reddit works well for that. The House Of Cards subreddit for example features a thread per episode, which has pretty much replaced my per-episode watercooler talk.

</comment></comment></comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER35> TL;DR Not a new paradigm where you define the functionality you don't want and a compiler gives you the "program" you do want :(

</comment><comment><USER36> I wish Netflix would provide _their own_ content DRM-free. But they don't, so all their claims that it wasn't their interest to push DRM into HTML are not true.

</comment><comment><USER37> They will never call it HBO Linear because they aren't bad enough at branding. That's almost as bad as Qwickster.

</comment><comment><USER38> And here I thought I was going to learn something about their software engineering.

</comment><comment><USER39> Whither the "long tail"?

</comment><comment><USER40> Exclusive is some new fresh post-Reactive bullshit?)</comment>


Top 100 Best Places to Live in America - <AUTHOR> http://www.areavibes.com/best-places/america/

<comment><USER2> Would be better if they actually aggregated the data into metro regions. There was exactly one town I heard of, on that list. Everything else was essentially suburban neighborhoods.

Apparently they like really like Kansas City and Indianapolis.</comment>


Ask HN: What's the best mail hoster for a startup? - <AUTHOR> Currently we use gsuit, but there is too much in there we don't use and > 5€ per user is too much. We need a stable hoster, privacy and no gimmicks.. any suggestions ? <comment><USER2> Even 10 euro a month per user is nothing - their salary + insurance + taxes is probably 3-4 thousand euro at least, these 10 euro are a statistical error.

We use Office365, because we need Office anyway. We initially used a hosting provider email server, but it's not trivial to get the email DNS configuration right, and you risk going in spam. Even after we got our configuration right, we still had occasional "spam" issues.

<comment><USER3> Set the spf fields in DNS and you should be fine. It's not really that hard unless you do send out spammy mails.

</comment></comment><comment><USER4> How about Mailbox? [https://mailbox.org/en/](https://mailbox.org/en/) (they support calendar sync)

or Zoho [https://www.zoho.com/](https://www.zoho.com/)

</comment><comment><USER5> It's hard to run a service below 3 Euro/month with good (human) support, those who do often charge annual. We use [https://runbox.com/price- plans/](https://runbox.com/price-plans/) and are very happy. There was a discount for pre-paying two years and in our monthly cost spreadsheet with 30+ SaaS it's the service costing us the least.

There's several previous 'alternatives to gmail' discussions, e.g. [https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17448108](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17448108)

</comment><comment><USER6> If your own time is worth very little I suggest self hosting. It takes a few hours to setup.

<comment><USER7> Plus a few hours every week to chase down reports of emails not being delivered, spam, etc.

As someone with many servers and a previous career managing an email service for a university, I would never run my email through anything except G Suite or Office 365. The benefits of those services being "too big to block" is immeasurable.

</comment></comment><comment><USER8> What's nice about GSuite is contacts and calendar syncing on Android and iPhone.

Do realize that Android only supports GSuite. In other words, by default it doesn't support CalDAV and CardDAV. There are apps for that, but I found those to be a hassle.

</comment><comment><USER9> I recently setup tutanota for my startups email needs. It's terrific. No frills, just works, secure and encrypted email. Can't be happier.

Edit: obligatory link tutanota.com

<comment><USER10> Plus one for tutanota. I've been using tutanota for years and love it. And the recent calendar feature is great.

</comment></comment><comment><USER11> Pretty happy so far with Migadu.

<comment><USER12> Agreed! Migadu is great considering they essentially give you a single mailbox for free and the upgrades aren't per user. The different tiers just have sending limits with the top tier being _basically_ unlimited (at their discretion - they're just worried about spam, rightfully so).

[https://www.migadu.com/en/pricing.html](https://www.migadu.com/en/pricing.html)</comment></comment>


I Scraped Millions of Venmo Payments. Your Data Is at Risk - <AUTHOR> https://www.wired.com/story/i-scraped-millions-of-venmo-payments-your-data-is-at-risk/ <comment><USER2> Venmo's whole thing has always been broadcasting transaction details. I have no idea why anyone would want that, and in fact I seriously doubt anyone does want that. Venmo is successful because it makes digital peer-to-peer payments easy, and they are likely mistaking that selling point as evidence that people actually want the "social" aspect of it. I suspect they'd have a lot more users if they removed the public audit trail.</comment>


Show HN: I made a lightweight SoundCloud player - <AUTHOR> http://tinycloud.co

<comment><USER2> This is great. It runs noticeably smoother than the SC main website. I could see myself using this when I'm listening to SC in the background while I am working.

Would be great if there was a basic way to see what percentage or time your in of the track, like (15:22 / 82:44), and it would be great if it could login to SC so that I could see my own feed of new content coming in.

Having said that, don't add too many features, because where this shines is not having so much bloat. I love SC and all their features, but when I am just working and listening to music I don't need fancy album art, comments, notifications or anything.

Really cool idea.

<comment><AUTHOR> Thanks! I am thinking of working on putting a scrubber on the site. So you would like to log in and see your feed vs your favorites? Appreciate the feedback!

<comment><USER2> Yeah, or even before scrubber, just a way to tell how far through the track you are. But scrubber would work well too.

Logging in would be cool, or someway to see what would be in my feed. Often I start my day just playing my feed on SC to see all the new stuff coming in.

Likes are perfect, exactly as you have them.

<comment><AUTHOR> I added the timer to the nav bar. I got what you are saying about the feed and I think that's totally doable. Just thinking about the best way to present that option design wise. Thanks again!</comment></comment></comment></comment>


Wells Fargo CEO Sloan Must Go, Senator Warren Tells Fed Chairman - <AUTHOR> https://www.thestreet.com/markets/wells-fargo-ceo-must-go-senator-warren-tells-fed-chairman-powell-14749692 <comment><AUTHOR> I have mixed feelings about Warren's policies, but there seem to be so few U.S. politicians who are actually willing to take on the financial industry.</comment>


VMware is bringing augmented reality into the data center - <AUTHOR> http://declassifiled.com/vmware-is-bringing-augumented-reality-into-the-data-center/

<comment><USER2> Blog post about interesting patent doesn't mention patent number. _sighs_

<comment><USER3> Probably 20150109334 [http://www.google.com/patents/US20150109334](http://www.google.com/patents/US20150109334)</comment></comment>


Be honest: Do you ever read EULAs?  - <AUTHOR> http://www.thestandard.com/news/2008/06/11/end-user-license-agreements-do-you-know-what-you-are-agreeing

<comment><USER2> No. I figure I can't be responsible for something I didn't read or sign and that probably isn't legally valid anyway, so why waste my time reading?

I hear my cat likes reading them, though. I never accepted the EULA on my Mac... but my cat did. Direct any legal inquiries to her.

<comment><USER3> I agree with what you mean but not what you say. If you sign a real contract without reading it you're still responsible. The only thing is that EULAs are pretty far from a real contract. And I doubt the cat argument would stand in court.

<comment><USER2> > _And I doubt the cat argument would stand in court._

I wouldn't argue it that way in court. I would say "I popped in the install CD, I went away, I came back and the software was working. If there was an EULA, I never agreed to it." Knowing how buggy software in general is, it would be easy to argue that a bug prevented the EULA from showing. The key is proving that I would have returned the software if I saw an EULA.

Not that anything like this would ever see the inside of a courtroom. EULAs only exist so that the corporate lawyers have something to entertain themselves during the litigation off season (if there is such a thing).

<comment><USER3> I don't think dishonesty is a responsible strategy. Better dismiss the legitimacy of the EULA than implicitly acknowledge its validity with your false assertions (if you argue that you didn't read it then you're saying it's relevant).

</comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER4> No. Once you read one, there is no need to read another, they are basically the same thing, only with slight alterations.

<comment><USER3> Indeed, most of them simply say you have no rights whatsoever. In 30 sections.

</comment></comment><comment><USER5> I have never once read a EULA - I don't really see how you could make it all the way through one and stay away.

How important is the EULA/Terms and conditions that you always have to click OK to when you register to use a new web app? If I was to release an app without legally prepared terms and conditions would that be a stupid thing to do?

</comment><comment><USER6> Why bother: if you don't agree, you can't use the software. Kinda pointless if you just bought it. Now if you could read them before hand to see if you actually agree, I'm sure you wouldn't buy it/use it.

</comment><comment><USER7> I read the GPL (v.2) once or twice and that covers enough software that I can skip (re)reading the license on most free stuff. That's the beauty of standard terms for the end user at least.

<comment><USER2> The GPL isn't a EULA. It is a document that gives you additional rights if you happen to be a redistributor.

<comment><USER7> True enough, though it seems a fair amount of software will pop it up in the installation process and make you agree to it as if it were. This could be due to using plug and play installation software, though.

Maybe I should revise my original post to: go with GPL'd or similar software and an EULA isn't even an issue.

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER8> Always. It usually just takes a few seconds because I just skim over anything that I recognize as boilerplate. But every once in a while I reject one because it's downright scary. Worst offender I've ever seen is the Punkbuster EULA:

[http://manual.americasarmy.com/index.php/I_agreed_to_the_Pun...](http://manual.americasarmy.com/index.php/I_agreed_to_the_Punkbuster_EULA_when_I_installed_America%27s_Army_but_didn%27t_read_it._Can_I_read_it_now%3F)

<comment><USER9> >Licensee also acknowledges and agrees that PunkBuster software is self- updating, which means that future updates will, from time to time and without any notice, automatically be downloaded and installed as a normal and expected function of PunkBuster software. Licensee further acknowledges and accepts that PunkBuster software may be considered invasive. Licensee understands that PunkBuster software inspects and reports information about the computer on which it is installed to other connected computers and Licensee agrees to allow PunkBuster software to inspect and report such information about the computer on which Licensee installs PunkBuster software.

</comment></comment><comment><USER10> Never. It's one of only two consistent policies: read every one carefully, or read none.

Reading every one carefully would be a tremendous waste of time. Many, perhaps all, contain clauses that I am legally unqualified to evaluate, and are probably unenforceable. (And no, I'm not hiring a lawyer to interpret each one for me, at a greater cost that that of the software itself.)

At least with a read-none policy, I will always be able to report, if it becomes a question in the future, that I'm sure I didn't read and agree to any one in particular.</comment>


How to Overcome Cognitive Bias with a Falsification Mindset - <AUTHOR> https://betterhumans.coach.me/the-falsification-mindset-how-to-change-your-own-mind-db4a0a9ae7f2 <comment><USER2> Check falsifiability, also follow Occam's razor. These are core ideas behind forming scientific theories too.

</comment><comment><USER3> This was a great article about a concept that every self-professed intellectual (or wannabe) should be taught, surprised it got so little traction here</comment>


Pigeon – Crowdsourced transit app for New Yorkers - <AUTHOR> https://pigeon.area120.com/ <comment><USER2> I saw a subway ad for this a few weeks ago and immediately downloaded it. During setup, it asked for my home and work addresses so it could save my commute.

I trusted the app when it said, "We won't share this info with anyone."

Here's a screenshot: [https://mobile.twitter.com/nicholasbs/status/113532302185253...](https://mobile.twitter.com/nicholasbs/status/1135323021852532737)

After setting it up I wondered how a free app with no ads or in-app purchases and which didn't share your data could possibly make money, so I googled it.

I discovered that Pigeon is made by Google. I went back to the App Store listing to see how I could have possibly missed this and found there is _no_ mention of Google anywhere in the App Store or the app itself unless you click through to the Privacy Policy.

There are, however, plenty of reviews from people confused why an app like this would only support sign in with Google.

<comment><USER3> Not only that, but the site's FAQs spin to sound like an authentic NYC startup. See the question and answer about why iOS and not Android for now.

<comment><USER3> EDIT/UPDATE:

FAQ Questions (now?) mention Google, but imply it's a local team in "Google's workshop":

 _Q. How started?_

 _A. After years of living in New York City and commuting on the subway, the Pigeon team knows first-hand that public transit can be frustratingly unpredictable. So when we started this project, we decided to create a product that lets subway riders help each other avoid delays, crowds, and incidents that make can make commuting so stressful._

 _Q.Who created this?_

 _A. Pigeon is lovingly designed and built by a small team based in New York as a part of Area 120 - Google 's workshop for experimental products. For the Pigeon team, being a part of Area 120 means we have the opportunity to create a new, experimental product that we can continuously test and improve to make sure it's something that our users love. For our users, it means you get a chance to experience our app in its early stages and help shape the product as it grows._

 _Q. Only for New York?_

 _A. Pigeon's dream is to make it easier to get around all cities. But, since Pigeon is new and the team still has a lot to learn, we decided to start in our own backyard of NYC: home to the largest subway system in the US. We think starting here will help us figure out what works and what doesn't as we move toward this goal._

 _Q. Android?_

 _A. We're currently focused on learning and testing with iOS users in NYC, but we hope to bring Pigeon to Android soon. Please sign up for our Android waitlist to be notified when it becomes available._

The Transit Heroes FAQ may be clearer:

 _Q. What would I get?_

 _A. An opportunity to meet up with the Pigeon team and other Transit Heroes at the Google NYC campus._

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER4> This looks a lot like Transit (transitapp.com), which also has a similar crowdsourcing feature. And I believe other apps like Citymapper and Moovit also rely on users' reports. Does this app have anything new in particular?

<comment><USER5> Area 120 is Google's in-house incubator. This seems like a veiled attempt to swallow competitor functionality into Google Maps...

<comment><USER6> I never quite understood this approach, since making applications more bloated with everything under the sun is a great way to encourage lightweight competitors to enter the space. See: word processors, Adobe Creative Suite, etc

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER7> Ah yes, not to be confused with the other purple themed app that sounds the same: [https://pidgin.im](https://pidgin.im)

<comment><USER8> It's alright, most people won't confuse the two because they've never heard of Pidgin. All their friends are on facebookwhatsappinstagram.

</comment></comment><comment><USER9> Based on their "crazy guy in first car" example, I expect there'll be more than the occasional example of racism, ableism, etc.

<comment><USER10> Not sure what to do about that, but you're absolutely right. I see this a lot on NextDoor, "suspicious people" posts when really it's just some person of color who lives in the neighborhood or is walking their dog or something.

<comment><USER11> The sole purpose of Nextdoor is facilitating moral panic.

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER12> As a New Yorker...

...I don't understand the value crowdsourcing provides, for transit.

Official real-time subway data is already provided by the MTA in all sorts of forms (apps, API's, etc.). I don't know what there is to crowdsource -- you can tell just by analyzing the data directly whether trains are stuck or not, and for how long. And if you're stuck in a train car, it's very rare you have any knowledge of how long the delay is going to be anyways -- conductor announcements are almost always just "we hope to be moving soon". Same if you're on the platform -- just a generic "trains are running delayed". And for big delays (a train being shut down between stations for half an hour, etc.) the MTA posts real-time notices explaining. So what's to crowdsource?

(Not to mention that if your train is stuck between stations and you _wanted_ to tell the app why, tough luck -- there's no cell or Wifi service between stations anyways when you're underground, so you can't.)

There's always room to improve on transit apps, and crowdsourcing is hugely valuable for car traffic, but crowdsourcing+transit makes no sense to me, at least in NYC.

<comment><USER13> The coverage and accuracy of the information provided by the MTA APIs is poor, in my experience. Additionally it doesn't take into account crowding or any of the other quality-of-trip components (i.e. closed elevators, altered service, etc.).

<comment><USER12> What specifically is poor?

I've never used the API's -- only official MTA apps which presumably draw on the same data source -- but it covers all trains, and the train times have always seemed entirely accurate to me, if interpreted as "this is the minimum time the next train could take to get to you, from its current distance".

The apps certainly do take account of altered service (same as Google Maps does). Elevator closings are reported too, no crowdsourcing needed [1]. These are all official, non-crowdsourced sources.

Crowding is really the only interesting thing in my opinion -- but although I don't know of any apps that do it, it seems relatively easy to deduce from train history and known average hourly station usage per day, which is predictable enough to give decent results. But I'm not sure how often this provides value though -- how often is a station/train so crowded that you'll choose a viable alternate means of transportation in advance? Not often, in my experience, which is probably why apps don't offer it.

[1] [https://advisory.mtanyct.info/EEoutage/EEOutageReport.aspx?S...](https://advisory.mtanyct.info/EEoutage/EEOutageReport.aspx?StationID=All)

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER14> I saw a bunch of avatars over the map and was worried it was sharing my location with other users. Got a google wave-esque chill. Couldn't find anything in settings to disable. Uninstalled.</comment>


Top 20 Android Apps in US according to new Nielsen Report - <AUTHOR> http://www.i4u.com/47714/top-20-android-apps-us-according-new-nielsen-report

<comment><USER2> Are any of those paid apps?

<comment><USER3> nope

<comment><USER4> Quickoffice Pro isn't free.</comment></comment></comment>


Ask HN: Is this project interesting? - <AUTHOR>

Hey guys,
We'd like have your feedback on a new web app.
We (my partner and I) run a small but successful Ruby on Rails and web marketing shop in the UK. We focus on launching MVPs for startups, quickly, well-made and ready for business in 6 weeks.
Now we've got an idea for a project of our own but we'd like to know what you think first. The idea comes from a problem we're having. Basically we need a solution to easily format our business documents and none of the online editors (Google Docs, Backpack…) really allows us to do that.
The project is called Dododocs and is destined to be an online edition and formatting tool so people can upload their company header and footer, and then simply type in their text. Professional-looking documents without any hassle.
For the formatting, we'll have some templates available to use, but you'll be able to customise them or upload your own (HTML/CSS). Then you type the text in a blank editing area, using Markdown and Textile.
Once finished, you can export in HTML and PDF.
So the aim is to have something really simple first. The next features will certainly be a link with Basecamp, Backpack and Google Docs, and maybe a nice and slick interface to browse the document pages.
We're going to start working on this project in a week and try to have a first working beta version by the end of July.
Is it an application you guys would use? Do you have any input on this (brief) description of the project?
If you would consider using it and would like a voucher for 1 month's free subscription, please enter your email address there: http://www.dododocs.com/
Thanks a lot!
Nic <comment><USER2> How often do people need to write ad-hoc professional documents, specially online?

You don't create fancy professional documents without printing them... and if you need a printer, then you're probably at the office, so you probably already have all your regular tools.

If you are going to do anything on a regular basis (quote, contract, sales letter, etc) you already have a template of it in Word or whatever... and it's private.

You explained the features pretty well, but what's in it for me?

<comment><AUTHOR> As a business we regularly send documents to our client. Could be a report, or a letter, or anything else that requires a nice and polished document.

The problem with Word or Libre Office is that once you've fight several long ours to make you layout or template perfect, there is always something not quite right. And when you're writing, you have to select the text where you want to change the styles on.

Using Markdown or Textile (with an already made CSS) makes it really easy to just write, hit a button and BANG, document is there, ready to be emailed.

Plus I see this process (easy Markdown editor) to be very usable with tablet devices.

But maybe we are wrong, this is why we were asking here ;)

Did I answer your questions?

</comment></comment><comment><USER3> _So the aim is to have something really simple first. The next features will certainly be a link with Basecamp, Backpack and Google Docs,_

Yep, I could see this being pretty useful if it was easy to load documents to and from Google Docs. Part of the reason I say that, is simply because I use GDocs as a sort of lightweight DMS for my startup related docs in general... but also because the Fedex Online Printing service has a built in hook to GDocs, to make it easy to retrieve docs for printing.

Yeah, yeah, I know... "paperless office" and all that. But there are still times when you want hard-copy, and being able to pull stuff over from GDocs to Fedex, submit the print job, and then pick it up at the Fedex store, is pretty handy on those occasions.

<comment><AUTHOR> The hook on both side of Gdocs is definitively something we would consider. But I don't know yet how Gdocs copes with header and footers. We'll discover that soon I suspect ;)</comment></comment>