Cryptography with Cellular Automata (1985) [pdf] - <AUTHOR> http://www.stephenwolfram.com/publications/academic/cryptography-cellular-automata.pdf <comment><USER2> Anyone wanting to tinker with Cellular Automata may be interested in Golly [1], an open source cellular automata simulator which allows you to play with different neighborhoods and rules and see the results.

[1]. [http://golly.sourceforge.net/](http://golly.sourceforge.net/)

</comment><comment><USER3> Can anybody explain concepts of Cellular Automata?

I am familiar with DFA, NFAs. But I always had problem understanding Cellular Automata and it's usage.

<comment><USER4> Each cell can be thought of as its own finite automaton in the DFA/NFA sense. A cell has some properties: current state, set of states, set of transition functions, input alphabet. Like how a typical FA receives inputs from _somewhere_ (for example, with regular expressions, an input string), your cells in a CA will also receive input: the states of the (usually immediate) neighbors.

Consider a simple 1d cellular automata. It's either _dead_ (0) or _alive_ (1). It has a simple set of rules:

If both neighbors are _dead_ , it will become _dead_.

If both neighbors are _alive_ and it is _dead_ , it will become _alive_.

If both neighbors are _alive_ and it is _alive_ , it will become _dead_.

If one neighbor is _alive_ and the other _dead_ , its state is unchanged.

So there are 2 states ( _dead_ /0, _alive_ /1), and 2 sources of input which can be put into a 2-tuple in _{0,1}x{0,1}_ , becoming a single input.

Putting this into a typical tabular format since diagrams are hard in ascii:

           | dead | alive |
      </comment></comment><comment></comment><comment></comment><comment>===
      (0,0)| dead | dead  |
      (0,1)| dead | alive |
      (1,0)| dead | alive |
      (1,1)| alive| dead  |

So at the basic level (you can add more complexity) a cellular automata is a collection of finite automata operating on the same rules and transitioning simultaneously, but using each other's states as their inputs.

The Game of Life rules are a roughly the same but extends the automata to 2d so that each has 8 neighbors, resulting in an input being an 8-tuple. Becoming alive, staying alive, and dying change in the number of neighbors required for each.

<comment><USER5> Great explanation and examples! But to be pedantic, a cell only has one property: its current state. The set of states, transition rules, etc are properties of the rule itself.

The point you made about transitioning simultaneously is very important: "So at the basic level (you can add more complexity) a cellular automata is a collection of finite automata operating on the same rules and _transitioning simultaneously_ , but using each other's states as their inputs."

That means you can't serially apply the rule to the cells "in place" \-- each cell needs to know the value of its neighbors at the same point in time, so if you serially scan top/bottom left/right over the cells, and change each of their values according to the values of their adjacent cells in memory at the time, the inputs to the rule will be incorrect, straddling values from the previous time step (below and to the right) and the current time step (above and to the left). So you have to double buffer the cells, and read ALL the rule inputs of each cell from the previous time step buffer, then write them into the next time step buffer.

If you implement in-place Life without double buffering, it will look and behave kind of like Life, but strangely mutated, and none of the gliders or other patterns will work properly, because the rule inputs are skewed in time.

The Moveable Feast Machine I described in another posting is not technically a cellular automata, because it's asynchronous, and relaxes the requirement that all cells transition simultaneously, and it only requires that no two overlapping neighborhoods may be computed at the same time.

So with MFMs, double buffering is not necessary, and you don't have to pay for synchronization (which is extremely expensive) if you don't need it (or you can just pay for as much as you need, a la carte). The point of Moveable Feast is robust computing on massively parallel unreliable hardware, which is practically impossible with Cellular Automata's strict synchronization requirements.

There are different ways of classifying Cellular Automata rules, and defining one kind in terms of another kind.

For example, Life and Anneal (a "twisted majority rule") are both "Counting Rules" because they can be reduced to simply counting the number of neighbors, then using a look-up table or logic to determine the next state based purely on the sum of the number of neighbors (which may or may not include the center cell). Not all CA rules are counting rules, though.

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life- like_cellular_automaton](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life- like_cellular_automaton)

You can enumerate all possible rules (for a given set of inputs or "neighborhood") and refer to them by their rule number, an index into all possible rules of that type (the value of the lookup table as a binary number). That's what Wolfram means when he refers to "Rule 30", which is a particularly interesting two-dimensional "elementary cellular automaton". Golly has some formats for compactly enumerating and specifying rules.

[http://mathworld.wolfram.com/Rule30.html](http://mathworld.wolfram.com/Rule30.html)

[https://imgur.com/a/lKAbP](https://imgur.com/a/lKAbP)

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elementary_cellular_automaton](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elementary_cellular_automaton)

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golly_(program)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golly_\(program\))

[https://github.com/gollygang/ruletablerepository/wiki/TheRul...](https://github.com/gollygang/ruletablerepository/wiki/TheRules)

Each rule is defined in terms of a certain "neighborhood" of inputs.

A "neighborhood" is the set of adjacent cells that the rule may depend on. It's like a "kernel" from signal processing.

Classic 2D neighborhoods include the 9-neighbor (including center) 8-connected Moore Neighborhood (NW N NE W C E SW S E), used by Life for example:

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore_neighborhood](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore_neighborhood)

The 5-neighbor 4-connected von Neumann neighborhood (N W C E S), used by John von Neumann's 29 state cellular automata rule for example:

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Von_Neumann_neighborhood](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Von_Neumann_neighborhood)

The 4-neighbor rotationally symmetrical Margolus Neighborhood (C OPP CW CCW), use by billiard ball and reversible rules for example:

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Block_cellular_automaton](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Block_cellular_automaton)

Rules may also depend on additional inputs like the temporal phase (alternating 0/1 over two steps for two-phase rules, repeating 00/01/10/11 over four steps for four phase rules, etc), the spatial phase (low bit(s) of the x and y cell coordinates), and even corresponding cells from other rules run in parallel or video input.

For example, you can define the Margolus neighborhood in terms of the Moore neighborhood by using the temporal, horizontal and vertical phase to determine which cell is "opposite", "clockwise" or "counter clockwise". You use the time phase to alternate between two overlapping checkerboards of 2x2 cell blocks. Within each checkerboard you use the horizontal and vertical phase to determine whether to look left, right, up or down or diagonally to get the clockwise, counter clockwise or opposite cell in the 2x2 block.

[https://github.com/SimHacker/CAM6/blob/master/javascript/CAM...](https://github.com/SimHacker/CAM6/blob/master/javascript/CAM6.js#L4334)

</comment></comment><comment><USER5> If you like Wolfram's state transition diagrams in figure 2, you'll love Andrew Wuensche and Mike Lesser published a gorgeous coffee table book entitled "The Global Dynamics of Cellular Automata".

I wrote some stuff in an earlier discussion about how the state transition diagrams in that book illustrate "Garden of Eden" configurations and "Basins of Attraction", to which I'll link and repeat here:

[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14468707](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14468707)

There's a thing called a "Garden of Eden" configuration that has no predecessors, which is impossible to get to from any other possible state.

For a rule like Life, there are many possible configurations that must have been created by God or somebody with a bitmap editor (or somebody who thinks he's God and uses Mathematica as a bitmap editor, like Stephen Wolfram ;), because it would have been impossible for the Life rule to evolve into those states. For example, with the "Life" rule, no possible configuration of cells could ever evolve into all cells with the value "1".

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Garden_of_Eden_(cellular_autom...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Garden_of_Eden_\(cellular_automaton\))

For a rule that simply sets the cell value to zero, all configurations other than pure zeros are garden of eden states, and they all lead directly into a one step attractor of all zeros which always evolves back into itself, all zeros again and again (the shortest possible attractor loop that leads directly to itself).

There is a way of graphically visualizing that global rule state space, which gives insight into the behavior of the rule and the texture and complexity of its state space!

Andrew Wuensche and Mike Lesser published a gorgeous coffee table book entitled "The Global Dynamics of Cellular Automata" that plots out the possible "Garden of Eden" states and the "Basins of Attraction" they lead into of many different one-dimensional cellular automata like rule 30.

[http://uncomp.uwe.ac.uk/wuensche/gdca.html](http://uncomp.uwe.ac.uk/wuensche/gdca.html)

The beautiful color plates begin on page 79 in the free pdf file:

[http://uncomp.uwe.ac.uk/wuensche/downloads/papers/global_dyn...](http://uncomp.uwe.ac.uk/wuensche/downloads/papers/global_dynamics_of_CA.pdf)

I've uploaded the money shots to imgur:

[http://imgur.com/gallery/s3dhz](http://imgur.com/gallery/s3dhz)

Those are not pictures of 1-d cellular automata rule cell states on a grid themselves, but they are actually graphs of the abstract global state space, showing merging and looping trajectories (but not branching since the rules are deterministic -- time flows from the garden of eden leaf tips around the perimeter into (then around) the basin of attractor loops in the center, merging like springs (GOE) into tributaries into rivers into the ocean (BOA)).

The rest of the book is an atlas of all possible 1-d rules of a particular rule numbering system (like rule 30, etc), and the last image is the legend.

He developed a technique of computing and plotting the topology network of all possible states a CA can get into -- tips are "garden of eden" states that no other states can lead to, and loops are "basins of attraction".

Here is the illustration of "rule 30" from page 144 (the legend explaining it is the last photo in the above album). [I am presuming it's using the same rule numbering system as Wolfram but I'm not sure -- EDIT: I visually checked the "space time pattern from a singleton seed" thumbnail against the illustration in the article, and yes it matches rule 30!]

[http://imgur.com/a/lKAbP](http://imgur.com/a/lKAbP)

"The Global Dynamics of Cellular Automata introduces a powerful new perspective for the study of discrete dynamical systems. After first looking at the unique trajectory of a system's future, an algoritm is presented that directly computes the multiple merging trajectories of the systems past. A given cellular automaton will "crystallize" state space into a set of basins of attraction that typically have a topology of trees rooted on attractor cycles. Portraits of these objects are made accessible through computer generated graphics. The "Atlas" presents a complete class of such objects, and is inteded , with the accompanying software, as an aid to navigation into the vast reaches of rule behaviour space. The book will appeal to students and researchers interested in cellular automata, complex systems, computational theory, artificial life, neural networks, and aspects of genetics."

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attractor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attractor)

"Basins of attraction in cellular automata", by Andrew Wuensche:

[http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/1099-0526(200007/...](http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/1099-0526\(200007/08\)5:6%3C19::AID- CPLX5%3E3.0.CO;2-J/full)

"To achieve the global perspective. I devised a general method for running CA backwards in time to compute a state's predecessors with a direct reverse algorithm. So the predecessors of predecessors, and so on, can be computed, revealing the complete subtree including the "leaves," states without predecessors, the so-called "garden-of-Eden" states.

Trajectories must lead to attractors in a finite CA, so a basin of attraction is composed of merging trajectories, trees, rooted on the states making up the attractor cycle with a period of one or more. State-space is organized by the "physics" underlying the dynamic behavior into a number of these basins of attraction, making up the basin of attraction field."

If you like the book, you'll love the code!

[http://www.ddlab.com/](http://www.ddlab.com/)

[http://www.ddlab.com/screensave3.png](http://www.ddlab.com/screensave3.png)

[http://uncomp.uwe.ac.uk/wuensche/2006_ddlab_slides1.pdf](http://uncomp.uwe.ac.uk/wuensche/2006_ddlab_slides1.pdf)

[http://uncomp.uwe.ac.uk/wuensche/meta.html](http://uncomp.uwe.ac.uk/wuensche/meta.html)

[http://uncomp.uwe.ac.uk/wuensche/boa_idea.html](http://uncomp.uwe.ac.uk/wuensche/boa_idea.html)

[http://uncomp.uwe.ac.uk/wuensche/downloads/papers/2008_dd_ov...](http://uncomp.uwe.ac.uk/wuensche/downloads/papers/2008_dd_overview_preprint.pdf)

</comment><comment><USER6> The subjective similarity between the randomness generated by CA and the distribution of prime numbers is uncanny. There's got to be some CA that generates them.

<comment><USER7> Prime number calculator in Game of Life: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=68nEX5CEmZE](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=68nEX5CEmZE)

</comment></comment><comment><USER8> Is there a use here for blockchains? Could you link block to block with a CA function or would that be weaker than the current approach that bitcoin uses?</comment>


What Recruiters Say vs. What They Mean - <AUTHOR> http://blog.entelo.com/what-recruiters-say-vs-what-they-mean

<comment><USER2> I once got an email from a recruiter who claimed to be "impressed with my GitHub contributions".

My GitHub account is empty, and has literally never committed any code.</comment>


Launch HN: Sudden Coffee (YC W17) – Instant coffee that doesn't suck - <AUTHOR> Hey HN! I'm Kalle, one of the founders at Sudden Coffee (https://www.suddencoffee.com). We make instant coffee and sell it through our website as a subscription.
I started working on this almost two years ago after my cafe business failed. I was frustrated by how unscalable and inconsistent selling good coffee is.
In 2015 I placed 9th in the World Barista Champs in Seattle. On the flight back to Helsinki I was desperate for caffeine and ordered a coffee which was horrendous. I started wondering what would be a better way than Aeropress + hand grinder combo to have great coffee on the go.
Instant coffee is liquid coffee that's been dehydrated. It's normally made with the worst beans that are roasted really dark and extracted up to 6 times at temperatures up to 180C and 15 bar pressure. As a result, they can reach 60% extraction yield. Next, the liquid is boiled down and finally dehydrated by spray drying it with hot air. This process results in the gnarly bitter, woody, rubbery instant we all know.
We start with good beans: currently from a co-op called Biftu Gudina in Ethiopia, roasted by 49th Parallel in Vancouver, BC. In the beginning we brewed the coffee by hand as espresso — I would literally spend 12 hours per day pulling shots. At one point we had a full-time person doing this.
Eventually, we developed our own fully-closed centrifugal brewing system that doesn't allow for any aroma to escape. We extract the coffee at low temperatures (85-90C) to 21-23% extraction yield. As a result, we only get the good stuff — sweetness, fruitiness, acidity — and none of the bad stuff.
Also, we've developed our own freeze-drying technique that's kind of equivalent to a server farm. Instead of having one enormous machine we have a bunch of small freeze dryers. This allows for greater control and shorter iteration cycle.
This might be too long already so I'll stop here. Looking forward to discussing the coffee business and great coffee in the thread! <comment><USER3> I work in the coffee industry and saw Sudden pop up last year so was interested in the technique and hacked it out.

Freeze dried coffee is already what Folgers does and sell you. This is the more artisanal version of that since the big brands have big factories that can pump out plenty of instant coffee grounds.

So this is a ramped up volume play on existing techniques perfected by the doomsday preppers. Youtube search for freeze dried coffee and you'll plenty of people explaining how to do it.

The freeze drying machines sell for $600 to $1000 from a variety of vendors. I think I figured out which one Sudden is using, it's the low end consumer version from Salt Lake City. They just have 20 of these in a SF warehouse somewhere.

From there it's just a method of scaling expensive capital costs, labor intensive processes, and maximizing the calculation of yield, and marketing enough to convince people that $2.50 for freeze dried coffee in a tube is a good deal.

That only works when relative to the crazy world of craft coffee people charging $5 or $7 for a pour over with the Keurig pods at $1.50 anchoring the bottom and buying a big can of coffee to make your own at $1 a carafe.

<comment><USER4> Downvote me to hell, but I think people drink too much coffee (and caffeinated drinks), it's just not necessary and is an addictive substance. I think it's a toxic substance honestly, tires the adrenals and heart out. Anyone else on here who abstains from caffeine?

<comment><AUTHOR> I think you're making a great point - coffee is the legal drug at the moment. Personally, I drink coffee for the flavor, not for the caffeine. I'm a big fan of high-quality decaf coffee and it's something we're looking to do with Sudden.

<comment><USER5> I think you would have a shot at a solid niche with the decaf angle. Think about this: At practically every workplace you can get real coffee, which will probably always beat freeze-dried stuff. But if you want decaf you are SOL.

I am currently forced to drink Nestlé Gold Decaf and it is just barely tolerable. I don't know how your product compares but personally I would spring for anything better in a heartbeat, price be damned.

<comment><AUTHOR> This is really great to hear. We've had a good amount of demand for decaf option and are working on it. Email me and I'll keep you in the loop

</comment></comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER6> Wasn't a problem with "bad" instant coffee largely solved by Starbucks VIA, which too utilizes a novel tech that produces very decent results? Even the mega snobs of /r/coffee were largely OK with it came out few years ago.

Also, re: this -

        Instant coffee is liquid coffee that's been dehydrated.
        It's normally made with the worst beans ... Next, the
        liquid is boiled down and finally dehydrated by spray
        drying it with hot air.

From what I remember this is how Nestle was making its first version of instant coffee back in 1930s. It then switched to the freeze-drying method in mid 60s, which is still used to make Nescafe Gold.

It's very cool to see that you made your own brewing/dehydration tech, but twisting facts and bad-mouthing your competitors is not the right way to go about promoting yourselves.

<comment><USER7> Every flight I've been on with Starbucks VIA has been absolute trash. Airplane coffee quite literally tastes like it was made with toilet water. That's honestly the only way I can describe it. I'm bearish on any improvements because I'm convinced the problem is the water they use.

<comment> gingerbread-man You're spot on re: the water quality. An investigation at DFW a few years ago found hazardous levels of e.coli in the potable water tanks used to refill aircraft.

I wonder why the airlines aren't doing anything about this. I'm not a frequent first-class passenger, but if I were, high-quality coffee would be a big deal for me.

<comment><USER8> > I'm not a frequent first-class passenger, but if I were, high-quality coffee > would be a big deal for me.

Many transatlantic and transpacific flights now have a proper grind-on-demand coffee machine (allowing for lattes, cappuccinos, etc) in business / first class. Doesn't necessarily solve the water problem, although they can fill them up from bottled (I don't know if they actually do).

<comment><AUTHOR> Definitely looking to do plane coffee at some point but the water quality remains biggest issue.

</comment></comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER9> I'd like to echo a huge need for this in backpacking and travel areas. For instance I went on a cruise recently and could not get a decent cup of coffee for a week. I would have loved this option for travel.

If I saw this at a premium price and it was marketed and positioned properly as a much better alternative than Starbucks Via at REI or some other outdoor retailer I'd definitely buy it. I wouldn't subscribe for it simply because it doesn't meet my daily needs. I already have a nice electric grinder and do either pour over or Aeropress for coffee. Maybe I'm not your target market, but I think I could be if I can simply order it for travel and backpacking or on the go use.

<comment><AUTHOR> Thanks for the comment! I hear ya. We're considering retail as an option in the future. Right now the subscription simply is the business model that makes sense for us - our current margins are too slim for retailers.

<comment><USER9> That makes sense. If you offered a batch where I could just buy a bunch and it stays good for a long while then I would definitely buy some in that model. That way I can simply stock some away and pull it out for trips or when I don't feel like making it / in a hurry etc.

If you want to hit the backpacker market get some freebies out to blogs like Andrew Skurka, Section Hiker, Adventure Alan, Gear Junkie, etc. I don't know that the market is big enough to target, but I suspect with how profitable REI is there may be something to it.

<comment><USER10> I'm not sure what the shelf life is currently… maybe a couple months?

Personally I subscribe for a similar use case and then just defer a week or two or skip on the months where I haven't used it all yet. Their subscription management options are very fine grained which is nice. I've been really happy with it so far.

</comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER11> So, I am curious -- A while ago I experimented with making a better instant coffee. I came up with a few different solutions. I'm curious as to whether you've looked into them:

1) Pouring a ristretto into liquid nitrogen. At reconstitution time, put into boiling water and stir. Issue: Cold coffee, potential colloid separation -- solutions might include some kind of stabilizer

2) Taking a ristretto and removing water content to concentrate it, and then pull a vacuum on it and package it. Said package can then be opened and dissolved in boiling water. Issue: Complexity. Removing the water can be complicated, pulling a vacuum on it, and then heating it while at vacuum is hard.

3) Coffee puck: Take traditional coffee, and put it into a permeable membrane that when exposed to water above a certain temperature is permeable. When that temperature drops, it stops being permeable. Problem: Said polymers were hard to find.

<comment><AUTHOR> 1) You need to keep it frozen, right? That makes it a lot more complicated + probably issues with the colloids (we experienced that at one point)

2) The bigger challenge is actually brewing large amount of ristrettos/espressos, not necessarily concentrating it.

3) just sounds way too complicated to me to rival/equal soluble coffee

Edit: haven't really looked into any of these as a feasible option for us.

<comment><USER11> This might be a trade secret, but how are you keeping the colloid solution coherent?

I'm kinda surprised you say that brewing the ristrettos are the hard parts. I know that centrifugal brewing is all the rage these days (as siphon, pour- over, and espresso were before), but it seems like automating espresso is a solved problem. Are there no industrial-scale burr grinders?

I think the biggest problem would be tamping and getting that to be consistent.

Is there anyone who needs industrial scale espresso?

<comment><USER12> The part re: colloids is a trade secret at this point, but definitely a real challenge.

As far as we could find, there is no common solution for industrial scale espresso. If someone has one, please post it here. This was a personal obsession of mine last spring - "How does this not exist?!?"

Kalle is the coffee expert, but as the 'non-coffee guy', I have no idea why this wouldn't exist - I would have thought someone out there would need it?

<comment><USER13> industrial scale espresso: what about those automatic espresso machines you can sometimes find in office buildings? they pull single, double, or triple espresso shots from a touch screen interface. Can do lattes etc. too, but assuming you wouldn't need that part.

<comment><USER11> They're called super automatics. Generally, they're really expensive, and they make coffee very slowly (.5ml/second if you're lucky). They also tend to be built by companies who don't readily provide documentation on how to fix / modify them.

</comment></comment></comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER14> OK, I'll try it. I've been interested in an instant/easy cup of coffee for a long time and yet to find anything worthwhile.

From a tech standpoint the order process is a bit lacking and confusing. I'm prompted to create an account after ordering, but then emailed an activation for an account that was automatically created.

I'm unsure if my month starts now, and I can expect a shipment soon, or if I have to wait till 4/22, which is what your site says my next shipment will process.

You linked to a 'super secret' area ([https://www.suddencoffee.com/?trial=true](https://www.suddencoffee.com/?trial=true)) where it says your trial will convert to an eight cup subscription for $24/month, but I signed up on the normal page for $22/month.

I'm looking forward to trying the coffee, as well as having a more intuitive and less confusing site to manage my subscription. How is that for a coffee/tech snob? :D

<comment><AUTHOR> Thanks for pointing all these out!

Agree that the order process is a bit lacking. We just hired our first engineer to work on it. We're currently using Shopify + a bunch of apps since our focus has been the hardware (brewing + coffee). Also - just had a meeting yesterday to figure out how to make the site more clear.

Your month starts now. We'll ship your coffee tomorrow and the subscription will renew on 4/22.

The pricing for the trial is a bug. We lowered the price recently and clearly forgot to update the description - I just fixed it.

Really appreciate the feedback!

</comment></comment><comment><USER15> Hi Kalle, I love my daily pour over, so I might not be your target market, but I'd definitely be interested in purchasing a few coffees without a subscription. Have you thought about offering that?

<comment><USER12> Co-founder of Sudden here. This question comes up a lot. We have tried offering one-time purchases and it didn't work very well/ wasn't sustainable for us. 3 reasons we believe in a subscription model:

1) A big reason we started this company together was our shared belief in making customers feel good through hospitality. It's more than just the coffee itself. We want to build a better experience - if you are a Sudden subscriber, the experience should evolve over time, you'll learn more about coffee, try new things, have fun with it. To us, this wasn't about making something to have once a year on a road trip, but a way that we could connect with customers and create a larger community. A subscription is the best way for us to build a lasting experience at our current size.

2) For a lot of folks out there, it is super easy & convenient and they wouldn't have it any other way. They like that Sudden Coffee just arrives and they don't have to think about it. It's something they can add into their life.

3) Subscriptions mean we can offer the same product at a much cheaper price. We can spend a lot less time & money making ads or sending emails to remind you to buy again. This is the reality of what most CPG companies do - <USER2> about how often you see a toothpaste ad for a toothpaste you already own, even if you love it. We pass the savings directly on to customers. We ran the numbers, to offer the same coffee without a subscription, we'd have to charge $4-5/cup.

To clarify 2 things: A) You definitely can still be in the target market for us. Our most popular subscription is 8/cups a month. This is meant to ADD-TO not REPLACE your existing coffee ritual. We find Sudden works best as your 'second-cup' of the day (at least as you try it out). We have plenty of customers who make a daily pour over and then use Sudden in the afternoon.

B) We recognize that giving people a way to TRY before subscribing is a big gap in our service and we are actively experimenting with the best ways to do that. It may come in the form of referrals from other customers or special sales. We just brought on someone last week to think through the experience and were brainstorming about it this morning.

<comment> mark-r A subscription also doesn't allow for any fluctuation in demand. If you're having a bunch of people over and want to offer them great coffee, how do you do that without depriving yourself for the rest of the month?

<comment><AUTHOR> Good point. It's a work in progress, and we're exploring what's the best model. You can always order me by emailing us. We just saw that having a one- off model completely cannibalized our new subscriptions.

Email me if you want to order a one-off and I can hook you up ;)

<comment><USER16> Wouldn't that indicate that you are missing out on a significant portion of your market? Maybe I'm misunderstanding what 'completely cannibalized'means but, personally, I'd probably follow the money; because that's where your market seems to be. Subscriptions can be good, especially if your product is sticky, but why ignore the demand for single orders?

Perhaps having packs of 10/25/50 is a viable road. After all, what's so different about sending out kits monthly to a subscriber vs sending one out to someone who purchased a month supply as a test?

</comment></comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER17> I've been a subscriber for Sudden Coffee since Christmas and I love it. The coffee is definitely as good the corner cafe here in San Francisco. I love it because it takes me 1/10 the time to make a great cup of coffee in the morning. I just upped my subscription so I can get more every month. On top of that the customer service has been top notch so far with Kalle himself answering my questions.

My initial worry was that it was too pricey but they released this blog post which I found enlightening: [https://blog.suddencoffee.com/transparent- pricing-what-goes-...](https://blog.suddencoffee.com/transparent-pricing-what- goes-into-every-cup-of-sudden-coffee-6ed4a76b91c2#.cjwjqe2d1)

<comment><USER18> > The coffee is definitely as good the corner cafe here in San Francisco.

I've only tried a few since I don't even live in SF, but IME "as good [as] the corner cafe here in San Francisco" could be anywhere from horrible to excellent, depending on the particular corner cafe.

<comment><USER17> Okay, fair. I'm from Salt Lake City where the coffee is decidedly not as good. What I meant to say it's as good to me as Philz.

<comment><AUTHOR> We did a blind taste test at YC - 72% of the founders in our batch prefer Sudden over fresh Philz ;)

</comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER19> Maybe I'm biased, as a fellow YC founder, but I don't understand the negativity.

1) Sudden is the first company that I've actually considered buying instant coffee from. In the US, there's a pretty strong stigma against it, so that's not an easy task.

2) $3 per cup isn't a lot of money, roughly equivalent to a cup of coffee elsewhere in SF. Especially if I don't have to stop anywhere and can just put it in a water bottle. Actually this would be great for camping.

3) I have no idea how they are making it, but having read numerous writings by the founders, this sounds a lot harder than I imagined.

4) Having spoken to many investors, fellow founders, and others, this is really compelling to a lot of people. Again, I live in the bubble of Silicon Valley, but "better, faster coffee" doesn't feel like an elitist product.

I'm all for Sudden Coffee being successful.

<comment><USER20> There is definitely some SV bubble around this. I can buy a local cafe pour over cup for less than this product.

I can buy my own beans and heat the kettle and pour that over in less than 5 minutes.

If I'm desperate and in hurry then I can make a cup of Keurig for a fraction of the cost.

<comment><AUTHOR> I don't in any way disagree with you. If you're happy with those options then that's great - as you said, you'll save money. However, we're seeing that Sudden is a really compelling product to a lot of people. Most of our subscribers are outside of any larger cities and we ship to 42 states.

Sudden is not for everyone and we're totally ok with that. As YC says "it's better to have 100 people that really love you than 1M that just kind of like you" ;)

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER21> I don't understand the point of this product.

You're obviously targeting people who already like coffee, such as myself: I already buy beans, grind them myself, and manage the process using an Aeropress, and I'm hardly some coffee hipster because I use goddamned Eight O'Clock Columbian Peaks.

Yet, you are trying to sell me instant coffee, which I automatically am wary of because instant coffee is the shittiest coffee you can drink... yet you have no way of convincing me otherwise. Subscriptions are only useful if you can convert the customer, "the first hit is always free."

Also, your entire website is a hastily developed trainwreck: "Copyright $copy; 2017."... Copyright who? The email harvesting call to action in tan needs to follow the rule of thirds to stand out, your contact page needs serious loving (seriously, Google on how to make these), and your front page hero image is goddamned tiny and isn't even full width of the page, and the Sudden/Instant comparison block below it is formatted horridly.

 _Please_ hire a web designer, you need someone with experience on how to do this right.

<comment><USER22> The design is fine. Certain things can be tweaked but great web design isn't really going to drive the product. The taste, market-fit and brand probably have more impact.

I'd suggest offering samples for a small price. Convincing customers about the taste with only a website can be an uphill battle unless they've been recommended the product, or actually tasted it. Perhaps free taste samples in stores can be a sales channel to the web site.

<comment><AUTHOR> Thanks for the suggestion! We're exploring what we can do here. Ideally we'd love to make sampling really easy & inexpensive but with our current costs it's simply not feasible right now.

<comment><USER23> There must be _some_ price where you would break even shipping out a single tube.

You could charge that amount for a sample, even if _you_ consider it overpriced.

You might be surprised at how many people want to try it, but don't want to commit to a subscription right away.

</comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER24> I buy instant coffee 3 or 4 times a year when I go backpacking. Because it's that rare, I'm not going to subscribe, but if I saw this for sale at [Big Box Outdoor Store] when I was buying supplies, I'd probably pay a premium for it.

<comment><AUTHOR> Great, thanks for the feedback!

</comment></comment><comment><USER25> Honestly I'm mostly interested in the centrifugal brewing system. 85-90C doesn't seem very low to me, maybe just below my brewing range across methods (192-204). Sounds like your current method would be similar to an Aeropress.

You said you'd spent 12 hours a day pulling shots- were you using espresso for the coffee? Is this freeze dried espresso, with more water added to it (like an Americano)?

I'd truly love to know more about your brew technique and process.

<comment><AUTHOR> In the beginning we were brewing the coffee as espresso since that was an easy way to get a higher strength (≈10% TDS) coffee brewed in low volumes - kind of took the YC mantra "do things that don't scale" to heart. So yes, until Aug 2016 it was basically dehydrated espresso.

Our current setup is quite different and in terms of flavor profile and brew dynamics does represent AeroPress. I'd love to go in more detail but can't disclose more.

</comment></comment><comment><USER26> I'd like to try it for backpacking, but not interested in a subscription. Give an option to purchase a sample pack.

<comment><USER27> Amen to this. I would be much more inclined to try Sudden Coffee out if there were an option for a one-time purchase, especially if registration were not required (I really don't want to deal with yet another password).

As a side question: what's the shelf life of Sudden?

<comment><AUTHOR> Thanks for the feedback - duly noted.

The shelf life is around 4-6 months - we recently started to flush the tubes with nitrogen so as long as you keep the in cool, dry and dark place they'll last for a while.

<comment><USER28> +1 to the above. The first thing I looked for on your site was how to try it. I don't want a sub before I try it.

Has anyone 'hacked' your coffee - I'm thinking of the Aeropress community and the nifty things they've done.

Have you demoed this anywhere in person?

For instance, in Austin people stand in line early in the morning for BBQ, and I'm sure you would make a huge impression if you gave out free samples a few times.

</comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER29> Super impressed with this - one of my coworkers has been giving out samples of it, it's absolutely perfect for mornings when I'm in too much of a rush to deal with grinding / brewing, and also for camping trips.

<comment><AUTHOR> Awesome - really happy to hear that! I use it every morning at home and it's soooo easy.

</comment></comment><comment><USER30> I _actually_ subscribed, 8 cups for ~$19 seems pretty decent to me. Keep selling subscriptions ... it's a better business.

How do your yields compare to cold brew?

<comment><USER31> Keep selling subscriptions...to corporate clients, to whom you can give volume discounts.

You can sell a shit-ton of this (if it's great) at half the price. But almost $2.50 per cup is more than Nespresso, and the customers willing to spend that month-in and month-out are already going to have Nespresso, etc.

<comment><AUTHOR> We're making ≈35% margins by selling it as a subscription. More about the price here: [https://blog.suddencoffee.com/transparent-pricing-what- goes-...](https://blog.suddencoffee.com/transparent-pricing-what-goes-into- every-cup-of-sudden-coffee-6ed4a76b91c2#.s9xy53vkz)

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER32> Hi Kalle, the best coffee I ever had was an espresso macchiato at Freese Coffee in Freesenkatu (Helsinki, Finland - and yeah, that guy's lastname and company's name matches the street name due to some history). I used to live couple blocks away. Awesome stuff :)

Please, don't offer these only with subscription. Let me do one-off purchases and you have me as a customer.

<comment><AUTHOR> Hahaa! Really happy to hear that :) Thanks for the feedback re: one-off.

</comment></comment><comment><USER33> > On the flight back to Helsinki I was desperate for caffeine and ordered a > coffee which was horrendous.

This is what I hate about caffeine, the dependency and withdrawals you get when you're not taking your dose. I love coffee and black tea, but the dependency and habituation to the effect of it is what makes me wean off from time to time.

</comment><comment><USER34> I get the desire for recurring revenue, but I really want to buy and try once; pledging easy cancellation near your call to action would really massage a lot of the complaints in here.

<comment><AUTHOR> Totally get it - thanks for the feedback. You can cancel anytime simply by emailing support@suddencoffee

<comment><USER35> Oooh... Ouch... Cancelation by emailing somebody is really not cool... That should be the sort of thing that can be done automatically with the hit of a switch. If you could get your programmer to set that up it would be a good step.

Also, no shipping to Japan?

I'd like to try this out but without shipping to my region I suppose that's me out.

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER36> I want to challenge your idea with the question of whether it's really needed. True, having good instant coffee would be an improvement. But I guess we have just accepted that it is as it is. If you want good coffee you sit down, take your time, it's also a culture a thing. If you just need something warm to drink at the bus stop or a caffein shock before a meeting, badly tasting coffee is "good enough" for most people. So, who'll buy "suddencoffee"? (and is that really a good name for it? sudden doesn't feel like high quality)

PS: Btw I really think if this thing has a market you are probably the guy to make a product for it. I can believe that. Great. But if there's no market, better focus on other stuff, e.g., how to get the premium locations were people come to get great coffee.

</comment><comment><USER37> I already prefer instant coffee (sublimated) to the usual coffee machine- grinded bean coffee (it always tastes off for some reason). Instant with milk always tastes perfect.

</comment><comment><USER38> I had a batch of this and can confirm – not only did it taste like pour-over, it tasted like one of the best pour-overs I'd ever had. I was shocked.

It just happens to come in powder form. (I'm your typical SF tech coffee geek, like a lot of us I'll seek out the good stuff.)

Sell on Amazon already! :)

<comment><AUTHOR> Thanks Ed! We're considering/exploring Amazon.

</comment></comment><comment><USER39> At the current pricing, there is no way I would purchase. Flavor isn't worth THAT much to me.

At least for me personally, mediocre but extremely inexpensive coffee > "great tasting" $2-3/cup coffee. Not to mention, it being "instant" to me, means even at this price it will still be inferior to high-end bulk coffee.

I already thought Keurig pods were expensive (and they don't make great coffee either so I avoid them), this makes those look reasonable.

Maybe I'm just not your target market. The product itself sounds like it may be great, just IMO not worth the cost, and I have no idea what your target market would be, but it seems it would be an extremely small subset of coffee drinkers (I could be wrong)

</comment><comment><USER40> Have you considered letting the coffee speak for itself and offering a paid/free one cup sample to get people interested? I'm not going to take a $19 leap on coffee I don't know if I'll like, no matter what people say or how good your marketing is. The fact that it's currently offered as a subscription makes it even less likely that I'll bite.

However, if I tasted your coffee and found it reasonable, I would probably sign up, even for a subscription. If you had an option to just buy a $3 sample cup I would, and if what people say about your coffee is true, I'd probably turn into a customer. I think a lot of people would be in the same boat, as well. Just something to consider.

<comment><AUTHOR> I totally get that we have a high barrier of entry. We tried lowering it last year when we offered one-off purchases. However, that just doesn't work with our current user acquisition model. Even if we get a lower number of subscribers their LTV is much, much higher.

<comment><USER41> It's not about LTV of your customers for you. This could easily be interpreted as 'when given a chance to try the product without a subscription a large percentage of the trials led nowhere'. That you get a larger LTV out of an automatic conversion is a given, it would be _extremely_ surprising if that were not the case.

I would suggest that you try to get to the point where your LTV of customers trying one paid/free sample and _then_ converting into regular paying customers or subscribers is proof that the product works rather than to get into the bin where the unsubscribe barrier is what keeps you going.

<comment><USER12> Short answer - we're starting to experiment with trial options. This is a link to a 2-cup trial that converts to a sub: [https://www.suddencoffee.com/?trial=true](https://www.suddencoffee.com/?trial=true)

Longer answer - sort of but not that simple in our current state. Even if you absolutely love a product, often times you don't buy again. Many reasons for this - it's a pain to checkout again, you don't have your credit card on you, you forgot about it, you're just too busy with other stuff.

If we had an Uber-like app - one click to order, saves your credit card, sends you push notifications to remind you - it would be a lot more feasible to send you a single cup of coffee and make it really really easy for you to buy again. Unfortunately, it's hard for us to do that right now and we end up losing a lot of people who truly did love the product.

Before LTV or any of that stuff - the big question is if we call up our subscribers, are they happy? We hear again and again "Yes, I love the product, I love that it shows up, it tastes great and saves me time". We would not be building a subscription service if that were not the case.

However, we are absolutely testing different trial options to get at what you're talking about.

<comment><USER42> This is a product where clearly some kind of free sample is necessary, because when you make claims like you are about your coffee, people want to try it before subscribing to it. If you're giving free samples, you need to collect credit card information to avoid fraud anyway, so you may as well add the customer to a subscription after 30 days unless they opt out. The rebill model is profitable for a reason.

I would go so far as to say you should create an affiliate program. I know the "rebill" affiliate marketing model was quite scummy (acai berry, teeth whitening back in 2008-2011), but it worked very well and doesn't have to be so scummy. The problem then was that the major products were hiding the terms of the rebill and made it impossible to cancel without multiple angry calls to callcenters. But it doesn't have to be this way. Lots of reputable products have rebill models, but they are clear about the terms when you enter your credit card info, and you can opt-out of auto-renew with a button click at any time in the next 30 days. If you can do this you can capture the advantages of the rebill model without high chargeback rates and reputation damage. The rebill model will increase customer LTV and enable you to pay competitive commissions to affiliates who drive signups.

Once you know the percentage of customers who convert from free trial, you can start measuring the average length of subscription to calculate LTV (if churn is negative the average LTV will increase over time). Then you can use that LTV to determine maximum customer acquisition cost (CAC). With that, you can launch an affiliate program (by registering as an advertiser on the few big affiliate networks) and pay a commission as some percentage of customer LTV (hopefully around $20 if you want to compete with other affiliate offers). As LTV increases you can raise commission for your best affiliates.

This is the kind of product that affiliates can sell very efficiently. You should let them do your marketing for you, and use the funding you're raising to bankroll your affiliate program.

</comment></comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER43> This is super interesting!

I had always assumed coffee was made via liophilization at scale, any insight on why it's not?

On the subject of extraction, how are you measuring yield? What are the main differences in the 40% coffee yield you're leaving on the table?

<comment><AUTHOR> In normal conditions you can only extract up to ≈30% of the coffee beans mass, ie. no matter how fine you grind and long you brew you'll only get 30%. The rest are insoluble solids: cellulose so basically wood.

When the big boys brew the coffee in really high temp and pressure (165-190C, 15 bars) the structure of the bean changes and previously insoluble parts of the hemicellulose become soluble. This means you get a higher yield but what you get are nasty, woody, heavy bitter compounds.

Here's a diagram explaining more: [https://goo.gl/dJTsxM](https://goo.gl/dJTsxM)

<comment><USER43> Ah ok, with you now! Are you guys mainly a hardware company then? Anything cool going on software-wise for you guys?

<comment><AUTHOR> Yeah, mainly hardware now. We just hired our first dev (and are still looking for a VP Eng!) and have some software stuff coming up. First we're working on making the ordering process better and building tools for our subscribers.

Here's the job posting in case you're interested: [https://jobs.lever.co/suddencoffee](https://jobs.lever.co/suddencoffee)

<comment><USER43> Ok cool, thanks for sharing!

A big part of artisanal coffee is that it uses high quality water (usually magnesium enriched after filtering via reverse osmosis iirc) - is there anything you can do to control for this / shitty water at the customer side?

If you're brewing with Mg-water then, most of it will be left behind when freeze drying, of course, but water used to rehydrate the coffee will be a big one...

</comment></comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER44> Instant coffee can actually be good (although right now almost all of it is downright horrendous).

(sorry, have to mention competing product). Nescafe Tasters Choice in the single packs I find very acceptable and often prefer to brewed coffee.

So I'm pretty sure good instant coffee can be done. Be very interested to see what can _really_ be done with an even higher quality product as this outfit appears to be doing.

Not crazy about subscription though. Understand it makes business sense from companies perspective but it doesn't from mine. Maybe this will work out nicely to where other distribution models make sense. Best of luck! I'm rooting for you :)

<comment><AUTHOR> Thanks for the feedback! We chose the subscription model partly because that allows us to use

1) really high-quality coffee 2) not cut corners in the process 3) Sell it at the lowest possible price to you guys

</comment></comment><comment><USER45> I would keep a stash of this for when I get up early and want a cup while I set down to work. I can't run my grinder or espresso machine because it wakes up the kids.

I do drink normal instant coffee in those desperate times, but I would very much enjoy a high quality alternative.

Not interested in a subscription though, it's bad enough that every piece of software I use has moved to a monthly model without it taking over my physical world too. You do your thing, but I'll be checking back periodically to see if you've started selling individual boxes.

</comment><comment><USER46> Like other people, I'm not precisely the target market. I brew my own pourover with beans I get from my local roaster (hooray Andytown!) and admit that part of my love of the whole thing is for the ritual of grinding, weighing and so on.

That said, I appreciate good-tasting coffee, enjoy trying new things, and am intrigued. I could see uses for this, and it would make an interesting gift. I'm way more likely to buy a one-off than subscribe. I understand wanting to have consistent month-over-month predictions, but there we are.

<comment><AUTHOR> Thanks for the feedback! I love Andytown - have you been to the new shop yet? I live in TL and wish it was closer :(

<comment><USER46> Haven't been down to taraval yet - I live just a couple blocks from the lawton shop. Maybe tomorrow- I'm out of amaro gayo, so I could check out the new location.

<comment><AUTHOR> Really like the new one. Had a shot of the Gayo espresso and it was great.

</comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER47> Michael: What do you think of when you hear the name, "Sudden Coffee"?

George Michael: Coffee dressing, I think. But for some reason I don't want to drink it.

Jokes aside, best wishes. Got a trial subscription for $?

<comment><AUTHOR> Yup - here: [https://www.suddencoffee.com/?trial=true](https://www.suddencoffee.com/?trial=true)

</comment></comment><comment><USER48> I just wanted to comment that I LOVE your marketing site. Extremely easy on the eyes, clear, good calls to action. I don't give that compliment easily either, it really is great, succinct, clean. That's my biggest problem with most sites is they're ridiculous and not built for actual sales. Great work

PS. I just ordered some. Now if only blue bottle coffee would do this :| I think their coffee is god like. we shal try yours now

<comment><AUTHOR> Thanks! We're considering partnerships with different roasters and maybe Blue Bottle could be one of them.

</comment></comment><comment><USER49> As a regular instant drinker-- I wish you luck.

My go to instant is Cafe Bustelo, cheap, woody, strong and 17¢ a cup when it's on sale.

At your price, Sudden occupies an interesting niche, but I think it will do fine given how massive the coffee market is!

Nothing beats instant for convenience, it's a lot easier to find a hot water than a coffee machine. And slips in your pocket like grinders and a bag o' beans doesn't.

</comment><comment><USER50> I've switched almost exclusively to drinking Mount Hagen organic Fair Trade instant coffee. It's very, very good at a decent price.

<comment><AUTHOR> As a barista, the most important thing to me is that you're happy with whatever your drinking :)

</comment></comment><comment><USER51> Very interesting product. I'm glad to see an instant that's dedicated to quality. (Edit: Found a bit on your page on the tubes not being biodegradeable: "we simply aren't big enough to get a packaging company to make us biodegradable alternatives", hopefully this is addressed later.)

I do have a question to do with your Transparent Pricing page, where the following is stated:

> It costs us $2.34 to make each cup.

followed by

> A general rule of thumb for most packaged goods is that you must mark up the > product by 50% to cover your expenses marketing and selling the product. > Luckily we don't follow the rules. If we did, we'd have to charge $4.68 a > cup!

Marking up 50% sounds like you should charge an extra 50% of the cost of the product, but that statement uses an extra 100%. I'm not sure if it's wording or phrasing but that sounds like bolstering an exaggerated markup price to increase the perceived value of your actual price. Any clarification on this?

</comment><comment><USER52> For some Australian context, being in Melbourne, a place full of coffee lovers (and something we jokingly say our city is better at than Sydney) I can't say I see a market for nice freeze dried coffee.

I'd almost go so far as saying it's become a very established cultural past time to go out and buy a fresh coffee from a local cafe - even when there may be Nespresso on offer in the office for free. I don't see how this product would make it here - the taste of the coffee is simply one (very important) part of the coffee _experience_.

Where I do see a market however is outdoor activity stores; camping, caravanning, fishing, boating etc. Sell them in large boxes so we can take them away for trips.

I know it's not a "monthly" transaction then, but I fail to see how that model will work here. Perhaps some of our other states such as Queensland, NT or WA where it's a bit harder to consistently find a good coffee somewhere nearby.

<comment><USER35> That's not a joke. Melbourne coffee is definitely better than Sydney coffee.

</comment></comment><comment><USER53> You're targetting espresso over drip. This is good in my books, but I don't know how the US oddity about drip vs espresso will affect your market. Europe and Australia/NZ will likely pose different marketing requirements.

For EU/AU, it seems to me like you want to be competing with the Nespresso market and leveraging the fact that you can produce a similar 'pod' quality (or better) without the machine - basically a convenience approach, perhaps with some price influence. You'll struggle to compete with superior flavour since we understand decent espresso. There's a reason Starbucks has nearly completely collapsed in Australia and it's largely thanks to Italian migrants in the 60s, and enough of Europe knows about Italy that they have a clue about coffee. The secondary advantage is that in AU at least (maybe also EU? my experience of travel there isn't broad enough), a good cafe-made espresso is quite expensive (AUD$5) so you have profit margins on your side too.

For the US, you can't really compete on price and people are more happy to drink rubbish coffee like badly made drip and Starbucks. To this end, in my mind you will need to convince them that the superior flavour is worth it when it is not prohibited by superior expense or effort (ie: going out to a specialist cafe). The evidence is in this thread where people balk at the idea of a $3 'instant' coffee. This is a distinctly different marketing ploy to the above, but I think a one-size-fits-all won't work for you.

I don't really have a lot to add, but that's my gut feel on how you need to go about pitching this. Simply saying 'we can do instant coffee that doesn't suck!' to me doesn't quite capture the subtlties of the problem you're actually solving for consumers, as it doesn't place it in the broader context of how/where/why they consume coffee.

Good luck!

</comment><comment><USER54> I've recently cut down to one or two cups a day, and I'm not super picky, so I'm not the target market here, but I'll give my two cents anyway in case it helps.

Number one, $19 for 8 cups of instant coffee seems really expensive. I can get a really good basic coffee around here (Boulder, CO) for between $1.50 and $3, depending on size and quality. If the instant costs almost as much, I might as well just walk across the street.

Second, a subscription model seems strange for instant coffee. It's something I'll use when I don't want to make regular coffee, but also can't run across the street to buy one. I'm not in that position often, and I'm not even a coffee snob.

Just a random thought, but have you considered a tiered approach? Sell the first extraction at a higher cost, but also have a cheaper product line that does the extraction process two or three times to increase the yield?

<comment><AUTHOR> Thanks for the feedback! The price is that high because of the quality of coffee and process we use. My co-founder Josh wrote a blog post about it here: [https://goo.gl/mYuxkt](https://goo.gl/mYuxkt)

Re: extraction - We've thought of that. With our current equipment it's not possible. I think the more realistic way would be to extract the coffee once and sell the spent grounds to another company for further extraction.

<comment><USER55> I'd plus one the price too...its laughably expensive. plus the packaging is extraordinarily wasteful. I'd say the process needs major work to reduce the price point and rethink out the packaging. I actually drink instant when I'm camping and would love to try it but I would consider this product super niche because it's honestly not much more work to just do a pour over of real coffee (for less money).

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER56> Not a connoisseur by any means but a drinker of expressos.

Where I can I drink Nespresso, meaning I have machines at home, at work, in summer homes usually, etc. Many hotels also have a Nespresso machine in the room nowadays.

In rental homes, and esp. when you go skiing and the apartments you find yourself in are very small, there sometimes isn't any Nespresso machine. There I usually buy the likes of these:

[https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0052OOLZY](https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0052OOLZY)

and while it's nowhere near "good", it's "good enough" to get one started in the morning.

So, what's the market for Sudden? Apparently it's only available via subscription, so the casual user isn't included. Are you claiming to be better than Nespresso? That would be interesting -- hard to believe at first, but exciting if true.

</comment><comment><USER57> There is a three michilen star chef in Milan who uses instant coffee in his signature dish. Send him a sample!

I found someones version of the recipe:

[https://forums.egullet.org/topic/112265-carlos-craccos- basma...](https://forums.egullet.org/topic/112265-carlos-craccos-basmati- risotto/)

</comment><comment><USER58> So, I drank instant coffee in morning and immediately recalled the headline I read last night here in HN "Instant coffee that doesn't suck". Unfortunately, I'm not in the US to order, but when I opened your website, I did not find your package beautiful. It did not seduce me, it did not seem to be a premium product.

It seems to me that one of the biggest potential marketing strategies you could have is when someone takes one from the bag in a public space, like an office, and another will ask: What is it?

But, at least for me, the only thing I would think would be that this is some kind of medication or a cigar, and I would remember the Seifield episode about Pez.

Have you thought about changing the package to something that gives a better experience and seems more premium?

</comment><comment><USER59> While I've had fun going down the freeze dried prepper hole a few times for trying to make gluten free camping food... If you're considering doing this yourself, just buy a good super automatic coffee machine. Such as a Jura Ena. Good ones can be had on craigslist. They're prosumer type machines so you can fix them as well. They make amazing coffee, so good you'll burn yourself out on it if you're not careful. They cost about $350 used and $1k new. Both prices are totally worth it, esp when compared to trashing a kuerig machine every few years and the prices you're paying for k cups. And you get fresh.

That is for home consumption. Travel? this might be cool. My camping gear has a aeropress in it.

</comment><comment><USER60> The wife and I are coffee nuts. To some extent, anyway. We also like to go "camping" in an RV. I used to do french press, but the ground beans would get old too quickly and I don't have much interest in a grinder inside a tiny space. So we're using plain-old instant coffee. It's better than nothing, but that's about it.

I've been thinking about cold brewed coffee, but that's a completely different taste. Not bad, but very different and not really what we're looking for.

All that said... I'd love some "not horrible" instant coffee for this situation. Also to keep in my desk drawer for when we run out of k-cups. Or even to replace them if it's good enough.

<comment><USER61> There seems to have been (in the U.K. at least) a recent drive towards 'wholebean instant'.

This mixes your traditional freeze dried instant coffee with some very finely ground beans, which does make for a much better cup of instant.

Give it a try if you come across it, it may fit that niche.

</comment></comment><comment><USER62> I'd love to try this, but minimum $19/mo subscription as the only "Buy Now" option?

<comment><USER63> I'm with you. I'd only want this sporadically, like when I'm camping and traveling or to give as gifts. I don't need it on a monthly basis and I feel conflicted about having to sign up only to cancel (and how easy is that?) within a month.

<comment><USER64> Same here.

From where I sit, Starbucks Via Instant is the competition. It's a notch above the urns of Folgers Freeze-Dried in the grocery store, but like all things Starbucks, still too bitter to really enjoy on its own.

Okay, so I'm not a coffee snob. I'll brew at home in the morning with water at the right temperature, but I'll use pre-ground beans from a vacuum pack. Sure, freshly roasted tastes way better, but as long as I can avoid the bitterness from over-extraction, I'm generally happy with what ends up in my mug.

Because it doesn't need sugar.

That was a revelation to me: that properly brewed coffee _does_ taste pretty damn good on its own, maybe with a bit of milk to smooth out the rough edges.

But the point is, I have no shortage of coffee options at home: aeropress, coffee press, pour-over, good old drip machine. And when I travel, I would struggle mightily to care less about my coffee.

That all said, I would spend $20 for a sample pack to try while backpacking -- especially if it's truly epic coffee. Bringing milk along on the trail is... difficult at best, and it would be a nice little luxury to start the day with a cup of something genuinely tasty.

But starting off with a subscription, for a product I've never sampled? Unlikely.

Maybe I'm not the target market, and I could be drastically underestimating the number of coffee snobs in the world, but I suspect that this company struggle with the current offering.

<comment><AUTHOR> Really appreciate the thoughtful feedback - thanks!

<comment><USER64> Good luck!

</comment></comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER65> > We start with good beans: currently from a co-op called Biftu Gudina in > Ethiopia, roasted by 49th Parallel in Vancouver, BC.

Can someone explain how cities like SF and Vancouver, where nobody can afford to live, can sustain indie coffee shops? I have never understood this.

<comment><AUTHOR> Good questions! Most people working in these cafes can't afford to live in the city - most baristas in SF seem to live in the East Bay. A lot of people are still able and willing to pay $3-4 for a cup of coffee so instead of going to Starbucks people choose to buy better coffee in smaller shops?

</comment></comment><comment><USER66> Does anyone know how this compares to Starbucks Via?

<comment><USER12> Co-founder here - it's miles better than Via. Sometimes we include a packet of Via in our shipment so you can do a taste comparison (thinking about making this standard). You'll definitely notice the difference side by side.

<comment><USER67> That's a fun marketing idea, though maybe not necessary for the people who are already dedicated enough to have signed up for a subscription.

<comment><AUTHOR> True - good point.

</comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER68> First. Good luck

I'm all for trying new coffee. So far nothing has been worth the difference in the price which is why I still but store brand. (Bounty towels ARE worth the difference in price, e.g.)

Will you sell creamers and sugar and stirrers and cups?

I'm not sure what your product does - do I still have to heat up the water? I would love your product to be alka-selzer like in that I drop it into my cold cup of water and I get a hot cup of good tasting coffee. No need to heat up the water

</comment><comment><USER69> My two cents from a sustainability perspective.

My girlfriend and I would never consider something like this due to the high volume of plastic involved. Can you make the containers compostable?

<comment><USER12> Working on it. We do individual servings because they preserve freshness - that's the only reason we do it. It's hard for us to do compostable since we are still very small compared to your average consumer good, but we are 100% committed to doing it when we are big enough. We even have 2 sustainability advisors involved with the company.

<comment><USER70> Cool. I'm not the one who originally posted the question but had the same one upon checking out the starting page. Great idea, something I would be interested in signing up for, but too much plastic at this point.

<comment><AUTHOR> Totally hear that. The tubes are recyclable and we are testing a programme where folks can send the back to us for re-use.

<comment><USER71> +1 for this. The amount of waste in the current model is unfortunately a non- starter for me or my girlfriend.

<comment><AUTHOR> Gotcha!

</comment></comment></comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER72> I'd be interested in this, but it's considerably more expensive than a large cup of pretty awesome coffee I can get at the local cafe on the way to work...

</comment><comment><USER73> I would love to try this, but having the monthly subscription as the only option is off-putting. You should at least offer an option to 'buy' a trial pack.

<comment><AUTHOR> We have a trial option available here: 2 cups for $6: [https://www.suddencoffee.com/?trial=true](https://www.suddencoffee.com/?trial=true)

</comment></comment><comment><USER74> This sounds very interesting, but why did you choose YC? The organization seems to be suffering from serious style drift lately (I know this is "diversification" by design). That being said, YC has no demonstrated historical core competency in physical consumer foods or goods.

In short, there had to be a better org to be a better initial investor/growth partner for a food company than YC.

</comment><comment><USER75> Love the positive approach to bringing good coffee to places where people would often settle for less, be it due to time, noise or weight constraints. Any chance you guys are looking for a mechanical engineer to scale up production?

</comment><comment><USER76> Why no one-off purchase option?

<comment><AUTHOR> Email me and I'll see what we can do ;)

</comment></comment><comment><USER77> While travelling through Thailand, I discovered that the country thrives on terrible instant Nescafe. Open to international expansion?

<comment><AUTHOR> We're currently fully focused on the US market. International expansion is definitely in the plans but not for this year. By far the biggest growth for instant coffee is in China.

</comment></comment><comment><USER78> Kind of curious why you guys chosen 49th Parallel, when there are myriad other roasters in USA itself. I mean its great you picked 49th; I lived in Vancouver for many years and am a fan of them(+Lucky's Doughnuts!).

But wondering if you are based in SF, & assuming your initial target market is USA, why go with a cross border hassle?

</comment><comment><USER79> Any chance of offering a "test drive" purchase, so I can check out the product before committing to a subscription?

<comment><USER12> If you go to this secret link you can get a 2-cup trial that auto-converts to a subscription in 21 days.

[https://www.suddencoffee.com/?trial=true](https://www.suddencoffee.com/?trial=true)

We are experimenting with ways to let people try it first - so more solutions are coming!

</comment></comment><comment><USER80> I'm actually a daily instant coffee drinker so I'll definitely check this out. Currently I use the Korean instant coffee packets (includes powdered cream and sugar). Since I get these for about 12 cents a packet, it's unlikely I'll be a permanent convert, but I adore the packaging for Sudden Coffee.

<comment><AUTHOR> Yeah we definitely won't be able to beat that price. Would you buy a Sudden three-in-one with cream and sugar if there was that option?

<comment><USER80> I've already ordered the regular kind, but I'd be interested in the three-in- one also!

I do occasionally drink my coffee black if it isn't super bitter.

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER81> This seems great - I've bought a subscription and look forward to trying it at the office. I hope it's as good as you say so I can try and convince our ops folks to order it at work.

Curious - have you considered doing coffee tastings at local (or YC) startups to try and get recurring subscriptions at businesses?

</comment><comment><USER82> As someone who would love to buy this for long bicycle trips, I'm a bit turned off by the subscription model.

I know you want to hook me with a steady supply of superior coffee that's quicker to make, but I love the ritual of brewing my own pour-over coffee too much to think I'd give that up.

<comment><AUTHOR> Totally get that! I love making coffee too (guess that's why I'm a barista). Our goal is not to replace your existing coffee rituals but rather to offer an alternative that's better than other instants etc.

<comment><USER82> Right. My point is I only use instant on a very specific occasion, maybe once every two years, so a subscription turns me away. I'll still probably try it, though!

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER83> You should put some on Amazon FBA for Europe. Volumes are decent and it's like super low maintenance. You can then decide where to expend your subscription based on sales rather than intuition.

I'm based in the UK and I would love to try some.

</comment><comment><USER84> This is amazing..I wish we had this in India, which is still catching up to high end coffee.

As a coffee obsessed , but curious hacker - what is the biggest _technical_ challenge in for this? Is it the brewing, or the bean selection..or the freeze drying?

</comment><comment><USER85> Those plastic containers; why such expensive and environmentally unfriendly packaging?

<comment><AUTHOR> Working on it. We do individual servings because they preserve freshness - that's the only reason we do it. It's hard for us to do compostable since we are still very small compared to your average consumer good, but we are 100% committed to doing it when we are big enough. We even have 2 sustainability advisors involved with the company.

</comment></comment><comment><USER86> I love my cup of good coffee, but this is a little too expensive for me for day-to-day use. But I may use something like this when I'm on the move or camping etc. if it is truly better than the best instant.

</comment><comment><USER87> Congrats on the launch! It's been great seeing your progress since last summer.

<comment><AUTHOR> Thanks! We've loved using stuff from Lumi :)

</comment></comment><comment><USER88> Were you on the last season of the pitch?

[https://thepitch.fm/episode/sudden-coffee- season-2-episode-2](https://thepitch.fm/episode/sudden-coffee- season-2-episode-2)

</comment><comment><USER5> How come freeze-dried is preferred over concentrate (pods)? It seems like the freeze drying process would inherently be more destructive that simply preserving the liquid in a pod, minus some water.

</comment><comment><USER89> Why the tubes? What are the downsides of using a standard stick pack format instead? I would think that's cheaper from both a materials and a shipping standpoint.

</comment><comment><USER90> And here I was thinking that coffee is a solved problem with starbucks :-) I wish you had a one-off offer so that I can first taste the coffee before I subscribe.

</comment><comment><USER91> You have me almost sold.

Is there a way to buy some on a one time basis without subscribing?

I would like to sample the coffee before committing to a subscription.

</comment><comment><USER92> Too bad it's only in Canada, Finland and U.S.

Also, why in hell you use plastic as a holder? Do you realise how much waste you are creating?

</comment><comment><USER93> From their website: _Instant Coffee

Often made from leftover crops, sometimes 5+ years old. Coffee is unripe, moldy, or has insect damage. Yikes._

Any sources on this?

</comment><comment><USER94> Great name!

<comment><AUTHOR> Thanks! Kudos to our investor & Chairwoman Caterina Fake - she's the one who came up with it

</comment></comment><comment><USER95> Why are startups obsessed with subscriptions? Just sell me some coffee. Start an Amazon store and let them handle the logistics.

</comment><comment><USER96> Satisfaction Guaranteed section typo: "If your are ever unsatisfied, we are unsatisfied and will work to remedy the situation."

your -> you

<comment><AUTHOR> Thanks for pointing that out! Will fix it.

</comment></comment><comment><USER97> Please do a carbon dioxide extracted decaf!

<comment><AUTHOR> Working on it - either that or Swiss water.

</comment></comment><comment><USER98> First heard about these guys on the Cooking Issues podcast a while back. Cool to see them with YC!

</comment><comment><USER99> I would love to try this out but you guys don't post to Australia yet :(

<comment><AUTHOR> We did international shipping until Jan but it turned out to be just a pain. A lot of shipments got stuck in customs or got lost - it wasn't the customer experience we wanted and not really worth it for us

<comment><USER100> It did make smile when I looked at the country drop-down and the options were United States, Canada, and… Finland.

I also recommend offering a one-off ordering option. It offers a try-before- you-commit option, as well as for those who normally brew, but would buy some of this for when they travel.

I would also recommend adding Australia to your country drop-down, but I have ulterior motives there.

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER101> Instant coffee is the definition of "sucks"

</comment><comment><USER102> Since HN is probably a caffeine-heavy crowd, I'll launch into this here... I understand the pitch, and I'm happy someone is pursuing better instant coffee. The status quo is really, truly miserable. If you have the need to carry coffee on your person at all times so you can have a decent cup wherever you are, Sudden sounds like a good option. However, I suspect most people drink their coffee at home or work, and while everyone will have their different "optimal" coffee scenario, I'll offer my experience to great coffee without spending unnecessarily on pods or instant:

If you want better coffee, you'll get most out of your investment by buying fresh, whole beans and a grinder. The $15 blender-like grinders? Just fine for most. As long as your beans are fresh you'll have a vastly better cup of coffee. Grind up whole beans in like 30 seconds and stick it in your regular drip coffee machine and enjoy 10 minutes later. You've now improved your coffee game 100%.

Find a local roaster, or a roaster that will ship coffee within 24-48 hours after roasting. The reality is you can often get fresh, locally roasted coffee for the same price or less than what you can get national brands for like Starbucks, Pete's or premiums like Stumptown. If you're a 2-4 cup a day, expect to need 1.5 - 2 pounds (~1kilo) a month. That's probably ~ $30 in fresh beans. (depends on what a "cup" means to you in terms of volume, but 2 pounds of beans makes quite a bit of coffee). YMMV, but that's a conservative estimate.

After that, investment in fancy equipment is much more marginal so make investments that fit your needs.

The next big step up in quality comes from temperature (regular drip coffee machines just don't get hot enough for the best flavor extraction), but solutions to better temperature brewing usually require more direct attention at brew time. Pour-over is great and inexpensive, and even if you don't take the time to carefully poor for 5 minutes and just dump, you'll get decent results. The Aeropress is another option in the same price range that can be marginally faster and also has really good flavor results. I use one frequently.

Impatient? Well, if you're thinking of spending $2+/cup on instant (where you still have to heat the water for those that want hot coffee) because you're in such a hurry, consider what that will cost you in a year and look at investing in something like a Breville Barista Express* or independent burr grinder and espresso machine. You can grind beans and pull a shot in less than a minute. Drink Americanos (espresso + hot water to yield what is essentially a regular cup of coffee. Flavor IS different than drip/pour-over though. maybe taste at a good coffee shop first (not starbucks)) or drink cafe-au-lait (warm milk+espresso) or even just espresso shots. You'll be net positive in about a year if you're drinking around two cups a day. This route also ends up wasting less coffee than making a whole pot and never finishing it (to be fair, also a pro of Sudden/instant).

* This isn't a plug for Breville explicitly (I DO have one, though), it's just that the Breville is really the only machine of it's type on the market (a grinder and true-espresso machine in one housing, not a super-automatic like the Jura). You CAN get great (maybe better) results with separate grinder and espresso units that have better qualities independently, but you won't necessarily be saving money. Imho, never buy a super-automatic.

You can easily spend ridiculous money on coffee and equipment. For most people, it's not worth it unless you want coffee to be your other hobby, (or, "snobby" as I'd probably call it). For me, it's just sourcing fresh beans at ~$20-$30/month and that gets me most 90% of my enjoyment for my multiple daily cups of coffee. I enjoy my Aeropress, Chemex and espresso machine, but they'd be useless without good, fresh beans.

</comment><comment><USER103> Sudden coffee? That's when someone knocks the cup into my lap!

</comment><comment><USER104> Do the machines that brew these accumulate mold like keurig machines?

<comment><AUTHOR> Do you mean the equipment we use to brew and dehydrate the coffee? We use CIP process for all the equipment - there's definitely no mold growing in any of our equipment. For brewing - just add the powder to water or milk, no need for brewing

<comment><USER105> Milk? Interesting. Does cold milk work?

<comment><AUTHOR> Sure does but you need to stir (or better, shake) it a little more. The best solution is to mix the coffee in a tiny bit of hot water and then add cold milk/water.

</comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER106> when companies do these types of posts, does that mean that they have already been accepted into the 2017 winter batch of YC companies? or is this just part of the application process?

<comment><AUTHOR> It means that we've been part of the YC winter 2017 since January 3. The Demo Day was yesterday so it's almost finished actually.

<comment><USER106> Winter 17 started in the winter of 2016? Confusing.

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER107> > _It's normally made with the worst beans that are roasted really dark and > extracted up to 6 times at temperatures up to 180C [...] This process > results in the gnarly bitter, woody, rubbery instant we all know._

And then there is Nescafe Gold.

Thanks for playing.

</comment><comment><USER108> Hm. 1 plastic tube / cup?...eco-booboo -eh?

<comment><AUTHOR> Working on it. We do individual servings because they preserve freshness - that's the only reason we do it. It's hard for us to do compostable since we are still very small compared to your average consumer good, but we are 100% committed to doing it when we are big enough. We even have 2 sustainability advisors involved with the company.

</comment></comment><comment><USER109> what do you think of the starbucks instant stuff? (personally I think it's as bad as starbucks but not much worse)

<comment><AUTHOR> It's remarkably similar to fresh Starbucks. I think it's up to everyone to decide whether that's good or not.

</comment></comment><comment><USER110> Have you measured acrylamide levels?

<comment><AUTHOR> We haven't measured them but they should be equal to any high-quality specialty coffee. I know that regular instant coffees have considerably higher levels of acrylamides that are caused by poor quality coffee and processing at extremely high temperatures.

<comment><USER110> Yes and it might turn out to be a useful marketing angel for you. Thanks for the reply.

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER111> Looks great! Can you add the Netherlands to your list of shippable countries?

</comment><comment><USER55> holy shit. soooooo expensive.

<comment><AUTHOR> Here's our blog post about the pricing and cost breakdown: [https://goo.gl/WwQLYc](https://goo.gl/WwQLYc)

</comment></comment><comment><USER112> I'd try this if there was UK shipping!

<comment><AUTHOR> We shipped internationally for about a year but stopped recently since a lot of packages got stuck in customs or got lost.</comment></comment>