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subset: commoncrawl


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People who know the Susquehanna River best are worried. That alone may be reason enough for the rest of us to give pause. If not, the photos in Sunday's edition of The Daily Item will do the trick.
Since fall, three or four of every 10 fish caught by anglers in the Susquehanna River have turned up with alarming black splotches.
Carl Shingara, who operates a tackle shop in Shamokin Dam said he has fished on the river for 50 years. Until last year, he had never noticed the type of abnormalities that are becoming common. He is far from alone. Dr. William Yingling, a retired physician, brought the situation to the attention of the newspaper. Yingling said a friend of his caught a blotched bass on Friday near Winfield, on the West Branch. Another angler reported to him a similar catch near Towanda, on the North Branch.
Bob Bachman, a member of the Pennsylvania Fish and Boat Commission urged the state and federal governments to launch investigations to determine what is causing the problem.
Concerns about water quality have been accelerating in recent years. One potential threat comes from pharmaceuticals that work their way into the water because conventional sewage treatment systems are not equipped to remove the drugs from the water. Researchers suggest there could be a link between pharmaceuticals in the water and "intersexing," a condition in which fish have the sexual organs of both genders.
Fisherman, such as Yingling, wonder whether treated gas drilling waste water might be to blame. A Shamokin Dam power plant was treating water used in drilling until last year. The state Department of Environmental Protection ordered treatment plants to cease discharging gas drilling wastewater into waterways such as the Susquehanna River after chemicals were found in drinking water in western Pennsylvania. The Fish and Boat Commission has formed a Susqueuhanna River Policy Committee with representatives from the environmental regulatory groups, the Department of Agriculture and wildlife agencies.
It can be a challenge to establish discernible links between a specific practice and a biological abnormality. There is something clearly wrong with the river.
In the old days, miners would know to evacuate when the canaries perished, signally a carbon monoxide build-up. We have fish with hideous markings. We have fish with sexual abnormalities. What other warning sign are we waiting for?


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Commemorative bricks to be part of the Entertainment Plaza area on 4th Street in Plattsmouth. The Plattsmouth City Council approved the Plattsmouth Main Street Association request. It is a fund raiser for the organization.
The bricks are engraved by sand-blasting and then painted to bring out the characters.
The Cassgram reports that the association would like to have all historic district businesses and other member business names identified in the plaza roadway prior to the October 7th dedication.
Individuals should consider these for unique gifts, memorials, cute sayings, remembrances, and important events, says the association.
Payment is by cash, check or credit card. Information and order forms are available under the "Memorial Bricks" at http://www.plattsmouthmainstreet.com or by calling the association at 402-296-5544.


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The Mythical Number Two StarterBy
The last two offseasons have been all about finding a number two starter for the Yankees, someone to pair with CC Sabathia. They made a huge offer to Cliff Lee last winter, and this year they've at least made an attempt at Yu Darvish after showing little interest in C.J. Wilson. We fans have already started looking at next winter's free agent crop in anticipation of the search continuing next year. Something got lost in translation somewhere along the line though, what exactly are we talking about when we refer to a number two starter?
Whenever we talk about prospects, we tend to pigeon-hole them into rotation slots because that's the easiest way to talk about their long-term potential. A number one starter is one of the best pitchers in baseball, but a number two is still really good, but a notch below number ones. A mid-rotation guy is solid but lacking something (a third pitch, command, etc.) that prevents him from being any better. A number four or five starter, a back-end guy, they're generally easy to find and lack a number of things to be a successful starter long-term. Baseball America puts a list of tools and their importance to the various positions in their Prospect Handbook every year, and they define a number two starter as someone with two plus pitches, an average third pitch, average command, and average makeup. That's prospects though, big leaguers are much different.
The term "number two starter" is pretty vague when talking about guys in the Majors. You could take it literally and consider the second best pitcher in every rotation a number two starter, but I think we can all see the problem with doing that. If you're a die-hard believer in WAR, then perhaps a number two starter is someone in the 3-5 WAR range, give or take a little. If you're going to stick with that definition, then looking at a player's value over several years is important. Pitchers that consistently sit in that range are more reliable that someone who has had an up-and-down career. Does that apply to the Yankees though, do they need that consistent 3-5 WAR guy in the rotation? You can make that case, but I don't buy into WAR enough to say that definitely.
Realistically, what the Yankees need is a pitcher better than the group of Ivan Nova, A.J. Burnett, Phil Hughes, Hector Noesi, David Phelps, etc. That's essentially what it boils down to. That guy doesn't have to be as good as Cliff Lee, but it sure would be nice if he was. That's what they need right now heading into the season, which is different than what they're going to need ten months from now when the playoffs start. Ten months from now, they just need someone to pitch like a number two, it doesn't matter who it is or how they were acquired or how much they're being paid. Nova was that guy last year, but they probably shouldn't count on him doing that again. It's not that he can't, but young pitchers tend to be unpredictable. Of course, the better your staff is, the more likely it is that someone steps up and pitches like that number two in the playoffs.
Now I don't want to come off as the spoiled Yankees fan I so obviously am, but the playoffs are not a given. They'll be a little easier to get into now with the second wildcard, but the Yankees have a really good team and have a better chance than most at qualifying for the postseason. There is some value to winning the division now, so perhaps they need that mythical number two starter right now to help them to another AL East crown. I'm not sure it's an absolute necessity, but it wouldn't hurt. The point is, number two starters come in all shapes and sizes, and they don't have to pitch like a number two all season long. Timing is everything. Sometimes we get too caught in labeling people certain things that we forget about context.
87 Comments»
DoN't bet on hamels or Cain to get to FA. Go after Kuroda,and hope Banuelos or Hughes deliver on their potential and become a no.2 starter.
I'd like to go back in time and get Haren.
I believe Haren is a FA after 2012, and the Angels might not be able to afford him with the contracts to Wells, Pujols, Wilson, and Weaver.
Thought he has a team option for 2013?
Still grumpy about Yu, despite what you say Mike.
Maybe the Yanks are holding their money for next year as an earlier article speculated? Or maybe they really are "budget conscious" (or cheap as we call it around here) now.
i wonder if Cashman will actually trade some of these prospects he's stock pilin while they have value
The Cards lost a #1/2 for the season and won it all. YCPB.
Okay, the yanks loose CC, and see if they make it out of the regular season into the postseason.
But if they do, someone (or 2) might step up, have the performances of their careers, and the Yankees may win. While not likely, it has happened and will happen again.
CC always seems pretty loose..
Yankees won the division by 6 games without trying to win the last few games.
They were 12-11 in games CC started. To lose the division, the Yankees would have to go 5-18 in the replacement starters' starts.
But they needed a Bostonian-style collapse by the Braves just to make the post season.
I don't see the embattled AJ being a # again for the Yankees and I have been one of his most ardent supporters. I wanted Yu but I'm afraid that we may not get him. If that happens then I would not mind signing Kuroda for one year until one or both of the Bs are ready. Still, I hope I'm wrong about AJ and that he returns to what he was in 09.
That's a#2 on AJ.
no. # was correct.
This was the post-season that rebuts the "pitching wins in the post-season" argument. If you were generous, you would say this World Series featured one "number one" starter (Carpenter) and one "number two" (Wilson).
Not that I am drawing any conclusions, save this one: There is more than one way to build a championship baseball team.
In truth, the No. 1 Yankee starter is the pitcher standing on the mound on any given day or night ready to throw the first pitch of the game.
True, C.C. is listed as No. 1 in the starting rotation but Burnett has never been any better than a No. 4 starter.
Hughes, Nunez, Warren/Noesi, Bentances, Romine, & Hiroyuki Nakajima for John Danks and Gordon Beckham?
I know, my trade proposal sucks.
cashman; make it david beckham and you have a deal
"I know, my trade proposal sucks."
Wow, you weren't kidding.
Dude…not trying to go too hard on you, but your proposals get worse and worse. Why do you keep adding players to this hypothetical deal? It's not even like Clayton Kershaw is the guy we're talking about here.
I'll also say this again…Phil Hughes will be better than John Danks in 2012.
i'm coming around to the idea of this rotation:
hug those prospects!
lower that payroll!
Where's Burnett?
Dump Freddy and start banuelos or bentances. Play them or trade em, banuelos is the only one young enough to wait on.
If they wanted to dump Freddy, they wouldn't have just signed him.
My point is they shouldn't have signed him. I'd rather start noesi betances Warren phelps banuelos
Those guys will all start where they belong… in Scranton.
Betances and Banuelos need to iron out their control. Ideally they'd spend the year there and make a late season appearance (a la Matt Moore) but I think the state of the Yankees rotation (assuming we don't obtain anyone this offseason) will force their earlier arrival.
Awesome idea…. with each throwing 130innings last year, you shut them down in Aug, or let them go 50-70 innings more than last year?
Or you could actually let them develop, build up the innings so they can actually throw a complete season, get much needed work on secondary stuff so they don't devolve into Phils Hughes style 2 pitch pitchers, and show they can walk <4/9IP above A ball level competition?
Yanks didn't like CJ Wilson as #2. The angels didn't either, they liked him as a #3. Tampa has what 1a shields 1b price 2a hellickson 2b Moore?
the kind of stuff Moore has its probably anothe #1
Rays rotation
1 Sheilds
1a Price
1alpha Moore
2 hellickson
Moore is going to be scary good. I think moore's floor is hamels with a kershaw ceiling Tampa rotation is nasty.
I like Moore as much as the next guy, but you can't just give him a floor of Hamels. And not because of the risk of diminished stuff due to injury or whatever.
Should I use Dontrelle willis as a floor? You can't use the "anything can happen" in baseball and life when looking toward the future. Or else one can say what if Robinson cano forgets how to throw the ball to first base. That can happen and has happened to a Yankee 2b, two in fact.
So there you go. Anything can happen. Moore's floor, then, could be "unable to even make it in the minors". (But that's seriously unlikely.)
But we (and scouts) do use ceilings, floors and comps.
Yes, but I think it's still a bit early to use Hamels as Moore's floor. He needs a bit more time to determine if that's truely the case.
The generally accepted way to project the future is to assign probability to all possible outcomes.
Therefore the Rick Ankiel situation is considered, but gets a small weight.
"Floor" is a convenient shortcut to actual analysis.
There are starters who look really, really, really good in the minors and don't pan out in MLB, by the way.
How small is the Ankiel, rumored-drug-related-control-meltdown, weight? Would Adenhart be considered too? JR Richard? Dave Dravecky?
This is not something I made up. This is basic introductory decision sciences that every undergrad business student is taught. Stop questioning me everytime I bring up this widely accepted process for projecting future outcomes and buy a textbook. Take a class at your local comunity college. You might be trying to make me look stupid, but you're exposing your ignorance on the subject.
I was using Ankiel as a symbol for falling apart. Not saying exactly the same things might happen in the same ways. Obviously you have to do it in a practical way. WAR ranges, for example. 0 WAR is 0 WAR however you get there.
I didn't claim you made it up, I asked what weighting you would assign to the pitchers I mentioned.
Try to understand what I'm saying. You keep criticizing it, but have not taken the time to understand it because you keep making false claims.
I am not weighing individual pitchers from the past. I am weighting his probability of achieving and maintaining certain levels of success. Ankiel was an example I gave to represent flaming out. It is possible Moore totally flames out for any number of reasons. I also gave that example in direct response to what I was commenting on. That is considered, but it's a small weight in the total picture and it can happen to any player… Some with a greater probability than others.
That you don't understand this concept means nothing at all in the grand scheme of things. You might want to dismiss what you don't understand, but I'll bet you this is exactly what the statisticians employed by the Yankees do (this being a dumbed down version)… because it's a basic principal of the science of statistics. Again, read a book once in a while and you might be stunned how your knowledge starts to expand.
How much weight would you give to Moore completely flaming out, a la Ankiel?
I would run regressions to determine the impact of various factors on a prospects' success, trying to develop a model or several models to get a decent projection.
Or a simpler way to do just the Ankiel thing would be to look back at a relevant sample of top pitching prospects and see what portion of them flamed out. There's a trade-off between getting as comparable to Moore as possible and having a large enough sample size.
There's no way to predict the future with complete certainty, but you can get an idea by looking at the past.
So then do it, Teddy. Actually do something rather than talk about the somethings you would do. I'll check back around 10:00 or so tomorrow morning. If you need an extension, you'll need a pretty good reason, 16 hours is plenty of time.
This is not something I made up. This is basic introductory decision sciences that every undergrad business student is taught. Stop questioning me everytime I bring up this widely accepted process for projecting future outcomes and buy a textbook. Take a class at your local comunity college. You might be trying to make me look stupid, but you're exposing your ignorance on the subject.
I was using Ankiel as a symbol for falling apart. Not saying exactly the same things might happen in the same ways. Obviously you have to do it in a practical way. WAR ranges, for example. 0 WAR is 0 WAR however you get there.
This is not what scouts/baseball teams do…
What you are describing would be projecting something with far more quantitative and measurable inputs where actual simulations/projections can be done… something like a Monte Carlo simulation where each of the variables are tweaked, and you may run 10,000 simulations to get a range of outcomes and corresponding probabilities.
Any undergrad taking a course like the one you apparently are suggesting people should take should know that type of methodology can't be utilized in this case where the inputs are not as exact and quantifiable. Have you ever read a scouting report?(an actual report not a summary)
Scouts basically project best and worst case… only they aren't absolute best and worst case as that would be meaningless (every prospect could be a bust and everyone can be a late bloomer and potential HOF'r). They also don't go through a range of 5 or 10 or 50 possible outcomes and start applying probabilities like you describe.
How scouts do it is somewhat arbirary interms of definition – some may use 80% confidence levels (floor) and 20 confidence levels (ceiling or upside). Some may go 90/10 or 70/30, but typically it is two outcomes. The only thing that is somewhat standardized is how they evaluate individual skills… most do this on a 20 – 80 scale.
The decision process you describe is useful but I think you are misapplying it here.
Are you in the Yankees front office? How do you know what they do and don't do?
I am not talking about scouts. I am talking about a multi-billion dollar company that employs department of trained statisticians. The Yankees do employ statisticians. You think they just sit around jerking each other off?
These inputs are very quantifiable. Some of them are subjective, but scouts even quantify tools. Econometrics and statistics in general are not exact sciences. You can still get a decent idea of things using them.
These tools are very, very valuable in finance, which is very comparable to managing player personnel in team sports.
When you say generally accepted… what front office are you in to know this?
Get off your high horse and stop acting like you know stuff and then insulting people…. any undergrad who could pass a stats (stats or business) class would know you are describing a process where inputs can be measured accuratedly, rough standard errors are known. You have offered NOTHING that says this is used by scouts/front offices.
Every team now employees people with statistical backgrounds… that is not evidence of this ABSURD process you describe exists where teams look at multiple outcomes and assign a specific probability to each outcome. And to clarify the absurdity is applying it to baseball, not the proc ess itself. Teams just don't go through a pleyer nad have a model of 50outcomes with various probabilities….YOU ARE ASSERTING THIS, YOU PROVIDE EVIDENCE OF IT WHEN MAKING A BASELESS CLAIM OF GENERALLY ACCEPTED…. give me 10 teams that use the process you describe.
If the inputs are very quanitifable… please give me an example…. give me a standard error with those quantifiable measurments which then allow you to do a sim model generating a wide range of probabilistic outcomes.
In short instead of continuing to spew out opinions and passing them off as facts, how about some actual real examples of this? How about some actual evidnce of this apparent widespread business practice in the baseball world….
I said it was generally accepted in statistics, not MLB baseball. I did not say I know for a fact teams are using this. I said that if teams are employing people with statistics/econometrics backgrounds… it's pretty likely that they're paying them to put the things they learned in school to use and not to jerk off.
I did study business and economics undergrad, and did learn these things. It's not an absurd process. That you don't understand it doesn't mean it's absurd. I have zero understanding of quantum physics, but if a physicist explained his work to me… I would not tell him he's absurd.
If you don't think baseball stats are quantifiable, I have no idea what to tell you.
I did not call the process absurd… I said assuming that a specific process is applied to baseball is absurd simply because it is "generally accepted" (and that phrase is another can of worms)
Please read my comment I'm not suggesting teams don't use statistics, just the specific probablistic projection model you are suggesting is used (or "likely" used) in baseball is absurd. What you are couching as "generally accepted" may be true in some fields, but that should not be confused with generally accepted or likely used in baseball. As far as I can tell you have zero inside knowledge or esperience in the baseball world to support your assertion.
There is more than one way to apply statistics and the application of them is very field dependent based on the information, uncertainty and need…
To give you an example (since you seem to have a background in stats)… doing a Weibull analysis is a powerful tool and "generally accepted" in many areas/fields… doing a Weibull analysis on a baseball player would be absurd.
(For folks going "huh?" A Weibull analysis is a statistical way at looking at failure modes and can assess whether a failure is infant mortality vs a wearout mechanism as well as giving a rough indication/detremination of wearout rates… this would be useful for say a car part and less useful for say a pitcher's arm)
I was not calling you or your work absurd… what is absurd is just automatically assuming something "generally accepted" in some fields makes it "likely" used in baseball without seemingly understanding the differences and limitations of the fields and the system you are talking about.
And if you could stop creating ridiculous strawman like:
"I said that if teams are employing people with statistics/econometrics backgrounds… it's pretty likely that they're paying them to put the things they learned in school to use and not to jerk off."
Yes, you are spot on… if teams are employing statistician/econ folks and they are not using a specific probablistic projection system, then the only other thing they could be doing is "jerking off"
It's not like they could be doing other types of analysis or using other projection systems than the one you are convinced they are "likely" using.
I'd say it's likely teams are paying people to understand what the limitations of something they learned in school has in the specific field they are working in…. I'd say it's likely they are not paying people to determine the % outcome a prospect has at being 40 different types of pitchers, because any statistician/econ guy worth his weight would understand what a useless exercise that would be and how there are much better metrics and projection systems that could be used given the limitations and information available in the baseball field.
But you seem to know what you are talking about and are emotionally invested in this argument.
How else do you propose to project the future besides to look at the probabilities of different possible outcomes? You could become the next Ms. Cleo maybe if you can predict the future another way. Not meant as an insult… I just don't know of another way.
You are making this overly complex. I am not saying that all teams or any two people would use the exact same model with the exact same weights and arrive at the same conclusion. It's a really simple concept we use with everything we try to predict: what are the possible outcomes and how likely is each one?
I would assume that MLB teams have robust statistical databases, just as finance firms do… but maybe I'm wrong. If they do, this sort of analysis really isn't that hard… getting it right is nearly impossible, but doing it is easy. In investing you're (simplistically, assuming you always invest the same amount… or weighting for how much was invested) looking to be right 51% of the time. Make money more than you lose money. You'll be extremely rich if you can consistently do that over, and over, and over. I don't know what the success rate you're looking for is in baseball. With amateur acquisitions (draft, IFA), I'm sure it's very, very low. Tampa might be wrong in the draft 90% of the time (made that up), but their 10% might be a lot better than just about any other team. With $20+ mill per free agent or extension guys… probably looking for a much higher success rate. Not 100% though. You're never going to predict the future right 100% of the time with something so volatile.
Some GMs might not have anyone doing this work or just disregard it fairly often to go with a gut feeling or whatever else. I would bet on it, actually. Subconsciously, though, I would bet even the most "gut instinct" GM assesses the probabilities of various outcomes to project players. Doesn't quantify it, but just says guy projects as a #2-3 starter with an upside of an ace and a floor of a strong reliever with control issues for example. He's weighting the probabilities of the different outcomes. I think it's better to quantify it, then test your model going forward to see how it works and try to improve it. He might not, though. He's largely ignoring the outcomes below that floor because he thinks their likelihood is too small to worry about, just like the likelihood he mimics Doc Gooden's second season every year is too small to worry about. He's probably also placing a probability of injury on the guy.
I sort of described Dellin Betances there. You could also use that to describe just about any elite pitching prospect, though, changing the probabilities for each scenario depending on who it is. Matt Moore probably has higher chances of the better scenarios and lower chances of relieving than Dellin (probably a little lower chance on injuries… though that's a bit of a wildcard to me, would need to research it a lot more). For a guy further from the bigs, the floor gets lower.
I would assume someone like Andrew Friedman with a finance background and little baseball background is using these concepts on steroids in an organized model. Things I've never heard of nor considered.
Testing (trying to figure out last word-itis)
Nah, he has better raw stuff than Dontrelle, I just can't see Hamels as a floor for anyone. You're basically saying "at worst, Moore will be among the top dozen starters in baseball". Its just too high a standard to set.
(Please note: My comments are different from Ted's standard "you can't know anything that hasn't happened and thus all things are possible" comment. I'm fine with ceilings and floors, just not using Hamels as a floor for any 22 year old.)
I am so tired of you trying to make it seem like I am wrong out of your own ignorance. Go to a local university, find a stats professor, and ask how you project future occurrences. They will tell you the simplest way is to assign probabilities to the various possible outcomes and multiply to get a basic projection. This is first year, maybe second year stuff for undergrads. Common knowledge pretty much. Not some theory I pulled out of my ass.
You really think that you can predict the future? Are you a fucking psychic?
You can project the most likely scenario. Anything is possible, but some things are far more likely than others.
Try learning something instead of arrogantly basking in your ignorance.
Remember what happened last time you told me to "find a professor"?
This: http://riveraveblues.com/2011/.....ers-50498/
Yeah, you jerked yourself off for a while.
Keep basking in your ignorance…
A lot of other people jerked me off too. It was really funny and made you look really silly. Ha!
Mister Del…
I'm new to this board but is Mr. Nelson always like this? If so I will just ignore him as from just looking at a few recent threads and the one you linked it is becoming clear he is more interesting in 'winning' an argument than having an honest discussion (to the point where apparently the argument starts to evolve when it is clear it is not winnable or just turns into an attack)
It is also clear someone has "last word-itis" so I assume the only way things stop is for someone else to stop commenting and just let him go with his claims of I'm right and everyone is wrong/ignorant?
My comments were not meant to troll him and with just a single comment I get a "do you work for the Yankees?" response… is this pretty normal and par for the course?
Art, you have told me that what I studied in school and do for a living is absurd. Are you serious?
Yes, this is pretty much what to expect. In Ted's world, he is the only poster logical enough to know that all hypotheticals brought up here are based on incomplete information. This means they are not worth debating beyond debating just how stupid the other poster is for (1) bringing up the hypothetical and (2) not recognizing that he or she is working with incomplete information. He is able to do this because he is the only one here with a statistical background.
Its fun when you're in the mood.
Mr D… Thanks for the heads up.
When my original comment which ended with "The decision process you describe is useful but I think you are misapplying it here." has now eventually been translated into me calling him, his (alleged) education, and his (alleged) living absurd I was trying to figure out how that leap was made.
I guess he took me challenging why/how one specific projection system he described would be used in baseball (and specifically calling that absurd) as a personal affront and thought that basically means that system is worthless everywhere and that baseball doesn't use ANY projection systems.
I'll stop now as my intent was not to troll and my words are being wildly manipulated and turned into strawman (apparently I now think baseball stats are unquantifiable and teams either don't hire stat/econ guys or just pay them to "jerk off" since they don't use one specific projection system)
Mr Delaware, coming from someone who trolls the board to rip people more than discuss baseball your words don't mean anything. I have no prbl with people epressing opinions based on incomplete info. I have a problem when people make arguments with huge logical holes in them and then tell other commenters that they are definitel wrong.
Art. I have a feeling you are another of MrDelaware's alter egos. However, if after my writing a virtual essay thoughtfully explaining my opinion on the matter you can only question whether I want the last word and claim I am manipulating your words… I don't know what to say. I notice you have no response for how one would go about projecting the future in another manner. The accepted projections of scouts are an informal version of what I've been referring to.
The one or two of you might note that the Orioles just hired an Econ professor to value players. Probably not going to use any tools from Econ to do so, though. Rumor is he will jerk off and whichever plaegr's picture more spunk lands on is projected to have a better future.
You didn't turn in your 10:00 assignment, Ted.
(Also, this new tendency of yours to talk about front office guys jerking off in every post is really creepy.)
Unless you have more than one person better in your rotation he's effectively your #2. The Yankees only have one more starter in the rotation right now.
Can't Noesi do just as good a job as Garcia at the back of the rotation?
Agreed. I say better. I can't see Garcia throwing 100 IP.
Luckily the Yankees have both…
The Yankees are rumored to think Noesi is similar to Yu, so it's not like they are low on Noesi. Depth is a good thing.
It really doesn't make a difference what you call the #2,3,4, and 5 starters.
#1 needs to be the best starter or the 'Ace'
#2 through 5 just need to be good or atleast consistent
No not for the rays, angels or phillies
Why does #1 matter and not the others?
I don't think what you call any of them matters.
It's too bad that Wang couldn't stay healthy after getting hurt during the interleague game. He would have been a great #2 starter behind CC.
Now he's a 3/4 starter in the Nationals rotation behind Strasburg and Zimmermann…But yeah he'd be a solid #2 starter behind CC.
Nah…he was on his way out. The trade rumors had already started to swirl. From what I recall reading, Wang wanted (or had at least hinted at wanting) a deal in the neighborhood of A.J. Burnett's and the Yanks weren't willing to go that high on him. I would have loved to trade Wang for Javy instead of Vizcaino.
If the Yankees save all this money then we can get lower ticket prices!!!
(j/k please don't supply-demand everyone to death.)
cool screenname
Why wouldn't a #2 starter just be the #31-60th highest WARs?
The neverending debate of whether its stuff or results.
i guess im just being optimistic but i say AJ is gonna have a very good year in 2012, not saying fantastic, but very good.


text:
The above map shows where vehicle-related crime, such as stolen cars, thefts from vehicles and damaged vehicles, has been reported in Roseville between Sept. 25-30. Hover over each icon to read more about each incident.
This map is put together using information from the Roseville Police Department.
Here's a look at the vehicle-related crime in Roseville between Sept. 25-30:
Tuesday, Sept. 25
Between 8:30 and 8:45 a.m. Sept. 25, someone cut a padlock and stole a leaf-blower from a landscaper's trailer parked in the 3200 block of Douglas Blvd. A suspicious silver Chevy Silverado pickup was seen being driven from the area.
Between 1:30 and 1:40 p.m. Sept. 25, someone cut a lock and stole a leaf blower from the back of a landscaper's pickup at McAnally Drive and Country Club Drive.
Wednesday, Sept. 26
Attempted vehicle burglary: At about 12:30 a.m. Sept. 26, a resident of the 3000 block of Grasmere Drive saw two teenagers trying to break into a car. They set the alarm off and ran away towards Ephingham. The incident was reported to police several hours later.
Between Sept. 26 and 28, someone went into an unlocked vehicle in the 300 block of Ivy Street and stole a stereo speaker.
Thursday, Sept. 27
Between 7:05 and 8 p.m. Sept. 27, someone broke the window of two car parked at a movie theater on Eureka Road, and took a backpack, soccer clothes, cell phones and an empty purse. A suspicious person was seen running from the area of the burglarized cars at about 8 p.m., a white male, 18-20 years old, about 5'7" with light colored hair in a buzz cut, wearing a white t-shirt and shorts.
Between 10 p.m. Sept. 27 and 4:30 a.m. Sept. 28, someone stole a red 1995 Honda Civic four-door from Marcia Way. The Citrus Heights Police Department recovered it on Sept. 28 and arrested two Sacramento County residents in connection with the theft.
Friday, Sept. 28
On the evening of Sept. 28, someone broke the window of two cars parked at a restaurant in the 1400 block of Eureka Road and stole purses from the back seats, and music CDs. One of the purses contained cash, several credit cards and the victim's ID. The victim's credit cards were soon used at a nearby business. At about 8:45 p.m., two suspicious males were seen by one of the burglarized cars. They were described as white males, about 20 years old, 6'0" tall and 200 pounds. They drove away in a gray late-model Toyota, Nissan or Honda 4-door sedan, possibly with a spoiler.
Between 9 and 10 p.m. Sept. 28, someone smashed the window of a car parked at a fitness center in the 5100 block of Foothills Blvd., and took a leather bag from the back seat containing a couple of flash drives.
Overnight Sept. 28/29, someone broke the window of a car parked in an apartment complex at 701 Gibson Drive, and stole a book of coupons. Fortunately the owner hadn't left anything else of value in the car.
Between 11 p.m. Sept. 28 and 6 a.m. Sept. 29, someone stole a white 1999 Ford F250 pickup from the 1000 block of South Bluff Drive. On September 30, CHP found the vehicle with some parts missing in the north Sacramento area.
Saturday, Sept. 29
Between 5:30 and 10:30 pm. Sept. 29, someone went into an unlocked car in a lot in the 1900 block of Taylor Road, and stole a purse with the victim's credit cards, ID cards and checks.
Sunday, Sept. 30
Between 1 and 3 p.m. Sept. 30, someone pried the lock of a car parked at a restaurant in the 300 block of North Sunrise Avenue, and took a purse and a backpack from the back seat, and a portable GPS system from the dashboard. The purse contained gift cards, cash, ID, check books and other valuables.
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Programs - Waldorf Education
Waldorf Education
Today's children belong to a future of rapid change. They will need to be dynamic, resilient individuals with an ongoing thirst for learning. They must be able to do more than operate machines and manipulate data; they must be able to navigate complex social and intellectual problems.
From the idyllic early childhood classrooms to the rigors of the middle school years, River Valley Waldorf School prepares students to meet this future. Using the comprehensive, multidimensional Waldorf curriculum, our skilled faculty foster intellectual achievement coupled with the creative thinking and emotional intelligence necessary to navigate tomorrow's complex problems. They promote physical vitality and the will to persevere in the face of adversity. And they develop spiritual or moral depth together with the sense of respect and responsibility to effect positive change.
One of the main cornerstones of Waldorf education -- and one that differentiates Waldorf from public and most other education systems -- is the intention to provide the right experience at the right time, when a student is physically, emotionally, socially and intellectually ready. Then, by integrating math, science, arts, languages and movement – students become fully engaged in learning. The Waldorf curriculum begins gently and builds a foundation that is deep, broad and sturdy, from which our students can soar.


text: To avoid the imposition of accrued penalties, you must remit the business tax application and payment on or before the due date on your notice. This date is always fourteen (14) days after the date of the notice. The delinquency date is the first day the penalty will be applied.


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Punctuation is important, even in tattoos
Tuesday night I went out to UCSB with my friend Jennifer to see Rufus Wainwright. It was a great show, it was just Rufus solo, and he seems like a dear person who was born with/has carefully developed a tremendous vocal range as well as nice, shaggy hair and bare feet and a sparkly scarf, and honestly, sitting there I felt like it would have been okay if he just decided to sing all his songs, forever, and I could just stay there and listen and feel like it was a fine use of the rest of my life. If saying this doesn't put too far much ballast in the hull of my Rufus Boat: the man totally refreshed my faith in art. When an artist opens up his or her heart on stage like that — if we're receptive, our hearts open up in response. Maybe you get that feeling through religion, or shopping, or being in love, but a really skillful songwriter can unlock all those little cabinets inside you. Or cabinets inside me, at least, I don't know what you have inside of you; maybe your big inner ironing cupboard is always ajar, your iron steaming, your spray starch bottle full. (We have one of those old-fashioned ironing-board cupboards in our kitchen — with no board in it, unfortunately — so when I was thinking of something you might have in your chest that wasn't what I have, which is 26 sticky little typesetter's drawers, but instead just one, big available thing, ironing board cupboard is what came to mind.)
At one point Rufus covered his face with his hand and bent over the microphone and mumbled, "I spend way too much time Googling myself," and we all chuckled at his shameful secret. And then he mumbled even more shamefully, "And then I read the comments." As someone who has lived part of her life on the Internet for — oh! Next Monday will be my eleventh blog anniversary! So, for eleven years I've been doing this Internet self-exposure thing, and if there's one thing I've stopped doing it's Googling myself. I just don't want to know who thinks I'm an idiot, it's not going to do me any good unless you really have a plan to help me with all my problems, then I'm totally willing to listen. But you're going to have to make an appointment. In conclusion, I don't want to be responsible for any comments that might hurt another person's feelings, so if you read this and feel inclined to tell the world what you really think about Rufus Wainwright, make sure it's in rhymed couplets.
Driving up Chapala Street
Me: "Look at the tattoo on that guy's forearm: Love Laughter Light."
Jackson (cupping his hands around his mouth): "YOU FORGOT THE COMMAS."
On Instagram I am Toasteroven, I forget why
Lastly, because I'm finishing this in a dreadful hurry to get Jackson to school on time: I am reading the new J.K. Rowling book, The Casual Vacancy. Is anybody else reading it? Because I feel like I'm the only person in the world who thinks it's terrific. I will let you know if that opinion still holds when I'm done, but so far, so good.


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Archive for March 2012
When is bad really bad in Sales? A disgruntled customer's view.
My own recent experience just made me realise, again, how important the personal brand of the sales person is to the customer and the buying relationship.
In this case, I was the customer who bought some advertising. The sales rep arrived in typical flush fashion, all high heels and big hair to signify her role in the media industry, and with lots to say about what would be best for me and my business. I listened, asked for advice, listened and asked for advice. This particular advertising medium was out of my frame of reference so I needed all the help I could get.
I placed the order, and in due course I had an email with my proof. I made a few little changes, assuming that what was delivered was right and appropriate given the detailed brief I gave, and also implementing the trust on my part that my request for advice was heeded.
Now I know that advertising can be hit and miss, so my expectations were pretty well-managed.
The first issue developed when the campaign started without me being advised of the date, so my back office systems were not quite ready yet. I complained, they apologised.
Off we went again, and 4 weeks into the 8 weeks campaign I had a call to see how it was going, and also to offer me some more advertising in a different medium. It wasn't going great so I wasn't going to buy any more advertising! But she did offer to make some changes to the current ad to hopefully improve the response rates. I emailed my new information, left messages and even emailed the rep to talk to her. I was ignored for over a week!
When she did eventually call, it was full of excuses about how her iPhone had let her down. Frankly, I didn't want excuses. I was mortified that this sort of stuff still happens in modern-day sales! Especially when the solution she offered involved paying a lot more to keep the same ineffective ad running.
Eventually, I got to speak to the Sales Manager who was very quick to defend their business principles, but also pointed out that the ad was grossly inappropriate for the medium. I respected how well she defended both her team and her employer. But I was also surprised that, as the Sales Manager claimed to be a recruitment expert, and given my repeated requests for advice, I didn't get to speak to her at all in the process? I felt even worse when she said another recruitment agency had taken the same package deal and had a fabulous response. Really? Why were they given different advice to me then, if we were obviously paying exactly the same price for exactly the same deal?
In the end, I am getting some of my money back. But the damage this has done to my perception of this organisation is huge. I will be very dubious to trust anything they say, ever again, regardless of the Sales Manager's claim that they are an ethical business.
I believe that this is all down to communication within their business internally, and the lack of the Sales Rep's ability to establish credibility after she had promised the earth but failed to deliver. As sales people, we operate hugely on a basis of trust with our clients. The client buys both the wider branding of the seller, and the personal brand of the sales rep. If the two brands do not line up, there is a real likelihood of a disgruntled result at the end. To the client, that person sitting in front of him making the promises represents the company and this is were buying decisions are made and later, regretted.
The true mettle of any sales person is tested when things go wrong. It is easy to manage affairs when it's all hunky dory. However, a real professional sales person will put his own pride in his pocket to make sure the customer gets what he pays for. And this includes pro-actively ensuring that the customer gets the best pre-sales service as possible, to try and avoid mishaps in the first place.
Communication, at each step of the process, is vital to make sure the customer knows what the challenges are so he can make an objective decision, When things go wrong, emotions come into play and it is far harder to recover damaged relationships than to manage problems when they are still small.
But most of all, don't ever make promises that you can't keep. Forewarn the client of potential issues. And if you can see that they are making a mistake, compare the commission you may lose on the deal with the respect you will earn from being honest. The latter will get you referrals and probably even more business deals. Only going for the sale, at any cost, will end in tears in the long run.
Or have I missed something, somewhere, in this wonderful commercial world we live in?
Guide to job hunting: How to deal with complications after accepting a job offer
Recently, Anthony commented on my blog post about job offers with his story:
"I recently had an interview with a company for a vacancy advertised, which occurred a couple of days after having fallen off a ladder and injuring my leg while doing a chore at home. I was succesful at interview and at the end of the interview I had shown them the swelling to my leg. The following day, the agency confirmed that the company I had the interview with was very impressed with my interview and offered me the job, which I verbally accepted over the phone. I received a letter from the agency confirming my start date and time with the company for the permanent position. Over the weekend before I was due to start my leg injury worsened so that I could not walk on my leg, and by Sunday night I was in pain all night. My wife took me to hospital early Monday morning. We finally managed to leave the hospital and be home by Midday, which meant I missed the start time of my new job for 9am. But my wife visited the company on her way to work and told them about my problem. They advised it should all be fine and okay to start in a weeks time, in accordance with the advice of the hospital to rest the leg for that minimum period of time. However, I discovered almost at the end of the week that the company had in fact filled the position with another candidate supplied by the agency and had withdrawn their offer to me. I was grossly unhappy at this decision, and the agency advised me that as I did not email or phone them on the Sunday or Monday whilst at hospital, the position was then given to someone else."
My point of view
The problem here is communication.
When accepting the job offer verbally and agreeing a start date and time, Anthony had entered into a legally binding contract with the employer. This contract is equally binding to both parties. It is equally as important for the company to conform (By paying the agreed salary, offering the agreed terms, etc) as it is for Anthony to keep to his part of the deal (Arrive on the agreed start date and time, do the job as best he can, etc.)
Anthony's injury made it impossible for him to deliver his end of the bargain, and this put his contract at risk. If he called the company BEFORE the agreed date and time to let them know of his problem, they would probably have been very amenable to postponing it. The agency should have been instrumental in this – After all, they facilitated the contract. However, if the agency didn't know about his problem then they would of course assume that everything was fine, given the short time scales. Anthony's failure in communicating his problem in time meant that he broke the contract by not arriving as contractually agreed. The fact that he sent his wife to sort it out later probably added insult to injury – The company employed Anthony, not his wife!
There also seems to be a lack of communication on the part of the agency, who obviously knew that the offer was being withdrawn without communicating this clearly to Anthony. As for the employer: they acted in good faith by making the offer because they had a business problem to solve, and they needed a person in the job. Regardless of the reason why, the fact that Anthony did not arrive on time and then also did not advise them BEFORE THE EVENT of his problem, would have tainted their view of him. They acted fully within their rights, as long as they withdrew the contract officially.
- An employment contract is equally binding on both parties. If you want the job, you have to honour your part of the deal
- The interview process really only finishes at the end of your probationary period. UK Employment Law favours the employer during the first year of your employment, or whatever probationary period is agreed in the contract. Until then, you are at risk of the contract being terminated through notice if you do not deliver what you agreed to deliver. Equally, you can terminate the contract by resigning if you do not feel satisfied with everything.
- If you are serious about working for a company, it is vital to establish a good and respectful relationship. Dealing with problematic situations is a good measure of a person's ability to organise, control and manage themselves. If you create a wrong impression when something goes wrong, all the good things you did during the interview will be negated.
- Communicate all the time. Build a positive relationship with your Recruiter. They want you to do well and will help you when problems arise, but they can only help if they know what is going on. Likewise, if you have a long notice period, keep in touch to let them know everything is okay. Communication channels can never be too open!
- If things do go wrong, handle them yourself. Getting wives and family members involved is a sure fire way of losing respect with your prospective employer.
Guide to Job Hunting – Common mistakes people make at interview
Recently, I was asked to contribute to a PR piece for the IRP. I hope my answers to these questions make for good advice!
1. What is the most common mistake job seekers make at the interview?
They oversell! Sometimes, people are so hyped up about the interview that they forget about being themselves. Being too nervous can demolish a person's ability to present their best attributes. They don't listen to questions properly, they assume they know what must be said and they often pitch their approach at entirely the wrong level, because they are too nervous to pick up the non-verbal signs the interview gives. Taking it easy, one step at a time, breathing evenly and taking charge of our nerves is the best interview advice I can possibly give anyone.
2. What is the most annoying mistake job seekers tend to make?
Making assumptions about the role, and not preparing properly. Often, candidates attend interviews without so much as reading the job spec or looking at the company website and it creates the wrong impression at interview. I spend a lot of time getting candidates prepared for interviews but I am still amazed at how many would, when asked what they know about the company or role, answer : "Not much." There is no excuse for not preparing properly for an interview. Flying by the seat of your pants is a risky strategy that often backfires in the interview context, resulting in wasted opportunities.
3. How big a mistake does the job seeker have to make to put you off hiring them?
It depends on what the mistake is. Most candidates only get one opportunity at every job role, because they are competing with other candidates and it is a game of comparison. If a person is perfectly suited for the role the process sight be a bit more forgiving. But if they are in a heavily contested recruitment process, then getting it wrong can be lethal if everyone else gets it right because it can result in them being screened out.
4. Have you ever employed someone who made a pretty huge mistake in an interview – how did that turn out?
I once had a senior manager totally blank out during an interview because he was so nervous. He wanted the job so much and tried so hard, that he wore himself out. He called back the next day and we managed to get him another chance to interview because there were very few suitable candidates in the process. This time around, he was a lot more controlled, did an excellent interview and eventually accepted the offer. Five years later, he is still with the same company regardless of the wobbly start.
5. Do you give feedback to job seekers if they make a mistake?
I always try to give constructive feedback to allow the candidate an opportunity to learn from his experience. It is not easy to accept negative feedback and sometimes candidates can be quite defensive and even aggressive about it, but it is all meant to help them in the long run.
6. If someone makes a mistake at an interview, do you try and turn that around to try and get the best out of a candidate – how do you do that?
If it is an honest mistake resulting from a misunderstanding or a practical issue, like getting the time wrong for the interview or going to the wrong place, then I am always willing to reconsider, However, if it is something that could have been avoided, such as not preparing a task that was required for the interview, or being rude or disrespectful to the interviewers, then it is unlikely that they might get another chance.
7. How much attention do you pay to things such as body language?
The non-verbal elements of the interview are of overriding importance. An interview is a discussion and positive non-verbal communication is a key part of establishing a positive impression and a trust relationship. I like candidates who shake hands confidently, look me in the eye and display confidence in their own abilities before the interview even starts. The candidate's demeanor, how they engage, whether they smile and sit upright or cowl and slump in the chair – These are all crucial to the hiring decision and can be the key to being successful or not.


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top stories
ACCA responds to Lords' audit inquiry
- Criticism of IFRS misguided and could have serious implications
- Role of audit needs to be strengthened
ACCA welcomes many of the recommendations of the House of Lords' Select Committee on Economic Affairs' report Auditors: Market Concentration and their Role.
ACCA is delighted that the Lords have recognised that audit adds value for businesses and their stakeholders. ACCA agrees with points made in the report that the role of audit needs to be strengthened and agrees with the recommendation that audit committees should hold discussions with principal shareholders.
However, ACCA warns that the Lords' criticisms of IFRS and its effect on audit quality are misguided and could have potentially serious implications internationally. Additionally, ACCA believes that aspects of the recommendations require further clarification.
'We welcome the report and agree with many of its observations and recommendations,' says Helen Brand, ACCA's chief executive, who gave evidence during the inquiry. 'We are particularly pleased that on several occasions, ACCA's own recommendations and evidence have been taken on board and specifically referenced by the report. We would agree that more competition is needed in the audit market, but as a strong supporter of what audit can bring to business we are glad that the investors and other participants in the inquiry acknowledged the value and importance of audit in the economy.'
Brand adds: 'It is very pleasing to see that the Lords have recommended that the audit should expand in scope to provide broader, more up-to-date assurance on matters such as risk management, the business model, and the business review. ACCA also believes reform would do much to reduce the "expectations gap" and meet stakeholders' needs.
'The Lords also refer to our call for action on audit liability, which our own global research has shown is a deadweight on audit innovation. It is encouraging that the Lords have also heeded calls to address the issue of restrictive covenants. We strongly support the suggestion that these two issues - audit liability and restrictive covenants - be investigated by the Office of Fair Trading (OFT). Action in these areas will do much to increase opportunities for competition in the audit market.'
ACCA supports other observations made by the Lords. They have rightly rejected the idea of compulsory rotation and joint audits, both of which have been floated by the European Commission but which ACCA believes would actually do little to increase audit market competition. Proposals for risk committees in banks and more regular dialogue between bank auditors and regulators should also be supported.
However, there are certain recommendations and observations made by the Lords with which ACCA cannot agree.
'We are most worried by the Lords' conclusion that the introduction of IFRS has led directly to a reduction in audit quality,' explains Brand. 'ACCA does not believe this to be the case.
'The Lords have quoted many eminent participants in the inquiry process who have disagreed with the Lords' assertion. ACCA does not believe the banking crisis was predominantly caused by accounting issues and we are not convinced that IFRS provides less scope for auditors to exercise prudent judgement, as is alleged.
'IFRS includes an overriding requirement that the financial statements should present fairly the position and performance of a company. An audit has always been, and continues to be, more than a report on compliance with a set of accounting standards. The Lords have overemphasised the differences between UK GAAP and IFRS in this respect.'
Brand continues: 'It is important to note that the specific IFRS weakness identified by the Lords - around expected rather than incurred loan losses - is already being remedied. The recommendation that UK GAAP should be continued ignores the fact that the key accounting standards in UK GAAP - on financial instruments - are virtually identical to existing IFRS. Any shortcomings of the accounts and audits of banks should not be either a reason to deny global standards to other companies or a justification of continuing to impose on other UK businesses the extra costs of maintaining both systems.
'The criticisms made of IFRS are not helpful given that most countries have now committed themselves to adopting IFRS as the preferred reporting framework for listed companies, and the US is preparing to make its own decision as to the status of IFRS later this year.'
Regarding the Lords' conclusions on non-audit services, Brand says: 'We disagree with the report's conclusions. While we accept that there is a strong case for auditors to be excluded from internal audit work, we do not feel that tax advisory work should be included in any ban, and certainly not for smaller entities. Most companies will feel aggrieved at the prospect of having to take on another firm of advisers to do tax work, something that seems costly and unnecessary.'
Concluding, Brand says: 'Lastly, the report calls for a reduction in the audit requirement for smaller companies in order to "lower regulatory costs". The Department of Business, Innovation, and Skills (BIS) has also recently suggested this, but both the Lords and BIS have failed to recognise that there would be a downside to removing external checks on small companies' finances. Audit must not be so lazily confused with red tape.'
- ends -
Notes to editors
- ACCA (the Association of Chartered Certified Accountants) is the global body for professional accountants. We aim to offer business-relevant, first-choice qualifications to people of application, ability and ambition around the world who seek a rewarding career in accountancy, finance and management.
- We support our 140,000 members and 404,000 students in 170 countries, helping them to develop successful careers in accounting and business, with the skills required by employers. We work through a network of over 80 offices and centres and more than 8,000 Approved Employers worldwide, who provide high standards of employee learning and development. Through our public interest remit, we promote appropriate regulation of accounting and conduct relevant research to ensure accountancy continues to grow in reputation and influence.
- Founded in 1904, ACCA has consistently held unique core values: opportunity, diversity, innovation, integrity and accountability. We believe that accountants bring value to economies in all stages of development and seek to develop capacity in the profession and encourage the adoption of global standards. Our values are aligned to the needs of employers in all sectors and we ensure that through our qualifications, we prepare accountants for business. We seek to open up the profession to people of all backgrounds and remove artificial barriers, innovating our qualifications and delivery to meet the diverse needs of trainee professionals and their employers.
For further information please contact:
Helen Thompson/Nick Cosgrove, ACCA Newsroom
+44 (0)20 7059 5759 / 5989
+44 (0)7725 498654 / +44 (0)7963 496144