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Topic: DBMA Knife and Anti Knife (Read 4758 times)
Power User
Posts: 30677
DBMA Knife and Anti Knife
May 24, 2010, 10:41:17 PM »
Woof All:
As I discuss in the vid-clip "Knife Ruminations" on our website, I have a certain reluctance to teach offensive knife openly. I'm not sure this makes sense in a world of guns, but it seems to me that training offensive knife calls to the darkness is a special way.
The Die Less Often material is ANTI-knife and is intended to give the best odds possible against the most like kind of attack in the American environment: Crazed forehanded thrusting (and slashing) either untrained or trained, as in the Prison Sewing Machine variations. My thought here is that the bad guys already know these things, and that I help the cause of the good to help good people acquire a more realistic sense of what they might really face.
This is an example of the DBMA teaching principle "Teach Primal Probabilities First".
In that context of course there needs to be a block of material to respond to the Ice Pick Caveman based attacks. I have had a couple of random techniques that I like, but frankly the material was not up to the standard that I think I achieved with the anti PSM material. While part of the challenge was to maintain the "Consistency across categories" concept so as to minimize reaction time, the simple fact was that I did not have a matrix and grid the way I do with the anti-PSM material , , , until today.
Of course the material will need to be pressure tested further, but two seasoned students and I aired things out fairly well today and my doggy nose tells me that today was a moment of satori.
The Adventure continues!
Guro Crafty
PS: This past Friday I had a very intriguing day being trained in the very interesting Piper Knife system of South Africa. One of the moves that I learned on Friday appears in the new anti-Ice Pick Caveman material.
Power User
Posts: 30677
Re: DBMA Knife and Anti Knife
Reply #1 on:
May 24, 2010, 10:42:48 PM »
Perhaps also worth mentioning is that our "Kali Tudo"(tm) game known as "the Four Headed Snake" of which the Dracula Variations is a subset, is based upon double icepick knife.
Power User
Posts: 299
Re: DBMA Knife and Anti Knife
Reply #2 on:
May 25, 2010, 06:58:15 PM »
I look forward to hearing your insights ...
It will seem difficult at first, but everything is difficult at first.
Miyamoto Musashi.
Posts: 35
Re: DBMA Knife and Anti Knife
Reply #3 on:
May 30, 2010, 05:50:19 PM »
Quote from: maija on May 25, 2010, 06:58:15 PM
I look forward to hearing your insights ...
As do I Marc.
Power User
Posts: 30677
Re: DBMA Knife and Anti Knife
Reply #4 on:
May 31, 2010, 09:59:53 AM »
When it comes to folders of the size typically carried here in the US, for many years I preferred a hammer grip for the knife and therefore chose knives with handles that favored this grip. Part of the reason that I preferred hammer grip was that I got (and probably still do get) better results with it in what in DBMA we call "Sport Knife Dueling". Because I suspect the SKD mindset informs the thinking of many people in martial arts for Real World application more than they realize (which was certainly the case for me) I'd like to share a bit of my own evolution here.
I begin by making clear that, despite the playfulness of the name, I do not make fun of SKD. SKD was a staple of my training some 25 years ago with Paul Vunak who used it for the development for certain important attributes such as footwork, timing, reflexes, etc. Furthermore, in the Dog Brothers we have always used SKD as a way to open our "DB Gatherings of the Pack" for additional purpose of kicking the day off, getting fighters warmed up for the stickfights, letting fighters assess each other a bit before stickfighting, etc. (The Euros do not do SKD at their DB Gatherings.)
In short SKD dueling can be lots of fun for young males into ritual hierarchical ritual combat AND it can serve quite well in many situations which force one to pull a knife. And these knife skills can be very directly applicable to the real world should one need to use a knife to keep threat at bay-- though do note that brandishing a knife at an unarmed person can present interesting legal questions. I'm not saying these questions can't be answered with the right fact pattern e.g. a middle aged desk jockey being menaced by a guy whose face is covered with MS-13 tattoos intuitively seems to me like a relatively easy sell
but often the line between legal and illegal brandishing can be quite blurred.
But I digress , , , Returning to the discussion,
That said it does present interesting challenges for those interested in using this training method for real world application because IMHO what we do in the adrenal state of ritual combat will tend to appear in real world combat as well. (This is precisely the reason I develop our "Kali Tudo" tm-- so we can adrenalize our empty handed fighting with Kali Silat with the result that our unarmed and armed fighting are the same idiom of movement.)
But what if the worst case scenarios of the real world feature behaviors other than those assumed by "proper" SKD?
In the real world two people facing off with real knives drawn is really rare. As the actors here in Los Angeles would say "What is the motive here in this scene?" What would motivate someone to stay and have a knife fight? And how likely is it that the other person would be equally motivated? In prison I suppose leaving might not really be an option, but most of us are not in prison-- and in prison it is usually an ambush, often by superior numbers, anyway.
If we answer the question by assuming two men both in a killing rage e.g. in prison or on the battlefied, then we are likely to see, in the immortal words of someone with whom I once had an interesting conversation, the behavior pattern of "Pump him until he is dead, then bind your wounds" (Hereinafter "Pump and bind" or PAB). The problem though for SKD is if we bring PAB to it then we are not developing the attributes intended by the training nor or we acting rationally like the semi-normal people that we are for KD is not something rational people do in our time and place in our culture.
Thus in SKD we are left with the inherently blurry lines concerning the definition of realistic behavior for it. Most people will leave in the presence of a knife, but if we assume staying e.g. a desperate robber, then we can say most people would leave after getting slashed or stabbed. On the other hand, of the kind of people who in this world are genuinely willing and motivated to engage against a knife, then most of them will not leave after getting wounded, for their mindset is Pump and Bind-- they expect to be cut and stabbed and to survive the process of killing you , , , or they don't care if they die as long as they kill you.
Good luck and my rules of engagement (avoid stupid people in stupid places doing stupid things and what your think of me is none of my business) have combined to my having absolutely no personal experience in this whatsover. Success! That said my readings, conversations with those not so lucky, and various youtube clips have persuaded me that many people do not realize that they have been slashed or stabbed until after the fight is over. This can include even mortal wounds.
Thus we can have someone of evil intent unstopped and undeterred by what SKD might consider "good scores". In SKD I might be busily defanging the snake by slashing at the arm of my opponent but if some cranked out gangbanger in colder weather wearing heavier clothing is coming to get me, well then those slashes that I thought would stop him and keep him outside my bubble might not work.
Thus it is that I have come to the thinking that when using a small knife (e.g. one that is not going to lop off hands) that the power and impact of the strike matter and for me ice pick does a better job than hammer grip.
Thus for Kali Tudo, I look principally to double stick and double ice pick knife.
Frequent Poster
Posts: 58
Re: DBMA Knife and Anti Knife
Reply #5 on:
June 01, 2010, 04:50:14 PM »
Hello! New Member Here! I love the forum, so far. I dislike my first post being in the nature of 'no crap, there I was' As someone who teaches both the art and self-defense aspects of martial arts, I found myself recently coming to two realizations. First, my students are increasingly more willing to take what I say at face value. While I have teachers of my own, I am always looking for others who can help me sort through the BS of my own ego. That is what I have come to DBMA looking for. Secondly, at at some point, a student or even someone I have had a casual conversation with is going to gamble their life on something I have said or demonstrated. With those two factors combined, I feel obligated to search for new questions and answers.
During a discussion of knife work while testing out the material in DLO1 & 2, I realized that I could not remember the exact number of knife-play situations I had been involved in. I think it is 4 or 5. I have certainly witnessed several more. The details do not matter suffice it to say that 50 percent of the time, I was cut. All of them that I have been involved in or witness to, save one, could have easily been avoided by not being stupid or insecure.
I will say that I am from 'The South' and have seen the redneck barfight escalate into a knife fight. Alcohol is almost always involved. Posturing. An exhange of blows. One side starts winning. The losing side gets scared and goes for a knife. Most working men in the south have knives with them. Suddenly, there are two knives out with people who are already engaged in a fight. And no one is willing to back down. And with small folding knives, people get cut a lot and don't stop or even die.
One story that a friend of mine was involved in that I will tell, because I think it is relevant to offensive knife tactics.
Man A is riding an ATV at a local recreation area. He tries to take a hill and flips. He's banged up but mostly dazed. Man B begins heckling Man A. Man A says a few things he should not. Man B comes charging over and hits Man A hard enough to drive him to the ground and break his jaw. Man A's jaw had to be rebuilt. Man A is now in a fight with Man B who is capable of crippling or killing him. Man A pulls small pocket knife and commences going to work. Man B is hospitalized. Man B survives only because somewhere in the stabbing process, Man A's knife breaks. Man A is arrested for attempted murder but the jury finds in his favor.
The points: Deadly fights show up suddenly. That scenario's opening could have easily been a rush hour traffic fender-bender of the kind that most people who live in a large city have been in. Two, when someone is crippled in the opening salvo, they have to quickly equalize and neutralize.
Three: Directly to the point of the discussion: Knives, especially small folders, break when applied violently against a hard object. ie, a human skull or hip bone. Or the pavement or a brick wall or a car hood.
Good luck and keep teaching!
Power User
Posts: 11852
Re: DBMA Knife and Anti Knife
Reply #6 on:
June 01, 2010, 04:55:24 PM »
That's why if it's not worth killing over, dying over, getting crippled over, going to prison over, it's not worth fighting over.
Power User
Posts: 11852
Re: DBMA Knife and Anti Knife
Reply #7 on:
June 01, 2010, 05:13:42 PM »
You never know who you are dealing with, although prison ink can be a clue.
Re: DBMA Knife and Anti Knife
Reply #8 on:
June 02, 2010, 05:34:03 AM »
anybody walking up with that kind of lopsided face is going to make me very wary. I understand that that kind of lopsidedness to the eyes and face is a sign of stroke, severe concussion or psychosis (drug induced or otherwise).
Power User
Posts: 11852
Re: DBMA Knife and Anti Knife
Reply #9 on:
June 02, 2010, 09:08:44 AM »
No correlation between facial asymmetry and psychosis. Keep in mind that some of the most dangerous individuals I've ever dealt with had no physical indicators or "aura of evil" indicating what they were. Often, sociopaths are quite charismatic and glib.
Frequent Poster
Posts: 58
Re: DBMA Knife and Anti Knife
Reply #10 on:
June 02, 2010, 10:49:05 AM »
I would agree with G M. The one person I have met face to face that I am 98 percent certain is a true sociopath is charming, friendly, glib and totally without any true empathy or remorse that I have ever seen. I know what a liar the man is but there is nothing in the fellow's body language to give it away. I just have enough experience with this person to assume that if his mouth is uttering words, he is lying about something.
Re: DBMA Knife and Anti Knife
Reply #11 on:
June 04, 2010, 04:53:46 AM »
That's it gang up
. I am still going to be wary until I figure what is up with the guy. Heck It could be a simple effort to distort the booking picture to make him harder to identify too. Until I figure that out it is going to be an "arms length" stituation.
Power User
Posts: 30677
Re: DBMA Knife and Anti Knife
Reply #12 on:
June 04, 2010, 07:55:21 AM »
I'm not quite sure what the last 5 posts have to do with knives, but I suppose we are dogs; and dogs are not the most linear of animals when left to their own devices
Power User
Posts: 11852
Re: DBMA Knife and Anti Knife
Reply #13 on:
June 04, 2010, 08:56:45 AM »
The best anti-knife technique is to avoid the person who would stab you.
Frequent Poster
Posts: 58
Re: DBMA Knife and Anti Knife
Reply #14 on:
June 04, 2010, 12:07:42 PM »
I think the point is that we are supposed to be discussing potential offensive knife techniques as well as anti-knife. In light of Guru Crafty's original post, I've been pondering the knife techniques I might use if I have to cripple or kill quickly, especially WRT the lack of immediate effect. In some ways it reminds me of the problems that are run into with small, fast moving bullets. The 5.56mm is lethal enough (avoiding that debate) but often not in an immediate fashion. The same thing, especially with a pocket knife. It is lethal but it takes time for someone's body to realize that they are dead.
I was thinking that it might require a combination of techniques. A cut or stab, followed by an immediate shove, driving knee, kick, shoulder strike or sweep. Get in the lethal blows with the knife and immediately drive them away with some other technique to give them time to die. Either that or immediately go into a grappling control position of some sort to give them time for the effects to occur. I know in the US Army training guidelines, a kidney stab is suggested. It takes longer for someone to die but the pain is usually intense enough to be incapacitating. Having had 2 kidney stones, I do not immediately disagree with that statement but I've never known or seen anyone stabbed in the kidneys to get first hand evidence.
Frequent Poster
Posts: 58
Re: DBMA Knife and Anti Knife
Reply #15 on:
June 04, 2010, 04:24:25 PM »
I apologize for the lack of coherence of the last post. I was at work and made the mistake of rushing it instead of waiting until I had more time. On to the offensive knife discussion.
Premise One: We find ourselves in a deadly-force situation in which we are armed with a knife. For one reason or another, retreat or avoidance is not an *immediate* option.
Premise Two: We are attempting to establish a simplified model of a single knife's use and effectiveness so that we can begin laying out principles, theories, tactics and options.
Starting with those two baselines, let us first look at the knife. One streamlined way of looking at a typical small knife (in the 2-4" range) is as a force modifier to the empty hand. It adds slightly to the mass and length of the lever. In an icepick grip, it can function much like a closed first. In a hammer grip, it can function much like a finger strike. The knife's blade will take the energy found in the hand and focus it into a very small area. This means that a given amount of energy will penetrate better than the empty hand but transfer less momentum to the target. This reduced transfer is an important factor to remember when thinking about following strikes or when dealing with a stop-hit scenario such as a bull-rush charge. It does one little good to neutralize the threat if the opponent's energy carries us out into the road in front of a speeding car.
Treating the knife as a particularly deadly hand, we can break down immediate options. The starting point is the initial opening exchange. For simple illustrative purposes, we are starting with knife in right hand vs right handed opponent. After that, the variables grow exponentially. In initiating our offensive action, do we wish to use the knife as an opener to clear the path to the vital targets or do we prefer to use the knife as a finisher?
Using the knife as an opener, we are probably attempting to disable one of the opponents limbs in order to both remove it from our attack line to more vital targets and reduce its ability to inflict damage upon us. Example: Cut to the lead hand followed by front thrust kick to groin/bladder.
Using the knife as a finisher leaves us with using one of our other limbs to to set up our attack with the knife. Example: The classic jab and grab followed by much stabbing and cutting.
Option Three: Use the knife as both opener and finisher in a rapid sequence. Example: cutting inside sweep to lead hand that becomes a stab to liver or kidneys. Option Three is essentially a variation of Option 1: Knife as Opener because we are still using the knife primarily to remove a threat and open our attack line.
This is meant as a starting point to the model and deliberately leaves out considerations such as reach, oppenent's weapons and posture. The point is to look at what the small knife can and cannot do. When I started really thinking about this a couple of days ago, I realized that I did not have a real practical model for what truly happens when a dangerous opponent is cut. One of the ideas I had for assembling the model is from bowhunting. Assuming a hunting broadhead acts much like a small knife, there should be considerable of literature on what happens when a large predator is struck in the vitals. For a human analog, possibly start with experiences of those who bowhunt wild pigs.
Something to start with, anyway.
Power User
Posts: 30677
Re: DBMA Knife and Anti Knife
Reply #16 on:
June 08, 2010, 08:10:47 AM »
Those are good posts James. Any comments any one?
Frequent Poster
Posts: 58
Re: DBMA Knife and Anti Knife
Reply #17 on:
June 08, 2010, 03:52:55 PM »
If it will help start a discussion, I will throw out some scenarios to help explain why we might be fighting offensively with a knife. These scenarios are based on real events with the information changed a bit to protect the guilty and the stupid. Do not get too caught up on the specific details. The scenarios are meant as brainstorm exercises. In all scenarios, you have a clip folding knife or small fixed blade attached to your pocket or belt or wherever you like to keep it.
Scenario 1. You are visiting a friend at his home in an isolated subdivision at night. The lighting is not terrible but not great, either. You knock on his door but there is no answer. Deciding he is not home, you start back to your car. Out of the darkness between your friend's house and the neighboring house, comes a figure. When the light hits, you can tell that it is not your friend. The man approaches, pointing a flashlight in your eyes. Dazzled a bit, you do not see the pistol in his hand until he is within 10 feet and is still approaching. The man begins to berate you, falsely accusing you of having run over one of his dogs. He is furious, sweating and his eyes look a bit wild. The pupils are dilated. He steps towards you and begins brining the pistol up to you.
Scenario 2: You are about to start pumping gas at a station. You've just slid your credit car but have not started pumping yet. A reasonably clean man wearing jeans and a t-shirt approaches you with an unlit cigarette and starts to ask you for a light. As you are about to respond, you catch a reflection off your car window and see someone approaching from the opposite direction with a piece of rebar raised over his head to caveman whack you. Your car is blocking one lateral and the pump is blocking the other lateral.
Scenario 3: You are leaving the mall's movie theatre after watching a late movie with your date/spouse/child. As you walk to your car, you have to pass a concrete island that contains one of the mall's electrical substations. From around behind it comes a large, screaming man spraying ammonia at you from a cheap spray bottle before he makes a grab for your wife and her purse. You are half blind and feel like you are hacking up a lung.
Scenario 4: You are walking along the street near a park where a bunch of pre-teenagers are playing soccer. The ball comes bouncing roughly in your direction. A few of the teenagers come to get the ball. As the pick it up, they notice you. And they begin to circle you, demanding money and cigarettes. One of them pulls a knife and and threatens you.
Think of these scenarios as reasons why you might need to go into an offensive tactical posture with a knife. I would not be too concerned with specific techniques. I would think about how you have to engage and why.
Posts: 3
Re: DBMA Knife and Anti Knife
Reply #18 on:
June 12, 2010, 10:56:43 PM »
The way that a knife duel is most likely to happen for us (good, law-abiding people) is when attacked by a knife wielding attacker, where we are carrying our own knife (and not carrying our pistol.)
If we are able to survive the initial attack, and access our weapon a couple of things are then likely: we run away successfully, he sees our knife and realizes that he is not going to win easily (he doesn't want a 'fair fight') and leaves, or now committed to the attack (for whatever reasons) he is still trying to hurt us.
For those of us who carry a defensive knife and know the dog-catcher or have other skills the is not unthinkable event -- even though knife duels may be rare, they are going to be more likely for those of us with skills and knives than for the average person.
Of course a second reason for offensive knife skills is to "give good attacks" to our partners who need to practice their own defensive skills -- we do not want to be in the practice of testing our techniques against poorly executed or unrealistic attacks.
One of the strengths of what DBMA does (as well as the Suarez folks and the AMOK! folks of Tom Sotis) is to test all proposed solutions (eventually) against full speed QUALITY attacks by a fully resisting partner who is physically capable (e.g., young, strong, fit, fast).
If we don't give good knife, we cannot be sure that our partners are learning and using good defensive techniques.
Power User
Posts: 30677
Re: DBMA Knife and Anti Knife
Reply #19 on:
June 13, 2010, 04:57:52 PM »
I can see I need to clarify some things here.
1) As "I" define things, all four of StillJames's scenarios are defensive. You are defending yourself from attack. When I say "offensive" here I am talking about , , , initiation.
2) I'm not sure why Herb is bringing here something I said on another forum that I did not have time for at the moment, but since he has I will take a moment to comment that I am not really sure why what I wrote above is being taken as/being presented as meaning that I am advocating giving poor quality, unrealistic knife attacks. Surely with DLO-1, DLO-2, and DLO-3 out there it should be pretty fg clear by now that I believe in training to solve realistic knife attacks?
Posts: 3
Re: DBMA Knife and Anti Knife
Reply #20 on:
June 13, 2010, 05:52:56 PM »
I actually thought your question was, "Should you teach offensive knife -- from an ethnical, moral, legal standpoint." And I thought you meant 'offensive' in the sense of fighting with the knife whether it is duel, ambush, defense (in the sense of counter-attack) or whatever.
It did seem that we (myself and several others) on both this forum and the other where something similar was posted were all giving answers or comments to different questions so that as leas some of us must have been off-topic from what your really intended.
In no way did I mean to imply that you (Crafty) were not in favor of realistic attacks and attacking skills -- I was merely trying to address the proposed question as I understood your initial post.
Power User
Posts: 30677
Re: DBMA Knife and Anti Knife
Reply #21 on:
June 13, 2010, 10:12:27 PM »
Fair enough.
Re: DBMA Knife and Anti Knife
Reply #22 on:
June 15, 2010, 06:39:50 AM »
I would never intend to initiate with a knife, any intiating attack from me would be from something way beyond "personal" distance. The only case I can envisage initiating a knife attack would be in the context of an ongoing fight with a lull which would allow me to get my knife (my last ditch weapon)out and open. In which case I will be looking for an ambush where the corpse will never know what hit it, if I could not be long gone.
The scenarios presented have me envisaging removing the weapon/ arm/ hand from the fight in the most immediate and violent means possible to end the fight. I do not know the name of the moves I envisage, but they all involve controlling the weapon hand/ arm so the bullet/ knife does not get to my body. That would be the 2 handed catch I know from Fairbairn styles, some disarms I know from Krav Maga, some "stacks" I have picked up in various demos (twist to lock joints then a vicious shove which breaks the joints/ breaks the weapon free and knocks the attacker over) of Aikido. The rebar would be my sticking point- I would probably be accepting some damage to get mobility vs 2 attackers. There is not any time for me to get the folder out, it is a case of being stuck in a fist fight vs weapon. Hopefully when all is said and done i can say " he brought a gun/knife/stick to a fist fight".
The amonia attack is by far the nastiest- I will have to think on that- no sight no breath, I would be hoping my woman knows enough to take care of herself while I am recovering enough to finish it. A dump the purse- kick the wallet under a car- run tactic might be in order?
Frequent Poster
Posts: 58
Re: DBMA Knife and Anti Knife
Reply #23 on:
June 16, 2010, 04:39:07 AM »
Yes, the 4 scenarios are all essentially a more aggressive and proactive defensive set-up. One of the moral and ethical points we face in our life in more than just a knife situation is: Where does proactivity end and being an aggressive bully begin? It is a hard line to draw. It's something that countries debate as well as people. At the end of the day, the decision is going to come down to the person out on the sharp end of things and what he or she can determine at the time with less than ten seconds to determine the pattern of the rest of the life. And the rest of us will likely debate it and second guess it later. I know I have with most of the things I have done, both good and bad.
Outside of certain situations such as sentry-elimination, is there truly a reason to engage in an entirely offensive scenario other than for pure power purposes. Even there, we get into crazy circles. We don't eliminate a sentry because we want to. But because we don't want the sentry to kill us or our friends. It gets dangerous because most (not all) authoritarian view themselves as operating in a mindset of proactive defense. Whenever we start playing games like that, we tend to get into chicken and egg spirals.
Which brings me to the next question: Outside of a purely sporting situation, why teach offensive combatives at all? One can very easily apply the same ethical question about offensive knife as offensive fist, foot, stick or handgun. The knife merely brings the danger and ethics into, ahem, sharper focus, ahem. *grin* A twelve year old boy who gets his body weight behind a haymaker can shatter a jaw in a schoolyard fight without training. That's thousands of dollars and many weeks of recovery time plus pain and suffering inflicted upon someone.
Fingers, fists, knees and other empty handed blows can be every bit as lethal as the knife. We should never forget that, ethically, when we argue, fight or teach. One of the reasons for the foundation of arts such as Aikido is so that someone could defend themselves without mangling someone else for the rest of their life.
I have come to feel that, as a teacher, one of the responsibilities is to provide a practical example of living correctly. I do not mean espousing any particular dogma or belief. I mean simply living and showing daily certain basic ideas such as not inflicting needless harm with deeds or words (which can be the same thing) But I get way off topic and into other forum topics. Enough for now.
And I apologize if I ever go too far into classroom lecture mode. I do that almost by default.
By the way, a very interesting discussion, all.
Power User
Posts: 143
Re: DBMA Knife and Anti Knife
Reply #24 on:
June 17, 2010, 02:24:44 PM »
Outside of a purely sporting situation, why teach offensive combatives at all?
It is my opinion that teaching a defensive mentality will get people hurt. People preach the impracticality of bjj in violent encounters all the time, and then those same people accept something like pinning an opponent with aikido as highly functional. It boggles the mind. Defense just won't work against multiple or armed opponents. You have to end the situation. At least that is what the "experts" on the subject seem to agree on.
Why teach offensive knife skills? Are there really any defensive knife skills? It seems to me that the Pekiti methodology of "offense/counter offense" is really the only option when considering blades. You can't exactly roof block a knife slash. It seems to me that using a knife to defend yourself, and using defensive knife techniques are two separate things. One exists, and one doesn't.
When life gives you lemons make lemonade
When life gives you hemlock, do NOT make hemlockade!
Power User
Posts: 299
Re: DBMA Knife and Anti Knife
Reply #25 on:
June 17, 2010, 07:02:42 PM »
There was debate a while back after the growth of the RBSD movement - Reality Based Self Defense that is - regarding the problem of using the word 'Defense'. Obviously Self Defense is a concept we all understand, but many in the field preferred to call what they did 'Self Protection' because ultimately people with experience understood that the best defense is offense, and on some level you NEED to be pro active. Purely defending yourself, and having preset, imaginary boundaries of not being willing to hurt your attacker are misguided at best.
I have never been attacked, so I only speak from what I have learned and read from others that know and teach this stuff.
So far the consensus is that the only way to stop a committed attacker attacking you, is to attack them. If they are not busy dealing with you, they are not going to stop. As those that never get closer to fighting than sparring or doing SKD know, you can't defend forever, it just doesn't work, even in this 'fair' environment.
I have come to believe that it is not realistic to think of 'defense' in a non offensive manner. If you are BEING attacked, it's too late.
Bringing a knife into the equation is obviously a matter for each individual to choose - perhaps you are not even given the option - but if you had the option, I think it is worth looking at if/when it would be useful, and what to do with it to help you survive and escape.
IMHO the most important areas of inquiry need to be the triggers that set off an appropriate reaction - training so the fore and lizard brain are both processing (presence of mind in the adrenal state) and then very importantly the 'off switch'. When/how to stop - exit stage left? Control and restrain? etc.
Though I'm sure many of you have read it, I truly recommend Rory Miler's book "Meditations on Violence" for some great insights into different types of violence and their motivations, and the best options for surviving.
Quote: "It is better to avoid than to run; better to run than to de-escalate; better to de-escalate than to fight; better to fight than to die. The very essence of self-defense is a thin list of things that might get you out alive when you are already screwed.- From Meditations on Violence
Also: "Self defense is about recovery from stupidity or bad luck, from finding yourself in a position you would have given almost anything to prevent."
It will seem difficult at first, but everything is difficult at first.
Miyamoto Musashi.
Power User
Posts: 30677
Re: DBMA Knife and Anti Knife
Reply #26 on:
June 17, 2010, 07:56:28 PM »
Have you seen my post of 6/13 wherein I define my term?
Power User
Posts: 299
Re: DBMA Knife and Anti Knife
Reply #27 on:
June 17, 2010, 11:47:16 PM »
Yes, I believe you defined 'offensive' in this conversation as 'initiation'.
My post was adding to the previous post by Jonobos discussing the concept of what 'defense' actually IS. Sometimes the parameters become blurred because successful defense is often offense ... but not 'initiation'. Hence some teachers renaming what they teach as self protection instead of self defense.
Am I getting my wires crossed here .. or perhaps just too caught up in the semantics?
It will seem difficult at first, but everything is difficult at first.
Miyamoto Musashi.
Re: DBMA Knife and Anti Knife
Reply #28 on:
June 18, 2010, 06:15:28 AM »
In all the scenarios mentioned, the lethal force combat was initiated by whom? Also do not confuse Initiation with an aggressive defense. Counter attacks are defensive since they are triggered by an initial attack........... When you have a lethal weapon, Kinife/Gun, in a fight- your are not in a fight, you are in combat. Combat is all about shutting down the agressor as quickly as possible to limit his oppurtunities to hurt you. If that means some broken bones and dislocations- tough, he defined the terms upon his initiation. He put lives on the line, if you are able to end the dispute without taking a life- good, but he defined the stakes.
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Posts: 30677
Re: DBMA Knife and Anti Knife
Reply #29 on:
June 18, 2010, 06:52:52 AM »
Power User
Posts: 143
Re: DBMA Knife and Anti Knife
Reply #30 on:
June 18, 2010, 07:37:45 AM »
Quote from: Crafty_Dog on June 17, 2010, 07:56:28 PM
Have you seen my post of 6/13 wherein I define my term?
Ack! The devil is in the details... I had missed this somehow.
Still, an interesting discussion even if I did side track it a bit.
When life gives you lemons make lemonade
When life gives you hemlock, do NOT make hemlockade!
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Posts: 299
Re: DBMA Knife and Anti Knife
Reply #31 on:
June 18, 2010, 08:25:22 AM »
Rarick and Crafty - Yes! Absolutely! I do not believe I was confusing 'initiation' with an aggressive defense, but perhaps the confusion (which I was just adding to apparently LOL) stems from stilljames June 16th post?
Quote: "Where does proactivity end and being an aggressive bully begin? It is a hard line to draw."
"Which brings me to the next question: Outside of a purely sporting situation, why teach offensive combatives at all?"
"Fingers, fists, knees and other empty handed blows can be every bit as lethal as the knife. We should never forget that, ethically, when we argue, fight or teach. One of the reasons for the foundation of arts such as Aikido is so that someone could defend themselves without mangling someone else for the rest of their life."
It will seem difficult at first, but everything is difficult at first.
Miyamoto Musashi.
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Posts: 30677
Re: DBMA Knife and Anti Knife
Reply #32 on:
June 18, 2010, 11:09:00 AM »
No worries, we dogs tend to be non-linear
That said, may I suggest we consistent terminology from here forward. As to which terminology, may I suggest , , , mine?
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Posts: 143
Re: DBMA Knife and Anti Knife
Reply #33 on:
June 18, 2010, 01:24:23 PM »
A couple of thoughts. We can probably learn a lesson or two from the sport element of mma/grappling and apply those concepts to the knife/anti knife dynamic. It occurs to me that when given the choice I will go for a choke over an arm bar. I have found that really tough guys, or guys with over sized egos may not tap to techniques that simply produce pain. The same can be said about mma and ground and pound tactics. Eventually the fight may be stopped by the ref, but it usually isn't the fighter who calls it quits. In a situation that is our life vs theirs shouldn't be be looking for the stategy that bails us out the fastest? A solid blood choke is not a matter of toughness on the part of your opponent. Lack of blood to the brain will stop his resistance even if he is unusually tough, or full of gusto! Can this concept be applied to the knife somehow? Is relying on pain the best plan?
When life gives you lemons make lemonade
When life gives you hemlock, do NOT make hemlockade!
Posts: 3
Re: DBMA Knife and Anti Knife
Reply #34 on:
June 18, 2010, 06:17:52 PM »
Quote from: Jonobos on June 18, 2010, 01:24:23 PM
...stop his resistance even if he is unusually tough, or full of gusto! Can this concept be applied to the knife somehow? Is relying on pain the best plan?
It can, as long as we don't expect the analogy to be too direct, i.e., we aren't likely to go immediately for a choke when a guy is flailing away with a knife but we certainly can look for ways to remove his ability to fight.
One general strategy I prefer when working counter-knife (i.e., I am defending myself using a knife against his [criminal] knife attack] is to cut his fingers or arm, while largely remaining outside of the range of his knife with my body.
This is not a unique idea, but I have been working up integrated set of tactics and techniques to aid this goal.
It is quite possible that merely bringing our knife out (into the fight), getting a small cut on the attacker, up to and including destroying his ability to hold the knife or otherwise disarming him will give him sufficient reason to remember a previous appointment.
Criminals don't usually want a 'fair fight' so unless there are overriding issues of rage or drugs, most of them will not want to continue an assault if you can demonstrate it will not be easy for him.
My choice of tools even gave significant weight (pun intended) to this strategy when I choose my left hand knife -- a Cold Steel Spartan which has a lot of heft and chopping ability, as well as the ability to stab and rip.
There are likely several other ways to approach this idea (strategically and then tactically.)
Re: DBMA Knife and Anti Knife
Reply #35 on:
June 19, 2010, 06:31:40 AM »
A human beings best tools are his hands, arms are the main actuators of hands. You can break both while keeping your IQ, Blood Pump and Oxygenators safely out of range. I would skip a choke since there is no way to control his primary weapons while doing so. In combat an arm bar does not stop short of a broken arm, you do it fast- his strength is not going to matter since breakage and realization of intent should hit at the same moment.
I know ground fighting but I will avoid it since mobility is a serious asset in any fight and by being on the ground gives up a serious chunk of angles and a lot of your ability to apply force. You always have to consider the "Joiner" factor. A passerby may consider you the aggressor from their point of perpective. If you finish the fight and back off, you have a chance of avoiding a fight with them. If you are on the ground and tied up with the aggressor, the well meaning good samaritan could become a second victim or accidentally kill you with his interference..........
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Posts: 143
Re: DBMA Knife and Anti Knife
Reply #36 on:
June 20, 2010, 12:54:34 AM »
I would skip a choke
The concept was what I was shooting for. Obviously we don't want to tangle up with the guy and choke him. I meant that some things overcome physical resistance and toughness faster than others. But this becomes a question of how to access the areas that will produce the desired result with as little danger to our juicy areas as possible. This means accessing our weapon if it isn't already out, and getting clean shots with enough power to do the job. If I can disable him enough then I can create the opening to beat feet that much easier right? It seems to me that surviving any realistic scenario takes a skill set larger than most people have. The awareness to notice the situation ahead of time, accessing your weapon, and then keeping the potential PAB assailant off you long enough to do significant damage...
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When life gives you hemlock, do NOT make hemlockade!
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text:
Infidel wrote:hajo wrote:Whispri wrote:The mannequin with the eyes, just as it appears, or some sort of unfinished Unit?
I wonder it can function as a spy+scout-unit, much like the bats from Transylvito ?
That would enable Huffaton to see who captured their city, and perhaps gain other intel...
I like how you think.
Yes, or a recording unit. Just Haffaton putting a face to Faq could mess up the plan to raze this city anonymously. Somebody with a brain on the Haffaton side (Wanda say) might be able to put apparently unrelated info together. And there doesn't have to be a Dollamancer, could have been Wanda the multitalent trying out another skill.

subset: commoncrawl


text:
|By Katie Matthews
Article Rating:
|June 21, 2014 03:00 PM EDT
The announcement this week that Facebook is acquiring Pryte should make operators sit up and take notice. The communications landscape is evolving at breakneck speed and operators need to start shouting about where they can bring value, before they get drowned out by the noise.
Because bring value they certainly can. We all know how these partnerships should work in theory: operator brings their established systems and customer insight to the table, OTT brings its innovation and "cool" factor, as well as hoards of happy customers. The two parties "mash up" their services and the resulting revenue is shared between them.
The reality doesn't have to be far from that. Where many operators fall down is that they are not geared to rapidly respond to changing traffic patterns, new applications and user requirements. And that is a real issue. Because to grow revenues and market share in the new world order of the digital economy, it is not so much about survival of the fittest but survival of the fastest.
Failure to improve organisational agility is one of the greatest risks to operators, according to the 'Top Ten Risks In Telecommunications 2014' report from analysts EY.
"Operators have moved from network-centric to customer-facing structures. Simplifying and streamlining these structures while driving new forms of interaction within organizations will be vital if telcos are to cope with a range of escalating trends."
Operators might not be prepared to nail their flag to the mast in terms of what form their OTT Partnership Strategy will take - with the market seemingly in a permanent state of flux, many are sitting back and waiting for the waters to settle - but they all know that in order to execute it, the business, both in terms of processes and supporting infrastructure, needs to support agility.
The three pillars of agility
Fundamentally, this means putting the customer at the centre of the organisation and ensuring that the whole business is geared to bringing them greater value: knowing what it is they want, creating innovative apps/ services that meet those demands and delivering these at the "crucial" moment.
This might sound like pretty basic marketing but the difference is that operators must be set up to act fast on customer insight, if they want to match the pace set by their OTT counterparts and remain a relevant value player.
From pipe dream to revenue stream
This is neatly demonstrated by third-party data sharing, a major emerging revenue stream that a number of operators want to capitalise on through their OTT Partnerships.
Without the systems in place that can sift through the data deluge, and offer real-time insight based on specific customer context parameters, the value of this data assest simply cannot be realised - or, at least, not to its full potential.
Ideally, operators would be looking now at systems that offer out-of-the box capabilities to mine data in real time, so that they can move fast in exploiting the growing demand from OTTs for holistic customer insight. Critical functionality is the ability to set up customer context parameters, and mine for those specific data streams in real-time. This enables Operator and OTT to define circumstances where a subscriber would be sent a relevant offer.
While campaign management tools are advanced, there are few operators who offer this high level data mining. Even fewer who can offer it out-of-the-box. But operators who are serious about monetising their customer data require detailed insight - now.
Partnerships in Practice
Beyond customer insight, operators must be in a position to create new services with the Over The Top (OTT) players and other digital service providers. Integrating on a case-by-case basis is cumbersome, and slows operators down in launching new market-ready services.
Operators are keen to form partnerships, in order to add value to their data bundles. The partnership model is a key tenant in reducing churn and protecting future revenues.
Those operators who are serious about this approach are investing now proprietary collaboration platform that can be directly integrated with the operator's BSS/OSS systems, providing developers with access to both network assets and to the operator's back-office systems (Billing CRM, Analytics) and supporting 'mash ups' of operator/ OTT services. Unlike the inherent bureaucracy of industry-led initiatives, changes to individual deployments can be implemented quickly - essential given the rate at which this market moves.
In other words, being fast and agile is key to success in this new sector. Making investment now in the systems that will support this, and enable operators to turn their customer insight into a sustainable revenue stream, is critical to long-term success.
After a couple of false starts, cloud-based desktop solutions are picking up steam, driven by trends such as BYOD and pervasive high-speed connectivity. In his session at 15th Cloud Expo, Seth Bostock, CEO of IndependenceIT, cuts through the hype and the acronyms, and discusses the emergence of full-featured cloud workspaces that do for the desktop what cloud infrastructure did for the server. He'll discuss VDI vs DaaS, implementation strategies and evaluation criteria.
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Scott Jenson leads a project called The Physical Web within the Chrome team at Google. Project members are working to take the scalability and openness of the web and use it to talk to the exponentially exploding range of smart devices. Nearly every company today working on the IoT comes up with the same basic solution: use my server and you'll be fine. But if we really believe there will be trillions of these devices, that just can't scale. We need a system that is open a scalable and by using the URL as a basic building block, we open this up and get the same resilience that the web enjoys.
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The Internet of Things is a natural complement to the cloud and related technologies such as Big Data, analytics, and mobility. In his session at Internet of @ThingsExpo, Joe Weinman will lay out four generic strategies – digital disciplines – to exploit emerging digital technologies for strategic advantage. Joe Weinman has held executive leadership positions at Bell Labs, AT&T, Hewlett-Packard, and Telx, in areas such as corporate strategy, business development, product management, operations, and R&D.
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SYS-CON Events announced today that DevOps.com has been named "Media Sponsor" of SYS-CON's "DevOps Summit at Cloud Expo," which will take place on June 10–12, 2014, at the Javits Center in New York City, New York. DevOps.com is where the world meets DevOps. It is the largest collection of original content relating to DevOps on the web today Featuring up-to-the-minute news, feature stories, blogs, bylined articles and more, DevOps.com is where the thought leaders of the DevOps movement make their ideas known.
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There are 182 billion emails sent every day, generating a lot of data about how recipients and ISPs respond. Many marketers take a more-is-better approach to stats, preferring to have the ability to slice and dice their email lists based numerous arbitrary stats. However, fundamentally what really matters is whether or not sending an email to a particular recipient will generate value. Data Scientists can design high-level insights such as engagement prediction models and content clusters that allow marketers to cut through the noise and design their campaigns around strong, predictive signals, rather than arbitrary statistics. SendGrid sends up to half a billion emails a day for customers such as Pinterest and GitHub. All this email adds up to more text than produced in the entire twitterverse. We track events like clicks, opens and deliveries to help improve deliverability for our customers – adding up to over 50 billion useful events every month. While SendGrid data covers only abo...
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SYS-CON Events announced today that the Web Host Industry Review has been named "Media Sponsor" of SYS-CON's 15th International Cloud Expo®, which will take place on November 4–6, 2014, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. Since 2000, The Web Host Industry Review has made a name for itself as the foremost authority of the Web hosting industry providing reliable, insightful and comprehensive news, reviews and resources to the hosting community. TheWHIR Blogs provides a community of expert industry perspectives. The Web Host Industry Review Magazine also offers a business-minded, issue-driven perspective of interest to executives and decision-makers. WHIR TV offers on demand web hosting video interviews and web hosting video features of the key persons and events of the web hosting industry. WHIR Events brings together like-minded hosting industry professionals and decision-makers in local communities. TheWHIR is an iNET Interactive property.
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"In my session I spoke about enterprise cloud analytics and how we can leverage analytics as a service," explained Ajay Budhraja, CTO at the Department of Justice, in this SYS-CON.tv interview at the 14th International Cloud Expo®, held June 10-12, 2014, at the Javits Center in New York City. Cloud Expo® 2014 Silicon Valley, November 4–6, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA, will feature technical sessions from a rock star conference faculty and the leading Cloud industry players in the world.
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text:
Possibly looking like some of the caps might be shot as well.
having trouble getting a reading on a lot of the caps, so either they are all dead or my method of testing is flawed. I just have my multimeter in open/short mode and it beeps if there is a "short" but the caps im having trouble with


text:
When Patch was pretty new on the scene, I was asked to write a series of articles on the subject of bullying. I don't even remember how I originally met up with Patch's Manchester editor David Moran, but meet we did and a career as an author was launched.
Now, nearly two years and almost 80 articles later, it's time to step down as a Patch columnist. While I've thoroughly enjoyed myself and have been glad to have had this experience, it's time to move on.
My first column, "Bullying, What's a Parent to Do?" was published April 6, 2011, and launched a series of articles on the issue of bullying in our school systems and elsewhere.
When the issue of bullying started to turn around in our school systems, I moved on to more general pieces dealing with topical issues in the news. I hope that my articles on bullying helped in some way to change the climate in the Manchester school system around the issue of bullying.
For better or for worse, my favorite columns were the ones that engaged the most people in discussion as evidenced by the posts in the "Tell me in the comments" section. I don't write to simply put forth my own beliefs on a particular subject, but rather to help people work through issues they are having, maybe provide a framework that can help people come to better understanding of an issue or just to help people formulate their own thoughts to better expound on a subject matter.
As I look back over nearly 80 articles, I wonder how I could have possibly accomplished such a feat. But then I realize, as with all things in life, it happens a little bit at a time. For those of you who have often thought about becoming writers, whether for a column or for a book, let this be an inspiration to you. If I had sat down at the beginning of all this and said "I have to write 80 columns" it would never have happened. Just focus on doing a little bit each day and before you know it, you've got enough material for a book.
My martial art students know that I am a strong believer in writing thank you notes as a way to let others know that they have touched my life in a special way. So thank you to all those who took the time to write and let me know that my articles helped them in some way. That was, after all, the whole reason for writing them in the first place.
I'd even like to thank the haters — and there were quite a few! While it truly amazes me at how angry some would become simply because an alternate point of view was being offered, I hope my articles were instrumental in breaking through some of that anger and then became a catalyst for some good debates that helped to move issues forward.
Special thanks go to my better half Elaine Flaherty and my friend Giancarlo Fusco for volunteering to read and review my columns before setting them loose on the general public. I'm sure my editors extend their heartfelt thanks as well, as it certainly made their lives a bit easier.
Personally, I always approach discussions with the mindset of developing a deeper understanding of the subject matter, not to simply push my current understanding of the issue. I wish more would take this approach more often as none of us really "know the truth." The best any of us can hope to do is to know "of the truth." Truth is not a static thing. It grows and changes based on things like time, geography, maturity, etc.
It's been a pleasure and a great privilege to write for Patch, to share my views on various subjects and to, hopefully, help others see the world through different eyes.
So, keep an open mind, keep striving for an ever deeper understanding of the truth and keep seeking to bridge the gaps between your understanding of a thing and someone else's. We're all in this together. It's high time we acted like it.


text:
I really hope Cain doesn't get sent to JW since she doesn't have a reliable 3F. USFS seems to love her though and she gets marked very highly when she skates well.
Can we make a list of the juniors with reliable enough 3Fs? I don't follow all of them closely enough.
Is there a list of top SP's for US ladies this season?
Going by junior grand prix results...
Cain did her 3 Flip and loop combo in the short during her one jgp, but seemed to have trouble landing many triples in the long at that event (3 falls) (She is stronger in edge jumps). Pattern seemed to continue in sectionals.
Lam did her flip in the short but messed up the lutz at that same jgp; she did quite a few triples in the long but only the triple toe got positive goe. She just missed getting a second jgp.
Courtney Hicks hasn't been very consistent in the short program this season, though the issue seemed to be the loop, not the flip. (I don't think she's had a clean short this season.) Long program seemed fine from what I recall.
Baga fell on her flip and did a 3t/2t with -goe in JGP Lake Placid. Long program just okay. I wonder if she's shifting her focus to pairs. (She didn't get a second jgp)
Wang messed up her short program (two jump issues) in Lake Placid but did a great one in her second jgp. The long program in both events was great.
Hannah Miller did a clean short in her first jgp but not the second one (messed up the loop). Her long program was also better at her first jgp.
Cesario skated very well in both long and short when she wasn't having an injury (like in her first jgp and sectionals, but she skated with an injury at her second jgp and withdrew).
Keiser did fairly well in the short program at both jgp events despite negative goes in her jumps (negative goe in her flip and 3/3). She did well in the long in her first jgp but came 7th in the free skate in the second event). We'll see if she can get some positive goes in the jgpf.
Barbie Long got her 3 flip downgraded in her one jgp event but did a triple-triple combo and landed about 5 triples in the long.
Wang, Keiser and Miller will be at the JGPF
Last edited by jlai; 12-01-2012 at 10:37 PM.
The ISU keeps a list of short program SB scores - here are the 13 U.S. ladies above 50 points in GP/JGP so far: (only Long is competing Jr. at Nationals):
3 63.09 Ashley WAGNER USA ISU GP Trophee Bompard 2012 16.11.2012
5 62.16 Gracie GOLD USA ISU GP Rostelecom Cup 2012 09.11.2012
7 61.18 Mirai NAGASU USA ISU GP NHK Trophy 2012 23.11.2012
10 60.18 Agnes ZAWADZKI USA ISU GP Rostelecom Cup 2012 09.11.2012
15 58.47 Angela WANG USA ISU JGP Croatia Cup 2012 04.10.2012
20 56.63 Christina GAO USA ISU GP Hilton HHonors Skate America 2012 20.10.2012
21 55.47 Hannah MILLER USA ISU JGP Austria 2012 14.09.2012
22 55.14 Leah KEISER USA ISU JGP Pokal d. Blauen Schwerter 2012 11.10.2012
27 54.38 Samantha CESARIO USA ISU JGP Austria 2012 14.09.2012
34 52.97 Caroline ZHANG USA ISU GP Skate Canada International 2012 26.10.2012
38 52.24 Barbie LONG USA ISU JGP Sencila Bled Cup 2012 27.09.2012 (JR in US)
41 51.36 Courtney HICKS USA ISU JGP Lake Placid 2012 31.08.2012
42 51.31 Ashley CAIN USA ISU JGP Courchevel 2012 23.08.2012
Zawadzki's SP high score internationally so far this season is 65.24 (Salt Lake Senior B in Sept.) but it's not counted on the ISU SB list.
Last edited by Sylvia; 12-02-2012 at 07:22 PM.
"Randy [Starkman (1960-April 16, 2012)] lived by the same motto as the rest of us. The Olympics isnt every four years, its every single day. He just got it." --Canadian Olympic kayaker Adam van Koeverden
Barbie Long usually gets edge calls on her 3f, which explains why her SP scores aren't higher considering her 3lz-3t is pretty consistent. Polina Edmunds has a pretty consistent 3f that doesn't usually get edge calls, and it's strong enough that she attempts, and usually pulls off, a 3f-3t in her FS.
Kiri and Ashley don't really have the technical content to garner being sent to JW IMO, Kiri is only really consistent with 3t and 3s, she doesn't attempt 3lo, historically 2a has given her trouble, and her 3lz and 3f are iffy. Cain has a strong 3lo and 3s, and sometimes the 3lz works for her, but 3f is arguably her weakest triple so that's a concern regarding JW.
Vanessa and Hannah can do the harder triples, but Lam has a bad flutz and both girls have very small jumps which garner minimal GOE at best, sometimes negative even, and neither has a 3-3.
Hicks is prone to mistakes but is capable of 3-3s and I don't think she usually gets edge calls on her lutz or flip. 3f is usually a strong jump for her.
Keiser has 3lz-3t but the 3t is pretty much always UR. She can do 3f and the other triples, but is hit or miss when it comes to landing or cleanly executing them.
Angela Wang and Samatha both have big jumps and can do all the triples. Samantha has a 3flutz but I don't think Angela has edge issues on either jumps, 3f is a strong jump for both girls. Angela has 3lz-3t that is pretty consistent and Samantha has talked about 3lo-3lo so maybe we'll see that at Nationals.
Mariah Bell can do all the triples but no 3-3 and her jumps are small and not always consistent.
I'd say the best JW team would be Angela, Samantha, and either Polina or Barbie (whoever places higher at Nationals), or if Samantha were to get 4CC instead, then Angela, Polina, and Barbie could go. If they want to stick to the senior ladies at Nationals, then Miller and Keiser probably have the next best chances of making this. And this is excluding the possibility that Gracie (or I guess Agnes and Christina are still technically age eligible) gets sent, because if she's like 5th or 6th at Nationals she'll likely be offered the spot first even if she decides to decline.
I'm inclined to say that none of the US Nationals Junior Ladies competitors are going to be sent to JW this year, save for perhaps Barbie Long if she wins in convincing fashion. Edmunds attempts some ambitious content, but is frequently dinged with UR calls, so her score can vary within a very wide range for a "clean" program depending on how strict the caller is. She still has a very raw awkwardness to much of her skating, so I doubt PCS will be very high internationally. Long's PCS have improved this year, but she's still less polished IMO than Wang, Miller, Keiser, Baga, Lam, Cain, etc. Additionally, since Edmunds wasn't sent to a JGP this year (and I still think that's a mistake on USFS' part), she'd have to be sent to a junior 'B' international between nationals and JW in order to be eligible. I think that's a bigger investment than USFS is going to make; there are a large number of strong, JW age-eligible skaters to send instead. While Edmunds has turned some heads this year with her technical content, she hasn't been consistently so fantastic this year (a la Zawadzki 2010, Hicks 2011 and Gold 2012) to warrant being sent over the other skaters.
My predictions for JW team: Wang, Cesario, Miller. Possibly Lam (she tends to skate well domestically and has had a lot of time to prepare for nationals).
Wagner - a good 3f-3t puts her in the driver's seat at Nationals. A clean 3f-2t puts her in a much tighter competition w/ the next 3. Perhaps leading, perhaps very close behind to any of the next 3.
Gold - a possible leader after the SP if no 3-3 from Ashley. Otherwise 2nd - 4th
Nagasu - see above. Otherwise, 2nd -4th
Zawadzki - see above. Otherwise, 2nd - 4th
Gao - will be closer to the above 4 than the Fall scores suggest. I think being a GPF finalist will help close some of that gap.
Wang or Czisny (if she can skate competently by January) - interesting scenario; what if Czisny skates a clean SP complete w/ all the style and beautiful spins? Will the judges put her in the mix for the title? She'll definitely be in the final group w/ a good score. Wang is the top US junior and would be my pick to be in the final group if Czisny has problems.
The penultimate group could be a bunch of Juniors
Wang or Czisny - a botched performance by Czisny will still get her enough decent PCS to be in the penultimate group. As stated, Wang is probably the best of the Juniors
Cesario - if healthy, bigger jumps and nice choreography will IMO put her above all of the other juniors. Being a newcomer to Senior Nats might hold her back just a little.
Lam - usually very solid in the SP at Nats, but Cesario and Wang are generally more impressive this year and Lam has proven to be uneven.
Miller - smaller jumps, but pretty solid
Keiser - better than last year and ambitious, but prone to UR and needs more time to skate like a senior
Zhang- could be anywhere from the final group to worse than the penultimate group. I can't read her right now. Some have said she does much better later in the season
Dunne - ETA - I didn't see she did so well in the SP at sectionals. Could be a factor, but I think Hicks and Cain have more international exposure and will get more props
Hicks - if she is indeed being more strategic to remove the 3z, she could be in the penultimate group ahead of a flawed Zhang or even Keiser w/ UR's
Cain - I don't think she's penultimate group material yet but she is improving by virtue of her Sectionals performance
Baga - pleasant skater, but she's now spreading out into Pairs and doesn't have big moves. I don't see her doing much on the singles front this year.
It seems to be shaking out into an easier to define pecking order than in the past.
ETA - Reading Sylvia's post below,
Siraj - in danger of just disappearing from the ranks of the top ladies.
Bereswill - has been a fair-to-middling skater for the last few years, but also pretty disastrous at times. I don't see her among the top skaters at nationals
Forte - at this stage is probably just skating for the helluvit, for herself, w/o any thought to being a top lady
Last edited by olympic; 12-04-2012 at 02:33 PM.
Sectionals SP - Senior Ladies:
59.43 Lam 3Lz2Lo, 2A, 3F
58.20 Dunne 3Lz2T, 3F, 2A (Haley has had several good SP performances this season)
57.80 Cesario 3F2T, 2A, 3Lo
57.80 Hicks 3F3T -1.58, 3Lo, 2A
55.83 Cain 3Lo2T, 3S, 2A
51.69 Bereswill 3Lz2T, 3S, 2A (comeback season - Becky's last Nationals in singles was in 2010)
51.06 Baga 3F< -2.10, 3T2T, 2A
48.88 Siraj 3T2T, 1Lz, 2A (Yasmin is very capable of a good SP score when she skates clean)
48.18 Forte 3Lz2T, 3S, 2A
ETA that Dunne, Bereswill and Siraj have all shown significant improvements during the course of this season, IMO.
Last edited by Sylvia; 12-04-2012 at 02:42 PM.
"Randy [Starkman (1960-April 16, 2012)] lived by the same motto as the rest of us. The Olympics isnt every four years, its every single day. He just got it." --Canadian Olympic kayaker Adam van Koeverden
Re-posting from the GPF and JGP forums in Kiss and Cry...
Rejuvenated Gao 'honored' to be with sport's elite: http://www.icenetwork.com/news/artic...&vkey=ice_news (includes a quote by Wagner at the end)
Another Michigan article on Hannah Miller (includes video): http://www.lansingstatejournal.com/a...compete-Russia
"Randy [Starkman (1960-April 16, 2012)] lived by the same motto as the rest of us. The Olympics isnt every four years, its every single day. He just got it." --Canadian Olympic kayaker Adam van Koeverden
This local feature on Gracie (after 2012 Nationals) I just discovered:
Any news about whether Kiira Korpi will be participating in the Final? Word is she's having back problems...if she withdraws, that means Mirai would be headed to Sochi. Granted, it may be too late at this point...
It would definitely be too late at this point.
The women's SP is Friday afternoon (early Fri morning here in the US) if I'm not mistaken. FAR too late to fly in any replacement at this point.
Kiira Korpi Official @kiirakorpi_fi tweeted earlier today:
"Back cramps and stomach flu, not a perfect way to get prepared for the GP final, BUT I survived and now I'm on my way to Sochi! Yes!!!"
As the next alternate, Nagasu was supposed to be on stand-by until noon Sochi time on Monday, Dec, 3rd.
The coaches of Angela Wang, Hannah Miller, and Leah Keiser had some nice things to say about their students in this JGP Final preview article: http://web.icenetwork.com/news/artic...&vkey=ice_news
"Randy [Starkman (1960-April 16, 2012)] lived by the same motto as the rest of us. The Olympics isnt every four years, its every single day. He just got it." --Canadian Olympic kayaker Adam van Koeverden


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Simple and easy to use
Is really easy to set up and attach and comes in a great little carry bag that fits in the backpack. Such a good design!
after my husband was finished setting it up the difficult way we were ready to go its so easy to attach to my carrier and the full blockout top and back are perfect for top sun whereas the sides are mesh which is great for breathability and allows the baby to have more of a view the only downside is the sun can still be very bright coming in from the sides especially if it is a low sun but in saying that it is probably still enough blockout to prevent sunburn other than that it is a must have accessory to the carrier
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This product is available as a pre-order. This means that we do not currently have the item in stock but we are expecting it shortly. You can place an order for this product now your expected shipping date will be 05-08-2011
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