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Dealing With Bunions
A bunion is a bony protrusion on the side of the big toe or in some less common cases on the outside of the small toe. The protrusion at the joint of the base of the toe can become irritated, swollen and painful. As the protrusion becomes larger the toe bends toward the second toe causing further sources of irritation. There appears to be multiple causes of a bunion. Genetically the foot may be shaped such that normal activity puts excessive pressure on the big toe eventually causing a bunion. Some suggest footwear that does not fit properly may also put excessive pressure and cause a bunion. The protrusion may be excessive bone structure or a fluid sac called the bursa that becomes inflamed. In any case the deformity of the toe makes it difficult to find proper fitting footwear, is not a pleasant sight, and can be very painful.
Bunions are most often caused by an inherited faulty mechanical structure of the foot. It is not the bunion itself that is inherited, but certain foot types that make a person prone to developing a bunion. Although wearing shoes that crowd the toes won?t actually cause bunions, it sometimes makes the deformity get progressively worse. Symptoms may therefore appear sooner.
Since the pain from a bunion is always aggravated by shoe wear, the symptoms will often depend on the type and size of shoes worn. The perception of pain or discomfort that people experience is quite varied. There are some individuals who have small bunions that are very uncomfortable. This limits their ability to wear shoes comfortably. On the other hand, some individuals may have quite significant deformities that are annoying but do not limit their activities in anyway.
X-rays are the best way to determine the amount of deformity of the MTP joint. Blood work may be required to rule out other diseases that may be associated with bunions such as rheumatoid arthritis. Other tests such as bone scans or MRI's are not usually required.
Non Surgical Treatment
The most common cause of a bunion is over pronation, this is when your foot rotates in too much as you walk. You really need to treat the underlying cause of the bunion as soon as possible to prevent any further damage. Wear wide fitting shoes, preferably with a leather upper which will allow a stretch. Avoid high heeled shoes. Bunion exercises will help to keep the joint flexible. Bunion surgery may be required in some patients, however this should only be considered when all non-surgical treatment options have been used. Bunion surgery has improved dramatically over the last 20 years but it still cannot guarantee a total recovery and often post operative complications such as calluses and corns can occur depending on the procedure used. If your bunion becomes painful, red and swollen, try using ice on the joint and elevate the foot on a stool. Bunion Night Splints can reduce the size of the bunion. This will straighten the bunion while you sleep. A Bunion Shield can reduce the pain over the bunion. Performing stretches on your toes and feet while you go about your daily routine. This increases circulation, red blood cell activity, and bone realignment. The easiest way to do this is by using a soft, flexible, medical grade gel Toe stretcher which is gentle between the toes and helps to straighten your toes.
Surgical Treatment
If the conservative options fail, your doctor will determine the best surgical procedure based on the severity of your condition. The most common surgical procedure is a bunionectomy, which includes removing swollen tissue from around your big toe joint. Removing part of the bone to straighten your big toe. Realigning the metatarsal bone to reduce angular deformity. Joining the bones in a corrected position to permanently correct the deformity. Most people can get up and walk around the day after bunion surgery, but full recovery can occasionally take up to eight weeks or more. Doctors stress the importance of wearing proper shoes, especially after treatment, to prevent recurrence. If you are at higher risk or prone to bunions, you may not be able to avoid recurrence.
To help prevent bunions be sure your shoes don't cramp or irritate your toes. Choose shoes with a wide toe box - there should be space between the tip of your longest toe and the end of the shoe. Your shoes should conform to the shape of your feet without squeezing or pressing any part of your foot. Avoid pointy-toed shoes.


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Old fashioned retro sweets....yummy/
Wow. Need to cheer someone up? Have to apologise for something? How about sending this box of sweet tasting nostalgia? It weighs 7.3 lb, which is more than I weighed as a baby! Imagine the feeling when receiving this as a delivery?! Better than flowers and will last much longer (well......maybe....)
A Quarter Of is a traditional, old fashioned sweetshop online, and it has all of your childhood favourites.
You can browse by flavour, texture, brand and inspiring gift ideas. You can even buy gift boxes of sweets based on your favourite decade (50s-80s).
This massive hamper even comes with a genuine old comic.....Gosh looking at it even gets my mouth watering.
So...what's your favourite childhood sweet? Does it reveal your age? I think I'm a penny sweet girl....shrimps, mushrooms and maybe a sweetie watch (the time seemed to always be 2:30).

subset: commoncrawl


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At the risk of jinxing things, it's worth noting that 2013 so far has seen relatively few dire and desperate headlines about the country's housing market. Prices have stabilized, foreclosures and "shadow inventory" are down, and existing-home sales numbers have been trending slowly upward. In short, to some savers, real estate is beginning to look inviting as an investment again.
This week, MarketWatch tax columnist Eva Rosenberg explores the ins and outs of one investing approach – owning property through a so-called self-directed IRA. Self-directed IRAs are financial entities that let savers invest in a broader range of alternative assets than traditional accounts and 401(k)s typically allow; they make up about 2% of the IRA market, though they've taken flak over the years for their fees and sometimes murky transparency. (See an explainer here from the North American Securities Administrators Association.)
Investments like these were popular before the housing bubble popped a few years ago, and not without reason: Used correctly, they can enable investors to capture long-term gains in their property's value, tax-free. The downsides? Well, let's just say they're plentiful. Just as in any landlord situation, management and overhead costs can devour any profits. And if you blur the line between investment and personal use – say, by renting the house to a relative – you can lose your tax benefits. Bottom line: Tread carefully.


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Great Lester Style Glass for the Drinking Bit
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I have a very limited supply of the special cordial glasses that the late Col. Bill Boley used to sell to vents who wanted to perform the drinking bit. This is NOT a gaffed or trick glass. It is a genuine cordial glass, as used by the Great Lester. It is just the exact size to do the drinking bit.
Included with this Lester style glass is Col Bill's original instruction sheet, which explains just how to do this amazing bit of business. If you saw Jeff Dunham perform the drinking bit on Johnny Carson's "Tonight Show" years ago, this is the exact type of glass he used.
PLEASE NOTE -- Glass styles may vary slightly from photo, but all hold the same amount of liquid and work the same way.
Very limited supply!
PLEASE NOTE - If you are not ordering for U.S. delivery, you MUST contact me BEFORE ordering to determine shipping options and rates. The flat rate postage fee DOES NOT APPLY to orders shipped OUTSIDE the United States. Simply send me a list of the items you wish to order and I'll get back to you with the shipping options and rates. Once you decide how you'd like the order shipped, I can send a PayPal invoice directly to you (or we can work out other payment arrangements, if necessary). Thank you!
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The Direct-Democracy-Navigator World Fact-Check (I)
The Direct Democracy Navigator is working on a new study following the main question: Why, in general terms, were referendums – initiated by authorities or by citizens - conducted in electoral democracies worldwide?
Guided by the answers given to this questions by David Butler and Austin Ranney as well as Silvano Moeckli this paper is divided into two parts. To be able to provide a well founded thesis, at first the results of the empirical fact-checks are presented according to the way the Navigator classifies direct democratic instruments. Secondly, we try to investigate the empirical data to approach the answer. As a result, the research on one hand will show that Butler/Ranney's and Moeckli's findings can be reinforced. On the other hand they need to be amended by the tradition of the political culture of a country.
On this Blog we will publish the empirical results of the research, starting with
Part I: Plebiscites
In 1994 David Butler and Austin Ranney (1) published an empirical research about the worldwide practice of referendums with their book "Referendum around the world - the growing use of direct democracy".More than 20 years later, the Direct Democracy Navigator follows in these footsteps by conducting a "World Fact-Check". It explores how often the direct democratic instruments listed in the Navigator database led to referendums during the past 20 years (1996-May 15, 2016) and why referendums were conducted.
Freedom House lists a total of 125 states as "Electoral Democracies"in their report of the year 2015. (2) The Direct Democracy Navigator includes 109 of these states with appropriate instruments (legal designs). In the researched constitutions of twelve states, no direct democratic instruments were found at the national level in Cyprus, Bangladesh, Bosnia and Herzegovina, India, Indonesia, Monaco, Norway, Papua New Guinea, Tonga, Trinidad and Tobago, Tuvalu, United States of America. In addition, there are two states which are not included for the time being due to special political circumstances (Ukraine, Kosovo). In the case of Bhutan, which is listed by Freedom House as 'electoral democracy', corresponding direct democratic constitutional rights however require the consent of the King for their implementation and are therefore excluded. Finally, the state of Pakistan does not meet the required qualifications for an entry in the Freedom House study.
The webpage of "Direkte Demokratie" is used as source for comparison with conducted polls (3). The compilation on http://www.bfs.admin.ch/bfs/portal/de/index/themen/17/03.html was used for data on Switzerland.
To summarise, in approximately 87% of the constitutional democracies, one can find forms of initiatives and/or plebiscites, and/or obligatory referendums.
(1) David Butler/Austin Ranney (Editors): Referendums around the world – the growing use of direct democracy, AEI Press, Washington, 1994
(2) The 'Direkte Demokratie'-database lists conducted referendums according to the number of poll questions. Particularly in the case of initiatives (Navigator categories: PCI/PCI +) these numbers do however not mean that as many initiatives were actually started. The question, how many initiatives were not successful will unfortunately remain unanswered
Empirical results - Part I
A minority within the minority
Although an appropriate instrument exists in 12 states (albeit topic restricted in many cases), it was conducted in only two countries, Italy and Slovenia. No corresponding votes were held in: Albania, Austria, Denmark, France, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Spain and Sweden.
- Italy
2016 Suspension of licenses for test drilling in the sea - 2006 Constitutional reform - 2001 Regionalization - 1997 Abolition of the Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries
- Slovenia
2011 Law against illegal employment; Document Protection and Archives Act - 2010 Arbitration proceedings for establishing the border with Croatia - 2005 Law of the state broadcaster RTV Slovenija - 2004 Technical law on the re-registration of people eliminated from the electoral register in 1992 - 2001 Artificial insemination for the non-married - 1999 Third steam power plant TET 3 - 1996 Electoral system for the National Assembly
2. Veto-Plebiscites (AVP)
The instrument of the veto-plebiscite (usually initiated by the President in presidential systems) is seldom used as well. In the following states, no referendum was conducted on the basis of such a legal design: Albania, Australia, East Timor, Chile, Maldives, Tunisia (1). (2)
- Iceland
2011 State guarantee for Icesave compensation fund - 2010 Amending the law of compensation for British and Dutch investors (Icesave)
- Turkey
2007 Constitutional reform
* A 'mixed instrument': the 'plebiscitary PCR' in Latvia: In Latvia citizens can in principle recall laws by a referendum law. However, this is tied to the previous 'approval' by a minority of the Parliament or the President. In this respect the Latvian scheme is structurally related to the parliamentary minority plebiscite or veto plebiscite. The listing of the referendums is included in part II of this article.
(1) In Tunisia the instrument is anchored for a few years in the new Constitution.
(2) In many cases the instrument of the veto is limited on constitutional amendments.
3. Plebiscites (ATP)
Without Switzerland!
Out of a total of 70 countries which provide this form of decision-making, more than half of the states did not use this opportunity in the past 20 years: Andorra, Antigua and Barbuda, Argentina, Australia, Barbados, Benin, Canada, Cape Verde, Comoros, Croatia, Dominican Republic, Estonia, Finland, Macedonia, Germany, Guatemala, Ireland, Latvia, Malawi, Mali, Mexico, Mongolia, Montenegro, Namibia, Nepal, Paraguay, Philippines, Senegal, Seychelles, Sierra Leone, Sâo Tomé and Príncipé , South Africa, South Korea, St. Lucia, Suriname, East Timor, and Zambia.
By law, performing plebiscites is in some cases an exceptional case, for example plebiscites can only be held on laws concerning constitutional or sovereignty issues.
Selected countries: the topics
- Ecuador
2011 More difficult suspension of pre-trial detention; Stricter requirements for alternatives to imprisonment; No investments held outside their business for banks and media companies; Temporary reorganization of judicial supervision; Mode of new judicial supervision; Prohibition of illegitimate enrichment; Prohibition of games of chance; Control of sexual and discriminatory portrayal of violence in the media; Obligatory membership in social security for employers. - 2007 Election of a Constitutional Council - 2006 Ten-year plan for education; Improving health care; Oil revenues for social and employment programs; - 1997 Election of a Constitutional Council; Election of the Constitutional Council by pure popular vote/partly from civil society organizations; Restriction of expenditure during election campaigns; Election mode: List option with/without modification possibilities; Parliamentary election during the first/second round of presidential elections. Dissolution of parties that have received less than 5 percent of the votes in two consecutive elections; Composition of the Supreme Electoral Court composed of the strongest parties; Parliament elects by a two thirds majority the heads of the state-owned enterprises; Modernization of Justice; Election of the judicial administration authorities by the Supreme Court; Loss of office for elected officials who violate laws; Implementation of reforms by the Parliament within 60 days
- Colombia
2003 Inability to hold public office for those who destroy public property; In Congress and all local assemblies voting only by roll-call; Removal of substitute candidates at all levels; Increased influence of the Congress on public law institutions; Prohibition to work at the parliamentary services for parliamentarians; Reduction of the Congress and local assemblies by a fifth; Loss of office for officers staying away from work without excuse or violation of party funding; Restriction of pensions for government employees to 25 minimum wages; Abolition of regional and local courts of auditors; No public funding of election campaigns; Released funds from the abolition of courts of auditors for education and health issues; Reallocation of funds for education and health; Freezing of public spending for two years; Loss of legal personality for parties that received less than 2% of the vote; Immediate entry into force of the reform
- Poland
2015 Election of the Sejm in one-man-constituencies; Maintaining state party funding; Tax law in doubt for the taxpayer - 2003 Accession to the European Union - 1996 Privatization program; Financing of pensions from the proceeds of privatization; Yield of privatization in public pension funds; Extension of mass privatization through the national investment fund; Privatization through coupons
- New Zealand
2015 Alternatives to the national flag (four votes) - 2011 Retention of the electoral system; Alternative to the current electoral system - 1997 Mandatory pension insurance
- Bolivia
2016 Third term for President - 2008 Confidence in the President's policies - 2006 Autonomy for departments - 2004 Repeal of the law on fossil fuels; Nationalization of fossil fuels; Financing of state-owned oil companies; President Mesas' policy to gain access to the sea; Use of profit from the sale of gas for social and infrastructure objectives
- Iceland
2012 Design of the Constitutional Commission as a basis for a new Constitution; Natural resources as public property; Position of the state church; Better selection choices for individuals; The same weight for each single vote; Introduction of citizen initiatives
- Luxembourg
2015 Lowering the voting age from 18 to 16 years; Voting rights for foreigners; Term limits for ministers - 2005 Constitution of the European Union
- Niger
2010 Constitution - 2009 Constitution - 1999 Constitution - 1996 Constitution
- Madagascar
2010 Constitution - 2007 Constitutional reform - 1998 Parliamentary elections in the spring of 2008
- Portugal
2007 Abortion law - 1998 Regionalization; Abortion law
- Romania
2009 Single-chamber parliament; Not more than 300 members - 2007 Majority voting system
- Hungary
2003 Accession to the EU - 1997 Accession to NATO
- France
2005 Constitution of the European Union - 2000 Shortening the presidential term to five years
- Georgia
2008 Parliamentary elections in the spring of 2008; Accession to NATO
- Liechtenstein
2002 Land use planning law
2000 Citizens Rights Law (easier naturalization)
- Malta
2011 Divorce for separated couples - 2003 Accession to the European Union
- Moldova
2010 Popular election of the President - 1999 More powers for the President
- Slovenia
2003 Accession to the EU; Accession to NATO
- Taiwan
2004 Negotiations with Mainland China; Procurement of new air defense missiles


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In Japanese knife making blades can be made from; 1,2 or 3 layers of steel to achieve different results.
Most Japanese kitchen knives here are made of 3 layers, call San mai. The process includes welding softer steel on the outside to the hard core steel. The Core is what makes up the edge of the knife and when we refer to the steel type this is what we are referring to. The steel on the outside is referred to as cladding. In many cases the knives made of carbon steel, the kind that can rust, have both carbon steel cladding and carbon steel core. Likewise, in a stainless knife the cladding and the core are both stainless steel. On some occasions the blacksmith will use stainless steel as the cladding on a carbon steel core. This hybrid type will allow the user the awesome performance of carbon steel with less concern of the knife rusting. Only the exposed carbon steel at the edge can rust easily and still needs to be kept dry.
2 layered knives are made with one piece of hard steel and one of soft steel. The single bevel knives that have quite specific purposes and are primarily designed for Sushi making. Their design allows for super fine slicing of fish and vegetables or the Japanese techniques if fish fileting. The are awesome but feel quite different to use.
Single steel knives make very precise, fine edged knives. They are incredibly tricky to make by hand and called "Honyaki" meaning true forged. These are some of the finest knives available. These can also be made in a factory by rolling out a blade thinly to achieve similar results.


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|Stamps: Bitty Banners, Tiny Trees (Waltzing Mouse)
Ink: Blue Danube (Memento; Christmas Red(HobbyCraft)
Font: EcuyerDax, Narkism
The layout was designed in Silhouette Studio. I scanned in the stamp sheet & used the banner stamp to get the size & position of the letters before printing out on the PC.
Then it was easy just to stamp in the right place. Simples!
This is the last one from me for a while folks. It's half term next week, so I won't have any time in my
messy corner of the conservatory craft room.
Linking to:
One Layer Wednesday: OLW90 Dudes Rule


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- Research
- Open Access
Scale and shape issues in focused cluster power for count data
© Puett et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd. 2005
- Received: 07 February 2005
- Accepted: 31 March 2005
- Published: 31 March 2005
Interest in the development of statistical methods for disease cluster detection has experienced rapid growth in recent years. Evaluations of statistical power provide important information for the selection of an appropriate statistical method in environmentally-related disease cluster investigations. Published power evaluations have not yet addressed the use of models for focused cluster detection and have not fully investigated the issues of disease cluster scale and shape. As meteorological and other factors can impact the dispersion of environmental toxicants, it follows that environmental exposures and associated diseases can be dispersed in a variety of spatial patterns. This study simulates disease clusters in a variety of shapes and scales around a centrally located single pollution source. We evaluate the power of a range of focused cluster tests and generalized linear models to detect these various cluster shapes and scales for count data.
In general, the power of hypothesis tests and models to detect focused clusters improved when the test or model included parameters specific to the shape of cluster being examined (i.e. inclusion of a function for direction improved power of models to detect clustering with an angular effect). However, power to detect clusters where the risk peaked and then declined was limited.
Findings from this investigation show sizeable changes in power according to the scale and shape of the cluster and the test or model applied. These findings demonstrate the importance of selecting a test or model with functions appropriate to detect the spatial pattern of the disease cluster.
- Power Evaluation
- Power Curve
- Pollution Dispersion
- Cluster Shape
- Disease Cluster
Over the past several years, there has been an increased interest in the detection of focused clusters of disease, or disease clusters associated with a known pollution source [1]. Along with this interest, the development and use of various cluster detection methods have grown. Wartenberg and Greenberg [2] emphasized the importance of statistical power as a criterion in the selection of appropriate method for cluster investigations. A limited number of power evaluations in the literature have examined the issues of scale or shape with regard to focused disease cluster detection. As part of a more extensive evaluation, Sun [3] examined the power of Stone's [4] and Tango's Tests [5] to detect clusters of varying size. Waller [6] described two shapes of clusters, hot spot and clinal [2], and evaluated the power of Stone's and Besag and Newell's Tests to detect these types of clusters at varying levels of aggregation. Additional focused cluster shapes also have been proposed, such as a cluster of angular shape which could result from the effect of a dominant wind dispersing environmental contaminants [7]. However, this cluster shape has not been included in previous power evaluations. Additionally, information is lacking regarding the power of generalized linear models to detect focused clusters of varying scale and shape. This investigation evaluates the power of a number of focused cluster tests and generalized linear models to detect clusters of varying scale and shape. Count data are simulated for three total numbers of events (N = 200, 500 and 1000) to represent clustering around a single, centrally located pollution source in spatial patterns consistent with pollution dispersion principles.
Focused cluster test results
Data simulated with distance decline (DD) in relative risk
Data simulated with peaked distance decline (PDD) in relative risk
Data simulated with a directional effect (DIR) in relative risk
Data simulated with a distance decline and directional effect (DDIR) in relative risk
Data simulated with a peaked distance decline and directional effect (PDDIR) in relative risk
Focused cluster model results
Comparison of the distance decline relative risk model to a model including a peaked distance decline function showed that no power was gained from adding the parameter for a peak. Power was less than 10% for all total event scenarios and variations of the α coefficients. However, better power curves resulted from other model comparisons. At values of α3 and α4 = 0.5 and 2, adding direction as a parameter to models with a function for distance decline vastly improved power for detecting clusters with distance decline and directional distributions. The increase in power was low for the addition of the directional parameter when α3 and α4 = 0.1. Similar trends were evident for the addition of parameters for a peak and for direction when compared to a distance decline only relative risk model. In general, power was high at all but the highest α1 value (α1 = 10) when α3 and α4 = 0.5 and 2. Yet, improvements in power were not very large for lower levels of α3 and α4 (α3 and α4 < 0.2).
Under certain conditions, power greatly increased when parameters were added to a directional only model. When comparing a directional only model to a model with parameters for distance decline and direction, power tended to increase with increasing α1, α3 and α4 values. However a slight decrease in power was evident at α1 = 10 for most model comparisons. The power curves were very similar to those for the comparison between a directional-only model to models with parameters for peaked distance decline and direction at lower values of α2 (α2 < 0.5). At higher levels of α2 (α2 > 0.1), power trends differed greatly, with the highest power at lowest levels of α1 and greater decreases as α1 increased to 10.
Power curves from models with parameters for peaked distance decline were also compared to models with parameters for peaked distance decline and direction. Generally, power trends were similar for the two α2 levels with power inversely related to α1 value and directly related to α3 and α4 values. The improvement in power was very low for the addition of the directional component at the lowest α3 and α4 values (α3 and α4 < 0.2).
As with previous model comparisons, the addition of a parameter for peak generally resulted in low power when parameters for distance decline and direction were already in the model. The highest power achieved was modest (about 40%) and was evident only for 1000 events at the highest values for α2, α3 and α4 values (α2 = 1, α3 and α4 = 2) at α1 = 1.
Focused cluster tests
Based on the results presented, we found that Tango's Test, the LRS Test for Distance Decline, Stone's Test and the Radial Score Test showed the most power for detecting a significant difference in relative risk simulated with DD from a centrally-located pollution source at a fixed location. As expected, power increased directly with number of total cases of disease involved in the cluster. For these tests, power also tended to increase as the slope of the DD became steeper or, in other words, as the relative risk changed more rapidly with increasing distance from the pollution source. The results of our power evaluations are not surprising as the best-performing cluster tests for detecting radial clusters with DD were generally developed for detecting these cluster shapes.
Power for detecting PDD clusters with N = 200 was generally low, with reasonable power demonstrated at N = 500 and N = 1000 for some combinations of peak distances from the pollution source and slopes of decline in risk. Evaluating the power of focused cluster tests to detect PDD clustering with peaks closest to the source revealed that the LRS Test for Distance Decline, Tango's Test, Stone's Test and the Radial Score Test showed the highest power among the tests evaluated. Power generally increased for these tests as the slope of the cluster became steeper. This trend reversed as peaks increased in distance from the pollution source so that power generally decreased as the slope became steeper. The Radial Score Test demonstrated the most power for detecting peaks furthest from the pollution source for N = 500 and N = 1000, while Besag and Newell's Test performed best for N = 200.
Supporting our hypothesis that focused cluster tests containing functions appropriate to the spatial pattern of pollution dispersion would be more powerful, the LRS test for direction and the Directional Score Tests revealed the most power for detecting focused clusters with DIR. Power increased for these tests with increased number of total events and as the angle of effect became more pronounced.
For data simulated with DDIR, the LRS Test for Direction performed best with wider angles of effect and the flattest declines in slope. But as the angle of effect became stronger, the LRS Test for Direction was powerful at all slopes. Overall, power to detect clusters with a DDIR distribution generally increased with narrower angles of effect and as the total number of events simulated increased. As the slope of the decline became steeper, Tango's Test, LRS Test for Distance Decline, Stone's Test and the Radial Score Test showed comparable power. Power for the Directional Score Test greatly improved with stronger angles of effect, becoming one of the best-performing tests for all slope levels. To summarize the power evaluation results for detecting DDIR clusters, directional tests demonstrated the most power with flatter declines in cluster slopes; whereas the radial distance decline tests were more powerful with steeper declines in slope. Both types of test improved with narrowing angles of effect. With those cluster patterns, directional tests became more powerful at all slope levels and distance decline tests remained powerful with steeper slopes.
In order to simulate data with clusters of PDDIR, only one component was added to the simulation equation for clusters of DDIR: α2 * log(d). Therefore, as one would expect, at very low values of α2 (e.g. 0.005), the results of power evaluations for detecting PDDIR clusters were very similar to those for detecting DDIR clusters. However, as α2 values increased, or as the peak of the cluster increased in distance from the pollution source, findings differed. With the widest angles, overall power for detecting PDDIR with N = 200 was low. At these same angles, the Radial Score Test proved best for detecting clustering with N = 500 and N = 1000. This test decreased in power with increasing steepness of slope. As the angle of the directional effect narrowed, the LRS Test for Direction and the Directional Score Test also showed comparable power, particularly with a greater number of events. The power for these tests decreased as the cluster slope flattened. Interestingly, the Radial Score Test also followed this trend and demonstrated power second only to the directional tests. These results show that although the Radial Score Test could detect DIR effects combined with PDD effects, it was generally less powerful than directional tests at the narrowest angles of effect.
Focused cluster models
Overall, the addition of model parameters for peaks did not appear to contribute to improved power, particularly when a distance decline parameter was already included in the model. Only at α1 < 1, or the flattest slope, did the null versus peaked distance decline model comparison show higher power than the null versus distance decline model comparison. Also, very low power resulted when comparing the distance decline only model to the peaked distance decline model and when adding a parameter for peak to models already containing distance decline and directional parameters. Lastly, the power curves in which only a directional component was added are very similar to those resulting from the addition of peaked and directional components. Low power to detect a peaked distance decline cluster of elevated risk may be related to the variation in relative risk. For example, Figure 3 shows higher power for lower values of α1 when α2 = 1. For α2 = 1, the range of relative risk is much greater at lower values of α1 and decreased directly with α1.
The addition of a directional parameter improved the power of tests from models, particularly for detecting disease clusters distributed over narrower angles of effect. Evidence of this outcome was provided by the power curves resulting from the comparison between the model of null relative risk and the model with a directional component. When a directional parameter was added to distance decline models and to peaked distance decline models, power was very high for clustering with gentler declines (α1 < 2) and narrower angles (α3 and α4 > 0.1). However, power tended to decrease as α1 increased from 2 to 10 and as the angle of effect widened, or as α3 and α4 increased.
Similarly, distance decline also appears to be an important parameter to include in focused cluster models, with respect to power. In opposition to the directional component, parameters for distance decline appeared most beneficial with clusters of steeper declines (larger α1 values). However, this observation may be due to the main effect extending outside the window of the simulated region for clusters with gentler declines. Comparison of the null model to the distance decline model showed power generally increasing as the steepness of the cluster slope increased. Also, the addition of a parameter for distance decline to a directional model showed similar power curves. One interesting effect in many of the model comparisons involving a distance decline parameter was the decrease in power from α1 = 2 to α1 = 10. This may be caused by the steepness of the slope resulting in fewer data points demarcating the decline in slope. As the number of observations decreases, power will also decrease.
Overall conclusions
Though a variety of spatial scales and shapes of clusters were examined, further power evaluations are needed in order to explore fully the range of disease clustering that could result from various pollution dispersion spatial patterns. Given the overall finding that more complex spatial cluster patterns can be more difficult to detect, the development and use of additional sampling schemes for power evaluations of these clusters would be beneficial. We chose to simulate three total numbers of events because count data are typically most accessible in cluster investigations. Work is currently underway to examine power for case-event data, however further investigations are needed to examine a greater range of total numbers of events for count data. Smaller numbers of total events are of particular importance in cluster investigations of rare diseases or sparsely populated areas. A number of variations were examined for the four α coefficients, yet a more comprehensive range of coefficients, representing additional changes in shape and scale, would provide important information. Other spatial components also should be examined, such as azimuth, which could be of primary concern for air pollution sources located in valleys. Additionally, these power evaluations were performed simulating dispersion from a single, centrally-located pollution source. Further power evaluations are needed to address cluster detection in situations where pollutants are dispersed from multiple sources. Williams and Ogston [8] compared observed and simulated spatial distributions of environmental exposures. Additional comparisons between measured levels of environmental pollutant spatial dispersion with those simulated here would also be useful in evaluating the accuracy of spatial functions in a variety of situations. Similar power evaluations of focused cluster tests and models using individual-level data are also needed to improve cluster investigation techniques, and work in this area is proceeding.
Sample Monte Carlo standard errors for focused cluster tests with N = 1000
Radial Score Test
DIR Score Test
Besag and Newell's Test (k= 7)
Cuzick and Edwards' Test (k= 7)
Tango's Test (τ= 5)
LRS DIR Test
LRS DD Test
Stone's Test
α1 = 0.005
α1 = 0.05
α1 = 0.1
α1 = 1
α1 = 2
α1 = 10
α3 and α4 = 0.005
α3 and α4 = 0.1
α3 and α4 = 0.2
α3 and α4 = 0.5
α3 and α4 = 1
α3 and α4 = 2
PKDD α1 = 0.005
α2 = 0.05
α2 = 0.1
α2 = 0.5
α2 = 1
Sample Monte Carlo standard errors for fitted models with N = 1000
Null vs. DD
α1 = 0.005
α1 = 0.05
α1 = 0.1
α1 = 1
α1 = 2
α1 = 10
Standard Error
Null vs. DIR
α 3 and α4 = 0.005
α3 and α4 = 0.1
α3 and α4 = 0.2
α3 and α4 = 0.5
α3 and α4 = 1
α3 and α4 = 2
Standard Error
Null vs. PKDD α1 = 0.005
α2 = 0.05
α2 = 0.1
α2 = 0.5
α2 = 1
Standard Error
This study examined the power of a number of focused cluster tests and generalized linear models to detect a wide range of simulated focused cluster shapes and scales. The results of this study provide information that can improve the choice of statistical method in focused cluster investigations. To summarize the overall findings from this investigation:
1) Focused cluster tests and tests from models containing functions appropriate to the spatial pattern of pollution dispersion are more powerful. DIR tests were more powerful detecting clusters with narrower angles of effect and DD tests were more powerful detecting clusters with steeper declines in slope.
2) Power increased with stronger DD (steeper slopes) and DIR (narrower angles) effects.
3) Power for detecting clusters with peaked effect patterns was generally low.
Data simulation
As count data are generally more widely available in disease mapping studies than individual-level data, count data were simulated for this study. A basic Poisson model was assumed for the counts: y i ~ Poisson(e i θ i ), where an expected count e i is modified by a relative risk θ i and y i , i = 1,...,M, is the count of disease in the ith region. Clusters of three sizes (N = 200, 500 and 1000 events) were simulated from the multinomial distribution, where the probability of a case in the ith region is .
Five shapes of clusters were simulated, including: 1) distance decline, where risk declines with increasing radial distance from the pollution source (DD, Model 1, Additional File 1: Simulated models of the five focused cluster shapes); 2) peaked distance decline, where risk peaks and then declines with increasing radial distance from the source (PDD, Model 2, Additional File 1); 3) direction, increasing disease risk in a particular angular direction from the pollution source (DIR, Model 3, Additional File 1); 4) distance decline combined with a directional effect (DDIR, Model 4, Additional File 1); and 5) peaked distance decline combined with a directional effect (PDDIR, Model 5, Additional File 1). These shapes correspond to frequently encountered air pollution dispersion patterns from point sources. For instance, shape 1 typifies dispersion from a ground level source with a relatively uniform distribution of wind directions, shape 3 represents ground level dispersion with a dominant wind direction and shape 5 represents dispersion from an elevated source with a dominant wind direction.
The count data simulated for these five cluster shapes under the alternative hypothesis as well as data simulated under the null hypothesis of randomly distributed counts of disease were assigned to regional centroids of a 16*16 unit square grid. The grid of 256 regions of uniform size and shape, unitless in geographic terms, also contained a centrally located pollution source. Expected disease rates were considered to be uniform throughout the regions composing the simulated study area. The model for the relative risk at location x, θ(x, β) represents the relationship between the pollution source and spatial distribution of associated disease, for some choice of parameters β. As shown in Additional File 1: Simulated models of the five focused cluster shapes, coefficients in the model equations were varied in order to represent further variations of scale for the five main cluster shapes (DD, PDD, DIR, DDIR, and PDDIR).
Power evaluation methods for focused cluster tests
In this study, we evaluated the power to detect the five general cluster shapes for eight widely known focused cluster tests, including: Stone's Maximum Likelihood Test [4], the focused adaptation of Besag and Newell's Test [1], Cuzick and Edwards' Test [9], Tango's Focused Test [5], variations of the Lawson-Waller Score Test [7, 10], and variations of Bithell's Linear Risk Score (LRS) Test [11]. Power was evaluated through the use of Monte Carlo significance testing with 100 datasets simulated under the null hypothesis and 100 datasets simulated under each alternative hypothesis (i.e., each variation of cluster shape, size and scale). The formulations used for each test are briefly described.
For Stone's Maximum Likelihood Test [4] (hereafter referred to as Stone's Test), we selected a number of distances (d1,...,d k ) as bins and placed regions falling between these distances in the appropriate bin. Stone's Test was then defined as follows:
For the purposes of this investigation, the focused cluster adaptation of Besag and Newell's Test [1], Waller and Lawson reference} was defined as: M = min(i : D i ≥ k), where D i is the number of cases accumulated among i regions and k is defined as the number of cases specified to define a cluster. Four variations of k (2, 4, 7 and 10) were evaluated.
In the one sample approach of Cuzick and Edwards' Test [9], data are ordered by distance to cluster center; and the test statistic is defined as:
where n0 is the number of regions required until we have k events (k = the number of cases designating a cluster). We examined four values of k: 2, 4, 7 and 10. The application of this test involves the construction of increasingly larger circles around the point source of interest until the number of cases in the regions contained by the circle equals k cases.
We applied the following formulation of Tango's Focused Test [5]:
C F = A(r - p),
where, A is a vector with ith element given by a i = exp(-d i /τ), d i = distance of the i th region centroid from the pollution source, and r and p are vectors with ith element y i / N and e i / N respectively. For the purposes of this study, τ was defined as 1 and 5.
Bithell [11] indicates that LRS Tests can incorporate various functions of distance and rank to describe exposure. We applied functions of distance decline and direction, as described by Lawson [7], to represent exposure to environmental contaminants from a centrally located pollution source. Bithell's LRS Test statistic formulation [11] is described as:
where θ1iis the area-specific relative risk based on the alternative hypothesis. We therefore defined:
Two formulations of the Lawson-Waller Score Test [7, 10] also were evaluated. We applied the Radial Distance Decline Score Test as defined by Lawson [7]:
Lawson's [7] formulation of the Directional Score test also was used:
where μ is the mean angle estimated under the null hypothesis during model fitting; however, during data simulation, was selected.
Power evaluation methods for focused cluster tests from models
Model comparisons
Base Model
Spatial Distribution Function of Alternative Model
Base Model Observed Dataset
More Explicit Model Observed Dataset
Distance Decline
Relative Risk = 1
Distance Decline Relative Risk
Relative Risk = 1
Directional Relative Risk
Peaked Distance Decline
Relative Risk = 1
Peaked Distance Decline Relative Risk
Distance Decline and Direction
Relative Risk = 1
Distance Decline and Direction Relative Risk
Peaked Distance Decline and Direction
Relative Risk = 1
Peaked Distance Decline and Direction Relative Risk
Distance Decline
Distance Decline and Direction
Distance Decline Relative Risk
Distance Decline and Direction Relative Risk
Distance Decline
Peaked Distance Decline
Distance Decline Relative Risk
Distance Decline and Direction Relative Risk
Distance Decline
Peaked Distance Decline and Direction
Distance Decline Relative Risk
Peaked Distance Decline and Direction Relative Risk
Distance Decline and Direction
Directional Relative Risk
Distance Decline and Direction Relative Risk
Peaked Distance Decline and Direction
Directional Relative Risk
Peaked Distance Decline and Direction Relative Risk
Peaked Distance Decline
Peaked Distance Decline and Direction
Peaked Distance Decline Relative Risk
Peaked Distance Decline and Direction Relative Risk
Distance Decline and Direction
Peaked Distance Decline and Direction
Distance Decline and Direction Relative Risk
Peaked Distance Decline and Direction Relative Risk
We would like to acknowledge the support of NIH grant 5R01CA092693-2 which has supported the authors during the development and completion of this work.
Authors' Affiliations
- Besag J, Newell J: The Detection of Clusters in Rare Diseases. J R Stat Soc Ser A-Stat Soc. 1991, 154: 143-155.View ArticleGoogle Scholar
- Wartenberg D, Greenberg M: Detecting disease clusters: the importance of statistical power. Am J Epidemiol. 1990, 132: S156-66.PubMedGoogle Scholar
- Sun Y: Determining the size of spatial clusters in focused tests: Comparing two methods by means of simulation in a GIS. J Geograph Syst. 2002, 4: 359-370. 10.1007/s101090300094.View ArticleGoogle Scholar
- Stone RA: Investigations of excess environmental risks around putative sources: statistical problems and a proposed test. Stat Med. 1988, 7: 649-660.PubMedView ArticleGoogle Scholar
- Tango T: A class of tests for detecting 'general' and 'focused' clustering of rare diseases. Stat Med. 1995, 14: 2323-2334.PubMedView ArticleGoogle Scholar
- Waller LA: Statistical power and design of focused clustering studies. Stat Med. 1996, 15: 765-782. 10.1002/(SICI)1097-0258(19960415)15:7/9<765::AID-SIM248>3.3.CO;2-E.PubMedView ArticleGoogle Scholar
- Lawson AB: On the analysis of mortality events associated with a prespecified fixed point. J R Stat Soc Ser A Stat Soc. 1993, 156: 363-377.PubMedView ArticleGoogle Scholar
- Williams FL, Ogston SA: Identifying populations at risk from environmental contamination from point sources. Occup Environ Med. 2002, 59: 2-8. 10.1136/oem.59.1.2.PubMedPubMed CentralView ArticleGoogle Scholar
- Cuzick J, Edwards R: Methods for investigating localized clustering of disease. Clustering methods based on k nearest neighbour distributions. IARC Sci Publ. 1996, 53-67.Google Scholar
- Waller LA, Turnbull BW, Clark LC, Nasca P: Chronic disease surveillance and testing of clustering of disease and exposure: Application to leukemia incidence and TCE-contaminated dumpsites in upstate New York. Environmetrics. 1992, 3: 281-300.View ArticleGoogle Scholar
- Bithell JF: The choice of test for detecting raised disease risk near a point source. Stat Med. 1995, 14: 2309-2322.PubMedView ArticleGoogle Scholar
This article is published under license to BioMed Central Ltd. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.


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An inside look at how RC transmitters work
By Gerry Yarrish Photos By Pete Hall
Learn how to Link, Bind, or ID Setup your Aurora 9 to an Optima series receiver in this video clinic.
Learn how to bind/I.D. Link your Minima series receiver to an AFHSS-equipped 2.4GHz Hitec transmitter.


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- From first principles in terms of how economic theory suggests we should regulate the financial sector;
- In a comparative manner, relating the proposed reforms to those that were undertaken in the 1930s following the Great Depression;
- How the proposed reforms would have fared in preventing and dealing with the crisis of 2007 to 2009 had they been in place at the time.
A critical assessment of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act
by Viral Acharya, Thomas F. Cooley, Matthew Richardson, Richard Sylla and Ingo Walter
The global crisis started in US financial markets (Cecchetti 2007). US financial reform was thus always going to be a central pillar in the world's effort to avoid such crises in the future (Baldwin and Eichengreen 2008, Reinhart 2008, Acharya and Richardson 2009). After long deliberation and political haggling, the reform is finally ready in the form of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act of 2010. This is widely described as the most ambitious and far-reaching overhaul of financial regulation in the US since the 1930s. Together with other regulatory reforms introduced by the Securities and Exchange Commission, the Federal Reserve (the Fed), and other regulators in the US and Europe, it is going to change the structure of financial markets in profound ways.
In our forthcoming book, Regulating Wall Street: The Dodd-Frank Act and the New Architecture of Global Finance, we provide our overall assessment of the legislation in three different ways:
Read the full opinion editorial on VoxEU.org.
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Tour Description
Looking for something to do for the holiday or during a special event happening around Ybor City? Come and join us for a Holiday Food Tour.
During the course of the year, Ybor City will hold several functions that celebrate the town. Many of these events bring people from all over the world and locally to attend.
Some of these events include: The Cuban Sandwich Festival, Gasparilla International Film Festival, Ybor City Holiday Tree Lighting, and many more.
Our next upcoming Special Events Tour will celebrate the Christmas Holiday as we join in all the festivities with YBor City on November 19, 2014. This holiday event is held by Snow on 7th. For more details concerning the event itself, visit them at www.snowon7th.com. There will be plenty of activities for the entire family to enjoy all day.
Ybor City Food Tours will also be celebrating as we join along and take you on a holiday food adventure with surprises and gifts for everyone. Please book early for this tour as this tour will usually sell-out well in advance of that date.
We look forward to leading you on a journey where you will be sure to remember! Click "Buy Tickets" below or call us at 800-979-3370.


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Larry Kent
Born in Johannesburg, 1933. Went to school 1944-1949, St Mark's School in 'Mbabane, Swaziland. Took an apprenticeship as a printer in Johannesburg from 1950-1955. In 1956, traveled to the UK, worked at Oxford University Press, and hitchhiked all over Europe for a portion of the same year. In 1957, came to North America, went to Vancouver, and met Mary Thomas. Married her in 1960. Has two daughters and two grand daughters. Went to University of British Columbia 1960-1964.
First four films made at UBC between 1962-1964. Most recent film was made last year in Vancouver. In 1960s and 1970s Montreal, made eight films, including my notorious feature High, and the first Quebec bilingual film, Fleur Bleu. Met my producer Peri Creticos in 1984, and started Palama Film Productions with him in 1986. Their first feature was Mothers and Daughters, followed by Hamster Cage, and now She Who Must Burn..
Peri Creticos is a veteran restauranteur who has a passion for movie-making. His dad taught him about the business before he could walk and he continues to operate in this area. After studying film theory forever Palama Films was formed with partner Larry Kent born out of a desire to make bold, original type movies.


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A note from the editor: Jelly Deals is a deals site launched by our parent company, Gamer Network, with a mission to find the best bargains out there. Look out for the Jelly Deals roundup of reduced-price games and kit every Saturday on Eurogamer.
So that was January. I spent its last weeks playing an absolute ton of Resident Evil 7 which, at times, honestly felt like the Evil Dead game we all deserve. Regardless, it's February now and we're here for another batch of gaming deals, the best of the past seven or so days. Let's get to it.
As is the norm, we've got deals that'll work in the UK, deals that'll work in the US and some deals that will work in both the UK and US, as well as presumably many other places.


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I'm resurrecting and revising an old post because the ideas here have been coming to mind again and again recently. As alluded to in the title of this post, in Alma 32:21 Alma teaches that "faith is not to have a perfect knowledge of things; therefore if ye have faith ye hope for things which are not seen, which are true."
My experience of faith is that it's an exercise of trust in and commitment to ideas that either we know are true or that we have sufficient evidence to believe are true. Elder Maxwell was often fond of quoting Austin Farrar in speaking about C. S. Lewis and the importance of evidence:
"Though argument does not create conviction, lack of it destroys belief. What seems to be proved may not be embraced; but what no one shows that ability to defend is quickly abandoned. Rational argument does not create belief, but it maintains a climate in which belief may flourish" (cited in Neal A. Maxwell, "Discipleship and Scholarship," BYU Studies 32/3 (summer 1992): 5).
But there is much that while we have evidence to believe it to be true, we don't know for sure. I love the sentiment of Terryl Givens that there is a sort of virtue even in doubt:
"It would seem that among those who vigorously pursue the life of the mind in particular, who are committed to the scholarly pursuit of knowledge and rational inquiry, faith is as often a casualty as it is a product. The call to faith is a summons to engage the heart, to attune it to resonate in sympathy with principles and values and ideals that we devoutly hope are true, and to have reasonable but not certain grounds for believing them to be true. I am convinced that there must be grounds for doubt as well as belief in order to render the choice more truly a choice—and, therefore, the more deliberate and laden with personal vulnerability and investment. The option to believe must appear on our personal horizon like the fruit of paradise, perched precariously between sets of demands held in dynamic tension. One is, it would seem, always provided with sufficient materials out of which to fashion a life of credible conviction or dismissive denial. We are acted upon, in other words, by appeals to our personal values, our yearnings, our fears, our appetites, and our egos. What we choose to embrace, to be responsive to, is the purest reflection of who we are and what we love. That is why faith, the choice to believe, is, in the final analysis, an action that is positively laden with moral significance."
My personal judgment is that there is limited clear "data" or "fact" around homosexuality. Scientific research around homosexuality certainly doesn't support as clean and clear of an idea that people are "born that way" as the superficial pop cultural paradigm would have us believe. While there's evidence of a weak contribution of biological factors to homosexuality, twin studies alone demonstrate that people are not predetermined to be homosexual and that there are likely a host of other contributing factors. New Zealand biochemist and geneticist Neil E. Whitehead has noted his conclusion based on the seven largest twin registry studies that homosexuality is
"mostly caused neither by genetics (weak to modest influence) nor direct shared environment (very weak), but by many nonshared individualistic events and reactions, none of which is more than a small minority of total influences, and may well be differing reactions to shared environment."
I note this to say that there's no clear, linear "cause" of homosexuality and that there are a number of dynamic factors that play into how our sexuality expresses itself—that even the concept of having a "sexual orientation" in the fixed, predetermined way in which we conceptualize it is a more of a modern social construction than it is a biopsychosexual "truth." There are a number of possible narratives that provide a framework through which we interpret and integrate our sexual experience into a broader, more nuanced and complex personal identity.
From my earliest conscious recollections of my attractions to other men, I've never bought into the narrative that people are "born gay" and thus need to pursue a same-sex romantic relationship in order to be "true to myself." It's always felt too simplistic and dissonant with my own inner sense of human truth—to say nothing of the spiritual testimony I was slowly gaining of principles of the Restored Gospel. Even so, the feelings are deep and difficult to really understand and sort through, requiring a high level of maturity and self-awareness to respond to them well and healthily, and there was a time when I doubted there was a way to happily live within the framework of Church teachings, which was only compounded by the fact I hadn't seen any real models of what I hoped was possible. As I've noted elsewhere, I reached a point where I decided to start dating guys as part of my process of figuring things out.
During this time I had some poignant spiritual impressions that changed my heart from questioning my desire to remain in the Church to moving fully forward in it, and I did so with the expectation that I would never marry in this life. And I was perfectly okay with that. It didn't seem ideal, but I trusted that whatever was "right"—and I wasn't exactly sure what that looked like—would be realized in time or eternity through the Lord's help. But I was sure it didn't include marriage in this life. The idea of marriage to a woman—or at least of feeling really attracted and connected within that marriage—seemed absolutely foreign to me.
That realization was incredibly liberating and empowering. For a while. Then, I think I started feeling a little too comfortable there, because on one occasion—I still remember the feeling so well—I was severely rebuked by the Spirit. It was impressed upon me that if I was to exercise true faith in the Lord, the decision to not marry in this life was not mine to make. That I was to be open to moving forward in faith and within gospel covenant if that was the case, and that all blessings of the gospel would eventually be mine if I were not to marry in this life, but that I needed to actively prepare myself emotionally, spiritually, and mentally for both the possibilities that marriage and family might come in this sphere of existence and that they might not.
I was humbled.
It was some time after that that I was really struggling for some divine guidance in my life. I was feeling some confusion around this issue because of some deep emotional connections I was feeling with another guy. It hurt that I couldn't have what a piece of me really wanted. I needed some Comfort.
It was general conference time, so I wrote down some of my then most heartfelt questions and went into the first session of conference fasting. I timed it so that my fast would end as soon as that first session ended, so I was right at the end of my fast. As soon as the opening prayer was shared, I felt this spiritual feeling completely envelop me; I hardly remember anything that was said during the session, but the feeling I had was unlike anything I've ever felt. For nearly the whole two hours, all the hurt, the pain, the confusion, the frustration… was completely gone. In it's place was this feeling of divine Love I had also never experienced. As a part of that, there was a feeling of what I perceived as pure Celestial Love and desire to be with a daughter of God in the most holy and connected and uniting of ways. The way even heterosexual love and romance is commonly portrayed or expressed today seems so cheap and "false" in comparison.
And with the feeling came the voice: "Just stay with me. If you do, this is the feeling you will feel someday. And it will be eternal."
At about the time of the closing prayer of that conference session, the feeling left. Completely. There was still some resonance as I pondered on it, but the feeling itself was largely gone. The only way I can describe it is as a "vision" of feeling. Along with the brief and very clear spiritual communication. Then, the "vision" ended.
I occasionally had glimpses of that feeling following the experience—usually brief reminders that have come through other spiritual experiences—but nothing so complete or long in duration. Slowly, however, over time, as I've sought the Spirit in my life, seeking to become the kind of love I felt in that vision, I could feel a slow transformation taking place within me. Finally, about 6 or 7 years after the "vision" I had, I met my wife and everything fell into place and I felt almost immediately that we would get married. I started to sense marriage was coming "sooner than later" before we started dating.
I'm clearly conscious of the fact that I have nowhere near "arrived" in my spiritual journey, but the way I feel today is so dramatically different than where I felt years before that I've often thought of the words in Alma 32:21 that faith is not just hope for things which are not seen, which are true, but that faith is hope for things which are not felt which are true. Humans are emotional creatures and are more often prone to make decisions based on emotion than reason—as much as we might like to think of ourselves as rational creatures. So much of how we feel today may not be true tomorrow, or next month, or next year. As a therapist I hear all the time clients say something to the effect that they didn't know when they started therapy that they could come to feel as they do—that new vistas of awareness and feeling and being have opened up that they weren't previous aware were possible. This is not a sexuality thing—it's a human thing, regardless of what presenting concerns or issues may be.
I share this because of the profound lesson I learned during that time: that authentic faith in God includes trust in things that are not seen—or felt—which are true. Which are possible. Perhaps part of the realization of those feelings comes with some good therapy (some of which I've had and felt spiritually guided to, and of lot of things have changed dramatically for me since then, though I'm still not where I eventually hope to be); perhaps part of it comes through spiritual transformation of the heart, and according to the Lord's own will and timing. And according to the things He would best see fit for us to learn during this brief mortal stint.
"And now as I said concerning faith–faith is not to have a perfect knowledge of things; therefore if ye have faith ye hope for things which are not seen, which are true" (Alma 32:21).
"And now, I, Moroni, would speak somewhat concerning these things; I would show unto the world that faith is things which are hoped for and not seen; wherefore, dispute not because ye see not, for ye receive no witness until after the trial of your faith" (Ether 12:6).
The Lord speaks to us individually and works with us differently. Perhaps even our own eternal purposes might be different—though I suspect our individual purposes in the end are likely what we choose and want them to be. That is the essence of agency.
It's true that if we don't want a family it's certainly nothing the Lord will force upon us. And if the celestial kingdom is divided into the three heavens or degrees, and if the highest of those degrees of glory is for those to choose the path of eternal increase, it stands to reason that one can still go to the celestial kingdom, provided they continually strive to purify their hearts and follow the Lord's law.
My hope in sharing this is to give perspective on what I believe to be an important and eternal principle: exercising hope and faith and belief in something that right now may feel very foreign to us. I suspect that all of God's children—regardless of the nature of their attractions or other mortal circumstances—will experience some mighty transformations as they become more celestial that will open their eyes to very different ways of feeling, understanding, and being in the eternities. To deny such, especially when we know that God's ways are not our ways, nor our thoughts His thoughts, is to be myopic and small-minded.
To state modern translation of Isaiah 56:
"And let not the eunuch say, I am but a barren tree. For thus says the Lord: As for the eunuchs who keep my Sabbaths and choose to do what I will–holding fast to my covenant–to them will I give a handclasp and a name within the walls of my house that is better than sons and daughters; I will endow them with an everlasting name that shall not be cut off."
In God's time and way, many a bare tree will bear much fruit.


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For anyone who cares to read it, there is a downloadable copy of the 1910-11 St. Petersburg University Student Handbook available from the Museum of the History of St. Petersburg University.
It is, of course, in Russian.
Friday, October 31, 2014
Thursday, October 30, 2014
(I. Lyman)
Based on "Circular on the Management of the Odessa School District"
Sinai/Sinaysky Moses—Class VII
Solomon Samsonov Basil (or Berdichev Solomon Samsonov Basil)—Class I
Dzhurasovich Lazar—Class II
Veysman Mendel, Suplin Abraham—Class III
Printz Sumuil—Class IV
Zhitomirsky Solomon—Class V
Litvak Yakov, Machkovsky Mark—Class VI
Gekker Nakhim, Neyfeld Avraam, Pekatoras Georgy, Rozenblyum Aleksandr, Trivus Moisey, Zavatsky Filipp,--Class VII
Osadshi Viktor, Sauskan Avraam—Class VIII
February, 1882
Mintz Albert, Fogel Mordechai—Class I
Miller Yakov—Class II
Pamulov Aaron—Class III
Pozumentirow Mordechai—Class VIII
March 1882
Tsatskin Genokh/Henoch—Class VI
Kovalsky Lev, Parashchuk Semen—Preparatory Class
Khomsky//Chomsky Leyba, Luryev Feyvus—Class I
Botvinnikov Yudel, Mazin Izrail—Class II
Mulman Aleksandr—Class III
Lyubich David—Class IV
Berger Gitman—Class VI
Khavkin Gersh—Class III
Potozny Leyba—Class V
Berdichev/Berdichevsky Abram—Class VI
Litvak Abram—Class I
Ozenblyug Carl, Galagan Jacob-Class II
Pinsky Nikolay—Class III
Volkovich Veniamin, Novgorodsky Mordkho, Khmelnitsky Boris, Podeysky Aleksandr, Teneta Viktor, Khaykin/Chaikin Mark—Class IV
Zak Yefroim/Efron—Class V
Zilberger,Yakov, Meytus/Meitus Moses—Class III
Gerstenberger Henry/Genrikh—Class V
Buchstab Michael, Abramovich Samuil
Pampulov/Pampulha Moisey—Class II
Chernyakov/Chernyak Samuil—Class V
Bronshteyn Naum—Class VI
Brodsky Iuda/Judah-Leyba—Class V
Sokolov Lev
Yampolsky Moisey
Takachirev Aaron
Posted by Marilyn Robinson (aka Jewish Gem) at 10/30/2014 09:52:00 PM
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Location: Berdyans'k, Zaporiz'ka oblast, Ukraine
Wednesday, October 29, 2014
1879-1880 Kharkiv Imperial University Students' List (incl. Foreigners)
Erenburg Gershovich Lazar
Venderovich Leonid Davidovich
Rubinshteyn Yuna (Jonah??) Yakovlevich
Rubinshteyn Iosif Adolfovich
Medical School:
First Course--
Arshavshy Aron Moiseyevich
Bogoslovk Meyer Mordkhovich
Gimmelfarb Yakov Fraimovyach/Froimovich
Gubergrits Isaiya/Isaiah Mordokhovich
Gurfinkel Anton Lvovich
Zelyianov Mendel Girshovich
Krichevsk/Krichevski Leiba Vulfovich
Levipson Carl Naftalovich
Mamrov Avram Aronovich
Naymer Avraam Beynshovich
Nemirovsky Gersh Shimonovich
Rabinovich Samizdat/Samson Zyndelevich
Sabsovich Isaak Yusifsvich
Sabsovich Isaak Yankelevich
Sabsovich Alexan. Iosifovich
Sandomirsky Berko Izrailevich
Khalfiye/Khalfin Shlem-Movsha Mordkovich
Shlyapochnikov Mikhel Usherovich
Enelis Nesan Berkovich
Second Course—
Valter Vlad—ir Grigrevich
Vertman Genekh/Henry Izrailevich
Gidalevich Avraam Yakovlevich
GovseevGovseyev Albert Akimovich
Goldfeld Moisei Avraamovich
Grinberg Abram Moiseyevich
Kerner Grigory Samsonovich
Yanovsky/Janowski Gersh Aronovich
Third Course--
Bomash Dav Shalomovich
Davidovich Grigory Abramovich
Dubrov Isaak Nikelevich
Klauzman/Klausman Isaak Moiseevich
Kolotukhov Gersh-Alter Berkovich
Fourth Course--
Grinberg Getsel Monseevich (Moisyevich??)
Nemirovsky Iosif Yakovlevich
Ochakovsky Moshka Nakhmanovich
History & Philology:
Lurye/Lurie David
Dept. of Physics & Chemistry (??):
First Course—
Ilyev Izrail
Faculty of Law:
Second Course—
Genelis Noah/Noi
According to the Medical Faculty:
First Course—
Abramsky Savvatsh
Abrutin Izidor
Averbakh Zakharsh
Babad David
Brodski Yakov
Vaisbrod Yakov
Geshelin Mark
Gomberg Zelman
Goddenberg Soloshzh
Dikanshy Yakov
Dubinsksh Vladia__
Zaslavshi Abram
Deva Izrail
Mandelshtam Yosif
Polopksh Gerts
Reikhsfeld Grigorsh
Shvartsian Grigorsh
Second Course—
Kadanov Jacob/Yakov
Shuldiner Samuil
Engel Moisey
Engel Grigory
Third Course—
Kosinsky Eugene
Reznikov Yakov
Fourth Course—
Knepler Gdal
Kreyzler Boris
Apothecary Assistant:
First Course—
Pisarevsky Moisey
Shiperovich Lev
Posted by Marilyn Robinson (aka Jewish Gem) at 10/29/2014 10:30:00 AM
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Location: Kharkiv, Kharkiv Oblast, Ukraine
Friday, October 24, 2014
Martin Sugarman in his article, Against Fascim-Jews Who Served in The International Brigade in the Spanish Civil War, discusses the role that Jews from various countries played in the conflict. He offers extremely extensive lists of Jews who participated (some of the brigades had individuals from various countries):
The British Brigade
The Jaroslav Dombrowski Brigade
Abraham Lincoln/Washington Brigade: The American Volunteers
Medical listed separately—Doctors, Nurses, Dentists,
Ambulance Drivers
War Correspondents
The Mackenzie-Papineau Battalion—Canada
The Latvian Volunteers
Franco-Belge Brigade
George Dimitrov (from Yugoslavia, Czechoslovakia, Bulgaria, and other---mostly Sephardim)
Austria—includes medical, combatants lists
Thaelmann Battalion (Germany)
Other Lists
Please see the article for the names.
Posted by Marilyn Robinson (aka Jewish Gem) at 10/24/2014 05:40:00 PM
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Labels: JEWISH, Jewish Soldiers, Jews, Military, SPAIN, Spanish Civil War
Location: Spain
Thursday, October 23, 2014
1880-1919 TSGIAK (Ukrainian Archives): Criminal Court
(Central Historical Archives of Ukraine, Kiev)
Fond 318 Kiev Court of Justice
(Fonds of the Court and the Prosecutor's Office)
Criminal Dept., 1880-1906
* RSDRP: Russian Social Democratic Labor Party—"A revolutionary socialist political party formed in 1898 in Minsk to unite various revolutionary organisations of the Russian empire into one party." (Wikipedia)
Inventory/Opis 1, vol. 1, Case/Delo 89, 197 sheets: Case against inhabitants of Rozheva Radmyslsky dist. of Kiev Province. Wechsler IE, Duvidova O., et al. for resisting officials of the excise dept., 1898-1899.
Inv. 1, vol.1. Case 376, 44 sheets: Case against a citizen of Gorshike Ovruchsky County, Volhynia. Rogalya FG for speaking against the czar. 1905
Inv. 1, vol. 2, Case 1222, Case against a teacher in Berdichev vocational school, Fuchs RI, who possessed illegal literature (leaflets, newspaper of the RSDRP*, etc.). 1907-1912.
Inv. 1, vol. 2, Case 1229: Case against bourgeois (merchant?), Kofman GL, living in Kiev, & in possession of illegal pamphlets & leaflets of the RSDRP. 1907-1908.
Inv. 1, vol. 2, Case 1230: Inquiry into charges against Kofman GL for possessing illegal pamphlets & leaflets. 1907.
Inv. 1, Vol. 2, Case 1235: Case against Meerovskaya LN detained in Kiev for keeping proclamations of the Kiev Committee of the RSDLP. 1907-1908.
Inv. 1, vol. 2. Case 1245: Case against Reichman SA detained in Shpola Zvenigorod district, Kiev province, for drafting appeals for the RSDLP. Also, possessed an illegal booklet, "Protocols of the Unification Party Congress", held in Stockholm in 1906". 1907-1908.
Inv. 1, vol. 2, Case 1394: Case against tailor, Roytenberg IU, for distributing illegal leaflets to recruits in Radomysl, Kiev province. 1907
Inv. 1, vol. 2, Case 1405: Case against Feinstein IM for the comilation & dissemination of leaflets, "Comrade Workers" & "Comrade Recruits" in Starokonstantinov Ostropol, Krasilov & Kulchin, Zhitomir district of Volyn province. 1907-1909
Inv. 1, vol. 2, Case 1469: Case against a former student of the Kiev 4th Gymnasium, Rosenthal SD, residing in Kiev, for keeping brochures of LN Tolstoy's "Soldier's Memo" & other illegal literature. 1907-1908.
Inv. 1, vol. 2, Case 1509: Case against Palshau MV, Lidenbaum YM, et al. Lutsk prison inmates in a speech against the internal prison regulations, an attack on prison officials & guards, & a clash with soldiers sent to suppress the prisoners' speech. 1907-1910.
Inv. 1, vol. 2, Case 1595: Case against a student in the 2-class urban Kremenetz schools, Volhynia. Feldman AZ for keeping literature of the petty bourgeois parties and the Socialist-Revolutionaries "anarchists" communists. 1907.
Inv. 1, vol. 2, Case 1637: Case against laborer, Ginsberg LM, residing in Volochysk, Starokonstantinovsky County, Volhynia, for keeping appeals of the Highland Caucasian group (??) of petty-bourgeois Socialist-Revolutionary Party. 1907-1910.
Inv. 1, vol. 2, Case 1685: Case against Shapiro GG, for distributing leaflets for the Jewish bourgeois-nationalist party, the "Bund", in Mogilev. 1907-1908.
Inv. 3, Case 13: The verdict of the Kiev Court of Justice: to 20 years Aronov Orlikov, Elia Berk, Mendel Morduhov, Hamaevich, Shlelya Faykelev (Fayvelev), et al., Polesie/Polesia, for belonging to the RSDLP organization. 1915 from placers (??)
Inv. 5, Case 7, 11 sheets: The case for the recovery of Kiev court costs from the firm, "Vaintrob MA & Son" in favor of the courts. 8/9-8/11/1918
Posted by Marilyn Robinson (aka Jewish Gem) at 10/23/2014 05:54:00 PM
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Location: Kiev, Kyiv city, Ukraine
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text:
Publication bias
Publication bias is a type of bias occurring in published academic research. It occurs when the outcome of an experiment or research study influences the decision whether to publish or otherwise distribute it. Publication bias is of interest because literature reviews of claims about support for a hypothesis or values for a parameter will themselves be biased if the original literature is contaminated by publication bias.[1] While some preferences are desirable—for instance a bias against publication of flawed studies—a tendency of researchers and journal editors to prefer some outcomes rather than others (e.g., results showing a significant finding) leads to a problematic bias in the published literature.[2]
Studies with significant results often do not appear to be superior to studies with a null result with respect to quality of design.[3] However, statistically significant results have been shown to be three times more likely to be published than papers with null results.[4] Multiple factors contribute to publication bias.[1] For instance, once a result is well established, it may become newsworthy to publish papers with reasonable power that fail to reject the null hypothesis.[5] It has been found that the most common reason for non-publication is investigators declining to submit results for publication. Factors cited as underlying this effect include investigators assuming they must have made a mistake, to not find a known finding, loss of interest in the topic, or anticipation that others will be uninterested in the null results.[3]
Attempts to identify unpublished studies often prove difficult or are unsatisfactory.[1] One effort to decrease this problem is reflected in the move by some journals to require that studies submitted for publication are pre-registered (registering a study prior to collection of data and analysis). Several such registries exist, for instance the Center for Open Science.
Strategies are being developed to detect and control for publication bias,[1] for instance down-weighting small and non-randomised studies because of their demonstrated high susceptibility to error and bias,[3] and p-curve analysis.[6]
Publication bias occurs when the publication of research results depends not just on the quality of the research but on the hypothesis tested, and the significance and direction of effects detected.[7] The term "publication bias" appears to have been first used in 1959 by statistician Theodore Sterling to refer to fields in which successful research is more likely to be published. As a result, "the literature of such a field consists in substantial part of false conclusions resulting from type-I errors".[8]
Publication bias is sometimes called the "file drawer effect," or "file drawer problem." The origin of this term is that results not supporting the hypotheses of researchers often go no further than the researchers' file drawers, leading to a bias in published research.[9] The term "file drawer problem" was coined by the psychologist Robert Rosenthal in 1979.[10]
Positive-results bias, a type of publication bias, occurs when authors are more likely to submit, or editors to accept, positive results than negative or inconclusive results.[11] Outcome-reporting bias occurs when multiple outcomes are measured and analyzed, but where reporting of these outcomes is dependent on the strength and direction of the result for that outcome. A generic term coined to describe these post-hoc choices is HARKing ("Hypothesizing After the Results are Known").[12]
The presence of publication bias in the literature has been most extensively studied in biomedical research. Investigators following clinical trials from the submission of their protocols to ethics committees or regulatory authorities until the publication of their results observed that those with positive results are more likely to be published.[14][15][16] In addition, studies often fail to report negative results when published, as demonstrated by research comparing study protocols with published articles.[17][18]
The presence of publication bias has also been investigated in meta-analyses. The largest study on publication bias in meta-analyses to date investigated the presence of publication bias in systematic reviews of medical treatments from the Cochrane Library.[19] The study showed that positive statistically significant findings are 27% more likely to be included in meta-analyses of efficacy than other findings and that results showing no evidence of adverse effects have a 78% greater probability to enter meta-analyses of safety than statistically significant results showing that adverse effects exist. Evidence of publication bias has also been found in meta-analyses published in prominent medical journals.[20]
Effects on meta-analyses
Where publication bias is present, published studies will not be representative of the valid studies undertaken. Unless controlled, this bias will distort the results of meta-analyses and systematic reviews. This is a severe problem as cumulative science. For example, evidence-based medicine is increasingly reliant on meta-analysis to assess evidence. The problem is particularly significant because research is often conducted by entities (people, research groups, government, and corporate sponsors) that have a financial or ideological interest in achieving favorable results.
Those undertaking meta-analyses and systematic reviews need to take account of publication bias by performing a thorough search for unpublished studies. Additionally, a number of publication bias methods have been developed, including selection models[19][21][22] and methods based on the funnel plot, such as Begg's test,[23] Egger's test,[24] and the trim and fill method.[25] However, since all publication bias methods are characterized by a relatively low power and are based on strong and unverifiable assumptions, their use does not guarantee the validity of conclusions from a meta-analysis.[26][27]
Two meta-analyses of the efficacy of reboxetine as an antidepressant provide an example of attempts to detect publication bias in clinical trials. Based on positive trial data, reboxetine was originally passed as a treatment for depression in many countries in Europe and the UK in 2001 (though in practice it is rarely used for this indication). A 2010 meta-analysis concluded that reboxetine was ineffective and that the preponderance of positive-outcome trials reflected publication bias, mostly due to trials published by the drug manufacturer Pfizer. A subsequent meta-analysis published in 2011, and also based on the original data, found flaws in the 2010 analyses and suggested that the data indicated reboxetine was effective in severe depression (see Reboxetine § Efficacy). Examples of publication bias are given by Ben Goldacre[28] and Peter Wilmhurst.[29]
In the social sciences, a study of published papers on the relationship between corporate social and financial performance found that
"In economics, finance, and accounting journals, the average correlations were only about half the magnitude of the findings published in Social Issues Management, Business Ethics, or Business and Society journals".[30]
One example cited as an instance of publication bias is the failure to accept for publication attempted replications of work by Daryl Bem claiming evidence for pre-cognition by The Journal of Personality and Social Psychology (which published the Bem paper).[31]
A study[32] comparing studies of gene-disease associations originating in China to those originating outside China found that "Chinese studies in general reported a stronger gene-disease association and more frequently a statistically significant result".[33] One interpretation of this result is selective publication (publication bias).
John Ioannidis argues that "claimed research findings may often be simply accurate measures of the prevailing bias."[34] He lists the following factors as those that make a positive paper likely to enter the literature and cause negative papers to be suppressed:
- the studies conducted in a field are smaller;
- effect sizes are smaller;
- there is a greater number and lesser preselection of tested relationships;
- there is greater flexibility in designs, definitions, outcomes, and analytical modes;
- there is greater financial and other interest and prejudice;
- more teams are involved in a scientific field in chase of statistical significance.
Other factors include experimenter bias, and white hat bias.
Ioannidis' remedies include:
- Better powered studies
- Low-bias meta-analysis
- Large studies where they can be expected to give very definitive results or test major, general concepts
- Enhanced research standards including
- Pre-registration of protocols (as for randomized trials)
- Registration or networking of data collections within fields (as in fields where researchers are expected to generate hypotheses after collecting data)
- Adopting from randomized controlled trials the principles of developing and adhering to a protocol.
- Considering, before running an experiment, what they believe the chances are that they are testing a true or non-true relationship.
- Properly assessing the false positive report probability based on the statistical power of the test[35]
- Reconfirming (whenever ethically acceptable) established findings of "classic" studies, using large studies designed with minimal bias
Study registration
In September 2004, editors of several prominent medical journals (including the New England Journal of Medicine, The Lancet, Annals of Internal Medicine, and JAMA) announced that they would no longer publish results of drug research sponsored by pharmaceutical companies unless that research was registered in a public clinical trials registry database from the start.[36] Furthermore, some journals, e.g. Trials, encourage publication of study protocols in their journals.[37] The World Health Organization agreed that basic information about all clinical trials should be registered at inception, and that this information should be publicly accessible through the WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform. Additionally, public availability of full study protocols, alongside reports of trials, is becoming more common for studies.[38]
See also
- Academic bias
- Bad Pharma (2012) by Ben Goldacre
- Adversarial collaboration
- AllTrials
- Confirmation bias
- Counternull
- Experimenter's bias
- Funding bias
- FUTON bias
- List of cognitive biases
- Parapsychology
- Peer review
- Proteus phenomenon
- Replication crisis
- Selection bias
- Scientific journals for null results
- White hat bias
- Woozle effect
- 1 2 3 4 H. Rothstein, A. J. Sutton and M. Borenstein. (2005). Publication bias in meta-analysis: prevention, assessment and adjustments. Wiley. Chichester, England ; Hoboken, NJ.
- ↑ Song, F.; Parekh, S.; Hooper, L.; Loke, Y. K.; Ryder, J.; Sutton, A. J.; Hing, C.; Kwok, C. S.; Pang, C.; Harvey, I. (2010). "Dissemination and publication of research findings: An updated review of related biases". Health technology assessment (Winchester, England). 14 (8): iii, iix–xi, iix–193. doi:10.3310/hta14080. PMID 20181324.
- 1 2 3 Easterbrook, P. J.; Berlin, J. A.; Gopalan, R.; Matthews, D. R. (1991). "Publication bias in clinical research". Lancet. 337 (8746): 867–872. doi:10.1016/0140-6736(91)90201-Y. PMID 1672966.
- ↑ Dickersin, K.; Chan, S.; Chalmers, T. C.; et al. (1987). "Publication bias and clinical trials". Controlled Clinical Trials. 8 (4): 343–353. doi:10.1016/0197-2456(87)90155-3. PMID 3442991.
- ↑ Luijendijk, HJ; Koolman, X (May 2012). "The incentive to publish negative studies: how beta-blockers and depression got stuck in the publication cycle.". J Clin Epidemiol. 65 (5): 488–92. doi:10.1016/j.jclinepi.2011.06.022.
- ↑ "P-curve: A key to the file-drawer.". Journal of Experimental Psychology: General. 143: 534–547. doi:10.1037/a0033242.
- ↑ K. Dickersin (March 1990). "The existence of publication bias and risk factors for its occurrence". JAMA. 263 (10): 1385–1359. doi:10.1001/jama.263.10.1385. PMID 2406472.
- ↑ Sterling, Theodore D. (March 1959). "Publication decisions and their possible effects on inferences drawn from tests of significance—or vice versa". Journal of the American Statistical Association. 54 (285): 30–34. doi:10.2307/2282137. Retrieved 10 April 2011.
- ↑ Jeffrey D. Scargle (2000). "Publication bias: the "file-drawer problem" in scientific inference" (PDF). Journal of Scientific Exploration. 14 (2): 94–106.
- ↑ Rosenthal R (1979). "File drawer problem and tolerance for null results". Psychol Bull. 86: 638–41. doi:10.1037/0033-2909.86.3.638.
- ↑ D.L. Sackett (1979). "Bias in analytic research". J Chronic Dis. 32 (1–2): 51–63. doi:10.1016/0021-9681(79)90012-2. PMID 447779.
- ↑ N.L. Kerr (1998). "HARKing: Hypothesizing After the Results are Known". Personality and Social Psychology Review. 2 (3): 196–217. doi:10.1207/s15327957pspr0203_4. PMID 15647155.
- ↑ Flore P. C.; Wicherts J. M. (2015). "Does stereotype threat influence performance of girls in stereotyped domains? A meta-analysis". J Sch Psychol. 53: 25–44. doi:10.1016/j.jsp.2014.10.002. PMID 25636259.
- ↑ Dickersin, K.; Min, Y.I. (1993). "NIH clinical trials and publication bias". Online J Curr Clin Trials. Doc No 50: [4967 words; 53 paragraphs]. PMID 8306005.
- ↑ Decullier E, Lheritier V, Chapuis F (2005). "Fate of biomedical research protocols and publication bias in France: retrospective cohort study". BMJ. 331: 19–22. doi:10.1136/bmj.38488.385995.8f.
- ↑ Song F, Parekh-Bhurke S, Hooper L, Loke Y, Ryder J, Sutton A, et al. (2009). "Extent of publication bias in different categories of research cohorts: a meta-analysis of empirical studies". BMC Med Res Methodol. 9: 79. doi:10.1186/1471-2288-9-79.
- ↑ Chan AW, Altman DG (2005). "Identifying outcome reporting bias in randomised trials on PubMed: review of publications and survey of authors". BMJ. 330: 753. doi:10.1136/bmj.38356.424606.8f.
- ↑ Riveros C, Dechartres A, Perrodeau E, Haneef R, Boutron I, Ravaud P (2013). "Timing and completeness of trial results posted at ClinicalTrials.gov and published in journals". PLoS Med. 10: e1001566. doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1001566.
- 1 2 Kicinski, M; Springate, D. A.; Kontopantelis, E (2015). "Publication bias in meta-analyses from the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews". Statistics in Medicine. 34: n/a. doi:10.1002/sim.6525. PMID 25988604.
- ↑ Kicinski M (2013). "Publication bias in recent meta-analyses". PLoS ONE. 8: e81823. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0081823.
- ↑ Silliman N (1997). "Hierarchical selection models with applications in meta-analysis". Journal of American Statistical Association. 92 (439): 926–936. doi:10.1080/01621459.1997.10474047.
- ↑ Hedges L, Vevea J (1996). "Estimating effect size under publication bias: small sample properties and robustness of a random effects selection model". Journal of Educational and Behavioral Statistics. 21 (4): 299–332. doi:10.3102/10769986021004299.
- ↑ Begg C, Mazumdar M (1994). "Operating characteristics of a rank correlation test for publication bias". Biometrics. 50 (4): 1088–1101. doi:10.2307/2533446.
- ↑ Egger M, Smith G, Schneider M, Minder C (1997). "Bias in meta-analysis detected by a simple, graphical test". British Medical Journal. 315: 629–634. doi:10.1136/bmj.315.7109.629. PMC 2127453. PMID 9310563.
- ↑ Duval S, Tweedie R (2000). "Trim and fill: A simple funnel-plot-based method of testing and adjusting for publication bias in meta-analysis". Biometrics. 56 (2): 455–463. doi:10.1111/j.0006-341X.2000.00455.x.
- ↑ Sutton AJ, Song F, Gilbody SM, Abrams KR (2000). "Modelling publication bias in meta-analysis: a review". Stat Methods Med Res. 9: 421–445. doi:10.1191/096228000701555244.
- ↑ Kicinski, M (2014). "How does under-reporting of negative and inconclusive results affect the false-positive rate in meta-analysis? A simulation study". BMJ Open. 4 (8): e004831. doi:10.1136/bmjopen-2014-004831. PMC 4156818. PMID 25168036.
- ↑ Ben Goldacre What doctors don't know about the drugs they prescribe
- ↑ Wilmshurst, Peter. "Dishonesty in Medical Research" (PDF).
- ↑ Marc Orlitzky Institutional Logics in the Study of Organizations: The Social Construction of the Relationship between Corporate Social and Financial Performance
- ↑ Ben Goldacre Backwards step on looking into the future The Guardian, 23 April 2011
- ↑ Zhenglun Pan, Thomas A. Trikalinos, Fotini K. Kavvoura, Joseph Lau, John P.A. Ioannidis (2005). "Local literature bias in genetic epidemiology: An empirical evaluation of the Chinese literature". PLoS Medicine. 2 (12): e334. doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.0020334.
- ↑ Ling Tang Jin (2005). "Selection Bias in Meta-Analyses of Gene-Disease Associations". PLoS Medicine. 2 (12): e409. doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.0020409.
- ↑ Ioannidis J (2005). "Why most published research findings are false". PLoS Med. 2 (8): e124. doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.0020124. PMC 1182327. PMID 16060722.
- ↑ Wacholder, S.; Chanock, S; Garcia-Closas, M; El Ghormli, L; Rothman, N (March 2004). "Assessing the Probability That a Positive Report is False: An Approach for Molecular Epidemiology Studies". JNCI. 96 (6): 434–42. doi:10.1093/jnci/djh075. PMID 15026468.
- ↑ (The Washington Post) (2004-09-10). "Medical journal editors take hard line on drug research". smh.com.au. Retrieved 2008-02-03.
- ↑ "Instructions for Trials authors — Study protocol". 2009-02-15.
- ↑ Dickersin, K.; Chalmers, I. (2011). "Recognizing, investigating and dealing with incomplete and biased reporting of clinical research: from Francis Bacon to the WHO". J R Soc Med. 104 (12): 532–538. doi:10.1258/jrsm.2011.11k042. PMID 22179297.
External links
- The Truth Wears Off: Is there something wrong with the scientific method? -- Jonah Lehrer
- Register of clinical trials conducted in the US and around the world, maintained by the National Library of Medicine, Bethesda
- Skeptic's Dictionary: positive outcome bias.
- Skeptic's Dictionary: file-drawer effect.
- Journal of Negative Results in Biomedicine
- The All Results Journals
- Journal of Articles in Support of the Null Hypothesis
- Article on 'the decline effect' and the role of publication bias in that
- Psychfiledrawer.org: Archive for replication attempts in experimental psychology


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