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Topic: Iran (Read 103258 times)
Power User
Posts: 29669
A Stratfor Chronology
Reply #650 on:
November 27, 2013, 12:21:30 PM »
The nuclear deal reached between the West and Iran on Nov. 23, however limited and temporary its terms, may represent a landmark shift in the geopolitics of the Middle East. While it follows a flurry of diplomatic activity and urgent meetings, largely made possible by a regime change in Iran last August and a sense of urgency on the part of the United States' second term president, the imperatives and geopolitical realities driving such a rapprochement have been taking shape for years. Stratfor analyses have discussed the geopolitical forces and imperatives driving this historic shift, as well as the many challenges, for years. Those challenges include a recalcitrant U.S. Congress, defiant allies in the Arab world and Israel and resistance from hard-liners in Iran's security apparatus who would sabotage any prospective deal to protect their privileged position built up during years of international isolation. Ultimately, the deal was reached because the two main parties -- the United States and Iran -- both believe that a deal is in their interests, now and in the future. Below is a reverse chronology of Stratfor analyses and forecasts over the past decade that have anticipated the events now unfolding in the wake of the new Geneva accord.
Fourth Quarter Forecast 2013
Oct. 1, 2013
While both Iran and the United States are serious about pursuing a dialogue, the transition from making positive gestures to negotiating substantial concessions will be difficult. Iran will expect some give-and-take from the United States on sanctions in negotiating the nuclear issue, but the U.S. president will have a limited range of choices for highly visible concessions he can make independently without having to consult an obstinate Congress. A nervous Saudi Arabia and Israel, meanwhile, will exercise their respective levers to undermine the negotiation, though they will face limits as the United States and Iran try to fast-track the talks while Iranian President Hassan Rouhani still carries support at home.
Iran: Rebalancing Civil-Military Relations
Sept. 19, 2013
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani faces a dilemma involving two powerful yet distinct actors: the United States and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Rouhani understands that he must bring in foreign investment to improve the Iranian economy, but he can only court potential investors if he can somehow convince the United States to ease its economic sanctions. The corps wields substantial economic power in Iran, and the group will not easily surrender that power to foreign competitors -- at least, not without gaining something in return. To appease the corps, Rouhani will offer concessions and guarantee the protection of its economics interests, so long those interests do not interfere with his foreign policy agenda.
U.S., Iran: Why They Will Now Likely Negotiate
Aug. 2, 2013
Tehran is devoting an unsustainable amount of resources to Syrian President Bashar al Assad in his fight against the Syrian rebellion. And while economic sanctions have not yet forced Iran to the negotiating table, Iranian leaders will likely choose to engage the United States voluntarily to forestall further economic decline. The inauguration of President-elect Hassan Rouhani provides an ideal opportunity for them to do so.
Negotiations Behind U.S. Sanctions Against Iran
July 3, 2013
While talk of sanctions has dominated headlines, a more subtle dialogue between Iran and the United States has been taking place. In an editorial appearing in U.S. foreign policy journal The National Interest, two insiders of the Iranian regime, Iranian political analyst Mohammad Ali Shabani and former member of Iranian nuclear negotiating team Seyed Hossein Mousavian, communicated several key points on behalf of Tehran:
The United States and Iran must continue to negotiate.
Sanctions hurt Iran economically but by no means paralyze Iranian trade.
Iran cannot be sure that any bilateral agreement made with the United States will be honored by a new administration come November.
The United States must abandon any policy intended to bring about regime change in Tehran.
Washington has few remaining options other than military intervention, which is an unlikely outcome.
Iran can significantly increase pressure on the United States by, for example, threatening the security of the Strait of Hormuz, an act that would raise the price of U.S. oil.
Perhaps most important, they said, "the Islamic Republic is willing to agree on a face-saving solution that would induce it to give up the cards it has gained over the past years."
On June 27, the United States delivered an important message. U.S. Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Jonathan W. Greenert said during a Pentagon news conference that the Strait of Hormuz had been relatively quiet and that the Iranian navy had been "professional and courteous" to U.S. naval vessels in the Persian Gulf. According to Greenert, the Iranian navy has abided by the norms that govern naval activity in international waters. Previously, armed speedboats operated provocatively close to U.S. vessels, but they have not done so recently, Greenert said. It is difficult to imagine Greenert making such a statement without clearance from the White House.
Saudi Nightmares
May 16, 2012
The Saudi royals live with an all-consuming fear -- that of an American understanding with Iran. The Saudis know that the American estrangement from Iran is unnatural and cannot go on forever. It has already lasted a third of a century, almost a decade longer than America's estrangement from Communist China. The Saudis also know that the logic of the present standoff over Iran's nuclear ambitions must lead -- through war or peace -- to some sort of American-Iranian dialogue about the two countries' core interests in the Middle East.
The Next Decade, by George Friedman
Published January 2011
In the next decade, the most desirable option with Iran is going to be delivered through a move that now seems inconceivable. It is the option chosen by Roosevelt and Nixon when they faced seemingly impossible strategic situations: the creation of alliances with countries that had previously been regarded as strategic and moral threats. Roosevelt allied the United States with Stalinist Russia, and Nixon aligned with Maoist China, each to block a third power that was seen as more dangerous. In both cases, there was intense ideological rivalry between the new ally and the United States, one that many regarded as extreme and utterly inflexible. Nevertheless, when the United States faced unacceptable alternatives, strategic interest overcame moral revulsion on both sides. The alternative for Roosevelt was a German victory in World War II. For Nixon, it was the Soviets using American weakness caused by the Vietnam War to change the global balance of power.
Conditions on the ground put the United States in a similar position today vis-a-vis Iran. These countries despise each other. Neither can easily destroy the other, and, truth be told, they have some interests in common. In simple terms, the American president, in order to achieve his strategic goals, must seek accommodation with Iran.
The seemingly impossible strategic situation driving the United States to this gesture is, as we've discussed, the need to maintain the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz, and to achieve this at a time when the country must reduce the forces devoted to this part of the world.
The principal reason that Iran might accede to a deal is that it sees the United States as dangerous and unpredictable. Indeed, in less than ten years, Iran has found itself with American troops on both its eastern and western borders. Iran's primary strategic interest is regime survival. It must avoid a crushing U.S. intervention while guaranteeing that Iraq never again becomes a threat. Meanwhile, Iran must increase its authority within the Muslim world against the Sunni Muslims who rival and sometimes threaten it.
In trying to imagine a U.S.-Iranian detente, consider the overlaps in these countries' goals. The United States is in a war against some -- but not all -- Sunnis, and these Sunnis are also the enemies of Shiite Iran. Iran does not want U.S. troops along its eastern and western borders. (In point of fact, the United States does not want to be there either.) Just as the United States wants to see oil continue to flow freely through Hormuz, Iran wants to profit from that flow, not interrupt it. Finally, the Iranians understand that the United States alone poses the greatest threat to their security: solve the American problem and regime survival is assured. The United States understands, or should, that resurrecting the Iraqi counterweight to Iran is simply not an option in the short term. Unless the United States wants to make a huge, long-term commitment of ground forces in Iraq, which it clearly does not, the obvious solution to its problem in the region is to make an accommodation with Iran.
Thinking About the Unthinkable: A U.S.-Iranian Deal
March 1, 2010
The United States apparently has reached the point where it must either accept that Iran will develop nuclear weapons at some point if it wishes, or take military action to prevent this. There is a third strategy, however: Washington can seek to redefine the Iranian question.
The major risk of the third strategy is that Iran will overstep its bounds and seek to occupy the oil-producing countries of the Persian Gulf. Certainly, this would be tempting, but it would bring a rapid American intervention. The United States would not block indirect Iranian influence, however, from financial participation in regional projects to more significant roles for the Shia in Arabian states. Washington's limits for Iranian power are readily defined and enforced when exceeded.
The great losers in the third strategy, of course, would be the Sunnis in the Arabian Peninsula. But Iraq aside, they are incapable of defending themselves, and the United States has no long-term interest in their economic and political relations. So long as the oil flows, and no single power directly controls the entire region, the United States does not have a stake in this issue.
Decade Forecast: 2010-2020
Jan. 21, 2010
We also see the Iranian situation having been brought under control. Whether this will be by military action and isolation of Iran or by a political arrangement with the current or a successor regime is unclear but irrelevant to the broader geopolitical issue. Iran will be contained as it simply does not have the underlying power to be a major player in the region beyond its immediate horizons.
Geopolitical Diary: Military Intelligence Chief Shifts Israel's Iran Policy
Nov. 18, 2008
The change in tone [from the Israelis toward Iran] tracks with the change in Iranian-U.S. relations. While hardly warm, there are signs of some thawing, as we have discussed. U.S. President George W. Bush's administration appears to be moving toward more extensive, open discussions with Iran, and President-elect Barack Obama has indicated a commitment to exploring dialogue with Iran. Under those circumstances, Israel is not going to simply oppose talks. Israel cannot stray too far from the American position, and given that the Bush and Obama positions are converging, Israel cannot attempt to play off political disagreements in Washington.
The Iranian Position
Dec. 13, 2006
Politically speaking, it is obvious why the [Bush] administration has balked at suggestions that the United States should openly extend the hand of diplomacy to Iran, which -- chiefly through the mouthpiece of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad -- has said and done little to endear itself to the world, and much to spotlight the weakness of the U.S. position. Geopolitically speaking, it is equally obvious why the United States has no real choice in the matter. Washington's best option is to combine diplomacy with a military strategy (which we have discussed elsewhere) that can open the door to a substantial drawdown. But engaging Iran on some level -- however unpalatable it seems -- is an unavoidable part of the equation.
Read more: A Chronology of the Geopolitics of a Nuclear Deal with Iran | Stratfor
Power User
Posts: 29669
Krauthammer sees it differently from Stratfor
Reply #651 on:
November 27, 2013, 12:34:24 PM »
Second post
Political commentator Charles Krauthammer: "Half a dozen times, the Security Council has passed resolutions which said Iran has to stop all enrichment, otherwise there will be no change in sanctions, no relief. Which means six times China and Russia -- not exactly hardliners on Iran -- have signed on to this. And what is the result of this agreement? Iran retains the right to enrich. ... And remember, enrichment is the dam against all proliferation. Once a country anywhere can start to enrich there is no containing its nuclear capacity. So it undermines the entire idea of nonproliferation and it grants Iran a right it's been lusting for for a decade. That's why there was so much jubilation in Tehran over this. This is a sham from beginning to end. It's the worst deal since Munich."
Power User
Posts: 29669
WSJ: An Iranian Insider's View
Reply #652 on:
November 27, 2013, 12:39:42 PM »
third post
Sohrab Ahmari: An Iranian Insider's View of the Geneva Deal
'If the right to enrich is accepted, which it has been, then everything that we have wanted has been realized.'
by Sohrab Ahmari
Nov. 26, 2013 7:21 p.m. ET
The Obama administration and Western diplomats were elated by an agreement, negotiated over the weekend, to temporarily limit some aspects of Iran's nuclear-weapons program. The elation was shared by Tehran's negotiating team, led by Foreign Minister Javad Zarif, whose beaming smile and social-media savvy have been fixtures of the talks in Geneva. When the deal was sealed early on Sunday, Mr. Zarif took to Twitter TWTR +2.18% to announce: "We have reached an agreement."
But there is another Iran, where government officials are generally unsmiling and Twitter is banned. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and his Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps rule this land, not Mr. Zarif or his nominal boss, President Hasan Rouhani. It is in this Islamic Republic where the results of President Obama's nuclear diplomacy will be tested.
No Iranian news outlet more closely reflects the views of the supreme leader and the country's hard-line establishment than the Kayhan newspaper. The editor of Kayhan Hossein Shariatmadari currently holds the postis directly appointed by Mr. Khamenei and is considered the leader's representative to Iranian media.
On Sunday, I spoke on the phone with Payam Fazlinejad, a Kayhan writer and senior researcher and lieutenant of Mr. Shariatmadari's. The 32-year-old Mr. Fazlinejad is also a lecturer who addresses Islamic Republic elites on the ideological threats facing the regimethemes he has expounded on in such books as "Knights of the Cultural NATO" and "The Intellectuals' Secret Army." While he emphasized on the phone that his opinions don't necessarily represent those of his employer, Mr. Fazlinejad's views are typical of those held by a large and powerful element of the Tehran regime.
Mr. Fazlinejad's reading of the Geneva agreement mixes triumphalism and hard-nosed skepticism. "We need to be able to have an accurate view of what occurred and then assess it against the positions of the supreme leader and his guidance," he says. "But as a general matter, if the right to enrich is accepted, which it has been, then everything that we have wanted has been realized."
Last year, Mr. Shariatmadari, the editor of the newspaper, wrote that Iran has a right to enrich uranium up to 99%. The Obama administration insists that the Geneva agreement doesn't enshrine a right to enrich uranium. Yet the deal permits the Iranian regime to continue enriching uranium up to 5%a level that can be quickly escalated to produce weapons-grade material. Mr. Fazlinejad views the Geneva 5% concession as great-power acquiescence to Tehran's enrichment program. "Now, the detailsincluding the amount of enrichment and the specific enrichment locations and the technological shape of our enrichment programare up to our technicians to determine," he says.
Given that the Geneva deal is an interim, six-month arrangement, with a final agreement still to come, Mr. Fazlinejad suggests that Western leaders must "take into account that the supreme leader's support for the negotiations and agreement has been conditional and by no means absolute. The leader instructed us that if the rights of the Iranian nation and the principles of the revolution are respected and the negotiating team stands up to the overbearing demands of the United States and the global arrogance"the regime's terms for the West generally"then he would support their work." On the other hand, if the agreement denies Iran's absolute right to enrich, "then it is from our view essentially void."
The Kayhan writer warns against perceiving any diplomatic agreement over Iran's nuclear program as a first step toward broader rapprochement between Washington and Tehran. "The nature of the opposition of the Islamic revolution with the regime of liberal democracy is fundamentally philosophical," Mr. Fazlinejad says. "It's an ideological difference. It is not a tactical enmity, or one that has to do with temporary interests, which can be shifted and the enmity thus done away with. . . . So in contrast to all the punditry of late in the international media, which says that these negotiations are a step toward peace between Iran and the United Statesthose who take this view are completely mistaken."
Western leaders, Mr. Fazlinejad says, are also misreading the meaning of Mr. Rouhani's election in June and his foreign policy. Pointing to the Iranian president's recent visits with the families of Iran's "martyrs," Mr. Fazlinejad says: "Notice how hard Mr. Rouhani's government works to show itself to be loyal to the revolution's ideological principles." The new president "won't make the mistake of thinking he can either distance the Islamic Republic's leadership from its ideological principles or seek its ideological collapse."
To drive home his point about the endgame of the negotiations over Iran's nuclear program, Mr. Fazlinejad offers an analogy from the Islamic Republic's early history, citing the late Ayatollah Khomeini's statement regarding the 1987 United Nations Security Council Resolution 598, which paved the way for a cease-fire in the Iran-Iraq War.
"In that message," Mr. Fazlinejad says, "the imam made it clear that our military war against the arrogance in the form of Iraq's regime is over. . . . But he advised the youth and the political activists to 'safeguard the revolutionary hatred and grievance in your hearts, look upon your enemies with fury and know that you will be victorious.' "
Khomeini's statement, Mr. Fazlinejad says, "was a message of peace, signaling a permanent cease-fire. But at the same time it asserted the vitality of our struggle against the capitalist order. If anyone gets the sense from these negotiations, as [Foreign Minister] Mr. Zarif has, that we are getting closer to the West, he is as mistaken as Mr. Zarif."
Power User
Posts: 11506
Re: Iran
Reply #653 on:
November 27, 2013, 02:48:45 PM »
Quote from: bigdog on November 27, 2013, 05:03:25 AM
This is explained in both articles I posted.
Quote from: Crafty_Dog on November 26, 2013, 02:35:41 PM
a) FWIW I think BD is using "rational" is a specific "term of art" academic sense and GM is using it as it is used in everyday conversation.
"Because rational choice theory lacks understanding of consumer motivation, some economists restrict its use to understanding business behavior where goals are usually very clear. As Armen Alchian points out, competition in the market encourages businesses to maximize profits (in order to survive). Because that goal is significantly less vacuous than "maximizing utility" and the like, rational choice theory is apt."
Trying to analyze geopolitics without factoring in culture, history, belief systems seems pretty useless.
Power User
Posts: 11506
Re: Iran
Reply #654 on:
November 27, 2013, 02:54:41 PM »
So, what's the academic theory that explains how Iran uses these games to buy time until it nukes Israel and maybe the US, even at the cost of massive retaliation?
Power User
Posts: 2104
Re: Iran
Reply #655 on:
November 27, 2013, 05:28:02 PM »
While this is a criticism, IMO the better rational choice theorists are able to account for history and culture. I have found that those who criticize in this way fail to understand it.
Quote from: G M on November 27, 2013, 02:48:45 PM
Quote from: bigdog on November 27, 2013, 05:03:25 AM
This is explained in both articles I posted.
Quote from: Crafty_Dog on November 26, 2013, 02:35:41 PM
a) FWIW I think BD is using "rational" is a specific "term of art" academic sense and GM is using it as it is used in everyday conversation.
"Because rational choice theory lacks understanding of consumer motivation, some economists restrict its use to understanding business behavior where goals are usually very clear. As Armen Alchian points out, competition in the market encourages businesses to maximize profits (in order to survive). Because that goal is significantly less vacuous than "maximizing utility" and the like, rational choice theory is apt."
Trying to analyze geopolitics without factoring in culture, history, belief systems seems pretty useless.
Power User
Posts: 11506
Re: Iran
Reply #656 on:
November 27, 2013, 05:40:51 PM »
So, does rational choice explain if Iran is negotiating in good faith or not? What insight does rational choice theory give us in this case?
Power User
Posts: 2104
Re: Iran
Reply #657 on:
November 27, 2013, 07:31:57 PM »
Is this a real question, or a continued snide line of "discussion"?
Power User
Posts: 11506
Re: Iran
Reply #658 on:
November 27, 2013, 07:34:05 PM »
A real question.
Power User
Posts: 29669
Re: Iran
Reply #659 on:
November 27, 2013, 10:10:48 PM »
Power User
Posts: 2104
Re: Iran
Reply #660 on:
November 28, 2013, 05:26:59 AM »
I am not aware of an in depth, academic work using rational choice about the negotiations that ended a few days ago. There are, however, several rational choice models about Iranian (foreign) policy more generally.
Here are some examples:
If you want more current thought, I suggest academic blog sites like the Duck of Minerva or The Monkey Cage. Foreign Policy's online resources might something too.
Power User
Posts: 29669
Re: Iran
Reply #661 on:
November 28, 2013, 12:23:12 PM »
I am not aware of an in depth, academic work using rational choice about the negotiations that ended a few days ago."
GM's sense of humor is rubbing off on you
Power User
Posts: 5541
Re: Iran
Reply #662 on:
November 29, 2013, 10:51:55 AM »
"does rational choice explain if Iran is negotiating in good faith or not? What insight does rational choice theory give us in this case?"
If we assume Iran has no intention of abiding by any meaningful restrictions and sees this as all take and no give, then a scholarly theory is not necessary to analyze such a simple framework. More interesting is to study the Obama (G5+1) side to understand what motivates such recklessness.
Not 'rational choice', but look to a theory I would call 'saving face'. When one side is caving in a negotiation, the winning side can offer little fig leafs for the losing side to use for cover in order to make the capitulation happen. President Obama and Sec. Kerry can point to this complex agreement and say blah, blah, blah while Iran proudly proclaims that sanctions are lifted, hard currency is coming in, and nuclear enrichment will be uninterrupted.
Power User
Posts: 3796
Re: Iran
Reply #663 on:
December 06, 2013, 08:09:08 AM »
Many Jews might argue that the Iran deal is preferable to strikes and outright war with Iran. Such as Crafty's Stratford Post on the subject. The twisted arguments are ridiculous as we can all see Iran is hell bent on achieving nuclear weaponry capability.
But as the saying goes we all have our opinions and mine is just one of many.
This picture to me portrays what I have noted multiple times. The liberal Jews love the Democrat Party and also hate the Republicans more then Nazis.
Power User
Posts: 29669
Re: Iran
Reply #664 on:
December 06, 2013, 10:10:54 AM »
I posted the Stratfor piece because S. has a long history of substantive, thoughtful analyses, many of which are well outside the box but ultimately have been born out.
That said, at the moment in looks to me like they are really stretching things in an effort to cover just how wrong (albeit plausibly) they have been on this one.
Even so, the point about balancing against Sunni fanaticism is worth considering IMHO.
Power User
Posts: 11506
Re: Iran
Reply #665 on:
December 07, 2013, 07:44:50 AM »
Quote from: Crafty_Dog on November 28, 2013, 12:23:12 PM
I am not aware of an in depth, academic work using rational choice about the negotiations that ended a few days ago."
GM's sense of humor is rubbing off on you
Iran has been waging war against us since1979 and working on nukes for at least a decade. Exactly how much lead time is needed ?
Power User
Posts: 3796
G Will on Pollack's book
Reply #666 on:
December 08, 2013, 09:47:43 AM »
Unthinkable, unthinkable, unthinkable, then too late and worse. That is my opinion.
Others think otherwise:
******By George F. Will, Published: December 6
In his disproportionate praise of the six-month agreement with Iran, Barack Obama said: For the first time in nearly a decade, we have halted the progress of the Iranian nuclear program. But if the program, now several decades old, had really been halted shortly after U.S. forces invaded neighboring Iraq, we would not be desperately pursuing agreements to stop it now, as about 10,000 centrifuges spin to enrich uranium.
If Denmark wanted to develop nuclear weapons, we would consider that nation daft but not dangerous. Irans nuclear program is alarming because Irans regime is opaque in its decision-making, frightening in its motives (measured by its rhetoric) and barbaric in its behavior. Manes, writes Kenneth M. Pollack of the Brookings Institution, from whose name the word manichean derives, was a Persian who conceived of the world as being divided into good and evil. But Pollack says suicidal tendencies are not among the irrationalities of the Iranian leadership, who are not insane millenarians.
best editorial cartoons of 2013 (so far): A collection of cartoons from around the country.
In Unthinkable: Iran, the Bomb, and American Strategy, Pollack argues that Irans nuclear program has been, so far, more beneficial to the United States than to Iran. Because of the anxieties and sanctions the program has triggered, Iran is more isolated, weak, impoverished and internally divided than at any time since it became a U.S. adversary in 1979. And one possible Pollack thinks probable result of Iran acquiring a nuclear arsenal would be Saudi Arabia doing so. Pollack considers this perhaps the most compelling reason for Iran to stop just short of weaponization.
Writing several months before the recent agreement was reached, Pollack said that, given Irans adamant refusal to give up all enrichment, it will retain at least a breakout capability the ability to dash to weaponization in a matter of months, even weeks. Hence the need to plan serious, aggressive containment.
In September 2012, the Senate voted 90 to 1 for a nonbinding resolution ruling out any policy that would rely on containment as an option in response to the Iranian nuclear threat. The implication was that containment is a tepid and passive policy. But it was not such during the 45 years the United States contained the Soviet Union. And containment can involve much more than mere deterrence of Iran, against which the United States has already waged cyberwarfare.
Pollack believes that, were it not for Israel repeatedly sounding the alarm, Iran probably would have crossed the nuclear threshold long ago. But if a nuclear Iran is for Israel unthinkable because it is uncontainable, Israels only self-reliant recourse a nuclear attack on Irans nuclear infrastructure is unthinkable. And, Pollack thinks, unnecessary. The existence of Israels nuclear arsenal is a sufficient deterrent: The Iranian leadership is aggressive, anti-American, anti-status quo, anti-Semitic, duplicitous, and murderous, but it is not irrational, and overall, it is not imprudent.
There will be no constitutional impropriety if Congress recoils against the easing of sanctions and votes to impose even stiffer ones on Iran. The president has primary but not exclusive responsibility for foreign policy. It is time for a debate about the role of sanctions in a containment policy whose ultimate objective is regime change. For many decades prior to 1989, humanity was haunted by the possibility that facets of modernity bureaucracy and propaganda technologies could produce permanent tyrannies impervious to change. (See Hannah Arendts The Origins of Totalitarianism.) In Nineteen Eighty-Four, George Orwell wrote, If you want a picture of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face for ever. Since 1989, however, tyrannies seem more brittle. And Pollack believes the basic ingredients of regime change exist in Iran, which today is a land of labor protests and political demonstrations.
Pollack may be too sanguine when he says that, since the brutal smashing of the Green Revolution of June 2009, the Islamic Republic has been delegitimized and is starting to hollow out. His fear is that even massive U.S. air strikes would only delay the danger that provoked them and thus might prove to be nothing more than a prelude to invasion, as they were in Iraq and almost were in Kosovo.
The logic of nuclear deterrence has not yet failed in the 64 years since the world acquired its second nuclear power. This logic does not guarantee certainty, but, says Pollack, the small residual doubt cannot be allowed to be determinative. His basic point is: Our choices are awful, but choose we must. Containment is the least awful response to Irans coming nuclear capability.
Read more from George F. Wills archive or follow him on Facebook.******
Power User
Posts: 29669
Iran continues to develop missile capabilities
Reply #667 on:
December 17, 2013, 10:49:31 AM »
Power User
Posts: 29669
WSJ: Book Review "Days of God" (The Shah)
Reply #668 on:
December 17, 2013, 05:16:18 PM »
Second post
Book Review: 'Days of God,' by James Buchan
Reza Shah single-handedly propelled Iran from a shambolic, humiliated has-been empire into a modern nation-state.
By Roya Hakakian
Dec. 16, 2013 7:04 p.m. ET
In "Days of God," James Buchan comes as close as anyonecertainly as close as any Westernerto capturing the Iranian predicament of the past 34 years: "Those who make great revolutions forget that prisons and torture chambers survive into the new era, but good manners, good food, the small pleasures of family life, and literary excellence all go to hell. What Iranians most wished for they never gained, and what they most sought to preserve they lost."
Mr. Buchan, a British journalist and novelist, first traveled to Iran in 1974, when the shah was still at the height of his powers, and he worked for many years as a Middle East correspondent for the Financial Times. The author's grasp of Persian literature and the Persian language allows him to treat Iran's 1979 Islamic Revolution with rare insight and compassion.
The book chronicles the rise and fall of Iran's Pahlavi kings, the last in a monarchical tradition stretching back 2,500 years. In Mr. Buchan's telling, Iran's turbulent 20th century was defined by the conflict between the modernizing Pahlavis and the country's powerful Shiite clergy, led by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. The ayatollah-turned-revolutionary had always viewed secular rulersbe they despots or democratsas an affront to the divine sovereign, and as Mr. Buchan writes, he believed that it was the clerics who "as heirs to the Prophet and the Imams . . . must lead the Muslim community."
Those tensions exploded in the cataclysmic events of 1978-79, which Mr. Buchan covers in rich detail and delightful prose: the massive protest on Sept. 8, 1978, in Tehran's Zhaleh Square, on which the shah's security forces opened fire, dooming his regime in the process; the Khomeinists' equally brutal arson attack on Cinema Rex in Abadan, Iran, which killed almost 500; the bloody retribution aimed at the army and Pahlavi-era officials that followed the revolution; the mass executions of Khomeini's former leftist allies, led by the psychotic hanging judge Sadegh Khalkhali; the seizure of the U.S. Embassy in November 1979; the eight-year war with Iraq; the Iran-Contra affair; and, finally, Khomeini's bizarre 1989 funeral, during which 10,000 grief-stricken devotees of the ayatollah were "treated for self-inflicted wounds, heat exhaustion, and crush injuries."
Enlarge Image
Days of God
By Roya Hakakian
(Simon & Schuster, 410 pages, $27.99)
A most portentous moment in modern Iranian history marks the opening of "Days of God": the 1926 coronation of Reza Shah, an elite cavalry officer in the Cossack Brigade and the founding patriarch of the Pahlavi dynasty. The author describes Reza Shah as an ambitious king-to-be, who aspired to emulate Ataturk in neighboring Turkey with a rapid program of modernization. While noting Reza Shah's flawshubris, above allMr. Buchan concludes that "Reza was the most influential Iranian of the last century, more influential even than Ruhollah Khomeini." The judgment is sound: Reza Shah almost single-handedly propelled Iran from a shambolic, humiliated has-been empire into a modern nation-state. His great influence notwithstanding, he was forced to abdicate the throne by the World War II Allies in 1941 in favor of his son, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi.
In recounting the 50-year rule of the Pahlavis, father and son, Mr. Buchan sharply breaks from the dominant, anti-Pahlavi narrative in the West. At the heart of that narrative is the notion that U.S.-Iran tensions today can be traced back to the 1953 coup, led by the CIA and MI6, against the shah's populist prime minister, Mohammad Mossadegh. But according to Mr. Buchan, the real actors behind the anti-Mossadegh "coup" were the Iranian middle class, the merchants of the bazaar and, above all, the Islamist clergy, who loathed Mossadegh's secularism.
For the clerics, Mossadegh's overthrow was merely one episode in a centurylong quest for power that culminated in the Ayatollah Khomeini's 1979 takeover. The historical lesson is clear: The mullahs didn't form a spiritual, benign force that suddenly took the stage in 1978 in support of the oppressed masses against an evil king. Rather, they were pragmatic and persistent political actors with a long-standing thirst for power.
Gradually, as the book's narrative arrives at 1979 and the horrific years that followed, the author's perspective shifts from that of authoritative historian to objective contemporary reporter. He recounts the 444-day ordeal that became known as the hostage crisis in America, but the significance of it for the domestic politics of Iran is mentioned only as an aside. What appeared to the international community, especially the U.S., as an egregious display of enmity toward America also enabled the Khomeinists to consolidate their hold on power at home. But Mr. Buchan notes this pivotal insight only in a passing quotation from the arch-hostage taker Mohammad Mousavi-Khoeiniha : "We have reaped all the fruits of our undertaking. We defeated the attempt by the [Iranian] Liberals to take control of the machinery of government."
During the long 14 months it took until the hostages returned home, seismic shifts took place inside Iran, changing the nation as the world knew it. Mr. Buchan's analysis of all this is sometimes quick, too quick. In the interval, "the Islamic Republic freed the American diplomatic hostages, established its legal code, extirpated its enemies, and covered up its women," he writes.
Another barely analyzed incident is the fatwa against Salman Rushdie issued by the ayatollah in 1989: "Why Khomeini chose to condemn that author, that literary work, and at that time is not obvious to me," Mr. Buchan writes. That Khomeini depended on homemade and other criseshostage taking, war with Iraqis a point usually lost on even the most insightful Western experts, Mr. Buchan among them. Western writers are trained to seek underlying, logical rationales for the behavior of rogue and revolutionary regimes. But some men, and some regimes, simply thrive on chaos.
Ms. Hakakian is the author, most recently, of "Assassins of the Turquoise Palace," which received the 2013 Asian American Literary Award in nonfiction.
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Baraq threatens veto of new sanctions
Reply #669 on:
December 20, 2013, 10:55:35 AM »
U.S. President Barack Obama made a rare threat to veto legislation after a bipartisan group of senators introduced a bill that would impose new sanctions on Iran if an interim nuclear agreement fails. Despite pressure from the Obama administration, on Thursday a group of 26 republican and democratic senators filed a bill, the Nuclear Weapon Free Iran Act of 2013, targeting Iran's oil exports and penalizing its engineering, mining, and construction industries. Additionally, it would give the senate a voice in any final nuclear agreement with Iran. The sanctions would not take effect before the end of the six-month term of the interim deal. White House spokesman Jay Carney said the "action is unnecessary" and could "disrupt the opportunity here for a diplomatic resolution." Additionally, Benjamin J. Rhodes, a deputy national security advisor, said, "We just can't have new sanctions during this period." One of the bill's main supporters, Senator Robert Menedez, New Jersey Democrat and chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee, said in a statement, "Current sanctions brought Iran to the negotiating table, and a credible threat of future sanctions will require Iran to cooperate and act in good faith."
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"Without a deal, Iran would have attacked Israel"
Reply #670 on:
December 22, 2013, 12:09:13 PM »
An Iranian political analyst claimed last week that if a deal between Iran and the West over Irans nuclear program had not been reached in Geneva, Iran would have annihilated Israel. The comments by Mohammad Sadeq Al-Hosseini, a former political advisor to Iranian President Khatami, aired on Syrian News TV on December 11. They were translated by the Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI). In fact, said Al-Hosseini, had a deal not been reached in Geneva, President Barack Obama would have had to kiss the hands of Irans supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah in order to prevent an Iranian attack on Israel.
Believe me, President Obama tried five times to get a free handshake from President Rouhani, on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly and he failed, said Al-Hosseini. He (Obama) said: I am prepared to discuss the issue of Bahrain, like Iran wants but just give me that handshake, claimed Al-Hosseini. Obama had to make a great retreat. He was forced to accept a handshake from President Rouhani, whom he considered a kind of Gorbachev or Sadat, so that the day would not come when he would be forced to kiss the hands of Hassan Nasrallah and Imam Khamenei, so that they would hold their fire in the great war that was prepared to annihilate Israel, he further stated. All the operations... It has been revealed that our missiles can now very easily reach Tel Aviv. We have weapons that can make Israel go blind. Nasrallah, the leader of the resistance, managed to deliver a 17-minute speech, and the Israeli airplanes were unable to reach the southern suburb of Beirut, or to fly over Lebanon, claimed Al-Hoseeini. This is the first time that such a thing has happened. This means that we have a new strategic weapon in Syria, in Iran, and in the southern suburb of Beirut, which can prevent Israel from attacking, he declared. The former presidential adviser went on to claim that the Iranians have raised the level of uranium enrichment far beyond the level they really needed, so that when the level would be lowered, they would emerge victorious.
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WSJ: Obama's Iran Sanctions Veto
Reply #671 on:
December 24, 2013, 11:09:28 AM »
Obama's Iran Sanctions Veto
He rejects a bipartisan attempt to strengthen his negotiating hand.
Dec. 22, 2013 6:23 p.m. ET
President Obama says he won't sign a deal with Iran that fails to stop its nuclear weapons program. So why is he threatening to veto a Senate sanctions bill that would strengthen his hand in negotiations with Tehran?
That's the big question after the White House promised to veto the "Nuclear Weapon Free Iran Act of 2013" that a bipartisan group of Senators introduced on Thursday. Thirteen Democrats joined 13 Republicans as co-sponsors of the bill that would impose more sanctions on Iran only if the talks on a final agreement fail.
The veto threat means the President is siding with Iran against a bipartisan majority in the U.S. Congress. Iran's Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif claims the bill would kill the "interim" accord recently signed in Geneva, which sounds like either an excuse or a bluff. Yet White House spokesman Jay Carney immediately echoed the Iranian by saying "it is very important to refrain from taking any action that would potentially disrupt the opportunity for a diplomatic resolution."
At his Friday press conference, Mr. Obama didn't even make that elevated a case, insisting that "there's no reason to do it right now." He added that "I'm not surprised that there's been some talk from some Members of Congress about new sanctions. I think the politics of trying to look tough on Iran are often good when you're running for office or if you're in office."
So as usual the President says his opponents are motivated by political self-interest while he's above all that. At least he didn't blame the "Israel lobby," but what else could he have been referring to? Senate Democrats are getting a taste of what House Republicans get every other day from Mr. Obama.
Pardon us for looking at the merits, but the bill would do nothing to undermine the talks unless Iran isn't serious. Mr. Obama keeps saying that previous sanctionswhich he resisted at every turn only to take credit laterare what brought Iran to the bargaining table. The current bill written by New Jersey Democrat Robert Menendez and Illinois Republican Mark Kirk simply warns Iran's rulers of worse sanctions if they walk away. The bill would tee up tighter restrictions on Iran's petroleum industry, access to foreign bank holdings and investment in engineering, mining and construction. This sharpens the incentive for Iran to dismantle its illegal nuclear facilities.
The White House seems to think the bill would alter the mood music of the talks, but if mood is the issue then a deal isn't going to succeed anyway. It's troubling enough that Iran and the U.S. can't even seem to agree on the details of the interim accord, which still isn't in effect.
We're also told that provisional sanctions would undermine Iran President Hasan Rouhani in his supposed battle with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the Revolutionary Guard Corps. But even if you think that Mr. Rouhani is a genuine moderate, parsing Iran's internal politics is a fool's game. Outsiders can't peer inside such a closed system, unless the NSA and CIA are better than we assume. No deal will work unless Iran's hardliners agree to it in any case.
The Senate bill would also send a useful message to German, Chinese, Indian and other companies that are eager to rush back into business with Iran. It says hold off until a final agreement is done and implemented. One reason Iran so hates the Menendez-Kirk bill is that it is hoping the sanctions relief contained in the interim accord will cascade into a wholesale breakdown whether or not a final agreement is reached.
The Senate bill would also help to keep Mr. Obama's negotiators focused on the merits, as opposed to the short-term atmospherics of a supposed diplomatic triumph. The text of the Senate bill says a successful negotiation must dismantle Iran's nuclear facilities, include compliance with existing U.N. Security Council resolutions (which include limits on ballistic missiles) and allow around the clock inspections at all suspect facilities. The interim accord required none of this.
The bill also offers a strong statement of U.S. support for Israel if it acts in self-defense against Iran's nuclear program. This too is a warning to Mr. Obama, who often seems more intent on containing Israel than containing Iran's nuclear ambitions.
No President wants Congress to intervene in foreign policy, but this bill gives him the freedom to negotiate as long as that negotiation achieves what Mr. Obama says are his goals. It tells Iran and Mr. Obama that Congress won't accept a North Korean-like deal that settles for promises instead of dismantling a rogue nuclear program. If Mr. Obama means what he says, he ought to welcome such political support.
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Iran anally rapes agreement with Obama
Reply #672 on:
December 28, 2013, 04:25:30 PM »
Click here to watch: Iran develops new generation of uranium centrifuges
President Obama faced mounting bipartisan pressure on Friday to drop his resistance to an Iran sanctions bill after Tehran announced a new generation of equipment to enrich uranium -- a move the Israelis claimed was further proof the regime seeks nuclear weapons. One of the president's top Democratic allies is leading the charge for Congress to pass sanctions legislation, despite the president's pleas to stand down. Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Bob Menendez, D-N.J., told Fox News that the "Iranians are showing their true intentions" with their latest announcement. "If you're talking about producing more advanced centrifuges that are only used to enrich uranium at a quicker rate ... the only purposes of that and the only reason you won't give us access to [a military research facility] is because you're really not thinking about nuclear power for domestic energy -- you're thinking about nuclear power for nuclear weapons," he said. Menendez was reacting after Iran's nuclear chief Ali Akbar Salehi said late Thursday that the country is building a new generation of centrifuges for uranium enrichment. He said the system still needs further tests before the centrifuges can be mass produced. His comments appeared aimed at countering hard-liner criticism by showing the nuclear program is moving ahead and has not been halted by the accord. At the same time, the government was walking a fine line under the terms of the deal.
Iran, as part of a six-month nuclear deal with the U.S. and other world powers, agreed not to bring new centrifuges into operation during that period. But the deal does not stop it from developing centrifuges that are still in the testing phase. On Friday, the Embassy of Israel in Washington released a statement reiterating their call for Iran to halt enrichment and remove the infrastructure behind it. "Installing additional advanced centrifuges would be further indication that Iran intends to develop a nuclear bomb -- and to speed up the process of achieving it," the statement said. Menendez said he, like the president, wants to test the opportunity for diplomacy. "The difference is that we want to be ready should that diplomacy not succeed," the senator said. "It's getting Congress showing a strong hand with Iranians at the same time that the administration is seeking negotiation with them. I think that that's the best of all worlds."
Obama would not appear to agree.
See more at
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Deal reached?!?
Reply #673 on:
January 12, 2014, 12:47:19 PM »
Iran Nuclear Deal to Take Effect on Jan. 20, World Powers Say
Iran and six world powers have agreed on how to put in place an accord that would temporarily freeze much of Irans nuclear program, American and Iranian officials said on Sunday. That accord would go into effect on Jan. 20.
International negotiators worked out an agreement in November to constrain much of Irans program for six months so that diplomats would have time to pursue a more comprehensive follow-up accord. But before the temporary agreement could take effect, negotiators had to work out the technical procedures for carrying it out and resolve some of its ambiguities in concert with the International Atomic Energy Agency.
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Can't argue with that
Reply #674 on:
January 14, 2014, 11:12:59 AM »
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US run by Nazi space aliens, Iran claims
Reply #675 on:
January 14, 2014, 11:29:15 AM »
US run by Nazi space aliens, Iran claims
Alien Space Nazi Caricature Photo: Roz Mundo
WASHINGTON - Confirming the suspicions of many, the United States has been secretly run by a shadow government of German Nazi space aliens since 1945, Fars News Agency, Iran's semi-official news agency, reported on Sunday.
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Stratfor: Iran-Russia: Oil for goods deal?
Reply #676 on:
January 18, 2014, 10:30:42 AM »
Russian media is again reporting that Moscow and Tehran are continuing talks related to an oil-for-goods agreement that could be worth as much as $1.5 billion per month. The Iranians are again politely refuting the reports, saying no such talks are on the agenda during Russo-Iranian bilateral meetings. Russia's proposal for the agreement was first leaked by "Russians familiar with the negotiations" to Reuters on Jan. 10, and Moscow has continued its attempts to keep the story in the media spotlight despite Iran's objections.
Details about how such a deal would be implemented are unclear, but the leaks suggest that Iran would deliver some 500,000 barrels of crude oil to Russia per day in exchange for various material goods, ranging from agricultural exports to basic machinery and supplies. We are skeptical that such an agreement will take place. Though both sides may see short-term benefits for keeping the dialogue going, the actual implementation of the deal, at least as presented by the media leaks, poses a strategic risk to both countries.
With this announcement, Russia is attempting to derail the U.S.-Iran talks, hoping to subtly complicate negotiations between Tehran and the P-5+1 group. This would give Moscow the opportunity to position itself in a Middle East in which Iran is closer to the West. The oil-for-goods deal may also prove popular inside Russia as a potential boost for the country's faltering industrial sector.
However, Russia would also begin incentivizing production in a country that could become its competitor in oil markets, should Tehran reinvest in and expand its energy production. Indeed, the program would boost oil production.
The Kremlin sees greater utility in trying to disrupt Iran's ongoing negotiations with the United States. Russia would prefer that the United States remain bogged down in Middle Eastern issues such as the Syrian civil war. However, this plan could lead to increased Iranian hydrocarbon exports to Asia, which buys the most Iranian crude and which Russia has been trying to tap.
Russia has attempted to leverage its relationship with Tehran against U.S.-Iranian relations in the past, most notably through oft-repeated and oft-refuted claims that Moscow was ready to supply Iran with S-300 air defense systems. With the Iranians and Americans now engaged in serious negotiations, the likelihood of an American strike on Iranian facilities -- and the need for advanced air defense systems -- has dropped dramatically.
With Russia attempting to present itself as a more pragmatic mediator after negotiating the Syrian chemical weapons deal and ahead of the Olympics, the Kremlin is now trying to throw off U.S.-Iran talks not through military equipment but through agricultural products and civilian machinery. The United States has already expressed unease with such a plan because it would circumvent sanctions, according to several news agencies, including al Jazeera.
The U.S. Senate has backed off from its push for additional sanctions legislation since Washington and Tehran finalized the terms of the initial nuclear deal Jan. 13. However, the oil-for-goods deal could compel the Senate to renew its efforts, which would jeopardize Iranian President Hassan Rouhani's attempts to sell the nuclear negotiations deal to his country.
In the short-term, discussions over an oil-for-goods deal would give Iran a bargaining chip in its negotiations with the West. It would show that Tehran is not entirely crippled by sanctions and has other options for the future. Moreover, the agreement would provide some immediate benefits to the Iranian government: the influx of 500,000 barrels per day's worth of oil. And Russian machinery and goods could help assuage some of the financial strain on Iran.
That said, the risks seem to outweigh the benefits for Tehran. Iran's negotiations with the United States and the P-5+1 group are necessary. While attractive, the revenue from 500,000 barrels of oil per day does not obviate the need to reduce or remove the sanctions regime. There is also a question of what the Iranians would gain directly through the deal. Admittedly, heavily sanctioned or monitored goods have been difficult for the Iranians to procure, but we have seen scarcely any verifiable evidence that the Iranians have been unable to import sufficient quantifies of foodstuffs, iron, steel, medicine and electronics equipment.
By exchanging oil for Russian goods, Tehran might reduce its import bill and increase oil production. But this undermines Iran's own domestic manufacturing and business activities, and it is unclear if Tehran really needs much of anything that Russia could barter for with oil. Ongoing sales of oil to Syria on credit with large and low-interest loans to the al Assad regime belie reports that the Iranian government's economic situation is on the brink of disaster. With an initial agreement with the United States in hand and potential easing of European financial sanctions expected in the coming weeks, pursuing a separate deal with Russia could cost Iran the gains it has already made in negotiating with the West.
Iran is also only in the early stages of seeing a potential boost in its exports to reliable Asian and regional consumers as a result of its deal with the West. Therefore, it seems as though Russia does not seriously think Iran will go for such a deal but is trying to use the possibility that it would as leverage for its own relationship with the West and the United States. However, Russia and Iran have an interest in managing expectations and placing some pressure on the United States and the P-5+1 group as the framework and implementation of the initial nuclear agreement is being worked out in Geneva. Of course, that does not mean that Iran sees Russia as a reliable partner for stabilizing its domestic economy. The oil-for-goods agreement would create too great a dependence on Moscow for the Iranians to be able to comfortably tolerate.
Read more: Iran, Russia and an Improbable Oil-for-Goods Deal | Stratfor
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Stratfor: Could a detente with US change Iran?
Reply #677 on:
January 24, 2014, 09:05:07 AM »
Could a Detente with the U.S. Change Iran?
Geopolitical Diary
Thursday, January 23, 2014 - 20:51 Text Size Print
The preliminary agreement over Iran's nuclear program is nearing implementation. But for all that has been said about how a rapprochement will affect bilateral ties, it is worth noting how it will affect each country individually. Since September, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani has often said he wants to repair ties with the United States. This is partly because the stakes are higher for the Islamic republic, which could change fundamentally if Tehran normalized relations with Washington.
On Thursday, news agencies quoted Rouhani as saying it was possible to turn 35 years of hostility with the United States into friendship if both sides make an effort. The president was responding to a question on whether there would ever be a U.S. Embassy in Tehran. (Currently, the United States conducts diplomacy with Iran through the Swiss.) Rouhani also said, "no animosity lasts forever."
What is a Geopolitical Diary? George Friedman explains.
These statements have been misinterpreted in the media. Rouhani did not exactly say that Tehran would reconcile with the United States immediately. In fact, what he said was not even unprecedented. On the contrary, his statements are consistent with the position Iran has taken since it began cooperating with the U.S. government a decade ago, when the administration of George W. Bush removed Saddam Hussein from power. In January 2008, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei addressed this matter rather candidly. Speaking to a group of students in the city of Yazd, Khamenei said that Iran did not want relations to be frozen in perpetuity. Rather, he noted that conditions in the United States at the time were such that it was not in Tehran's interests to be friendly with Washington, adding that he would be the first one to approve a rapprochement as soon as it benefited Iran.
Six years later, Tehran is still not ready to resume bilateral ties with Washington. But it sees public negotiations with the United States as beneficial. Meanwhile, the Iranians are cautiously signaling that improved relations are possible. Rouhani's position is not incongruous with Khamenei's, but the subject is nonetheless hotly debated within the Iranian political establishment.
At issue is the nature of Iran's relationship with the United States, one that is intimately tied to the prospect of reopening the embassy. Many of the Iranians that held U.S. diplomats hostage from 1979 to 1980 now hold key government positions, so an embassy would be a huge departure for the United States. But the issue possibly has even greater implications for Iran, which under former Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini sought to eliminate U.S. influence in Tehran and considered the United States a "den of spies."
From Tehran's perspective, reestablishing formal diplomatic ties leaves Iran vulnerable to U.S. influence. Many Iranians officials believe that a detente with the Americans would eventually damage the country's revolutionary pedigree. Already, there are powerful elements in the conservative establishment that think the current ruling clique of pragmatic conservatives, led by Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani and Rouhani, are playing into U.S. interests and in doing so are undermining the integrity of the republic.
For their part, the pragmatic conservatives believe that opening up to the West would not conflict with their revolutionary ideals. Their actions are informed by the need to salvage their country's economy, which has been hit hard by the latest wave of sanctions. At the same time, they also believe the republic needs domestic reform and thus needs to open up the political system.
The hard-liners' main concern is that domestic reforms and a newfound closeness with the United States could strengthen Iran's democratic institutions at the expense of its unelected ones, thereby weakening the theocratic side of its hybrid political system. In short, the clerics would lose power, as would their allies in the security establishment.
For the pragmatic conservative clerics and their reformist partners, altering Iranian policy would not bring an end to the republic. Not only do they feel that the Iranian state is internally strong, but the Rouhani camp also enjoys large support from the public, given the mandate he received in the recent elections, as well as from Khamenei and much of the traditional clergy.
However, the Rouhani administration is aware that it has embarked on a very complex and difficult path. And the government faces considerable resistance from within the state, especially from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-dominated military establishment. For this reason, there are serious limits on how much ties can be normalized. The process will be excruciatingly difficult and at times circuital, as evidenced by the latest statements by Rouhani and his foreign minister, Javad Zarif. They said the Obama administration is mischaracterizing the concessions made by Tehran in the interim nuclear agreement and that Iran did not agree to dismantle its nuclear program.
Ultimately, the Islamic republic has to reconcile its domestic contradictions before it can reconcile with the United States. The model for the Iranians is China, which established normal diplomatic relations with Washington in the 1970s but continues to assert itself as a regional and even global power with interests that conflict with those of the United States. The problem that in addition to being fiercely nationalistic, the Iranians have pan-Muslim/Islamist ambitions intertwined with geopolitical sectarianism that will prevent them from truly emulating the Chinese.
Iran wants to normalize ties with the West, but it does not want to be a pro-Western state. Thus it could form a tentative alliance with the United States when their interests converge without actually becoming an American ally.
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Too late; ball game over
Reply #678 on:
January 29, 2014, 06:15:37 PM »
Iran can now break out if it chooses to do so.
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Re: Too late; ball game over
Reply #679 on:
January 29, 2014, 10:59:08 PM »
Quote from: ccp on January 29, 2014, 06:15:37 PM
Iran can now break out if it chooses to do so.
Anyone think this wasn't the plan all along?
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Re: Iran
Reply #680 on:
January 30, 2014, 10:18:53 AM »
"Anyone think this wasn't the plan all along?"
Bush was hamstrung in Iraq and Afghanistan. I don't guess (because I really don't know) that he would have allowed this otherwise. I certainly don't thing Rumsfeld or Cheney would have. I admit myself I didn't see this back in '03. I was for bombing Iraq and now I admit it was a mistake though all those horror stories coming out of Saddam's tortured country were hard to read and think how can we just sit here and allow this to continue. Yet after all America has done for Iraq the killing still goes on and Iran was unchecked. We should have been bombing Iran's nuclear facilities all along IMHO. Now while still not too late, there is no will.
As for Obama he certainly couldn't care less about Israel or Jews. The American military does seem to have concluded 'containment' is better than pre-emptive attacks fro some years now.
Any talk of "military action is still on the table" was and has been just PR crap. It never was "on the table". Obviously Iran's leaders saw through this for the past decade.
Israel has been suckered. I guess we can only hope for an outcome similar to the Cold war.
Last Edit: January 30, 2014, 10:24:34 AM by ccp
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Re: Iran
Reply #681 on:
January 30, 2014, 10:35:26 AM »
My sense of it is this:
Bush was badly weakened by his poor leadership of the Iraq War (which would not have been a mistake had Baraq not thrown it out, quite the contrary IMHO) and the vicious opposition in the US, (some of which got rather close to aid and comfort to the enemy or worse) and the Euros (especially the Germans and French) who were doing business with Iran and didn't want to be inconvenienced.
Israel was not suckered. It has been let down-- but don't think they did not see it coming.
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Re: Iran
Reply #682 on:
January 30, 2014, 10:55:13 AM »
"Israel was not suckered. It has been let down-- but don't think they did not see it coming."
Agreed. And I would add, not only let down but foiled from taking action themselves and possibly "drawing the US in".
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Re: Iran
Reply #683 on:
January 30, 2014, 11:19:58 AM »
Yes, I agree with you, they were undercut from acting.
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Re: Iran
Reply #684 on:
January 30, 2014, 05:03:39 PM »
Actually I was talking about Buraq. This was his plan to let Iran go nuclear while he hamstrung Israel.
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12 Tribes: The entire nuke activity of Iran is going on
Reply #685 on:
February 06, 2014, 12:06:46 PM »
Iran Nuclear Chief: The Entire Nuclear Activity of Iran is Going On
Click here to watch: Iran Nuclear Chief: The Entire Nuclear Activity of Iran is Going On
Irans nuclear chief, Dr. Ali Akbar Salehi, Head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, in Tehran, took umbrage with calls to dismantle the Islamic Republics nuclear program, in a two-part interview with semi-official state news television Press TV on Tuesday. In the lengthy interview Salehi declared that rather than being dismantled, The entire nuclear activity of Iran is going on. If you look at the word dismantle and you look at it in the dictionary, dismantle means to take apart and try to put it into pieces, equipment, Salehi said, according to a Press TV transcript of the interview that was conducted in English. Well, you can come and see whether our nuclear sites, nuclear equipment and nuclear facilities are dismantled or not. The only thing we have stopped and suspended and that is voluntarily is the production of 20 percent enriched uranium and thats it. Of course, there is another thing that we have undertaken; we have committed ourselves not to install main equipment, which have been defined as to what those main equipments are in the Arak 40 megawatt heavy water reactor. The nuclear facilities are functioning; our enrichment is proceeding, its doing its work, its producing the 5 percent enriched uranium and those centrifuges that stopped producing the 20 percent will be producing 5 percent enriched uranium. In other words our production of 5 percent [uranium] will increase. The entire nuclear activity of Iran is going on. Salehi told the interviewer that the recent Geneva agreement with world powers allows Iran to switch over all of its centrifuges working to make 20 percent enriched uranium to produce to the 5 per cent threshold. He said the agreement does not impact Irans ability to develop even more efficient centrifuges, which it is working on now, and would test run for two years before putting them into mass production.
In the second part of the interview, Salehi described Irans heavy water reactor, Arak, which he classified as a research reactor for the purpose of producing radio-isotopes and making other tests: fuel tests, material tests. So many other tests that you can use this reactor and make those tests; use the neutrons and make many different tests with the neutrons emanated from the core of this reactor. But he claimed that while Irans Bushehr plant also produces plutonium, neither can do so in the quantity and at the refinement level required to create weapons-grade fuel. He said it will take two more years to finish building the Arak reactor, plus a year of testing, a year for the fuel to be used, and a year for it to cool, meaning, It takes six, seven, eight years before we are able if we intend to use the plutonium to extract the plutonium. Seven to eight years and plus you need a reprocessing plant, which we dont have and we dont intend to construct.
At the end of the interview, Press TV asked, Lets go back to November 24th, 2013 when Iran and the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany reached the so-called Geneva deal. As a nuclear scientist and MIT Graduate and, more importantly, as Irans nuclear chief, what was your first reaction? Saleh began to answer, then changed direction: I was happy that both sides reached, I mean, took the first step in a one thousand mile journey.
Source: The Algemeiner
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Good thing they don't have nukes
Reply #686 on:
February 09, 2014, 04:35:51 AM »
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Re: Iran
Reply #687 on:
February 09, 2014, 10:21:56 AM »
They will soon and as Bolton said you think they are a pain now wait till they get them.
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Jewish hospital in Iran gets $ from govt
Reply #688 on:
February 10, 2014, 11:47:00 AM »
Jewish Hospital a Fixture in Tehran
By THOMAS ERDBRINKFEB. 9, 2014
The Dr. Sapir Hospital and Charity Center on Mostafa Khomeini Street is the only Jewish hospital in Tehran and sits across from a Shiite seminary. Morteza Nikoubazl for The New York Times
TEHRAN Sitting in his office at Tehrans only Jewish hospital, Ciamak Morsadegh lit another cigarette and reminisced about how his wife left Iran for the United States after he insisted on staying.
Dr. Morsadegh, the director of the Dr. Sapir Hospital and Charity Center here, said that unlike thousands of other Jews he has never thought about leaving the Islamic Republic, for the simple reason that Iran is his home.
I speak English, I pray in Hebrew, but I think in Persian, said Dr. Morsadegh, a surgeon who is also a member of Parliament. I am Iranian. Iranian-Jewish.
Many were surprised last week when the government of President Hassan Rouhani donated $400,000 to the Dr. Sapir Hospital, but Dr. Morsadegh was not among them.
We Jews are a part of Irans history, he said. What is important is that Mr. Rouhani makes big news out of supporting us. He is showing that we, as a religious minority, are part of this country, too.
Situated on Mostafa Khomeini Street named for the son of the Islamic Republics founder, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini the hospital sits across from the Imam Reza Seminary school, one of the oldest Shiite seminaries in Tehran. White-turbaned clerics pass by, talking in hushed tones with their students. Though the hospital might seem out of place, local people do not seem to think so.
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I speak English, I pray in Hebrew, but I think in Persian. CIAMAK MORSADEGH Director of the Dr. Sapir Hospital and Charity Center in Tehran. Morteza Nikoubazl for The New York Times
When I am sick I go across the street, Mohammad Mirghanin, a seminary student, said as he rushed to class. They might have a different religion, but they are fellow Iranians. I do not see why I should not go to the Jewish hospital.
On Saturday, a woman in a traditional black chador approached Khoddad Asnashahri, the hospitals managing director and a Muslim, and asked for help.
I went to the Iman Khomeini hospital with my daughter who needs a sonogram, but over there it costs 500,000 to man, or roughly $200, said the woman, Zahra Hajabdolmaleki.
We will help you here for half that amount, Mr. Asnashahri pledged.
Named after a Jewish doctor who died in 1921 while trying to cure patients during a typhus epidemic raging through Tehran, the hospital started out as a clinic where all Iranians could come for medical care at vastly reduced rates. For more than 50 years it has been a meeting point for Iranian Jews and Muslims and the most prominent Jewish charity in the capital.
Mr. Asnashahri, who has worked at the hospital for nearly 48 years, praised the good atmosphere while also noting that only five Jewish physicians remained. Many have migrated and others have bought shares in more modern hospitals, he said.
About 96 percent of patients are Muslim, like most of the hospitals employees. But what mattered most, he said, was the message that here all people can come, no matter what religion, color or race.
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An Iranian orderly at the pharmacy counter in Dr. Sapir Hospital. The hospital began as a clinic with reduced rates for care. Morteza Nikoubazl for The New York Times
Though the Jewish population of Iran is dwindling now at about 9,000, according to an official census by the Statistical Center of Iran, though other estimates range to 20,000 the country has the largest number of Jews in the Middle East after Israel.
Dr. Morsadegh, the surgeon, has devoted his life to that diminishing community. He was a leader of the Tehran Jewish Committee, a group that supports synagogues, schools and other facets of Jewish life in Iran, and in 2008 was elected as the Jewish representative in Parliament, where five official religious minorities have a permanent seat.
He will not say that the situation for Jews and the other official religious minorities Christian Armenians, Assyrians, Chaldeans and Zoroastrians is perfect in Iran. The five minorities would like to see an Islamic law changed that allows one of their faith who converts to Islam to get the entire inheritance of his or her non-Muslim family, for example. Yet things are worse for evangelical Christians and Bahais, who can face prison sentences and in many cases exclusion from higher education.
Dr. Morsadegh said former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejads repeated Holocaust denials left psychological scars, as well. Look, all Jews believe in the Holocaust, he said. It would have been much better if the former president had not raised that issue.
President Rouhani has remained silent on the Holocaust, and in September his social media team wished Jews around the world a happy Rosh Hashana.
It has gotten a lot better, Dr. Morsadegh said, recalling how thousands of Jews left the country after the 1979 revolution. Many more have emigrated since then, often because of Irans bad economy.
Though Dr. Sapir Hospital is Jewish owned, there is not much that would remind one of Jewish heritage. On the wall of Dr. Morsadeghs office are two portraits of Irans past and current supreme leaders, facing a painting of Moses holding up the Ten Commandments. In September, Dr. Morsadegh joined President Rouhani on his trip to the United Nations in New York. Some in Iran have hinted at a connection between the presidents financial donation to the hospital and Dr. Morsadeghs enthusiastic defense of Iran and the position of Jews in the country.
But the doctor is not bothered by those questions. I helped out in the war with Iraq for this country, as a first aid doctor, he said. And Id do it again tomorrow.
Power User
Posts: 29669
Poet executed
Reply #689 on:
February 10, 2014, 01:42:31 PM »
second post
Feb. 9, 2014 5:53 p.m. ET
From a statement by the independent watchdog group Freedom House, Feb. 5:
Freedom House condemns Iran's execution on January 27 of renowned Iranian poet Hashem Shaabani. In July 2013, an Islamic Revolutionary Tribunal had sentenced the poet to death, along with 14 others, on charges of "waging war on God," "spreading corruption on earth," and "questioning the principle of velayat-e faqih" (the rule of the jurisprudent, Iran's system of vesting supreme power in an unelected cleric), according to press reports. . . .
Shaabani and one other person were hanged at an undisclosed prison after the sentences were approved by President Hassan Rouhani.
During Shaabani's three-year incarceration, he was subjected to severe torture and interrogation. Shaabani, aged 32, was an Iranian of Arab origin and a founder of the Dialogue Institute, which tried to promote understanding of Arabic culture and literature in Iran.
Power User
Posts: 11506
Re: Poet executed
Reply #690 on:
February 10, 2014, 04:04:23 PM »
Global muslim outrage in 3.....2......never
Quote from: Crafty_Dog on February 10, 2014, 01:42:31 PM
second post
Feb. 9, 2014 5:53 p.m. ET
From a statement by the independent watchdog group Freedom House, Feb. 5:
Freedom House condemns Iran's execution on January 27 of renowned Iranian poet Hashem Shaabani. In July 2013, an Islamic Revolutionary Tribunal had sentenced the poet to death, along with 14 others, on charges of "waging war on God," "spreading corruption on earth," and "questioning the principle of velayat-e faqih" (the rule of the jurisprudent, Iran's system of vesting supreme power in an unelected cleric), according to press reports. . . .
Shaabani and one other person were hanged at an undisclosed prison after the sentences were approved by President Hassan Rouhani.
During Shaabani's three-year incarceration, he was subjected to severe torture and interrogation. Shaabani, aged 32, was an Iranian of Arab origin and a founder of the Dialogue Institute, which tried to promote understanding of Arabic culture and literature in Iran.
Power User
Posts: 2104
oh hell: Iraq signs deal to buy arms, ammunition from Iran
Reply #691 on:
February 25, 2014, 09:33:47 AM »
Iran has signed a deal to sell Iraq arms and ammunition worth $195 million, according to documents seen by Reuters - a move that would break a U.N. embargo on weapons sales by Tehran.
The agreement was reached at the end of November, the documents showed, just weeks after Iraq's Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki returned from lobbying the Obama administration in Washington for extra weapons to fight al Qaeda-linked militants.
Power User
Posts: 3796
Re: Iran
Reply #692 on:
March 11, 2014, 07:28:04 PM »
This was discussed today on Dick Morris radio (actually a really good show - he is really interesting). But I thought Libya took responsibility for Lockerbee and admitted it?
******Ex-Iranian intel officer says Iran, not Libya, behind Lockerbie attack
Ex-Iranian intel officer says Iran, not Libya, behind Lockerbie attack
March. 11, 2014 at 4:17 PM | 1 Comment
EDINBURGH, Scotland, March 11 (UPI) -- The 1988 Lockerbie jetliner bombing was payback for the U.S. Navy's downing of an Iranian airliner six months earlier, an ex-Iranian intelligence officer says.
Abolghassem Mesbahi says Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khomeini ordered the attack on Pan Am Flight 103 over Lockerbie, Scotland, in which 290 people died, to avenge the accidental shooting down of Iran Air Flight 655 over the Persian Gulf by the USS Vincennes and left 270 people dead, the Daily Telegraph reported Monday.
The London newspaper said previously unreleased evidence that was to have been used in an appeal hearing for Abdelbaset al-Megrahi, the former Libyan intelligence officer convicted of the bombing, supports Mesbahi's contention. The Lockerbie bombing was carried out by the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine -- General Command, the newspaper said the evidence suggests.
The Telegraph said documents obtained by the Arab television network al-Jazeera for a documentary called "Lockerbie: What Really Happened?" names key individuals allegedly involved in the attack.
The Telegraph said the new evidence puts the conviction of al-Megrahi in question and supports allegations the truth about Lockerbie was covered up by Britain and the United States to avoid angering Syria, a key player in the Middle East
Al-Megrahi, the only man convicted in the Lockerbie attack, dropped his appeal after being released from prison in 2009 because he was suffering from cancer, though he maintained his innocence until his death in 2012.
Al-Megrahi's conviction was based on the prosecution's theory that Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi had personally ordered the Lockerbie attack in retaliation for the U.S. bombing of Tripoli and Benghazi in 1986, in which Gadhafi's daughter was killed.
But Mesbahi contends it was Iran, not Libya, that sought revenge.
"Iran decided to retaliate as soon as possible," Mesbahi, who had reported directly to Iranian President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani and now lives under a witness protection program in Germany, told al-Jazeera. "The decision was made by the whole system in Iran and confirmed by Ayatollah Khomeini.
"The target of the Iranian decision-makers was to copy exactly what happened to the Iranian Airbus. Everything exactly the same, minimum 290 people dead."
The newspaper reported the U.S. State Department said it wanted all those responsible for the Lockerbie attack brought to justice, while Britain's Foreign Office said the case remains open because investigators believe al-Megrahi didn't act alone.
The Iranian government had no comment on the documentary's findings, but has previously denied any involvement in the bombing of Pan Am Flight 103.
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Instead of opening a jar of sauce, try this easy spaghetti with meat sauce on a weeknight. Serve with steamed broccoli and garlic bread. The recipe makes enough for 8 servings. If you're serving only four for dinner, cook 8 ounces of spaghetti and freeze the leftover sauce.
Recipe: Spaghetti with Quick Meat Sauce
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The Clearfield Hospital Auxiliary is cooking up a seafood feast, and the community is invited to join the fun.
The "Light up the Night with the Clearfield Hospital Auxiliary Clam Bake" is planned for July 14 from 7 p.m. to 2 a.m. at the Clearfield-Curwensville Country Club, and the planning committee expects it will become an annual event.
"The auxiliary is very excited to host this new event. The night will be a summer evening of fun while raising monies for the Clearfield Hospital," stated Jacque Starr of the planning committee.
In addition to an ample selection of seafood, chicken and steak kabobs, and beverages, including a signature lemonade cocktail in a light-up souvenir glass, activities planned include dancing to the band Live Bait, a putting-on-the-green contest, a silent auction and ticket sales for a chance to win $10,000, to be drawn at the Charity Ball.
Starr said the committee is very pleased with the donations it has received for the silent auction, which will feature a variety of unique and interesting items including Steelers tickets; Lanager's Christmas tree and wreath; six-month membership to Curves; YMCA membership; Clearfield Community Pool membership; World of Travel gift certificate; Taffy's Salon gift certificate; Strawberry Tree tea and lunch; Country Club social membership; Starr Hill Winery basket; two tickets to Charity Ball and $100 raffle chance; and an ice cream party featuring a visit from Dave Duke's Ice Dreams/Ice Cream Truck.
Dress for the event is summer casual; the committee is requesting that jeans not be worn. Proceeds from the event will be used to support the hospital and its patients by funding special projects and volunteer programs.
Tickets may be purchased by sending a check made out to the Clearfield Hospital Auxiliary to Sue Diehl, 109 Elizabeth St., Clearfield, PA, 16830. The cost for a couple is $75; a single ticket is $40. Limited seating is available; the RSVP deadline is June 22, or call Starr at 768-2165.
The Clearfield Hospital Auxiliary is cooking up a seafood feast, and the community is invited to join the fun.


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Nation & World
- Nation & World
VIDEO: Michigan woman's death, mummified body hidden by auto-pay for six years
The mummified body of a Michigan woman was discovered in the backseat of her car approximately six years after her death. The body was only found after the bank that foreclosed on the home ordered work on the property.
Patton moves east for new corrections gig
In Robert C. Patton, Oklahoma is getting a new corrections director from Arizona who is more than willing to use private prisons as a means to deal with inmate overcrowding.
"I'm a (prison) bed manager. I'll tell the policy makers I need beds, and if I can convince them that I need beds, then it's their jobs on whether it's public or private," said Patton, whose first day as Oklahoma Corrections Department director began Tuesday.
Patton's position on private prisons is far different than that of Jones, the former director who resigned in October following clashes with elected officials who wanted to put more inmates in private facilities.
The Oklahoma Board of Corrections last month approved a measure that allows the state to seek proposals from private prison companies to provide an additional 350 to 2,000 medium-security beds for state inmates.
2 in Indiana sickened after eating contaminated Skittles
Health officials say packages of Original Skittles sold at a convenience store in Richmond, Ind., were contaminated, and two people who ate from a package were hospitalized with symptoms including burning throats, cramping and diarrhea.
Frigid U.S. weather means highest power prices since '08
Freezing temperatures gripping the eastern U.S. will result in the highest electricity prices in six years for consumers in Boston, Dallas and San Francisco.
Lilly's diabetes drug rejected by FDA
A diabetes pill developed by Eli Lilly and Boehringer Ingelheim was rejected by U.S. regulators because of previously disclosed manufacturing deficiencies at a German plant that hadn't been resolved.
Facebook cracking down on illegal gun sales planned on site
Facebook is cracking down on illegal gun sales planned through its website, seeking to prevent criminal activity and setting a precedent other social- media sites could follow.
VIDEO: Mother, children rescued from van in ocean
Witnesses in Daytona Beach watched as a woman drove her van with three children into the ocean. Their dramatic rescue was captured on video.
Industry giants represented at Oak Tree
Two corporate leaders discussed their company's respective impact of business expansion on the local economy Thursday at the Edmond Chamber of Commerce Membership Luncheon.
Michael Ming serves as general manager of General Electric's new Global Research Oil & Gas Technology Center to be constructed in Oklahoma City. He formerly served as Oklahoma's Secretary of Energy under Gov. Mary Fallin.
Ralph Nader's list of 20 people he thinks should consider a run for president
It's no secret that Ralph Nader has always been a big fan of the idea of third-party presidential candidates. On Monday, Nader - one of the best-known third-party candidate in recent American electoral history - released a list of 20 multi-millionaires and billionaires who he thinks should give real thought to mounting a presidential bid in 2016.
Russia's post-Olympics crackdown
This week hundreds of activists - including Nadezhda Tolokonnikova and Maria Alykhina - were arrested in Moscow for protesting against sentencing of seven men on charges related to the mass protests that broke out around Vladimir Putin's return to the presidency in 2012.
- More Nation & World Headlines
- VIDEO: Michigan woman's death, mummified body hidden by auto-pay for six years


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Martha Stewart Crafts "Sweet" Pie Box
Material List
- Martha Stewart Crafts™ Pie Box Templates
- Martha Stewart Crafts™ Craft Knife
- Martha Stewart Crafts™ Craft Ruler
- Martha Stewart Crafts™ Bone Folder
- Martha Stewart Crafts™ Screw Punch
- Scrapbook Paper - Orange and Pale Yellow
- Recollections™ Adhesive Tape
- Martha Stewart Crafts™ Glitter - Florentine Gold
Project Instructions
Use template, craft knife, ruler, and bone folder to make a pie box from orange paper. Assemble with double-sided tape.
Cut a triangle the same size as the pie box and cover with Florentine Gold glitter.
Cut a slightly smaller triangle from pale yellow paper. Print out "sweet" template and place over yellow triangle, punching through both with the Screw Punch. Layer a piece of orange paper behind the punched- out text and trim edges flush with yellow triangle. Secure with double- sided tape.
Attach glittered triangle and punched triangle to pie box with double-sided tape.


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At the University of Kansas School of Medicine, future doctors are welcomed into a culture of community, forming bonds with peers and mentors by learning together, not competing separately. Through this support system, students reach common goals of serving their community, unlocking the mysteries of medicine and promoting lifelong wellness.
Top rankings
Providing students with an outstanding medical education remains at the heart of the School of Medicine's mission.
Three diverse academic environments
The School of Medicine has campuses at three locations in Kansas and has gained a national reputation for educating family, primary-care and rural physicians.
Hands-on learning
Medical students have unique opportunities to learn through community service and research.


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