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Moment-based estimation of smooth transition regression models with endogenous variables
AbstractNonlinear regression models have been widely used in practice for a variety of time series and cross-section datasets. For purposes of analyzing univariate and multivariate time series data, in particular, smooth transition regression (STR) models have been shown to be very useful for representing and capturing asymmetric behavior. Most STR models have been applied to univariate processes, and have made a variety of assumptions, including stationary or cointegrated processes, uncorrelated, homoskedastic or conditionally heteroskedastic errors, and weakly exogenous regressors. Under the assumption of exogeneity, the standard method of estimation is nonlinear least squares. The primary purpose of this paper is to relax the assumption of weakly exogenous regressors and to discuss moment-based methods for estimating STR models. The paper analyzes the properties of the STR model with endogenous variables by providing a diagnostic test of linearity of the underlying process under endogeneity, developing an estimation procedure and a misspecification test for the STR model, presenting the results of Monte Carlo simulations to show the usefulness of the model and estimation method, and providing an empirical application for inflation rate targeting in Brazil. We show that STR models with endogenous variables can be specified and estimated by a straightforward application of existing results in the literature.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Econometrics.
Volume (Year): 165 (2011)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 100-111
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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jeconom
Related researchKeywords: Smooth transition; Nonlinear models; Nonlinear instrumental variables; Generalized method of moments; Endogeneity; Inflation targeting;
Other versions of this item:
- Areosa, W.D. & McAleer, M.J. & Medeiros, M.C., 2008. "Moment-bases estimation of smooth transition regression models with endogenous variables," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2008-36, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
- Waldyr Dutra Areosa & Michael McAleer & Marcelo Cunha Medeiros, 2010. "Moment-based estimation of smooth transition regression models with endogenous variables," Textos para discussão 571, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
- Waldyr Dutra Areosa & Michael McAleer & Marcelo C. Medeiros, 2009. "Moment-Based Estimation of Smooth Transition Regression Models with Endogenous Variables," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-671, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
ReferencesReferences listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Frederic S. Mishkin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2001.
"One decade of inflation targeting in the world : What do we know and what do we need to know?,"
Working Papers Central Bank of Chile
101, Central Bank of Chile.
- Frederic S. Mishkin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2001. "One Decade of Inflation Targeting in the World: What Do We Know and What Do We Need to Know?," NBER Working Papers 8397, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Mayte Suarez Farinãs & Carlos Eduardo Pedreira & Marcelo C. Medeiros, 2003.
"Local-global neural networks: a new approach for nonlinear time series modelling,"
Textos para discussão
470, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
- Mayte Suarez -Farinas & Carlos E. Pedreira & Marcelo C. Medeiros, 2004. "Local Global Neural Networks: A New Approach for Nonlinear Time Series Modeling," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 99, pages 1092-1107, December.
- Li, W K & Ling, Shiqing & McAleer, Michael, 2002. " Recent Theoretical Results for Time Series Models with GARCH Errors," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 245-69, July.
- Martin Cerisola & Gaston Gelos, 2005.
"What Drives Inflation Expectations in Brazil? An Empirical Analysis,"
IMF Working Papers
05/109, International Monetary Fund.
- Martin Cerisola & Gaston Gelos, 2009. "What drives inflation expectations in Brazil? An empirical analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(10), pages 1215-1227.
- McAleer, Michael, 2005. "Automated Inference And Learning In Modeling Financial Volatility," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(01), pages 232-261, February.
- Amemiya, Takeshi, 1974. "The nonlinear two-stage least-squares estimator," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 105-110, July.
- Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 2000.
"Inflation Dynamics: A Structural Econometric Analysis,"
NBER Working Papers
7551, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 195-222, October.
- Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 1998. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Economics Working Papers 341, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
- Sergio A. L. Alves & Waldyr D. Areosa, 2005. "Targets and Inflation Dynamics," Working Papers Series 100, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
- Medeiros, Marcelo & Veiga, Alvaro, 2000. "A Flexible Coefficient Smooth Transition Time Series Model," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 360, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 10 Feb 2000.
- Newey, Whitney K, 1990.
"Efficient Instrumental Variables Estimation of Nonlinear Models,"
Econometric Society, vol. 58(4), pages 809-37, July.
- Newey, W.K., 1989. "Efficient Instrumental Variables Estimation Of Nonlinear Models," Papers 341, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
- Whitney K. Newey & James L. Powell, 2003. "Instrumental Variable Estimation of Nonparametric Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(5), pages 1565-1578, 09.
- Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G., 1993. "Estimation and Inference in Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195060119, September.
- Nobay, A. R. & Peel, D. A., 2000. "Optimal monetary policy with a nonlinear Phillips curve," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 159-164, May.
CitationsCitations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
Cited by:
- Naoto Kunitomo & Michael McAleer & Yoshihiko Nishiyama, 2010.
"Moment Restriction-based Econometric Methods: An Overview,"
KIER Working Papers
734, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
- Kunitomo, N. & McAleer, M.J. & Nishiyama, Y., 2010. "Moment Restriction-based Econometric Methods: An Overview," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2010-61, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
- Naoto Kunitomo & Michael McAleer & Yoshihiko Nishiyama, 2010. "Moment Restriction-based Econometric Methods: An Overview," Working Papers in Economics 10/65, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
- Line Elvstrøm Ekner & Emil Nejstgaard, 2013. "Parameter Identification in the Logistic STAR Model," Discussion Papers 13-07, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
- Olivier Damette, 2013. "Mixture distribution hypothesis and the impact of a Tobin tax on exhange rate volatility : a reassessment," Working Papers of BETA 2013-07, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
- Asai, Manabu & Brugal, Ivan, 2013. "Forecasting volatility via stock return, range, trading volume and spillover effects: The case of Brazil," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 202-213.
- Eric Hillebrand & Marcelo C. Medeiros & Junyue Xu, 2012.
"Asymptotic Theory for Regressions with Smoothly Changing Parameters,"
CREATES Research Papers
2012-31, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
- Hillebrand Eric & Medeiros Marcelo C. & Xu Junyue, 2013. "Asymptotic Theory for Regressions with Smoothly Changing Parameters," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(2), pages 133-162, April.
- Donald W.K. Andrews & Xu Cheng, 2011.
"GMM Estimation and Uniform Subvector Inference with Possible Identification Failure,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
1828, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Donald W.K. Andrews & Xu Cheng, 2011. "GMM Estimation and Uniform Subvector Inference with Possible Identification Failure," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1828, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jan 2013.
- Massacci, Daniele, 2012. "A simple test for linearity against exponential smooth transition models with endogenous variables," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(3), pages 851-856.
- Massacci, Daniele, 2013. "A variable addition test for exogeneity in structural threshold models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 120(1), pages 5-9.
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2007-06-18 / People/Social
Andrew Parker of Massapequa named a Presser Scholar
Andrew Parker of Massapequa Park, a 2004 graduate of Massapequa High School and now a junior oboe performance major at the Conservatory of Music at SUNY Purchase, Purchase, New York, has been named a Presser Scholar.
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We loved Chromatics performance and Johnny Jewels fun eye makeup at FYF this past Labor Day weekend. Any thoughts on dudes that sport makeup? Know of one that does it right? Photo reply or comment below!
Purple people eaters. Loving violet hues in hair and on peepers during Paris Fashion Week!
Fourteen days until Valentines Day and for those who are newly single, well, it's slightly dreadful. Leave it up to Lush to create the most adorable (and hilarious) bath bomb to soak away the sorrows and bring a couple giggles while at it!
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So is AMA going private?
When AMA arrived on the scene they introduced themselves with a post. They told the members who they were and what to expect from them, along with their commintment to the members. I'm sure no one would dispute that they have done exactly what they promised and have gone above that. With so many sponsors they paved a new path and did things their own way. The Alpha way! Many followed suit copying thier contests, sales and some even copied their VIP/Avatar programs but they remained the source others copied, the original. Most of you guys know me and know I can be a little quick to snap and i remember taking this as a slap in the face. The Crew told me to let it be and reminded me that immitation was a form of flattery and that it was good for the board. They knew no one could touch their quality and just saw it as a good thing for the members to be able to have sources trying to better themselves and told me to relax. As others caught up to them and copied their style, they were always ahead of the curve, making changes and improving their products with upgraded lines, all the while keeping prices affordable. I say all this because i have been proud to represent them here and i think they have done a lot for the boards and its members in many different ways. For those that have never had the chance to use them, its safe to say you missed out on some amazing quality.
There are some BIG chages coming in the future that will be announced at a later date. For now I hope you guys and girls enjoy following along or better yet participating in the Transformation contest. I have not been given all the details of their plans but i was told this will be their last gift to the boards.
I would like to thank all AMA supporters, reps and of course our die hard VIPS.
I have been instructed to have ALL VIPS pm one of the reps. Your loyalty and support is about to pay off
Previously known as PITCREW but you can call me DADDY
Lift, Eat, Shower, Fuck, and Don't take shit
So is AMA going private?
Please don't go no where!
Bump..... This is very important to you guys
Previously known as PITCREW but you can call me DADDY
Lift, Eat, Shower, Fuck, and Don't take shit
Hey. Been MIA for a min with family and work. Hope all is well! What up Sheri!
Sent from my SPH-L710 using Tapatalk
Hey. Been MIA for a min with family and work. Hope all is well! What up Sheri!
Was supposed to say What's up Sherk.
Sent from my SPH-L710 using Tapatalk<br/>
Sent from my SPH-L710 using Tapatalk
Hey Sherk I sent you a pm, I want to get in on this.
EVERYONE IS TOO LATE EXCEPT THE VIPS! I am not giving out any information, excepting any new VIPs for any reason or allowing people to be able to order. Frankly, I'm not 100% sure on how this is even going to work until it is explained to me. I have no idea if this is meaning AMA is now private and invite only or if it is simply changing the ordering process to get away from the web site. So people, calm down!! It's not my decision or authority to say whether or not you can order and I am not going to beg for anyone. When the time comes and IF, let me repeat that, IF AMA is going private then all I can do is make my best judgment from who you are on the boards and see if you qualify. Not by telling me the exact amount of orders, types of cycles you've run from them or any other story you want to come up with. I don't want to read your mile long pm telling me how much you love AMA. That means nothing to me in the ways of persuasion. So for now, just sit back and wait for the news to be posted and just fallow any directions that might be given.
To the VIPs, if you haven't already pm'd one of us reps, please don't forget too.
I believe I was lost in the mix. Pleases add to list
Hey. Bro just found out u went private yesterday when I couldn't order and my brother told me if I didn't get a pm I couldn't order anymore. I know everyone is probably blowing u up but if u could add mee to list and pm me the new way to order would be much appreciate. Would hate to lose u guys. Personal email xxxxx
Last edited by Sherk; 03-27-2014 at 05:18 PM.
Ur rt very stupid believe or not I thought I was pm ing u. Been trying to send u a pm but not letting keeps sending me to some bag saying for elite members only. Not sure if cuz not friend with or new to this site. But not new AMA been loyal supporter for least 6 months and want to stay. So if u no what I'm doing wrong. Through a bone thanks ans sorry not using brain earliee
No worries bro. You need 11 posts to be able to pm. But firstname.lastname@example.com is where you can now acquire a list. But do not make your order from that email. You'll get no response and you'll get no order. Get your post count up, email that addy, then pm me and I'll walk you though the rest if needed.


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There is more than one artist with this name: 1) A band from Oakland, California who play both indie rock and alternative hip-hop 2) A folk rock band from England active in the 1990s. 1) A trio of Cincinnati-born men who fiddle with skins, strings, bells and microphones and present their findings to the listening public. Singer Yoni Wolf grew up the second son to an art book editor and a rabbi. He got his start recording bad poems and sloppy beats on the family synagogue's 4-track. In junior high he discovered hip-hop.


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A few promotional pics are added in our Gallery:
You are here: Home ‹ Board index ‹ Movie Discussion ‹ All Other/Older Movies ‹ (2008) Horton Hears a Who
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Discuss this animation. Available on DVD and Blu-ray.
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Bad blood [sound recording]
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Adult Fiction SANDFOR
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Virgil Flowers
Divorced three times; member of the Bureau of Criminal Apprehension; investigating two deaths in two days - a murder and a suicide that lead him to a multigeneration, multifamily conspiracy.
Police detective


text:
The 2011 International Roofing Expo will have a Renewable Energy Pavilion, a designated area on the show floor that will educate conference attendees on this fast-growing segment of the industry. Displays will showcase the benefits of using renewable energy products, including solar, green/eco-friendly, photovoltaics, vegetative, roof-mounted wind turbines, day lighting, geothermal and other renewable energy products.
Companies exhibiting in the Renewable Energy Pavilion include Ambassador Energy, Cool Roof Rating Council, Dow Building Solutions, Heat Barrier Systems, Horizon Exterior Technology, Integrated Power Corporation, LiveRoof, Orion Energy Systems, PHP Systems/Design, Quick Mount PV, Silverback Solar, SolarFrameWorks, USP™ Energy Coatings, and U.S. Sunlight Corporation.
In addition to the products, a two-day series of 30-minute educational demonstrations will take place on Wednesday, February 16 and Thursday, February 17. Participating companies include Dow Building Solutions, NRCA, Silverback Solar, Green Roof Blocks, RRCI, Clean Power Finance and Natron Resources. An additional 15 minutes will be allowed per demonstration for questions and answers.
Entrance to the Renewable Energy Pavilion is included free of charge in all registration packages. Visit the Roofing Expo website to register for the event, as well as find complete details about the Renewable Energy Pavilion, exhibitors and educational conference information. Discounted registration rates are available through January 11, 2011.
The International Roofing Expo will be held February 16-18, 2011, in the North Halls at the Las Vegas Convention Center in Las Vegas, Nevada USA. For general show inquires, please call 972.536.6350 or 888.869.8522.


text:
Club Statement
A Club statement confirms bids for two players rejected.
Everton can confirm that it has received bids from Manchester United for two players. Those bids were immediately rejected out of hand as derisory and insulting.
The Club did not make public these details as it was vital Roberto Martinez's preparations for the opening game of the Premier League season were not disrupted in anyway.
Alan Myers
Director of Communications
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text: A wordy, multiple-panel strip with extended conversation and developed personalities does not condense to a coffee mug illustration without great violation to the strip's spirit. The subtleties of a multi-dimensional strip are sacrificed for the one-dimensional needs of the product.Even if Watterson hasn't approved, nothing in the USPS committee's selection criteria requires artist approval. [more inside]


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So what happens when Google, Amazon, and your local library come up short in your quest for free educational eBooks?
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Irving Joel Morales's curator insight, April 17, 2013 2:19 AM
algunas empresas están tomando los primeros pasos tentativos.
gruppo 1 master's curator insight, May 23, 2013 12:57 PM
Format: list
Author: Adhijit Kadle
Target: all
Topic: links to blogs, to slideshare presentations, reports
Tags: List, Mobile Learning, Mobile Learning Links
Filipe Cálix's curator insight, January 20, 10:16 AM
Mobile Learning: "surfar a onda ou ser apanhado pela maré?"
yveline jacob's curator insight, September 18, 12:20 PM
en lien avec la sécurité des réseaux informatiques
Steve Vaitl's curator insight, September 16, 9:47 AM
Very nice extensions for Chrome Browser users!!
Rosemary Talab's curator insight, September 12, 9:13 AM
A digital teaching platform - Thanks, Dr. Dede, for your prescience! #edtech


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And finally, IoT is emerging in so-called smart cities, where all kinds of devices and assets such as traffic lights, parking meters and garbage truck fleets are gradually being connected to the Internet. Municipal government IT executives will need to be aware of how these assets tie in to the network.
IT and OT convergence
What will likely happen is a convergence of operational technology and IT. "As these machines go onto the corporate network the CIO or the COO need to start talking together about what the future is going to look like when traditional IT stuff and OT stuff are overlapping on the network," LeHong says.
"Who is responsible for providing security, for example," LeHong says. "There are skill sets that exist in IT that are very developed, but that are new or not a prime focus for the operations guy. There can be some synergies."
IT executives will need to prepare themselves for situations such as when an IP-based vending machine is creating software replenishment orders for out-of-stock items using an enterprise resource planning application, LeHong says.
"When it creates the replenishment order does the vending machine need a user license" for the ERP application, LeHong says. "CIOs need to get an understanding of this. Even if they are not going to own the vending machines, they need to worry about things like that. That's what we mean by convergence. OT and IT can't sit in separate worlds anymore. They need to discuss things like governance, security, software licensing and maintenance."
In terms of networking technology and strategies at enterprises, IoT will have a significant impact. According to a report on IoT trends published by Gartner in 2012, things will be connected, but not necessarily in the ways most familiar to companies today.
"Wi-Fi, 3G/4G cellular and Bluetooth are the wireless connectivity technologies we are most familiar with; however, they will not be the only way things connect to the Internet," the report states.
These network technologies and protocols consume lots of power and are designed for higher-bandwidth applications, the firm says, but many things (for example, a temperature/humidity sensor in a remote agricultural setting) will require low bandwidth, long range and very low power consumption.
In addition, things will need to be addressable. Every computer, smartphone and tablet is addressable on the Internet, directly or indirectly via IP, the Gartner report says, and "it follows that things will also need to be addressable so they can communicate with other things, applications and people on the Internet."
While not every "thing" will have an IP address, it will need to be addressable.
Big Data
Then there are the data management issues. Getting the most value out of IoT requires an ability to manage data and gain insight from analyzing that data, Gartner says.
If everything has the potential to provide some type of data stream, companies will need technologies to manage, store and analyze the data. While some organizations might be able to leverage existing information management tools, many will need to bring in new technologies designed to handle the real-time and large-scale nature of the IoT.
Recent IT trends such as the move to the cloud and implementations of big data and analytics will likely come into play with the IoT, experts say.
"Are you going to procure cloud services for hooking up these things to the corporate network?" LeHong says. "And it's not just questions about the cloud, but about end-point management and architecture. Let's say you have a jet engine or a pump in an oil field that can produce a terabyte of information per day. That's a lot of data."
From an architectural standpoint, IT and operations will need to decide whether to store that data on site, in the cloud or in a corporate data store.
Looking ahead to the next few years, growth of the IoT will probably be greatest in areas such as inventory tracking and supply chain management, Castro says. But given the way technology is developing, it's likely that the IoT will be pervasive in many aspects of business.
Violino is a freelance writer. He can be reached at email@example.com.
Read more about LAN and WAN in Network World's LAN & WAN section.


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South Miami commissioners have tentatively approved a $21.2 million budget for the 2013-14 fiscal year, a 4.8 percent increase from this year.
The budget is scheduled for final approval after a public hearing at 7:30 p.m. Tuesday at City Hall, 6130 Sunset Drive.
The tax rate would remain the same as this year's, at $4.3639 for every $1,000 of taxable property. That means that the longtime owner of a $200,000 home will pay about $669. That is a $15 increase, and assumes the homeowner qualifies for the $50,000 homestead exemption, and that the home's taxable value increased by 1.7 percent, the maximum allowed this year for an owner-occupied home.
Chief Financial Officer Alfredo Riverol said the proposed spending increase is due to the city budgeting more than $200,000 more for the sixth phase of a citywide storm-water drainage system improvement project; about $100,000 for license-plate readers that will be installed on some police cars; and about $61,000 more for transportation project improvements such as street and median upgrades.
The city is able to afford the extra spending without raising property taxes and other fees because it has accumulated savings in different funds over the years.
The license plate readers will be funded through the federal forfeitures fund, an account where revenue has accumulated during the past couple of years from drug busts and similar police operations.
"That fund is really rich at the moment," said Mayor Philip Stoddard.
Money from the forfeiture fund can only be spent on drug-prevention programs and safety initiatives such as the license-plate readers.
South Miami projects to collect an extra $100,000 next year from electric utility fees because of increases in electricity cost, said Riverol.
In addition, the city is expecting to collect more from building-permit fees.
"During the recession construction largely stopped and now we have a number of projects in the city," said Stoddard, adding that there are both residential and commercial projects underway.


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The Ultimate Survival Technologies MoonForce 1AAA
survival light is so compact that you can have it with you at all times. A
convenient mini-carabiner enables you to attach it to just about anything,
including tent or backpack zipper pulls.
The Ultimate Survival Technologies MoonForce LR41 survival light is
so compact that you can have it with you at all times. A convenient mini-biner
clip enables you to attach it to just about anything, including backpack or
sleeping bag zipper pulls.
Providing nighttime illumination, visibility and safety for runners, cyclists, backpackers, hikers or adventure racers, the Nathan StrobeLight securely and easily attaches to your belt, apparel, backpack or gear.
Replacement globe fits Snow Peak GL-100 backpacking lantern.
Leading the way in sustainable design, Black Diamond's NRG and NRG2 Car Charger allows you to repower your NRG or NRG2 kits by plugging directly into any car's 12-volt socket and eliminating the need for disposable batteries.
Compatible with all Petzl Tikka and Zipka series headlamps, the multi-mount ADAPT Kit system allows your headlamp to attach to a helmet, a belt or a backpack shoulder strap.
The sturdy, padded Petzl Tikka 2 Pouch protects your Petzl headlamp from wear and tear and holds spare batteries or lenses. Compatible with Petzl Tikkina 2, Tikka 2, Tactikka, Tikka Plus 2, Tactikka Plus and Tikka XP 2 headlamps.
The sturdy, padded Petzl Zipka 2 Pouch protects your Petzl headlamp from wear and tear and holds spare batteries or lenses. Compatible with Petzl Zipka 2 and Zipka Plus 2 models only.
The Petzl Tikka CORE USB Charger is a wall plug adapter for your Petzl ACCU Core battery. The charger includes multiple adapters for use in Europe, North America and the United Kingdom as well as a jack for use in a standard car cigarette lighter.
Offering the dual benefit of saving money and lessening the environmental impact of discarding used batteries, the Black Diamond NRG2 Rechargeable Battery Kit allows you to use your Orbit lantern without the need for disposable Alkaline batteries.
Ideal for use with the Black Diamond ReVolt headlamp (sold separately) or any electronics compatible with NiMH batteries, the ReVolt AAA Rechargeable Battery 4-Pack provides reusable power, saving the cost and waste of standard alkaline batteries.
Spare mantles fit Snow Peak GL-100 and other lanterns. Sold in packs of 3.
This metal mesh globe fits the Snow Peak GL-100 lantern. The metal mesh softens the lantern's glow and won't break if dropped.
Short for "Light Emitting Diodes", battery-powered LED lamps have a longer life than incandescent bulbs, efficiently use less electricity and are more versatile in that they can be built in varying shapes and color.


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We've had a lot of inquiries over the past few days about using Authorize.net for credit card processing on Small Farm Central sites. It's great to hear the interest, but we need to put a little bit more information out there about the advantages and disadvantages of using this advanced checkout option.
Some items to consider:
For the right farm, Authorize.net is a great option, but it is important to remember that there are some extra costs and extra set-up time. Contact us to get started with authorize.net. For more info read the following help docs:
Further documentation:
-Paypal vs. Authorize.net price comparison
-Authorize.net for Member Assembler
-Checkout options explained
We've got some good news for folks who are using Small Farm Central's e-commerce and those who are thinking about starting it up. We've just completed a wide variety of upgrades and new features to really expand your capabilities to sell your products and services through your web site. Log in to your site and see what you think!
Here are some of the highlights:
Live Shipping Calculation for UPS, FedEx, and USPS:
Your customers will now see a variety of shipping options, whichever ones you've chosen out of UPS, FedEx, and USPS services. When your customer checks out, the cart shows the live-calculated retail rates for those shippers.
You can now create coupons to pass to your customers that can be for a percentage discount, flat amount discount, or for free shipping. You have full control over what dates and times the coupon is valid for and for what minimum amount of order.
Live Credit Card Processing:
You now have another option for setting up your checkout - live credit card processing through Authorizenet. Whatever credit cards your merchant account is set up to receive, you can limit on your checkout page. Small Farm Central will be happy to help you set up a merchant account through Authorizenet and configure secure server encryption protocols for your web site. Payments made through Authorizenet or PayPal are also now recorded for your users in the Payments and Balances administration.
"Sold Out" Messages:
Many of you have mentioned that you would like to still show customers "what they missed" when your inventory runs out of product. Now, under your Departments administration, you can set your own message to display when items, or even just specific options below items, sell out.
Streamlined Item and Inventory Management:
Instead of having to go to multiple areas to create an item and also put that item into your stores' inventories, now you can do it all at once: either through the new item creation/edit page or the new inventory management page.
Even items with options can be updated all at once to save you time. It is easier than ever to get away from the computer and back out farming!
If you have any questions or concerns at all about how to get started with the new tools, please give us a call at 412.567.3864 or email us.
Does one of your customers have a remaining balance that you'd like to remind them about (and receive?!) It's easy to send payment requests through Member Assembler. Here's how:
1. Head to Member Assembler in your Control Panel and click on Accounting / Payment Request.
2. Click on Add New Payment Request in the yellow bar.
3. Walk through the questions.
- What Type of Payment Request is this? Is this a set amount? (do you need a customer to pay set amount such as $100?) or is this a percentage? (would you like your customer to pay a percentage of their remaining balance such as 50%). If you want them to pay all of their remaining balance, use 100%.
- User Must Have Type: Did you want this payment request to go out to everyone? (No Member Type Narrowing); or just to your ½ shares? The pull down menu will populate all the member types you offer.
- Payment Request Email Subject: Enter in the subject title for the email (For example: Remaining Balance info for your CSA
Now it's time to draft what the email will say. You'll see some crazy looking variables (like this: %%primary-member-name%%) Don't delete these. These will populate for each of your members.
For this example, your member's name will be populated between the %%)) There a number of different variables you can add:
%%primary-member-name%% - The name of the primary user in the membership.
%%payment-request-amount%% - The amount of the payment request.
%%current-balance%% - The balance of the membership before any payment has been made.
%%cc-payment-url%% - A unique link to your website for the member to pay online with Paypal or Member Assembler payments (Authorize.net). Remember to delete this variable if you are not using credit card processing.
%%member-id%% - The unique number that identifies a particular member.
When you're asking for a request for payment, you could enter this into the body of your email:
%%primary-member-name%%, We are requesting a payment of %%payment-request-amount%%. Your current balance is %%current-balance%%. Click the following link to pay online with your credit card: %%cc-payment-url%%
Your Farm Name here.
4. Click on Save and Select Users
This next screen, you'll get to see a preview of what your message is going to look like. If you see anything you'd like to change, click on "edit this payment request" in the yellow box. The final step is to select the members that should receive the payment request. This list should be populated from your "User Must Have Type:" section, from the previous screen. Simply click on the box to 'check' it, next to any of the names you'd like the email to go to.
Click on Send Email to send the email.
Still need help? We're happy to answer questions. Give us a call at 412.567.3864 or email us at firstname.lastname@example.com.
Here is the poster for the Greenhorns screening I just mentioned!SFC Filmfinal Web
I know not too many of you are in Pittsburgh, but we're putting together a screening of the new documentary about young farmers called 'The Greenhorns' on October 6th at the Melwood Screening Room. I've met Severine (the creator of the movie) at various farm conferences over the years -- I think everyone at these conferences meets Severine. She has the kind of personality that meets everyone.
"The Greenhorns documentary film, completed after almost 3 years in production, explores the lives of America's young farming community - its spirit, practices, and needs. It is the filmmaker's hope that by broadcasting the stories and voices of these young farmers, we can build the case for those considering a career in agriculture - to embolden them, to entice them, and to recruit them into farming." -- from the Greenhorns website.
The screening will include a happy hour featuring local food & brews and proceeds will benefit Grow Pittsburgh.
Here are details about our screening.
Here is the trailer:
For more information on the Greenhorns, visit http://www.thegreenhorns.net/. There are screenings going on around the country this fall, so maybe there is one in your area.
We hope you are having a productive high harvest season! It feels like things are turning just slightly towards Autumn, so it's time to start thinking about your 2012 CSA sign-up.
When possible, it is smart to capture your CSA customers commitment for 2012 while the taste of ripe tomatoes are still fresh in their mouths. It may be tempting to not think about CSA sign-up until February or March, but if you can get that deposit now you are in a much better position to retain more of your membership from year-to-year.
Member Assembler (our CSA membership management tool) has the concept of "seasons" so each time it is time to start a new sign-up period you will create a new "season" that holds all of the information for those shares. This archives older data (which you can access when needed), allows you to create new pickup locations, new prices, and allows returning members to sign up again.
For a full explanation on how to create seasons, go here: http://www.smallfarmcentral.com/memberassembler/help/creating-new-seasons
When do you start your sign-up process? If you wait until the Spring, what are the factors that stop you from starting sign-up a the end of summer?
You probably won't be surprised to learn that everyone at Small Farm Central gets a CSA share each week. Not only do we love to support our local farmers, but we all enjoy meeting the challenge of creating delicious meals that feature whatever seasonal treats might show up in our vegetable boxes.
Our new web developer, Mike Cuccaro, especially loves playing "Iron Chef" with his CSA box every week, where he tries to quickly use everything in his share and not much else in preparing his food for the week. He thinks it would be fun to stage an "Iron Chef" type of event where two or three chefs are given the same CSA box, with two hours to prepare a meal that features everything in it.
An event like this could be a great way to raise money for a local charity, while providing an innovative way for farmers to connect to their communities. Have you ever hosted any kind of food or cooking event on your farm? Tell us what you think!
The Small Farm Central team celebrated National Farmers Market Week (August 7-13) with a visit to one of Pittsburgh's largest and busiest places to buy locally grown food -- the East Liberty Farmers Market, managed by Pittsburgh Cityparks. You can meet some of the friendly local farmers by visiting the market's new Farming Faces site here:
We enjoyed having the opportunity to get to know some of our local farmers better, and use Farming Faces to extend western Pennsylvania's agricultural community beyond the marketplace.
Fine Family Apiary
Sand Hill Berries
Who Cooks for You Farm
We are excited to announce the latest tool in your farm marketing toolbelt; Farming Faces allows farmers markets (and other groups of farmers) to quickly create an online directory & map of their vendors and farmers.
Your site might look a little bit like this:
View this site in your browser: http://pittsburghpublic.farmingfaces.com
Forward this email on to your market manager!
While you are busy in the fields, with your markets, and supplying your CSA, we are working on some bigger projects including upgrading our email system, revamping the ecommerce functionality, and creating a whole new service called "Farming Faces".
Farming Faces serves groups of farmers such as farmers markets, cooperatives, and advocacy organizations enabling these organizations to develop a mini-site that maps their farmer members and keeps end-consumers up-to-date on what is happening on these farms through a news feed.
This is not a national directory of farms like LocalHarvest et al. This is a tool for individual markets and other groups of farmers to market and keep their customers informed.
Some key features:
In essence, we are creating a service that will keep customers highly engaged and informed without extra work for farmers. Also it's just plain fun to see a map of farmers in a particular market to understand foodshed. This is a powerful tool for markets and other farming groups!
Here is a rough screenshot of one of the test sites we are working on:
We've been working on this project for a while and plan to have a beta version out by early August. Let us know if you are a market or other group that wants a first shot at using the service!


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Fireside Chat with CEO of Phoenix New Media and 5 product DEMO's
Hanhai Investment Inc.
Saturday, February 16, 2013 from 12:30 PM to 3:00 PM (PST)
San Jose, CA
Event Details
Join us to meet the heavyweight speaker from Phoenix New Media. Learn how social network and new media change user life styles, and how entreprneuers can work with such new media platforms.
Event: Fireside Chat with CEO of 凤凰新媒体 Phoenix New Media
Time: 12:30pm - 3pm, 2/16/2013, Sat
Location: Hanhai zPark, 97 E Brokaw Rd, San Jose, CA, 95112
12:30pm - 1pm Registration and Mixer
1pm - 1:45pm: New Media - Meet Phoenix New Media and Phoenix TV
- Introduction by Victor Wang, President, Hanhai Investment
- Moderator - Laura He, The Entrepreneurs's Club, Forbes
- Speaker - Shuang Liu, CEO, Phoenix New Media
1:45pm - 2:30pm: New Media IT product DEMO
- HealthCrowd is a pioneer in mobile messaging for healthcare, having created a high-value premium business by combining the best of Mobile, SaaS, Crowdsourcing & Big Data.
- Moxtra is an app for anyone with a project or collection of things they'd like to keep in one place and share with others.
- Orbeus, an advanced cloud-based image analysis platform, helps computers see like human.
- help TV viewers retrieve any TV ad efficiently and effectively.
- On-site new media platform
Shuang Liu 刘 爽
CEO, Phoenix New Media; Executive Board Member and VP, Phoenix TV
Mr. Shuang Liu has been CEO of Phoenix New Media Ltd. since November 2011. Mr. Liu joined Phoenix Satellite Television Company Limited in 2001 and served as its Vice President since 2003. Mr. Liu served at Phoenix TV from 2001, where he has served in various managing positions, including Chief Director of Business Development and Vice President, in charge of investment, finance, investor relationships, legal affairs, public affairs and development of the finance channel. Before joining Phoenix TV, he worked at Simpson Thacher & Bartlett LLP, Milbank, Tweed, Hadley & McCloy LLP and Morrison & Foerster LLP from 1996 to 2001. Mr. Liu serves as Director of Fenghuang On-line (Beijing) Information Technology Co. Ltd. He has been a Director of Phoenix New Media Ltd. since November 2007. Mr. Liu received a JD degree from Duke University Law School, and bachelor's degree from University of International Business & Economic.
2001年至今历任凤凰卫视总裁特别助理、事业发展总监及副总裁,负责上市公司对外投资、融资、投资者关系、法律事务、公关及财经类栏目建设,主导参与中国移动入股凤凰卫视、凤凰新媒体的正式启动、 凤凰与北京电台的同步广播合资、及凤凰户外媒体等项目;
Laura He
The Entrepreneurs' Club, Forbes
Currently based in San Francisco, I cover billionaires and Chinese entrepreneurs for Forbes. A new graduate from Stanford University's journalism program, I've worked for China's largest and official news agency as business reporter and news anchor. I joined the news agency as Beijing-based reporter and later Hong Kong-based correspondent, covering economies, companies, markets and governments. Meantime, I anchored news at Hong Kong-based CNCTV and wrote columns for China's leading newspapers, such as International Herald Leader, Shanghai Securities Journal, Reference News, etc. While at Stanford University, I covered tech firms and entrepreneurs in the Silicon Valley for Peninsula Press, a hyperlocal news site powered by Stanford's Graduate Program in Journalism.
Follow me on Twitter @LauraLiuHe My email: email@example.com Tips and story ideas welcome.
When & Where
Hanhai Z-Park Investment
97 E Brokaw Rd
San Jose,
Saturday, February 16, 2013 from 12:30 PM to 3:00 PM (PST)
Add to my calendar
Hanhai Investment Inc.
Hanhai Investment is one of the leading proponents of high-tech startups in the Silicon Valley. In June 2012, the company founded Hanhai z-Park, an incubator hub for innovative startups. Hanhai z-Park is home to over 80 early stage to growth startups today, providing each with office infrastructure and support, turnkey operations services such as legal, accounting, marketing and mentoring for startup best practices.The incubator is situated in an 80,000 sq. ft. office building located in San Jose, California fully equipped to house and allow startups to immediately begin their operations.


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Share your comments
Hubbard, Amanda
Teen Fiction HUBBARD
Hubbard, Amanda
Teen Fiction HUBBARD
Summary: Lexi is cursed with a dark secret. Each day she goes to school like a normal teenager, and each night she must swim, or the pain will be unbearable. She is a siren - a deadly mermaid destined to lure men to their watery deaths. After a terrible tragedy, Lexi shut herself off from the world, vowing to protect the ones she loves. But she soon finds herself caught between a new boy at school who may have the power to melt her icy exterior, and a handsome water spirit who says he can break Lexi's curse if she gives up everything else. Lexi is faced with the hardest decision she's ever had to make: the life she's always longed for - or the love she can't live without?
Be the first to add a comment! Share your thoughts about this title. Would you recommend it? Why or why not?
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Inflationa persistent increase in the price levelthreatens peoples financial well-being by reducing the purchasing power of money, cutting into the future value of savings, and, when unexpected, lowering the real rate of return on investments.1 To protect their holdings, people take great pains to find investments whose returns exceed the inflation rate, such as stocks, bonds, and numerous other financial instruments. But when their returns are corrected for inflation, investors often see negative numbers.
Prominent economists such as Milton Friedman, James Tobin, and Stanley Fischer have long endorsed the idea of indexing government securities to changes in the price level.2 But even as Great Britain, Canada, Australia, and Sweden were doing just that, the U.S. Treasury remained reluctant to follow suituntil last year.
On May 16, 1996, the Treasury Department made financial history by announcing its intention to issue the first U.S. securities indexed to the rate of inflation. Dubbed Treasury Inflation-Protection Securities (TIPS), the indexed bonds were first auctioned on January 29, 1997. Now, U.S. investors and savers can purchase a financial instrument that provides a guaranteed hedge against the loss of purchasing power that accompanies increases in the Consumer Price Index (CPI).3
The Treasurys about-face on TIPS was motivated by its desire to broaden the choice of debt instruments available to the American public and to reduce the Treasurys borrowing costs.4 Although most professionals in the investment community and academia appear to back the Treasurys decision, their support stems almost entirely from the belief that TIPS will fill an important niche in American investors portfolios. Considerable disagreement exists about the Treasurys ability to reduce its borrowing costs.
This Economic Commentary reviews TIPS key structural features and discusses some of their advantages and disadvantages relative to other investment alternatives. It also looks at the potential benefits to the Treasury. When all of these elements are weighed, it is clear that TIPS are a much-needed financial innovation that will help investors protect themselves against the negative effects of inflation.
Return to Index
TIPS are structured similarly to the real-return bonds currently issued in Canada. The value of the principal is adjusted for inflation each day, using changes in the CPI as a benchmark.5 Every six months, a fixed-rate coupon is issued, with its payment based on the revised principal amount. The Treasury is currently issuing TIPS on a quarterly basis and uses a single-price auction to determine the fixed-rate coupon on each new issue.6
A TIPS principal grows at the same rate as inflation; thus, it maintains its real value in terms of the market basket of goods that make up the CPI. The fixed-rate coupon also rises in proportion to the increase in the principal. If deflation occurs, the principal is adjusted down in accordance with the falling CPI, as is the coupon payment. It is possible, then, that the coupon could pay on a principal amount less than par (the stated value of the security at issuance). The principal is returned to the investor upon maturity, fully adjusted for inflation (or deflation). However, if deflation reduces the principal below par, the investor will still receive par back from the Treasury.7
In contrast to TIPS, standard Treasury securities have a fixed principal amount and a fixed coupon payment. The investor receives a biannual coupon payment, which is based on the fixed principal. When a standard Treasury security matures, the investor receives par, or the face value of the bond. The Treasury intends to continue issuing TIPS in several maturities ranging from one to 30 years.8
Return to Index
It is generally agreed that investors and savers benefit from having more financial instruments at their disposal. Although returns on TIPS are expected to be lower than on traditional Treasury securities, many economists believe that there is a group of people who will gladly forgo a higher rate of return for the guarantee that their savings will keep pace with inflation.
Before TIPS became available, hedging against the risk of changes in the price level meant assuming other risks. Small investors found it costly to obtain the proper diversification to hedge against inflation once management and brokerage fees were added in, and even then there was no guarantee of full protection from its effects.
Residential property is sometimes considered an effective inflation hedge, but it is not tied directly to the CPI and is not affordable for some investors. Gold and other commodities are also imperfect hedges because they, too, do not precisely mirror the CPI.
Stocks are considered very poor protection against a rising price level, because higher prices tend to bring about lower nominal and real yields.9 Stock market fluctuations complicate matters because a market downturn can occur at the same time an investor needs his money. Rolling over short-term Treasury bills is generally believed to provide an adequate hedge against inflation, but this exposes the investor to fluctuations in the real interest rate.10 A person who invests in TIPS and holds them to maturity will not experience this market risk.
With no other financial instrument available to provide riskless, long-term protection against unexpected inflation, TIPS should be attractive to those investors and savers who are willing to accept lower returns for greater peace of mind. They will also provide costless inflation protection to small investors who might not otherwise be able to acquire it.
Return to Index
To understand why TIPS are important innovations for U.S. investors, it is helpful to examine the ex ante (expected) and ex post (actual) real rate of return on nominal Treasury securities over time. Figure 1 shows the real ex post rates of return on a 10-year nominal Treasury bond and a 10-year TIPS (assuming one had been available) that have earned a fixed rate of 3 percent since 1963. In other words, each data point represents the result of an investment that was made 10 years earlier and held until maturity.11
SOURCE: Authors' calculations.
Interestingly, investors who purchased a 10-year Treasury bond in the late 1960s lost a significant amount of purchasing power on what wereand still areconsidered "safe" fixed-income investments. Over the entire period, the real rate of return on nominal bonds ranged from 1.6 to 9.5 percent. Furthermore, nominal Treasury bonds yielded negative real returns for virtually the entire high-inflation decade of 1974 to 1984.
Because we cannot precisely measure the ex ante real rate of return demanded by investors, we cannot pinpoint how TIPS returns would have fared against nominal bonds. However, we can be certain that TIPS yields would not have been negative, as were the real yields on traditional bonds during certain high-inflation episodes over this period.
Clearly, no rational investor would accept a negative real rate of return, but that is exactly what happened to those who failed to anticipate the double-digit inflation of the late 1970s and early 1980s. The low-inflation environment of the 1960s led most long-term investors to believe that inflation would not reach the levels it eventually did, just as many investors today might feel that they are safe from any future surges.
Despite the Federal Reserves success at holding down inflation since the mid-1980s, there is no guarantee that the CPI will not creep back up to previous levels or higher. We can never be sure what shocks might hit the economy. Our current low-inflation environment looks very similar to that of the 1960s, but the period in between was marked by several shocks and policy moves that caused prices to soar. TIPS will protect investors if inflation begins to rise again.
Return to Index
The performance of TIPS compared to nominal Treasury securities depends on the actual rate of inflation relative to expectations. If actual inflation ends up being less than what the market anticipates, TIPS will underperform conventional Treasury securities. Conversely, if actual inflation exceeds expected inflation, TIPS will pay a higher rate of return than conventional Treasuries. The main difference hinges on the accuracy of the markets predictions about future inflation. If inflation forecasts prove to be correct, then in theory, TIPS performance will lag that of traditional Treasuries because the return on the latter includes a premium for inflation risk. However, because TIPS have liquidity problems (discussed in the next section), the difference in returns will depend on the relative sizes of the inflation risk and liquidity premiums.
The United States has experienced several episodes in which inflation exceeded expectations by a significant margin. Had an inflation-indexed security been available to investors during those times, its performance would have been superior to that of traditional Treasuries.
From April 1963 to August 1997, TIPS assumed annual real return would have been 3 percent, far above the traditional bonds 1.67 percent average.12 In fact, TIPS would have outperformed the traditional Treasury bond in every part of this period except for the bonds purchased in the late 1970s and early 1980s, when high expected inflation produced double-digit coupon rates for traditional Treasuries. When actual inflation finally began to fall in 1981, Treasuries continued to pay these high rates. Had TIPS been available, their principal growth would have diminished. Still, with a guaranteed return above the rate of inflation and the backing of the U.S. government, TIPS would have been a good investment choice over the past three decades.
Return to Index
What if an investor is saving for an item whose price is rising faster than the average price of the goods that make up the CPIs market basket? Government securities are often used to save for major expenses such as a childs college education or future medical bills. Increases in the prices of these two items have far outpaced the rate of general CPI inflation over the past 20 years. In the 1980s, college costs rose at an average annual rate of 9.5 percent and medical expenses advanced 8.3 percent, compared to an increase in the overall inflation rate of 5.6 percent. This trend has continued in the 1990s. If investors had been using TIPS to save for college or medical care over the past two decades, they would still be behind in real terms. TIPS are a true inflation hedge only if the investors objective is to use the matured funds to purchase a variety of goods as represented by the CPI.
Return to Index
Taxes, an important aspect of any investment, are particularly interesting in regard to TIPS. An investor who holds TIPS is taxed annually on the coupon payments and on the inflation adjustments to the principal. Although TIPS returns are not exposed to taxes any more than any other investment, investors do not receive the total payment that is being taxed. They receive the fixed percentage coupon but not the capital gain on the principal.
It is possible, then (based on the bond holders marginal tax rate), that the investors tax bill will exceed the coupon payment if the inflation rate is high enough (see figure 2). This poses a cash-flow problem for investors who might have to draw down another source of income to pay their taxes. Investors lacking alternative sources of cash may be forced to liquidate some of their holdings, which could expose them to market risk and possible losses. All of this is moot, however, if holdings are kept in a retirement account such as a 401(k) or IRA, which allows tax obligations to be deferred.
a. Based on TIPS' original $1,000 principal.
SOURCE: Authors' calculations.
Despite a successful initial Treasury auction for TIPS, liquidity is still a concern for many investors. Traditional long-term government securities have a total dollar value of $2.7 trillion outstanding; for TIPS, that figure is only about $16 billion. TIPS trading activity is also sporadic, amounting to as much as $100 million on some days and nothing on others. In contrast, traditional 10-year Treasury notes average about $4 billion a day in trading. TIPS volatility and low volume make short-term trading a particularly risky venture. For countries and large corporations that deal in U.S. government debt and need a great deal of liquidity to move in and out of their positions, TIPS may not provide the required liquidity at this time. Perhaps as the Treasury auctions new issues, thereby increasing the size of the market and filling out the term structure, the bonds will become more popular with traders.
Return to Index
When investors purchase a government bond, they take on several types of risk, including default, market, inflation, and liquidity risk.13 Nominal Treasury securities and TIPS carry the same egree of default and market risk. TIPS, however, entail no inflation risk and currently carry more liquidity risk than traditional Treasury securities.
Because investors expect to be compensated for assuming these risks, investments carry premiums that vary according to their risk characteristics. Relatively safe, short-term government securities traditionally come with a "risk-free" rate of return. But even the shortest-term government bonds carry a premium to compensate investors for the risk of inflation.
On a nominal bond, investors demand an inflation premium to compensate them for their expectations about future inflation. But they also demand a risk premium to offset the fact that they must make a guess about future inflationa guess that could be wrong.
This is where TIPS come into play. By guaranteeing a rate of return that exceeds inflation, the risk premium is eliminated and the Treasury can pay a lower interest rate on the securities. Also, if the publics inflation expectations are higher than what is actually realized, the Treasury can lower its borrowing costs by bearing the risk of inflation itself. Of course, if the reverse is true and actual inflation exceeds expectations, the Treasury will end up paying more to the market than it otherwise would have.
If liquidity continues to be a problem in the market for TIPS, investors may require a premium as compensation for bearing additional risk. This could offset any savings the Treasury might have realized by eliminating the inflation risk premium.
Return to Index
TIPS are important new debt instruments that enhance the financial menu already available to U.S. investors. They are the only guaranteed hedge against inflation and can provide cheap protection to investors who might not be able to afford other alternatives. TIPS are not without risk, however.
The market for them is not yet fully developed, and the term structure is incomplete. Those concerned with liquidity may continue to wait on the sidelines until TIPS start trading more consistently and in larger volumes.
Who is likely to invest in TIPS? Conservative investors who do not want to risk their money in the stock market but still want to beat inflation are good candidates. So are individuals who need income from their investments but still hope to preserve the value of their principal. Because of the tax implications, holding TIPS in a tax-deferred account seems a prudent way to use them. Pension and annuity funds are very likely to invest in TIPS.
On the other side of the aisle are those who desire a higher return from their investments and can stomach the risks of the stock market. A portfolio invested in S&P 500 stocks over the past 40 years would have outpaced TIPS by a significant margin. People who are saving for items whose price generally rises faster than the CPI may also want to look into other investments.
The most important point is that Americans now have a new investment vehicle at their disposal. Those who choose this instrument over others will essentially be exchanging the risk of consumer price movements for the risk of underperforming other investment options. TIPS provide a direct hedge against increasing prices. They may not perform well enough to attract some investors, but they offer a safe haven for those who want an investment that is guaranteed to keep pace with inflation.
Return to Index
2. See James Tobin, "An Essay on the Principles of Debt Management," in Macroeconomics, vol. 1 of Essays in Economics, Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1987, pp. 43947; Milton Friedman, "Monetary Correction," in Milton Friedman, ed., IEA Masters of Modern Economics Series, Cambridge, Mass.: Blackwell, 1974, pp. 2147; and Stanley Fischer, "Indexing and Inflation," in Journal of Monetary Economics, vol. 12, no. 4 (November 1983), pp. 51941.
Back to commentary
3. In 1985, the Coffee, Sugar, and Cocoa Exchange tried to trade futures contracts based on the CPI. It turned out that there was little interest in a market for inflation itself, and no securities to trade it against, so the effort was discontinued in 1991. Some speculate that TIPS will revive interest in CPI futures. The American public could, of course, purchase foreign-indexed securities, but that would expose them to exchange-rate risk, greater default risk, and the risk that foreign inflation may differ from U.S. price movements.
Back to commentary
4. See Federal Register, vol. 61, no. 189 (September 27, 1996).
Back to commentary
5. The CPI measure used is not seasonally adjusted and is for all urban consumers
(CPI-U). To calculate the principal adjustment, the index is lagged three months because of the time it takes to publish it and because of the Treasurys desire to interpolate a day-by-day linear trend in every month. For example, the CPI applicable to April 1 is the reading for January, which is released to the public in February. For the remaining days in April, the CPI is calculated by linear interpolation between the reading applicable to the first day of the month (Januarys CPI) and the reading applicable to the first day of the following month (Februarys CPI).
Back to commentary
6. According to the Bureau of Public Debt, each successful competitive bidder and each noncompetitive bidder are awarded securities at the price that is equivalent to the highest accepted rate or yield.
Back to commentary
7. Tax law suggests that a security returning par value upon maturity is considered a debt instrument. Since the principal amount of an indexed security can fall below par during deflationary periods, the Treasury may have instituted this guarantee to prevent a challenge to TIPS debt-instrument status.
Back to commentary
8. The January 1997 auction offered 10-year TIPS only, while the July 1997 auction included an $8 billion issue of five-year TIPS. Other unannounced maturities will be issued in auctions later in 1997, as reported in the Treasury Departments Uniform Offering Circular 31 CFR 356.
Back to commentary
9. See Alicia H. Munnell and Joseph B. Grolnic, "Should the U.S. Government Issue Index Bonds?" Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, New England Economic Review, September/October 1986, pp. 321.
Back to commentary
10. See John Y. Campbell and Robert J. Shiller, "A Scorecard for Indexed Government Debt," Yale University, Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 1125, May 1996.
Back to commentary
11. If TIPS had been available over this period, their yields would have been more volatile than figure 1 suggests. As peoples tastes for consumption and saving change, the demand for money (and thus the real rate of return) also changes. The real interest rate affects both nominal bonds and indexed securities in the same way. However, because of the indexed nature of TIPS payoff, their returns would have been much less volatile than those on nominal securities.
Back to commentary
12. Again, this assumes a 3 percent coupon rate, which is only an estimate. (TIPS from the first auction provided a 3.375 percent coupon rate.) Ignored is any shift in the real interest rate (the opportunity cost of holding money), which is affected by such factors as the supply of and the demand for money. A decrease in nominal interest rates could very well have meant a lower TIPS coupon rate. However, the real return on TIPS would not have been negative at any point, distinguishing its performance from that of the traditional Treasury.
Back to commentary
13. Credit risk is the uncertainty about the governments ability or willingness to make its coupon or principal payments. This is assumed to be almost nonexistent for the U.S. government. Market risk is the risk associated with shifts in bond prices. Liquidity risk is the risk that one will not be able to sell a security at its fair market value within a short period after purchase. Inflation risk is the uncertainty about investors returns in real terms.
Back to commentary
Return to Index
The views stated herein are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland or of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.


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GNOME Web To Abandon Google Search
Published on 29 August 2013 04:17 PM EDT
Written by
Michael Larabel
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The GNOME Web Browser will no longer be using Google as its default search engine but they have struck a deal to use DuckDuckGo as its new search engine.
As with most web-browsers, Google was the default search engine in GNOME's Web, but instead they have decided to go with DuckDuckGo for GNOME 3.10 and future releases. DuckDuckGo is a partially open-source search engine that utilizes data from Wikipedia and partnerships with other search engines like Yandex, Yahoo!, Bing, and Wolfram Alpha. DuckDuckGo has risen in popularity recently since they claim not to track their users and have a better privacy record than the tier-one search engines.
Along with better privacy, GNOME decided to go with DuckDuckGo over better cooperation with GNOME, it's a platform that "works", and more. While it will be the default in GNOME 3.10, users can still opt to switch to other search engines if they wish.
More details on this search engine change can be found via
this blog post
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Bridges Hall of Music
Mabel Shaw Bridges Hall of Music, this 600-seat gem of a concert hall better known as "Little Bridges," sits within the beautiful grounds of Pomona College on Fourth Street just east of College Avenue. Each year, from September through May, the College sponsors a broad spectrum of nearly 45 concerts encompassing classical, jazz, folk, Western and non-Western. The performances, which are traditionally free of charge, are open to the campus and surrounding communities.
For nearly 100 years audiences have welcomed many renowned artists to the campus. More recent performers have included pianist Boris Berman, soprano Lucy Shelton, the Tyva Kyzy Tuvan Throat Singers, the Alexander String Quartet, Bluegrass artists Richard Greene and Peter Feldmann, the Millennium Consort Singers led by conductor/organist Martin Neary, and the Lucerne Festival Strings. As the center of the Music Department's performing activities, ensembles including the College's Orchestra, Choir, Glee Club, Band, and Balinese Gamelan, regularly present concerts, and numerous performing faculty members and friends from across the globe offer recitals.
Bridges Hall of Music is also the home of the Hill Memorial Organ, a gift of John J. Hill '22 and Eugene H. Hill '26 in honor of their mother, Carrie Schnitker Hill. It was built by C. B. Fisk of Gloucester, Massachusetts, and dedicated in May 2002.
The Hall's history goes back to 1915, when architect Myron Hunt built it for the College with a gift from Mr. and Mrs. Appleton S. Bridges in memory of their daughter Mabel, a member of the class of 1908. Subsequent renovations were made in 1970 for acoustic and seismic updates, in 1972 to the south wings of the building through a gift of the Bertha Lebus Trust, and an additional major renovation to the hall was completed in 2001. In addition to performances, this stunning facility provides a remarkable space for other college events.
Bridges Hall of Music
150 E. 4th Street, Claremont, CA 91711
Pomona College Sponsored Concert Information: 909-607-2671
Free parking is available along College Ave. and on surrounding streets. Limited concert parking for those with mobility concerns is available on Fourth Street between College Ave. and College Way. Read more [pdf] .


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Adobe Systems, Inc.
Prepackaged Software CA, United States
| Nasdaq: ADBE
Similar to: ReadSoft AB, Micropole SA, Datawatch Corp.
Adobe Systems, Inc. is a software company, which provides digital marketing and digital media solutions. It offers a line of software and services used by creative professionals, marketers, knowledge workers, application developers, enterprises and consumers for creating, managing, delivering, measuring, optimizing and engaging with compelling content and experiences across multiple operating systems, devices and media. The company operates through three business segments: Digital Media, Digital Marketing and Print & Publishing. The Digital Media segment provides tools and solutions that enable individuals, small businesses and enterprises to create, publish, promote and monetize their digital content anywhere. Its customers include traditional content creators, web application developers and digital media professionals, as well as their management in marketing departments and agencies, companies and publishers. The Digital Marketing segment provides solutions and services for how digital advertising and marketing are created, managed, executed, measured and optimized. Its customers include digital marketers, advertisers, publishers, merchandisers, web analysts, chief marketing officers and chief revenue officers. The Print & Publishing segment addresses diverse publishing needs of technical and business publishing, and OEM printing businesses. Adobe was founded by Charles M. Geschke and John E. Warnock in December 1982 and is headquartered in San Jose, CA.


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Let me start by saying this: I loved Skyfall. I thought it was a brilliant film, and certainly one of the finest Bond films of all time. That was due in no small part to the phenomenal job Sam Mendes did directing it. So, that being said, I have absolutely no problem with Mendes as the director, but I don't think he'll be back for Bond 24.
Since John Glenn in the 80s, no director has done back-to-back Bond films. Martin Campbell has done two (Goldeneye, Casino Royale) but there were obviously quite a few films between those. I'm not saying it can't happen, just that more than likely Mendes won't be directing the next 007 film.
Mendes said that he was influenced by Christopher Nolan and The Dark Knight films when making Skyfall, and that influence wasn't a subtle one. At times during Skyfall I was momentarily confused as to whether I was watching a Bond film or a Batman one. If Mendes was so keen on making Bond like Nolan's Batman, then why not let Nolan take on a Bond film himself?
Well, I don't have any reasons why not, but I do have a list of reasons why he should, and why Nolan at the helm of a Bond film, specifically the next one, would lead to the most epic Bond film ever.
Continue reading on the next page to see why we think putting Nolan at the helm of a Bond film would be an excellent choice…Next
It'd Be Financially Brilliant
There are few people in the world who aren't either a Bond fan or a Nolan fan. Granted, the majority of those fans likely overlap into both camps, but who wouldn't rush to theaters to see those two powerhouses merge?
Traditionally, Bond films have avoided bringing in the highest profile, and therefore highest paid, directors. Right now Nolan is as high profile as them come, but that is part of why it would be so smart for the Bond franchise to bring the director on board. It isn't as if these movies have ever had a lack of fans or a lack of profits, so why not pay top dollar for a top notch director like Nolan? He is certainly going to make it worth your money and more in the dividends of people seeing the film just for his name alone. The producers have already said they think it would be a dream to bring on Nolan, so it isn't as if they're running from his high-profile status.
Skyfall has been a giant success at the box office, proving that the market is as hot for Bond films as ever. Nolan has had 2 films break the $1 billion mark, and Inception wasn't far off. Putting those two together would more than justify the top dollar that Nolan would likely command.
Click below to continue reading.Previous Next
He Wants 007
The rule for movies in the post-Dark Knight age should be if Christopher Nolan wants to do a film, you let him do it.
Nolan has voiced his fandom for the Bond franchise, and even told BBC when marketing Inception that the film was influenced by the Bond movies of his childhood.
"The Bond influence on the film was very intentional because, for me, growing up with the Bond films – they've always stood for grand-scale action…
In dealing with the human mind and dreams, my mind naturally gravitates towards the Bond films as that sort of expression of cinematic potential.
(Bond films have always) stood for the promise of being taken to some place bigger than you could have imagined."
That isn't the only interview where Nolan talked about 007 though, he told Empire that'd he'd be interested in doing a Bond film, but "It would have to be the right situation and the right time in their cycle of things."
Now that it's known it wouldn't take any elaborate wooing to get Nolan to begrudgingly agree to suffer through a Bond film, I see little reason why it shouldn't happen. Nolan wants to do it, so let him take on 007.
While Nolan has gotten most of his hype from the Dark Knight films and Inception, just as outstanding was the work on Memento, the film famed for being an out-of-order story, but in reality was much deeper than just that.
Memento deals with a man whose tattered soul is partially because of his lack of memory of the real events surrounding his wife's death, but also because of the way he handles it. He's able to completely remove any empathetic feelings he previously had for the humans who he murders in order to get his revenge, and he doesn't care who he hurts in order to achieve the justice he believes his wife deserves.
This mindset of disposable humans and the willingness to kill for revenge is essential to the character of Bond, and although his re-hardening due to Vesper's death wasn't brought up in Skyfall, it's an essential part of the Daniel Craig Bond, very much in the way Leonard Shelby has closed himself off because of his wife's death.
Plus, if Craig doesn't continue with Bond, Guy Pearce would be an excellent choice to fill the role.
Click below to continue reading.Previous Next
English Literature
Something many fans may not know is that Christopher Nolan is actually an English literature graduate of University College London. Nolan has said his studies have largely influenced his film-making.
"One thing I did get from it, while I was making films at the same time with the college film society, was that I started thinking about the narrative freedoms that authors had enjoyed for centuries and it seemed to me that filmmakers should enjoy those freedoms as well," said Nolan.
The director has shown the willingness to take narrative freedoms before, most notably in the aforementioned Memento, but more important to me than the influence his studies had on his past movies is the fact he was studying literature of the English speaking world while in London. That bodes very well to him have picked up a Fleming novel or two at some point.
Ian Fleming is a phenomenal writer. Any fan of the Bond films who hasn't read Fleming is desperately missing out. His novels are almost impossible to put down once started. The man once spread 18 holes of golf over 50 pages and made it absolutely thrilling (Goldfinger).
All directors are in the business of storytelling, just as authors are, but some definitely have more of an appreciation for the written word than others. Nolan seems to be in the camp that greatly values novels, as we saw with The Dark Knight Rises and the heavy influence Dickens' A Tale Of Two Cities had throughout the film. Using that love and appreciation of literature, Nolan would surely be able to translate his background into a masterful 007 tale.
Click below to continue reading.Previous Next
Scarecrow, Joker, and Bane
Essential to all the Bond films are the Bond villains, and who has proven to be more capable of directing villains than Nolan? Heath Ledger's Joker is already carved in stone as one of the most iconic villains of all time, and although much of the performance can be attributed to Ledger's total immersion into his role, he was still directed by Nolan and it was Nolan's vision that led to the mysterious and violent character we saw.
Barely less impressive was Bane. Again, Tom Hardy is a phenomenal actor, and surely could have thrived under any director, but it was Nolan who made Bane more than a costumed wrestler. He turned Bane into a visionary, trained by the best, who had as fervent a following as any villain we've ever seen. The devotion Bane's henchmen showed could translate so well to the devotion of those working for the next Bond villain.
But more fitting for Bond than either of the major villains Nolan has done would be his portrayal of Scarecrow. Cillian Murphy is someone I think is sinister enough to play a Bond villain. Bane and Joker were terrifying, Scarecrow was creepy, and that was what made him so fun to watch.
He is slightly psychotic, his excitement that is mixed with his fear when Batman is first in Arkham really chills me, yet he still has the intelligence of a doctor. He is a smart villain, and although nothing of a physical match for Batman, he is a worthy mental foe with a plan. When not wearing the mask he is completely composed.
One of my favorite scenes is the one where Rachel comes to see Falcone in the asylum, and Crane hisses, "As you can see, there's nothing convenient about his symptoms." The delivery of that line combined with when he takes her down to the basement, reveals where they are dumping the medicine into the water before gassing her just oozes the sinister slime we expect from a Bond villain.
I don't think it would be any stretch of the imagination to picture Nolan translating Cillian Murphy's performance into that of a phenomenal Bond villain, and that would make for an exceptional 24th Bond film.
Although it may still be a bit until any decisions regarding Bond 24 are finalized, the success of Skyfall has fans eager for 007′s next appearance, so it's likely rumors will be circulating more and more rapidly as time goes on.
A decision about the director will surely be one of the first made, and it would be in both the fans' and the franchise's best interest if Christopher Nolan was selected.
Am I right in saying Nolan is the best choice, or is there someone you'd rather see? Share your thoughts in the comments section below.Previous


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North Attleboro police confirmed on Friday morning that the Chrysler 300 they had been searching for in connection with the murder of Odin Lloyd has been located in Bristol, Conn. The car is believed to have been rented by Aaron Hernandez and has also been tied to 41-year-old Ernest Wallace, for whom police are searching.
Wallace was last seen driving the Chrysler, which you see above courtesy of the Boston Globe's Wesley Lowery, and is considered to be armed and dangerous. The car was seized early Friday morning.
On Thursday, police issued a wanted poster for Wallace, who is accused of being an accessory after the fact in the murder of Lloyd. Fox 25 Boston shared a photo of the poster and other photos of Wallace here:


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The roses are blooming gracefully and I couldn't resist but to get my camera and right click immediately. Before clicking, I see to it that I set the correct setting (manual) so I don't need to edit it for more precise outcome. Now that my belly is so huge, editing is no longer my cup-of-tea. I just make sure that the setting of the camera is correct, and I think I'll like the output of the shot I made. Knowing your own toy is really important to make thing easier for you when that "click" is done. The trial and error is just part of your job when it's still new but when you are used to it, it's just so easy to manipulate, but here comes the angle that really matter most. Huh, I don't have more patience anymore. So, I'm just contented with what I got. Just a sample to share for today.
About the AuthorI'm easy going type of person. I tend to be quiet at first, but when I get to know people and open up, they no longer think of me as being either shy or quiet. Married. A Filipina living in America. A mother of 3.
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Everyone told us not to start a business during a recession. Maybe we're just stubborn but we thought now more than ever it was time to do something good. After all, we believe in squeezing the yum out of life.
The 'Yum'? That's remembering to laugh, following our passions, enjoying the little things, chasing our dreams. Have you said yum today?
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Yumnuts Naturals - Slow Dry-Roasted Sea Salt Cashews - 5 oz. (142 g)
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A Nut Above The Rest
Let's face it, not all snacks are created equal. At Yumnuts, nuts are nature's perfect snack. Nuts provide protein, smart fats and essential minerals to help us perform at our best. So next time you are surfing through that sea of chips and over-engineered candy bars, listen to the voice in your head that says, "You are what you eat, my friend". Then grab Yumnuts, the snack without suspicious ingredients, high sodium or artificial sweeteners. Yumnuts starts with the highest quality cashews and dry-roast them slowly in small batches to create a lighter, crisper, better-for-you nut. Yumnuts are never roasted in oil and they don't smother their cashews in heavy batters. They're just real cashews with a delicate dose of mouth watering flavors.
The facts in a Nutshell...
Did you know that cashew nuts grow beneath a fruit called a cashew apple?
Most flavored nuts are roasted in oils or coated in suspicious ingredients and heavy batters. Yumnuts don't need artificial colors, flavors or sweeteners to make their nuts taste great. Nor do they try to change the taste of Yumnuts cashews by roasting them in peanut oil. That's just nuts.
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Map It
Map City Services
LouisvilleKY.gov Links
Wednesday July 19, 2006
With temperatures in the mid 90s today and a heat index at 100 degrees, Mayor Jerry Abramson issued a reminder of city resources available to residents for heat relief."We want people in Louisville to know that help is available if they are looking for ways to beat the heat this summer," Abramson said. "And I want to encourage people to look out for each other, especially the elderly and those with health problems. Make sure you check periodically on your elderly neighbor or relative."
The city has compiled the following list of resources that are available to Louisville residents.Emergency Air Conditioner / Fan ProgramIf a resident is homebound with a medical condition and does not have air conditioning, emergency help is available through the Louisville Metro Community Action Partnership. The city agency provides fans and window-unit aid conditioners on an emergency basis. To apply or ask questions about the program, call 574-1157 or MetroCall 311. So far this summer, CAP has distributed 41 air conditioners and 6 fans.
Senior Nutrition SitesThe city and partner agencies operate 24 Senior Nutrition Sites in Louisville where residents over the age of 60 may receive a nutritious lunch throughout the year. The lunches are generally served at 11:30 a.m. Residents may enjoy social activities and interaction with peers while having some relief from the heat. Residents should make reservations one day in advance. Lunches are free; donations are appreciated. For a complete list of locations and hours, please call 574-6325 or MetroCall 311.
The city is working closely with agencies like ElderServe and Meals on Wheels to monitor the health and safety of senior citizens. Click here to see a list of Human Services service locations in the Louisville Metro area (136kb PDF file), including the Urban Government Center, Senior Nutrition Centers, Adult Day Cares, Office of Youth Development and Neighborhood Places. Metro Parks PoolsResidents may cool off by visiting one of the city's 11 outdoor pools that are operated by Louisville Metro Parks. Weekday hours are generally 12 p.m. to 6 p.m. Admission is $1.50 for children and $2 for adults. Each pool is closed one day a week for maintenance. To find our more about hours of operation or to find a pool near you, call 897-9949 or MetroCall 311. The list is also available online by visiting www.louisvilleky.gov/metroparks/recreation/summerpools.htm. The Mary T. Meagher indoor facility just off of Frankfort Avenue on Reservoir Road in Crescent Hill is open throughout the year for recreational swimming.
Louisville Free Public LibraryResidents, especially those with children, may visit one of the city's 17 library branches. The branches are generally open from 9 a.m. to 9 p.m. during the week. Adults and children may choose to read a book or use a computer. Recreational opportunities for all ages are also offered at many locations. For a complete list of hours, activities and sites, call 574-1611 or MetroCall 311. The information is also available online by visiting www.lfpl.org.
Health Department Heat TipsThe Louisville Metro Health Department has the following recommendations to help residents weather the summer heat:
A variety of TARC routes are also available to residents who may prefer making a trip to their destination in an air-conditioned bus instead of walking.