text:
As I have stated in a number of different ways over the years,
people tend to discount just how important the actual matchup
is in any given football game. It has become common knowledge
that fantasy owners don't want their rushers facing Pittsburgh,
Baltimore or Minnesota in any given week, but I don't buy into
the whole "let the chips fall where they may" attitude
that happens after those three teams have been considered. I don't
proclaim to own a crystal ball (or even know how to use one),
so I won't tell anyone that I can guarantee I know who will be
the next surprise defensive unit will be or suggest I can rank
the 2009 total defense leaders in order, but spending a little
bit of time in the lab trying to figure out how player/coach additions
or subtractions affect a defense is well worth the time.
Suppose I could tell you why facing Tampa Bay isn't such a bad
thing for a fantasy owner QB or WRs in 2009 (a pretty gutsy call
in recent years) or why the Eagles may not be quite the defense
everyone thinks they will be. Suppose I could provide sound rationale
for why each could happen. Any fantasy owner who wants to win
their league title would want to know why and if it made sense
to them, plan accordingly.
Naturally, when the mention of using the schedule as a means
to rate fantasy talent for the upcoming season is mentioned, the
eyeroll is soon to follow. Critics would be quick to point out
that no one knows what injuries will occur or, worse yet, what
teams will be good or not. But that isn't the point here. The
idea with my PSA - at this stage of the game - is to judge what
defenses SHOULD be good and which ones are deep enough
to withstand injuries. Potentially great teams are built on draft
day, but fantasy titles aren't. The idea of draft day and the
end-game to my PSA is to leave an owner in a good enough position
to handle whatever adversity comes his/her way during the season
- and it will come - so when the playoffs roll around, it is your
team that is loaded with the "cupcake" games. Wouldn't
we all agree a game against the Chiefs in the fantasy playoffs
this season sounds a lot more appealing than one against the Giants
or Jets?
Now that I can comfortably step down from my soapbox, the purpose
of this week's article is to give some shape or form to just how
good or bad I believe a defense will be this season. Granted,
I don't anticipate a standing ovation for a piece about defensive
coordinators and their philosophies, but understanding how a defense
thinks can open the door for owners to surmise what their players
can do against it in a given week. Do that exercise 15 times (most
fantasy playoffs stop after the 15th regular season game) and
you have yourself a nice little projection on how a player may
perform. Because consistency is as important as quality in fantasy
football, I feel the only true way to measure a player's preseason
value is to access how I feel he will do each week in the regular
A Quick Tutorial: YPC refers
to an opponent's yards per carry while YPA stands for an
opponent's yards per pass attempt. As
a point of reference, the league average for YPC in 2008 was 4.2,
while for YPA, it was 6.9. I have found these statistics
to be useful in determining the effectiveness of a defense, especially
when it comes to projecting how players will perform against that
defense. It's no big secret that a team can be good at stopping
the run or pass, but for one reason or another, is still not proficient
at stopping an opponent from scoring via the run or pass, be it
due to small CBs getting exposed on fade patterns or a defense
that is undersized all the way around or for any other number
of reasons.
I do my best to account for these "oversights" as
I go through projecting a player's game-by-game stats but,
believe me, I understand this is a purely subjective endeavor.
With all that behind us now, let's dive into the defenses.
Division-by-division projections are on deck over the next few
weeks, so get psyched people!
Buffalo Bills
Projected 2009 YPC: 4.5
Projected 2009 YPA: 7.4
Explanation: The biggest key
for this defense entering 2009 is the healthy return of DE Aaron
Schobel and, to a lesser extent, CB Ashton
Youboty. Without a healthy Schobel, trying to get pressure
in DC Perry Fewell's Cover 2 defense became a chore in 2008. As
a result, the team managed just 24 sacks, tied for the fourth-worst
mark in the league. Very little help arrived via free agency,
so the talent upgrades to the pass rush in 2009 will have to come
from whatever DE Aaron
Maybin and CB/S Jairus
Byrd can give the Bills. And unlike 2008, the Bills won't
have an easy start to the season, facing high-powered passing
offenses like New England, New Orleans and Houston all before
their Week 9 bye. The run defense has improved incrementally in
each of Fewell's first three seasons, but the only way this defense
figures to improve on last season's 22nd place finish vs. the
run is by becoming more familiar with the system. Fewell has done
a good job at getting the most out of his guys since his arrival,
but the schedule for 2009 does not lend itself for much defensive
success. It's probably a good thing the offense will be considerably
better, because Buffalo's defense is not all that deep or physical
and could get exposed by teams such as the Dolphins, Jets, Panthers,
Falcons, Jags and Titans � all of which are teams that will run
the ball relentlessly on the Bills if they cannot jump out to
an early lead.
Miami Dolphins
Projected 2009 YPC: 4.3
Projected 2009 YPA: 7.2
Explanation: One of the many
reasons Bill Parcells gets so much credit for being a good personnel
person is because he understands the easiest way to make the playoffs
is by winning your division first. The Dolphins finished in the
middle of the pack in terms of YPA allowed in 2008, but with New
England possessing a pair of Pro Bowl WRs (and adding Joey Galloway)
and Buffalo signing Terrell Owens to go along with Lee Evans,
it became paramount that the team add a pair of physical CBs who
could match up. So Miami used the first two rounds to select two
of the draft's biggest, most athletic CBs in Vontae
Davis and Sean
Smith. Their additions were very important for a defense that
really performed well in 2008 but doesn't have the privilege this
season of rampaging through the AFC and NFC West as it did last
season. As a result, DC Paul Pasqualoni, who guided his unit to
eighth-place finishes in sacks (40) and turnovers (30) may lead
one of the handful of defenses that may actually perform better
in reality than they do statistically in 2009. The first three
weeks will tell us a lot about this defense as Miami tries to
bottle up Atlanta, Indianapolis and San Diego. So while the return
of Jason
Taylor receives the most attention, this defense will only
go about as far as the new defensive backs will let them. Because
the team did little to change a defensive front after an average
showing against a weak schedule, a small statistical decline against
the run is possible considering the opponents they will be facing
this time around.
New England Patriots
Projected 2009 YPC: 3.9
Projected 2009 YPA: 6.2
Explanation: Perhaps no team in recent memory sets an offseason
goal of improving a position and then goes out and makes that
position ridiculously deep. In 2007, Randy Moss and Wes Welker
turned the receiver corps from a bunch of no-namers into one of
the deepest units in the league. This year, the goal was CBs and
once again, mission accomplished. Leigh Bodden was not a good
fit in Detroit's "Tampa 2" and had very little talent
in front of him, but he is only a year removed from being traded
along with a third-round pick for Pro Bowl DT Shaun Rogers. Expect
Bodden � who was considered an up-and-comer in Cleveland
before the trade - to stick around for a while in Foxborough and
play at a Pro Bowl level. The team also nabbed former Redskin
Shawn Springs to compete with promising CB Jonathan Wilhite. Finally,
New England selected the most technically-sound CB in the draft
in Darius Butler. Along with a formidable front seven, this pass
defense has the potential to be one of the Patriots' best since
HC Bill Belichick joined the team in 2000. The loss of OLB Mike
Vrabel hurts the front seven of this defense in more ways than
one and Tedy Bruschi is nearing the end of the line, but New England
has enough versatile depth that a major dropoff is unlikely to
happen. Unlike many 3-4 teams, the Pats have serviceable depth
behind their superb front line, meaning Jerod Mayo and Adalius
Thomas will have little problem stuffing the run. If there is
a weakness on this team, it is at OLB and in the leadership department.
Even though Vrabel's sack totals were inconsistent, his presence
was important to the defense as was S Rodney Harrison's. Both
are gone now, so while the potential for others to step up is
very high, a team still has to go through the process of finding
the new "voice" in the huddle. Bruschi is no longer
a three-down player, so Thomas or Mayo may have to take on that
New York Jets
Projected 2009 YPC: 3.8
Projected 2009 YPA: 6.5
Explanation: New HC Rex Ryan's first hire was DC Mike Pettine
- a man he has a long history with - so it is safe to say that
while Ryan will get a lot of the credit or the blame for this
defense, Pettine will have a considerable say in the direction
of this unit. Both coaches will benefit from the fact that the
Jets brought in three former Ravens defenders - one on each level
of the defense - something that should help the Jets install all
the different pressure packages that Ryan made famous in Baltimore.
On the field, things will begin and end with the effectiveness
of NT Kris Jenkins, who thrived in his first season with the Jets
but has a history of not putting it together year after year from
his time in Carolina. At his best, he commands a constant double
team that will allow ILBs David Harris and free agent pickup (and
former Raven) Bart Scott to put up some huge numbers. Jenkins
will be needed even more early on after OLB Calvin Pace was suspended
for the first four games of the season, leaving last year's first
rounder - Vernon Gholston - to shut up the number of people who
have been more than willing to call him a "bust" after
just one season in the league.
In the secondary, CB Darrelle Revis has already established himself
as one of the best in the league and, along with the trade for
Lito Sheppard, New York should have the corners necessary to complement
the pressure that Pace (when he returns), Gholston and Bryan Thomas
will provide on the outside. Finally, ex-Raven S Jim Leonhard
joins Kerry Rhodes to round out this very talented defense that
should be equally good against the run and the pass. However,
the schedule does New York no favors with Houston, New England
and New Orleans all meeting the Jets in the first month of the
season and New England, Atlanta and Indianapolis among a number
of potentially good offenses awaiting in the second half. Given
the complexity of the defense, a slow start is not out of the
question but, by the end of the year, many people in the Northeast
could be asking "Who has the best defense is New York?�
Baltimore Ravens
Projected 2009 YPC: 3.8
Projected 2009 YPA: 6.2
Explanation: After graduating its last three defensive coordinators
to head coaching jobs elsewhere (Marvin Lewis, Mike Nolan, Rex
Ryan), Baltimore has a coach now that is a safe bet not to be
"graduating" with them. DC Greg Mattison, who will turn
60 during the season, is entering his 38th season of coaching
but only his second in the NFL after running defenses at the college
level (Florida, Notre Dame and Michigan among others) for most
of his career. Ryan's blueprint has been left behind, but the
defense took some massive hits in the offseason. While CB Chris
McAlister�s departure was expected, the team had to cringe
after watching LB Bart Scott and S Jim Leonhard leave with Ryan
to New York. Baltimore did avoid a potential season-long headache
by extending the contract of DE/OLB Terrell Suggs, so the pass
rush should be as good as ever. Under GM Ozzie Newsome, the Ravens
have done a fine job of restocking the shelves over the years,
but this year changeover has left the team more exposed than usual
as an injury to the front three or either one of the CBs could
be potentially devastating. Additionally, Baltimore needs Domonique
Foxworth to earn every bit of the $16 M guaranteed he was handed
this offseason. While Foxworth showed himself well in Atlanta
last season, it wasn�t too long ago that he was just a role
player on a poor defense in Denver, which was happy to get any
compensation for him after three lackluster seasons there. The
run defense may fall off a bit from its incredibly high standards
as Mattison gets his feet wet, but expect the pass defense to
show more vulnerability than it has in the past - even with Ed
Reed doing what he has done for years. Certainly, the Ravens�
back end was losing effectiveness with age, but no matter how
Baltimore wants to look at, there will be falloff from a defense
that goes from Ryan-McAlister-Samari Rolle to Mattison-Foxworth-Fabian
Washington. The Ravens still have plenty left to suffocate an
average offense, but expect the Chargers, Patriots and Packers
to have a bit more success than most opponents usually do this
Cincinnati Bengals
Projected 2009 YPC: 4.0
Projected 2009 YPA: 6.3
Explanation: Mark Twain once
said "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics."
I'm not sure if it was a lie or a damn lie, but there was not
a whole lot of honesty behind the Bengals' 3.9 YPC last season.
Because Cincinnati sported the league's worst offense a season
ago, opponents could sometimes go into clock-killing mode midway
through the third quarter, thus sabotaging their own potential
for a big run or two. But before owners decide to put the Bengals'
defense among the league's worst once again, bear in mind that
DC Mike Zimmer guided his injured troops to a 12th place finish
in total defense, this against an unforgiving schedule in 2008.
And it only figures to get better as Cincy used the offseason
as well as any team to upgrade its talent on both sides of the
ball, particularly on defense. S Roy
Williams is the first enforcer the team has enjoyed at safety
since David Fulcher (and he will be reunited with the DC under
which he enjoyed his best seasons in Dallas), second-round selection
LB Rey
Maualuga gives the defense an identity for the first time
in ages and DL additions Tank and Michael
Johnson figure to blend in with Antwan
Odom and Robert
Geathers to provide a much-needed boost to the pass rush that
generated a meager 17 sacks a season ago. In short, the talent
and depth on this defense is the best it has been since the early
The schedule provides NFC North and AFC West opponents in 2009,
a far cry from the NFC East and AFC South offenses it faced a
season ago. Expect a few speed bumps along the way, but Cincinnati
could honestly crack the top 10 in total defense this season if
it plays up to its potential and takes advantage of its schedule.
Since the offense figures to be healthier than it was at any point
last season, the defensive averages could actually look worse
but the unit as a whole should be significantly better. While
the Bengals aren�t likely to be an elite defense quite yet,
they also don�t figure to be a team that fantasy owners
want to see on the schedule this season either.
Cleveland Browns
Explanation: The good news
is that the Browns are slowly assembling the talent they need
to play the 3-4 defense at a respectable level. The bad news is
they aren't there yet. Only NT Shaun Rogers can be considered
an elite talent, although DE Corey
Williams and LB Kamerion
Wimbley possess the ability to share some of that load. But
only Rogers showed his considerable wares last season, which contributed
to a number of coaches losing their jobs. Enter ex-Raider DC Rob
Ryan, who will get to work with a much different cast of characters
than a season ago, including four players who played under new
HC Eric Mangini in New York. The former Jets figure to slightly
improve a defense that didn't stop much of anything in 2008. By
all accounts, the schedule gets easier on Cleveland this season,
as it faces the AFC East and NFC North as opposed to the AFC South
and NFC East - that alone should make the Browns' defense look
a bit more respectable in the statistical department. In addition
to finding another difference maker up front - the team thinks
it has found someone in backup NT Ahtyba Rubin - someone needs
to emerge opposite Wimbley at OLB. The Browns think that somebody
could be conversion rookie LB David
Veikune, who has the pass-rush skills necessary to make opponents
pay. The Browns also need bounceback seasons from CB Eric
Wright and Brandon
McDonald, two players who played much better in 2007 than
2008. In the event they don�t rebound, Cleveland added some proven
depth in ex-Cardinal Rod Hood and former Raven Corey
Ivy. Since their division figures to be one of the tougher
in the NFL this year, the Browns' statistical improvement is likely
to be minimal. But the overall schedule should allow Cleveland
to build some confidence under Ryan and Mangini heading into 2010.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Projected 2009 YPC: 3.4
Projected 2009 YPA: 5.6
Explanation: Year after year, in the NFL's ever-changing climate,
the Steelers stop the run and sometimes even feature two OLBs
who can post 10+ sacks. Although last year marked the first time
that two defenders went over the 10-sack mark since DC Dick LeBeau
returned to coach the defense prior to the 2004 season, Pittsburgh
has finished no worse than third against the run in those five
seasons. To take that one step further, LeBeau's defenses �
since 2004 - have finished fourth or better in total defense (including
three first-place finishes) and third or better in points allowed
(including three more first-place finishes). Because very little
has changed with their defense from last season, there's no reason
to believe the results will be much different. Also consider the
Steelers replace the NFC East and AFC South teams from their 2008
schedule with the NFC North and AFC West. In short, as good as
they were statistically last season, they could be even better
in 2009.
But the outlook isn't 100% positive � the defense is getting
a bit older. While the problem shouldn't manifest itself this
season, Pittsburgh may find itself in the rare position of needing
to play a rookie more than it typically does. The Steelers are
counting on first-round pick Ziggy Hood to step in and provide
some relief for starting defensive ends Brett Keisel and Aaron
Smith, who are both in their 30s. ILB James Farrior will turn
35 at the end of the season and since the team possesses little
depth at ILB, it can't afford a dropoff or long-term injury at
that position either. Perhaps it is nitpicking, but the league
is littered with examples of teams that were dominant one year
and too old the next. More than likely, though, age will be more
of an issue for Pittsburgh in 2010 than 2009.
Houston Texans
Explanation: Former DL coach Frank Bush gets his first opportunity
to run an NFL defense and, by all indications, he will be aggressive
in doing so. A defensive line already operating with three former
first-rounders added two more formidable pass-rushing talents
in the offseason with free agent DE Antonio Smith and second-round
DE Connor Barwin. Paired with DE Mario Williams, the Texans stand
a great chance at improving on their 25 sacks from a season ago
and fielding a legitimate pass rush for the first time in franchise
history. However, that pass rush will only be noticed if the defensive
backs hold up, which is a definite question mark for this team.
The safety play in Houston has rarely been stellar in the team's
existence and remains its weakest link. The Texans' pass defense,
though, will get opportunities to shine as they meet teams that
figure to struggle in the passing game like St. Louis, Oakland
and San Francisco. As for the run defense, Houston will have to
hope the infusion of talent and depth in its front seven will
offset the number of teams on its schedule that will be successful
running the football. The continued growth of DT Amobi Okoye along
with the development of rookie LB Brian Cushing - two players
who will be instrumental in helping the defense get off the field
on third down - will be key in determining just how much of a
jump Houston can make from 23rd ranked run defense from a season
Indianapolis Colts
Projected 2009 YPC: 4.1
Projected 2009 YPA: 6.1
Explanation: No established team in recent memory has undergone
so much change at the top. The head coach along with all three
coordinators (including special teams) are either no longer with
the team or in a "consultant" role. One of the those
many changes - from Ron Meeks to new DC Larry Coyer - is helping
the defense make a much less-publicized transition than the offense
is going through. One thing that was clear from the draft, however,
is the Colts no longer intend on having such a smallish interior.
In selecting USC�s Fili Moala and Michigan�s Terrance
Taylor, Indy gained a lot more young strength and size at DT that
it had in years. Coyer figures to keep around most of the "Tampa
2" principles that Tony Dungy and Meeks used for years, so
the transition should be smoother than it is for most coordinators
joining a new team. It should also mean that S Bob Sanders will
continue to be the defense's most valuable all-around player.
As long as he remains healthy - always a big question mark - and
CB Marlin Jackson recovers fully from the knee surgery he underwent
during 2008, the Colts stand a great chance of improving their
run defense numbers. However, their schedule will test them in
that regard early and often - each team in their division will
have a formidable running game as will San Francisco, Baltimore,
Miami and the New York Jets. Fortunately, Indy's version of the
"Tampa 2" has a long history of stifling opponents'
passing games. So, once again, if some of the most important components
(Sanders, Jackson, Dwight Freeney among others) can stay healthy,
the Colts should have one of the more effective defenses in the
Jacksonville Jaguars
Projected 2009 YPC: 4.0
Projected 2009 YPA: 7.2
Explanation: Nothing against new DC Mel Tucker, but it is hard
to believe the Jaguars were so taken by the Browns' defense that
they decided to hand him the keys to their defense. So it probably
goes without saying that HC Jack Del Rio will probably be the
man responsible for this unit's fortunes in 2009 after a season
in which Jacksonville's defense looked anything but formidable.
That could have happened due to a falling out between Del Rio
and former DC Gregg Williams (now in New Orleans) because after
having watched Williams-coached defenses for a number of years,
the Jags showed very little of the blitzing style that has made
Williams a highly-coveted coordinator for many years. Very little
immediate defensive help came to the team in the offseason, so
Tucker and Del Rio will need to hope that improvement will come
from better chemistry and knowledge of the system.
The one addition the defense did make that should make a difference
is ex-Eagle S Sean
Considine, who flashed in Philly and has the coaches in Jacksonville
raving so far. Two other players that could make a splash at needed
spots on the defense are two third-round picks, DT Terrance
Knighton and CB Derek
Cox. A solid camp by Knighton would give the Jags a sizable
DT duo (along with John Henderson) the team has lacked since trading
away Marcus
Stroud. Cox could give starting CB Brian
Williams a run for his money and perhaps stop the revolving
door that has been a trouble spot opposite standout Rashean
Mathis for years. Playing four games vs. the NFC West will
help their overall numbers, but this defense doesn't appear to
be considerably better than it was in 2008. Del Rio's teams have
yet to finish outside the top of the half of the league vs. the
run, so don't expect much of a falloff in that department. Just
out of sheer luck, the additions of Considine and Cox figure to
help their dreadful pass defense. It won't be enough to return
to this defense to the ranks of the elite, but they won't be near
as bad as they were a season ago either.
Tennessee Titans
Projected 2009 YPC: 4.1
Projected 2009 YPA: 6.5
Explanation: New DC Chuck Cecil takes over for the Lions' new
HC Jim Schwartz, assuming control of the entire defense after
serving as the defensive backs coach each of the past two seasons.
Under Cecil's leadership, Michael Griffin and Cortland Finnegan
have each taken significant strides. First-time coordinators are
always a bit unpredictable in terms of how aggressive/conservative
they will be with their schemes and how their players will react
to them. As a point of reference, Schwartz's first Titans' defense
in 2001 placed 25th in both points and yards allowed. The loss
of DT Albert Haynesworth will hurt in both the run and pass game,
but Tennessee likes the depth it has in the front four. Cecil
should have very few concerns about the back seven of his defense,
however, as Keith Bullock headlines a strong trio of LBs while
Griffin and Finnegan both played at a Pro Bowl level last season,
even if only the latter was selected. It's safe to assume Cecil
will have some growing pains and Haynesworth's departure figures
to knock this defense from the elite, but there is enough talent
remaining to ensure the team doesn't bottom out like it did in
Schwartz's first season, one with far less talent than the defense
Cecil will be working with in 2009.
Denver Broncos
Projected 2009 YPC: 5.0
Projected 2009 YPA: 6.8
Explanation: New DC Mike Nolan was starting to put together some
talent on defense before getting fired in San Francisco, now,
he may as well be starting from scratch again in 2009. Free agent
S Brian Dawkins was a major coup - even at his advanced age -
for a defense that will need his fire and leadership. Unfortunately,
the Broncos need more than one offseason and a change at DC to
cure their ills on defense. There are some pieces in place - especially
at LB - but the defensive line is woefully short on talent and
there really is not a single lineman currently on the roster that
is a good fit for the 3-4 defense Nolan will be installing. So,
even though Dawkins' in-the-box skills are still very good, Denver
will be one of the worst run defenses once again this season and
it only gets worse when one considers this defense will have to
play against the physical running teams of the NFC East and AFC
North. Therefore, even if the pass defense benefits from the talent
it acquired in the draft as it should (such as Alphonso Smith),
it may not matter if the offense can't consistently jump ahead
of its opponents each week. In short, there is very little to
like for a defense that lacks the talent and experience in this
new defense. As a result, owners of Joseph Addai, Donald Brown,
Darren McFadden and either Brian Westbrook or LeSean McCoy should
expect stellar numbers from their backs during the fantasy playoffs
(Weeks 14-16).
Kansas City Chiefs
Projected 2009 YPC: 4.9
Projected 2009 YPA: 7.5
Explanation: The Chiefs finally
committed to the overhaul it needed at the top. The trio of Scott
Pioli, Todd Haley and Clancy Pendergast replaced the threesome
of Carl Peterson, Herm Edwards and Gunther Cunningham as GM, coach
and DC, respectively. Although Peterson had the respect of many
across the league, his drafts (outside of 2008) were typically
lacking, especially after the first round. Edwards and Cunningham's
philosophies didn�t seem to jive all that well, so in short, the
Chiefs upgraded everywhere off the field. For the purposes of
this piece, however, we'll focus on Pendergast, who quite often
did more with less in Arizona than just about any other defensive
coordinator. He'll need to do it again with this group, as only
first-round DE Tyson
Jackson is a suitable fit for the 3-4 defense of defensive
linemen on the current roster. The linebackers have talent, but
only an aging Mike
Vrabel and Derrick
Johnson are locks to be with the club past 2009 in their current
position. The secondary also has some pieces to work with - but
like most of the players in front of them - are not the best fits
for the new 3-4 scheme. Regardless, Pendergast will make this
defense look decent at times. But make no mistake about it, the
Chiefs� 2009 schedule would be brutal for any team against the
run, let alone one trying to figure things out in a scheme it
doesn't have the personnel for quite yet. The pass defense may
actually appear better statistically at the end of the season
than it will be in reality, but it will take a masterful coaching
job by Pendergast to improve on last year's pathetic numbers against
the run. Kansas City is finally headed in the right direction,
but as with most overhaul jobs, this may take another year or
two. In the meantime, fantasy owners should rejoice when their
player is scheduled to go against KC this season.
Oakland Raiders
Projected 2009 YPC: 4.9
Projected 2009 YPA: 6.9
Explanation: One of the things
about the NFL is that teams are never that far away from being
much better...or much worse. Along with that line of thinking,
Oakland has part of a good defense in place. CB Nnamdi
Asomugha is considered the best in the league at his position
and DE Derrick
Burgess isn't too far removed from back-to-back double digit
sack seasons. Former Cowboy Greg
Ellis was a nice upgrade opposite Burgess even if his best
years are likely behind him. MLB Kirk
Morrison could join that group, but until he has some better
protection up front, we may never know for sure. CB Chris
Johnson took over for DeAngelo
Hall midway through last season and the team has high hopes
for him, although he will get picked on as long as Asomugha is
still in the lineup. So it isn't as if new DC John Marshall doesn't
have anything to work with in 2009. But in a league where offenses
can pick a defense apart if it has one or two weak links, the
Raiders have five or six.
One player who could cure a lot of Oakland�s ills on defense
(and allow Al Davis to get the last laugh) would be DT Tommy Kelly,
that is, if he busts out and earns the $50+ million contract he
signed in February 2008. Considering he is 28 and in his second
season after ACL surgery, now is the time for him to start earning
his contract. His presence would not only allow Morrison to shine,
but would give Ellis and Burgess the opportunity to work one-on-one
on the outside, making Asomugha and Johnson all the more effective.
But let�s face it, that is most likely the best case scenario.
Because of poor safety play, Oakland will struggle against the
deep ball and because it lacks elite talent at DT, the Raiders
will also have a hard time against the top running games of the
league. Considering the fact they face the NFC East and AFC North,
the Raiders don't figure to improve much from their 31st place
finish against the run in 2008, although Marshall has been known
to get the most out of his defense, so although it is unlikely,
maybe this defense can surprise a few folks this season.
San Diego Chargers
Projected 2009 YPC: 4.1
Projected 2009 YPA: 6.6
Explanation: For a position coach, being asked to accept a promotion
to an interim coach or a coordinator has to qualify as a dream
and a nightmare coming true. Taking over a greater role means
the front office believes in a coach, but some disaster likely
had to happen for said coach to be asked to fill the role in the
first place. Such was the case for DC Ron Rivera after Ted Cottrell
was ousted after 1 1/2 seasons, mostly for his inability to get
one of the league's most talented defenses - without OLB Shawne
Merriman - to perform at the level it had achieved in Cottrell's
first season. While San Diego fell well short of the laurels it
set in 2007, Rivera was able to coax enough out of the defense
that it held opponents to 24 points or less in the first nine
games he was in charge (the Chargers had given up more than 24
points four times before that). Being able to generate that kind
of a turnaround midseason bodes well for a defense that will not
only be getting Merriman back, but invested a first-round pick
in OLB Larry English to further bolster a pass rush that generated
42 sacks in 2007. ILB Kevin Burnett's addition from Dallas further
solidifies the LB corps and gives the Bolts a foursome that will
be difficult to gameplan for this season.
San Diego did take a small hit (especially vs. the run) up front
by losing DE Igor Olshansky to Dallas, but longtime reserve Ryon
Bingham should be well-prepared to hold the fort down beside NT
Jamal Williams, the one player besides Merriman this defense can
ill-afford to lose. As long as that duo stays injury-free, expect
San Diego to reclaim its place as one of the league's elite defenses.
With the pass rush back to full strength, CBs Antonio Cromartie
and Quentin Jammer will look better than they did last year -
significant because unlike most defenses, San Diego's defense
is not one that can be accurately measured by averages such as
YPC and YPA, but more by turnovers and sacks. The schedule-maker
did the Chargers no favors as they meet the NFC East and AFC North
this season, however, six games against Denver, Kansas City and
Oakland should help balance things out.
Dallas Cowboys
Projected 2009 YPC: 4.0
Projected 2009 YPA: 6.1
Explanation: In what figures
to be a make-or-break season for HC Wade Phillips, he will either
sink or swim on his own abilities as former DC Brian Stewart was
made the scapegoat for last season�s struggles and is now conveniently
a special assistant in Philadelphia. However, the transition from
Stewart to Phillips actually took place midway through last season.
The defense underwent some interesting changes in the offseason,
releasing longtime DE/OLB Greg Ellis to allow former first-rounder
Spencer to become a starter. Zach
Thomas fled for the Chiefs and the team essentially replaced
him with another aging two-down linebacker in Keith
Brooking. DE Igor Olshansky should be a better run stopper
than the man he replaces in Chris
Canty. The great thing for Dallas is that all the aforementioned
players (Spencer, Brooking and Olshansky) are experienced in Phillips'
schemes from the coach's previous stops as a DC in Atlanta and
San Diego. The schedule isn't all that much different from a competitive
standpoint than a season ago as the Cowboys replace the NFC West
with the AFC West and the AFC North with the NFC South.
Even though there has been some significant change in the starting
lineup, each starter will have already had the benefit of working
with Phillips at some point � meaning the transition period
should be minimal. Factor in the fact that Phillips will also
be giving the defense his full attention in 2009 and Dallas stands
to put together a stronger, more consistent effort this time around.
The big key for the 'Boys will be forcing more turnovers. Last
season's 20th place finish (22 turnovers) is not acceptable for
a Phillips' defense and a similar performance in 2009 will probably
lead to his dismissal. Assuming Spencer can fill Ellis' shoes
and the combination of CBs Orlando Scandrick and Mike Jenkins
can play better than Pacman Jones did last season, Dallas may
play well enough on defense to keep Phillips around for another
season. In terms of yards allowed, the Cowboys didn't allow more
than 278 yards passing � so it isn�t as if they were
abysmal last season, even with Jones starting � in any game
but their run defense was shredded on five separate occasions,
casting a dark cloud over a defense that defended the run well
in most of its other games.
New York Giants
Projected 2009 YPC: 3.8
Projected 2009 YPA: 6.6
Explanation: It is natural to expect a falloff from a defense
when a highly-respected coordinator like Steve Spagnuolo leaves
for a head coaching job. One way to get around that - and make
his replacement, Bill Sheridan, feel good about life - is by adding
enough quality depth to make his defense almost impervious to
injury. DTs Rocky Bernard and Chris Canty fortify what was already
a strong middle of the line and the return of Osi Umenyiora further
enhances the line, leaving the Giants with difference makers almost
regardless of which combination they throw out on the field. Sheridan's
former responsibility - the linebackers - are probably the weakest
link of this defense (in terms of depth), although that only figures
to come into play if MLB Antonio Pierce suffers a long-term injury.
Much like the line, the secondary pretty much goes two-deep with
quality players and benefits from the attacking style Spagnuolo
implemented and Sheridan intends to continue. With the presence
of the AFC West on the schedule in 2009, New York's final numbers
may rival the best defenses in the league and its defense is not
one I would particularly enjoy seeing any of my fantasy teams'
cornerstones going up against in the playoffs.
Philadelphia Eagles
Projected 2009 YPC: 3.8
Projected 2009 YPA: 6.4
Explanation: Perhaps no DC
- outside of Dick LeBeau - is more important to his defense than
Jim Johnson. Unfortunately, Johnson announced in May that he would
be taking an indefinite leave of absence to deal with an advancement
of his cancer. As we stand here on the eve of training camp, it
is still unknown whether or not he will be able to return to the
team. While no assistant could rightfully fill Johnson's considerably
large shoes or automatically pick up the knack of making the right
call at the most important time like Johnson did on a regular
basis, secondary coach Sean McDermott is the next in line and
has served under his mentor since both arrived in Philly in 1999,
meaning the aggressive blitzing style Eagles fans have come to
know and love isn't going anywhere. The same can't be said about
another Philadelphia institution, S Brian Dawkins, who left for
Denver and will be replaced by Quintin
The loss of either Johnson OR Dawkins alone is difficult enough,
but the loss of two such highly-regarded leaders would be devastating
to a team that tends to deal well with the year-to-year changes
that take place in the NFL. From a talent standpoint, the Eagles
figure to line up much the same way they did in 2008, when they
were one of just three defenses (Baltimore and Pittsburgh were
the others) that finished in the top five in total defense, run
defense, pass defense and points allowed last season. The schedule
doesn't change much from a competitive point of view as the Eagles
face the NFC South and AFC West teams this year as opposed to
the NFC West and AFC North teams from a season ago. But the Eagles,
while very young, resilient and very talented, would take a major
hit without Johnson on the sidelines. In short, if Johnson doesn�t
return, expect a defense that falls from the elite into the middle
of the pack. If he makes it back at some point in training camp,
a repeat of their stellar YPC and YPA averages from a season ago
are likely in order.
Washington Redskins
Projected 2009 YPC: 3.7
Projected 2009 YPA: 6.0
Explanation: There is a lot to like about this unit in 2009,
particularly when one considers the Redskins' defense finished
sixth in points allowed and fourth in total defense last year.
Although much of that "success" could be contributed
to the very conservative nature of the offense from a season ago,
the two areas that absolutely needed to be addressed on defense
were pass rush and turnovers. Enter Pro Bowl DT Albert Haynesworth
and first-round pick LB Brian Orakpo, two players who will definitely
help in both regards. Their additions complement a front seven
that already feature DE Andre Carter � who should see a
significant rise in sacks this season � as well as LBs London
Fletcher and Rocky McIntosh, the latter of which the Redskins
were reportedly thrilled with in the spring. Safeties Chris Horton
and LaRon Landry are both solid two-way defenders who round out
an impressive collection of talent for DC Greg Blache. Washington
also added former Colts P Hunter Smith, who should be a much-needed
upgrade over last year's duo (Durant Brooks and Ryan Plackemeier)
and provide the Redskins' defense with some more margin for error.
There's a lot to like from not only a fantasy defense perspective
here and games against weaker offenses like the Chiefs, Raiders
and Rams should only make their bottom line look even better.
Chicago Bears
Projected 2009 YPC: 3.8
Projected 2009 YPA: 6.8
Explanation: Since DC Bob Babich joined Chicago�s coaching
staff in 2004, the Bears have forced 172 takeaways, most in the
NFL during that span. The defense also ranked fifth in the NFL
against the run in 2008, allowing just 93.5 yards per game. The
3.4 yards per carry allowed by the Bears last season was third
lowest in the league. Based on their returning players and incoming
talent, there is little reason to expect much of a falloff in
either category in 2009. At first glance, their 30th place finish
in passing yards allowed appears alarming, but further analysis
reveals their YPA allowed was tied for eighth -best in the league,
so there isn't all that much to worry about at all because it
implies that opponents gave up running the ball. Certainly, an
elite defense doesn�t give up many yards either way, but
defenses want their opponents to be one-dimensional and given
the Bears� Cover 2 system, Chicago is not likely to see
a repeat of the total yardage piled up against it in the air last
season. The oddest stat - for such a proficient defense - is how
the Bears surrendered 16 rushing TDs, which suggests they were
not stout enough up front. To that end, Chicago used a third-rounder
to select DL Jarron Gilbert, who led D-I in tackles for a loss
last season. The rookie figures to give the Bears someone who
can fill in for "three-tech" Tommie Harris and protect
the team in case of another injury to their Pro Bowl DT. But their
bigger problem is the lack of a plugger-type of defensive tackle
to play alongside Harris. Right now, the best they can hope for
is a healthy and productive Dusty Dvoracek (who has yet to complete
a season and has missed significant time in all three of his NFL
seasons) or further development from Marcus Harrison.
As for the pass defense, ex-Rams LB Pisa Tinoisamoa figures to
perform at a higher level than the underrated Hunter Hillermeyer.
However, S Craig Steltz could get exposed as a pass defender if
he gets isolated on a receiver very often, so Chicago will need
to monitor that. More than likely, though, he will be put in a
position to succeed, meaning he will be asked to punish receivers
across the middle and serve as an intimidating presence on the
back end of the defense. The schedule gives them a bit of a break,
so this team could actually perform at a lower level than it did
a season ago and put up similar numbers.
Detroit Lions
Projected 2009 YPC: 4.7
Projected 2009 YPA: 7.9
Explanation: When a team sets a new record for futility, things
need to change. Besides remaking the roster, HC Jim Schwartz brought
in an old friend to coach the defense in DC Gunther Cunningham,
who worked with Schwartz during his first three years as a defensive
coordinator in Tennessee. The contrast in styles is interesting
as Schwartz is a defensive coach who typically let his front four
create the pressure whereas Cunningham has long been known for
his aggressive blitzing style. Expect Cunningham to win out for
now as the current personnel really lends itself more to a Cunningham-type
defense than a Schwartz-led one. How is that? For example, since
it could be argued that LB Julian Peterson is the best pass rusher
on the team, it wouldn�t make much sense to have him in
coverage all game long. And if things work out as expected, it
is in the passing game where Detroit�s defense will suffer
the most in 2009. The Lions will likely be forced to blitz more
often than it would like to, so without a top-notch CB, they could
struggle to contain even average passing games. The one thing
that will change under a Schwartz-led team will be the number
of gaffes committed by the secondary, something that happened
with regularity over the past few seasons with former HC Rod Marinelli.
While it could easily be questioned whether or not the Lions
improved their CB situation in the offseason, the addition of
second-round pick S Louis Delmas may turn out to be a steal. While
his hard-hitting style will serve the team well in the run game,
Delmas' physical presence should also provide Detroit with an
intimidating force in the passing game. However, expect Schwartz
and Cunningham to have their most impact in the run game. As mentioned
earlier, Delmas will help but it will be a healthy DT Grady Jackson
and MLB Larry Foote who should chop a half-yard off the Lions'
woeful YPC allowed from a season ago. And they will need it; Detroit
figures to get challenged by the running games in its own division
as well as teams such as the 49ers, Ravens and Steelers. The Lions
will likely need another offseason to get their defense on track
with the majority of the league, but opponents will see a much
more physical and competitive unit already this season.
Green Bay Packers
Projected 2009 YPC: 4.0
Projected 2009 YPA: 6.8
Explanation: Even though one of Green Bay�s best defensive
players - Aaron Kampman - made everyone quite aware of his displeasure
of the change to the 3-4, the Packers have done a better job than
most of the teams that decided to transition from the 4-3 this
season. The current plan - besides moving Kampman from his familiar
4-3 DE position to an 3-4 OLB - is to use first-round selection
NT B.J. Raji at DE and leave NT Ryan Pickett in the middle. Because
Raji is so athletic for a man his size, the move could work and
should do wonders for the team's run defense. Another boon to
the run defense will be S Atari Bigby, who new DC Dom Capers wants
to use in a manner similar to that of the Steelers' Troy Polamalu.
Bigby, who is playing for a contract this season, was hampered
almost all of 2008 by a nagging ankle injury that eventually required
surgery. Capers has been around long enough to know not to force
that kind of role onto a player unless he can handle it, so expect
big things from Bigby this season. Combine a healthy Bigby with
a solid LB corps as well as a couple of run-pluggers up front
and it wouldn�t be a stretch to expect a much better performance
vs. the run in 2009.
After being asked to play press coverage almost exclusively for
the last several years, it will be interesting how starting CBs
Charles Woodson and Al Harris will react to playing more zone.
Both figure to have trouble initially, but Harris has struggled
in his career when he's been asked to do anything but play press,
so opposing offenses may pick on him more than we have seen in
years. As luck would have it, though, most of the teams on their
schedule this season are running teams so the timing of this defensive
transition is fortunate. Because the adjustment period for a dramatic
scheme change on defense rarely goes smoothly, Green Bay will
struggle from time to time against the run. But Capers is one
of the best at his job in the league and considering the Packers
have the correct personnel already in place, dramatic improvement
shouldn�t be too far away.
Minnesota Vikings
Explanation: (For the purposes of this article, I will assume
that the NFL will end up getting its way in suspending Kevin and
Pat Williams.) It's no secret the "Williams Wall" holds
the key to the Vikings' defense and is instrumental in their ability
to stop the run. No team can have both of their starting DTs miss
substantial time without paying for it, but Minnesota is woefully
thin behind the Williams Wall. The Vikes do catch a break by facing
Cleveland and Detroit right out of the gate, so the timing of
the Williams� suspensions could be worse. The linemen's
extended absence will have a fairly dramatic affect on the team's
final rushing defense numbers, but the Vikings are sufficiently
talented to make sure none of the first four opponents they face
will feature the run exclusively.
The main concern - as it has been for some time - is if this
will be just another year in which teams cannot run against Minnesota
but can throw it effectively? Because only rookie Asher Allen
and ex-Bronco Karl Paymah were added to the back end of the defense
while veteran S Darren Sharper was allowed to leave, the answer
is probably an unfortunate "yes". Mind you, the days
of opponents having their way with the Vikings' pass defense are
over so long as their pass rush continues to maintain their current
level. But this defense will not be able to match the elite defenses
in this league unless FS Madieu Williams can stay healthy all
season long and SS Tyrell Johnson transforms into the center-field
intimidator that he is capable of becoming. Fortunately, only
Green Bay (twice), Arizona and maybe Cincinnati stand out as teams
that will be able to take advantage of the Vikings in the passing
game. Furthermore, the Vikings get to play three teams in the
NFC West that will struggle to mount much of an air threat, so
we may not see Minnesota exposed for its shortcomings vs. the
pass until the playoffs.
Atlanta Falcons
Projected 2009 YPC: 4.6
Projected 2009 YPA: 7.1
Explanation: Lost in the unexpected emergence of the Falcons
last season was a defense that defied logic and feasted on a last-place
schedule. Quite honestly, if the NFL hadn�t experienced
a rash of poor rush defense, Atlanta would have been talked about
in the same breath as the 2006 Indianapolis Colts. Since 2000,
only five defenses allowed more than the 4.9 YPC the 2008 Falcons
did and just seven others tied that mark. The reason those facts
didn't receive more publicity was because four of those aforementioned
12 defenses joined Atlanta in that club last season alone. In
the six games where they allowed 150+ rushing yards, the Falcons
went 3-3 (suffice it to say most teams don�t fare that well).
Finally, Atlanta tied with Washington for 29th in the league in
forcing turnovers (18). In a league that typically rewards teams
that can stop the run and force turnovers, the Falcons did neither
all that well. It may have been with those numbers in mind Atlanta
was willing to let some many of its regular defenders leave, including
four of its five leading tacklers from a season ago.
Even though the team made numerous upgrades in the offseason
(first-round DT Peria Jerry, second-round S William Moore, free
agent SLB Mike Peterson to name a few), this defense will probably
once again live and die on the health of DE John Abraham - who
incidentally recorded 11 of his 16.5 sacks in 2008 vs. Detroit,
Kansas City, Oakland and a downtrodden Tampa Bay team late in
the season. Despite a pass defense that played better than the
sum of its parts, the new additions on defense will need to gel
quickly (as Atlanta plays six games against teams that finished
in the top nine in rushing yards) if the Falcons hope to post
consecutive winning seasons for the first time in franchise history.
Carolina Panthers
Projected 2009 YPC: 4.4
Projected 2009 YPA: 6.3
Explanation: The Panthers' defense is one of the harder to predict
for the upcoming season. Was new DC Ron Meeks brought in to implement
the "Tampa 2" defense he ran so well in Indianapolis
from 2002-08? Or will HC John Fox return to his defensive roots
and call the signals? The good money is on the former for a couple
of reasons: 1) in Meeks' time with the Colts, his defenses finished
seventh or better in points allowed five times and 2) the selection
of second-round pick DE Everette Brown. Brown's build and game
is similar to the Colts� Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney
and, considering what it took to acquire him, the ex-Seminole
will be seeing time sooner than later.
As for the unit Meeks will be overseeing, the Panthers' defense
figures to be tested week in and week out after facing a handful
of poor offenses in 2008. Meeks' defenses require the CBs to be
sure tacklers and the Panthers have the personnel already on hand
(especially Richard Marshall), so they should be better at stopping
the run than they were last season. The front four should get
a fairly consistent pass rush and the linebackers are nimble enough
to get back into coverage, so as a whole, Carolina's defense should
be better than last season. As with any "Tampa 2" defense,
the key will be how well the middle of the defense can stand up
to the run, so power running teams may have some success against
them. That said, Meeks' history with Indy suggests that his defense
will find a way to keep opponents out of the end zone. Expect
a decent amount of turnovers and a better finish in just about
every meaningful category (for the purposes of this conversation:
YPC, YPA, points allowed) in 2009.
New Orleans Saints
Projected 2009 YPC: 4.1
Projected 2009 YPA: 6.7
Explanation: The Saints are finally getting it right on defense.
Even after a one-and-done job at Jacksonville, the hiring of DC
Gregg Williams represents a major coup for a defense that hasn't
finished in the top 10 in points or yards allowed since 2000.
If there was truly a power struggle over the Jags' defense as
has been speculated, one down year shouldn't take away from Williams�
otherwise stellar resume. While there are still some weak links
in New Orleans, Williams gets an opportunity to take over a defense
on its way up in the talent department. For the first time in
years, New Orleans should have legitimate starting CBs, with rookie
Malcolm Jenkins, Tracy Porter and Randall Gay fighting for two
spots. Ideally, Jenkins has a Darrelle Revis-type learning curve
and can become the physical, playmaking CB that will stick to
the opponent's top WR week and week out. Before landing on IR
with a dislocated wrist, Porter looked to be on the fast track
of becoming the team�s top corner. Gay, if relegated to
a CB3 role this season, would qualify as one of the better nickel
backs in the league. The safeties are also coming together as
free agent Darren Sharper joins Roman Harper and converted CB
Usama Young in what should be a ball-hawking secondary.
The quality of the back end of the defense becomes all the more
important because: 1) Williams loves to blitz and 2) DEs Charles
Grant and Will
Smith figure to be suspended for the first four games of the
season. But the key - especially against the Saints' very difficult
schedule this season - will be to contain the run. New Orleans'
offense figures to help its defense out in that regard because
it will put some of its opponents in an early hole, but the Saints
still lack the bulk up front to be a consistent run-stopping force.
Williams' blitzes will help in that area, though, so expect a
better-than-expected showing from the entire defense in 2009.
Tampa Bay Bucs
Projected 2009 YPC: 4.2
Projected 2009 YPA: 7.4
Explanation: With all the new things that Raheem Morris figures
to experience in his first head coaching gig, it was important
that he be able to turn his offense and defense over to some experienced
coordinators. The offense got a keeper in OC Jeff Jagodzinski
and the defense will have the benefit of playing for DC Jim Bates,
who is entering his 17th season as a NFL coach and looking to
erase the memories of his last such job that sullied an otherwise
solid resume. Just about everywhere Bates has been, his defenses
have been able to stop the run and rank amongst the best in the
league in total defense; he has guided defenses that have ranked
among the NFL�s top 10 in overall yards allowed during six
of his eight years leading a defense. But the 2007 season in Denver
cost a lot of people their jobs and Bates was no exception. So,
after a season away, he will be looking to rid himself of that
blemish. Bates has long preferred bigger linemen (as evidence
with the Broncos� 2009 draft picks), so the undersized players
that played on Monte Kiffin's front four are already gone, being
weeded out or bulking up. Chris Hovan and Ryan Sims figure to
start, but it wouldn't be a total surprise if third-rounder Roy
Miller was seeing as much time as the two veterans by the end
of the year.
Bates inherits a pretty decent defensive backfield, although
CB Ronde Barber is not nearly as good of a fit in the new man-to-man,
bump-and-run scheme as he was in the "Tampa 2". Because
of that, expect opponents to now attack Barber as opposed to staying
away from him. On the other hand, the switch should be great for
CB Aqib Talib - Morris has gone so far to suggest that Talib could
lead the NFL in INTs. The scheme change should also free up SS
Sabby Piscitelli and FS Tanard Jackson, two very athletic young
players who will be allowed to show off their ball-hawking abilities
much more than they were in Kiffin�s defense. The question
marks for this unit - and the thing that will stop it from being
a good run-stopping team in 2009 - are the LBs after MLB Barrett
Ruud. Jermaine Phillips is moving up from safety while there is
a three-way competition at the other outside spot. Phillips should
excel at blitzing, which Bates will do more than Kiffin, but blitzing
will hardly be a cure-all for the Bucs. Combine that with the
presence of some top offenses in their division - a slate that
includes the NFC East and AFC East - and there is enough reason
to believe Tampa Bay will not fare well on defense in its first
season under Bates.
Arizona Cardinals
Projected 2009 YPC: 4.4
Projected 2009 YPA: 6.7
Explanation: The OC (Todd Haley) finds a head coaching job, the
DC (Clancy Pendergast) gets canned and ends up following him to
the Chiefs. Even in an ever-changing league like the NFL, that
much change at the top rarely ever ends well. New DC Bill Davis
enters his second stint as a team's defensive coordinator after
a largely unsuccessful two-year trial in San Francisco from 2005-06
and will oversee a full-time conversion to the 3-4 after toying
with it off and on for the last few years. While the defensive
backfield should be as strong as it has been in franchise history,
the front seven lacks ideal personnel for their new defense and
may pay for it vs. the run. (Unfortunately, they face four of
the top seven rushing teams from last season and most of RBs going
in the first round and a half this year in fantasy drafts.) Darnell
Dockett and Karlos Dansby are two players that can fit in any
kind of defense, but to make a 3-4 defense really go, a team needs
a plugger at NT. Bryan Robinson is getting up there in age (35)
and is really more suited for a part-time role, Gabe Watson can't
seem to get his knee right and Alan Branch's career has gone nowhere
up to this point. If Davis knows what is good for his job security,
S Adrian Wilson will be heavily involved in the box as he always
is, so the Arizona run defense shouldn't fall off too much from
last season's 11th place finish in yards allowed per rush.
San Francisco 49ers
Projected 2009 YPC: 4.0
Projected 2009 YPA: 7.0
Explanation: As quite often happens, a head coach will receive
full credit for a unit that a coordinator either ran himself or
worked hand-in-hand with the coach. While no one should take anything
away from the changes that HC Mike Singletary has already imposed
on the Niners, DC Greg Manusky deserves at least a bit of the
credit for the midseason turnaround San Francisco made in 2008.
Over the final seven games of the season, the defense ranked seventh
in the NFL in points allowed (17.4 ppg). Additionally, the Niners
ranked third in passing yards allowed (177.4 ypg) over the final
five games of the year.
For much of Manusky's two years with the Niners, his defenses
have been criticized for being "soft" and, while that
may be true to a certain degree, it quite often goes unnoticed
that defenses look a lot better when the offense complements it.
(In other words, when Singletary took over at midseason and asked
OC Mike Martz to pound the ball, the defense went from being "soft"
and "passive" to being "efficient". Sometimes,
fans feel with a LB such as Patrick Willis on the roster, the
Niners' defense should emulate the Ravens' defense and blitz every
down.) The truth of the matter is that while the Niners are slowly
building toward a solid defense, the front three is below average
and free agent pickup CB Dre' Bly was signed out of desperation
after Walt Harris was lost for the season. Unfair as it might
sound, the 49ers' pass defense will live and die on how well Bly
plays since opponents without elite WRs won't be all that excited
to throw in CB Nate Clements' direction. Because the LB corps
is the strongest unit on the defense by far, expect San Francisco
to be a bit better than the league average vs. the run in 2009.
The Niners get a slight break in the schedule in 2009 vs. the
run though as AFC South and NFC North teams replaces the hard-nosed
NFC East and AFC East divisions.
Seattle Seahawks
Projected 2009 YPC: 4.2
Projected 2009 YPA: 7.0
Explanation: At first glance, Seattle would seem to be a team
that will turn its defense over to its new HC, Jim Mora Jr, a
defensive coach by trade. However, seeing how taken the Seahawks
are with new DC Gus Bradley, he will probably get the opportunity
to lead the unit. Judging by his Tampa Bay and Monte Kiffin roots,
it wouldn't come as a big surprise if Seattle adopts a great deal
of the "Tampa 2" approach. The LB corps figures to once
again be the strength of this team as the trio of Leroy Hill,
Lofa Tatupu and rookie Aaron Curry is as solid as it gets and
would be a good fit for such a scheme, particularly Curry. Given
the rave reviews Curry generated in the spring, expect little
to no falloff from the replacement of Julian Peterson, who was
traded to Detroit for DT Cory Redding. Perhaps it was Redding�s
ability to rush the passer from the inside that prompted the trade;
regardless, he should be a good fit in a Cover 2 scheme. Since
Colin Cole is really the only the player with the size to be a
run-plugger on defense (and reserve Brandon Mebane to a lesser
extent), the run defense may struggle although the run-heavy teams
of the AFC North and NFC East are not on the schedule this year
as they were in 2008.
Where the defense should improve is against the pass. DEs Darryl
Tapp and Lawrence Jackson were impressive in camp and will compete
for the right to line up opposite Patrick Kerney in what is a
nice rotation of capable pass rushers. Curry will blitz as well,
thereby helping CB Marcus Trufant rebound from a down season.
Seattle also brought back Ken Lucas to compete with Josh Wilson,
leaving the team with three more players with substantial starting
experience there as well. The safeties - Brian Russell and Deon
Grant - are upgradeable, but at the same time, that position tends
to rise and fall based on how well the players in front of them
perform. Power-running teams could give this team some problems
as could offenses with a top-notch deep passing game, but all
in all, Bradley and Mora should get this unit to perform at a
higher level than it did in 2008.
St. Louis Rams
Projected 2009 YPC: 4.6
Projected 2009 YPA: 7.6
Explanation: While Ken Flajole will have the title of defensive
coordinator, it's a pretty safe bet he'll be giving way to HC
Steve Spagnuolo on Sundays, at least for this season. And that's
a good thing, because not only Flajole is taking on his first
pro DC job, but also because the Rams' defense was just a bit
better than the Lions' last year. St. Louis' YPC and YPA allowed
were both in the bottom five of the league, so a complete overhaul
was in order. Spagnuolo quickly built his reputation on the Jim
Johnson-type of aggressive, blitzing defense in his short time
with the Giants, something that will take another year or two
to fully implement in St. Louis.
With that said, the Rams have some significant pieces in place.
CB Ron Bartell is a big corner who was locked up to a long-term
contract in the offseason while franchise player S O.J. Atogwe
is an intimidating presence in the middle of the field. S James
Butler followed his old DC from the Giants and is another key
piece to the puzzle. Second-round selection MLB James Laurinaitis
comes with a college track record that takes a back seat to no
one while OLB Will Witherspoon moves out from the middle back
to his old position on the weak side. Finally, DE Chris Long and
DTs Adam Carriker and Clifton Ryan are foundation fixtures that
Spagnuolo will build his d-line rotation around. Even with DE
Leonard Little on the downside of his career, "Spags"
can't help but generate better results all around. But as stated
earlier, this defense is at least a year away and the schedule
offers few breaks. When the Rams aren't facing the power running
teams of Minnesota, Jacksonville and Tennessee this season, they
are taking on Green Bay, Indianapolis, New Orleans, Houston and
Arizona (twice). The defense won't be epically bad again, but
it will struggle.
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Partner of USA TODAY Sports Digital Properties.


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School counselors are an integral part of today's educational system. Their role serves to foster the proper emotional, social, academic, and career development of students. They help to ensure that the students of today become the well rounded adults of tomorrow.
During the elementary years, students begin to develop academically. This time shapes who they are as learners. It is imperative that school counselors are present so that they may identify and address needs that students may have, thus eliminating stumbling blocks and promoting students' academic achievement.
School counselor Rebecca Atkins of Millbrook Elementary School in Raleigh, North Carolina serves as an excellent example of this process at work. Taking a proactive role in education of the students at her school, she dedicates herself to making a difference in the lives of the students. That dedication shines through in the following interview.
Where did you go to college and what was your major? Did you anticipate becoming a school counselor?
I was a psychology major in undergrad at Furman University in South Carolina. I wanted to do neuroscience research and did not plan on being a school counselor. I later realized that I wanted to have more personal interaction than research would allow so I began exploring other careers.
Where and how did your career start?
I went to the University of North Carolina for my graduate work and began with my internship at Pathways Elementary in Hillsborough, NC. I worked there about 23 hours per week during my internship. Even though I was not a paid employee, I was there so much it felt like I was a part of the school team!
What do you most enjoy about being a school counselor?
I really like the diversity of duties. My personality is such that I would not like to be in one classroom all day or sitting at a desk all day. Being a school counselor means that every day is different and brings new challenges.
What all does the job of a school counselor entail?
A lot! Counseling roles can be broken in to two different categories: proactive and responsive. In the proactive role, a counselor teaches classes, runs groups, facilitates outside agencies, works with parents, runs programs like peer mediation, and participates in some type of student support team.
In the reactive role, a counselor sees students for individual counseling, meets with teachers who might be struggling with a student, and handles crisis situations (e.g. a student who is extremely upset and having an outburst). Counselors are also often the first-line social worker, dealing with families who need assistance or are struggling outside of school.
What, in your opinion, is the primary role of a school counselor? How does one lay the groundwork for that role and then deliver on that?
I see the primary role of the counselor to be a social-emotional educator. A counselor is a teacher just like a classroom teacher, but instead teaches a different subject area. A counselor might teach a classroom, a group, or an individual student. This is supported by the American School Counselors Association National Model and also in the North Carolina Standard Course of Study. Not all counselors view the role of counseling the same way, however, and there is much diversity in counselor-role expectations.
What is the most stressful aspect of your career? The most rewarding?
I have 815 students at my school. To deliver the type of program that I would like to deliver, we really need to have two counselors. Unfortunately, education budgeting is always tight. There is no way to do my job at the level that I would like in the 36 hours that students are in school every week. Even leaving all of my extra paperwork for after school hours, I just don't have enough of me to go around!
The most rewarding part of my job is that I get to work with children every day. Not only that, I work with children in kindergarten through 5th grade, so I can break up my time and spend my day working at different developmental levels. There is also a lot of flexibility in a counselor's time that teachers just don't have. I like the ability to change my day around based on my needs and the needs of my students. Of course that also means you might end up dealing with a crisis all day instead of the schedule that you had originally planned!
Do you feel that school counseling is effective?
There are days when I wonder if school counseling is effective. One of the major pushes that the counseling community is working on right now is showing data that points to the results of counseling. Even if you can't see the "seed" that you plant within a child, it is reassuring to know that one day they will remember you and the effort that you made in their honor. I couldn't do this every day if I thought I wasn't making a change.
How is the job market now for school counselors? How do you think it will be in 5 years?
I think there is a real need for school counselors, especially highly qualified ones. Of course, different age groups have different needs. It is more difficult to find a job at an elementary school than a high school because there is only one counselor in an elementary school. Projections for future years show that schools are going to be drastically growing. More schools mean more counselors as long as funding is still supported.
What are the hottest issues/specialties in school counseling currently, and what do you think will be next?
Right now, one of the biggest issues in school counseling is student to counselor ratios. The ASCA recommendation is 250 to 1. This is unrealistic due to funding. However, some elementary schools have over 1000 students and only one counselor.
Right now in my state, elementary counselors are not mandated; thus ratios are much higher than in middle or high schools.
We need to have better support for our counselors from legislators and the public. In order to reinforce the need for school counselors, the ASCA organization has implemented the National Model that pushes for data-driven counseling programs. In addition, the National Model seeks to show results of the efforts that counselors make. A conundrum is that with counselor to student ratios as they are, counselors are having a hard time finding the time needed to gather the data to participate in the National Model!
Is there anything else you can tell us about yourself, your career, or education that would be interesting or helpful to others aspiring to enter and succeed in school counseling?
When I was in college, my professors encouraged me to only pursue a job if I couldn't imagine myself doing anything else. Not everyone is going to pursue a career that they are that passionate about; however, if you are to pursue school counseling, make sure that you are absolutely passionate about it. This is a very high stress, low reward job. There are no cushy paychecks or big thank you's to keep you warm at night. If you are passionate about what you do, you don't need to external reminders that what you do is important.

subset: commoncrawl


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The school year is winding down but final activities are gearing up with elementary schools just as busy as secondary schools.
A number of programs are planned for sixth-graders at Verdugo Woodlands. Camp Highland runs Tuesday through Friday, and a Pool Party at Oakmont Country Club at 2 p.m. June 14 keeps things cool.
Verdugo Woodlands' sixth-graders continue their spree with an Achievement Dinner at 5:30 p.m. June 16 at Anoush Banquets in Glendale, followed by the infamous, and sometimes outrageous, Sixth-grade versus Faculty/Parents Softball Game at 9 a.m. June 17 in Babe Herman Park. For more information, contact Hilda Hacobian at hilda4h@ hotmail.com.
Following tradition, 12th-graders at Glendale High School have their graduation activities at the ready.
"It's a time to celebrate the successful end of high school and the opportunities that are opening up for graduates," said PTSA President Sydney Swainston.
Senior Awards Night is at 6 p.m. Tuesday in the auditorium, hosted by the PTSA. The annual Baccalaureate is delivered to the graduating class at 2 p.m. June 13 at St. Mark's Episcopal Church on Brand Boulevard.
There is a graduation rehearsal at 12:30 p.m. June 16 in the auditorium, and a final rehearsal at 8 a.m. June 17. Graduates will have fun attending Grad Night at Six Flags Magic Mountain on June 17, and wrap it all up at graduation on Moyse Field at 6 p.m. June 18.
"We want to thank all parents, teachers and students who worked so hard to make this year memorable and wish all the best to our graduates," Swainston added.
Glendale Healthy Start needs donations of soap, shampoo and lotion for homeless families.
Small, travel-size bottles are perfect. Healthy Start is in Room 101 in the Glendale Unified School District building at 223 N. Jackson St. Items can be dropped off during office hours. Call (818) 241-3111, Ext. 489.
Glendale High SchoolThe PTSA's final meeting is today in the library. Business starts at 6 p.m., followed by recognition of Reflections Art winners and art displays at 7 p.m. including discussion of Glendale High's Visual and Performing Arts programs. Everyone is welcome.
Congratulations to Shant Alvandyan, who is the 2010 Pat Navolanic Memorial Award recipient. Alvandyan was selected as the senior who most exemplifies leadership traits, scholarship skills and athletic prowess of 1963 grad Pat Navolanic. Awards have been issued annually since 1966.
Twelfth-graders should be in receipt of their schedule through the end of the year. Besides prom and graduation, other important reminders include awards for Community Service or other achievements at 6 p.m. Tuesday.
On June 13, the school holds its Baccalaureate at 2 p.m. Students bringing a non-Glendale High School guest to Grad Night must turn in a completed Dance Guest Pass Request to Assistant Principal William Sterling.
Wilson Middle SchoolWilson's Final PTSA meeting is at 6 p.m. Tuesday. Outgoing President Helena Williams thanks everyone for the great memories she has garnered in her opportunity to serve through PTA.
R.D. White ElementaryR.D. White extends thanks to the PTA for its recent Spring Festival where games, food and entertainment brought families and community together on behalf of the school.
Verdugo Woodlands ElementaryA warm welcome extends to the 2010-11 PTA and Woodlanders are Volunteers for Education Foundation board members.
"We appreciate all of the volunteers who give back to our Verdugo Woodlands community," said liaison Kathy Lo.
Consider pre-ordering your 2010-11 school supplies with WAVE for delivery straight to your child's classroom on the first day. This is a fabulous fundraiser since a portion of the proceeds goes to support PTA sponsored events at school. You save time, and the school raises money!
"Let WAVE erase the frustration of shopping for school supplies in the summer by ordering your supplies by June 11," encourages Chairwoman Michele Ashamalla. She can be contacted through e-mail at micheleash@ sbcglobal.net.
Take 'em out to the ballgame for the Dodgers versus Angels on June 13.
"Order tickets for $12 each and cheer with fellow Verdugo Woodlands' baseball fans over popcorn, peanuts, and a few cracker jacks," Kathy Lo said.
For more information, contact Kim Marquardt at firstname.lastname@example.com.


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TAMPA — Taylor Swift is doing a darn good job raising your daughters.
After all, they actually listen to the Queen of Broken Hearts — at least they sure did Saturday at a sold-out Tampa Bay Times Forum, where guys were outnumbered oh, about 16,134 squealing gals to one. The middle-school melange absolutely ate up her cotton-candied wisdom about tolerance, esteem and how dumb boys can be. (Guilty as charged, Taylor.)
Plus Swift was so sweet, soothing, nurturing, she made Mary Poppins look like the Notorious B.I.G. Not only did her fans return the feel-good embrace through sheer volume during the two-hour show — in which every cut was blown out with thrashing dance routines, big-budget effects and red-hued wardrobe changes — but dozens in the wriggling, grateful crowd brought blinking homemade signs just in case their tinnitus-inducing wails weren't getting through.
Say what you will about the most powerful woman in pop — she's cheeseball, she's cheeky, she's more cavity-causing than a pouch of Fun Dip — but the 23-year-old Swift is steady in her earnest, wide-eyed portrayal.
After opening songs State of Grace and Holy Ground, both from new LP Red, Swift introduced herself to those who might not know her: "Hi, I'm Taylor. Nice to meet you. Thank you for coming to my show. ... I'm told I have a lot of feelings!" Oh man, did they eat this stuff up. And you know what? Good for them!
Credit Swift for learning from past tours, and maybe some bad press. She doesn't really do the "wonder gaze" anymore, that is-it-all-a-dream Cinderella schtick. (Confession: I kinda miss it.) Now she's flirtier, more knowing, egging on the screams with a calculated blink of her doe eyes.
She flashed some gam now and then, injecting muted sex appeal for the fans growing along with her. Still, compared to Rihanna's gyratory show here Friday, Swift is as racy as a Care Bear. Even when she doffed a ballgown during I Knew You Were Trouble, she revealed a top and shorts that wouldn't be out of place at Aunt Shirley's summer picnic.
She also kept things artistically fresh, including a shoo-be-dooing girl-group rendition of You Belong With Me. Swift has all but ditched any last vestige of her country roots, but her pure pop transformation has felt organic (e.g. the fun dance-off 22), which proves she was never that Nashville anyway.
There was endless expensive trickery: a giant multi-tiered stage that transformed into a carousel; an elevated B-stage in the back of the house where she played Begin Again; a floating platform that brought her back to the main stage while she cooed Sparks Fly; some jewelry-box ballerina nonsense for Love Story.
But for all that, Swift always made sure she was never far from her fans, seemingly working every part of the room all the way until the Big Top madness of the show's closer, We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together.
The setlist felt slight at 17 songs, and for as strong as Red is, I'm not sure it deserved to be represented by 11 (!) new songs. Swift is an exceptionally catchy songwriter with gobs of hits, and she abandoned rich parts of her first three albums.
But hey, any complaints put me in the minority. Besides, daughters don't listen to me anyway.
Sean Daly can be reached at [email protected] Follow @seandalypoplife on Twitter.


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California Department of Transportation
Headquarters Sacramento
Matt Rocco
(916) 654-5467
September 23, 2010
Lack of Budget Freezes $3.9 Billion in Transportation Funding
Sacramento – Due to the lack of a new state budget, $932 million in transportation funding was delayed or deferred today, according to the California Department of Transportation. Last month, $3 billion in transportation projects were impacted statewide, bringing the total to $3.9 billion in the past two months.
"The effects of the delayed budget are being felt as the California Transportation Commission meets today," said Caltrans Director Cindy McKim. "Funding for transportation projects worth $2.3 billion that are contingent on the approval of the state budget may either be deferred or delayed. These include projects funded by Proposition 1B, the transportation bond approved by state voters in 2006."
Today's funding that is contingent upon approval of the 2010 state budget include a partial allocation to local agencies, valued at $678 million, $61 million for intercity rail and bus service on California's San Joaquin and Pacific Surfliner routes, and $37 million for 20 transportation projects statewide. The CTC today also deferred $156 million in allocations for nine projects, including $106 million for the following five projects funded by Proposition 1B:
Riverside County - $39.2 million to add one new lane in each direction on Interstate 215 in Murietta from the Interstate 15/215 interchange to Scott Road.
San Mateo County - $32.6 million to construct new lanes on U.S. Highway 101 between University Avenue in East Palo Alto and Marsh Road in Milpitas.
San Diego County - $10.5 million to construct a new lane on State Route 78 in San Marcos and Escondido from Woodland Parkway/Barham Drive to Nordahl Road.
San Diego County - $3.8 million to extend a connector ramp on State Route 78 from Nordahl Road to Interstate 15.
Los Angeles County - $20 million to convert bus/carpool lanes to bus/carpool toll lanes along the Interstate 10 and Interstate 110 corridors.
For information about the projects from today's meeting whose funding was deferred or is contingent on passage of a new state budget, please visit: http://www.dot.ca.gov/docs/ctcprojectallocationssept2010.pdf


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Rental motorhome in Gothenburg in Sweden
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A motorhome rental in Gothenburg is one of the best ways to explore both Gothenburg itself and the surrounding areas of southern. Gothenburg making it the perfect destination for people looking to explore some of the charm that country has to offer. GPS rentals or chauffeur services can both dramatically improve the quality of any trip to this region, whether it is for business or for pleasure. The mild climate, combined with the many historical locations in Gothenburg, makes this city one of the hidden gems in southern country.
Explore Gothenburg with a Rental Motorhome
Gothenburg Motorhome Rental Whether you are visiting Gothenburg on business or you are simply looking for an out-of-the-way destination for a personal vacation, grabbing a rental car in Gothenburg is the way to go. With the close proximity to larger cities in the region of country and the rich historical destinations that surround Gothenburg, it is hard to go wrong. The other local delicacies can be picked up at one of the many local farmers markets. Beyond the cuisine and thriving industry, Gothenburg features stunning architecture. This includes everything from gothic style buildings and churches to medieval alleys which have not been modified in hundreds of years.
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Motorhome Rental Gothenburg Exploring areas during trips in a vehicle is universally easier than trying to find your way around on foot or utilize the, often confusing, public transportation systems of these areas. The only issue that usually comes up with care rental is cost. With that being said, can be counted on to provide the lowest rates in the car rental industry, be it in Gothenburg - Sweden or anywhere else in country. We offer the most competitive rates on all vehicles from compact cars to large rental vans and even exotic sports cars! Beyond being merely a rental car company, helps our clients with everything from tour arrangements and hotel accommodations and cheap flights. Get a free quote today to start planning your trip to one of our travel experts and get the ball rolling with your car rental in Gothenburg today!


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Jones Tiffany Rope Key Tassel, Chartreuse
Jones Tiffany Rope Key Tassel, Chartreuse
Jones Tiffany rope key tassel in Chartreuse, an elegant key tassel with a Swarovski crystal collar. Designed exclusively for Jones Interiors this is a striking design adorned by many.
Using only the best quality Swarovski crystals this will add a touch of elegance and glamour to any room.
* Designed to compliment the Jones Lunar curtain pole range.
* Available in 16 colourways
* Matching Tieback available
* Swarovski buttons and trims also available in this range.
* Sold as singles.
Caution : Beaded products are not a toy and may contain components that could detach or break and become a hazard to small children.
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