America is giving up on the pandemic? - <AUTHOR> https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2020/06/america-giving-up-on-pandemic/612796/ <comment><USER2> All: if commenting, please be up to date on the site guidelines ([https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html](https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html)) and be sure follow them. Start here:

 _Be kind. Don 't be snarky. Have curious conversation; don't cross-examine. Comments should get more thoughtful and substantive, not less, as a topic gets more divisive._

Don't use a thread like this to fulminate or flame. It helps no one. It adds toxic fumes. Regardless of how right you are or which color the fumes, that points in the direction we're trying to avoid in this community.

There are important and interesting issues here. It's fine to debate, but do it within the guidelines. You'll do a better job of making your substantive points that way too.

<comment><USER2> This is a stub comment to collect replies in one place, so that it can be collapsed and prevent too much offtopicness at the top of the thread.

<comment><USER3> @dang,

Maybe the text in italics ("Be kind. Don't be snarky...") should be always shown above the HN comment box? It'd be nice to get the reminder every time we are starting to write something unkind or snarky...

<comment><USER4> Speaking as a frequent reddit user where various subreddits have added their versions of such an instruction, I think I've never really been reminded by them to behave a certain way.

Parts of the UI like that can really only be seen once: once the user has seen that it is just a warning that is always there, it becomes an uninteresting piece of clutter that is zoned over and never again influencing the user.

I think the current system works much better: a thoughtful and appropriate comment written by a human when deemed appropriate (or possibly copied, I don't know).

This reinforces the ideas when necessary, and by itself is already a push for humanity, while a robotic repeating reminder serves only rarely to reinforce good reactions.

<comment><USER5> Yes, I agree. It also reminds me there are folk looking out for and guiding the culture of the forum.

</comment></comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER6> Quoted from a letter from 1,000 health professionals on the virus and protests [0]

>However, as public health advocates, we do not condemn these gatherings as risky for COVID-19 transmission. We support them as vital to the national public health and to the threatened health specifically of Black people in the United States. We can show that support by facilitating safest protesting practices without detracting from demonstrators' ability to gather and demand change. This should not be confused with a permissive stance on all gatherings, particularly protests against stay-home orders."

Why are many taking this position? One can recognize that the protests are risking an increase in virus transmission while still recognizing that it is a risk worth taking. Don't tell us there is no risk from these protests, but there is a risk from stay-at-home protests. The virus is not selective of political beliefs. It completely ruins the credibility of many health professionals. Almost no one's opinions will be swayed either way if they acknowledged that the protests do carry a real risk of transmission.

[0] [https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/05/health/health-care-open- lette...](https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/05/health/health-care-open-letter- protests-coronavirus-trnd/index.html)

<comment><USER7> > However, as public health advocates, we do not condemn these gatherings as > risky for COVID-19 transmission

That's a shining example of weasel speak. They don't explicitly say it's not risky - because that would be plain lying, it is obviously risky - but they are saying they are not condemning it as risky. Which most people would take as implying it's not actually risky - even though they are not saying that. They are saying that the protest is too important to take health considerations into account, but they are reluctant to speak plainly and tell people there's risk but they should be adult and choose to manage the risks themselves and maybe neglect small risk in order to achieve bigger thing. Because that's what they spent last several months - and in fact, many years before - trying to convince people there's no way they can be treated as adults and just given the information and left to manage the risks by themselves. Just in this case, our betters had decided the COVID risk is less important than protesting - so it's OK for us. But only in cases which are approved by our betters. If you want to protest something else - it's still risky as heck and there they can fully condemn.

<comment><USER8> Don't forget public health officials outright lied and said masks don't help reduce the spread of the disease, putatively to help conserve masks for medical personnel: [https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/opinion/coronavirus- face-...](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/opinion/coronavirus-face- masks.html)

> When news of a mysterious viral pneumonia linked to a market in Wuhan, > China, reached the outside world in early January, one of my first reactions > was to order a modest supply of masks. Just a few weeks later, there wasn't > a mask to be bought in stores, or online for a reasonable price — just > widespread price gouging. Many health experts, no doubt motivated by the > sensible and urgent aim of preserving the remaining masks for health care > workers, started telling people that they didn't need masks or that they > wouldn't know how to wear them.

<comment><USER9> That is simply not true and an awful accusation.

The last Sars or Coronavirus illnesses differed from this one, as in those cases asymptomatic people were not spreading the virus very much.

So the (reasonable) assumption was that people mostly know when they are contagious and stay at home.

In that scenario "community masks" (everything below FPP-2) don't matter much.

When researchers found that Covid-19 is different (and that has to do with the massively higher virus load in the throat, where former similar diseases built most of the virus load in the lungs), the stance changed.

That is a good thing! Learn new information, adapt your response.

What's fueling conspiracy theories now is that the messaging back then centered on "we need to preserve masks for the medical community", which was a smaller component of the motivation, sure, but got mostly conflated with the real argument. I think that is because it was much easier to explain to the public and to journalists.

In hindsight that was a mistake. But the conspiracy theories that health officials just flip-flopped for no reason is wrong, and it's damaging the fabric of society even more.

<comment><USER10> It is actually true. The surgeon general literally said:

"Seriously people- STOP BUYING MASKS! They are NOT effective in preventing general public from catching #Coronavirus"

<comment><USER9> Did you read my comment at all?

"which was a smaller component of the motivation, sure, but got mostly conflated with the real argument. I think that is because it was much easier to explain to the public and to journalists."

<comment><USER10> They still lied, which was the original point. Even if they lied for what they believed to be good reasons.

<comment><USER9> No, they didn't. They reasonably believed masks to be useless (at least compared to the burden of having everyone wear masks).

They simplified (and arguably over-simplified) the public communication.

Insisting that they lied is uncharitable at best, and a hallmark of all sorts of conspiracy theories right now.

</comment></comment></comment></comment></comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER11> Total deaths in US caused by police. (2019, full year): 1112 [1]

Total deaths in US caused by coronavirus (last Friday, one day): 975 [2]

[1] [https://www.theroot.com/here-s-how-many-people-police- killed...](https://www.theroot.com/here-s-how-many-people-police-killed- in-2019-we-think-1841183889)

[2] [https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries](https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries)

<comment><USER12> Comparing apples to apples:

Average daily deaths in US caused by heart disease: 1800

Average daily deaths in US caused by cancer: 1600

Average daily deaths in US caused by corona virus: 1000

[https://www.healthline.com/health/leading-causes-of- death](https://www.healthline.com/health/leading-causes-of-death)

Comparing oranges to oranges:

Total deaths in US caused by homicide (2019): 19510

Total deaths in US caused by police (2019): 1112

[https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/homicide.htm](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/homicide.htm)

Comparing apples to oranges:

> Total deaths in US caused by police. (2019, full year): 1112 [1]

> Total deaths in US caused by coronavirus (last Friday, one day): 975 [2]

<comment><USER13> Comparing pears to pears:

Number of adults with diagnosed heart disease: 30.3 million [1]

People in the United States infected with corona virus: 1.9 million [2]

[1] [https://ftp.cdc.gov/pub/Health_Statistics/NCHS/NHIS/SHS/2018...](https://ftp.cdc.gov/pub/Health_Statistics/NCHS/NHIS/SHS/2018_SHS_Table_A-1.pdf)

[2] [https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus- us-c...](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us- cases.html)

<comment><USER12> Yes. Corona has a higher mortality rate than heart disease.

Those are just the kind of meaningful insights you get when you compare pears to pears, apples to apples or oranges to oranges.

</comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER14> A thing I've noticed is that they stopped mentioning the daily numbers on the radio (NPR, more specifically Iowa Public Radio).

It's sort of like the media has extracted all the juice they can from the pandemic and now we're just left with the pulpy mess that no one really wants to deal with.

<comment><USER15> I fear it might be more pernicious than that. There's reason to believe states are misreporting their numbers to hide what's going on with it. But I think the media senses the protests and racism issues have to take up all the available oxygen, "or else".

<comment><USER16> I think this is a lot of it, for better or worse. I feel like a lot of people are afraid to talk about anything but the protests lately, lest they be branded as not supporting the protests.

<comment><USER15> What's crazy though is for the first time in my life I actually fear for the future existence of the US. I watched 9/11 in real time and that didn't feel as much of a threat to our existence as this does. There's an actual civil war movement among the extremists now. I don't think that existed during the civil rights movement days, even. Nor even the Vietnam fallout.

<comment><USER17> If you think things are worse now than in the 1960's, I don't know what to tell you. They were way worse.

Multiple politicians assassinated. Major multi-day riots across multiple cities with hundred dead. Then a president being impeached.

2020 doesn't even come close to the 1960's.

<comment><USER18> Trump and Clinton were both impeached too. Neither were convicted, but Nixon wasn't convicted either (he quit before that could happen.)

<comment><USER17> Very true, but to your point, it was a given Nixon was leaving. With Clinton and Trump it was more political than a done deal.

</comment></comment></comment></comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER19> Just wanted to add that the abolish the police sentiment isnt as inane as it sounds on the surface. Abolish the police is about taking away responsibilities that police have today and giving them to people more suitable. Police - people trained for aggression with weapons to stop violent criminals should not be handling:

1) mental health

2) homeless

3) drug addiction

4) domestic violence

5) traffic stops

etc etc

They should be called to handle

1) robbery in progress

2) active shooters

etc

The Not police should be trained in deescalation and should be familiar with all the social resources necessary to help people in the community. The not police should not be armed

<comment><USER20> Unfortunately, items 1, 3, 4, and 5 are all extremely dangerous. The Not Police would be in grave danger. There is a reason that the Police Police are armed.

That guy on drugs could stab you, you could pull a car over and that person could have a gun, you could go to stop domestic violence and get attacked.

Police brutality goes up proportionately with violent crime in their area. In other words, the more police deal with very dangerous people all the time and the more their reactions become more aggressive to everyone.

It is no excuse for murder like what happened with Floyd, but there is a reason we don't send social workers out to domestic violence calls or drug calls...

Plus citizens have the right to own guns (which I am ever thankful for now with rioting breaking out across the country). Unarmed Not Police would be a joke.

<comment><USER21> I'm sure there is great data on police calls but from my experience with calling 911 social workers wouldn't really help. Earlier this year there was a homeless man waving a knife at pedestrians a few blocks from my house. I know this is a mental health issue and we need do do more for our homelesss - but I couldn't ask officers to deal with stuff like that on the regular with little or no protection.

I've also called 911 in the past when my house was burglarized, two men on a highway got into a fist fight after one's car hit the other, and once when a man was wandering into the middle of the highway trying to get himself run over. You could limit the number of guns but there are real issues that I think you'd want a well-equpied force for.

<comment><USER22> > Earlier this year there was a homeless man waving a knife at pedestrians a > few blocks from my house.

That's sort of the point. That's a situation that may require both an armed officer and a social worker. it's not to say that there is no situation that would require it in a heavily armed nation like the US but frequently it does not. In fact many would say sending heavily armed officers where it does not require it can escalate things, and affects how these officers view and police their communities.

</comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER23> When I see health experts saying we can have groups of up to 12 people outside BUT protests up to 100 people, it really does not look good for the credibility of these experts.

Nobody denies that the pandemic is/was a real thing. But at that point it has been politicized ad nauseum and this is bad.

It will for sure have an impact on how much people trust experts, and general trust in experts was already bad before this. But now nobody should dare blame anyone for not believing an expert after the sham we have all seen.

Very sad that the pandemic has stopped being about science but moved to being about politics. Good luck getting compliance if there is, god forbid, a second wave or another more deadly virus in the future.

<comment><USER24> Everything is politicized, especially that which affects the economy and elections. The pandemic will continue even if public health experts are not willing to go against the grain and admit protests will lead to more infections and more deaths. These experts may be succumbing to pressure and there is clearly backlash against non-woke voices within the left.

</comment></comment><comment><USER25> The comment thread here, and the national attitude more generally, is the literal embodiment of cognitive dissonance. Science and facts are only useful insofar as they are convenient to our ends.

I suppose, in light of the shortcomings of human nature, it would be a lot easier to make the point that needs to be made if we were dropping bombs on coronavirus victims and broadcasting the carnage instead of rolling them up into statistical output. Their crime, apparently, is dying in a way that isn't direct and emotionally resonant enough for other human beings to grasp the magnitude of it.

<comment><USER26> I think you're right that "science" and "data" are only believed when they align with one's views.

But people seem to care a lot more about coronavirus deaths than deaths from war, flu, air pollution, traffic accidents, cancer (since screenings are down since lockdown), etc, so I can't agree with you on the other point.

Let's not forget that the data is far from all collected, and the science is not settled, wrt either the true impact of the virus or the effectiveness of various responses to it. I don't think it's wise to assume that science will bear out any one particular point of view, once there is better data, more perspective, and a scientific consensus.

<comment><USER25> You're digressing from the core, indisputable truth: these protests, in the present environment, will result in a significant number of deaths. Sure we won't start to have a sense of just how many until a few more weeks have passed, but we _can_ say with relative certainty it will be " _significant_ ".

The reason people are dodging this is because it makes these protests morally indefensible, on balance. This is terribly inconvenient if you've entrenched yourself in a particular way of thinking and no longer wish to question it.

<comment><USER27> Are all the state-wide openings in May, the opening of casinos, and the festivities of Memorial Day Weekend, of which we are already seeing COVID impacts, more or less morally indefensible than the BLM protests?

When all these other non-protest gatherings of people were taking place, were you this outraged? If the answer is no: explain yourself.

<comment><USER25> Yes they are morally indefensible. Many of those decisions didn't make sense to me and yes I expressed outrage about it to friends.

But your point is also a straw man. For the most part, there are still prohibitions on large gatherings of people. These protests have been blessed as an exception. Why? Because the government's hand was forced by political expediency. In essence, the government has failed to protect the people from themselves.

And let me flip the question on you: why do we need to protest so urgently _now_ , during a global pandemic? Why can't it be postponed until after we've resolved that problem and can permit it to go about safely?

I'll answer that for you: BLM has found outsized effectiveness _because_ of coronavirus. Because people have more time, and are feeling less economically secure, and are more emotionally vulnerable. They were better primed to respond to the movement and organizers are capitalizing on that at the direct expense of human lives, even if that isn't obvious to them.

Worst of all, history suggests that these protests and the consequent loss of life will buy Black people next to nothing. Categorically the wrong solution to a very complex problem.

</comment></comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER28> The concerns are right but public assembly is critical in a democracy, and cannot be put on hold indefinitely. It's probably the most fundamental right in any civil society and with all these takes I have seen on twitter about COVID and the protests, a lot of people seem to seriously unerestimate the value that free assembly has.

Covid as bad as it is will be an issue of the near future, civil rights gains or losses will have an impact in decades to come.

<comment><USER29> The issue is the double standard with which some protestors were condemned while others were lauded based solely on which causes (and which classes of people) the commenters happened to politically support. It's transparently unprincipled, to the point of being a sad joke.

<comment><USER30> That's not a double standard. That's just a standard. When one group of people is holding signs that say "stop murdering people" and the other group is holding signs that say "I need a haircut," and you're mad that "the commenters" are not treating them the same, the problem is not with the commenters.

<comment><USER29> You're making my point. You politically support one side more than the other, right down to belittling the side you unsupport as "I need a haircut". Maybe I agree with you politically, but when arguments from principle pivot from one week to the next based on which way the politics point, it's not really about principle.

<comment><USER31> It's not belittling them - that was their argument.

<comment><USER29> That might have been what one sign said, but picking that as if it were "their argument", let alone the best argument, is sample bias and clearly intended to belittle. That's politics: build up your own side as much as possible, smear the other side as much as possible. If someone actually wanted to be fair, they'd reference a stronger case for protesting the lockdown, such as the economic pain it has inflicted and the case that it also leads to deaths, such as by suicide and addiction, as well as social ills like increased child abuse and domestic violence. I'm not trying to take that side, just pointing out that intellectual honesty is the first casualty of politics, just like truth is the first casualty of war.

</comment></comment></comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER32> The article's authors are losing sight of the original justification for the lockdowns: "flatten the curve" was about preventing hospitals from being overwhelmed.

Of course cases will increase when people leave their homes. But have the hospitals been overwhelmed in any of the states that started to reopen several weeks ago? No! In that case the lockdowns have served their purpose.

The authors of this article are arguing more from a pro-lockdown position than from an anti-virus position — they seem to care more about defending the lockdowns than they do about actually solving the problem, even though it's becoming obvious that new solutions, like partial reopening, are working.

<comment><USER33> In addition to preventing hospitals being overwhelmed, the lockdowns were intended to give us time to develop the infrastructure for adequate testing, tracing, and supportive isolation. With those things in place, we can re-open and still keep the virus in check.

If we don't have those things in place, the problem is not the re-opening, which was inevitable since indefinite lockdown and isolation is not sustainable anyway.

<comment><USER26> this seems like retcon. I never heard it before now, and there's not been agreement on the method or role of contact tracing in a free society. Am I going to be quarantined if some app says I got near a person who tested positive? That seems ludicrous. States are reopening without tracing or supportive isolation.

<comment><USER33> No, but you should self-isolate. And if you test positive, people you came into contact with should be notified.

And this isn't a retcon. I got TTSI from vihart's video which was based on this work published in April: [https://ethics.harvard.edu/covid- roadmap](https://ethics.harvard.edu/covid-roadmap)

</comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER34> Daily new deaths have been steadily falling even as states continue to ease or eliminate restrictions [0]: [https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/](https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/)

This article seems to completely ignore that, instead focusing on positive test results, even though the vast majority of infections are mild or even completely asymptomatic. If anything, America is giving up on the breathless projections of mass die off that aren't supported by reality.

<comment><USER35> Sort of. Florida has seen a consistent uptick in the last week. Some other states are seeing a bounce.

I will say that 100k+ deaths is nothing to treat so trivially.

<comment><USER26> Treatment of the coronavirus has been anything but trivial. The monetary cost per year of life saved has been out of line with that of any other intervention for any other disease or threat to human life.

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER36> Being an American (Naturalized), I am unable to understand where are we headed. It's often said that America always bounces back. That American spirit and innovativeness is unmatched and capable of overcoming any obstacles. However, the current environment feels surreal. We have had the most Covid infections and most deaths in the world. Mass protests against police brutality, being met with more police brutality. Widespread looting in the shadows of the protests. Toxic politics deeply dividing people. Sometimes I get calls from worried (and shocked) relatives living in other parts of world, inquiring about our well being and why things are so bad in America. Where are we headed relative to rest of the world? Is America going to be the leading light for the world again?

<comment><USER37> I think Biden should choose a moderate Republican as his VP. That is the most symbolic choice he could make that he is serious about bringing this country back together. It's just about the only thing he could do that would unite this country. Going further left will destroy this country, not because I disagree with the policies but because right now we are in a crossroads for this political divisiveness.

<comment><USER38> I used to halfway joke that the US needed a McCain Lieberman ticket.

But wow, yes, that'd be a good choice. Condoleezza Rice?

George W. Bush is eligible (90% jokingly). Biden and Bush would be malapropism gold for SNL.

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER39> It's tragic watching this play out. 4chan's /pol/ amongst many other racists love it. They don't have to do anything while everything implodes. They see Covid-19 as a nothing burger, and health experts giving these protestors a pass vindicates their belief. But if Covid-19 is not a nothing burger, then these protests will end up with many black people and other minorities sick and possibly dead. People on the alt-right have mostly avoided doing anything and are telling their side not to engage. Because as far as they are concerned, right now it's just leftists burning their own leftist cities down.

<comment><USER40> In re:

> They see Covid-19 as a nothing burger, and health experts giving these > protestors a pass vindicates their belief.

Four minutes later someone says just that:

> by admitting there are exceptions, [public health experts] reveal that they > were not being straight with us all along.

<comment><USER32> I never said I thought Covid-19 was a nothing-burger, and I have nothing to do with the right-wing online crazies.

Nevertheless it is clear that public health experts have not been straight with us. You don't need to be a right-wing loon to see that their open letter contradicts what they have been saying until now.

Why did you personally attack me and associate me with the 4chan nutters with no basis whatsoever?

<comment><USER40> > I never said I thought Covid-19 was a nothing-burger, and I have nothing to > do with the right-wing online crazies.

I never said you did.

> Nevertheless it is clear that public health experts have not been straight > with us.

Depends on the public health officials you listen to, eh?

> You don't need to be a right-wing loon to see that their open letter > contradicts what they have been saying until now.

I agree. Mass protests during a pandemic are irresponsible although understandable, in my opinion, and the open letter people are talking about in this thread sounds to me to be pretty irresponsible as well, although I haven't read it.

I just watched a bunch of videos of demonstrations happening today all over the world. While my heart soared a little voice in the back of my head was saying "...but covid is loving this..."

> Why did you personally attack me and associate me with the 4chan nutters > with no basis whatsoever?

I didn't attack you, I wasn't even responding to you. I was struck by the pattern match, that's all. I apologize for the offense, and wish you well.

</comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER41> Something odd I noticed in my local area is that for the most part all the protestors are wearing masks, yet people happily lounge around _inside_ restaurants without masks (and many times the staff themselves aren't wearing masks). I really feel like the protests are less of a vector than people think they are given this behavior.

Perhaps it's like the car accident paradox where streets that would seem more dangerous have less actual accidents, because people pay more attention when driving them.

<comment><USER42> AFAIK, we don't yet have a definitive conclusion on how effective the cotton masks that most people have actually are. we're pretty sure they're better than nothing, but that's about it. in my city, we've had thousands of people in a densely packed crowd marching on the interstate. they seem to have exhibited good discipline in wearing masks, but the masks would have to be _really_ effective for that to be less of an infection vector than tens of unmasked people gathering in restaurants at a time.

imo, arguing that the increased transmission risk is justified by the importance of the cause is reasonable. arguing that thousands of people gathering in the streets doesn't really move the needle for covid infections is a fantasy.

</comment></comment><comment><USER43> > Businesses are opening

Yeah. We never were going to be able to keep everything closed for much longer. There is a very anti-handout ideology here, and the amount of political will for more bailouts was dwindling.

> Protests...

Sorry about this one. There are more important issues that need solving right now, and momentum and timing are very important. Right now we're in a perfect storm where a large amount of people can protests. Day after day after day.

The only way we could have kept the pandemic at bay if it was the only thing in the news and on everyone's mind. And more important things came along.

<comment><USER26> is it just an ideology? At a certain point, you do have to actually work to make the economy spin. No economy, no money for healthcare. People die from no economy. So this is not an ideology so much as acceptance of reality.

</comment></comment><comment><USER44> > The virus has not mapped neatly onto American political narratives, either. > While some questions remain about their accounting, Georgia and > Florida—where leaders opened up early and residents seemed relatively > defiant of public-health advice—have seen relatively flat numbers, while > California, which took a more conservative approach, has seen cases grow. > The state most poised for major trouble seems to be Arizona, where the > outbreak is spreading very quickly. Not only is the state (which lifted its > stay-at-home order on May 16) setting new records for positive tests and > people in the hospital, but the percentage of tests that are coming back > positive is also growing. So much for warm weather and sunshine alone > stamping out viral transmission, as some had hoped: Phoenix saw only a > single day's high under 90 degrees during May. The state's age demographics > also haven't played an obvious role: The state is slightly younger than the > U.S. as a whole.

This may be the most striking thing at the moment. The pandemic isn't evenly distributed in the US. Several factors compound the problem, including:

1\. the time between the enactment of policy and the consequences varies

2\. there may be an underlying seasonal component that's modulating stats in certain states

3\. states show varying degrees of commitment to complete, accurate reporting of test results and rigor

4\. positivity rates (# positive results vs # of tests) are rarely, if ever reported so it's nearly impossible to assign weight to increases or decreases in cases/fatalities

Throw this all together and you get one big, fat mess. It's nearly impossible to figure out exactly what's happening with respect to viral spread or why. National-level efforts to track or contain the spread are weak at best.

We should all hope that point (2) is not a major factor in this. If it is, a bigger, badder sequel of the early spring, starting around fall seems inevitable.

</comment><comment><USER45> I support the protests, and believe they can be done safely, but we can't forget about the virus. A quick googling gives me numbers between 300 and 1000 people dying of police violence per year. Call it 1k-2k per year. If we eliminate 50-100 years of that, we match what coronavirus has done in a couple months.

However, places are starting to relax the shelter-in-place rules already, so people going out now isn't comparable to people going out a month or two ago.

I do wish it weren't an either/or. Protest with your mask, and keep distance. To most people I know, this is how the protests they've been to have gone, so that's great and we should stop giving them shit, the same way as we shouldn't label the whole movement by the actions of some looters.

<comment><USER46> Is that 300-1000 unjustified deaths, or does it also include situations where the use of deadly force may have been reasonable?

<comment><USER47> [https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/investigations/polic...](https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/investigations/police- shootings-database/)

Filtering for "2019, black, unarmed" you get:

 _15 people shot and killed by police match your filters (less than 1%)_

Change that to "2015" and you get:

 _38 people shot and killed by police match your filters (1%)_

<comment><USER48> A similar amount die from tasers, then you have ones that die from chokeholds etc like Floyd, and then you have the ones that "die in police custody".

People are also marching for deaths caused by other citizens that were first swept under the rug, like Ahmaud Arbery.

</comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER49> This is a pretty heavily politicized article for something that is marked as "Science" by the publishers. The authors have a clear political agenda that bleeds through onto the page.

<comment><USER14> It's from the Atlantic. Of course it has a political agenda. That's why people read it.

<comment><USER49> True. I guess I was hoping that they would at least avoid pushing the agenda in something that they themselves mark as "Science".

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER50> We now have a big unplanned experiment. We will see within the next few days if the protests lead to significant spikes. Personally, I think that the virus probably doesn't spread that easily outdoors, so while we will see a spike, it will be small enough that it will only make the case for opening up outdoor activities sooner. Fingers crossed.

<comment><USER51> I'm not sure if this is a big unplanned experiment any more than states already opening up and existing protests for opening up have already been doing.

</comment></comment><comment><USER52> The weirdest thing to me is that we have people protesting for fairly deontological reasons - i.e. a reasonable 'killing is wrong', while being ruthlessly utilitarian - 'covid deaths are a price we must be willing to pay for reform'. Interesting!

<comment><USER53> Having your community brutalized by the very organization that is supposed to provide protection is very different from having members of the community dying of disease. Both are extremely awful, but at least the disease doesn't seem to be trying to undermine civil society.

<comment><USER54> Claiming that the police are trying to "undermine civil society" is disingenuous.

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER55> It seems like the coronavirus precaution phase is over, and I think it's somewhat political.

A week ago, a Facebook friend of mine posted a passionate post about the importance of wearing masks. This weekend, the same friend posts a photo sitting around with friends, sans-mask.

This same friend is very politically active. Honestly, some of his actions seem linked to whatever the current hot-topic is. I think there's been a shift in emphasis, hence the lack of caring for the mask this week.

</comment><comment><USER56> We had large BLM demonstrations yesterday here in Germany. Demonstrators did not follow Corona virus rules (compared to e.g. fridays for future). If COVID-19 spreads in those circumstances (outside, mostly with masks, but close contact + chanting), this'll have been the last of those demonstrations here.

<comment><USER57> Are black people in Germany especially abused by the police?

<comment><USER58> There are few black people in Germany. They are racially profiled, probably just as much as middle-eastern looking people, but excessive police violence against them is rare, and usually properly investigated and punished.

In Germany, much of the ire around unpunished excess police force is around riot response squads who regularly use excessive force against leftist protests (anti-G20, anticapitalism/Occupy, anarchists), especially if some of the protesters turn to vandalism, start setting fires or attack the police.

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER59> So is Europe. Apparently fueled by the protests in the US there have been demonstrations in Berlin, Paris, Amsterdam, Madrid, Barcelona and other cities. Not only are they protesting against racism but it seems like there are quite a few also protesting against the lockdown measures.

Once the weather gets better again you can bet that all along the European coasts hoardes or people will be ignoring the laxer provisions. In fact, they already are.

Europe (at least Western Europe) is also giving up on the pandemic. At this rate there's going to be a second wave. I have no idea if this will create better conditions for the virus to mutate and possibly herald a third wave keeping us in until 2022.

<comment><USER60> What I can't even begin to understand is why would there not be a second wave? Nothing biological has changed. Prevention measures have been mostly a temporary lockdown which obviously has a extremely high cost in money and goodwill.

<comment><USER61> Sometimes a virus will mutate to become less deadly. Could that be happening right now with COVID-19? Maybe. Judge for yourself...

[https://justthenews.com/politics- policy/coronavirus/doctors-...](https://justthenews.com/politics- policy/coronavirus/doctors-around-world-say-covid-19-losing-its-potency- becoming-less)

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER62> I'm afraid it was obvious US would not be able to deal with this. Powerful people have lost all sense of empathy. Their power is much more important to them than the lives of some poor people. The, rational, social darwinistic ideology has its grip firmly in the minds of Americans. I'm not even talking about the obvious culprits. I'm talking about us, we are obsessed with money and consumerism. We think optics is more than reality, We talk about political identity, where the obvious problem is class. We are shattered to tiny pieces fighting each other while a handful of people (not just white, mind you) keep their power.

Sad

</comment><comment><USER63> Its nuts how big our societies have grown where hundreds of thousands could die and it wouldn't really matter (assuming you were willing to be a complete psycho about it). I really just can't see it affecting my life

</comment><comment><USER64> People, and not only in America, is just giving up on their hope that the governments would really start fighting pandemic, like produce tests, implement contact tracing, etc. The lockdown isn't a pandemic fighting tool, it was just a timeout to give governments the opportunity to start doing necessary things. Well, it hasn't happened and doesn't seems to in the future.

</comment><comment><USER65> The point of the lockdown is to prevent overloading the medical infrastructure. No one agreed to stop being around each other until the virus is gone. Since the overloading doesn't seem to be happening no one cares anymore.

</comment><comment><USER66> There's every reason we should see a good increase in cv19 spreading, because there is no reason for it not to. Washington State's daily number on Sunday, June 7 is 450 new pos cases, [1] which was last seen on the first of April. 2 months later coming back to early April numbers. [2]. We are testing 50% more per day (about 4k/day in early April, 6k/day now). Even though we increased testing by 50%, it was only recently that WA state got daily pos counts matching 2 months ago.

My opinion is that standing up for the current abhorrance of police violence connected to BLM is worth some endangering behavior on their own choice (i.e. going out in crowds, because it's a multi-100 year problem), whereas getting a haircut is not the same, but I see why that's contentious. 1000 more people getting a positive case that wouldn't have otherwise will lead to a few deaths, and they will spread it and kill a few more. It's personally horrible to just write down that fact and not know what to do with it.

1\. [https://bing.com/covid/local/washington_unitedstates](https://bing.com/covid/local/washington_unitedstates)

2\. [https://www.doh.wa.gov/Emergencies/NovelCoronavirusOutbreak2...](https://www.doh.wa.gov/Emergencies/NovelCoronavirusOutbreak2020COVID19/DataDashboard)

<comment><USER67> The haircut comments drive me up the wall, particularly if you know someone who owns a small business and their accompanying struggles. Economic money movement was stalled, which can have an enormous impact on livelihood. While I can absolutely understand being critical of when protestors wanted things to re-open, it shows a deliberate attempt at being unable to empathize.

<comment><USER66> I am empathetic with those who will lose small businesses. I have someone in my family personally affected.

I think the potential customers who wanted to get a haircut or their nails done were making a less important request than the person who is losing their livelihood. That is a different issue than the impact on the small business owner who is devastated by this. Someone in my family is facing financial devastation because they work in the wedding industry and all weddings are of course on hold. This person could lose everything. Yet I don't want my or anyone else's old relatives to die because of more spreading. Also my niece has a job in a restaurant that isn't open any more - they tried to open but not enough customers came.

With the people going to protests, we are certain to have increased infections in a week or two.

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER11> San Mateo County health officer: _" The third modification of the shelter in place order is being made on 6/1/20\. These modifications are being made in attempt to strike a balance. They are an attempt to find a way to increase the immunity of the population (in public health terms, this is called "herd immunity") slowly and methodically, while minimizing premature death, with equity in mind, while not overloading the healthcare system, and minimizing economic damage. Many of these considerations work in opposite directions."_[1]

The current US death rate is about 1,000 per day, and that probably won't go down much until there's a vaccine or until 70% of the US population has had the disease. This is a "bury the dead and go on" situation. The US hasn't faced one of those since WWII.

Meanwhile, don't bunch up, get good masks, and wear them. The mask supply situation has improved, although too many of them are junk. The US could probably beat this thing with enough N95 respirators.

[1] [https://www.smchealth.org/health-officer-statements-and- orde...](https://www.smchealth.org/health-officer-statements-and-orders)

<comment><USER60> N95 is overkill. You likely bring down the R0 below one if everyone wears just cloth masks. Less covid droplets in shared air. I still don't see how will public transport for example resume in the next year. My bus was always packed like sardines and couldn't fit everyone in it at the stop

<comment><USER11> N95 protects you. Cheapo masks protect other people. That's only useful with a much higher percentage of mask usage than observed in the US.

Think this through. 50% use masks, 5% are spreading the disease. Interact with 100 people over a period of time.

\- Masks which protect others: (0.95)^50 chance of non-exposure = 0.6%. 92% of population exposed.

\- Masks which protect you: 50% of population exposed.

This is oversimplified, but wearing masks which protect others just doesn't do much.

<comment><USER68> If a common mask protects you 50%, then that is a huge win both as an individual and as a group. Saying Assuming 0% in your calculations is biased.

I think your word "cheapo" is derogatory. Are people just being cheap when they don't buy an N95 mask?

Saying "cheapo" masks only protect others is an incorrect conclusion: your language is also misleading.

<comment><USER11> Anything which leaks when you inhale doesn't protect you. If you take a deep breath and don't feel the mask pulled against your face, it's not working.

There's now a huge supply of poor to useless masks available, many with phony approval markings.[1] That's most of what's being sold on Amazon. It's moderately hard to make a mask which seals tightly, doesn't offer too much resistance to breathing, and filters to N95 standards.

A real N95 mask (3M 8210) is about $1.25 if you can get it. Some of the fakes are much more expensive.

[1] [https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-files-charges-against- chine...](https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-files-charges-against- chinese-n95-mask-maker-11591395929)

<comment><USER68> Exactly.

The science shows a well fitted "cheapo" mask can protect you better than a poorly fitted N95 mask. Even a surgical mask provides a little protection: if they provide 25% protection and 50% reduction in transmission, and everyone uses them, that is a huge reduction in R0.

Not everyone can invest the time required to learn how to source a real N95 mask.

My impression is you are trying to educate the uninformed, while sweeping under the carpet important nuances. I'm sure that isn't your intention, but that is how it comes across to me.

</comment></comment></comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER69> >This should not be confused with a permissive stance on all gatherings, particularly protests against stay-home orders.

Some protests are allowed but not all? Why?

</comment><comment><USER70> >These numbers all reflect infections that likely began before this week of protest.

If I were a machiavellian populist facist president of the USA I would ignore this reality and immediately start blaming the protests for increased case incidence of SARS-II. I don't think this ends soon, in fact I suspect this political fight will get worse before it gets better.

</comment><comment> tuna-piano I wish our scientists would be completely apolitical and stay within their realm of expertise when speaking publicly.

For the non-factual topics, such as whether there an epidemic of unjustified police violence against black people (the data does not clearly show that there is - and in fact imo shows that there is not), stating their opinion on the political topic means their scientific opinion loses credibility immediately for significant percentages of the population.

Why do any scientists talking about the spread of virus need to say that they support the cause? When they say that they do support the cause, why should the 40% of the country who voted for Trump and watches Fox News still follow their scientific advise?

I can't help but look back on the anti-lockdown protests and sympathize with those people's skepticism and animosity toward scientists.[1]

It feels to me as the hard sciences have been inflicted with the same political ideology that has dominated the arts+social sciences and that the scientists are scared to share their scientific opinions in an apolitical way. The same reason that your dishsoap company emailed you to let you know their political beliefs.

I remember seeing photos during the anti-lockdown protests of medical workers standing in front of cars: [https://api.time.com/wp- content/uploads/2020/04/denver-count...](https://api.time.com/wp- content/uploads/2020/04/denver-counter-protest-health01.jpg?w=800&quality=85)

And a few weeks later photos spreading virally of medical works supporting protests: [https://imagesvc.meredithcorp.io/v3/mm/image?url=https%3A%2F...](https://imagesvc.meredithcorp.io/v3/mm/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic.onecms.io%2Fwp- content%2Fuploads%2Fsites%2F20%2F2020%2F06%2F03%2Fnurses-blm-protest.jpg)

It feels to me that in much of America, politics are not allowed to be public unless they align with liberal views.

Is there any reason to have renewed confidence in these influential people and institutions?

[1][https://twitter.com/MattWalshBlog/status/1267281387486412801](https://twitter.com/MattWalshBlog/status/1267281387486412801)

</comment><comment><USER71> I think that, even after other things are opened up, they should continue to ban business travel and commercial airplane travel for some more time. This will mitigate international spreading (I don't how by how much, but it will help a bit). More testing would also be helpful. This way, you might have better data to work with.

</comment><comment><USER72> Yes, and the reason why is unfortunately articles like these which only compare US states to each other or the US to Europe. If you look in these places, there is no good solution. But all we have to do is look across the Pacific Ocean.

There are many Asian countries aggressively stopping the virus without lockdowns. Their citizens are leading fairly normal lives right now except many still must wear masks everywhere. They have achieved this by contact tracing every single case and stopping all new outbreaks. But the US is still trying to learn how to do contact tracing, and without federal leadership on this it is unclear if the US will be able to get proper contact tracing working.

</comment><comment><USER73> Trevor Bedford (Associate Professor in the Department of Epidemiology at the University of Washington) noted today that the protests will add 200-1100 deaths per day of protests: [https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1269533303536664576](https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1269533303536664576).

Mapping Police Violence ([https://mappingpoliceviolence.org/](https://mappingpoliceviolence.org/)) notes that police killed 1098 people in 2019 in the US. Per the Washington Post, the figure is 1043 but that's specifically for shootings (which covers almost all officer involved deaths): [https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/investigations/polic...](https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/investigations/police- shootings-database/). And in all likelihood, most of those situations were handled properly and professionally and the deaths were justified (without wrongdoing on the police's part).

So we've just taken on far more undeserved deaths due to irresponsible protesting and rioting than the very brutality we were outraged about in the first place! How was this even allowed? It is completely irrational to permit these protests, and to tolerate these super spreader events given the harsh restrictions we placed on our lives in response to COVID-19.

I cannot believe that healthcare professionals and public health officials are lining up to excuse the protests. This, just a couple weeks after they were all criticizing moderates/conservatives who wanted to see orders relaxed. The healthcare professionals and public officials who've jumped on the train of rationalizing their flip flopping are simply too afraid to admit that they're willing to tolerate the risks for activities and causes _they_ align with, but they still want to force _others_ to make sacrifices with the activities that they value. In other words, one set of rules for them, another set of rules for everyone else. I've lost faith in our elected officials, public institutions, healthcare providers, and academic bodies as a result of this hypocrisy and failure of logic.

A more fair and just handling of COVID would be to let every individual assess the risks and benefits of their activities themselves, as individuals, and let them go about their way. If a business wants to stay open, so be it. If a customer wants to visit a business, so be it. Those who are risk averse and afraid of exposure can choose to deal with that risk by impacting only their own lives by sheltering themselves.

</comment><comment><USER74> Most people who I talk to don't really care about it anymore because they are convinced that the statistics are inflated as a direct result of Hospital administrators fighting for more funding.

I think for every 100 covid deaths, it's probably closer to 1-5 actual covid deaths and the rest just get conflated.

</comment><comment><USER75> No, not giving up. Just reprioritized. All I think we've proven is that a large percentage of the population is more comfortable risking a infection and far less comfortable with the police violence.

There's nothing in here about disregarding recommendations from epidemiologists. It's about saying enough is enough on a persistent threat, not an acute one.

<comment><USER76> > a large percentage of the population is more comfortable risking a infection > and far less comfortable with the police violence

The chances of experiencing life-changing injury or death from either are vanishingly small. Too bad we can't get people this excited about obeying traffic regulations.

<comment><USER77> Unlike people, not all deaths are created equal (in my opinion). What I mean is: a death caused by systematic oppression/racism (especially from an entity whose core purpose is to "serve and protect") is in some deontological sense _worse_ than a death resulting from e.g. a car accident or even a virus. Some things defy utilitarian calculus.

Also, you have to consider that there is widespread and life changing _psychological injury_ (trauma) inflicted on minorities from years, decades, centuries of systemic injustice along every axis of life. Imagine being a child and growing up with a worldview that you and your loved ones are in constant danger (from people that are supposed to protect you, no less) based solely on the color of your skin. I keep thinking of the powerful words of George Floyd's friend Stephen Jackson in this clip ([https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=-0JdWfUJYYU](https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=-0JdWfUJYYU)):

> _"We, as black men, have seen a lot of stuff as far as people being murdered > and taken from us, right? But now, not only it's been seen by us and our > brothers, but it's been seen by our children now. So I'm sitting there > watching this and my daughter...my daughter tells me, 'Dad I can't leave > you, cause I seen what happened to your friend, and I think you need me.' My > daughter is 6 years old. For my daughter to see that, and tell me that I > need her at 6, imagine the pain and frustration that's in my mind right > now"._

<comment><USER76> I've been a multi-sigma outlier my whole life. So, in a sense, I can relate. But in another sense, I envy the kind of community cohesiveness I have witnessed in the black community. I never had that kind of support when I was growing up. Always alone to deal with whatever aggressors crossed my path.

In my teenage years, I worked as a low status laborer in shops where I was one of a very few white people among mostly blacks. Most were indifferent to me. A few (all Christians) were saints, really, and I remember them kindly to this day. And a few, including my crew boss, were "unfriendly" at best, and in retrospect, racist as all hell. I don't particularly blame them, but I cannot condone this sort of behavior either.

I sympathize with those who suffer. We all suffer. And we all deserve such sympathy. Suffering, really, is the nature of being alive in our reality.

Is there more to do along this road? Yes. Are the killings and maimings we have seen over the last week in any way justified or "worth it"? No.

</comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER78> Overblown stay at home / quarantine measures are the biggest harm done to the citizens of (Western) countries, since their last respective big wars.

The damage is and will continue to be immeasurable. How will the years of life we saved measure up to the years of life and quality of life we have ruined? We will never know.

</comment><comment><USER79> America has ADD.

</comment><comment><USER80> So no one is going to talk about how the Model is a mathematical model which follows Bayes Theorem in it's core. It updates it's priors based on new evidence presented every day.

The whole point of the Model is to detect things which are uncertain by nature. Being wrong is not bad, it's good TBH.

CMIIW.

</comment><comment><USER81> Good question that the media seems to be avoiding. I'll be watching our infection rates closely over the next 2 weeks and have some real questions about everything if they don't spike.

</comment><comment><USER82> Why shouldn't they? People were browbeaten for having the audacity to want to return to work. Now politicians are out marching shoulder to shoulder with thousands of other people.

We also were told that Georgia was going to be a disaster for reopening too soon and that has not come to pass.

It's good to know that "believe science" and "stay home stay safe" are completely negotiable based on what is politically expedient.

<comment><USER83> The "open letter" signed by 1200 experts stating that protesting was no risk, except for protests against the lockdown itself, was also mind boggling in its audacity.

<comment><USER68> "One in every 1,000 Black men and boys can expect to be killed by police in this country". If we presume average years of life lost per black person's death is 50 years, then Covid is less deadly.

To lower risk, black people could stay at home and wait for better times...

<comment><USER84> Those numbers seem to be vastly more than reported numbers of police killings. Whom are you quoting? Because I like to keep track of who makes such exaggerated claims.

<comment><USER68> This references the source data: [https://theconversation.com/police-are-more- likely-to-kill-m...](https://theconversation.com/police-are-more-likely-to- kill-men-and-women-of-color-121158)

It says that between 2013 and 2018, about 96 in 100,000 (approx 1 in 1000) African American men were killed by police in the U.S.

Death from Covid is also lifetime risk.

It is a commonly reported statistic if you want to find other publications that say the same thing. Did you try googling for it — for example google: "1000 black men and boys" police

</comment></comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER85> It's not just America. Here in Ontario, at least in my city, the lockdown in mostly over. Social distancing is the mildest suggestion in the parks, virtually nonexistent in many businesses. Pizza slice joints, grocers, most things are pretty normal, outside legal orders against work.

It seems to me that there is U.S. tribe that worships the lockdowns despite the evidence, for no articulable reason other than a hatred for the President, or a proximity to the culture surrounding that hatred.

We have been delivered a blessing, in the reality of the matter, and it seems like some people are more upset that the good news demonstrates the hubris of their attempts to control the outbreak.

</comment><comment><USER86> We're glad if we're still around after the election in November...

</comment><comment><USER87> fwiw the question mark is not present in the original article.

</comment><comment><USER88> It's interesting (to me) that centuries ago, plagues could last for __decades __and the rapidly-declining populations had to put up with this. Obviously they didn 't have the scientific knowledge that we have now.

 _However_ , although we have more knowledge now, we don't yet have a vaccine, nor a political system that puts people first instead of profits, so might we find ourselves in the same situation as our ancestors? Sure, we also have the ability to complain to more people, more quickly, but that's about it.

</comment><comment><USER89> There is nothing much Govt can do; You're on your own; [https://masks4all.co](https://masks4all.co)

</comment><comment><USER90> Reads like a political hit piece

</comment><comment><USER91> Everyone is giving up on the containment strategy of shutting down all public spaces, some do it slowly to give the illusion of control, where as other simply open up and let people sort it out on their own but i doubt you will find a single state/nation waiting on the magical vaccine(that might not arrive) that fixed the issues with zero side effects to start returning to normal.

Some of that is due to the fact that the number seen in context([https://ourworldindata.org/causes-of-death#what-do-people- di...](https://ourworldindata.org/causes-of-death#what-do-people-die-from)) are not as extreme as it was feared/hyped, and that the containment measures were to little to actually stop the pandemic and never designed with that goal in mind.

</comment><comment><USER92> Not a surprise, COVID19 is pretty soft compared to the historic pandemics. I'm actually suprised that this continued for so long, I gave the lockdowns 4 week, but I guess the media propaganda blessed it with longer life.

Just to clarify about Covid: -The highest deathrate from it is around 1%, CDC reports 0.30 lately. -Hits predominantly the old parts of the population -The death comes in a normal way - pneumonia -> death, nothing like the bubonic plague or ebola symtoms

<comment><USER93> Link to source? Current data on cdc is 1,920,904 cases and 109,901 deaths which is 5.7% (and it doesn't appear to be changing much). That's about 20 times higher than your figure of 0.3%.

<comment><USER94> Just to those who downvote - if someone poses a question or argument which you think is easily refuted, by downvoting or removing that question you remove the opportunity for anyone else with the same argument to learn something.

And maybe this is part of the problem with the whole covid discussion - labeling all these simple arguments from all sides as "wot a moron!" instead of presenting them clearly for people to learn from.

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER39> Judging by how health experts have given protestors a pass to forgo social distancing , yeah, I can say it's all in the toilet now.

<comment><USER95> I haven't seen anything to that effect. Care to share?

<comment><USER39> [https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/05/health/health-care-open- lette...](https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/05/health/health-care-open-letter- protests-coronavirus-trnd/index.html)

[https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/06/04/public- hea...](https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/06/04/public-health- protests-301534)

[https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/1288-public-health- pro...](https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/1288-public-health- professionals-disgrace-their-profession/)

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER96> Not an American, but seeing the current divide in the US makes me curious. What happens if Trump wins again in 2020?

</comment><comment><USER97> My read of the CDCs numbers [0] seems to suggest to me that the CDC thinks 25M in the US have HAD the virus. It's also likely that the people willing to protest probably are among those that already caught it, so infection spreading may actually be minimal.

0 [https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning- scena...](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning- scenarios.html)

<comment><USER98> That's a big gamble.

<comment><USER97> Yeah I'm not totally convinced myself of the CDCs numbers, and there's probably going to be consequences in a couple weeks.</comment></comment></comment>


The C++ preprocessor doesn't understand anything about C++, including templates - <AUTHOR> https://devblogs.microsoft.com/oldnewthing/20200508-52/?p=103735 <comment><USER2> > The C and C++ preprocessors are like the Windows command prompt batch > language: They implement a very simple language that people still use for > some reason.

I can tell you exactly why I use batch scripts—they're the only type of script that will run on double click in a stock Windows install.

Powershell scripts won't by default for security reasons, but for some reason for batch it's okay. So I use batch.

<comment><USER3> Because tons of legacy applications rely on it and it would be a major outcry to change them to the way Powershell works.

Locking down batch files, vbs and js scripts can be easily done at AD level and let people be pissed off with IT instead.

<comment><USER2> Okay, but then Microsoft needn't act surprised when people use batch. And security-wise, I have to question whether that's really a useful outcome versus letting Powershell scripts run by default.

<comment><USER3> Yeah, but it is hardly different than the "curl | sh" fashion I guess.

Here how to disable it, [https://www.computerhope.com/issues/ch001005.htm](https://www.computerhope.com/issues/ch001005.htm)

</comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER4> We've come across this problem. The major testing frameworks seem to rely heavily on macros for tests. In particular, we were struggling to handle tests of thrown exceptions, as we couldn't trivially capture the result in a variable and place that inside the macro instead. The most versatile solution we found was to use a function pointer, so that the templating wasn't required when the function was called.

<comment><USER5> If you want the name of a variable in eg. an assert you need the # operator unless you require the programmer to manually write the name as a string.

<comment><USER6> You could also

1) parse the source file

2) find the debug info and read it

3) hack the compiler to do this for you

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER7> The preprocessor is a really horrible hack of a macro system. I wish we could get rid of it and replace it with something sensible, but I doubt that will ever happen.

<comment><USER3> In C++ there is very little that we still need it for.

Even for conditional compilation I have always been a fan of using module_os_arch.cpp than dealing with pre-processor spaghetti.

The tools are there, the problem is getting people to use them instead of doing C like coding, assuming access to C++17/20 compilers.

As for C, well I don't have high hopes that when WG14 doesn't care about improving security, they will ever do anything regarding the pre-processor, specially since it is such a crucial part of C development.

<comment><USER8> > I have always been a fan of using module_os_arch.cpp

Oh no, I found that to work very very poorly. It's an antipatterns because architectures change, and that you can't cover all architectures.

Not only for my own software (I've maintained portable open source for decades across many architectures), but also huge frustration when porting software to a new (for that software) architecture.

Examples:

The software should not care if it's "linux" or "freebsd", you care if getpwnam_r is the three or four argument version. When one OS changes (or admin tweaks it) to the POSIX compliant API by default, what do you do then?

OpenBSD is API wise close to FreeBSD. So now I should find all files named . __freebsd_._ and make a copy to _openbsd_, forking the code, if I port to OpenBSD?

What about Debian kFreeBSD? You don't have all of these OSs, so just test features, not OS.

<comment><USER9> I think the general idea is simply that you don't use #ifdef but instead move the conditional compilation logic to the build script / build system. Of course you should group in files in a way that avoids redundancy.

This is the way I'm going about it at least, even though I assume there might be complex situations where the boilerplate isn't warranted and it's better to put all the variants in a single file and use the preprocessor to determine which alternative to compile.

Like you say in the end, test features (or maybe _standards support_ ), not too-specific things like OS or distribution.

<comment><USER8> > the general idea is simply that you don't use #ifdef but instead move the > conditional compilation logic to the build script / build system.

Yes, I entirely agree. But do NOT split it into what OS or architecture it is, like what I was replying to said.

</comment></comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER10> Just a PSA, but if the parenthesis solution doesn't work for you, you can define a COMMA macro and use it there (while everyone yells at you).

</comment><comment><USER11> Macros are inscrutable garbage and a sorry hack.</comment>


Latest Skype update for MAC axes call history - <AUTHOR> http://forum.skype.com/index.php?showtopic=797057

<comment><AUTHOR> Skype Board Meeting Exec: "Why would anyone want a detailed call history in communication software they use every day. Meh. That's interface overload. Axe it!"</comment>


Hacki.ng - <AUTHOR> http://hacki.ng

<comment><USER2> Domain selling is a long game. In order to make any money you'll be waiting a long time for someone to come to you, who is desperate for the name. If you want to offload it asap, don't expect to make much more than you paid for it.

<comment><AUTHOR> Thanks

</comment></comment><comment><USER3> So, you're selling the domain and advertising that on HN? WHY?

<comment><AUTHOR> Why? I am sorry sir.

</comment></comment><comment><USER4> Already saw this link weeks before.</comment>


Odroid-U3: A quad-core 1.7GHz ARM single-board computer for $59 - <AUTHOR> http://hardkernel.com/main/products/prdt_info.php?g_code=G138733896281

<comment><USER2> I have one of these, and there are a couple of notable things I found out while setting it up.

* It has CEC support, which is rare among similar devices. (The only other one I know is RPi. Thanks for nothing Ouya.)

* The extra CPU and RAM is fantastic. The little guy flies along. I was happily compiling things on it at quite reasonable speeds.

* The eMMC option is pretty cool, but be careful because their MicroSD adapter is pretty finicky (it wouldn't work on my Macbook, did work on my Mac Mini running Linux)

* It has a terribly annoying blinking blue light that can't be turned off and is brighter than the sun. I put some tape over it and felt briefly like macgyver.

* Nothing except for XBMC supports hardware video decoding. That means if you want to use VLC or something, too bad (for now anyway).

* Android on it was just about useless, but it's neat to have it as an option.

* There are a bunch of proprietary blobs and versions of things that need to be installed on the device for it to work. In practice, this isn't really a problem because this is all done for you in the stock image.

* XBMC was still pretty laggy on Ubuntu, and couldn't play video without skipping. Apparently it's better on Debian. Nobody seems to understand why this is. Apparently it's blazing fast on Android.

* The devs are insanely active, both in pushing code and on the forums. I say devs, I think it's one guy who never sleeps.

All told, I'm currently not using it for XBMC (holding out for the Ubuntu situation being fixed), but I am running other stuff on it that was taxing the memory and CPU of my Pi, so I'm pretty happy with that. It doesn't have anything like the plug-it-in-now-it-works experience of Raspbmc.

I found myself going down a dark and terrible road of alternate mali drivers, Xorg munging and running es2gears over and over again. If you're considering doing that, don't do it. You will achieve only regret.

<comment><USER3> > It has a terribly annoying blinking blue light that can't be turned off

Did you check /sys/class/leds/ ?

<comment><USER2> Whoa, that's great. Thanks!

For some reason I could only find forum posts saying it couldn't be turned off, but searching for that specific path says it works: [http://forum.odroid.com/viewtopic.php?f=77&t=3377](http://forum.odroid.com/viewtopic.php?f=77&t=3377)

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER4> I have an ODROID-XU which is a 8 core (in theory) 32 bit ARM chip. A few things I've learned along the way:

* You need to get a serial cable. The XU required a strange serial cable (ie. NOT the usual 3.3V CP2102).

* You'll need a lot of other stuff to make ARM usable: at a minimum: a high quality SD-card, SSD or eMMC; and a monitor which can handle all of DisplayPort, DVI, HDMI (since you never know which one will work, if any).

* ODROID kernel support is terrible. You'll get a kernel which works, but nothing is upstreamed or developed in the open so forget about ongoing support or updates.

* Everyone who's serious about ARM is waiting for 64 bit to become available. 32 bit hardware just isn't that interesting.

Lots more on my blog: [http://rwmj.wordpress.com/?s=ARM](http://rwmj.wordpress.com/?s=ARM)

<comment><USER5> _You 'll need a lot of other stuff to make ARM usable...Everyone who's serious about ARM is waiting for 64 bit to become available_

Huh? What does the processor core have to do with any of these details? There are plenty of usable ARM SoCs out there in real products doing real work. Running a media center shouldn't be the criteria for a 'usable' system.

I'd be more scared about the amount of developer documentation available for the Exynos, or what Samsung's roadmap is for the chip. If you want to play with one, cool. But would you design a 10-year product with it?

Go with a Freescale iMX board if you want a usable 32-bit ARM Cortex-A8/A9 with decent documentation, available Linux drivers, and people that can help online. You will never get mainline kernel for devices like these, so don't bother asking. But Freescale at least has a git repository available and it's well maintained.

My personal favorites are the SABRE Lite boards from Boundary Devices and the Wandboard:

[http://boundarydevices.com/products/sabre-lite- imx6-sbc/](http://boundarydevices.com/products/sabre-lite-imx6-sbc/)

[http://www.wandboard.org/](http://www.wandboard.org/)

<comment><USER6> Is designing 10-year products really a thing any more? I can't think of any device that I use practically that is that old. I think the only places that you will want 10-year products anymore are space, implant, and undersea/underground/tracking applications. I'm not saying it is a good thing, as it leads to this "disposable tech" mindset, but it seems like that may be the reality of it. OTOH +1 wandboard and iMX in general. I wish the Novena were a little less expensive, but I can't blame bunnie for wanting to err on the side of making quality hackable goods.

<comment><USER7> Everything that _isn 't_ consumer electronics has longer lifecycles. B2B customers aren't as flexible: it's not a question of throwing out your smartphone every 2 years and buying a new one, as soon as your action is multiplied across 1000+ devices everything takes much longer. You might spend an entire year doing the national rollout, and once you've done that you don't want to do it again if at all possible.

If there's any kind of qualification, tracking, auditing, or compliance issue everything will take much longer again.

<comment><USER6> I'm not sure this is true. I see plenty of products that have 1k+ rollouts more frequently. Maybe some businesses aren't sophisticated enough to do that, but those are the large, slow businesses of the herd that will get picked off by faster movers. That's why healthcare, defense & education are popular industries to enter right now, because many of the entrenched players can't keep up with the game. There is _no_ intrinsic reason that b2b should be different from b2c. I bet the old guard's lobbyists and capital can only last for so long.

</comment></comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER8> All these tiny board SoC's are fine and dandy, but as long as they do not have a better I/O (i.e. more bandwidth, read gigabit ethernet speeds) than the RPi; there's no real advantage IMO.

      * You can already output HD with the RPi
      * You can use (some) codecs at an useful speed (no need for more GHz)
      * It's cheap
      * It uses almost no power
      * You have useful (physical) IO
      * (fill in what you like about the RPi)

So what does that leave with the alternatives? More RAM and more processing power. But of what use is it, when you're still limited how fast you can bring data you want to crunch on in and out of the system only at a slow pace?

And if you need a lot of processing power but have only little data; I'm tempted to say that such a small system is the wrong choice anyway.

<comment><USER9> What baffles me is there is a simple to understand addition to these RPi competitors that would make them very useful for a number of key applications, that nearly always seems to be missing, namely... a SATA connector. It would be really handy for both NAS boxes and media centres.

<comment><USER10> You should check Olinuxino Lime[1] if you're looking for SATA connectivity. It costs 30 EUR and is open source hardware.

[1] [https://www.olimex.com/Products/OLinuXino/A10/A10-OLinuXino-...](https://www.olimex.com/Products/OLinuXino/A10/A10-OLinuXino- LIME/open-source-hardware)

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER11> I run a Lisp web server at home on an ODROID-XU.

[http://lispm.de/ccl](http://lispm.de/ccl)

The ODROID is much faster than a Raspberry Pi. Basically an U3 runs native Common Lisp ten times faster than the RPi.

I now have an XU, an X2 and the U3. The U3 is the best: small, no fan, silent, fast - and a bit cheaper.

<comment><USER12> > ten times faster

With single-threaded tests or when using all cores?

<comment><USER11> single

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER13> I own one. I prefer the Raspberry Pi.

\- Running Android seems .. useless without a touch device. Tried it, was basically useless for me.

\- Running various Linux distributions was not nice either:

* (Fixable) The community projects feel a lot less polished than anything the Pi has

* (Unfixable) The HDMI port sucks. On all TVs I connected it to I have under-/overscan issues. There are no boot options similar to the Pi that allow me to fix that. The IRC channel suggested to 'Fix the TV'...

Looks nice, cheap, interesting specs, but collects dust over here.

<comment><USER14> I found it to be pretty much the same. Initial set up was very convoluted compared to the Pi. Community resources were scarce and I basically had to fudge an Arch install without much guidance.

However it has superseded my Pi (HTTP/Torrent/SMB/DLNA Media server) which was running Raspbian and it's a lot faster at doing it.

<comment><USER13> Is yours running headless though? The HDMI issue was my biggest problem.

<comment><USER14> It is headless yeah, I have other devices to play media files from it through the network.

</comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER15> I'm using the predecessor ODROID-U2 as a small home server. It runs Linux (Ubuntu via Linaro IIRC) and I've never had a problem with software I need not being available because it's ARM instead of x86. Basically, it rocks. Do get the MMC adapter and USB cable for setup, and have fun.

</comment><comment><USER16> Why do so many devices favour mini and micro HDMI ports like some kind of miniaturization fetish? Yet they determined they had enough room on their PCB for three full size USB ports.

It just forces everyone to add a mandatory adapter or adapter-cable into their shopping carts.

<comment><USER17> Because it is somewhat likely to be used in a headless mode. For an application I chose the U2 for size was an absolute priority (even considered removing the USB and ethernet ports and soldering wires to the boards), and HDMI was completely pointless.

<comment><USER16> Maybe these boards should have no ports on PCB and have headers for everything?

We could even define a standard and... oh no, it's ATX all over again :-/

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER18> No OpenBSD support, closed source graphics, blob ridden.

The performance/price is awesome and I guess it's cool if you can get it to work for whatever you have in mind. But I prefer supporting a platform that contributes upstream and promotes a proper open work ethic.

Beaglebone Black for me although the performance is nowhere near this.

<comment><USER19> Yep, you are right. Because all ARM boards supports OpenBSD.

And the PVR GPU on BBB is of course the most friendly GPU.

<comment><USER18> Dedicated account to astroturf Odroid?

<comment><USER19> Nope.. Just didn't knew the site until someone linked it to me.

</comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER20> The hardkernel team hit it out of the park with the U3.

Better specs than the U2, better form factor, and CHEAPER than the U2. You don't see that much nowadays.

The processing power alone is significant, compared to the other options on the market, and they've added support for GPIO to the U3.

</comment><comment><USER21> Every once in a while I really consider how much, say, my parents and grandparents paid for computer processing power (grandfather's C64 at ~ $500, our first PC running a 386 at $1100) and compare it to the torrent of amount of memory, processing speed, etc. that's shooting out of the Earth now.

It's astonishing, Moore's Law (and variants) not withstanding.

We know there is some limit to Moore's Law, but I have a hard time really wrapping my head around what kind of nano computing we'll have available for pennies in a decade.

<comment><USER22> Video and games are the only consumer tasks (that I can think of) that drive the consumer technology further. Pretty much everything else already runs fast on the previous gen hardware.

When it comes to video, even my wife's slow netbook can play 1080p MKVs without stuttering. 4K can be played and recorded by current gen hardware.

So it looks like games will drive the hardware improvements.

<comment><USER23> At the moment, maybe, but look at the recent post about a plugin that does automatic background OCR for every image in a browser.

That kind of "processing the ambient environment all the time, just in case you might need some part of it" is going to thrive when computing power allows it.

Permanent background face recognition, just in case there's a face in any picture. Permanent background face identity checking just in case you know them. Permanent audio speech recognition. Permanent searching of all sorts of things to find contextually relevant information. Permanent local analysis trying to work out "what's going on" and "what mood are you in" and "what are you working on" and "is now a bad time to interrupt?".

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER24> Raspberry Pi on steroids? Looks like a better host for my home media server. Main site is down - some info here [http://liliputing.com/2013/12/odroid-u3-59-dev-board-with- th...](http://liliputing.com/2013/12/odroid-u3-59-dev-board-with-the-power-of- a-galaxy-s3.html)

<comment><USER25> more like a miniaturized PC. The nice thing about the Pi is that it has the header with all those nice peripherals, i2c, GPIO, serial, etc... It doesn't look like this has those out of the box.

</comment></comment><comment><USER26> I'd like to try out building my own router on a hobbyist budget. Are there any cheap SoC type devices like that come with dual rj45 ethernet ports?

It seems to be a common trait that all the sub-$100 USD SoC devices have one rj45 port.

<comment><USER27> These might end up costing somewhat over $100, but they make nice little routers.

[http://www.pcengines.ch/apu.htm](http://www.pcengines.ch/apu.htm)

[http://www.pcengines.ch/alix.htm](http://www.pcengines.ch/alix.htm)

<comment><USER28> My god, that website looks horrible. A stylesheet, a stylesheet, my kingdom for a stylesheet!

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER29> As its name somewhat hints at, this looks like the SoC from a Galaxy S3 in a RPi-like form factor. A quick Google brought up a pretty detailed 900+ page datasheet for the SoC, so they're ahead of the RPi in openness already.

<comment><USER30> And yet Raspberry Pi has had hardware-accelerated video decoding since the beginning, while Mali 400 (introduced with A9) still doesn't have it.

<comment><USER29> The Exynos has a hardware video codec, it's separate from the GPU.

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER31> I love seeing all of these cheap ARM boards coming on to the market. I am a big fan of the BeagleBone Black but the supply problems recently have had me looking around for an alternative. Unfortunately my project uses the USB device port and there don't seem to be alternatives that offer USB device or OTG support.

Am I the only one who wants OTG support? Or are there boards with USB OTG ports that I have missed?

<comment><USER31> To answer my own question - this board (the ODROID) has a USB 2.0 OTG port.

</comment></comment><comment><USER32> If you're running a PHP site, please, please turn off display_errors. It's really bad practice to have your PHP code dumping your query strings to the web when you have a failure.

<comment><USER33> If they cared about best practices for PHP they wouldn't be using mysql_real_escape_string().

</comment></comment><comment><USER34> Still waiting for the A15 based boards to drop in price so I can attempt to get an openstack/ARM cloud up and running. Just for the hell of it.

</comment><comment><USER35> The site is not working anymore. I can't finish my purchase :/

And .. is it really showing username and password of their mysql?

<comment><USER33> Google tells me 아니오 translates to "not" so they're probably not using a password.

That's... that page makes me sad.

</comment></comment><comment><USER36> doing armlinux for a living, these sub-100 devices pop up daily nowadays, I was thinking yesterday probably it's a good idea to set up a small site to list all of them.

the primary ones are : TI AM335x(beaglebone), Freescale iMX6, Allwinner A20. all the three have SATA, HDMI, Android,etc

</comment><comment><USER37> This board will be the next part to my home fanless network. It will be running RabbitMQ and pgSQL

</comment><comment><USER38> I am using one of these right now. Pretty fun.

</comment><comment><USER39> It says traffic limit reached

</comment><comment><USER40> board = $59 shipping = ANOTHER $50

<comment><USER11> $59 is just the board. Add the eMMC card, shipping, tax, customs, ...

Well, I paid for it. Was worth it for me.

</comment></comment><comment><USER41> Plus $25 shipping. Ugh. Also no gigabit ethernet is a massive fail.

Just wait for a cheap board with a CPU in the AMD A1100 series, it seriously rocks.

</comment><comment><USER42> I need something like this for a test server. It has similar resources to what I allocate for my VMs. 25$ shipping is a deal-breaker though and I'm also not sure if it would get past the EU customs problem-free.

<comment><USER43> > get past the EU customs problem-free.

Stop being a free-loader. All this social welfare has to be paid by someone. You have money to spend on toys - pay your taxes.

<comment><USER42> Well, this is frustrating.

I didn't mean that I want to be a freeloader. "Problem-free" doesn't mean "free". I just had too many problems making them believe that the my stuff aren't newly purchased from the country I'm returning from[0]. Also when I do purchase something, it's very hard to convince them that I actually did purchase it for the price I declared. I believe I'm also entitled to purchase stuff below X euros without import tax (IANAL, though), but so many people around me had so much problems with the customs that I don't even try.

Customs processes aren't as simple as "pay the duties and be happy". From what I see and go through, they can be extremely annoying and complicated.

So, you see, it is actually only you, talking about not paying taxes. I see that some also suggested illegal workarounds to my problem. Honestly, no, thanks and I'm also not responsible for what they say.

I hope you don't accuse people with theft so easily when you're talking straight to their faces.

[0]: In one case, they didn't allow me to go through with the camera I purchased from Germany when I was returning from the US. I had to open Canon's web site to prove them that Canon uses a different model name in the US therefore it wouldn't be possible to purchase it from the US. They were still complaining while letting me go. Now I keep the receipt in my bag if I'm carrying a shiny new gear.</comment></comment></comment>